Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

PubMed

Cassou, Christophe

2008-09-25

Bridging the traditional gap between the spatio-temporal scales of weather and climate is a significant challenge facing the atmospheric community. In particular, progress in both medium-range and seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction relies on our understanding of recurrent weather patterns and the identification of specific causes responsible for their favoured occurrence, persistence or transition. Within this framework, I here present evidence that the main climate intra-seasonal oscillation in the tropics-the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)-controls part of the distribution and sequences of the four daily weather regimes defined over the North Atlantic-European region in winter. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regimes are the most affected, allowing for medium-range predictability of their phase far exceeding the limit of around one week that is usually quoted. The tropical-extratropical lagged relationship is asymmetrical. Positive NAO events mostly respond to a mid-latitude low-frequency wave train initiated by the MJO in the western-central tropical Pacific and propagating eastwards. Precursors for negative NAO events are found in the eastern tropical Pacific-western Atlantic, leading to changes along the North Atlantic storm track. Wave-breaking diagnostics tend to support the MJO preconditioning and the role of transient eddies in setting the phase of the NAO. I present a simple statistical model to quantitatively assess the potential predictability of the daily NAO index or the sign of the NAO regimes when they occur. Forecasts are successful in approximately 70 per cent of the cases based on the knowledge of the previous approximately 12-day MJO phase used as a predictor. This promising skill could be of importance considering the tight link between weather regimes and both mean conditions and the chances of extreme events occurring over Europe. These findings are useful for further stressing the need to better simulate and forecast the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics, which is a source of medium-to-long range predictability and is the Achilles' heel of the current seamless prediction suites.

Contrasting spatial structures of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation between observations and slab ocean model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Xue, Jiaqing; Li, Xiang

2018-04-01

The spatial structure of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is analyzed and compared between the observations and simulations from slab ocean models (SOMs) and fully coupled models. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of AMO is characterized by a basin-wide monopole structure, and there is a significantly high degree of spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across the entire North Atlantic basin. The observed SST anomalies share a common decadal-scale signal, corresponding to the basin-wide average (i. e., the AMO). In contrast, the simulated AMO in SOMs (AMOs) exhibits a tripole-like structure, with the mid-latitude North Atlantic SST showing an inverse relationship with other parts of the basin, and the SOMs fail to reproduce the observed strong spatial coherence of decadal SST variations associated with the AMO. The observed spatial coherence of AMO SST anomalies is identified as a key feature that can be used to distinguish the AMO mechanism. The tripole-like SST pattern of AMOs in SOMs can be largely explained by the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism due to the surface heat flux changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The thermodynamic forcing of AMOs by the NAO gives rise to a simultaneous inverse NAO-AMOs relationship at both interannual and decadal timescales and a seasonal phase locking of the AMOs variability to the cold season. However, the NAO-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the observed NAO-AMO relationship and the seasonal phase locking of observed AMO variability to the warm season. At decadal timescales, a strong lagged relationship between NAO and AMO is observed, with the NAO leading by up to two decades, while the simultaneous correlation of NAO with AMO is weak. This lagged relationship and the spatial coherence of AMO can be well understood from the view point of ocean dynamics. A time-integrated NAO index, which reflects the variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and northward ocean heat transport caused by the accumulated effect of NAO forcing, reasonably well captures the observed multidecadal fluctuations in the AMO. Further analysis using the fully coupled model simulations provides direct modeling evidence that the observed spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across North Atlantic basin can be reproduced only by including the AMOC-related ocean dynamics, and the AMOC acts as a common forcing signal that results in a spatially coherent variation of North Atlantic SST.

Volcanic forcing of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the last 2,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breitenbach, Sebastian F. M.; Ridley, Harriet E.; Lechleitner, Franziska A.; Asmerom, Yemane; Rehfeld, Kira; Prufer, Keith M.; Kennett, Douglas J.; Aquino, Valorie V.; Polyak, Victor; Goswami, Bedartha; Marwan, Norbert; Haug, Gerald H.; Baldini, James U. L.

2015-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a principal mode of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic realm (Hurrell et al. 2003) and influences rainfall distribution over Europe, North Africa and North America. Although observational data inform us on multi-annual variability of the NAO, long and detailed paleoclimate datasets are required to understand the mechanisms and full range of its variability and the spatial extent of its influence. Chronologies of available proxy-based NAO reconstructions are often interdependent and cover only the last ~1,100 years, while longer records are characterized by low sampling resolution and chronological constraints. This complicates the reconstruction of regional responses to NAO changes. We present data from a 2,000 year long sub-annual carbon isotope record from speleothem YOK-I from Yok Balum Cave, Belize, Central America. YOK-I has been extensively dated using U-series (Kennett et al. 2012). Monitoring shows that stalagmite δ13C in Yok Balum cave is governed by infiltration changes associated with tropical wet season rainfall. Higher (lower) δ13C values reflect drier (wetter) conditions related to Intertropical Convergence Zone position and trade winds intensity. Comparison with NAO reconstructions (Proctor et al. 2000, Trouet et al. 2009, Wassenburg et al. 2013) reveals that YOK-I δ13C sensitively records NAO-related rainfall dynamics over Belize. The Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) of δ13C extends NAO reconstructions to the last 2,000 years and indicates that high latitude volcanic aerosols force negative NAO phases. We infer that volcanic aerosols modify inter-hemispheric temperature contrasts at multi-annual scale, resulting in meridional relocation of the ITCZ and the Bermuda-Azores High, altering NAO and tropical rainfall patterns. Decade-long dry periods in the 11th and the late 18th century relate to major high northern latitude eruptions and exemplify the climatic response to volcanic forcing by reorganization of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. References Hurrell et al. (2003) An Overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Monogr. 134 Kennett & Breitenbach et al. (2012) Development and Disintegration of Maya Political Systems in Response to Climate Change. Science 338, 788-791 Proctor et al. (2000) A thousand year speleothem proxy record of North Atlantic climate from Scotland. Clim. Dyn. 16, 815-820 Trouet et al. (2009) Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 324, 78-80 Wassenburg et al. (2013) Moroccan speleothem and tree ring records suggest a variable positive state of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Medieval Warm Period. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 375, 291-302

A multiproxy reconstruction of NAO evolution in the Azores archipelago since 1350 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Doolittle, Sara; Bao, Roberto; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Rubio-Inglés, Maria J.; Sánchez-López, Guiomar; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Gonçalves, Vitor; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Marques, Helena S.; Sáez, Alberto; Giralt, Santiago

2014-05-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main atmospheric circulation pattern affecting climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, having a major impact on both marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Instrumental records of the NAO are relatively short, and therefore paleoenvironmental multiproxy approaches become fundamental to better understand its behaviour for longer scale periods. The NAO is often defined as a large-scale meridional oscillation dipole of air pressure between the Azores High and the Iceland Low. Some of the NAO definitions include the use of sea level pressure from Ponta Delgada station in Azores, and thus any NAO reconstruction would gain in robustness if it includes paleoenvironmental information from this archipelago located at the southern end of the meridional dipole that characterizes the NAO pattern. However, to the best of our knowledge, very few historical and long-term reconstructions have been conducted in the Azores Islands. We present a ca. 600-year-long multiproxy reconstruction of the NAO evolution based on facies analysis, X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter and the preliminary study of diatom and chironomid content from the sedimentary record of Lake Empadadas (37° 49' N - 25° 44' W, Azores Archipelago, Portugal). The precipitation regime in Azores Archipelago (i.e. intra and inter-annual variability) is clearly influenced by the NAO index, thus periods with dominant positive NAO index values (NAO+) are usually characterized by low winter precipitation in the Azores. Conversely, negative NAO phases (NAO-) induce high winter precipitation in the archipelago. These patterns suggest that past (winter) precipitation changes on the Azores may be partially used as a proxy for NAO changes, and thus a proxy for more large-scale changes in the North Atlantic region. According to this multiproxy characterization of the Lake Empadadas sediments four main climatic (and NAO) stages since 600 cal years BP have been established. The first stage (1350-1460 AD) correspond to dark-brown to black mud facies with high values in lake productivity and moderately shallow waters, which however represent the deepest condition during the studied interval. Mineralogical composition and high organic matter content also suggest a humid climate with abundant precipitations that might be related to a predominantly NAO- phase. The second stage, spanning between 1460 and 1800 AD, is represented by a similar facies presented by the previous phase. This stage is however characterized by a transitional period from a wet to more arid climate, probably related to a change in NAO conditions (from NAO- to NAO+), with lower values of lake productivity and lake level than the previous stage. From 1800 AD until 1930 AD (third stage) banded brown to pale-brown silty and muddy facies were deposited. During this stage the lowest lake water table and productivity in the whole sequence were reached suggesting a predominantly NAO+ phase in concordance with instrumental NAO records. However, heavy rainfall catastrophic events are recorded in the sequence as very coarse (gravely) alluvial intervals that may be related with intense NAO- negative winters or alternatively to autumn Tropical Storms that can reach the archipelago. Finally, the uppermost interval of the sequence is composed by brown to ochre massive mud. A lake level rise and a progressive increase in the productivity suggest a relatively humid fourth stage from AD 1930 until present, a period characterized with more NAO- values.

Impacts of the EA and SCA patterns on the 20th century NAO-winter precipitation relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, Laia; McDermott, Frank

2013-04-01

Much of the 20th century multi-decadal variability in the NAO-winter precipitation relationship over the N. Atlantic / European sector can be ascribed to the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and either the East Atlantic pattern (EA) or the Scandinavian pattern (SCA). The NAO, EA and SCA indices employed here are defined as the three leading vectors of the cross-correlation matrix calculated from monthly sea-level pressure anomalies for 138 complete winters from the 20CRv2 dataset (Compo et al., 2011). Winter precipitation data over Europe for the entire 20th century is derived from the high resolution CRU-TS3.1 climate dataset (Mitchell and Jones, 2005). Here we document for the first time, that different NAO/EA and NAO/SCA combinations systematically influence winter precipitation conditions in Europe as a consequence of NAO dipole migrations. We find that the zero-correlated line of the NAO-winter precipitation relationship migrates southwards when the EA is in the opposite phase to the NAO. This can be related to a south-westwards migration of the NAO dipole under these conditions, as shown by teleconnectivity maps. Similarly, a clockwise movement of the NAO-winter climate correlated areas occurs when the phase of the SCA is opposite to that of the NAO, reflecting a clockwise movement of the NAO dipole under these conditions. An important implication of these migrations is that they influence the spatial and temporal stationarity of climate-NAO relationships. As a result, the link between winter precipitation patterns and the NAO is not straightforward in some regions such as the southern UK, Ireland and France. For instance, much of the inter-annual variability in the N-S winter precipitation gradient in the UK, originally attributed to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of the NAO, reflects the migration of the NAO dipole, linked to linear combinations of the NAO and the EA. Our results indicate that when the N-S winter precipitation gradient is accentuated by the occurrence of a positive EA during positive NAO winters, drier conditions than normal are found in the southern UK. This is consistent, for example, with the severe winter drought of 1976, when computed NAO and EA indices were both positive (0.97 and 1.87, respectively), illustrating the modulating effect of NAO/EA combinations on winter precipitation patterns in the southern UK. References: Compo GP et al. 2011. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137 (654), 1-28. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method for constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.

The North Atlantic Oscillation Reconstructed at Bermuda for 220 Years Using Sr/Ca Ratios in Diploria labyrinthiformis (brain coral)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodkin, N. F.; Hughen, K. A.; Cohen, A. L.; Curry, W. B.; Doney, S. C.

2006-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a meridional oscillation in atmospheric mass measured by pressure anomalies between Iceland (65°N, 23°W) and the Azores (38°N, 26°W) (Hurrell, 1995). Changes between the positive and negative phase of the NAO strongly influence weather patterns across the US, Europe and the Middle East. A shift in recent decades toward a sustained positive NAO has raised questions about the influence of greenhouse gas emissions on this system. Unfortunately, instrumental records are too short to identify the natural baseline variability of the NAO, and NAO reconstructions generally encompass only land-based proxies, excluding ocean processes. Winter-time sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Sargasso Sea have previously been shown to correlate to the NAO (Visbeck et al., 2001), and thus a long winter SST record based on proxy data could be used to reconstruct NAO variability back in time. Here we present an annually resolved winter-time strontium to calcium ratio (Sr/Ca) record from a 220-year old brain coral (Diploria labyrinthiformis) collected from the south shore of Bermuda. Brain coral is prevalent in Bermuda and shows distinct annual banding in its skeleton providing precise age models. Winter-time coral Sr/Ca has previously been shown to accurately record winter SST free from growth rate influences (Goodkin et al., 2005), and that relationship is confirmed here. Cross-spectral analysis between winter-time coral Sr/Ca and four instrumental and proxy records of the NAO (Hurrell, 1995, Jones et al., 1997, Luterbacher et al., 2001, Cook et al., 2002) show two frequencies of coherence with >95% confidence. At periods greater than 20 years and between 3 and 5 years, the coral Sr/Ca effectively captures the NAO variability. Filtering the coral record to these frequencies and comparing to the instrumental and proxy records, including another marine-based NAO reconstruction from the North and Norwegian Seas (Schoene et al., 2003), show strong agreement and provide information about the differences between high and low frequency responses to the NAO. At high frequencies, SST at Bermuda shows a positive correlation to the NAO, as predicted by the tri-pole SST response (Visbeck et al., 2001), and succeeds well at capturing amplitude variability. At low frequencies, however, Bermuda SST shows a negative correlation to the NAO, different than the response predicted by the high frequency tri-pole pattern. One possible explanation for this shift is a response to changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which is believed to show variability at lower frequencies (Curry et al., 2003) and which may be driving changes in both SST and the NAO. Over 50 years during the late 20th century warming (1950-1999), the amplitude of the Sr/Ca-based NAO record at 3-5 year periods is 20% greater than that found during an equivalent interval at the end of the LIA (1800- 1849). Low-frequency (20-50 year) variability also appears larger during the second half of the 20th century, compared to the LIA. These results indicate a change in NAO variability at different mean temperatures, with larger amplitude changes during warmer climates. However, a sustained positive NAO during the late LIA does not appear to support the hypothesis of a linear relationship between mean NAO and mean hemispheric temperature, as observed during the late 20th century warming.

The lagged connection of the positive NAO with the MJO phase 3 in a simplified atmospheric model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Xiaolu; Song, Jie; Li, Shuanglin

2018-03-01

Based on a simplified nonlinear model and reanalysis data, the lagged connection of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winters is investigated. The positive NAO is observed to occur more frequently about 8-20 days after the onset of the MJO phase 3. A series of heating forcing experiments and initial-value experiments are conducted by utilizing the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) dynamical core atmospheric model. The extratropical responses to the tropical heating associated with the MJO phase 3 are characterized by a wave train over the Pacific-North American region with an anticyclone anomaly over the northeastern Pacific and then followed by a positive-NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic sector. These circulation anomalies generally match the observed lagged-connection well. At the earlier stage, the Rossby wave train excited by the MJO convection propagates into the North Atlantic, leading to a planetary wave anomaly with a low-over-high dipole prior to the positive NAO. At the later stage, the anomalous synoptic eddy vorticity forcing (EVF) streamfunction tendency has a negative-over-positive dipole, which plays a key role in the development of the positive NAO. Further analysis of the initial-value experiments indicates that, for the subsequent formation of the positive NAO, the anomalous circulation over the Indian Ocean aroused by the MJO phase 3 is more crucial than that over the northeastern Pacific.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on European tropospheric composition: an observational and modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pope, R.; Chipperfield, M.

2017-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong influence on winter-time North Atlantic and European circulation patterns. Under the positive phase of the NAO (NAO+), intensification of the climatological Icelandic low and Azores high pressure systems results in strong westerly flow across the Atlantic into Europe. Under the NAO negative phase (NAO-), there is a weakening of this meridional pressure gradient resulting in a southerly shift in the westerlies flow towards the sub-tropical Atlantic. Therefore, NAO+ and NAO- introduce unstable stormy and drier stable conditions into Europe, respectively. Under NAO+ conditions, the strong westerlies tend to enhance transport of European pollution (e.g. nitrogen oxides) away from anthropogenic source regions. While during NAO-, the more stable conditions lead to a build up of pollutants. However, secondary pollutants (i.e. tropospheric ozone) show the opposite signal where NAO+, while transporting primary pollutants away, introduces Atlantic ozone enriched air into Europe. Here ozone can form downwind of pollution from continental North America and be transported into Europe via the westerly flow. Under NAO-, this westerly ozone transport is reduced yielding lower European ozone concentrations also depleted further by ozone loss through the reaction with NOx, which has accumulated over the continent. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), observed in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS) by satellite, peaks over Iceland/Southern Greenland in NAO-, between 200-100 hPa, consistent with trapping by an anticyclone at this altitude. During NAO+, PAN is enhanced over the sub-tropical Atlantic and Arctic. Model simulations show that enhanced PAN over Iceland/Southern Greenland in NAO- is associated with vertical transport from the troposphere into the UTLS, while peak Arctic PAN in NAO+ is its accumulation given the strong northerly meridional transport in the UTLS. UTLS ozone spatial anomalies, relative to the winter-time average, are anti-correlated with that of PAN. Even though PAN is a source of NOx, which can influence the ozone budget chemically, we show here that these anti-correlations are likely linked primary to UTLS circulation and troposphere-stratosphere exchanges.

Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

2015-02-01

We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

2009-08-01

Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal, for instance, spatial asymmetries between different phases of the NAO that are likely important for ecological studies. It also follows that there is no universally accepted index to describe the temporal evolution of the NAO. Several of the most common measures are presented and compared. All reveal that there is no preferred time scale of variability for the NAO: large changes occur from one winter to the next and from one decade to the next. There is also a large amount of within-season variability in the patterns of atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic, so that most winters cannot be characterized solely by a canonical NAO structure. A better understanding of how the NAO responds to external forcing, including sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, stratospheric influences, and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is crucial to the current debate on climate variability and change.

North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara

2010-02-01

Marine ecosystems are undergoing rapid change at local and global scales. To understand these changes, including the relative roles of natural variability and anthropogenic effects, and to predict the future state of marine ecosystems requires quantitative understanding of the physics, biogeochemistry and ecology of oceanic systems at mechanistic levels. Central to this understanding is the role played by dominant patterns or "modes" of atmospheric and oceanic variability, which orchestrate coherent variations in climate over large regions with profound impacts on ecosystems. We review the spatial structure of extratropical climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere and, specifically, focus on modes of climate variability over the extratropical North Atlantic. A leading pattern of weather and climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO refers to a redistribution of atmospheric mass between the Arctic and the subtropical Atlantic, and swings from one phase to another producing large changes in surface air temperature, winds, storminess and precipitation over the Atlantic as well as the adjacent continents. The NAO also affects the ocean through changes in heat content, gyre circulations, mixed layer depth, salinity, high latitude deep water formation and sea ice cover. Thus, indices of the NAO have become widely used to document and understand how this mode of variability alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. There is no unique way, however, to define the NAO. Several approaches are discussed including both linear (e.g., principal component analysis) and nonlinear (e.g., cluster analysis) techniques. The former, which have been most widely used, assume preferred atmospheric circulation states come in pairs, in which anomalies of opposite polarity have the same spatial structure. In contrast, nonlinear techniques search for recurrent patterns of a specific amplitude and sign. They reveal, for instance, spatial asymmetries between different phases of the NAO that are likely important for ecological studies. It also follows that there is no universally accepted index to describe the temporal evolution of the NAO. Several of the most common measures are presented and compared. All reveal that there is no preferred time scale of variability for the NAO: large changes occur from one winter to the next and from one decade to the next. There is also a large amount of within-season variability in the patterns of atmospheric circulation of the North Atlantic, so that most winters cannot be characterized solely by a canonical NAO structure. A better understanding of how the NAO responds to external forcing, including sea surface temperature changes in the tropics, stratospheric influences, and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, is crucial to the current debate on climate variability and change.

The changing relationship between the December North Atlantic Oscillation and the following February East Asian trough before and after the late 1980s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Guolin; Zou, Meng; Qiao, Shaobo; Zhi, Rong; Gong, Zhiqiang

2018-03-01

This study investigates the changing relationship between the December North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the following February East Asian trough (EAT) throughout the past 60 years. We found that the relationship between the December NAO and the following February EAT is significantly enhanced after the late 1980s compared with the period before the late 1980s. The changing relationship mainly results from the enhanced relationship between the December NAO and the following February North Atlantic mid-latitudes' sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (NAMA) during the same period. During the period after the late 1980s, the persistent positive (negative) NAO pattern from December to the following January contributes to a positive (negative) NAMA, which reaches its maximum magnitude in the following February and excites an anomalous wave train along the North Atlantic and northern Eurasia, and significantly impacts the EAT. During the period before the late 1980s, the positive (negative) NAO pattern during December cannot persist into the following January, and the related positive (negative) NAMA is insignificant during the following February, causing the response of the simultaneous EAT to be insignificant as well. Moreover, there exists a significant impact of the December NAO on the December-January NAMA after the late 1980s, while the December-January NAMA is relatively less affected by the December NAO before the late 1980s. As a result, the simultaneous response of the atmospheric circulation anomalies to the December-January NAMA are evident before the late 1980s, and the positive (negative) NAMA can excite an anomalous wave train along the North Atlantic and northern Eurasia and significantly deepen (shallow) the downstream EAT. By contrast, after involving a feature of atmosphere forcing of SST, the simultaneous feedback of the December-January NAMA on EAT is significantly decreased after the 1980s.

Temperature-precipitation relationship of the Common Era in northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luoto, Tomi P.; Nevalainen, Liisa

2018-05-01

Due to the lack of knowledge on dynamics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to the last millennium, synchronized records of air temperature and precipitation variability are needed to understand large-scale drivers of the hydroclimate. Here, we use completely synchronized paleolimnological proxy-based records of air temperature and effective precipitation from two Scandinavian lakes with ˜2000-year sediment profiles. We show that the relationship between air temperature and precipitation (T/P ratio) is synchronous in both study sites throughout the records suggesting warm and dry conditions at ˜300-1100 CE and cold and wet conditions at ˜1200-1900 CE. Owing to the significantly increased air temperatures, the most recent T/P ratio has again turned positive. During the first millennium of the Common Era, the T/P mimics patterns in Southern Oscillation index, whereas the second millennium shows response to the NAO index but is also concurrent with solar irradiance shifts. Since our T/P reconstruction is mostly linked with the NAO, we propose the T/P ratio as an indicator of the NAO. Our results from the coherent records provide first-time knowledge on the long-term temperature-precipitation relationship in Northern Europe that increase understanding of the comprehensive hydroclimate system in the region and the NAO dynamics also further back in time.

North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant variability mode for the winter climate of the North Atlantic sector. During a positive (negative) NAO phase, the sea level pressure (SLP) difference between the subtropical Azores high and the subpolar Icelandic low is anomalously strong (weak). This affects, for example, temperature, precipitation, wind, and surface heat flux over the North Atlantic, and over large parts of Europe. In observations we find enhanced sub-decadal variability of the NAO index that goes along with a dipolar sea surface temperature (SST) pattern. The corresponding SLP and SST patterns are reproduced in a control experiment of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Large-scale air-sea interaction is suggested to be essential for the North Atlantic sub-decadal variability in the KCM. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) plays a key role, setting the timescale of the variability by providing a delayed negative feedback to the NAO. The interplay of the NAO and the AMOC on the sub-decadal timescale is further investigated in the CMIP5 model ensemble. For example, the average CMIP5 model AMOC pattern associated with sub-decadal variability is characterized by a deep-reaching dipolar structure, similar to the KCM's sub-decadal AMOC variability pattern. The results suggest that dynamical air-sea interactions are crucial to generate enhanced sub-decadal variability in the North Atlantic climate.

The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation throughout the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wassenburg, Jasper; Dietrich, Stephan; Fietzke, Jan; Fohlmeister, Jens; Wei, Wei; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Richter, Detlev; Sabaoui, Abdellah; Lohmann, Gerrit; Andreae, Meinrat; Immenhauser, Adrian

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a major impact on Northern Hemisphere winter climate. Trouet et al. (2009) reconstructed the NAO for the last millennium based on a Moroccan tree ring PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) reconstruction and a Scottish speleothem record. More recently, Olsen et al. (2012) extended the NAO record back to 5.2 ka BP based on a lake record from West Greenland. It is, however, well known that the NAO exhibits non-stationary behavior and the use of a single location for a NAO reconstruction may not capture the complete variability. In addition, the imprint of the NAO on European rainfall patterns in the Early and Mid Holocene on (multi-) centennial timescales is still largely unknown. This is related to difficulties in establishing robust correlations between different proxy records and the fact that proxies may not only reflect winter conditions (i.e., the season when the NAO has the largest influence). Here we present a precisely dated, high resolution speleothem δ18O record from NW Morocco covering the complete Early and Mid Holocene. Carbon and oxygen isotopes were measured at a resolution of 15 years. A multi-proxy approach provides solid evidence that speleothem δ18O values reflect changes in past rainfall intensity. The Moroccan record shows a significant correlation with a speleothem rainfall record from western Germany, which covers the entire Holocene (Fohlmeister et al., 2012). The combination with the extended speleothem record from Scotland, speleothem records from north Italy and the NAO reconstruction from West Greenland (Olsen et al., 2012) allows us to study the variability of the NAO during the entire Holocene. The relation between West German and Northwest Moroccan rainfall has not been stationary, which is evident from the changing signs of correlation. The Early Holocene is characterized by a positive correlation, which changes between 9 and 8 ka BP into a negative correlation. Simulations with the state-of-the-art earth system model COSMOS for the Early and Mid Holocene (Wei and Lohmann, 2012) indicate that this change in the NAO teleconnection is related to large-scale circulation changes due to the ice sheet configuration and deglaciation. References: Fohlmeister, J., Schroder-Ritzrau, A., Scholz, D., Riechelmann, D.F.C., Mudelsee, M., Wackerbarth, A., Gerdes, A., Riechelmann, S., Immenhauser, A., Richter, D.K., Mangini, A., 2012. Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability. Climate of the Past 8, 1751-1764. Olsen, J., Anderson, J.N., Knudsen, M.F., 2012. Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past 5,200 years. Nature Geoscience DOI:10.1038/NGEO1589, Trouet, V., Esper, J., Graham, N.E., Baker, A., Scourse, J.D., Frank, D.C., 2009. Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 324, 78-80. Wei, W., Lohmann, G., 2012. Simulated Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the Holocene. Journal of Climate 6989-7002.

Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacer, Sara; Christoudias, Theodoros; Pozzer, Andrea

2016-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. Similarly to other works, the model shows a future northeastward shift of the NAO centres of action and a weak positive trend of the NAO index (over 150 years). Moreover, we find that NAO trends (computed over periods shorter than 30 years) will continue to oscillate between positive and negative values in the future. To investigate the NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at the end of the century, the south-western Mediterranean and northern Africa will, during positive NAO phases, see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past, while a wider part of northern Europe will, during positive NAO phases, see lower pollutant concentrations. Such results are confirmed by the changes observed in the future for tracer concentration and vertically integrated tracer transport, differentiating the cases of "high NAO" and "low NAO" events.

The Caspian Sea Catchment influenced by Atlantic Teleconnections in CESM1.2.2 and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandini, S. D.; Prange, M.; Schulz, M.

2017-12-01

The Caspian Sea (CS) is the world's largest inland sea and located within a closed (endorheic) drainage basin [ 37°-47N, 47°-54°E]. It has undergone dynamic variations (>3 m) during the past century with huge impacts on the economy, ecosystem and livelihood of coastal people. The origin of these variations as well as future changes are disputable. Here, we examine the impact of the major seasonal North Atlantic teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic pattern (EA) on Caspian hydroclimate variability from 1850-2100 CE. Five Numerical experiments at different atmospheric grid resolutions (2° and 1°) and atmospheric model versions (CAM4 and CAM5) are carried out with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2). Results reveal the 1° CESM1.2.2 CAM5 captures DJF NAO (46.5%) and EA (13.4%), agreeing well with observational data (1850-2000). The DJF NAO has a strong influence on the DJF temperature, rainfall and evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) over the Caspian sub-basins (Volga, Ural, Terek and Kura). Furthermore, 1° model climate projections (2020-2100 CE) are performed with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to examine likely changes in the NAO and EA and their influence on the Caspian catchment. The NAO under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios remains the leading mode with the highest variance and influences E-P with increased precipitation over the Volga basin and increased evaporation over the Caspian Sea. The above canceling effects act on the hydroclimate variability in the Caspian sub-basins. Moreover, it is indicated that no substantial change is predicted in the CSL by the year 2100. Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), CESM1.2.2 resolutions, Evaporation minus Precipitation (E-P), RCP4.5, RCP8.5

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Thiéblemont, Rémi; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Kodera, Kunihiko; Hansen, Felicitas

2015-09-15

Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

2014-05-01

Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power output at a local level and a tool that wind farm developers could use to inform site selection. A particular priority was to assess how the potential wind power outputs over a 25-30 year windfarm lifetime in less windy, but resource-stable regions, compare with those from windier but more variable sites.

Linking North Atlantic Teleconnections to Latitudinal Variability of Wave Climate Along the North American Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provancha, C.; Adams, P. N.; Hegermiller, C.; Storlazzi, C. D.

2015-12-01

Shoreline change via coastal erosion and accretion is largely influenced by variations in ocean wave climate. Identifying the sources of these variations is challenging because the timing of wave energy delivery varies over multiple timescales within ocean basins. We present the results of an investigation of USACE Wave Information Studies hindcast hourly wave heights, periods, and directions along the North American Atlantic coast from 1980-2012, designed to explore links between wave climate and teleconnection patterns. Trends in median and extreme significant wave heights (SWHs) demonstrate that mean monthly SWHs increased from 1 to 5 cm/yr along the roughly 3000 km reach of study area, with changes in hurricane season waves appearing to be most influential in producing the overall trends. Distributions of SWHs categorized by North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase, show that positive-period NAO SWHs are greater than negative-period NAO SWHs along the entire eastern seaboard (25°N to 45°N). The most prominent wave direction off Cape Cod, MA during positive-period NAO is approximately 105°, as compared to approximately 75° during negative-period NAO. Prominent wave directions between Cape Canaveral, FL, and Savannah, GA exhibit a similar shift but during opposite phases of the NAO. The results of this analysis suggest that the atmosphere-ocean interactions associated with contrasting NAO phases can significantly change the wave climate observed offshore along the North American Atlantic coast, altering alongshore wave energy fluxes and sediment transport patterns along the coast.

Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dandan; Wu, Qigang; Hu, Aixue; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Schroeder, Steven R.; Yang, Fucheng

2018-02-01

This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific-North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF-) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF- SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific-North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic-European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific-North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP-, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP-, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

2017-12-01

This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

Re-emerging ocean temperature anomalies in late-2010 associated with a repeat negative NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taws, Sarah L.; Marsh, Robert; Wells, Neil C.; Hirschi, Joël

2011-10-01

Northern Europe was influenced by consecutive episodes of extreme winter weather at the start and end of the 2010 calendar year. A tripole pattern in North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), associated with an exceptionally negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), characterized both winter periods. This pattern was largely absent at the surface during the 2010 summer season; however equivalent sub-surface temperature anomalies were preserved within the seasonal thermocline throughout the year. Here, we present evidence for the re-emergence of late-winter 2009/10 SSTAs during the following early winter season of 2010/11. The observed re-emergence contributes toward the winter-to-winter persistence of the anomalous tripole pattern. Considering the active influence of the oceans upon leading modes of atmospheric circulation over seasonal timescales, associated with the memory of large-scale sea surface temperature anomaly patterns, the re-emergence of remnant temperature anomalies may have also contributed toward the persistence of a negative winter NAO, and the recurrence of extreme wintry conditions over the initial 2010/11 winter season.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Reconstructing the leading mode of multi-decadal North Atlantic variability over the last two millenia using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

The increasing availability of high-resolution North Atlantic paleoclimate proxies allows to not only study local climate variations in time, but also temporal changes in spatial variability patterns across the entire region possibly controlled by large-scale coherent variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In this study, we use functional paleoclimate network analysis [1,2] to investigate changes in the statistical similarity patterns among an ensemble of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe included in the Arctic 2k data base. Specifically, we construct complex networks capturing the mutual statistical similarity of inter-annual temperature variability recorded in tree ring records, ice cores and lake sediments for multidecadal time windows covering the last two millenia. The observed patterns of co-variability are ultimately connected to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and most prominently to multidecadal variations of the NAO. Based on the inferred networks, we study the dynamical similarity between regional clusters of archives defined according to present-day inter-annual temperature variations across the study region. This analysis identifies those time-dependent inter-regional linkages that are most informative about the leading-order North Atlantic climate variability according to a recent NAO reconstruction for the last millenium [3]. Based on these linkages, we extend the existing reconstruction to obtain qualitative information on multidecadal to centennial scale North Atlantic climate variability over the last two millenia. In general, we find a tendency towards a dominating positive NAO phase interrupted by pronounced and extended intervals of negative NAO. Relatively rapid transitions between both types of behaviour are present during distinct periods including the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and for the Dark Ages Little Ice Age. [1] K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, S.F.M. Breitenbach, J. Kurths: Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data. Climate Dynamics 41, 3-19, 2013 [2] J.L. Oster, N.P. Kelley: Tracking regional and global teleconnections recorded by western North American speleothem records. Quaternary Science Reviews 149, 18-33, 2016 [3] P. Ortega, F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C.C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millenium. Nature 523, 71-74, 2015

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan; Fabian, Karl; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO reconstructions are crucial to better understand NAO variability in its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and possible shifts associated with ongoing climate change. Fjord deposits have a great potential for providing high-resolution sedimentary records that reflect local terrestrial and marine processes and, therefore, offer unique opportunities for the investigation of sedimentological and geochemical climatically induced processes. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we use the gained knowledge to establish the first high resolution NAO proxy record from marine sediments. By comparing geochemical measurements from a short sediment core with instrumental data we show that marine primary productivity proxies are sensitive to NAO changes. Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish the first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAO-TFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2,800 years. The NAO-TFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends.

The effect of the East Atlantic pattern on the precipitation δ18O-NAO relationship in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, L.; McDermott, F.; Werner, M.

2016-10-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to influence precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) through its control on air temperature and on the trajectory of the westerly winds that carry moisture onto Europe during boreal winters. Hence, paleoclimate studies seeking to reconstruct the NAO can exploit the δ18O signal that is commonly preserved in natural archives such as stalagmites, ice cores, tree rings and lake sediments. However, such reconstructions should consider the uncertainties that arise from non-stationarities in the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Here, new insights into the causes of these temporal non-stationarities are presented for the European region using both observations (GNIP database) and the output of an isotope-enabled general circulation model (ECHAM5-wiso). The results show that, although the East Atlantic (EA) pattern is generally uncorrelated to δ18Op during the instrumental period, its polarity affects the δ18Op-NAO relationship. Non-stationarities in this relationship result from spatial shifts of the δ18Op-NAO correlated areas as a consequence of different NAO/EA combinations. These shifts are consistent with those reported previously for NAO-winter climate variables and the resulting non-stationarities mean that δ18O-based NAO reconstructions could be compromised if the balance of positive and negative NAO/EA states differs substantially in a calibration period compared with the period of interest in the past. The same approach has been followed to assess the relationships between δ18Op and both winter total precipitation and winter mean surface air temperature, with similar results. Crucially, this study also identifies regions within Europe where temporal changes in the NAO, air temperature and precipitation can be more robustly reconstructed using δ18O time series from natural archives, irrespective of concomitant changes in the EA.

The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies on low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manganello, Julia V.

2008-05-01

The influence of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) on multi-year persistence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the second half of the twentieth century is investigated using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Atmospheric GCM (AGCM) with an emphasis on isolating the geographic location of the SSTA that produce this influence. The present study focuses on calculating the atmospheric response to the SSTA averaged over 1988 1995 (1961 1968) corresponding to the observed period of strong persistence of the positive (negative) phase of the decadal NAO. The model response to the global 1988 1995 average SSTA shows a statistically significant large-scale pattern characteristic of the positive phase of the NAO. Forcing with the global 1961 1968 average SSTA generates a NAO of the opposite polarity compared to observations. However, all large-scale features both in the model and observations during this period are weaker in magnitude and less significant compared to 1988 1995. Additional idealized experiments show that over the northern center of the NAO the non-linear component of the forced response appears to be quite important and acts to enhance the positive NAO signal. On the other hand, over the southern center where the model response is the strongest, it is also essentially linear. The 1988 1995 average SSTA restricted to the western tropical Pacific region produce a positive NAO remarkably similar in structure but stronger in magnitude than the model response to the global and tropical Indo-Pacific 1988 1995 forcing. A 200-hPa geopotential height response in these experiments shows a positive anomaly over the southern center of the NAO embedded in the Rossby wave trains propagating from the western tropical Pacific. Indian Ocean SSTA lead to much weaker positive NAO primarily through the effect on its northern center. SST forcing confined to the North Atlantic north of equator does not produce a response statistically different from the control simulation, suggesting that it is not strong enough to significantly affect the phase of the decadal NAO. Inclusion of the South Atlantic north of 45° south does not change this result.

Influences of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on warm season temperature and crop yields in the southwestern US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Kafatos, M.

2013-12-01

Despite advancements in agricultural technology, agricultural productivity remains vulnerable to extreme meteorological conditions. This study has found significant impacts of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on extreme temperatures and in turn on crop yields in the Southwestern United States (SW US) region. Analyses of multi-year data of observed temperatures and simulated maize yields reveal that NAO affects positively the daily temperature maxima and minima in the green-up periods (March-June) and that the response of maize yields to NAO varies according to the climatological mean temperatures. In warmer regions, a combination of above-normal NAO in the planting periods and below-normal NAO in the growing periods is favorable for high maize yields by reducing extremely cold days during the planting periods and extremely hot days in the later periods, respectively. In colder regions, continuously above-normal NAO conditions favor higher yields via above normal thermal conditions. Results in this study suggest that NAO predictions can benefit agricultural planning in SW US.

New England Cod Collapse and the Climate.

PubMed

Meng, Kyle C; Oremus, Kimberly L; Gaines, Steven D

2016-01-01

To improve fishery management, there is an increasing need to understand the long-term consequences of natural and anthropogenic climate variability for ecological systems. New England's iconic cod populations have been in decline for several decades and have recently reached unprecedented lows. We find that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is a consequence of three results: i) a 1-unit increase in the NAO winter index is associated with a 17% decrease in the spring biomass of age-1 cod the following year; ii) this NAO-driven decrease persists as the affected cohort matures; iii) fishing practices appear to exacerbate NAO's direct biological effect such that, since 1913, a 1-unit increase in the NAO index lowers subsequent cod catch for up to 19 years. The Georges Bank cod stock displays similar patterns. Because we statistically detect a delay between the NAO and subsequent declines in adult biomass, our findings imply that observed current NAO conditions can be used in stock forecasts, providing lead time for adaptive policy. More broadly, our approach can inform forecasting efforts for other fish populations strongly affected by natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.

Forest productivity in southwestern Europe is controlled by coupled North Atlantic and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan A; Herrero, Asier; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Stoffel, Markus; Lucas-Borja, Manuel E; Andivia, Enrique; Sancho-García, Cesar; Zavala, Miguel A

2017-12-20

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) depicts annual and decadal oscillatory modes of variability responsible for dry spells over the European continent. The NAO therefore holds a great potential to evaluate the role, as carbon sinks, of water-limited forests under climate change. However, uncertainties related to inconsistent responses of long-term forest productivity to NAO have so far hampered firm conclusions on its impacts. We hypothesize that, in part, such inconsistencies might have their origin in periodical sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean (i.e., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, AMO). Here we show strong empirical evidence in support of this hypothesis using 120 years of periodical inventory data from Iberian pine forests. Our results point to AMO + NAO + and AMO - NAO - phases as being critical for forest productivity, likely due to decreased winter water balance and abnormally low winter temperatures, respectively. Our findings could be essential for the evaluation of ecosystem functioning vulnerabilities associated with increased climatic anomalies under unprecedented warming conditions in the Mediterranean.

Life history tactics shape amphibians' demographic responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

PubMed

Cayuela, Hugo; Joly, Pierre; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Pichenot, Julian; Bonnaire, Eric; Priol, Pauline; Peyronel, Olivier; Laville, Mathias; Besnard, Aurélien

2017-11-01

Over the last three decades, climate abnormalities have been reported to be involved in biodiversity decline by affecting population dynamics. A growing number of studies have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences the demographic parameters of a wide range of plant and animal taxa in different ways. Life history theory could help to understand these different demographic responses to the NAO. Indeed, theory states that the impact of weather variation on a species' demographic traits should depend on its position along the fast-slow continuum. In particular, it is expected that NAO would have a higher impact on recruitment than on adult survival in slow species, while the opposite pattern is expected occur in fast species. To test these predictions, we used long-term capture-recapture datasets (more than 15,000 individuals marked from 1965 to 2015) on different surveyed populations of three amphibian species in Western Europe: Triturus cristatus, Bombina variegata, and Salamandra salamandra. Despite substantial intraspecific variation, our study revealed that these three species differ in their position on a slow-fast gradient of pace of life. Our results also suggest that the differences in life history tactics influence amphibian responses to NAO fluctuations: Adult survival was most affected by the NAO in the species with the fastest pace of life (T. cristatus), whereas recruitment was most impacted in species with a slower pace of life (B. variegata and S. salamandra). In the context of climate change, our findings suggest that the capacity of organisms to deal with future changes in NAO values could be closely linked to their position on the fast-slow continuum. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The combined influence of the main European circulation patterns on carbon uptake by ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastos, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo

2014-05-01

Understanding how natural climate variability affects carbon uptake by land and ocean pools is particularly relevant to better characterize human impact on the carbon cycle. Recently, we have contributed to assess the major role played by the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon uptake by land ecosystems and significantly influencing global CO2 air-borne fraction [1]. Despite the prominent role played by ENSO, other important teleconnections on the hemispheric scale have deserved less attention. On the European scale, the main mode of variability is the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls storm tracks position and drives changes in temperature and precipitation over the whole region, affecting vegetation dynamics [2]. Besides NAO, a few additional large scale circulation patterns the Scandinavian (SC) and East-Atlantic (EA) Patterns, are also known to influence significantly the European climate [3]. Different combinations of these teleconnection polarities have been recently shown to modulate the overall role of the NAO impact location and strength, thus affecting winter temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe [4]. This work aims to answer the following questions: (i) how do NAO, EA and SC affect vegetation carbon uptake IAV? (ii) do the interactions between these three modes have a significant impact on land CO2 IAV? (iii) what is the contribution of the different physical variables to ecosystems' response to these modes? (iv) how well do the state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 represent these climate variability modes and the corresponding carbon fluxes? We first analyze observational data to assess the relationships between the different combinations of NAO, SC and EA polarities and IAV of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP, respectively), as well as the most relevant driving factors of ecosystem's response to those variability patterns. Although the winter state of NAO has, as expected, the largest impact on European-wide carbon uptake patterns, the other modes appear to have a strong influence in particular regions, presenting overlapping effects with different signs which are due to differentiated responses to temperature and precipitation variability. We then rely on the historical experiment (CO2 concentration driven) of 12 ESMs from CMIP5 to assess the capability of those models to represent NAO, EA and SC patterns, the associated physical variables as well as the corresponding land carbon fluxes. Although all models simulate NAO reasonably well, and most represent EA and SC patterns satisfactorily, the response of the carbon cycle to these variability modes still needs further improvements. References [1] Bastos, A., Running, S. W., Gouveia, C.M., Trigo, R.M., (2013): J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.,118, 1247-1255, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20100. [2] Gouveia, C.M., Trigo, R. M., DaCamara, C. C., Libonati, R., Pereira, J. M. C. (2008): Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1835-1847, doi: 10.1002/joc.1682. [3] Trigo R.M., Valente M.A., Trigo I.F., Miranda P.M., Ramos A.M., Paredes D., García-Herrera R. (2008): Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 212-234, doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.014. [4] Comas-Bru, L., McDermott, F. (2013): Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2158.

Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

PubMed Central

Báez, José C.; Gimeno, Luis; Gómez-Gesteira, Moncho; Ferri-Yáñez, Francisco; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Alborán Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Alborán watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST. PMID:23638005

Norwegian fjord sediments reveal NAO related winter temperature and precipitation changes of the past 2800 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faust, Johan C.; Fabian, Karl; Milzer, Gesa; Giraudeau, Jacques; Knies, Jochen

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic region. Associated shifts of storm tracks, precipitation and temperature patterns affect energy supply and demand, fisheries and agricultural, as well as marine and terrestrial ecological dynamics. Long-term NAO records are crucial to better understand its response to climate forcing factors, and assess predictability and shifts associated with ongoing climate change. A recent study of instrumental time series revealed NAO as main factor for a strong relation between winter temperature, precipitation and river discharge in central Norway over the past 50 years. Here we compare geochemical measurements with instrumental data and show that primary productivity recorded in central Norwegian fjord sediments is sensitive to NAO variability. This observation is used to calibrate paleoproductivity changes to a 500-year reconstruction of winter NAO (Luterbacher et al., 2001). Conditioned on a stationary relation between our climate proxy and the NAO we establish a first high resolution NAO proxy record (NAOTFJ) from marine sediments covering the past 2800 years. The NAOTFJ shows distinct co-variability with climate changes over Greenland, solar activity and Northern Hemisphere glacier dynamics as well as climatically associated paleo-demographic trends. The here presented climate record shows that fjord sediments provide crucial information for an improved understanding of the linkages between atmospheric circulation, solar and oceanic forcing factors.

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on Recent Greenland Surface Mass Loss and Mass Partitioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedesco, M.; Alexander, P.; Porter, D. F.; Fettweis, X.; Luthcke, S. B.; Mote, T. L.; Rennermalm, A.; Hanna, E.

2017-12-01

Despite recent changes in Greenland surface mass losses and atmospheric circulation over the Arctic, little attention has been given to the potential role of large-scale atmospheric processes on the spatial and temporal variability of mass loss and partitioning of the GrIS mass loss. Using a combination of satellite gravimetry measurements, outputs of the MAR regional climate model and reanalysis data, we show that changes in atmospheric patterns since 2013 over the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (NAA) modulate total mass loss trends over Greenland together with the spatial and temporal distribution of mass loss partitioning. For example, during the 2002 - 2012 period, melting persistently increased, especially along the west coast, as a consequence of increased insulation and negative NAO conditions characterizing that period. Starting in 2013, runoff along the west coast decreased while snowfall increased substantially, when NAO turned to a more neutral/positive state. Modeled surface mass balance terms since 1950 indicate that part of the GRACE-period, specifically the period between 2002 and 2012, was exceptional in terms of snowfall over the east and northeast regions. During that period snowfall trend decreased to almost 0 Gt/yr from a long-term increasing trend, which presumed again in 2013. To identify the potential impact of atmospheric patterns on mass balance and its partitioning, we studied the spatial and temporal correlations between NAO and snowfall/runoff. Our results indicate that the correlation between summer snowfall and NAO is not stable during the 1950 - 2015 period. We further looked at changes in patterns of circulation using self organizing maps (SOMs) to identify the atmospheric patterns characterizing snowfall during different periods. We discuss potential implications for past changes and future GCM and RCM simulations.

Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations.

PubMed

Heino, Matias; Puma, Michael J; Ward, Philip J; Gerten, Dieter; Heck, Vera; Siebert, Stefan; Kummu, Matti

2018-03-28

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) peaked strongly during the boreal winter 2015-2016, leading to food insecurity in many parts of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Besides ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are known to impact crop yields worldwide. Here we assess for the first time in a unified framework the relationships between ENSO, IOD and NAO and simulated crop productivity at the sub-country scale. Our findings reveal that during 1961-2010, crop productivity is significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation in two-thirds of global cropland area. Besides observing new possible links, especially for NAO in Africa and the Middle East, our analyses confirm several known relationships between crop productivity and these oscillations. Our results improve the understanding of climatological crop productivity drivers, which is essential for enhancing food security in many of the most vulnerable places on the planet.

Atmospheric teleconnection influence on North American land surface phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Matthew P.; Wise, Erika K.; Janko, Mark; Hwang, Taehee; Kolby Smith, W.

2018-03-01

Short-term forecasts of vegetation activity are currently not well constrained due largely to our lack of understanding of coupled climate-vegetation dynamics mediated by complex interactions between atmospheric teleconnection patterns. Using ecoregion-scale estimates of North American vegetation activity inferred from remote sensing (1982-2015), we examined seasonal and spatial relationships between land surface phenology and the atmospheric components of five teleconnection patterns over the tropical Pacific, north Pacific, and north Atlantic. Using a set of regression experiments, we also tested for interactions among these teleconnection patterns and assessed predictability of vegetation activity solely based on knowledge of atmospheric teleconnection indices. Autumn-to-winter composites of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were strongly correlated with start of growing season timing, especially in the Pacific Northwest. The two leading modes of north Pacific variability (the Pacific-North American, PNA, and West Pacific patterns) were significantly correlated with start of growing season timing across much of southern Canada and the upper Great Lakes. Regression models based on these Pacific teleconnections were skillful predictors of spring phenology across an east-west swath of temperate and boreal North America, between 40°N-60°N. While the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was not strongly correlated with start of growing season timing on its own, we found compelling evidence of widespread NAO-SOI and NAO-PNA interaction effects. These results suggest that knowledge of atmospheric conditions over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans increases the predictability of North American spring phenology. A more robust consideration of the complexity of the atmospheric circulation system, including interactions across multiple ocean basins, is an important step towards accurate forecasts of vegetation activity.

Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2018-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993-2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several physical mechanisms which may explain the link between the sea-level variability and the atmospheric pattern described by the BANOS index. These mechanisms include the inverse barometer effect (IBE), freshwater balance, net energy surface flux and wind-induced water transport. We found that the most important mechanism is the IBE in both wintertime and summertime. Assuming a complete equilibration of seasonal sea level to the SLP gradients over this region, the IBE can explain up to 88 % of the sea-level variability attributed to the BANOS index in wintertime and 34 % in summertime. The net energy flux at the surface is found to be an important factor for the variation of sea level, explaining 35 % of sea-level variance in wintertime and a very small amount in summer. The freshwater flux could only explain 27 % of the variability in summertime and a negligible part in winter. In contrast to the NAO, the direct wind forcing associated with the SLP BANOS pattern does not lead to transport of water from the North Sea into the Baltic Sea in wintertime.

Persistent positive North Atlantic oscillation mode dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

PubMed

Trouet, Valérie; Esper, Jan; Graham, Nicholas E; Baker, Andy; Scourse, James D; Frank, David C

2009-04-03

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) was the most recent pre-industrial era warm interval of European climate, yet its driving mechanisms remain uncertain. We present here a 947-year-long multidecadal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reconstruction and find a persistent positive NAO during the MCA. Supplementary reconstructions based on climate model results and proxy data indicate a clear shift to weaker NAO conditions into the Little Ice Age (LIA). Globally distributed proxy data suggest that this NAO shift is one aspect of a global MCA-LIA climate transition that probably was coupled to prevailing La Niña-like conditions amplified by an intensified Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the MCA.

Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smerdon, J. E.; Baek, S. H.; Coats, S.; Williams, P.; Cook, B.; Cook, E. R.; Seager, R.

2017-12-01

The tree-ring-based North American Drought Atlas (NADA), Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), and Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) collectively yield a near-hemispheric gridded reconstruction of hydroclimate variability over the last millennium. To test the robustness of the large-scale representation of hydroclimate variability across the drought atlases, the joint expression of seasonal climate variability and teleconnections in the NADA, MADA, and OWDA are compared against two global, observation-based PDSI products. Predominantly positive (negative) correlations are determined between seasonal precipitation (surface air temperature) and collocated tree-ring-based PDSI, with average Pearson's correlation coefficients increasing in magnitude from boreal winter to summer. For precipitation, these correlations tend to be stronger in the boreal winter and summer when calculated for the observed PDSI record, while remaining similar for temperature. Notwithstanding these differences, the drought atlases robustly express teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These expressions exist in the drought atlas estimates of boreal summer PDSI despite the fact that these modes of climate variability are dominant in boreal winter, with the exception of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. ENSO and NAO teleconnection patterns in the drought atlases are particularly consistent with their well-known dominant expressions in boreal winter and over the OWDA domain, respectively. Collectively, our findings confirm that the joint Northern Hemisphere drought atlases robustly reflect large-scale patterns of hydroclimate variability on seasonal to multidecadal timescales over the 20th century and are likely to provide similarly robust estimates of hydroclimate variability prior to the existence of widespread instrumental data.

Lagged correlations between the NAO and the 11-year solar cycle: forced response or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehrlein, J.; Chiodo, G.; Polvani, L. M.; Smith, A. K.

2017-12-01

Recently, the North Atlantic Oscillation has been suggested to respond to the 11-year solar cycle with a lag of a few years. The solar/NAO relationship provides a potential pathway for solar activity to modulate surface climate. However, a short observational record paired with the strong internal variability of the NAO raises questions about the robustness of the claimed solar/NAO relationship. For the first time, we investigate the robustness of the solar/NAO signal in four different reanalysis data sets and long integrations from an ocean-coupled chemistry-climate model forced with the 11-year solar cycle. The signal appears to be robust in the different reanalysis datasets. We also show, for the first time, that many features of the observed signal, such as amplitude, spatial pattern, and lag of 2/3 years, can be accurately reproduced in our model simulations. However, in both the reanalysis and model simulations, we find that this signal is non-stationary. A lagged NAO/solar signal can also be reproduced in two sets of model integrations without the 11-year solar cycle. This suggests that the correlation found in observational data could be the result of internal decadal variability in the NAO and not a response to the solar cycle. This has wide implications towards the interpretation of solar signals in observational data.

North Atlantic Oscillation Drives Regional Greenland Glacier Volume During the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjork, A. A.; Aagaard, S.; Hallander, A. M.; Khan, S. A.; Box, J. E.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Larsen, N. K.; Korsgaard, N. J.; Cappelen, J.; Colgan, W. T.; Machguth, H.; Andresen, C. S.; Kjaer, K. H.

2016-12-01

While most areas of the Greenland ice sheet have undergone rapid mass loss since c. 1990, the central eastern section of the ice sheet has advanced and gained mass. This contrasting regional trend has been attributed to positive surface mass balance (SMB) in the absence of significant dynamic mass loss. To constrain the atypical behavior in this region, we mapped glacier length fluctuations of nearly 200 peripheral glaciers and ice caps (PGICs) over a 103-year period, and compare the results with c. 150 new glacier length records from central west Greenland. We demonstrate that the regional response in ice volume is closely correlated to changes in precipitation, governed by circulation patterns associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and secondarily influenced by temperature forcing in certain periods. More broadly, we find that the NAO contributes to contrasting precipitation variability in East and West Greenland, where it appears to be responsible for at least 10% and more than 25%, respectively, of the variability in ice sheet accumulation rate. This east-west asymmetry, which influences both LGICs and the ice sheet, illustrates how substantial uncertainty in NAO projections directly contributes to uncertainty in mass balance projections.

Decadal-timescale changes of the Atlantic overturning circulation and climate in a coupled climate model with a hybrid-coordinate ocean component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persechino, A.; Marsh, R.; Sinha, B.; Megann, A. P.; Blaker, A. T.; New, A. L.

2012-08-01

A wide range of statistical tools is used to investigate the decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated key variables in a climate model (CHIME, Coupled Hadley-Isopycnic Model Experiment), which features a novel ocean component. CHIME is as similar as possible to the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) with the important exception that its ocean component is based on a hybrid vertical coordinate. Power spectral analysis reveals enhanced AMOC variability for periods in the range 15-30 years. Strong AMOC conditions are associated with: (1) a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly pattern reminiscent of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) response, but associated with variations in a northern tropical-subtropical gradient; (2) a Surface Air Temperature anomaly pattern closely linked to SST; (3) a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern; (4) a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The primary mode of AMOC variability is associated with decadal changes in the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Iceland Norwegian (GIN) Seas, in both cases linked to the tropical activity about 15 years earlier. These decadal changes are controlled by the low-frequency NAO that may be associated with a rapid atmospheric teleconnection from the tropics to the extratropics. Poleward advection of salinity anomalies in the mixed layer also leads to AMOC changes that are linked to processes in the Labrador Sea. A secondary mode of AMOC variability is associated with interannual changes in the Labrador and GIN Seas, through the impact of the NAO on local surface density.

Climate variability and marine ecosystem impacts: a North Atlantic perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, L. S.; Lear, W. H.

In recent decades it has been recognized that in the North Atlantic climatic variability has been largely driven by atmospheric forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index began a pronounced decline around 1950 to a low in the 1960s. From 1970 onward the NAO index increased to its most extreme and persistent positive phase during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Changes in the pattern of the NAO have differential impacts on the opposite sides of the North Atlantic and differential impacts in the north and south. The changes in climate resulting from changes in the NAO appear to have had substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, in particular, on fish productivity, with the effects varying from region to region. An examination of several species and stocks, e.g. gadoids, herring and plankton in the Northeast Atlantic and cod and shellfish in the Northwest Atlantic, indicates that there is a link between long-term trends in the NAO and the productivity of various components of the marine ecosystem. While broad trends are evident, the mechanisms are poorly understood. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of how this climate variability affects the productivity of various components of the North Atlantic marine ecosystem.

New England Cod Collapse and the Climate

PubMed Central

Meng, Kyle C.; Oremus, Kimberly L.; Gaines, Steven D.

2016-01-01

To improve fishery management, there is an increasing need to understand the long-term consequences of natural and anthropogenic climate variability for ecological systems. New England’s iconic cod populations have been in decline for several decades and have recently reached unprecedented lows. We find that 17% of the overall decline in Gulf of Maine cod biomass since 1980 can be attributed to positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This is a consequence of three results: i) a 1-unit increase in the NAO winter index is associated with a 17% decrease in the spring biomass of age-1 cod the following year; ii) this NAO-driven decrease persists as the affected cohort matures; iii) fishing practices appear to exacerbate NAO’s direct biological effect such that, since 1913, a 1-unit increase in the NAO index lowers subsequent cod catch for up to 19 years. The Georges Bank cod stock displays similar patterns. Because we statistically detect a delay between the NAO and subsequent declines in adult biomass, our findings imply that observed current NAO conditions can be used in stock forecasts, providing lead time for adaptive policy. More broadly, our approach can inform forecasting efforts for other fish populations strongly affected by natural and anthropogenic climatic variation. PMID:27463967

The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in controlling U.K. butterfly population size and phenology

PubMed Central

Westgarth-Smith, Angus R; Roy, David B; Scholze, Martin; Tucker, Allan; Sumpter, John P

2012-01-01

1. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts considerable control on U.K. weather. This study investigates the impact of the NAO on butterfly abundance and phenology using 34 years of data from the U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS). 2. The study uses a multi-species indicator to show that the NAO does not affect overall U.K. butterfly population size. However, the abundance of bivoltine butterfly species, which have longer flight seasons, were found to be more likely to respond positively to the NAO compared with univoltine species, which show little or a negative response. 3. A positive winter NAO index is associated with warmer weather and earlier flight dates for Anthocharis cardamines (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), Melanargia galathea (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Aphantopus hyperantus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Pyronia tithonus (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae), Lasiommata megera (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and Polyommatus icarus (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). In bivoltine species, the NAO affects the phenology of the first generation, the timing of which indirectly controls the timing of the second generation. 4. The NAO influences the timing of U.K. butterfly flight seasons more strongly than it influences population size. PMID:22879687

A 3000-year annual-resolution record of the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, B. F.; Mariethoz, G.; Hellstrom, J.; Baker, A.

2013-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation provides an index of North Atlantic climate variability. The 947-yr long annual resolution record of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) of Trouet et al. (2009, Science, 324, 78-81), the NAO Morocco-Scotland index, combined tree ring and stalagmite data, the latter a single stalagmite growth rate archive from NW Scotland. Trouet et al (2009) noted the unusual persistence of the positive phase of the NAO during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 1050-1400AD). In order to better assess the uniqueness of the persistently positive NAO in the MCA, we extend the speleothem portion of the proxy NAO record with a composite of five stalagmites from the same cave system. We present the first-ever composite speleothem growth rate record. Using a combination of lamina counting, U-Th dating, and correlation between growth rate series, we build a continuous, annual-resolution, annually laminated, stalagmite growth rates series for the last 3000 years. We use geostatistical and stochastic approaches appropriate to stalagmite growth rate time series to characterise uncertainty in the stalagmite series and to screen them for periods of relative climate sensitivity vs. periods where there is hydrologically introduced, non-climatic variability. We produce the longest annual-resolution annual lamina record of the NAO for the last 3000 years. The screened stalagmite series is compared to instrumental and proxy records of the NAO. Spectral and wavelet analysis demonstrates that the series contains significant decadal to centennial scale periodicity throughout the record. We demonstrate that the persistently positive NAO during the MCA (1080-1460 CE) is remarkable within the last 3000 years. Two other phases of persistent, positive NAO, occur at 290-550 CE and 660-530 BCE, in agreement with the lower resolution, 5,200-yr Greenland lake sediment NAO proxy (Olsen et al, 2012, Nature Geoscience, 5, 808-812).

Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

2017-12-01

Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The information derived from this study would be helpful for regional water managers in forecasting regional water availability and help them develop drought adaptation and mitigation policies by incorporating information based on the large scale ocean-atmospheric cycles.

Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Shu; Liu, Bingjun

2018-05-01

Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels.

The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, Rouzbeh; Driscoll, Charles T.; Adamowski, Jan F.

2017-10-01

A series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO index, SST: Sea Surface Temperature anomalies) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index, SLP: Sea-Level Pressure anomalies) up to three seasons in advance. The Merrimack River watershed, the fourth largest basin in New England, with a drainage area of 13,000 km2, is a compelling study site because it not only provides an opportunity to investigate the teleconnection between hydrologic variables and large-scale climate circulation patterns, but also how those patterns may become obscured by anthropogenic disturbances such as river regulation or urban development. We considered precipitation and discharge data of 21 gauging stations within the Merrimack River watershed, including the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF), NH, with a median record length of 55 years beginning as early as 1904. The discharge anomalies were statistically significant (p-value ≤ 0.2) between extreme positive and negative phases of AMO (1857-2011) and NAO (1900-2011) and revealed the potential teleconnectivity of climate circulation patterns with discharge. Annual and seasonal correlations of discharge were examined with the extreme phases of AMO and NAO at zero-, one-, or two- year/season lags (total of 30 scenarios). When AMO was greater than 0.2, the strongest correlations of AMO and NAO with discharge were observed at headwater catchments. This correlation weakened downstream towards larger regulated and/or developed sub-basins. We introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding events. An exponential decay function was regressed through the historic occurrence of the relative frequency of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions with regards to the extreme phases of AMO and NAO. While the function was decaying, the tail asymptotically merged into and stabilized at the theoretical probability of the event. As the basin scale increased, the probability of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions decreased. The Merrimack River watershed will most likely experience greater than average discharge as its extreme condition, therefore development should be avoided on flood plains. Furthermore, the current reservoir storage capacity in the Merrimack should be improved in order to accommodate excess water input and minimize flood damage. Future research should target changes in the magnitude and timing of high discharge events in order to develop adaptation strategies for aging hydraulic infrastructure in the region.

Assessing the role of Climate Variability in the recent evolution of coastlines in southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Paola, Gianluigi; Atkinson, David; Rosskopf, Carmen M.; Walker, Ian

2016-04-01

During the last century, Climatic Variability (CV) and change effects have generated a discernable impact on the world's coasts, most notably through changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of storm surges, flooding, coastal erosion and sea-level rise. This study explores CV signals and coastal responses along a 36 km stretch of coast in the Molise region of southern Italy on the Central Adriatic Sea. Two dominant signals of CV in the Mediterranean region of Europe are characterized by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic-West Russia (EAWR) patterns. The NAO is the leading mode of CV in the North Atlantic region and periods with positive NAO index values are typically associated with above average wind speeds across the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic and western Europe, with anomalously northerly flows across the Mediterranean region and enhanced trade winds over the sub-tropical North Atlantic. Although NAO is one of the most prominent patterns in all seasons, its relative role in regulating the variability of the European climate during non-winter months is not as clear as for the winter season. In contrast, the EAWR exerts strong influence on precipitation in the Mediterranean region such that, during the negative phase of EAWR, wetter conditions prevail across central Europe and the Mediterranean region, with precipitation extremes often occurring during these periods. This study examines the effects of NAO and EAWR on coastline response in the Molise region, which has a microtidal regime (ordinary tidal excursions of 30-40 cm). GIS analysis of shoreline changes from historical aerial photography from 1954-2011 was performed and 20 years (1989-2008) of wave data were analysed from the nearby Ortona buoy to define trends and extreme event occurrence in the wave climate in the study area. Finally, statistical associations between NAO, EAWR, and other CV indices of possible influence (e.g. Arctic Oscillation, Scandinavia Pattern, or the East Atlantic pattern) and shoreline position changes were explored in order to identify linkages between CV forcing and coastal response in this region. The study demonstrates that the recent evolution of the Molise coastline is responding to changes in the wave climate and increases in the frequency and intensity of storm surges in recent years. Coastal response in the region is also strongly controlled by engineering interventions, such as backwater structures and groynes (almost the 75% of coastline is characterized by offshore defenses, above all around Biferno and Trigno mouths and Termoli harbor), and the interaction of the river systems that feed the coastline. This condition may mitigate some of the impacts of CV events that are observed elsewhere along intervening stretches of coast.

Signatures of large-scale and local climates on the demography of white-tailed ptarmigan in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA.

PubMed

Wang, Guiming; Hobbs, N Thompson; Galbraith, Hector; Giesen, Kenneth M

2002-09-01

Global climate change may impact wildlife populations by affecting local weather patterns, which, in turn, can impact a variety of ecological processes. However, it is not clear that local variations in ecological processes can be explained by large-scale patterns of climate. The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale climate phenomenon that has been shown to influence the population dynamics of some animals. Although effects of the NAO on vertebrate population dynamics have been studied, it remains uncertain whether it broadly predicts the impact of weather on species. We examined the ability of local weather data and the NAO to explain the annual variation in population dynamics of white-tailed ptarmigan ( Lagopus leucurus) in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA. We performed canonical correlation analysis on the demographic subspace of ptarmigan and local-climate subspace defined by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) using data from 1975 to 1999. We found that two subspaces were significantly correlated on the first canonical variable. The Pearson correlation coefficient of the first EOF values of the demographic and local-climate subspaces was significant. The population density and the first EOF of local-climate subspace influenced the ptarmigan population with 1-year lags in the Gompertz model. However, the NAO index was neither related to the first two EOF of local-climate subspace nor to the first EOF of the demographic subspace of ptarmigan. Moreover, the NAO index was not a significant term in the Gompertz model for the ptarmigan population. Therefore, local climate had stronger signature on the demography of ptarmigan than did a large-scale index, i.e., the NAO index. We conclude that local responses of wildlife populations to changing climate may not be adequately explained by models that project large-scale climatic patterns.

Cod Collapse and Climate in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oremus, K. L.; Meng, K. C.; Gaines, S.

2016-02-01

Understanding the determinants of fish population dynamics is crucial to the recovery of many fisheries. Current research emphasizes the role of environmental conditions in driving fish populations, but the magnitude of and mechanisms behind these effects on crucial populations are not well established. Despite aggressive management efforts, New England cod fisheries have been in decline for several decades and have now reached unprecedented lows. We find a strong negative relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and subsequent adult cod biomass and catch. In the Gulf of Maine fishery, a 1-unit NAO increase is associated with a 13% decrease in the biomass of age-1 cod the following year, a decrease that persists as the affected cohort matures. We further detect that a 1-unit NAO increase can lower commercial catch for up to 19 subsequent years, suggesting that fishing practices may be inadvertently exacerbating NAO's direct biological effects. These results imply that 18% and 32% of the overall decline in adult biomass and catch, respectively, since 1980 can be attributed to the NAO's recent multi-decadal positive phase. The Georges Bank cod fishery displays similar patterns. Because there is a delay between an NAO event and subsequent declines in adult biomass, our finding implies that already observed NAO events can be used in stock forecasts, providing lead time for adaptive policy. More broadly, our approach can inform forecasting efforts for other fisheries strongly affected by natural and anthropogenic climatic variation.

Spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin, China: Changing properties and causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, M.

2016-12-01

Under the background of climate change, extensive attentions have been paid on the increased extreme precipitation from the public and government. To analyze the influences of large-scale climate indices on the precipitation extremes, the spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes in the Poyang Lake basin have been investigated using the Bayesian hierarchical method. The seasonal maximum one-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) was used to represent the seasonal precipitation extremes. Results indicated that spring Rx1day was affected by El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a positive ENSO event in the same year tends to decrease the spring Rx1day in the northern part of Poyang Lake Basin while increase the spring Rx1day in southeastern Poyang Lake Basin, a positive NAO events in the same year tends to increase the spring Rx1day in the southwest and northwest part of Poyang Lake basin while decrease the spring Rx1day in the eastern part of Poyang Lake basin; summer Rx1day was affected by Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), positive IOD events in the same year tend to increase the summer Rx1day of northern Poyang Lake basin while decrease summer Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin; autumn Rx1day was affected by ENSO, positive ENSO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the autumn Rx1day in the west part of Poyang Lake basin; winter Rx1day was mainly affected by the NAO, positive NAO events in the same year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day of southern Poyang Lake basin, while positive NAO events in the previous year tend to mainly increase the winter Rx1day in the central and northeast part of Poyang Lake basin. It is considered that the region with the negative vertical velocity is dominated by more precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, field patterns of 500 hPa vertical velocity anomalies related to each climate index have further corroborated the influences of climate indices on the seasonal Rx1day, and these will be important to further understand the possible geophysical processes linking the teleconnections of each climate index on the seasonal extreme precipitation in the Poyang Lake basin.

A Decadal-scale Air-sea Interaction Theory for North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: the NAT-NAO-AMOC-AMO Coupled Mode and Its Remote Influences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianping; Sun, Cheng; Jin, Fei-Fei

2017-04-01

ABSTRACT North Atlantic region shows prominent multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) leads the oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years and the latter also leads the former by around 15 years. The mechanisms are investigated using simulations from a fully coupled model, and a NATNAO-AMOC-AMO Coupled Mode is proposed to explain the multidecadal variability in North Atlantic region. The NAT-NAO-AMO-AMOC coupled mode has important remote influences on regional climates. Observational analysis identifies a significant in-phase relationship between the AMV and Siberian warm season (May to October) precipitation. The physical mechanism for this relationship is investigated using both observations and numerical simulations. North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) warming associated with the positive AMV phase can excite an eastward propagating wave train response across the entire Eurasian continent, which includes an east-west dipole structure over Siberia. The dipole then leads to anomalous southerly winds bringing moisture northward to Siberia; the precipitation increases correspondingly. Furthermore, a prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data, and this teleconnection pattern is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). A strong inphase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability.

The evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation for the last 700 years inferred from D/H isotopes in the sedimentary record of Lake Azul (Azores archipelago, Portugal).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubio de Ingles, Maria Jesus; Shanahan, Timothy M.; Sáez, Alberto; José Pueyo, Juan; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Gonçalves, Vitor M.; Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo; Sánchez López, Guiomar; Francus, Pierre; Giralt, Santiago

2015-04-01

The δD plant leaf wax variations provide insights on precipitation and evaporation evolution through time. This proxy has been used to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climate mode since this mode rules most of the climate variability in the central North Atlantic area. A total lipid extraction preparation and the correspondent analyses in the IRMS have been done for 100 samples from the uppermost 1.5 m of the sedimentary infill of Lake Azul (Azores archipelago, Portugal). According to the chronological model, established by 210Pb profile and 4 AMS 14C dates, this record contains the environmental history of the last 730 years. The reconstructed precipitation variations obtained from D/H isotope values, suggest that this area has suffered significant changes in its distribution and intensity rainfall patterns through time. The end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1100- 1300 AD) is characterized by a progressive enrichmentof D/H isotope values which meant decreasing arid conditions. These rainfalls' increase might be interpreted by a shift from positive to negative dominance of the NAO. The Little Ice Age (LIA, 1300 - 1850 AD) was characterized by two humid periods (1300- 1550 AD and 1650 - 1850 AD) separated by a relatively dry period. These precipitation oscillations are clearly visible by marked changes in the D/H isotope values. The LIA was followed by the persistence of the positive NAO mode, exhibited by the depletion of the D/H isotope signal, which indicated an overall decrease of the precipitation in the central North Atlantic area. Surprisingly, the D/H of the last 100 years, characterized by the present global warming and a persistent positive NAO mode, display large fluctuations most possibly linked to an enhancement of the storminess which is in concordance with the data fluctuations observed in the instrumental record for the last 80 years in the archipelago. This climatic evolution is in accordance with other NAO records of the North Atlantic region (Trouet et al., 2012) highlighting the validity of the D/H isotopes as precipitation proxy. Trouet V., Scourse J.D., Raible C.C., 2012. North Atlantic storminess and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last Millenium: Reconciling contradictory proxy record of NAO variability. Global and planetary change.

The Use of Oceanic Indices Variations Due to Climate Change to Predict Annual Discharge Variations in Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berton, R.; Shaw, S. B.; Chandler, D. G.; Driscoll, C. T.

2014-12-01

Climatic change affects streamflow in watersheds with winter snowpack and an annual snowmelt hydrograph. In the northeastern US, changes in streamflow are driven by both the advanced timing of snowmelt and increasing summer precipitation. Projections of climate for the region in the 21st century is for warmer winters and wetter summers. Water planners need to understand future changes in flow metrics to determine if the current water resources are capable of fulfilling future demands or adapting to future changes in climate. The study of teleconnection patterns between oceanic indices variations and hydrologic variables may help improve the understanding of future water resources conditions in a watershed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation between oceanic indices and discharge variations in the Merrimack Watershed. The Merrimack Watershed is the fourth largest basin in New England which drains much of New Hampshire and northeastern portions of Massachusetts, USA. Variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) are defined by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. We hypothesize that temporal changes in discharge are related to AMO and NAO variations since precipitation and discharge are highly correlated in the Merrimack. The Merrimack Watershed consists of undisturbed (reference) catchments and disturbed (developed) basins with long stream gauge records (> 100 years). Developed basins provide an opportunity to evaluate the impacts of river regulation and land development on teleconnection patterns as well as changing climate. Time series of AMO and NAO indices over the past 150 years along with Merrimack annual precipitation and discharge time series have shown a 1 to 2-year watershed hydrologic memory; higher correlation between Merrimack‎ annual precipitation and discharge with AMO and NAO are observed when a 1 to 2-year lag is given to AMO and NAO indices. For instance, the mean correlation of AMO with precipitation/discharge for a zero-year lag was 0.16/0.09 and increased to 0.26/0.23 for a 1-year lag. Our study provides an insight on the lagged hydrologic response of reference catchments and developed basins to variations in oceanic indices.

On the teleconnection patterns to precipitation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Yu; Wang, Binbin; Zou, Chris B.; Hu, Bill X.; Liu, Youcun; Hao, Yonghong

2017-11-01

The Tianshan Mountains are known as the "water tower" in the arid region of Central Asia. Change in precipitation amount and pattern can have a profound impact on regional civilization and life supporting ecosystems. For this study, a systematic analysis of long-term precipitation data for the eastern Tianshan Mountains was conducted to investigate the influence of climate teleconnections on annual and intra-annual precipitation using data collected between 1951 and 2014 from 39 meteorological stations. Annual precipitation has increased during the past six decades at an average rate of 6.7 mm/10 years largely due to the increase in precipitation during the intra-annual wet period (May-October). The annual precipitation and its rate of increase were higher in the northwestern region. Annual precipitation was found to be most strongly correlated with index of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), and partially correlated with indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific North American Teleconnection Pattern (PNA), Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ISM was positively correlated with the precipitation in almost the entire region during the intra-annual wet period, while it showed positive correlations in the northern slope and the alpine region, and negative correlations in the southern slope during the intra-annual dry period (November to April). PDO had much weaker influence both in spatial scale and strength and primarily affected low elevations on the southern slopes of the middle and western regions. The impacts of PNA and AO on precipitation were weak and localized. ENSO and NAO indices were almost not correlated with annual precipitation observation in the eastern Tianshan Mountains.

Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes P.; Donner, Reik V.

2017-11-01

Obtaining reliable reconstructions of long-term atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic region presents a persistent challenge to contemporary paleoclimate research, which has been addressed by a multitude of recent studies. In order to contribute a novel methodological aspect to this active field, we apply here evolving functional network analysis, a recently developed tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure of the Earth's climate system, to a set of Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By comparing the time-dependent inter-regional linkage structures of the obtained functional paleoclimate network representations to a recent multi-centennial NAO reconstruction, we identify co-variability between southern Greenland, Svalbard, and Fennoscandia as being indicative of a positive NAO phase, while connections from Greenland and Fennoscandia to central Europe are more pronounced during negative NAO phases. By drawing upon this correspondence, we use some key parameters of the evolving network structure to obtain a qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era (last 2000 years) using a linear regression model trained upon the existing shorter reconstruction.

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation impact on European precipitation and drought under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsanis, I.; Tapoglou, E.

2018-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO.

Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

2017-08-01

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

Large-Scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.; Auer, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well- known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic), led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Nio index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low-latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes, and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to sub-tropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.

Inter-annual dynamics of the Barents Sea red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) stock indices in relation to environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvoretsky, Alexander G.; Dvoretsky, Vladimir G.

2016-12-01

Knowledge of relationships between environmental variables and biological processes can greatly improve fisheries assessment and management in commercially important species. We analyzed the effects of environmental factors (climatic indices and water temperature) on the stock characteristics (total population number, number of pre-recruits and number of legal males) of the red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus), an introduced species in the Barents Sea. Stock trends in red king crab appear to be related to decadal climate shifts. Abundances were negatively related to the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) in August and positively related to water temperature in late winter-early summer. Total and commercial stock abundance were negatively correlated with the lag-1 Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in August and the lag-2 winter NAO index. The total number of P. camtschaticus was most strongly associated with water temperature in spring and summer and NAO/AO indices in April and May. Lagged NAO indices in February and August (9 or 10 yr) had a positive relationship to the commercial stock of P. camtschaticus. These findings suggest that temperature conditions of current and previous year affect natural mortality of larvae and juvenile red king crabs. Warmer temperature conditions lead to increased biomass of red king crab food items. Negative correlations between climatic indices and the red king crab stocks may be associated with predator pressure on juvenile red king crabs or higher mortality because of predator or parasite pressure and diseases. The associations between stock indices and environmental variables could help better predict recruitment patterns of P. camtschaticus.

Analysing the teleconnection systems affecting the climate of the Carpathian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristóf, Erzsébet; Bartholy, Judit; Pongrácz, Rita

2017-04-01

Nowadays, the increase of the global average near-surface air temperature is unequivocal. Atmospheric low-frequency variabilities have substantial impacts on climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation. Therefore, assessing their effects is essential to improve global and regional climate model simulations for the 21st century. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the best-known atmospheric teleconnection patterns affecting the Carpathian Basin in Central Europe. Besides NAO, we aim to analyse other interannual-to-decadal teleconnection patterns, which might have significant impacts on the Carpathian Basin, namely, the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern, the Scandinavian pattern, the Mediterranean Oscillation, and the North-Sea Caspian Pattern. For this purpose primarily the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis dataset and multivariate statistical methods are used. The indices of each teleconnection pattern and their correlations with temperature and precipitation will be calculated for the period of 1961-1990. On the basis of these data first the long range (i. e. seasonal and/or annual scale) forecast ability is evaluated. Then, we aim to calculate the same indices of the relevant teleconnection patterns for the historical and future simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and compare them against each other using statistical methods. Our ultimate goal is to examine all available CMIP5 models and evaluate their abilities to reproduce the selected teleconnection systems. Thus, climate predictions for the 21st century for the Carpathian Basin may be improved using the best-performing models among all CMIP5 model simulations.

Length of the solar cycle influence on the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Tesouro, M.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the length of the solar cycle on the relationship North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship is different according to the length of the solar cycle. When the sunspot cycle is 10 or 11 years long, wintertime NAO and NHT are positively correlated, being the signal more intense during 11 years period, but when the sunspot cycle is longer (12 years) correlations between wintertime NAO and NHT are not significant. In fact there are significant negative correlations between wintertime NAO and spring NHT, with predictive potential.

Tropical Pacific forcing on decadal-to-centennial NAO-dominated precipitation variability in northern Mediterranean over the past 6500 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, H. M.; Shen, C. C.; Michel, V.; Jiang, X.; Mii, H. S.; Wang, Y.; Valensi, P.

2017-12-01

We present a multi-annual-resolved absolute-dated stalagmite-inferred precipitation record, with age precision as good as ±2 years, from northern Italy, to reflect North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics since 6.5 ka (thousand years ago, before 1950 C.E.). Our record features millennial precipitation fluctuations punctuated by several centennial-scale drought periods centered at 5.6, 6.2, 4.2, 3.0 and 2.3 ka. The phase relationship with previous NAO-sensitive records suggests a multi-millennial southward migration of the northern Westerlies and enhanced NAO variability from the middle- to late-Holocene. We also found the multi-decadal to centennial rainfall amount could dramatically vary within few decades, possibly affecting ancient Mediterranean civilizations. Concurrence between northern Mediterranean precipitation and western tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records suggests the remote forcing on this NAO-dominated rainfall. We argue that the irregular NAO change nowadays could be related to high frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and might cause an inevitable abrupt hydroclimate change and irreparable impacts on the regional human society in the near future.

Intraseasonal variability of winter precipitation over central asia and the western tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2013 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Heng; Liu, Xiaodong; Dong, Buwen

2017-09-01

Winter precipitation over Central Asia and the western Tibetan Plateau (CAWTP) is mainly a result of the interaction between the westerly circulation and the high mountains around the plateau. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), linear regression and composite analysis were used to analyze winter daily precipitation and other meteorological elements in this region from 1979 to 2013, in order to understand how interactions between the regional circulation and topography affect the intraseasonal variability in precipitation. The SVD analysis shows that the winter daily precipitation variability distribution is characterized by a dipole pattern with opposite signs over the northern Pamir Plateau and over the Karakoram Himalaya, similar to the second mode of EOF analysis. This dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly is associated with local anomalies in both the 700 hPa moisture transport and the 500 hPa geopotential height and is probably caused by oscillations in the regional and large-scale circulations, which can influence the westerly disturbance tracks and water vapor transport. The linear regression shows that the anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over CAWTP corresponds to an anti-phase variation of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the southern and northern North Atlantic 10 days earlier (at 95% significance level), that bears a similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The composite analysis reveals that the NAO impacts the downstream regions including CAWTP by controlling south-north two branches of the middle latitude westerly circulation around the Eurasian border. During the positive phases of the NAO, the northern branch of the westerly circulation goes around the northwest Tibetan Plateau, whereas the southern branch encounters the southwest Tibetan Plateau, which leads to reduced precipitation over the northern Pamir Plateau and increased precipitation over the Karakoram Himalaya, and vice versa.

Influence of North Atlantic modes on European climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

It is well known that the North Atlantic strongly influences European climate. Only few studies exist that focus on its impact on climate extremes. We are interested in these extremes and the processes and mechanisms behind it. For the analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) we use simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The NAO has a strong impact especially on European winter and the changes in minimum temperature are even larger than in maximum temperature. The impact of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability (AMV) on climate extremes is analyzed in ECHAM6 simulations forced with AMV warm and AMV cold sea surface temperature patterns. We analyze different extreme indices and try to understand the processes.

Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive Atmospheric Analogues for Multivariate weather Predictions, Raynaud et al. 2016). The analysis is performed for solar, wind and run-of-the river energy sources taken individually. For NAO sensitive regions, results shown important deviations between power generation distributions obtained either for strongly positive or strongly negative NAO events. We also used the optimal VRE combination provided by the 100 % solution project (http://thesolutionsproject.org/). We then discuss over the 12 considered regions the vulnerability to NAO events for the energy mix suggested by the 100 % solution project. Reference: Raynaud, D., Hingray, B., Zin, I., Anquetin, S., Debionne, S., Vautard, R., 2016. Atmospheric analogues for physically consistent scenarios of surface weather in Europe and Maghreb. Int. J. Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.4844

The North Atlantic Oscillation system and plant phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hubálek, Zdenek

2016-05-01

The onset of flowering in 78 wild and domesticated terrestrial plant species recorded in South Moravia (Czech Republic) from 1965 to 2014 was correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the preceding winter. Flowering occurred significantly earlier following positive winter NAO phases (causing spring to be warmer than normal in Central Europe) in nearly all early-flowering (March, April) species; high Pearson correlation values were recorded in, e.g., goat willow, spring snowflake, golden bell, cornelian cherry, sweet violet, cherry plum, grape hyacinth, apricot, blackthorn, common dandelion, cherry, southern magnolia, common apple, cuckoo flower, European bird cherry, and cherry laurel. In contrast, the timing of later-flowering plant species (May to July) did not correlate significantly with the winter NAO index. It was found that local temperature is obviously a proximate factor of plant phenology, while the winter NAO is the ultimate factor, affecting temperature and other meteorological phenomena in Central Europe during spring season.

Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenjun; Wang, Ziqi; Stuecker, Malte F.; Turner, Andrew G.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Geng, Xin

2018-02-01

While significant improvements have been made in understanding how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts both North American and Asian climate, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains less clear. Observations indicate that ENSO exhibits a highly complex relationship with the NAO-associated atmospheric circulation. One critical contribution to this ambiguous ENSO/NAO relationship originates from ENSO's diversity in its spatial structure. In general, both eastern (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events tend to be accompanied by a negative NAO-like atmospheric response. However, for two different types of La Niña the NAO response is almost opposite. Thus, the NAO responses for the CP ENSO are mostly linear, while nonlinear NAO responses dominate for the EP ENSO. These contrasting extra-tropical atmospheric responses are mainly attributed to nonlinear air-sea interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. The local atmospheric response to the CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is highly linear since the air-sea action center is located within the Pacific warm pool, characterized by relatively high climatological SSTs. In contrast, the EP ENSO SST anomalies are located in an area of relatively low climatological SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Here only sufficiently high positive SST anomalies during EP El Niño events are able to overcome the SST threshold for deep convection, while hardly any anomalous convection is associated with EP La Niña SSTs that are below this threshold. This ENSO/NAO relationship has important implications for NAO seasonal prediction and places a higher requirement on models in reproducing the full diversity of ENSO.

Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in decadal temperature trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iles, Carley; Hegerl, Gabriele

2017-11-01

Global temperatures have undergone periods of enhanced warming and pauses over the last century, with greater variations at local scales due to internal variability of the climate system. Here we investigate the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in decadal temperature trends in the Northern Hemisphere for periods with large decadal NAO trends. Using a regression based technique we find a best estimate that trends in the NAO more than halved (reduced by 57%, 5%-95%: 47%-63%) the winter warming over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics (NH; 30N-90N) from 1920-1971 and account for 45% (±14%) of the warming there from 1963-1995, with larger impacts on regional scales. Over the period leading into the so-called warming hiatus, 1989-2013, the NAO reduced NH winter warming to around one quarter (24%; 19%-31%) of what it would have been, and caused large negative regional trends, for example, in Northern Eurasia. Warming is more spatially uniform across the Northern Hemisphere after removing the NAO influence in winter, and agreement with multi-model mean simulated trends improves. The impact of the summer NAO is much weaker, but still discernible over Europe, North America and Greenland, with the downward trend in the summer NAO from 1988-2012 reducing warming by about a third in Northern Europe and a half in North America. A composite analysis using CMIP5 control runs suggests that the ocean response to prolonged NAO trends may increase the influence of decadal NAO trends compared to estimates based on interannual regressions, particularly in the Arctic. Results imply that the long-term NAO trends over the 20th century alternately masked or enhanced anthropogenic warming, and will continue to temporarily offset or enhance its effects in the future.

Understanding the NAO from Iberian and UK paleoclimate records. The NAOSIPUK project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Toney, Jaime L.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Slaymark, Charlotte; José Ramos-Román, Maria; Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Anderson, R. Scott

2017-04-01

The main goal of the NAOSIPUK project was to understand the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the Holocene, because the NAO is one major climate mode influencing climate patterns across Europe, and therefore, economy and society (Hurrell, 1995). We analysed several sedimentary records in two regions with opposing NAO responses. Our sedimentary surface survey from numerous lakes and bogs, led to further investigation of four records in the southern Iberian Peninsula and three in the central/northern UK. Past environments of the different sites were analysed using pollen and charcoal analysis, organic and inorganic geochemistry analyses, and sedimentary and geophysical surveys were performed. This work compares general environmental trends in both regions as deduced from the organic matter from bulk sediment to get an idea of the organic matter source, as well as specific organic compounds extracted from the sediment, such as leaf waxes (n-alkanes), algae-related compounds (diols and alkenones), and bacteria-related compounds (hopanes), to specify the sources of the organic matter, environmental temperature ranges, as well as hydrological changes. Our preliminary results show that the palaeoenvironmental indices developed from n-alkanes agree with the variations deduced from the carbon and nitrogen atomic ratios, as well as the carbon isotopic composition from bulk sediments in southern Iberia records. Interestingly, these indices show that some locations display opposite trends from one another, and are used to distinguish regional versus local effects of climate change, human impacts, and aeolian dust inputs. During the late Holocene solar forcing and NAO fluctuations are the main drivers of the environmental evolution in most of the Iberian and UK sites. However, we do detect the influence of the NAO in the temperatures oscillations of the studied sites in southern Iberia. This influence is much more important in the north/central UK sites. The regional comparison between north/central UK and southern Iberia shows a more stable middle Holocene (from ˜7.0 to ˜5.0 cal ky BP) at higher latitudes. On the other hand, the environmental and climatic changes in southern Spain are abrupt during this period. This might be related to the beginning or increasing influence of the NAO during the middle Holocene, which is coeval with a change in the precipitation source in this area. The UK records mainly show abrupt environmental changes between 4.5 and 4.0 cal ky BP and during the last millennia. These environmental changes are especially abrupt in both areas during the last one-hundred years, agreeing with the regional and global industrial development. References Hurrell, J.W., 1995. Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation. Science 269, 676-679. NAOSIPUK. http://www.naosipuk.org. Last access: 9th January 2017.

Subregional precipitation climate of the Caribbean and relationships with ENSO and NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Mark; Malmgren, BjöRn A.; Winter, Amos

2007-08-01

Thirty-five meteorological stations encompassing the Caribbean region (Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados) were analyzed over the time interval 1951-1981 to assess regional precipitation patterns and their relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Application of factor analysis to these series revealed the existence of four geographically distinct precipitation regions, (C1) western Cuba and northwestern Bahamas, (C2) Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas, (C3) Dominican Republic and northwestern Puerto Rico, and (C4) eastern Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados. This regionalization is related to different annual cycles and interannual fluctuations of rainfall. The annual cycle is more unimodal and largest in the northwest Caribbean (C1) and becomes increasingly bimodal toward lower latitudes (C4) as expected. Year-to-year variations of precipitation are compared with two well-known climatic indices. The ENSO relationship, represented by Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures (SST), is positive and stable at all lags, but tends to reverse over the SE Caribbean (C4) in late summer. The NAO influence is weak and seasonally dependent. Early summer rainfall in the northwest Caribbean (C1) increases under El Niño conditions. Clusters 2 and 3 are less influenced by the global predictors and more regional in character.

Late Holocene forest dynamics in the Gulf of Gaeta (central Mediterranean) in relation to NAO variability and human impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Rita, Federico; Lirer, Fabrizio; Bonomo, Sergio; Cascella, Antonio; Ferraro, Luciana; Florindo, Fabio; Insinga, Donatella Domenica; Lurcock, Pontus Conrad; Margaritelli, Giulia; Petrosino, Paola; Rettori, Roberto; Vallefuoco, Mattia; Magri, Donatella

2018-01-01

A new high-resolution pollen record, spanning the last five millennia, is presented from the Gulf of Gaeta (Tyrrhenian Sea, central Italy), with the aim of verifying if any vegetation change occurred in the central Mediterranean region in relation to specific well-known global and/or regional climate events, including the 4.2 ka event, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), and to detect possible vegetation changes related to still under-investigated climate signals, for example the so-called "Bond 2" cold event around 2.8 ka BP. The vegetation dynamics of the Gaeta record shows a recurrent pattern of forest increase and decline punctuating the mid- and late Holocene. When the timing of these patterns is compared with the climate proxy data available from the same core (planktonic foraminifera assemblages and oxygen stable isotope record) and with the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index, it clearly appears that the main driver for the forest fluctuations is climate, which may even overshadow the effects of human activity. We have found a clear correspondence between phases with negative NAO index and forest declines. In particular, around 4200 cal BP, a drop in AP (Arboreal Pollen) confirms the clearance recorded in many sites in Italy south of 43°N. Around 2800 cal BP, a vegetation change towards open conditions is found at a time when the NAO index clearly shows negative values. Between 800 and 1000 AD, a remarkable forest decline, coeval with a decrease in the frequencies of both Castanea and Olea, matches a shift in the oxygen isotope record towards positive values, indicating cooler temperatures, and a negative NAO. Between 1400-1850 AD, in the time period chronologically corresponding to the LIA (Little Ice Age), the Gaeta record shows a clear decline of the forest cover, particularly evident after 1550 AD, once again in correspondence with negative NAO index.

Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves.

PubMed

Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein

2003-07-01

Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.

Large-scale Controls on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity on Seasonal Time Scales

PubMed Central

Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.; Auer, Benjamin M.

2018-01-01

Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic), led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low- latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes, and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to sub-tropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO. PMID:29928071

Connections of Precipitable Water Vapor and Total Ozone Anomalies over European Russia with the North Atlantic Oscillation: Specific Features of Summer 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitnov, S. A.; Mokhov, I. I.; Bezverkhny, V. A.

2017-12-01

Based on the measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and total column ozone (TCO) from the MODIS satellite instruments (Aqua/Terra platforms), the connections between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the anomalies in PWV and TCO over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 are analyzed. It is found that the PWV (TCO) anomalies over the northern ER in summer 2010 positively (negatively) correlated with the NAO, and the local correlations reached 0.68 (-0.55). The physical mechanisms of the correlations are discussed. A comparative analysis of the relationships between the NAO and the regional PWV and TCO anomalies over ER during the summer seasons of 2000-2015 is carried out.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on winter precipitation totals in Slovakia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leskova, Livia; Stastny, Pavel

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important circulation mode in the Northern Hemisphere, which impacts climate in Europe in various ways. The strongest impacts of oscillation on air temperature and precipitation regime are detected in Scandinavia and Mediterranean region, but impacts have opposite effect. Therefore, assessment of the relation between NAO and precipitation totals seems to be interesting in Slovakia, because of the country location in the centre between above mentioned regions. Our former research detected only the relation between NAO and a winter precipitation totals in Slovakia. More detailed aspects of this relation is analysed in this paper. A correlation method was used at two resolution levels, which detected opposite spatial impact of NAO on above mentioned seasonal precipitation. The first generalised level was based on the precipitation regions, which were distinguished on the base of characteristic precipitation regime of individual regions. The second level was more detailed and the correlation method was applied on data of every individual rain gauge station from the set of 202 rain gauge stations with complete data for period 1901 - 2010 in Slovakia. In the northern part of the country (Orava and Kysuce regions), there was found the positive correlation. Increase in the winter precipitation totals was recorded in the same regions and general precipitation trend in this area was similar to the trend in used Hurrell oscillation index. It means, following the increasing trend in oscillation course, we can also expect the increase in precipitation totals in these regions in the near future. In a southward direction, this correlation changed to the negative values and the most negative correlation coefficients were reached in the lowland regions (Podunajská and Východoslovenská nížina) and in the region of Juhoslovenská kotlina. This last mentioned region is located in multiple precipitation shadow of Carpathians, whereas the precipitation shadow is lower in other regions. Therefore, we suppose, the impact of NAO is strongly influenced by barrier effect of Carpathian Mountains. It can also be expected the important impact of Mediterranean oscillation in the last mentioned regions. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The article was prepared with the support of grant VEGA 1/1155/12.

Differential modulation of eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) disease parasites by the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soniat, Thomas M.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Klinck, John M.; Powell, Eric N.

2009-02-01

The eastern oyster ( Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time-frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.

Evaluation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Impact on Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation in the Atlantic Region in Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, V. A.; Cherenkova, E. A.

2018-02-01

The influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic region in summer for the period of 1950-2015 is investigated. It is shown that the intensification of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with significant changes in sea level pressure anomalies in the main centers of action (over Greenland and the British Isles) occurred while the North Atlantic was cooler. Sea surface temperature anomalies, which are linked to the AMO in the summer season, affect both the NAO index and fluctuations of the Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) centers of action. The positive (negative) phase of the AMO is characterized by a combination of negative (positive) values of the NAO and EAWR indices. The dominance of the opposite phases of the teleconnection indices in summer during the warm North Atlantic and in its colder period resulted in differences in the regional climate in Europe.

The influences of the AMO and NAO on the sedimentary infill in an Azores Archipelago lake since ca. 1350 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Sáez, Alberto; Bao, Roberto; Raposeiro, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Doolittle, Sara; Masqué, Pere; Rull, Valentí; Gonçalves, Vítor; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Rubio-Inglés, María J.; Sánchez-López, Guiomar; Giralt, Santiago

2017-07-01

The location of the Azores Archipelago in the North Atlantic makes this group of islands an excellent setting to study the long-term behavior of large oceanic and atmospheric climate dynamic patterns, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we present the impacts of these patterns on Lake Empadadas (Azores Archipelago) from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) - Little Ice Age (LIA) transition to the present based on sedimentological, geochemical and biological characterizations of the sedimentary record. Multivariate analyses of a number of proxies including X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRD), total organic and inorganic carbon (TOC and TIC) and diatom life forms abundance reveal that the sedimentary infill evolution has been controlled by (i) fluctuations in the lake level and (ii) variations in organic matter accumulation. Both processes are governed by climate variability and modulated by anthropogenic activities associated with changes on the lake catchment. Changes in these two sedimentary processes have been used to infer five stages: (i) the MCA-LIA transition (ca. 1350-1450 CE) was characterized by a predominantly positive AMO phase, which led to intermediate lake levels and high organic matter concentration; (ii) the first half of the LIA (ca. 1450-1600 CE) was characterized by predominant lowstand conditions and intermediate organic matter deposition mainly related to negative AMO phases; (iii) the second half of the LIA (ca. 1600-1850 CE) was characterized by negative AMO and NAO phases, implying intermediate lake levels and high organic matter deposition; (iv) the Industrial era (ca. 1850-1980 CE) was characterized by the lowest lake level and organic matter accumulation associated with negative AMO phases; and (v) the period spanning between 1980 CE and the present reveals the highest lake levels and low organic matter deposition, being associated with very positive AMO conditions. At decadal-to-centennial scales, the influence of the AMO on Azorean climate plays a larger role than previously thought. In fact, the AMO appears to exert a stronger influence compared to the NAO, which is the main mode of climate variability at shorter time scales.

Links of the significant wave height distribution in the Mediterranean sea with the Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.

2008-06-01

This study analyzes the link between the SWH (Significant Wave Height) distribution in the Mediterranean Sea during the second half of the 20th century and the Northern Hemisphere SLP (Sea Level Pressure) teleconnection patterns. The SWH distribution is computed using the WAM (WAve Model) forced by the surface wind fields provided by the ERA-40 reanalysis for the period 1958-2001. The time series of mid-latitude teleconnection patterns are downloaded from the NOAA web site. This study shows that several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean, especially in its western part during the cold season: East Atlantic Pattern (EA), Scandinavian Pattern (SCA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern (EA/WR) and East Pacific/ North Pacific Pattern (EP/NP). Though the East Atlantic pattern exerts the largest influence, it is not sufficient to characterize the dominant variability. NAO, though relevant, has an effect smaller than EA and comparable to other patterns. Some link results from possibly spurious structures. Patterns which have a very different global structure are associated to similar spatial features of the wave variability in the Mediterranean Sea. These two problems are, admittedly, shortcomings of this analysis, which shows the complexity of the response of the Mediterranean SWH to global scale SLP teleconnection patterns.

Cod Collapse and the Climate in the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, K. C.; Oremus, K. L.; Gaines, S.

2014-12-01

Effective fisheries management requires forecasting population changes. We find a negative relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and subsequently surveyed biomass and catch of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, off the New England coast. A 1-unit NAO increase is associated with a 17% decrease in surveyed biomass of age-1 cod the following year. This relationship persists as the cod mature, such that observed NAO can be used to forecast future adult biomass. We also document that an NAO event lowers catch for up to 15 years afterward. In contrast to forecasts by existing stock assessment models, our NAO-driven statistical model successfully hindcasts the recent collapse of New England cod fisheries following strong NAO events in 2007 and 2008 (see figure). This finding can serve as a template for forecasting other fisheries affected by climatic conditions.

Understanding the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Effects in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo M.; Serrano, Sergio M. Vicente

2010-11-01

ESF-MedCLIVAR Workshop on Hydrological, Socioeconomic and Ecological Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Mediterranean; Zaragoza, Spain, 24-27 May 2010; According to the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, the Mediterranean basin represents one of the most important hot spots of climate change in the world, with recent trends toward a hotter and drier climate being related to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Among these patterns the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the most important one and the only one that exerts a clear influence throughout the year, although with stronger intensity and extension during winter. In the framework of the European Science Foundation's Mediterranean Climate Variability and Predictability (MedCLIVAR) program (http://www.medclivar.eu/), a thematic workshop devoted to the hydrological, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of the NAO in the Mediterranean area was held in Spain. The main objective of this 3-day workshop was to foster interaction in this increasingly interdisciplinary topic, in particular, among climatologists, hydrologists, geographers, agronomists, biologists, and other scientists. The workshop was attended by 62 participants from 15 different countries and included a mix of senior scientists and graduate students. The workshop was divided into five sessions focusing on (1) natural hazards, including droughts, severe precipitations, floods, heat waves, and cold spells; (2) vegetation activity and agriculture production; (3) natural ecosystems and environment, including forest dynamics, fisheries, dynamics of animal populations, and air quality; (4) geomorphology, including landslides and debris flows, erosivity mechanisms, and surface erosion processes; and (5) renewable energies production, including hydraulic, eolic, and solar.

Combined influences of seasonal East Atlantic Pattern and North Atlantic Oscillation to excite Atlantic multidecadal variability in a climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Cassou, Christophe

2015-01-01

The physical processes underlying the internal component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) are investigated from a 1,000-yr pre-industrial control simulation of the CNRM-CM5 model. The low-frequency fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are shown to be the main precursor for the model AMV. The full life cycle of AMOC/AMV events relies on a complex time-evolving relationship with both North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) that must be considered from a seasonal perspective in order to isolate their action; the ocean is responsible for setting the multidecadal timescale of the fluctuations. AMOC rise leading to a warm phase of AMV is statistically preceded by wintertime NAO+ and EAP+ from ~Lag -40/-20 yrs. Associated wind stress anomalies induce an acceleration of the subpolar gyre (SPG) and enhanced northward transport of warm and saline subtropical water. Concurrent positive salinity anomalies occur in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Seas in link to local sea-ice decline; those are advected by the Eastern Greenland Current to the Labrador Sea participating to the progressive densification of the SPG and the intensification of ocean deep convection leading to AMOC strengthening. From ~Lag -10 yrs prior an AMOC maximum, opposite relationship is found with the NAO for both summer and winter seasons. Despite negative lags, NAO- at that time is consistent with the atmospheric response through teleconnection to the northward shift/intensification of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone in link to the ongoing warming of tropical north Atlantic basin due to AMOC rise/AMV build-up. NAO- acts as a positive feedback for the full development of the model AMV through surface fluxes but, at the same time, prepares its termination through negative retroaction on AMOC. Relationship between EAP+ and AMOC is also present in summer from ~Lags -30/+10 yrs while winter EAP- is favored around the AMV peak. Based on additional atmospheric-forced experiments, both are interpreted as the local seasonal-dependent atmospheric response to warmer North Atlantic. Finally, advection of fresher water from the tropical basin created by local atmosphere/ocean anomalous circulation on one hand and from the Arctic on the other hand due to large-scale sea ice melting leads to decrease of density in the SPG and contributes terminating the model AMOC/AMV events. All together, the combined effects of NAO and EAP, their intertwined seasonal forcing/forced role upon/by the ocean and the primary role of salinity anomalies associated with oceanic dynamical changes acting as an integrator are responsible in CNRM-CM5 for an irregular and damped mode of variability for AMOC/AMV that takes about 35-40 (15-20) years to build up (dissipate).

Internal Climatic Influences From Secular To Multi-decadal Scales: Comparison Of NAO Reconstructions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolle, M.; Debret, M.; Massei, N.; de Vernal, A.

2017-12-01

In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major dominant mode of variability in winter atmospheric circulation, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks in the North Atlantic sector. To understand the role of this internal climatic oscillations on the past climate variability, several proxy-based reconstructions of the NAO were published during the last decades. Two of them are available during the past 1,200 years: a first NAO reconstruction published by Trouet et al. (2009) and a second proposed by Ortega et al. (2015). The major discrepancy between the two reconstructions concerns the transition period between the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age. The first NAO reconstruction shows persistent positive phases during the MCA (AD 1000-1300) but this dominant trend is not highlighted in the reconstruction proposed by Ortega et al. (2015), asking the question of the influence of predictors used to reconstruct the NAO signal during the last millennia. In these study, we compare the two NAO reconstructions in order to determine the effect of bi-proxy or multi-proxy approach on the signal reconstructed. Using statistical and wavelet analysis methods, we conclude that the number of predictors used do not have impact on the signal reconstruct. The two reconstructions signals are characterized by similar variabilities expressed from multi-decadal to multi-secular scales. The major trend difference seems to be link to the type of the predictor and particularly the use of Greenland ice cores in the reconstruction proposed in 2015.

East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) interplay over the Iberian Peninsula for the last two millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Sánchez-López, G.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Trigo, R.; Toro, M.; Granados, I.; Sáez, A.; Masque, P.; Pueyo, J. J.; Rubio-Inglés, M. J.; Giralt, S.

2016-12-01

The multi-proxy approach from sediments of an Iberian alpine lake allowed us to establish the climatic conditions in the Iberian Central Range (ICR) over the last two millennia. The comparison with other Iberian reconstructions permitted to identify possible forcing climate mechanisms. Climatic conditions would be transmitted to the sediments via the frequency of intense run-off events, derived from rain-on-snow events, and the lake productivity, ruled by ice-cover duration. The early Roman Period (RP; 200 BC - 350 AD) in the ICR was characterized by oscillations of intense run-off events, as a consequence of an alternation between cold and warm periods. From the second half of the RP to the onset of the Early Middle Ages (EMA; 350 - 500 AD) an increase in the intense run-off events suggests warm conditions, although a noticeable decrease during the rest of the EMA (500 - 900 AD) evidences a shift to very cold temperatures in this region. In terms of humidity, both RP and EMA climatic periods displayed a transition from a dry to a wet scenario that led to a decrease in lake productivity. These climatic conditions have been registered by other reconstructions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), and a North-South humidity gradient could be envisaged, although spatial climatic discrepancies were significant. Precipitation and temperature in the IP present a more homogeneous spatial pattern when the NAO and EA modes have the same sign than when they have the opposite sign. Hence, a predominance of periods with NAO - EA in opposite phases could explain the climatic spatial heterogeneity in the IP during these two periods. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900 - 1300 AD) in the ICR was characterized by warm and dry conditions represented by an increase in exceptional run-off episodes and lake productivity whereas the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300 - 1850 AD) showed the opposite scenario. Similar climatic conditions were registered in all the IP, reflecting a spatial climatic homogeneity. The climatic conditions attributed to the MCA and the LIA are consistent with a change from a predominant positive phase of the NAO during the MCA to a prevalence negative NAO phase during the LIA. Additionally, a predominance in the coincidence of NAO - EA phases (both modes positive during the MCA and both negative during the LIA) could reinforce this spatial homogeneity.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern hemisphere temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Luis; de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; García, Ricardo; Hernández, Emiliano; Ribera, Pedro

2003-01-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. The results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated - a result assumed up to the moment - but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [Kodera, Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002) 14557-14560] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases.

Changes in North Atlantic Oscillation drove Population Migrations and the Collapse of the Western Roman Empire.

PubMed

Drake, B Lee

2017-04-27

Shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from 1-2 to 0-1 in four episodes increased droughts on the Roman Empire's periphery and created push factors for migrations. These climatic events are associated with the movements of the Cimbri and Teutones from 113-101 B.C., the Marcomanni and Quadi from 164 to 180 A.D., the Goths in 376 A.D., and the broad population movements of the Migration Period from 500 to 600 A.D. Weakening of the NAO in the instrumental record of the NAO have been associated with a shift to drought in the areas of origin for the Cimbri, Quadi, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Huns, and Slavs. While other climate indices indicate deteriorating climate after 200 A.D. and cooler conditions after 500 A.D., the NAO may indicate a specific cause for the punctuated history of migrations in Late Antiquity. Periodic weakening of the NAO caused drought in the regions of origin for tribes in antiquity, and may have created a powerful push factor for human migration. While climate change is frequently considered as a threat to sustainability, its role as a conflict amplifier in history may be one of its largest impacts on populations.

Cycles in oceanic teleconnections and global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seip, Knut L.; Grøn, Øyvind

2018-06-01

Three large ocean currents are represented by proxy time series: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We here show how proxies for the currents interact with each other and with the global temperature anomaly (GTA). Our results are obtained by a novel method, which identifies running average leading-lagging (LL) relations, between paired series. We find common cycle times for a paired series of 6-7 and 25-28 years and identify years when the LL relations switch. Switching occurs with 18.4 ± 14.3-year intervals for the short 6-7-year cycles and with 27 ± 15-year intervals for the 25-28-year cycles. During the period 1940-1950, the LL relations for the long cycles were circular (nomenclature x leads y: x → y): GTA → NAO → SOI → PDO → GTA. However, after 1960, the LL relations become more complex and there are indications that GTA leads to both NAO and PDO. The switching years are related to ocean current tie points and reversals reported in the literature.

Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-04-01

The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

The Characteristics of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Eastern United States and the Influence of Atmospheric Circulation Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, E. T.

2017-12-01

Periods of extreme cold impact the mid-latitudes every winter. Depending on the magnitude and duration of the occurrence, extremely cold periods may be deemed cold air outbreaks (CAOs). Atmospheric teleconnections impact the displacement of polar air, but the relationship between the primary teleconnections and the manifestation of CAOs is not fully understood. A systematic CAO index was developed from 20 surface weather stations based on a set of criteria concerning magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. Statistical analyses of the data were used to determine the overall trends in CAOs. Clusters of sea level pressure (SLP), 100mb, and 10mb geopotential height anomalies were mapped utilizing self-organizing maps (SOMs) to understand the surface, upper-tropospheric Polar Vortex (PV), and stratospheric PV patterns preceding CAOs. The Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnections were used as variables to explain the magnitude and location of mid-latitude Arctic air displacement. Persistently negative SLP anomalies across the Arctic and North Atlantic were evident 1 - 2 weeks prior to the CAOs throughout the winter. The upper-tropospheric and stratospheric PV were found to be persistently weak/weakening prior to mid-winter CAOs and predominantly strong and off-centered prior to early and late season CAOs. Negative phases of the AO and NAO were favored prior to CAOs, while the PNA favored a near-neutral phase. This method of CAO and synoptic pattern characterization benefits from a continuous pattern representation and provides insight as to how specific teleconnections impact the atmospheric flow in a way that leads to CAOs in the eastern U.S.

Effects of teleconnection patterns on the atmospheric routes, precipitation and deposition amounts in the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izquierdo, Rebeca; Alarcón, Marta; Aguillaume, Laura; Àvila, Anna

2014-06-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been identified as one of the atmospheric patterns which mostly influence the temporal evolution of precipitation and temperature in the Mediterranean area. Recently, the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) has also been proposed to describe the precipitation variability in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. This paper examines whether the chemical signature and/or the chemical deposition amounts recorded over NE Iberian Peninsula are influenced by these climatic variability patterns. Results show a more relevant role of the WeMO compared to NAO in the deposition of either marine (Cl-, Na+, Mg2+) or anthropogenic pollutants (H+, NH4+, NO3- and SO42-). A cluster classification of provenances indicated that in winter (December to March) fast Atlantic air flows correspond to positive WeMO indices, while negative WeMOi are associated to Northeastern and Southwestern circulations. The negative phase of WeMO causes the entry of air masses from the Mediterranean into the Iberian Peninsula, that are enriched with marine ions and ions of anthropogenic origin (NH4+, NO3- and SO42-). For these later, this suggests the advection over the Mediterranean of polluted air masses from southern Europe and the scavenging and deposition of this pollution by precipitation during the WeMO negative phases. This will carry transboundary pollutants to the NE Iberian Peninsula. However, local pollutants may also contribute, as precipitation events from the Mediterranean and the Atlantic (associated to both WeMO phases) may incorporate emissions that accumulate locally during the winter anticyclonic episodes typical of the region.

Sub-regional Precipitation Climate of the Caribbean and Relationships With ENSO and NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, A.; Jury, M.; Malmgren, B.

2006-12-01

Thirty-five meteorological stations encompassing the Caribbean region (Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Maarten, and Barbados) were analyzed over the time interval 1951-1981 to assess regional precipitation patterns and their relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Application of factor analysis to these series revealed the existence of four geographically distinct precipitation regions: (1) western Cuba and northwestern Bahamas, (2) Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southeastern Bahamas, (3) Dominican Republic and northwestern Puerto Rico, and (4) eastern Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Marteen, and Barbados. This regionalization is related to different annual cycles and interannual fluctuations of rainfall. The annual cycle is unimodal and largest in the northwest Caribbean (1), and becomes increasingly bimodal toward lower latitudes (4) as expected. Year-to-year variations of precipitation are compared with two well known climatic indices. The ENSO relationship, represented by Niño3.4 SST, is positive and stable at all lags, but tends to reverse over the SE Caribbean (4) in late summer. The NAO influence is weak and seasonally dependent. Early summer rainfall in the northwest Caribbean (1) increases under El Niño conditions. Clusters 2 and 3 are less influenced by the global predictors and more regional in character. Previous related work sub-divided the Caribbean into two to three regions. Our work also shows that the main Caribbean basin should be divided into two clusters and not one homogeneous region as has previously been reported.

Mediterranean Thermohaline Response to Large-Scale Winter Atmospheric Forcing in a High-Resolution Ocean Model Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusinato, Eleonora; Zanchettin, Davide; Sannino, Gianmaria; Rubino, Angelo

2018-04-01

Large-scale circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic and Euro-Mediterranean regions described by dominant climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the East Atlantic/Western Russian (EAWR) and the Mediterranean Oscillation Index (MOI), significantly affect interannual-to-decadal climatic and hydroclimatic variability in the Euro-Mediterranean region. However, whereas previous studies assessed the impact of such climate modes on air-sea heat and freshwater fluxes in the Mediterranean Sea, the propagation of these atmospheric forcing signals from the surface toward the interior and the abyss of the Mediterranean Sea remains unexplored. Here, we use a high-resolution ocean model simulation covering the 1979-2013 period to investigate spatial patterns and time scales of the Mediterranean thermohaline response to winter forcing from NAO, EA, EAWR and MOI. We find that these modes significantly imprint on the thermohaline properties in key areas of the Mediterranean Sea through a variety of mechanisms. Typically, density anomalies induced by all modes remain confined in the upper 600 m depth and remain significant for up to 18-24 months. One of the clearest propagation signals refers to the EA in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas: There, negative EA anomalies are associated to an extensive positive density response, with anomalies that sink to the bottom of the South Adriatic Pit within a 2-year time. Other strong responses are the thermally driven responses to the EA in the Gulf of Lions and to the EAWR in the Aegean Sea. MOI and EAWR forcing of thermohaline properties in the Eastern Mediterranean sub-basins seems to be determined by reinforcement processes linked to the persistency of these modes in multiannual anomalous states. Our study also suggests that NAO, EA, EAWR and MOI could critically interfere with internal, deep and abyssal ocean dynamics and variability in the Mediterranean Sea.

The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Tropospheric Distributions of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

2015-12-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the tropospheric distributions of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been quantified. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis, a combined meteorology and composition dataset for the period 2003-2012 (Innes et al., 2013), is used to investigate the composition of the troposphere and lower stratosphere in relation to the location of the storm track as well as other meteorological parameters over the North Atlantic associated with the different NAO phases. Cyclone tracks in the MACC Reanalysis compare well to the cyclone tracks in the widely-used ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the same 10-year period (cyclone tracking performed using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999)), as both are based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). A seasonal analysis is performed whereby the MACC reanalysis meteorological fields, O3 and CO mixing ratios are weighted by the monthly NAO index values. The location of the main storm track, which tilts towards high latitudes (toward the Arctic) during positive NAO phases to a more zonal location in the mid-latitudes (toward Europe) during negative NAO phases, impacts the location of both horizontal and vertical transport across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic. During positive NAO seasons, the persistence of cyclones over the North Atlantic coupled with a stronger Azores High promotes strong horizontal transport across the North Atlantic throughout the troposphere. In all seasons, significantly more intense cyclones occur at higher latitudes (north of ~50°C) during the positive phase of the NAO and in the southern mid-latitudes during the negative NAO phase. This impacts the location of stratospheric intrusions within the descending dry airstream behind the associated cold front of the extratropical cyclone and the venting of low-level pollution up into the free troposphere within the warm conveyor belt airstream which rises ahead of the cold front.

Inter-Relationship Between Subtropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature, Arctic Sea Ice Concentration, and the North Atlantic Oscillation in Recent Summers and Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Cullather, Richard I.; Nowicki, Sophie M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2017-01-01

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentration in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are investigated for the last 37 summers and winters (1980-2016). Lag-correlation of the STWCPSST×(-1) in spring with the NAO phase and SICBS in summer increases over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.4-0.5 with significance at 5 percent, while winter has strong correlations in approximately 1985-2005. Observational analysis and the atmospheric general circulation model experiments both suggest that STWCPSST warming acts to increase the Arctic geopotential height and temperature in the following season. This atmospheric response extends to Greenland, providing favorable conditions for developing the negative phase of the NAO. SIC and surface albedo tend to decrease over the Beaufort Sea in summer, linked to the positive surface net shortwave flux. Energy balance considering radiative and turbulent fluxes reveal that available energy that can heat surface is larger over the Arctic and Greenland and smaller over the south of Greenland, in response to the STWCPSST warming in spring. XXXX Arctic & Atlantic: Positive upper-level height/T anomaly over the Arctic and Greenland, and a negative anomaly over the central-eastern Atlantic, resembling the (-) phase of the NAO. Pacific: The negative height/T anomaly over the mid-latitudes, along with the positive anomaly over the STWCP, where 1degC warming above climatology is prescribed. Discussion: It is likely that the Arctic gets warm and the NAO is in the negative phase in response to the STWCP warming. But, there are other factors (e.g., internal variability) that contribute to determination of the NAO phase: not always the negative phase of the NAO in the event of STWCP warming (e.g.: recent winters and near neutral NAO in 2017 summer).

Past and future impact of North Atlantic teleconnection patterns on the hydroclimate of the Caspian catchment area in CESM1.2.2 and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nandini, Sri

2017-04-01

The Caspian Sea level has undergone dramatic variations of more than 3 m during the past century with important implications for the life of coastal people, economy and the ecosystem. The origin of these variations as well as future changes in the Caspian water budget are still a matter of debate. In this study, we examine the influence of the major seasonal North Atlantic teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic pattern (EA), the Scandinavian pattern (SCA), and the North Sea Caspian Pattern (NCP), on Caspian hydroclimate variability from 1850-2000 CE. Numerical experiments at different atmospheric grid resolutions (2° and 1°) are carried out with the coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2.2). We test model skills under different resolutions through validation against observational data by various statistical methods (Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Taylor diagrams, linear regressions and Spearman rank correlation). Results reveal the strongest simulated signal in winter (DJF) with high explained variances for 1° CESM1.2.2 NAO (39%) and EA (15.7%), similar to observational data. The model is unable to reproduce the SCA pattern in the third EOF, which is found in the observations. The modelled NAO has a strong influence on winter temperature and rainfall over the Caspian catchment area. A strong winter NCP induces above-average 2-meter temperatures over north Caspian region and lower-than-normal precipitation over the eastern Caspian sea. Our study suggests that the 1° version of CESM1.2.2 (with CAM5 atmosphere physics) shows adequate performance with respect to teleconnection maps during the historical period. Lastly, 1° model climate projections (2005-2100 CE) are performed with different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to examine potential changes in the teleconnection patterns and their influence on the Caspian region.

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change. 1; Respective Influences of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Climate Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.

2005-01-01

We utilize the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model and 8 different climate change experiments, many of them focused on stratospheric climate forcings, to assess the relative influence of tropospheric and stratospheric climate change on the extratropical circulation indices (Arctic Oscillation, AO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). The experiments are run in two different ways: with variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to allow for a full tropospheric climate response, and with specified SSTs to minimize the tropospheric change. The results show that tropospheric warming (cooling) experiments and stratospheric cooling (warming) experiments produce more positive (negative) AO/NAO indices. For the typical magnitudes of tropospheric and stratospheric climate changes, the tropospheric response dominates; results are strongest when the tropospheric and stratospheric influences are producing similar phase changes. Both regions produce their effect primarily by altering wave propagation and angular momentum transports, but planetary wave energy changes accompanying tropospheric climate change are also important. Stratospheric forcing has a larger impact on the NAO than on the AO, and the angular momentum transport changes associated with it peak in the upper troposphere, affecting all wavenumbers. Tropospheric climate changes influence both the A0 and NAO with effects that extend throughout the troposphere. For both forcings there is often vertical consistency in the sign of the momentum transport changes, obscuring the difference between direct and indirect mechanisms for influencing the surface circulation.

Trends in characteristics of daily rainfall in Northern Iberia: Is the NAO signal behind the observed variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saez de Cámara, E.; Gangoiti, G.; Alonso, L.; Iza, J.

2012-04-01

A trend analysis of intensity and frequency of daily precipitation over Northern Iberia (NIB), with a primary focus on extreme events, is presented. It is based on 14 NOAA-NCDC daily records covering the last 35 years (1973-2007) plus two centenarian databases sited in eastern NIB: San Sebastián (1929-2007) (daily resolution) and Bilbao (1857-2007) (monthly resolution). It is the first time that this interfacial region between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean has been studied with such a density of monitoring stations. Spatial and temporal characteristics and changes in rainfall's distribution have been analyzed using the suite of indices developed and recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection, Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI). They include annual and seasonal accumulated precipitation, number of dry and rainy days, and mean precipitation per rainy day, among others. The observed trends have been tested for statistical significance using the Mann-Kendall's non-parametric test. Additionally, links between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the precipitation in the aforementioned region have been explored. The analysis shows a significant tendency towards less intensive rainy days for the whole region together with a decreasing trend in the number of wet days for the Central NIB. The consequence is a decline of total rainfall, statistically significant in Central and Eastern NIB. The evolution to drier conditions may be seen in both annual and seasonal indices. Conversely, strong regional differences have been found in the response to the NAO signal: whereas the rainfall decrease in the Western NIB might be associated to the dominance of a positive mode of the NAO during the last decades, the lack of correlation between the NAO signal and the observed precipitation in the stations with significant decreases rises an important argument against a direct association. Using the global gridded 6-hourly NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data (1979-2010) we have found that each one of the conventional NAO positive and negative modes include a variety of circulation patterns, which are critical in the precipitation distribution within the Atlantic-Mediterranean interfacial area: the mountain range distribution inside the regional margins of the Mediterranean Sea influences the main moisture pathways triggering or inhibiting precipitation in different ways, depending on differences among the circulation patterns associated to a similar NAO positive or negative signal. This results in no correlation between the NAO signal and the rainfall anomalies within the mountain ranges and their associated rain shade regions surrounding the Mediterranean Basin. These findings stress the need of caution when using rainfall anomalies in the region as a proxy for NAO or vice-versa: maps will be shown with the influence of the NAO signal in the precipitation anomalies inside the continental area of Europe, including the whole Mediterranean.

Multidecadal Atlantic climate variability and its impact on marine pelagic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Victoria; Edwards, Martin; Olhede, Sofia C.

2014-05-01

A large scale analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) and climate variability over the North Atlantic and its interactions with plankton over the North East Atlantic was carried out to better understand what drives both temperature and species abundance. The spatio-temporal pattern of SST was found to correspond to known climate indices, namely the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spatial influence of these indices is heterogeneous. Although the AMO is present across all regions, it is most strongly represented in the SST signal in the subpolar gyre region. The NAO instead is strongly weighted in the North Sea and the pattern of its influence is oscillatory in space with a wavelength of approximately 6000 km. Natural oscillations might obscure the influence of climate change effects, making it difficult to determine how much of the variation is attributable to longer term trends. In order to separate the influences of different climate signals the SST signals were decomposed in to spatial and temporal components using principal component analysis (PCA). A similar analysis is carried out on various indicator species of plankton: Calanus finmarchicus, Phytoplankton Colour Index and total copepod abundance, as well as phytoplankton and zooplankton communities. By comparing the two outputs it is apparent that the dominant driver is the recent warming trend, which has a negative influence on C. finmarchicus and total copepods, but has a positive one on phytoplankton colour. However natural oscillations also influence the abundance of plankton, in particular the AMO is a driver of diatom abundance. Fourier principal component analysis, an approach which is novel in terms of the ecological data, was used to analyse the behaviour of various communities averaged over space. The zooplankton community is found to be primarily influenced by climate warming trends. The analysis provides compelling evidence for the hypothesis that cold water species are gradually being replaced by more temperate species in the North Atlantic. This may have detrimental effects for the entire marine ecosystem, by affecting on organisms such as fish larva for example. The second group, a phytoplankton subset consisting primarily of diatom species, is primarily influenced by the AMO rather than the average temperature trend. This result highlights the importance of natural oscillations to certain functional groups, in particular those subgroups which are less directly metabolically affected by changes in temperature.

Quantifying the impact of Teleconnections on Hydrologic Regimes in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change is being alleged to have led to the increased frequency of extreme flooding events and the resulting damages are severe, especially where the flood-plain population densities are higher. Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on improving real-time flood forecasting models. Recent studies show that, in the state of Texas, extreme regional floods are actually triggered by abruptly higher precipitation intensities. Such intensities are further driven by sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies, defined by certain patterns of teleconnections. In this study, climate variability is defined on the basis of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related teleconnections: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Hydrologic extremes will be modeled using probabilistic distributions. Leave-One-Out-Test (LOOT) will be employed to address the outliers in the extremes, and to eventually obtain the robust correlation coefficient. The variation in the effect of most correlated teleconnection with respect to hydrologic attributes will be investigated for the entire state. This study will attempt to identify potential teleconnection inputs for data-driven hydrologic models under varying climatic conditions.

Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

2018-02-01

Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

Atmospheric Circulation and West Greenland Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger, J.; Birkel, S. D.; Maasch, K. A.; Schuenemann, K. C.; Mayewski, P. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.

2016-12-01

The surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet has declined substantially in recent decades across West Greenland with important implications for global sea level and freshwater resources. Here, we investigate changes in heat and moisture delivery to West Greenland through changes in atmospheric circulation in order to gain insight into possible future climate. Particular focus is placed on the role of known climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), in influencing the intensity, frequency, and track of cyclones across the North Atlantic. This study utilizes multiple daily climate reanalysis models (CFSR, ERA-Interim, JRA-55) in addition to observational data. Preliminary results indicate a primary influence from the NAO, with a secondary influence from the low frequency oscillation connected to the AMO. Work is ongoing, and a complete synthesis will be presented at the fall meeting.

What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

2013-04-01

We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

Inter-annual and decadal changes in teleconnections drive continental-scale synchronization of tree reproduction.

PubMed

Ascoli, Davide; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Turco, Marco; Conedera, Marco; Drobyshev, Igor; Maringer, Janet; Motta, Renzo; Hacket-Pain, Andrew

2017-12-20

Climate teleconnections drive highly variable and synchronous seed production (masting) over large scales. Disentangling the effect of high-frequency (inter-annual variation) from low-frequency (decadal trends) components of climate oscillations will improve our understanding of masting as an ecosystem process. Using century-long observations on masting (the MASTREE database) and data on the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), we show that in the last 60 years both high-frequency summer and spring NAO, and low-frequency winter NAO components are highly correlated to continent-wide masting in European beech and Norway spruce. Relationships are weaker (non-stationary) in the early twentieth century. This finding improves our understanding on how climate variation affects large-scale synchronization of tree masting. Moreover, it supports the connection between proximate and ultimate causes of masting: indeed, large-scale features of atmospheric circulation coherently drive cues and resources for masting, as well as its evolutionary drivers, such as pollination efficiency, abundance of seed dispersers, and natural disturbance regimes.

Interannual variability of March snow mass over Northern Eurasia and its relation to the concurrent and preceding surface air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Kunhui

2018-06-01

The interannual variability of March snow water equivalent (SWE) in Northern Eurasia and its influencing factors are studied. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation are the dominant factors for the snow accumulation in northern Europe and the remaining region, respectively. The strongest contribution of SAT to snow accumulation is mainly found in those months with moderate mean SAT. The strongest contribution of precipitation is not collocated with the climatological maxima in precipitation. The leading mode of March SWE variability is obtained and characterized by a spatial dipole. Anomalies in atmospheric water vapor divergence, storm activity and the associated atmospheric circulation can explain many of the associated precipitation and SAT features. Anomalies in autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea and Kara Sea (B/K Sea) and a dipole pattern of November snow cover (SC) in Eurasia are also observed. The atmospheric circulation anomalies that resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) are strongly projected onto the wintertime atmospheric circulation. Both observations and model experiment support that the autumn B/K Sea SIC has some impacts on the autumn and AO/NAO-like wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns. The dipole pattern of November Eurasian SC seems to be strongly forced by the autumn B/K Sea SIC and its feedback to the atmospheric circulation is important. Therefore, the impacts of autumn B/K Sea SIC on the autumn/wintertime atmospheric circulation and thus the March SWE variability may be modulated by both constructive and destructive interference of autumn Eurasian SC.

The spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Canada and their connections to large-scale climate patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Gan, T. Y.; Tan, X.

2017-12-01

In the past few decades, there have been more extreme climate events around the world, and Canada has also suffered from numerous extreme precipitation events. In this paper, trend analysis, change point analysis, probability distribution function, principal component analysis and wavelet analysis were used to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme precipitation in Canada. Ten extreme precipitation indices were calculated using long-term daily precipitation data from 164 gauging stations. Several large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific-North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were selected to analyze the relationships between extreme precipitation and climate indices. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), specific humidity, and surface temperature were employed to investigate the potential causes of the trends.The results show statistically significant positive trends for most indices, which indicate increasing extreme precipitation. The majority of indices display more increasing trends along the southern border of Canada while decreasing trends dominate in the central Canadian Prairies (CP). In addition, strong connections are found between the extreme precipitation and climate indices and the effects of climate pattern differ for each region. The seasonal CAPE, specific humidity, and temperature are found to be closely related to Canadian extreme precipitation.

Evidence of long-term NAO influence on East-Central Europe winter precipitation from a guano-derived δ15N record.

PubMed

Cleary, Daniel M; Wynn, Jonathan G; Ionita, Monica; Forray, Ferenc L; Onac, Bogdan P

2017-10-26

Currently there is a scarcity of paleo-records related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly in East-Central Europe (ECE). Here we report δ 15 N analysis of guano from a cave in NW Romania with the intent of reconstructing past variation in ECE hydroclimate and examine NAO impacts on winter precipitation. We argue that the δ 15 N values of guano indicate that the nitrogen cycle is hydrologically controlled and the δ 15 N values likely reflect winter precipitation related to nitrogen mineralization prior to the growing season. Drier conditions indicated by δ 15 N values at AD 1848-1852 and AD 1880-1930 correspond to the positive phase of the NAO. The increased frequency of negative phases of the NAO between AD 1940-1975 is contemporaneous with higher δ 15 N values (wetter conditions). A 4‰ decrease in δ 15 N values at the end of the 1970's corresponds to a strong reduction in precipitation associated with a shift from negative to positive phase of the NAO. Using the relationship between NAO index and δ 15 N values in guano for the instrumental period, we reconstructed NAO-like phases back to AD 1650. Our results advocate that δ 15 N values of guano offer a proxy of the NAO conditions in the more distant past, helping assess its predictability.

A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate.

PubMed

Wang, L; Ting, M; Kushner, P J

2017-03-21

A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America.

Challenging a 15-year-old claim: The North Atlantic Oscillation index as a predictor of spring migration phenology of birds.

PubMed

Haest, Birgen; Hüppop, Ommo; Bairlein, Franz

2018-04-01

Many migrant bird species that breed in the Northern Hemisphere show advancement in spring arrival dates. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is one of the climatic variables that have been most often investigated and shown to be correlated with these changes in spring arrival. Although the NAO is often claimed to be a good predictor or even to have a marked effect on interannual changes in spring migration phenology of Northern Hemisphere breeding birds, the results on relations between spring migration phenology and NAO show a large variety, ranging from no, over weak, to a strong association. Several factors, such as geographic location, migration phase, and the NAO index time window, have been suggested to partly explain these observed differences in association. A combination of a literature meta-analysis, and a meta-analysis and sliding time window analysis of a dataset of 23 short- and long-distance migrants from the constant-effort trapping garden at Helgoland, Germany, however, paints a completely different picture. We found a statistically significant overall effect size of the NAO on spring migration phenology (coefficient = -0.14, SE = 0.054), but this on average only explains 0%-6% of the variance in spring migration phenology across all species. As such, the value and biological meaning of the NAO as a general predictor or explanatory variable for climate change effects on migration phenology of birds, seems highly questionable. We found little to no definite support for previously suggested factors, such as geographic location, migration phenology phase, or the NAO time window, to explain the heterogeneity in correlation differences. We, however, did find compelling evidence that the lack of accounting for trends in both time series has led to strongly inflated (spurious) correlations in many studies (coefficient = -0.13, SE = 0.019). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

North Atlantic Oscillation influence and weather types associated with winter total and extreme precipitation events in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queralt, S.; Hernández, E.; Barriopedro, D.; Gallego, D.; Ribera, P.; Casanova, C.

2009-12-01

An analysis of winter intensity and frequency of precipitation is presented, based on 102 daily precipitation stations over Spain and the Balearic Islands for the 1997-2006 decade. Precipitation stations have been merged in the eight different regions which compose the analyzed area by the use of an EOF analysis. NAO influence on the intensity and frequency of precipitation of each region is described in terms of mean precipitation, mean rain frequency, the number of extreme events, changes in the precipitation distribution and the prevalent synoptic configuration. Results indicate a non-stationary response; NAO signal being more evident in mid-late winter. Strong regional differences in the response to NAO are also found, which vary according to the specific character of the precipitation under analysis. Thus, NAO exerts a clear effect on the intensity of total and extreme precipitation rates in northern and westernmost Spanish regions, whereas the frequency of precipitation is clearly affected by NAO in central and southwestern areas. While the correlation between NAO and precipitation is negative for most of the analyzed area, two regions reveal positive responses to NAO in total precipitation occurrence and intensity for specific months. Further analyses reveal asymmetric responses to opposite phases of NAO in the precipitation distributions of some regions. The complex regional relationship between NAO and precipitation is also revealed through the modulation of the former in the preferred Circulation Weather Types associated to precipitation in each region. This spatially non-homogeneous NAO signal stresses the need of caution when employing Iberian precipitation as a proxy for NAO.

Sensitivity of marine protected area network connectivity to atmospheric variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Alan D.; Henry, Lea-Anne; Corne, David W.; Roberts, J. Murray

2016-11-01

International efforts are underway to establish well-connected systems of marine protected areas (MPAs) covering at least 10% of the ocean by 2020. But the nature and dynamics of ocean ecosystem connectivity are poorly understood, with unresolved effects of climate variability. We used 40-year runs of a particle tracking model to examine the sensitivity of an MPA network for habitat-forming cold-water corals in the northeast Atlantic to changes in larval dispersal driven by atmospheric cycles and larval behaviour. Trajectories of Lophelia pertusa larvae were strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant pattern of interannual atmospheric circulation variability over the northeast Atlantic. Variability in trajectories significantly altered network connectivity and source-sink dynamics, with positive phase NAO conditions producing a well-connected but asymmetrical network connected from west to east. Negative phase NAO produced reduced connectivity, but notably some larvae tracked westward-flowing currents towards coral populations on the mid-Atlantic ridge. Graph theoretical metrics demonstrate critical roles played by seamounts and offshore banks in larval supply and maintaining connectivity across the network. Larval longevity and behaviour mediated dispersal and connectivity, with shorter lived and passive larvae associated with reduced connectivity. We conclude that the existing MPA network is vulnerable to atmospheric-driven changes in ocean circulation.

Changes in aridity in response to the global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia

2017-02-01

The global warming slowdown or warming hiatus, began around the year 2000 and has persisted for nearly 15 years. Most studies have focused on the interpretation of the hiatus in temperature. In this study, changes in a global aridity index (AI) were analyzed by using a newly developed dynamical adjustment method that can successfully identify and separate dynamically induced and radiatively forced aridity changes in the raw data. The AI and Palmer Drought Severity Index produced a wetting zone over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades. The dynamical adjustment analysis suggested that this wetting zone occurred in response to the global warming hiatus. The dynamically induced AI (DAI) played a major role in the AI changes during the hiatus period, and its relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) also indicated that different phases of the NAO, PDO, and AMO contributed to different performances of the DAI over the Northern Hemisphere. Although the aridity wetting over the mid-to-high latitudes may relieve long-term drying in certain regions, the hiatus is temporary, and so is the relief. Accelerated global warming will return when the NAO, PDO, and AMO revert to their opposite phases in the future, and the wetting zone is likely to disappear.

THE RESPONSE OF MARINE ECOSYSTEMS TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

EPA Science Inventory

A strong association is documented between variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and changes in various trophic levels of the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic. Examples are presented for phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, fish, marine diseases, whales and s...

Statistical Relationships between the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Winter Tornado Outbreaks in the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson Cook, A. D.; Schaefer, J. T.

2009-12-01

Winter tornado activity (January-March) between 1950 and 2003 was analyzed to determine the possible effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the frequency, location, and strength of tornado outbreaks in the United States. Outbreaks were gauged through analyses of tornadoes occurring on tornado days (a calendar day featuring six or more tornadoes within the contiguous United States) and then stratified according to warm (37 tornado days), cold (51 tornado days), and neutral (74 tornado days) winter ENSO phase. Tornado days were also stratified according to NAO phase (positive, negative, and neutral) as well. Although significant changes in the frequency of tornado outbreaks were not observed, spatial shifts in tornado activity are observed, primarily as a function of ENSO phase. Historically, the neutral ENSO phase features tornado outbreaks from central Oklahoma and Kansas eastward through the Carolinas. During cold ENSO phases (La Niña), tornado outbreaks typically occur in a zone stretching from southeastern Texas northeastward into Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Winter tornado activity was mainly limited to areas near the Gulf Coast, including central Florida, during anomalously warm phases (El Niño). Shifts in the intensity of tornado activity were also found as a function of ENSO and particularly NAO phase. Stronger tornadoes with longer path lengths were observed during La Niña and Neutral ENSO events, as well as Positive and Neutral NAO events.

Variability of Fram Strait Ice Flux and North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kwok, Ron

1999-01-01

An important term in the mass balance of the Arctic Ocean sea ice is the ice export. We estimated the winter sea ice export through the Fram Strait using ice motion from satellite passive microwave data and ice thickness data from moored upward looking sonars. The average winter area flux over the 18-year record (1978-1996) is 670,000 square km, approximately 7% of the area of the Arctic Ocean. The winter area flux ranges from a minimum of 450,000 sq. km in 1984 to a maximum of 906,000 sq km in 1995. The daily, monthly and interannual variabilities of the ice area flux are high. There is an upward trend in the ice area flux over the 18-year record. The average winter volume flux over the winters of October 1990 through May 1995 is 1745 cubic km ranging from a low of 1375 cubic km in 1990 to a high of 2791 cubic km in 1994. The sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait explains more than 80% of the variance in the ice flux over the 18-year record. We use the coefficients from the regression of the time-series of area flux versus pressure gradient across the Fram Strait and ice thickness data to estimate the summer area and volume flux. The average 12-month area flux and volume flux are 919,000 sq km and 2366 cubic km. We find a significant correlation (R =0.86) between the area flux and positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index over the months of December through March. Correlation between our six years of volume flux estimates and the NAO index gives R =0.56. During the high NAO years, a more intense Icelandic low increases the gradient in the sea-level pressure by almost 1 mbar across the Fram Strait thus increasing the atmospheric forcing on ice transport. Correlation is reduced during the negative NAO years because of decreased dominance of this large-scale atmospheric pattern on the sea-level pressure gradient across the Fram Strait. Additional information is contained in the original.

Modeling the water isotopes in Greenland precipitation 1959-2001 with the meso-scale model REMO-iso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sjolte, J.; Hoffmann, G.; Johnsen, S. J.; Vinther, B. M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Sturm, C.

2011-09-01

Ice core studies have proved the δ18O in Greenland precipitation to be correlated to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This subject has also been investigated in modeling studies. However, these studies have either had severe biases in the δ18O levels, or have not been designed to be compared directly with observations. In this study we nudge a meso-scale climate model fitted with stable water isotope diagnostics (REMO-iso) to follow the actual weather patterns for the period 1959-2001. We evaluate this simulation using meteorological observations from stations along the Greenland coast, and δ18O from several Greenland ice core stacks and Global Network In Precipitation (GNIP) data from Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. The REMO-iso output explains up to 40% of the interannual δ18O variability observed in ice cores, which is comparable to the model performance for precipitation. In terms of reproducing the observed variability the global model, ECHAM4-iso performs on the same level as REMO-iso. However, REMO-iso has smaller biases in δ18O and improved representation of the observed spatial δ18O-temperature slope compared to ECHAM4-iso. Analysis of the main modes of winter variability of δ18O shows a coherent signal in Central and Western Greenland similar to results from ice cores. The NAO explains 20% of the leading δ18O pattern. Based on the model output we suggest that methods to reconstruct the NAO from Greenland ice cores employ both δ18O and accumulation records.

The North Atlantic Oscillation and the ITCZ in a climate simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavalcanti, I. F. A.; Souza, P.

2009-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) features are analyzed in a climate simulation with the CPTEC/COLA AGCM. The CPTEC/COLA AGCM reproduces the ITCZ seasonal north-south displacement as well as the seasonal east-west intensity, but the model overestimates the convection. The two phases of NAO are well simulated in the four seasons and also the largest intensity in DJF. The main mode of atmospheric variability considering the North and South Atlantic region, which displays a shifting of the NAO centers and a center of action over South Atlantic to the south of Africa is also reproduced. This mode, in DJF, is associated with the north-south ITCZ displacement in April, in the observed data. The displacement of the NAO centers southwestward allows the increase of pressure over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the increase of trade winds and displacement of the confluence and convergence zone southwards. The opposite occurs when the centers are displaced northeastward. The model Atlantic ITCZ position in April is associated with the anomalous (observed) Atlantic SST and the southward displacement of the confluence zone, but the simulated atmospheric features in DJF does not display the main mode of variability, as in the observations. This occurs due to the lack of interaction between the atmosphere and ocean in the atmospheric model. While in the observations the physical mechanism that links the NAO centers of action to the ITCZ position is the ocean-atmosphere interaction, from DJF to April, the atmospheric model responds to the prescribed SST at the same month, in April.

Extracting climate signals from large hydrological data cubes using multivariate statistics - an example for the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauer, Agnes; Dorigo, Wouter; Bauer-Marschallinger, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Global warming is expected to change ocean-atmosphere oscillation patterns, e.g. the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and may thus have a substantial impact on water resources over land. Yet, the link between climate oscillations and terrestrial hydrology has large uncertainties. In particular, the climate in the Mediterranean basin is expected to be sensitive to global warming as it may increase insufficient and irregular water supply and lead to more frequent and intense droughts and heavy precipitation events. The ever increasing need for water in tourism and agriculture reinforce the problem. Therefore, the monitoring and better understanding of the hydrological cycle are crucial for this area. This study seeks to quantify the effect of regional climate modes, e.g. the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean. We apply Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to a wide range of hydrological datasets to extract the major modes of variation over the study period. We use more than ten datasets describing precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and changes in water mass with study periods ranging from one to three decades depending on the dataset. The resulting EOFs are then examined for correlations with regional climate modes using Spearman rank correlation analysis. This is done for the entire time span of the EOFs and for monthly and seasonally sampled data. We find relationships between the hydrological datasets and the climate modes NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Atlantic (EA), and Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA). Analyses of monthly and seasonally sampled data reveal high correlations especially in the winter months. However, the spatial extent of the data cube considered for the analyses have a large impact on the results. Our statistical analyses suggest an impact of regional climate modes on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean area and may provide valuable input for evaluating process-oriented climate models. The study is supported by WACMOS-MED project of the European Space Agency.

Decadal changes in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation patterns recorded by sand spits since 1800 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poirier, Clément; Tessier, Bernadette; Chaumillon, Éric; Bertin, Xavier; Fruergaard, Mikkel; Mouazé, Dominique; Noël, Suzanne; Weill, Pierre; Wöppelmann, Guy

2017-03-01

Present-day coastal barriers represent around 15% of the world's oceanic shorelines, and play an important role as early warning indicators of environmental change. Among them, wave-dominated barriers are dynamic landforms that tend to migrate landward in response to storms and sea-level change. High rates of sediment supply can locally offset the global retrogradation trend, providing valuable records of past environmental change occurring on transgressive coasts. However, geochronological control limits the temporal resolution of such records to millennial or centennial timescales, and the decadal or even faster response of wave-built barriers to historical climate changes is therefore poorly understood. In this study, we show that shoreline dynamics of sand spits reconstructed from old cartographic documents has been synchronous on both margins of the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1800 CE. Spit growth accelerated drastically during three periods lasting about 15 years, characterised by positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative East Atlantic-West Russia (EA-WR) atmospheric circulation patterns. These changes are in phase with periods of increased volcanic activity. We use a high-resolution wave hindcast (1948-2014 CE) in a reference area to confirm the association between NAO and EA-WR as a proxy for offshore and nearshore wave height and for associated longshore sediment transport (LST) involved in spit growth. A 24-month lagged correlation between sediment transport and volcanic aerosol optical thickness (concentration of ashes in the atmosphere) is observed, suggesting that spit shoreline dynamics at the decadal timescale is partially forced by external climate drivers via cascading effects on atmospheric circulation patterns and wave climate. Our results imply that NAO variability alone is not sufficient to understand the evolution of wave-built coastal environments. The associated sediment record can be used to reconstruct multi-decadal variability of other climate patterns.

The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of multidecadal variability of the AMOC, the AMO, and Northern Hemisphere climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delworth, T. L.; Zeng, F. J.; Yang, X.; Zhang, L.

2017-12-01

We use suites of simulations with coupled ocean-atmosphere models to show that multidecadal changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can drive multidecadal changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), with associated hemispheric climatic impacts. These impacts include rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, hemispheric temperature, and modulation of Atlantic hurricane activity. We use models that incorporate either a fully dynamic ocean or a simple slab ocean to explore the role of ocean dynamics and ocean-atmosphere interactions. A positive phase of the NAO is associated with strengthened westerly winds over the North Atlantic. These winds extract more heat than normal from the subpolar ocean, thereby increasing upper ocean density, deepwater formation, and the strength of the AMOC and associated poleward ocean heat transport. This warming leads to a positive phase of the AMO. The enhanced oceanic heat transport extends to the Arctic where it causes a reduction of Arctic sea ice. Large-scale atmospheric warming reduces vertical wind shear in the tropical North Atlantic, creating an environment more favorable for tropical storms. We use models to further show that observed multidecadal variations of the NAO over the 20th and early 21st centuries may have led to multidecadal variations of simulated AMOC and the AMO. Specifically, negative NAO values from the late 1960s through the early 1980s led to a weakened AMOC/cold North Atlantic, whereas increasing NAO values from the late 1980s through the late 1990s increased the model AMOC and led to a positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The warm phase contributed to increases in tropical storm activity and decreases in Arctic sea ice after the mid 1990s. Ocean dynamics are essential for translating the observed NAO variations into ocean heat content variations for the extratropical North Atlantic, but appear less important in the tropical North Atlantic. The observed AMO has substantial SST amplitude in both the tropical and extratropical North Atlantic. These results suggest that additional factors, such as cloud feedback, dust feedback, and anthropogenic radiative forcing, may play a crucial role for the tropical expression of the AMO.

Wavelet analysis of some rivers in SE Europe and selected climate indices.

PubMed

Briciu, Andrei-Emil; Mihăilă, Dumitru

2014-10-01

The influence of some climatic oscillations and sunspot number on river flows in Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova is verified by using standard wavelet analyses. The selected climate oscillations are Arctic Oscillation (AO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO), East Atlantic/West Russia Oscillation (EAWRO), NINO3.4, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North America Oscillation (PNAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Polar/Eurasia Oscillation (PEO), Scandinavian Oscillation (ScandO), Southern Oscillation (SO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Forty-five hydrological stations from an area of 45,000 km(2) were used in order to discover the spatial evolution of the periodicities found in rivers. The wavelet analysis is novel for the rivers in the study area. There is an important difference between the periodicities found in mountain and plateau areas and those found in the plain area. There is a general downstream increase in the confidence level of the identified periods, even if the atmospheric precipitation has more relevant periodicities in the mountain area. The periodicities can be grouped into two compact groups: 1-16.5 and 27.8-55.6 years. The correlation matrix of the global wavelet spectrum (GWS) values indicates that NAO, EAWRO, PDO, and the sunspot number are the main factors that generate the periodicities in rivers. It is the first time when the influence of PDO on local rivers is proven. All river periodicities smaller than 16 years have a confidence level of 0.95 or above, as proven by the GWS analysis of the daily discharge data, and are caused by multiple external factors.

A daily Azores-Iceland North Atlantic Oscillation index back to 1850.

PubMed

Cropper, Thomas; Hanna, Edward; Valente, Maria Antónia; Jónsson, Trausti

2015-07-01

We present the construction of a continuous, daily (09:00 UTC), station-based (Azores-Iceland) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index back to 1871 which is extended back to 1850 with additional daily mean data. The constructed index more than doubles the length of previously existing, widely available, daily NAO time series. The index is created using entirely observational sea-level pressure (SLP) data from Iceland and 73.5% of observational SLP data from the Azores - the remainder being filled in via reanalysis (Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project and European Mean Sea Level Pressure) SLP data. Icelandic data are taken from the Southwest Iceland pressure series. We construct and document a new Ponta Delgada SLP time series based on recently digitized and newly available data that extend back to 1872. The Ponta Delgada time series is created by splicing together several fractured records (from Ponta Delgada, Lajes, and Santa Maria) and filling in the major gaps (pre-1872, 1888-1905, and 1940-1941) and occasional days (145) with reanalysis data. Further homogeneity corrections are applied to the Azores record, and the daily (09:00 UTC) NAO index is then calculated. The resulting index, with its extended temporal length and daily resolution, is the first reconstruction of daily NAO back into the 19th Century and therefore is useful for researchers across multiple disciplines.

Estimating Inflows to Lake Okeechobee Using Climate Indices: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2008-12-01

The operation of regional water management systems that include lakes and storage reservoirs for flood control and water supply can be significantly improved by using climate indices. This research is focused on forecasting Lag 1 annual inflow to Lake Okeechobee, located in South Florida, using annual oceanic- atmospheric indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), belonging to the class of data driven models, are developed to forecast annual lake inflow using annual oceanic-atmospheric indices data from 1914 to 2003. The models were trained with 80 years of data and tested for 10 years of data. Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error model predictions were in good agreement with measured inflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a strong signal for AMO and ENSO indices compared to PDO and NAO indices for one year lead-time inflow forecast. Inflow predictions from the SVM models were better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.

Trends in ice formation at Lake Neusiedl since 1931 and large-scale oscillation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Anna-Maria; Maracek, Karl; Soja, Gerhard

2013-04-01

Ice formation at Lake Neusiedl (Neusiedler See, Fertitó), a shallow steppe lake (area 320 km2, mean depth 1.2 m) at the border of Austria/Hungary, is of ecological and economic importance. Ice sailing and skating help to keep a touristic off-season alive. Reed harvest to maintain the ecological function of the reed belt (178 km2) is facilitated when lake surface is frozen. Changes in ice formation were analysed in the frame of the EULAKES-project (European Lakes under Environmental Stressors, www.eulakes.eu), financed by the Central Europe Programme of the EU. Data records of ice-on, ice duration and ice-off at Lake Neusiedl starting with the year 1931, and air temperature (nearby monitoring station Eisenstadt - Sopron (HISTALP database and ZAMG)) were used to investigate nearly 80 winters. Additionally, influences of 8 teleconnection patterns, i.e. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the East Atlantic pattern (EAP), the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern (EA/WR), the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) for Algiers and Cairo, and for Israel and Gibraltar, resp., the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavia pattern (SCA) were assessed. Ice cover of Lake Neusiedl showed a high variability between the years (mean duration 71±27 days). Significant trends for later ice-on (p=0.02), shorter ice duration (p=0.07) and earlier ice-off (p=0.02) for the period 1931-2011 were found by regression analysis and trend analysis tests. On an average, freezing of Lake Neusiedl started 2 days later per decade and ice melting began 2 days earlier per decade. Close relationships between mean air temperature and ice formation could be found: ice-on showed a dependency on summer (R=+0.28) and autumn air temperatures (R=+0.51), ice duration and ice off was related to autumn (R=-0.36 and -0.24), winter (R=-0.73 and -0.61) and concurrent spring air temperatures (R=-0.44). Increases of air temperature by 1° C caused an 8.4 days later timing of ice-on, a decrease of ice duration by 11.0 days and a 5.8 days earlier ice-off. The sensitivity of ice duration and ice-off to rising air temperatures was increasing at Lake Neusiedl. This effect of warming could not be verified for the timing of ice-on. Ice-on at Lake Neusiedl showed a significant relation to EAP (yearly index; R=0.33). Ice duration and ice-off were influenced significantly by the winter indices of MO for Algiers and Cairo (R=-0.48 and -0.45), NAO (R=-0.42 and -0.37), and EAP (R=-0.31 and -0.48).

North Atlantic Oscillation and pollutants variability in Europe: model analysis and measurements intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pausata, F.; Pozzoli, L.; Van Dingenen, R.; Vignati, E.; Cavalli, F.; Dentener, F. J.

2013-12-01

Ozone pollution and particulate matter (PM) represent a serious health and environmental problem. While ozone pollution is mostly produced by photochemistry in summer, PM is of main concern during winter. Both pollutants can be influenced nt only by local scale processes but also by long range transport driven by the atmospheric circulation and stratospheric ozone intrusions. We analyze the role of large scale atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic basin in determining surface ozone and PM concentrations over Europe. Here, we show, using ground station measurements and a coupled atmosphere-chemistry model simulation for the period 1980-2005, that with regard to ozone the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does affect surface ozone concentrations - on a monthly timescale, over 10 ppbv in southwestern, central and northern Europe - during all seasons except fall. We find that the first Principal Component, computed from the time variation of the sea level pressure (SLP) field, detects the atmosphere circulation/ozone relationship not only in winter and spring but also during summer, when the atmospheric circulation weakens and regional photochemical processes peak. Given the NAO forecasting skill at intraseasonal time scale, the first Principal Component of the SLP field could be used as an indicator to identify areas more exposed to forthcoming ozone pollution events. Finally, our results suggest that the increasing baseline ozone in western and northern Europe during the 1990s could be related to the prevailing positive phase of the NAO in that period. With regard to PM, our study shows that in winter the NAO modulates surface PM concentrations accounting in average up to 30% of the total PM variability. During positive NAO phases, positive PM anomalies occur over southern Europe, and negative anomalies in central-northern Europe. A positve shift of the NAO mean states, hence, leads to an increase in cardiac and resipratory morbidity related to PM exposure in the Mediterranean countries with up to over 5000 more deaths per 20 million people for a 2000 emission inventory.

North Atlantic Oscillation and moisture transport towards the Iberian Peninsula during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordóñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of interannual variability in winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). Recent works have identified the most important sources of moisture that supply the IP during different seasons of the year, including the nearby western Mediterranean and the tropical-subtropical North Atlantic corridor that extends from the Gulf of Mexico to the IP, and the IP itself (Gimeno et al., 2010). However, although rainfall is directly related to the moisture supply, the relationship between the water vapor transported towards IP and the NAO phase remains unclear. In this work the moisture transport towards IP was analyzed using a Lagrangian diagnosis method, which relies on the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) by evaluating changes in the specific humidity along back-trajectories. Here we have computed (for each day) the evolution of moisture of the particles bound for Iberia up to 10 days prior to their arrival. The analysis was constrained to the winter (DJF) season, responsible for the largest fraction of precipitation, for the 20 years of ECMWF Reanalyses ERA40 dataset from 1980 to 2000. The contribution of the NAO phase on the water budgets is examined using composites of the obtained (E - P) fields for the 5 most extreme positive and negative NAO years of the study period. Results confirm that the IP is dominated by positive (negative) E-P anomalies during positive (negative) NAO phase. Additionally an anomalous water vapor sink (source) region located approximately over the Gulf Stream is found during positive (negative) NAO phase. Gimeno L., Nieto R., Trigo R.M. , Vicente-Serrano S.M, Lopes-Moreno J.I., (2010) "Where does the Iberian Peninsula moisture come from? An answer based on a Lagrangian approach". J. Hydrometeorology, 11, 421-436 DOI: 10.1175/2009JHM1182.1.

The influence of the North Atlantic Ocean variability on the atmosphere in the cold season at seasonal to multidecadal time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frankignoul, C.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence of an atmospheric response to the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomalies has been accumulating since the late 90's, suggesting that it drives a negative NAO response during late fall/early winter. The North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly is in part stochastically driven by the atmosphere, but at low frequency it is correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Correspondingly, an atmospheric response to the AMO has been detected at low frequency in winter, with a positive AMO phase leading a negative NAO-like pattern, consistent with sensitivity studies with atmospheric general circulation models. Both the subpolar and tropical components of the AMO seem to contribute to its influence on the atmosphere. As North Atlantic SST changes reflects internally-generated SST fluctuations as well the response to anthropogenic and other external forcing, the AMO is sensitive to the way the forced SST signal is removed; estimates of the natural variability of the AMO vary by as much as a factor of two between estimation methods, leading to possible biases in its alleged impacts. Since an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) leads the AMO and drives a negative NAO in many climate models, albeit with different lead times, the relation between AMO and AMOC will be discussed, as well as possible links with the North Pacific and sea ice variability.

Sea Surface Temperature Records Using Sr/Ca Ratios in a Siderastrea siderea Coral from SE Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fargher, H. A.; Hughen, K. A.; Ossolinski, J. E.; Bretos, F.; Siciliano, D.; Gonzalez, P.

2015-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability from Cuba remains relatively unknown compared to the rest of the Caribbean. Cuba sits near an inflection point in the spatial pattern of SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and long SST records from the region could reveal changes in the influence of this climate system through time. A Siderastrea siderea coral from the Jardínes de la Reina in southern Cuba was drilled to obtain a 220 year long archive of environmental change. The genus Siderastrea has not been extensively studied as an SST archive, yet Sr/Ca ratios in the Cuban core show a clear seasonal signal and strong correlation to instrumental SST data (r2 = 0.86 and 0.36 for monthly and interannual (winter season) timescales, respectively). Annual growth rates (linear extension) of the coral are observed to have a minor influence on Sr/Ca variability, but do not show a direct correlation to SST on timescales from annual to multidecadal. Sr/Ca measurements from the Cuban coral are used to reconstruct monthly and seasonal (winter, summer) SST extending back more than two centuries. Wintertime SST in southern Cuba is compared to other coral Sr/Ca records of winter-season SST from locations sensitive to the NAO in order to investigate the stationarity of the NAO SST 'fingerprint' through time.

AO/NAO Response to Climate Change. 2; Relative Importance of Low- and High-Latitude Temperature Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.; Perlwitz, J.; Lonergan, P.; Lerner, J.

2005-01-01

Using a variety of GCM experiments with various versions of the GISS model, we investigate how different aspects of tropospheric climate changes affect the extratropical Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) circulation indices. The results show that low altitude changes in the extratropical latitudinal temperature gradient can have a strong impact on eddy forcing of the extratropical zonal wind, in the sense that when this latitudinal temperature gradient increases, it helps force a more negative AO/NAO phase. In addition, local conditions at high latitudes can stabilize/destabilize the atmosphere, inducing negative/positive phase changes. To the extent that there is not a large temperature change in the tropical upper troposphere (either through reduced tropical sensitivity at the surface, or limited transport of this change to high levels), the changes in the low level temperature gradient can provide the dominate influence on the extratropical circulation, so that planetary wave meridional refraction and eddy angular momentum transport changes become uncorrelated with potential vorticity transports. In particular, the climate change that produces the most positive NAO phase change would have substantial warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the Pacific Ocean, with high latitude warming in the North Atlantic. An increase in positive phase of these circulation indices is still more likely than not, but it will depend on the degree of tropical and high latitude temperature response and the transport of low level warming into the upper troposphere. These are aspects that currently differ among the models used for predicting the effects of global warning, contributing to the lack of consensus of future changes in the AO/NAO.

The Impact of Trends in the Large Scale Atmospheric Circulation on Mediterranean Surface Turbulent Heat Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Hameed, Sultan

2015-01-01

Interannual variations of latent heat fluxes (LHF) and sensible heat fluxes (SHF) over the Mediterranean for the boreal winter season (DJF) show positive trends during 1958-2011. Using reanalysis and satellite-based products, the variability and trends in the heat fluxes are compared with variations in three atmospheric teleconnection patterns: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the pressure and position of the Azores High (AH), and the East Atlantic-West Russia teleconnection pattern (EAWR). Comparison of correlations between the heat fluxes and teleconnections, along with analysis of composites of surface temperature, humidity, and wind fields for different teleconnection states, demonstrates that the AH explains the heat flux changes more successfully than NAO and EAWR. Trends in pressure and longitude of the Azores High show a strengthening and an eastward shift. Variations of the Azores High occur along an axis defined by lower pressure and westward location at one extreme and higher pressure and eastward location at the other extreme. The shift of the AH from predominance of the low/west state to the high/east state induces trends in Mediterranean Sea surface winds, temperature, and moisture. These, combined with sea surface warming trends, produce trends in wintertime sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Exploiting teleconnection indices for probabilistic forecasting of drought class transitions in Sicily region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaccorso, Brunella; Cancelliere, Antonino

2015-04-01

In the present study two probabilistic models for short-medium term drought forecasting able to include information provided by teleconnection indices are proposed and applied to Sicily region (Italy). Drought conditions are expressed in terms of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different aggregation time scales. More specifically, a multivariate approach based on normal distribution is developed in order to estimate: 1) on the one hand transition probabilities to future SPEI drought classes and 2) on the other hand, SPEI forecasts at a generic time horizon M, as functions of past values of SPEI and the selected teleconnection index. To this end, SPEI series at 3, 4 and 6 aggregation time scales for Sicily region are extracted from the Global SPEI database, SPEIbase , available at Web repository of the Spanish National Research Council (http://sac.csic.es/spei/database.html), and averaged over the study area. In particular, SPEIbase v2.3 with spatial resolution of 0.5° lat/lon and temporal coverage between January 1901 and December 2013 is used. A preliminary correlation analysis is carried out to investigate the link between the drought index and different teleconnection patterns, namely: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian (SCA) and the East Atlantic-West Russia (EA-WR) patterns. Results of such analysis indicate a strongest influence of NAO on drought conditions in Sicily with respect to other teleconnection indices. Then, the proposed forecasting methodology is applied and the skill in forecasting of the proposed models is quantitatively assessed through the application of a simple score approach and of performance indices. Results indicate that inclusion of NAO index generally enhance model performance thus confirming the suitability of the models for short- medium term forecast of drought conditions.

Disentangling the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Madrigal-González, Jaime; Andivia, Enrique; Zavala, Miguel A; Stoffel, Markus; Calatayud, Joaquín; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan

2018-06-14

Climate change can impair ecosystem functions and services in extensive dry forests worldwide. However, attribution of climate change impacts on tree growth and forest productivity is challenging due to multiple inter-annual patterns of climatic variability associated with atmospheric and oceanic circulations. Moreover, growth responses to rising atmospheric CO 2 , namely carbon fertilization, as well as size ontogenetic changes can obscure the climate change signature as well. Here we apply Structural Equation Models (SEM) to investigate the relative role of climate change on tree growth in an extreme Mediterranean environment (i.e., extreme in terms of the combination of sandy-unconsolidated soils and climatic aridity). Specifically, we analyzed potential direct and indirect pathways by which different sources of climatic variability (i.e. warming and precipitation trends, the North Atlantic Oscillation, [NAO]; the Mediterranean Oscillation, [MOI]; the Atlantic Mediterranean Oscillation, [AMO]) affect aridity through their control on local climate (in terms of mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation), and subsequently tree productivity, in terms of basal area increments (BAI). Our results support the predominant role of Diameter at Breast Height (DHB) as the main growth driver. In terms of climate, NAO and AMO are the most important drivers of tree growth through their control of aridity (via effects of precipitation and temperature, respectively). Furthermore and contrary to current expectations, our findings also support a net positive role of climate warming on growth over the last 50 years and suggest that impacts of climate warming should be evaluated considering multi-annual and multi-decadal periods of local climate defined by atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Baseflow response to climate variability induced droughts in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarmistha; Srivastava, Puneet; Abebe, Ash; Mitra, Subhasis

2015-09-01

Droughts have been a major factor leading to the Tri-State Water Wars in the southeastern United States. One of the primary issues related to the conflict is the reduction in baseflow levels in the Flint River during droughts. This affects the availability of freshwater resources to support the endangered mussel species in the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers and threatens the shellfish industry in the Apalachicola Bay. Study of large-scale climate phenomena as well as the interactions of interannual with decadal and multidecadal oceanic-atmospheric phenomena can provide valuable information regarding regional climatic conditions such as droughts and their impact on water resources. This study was conducted to quantify the impacts of climate variability cycles on baseflow levels in the Flint River. The individual and coupled impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on baseflow were quantified. The non-parametric Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedure was used to provide a robust test of the significance of interactions between the phases of ENSO-PDO, ENSO-AMO and ENSO-NAO baseflows. Simple-main effect comparisons were also performed using the JRFit model to estimate significant difference between the positive and negative phase baseflows of PDO, AMO and NAO associated with El Niño or La Niña phases. The results indicate that the phases of ENSO, AMO and NAO significantly affect baseflows in the Flint River. Interaction tests showed that the PDO and AMO phases modulate ENSO phase baseflows. La Niña associated with positive phases of PDO and AMO resulted in greater decrease in baseflow levels of approximately 28% and 33%, respectively. However, La Niña associated with negative phase of AMO showed above normal baseflows. The results illustrate the importance of coupled analyses of climate variability by providing a better understanding of the severity of droughts and their impact on baseflows. The results obtained from this study can be used by water managers in the region as a guide for the issuance of drought severity-based water restrictions.

Effects of local and large-scale climate patterns on estuarine resident fishes: The example of Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyitrai, Daniel; Martinho, Filipe; Dolbeth, Marina; Rito, João; Pardal, Miguel A.

2013-12-01

Large-scale and local climate patterns are known to influence several aspects of the life cycle of marine fish. In this paper, we used a 9-year database (2003-2011) to analyse the populations of two estuarine resident fishes, Pomatoschistus microps and Pomatoschistus minutus, in order to determine their relationships with varying environmental stressors operating over local and large scales. This study was performed in the Mondego estuary, Portugal. Firstly, the variations in abundance, growth, population structure and secondary production were evaluated. These species appeared in high densities in the beginning of the study period, with subsequent occasional high annual density peaks, while their secondary production was lower in dry years. The relationships between yearly fish abundance and the environmental variables were evaluated separately for both species using Spearman correlation analysis, considering the yearly abundance peaks for the whole population, juveniles and adults. Among the local climate patterns, precipitation, river runoff, salinity and temperature were used in the analyses, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and sea surface temperature (SST) were tested as large-scale factors. For P. microps, precipitation and NAO were the significant factors explaining abundance of the whole population, the adults and the juveniles as well. Regarding P. minutus, for the whole population, juveniles and adults river runoff was the significant predictor. The results for both species suggest a differential influence of climate patterns on the various life cycle stages, confirming also the importance of estuarine resident fishes as indicators of changes in local and large-scale climate patterns, related to global climate change.

Developing a Complex Independent Component Analysis (CICA) Technique to Extract Non-stationary Patterns from Geophysical Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forootan, Ehsan; Kusche, Jürgen; Talpe, Matthieu; Shum, C. K.; Schmidt, Michael

2017-12-01

In recent decades, decomposition techniques have enabled increasingly more applications for dimension reduction, as well as extraction of additional information from geophysical time series. Traditionally, the principal component analysis (PCA)/empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method and more recently the independent component analysis (ICA) have been applied to extract, statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated), and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of time series, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the autocovariance matrix and diagonalizing higher (than two) order statistical tensors from centered time series, respectively. However, the stationarity assumption in these techniques is not justified for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components, e.g., the commonly removed dominant seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a novel decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA), which can be applied to extract non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA, where (a) we first define a new complex dataset that contains the observed time series in its real part, and their Hilbert transformed series as its imaginary part, (b) an ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex dataset in (a), and finally, (c) the dominant independent complex modes are extracted and used to represent the dominant space and time amplitudes and associated phase propagation patterns. The performance of CICA is examined by analyzing synthetic data constructed from multiple physically meaningful modes in a simulation framework, with known truth. Next, global terrestrial water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravimetry mission (2003-2016), and satellite radiometric sea surface temperature (SST) data (1982-2016) over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans are used with the aim of demonstrating signal separations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). CICA results indicate that ENSO-related patterns can be extracted from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACE TWS) with an accuracy of 0.5-1 cm in terms of equivalent water height (EWH). The magnitude of errors in extracting NAO or AMO from SST data using the complex EOF (CEOF) approach reaches up to 50% of the signal itself, while it is reduced to 16% when applying CICA. Larger errors with magnitudes of 100% and 30% of the signal itself are found while separating ENSO from PDO using CEOF and CICA, respectively. We thus conclude that the CICA is more effective than CEOF in separating non-stationary patterns.

Decadal Air-Sea Interaction in the North Atlantic Based on Observations and Modeling Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa

1998-01-01

The decadal, 12-14 year, cycle observed in the North Atlantic SST and tide gauge data was examined using the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, COADS data and an ocean model simulation. Besides this decadal mode, a shorter, subdecadal period of about 8 years exists in tide gauge data north of 40N, in the subpolar SST and in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and in subpolar winter heat flux values. The decadal cycle is a well separated mode in a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for a time series of SST EOF mode 1 with a center over the Gulf Stream extension. Tide gauge and SST data are consistent in that both show a significant subdecadal periodicity exclusively in the subpolar gyre, but in subtropics the 12-14 year period is the prominent, but nonstationary, decadal signal. The main finding of this study is that this 12-14 year cycle can be constructed based on the leading mode of the surface heat flux. This connection to the surface heat flux implicates the participation of the thermohaline circulation in the decadal cycle. During the cycle starting from the positive index phase of NAO, SST and oceanic heat content anomalies are created in subtropics due to local heat flux and intensification of the thermohaline circulation. The anomalies advect to the subpolar gyre where they are amplified by local heat flux and are part of the negative feedback of thermohaline circulation on itself. Consequently the oceanic thermohaline circulation slows down and the opposite cycle starts. The oscillatory nature would not be possible without the active atmospheric participation in the cycle, because it provides the unstable interaction through heat flux, without it, the oceanic mode would be damped. This analysis suggests that the two principal modes of heat flux variability, corresponding to patterns similar to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Atlantic (WA), are part of the same decadal cycle and an indirect measure of the north-south movement of the storm tracks.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the trans-Atlantic migrations of the European eel (Anguilla anguilla)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, A. James; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Haines, Keith

2008-09-01

Glass eel catches and FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) landings of the European freshwater eel (Anguilla anguilla) show a decrease over the past 20 years. The long-term trends in the time series mask an interannual fluctuation, which becomes apparent on the application of a high-pass filter and autocorrelation analysis. Both the FAO landings and the glass eel catches show interannual fluctuations with a repeat period of 6-8 years, similar to the period of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Most glass eel catch monitoring stations are in phase. The glass eel catches show a significant negative correlation with the NAO lagged by 0-2 years, consistent with the hypothesis that the positive NAO phase has an adverse impact on the larval survival in and migration from the Sargasso Sea spawning location, one year prior to the arrival of the glass eels in Europe and North Africa. The FAO landings can be divided into two groups of different phase that have an approximate correspondence to the NAO dipole in winter rainfall in Europe and North Africa. One group (P) comprises Denmark, Ireland, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Tunisia, and the United Kingdom, and the other group (N) comprises France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and Turkey. At least for the interannual fluctuations, the success of the glass eel fishery (and eel recruitment) may be coupled with the number of migrating silver eels from the N group of countries and uncoupled with the P group of countries.

Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, Barbara; Vincze, Enikő; Czúcz, Bálint

2016-09-01

The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species ( Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.

Changes in the relationship NAO-Northern Hemisphere Temperature due to solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Torre, L.; Gimeno, L.; Añel, J. A.; Nieto, R.; Tesouro, M.; Ribera, P.; García, R.; Hernández, E.

2003-04-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on wintertime Northern Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) is investigated. To check the hypothesis that the solar cycle is modulating this relationship, the sample was divided into two groups, one included the years corresponding to the three consecutive lowest values of sunspots number for every 11-years cycle (43 years) and the other the ones corresponding to the three consecutive highest numbers (39 years) for every 11-years cycle. If the data of each year were independent, the correlation coefficients between NAO index and NHT for 43 (39) years would be 0.30 (0.32) at 95% confidence level. Correlation index corresponding to the solar minimum phases was -0.17 and to the solar maximum phases was 0.35. The second result is statistically significant and indicates that there are periods when a positive phase of the NAO is related to positive anomalies of NHT- result that supports our current idea of the influence of the NAO on temperature- but there are other periods when NAO and NHT are not correlated. So, results suggest that this relationship has different sign according to the phase of the solar cycle. For solar maximum phases NAO and NHT are positively correlated -result assumed up to the moment- but for solar minimum phases correlations are not significant or even negative. This result is in agreement with the different extension of the NAO for solar cycle phases [1] - almost hemispheric for maximum phases and confined to the eastern Atlantic for minimum phases-.

Interannual differences for sea turtles bycatch in Spanish longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Báez, José C; Macías, David; García-Barcelona, Salvador; Real, Raimundo

2014-01-01

Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle.

Interannual Differences for Sea Turtles Bycatch in Spanish Longliners from Western Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Báez, José C.; García-Barcelona, Salvador

2014-01-01

Recent studies showed that regional abundance of loggerhead and leatherback turtles could oscillate interannually according to oceanographic and climatic conditions. The Western Mediterranean is an important fishing area for the Spanish drifting longline fleet, which mainly targets swordfish, bluefin tuna, and albacore. Due to the spatial overlapping in fishing activity and turtle distribution, there is an increasing sea turtle conservation concern. The main goal of this study is to analyse the interannual bycatch of loggerhead and leatherback turtles by the Spanish Mediterranean longline fishery and to test the relationship between the total turtle by-catch of this fishery and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the 14 years covered in this study, the number of sea turtle bycatches was 3,940 loggerhead turtles and 8 leatherback turtles, 0.499 loggerhead turtles/1000 hooks and 0.001014 leatherback turtles/1000 hooks. In the case of the loggerhead turtle the positive phase of the NAO favours an increase of loggerhead turtles in the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, in the case of leatherback turtle the negative phase of the NAO favours the presence of leatherback turtle. This contraposition could be related to the different ecophysiological response of both species during their migration cycle. PMID:24764769

Baroclinic wave configurations evolution at European scale in the period 1948-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbunaru, Daniel; Burcea, Sorin; Carbunaru, Felicia

2016-04-01

The main aim of the study was to investigate the dynamic characteristics of synoptic configurations at European scale and especially in south-eastern part of Europe for the period 1948-2013. Using the empirical orthogonal functions analysis, simultaneously applied to daily average geopotential field at different pressure levels (200 hPa, 300 hPa, 500 hPa and 850 hPa) during warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) seasons, on a synoptic spatial domain centered on Europe (-27.5o lon V to 45o lon E and 32.5o lat N to 72.5o lat N), the main mode of oscillation characteristic to vertical shift of mean baroclinic waves was obtained. The analysis independently applied on 66 years showed that the first eigenvectors in warms periods describe about 60% of the data and in cold season 40% of the data for each year. In comparison secondary eigenvectors describe up to 20% and 10% of the data. Thus, the analysis was focused on the complex evolution of the first eigenvector in 66 years, during the summer period. On average, this eigenvector describes a small vertical phase shift in the west part of the domain and a large one in the eastern part. Because the spatial extent of the considered synoptic domain incorporates in the west part AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) oscillations, and in the north part being sensitive to AO (Arctic Oscillation) oscillation, these three oscillations were considered as modulating dynamic factors at hemispherical scale. The preliminary results show that in the summer seasons AMO and NAO oscillations modulated vertical phase shift of baroclinic wave in the west of the area (Northwestern Europe), and the relationship between AO and NAO oscillations modulated vertical phase shift in the southeast area (Southeast Europe). Second, it was shown the way in which this vertical phase shift modulates the overall behavior of cyclonic activity, particularly in Southeastern Europe. This work has been developed within the research project "Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania" (CLIMHYDEX), code PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, financed by the Romanian Executive Agency for Higher Education Research, Development and Innovation Funding (UEFISCDI).

Intraseasonal Characteristics Of North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojariu, R.; Gimeno, L..; de La Torre, L.; Nieto, R.

There is evidence of a temporal structure of regional response to the NAO variability in the cold season (e.g. NAO-related climate fluctuations reveal their strongest signal in January). To document the details of NAO intraseasonal characteristics we anal- ysed surface and upper air variables (air surface temperature, sea-ice concentration, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure and geopotential heights at 700 hPa level) in individual months, from November to April. The data consist of 40 years of monthly reanalyses (1961-2000) extracted from the NCAR-NCEP data set. In ad- dition, snow cover data are used (monthly snow cover frequencies from the Climate Prediction Centre and number of days with snow cover from the Former Soviet Union Hydrological Snow Surveys available at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre). A NAO-related signal with predictive potential has been identified in November air surface temperature over Europe and SLP and geopotential heights over Eurasia. Neg- ative thermal anomalies over the Central Europe and positive geopotential anomalies at 700 hPa over a latitudinal belt from Arabic Peninsula to Pacific Ocean are associated with a high NAO index in the following winter. The November thermal anomalies that seem to be related to the NAO interannual persistence are also linked with the fluctu- ations of snow cover over Europe. Both tropical and high latitude influences may play a role in the onset of the November signal and in further NAO development.

Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

2003-04-01

We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

The seasonal predictability of blocking frequency in two seasonal prediction systems (CMCC, Met-Office) and the associated representation of low-frequency variability.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Scaife, Adam A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Hermanson, Leon; MacLachlan, Craig; Arribas, Alberto; Materia, Stefano; Borelli, Andrea

2014-05-01

Low-frequency variability is a fundamental component of the atmospheric circulation. Extratropical teleconnections, the occurrence of blocking and the slow modulation of the jet streams and storm tracks are all different aspects of low-frequency variability. Part of the latter is attributed to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and is inherently unpredictable. On the other hand, primarily as a response to boundary forcings, tropospheric low-frequency variability includes components that are potentially predictable. Seasonal forecasting faces the difficult task of predicting these components. Particularly referring to the extratropics, the current generation of seasonal forecasting systems seem to be approaching this target by realistically initializing most components of the climate system, using higher resolution and utilizing large ensemble sizes. Two seasonal prediction systems (Met-Office GloSea and CMCC-SPS-v1.5) are analyzed in terms of their representation of different aspects of extratropical low-frequency variability. The current operational Met-Office system achieves unprecedented high scores in predicting the winter-mean phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, corr. 0.74 at 500 hPa) and the Pacific-N. American pattern (PNA, corr. 0.82). The CMCC system, considering its small ensemble size and course resolution, also achieves good scores (0.42 for NAO, 0.51 for PNA). Despite these positive features, both models suffer from biases in low-frequency variance, particularly in the N. Atlantic. Consequently, it is found that their intrinsic variability patterns (sectoral EOFs) differ significantly from the observed, and the known teleconnections are underrepresented. Regarding the representation of N. hemisphere blocking, after bias correction both systems exhibit a realistic climatology of blocking frequency. In this assessment, instantaneous blocking and large-scale persistent blocking events are identified using daily geopotential height fields at 500 hPa. Given a documented strong relationship between high-latitude N. Atlantic blocking and the NAO, one would expect a predictive skill for the seasonal frequency of blocking comparable to that of the NAO. However, this remains elusive. Future efforts should be in the direction of reducing model biases not only in the mean but also in variability (band-passed variances).

Long-term Variations of The Solar Activity -- Lower Atmosphere Relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitseva, S.; Akhremtchik, S.; Pudovkin, M.; Besser, B.; Rijnbeek, R.

Long-term variations of the air temperature in St.Petersburg, Stockholm, Salzburg and English Midlands are considered. There is shown that in the regions under consider- ation the air temperature distinctly depends on the intensity of the lower atmospheric zonal circulation (Blinova index and North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO)). In turn, the NAO-index is shown to depend on the solar activity. However, this dependence is rather complicated and exhibits long-period variations associated with secular varia- tions of the solar activity. A possible mechanism of this phenomena is discussed.

Sensitivity of two Iberian lakes to North Atlantic atmospheric circulation modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Pla-Rabes, Sergi; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Jerez, Sonia; Rico-Herrero, Mayte; Vega, José C.; Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Giralt, Santiago

2015-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts a major influence on the climate of the North Atlantic region. However, other atmospheric circulation modes (ACMs), such as the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavian (SCAND) patterns, also play significant roles. The dynamics of lakes on the Iberian Peninsula are greatly controlled by climatic parameters, but their relationship with these various ACMs has not been investigated in detail. In this paper, we analyze monthly meteorological and limnological long-term datasets (1950-2011 and 1992-2011, respectively) from two lakes on the northern and central Iberian Peninsula (Sanabria and Las Madres) to develop an understanding of the seasonal sensitivity of these freshwater systems to the NAO, EA and SCAND circulation modes. The limnological variability within Lake Sanabria is primarily controlled by fluctuations in the seasonal precipitation and wind, and the primary ACMs associated with the winter limnological processes are the NAO and the SCAND modes, whereas only the EA mode appears to weakly influence processes during the summer. However, Lake Las Madres is affected by precipitation, wind and, to a lesser extent, temperature, whereas the ACMs have less influence. Therefore, we aim to show that the lakes of the Iberian Peninsula are sensitive to these ACMs. The results presented here indicate that the lake dynamics, in some cases, have a higher sensitivity to variations in the ACMs than single local meteorological variables. However, certain local features, such as geography, lake morphology and anthropic influences, are crucial to properly record the signals of these ACMs.

Beyond the NAO: Dynamics and Precipitation Implications of the Azores High Since AD 800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thatcher, D.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Denniston, R. F.; Asmerom, Y.; Ummenhofer, C.; Polyak, V. J.; Haws, J.; Gillikin, D. P.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region during the last millennium, particularly the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a system closely tied to regional precipitation dynamics, remains the subject of considerable debate in both proxy- and model-based studies. It has been suggested that the winter NAO was in a persistently positive state during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; AD 850-1250), resulting in increased precipitation across much of northern Europe and decreased rainfall across Iberia. However, besides changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation dynamics that could be associated with an altered mean state of the NAO, relatively little attention has been given to atmospheric dynamics, namely the intensity and location, of the subtropical high system (Azores High, the southern node of the NAO) in driving hydroclimate in Iberia. Presented here is a continuous, precisely dated, and sub-decadally-resolved stalagmite isotopic and elemental time series from Buraca Gloriosa (BG) cave, western Portugal, situated within the center of the Azores High at the southern node of the NAO, which preserves evidence of regional hydroclimate from approximately AD 800 to the present. Stalagmite oxygen and carbon isotopic values and magnesium/calcium ratios primarily reflect effective moisture and reveal generally dry conditions during the MCA with a rapid shift to wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA; AD 1250-1850) at this location. Our proxy data reveal that substantial short-term hydroclimate variability characterized the last 1200 years. They support the hypothesis that while an intensified, semi-persistent subtropical high (and likely positive NAO state) characterized much of the MCA, the NAO remained variable over this time period. Climate model results also suggest that the Azores High pressure system both migrated southward and weakened from the MCA into the LIA.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Precipitation and Climate Interactions Using a High-Resolution Dataset for the Eastern United States, 1948-2015.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bregy, J. C.; Maxwell, J. T.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are typically concentrated along the coast, yet some TC hazards have wider spatial distributions and affect inland regions. For example, large volumes of TC precipitation (TCP) can cause severe inland flooding, initiate slope failure, and create large sinkholes. Previous studies show that TCP contributes substantially to seasonal precipitation budgets in the eastern United States. However, present knowledge of TCP climatology in the US is limited by the spatial coverage of weather stations. Here we develop a new high resolution (0.25°x0.25°) TCP climatology using HURDAT2 and CPC US Unified Precipitation data (1948-2015). From June to November (JJASON), maximum total TCP for the study period ranges from 2200 to 3800 mm along much of the coast and decreases inland. Likewise, spatial patterns of TCP contribution to total JJASON precipitation largely mirror those of total TCP, with maxima (6-8%) located in coastal Texas and North Carolina. Similar spatial patterns are seen in the mean JJASON TCP and mean TCP contribution over the study period, with maxima extending beyond coastal Texas and North Carolina. JJASON TCP (total, mean, and contribution) was correlated with mean annual JJASON values for the Bermuda High Index (BHI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation combined Niño3.4/Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO-BEST), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Correlations between climate indices and JJASON TCP show the degree to which BHI, ENSO-BEST, and NAO influence spatiotemporal changes in TCP. Of the three indices, the BHI had the strongest and most spatially consistent correlation with TCP, with significant correlations in the interior of the southeast. These results indicate a strong regional relationship between the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH; represented by the BHI) and regional TCP distribution. TCP distribution depends on TC track direction, and is therefore connected to the NASH, which acts as a steering mechanism for TCs. Our derived high resolution TCP climatology further aids our understanding of TC-climate interactions. Moreover, it can be used to understand hazards associated with TCs, serving as an invaluable tool in hazard mitigation efforts.

Winter NH low-frequency variability in a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of earth-atmosphere system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Nan

2018-02-01

The origin of winter Northern Hemispheric low-frequency variability (hereafter, LFV) is regarded to be related to the coupled earth-atmosphere system characterized by the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges. On the other hand, observed LFV usually appears as transitions among multiple planetary-scale flow regimes of Northern Hemisphere like NAO + , AO +, AO - and NAO - . Moreover, the interaction between synoptic-scale eddies and the planetary-scale disturbance is also inevitable in the origin of LFV. These raise a question regarding how to incorporate all these aspects into just one framework to demonstrate (1) a planetary-scale dynamics of interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges can really produce LFV, (2) such a dynamics can be responsible for the existence of above multiple flow regimes, and (3) the role of interaction with eddy is also clarified. For this purpose, a hierarchy of low-order stochastic dynamical models of the coupled earth-atmosphere system derived empirically from different timescale ranges of indices of Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific/North American (PNA), and length of day (LOD) and related probability density function (PDF) analysis are employed in this study. The results seem to suggest that the origin of LFV cannot be understood completely within the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain ranges, because (1) the existence of multiple flow regimes such as NAO+, AO+, AO- and NAO- resulted from processes with timescales much longer than LFV itself, which may have underlying dynamics other than topography-jet stream interaction, and (2) we find LFV seems not necessarily to come directly from the planetary-scale dynamics of the interaction of the jet stream with mid-latitude mountain, although it can produce similar oscillatory behavior. The feedback/forcing of synoptic-scale eddies on the planetary-scale dynamics seems to play a more essential role in its origin.

Changes in Greenland's peripheral glaciers linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørk, A. A.; Aagaard, S.; Lütt, A.; Khan, S. A.; Box, J. E.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Larsen, N. K.; Korsgaard, N. J.; Cappelen, J.; Colgan, W. T.; Machguth, H.; Andresen, C. S.; Peings, Y.; Kjær, K. H.

2018-01-01

Glaciers and ice caps peripheral to the main Greenland Ice Sheet contribute markedly to sea-level rise1-3. Their changes and variability, however, have been difficult to quantify on multi-decadal timescales due to an absence of long-term data4. Here, using historical aerial surveys, expedition photographs, spy satellite imagery and new remote-sensing products, we map glacier length fluctuations of approximately 350 peripheral glaciers and ice caps in East and West Greenland since 1890. Peripheral glaciers are found to have recently undergone a widespread and significant retreat at rates of 12.2 m per year and 16.6 m per year in East and West Greenland, respectively; these changes are exceeded in severity only by the early twentieth century post-Little-Ice-Age retreat. Regional changes in ice volume, as reflected by glacier length, are further shown to be related to changes in precipitation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a distinct east-west asymmetry; positive phases of the NAO increase accumulation, and thereby glacier growth, in the eastern periphery, whereas opposite effects are observed in the western periphery. Thus, with projected trends towards positive NAO in the future5,6, eastern peripheral glaciers may remain relatively stable, while western peripheral glaciers will continue to diminish.

Evaluating the potential of Iberian lakes as sensors of climate circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Jerez, Sonia; Rico-Herrero, Maria T.; Vega, José C.; Jambrina-Enríquez, Margarita; Valero-Garcés, Blas L.; Giralt, Santiago

2013-04-01

Lakes are one of the best continental sensors for reconstructing past environmental and climatic changes. Recent lacustrine systems may be used for reconstructing with high-temporal resolution past climate parameters (e.g. precipitation, temperature, wind), land management changes and limnological conditions such as pH, salinity, or nutrients concentrations using a large set of techniques and proxies. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions can be improved by validating them with instrumental data, and the availability of monitoring data greatly enhances the potential of lakes to evaluate the link between the measured physical-chemical-biological parameters and the indicators from lake sediments. The Iberian Peninsula (IP) is an excellent site to conduct quantitative climate reconstructions owing to its location between the Eurosiberian and Mediterranean regions. Due to its geographic position, a large fraction of the IP climate is dominated by the most important large scale pattern of the Northern Hemisphere, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, a number of recent works has put into evidence that besides the NAO mode there are other relevant atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic and European sector that play an important role in terms of Western Mediterranean climate. Among these we have evaluated particularly the so-called Scandinavian (SCAND) and eastern Atlantic (EA) which have commonly been overlooked. Monthly limnological monitoring in Lake Sanabria (42°07'N, 06°43'W) and Lake Las Madres (40°18'N, 3°31'W) since 1986 and 1991, respectively, provided a unique opportunity to test the spatio-temporal relationships between meteorological data and climate modes, hydrology, lake dynamics and, in the Lake Sanabria case, how the climate signal is transferred to the lake sediments. For this purpose, we have used five complementary datasets: (1) meteorological (air temperature, total precipitation and wind intensity), (2) climate modes index (NAO, EA, SCAND), (3) limnological (Secchi disk, water temperature, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, total phosphorus and chlorophyll) in both lake systems; and in Lake Sanabria (4) hydrological (Tera River water input and output) and (5) XRF core scanner measurements carried out in short cores. The preliminary results based on linear models and Principal Component Analyses between the different dataset variables show how the climate signal is transferred from the atmosphere to the lake, and ultimately to the sediments. Establishment of such links allowed us to infer quantitatively the pattern of precipitation and its temporal and spatial relationship with the main climate over the last decades using the limnological and sediment data in these two IP lakes. These results highlight that besides NAO, the SCAND and EA patterns must be taken into account on any analysis of climate variability in the IP.

Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.

Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead time streamflow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad

2009-03-01

We present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), for long lead time streamflow forecasting using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on statistical learning theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and has been used to predict a quantity forward in time on the basis of training from past data. The strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problem. The SVM model is applied to three gages, i.e., Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906-2001 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes with 3 years lead time. The SVM model is trained with 86 years of data (1906-1991) and tested with 10 years of data (1992-2001). On the basis of correlation coefficient, root means square error, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, reveals a strong signal for ENSO and NAO indices as compared to PDO and AMO indices for the long lead time streamflow forecast. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feedforward back propagation artificial neural network model and linear regression.

Using the Convergent Cross Mapping method to test causality between Arctic Oscillation / North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutowska, Dorota; Piskozub, Jacek

2017-04-01

There is a vast literature body on the climate indices and processes they represent. A large part of it deals with "teleconnections" or causal relations between them. However until recently time lagged correlations was the best tool of studying causation. However no correlation (even lagged) proves causation. We use a recently developed method of studying casual relations between short time series, Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), to search for causation between the atmospheric (AO and NAO) and oceanic (AMO) indices. The version we have chosen (available as an R language package rEDM) allows for comparing time series with time lags. This work builds on previous one, showing with time-lagged correlations that AO/NAO precedes AMO by about 15 years and at the same time is preceded by AMO (but with an inverted sign) also by the same amount of time. This behaviour is identical to the relationship of a sine and cosine with the same period. This may suggest that the multidecadal oscillatory parts of the atmospheric and oceanic indices represent the same global-scale set of processes. In other words they may be symptoms of the same oscillation. The aim of present study is to test this hypothesis with a tool created specially for discovering causal relationships in dynamic systems.

Trends and Variability of the Outdoor Skating Season in Canada during 1951-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damyanov, Nikolay Nikolaev

Climate change affects a range of human activities, including one of Canada's prime sources of entertainment: ice skating. Whether done recreationally or as hockey, its outdoor component is heavily dependent on weather and climate. Based on information obtained from public works officials from various Canadian cities, I have established a meteorological criterion for the initiation of an outdoor skating season (OSS) as the last day in a sequence of the first three consecutive fall/winter days with a maximum temperature below -5 °C. In addition, I derive a proxy of the OSS length, defined as the total number of days with a maximum temperature below -5 °C after the OSS start date and before the start of March. Using these filters, I have extracted the start dates and the lengths of the OSS for each year during the fifty-five year period 1951-2005 from a comprehensive daily temperature dataset (Vincent et al., 2002). For each station, I created time series of both the OSS start dates and OSS lengths, and calculated the magnitude, sign and statistical significance of the slopes of the best-fit lines to each time series. In order to establish a relationship of the OSS with large-scale climate patterns, I grouped stations into six climatic regions. Depending on location, I then tested each region for correlation with the Pacific North-American teleconnection pattern (PNA) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), using a composite analysis method. Lastly, I removed the signal due to these climate fluctuations from the OSS start date and length trends in order to determine how much of the variability was caused by these interannual climate oscillations. The results of the study indicate that most stations in British Columbia and southwest Alberta, as well as these in the southern Ontario/Quebc region have witnessed a progressively later onset of the OSS over time. The Prairies, northwest Canada, and some Maritime locales show the opposite trend, although the magnitudes of the slopes are smaller. Significance tests on the regression lines show that most of these trends are not significant at the 95% level. However, OSS start dates in western Canada are very well correlated with PNA patterns by happening later on the average whenever PNA is positive and more warm air is channeled towards the west coast; the OSS start dates in eastern Canada show a similar connection with the NAO. The OSS lengths exhibit different trends: five of the six regions show a decrease in OSS length with the only region having experienced a lengthening of the OSS being the Maritimes. The statistical significance of the OSS length slopes is much higher than that of OSS start slopes, and the correlation with the PNA or NAO is similar in both cases. After carrying out the last procedure (removal of the PNA and NAO signals from the OSS start date and length series), I found an increase in the new slopes and their significance for more than half of my geographic regions' OSS start date and length trends.

Solar and atmospheric forcing on mountain lakes.

PubMed

Luoto, Tomi P; Nevalainen, Liisa

2016-10-01

We investigated the influence of long-term external forcing on aquatic communities in Alpine lakes. Fossil microcrustacean (Cladocera) and macrobenthos (Chironomidae) community variability in four Austrian high-altitude lakes, determined as ultra-sensitive to climate change, were compared against records of air temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar forcing over the past ~400years. Summer temperature variability affected both aquatic invertebrate groups in all study sites. The influence of NAO and solar forcing on aquatic invertebrates was also significant in the lakes except in the less transparent lake known to have remained uniformly cold during the past centuries due to summertime snowmelt input. The results suggest that external forcing plays an important role in these pristine ecosystems through their impacts on limnology of the lakes. Not only does the air temperature variability influence the communities but also larger-scale external factors related to atmospheric circulation patterns and solar activity cause long-term changes in high-altitude aquatic ecosystems, through their connections to hydroclimatic conditions and light environment. These findings are important in the assessment of climate change impacts on aquatic ecosystems and in greater understanding of the consequences of external forcing on lake ontogeny. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gröger, Joachim; Rumohr, Heye

2006-05-01

Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m - 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.

Variability of sea surface height and circulation in the North Atlantic: Forcing mechanisms and linkages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zeliang; Lu, Youyu; Dupont, Frederic; W. Loder, John; Hannah, Charles; G. Wright, Daniel

2015-03-01

Simulations with a coarse-resolution global ocean model during 1958-2004 are analyzed to understand the inter-annual and decadal variability of the North Atlantic. Analyses of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) suggest relationships among basin-scale variations of sea surface height (SSH) and depth-integrated circulation, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) indices. The linkages between the atmospheric indices and ocean variables are shown to be related to the different roles played by surface momentum and heat fluxes in driving ocean variability. In the subpolar region, variations of the gyre strength, SSH in the central Labrador Sea and the NAO index are highly correlated. Surface heat flux is important in driving variations of SSH and circulation in the upper ocean and decadal variations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Surface momentum flux drives a significant barotropic component of flow and makes a noticeable contribution to the AMOC. In the subtropical region, momentum flux plays a dominant role in driving variations of the gyre circulation and AMOC; there is a strong correlation between gyre strength and SSH at Bermuda.

Flowering phenological changes in relation to climate change in Hungary.

PubMed

Szabó, Barbara; Vincze, Enikő; Czúcz, Bálint

2016-09-01

The importance of long-term plant phenological time series is growing in monitoring of climate change impacts worldwide. To detect trends and assess possible influences of climate in Hungary, we studied flowering phenological records for six species (Convallaria majalis, Taraxacum officinale, Syringa vulgaris, Sambucus nigra, Robinia pseudoacacia, Tilia cordata) based on phenological observations from the Hungarian Meteorological Service recorded between 1952 and 2000. Altogether, four from the six examined plant species showed significant advancement in flowering onset with an average rate of 1.9-4.4 days per decade. We found that it was the mean temperature of the 2-3 months immediately preceding the mean flowering date, which most prominently influenced its timing. In addition, several species were affected by the late winter (January-March) values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. We also detected sporadic long-term effects for all species, where climatic variables from earlier months exerted influence with varying sign and little recognizable pattern: the temperature/NAO of the previous autumn (August-December) seems to influence Convallaria, and the temperature/precipitation of the previous spring (February-April) has some effect on Tilia flowering.

The Relationship Between Extratropical Cyclone Steering and Blocking Along the North American East Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, James F.; Dunn-Sigouin, Etienne; Pfahl, Stephan

2017-12-01

The path and speed of extratropical cyclones along the east coast of North America influence their societal impact. This work characterizes the climatological relationship between cyclone track path and speed, and blocking and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An analysis of Lagrangian cyclone track propagation speed and angle shows that the percentage of cyclones with blocks is larger for cyclones that propagate northward or southeastward, as is the size of the blocked region near the cyclone. Cyclone-centered composites show that propagation of cyclones relative to blocks is consistent with steering by the block: northward tracks more often have a block east/northeast of the cyclone; slow tracks tend to have blocks due north of the cyclone. Comparison with the NAO shows that to first-order blocking and the NAO steer cyclones in a similar manner. However, blocked cyclones are more likely to propagate northward, increasing the likelihood of cyclone related impacts.

Prospects for seasonal forecasting of summer drought and low river flow anomalies in England and Wales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wedgbrow, C. S.; Wilby, R. L.; Fox, H. R.; O'Hare, G.

2002-02-01

Future climate change scenarios suggest enhanced temporal and spatial gradients in water resources across the UK. Provision of seasonal forecast statistics for surface climate variables could alleviate some negative effects of climate change on water resource infrastructure. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of spatial and temporal relationships between large-scale North Atlantic climatic indices, drought severity and river flow anomalies in England and Wales. Potentially useful predictive relationships are explored between winter indices of the Polar-Eurasian (POL) teleconnection pattern, the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), and the summer Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and reconstructed river flows in England and Wales. Correlation analyses, coherence testing and an index of forecast potential, demonstrate that preceding winter values of the POL index, SSTA (and to a lesser extent the NAO), provide indications of summer and early autumn drought severity and river flow anomalies in parts of northwest, southwest and southeast England. Correlation analyses demonstrate that positive winter anomalies of T1, POL index and NAO index are associated with negative PDSI (i.e. drought) across eastern parts of the British Isles in summer (r < 0.51). Coherence tests show that a positive winter SSTA (1871-1995) and POL index (1950-95) have preceded below-average summer river flows in the northwest and southwest of England and Wales in 70 to 100% of summers. The same rivers have also experienced below-average flows during autumn following negative winter phases of the NAO index in 64 to 93% of summers (1865-1995). Possible explanations for the predictor-predictand relationships are considered, including the memory of groundwater, and ocean-atmosphere coupling, and regional manifestations of synoptic rainfall processes. However, further research is necessary to increase the number of years and predictor variables from which it is possible to derive rules that may be useful for forecasting.

Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hedi; Chen, Haishan; Gray, Lesley; Zhou, Liming; Li, Xing; Wang, Ruili; Zhu, Siguang

2018-03-01

Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mean sea level pressure (mslp) response that lags the SC by 2-4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44 years over the period 1751-2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2-4 year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time. Stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December-January-February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which has been associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from late winter (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise.

Decadal Transition of Moisture Sources and Transport in Northwestern China During Summer From 1982 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Lijuan; Zhong, Linhao; Ma, Zhuguo

2017-12-01

The northwestern corner of China (NWCC) experienced a decadal transition in summer precipitation during 1982-2010, with a significant upward trend in 1982-2000 (P1) but a downward one in 2001-2010 (P2). A spatially unbounded dynamic recycling model is developed to estimate the moisture sources and moisture transport variations based on ERA-Interim data. The results suggest that more than 88% of NWCC precipitation has external moisture origins in the southwest and northwest terrestrial areas. The increasing precipitation trend during P1 can be explained by the increasing moisture contribution from the southwest and decreasing contribution from the northwest. However, the opposite trends cause the decreasing precipitation trend during P2. In general, the decadal precipitation transition is mainly determined by the variation of short-distance moisture transport from central Asia, although opposite moisture transport variations exist in the Ural Mountains and Northeast Europe. The variation of the precipitation trend is closely associated with a well-organized wave train propagation from the North Atlantic to central Asia. During P1, the wave train structure consists of a titled positive phase North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), an anticyclonic circulation over Europe, and a cyclonic anomaly over central Asia, which promotes the southwest moisture flux to NWCC. But the opposite circulation pattern dominates P2. The energy dispersion due to the breakdown of the NAO determines the phase and strength of the downstream wave anomalies over Eurasia. This suggests that the summer NAO might influence the decadal variation of NWCC precipitation through the decadal modulation of the Eurasia wave train.

Relation between climatic factors, diet and reproductive parameters of Little Terns over a decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Jaime A.; Pedro, Patrícia; Matos, Antonio; Paiva, Vitor H.

2013-11-01

We used 10 years of data on clutch size, egg size and diet, and 8 years of data on timing of laying on Little Terns (Sternula albifrons) breeding in Ria Formosa lagoon system, Algarve, Portugal to assess whether diet acts as an important intermediary between climatic conditions and breeding parameters. We used Generalized Linear Models to relate (1) the relative occurrence and size of the main prey species, sand smelts (Atherina spp.), with environmental variables, a large-scale climate variable, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and a local scale variable, the sea-surface temperature (SST), and (2) the respective effects of sand smelts relative occurrence, NAO index and SST on Little Tern breeding parameters. The diet of Little Terns was dominated by sand smelts, with a frequency occurrence of over 60% in all years. The winter SST (February) was negatively associated with the relative occurrence of sand smelts in the diet of Little Terns during the breeding season which, in turn, was positively associated with Little Tern clutch size. Our results suggest that negative NAO conditions in the Atlantic Ocean, often associated with rougher sea conditions (greater vertical mixing, stronger winds and lower SST) were related with earlier breeding, and lower SST in the surroundings of the colony during winter-spring favour the abundance of prey fish for Little Terns as well as their reproductive parameters. Climate patterns at both large and local scales are likely to change in the future, which may have important implications for estuarine seabirds in Southern Europe.

Teleconnections, Midlatitude Cyclones and Aegean Sea Turbulent Heat Flux Variability on Daily Through Decadal Time Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romanski, Joy; Romanou, Anastasia; Bauer, Michael; Tselioudis, George

2013-01-01

We analyze daily wintertime cyclone variability in the central and eastern Mediterranean during 1958-2001, and identify four distinct cyclone states, corresponding to the presence or absence of cyclones in each basin. Each cyclone state is associated with wind flows that induce characteristic patterns of cooling via turbulent (sensible and latent) heat fluxes in the eastern Mediterranean basin and Aegean Sea. The relative frequency of occurrence of each state determines the heat loss from the Aegean Sea during that winter, with largest heat losses occurring when there is a storm in the eastern but not central Mediterranean (eNOTc), and the smallest occurring when there is a storm in the central but not eastern Mediterranean (cNOTe). Time series of daily cyclone states for each winter allow us to infer Aegean Sea cooling for winters prior to 1985, the earliest year for which we have daily heat flux observations. We show that cyclone states conducive to Aegean Sea convection occurred in 1991/1992 and 1992/1993, the winters during which deep water formation was observed in the Aegean Sea, and also during the mid-1970s and the winters of 1963/1964 and 1968/1969. We find that the eNOTc cyclone state is anticorrelated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prior to 1977/1978. After 1977/1978, the cNOTe state is anticorrelated with both the NAO and the North Caspian Pattern (NCP), showing that the area of influence of large scale atmospheric teleconnections on regional cyclone activity shifted from the eastern to the central Mediterranean during the late 1970s. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of the positive phase of the NAO produced less frequent cNOTe states since the late 1970s, increasing the number of days with strong cooling of the Aegean Sea surface waters.

Spatial Organization In Europe of Decadal and Interdecadal Fluctuations In Annual Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucero, O. A.; Rodriguez, N. C.

In this research the spatial patterns of decadal and bidecadal fluctuations in annual rainfall in Europe are identified. Filtering of time series of anomaly of annual rainfall is carried out using the Morlet wavelet technique. Reconstruction is achieved by sum- ming the contributions from bands of wavelet timescales; the decadal band and the bidecadal band are composed of contributions from the band of (10- to 17-year] and (17- to 27- year] timescales respectively. Results indicate that 1) the spatial organi- zation of decadal and bidecadal components of annual rainfall are standing wave-like organized patterns. Three standing decadal fluctuations zonally aligned formed the spatial pattern from 1900 until 1931; thereafter the pattern changed into a NW-SE orientation. The decadal band shows an average 12-year period. 2) The spatial orga- nization of bidecadal component was composed of three standing fluctuations since 1903 to 1986. After 1987 two standing bidecadal fluctuations were located on Europe. The orientation of bidecadal fluctuations changed during the period under study. Until 1913 the spatial pattern of the bidecadal component was zonally aligned. Since 1913 until 1986 the three bidecadal fluctuations composing the spatial pattern were aligned SW U NE; starting 1987 the spatial pattern is composed of two standing fluctuations zonally aligned. The bidecadal spatial pattern shows an average period of 20- to 22- year length. 3) At decadal and bidecadal timescales, the first principal component of the spatial field of anomaly of annual rainfall and the NAO index are connected. The upper positive third (lower negative third) of values of first principal component are indicative of extensive area with positive (negative) anomaly of annual rainfall. 4) At decadal timescale the relative phase between the first PC and the NAO index changes through the period under study; these changes define three regimes: 1) Dur- ing the regime covering the period 1900 (start of period under study) to about 1945, at the time of peak values of decadal NAO-index it takes place a transition between extremes (a neutral state) of the decadal rainfall spatial pattern (first PC takes small absolute values). Besides, for positive (negative) peak value of NAO index the spatial pattern of annual rainfall is evolving toward an area of predominantly positive (nega- tive) anomaly. 2) The second regime starts about 1946 and reaches up to early 1980s. At the time of negative (positive) peak of decadal NAO there is a prevailing spatial pattern of positive (negative) anomaly of decadal rainfall. 3) The third regime starts 1 about late 1970s and reaches to the end of the period under study (in 1996). There is a change of relative phase within this period in late 1980s. In this regime a spatial pattern of prevailing positive or negative anomaly of decadal rainfall takes place dur- ing values of decadal NAO close to zero. 5) At bidecadal timescale the relative phase between the first PC and the NAO index remains almost constant through the period under study. The first PC of the transformed bidecadal component of annual rainfall anomaly attains its positive (negative) peak about three years before the bidecadal component of NAO reaches its negative (positive) peak. 2

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on a Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

2017-10-01

In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The generally decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact on the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the precipitation reduction due to the NAO. Such local topographic effects that may attenuate large-scale climate change effects must be considered in water resource planning and management alongside such climate change effects related to large-scale circulations, such as NAO.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarigu, A.; Montaldo, N.

2017-12-01

In the Mediterranean region, the reduction in precipitation and warmer temperatures is generating a desertification process, with dramatic consequences for both agriculture and the sustainability of water resources. On the island of Sardinia (Italy), the decrease in runoff impacts the management of water resources, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. Trends in yearly runoff are negative, with Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. Decreasing winter precipitation over the 1975-2010 period everywhere on Sardinia island has led to these decreases in runoff, as most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The trend in winter precipitation is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher (around -0.25) on the west Sardinian coast, becoming lower across the island toward the east coast (around -0.14). Winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO index and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, these correlations decrease east across the island toward the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, reaching the lowest values along the east coast (about -0.25). The decreasing correlation between winter NAO index and winter precipitation in the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) here accelerates due to local-scale orographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact on the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the precipitation reduction due to the NAO. Such local topographic effects that may attenuate large-scale climate change effects must be considered in water resource planning and management alongside such climate change effects related to large-scale circulations, such as NAO.

Hydro-climate variability and teleconnection patterns during the last millennium in NW Africa, inferred from speleothem records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Brahim, Y.; Cheng, H.; Sifeddine, A.; Wassenburg, J. A.; Khodri, M.; Cruz, F. W., Sr.

2017-12-01

In this study, we present new paleoclimate records from two well dated Moroccan speleothems. Our stalagmites were sampled from Ifoulki cave in the Western High Atlas Mountains in SW Morocco and Chaara cave in the Eastern Middle Atlas Mountains in NE Morocco. The new paleo-records cover the last 1000 years with a high resolution and reveal substantial swings of dry and humid periods with decadal to multidecadal frequencies. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by generally dry conditions, while wetter conditions are recorded during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and a trend towards dry conditions during the 20th century. These observations are consistent with regional climate signals, providing new insights on common climate controls and teleconnection patterns in NW Africa. We emphasize that the hydro-climate conditions in Morocco remained under the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). At longer timescales, we hypothesize that the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA influenced the regional climate in NW Africa through interactions with local mechanisms, such as the Sahara Low, which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

Cooperative satellite-based flood detection, mapping, and river monitoring in near real time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brakenridge, Robert G.; Nghiem, Son V.

2004-01-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combine to influence the planetary wave structure over the northern hemisphere. Floods and droughts are associated around the world with ENSO through such teleconnections, and improved flood prediction relies on understanding them better. The scientific study of floods, and consistent measurements thereof, are needed in order to allow 'Greenhouse warming' predictions about flooding to be tested, and the hydrologic effects of other phenomena such as ENSO to be evaluated. The needed tasks are: 1) detection/warning of flooding, 2) flood magnitude assessment, 3) flood inundation mapping, and 4) preservation of the record of flooding. Accomplishing these same tasks provides direct local societal benefits as well: they can save lives and reduce economic loss. We emphasize that the basic science observations need not be divorced from the immediate practical applications: both can occur together, and just as is the case for meteorological remote sensing.

North Atlantic Oscillation drives the annual occurrence of an isolated, peripheral population of the brown seaweed Fucus guiryi in the Western Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Melero-Jiménez, Ignacio J.; Salvo, A. Enrique; Báez, José C.; Bañares-España, Elena; Reul, Andreas

2017-01-01

The canopy-forming, intertidal brown (Phaeophyceae) seaweed Fucus guiryi is distributed along the cold-temperate and warm-temperate coasts of Europe and North Africa. Curiously, an isolated population develops at Punta Calaburras (Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean) but thalli are not present in midsummer every year, unlike the closest (ca. 80 km), perennial populations at the Strait of Gibraltar. The persistence of the alga at Punta Calaburras could be due to the growth of resilient, microscopic stages as well as the arrival of few–celled stages originating from neighbouring localities, and transported by the permanent Atlantic Jet flowing from the Atlantic Ocean into the Mediterranean. A twenty-six year time series (from 1990 to 2015) of midsummer occurrence of F. guiryi thalli at Punta Calaburras has been analysed by correlating with oceanographic (sea surface temperature, an estimator of the Atlantic Jet power) and climatic factors (air temperature, rainfall, and North Atlantic Oscillation –NAO-, and Arctic Oscillation –AO- indexes). The midsummer occurrence of thalli clustered from 1990–1994 and 1999–2004, with sporadic occurrences in 2006 and 2011. Binary logistic regression showed that the occurrence of thalli at Punta Calaburras in midsummer is favoured under positive NAO index from April to June. It has been hypothesized that isolated population of F. guiryi should show greater stress than their congeners of permanent populations, and to this end, two approaches were used to evaluate stress: one based on the integrated response during ontogeny (developmental instability, based on measurements of the fractal branching pattern of algal thalli) and another based on the photosynthetic response. Although significant differences were detected in photosynthetic quantum yield and water loss under emersion conditions, with thalli from Punta Calaburras being more affected by emersion than those from Tarifa, the developmental instability showed that the population from Tarifa suffers higher stress during ontogeny than that from Punta Calaburras. In conclusion, this study demonstrates the teleconnection between atmospheric oscillations and survival and proliferation of marine macroalgae. PMID:29158980

The role of climate variability in extreme floods in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

Between 1980 and 2015, Europe experienced 18% of worldwide weather-related loss events, which accounted for over US500 billion in damage. Consequently, it is urgent to further develop adaptation strategies to mitigate the consequences of weather-related disasters, such as floods. Europe's capability to prepare for such disasters is challenged by a large range of uncertainties and a limited understanding of the driving forces of hydrometeorological hazards. One of the major sources of uncertainty is the relationship between climate variability and weather-related losses. Previous studies show that climate variability drives temporal changes in hydrometereological variables in Europe. However, their influence on flood risk has received little attention. We investigated the influence of the positive and negative phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), on the seasonal frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, and anomalies in flood occurrence and damage compared to the neutral phases of the indices of climate variability. Using statistical methods to analyze relationships between the indices of climate variability and four indicators of flooding, we found that positive and negative phases of NAO and AO are associated with more (or less) frequent and intense seasonal extreme rainfall over large areas of Europe. The relationship between ENSO and both the occurrence of extreme rainfall and intensity of extreme rainfall in Europe is much smaller than the relationship with NAO or AO, but still significant in some regions. We observe that flood damage and flood occurrence have strong links with climate variability, especially in southern and eastern Europe. Therefore, when investigating flooding across Europe, all three indices of climate variability should be considered. Seasonal forecasting of flooding could be enhanced by the inclusion of climate variability indicators .

Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

Relationships between teleconnection patterns and Turkish climatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltacı, H.; Akkoyunlu, B. O.; Tayanç, M.

2017-12-01

This is a study on the effects of teleconnection patterns (TPs) on the extremes of temperature and precipitation over Turkey. Relationships between five teleconnection patterns, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), East Atlantic-Western Russia (EAWR), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian (SCA) patterns, and 11 climate extreme indices were studied by using 94 uniformly distributed meteorological stations over Turkey for the period of 1965-2014. Analyzing strong positive and negative temperature deviations from the 50-year-winter means shows that such extremes can often be explained by using AO and EAWR patterns. During the negative AO, generally more warm days occur over Black Sea (r = -0.6) and Aegean regions (r = -0.7). This phase of AO also generates above-normal precipitation in the western parts of the Anatolian Peninsula (r around - 0.5). Winter-time negative AO is mainly associated with the presence of a deepened Genoa cyclone over Italy that can transport warm and moist air mass from Mediterranean Sea towards Turkey by strong westerly winds. In contrast, positive EAWR is mainly connected to cold nights over Black Sea (r = 0.6) and Aegean regions (r = 0.6) together with positive precipitation anomalies at the seaside stations of the eastern Black Sea region. On the other hand, when positive EAWR prevails, Azores high-pressure center expands towards continental Europe bringing cold air by strong northerly winds together with higher moisture transport from the Black Sea. These results could pave the way for new possibilities regarding the projection of extremes in downscaling techniques.

The influences of the AMO and NAO on an Iberian alpine lake during the Late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Leira, Manel; Trigo, Ricardo; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Carballeira, Rafael; Sáez, Alberto

2017-04-01

High mountain lakes, usually oligotrophic, in the Iberian Peninsula are particularly sensitive to the influence of North Atlantic large-scale modes of climate variability due to their geographical position and the reduced direct anthropic disturbances. In this context, Serra da Estrela (Portugal), in the westernmost of the Sistema Central Range, constitutes a physical barrier to air masses coming from the Atlantic Ocean. However, long-term climate reconstructions have not yet been conducted. We present a climate reconstruction in terms of precipitation and temperature changes of this setting based on facies analysis, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter and a preliminary study of diatom assemblages from the sedimentary record of Lake Peixão (1677 m a.s.l.; Serra da Estrela) for the last ca. 3500 years. A multivariate statistical analysis has been performed to recognize the main environmental factors controlling the lake sedimentation. Our results reveal that two main processes explain 70% of the total variance, with PC1 (accumulation of siliciclastic material vs organic matter), and PC2 (variations in lacustrine productivity, related to nutrient inputs from the catchment), explaining 53% and 17% respectively. In mountain lakes, siliciclastic and/or external organic matter accumulation tend to be governed by the snowmelt which, in turn, are frequently controlled by winter and spring temperatures. On the other hand, lake productivity, usually limited by phosphorus and nitrogen, is dependent of internal recycling and/or external inputs, mainly by catchment leaching (climatically driven by summer precipitation) and atmospheric deposition (anthropic influence). The results from Lake Peixão have been compared to other Western Iberia and Northeastern Atlantic records, as well as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Thus, a tentative Late Holocene climate reconstruction from Western Iberia has been performed. Two relative colder phases (ca. 2500-2000 and 550-100 cal yrs BP) and two relative colder events (ca. 1380 and 1200 cal yrs BP) have been identified. These cold periods are likely influenced by negative NAO and AMO phases, whereas relative warmer conditions would be related periods in which NAO and AMO phases are both in positive phase. Additionally, five relative wetter phases (ca. 3600-2850; 2750-2500; 2200-2100; 1500-1400 and 400-150 cal yrs BP) have also been recognised. These relative wetter periods were usually linked to NAO and AMO both in negative phase, whereas background and relative drier conditions would be concurrent with NAO and AMO in positive phase. Hence, our results highlight that although the climate regime in this area is clearly influenced by the NAO, the slow-varying AMO also plays a key role at long-term time-scales. Publication supported by FCTproject UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz and Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness project RapidNAO (CGL2013-661 40608-R)

Coherence among climate signals, precipitation, and groundwater.

PubMed

Ghanbari, Reza Namdar; Bravo, Hector R

2011-01-01

Climate signals may affect groundwater level at different time scales in different geographical regions, and those patterns or time scales can be estimated using coherence analysis. This study shows that the synthesis effort required to search for patterns at the physical geography scale is possible, and this approach should be applicable in other regions of the world. The relations between climate signals, Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Pattern (SOI, PDO, NAO, and NP), precipitation, and groundwater level in three geographical areas of Wisconsin are examined using a three-tiered coherence analysis. In the high frequency band (<4(-1) cycles/year), there is a significant coherence between four climate signals and groundwater level in all three areas. In the low frequency band (>8(-1) to ≤23(-1) cycles/year), we found significant coherence between the SOI and NP signals and groundwater level in the forested area, characterized by shallow wells constructed in sand and gravel aquifers. In the high frequency band, there is significant coherence between the four climate signals and precipitation in all three areas. In the low frequency band, the four climate signals have effect on precipitation in the agricultural area, and SOI and NP have effect on precipitation in the forested and driftless areas. Precipitation affects groundwater level in all three areas, and in high, low and intermediate frequency bands. In the agricultural area, deeper aquifers and a more complex hydrostratigraphy and land use dilute the effect of precipitation on groundwater level for interdecadal frequencies. Copyright © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © 2010 National Ground Water Association.

Multi-decadal storminess fluctuations of Black Sea due to North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, Sergey; Saprykina, Yana; Grigorieva, Victoria; Aydoǧan, Berna; Aydoǧan, Burak

2017-04-01

Storminess variability is of key importance for many marine applications, naval and coastal engineering. Studying the evolution of this phenomenon along with large scale atmospheric patterns and being able to predict them is crucial for in the context of rising sea level due to climate change what make the low-lying coasts in the Black Sea to become increasingly vulnerable to marine hazards. The aim of this work is to clarify the trends, statistics and reasons of variations of storminess in dependence of such climatic characteristic as NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation Index). The analysis of Black Sea storminess activity was performed on the base of visual wave observations (Voluntary Observing Ship or VOS) for the period 1970-2011. Annual means and maximum heights of wind-driven seas and swell waves averaging over whole Black Sea area were investigated separately. The both wind-driven seas and swell demonstrate the decreasing in heights about 10% the same as their periods for the chosen time frame. Parametric spectral analysis was performed. The periods of wave height fluctuations for wind-driven seas and swell were shown to coincide with each other and with periods of low frequency fluctuation of NOA: 14 and 4 year respectively. Correlation coefficients of wave height and NOA were 0.3 for swell and 0.4 for wind-driven sea. Nonlinear regularities of NAO fluctuations were investigated using wavelet and spavlet (spectra of modules of wavelet coefficients) analyses. Their influence on variability of storminess in Black Sea is discussed. The reported study was funded by RFBR (project No. 16-55-76002 ERA_a) and by TUBITAK (project No. 116M061) in frame of BS STEMA project.

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Barents-Kara sea ice and the winter NAO in the DePreSys3 Met Office Seasonal forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, J.; Screen, J.

2017-12-01

Accurate seasonal forecasting leads to a wide range of socio-economic benefits and increases resilience to prolonged bouts of extreme weather. This work looks at how November Barents-Kara sea ice may affect the winter northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using various compositing methods in the DePreSys3 ensemble model, with lag to argue better a relationship between the two. In particular, the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is focused on given its implications on European weather. Using this large hindcast dataset comprised of 35 years with 30 available ensemble members, it is found that low Barents-Kara sea ice leads to a negative NAO tendency in all composite methods, with increased mean sea level pressure in higher latitudes. The significance of this varies between composites. This is preliminary analysis of a larger PhD project to further understand how Arctic Sea ice may play a role in seasonal forecasting skill through its connection/influence on mid-latitude weather.

Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, U.; Christoph, M.; Pinto, J. G.; Corte-Real, J.

1999-03-01

The relationship between winter (DJF) rainfall over Portugal and the variable large scale circulation is addressed. It is shown that the poles of the sea level pressure (SLP) field variability associated with rainfall variability are shifted about 15° northward with respect to those used in standard definitions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It is suggested that the influence of NAO on rainfall dominantly arises from the associated advection of humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Rainfall is also related to different aspects of baroclinic wave activity, the variability of the latter quantity in turn being largely dependent on the NAO.A negative NAO index (leading to increased westerly surface geostrophic winds into Portugal) is associated with an increased number of deep (ps<980 hPa) surface lows over the central North Atlantic and of intermediate (980

The effects of climate change on harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus).

PubMed

Johnston, David W; Bowers, Matthew T; Friedlaender, Ari S; Lavigne, David M

2012-01-01

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data.

The Effects of Climate Change on Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

PubMed Central

Johnston, David W.; Bowers, Matthew T.; Friedlaender, Ari S.; Lavigne, David M.

2012-01-01

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data. PMID:22238591

Characterization of Bacillus subtilis strains in Thua nao, a traditional fermented soybean food in northern Thailand.

PubMed

Inatsu, Y; Nakamura, N; Yuriko, Y; Fushimi, T; Watanasiritum, L; Kawamoto, S

2006-09-01

To clarify the diversity of Bacillus subtilis strains in Thua nao that produce high concentrations of products useful in food manufacturing and in health-promoting compounds. Production of amylase, protease, subtilisin NAT (nattokinase), and gamma-polyglutamic acid (PGA) by the Bacillus subtilis strains in Thua nao was measured. Productivity of protease NAT by these strains tended to be higher than by Japanese commercial natto-producing strains. Molecular diversity of isolated strains was analysed via randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-PCR fingerprinting. The strains were divided into 19 types, including a type with the same pattern as a Japanese natto-producing strain. B. subtilis strains that could be a resource for effective production of protease, amylase, subtilisin NAT, or PGA were evident in Thua nao produced in various regions in northern Thailand. This study clearly demonstrated the value of Thua nao as a potential resource of food-processing enzymes and health-promoting compounds.

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Low Frequency Modulation of Extreme Temperature Regimes in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Black, Robert X.

2014-11-24

The project examines long-term changes in extreme temperature episodes (ETE) associated with planetary climate modes (PCMs) in both the real atmospheric and climate model simulations. The focus is on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs) occurring over the continental US during the past 60 winters. No significant long-term trends in either WWs or CAOs are observed over the US. The annual frequency of CAOs is affected by the (i) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the Southeast US and (ii) Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern over the Northwest US. WW frequency is influenced by the (i) NAO over the easternmore » US and (ii) combined influence of PNA, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO over the southern US. The collective influence of PCMs accounts for as much as 50% of the regional variability in ETE frequency. During CAO (WW) events occurring over the southeast US, there are low (high) pressure anomalies at higher atmospheric levels over the southeast US with oppositely-signed pressure anomalies in the lower atmosphere over the central US. These patterns lead to anomalous northerly (for CAOs) or southerly (for WWs) flow into the southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. One distinction is that CAOs involve substantial air mass transport while WW formation is more local in nature. The primary differences among event categories are in the origin and nature of the pressure anomaly features linked to ETE onset. In some cases, PCMs help to provide a favorable environment for event onset. Heat budget analyses indicate that latitudinal transport in the lower atmosphere is the main contributor to regional cooling during CAO onset. This is partly offset by adiabatic warming associated with subsiding air. Additional diagnoses reveal that this latitudinal transport is partly due to the remote physical influence of a shallow cold pool of air trapped along the east side of the Rocky Mountains. ETE and PCM behavior is also studied in (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Although the climate models considered are able to represent the overall behavior of ETEs, the frequency of WWs (CAOs) is too high (low) in many models. While all models qualitatively replicate the overall structure of the PNA pattern, a small minority of models fails to properly simulate the NAO pattern. Model shortcomings in representing the NAO and PNA patterns have important consequences for simulating associated regional variability in surface air temperature and storm track behavior. The influence of PCMs on ETEs is underestimated in most CMIP5 models. In particular, none of the models are able to accurately simulate observed linkages between ETEs and the PDO, due to a gross misrepresentation of the PDO pattern in most models. Our results indicate that predictions of future CAO and WW behavior are currently limited by the ability of climate models to accurately represent PCM characteristics. Our study also considers the behavior of PCMs known as annular modes. It is determined that north-south movements in the stratospheric jet stream (related to the Polar Annular Mode) result in long-lasting impacts upon surface weather conditions including regional air temperature anomalies. The structure and dynamics of the stratospheric northern annular mode (or SNAM, related to changes in the strength of the stratospheric jet stream) was studied in CMIP5 models. In models with poorly-resolved stratospheres, the amplitude of SNAM at stratospheric altitudes is typically too weak, consistent with weaker stratospheric jet variability. However, this distinction does not carry over to the associated tropospheric signature of SNAM. A regional analysis illustrates that most CMIP5 models (regardless of whether the stratosphere is well-resolved) have anomalously weak and eastward shifted (compared to observed SNAM events) storm track and sea level pressure anomaly patterns during SNAM events. Analyses of stratosphere–troposphere coupling reveal that large-scale wave activity in the stratosphere is anomalously weak in CMIP5 models having poorly-resolved stratospheres, due to correspondingly weak upward propagation of wave activity from the troposphere. This suggests that such models have anomalously weak stratosphere-troposphere coupling in association with SNAM events. Paradoxically, however, there is little apparent impact upon the attendant tropospheric variability.« less

The role of the NAO on the North Atlantic hydrological conditions and its interplay with the EA and SCAND atmospheric patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Rubio-Ingles, M. J.; Shanahan, T. M.; Sáez, A.; Raposeiro, P. M.; Vázquez-Loureiro, D.; Sánchez-López, G.; Gonçalves, V. M.; Bao, R.; Trigo, R.; Giralt, S.

2016-12-01

The NAO is the main atmospheric circulation mode controlling the largest fraction of the North Atlantic climate variability. It is defined by the normalized air pressure difference between the Azores High and the Iceland Low as the southern and northern centers of action of the dipole respectively. The NAO pattern has large influence over the precipitation regime in the North Atlantic and the western facade of Europe. Thus, the Lake Azul (São Miguel island, Azores archipelago), with a strategic location in the middle of the north Atlantic Ocean, is influenced by variations on intensity and position of the southern NAO center of action. The reconstruction of the past hydrological conditions in lake location for the last 700 years was obtained by means of high resolution δD plant leaf wax analyses, a proxy for the Precipitation/Evaporation ratio. The 700 years of climatic history included the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the modern Global Warming (GW). The hydrological results showed multidecadal variations with no particular conditions at any climatic period. Overall, the MCA (1285 - 1350 AD) displayed mostly dry conditions, the LIA (1350 - 1820 AD) was mainly wet and, the last 200 years of record showed highly variable conditions. The lake Azul hydrological variations have been compared with a wide range of additional proxy datasets, including: documentary, ice, tree rings, speleothem, lacustrine and oceanic records from the North Atlantic. This comparison has allowed us to understand the decadal and centennial imprints of the NAO as well as to infer its interaction with other relevant large-scale circulation patterns over this sector, such as the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAND) climate modes.

Regional Differences in Stratospheric Intrusions over the USA Investigated using the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Ott, L.; Hodges, K.; Wargan, K.; Duncan, B. N.

2016-12-01

Stratospheric intrusions (SI) - the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere - have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedences, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of SIs in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. This study investigates the atmospheric dynamics that generate SIs over the western USA and the different mechanisms through which SIs may influence atmospheric chemistry and surface air quality over the eastern USA. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of SIs over the continental US is performed using NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis dataset and other Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) model products. Both upper-level and lower-level dynamical features are examined on seasonal timescales using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999). We show how upper-level relative vorticity maxima - representing troughs and cut-off lows - can be tracked and related to the lower-level storm tracks. The influence of both sets of tracks on the assimilated MERRA-2 ozone and meteorological parameters throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere is quantified. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence the weather patterns in the USA, namely the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), predicative patterns in the meteorological fields that are associated with SIs are identified for their regional effects.

Climate-driven Shifting in Distribution Patterns of Calanus sinicus Brodsky in the Continental Shelf Waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Liu, H.; Yan, Q. L.; Fan, J. F.

2016-02-01

Large-scale variations in zooplankton dynamics, including the poleward movements and earlier timing of life cycle events, have been widely observed over recent decades. The biogeographical shifts are often related to the increasing sea surface temperature or the long-term climatological change, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Niño Southern Oscillation (NESO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The Copepod Calanus sinicus Brodsky plays an important trophic role in the continental shelf waters of the Northwest Pacific Ocean as a grazer of phytoplankton and main food source for many ecologically and commercially important fish, such as sardine and anchovy. Because of its importance in marine ecosystem dynamics, C. sinicus was selected as one of the "keystone species" in the China-GLOBEC program. In this study, we examined the shifts in spatial patterns of the species within its distribution domain - the Yellow Sea and the northern East China Sea in the 1950s, 1980s and 2010s. We used contour mapping and a mathematical model to locate the geographical distribution center of the species. We found a significant relationship (r=0.594, P<0.05) between the monthly PDO index and the latitudes of the distribution center of C. sinicus, and a lag of two months for copepods to respond the PDO index. Our findings imply a northward shifting in the distribution center, and the northern Yellow Sea is becoming a new distribution center as another possible over-summering site of C. sinicus.

Mediterranean summer climate and the monsoon regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldi, M.; Crisci, A.; Dalu, G. A.; Maracchi, G.; Meneguzzo, F.; Pasqui, M.

2003-04-01

The Authors examine the general features of climate of the Mediterranean Region, i.e. its variability and trends in the last 40 years, and the teleconnections between Mediterranean climate and the global climate, using zonal and global indices. In particular they focus the attention on the analysis of the summer Mediterranean climate, and its variability and connection with the summer monsoon regimes. Several subregions can be distinguished in the Mediterranean for each season, and the occurrence of Mediterranean Oscillation is evident between West and East sub-basins. Precipitation and SLP fields in the Eastern basin are shown to be correlated with Mediterranean Oscillation. A total decrease of precipitation has been detected in last few years, although there are some very intense. During winter a fundamental role is played by NAO index, which, influencing the storm tracks coming from the Atlantic and passing over the Mediterranean and North Europe, it has a major role in the precipitation patterns over the Region. Moreover, temperature analysis over the last 40 years in the Mediterranean shows a distinct warming, in agreement with the pattern over North Emisphere and NAO index fluctuations. During summer the Hadley cell extend further northwards, influencing the Mediterranean climate, and there is evidence of a possible teleconnection with the Asian Monsoon, and the Sahel precipitation (and related Hadley cell): the SLP field in the Eastern Mediterranean is inversely correlated with those two precipitation indices, while it is positively correlated with the pressure in the Western Mediterranean. Leading mechanisms of interaction between Mediterranean summer rainfall and SLP patterns and precipitation indices associated with monsoon regimes are stressed out and investigated, as well as the influence of the position and strength of the Hadley cell, by means of both statistical and dynamical analytical arguments. A modeling study has been carried out in order to study the variations and the anomalies in the recent Mediterranean summer precipitation patterns, consisting of two main phases. In the first phase, a numerical regional atmospheric model has been used to downscale the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a good agreement between model simulations and observations, proving the capability of the modeling tool. During the second phase, following and extending recent experiences the numerical model has been used to identify the features and extent of the impacts of the location and strength of the West Africa summer monsoon - therefore the regional Hadley cell - to the Mediterranean climate, by selectively modifying the main forcing of that tropical circulation, i.e. the Gulf of Guinea sea surface temperatures.

Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fohlmeister, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Dudashvili, Alexey Sergeevich; Tjallingii, Rik; Wolff, Christian; Gafurov, Abror; Cheng, Hai

2017-12-01

The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

Climatic impact on community of filamentous macroalgae in the Neva estuary (eastern Baltic Sea).

PubMed

Gubelit, Yulia I

2015-02-15

In presented study the impact of climatic factors and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on macroalgal community was analysed. Also the factors influencing algal community were defined with help of Principal Component and Classification analysis. It was found that climatic impact may depend on habitat features and that on different sites biomass of macroalgae correlated with different weather factors. Wind and surf may affect biomass of macroalgae adversely on some sites and at the same time on other sites they may accumulate biomass, transferring it is from adjacent areas. High direct correlation with temperature was found on sites which were protected from surf and had no stagnant events. Seasonal biomass inversely significantly correlated with average seasonal wind speed and annual NAO-index. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Response of the North Atlantic Bloom to NAO Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mizoguchi, Ken-Ichi; Worthen, Denise L.; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Gregg, Watson W.

2004-01-01

Results from the climatologically forced coupled ice/ocean/biogeochemical model that covers the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans are presented and compared to the chlorophyll fields of satellite-derived ocean color measurements. Biogeochemical processes in the model are determined from the interactions among four phytoplankton functional groups (diatoms, chlorophytes, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) and four nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, silicate and dissolved iron). The model simulates the general large-scale pattern in April, May and June, when compared to both satellite-derived and in situ observations. The subpolar North Atlantic was cool in the 1980s and warm in the latter 1990s, corresponding to the CZCS and SeaWiFS satellite observing periods, respectively. The oceanographic conditions during these periods resemble the typical subpolar upper ocean response to the NAO+ and NAO-phases, respectively. Thus, we use the atmospheric forcing composites from the two NAO phases to simulate the variability of the mid-ocean bloom during the satellite observing periods. The model results show that when the subpolar North Atlantic is cool, the NAO+ case, more nutrients are available in early spring than when the North Atlantic is warm, the NAO-case. However, the NAO+ simulation produces a later bloom than the NAO-simulation. This difference in the bloom times is also identified in SeaWiFS and CZCS satellite measurements. In the model results, we can trace the difference to the early diatom bloom due to a warmer upper ocean. The higher nutrient abundance in the NAO+ case did not provide larger total production than in the NAO- case, instead the two cases had a comparable area averaged amplitude. This leads us to conclude that in the subpolar North Atlantic, the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom depends on surface temperature and the magnitude of the bloom is not significantly impacted by the nutrient abundance.

The Low-Frequency Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haekkinen, Sirpa; Mo, Kingtse C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

2015-01-01

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

Multiproxy evidence of Holocene climate variability from estuarine sediments, eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Thunell, R.; Dwyer, G.S.; Saenger, C.; Mann, M.E.; Vann, C.; Seal, R.R.

2005-01-01

We reconstructed paleoclimate patterns from oxygen and carbon isotope records from the fossil estuarine benthic foraminifera Elphidium and Mg/ Ca ratios from the ostracode Loxoconcha from sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay to examine the Holocene evolution of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-type climate variability. Precipitation-driven river discharge and regional temperature variability are the primary influences on Chesapeake Bay salinity and water temperature, respectively. We first calibrated modern ??18 Owater to salinity and applied this relationship to calculate trends in paleosalinity from the ??18 Oforam, correcting for changes in water temperature estimated from ostracode Mg /Ca ratios. The results indicate a much drier early Holocene in which mean paleosalinity was ???28 ppt in the northern bay, falling ???25% to ???20 ppt during the late Holocene. Early Holocene Mg/Ca-derived temperatures varied in a relatively narrow range of 13?? to 16??C with a mean temperature of 14.2??C and excursions above 16??C; the late Holocene was on average cooler (mean temperature of 12.8??C). In addition to the large contrast between early and late Holocene regional climate conditions, multidecadal (20-40 years) salinity and temperature variability is an inherent part of the region's climate during both the early and late Holocene, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age. These patterns are similar to those observed during the twentieth century caused by NAO-related processes. Comparison of the midlatitude Chesapeake Bay salinity record with tropical climate records of Intertropical Convergence Zone fluctuations inferred from the Cariaco Basin titanium record suggests an anticorrelation between precipitation in the two regions at both millennial and centennial timescales. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Twentieth-century atmospheric river activity along the west coasts of Europe and North America: algorithm formulation, reanalysis uncertainty and links to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brands, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; San-Martín, D.

2017-05-01

A new atmospheric-river detection and tracking scheme based on the magnitude and direction of integrated water vapour transport is presented and applied separately over 13 regions located along the west coasts of Europe (including North Africa) and North America. Four distinct reanalyses are considered, two of which cover the entire twentieth-century: NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis v2 (NOAA-20C) and ECMWF ERA-20C. Calculations are done separately for the OND and JFM-season and, for comparison with previous studies, for the ONDJFM-season as a whole. Comparing the AR-counts from NOAA-20C and ERA-20C with a running 31-year window looping through 1900-2010 reveals differences in the climatological mean and inter-annual variability which, at the start of the twentieth-century, are much more pronounced in western North America than in Europe. Correlating European AR-counts with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reveals a pattern reminiscent of the well-know precipitation dipole which is stable throughout the entire century. A similar analysis linking western North American AR-counts to the North Pacific index (NPI) is hampered by the aforementioned poor reanalysis agreement at the start of the century. During the second half of the twentieth-century, the strength of the NPI-link considerably varies with time in British Columbia and the Gulf of Alaska. Considering the period 1950-2010, AR-counts are then associated with other relevant large-scale circulation indices such as the East Atlantic, Scandinavian, Pacific-North American and West Pacific patterns (EA, SCAND, PNA and WP). Along the Atlantic coastline of the Iberian Peninsula and France, the EA-link is stronger than the NAO-link if the OND season is considered and the SCAND-link found in northern Europe is significant during both seasons. Along the west coast of North America, teleconnections are generally stronger during JFM in which case the NPI-link is significant in any of the five considered subregions, the PNA-link is significant in British Columbia and the Gulf of Alaska and the WP-link is so along the U.S. West Coast. During OND, these links are significant in the Gulf of Alaska only. If AR-counts are calculated upon persistent (instead of instantaneous) ARs, the link to the NAO weakens over the British Isles and western Iberia. For the experimental set-ups most closely mirroring those applied in Lavers et al. (J Geophys Res Atmos 117, 2012. doi: 10.1029/2012JD018027) and Ramos et al. (J Hydrometeorol 16(2):579-597, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0103.1), the NAO-links are completely or partly insignificant indicating that the inclusion of the persistence criterion notably alters the results. Visual support for the present study is provided by an exhaustive historical atmospheric river archive built at http://www.meteo.unican.es/atmospheric-rivers.

A switch in the Atlantic Oscillation correlates with inter-annual changes in foraging location and food habits of Macaronesian shearwaters (Puffinus baroli) nesting on two islands of the sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Jaime A.; Isabel Fagundes, Ana; Xavier, José C.; Fidalgo, Vera; Ceia, Filipe R.; Medeiros, Renata; Paiva, Vitor H.

2015-10-01

Changes in oceanographic conditions, shaped by changes in large-scale atmospheric phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. Such signals are readily captured by marine top predators, given that their use of foraging habitats and diets change when the NAO changes. In this study we assessed sexual, seasonal and annual (2010/11-2012/13) differences in diet, trophic and isotopic niche (using δ15N and δ13C values of whole blood, 1st primary, 8th secondary and breast feathers), foraging locations and oceanographic variation within foraging areas for Macaronesian shearwaters' (Puffinus baroli) during two years of contrasting NAO values, and between two sub-tropical islands 330 km apart in the North Atlantic Ocean, Cima Islet and Selvagem Grande. These two locations provide contrasting oceanographic foraging regimes for the birds, because the second colony is much closer to the African coast (375 vs 650 km), and, therefore, to the upwelling area of the Canary Current. There was a marked environmental perturbation in 2010/2011, related with a negative NAO Index and lower marine productivity (lower concentration of Chlorophyll a). This event corresponded to the Macaronesian shearwaters feeding farther north and west, which was readily seen in change of both δ15N and δ13C values, and in a higher intake of cephalopods. Diet and stable isotopes did not differ between sexes. Regurgitation analysis indicate a dominance of cephalopods in both islands, but prey fish were important for Selvagem Grande in 2012 and cephalopods for Cima Islet in 2011. Both δ15N and δ13C values were significantly higher for Cima Islet than for Selvagem Grande, irrespective of year, season and tissue sampled. SIBER analysis showed smaller isotopic niches for the breeding period. Our study suggests that during years of poor environmental conditions Macaronesian shearwaters shift their foraging location to more pelagic waters, take more cephalopods and overall present a narrower isotopic niche.

Climate variability and the European agricultural production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Hunink, Johannes E.; Baruth, Bettina; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

2017-04-01

By 2050, the global demand for maize, wheat and other major crops is expected to grow sharply. To meet this challenge, agricultural systems have to increase substantially their production. However, the expanding world population, coupled with a decline of arable land per person, and the variability in global climate, are obstacles to achieving the increasing demand. Creating a resilient agriculture system requires the incorporation of preparedness measures against weather-related events, which can trigger disruptive risks such as droughts. This study examines the influence of large-scale climate variability on agriculture production applying a robust decision-making tool named fast-and-frugal trees (FFT). We created FFTs using a dataset of crop production and indices of climate variability: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our main goal is to predict the occurrence of below-average crop production, using these two indices at different lead times. Initial results indicated that SOI and NAO have strong links with European low sugar beet production. For some areas, the FFTs were able to detect below-average productivity events six months before harvesting with hit rate and predictive positive value higher than 70%. We found that shorter lead times, such as three months before harvesting, have the highest predictive skill. Additionally, we observed that the responses of low production events to the phases of the NAO and SOI vary spatially and seasonally. Through the comprehension of the relationship between large scale climate variability and European drought related agricultural impact, this study reflects on how this information could potentially improve the management of the agricultural sector by coupling the findings with seasonal forecasting system of crop production.

The impact of AMO and NAO in Western Iberia during the Late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Leira, M.; Trigo, R.; Vázquez-Loureiro, D.; Carballeira, R.; Sáez, A.

2016-12-01

High mountain lakes in the Iberian Peninsula are particularly sensitive to the influence of North Atlantic large-scale modes of climate variability due to their geographical position and the reduced anthropic disturbances. In this context, Serra da Estrela (Portugal), the westernmost range of the Sistema Central, constitutes a physical barrier to air masses coming from the Atlantic Ocean. However, long-term climate reconstructions have not yet been conducted. We present a climate reconstruction of this region based on facies analysis, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter and a preliminary study of diatom assemblages from the sedimentary record of Lake Peixão (1677 m a.s.l.; Serra da Estrela) for the last ca. 3500 years. A multivariate statistical analysis has been performed to recognize the main environmental factors controlling the sedimentary infill. Our results reveal that two main processes explain the 70% of the total variance. Thus, changes in primary productivity, reflected in organic matter accumulation, and variations in runoff, related to external particles input, explain 53% and 17% respectively. Additionally, evidence of changes in productivity and water level regime recorded as variations in diatom assemblages correlate well with our interpretations. A comparison between the lake productivity changes and previous Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) reconstructions shows a good correlation, suggesting this climate mode as the main driver over lacustrine primary productivity at multi-decadal scales. In turn, changes in terrigenous inputs, linked to precipitation, seem to be more influenced by the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability. Hence, our results highlight that although the climate regime in this area is clearly influenced by the NAO, the AMO also plays a key role at long-term time-scales.

Dynamical adjustment of Scandinavian glacier mass-balance time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonan, D.; Christian, J. E.; Christianson, K. A.

2017-12-01

Glacier mass wastage is often cited as one of the most visible manifestations of anthropogenic climate change. Annual glacier mass-balance is related to local climate and atmospheric circulation, as it is defined as the yearly sum of accumulation and ablation—processes that are strongly influenced by year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation and temperature. Glacier response to a climatic trend can, however, be masked by internal variability in atmospheric circulation, and by non-climatic factors (such as topographic control, wind deposition, and incident solar radiation). Thus, unambiguous attribution of a negative glacier mass-balance trend to anthropogenic forcing remains challenging. Maritime glacier mass-balance records may be especially difficult to interpret due to the high winter balances from decadal-scale climate oscillations and the relatively short time series. Here we examine the influence of climate and atmospheric circulation variability on 14 Norwegian glaciers that span 20° of latitude, from southern Norway to Svalbard. We use dynamical adjustment—a statistical method based on partial least squares regression—to identify the components of variability within the mass-balance records that are associated with the time-varying sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) fields. We find that 30-50% of the variance in the winter mass-balance records of the glaciers in southern Norway is explained by using sea level pressure as a predictor. The leading SLP predictor pattern mimics the spatial signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indicating that winter balance is strongly influenced by the NAO. Moreover, the adjusted mass-balance records indicate a geographic trend: the southern Norwegian glaciers have significant negative trends in the summer balance that remain negative after adjustment, while the more northern glaciers have negative winter balance trends that only become significant after adjustment. We look into anthropogenic warming to explain the trends after dynamical adjustment.

A new record of Atlantic sea surface salinity from 1896-2013 reveals the signatures of climate variability and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, A. R.; Reverdin, G. P.; Khodri, M.; Gastineau, G.

2017-12-01

In the North Atlantic, sea surface salinity is both an indicator of the hydrological cycle and an active component of the ocean circulation. As an indirect "ocean rain gauge", surface salinity reflects the net surface fluxes of evaporation - precipitation + runoff, along with advection and vertical mixing. Subpolar surface salinity also may influence the strength of deep convection and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, continuous surface salinity time series beginning before the 1950s are rare, limiting our ability to resolve modes of variability and long-term trends. Here, we present a new gridded surface salinity record in the Atlantic from 1896-2013, compiled from a variety of historical sources. The compilation covers most of the Atlantic from 20°S-70°N, at 100-1000 km length scale and interannual temporal resolution, allowing us to resolve major modes of variability and linkages with large-scale Atlantic climate variations. We find that the low-latitude (tropical and subtropical) Atlantic and the subpolar Atlantic surface salinity are negatively correlated, with subpolar anomalies leading low-latitude anomalies by about a decade. Subpolar surface salinity varies in phase with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), whereas low-latitude surface salinity lags the AMO and varies in phase with the low-frequency North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Additionally, northern tropical surface salinity is anticorrelated with the AMO and with Sahel rainfall, suggesting that it reflects the latitude of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The 1896-2013 long-term trend features an amplification of the mean Atlantic surface salinity gradient pattern, with freshening in the subpolar Atlantic and salinification in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. We find that regressing out the AMO and the low-frequency NAO has little effect on the long-term residual trend. The spatial trend structure is consistent with the "rich-get-richer" hydrological cycle intensification response to global warming, and may also indicate increased Arctic cryosphere melting and surface runoff.

Influence of long-range atmospheric transport pathways and climate teleconnection patterns on the variability of surface 210Pb and 7Be concentrations in southwestern Europe.

PubMed

Grossi, C; Ballester, J; Serrano, I; Galmarini, S; Camacho, A; Curcoll, R; Morguí, J A; Rodò, X; Duch, M A

2016-12-01

The variability of the atmospheric concentration of the 7 Be and 210 Pb radionuclides is strongly linked to the origin of air masses, the strength of their sources and the processes of wet and dry deposition. It has been shown how these processes and their variability are strongly affected by climate change. Thus, a deeper knowledge of the relationship between the atmospheric radionuclides variability measured close to the ground and these atmospheric processes could help in the analysis of climate scenarios. In the present study, we analyze the atmospheric variability of a 14-year time series of 7 Be and 210 Pb in a Mediterranean coastal city using a synergy of different indicators and tools such as: the local meteorological conditions, global and regional climate indexes and a lagrangian atmospheric transport model. We particularly focus on the relationships between the main pathways of air masses and sun spots occurrence, the variability of the local relative humidity and temperature conditions, and the main modes of regional climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). The variability of the observed atmospheric concentrations of both 7 Be and 210 Pb radionuclides was found to be mainly positively associated to the local climate conditions of temperature and to the pathways of air masses arriving at the station. Measured radionuclide concentrations significantly increase when air masses travel at low tropospheric levels from central Europe and the western part of the Iberian Peninsula, while low concentrations are associated with westerly air masses. We found a significant negative correlation between the WeMO index and the atmospheric variability of both radionuclides and no significant association was observed for the NAO index. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tree-ring reconstruction of streamflow in the Snare River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, J. P.; Pisaric, M. F.

2017-12-01

Drought is a component of many ecosystems in North America causing environmental and socioeconomical impacts. In the ongoing context of climatic and environmental changes, drought-related issues are becoming problematic in northern Canada, which have not been associated with drought-like conditions in the past. Dryer than average conditions threatens the energy security of northern canadian communities, since this region relies on the production of hydroelectricity as an energy source. In the North Slave Region of Northwest Territory (NWT), water levels and streamflows were significantly lower in 2014/2015. The Government of the NWT had to spend nearly $50 million to purchase diesel fuel to generate enough electricity to supplement the reduced power generation of the Snare River hydroelectric system, hence the need to better understand the multi-decadal variability in streamflow. The aims of this presentation are i) to present jack pine and white spruce tree-ring chronologies of Southern NWT; ii) to reconstruct past streamflow of the Snare River Basin; iii) to evaluate the frequency and magnitude of extreme drought conditions, and iv) to identify which large-scale atmospheric or oceanic patterns are teleconnected to regional hydraulic conditions. Preliminary results show that the growth of jack pine and white spruce populations is better correlated with precipitation and temperature, respectively, than hydraulic conditions. Nonetheless, we present a robust streamflow reconstruction of the Snare River that is well correlated with the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, albeit the strength of the correlation is non-stationary. Spectral analysis corroborate the synchronicity between negative NAO conditions and drought conditions. From an operational standpoint, considering that the general occurrence of positive/negative NAO can be predicted, it the hope of the authors that these results can facilitate energetic planning in the Northwest Territories through the assessment of the prevailing streamflow scenario.

Potential links between the North Atlantic Oscillation and decreasing precipitation and runoff on Sardinia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, Nicola; Sarigu, Alessio

2017-04-01

Recently, climate change and human activities increased the desertification process in the Mediterranean regions, with dramatic consequences for agriculture and water resources. On the Sardinia island (Italy), runoff decreased significantly in the 1975-2010 period with a mean yearly runoff reduction of more than 50% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period. The decrease in runoff severely impacts the management of water resources on the Sardinia island, resulting in water supply restrictions even for domestic consumption. In the 10 Sardinian basins, with a longer database (at least 40 complete years of data, including data from the past 10 years), the trend of yearly runoff computed with the Mann-Kendall test is negative, with the Mann-Kendall τ values ranging from -0.39 to -0.2. The reason for the decrease in runoff is mainly the alarming decrease in the winter precipitation over the past few decades everywhere on the Sardinia island. Indeed, most of the yearly runoff of the Sardinian basins (on average, 70%) is produced by the winter precipitation due to the typical seasonality of the Mediterranean rainfall regime. Surprisingly, the winter precipitation trend is not homogenous; the negative trend is higher on the Sardinian west coast and becomes lower as one crosses the island toward the east coast. At the rain stations on the east coast, the τ Mann-Kendall values of the winter precipitation become almost half of the τ Mann-Kendall values on the west coast, which is exposed to the western European climate dynamics. In this sense, winter precipitation is highly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a weather phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean that controls the direction and strength of westerly winds and storm tracks into Europe. High negative correlations (up to -0.45) between winter NAO and winter precipitation are estimated along the west coast. Meanwhile, the correlations decrease as one crosses the island toward the east, encounters the high mountain in the center of Sardinia, and reaches the lowest values on the east coast (about -0.25). Hence, the general decreasing trend in the correlation between winter NAO and precipitation along the longitudinal direction (from the North Atlantic dipole to the east) is accelerating here due to local-scale topographic effects that overlap the large-scale NAO impact and affect the winter precipitation regime, thus softening the NAO impact on precipitation reduction.

The 11-year solar radiation rhythm and the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunck, Heiko; Sirocko, Frank

2016-04-01

The study is based on a historical chronology of freezing events in central Europe during the last 230 years (river Rhine (Sirocko et al. 2012), Baltic Sea (Koslowski and Glaser, 1999) and Lake Constance (Dobras, 1983)). These regions display both significant similarities with extremely cold winters in central Germany for the years 1799, 1830, 1895, 1929, 1940, 1942, 1947, 1956 and 1963, as well as regional differences in timing and severity of cold winters. The statistical analysis of all 92 historical freezing events showed that 80 events occurred during a negative NAOwinter phase. The bootstrap test defined the results as extremely significant. To understand the climatic forcing behind the freezing chronology the NAO data set was smoothed by a three point running mean filter and compared with the 11- year cyclicity of the sunspot numbers. A complete NAO cycle can be observed within each solar cycle back to 1960 and from 1820 to 1900. From 1900 to 1960 the correlation between the Sun and NAO was weak. This on/off mode becomes visible only in the smoothed NAO data, when time intervals longer than "normal" weather observations are analysed. Statistical test for the coherence of the entire 230 years are insignificant. However, the relation is highly significant, if only the intervals from 1960 to 2010 and 1830 to 1900 are analysed. The phase correlation can be explained by temperature variations up to +-2.5°C in time series of stratospheric air temperature at 40 km height, where ozone is formed by ultraviolet solar radiation. Advanced analysis of sea surface temperatures from reanalysis data (ECMWF Data Archiv, 2013) between 30° - 40°N and 65° - 75°N indicate similar temperature variations in phase with the solar activity. Consequently, the 11 year solar periodicity is related to various parts of the Earth/Ocean/Atmosphere system and not only to the stratospheric signal. However, the NAO is the dominating mediator to implement a solar component into the European winter extremes. References Dobras W (1983) Wenn der ganze Bodensee zugefroren ist … Die Seegfrörnen von 875-1963. Verlag Friedrich Stadler, Konstanz. ECMWF Data Archiv Server (2011) ERA interim data: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/data/archive/ Koslowski G, Glaser G (1999) Variations in reconstructed winter severity in the western Baltic from 1501 to 1995, and their implications from the North Atlantic Oscillation. Climatic Change, 41(2), 175-191. Sirocko F, Brunck H, Pfahl S (2012) Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16).

Understanding linkages between global climate indices and terrestrial water storage changes over Africa using GRACE products.

PubMed

Anyah, R O; Forootan, E; Awange, J L; Khaki, M

2018-09-01

Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003-2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contribution of Black Carbon Aerosol to Drying of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Samset, B. H.; Boucher, O.; Forster, P.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Sillmann, J.; Voulgarakis, A.; Andrews, T.; Faluvegi, G.; Fläschner, D.; Iverson, T.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Kirkevag, A.; Lamarque, J. F.; Olivié, D.; Richardson, T.; Stjern, C.; Takemura, T.; Zwiers, F. W.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect cloud properties, radiative balance and thus, the hydrological cycle. Many studies have reported that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the mid-20th century, and investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare observed Mediterranean precipitation trends during 1951-2010 with responses to individual forcing in a set of state-of-the-art global climate models. Our analyses suggest that nearly one-third (30%) of the observed precipitation decrease may be attributable to black carbon forcing. The remainder is most strongly linked to forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), with scattering sulfate aerosols having negligible impacts. Black carbon caused an enhanced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like sea level pressure (SLP) pattern, characterized by higher SLP at mid-latitudes and lower SLP at high-latitudes. This SLP change diverted the jet stream and storm tracks further northward, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in Northern Europe. The results from this study suggest that future black carbon emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems, and economy in the Mediterranean region.

Recruitment success of different fish stocks in the North Sea in relation to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.

1997-09-01

Long-term data of year class strengths of different commercially harvested fish stocks based on a virtual population analysis (VPA) are available from ICES. The anomalies of these long-term data sets of year class strength are analyzed using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) and are related to climate variability: the anomalies of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern North Sea and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) between the leading eigenmodes is performed. The results suggest that the variability in the fish recruitment of western mackerel and three gadoids, namely North Sea cod, North Sea saithe, and North Sea whiting is highly correlated to the variability of the North Sea SST which is directly influenced by the NAO. For North Sea haddock and herring no meaningful correlation exists to North Sea SST and NAO. The results allow the conclusion that is seems possible to predict long-term changes in the fish recruitment from climate change scenarios for North Sea cod, North Sea saithe and western mackerel. Furthermore, the results indicate the possibility of recruitment failure for North Sea cod, North Sea whiting, and western mackerel in the case of global warming.

Subseasonal climate variability for North Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe; Schimmel, Keith A.

2014-08-01

Subseasonal trends in climate variability for maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin) and precipitation were evaluated for 249 ground-based stations in North Carolina for 1950-2009. The magnitude and significance of the trends at all stations were determined using the non-parametric Theil-Sen Approach (TSA) and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, respectively. The Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was also applied to find the initiation of abrupt trend changes. The lag-1 serial correlation and double mass curve were employed to address the data independency and homogeneity. Using the MK trend test, statistically significant (confidence level ≥ 95% in two-tailed test) decreasing (increasing) trends by 44% (45%) of stations were found in May (June). In general, trends were decreased in Tmax and increased in Tmin data series in subseasonal scale. Using the TSA method, the magnitude of lowest (highest) decreasing (increasing) trend in Tmax is - 0.050 °C/year (+ 0.052 °C/year) in the monthly series for May (March) and for Tmin is - 0.055 °C/year (+ 0.075 °C/year) in February (December). For the precipitation time series using the TSA method, it was found that the highest (lowest) magnitude of 1.00 mm/year (- 1.20 mm/year) is in September (February). The overall trends in precipitation data series were not significant at the 95% confidence level except that 17% of stations were found to have significant (confidence level ≥ 95% in two-tailed test) decreasing trends in February. The statistically significant trend test results were used to develop a spatial distribution of trends: May for Tmax, June for Tmin, and February for precipitation. A correlative analysis of significant temperature and precipitation trend results was examined with respect to large scale circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). A negative NAO index (positive-El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index) was found to be associated with the decreasing precipitation in February during 1960-1980 (2000-2009). The incremental trend in Tmin in the inter-seasonal (April-October) time scale can be associated with the positive NAO index during 1970-2000.

Linking the North Atlantic Oscillation to Rainfall Over Northern Lake Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. C.; Powers, L. A.; Werne, J. P.; Brown, E. T.; Castaneda, I.; Schouten, S.; Sinninghe-Damste, J.

2005-12-01

Piston and multi-cores recovered from the north basin of Lake Malawi in 1998 by the International Decade for the East African Lakes (IDEAL) have provided a rich history of climate variability spanning the past 25,000 years. As we now begin to analyze the cores recovered by the Malawi Drilling Project in early 2005, we are considering the relationships among sedimentary signals of temperature (TEX86), northerly winds associated with a southward excursion of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (per cent biogenic silica), and rainfall (terrigenous mass accumulation rate) in the well dated 1998 cores. A high-resolution record of the past 800 years suggests that rainfall in this region (10 - 12° S, 30 - 35° E) was relatively low during the Little Ice Age, when northerly winds were more prevalent, attributed to a more southerly position of the ITCZ during austral summers. The TEX86 signal of lake (surface?) temperature ranged mostly between 24 and 26°C during this period, with the coldest temperature of about 22°C around AD1680 and the warmest temperature, exceeding 27°C, in the youngest sediment sample. The cooler water temperatures coincide with periods of highest diatom productivity, consistent with the latter being due to relatively intense upwelling associated with the northerly winds. Our observation of low rainfall during periods of more southerly migration of the ITCZ is consistent with the results of McHugh and Rogers (2001), who linked rainfall in southeastern Africa to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During years of weak NAO, equatorial westerly transport of Atlantic moisture across Africa during austral summer is relatively intense, causing high rainfall in the East African Rift between the equator and 16° S. Conversely, when the NAO is positive, rainfall is higher south of 15° S than north of this latitude, which is consistent with a southward migration of the ITCZ. McHugh, M. J. and J. C. Rogers (2001). "North Atlantic Oscillation influence on precipitation variability around the southeast African convergence zone." Journal of Climate 14: 3631-3642.

O3 variability/trends in the troposphere from IASI observations in 2008-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wespes, C.; Hurtmans, D.; Clerbaux, C.; Pierre-Francois, C.

2017-12-01

In this study, we describe the recent changes in the tropospheric ozone (O3) columns (TOCs) measured by the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) onboard the Metop satellites during the first ten years of the IASI operation (2008-2017). The instrument provides a unique dataset of vertically-resolved O3 profiles with a twice daily global coverage and a fairly good vertical resolution allowing us to monitor the year-to-year variability in the troposphere. The retrievals are performed using the FORLI software, a fast radiative transfer model based on the optimal estimation method, set up for near real time and large scale processing of IASI data. We differentiate trend characteristics from the seasonal and non-seasonal O3 variations captured by IASI in the troposphere by applying appropriate annual and seasonal multivariate regression models, which include important geophysical drivers of O3 variation (e.g. quasi biennial oscillations - QBO, El Niño/Southern Oscillation - ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation-NAO) and a linear trend term, on time series of spatially gridded averaged O3. The performances of the regression models (annual vs seasonal) are first investigated. Given the large contribution of the interannual variability, we will then describe the effects of the main contributing O3 proxies (e.g. positive - or negatives - ENSO indexes measured during moderate to intense El Niño - or La Niña - episodes in the tropics) in addition to the adjusted O3 trend patterns. A special focus will be given over the Northern Hemisphere which is characterized by decreasing O3 precursor emissions (mainly over Europe and the US). FORLI O3-CO correlations patterns will also be discussed to evaluate the continental influence on the tropospheric O3 trends.

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Mid-Continent Expressions of Oceanic Teleconnections Evidenced in Red Pine Tree Rings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, S. W.; Wilkins, D. E.; Grissino-Mayer, H. D.; van de Gevel, S.; Weinert, M.

2005-12-01

Two stands of Red Pine ( Pinus resinosa) from Itasca State Park in northcentral Minnesota, U.S.A. were studied as part of the 2004 North American Dendroecological Fieldweek. The goal of the workshop was to evaluate the sensitivity of Pinus resinosa at its western limit to local and regional records of temperature and precipitation as well as fill a gap in the geographic network of tree-ring-climate reconstructions in the interior of North America. An unexpected finding of the research was a strong relationship between radial growth in the trees and the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Niño 3.4 indices, patterns not previously described in tree rings from the western Great Lakes region. Duplicate cores from over thirty trees were measured and crossdated to produce a stand chronology spanning 280 years (1724-2003) with an interseries correlation of 0.52 and a mean sensitivity of 0.23 based on COFECHA output. Raw measurements were standardized using a negative exponential curve to remove growth trends. Biological response functions developed with PRECON reveal that 40% of the variance in the residual chronology is explained by temperature and to a lesser degree precipitation, with warm springs (February-May) and cool summers (July) having the strongest influence on tree growth. Correlations with local station and divisional climate records support the analysis with Pinus resinosa responding most positively to warm February temperatures and cool July temperatures. Warm February-May temperatures reduce the snowpack and make moisture available to the trees in the early growing season while cool July conditions limit evaporation, again increasing moisture availability. Correlation of the Minnesota Pinus resinosa ring-width indices with values of oceanic teleconnections reveal a small but significant (r2 = ~16%, p < 0.05) influence of modes of the NAO and Niño 3.4 on tree ring growth in the upper Midwest. There is an inverse relationship between February NAO and ringwidth and a positive correlation between the Niño 3.4 index in July and August of the previous growing season and radial growth in the current year. The inverse relationship between February NAO and ringwidth is interesting as a positive NAO is generally associated with warmer and wetter winter conditions in the eastern U.S. The position of Itasca State Park may be just north and west of a hinge line between the dominance of cold dry arctic air that persists over central Canada during positive phases of the NAO and the front of warm wet air advecting off of the Atlantic High and into the eastern and central U.S.

Atmospheric mechanisms governing the spatial and temporal variability of phenological phases in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheifinger, Helfried; Menzel, Annette; Koch, Elisabeth; Peter, Christian; Ahas, Rein

2002-11-01

A data set of 17 phenological phases from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Slovenia spanning the time period from 1951 to 1998 has been made available for analysis together with a gridded temperature data set (1° × 1° grid) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index time series. The disturbances of the westerlies constitute the main atmospheric source for the temporal variability of phenological events in Europe. The trend, the standard deviation and the discontinuity of the phenological time series at the end of the 1980s can, to a great extent, be explained by the NAO. A number of factors modulate the influence of the NAO in time and space. The seasonal northward shift of the westerlies overlaps with the sequence of phenological spring phases, thereby gradually reducing its influence on the temporal variability of phenological events with progression of spring (temporal loss of influence). This temporal process is reflected by a pronounced decrease in trend and standard deviation values and common variability with the NAO with increasing year-day. The reduced influence of the NAO with increasing distance from the Atlantic coast is not only apparent in studies based on the data set of the International Phenological Gardens, but also in the data set of this study with a smaller spatial extent (large-scale loss of influence). The common variance between phenological and NAO time series displays a discontinuous drop from the European Atlantic coast towards the Alps. On a local and regional scale, mountainous terrain reduces the influence of the large-scale atmospheric flow from the Atlantic via a proposed decoupling mechanism. Valleys in mountainous terrain have the inclination to harbour temperature inversions over extended periods of time during the cold season, which isolate the valley climate from the large-scale atmospheric flow at higher altitudes. Most phenological stations reside at valley bottoms and are thus largely decoupled in their temporal variability from the influence of the westerly flow regime (local-scale loss of influence). This study corroborates an increasing number of similar investigations that find that vegetation does react in a sensitive way to variations of its atmospheric environment across various temporal and spatial scales.

Seasonal streamflow forecast with machine learning and teleconnection indices in the context non-stationary climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haguma, D.; Leconte, R.

2017-12-01

Spatial and temporal water resources variability are associated with large-scale pressure and circulation anomalies known as teleconnections that influence the pattern of the atmospheric circulation. Teleconnection indices have been used successfully to forecast streamflow in short term. However, in some watersheds, classical methods cannot establish relationships between seasonal streamflow and teleconnection indices because of weak correlation. In this study, machine learning algorithms have been applied for seasonal streamflow forecast using teleconnection indices. Machine learning offers an alternative to classical methods to address the non-linear relationship between streamflow and teleconnection indices the context non-stationary climate. Two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), with teleconnection indices associated with North American climatology, have been used to forecast inflows for one and two leading seasons for the Romaine River and Manicouagan River watersheds, located in Quebec, Canada. The indices are Pacific-North America (PNA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The results showed that the machine learning algorithms have an important predictive power for seasonal streamflow for one and two leading seasons. The RF performed better for training and SVM generally have better results with high predictive capability for testing. The RF which is an ensemble method, allowed to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. The integration of teleconnection indices responds to the seasonal forecast of streamflow in the conditions of the non-stationarity the climate, although the teleconnection indices have a weak correlation with streamflow.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magny, M.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; de Beaulieu, J. L.; Bout-Roumazeilles, V.; Colombaroli, D.; Desprat, S.; Francke, A.; Joannin, S.; Ortu, E.; Peyron, O.; Revel, M.; Sadori, L.; Siani, G.; Sicre, M. A.; Samartin, S.; Simonneau, A.; Tinner, W.; Vannière, B.; Wagner, B.; Zanchetta, G.; Anselmetti, F.; Brugiapaglia, E.; Chapron, E.; Debret, M.; Desmet, M.; Didier, J.; Essallami, L.; Galop, D.; Gilli, A.; Haas, J. N.; Kallel, N.; Millet, L.; Stock, A.; Turon, J. L.; Wirth, S.

2013-09-01

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north-south transect, data collected in the central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300-4500 cal BP to the south and 9000-4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the eastern, but also in the central- and the western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-(North Atlantic Oscillation) type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500-4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease in insolation, with additional key seasonal and interhemispheric changes. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700-7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial timescales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age); and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients). Finally, on the basis of projects using strategically located study sites, there is a need to explore possible influences of other general atmospheric circulation patterns than NAO, such as the East Atlantic-West Russian or North Sea-Caspian patterns, in explaining the apparent complexity of palaeoclimatic (palaeohydrological) Holocene records from the Mediterranean area.

A novel way to detect correlations on multi-time scales, with temporal evolution and for multi-variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Xoplaki, Elena; Zhu, Congwen; Luterbacher, Juerg

2016-06-01

In this paper, two new methods, Temporal evolution of Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDCCA) and Temporal evolution of Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDPCCA), are proposed by generalizing DCCA and DPCCA. Applying TDCCA/TDPCCA, it is possible to study correlations on multi-time scales and over different periods. To illustrate their properties, we used two climatological examples: i) Global Sea Level (GSL) versus North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and ii) Summer Rainfall over Yangtze River (SRYR) versus previous winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find significant correlations between GSL and NAO on time scales of 60 to 140 years, but the correlations are non-significant between 1865-1875. As for SRYR and PDO, significant correlations are found on time scales of 30 to 35 years, but the correlations are more pronounced during the recent 30 years. By combining TDCCA/TDPCCA and DCCA/DPCCA, we proposed a new correlation-detection system, which compared to traditional methods, can objectively show how two time series are related (on which time scale, during which time period). These are important not only for diagnosis of complex system, but also for better designs of prediction models. Therefore, the new methods offer new opportunities for applications in natural sciences, such as ecology, economy, sociology and other research fields.

Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach.

PubMed

Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Alizadeh, Farhad; Adamowski, Jan

2018-08-01

Understanding precipitation on a regional basis is an important component of water resources planning and management. The present study outlines a methodology based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multiscale entropy (CWME), combined with self-organizing map (SOM) and k-means clustering techniques, to measure and analyze the complexity of precipitation. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 at 31 rain gauges across Iran were preprocessed by CWT. The multi-resolution CWT approach segregated the major features of the original precipitation series by unfolding the structure of the time series which was often ambiguous. The entropy concept was then applied to components obtained from CWT to measure dispersion, uncertainty, disorder, and diversification of subcomponents. Based on different validity indices, k-means clustering captured homogenous areas more accurately, and additional analysis was performed based on the outcome of this approach. The 31 rain gauges in this study were clustered into 6 groups, each one having a unique CWME pattern across different time scales. The results of clustering showed that hydrologic similarity (multiscale variation of precipitation) was not based on geographic contiguity. According to the pattern of entropy across the scales, each cluster was assigned an entropy signature that provided an estimation of the entropy pattern of precipitation data in each cluster. Based on the pattern of mean CWME for each cluster, a characteristic signature was assigned, which provided an estimation of the CWME of a cluster across scales of 1-2, 3-8, and 9-13 months relative to other stations. The validity of the homogeneous clusters demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach to regionalize precipitation. Further analysis based on wavelet coherence (WTC) was performed by selecting central rain gauges in each cluster and analyzing against temperature, wind, Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), indeces. The results revealed that all climatic features except NAO influenced precipitation in Iran during the 1960-2010 period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Northern tropical Atlantic climate since late Medieval times from Northern Caribbean coral geochemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilbourne, K. H.; Xu, Y.

2015-12-01

Paleoclimate reconstructions of different global climate modes over the last 1000 years provide the basis for testing the relative roles of forced and unforced variability climate system, which can help us improve projections of future climate change. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has been characterized by a combination of persistent La Niña-like conditions, a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (+NAO), and increased Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The northern tropical Atlantic is sensitive to each of these climate patterns, but not all of them have the same regional fingerprint in the modern northern tropical Atlantic. The relative influence of different processes related to these climate patterns can help us better understand regional responses to climate change. The regional response of the northern tropical Atlantic is important because the tropical Atlantic Ocean is a large source of heat and moisture to the global climate system that can feedback onto global climate patterns. This study presents new coral Sr/Ca and δ18O data from the northern tropical Atlantic (Anegada, British Virgin Islands). Comparison of the sub-fossil corals that grew during the 13th and 14th Centuries with modern coral geochemical data from this site indicates relatively cooler mean conditions with a decrease in the oxygen isotopic composition of the water consistent with lower salinities. Similar average annual cycles between modern and sub-fossil Sr/Ca indicate no change in seasonal temperature range, but a difference in the relative phasing of the δ18O seasonal cycles indicates that the fresher mean conditions may be due to a more northerly position of the regional salinity front. This localized response is consistent with some, but not all of the expected regional responses to a La Niña-like state, a +NAO state, and increased AMOC. Understanding these differences can provide insight into the relative importance of advection versus surface fluxes for heat and salt balances at the study site. Ultimately the data support the existing framework for understanding climate during the MCA and demonstrate the importance of regional processes in understanding historic and future climate patterns.

Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillett, N. P.; Fyfe, J. C.

2013-03-01

We investigate simulated changes in the annular modes in historical and RCP 4.5 scenario simulations of 37 models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), a much larger ensemble of models than has previously been used to investigate annular mode trends, with improved resolution and forcings. The CMIP5 models on average simulate increases in the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in every season by 2100, and no CMIP5 model simulates a significant decrease in either the NAM or SAM in any season. No significant increase in the NAM or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is simulated in response to volcanic aerosol, and no significant NAM or NAO response to solar irradiance variations is simulated. The CMIP5 models simulate a significant negative SAM response to volcanic aerosol in MAM and JJA, and a significant positive SAM response to solar irradiance variations in MAM, JJA and DJF.

On the secular change of spring onset at Stockholm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Cheng; Fu, Congbin; Wu, Zhaohua; Yan, Zhongwei

2009-06-01

A newly developed method, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, was applied to adaptively determine the timing of climatic spring onset from the daily temperature records at Stockholm during 1756-2000. Secular variations of spring onset and its relationships to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to the temperature variability were analyzed. A clear turning point of secular trend in spring onset around 1884/1885, from delaying to advancing, was found. The delaying trend of spring onset (6.9 days/century) during 1757-1884 and the advancing one (-7 days/century) during 1885-1999 were both significant. The winter NAO indices were found to be correlated with the spring onset at Stockholm at an inter-annual timescale only for some decades, but unable to explain the change of the long-term trends. The secular change from cooling to warming around the 1880s, especially in terms of spring temperature, might have led to the secular change of spring onset.

ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-11-01

In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The impact of tropical cyclones on surface chlorophyll concentration is assessed in the western subtropical North Atlantic Ocean during 1998–2011. Previous studies in this area focused on individual cyclones and gave mixed results regarding the importance of tropical cyclone-induced mixing for changes in surface chlorophyll. Using a more integrated and comprehensive approach that includes quantification of cyclone-induced changes in mixed layer depth, here it is shown that accumulated cyclone energy explains 22% of the interannual variability in seasonally-averaged (June–November) chlorophyll concentration in the western subtropical North Atlantic, after removing the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The variance explainedmore » by tropical cyclones is thus about 70% of that explained by the NAO, which has well-known impacts in this region. It is therefore likely that tropical cyclones contribute significantly to interannual variations of primary productivity in the western subtropical North Atlantic during the hurricane season.« less

A volcanic wind-stress origin of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, S. D.; Mayewski, P. A.; Maasch, K. A.; Auger, J.; Lyon, B.

2016-12-01

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic that has significant impact on global climate. Most previous studies ascribe the origin of the AMO to oceanic mechanisms, and suggest only a limited role for the atmosphere. Here, we suggest that the AMO is manifested from basin-wide changes in surface wind stress that arise in response to episodic volcanic activity. Our interpretation is based on historical SST, reanalysis, and stratospheric aerosol optical thickness data, wherein it is evident that cool (warm) intervals of the AMO coincide with emergence of strong (weak) winds and high (low) volcanic activity. We find that SST excursions ultimately develop from atmospheric forcing as volcanic events project onto the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A volcanic signature is particularly evident beneath the westerlies in the subpolar region south of Greenland, where several large SST excursions occur coincident with identifiable major eruptions. High latitude surface waters cool when NAO+ circulation, which includes a deepened Icelandic Low, draws cold flow out of the Labrador Sea and into the subpolar region. Important feedbacks that cause SST anomalies to spread across the basin include cloud cover, wind-driven upwelling, and entrainment of Saharan dust into the tropical easterlies. Finally, we speculate that cooling in the North Atlantic observed since 2011 could be linked to renewed volcanic activity over Iceland, namely from the eruptions of Grímsvötn (2011) and Bárðarbunga (2014). An important question remains how North Atlantic SST variability will evolve as atmospheric circulation becomes increasingly modified by human activity.

Impact of climate variability on various Rabi crops over Northwest India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nageswararao, M. M.; Dhekale, B. S.; Mohanty, U. C.

2018-01-01

The Indian agriculture with its two prominent cropping seasons [summer ( Kharif) and winter ( Rabi)] is the mainstay of the rural economy. Northwest India (NWI) is an important region for the cultivation of Rabi crops grown during the period from October to April. In the present study, state wise impact analysis is carried out to ascertain the influence of climate indices Nino3.4 region Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local precipitation, soil moisture, minimum ( T min), maximum ( T max) and mean ( T mean) temperatures on different Rabi crops (wheat, gram, rapeseed-mustard, oilseeds, and total Rabi food grains) over NWI during the years 1966-2011. To study the impact of climate variability on different Rabi crops, firstly, the influence of technology on the productivity of these crops has been removed by using linear function, as linear trend has noticed in all the time series. Correlation analysis provides an indication of the influence of local precipitation, soil moisture, T min, T max and T mean and some of its potential predictors (Nino3.4 region SST, SOI, AO, and NAO) on the productivity of different Rabi crops. Overall impact analysis indicates that the productivity of different Rabi crops in most of the places of NWI is most likely influenced by variability in local temperatures. Moreover, Nino3.4 region SST (SOI) positively (negatively) affects the productivity of gram, rapeseed-mustard, and total Rabi oilseeds in most of the states. The results of this study are useful in determining the strategies for increasing sustainable production through better agronomic practices.

Breakdown of NAO reproducibility into internal versus externally-forced components: a two-tier pilot study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douville, Hervé; Ribes, A.; Tyteca, S.

2018-03-01

Assessing the ability of atmospheric models to capture observed climate variations when driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice concentration (SIC) and radiative forcings is a prerequisite for the feasibility of near term climate predictions. Here we achieve ensembles of global atmospheric simulations to assess and attribute the reproducibility of the boreal winter atmospheric circulation against the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA20C). Our control experiment is driven by the observed SST/SIC from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. It is compared to a similar ensemble performed with the ECMWF model as a first step toward ERA20C. Moreover, a two-tier methodology is used to disentangle externally-forced versus internal variations in the observed SST/SIC boundary conditions and run additional ensembles allowing us to attribute the observed atmospheric variability. The focus is mainly on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability which is more reproducible in our model than in the ECMWF model. This result is partly due to the simulation of a positive NAO trend across the full 1920-2014 integration period. In line with former studies, this trend might be mediated by a circumglobal teleconnection mechanism triggered by increasing precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Surprisingly, this response is mainly related to the internal SST variability and is not found in the ECMWF model driven by an alternative SST dataset showing a weaker TIO warming in the first half of the twentieth century. Our results may reconcile the twentieth century observations with the twenty-first century projections of the NAO. They should be however considered with caution given the limited size of our ensembles, the possible influence of other sources of NAO variability, and the uncertainties in the tropical SST trend and breakdown between internal versus externally-forced variability.

Importance of climatological downscaling and plant phenology for red deer in heterogeneous landscapes

PubMed Central

Pettorelli, Nathalie; Mysterud, Atle; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Langvatn, Rolf; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-01-01

Understanding how climate influences ecosystems represents a challenge in ecology and natural resource management. Although we know that climate affects plant phenology and herbivore performances at any single site, no study has directly coupled the topography–climate interaction (i.e. the climatological downscaling process) with large-scale vegetation dynamics and animal performances. Here we show how climatic variability (measured by the North Atlantic oscillation ‘NAO’) interacts with local topography in determining the vegetative greenness (as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index ‘NDVI’) and the body masses and seasonal movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Norway. Warm springs induced an earlier onset of vegetation, resulting in earlier migration and higher body masses. Increasing values of the winter-NAO corresponded to less snow at low altitude (warmer, more precipitation results in more rain), but more snow at high altitude (colder, more precipitation corresponds to more snow) relative to winters with low winter-NAO. An increasing NAO thus results in a spatially more variable phenology, offering migrating deer an extended period with access to high-quality forage leading to increased body mass. Our results emphasize the importance of incorporating spring as well as the interaction between winter climate and topography when aiming at understanding how plant and animal respond to climate change. PMID:16243701

Capturing the Stratosphere’s Influence on Seasonal and Intraseasonal Predictability in a State-of-the-Art Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – one of the most prominent modes of intraseasonal tropospheric variability extending from the subtropical Atlantic to the...and dominant physical coupling pathways governing the stratosphere- troposphere interaction that are most relevant for atmospheric prediction on time...following recommendations of WCRP (2008) and NAS (2010) to address knowledge gaps in our current understanding of coupled troposphere -stratosphere

Post-1980 shifts in the sensitivity of boreal tree growth to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics and seasonal climate. Tree growth responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ols, Clémentine; Trouet, Valerie; Girardin, Martin P.; Hofgaard, Annika; Bergeron, Yves; Drobyshev, Igor

2018-06-01

The mid-20th century changes in North Atlantic Ocean dynamics, e.g. slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning thermohaline circulation (AMOC), have been considered as early signs of tipping points in the Earth climate system. We hypothesized that these changes have significantly altered boreal forest growth dynamics in northeastern North America (NA) and northern Europe (NE), two areas geographically adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. To test our hypothesis, we investigated tree growth responses to seasonal large-scale oceanic and atmospheric indices (the AMOC, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO)) and climate (temperature and precipitation) from 1950 onwards, both at the regional and local levels. We developed a network of 6876 black spruce (NA) and 14437 Norway spruce (NE) tree-ring width series, extracted from forest inventory databases. Analyses revealed post-1980 shifts from insignificant to significant tree growth responses to summer oceanic and atmospheric dynamics both in NA (negative responses to NAO and AO indices) and NE (positive response to NAO and AMOC indices). The strength and sign of these responses varied, however, through space with stronger responses in western and central boreal Quebec and in central and northern boreal Sweden, and across scales with stronger responses at the regional level than at the local level. Emerging post-1980 associations with North Atlantic Ocean dynamics synchronized with stronger tree growth responses to local seasonal climate, particularly to winter temperatures. Our results suggest that ongoing and future anomalies in oceanic and atmospheric dynamics may impact forest growth and carbon sequestration to a greater extent than previously thought. Cross-scale differences in responses to North Atlantic Ocean dynamics highlight complex interplays in the effects of local climate and ocean-atmosphere dynamics on tree growth processes and advocate for the use of different spatial scales in climate-growth research to better understand factors controlling tree growth.

Broad-scale climate influences on spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus, L.) recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Gröger, Joachim P; Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald; Polte, Patrick

2014-01-01

Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring). To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models) allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management strategies as part of the EU ecosystem approach to support sustainable herring fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea.

Urban NO 2 and NO pollution in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundström, M.; Linderholm, H. W.; Klingberg, J.; Pleijel, H.

2011-02-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a measure of the strength of the zonal wind across the North Atlantic Ocean, strongly influences weather conditions in NW Europe, e.g. temperature, precipitation and wind, especially during winter. It was hypothesised that elevated concentrations of nitrogen oxides in Gothenburg would be enhanced during negative NAO index (NAOI) conditions, representing more anticyclonic weather situations and thus leading to limited air mixing in the urban atmosphere, than situations with NAOI > 0. Hourly wintertime (December-February) concentrations (1997-2006) of NO 2, NO, air pressure, temperature and wind direction from an urban rooftop (30 m above street level) in the centre of the City of Gothenburg were analysed in relation to NAOI. Air pressure, the average concentration of nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO 2 + NO), as well as the fraction of hourly NO 2 and NO concentrations exceeding 90 μg m -3 and the fraction of daily NO concentrations exceeding 60 μg m -3, were significantly and negatively related to NAOI. Air temperature was positively correlated with NAOI. Southerly and westerly winds were more common in months with positive NAOI, while easterly and northerly winds were overrepresented in months with negative NAOI. High pollution concentrations dominantly occurred in situations with northerly and easterly wind directions. High NO 2 and NO concentrations were associated with negative NAOI, especially in the morning when the traffic rush coincided with restricted air mixing. Over the ten-year period there were trends for more negative NAOI and increased time fractions with hourly NO 2 concentrations exceeding 90 μg m -3. The conclusion of this study is that a climate shift towards higher or lower NAOI has the potential to significantly influence urban air pollution in North-West Europe, and thus the possibility to reach air quality standards, even if emissions remain constant.

Broad-Scale Climate Influences on Spring-Spawning Herring (Clupea harengus, L.) Recruitment in the Western Baltic Sea

PubMed Central

Gröger, Joachim P.; Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald; Polte, Patrick

2014-01-01

Climate forcing in complex ecosystems can have profound implications for ecosystem sustainability and may thus challenge a precautionary ecosystem management. Climatic influences documented to affect various ecological functions on a global scale, may themselves be observed on quantitative or qualitative scales including regime shifts in complex marine ecosystems. This study investigates the potential climatic impact on the reproduction success of spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea (WBSS herring). To test for climate effects on reproduction success, the regionally determined and scientifically well-documented spawning grounds of WBSS herring represent an ideal model system. Climate effects on herring reproduction were investigated using two global indices of atmospheric variability and sea surface temperature, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively, and the Baltic Sea Index (BSI) which is a regional-scale atmospheric index for the Baltic Sea. Moreover, we combined a traditional approach with modern time series analysis based on a recruitment model connecting parental population components with reproduction success. Generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX models) allowed evaluating the dynamic nature of exogenous climate processes interacting with the endogenous recruitment process. Using different model selection criteria our results reveal that in contrast to NAO and AMO, the BSI shows a significant positive but delayed signal on the annual dynamics of herring recruitment. The westward influence of the Siberian high is considered strongly suppressing the influence of the NAO in this area leading to a higher explanatory power of the BSI reflecting the atmospheric pressure regime on a North-South transect between Oslo, Norway and Szczecin, Poland. We suggest incorporating climate-induced effects into stock and risk assessments and management strategies as part of the EU ecosystem approach to support sustainable herring fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea. PMID:24586279

Late Holocene Hydroclimate Variability of West-Central Guatemala Driven by NAO and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stansell, N.; Feller, J. R.; Steinman, B. A.; Lachniet, M. S.; Shea, C.; Avendaño, C.

2016-12-01

Finely-laminated sediments from Lake San Francisco in the Huehuetenango province of west-central Guatemala provide a sub-decadal resolution record of hydroclimate variability spanning the last 5200 years. Age control is based on 7 radiocarbon samples of charcoal and lead-210 dating of surface sediments. Modern water isotope samples indicate the lake is currently an open system, and variations of δ18O values of precipitation in the region are driven largely by the amount effect. In contrast, a strong covariance of δ18O and δ13C values combined with pollen evidence in the lower part of the record suggests the lake was a seasonally closed-basin from 5200 to 3200 BP, and was sensitive to evaporation under more arid conditions. There was an overall trend of increasingly wetter conditions during the late Holocene, and a lack of covariance between δ18O and δ13C indicates that the lake transitioned to an open-basin after 3200 BP. The Medieval Climate Anomaly was the wettest period of the late Holocene, and there was a shift to lower precipitation amounts during the Little Ice Age. Present conditions are more arid than most of the last millennium, but δ18O values in the modern sediments are intermediate compared to the full late Holocene. The Lake San Francisco record provides additional evidence that the hydroclimate of Central America is sensitive to both changes in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier conditions at San Francisco over the length of the record were associated with more negative phases of NAO and vice versa. During the last 1500 years, drier conditions at San Francisco were also associated with warmer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3 region, and it was wetter when SSTs were colder.

The subpolar North Atlantic - Response to North Atlantic oscillation like forcing and Influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, Katja; Drange, Helge; Jungclaus, Johann

2010-05-01

The extent and strength of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) changed rapidly in the mid-1990s, going from large and strong in 1995 to substantially weakened in the following years. The abrupt change in the intensity of the SPG is commonly linked to the reversal of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, changing from strong positive to negative values, in the winter 1995/96. In this study we investigate the impact of the initial SPG state on its subsequent behavior by means of an ocean general circulation model driven by NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fields. Our sensitivity integrations suggest that the weakening of the SPG cannot be explained by the change in the atmospheric forcing alone. Rather, for the time period around 1995, the SPG was about to weaken, irrespective of the actual atmospheric forcing, due to the ocean state governed by the persistently strong positive NAO during the preceding seven years (1989 to 1995). Our analysis indicates that it was this preconditioning of the ocean, in combination with the sudden drop in the NAO in 1995/96, that lead to the strong and rapid weakening of the SPG in the second half of the 1990s. In the second part, the sensitivity of the low-frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to changes in the subpolar North Atlantic is investigated using a 2000 year long control integration as well as sensitivity experiments with the MPI-M Earth System Model. Two 1000 year long sensitivity experiments will be performed, in which the low-frequency variability in the overflow transports from the Nordic Seas and in the subpolar deep water formation rates is suppressed respectively. This is achieved by nudging temperature and salinity in the GIN Sea or in the subpolar North Atlantic (up to about 1500m depth) towards a monthly climatology obtained from the last 1000 years of the control integration.

A statistical model for Windstorm Variability over the British Isles based on Large-scale Atmospheric and Oceanic Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner-Bossi, Nicolas; Befort, Daniel J.; Wild, Simon B.; Ulbrich, Uwe; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Time-clustered winter storms are responsible for a majority of the wind-induced losses in Europe. Over last years, different atmospheric and oceanic large-scale mechanisms as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) have been proven to drive some significant portion of the windstorm variability over Europe. In this work we systematically investigate the influence of different large-scale natural variability modes: more than 20 indices related to those mechanisms with proven or potential influence on the windstorm frequency variability over Europe - mostly SST- or pressure-based - are derived by means of ECMWF ERA-20C reanalysis during the last century (1902-2009), and compared to the windstorm variability for the European winter (DJF). Windstorms are defined and tracked as in Leckebusch et al. (2008). The derived indices are then employed to develop a statistical procedure including a stepwise Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), aiming to hindcast the inter-annual (DJF) regional windstorm frequency variability in a case study for the British Isles. This case study reveals 13 indices with a statistically significant coupling with seasonal windstorm counts. The Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) showed the strongest correlation (0.61), followed by the NAO (0.48) and the Polar/Eurasia Pattern (0.46). The obtained indices (standard-normalised) are selected as predictors for a windstorm variability hindcast model applied for the British Isles. First, a stepwise linear regression is performed, to identify which mechanisms can explain windstorm variability best. Finally, the indices retained by the stepwise regression are used to develop a multlayer perceptron-based ANN that hindcasted seasonal windstorm frequency and clustering. Eight indices (SCA, NAO, EA, PDO, W.NAtl.SST, AMO (unsmoothed), EA/WR and Trop.N.Atl SST) are retained by the stepwise regression. Among them, SCA showed the highest linear coefficient, followed by SST in western Atlantic, AMO and NAO. The explanatory regression model (considering all time steps) provided a Coefficient of Determination (R^2) of 0.75. A predictive version of the linear model applying a leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) shows an R2 of 0.56 and a relative RMSE of 4.67 counts/season. An ANN-based nonlinear hindcast model for the seasonal windstorm frequency is developed with the aim to improve the stepwise hindcast ability and thus better predict a time-clustered season over the case study. A 7 node-hidden layer perceptron is set, and the LOOCV procedure reveals a R2 of 0.71. In comparison to the stepwise MLR the RMSE is reduced a 20%. This work shows that for the British Isles case study, most of the interannual variability can be explained by certain large-scale mechanisms, considering also nonlinear effects (ANN). This allows to discern a time-clustered season from a non-clustered one - a key issue for applications e.g., in the (re)insurance industry.

Slow walking model for children with multiple disabilities via an application of humanoid robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, ZeFeng; Peyrodie, Laurent; Cao, Hua; Agnani, Olivier; Watelain, Eric; Wang, HaoPing

2016-02-01

Walk training research with children having multiple disabilities is presented. Orthosis aid in walking for children with multiple disabilities such as Cerebral Palsy continues to be a clinical and technological challenge. In order to reduce pain and improve treatment strategies, an intermediate structure - humanoid robot NAO - is proposed as an assay platform to study walking training models, to be transferred to future special exoskeletons for children. A suitable and stable walking model is proposed for walk training. It would be simulated and tested on NAO. This comparative study of zero moment point (ZMP) supports polygons and energy consumption validates the model as more stable than the conventional NAO. Accordingly direction variation of the center of mass and the slopes of linear regression knee/ankle angles, the Slow Walk model faithfully emulates the gait pattern of children.

Interannual variability in the gravity wave drag - vertical coupling and possible climate links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šácha, Petr; Miksovsky, Jiri; Pisoft, Petr

2018-05-01

Gravity wave drag (GWD) is an important driver of the middle atmospheric dynamics. However, there are almost no observational constraints on its strength and distribution (especially horizontal). In this study we analyze orographic GWD (OGWD) output from Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulation with specified dynamics (CMAM-sd) to illustrate the interannual variability in the OGWD distribution at particular pressure levels in the stratosphere and its relation to major climate oscillations. We have found significant changes in the OGWD distribution and strength depending on the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The OGWD variability is shown to be induced by lower-tropospheric wind variations to a large extent, and there is also significant variability detected in near-surface momentum fluxes. We argue that the orographic gravity waves (OGWs) and gravity waves (GWs) in general can be a quick mediator of the tropospheric variability into the stratosphere as the modifications of the OGWD distribution can result in different impacts on the stratospheric dynamics during different phases of the studied climate oscillations.

Role of large-scale atmospheric processes in variability of droughts in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khokhlov, Valeriy; Yermolenko, Nataliia

2015-04-01

We used the multiscalar drought index - standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) - to investigate the variability of droughts during the period of 1951-2010. The index allows considering the meteorological, agriculture and hydrological droughts. In this study, SPEI was calculated using the 0.5 degree grid data on the temperature and precipitation. The analysis was performed for the time series of four sites that are characteristic for the different parts of Ukraine - Chernihiv (Northern Ukraine), Odessa (Southern Ukraine), Uzhhorod (Western Ukraine), and Luhansk (Eastern Ukraine). The analysis revealed the periods with moistest and driest conditions. For the all sites, the moistest years were registered in the end of 1970s - start of 1980s. Moreover, both the number and intensity of droughts increase significantly since 1980, especially for the Southern Ukraine. During the 2006-2009, the most extreme and long drought was observed in the Odessa region. The analysis also showed that hydrological droughts begin with some delay from the meteorological ones, and have maximal duration. We used CUSUM method in order to detect specific years, when the significant change points occurred in the time series of droughts. This method also detected the start of 1980s as the years of transition from the moist to the dry conditions. The cross-wavelet transform was applied to reveal a connection between the droughts in Ukraine and teleconnection patterns in the North Atlantics. The analysis showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a maximal effect on the droughts in Ukraine. The anti-phase relation is registered for the joint fluctuations with the periods 2-3 years and is most prominent in the Southern Ukraine. On the contrary, the NAO has a small impact on the Northern Ukraine. This fact can be explained by the orientation of main storm tracks for positive and negative phases of the NAO. The importance of long term planning of water management activities, varying from yearly reservoir rule curve determination to advice on crop selection given expected drought or flooding, increases as water becomes more scarce and event become more extreme. This work examines potential predictors for droughts in Ukriane to be used in optimization of long term planning.

Changes in deep-sea fish and crustacean communities at 1000-2200 m in the Western Mediterranean after 25 years: Relation to hydro-climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartes, J. E.; Maynou, F.; Fanelli, E.; López-Pérez, C.; Papiol, V.

2015-03-01

Long-term changes in the biomass, diversity and composition of deep-living fish and decapods from the Balearic Basin (western Mediterranean) have been compared between two periods, 1985-1992 vs. 2007-2012, based on 106 bottom trawls performed at 1000-2250 m. Relationships have been identified between the changes in community composition and the hydroclimatic conditions (e.g. NAO, temperature, salinity and dissolved O2) of the area. We found a generalized deepening of middle-slope communities (950-1250 m), especially among decapods, which is suggested (from GLM results) to have been a response to the long-term increase in salinity of the Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW), located above the level sampled to ca. 700 m. Even more pronounced was the shallowing of all of the lower slope species (1600-2250 m), accompanied by a significant decrease of biomass from 1985-1992 to 2007-2012. This last tendency would be done to a combination of factors: long-term decrease of O2 in the bottom-boundary layer, greater degradation of POM arriving on the bottom due to temperature increase in the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters (WMDW) and probably a decrease of Chl a at the surface and, thus, of production. The influence of climatic oscillations (NAO) on differences found between 1985-1992 and 2007-2012 seems secondary, likely because the NAO did not show significant differences between the two periods. Some plankton-feeding species showed an increase of density during high/positive NAO (e.g. Alepocephalus rostratus), while some benthos feeders increased during low/negative NAO (e.g. Aristeus antennatus, mainly juveniles). The increase of rainfall and advective fluxes under low/negative NAO (i.e., in 2007-2012) may increase the formation of the nepheloid layer identified over 1200-1400 m in the area (Cartes et al., 2013a), linked to zooplankton aggregation in that depth range. Greater food availability could explain the generalized migration by both middle and lower slope species toward these intermediate depths that acquired greater trophic resources. Deep-sea Mediterranean fish and invertebrates, including important commercial species, seemed to undergo long-term changes in its distribution and biomass due to changes in hydro-climatic conditions, mainly a decrease of O2 in the bottom-boundary layer.

Latest Holocene Climate Variability revealed by a high-resolution multiple Proxy Record off Lisbon (Portugal)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrantes, F.; Lebreiro, S.; Ferreira, A.; Gil, I.; Jonsdottir, H.; Rodrigues, T.; Kissel, C.; Grimalt, J.

2003-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is known to have a major influence on the wintertime climate of the Atlantic basin and surrounding countries, determining precipitation and wind conditions at mid-latitudes. A comparison of Hurrel's NAO index to the mean winter (January-March) discharge of the Iberian Tagus River reveals a good negative correlation to negative NAO, while the years of largest upwelling anomalies, as referred in the literature, appear to be in good agreement with positive NAO. On this basis, a better understanding of the long-term variability of the NAO and Atlantic climate variability can be gained from high-resolution climate records from the Lisbon area. Climate variability of the last 2,000 years is assessed through a multiple proxy study of sedimentary sequences recovered from the Tagus prodelta deposition center, off Lisbon (Western Iberia). Physical properties, XRF and magnetic properties from core logging, grain size, δ18O, TOC, CaCO3, total alkenones, n-alkanes, alkenone SST, diatoms, benthic and planktonic foraminiferal assemblage compositions and fluxes are the proxies employed. The age model for site D13902 is based on AMS C-14 dates from mollusc and planktonic foraminifera shells, the reservoir correction for which was obtained by dating 3 pre-bomb, mollusc shells from the study area. Preliminary results indicate a Little Ice Age (LIA - 1300 - 1600 AD) alkenone derived SSTs around 15 degC followed by a sharp and rapid increase towards 19 degC. In spite the strong variability observed for most records, this low temperature interval is marked by a general increase in organic carbon, total alkenone concentration, diatom and foraminiferal abundances, as well as an increase in the sediment fine fraction and XRF determined Fe content, pointing to important river input and higher productivity. The Medieval Warm Period (1080 - 1300 AD) is characterized by 17-18 degC SSTs, increased mean grain size, but lower magnetic susceptibility and Fe contents, also accompanied by low values for total alkenone, n-alkanes and organic carbon concentration as well as low diatom abundance which may reflect decreased runoff and productivity. Major peaks in magnetic susceptibility and grain size occur at both periods and are interpreted as the record of flood-like events that are likely to reflect times of primarily negative NAO.

The influence of the North-Atlantic Oscillation on Variable Renewable Energy penetration rate in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste

2016-04-01

The on-going transition to low-carbon economy promotes the development of Variable Renewable Energies (VRE) such as wind-power, solar-power and hydro-power. The European Climate Foundation now typically dates for 2050 optimistic scenarios with close to 100 % renewable energy in Europe. When considering 100 % renewable scenarios, backup generation is needed for stabilizing the network when variable renewable energy sources such as wind, solar or run-of-the river hydropower are not sufficient for supplying the load. Several studies show that backup generation needs are reduced by dissipating power densities either in space through grids and time through storage. To our knowledge, most of these published studies were carried out using field measurements collected at meteorological and hydrological stations and over relatively short time period (less than 10 years). By using short period of times, such studies somehow disregarded the space and temporal variability of VRE power generation that could be induced by larger-scale climate variability patterns. This study investigates the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the VRE penetration for a set of 11 regions in Europe and Tunisia, and over 1980-2012 time period. These regions are located along two climate transects, the first one going from the Northern regions (Norway, Finland) to the Southern ones (Greece, Andalucía, Tunisia) and the second one going from the oceanic climate (West of France, Galicia) to the continental one (Romania, Belorussia). For each of those regions, we combine data from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (wind speed, solar radiation; Vautard et al., 2014) and the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (temperature, precipitation; Haylock et al,. 2008) for estimating solar-power, wind-power, run-of-the-river hydro-power and the electricity demand over a time period of 33 years. For each region, we analyze seasonal differences in penetration rates of wind-, solar- and hydro-power and between positive and negative phases of the NAO index. We then discuss about opportunities of combining different VRE within the same region and among neighbor regions for limiting backup generation needs during both positive and negative NAO phases. References: Vautard, R., Thais, F., Tobin, I., Bréon, F.-M., de Lavergne, J.-G.D., Colette, A., Yiou, P., and Ruti, P.M. (2014).Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms. Nat. Commun. 5, 3196. Haylock, M.R., Hofstra, N., Tank, A.M.G.K., Klok, E.J., Jones, P.D., New, M., 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 113. doi:10.1029/2008JD010201

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

2011-12-01

With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by predefine climate modes and the proposed SVM modeling technique incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations is expected to be useful to water managers in the long-term management of the water resources within the UCRB.

The Response of African Land Surface Phenology to Large Scale Climate Oscillations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; de Beurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

2010-01-01

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the African continent. Analysis of changes in phenology can provide quantitative information on the effect of climate variability on growing seasons in agricultural regions. Using a robust statistical methodology, we describe the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). We map the most significant positive and negative correlation for the four climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa between two phenological metrics and the climate indices. Our objective is to provide evidence of whether climate variability captured in the four indices has had a significant impact on the vegetative productivity of Africa during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by large scale variations in climate. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. In Western Africa the cumulative NDVI correlates with PDO in September-November. In Eastern Africa the start of the June-October season strongly correlates with PDO in March-May, while the PDO in December-February correlates with the start of the February-June season. The cumulative NDVI over this last season relates to the MEI of March-May. For Southern Africa, high correlations exist between SOS and NAO of September-November, and cumulative NDVI and MEI of March-May. The research shows that climate indices can be used to anticipate late start and variable vigor in the growing season of sensitive agricultural regions in Africa.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Regional and temporal changes in epizoobiontic bryozoan-communities of Flustra foliacea (Linnaeus, 1758) and implications for North Sea ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitschofsky, F.; Forster, S.; Scholz, J.

2011-02-01

Until recently, bryozoans have not been used as indicators for changes in bottom communities or climate control in the North Sea Basin, despite a 200-year history of bryozoan collecting. The epizoobiontic bryozoan fauna of Flustra foliacea (Linnaeus, 1758) was analysed on 51 sample stations kept in four German museums. The samples cover the entire North Sea and different time periods (1776-2008, mainly the period of 1904/1905 compared to 1980-87). Cluster analysis shows a differentiation into a northern and a southern North Sea assemblage. The northern assemblage is characterized by Amphiblestrum flemingii (Busk, 1854), Callopora dumerilii (Audouin, 1826) and Tricellaria ternata (Ellis & Solander, 1786), while the southern North Sea is characterized by Electra pilosa (Linnaeus, 1767), Crisia eburnea (Linnaeus, 1758) and Plagioecia patina (Lamarck, 1816). Spatial separation approximately follows the 50 m depth contour. The temporal distribution patterns of bryozoans are discussed in terms of NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and temperature variations.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Variability of the Labrador Sea Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy Observed by Altimeter From 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

A merged along track altimeter data set is used to study the variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea from 1993 to 2012. The EKE near the west Greenland current (WGC) has strong interannual variability without long-term trend from 1993 to 2012. The propagation direction of the Irminger Rings (IRs) originating from the WGC can be inferred from the EKE derived from altimeter, and the southward propagation of the IRs varies interannually. The central Labrador Sea EKE increases significantly from 1993 to 2012. The central Labrador Sea temperature difference between the end and the beginning of the winter convections is defined as restratification index to measure the restratification strengths. The relation between the central Labrador Sea EKE and the restratification index shows that the enhanced eddy activity originating from the west of the central Labrador Sea may cool the central Labrador Sea significantly. The interannual variability of the WGC EKE is likely to be driven by the large scale Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO also affects the central Labrador Sea EKE through its fingerprint in the local wind stress and surface heat flux. The NAO affects the WGC EKE by changing the SPG circulation strength, which will subsequently affect the WGC EKE through unknown physical processes.

On the unseasonal flooding over the Central United States during December 2015 and January 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele

2017-11-01

The unseasonal winter heavy rainfall and flooding that occurred during December 2015-January 2016 had large socio-economic impacts for the central United States. Here we examine the climatic conditions that led to the observed extreme precipitation, and compare and contrast them with the 1982/1983 and 2011/2012 winters. The large precipitation amounts associated with the 1982/1983 and 2015/2016 winter flooding were linked to the strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with large moisture transported from the Gulf of Mexico. The anomalous upper-level trough in the 1982- and 2015- Decembers over the western United States was also favorable for strong precipitation by leading the cold front over the central United States. In contrast, the extremely positive NAO in December 2011 did not lead to heavy rainfall and flooding because the Azores High center shifted too far westward (like a blocking high) preventing moisture from moving towards the central and southeastern United States.

Airborne pollen trends in the Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

Galán, C; Alcázar, P; Oteros, J; García-Mozo, H; Aira, M J; Belmonte, J; Diaz de la Guardia, C; Fernández-González, D; Gutierrez-Bustillo, M; Moreno-Grau, S; Pérez-Badía, R; Rodríguez-Rajo, J; Ruiz-Valenzuela, L; Tormo, R; Trigo, M M; Domínguez-Vilches, E

2016-04-15

Airborne pollen monitoring is an effective tool for studying the reproductive phenology of anemophilous plants, an important bioindicator of plant behavior. Recent decades have revealed a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations in Europe, attributing these trends to an increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions and temperature. However, the lack of water availability in southern Europe may prompt a trend towards lower flowering intensity, especially in herbaceous plants. Here we show variations in flowering intensity by analyzing the Annual Pollen Index (API) of 12 anemophilous taxa across 12 locations in the Iberian Peninsula, over the last two decades, and detecting the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results revealed differences in the distribution and flowering intensity of anemophilous species. A negative correlation was observed between airborne pollen concentrations and winter averages of the NAO index. This study confirms that changes in rainfall in the Mediterranean region, attributed to climate change, have an important impact on the phenology of plants. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atlantic and Pacific Influences on Mesoamerican Climate Over the Past Millennium (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stahle, D. W.; Burnette, D. J.; Villanueva, J.; Cleaveland, M. K.

2010-12-01

Montezuma baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) trees in Queretaro have been used to develop the first exactly dated millennium-long tree-ring chronology in central Mexico. The chronology is sensitive to both precipitation and temperature, and has been used to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for June from AD 771-2008 for a large sector of Mesoamerica (most of central and southern Mexico). Fourier-transform spectral analyses of the 1,238-year long reconstruction indicate strong concentrations of variance at frequencies associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO; representing over 14% of the total reconstructed variance between periods of 4.5 and 5.5 years), and at multi-decadal frequencies potentially associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; representing over 10% of the total variance between periods of 50 and 75 years). Weaker but statistically significant concentrations of variance are also detected with the Multi-Taper Method of spectral analysis at subdecadal timescales potentially linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; 7.5 years) and at timescales possibly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (~33 years). The reconstruction is significantly correlated with sea surface temperatures (SST) in the ENSO cold tongue region from 1871-2008 (during the boreal cool season, DJFM), and this SST correlation strengthens in the 20th Century (1931-2008). Summer drought tends to develop over central Mexico during El Nino events, and the record warm events observed in 1983 and 1998 were associated with the two most extremely dry June PDSI conditions in the past 1,238 years (reconstructed ranks 1 and 2 for 1983 and 1998, respectively). The reconstruction is also significantly correlated with SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic, and is coherent with long instrument-based indices of the NAO at periods near 7.5 years, but only during the 20th century. The June PDSI reconstruction is coherent (P<0.05) with a 600-year long tree-ring reconstruction of the NAO at multidecadal timescales (50 to 70-years) during a 200-year episode in the 16th and 17th centuries. The reconstruction indicates more severe and sustained droughts over Mesoamerica before AD 1600, as has been reconstructed previously for western North America. The existence and timing of the Terminal Classic Drought at AD 900 is confirmed with the new reconstruction, which also documents megadroughts during the decline of the Toltec state at Tula and during the rise and fall of the Aztec imperial state in the Valley of Mexico. The long June PDSI reconstruction provides an interesting new paleoclimate framework for the analysis of Mesoamerican climate dynamics and cultural change.

Revisiting Caveiro Lake sediment record: the Holocene NAO and AMO impact on Pico Island (Azores archipelago)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Giralt, S.; Raposeiro, P. M.; Gonçalves, V. M.; Pueyo, J. J.; Trigo, R. M.; Bao, R.; Sáez, A.

2017-12-01

Northern Hemisphere climate is partly conditioned by a number of atmospheric and oceanic patterns which occur in the North Atlantic sector. The favourable location of the Azores Archipelago (37°-40° N, 25°-31° W) results in a privileged place to generate high-resolution Holocene climatic proxy data that can contribute to deep our understanding on the evolution of these atmospheric and oceanic patterns. In the frame of three research projects, namely PALEONAO (CGL2010-15767), RAPIDNAO (CGL2013-40608-R) and PALEOMODES (CGL2016-75281-C2), high-resolution proxy-based reconstructions from Azores Archipelago have recently shown a combined impact of atmospheric and oceanic patterns at multiannual and decadal time-scales (Rubio-Inglés et al. 2016; Hernández et al. 2017). However, the long-term evolution coupling/uncoupling of these patterns is not well-determined yet. Here, we present a new high-resolution climate reconstruction based on the Caveiro Lake sedimentary sequence in order to fill this gap. Previously, Björck et al. (2006) studied a section of this sequence (the uppermost 4.6 m covering last 6 Ka cal BP) concluding that changes in the thermohaline circulation and the SST were the main drivers in the long-term precipitation variability, whereas the NAO impact was the main atmospheric driver of short-term precipitation changes. However, they only distinguished the NAO impact for the last 600 years owing to the low resolution of the study for the lower portion of the core. The new studied sequence (8.40 m long, 8.2 Ka cal BP) has been analysed at decadal-to centennial time-scale resolution for X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter. The statistical multivariate analysis of the data highlights the main drivers triggering the sedimentary infill of the lake would be the NAO and AMO by controlling the lacustrine productivity via nutrients input. This new high-resolution climate reconstruction from Caveiro Lake disentangles the combined influences of the NAO and AMO through the Holocene at decadal-to-centennial time scales. References Björck et al. (2006) - Quat Sci Rev 25, 9-32. Rubio-Inglés et al. (2016) - AGU fall meeting, PP51A­-2287. Hernández et al. (2017) - Glob Planet Change 154, 61-74.

Spatial patterns of trends and teleconnections in climate indices relevant for Mexican maize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewes, C. F.

2013-05-01

This study contributes to the discussion of climate trends in Mexico and the influence of hemispheric-scale variability patterns over the period 1950-2008. Its uniqueness is three-fold. First, the choice of climate indices under scrutiny aims to represent an agro-climatic perspective, geared towards maize in particular because of the major role this crop plays in Mexico's culture, diet, and economy. Second, the spatial resolution and coverage of these findings can be useful for interpretations at the local level (i.e. district or state), yet keeping the broad national picture in perspective. This should be particularly useful to agro-climate forecasting, assessment of impacts, and/or policy development. Third, this study uncovers a dominance of the North Atlantic over the Pacific Ocean in respect to remote influences on trend patterns in Mexico. Trends in precipitation show that east of the central highlands, the rainy season is starting later and becoming drier. The same is occurring along the Pacific coastal plain, but there an increase in extreme events is also observed. For south-central Mexico and the Yucatán, rains not only are starting earlier but intensity and frequency of extreme events are also increasing. In some of these areas dry days are becoming more frequent. Trends in temperature suggest that highlands are warming at faster rates than lowlands, which in some places are actually cooling. Warming in the fall-winter growing season is more pronounced than in the spring-summer growing season. On the other hand, cold spells during mid-summer are becoming more frequent over the highlands. Connections were found between these trends and large-scale variability patterns, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interannual variability related to ENSO and the PNA, and trends towards more Niño-like conditions, are associated with increasing precipitation over the Yucatán and a few areas along the southern Pacific coast, and with more dry days - though accompanied by stronger extreme precipitation events - over southwestern Mexico. They are also associated with a delaying start of the rainy season in a narrow area just east of the south-central highlands and higher risk of frost during late-winter up in the highlands. Increasing Caribbean SSTs are associated with increasing temperatures over the mainland and stronger precipitation over the Yucatán. Variability in the NAO and its trend towards more positive phases is associated the drying trend in central Mexico, intensification of precipitation over the northwest, and also increasing temperatures over the entire mainland in both the warm and cold growing seasons. The atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean and its increasing tropical SSTs, have a larger and broader participation in Mexican trends than is noted with the Pacific counterparts.

Modelling hydrological extremes under non-stationary conditions using climate covariates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Galiatsatou, Panagiota; Loukas, Athanasios

2013-04-01

Extreme value theory is a probabilistic theory that can interpret the future probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (e.g. extreme precipitation and streamflow) using past observed records. Traditionally, extreme value theory requires the assumption of temporal stationarity. This assumption implies that the historical patterns of recurrence of extreme events are static over time. However, the hydroclimatic system is nonstationary on time scales that are relevant to extreme value analysis, due to human-mediated and natural environmental change. In this study the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is used to assess nonstationarity in annual maximum daily rainfall and streamflow timeseries at selected meteorological and hydrometric stations in Greece and Cyprus. The GEV distribution parameters (location, scale, and shape) are specified as functions of time-varying covariates and estimated using the conditional density network (CDN) as proposed by Cannon (2010). The CDN is a probabilistic extension of the multilayer perceptron neural network. Model parameters are estimated via the generalized maximum likelihood (GML) approach using the quasi-Newton BFGS optimization algorithm, and the appropriate GEV-CDN model architecture for the selected meteorological and hydrometric stations is selected by fitting increasingly complicated models and choosing the one that minimizes the Akaike information criterion with small sample size correction. For all case studies in Greece and Cyprus different formulations are tested with combinational cases of stationary and nonstationary parameters of the GEV distribution, linear and non-linear architecture of the CDN and combinations of the input climatic covariates. Climatic indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which describes atmospheric circulation in the eastern tropical pacific related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that varies on an interdecadal rather than interannual time scale and the atmospheric circulation patterns as expressed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are used to express the GEV parameters as functions of the covariates. Results show that the nonstationary GEV model can be an efficient tool to take into account the dependencies between extreme value random variables and the temporal evolution of the climate.

Modulation of MJO-Associated North Pacific Storm Track Variation by the QBO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Kim, H. M.; Chang, E. K. M.; Son, S. W.

2017-12-01

The North Pacific storm track (NPST) is a preferred region of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances which plays a critical role in the mid-latitude weather and climate variability during the cool season (October to March). Extreme precipitation, heat/cold events, and sub-seasonal variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are found to be caused/modulated by the NPST. Thus investigating the variability of the NPST and the possible precursors for its variation is an important field of research. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant intraseasonal mode in the tropics. A teleconnection between the MJO and the NPST has been realized recently. However, the MJO-NPST relationship shows a significant dependence on the background state. As previous studies primarily kept an eye on the modulation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the MJO-NPST relationship, this study focuses on the role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) because the QBO is suggested to make a much larger contribution to the interannual variability of the MJO than ENSO does. Results of this study show a regulation of the MJO-NPST relationship by different phases of the QBO. The amplitude of the MJO associated NPST variation is generally larger in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than in westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). The pattern of the NPST variation also exhibits significant differences between the two QBO phases. The analysis of the underlying mechanism from the perspective of intraseasonal mean flow indicates an important role of the MJO associated baroclinicity in the enhanced amplitude of the NPST variation in EQBO years. On the other hand, the pattern differences in the NPST variation during different QBO phases result from changes in the intraseasonal baroclinic energy conversion and corresponding energy propagation. The results of this study suggest a consideration of the QBO impact in reproducing the MJO-midlatitudes teleconnection in general circulation models (GCMs). This study also provides a potential route for the improvement of the sub-seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities.

A Modeling Study of the Causes and Predictability of the Spring 2011 Extreme U.S. Weather Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Chang, Yehui; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

2016-01-01

This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5, (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at 1-month leads. SST forcing (La Nia conditions) contributed to the broader continental-scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the Southeast. It was further found that 1) the 1 March atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern United States in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability), suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex; and 2) stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.

Climatic conditions produce contrasting influences on demographic traits in a long-distance Arctic migrant.

PubMed

Cleasby, Ian R; Bodey, Thomas W; Vigfusdottir, Freydis; McDonald, Jenni L; McElwaine, Graham; Mackie, Kerry; Colhoun, Kendrew; Bearhop, Stuart

2017-03-01

The manner in which patterns of variation and interactions among demographic rates contribute to population growth rate (λ) is key to understanding how animal populations will respond to changing climatic conditions. Migratory species are likely to be particularly sensitive to climatic conditions as they experience a range of different environments throughout their annual cycle. However, few studies have provided fully integrated demographic analyses of migratory populations in response to changing climatic conditions. Here, we employed integrated population models to demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a short but critical period play a central role in the demography of a long-distance migrant, the light-bellied Brent goose (Branta bernicla hrota). Female survival was positively associated with June North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) values, whereas male survival was not. In contrast, breeding productivity was negatively associated with June NAO, suggesting a trade-off between female survival and reproductive success. Both adult female and adult male survival showed low temporal variation, whereas there was high temporal variation in recruitment and breeding productivity. In addition, while annual population growth was positively correlated with annual breeding productivity, a sensitivity analysis revealed that population growth was most sensitive to changes in adult survival. Our results demonstrate that the environmental conditions experienced during a relatively short-time window at the start of the breeding season play a critical role in shaping the demography of a long-distant Arctic migrant. Crucially, different demographic rates responded in opposing directions to climatic variation, emphasising the need for integrated analysis of multiple demographic traits when understanding population dynamics. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tréguer, Paul; Goberville, Eric; Barrier, Nicolas; L'Helguen, Stéphane; Morin, Pascal; Bozec, Yann; Rimmelin-Maury, Peggy; Czamanski, Marie; Grossteffan, Emilie; Cariou, Thierry; Répécaud, Michel; Quéméner, Loic

2014-11-01

There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations.

Mediterranean circulation perturbations over the last five centuries: Relevance to past Eastern Mediterranean Transient-type events

PubMed Central

Incarbona, Alessandro; Martrat, Belen; Mortyn, P. Graham; Sprovieri, Mario; Ziveri, Patrizia; Gogou, Alexandra; Jordà, Gabriel; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Juerg; Langone, Leonardo; Marino, Gianluca; Rodríguez-Sanz, Laura; Triantaphyllou, Maria; Di Stefano, Enrico; Grimalt, Joan O.; Tranchida, Giorgio; Sprovieri, Rodolfo; Mazzola, Salvatore

2016-01-01

The Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) occurred in the Aegean Sea from 1988 to 1995 and is the most significant intermediate-to-deep Mediterranean overturning perturbation reported by instrumental records. The EMT was likely caused by accumulation of high salinity waters in the Levantine and enhanced heat loss in the Aegean Sea, coupled with surface water freshening in the Sicily Channel. It is still unknown whether similar transients occurred in the past and, if so, what their forcing processes were. In this study, sediments from the Sicily Channel document surface water freshening (SCFR) at 1910 ± 12, 1812 ± 18, 1725 ± 25 and 1580 ± 30 CE. A regional ocean hindcast links SCFR to enhanced deep-water production and in turn to strengthened Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. Independent evidence collected in the Aegean Sea supports this reconstruction, showing that enhanced bottom water ventilation in the Eastern Mediterranean was associated with each SCFR event. Comparison between the records and multi-decadal atmospheric circulation patterns and climatic external forcings indicates that Mediterranean circulation destabilisation occurs during positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) phases, reduced solar activity and strong tropical volcanic eruptions. They may have recurrently produced favourable deep-water formation conditions, both increasing salinity and reducing temperature on multi-decadal time scales. PMID:27412622

On the Origin of Multidecadal to Centennial Greenland Temperature Anomalies Over the Past 800 yr

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2013-01-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35%of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2013-03-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies due to its association with sea level rise. However, the causes of multidecadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland temperatures are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine these, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA[G-NH]) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardized northern hemispheric (NH) temperature from the standardized Greenland temperature. This decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); polar amplification; and regional variability (GTA[G-NH]). The central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA[G-NH] explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multidecadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. We found that the GTA[G-NH] has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modeling and proxy temperature records indicate that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Warmer, deeper, and greener mixed layers in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over the last 50 years.

PubMed

Martinez, Elodie; Raitsos, Dionysios E; Antoine, David

2016-02-01

Shifts in global climate resonate in plankton dynamics, biogeochemical cycles, and marine food webs. We studied these linkages in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASG), which hosts extensive phytoplankton blooms. We show that phytoplankton abundance increased since the 1960s in parallel to a deepening of the mixed layer and a strengthening of winds and heat losses from the ocean, as driven by the low frequency of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In parallel to these bottom-up processes, the top-down control of phytoplankton by copepods decreased over the same time period in the western NASG, following sea surface temperature changes typical of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). While previous studies have hypothesized that climate-driven warming would facilitate seasonal stratification of surface waters and long-term phytoplankton increase in subpolar regions, here we show that deeper mixed layers in the NASG can be warmer and host a higher phytoplankton biomass. These results emphasize that different modes of climate variability regulate bottom-up (NAO control) and top-down (AMO control) forcing on phytoplankton at decadal timescales. As a consequence, different relationships between phytoplankton, zooplankton, and their physical environment appear subject to the disparate temporal scale of the observations (seasonal, interannual, or decadal). The prediction of phytoplankton response to climate change should be built upon what is learnt from observations at the longest timescales. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-Term Trends, Variability and Extremes of In Situ Sea Surface Temperature Measured Along the Eastern Adriatic Coast and its Relationship to Hemispheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Beg Paklar, Gordana; Morović, Mira; Popović, Ružica; Vilibić, Ivica

2018-02-01

This paper examines long-term series of in situ sea surface temperature (SST) data measured at nine coastal and one open sea stations along the eastern Adriatic Sea for the period 1959-2015. Monthly and yearly averages were used to document SST trends and variability, while clustering and connections to hemispheric indices were achieved by applying the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method. Both PCA and SOM revealed the dominance of temporal changes with respect to the effects of spatial differences in SST anomalies, indicating the prevalence of hemispheric processes over local dynamics, such as bora wind spatial inhomogeneity. SST extremes were connected with blocking atmospheric patterns. A substantial warming between 1979 and 2015, in total exceeding 1 °C, was preceded by a period with a negative SST trend, implying strong multidecadal variability in the Adriatic. The strongest connection was found between yearly SST and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern, while North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns were found to also affect February SST values. Quantification of the Adriatic SST and their connection to hemispheric indices allow for more precise projections of future SST, considered to be rather important for Adriatic thermohaline circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries, and sensitive to ongoing climate change.

Exploring the new long-term (150 years) precipitation dataset in Azores archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Armand; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Kutiel, Haim; Valente, Maria A.; Sigró, Javier

2015-04-01

Within the scope of the two major international projects of long-term reanalysis for the 20th century coordinated by NOAA (Compo et al. 2011) and ECMWF (Hersbach et al. 2013) the IDL Institute from the University of Lisbon has digitized a large number of long-term stations records from Portugal and former Portuguese Colonies (Stickler et al. 2014). Recently we have finished the digitization of all precipitation values from Ponta Delgada (capital of the Azores archipelago) obtaining an uninterrupted precipitation monthly time series since 1864 and additionally an almost complete corresponding daily precipitation series, with the exception of some years (1864/1872; 1878/1879; 1888/1905; 1931; 1936 and 1938) for which only monthly values are available. Here, we present an annually, seasonally and daily resolution study of the rainfall regime in Ponta Delgada for the last 150 years and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influence over this precipitation regime. The distribution of precipitation presents an evident seasonal pattern, with a strong difference between the 'rainy season' (November/March) and the 'dry season' (June/August) with very little rainfall. April/May and September/October correspond to the transitional seasons. The mean annual rainfall in Ponta Delgada is approximately 910 mm and is accumulated (on average) in about 120 rainy days. The precipitation regime in Azores archipelago reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The entire studied period (1865-2012) shows an increase in the rainfall conditions between a drier earlier period (1865-1938) and a wetter recent period (1939-2012). At daily resolution, we have used an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells (consecutive days with rainfall accumulation) that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime (Kutiel and Trigo, 2014). This approach shows that the increase in precipitation is mainly due to more intense events which are reflected by higher rain spell yields (amount of precipitation) and rain spell intensity (amount of precipitation by day) values in the last decades. On the other hand, despite the fact that one of the most widely used NAO definitions includes sea level pressure from the Ponta Delgada station, its long-term impact on the Azores archipelago climate is not well established yet. Here, we assessed the NAO influence over the precipitation regime according to Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. Results show that the inter-annual variability of precipitation is largely modulated by the NAO mode. Correlation values of r=-0.90, r=-0.79 and r=-0.63 were obtained for years with positive (>1) or negative (

The Little Ice Age was 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than current warm period according to LOD and NAO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzarella, Adriano; Scafetta, Nicola

2018-02-01

We study the yearly values of the length of day (LOD, 1623-2016) and its link to the zonal index (ZI, 1873-2003), the Northern Atlantic oscillation index (NAO, 1659-2000) and the global sea surface temperature (SST, 1850-2016). LOD is herein assumed to be mostly the result of the overall circulations occurring within the ocean-atmospheric system. We find that LOD is negatively correlated with the global SST and with both the integral function of ZI and NAO, which are labeled as IZI and INAO. A first result is that LOD must be driven by a climatic change induced by an external (e.g. solar/astronomical) forcing since internal variability alone would have likely induced a positive correlation among the same variables because of the conservation of the Earth's angular momentum. A second result is that the high correlation among the variables implies that the LOD and INAO records can be adopted as global proxies to reconstruct past climate change. Tentative global SST reconstructions since the seventeenth century suggest that around 1700, that is during the coolest period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), SST could have been about 1.0-1.5 °C cooler than the 1950-1980 period. This estimated LIA cooling is greater than what some multiproxy global climate reconstructions suggested, but it is in good agreement with other more recent climate reconstructions including those based on borehole temperature data.

Evaluation of the impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall and hurricanes in Central and South America and the Atlantic Ocean using ICI-RAFT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giovannettone, J. P.

2013-12-01

Based on the method of Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) and L-moments (Hosking & Wallis, 1997), a tool was developed to estimate the frequency/intensity of a rainfall event of a particular duration using ground-based rainfall observations. Some of the code used to develop this tool was taken from the FORTRAN code provided by Hosking & Wallis and rewritten in Visual Basic 2010. This tool was developed at the International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) and is referred to as the ICIWaRM Regional Analysis of Frequency Tool (ICI-RAFT) (Giovannettone & Wright, 2012). In order to study the effectiveness of ICI-RAFT, three case studies were selected for the analysis. The studies take place in selected regions within Argentina, Nicaragua, and Venezuela. Rainfall data were provided at locations throughout each country; total rainfall for specific periods were computed and analyzed with respect to several global climate indices using lag times ranging from 1 to 6 months. Each analysis attempts to identify a global climate index capable of predicting above or below average rainfall several months in advance, qualitatively and using an equation that is developed. The index that had the greatest impact was the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), which is the focus of the current study. The MJO is considered the largest element of intra-seasonal (30 - 90 days) variability in the tropical atmosphere and, unlike other indices, is characterized by the eastward propagation of large areas of convective anomalies near the equator, propagating from the Indian Ocean east into the Pacific Ocean. The anomalies are monitored globally using ten different indices located on lines of longitude near the equator, with seven in the eastern hemisphere and three in the western hemisphere. It has been found in previous studies that the MJO is linked to summer rainfall in Southeast China (Zhang et al., 2009) and southern Africa (Pohl et al., 2007) and to rainfall patterns in Australia (Wheeler et al., 2009). The current study found that similar strong relationships between MJO activity over Africa and the western Indian Ocean and rainfall totals in central Argentina, Nicaragua, and northwestern Venezuela. For example, in Nicaragua, the 20-year event almost doubles depending on the phase of the MJO. A fourth case study attempts to develop a relationship between the annual number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean during the hurricane season (July - October) and the average value of the Madden-Julian Oscillation over Africa during a period 3 - 4 months prior to the hurricane season. Similar work has been performed in the northern Atlantic by Villarini et al. (2010), except the authors focused on other indices, including tropical mean sea-surface temperatures (SST's), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Even though the NAO and SOI show some correlation with hurricane activity, the results of the current study show that there is a stronger link between the MJO prior to hurricane season and the total number of hurricanes that form. The greatest correlation again comes from MJO activity over Africa.

SWH trends and links to large scale teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Pino, C.; Galati, M. B.

2010-09-01

This study analyzes the SWH field in the Mediterranean Sea using a multidecadal simulations (1958-2001) carried out using the WAM (WAve Model) forced by the REMO-HIPOCAS wind fields. The simulations are validated against satellite altimeter data. Several mid-latitude patterns are linked to the SWH field in the Mediterranean. Considering the mean monthly SWH values, EA (Eastern Atlantic pattern) exerts the largest influence, while NAO and other patterns have a smaller but comparable effect. Severe SWH conditions have been characterized using the 95percentile of daily SWH maxima. NAO is important mainly for high SWH conditions in winter with significant correlation in December, January and March, but also EA, SCA (SCAndinavian) and EA-WR (Eastern Atlantic-Western Russia) play an important role. In general, both SWH high and mean values are modulated by several patterns, with an important variability in space and at monthly level so that no single pattern can be attributed a dominant role along the whole annual cycle and all the mentioned patterns are important for at least few months in the year. Significant trends of SWH are present only in sparse areas and suggest mostly a minor decrease of storm intensity, The statistics of extremes and high SWH values is substantially steady during the second half of the 20th century.

An east-west climate see-saw in the Mediterranean during the last 2.6 ka: evidence and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, C.; Moreno-Caballud, A.; Valero-Garces, B. L.; Luterbacher, J.; Xoplaki, E.; Allcock, S. L.

2012-12-01

Global precipitation anomalies during the Common Era show a spatial coherency that appears to be about an order of magnitude lower (i.e. smaller) than for temperature changes, as some areas became wetter while others experienced drought (Seager et al., 2007, Quat. Sci. Rev. 26, 2322-36). The Mediterranean basin (10°W-40°E; 30°-45°N) is influenced by some of the main mechanisms acting upon the global climate system and its regional water resources are sensitive to hydro-climatic variations. Reconstructing the timing, intensity, and patterns of hydrological variability in the Mediterranean is important for testing spatial-temporal coherency in palaeo-precipitation, and for understanding underlying climate forcing mechanisms. The region offers a broad spectrum of documentary information and natural archives which allow high-resolution climate reconstructions (Luterbacher et al., 2012, In: Lionello et al. (eds) The Mediterranean Climate: from past to future. Elsevier, pp. 87-185). During the period of instrumental records, the NAO has strongly influenced inter-annual precipitation variations in the western Mediterranean, while parts of the eastern basin have shown an anti-phase relationship in precipitation and atmospheric pressure. A wide array of proxy-climate data from Iberia and Morocco indicate overall drier conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a generally wetter climate in the Little Ice Age (LIA)(Moreno et al., 2012, Quat. Sci. Rev. 43, 16-32). This pattern is consistent with strong NAO forcing of western Mediterranean climate over the last 1.1 ka (Trouet et al., 2009; Science 324, 78-80). High-resolution palaeolimnological evidence from central Anatolia exhibit an opposite pattern, implying that an east-west climate see-saw operated in the Mediterranean basin during the LIA and MCA (Roberts et al., 2012; Glob. Planet. Change 84-85, 23-34). However, the strongest evidence for higher (lower) winter season precipitation during the MCA (LIA) does not come from the southeast sector of the Mediterranean basin, as would be expected from the pattern of NAO forcing seen during the instrumental period. Prior to the MCA, many proxy-climate records show changes of significantly larger amplitude than during the last millennium, notably during and after the Roman period. However, absolute chronologies become less precise with dating errors of ±>50 yr (Dermody et al., 2012; Clim. Past 8, 637-651), making correlations less robust. Before 2.6 ka BP, i.e. coincident with the northern European grenzhorizont, proxy-climate records from the Mediterranean show changes which imply a significant shift in atmospheric boundary conditions (e.g. radiative forcing). It is clear that hydro-climatic trends have been non-uniform across the Mediterranean in recent millennia. The contrasting spatio-temporal patterns across the basin appear to have been determined by a combination of different climate modes along with major physical geographical controls, not by NAO forcing alone, and/or the character of the NAO and its teleconnections have been non-stationary.

Millennial surface water dynamics in the Ria de Vigo during the last 3,000 years as revealed by coccolithophores and biomarkers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez, M. C.; Flores, J. A.; Sierro, F. J.; Diz, P.; Frances, G.; Pelejero, C.; Grimalt, J.

2003-04-01

A combined study of coccolithophore assemblages and biomarkers in gravity core VIR-18 (380 cm long) located in the Ria de Vigo (42°14.07 N, 8°47.37W) at a water depth of 45 m situated in the Ria de Vigo (SW Spain) has allowed us to reconstruct the paleoenvironmental conditions for the last 3000 years. The quantitative distribution of coccolithophore species points to three different intervals along the core, dated by AMS radiocarbon measurements. A first interval (I; ca. 975 BC-252 AD), characterized by high abundances of Calcidiscus leptoporus and Gephyrocapsa muellerae, features moderate temperatures, suggesting a transition from a warmer to a cooler period. A second interval (II; ca. 252-1368 AD), characterized by the dominance of Coccolithus pelagicus, Helicosphaera carteri and Syracosphaera spp., and a high concentration of hexacosanol linked to terrestrial input, is interpreted as having been a humid period with prevailing runoff. The third interval (III; ca. 1368 AD-1950) is characterized by a high abundance of Gephyrocapsa oceanica, high values of alkenones and low values of hexacosanol, and is interpreted as a period of dominance of oceanic conditions within the Ria. Taking into account the ocean-atmospheric system existing in the region studied, we propose an alternance in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at millennial time scale. A developed upwelling and a good Ria-ocean connection in the warmer Interval I, suggest a NAO+ phase influenced by a Hypsithermal period. The occurrence of the humid and relatively warm Interval II is consistent with a negative phase in the NAO, as well as a relative restriction in ocean-Ria exchange. Interval III, which was dryer and more productive, suggests the dominance of a positive phase in the NAO, with a more intense oceanic connection and more energized upwelling.

Climatic and Societal Causes for Abrupt Environmental Change in the Mediterranean During the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mensing, S. A.; Tunno, I.; Sagnotti, L.; Florindo, F.; Noble, P. J.; Archer, C.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.; Pavón-Carrasco, F. J.; Cifnani, G.; Passigli, S.; Piovesan, G.

2015-12-01

We compare climatic and societal causes for abrupt environmental change for the last 2000 years in the Rieti Basin, central Italy using high-resolution sedimentary paleoenvironmental proxies, historical documents, and annually resolved independent climate reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. Pollen zones, identified from temporally constrained cluster analysis, coincide with historic periods developed from well-established ceramic sequences corresponding to the Roman Imperial through Late Antique (1 to 600 CE) Early Medieval (600 to 875 CE), Medieval through Late Medieval (875 to 1400 CE), Renaissance and Modern (1400 to 1725 CE), and Contemporary periods (1725 CE to present). Non-metric dimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination showed that each temporal period occupied a unique ecologic space suggesting that a new landscape was created during each successive historic period. During Roman time, between 1 and 500 CE, a modest decline in forest coincides with a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and drier climate; however mesophyllous forest is preserved. Steep decline in forest cover between 850 and 950 CE coincides with positive temperature anomalies in Europe and a positive NAO. Although this would seem to suggest climate as a cause, temperature and precipitation changes are modest and the magnitude and rapidity of the vegetation change suggests climate played a small role. Archaeological evidence from across Europe identifies socioeconomic factors that produced forest clearing. In contrast, cooler temperatures and a negative NAO (increased ppt) appears to have been a catalyst for land abandonment and forest recovery in the 13th to 14th centuries. The NAO produces opposite effects on societies in the eastern and western Mediterranean with the negative phase in 1400 CE leading to cool wet climate and land abandonment in central Italy but an abrupt shift to drier conditions and change from sedentary village life to nomadism in Syria.

A new approach developed to study variability in North African dust transport routes over the Atlantic during 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, L.; Gao, H. W.; Yu, Y.; Yao, X. H.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, C.; Fan, Lei

2017-10-01

We investigated the variability in the North African dust transport routes over the Atlantic (NAD routes) by extracting the dust transport central axis using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aerosol data for 2001-2015. The results showed that the NAD routes can be classified into two regimes, a southern route centered at the southernmost position of 6.08 ± 1.12°N during November to March and a northern route centered at the northernmost position of 18.21 ± 1.04°N during April to October. In the southern route, large intervariation was correlated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but the ITCZ and NAO jointly explained only 38% of the variation. In the northern route, the ITCZ alone explained 67% of the intervariation. The extracted trends during 2001-2015 exhibited a northward shift of 1.68° for the southern route and of 0.52° for the northern route. The causes for the shift were also examined.

Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century temperature variability from Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, G.S.; Kamiya, T.; Schwede, S.; Willard, D.A.

2003-01-01

We present paleoclimate evidence for rapid (< 100 years) shifts of ~2-4oC in Chesapeake Bay (CB) temperature ~2100, 1600, 950, 650, 400 and 150 years before present (years BP) reconstructed from magnesium/calcium (Mg/Ca) paleothermometry. These include large temperature excursions during the Little Ice Age (~1400-1900 AD) and the Medieval Warm Period (~800-1300 AD) possibly related to changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Evidence is presented for a long period of sustained regional and North Atlantic-wide warmth with low-amplitude temperature variability between ~450 and 1000 AD. In addition to centennial-scale temperature shifts, the existence of numerous temperature maxima between 2200 and 250 years BP (average ~70 years) suggests that multi-decadal processes typical of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are an inherent feature of late Holocene climate. However, late 19th and 20th century temperature extremes in Chesapeake Bay associated with NAO climate variability exceeded those of the prior 2000 years, including the interval 450-1000 AD, by 2-3oC, suggesting anomalous recent behavior of the climate system.

A Picea crassifolia Tree-Ring Width-Based Temperature Reconstruction for the Mt. Dongda Region, Northwest China, and Its Relationship to Large-Scale Climate Forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Sun, Changfeng; Li, Qiang; Cai, Qiufang

2016-01-01

The historical May-October mean temperature since 1831 was reconstructed based on tree-ring width of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) collected on Mt. Dongda, North of the Hexi Corridor in Northwest China. The regression model explained 46.6% of the variance of the instrumentally observed temperature. The cold periods in the reconstruction were 1831-1889, 1894-1901, 1908-1934 and 1950-1952, and the warm periods were 1890-1893, 1902-1907, 1935-1949 and 1953-2011. During the instrumental period (1951-2011), an obvious warming trend appeared in the last twenty years. The reconstruction displayed similar patterns to a temperature reconstruction from the east-central Tibetan Plateau at the inter-decadal timescale, indicating that the temperature reconstruction in this study was a reliable proxy for Northwest China. It was also found that the reconstruction series had good consistency with the Northern Hemisphere temperature at a decadal timescale. Multi-taper method spectral analysis detected some low- and high-frequency cycles (2.3-2.4-year, 2.8-year, 3.4-3.6-year, 5.0-year, 9.9-year and 27.0-year). Combining these cycles, the relationship of the low-frequency change with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) suggested that the reconstructed temperature variations may be related to large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variations. Major volcanic eruptions were partly reflected in the reconstructed temperatures after high-pass filtering; these events promoted anomalous cooling in this region. The results of this study not only provide new information for assessing the long-term temperature changes in the Hexi Corridor of Northwest China, but also further demonstrate the effects of large-scale atmospheric-oceanic circulation on climate change in Northwest China.

Weather and extremes in the last Millennium - a challenge for climate modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raible, Christoph C.; Blumer, Sandro R.; Gomez-Navarro, Juan J.; Lehner, Flavio

2015-04-01

Changes in the climate mean state are expected to influence society, but the socio-economic sensitivity to extreme events might be even more severe. Whether or not the current frequency and severity of extreme events is a unique characteristic of anthropogenic-driven climate change can be assessed by putting the observed changes in a long-term perspective. In doing so, early instrumental series and proxy archives are a rich source to investigate also extreme events, in particular during the last millennium, yet they suffer from spatial and temporal scarcity. Therefore, simulations with coupled general circulation models (GCMs) could fill such gaps and help in deepening our process understanding. In this study, an overview of past and current efforts as well as challenges in modelling paleo weather and extreme events is presented. Using simulations of the last millennium we investigate extreme midlatitude cyclone characteristics, precipitation, and their connection to large-scale atmospheric patterns in the North Atlantic European region. In cold climate states such as the Maunder Minimum, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is found to be predominantly in its negative phase. In this sense, simulations of different models agree with proxy findings for this period. However, some proxy data available for this period suggests an increase in storminess during this period, which could be interpreted as a positive phase of the NAO - a superficial contradiction. The simulated cyclones are partly reduced over Europe, which is consistent with the aforementioned negative phase of the NAO. However, as the meridional temperature gradient is increased during this period - which constitutes a source of low-level baroclincity - they also intensify. This example illustrates how model simulations could be used to improve our proxy interpretation and to gain additional process understanding. Nevertheless, there are also limitations associated with climate modeling efforts to simulate the last millennium. In particular, these models still struggle to properly simulate atmospheric blocking events, an important dynamical feature for dry conditions during summer times. Finally, new and promising ways in improving past climate modelling are briefly introduced. In particular, the use of dynamical downscaling is a powerful tool to bridge the gap between the coarsely resolved GCMs and characteristics of the regional climate, which is potentially recorded in proxy archives. In particular, the representation of extreme events could be improved by dynamical downscaling as processes are better resolved than GCMs.

Characterization of large-scale fluctuations and short-term variability of Seine river daily streamflow (France) over the period 1950-2008 by empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert-Huang transform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massei, N.; Fournier, M.

2010-12-01

Daily Seine river flow from 1950 to 2008 was analyzed using Hilbert-Huang Tranform (HHT). For the last ten years, this method which combines the so-called Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) multiresolution analysis and the Hilbert transform has proven its efficiency for the analysis of transient oscillatory signals, although the mathematical definition of the EMD is not totally established yet. HHT also provides an interesting alternative to other time-frequency or time-scale analysis of non-stationary signals, the most famous of which being wavelet-based approaches. In this application of HHT to the analysis of the hydrological variability of the Seine river, we seek to characterize the interannual patterns of daily flow, differenciate them from the short-term dynamics and eventually interpret them in the context of regional climate regime fluctuations. In this aim, HHT is also applied to the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through the annual winter-months NAO index time series. For both hydrological and climatic signals, dominant variability scales are extracted and their temporal variations analyzed by determination of the intantaneous frequency of each component. When compared to previous ones obtained from continuous wavelet transform (CWT) on the same data, HHT results highlighted the same scales and somewhat the same internal components for each signal. However, HHT allowed the identification and extraction of much more similar features during the 1950-2008 period (e.g., around 7-yr, between NAO and Seine flow than what was obtained from CWT, which comes to say that variability scales in flow likely to originate from climatic regime fluctuations were much properly identified in river flow. In addition, a more accurate determination of singularities in the natural processes analyzed were authorized by HHT compared to CWT, in which case the time-frequency resolution partly depends on the basic properties of the filter (i.e., the reference wavelet chosen initially). Compared to CWT or even to discrete wavelet multiresolution analysis, HHT is auto-adaptive, non-parametric, allows an orthogonal decomposition of the signal analyzed and provides a more accurate estimation of changing variability scales across time for highly transient signals.

Influence of climate cycles on grapevine domestication and ancient migrations in Eurasia.

PubMed

Mariani, Luigi; Cola, Gabriele; Maghradze, David; Failla, Osvaldo; Zavatti, Franco

2018-09-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the Holocenic climate cycles that may have influenced the domestication of grapevine in the Subcaucasian area and its subsequent spread in Eurasia. The analysis covered the longitudinal belt ranging from the Iberian Peninsula to Japan, seen as the preferential pathway for the Holocenic spread of grapevine and many other crops in Eurasia. Spectral analysis was considered as the criterion of investigation and the Holocenic cycles were analyzed considering different geochemical and biological proxies, of which seven are directly referred to vine. In this context the relation of the abovementioned proxies with spectral peaks of possible causal factors like Solar activity (SA), North Atlantic oceanic factors (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), and subtropical oceanic factors (El Nino Southern Oscillation - ENSO) was also analyzed. In order to acquire a sufficiently wide number of proxies sensitive to the causal factors, we referred to a latitudinal belt wider than the one colonized by vine, also acquiring proxy from the Scandinavian area, notoriously susceptible to North Atlantic forcings. The analysis of the proxy spectral peaks, considering 20 classes with a 50-years step in the 0-1000 years range, showed that the 50% of the classes have a higher frequency of peaks at East than West, the 20% a higher frequency at West than East and the 10% an equal frequency, showing the efficiency of the propagation of Western signals towards the center of Eurasia. The search of the causal factors spectral peaks in the proxy series showed that AMO, NAO and SA acted with a certain regularity on the entire belt investigated both latitudinally and longitudinally, while spectral peaks linked to ENSO underwent a considerable attenuation moving northward. Finally, the specific analysis on viticultural proxies showed common peaks with causal factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the Seasonality and Spatiotemporal Evolution of the U.S. Warming Hole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partridge, T.; Winter, J.; Osterberg, E. C.; Magilligan, F. J.; Hyndman, D. W.; Kendall, A. D.

2017-12-01

Regions of the Eastern United States have experienced periods of cooling during the last half of the twentieth century inconsistent with broader global warming trends. While there have been a variety of mechanisms proposed to explain this "warming hole", the spatial and temporal definitions of the warming hole often differ across studies, potentially obfuscating the physical drivers leading to its existence. Further, a broad consensus on the causality of the warming hole has yet to be reached. We use daily temperature data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) to conduct a thorough characterization of the spatiotemporal evolution and seasonality of regional cooling across the Eastern U.S., and define a dynamic warming hole as the region of most persistent cooling. We find that the location of the dynamic warming hole varies by season from the Midwestern U.S. during summer to the Southeastern U.S. during winter. In addition, the cool period associated with the warming hole is characterized by an abrupt decrease in maximum temperature (Tx) and a decline in minimum temperature (Tn) around 1957. While average Tn values in the warming hole recover after the decline and increase from the mid 1960's to present, Tx values for the second half of the 20th century remain below observed values from the first half of the century. To explore large-scale atmospheric drivers of the dynamic warming hole, we correlate SST teleconnection and regional atmospheric circulation indices with seasonal temperature values from 1901-1957 and 1958-2015. We show that 1957 marks a shift, where winter temperatures in the warming hole become more correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and less correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Summer warming hole temperatures become less correlated with the NAO post 1957 and are strongly negatively correlated with precipitation.

How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Mehta, Amita V.

2008-01-01

The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).

Long-term phenological trends, species accumulation rates, aphid traits and climate: five decades of change in migrating aphids.

PubMed

Bell, James R; Alderson, Lynda; Izera, Daniela; Kruger, Tracey; Parker, Sue; Pickup, Jon; Shortall, Chris R; Taylor, Mark S; Verrier, Paul; Harrington, Richard

2015-01-01

Aphids represent a significant challenge to food production. The Rothamsted Insect Survey (RIS) runs a network of 12·2-m suction-traps throughout the year to collect migrating aphids. In 2014, the RIS celebrated its 50th anniversary. This paper marks that achievement with an extensive spatiotemporal analysis and the provision of the first British annotated checklist of aphids since 1964. Our main aim was to elucidate mechanisms that advance aphid phenology under climate change and explain these using life-history traits. We then highlight emerging pests using accumulation patterns. Linear and nonlinear mixed-effect models estimated the average rate of change per annum and effects of climate on annual counts, first and last flights and length of flight season since 1965. Two climate drivers were used: the accumulated day degrees above 16 °C (ADD16) indicated the potential for migration during the aphid season; the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signalled the severity of the winter before migration took place. All 55 species studied had earlier first flight trends at rate of β = -0·611 ± SE 0·015 days year(-1). Of these species, 49% had earlier last flights, but the average species effect appeared relatively stationary (β = -0·010 ± SE 0·022 days year(-1)). Most species (85%) showed increasing duration of their flight season (β = 0·336 ± SE 0·026 days year(-1)), even though only 54% increased their log annual count (β = 0·002 ± SE <0·001 year(-1)). The ADD16 and NAO were shown to drive patterns in aphid phenology in a spatiotemporal context. Early in the year when the first aphids were migrating, the effect of the winter NAO was highly significant. Further into the year, ADD16 was a strong predictor. Latitude had a near linear effect on first flights, whereas longitude produced a generally less-clear effect on all responses. Aphids that are anholocyclic (permanently parthenogenetic) or are monoecious (non-host-alternating) were advancing their phenology faster than those that were not. Climate drives phenology and traits help explain how this takes place biologically. Phenology and trait ecology are critical to understanding the threat posed by emerging pests such as Myzus persicae nicotianae and Aphis fabae cirsiiacanthoidis, as revealed by the species accumulation analysis. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Extratropical response to Fast and Slow episodes of Madden-Julian Oscillation in observation and using intervention experiments with CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, P.; Straus, D. M.

2017-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a potential source of predictability in the extratropics in extended range weather forecasting. The nature of MJO is sporadic and therefore, the mid-latitude response may depend on the nature of the MJO event, in particular the phase speed. We discuss the results of our observational and modeling study of mid-latitude circulation response to Fast and Slow MJO episodes using wintertime ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the CFSv2 coupled model of NOAA. The observational study shows that the mid-latitude response to different propagating speeds is not the same. The propagation speed is defined by the time the OLR takes to propagate from phase 3 to phase 6. The mid-latitude response is assessed in terms of composite maps and frequency of occurrence of robust circulation regimes. Fast episode composite anomalies of 500hPa height show a developing Rossby wave in the mid-Pacific with downstream propagation through MJO phases 2- 4. Development of NAO+ teleconnection pattern is stronger in Slow that in Fast MJO episodes, and occurs with a greater time lag after MJO heating is in the Indian Ocean (phase 3). Previous results find an increase in occurrence of NAO- regime following phase 6. We have found that much of this behavior is due to the slow episodes. Based on these observational results, intervention experiments using CFSv2 are designed to better understand the impact of heating/cooling and to estimate mid-latitude response to Fast and Slow MJO episodes. The added heating experiments consist of 31 year reforecasts for December 1 initial conditions from CFS reanalysis (1980-2011) in which the identical MJO evolution of three-dimensional diabatic heating has been added, thus producing fast and slow MJO episodes with well-defined phase speeds. We will discuss the results of these experiments with a focus on understanding the role of phase speed and interference in setting up the response, and to understand the mechanisms that distinguish fast and slow types of response We will also discuss the diagnostics using Predictable Component Analysis to distinguish the signal forced by common diabatic heating signal from noise, and weather regime response to fast and slow MJO using cluster analysis.

Spatiotemporal Variability of the Meteorological Drought in Romania using the Standardized Precipitation Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheval, Sorin; Busuioc, Aristita; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Birsan, Marius-Victor

2013-04-01

Drought events occur over any geographical area, and may impact severely the environment and society. In terms of economic losses, droughts are one of the major natural hazards affecting Romania, so that the topic has been constantly approached. In general, the climatic projections over the 21st century display increasing temperatures and very likely declining summer precipitation (Busuioc et al., 2010), probably causing better drought conditions. This study examines the variability of the droughts in Romania, aiming to characterize the droughts intensity, durations and frequency (a), to identify spatial and temporal patterns (b), trends (c), and potential triggering factors (d). Besides, we consider comparing the performance of different instances of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993), such as time scale and probability distribution functions (gamma and Pearson type III), for retrieving drought characteristics. Homogenous monthly precipitation amounts from 98 weather stations run by the Romanian Meteorological Administration covering the period 1961-2010 were the primary data for calculating 1, 3, 6, and 12-month time scale SPI. The Mann-Kendall statistics sustained the trend significance examination, while Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis synthesizes the climate signal related to spatial and temporal characteristics of variability over Romania. The SPI variability over Romania is mainly influenced by the large-scale mechanisms (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)) accounting for more than 50% from the observed variance, on second place being the Carpathians accounting for the highest influence in winter (11%). Thus, the Carpathians separate Romania in two major regions in terms of drought characteristics, namely outside and inside the mountainous arch. Significant trends towards dry conditions are noted at very few stations in winter, spring and summer, while trend to precipitation surplus cover extended areas in autumn. Further, preliminary analysis has demonstrated that NAO and AMO influence the characteristics of the meteorological drought over Romania, and qualify as possible predictors in water deficit studies. However, a stronger connection was found between the time series associated to SPI EOF1 and sea level pressure EOF1 over the region 5°E-45°E, 30°N-55°N. The work has been financed by the research project Changes in climate extremes and associated impact in hydrological events in Romania (CLIMHYDEX), Cod PN II-ID-2011-2-0073, sponsored by the National Authority for Scientific Research.

Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

2016-09-01

The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Untangling Trends and Drivers of Changing River Discharge Along Florida's Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glodzik, K.; Kaplan, D. A.; Klarenberg, G.

2017-12-01

Along the relatively undeveloped Big Bend coastline of Florida, discharge in many rivers and springs is decreasing. The causes are unclear, though they likely include a combination of groundwater extraction for water supply, climate variability, and altered land use. Saltwater intrusion from altered freshwater influence and sea level rise is causing transformative ecosystem impacts along this flat coastline, including coastal forest die-off and oyster reef collapse. A key uncertainty for understanding river discharge change is predicting discharge from rainfall, since Florida's karstic bedrock stores large amounts of groundwater, which has a long residence time. This study uses Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a multivariate data reduction technique for time series, to find common trends in flow and reveal hydrologic variables affecting flow in eight Big Bend rivers since 1965. The DFA uses annual river flows as response time series, and climate data (annual rainfall and evapotranspiration by watershed) and climatic indices (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Index and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] Index) as candidate explanatory variables. Significant explanatory variables (one evapotranspiration and three rainfall time series) explained roughly 50% of discharge variation across rivers. Significant trends (representing unexplained variation) were shared among rivers, with geographical grouping of five northern rivers and three southern rivers, along with a strong downward trend affecting six out of eight systems. ENSO and NAO had no significant impact. Advancing knowledge of these dynamics is necessary for forecasting how altered rainfall and temperatures from climate change may impact flows. Improved forecasting is especially important given Florida's reliance on groundwater extraction to support its growing population.

Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús

2008-02-01

Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

Late Holocene climate change in the western Mediterranean: centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos Román, M. J.; Jimenez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; García-Alix, A.; Toney, J. L.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J. J.; Carrión, J. S.

2015-12-01

Sediments from alpine peat bogs and lakes from the Sierra Nevada in southeastern Spain (western Mediterranean area) have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by past climate change. Recently, many studies try to find out the relationship between solar activity, atmosphere and ocean dynamics and changes in the terrestrial environments. The Mediterranean is a very sensitive area with respect to atmospheric dynamics due to (1) its location, right in the boundary between subtropical and temperate climate systems and (2) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the main mechanism that influence present climate in this area. Here we present a multi-proxy high-resolution study from Borreguil de la Caldera (BdlC), a peat bog that records the last ca. 4500 cal yr BP of vegetation, fire, human impact and climate history from the Sierra Nevada. The pollen, charcoal and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) reconstruction in the BdlC-01 record evidence relative humidity changes in the last millennia interrupting the late Holocene aridification trend. This study shows a relative arid period between ca. 4000 and 3100 cal yr BP; the Iberian Roman humid period (ca. 2600 to 1600 cal yr BP); a relative arid period during the Dark Ages (from ca. AD 500 to AD 900) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. AD 900 to ca. AD 1300) and predominantly wetter conditions corresponding with The Little Ice Age period (from ca. AD 1300 to AD 1850). This climate variability could be explained by centennial scale changes in the NAO and solar activity.

Vadose zone controls on damping of climate-induced transient recharge fluxes in U.S. agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurdak, Jason

2017-04-01

Understanding the physical processes in the vadose zone that link climate variability with transient recharge fluxes has particular relevance for the sustainability of groundwater-supported irrigated agriculture and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has well-documented influence on precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, infiltration flux, and can augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Here the behavior and damping depth of climate-induced transient water flux in the vadose zone is explored. The damping depth is the depth in the vadose zone that the flux variation damps to 5% of the land surface variation. Steady-state recharge occurs when the damping depth is above the water table, and transient recharge occurs when the damping depth is below the water table. Findings are presented from major agroecosystems of the United States (U.S.), including the High Plains, Central Valley, California Coastal Basin, and Mississippi Embayment aquifer systems. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used to identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). SSA results indicate that nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. Results from HYDRUS-1D simulations indicate that transient water flux through the vadose zone are controlled by highly nonlinear interactions between mean infiltration flux and infiltration period related to the modes of climate variability and the local soil textures, layering, and depth to the water table. Simulation results for homogeneous profiles generally show that shorter-period climate oscillations, smaller mean fluxes, and finer-grained soil textures generally produce damping depths closer to land surface. Simulation results for layered soil textures indicate more complex responses in the damping depth, including the finding that finer-textured layers in a coarser soil profile generally result in damping depths closer to land surface, while coarser-textured layers in coarser soil profile result in damping depths deeper in the vadose zone. Findings from this study improve understanding of how vadose zone properties influences transient recharge flux and damp climate variability signals in groundwater systems, and have important implications for sustainable management of groundwater resources and coupled agroecosystems under future climate variability and change.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

Climate and the complexity of migratory phenology: sexes, migratory distance, and arrival distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macmynowski, Dena P.; Root, Terry L.

2007-05-01

The intra- and inter-season complexity of bird migration has received limited attention in climatic change research. Our phenological analysis of 22 species collected in Chicago, USA, (1979 2002) evaluates the relationship between multi-scalar climate variables and differences (1) in arrival timing between sexes, (2) in arrival distributions among species, and (3) between spring and fall migration. The early migratory period for earliest arriving species (i.e., short-distance migrants) and earliest arriving individuals of a species (i.e., males) most frequently correlate with climate variables. Compared to long-distance migrant species, four times as many short-distance migrants correlate with spring temperature, while 8 of 11 (73%) of long-distance migrant species’ arrival is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While migratory phenology has been correlated with NAO in Europe, we believe that this is the first documentation of a significant association in North America. Geographically proximate conditions apparently influence migratory timing for short-distance migrants while continental-scale climate (e.g., NAO) seemingly influences the phenology of Neotropical migrants. The preponderance of climate correlations is with the early migratory period, not the median of arrival, suggesting that early spring conditions constrain the onset or rate of migration for some species. The seasonal arrival distribution provides considerable information about migratory passage beyond what is apparent from statistical analyses of phenology. A relationship between climate and fall phenology is not detected at this location. Analysis of the within-season complexity of migration, including multiple metrics of arrival, is essential to detect species’ responses to changing climate as well as evaluate the underlying biological mechanisms.

Hierarchical Porous Carbon Spheres for High-Performance Na-O2 Batteries.

PubMed

Sun, Bing; Kretschmer, Katja; Xie, Xiuqiang; Munroe, Paul; Peng, Zhangquan; Wang, Guoxiu

2017-12-01

As a new family member of room-temperature aprotic metal-O 2 batteries, Na-O 2 batteries, are attracting growing attention because of their relatively high theoretical specific energy and particularly their uncompromised round-trip efficiency. Here, a hierarchical porous carbon sphere (PCS) electrode that has outstanding properties to realize Na-O 2 batteries with excellent electrochemical performances is reported. The controlled porosity of the PCS electrode, with macropores formed between PCSs and nanopores inside each PCS, enables effective formation/decomposition of NaO 2 by facilitating the electrolyte impregnation and oxygen diffusion to the inner part of the oxygen electrode. In addition, the discharge product of NaO 2 is deposited on the surface of individual PCSs with an unusual conformal film-like morphology, which can be more easily decomposed than the commonly observed microsized NaO 2 cubes in Na-O 2 batteries. A combination of coulometry, X-ray diffraction, and in situ differential electrochemical mass spectrometry provides compelling evidence that the operation of the PCS-based Na-O 2 battery is underpinned by the formation and decomposition of NaO 2 . This work demonstrates that employing nanostructured carbon materials to control the porosity, pore-size distribution of the oxygen electrodes, and the morphology of the discharged NaO 2 is a promising strategy to develop high-performance Na-O 2 batteries. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Extracting the driving force from ozone data using slow feature analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Geli; Yang, Peicai; Zhou, Xiuji

2016-05-01

Slow feature analysis (SFA) is a recommended technique for extracting slowly varying features from a quickly varying signal. In this work, we apply SFA to total ozone data from Arosa, Switzerland. The results show that the signal of volcanic eruptions can be found in the driving force, and wavelet analysis of this driving force shows that there are two main dominant scales, which may be connected with the effect of climate mode such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity. The findings of this study represent a contribution to our understanding of the causality from observed climate data.

Observed and Aogcm Simulated Relationships Between us Wind Speeds and Large Scale Modes of Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoof, J. T.; Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.

2013-12-01

Previous research has indicated that large-scale modes of climate variability, such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), influence the inter-annual and intra-annual variability of near-surface and upper-level wind speeds over the United States. For example, we have shown that rawinsonde derived wind speeds indicate that 90th percentile of wind speeds at 700 hPa over the Pacific Northwest and Southwestern USA are significantly higher under the negative phase of the PNA, and the Central Plains experiences higher wind speeds at 850 hPa under positive phase Southern Oscillation index while the Northeast exhibits higher wind speeds at 850 hPa under positive phase NAO. Here, we extend this research by further investigating these relationships using both reanalysis products and output from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) developed for the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The research presented has two specific goals. First, we evaluate the AOGCM simulations in terms of their ability to represent the temporal and spatial representations of ENSO, the AO, and the PNA pattern relative to historical observations. The diagnostics used include calculation of the power spectra (and thus representation of the fundamental frequencies of variability) and Taylor diagrams (for comparative assessment of the spatial patterns and their intensities). Our initial results indicate that most AOGCMs produce modes that are qualitatively similar to those observed, but that differ slightly in terms of the spatial pattern, intensity of specific centers of action, and variance explained. Figure 1 illustrates an example of the analysis of the frequencies of variability of two climate modes for the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (NNR) and a single AOGCM (BCC CSM1). The results show a high degree of similarity in the power spectra but for this AOGCM the variance of the PNA associated with high frequencies are amplified relative to those in NNR. Second, we quantify the observed and AOGCM-simulated relationships between ENSO, AO, and PNA indices and zonal and meridional wind components at multiple levels for the contiguous United States. The results are presented in form of maps displaying the strength of the relationship at different timescales, from daily to annual, and at multiple atmospheric levels, from 10m to 500 mb. The results of the analysis are used to provide context for regional wind climate projections based on 21st century AOGCM simulations.

Winter Precipitation in North America and the Pacific-North America Pattern in GEOS-S2Sv2 Seasonal Hindcast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Zhao; Molod, Andrea; Schubert, Siegfried

2018-01-01

Reliable prediction of precipitation remains one of the most pivotal and complex challenges in seasonal forecasting. Previous studies show that various large-scale climate modes, such as ENSO, PNA and NAO play significant role in winter precipitation variability over the Northern America. The influences are most pronounced in years of strong indices of such climate modes. This study evaluates model bias, predictability and forecast skills of monthly winter precipitation in GEOS5-S2S 2.0 retrospective forecast from 1981 to 2016, with emphasis on the forecast skill of precipitation over North America during the extreme events of ENSO, PNA and NAO by applying EOF and composite analysis.

Stratospheric ozone levels and their role for the dynamic response to volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthers, Stefan; Anet, Julien G.; Raible, Christoph C.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Arfeuille, Florian; Peter, Tom; Rozanov, Eugene; Shapiro, Alexander; Beer, Juerg; Steinhilber, Friedhelm; Brugnara, Yuri; Schmutz, Werner

2013-04-01

The role of different background ozone climatologies for the dynamic response to tropical volcanic eruptions is analyzed using an ensemble of simulation with the atmospheric-chemistry-ocean model SOCOL/MPIOM. In this sensitivity study a single tropical eruption of Tambora-size is applied to an ensemble with either pre-industrial ozone concentrations or present day concentrations respectively. The analysis focuses on the characteristic of the Northern Europe winter warming pattern following the eruption, that has been identified after several eruptions in observations and in proxy data. The sensitivity study reveals a higher probability for a large and significant winter warming pattern with pre-industrial ozone levels, when the dynamic response of the chemistry to the eruption is disabled in the model. The positive temperature anomaly is driven by a positive NAO-like pressure pattern that lead to the advection of warm Atlantic air towards Northern Europe. With present day concentrations winter warmings are also found in some ensemble members, but overall the probability is strongly reduced. It is shown, that with pre-industial day ozone concentrations the coupling between positive anomalies of the polar vortex and the zonal wind in the troposphere is more effective, which could explain the higher likelihood of positive NAO-like pressure patterns and positive temperature anomalies in Northern Europe.

An abrupt slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1915-1935 induced by solar forcing in a coupled GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, P.; Song, Y.; Yu, Y.; Liu, H.

2014-06-01

In this study, we explore an abrupt change of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) apparent in the historical run simulated by the second version of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model - Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2). The abrupt change is noted during the period from 1915 to 1935, in which the maximal AMOC value is weakened beyond 6 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1). The abrupt signal first occurs at high latitudes (north of 46° N), then shifts gradually to middle latitudes (∼35° N) three to seven years later. The weakened AMOC can be explained in the following. The weak total solar irradiance (TIS) during early twentieth century decreases pole-to-equator temperature gradient in the upper stratosphere. The North polar vortex is weakened, which forces a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase during 1905-1914. The negative phase of NAO induces anomalous easterly winds in 50-70° N belts, which decrease the release of heat fluxes from ocean to atmosphere and induce surface warming over these regions. Through the surface ice-albedo feedback, the warming may lead to continuously melting sea ice in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait, which results in freshwater accumulation. This can lead to salinity and density reductions and then an abrupt slowdown of AMOC. Moreover, due to increased TIS after 1914, the enhanced Atlantic northward ocean heat transport from low to high latitudes induces an abrupt warming of sea surface temperature or upper ocean temperature in mid-high latitudes, which can also weaken the AMOC. The abrupt change of AMOC also appears in the PiControl run, which is associated with the lasting negative NAO phases due to natural variability.

On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2013-01-01

In this TP, the trend in North Atlantic basin TC activity, especially as related to the determination of the length of season (LOS) and its possible association with warming surface-air and sea-surface temperature, is revisited. In particular, examined are: (1) the trend in TC activity for the yearly intervals 1945-1965, 1966-1994, and 1995-2012 for TCs having duration NSD greater or equal to 0.25 day, less than 2 days, greater than or equal to 2 days, greater than or equal to 4 days, and greater than or equal to 8 days; (2) the latitudinal and longitudinal genesis locations of the short-lived TC (defined herein as those TCs having duration NSD less than 2 days) for the three yearly intervals; (3) the first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and LOS based on TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (4) the relationship between FSD, LSD, and LOS for TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (5) the surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the interval 1945-2012; (6) the relationship of FSD, LSD, and LOS against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; (7) the relationship of TC activity against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; and (8) the relationship of TC activity against FSD and LOS. This TP represents an update to an earlier study by Wilson concerning the length of the yearly hurricane season.

Response of planktonic cladocerans (Class: Branchiopoda) to short-term changes in environmental variables in the surface waters of the Bay of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

d'Elbée, Jean; Lalanne, Yann; Castège, Iker; Bru, Noelle; D'Amico, Frank

2014-08-01

From January 2001 to December 2008, 73 surface plankton samples and 45 vertical profiles of sea temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH were collected on a monthly basis from a single sampling station located in the Bay of Biscay (43°37N; 1°43W) (North-East Atlantic). Two types of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indexes were included in the data set and submitted to a Canonical Correspondence Analysis and Spearman non-parametric test. Significant breaks and levels in time series were tested using a data segmentation method. The temperature range varies from 11 °C to 25 °C. It begins to rise from April until August and then decline. Low salinity values occur in mid-spring (<34 PSU) and high values (>36 PSU) in autumn. Dissolved oxygen mean values were around 8 mg/l. In summer, when temperature and salinity are high, surface water layer is always accompanied with a significant deoxygenation, and the process reverses in winter. pH mean values range was 7.78-8.33. Seasonal and inter-annual variations of the two NAO indexes are strongly correlated to one another, but do not correlate with any hydrological or biological variable. Five of the seven cladocerans species which are present in the Bay of Biscay were found in this study. There is a strong pattern in species succession throughout the year: Evadne nordmanni is a vernal species, while Penilia avirostris and Pseudevadne tergestina occur mainly in summer and autumn. Evadne spinifera has a maximum abundance in spring, Podon intermedius in autumn, but they both occur throughout the year. However, for some thirty years, the presence of species has tended to become significantly extended throughout the year. During the 2001-2008 period, there was a noticeable decline and even a disappearance of the categories involved in sexual reproduction as well as those involved in parthenogenesis, in favor of non-breeding individuals.

High-Performance Na-O2 Batteries Enabled by Oriented NaO2 Nanowires as Discharge Products.

PubMed

Khajehbashi, S Mohammad B; Xu, Lin; Zhang, Guobin; Tan, Shuangshuang; Zhao, Yan; Wang, Lai-Sen; Li, Jiantao; Luo, Wen; Peng, Dong-Liang; Mai, Liqiang

2018-06-13

Na-O 2 batteries are emerging rechargeable batteries due to their high theoretical energy density and abundant resources, but they suffer from sluggish kinetics due to the formation of large-size discharge products with cubic or irregular particle shapes. Here, we report the unique growth of discharge products of NaO 2 nanowires inside Na-O 2 batteries that significantly boosts the performance of Na-O 2 batteries. For this purpose, a high-spin Co 3 O 4 electrocatalyst was synthesized via the high-temperature oxidation of pure cobalt nanoparticles in an external magnetic field. The discharge products of NaO 2 nanowires are 10-20 nm in diameter and ∼10 μm in length, characteristics that provide facile pathways for electron and ion transfer. With these nanowires, Na-O 2 batteries have surpassed 400 cycles with a fixed capacity of 1000 mA h g -1 , an ultra-low over-potential of ∼60 mV during charging, and near-zero over-potential during discharging. This strategy not only provides a unique way to control the morphology of discharge products to achieve high-performance Na-O 2 batteries but also opens up the opportunity to explore growing nanowires in novel conditions.

Influence of the North Atlantic dipole on climate changes over Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serykh, I. V.

2016-11-01

In this paper, some hydrophysical and meteorological characteristics of negative (1948-1976 and 1999-2015) and positive (1977-1998) phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) in the North Atlantic and Eurasia are constructed and investigated. Specifically, the near-surface temperature, sea-level atmospheric pressure, wind speed, heat content of the upper 700 m ocean layer, water temperature and salinity at various depths, the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere are analyzed. The fields obtained are in good agreement and complement each other. This gives important information about the hydrometeorological conditions in the region under study. Analysis of these data has shown that in the upper 1000 m North Atlantic layer there is a thermal dipole which can be interpreted as an oceanic analog of the atmospheric North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). An index of the North Atlantic Dipole (NAD) as the difference between the mean heat contents in the upper 700 m oceanic layer between the regions (50°-70° N; 60°-10° W) and (20°-40° N; 80°-30° W) is proposed. A possible physical mechanism of the internal oscillations with a quasi-60-year period in the North Atlantics- Eurasia system of ocean-atmosphere interactions is discussed.

Recent drying of the Fertile Crescent: natural or externally forced?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelley, Colin

2014-05-01

There has been a reduction in observed precipitation over the greater Mediterranean region since the middle of the 20th Century. Recent studies suggest that while anthropogenic forcing has already begun to assert itself in recent decades, the preponderance of the winter drying trend is attributable to the large natural multidecadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), while over the eastern Mediterranean, the anthropogenic, or forced drying signal is more clearly evident. This forced drying is projected to increase during the 21st Century according to the newest global climate models and this aridification would present significant challenges for a region that is already water-stressed. Although the Fertile Crescent is historically known for its agricultural prosperity, the severity and persistence of the recent multiyear drought in Syria, directly prior to the 2011 uprising there, leads us to ask whether this is evidence of emerging global warming influence. This drought exacerbated existing water insecurity, resulting in an agricultural collapse and a mass migration of rural drought refugees to the urban areas in Syria's west. This migration followed the previous influx of Iragi refugees and combined with strong natural population growth to place a severe strain on resources. Here we examine observations of precipitation and temperature, both gridded and stations, along with simulations and projections from the newest global climate models, to estimate the forced contribution to the recent Syrian drought, and assess the uncertainty in future drying according to the models. We find that this region has experienced a long-term downward trend in precipitation, and a concomitant increase in temperature, serving to further dry the soil, and in surface pressure. We find that the shift in the distributions of three-year running means of surface pressure and precipitation due to the forcing make severe events such as the recent Syrian drought several times more likely. Next we examine the moisture budget in the models and compare with the ground truth of atmospheric reanalyses to determine the relative contributions from the mean flow and the transient eddies. We find that the mean and transient patterns of moisture budget change over the eastern Mediterranean under forcing resemble the patterns of the NAO-induced moisture budget anomaly, but that over the greater Mediterranean there are distinct differences. Under forced moisture budget change, as noted in a recent study, the mean flow serves to strongly dry the greater Mediterranean, with a smaller contribution from the transients. For the eastern Mediterranean however, the transients oppose the drying by the mean flow, under climate change and under a positive phase of the NAO. These results suggest that anthropogenically forced drying of the Fertile Crescent may already be underway, primarily through a poleward shift in the mean flow, and represent a step forward toward a better understanding of the mechanisms associated with eastern Mediterranean hydroclimate change and variability and how they compare.

Reconstruction of rainfall in Zafra (southwest Spain) from 1750 to 1840 from documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Fernández, M. I.; Gallego, M. C.; Domínguez-Castro, F.; Vaquero, J. M.; Moreno González, J. M.; Castillo Durán, J.

2011-11-01

This work presents the first high-resolution reconstruction of rainfall in southwestern Spain during the period 1750-1840. The weather descriptions used are weekly reports describing the most relevant events that occurred in the Duchy of Feria. An index was defined to characterise the weekly rainfall. Monthly indices were obtained by summing the corresponding weekly indices, obtaining cumulative monthly rainfall indices. The reconstruction method consisted of establishing a linear correlation between the monthly rainfall index and monthly instrumental data (1960-1990). The correlation coefficients were greater than 0.80 for all months. The rainfall reconstruction showed major variability similar to natural variability. The reconstructed rainfall series in Zafra was compared with the rainfall series of Cadiz, Gibraltar and Lisbon for the period 1750-1840, with all four series found to have a similar pattern. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the winter rainfall reconstruction was found to behave similarly to that of modern times. Other studies described are of the SLP values over the entire North Atlantic in the months with extreme values of rainfall, and unusual meteorological events (hail, frost, storms and snowfall) in the reports of the Duchy of Feria.

Drought variability in six catchments in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwok-Pan, Chun; Onof, Christian; Wheater, Howard

2010-05-01

Drought is fundamentally related to consistent low precipitation levels. Changes in global and regional drought patterns are suggested by numerous recent climate change studies. However, most of the climate change adaptation measures are at a catchment scale, and the development of a framework for studying persistence in precipitation is still at an early stage. Two stochastic approaches for modelling drought severity index (DSI) are proposed to investigate possible changes in droughts in six catchments in the UK. They are the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the generalised linear model (GLM) approach. Results of ARIMA modelling show that mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index are important climate variables for short term drought forecasts, whereas relative humidity is not a significant climate variable despite its high correlation with the DSI series. By simulating rainfall series, the generalised linear model (GLM) approach can provide the probability density function of the DSI. GLM simulations indicate that the changes in the 10th and 50th quantiles of drought events are more noticeable than in the 90th extreme droughts. The possibility of extending the GLM approach to support risk-based water management is also discussed.

Relationship between Climate Variability, Wildfire Risk, and Wildfire Occurrence in Wildland-Urban Interface of the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Jia, S.; Nghiem, S. V.

2017-12-01

As housing units in or near wildlands have grown, the wildland-urban interface (WUI) contain at present approximately one-third of all housing in the contiguous US. Wildfires are a part of the natural cycle in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) but the increasing trend of WUI has made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. The expansion of WUI has elevated wildfire risks by increasing the chance of human caused ignitions and past fire suppression in the area. Previous studies on climate variability have shown that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts and has suffered from severe wildfires in the recent decade. Therefore, assessing the increased vulnerability to the wildfire in WUI is crucial for proactive adaptation under climate change. Our previous study has shown that a strong correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperature was found during March-June in the SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry spring conditions, combined with suppression of winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risk throughout the summer and fall. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate the connections between climate variability and wildfire danger characteristics. This study aims to identify climate variability using multiple climate indices such as NAO, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation closely related with droughts in the SWUS region. Correlation between the variability and fire frequency and severity in WUI were examined. Also, we investigated climate variability and its relationship on local wildfire potential using both Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and Fire Weather Index (FWI) which have been used to assessing wildfire potential in the U.S.A and Canada, respectively. We examined the long-term variability of the fire potential indices and relationships between the indices and historical occurrence in WUI using multi-decadal reanalysis data sets. Following our analysis, we investigated joint impacts of multiple climate indices on droughts and human activities in the WUI for regional wildfire potential.

Implications of multi-scale sea level and climate variability for coastal resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karamperidou, Christina; Engel, Victor; Lall, Upmanu; Stabenau, Erik; Smith, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

While secular changes in regional sea levels and their implications for coastal zone management have been studied extensively, less attention is being paid to natural fluctuations in sea levels, whose interaction with a higher mean level could have significant impacts on low-lying areas, such as wetlands. Here, the long record of sea level at Key West, FL is studied in terms of both the secular trend and the multi-scale sea level variations. This analysis is then used to explore implications for the Everglades National Park (ENP), which is recognized internationally for its ecological significance, and is the site of the largest wetland restoration project in the world. Very shallow topographic gradients (3–6 cm per km) make the region susceptible to small changes in sea level. Observations of surface water levels from a monitoring network within ENP exhibit both the long-term trends and the interannual-to-(multi)decadal variability that are observed in the Key West record. Water levels recorded at four long-term monitoring stations within ENP exhibit increasing trends approximately equal to or larger than the long-term trend at Key West. Time- and frequency-domain analyses highlight the potential influence of climate mechanisms, such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), on Key West sea levels and marsh water levels, and the potential modulation of their influence by the background state of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures. In particular, the Key West sea levels are found to be positively correlated with the NAO index, while the two series exhibit high spectral power during the transition to a cold Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The correlation between the Key West sea levels and the NINO3 Index reverses its sign in coincidence with a reversal of the AMO phase. Water levels in ENP are also influenced by precipitation and freshwater releases from the northern boundary of the Park. The analysis of both climate variability and climate change in such wetlands is needed to inform management practices in coastal wetland zones around the world.

Regional influence of decadal to multidecadal Atlantic Oscillations during the last two millennia in Morocco, inferred from two high resolution δ18O speleothem records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Brahim, Yassine; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Khodri, Myriam; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Cruz, Francisco W.; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cheng, Hai

2017-04-01

Climate projections predict substantial increase of extreme heats and drought occurrences during the coming decades in Morocco. It is however not clear what can be attributed to natural climate variability and to anthropogenic forcing, as hydroclimate variations observed in areas such as Morocco are highly influenced by the Atlantic climate modes. Since observational data sets are too short to resolve properly natural modes of variability acting on decadal to multidecadal timescales, high resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are the only alternative to reconstruct climate variability in the remote past. Herein, we present two high resolution and well dated speleothems oxygen isotope (δ18O) records sampled from Chaara and Ifoulki caves (located in Northeastern and Southwestern Morocco respectively) to investigate hydroclimate variations during the last 2000 years. Our results are supported by a monitoring network of δ18O in precipitation from 17 stations in Morocco. The new paleoclimate records are discussed in the light of existing continental and marine paleoclimate proxies in Morocco to identify significant correlations at various lead times with the main reconstructed oceanic and atmospheric variability modes and possible climate teleconnections that have potentially influenced the climate during the last two millennia in Morocco. The results reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords. Evidence of dry conditions exist during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) period and the Climate Warm Period (CWP) and humid conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) period. Statistical analyses suggest that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last two millennia. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively. Keywords: Speleothems, δ18O, Morocco, Hydroclimate, AMO, NAO.

The climatic implications of the Holocene floods in the north-western Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, S.; Shukla, A. D.; Bartarya, S.; Marh, B.; Juyal, N.

2016-12-01

Understanding the growing trend of extreme hydrological events in response to climate variabilities is a major area of interest in the climate change science. More important so as the predictions suggest increased frequency and/or magnitude of floods in the Himalayan region due to more intense/frequent coupling between the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the mid-latitude westerlies. In view of this, studies pertaining to the geological evidence of extreme hydrological events (paleofloods) become important as these not only extend beyond the instrumental records but ensures better understanding of the pattern of river response to the extreme climate variability.The Satluj River in the north-western Himalaya is infamous for its history of recurrent and devastating floods for which there is no data beyond the historical record. The present study in the middle Satluj valley is a contribution towards expanding the cognizance of the climate and geomorphic processes responsible for the Holocene extreme events. Based on sedimentology and grain size variability a total of 24 flood events of increasing magnitude are identified. The geochemical data indicate that the flood sediments were mostly generated and transported from the Higher Himalayan Crystalline with some contribution from the Trans-Himalaya. The optical chronology allow us to identify four major flood clusters which are dated between 13-11 ka; 8-4 ka; 4-2 ka and < 2 ka respectively. Climatically, these correspond to the cooler/relatively drier climatic condition (weak monsoon) and broadly correlate with the phases of negative Arctic Oscillation (‒AO) and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO).

On the origin of multi-decadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobashi, T.; Shindell, D. T.; Kodera, K.; Box, J. E.; Nakaegawa, T.; Kawamura, K.

2012-11-01

The surface temperature of the Greenland ice sheet is among the most important climate variables for assessing how climate change may impact human societies associated with accelerating sea level rise. However, the causes of multi-decadal-to-centennial temperature changes in Greenland are not well understood, largely owing to short observational records. To examine the causes of the Greenland temperature variability, we calculated the Greenland temperature anomalies (GTA(G-NH)) over the past 800 yr by subtracting the standardised NH temperature from the standardised Greenland temperature. It decomposes the Greenland temperature variation into background climate (NH); Polar amplification; and Regional variability (GTA(G-NH)). The Central Greenland polar amplification factor as expressed by the variance ratio = Greenland/NH is 2.6 over the past 161 yr, and 3.3-4.2 over the past 800 yr. The GTA explains 31-35% of the variation of Greenland temperature in the multi-decadal-to-centennial time scale over the past 800 yr. Another orthogonal component of the Greenland and NH temperatures, GTP(G+NH) (Greenland temperature plus = standardized Greenland temperature + standardized NH temperature) exhibited the multi-decadal variations that were likely induced by large volcanic eruptions, increasing greenhouse gasses, and internal variation of climate. We found that the GTA(G-NH) has been influenced by solar-induced changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as those produced by North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO). Climate modelling indicates that the anomaly is also likely linked to solar-paced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and to associated changes in northward oceanic heat transport.

Revealing the Reaction Mechanism of Na–O 2 Batteries using Environmental Transmission Electron Microscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kwak, Won -Jin; Luo, Langli; Jung, Hun -Gi

Due to its high energy efficiency, sodium-oxygen (Na-O 2) batteries have been extensively studied recently. One of the critical challenges for the development of the Na-O 2 battery is the elucidation of the reaction mechanism, the reaction products, and thestructural and chemical evolution of reaction product as well as their correlation with the battery performance. Herein, in-situ TEM was employed to probe the reaction mechanism and the structural evolution of the discharge products in Na-O 2 batteries. The discharge product is featured by the formation of both cubic and conformal NaO 2. It has been noticed that the impingement ofmore » reaction product (NaO 2) can lead to the coarsening of the particle through coalescence. We also investigated the stability of the discharge product, noticing that the reaction product NaO 2 is stable in the case of solid electrolyte. Here, the present work provide unprecedented insight for the development of the Na-O 2 batteries.« less

Revealing the Reaction Mechanism of Na–O 2 Batteries using Environmental Transmission Electron Microscopy

DOE PAGES

Kwak, Won -Jin; Luo, Langli; Jung, Hun -Gi; ...

2018-01-15

Due to its high energy efficiency, sodium-oxygen (Na-O 2) batteries have been extensively studied recently. One of the critical challenges for the development of the Na-O 2 battery is the elucidation of the reaction mechanism, the reaction products, and thestructural and chemical evolution of reaction product as well as their correlation with the battery performance. Herein, in-situ TEM was employed to probe the reaction mechanism and the structural evolution of the discharge products in Na-O 2 batteries. The discharge product is featured by the formation of both cubic and conformal NaO 2. It has been noticed that the impingement ofmore » reaction product (NaO 2) can lead to the coarsening of the particle through coalescence. We also investigated the stability of the discharge product, noticing that the reaction product NaO 2 is stable in the case of solid electrolyte. Here, the present work provide unprecedented insight for the development of the Na-O 2 batteries.« less

Instabilities in the relation between European Weather Types and mid-latitude circulation in the Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez Castro, Maria del Carmen; Gallego, David; Trigo, Ricardo M.; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Ribera, Pedro

2015-04-01

Recently, a new instrumental index (Westerly Index or "WI") measuring the frequency of the westerlies over the English Channel has been developed for the period 1685-1750 (Wheeler et al. 2009) and further extended to the present (Barriopedro et al. 2014). This index holds a climatic signal similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the temperature and precipitation over large areas of Europe. Nevertheless we are confident that the WI offers two major advantages: first the WI signatures are not restricted to the winter being significant during the entire year and second, the WI does not rely on proxy data and, as such, it is less prone to the uncertainties associated to the calibration process of the NAO reconstructions. During the last decades, regional mid-latitude circulation has also been quantified objectively through the widespread use of so-called Weather Types (WT). WT are used to identify and classify the different patterns of Sea Level Pressure configurations originating particular weather in a given area. In consequence, WT over most Western Europe should be closely related to atmospheric circulation indexes such as the WI. Here we adopted a similar WT classification of the classical WTs developed empirically by Hubert Lamb for the UK and automated by Jones et al. (1993) but centered at the English Channel latitudinal band to be compatible with the window used to define the WI (Wheeler et al., 2009). In this work we compare the long-term (1850-2003) monthly values of WI with the corresponding monthly frequency of directional weather types in the WI area. As expected, we found significant positive (negative) correlation values with WTs dominated by a westerly (easterly) component but interestingly, some quasi periodic intervals of lack of correlation have been found, suggesting an oscillating behaviour on the lack of stationarity between the large-scale north Atlantic circulation and local weather types. Wheeler, D.; García-Herrera, R.; Wilkinson, C.W. and Ward, C., 2009: Atmospheric circulation and storminess derived from Royal Navy logbooks: 1685 to 1750, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9732-x Barriopedro, D.; Gallego, D.; Alvarez-Castro, M.C.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Wheeler, D.; Peña-Ortiz, C.; Barbosa, S.M.,2014: Witnessing North Atlantic westerlies variability from ships' logbooks (1685-2008). Clim Dym, 43, 939-955 Jones, P. D., Hulme, M., and Briffa, K. R. 1993: A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme, Int. J. Climatol., 13, 655-663.

Bivalves as indicators of environmental variation and potential anthropogenic impacts in the southern Barents Sea

PubMed Central

Carroll, Michael L.; Johnson, Beverly J.; Henkes, Gregory A.; McMahon, Kelton W.; Voronkov, Andrey; Ambrose, William G.; Denisenko, Stanislav G.

2009-01-01

Identifying patterns and drivers of natural variability in populations is necessary to gauge potential effects of climatic change and the expected increases in commercial activities in the Arctic on communities and ecosystems. We analyzed growth rates and shell geochemistry of the circumpolar Greenland smooth cockle, Serripes groenlandicus, from the southern Barents Sea over almost 70 years between 1882 and 1968. The datasets were calibrated via annually-deposited growth lines, and growth, stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C), and trace elemental (Mg, Sr, Ba, Mn) patterns were linked to environmental variations on weekly to decadal scales. Standardized growth indices revealed an oscillatory growth pattern with a multi-year periodicity, which was inversely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), and positively related to local river discharge. Up to 60% of the annual variability in the Ba/Ca could be explained by variations in river discharge at the site closest to the rivers, but the relationship disappeared at a more distant location. Patterns of δ18O, δ13C, and Sr/Ca together provide evidence that bivalve growth ceases at elevated temperatures during the fall and recommences at the coldest temperatures in the early spring, with the implication that food, rather than temperature, is the primary driver of bivalve growth. The multi-proxy approach of combining the annually integrated information from the growth results and higher resolution geochemical results yielded a robust interpretation of biophysical coupling in the region over temporal and spatial scales. We thus demonstrate that sclerochronological proxies can be useful retrospective analytical tools for establishing a baseline of ecosystem variability in assessing potential combined impacts of climatic change and increasing commercial activities on Arctic communities. PMID:19394657

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also addressed.

Control of Oscillation Patterns in a Symmetric Coupled Biological Oscillator System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takamatsu, Atsuko; Tanaka, Reiko; Yamamoto, Takatoki; Fujii, Teruo

2003-08-01

A chain of three-oscillator system was constructed with living biological oscillators of phasmodial slime mold, Physarum polycehalum and the oscillation patterns were analyzed by the symmetric Hopf bifurcation theory using group theory. Multi-stability of oscillation patterns was observed, even when the coupling strength was fixed. This suggests that the coupling strength is not an effective parameter to obtain a desired oscillation pattern among the multiple patterns. Here we propose a method to control oscillation patterns using resonance to external stimulus and demonstrate pattern switching induced by frequency resonance given to only one of oscillators in the system.

Nitrogen Flux in Watersheds: The Role of Soil Distributions and Climate in Nitrogen Flux to the Coastal Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showers, W. J.; Reyes, M. M.; Genna, B. J.

2009-12-01

Quantifying the flux of nitrate from different landscape sources in watersheds is important to understand the increased flux of nitrogen to coastal ecosystems. Recent technological advances in chemical sensor networks has demonstrated that chemical variability in aquatic environments are chronically under-sampled, and that many nutrient monitoring programs with monthly or daily sampling rates are inadequate to characterize the dominate seasonal, daily or semi-diurnal fluxes in watersheds. The RiverNet program has measured the nitrate flux in the Neuse River Basin, NC on a 15 minute interval over the past eight years. Significant diurnal variation has been observed in nitrate concentrations during high and low flow periods associated with waste water treatment plants in urban watersheds that are not present in agricultural watersheds. Discharge and N flux in the basin also has significant inter-annual variations associated with El Nino oscillations modified by the North Atlantic oscillation. Positive JMA and NAO indexes are associated with increased groundwater levels, nutrient fluxes, and estuary fish kills. To understand how climate oscillation affect discharge and nutrient fluxes, we have monitored runoff/drainages and groundwater inputs adjacent to a large waste application field over the past 4 years, and used the nitrate inputs as a tracer. Surface water run off is well correlated to precipitation patterns and is the largest nutrient flux into the river. Groundwater inputs are variable spatially and temporally, and are controlled by geology and groundwater levels. Hydric soil spatial distributions are an excellent predictor of nutrient transport across landscapes, and is related to the distribution of biogeochemical “hotspots” The isotopic composition of oxygen and nitrogen in dissolved nitrate indicate that sources change with discharge state, and that atmospherically deposited nitrogen is only important to river fluxes in forested and urban watersheds. These results also indicate that the contribution of wastewater treatment plants from urban watersheds has been greatly under-estimated in current models. Prediction of future changes in discharge and nutrient flux by the modeling of climate oscillations has important implications for water resources policy and drought management for public policy and utility managers.

Variations in suicide method and in suicide occurrence by season and day of the week in Russia and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Northwestern Russia: a retrospective population-based mortality study.

PubMed

Sumarokov, Yury A; Brenn, Tormod; Kudryavtsev, Alexander V; Nilssen, Odd

2015-09-23

Suicide is an important world health issue, especially in territories inhabited by indigenous people. This investigated differences in suicide rates, suicide methods, and suicide occurrence by month and day of the week among the indigenous and non-indigenous populations of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and to compare the findings from the NAO with national Russian statistics. In this retrospective population-based mortality study we investigated all suicides that occurred in the NAO in 2002-2012 (N = 252). Suicide method and the month and day of the week suicide occurred was taken from autopsy reports and disaggregated by ethnic group (indigenous and non-indigenous) and sex. Data from the NAO were then compared with national data from the Russian Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat). Hanging was the most common suicide method in the NAO in both indigenous and non-indigenous populations. The proportion of suicides by hanging among males was lower in the NAO than in national data (69.3 vs 86.2 %), but the inverse was true for females (86.5 vs 74.9 %). Suicide by firearm and by cutting was significantly higher among the indigenous population in the NAO when compared with national data. Peaks in suicide occurrence were observed in May and September in the NAO, whereas national data showed only one peak in May. Suicide occurrence in the indigenous population of the NAO was highest in April, while the non-indigenous population showed peaks in May and September. Suicide occurrence in the NAO was highest on Fridays; in national data this occurrence was highest on Mondays. We showed different relative frequencies of suicide by hanging, cutting, and firearm, as well as different suicide occurrence by month and day of the week in the NAO compared with Russia as a whole. These results can be used to plan suicide prevention activities in the Russian Arctic.

Mechanistic origin of low polarization in aprotic Na-O2 batteries.

PubMed

Ma, Shunchao; McKee, William C; Wang, Jiawei; Guo, Limin; Jansen, Martin; Xu, Ye; Peng, Zhangquan

2017-05-21

Research interest in aprotic sodium-air (Na-O 2 ) batteries is growing because of their considerably high theoretical specific energy and potentially better reversibility than lithium-air (Li-O 2 ) batteries. While Li 2 O 2 has been unequivocally identified as the major discharge product in Li-O 2 batteries containing relatively stable electrolytes, a multitude of discharge products, including NaO 2 , Na 2 O 2 and Na 2 O 2 ·2H 2 O, have been reported for Na-O 2 batteries and the corresponding cathodic electrochemistry remains incompletely understood. Herein, we provide molecular-level insights into the key mechanistic differences between Na-O 2 and Li-O 2 batteries based on gold electrodes in strictly dry, aprotic dimethyl sulfoxide electrolytes through a combination of in situ spectroelectrochemistry and density functional theory based modeling. While like Li-O 2 batteries, the formation of oxygen reduction products (i.e., O 2 - , NaO 2 and Na 2 O 2 ) in Na-O 2 batteries depends critically on the electrode potential, two factors lead to a better reversibility of Na-O 2 electrochemistry, and are therefore highly beneficial to a viable rechargeable metal-air battery design: (i) only O 2 - and NaO 2 , and no Na 2 O 2 , form down to as low as ∼1.5 V vs. Na/Na + during discharge; (ii) solid NaO 2 is quite soluble and its formation and oxidation can proceed through micro-reversible EC (a chemical reaction of the product after the electron transfer) and CE (a chemical reaction preceding the electron transfer) processes, respectively, with O 2 - as the key intermediate.

A Picea crassifolia Tree-Ring Width-Based Temperature Reconstruction for the Mt. Dongda Region, Northwest China, and Its Relationship to Large-Scale Climate Forcing

PubMed Central

Liu, Yu; Sun, Changfeng; Li, Qiang; Cai, Qiufang

2016-01-01

The historical May–October mean temperature since 1831 was reconstructed based on tree-ring width of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) collected on Mt. Dongda, North of the Hexi Corridor in Northwest China. The regression model explained 46.6% of the variance of the instrumentally observed temperature. The cold periods in the reconstruction were 1831–1889, 1894–1901, 1908–1934 and 1950–1952, and the warm periods were 1890–1893, 1902–1907, 1935–1949 and 1953–2011. During the instrumental period (1951–2011), an obvious warming trend appeared in the last twenty years. The reconstruction displayed similar patterns to a temperature reconstruction from the east-central Tibetan Plateau at the inter-decadal timescale, indicating that the temperature reconstruction in this study was a reliable proxy for Northwest China. It was also found that the reconstruction series had good consistency with the Northern Hemisphere temperature at a decadal timescale. Multi-taper method spectral analysis detected some low- and high-frequency cycles (2.3–2.4-year, 2.8-year, 3.4–3.6-year, 5.0-year, 9.9-year and 27.0-year). Combining these cycles, the relationship of the low-frequency change with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) suggested that the reconstructed temperature variations may be related to large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variations. Major volcanic eruptions were partly reflected in the reconstructed temperatures after high-pass filtering; these events promoted anomalous cooling in this region. The results of this study not only provide new information for assessing the long-term temperature changes in the Hexi Corridor of Northwest China, but also further demonstrate the effects of large-scale atmospheric-oceanic circulation on climate change in Northwest China. PMID:27509206

Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Terrestrial Gross Primary Production along the Southern California Current.

PubMed

Reimer, Janet J; Vargas, Rodrigo; Rivas, David; Gaxiola-Castro, Gilberto; Hernandez-Ayon, J Martin; Lara-Lara, Ruben

2015-01-01

Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by coastal upwelling (changes in sea surface temperature) may be important for local-to-regional water-limited ecosystems where plants may benefit from air moisture transported from the ocean to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use satellite-derived observations to test potential connections between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in regions with strong coastal upwelling and terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) across the Baja California Peninsula. This region is characterized by an arid/semiarid climate along the southern California Current. We found that SST was correlated with the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR; as a proxy for GPP) with lags ranging from 0 to 5 months. In contrast ENSO was not as strongly related with fPAR as SST in these coastal ecosystems. Our results show the importance of local-scale changes in SST during upwelling events, to explain the variability in GPP in coastal, water-limited ecosystems. The response of GPP to SST was spatially-dependent: colder SST in the northern areas increased GPP (likely by influencing fog formation), while warmer SST at the southern areas was associated to higher GPP (as SST is in phase with precipitation patterns). Interannual trends in fPAR are also spatially variable along the Baja California Peninsula with increasing secular trends in subtropical regions, decreasing trends in the most arid region, and no trend in the semi-arid regions. These findings suggest that studies and ecosystem process based models should consider the lateral influence of local-scale ocean processes that could influence coastal ecosystem productivity.

Sea Surface Temperature Influence on Terrestrial Gross Primary Production along the Southern California Current

PubMed Central

Reimer, Janet J.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Rivas, David; Gaxiola-Castro, Gilberto; Hernandez-Ayon, J. Martin; Lara-Lara, Ruben

2015-01-01

Some land and ocean processes are related through connections (and synoptic-scale teleconnections) to the atmosphere. Synoptic-scale atmospheric (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]) decadal cycles are known to influence the global terrestrial carbon cycle. Potentially, smaller scale land-ocean connections influenced by coastal upwelling (changes in sea surface temperature) may be important for local-to-regional water-limited ecosystems where plants may benefit from air moisture transported from the ocean to terrestrial ecosystems. Here we use satellite-derived observations to test potential connections between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) in regions with strong coastal upwelling and terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) across the Baja California Peninsula. This region is characterized by an arid/semiarid climate along the southern California Current. We found that SST was correlated with the fraction of photosynthetic active radiation (fPAR; as a proxy for GPP) with lags ranging from 0 to 5 months. In contrast ENSO was not as strongly related with fPAR as SST in these coastal ecosystems. Our results show the importance of local-scale changes in SST during upwelling events, to explain the variability in GPP in coastal, water-limited ecosystems. The response of GPP to SST was spatially-dependent: colder SST in the northern areas increased GPP (likely by influencing fog formation), while warmer SST at the southern areas was associated to higher GPP (as SST is in phase with precipitation patterns). Interannual trends in fPAR are also spatially variable along the Baja California Peninsula with increasing secular trends in subtropical regions, decreasing trends in the most arid region, and no trend in the semi-arid regions. These findings suggest that studies and ecosystem process based models should consider the lateral influence of local-scale ocean processes that could influence coastal ecosystem productivity. PMID:25923109

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of observed precipitation over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq; Athar, H.

2017-10-01

The precipitation variability, trends, and teleconnections are studied over six administrative regions of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan or GB, Azad Jammu and Kashmir or AJK, Khyber Pakhtoonkhawa or KPK, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan) on multiple timescales for the period of recent 38 years (1976-2013) using precipitation data of 42 stations and circulation indices datasets (Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Arctic Oscillation [AO], El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO], and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation [QBO]). The summer monsoon season received the highest precipitation, amounting to 45%, whereas the winter and pre-monsoon (post-monsoon) seasons contributed 30 and 20% (5%), respectively, of the annual total precipitation. Positive percentile changes were observed in GB, KPK, Punjab, and Balochistan regions during pre-monsoon season and in Balochistan region during post-monsoon season in second half as compared to first half of 38-year period. The Mann-Kendall test revealed increasing trends for the period of 1995-2013 as compared to period of 1976-1994 for entire Pakistan during monsoon season and on annual timescale. A significant influence of ENSO was observed in all the four seasons in Balochistan, KPK, Punjab, and AJK regions during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. This study not only offers an understanding of precipitation variability linkages with large-scale circulations and trends, but also it contributes as a resource document for policy makers to take measures for adaptation and mitigation of climate change and its impacts with special focus on precipitation over different administrative regions of Pakistan.

Analysis of monthly, winter, and annual temperatures in Zagreb, Croatia, from 1864 to 2010: the 7.7-year cycle and the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Asok K.; Ogrin, Darko

2016-02-01

Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity.

Speleothem records decadal to multidecadal hydroclimate variations in southwestern Morocco during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Brahim, Yassine; Cheng, Hai; Sifeddine, Abdelfettah; Wassenburg, Jasper A.; Cruz, Francisco W.; Khodri, Myriam; Sha, Lijuan; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Beraaouz, El Hassane; Apaéstegui, James; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine

2017-10-01

This study presents the first well-dated high resolution stable isotope (δ18 O and δ13 C) and trace element (Mg and Sr) speleothem records from southwestern Morocco covering the last 1000 yrs. Our records reveal substantial decadal to multidecadal swings between dry and humid periods, consistent with regional paleorecords with prevailing dry conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), wetter conditions during the second part of the Little Ice Age (LIA), and a trend towards dry conditions during the current warm period. These coherent regional climate signals suggest common climate controls. Statistical analyses indicate that the climate of southwestern Morocco remained under the combined influence of both the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the last millennium. Interestingly, the generally warmer MCA and colder LIA at longer multidecadal timescales probably influenced the regional climate in North Africa through the influence on Sahara Low which weakened and strengthened the mean moisture inflow from the Atlantic Ocean during the MCA and LIA respectively.

Ionic Dependence of Reversal Voltage of the Light Response in Limulus Ventral Photoreceptors

PubMed Central

Brown, J. E.; Mote, M. I.

1974-01-01

The light-induced current as measured using a voltage clamp (holding voltage at resting potential) is attenuated when sodium ions in the bathing solution, Nao, are replaced by Tris, choline, or Li or when NaCl is replaced by sucrose. After replacement of NaCl by sucrose, the reversal voltage, V rev, for the light response becomes more negative. In this case, the slope of the V rev vs. log Nao near Nao = 425 mM is approximately 55 mV/decade increase of Nao (mean for 13 cells). The slope decreases at lower values of Nao. Choline is not impermeant and partially substitutes for Na; the slope of V rev vs. log Nao is 20 mV/decade (mean for three cells). V rev does not change when Na is replaced by Li. Decreases in the bath concentrations of Ca, Mg, Cl, or K do not affect V rev. When Nao = 212 mM, V rev becomes more positive when Ko is increased. Thus, light induces a change in membrane permeability to Na and probably also to K. PMID:4817353

Detrital events and hydroclimate variability in the Romanian Carpathians during the mid-to-late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, Jack; Ersek, Vasile; Veres, Daniel; Salzmann, Ulrich

2017-07-01

The Romanian Carpathians are located at the confluence of three major atmospheric pressure fields: the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Siberian. Despite its importance for understanding past human impact and climate change, high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of Holocene hydroclimate variability, and in particular records of extreme precipitation events in the area, are rare. Here we present a 7500-year-long high-resolution record of past climatic change and human impact recorded in a peatbog from the Southern Carpathians, integrating palynological, geochemical and sedimentological proxies. Natural climate fluctuations appear to be dominant until 4500 years before present (yr BP), followed by increasing importance of human impact. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses document regular minerogenic deposition within the bog, linked to periods of high precipitation. Such minerogenic depositional events began 4000 yr BP, with increased depositional rates during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during periods of societal upheaval (e.g. the Roman conquest of Dacia). The timing of minerogenic events appears to indicate a teleconnection between major shifts in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and hydroclimate variability in southeastern Europe, with increased minerogenic deposition correlating to low NAO index values. By linking the minerogenic deposition to precipitation variability, we state that this link persists throughout the mid-to-late Holocene.

Spatio-temporal trends in crop damage inform recent climate-mediated expansion of a large boreal herbivore into an agro-ecosystem.

PubMed

Laforge, Michel P; Michel, Nicole L; Brook, Ryan K

2017-11-09

Large-scale climatic fluctuations have caused species range shifts. Moose (Alces alces) have expanded their range southward into agricultural areas previously not considered moose habitat. We found that moose expansion into agro-ecosystems is mediated by broad-scale climatic factors and access to high-quality forage (i.e., crops). We used crop damage records to quantify moose presence across the Canadian Prairies. We regressed latitude of crop damage against North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and crop area to test the hypotheses that NAO-mediated wetland recharge and occurrence of more nutritious crop types would result in more frequent occurrences of crop damage by moose at southerly latitudes. We examined local-scale land use by generating a habitat selection model to test our hypothesis that moose selected for areas of high crop cover in agro-ecosystems. We found that crop damage by moose occurred farther south during dry winters and in years with greater coverage of oilseeds. The results of our analyses support our hypothesis that moose movement into cropland is mediated by high-protein crops, but not by thermoregulatory habitat at the scale examined. We conclude that broad-scale climate combined with changing land-use regimes are causal factors in species' range shifts and are important considerations when studying changing animal distributions.

Influence of Decadal Variability of Global Oceans on South Asian Monsoon and ENSO-Monsoon Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishnamurthy, Lakshmi

This study has investigated the influence of the decadal variability associated with global oceans on South Asian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon relation. The results are based on observational analysis using long records of monsoon rainfall and circulation and coupled general circulation model experiments using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 4 model. The multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) of the observed rainfall over India yields three decadal modes. The first mode (52 year period) is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the second one (21 year) with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the third mode (13 year) with the Atlantic tripole. The existence of these decadal modes in the monsoon was also found in the control simulation of NCAR CCSM4. The regionally de-coupled model experiments performed to isolate the influence of North Pacific and North Atlantic also substantiate the above results. The relation between the decadal modes in the monsoon rainfall with the known decadal modes in global SST is examined. The PDO has significant negative correlation with the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR). The mechanism for PDO-monsoon relation is hypothesized through the seasonal footprinting mechanism and further through Walker and Hadley circulations. The model results also confirm the negative correlation between PDO and IMR and the mechanism through which PDO influences monsoon. Both observational and model analysis show that droughts (floods) are more likely over India than floods (droughts) when ENSO and PDO are in their warm (cold) phase. This study emphasizes the importance of carefully distinguishing the different decadal modes in the SST in the North Atlantic Ocean as they have different impacts on the monsoon. The AMO exhibits significant positive correlation with the IMR while the Atlantic tripole has significant negative correlation with the IMR. The AMO influences the Indian monsoon through atmospheric winds related to high summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode leading to enhanced moisture flow over the Indian subcontinent. The Atlantic tripole mode affects the rainfall over India by enhancing the moisture flow through the equatorial westerly winds associated with the NAO. The model also simulates the positive and negative relation of AMO and tripole, respectively, with the monsoon rainfall. The model also indicates the enhanced moisture flow over India related to the positive phase of AMO through the equatorial westerly flow. But, for the tripole mode, the model indicates flow of moisture through the Bay of Bengal in contrast to observations where it is through the Arabian Sea. The reason for the absence of decadal mode in IMR inherent to the Indian Ocean is also explored. The SSA on dipole mode index (DMI) index reveals three modes. The first two modes are related to the biennial and canonical ENSO at interannual timescale while the third mode varies on decadal timescale and is related to PDO. The wind regression pattern associated with the PDO-IOD mode shows northeasterly winds enhancing the southeasterly flow from the southeastern Indian Ocean related to the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode. The model also shows the influence of canonical ENSO and PDO influence on IOD, although the variance explained by PDO mode is lower in the model relative to observations.

Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

2018-01-01

Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses) of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The ˜ 4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from ˜ 4700 to ˜ 2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between ˜ 2600 and ˜ 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and the historic Iberian-Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between ˜ 1550 and ˜ 450 cal yr BP (˜ 400 to ˜ 1400 CE) and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions and minima in solar activity. Time series analysis performed from local (Botryococcus and total organic carbon) and regional (Mediterranean forest) signals helped us determining the relationship between southern Iberian climate evolution, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, and solar activity. Our multiproxy record shows little evidence of human impact in the area until ˜ 1550 cal yr BP, when evidence of agriculture and livestock grazing occurs. Therefore, climate is the main forcing mechanism controlling environmental change in the area until relatively recently.

Solar wind: A possible factor driving the interannual sea surface temperature tripolar mode over North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Ziniu; Li, Delin

2016-06-01

The effect of solar wind (SW) on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) in boreal winter is examined through an analysis of observational data during 1964-2013. The North Atlantic SSTs show a pronounced meridional tripolar pattern in response to solar wind speed (SWS) variations. This pattern is broadly similar to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of interannual variations in the wintertime SSTs over North Atlantic. The time series of this leading EOF mode of SST shows a significant interannual period, which is the same as that of wintertime SWS. This response also appears as a compact north-south seesaw of sea level pressure and a vertical tripolar structure of zonal wind, which simultaneously resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the overlying atmosphere. As compared with the typical low SWS winters, during the typical high SWS winters, the stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) is evidently enhanced and extends from the stratosphere to the troposphere, even down to the North Atlantic Ocean surface. Notably, the North Atlantic Ocean is an exclusive region in which the SW signal spreads downward from the stratosphere to the troposphere. Thus, it seems that the SW is a possible factor for this North Atlantic SST tripolar mode. The dynamical process of stratosphere-troposphere coupling, together with the global atmospheric electric circuit-cloud microphysical process, probably accounts for the particular downward propagation of the SW signal.

Spectral analysis of hydrological time series of a river basin in southern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luque-Espinar, Juan Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Fernández-Chacón, Francisca; Jiménez-Sánchez, Jorge; Chica-Olmo, Mario

2016-04-01

Spectral analysis has been applied with the aim to determine the presence and statistical significance of climate cycles in data series from different rainfall, piezometric and gauging stations located in upper Genil River Basin. This river starts in Sierra Nevada Range at 3,480 m a.s.l. and is one of the most important rivers of this region. The study area has more than 2.500 km2, with large topographic differences. For this previous study, we have used more than 30 rain data series, 4 piezometric data series and 3 data series from gauging stations. Considering a monthly temporal unit, the studied period range from 1951 to 2015 but most of the data series have some lacks. Spectral analysis is a methodology widely used to discover cyclic components in time series. The time series is assumed to be a linear combination of sinusoidal functions of known periods but of unknown amplitude and phase. The amplitude is related with the variance of the time series, explained by the oscillation at each frequency (Blackman and Tukey, 1958, Bras and Rodríguez-Iturbe, 1985, Chatfield, 1991, Jenkins and Watts, 1968, among others). The signal component represents the structured part of the time series, made up of a small number of embedded periodicities. Then, we take into account the known result for the one-sided confidence band of the power spectrum estimator. For this study, we established confidence levels of <90%, 90%, 95%, and 99%. Different climate signals have been identified: ENSO, QBO, NAO, Sun Spot cycles, as well as others related to sun activity, but the most powerful signals correspond to the annual cycle, followed by the 6 month and NAO cycles. Nevertheless, significant differences between rain data series and piezometric/flow data series have been pointed out. In piezometric data series and flow data series, ENSO and NAO signals could be stronger than others with high frequencies. The climatic peaks in lower frequencies in rain data are smaller and the confidence level too. On the other hand, the most important influence on groundwater resources and river flows are NAO, Sun Spot, ENSO and annual cycle. Acknowledgments: This research has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO funds and Junta de Andalucía (Group RNM122).

Novel synthesis approach for stable sodium superoxide (NaO2) nanoparticles for LPG sensing application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemade, Kailash; Waghuley, Sandeep

2017-05-01

The synthesis of stable superoxide is still great challenge for the researchers working in the field of materials science. Through this letter, we report the novel and simple synthesis approach for the preparation of stable sodium superoxide (NaO2) nanoparticles. NaO2 nanoparticles were prepared by a spray pyrolysis technique, under oxygen rich environment for gas sensing application. The texture characterizations show that as-obtained NaO2 nanoparticles have high structural purity. Most importantly, NaO2 nanoparticles exhibits higher sensing response, shorter response time and recovery time, low operating temperature and good stability during sensing of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The main accomplishment of present work is that as-fabricated sensor has low operating temperature (423 K), which is below auto-ignition temperature of LPG. The gas sensing mechanism of NaO2 nanoparticles was discussed without the conventional oxygen bridging mechanism. Through this short communication, LPG sensing application of stable sodium superoxide nanoparticle is explored.

Alcohol and suicide in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Arkhangelsk Oblast, Russia

PubMed Central

Sumarokov, Yury A.; Brenn, Tormod; Kudryavtsev, Alexander V.; Sidorenkov, Oleg; Nilssen, Odd

2016-01-01

Background High suicide rates in the Russian North are coupled with high alcohol consumption in the described populations. Objective To investigate the potential role of alcohol consumption on suicides in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) in 2002–2012 and to compare this information with corresponding data from the neighboring Arkhangelsk Oblast (AO). Design Retrospective population-based mortality study. Methods Data from autopsy reports were used to identify 252 cases of suicide in the NAO and 1,198 cases in the AO in the period 2002–2012. Postmortem blood alcohol content (BAC) was available for 228 cases in the NAO and 1,185 cases in the AO. BAC as well as other selected variables were compared between the NAO and the AO among women and men, different age groups, ethnic groups, and selected variables of suicide. Results Alcohol was present in the blood of 74.1% of male and 82.9% of female suicide cases in the NAO, which was significantly higher than the proportions found in the AO (59.3% of male and 46.6% female cases). BAC<1.0‰ and between 2.0 and 3.0‰ were more frequently found among suicide cases in the NAO than those in the AO. Conclusions Our findings specify that alcohol drinking may be an essential risk factor for suicide in the NAO, and that this factor may be of greater importance in the indigenous population of the NAO than among Russians in the AO. PMID:27452190

The hard winter of 1880-1881: Climatological context and communication via a Laura Ingalls Wilder narrative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boustead, Barbara E.

The Hard Winter of 1880-1881 was featured in the Laura Ingalls Wilder historical fiction account, The Long Winter, as well as in several town histories across the region. Both meteorological records and historical accounts indicate that the winter was particularly long, snowy, and cold. The question of how "hard" a winter is for a given location depends on the climatological context, which relies on an objective characterization of winter severity. The Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) allows comparison of the winter of 1880-1881 among sites across the region, as well as in the context of the period of record, to quantify its severity. Additionally, investigating the impacts of both the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the central United States provides context for the influence of both a strongly negative NAO and an El Nino event during the winter of 1880-1881. With an understanding of the climatological factors influencing the Hard Winter, along with the context for its severity, a more thorough analysis then was conducted to quantify and describe its severity. The connection of the winter of 1880-1881 to a popular book written by an author who is a cultural icon provides a natural vehicle with which to communicate weather and climate concepts to multiple non-technical audiences. The communication of complex weather and climate concepts is a well-documented challenge. One method to bridge between science concepts and public understanding is to relate those concepts to familiar subjects and stories, including Laura Ingalls Wilder's books. A narrative constructed around the books, particularly The Long Winter, provides a means of audience engagement and interest in weather- and climate-related topics, which was at least partially quantified by surveying audiences of the narrative. Overall, the scientific background, combined with a familiar narrative voice, provides a means to transmit weather and climate.

High Arctic summer warming tracked by increased Cassiope tetragona growth in the world's northernmost polar desert.

PubMed

Weijers, Stef; Buchwal, Agata; Blok, Daan; Löffler, Jörg; Elberling, Bo

2017-11-01

Rapid climate warming has resulted in shrub expansion, mainly of erect deciduous shrubs in the Low Arctic, but the more extreme, sparsely vegetated, cold and dry High Arctic is generally considered to remain resistant to such shrub expansion in the next decades. Dwarf shrub dendrochronology may reveal climatological causes of past changes in growth, but is hindered at many High Arctic sites by short and fragmented instrumental climate records. Moreover, only few High Arctic shrub chronologies cover the recent decade of substantial warming. This study investigated the climatic causes of growth variability of the evergreen dwarf shrub Cassiope tetragona between 1927 and 2012 in the northernmost polar desert at 83°N in North Greenland. We analysed climate-growth relationships over the period with available instrumental data (1950-2012) between a 102-year-long C. tetragona shoot length chronology and instrumental climate records from the three nearest meteorological stations, gridded climate data, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. July extreme maximum temperatures (JulT emx ), as measured at Alert, Canada, June NAO, and previous October AO, together explained 41% of the observed variance in annual C. tetragona growth and likely represent in situ summer temperatures. JulT emx explained 27% and was reconstructed back to 1927. The reconstruction showed relatively high growing season temperatures in the early to mid-twentieth century, as well as warming in recent decades. The rapid growth increase in C. tetragona shrubs in response to recent High Arctic summer warming shows that recent and future warming might promote an expansion of this evergreen dwarf shrub, mainly through densification of existing shrub patches, at High Arctic sites with sufficient winter snow cover and ample water supply during summer from melting snow and ice as well as thawing permafrost, contrasting earlier notions of limited shrub growth sensitivity to summer warming in the High Arctic. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Historical droughts in Mediterranean regions during the last 500 years: a data/model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewer, S.; Alleaume, S.; Guiot, J.; Nicault, A.

2007-06-01

We present here a new method for comparing the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) with proxy-based reconstructions, using time series of reconstructed and simulated climate parameters. The method uses k-means clustering to allow comparison between different periods that have similar spatial patterns, and a fuzzy logic-based distance measure in order to take reconstruction errors into account. The method has been used to test two coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs over the Mediterranean region for the last 500 years, using an index of drought stress, the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The results showed that, whilst no model exactly simulated the reconstructed changes, all simulations were an improvement over using the mean climate, and a good match was found after 1650 with a model run that took into account changes in volcanic forcing, solar irradiance, and greenhouse gases. A more detailed investigation of the output of this model showed the existence of a set of atmospheric circulation patterns linked to the patterns of drought stress: 1) a blocking pattern over northern Europe linked to dry conditions in the south prior to the Little Ice Age (LIA) and during the 20th century; 2) a NAO-positive like pattern with increased westerlies during the LIA; 3) a NAO-negative like period shown in the model prior to the LIA, but that occurs most frequently in the data during the LIA. The results of the comparison show the improvement in simulated climate as various forcings are included and help to understand the atmospheric changes that are linked to the observed reconstructed climate changes.

Long-term trends in first arrival and first egg laying dates of some migrant and resident bird species in northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubolini, Diego; Ambrosini, Roberto; Caffi, Mario; Brichetti, Pierandrea; Armiraglio, Stefano; Saino, Nicola

2007-08-01

Climate change is affecting the phenology of seasonal events in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere, as shown by several studies of birds’ timing of migration and reproduction. Here, we analyse the long-term (1982-2006) trends of first arrival dates of four long-distance migratory birds [swift ( Apus apus), nightingale ( Luscinia megarhynchos), barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica), and house martin ( Delichon urbicum)] and first egg laying dates of two migrant (swift, barn swallow) and two resident species [starling ( Sturnus vulgaris), Italian sparrow ( Passer italiae)] at a study site in northern Italy. We also addressed the effects of local weather (temperature and precipitation) and a climate index (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) on the interannual variability of phenological events. We found that the swift and the barn swallow significantly advanced both arrival and laying dates, whereas all other species did not show any significant temporal trend in either arrival or laying date. The earlier arrival of swifts was explained by increasing local temperatures in April, whereas this was not the case for arrival dates of swallows and first egg laying dates of both species. In addition, arrival dates of house martins were earlier following high NAO winters, while nightingale arrival was earlier when local spring rainfall was greater. Finally, Italian sparrow onset of reproduction was anticipated by greater spring rainfall, but delayed by high spring NAO anomalies, and swift’s onset of reproduction was anticipated by abundant rainfall prior to reproduction. There were no significant temporal trends in the interval between onset of laying and arrival in either the swift or the barn swallow. Our findings therefore indicate that birds may show idiosyncratic responses to climate variability at different spatial scales, though some species may be adjusting their calendar to rapidly changing climatic conditions.

Wildfire Danger Potential in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kafatos, M.; Myoung, B.; Kim, S. H.; Fujioka, F. M.; Kim, J.

2015-12-01

Wildfires are an important concern in California (CA) which is characterized by the semi-arid to arid climate and vegetation types. Highly variable winter precipitation and extended hot and dry warm season in the region challenge an effective strategic fire management. Climatologically, the fire season which is based on live fuel moisture (LFM) of generally below 80% in Los Angeles County spans 4 months from mid-July to mid-November, but it has lasted over 7 months in the past several years. This behavior is primarily due to the ongoing drought in CA during the last decade, which is responsible for frequent outbreaks of severe wildfires in the region. Despite their importance, scientific advances for the recent changes in wildfire risk and effective assessments of wildfire risk are lacking. In the present study, we show impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulations on an early start and then extended length of fire seasons. For example, the strong relationships of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with springtime temperature and precipitation in the SWUS that was recently revealed by our team members have led to an examination of the possible impact of NAO on wildfire danger in the spring. Our results show that the abnormally warm and dry spring conditions associated with positive NAO phases can cause an early start of a fire season and high fire risks throughout the summer and fall. For an effective fire danger assessment, we have tested the capability of satellite vegetation indices (VIs) in replicating in situ LFM of Southern CA chaparral ecosystems by 1) comparing seasonal/interannual characteristics of in-situ LFM with VIs and 2) developing an empirical model function of LFM. Unlike previous studies attempting a point-to-point comparison, we attempt to examine the LFM relationship with VIs averaged over different areal coverage with chamise-dominant grids (i.e., 0.5 km to 25 km radius circles). Lastly, we discuss implications of the results for fire danger assessment and prediction.

Marine mammal strandings and environmental changes: a 15-year study in the St. Lawrence ecosystem.

PubMed

Truchon, Marie-Hélène; Measures, Lena; L'Hérault, Vincent; Brêthes, Jean-Claude; Galbraith, Peter S; Harvey, Michel; Lessard, Sylvie; Starr, Michel; Lecomte, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Understanding the effects of climatic variability on marine mammals is challenging due to the complexity of ecological interactions. We used general linear models to analyze a 15-year database documenting marine mammal strandings (1994-2008; n = 1,193) and nine environmental parameters known to affect marine mammal survival, from regional (sea ice) to continental scales (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Stranding events were more frequent during summer and fall than other seasons, and have increased since 1994. Poor ice conditions observed during the same period may have affected marine mammals either directly, by modulating the availability of habitat for feeding and breeding activities, or indirectly, through changes in water conditions and marine productivity (krill abundance). For most species (75%, n = 6 species), a low volume of ice was correlated with increasing frequency of stranding events (e.g. R(2)adj = 0.59, hooded seal, Cystophora cristata). This likely led to an increase in seal mortality during the breeding period, but also to increase habitat availability for seasonal migratory cetaceans using ice-free areas during winter. We also detected a high frequency of stranding events for mysticete species (minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and resident species (beluga, Delphinapterus leucas), correlated with low krill abundance since 1994. Positive NAO indices were positively correlated with high frequencies of stranding events for resident and seasonal migratory cetaceans, as well as rare species (R(2)adj = 0.53, 0.81 and 0.34, respectively). This contrasts with seal mass stranding numbers, which were negatively correlated with a positive NAO index. In addition, an unusual multiple species mortality event (n = 114, 62% of total annual mortality) in 2008 was caused by a harmful algal bloom. Our findings provide an empirical baseline in understanding marine mammal survival when faced with climatic variability. This is a promising step in integrating stranding records to monitor the consequences of environmental changes in marine ecosystems over long time scales.

Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

PubMed

Lauria, Valentina; Attrill, Martin J; Pinnegar, John K; Brown, Andrew; Edwards, Martin; Votier, Stephen C

2012-01-01

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

Marine Mammal Strandings and Environmental Changes: A 15-Year Study in the St. Lawrence Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Truchon, Marie-Hélène; Measures, Lena; L’Hérault, Vincent; Brêthes, Jean-Claude; Galbraith, Peter S.; Harvey, Michel; Lessard, Sylvie; Starr, Michel; Lecomte, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Understanding the effects of climatic variability on marine mammals is challenging due to the complexity of ecological interactions. We used general linear models to analyze a 15-year database documenting marine mammal strandings (1994–2008; n = 1,193) and nine environmental parameters known to affect marine mammal survival, from regional (sea ice) to continental scales (North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO). Stranding events were more frequent during summer and fall than other seasons, and have increased since 1994. Poor ice conditions observed during the same period may have affected marine mammals either directly, by modulating the availability of habitat for feeding and breeding activities, or indirectly, through changes in water conditions and marine productivity (krill abundance). For most species (75%, n = 6 species), a low volume of ice was correlated with increasing frequency of stranding events (e.g. R2 adj = 0.59, hooded seal, Cystophora cristata). This likely led to an increase in seal mortality during the breeding period, but also to increase habitat availability for seasonal migratory cetaceans using ice-free areas during winter. We also detected a high frequency of stranding events for mysticete species (minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata) and resident species (beluga, Delphinapterus leucas), correlated with low krill abundance since 1994. Positive NAO indices were positively correlated with high frequencies of stranding events for resident and seasonal migratory cetaceans, as well as rare species (R2 adj = 0.53, 0.81 and 0.34, respectively). This contrasts with seal mass stranding numbers, which were negatively correlated with a positive NAO index. In addition, an unusual multiple species mortality event (n = 114, 62% of total annual mortality) in 2008 was caused by a harmful algal bloom. Our findings provide an empirical baseline in understanding marine mammal survival when faced with climatic variability. This is a promising step in integrating stranding records to monitor the consequences of environmental changes in marine ecosystems over long time scales. PMID:23544059

The Hydrologic regime over the last 90 years in the Flumendosa basin, Sardinia: the effect of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardiff, M. A.; Zhou, Y.; Lim, D.; Bakhos, T.; Hochstetler, D. L.; Barrash, W.; Kitanidis, P. K.

2014-12-01

Dry periods increased in frequency over the Mediterranean climates with dramatic effects on the management of ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supplies. In the semi-arid Mediterranean regions, such as Sardinian island, dam reservoirs are key elements of the water resources system, because they accumulate autumn and winter runoff, which is then available for the dry months. In this sense, also the seasonal precipitation distribution and its time and spatial variability can be considered hydrologically important. In the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari, a drastic runoff reduction has been observed in last thirty years. Using data from 41 rain gauges stations (1922-2007 period) and runoff data at the outlet section, we show that: 1) the annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, 2) while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed runoff coefficient anomaly are strictly related to winter precipitation (correlation coefficient of 0.5). Trends in precipitation series, in the number of wet days and temperature were examined using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend test, showing negative trends (-0.25 in winter for both precipitation and runoff). The relationship between winter precipitation and large scale pressure indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has been also investigated. High correlation between NAO and precipitation and runoff, -0.48 and -0.42 respectively, during the winter season is estimated for the whole basin homogenously, highlighting the large impact of NAO on the hydrologic dynamics of this Sardinian basin located in the east coast of the island.

The Hydrologic regime over the last 90 years in the Flumendosa basin, Sardinia: the effect of climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corona, R.; Montaldo, N.; Albertson, J. D.

2015-12-01

Dry periods increased in frequency over the Mediterranean climates with dramatic effects on the management of ecosystems, agriculture, and drinking water supplies. In the semi-arid Mediterranean regions, such as Sardinian island, dam reservoirs are key elements of the water resources system, because they accumulate autumn and winter runoff, which is then available for the dry months. In this sense, also the seasonal precipitation distribution and its time and spatial variability can be considered hydrologically important. In the Flumendosa basin (Sardinia), which is characterized by a reservoir system that supplies water to the main city of Sardinia, Cagliari, a drastic runoff reduction has been observed in last thirty years. Using data from 41 rain gauges stations (1922-2007 period) and runoff data at the outlet section, we show that: 1) the annual runoff in the latter part of the 20th century was less than half the historic average rate, 2) while the precipitation over the Flumendosa basin has decreased, but not at such a drastic rate as the discharge, suggesting a marked non-linear response of discharge to precipitation changes. Indeed runoff coefficient anomaly are strictly related to winter precipitation (correlation coefficient of 0.5). Trends in precipitation series, in the number of wet days and temperature were examined using the Mann-Kendall non parametric trend test, showing negative trends (-0.25 in winter for both precipitation and runoff). The relationship between winter precipitation and large scale pressure indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has been also investigated. High correlation between NAO and precipitation and runoff, -0.48 and -0.42 respectively, during the winter season is estimated for the whole basin homogenously, highlighting the large impact of NAO on the hydrologic dynamics of this Sardinian basin located in the east coast of the island.

Long-Term Simulation of Dust Distribution with the GOCART Model: Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ginoux, P.; Prospero, J.; Torres, O.; Chin, M.

2002-01-01

Global distribution of aeolian dust is simulated from 1981 to 1996 with the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The results are assessed with in-situ measurements and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol products. The annual budget over the different continents and oceans are analyzed. It is found that there is a maximum of 25% difference of global annual emission from the minimum in 1996 to the maximum in 1988. There is a downward trend of dust emission over Africa and East Asia, of 6 and 2 Tg/yr, respectively. The inter-annual variability of dust distribution is analyzed over the North Atlantic and Africa. It is found that in winter most of the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The GOCART model indicates that a controlling factor of such correlation can be attributed to dust emission from the Sahel. The Bodele depression is the major dust source in winter and its inter-annual variability is highly correlated with the NAO. However, it is not possible to conclude without further analysis that the North Atlantic Oscillation is forcing the inter-annual variability of dust emission and in-turn dust concentration over the North Atlantic.

The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere

PubMed Central

Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Guo, Ruixia; Lin, Pu

2015-01-01

Since the slowing of the trend of increasing surface air temperature (SAT) in the late 1990 s, intense interest and debate have arisen concerning the contribution of human activities to the warming observed in previous decades. Although several explanations have been proposed for the warming-trend slowdown (WTS), none has been generally accepted. We investigate the WTS using a recently developed methodology that can successfully identify and separate the dynamically induced and radiatively forced SAT changes from raw SAT data. The dynamically induced SAT changes exhibited an obvious cooling effect relative to the warming effect of the adjusted SAT in the hiatus process. A correlation analysis suggests that the changes are dominated primarily by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Our results confirm that dynamically induced variability caused the WTS. The radiatively forced SAT changes are determined mainly by anthropogenic forcing, indicating the warming influence of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which reached levels of 400 ppm during the hiatus period. Therefore, the global SAT will not remain permanently neutral. The increased radiatively forced SAT will be amplified by increased dynamically induced SAT when the natural mode returns to a warming phase in the next period. PMID:26223491

The Effect of Large Scale Climate Oscillations on the Land Surface Phenology of the Northern Polar Regions and Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Owsley, B.; Sokolik, I. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface phenology metrics allow for the summarization of long image time series into a set of annual observations that describe the vegetated growing season. These metrics have been shown to respond to both large scale climatic and anthropogenic impacts. In this study we assemble a time series (2001 - 2014) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance data and land surface temperature data at 0.05º spatial resolution. We then derive land surface phenology metrics focusing on the peak of the growing season by fitting quadratic regression models using NDVI and Accumulated Growing Degree-Days (AGDD) derived from land surface temperature. We link the annual information on the peak timing, the thermal time to peak and the maximum of the growing season with five of the most important large scale climate oscillations: NAO, AO, PDO, PNA and ENSO. We demonstrate several significant correlations between the climate oscillations and the land surface phenology peak metrics for a range of different bioclimatic regions in both dryland Central Asia and the northern Polar Regions. We will then link the correlation results with trends derived by the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend detection method applied to several satellite derived vegetation and albedo datasets.

Effect of Qing Nao tablet on blood stasis model of mice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Xuejun; Hao, Shaojun; Wang, Hongyu; Liu, Xiaobin; Xie, Guoqi; Li, Wenjun; Zhang, Zhengchen

2018-04-01

To investigate the effect of Qing Nao tablet on mouse model of blood stasis syndrome, 60 mice, male and female, were randomly divided into 6 groups, were fed with large, small doses of Qing Nao tablet suspension, Naoluotong saline suspension and the same volume (group 2, 0.1ml/10g), administer 1 times daily, orally for 15 days. Intragastric administration for first days, in addition to the 1 group saline group every day in the hind leg intramuscular saline, the other 5 groups each rat day hind leg muscle injection of dexamethasone 0.8mg/kg intramuscular injection every day, 1 times, 15 days. 1 hour continuous intramuscular injection and intramuscular drug perfusion on the sixteenth day after mice. The eyeball blood, heparin after whole blood viscosity test. Compared with the control group, model group, high and low shear viscosity were significantly increased (P<0.01), indicating that the model was successful. Compared with the model group, high dose group and Qing Nao tablet Naoluotong group can significantly reduce the viscosity at high shear and (P<0.01), middle dose Qing Nao tablet group can significantly reduce high shear and shear viscosity (P<0.05); large, middle dose Qing Nao tablet group can significantly reduce the low shear viscosity (P<0.05), Naoluotong group can significantly reduce the low shear viscosity (P<0.01); low dose Qing Nao tablet group were lower high cut, low shear viscosity and trend The potential (P>0.05). The Qing Nao tablet has a good effect on the model of blood stasis in mice.

Evaluating Inter-Annual Climate Variability of Nitrogen Wet Deposition in the United States Using Wavelet Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nergui, T.; Thomas, N.; Liu, M.; Lamb, B. K.; Adam, J. C.; Chung, S. H.

2012-12-01

Human activities, primarily agricultural practices and fossil fuel combustion, have caused a significant increase in nitrogen (N) emissions into the atmosphere over the last 150 years. The increase in emission subsequently leads to elevated ozone concentration, haze, increased acid rain and N deposition at local and regional scales. Many ecosystems in the US are naturally N limited. These regions are highly vulnerable to increased N deposition which can lead to irreversible changes in biodiversity richness and composition of the ecosystems. Through the impact on atmospheric chemistry and scavenging by precipitation, climate variability can play a major role on N deposition rates. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation (NAM/AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) indices are the key climate indices that characterize the climate in the contiguous US at inter-annual timescale. Here, we identify dominant periodic components (signal) in the N wet deposition and the climate index timeseries and examine their correlations and coherences using wavelet analysis. Seasonal precipitation and nitrogen (ammonium and nitrate) wet deposition data from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP), National Trends Network (NTN) for 87 sites across the United States are used for the study. The sites were selected based on data continuity of 21 years or more and NADP criteria for valid precipitation and wet deposition data. Precipitation data from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are also used to replicate and validate the general features of climate variability effects in different regions of US. Initial analysis reveals nitrate wet deposition has a dominant 1-4 year periodicity while ammonium wet deposition has a shorter periodicity (about 0.5-2 year) during 1979 to 2011. Precipitation and total N wet deposition are most correlated in the Great Plains region, in the areas centered in South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, Tennessee and Ohio states, with r2 values in the range of 0.50 to 0.75. Lower correlations (r2 value less than 0.13) were seen in the states such as Montana, Wyoming, Utah and east coastal areas. Although, correlation and coherence between ENSO and N wet deposition at 2-6 year band varies from site to site, the ENSO was found to be most correlated with N wet deposition in the eastern US among all examined climate indices. Higher r2 values from 0.38 to 0.50 were observed in the states of North Dakota, Michigan, Nebraska, Georgia and South California; smaller values were found over the western US, a region with very few NADP sites. Correlations and coherences of total N wet deposition with other climate indices (AO, PNA and NAO) at 0.5-2 year band are weaker, and the strongest of these were again seen in the Midwest and eastern US, with a maximum r2 value of 0.29. Continuing work includes analysis of precipitation frequency as well as N dry deposition data from CASTnet.

Characterization of the Temporal Clustering of Flood Events across the Central United States in terms of Climate States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele; Jones, Michael; Smith, James

2016-04-01

The central United States is a region of the country that has been plagued by frequent catastrophic flooding (e.g., flood events of 1993, 2008, 2013, and 2014), with large economic and social repercussions (e.g., fatalities, agricultural losses, flood losses, water quality issues). The goal of this study is to examine whether it is possible to describe the occurrence of flood events at the sub-seasonal scale in terms of variations in the climate system. Daily streamflow time series from 774 USGS stream gage stations over the central United States (defined here to include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan) with a record of at least 50 years and ending no earlier than 2011 are used for this study. We use a peak-over-threshold (POT) approach to identify flood peaks so that we have, on average two events per year. We model the occurrence/non-occurrence of a flood event over time using regression models based on Cox processes. Cox processes are widely used in biostatistics and can be viewed as a generalization of Poisson processes. Rather than assuming that flood events occur independently of the occurrence of previous events (as in Poisson processes), Cox processes allow us to account for the potential presence of temporal clustering, which manifests itself in an alternation of quiet and active periods. Here we model the occurrence/non-occurrence of flood events using two climate indices as climate time-varying covariates: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA). The results of this study show that NAO and/or PNA can explain the temporal clustering in flood occurrences in over 90% of the stream gage stations we considered. Analyses of the sensitivity of the results to different average numbers of flood events per year (from one to five) are also performed and lead to the same conclusions. The findings of this work highlight that variations in the climate system play a critical role in explaining the occurrence of flood events at the sub-seasonal scale over the central United States.

Benchmarking Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Skill in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrigan, Shaun; Smith, Katie; Parry, Simon; Tanguy, Maliko; Prudhomme, Christel

2017-04-01

Skilful hydrological forecasts at weekly to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in operational water management, especially during drought conditions. Hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems are an attractive approach as they use two sources of streamflow predictability: (i) initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), where soil moisture, groundwater and snow storage states can provide an estimate of future streamflow situations, and (ii) atmospheric predictability, where skilful forecasts of weather and climate variables can be used to force hydrological models. In the UK, prediction of rainfall at long lead times and for summer months in particular is notoriously difficult given the large degree of natural climate variability in ocean influenced mid-latitude regions, but recent research has uncovered exciting prospects for improved rainfall skill at seasonal lead times due to improved prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation. However, before we fully understand what this improved atmospheric predictability might mean in terms of improved hydrological forecasts, we must first evaluate how much skill can be gained from IHCs alone. Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions. The aim of this study is therefore to benchmark when (lead time/forecast initialisation month) and where (spatial pattern/catchment characteristics) ESP is skilful across a diverse set of catchments in the UK. Forecast skill was evaluated seamlessly from lead times of 1-day to 12-months and forecasts were initialised at the first of each month over the 1965-2015 hindcast period. This ESP output also provides a robust benchmark against which to assess how much improvement in skill can be achieved when meteorological forecasts are incorporated (next steps). To provide a 'tough to beat' benchmark, several variants of ESP with increasing complexity were produced, including better model representation of hydrological processes and sub-sampling of historic climate sequences (e.g. NAO+/NAO- years). This work is part of the Improving Predictions of Drought for User Decision Making (IMPETUS) project and provides insight to where advancements in atmospheric predictability is most needed in the UK in the context of water management.

North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Böning, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra; Canuto, Vittorio M.; Cassou, Christophe; Chassignet, Eric; Coward, Andrew C.; Danilov, Sergey; Diansky, Nikolay; Drange, Helge; Farneti, Riccardo; Fernandez, Elodie; Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; Forget, Gael; Fujii, Yosuke; Griffies, Stephen M.; Gusev, Anatoly; Heimbach, Patrick; Howard, Armando; Ilicak, Mehmet; Jung, Thomas; Karspeck, Alicia R.; Kelley, Maxwell; Large, William G.; Leboissetier, Anthony; Lu, Jianhua; Madec, Gurvan; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio; Nurser, A. J. George; Pirani, Anna; Romanou, Anastasia; Salas y Mélia, David; Samuels, Bonita L.; Scheinert, Markus; Sidorenko, Dmitry; Sun, Shan; Treguier, Anne-Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valcke, Sophie; Voldoire, Aurore; Wang, Qiang; Yashayaev, Igor

2016-01-01

Simulated inter-annual to decadal variability and trends in the North Atlantic for the 1958-2007 period from twenty global ocean - sea-ice coupled models are presented. These simulations are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The study is Part II of our companion paper (Danabasoglu et al., 2014) which documented the mean states in the North Atlantic from the same models. A major focus of the present study is the representation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability in the participating models. Relationships between AMOC variability and those of some other related variables, such as subpolar mixed layer depths, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Labrador Sea upper-ocean hydrographic properties, are also investigated. In general, AMOC variability shows three distinct stages. During the first stage that lasts until the mid- to late-1970s, AMOC is relatively steady, remaining lower than its long-term (1958-2007) mean. Thereafter, AMOC intensifies with maximum transports achieved in the mid- to late-1990s. This enhancement is then followed by a weakening trend until the end of our integration period. This sequence of low frequency AMOC variability is consistent with previous studies. Regarding strengthening of AMOC between about the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, our results support a previously identified variability mechanism where AMOC intensification is connected to increased deep water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, driven by NAO-related surface fluxes. The simulations tend to show general agreement in their temporal representations of, for example, AMOC, sea surface temperature (SST), and subpolar mixed layer depth variabilities. In particular, the observed variability of the North Atlantic SSTs is captured well by all models. These findings indicate that simulated variability and trends are primarily dictated by the atmospheric datasets which include the influence of ocean dynamics from nature superimposed onto anthropogenic effects. Despite these general agreements, there are many differences among the model solutions, particularly in the spatial structures of variability patterns. For example, the location of the maximum AMOC variability differs among the models between Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

North Atlantic Simulations in Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiments Phase II (CORE-II) . Part II; Inter-Annual to Decadal Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Yeager, Steve G.; Kim, Who M.; Behrens, Erik; Bentsen, Mats; Bi, Daohua; Biastoch, Arne; Bleck, Rainer; Boening, Claus; Bozec, Alexandra;

Interannual variability of ring formations in the Gulf Stream region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Y. N.

2016-02-01

An oceanic ring in the Gulf Stream (GS) region plays important roles in across-jet transport of heat, salt, momentum, and nutrients. This study examines interannual variability of rings shed from the GS jet and their properties using satellite altimeter observations from 1993 to 2013. An objective method is used to capture a ring shedding from the GS jet and track its movement. A spatial distribution of the ring formations in the GS region showed that both cyclonic (cold-core) and anticyclonic (warm-core) rings were most frequently formed around the New England Seamount chain between 62°-65°W, suggesting the importance of the bottom topography on the pinch-off process. These rings moved westward, although about two-third of these rings was reabsorbed by the GS jet. The number of ring formations, especially cyclonic ring formations, indicated prominent fluctuations on interannual to decadal timescales. The annual maximum number of the pinched-off rings is four times larger than the annual minimum number of the rings. These fluctuations of the ring formations were negatively correlated with the strength of the GS. This situation is similar that in the Kuroshio Extension region. The interannual variability of the number of ring formations is also negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with one-year lag (NAO leads). Interannual variations of the propagation tendency and shape of rings are also discussed.

Decadal trends in atmospheric deposition in a high elevation station: Effects of climate and pollution on the long-range flux of metals and trace elements over SW Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camarero, Lluís; Bacardit, Montserrat; de Diego, Alberto; Arana, Gorka

2017-10-01

Atmospheric deposition collected at remote, high elevation stations is representative of long-range transport of elements. Here we present time-series of Al, Fe, Ti, Mn, Zn, Ni, Cu, As, Cd and Pb deposition sampled in the Central Pyrenees at 2240 m a.s.l, representative of the fluxes of these elements over South West Europe. Trace element deposition did not show a simple trend. Rather, there was statistical evidence of several underlying factors governing the variability of the time-series recorded: seasonal cycles, trends, the effects of the amount of precipitation, climate-controlled export of dust, and changes in anthropogenic emissions. Overall, there were three main modes of variation in deposition. The first mode was related to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and affected Al, Fe, Ti, Mn and Pb. We interpret this as changes in the dust export from Northern Africa under the different meteorological conditions that the NAO index indicates. The second mode was an upward trend related to a rise in the frequency of precipitation events (that also lead to an increase in the amount). More frequent events might cause a higher efficiency in the scavenging of aerosols. As, Cu and Ni responded to this. And finally, the third mode of variation was related to changes in anthropogenic emissions of Pb and Zn.

Timing of squid migration reflects North Atlantic climate variability.

PubMed

Sims, D W; Genner, M J; Southward, A J; Hawkins, S J

2001-12-22

The environmental and biotic conditions affecting fisheries for cephalopods are only partially understood. A problem central to this is how climate change may influence population movements by altering the availability of thermal resources. In this study we investigate the links between climate and sea-temperature changes and squid arrival time off southwestern England over a 20-year period. We show that veined squid (Loligo forbesi) migrate eastward in the English Channel earlier when water in the preceding months is warmer, and that higher temperatures and early arrival correspond with warm (positive) phases of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). The timing of squid peak abundance advanced by 120-150 days in the warmest years ('early' years) compared with the coldest ('late' years). Furthermore, sea-bottom temperature was closely linked to the extent of squid movement. Temperature increases over the five months prior to and during the month of peak squid abundance did not differ between early and late years, indicating squid responded to temperature changes independently of time of year. We conclude that the temporal variation in peak abundance of squid seen off Plymouth represents temperature-dependent movement, which is in turn mediated by climatic changes associated with the NAO. Such climate-mediated movement may be a widespread characteristic of cephalopod populations worldwide, and may have implications for future fisheries management because global warming may alter both the timing and location of peak population abundance.

Spatio-temporal variability of dry and wet periods in mainland Portugal and its relationships with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espírito Santo, Fátima; de Lima, Isabel P.; Silva, Álvaro; Pires, Vanda; de Lima, João L. M. P.

2014-05-01

Large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and their persistence are known to drive inter-annual variability of precipitation in Europe, although depending on geographical location; this includes precipitation extremes and their trends. The vast range of time and space scales involved leads sometimes to precipitation deficits and surpluses which might affect in a different way the society, the environment and the economy at the local and regional scales, depending on specific conditions. In addition, changes in the climate are expected to affect the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events that might influence significantly the distribution, availability and sustainability of regional water resources. The location of mainland Portugal on the Northeast Atlantic region, in South-western Europe, together with other geographical features, makes this territory vulnerable to extreme dry/wet hydro-meteorological events, driven by the strong variability in precipitation. In our study we discuss, for this territory, the relation between the spatio-temporal variability in those events, including their persistence at different scales, and the variability in several modes of low frequency variability; special attention is dedicated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). Some of these dry/wet episodes affect different aspects of the hydrologic cycle and are likely to lead to drought and soil wetness/saturation conditions that can enhance flood events. Such episodes were categorized here using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which was calculated at short (3 and 6-month) and long (12 and 24-month) time scales from monthly precipitation data recorded in the 1941-2012 period (72 years) at 50 precipitation stations scattered across the study area. Moreover, because SPI is a normalized index, it is also suitable to provide spatial representations of these conditions, allowing the comparison between areas within the same region. Thus, indices were interpolated for the whole territory using deterministic and geostatistical methods, and the zonal statistics results were mapped; the spatial interpolation, analysis and mapping were implemented in ArcGIS. Results confirm that the precipitation in this region is strongly influenced by the NAO and SCAND, in particular in the wettest months. Moreover, the annual SPI shows a significant increase in the extent of dry extremes and a non-significant decrease in the extent of wet extremes. For shorter time scales, the behaviour depends on the season. We discuss the observed SPI trends and the uncertainties for the precipitation regime in the southern and western parts of the Iberian Peninsula, which includes mainland Portugal. Results underline potential applications of SPI for water resources management, which is discussed in the context of the regional hydrological conditions and increasing demand for water for different uses.

The impact of large-scale circulation patterns on summer crop yields in IP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capa Morocho, Mirian; Rodríguez Fonseca, Belén; Ruiz Ramos, Margarita

2014-05-01

Large-scale circulations patterns (ENSO, NAO) have been shown to have a significant impact on seasonal weather, and therefore on crop yield over many parts of the world(Garnett and Khandekar, 1992; Aasa et al., 2004; Rozas and Garcia-Gonzalez, 2012). In this study, we analyze the influence of large-scale circulation patterns and regional climate on the principal components of maize yield variability in Iberian Peninsula (IP) using reanalysis datasets. Additionally, we investigate the modulation of these relationships by multidecadal patterns. This study is performed analyzing long time series of maize yield, only climate dependent, computed with the crop model CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5). To simulate yields, reanalysis daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. The reanalysis climate data were obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (20th Century and NCEP) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) data server (ERA 40 and ERA Interim). Simulations were run at five locations: Lugo (northwestern), Lerida (NE), Madrid (central), Albacete (southeastern) and Córdoba (S IP) (Gabaldón et al., 2013). From these time series standardized anomalies were calculated. Afterwards, time series were time filtered to focus on the interannual-to-multiannual variability, splitting up in two components: low frequency (LF) and high frequency (HF) time scales. The principal components of HF yield anomalies in IP were compared with a set of documented patterns. These relationships were compared with multidecadal patterns, as Atlanctic Multidecadal Oscillations (AMO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillations (IPO). The results of this study have important implications in crop forecasting. In this way, it may have a positive impact on both public (agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors, to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. Acknowledgements Research by M. Capa-Morocho has been partly supported by a PICATA predoctoral fellowship of the Moncloa Campus of International Excellence (UCM-UPM) and MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) References Aasa, A., Jaagus, J., Ahas, R. and Sepp, M. 2004. The influence of atmospheric circulation on plant phenological phases in central and eastern Europe. International Journal of Climatology 24, 1551-1564. Gabaldón, C. et al. 2013. Evaluation of local strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century. European Geosciences Union - General Assembly2013 Vol. 15 (Vienna - Austria, 2013). Garnett, E. R. and Khandekar, M. L. 1992. The impact of large-scale atmospheric circulations and anomalies on Indian monsoon droughts and floods and on world grain yields-a statistical analysis. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 61, 113-128. Jones, C. and Kiniry, J. 1986. CERES-Maize: A Simulation Model of Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M University Press, 194. Rozas, V. and Garcia-Gonzalez, I. 2012. Non-stationary influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula. Int J Biometeorol 56, 787-800.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

On the Stability of NaO2 in Na-O2 Batteries.

PubMed

Liu, Chenjuan; Carboni, Marco; Brant, William R; Pan, Ruijun; Hedman, Jonas; Zhu, Jiefang; Gustafsson, Torbjörn; Younesi, Reza

2018-04-25

Na-O 2 batteries are regarded as promising candidates for energy storage. They have higher energy efficiency, rate capability, and chemical reversibility than Li-O 2 batteries; in addition, sodium is cheaper and more abundant compared to lithium. However, inconsistent observations and instability of discharge products have inhibited the understanding of the working mechanism of this technology. In this work, we have investigated a number of factors that influence the stability of the discharge products. By means of in operando powder X-ray diffraction study, the influence of oxygen, sodium anode, salt, solvent, and carbon cathode were investigated. The Na metal anode and an ether-based solvent are the main factors that lead to the instability and decomposition of NaO 2 in the cell environment. This fundamental insight brings new information on the working mechanism of Na-O 2 batteries.

Global Climatic Indices Influence on Rainfall Spatiotemporal Distribution : A Case Study from Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elkadiri, R.; Zemzami, M.; Phillips, J.

2017-12-01

The climate of Morocco is affected by the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean the Sahara and the Atlas mountains, creating a highly variable spatial and temporal distribution. In this study, we aim to decompose the rainfall in Morocco into global and local signals and understand the contribution of the climatic indices (CIs) on rainfall. These analyses will contribute in understanding the Moroccan climate that is typical of other Mediterranean and North African climatic zones. In addition, it will contribute in a long-term prediction of climate. The constructed database ranges from 1950 to 2013 and consists of monthly data from 147 rainfall stations and 37 CIs data provided mostly by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. The next general steps were followed: (1) the study area was divided into 9 homogenous climatic regions and weighted precipitation was calculated for each region to reduce the local effects. (2) Each CI was decomposed into nine components of different frequencies (D1 to D9) using wavelet multiresolution analysis. The four lowest frequencies of each CI were selected. (3) Each of the original and resulting signals were shifted from one to six months to account for the effect of the global patterns. The application of steps two and three resulted in the creation of 1225 variables from the original 37 CIs. (4) The final 1225 variables were used to identify links between the global and regional CIs and precipitation in each of the nine homogenous regions using stepwise regression and decision tree. The preliminary analyses and results were focused on the north Atlantic zone and have shown that the North Atlantic Oscillation (PC-based) from NCAR (NAOPC), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WMO) and the Extreme Eastern Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (NINO12) have the highest correlation with rainfall (33%, 30%, 27%, 21% and -20%, respectively). In addition the 4-months lagged NINO12 and the 6-months lagged NAOPC and WMO have a collective contribution of more than 45% of the rainfall signal. Low frequencies are also represented in the rainfall; especially the 5th and 4th components of the decomposed CIs (48% and 42% of the frequencies, respectively) suggesting their potential contribution in the interannual rainfall variability.

Pre-Schoolers' Interest and Caring Behaviour around a Humanoid Robot

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ioannou, Andri; Andreou, Emily; Christofi, Maria

2015-01-01

This exploratory case study involved a humanoid robot, NAO, and four pre-schoolers. NAO was placed in an indoor playground together with other toys and appeared as a peer who played, talked, danced and said stories. Analysis of video recordings focused on children's behaviour around NAO and how the robot gained children's attention and…

Benchmark of Ab Initio Bethe-Salpeter Equation Approach with Numeric Atom-Centered Orbitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chi; Kloppenburg, Jan; Kanai, Yosuke; Blum, Volker

The Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) approach based on the GW approximation has been shown to be successful for optical spectra prediction of solids and recently also for small molecules. We here present an all-electron implementation of the BSE using numeric atom-centered orbital (NAO) basis sets. In this work, we present benchmark of BSE implemented in FHI-aims for low-lying excitation energies for a set of small organic molecules, the well-known Thiel's set. The difference between our implementation (using an analytic continuation of the GW self-energy on the real axis) and the results generated by a fully frequency dependent GW treatment on the real axis is on the order of 0.07 eV for the benchmark molecular set. We study the convergence behavior to the complete basis set limit for excitation spectra, using a group of valence correlation consistent NAO basis sets (NAO-VCC-nZ), as well as for standard NAO basis sets for ground state DFT with extended augmentation functions (NAO+aug). The BSE results and convergence behavior are compared to linear-response time-dependent DFT, where excellent numerical convergence is shown for NAO+aug basis sets.

Mediterranean climate patterns and wine quality in North and Central Italy.

PubMed

Dalu, John David; Baldi, Marina; Marta, Anna Dalla; Orlandini, Simone; Maracchi, Gianpiero; Dalu, Giovanni; Grifoni, Daniele; Mancini, Marco

2013-09-01

Results show that the year-to-year quality variation of wines produced in North and Central Italy depends on the large-scale climate variability, and that the wine quality improvement in the last four decades is partially due to an increase of temperature and to a decrease of precipitation in West and Central Mediterranean Europe (WME; CME). In addition, wine quality is positively correlated with air temperature throughout the entire active period of the grapevine, weakly negatively correlated with precipitation in spring, and well negatively correlated in summer and fall. The month-to-month composites of the NAO anomaly show that, in years of good quality wine, this anomaly is negative in late spring, oscillates around zero in summer, and is positive in early fall; while, in years of bad quality wine, it is positive in late spring and summer, and negative in early fall, i.e. its polarity has an opposite sign in spring and fall in good versus bad years. The composite seasonal maps show that good wines are produced when the spring jet stream over the Atlantic diverts most of the weather perturbations towards North Europe, still providing a sufficient amount of rainwater to CME; when summer warming induced by southerly winds is balanced by the cooling induced by westerly winds; and when a positive geopotential anomaly over WME shelters CME from fall Atlantic storms. Bad quality wines are produced when the jet stream favors the intrusion of the Atlantic weather perturbations into the Mediterranean. Results suggest that atmospheric pattern persistencies can be used as precursors for wine quality forecast.

Sodium-Oxygen Batteries: A Comparative Review from Chemical and Electrochemical Fundamentals to Future Perspective.

PubMed

Yadegari, Hossein; Sun, Qian; Sun, Xueliang

2016-09-01

Alkali metal-oxygen (Li-O2 , Na-O2 ) batteries have attracted a great deal of attention recently due to their high theoretical energy densities, comparable to gasoline, making them attractive candidates for application in electrical vehicles. However, the limited cycling life and low energy efficiency (high charging overpotential) of these cells hinder their commercialization. The Li-O2 battery system has been extensively studied in this regard during the past decade. Compared to the numerous reports of Li-O2 batteries, the research on Na-O2 batteries is still in its infancy. Although, Na-O2 batteries show a number of attractive properties such as low charging overpotential and high round-trip energy efficiency, their cycling life is currently limited to a few tens of cycles. Therefore, understanding the chemistry behind Na-O2 cells is critical towards enhancing their performance and advancing their development. Chemical and electrochemical reactions of Na-O2 batteries are reviewed and compared with those of Li-O2 batteries in the present review, as well as recent works on the chemical composition and morphology of the discharge products in these batteries. Furthermore, the determining kinetics factors for controlling the chemical composition of the discharge products in Na-O2 cells are discussed and the potential research directions toward improving Na-O2 cells are proposed. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Response of waves and coastline evolution to climate variability off the Niger Delta coast during the past 110 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Ma, Yanyan; Ding, Dong; Xu, Jishang; Li, Pin; Yang, Jichao

2016-08-01

River deltas, low-lying landforms that host critical economic infrastructures and diverse ecosystems as well as high concentrations of human population, are highly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In order to understand the wave climate, their potential changes and implication on coastline evolution for environment monitoring and sustainable management of the Niger Delta in the Gulf of Guinea, an investigation was carried out based on offshore wave statistics of an 110-year time series (1900-2010) dataset obtained from the ECMWF ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis. Results of multivariate regression analyses indicate that interannual mean values of Hs and Tm trends tended to increase over time, especially in the western part of the delta coast, so that they are presently (1980 and 2010) up to 264 mm (300%) and 0.32 s (22%), respectively, higher than 80 years (1900-1930) ago. The maximum directions of the wave have become more westerly (southward) than southerly (westward) by up to 2° (33%) and the mean longshore sediment transport rate has increased by more than 8% over the last 80 years. The linear regression analysis for shoreline changes from 1987 to 2013 shows an erosional trend at the western part of the delta and accretional trends towards eastern part. The relationship between wave climate of the study area and atmospheric circulation using Pearson's correlation shows that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA) and El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index explain significant proportion of the seasonal and annual wave variabilities compared to other indices. But it is most likely that the combination of these climatic indices acting together or separately constitutes a powerful and effective mechanism responsible for much of the variability of the offshore Niger Delta wave climate. The study concludes that changing wave climate off the Niger Delta has strong implications on the delta coastline changes. However, other processes (such as fluvial discharge variability due climatic variability and anthropogenic effect) may be acting concomitantly with changes in wave regime and associated littoral transport to influence shoreline evolution along the Niger Delta coast.

The NAO Influence on the Early to Mid-Holocene North Atlantic Coastal Upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Cachão, M.; Sousa, P.; Trigo, R. M.; Freitas, M. C.

2017-12-01

Coastal upwelling regions yield some of the oceanic most productive ecosystems, being crucial for the worldwide social and economic development. Most upwelling systems, emerging cold nutrient-rich deep waters, are located in the eastern boundaries of the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and are driven by meridional wind fields parallel to the coastal shore. These winds are associated with the subsiding branch of the large-scale Anticyclonic high pressure systems that dominate the subtropical ocean basins, and therefore can be displaced or intensified within the context of past and future climate changes. However, the role of the current global warming influencing the coastal upwelling is, as yet, unclear. Therefore it is essential to derive a long-term perspective, beyond the era of instrumental measurements, to detect similar warm periods in the past that have triggered changes in the upwelling patterns. In this work, the upwelling dynamics in the Iberian North Atlantic margin during the early and mid-Holocene is reconstructed, using calcareous nannofossils from a decadally resolved estuarine sediment core located in southwestern Portugal. Results suggest that the coastal dynamics reflects changes in winds direction likely related to shifts in the NAO-like conditions. Furthermore, the reconstructed centennial-scale variations in the upwelling are synchronous with changes in solar irradiance, a major external forcing factor of the climate system that is known to exert influence in atmospheric circulation patterns. In addition, these proxy-based data interpretations are in agreement with wind field and solar irradiance simulation modelling for the mid-Holocene. Therefore, the conclusion that the solar activity via the NAO modulation controlled the North Atlantic upwelling of western Iberia during the early and mid-Holocene at decadal to centennial timescales can be derived. The financial support for attending this meeting was possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz

Humanoid assessing rehabilitative exercises.

PubMed

Simonov, M; Delconte, G

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "New Methodologies for Patients Rehabilitation". The article presents the approach in which the rehabilitative exercise prepared by healthcare professional is encoded as formal knowledge and used by humanoid robot to assist patients without involving other care actors. The main objective is the use of humanoids in rehabilitative care. An example is pulmonary rehabilitation in COPD patients. Another goal is the automated judgment functionality to determine how the rehabilitation exercise matches the pre-programmed correct sequence. We use the Aldebaran Robotics' NAO humanoid to set up artificial cognitive application. Pre-programmed NAO induces elderly patient to undertake humanoid-driven rehabilitation exercise, but needs to evaluate the human actions against the correct template. Patient is observed using NAO's eyes. We use the Microsoft Kinect SDK to extract motion path from the humanoid's recorded video. We compare human- and humanoid-operated process sequences by using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) and test the prototype. This artificial cognitive software showcases the use of DTW algorithm to enable humanoids to judge in near real-time about the correctness of rehabilitative exercises performed by patients following the robot's indications. One could enable better sustainable rehabilitative care services in remote residential settings by combining intelligent applications piloting humanoids with the DTW pattern matching algorithm applied at run time to compare humanoid- and human-operated process sequences. In turn, it will lower the need of human care.

Oscillations in land surface hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labat, D.

2006-02-01

Hydrological cycle is the perpetual movement of water throughout the various component of the global Earth's system. Focusing on the land surface component of this cycle, the determination of the succession of dry and humid periods is of high importance with respect to water resources management but also with respect to global geochemical cycles. This knowledge requires a specified estimation of recent fluctuations of the land surface cycle at continental and global scales. Our approach leans towards a new estimation of freshwater discharge to oceans from 1875 to 1994 as recently proposed by Labat et al. [Labat, D., Goddéris, Y., Probst, JL, Guyot, JL, 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 631-642]. Wavelet analyses of the annual freshwater discharge time series reveal an intermittent multiannual variability (4- to 8-y, 14- to 16-y and 20- to 25-y fluctuations) and a persistent multidecadal 30- to 40-y variability. Continent by continent, reasonable relationships between land-water cycle oscillations and climate forcing (such as ENSO, NAO or sea surface temperature) are proposed even though if such relationships or correlations remain very complex. The high intermittency of interannual oscillations and the existence of persistent multidecadal fluctuations make prediction difficult for medium-term variability of droughts and high-flows, but lead to a more optimistic diagnostic for long-term fluctuations prediction.

Exploring Connections between Global Climate Indices and African Vegetation Phenology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; deBeurs, Kirsten; Vrieling, Anton

2009-01-01

Variations in agricultural production due to rainfall and temperature fluctuations are a primary cause of food insecurity on the continent in Africa. Agriculturally destructive droughts and floods are monitored from space using satellite remote sensing by organizations seeking to provide quantitative and predictive information about food security crises. Better knowledge on the relation between climate indices and food production may increase the use of these indices in famine early warning systems and climate outlook forums on the continent. Here we explore the relationship between phenology metrics derived from the 26 year AVHRR NDVI record and the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). We explore spatial relationships between growing conditions as measured by the NDVI and the five climate indices in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa to determine the regions and periods when they have a significant impact. The focus is to provide a clear indication as to which climate index has the most impact on the three regions during the past quarter century. We found that the start of season and cumulative NDVI were significantly affected by variations in the climate indices. The particular climate index and the timing showing highest correlation depended heavily on the region examined. The research shows that climate indices can contribute to understanding growing season variability in Eastern, Western and Southern Africa.

Spontaneous switching among multiple spatio-temporal patterns in three-oscillator systems constructed with oscillatory cells of true slime mold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takamatsu, Atsuko

2006-11-01

Three-oscillator systems with plasmodia of true slime mold, Physarum polycephalum, which is an oscillatory amoeba-like unicellular organism, were experimentally constructed and their spatio-temporal patterns were investigated. Three typical spatio-temporal patterns were found: rotation ( R), partial in-phase ( PI), and partial anti-phase with double frequency ( PA). In pattern R, phase differences between adjacent oscillators were almost 120 ∘. In pattern PI, two oscillators were in-phase and the third oscillator showed anti-phase against the two oscillators. In pattern PA, two oscillators showed anti-phase and the third oscillator showed frequency doubling oscillation with small amplitude. Actually each pattern is not perfectly stable but quasi-stable. Interestingly, the system shows spontaneous switching among the multiple quasi-stable patterns. Statistical analyses revealed a characteristic in the residence time of each pattern: the histograms seem to have Gamma-like distribution form but with a sharp peak and a tail on the side of long period. That suggests the attractor of this system has complex structure composed of at least three types of sub-attractors: a “Gamma attractor”-involved with several Poisson processes, a “deterministic attractor”-the residence time is deterministic, and a “stable attractor”-each pattern is stable. When the coupling strength was small, only the Gamma attractor was observed and switching behavior among patterns R, PI, and PA almost always via an asynchronous pattern named O. A conjecture is as follows: Internal/external noise exposes each pattern of R, PI, and PA coexisting around bifurcation points: That is observed as the Gamma attractor. As coupling strength increases, the deterministic attractor appears then followed by the stable attractor, always accompanied with the Gamma attractor. Switching behavior could be caused by regular existence of the Gamma attractor.

Rainfall variability in southern Spain on decadal to centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigo, F. S.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Pozo-Vázquez, D.; Castro-Díez, Y.

2000-06-01

In this work a long rainfall series in Andalusia (southern Spain) is analysed. Methods of historical climatology were used to reconstruct a 500-year series from historical sources. Different statistical tools were used to detect and characterize significant changes in this series. Results indicate rainfall fluctuations, without abrupt changes, in the following alternating dry and wet phases: 1501-1589 dry, 1590-1649 wet, 1650-1775 dry, 1776-1937 wet and 1938-1997 dry. Possible causal mechanisms are discussed, emphasizing the important contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to rainfall variability in the region. Solar activity is discussed in relation to the Maunder Minimum period, and finally the past and present are compared. Results indicate that the magnitude of fluctuations is similar in the past and present.

Gravitational Signal of Mass Redistribution Due to Interannual Meteorological Oscillations in Atmosphere and Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, B. F.; Au, A. Y.; Johnson, T.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, QBO, NAO, etc.) have demonstrable influences on Earth's rotation. Here we study their effects on global gravitational field, whose temporal variations are being studied using SLR (satellite laser ranging) data and in anticipation of the new space mission GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using the EOF (empirical orthogonal function)/PC (principal component) decomposition of surface fields (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean). We examine two fields, one for the global surface pressure field for the atmosphere obtained from the NCEP reanalysis (for the past 40 years), one for the surface topography field for the ocean from the Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data (for the past 8 years). We use monthly maps, and remove the mean-monthly ("climatology") values from each grid point, hence focusing only on non-seasonal signals. The T/P data were first subject to a steric correction where the steric contribution to the ocean surface topography was removed according to output of the numerical POCM model. The respective atmospheric and oceanic contributions to the gravitational variation, in terms of harmonic Stokes coefficients, are then combined mode-by-mode. Since the T/P data already contain the oceanic response to overlying atmospheric pressure, no regards to the inverted-barometer behavior for the ocean need be considered. Results for the lowest-degree Stokes coefficients can then be compared with space geodetic observations including the Earth's rotation and the SLR data mentioned above, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

The Sirius Cult in Ancient Greece. Aristaios and the Formation of the Attico-Cycladic Mythological Substratum.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laoupi, A.

Pivotal figure of Sirius myth among the inhabitants of Late Bronze Age Greece (ca.1600-1100 B.C.) is Aristaios protector of the shepherds and hunters teacher of cheese-making and the art of hunting , of oil-making and bee-keeping , honey and honey - mead, god of medicinal herbs and the cooling Etesian winds of mid-summer. The aim of this paper is to detect a) the inventors of Sirius astromyth within the boundaries of prehistoric Greek maritime Civilization (the Pelasgian substratum), b)the geographical distribution of this myth via its main divine figure (colonization of Western Mediterranean and the Prehistoric trade of silphium with the North African Coast , Kadmos and cultural relationships with Eastern Mediterranean connection with Thesaly, Northern Greece, Arcadia, Argos, Attica, Minoan Crete and Cyclades, N.W. Greece), c)the elements of Sirius cult worshipped by the insular population of the Aegean, d)the historical pathway of this astromyth and its survival to the later periods of Cycladic history (Keians coins, Keian traditions, modern Keian names and localities) e)the immigration of its symbols (the hunting lion, the motif of the dogs, deities with fertilizing and creative properties) and f) the environmental setting which gave birth to this astromyth (disturbance of wind patterns, teleconnections with Indian monsoons and NAO, climatic oscillations, pestilence in Eastern Mediterranean).

From South to North: flowering phenological responses at different geographical latitudes in 12 European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, Barbara; Lehoczky, Annamária; Filzmoser, Peter; Templ, Matthias; Szentkirályi, Ferenc; Pongrácz, Rita; Ortner, Thomas; Mert, Can; Czúcz, Bálint

2014-05-01

Phenological sensitivity of plants strongly depends on regional climate variability, moreover it is also influenced by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Plants in different environmental conditions (determined by geographical latitude and longitude, altitude, continentality) may show diverse responses to climate change. The first results of an international cooperation aiming at the analysis of plant phenological data along a latitudinal gradient over 12 European countries (Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland) are presented. The spatio-temporal changes in the flowering onset dates of common lilac (Syringa vulgaris L.) during the period of 1970-2000 were analysed. To characterise the environmental conditions driving the phenological responses, climatic variables (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, precipitation) obtained from a gridded observational dataset (E-OBS 9.0) and time series of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were used. Preliminary results for this particular species found a gradual advance of mean flowering onsets along latitudes from 40° N to 65° N, at the rate of -0.12 to -0.32 day/year. Significant zonal differences were found in these rates, which can be explained by the sensitivity of flowering to climatic conditions while moving from Mediterranen to boreal regions of Europe. Thus our results were coherent with most observations in the literature, that higher latitudes can exhibit more pronounced responses, particularly in case of spring phenological events.

Propagating wave and irregular dynamics: Spatiotemporal patterns of cholinergic theta oscillations in neocortex, in vitro

PubMed Central

Bao, Weili; Wu, Jian-young

2010-01-01

Neocortical “theta” oscillation (5- 12 Hz) has been observed in animals and human subjects but little is known about how the oscillation is organized in the cortical intrinsic networks. Here we use voltage-sensitive dye and optical imaging to study a carbachol/bicuculline induced theta (~8 Hz) oscillation in rat neocortical slices. The imaging has large signal-to-noise ratio, allowing us to map the phase distribution over the neocortical tissue during the oscillation. The oscillation was organized as spontaneous epochs and each epoch was composed of a “first spike”, a “regular” period (with relatively stable frequency and amplitude) and an “irregular” period (with variable frequency and amplitude) of oscillations. During each cycle of the regular oscillation one wave of activation propagated horizontally (parallel to the cortical lamina) across the cortical section at a velocity of ~50 mm/sec. Vertically the activity was synchronized through all cortical layers. This pattern of one propagating wave associated with one oscillation cycle was seen during all the regular cycles. The oscillation frequency varied noticeably at two neighboring horizontal locations (330 μm apart), suggesting that the oscillation is locally organized and each local oscillator is about equal or less than 300 μm wide horizontally. During irregular oscillations the spatiotemporal patterns were complex and sometimes the vertical synchronization decomposed, suggesting a de-coupling among local oscillators. Our data suggested that neocortical theta oscillation is sustained by multiple local oscillators. The coupling regime among the oscillators may determine the spatiotemporal pattern and switching between propagating waves and irregular patterns. PMID:12612003

Spectral studies of N-nonyl acridine orange in anionic, cationic and neutral surfactants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiosetek-Reske, Agnieszka M.; Wysocki, Stanisław

2006-08-01

The spectroscopic and photophysical properties of N-nonyl acridine orange - a metachromatic dye useful as a mitochondrial probe in living cells - are reported in water and microheterogeneous media: anionic sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS), cationic cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) and neutral octylophenylpolyoxyethylene ether (TX-100). The spectral changes of N-nonyl acridine orange were observed in the presence of varying amount of SDS, CTAB and TX-100 and indicated formation of a dye-surfactant complex. The spectral changes were also regarded to be caused by the incorporation of dye molecules to micelles. It was proved by calculated values Kb and f in the following order: Kb TX-100 > Kb CTAB > Kb SDS and fTX-100 > fCTAB > fSDS. NAO binds to the micelle regardless the micellar charge. There are two types of interactions between NAO and micelles: hydrophobic and electrostatic. The hydrophobic interactions play a dominant role in binding of the dye to neutral TX-100. The unexpected fact of the binding NAO to cationic CTAB can be explained by a dominant role of hydrophobic interactions over electrostatic repulsion. Therefore, the affinity of NAO to CTAB is smaller than TX-100. Electrostatic interactions play an important role in binding of NAO to anionic micelles SDS. We observed a prolonged fluorescence lifetime after formation of the dye-surfactant complex τSDS > τTX-100 > τCTAB > τwater, the dye being protected against water in this environment. TX-100 is found to stabilize the excited state of NAO which is more polar than the ground state. Spectroscopic and photophysical properties of NAO will be helpful for a better understanding of the nature of binding and distribution inside mammalian cells.

Augmentation effect of acupuncture on Bi'nao for hypophasis in patients with Bell's palsy: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Li, Xiaoyan; Chen, Chunlan; Zhao, Chuang; Li, Zunyuan; Liang, Wei; Liu, Zhidan

2018-06-11

Hypophasis is one of the most frequently observed sequelae of patients with Bell's palsy, who have not recovered completely, creating a clinical difficulty for physicians. Acupuncture therapy has been widely used to treat Bell's palsy as a reasonable resolution for management of symptoms such as hypophasis. The number of acupuncture points (acu-points) is frequently selected in the approach of acupuncture therapy; however, whether these had high efficiency has not been proved. According to the literature review, Bi'nao was useful for treating eye and eye lipid diseases, which could be proved only by some successful cases. Thus, a randomized controlled trial was designed to evaluate the efficiency of the acu-point Bi'nao. Participants with hypophasis as the major symptom are selected among patients with Bell's palsy and randomly allocated into one of the three groups at a 1:1:1 allocation ratio. All participants receive conventional acupuncture therapy; however, those assigned to the real acupuncture group will be given added acupuncture therapy on the acu-point Bi'nao, while those assigned to the sham acupuncture group were given extra acupuncture therapy on the sham Bi'nao as a placebo. The efficacy of the acupuncture therapy on the acu-point Bi'nao for hypophasis will be evaluated by Eye Crack Width Measurement (ECWM) and Eyelid Strength Assessment (ESA) before and after therapy. This is the first study assessing the safety and efficiency of Bi'nao in treating the hypophasis of patients with Bell's palsy that might support the application of this acupuncture therapy. However, evaluating hypophasis is challenging, and, thus, ECWM and ESA were applied to measure the eyelid movement. Chinese Clinical Trials Registry, ChiCTR-INR-17012955 . Registered on 12 October 2017.

Strain identification and quorum sensing inhibition characterization of marine-derived Rhizobium sp. NAO1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Hong; Zhou, Jin; Zhu, Xiaoshan; Yu, Shenchen; Chen, Lu; Jin, Hui; Cai, Zhonghua

2017-03-01

A novel strategy for combating pathogens is through the ongoing development and use of anti-quorum sensing (QS) treatments such as therapeutic bacteria or their anti-QS substances. Relatively little is known about the bacteria that inhabit the open ocean and of their potential anti-pathogenic attributes; thus, in an initiative to identify these types of therapeutic bacteria, planktonic microbes from the North Atlantic Ocean were collected, isolated, cultured and screened for anti-QS activity. Screening analysis identified one such strain, Rhizobium sp. NAO1. Extracts of Rhizobium sp. NAO1 were identified via ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) analysis. They were shown to contain N-acyl homoserine lactone (AHL)-based QS analogues (in particular, the N-butyryl homoserine lactone (C4-AHL) analogue) and could disrupt biofilm formation by Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1. QS inhibition was confirmed using confocal scanning laser microscopy and growth curves, and it was shown to occur in a dose-dependent manner without affecting bacterial growth. Secondary metabolites of Rhizobium sp. NAO1 inhibited PAO1 pathogenicity by downregulating AHL-mediated virulence factors such as elastase activity and siderophore production. Furthermore, as a result of biofilm structure damage, the secondary metabolite products of Rhizobium sp. NAO1 significantly increased the sensitivity of PAO1 to aminoglycoside antibiotics. Our results demonstrated that Rhizobium sp. strain NAO1 has the ability to disrupt P. aeruginosa PAO1 biofilm architecture, in addition to attenuating P. aeruginosa PAO1 virulence factor production and pathogenicity. Therefore, the newly identified ocean-derived Rhizobium sp. NAO1 has the potential to serve as a QS inhibitor and may be a new microbial resource for drug development.

High-Capacity Sodium Peroxide Based NaO 2 Batteries with Low Charge Overpotential via a Nanostructured Catalytic Cathode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Lu; Zhang, Dongzhou; Lei, Yu

The superoxide based Na-O-2 battery has circumvented the issue of large charge overpotential in Li-O-2 batteries; however, the one-electron process leads to limited capacity. Herein, a sodium peroxide based low-overpotential (similar to 0.5 V) Na-O-2 battery with a capacity as high as 7.5 mAh/cm(2) is developed with Pd nanoparticles as catalysts on the cathode.

North-south palaeohydrological contrasts in the central Mediterranean during the Holocene: tentative synthesis and working hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magny, M.; Combourieu Nebout, N.; de Beaulieu, J. L.; Bout-Roumazeilles, V.; Colombaroli, D.; Desprat, S.; Francke, A.; Joannin, S.; Peyron, O.; Revel, M.; Sadori, L.; Siani, G.; Sicre, M. A.; Samartin, S.; Simonneau, A.; Tinner, W.; Vannière, B.; Wagner, B.; Zanchetta, G.; Anselmetti, F.; Brugiapaglia, E.; Chapron, E.; Debret, M.; Desmet, M.; Didier, J.; Essallami, L.; Galop, D.; Gilli, A.; Haas, J. N.; Kallel, N.; Millet, L.; Stock, A.; Turon, J. L.; Wirth, S.

2013-04-01

On the basis of a multi-proxy approach and a strategy combining lacustrine and marine records along a north-south transect, data collected in the Central Mediterranean within the framework of a collaborative project have led to reconstruction of high-resolution and well-dated palaeohydrological records and to assessment of their spatial and temporal coherency. Contrasting patterns of palaeohydrological changes have been evidenced in the Central Mediterranean: south (north) of around 40° N of latitude, the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by lake-level maxima (minima), during an interval dated to ca. 10 300-4500 cal BP to the south and 9000-4500 cal BP to the north. Available data suggest that these contrasting palaeohydrological patterns operated throughout the Holocene, both on millennial and centennial scales. Regarding precipitation seasonality, maximum humidity in the Central Mediterranean during the middle part of the Holocene was characterised by humid winters and dry summers north of ca. 40° N, and humid winters and summers south of ca. 40° N. This may explain an apparent conflict between palaeoclimatic records depending on the proxies used for reconstruction as well as the synchronous expansion of tree species taxa with contrasting climatic requirements. In addition, south of ca. 40° N, the first millennium of the Holocene was characterised by very dry climatic conditions not only in the Eastern, but also in the Central and the Western Mediterranean zones as reflected by low lake levels and delayed reforestation. These results suggest that, in addition to the influence of the Nile discharge reinforced by the African monsoon, the deposition of Sapropel 1 has been favoured (1) by an increase in winter precipitation in the northern Mediterranean borderlands, and (2) by an increase in winter and summer precipitation in the southern Mediterranean area. The climate reversal following the Holocene climate optimum appears to have been punctuated by two major climate changes around 7500 and 4500 cal BP. In the Central Mediterranean, the Holocene palaeohydrological changes developed in response to a combination of orbital, ice-sheet and solar forcing factors. The maximum humidity interval in the south-central Mediterranean started at ca. 10 300 cal BP, in correlation with the decline (1) of the possible blocking effects of the North Atlantic anticyclone linked to maximum insolation, and/or (2) of the influence of the remnant ice sheets and fresh water forcing in the North Atlantic Ocean. In the north-central Mediterranean, the lake-level minimum interval began only around 9000 cal BP when the Fennoscandian ice-sheet disappeared and a prevailing positive NAO-type circulation developed in the North Atlantic area. The major palaeohydrological oscillation around 4500-4000 cal BP may be a non-linear response to the gradual decrease, with additional key seasonal and interhemispherical changes, in insolation. On a centennial scale, the successive climatic events which punctuated the entire Holocene in the central Mediterranean coincided with cooling events associated with deglacial outbursts in the North Atlantic area and decreases in solar activity during the interval 11 700-7000 cal BP, and to a possible combination of NAO-type circulation and solar forcing since ca. 7000 cal BP onwards. Thus, regarding the centennial-scale climatic oscillations, the Mediterranean Basin appears to have been strongly linked to the North Atlantic area and affected by solar activity over the entire Holocene. In addition to model experiments, a better understanding of forcing factors and past atmospheric circulation patterns behind the Holocene palaeohydrological changes in the Mediterranean area will require further investigation to establish additional high-resolution and well-dated records in selected locations around the Mediterranean Basin and in adjacent regions. Special attention should be paid to greater precision in the reconstruction, on millennial and centennial time scales, of changes in the latitudinal location of the limit between the northern and southern palaeohydrological Mediterranean sectors, depending on (1) the intensity and/or characteristics of climatic periods/oscillations (e.g. Holocene thermal maximum versus Neoglacial, as well as, for instance, the 8.2 ka event versus the 4 ka event or the Little Ice Age), and (2) on varying geographical conditions from the western to the eastern Mediterranean areas (longitudinal gradients).

Spatial Variability of Climate Signatures Recorded in an Array of Shallow Firn Cores from the Western Greenland Percolation Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thundercloud, Z. R.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Graeter, K.; Lewis, G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.

2016-12-01

Greenland ice cores provide seasonally to annually resolved proxy records of past temperature, accumulation and atmospheric circulation. Most Greenland ice cores have been collected from the dry snow zone at elevations greater than 2500 m to produce records of North Atlantic paleoclimate over the last full glacial cycle. Ice cores collected from more costal regions, however, provide the opportunity to develop regional-scale records of climate conditions along ice sheet margins where recent temperature and precipitation changes have been larger than those in the ice sheet interior. These cores are more readily comparable to lake sediment and landscape (i.e. moraine) records from the ice sheet margin, and are potentially more sensitive to sea-ice variability due to the proximity to the coast. Here we present major ion and stable isotope records from an array of firn cores (40-55 year records) collected in the western Greenland percolation zone, and assess the spatial variability of ice core statistical relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Baffin Bay sea ice extent. Seven cores were collected from elevations of 2100-2500 m along a 400-km segment of the ice sheet from Dye-2 to Milcent as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project from May-June 2016. They were sampled by a continuous melter system at Dartmouth College, and analyzed using Dionex ion chromatographs and a Picarro L2130-i laser ring-down spectrometer. We focus on the signature of the NAO and Baffin Bay sea ice extent in the sea-salt, dust, deuterium excess (d-excess), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) firn core records, and assess the special variability of these climate-ice core relationships across the study area. Climate reanalysis data indicate that NAO-ice core correlations should be stronger at lower elevation in the percolation zone than high in the dry snow zone. Our results will provide valuable insight into the sensitivity of Greenland ice core paleoclimate reconstructions to the specific ice core location, and thereby aid in site selection for deeper ice cores that could span the Holocene.

Sea level trends and NAO influences: The Bristol Channel/Severn Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, M. R.; Crisp, S.

2010-09-01

Fifteen years, 1993 (earliest available) to 2007 inclusive of monthly mean and extreme (maximum and minimum) sea level data were assessed for four tide gauges located in the Bristol Channel (Mumbles and Ilfracombe) and Severn Estuary (Newport and Hinkley Point). Results showed decreasing maximum sea level trends and increasing minimum sea level trends, resulting in convergence. However, maximum extreme sea levels on the Welsh shoreline (Mumbles and Newport) were higher than corresponding locations on the English coast (Ilfracombe and Hinkley Point). Analysis showed that from 1995 to 1998 inclusive, maximum extreme sea levels were significantly higher at Mumbles (t = 2.342; df = 10; p < 0.05), Newport (t = 5.034; df = 13; p < 0.01) and Hinkley Point (t = 3.570; df = 13; p < 0.01) and were correlated to increased storm frequencies during these years. However, Ilfracombe (t = 1.472; df = 12; p > 0.05) did not demonstrate similar significance, possibly due to tide gauge location and coastal aspect, while tidal influences became more dominant as the tidal prism moved up the estuary. Actual mean sea levels (MSL) at Newport (t = 2.880; df = 14; p < 0.05) and Hinkley Point (t = 5.282; df = 14; p < 0.01) were significantly higher than predicted; at Mumbles (t = 2.673; df = 11; p < 0.05) they were significantly lower than predicted; while Ilfracombe (t = 1.989; df = 13; p > 0.05) once again showed no significant difference. Mumbles is the only location with off-shore sand waves and analysis suggested these as the cause of opposite trends. Sea level variation was strongly correlated to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index, especially for maximum extreme sea levels during positive phases (R 2 = 86%), and higher positive or negative NAO Index values resulted in larger sea level ranges. Further analysis showed a rising Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary MSL trend of 2.4 mm yr - 1 and a 2050 MSL of 0.370 m is projected to inform future management. However, continuous updating and refinement of the sea level datasets will be needed.

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

PubMed

Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

2014-06-01

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole-eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Abundance patterns of evolved stars with Hipparcos parallaxes and ages based on the APOGEE data base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Y. P.; Chen, Y. Q.; Zhao, G.; Bari, M. A.; Zhao, J. K.; Tan, K. F.

2018-01-01

We investigate the abundance patterns for four groups of stars at evolutionary phases from sub-giant to red clump (RC) and trace the chemical evolution of the disc by taking 21 individual elemental abundances from APOGEE and ages from evolutionary models with the aid of Hipparcos distances. We find that the abundances of six elements (Si, S, K, Ca, Mn and Ni) are similar from the sub-giant phase to the RC phase. In particular, we find that a group of stars with low [C/N] ratios, mainly from the second sequence of RC stars, show that there is a difference in the transfer efficiency of the C-N-O cycle between the main and the secondary RC sequences. We also compare the abundance patterns of C-N, Mg-Al and Na-O with giant stars in globular clusters from APOGEE and find that field stars follow similar patterns as M107, a metal-rich globular cluster with [M/H] ∼- 1.0, which shows that the self-enrichment mechanism represented by strong C-N, Mg-Al and Na-O anti-correlations may not be important as the metallicity reaches [M/H] > -1.0 dex. Based on the abundances of above-mentioned six elements and [Fe/H], we investigate age versus abundance relations and find some old super-metal-rich stars in our sample. Their properties of old age and being rich in metal are evidence for stellar migration. The age versus metallicity relations in low-[α/M] bins show unexpectedly positive slopes. We propose that the fresh metal-poor gas infalling on to the Galactic disc may be the precursor for this unexpected finding.

The influence of oceanographic scenarios on the population dynamics of demersal resources in the western Mediterranean: Hypothesis for hake and red shrimp off Balearic Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massutí, Enric; Monserrat, Sebastià; Oliver, Pere; Moranta, Joan; López-Jurado, José Luis; Marcos, Marta; Hidalgo, Manuel; Guijarro, Beatriz; Carbonell, Aina; Pereda, Pilar

2008-06-01

The aim of the present paper is to study the relationships between some climatic indices and parental stock, recruitment and accessibility to trawl fishery of hake ( Merluccius merluccius) and red shrimp ( Aristeus antennatus) off Balearic Islands (western Mediterranean). Available annual catch per unit effort, recruitment and spawning stock biomass have been used as biological data. As environmental data, the meso-scale IDEA index and the large-scale North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) indices have been used. To analyze possible links between these indices with the population dynamics of demersal resources, two non-linear approaches have been applied: (i) stock-recruitment relationships from Ricker and Beverton-Holt models, by sequentially incorporating environment factors; (ii) generalized additive modelling, both classical general and threshold non-additive models were considered. The latter simulate an abrupt change in explicative variables across different phases (time periods or climatic index values). The results have shown that two oceanographic scenarios around the Balearic Islands, associated with macro and meso-scale climate regimes, can influence the population dynamics of hake and red shrimp. This is especially true for recruitment, which seems to be enhanced during low NAO and IDEA indices periods. During these periods, colder-than-normal winters generate high amounts of cold Western Mediterranean Intermediate Waters (WIW) in the Gulf of Lions, which flow southwards and reach the Balearic Islands channels in spring, increasing the productivity in the area. This oceanographic scenario could also be favourable to the distribution of hake on the fishing grounds where the trawl fleet targets this species, increasing its accessibility to the fishery. Both spawning stock and abundance of red shrimp seems to be also enhanced by high MO index periods, which could reflect the increased presence of the saline and warm Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW) in the study area, extending over the fishing grounds of this species. The proposed interactions can be useful to assess and manage these important demersal resources.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2014-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.

2013-01-01

We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Predicting the spatiotemporal distributions of marine fish species utilizing earth system data in a maximum entropy modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Kerr, L. A.; Bridger, E.

2016-12-01

Changes in species distributions have been widely associated with climate change. Understanding how ocean conditions influence marine fish distributions is critical for elucidating the role of climate in ecosystem change and forecasting how fish may be distributed in the future. Species distribution models (SDMs) can enable estimation of the likelihood of encountering species in space or time as a function of environmental conditions. Traditional SDMs are applied to scientific-survey data that include both presences and absences. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models are promising tools as they can be applied to presence-only data, such as those collected from fisheries or citizen science programs. We used MaxEnt to relate the occurrence records of marine fish species (e.g. Atlantic herring, Atlantic mackerel, and butterfish) from NOAA Northeast Fisheries Observer Program to environmental conditions. Environmental variables from earth system data, such as sea surface temperature (SST), sea bottom temperature (SBT), Chlorophyll-a, bathymetry, North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), were matched with species occurrence for MaxEnt modeling the fish distributions in Northeast Shelf area. We developed habitat suitability maps for these species, and assessed the relative influence of environmental factors on their distributions. Overall, SST and Chlorophyll-a had greatest influence on their monthly distributions, with bathymetry and SBT having moderate influence and climate indices (NAO and AMO) having little influence. Across months, Atlantic herring distribution was most related to SST 10th percentile, and Atlantic mackerel and butterfish distributions were most related to previous month SST. The fish distributions were most affected by previous month Chlorophyll-a in summer months, which may indirectly indicate the accumulative impact of primary productivity. Results highlighted the importance of spatial and temporal scales when using SDMs to investigate the habitat suitability and distributions of a focal species. MaxEnt models have the potential to provide hindcasts of where species might have been in the past in relation to historical environmental conditions, nowcasts in relation to current conditions, or forecasts of future species distributions.

Decadal Variations in Eastern Canada's Taiga Wood Biomass Production Forced by Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions.

PubMed

Boucher, Etienne; Nicault, Antoine; Arseneault, Dominique; Bégin, Yves; Karami, Mehdi Pasha

2017-05-26

Across Eastern Canada (EC), taiga forests represent an important carbon reservoir, but the extent to which climate variability affects this ecosystem over decades remains uncertain. Here, we analyze an extensive network of black spruce (Picea mariana Mill.) ring width and wood density measurements and provide new evidence that wood biomass production is influenced by large-scale, internal ocean-atmosphere processes. We show that while black spruce wood biomass production is primarily governed by growing season temperatures, the Atlantic ocean conveys heat from the subtropics and influences the decadal persistence in taiga forests productivity. Indeed, we argue that 20-30 years periodicities in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as part of the the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) directly influence heat transfers to adjacent lands. Winter atmospheric conditions associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) might also impact EC's taiga forests, albeit indirectly, through its effect on SSTs and sea ice conditions in surrounding seas. Our work emphasizes that taiga forests would benefit from the combined effects of a warmer atmosphere and stronger ocean-to-land heat transfers, whereas a weakening of these transfers could cancel out, for decades or longer, the positive effects of climate change on Eastern Canada's largest ecosystem.

The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon

2014-01-01

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

The role of the Atlantic Water in multidecadal ocean variability in the Nordic and Barents Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yashayaev, Igor; Seidov, Dan

2015-03-01

The focus of this work is on the temporal and spatial variability of the Atlantic Water (AW). We analyze the existing historic hydrographic data from the World Ocean Database to document the long-term variability of the AW throughflow across the Norwegian Sea to the western Barents Sea. Interannual-to-multidecadal variability of water temperature, salinity and density are analyzed along six composite sections crossing the AW flow and coastal currents at six selected locations. The stations are lined up from southwest to northeast - from the northern North Sea (69°N) throughout the Norwegian Sea to the Kola Section in the Barents Sea (33°30‧E). The changing volume and characteristics of the AW throughflow dominate the hydrographic variability on decadal and longer time scales in the studied area. We examine the role of fluctuations of the volume of inflow versus the variable local factors, such as the air-sea interaction and mixing with the fresh coastal and cold Arctic waters, in controlling the long-term regional variability. It is shown that the volume of the AW, passing through the area and affecting the position of the outer edge of the warm and saline core, correlates well with temperature and salinity averaged over the central portions of the studied sections. The coastal flow (mostly associated with the Norwegian Coastal Current flowing over the continental shelf) is largely controlled by seasonal local heat and freshwater impacts. Temperature records at all six lines show a warming trend superimposed on a series of relatively warm and cold periods, which in most cases follow, with a delay of four to five years, the periods of relatively low and high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the periods of relatively high and low Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), respectively. In general, there is a relatively high correlation between the year-to-year changes of the NAO and AMO indices, which is to some extent reflected in the (delayed) AW temperature fluctuations. It takes about two years for freshening and salinification events and a much shorter time (of about a year or less) for cooling and warming episodes to propagate or spread across the region. This significant difference in the propagation rates of salinity and temperature anomalies is explained by the leading role of horizontal advection in the propagation of salinity anomalies, whereas temperature is also controlled by the competing air-sea interaction along the AW throughflow. Therefore, although a water parcel moves within the flow as a whole, the temperature, salinity and density anomalies split and propagate separately, with the temperature and density signals leading relative to the salinity signal. A new hydrographic index, coastal-to-offshore density step, is introduced to capture variability in the strength of the AW volume transport. This index shows the same cycles of variability as observed in temperature, NAO and AMO but without an obvious trend.

Emergence of localized patterns in globally coupled networks of relaxation oscillators with heterogeneous connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiser, Randolph J.; Rotstein, Horacio G.

2017-08-01

Oscillations in far-from-equilibrium systems (e.g., chemical, biochemical, biological) are generated by the nonlinear interplay of positive and negative feedback effects operating at different time scales. Relaxation oscillations emerge when the time scales between the activators and the inhibitors are well separated. In addition to the large-amplitude oscillations (LAOs) or relaxation type, these systems exhibit small-amplitude oscillations (SAOs) as well as abrupt transitions between them (canard phenomenon). Localized cluster patterns in networks of relaxation oscillators consist of one cluster oscillating in the LAO regime or exhibiting mixed-mode oscillations (LAOs interspersed with SAOs), while the other oscillates in the SAO regime. Because the individual oscillators are monostable, localized patterns are a network phenomenon that involves the interplay of the connectivity and the intrinsic dynamic properties of the individual nodes. Motivated by experimental and theoretical results on the Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction, we investigate the mechanisms underlying the generation of localized patterns in globally coupled networks of piecewise-linear relaxation oscillators where the global feedback term affects the rate of change of the activator (fast variable) and depends on the weighted sum of the inhibitor (slow variable) at any given time. We also investigate whether these patterns are affected by the presence of a diffusive type of coupling whose synchronizing effects compete with the symmetry-breaking global feedback effects.

Measurement of Mitochondrial Mass by Flow Cytometry during Oxidative Stress.

PubMed

Doherty, Edward; Perl, Andras

2017-07-01

Properly assessing mitochondrial health is crucial to understand their role in disease. MitoTracker green (MTG) and nonylacridine orange (NAO) are fluorescent probes which have been commonly used to assess mitochondrial mass. This is based on the assumption that both MTG and NAO accumulate in mitochondria regardless of the mitochondrial transmembrane potential (ΔΨ m ). Here, we utilized flow cytometry to evaluate the performance of these probes for assessment of mitochondrial mass relative to forward (FSC) and side scatter (SSC) in human peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL). In isolated mitochondria, two subpopulations were identified by FSC and SSC measurements which were matched to subpopulations stained by MTG and NAO. The performance of these dyes was examined under oxidative and nitrosative stress induced by rotenone and NOC-18 while N -acetylcysteine (NAC) was employed as an antioxidant. Production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and ΔΨ m were monitored in parallel. With respect to representation of mitochondrial mass, neither MTG nor NAO was affected by ΔΨ m . However, MTG showed significant correlation with cytosolic and mitochondrial ROS production and nitrosative stress. Our data suggest that NAO may be more suitable than MTG for assessment of mitochondrial mass by flow cytometry during oxidative stress.

The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Hurricane destructive power predictions based on historical storm and sea surface temperature data.

PubMed

Bogen, Kenneth T; Jones, Edwin D; Fischer, Larry E

2007-12-01

Forecasting destructive hurricane potential is complicated by substantial, unexplained intraannual variation in storm-specific power dissipation index (PDI, or integrated third power of wind speed), and interannual variation in annual accumulated PDI (APDI). A growing controversy concerns the recent hypothesis that the clearly positive trend in North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) since 1970 explains increased hurricane intensities over this period, and so implies ominous PDI and APDI growth as global warming continues. To test this "SST hypothesis" and examine its quantitative implications, a combination of statistical and probabilistic methods were applied to National Hurricane Center HURDAT best-track data on NAO hurricanes during 1880-2002, and corresponding National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction SST estimates. Notably, hurricane behavior was compared to corresponding hurricane-specific (i.e., spatiotemporally linked) SST; previous similar comparisons considered only SST averaged over large NAO regions. Contrary to the SST hypothesis, SST was found to vary in a monthly pattern inconsistent with that of corresponding PDI, and to be at best weakly associated with PDI or APDI despite strong correlation with corresponding mean latitude (R(2)= 0.55) or with combined mean location and a approximately 90-year periodic trend (R(2)= 0.70). Over the last century, the lower 75% of APDIs appear randomly sampled from a nearly uniform distribution, and the upper 25% of APDIs from a nearly lognormal distribution. From the latter distribution, a baseline (SST-independent) stochastic model was derived predicting that over the next half century, APDI will not likely exceed its maximum value over the last half century by more than a factor of 1.5. This factor increased to 2 using a baseline model modified to assume SST-dependence conditioned on an upper bound of the increasing NAO SST trend observed since 1970. An additional model was developed that predicts PDI statistics conditional on APDI. These PDI and APDI models can be used to estimate upper bounds on indices of hurricane power likely to be realized over the next century, under divergent assumptions regarding SST influence.

Discrete wavelet transform-based investigation into the variability of standardized precipitation index in Northwest China during 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Peng; Xia, Jun; Zhan, Chesheng; Zhang, Yongyong; Hu, Sheng

2018-04-01

In this study, the temporal variations of the standard precipitation index (SPI) were analyzed at different scales in Northwest China (NWC). Discrete wavelet transform (DWT) was used in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test in this study. This study also investigated the relationships between original precipitation and different periodic components of SPI series with datasets spanning 55 years (1960-2014). The results showed that with the exception of the annual and summer SPI in the Inner Mongolia Inland Rivers Basin (IMIRB), spring SPI in the Qinghai Lake Rivers Basin (QLRB), and spring SPI in the Central Asia Rivers Basin (CARB), it had an increasing trend in other regions for other time series. In the spring, summer, and autumn series, though the MK trends test in most areas was at the insignificant level, they showed an increasing trend in precipitation. Meanwhile, the SPI series in most subbasins of NWC displayed a turning point in 1980-1990, with the significant increasing levels after 2000. Additionally, there was a significant difference between the trend of the original SPI series and the largest approximations. The annual and seasonal SPI series were composed of the short periodicities, which were less than a decade. The MK value would increase by adding the multiple D components (and approximations), and the MK value of the combined series was in harmony with that of the original series. Additionally, the major trend of the annual SPI in NWC was based on the four kinds of climate indices (e.g., Atlantic Oscillation [AO], North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO], Pacific Decadal Oscillation [PDO], and El Nino-Southern Oscillation index [ENSO/NINO]), especially the ENSO.

Pharmacokinetics and efficiency of brain targeting of ginsenosides Rg1 and Rb1 given as Nao-Qing microemulsion.

PubMed

Li, Tao; Shu, Ya-Jun; Cheng, Jia-Yin; Liang, Run-Cheng; Dian, Shao-Na; Lv, Xiao-Xun; Yang, Meng-Qi; Huang, Shu-Ling; Chen, Gang; Yang, Fan

2015-02-01

Nao-Qing solution has been shown to be clinically effective in the treatment of acute ischemic stroke (AIS). The purpose of this study was to improve the pharmacokinetics and brain uptake of Nao-Qing, administered as an oil-in-water microemulsion. Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were given Nao-Qing microemulsion by intranasal or intragastric routes. Samples of blood, brain, heart, liver, lung and kidney were collected at pre-determined time intervals, and the contents of ginsenosides Rg1 and Rb1 (active ingredients of the Nao-Qing microemulsion) were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The results showed that contents of ginsenosides Rg1 and Rb1 in Nao-Qing microemulsion was 8475.13 ± 54.61 μg/ml and 6633.42 ± 527.27 μg/ml, respectively, and that the particle size, pH and viscosity of the microemulsion were 19.9 ± 5.07 nm, 6.1 and 3.056 × 10(-3 )Pas, respectively. Absorption of ginsenoside Rg1 was higher than that of ginsenoside Rb1, which was barely detectable after intragastric administration; furthermore, the concentration of ginsenoside Rg1 in blood and other tissues at each time point was lower for intragastric than for intranasal administration. Compared with intragastric administration, intranasal administration resulted in a shorter tmax (0.08 versus 1 h), a higher Cmax (16.65 versus 11.29 μg/ml), and a higher area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) (592.91 versus 101.70 μgċh/ml) in the brain. The relative rates of uptake (Re) and the ratio of peak concentration (Ce) in the brain were 126.31% and 147.48% for ginsenoside Rg1, respectively. These data illustrate that intranasal administration can promote the absorption of drugs in Nao-Qing microemulsion and achieve fast effect.

Comparative glacio-climatological analysis of mass balance variability along the geographical margin of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehoczky, Annamária; Kern, Zoltán; Pongrácz, Rita

2014-05-01

Glacio-climatological studies recognise glacier mass balance changes as high-confident climate indicators. The climatic sensitivity of a glacier does not simply depend on regional climate variability but also influenced via large- and mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns. This study focuses on recent changes in the mass balance using records from three border regions of Europe, and investigates the relationships between the seasonal mass balance components, regional climatic conditions, and distant atmospheric forcing. Since glaciers in different macro-climatological conditions (i.e., mid-latitudes or high-latitudes, dry-continental or maritime regions) may present strongly diverse mass balance characteristics, the three analysed regions were selected from different glacierised macroregions (using the database of the World Glacier Monitoring Service). These regions belong to the Caucasus Mountains (Central Europe macroregion), the Polar Ural (Northern Asia macroregion), and Svalbard (Arctic Islands macroregion). The analysis focuses on winter, summer, and annual mass balance series of eight glaciers. The climatic variables (atmospheric pressure, air temperature, precipitation) and indices of teleconnection patterns (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation) are used from the gridded databases of the University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Environmental Prediction. However, the period and length of available mass balance data in the selected regions vary greatly (the first full record is in 1958, Polar Ural; the last is in 2010, Caucasus Mountains), a comparative analysis can be carried out for the period of 1968-1981. Since glaciers from different regions respond to large- and mesoscale climatic forcings differently, and because the mass balance of glaciers within a region often co-vary, our specific objectives are (i) to examine the variability and the integrative climatic signal in the averaged mass balance records of the selected regions; (ii) to analyse the possible coupling between the mass balance and climatic variables, including the dominant patterns of Northern Hemisphere climate variability; and (iii) to compare the main characteristics of the three regions. Furthermore, (iv) a short discussion is given considering the significant decreasing trend of the cumulative annual mass balances in every region under the detected climatic changes in the second half of the 20th century. Preliminary results suggest that the strongest teleconnection links could be between winter mass balance and winter NAO for the Polar Ural (r=0.46, p<0.05), and between annual mass balance and PDO for Svalbard (r=-0.43, p<0.05). Neither seasonal, nor annual mass balance records showed significant correlation with any of the examined circulation indices for the Caucasus.

Murres, capelin and ocean climate: Inter-annual associations across a decadal shift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regular, P.M.; Shuhood, F.; Power, T.; Montevecchi, W.A.; Robertson, G.J.; Ballam, D.; Piatt, John F.; Nakashima, B.

2009-01-01

To ensure energy demands for reproduction are met, it is essential that marine birds breed during periods of peak food availability. We examined associations of the breeding chronology of common murres (Uria aalge) with the timing of the inshore arrival of their primary prey, capelin (Mallotus villosus) from 1980 to 2006 across a period of pervasive change in the Northwest Atlantic ecosystem. We also assessed the influence of ocean temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; an index of winter climate and oceanography) on these interactions. We found a lagged linear relationship between variations in murre breeding chronology and the timing of capelin arrival in the previous year. On a decadal level, we found a non-linear threshold relationship between ocean temperature and the timing of capelin arrival and murre breeding. Centennially anomalous cold water temperatures in 1991 generated a marked shift in the timing of capelin spawning inshore and murre breeding, delaying both by more than 2 weeks. By the mid-1990s, ocean temperatures returned to pre-perturbation levels, whereas the temporal breeding responses of capelin and murres were delayed for a decade or more. Oceanographic conditions (temperature, NAO) were poor predictors of the timing of capelin arrival inshore in the current year compared to the previous one. Our findings suggest that knowledge of the timing of capelin availability in the previous year provides a robust cue for the long-lived murres, allowing them to achieve temporal overlap between breeding and peak capelin availability. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Predictability and possible earlier awareness of extreme precipitation across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavers, David; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David; Zsoter, Ervin

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrological events can cause large socioeconomic damages in Europe. In winter, a large proportion of these flood episodes are associated with atmospheric rivers, a region of intense water vapour transport within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. When preparing for such extreme events, forecasts of precipitation from numerical weather prediction models or river discharge forecasts from hydrological models are generally used. Given the strong link between water vapour transport (integrated vapour transport IVT) and heavy precipitation, it is possible that IVT could be used to warn of extreme events. Furthermore, as IVT is located in extratropical cyclones, it is hypothesized to be a more predictable variable due to its link with synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics. In this research, we firstly provide an overview of the predictability of IVT and precipitation forecasts, and secondly introduce and evaluate the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT. The EFI is a tool that has been developed to evaluate how ensemble forecasts differ from the model climate, thus revealing the extremeness of the forecast. The ability of the IVT EFI to capture extreme precipitation across Europe during winter 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 is presented. The results show that the IVT EFI is more capable than the precipitation EFI of identifying extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase. However, the precipitation EFI is superior during the negative NAO phase and at shorter lead times. An IVT EFI example is shown for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlighting its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes.

Thirteen thousand years of southeastern Mediterranean climate variability inferred from an integrative planktic foraminiferal-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mojtahid, Meryem; Manceau, Rose; Schiebel, Ralf; Hennekam, Rick; de Lange, Gert J.

2015-04-01

Over the past 13 ka, the hydrology for the southeastern Mediterranean was mainly regulated by Nile River runoff, which in turn was controlled by climate forcing. Being affected by orbital forcing, and the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), planktic foraminiferal data (assemblages, stable isotopes, and size properties) indicate three major periods. (1) From 13.0 to 11.5 ka, the upper water column was well-mixed, cold, and productive. (2) From 11.5 to 6.4 ka, hydrology and foraminifers were affected by intensified monsoonal circulation. The enhanced size of Globigerinoides ruber is interpreted as a response to environmental stress caused by low-saline waters. (3) After 6.4 ka, the southward retreat of the ITCZ caused a decrease in freshwater discharge and hence a return to ecological equilibrium. A drop in foraminifer diversity from 2.9 to 1.1 ka was related to more arid conditions, and limited supply of nutrients from the Nile River. We suggest a link to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) marking the Roman Humid Period in the western Mediterranean, and in anti-phase with the southeastern Mediterranean aridity. Because Nile River runoff exerted major control on surface hydrology, a connection to Indian and Pacific climate systems partially controlling precipitation over the Nile catchment area is hypothesized. From 1.1 to 0.54 ka, high foraminifer diversity indicates humid conditions synchronous to the Medieval Climate Anomaly under a positive NAO state. Over the past 0.54 ka encompassing the Little Ice Age, another arid period is indicated by a drop in foraminifer diversity.

Network properties of interstitial cells of Cajal affect intestinal pacemaker activity and motor patterns, according to a mathematical model of weakly coupled oscillators.

PubMed

Wei, Ruihan; Parsons, Sean P; Huizinga, Jan D

2017-03-01

What is the central question of this study? What are the effects of interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC) network perturbations on intestinal pacemaker activity and motor patterns? What is the main finding and its importance? Two-dimensional modelling of the ICC pacemaker activity according to a phase model of weakly coupled oscillators showed that network properties (coupling strength between oscillators, frequency gradient and frequency noise) strongly influence pacemaker network activity and subsequent motor patterns. The model explains motor patterns observed in physiological conditions and provides predictions and testable hypotheses for effects of ICC loss and frequency modulation on the motor patterns. Interstitial cells of Cajal (ICC) are the pacemaker cells of gut motility and are associated with motility disorders. Interstitial cells of Cajal form a network, but the contributions of its network properties to gut physiology and dysfunction are poorly understood. We modelled an ICC network as a two-dimensional network of weakly coupled oscillators with a frequency gradient and showed changes over time in video and graphical formats. Model parameters were obtained from slow-wave-driven contraction patterns in the mouse intestine and pacemaker slow-wave activities from the cat intestine. Marked changes in propagating oscillation patterns (including changes from propagation to non-propagating) were observed by changing network parameters (coupling strength between oscillators, the frequency gradient and frequency noise), which affected synchronization, propagation velocity and occurrence of dislocations (termination of an oscillation). Complete uncoupling of a circumferential ring of oscillators caused the proximal and distal section to desynchronize, but complete synchronization was maintained with only a single oscillator connecting the sections with high enough coupling. The network of oscillators could withstand loss; even with 40% of oscillators lost randomly within the network, significant synchronization and anterograde propagation remained. A local increase in pacemaker frequency diminished anterograde propagation; the effects were strongly dependent on location, frequency gradient and coupling strength. In summary, the model puts forth the hypothesis that fundamental changes in oscillation patterns (ICC slow-wave activity or circular muscle contractions) can occur through physiological modulation of network properties. Strong evidence is provided to accept the ICC network as a system of coupled oscillators. © 2016 The Authors. Experimental Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

Normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models

PubMed Central

Majda, Andrew J.; Franzke, Christian; Crommelin, Daan

2009-01-01

The systematic development of reduced low-dimensional stochastic climate models from observations or comprehensive high-dimensional climate models is an important topic for atmospheric low-frequency variability, climate sensitivity, and improved extended range forecasting. Here techniques from applied mathematics are utilized to systematically derive normal forms for reduced stochastic climate models for low-frequency variables. The use of a few Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) (also known as Principal Component Analysis, Karhunen–Loéve and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition) depending on observational data to span the low-frequency subspace requires the assessment of dyad interactions besides the more familiar triads in the interaction between the low- and high-frequency subspaces of the dynamics. It is shown below that the dyad and multiplicative triad interactions combine with the climatological linear operator interactions to simultaneously produce both strong nonlinear dissipation and Correlated Additive and Multiplicative (CAM) stochastic noise. For a single low-frequency variable the dyad interactions and climatological linear operator alone produce a normal form with CAM noise from advection of the large scales by the small scales and simultaneously strong cubic damping. These normal forms should prove useful for developing systematic strategies for the estimation of stochastic models from climate data. As an illustrative example the one-dimensional normal form is applied below to low-frequency patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a climate model. The results here also illustrate the short comings of a recent linear scalar CAM noise model proposed elsewhere for low-frequency variability. PMID:19228943

Differential modulation of global and local neural oscillations in REM sleep by homeostatic sleep regulation

PubMed Central

Kim, Bowon; Kocsis, Bernat; Hwang, Eunjin; Kim, Youngsoo; Strecker, Robert E.; McCarley, Robert W.; Choi, Jee Hyun

2017-01-01

Homeostatic rebound in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep normally occurs after acute sleep deprivation, but REM sleep rebound settles on a persistently elevated level despite continued accumulation of REM sleep debt during chronic sleep restriction (CSR). Using high-density EEG in mice, we studied how this pattern of global regulation is implemented in cortical regions with different functions and network architectures. We found that across all areas, slow oscillations repeated the behavioral pattern of persistent enhancement during CSR, whereas high-frequency oscillations showed progressive increases. This pattern followed a common rule despite marked topographic differences. The findings suggest that REM sleep slow oscillations may translate top-down homeostatic control to widely separated brain regions whereas fast oscillations synchronizing local neuronal ensembles escape this global command. These patterns of EEG oscillation changes are interpreted to reconcile two prevailing theories of the function of sleep, synaptic homeostasis and sleep dependent memory consolidation. PMID:28193862

Differential modulation of global and local neural oscillations in REM sleep by homeostatic sleep regulation.

PubMed

Kim, Bowon; Kocsis, Bernat; Hwang, Eunjin; Kim, Youngsoo; Strecker, Robert E; McCarley, Robert W; Choi, Jee Hyun

2017-02-28

Homeostatic rebound in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep normally occurs after acute sleep deprivation, but REM sleep rebound settles on a persistently elevated level despite continued accumulation of REM sleep debt during chronic sleep restriction (CSR). Using high-density EEG in mice, we studied how this pattern of global regulation is implemented in cortical regions with different functions and network architectures. We found that across all areas, slow oscillations repeated the behavioral pattern of persistent enhancement during CSR, whereas high-frequency oscillations showed progressive increases. This pattern followed a common rule despite marked topographic differences. The findings suggest that REM sleep slow oscillations may translate top-down homeostatic control to widely separated brain regions whereas fast oscillations synchronizing local neuronal ensembles escape this global command. These patterns of EEG oscillation changes are interpreted to reconcile two prevailing theories of the function of sleep, synaptic homeostasis and sleep dependent memory consolidation.

North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

Hydroclimate of the northeastern United States is highly sensitive to solar forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichols, Jonathan E.; Huang, Yongsong

2012-02-01

Dramatic hydrological fluctuations strongly impact human society, but the driving mechanisms for these changes are unclear. One suggested driver is solar variability, but supporting paleoclimate evidence is lacking. Therefore, long, continuous, high-resolution records from strategic locations are crucial for resolving the scientific debate regarding sensitivity of climate to solar forcing. We present a 6800-year, decadally-resolved biomarker and multidecadally-resolved hydrogen isotope record of hydroclimate from a coastal Maine peatland, The Great Heath (TGH). Regional moisture balance responds strongly and consistently to solar forcing at centennial to millennial timescales, with solar minima concurrent with wet conditions. We propose that the Arctic/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO) can amplify small solar fluctuations, producing the reconstructed hydrological variations. The Sun may be entering a weak phase, analogous to the Maunder minimum, which could lead to more frequent flooding in the northeastern US at this multidecadal timescale.

Sodium-Oxygen Battery: Steps Toward Reality.

PubMed

Landa-Medrano, Imanol; Li, Chunmei; Ortiz-Vitoriano, Nagore; Ruiz de Larramendi, Idoia; Carrasco, Javier; Rojo, Teófilo

2016-04-07

Rechargeable metal-oxygen batteries are receiving significant interest as a possible alternative to current state of the art lithium ion batteries due to their potential to provide higher gravimetric energies, giving significantly lighter or longer-lasting batteries. Recent advances suggest that the Na-O2 battery, in many ways analogous to Li-O2 yet based on the reversible formation of sodium superoxide (NaO2), has many advantages such as a low charge overpotential (∼100 mV) resulting in improved efficiency. In this Perspective, we discuss the current state of knowledge in Na-O2 battery technology, with an emphasis on the latest experimental studies, as well as theoretical models. We offer special focus on the principle outstanding challenges and issues and address the advantages/disadvantages of the technology when compared with Li-O2 batteries as well as other state-of-the-art battery technologies. We finish by detailing the direction required to make Na-O2 batteries both commercially and technologically viable.

The Holocene floods and their affinity to climatic variability in the western Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Shubhra; Shukla, A. D.; Bartarya, S. K.; Marh, B. S.; Juyal, Navin

2017-08-01

The present study in the middle Satluj valley explores the sedimentary records of past floods with an objective to understand the climatic processes responsible for their genesis. Based on lithostratigraphy, sedimentology, and grain size variability, 25 flood events are identified. The geochemical data indicate that the flood sediments were mostly generated and transported from the higher Himalayan crystalline and the trans-Himalaya. Our study suggests that the floods were generated by Landslide Lake Outburst Floods (LLOFs) during extreme precipitation events. However, the existing database does not allow us to negate the contribution from Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Field stratigraphy supported by optical chronology indicates four major flood phases that are dated to 13.4-10.4, 8.3-3.6, 2.2-1.4, and < 1.4 ka (kilo-annum). These phases correspond to the cooler and less wet conditions and broadly correlate with the phases of negative Arctic Oscillation (- AO) and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (- NAO). Thus, implying coupling between the moisture-laden monsoon circulation and southward penetrating mid-latitude westerly troughs for extreme precipitation events and consequent LLOFs. Additionally, a broad synchronicity in Holocene floods between the western Himalaya and across the mid-latitudinal region (30°N-40°N) suggests a synoptic scale Arctic and Atlantic climate variability.

Arctic Sea Ice Export Through Fram Strait and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, Donald J.; Koblinsky, Chester (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A link is found between the variability of Arctic sea ice export through Ram Strait and the phase of the longest atmospheric planetary wave (zonal wave 1) in SLP for the period 1958-1997. Previous studies have identified a link between From Strait ice export and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but this link has been described as unstable because of a lack of consistency over time scales longer than the last two decades. Inconsistent and low correlations are also found between From Strait ice export and the Arctic Oscillation (AD) index. This paper shows that the phase of zonal wave 1 explains 60% - 70% of the simulated From Strait ice export variance over the Goodyear period 1958 - 1997. Unlike the NAB and AD links, these high variances are consistent for both the first and second halves of the Goodyear period. This consistency is attributed to the sensitivity of the wave I phase at high latitudes to the presence of secondary low pressure systems in the Barents Sea that serve to drive sea ice southward through From Strait. These results provide further evidence that the phase of zonal wave 1 in SLP at high latitudes drives regional as well as hemispheric low frequency Arctic Ocean and sea ice variability.

Baffin Island and West Greenland Current Systems in northern Baffin Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Münchow, Andreas; Falkner, Kelly K.; Melling, Humfrey

2015-03-01

Temperature, salinity, and direct velocity observations from northern Baffin Bay are presented from a summer 2003 survey. The data reveal interactions between fresh and cold Arctic waters advected southward along Baffin Island and salty and warm Atlantic waters advected northward along western Greenland. Geostrophic currents estimated from hydrography are compared to measured ocean currents above 600 m depth. The Baffin Island Current is well constrained by the geostrophic thermal wind relation, but the West Greenland Current is not. Furthermore, both currents are better described as current systems that contain multiple velocity cores and eddies. We describe a surface-intensified Baffin Island Current seaward of the continental slope off Canada and a bottom-intensified West Greenland Current over the continental slope off Greenland. Acoustic Doppler current profiler observations suggest that the West Greenland Current System advected about 3.8 ± 0.27 Sv (Sv = 106 m3 s-1) towards the north-west at this time. The most prominent features were a surface intensified coastal current advecting 0.5 Sv and a bottom intensified slope current advecting about 2.5 Sv in the same direction. Most of this north-westward circulation turned southward in the Baffin Island Current System. The Baffin Island system was transporting 5.1 ± 0.24 Sv to the south-east at the time that includes additional contributions from Nares Strait to the north (1.0 ± 0.2 Sv) and Lancaster Sound to the east (1.0 ± 0.2 Sv). Net freshwater fluxes were 72 and 187 mSv for the West Greenland and Baffin Island Currents, respectively. Empirical uncertainty arises from unknown temporal variations at weekly time scales and pertubations introduced by unresolved eddies. Eddies with 10 km horizontal and 400 m vertical scales were common and recirculated up to 1 Sv. Our 2003 observations represent conditions when the North-Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) was close to zero. Analysis of historical hydrographic data averaged along isobaths during NAO-positive years reveals a baroclinic circulation in Baffin Bay more intense than 2003 with stronger southward flow of fresher Arctic waters along Baffin Island and stronger northward inflow of saltier Atlantic waters along Greenland. During negative NAO years this cyclonic circulation weakens as evidenced by a 1979 synoptic survey of the hydrography along Baffin Island.

Long-term (1998 vs. 2010) large-scale comparison of soft-bottom benthic macrofauna composition in the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonifácio, Paulo; Grémare, Antoine; Gauthier, Olivier; Romero-Ramirez, Alicia; Bichon, Sabrina; Amouroux, Jean-Michel; Labrune, Céline

2018-01-01

We achieved a long term (i.e., 1998 vs. 2010) large scale (i.e., whole Gulf of Lions) study of benthic macrofauna composition in the Gulf of Lions based on the resampling of 91 stations located along 21 inshore-offshore transects. Results show that the 3 main benthic communities identified in 1998 were still present in 2010 although their composition changed. Using only year and station of sampling we found a significant space-time interaction explaining changes in macrofaunal community composition, and, in this study, stations differ primarily in terms of depth and distance to the Rhône river mouth. Temporal changes in benthic macrofauna composition were clearly most important at shallow stations (i.e., in the Littoral Fine Sand community) than at deep ones (i.e., Terrigenous Coastal Mud community). These results are in good agreement with the current paradigm according to which climatic oscillations such as NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and WeMO (Western Mediterranean Oscillation) are indirectly (i.e., through changes in the frequency of occurrence and the intensity of storms) controlling benthic macrofauna composition in the Gulf of Lions. This hypothesis is further supported by a meta-analysis of changes in the average and maximal yearly abundances of the polychaete Ditrupa arietina. At last, the spatial modelling of 1998 and 2010 benthic macrofauna compositions both suggested a significant effect of Rhône River inputs on the spatial distribution of benthic macrofauna in the Gulf of Lions.

ATP oscillations mediate inductive action of FGF and Shh signalling on prechondrogenic condensation.

PubMed

Kwon, Hyuck Joon

2013-01-01

Skeletal patterns are prefigured by prechondrogenic condensation. Morphogens such as fibroblast growth factor (FGF) and sonic hedgehog (Shh) specify the skeletal patterns in limb development. However, how morphogens regulate prechondrogenic condensation has remained unclear. Recently, it was demonstrated that synchronized Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) oscillations play a critical role in prechondrogenic condensation. Thus, the present study has focused on whether ATP oscillations mediate the actions of major developmental morphogens such as FGF and Shh on prechondrogenic condensation. It has been shown that both FGF and Shh signalling promoted cellular condensation but not chondrogenic differentiation and also induced ATP oscillations. In addition, blockage of FGF and Shh signalling prevented both ATP oscillations and prechondrogenic condensation. Furthermore, it was found that inhibition of ATP oscillations suppressed FGF/Shh-induced prechondrogenic condensation. These results indicate that ATP oscillations mediate the actions of FGF and Shh signalling on prechondrogenic condensation. This study proposes that morphogens organize skeletal patterns via ATP oscillations. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

77 FR 33980 - National Appeals Office Rules of Procedure

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-08

... National Appeals Office (NAO), a division of NMFS' Office of Management and Budget within NOAA. NAO's... Section 303A of the Magnuson-Steven Fishery Conservation and Management Act. The proposed procedures could... Goodman, National Appeals Office, Office of Management and Budget, NMFS, 1315 East West Hwy., Room 9553...

Sedimentary processes on the NW Iberian Continental Shelf since the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martins, Virgínia; Figueira, Rubens Cesar Lopes; França, Elvis Joacir; Ferreira, Paulo Alves de Lima; Martins, Paula; Santos, José Francisco; Dias, João Alveirinho; Laut, Lazaro L. M.; Monge Soares, António M.; Silva, Eduardo Ferreira da; Rocha, Fernando

2012-05-01

The OMEX core CD110 W90, retrieved from the Douro Mud Patch (DMP) off the River Douro in the north of Portugal, records the period since the beginning of Little Ice Age (LIA). The core chronology is based upon the data attributes for 210Pb, 137Cs and a 14C dating from a level near the core base. Geochemical, granulometric, microfaunal (benthic foraminifera) and compositional data suggest the occurrence of precipitation changes which may have been, at least partially, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that contributes to the regulation of the ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the North Atlantic. Southwesterly Atlantic storm track is associated with the negative phases of the NAO, when the Azores High is anomalously weak, higher oceanographic hydrodynamism, downwelling events and increased rainfall generally occurs. Prevalence of these characteristics during the LIA left a record that corresponds to phases of major floods. During these phases the DMP received a higher contribution of relatively coarse-grained terrigenous sediments, enriched in quartz particles, which diluted the contribution of other minerals, as indicated by reduced concentrations of several lithogenic chemical elements such as: Al, As, Ba, Ce, Co, Cu, Fe, K, La, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Ni, P, Rb, Sc, Sn, Th, V and Y. The presence of biogenic carbonate particles also underwent dilution, as revealed by the smaller abundance of foraminifera and correlative lower concentrations of Ca and Sr. During this period, the DMP also received an increased contribution of organic matter, indicated by higher values of lignin remains and a benthic foraminifera high productivity index, or BFHP, which gave rise to early diagenetic changes with pyrite formation. Since the beginning of the 20th century this contribution diminished, probably due to several drier periods and the impact of human activities in the river basins, e.g. construction of dams, or, on the littoral areas, construction of hard-engineering structures and sand extraction activities. During the first half of the 20th century mainly positive phases of the NAO prevailed, caused by the above normal strengthening of the subtropical high pressure centre of the Azores and the deepening of the low pressure centre in Iceland. These phases may have contributed to the reduction in the supply of both terrigenous sediments and organic matter from shallow water to the DMP. During the positive phases of the NAO, sedimentation became finer. The development of mining and industrial activities during the 20th century is marked, in this core, by higher concentrations of Pb. Furthermore, the erosion of heaps resulting from wolfram exploitation leaves its signature as a peak of W concentrations recorded in the sediments of the DMP deposited between the 1960s and the 1990s. Wolfram exploitation was an important activity in the middle part of the 20th century, particularly during the period of the Second World War.

Contrasting effects of climatic variability on the demography of a trans-equatorial migratory seabird.

PubMed

Genovart, Meritxell; Sanz-Aguilar, Ana; Fernández-Chacón, Albert; Igual, Jose M; Pradel, Roger; Forero, Manuela G; Oro, Daniel

2013-01-01

Large-scale seasonal climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index or the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), account for major variations in weather and climate around the world and may influence population dynamics in many organisms. However, assessing the extent of climate impacts on species and their life-history traits requires reliable quantitative statistical approaches. We used a new analytical tool in mark-recapture, the multi-event modelling, to simultaneously assess the influence of climatic variation on multiple demographic parameters (i.e. adult survival, transient probability, reproductive skipping and nest dispersal) at two Mediterranean colonies of the Cory's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, a trans-equatorial migratory long-lived seabird. We also analysed the impact of climate in the breeding success at the two colonies. We found a clear temporal variation of survival for Cory's shearwaters, strongly associated to the large-scale SOI especially in one of the colonies (up to 66% of variance explained). Atlantic hurricane season is modulated by the SOI and coincides with shearwater migration to their wintering areas, directly affecting survival probabilities. However, the SOI was a better predictor of survival probabilities than the frequency of hurricanes; thus, we cannot discard an indirect additive effect of SOI via food availability. Accordingly, the proportion of transients was also correlated with SOI values, indicating higher costs of first reproduction (resulting in either mortality or permanent dispersal) when bad environmental conditions occurred during winter before reproduction. Breeding success was also affected by climatic factors, the NAO explaining c. 41% of variance, probably as a result of its effect in the timing of peak abundance of squid and small pelagics, the main prey for shearwaters. No climatic effect was found either on reproductive skipping or on nest dispersal. Contrarily to what we expect for a long-lived organism, large-scale climatic indexes had a more pronounced effect on survival and transient probabilities than on less sensitive fitness parameters such reproductive skipping or nest dispersal probabilities. The potential increase in hurricane frequency because of global warming may interact with other global change agents (such as incidental bycatch and predation by alien species) nowadays impacting shearwaters, affecting future viability of populations. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Possible connection between large volcanic eruptions and level rise episodes in the Dead Sea Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bookman, R.; Filin, S.; Avni, Y.; Rosenfeld, D.; Marco, S.

2014-12-01

The June 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption perturbed the atmosphere, triggering short-term worldwide changes in climate. The following winter was anomalously wet in the Levant, with a ~2-meter increase in the Dead Sea level that created a morphological terrace along the lake's shore. Given the global effects of volcanogenic aerosols, we tested the hypothesis that the 1991-92 shore terrace is a modern analogue to the linkage between past volcanic eruptions and a sequence of shore terraces in the Dead Sea Basin. Analysis of precipitation series from Jerusalem showed a significant positive correlation between the Dust Veil Index (DVI) of the modern eruptions and annual rainfall. The DVI was found to explain nearly 50% of the variability in the annual rainfall, such that greater DVI means more rainfall. Other factors that may affect the annual rainfall in the region as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) were incorporated along with the DVI in a linear multiple regression model. It was found that the NAO did not contribute anything except for increased noise, but the added SOI increased the explained variability of rainfall to more than 60%. Volcanic eruptions with a VEI of 6, as in the Pinatubo, occurred about once a century during the Holocene and the last glacial-interglacial cycle. This occurrence is similar to the frequency of shore terrace build-up during the Lake Lisan desiccation. Sixteen shore terraces, detected using airborne laser scanning data, were interpreted as indicating short-term level rises due to episodes of enhanced precipitation and runoff during the dramatic drop in Lake Lisan's (palaeo-Dead Sea) level at the end of the LGM. The terraces were compared with a time series of volcanogenic sulfate from the GISP2 record, and similar numbers of sulfate concentration peaks and terraces were found. Furthermore, a significant correlation was found between SO4 concentration peaks and the terraces heights. This correlation may indicate a link between the explosivity, magnitude of stratospheric injection, and the impact on the northern hemisphere water balance. The record of such short-term climato-hydrological effects is made possible by the dramatic desiccation of Lake Lisan. Detailed records of such events provide a demonstration of global climatic teleconnections.

Middle-to-late Holocene palaeoenvironmental reconstruction from the A294 ice-cave record (Central Pyrenees, northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sancho, Carlos; Belmonte, Ánchel; Bartolomé, Miguel; Moreno, Ana; Leunda, María; López-Martínez, Jerónimo

2018-02-01

Perennial ice deposits in caves represent unique, but underexplored, terrestrial sequences that potentially contain outstanding palaeoclimatic records. Here, we present a pioneer palaeoenvironmental study of an ice deposit preserved in a small sag-type cave (A294) in the Central Pyrenees (northern Iberian Peninsula). The 9.25-m-thick sequence, which is dated from 6100 ± 107 to 1888 ± 64 cal BP, represents the oldest known firn ice record worldwide. The stratigraphy (detrital layers, unconformities, and cross stratification), plant macrofossils, and isotopic signature (similarity between the ice linear distribution, δ2H = 7.83δ18O + 8.4, and the Global Meteoric Water Line) of the ice point to the diagenesis of snow introduced to the cave by winter snowstorms. Four phases of rapid ice accumulation (6100-5515, 4945-4250, 3810-3155, and 2450-1890 cal BP) are related to wetter and colder winters. Comparison of the isotopic composition (δ18O and deuterium excess) of the ice with other paleoclimate records show that both source effects and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mechanism exert a dominant influence on the ice cave record. The NAO signal may be a combination of source effects and rainfall amount. Three intervals with low ice accumulation occurred between the phases of rapid accumulation and were related to drier, and possibly warmer, winters. These centennial-scale episodes appear to be in-phase with regional arid events, as established from high altitude lacustrine records and can be correlated to global Rapid Climate Change events. The current warming trend has dramatically decreased the volume of the ice deposit in cave A294.

Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

2009-03-01

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.

A reversal of the shift towards earlier spring phenology in several Mediterranean reptiles and amphibians during the 1998-2013 warming slowdown.

PubMed

Prodon, Roger; Geniez, Philippe; Cheylan, Marc; Devers, Florence; Chuine, Isabelle; Besnard, Aurelien

2017-12-01

Herps, especially amphibians, are particularly susceptible to climate change, as temperature tightly controls many parameters of their biological cycle-above all, their phenology. The timing of herps' activity or migration period-in particular the dates of their first appearance in spring and first breeding-and the shift to earlier dates in response to warming since the last quarter of the 20 th century has often been described up to now as a nearly monotonic trend towards earlier phenological events. In this study, we used citizen science data opportunistically collected on reptiles and amphibians in the northern Mediterranean basin over a period of 32 years to explore temporal variations in herp phenology. For 17 common species, we measured shifts in the date of the species' first spring appearance-which may be the result of current changes in climate-and regressed the first appearance date against temperatures and precipitations. Our results confirmed the expected overall trend towards earlier first spring appearances from 1983 to 1997, and show that the first appearance date of both reptiles and amphibians fits well with the temperature in late winter. However, the trend towards earlier dates was stopped or even reversed in most species between 1998 and 2013. We interpret this reversal as a response to cooling related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the late winter and early spring. During the positive NAO episodes, for certain species only (mainly amphibians), the effect of a warm weather, which tends to advance the phenology, seems to be counterbalanced by the adverse effects of the relative dryness. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The detailed chemistry and thermodynamics of sodium in oxygen-rich flames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hynes, A. J.; Steinberg, M.; Schofield, K.

1982-01-01

Measurement of sodium and OH concentrations in ten oxygen-rich H2/O2/N2 flames by respective saturated and low-power laser induced fluorescence techniques have permitted a detailed examination of the pronounced flame chemistry of sodium in such oxygen rich media. Previous interpretations have been shown to be largely incomplete or in error. The flame downstream profiles indicate that the amount of free sodium tracks the decay of H-atom and as the flame radicals decay sodium becomes increasingly bound in a molecular form. A detailed kinetic model indicates that the sodium is distributed between NaOH and NaO2 species. Concentrations of NaO are very small and NaH negligible. The actual distribution is controlled by the state of equilibrium of the flames' basic free radicals. Na, NaO2 and NaOH are all coupled to one another by fast reactions which can rapidly interconvert one to another as flame conditions vary. Above about 2000K, NaOH becomes dominant whereas NaO2 plays an increasingly important contribution at lower temperatures.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

He, Mingfu; Lau, Kah Chun; Ren, Xiaodi

Alkali metal-oxygen batteries are of great interests for energy storage because of their unparalleled theoretical energy densities. Particularly attractive is the emerging Na-O 2 battery because of the formation of superoxide as the discharge product. Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) is a promising solvent for this battery but its instability towards Na makes it impractical in the Na-O 2 battery. Here in this paper, we report the enhanced stability of Na in DMSO solutions containing concentrated sodium trifluoromethanesulfonimide (NaTFSI) salts (>3molkg -1). Raman spectra of NaTFSI/DMSO electrolytes and abinitio molecular dynamics simulation reveal the Na + solvation number in DMSO and themore » formation of Na(DMSO) 3(TFSI)-like solvation structure. The majority of DMSO molecules solvating Na + in concentrated solutions reduces the available free DMSO molecules that can react with Na and renders the TFSI anion decomposition, which protects Na from reacting with the electrolyte. Using these concentrated electrolytes, Na-O 2 batteries can be cycled forming sodium superoxide (NaO 2) as the sole discharge product with improved long cycle life, highlighting the beneficial role of concentrated electrolytes for Na-based batteries.« less

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones and relationship with NAO and jet intensity based on the IMILAST cyclone database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, Sven; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Economou, Theodoros; Stephenson, David B.; Karremann, Melanie K.; Shaffrey, Len C.

2017-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area, particularly during wintertime. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, such series (clusters) of storms may cause large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. Based on winter (DJF) cyclone counts from the IMILAST cyclone database, we explore the representation of serial clustering in the ERA-Interim period and its relationship with the NAO-phase and jet intensity. With this aim, clustering is estimated by the dispersion of winter (DJF) cyclone passages for each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods, although the exact location and the dispersion magnitude may vary. The relationship between clustering and (i) the NAO-phase and (ii) jet intensity over the North Atlantic is statistically evaluated. Results show that the NAO-index and the jet intensity show a strong contribution to clustering, even though some spread is found between methods. We conclude that the general features of clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Western Europe are robust to the choice of tracking method. The same is true for the influence of the NAO and jet intensity on cyclone dispersion.

Delay-induced patterns in a two-dimensional lattice of coupled oscillators

PubMed Central

Kantner, Markus; Schöll, Eckehard; Yanchuk, Serhiy

2015-01-01

We show how a variety of stable spatio-temporal periodic patterns can be created in 2D-lattices of coupled oscillators with non-homogeneous coupling delays. The results are illustrated using the FitzHugh-Nagumo coupled neurons as well as coupled limit cycle (Stuart-Landau) oscillators. A “hybrid dispersion relation” is introduced, which describes the stability of the patterns in spatially extended systems with large time-delay. PMID:25687789

Oocyte cryopreservation and in vitro culture affect calcium signalling during human fertilization.

PubMed

Nikiforaki, D; Vanden Meerschaut, F; Qian, C; De Croo, I; Lu, Y; Deroo, T; Van den Abbeel, E; Heindryckx, B; De Sutter, P

2014-01-01

What are the precise patterns of calcium oscillations during the fertilization of human oocytes matured either in vivo or in vitro or aged in vitro and what is the effect of cryopreservation? Human oocytes matured in vivo exhibit a specific pattern of calcium oscillations, which is affected by in vitro maturation, in vitro ageing and cryopreservation. Oscillations in cytoplasmic calcium concentration are crucial for oocyte activation and further embryonic development. While several studies have described in detail the calcium oscillation pattern during fertilization in animal models, studies with human oocytes are scarce. This was a laboratory-based study using human MII oocytes matured in vivo or in vitro either fresh or after cryopreservation with slow freezing or vitrification. Altogether, 205 human oocytes were included in the analysis. In vivo and in vitro matured human oocytes were used for this research either fresh or following vitrification/warming (V/W) and slow freezing/thawing (F/T). Human oocytes were obtained following written informed consent from patients undergoing ovarian hyperstimulation. For the calcium pattern analysis, oocytes were loaded with the ratiometric calcium indicator fluorescent dye Fura-2. Following ICSI using sperm from a single donor, intracellular calcium was measured for 16 h at 37°C under 6% CO(2). The calcium oscillation parameters were calculated for all intact oocytes that showed calcium oscillations and were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Human in vivo MII oocytes display a specific pattern of calcium oscillations following ICSI. This pattern is significantly affected by in vitro ageing, with the calcium oscillations occurring over a longer period of time and with a lower frequency, shorter duration and higher amplitude (P < 0.05). In vitro matured oocytes from the GV and MI stage exhibit a different pattern of calcium oscillations with calcium transients being of lower frequency and shorter duration compared with in vivo matured MII. In MI oocytes that reached the MII stage within 3 h the calcium oscillations additionally appear over a longer period of time (P < 0.05). In vivo MII oocytes show a different calcium oscillation pattern following V/W with calcium oscillations occurring over a longer period of time, with a higher amplitude and a lower frequency (P < 0.05). In vitro matured oocytes, either from the GV or the MI stage, also display an altered pattern of calcium oscillations after V/W and the parameters that were similarly affected in all these oocyte groups are the frequency and the amplitude of the calcium transients. Slow freezing/thawing differentially affects the calcium oscillation pattern of in vitro matured and in vitro aged oocytes. The relationship between a specific pattern of calcium oscillations and subsequent human embryonic development could not be evaluated since the calcium indicator used and the high-intensity excitation light impair development. Furthermore, all oocytes were derived from stimulated cycles and immature oocytes were denuded prior to in vitro maturation. Our data show for the first time how calcium signalling during human fertilization is affected by oocyte in vitro maturation, in vitro ageing as well as V/W and slow freezing/thawing. The analysis of calcium oscillations could be used as an oocyte quality indicator to evaluate in vitro culture and cryopreservation techniques of human oocytes. This work was supported by a clinical research mandate from the Flemish Foundation of Scientific Research (FWO-Vlaanderen, FWO09/ASP/063) to F.V.M, a fundamental clinical research mandate from the FWO-Vlaanderen (FWO05/FKM/001) to P.D.S and a Ghent University grant (KAN-BOF E/01321/01) to B.H. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Emergence and transitions of dynamic patterns of thickness oscillation of the plasmodium of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Seiji; Ueda, Tetsuo

2008-03-01

The emergence and transitions of various spatiotemporal patterns of thickness oscillation were studied in the freshly isolated protoplasm of the Physarum plasmodium. New patterns, such as standing waves, and chaotic and rotating spirals, developed successively before the well-documented synchronous pattern appeared. There was also a spontaneous opposite transition from synchrony to chaotic and rotating spirals. Rotating spiral waves were observed in the large migrating plasmodium, where the vein structures were being destroyed. Thus, the Physarum plasmodium exhibits versatile patterns, which are generally expected in coupled oscillator systems. This paper discusses the physiological roles of spatiotemporal patterns, comparing them with other biological systems.

Dynamical Mechanisms and Variability of Dry and Wet Spells in Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Montero, Irene; Gouveia, Célia

2014-05-01

Dry and wet spells in Iberia have widespread ecological and environmental negative impacts resulting in major socioeconomic damages such as crop yield losses or increasing forest fire risk [Gouveia et al. 2009; Amraoui et al. 2013] and flash flooding, urban inundations, landslides and associated human and infrastructure damages [Liberato et al. 2013]. The 20th century was characterized by a negative trend on precipitation and a positive trend on temperature in southern Europe. On the other hand recent results suggest that there are opposite tendencies in the duration of wet and dry spells over the Iberia. At the monthly and seasonal scales, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian (SCAN) patterns are important large-scale variability modes that control the Iberian precipitation regime. The NAO modulates the westerly atmospheric flow by shifting the polar jet and the associated storm-tracks. At the sub-monthly scale, extratropical cyclones have a significant impact on Iberian climate and are one of the primary causes of extreme events occurrence over the region [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this work we investigate the connection between midlatitude cyclones and the onset and recurrent character of droughts, heavy precipitation and spell duration in Iberia. Our results confirm the links between unusual circulation patterns with these extreme events. Moreover we show how the frequency on the occurrence of extratropical cyclones on the Euro-Atlantic region is critical in explaining the tails of the precipitation distribution in Iberia. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAG-GLO/4155/2012). References: Amraoui M., M. L. R. Liberato, T. J. Calado, C. C. DaCamara, L. P. Coelho, R. M. Trigo, C. M. Gouveia (2013) Fire activity over Mediterranean Europe based on information from Meteosat-8. Forest Ecology and Management, 294: 62-75, doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2012.08.032 Gouveia, C., , R. M. Trigo, , C. C. DaCamara (2009) Drought and Vegetation Stress Monitoring in Portugal using Satellite Data, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9: 185-195 doi:10.5194/nhess-9-185-2009 Liberato M. L. R., J. G. Pinto, I. F. Trigo, R. M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66: 330-334 doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato, M. L. R., A. M. Ramos, R. M. Trigo, I. F. Trigo, A. M. Durán-Quesada, R. Nieto, L. Gimeno (2013) Moisture Sources and Large-Scale Dynamics Associated With a Flash Flood Event, in Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere (eds J. Lin, D. Brunner, C. Gerbig, A. Stohl, A. Luhar and P. Webley), Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 200: 111-126, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C. doi: 10.1029/2012GM001244

New Insights into the Instability of Discharge Products in Na-O2 Batteries.

PubMed

Landa-Medrano, Imanol; Pinedo, Ricardo; Bi, Xuanxuan; Ruiz de Larramendi, Idoia; Lezama, Luis; Janek, Jürgen; Amine, Khalil; Lu, Jun; Rojo, Teófilo

2016-08-10

Sodium-oxygen batteries currently stimulate extensive research due to their high theoretical energy density and improved operational stability when compared to lithium-oxygen batteries. Cell stability, however, needs to be demonstrated also under resting conditions before future implementation of these batteries. In this work we analyze the effect of resting periods on the stability of the sodium superoxide (NaO2) discharge product. The instability of NaO2 in the cell environment is demonstrated leading to the evolution of oxygen during the resting period and the decrease of the cell efficiency. In addition, migration of the superoxide anion (O2(-)) in the electrolyte is observed and demonstrated to be an important factor affecting Coulombic efficiency.

Pattern recognition with "materials that compute".

PubMed

Fang, Yan; Yashin, Victor V; Levitan, Steven P; Balazs, Anna C

2016-09-01

Driven by advances in materials and computer science, researchers are attempting to design systems where the computer and material are one and the same entity. Using theoretical and computational modeling, we design a hybrid material system that can autonomously transduce chemical, mechanical, and electrical energy to perform a computational task in a self-organized manner, without the need for external electrical power sources. Each unit in this system integrates a self-oscillating gel, which undergoes the Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction, with an overlaying piezoelectric (PZ) cantilever. The chemomechanical oscillations of the BZ gels deflect the PZ layer, which consequently generates a voltage across the material. When these BZ-PZ units are connected in series by electrical wires, the oscillations of these units become synchronized across the network, where the mode of synchronization depends on the polarity of the PZ. We show that the network of coupled, synchronizing BZ-PZ oscillators can perform pattern recognition. The "stored" patterns are set of polarities of the individual BZ-PZ units, and the "input" patterns are coded through the initial phase of the oscillations imposed on these units. The results of the modeling show that the input pattern closest to the stored pattern exhibits the fastest convergence time to stable synchronization behavior. In this way, networks of coupled BZ-PZ oscillators achieve pattern recognition. Further, we show that the convergence time to stable synchronization provides a robust measure of the degree of match between the input and stored patterns. Through these studies, we establish experimentally realizable design rules for creating "materials that compute."

Pattern recognition with “materials that compute”

PubMed Central

Fang, Yan; Yashin, Victor V.; Levitan, Steven P.; Balazs, Anna C.

2016-01-01

Driven by advances in materials and computer science, researchers are attempting to design systems where the computer and material are one and the same entity. Using theoretical and computational modeling, we design a hybrid material system that can autonomously transduce chemical, mechanical, and electrical energy to perform a computational task in a self-organized manner, without the need for external electrical power sources. Each unit in this system integrates a self-oscillating gel, which undergoes the Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction, with an overlaying piezoelectric (PZ) cantilever. The chemomechanical oscillations of the BZ gels deflect the PZ layer, which consequently generates a voltage across the material. When these BZ-PZ units are connected in series by electrical wires, the oscillations of these units become synchronized across the network, where the mode of synchronization depends on the polarity of the PZ. We show that the network of coupled, synchronizing BZ-PZ oscillators can perform pattern recognition. The “stored” patterns are set of polarities of the individual BZ-PZ units, and the “input” patterns are coded through the initial phase of the oscillations imposed on these units. The results of the modeling show that the input pattern closest to the stored pattern exhibits the fastest convergence time to stable synchronization behavior. In this way, networks of coupled BZ-PZ oscillators achieve pattern recognition. Further, we show that the convergence time to stable synchronization provides a robust measure of the degree of match between the input and stored patterns. Through these studies, we establish experimentally realizable design rules for creating “materials that compute.” PMID:27617290

Synchronization and spatiotemporal patterns in coupled phase oscillators on a weighted planar network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kagawa, Yuki; Takamatsu, Atsuko

2009-04-01

To reveal the relation between network structures found in two-dimensional biological systems, such as protoplasmic tube networks in the plasmodium of true slime mold, and spatiotemporal oscillation patterns emerged on the networks, we constructed coupled phase oscillators on weighted planar networks and investigated their dynamics. Results showed that the distribution of edge weights in the networks strongly affects (i) the propensity for global synchronization and (ii) emerging ratios of oscillation patterns, such as traveling and concentric waves, even if the total weight is fixed. In-phase locking, traveling wave, and concentric wave patterns were, respectively, observed most frequently in uniformly weighted, center weighted treelike, and periphery weighted ring-shaped networks. Controlling the global spatiotemporal patterns with the weight distribution given by the local weighting (coupling) rules might be useful in biological network systems including the plasmodial networks and neural networks in the brain.

Nonlinear effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a fluctuating population of reindeer.

PubMed

Tyler, Nicholas J C; Forchhammer, Mads C; Øritsland, Nils Are

2008-06-01

Nonlinear and irregular population dynamics may arise as a result of phase dependence and coexistence of multiple attractors. Here we explore effects of climate and density in the dynamics of a highly fluctuating population of wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) on Svalbard observed over a period of 29 years. Time series analyses revealed that density dependence and the effects of local climate (measured as the degree of ablation [melting] of snow during winter) on numbers were both highly nonlinear: direct negative density dependence was found when the population was growing (Rt > 0) and during phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) characterized by winters with generally high (1979-1995) and low (1996-2007) indices, respectively. A growth-phase-dependent model explained the dynamics of the population best and revealed the influence of density-independent processes on numbers that a linear autoregressive model missed altogether. In particular, the abundance of reindeer was enhanced by ablation during phases of growth (Rt > 0), an observation that contrasts with the view that periods of mild weather in winter are normally deleterious for reindeer owing to icing of the snowpack. Analyses of vital rates corroborated the nonlinearity described in the population time series and showed that both starvation mortality in winter and fecundity were nonlinearly related to fluctuations in density and the level of ablation. The erratic pattern of growth of the population of reindeer in Adventdalen seems, therefore, to result from a combination of the effects of nonlinear density dependence, strong density-dependent mortality, and variable density independence related to ablation in winter.

Identifying robust regional precipitation responses to regional aerosol emissions perturbations in three coupled chemistry-climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Previdi, M. J.; Conley, A. J.; Shindell, D. T.; Mascioli, N. R.; Correa, G. J. P.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.

2017-12-01

Regional emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors will likely decrease for the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. Although there is some evidence that regional climate effects of aerosols can be significant, we currently lack a robust understanding of the magnitude, spatio-temporal pattern, statistical significance, and physical processes responsible for these influences, especially for precipitation. Here, we aim to quantify systematically the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosols and investigate underlying mechanisms using three fully coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). The central approach we use is to contrast a long control experiment (400 years, run with perpetual year 2000 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation experiments ( 200 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and carbonaceous aerosol (BC and OM) within several world regions and assess which responses are significant relative to internal variability determined by the control run and robust across the three models. Initial results show significant changes in precipitation in several vulnerable regions including the Western Sahel and the Indian subcontinent. SO2 emissions reductions from Europe and the United States have the largest impact on precipitation among most of the selected response regions. The precipitation response to emissions changes from these regions projects onto known modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Across all perturbation experiments, we find a strong linear relationship between the responses of Sahel precipitation and the interhemispheric temperature difference, suggesting a common mechanism of an anomalous Hadley cell circulation and a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). GFDL-CM3 and CESM1 each show strong changes in regional precipitation in response to the various regional aerosol emissions perturbations, whereas a more modest response occurs in GISS-E2, owing to a weaker aerosol indirect effect.

Skill and reliability of experimental GEFS ensemble forecast guidance designed to inform decision-making in reservoir management in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Previdi, M. J.; Conley, A. J.; Shindell, D. T.; Mascioli, N. R.; Correa, G. J. P.; Faluvegi, G.; Horowitz, L. W.

2016-12-01

Regional emissions of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors will likely decrease for the remainder of the 21st century, due to emission reduction policies enacted to protect human health. Although there is some evidence that regional climate effects of aerosols can be significant, we currently lack a robust understanding of the magnitude, spatio-temporal pattern, statistical significance, and physical processes responsible for these influences, especially for precipitation. Here, we aim to quantify systematically the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosols and investigate underlying mechanisms using three fully coupled chemistry-climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). The central approach we use is to contrast a long control experiment (400 years, run with perpetual year 2000 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation experiments ( 200 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and carbonaceous aerosol (BC and OM) within several world regions and assess which responses are significant relative to internal variability determined by the control run and robust across the three models. Initial results show significant changes in precipitation in several vulnerable regions including the Western Sahel and the Indian subcontinent. SO2 emissions reductions from Europe and the United States have the largest impact on precipitation among most of the selected response regions. The precipitation response to emissions changes from these regions projects onto known modes of variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Across all perturbation experiments, we find a strong linear relationship between the responses of Sahel precipitation and the interhemispheric temperature difference, suggesting a common mechanism of an anomalous Hadley cell circulation and a shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). GFDL-CM3 and CESM1 each show strong changes in regional precipitation in response to the various regional aerosol emissions perturbations, whereas a more modest response occurs in GISS-E2, owing to a weaker aerosol indirect effect.

The impact of moisture sources on the oxygen isotope composition of precipitation at a continental site in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krklec, Kristina; Domínguez-Villar, David; Lojen, Sonja

2018-06-01

The stable isotope composition of precipitation records processes taking place within the hydrological cycle. Potentially, moisture sources are important controls on the stable isotope composition of precipitation, but studies focused on this topic are still scarce. We studied the moisture sources contributing to precipitation at Postojna (Slovenia) from 2009 to 2013. Back trajectory analyses were computed for the days with precipitation at Postojna. The moisture uptake locations were identified along these trajectories using standard hydrometeorological formulation. The moisture uptake locations were integrated in eight source regions to facilitate its comparison to the monthly oxygen isotope composition (δ18O values) of precipitation. Nearly half of the precipitation originated from continental sources (recycled moisture), and >40% was from central and western Mediterranean. Results show that moisture sources do not have a significant impact on the oxygen isotope composition at this site. We suggest that the large proportion of recycled moisture originated from transpiration rather than evaporation, which produced water vapour with less negative δ18O values. Thus the difference between the oceanic and local vapour source was reduced, which prevented the distinction of the moisture sources based on their oxygen isotope signature. Nevertheless, δ18O values of precipitation are partially controlled by climate parameters, which is of major importance for paleoclimate studies. We found that the main climate control on Postojna δ18O values of precipitation is the surface temperature. Amount effect was not recorded at this site, and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does not impact the δ18O values of precipitation. The Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) was correlated to oxygen stable isotope composition, although this atmospheric pattern was not a control. Instead we found that the link to δ18O values results from synoptic scenarios affecting WeMO index as well as temperature. Therefore, interpretation of δ18O values of precipitation in terms of climate is limited to surface temperature, although at least half of the variability observed still depends on unknown controls of the hydrological cycle.

A Global Precipitation Perspective on Persistent Extratropical Flow Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

1999-01-01

Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2 x 79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

Self-Organization of Embryonic Genetic Oscillators into Spatiotemporal Wave Patterns

PubMed Central

Tsiairis, Charisios D.; Aulehla, Alexander

2016-01-01

Summary In vertebrate embryos, somites, the precursor of vertebrae, form from the presomitic mesoderm (PSM), which is composed of cells displaying signaling oscillations. Cellular oscillatory activity leads to periodic wave patterns in the PSM. Here, we address the origin of such complex wave patterns. We employed an in vitro randomization and real-time imaging strategy to probe for the ability of cells to generate order from disorder. We found that, after randomization, PSM cells self-organized into several miniature emergent PSM structures (ePSM). Our results show an ordered macroscopic spatial arrangement of ePSM with evidence of an intrinsic length scale. Furthermore, cells actively synchronize oscillations in a Notch-signaling-dependent manner, re-establishing wave-like patterns of gene activity. We demonstrate that PSM cells self-organize by tuning oscillation dynamics in response to surrounding cells, leading to collective synchronization with an average frequency. These findings reveal emergent properties within an ensemble of coupled genetic oscillators. PMID:26871631

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rousseaux, Cecile; Gregg, Watson

2014-01-01

Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.

Human influence on Canadian temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Hui; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis

2018-02-01

Canada has experienced some of the most rapid warming on Earth over the past few decades with a warming rate about twice that of the global mean temperature since 1948. Long-term warming is observed in Canada's annual, winter and summer mean temperatures, and in the annual coldest and hottest daytime and nighttime temperatures. The causes of these changes are assessed by comparing observed changes with climate model simulated responses to anthropogenic and natural (solar and volcanic) external forcings. Most of the observed warming of 1.7 °C increase in annual mean temperature during 1948-2012 [90% confidence interval (1.1°, 2.2 °C)] can only be explained by external forcing on the climate system, with anthropogenic influence being the dominant factor. It is estimated that anthropogenic forcing has contributed 1.0 °C (0.6°, 1.5 °C) and natural external forcing has contributed 0.2 °C (0.1°, 0.3 °C) to the observed warming. Up to 0.5 °C of the observed warming trend may be associated with low frequency variability of the climate such as that represented by the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Overall, the influence of both anthropogenic and natural external forcing is clearly evident in Canada-wide mean and extreme temperatures, and can also be detected regionally over much of the country.

WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

Multi-year Droughts in California in the Last Two Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.

2016-12-01

Multi-year droughts in California including the notorious 2013-2014 drought became serious problems recently, causing significant socio-economic damages. In the present study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts in California, i.e., 1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2014, during the recent two decades (1995-2014), we compared and investigated their characteristics of the atmosphere and the oceans. By positioning abnormally strong anticyclonic circulations at 500 hPa over the North Pacific, the droughts seem to start around strong La Niña years and continued or intensified until the year prior to an El Niño. While precipitation decreases in La Niña years have been well documented previously, the intensification of droughts in the later period has not. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses suggest that, around strong La Niña years, the first EOF mode (EOF1) of the 500 hPa height is active, while the second EOF mode (EOF2) becomes active in moderate/weak La Nina years. It is also found that while EOF1 is sensitive to SST variability in the central Pacific which is associated with the major ENSO events, EOF2 is sensitive to that in the western/South Pacific. Relations to various climate variability other than ENSO, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH), Pacific/North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are also examined.

Spatiotemporal Divergence of the Warming Hiatus over Land Based on Different Definitions of Mean Temperature

PubMed Central

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-01-01

Existing studies of the recent warming hiatus over land are primarily based on the average of daily minimum and maximum temperatures (T2). This study compared regional warming rates of mean temperature based on T2 and T24 calculated from hourly observations available from 1998 to 2013. Both T2 and T24 show that the warming hiatus over land is apparent in the mid-latitudes of North America and Eurasia, especially in cold seasons, which is closely associated with the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) and cold air propagation by the Arctic-original northerly wind anomaly into mid-latitudes. However, the warming rates of T2 and T24 are significantly different at regional and seasonal scales because T2 only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. The trend has a standard deviation of 0.43 °C/decade for T2 and 0.41 °C/decade for T24, and 0.38 °C/decade for their trend difference in 5° × 5° grids. The use of T2 amplifies the regional contrasts of the warming rate, i.e., the trend underestimation in the US and overestimation at high latitudes by T2. PMID:27531421

In Situ Imaging the Oxygen Reduction Reactions of Solid State Na-O2 Batteries with CuO Nanowires as the Air Cathode.

PubMed

Liu, Qiunan; Yang, Tingting; Du, Congcong; Tang, Yongfu; Sun, Yong; Jia, Peng; Chen, Jingzhao; Ye, Hongjun; Shen, Tongde; Peng, Qiuming; Zhang, Liqiang; Huang, Jianyu

2018-06-13

We report real time imaging of the oxygen reduction reactions (ORRs) in all solid state sodium oxygen batteries (SOBs) with CuO nanowires (NWs) as the air cathode in an aberration-corrected environmental transmission electron microscope under an oxygen environment. The ORR occurred in a distinct two-step reaction, namely, a first conversion reaction followed by a second multiple ORR. In the former, CuO was first converted to Cu 2 O and then to Cu; in the latter, NaO 2 formed first, followed by its disproportionation to Na 2 O 2 and O 2 . Concurrent with the two distinct electrochemical reactions, the CuO NWs experienced multiple consecutive large volume expansions. It is evident that the freshly formed ultrafine-grained Cu in the conversion reaction catalyzed the latter one-electron-transfer ORR, leading to the formation of NaO 2 . Remarkably, no carbonate formation was detected in the oxygen cathode after cycling due to the absence of carbon source in the whole battery setup. These results provide fundamental understanding into the oxygen chemistry in the carbonless air cathode in all solid state Na-O 2 batteries.

Concentrated Electrolyte for the Sodium-Oxygen Battery: Solvation Structure and Improved Cycle Life.

PubMed

He, Mingfu; Lau, Kah Chun; Ren, Xiaodi; Xiao, Neng; McCulloch, William D; Curtiss, Larry A; Wu, Yiying

2016-12-05

Alkali metal-oxygen batteries are of great interests for energy storage because of their unparalleled theoretical energy densities. Particularly attractive is the emerging Na-O 2 battery because of the formation of superoxide as the discharge product. Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) is a promising solvent for this battery but its instability towards Na makes it impractical in the Na-O 2 battery. Herein we report the enhanced stability of Na in DMSO solutions containing concentrated sodium trifluoromethanesulfonimide (NaTFSI) salts (>3 mol kg -1 ). Raman spectra of NaTFSI/DMSO electrolytes and ab initio molecular dynamics simulation reveal the Na + solvation number in DMSO and the formation of Na(DMSO) 3 (TFSI)-like solvation structure. The majority of DMSO molecules solvating Na + in concentrated solutions reduces the available free DMSO molecules that can react with Na and renders the TFSI anion decomposition, which protects Na from reacting with the electrolyte. Using these concentrated electrolytes, Na-O 2 batteries can be cycled forming sodium superoxide (NaO 2 ) as the sole discharge product with improved long cycle life, highlighting the beneficial role of concentrated electrolytes for Na-based batteries. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Concentrated Electrolyte for the Sodium-Oxygen Battery: Solvation Structure and Improved Cycle Life

DOE PAGES

He, Mingfu; Lau, Kah Chun; Ren, Xiaodi; ...

2016-11-03

Alkali metal-oxygen batteries are of great interests for energy storage because of their unparalleled theoretical energy densities. Particularly attractive is the emerging Na-O 2 battery because of the formation of superoxide as the discharge product. Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) is a promising solvent for this battery but its instability towards Na makes it impractical in the Na-O 2 battery. Here in this paper, we report the enhanced stability of Na in DMSO solutions containing concentrated sodium trifluoromethanesulfonimide (NaTFSI) salts (>3molkg -1). Raman spectra of NaTFSI/DMSO electrolytes and abinitio molecular dynamics simulation reveal the Na + solvation number in DMSO and themore » formation of Na(DMSO) 3(TFSI)-like solvation structure. The majority of DMSO molecules solvating Na + in concentrated solutions reduces the available free DMSO molecules that can react with Na and renders the TFSI anion decomposition, which protects Na from reacting with the electrolyte. Using these concentrated electrolytes, Na-O 2 batteries can be cycled forming sodium superoxide (NaO 2) as the sole discharge product with improved long cycle life, highlighting the beneficial role of concentrated electrolytes for Na-based batteries.« less

Tracking the Mediterranean Abyss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aracri, S.; Schroeder, K.; Chiggiato, J.; Bryden, H. L.; McDonagh, E.; Josey, S. A.; Hello, Y.; Borghini, M.

2016-02-01

The Mediterranean Sea is well known to be a miniature ocean with small enough timescales to allow the observation of main oceanographic events, e.g. deep water formation and overturning circulation, in a human life time. This renders the Mediterranean Sea the perfect observatory to study and forecast the behaviour of the world ocean. Considering the coherence between NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and Mediterranean oscillation and bearing in mind that the Mediterranean outflow at Gibraltar constitutes a constant source of intermediate, warm and saline water, it has been suggested that "the system composed of the North Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea/Gibraltar Strait and the Arctic Sea/Fram Strait might work as a unique oceanographic entity, with the physical processes within the straits determining the exchange of the fresh and salty waters between the marginal seas and the open ocean".In the light of the present knowledge the Mediterranean might, then, be considered as a key oceanographic observatory site. The deep sea is still challenging to monitor, especially given the latest years lack of fundings and ships availability. Therefore optimizing the existing methods and instrumentation has become a priority. This work is focused on the North-Western Mediterranean basin, where deep water formation events often occur in the Gulf of Lion as well as deep convection in the neighbour Ligurian Sea. A different application of submarine robots - Mermaids- designed to observe underwater seismic waves aiming to improve ocean tomography is presented. In order to improve our knowledge of the North-Western Mediterranean abyssal circulation we track Mermaids extracting their velocity, correcting it and comparing it with the historically estimated values and with the geostrophic velocity extracted from a 40 years long hydrographic datasets.

Differential response of continental stock complexes of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedland, Kevin D.; Shank, Burton V.; Todd, Christopher D.; McGinnity, Philip; Nye, Janet A.

2014-05-01

Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, in the North Atlantic are managed as a set of population complexes distributed in North America and Europe. In recent years, these complexes have experienced reduced marine survival and many populations within the complexes are at risk, especially those at the southern ends of the species amphi-Atlantic range. Atlantic salmon is an anadromous fish dividing its life history between residence in freshwater and the marine environment. The freshwater portion of the life history includes spawning and the rearing of juveniles where in-river production has tended to be relatively stable, whereas the first year at sea, termed the post-smolt year, is characterized by more variable rates of mortality. Although their habitats are widely separated geographically along the North Atlantic seaboards, strong recruitment coherence exists between North American and European stock complexes. This recruitment coherence is correlated with ocean temperature variation associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) appears to be relatively unimportant as a driver of salmon abundance. The mechanism determining the link between AMO-related thermal variation and abundance appears to differ fundamentally for the two continental stock groupings. Whereas ocean climate variability during the first springtime months of juvenile salmon migration to sea appears to be important to the survival of North American stocks, summer climate variation appears to be central to adult recruitment variation for European stocks. This contrast in seasonal effects appears to be related to the varying roles of predation pressure and size-related mortality on the continental stock complexes. The anticipated warming due to global climate change will impose thermal conditions on salmon populations outside historical context and challenge the ability of many populations to persist.

Global competition and local cooperation in a network of neural oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terman, David; Wang, DeLiang

An architecture of locally excitatory, globally inhibitory oscillator networks is proposed and investigated both analytically and by computer simulation. The model for each oscillator corresponds to a standard relaxation oscillator with two time scales. Oscillators are locally coupled by a scheme that resembles excitatory synaptic coupling, and each oscillator also inhibits other oscillators through a common inhibitor. Oscillators are driven to be oscillatory by external stimulation. The network exhibits a mechanism of selective gating, whereby an oscillator jumping up to its active phase rapidly recruits the oscillators stimulated by the same pattern, while preventing the other oscillators from jumping up. We show analytically that with the selective gating mechanism, the network rapidly achieves both synchronization within blocks of oscillators that are stimulated by connected regions and desynchronization between different blocks. Computer simulations demonstrate the model's promising ability for segmenting multiple input patterns in real time. This model lays a physical foundation for the oscillatory correlation theory of feature binding and may provide an effective computational framework for scene segmentation and figure/ ground segregation.

Activity patterns in networks stabilized by background oscillations.

PubMed

Hoppensteadt, Frank

2009-07-01

The brain operates in a highly oscillatory environment. We investigate here how such an oscillating background can create stable organized behavior in an array of neuro-oscillators that is not observable in the absence of oscillation, much like oscillating the support point of an inverted pendulum can stabilize its up position, which is unstable without the oscillation. We test this idea in an array of electronic circuits coming from neuroengineering: we show how the frequencies of the background oscillation create a partition of the state space into distinct basins of attraction. Thus, background signals can stabilize persistent activity that is otherwise not observable. This suggests that an image, represented as a stable firing pattern which is triggered by a voltage pulse and is sustained in synchrony or resonance with the background oscillation, can persist as a stable behavior long after the initial stimulus is removed. The background oscillations provide energy for organized behavior in the array, and these behaviors are categorized by the basins of attraction determined by the oscillation frequencies.

Red ball ranging optimization based on dual camera ranging method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuang, Lei; Sun, Weijia; Liu, Jiaming; Tang, Matthew Wai-Chung

2018-05-01

In this paper, the process of positioning and moving to target red ball by NAO robot through its camera system is analyzed and improved using the dual camera ranging method. The single camera ranging method, which is adapted by NAO robot, was first studied and experimented. Since the existing error of current NAO Robot is not a single variable, the experiments were divided into two parts to obtain more accurate single camera ranging experiment data: forward ranging and backward ranging. Moreover, two USB cameras were used in our experiments that adapted Hough's circular method to identify a ball, while the HSV color space model was used to identify red color. Our results showed that the dual camera ranging method reduced the variance of error in ball tracking from 0.68 to 0.20.

Oscillations In Emerging Active Regions on the Sun

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. A.; Muglach, K.

2017-12-01

Active regions (ARs) on the Sun are directly related to space weather phenomena like flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is well known that both can have impacts not only on Earth, but also on nearby orbits and beyond. Predicting when and where active regions will emerge at the surface of the Sun would strengthen space weather forecasting abilities. In this study, data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) are used to produce images of the magnetic field and Doppler Velocity at the photosphere of the Sun. This data is used to study the emergence of ARs at the surface of the Sun. Since global oscillations that travel through the solar interior are modified by the magnetic field, the oscillation patterns in and around ARs should be different from the oscillation patterns in the quiet, non-active Sun. Thus, a change in oscillation patterns can be determined before an AR is visible at the Sun's surface. Using Fast Fourier Transforms, the oscillation patterns can be calculated from the SDO Dopplergrams. Magnetograms provide the time when the magnetic field of the active region reaches the solar surface. Thus, both the calculated oscillation frequencies and power can be compared to the information of an AR's emergence in the magnetograms. In particular, it can be determined if there is any time delay between the change of oscillation power and magnetic field emergence. For this particular AR studied, it was found that the 5-min oscillation power starts to decrease at the time the AR emerges. The 3-min oscillation power also decreases first but increases again a few hours after the start of the emergence. This observation is probably due to 3-min oscillation power halos around the AR and has been observed before. A few hours before the AR starts to emerge, an increase was found in both 5-min and 3-min oscillation power. This effect is promising, however, it has not been observed before and has to be verified with additional observations.

Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.

Locally excitatory, globally inhibitory oscillator networks: theory and application to scene segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, DeLiang; Terman, David

1995-01-01

A novel class of locally excitatory, globally inhibitory oscillator networks (LEGION) is proposed and investigated analytically and by computer simulation. The model of each oscillator corresponds to a standard relaxation oscillator with two time scales. The network exhibits a mechanism of selective gating, whereby an oscillator jumping up to its active phase rapidly recruits the oscillators stimulated by the same pattern, while preventing other oscillators from jumping up. We show analytically that with the selective gating mechanism the network rapidly achieves both synchronization within blocks of oscillators that are stimulated by connected regions and desynchronization between different blocks. Computer simulations demonstrate LEGION's promising ability for segmenting multiple input patterns in real time. This model lays a physical foundation for the oscillatory correlation theory of feature binding, and may provide an effective computational framework for scene segmentation and figure/ground segregation.

Virtual Surgery for the Nasal Airway: A Preliminary Report on Decision Support and Technology Acceptance.

PubMed

Vanhille, Derek L; Garcia, Guilherme J M; Asan, Onur; Borojeni, Azadeh A T; Frank-Ito, Dennis O; Kimbell, Julia S; Pawar, Sachin S; Rhee, John S

2018-01-01

Nasal airway obstruction (NAO) is a common problem that affects patient quality of life. Surgical success for NAO correction is variable. Virtual surgery planning via computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has the potential to improve the success rates of NAO surgery. To elicit surgeon feedback of a virtual surgery planning tool for NAO and to determine if this tool affects surgeon decision making. For this cross-sectional study, 60-minute face-to-face interviews with board-certified otolaryngologists were conducted at a single academic otolaryngology department from September 16, 2016, through October 7, 2016. Virtual surgery methods were introduced, and surgeons were able to interact with the virtual surgery planning tool interface. Surgeons were provided with a patient case of NAO, and open feedback of the platform was obtained, with emphasis on surgical decision making. Likert scale responses and qualitative feedback were collected for the virtual surgery planning tool and its influence on surgeon decision making. Our 9 study participants were all male, board-certified otolaryngologists with a mean (range) 15 (4-28) number of years in practice and a mean (range) number of nasal surgeries per month at 2.2 (0.0-6.0). When examined on a scale of 1 (not at all) to 5 (completely), surgeon mean (SD) score was 3.4 (0.5) for how realistic the virtual models were compared with actual surgery. On the same scale, when asked how much the virtual surgery planning tool changed surgeon decision making, mean (SD) score was 2.6 (1.6). On a scale of 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree), surgeon scores for perceived usefulness of the technology and attitude toward using it were 5.1 (1.1) and 5.7 (0.9), respectively. Our study shows positive surgeon experience with a virtual surgery planning tool for NAO based on CFD simulations. Surgeons felt that future applications and areas of study of the virtual surgery planning tool include its potential role for patient counseling, selecting appropriate surgical candidates, and identifying which anatomical structures should be targeted for surgical correction. NA.

In vivo mouse inferior olive neurons exhibit heterogeneous subthreshold oscillations and spiking patterns

PubMed Central

Khosrovani, S.; Van Der Giessen, R. S.; De Zeeuw, C. I.; De Jeu, M. T. G.

2007-01-01

In vitro whole-cell recordings of the inferior olive have demonstrated that its neurons are electrotonically coupled and have a tendency to oscillate. However, it remains to be shown to what extent subthreshold oscillations do indeed occur in the inferior olive in vivo and whether its spatiotemporal firing pattern may be dynamically generated by including or excluding different types of oscillatory neurons. Here, we did whole-cell recordings of olivary neurons in vivo to investigate the relation between their subthreshold activities and their spiking behavior in an intact brain. The vast majority of neurons (85%) showed subthreshold oscillatory activities. The frequencies of these subthreshold oscillations were used to distinguish four main olivary subtypes by statistical means. Type I showed both sinusoidal subthreshold oscillations (SSTOs) and low-threshold Ca2+ oscillations (LTOs) (16%); type II showed only sinusoidal subthreshold oscillations (13%); type III showed only low-threshold Ca2+ oscillations (56%); and type IV did not reveal any subthreshold oscillations (15%). These subthreshold oscillation frequencies were strongly correlated with the frequencies of preferred spiking. The frequency characteristics of the subthreshold oscillations and spiking behavior of virtually all olivary neurons were stable throughout the recordings. However, the occurrence of spontaneous or evoked action potentials modified the subthreshold oscillation by resetting the phase of its peak toward 90°. Together, these findings indicate that the inferior olive in intact mammals offers a rich repertoire of different neurons with relatively stable frequency settings, which can be used to generate and reset temporal firing patterns in a dynamically coupled ensemble. PMID:17895389

Multimode and multistate ladder oscillator and frequency recognition device

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Herbert M. (Inventor)

1976-01-01

A ladder oscillator composed of capacitive and inductive impedances connected together to form a ladder network which has a chosen number N oscillation modes at N different frequencies. Each oscillation mode is characterized by a unique standing wave voltage pattern along the nodes of the ladder oscillator, with the mode in which the ladder oscillator is oscillating being determinable from the amplitudes or phase of the oscillations at the nodes. A logic circuit may be connected to the nodes of the oscillator to compare the phases of selected nodes and thereby determine which mode the oscillator is oscillating in. A ladder oscillator composed of passive capacitive and inductive impedances can be utilized as a frequency recognition device, since the passive ladder oscillator will display the characteristic standing wave patterns if an input signal impressed upon the ladder oscillator is close to one of the mode frequencies of the oscillator. A CL ladder oscillator having series capacitive impedances and shunt inductive impedances can exhibit sustained and autonomous oscillations if active nonlinear devices are connected in parallel with the shunt inductive impedances. The active CL ladder oscillator can be synchronized to input frequencies impressed upon the oscillator, and will continue to oscillate after the input signal has been removed at a mode frequency which is, in general, nearest to the input signal frequency. Autonomous oscillations may also be obtained as desired from the active CL ladder oscillator at the mode frequencies.

Late Holocene climate and environmental change from Asiul cave speleothems: interpretations in light of modern cave monitoring.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Andrew; Wynn, Peter; Barker, Philip; Leng, Melanie; Noble, Steve; Tych, Wlodek

2017-04-01

Northern Iberia offers an excellent location to study fluctuations in North Atlantic Ocean (NA) conditions and the impact that changes in the NA have on atmospheric systems, which dominate Europe's climate. Two speleothems from Cueva de Asiul (Matienzo, N. Spain) have been used to reconstruct rainfall variability in N. Spain throughout the Holocene (Smith et al., 2016a). The carbonate δ18O records from these speleothems are interpreted in the light of a rigorous modern cave monitoring program undertaken at Cueva de Asiul (Smith et al., 2016b). Drip water δ18O reflects a modern rainfall amount effect whilst δ13C appears influenced by Prior Calcite Precipitation (PCP) in the short term and changes in vegetation at long timescales. The speleothem δ18O shows that long duration ( 1500 year) cycles in wetting and drying are prevalent in N. Spain during the Holocene and that dry climate phases are related to the timing of cold events (Bond et al., 2001) in the NA. Here we look in more detail at one of these speleothems, assessing both δ18O and δ13C during the last two thousand years. We show that Cueva de Asiul speleothems not only preserve long duration climate cycles in δ18O, but that they also appear influenced by shorter duration changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), in-sync with other NAO archives (Olsen et al., 2012). However, the Cueva de Asiul record does not appear to preserve a predominately positive NAO signal during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) as is common within many European archives (Trouet et al., 2009), possibly due to the sites' close proximity to the NA and localised oceanic weather systems (Moreno et al., 2012). Alongside climatic changes, the speleothem δ13C shows a clear transition toward higher isotope values around 360 years BP (BP=1950), signalling a major environmental change in the region possibly due to anthropogenic removal of vast swathes of natural forest to support ship building and industry related to the Spanish Armada. Bond et al., (2001), Science 294, 2130-2136. Moreno et al., (2012), Quat. Sci. Rev. 43, 16-32. Olsen et al., (2012), Nat. Geosci. 5, 1-14. Smith et al., (2016a), Sci. Reports.6:24745. Smith et al., (2016b) Int. J. Speleol. 45, 1-9. Trouet et al., (2009), Science 324, 78-80.

Effect of Alkali Metal Cations on Slow Inactivation of Cardiac Na+ Channels

PubMed Central

Townsend, Claire; Horn, Richard

1997-01-01

Human heart Na+ channels were expressed transiently in both mammalian cells and Xenopus oocytes, and Na+ currents measured using 150 mM intracellular Na+. The kinetics of decaying outward Na+ current in response to 1-s depolarizations in the F1485Q mutant depends on the predominant cation in the extracellular solution, suggesting an effect on slow inactivation. The decay rate is lower for the alkali metal cations Li+, Na+, K+, Rb+, and Cs+ than for the organic cations Tris, tetramethylammonium, N-methylglucamine, and choline. In whole cell recordings, raising [Na+]o from 10 to 150 mM increases the rate of recovery from slow inactivation at −140 mV, decreases the rate of slow inactivation at relatively depolarized voltages, and shifts steady-state slow inactivation in a depolarized direction. Single channel recordings of F1485Q show a decrease in the number of blank (i.e., null) records when [Na+]o is increased. Significant clustering of blank records when depolarizing at a frequency of 0.5 Hz suggests that periods of inactivity represent the sojourn of a channel in a slow-inactivated state. Examination of the single channel kinetics at +60 mV during 90-ms depolarizations shows that neither open time, closed time, nor first latency is significantly affected by [Na+]o. However raising [Na+]o decreases the duration of the last closed interval terminated by the end of the depolarization, leading to an increased number of openings at the depolarized voltage. Analysis of single channel data indicates that at a depolarized voltage a single rate constant for entry into a slow-inactivated state is reduced in high [Na+]o, suggesting that the binding of an alkali metal cation, perhaps in the ion-conducting pore, inhibits the closing of the slow inactivation gate. PMID:9234168

Direct Evidence of Solution-Mediated Superoxide Transport and Organic Radical Formation in Sodium-Oxygen Batteries.

PubMed

Xia, Chun; Fernandes, Russel; Cho, Franklin H; Sudhakar, Niranjan; Buonacorsi, Brandon; Walker, Sean; Xu, Meng; Baugh, Jonathan; Nazar, Linda F

2016-09-07

Advanced large-scale electrochemical energy storage requires cost-effective battery systems with high energy densities. Aprotic sodium-oxygen (Na-O2) batteries offer advantages, being comprised of low-cost elements and possessing much lower charge overpotential and higher reversibility compared to their lithium-oxygen battery cousins. Although such differences have been explained by solution-mediated superoxide transport, the underlying nature of this mechanism is not fully understood. Water has been suggested to solubilize superoxide via formation of hydroperoxyl (HO2), but direct evidence of these HO2 radical species in cells has proven elusive. Here, we use ESR spectroscopy at 210 K to identify and quantify soluble HO2 radicals in the electrolyte-cold-trapped in situ to prolong their lifetime-in a Na-O2 cell. These investigations are coupled to parallel SEM studies that image crystalline sodium superoxide (NaO2) on the carbon cathode. The superoxide radicals were spin-trapped via reaction with 5,5-dimethyl-pyrroline N-oxide at different electrochemical stages, allowing monitoring of their production and consumption during cycling. Our results conclusively demonstrate that transport of superoxide from cathode to electrolyte leads to the nucleation and growth of NaO2, which follows classical mechanisms based on the variation of superoxide content in the electrolyte and its correlation with the crystallization of cubic NaO2. The changes in superoxide content upon charge show that charge proceeds through the reverse solution process. Furthermore, we identify the carbon-centered/oxygen-centered alkyl radicals arising from attack of these solubilized HO2 species on the diglyme solvent. This is the first direct evidence of such species, which are likely responsible for electrolyte degradation.

Creation of an idealized nasopharynx geometry for accurate computational fluid dynamics simulations of nasal airflow in patient-specific models lacking the nasopharynx anatomy

PubMed Central

Borojeni, Azadeh A.T.; Frank-Ito, Dennis O.; Kimbell, Julia S.; Rhee, John S.; Garcia, Guilherme J. M.

2016-01-01

Virtual surgery planning based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations has the potential to improve surgical outcomes for nasal airway obstruction (NAO) patients, but the benefits of virtual surgery planning must outweigh the risks of radiation exposure. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans represent an attractive imaging modality for virtual surgery planning due to lower costs and lower radiation exposures compared with conventional CT scans. However, to minimize the radiation exposure, the CBCT sinusitis protocol sometimes images only the nasal cavity, excluding the nasopharynx. The goal of this study was to develop an idealized nasopharynx geometry for accurate representation of outlet boundary conditions when the nasopharynx geometry is unavailable. Anatomically-accurate models of the nasopharynx created from thirty CT scans were intersected with planes rotated at different angles to obtain an average geometry. Cross sections of the idealized nasopharynx were approximated as ellipses with cross-sectional areas and aspect ratios equal to the average in the actual patient-specific models. CFD simulations were performed to investigate whether nasal airflow patterns were affected when the CT-based nasopharynx was replaced by the idealized nasopharynx in 10 NAO patients. Despite the simple form of the idealized geometry, all biophysical variables (nasal resistance, airflow rate, and heat fluxes) were very similar in the idealized vs. patient-specific models. The results confirmed the expectation that the nasopharynx geometry has a minimal effect in the nasal airflow patterns during inspiration. The idealized nasopharynx geometry will be useful in future CFD studies of nasal airflow based on medical images that exclude the nasopharynx. PMID:27525807

EFFECT OF A SAUSAGE OSCILLATION ON RADIO ZEBRA-PATTERN STRUCTURES IN A SOLAR FLARE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Sijie; Yan, Yihua; Nakariakov, V. M., E-mail: sjyu@nao.cas.cn

2016-07-20

Sausage modes that are axisymmetric fast magnetoacoustic oscillations of solar coronal loops are characterized by variation of the plasma density and magnetic field, and hence cause time variations of the electron plasma frequency and cyclotron frequency. The latter parameters determine the condition for the double plasma resonance (DPR), which is responsible for the appearance of zebra-pattern (ZP) structures in time spectra of solar type IV radio bursts. We perform numerical simulations of standing and propagating sausage oscillations in a coronal loop modeled as a straight, field-aligned plasma slab, and determine the time variation of the DPR layer locations. Instant valuesmore » of the plasma density and magnetic field at the DPR layers allowed us to construct skeletons of the time variation of ZP stripes in radio spectra. In the presence of a sausage oscillation, the ZP structures are shown to have characteristic wiggles with the time period prescribed by the sausage oscillation. Standing and propagating sausage oscillations are found to have different signatures in ZP patterns. We conclude that ZP wiggles can be used for the detection of short-period sausage oscillations and the exploitation of their seismological potential.« less

How localized is ``local?'' Efficiency vs. accuracy of O(N) domain decomposition in local orbital based all-electron electronic structure theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havu, Vile; Blum, Volker; Scheffler, Matthias

2007-03-01

Numeric atom-centered local orbitals (NAO) are efficient basis sets for all-electron electronic structure theory. The locality of NAO's can be exploited to render (in principle) all operations of the self-consistency cycle O(N). This is straightforward for 3D integrals using domain decomposition into spatially close subsets of integration points, enabling critical computational savings that are effective from ˜tens of atoms (no significant overhead for smaller systems) and make large systems (100s of atoms) computationally feasible. Using a new all-electron NAO-based code,^1 we investigate the quantitative impact of exploiting this locality on two distinct classes of systems: Large light-element molecules [Alanine-based polypeptide chains (Ala)n], and compact transition metal clusters. Strict NAO locality is achieved by imposing a cutoff potential with an onset radius rc, and exploited by appropriately shaped integration domains (subsets of integration points). Conventional tight rc<= 3å have no measurable accuracy impact in (Ala)n, but introduce inaccuracies of 20-30 meV/atom in Cun. The domain shape impacts the computational effort by only 10-20 % for reasonable rc. ^1 V. Blum, R. Gehrke, P. Havu, V. Havu, M. Scheffler, The FHI Ab Initio Molecular Simulations (aims) Project, Fritz-Haber-Institut, Berlin (2006).

[The Spanish strategy for nutrition, physical activity and the prevention of obesity (NAOS Strategy)].

PubMed

Ballesteros Arribas, Juan Manuel; Dal-Re Saavedra, Marián; Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; Villar Villalba, Carmen

2007-01-01

Obesity, the prevalence of which is still on the rise, is related to the main chronic diseases affecting the health of the population. Therefore, in 2004, the World Health Assembly approved the Global Strategy on Diet, Physical Activity and Health with the aim of reducing the risk factors of nontransmittable diseases related to unhealthy diets and physical inactivity. Along this same line, the Spanish Ministry of Health and Consumer Affairs began implementing the NAOS Strategy in 2005 as a platform from which to include and promote all those initiatives contributing to achieving the necessary social change in the promotion of healthy eating and the prevention of a sedentary lifestyle by meeting certain specific challenges within different scopes of action. The NAOS Strategy extends far beyond the healthcare and educational areas, by combining actions in all those sectors of society playing a role in preventing obesity. Informative campaigns, agreements with public and private institutions, voluntary working agreements, educational programs and supporting health promotion initiatives are some of the activities being carried out as part of the NAOS Strategy. Carrying out these activities and incorporating yet others, in conjunction with the work of evaluating and monitoring all of these activities, will be what is going to make it possible to maintain a high degree of effectiveness in preventing obesity.

Organization of Anti-Phase Synchronization Pattern in Neural Networks: What are the Key Factors?

PubMed Central

Li, Dong; Zhou, Changsong

2011-01-01

Anti-phase oscillation has been widely observed in cortical neural network. Elucidating the mechanism underlying the organization of anti-phase pattern is of significance for better understanding more complicated pattern formations in brain networks. In dynamical systems theory, the organization of anti-phase oscillation pattern has usually been considered to relate to time delay in coupling. This is consistent to conduction delays in real neural networks in the brain due to finite propagation velocity of action potentials. However, other structural factors in cortical neural network, such as modular organization (connection density) and the coupling types (excitatory or inhibitory), could also play an important role. In this work, we investigate the anti-phase oscillation pattern organized on a two-module network of either neuronal cell model or neural mass model, and analyze the impact of the conduction delay times, the connection densities, and coupling types. Our results show that delay times and coupling types can play key roles in this organization. The connection densities may have an influence on the stability if an anti-phase pattern exists due to the other factors. Furthermore, we show that anti-phase synchronization of slow oscillations can be achieved with small delay times if there is interaction between slow and fast oscillations. These results are significant for further understanding more realistic spatiotemporal dynamics of cortico-cortical communications. PMID:22232576

Regulation of NF-κB oscillation by spatial parameters in true intracellular space (TiCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohshima, Daisuke; Sagara, Hiroshi; Ichikawa, Kazuhisa

2013-10-01

Transcription factor NF-κB is activated by cytokine stimulation, viral infection, or hypoxic environment leading to its translocation to the nucleus. The nuclear NF-κB is exported from the nucleus to the cytoplasm again, and by repetitive import and export, NF-κB shows damped oscillation with the period of 1.5-2.0 h. Oscillation pattern of NF-κB is thought to determine the gene expression profile. We published a report on a computational simulation for the oscillation of nuclear NF-κB in a 3D spherical cell, and showed the importance of spatial parameters such as diffusion coefficient and locus of translation for determining the oscillation pattern. Although the value of diffusion coefficient is inherent to protein species, its effective value can be modified by organelle crowding in intracellular space. Here we tested this possibility by computer simulation. The results indicate that the effective value of diffusion coefficient is significantly changed by the organelle crowding, and this alters the oscillation pattern of nuclear NF-κB.

Dynamic states of a unidirectional ring of chen oscillators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carvalho, Ana; Pinto, Carla M.A.

2015-03-10

We study curious dynamical patterns appearing in a network of a unidirectional ring of Chen oscillators coupled to a ‘buffer’ cell. The network has Z{sub 3} exact symmetry group. We simulate the coupled cell systems associated to the two networks and obtain steady-states, rotating waves, quasiperiodic behavior, and chaos. The different patterns appear to arise through a sequence of Hopf, period-doubling and period-halving bifurcations. The network architecture appears to explain some patterns, whereas the properties of the chaotic oscillator may explain others. We use XPPAUT and MATLAB to compute numerically the relevant states.

Regular and irregular patterns of self-localized excitation in arrays of coupled phase oscillators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfrum, Matthias; Omel'chenko, Oleh E.; Sieber, Jan

We study a system of phase oscillators with nonlocal coupling in a ring that supports self-organized patterns of coherence and incoherence, called chimera states. Introducing a global feedback loop, connecting the phase lag to the order parameter, we can observe chimera states also for systems with a small number of oscillators. Numerical simulations show a huge variety of regular and irregular patterns composed of localized phase slipping events of single oscillators. Using methods of classical finite dimensional chaos and bifurcation theory, we can identify the emergence of chaotic chimera states as a result of transitions to chaos via period doublingmore » cascades, torus breakup, and intermittency. We can explain the observed phenomena by a mechanism of self-modulated excitability in a discrete excitable medium.« less

Na3Tb(PO4)2: Synthesis, crystal structure and greenish emitting properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dan; Ma, Zhao; Liu, Bao-Zhong; Zhang, Rui-Juan; Wu, Zhi-Qiang; Wang, Jian; Duan, Pei-Gao

2018-03-01

A anhydrous orthoborate Na3Tb(PO4)2 has been prepared and its crystal structure was determined by X-Ray diffraction of a non-merohedral twinned single crystal. The results show that the compound crystallizes in monoclinic space group C2/c and the structure features a 3D framework containing PO4, NaO6, NaO7, NaO8 and TbO8 polyhedra. Under near-UV excitation (370 nm), Na3Tb(PO4)2 shows intense characteristic emission bands of Tb3+ (490 nm, 543 nm, 585 nm and 620 nm) with the CIE coordinate of (0.3062, 0.5901), corresponding to greenish color. The excitation spectrum covers a wide range from 340 nm to 390 nm, which indicates that phosphor Na3Tb(PO4)2 can be efficiently activated by near-UV LED ship.

The Chemistry of Meteoric Metals in the Upper Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

The metals Na, Li, K, Ca and Fe have been observed around 90 km in the earth's upper atmosphere. Meteoric ablation is believed to be the source of these metals. The mesospheric chemistry of these metals and their impact on the general chemistry of the atmosphere are poorly understood. Therefore, a detailed investigation of processes affecting the gas -phase chemistry of these metals was undertaken. Both kinetic and photochemical studies were carried out using the techniques of pulsed photolysis of a suitable metal precursor and laser induced fluorescence of the resulting metal atoms. Ab initio calculations were also carried out to study the geometries of the metallic species and calculate their thermochemical properties. Kinetic investigations on the recombination reactions of the alkali metals with O_2 were performed over an extended temperature range (230-1100 K) in an attempt to understand their different seasonal behavior. The three reactions have very similar temperature dependences over the experimental temperature range. Use of the Troe formalism indicates that this dependency will continue into the mesospheric temperature range (140-240 K). The similarity suggests that differences in the temperature dependence of these reactions are not responsible for the different seasonal behavior of the alkali metals. The lower limits for the bond energies of the alkali superoxides were estimated from the kinetic decays obtained at 1100 K, and then combined with ab initio calculations to yield recommended bond energies. These values are of use in the Troe formalism and the mesospheric models. To assess the effectiveness of NaO_2 as a daytime sink, the absolute cross-section for photodissociation of NaO_2 was measured at 230 K. The photolysis rate of NaO_2 was derived above 70 km. The results indicate that above 85 km the reaction between NaO_2 and O is a more important loss term for NaO _2 than daytime photolysis and that between 80 and 65 km the photolysis of NaO_2 is the dominant loss term. From the photolysis experiment, an atmospherically important new Na species, NaO _4, was identified. The bimolecular reactions of Na with HCl/DCl, N_2O, and Li with H_2 O were investigated. The possible role of the reaction between NaCl and H in the chlorine catalyzed destruction of O_3 was explored. Finally, the role of the reactions of dissociative electron attachment to NaHCO_3 and NaCO_3 in the formation of sudden sodium layers above 90 km was examined by ab initio and thermochemical calculations. The results indicate that NaHCO_3, an unreactive species in the mesosphere, can result in the formation of SSLs on collision with energetic auroral electrons.

Relationships between hippocampal sharp waves, ripples and fast gamma oscillation: influence of dentate and entorhinal cortical activity

PubMed Central

Sullivan, David; Csicsvari, Jozsef; Mizuseki, Kenji; Montgomery, Sean; Diba, Kamran; Buzsáki, György

2011-01-01

Summary Hippocampal sharp waves (SPW) and associated fast (‘ripple’) oscillations in the CA1 region are among the most synchronous physiological patterns in the mammalian brain. Using two-dimensional arrays of electrodes for recording local field potentials and unit discharges in freely moving rats, we studied the emergence of ripple oscillations (140–220 Hz) and compared their origin and cellular-synaptic mechanisms with fast gamma oscillations (90–140 Hz). We show that (a) hippocampal SPW-Rs and fast gamma oscillations are quantitatively distinct patterns but involve the same networks and share similar mechanisms, (b) both the frequency and magnitude of fast oscillations is positively correlated with the magnitude of SPWs, (c) during both ripples and fast gamma oscillations the frequency of network oscillation is higher in CA1 than in CA3, (d) SPWs and associated firing of neurons are synchronous in the dorsal hippocampus and dorso-medial entorhinal cortex but ripples are confined to the CA1 pyramidal layer and its downstream targets and (e) the emergence of CA3 population bursts, a prerequisite for SPW-ripples, is biased by activity patterns in the dentate gyrus and entorhinal cortex, with highest probability of ripples associated with an ‘optimum’ level of dentate gamma power. We hypothesize that each hippocampal subnetwork possesses distinct resonant properties, tuned by the magnitude of the excitatory drive. PMID:21653864

Thermally driven oscillations and wave motion of a liquid drop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, K. J.; Hendricks, R. C.; Schoessow, G. J.

1977-01-01

In the state of Leidenfrost boiling, liquid drops are observed to vibrate in a variety of modal patterns. Theories are presented which predict the frequency of oscillation and show that the observed modal patterns of drops correspond to the minimum energy oscillatory excitation state. High-speed photographic techniques were used to record these motions and substantiate the theories. An incipient temperature was also found for water drops in film boiling below which free oscillations do not exist. In addition to these oscillations, photographic sequences are presented which show that wave motion can exist along the circumference of the drop. Following the study of free oscillations, the system was mounted on a shaker table and the drop subjected to a range of forced frequencies and accelerations.

Thermally Driven Oscillations and Wave Motion of a Liquid Drop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baumeister, K. J.; Hendricks, R. C.; Schoessow, G. J.

1977-01-01

In the state of Leidenfrost boiling, liquid drops are observed to vibrate in a variety of modal patterns. Theories are presented which predict the frequency of oscillation and show that the observed model patterns of drops correspond to the minimum energy oscillatory excitation state. High-speed photographic techniques were used to record these motions and substantiate the theories. An incipient temperature was also found for water drops in film boiling below which free oscillations do not exist. In addition to these oscillations, photographic sequences are presented which show that wave motion can exist along the circumference of the drop. Following the study of free oscillations, the system was mounted on a shaker table and the drop subjected to a range of forced frequencies and accelerations.

Membrane-bound MinDE complex acts as a toggle switch that drives Min oscillation coupled to cytoplasmic depletion of MinD.

PubMed

Vecchiarelli, Anthony G; Li, Min; Mizuuchi, Michiyo; Hwang, Ling Chin; Seol, Yeonee; Neuman, Keir C; Mizuuchi, Kiyoshi

2016-03-15

The Escherichia coli Min system self-organizes into a cell-pole to cell-pole oscillator on the membrane to prevent divisions at the cell poles. Reconstituting the Min system on a lipid bilayer has contributed to elucidating the oscillatory mechanism. However, previous in vitro patterns were attained with protein densities on the bilayer far in excess of those in vivo and failed to recapitulate the standing wave oscillations observed in vivo. Here we studied Min protein patterning at limiting MinD concentrations reflecting the in vivo conditions. We identified "burst" patterns--radially expanding and imploding binding zones of MinD, accompanied by a peripheral ring of MinE. Bursts share several features with the in vivo dynamics of the Min system including standing wave oscillations. Our data support a patterning mechanism whereby the MinD-to-MinE ratio on the membrane acts as a toggle switch: recruiting and stabilizing MinD on the membrane when the ratio is high and releasing MinD from the membrane when the ratio is low. Coupling this toggle switch behavior with MinD depletion from the cytoplasm drives a self-organized standing wave oscillator.

A long-term nearshore wave hindcast for Ireland: Atlantic and Irish Sea coasts (1979-2012). Present wave climate and energy resource assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallagher, Sarah; Tiron, Roxana; Dias, Frédéric

2014-08-01

The Northeast Atlantic possesses some of the highest wave energy levels in the world. The recent years have witnessed a renewed interest in harnessing this vast energy potential. Due to the complicated geomorphology of the Irish coast, there can be a significant variation in both the wave and wind climate. Long-term hindcasts with high spatial resolution, properly calibrated against available measurements, provide vital information for future deployments of ocean renewable energy installations. These can aid in the selection of adequate locations for potential deployment and for the planning and design of those marine operations. A 34-year (from 1979 to 2012), high-resolution wave hindcast was performed for Ireland including both the Atlantic and Irish Sea coasts, with a particular focus on the wave energy resource. The wave climate was estimated using the third-generation spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III®; version 4.11, the unstructured grid formulation. The wave model was forced with directional wave spectral data and 10-m winds from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, which is available from 1979 to the present. The model was validated against available observed satellite altimeter and buoy data, particularly in the nearshore, and was found to be excellent. A strong spatial and seasonal variability was found for both significant wave heights, and the wave energy flux, particularly on the north and west coasts. A strong correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection pattern and wave heights, wave periods, and peak direction in winter and also, to a lesser extent, in spring was identified.

Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Causes and Consequences of Exceptional North Atlantic Heat Loss in Recent Winters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon; Grist, Jeremy; Duchez, Aurelie; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Hirschi, Joel; Marsh, Robert; Sinha, Bablu

2016-04-01

The mid-high latitude North Atlantic loses large amounts of heat to the atmosphere in winter leading to dense water formation. An examination of reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR) reveals that heat loss in the recent winters 2013-14 and 2014-15 was exceptionally strong. The causes and consequences of this extraordinary ocean heat loss will be discussed. In 2013-2014, the net air-sea heat flux anomaly averaged over the whole winter exceeded 100 Wm-2 in the eastern subpolar gyre (the most extreme in the period since 1979 spanned by ERA-Interim). The causes of this extreme heat loss will be shown to be severe latent and sensible heat fluxes driven primarily by anomalously strong westerly airflows from North America and northerly airflows originating in the Nordic Seas. The associated sea level pressure anomaly field reflects the dominance of the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) over the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in this winter. The extreme winter heat loss had a significant impact on the ocean extending from the sea surface into the deeper layers and a re-emergent cold Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly is evident in November 2014. The following winter 2014-15 experienced further extreme heat loss that served to amplify the strength of the re-emergent SST anomaly. By summer 2015, an unprecedented cold mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean surface temperature anomaly is evident in observations and has been widely referred to as the 'big blue blob'. The role played by the extreme surface heat loss in the preceding winters in generating this feature and it subsequent evolution through winter 2015-16 will be explored.

Biological and climate controls on North Atlantic marine carbon dynamics over the last millennium: Insights from an absolutely-dated shell based record from the North Icelandic Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, I. R.; Reynolds, D.; Scourse, J. D.; Richardson, C.; Wanamaker, A. D.; Butler, P. G.

2017-12-01

Given the rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (pCO2) over the industrial era there is a pressing need to construct longterm records of natural carbon cycling prior to this perturbation and to develop a more robust understanding of the role the oceans play in the sequestration of atmospheric carbon. Here we reconstruct the historical biological and climatic controls on the carbon isotopic (δ13C-shell) composition of the North Icelandic shelf waters over the last millennium derived from the shells of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusc Arctica islandica. Variability in the annually resolved δ13C-shell record is dominated by multi-decadal variability with a negative trend (-0.003±0.002‰yr-1) over the industrial era (1800-2000). This trend is consistent with the marine Suess effect brought about by the sequestration of isotopically light carbon (δ13C of CO2) derived from the burning of fossil fuels. Comparison of the δ13C-shell record with contemporary proxy archives, over the last millennium, and instrumental data over the 20th century, suggests that primary productivity and climate conditions over the sub-polar North Atlantic region played a vital role in driving inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variability in the δ13C-shell record. Our results highlight that relative shifts in the proportion of sub-polar mode waters and Arctic intermediate waters entrained onto the North Icelandic shelf, coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns associated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO), are the likely physical mechanisms that drive natural variations in seawater δ13C variability on the North Icelandic shelf.