Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

PubMed

Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

2010-01-01

To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

Colloquium paper: how many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct?

PubMed

Hubbell, Stephen P; He, Fangliang; Condit, Richard; Borda-de-Agua, Luís; Kellner, James; Ter Steege, Hans

2008-08-12

New roads, agricultural projects, logging, and mining are claiming an ever greater area of once-pristine Amazonian forest. The Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MA) forecasts the extinction of a large fraction of Amazonian tree species based on projected loss of forest cover over the next several decades. How accurate are these estimates of extinction rates? We use neutral theory to estimate the number, relative abundance, and range size of tree species in the Amazon metacommunity and estimate likely tree-species extinctions under published optimistic and nonoptimistic Amazon scenarios. We estimate that the Brazilian portion of the Amazon Basin has (or had) 11,210 tree species that reach sizes >10 cm DBH (stem diameter at breast height). Of these, 3,248 species have population sizes >1 million individuals, and, ignoring possible climate-change effects, almost all of these common species persist under both optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios. At the rare end of the abundance spectrum, however, neutral theory predicts the existence of approximately 5,308 species with <10,000 individuals each that are expected to suffer nearly a 50% extinction rate under the nonoptimistic deforestation scenario and an approximately 37% loss rate even under the optimistic scenario. Most of these species have small range sizes and are highly vulnerable to local habitat loss. In ensembles of 100 stochastic simulations, we found mean total extinction rates of 20% and 33% of tree species in the Brazilian Amazon under the optimistic and nonoptimistic scenarios, respectively.

Microbial control of the gypsy moth in recently infested states: experiences and expectations

Treesearch

Timothy C. Tigner

1985-01-01

Experiences and expectations concerning microbial control of the gypsy moth in recently infested states are summarized. Initial experience included mixed results, but expectations remain optimistic. Public sentiment assures continued pressure for improvement in microbial control technology.

Establishing Realistic Patient Expectations Following Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Husain, Adeel; Lee, Gwo-Chin

2015-12-01

Nearly 20% of patients are dissatisfied following well-performed total knee arthroplasty with good functional outcomes. Surgeons must understand the drivers of dissatisfaction to minimize the number of unhappy patients following surgery. Several studies have shown that unfulfilled expectations are a principal source of patient dissatisfaction. Patients contemplating total knee arthroplasty expect pain relief, improved walking ability, return to sports, and improvement in psychological well-being and social interactions. However, patients are typically overly optimistic with regard to expected outcomes following surgery. Patient expectations and satisfaction can be influenced by age, socioeconomic factors, sex, and race. The interplay of these factors can be complex and specific to each person. Published data on clinical and functional outcomes show that persistence of symptoms, such as pain, stiffness, and failure to return to preoperative levels of function, are common and normal. Therefore, the surgeon needs to help the patient to establish realistic expectations. Copyright 2015 by the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons.

Deep brain stimulation in the media: over-optimistic portrayals call for a new strategy involving journalists and scientists in ethical debates.

PubMed

Gilbert, Frédéric; Ovadia, Daniela

2011-01-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is optimistically portrayed in contemporary media. This already happened with psychosurgery during the first half of the twentieth century. The tendency of popular media to hype the benefits of DBS therapies, without equally highlighting risks, fosters public expectations also due to the lack of ethical analysis in the scientific literature. Media are not expected (and often not prepared) to raise the ethical issues which remain unaddressed by the scientific community. To obtain a more objective portrayal of DBS in the media, a deeper collaboration between the science community and journalists, and particularly specialized ones, must be promoted. Access to databases and articles, directly or through science media centers, has also been proven effective in increasing the quality of reporting. This article has three main objectives. Firstly, to explore the past media coverage of leukotomy, and to examine its widespread acceptance and the neglect of ethical issues in its depiction. Secondly, to describe how current enthusiastic coverage of DBS causes excessive optimism and neglect of ethical issues in patients. Thirdly, to discuss communication models and strategies to enhance media and science responsibility.

Deep Brain Stimulation in the Media: Over-Optimistic Portrayals Call for a New Strategy Involving Journalists and Scientists in Ethical Debates

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Frédéric; Ovadia, Daniela

2011-01-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is optimistically portrayed in contemporary media. This already happened with psychosurgery during the first half of the twentieth century. The tendency of popular media to hype the benefits of DBS therapies, without equally highlighting risks, fosters public expectations also due to the lack of ethical analysis in the scientific literature. Media are not expected (and often not prepared) to raise the ethical issues which remain unaddressed by the scientific community. To obtain a more objective portrayal of DBS in the media, a deeper collaboration between the science community and journalists, and particularly specialized ones, must be promoted. Access to databases and articles, directly or through science media centers, has also been proven effective in increasing the quality of reporting. This article has three main objectives. Firstly, to explore the past media coverage of leukotomy, and to examine its widespread acceptance and the neglect of ethical issues in its depiction. Secondly, to describe how current enthusiastic coverage of DBS causes excessive optimism and neglect of ethical issues in patients. Thirdly, to discuss communication models and strategies to enhance media and science responsibility. PMID:21617733

Do you believe in brain training? A questionnaire about expectations of computerised cognitive training.

PubMed

Rabipour, Sheida; Davidson, Patrick S R

2015-12-15

"Brain training" (i.e., enhancing, rehabilitating, or simply maintaining cognitive function through deliberate cognitive exercise) is growing rapidly in popularity, yet remains highly controversial. Among the greatest problems in current research is the lack of a measure of participants' expectations, which can influence the degree to which they improve over training (i.e., the placebo effect). Here we created a questionnaire to measure the perceived effectiveness of brain-training software. Given the growth in advertising of these programmes, we sought to determine whether even a brief positive (or negative) message about brain training would increase (or decrease) the reported optimism of participants. We measured participants' expectations at baseline, and then following exposure to separate, brief messages that such programmes have either high or low effectiveness. Based on the knowledge they have gleaned from advertising and other real-world sources, people are relatively optimistic about brain training. However, brief messages can influence reported expectations about brain-training results: Reading a brief positive message can increase reported optimism, whereas reading a brief negative message can decrease it. Older adults appear more optimistic about brain training than young adults, especially when they report being knowledgeable about brain training and computers. These data indicate that perceptions of brain training are malleable to at least some extent, and may vary depending on age and other factors. Our questionnaire can serve as a simple, easily-incorporated tool to assess the face validity of brain training interventions and to create a covariate to account for expectations in statistical analyses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimistic bias, advertising skepticism, and consumer intentions for seeking information about the health risks of prescription medicine.

PubMed

Park, Jin Seong; Ahn, Ho-Young Anthony; Haley, Eric John

2017-01-01

Based on a survey of prescription drug users (N = 408), this study revealed that: (a) the frequency of consumers' personal experience of prescription medicine adverse reactions negatively related to the extent of their optimistic bias about the chances of such events, (b) consumers' perceived personal control over adverse reactions positively related to optimistic bias, and (c) optimistic bias related more negatively to intentions to seek risk information when consumer skepticism toward direct-to-consumer advertising was high. When skepticism was low to average, optimistic bias did not inhibit such intentions. Implications and recommendations for the practice of direct-to-consumer advertising are provided.

Opening the Door: The Experience of Chronic Critical Illness in a Long-Term Acute Care Hospital.

PubMed

Lamas, Daniela J; Owens, Robert L; Nace, R Nicholas; Massaro, Anthony F; Pertsch, Nathan J; Gass, Jonathon; Bernacki, Rachelle E; Block, Susan D

2017-04-01

Chronically critically ill patients have recurrent infections, organ dysfunction, and at least half die within 1 year. They are frequently cared for in long-term acute care hospitals, yet little is known about their experience in this setting. Our objective was to explore the understanding and expectations and goals of these patients and surrogates. We conducted semi-structured interviews with chronically critically ill long-term acute care hospital patients or surrogates. Conversations were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed. One long-term acute care hospital. Chronically critically ill patients, defined by tracheotomy for prolonged mechanical ventilation, or surrogates. Semi-structured conversation about quality of life, expectations, and planning for setbacks. A total of 50 subjects (30 patients and 20 surrogates) were enrolled. Thematic analyses demonstrated: 1) poor quality of life for patients; 2) surrogate stress and anxiety; 3) optimistic health expectations; 4) poor planning for medical setbacks; and 5) disruptive care transitions. Nearly 80% of patient and their surrogate decision makers identified going home as a goal; 38% were at home at 1 year. Our study describes the experience of chronically critically ill patients and surrogates in an long-term acute care hospital and the feasibility of patient-focused research in this setting. Our findings indicate overly optimistic expectations about return home and unmet palliative care needs, suggesting the need for integration of palliative care within the long-term acute care hospital. Further research is also needed to more fully understand the challenges of this growing population of ICU survivors.

Family (Dis)Advantage and Life Course Expectations*

PubMed Central

Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick; Hitlin, Steven

2016-01-01

Optimistic assessments of life chances can positively influence life outcomes, but conflicting theories suggest these assessments either reflect structural privilege or develop as a result of childhood hardship. In addition, competing hypotheses suggest that these assessments may matter differently depending on who holds them. We examine whether family socioeconomic status shapes adolescents’ expectations about how successful their lives will turn out. We distinguish generalized life expectations (GLE), capturing anticipated success in life across multiple domains, from intergenerational comparative expectations (ICE), which register expectations about improvement relative to observed success within the respondent’s family lineage. We find that adolescents from higher socioeconomic status families are simultaneously more optimistic about their likely success in life (GLE) but less likely to anticipate relative improvement in life success across generations (ICE). Holding high GLE in combination with low ICE predicted doing better in adulthood across a range of health, attainment, and well-being outcomes, though in most cases high GLE, regardless of ICE, was the key. These beneficial patterns are, for the most part, at least as beneficial for socioeconomically disadvantaged youth as they are for advantaged youth. PMID:28408766

The Concept of Expectancy: A Central Factor in Various Personality Dispositions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haugen, Richard; Ommundsen, Yngvar; Lund, Thorleif

2004-01-01

The hypothesis that the concept of expectancy is a central common core of various personality dispositions was investigated among 228 students of general education and physical education. The participants were scored on the following personality dispositions: global and academic self-concept, optimistic-pessimistic attributional style, motive to…

An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

2014-06-01

This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Sociology of Low Expectations: Recalibration as Innovation Work in Biomedicine.

PubMed

Gardner, John; Samuel, Gabrielle; Williams, Clare

2015-11-01

Social scientists have drawn attention to the role of hype and optimistic visions of the future in providing momentum to biomedical innovation projects by encouraging innovation alliances. In this article, we show how less optimistic, uncertain, and modest visions of the future can also provide innovation projects with momentum. Scholars have highlighted the need for clinicians to carefully manage the expectations of their prospective patients. Using the example of a pioneering clinical team providing deep brain stimulation to children and young people with movement disorders, we show how clinicians confront this requirement by drawing on their professional knowledge and clinical expertise to construct visions of the future with their prospective patients; visions which are personalized, modest, and tainted with uncertainty. We refer to this vision-constructing work as recalibration, and we argue that recalibration enables clinicians to manage the tension between the highly optimistic and hyped visions of the future that surround novel biomedical interventions, and the exigencies of delivering those interventions in a clinical setting. Drawing on work from science and technology studies, we suggest that recalibration enrolls patients in an innovation alliance by creating a shared understanding of how the "effectiveness" of an innovation shall be judged.

Beta > 1 Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Robert

2017-10-01

I have suggested that fusion researchers should put more effort into the study of beta > 1 or wall confined plasmas. Magneto-Inertial Fusion and Magnetized Target Fusion projects at Los Alamos National Laboratory are recent examples of this sort of work. Unfortunately, theoretical studies of such systems may be employing overly optimistic models of the magnetic thermal insulation. One might well expect such systems to have stochastic field lines. If that is the case then we might want to employ turbulent thermal insulation as suggested in my papers: Current Science, pg 991, 1988 and Bull. Am. Phys. Soc., Nov. 4, 2009.

Ego depletion and positive illusions: does the construction of positivity require regulatory resources?

PubMed

Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias; Frey, Dieter

2007-09-01

Individuals frequently exhibit positive illusions about their own abilities, their possibilities to control their environment, and future expectations. The authors propose that positive illusions require resources of self-control, which is considered to be a limited resource similar to energy or strength. Five studies revealed that people with depleted self-regulatory resources indeed exhibited a less-optimistic sense of their own abilities (Study 1), a lower sense of subjective control (Study 2), and less-optimistic expectations about their future (Study 3). Two further studies shed light on the underlying psychological process: Ego-depleted (compared to nondepleted) individuals generated/retrieved less positive self-relevant attributes (Studies 4 and 5) and reported a lower sense of general self-efficacy (Study 5), which both partially mediated the impact of ego depletion on positive self-views (Study 5).

Academic Coping Styles, Self-Concept, and Stress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Charles R.; And Others

College students employ a number of cognitive strategies to help them cope with stress and anxiety. Some students expect to do well and have done well in the past (optimists), while others have done well in the past but expect to perform poorly on future tasks (defense-pessimists). Such coping strategies have been presumed to cushion self-esteem…

Tracking pollutant emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentner, Drew R.; Xiong, Fulizi

2017-12-01

Progress in the post-combustion treatment of diesel vehicle exhaust has led to shifting proportions of the constituents of nitrogen oxides. Observations from 61 European cities suggest that the outlook on attaining NO2 standards is more optimistic than expected.

The Smoking Abstinence Questionnaire: Measurement of smokers’ abstinence-related expectancies

PubMed Central

Hendricks, Peter S.; Wood, Sabrina B.; Baker, Majel R.; Delucchi, Kevin L.; Hall, Sharon M.

2011-01-01

AIM To develop and validate a measure of smokers’ expectancies for the abstinence process upon quitting smoking: the Smoking Abstinence Questionnaire (SAQ). DESIGN Principal component analysis and other psychometric analyses of self-report data. SETTING San Francisco, California. PARTICIPANTS 507 adult smokers of at least 10 cigarettes per day diverse in gender, sexual orientation, and ethnoracial status. MEASUREMENTS The primary measure was a draft version of the SAQ. Additional measures assessed a variety of other smoking-related constructs. FINDINGS Principal component analyses revealed 10 factors of the SAQ: Withdrawal, Social Improvement/Nonsmoker Identity, Adverse Outcomes, Treatment Effectiveness, Common Reasons, Barriers to Treatment, Social Support, Optimistic Outcomes, Coffee Use, and Weight Gain. The SAQ factors demonstrated internal consistencies ranging from .62 to .85 and were associated with tobacco dependence, motivation to quit, abstinence self-efficacy, withdrawal symptoms, dietary restraint, shape and weight concern, and tobacco use expectancies. The SAQ predicted smoking-related constructs above and beyond tobacco use expectancies, suggesting that abstinence-related expectancies and tobacco use expectancies are distinct from one another. CONCLUSIONS A newly developed questionnaire, the SAQ, appears to reliably capture smokers’ expectancies for abstinence (Withdrawal, Social Improvement/Nonsmoker Identity, Adverse Outcomes, Common Reasons, Optimistic Outcomes, Coffee Use, and Weight Gain) and expectancies related to the success of a quit attempt (Treatment Effectiveness, Barriers to Treatment, and Social Support). It remains to be seen how far any of these expectancies predict attempts to quit, withdrawal, treatment utilization and response, and quitting success above and beyond existing measures. PMID:21205053

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism

PubMed Central

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S.; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J.

2018-01-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people’s futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself. PMID:29381448

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism.

PubMed

Kappes, Andreas; Faber, Nadira S; Kahane, Guy; Savulescu, Julian; Crockett, Molly J

2018-03-01

An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected good news but neglect worse-than-expected bad news. Because evidence suggests that this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about other people's futures, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrated the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and showed that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself.

Children's explanations of the intentions underlying others' behaviour.

PubMed

Grant, Meridith G; Mills, Candice M

2011-09-01

This study investigated developmental differences in children's explanations of the intentions underlying the behaviours of others, including behaviours that conflicted with their expectations. Children aged 6-13 and adults explained the intentions underlying their predictions of behaviour following stories with ambiguous, positive, and negative cues. Children were then presented with experimenter-provided conflicting behaviour and explained again. Results indicated that with no clear cues, children and adults had optimistic expectations. When cues were provided, participants across development provided explanations consistent with positive cues, but children under age 10 were reluctant to provide explanations consistent with negative cues, despite good recall. When explaining conflicting behaviour, people may hesitate to overlook suspicions of negative intent sometimes even in the face of good behaviour, and this reluctance may increase with age. Findings suggest we may all overcome an optimistic bias, but children under age 10 may struggle more to do so. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

[Prognosis of survival in advanced cancer].

PubMed

de Arriba Méndez, J J

2007-01-01

Accurate prognoses are important in the care of patients with advanced cancer to assist clinicians in their decision making, and to help patients set their goals and priorities. Several studies have demonstrated that doctors are inaccurate and overly optimistic when predicting the survival of patients with advanced and terminal cancer. To improve prognostic accuracy, clinicians can use a number of factors that have proven to be associated with life expectancy: performance status, some signs and symptoms and some laboratory markers. Prognostic scores including most of the factors are also developed. Patients and their families can benefit from realistic prognostic information in a simple and empathetic manner.

Induced optimism as mental rehearsal to decrease depressive predictive certainty.

PubMed

Miranda, Regina; Weierich, Mariann; Khait, Valerie; Jurska, Justyna; Andersen, Susan M

2017-03-01

The present study examined whether practice in making optimistic future-event predictions would result in change in the hopelessness-related cognitions that characterize depression. Individuals (N = 170) with low, mild, and moderate-to-severe depressive symptoms were randomly assigned to a condition in which they practiced making optimistic future-event predictions or to a control condition in which they viewed the same stimuli but practiced determining whether a given phrase contained an adjective. Overall, individuals in the induced optimism condition showed increases in optimistic predictions, relative to the control condition, as a result of practice, but only individuals with moderate-to-severe symptoms of depression who practiced making optimistic future-event predictions showed decreases in depressive predictive certainty, relative to the control condition. In addition, they showed gains in efficiency in making optimistic predictions over the practice blocks, as assessed by response time. There was no difference in depressed mood by practice condition. Mental rehearsal might be one way of changing the hopelessness-related cognitions that characterize depression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

(Some) Things Are Different Now: An Optimistic Look at Sexual Prejudice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kite, Mary E.

2011-01-01

There is ample reason to be discouraged about the prevalence of sexual prejudice. As Herek (2000) notes, the majority of adult respondents in the United States report that homosexual behavior is wrong or "unnatural." The author readily acknowledges, then, that it is overly optimistic to believe that sexual prejudice is a thing of the past or that…

Randomized trial of the effect of drug presentation on asthma outcomes: the American Lung Association Asthma Clinical Research Centers.

PubMed

Wise, Robert A; Bartlett, Susan J; Brown, Ellen D; Castro, Mario; Cohen, Rubin; Holbrook, Janet T; Irvin, Charles G; Rand, Cynthia S; Sockrider, Marianna M; Sugar, Elizabeth A

2009-09-01

Information that enhances expectations about drug effectiveness improves the response to placebos for pain. Although asthma symptoms often improve with placebo, it is not known whether the response to placebo or active treatment can be augmented by increasing expectation of benefit. The study objective was to determine whether response to placebo or a leukotriene antagonist (montelukast) can be augmented by messages that increase expectation of benefit. A randomized 20-center controlled trial enrolled 601 asthmatic patients with poor symptom control who were assigned to one of 5 study groups. Participants were randomly assigned to one of 4 treatment groups in a factorial design (ie, placebo with enhanced messages, placebo with neutral messages, montelukast with enhanced messages, or montelukast with neutral messages) or to usual care. Assignment to study drug was double masked, assignment to message content was single masked, and usual care was not masked. The enhanced message aimed to increase expectation of benefit from the drug. The primary outcome was mean change in daily peak flow over 4 weeks. Secondary outcomes included lung function and asthma symptom control. Peak flow and other lung function measures were not improved in participants assigned to the enhanced message groups versus the neutral messages groups for either montelukast or placebo; no differences were noted between the neutral placebo and usual care groups. Placebo-treated participants had improved asthma control with the enhanced message but not montelukast-treated participants; the neutral placebo group did have improved asthma control compared with the usual care group after adjusting for baseline difference. Headaches were more common in participants provided messages that mentioned headache as a montelukast side effect. Optimistic drug presentation augments the placebo effect for patient-reported outcomes (asthma control) but not lung function. However, the effect of montelukast was not enhanced by optimistic messages regarding treatment effectiveness.

National Health Objectives for the Year 2000: The Demographic Impact of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoto, Michael A.; Durch, Jane S.

1991-01-01

Demographic impacts of meeting the National Health Objectives for 2000 were studied using life-table methods. Meeting the targets would increase life expectancy at birth by 1.5-2.1 years to 76.6-77.2 years. Modifying the coronary heart disease and unintentional injury targets to be more optimistic would further increase life expectancy. (SLD)

Essays in energy policy and planning modeling under uncertainty: Value of information, optimistic biases, and simulation of capacity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Ming-Che

Optimization and simulation are popular operations research and systems analysis tools for energy policy modeling. This dissertation addresses three important questions concerning the use of these tools for energy market (and electricity market) modeling and planning under uncertainty. (1) What is the value of information and cost of disregarding different sources of uncertainty for the U.S. energy economy? (2) Could model-based calculations of the performance (social welfare) of competitive and oligopolistic market equilibria be optimistically biased due to uncertainties in objective function coefficients? (3) How do alternative sloped demand curves perform in the PJM capacity market under economic and weather uncertainty? How does curve adjustment and cost dynamics affect the capacity market outcomes? To address the first question, two-stage stochastic optimization is utilized in the U.S. national MARKAL energy model; then the value of information and cost of ignoring uncertainty are estimated for three uncertainties: carbon cap policy, load growth and natural gas prices. When an uncertainty is important, then explicitly considering those risks when making investments will result in better performance in expectation (positive expected cost of ignoring uncertainty). Furthermore, eliminating the uncertainty would improve strategies even further, meaning that improved forecasts of future conditions are valuable ( i.e., a positive expected value of information). Also, the value of policy coordination shows the difference between a strategy developed under the incorrect assumption of no carbon cap and a strategy correctly anticipating imposition of such a cap. For the second question, game theory models are formulated and the existence of optimistic (positive) biases in market equilibria (both competitive and oligopoly markets) are proved, in that calculated social welfare and producer profits will, in expectation, exceed the values that will actually be received. Theoretical analyses prove the general existence of this bias for both competitive and oligopolistic models when production costs and demand curves are uncertain. Also demonstrated is an optimistic bias for the net benefits of introducing a new technology into a market when the cost of the new technology is uncertainty. The optimistic biases are quantified for a model of the northwest European electricity market (including Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands). Demand uncertainty results in an optimistic bias of 150,000-220,000 [Euro]/hr of total surplus and natural gas price uncertainty yields a smaller bias of 8,000-10,000 [Euro]/hr for total surplus. Further, adding a new uncertain technology (biomass) to the set of possible generation methods almost doubles the optimistic bias (14,000-18,000 [Euro]/hr). The third question concerns ex ante evaluation of the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM)---the new PJM capacity market---launched in June 2007. A Monte Carlo simulation model is developed to simulate PJM capacity market and predict market performance, producer revenue, and consumer payments. An important input to RPM is a demand curve for capacity; several alternative demand curves are compared, and sensitivity analyses conducted of those conclusions. One conclusion is that the sloped demand curves are more robust because those demand curves gives higher reliability with lower consumer payments. In addition, the performance of the curves is evaluated for a more sophisticated market design in which the demand curve can be adjusted in response to previous market outcomes and where the capital costs may change unexpectedly. The simulation shows that curve adjustment increases system reliability with lower consumer payments. Also the effect of learning-by-doing, leading to lower plant capital costs, leads to higher average reserve margin and lower consumer payments. In contrast, a the sudden rise in capital costs causes a decrease in reliability and an increase in consumer payments.

A Comparison of Positive Outcome Expectancies: A Review of the Theories of M. F. Scheier, C. S. Carver, M. E. P. Seligman, and C. R. Snyder.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bird, William A.

Research has shown that optimistic and pessimistic outcome expectancy evaluations are associated with adaptive and maladaptive levels of psychological functioning, physical wellness, and health recovery issues. The research of M. F. Scheier, C. S. Carver, M. E. P. Seligman, and C. R. Snyder supports the hypothesis that elevated optimism or…

Dispositional Optimism

PubMed Central

Carver, Charles S.; Scheier, Michael F.

2014-01-01

Optimism is a cognitive construct (expectancies regarding future outcomes) that also relates to motivation: optimistic people exert effort, whereas pessimistic people disengage from effort. Study of optimism began largely in health contexts, finding positive associations between optimism and markers of better psychological and physical health. Physical health effects likely occur through differences in both health-promoting behaviors and physiological concomitants of coping. Recently, the scientific study of optimism has extended to the realm of social relations: new evidence indicates that optimists have better social connections, partly because they work harder at them. In this review, we examine the myriad ways this trait can benefit an individual, and our current understanding of the biological basis of optimism. PMID:24630971

How long do patients with chronic disease expect to live? A systematic review of the literature

PubMed Central

Salem, Joseph

2016-01-01

Objective To systematically identify and summarise the literature on perceived life expectancy among individuals with non-cancer chronic disease. Setting Published and grey literature up to and including September 2016 where adults with non-cancer chronic disease were asked to estimate their own life expectancy. Participants From 6837 screened titles, 9 articles were identified that met prespecified criteria for inclusion. Studies came from the UK, Netherlands and USA. A total of 729 participants were included (heart failure (HF) 573; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 89; end-stage renal failure 62; chronic kidney disease (CKD) 5). No papers reporting on other lung diseases, neurodegenerative disease or cirrhosis were found. Primary and secondary outcome measures All measures of self-estimated life expectancy were accepted. Self-estimated life expectancy was compared, where available, with observed survival, physician-estimated life expectancy and model-estimated life expectancy. Meta-analysis was not conducted due to the heterogeneity of the patient groups and study methodologies. Results Among patients with HF, median self-estimated life expectancy was 40% longer than predicted by a validated model. Outpatients receiving haemodialysis were more optimistic about prognosis than their nephrologists and overestimated their chances of surviving 5 years. Patients with HF and COPD were approximately three times more likely to die in the next year than they predicted. Data available for patients with CKD were of insufficient quality to draw conclusions. Conclusions Individuals with chronic disease may have unrealistically optimistic expectations of their prognosis. More research is needed to understand how perceived life expectancy affects behaviour. Meanwhile, clinicians should attempt to identify each patient's prognostic preferences and provide information in a way that they can understand and use to inform their decisions. Trial registration number CRD42015020732. PMID:28039288

Setting Performance Standards for a Cost-Effective Human Immunodeficiency Virus Cure Strategy in South Africa

PubMed Central

Paltiel, A. David; Zheng, Amy; Weinstein, Milton C.; Gaynes, Melanie R.; Wood, Robin; Freedberg, Kenneth A.; Sax, Paul E.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background. Reports of a single case of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) eradication suggest that elimination of HIV from individuals is possible. Anticipating both increased research funding and the development of effective, durable cure technologies, we describe the circumstances under which a cure might improve survival and be cost-effective in South Africa. Methods. We adapted a simulation model comparing a hypothetical cure strategy (“Cure”) to the standard of care, lifetime antiretroviral therapy (“LifetimeART”) among adherent South Africans (58% female; mean age 33.8 years; mean CD4 257/µL; virologic suppression ≥1 year). We portrayed cure as a single intervention, producing sustained viral eradication without ART. We considered both a plausible, more imminently achievable “Baseline Scenario” and a more aspirational “Optimistic Scenario”. Inputs (Baseline/Optimistic) included the following: 50%/75% efficacy; 0.6%/0.0% fatal toxicity; 0.37%/0.085% monthly relapse over 5 years (0.185%/0.0425% per month thereafter); and $2000/$500 cost. These inputs were varied extensively in sensitivity analysis. Results. At baseline, Cure was “dominated,” yielding lower discounted life expectancy (19.31 life-years [LY] vs 19.37 LY) and greater discounted lifetime costs ($13 800 vs $13 700) than LifetimeART. Under optimistic assumptions, Cure was “cost-saving,” producing greater survival (19.91 LY) and lower lifetime costs ($11 000) than LifetimeART. Findings were highly sensitive to data assumptions, leaving little middle ground where a tradeoff existed between improved survival and higher costs. Conclusions. Only under the most favorable performance assumptions will an HIV cure strategy prove clinically and economically justifiable in South Africa. The scientific pursuit of a cure should not undermine continued expansions of access to proven, effective, and cost-effective ART. PMID:28680903

A lunar gravitational wave antenna using a laser interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stebbins, R. T.; Bender, P. L.

1990-03-01

A moon-based laser interferometer for detecting gravitational radiation could detect signals in the band 0.1 - 10,000 Hz. A preliminary evaluation of the noise budget for an optimistic antenna design is reported here and compared to that for other planned gravitational wave interferometers. Over most of the frequency range, the sensitivity is controlled by the thermal noise in the test mass suspensions. From roughly 3 to a few hundred Hertz, it is about the same as the sensitivity expected in terrestrial antennas of the same construction, which will have been operating for at least a decade. Below 0.3 Hz, a proposed space-based interferometer, designed for operation down to 10 exp -5 Hz, would have better sensitivity.

Difference-Sensitive Communities, Networked Learning, and Higher Education: Potentialities and Risks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papastephanou, Marianna

2005-01-01

Recent emphases on prospects for difference-sensitive virtual communities rely implicity or explicity on some optimist accounts of cyberspace and globalization. It is expected that hybridity, diaspora and fluidity, marking new understandings of spatiality and temporality in a globalized postmodern era, will create new forms of belonging that will…

An Appreciative Inquiry into an Urban Drug Court: Cultural Transformation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calabrese, Raymond; Cohen, Erik

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use an appreciative inquiry (AI) theoretical research perspective and change methodology to transform the working relationships and cultural expectations of members through the discovery of their positive core leading to an optimistic and confidence-based future for an urban drug court. This study describes how…

Explaining Optimistic Old Age Disability and Longevity Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costa-Font, Joan; Costa-Font, Montserrat

2011-01-01

Biased health care decision making has been regarded as responsible for inefficient behaviours (for example, the limited insurance purchase). This paper empirically examines two sets of biases in the perception of old age disability and longevity. Particularly, we test for the existence of a so called cumulative bias and, secondly, a so called…

Individuals With OCD Lack Unrealistic Optimism Bias in Threat Estimation.

PubMed

Zetsche, Ulrike; Rief, Winfried; Exner, Cornelia

2015-07-01

Overestimating the occurrence of threatening events has been highlighted as a central cognitive factor in the maintenance of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). The present study examined the different facets of this cognitive bias, its underlying mechanisms, and its specificity to OCD. For this purpose, threat estimation, probabilistic classification learning (PCL) and psychopathological measures were assessed in 23 participants with OCD, 30 participants with social phobia, and 31 healthy controls. Whereas healthy participants showed an optimistic expectation bias regarding positive and negative future events, OCD participants lacked such a bias. This lack of an optimistic expectation bias was not specific to OCD. Compared to healthy controls, OCD participants overestimated their personal risk for experiencing negative events, but did not differ from controls in their risk estimation regarding other people. Finally, OCD participants' biases in the prediction of checking-related events were associated with their impairments in learning probabilistic cue-outcome associations in a disorder-relevant context. In sum, the present results add to a growing body of research demonstrating that cognitive biases in OCD are context-dependent. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

PubMed Central

Levy, David T; Borland, Ron; Lindblom, Eric N; Goniewicz, Maciej L; Meza, Rafael; Holford, Theodore R; Yuan, Zhe; Luo, Yuying; O’Connor, Richard J; Niaura, Raymond; Abrams, David B

2018-01-01

Introduction US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress. Methods A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts. Findings Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016. Conclusions The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm. PMID:28970328

Things are looking up: Physical beauty, social mobility, and optimistic dispositions.

PubMed

Urbatsch, R

2018-03-01

Physical attractiveness tends to inspire friendlier reactions and more positive evaluations from others, so that the beautiful are likelier to succeed across many kinds of endeavors. Does this history of success lead to a more optimistic, hopeful attitude? Evidence from the 2016 General Social Survey and the 1972 National Election Study suggests that it often does: those whom interviewers rate as better-looking tend to report higher expectations that life will turn out well for them, and show signs of greater upward social mobility. Since optimism is itself an important contributor to success in many social endeavors, these findings suggest an understudied mechanism by which beauty leads to better life outcomes, as well as a means by which social interactions may shape personal dispositions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Overtaking method based on sand-sifter mechanism: Why do optimistic value functions find optimal solutions in multi-armed bandit problems?

PubMed

Ochi, Kento; Kamiura, Moto

2015-09-01

A multi-armed bandit problem is a search problem on which a learning agent must select the optimal arm among multiple slot machines generating random rewards. UCB algorithm is one of the most popular methods to solve multi-armed bandit problems. It achieves logarithmic regret performance by coordinating balance between exploration and exploitation. Since UCB algorithms, researchers have empirically known that optimistic value functions exhibit good performance in multi-armed bandit problems. The terms optimistic or optimism might suggest that the value function is sufficiently larger than the sample mean of rewards. The first definition of UCB algorithm is focused on the optimization of regret, and it is not directly based on the optimism of a value function. We need to think the reason why the optimism derives good performance in multi-armed bandit problems. In the present article, we propose a new method, which is called Overtaking method, to solve multi-armed bandit problems. The value function of the proposed method is defined as an upper bound of a confidence interval with respect to an estimator of expected value of reward: the value function asymptotically approaches to the expected value of reward from the upper bound. If the value function is larger than the expected value under the asymptote, then the learning agent is almost sure to be able to obtain the optimal arm. This structure is called sand-sifter mechanism, which has no regrowth of value function of suboptimal arms. It means that the learning agent can play only the current best arm in each time step. Consequently the proposed method achieves high accuracy rate and low regret and some value functions of it can outperform UCB algorithms. This study suggests the advantage of optimism of agents in uncertain environment by one of the simplest frameworks. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Not Quite Kicking off Everywhere: Feminist Notes on Digital Liberation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nagle, Angela

2013-01-01

Increasingly, women's experience of online life seems to run counter to the optimistic expectations of the cyberfeminists of the 90s and the utopian fervour of the present. Female journalists and internet users find themselves at the receiving end of a level of verbal abuse online previously unthinkable in the public sphere. Women are showing…

Optimistic Expectations about Communication Explain Children's Diffculties in Hiding, Lying, and Mistrusting Liars

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mascaro, Olivier; Morin, Olivier; Sperber, Dan

2017-01-01

We suggest that preschoolers' frequent obliviousness to the risks and opportunities of deception comes from a trusting stance supporting verbal communication. Three studies (N = 125) confirm this hypothesis. Three-year-olds can hide information from others (Study 1) and they can lie (Study 2) in simple settings. Yet when one introduces the…

University Students' Causal Conceptions about Social Mobility: Diverging Pathways for Believers in Personal Merit and Luck

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

2013-01-01

Many college students hold ambitious goals for upward social mobility via post-college careers. However, in the current economic recession such optimistic expectations are not a given. The present study examines how college students' current social status and beliefs in causal factors for socioeconomic status (SES) attainment lead to diverging…

God-Mediated Control and Change in Self-Rated Health

PubMed Central

Krause, Neal

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to see if feelings of God-mediated control are associated with change in self-rated health over time. In the process, an effort was made to see if a sense of meaning in life and optimism mediated the relationship between God-mediated control and change in health. The following hypothesized relationships were contained in the conceptual model that was developed to evaluate these issues: (1) people who go to church more often tend to have stronger God-mediated control beliefs than individuals who do not attend worship services as often; (2) people with a strong sense of God-mediated control are more likely to find a sense of meaning in life and be more optimistic than individuals who do not have a strong sense of God-mediated control; (3) people who are optimistic and who have a strong sense of meaning in life will rate their health more favorably over time than individuals who are not optimistic, as well as individuals who have not found a sense of meaning in life. Data from a longitudinal nationwide survey of older adults provided support for each of these hypotheses. PMID:21057586

God-Mediated Control and Change in Self-Rated Health.

PubMed

Krause, Neal

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to see if feelings of God-mediated control are associated with change in self-rated health over time. In the process, an effort was made to see if a sense of meaning in life and optimism mediated the relationship between God-mediated control and change in health. The following hypothesized relationships were contained in the conceptual model that was developed to evaluate these issues: (1) people who go to church more often tend to have stronger God-mediated control beliefs than individuals who do not attend worship services as often; (2) people with a strong sense of God-mediated control are more likely to find a sense of meaning in life and be more optimistic than individuals who do not have a strong sense of God-mediated control; (3) people who are optimistic and who have a strong sense of meaning in life will rate their health more favorably over time than individuals who are not optimistic, as well as individuals who have not found a sense of meaning in life. Data from a longitudinal nationwide survey of older adults provided support for each of these hypotheses.

Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes.

PubMed

Levy, David T; Borland, Ron; Lindblom, Eric N; Goniewicz, Maciej L; Meza, Rafael; Holford, Theodore R; Yuan, Zhe; Luo, Yuying; O'Connor, Richard J; Niaura, Raymond; Abrams, David B

2018-01-01

US tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use ('vaping') in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress. A Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts. Compared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016. The tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Personality factors versus expectations and self-reported symptoms among patients awaiting advanced prosthodontic treatment.

PubMed

Hakestam, U; Söderfeldt, B; Rydén, O; Glantz, P O

1997-09-01

To assess simple questions for identifying patient personality traits among a normal Swedish population and to assess possible relationships between personality and symptoms, attitudes, dental problems, and received dental care, a questionnaire was sent to 489 subjects awaiting prosthodontic treatment (response rate 84.2%). Three personality traits could be identified: "Fearful-depressed" subjects consumed more tranquillisers, were worried and had many symptoms, whilst "Open-minded" were optimistic about treatment, had high expectations and few symptoms. "Control-minded" did not reveal worries and guarded their autonomy. It was concluded that personality indicators were related to clinically relevant factors: salience of teeth, perceptions of problems, dental attendance pattern, expectations and perceptions of symptoms.

Patient Perception of Physician Compassion After a More Optimistic vs a Less Optimistic Message: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Tanco, Kimberson; Rhondali, Wadih; Perez-Cruz, Pedro; Tanzi, Silvia; Chisholm, Gary B; Baile, Walter; Frisbee-Hume, Susan; Williams, Janet; Masino, Charles; Cantu, Hilda; Sisson, Amy; Arthur, Joseph; Bruera, Eduardo

2015-05-01

Information regarding treatment options and prognosis is essential for patient decision making. Patient perception of physicians as being less compassionate when they deliver bad news might be a contributor to physicians' reluctance in delivering these types of communication. To compare patients' perception of physician compassion after watching video vignettes of 2 physicians conveying a more optimistic vs a less optimistic message, determine patients' physician preference after watching both videos, and establish demographic and clinical predictors of compassion. Randomized clinical trial at an outpatient supportive care center in a cancer center in Houston, Texas, including English-speaking adult patients with advanced cancer who were able to understand the nature of the study and complete the consent process. Actors and patients were blinded to the purpose of the study. Investigators were blinded to the videos observed by the patient. One hundred patients were randomized to observe 2 standardized, roughly 4-minute videos depicting a physician discussing treatment information (more optimistic message vs less optimistic message) with a patient with advanced cancer. Both physicians made an identical number of empathetic statements (5) and displayed identical posture. After viewing each video, patients completed assessments including the Physician Compassion Questionnaire (0 = best, 50 = worst). Patients' perception of physician compassion after being exposed to a more optimistic vs an equally empathetic but less optimistic message. Patients reported significantly better compassion scores after watching the more optimistic video as compared with the less optimistic video (median [interquartile range], 15 [5-23] vs 23 [10-31]; P < .001). There was a sequence effect favoring the second video on both compassion scores (P < .001) and physician preference (P < .001). Higher perception of compassion was found to be associated with greater trust in the medical profession independent of message type: 63 patients observing the more optimistic message ranked the physician as trustworthy vs 39 after the less optimistic message (P = .03). Patients perceived a higher level of compassion and preferred physicians who provided a more optimistic message. More research is needed in structuring less optimistic message content to support health care professionals in delivering less optimistic news. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02357108.

Motivational deficit in childhood depression and hyperactivity.

PubMed

Layne, C; Berry, E

1983-07-01

A recent theory states that the immediate cause of adult depression is low motivation, where motivation is the multiplicative product of a person's expectation for a reward times his value for that reward. The present experiment supported the extension of this theory to childhood depression. The expectations, values, and motivations of three groups of children (Ns = 18; mean ages = 10) were measured: A depressed group and a hyperactive control group were selected from a population of clinically disturbed children, while normal controls were selected from regular classrooms. As predicted, the depressed children exhibited reduced motivation, primarily because their expectations were pessimistic. Unexpected findings were that the depressives' expectations were not abnormally irrational; and that hyperactives exhibited optimistic expectations, inflated values, and, hence, inflated motivation--especially for tangible rewards. Cognitive therapy techniques that focus upon expectations were recommended for the treatment of both depressed and hyperactive children.

Newlyweds' optimistic forecasts of their marriage: for better or for worse?

PubMed

Lavner, Justin A; Karney, Benjamin R; Bradbury, Thomas N

2013-08-01

Newlywed spouses routinely hope and believe that their relationships will thrive, but theoretical accounts differ on whether optimistic projections such as believing that one's marriage will improve are sources of strength, random forecasting errors, or self-protective mechanisms. To test these opposing perspectives, we asked 502 newlywed spouses in 251 marriages to predict how their overall feelings about their relationships would change over the following four years, and we then compared these reports to their prospective marital satisfaction trajectories. Nearly all spouses predicted their marital satisfaction would remain stable or improve over the following four years. Marital satisfaction declined on average despite this high overall level of optimism. Wives with the most optimistic forecasts showed the steepest declines in marital satisfaction. These wives also had lower self-esteem and higher levels of stress and physical aggression toward their partners initially. Thus, believing that one's marriage will improve does not make it so and instead may paradoxically mask risky relationships among women. These findings may be important in helping to understand low rates of premarital counseling utilization by showing that nearly all couples overestimate the durability of their existing satisfied feelings at the start of their marriage. Future research is needed to understand the psychological processes allowing couples to commit to and stay in risky relationships. © 2013 American Psychological Association

Newlyweds’ Optimistic Forecasts of their Marriage: For Better or For Worse?

PubMed Central

Lavner, Justin A.; Karney, Benjamin R.; Bradbury, Thomas N.

2013-01-01

Newlywed spouses routinely hope and believe that their relationships will thrive, but theoretical accounts differ on whether optimistic projections such as believing that one’s marriage will improve are sources of strength, random forecasting errors, or self-protective mechanisms. To test these opposing perspectives, we asked 502 newlywed spouses in 251 marriages to predict how their overall feelings about their relationships would change over the following four years, and we then compared these reports to their prospective marital satisfaction trajectories. Nearly all spouses predicted their marital satisfaction would remain stable or improve over the following four years. Marital satisfaction declined on average despite this high overall level of optimism. Wives with the most optimistic forecasts showed the steepest declines in marital satisfaction. These wives also had lower self-esteem and higher levels of stress and physical aggression toward their partners initially. Thus, believing that one’s marriage will improve does not make it so and instead may paradoxically mask risky relationships among women. These findings may be important in helping to understand low rates of premarital counseling utilization by showing that nearly all couples overestimate the durability of their existing satisfied feelings at the start of their marriage. Future research is needed to understand the psychological processes allowing couples to commit to and stay in risky relationships. PMID:23795607

Is the risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia declining?

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M

2015-01-01

The number of older adults with dementia will increase around the world in the decades ahead as populations age. Current estimates suggest that about 4.2 million adults in the US have dementia and that the attributable economic cost of their care is about $200 billion per year. The worldwide dementia prevalence is estimated at 44.3 million people and the total cost at $604 billion per year. It is expected that the worldwide prevalence will triple to 135.5 million by 2050. However, a number of recent population-based studies from countries around the world suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be declining, which could help moderate the expected increase in dementia cases that will accompany the growing number of older adults. At least nine recent population-based studies of dementia incidence or prevalence have shown a declining age-specific risk in the US, England, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. A number of factors, especially rising levels of education and more aggressive treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, may be leading to improving 'brain health' and declining age-specific risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in countries around the world. Multiple epidemiological studies from around the world suggest an optimistic trend of declining population dementia risk in high-income countries over the past 25 years. Rising levels of education and more widespread and successful treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors may be the driving factors accounting for this decline in dementia risk. Whether this optimistic trend will continue in the face of rising worldwide levels of obesity and diabetes and whether this trend is also occurring in low- and middle-income countries are key unanswered questions which will have enormous implications for the extent of the future worldwide impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia on patients, families, and societies in the decades ahead.

Exploring communication pathways to better health: Clinician communication of expectations for acupuncture effectiveness

PubMed Central

Street, Richard L.; Cox, Vanessa; Kallen, Michael A.; Suarez-Almazor, Maria E.

2012-01-01

Objective This study tested a pathway whereby acupuncturists’ communication of optimism for treatment effectiveness would enhance patients’ satisfaction during treatment, which in turn would contribute to better pain and function outcomes for patients with osteoarthritis of the knee. Methods Secondary analysis from a 2 arm (real vs. sham acupuncture, high vs. neutral expectations) RCT. 311 patients with knee osteoarthritis received acupuncture over 10–12 sessions. Coders rated the degree to which acupuncturists communicated optimism for the treatment’s effectiveness. Satisfaction with acupuncture was assessed 4 weeks into treatment. Pain and function were assessed 6 weeks following treatment. Results Patients experiencing better outcomes were more satisfied with acupuncture during treatment, were younger, and had better baseline pain and function scores. Satisfaction during treatment was greater when patients interacted with more optimistic clinicians and had higher pretreatment expectations for acupuncture efficacy. Conclusion Acupuncturists’ communication of optimism about treatment effectiveness contributed to pain and function outcomes indirectly through its effect on satisfaction during treatment. Future research should model pathways through which clinician-patient communication affects mediating variables that in turn lead to improved health outcomes. Practical Implications While clinicians should not mislead patients, communicating hope and optimism for treatment effectiveness has therapeutic value for patients. PMID:22857778

Major complications of central neuraxial block: report on the Third National Audit Project of the Royal College of Anaesthetists.

PubMed

Cook, T M; Counsell, D; Wildsmith, J A W

2009-02-01

Serious complications of central neuraxial block (CNB) are rare. Limited information on their incidence and impact impedes clinical decision-making and patient consent. The Royal College of Anaesthetists Third National Audit Project was designed to inform this situation. A 2 week national census estimated the number of CNB procedures performed annually in the UK National Health Service. All major complications of CNBs performed over 1 yr (vertebral canal abscess or haematoma, meningitis, nerve injury, spinal cord ischaemia, fatal cardiovascular collapse, and wrong route errors) were reported. Each case was reviewed by an expert panel to assess causation, severity, and outcome. 'Permanent' injury was defined as symptoms persisting for more than 6 months. Efforts were made to validate denominator (procedures performed) and numerator (complications) data through national databases. The census phase produced a denominator of 707,455 CNB. Eighty-four major complications were reported, of which 52 met the inclusion criteria at the time they were reported. Data were interpreted 'pessimistically' and 'optimistically'. 'Pessimistically' there were 30 permanent injuries and 'optimistically' 14. The incidence of permanent injury due to CNB (expressed per 100,000 cases) was 'pessimistically' 4.2 (95% confidence interval 2.9-6.1) and 'optimistically' 2.0 (1.1-3.3). 'Pessimistically' there were 13 deaths or paraplegias, 'optimistically' five. The incidence of paraplegia or death was 'pessimistically' 1.8 per 100,000 (1.0-3.1) and 'optimistically' 0.7 (0-1.6). Two-thirds of initially disabling injuries resolved fully. The data are reassuring and suggest that CNB has a low incidence of major complications, many of which resolve within 6 months.

Intensivist-reported Facilitators and Barriers to Discussing Post-Discharge Outcomes with Intensive Care Unit Surrogates. A Qualitative Study

PubMed Central

Davis, Wesley E.; Needham, Dale M.; White, Douglas B.; Eakin, Michelle N.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients’ expected post-discharge outcomes are rarely discussed in family meetings despite this information being centrally important to patients and their families. Objectives: To characterize intensivist-identified barriers and facilitators to discussing post-discharge outcomes with surrogates of ICU patients. Methods: Qualitative study conducted via one-on-one, semistructured telephone interviews with 23 intensivists from 20 hospitals with accreditation council for graduate medical education–accredited critical care medicine programs in 16 states. A limited application of grounded theory methods was used to code transcribed interviews and identify themes and illustrative quotes. Measurements and Main Results: Intensivists reported tension between their professional responsibility to discuss likely functional outcomes versus uncertainty about their ability to predict those outcomes for an individual patient. They cited three main barriers as limiting their ability to conduct conversations about post-discharge outcomes with ICU surrogates: (1) incorrectly optimistic expectations for recovery among ICU surrogates, (2) having little or no contact with their patients after ICU discharge, and (3) minimal confidence applying existing outcomes research to individual patients. Despite these barriers, experience talking to ICU surrogates, seeing ICU survivors in the outpatient setting, and trusted research on functional outcomes were identified as important facilitators to discussing likely patient outcomes with surrogates. Intensivists generally welcomed questions from surrogates about post-discharge outcomes as opportunities to initiate conversations about prognosis and patient values. Conclusions: In this sample of intensivists from 20 academic hospitals, experience conducting conversations with surrogates and interactions with ICU survivors as outpatients were identified as facilitating discussion of expected post-discharge outcomes while optimistic surrogate expectations and prognostic uncertainty were barriers. There was tension between self-perceived ability to prognosticate and belief in a professional obligation to discuss patient outcomes. PMID:27294981

Intensivist-reported Facilitators and Barriers to Discussing Post-Discharge Outcomes with Intensive Care Unit Surrogates. A Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Turnbull, Alison E; Davis, Wesley E; Needham, Dale M; White, Douglas B; Eakin, Michelle N

2016-09-01

Intensive care unit (ICU) patients' expected post-discharge outcomes are rarely discussed in family meetings despite this information being centrally important to patients and their families. To characterize intensivist-identified barriers and facilitators to discussing post-discharge outcomes with surrogates of ICU patients. Qualitative study conducted via one-on-one, semistructured telephone interviews with 23 intensivists from 20 hospitals with accreditation council for graduate medical education-accredited critical care medicine programs in 16 states. A limited application of grounded theory methods was used to code transcribed interviews and identify themes and illustrative quotes. Intensivists reported tension between their professional responsibility to discuss likely functional outcomes versus uncertainty about their ability to predict those outcomes for an individual patient. They cited three main barriers as limiting their ability to conduct conversations about post-discharge outcomes with ICU surrogates: (1) incorrectly optimistic expectations for recovery among ICU surrogates, (2) having little or no contact with their patients after ICU discharge, and (3) minimal confidence applying existing outcomes research to individual patients. Despite these barriers, experience talking to ICU surrogates, seeing ICU survivors in the outpatient setting, and trusted research on functional outcomes were identified as important facilitators to discussing likely patient outcomes with surrogates. Intensivists generally welcomed questions from surrogates about post-discharge outcomes as opportunities to initiate conversations about prognosis and patient values. In this sample of intensivists from 20 academic hospitals, experience conducting conversations with surrogates and interactions with ICU survivors as outpatients were identified as facilitating discussion of expected post-discharge outcomes while optimistic surrogate expectations and prognostic uncertainty were barriers. There was tension between self-perceived ability to prognosticate and belief in a professional obligation to discuss patient outcomes.

Practitioner perspectives matter: Public policy and private investment in the U.S. electric power sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barradale, Merrill Jones

This dissertation examines the influence of attitudes, beliefs, and preferences of energy industry practitioners on investment decision-making with regard to fuel choice for new electric power plants. The conclusions are based on in-depth interviews and an extensive online survey I conducted of 600-800 energy professionals in the U.S. power sector. Chapter 1 analyzes the impact of policy uncertainty on investment decision-making in renewable energy, using the federal production tax credit (PTC) and wind energy investment as an example. It is generally understood that the pattern of repeated expiration and short-term renewal of the PTC causes a boom-bust cycle in wind power plant investment in the U.S. This on-off pattern is detrimental to the wind industry, since ramp-up and ramp-down costs are high, and players are deterred from making long-term investments. The widely held belief that the severe downturn in investment during "off" years implies that wind power is unviable without the PTC turns out to be unsubstantiated: this chapter demonstrates that it is not the absence of the PTC that causes the investment downturn during "off" years, but rather the uncertainty over its return. Specifically, it is the dynamic of power purchase agreement negotiations in the face of PTC renewal uncertainty that drives investment volatility. This suggests that reducing regulatory uncertainty is a crucial component of effective renewable energy policy. The PTC as currently structured is not the only means, existing or potential, for encouraging wind power investment. Using data from my survey, various alternative policy incentives are considered and compared in terms of their perceived reliability for supporting long-term investment. Chapter 2 introduces the concept of expected payment of carbon as a factor in investment decision-making. The notion of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under potential climate change policy) is usually incorporated into investment decision-making by including a cost of carbon in the budget analysis. Most existing literature uses the expected price of carbon as a proxy for this cost, where expected price is a weighted average of various scenarios, often comparing policy proposals and representing either the price of traded permits or level of carbon tax, depending on the type of policy. The literature focuses on the minimum price of carbon required to influence power plant investment decisions. In contrast, this chapter introduces expected payment as a more accurate measure of carbon cost as it is perceived by industry practitioners. The expected payment of carbon is the expected price of carbon times the probability that this cost would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the 2005-2006 surge of activity in coal-fired power plant development and the subsequent decline in that interest. The energy industry has been slow to move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable resources. In chapter 3 I find evidence for a cognitive bias that plays a role in this momentum. Energy executives' expectations of future energy prices are strongly correlated with their own preferences, which I document for the case of natural gas prices. This is an example of wishful expectations, a form of overconfidence in which people are excessively optimistic over uncontrollable future outcomes. This implies energy executives with strong exposure to fossil fuels are excessively optimistic on future prices and so continue to invest despite the presence of superior alternatives.

Optimism for the Future in Younger and Older Adults.

PubMed

Durbin, Kelly A; Barber, Sarah J; Brown, Maddalena; Mather, Mara

2018-01-09

Research has suggested that older adults are less optimistic about their future than younger adults; however, a limitation of prior studies is that younger and older adults were forecasting to different ages and stages of life. To address this, we investigated whether there are age differences in future optimism when people project to the exact same age. We also tested whether optimism differs when projecting one's own future versus another person's future. Participants were 285 younger and 292 older adults recruited from Amazon Mechanical Turk. Participants completed writing and word-rating tasks in which they imagined their own future in 15 years, their own future at age 85, or the average person's future at age 85. Younger adults were more optimistic than older adults about their own future in 15 years. In contrast, both age groups were similarly optimistic about their future at age 85 and expected it to be more positive than others' future at age 85. Contrary to previous research, younger and older adults had comparable future forecasts when projecting to the exact same age. These findings emphasize the need to consider age and stage of life when examining age differences in future optimism. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Targeting the latest hallmark of cancer: another attempt at 'magic bullet' drugs targeting cancers' metabolic phenotype.

PubMed

Cuperlovic-Culf, M; Culf, A S; Touaibia, M; Lefort, N

2012-10-01

The metabolism of tumors is remarkably different from the metabolism of corresponding normal cells and tissues. Metabolic alterations are initiated by oncogenes and are required for malignant transformation, allowing cancer cells to resist some cell death signals while producing energy and fulfilling their biosynthetic needs with limiting resources. The distinct metabolic phenotype of cancers provides an interesting avenue for treatment, potentially with minimal side effects. As many cancers show similar metabolic characteristics, drugs targeting the cancer metabolic phenotype are, perhaps optimistically, expected to be 'magic bullet' treatments. Over the last few years there have been a number of potential drugs developed to specifically target cancer metabolism. Several of these drugs are currently in clinical and preclinical trials. This review outlines examples of drugs developed for different targets of significance to cancer metabolism, with a focus on small molecule leads, chemical biology and clinical results for these drugs.

Stem cell tourism and doctors' duties to minors--a view from Canada.

PubMed

Zarzeczny, Amy; Caulfield, Timothy

2010-05-01

While the clinical promise of much stem cell research remains largely theoretical, patients are nonetheless pursuing unproven stem cell therapies in jurisdictions around the world--a phenomenon referred to as "stem cell tourism." These treatments are generally advertised on a direct-to-consumer basis via the Internet. Research shows portrayals of stem cell medicine on such websites are overly optimistic and the claims made are unsubstantiated by published evidence. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that parents are pursuing these "treatments" for their children, despite potential physical and financial risk. Physicians are in a unique position as they can be expected to be involved in, or privy to, such decisions. In this paper, we consider what duties physicians may have toward minor patients whose parents/guardians wish to engage in stem cell tourism on their behalf. We use the Canadian perspective to address the broadly relevant issues raised by this trend.

Strong lensing of gravitational waves as seen by LISA.

PubMed

Sereno, M; Sesana, A; Bleuler, A; Jetzer, Ph; Volonteri, M; Begelman, M C

2010-12-17

We discuss strong gravitational lensing of gravitational waves from the merging of massive black hole binaries in the context of the LISA mission. Detection of multiple events would provide invaluable information on competing theories of gravity, evolution and formation of structures and, possibly, constraints on H0 and other cosmological parameters. Most of the optical depth for lensing is provided by intervening massive galactic halos, for which wave optics effects are negligible. Probabilities to observe multiple events are sizable for a broad range of formation histories. For the most optimistic models, up to ≲ 4 multiple events with a signal to noise ratio ≳ 8 are expected in a 5-year mission. Chances are significant even for conservative models with either light (≲ 60%) or heavy (≲ 40%) seeds. Because of lensing amplification, some intrinsically too faint signals are brought over threshold (≲ 2 per year).

[Migration expectations among nursing students in Mexico City].

PubMed

Rosales-Martínez, Yetzi; Nigenda, Gustavo; Galárraga, Omar; Ruiz-Larios, José Arturo

2010-01-01

To analyze the factors associated with the expectations to migrate abroad among nursing students in Mexico City. A cross-sectional study was conducted with a non-random sample of 420 students. A logistic regression model was estimated. A total of 69% of the informants expressed their intention to move abroad, to look for employment (65%) and/or to continue their studies (26%). Of those, 50% would choose Canada as their destination, followed by Spain and the United States. The variables associated with migration expectations were: age, income, having relatives abroad, and perception of poor labor conditions and low wages in Mexico. Results are consistent with international literature. Low wages, poor labor conditions and the limited possibilities for professional development in Mexico are factors that contribute to generate migration expectations among nursing students. Additionally, optimistic perceptions about the job market and the labor demand in more developed countries heighten expectations to migrate.

College students' perceived risk of sexual victimization and the role of optimistic bias.

PubMed

Saling Untied, Amy; Dulaney, Cynthia L

2015-05-01

Many college women believe that their chances of experiencing a sexual assault are less than their peers. This phenomenon, called optimistic bias, has been hypothesized to be one important element to address in sexual assault risk reduction and awareness programs aimed at reducing women's chances of experiencing a sexual assault. The present study examined the role that participants' (N = 89) perceived similarity to a narrator (portraying a sexual assault survivor) describing an assault plays in reducing this bias. The age of the narrator was manipulated (similar or dissimilar to age of participants) with the aim of assessing whether the program could produce reductions in optimistic bias for those participants who watched a video of someone similar to them in age. A significant interaction between pre- and post-program and age similarity indicated a significant decrease in optimistic bias from pre- to posttest for the similar group. Furthermore, an exploratory analysis indicated optimistic bias for White participants decreased from pre- to posttest, whereas optimistic bias for the Black participants increased. These results suggest that some factors such as age similarity may reduce optimistic bias in sexual assault risk reduction and awareness programs. However, a race dissimilarity may increase optimistic bias. Thus, more research is needed to understand the factors that affect optimistic bias with regard to sexual assault awareness. © The Author(s) 2014.

Reconceptualizing Agency within the Life Course: The Power of Looking Ahead1

PubMed Central

Hitlin, Steven; Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick

2015-01-01

Empirical treatments of agency have not caught up with theoretical explication; empirical projects almost always focus on concurrent beliefs about one’s ability to act successfully without sufficiently attending to temporality. We suggest that understanding the modern life course necessitates a multidimensional understanding of subjective agency involving a) perceived capacities and b) perceived life-chances, or expectations about what life holds in store. We also suggest that a proper understanding of agency’s potential power within a life course necessitates moving beyond the domain-specific expectations more typical of past sociological work. Utilizing the Youth Development Study (YDS), we employ a scale of general life expectations in adolescence to explore the potential influence of a general sense of optimistic life-expectations in addition to the traditional agency-as-efficacy approach on a range of important outcomes. PMID:26166833

Black-hole production at LHC: Special features, problems, and expectations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savina, M. V., E-mail: savina@cern.ch

2011-03-15

A brief survey of the present-day status of the problem of multidimensional-black-hole production at accelerators according to models featuring large extra dimensions is given. The respective production cross section and the Hawking temperature and decay rate are estimated versus model parameters. Possible flaws and assumptions whose accurate inclusion can reduce significantly the probability of blackhole production at accelerators in relation to earlier optimistic estimates are also discussed.

Optimistic, pessimistic, realistic: Event-related potential evidence for how depressive symptoms influences expectation formation in the Human brain.

PubMed

Hsu, Yi-Fang; Vincent, Romain; Waszak, Florian

2015-08-27

Recent research suggested a link between the prediction mechanism and depressive symptoms. While healthy people tend to maintain unrealistic optimism in the face of reality challenging their beliefs, depressed people show systematic pessimism. However, it remains unclear at which stage these individual differences in optimism/pessimism arise in the brain. In the current study we designed a simple gambling task with two difficulty levels, the easy game and the hard game. Participants were required to press one of four keys to gain a bonus signalled by a sinusoidal tone. For three of the four keys, the probability of getting a large bonus was 80% in the easy game and 8% in the hard game. In both games, the fourth key, randomly determined in each trial, yielded a large bonus with a probability of 100%. This arrangement allowed us to observe less/more depressed participants׳ optimistic/pessimistic expectations about hitting the key that guarantees a large bonus. The opposite expectation patterns of less/more depressed participants were reflected on the N1 amplitude. Meanwhile, all participants were well aware of the true probability of obtaining certain bonus in each game as reflected on the P3 amplitude. The results suggest that the subjective system (tracking subjective beliefs) and the objective system (tracking objective evidence) are dissociable in the human brain, with the former feeding information into sensory areas and the latter representing prediction errors on a higher level. Moreover, individual differences arise from variability in the former rather than the latter. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prescription drug advertising, disease knowledge, and older adults' optimistic bias about the future risk of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Park, Jin Seong; Ju, Ilwoo

2016-01-01

This study aims to broaden the scope of knowledge on the role of direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising (DTCA) in the construction of consumers' optimistic bias regarding health issues and their intentions for coping actions. Based on an online survey of U.S. adults aged 65 years or older (N = 622), this study revealed that (a) respondents were optimistically biased in estimating their future risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD); (b) exposure to DTCA for AD medicine related negatively to optimistic bias when respondents had a low level of knowledge about AD, while the relationship disappeared when knowledge was high; (c) optimistic bias was negatively associated with intentions to seek information about AD and professional help to discuss it; and (d) optimistic bias mediated the relationship between the DTCA exposure × AD knowledge interaction and information- and help-seeking intentions. Implications for the theory and practice of DTCA are discussed.

MIQSTURE: An Experimental Online Language for Army Tactical Intelligence Information Processing

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-07-01

algorithms. The most critical component of an active information processing model for Army tactical intelligence is the user interface, which must be based on...1976)** defined some preliminary notions of an active information model centered around a data base that can introspect about its contents and...34An Introspective Data Base for an Active Information Model." OSI Technical Note N76-017, 17 November 1976 1-4 L4 beyond optimistic expectations and

Paradox in AI - AI 2.0: The Way to Machine Consciousness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palensky, Peter; Bruckner, Dietmar; Tmej, Anna; Deutsch, Tobias

Artificial Intelligence, the big promise of the last millennium, has apparently made its way into our daily lives. Cell phones with speech control, evolutionary computing in data mining or power grids, optimized via neural network, show its applicability in industrial environments. The original expectation of true intelligence and thinking machines lies still ahead of us. Researchers are, however, optimistic as never before. This paper tries to compare the views, challenges and approaches of several disciplines: engineering, psychology, neuroscience, philosophy. It gives a short introduction to Psychoanalysis, discusses the term consciousness, social implications of intelligent machines, related theories, and expectations and shall serve as a starting point for first attempts of combining these diverse thoughts.

Ocular gene transfer in the spotlight: implications of newspaper content for clinical communications

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Ocular gene transfer clinical trials are raising hopes for blindness treatments and attracting media attention. News media provide an accessible health information source for patients and the public, but are often criticized for overemphasizing benefits and underplaying risks of novel biomedical interventions. Overly optimistic portrayals of unproven interventions may influence public and patient expectations; the latter may cause patients to downplay risks and over-emphasize benefits, with implications for informed consent for clinical trials. We analyze the news media communications landscape about ocular gene transfer and make recommendations for improving communications between clinicians and potential trial participants in light of media coverage. Methods We analyzed leading newspaper articles about ocular gene transfer (1990-2012) from United States (n = 55), Canada (n = 26), and United Kingdom (n = 77) from Factiva and Canadian Newsstand databases using pre-defined coding categories. We evaluated the content of newspaper articles about ocular gene transfer for hereditary retinopathies, exploring representations of framing techniques, research design, risks/benefits, and translational timelines. Results The dominant frame in 61% of stories was a celebration of progress, followed by human-interest in 30% of stories. Missing from the positive frames were explanations of research design; articles conflated clinical research with treatment. Conflicts-of-interest and funding sources were similarly omitted. Attention was directed to the benefits of gene transfer, while risks were only reported in 43% of articles. A range of visual outcomes was described from slowing vision loss to cure, but the latter was the most frequently represented even though it is clinically infeasible. Despite the prominence of visual benefit portrayals, 87% of the articles failed to provide timelines for the commencement of clinical trials or for clinical implementation. Conclusions Our analysis confirms that despite many initiatives to improve media communications about experimental biotechnologies, media coverage remains overly optimistic and omits important information. In light of these findings, our recommendations focus on the need for clinicians account for media coverage in their communications with patients, especially in the context of clinical trial enrolment. The development of evidence-based communication strategies will facilitate informed consent and promote the ethical translation of this biotechnology. PMID:25027482

Reusable launch vehicle facts and fantasies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, Marshall H.

2002-01-01

Many people refuse to address many of the realities of reusable launch vehicle systems, technologies, operations and economics. Basic principles of physics, space flight operations, and business limitations are applied to the creation of a practical vision of future expectations. While reusable launcher concepts have been proposed for several decades, serious review of potential designs began in the mid-1990s, when NASA decided that a Space Shuttle replacement had to be pursued. A great deal of excitement and interest was quickly generated by the prospect of ``orders-of-magnitude'' reduction in launch costs. The potential for a vastly expanded space program motivated the entire space community. By the late-1990s, and after over one billion dollars were spent on the technology development and privately-funded concepts, it had become clear that there would be no new, near-term operational reusable vehicle. Many factors contributed to a very expensive and disappointing effort to create a new generation of launch vehicles. It began with overly optimistic projections of technology advancements and the belief that a greatly increased demand for satellite launches would be realized early in the 21st century. Contractors contributed to the perception of quickly reachable technology and business goals, thus, accelerating the enthusiasm and helping to create a ``gold rush'' euphoria. Cost, schedule and performance margins were all highly optimistic. Several entrepreneurs launched start up companies to take advantage of the excitement and the availability of investor capital. Millions were raised from private investors and venture capitalists, based on little more than flashy presentations and animations. Well over $500 million were raised by little-known start up groups to create reusable systems, which might complete for the coming market in launch services. By 1999, it was clear that market projections, made just two years earlier, were not going to be realized. Investors stopped funding the many private projects, and NASA grew weary of the lack of progress in its funded programs. The elements leading to the demise of NASA's X-33 and other programs are addressed, and lessons for the future offered. .

Ocular gene transfer in the spotlight: implications of newspaper content for clinical communications.

PubMed

Benjaminy, Shelly; Bubela, Tania

2014-07-16

Ocular gene transfer clinical trials are raising hopes for blindness treatments and attracting media attention. News media provide an accessible health information source for patients and the public, but are often criticized for overemphasizing benefits and underplaying risks of novel biomedical interventions. Overly optimistic portrayals of unproven interventions may influence public and patient expectations; the latter may cause patients to downplay risks and over-emphasize benefits, with implications for informed consent for clinical trials. We analyze the news media communications landscape about ocular gene transfer and make recommendations for improving communications between clinicians and potential trial participants in light of media coverage. We analyzed leading newspaper articles about ocular gene transfer (1990-2012) from United States (n = 55), Canada (n = 26), and United Kingdom (n = 77) from Factiva and Canadian Newsstand databases using pre-defined coding categories. We evaluated the content of newspaper articles about ocular gene transfer for hereditary retinopathies, exploring representations of framing techniques, research design, risks/benefits, and translational timelines. The dominant frame in 61% of stories was a celebration of progress, followed by human-interest in 30% of stories. Missing from the positive frames were explanations of research design; articles conflated clinical research with treatment. Conflicts-of-interest and funding sources were similarly omitted. Attention was directed to the benefits of gene transfer, while risks were only reported in 43% of articles. A range of visual outcomes was described from slowing vision loss to cure, but the latter was the most frequently represented even though it is clinically infeasible. Despite the prominence of visual benefit portrayals, 87% of the articles failed to provide timelines for the commencement of clinical trials or for clinical implementation. Our analysis confirms that despite many initiatives to improve media communications about experimental biotechnologies, media coverage remains overly optimistic and omits important information. In light of these findings, our recommendations focus on the need for clinicians account for media coverage in their communications with patients, especially in the context of clinical trial enrolment. The development of evidence-based communication strategies will facilitate informed consent and promote the ethical translation of this biotechnology.

School-College Collaboration and the Teaching of English: Deja Vu All over Again?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harris, Charles B.

1995-01-01

Traces the historically optimistic view of college-secondary school cooperation. Asks why such optimism has faded in recent years. Considers how college-level departments of English can collaborate with high school English programs, such as in collaborative conferences. (HB)

Optimists or realists? How ants allocate resources in making reproductive investments.

PubMed

Enzmann, Brittany L; Nonacs, Peter

2018-04-24

Parents often face an investment trade-off between either producing many small or fewer large offspring. When environments vary predictably, the fittest parental solution matches available resources by varying only number of offspring and never optimal individual size. However when mismatches occur often between parental expectations and true resource levels, dynamic models like multifaceted parental investment (MFPI) and parental optimism (PO) both predict offspring size can vary significantly. MFPI is a "realist" strategy: parents assume future environments of average richness. When resources exceed expectations and it is too late to add more offspring, the best-case solution increases investment per individual. Brood size distributions therefore track the degree of mismatch from right-skewed around an optimal size (slight underestimation of resources) to left-skewed around a maximal size (gross underestimation). Conversely, PO is an "optimist" strategy: parents assume maximally good resource futures and match numbers to that situation. Normal or lean years do not affect "core" brood as costs primarily fall on excess "marginal" siblings who die or experience stunted growth (producing left-skewed distributions). Investment patterns supportive of both MFPI and PO models have been observed in nature, but studies that directly manipulate food resources to test predictions are lacking. Ant colonies produce many offspring per reproductive cycle and are amenable to experimental manipulation in ways that can differentiate between MFPI and PO investment strategies. Colonies in a natural population of a harvester ant (Pogonomyrmex salinus) were protein-supplemented over 2 years, and mature sexual offspring were collected annually prior to their nuptial flight. Several results support either MFPI or PO in terms of patterns in offspring size distributions and how protein differentially affected male and female production. Unpredicted by either model, however, is that supplementation affected distributions more strongly across years than within (e.g., small females are significantly rarer in the year after colonies receive protein). Parental investment strategies in P. salinus vary dynamically across years and conditions. Finding that past conditions can more strongly affect reproductive decisions than current ones, however, is not addressed by models of parental investment. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

You Cannot Step Into the Same River Twice: When Power Analyses Are Optimistic.

PubMed

McShane, Blakeley B; Böckenholt, Ulf

2014-11-01

Statistical power depends on the size of the effect of interest. However, effect sizes are rarely fixed in psychological research: Study design choices, such as the operationalization of the dependent variable or the treatment manipulation, the social context, the subject pool, or the time of day, typically cause systematic variation in the effect size. Ignoring this between-study variation, as standard power formulae do, results in assessments of power that are too optimistic. Consequently, when researchers attempting replication set sample sizes using these formulae, their studies will be underpowered and will thus fail at a greater than expected rate. We illustrate this with both hypothetical examples and data on several well-studied phenomena in psychology. We provide formulae that account for between-study variation and suggest that researchers set sample sizes with respect to our generally more conservative formulae. Our formulae generalize to settings in which there are multiple effects of interest. We also introduce an easy-to-use website that implements our approach to setting sample sizes. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for quantifying between-study variation. © The Author(s) 2014.

Remote Sensing: A Film Review.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carter, David J.

1986-01-01

Reviews the content of 19 films on remote sensing published between 1973 and 1980. Concludes that they are overly simplistic, notably outdated, and generally too optimistic about the potential of remote sensing from space for resource exploration and environmental problem-solving. Provides names and addresses of more current remote sensing…

Hedge Funds and Asset Allocation: Investor Confidence, Diversification Benefits, and a Change in Investment Style Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessler, Wolfgang; Holler, Julian

Based on the belief that hedge funds are able to generate positive risk-adjusted returns (alpha) and diversification benefits in a portfolio context, many investors have included hedge funds in their asset allocation in order to optimize the risk-return trade-off of their investments. We provide evidence that more optimistic prior beliefs about expected risk-adjusted returns (alpha) lead to higher allocations into hedge funds. It appears, however, that history may not be the best guide for future fund performance and that the diversification benefits have declined over time. One reason for the lower risk-adjusted returns is a capacity effect in that previously exceptional hedge fund returns caused higher inflows to these funds and consequently a competition for alpha among investors. In our empirical analysis we provide additional evidence of other explanations for decreasing hedge fund benefits such as an increase in correlations with other asset classes and changes in the style composition of hedge funds.

Confidence of compliance: a Bayesian approach for percentile standards.

PubMed

McBride, G B; Ellis, J C

2001-04-01

Rules for assessing compliance with percentile standards commonly limit the number of exceedances permitted in a batch of samples taken over a defined assessment period. Such rules are commonly developed using classical statistical methods. Results from alternative Bayesian methods are presented (using beta-distributed prior information and a binomial likelihood), resulting in "confidence of compliance" graphs. These allow simple reading of the consumer's risk and the supplier's risks for any proposed rule. The influence of the prior assumptions required by the Bayesian technique on the confidence results is demonstrated, using two reference priors (uniform and Jeffreys') and also using optimistic and pessimistic user-defined priors. All four give less pessimistic results than does the classical technique, because interpreting classical results as "confidence of compliance" actually invokes a Bayesian approach with an extreme prior distribution. Jeffreys' prior is shown to be the most generally appropriate choice of prior distribution. Cost savings can be expected using rules based on this approach.

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

PubMed

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

Prescribers' expectations and barriers to electronic prescribing of controlled substances

PubMed Central

Kim, Meelee; McDonald, Ann; Kreiner, Peter; Kelleher, Stephen J; Blackman, Michael B; Kaufman, Peter N; Carrow, Grant M

2011-01-01

Objective To better understand barriers associated with the adoption and use of electronic prescribing of controlled substances (EPCS), a practice recently established by US Drug Enforcement Administration regulation. Materials and methods Prescribers of controlled substances affiliated with a regional health system were surveyed regarding current electronic prescribing (e-prescribing) activities, current prescribing of controlled substances, and expectations and barriers to the adoption of EPCS. Results 246 prescribers (response rate of 64%) represented a range of medical specialties, with 43.1% of these prescribers current users of e-prescribing for non-controlled substances. Reported issues with controlled substances included errors, pharmacy call-backs, and diversion; most prescribers expected EPCS to address many of these problems, specifically reduce medical errors, improve work flow and efficiency of practice, help identify prescription diversion or misuse, and improve patient treatment management. Prescribers expected, however, that it would be disruptive to practice, and over one-third of respondents reported that carrying a security authentication token at all times would be so burdensome as to discourage adoption. Discussion Although adoption of e-prescribing has been shown to dramatically reduce medication errors, challenges to efficient processes and errors still persist from the perspective of the prescriber, that may interfere with the adoption of EPCS. Most prescribers regarded EPCS security measures as a small or moderate inconvenience (other than carrying a security token), with advantages outweighing the burden. Conclusion Prescribers are optimistic about the potential for EPCS to improve practice, but view certain security measures as a burden and potential barrier. PMID:21946239

Are subjective memory problems related to suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance?

PubMed

Van Bergen, Saskia; Jelicic, Marko; Merckelbach, Harald

2009-01-01

The relationship between subjective memory beliefs and suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance was studied in a community sample of young and middle-aged people (N = 142). We hypothesized that people with subjective memory problems would exhibit higher suggestibility and compliance levels and would be more susceptible to false recollections than those who are optimistic about their memory. In addition, we expected a discrepancy between subjective memory judgments and objective memory performance. We found that subjective memory judgments correlated significantly with compliance, with more negative memory judgments accompanying higher levels of compliance. Contrary to our expectation, subjective memory problems did not correlate with suggestibility or false recollections. Furthermore, participants were accurate in estimating their objective memory performance.

Concerning Hunt's New Ways of Assessing Intelligence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belmont, John M.

1983-01-01

In an earlier article, Hunt envisions the automation of intelligence testing, but he appears to be overly optimistic. He neglects to mention conceptual and practical difficulties at the interface of measurement and theory that place psychometry not in the dawn of microcomputerization, but rather more nearly in its primordium. (Author)

Pollution Control and Public Jobs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manpower, 1974

1974-01-01

The findings of the 1972 Environmental Job Opportunities Survey indicate that the widely held view that environmental pollution control activities will generate large numbers of new jobs is overly optimistic. However the limitations of the survey are pointed out, with the suggestion that caution be applied in the interpreting its results. (SA)

Attachment Security Balances Perspectives: Effects of Security Priming on Highly Optimistic and Pessimistic Explanatory Styles.

PubMed

Deng, Yanhe; Yan, Mengge; Chen, Henry; Sun, Xin; Zhang, Peng; Zeng, Xianglong; Liu, Xiangping; Lye, Yue

2016-01-01

Highly optimistic explanatory style (HOES) and highly pessimistic explanatory style (HPES) are two maladaptive ways to explain the world and may have roots in attachment insecurity. The current study aims to explore the effects of security priming - activating supportive representations of attachment security - on ameliorating these maladaptive explanatory styles. 57 participants with HOES and 57 participants with HPES were randomized into security priming and control conditions. Their scores of overall optimistic attribution were measured before and after priming. Security priming had a moderating effect: the security primed HOES group exhibited lower optimistic attribution, while the security primed HPES group evinced higher scores of optimistic attribution. Furthermore, the security primed HOES group attributed positive outcomes more externally, while the security primed HPES group attributed successful results more internally. The results support the application of security priming interventions on maladaptive explanatory styles. Its potential mechanism and directions for future study are also discussed.

Expectations and experiences of investigators and parents involved in a clinical trial for Duchenne/Becker muscular dystrophy.

PubMed

Peay, Holly L; Tibben, Aad; Fisher, Tyler; Brenna, Ethan; Biesecker, Barbara B

2014-02-01

The social context of rare disease research is changing, with increased community engagement around drug development and clinical trials. This engagement may benefit patients and families but may also lead to heightened trial expectations and therapeutic misconception. Clinical investigators are also susceptible to harboring high expectations. Little is known about parental motivations and expectations for clinical trials for rare pediatric disorders. We describe the experience of parents and clinical investigators involved in a phase II clinical trial for Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy: their expectations, hopes, motivations, and reactions to the termination of the trial. This qualitative study was based on interviews with clinical investigators and parents of sons with Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy (DBMD) who participated in the phase IIa or IIb ataluren clinical trial in the United States. Interviews were transcribed and coded for thematic analysis. Participants were 12 parents of affected boys receiving active drug and 9 clinical investigators. High trial expectations of direct benefit were reported by parents and many clinicians. Investigators described monitoring and managing parents' expectations; several worried about their own involvement in increasing parents' expectations. Most parents were able to differentiate their expectations from their optimistic hopes for a cure. Parents' expectations arose from other parents, advocacy organizations, and the sponsor. All parents reported some degree of clinical benefit to their children. Secondary benefits were hopefulness and powerful feelings associated with active efforts to affect the disease course. Parents and clinical investigators reported strong, close relationships that were mutually important. Parents and clinicians felt valued by the sponsor for the majority of the trial. When the trial abruptly stopped, they described loss of engagement, distress, and feeling unprepared for the possibility of trial termination. This was a retrospective study of one clinical trial. We were unable to recruit participants whose children received placebo. The interviews occurred during a time of significant uncertainty and distress for many of the participants. This pilot study reflects complex outcomes of strong community engagement. The findings highlight a need for renewed education about, and support for, clinical trial termination and loss of drug access. The primary positive outcome was demonstration of strong relationships among committed parents and study teams. These relationships were highly valued by both parties and may suggest an ideal intervention opportunity for efforts to improve psychological well-being. A negative outcome attributed, in part, to community engagement was inappropriately high trial expectations. More optimistically, high expectations were attributed, in part, to the importance of hope and powerful feelings associated with active efforts to affect the disease course.

Expectations and experiences of investigators and parents involved in a clinical trial for Duchenne/Becker muscular dystrophy

PubMed Central

Peay, Holly L; Tibben, Aad; Fisher, Tyler; Brenna, Ethan; Biesecker, Barbara B

2014-01-01

Background The social context of rare disease research is changing, with increased community engagement around drug development and clinical trials. This engagement may benefit patients and families, but may also lead to heightened trial expectations and therapeutic misconception. Clinical investigators are also susceptible to harboring high expectations. Little is known about parental motivations and expectations for clinical trials for rare pediatric disorders. Purpose We describe the experience of parents and clinical investigators involved in a phase II clinical trial for Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy: their expectations, hopes, motivations, and reactions to the termination of the trial. Methods This qualitative study was based on interviews with clinical investigators and parents of sons with DBMD who participated in the phase IIa or IIb ataluren clinical trial in the United States. Interviews were transcribed and coded for thematic analysis. Results Participants were twelve parents of affected boys receiving active drug and nine clinical investigators. High trial expectations of direct benefit were reported by parents and many clinicians. Investigators described monitoring and managing parents’ expectations; several worried about their own involvement in increasing parents’ expectations. Most parents were able to differentiate their expectations from their optimistic hopes for a cure. Parents’ expectations arose from other parents, advocacy organizations, and the sponsor. All parents reported some degree of clinical benefit to their children. Secondary benefits were hopefulness and powerful feelings associated with active efforts to affect the disease course. Parents and clinical investigators reported strong, close relationships that were mutually important. Parents and clinicians felt valued by the sponsor for the majority of the trial. When the trial abruptly stopped, they described loss of engagement, distress, and feeling unprepared for the possibility of trial termination. Limitations This was a retrospective study of one clinical trial. We were unable to recruit participants whose children received placebo. The interviews occurred during a time of significant uncertainty and distress for many of the participants. Conclusions This pilot study reflects complex outcomes of strong community engagement. The findings highlight a need for renewed education about, and support for, clinical trial termination and loss of drug access. The primary positive outcome was demonstration of strong relationships among committed parents and study teams. These relationships were highly valued by both parties, and may suggest an ideal intervention opportunity for efforts to improve psychological wellbeing. A negative outcome attributed, in part, to community engagement was inappropriately high trial expectations. More optimistically, high expectations were attributed, in part, to the importance of hope and powerful feelings associated with active efforts to affect the disease course. PMID:24311736

Sample size calculations for randomized clinical trials published in anesthesiology journals: a comparison of 2010 versus 2016.

PubMed

Chow, Jeffrey T Y; Turkstra, Timothy P; Yim, Edmund; Jones, Philip M

2018-06-01

Although every randomized clinical trial (RCT) needs participants, determining the ideal number of participants that balances limited resources and the ability to detect a real effect is difficult. Focussing on two-arm, parallel group, superiority RCTs published in six general anesthesiology journals, the objective of this study was to compare the quality of sample size calculations for RCTs published in 2010 vs 2016. Each RCT's full text was searched for the presence of a sample size calculation, and the assumptions made by the investigators were compared with the actual values observed in the results. Analyses were only performed for sample size calculations that were amenable to replication, defined as using a clearly identified outcome that was continuous or binary in a standard sample size calculation procedure. The percentage of RCTs reporting all sample size calculation assumptions increased from 51% in 2010 to 84% in 2016. The difference between the values observed in the study and the expected values used for the sample size calculation for most RCTs was usually > 10% of the expected value, with negligible improvement from 2010 to 2016. While the reporting of sample size calculations improved from 2010 to 2016, the expected values in these sample size calculations often assumed effect sizes larger than those actually observed in the study. Since overly optimistic assumptions may systematically lead to underpowered RCTs, improvements in how to calculate and report sample sizes in anesthesiology research are needed.

Optimistic, Defensive-Pessimistic, Impulsive and Self-Handicapping Strategies in University Environments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eronen, Sanna; Nurmi, Jari-Erik; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

1998-01-01

A person-oriented approach was used to study the types of achievement strategy students apply in university environments and how these are associated with academic achievement, related satisfaction, and personal well-being. Results with 254 undergraduates over 2 years found academic achievement associated with 4 types of achievement strategy, each…

Direct-to-consumer antidepressant advertising and consumers' optimistic bias about the future risk of depression: the moderating role of advertising skepticism.

PubMed

Park, Jin Seong; Ju, Ilwoo; Kim, Kenneth Eunhan

2014-01-01

Although exposure to direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertising (DTCA) is reported to influence the public's beliefs about diseases, no research has investigated how DTCA may affect the extent of consumers' optimistic bias about the future risk of diseases. Based on a survey with members of an online consumer panel (n = 699), the current study revealed that: (a) Consumers exhibited a tendency to believe they were at less risk of developing clinical depression in the future than their peers, demonstrating an optimistic bias. (b) Exposure to antidepressant DTCA acted to reduce the extent of such bias, especially when consumers were less skeptical of prescription drug advertising. When consumers were highly skeptical, DTCA exposure did not significantly relate to the extent of optimistic bias. (c) Once formed, the extent of optimistic bias negatively related to consumers' intention to seek information about depression. Implications of the research for the theory and practice of DTCA were discussed.

The effect of proximity to hurricanes Katrina and Rita on subsequent hurricane outlook and optimistic bias.

PubMed

Trumbo, Craig; Lueck, Michelle; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori

2011-12-01

This study evaluated how individuals living on the Gulf Coast perceived hurricane risk after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. It was hypothesized that hurricane outlook and optimistic bias for hurricane risk would be associated positively with distance from the Katrina-Rita landfall (more optimism at greater distance), controlling for historically based hurricane risk and county population density, demographics, individual hurricane experience, and dispositional optimism. Data were collected in January 2006 through a mail survey sent to 1,375 households in 41 counties on the coast (n = 824, 60% response). The analysis used hierarchal regression to test hypotheses. Hurricane history and population density had no effect on outlook; individuals who were male, older, and with higher household incomes were associated with lower risk perception; individual hurricane experience and personal impacts from Katrina and Rita predicted greater risk perception; greater dispositional optimism predicted more optimistic outlook; distance had a small effect but predicted less optimistic outlook at greater distance (model R(2) = 0.21). The model for optimistic bias had fewer effects: age and community tenure were significant; dispositional optimism had a positive effect on optimistic bias; distance variables were not significant (model R(2) = 0.05). The study shows that an existing measure of hurricane outlook has utility, hurricane outlook appears to be a unique concept from hurricane optimistic bias, and proximity has at most small effects. Future extension of this research will include improved conceptualization and measurement of hurricane risk perception and will bring to focus several concepts involving risk communication. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Giant planet migration during FU Orionis outbursts: 1D disc models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunhill, A. C.

2018-05-01

I present the results of semi-analytic calculations of migrating planets in young, outbursting circumstellar discs. Formed far out in the disc via gravitational fragmentation early on in its lifetime, these planets typically migrate at very slow rates and are therefore mostly expected to remain at large radii (such as is the case in HR 8799). I show that changes in the disc structure during FUor outbursts affect the planet's ability to maintain a gap and can allow a massive giant planet's semimajor axis to reduce by almost 5 per cent in a single outburst under the most optimistic conditions. Given that a single disc will likely undergo ˜10 such outbursts this process can significantly alter the expected radial distribution for GI-formed planets.

People and ideas in medical informatics - a half century review.

PubMed

van Bemmel, J H

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE. Reviewing the onset and the rapid changes to make realistic predictions on the future of medical informatics. METHODS. Pointing to the contributions of the early pioneers, who had their roots in other disciplines and by illustrating that from the onset an interdisciplinary approach was characteristic for our field. RESULTS. Some of the reasons for the changes in medical informatics are that nobody was able to predict the advent of the personal computer in the 1970s, the world-wide web in 1991, and the public start of the Internet in 1992, but foremost that nobody expected that it was not primarily the hardware or the software, but human factors that would be crucial for successful applications of computers in health care. In the past sometimes unrealistic expectations were held, such as on the impact of medical decision-support systems, or on the overly optimistic contributions of electronic health records. Although the technology is widely available, some applications appear to be far more complex than expected. Health care processes can seldom be fully standardized. Humans enter at least in two very different roles in the loop of information processing: as subjects conducting care - the clinicians - and as subjects that are the objects of care - the patients. CONCLUSIONS. Medical informatics lacks a specific methodology; methods are borrowed from adjacent disciplines such as physics, mathematics and, of course, computer science. Human factors play a major role in applying computers in health care. Everyone pursuing a career in biomedical informatics needs to be very aware of this. It is to be expected that the quality of health care will increasingly be assessed by computer systems to fulfill the requirements of medical evidence.

Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters

PubMed Central

Love, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team’s prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve). PMID:26352146

Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters.

PubMed

Love, Bradley C; Kopeć, Łukasz; Guest, Olivia

2015-01-01

People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team's prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve).

KIPP and Teachers' Union Go Toe to Toe in Baltimore

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zehr, Mary Ann

2011-01-01

Leaders of the Knowledge Is Power Program (KIPP) charter schools are optimistic that they can reach a long-term agreement with the Baltimore (Maryland) Teachers Union in a nationally watched dispute over teacher pay for an extended school day, reducing the likelihood that the charter network will carry out its threat to close its two schools in…

2010 Translational bioinformatics year in review

PubMed Central

Miller, Katharine S

2011-01-01

A review of 2010 research in translational bioinformatics provides much to marvel at. We have seen notable advances in personal genomics, pharmacogenetics, and sequencing. At the same time, the infrastructure for the field has burgeoned. While acknowledging that, according to researchers, the members of this field tend to be overly optimistic, the authors predict a bright future. PMID:21672905

Louise Rosenblatt Seeks QtAznBoi@aol.com for LTR: Using Chat Rooms in Interdisciplinary Middle School Classrooms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albright, James; Purohit, Kiran; Walsh, Christopher

2002-01-01

Discusses online student-teacher interactions and notes how these encounters forced educators to think about the use of computer-mediated technologies. Reflects on both overly optimistic stances toward technology and stances that position the students as aliens and cyborgs. Examines the dynamic relationship that emerges as technologies, students,…

Response to Intervention: Ready or Not? Or, from Wait-to-Fail to Watch-Them-Fail

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Cecil R.; Shaywitz, Sally E.

2009-01-01

Response to Intervention (RTI) models of diagnosis and intervention are being implemented rapidly throughout the schools. The purposes of invoking an RTI model for disabilities in the schools clearly are laudable, yet close examination reveals an unappreciated paucity of empirical support for RTI and an overly optimistic view of its practical,…

Public Higher-Education Systems Face Painful Choices as Three Northeastern States Confront Massive Deficits.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blumenstyk, Goldie

1989-01-01

Massachusetts, Connecticut, and New York face giant deficits in their state budgets. The financial impact of the 1986 federal tax reform law was underestimated by colleges and income estimates were overly optimistic for 1988 and 1989. Unpopular, new taxes are seen as the way to solve the budget crunch. (MLW)

Treatment Expectation for Pain Coping Skills Training: Relationship to Osteoarthritis Patients' Baseline Psychosocial Characteristics

PubMed Central

Broderick, Joan E.; Junghaenel, Doerte U.; Schneider, Stefan; Bruckenthal, Patricia; Keefe, Francis J.

2010-01-01

Objectives This study examined predictors of treatment expectation among osteoarthritis (OA) patients in a multi-site clinical trial of pain coping strategies training (CST). Methods Patients (N=171) completed a pre-treatment assessment battery that asked questions about treatment expectations, pain coping variables, pain, physical function, psychological distress, quality of life, and depression as well as background demographic and medical variables. Results Regression analyses indicated that several variables accounted for 21% of the variance in treatment expectations (p < .0001). Patients who were classified as adaptive copers, reported higher self efficacy and social interaction, had higher quality of life, and who had lower levels of affective distress and depression had more positive expectations about engaging in pain coping skills training. Variables that were not associated with treatment expectation were level of pain and physical dysfunction, duration of disease, and disability status as well as demographic variables. Discussion Thus, while many OA patients will approach pain coping skills training with positive expectations, others have lower expectations. This study suggests that a multidimensional assessment of OA patients with chronic pain can identify those who have higher expectations versus lower expectations. The results suggest that patients who are psychologically distressed are less optimistic about engaging in treatment and that these patients, in particular, may benefit from and need pre-treatment motivational interviewing to enhance their uptake of pain coping skills PMID:21178591

Epidemiology and prognosis of coma in daytime television dramas

PubMed Central

Casarett, David; Fishman, Jessica M; MacMoran, Holly Jo; Pickard, Amy; Asch, David A

2005-01-01

Objective To determine how soap operas portray, and possibly misrepresent, the likelihood of recovery for patients in coma. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Nine soap operas in the United States reviewed between 1 January 1995 and 15 May 2005. Subjects 64 characters who experienced a period of unconsciousness lasting at least 24 hours. Their final status at the end of the follow-up period was compared with pooled data from a meta-analysis. Results Comas lasted a median of 13 days (interquartile range 7-25 days). Fifty seven (89%) patients recovered fully, five (8%) died, and two (3%) remained in a vegetative state. Mortality for non-traumatic and traumatic coma was significantly lower than would be predicted from the meta-analysis data (non-traumatic 4% v 53%; traumatic 6% v 67%; Fisher's exact test both P < 0.001). On the day that patients regained consciousness, most (49/57; 86%) had no evidence of limited function, cognitive deficit, or residual disability needing rehabilitation. Compared with meta-analysis data, patients in this sample had a much better than expected chance of returning to normal function (non-traumatic 91% v 1%; traumatic 89% v 7%; both P < 0.001). Conclusions The portrayal of coma in soap operas is overly optimistic. Although these programmes are presented as fiction, they may contribute to unrealistic expectations of recovery. PMID:16373744

Salt marsh persistence is threatened by predicted sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Sarah C.; Sax, Dov F.; Palmer, Megan E.; Booth, Harriet S.; Deegan, Linda A.; Bertness, Mark D.; Leslie, Heather M.

2016-11-01

Salt marshes buffer coastlines and provide critical ecosystem services from storm protection to food provision. Worldwide, these ecosystems are in danger of disappearing if they cannot increase elevation at rates that match sea-level rise. However, the magnitude of loss to be expected is not known. A synthesis of existing records of salt marsh elevation change was conducted in order to consider the likelihood of their future persistence. This analysis indicates that many salt marshes did not keep pace with sea-level rise in the past century and kept pace even less well over the past two decades. Salt marshes experiencing higher local sea-level rise rates were less likely to be keeping pace. These results suggest that sea-level rise will overwhelm most salt marshes' capacity to maintain elevation. Under the most optimistic IPCC emissions pathway, 60% of the salt marshes studied will be gaining elevation at a rate insufficient to keep pace with sea-level rise by 2100. Without mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions this potential loss could exceed 90%, which will have substantial ecological, economic, and human health consequences.

Beyond Positive Psychology?

PubMed Central

McNulty, James K.; Fincham, Frank D.

2014-01-01

The field of positive psychology rests on the assumption that certain psychological traits and processes are inherently beneficial for well-being. We review evidence that challenges this assumption. First, we review data from 4 independent longitudinal studies of marriage revealing that 4 ostensibly positive processes—forgiveness, optimistic expectations, positive thoughts, and kindness—can either benefit or harm well-being depending on the context in which they operate. Although all 4 processes predicted better relationship well-being among spouses in healthy marriages, they predicted worse relationship well-being in more troubled marriages. Then, we review evidence from other research that reveals that whether ostensibly positive psychological traits and processes benefit or harm well-being depends on the context of various noninterpersonal domains as well. Finally, we conclude by arguing that any movement to promote well-being may be most successful to the extent that it (a) examines the conditions under which the same traits and processes may promote versus threaten well-being, (b) examines both healthy and unhealthy people, (c) examines well-being over substantial periods of time, and (d) avoids labeling psychological traits and processes as positive or negative. PMID:21787036

"Watching time tick by…": Decision making for Duchenne muscular dystrophy trials.

PubMed

Peay, Holly L; Scharff, Hadar; Tibben, Aad; Wilfond, Benjamin; Bowie, Janice; Johnson, Joanna; Nagaraju, Kanneboyina; Escolar, Diana; Piacentino, Jonathan; Biesecker, Barbara B

2016-01-01

This interview study explored clinicians' perspectives and parents' decision making about children's participation in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) clinical trials. Data from semi-structured interviews conducted with clinicians and parents in U.S. or Canada were assessed using thematic analysis. Eleven clinicians involved in ten trials and fifteen parents involved in six trials were interviewed. Parents described benefit-risk assessments using information from advocacy, peers, professionals, and sponsors. Strong influence was attributed to the progressive nature of DMD. Most expected direct benefit. Few considered the possibility of trial failure. Most made decisions to participate before the informed consent (IC) process, but none-the-less perceived informed choice with little to lose for potential gain. Clinicians described more influence on parental decisions than attributed by parents. Clinicians felt responsible to facilitate IC while maintaining hope. Both clinicians and parents reported criticisms about the IC process and regulatory barriers. The majority of parents described undertaking benefit-risk assessments that led to informed choices that offered psychological and potential disease benefits. Parents' high expectations influenced their decisions while also reflecting optimism. Clinicians felt challenged in balancing parents' expectations and likely outcomes. Prognosis-related pressures coupled with decision making prior to IC suggest an obligation to ensure educational materials are understandable and accurate, and to consider an expanded notion of IC timeframes. Anticipatory guidance about potential trial failure might facilitate parents' deliberations while aiding clinicians in moderating overly-optimistic motivations. Regulators and industry should appreciate special challenges in progressive disorders, where doing nothing was equated with doing harm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The complicated 'Yes': Decision-making processes and receptivity to lung cancer screening among head and neck cancer survivors.

PubMed

Seaman, Aaron T; Dukes, Kimberly; Hoffman, Richard M; Christensen, Alan J; Kendell, Nicholas; Sussman, Andrew L; Veléz-Bermúdez, Miriam; Volk, Robert J; Pagedar, Nitin A

2018-04-22

Shared decision making (SDM) is recommended when offering lung cancer screening (LCS)-which presents challenges with tobacco-related cancer survivors because they were excluded from clinical trials. Our objective was to characterize head and neck cancer (HNC) survivors' knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs toward LCS and SDM. Between November 2017 and June 2018, we conducted semi-structured qualitative interviews with 19 HNC survivors, focusing on patients' cancer and smoking history, receptivity to and perceptions of LCS, and decision-making preferences RESULTS: Participants were receptive to LCS, referencing their successful HNC outcomes. They perceived that LCS might reduce uncertainty and emphasized the potential benefits of early diagnosis. Some expressed concern over costs or overdiagnosis, but most minimized potential harms, including false positives and radiation exposure. Participants preferred in-person LCS discussions, often ideally with their cancer specialist. HNC survivors may have overly optimistic expectations for LCS, and clinicians need to account for this in SDM discussions. Supporting these patients in making informed decisions will be challenging because we lack clinical data on the potential benefits and harms of LCS for cancer survivors. While some patients prefer discussing LCS with their cancer specialists, the ability of specialists to support high-quality decision making is uncertain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expected neutrino fluence from short Gamma-Ray Burst 170817A and off-axis angle constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biehl, D.; Heinze, J.; Winter, W.

2018-05-01

We compute the expected neutrino fluence from SGRB 170817A, associated with the gravitational wave event GW 170817, directly based on Fermi observations in two scenarios: structured jet and off-axis (observed) top-hat jet. While the expected neutrino fluence for the structured jet case is very small, large off-axis angles imply high radiation densities in the jet, which can enhance the neutrino production efficiency. In the most optimistic allowed scenario, the neutrino fluence can reach only 10-4 of the sensitivity of the neutrino telescopes. We furthermore demonstrate that the fact that gamma-rays can escape limits the baryonic loading (energy in protons versus photons) and the off-axis angle for the internal shock scenario. In particular, for a baryonic loading of 10, the off-axis angle is more strongly constrained by the baryonic loading than by the time delay between the gravitational wave event and the onset of the gamma-ray emission.

It's only a dream if you wake up: Young adults' achievement expectations, opportunities, and meritocratic beliefs.

PubMed

Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

2017-02-01

The present paper examines university graduates' beliefs about how meritocratic socioeconomic status (SES) attainment in U.S. society is for themselves (merit agency beliefs) and for most other people (merit societal beliefs), and how these distinct beliefs are differentially associated with labour market experiences and achievement-goal attitudes and expectations in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Data from a 10-month longitudinal study of 217 graduates from the 2013 class of a large public U.S. university were analysed using multilevel modelling. The results indicate that most participants optimistically expected to attain upward social mobility. Furthermore, participants' merit agency beliefs were reflective of their labour market prospects and experiences, and calibrated their achievement-goal attitudes and expectations. However, participants' merit societal beliefs were not associated with these labour market experiences and achievement-goal attitudes and expectations. The distinction between merit agency beliefs and merit societal beliefs may be motivationally beneficial by allowing individuals to continue striving toward the uncertain long-term goal pursuit of upward social mobility despite the short-term struggles and setbacks many young adults are likely to experience in the aftermath of the Great Recession. © 2017 International Union of Psychological Science.

Seeking Defense Efficiency

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-01

improving defense management requires decentralizing the pursuit of efficiency on a framework of strategic planning, cost accounting , and performance...Office (GAO) report (1999) questions whether assumed sav- ings figures may be overly optimistic in not sufficiently accounting for the costs of...inputs�.� money and personnel spaces from opera- tions and maintenance (O&M) budget lines? Without better systems to account for costs and to measure

Tell Me a Story I'll Never Forget or Deconstructing Traditional Narrative Plot/Myths To Challenge the Ethics of Conflict.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prentice, Penelope

In recent years some exceptionally optimistic writings by feminist scholars have addressed a shift away from the male manque model of femininity to one celebrating feminine growth. Archetypal myths have inculcated people's minds with the notion that domination and conquest serve to justify men's domination over the feminine. Narrative communicates…

Evaluation of a proposal to set a goal for the Virginia strategic highway safety plan of a forty percent reduction in traffic fatalities and injuries by 2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether a 40% reduction in traffic fatalities and injuries by 2010 is a reasonable goal to include in Virginia's state-level strategic highway safety plan or whether such a goal is overly optimistic. To achi...

Discrete Event Modeling and Massively Parallel Execution of Epidemic Outbreak Phenomena

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2011-01-01

In complex phenomena such as epidemiological outbreaks, the intensity of inherent feedback effects and the significant role of transients in the dynamics make simulation the only effective method for proactive, reactive or post-facto analysis. The spatial scale, runtime speed, and behavioral detail needed in detailed simulations of epidemic outbreaks make it necessary to use large-scale parallel processing. Here, an optimistic parallel execution of a new discrete event formulation of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic propagation is presented to facilitate in dramatically increasing the fidelity and speed by which epidemiological simulations can be performed. Rollback support needed during optimistic parallelmore » execution is achieved by combining reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup of over 5,500 and other runtime performance metrics of the system are observed with weak-scaling execution on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability with a weak-scaling speedup of over 10,000 is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes exceeding several hundreds of millions of individuals in the largest cases are successfully exercised to verify model scalability.« less

Undermining optimistic denial reactions to domestic and campus emergency warning messages.

PubMed

Thompson, Suzanne C; Schlehofer, Michele M

2014-07-01

Individuals who prepare for public emergencies can mitigate the effects of an incident, but denial of personal susceptibility may reduce the likelihood of preparation. Some denial may be due to a positive self-image that is at odds with being "at risk". The potential for an enhanced warning message that included a positive image of a protector to circumvent this denial was tested in two studies. Optimistic denial threat orientation was measured. Then participants received either a traditional or a positive protector warning message about terrorism (Study 1; nationally representative sample of US adults; N = 587) or campus emergency preparation (Study 2; US college students; N = 179). As predicted, in the enhanced image condition optimistic denial was no longer related to stronger denial reactions and lower intentions to protect oneself. In addition, Study 2 tested explanatory mediators and found that negative perceptions of and low similarity to a protector partially explained the denial of those higher in optimistic denial and why their denial was dampened in the positive image condition. An enhanced message including a positive image of protector may be an effective way to encourage protection for those prone to optimistic denial. © 2014 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Nonblocking and orphan free message logging protocols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvisi, Lorenzo; Hoppe, Bruce; Marzullo, Keith

1992-01-01

Currently existing message logging protocols demonstrate a classic pessimistic vs. optimistic tradeoff. We show that the optimistic-pessimistic tradeoff is not inherent to the problem of message logging. We construct a message-logging protocol that has the positive features of both optimistic and pessimistic protocol: our protocol prevents orphans and allows simple failure recovery; however, it requires no blocking in failure-free runs. Furthermore, this protocol does not introduce any additional message overhead as compared to one implemented for a system in which messages may be lost but processes do not crash.

Nonblocking and orphan free message logging protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvisi, Lorenzo; Hoppe, Bruce; Marzullo, Keith

1992-12-01

Currently existing message logging protocols demonstrate a classic pessimistic vs. optimistic tradeoff. We show that the optimistic-pessimistic tradeoff is not inherent to the problem of message logging. We construct a message-logging protocol that has the positive features of both optimistic and pessimistic protocol: our protocol prevents orphans and allows simple failure recovery; however, it requires no blocking in failure-free runs. Furthermore, this protocol does not introduce any additional message overhead as compared to one implemented for a system in which messages may be lost but processes do not crash.

Optimistic and pessimistic self-assessment of own diets is associated with age, self-rated health and weight status in Danish adults.

PubMed

Sørensen, Mette Rosenlund; Matthiessen, Jeppe; Holm, Lotte; Knudsen, Vibeke Kildegaard; Andersen, Elisabeth Wreford; Tetens, Inge

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to analyse concordance between Danish adults' recorded diet quality and their own assessment of the healthiness and to examine socio-demographic, health and behavioural characteristics associated with an optimistic or pessimistic self-assessment. Data were derived from The Danish National Survey of Diet and Physical Activity 2011-2013 and included a random sample of 3014 adults (18-75 y). Diet quality was evaluated on the basis of seven-day pre-coded food diaries and categorised 'unhealthy', 'somewhat healthy' and 'healthy'. Self-assessment of the healthiness of own diets was registered via personal interviews and categorised healthy enough 'to a high degree', 'to some degree' or 'not at all/only partly'. Highly and somewhat optimistic self-assessment, respectively, were defined as assessing own diets as healthy enough to a high degree or to some degree while having unhealthy diets. Highly and somewhat pessimistic self-assessment, respectively, were defined as assessing own diets as not healthy enough or healthy enough to some degree while having healthy diets. Multiple logistic regression models were used to examine characteristics associated with optimistic and pessimistic self-assessments, respectively. Among individuals with unhealthy diets, 13% were highly optimistic and 42% somewhat optimistic about the healthiness of their diets. Among individuals with healthy diets, 14% were highly pessimistic and 51% somewhat pessimistic about the healthiness of their diets. Highly optimistic self-assessment was associated with increasing age, excellent self-rated health, normal weight and a moderate activity level. Highly pessimistic self-assessment was associated with decreasing age, good self-rated health and being obese. The findings indicate that people seem to use personal health characteristics as important references when assessing the healthiness of their diets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the resilience of Bt cotton's "pro-poor success story".

PubMed

Glover, Dominic

2010-01-01

Expectations play a powerful role in driving technological change. Expectations are often encapsulated in narratives of technological promise that emphasize potential benefits and downplay potential negative impacts. Genetically modified (GM, transgenic) crops have been framed by expectations that they would be an intrinsically "pro-poor" innovation that would contribute powerfully to international agricultural development. However, expectations typically have to be scaled back in the light of experience. Published reviews of the socio-economic impacts of GM crops among poor, small-scale farmers in the developing world indicate that these effects have been very mixed and contingent on the agronomic, socio-economic and institutional settings where the technology has been applied. These conclusions should modulate expectations about the pro-poor potential of GM crop technology and focus attention on the conditions under which it might deliver substantial and sustainable benefits for poor farmers. However, the idea of GM crop technology as an intrinsically pro-poor developmental success story has been sustained in academic, public and policy arenas. This narrative depends upon an analysis that disembeds the technology from the technical, social and institutional contexts in which it is applied. Agricultural development policy should be based on a more rigorous and dispassionate analysis, rather than optimistic expectations alone.

The association between resting functional connectivity and dispositional optimism.

PubMed

Ran, Qian; Yang, Junyi; Yang, Wenjing; Wei, Dongtao; Qiu, Jiang; Zhang, Dong

2017-01-01

Dispositional optimism is an individual characteristic that plays an important role in human experience. Optimists are people who tend to hold positive expectations for their future. Previous studies have focused on the neural basis of optimism, such as task response neural activity and brain structure volume. However, the functional connectivity between brain regions of the dispositional optimists are poorly understood. Previous study suggested that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are associated with individual differences in dispositional optimism, but it is unclear whether there are other brain regions that combine with the vmPFC to contribute to dispositional optimism. Thus, the present study used the resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) approach and set the vmPFC as the seed region to examine if differences in functional brain connectivity between the vmPFC and other brain regions would be associated with individual differences in dispositional optimism. The results found that dispositional optimism was significantly positively correlated with the strength of the RSFC between vmPFC and middle temporal gyrus (mTG) and negativly correlated with RSFC between vmPFC and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). These findings may be suggested that mTG and IFG which associated with emotion processes and emotion regulation also play an important role in the dispositional optimism.

The association between resting functional connectivity and dispositional optimism

PubMed Central

Yang, Wenjing; Wei, Dongtao; Qiu, Jiang; Zhang, Dong

2017-01-01

Dispositional optimism is an individual characteristic that plays an important role in human experience. Optimists are people who tend to hold positive expectations for their future. Previous studies have focused on the neural basis of optimism, such as task response neural activity and brain structure volume. However, the functional connectivity between brain regions of the dispositional optimists are poorly understood. Previous study suggested that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are associated with individual differences in dispositional optimism, but it is unclear whether there are other brain regions that combine with the vmPFC to contribute to dispositional optimism. Thus, the present study used the resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) approach and set the vmPFC as the seed region to examine if differences in functional brain connectivity between the vmPFC and other brain regions would be associated with individual differences in dispositional optimism. The results found that dispositional optimism was significantly positively correlated with the strength of the RSFC between vmPFC and middle temporal gyrus (mTG) and negativly correlated with RSFC between vmPFC and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). These findings may be suggested that mTG and IFG which associated with emotion processes and emotion regulation also play an important role in the dispositional optimism. PMID:28700613

Pessimistic orientation in relation to telomere length in older men: the VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Ikeda, Ai; Schwartz, Joel; Peters, Junenette L.; Baccarelli, Andrea A.; Hoxha, Mirjam; Dioni, Laura; Spiro, Avron; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Kubzansky, Laura D.

2014-01-01

Background Recent research suggests pessimistic orientation is associated with shorter leukocyte telomere length (LTL). However, this is the first study to look not only at effects of pessimistic orientation on average LTL at multiple time points, but also at effects on the rate of change in LTL over time. Methods Participants were older men from the VA Normative Aging Study (n=490). The Life Orientation Test (LOT) was used to measure optimistic and pessimistic orientations at study baseline, and relative LTL by telomere to single copy gene ratio (T:S ratio) was obtained repeatedly over the course of the study (1999-2008). A total of 1,010 observations were included in the analysis. Linear mixed effect models with a random subject intercept were used to estimate associations. Results Higher pessimistic orientation scores were associated with shorter average LTL (percent difference by 1-SD increase in pessimistic orientation (95% CI): -3.08 (-5.62, -0.46)), and the finding was maintained after adjusting for the higher likelihood that healthier individuals return for follow-up visits (-3.44 (-5.95,-0.86)). However, pessimistic orientation scores were not associated with rate of change in LTL over time. No associations were found between overall optimism and optimistic orientation subscale scores and LTL. Conclusion Higher pessimistic orientation scores were associated with shorter LTL in older men. While there was no evidence that pessimistic orientation was associated with rate of change in LTL over time, higher levels of pessimistic orientation were associated with shorter LTL at baseline and this association persisted over time. PMID:24636503

Measuring neutron-star properties via gravitational waves from neutron-star mergers.

PubMed

Bauswein, A; Janka, H-T

2012-01-06

We demonstrate by a large set of merger simulations for symmetric binary neutron stars (NSs) that there is a tight correlation between the frequency peak of the postmerger gravitational-wave (GW) emission and the physical properties of the nuclear equation of state (EoS), e.g., expressed by the radius of the maximum-mass Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkhoff configuration. Therefore, a single measurement of the peak frequency of the postmerger GW signal will constrain the NS EoS significantly. For optimistic merger-rate estimates a corresponding detection with Advanced LIGO is expected to happen within an operation time of roughly a year.

Synchronization Of Parallel Discrete Event Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinman, Jeffrey S.

1992-01-01

Adaptive, parallel, discrete-event-simulation-synchronization algorithm, Breathing Time Buckets, developed in Synchronous Parallel Environment for Emulation and Discrete Event Simulation (SPEEDES) operating system. Algorithm allows parallel simulations to process events optimistically in fluctuating time cycles that naturally adapt while simulation in progress. Combines best of optimistic and conservative synchronization strategies while avoiding major disadvantages. Algorithm processes events optimistically in time cycles adapting while simulation in progress. Well suited for modeling communication networks, for large-scale war games, for simulated flights of aircraft, for simulations of computer equipment, for mathematical modeling, for interactive engineering simulations, and for depictions of flows of information.

Optimistic Bias, Risk Factors, and Development of High Blood Pressure and Obesity among African American Adolescents in Mississippi (USA)

PubMed Central

White, Monique S.; Addison, Clifton C.; Campbell Jenkins, Brenda W.; Bland, Vanessa; Clark, Adrianne; Antoine LaVigne, Donna

2017-01-01

Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions and is linked to hypertension among African American youth. Optimistic bias influences behavior of youth causing them to underestimate their susceptibility to negative health outcomes. This study explored adolescent behaviors and prevalence of high blood pressure and obesity in a school district. We examined the relationship between individual health risk practices and optimistic bias on health outcomes; 433 African American high school students were administered a survey and had their obesity and blood pressure measured by the school nurse. Canonical correlational analyses were used to examine relationships between health risk practices and descriptive statistics for optimistic bias and health outcomes. Engaging in moderate exercise for at least 30 min in the last 7 days and lower blood pressure was the only statistically significant relationship. Two-thirds of the students did not perceive themselves to be at risk of developing cardiovascular disease with males at greater risk than females, despite the presence of clinical risk factors for hypertension and obesity. Reducing health optimistic bias is an effective way of motivating young people to adopt more positive behaviors using educational institutions to implement intervention programs that promote positive health behavior as a way to reduce health disparities. PMID:28230728

Optimistic Bias, Risk Factors, and Development of High Blood Pressure and Obesity among African American Adolescents in Mississippi (USA).

PubMed

White, Monique S; Addison, Clifton C; Jenkins, Brenda W Campbell; Bland, Vanessa; Clark, Adrianne; LaVigne, Donna Antoine

2017-02-20

Childhood obesity has reached epidemic proportions and is linked to hypertension among African American youth. Optimistic bias influences behavior of youth causing them to underestimate their susceptibility to negative health outcomes. This study explored adolescent behaviors and prevalence of high blood pressure and obesity in a school district. We examined the relationship between individual health risk practices and optimistic bias on health outcomes; 433 African American high school students were administered a survey and had their obesity and blood pressure measured by the school nurse. Canonical correlational analyses were used to examine relationships between health risk practices and descriptive statistics for optimistic bias and health outcomes. Engaging in moderate exercise for at least 30 min in the last 7 days and lower blood pressure was the only statistically significant relationship. Two-thirds of the students did not perceive themselves to be at risk of developing cardiovascular disease with males at greater risk than females, despite the presence of clinical risk factors for hypertension and obesity. Reducing health optimistic bias is an effective way of motivating young people to adopt more positive behaviors using educational institutions to implement intervention programs that promote positive health behavior as a way to reduce health disparities.

Media reporting of neuroscience depends on timing, topic and newspaper type.

PubMed

van Atteveldt, Nienke M; van Aalderen-Smeets, Sandra I; Jacobi, Carina; Ruigrok, Nel

2014-01-01

The rapid developments in neuroscientific techniques raise high expectations among the general public and therefore warrant close monitoring of the translation to the media and daily-life applications. The need of empirical research into neuroscience communication is emphasized by its susceptibility to evoke misconceptions and polarized beliefs. As the mass media are the main sources of information about (neuro-)science for a majority of the general public, the objective of the current research is to quantify how critically and accurately newspapers report on neuroscience as a function of the timing of publication (within or outside of periods of heightened media attention to neuroscience, termed "news waves"), the topic of the research (e.g. development, health, law) and the newspaper type (quality, popular, free newspapers). The results show that articles published during neuroscience news waves were less neutral and more optimistic, but not different in accuracy. Furthermore, the overall tone and accuracy of articles depended on the topic; for example, articles on development often had an optimistic tone whereas articles on law were often skeptical or balanced, and articles on health care had highest accuracy. Average accuracy was rather low, but articles in quality newspapers were relatively more accurate than in popular and free newspapers. Our results provide specific recommendations for researchers and science communicators, to improve the translation of neuroscience findings through the media: 1) Caution is warranted during periods of heightened attention (news waves), as reporting tends to be more optimistic; 2) Caution is also warranted not to follow topic-related biases in optimism (e.g., development) or skepticism (e.g., law); 3) Researchers should keep in mind that overall accuracy of reporting is low, and especially articles in popular and free newspapers provide a minimal amount of details. This indicates that researchers themselves may need to be more active in preventing misconceptions to arise.

Media Reporting of Neuroscience Depends on Timing, Topic and Newspaper Type

PubMed Central

van Atteveldt, Nienke M.; van Aalderen-Smeets, Sandra I.; Jacobi, Carina; Ruigrok, Nel

2014-01-01

The rapid developments in neuroscientific techniques raise high expectations among the general public and therefore warrant close monitoring of the translation to the media and daily-life applications. The need of empirical research into neuroscience communication is emphasized by its susceptibility to evoke misconceptions and polarized beliefs. As the mass media are the main sources of information about (neuro-)science for a majority of the general public, the objective of the current research is to quantify how critically and accurately newspapers report on neuroscience as a function of the timing of publication (within or outside of periods of heightened media attention to neuroscience, termed “news waves”), the topic of the research (e.g. development, health, law) and the newspaper type (quality, popular, free newspapers). The results show that articles published during neuroscience news waves were less neutral and more optimistic, but not different in accuracy. Furthermore, the overall tone and accuracy of articles depended on the topic; for example, articles on development often had an optimistic tone whereas articles on law were often skeptical or balanced, and articles on health care had highest accuracy. Average accuracy was rather low, but articles in quality newspapers were relatively more accurate than in popular and free newspapers. Our results provide specific recommendations for researchers and science communicators, to improve the translation of neuroscience findings through the media: 1) Caution is warranted during periods of heightened attention (news waves), as reporting tends to be more optimistic; 2) Caution is also warranted not to follow topic-related biases in optimism (e.g., development) or skepticism (e.g., law); 3) Researchers should keep in mind that overall accuracy of reporting is low, and especially articles in popular and free newspapers provide a minimal amount of details. This indicates that researchers themselves may need to be more active in preventing misconceptions to arise. PMID:25117741

Indicators of sailing performance in youth dinghy sailing.

PubMed

Callewaert, Margot; Boone, Jan; Celie, Bert; De Clercq, Dirk; Bourgois, Jan G

2015-01-01

This study aimed to determine indicators of sailing performance in 2 (age) groups of youth sailors by investigating the anthropometric, physical and motor coordination differences and factors discriminating between elite and non-elite male optimist sailors and young dynamic hikers. Anthropometric measurements from 23 optimist sailors (mean ± SD age = 12.3 ± 1.4 years) and 24 dynamic youth hikers (i.e. Laser 4.7, Laser radial and Europe sailors <18 years who have to sail the boat in a very dynamic manner, due to a high sailor to yacht weight ratio) (mean ± SD age = 16.5 ± 1.6 years) were conducted. They performed a physical fitness test battery (EUROFIT), motor coordination test battery (Körperkoordinationstest für Kinder) and the Bucket test. Both groups of sailors were divided into two subgroups (i.e. elites and non-elites) based on sailing expertise. The significant differences, taking biological maturation into account and factors discriminating between elite and non-elite optimist sailors and dynamic hikers were explored by means of multivariate analysis of covariance and discriminant analysis, respectively. The main results indicated that 100.0% of elite optimist sailors and 88.9% of elite dynamic hikers could be correctly classified by means of two motor coordination tests (i.e. side step and side jump) and Bucket test, respectively. As such, strength- and speed-oriented motor coordination and isometric knee-extension strength endurance can be identified as indicators of sailing performance in young optimist and dynamic youth sailors, respectively. Therefore, we emphasise the importance of motor coordination skill training in optimist sailors (<15 years) and maximum strength training later on (>15 years) in order to increase their isometric knee-extension strength endurance.

Stakeholder Perspectives on the Optimizing Patient Transfers, Impacting Medical Quality, and Improving Symptoms: Transforming Institutional Care (OPTIMISTIC) Project.

PubMed

Ersek, Mary; Hickman, Susan E; Thomas, Anne C; Bernard, Brittany; Unroe, Kathleen T

2017-10-17

The need to reduce burdensome and costly hospitalizations of frail nursing home residents is well documented. The Optimizing Patient Transfers, Impacting Medical Quality, and Improving Symptoms: Transforming Institutional Care (OPTIMISTIC) project achieved this reduction through a multicomponent collaborative care model. We conducted an implementation-focused project evaluation to describe stakeholders' perspectives on (a) the most and least effective components of the intervention; (b) barriers to implementation; and (c) program features that promoted its adoption. Nineteen nursing homes participated in OPTIMISTIC. We conducted semistructured, qualitative interviews with 63 stakeholders: 23 nursing home staff and leaders, 4 primary care providers, 10 family members, and 26 OPTIMISTIC clinical staff. We used directed content analysis to analyze the data. We found universal endorsement of the value of in-depth advance care planning (ACP) discussions in reducing hospitalizations and improving care. Similarly, all stakeholder groups emphasized that nursing home access to specially trained, project registered nurses (RNs) and nurse practitioners (NPs) with time to focus on ACP, comprehensive resident assessment, and staff education was particularly valuable in identifying residents' goals for care. Challenges to implementation included inadequately trained facility staff and resistance to changing practice. In addition, the program sometimes failed to communicate its goals and activities clearly, leaving facilities uncertain about the OPTIMISTIC clinical staff's roles in the facilities. These findings are important for dissemination efforts related to the OPTIMISTIC care model and may be applicable to other innovations in nursing homes. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America 2017. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Comparative optimism about healthy eating.

PubMed

Sproesser, Gudrun; Klusmann, Verena; Schupp, Harald T; Renner, Britta

2015-07-01

The present study investigated people's perception of their own as compared to their peers' healthy eating and related these perceptions to actual healthy eating, BMI, and subsequent healthy eating behavior. Data were collected within the framework of the longitudinal cohort study Konstanz Life Study (T1: N = 770; T2: N = 510). Our results demonstrated an optimistic bias on the group level. Specifically, people rated their own eating behavior as healthier on average than that of their average peers. This comparative optimism occurred even when actual healthy eating was unfavorable and BMI was high. However, it increased with actual healthy eating behavior. Importantly, optimistic perceptions were positively related to the intention to eat healthily and healthy eating six months later. Hence, the results suggest that an optimistic comparative view of one's own healthy eating is grounded in reality and boosts rather than deters subsequent health behavior. This implies that there might not be a need to reduce optimistic perceptions of healthy eating behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

World market: A survey of opportunities for advanced coal-fired systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holt, N.A.H.

1995-06-01

Although there is a wide range of forecasts for the future of World energy demand and consumption over the next 25 years, all forecasts show marked increases being required for all forms of fossil fuels even when optimistic projections are made for the future adoption of Nuclear and Renewable energy. It is also generally expected that coal usage will in this period experience its greatest growth (a doubling) in the Asia-Pacific region dominated demographically by China and India. In this paper, energy projections and the extent and nature of the coal reserves available worldwide are examined. While most coal technologiesmore » can handle a variety of feedstocks, there are often economic factors that will determine the preferred selection. The matching of technology to coal type and other factors is examined with particular reference to the Asia Pacific region. Oil usage is similarly forecast to experience a comparable growth in this region. Over 70% of the World`s oil reserves are heavy oils and refinery crudes are increasing in gravity and sulfur content. The clean coal technologies of gasification and fluid bed combustion can also use low value petroleum residuals as feedstocks. There is therefore a nearer term market opportunity to incorporate such technologies into cogeneration and coproduction schemes adjacent to refineries resulting in extremely efficient use of these resources.« less

Counteracting Obstacles with Optimistic Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ying; Fishbach, Ayelet

2010-01-01

This research tested for counteractive optimism: a self-control strategy of generating optimistic predictions of future goal attainment in order to overcome anticipated obstacles in goal pursuit. In support of the counteractive optimism model, participants in 5 studies predicted better performance, more time invested in goal activities, and lower…

People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior.

PubMed

Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

2015-01-01

Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior

PubMed Central

Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

2015-01-01

Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped. PMID:26658371

Can LENR Energy Gains Exceed 1000?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, David J.

2011-03-01

Energy gain is defined as the energy realized from reactions divided by the energy required to produce those reactions. Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) have already been measured to significantly exceed the energy gain of 10 projected from ITER,possibly 15 years from now. Electrochemical experiments using the Pd-D system have shown energy gains exceeding 10. Gas phase experiments with the Ni-H system were reported to yield energy gains of over 100. Neither of these reports has been adequately verified or reproduced. However, the question in the title still deserves consideration. If, as thought by many, it is possible to trigger nuclear reactions that yield MeV energies with chemical energies of the order of eV, then the most optimistic expectation is that LENR gains could approach one million. Hence, the very tentative answer to the question above is yes. However, if LENR could be initiated with some energy cost, and then continue to ``burn,'' very high energy gains might be realized. Consider a match and a pile of dry logs. The phenomenon termed ``heat after death'' will be examined to see if it might be the initial evidence for nuclear ``burning.''

Is Optimism Real?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simmons, Joseph P.; Massey, Cade

2012-01-01

Is optimism real, or are optimistic forecasts just cheap talk? To help answer this question, we investigated whether optimistic predictions persist in the face of large incentives to be accurate. We asked National Football League football fans to predict the winner of a single game. Roughly half (the partisans) predicted a game involving their…

Physician Expectations of Treatment Outcomes for Patients With Brain Metastases Referred for Whole Brain Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barnes, Elizabeth A., E-mail: toni.barnes@sunnybrook.c; Chow, Edward; Tsao, May N.

2010-01-15

Purpose: Patients with advanced cancer are referred to our Rapid Response Radiotherapy Program for quick access to palliative radiotherapy. The primary objective of this prospective study was to determine the physician expectations of the treatment outcomes for patients with brain metastases referred for whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). The secondary objectives were to determine the factors influencing the expectations and to examine the accuracy of the physician-estimated patient survival. Methods and Materials: Patients were identified during a 17-month period. The referring physicians were sent a survey by facsimile to be completed and returned before the patient consultation. Information was sought onmore » the patient's disease status, the physician's expectations of WBRT, the estimated patient survival and performance status, and physician demographic data. Results: A total of 137 surveys were sent out, and the overall response rate was 57.7%. The median patient age was 66 years (range, 35-87), 78.5% had multiple brain metastases, 42.3% had a controlled primary tumor, and 62.3% had extracranial disease. WBRT was thought to stabilize neurologic symptoms, improve quality of life, and allow for a Decadron (dexamethasone) taper by >=94.9% of the referring physicians; 87.0% thought WBRT would improve performance status; 77.9% thought it would improve neurologic symptoms; and 40.8% thought it would improve survival. The referring physicians estimated patient survival as a median of 6.0 months; however, the actual survival was a median of 2.5 months, for a median individual difference of 1.9 months (p < .0001). Conclusion: Physicians referring patients with brain metastases for consideration of WBRT are often overly optimistic when estimating the clinical benefit of the treatment and overestimate patient survival. These findings highlight the need for education and additional research in this field.« less

Determinants of satisfaction 1 year after total hip arthroplasty: the role of expectations fulfilment.

PubMed

Palazzo, Clémence; Jourdan, Claire; Descamps, Stéphane; Nizard, Rémi; Hamadouche, Moussa; Anract, Philippe; Boisgard, Stéphane; Galvin, Myriam; Ravaud, Philippe; Poiraudeau, Serge

2014-02-24

Between 7% and 15% of patients are dissatisfied after total hip arthroplasty (THA). To assess predictors and postoperative determinants of satisfaction and expectation fulfilment one year after (THA). Before THA surgery, 132 patients from three tertiary care centres and their surgeons were interviewed to assess their expectations using the Hospital for Special Surgery Total Hip Replacement Expectations Survey (THR survey). One year after surgery, patients (n = 123) were contacted by phone to complete a questionnaire on expectation fulfilment (THR survey), satisfaction, functional outcome (Womac), and health-related quality of life (SF 12). Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Preoperative predictors of satisfaction were a good mental wellbeing (adjusted OR 1.09 [1.02; 1.16], p = 0.01) and optimistic surgeons expectations (1.07 [1.01; 1.14], p = 0.02). The main postoperative determinant of satisfaction was the fulfilment of patient's expectations (1.08 [1.04; 1.12], p < 0.001). Expectation fulfilment could be predicted before surgery by young age (regression coefficient -0.55 [-0.88; -0.21], p = 0.002), good physical function (-0.96 [-1.82; -0.10], p = 0.03) and good mental wellbeing (0.56 [0.14; 0.99], p = 0.01). Postoperative determinants of expectation fulfilment were functional outcome (-2.10 [-2.79; -1.42], p <0.001) and pain relief (-14.83 [-22.38; -7.29], p < 0.001). To improve patient satisfaction after THA, patients' expectations and their fulfilment need to be carefully addressed. Patients with low mental wellbeing or physical function should be identified and specifically informed on expected surgical outcome. Surgeons' expectations are predictive of satisfaction and information should aim to lower discrepancy between surgeons' and patients' expectations.

Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations.

PubMed

Fuster, Andreas; Hebert, Benjamin; Laibson, David

2010-01-01

We study an investment model in which agents have the wrong beliefs about the dynamic properties of fundamentals. Specifically, we assume that agents underestimate the rate of mean reversion. The model exhibits the following six properties: (i) Beliefs are excessively optimistic in good times and excessively pessimistic in bad times. (ii) Asset prices are too volatile. (iii) Excess returns are negatively autocorrelated. (iv) High levels of corporate profits predict negative future excess returns. (v) Real economic activity is excessively volatile; the economy experiences amplified investment cycles. (vi) Corporate profits are positively autocorrelated in the short run and negatively autocorrelated in the medium run. The paper provides an illustrative model of animal spirits, amplified business cycles, and excess volatility.

Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations*

PubMed Central

Fuster, Andreas; Hebert, Benjamin; Laibson, David

2012-01-01

We study an investment model in which agents have the wrong beliefs about the dynamic properties of fundamentals. Specifically, we assume that agents underestimate the rate of mean reversion. The model exhibits the following six properties: (i) Beliefs are excessively optimistic in good times and excessively pessimistic in bad times. (ii) Asset prices are too volatile. (iii) Excess returns are negatively autocorrelated. (iv) High levels of corporate profits predict negative future excess returns. (v) Real economic activity is excessively volatile; the economy experiences amplified investment cycles. (vi) Corporate profits are positively autocorrelated in the short run and negatively autocorrelated in the medium run. The paper provides an illustrative model of animal spirits, amplified business cycles, and excess volatility. PMID:23243469

How to choose the right financial planner.

PubMed

Maurer, Timothy J

2010-01-01

An "economic Pearl Harbor." That is how the world's most famous investor, Warren Buffett, described what we have gone through and what we're still going through.' Even the most optimistic appraisals of our economic conditions suggest that we are likely to feel the effects of the Great Recession through the decade we recently entered. Healthcare reform, in whatever form, may also create change in your medical practice ranging from immaterial to revolutionary. To whom should you turn to ensure that your personal economy survives and thrives, especially in these times? A financial planner, possibly, but what is a financial planner, how do you choose one, and what sort of service should you expect?

Avoidance Denial versus Optimistic Denial in Reaction to the Threat of Future Cardiovascular Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Suzanne C.; Ting, Sarah A.

2012-01-01

Two distinctly different denial-based threat orientations (avoidance denial and optimistic denial) were examined using a message about the future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) for young adults. Participants (N = 101) completed measures of denial-based dispositional threat orientations, current eating, comparative risk, and objective risk…

Mind as Organization: An Optimistic Metaphorical Base for the Study of Intrapersonal Communications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neumann, David S.

The mind as organization metaphor asserts an optimistic and multi-faceted foundation for the examination of intrapersonal communication. Definitions of intrapersonal communication have not been developed without debate and controversy. As with many other ambiguous terms and definitions in the field of communication, an operational definition of…

Enhanced Intensity Dependence as a Marker of Low Serotonergic Neurotransmission in High Optimistic College Students

PubMed Central

Yao, Shuqiao; Xu, Yunxuan; Lu, Xuejing

2013-01-01

Positive psychology focuses were on the merits of individuals, such as optimism and positive attitude, and the subsequent cultivation of these virtues. Optimism or pessimism is a significant predictor of physical health outcomes. The present study examined whether optimism or pessimism is associated with the loudness dependence of auditory evoked potentials (LDAEP), a biological indicator of serotonergic neurotransmission, for the N1, P2, and N1/P2 peaks in college students. The amplitudes and amplitude-stimulus intensity function (ASF) slopes of the N1, P2, and N1/P2 peaks were determined in the 24 (10 males) high optimistic and 24 (14 males) high pessimistic individuals. Significantly higher P2 ASF slopes were found in the optimistic group relative to the pessimistic group. Concerning peaks and ASF slopes of N1 and N1/P2, no significant differences were observed. Our results suggest that the serotonergic neurotransmission of the high optimistic college students was inferior to that of the pessimistic ones. Further investigations are needed to provide sufficient support for our results. PMID:24383058

The Effect of Message Content and Clinical Outcome on Patients' Perception of Physician Compassion: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Tanco, Kimberson; Azhar, Ahsan; Rhondali, Wadih; Rodriguez-Nunez, Alfredo; Liu, Diane; Wu, Jimin; Baile, Walter; Bruera, Eduardo

2018-03-01

In a previous randomized crossover study, patients perceived a physician delivering a more optimistic message (MO) as more compassionate and professional. However, the impact of the clinical outcome of the patient on patient's perception of physician's level of compassion and professionalism has not been previously studied. Our aim was to determine if the reported clinical outcome modified the patient's perception of physician compassion, professionalism, impression, and preference for physician. One hundred twenty-eight advanced cancer patients in an outpatient Supportive Care Center were randomized to complete validated questionnaires about patients' perception of physician's level of compassion, professionalism, impression, and preference of physician for themselves and their family after watching scripted videos depicting a physician delivering an MO versus a less optimistic (LO) message followed by a clinical vignette depicting a worse outcome. Median age was 61 years and 55% were female. There was no difference in compassion score after the vignette in the MO and LO groups. However, there were significantly worse overall impression and professionalism scores in both the MO and LO groups after the vignette. In the MO group, preference for the physician for themselves and their family significantly decreased after the vignette. Seeing a worse clinical outcome did not change the patients' appraisal of an inappropriately optimistic physician. However, it reduced the overall impression of both physicians that conveyed an MO or an LO message and it also resulted in less likelihood of choosing the MO physician for themselves and their family. The study found that a patient's perception of a physician's compassion did not change after reading a vignette describing a negative clinical outcome, regardless of whether the physician had given a more or a less optimistic message to the patient. However, the results suggested that patients perceived worse professionalism and overall physician impression scores for both more and less optimistic physicians and lower likelihood to choose the more optimistic physician for themselves and their family. © AlphaMed Press 2017.

Visual Data-Analytics of Large-Scale Parallel Discrete-Event Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ross, Caitlin; Carothers, Christopher D.; Mubarak, Misbah

Parallel discrete-event simulation (PDES) is an important tool in the codesign of extreme-scale systems because PDES provides a cost-effective way to evaluate designs of highperformance computing systems. Optimistic synchronization algorithms for PDES, such as Time Warp, allow events to be processed without global synchronization among the processing elements. A rollback mechanism is provided when events are processed out of timestamp order. Although optimistic synchronization protocols enable the scalability of large-scale PDES, the performance of the simulations must be tuned to reduce the number of rollbacks and provide an improved simulation runtime. To enable efficient large-scale optimistic simulations, one has tomore » gain insight into the factors that affect the rollback behavior and simulation performance. We developed a tool for ROSS model developers that gives them detailed metrics on the performance of their large-scale optimistic simulations at varying levels of simulation granularity. Model developers can use this information for parameter tuning of optimistic simulations in order to achieve better runtime and fewer rollbacks. In this work, we instrument the ROSS optimistic PDES framework to gather detailed statistics about the simulation engine. We have also developed an interactive visualization interface that uses the data collected by the ROSS instrumentation to understand the underlying behavior of the simulation engine. The interface connects real time to virtual time in the simulation and provides the ability to view simulation data at different granularities. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework by performing a visual analysis of the dragonfly network topology model provided by the CODES simulation framework built on top of ROSS. The instrumentation needs to minimize overhead in order to accurately collect data about the simulation performance. To ensure that the instrumentation does not introduce unnecessary overhead, we perform a scaling study that compares instrumented ROSS simulations with their noninstrumented counterparts in order to determine the amount of perturbation when running at different simulation scales.« less

Trajectories of self-evaluation bias in primary and secondary school: Parental antecedents and academic consequences.

PubMed

Bonneville-Roussy, Arielle; Bouffard, Thérèse; Vezeau, Carole

2017-08-01

Using a longitudinal approach spanning nine years of children's formal education, this study investigated the developmental trajectories of self-evaluation bias of academic competence. The study also examined how parenting styles were associated with the trajectories of bias in mid-primary school, and how those trajectories predicted academic outcomes at the end of secondary school and the beginning of college. A total of 711 children in 4th and 5th grades (mean age=10.71years old; 358 girls) participated in this study. Using a latent class growth modeling framework, results indicated that children can be classified in three latent growth trajectories of self-evaluation bias: the optimistic, realistic and pessimistic trajectories. These trajectories differed in their initial status of bias and also in their development over time. Children's adherence to a specific trajectory was associated with parenting variables in childhood. Finally, the optimistic, realistic, or pessimistic trajectories distinctively predicted achievement and persistence. Copyright © 2017 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

It Won't Happen to Me: The Role of Optimistic Bias in African-American Teens' Risky Sexual Practices.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapin, John

Discovering why adolescents take sexual risks, despite knowledge of consequences, is a vital first step in combating the problem. Optimistic bias, the misperception that one is less likely than others to experience negative consequences from health behaviors, offers a promising explanation for adolescents' sexual risk-taking. Unfortunately,…

Why It Won't Happen to Me: How Older Adolescents Make Personal Risk Assessments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapin, John; Chirico, JoAnn

This study sought to document optimistic bias among older adolescents in the context of numerous hazards. It was among the first studies to triangulate quantitative and qualitative measures to investigate how individuals make personal risk assessments within the optimistic bias literature. Results from a small-scale survey and follow-up interviews…

The Influence of Body Mass Index, Sex, and Race on College Students' Optimistic Bias for Lifestyle Healthfulness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chock, T. Makana

2011-01-01

Objective: To examine the influence of body mass index (BMI), sex, and race on college students' optimistic bias (OB) concerning the healthiness of their own lifestyles relative to the "average college student" and best friends. Design: Cross-sectional survey. Setting: Large university campus. Participants: College students recruited…

Optimists and Pessimists: 2994 Entrepreneurs and Their Perceived Chances for Success. Paper No. 907.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Arnold C.; And Others

The following results are reported by this first stage of a longitudinal study of 2,994 new entrepreneurs' self-perceived odds for success and the relationship between entrepreneur background and those self-perceptions and between the nature of the new business and those self-perceptions: (1) women were considerably less optimistic about the…

Optimistic Outlooks: Latest Views on the Global Future by a Galaxy of International Experts.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feather, Frank, Ed.; Mayur, Rashmi, Ed.

Eighteen international futurists present their views concerning separate major world issues. The book includes a prologue which discusses the optimistic nature of most futurists; an introduction which describes the book's contents; 14 chapters arranged into 3 major parts; an epilogue; and conclusion. In part I, which examines the basic necessities…

Underestimation of Project Costs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2015-01-01

Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

I Am Really Good at Puzzles, but I Don't Get Asked to Play with Others: Age, Gender, and Ethnic Differences in Head Start Children's Self-Perceptions of Competence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mantzicopoulos, Panayota

2004-01-01

The author examined age, gender, and ethnic differences in the self-perceptions of 112 low-income children who were assessed with the Pictorial Scale of Perceived Competence and Social Acceptance (PSPCSA) at Head Start and kindergarten. Children's self-ratings of competence were overly optimistic across the 4 subscales of the PSPCSA during the 2…

Differences in perception of risk between people who have and have not experienced Salmonella food poisoning.

PubMed

Parry, Sharon M; Miles, Susan; Tridente, Ascanio; Palmer, Stephen R

2004-02-01

It is believed that food hygiene precautions in domestic kitchens are an important strategy in efforts to reduce the incidence of sporadic food poisoning, but recent research has shown that people who have suffered food poisoning handle the same types of foods and adopt similar food hygiene precautions in their kitchens to the rest of the population. This suggests the need to examine other factors. A case-control study of sporadic Salmonella food poisoning was conducted to investigate several domestic kitchen risk factors. Measures of perception of risk, knowledge, and control associated with food poisoning in case and control respondents are reported here. It was found that perceived personal risk from food poisoning in the home was less than perceived risk to other people. In contrast, ratings of personal knowledge about food poisoning and personal control over food poisoning in the home were seen to be greater than other people's knowledge and control. There were no differences between the cases and the controls in their ratings of knowledge about food poisoning or their control over food poisoning. However, cases perceived their personal risk from food poisoning to be higher than controls. Both case and control samples exhibited optimistic bias but this was reduced in the case sample, suggesting that experience with food poisoning may reduce optimistic bias.

Optimistic and defensive-pessimist students: differences in their academic motivation and learning strategies.

PubMed

Suárez Riveiro, José Manuel

2014-01-01

In addition to cognitive and behavioral strategies, students can also use affective-motivational strategies to facilitate their learning process. In this way, the strategies of defensive-pessimism and generation of positive expectations have been widely related to conceptual models of pessimism-optimism. The aim of this study was to describe the use of these strategies in 1753 secondary school students, and to study the motivational and strategic characteristics which differentiated between the student typologies identified as a result of their use. The results indicated a higher use of the generation of positive expectations strategy (optimism) (M = 3.40, SD = .78) than the use of the defensive pessimism strategy (M = 3.00, SD = .78); a positive and significant correlation between the two strategies (r = .372, p = .001); their relationship with adequate academic motivation and with the use of learning strategies. Furthermore, four student typologies were identified based on the use of both strategies. Lastly, we propose a new approach for future work in this line of research.

A life cycle assessment of options for producing synthetic fuel via pyrolysis.

PubMed

Vienescu, D N; Wang, J; Le Gresley, A; Nixon, J D

2018-02-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the sustainability of producing synthetic fuels from biomass using thermochemical processing and different upgrading pathways. Life cycle assessment (LCA) models consisting of biomass collection, transportation, pre-treatment, pyrolysis and upgrading stages were developed. To reveal the environmental impacts associated with greater post-processing to achieve higher quality fuels, six different bio-oil upgrading scenarios were analysed and included esterification, ketonisation, hydrotreating and hydrocracking. Furthermore, to take into account the possible ranges in LCA inventory data, expected, optimistic and pessimistic values for producing and upgrading pyrolysis oils were evaluated. We found that the expected carbon dioxide equivalent emissions could be as high as 6000 gCO 2e /kg of upgraded fuel, which is greater than the emissions arising from the use of diesel fuel. Other environmental impacts occurring from the fuel production process are outlined, such as resource depletion, acidification and eutrophication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The over-optimistic portrayal of life-supporting treatments in newspapers and on the Internet: a cross-sectional study using extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation as an example.

PubMed

Chen, Yen-Yuan; Chen, Likwang; Kao, Yu-Hui; Chu, Tzong-Shinn; Huang, Tien-Shang; Ko, Wen-Je

2014-08-01

Extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation has been introduced to clinical practice for several decades. It is unclear how internet and newspapers portray the use of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation. This study were: (1) to quantify the coverage of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation use in newspapers and on the Internet; (2) to describe the characteristics of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation users presented in newspaper articles and the Internet web pages in comparison with those shown in extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation studies in Taiwan; and (3) to examine the survival rates of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation users presented in newspaper articles and the Internet web pages in comparison with those in Taiwan and in the Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary for January 2014. All issues of Taiwan's four major newspapers from 2006 to 2010 were reviewed. In October 2011, a search of Internet web pages was performed based on the subjects of "yeh-ko-mo" (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation in Traditional Chinese), "ECMO", and "extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation." All the Internet web pages and newspaper articles recounting the use of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation were reviewed. The information, such as patient characteristic and the status at hospital discharge, was collected. The survival rate of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation use shown on the Internet (83.97%) was significantly higher than all the survival rates reported in Taiwan's literature (p < .01) and in the Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary for January 2014 (p < .01). In addition, the survival rate of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation use shown in newspapers (61.54%) was significantly higher than the average survival rate (43%) reported in Taiwan's literature, the pediatric average survival rate (51%), and the adult average survival rate (47%) in the Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary for January 2014. Internet and newspapers both showed over-optimistic survival to hospital discharge for patients sustained by extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation. Internet was more likely to provide optimistic information for aggressive life-supporting treatments such as extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation than newspapers as indicated by survival to hospital discharge.

Effects of optimism on gambling in the rat slot machine task.

PubMed

Rafa, Dominik; Kregiel, Jakub; Popik, Piotr; Rygula, Rafal

2016-03-01

Although gambling disorder is a serious social problem in modern societies, information about the behavioral traits that could determine vulnerability to this psychopathology is still scarce. In this study, we used a recently developed ambiguous-cue interpretation ​(ACI)​ paradigm to investigate whether 'optimism' and 'pessimism' as behavioral traits may determine the gambling-like behavior of rodents. In a series of ACI tests (cognitive bias screening), we identified rats that displayed 'pessimistic' and 'optimistic' traits. Subsequently, using the rat slot machine task (rSMT), we investigated if the 'optimistic'/'pessimistic' traits could determine the crucial feature of gambling-like behavior that has been investigated in rats and humans: the ​interpretation of 'near-miss' outcomes as a positive (i.e., win) situation. We found that 'optimists' did not interpret 'near-miss', 'near loss', or 'clear win' as win trials more often than ​their 'pessimistic' ​conspecifics; however, the 'optimists' were statistically more likely to reach for a reward in the hopeless 'clear loss' situation. This agrees with human studies and provides a platform for modeling interactions between behavioral traits and gambling in animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Peer norm guesses and self-reported attitudes towards performance-related pay.

PubMed

Georgantzis, Nikolaos; Vasileiou, Efi; Kotzaivazoglou, Iordanis

2017-01-01

Due to a variety of reasons, people see themselves differently from how they see others. This basic asymmetry has broad consequences. It leads people to judge themselves and their own behavior differently from how they judge others and others' behavior. This research, first, studies the perceptions and attitudes of Greek Public Sector employees towards the introduction of Performance-Related Pay (PRP) systems trying to reveal whether there is a divergence between individual attitudes and guesses on peers' attitudes. Secondly, it is investigated whether divergence between own self-reported and peer norm guesses could mediate the acceptance of the aforementioned implementation once job status has been controlled for. This study uses a unique questionnaire of 520 observations which was designed to address the questions outlined in the preceding lines. Our econometric results indicate that workers have heterogeneous attitudes and hold heterogeneous beliefs on others' expectations regarding a successful implementation of PRP. Specifically, individual perceptions are less skeptical towards PRP than are beliefs on others' attitudes. Additionally, we found that managers are significantly more optimistic than lower rank employees regarding the expected success of PRP systems in their jobs. However, they both expect their peers to be more negative than they themselves are.

Peer norm guesses and self-reported attitudes towards performance-related pay

PubMed Central

Vasileiou, Efi; Kotzaivazoglou, Iordanis

2017-01-01

Due to a variety of reasons, people see themselves differently from how they see others. This basic asymmetry has broad consequences. It leads people to judge themselves and their own behavior differently from how they judge others and others’ behavior. This research, first, studies the perceptions and attitudes of Greek Public Sector employees towards the introduction of Performance-Related Pay (PRP) systems trying to reveal whether there is a divergence between individual attitudes and guesses on peers’ attitudes. Secondly, it is investigated whether divergence between own self-reported and peer norm guesses could mediate the acceptance of the aforementioned implementation once job status has been controlled for. This study uses a unique questionnaire of 520 observations which was designed to address the questions outlined in the preceding lines. Our econometric results indicate that workers have heterogeneous attitudes and hold heterogeneous beliefs on others’ expectations regarding a successful implementation of PRP. Specifically, individual perceptions are less skeptical towards PRP than are beliefs on others’ attitudes. Additionally, we found that managers are significantly more optimistic than lower rank employees regarding the expected success of PRP systems in their jobs. However, they both expect their peers to be more negative than they themselves are. PMID:28414737

Optimistic expectations about communication explain children's difficulties in hiding, lying, and mistrusting liars.

PubMed

Mascaro, Olivier; Morin, Olivier; Sperber, Dan

2017-09-01

We suggest that preschoolers' frequent obliviousness to the risks and opportunities of deception comes from a trusting stance supporting verbal communication. Three studies (N = 125) confirm this hypothesis. Three-year-olds can hide information from others (Study 1) and they can lie (Study 2) in simple settings. Yet when one introduces the possibility of informing others in the very same settings, three-year-olds tend to be honest (Studies 1 and 2). Similarly, four-year-olds, though capable of treating assertions as false, trust deceptive informants (Study 3). We suggest that children's reduced sensitivity to the opportunities of lying, and to the risks of being lied to might help explain their difficulties on standard false belief tasks.

How Does Optimism Suppress Immunity? Evaluation of Three Affective Pathways

PubMed Central

Segerstrom, Suzanne C.

2005-01-01

Studies have linked optimism to poorer immunity during difficult stressors. In the present report, when first-year law students (N = 46) relocated to attend law school, reducing conflict among curricular and extracurricular goals, optimism predicted larger delayed type hypersensitivity responses, indicating more robust in vivo cellular immunity. However, when students did not relocate, increasing goal conflict, optimism predicted smaller responses. Although this effect has been attributed to negative affect when difficult stressors violate optimistic expectancies, distress did not mediate optimism’s effects on immunity. Alternative affective mediators related to engagement – engaged affect and fatigue – likewise failed to mediate optimism’s effects, although all three types of affect independently influenced in vivo immunity. Alternative pathways include effort or self-regulatory depletion. PMID:17014284

Presidential leadership.

PubMed

Goethals, George R

2005-01-01

This chapter reviews psychological theories of leadership and selected literature on the American presidency to highlight key psychological principles of presidential leadership. Psychological theories, framed by the principles of leadership outlined by Freud (1921), include those of Burns (1978, 2003) on transformational leadership, Bass (1997) and House & Shamir (1993) on charismatic and transformational leadership, Gardner (1995) on stories of identity, Hogg (2001, 2003) on social identity, and Tyler & Lind (1992) on procedural justice. The discussion of presidential scholarship considers work by Barber (1992) on presidential character, Simonton (1986, 1987) on presidential personality and success, Skowronek (1997) on reconstructive politics, and Winter (1987) on presidential motive profiles. These studies suggest that followers have high expectations for presidents and that successful presidential leadership depends on opportunity, high levels of activity, intelligence, optimistic resilience, and flexibility.

A Theory of Cramer-Rao Bounds for Constrained Parametric Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of...overly optimistic. This occurs frequently in communications when the signal- to-noise ratio (SNR) or data transmission size decreases. 43 3.1, then U ?(φ...space of UTHT , the LSE is BLUE and is given by dT θ̂CLS(x) = d Tθ1 + d TU ( UTQU )† UTHTC−1 ( x−Hθ1 ) (3.28) similar to (3.27) with variance dTU

What Can We Learn From Proton Recoils about Heavy-Ion SEE Sensitivity?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladbury, Raymond L.

2016-01-01

The fact that protons cause single-event effects (SEE) in most devices through production of light-ion recoils has led to attempts to bound heavy-ion SEE susceptibility through use of proton data. Although this may be a viable strategy for some devices and technologies, the data must be analyzed carefully and conservatively to avoid over-optimistic estimates of SEE performance. We examine the constraints that proton test data can impose on heavy-ion SEE susceptibility.

The optimistic heretic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyson, Freeman

2008-01-01

The Oxford English Dictionary defines the word “heretic” as “the holder of an unorthodox opinion”. By his own admission, physicist Freeman Dyson has most definitely not been a heretic as far as his contributions to science are concerned, having carried out significant research on quantum electrodynamics and the stability of bulk matter. However, he certainly has unorthodox views when it comes to social issues related to science, which he has discussed at length in a number of books over the last two decades.

Impact of Brexit on the forest products industry of the United Kingdom and the rest of the world

Treesearch

Craig M. T. Johnston; Joseph Buongiorno

2016-01-01

The Global Forest Products Model was applied to forecast the effect of Brexit on the global forest products industry to2003 under two scenarios; an optimistic and pessimistic future storyline regarding the potential economic effect of Brexit. The forecasts integrated a range of gross domestic product growth rates using an average of the optimistic and...

Equal Opportunity Programming and Optimistic Program Assessment: First-Year Writing Program Design and Assessment at John Jay College of Criminal Justice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCormack, Tim; McBeth, Mark

2016-01-01

As Brian Huot and Ellen E. Schendel assert, when assessment has more than validation in mind, it "can become a means for proactive change" (208). In response to this idea of assessment as an optimistic and opportunistic enterprise, this article describes how the structural design of our "equal opportunity" writing program and…

Midwifery and nursing students' communication skills and life orientation: correlation with stress coping approaches.

PubMed

Ozdemir, Gülsün; Kaya, Hatice

2013-06-01

Methods learnt by nursing and midwifery students' such as communication skills, optimisim and coping with stress would be used in their profeesional life. It is very important to promote their positive thinking and communication skills to raise coping with stress. This cross sectional study was performed to examine the nursing and midwifery students' communication skills and optimistic life orientation and its correlation with coping strategies with stress. The study population included 2572 students who were studying in departments of nursing and midwifery in Istanbul. The sample was included 1419 students. Three questionnaires including Communication Skills Test, Life Orientation Test and Ways of Coping Inventory were used for data collection. The data were evaluated by calculating frequency, percentage, arithmetic mean, standard deviation and Pearson correlation coefficient. Students' total mean score from the Communication Skills Scale was 165.27 ± 15.39 and for the Life Orientation Test was 18.51 ± 4.54. There was a positive correlation between their Life Orientation scores and the scores for self confidence (r = 0.34, P < 0.001), optimistic approach (r = 0.42, P < 0.001), and seeking social help (r = 0.17, P < 0.001). Also there was a significant positive correlation between Communication skill scores and self confidence (r = 0.46, P < 0.001), optimistic (r = 0.37, P < 0.001) and seeking social help approaches (r = 0.29, P < 0.001), but there was a significant negative correlation between communication skill scores and scores for helpless (r = -0.29, P < 0.001) and submissive approaches (r = -0.36, P < 0.001). As scores of students in optimistic life orientation and communication skills increased self confidence approach, optimistic, and social support seeking scores increased, whereas helpless, and submissive scores decreased.

An elusive goal? Gender equity and gender equality in health policy.

PubMed

Payne, S

2012-04-01

Variations in the health of men and women are well known: men have poorer life expectancy than women in virtually every country, and there are differences between women and men in patterns of morbidity across the life course. These variations reflect both biology and gender, and health systems play a part through the services they offer. In recent years a number of national governments and international bodies have paid increasing attention to gender inequalities, and gender mainstreaming has been adopted by as a key policy objective at various levels of governance. While gender mainstreaming has resulted in some successes, analysis of the depth of change suggests a less optimistic view, reflecting the persistence of barriers to gender mainstreaming in health, which include a lack of resources, uncertainty over the goals of gender mainstreaming, and notional rather than genuine adoption of gender mainstreaming principles. Underlying these barriers however, is the use of bureaucratic and systems-based approaches to gender mainstreaming. The failure to challenge underlying gender relations of power allows gender strategies to become technocratic exercises which achieve results in terms of the boxes ticked, but not in relation to what matters: the health and health opportunities of both women and men. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Two Paradigmatic Waves of Public Discourse on Nuclear Waste in the United States, 1945-2009: Understanding a Magnitudinal and Longitudinal Phenomenon in Anthropological Terms.

PubMed

Pajo, Judi

2016-01-01

This project set out to illuminate the discursive existence of nuclear waste in American culture. Given the significant temporal dimension of the phenomenon as well as the challenging size of the United States setting, the project adapted key methodological elements of the sociocultural anthropology tradition and produced proxies for ethnographic fieldnotes and key informant interviews through sampling the digital archives of the New York Times over a 64-year period that starts with the first recorded occurrence of the notion of nuclear waste and ends with the conclusion of the presidency of George W. Bush. Two paradigmatic waves of American public discourse on nuclear waste come to light when subjecting this empirical data to quantitative inventorying and interpretive analysis: between 1945 and 1969 nuclear waste was generally framed in light of the beneficial utilizations of nuclear reactions and with optimistic expectations for a scientific/technological solution; by contrast, between 1969 and 2009 nuclear waste was conceptualized as inherited harm that could not be undone and contestation that required political/legal management. Besides this key finding and the empirical timing of the two paradigms, the study's value lies also with its detailed empirical documentation of nuclear waste in its sociocultural existence.

Two Paradigmatic Waves of Public Discourse on Nuclear Waste in the United States, 1945-2009: Understanding a Magnitudinal and Longitudinal Phenomenon in Anthropological Terms

PubMed Central

Pajo, Judi

2016-01-01

This project set out to illuminate the discursive existence of nuclear waste in American culture. Given the significant temporal dimension of the phenomenon as well as the challenging size of the United States setting, the project adapted key methodological elements of the sociocultural anthropology tradition and produced proxies for ethnographic fieldnotes and key informant interviews through sampling the digital archives of the New York Times over a 64-year period that starts with the first recorded occurrence of the notion of nuclear waste and ends with the conclusion of the presidency of George W. Bush. Two paradigmatic waves of American public discourse on nuclear waste come to light when subjecting this empirical data to quantitative inventorying and interpretive analysis: between 1945 and 1969 nuclear waste was generally framed in light of the beneficial utilizations of nuclear reactions and with optimistic expectations for a scientific/technological solution; by contrast, between 1969 and 2009 nuclear waste was conceptualized as inherited harm that could not be undone and contestation that required political/legal management. Besides this key finding and the empirical timing of the two paradigms, the study’s value lies also with its detailed empirical documentation of nuclear waste in its sociocultural existence. PMID:27310719

Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyse the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of 656 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centred on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who were more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.

Response to Comment on "Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science".

PubMed

Anderson, Christopher J; Bahník, Štěpán; Barnett-Cowan, Michael; Bosco, Frank A; Chandler, Jesse; Chartier, Christopher R; Cheung, Felix; Christopherson, Cody D; Cordes, Andreas; Cremata, Edward J; Della Penna, Nicolas; Estel, Vivien; Fedor, Anna; Fitneva, Stanka A; Frank, Michael C; Grange, James A; Hartshorne, Joshua K; Hasselman, Fred; Henninger, Felix; van der Hulst, Marije; Jonas, Kai J; Lai, Calvin K; Levitan, Carmel A; Miller, Jeremy K; Moore, Katherine S; Meixner, Johannes M; Munafò, Marcus R; Neijenhuijs, Koen I; Nilsonne, Gustav; Nosek, Brian A; Plessow, Franziska; Prenoveau, Jason M; Ricker, Ashley A; Schmidt, Kathleen; Spies, Jeffrey R; Stieger, Stefan; Strohminger, Nina; Sullivan, Gavin B; van Aert, Robbie C M; van Assen, Marcel A L M; Vanpaemel, Wolf; Vianello, Michelangelo; Voracek, Martin; Zuni, Kellylynn

2016-03-04

Gilbert et al. conclude that evidence from the Open Science Collaboration's Reproducibility Project: Psychology indicates high reproducibility, given the study methodology. Their very optimistic assessment is limited by statistical misconceptions and by causal inferences from selectively interpreted, correlational data. Using the Reproducibility Project: Psychology data, both optimistic and pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility are possible, and neither are yet warranted. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

What we talk about when we talk about recovery: a systematic review and best-fit framework synthesis of qualitative literature.

PubMed

Stuart, Simon Robertson; Tansey, Louise; Quayle, Ethel

2017-06-01

The recovery approach is increasingly popular among mental-health services, but there is a lack of consensus about its applicability and it has been criticised for imposing professionalised ideas onto what was originally a service-user concept. To carry out a review and synthesis of qualitative research to answer the question: "What do we know about how service users with severe and enduring mental illness experience the process of recovery?" It was hoped that this would improve clarity and increase understanding. A systematic review identified 15 peer-reviewed articles examining experiences of recovery. Twelve of these were analysed using best-fit framework synthesis, with the CHIME model of recovery providing the exploratory framework. The optimistic themes of CHIME accounted for the majority of people's experiences, but more than 30% of data were not felt to be encapsulated. An expanded conceptualisation of recovery is proposed, in which difficulties are more prominently considered. An overly optimistic, professionally imposed view of recovery might homogenise or even blame individuals rather than empower them. Further understanding is needed of different experiences of recovery, and of people's struggles to recover.

Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

PubMed

Griffin, D; Buehler, R

1999-02-01

Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Unrealistic optimism in advice taking: A computational account.

PubMed

Leong, Yuan Chang; Zaki, Jamil

2018-02-01

Expert advisors often make surprisingly inaccurate predictions about the future, yet people heed their suggestions nonetheless. Here we provide a novel, computational account of this unrealistic optimism in advice taking. Across 3 studies, participants observed as advisors predicted the performance of a stock. Advisors varied in their accuracy, performing reliably above, at, or below chance. Despite repeated feedback, participants exhibited inflated perceptions of advisors' accuracy, and reliably "bet" on advisors' predictions more than their performance warranted. Participants' decisions tightly tracked a computational model that makes 2 assumptions: (a) people hold optimistic initial expectations about advisors, and (b) people preferentially incorporate information that adheres to their expectations when learning about advisors. Consistent with model predictions, explicitly manipulating participants' initial expectations altered their optimism bias and subsequent advice-taking. With well-calibrated initial expectations, participants no longer exhibited an optimism bias. We then explored crowdsourced ratings as a strategy to curb unrealistic optimism in advisors. Star ratings for each advisor were collected from an initial group of participants, which were then shown to a second group of participants. Instead of calibrating expectations, these ratings propagated and exaggerated the unrealistic optimism. Our results provide a computational account of the cognitive processes underlying inflated perceptions of expertise, and explore the boundary conditions under which they occur. We discuss the adaptive value of this optimism bias, and how our account can be extended to explain unrealistic optimism in other domains. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Hope-inspiring therapeutic relationships, professional expectations and social inclusion for young people with psychosis.

PubMed

Berry, Clio; Greenwood, Kathryn

2015-10-01

Personal recovery accounts suggest that a positive therapeutic relationship with an optimistic mental health professional may facilitate social inclusion. However, little empirical research has investigated the role of the therapeutic relationship in social outcomes or explored potential mechanisms of change within community psychosis care. This study investigated the direct predictive associations of the therapeutic relationship and professional expectancies for social inclusion and vocational activity for young people with psychosis, and indirect associations through hopefulness. Young people with psychosis and their main mental health professional (n=51 dyads) participated across two time points. Measures of therapeutic relationships, professional expectancies, and vocational activity were obtained at baseline. Measures of hopefulness, social inclusion and vocational activity were obtained at follow-up. Direct and indirect associations between variables were analysed using path modelling. Directed path models were consistent with a positive therapeutic relationship and positive professional expectancies predicting social inclusion and vocational activity through mediation by increased patient domain-specific hopefulness. The professional-rated therapeutic relationship more directly predicts change in vocational activity status. Change in vocational activity status predicts increased patient hopefulness. The therapeutic relationship between professionals and young people with psychosis appears hope-inspiring and important to patients' social inclusion and vocational outcomes. Vocational activity may produce reciprocal gains in hopefulness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Memories of unethical actions become obfuscated over time

PubMed Central

Kouchaki, Maryam; Gino, Francesca

2016-01-01

Despite our optimistic belief that we would behave honestly when facing the temptation to act unethically, we often cross ethical boundaries. This paper explores one possibility of why people engage in unethical behavior over time by suggesting that their memory for their past unethical actions is impaired. We propose that, after engaging in unethical behavior, individuals’ memories of their actions become more obfuscated over time because of the psychological distress and discomfort such misdeeds cause. In nine studies (n = 2,109), we show that engaging in unethical behavior produces changes in memory so that memories of unethical actions gradually become less clear and vivid than memories of ethical actions or other types of actions that are either positive or negative in valence. We term this memory obfuscation of one’s unethical acts over time “unethical amnesia.” Because of unethical amnesia, people are more likely to act dishonestly repeatedly over time. PMID:27185941

Memories of unethical actions become obfuscated over time.

PubMed

Kouchaki, Maryam; Gino, Francesca

2016-05-31

Despite our optimistic belief that we would behave honestly when facing the temptation to act unethically, we often cross ethical boundaries. This paper explores one possibility of why people engage in unethical behavior over time by suggesting that their memory for their past unethical actions is impaired. We propose that, after engaging in unethical behavior, individuals' memories of their actions become more obfuscated over time because of the psychological distress and discomfort such misdeeds cause. In nine studies (n = 2,109), we show that engaging in unethical behavior produces changes in memory so that memories of unethical actions gradually become less clear and vivid than memories of ethical actions or other types of actions that are either positive or negative in valence. We term this memory obfuscation of one's unethical acts over time "unethical amnesia." Because of unethical amnesia, people are more likely to act dishonestly repeatedly over time.

Analysis of the Energy Resources and Demand of Western Europe.

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-07-01

possible for your organization. Please request NTIS-PR-205/PCW for more infor- mation. The weekly newsletter series will keep you current . But learn...to Optimistic View of U. K. Oil Position ^ * ’ Published in The Economist in May 1974 24 Rise of Drilling Costs in...North Sea aid * * Pipelines Under Construction or Operational A-23 Optimistic View of U.K. Oil Position , Published in The Economist in May 1974

Climate negotiators’ and scientists’ assessments of the climate negotiations

PubMed Central

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyze the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of more than 600 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centered on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who are more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals’ perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations. PMID:28603558

Cultural variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias for self versus a sibling: is there evidence for self-enhancement in the west and for self-criticism in the east when the referent group is specified?

PubMed

Chang, Edward C; Asakawa, Kiyoshi

2003-03-01

A culturally relevant framework was used to examine variations on optimistic and pessimistic bias in Westerners and Easterners. Study 1 showed that 136 European Americans compared with 159 Japanese were more likely to predict typical positive events to occur to self than to a sibling. The opposite pattern emerged in the prediction of typical negative events. Study 2 replicated these findings on the basis of predictions for atypical events in 175 European Americans and 130 Japanese. Across both studies, within-groups analyses indicated that European Americans held an optimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative events, whereas Japanese held a pessimistic bias for negative events. These findings are taken to offer support for presumed cultural differences in self-enhancement and self-criticism between Westerners and Easterners, respectively.

Communicating prognosis with parents of critically ill infants: direct observation of clinician behaviors.

PubMed

Boss, R D; Lemmon, M E; Arnold, R M; Donohue, P K

2017-11-01

Delivering prognostic information to families requires clinicians to forecast an infant's illness course and future. We lack robust empirical data about how prognosis is shared and how that affects clinician-family concordance regarding infant outcomes. Prospective audiorecording of neonatal intensive care unit family conferences, immediately followed by parent/clinician surveys. Existing qualitative analysis frameworks were applied. We analyzed 19 conferences. Most prognostic discussion targeted predicted infant functional needs, for example, medications or feeding. There was little discussion of how infant prognosis would affect infant/family quality of life. Prognostic framing was typically optimistic. Most parents left the conference believing their infant's prognosis to be more optimistic than did clinicians. Clinician approach to prognostic disclosure in these audiotaped family conferences tended to be broad and optimistic, without detail regarding implications of infant health for infant/family quality of life. Families and clinicians left these conversations with little consensus about infant prognosis.

Why are Optimists Optimistic?

PubMed Central

Sohl, Stephanie J.; Moyer, Anne; Lukin, Konstantin; Knapp-Oliver, Sarah K.

2012-01-01

This study examined what is brought to mind when responding to the items comprising a measure of dispositional optimism. Participants (N = 113) completed the Life Orientation Test and the COPE, a measure of coping style, and described why they responded the way they did to the items assessing optimism. Participants’ explanations comprised eight types of reasoning: (1) faith in a higher power; (2) belief in fate or a just world; (3) personal fortune; (4) belief in the role of one’s own ability; (5) reliance on idioms; (6) beliefs about the usefulness of thinking optimistically; (7) matter-of-fact statements; and (8) a feeling, intuition, or hope. These types were also related to coping styles. Responses to positively-worded items were explained with respect to external forces and responses to negatively-worded items were explained with respect to internal forces. Understanding how people explain their optimism may be the first step in fostering this outlook. PMID:23239937

The wealth, health and wellbeing of Ireland's older people before and during the economic crisis.

PubMed

Barrett, A; O'Sullivan, V

2014-07-03

The economic crisis of 2008/9 was felt more acutely in Ireland relative to elsewhere and culminated in the international bailout in 2010. Given the economic collapse, Ireland provides an ideal case-study of the link between wealth collapses and movements in variables such as health and well-being. Using nationally-representative samples of older people collected before and during the crisis, we show that mean net assets fell by 45 percent between 2006/7 and 2012/13. In spite of this massive fall in wealth, measures of health and well-being remained broadly unchanged. However, expectations about future living standards became less optimistic. The results tend to support the findings of other recent studies that recessions do not have widespread negative effects on health and well-being.

Time to Give in: Firm Belief in Administrative Reform as a Driver for Delivering Benefits from IT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, Jeppe Agger; Medaglia, Rony; Andersen, Kim Normann

This paper presents the results of a survey on the opinions of Danish local government managers on the future use of IT after the merger of 271 municipalities into 100. Findings show that the highest expectations on the outcome of IT implementation are related to increased efficiency and to new and better ways to solve tasks. However, the high hopes are contrasted by the respondents’ experiences with the use of IT thus far. Managers are not optimistic about the possibility that IT can lead to a strengthening of local democracy and citizen involvement. Overall, findings show that the municipalities’ visions on the use of IT support a company-oriented way of thinking that mainly focuses on management and effective operation.

Can CO2 help save Venice from the Sea?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comerlati, Andrea; Ferronato, Massimiliano; Gambolati, Giuseppe; Putti, Mario; Teatini, Pietro

On 14 May this year, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi cut the ribbon on a multi-billion-dollar project named MOSE that is aimed at solving the problem of “acqua alta,” the increasingly frequent floods that jeopardize the survival of Venice. Cost is estimated (a few say conservatively) at 3 billion euros and construction time (a few say optimistically) at 8 years. MOSE involves building mobile barriers at the Venice Lagoon inlets to prevent severe Adriatic Sea storms from flooding the city. Although the Italian government and the local administrations have given their final approval, MOSE still has several opponents who believe it will cause severe threats to the lagoon ecosystem, and will soon become obsolete because of the expected sea level rise due to global warming.

Are personal characteristics of massage therapists associated with their clinical, educational, and interpersonal behaviors?

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Karen; Campo, Shelly

2013-01-01

Background Social Cognitive Theory suggests that characteristics of health professionals, such as their beliefs in the effectiveness of their care, influence their behavior. Studying the characteristics of massage therapists may, therefore, provide insight into their clinical, educational and interpersonal behavior, which ultimately affects their client interactions. Purpose To examine the association of three personal factors (outcome expectations, expectancies, and practice experience) of the massage therapist and the practice environment with the frequency of three interventional behaviors (clinical, educational, and interpersonal) using Social Cognitive Theory as a theoretical framework. Methods A random sample of licensed massage therapists in Iowa completed a mailed questionnaire. Questions included training in massage, use of specific massage techniques and practices, 11 outcome expectations, and 17 different behaviors with their respective expectancies for contributing to favorable client outcomes. Factor analyses were conducted on the behavior and expectancy items. Regression analyses were used to examine the relationship of massage therapist characteristics to the different categories of behavior. Results The response rate was 40% (N = 151). The most common techniques employed were Swedish massage, trigger point therapy, and stretching. The most common practices recommended to clients were encouraging water intake, heat application, stretching, stress management, and exercise counseling. Expectancies was the only Social Cognitive Theory variable that significantly predicted the frequency of every category of behavior (clinical, interpersonal, education; all ps < .01). Outcome expectations predicted clinical (p = .03) and educational (p < .01), but not interpersonal behavior. No other associations reached statistical significance. Conclusions Massage therapists’ belief in massage to enact a favorable change in a client is strongly associated with their clinical, educational, and interpersonal behavior. Massage therapists were optimistic regarding the ability of massage to provide a favorable outcome, especially if the desired outcome was supported by research. PMID:24000306

Optimism and well-being: A prospective multi-method and multi-dimensional examination of optimism as a resilience factor following the occurrence of stressful life events

PubMed Central

Kleiman, Evan M.; Chiara, Alexandra M.; Liu, Richard T.; Jager-Hyman, Shari G.; Choi, Jimmy Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2016-01-01

Optimism has been conceptualized variously as positive expectations for the future (Scheier & Carver, 1985), optimistic attributions (Peterson & Seligman, 1984), illusion of control (Alloy & Abramson, 1979), and self-enhancing biases (Weinstein, 1980). Relatively little research has examined these multiple dimensions of optimism in relation to psychological and physical health. The current study assessed the multidimensional nature of optimism within a prospective vulnerability-stress framework. Initial principal component analyses revealed the following dimensions: Positive Expectations (PE), Inferential Style (IS), Sense of Invulnerability (SI), and Overconfidence (O). Prospective follow-up analyses demonstrated that PE was associated with fewer depressive episodes and moderated the effect of stressful life events on depressive symptoms. SI also moderated the effect of life stress on anxiety symptoms. Generally, our findings indicated that optimism is a multifaceted construct and not all forms of optimism have the same effects on well-being. Specifically, our findings indicted that PE may be the most relevant to depression, whereas SI may be the most relevant to anxiety. PMID:26558316

Assessment of outcome after severe brain damage.

PubMed

Jennett, B; Bond, M

1975-03-01

Persisting disability after brain damage usually comprises both mental and physical handicap. The mental component is often the more important in contributing to overall social disability. Lack of an objective scale leads to vague and over-optimistic estimates of outcome, which obscure the ultimate results of early management. A five-point scale is described--death, persistent vegetative state, severe disability, moderate disability, and good recovery. Duration as well as intensity of disability should be included in an index of ill-health; this applies particularly after head injury, because many disabled survivors are young.

The over-optimistic portrayal of life-supporting treatments in newspapers and on the Internet: a cross-sectional study using extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation as an example

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation has been introduced to clinical practice for several decades. It is unclear how internet and newspapers portray the use of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation. This study were: (1) to quantify the coverage of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation use in newspapers and on the Internet; (2) to describe the characteristics of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation users presented in newspaper articles and the Internet web pages in comparison with those shown in extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation studies in Taiwan; and (3) to examine the survival rates of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation users presented in newspaper articles and the Internet web pages in comparison with those in Taiwan and in the Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary for January 2014. Methods All issues of Taiwan’s four major newspapers from 2006 to 2010 were reviewed. In October 2011, a search of Internet web pages was performed based on the subjects of “yeh-ko-mo” (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation in Traditional Chinese), “ECMO”, and “extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation.” All the Internet web pages and newspaper articles recounting the use of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation were reviewed. The information, such as patient characteristic and the status at hospital discharge, was collected. Results The survival rate of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation use shown on the Internet (83.97%) was significantly higher than all the survival rates reported in Taiwan’s literature (p < .01) and in the Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary for January 2014 (p < .01). In addition, the survival rate of extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation use shown in newspapers (61.54%) was significantly higher than the average survival rate (43%) reported in Taiwan’s literature, the pediatric average survival rate (51%), and the adult average survival rate (47%) in the Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary for January 2014. Conclusions Internet and newspapers both showed over-optimistic survival to hospital discharge for patients sustained by extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation. Internet was more likely to provide optimistic information for aggressive life-supporting treatments such as extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation than newspapers as indicated by survival to hospital discharge. PMID:25081491

EXACT DISTRIBUTIONS OF INTRACLASS CORRELATION AND CRONBACH'S ALPHA WITH GAUSSIAN DATA AND GENERAL COVARIANCE.

PubMed

Kistner, Emily O; Muller, Keith E

2004-09-01

Intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are widely used to describe reliability of tests and measurements. Even with Gaussian data, exact distributions are known only for compound symmetric covariance (equal variances and equal correlations). Recently, large sample Gaussian approximations were derived for the distribution functions. New exact results allow calculating the exact distribution function and other properties of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha, for Gaussian data with any covariance pattern, not just compound symmetry. Probabilities are computed in terms of the distribution function of a weighted sum of independent chi-square random variables. New F approximations for the distribution functions of intraclass correlation and Cronbach's alpha are much simpler and faster to compute than the exact forms. Assuming the covariance matrix is known, the approximations typically provide sufficient accuracy, even with as few as ten observations. Either the exact or approximate distributions may be used to create confidence intervals around an estimate of reliability. Monte Carlo simulations led to a number of conclusions. Correctly assuming that the covariance matrix is compound symmetric leads to accurate confidence intervals, as was expected from previously known results. However, assuming and estimating a general covariance matrix produces somewhat optimistically narrow confidence intervals with 10 observations. Increasing sample size to 100 gives essentially unbiased coverage. Incorrectly assuming compound symmetry leads to pessimistically large confidence intervals, with pessimism increasing with sample size. In contrast, incorrectly assuming general covariance introduces only a modest optimistic bias in small samples. Hence the new methods seem preferable for creating confidence intervals, except when compound symmetry definitely holds.

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model

PubMed Central

Hughes, Barry B; Peterson, Cecilia M; Rothman, Dale S; Solórzano, José R; Mathers, Colin D; Dickson, Janet R

2011-01-01

Abstract Objective To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. Methods The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. Findings The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate−health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. Conclusion Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements. PMID:21734761

Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model.

PubMed

Hughes, Barry B; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia M; Rothman, Dale S; Solórzano, José R; Mathers, Colin D; Dickson, Janet R

2011-07-01

To develop an integrated health forecasting model as part of the International Futures (IFs) modelling system. The IFs model begins with the historical relationships between economic and social development and cause-specific mortality used by the Global Burden of Disease project but builds forecasts from endogenous projections of these drivers by incorporating forward linkages from health outcomes back to inputs like population and economic growth. The hybrid IFs system adds alternative structural formulations for causes not well served by regression models and accounts for changes in proximate health risk factors. Forecasts are made to 2100 but findings are reported to 2060. The base model projects that deaths from communicable diseases (CDs) will decline by 50%, whereas deaths from both non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries will more than double. Considerable cross-national convergence in life expectancy will occur. Climate-induced fluctuations in agricultural yield will cause little excess childhood mortality from CDs, although other climate-health pathways were not explored. An optimistic scenario will produce 39 million fewer deaths in 2060 than a pessimistic one. Our forward linkage model suggests that an optimistic scenario would result in a 20% per cent increase in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, despite one billion additional people. Southern Asia would experience the greatest relative mortality reduction and the largest resulting benefit in per capita GDP. Long-term, integrated health forecasting helps us understand the links between health and other markers of human progress and offers powerful insight into key points of leverage for future improvements.

Strategic prospects of the electric power industry of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarov, A. A.; Veselov, F. V.; Makarova, A. S.; Novikova, T. V.; Pankrushina, T. G.

2017-11-01

The prospects for the development of the electric power industry of Russia adopted at a regular stage of working out the Energy Strategy and the General Plan of Distribution of the Electric Power Facilities are discussed. The monitoring of the progress in the implementation of the Energy Strategies for the periods until 2020 and 2030 adopted in 2003 and 2009 has, in general, validated the correctness of the estimated volumes of the energy resource production under overestimation of the expected domestic demand owing to an excessively optimistic forecast of the real development of the economy. The priority lines of the national energy policy in electric power and allied industries proposed in the Energy Strategy for the period until 2035 are considered. The tools for implementation of most of the proposals and the effectiveness of their implementation have yet to be defined more concretely. The development of the energy sector and the electric power industry under the conservative and optimistic scenarios of the development of the country's economy has been predicted using the SCANER modeling and information system, viz., the dynamics of the domestic consumption, export, and production of the primary energy and the electric power has been determined and the commissioning and structure of the required generating capacities and the consumption of the basic types of the energy resources by the electric power industry and the centralized heat supply systems has been optimized. Changes in the economic efficiency of the nuclear and thermal power plants under the expected improvements on their cost and performance characteristics and an increase in the domestic fuel prices are presented. The competitiveness of the wind and solar power production under Russian conditions has been evaluated considering the necessity of reservation and partial duplication of their capacities when operated in the power supply systems. When optimizing the electric power industry as a subsystem of the country's energy sector, the required amounts of capital investments in the industry have been assessed. Based on the obtained data and the predicted prices of fuel in the main pricing zones of Russia, the ranges of changes in the prices of the electric power in agreement with the macroeconomic restrictions on their dynamics have been calculated.

Population viability analysis to identify management priorities for reintroduced elk in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kindall, J.L.; Muller, L.I.; Clark, J.D.; Lupardus, J.L.; Murrow, J.L.

2011-01-01

We used an individual-based population model to perform a viability analysis to simulate population growth (λ) of 167 elk (Cervus elaphus manitobensis; 71 male and 96 female) released in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee, to estimate sustainability (i.e., λ > 1.0) and identify the most appropriate options for managing elk restoration. We transported elk from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, and from Land Between the Lakes, Kentucky, and reintroduced them beginning in December 2000 and ending in February 2003. We estimated annual survival rates for 156 radio-collared elk from December 2000 until November 2004. We used data from a nearby elk herd in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to simulate pessimistic and optimistic recruitment and performed population viability analyses to evaluate sustainability over a 25-year period. Annual survival averaged 0.799 (Total SE = 0.023). The primary identifiable sources of mortality were poaching, disease from meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis), and accidents (environmental causes and unintentional harvest). Population growth given pessimistic recruitment rates averaged 0.895 over 25 years (0.955 in year 1 to 0.880 in year 25); population growth was not sustainable in 100% of the runs. With the most optimistic estimates of recruitment, mean λ increased to 0.967 (1.038 in year 1 to 0.956 in year 25) with 99.6% of the runs failing to be sustainable. We suggest that further translocation efforts to increase herd size will be ineffective unless survival rates are increased in the Cumberland Mountains.

Empirical evaluation of data normalization methods for molecular classification.

PubMed

Huang, Huei-Chung; Qin, Li-Xuan

2018-01-01

Data artifacts due to variations in experimental handling are ubiquitous in microarray studies, and they can lead to biased and irreproducible findings. A popular approach to correct for such artifacts is through post hoc data adjustment such as data normalization. Statistical methods for data normalization have been developed and evaluated primarily for the discovery of individual molecular biomarkers. Their performance has rarely been studied for the development of multi-marker molecular classifiers-an increasingly important application of microarrays in the era of personalized medicine. In this study, we set out to evaluate the performance of three commonly used methods for data normalization in the context of molecular classification, using extensive simulations based on re-sampling from a unique pair of microRNA microarray datasets for the same set of samples. The data and code for our simulations are freely available as R packages at GitHub. In the presence of confounding handling effects, all three normalization methods tended to improve the accuracy of the classifier when evaluated in an independent test data. The level of improvement and the relative performance among the normalization methods depended on the relative level of molecular signal, the distributional pattern of handling effects (e.g., location shift vs scale change), and the statistical method used for building the classifier. In addition, cross-validation was associated with biased estimation of classification accuracy in the over-optimistic direction for all three normalization methods. Normalization may improve the accuracy of molecular classification for data with confounding handling effects; however, it cannot circumvent the over-optimistic findings associated with cross-validation for assessing classification accuracy.

Migration and Development: A Theoretical Perspective 1

PubMed Central

De Haas, Hein

2010-01-01

The debate on migration and development has swung back and forth like a pendulum, from developmentalist optimism in the 1950s and 1960s, to neo‐Marxist pessimism over the 1970s and 1980s, towards more optimistic views in the 1990s and 2000s. This paper argues how such discursive shifts in the migration and development debate should be primarily seen as part of more general paradigm shifts in social and development theory. However, the classical opposition between pessimistic and optimistic views is challenged by empirical evidence pointing to the heterogeneity of migration impacts. By integrating and amending insights from the new economics of labor migration, livelihood perspectives in development studies and transnational perspectives in migration studies – which share several though as yet unobserved conceptual parallels – this paper elaborates the contours of a conceptual framework that simultaneously integrates agency and structure perspectives and is therefore able to account for the heterogeneous nature of migration‐development interactions. The resulting perspective reveals the naivety of recent views celebrating migration as self‐help development “from below”. These views are largely ideologically driven and shift the attention away from structural constraints and the vital role of states in shaping favorable conditions for positive development impacts of migration to occur. PMID:26900199

Self-Affirmation Moderates Effects of Unrealistic Optimism and Pessimism on Reactions to Tailored Risk Feedback

PubMed Central

Lipkus, Isaac M; Scholl, Sarah; McQueen, Amy; Cerully, Jennifer; Harris, Peter R

2009-01-01

We examined whether self-affirmation would facilitate intentions to engage in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening among individuals who were off-schedule for CRC screening and who were categorized as unrealistically optimistic, realistic, or unrealistically pessimistic about their CRC risk. All participants received tailored risk feedback; in addition, one group received threatening social comparison information regarding their risk factors, a second received this information after a self-affirmation exercise, and a third was a no-treatment control. When participants were unrealistically optimistic about their CRC risk (determined by comparing their perceived comparative risk to calculations from a risk algorithm), they expressed greater interest in screening if they were self-affirmed (relative to controls). Non-affirmed unrealistic optimists expressed lower interest relative to controls, suggesting that they were responding defensively. Realistic participants and unrealistically pessimistic participants who were self-affirmed expressed relatively less interest in CRC screening, suggesting that self-affirmation can be helpful or hurtful depending on the accuracy of one’s risk perceptions. PMID:20204982

[Cancer related fatigue in patients with breast cancer after chemotherapy and coping style].

PubMed

Jiang, Pinglan; Wang, Shuhong; Jiang, Dongmei; Yu, Lingli

2011-04-01

To study the relevance between cancer related fatigue and coping styles in breast cancer patients after chemotherapy. A survey was conducted in 396 patients with breast cancer after chemotherapy on cancer related fatigue scale and Jalowiec coping scale, and the relation was analyzed. The rate of overall fatigue in breast cancer patients was 96.97%, mostly moderate fatigue. The rate of fatigue dimensions from high to low was physical fatigue, feeling fatigue and cognitive fatigue, respectively. The score of coping styles in patients with breast cancer after chemotherapy from high to low was optimistic coping, facing bravely, support seeking, self-reliance, emotional catharsis, avoidance, fatalism, and conservation. The most widely used coping style was optimistic coping style, and the least was emotional catharisis. There was a positive correlation between coping style of emotional catharsis and cancer related fatigue of all dimensions (P<0.01). There was a negative correlation between emotional fatigue and optimistic,facing bravely, support seeking, self-reliance, or conservation (P<0.05). There was also a negative correlation between physical fatigue and optimistic or support seeking (P<0.05), but there was a positive correlation between avoidance or fatalism and the dimensions of general fatigue, physical fatigue, and cognitive fatigue (P<0.05). There is prevalent cancer related fatigue in patients with breast cancer after chemotherapy. We should guide the patients to more active coping styles, to enhance the ability of psychological adaption in patients, reduce cancer related fatigue, and improve the quality of life.

[Ethics and esthetics in international cooperation].

PubMed

de Aranzabal Agudo, Maite; Hermana Tezanos, María Teresa

2011-09-01

Although more optimistic, the new report by the World Health Organization (WHO) continues to cast horrifying statistics on inequalities, not only in life expectancy but in many areas. Many Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) related to medicine seek to address this imbalance. To cooperate does not in any way appeal to the call of sentimentality. Cooperation moves money and is accountable. It requires a strong background in both professional and human values. It requires research on vaccines and diseases foreign to our society. To cooperate means "operate with" local counterparts, according to their needs and global health project. And finally, cooperation implies the demand for change in certain aspects of the global economic order. We reflect on these questions and describe the different ethical frameworks for the population and NGOs. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

The Magnesium Industry Today…The Global Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patzer, Greg

World demand for magnesium will show a decline in 2009. The outlook for 2010, which is guardedly optimistic, will be for a resumption of slow growth. The industry has seen marked changes in the sources of supply for primary and alloyed magnesium in recent years. Technological advances in magnesium continue at a strong pace as does interest in the material as a substitute for other light metals. The automotive segment remains the end-use area with the largest growth potential, if for no other reason than the size and quantity of the potential materials substitution applications. However, the shrinkage of that market, particularly in North America will have a definite impact on expectations for magnesium. The 3C market (computers, communications & consumer electronics) will continue to show above average growth. Other niche markets related to medical and construction industries also offer potential.

The architectural form of Qikou Cave dwellings in Chinese "Earth" culture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xuanchen; Feng, Xinqun

2018-03-01

Cave building is not only a kind of architecture with unique style, but also a manifestation of Chinese traditional culture. Cave culture is an important part of Chinese traditional culture. The main purpose of this thesis which studies the architectural form of Qikou Cave, is to analyze how the cave building plays a positive role in promoting the development and application of modern resources and in cultural transmission. Based on a large amount of literature material, and taking Qikou Cave as an example, by studying the morphological characteristics of cave building, the paper takes an optimistic outlook on its future development and the sustainable development of the resources. It is expected that the cave culture can be further explored to promote the traditional Chinese culture and to drive the development of modern construction industry and resource conservation.

Treatment of hemophilia in the near future.

PubMed

Peyvandi, Flora; Garagiola, Isabella

2015-11-01

Advancements and debacles have characterized hemophilia treatment over the past 50 years. The 1970s saw the availability of plasma-derived concentrates making prophylaxis and home therapy possible. This optimistic perception changed extremely in the early 1980s, when most people with hemophilia were infected with HIV and hepatitis viruses. Then, also in the 1980s, the rapid progress in molecular biology led to the development of recombinant therapeutic products. This important advancement was a huge technological leap fresh off from the earlier 1980s disaster. Now in the 21st century, the newer bioengineering drugs open a new hopeful phase for the management of hemophilia. The current efforts are concentrated on producing novel coagulation factors with prolonged bioavailability, increased potency, and resistance to inactivation and potentially reduced immunogenicity; this phase of evolution is improving very quickly. 2014 is the year of marketing approval by the Food and Drug Administration of the first bioengineered FVIII and FIX long-acting drugs, using Fc-fusion strategy. This represents the first significant advance in the hemophilia therapy that dramatically transforms patient management by substantially reducing the frequency of injections, improving compliance, and simplifying prophylaxis and, in turn, refining the quality of life of hemophilia patients, offering them a nearly normal life expectancy, particularly to newborns with hemophilia B. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Aerosol optical properties inferred from in-situ and path-averaged measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Binsbergen, Sven A.; Grossmann, Peter; Cohen, Leo H.; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Stein, Karin U.

2017-09-01

This paper compares in-situ and path-averaged measurements of the electro-optical transmission, with emphasis on aerosol effects. The in-situ sensors consisted of optical particle counters (OPC) and a visibility meter, the path-averaged data was provided by a 7-wavelength transmissometer (MSRT) and a scintillometer (BLS). Data was collected at a test site in Northern Germany. A retrieval algorithm was developed to infer characteristics of the aerosol size distribution (Junge approximation) from the MSRT data. A comparison of the various sensors suggests that the optical particle counters are over-optimistic in their estimate of the transmission.

The dual impact of antiretroviral therapy and sexual behaviour changes on HIV epidemiologic trends in Uganda: a modelling study.

PubMed

Shafer, Leigh Anne; Nsubuga, Rebecca N; Chapman, Ruth; O'Brien, Katie; Mayanja, Billy N; White, Richard G

2014-08-01

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability in a population may influence risky sexual behaviour. We examine the potential impact of ART on the HIV epidemic, incorporating evidence for the impact that ART may have on risky sexual behaviour. A mathematical model, parameterised using site-specific data from Uganda and worldwide literature review, was used to examine the likely impact of ART on HIV epidemiologic trends. We varied assumptions about rates of initiating ART, and changes in sexual partner turnover rates. Modelling suggests that ART will reduce HIV incidence over 20 years, and increase prevalence. Even in the optimistic scenario of ART enrollment beginning after just five months of infection (in HIV stage 2), prevalence is estimated to rise from a baseline of 10.5% and 8.3% among women and men, respectively, to at least 12.1% and 10.2%, respectively. It will rise further if sexual disinhibition occurs or infectiousness while on ART is slightly higher (2% female to male, rather than 0.5%). The conditions required for ART to reduce prevalence over this period are likely too extreme to be achievable. For example, if ART enrolment begins in HIV stage 1 (within the first 5 months of infection), and if risky sexual behaviour does not increase, then 3 of our 11 top fitting results estimate a potential drop in HIV prevalence by 2025. If sexual risk taking rises, it will have a large additional impact on expected HIV prevalence. Prevalence will rise despite incidence falling, because ART extends life expectancy. HIV prevalence will rise. Even small increases in partner turnover rates will lead to an additional substantial increase in HIV prevalence. Policy makers are urged to continue HIV prevention activities, including promoting sex education, and to be prepared for a higher than previously suggested number of HIV infected people in need of treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Unrealistic optimism and 'nosognosia': illness recognition in the healthy brain.

PubMed

McKay, Ryan; Buchmann, Andreas; Germann, Nicole; Yu, Shancong; Brugger, Peter

2014-12-01

At the centenary of research on anosognosia, the time seems ripe to supplement work in anosognosic patients with empirical studies on nosognosia in healthy participants. To this end, we adopted a signal detection framework to investigate the lateralized recognition of illness words--an operational measure of nosognosia--in healthy participants. As positively biased reports about one's current health status (anosognosia) and future health status (unrealistic optimism) have both been associated with deficient right hemispheric functioning, and conversely with undisturbed left hemispheric functioning, we hypothesised that more optimistic participants would adopt a more conservative response criterion, and/or display less sensitivity, when identifying illnesses in our nosognosia task; especially harmful illnesses presented to the left hemisphere via the right visual field. Thirty-two healthy right-handed men estimated their own relative risk of contracting a series of illnesses in the future, and then completed a novel computer task assessing their recognition of illness names presented to the left or right visual field. To check that effects were specific to the recognition of illness (rather than reflecting recognition of lexical items per se), we also administered a standard lateralized lexical decision task. Highly optimistic participants tended to be more conservative in detecting illnesses, especially harmful illnesses presented to the right visual field. Contrary to expectation, they were also more sensitive to illness names in this half-field. We suggest that, in evolutionary terms, unrealistic optimism may be an adaptive trait that combines a high perceptual sensitivity to threat with a high threshold for acknowledging its presence. The signal detection approach to nosognosia developed here may open up new avenues for the understanding of anosognosia in neurological patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Would vaccination against nicotine be a cost-effective way to prevent smoking uptake in adolescents?

PubMed

Gartner, Coral E; Barendregt, Jan J; Wallace, Angela; Hall, Wayne D

2012-04-01

We used epidemiological modelling to assess whether nicotine vaccines would be a cost-effective way of preventing smoking uptake in adolescents. We built an epidemiological model using Australian data on age-specific smoking prevalence; smoking cessation and relapse rates; life-time sex-specific disability-adjusted life years lived for cohorts of 100,000 smokers and non-smokers; government data on the costs of delivering a vaccination programme by general practitioners; and a range of plausible and optimistic estimates of vaccine cost, efficacy and immune response rates based on clinical trial results. We first estimated the smoking uptake rates for Australians aged 12-19 years. We then used these estimates to predict the expected smoking prevalence in a birth cohort aged 12 in 2003 by age 20 under (i) current policy and (ii) different vaccination scenarios that varied in cost, initial vaccination uptake, yearly re-vaccination rates, efficacy and a favourable vaccine immune response rate. Under the most optimistic assumptions, the cost to avert a smoker at age 20 was $44,431 [95% confidence interval (CI) $40,023-49,250]. This increased to $296,019 (95% CI $252,307-$355,930) under more plausible scenarios. The vaccine programme was not cost-effective under any scenario. A preventive nicotine vaccination programme is unlikely to be cost-effective. The total cost of a universal vaccination programme would be high and its impact on population smoking prevalence negligible. For these reasons, such a programme is unlikely to be publicly funded in Australia or any other developed country. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Effects of future climate and land use scenarios on riverine source water quality.

PubMed

Delpla, Ianis; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2014-09-15

Surface water quality is particularly sensitive to land use practices and climatic events that affect its catchment. The relative influence of a set of watershed characteristics (climate, land use, morphology and pedology) and climatic variables on two key water quality parameters (turbidity and fecal coliforms (FC)) was examined in 24 eastern Canadian catchments at various spatial scales (1 km, 5 km, 10 km and the entire catchment). A regression analysis revealed that the entire catchment was a better predictor of water quality. Based on this information, linear mixed effect models for predicting turbidity and FC levels were developed. A set of land use and climate scenarios was considered and applied within the water quality models. Four land use scenarios (no change, same rate of variation, optimistic and pessimistic) and three climate change scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) were tested and variations for the near future (2025) were assessed and compared to the reference period (2000). Climate change impacts on water quality remained low annually for this time horizon (turbidity: +1.5%, FC: +1.6%, A2 scenario). On the other hand, the influence of land use changes appeared to predominate. Significant benefits for both parameters could be expected following the optimistic scenario (turbidity: -16.4%, FC: -6.3%; p < 0.05). However, pessimistic land use scenario led to significant increases on an annual basis (turbidity: +11.6%, FC: +15.2%; p < 0.05). Additional simulations conducted for the late 21st century (2090) revealed that climate change impacts could become equivalent to those modeled for land use for this horizon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Black holes at neutrino telescopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kowalski, M.; Ringwald, A.; Tu, H.

2002-03-01

In scenarios with extra dimensions and TeV-scale quantum gravity, black holes are expected to be produced in the collision of light particles at center-of-mass energies above the fundamental Planck scale with small impact parameters. Black hole production and evaporation may thus be studied in detail at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). But even before the LHC starts operating, neutrino telescopes such as AMANDA/IceCube, ANTARES, Baikal, and RICE have an opportunity to search for black hole signatures. Black hole production in the scattering of ultrahigh energy cosmic neutrinos on nucleons in the ice or water may initiate cascades and through-going muons with distinct characteristics above the Standard Model rate. In this Letter, we investigate the sensitivity of neutrino telescopes to black hole production and compare it to the one expected at the Pierre Auger Observatory, an air shower array currently under construction, and at the LHC. We find that, already with the currently available data, AMANDA and RICE should be able to place sensible constraints in black hole production parameter space, which are competitive with the present ones from the air shower facilities Fly's Eye and AGASA. In the optimistic case that a ultrahigh energy cosmic neutrino flux significantly higher than the one expected from cosmic ray interactions with the cosmic microwave background radiation is realized in nature, one even has discovery potential for black holes at neutrino telescopes beyond the reach of LHC.

Older individuals' experiences during the assistive technology device service delivery process.

PubMed

Gramstad, Astrid; Storli, Sissel Lisa; Hamran, Torunn

2014-07-01

Providing assistive technology devices to older individuals living in their ordinary homes is an important intervention to increase and sustain independence and to enable ageing at home. However, little is known about older individuals' experiences and needs in the assistive technology device (ATD) service delivery process. The purpose of this study was to investigate older individuals' experiences during the service delivery process of ATDs. Nine older individuals were interviewed three times each throughout the ATD service delivery process. The interviews were analysed within a hermeneutical phenomenological perspective. The results show that the service delivery process could be interpreted as an enigmatic journey and described using four themes: "hope and optimistic expectations", "managing after delivery or needing additional help", "having available help versus being abandoned", and "taking charge or putting up". The results emphasize the need for occupational therapists to maintain an individualized approach towards older clients throughout the service delivery process. The experiences of older individuals were diverse and related to expectations that were not necessarily articulated to the occupational therapist. The situation when the ATD is delivered to the client was highlighted by the clients as an important event with the potential to facilitate a successful service delivery process.

Efficient Fair Exchange from Identity-Based Signature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yum, Dae Hyun; Lee, Pil Joong

A fair exchange scheme is a protocol by which two parties Alice and Bob exchange items or services without allowing either party to gain advantages by quitting prematurely or otherwise misbehaving. To this end, modern cryptographic solutions use a semi-trusted arbitrator who involves only in cases where one party attempts to cheat or simply crashes. We call such a fair exchange scheme optimistic. When no registration is required between the signer and the arbitrator, we say that the fair exchange scheme is setup free. To date, the setup-free optimist fair exchange scheme under the standard RSA assumption was only possible from the generic construction of [12], which uses ring signatures. In this paper, we introduce a new setup-free optimistic fair exchange scheme under the standard RSA assumption. Our scheme uses the GQ identity-based signature and is more efficient than [12]. The construction can also be generalized by using various identity-based signature schemes. Our main technique is to allow each user to choose his (or her) own “random” public key in the identitybased signature scheme.

Empirical evaluation of data normalization methods for molecular classification

PubMed Central

Huang, Huei-Chung

2018-01-01

Background Data artifacts due to variations in experimental handling are ubiquitous in microarray studies, and they can lead to biased and irreproducible findings. A popular approach to correct for such artifacts is through post hoc data adjustment such as data normalization. Statistical methods for data normalization have been developed and evaluated primarily for the discovery of individual molecular biomarkers. Their performance has rarely been studied for the development of multi-marker molecular classifiers—an increasingly important application of microarrays in the era of personalized medicine. Methods In this study, we set out to evaluate the performance of three commonly used methods for data normalization in the context of molecular classification, using extensive simulations based on re-sampling from a unique pair of microRNA microarray datasets for the same set of samples. The data and code for our simulations are freely available as R packages at GitHub. Results In the presence of confounding handling effects, all three normalization methods tended to improve the accuracy of the classifier when evaluated in an independent test data. The level of improvement and the relative performance among the normalization methods depended on the relative level of molecular signal, the distributional pattern of handling effects (e.g., location shift vs scale change), and the statistical method used for building the classifier. In addition, cross-validation was associated with biased estimation of classification accuracy in the over-optimistic direction for all three normalization methods. Conclusion Normalization may improve the accuracy of molecular classification for data with confounding handling effects; however, it cannot circumvent the over-optimistic findings associated with cross-validation for assessing classification accuracy. PMID:29666754

Aiming to be a breastfeeding mother in a neonatal intensive care unit and at home: a thematic analysis of peer-support group discussion in social media.

PubMed

Niela-Vilén, Hannakaisa; Axelin, Anna; Melender, Hanna-Leena; Salanterä, Sanna

2015-10-01

Preterm infants are usually breastfed less than full-term infants, and successful breastfeeding requires a supportive environment and special efforts from their mothers. A breastfeeding peer-support group, utilising social media, was developed for these mothers in order to support them in this challenge. Mothers were able to discuss breastfeeding and share experiences. The purpose of this study was to describe the perceptions of breastfeeding mothers of preterm infants based on the postings in peer-support group discussions in social media. The actively participating mothers (n = 22) had given birth <35 gestational weeks. They were recruited from one university hospital in Finland. The social media postings (n = 305) were analysed using thematic analysis. A description of the process of breastfeeding a preterm infant from the point of view of a mother was created. The process consisted of three main themes: the breastfeeding paradox in hospital, the 'reality check' of breastfeeding at home and the breastfeeding experience as part of being a mother. The mothers encountered paradoxical elements in the support received in hospital; discharge was promoted at the expense of breastfeeding and pumping breast milk was emphasised over breastfeeding. After the infant's discharge, the over-optimistic expectations of mothers often met with reality - mothers did not have the knowledge or skills to manage breastfeeding at home. Successful breastfeeding was an empowering experience for the mothers, whereas unsuccessful breastfeeding induced feelings of disappointment. Therefore, the mothers of preterm infants need evidence-based breastfeeding counselling and systematic support in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) and at home. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Growing Nurse Leaders: Their Perspectives on Nursing Leadership and Today’s Practice Environment

PubMed

Dyess, Susan M; Sherman, Rose O; Pratt, Beth A; Chiang-Hanisko, Lenny

2016-01-14

With the growing complexity of healthcare practice environments and pending nurse leader retirements, the development of future nurse leaders is increasingly important. This article reports on focus group research conducted with Generation Y nurses prior to their initiating coursework in a Master’s Degree program designed to support development of future nurse leaders. Forty-four emerging nurse leaders across three program cohorts participated in this qualitative study conducted to capture perspectives about nursing leaders and leadership. Conventional content analysis was used to analyze and code the data into categories. We discuss the three major categories identified, including: idealistic expectations of leaders, leading in a challenging practice environment, and cautious but optimistic outlook about their own leadership and future, and study limitations. The conclusion offers implications for future nurse leader development. The findings provide important insight into the viewpoints of nurses today about leaders and leadership.

Field survey analysis of the public's cognition on the new energy industry in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Q. F.; Song, Y.

2016-08-01

The public enjoy an important role in the development of China's new energy industry. However, the role has not attracted sufficient attention. By the way of field investigation, the paper acquired the first hand data of the public cognition on the China's new energy industry. Survey data showed that the public enjoyed awareness of China's new energy industry to some extent. And the public had optimistic expectations on the future development of new energy industry. Moreover, there were obvious differences in the degree of public's familiarity with different new energy varieties. The education level and age of the individual public had a significant impact on his awareness of China's new energy industry. To raise public participation in China's new energy industry, it entailed highlighting the status of the public in China's new energy industry, increasing the publicity of the new energy industry with different measures for different types of public group.

Current characteristics, challenges and coping strategies of young people with cystic fibrosis as they transition to adulthood.

PubMed

Askew, Kristina; Bamford, Jade; Hudson, Nicholas; Moratelli, Juliana; Miller, Rachel; Anderson, Alan; Doe, Simon; Bourke, Stephen J

2017-04-01

This study provides detailed data on the current characteristics, perceptions and outcomes of 45 young people with cystic fibrosis (CF) as they transition into adulthood. Although many had severe disease, they generally coped well, found attendance at a transition clinic helpful and welcomed the increased independence of an adult healthcare environment. Levels of psychological distress were low with only 15.6% having anxiety and 6.7% depression. The main psychological coping strategy used was optimistic acceptance. Overall, most remained stable after transfer but 33% had some decline in lung function and 9% in nutritional status, requiring intensification of treatment. They had high levels of satisfaction with their relationships and life situations and 76% were in employment or education. These results are encouraging and as life expectancy improves, young adults with CF are coping well with transition into adulthood. © Royal College of Physicians 2017. All rights reserved.

How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality.

PubMed

Sharot, Tali; Korn, Christoph W; Dolan, Raymond J

2011-10-09

Unrealistic optimism is a pervasive human trait that influences domains ranging from personal relationships to politics and finance. How people maintain unrealistic optimism, despite frequently encountering information that challenges those biased beliefs, is unknown. We examined this question and found a marked asymmetry in belief updating. Participants updated their beliefs more in response to information that was better than expected than to information that was worse. This selectivity was mediated by a relative failure to code for errors that should reduce optimism. Distinct regions of the prefrontal cortex tracked estimation errors when those called for positive update, both in individuals who scored high and low on trait optimism. However, highly optimistic individuals exhibited reduced tracking of estimation errors that called for negative update in right inferior prefrontal gyrus. These findings indicate that optimism is tied to a selective update failure and diminished neural coding of undesirable information regarding the future.

Innate spatial-temporal reasoning and the identification of genius.

PubMed

Peterson, Matthew R; Balzarini, Doreen; Bodner, Mark; Jones, Edward G; Phillips, Tiffany; Richardson, Debra; Shaw, Gordon L

2004-01-01

The teaching of mathematics is invariably language-based, but spatial-temporal (ST) reasoning (making a mental image and thinking ahead in space and time) is crucial to the understanding of math. Here we report that Big Seed, a demanding ST video game, based upon the mathematics of knot theory and previously applied to understanding DNA structure and function, can be used to reveal innate ST reasoning. Big Seed studies with middle and elementary school children provide strong evidence that ST reasoning ability is not only innate but far exceeds optimistic expectations based on age, the percentage of children achieving exceptional ST performance in less than 7 h of training, and retention of ability. A third grader has been identified as a genius (functionally defined) in ST performance. Big Seed may be used for training and assessing 'creativity' (functionally defined) and ST reasoning as well as discovering genius.

Vacuum birefringence detection in all-optical scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ataman, Stefan

2018-06-01

In this paper we propose an all-optical vacuum birefringence experiment and evaluate its feasibility for various scenarios. Many petawatt-class lasers became operational and many more are expected to enter operation in the near future, therefore unprecedented electromagnetic fields (EL˜1014-1015 V/m and intensities IL˜1021-1023W/cm 2 ) will become available for experiments. In our proposal a petawatt-class laser disturbs the quantum vacuum and creates a delay in a counterpropagating probe laser beam. Placing this delayed beam in one arm of a Mach-Zehnder interferometer (MZI), allows the measurement of the vacuum refraction coefficient via a phase shift. Coherent as well as squeezed light are both considered and the minimum phase sensitivity evaluated. We show that using existing technology with some moderately optimistic assumptions, at least part of the discussed scenarios are feasible for a vacuum birefringence detection experiment.

Evaluation of the Long-Term Stability and Temperature Coefficient of Dew-Point Hygrometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benyon, R.; Vicente, T.; Hernández, P.; De Rivas, L.; Conde, F.

2012-09-01

The continuous quest for improved specifications of optical dew-point hygrometers has raised customer expectations on the performance of these devices. In the absence of a long calibration history, users with a limited prior experience in the measurement of humidity, place reliance on manufacturer specifications to estimate long-term stability. While this might be reasonable in the case of measurement of electrical quantities, in humidity it can lead to optimistic estimations of uncertainty. This article reports a study of the long-term stability of some hygrometers and the analysis of their performance as monitored through regular calibration. The results of the investigations provide some typical, realistic uncertainties associated with the long-term stability of instruments used in calibration and testing laboratories. Together, these uncertainties can help in establishing initial contributions in uncertainty budgets, as well as in setting the minimum calibration requirements, based on the evaluation of dominant influence quantities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heath, Jason E.; Bauer, Stephen J.; Broome, Scott Thomas

The Iowa Stored Energy Plant Agency selected a geologic structure at Dallas Center, Iowa, for evaluation of subsurface compressed air energy storage. The site was rejected due to lower-than-expected and heterogeneous permeability of the target reservoir, lower-than-desired porosity, and small reservoir volume. In an initial feasibility study, permeability and porosity distributions of flow units for the nearby Redfield gas storage field were applied as analogue values for numerical modeling of the Dallas Center Structure. These reservoir data, coupled with an optimistic reservoir volume, produced favorable results. However, it was determined that the Dallas Center Structure cannot be simplified to fourmore » zones of high, uniform permeabilities. Updated modeling using field and core data for the site provided unfavorable results for air fill-up. This report presents Sandia National Laboratories petrologic and petrophysical analysis of the Dallas Center Structure that aids in understanding why the site was not suitable for gas storage.« less

The Queensland "drinker" and the bad old, new Australia.

PubMed

Price, J

1987-11-02

Queensland "drinkers" in rehabilitation units have been compared with their counterparts on Merseyside, England. Substantial differences were found between the two populations: more drinkers in Queensland were divorced or separated, fewer were employed and far fewer expected to return to their families after discharge from the units. Queensland families were reported as more often unaware of the drinking, more rejecting and less concerned. Where the drinker was still living with family members, they were less aware of alcohol-related physical symptoms and put less pressure on the drinker to eat properly. Information that was provided by Queensland family members about a drinker's eating behaviour could be interpreted as indicative of an optimistic response style. Underinvolvement and optimism are put forward as characteristics of Queensland families where one member is a problem drinker. These characteristics are likely to have an adverse effect on the resolution of problem drinking.

Profile of a leader. Mary Agnes Snively: realistic optimist.

PubMed

Mansell, D

1999-01-01

This paper examines the leadership Mary Agnes Snively gave to Canadian nursing during the late-nineteenth and early-twentieth century with a particular focus on her practical views regarding nursing education. Although surrounded by the Victorian values of her day, Snively developed a vision of nursing education that was both optimistic and realistic. This investigation of Snively's ideas as they were articulated in papers she presented to the American Society of Superintendents of Training Schools for Nurses in 1895 and 1898, is further testament to the validity of the accolade, "Mother of Nurses in Canada," given her in 1924 by her biographer.

What is unrealistic optimism?

PubMed

Jefferson, Anneli; Bortolotti, Lisa; Kuzmanovic, Bojana

2017-04-01

Here we consider the nature of unrealistic optimism and other related positive illusions. We are interested in whether cognitive states that are unrealistically optimistic are belief states, whether they are false, and whether they are epistemically irrational. We also ask to what extent unrealistically optimistic cognitive states are fixed. Based on the classic and recent empirical literature on unrealistic optimism, we offer some preliminary answers to these questions, thereby laying the foundations for answering further questions about unrealistic optimism, such as whether it has biological, psychological, or epistemic benefits. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased latencies to respond in a judgment bias test are not associated with pessimistic biases in rats.

PubMed

Barker, Timothy Hugh; Howarth, Gordon Stanley; Whittaker, Alexandra Louise

2018-01-01

Extinction of learning is a common, yet under-reported limitation of judgment bias testing methods Repeated exposure to the ambiguous probe of a judgment bias paradigm encourages the animal to cease display of the required behaviours. However, there remains a need to repeatedly test animals to achieve statistical power. A delicate balance therefore needs to be struck between over- and under-exposure of the animals to the test conditions. This study presents the data of rats, a common animal subject of judgment bias testing. Rats were exposed to the ambiguous probe of a common, active-choice judgment bias test for 11 consecutive days. There was a significant increase in the latency to respond to the ambiguous probe following day 8, with no significant increase experienced for either the positive or less-positive probes. Following day 8 there was a significant increase in both optimistic and pessimistic latencies in response to the ambiguous probe. Therefore, repeated exposure to the ambiguous probe caused an increased latency in response even though optimistic interpretations were recorded. This implies that the use of response latency alone as a measure in judgment bias testing can falsely identify pessimism. Researchers should modify experimental design to include both choice and latency measures. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Greed, fear and stock market dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhoff, Frank H.

2004-11-01

We present a behavioral stock market model in which traders are driven by greed and fear. In general, the agents optimistically believe in rising markets and thus buy stocks. But if stock prices change too abruptly, they panic and sell stocks. Our model mimics some stylized facts of stock market dynamics: (1) stock prices increase over time, (2) stock markets sometimes crash, (3) stock prices show little pair correlation between successive daily changes, and (4) periods of low volatility alternate with periods of high volatility. A strong feature of the model is that stock prices completely evolve according to a deterministic low-dimensional nonlinear law of motion.

Does capitated contracting improve efficiency? Evidence from California hospitals.

PubMed

Chu, Hsuan-Lien; Liu, Shuen-Zen; Romeis, James C

2004-01-01

This study examines the effect of capitated contracting on hospital efficiency to better understand strategies related to the recent financial crisis in the California health care market. Our findings indicate that less efficient hospitals are more likely to participate in capitated contracting. As a result, hospitals with capitated contracts are, on average, less efficient than hospitals without capitated contracts. Hospital efficiency generally increases with respect to the degree of capitation involvement. The efficiency improvement, however, becomes insignificant when capitation exposures are already high. Thus, hospital executives should not be overly optimistic about efficiency gains obtained in capitated contracting and should control the degree of capitation involvement.

Gut-Brain Cross-Talk in Metabolic Control

PubMed Central

Clemmensen, Christoffer; Müller, Timo D.; Woods, Stephen C.; Berthoud, Hans-Rudolf; Seeley, Randy J.; Tschöp, Matthias H.

2018-01-01

Because human energy metabolism evolved to favor adiposity over leanness, the availability of palatable, easily attainable, and calorically dense foods has led to unprecedented levels of obesity and its associated metabolic co-morbidities that appear resistant to traditional lifestyle interventions. However, recent progress identifying the molecular signaling pathways through which the brain and the gastrointestinal system communicate to govern energy homeostasis, combined with emerging insights on the molecular mechanisms underlying successful bariatric surgery, gives reason to be optimistic that novel precision medicines that mimic, enhance, and/or modulate gut-brain signaling can have unprecedented potential for stopping the obesity and type 2 diabetes pandemics. PMID:28235194

Alan Stone and the ethics of forensic psychiatry: an overview.

PubMed

Miller, Glenn H

2008-01-01

In 1982, Alan Stone presented a keynote speech at the Annual Meeting of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law (AAPL) on the ethics of forensic psychiatry. That speech was sharply critical of the prevailing ethics standards and led forensic psychiatrists to study his ideas carefully. A quarter-century later, he returned to the AAPL's Annual Meeting to present his current thinking. This overview outlines the development of Stone's thought over 25 years and the dialectic among Stone and three critics: Paul Appelbaum, Ezra Griffith, and Stephen Morse. Stone is now more optimistic about the possibility of developing an ethic for forensic psychiatry.

Ten quick tips for machine learning in computational biology.

PubMed

Chicco, Davide

2017-01-01

Machine learning has become a pivotal tool for many projects in computational biology, bioinformatics, and health informatics. Nevertheless, beginners and biomedical researchers often do not have enough experience to run a data mining project effectively, and therefore can follow incorrect practices, that may lead to common mistakes or over-optimistic results. With this review, we present ten quick tips to take advantage of machine learning in any computational biology context, by avoiding some common errors that we observed hundreds of times in multiple bioinformatics projects. We believe our ten suggestions can strongly help any machine learning practitioner to carry on a successful project in computational biology and related sciences.

CASH 2021: commercial access and space habitation.

PubMed

Aldrin, Andrew; Amara, Adam; Aris, Lodewijk; Baierl, Nida; Beatty, Patrick; Beaulieu, Catherine; Behnke, Torsten; Castegini, Roberta; Chauhan, Amitabh; Cojanis, Philip; Dayawansa, Pelawa; Diop, Marie; Eito, Kinya; Engle, Steve; Feretti, Stefano; Gassama, Hamet; Genova, Bojana; Goulding, Colin; Janjua, Jameel; Jansaeng, Thidarat; Jousset, Frederic; Kopik, Anatoly; Laurin, Catherine; Leggatt, Jason; Li, Hengnian; Mezzadri, Monica; Miura, Amane; Nolet, Simon; Ogami, Satoshi; Patry, Johanne; Patten, Laryssa; Payerne, Cyril; Peer, Guy; Prampolini, Marco; Rheaume, Caroline; Saary, Joan; Spehar, Daniela; Sufi, Atiya; Sun, Baosheng; Thompson, J Barry; Thomson, Ward; Trautner, Roland; Tursunmuratov, Murat; Venet, Vrata; Wilems, Elizabeth; Wilson, Helen; Wittwer, Karl; Wokke, Frank; Wu, Yansheng; Zhou, Shaobin; Zilioli, Ilaria

2002-01-01

Issues about commercialization of space have been a growing concern in the past decade for the space community. This paper focuses on the work from a team of 51 students attending the Summer Session Program of the International Space University in Bremen, Germany. CASH 2021 (Commercial Access and Space Habitation) documents a plan that identifies commercial opportunities for space utilization that will extend human presence in space, and will chart the way forward for the next 20 years. The group selected four commercial sectors that show the most promise for the future: tourism, entertainment, space system service, assembly and debris removal, and research and development/production. The content of this document presents the results of their research. Historical activities in each of the commercial sectors are reviewed along with the current market situation. To provide a coherent background for future commercialization possibilities a scenario has been developed. This scenario includes a postulated upon ideal future and includes social, political and economic factors that may affect the space industry over the timeline of the study. The study also presents a roadmap, within the limited optimistic scenario developed, for the successful commercialization of space leading to future human presence in space. A broad range of commercially viable opportunities, not only within the current limits of the International Space Station, but also among the many new developments that are expected by 2021 are discussed. c2002 International Astronautical Federation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Delusions of success. How optimism undermines executives' decisions.

PubMed

Lovallo, Dan; Kahneman, Daniel

2003-07-01

The evidence is disturbingly clear: Most major business initiatives--mergers and acquisitions, capital investments, market entries--fail to ever pay off. Economists would argue that the low success rate reflects a rational assessment of risk, with the returns from a few successes outweighing the losses of many failures. But two distinguished scholars of decision making, Dan Lovallo of the University of New South Wales and Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman of Princeton University, provide a very different explanation. They show that a combination of cognitive biases (including anchoring and competitor neglect) and organizational pressures lead managers to make overly optimistic forecasts in analyzing proposals for major investments. By exaggerating the likely benefits of a project and ignoring the potential pitfalls, they lead their organizations into initiatives that are doomed to fall well short of expectations. The biases and pressures cannot be escaped, the authors argue, but they can be tempered by applying a very different method of forecasting--one that takes a much more objective "outside view" of an initiative's likely outcome. This outside view, also known as reference-class forecasting, completely ignores the details of the project at hand; instead, it encourages managers to examine the experiences of a class of similar projects, to lay out a rough distribution of outcomes for this reference class, and then to position the current project in that distribution. The outside view is more likely than the inside view to produce accurate forecasts--and much less likely to deliver highly unrealistic ones, the authors say.

The need to approximate the use-case in clinical machine learning

PubMed Central

Saeb, Sohrab; Jayaraman, Arun; Mohr, David C.; Kording, Konrad P.

2017-01-01

Abstract The availability of smartphone and wearable sensor technology is leading to a rapid accumulation of human subject data, and machine learning is emerging as a technique to map those data into clinical predictions. As machine learning algorithms are increasingly used to support clinical decision making, it is vital to reliably quantify their prediction accuracy. Cross-validation (CV) is the standard approach where the accuracy of such algorithms is evaluated on part of the data the algorithm has not seen during training. However, for this procedure to be meaningful, the relationship between the training and the validation set should mimic the relationship between the training set and the dataset expected for the clinical use. Here we compared two popular CV methods: record-wise and subject-wise. While the subject-wise method mirrors the clinically relevant use-case scenario of diagnosis in newly recruited subjects, the record-wise strategy has no such interpretation. Using both a publicly available dataset and a simulation, we found that record-wise CV often massively overestimates the prediction accuracy of the algorithms. We also conducted a systematic review of the relevant literature, and found that this overly optimistic method was used by almost half of the retrieved studies that used accelerometers, wearable sensors, or smartphones to predict clinical outcomes. As we move towards an era of machine learning-based diagnosis and treatment, using proper methods to evaluate their accuracy is crucial, as inaccurate results can mislead both clinicians and data scientists. PMID:28327985

A cross-sectional study of patient and provider perception of "cure" as a goal of cancer surgery.

PubMed

Winner, Megan; Wilson, Ana; Yahanda, Alexander; Kim, Yuhree; Pawlik, Timothy M

2016-11-01

Patients with advanced cancer often misperceive the purpose and likely effectiveness of cancer treatments. The aim of this study was to characterize patient and provider perceptions in the setting of surgery for potentially curable cancer. One hundred and six patient-surgeon dyads were surveyed about their expectations for upcoming surgery. Items scored using a Likert scale were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Patients and surgeons reported excellent communication and shared decision-making. Patients more often than surgeons perceived that surgery was "Likely" or "Very Likely" to cure their cancer (86.0% vs. 72.0%, P = 0.011), extend their lives (94.0% vs. 82.0%, P = 0.007), and relieve cancer-related symptoms (65.0% vs. 35.0%, P < 0.001). Patients less often felt that surgery would be associated with complications (33.0% vs. 48.0%, P = 0.016). Over half (53.9%) of patients believed that they were more likely to experience surgical cancer cure compared with someone else with the same diagnosis while 70.8% of surgeons declared a patient's relative chances of surgical cure "the same." Patients with resectable lung and gastrointestinal cancers have more optimistic perceptions about the outcomes of an upcoming surgery than their surgeons, even in a setting of good communication and shared decision-making. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:677-683. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Stimulating neuroregeneration as a therapeutic drug approach for traumatic brain injury

PubMed Central

Mueller, Bernhard K; Mueller, Reinhold; Schoemaker, Hans

2009-01-01

Traumatic brain injury, a silent epidemic of modern societies, is a largely neglected area in drug development and no drug is currently available for the treatment of patients suffering from brain trauma. Despite this grim situation, much progress has been made over the last two decades in closely related medical indications, such as spinal cord injury, giving rise to a more optimistic approach to drug development in brain trauma. Fundamental insights have been gained with animal models of central nervous system (CNS) trauma and spinal cord injury. Neuroregenerative drug candidates have been identified and two of these have progressed to clinical development for spinal cord injury patients. If successful, these drug candidates may be used to treat brain trauma patients. Significant progress has also been made in understanding the fundamental molecular mechanism underlying irreversible axonal growth arrest in the injured CNS of higher mammals. From these studies, we have learned that the axonal retraction bulb, previously regarded as a marker for failure of regenerative growth, is not static but dynamic and, therefore, amenable to pharmacotherapeutic approaches. With the development of modified magnetic resonance imaging methods, fibre tracts can be visualised in the living human brain and such imaging methods will soon be used to evaluate the neuroregenerative potential of drug candidates. These significant advances are expected to fundamentally change the often hopeless situation of brain trauma patients and will be the first step towards overcoming the silent epidemic of brain injury. PMID:19422372

Renal denervation for the treatment of resistant hypertension: review and clinical perspective

PubMed Central

Iliescu, Radu; Lohmeier, Thomas E.; Tudorancea, Ionut; Laffin, Luke

2015-01-01

When introduced clinically 6 years ago, renal denervation was thought to be the solution for all patients whose blood pressure could not be controlled by medication. The initial two studies, SYMPLICITY HTN-1 and HTN-2, demonstrated great magnitudes of blood pressure reduction within 6 mo of the procedure and were based on a number of assumptions that may not have been true, including strict adherence to medication and absence of white-coat hypertension. The SYMPLICITY HTN-3 trial controlled for all possible factors believed to influence the outcome, including the addition of a sham arm, and ultimately proved the demise of the initial overly optimistic expectations. This trial yielded a much lower blood pressure reduction compared with the previous SYMPLICITY trials. Since its publication in 2014, there have been many analyses to try and understand what accounted for the differences. Of all the variables examined that could influence blood pressure outcomes, the extent of the denervation procedure was determined to be inadequate. Beyond this, the physiological mechanisms that account for the heterogeneous fall in arterial pressure following renal denervation remain unclear, and experimental studies indicate dependence on more than simply reduced renal sympathetic activity. These and other related issues are discussed in this paper. Our perspective is that renal denervation works if done properly and used in the appropriate patient population. New studies with new approaches and catheters and appropriate controls will be starting later this year to reassess the efficacy and safety of renal denervation in humans. PMID:26224718

Assumptions of expected benefits in randomized phase III trials evaluating systemic treatments for cancer.

PubMed

Gan, Hui K; You, Benoit; Pond, Gregory R; Chen, Eric X

2012-04-18

In designing phase III randomized clinical trials (RCTs), the expected magnitude of the benefit of the experimental therapy (δ) determines the number of patients required and the number of person-years of follow-up. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate how reliably δ approximates the observed benefit (B) in RCTs that evaluated cancer treatment. RCTs evaluating systemic therapy in adult cancer patients published in 10 journals from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2009, were identified. Data were extracted from each publication independently by two investigators. The related-samples Sign test was used to determine whether the median difference between δ and B was statistically significant in different study subsets and was two-sided. A total of 253 RCTs met the eligibility criteria and were included in the analysis. Regardless of whether benefit was defined as proportional change (median difference between δ and B = -13.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -21.0% to -8.0%), absolute change (median difference between δ and B = -8.0%, 95% CI = -9.9% to -5.1%), or median increase in a time-to-event endpoint (median difference between δ and B = -1.4 months, 95% CI = -2.1 to -0.8 months), δ was consistently and statistically significantly larger than B (P < .001, for each, respectively). This relationship between δ and B was independent of year of publication, industry funding, management by cooperative trial groups, type of control arm, type of experimental arm, disease site, adjuvant treatment, or treatment for advanced disease, and likely contributed to the high proportion of negative RCTs (158 [62.5%] of 253 studies). Investigators consistently make overly optimistic assumptions regarding treatment benefits when designing RCTs. Attempts to reduce the number of negative RCTs should focus on more realistic estimations of δ. Increased use of interim analyses, certain adaptive trial designs, and better biological characterization of patients are potential ways of mitigating this problem.

A balanced solution to the cumulative threat of industrialized wind farm development on cinereous vultures (Aegypius monachus) in south-eastern Europe.

PubMed

Vasilakis, Dimitris P; Whitfield, D Philip; Kati, Vassiliki

2017-01-01

Wind farm development can combat climate change but may also threaten bird populations' persistence through collision with wind turbine blades if such development is improperly planned strategically and cumulatively. Such improper planning may often occur. Numerous wind farms are planned in a region hosting the only cinereous vulture population in south-eastern Europe. We combined range use modelling and a Collision Risk Model (CRM) to predict the cumulative collision mortality for cinereous vulture under all operating and proposed wind farms. Four different vulture avoidance rates were considered in the CRM. Cumulative collision mortality was expected to be eight to ten times greater in the future (proposed and operating wind farms) than currently (operating wind farms), equivalent to 44% of the current population (103 individuals) if all proposals are authorized (2744 MW). Even under the most optimistic scenario whereby authorized proposals will not collectively exceed the national target for wind harnessing in the study area (960 MW), cumulative collision mortality would still be high (17% of current population) and likely lead to population extinction. Under any wind farm proposal scenario, over 92% of expected deaths would occur in the core area of the population, further implying inadequate spatial planning and implementation of relevant European legislation with scant regard for governmental obligations to protect key species. On the basis of a sensitivity map we derive a spatially explicit solution that could meet the national target of wind harnessing with a minimum conservation cost of less than 1% population loss providing that the population mortality (5.2%) caused by the operating wind farms in the core area would be totally mitigated. Under other scenarios, the vulture population would probably be at serious risk of extinction. Our 'win-win' approach is appropriate to other potential conflicts where wind farms may cumulatively threaten wildlife populations.

A balanced solution to the cumulative threat of industrialized wind farm development on cinereous vultures (Aegypius monachus) in south-eastern Europe

PubMed Central

Whitfield, D. Philip; Kati, Vassiliki

2017-01-01

Wind farm development can combat climate change but may also threaten bird populations’ persistence through collision with wind turbine blades if such development is improperly planned strategically and cumulatively. Such improper planning may often occur. Numerous wind farms are planned in a region hosting the only cinereous vulture population in south-eastern Europe. We combined range use modelling and a Collision Risk Model (CRM) to predict the cumulative collision mortality for cinereous vulture under all operating and proposed wind farms. Four different vulture avoidance rates were considered in the CRM. Cumulative collision mortality was expected to be eight to ten times greater in the future (proposed and operating wind farms) than currently (operating wind farms), equivalent to 44% of the current population (103 individuals) if all proposals are authorized (2744 MW). Even under the most optimistic scenario whereby authorized proposals will not collectively exceed the national target for wind harnessing in the study area (960 MW), cumulative collision mortality would still be high (17% of current population) and likely lead to population extinction. Under any wind farm proposal scenario, over 92% of expected deaths would occur in the core area of the population, further implying inadequate spatial planning and implementation of relevant European legislation with scant regard for governmental obligations to protect key species. On the basis of a sensitivity map we derive a spatially explicit solution that could meet the national target of wind harnessing with a minimum conservation cost of less than 1% population loss providing that the population mortality (5.2%) caused by the operating wind farms in the core area would be totally mitigated. Under other scenarios, the vulture population would probably be at serious risk of extinction. Our ‘win-win’ approach is appropriate to other potential conflicts where wind farms may cumulatively threaten wildlife populations. PMID:28231316

Canine Sense and Sensibility: Tipping Points and Response Latency Variability as an Optimism Index in a Canine Judgement Bias Assessment

PubMed Central

Starling, Melissa J.; Branson, Nicholas; Cody, Denis; Starling, Timothy R.; McGreevy, Paul D.

2014-01-01

Recent advances in animal welfare science used judgement bias, a type of cognitive bias, as a means to objectively measure an animal's affective state. It is postulated that animals showing heightened expectation of positive outcomes may be categorised optimistic, while those showing heightened expectations of negative outcomes may be considered pessimistic. This study pioneers the use of a portable, automated apparatus to train and test the judgement bias of dogs. Dogs were trained in a discrimination task in which they learned to touch a target after a tone associated with a lactose-free milk reward and abstain from touching the target after a tone associated with water. Their judgement bias was then probed by presenting tones between those learned in the discrimination task and measuring their latency to respond by touching the target. A Cox's Proportional Hazards model was used to analyse censored response latency data. Dog and Cue both had a highly significant effect on latency and risk of touching a target. This indicates that judgement bias both exists in dogs and differs between dogs. Test number also had a significant effect, indicating that dogs were less likely to touch the target over successive tests. Detailed examination of the response latencies revealed tipping points where average latency increased by 100% or more, giving an indication of where dogs began to treat ambiguous cues as predicting more negative outcomes than positive ones. Variability scores were calculated to provide an index of optimism using average latency and standard deviation at cues after the tipping point. The use of a mathematical approach to assessing judgement bias data in animal studies offers a more detailed interpretation than traditional statistical analyses. This study provides proof of concept for the use of an automated apparatus for measuring cognitive bias in dogs. PMID:25229458

Implementation of Tree and Butterfly Barriers with Optimistic Time Management Algorithms for Discrete Event Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizvi, Syed S.; Shah, Dipali; Riasat, Aasia

The Time Wrap algorithm [3] offers a run time recovery mechanism that deals with the causality errors. These run time recovery mechanisms consists of rollback, anti-message, and Global Virtual Time (GVT) techniques. For rollback, there is a need to compute GVT which is used in discrete-event simulation to reclaim the memory, commit the output, detect the termination, and handle the errors. However, the computation of GVT requires dealing with transient message problem and the simultaneous reporting problem. These problems can be dealt in an efficient manner by the Samadi's algorithm [8] which works fine in the presence of causality errors. However, the performance of both Time Wrap and Samadi's algorithms depends on the latency involve in GVT computation. Both algorithms give poor latency for large simulation systems especially in the presence of causality errors. To improve the latency and reduce the processor ideal time, we implement tree and butterflies barriers with the optimistic algorithm. Our analysis shows that the use of synchronous barriers such as tree and butterfly with the optimistic algorithm not only minimizes the GVT latency but also minimizes the processor idle time.

Cross-cultural differences in risk perceptions of disasters.

PubMed

Gierlach, Elaine; Belsher, Bradley E; Beutler, Larry E

2010-10-01

Public risk perceptions of mass disasters carry considerable influences, both psychologically and economically, despite their oft-times imprecise nature. Prior research has identified the presence of an optimistic bias that affects risk perception, but there is a dearth of literature examining how these perceptions differ among cultures-particularly with regard to mass disasters. The present study explores differences among Japanese, Argentinean, and North American mental health workers in their rates of the optimistic bias in risk perceptions as contrasted between natural disasters and terrorist events. The results indicate a significant difference among cultures in levels of perceived risk that do not correspond to actual exposure rates. Japanese groups had the highest risk perceptions for both types of hazards and North Americans and Argentineans had the lowest risk perceptions for terrorism. Additionally, participants across all cultures rated risk to self as lower than risk to others (optimistic bias) across all disaster types. These findings suggest that cultural factors may have a greater influence on risk perception than social exposure, and that the belief that one is more immune to disasters compared to others may be a cross-cultural phenomenon. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

What makes a competent clinical teacher?

PubMed Central

Wealthall, Stephen; Henning, Marcus

2012-01-01

Background Clinical teaching competency is a professional necessity ensuring that clinicians’ knowledge, skills and attitudes are effectively transmitted from experts to novices. The aim of this paper is to consider how clinical skills are transmitted from a historical and reflective perspective and to link these ideas with student and teacher perceptions of competence in clinical teaching. Methods The reflections are informed by a Delphi process and professional development survey designed to capture students’ and clinicians’ ideas about the attributes of a competent clinical teacher. In addition, the survey process obtained information on the importance and ‘teachability’ of these characteristics. Results Four key characteristics of the competent teacher emerged from the Delphi process: clinically competent, efficient organizer, group communicator and person–centred. In a subsequent survey, students were found to be more optimistic about the ‘teachability’ of these characteristics than clinicians and scored the attribute of person-centredness higher than clinicians. Clinicians, on the other hand, ascribed higher levels of importance to clinical competency, efficient organization and group communication than students. Conclusions The Delphi process created a non-threatening system for gathering student and clinician expectations of teachers and created a foundation for developing methods for evaluating clinical competency. This provided insights into differences between teachers’ and students’ expectations, their importance, and professional development. PMID:26451184

Self-organization and phase transition in financial markets with multiple choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Li-Xin; Xu, Wen-Juan; Huang, Ping; Qiu, Tian; He, Yun-Xin; Zhong, Chen-Yang

2014-09-01

Market confidence is essential for successful investing. By incorporating multi-market into the evolutionary minority game, we investigate the effects of investor beliefs on the evolution of collective behaviors and asset prices. It is found that the roles of market confidence are closely related to whether or not there exists another market. When there exists another investment opportunity, different market confidence may lead to the same price fluctuations and the same investment attainment. There are two feedback effects. Being overly optimistic about a particular asset makes an investor become insensitive to losses. A delayed strategy adjustment leads to a decline in wealth and one's runaway from the market. The withdrawal of the agents results in the optimization of the strategy distributions and an increase in wealth. Being overly pessimistic about a particular asset makes an investor over-sensitive to losses. One's too frequent strategy adjustment leads to a decline in wealth. The withdrawal of the agents results in the improvement of the market environment and an increase in wealth.

Large-scale terrestrial solar cell power generation cost: A preliminary assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spakowski, A. E.; Shure, L. I.

1972-01-01

A cost study was made to assess the potential of the large-scale use of solar cell power for terrestrial applications. The incentive is the attraction of a zero-pollution source of power for wide-scale use. Unlike many other concepts for low-pollution power generation, even thermal pollution is avoided since only the incident solar flux is utilized. To provide a basis for comparison and a perspective for evaluation, the pertinent technology was treated in two categories: current and optimistic. Factors considered were solar cells, array assembly, power conditioning, site preparation, buildings, maintenance, and operation. The capital investment was assumed to be amortized over 30 years. The useful life of the solar cell array was assumed to be 10 years, and the cases of zero and 50-percent performance deg-radation were considered. Land costs, taxes, and profits were not included in this study because it was found too difficult to provide good generalized estimates of these items. On the basis of the factors considered, it is shown that even for optimistic projections of technology, electric power from large-sclae terrestrial use of solar cells is approximately two to three orders of magnitude more costly than current electric power generation from either fossil or nuclear fuel powerplants. For solar cell power generation to be a viable competitor on a cost basis, technological breakthroughs would be required in both solar cell and array fabrication and in site preparation.

The government of chronic poverty: from exclusion to citizenship?

PubMed

Hickey, Sam

2010-01-01

Development trustees have increasingly sought to challenge chronic poverty by promoting citizenship amongst poor people, a move that frames citizenship formation as central to overcoming the exclusions and inequalities associated with uneven development. For sceptics, this move within inclusive neoliberalism is inevitably depoliticising and disempowering, and our cases do suggest that citizenship-based strategies rarely alter the underlying basis of poverty. However, our evidence also offers some support to those optimists who suggest that progressive moves towards poverty reduction and citizenship formation have become more rather than less likely at the current juncture. The promotion of citizenship emerges here as a significant but incomplete effort to challenge poverty that persists over time.

Probing 6D operators at future e - e + colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Wen Han; Leung, Sze Ching; Liu, Tao; Lyu, Kun-Feng; Wang, Lian-Tao

2018-05-01

We explore the sensitivities at future e - e + colliders to probe a set of six-dimensional operators which can modify the SM predictions on Higgs physics and electroweak precision measurements. We consider the case in which the operators are turned on simultaneously. Such an analysis yields a "conservative" interpretation on the collider sensitivities, complementary to the "optimistic" scenario where the operators are individually probed. After a detail analysis at CEPC in both "conservative" and "optimistic" scenarios, we also considered the sensitivities for FCC-ee and ILC. As an illustration of the potential of constraining new physics models, we applied sensitivity analysis to two benchmarks: holographic composite Higgs model and littlest Higgs model.

Geologist argues for renewed, deeper look at US Gulf Coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratsch, J.C.

1992-09-01

Over 10 bbo (billion barrels of oil) and about 130 Tcf of gas have been reported as proved reserves discovered in the offshore U.S. continental shelf (OCS or outer continental shelf) along the northern Gulf Coast. Of these reserves, only 2.5 bbo and 36,146 Bcf of gas remain, which seem small in comparison to a U.S. consumption rate of over 5 bbo/yr. Reserves, new additions and production levels in the Gulf Coast region have fallen for the last decade and more. Rig and crew boat counts are down, employment is down, and it is difficult for most to remain optimistic.more » This paper reports that there is good reason for optimism---A major new exploration play for oil and gas exists on the Texas/Louisiana shelf. Modern geological, geophysical (mainly seismic) and geochemical data, when combined, offer a sound base for a major renewed exploration campaign.« less

Quality of social interaction in foster dyads at child age 2 and 3 years.

PubMed

Jacobsen, Heidi; Vang, Kristin Alvestad; Lindahl, Karoline Mentzoni; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Smith, Lars; Moe, Vibeke

2018-06-30

The main aim of this study was to investigate the quality of social interaction between 60 foster parents and their foster children compared to a group of 55 non-foster families at 2 (T1) and again at 3 (T2) years of age. Video observations were used to investigate child-parent interaction at both time-points. "This is My Baby" interview was administered to investigate foster parents' commitment at T1. The main results revealed significant group differences at T1 on all child-parent social interaction measures, although not at T2. Further, a significant group by time interaction was identified for parental sensitivity, revealing a positive development over time in the foster group. Finally, a significant positive relation was found between commitment at T1 and parental sensitivity. The results convey an optimistic view of the possibilities for foster dyads to develop positive patterns of social interaction over time.

In-situ and path-averaged measurements of aerosol optical properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Binsbergen, Sven A.; Grossmann, Peter; February, Faith J.; Cohen, Leo H.; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Stein, Karin U.

2017-09-01

This paper compares in-situ and path-averaged measurements of the electro-optical transmission, with emphasis on aerosol effects. The in-situ sensors consisted of optical particle counters (OPC), the path-averaged data was provided by a 7-wavelength transmissometer (MSRT) and scintillometers (BLS). Data were collected at two sites: a homogeneous test site in Northern Germany, and over the inhomogeneous False Bay near Cape Town, South Africa. A retrieval algorithm was developed to infer characteristics of the aerosol size distribution (Junge approximation) from the MSRT data. A comparison of the various sensors suggests that the optical particle counters are over optimistic in their estimate of the transmission. For the homogeneous test site, in-situ and path-averaged sensors yield similar results. For the inhomogeneous test site, sensors may react differently or temporally separated to meteorological events such as a change in wind speed and/or direction.

Optimistic honesty: understanding surgeon and patient perspectives on hopeful communication in pancreatic cancer care.

PubMed

Blakely, Kim; Karanicolas, Paul J; Wright, Frances C; Gotlib Conn, Lesley

2017-07-01

Prognosis conversations between surgical oncologists and patients with pancreatic cancer are critically important and challenging. Surgeons and their patients often have discrepant understandings of prognosis despite extensive conversations. Little is known about how surgeons approach prognosis conversations with these patients; patients' experiences with these conversations are also not well understood. This qualitative study sought to better understand surgeon and patient perspectives on communication in pancreatic cancer care with a view toward improvement. Grounded theory methodology was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with surgical oncologists and patients who had undergone surgical resection with curative intent for periampullary cancer. Data were collected and analyzed inductively and iteratively to the point of theoretical saturation. 10 surgeons and 10 patients participated. Three inter-linking concepts were found to drive surgeon-patient conversations: understanding, trust and hope. Surgeons delicately and purposefully tailored information for patients, striving to deliver essential though honest, empathetic and hopeful messages. Patients desired simple, truthful explanations that demonstrated caring and fostered optimism. Surgeons and patients with pancreatic cancer value optimistic honesty in tailored prognosis conversations. Perceived discrepancies in surgeon-patient understanding must be contextualized within efforts to establish a sufficient understanding, high level of trust, and optimistic stance of hope. Copyright © 2017 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emission Impacts of Electric Vehicles in the US Transportation Sector Following Optimistic Cost and Efficiency Projections.

PubMed

Keshavarzmohammadian, Azadeh; Henze, Daven K; Milford, Jana B

2017-06-20

This study investigates emission impacts of introducing inexpensive and efficient electric vehicles into the US light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. Scenarios are explored using the ANSWER-MARKAL model with a modified version of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 9-region database. Modified cost and performance projections for LDV technologies are adapted from the National Research Council (2013) optimistic case. Under our optimistic scenario (OPT) we find 15% and 47% adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2030 and 2050, respectively. In contrast, gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) remain dominant through 2050 in the EPA reference case (BAU). Compared to BAU, OPT gives 16% and 36% reductions in LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for 2030 and 2050, respectively, corresponding to 5% and 9% reductions in economy-wide emissions. Total nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and SO 2 emissions are similar in the two scenarios due to intersectoral shifts. Moderate, economy-wide GHG fees have little effect on GHG emissions from the LDV sector but are more effective in the electricity sector. In the OPT scenario, estimated well-to-wheels GHG emissions from full-size BEVs with 100-mile range are 62 gCO 2 -e mi -1 in 2050, while those from full-size ICEVs are 121 gCO 2 -e mi -1 .

Cumulative Delivery Rate after Providing Full Reimbursement In Vitro Fertilization Programme: A 6-Years Survey

PubMed Central

Vrtacnik, Urban; Vrtacnik Bokal, Eda

2014-01-01

Since 1983, Slovenia has been offering well-established, successful, and fully reimbursed IVF programme to infertile couples. On the grounds of data gathered at the Slovenian IVF units we aimed to determine whether the fully accessible IVF treatment system can provide notable success considering cumulative delivery rate (cDR). Longitudinal analysis of getting cDR was performed in 810 IVF cycles of 395 couples who for the first time attended the IVF programme in year 2006 and were followed until year 2012. We calculated the actual and the optimistic cDR. In women aged <38 years the actual cDR was 54% and optimistic DR was 83%, respectively. In women aged ≥38 years the actual cDR was 24 % and optimistic cDR was 27%. These results enable us to report that prospects of the treatment for the women aged <38 years, if they undergo all 6 available IVF cycles, are very positive and quite comparable to the chances of spontaneous conception. Even in older patients it is beneficial to repeat the IVF procedures. Therefore we consider the existing infertility treatment system in Slovenia as an example of good medical practice with high level of beneficence offered to the patients. PMID:24734248

Unrealistic Optimism: East and West?

PubMed Central

Joshi, Mary Sissons; Carter, Wakefield

2013-01-01

Following Weinstein’s (1980) pioneering work many studies established that people have an optimistic bias concerning future life events. At first, the bulk of research was conducted using populations in North America and Northern Europe, the optimistic bias was thought of as universal, and little attention was paid to cultural context. However, construing unrealistic optimism as a form of self-enhancement, some researchers noted that it was far less common in East Asian cultures. The current study extends enquiry to a different non-Western culture. Two hundred and eighty seven middle aged and middle income participants (200 in India, 87 in England) rated 11 positive and 11 negative events in terms of the chances of each event occurring in “their own life,” and the chances of each event occurring in the lives of “people like them.” Comparative optimism was shown for bad events, with Indian participants showing higher levels of optimism than English participants. The position regarding comparative optimism for good events was more complex. In India those of higher socioeconomic status (SES) were optimistic, while those of lower SES were on average pessimistic. Overall, English participants showed neither optimism nor pessimism for good events. The results, whose clinical relevance is discussed, suggest that the expression of unrealistic optimism is shaped by an interplay of culture and socioeconomic circumstance. PMID:23407689

A Revised Estimate of the Occurrence Rate of Terrestrial Planets in the Habitable Zones around Kepler M-dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar

2013-04-01

Because of their large numbers, low-mass stars may be the most abundant planet hosts in our Galaxy. Furthermore, terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around M-dwarfs can potentially be characterized in the near future and hence may be the first such planets to be studied. Recently, Dressing & Charbonneau used Kepler data and calculated the frequency of terrestrial planets in the HZ of cool stars to be 0.15^{+0.13}_{-0.06} per star for Earth-size planets (0.5-1.4 R ⊕). However, this estimate was derived using the Kasting et al. HZ limits, which were not valid for stars with effective temperatures lower than 3700 K. Here we update their result using new HZ limits from Kopparapu et al. for stars with effective temperatures between 2600 K and 7200 K, which includes the cool M stars in the Kepler target list. The new HZ boundaries increase the number of planet candidates in the HZ. Assuming Earth-size planets as 0.5-1.4 R ⊕, when we reanalyze their results, we obtain a terrestrial planet frequency of 0.48^{+0.12}_{-0.24} and 0.53^{+0.08}_{-0.17} planets per M-dwarf star for conservative and optimistic limits of the HZ boundaries, respectively. Assuming Earth-size planets as 0.5-2 R ⊕, the frequency increases to 0.51^{+0.10}_{-0.20} per star for the conservative estimate and to 0.61^{+0.07}_{-0.15} per star for the optimistic estimate. Within uncertainties, our optimistic estimates are in agreement with a similar optimistic estimate from the radial velocity survey of M-dwarfs (0.41^{+0.54}_{-0.13}). So, the potential for finding Earth-like planets around M stars may be higher than previously reported.

A REVISED ESTIMATE OF THE OCCURRENCE RATE OF TERRESTRIAL PLANETS IN THE HABITABLE ZONES AROUND KEPLER M-DWARFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar

Because of their large numbers, low-mass stars may be the most abundant planet hosts in our Galaxy. Furthermore, terrestrial planets in the habitable zones (HZs) around M-dwarfs can potentially be characterized in the near future and hence may be the first such planets to be studied. Recently, Dressing and Charbonneau used Kepler data and calculated the frequency of terrestrial planets in the HZ of cool stars to be 0.15{sup +0.13}{sub -0.06} per star for Earth-size planets (0.5-1.4 R{sub Circled-Plus }). However, this estimate was derived using the Kasting et al. HZ limits, which were not valid for stars with effectivemore » temperatures lower than 3700 K. Here we update their result using new HZ limits from Kopparapu et al. for stars with effective temperatures between 2600 K and 7200 K, which includes the cool M stars in the Kepler target list. The new HZ boundaries increase the number of planet candidates in the HZ. Assuming Earth-size planets as 0.5-1.4 R{sub Circled-Plus }, when we reanalyze their results, we obtain a terrestrial planet frequency of 0.48{sup +0.12}{sub -0.24} and 0.53{sup +0.08}{sub -0.17} planets per M-dwarf star for conservative and optimistic limits of the HZ boundaries, respectively. Assuming Earth-size planets as 0.5-2 R{sub Circled-Plus }, the frequency increases to 0.51{sup +0.10}{sub -0.20} per star for the conservative estimate and to 0.61{sup +0.07}{sub -0.15} per star for the optimistic estimate. Within uncertainties, our optimistic estimates are in agreement with a similar optimistic estimate from the radial velocity survey of M-dwarfs (0.41{sup +0.54}{sub -0.13}). So, the potential for finding Earth-like planets around M stars may be higher than previously reported.« less

An investigation of the effect of nurses' technology readiness on the acceptance of mobile electronic medical record systems.

PubMed

Kuo, Kuang-Ming; Liu, Chung-Feng; Ma, Chen-Chung

2013-08-12

Adopting mobile electronic medical record (MEMR) systems is expected to be one of the superior approaches for improving nurses' bedside and point of care services. However, nurses may use the functions for far fewer tasks than the MEMR supports. This may depend on their technological personality associated to MEMR acceptance. The purpose of this study is to investigate nurses' personality traits in regard to technology readiness toward MEMR acceptance. The study used a self-administered questionnaire to collect 665 valid responses from a large hospital in Taiwan. Structural Equation modeling was utilized to analyze the collected data. Of the four personality traits of the technology readiness, the results posit that nurses are optimistic, innovative, secure but uncomfortable about technology. Furthermore, these four personality traits were all proven to have a significant impact on the perceived ease of use of MEMR while the perceived usefulness of MEMR was significantly influenced by the optimism trait only. The results also confirmed the relationships between the perceived components of ease of use, usefulness, and behavioral intention in the Technology Acceptance Model toward MEMR usage. Continuous educational programs can be provided for nurses to enhance their information technology literacy, minimizing their stress and discomfort about information technology. Further, hospital should recruit, either internally or externally, more optimistic nurses as champions of MEMR by leveraging the instrument proposed in this study. Besides, nurses' requirements must be fully understood during the development of MEMR to ensure that MEMR can meet the real needs of nurses. The friendliness of user interfaces of MEMR and the compatibility of nurses' work practices as these will also greatly enhance nurses' willingness to use MEMR. Finally, the effects of technology personality should not be ignored, indicating that hospitals should also include more employees' characteristics beyond socio-demographic profiles in their personnel databases.

An investigation of the effect of nurses’ technology readiness on the acceptance of mobile electronic medical record systems

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Adopting mobile electronic medical record (MEMR) systems is expected to be one of the superior approaches for improving nurses’ bedside and point of care services. However, nurses may use the functions for far fewer tasks than the MEMR supports. This may depend on their technological personality associated to MEMR acceptance. The purpose of this study is to investigate nurses’ personality traits in regard to technology readiness toward MEMR acceptance. Methods The study used a self-administered questionnaire to collect 665 valid responses from a large hospital in Taiwan. Structural Equation modeling was utilized to analyze the collected data. Results Of the four personality traits of the technology readiness, the results posit that nurses are optimistic, innovative, secure but uncomfortable about technology. Furthermore, these four personality traits were all proven to have a significant impact on the perceived ease of use of MEMR while the perceived usefulness of MEMR was significantly influenced by the optimism trait only. The results also confirmed the relationships between the perceived components of ease of use, usefulness, and behavioral intention in the Technology Acceptance Model toward MEMR usage. Conclusions Continuous educational programs can be provided for nurses to enhance their information technology literacy, minimizing their stress and discomfort about information technology. Further, hospital should recruit, either internally or externally, more optimistic nurses as champions of MEMR by leveraging the instrument proposed in this study. Besides, nurses’ requirements must be fully understood during the development of MEMR to ensure that MEMR can meet the real needs of nurses. The friendliness of user interfaces of MEMR and the compatibility of nurses’ work practices as these will also greatly enhance nurses’ willingness to use MEMR. Finally, the effects of technology personality should not be ignored, indicating that hospitals should also include more employees’ characteristics beyond socio-demographic profiles in their personnel databases. PMID:23938040

Testosterone facilitates the sense of agency.

PubMed

van der Westhuizen, Donné; Moore, James; Solms, Mark; van Honk, Jack

2017-11-01

Sense of agency (SoA) refers to feelings of being in control of one's actions. Evidence suggests that SoA might contribute towards higher-order feelings of personal control - a key attribute of powerful individuals. Whether testosterone, a steroid hormone linked to power in dominance hierarchies, also influences the SoA is not yet established. In a repeated-measures design, 26 females participated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the effects of 0.5 mg testosterone on SoA, using an implicit measure based upon perceived shifts in time between a voluntary action and its outcome. Illusions of control, as operationalized by optimism in affective forecasting, were also assessed. Testosterone increased action binding but there was no significant effect on tone binding. Affective forecasting was found to be significantly more positive on testosterone. SoA and optimistic expectations are basic manifestations of power which may contribute to feelings of infallibility often associated with dominance and testosterone. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey.

PubMed

Yoldascan, Elcin; Kurtaran, Behice; Koyuncu, Melik; Koyuncu, Esra

2010-04-01

Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.

Mexican demand for US natural gas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kanter, M.A.; Kier, P.H.

1993-09-01

This study describes the Mexican natural gas industry as it exists today and the factors that have shaped the evolution of the industry in the past or that are expected to influence its progress; it also projects production and use of natural gas and estimates the market for exports of natural gas from the United States to Mexico. The study looks ahead to two periods, a near term (1993--1995) and an intermediate term (1996--2000). The bases for estimates under two scenarios are described. Under the conservative scenario, exports of natural gas from the United States would decrease from the 1992more » level of 250 million cubic feet per day (MMCF/d), would return to that level by 1995, and would reach about 980 MMCF/D by 2000. Under the more optimistic scenario, exports would decrease in 1993 and would recover and rise to about 360 MMCF/D in 1995 and to 1,920 MMCF/D in 2000.« less

A dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization algorithm for an inventory management problem under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Zeng, Ziqiang; Han, Bernard; Lei, Xiao

2013-07-01

This article presents a dynamic programming-based particle swarm optimization (DP-based PSO) algorithm for solving an inventory management problem for large-scale construction projects under a fuzzy random environment. By taking into account the purchasing behaviour and strategy under rules of international bidding, a multi-objective fuzzy random dynamic programming model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified by using an expected value operator with optimistic-pessimistic index. The iterative nature of the authors' model motivates them to develop a DP-based PSO algorithm. More specifically, their approach treats the state variables as hidden parameters. This in turn eliminates many redundant feasibility checks during initialization and particle updates at each iteration. Results and sensitivity analysis are presented to highlight the performance of the authors' optimization method, which is very effective as compared to the standard PSO algorithm.

Multimode resource-constrained multiple project scheduling problem under fuzzy random environment and its application to a large scale hydropower construction project.

PubMed

Xu, Jiuping; Feng, Cuiying

2014-01-01

This paper presents an extension of the multimode resource-constrained project scheduling problem for a large scale construction project where multiple parallel projects and a fuzzy random environment are considered. By taking into account the most typical goals in project management, a cost/weighted makespan/quality trade-off optimization model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform the fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified using an expected value operator with an optimistic-pessimistic index. Then a combinatorial-priority-based hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model, where the combinatorial particle swarm optimization and priority-based particle swarm optimization are designed to assign modes to activities and to schedule activities, respectively. Finally, the results and analysis of a practical example at a large scale hydropower construction project are presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed model and optimization method.

Why Targeted Therapies are Necessary for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

PubMed Central

Durcan, Laura; Petri, Michelle

2016-01-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) continues to have important morbidity and accelerated mortality despite therapeutic advances. Targeted therapies offer the possibility of improved efficacy with fewer side-effects. Current management strategies rely heavily on non-specific immunosuppressive agents. Prednisone, in particular, is responsible for a considerable burden of later organ damage. There are a multitude of diverse mechanisms of disease activity, immunogenic abnormalities and clinical manifestations to take into consideration in SLE. Many targeted agents with robust mechanistic pre-clinical data and promising early phase studies have ultimately been disappointing in phase III randomized controlled studies. Recent efforts have focused on B cell therapies, in particular given the success of belimumab in clinical trials, with limited success. We remain optimistic regarding other specific therapies being evaluated including interferon alpha blockade. It is likely that in SLE, given the heterogeneity of the population involved, precision medicine is needed, rather than expecting that any single biologic will be universally effective. PMID:27497251

An alternative point of view: getting by with less: what's wrong with perfection?

PubMed

Nunnally, Mark E

2010-11-01

Predictions about the future impact of technologic and process innovations inspire optimistic visions. Optimism and speculation require a counterweight. Because results often do not turn out as expected, anticipating failure is useful, and anticipating unintended consequences is visionary. A history of unfulfilled prognostications was explored with the intent of finding something essential to the complexities of medicine. Do missed predictions signal another side to innovation that also helps us uncover new information about our world? Serendipity is an important theme in medical innovation. There is no reason to think this will change. Things do not necessarily go as planned, but often the results are as important as the original prediction was supposed to be. It will not be clear where we end up until we get there. Ideal goals are useful but speculative and subjective. There in fact might be several ideals and contingency is important. The detours and incidental stops on the way to an ideal are more fruitful than the goal itself.

Multimode Resource-Constrained Multiple Project Scheduling Problem under Fuzzy Random Environment and Its Application to a Large Scale Hydropower Construction Project

PubMed Central

Xu, Jiuping

2014-01-01

This paper presents an extension of the multimode resource-constrained project scheduling problem for a large scale construction project where multiple parallel projects and a fuzzy random environment are considered. By taking into account the most typical goals in project management, a cost/weighted makespan/quality trade-off optimization model is constructed. To deal with the uncertainties, a hybrid crisp approach is used to transform the fuzzy random parameters into fuzzy variables that are subsequently defuzzified using an expected value operator with an optimistic-pessimistic index. Then a combinatorial-priority-based hybrid particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to solve the proposed model, where the combinatorial particle swarm optimization and priority-based particle swarm optimization are designed to assign modes to activities and to schedule activities, respectively. Finally, the results and analysis of a practical example at a large scale hydropower construction project are presented to demonstrate the practicality and efficiency of the proposed model and optimization method. PMID:24550708

Nondirectiveness and its lay interpretations: the effect of counseling style, ethnicity and culture on attitudes towards genetic counseling among Jewish and Bedouin respondents in Israel.

PubMed

Raz, Aviad E; Atar, Marcela

2003-08-01

To evaluate the effects of ethnicity, culture, and counseling style on the interpretation of nondirectiveness in genetic counseling, a questionnaire containing premarital and prenatal case vignettes in two versions (pessimistic/optimistic) was administered to 281 Jewish and 133 Bedouin respondents. The first study population was comprised of Jewish students enrolled in a university and a community college in the Negev (southern part of Israel). The second study population was comprised of Muslim-Bedouin college students from the same area. The majority of Jewish respondents interpreted the nondirective message as intended by counselors, while the majority of Bedouin respondents did not. Counseling style was found to have a statistically significant effect on the interpretation of the general role of counseling. Gender and susceptibility were not found to have a significant effect on interpretation. Group differences are analyzed through a cultural lens in which different interpretive norms can generate expectations for either nondirectiveness or directiveness.

Optimism and well-being: a prospective multi-method and multi-dimensional examination of optimism as a resilience factor following the occurrence of stressful life events.

PubMed

Kleiman, Evan M; Chiara, Alexandra M; Liu, Richard T; Jager-Hyman, Shari G; Choi, Jimmy Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2017-02-01

Optimism has been conceptualised variously as positive expectations (PE) for the future , optimistic attributions , illusion of control , and self-enhancing biases. Relatively little research has examined these multiple dimensions of optimism in relation to psychological and physical health. The current study assessed the multi-dimensional nature of optimism within a prospective vulnerability-stress framework. Initial principal component analyses revealed the following dimensions: PEs, Inferential Style (IS), Sense of Invulnerability (SI), and Overconfidence (O). Prospective follow-up analyses demonstrated that PE was associated with fewer depressive episodes and moderated the effect of stressful life events on depressive symptoms. SI also moderated the effect of life stress on anxiety symptoms. Generally, our findings indicated that optimism is a multifaceted construct and not all forms of optimism have the same effects on well-being. Specifically, our findings indicted that PE may be the most relevant to depression, whereas SI may be the most relevant to anxiety.

Minimal supersymmetric B - L extension of the standard model, heavy H and light h Higgs boson production and decay at future e + e - linear colliders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramírez-Sánchez, F.; Gutierrez-Rodríguez, A.; Hernández-Ruiz, M. A.

2017-10-01

We study the phenomenology of the light h and heavy H Higgs boson production and decay in the context of a U(1) B - L extension of the standard model with an additional Z´ boson at future e + e - linear colliders with center-of-mass energies of √𝑠 = 500 - 3000 GeV and integrated luminosities of L = 500 - 2000 fb-1. The study includes the processes e + e - → (Z, Z´) → Zh and e + e - → (Z, Z´) → ZH, considering both the resonant and non-resonant effects. We find that the total number of expected Zh and ZH events can reach 106 and 105, respectively, which is a very optimistic scenario allowing us to perform precision measurements for both Higgs bosons h and H, as well as for the Z‧ boson in future high-energy and high-luminosity e + e - colliders.

Spouses of thoracic surgery applicants: changing demographics and motivations in a new generation.

PubMed

Bohl, Michael; Reddy, Rishindra M

2013-01-01

Applications to thoracic residency have decreased. The causes are multifactorial, but include changing motivations such as lifestyle concerns. Thoracic residents (TRs) have been well studied, but no one has ever characterized the influence or motivations of their spouses. We sought to evaluate the demographics and interests of TR spouses. An electronic survey was sent to all TR applicants over 2 years at 2 training programs and to all current TRs in 2010. Recipients were asked to forward the survey to their spouses. Responses were analyzed globally and compared in subgroups. Sixty-six surveys were completed and returned for a response rate of 19%. Among them, 86% of respondents were female, with 82% being married for a mean of 4.3 years. Fifty-nine percent of respondents had children and 64% were planning on having more children within 3 years. Hundred percent felt optimistic that they would be financially stable after training, but only 57% were optimistic about quality of life after training. Eighty-four percent felt that they had influence on the choice of training program. Almost 80% wanted more information on salary, housing, and access to faculty spouses. Quality of fellowship, geographic location, and proximity to family were the top 3 factors in choosing a program. Nearly 90% of respondents reported they want to travel to more interviews, and nearly 90% of respondents reported having some to complete influence over which training program to attend. It is safe to presume, therefore, that applicant spouses are not only highly influential on TR applicants but also interested in greater inclusion in the interview process. The results show numerous demographic and characteristic trends which, if further validated by definitive studies, would be applicable to all post-surgery residency training programs and may help TR programs to be more competitive in attracting applicants and their families. Copyright © 2013 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of a second tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine dose to prevent pertussis in the United States.

PubMed

Kamiya, Hajime; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Messonnier, Mark L; Clark, Thomas A; Liang, Jennifer L

2016-04-04

The United States experienced a substantial increase in reported pertussis cases over the last decade. Since 2005, persons 11 years and older have been routinely recommended to receive a single dose of tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of recommending a second dose of Tdap. A static cohort model was used to calculate the epidemiologic and economic impact of adding a second dose of Tdap at age 16 or 21 years. Projected costs and outcomes were examined from a societal perspective over a 20-year period. Quality-adjusted Life Years (QALY) saved were calculated. Using baseline pertussis incidence from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Tdap revaccination at either age 16 or 21 years would reduce outpatient visits by 433 (5%) and 285 (4%), and hospitalization cases by 7 (7%) and 5 (5%), respectively. The costs per QALY saved with a second dose of Tdap were approximately US $19.7 million (16 years) and $26.2 million (21 years). In sensitivity analyses, incidence most influenced the model; as incidence increased, the costs per QALY decreased. To a lesser degree, initial vaccine effectiveness and waning of effectiveness also affected cost outcomes. Multivariate sensitivity analyses showed that under a set of optimistic assumptions, the cost per QALY saved would be approximately $163,361 (16 years) and $204,556 (21 years). A second dose of Tdap resulted in a slight decrease in the number of cases and other outcomes, and that trend is more apparent when revaccinating at age 16 years than at age 21 years. Both revaccination strategies had high dollar per QALY saved even under optimistic assumptions in a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The future is now: prospective temporal self-appraisals among defensive pessimists and optimists.

PubMed

Sanna, Lawrence J; Chang, Edward C; Carter, Seth E; Small, Eulena M

2006-06-01

Three studies found that prospective temporal self-appraisals can be part of defensive pessimists' strategy; they felt closer to equally distant negative than positive futures. In Study 1, defensive pessimists felt closer to future failures and reported more negative affect than those considering success. In Study 2, when manipulated negative futures were close, defensive pessimists felt bad and performed well; results suggested that viewing negative futures as close may be part of their natural strategy. Study 3 found that prospective self-appraisals influenced performances through felt preparation. Optimists did not use prospective self-appraisals (Study 1) and their performances were unaffected by manipulated temporal distance (Studies 2 and 3). Discussion centers on prospective self-appraisals and multiple strategies of defensive pessimists.

Discerning the role of optimism in persuasion: the valence-enhancement hypothesis.

PubMed

Geers, Andrew L; Handley, Ian M; McLarney, Amber R

2003-09-01

The valence-enhancement hypothesis argues that because of their active coping strategies, optimists are especially likely to elaborate on valenced information that is of high personal relevance. The hypothesis predicts that as a result, optimists will be more persuaded by personally relevant positive messages and less persuaded by personally relevant negative messages than pessimists. It also predicts that when the message is not personally relevant, optimism and persuasion will not be related in this manner. The results of 3 studies support these predictions and supply evidence against several alternative hypotheses. The possibility that the observed effects are not due to optimism but to the confounding influence of 7 additional variables is also addressed and ruled out. Implications are discussed.

Effects of message framing and visual-fear appeals on smoker responses to antismoking ads.

PubMed

Kang, Jungsuk; Lin, Carolyn A

2015-01-01

This study examined the effects of antismoking ads on Korean adult male smokers. An experiment was conducted to explore how message framing and visual-fear appeals embedded in antismoking ads may influence ad-evoked fear, threat appraisals, and intention to quit smoking. Results showed that (a) antismoking ad exposure increased ad-evoked fear and cessation intention; (b) optimistic bias was stronger when the visual-fear appeal was absent in antismoking ads; and (c) preexposure cessation intension as well as postexposure perceived severity and optimistic bias were positively predictive of smokers' postexposure cessation intention The study provided the first preliminary empirical evidence for validating the combined effects of message frames and visual-fear appeals in antismoking ads on facilitating cessation intention.

The need to approximate the use-case in clinical machine learning.

PubMed

Saeb, Sohrab; Lonini, Luca; Jayaraman, Arun; Mohr, David C; Kording, Konrad P

2017-05-01

The availability of smartphone and wearable sensor technology is leading to a rapid accumulation of human subject data, and machine learning is emerging as a technique to map those data into clinical predictions. As machine learning algorithms are increasingly used to support clinical decision making, it is vital to reliably quantify their prediction accuracy. Cross-validation (CV) is the standard approach where the accuracy of such algorithms is evaluated on part of the data the algorithm has not seen during training. However, for this procedure to be meaningful, the relationship between the training and the validation set should mimic the relationship between the training set and the dataset expected for the clinical use. Here we compared two popular CV methods: record-wise and subject-wise. While the subject-wise method mirrors the clinically relevant use-case scenario of diagnosis in newly recruited subjects, the record-wise strategy has no such interpretation. Using both a publicly available dataset and a simulation, we found that record-wise CV often massively overestimates the prediction accuracy of the algorithms. We also conducted a systematic review of the relevant literature, and found that this overly optimistic method was used by almost half of the retrieved studies that used accelerometers, wearable sensors, or smartphones to predict clinical outcomes. As we move towards an era of machine learning-based diagnosis and treatment, using proper methods to evaluate their accuracy is crucial, as inaccurate results can mislead both clinicians and data scientists. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

The impact of 'Generation Y' occupational therapy students on practice education.

PubMed

Hills, Caroline; Ryan, Susan; Smith, Derek R; Warren-Forward, Helen

2012-04-01

Many occupational therapy students can be classified as 'Generation Y', a group whose characteristics are perceived as being confident, optimistic and 'techno-savvy'. This study aimed to explore practice educator perceptions of 'Generation Y' students. A questionnaire survey was sent to all practice educators affiliated with the university. The survey contained fixed choice questions on demographics and educators' knowledge of the term 'Generation Y', followed by open-ended questions on practice educator perceptions of occupational therapy 'Generation Y' students and the educational strategies used in practice education. Anonymous responses were analysed using descriptive statistics, attribute coding and content analysis. Most educators considered that there was, in fact, a 'Generation Y student', describing them as confident with technology, over confident in their skill level and easily bored. Practice educators raised concerns regarding students' casual communication, poor professional behaviour, shallow professional reasoning and difficulty when receiving negative feedback. Overall, the results of this study suggest that 'Generation Y' students are having both a negative and a positive impact on practice education in occupational therapy. For educators, management of the overconfident student and professional reasoning development should be addressed in university practice education workshops. For students, the need for clarification of placement expectations on professional behaviour and communication was indicated. Students may also require 'listening to feedback' skill development prior to practice education. Universities and practice educators should consider the development of technological resources for practice education, including simulation, to meet the needs of the, now recognised 'Generation Y' student. © 2011 The Authors. Australian Occupational Therapy Journal © 2011 Occupational Therapy Australia.

Esthetic dermatology and emotional well-being according to gender.

PubMed

Martínez-González, Maria Covadonga; Martínez-González, Raquel-Amaya; Guerra-Tapia, Aurora

2018-06-01

There has been an increase in the demand for esthetic dermatology treatments within the general population. The purpose of this study was to analyze, within the scope of general population, the relationship between people's perception of esthetic dermatology treatments and emotional well-being, as well as for differences in gender. The Aesthetic Dermatology and Emotional Well-Being (DEBIE) Scale, [Journal of Cosmetic Dermatology vol. 13 (2014) 336-345] was applied to 770 Spanish people over 18 years old. The scale is structured according to six factors and classified into two dimensions: (1) Emotional Well-Being and (2) Perception of Aesthetic Dermatology. Cronbach alpha for the total scale was very high (0.90). Data analysis includes the following: (1) bivariate correlations with Pearson's coefficient; (2) gender differences through Student's t test, and (3) the effect size through R 2 and Cohen's d. A statistically significant relationship which is directly proportional has been identified between the degree of emotional well-being of people (self-esteem and assertiveness, optimism, and motivation) and the knowledge and attitude toward Aesthetic Dermatology. There are statistically significant differences according to gender: Women have a lower level of emotional well-being than men, as well as greater knowledge and more positive attitude toward Aesthetic Dermatology. People who are familiar with Aesthetic Dermatology and have a better attitude toward it, are also more self-confident, more optimistic and more motivated; with emotional strength. Regarding gender, it is expected that women may seek more consultation and esthetic dermatology treatments than men do. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Renal denervation for the treatment of resistant hypertension: review and clinical perspective.

PubMed

Iliescu, Radu; Lohmeier, Thomas E; Tudorancea, Ionut; Laffin, Luke; Bakris, George L

2015-10-01

When introduced clinically 6 years ago, renal denervation was thought to be the solution for all patients whose blood pressure could not be controlled by medication. The initial two studies, SYMPLICITY HTN-1 and HTN-2, demonstrated great magnitudes of blood pressure reduction within 6 mo of the procedure and were based on a number of assumptions that may not have been true, including strict adherence to medication and absence of white-coat hypertension. The SYMPLICITY HTN-3 trial controlled for all possible factors believed to influence the outcome, including the addition of a sham arm, and ultimately proved the demise of the initial overly optimistic expectations. This trial yielded a much lower blood pressure reduction compared with the previous SYMPLICITY trials. Since its publication in 2014, there have been many analyses to try and understand what accounted for the differences. Of all the variables examined that could influence blood pressure outcomes, the extent of the denervation procedure was determined to be inadequate. Beyond this, the physiological mechanisms that account for the heterogeneous fall in arterial pressure following renal denervation remain unclear, and experimental studies indicate dependence on more than simply reduced renal sympathetic activity. These and other related issues are discussed in this paper. Our perspective is that renal denervation works if done properly and used in the appropriate patient population. New studies with new approaches and catheters and appropriate controls will be starting later this year to reassess the efficacy and safety of renal denervation in humans. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Social inequalities in health: a proper concern of epidemiology.

PubMed

Marmot, Michael; Bell, Ruth

2016-04-01

Social inequalities are a proper concern of epidemiology. Epidemiological thinking and modes of analysis are central, but epidemiological research is one among many areas of study that provide the evidence for understanding the causes of social inequalities in health and what can be done to reduce them. Understanding the causes of health inequalities requires insights from social, behavioral and biological sciences, and a chain of reasoning that examines how the accumulation of positive and negative influences over the life course leads to health inequalities in adult life. Evidence that the social gradient in health can be reduced should make us optimistic that reducing health inequalities is a realistic goal for all societies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unfinished feticide: a legal commentary.

PubMed Central

Brazier, Margaret

1990-01-01

Jansen expresses concern as to the legal implications of both selective reduction of pregnancy and unsuccessful attempts at termination of pregnancy using mifepristone. This commentary examines the legality of both procedures and concludes that Jansen is over-optimistic in his belief that neither procedure is likely to fall foul of the criminal laws on induced abortion. By contrast his anxieties about civil liability arising from the subsequent live birth of a damaged infant are, it is suggested, unnecessarily pessimistic. Such an action is most unlikely to succeed if brought by the infant herself and any claim on the part of the mother will normally be dependent on proof of negligence. The commentary focusses on the law in England with relevant references to other common law jurisdictions. PMID:11642779

Trans-dimensional Bayesian inversion of airborne electromagnetic data for 2D conductivity profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, Rhys; Brodie, Ross C.; Sambridge, Malcolm

2018-02-01

This paper presents the application of a novel trans-dimensional sampling approach to a time domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) inverse problem to solve for plausible conductivities of the subsurface. Geophysical inverse field problems, such as time domain AEM, are well known to have a large degree of non-uniqueness. Common least-squares optimisation approaches fail to take this into account and provide a single solution with linearised estimates of uncertainty that can result in overly optimistic appraisal of the conductivity of the subsurface. In this new non-linear approach, the spatial complexity of a 2D profile is controlled directly by the data. By examining an ensemble of proposed conductivity profiles it accommodates non-uniqueness and provides more robust estimates of uncertainties.

A new wave of urologists? Graduating urology residents' practices of and attitudes toward social media.

PubMed

Jain, Kunal; Fervaha, Gagan; Fuoco, Michael B; Leveridge, Michael J

2018-03-19

Social media (SoMe) have revolutionized healthcare, but physicians remain hesitant to adopt SoMe in their practices. We sought to assess graduating urology residents' practices of and attitudes toward SoMe. A close-ended questionnaire, employing five-point Likert scales, was distributed to all final-year residents (n=100) in Canadian urology training programs in 2012, 2014, and 2016 to assess SoMe usage and perceived usefulness. All (100%) questionnaires were completed. Respondents frequently used online services for personal (100%) and professional (96%) purposes. Most (92%) used SoMe. Many (73%) frequently used SoMe for personal purposes, but few (12%) frequently used SoMe for professional purposes. While a majority (59%) opposed direct patient interaction online, most supported using SoMe to provide patients with static information (76%) and collaborate with colleagues (65%). Many (70-73%) were optimistic that novel solutions to privacy issues in online communications will arise, making SoMe and email contact with patients conceivable. Few (2-8%) were aware and had read guidelines and legislations regarding physician online practices; however, awareness of medical associations' and institutional SoMe policies significantly increased over time (p<0.05). Despite their active online use, graduating urology residents rarely used SoMe in professional settings and were wary of using it in patient care. Nevertheless, they were optimistic toward its integration in urology and supported its use in physician-physician communication. Considering SoMe's increased influence on urology and graduating residents' limited awareness of guidelines and legislations, postgraduate medical educators should encourage residents to become more familiar with current online communication recommendations.

Optimistic bias and Facebook use: self-other discrepancies about potential risks and benefits of Facebook use.

PubMed

Kim, Sunny Jung; Hancock, Jeffrey T

2015-04-01

Despite the accumulating evidence on the positive and negative outcomes of Facebook use, how people perceive themselves to be subject to these outcomes as well as the consequences and mechanisms of these perceptions are underexplored. According to optimistic bias, Facebook users may perceive that bad things are more likely to happen to others than to themselves, while good things are more likely to happen to them than to others. The findings from an online survey among Facebook users indicate that the negative psychological and social outcomes of using Facebook were perceived to be more likely to happen to other Facebook users than to themselves, p<0.001. These self-other discrepant perceptions toward negative social events (e.g., Facebook cyberbullying and scams) significantly mediated one's willingness to support Internet regulation, Sobel z=2.49, p=0.01. For positive outcomes of Facebook use, the direction of optimistic bias was reversed, t(235) = -5.52, p<0.01, indicating that people minimized the likelihoods of experiencing positive events from Facebook while assessing that other Facebook users are prone to encounter those positive events. This reversal pattern emerged among those with negative attitudes toward, and low involvement with, Facebook. These findings demonstrate important and novel self-other discrepant perceptions concerning the risks and benefits of Facebook use.

Correcting for Optimistic Prediction in Small Data Sets

PubMed Central

Smith, Gordon C. S.; Seaman, Shaun R.; Wood, Angela M.; Royston, Patrick; White, Ian R.

2014-01-01

The C statistic is a commonly reported measure of screening test performance. Optimistic estimation of the C statistic is a frequent problem because of overfitting of statistical models in small data sets, and methods exist to correct for this issue. However, many studies do not use such methods, and those that do correct for optimism use diverse methods, some of which are known to be biased. We used clinical data sets (United Kingdom Down syndrome screening data from Glasgow (1991–2003), Edinburgh (1999–2003), and Cambridge (1990–2006), as well as Scottish national pregnancy discharge data (2004–2007)) to evaluate different approaches to adjustment for optimism. We found that sample splitting, cross-validation without replication, and leave-1-out cross-validation produced optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic that were biased and/or associated with greater absolute error than other available methods. Cross-validation with replication, bootstrapping, and a new method (leave-pair-out cross-validation) all generated unbiased optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic and had similar absolute errors in the clinical data set. Larger simulation studies confirmed that all 3 methods performed similarly with 10 or more events per variable, or when the C statistic was 0.9 or greater. However, with lower events per variable or lower C statistics, bootstrapping tended to be optimistic but with lower absolute and mean squared errors than both methods of cross-validation. PMID:24966219

Prospects for measuring cosmic microwave background spectral distortions in the presence of foregrounds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abitbol, Maximilian H.; Chluba, Jens; Hill, J. Colin; Johnson, Bradley R.

2017-10-01

Measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) spectral distortions have profound implications for our understanding of physical processes taking place over a vast window in cosmological history. Foreground contamination is unavoidable in such measurements and detailed signal-foreground separation will be necessary to extract cosmological science. In this paper, we present Markov chain Monte Carlo based spectral distortion detection forecasts in the presence of Galactic and extragalactic foregrounds for a range of possible experimental configurations, focusing on the Primordial Inflation Explorer (PIXIE) as a fiducial concept. We consider modifications to the baseline PIXIE mission (operating ≃ 12 months in distortion mode), searching for optimal configurations using a Fisher approach. Using only spectral information, we forecast an extended PIXIE mission to detect the expected average non-relativistic and relativistic thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich distortions at high significance (194σ and 11σ, respectively), even in the presence of foregrounds. The ΛCDM Silk damping μ-type distortion is not detected without additional modifications of the instrument or external data. Galactic synchrotron radiation is the most problematic source of contamination in this respect, an issue that could be mitigated by combining PIXIE data with future ground-based observations at low frequencies (ν ≲ 15-30 GHz). Assuming moderate external information on the synchrotron spectrum, we project an upper limit of |μ| < 3.6 × 10-7 (95 per cent c.l.), slightly more than one order of magnitude above the fiducial ΛCDM signal from the damping of small-scale primordial fluctuations, but a factor of ≃250 improvement over the current upper limit from COBE/Far Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer. This limit could be further reduced to |μ| < 9.4 × 10-8 (95 per cent c.l.) with more optimistic assumptions about extra low-frequency information and would rule out many alternative inflation models and provide new constraints on decaying particle scenarios.

A Qualitative Evaluation of Student Learning and Skills Use in a School-Based Mindfulness and Yoga Program

PubMed Central

Mirabal-Beltran, Roxanne; Cluxton-Keller, Fallon; Gould, Laura Feagans; Greenberg, Mark T.; Mendelson, Tamar

2016-01-01

Previous studies on school-based mindfulness and yoga programs have focused primarily on quantitative measurement of program outcomes. This study used qualitative data to investigate program content and skills that students remembered and applied in their daily lives. Data were gathered following a 16-week mindfulness and yoga intervention delivered at three urban schools by a community non-profit organization. We conducted focus groups and interviews with nine classroom teachers who did not participate in the program and held six focus groups with 22 fifth and sixth grade program participants. This study addresses two primary research questions: (1) What skills did students learn, retain, and utilize outside the program? and (2) What changes did classroom teachers expect and observe among program recipients? Four major themes related to skill learning and application emerged as follows: (1) youths retained and utilized program skills involving breath work and poses; (2) knowledge about health benefits of these techniques promoted self-utilization and sharing of skills; (3) youths developed keener emotional appraisal that, coupled with new and improved emotional regulation skills, helped de-escalate negative emotions, promote calm, and reduce stress; and (4) youths and teachers reported realistic and optimistic expectations for future impact of acquired program skills. We discuss implications of these findings for guiding future research and practice. PMID:26918064

Prospects for distinguishing dark matter models using annual modulation

DOE PAGES

Witte, Samuel J.; Gluscevic, Vera; McDermott, Samuel D.

2017-02-24

It has recently been demonstrated that, in the event of a putative signal in dark matter direct detection experiments, properly identifying the underlying dark matter-nuclei interaction promises to be a challenging task. Given the most optimistic expectations for the number counts of recoil events in the forthcoming Generation 2 experiments, differentiating between interactions that produce distinct features in the recoil energy spectra will only be possible if a strong signal is observed simultaneously on a variety of complementary targets. However, there is a wide range of viable theories that give rise to virtually identical energy spectra, and may only differmore » by the dependence of the recoil rate on the dark matter velocity. In this work, we investigate how degeneracy between such competing models may be broken by analyzing the time dependence of nuclear recoils, i.e. the annual modulation of the rate. For this purpose, we simulate dark matter events for a variety of interactions and experiments, and perform a Bayesian model-selection analysis on all simulated data sets, evaluating the chance of correctly identifying the input model for a given experimental setup. Lastly, we find that including information on the annual modulation of the rate may significantly enhance the ability of a single target to distinguish dark matter models with nearly degenerate recoil spectra, but only with exposures beyond the expectations of Generation 2 experiments.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Witte, Samuel J.; Gluscevic, Vera; McDermott, Samuel D.

It has recently been demonstrated that, in the event of a putative signal in dark matter direct detection experiments, properly identifying the underlying dark matter-nuclei interaction promises to be a challenging task. Given the most optimistic expectations for the number counts of recoil events in the forthcoming Generation 2 experiments, differentiating between interactions that produce distinct features in the recoil energy spectra will only be possible if a strong signal is observed simultaneously on a variety of complementary targets. However, there is a wide range of viable theories that give rise to virtually identical energy spectra, and may only differmore » by the dependence of the recoil rate on the dark matter velocity. In this work, we investigate how degeneracy between such competing models may be broken by analyzing the time dependence of nuclear recoils, i.e. the annual modulation of the rate. For this purpose, we simulate dark matter events for a variety of interactions and experiments, and perform a Bayesian model-selection analysis on all simulated data sets, evaluating the chance of correctly identifying the input model for a given experimental setup. Lastly, we find that including information on the annual modulation of the rate may significantly enhance the ability of a single target to distinguish dark matter models with nearly degenerate recoil spectra, but only with exposures beyond the expectations of Generation 2 experiments.« less

Science with the space-based interferometer LISA. V. Extreme mass-ratio inspirals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babak, Stanislav; Gair, Jonathan; Sesana, Alberto; Barausse, Enrico; Sopuerta, Carlos F.; Berry, Christopher P. L.; Berti, Emanuele; Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Petiteau, Antoine; Klein, Antoine

2017-05-01

The space-based Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will be able to observe the gravitational-wave signals from systems comprised of a massive black hole and a stellar-mass compact object. These systems are known as extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) and are expected to complete ˜1 04- 1 05 cycles in band, thus allowing exquisite measurements of their parameters. In this work, we attempt to quantify the astrophysical uncertainties affecting the predictions for the number of EMRIs detectable by LISA, and find that competing astrophysical assumptions produce a variance of about three orders of magnitude in the expected intrinsic EMRI rate. However, we find that irrespective of the astrophysical model, at least a few EMRIs per year should be detectable by the LISA mission, with up to a few thousands per year under the most optimistic astrophysical assumptions. We also investigate the precision with which LISA will be able to extract the parameters of these sources. We find that typical fractional statistical errors with which the intrinsic parameters (redshifted masses, massive black hole spin and orbital eccentricity) can be recovered are ˜10-6- 10-4 . Luminosity distance (which is required to infer true masses) is inferred to about 10% precision and sky position is localized to a few square degrees, while tests of the multipolar structure of the Kerr metric can be performed to percent-level precision or better.

Legacy of insecurity, a reservoir of hope: the psychosocial impact and developmental implications of the threat of nuclear war on adolescents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rudoy, D.W.

1985-01-01

Five scales were constructed to measure the opinions and expectations of the respondents regarding the threat of nuclear war, the future for both themselves and the world, socio-political activism, and adult stewardship. Two standard scales measuring powerlessness and estrangement - focus of control and alienation - were also employed and analyzed for their interaction with the above opinions and expectations. The respondents were 270 female and male junior and senior volunteers attending the three high schools in Oshkosh, Wisconsin, who completed the above scales anonymously. In three of the five major areas of inquiry, a majority of these youngsters respondedmore » unequivocally and as predicted: (1) they are keenly aware and fearful of the threat of nuclear war and believe such a war to be unlimitable, unsurvivable, and probable in their lifetime - with those most highly threatened more pessimistic about the future, more skeptical of socio-political activism, and more critical of adult stewardship: (b) they are eagerly optimistic about their own personal futures; and (c) they have confidence in socio-political activism. These results are consistent with previous research. The findings with regard to appraisal of the world's future and adult stewardship were less definitive. Both alienation and externality were significantly correlated with negative assessments of the future, socio-political activism, and adult stewardship.« less

Event Rates of Gravitational Waves from merging Intermediate mass Black Holes: based on a Runaway Path to a SMBH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinkai, Hisaaki

2018-01-01

Based on a dynamical formation model of a supermassive black hole (SMBH), we estimate the expected observational profile of gravitational wave at ground-based detectors, such as KAGRA or advanced LIGO/VIRGO. Noting that the second generation of detectors have enough sensitivity from 10 Hz and up, we are able to detect the ring-down gravitational wave of a BH with the mass M < 2 × 103M⊙. This enables us to check the sequence of BH mergers to SMBHs via intermediate-mass BHs. We estimate the number density of galaxies from the halo formation model and estimate the number of BH mergers from the giant molecular cloud model assuming hierarchical growth of merged cores. At the designed KAGRA (and/or advanced LIGO/VIRGO), we find that the BH merger of its total mass M ˜ 60M⊙ is at the peak of the expected mass distribution. With its signal-to-noise ratio ρ = 10(30), we estimate the event rate R ˜ 200(20) per year in the most optimistic case, and we also find that BH mergers in the range M < 150M⊙ are R > 1 per year for ρ = 10. Thus, if we observe a BH with more than 100M⊙ in future gravitational-wave observations, our model naturally explains its source.

Optimistic Superseders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Brendon

2015-01-01

Mr. Brendon Thomas, Director of Technologies at Brisbane Girls Grammar School, looks at the importance of the study of design and digital technologies in schools to develop and nurture the next generation of entrepreneurs.

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias

PubMed Central

Harris, Adam J. L.; de Molière, Laura; Soh, Melinda; Hahn, Ulrike

2017-01-01

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events—they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a ‘severity effect’ whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method. PMID:28278200

Parametric optimal control of uncertain systems under an optimistic value criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo; Zhu, Yuanguo

2018-01-01

It is well known that the optimal control of a linear quadratic model is characterized by the solution of a Riccati differential equation. In many cases, the corresponding Riccati differential equation cannot be solved exactly such that the optimal feedback control may be a complex time-oriented function. In this article, a parametric optimal control problem of an uncertain linear quadratic model under an optimistic value criterion is considered for simplifying the expression of optimal control. Based on the equation of optimality for the uncertain optimal control problem, an approximation method is presented to solve it. As an application, a two-spool turbofan engine optimal control problem is given to show the utility of the proposed model and the efficiency of the presented approximation method.

Optimistic barrier synchronization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1992-01-01

Barrier synchronization is fundamental operation in parallel computation. In many contexts, at the point a processor enters a barrier it knows that it has already processed all the work required of it prior to synchronization. The alternative case, when a processor cannot enter a barrier with the assurance that it has already performed all the necessary pre-synchronization computation, is treated. The problem arises when the number of pre-sychronization messages to be received by a processor is unkown, for example, in a parallel discrete simulation or any other computation that is largely driven by an unpredictable exchange of messages. We describe an optimistic O(log sup 2 P) barrier algorithm for such problems, study its performance on a large-scale parallel system, and consider extensions to general associative reductions as well as associative parallel prefix computations.

Unrealistic comparative optimism: An unsuccessful search for evidence of a genuinely motivational bias.

PubMed

Harris, Adam J L; de Molière, Laura; Soh, Melinda; Hahn, Ulrike

2017-01-01

One of the most accepted findings across psychology is that people are unrealistically optimistic in their judgments of comparative risk concerning future life events-they judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person. Harris and Hahn (2011), however, demonstrated how unbiased (non-optimistic) responses can result in data patterns commonly interpreted as indicative of optimism due to statistical artifacts. In the current paper, we report the results of 5 studies that control for these statistical confounds and observe no evidence for residual unrealistic optimism, even observing a 'severity effect' whereby severe outcomes were overestimated relative to neutral ones (Studies 3 & 4). We conclude that there is no evidence supporting an optimism interpretation of previous results using the prevalent comparison method.

(Ir)reconcilable differences? The debate concerning nursing and technology.

PubMed

Sandelowski, M

1997-01-01

To review and critique the debate concerning nursing and technology. Technology has been considered both at one and at odds with nursing. Mitcham's (1994) concepts of technological optimism and romanticism. Nursing literature since 1960. Historical analysis. Technological optimists in nursing have viewed technology as an extension of and as readily assimilable into humanistic nursing practice, and nursing as socially advantaged by technology. Technological romantics have viewed technology as irreconcilable with nursing culture, as an expression of masculine culture, and as recirculating existing gender and social inequalities. Both optimists and romantics essentialize technology and nursing, treating the two as singular and fixed entities. The (ir)reconcilability of nursing and technology may be a function of how devices are used by people in different contexts, or of the (ir)reconcilability of views of technology in nursing.

Factors affecting return to work after injury or illness: best evidence synthesis of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Cancelliere, Carol; Donovan, James; Stochkendahl, Mette Jensen; Biscardi, Melissa; Ammendolia, Carlo; Myburgh, Corrie; Cassidy, J David

2016-01-01

Work disability is a major personal, financial and public health burden. Predicting future work success is a major focus of research. To identify common prognostic factors for return-to-work across different health and injury conditions and to describe their association with return-to-work outcomes. Medline, Embase, PsychINFO, Cinahl, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and the grey literature were searched from January 1, 2004 to September 1, 2013. Systematic reviews addressing return-to-work in various conditions and injuries were selected. Eligible studies were critically appraised using the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network criteria to identify low risk of bias reviews. Of the 36,193 titles screened and the 94 eligible studies reviewed, 56 systematic reviews were accepted as low risk of bias. Over half of these focused on musculoskeletal disorders, which were primarily spine related (e.g., neck and low back pain). The other half of studies assessed workers with mental health or cardiovascular conditions, stroke, cancer, multiple sclerosis or other non-specified health conditions. Many factors have been assessed, but few consistently across conditions. Common factors associated with positive return-to-work outcomes were higher education and socioeconomic status, higher self-efficacy and optimistic expectations for recovery and return-to-work, lower severity of the injury/illness, return-to-work coordination, and multidisciplinary interventions that include the workplace and stakeholders. Common factors associated with negative return-to-work outcomes were older age, being female, higher pain or disability, depression, higher physical work demands, previous sick leave and unemployment, and activity limitations. Expectations of recovery and return-to-work, pain and disability levels, depression, workplace factors, and access to multidisciplinary resources are important modifiable factors in progressing return-to-work across health and injury conditions. Employers, healthcare providers and other stakeholders can use this information to facilitate return-to-work for injured/ill workers regardless of the specific injury or illness. Future studies should investigate novel interventions, and other factors that may be common across health conditions.

The necessary contradictions of 'community-led' health promotion: a case study of HIV prevention in an Indian red light district.

PubMed

Cornish, Flora; Ghosh, Riddhi

2007-01-01

Health promotion interventions with marginalised groups are increasingly expected to demonstrate genuine community participation in their design and delivery. However, ideals of egalitarian democratic participation are far removed from the starting point of the hierarchical and exploitative social relations that typically characterise marginalised communities. What scope is there for health promotion projects to implement ideals of community leadership within the realities of marginalisation and inequality? We examine how the Sonagachi Project, a successful sex-worker-led HIV prevention project in India, has engaged with the unequal social relations in which it is embedded. Our ethnographic study is based on observation of the Project's participatory activities and 39 interviews with a range of its stakeholders (including sex worker employees of the Project, non-sex-worker development professionals, brothel managers, sex workers' clients). The analysis shows that the project is deeply shaped by its relationships with non-sex-worker interest groups. In order to be permitted access to the red light district, it has had to accommodate the interests of local men's clubs and brothel managers. The economic and organisational capacity to run such a project has depended upon the direct input of development professionals and funding agencies. Thus, the 'community' that leads this project is much wider than a local grouping of marginalised sex workers. We argue that, given existing power relations, the engagement with other interest groups was necessary to the project's success. Moreover, as the project has developed, sex workers' interests and leadership have gained increasing prominence. We suggest that existing optimistic expectations of participation inhibit acknowledgement of the troubling work of balancing power relations. Rather than denying such power relations, projects should be expected to plan for them.

Impact of a smoking and alcohol intervention programme on lung and breast cancer incidence in Denmark: An example of dynamic modelling with Prevent.

PubMed

Soerjomataram, Isabelle; de Vries, Esther; Engholm, Gerda; Paludan-Müller, Georg; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Storm, Hans H; Barendregt, Jan J

2010-09-01

Among the known risk factors, smoking is clearly related to the incidence of lung cancer and alcohol consumption is to breast cancer. In this manuscript we modelled the potential benefits of reductions in smoking or alcohol prevalence for the burden of these cancers. We used Prevent v.3.01 to assess the changes in incidence as a result of risk factor changes. Incidence of lung and breast cancer until 2050 was predicted under two scenarios: ideal (total elimination of smoking and reduction of alcohol intake to maximum 1 units/d for women) and optimistic (decreasing prevalence of risk factors because of a 10% increase in cigarette and alcohol beverage price, repeated every 5 years). Danish data from the household surveys, cancer registration and Eurostat were used. Up to 49% less new lung cancer cases can be expected in 2050 if smoking were to be completely eliminated. Five-yearly 10% price increases may prevent 521 new lung cancer cases in 2050 (21% less cases). An intervention that immediately reduces population alcohol consumption to the recommended level (below 12 g/d) may lower breast cancer by 7%, preventing 445 out of the 6060 expected new cases in 2050. Five-yearly 10% price increases in alcoholic beverages achieved a reduction of half as expected by the ideal scenario, i.e. 4% (262) preventable cases in 2050. The future burden of lung and breast cancer could be markedly reduced by intervening in their risk factors. Prevent illustrates the benefit of interventions and may serve as guidance in political decision-making. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimistic outlook regarding maternity protects against depressive symptoms postpartum.

PubMed

Robakis, Thalia K; Williams, Katherine E; Crowe, Susan; Kenna, Heather; Gannon, Jamie; Rasgon, Natalie L

2015-04-01

The transition to motherhood is a time of elevated risk for clinical depression. Dispositional optimism may be protective against depressive symptoms; however, the arrival of a newborn presents numerous challenges that may be at odds with initially positive expectations, and which may contribute to depressed mood. We have explored the relative contributions of antenatal and postnatal optimism regarding maternity to depressive symptoms in the postnatal period. Ninety-eight pregnant women underwent clinician interview in the third trimester to record psychiatric history, antenatal depressive symptoms, and administer a novel measure of optimism towards maternity. Measures of depressive symptoms, attitudes to maternity, and mother-to-infant bonding were obtained from 97 study completers at monthly intervals through 3 months postpartum. We found a positive effect of antenatal optimism, and a negative effect of postnatal disconfirmation of expectations, on depressive mood postnatally. Postnatal disconfirmation, but not antenatal optimism, was associated with more negative attitudes toward maternity postnatally. Antenatal optimism, but not postnatal disconfirmation, was associated with reduced scores on a mother-to-infant bonding measure. The relationships between antenatal optimism, postnatal disconfirmation of expectations, and postnatal depression held true among primigravidas and multigravidas, as well as among women with prior histories of mood disorders, although antenatal optimism tended to be lower among women with mental health histories. We conclude that cautious antenatal optimism, rather than immoderate optimism or frank pessimism, is the approach that is most protective against postnatal depressive symptoms, and that this is true irrespective of either mood disorder history or parity. Factors predisposing to negative cognitive assessments and impaired mother-to-infant bonding may be substantially different than those associated with depressive symptoms, a finding that merits further study.

The impact of generic language about ability on children's achievement motivation.

PubMed

Cimpian, Andrei

2010-09-01

Nuances in how adults talk about ability may have important consequences for children's sustained involvement and success in an activity. In this study, I tested the hypothesis that children would be less motivated while performing a novel activity if they were told that boys or girls in general are good at this activity (generic language) than if they were told that a particular boy or girl is good at it (non-generic language). Generic language may be detrimental because it expresses normative societal expectations regarding performance. If these expectations are negative, they may cause children to worry about confirming them; if positive, they may cause worries about failing to meet them. Moreover, generic statements may be threatening because they imply that performance is the result of stable traits rather than effort. Ninety-seven 4- to 7-year-olds were asked to play a game in which they succeeded at first but then made a few mistakes. Since young children remain optimistic in achievement situations until the possibility of failure is made clear, I hypothesized that 4- and 5-year-olds would not be affected by the implications of generic language until after they made mistakes; 6- and 7-year-olds, however, may be susceptible earlier. As expected, the older children who heard that boys or girls are good at this game displayed lower motivation (e.g., more negative emotions, lower perceived competence) from the start, while they were still succeeding and receiving praise. Four- and 5-year-olds who heard these generic statements had a similar reaction, but only after they made mistakes. These findings demonstrate that exposure to generic language about ability can be an obstacle to children's motivation and, potentially, their success.

Patient's behavior and attitudes toward the management of benign prostatic hyperplasia among patients with the risk of disease progression: prospective study by "Prostate and Expectations of Treatment Epidemiology Research (PETER) study group".

PubMed

Weibl, Peter; Klatte, Tobias; Laurinc, Peter; Tomaškin, Roman; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Helbich, Miroslav; Fackovcova, Danica; Bujdák, Peter

2015-05-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate patients attitudes with benign prostatic hyperplasia at the risk of progression during a 12-month period of observation. A total of 426 patients from 45 outpatients centers were included and prospectively followed. Inclusion criteria were: age > 50 years, International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS) > 8, prostate volume > 30 cm(3) (transabdominal ultrasound) and PSA > 1.5 to < 10 ng/ml. In all, 28.6% patients were naive, 62.9% used monotherapy (alpha-blocker), and 8.5% combined treatment (alpha-blocker/5alpha-reductase inhibitor/dutasteride). The most bothersome symptoms were the weak urine stream (60.8%) and nocturia (59.2%). Patients expectations from the treatment were stabilization of the disease and reducing the risk of surgery rather than rapid resolution of symptoms. Despite the presence of symptoms, 2.3% patients claimed that benign prostatic hyperplasia/lower urinary tract symptoms had no impact on their quality of life (QoL), in 48.1 % only little impact on QoL, and 47.9% patients percepted their symptoms as severe. Out of 71.4% patients treated previously, 26.5% patients were indecisive about the satisfaction of present treatment. Visual analog score was percepted more optimistically rather than the IPSS. Pearson's correlation r = 0.68 at the beginning and r = 0.83 at the end of the study. Prostate and Expectations of Treatment Epidemiology Research study highlights and reflects on patients behavior and self-perception, patients self-perception of the disease and therapeutic priorities during the 1 year of observation.

Optimistic Outlook Regarding Maternity Protects Against Depressive Symptoms Postpartum

PubMed Central

Robakis, Thalia K.; Williams, Katherine E.; Crowe, Susan; Kenna, Heather; Gannon, Jamie; Rasgon, Natalie L.

2016-01-01

Purpose The transition to motherhood is a time of elevated risk for clinical depression. Dispositional optimism may be protective against depressive symptoms; however the arrival of a newborn presents numerous challenges that may be at odds with initially positive expectations, and which may contribute to depressed mood. We have explored the relative contributions of antenatal and postnatal optimism regarding maternity to depressive symptoms in the postnatal period. Methods 98 pregnant women underwent clinician interview in the third trimester to record psychiatric history, antenatal depressive symptoms, and administer a novel measure of optimism towards maternity. Measures of depressive symptoms, attitudes to maternity, and mother-to-infant bonding were obtained from 97 study completers at monthly intervals through three months postpartum. Results We found a positive effect of antenatal optimism, and a negative effect of postnatal disconfirmation of expectations, on depressive mood postnatally. Postnatal disconfirmation, but not antenatal optimism, was associated with more negative attitudes toward maternity postnatally. Antenatal optimism, but not postnatal disconfirmation, was associated with reduced scores on a mother-to-infant bonding measure. The relationships between antenatal optimism, postnatal disconfirmation of expectations, and postnatal depression held true among primigravidas and multigravidas, as well as among women with prior histories of mood disorders, although antenatal optimism tended to be lower among women with mental health histories. Conclusions We conclude that cautious antenatal optimism, rather than immoderate optimism or frank pessimism, is the approach that is most protective against postnatal depressive symptoms, and that this is true irrespective of either mood disorder history or parity. Factors predisposing to negative cognitive assessments and impaired mother-to-infant bonding may be substantially different than those associated with depressive symptoms, a finding that merits further study. PMID:25088532

Having Twins? How to Stay Healthy

MedlinePlus

... Twin pregnancies can also increase the chances of preeclampsia, a condition in which the mother has increased ... delivery of the babies (the only “cure” for preeclampsia). An optimistic yet careful attitude during your pregnancy ...

Body Image and Self-Esteem (For Teens)

MedlinePlus

... don't fit some media "ideal." This healthy attitude allows you to explore other aspects of growing ... help boost your self-esteem. A positive, optimistic attitude can help people develop strong self-esteem. For ...

Relationship between job stress level and coping strategies used by Hong Kong nurses working in an acute surgical unit.

PubMed

Wang, Wenru; Kong, Amelia Wai Man; Chair, Sek Ying

2011-11-01

The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between job stress and coping strategies of Hong Kong nurses working in an acute surgical unit. This is a descriptive correlational study. Data were collected from 98 Hong Kong surgical nurses using the Nursing Stress Scale and the Jalowiec Coping Scale. Results showed that workload (M = 15.36), lack of support (M = 13.32), and inadequate preparation (M = 12.33) are the most common stressors for Hong Kong surgical nurses. The most frequent strategies used by nurses to cope with stress can be characterized as evasive (M = 19.23), confrontive (M = 17.46), and optimistic (M = 15.81), all of which are also rated as the most effective strategies in reducing stress levels. Only the confrontive, optimistic, supportant, and emotive coping strategies reveal significant correlations (p < .05) with the stress levels of nurses, whereas the evasive, fatalistic, palliative, and self-reliant strategies showed no significant correlation with stress levels (p > .05). Recognizing the impacts of job-related stress and making use of effective coping methods play a vital role in reducing nurse's stress. A change in leadership styles from the managerial level and reallocation of manpower may help reduce job stress. The use of confrontive and optimistic coping strategies in reducing job-related stress for surgical nurses should be advocated and promoted in their daily work. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A cell culture platform for Cryptosporidium that enables long-term cultivation and new tools for the systematic investigation of its biology.

PubMed

Miller, Christopher N; Jossé, Lyne; Brown, Ian; Blakeman, Ben; Povey, Jane; Yiangou, Lyto; Price, Mark; Cinatl, Jindrich; Xue, Wei-Feng; Michaelis, Martin; Tsaousis, Anastasios D

2018-03-01

Cryptosporidium parasites are a major cause of diarrhoea that pose a particular threat to children in developing areas and immunocompromised individuals. Curative therapies and vaccines are lacking, mainly due to lack of a long-term culturing system of this parasite. Here, we show that COLO-680N cells infected with two different Cryptosporidium parvum strains produce sufficient infectious oocysts to infect subsequent cultures, showing a substantial fold increase in production, depending on the experiment, over the most optimistic HCT-8 models. Oocyst identity was confirmed using a variety of microscopic- and molecular-based methods. This culturing system will accelerate research on Cryptosporidium and the development of anti-Cryptosporidium drugs. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Leading bureaucracies to the tipping point: An alternative model of multiple stable equilibrium levels of corruption

PubMed Central

Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Feichtinger, Gustav; Grass, Dieter; Hartl, Richard F.; Kort, Peter M.; Novak, Andreas J.; Seidl, Andrea

2013-01-01

We present a novel model of corruption dynamics in the form of a nonlinear optimal dynamic control problem. It has a tipping point, but one whose origins and character are distinct from that in the classic Schelling (1978) model. The decision maker choosing a level of corruption is the chief or some other kind of authority figure who presides over a bureaucracy whose state of corruption is influenced by the authority figure’s actions, and whose state in turn influences the pay-off for the authority figure. The policy interpretation is somewhat more optimistic than in other tipping models, and there are some surprising implications, notably that reforming the bureaucracy may be of limited value if the bureaucracy takes its cues from a corrupt leader. PMID:23565027

Reversible Parallel Discrete-Event Execution of Large-scale Epidemic Outbreak Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Seal, Sudip K

2010-01-01

The spatial scale, runtime speed and behavioral detail of epidemic outbreak simulations together require the use of large-scale parallel processing. In this paper, an optimistic parallel discrete event execution of a reaction-diffusion simulation model of epidemic outbreaks is presented, with an implementation over themore » $$\\mu$$sik simulator. Rollback support is achieved with the development of a novel reversible model that combines reverse computation with a small amount of incremental state saving. Parallel speedup and other runtime performance metrics of the simulation are tested on a small (8,192-core) Blue Gene / P system, while scalability is demonstrated on 65,536 cores of a large Cray XT5 system. Scenarios representing large population sizes (up to several hundred million individuals in the largest case) are exercised.« less

Upper-surface-blowing flow-turning performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleeman, W. C., Jr.; Phelps, A. E., III

1976-01-01

Jet exhaust flow-turning characteristics were determined for systematic variations in upper-surface blowing exhaust nozzles and trailing-edge flap configuration variables from experimental wind-off (static) flow studies. For conditions with parallel flow exhausting from the nozzle, jet height (as indicated by nozzle exit height) and flap radius were found to be the most important parameters relating to flow turning. Nonparallel flow from the nozzle, as obtained from an internal roof angle and/or side spread angle, had a large favorable effect on flow turning. Comparisons made between static turning results and wind tunnel aerodynamic studies of identical configurations indicated that static flow-turning results can be indicative of wind-on powered lift performance for both good and poor nozzle-flap combinations but, for marginal designs, can lead to overly optimistic assessment of powered lift potential.

Leading bureaucracies to the tipping point: An alternative model of multiple stable equilibrium levels of corruption.

PubMed

Caulkins, Jonathan P; Feichtinger, Gustav; Grass, Dieter; Hartl, Richard F; Kort, Peter M; Novak, Andreas J; Seidl, Andrea

2013-03-16

We present a novel model of corruption dynamics in the form of a nonlinear optimal dynamic control problem. It has a tipping point, but one whose origins and character are distinct from that in the classic Schelling (1978) model. The decision maker choosing a level of corruption is the chief or some other kind of authority figure who presides over a bureaucracy whose state of corruption is influenced by the authority figure's actions, and whose state in turn influences the pay-off for the authority figure. The policy interpretation is somewhat more optimistic than in other tipping models, and there are some surprising implications, notably that reforming the bureaucracy may be of limited value if the bureaucracy takes its cues from a corrupt leader.

A Simple Simulation Technique for Nonnormal Data with Prespecified Skewness, Kurtosis, and Covariance Matrix.

PubMed

Foldnes, Njål; Olsson, Ulf Henning

2016-01-01

We present and investigate a simple way to generate nonnormal data using linear combinations of independent generator (IG) variables. The simulated data have prespecified univariate skewness and kurtosis and a given covariance matrix. In contrast to the widely used Vale-Maurelli (VM) transform, the obtained data are shown to have a non-Gaussian copula. We analytically obtain asymptotic robustness conditions for the IG distribution. We show empirically that popular test statistics in covariance analysis tend to reject true models more often under the IG transform than under the VM transform. This implies that overly optimistic evaluations of estimators and fit statistics in covariance structure analysis may be tempered by including the IG transform for nonnormal data generation. We provide an implementation of the IG transform in the R environment.

FNCS: A Framework for Power System and Communication Networks Co-Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ciraci, Selim; Daily, Jeffrey A.; Fuller, Jason C.

2014-04-13

This paper describes the Fenix framework that uses a federated approach for integrating power grid and communication network simulators. Compared existing approaches, Fenix al- lows co-simulation of both transmission and distribution level power grid simulators with the communication network sim- ulator. To reduce the performance overhead of time synchro- nization, Fenix utilizes optimistic synchronization strategies that make speculative decisions about when the simulators are going to exchange messages. GridLAB-D (a distribution simulator), PowerFlow (a transmission simulator), and ns-3 (a telecommunication simulator) are integrated with the frame- work and are used to illustrate the enhanced performance pro- vided by speculative multi-threadingmore » on a smart grid applica- tion. Our speculative multi-threading approach achieved on average 20% improvement over the existing synchronization methods« less

Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) Evaluation: Accounting for Uncertainty in Sparing Assessments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Leif; Box, Neil; Carter, Katrina; DiFilippo, Denise; Harrington, Sean; Jackson, David; Lutomski, Michael

2012-01-01

There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.

Bayes to the Rescue: Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Has Less Mortality Than High-Flow Oxygen.

PubMed

Modesto I Alapont, Vicent; Khemani, Robinder G; Medina, Alberto; Del Villar Guerra, Pablo; Molina Cambra, Alfred

2017-02-01

The merits of high-flow nasal cannula oxygen versus bubble continuous positive airway pressure are debated in children with pneumonia, with suggestions that randomized controlled trials are needed. In light of a previous randomized controlled trial showing a trend for lower mortality with bubble continuous positive airway pressure, we sought to determine the probability that a new randomized controlled trial would find high-flow nasal cannula oxygen superior to bubble continuous positive airway pressure through a "robust" Bayesian analysis. Sample data were extracted from the trial by Chisti et al, and requisite to "robust" Bayesian analysis, we specified three prior distributions to represent clinically meaningful assumptions. These priors (reference, pessimistic, and optimistic) were used to generate three scenarios to represent the range of possible hypotheses. 1) "Reference": we believe bubble continuous positive airway pressure and high-flow nasal cannula oxygen are equally effective with the same uninformative reference priors; 2) "Sceptic on high-flow nasal cannula oxygen": we believe that bubble continuous positive airway pressure is better than high-flow nasal cannula oxygen (bubble continuous positive airway pressure has an optimistic prior and high-flow nasal cannula oxygen has a pessimistic prior); and 3) "Enthusiastic on high-flow nasal cannula oxygen": we believe that high-flow nasal cannula oxygen is better than bubble continuous positive airway pressure (high-flow nasal cannula oxygen has an optimistic prior and bubble continuous positive airway pressure has a pessimistic prior). Finally, posterior empiric Bayesian distributions were obtained through 100,000 Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. In all three scenarios, there was a high probability for more death from high-flow nasal cannula oxygen compared with bubble continuous positive airway pressure (reference, 0.98; sceptic on high-flow nasal cannula oxygen, 0.982; enthusiastic on high-flow nasal cannula oxygen, 0.742). The posterior 95% credible interval on the difference in mortality identified a future randomized controlled trial would be extremely unlikely to find a mortality benefit for high-flow nasal cannula oxygen over bubble continuous positive airway pressure, regardless of the scenario. Interpreting these findings using the "range of practical equivalence" framework would recommend rejecting the hypothesis that high-flow nasal cannula oxygen is superior to bubble continuous positive airway pressure for these children. For children younger than 5 years with pneumonia, high-flow nasal cannula oxygen has higher mortality than bubble continuous positive airway pressure. A future randomized controlled trial in this population is unlikely to find high-flow nasal cannula oxygen superior to bubble continuous positive airway pressure.

ASSESSING ASTROPHYSICAL UNCERTAINTIES IN DIRECT DETECTION WITH GALAXY SIMULATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sloane, Jonathan D.; Buckley, Matthew R.; Brooks, Alyson M.

2016-11-01

We study the local dark matter velocity distribution in simulated Milky Way-mass galaxies, generated at high resolution with both dark matter and baryons. We find that the dark matter in the solar neighborhood is influenced appreciably by the inclusion of baryons, increasing the speed of dark matter particles compared to dark matter-only simulations. The gravitational potential due to the presence of a baryonic disk increases the amount of high velocity dark matter, resulting in velocity distributions that are more similar to the Maxwellian Standard Halo Model than predicted from dark matter-only simulations. Furthermore, the velocity structures present in baryonic simulationsmore » possess a greater diversity than expected from dark matter-only simulations. We show that the impact on the direct detection experiments LUX, DAMA/Libra, and CoGeNT using our simulated velocity distributions, and explore how resolution and halo mass within the Milky Way’s estimated mass range impact the results. A Maxwellian fit to the velocity distribution tends to overpredict the amount of dark matter in the high velocity tail, even with baryons, and thus leads to overly optimistic direct detection bounds on models that are dependent on this region of phase space for an experimental signal. Our work further demonstrates that it is critical to transform simulated velocity distributions to the lab frame of reference, due to the fact that velocity structure in the solar neighborhood appears when baryons are included. There is more velocity structure present when baryons are included than in dark matter-only simulations. Even when baryons are included, the importance of the velocity structure is not as apparent in the Galactic frame of reference as in the Earth frame.« less

Local measles vaccination gaps in Germany and the role of vaccination providers.

PubMed

Eichner, Linda; Wjst, Stephanie; Brockmann, Stefan O; Wolfers, Kerstin; Eichner, Martin

2017-08-14

Measles elimination in Europe is an urgent public health goal, yet despite the efforts of its member states, vaccination gaps and outbreaks occur. This study explores local vaccination heterogeneity in kindergartens and municipalities of a German county. Data on children from mandatory school enrolment examinations in 2014/15 in Reutlingen county were used. Children with unknown vaccination status were either removed from the analysis (best case) or assumed to be unvaccinated (worst case). Vaccination data were translated into expected outbreak probabilities. Physicians and kindergartens with statistically outstanding numbers of under-vaccinated children were identified. A total of 170 (7.1%) of 2388 children did not provide a vaccination certificate; 88.3% (worst case) or 95.1% (best case) were vaccinated at least once against measles. Based on the worst case vaccination coverage, <10% of municipalities and <20% of kindergartens were sufficiently vaccinated to be protected against outbreaks. Excluding children without a vaccination certificate (best case) leads to over-optimistic views: the overall outbreak probability in case of a measles introduction lies between 39.5% (best case) and 73.0% (worst case). Four paediatricians were identified who accounted for 41 of 109 unvaccinated children and for 47 of 138 incomplete vaccinations; GPs showed significantly higher rates of missing vaccination certificates and unvaccinated or under-vaccinated children than paediatricians. Missing vaccination certificates pose a severe problem regarding the interpretability of vaccination data. Although the coverage for at least one measles vaccination is higher in the studied county than in most South German counties and higher than the European average, many severe and potentially dangerous vaccination gaps occur locally. If other federal German states and EU countries show similar vaccination variability, measles elimination may not succeed in Europe.

Using the Repertory Grid Technique to Examine Trainee Clinical Psychologists' Construal of Their Personal and Professional Development.

PubMed

Hill, Katy; Wittkowski, Anja; Hodgkinson, Emma; Bell, Richard; Hare, Dougal J

2016-09-01

The repertory grid technique was used to explore how 26 third-year trainee clinical psychologists construed their personal and professional selves over the course of training and into the future. Each trainee completed a demographic questionnaire and a repertory grid with 10 elements: four 'personal self' elements, four 'professional self' elements and two 'qualified clinical psychologist' elements. They then rated the 10 elements on 10 bipolar constructs of their choosing. Trainees' personal and professional selves were construed to be similar to each other. Trainees had low self-esteem and reported currently feeling anxious, stressed, unsettled and lacking an appropriate work-life balance. These difficulties were attributed to the demands of training and were expected to resolve once training was completed with future selves being construed as similar to ideal selves. Suggestions for future research with improved methodology are made, and the implications of the findings for trainees, training providers and employers of newly qualified clinical psychologists are given. The overall implication being that stress in training is normative and the profession has a duty to normalize this and ensure that self-care and personal development are recognized as core competencies of the clinical psychologist for the benefit of its members and their clients. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Clinical psychology trainees experience training as demanding and stressful, which negatively impacts on their personal and professional self-image and self-esteem. However, they are optimistic that they will become more like their ideal self in the future. Stress in clinical training (and beyond) is normative, and thus, personal development and self-care should be recognized as clinical psychologist's core competencies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Lake Wobegon Effect: Are All Cancer Patients above Average?

PubMed Central

Wolf, Jacqueline H; Wolf, Kevin S

2013-01-01

Context When elderly patients face a terminal illness such as lung cancer, most are unaware that what we term in this article “the Lake Wobegon effect” taints the treatment advice imparted to them by their oncologists. In framing treatment plans, cancer specialists tend to intimate that elderly patients are like the children living in Garrison Keillor's mythical Lake Wobegon: above average and thus likely to exceed expectations. In this article, we use the story of our mother's death from lung cancer to investigate the consequences of elderly people's inability to reconcile the grave reality of their illness with the overly optimistic predictions of their physicians. Methods In this narrative analysis, we examine the routine treatment of elderly, terminally ill cancer patients through alternating lenses: the lens of a historian of medicine who also teaches ethics to medical students and the lens of an actuary who is able to assess physicians’ claims for the outcome of medical treatments. Findings We recognize that a desire to instill hope in patients shapes physicians’ messages. We argue, however, that the automatic optimism conveyed to elderly, dying patients by cancer specialists prompts those patients to choose treatment that is ineffective and debilitating. Rather than primarily prolong life, treatments most notably diminish patients’ quality of life, weaken the ability of patients and their families to prepare for their deaths, and contribute significantly to the unsustainable costs of the U.S. health care system. Conclusions The case described in this article suggests how physicians can better help elderly, terminally ill patients make medical decisions that are less damaging to them and less costly to the health care system. PMID:24320166

The Lake Wobegon effect: are all cancer patients above average?

PubMed

Wolf, Jacqueline H; Wolf, Kevin S

2013-12-01

When elderly patients face a terminal illness such as lung cancer, most are unaware that what we term in this article "the Lake Wobegon effect" taints the treatment advice imparted to them by their oncologists. In framing treatment plans, cancer specialists tend to intimate that elderly patients are like the children living in Garrison Keillor's mythical Lake Wobegon: above average and thus likely to exceed expectations. In this article, we use the story of our mother's death from lung cancer to investigate the consequences of elderly people's inability to reconcile the grave reality of their illness with the overly optimistic predictions of their physicians. In this narrative analysis, we examine the routine treatment of elderly, terminally ill cancer patients through alternating lenses: the lens of a historian of medicine who also teaches ethics to medical students and the lens of an actuary who is able to assess physicians' claims for the outcome of medical treatments. We recognize that a desire to instill hope in patients shapes physicians' messages. We argue, however, that the automatic optimism conveyed to elderly, dying patients by cancer specialists prompts those patients to choose treatment that is ineffective and debilitating. Rather than primarily prolong life, treatments most notably diminish patients' quality of life, weaken the ability of patients and their families to prepare for their deaths, and contribute significantly to the unsustainable costs of the U.S. health care system. The case described in this article suggests how physicians can better help elderly, terminally ill patients make medical decisions that are less damaging to them and less costly to the health care system. © 2013 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Long-run effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the US agricultural economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campiche, Jody L.; Bryant, Henry L.; Richardson, James W.

2010-01-01

Renewable energy production has been expanding at a rapid pace. New advances in cellulosic ethanol technologies have the potential to displace the use of petroleum as a transportation fuel, and could have significant effects on both the agricultural economy and the environment. In this letter, the effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the mix of ethanol feedstocks employed and on the US agricultural economy are examined. Results indicate that, as expected, cellulosic ethanol production increases by a substantial amount as conversion technology improves. Corn production increases initially following the introduction of cellulosic technology, because producers enjoy new revenue from sales of corn stover. After cellulosic ethanol production becomes substantially cheaper, however, acres are shifted from corn production to all other agricultural commodities. Essentially, this new technology could facilitate the exploitation of a previously under-employed resource (corn stover), resulting in an improvement in overall welfare. In the most optimistic scenario considered, 68% of US ethanol is derived from cellulosic sources, coarse grain production is reduced by about 2%, and the prices of all food commodities are reduced modestly.

Excessive and addictive gaming control using counselling agent in online game design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ididi, Italumeh O.; Hassan, Sa'adah; Ghani, Abdul Azim Abd; Ali, Norhayati Mohd

2017-10-01

In recent times, online game play has become a food for thought to concerned individuals, researchers and authorities of various countries due to its excessive and addictive usage. Although, various government have taken certain measures such as shutting down internet cafe at certain hours of the day, censoring the most brutal, offensive and aggressive sections of certain games before they are released. Researchers have advised developers on ways of limiting harm on players by suggesting design changes on time limit. Furthermore, researchers have also suggested that online game distributors ought to make available appropriate referral services. The impart of the above are yet to make any remarkable impact on players. In this paper, we have proposed a Counseling Agent model integrating informative and self-appraisal messages in online game design as a control measure. Informative and self-appraisal messaging in games have proven optimistic through making positive impact on player's thoughts and behavior towards gaming. These messages are expected to remind players about the negative impact of excessive and addictive gaming habits, as well as suggesting possible reductive solutions through message streaming.

Search for weakly-produced supersymmetry in same-sign di-lepton final state at the square root ofs = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hines, Elizabeth J.

A search for weakly-produced Chargino1, Neutralino2 supersymmetric particles decaying to two final state electrons or muons with the same electric charge is presented. The analysis is performed on 20.3fb-1 of integrated luminosity collected in 2012 with the Atlas Detector at the Large Hadron Collider, running at √s = 8 TeV. Pairs of like-sign leptons are collected and discriminated against background using Boosted Decision Trees trained on compressed supersymmetric simplified models. No significant excesses above background expectations are observed. The 95% confidence limits are placed on Chargino1 Neutralino2 pairs decaying via W and Z bosons and via intermediate sleptons with two different assumptions on the relative slepton mass. In the most optimistic scenarios considered, Chargino1 below 410 GeV are excluded assuming a massless LSP. In the compressed scenario, Chargino1 20 GeV. Results from this analysis are also combined with those from a complementary search in the three lepton final state.

Lifestyle modification in the management of the metabolic syndrome: achievements and challenges

PubMed Central

Grave, Riccardo Dalle; Calugi, Simona; Centis, Elena; Marzocchi, Rebecca; Ghoch, Marwan El; Marchesini, Giulio

2010-01-01

Lifestyle modification based on behavior therapy is the most important and effective strategy to manage the metabolic syndrome. Modern lifestyle modification therapy combines specific recommendations on diet and exercise with behavioral and cognitive strategies. The intervention may be delivered face-to-face or in groups, or in groups combined with individual sessions. The main challenge of treatment is helping patients maintain healthy behavior changes in the long term. In the last few years, several strategies have been evaluated to improve the long-term effect of lifestyle modification. Promising results have been achieved by combining lifestyle modification with pharmacotherapy, using meals replacement, setting higher physical activity goals, and long-term care. The key role of cognitive processes in the success/failure of weight loss and maintenance suggests that new cognitive procedures and strategies should be included in the traditional lifestyle modification interventions, in order to help patients build a mind-set favoring long-term lifestyle changes. These new strategies raise optimistic expectations for an effective treatment of metabolic syndrome with lifestyle modifications, provided public health programs to change the environment where patients live support them. PMID:21437107

Resolution of an uncertain closed-loop logistics model: an application to fuzzy linear programs with risk analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Hsiao-Fan; Hsu, Hsin-Wei

2010-11-01

With the urgency of global warming, green supply chain management, logistics in particular, has drawn the attention of researchers. Although there are closed-loop green logistics models in the literature, most of them do not consider the uncertain environment in general terms. In this study, a generalized model is proposed where the uncertainty is expressed by fuzzy numbers. An interval programming model is proposed by the defined means and mean square imprecision index obtained from the integrated information of all the level cuts of fuzzy numbers. The resolution for interval programming is based on the decision maker (DM)'s preference. The resulting solution provides useful information on the expected solutions under a confidence level containing a degree of risk. The results suggest that the more optimistic the DM is, the better is the resulting solution. However, a higher risk of violation of the resource constraints is also present. By defining this probable risk, a solution procedure was developed with numerical illustrations. This provides a DM trade-off mechanism between logistic cost and the risk. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Search for long-lived gravitational-wave transients coincident with long gamma-ray bursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aasi, J.; Abadie, J.; Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T.; Abernathy, M. R.; Accadia, T.; Acernese, F.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Adhikari, R. X.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Amador Ceron, E.; Amariutei, D.; Anderson, R. A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Arceneaux, C.; Areeda, J.; Ast, S.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Austin, L.; Aylott, B. E.; Babak, S.; Baker, P. T.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barker, D.; Barnum, S. H.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barton, M. A.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J.; Bauchrowitz, J.; Bauer, Th. S.; Bebronne, M.; Behnke, B.; Bejger, M.; Beker, M. G.; Bell, A. S.; Bell, C.; Belopolski, I.; Bergmann, G.; Berliner, J. M.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Bessis, D.; Betzwieser, J.; Beyersdorf, P. T.; Bhadbhade, T.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Birch, J.; Bitossi, M.; Bizouard, M. A.; Black, E.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackburn, L.; Blair, D.; Blom, M.; Bock, O.; Bodiya, T. P.; Boer, M.; Bogan, C.; Bond, C.; Bondu, F.; Bonelli, L.; Bonnand, R.; Bork, R.; Born, M.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bosi, L.; Bowers, J.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brannen, C. A.; Brau, J. E.; Breyer, J.; Briant, T.; Bridges, D. O.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Britzger, M.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brückner, F.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Campsie, P.; Cannon, K. C.; Canuel, B.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Carbognani, F.; Carbone, L.; Caride, S.; Castiglia, A.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C.; Cesarini, E.; Chakraborty, R.; Chalermsongsak, T.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Chen, X.; Chen, Y.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Cho, H. S.; Chow, J.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, D. E.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Colombini, M.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conte, A.; Conte, R.; Cook, D.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cordier, M.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S.; Couvares, P.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M.; Coyne, D. C.; Craig, K.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Crowder, S. G.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dahl, K.; Dal Canton, T.; Damjanic, M.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dattilo, V.; Daudert, B.; Daveloza, H.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Daw, E. J.; Day, R.; Dayanga, T.; De Rosa, R.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; Del Pozzo, W.; Deleeuw, E.; Deléglise, S.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dereli, H.; Dergachev, V.; DeRosa, R.; DeSalvo, R.; Dhurandhar, S.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Díaz, M.; Dietz, A.; Dmitry, K.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Dumas, J.-C.; Dwyer, S.; Eberle, T.; Edwards, M.; Effler, A.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Endrőczi, G.; Essick, R.; Etzel, T.; Evans, K.; Evans, M.; Evans, T.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fairhurst, S.; Fang, Q.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W.; Favata, M.; Fazi, D.; Fehrmann, H.; Feldbaum, D.; Ferrante, I.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Finn, L. S.; Fiori, I.; Fisher, R.; Flaminio, R.; Foley, E.; Foley, S.; Forsi, E.; Fotopoulos, N.; Fournier, J.-D.; Franco, S.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frede, M.; Frei, M.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Fricke, T. T.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fujimoto, M.-K.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gair, J.; Gammaitoni, L.; Garcia, J.; Garufi, F.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; Gergely, L.; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giampanis, S.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gil-Casanova, S.; Gill, C.; Gleason, J.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gordon, N.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S.; Goßler, S.; Gouaty, R.; Graef, C.; Graff, P. B.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greenhalgh, R. J. S.; Gretarsson, A. M.; Griffo, C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grover, K.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guido, C.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hall, B.; Hall, E.; Hammer, D.; Hammond, G.; Hanke, M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hanson, J.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Harstad, E. D.; Hartman, M. T.; Haughian, K.; Hayama, K.; Heefner, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hodge, K. A.; Holt, K.; Holtrop, M.; Hong, T.; Hooper, S.; Horrom, T.; Hosken, D. J.; Hough, J.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y.; Hua, Z.; Huang, V.; Huerta, E. A.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh, M.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Iafrate, J.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isogai, T.; Ivanov, A.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacobson, M.; James, E.; Jang, H.; Jang, Y. J.; Jaranowski, P.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Haris, K.; Kalmus, P.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Kasprzack, M.; Kasturi, R.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, H.; Kaufman, K.; Kawabe, K.; Kawamura, S.; Kawazoe, F.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kells, W.; Keppel, D. G.; Khalaidovski, A.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kim, B. K.; Kim, C.; Kim, K.; Kim, N.; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kinzel, D. L.; Kissel, J. S.; Klimenko, S.; Kline, J.; Koehlenbeck, S.; Kokeyama, K.; Kondrashov, V.; Koranda, S.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D.; Kremin, A.; Kringel, V.; Królak, A.; Kucharczyk, C.; Kudla, S.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, A.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kurdyumov, R.; Kwee, P.; Landry, M.; Lantz, B.; Larson, S.; Lasky, P. D.; Lawrie, C.; Lazzarini, A.; Le Roux, A.; Leaci, P.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C.-H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, J.; Lee, J.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levine, B.; Lewis, J. B.; Lhuillier, V.; Li, T. G. F.; Lin, A. C.; Littenberg, T. B.; Litvine, V.; Liu, F.; Liu, H.; Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Lloyd, D.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lockett, V.; Lodhia, D.; Loew, K.; Logue, J.; Lombardi, A. L.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J.; Luan, J.; Lubinski, M. J.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Macarthur, J.; Macdonald, E.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magana-Sandoval, F.; Mageswaran, M.; Mailand, K.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Manca, G. M.; Mandel, I.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A.; Maros, E.; Marque, J.; Martelli, F.; Martin, I. W.; Martin, R. M.; Martinelli, L.; Martynov, D.; Marx, J. N.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Matzner, R. A.; Mavalvala, N.; May, G.; Mazumder, N.; Mazzolo, G.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Mehmet, M.; Meidam, J.; Meier, T.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mercer, R. A.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Meyer, M. S.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, J.; Minenkov, Y.; Mingarelli, C. M. F.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moe, B.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Mokler, F.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morgado, N.; Mori, T.; Morriss, S. R.; Mossavi, K.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, C. L.; Mueller, G.; Mukherjee, S.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Murphy, D.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Nagy, M. F.; Nanda Kumar, D.; Nardecchia, I.; Nash, T.; Naticchioni, L.; Nayak, R.; Necula, V.; Nelemans, G.; Neri, I.; Neri, M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T.; Nishida, E.; Nishizawa, A.; Nitz, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E.; Nuttall, L. K.; Ochsner, E.; O'Dell, J.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oppermann, P.; O'Reilly, B.; Ortega Larcher, W.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Osthelder, C.; Ott, C. D.; Ottaway, D. J.; Ottens, R. S.; Ou, J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Padilla, C.; Pai, A.; Palomba, C.; Pan, Y.; Pankow, C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoletti, R.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Pedraza, M.; Peiris, P.; Penn, S.; Perreca, A.; Phelps, M.; Pichot, M.; Pickenpack, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pinard, L.; Pindor, B.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poeld, J.; Poggiani, R.; Poole, V.; Poux, C.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Price, L. R.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Rácz, I.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajalakshmi, G.; Rakhmanov, M.; Ramet, C.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Re, V.; Reed, C. M.; Reed, T.; Regimbau, T.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Ricci, F.; Riesen, R.; Riles, K.; Robertson, N. A.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Roddy, S.; Rodriguez, C.; Rodruck, M.; Roever, C.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romanov, G.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Salemi, F.; Sammut, L.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J.; Sannibale, V.; Santiago-Prieto, I.; Saracco, E.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Savage, R.; Schilling, R.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schulz, B.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwinberg, P.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Seifert, F.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sergeev, A.; Shaddock, D.; Shah, S.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shaltev, M.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Sidery, T. L.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sigg, D.; Simakov, D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L.; Sintes, A. M.; Skelton, G. R.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Slutsky, J.; Smith, J. R.; Smith, M. R.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith-Lefebvre, N. D.; Soden, K.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Souradeep, T.; Sperandio, L.; Staley, A.; Steinert, E.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steplewski, S.; Stevens, D.; Stochino, A.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Strigin, S.; Stroeer, A. S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Susmithan, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B.; Szeifert, G.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tang, L.; Tanner, D. B.; Tarabrin, S. P.; Taylor, R.; ter Braack, A. P. M.; Thirugnanasambandam, M. P.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thorne, K. S.; Thrane, E.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Tomlinson, C.; Toncelli, A.; Tonelli, M.; Torre, O.; Torres, C. V.; Torrie, C. I.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Tse, M.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Vallisneri, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; van der Putten, S.; van der Sluys, M. V.; van Heijningen, J.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vaulin, R.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Verkindt, D.; Verma, S.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Vincent-Finley, R.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vlcek, B.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Vousden, W. D.; Vrinceanu, D.; Vyachanin, S. P.; Wade, A.; Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Waldman, S. J.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Wan, Y.; Wang, J.; Wang, M.; Wang, X.; Wanner, A.; Ward, R. L.; Was, M.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Welborn, T.; Wen, L.; Wessels, P.; West, M.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whitcomb, S. E.; White, D. J.; Whiting, B. F.; Wibowo, S.; Wiesner, K.; Wilkinson, C.; Williams, L.; Williams, R.; Williams, T.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M.; Winkelmann, L.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Worden, J.; Yablon, J.; Yakushin, I.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yang, H.; Yeaton-Massey, D.; Yoshida, S.; Yum, H.; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, C.; Zhu, H.; Zhu, X. J.; Zotov, N.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.

2013-12-01

Long gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been linked to extreme core-collapse supernovae from massive stars. Gravitational waves (GW) offer a probe of the physics behind long GRBs. We investigate models of long-lived (˜10-1000s) GW emission associated with the accretion disk of a collapsed star or with its protoneutron star remnant. Using data from LIGO’s fifth science run, and GRB triggers from the Swift experiment, we perform a search for unmodeled long-lived GW transients. Finding no evidence of GW emission, we place 90% confidence-level upper limits on the GW fluence at Earth from long GRBs for three waveforms inspired by a model of GWs from accretion disk instabilities. These limits range from F<3.5ergscm-2 to F<1200ergscm-2, depending on the GRB and on the model, allowing us to probe optimistic scenarios of GW production out to distances as far as ≈33Mpc. Advanced detectors are expected to achieve strain sensitivities 10× better than initial LIGO, potentially allowing us to probe the engines of the nearest long GRBs.

Interpretation of lung cancer study outcomes.

PubMed

Cortinovis, Diego; Abbate, Marida; Bidoli, Paolo; Pelizzoni, Davide; Canova, Stefania

2015-11-01

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in developed countries. However, in the last few years we observed an important acceleration in drug development due to oncogenic driver tumors discovery. Sharing and putting together preclinical data from benchmark and data from clinical research is the scientific paradigm that allows real breakthrough in clinical practice in this field, but only a few targeted agents are worthy and practice changing. The clinical research and proper use of statistical methodology are the pillars to continue to achieve important goals like improvement of overall survival. A good medical oncologist should be able to critically read a scientific paper and move from the observed outcomes into clinical perspective. Despite clinical improvements, sometimes the union of promising targeted agents and optimistic expectations misrepresent the reality and the value of clinical research. In this article, we try to analyze the meaning of statistical assumptions from clinical trials, especially in lung cancer, through a critical review of the concept of value-based medicine. We also attempt to give the reader some practical tools to weigh scientific value of literature reports.

Cognitive biases can affect moral intuitions about cognitive enhancement

PubMed Central

Caviola, Lucius; Mannino, Adriano; Savulescu, Julian; Faulmüller, Nadira

2014-01-01

Research into cognitive biases that impair human judgment has mostly been applied to the area of economic decision-making. Ethical decision-making has been comparatively neglected. Since ethical decisions often involve very high individual as well as collective stakes, analyzing how cognitive biases affect them can be expected to yield important results. In this theoretical article, we consider the ethical debate about cognitive enhancement (CE) and suggest a number of cognitive biases that are likely to affect moral intuitions and judgments about CE: status quo bias, loss aversion, risk aversion, omission bias, scope insensitivity, nature bias, and optimistic bias. We find that there are more well-documented biases that are likely to cause irrational aversion to CE than biases in the opposite direction. This suggests that common attitudes about CE are predominantly negatively biased. Within this new perspective, we hope that subsequent research will be able to elaborate this hypothesis and develop effective de-biasing techniques that can help increase the rationality of the public CE debate and thus improve our ethical decision-making. PMID:25360088

Snowplow simulator training evaluation : research notes

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-11-01

Two years of experience with simulator training for snowplow operators in Arizona leaves an optimistic feeling about the potential of simulators as an integral part of comprehensive winter maintenance and driver-skill training programs. Further resea...

Potential Habitable Zone Exomoon Candidates and Radial Velocity Estimates for Giant Kepler HZ Candidates.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, M.; Kane, S.; Kopparapu, R.; Seperuelo Duarte, E.; Gelino, D.; Whittenmyer, R.

2017-12-01

The NASA Kepler mission has discovered thousands of new planetary candidates, many of which have been confirmed through follow-up observations. A primary goal of the mission is to determine the occurrence rate of terrestrial-size planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) of their host stars. A major product of the Habitable Zone Working Group (HZWG) is a list of HZ exoplanet candidates from the Kepler Data Release 24 Q1- Q17 data vetting process [1]. We used a variety of criteria regarding HZ boundaries and planetary sizes to produce complete lists of HZ candidates, including a catalog of 104 candidates within the optimistic HZ. We cross-matched our HZ candidates with the Data Release 25 stellar properties and confirmed planet properties to provide robust stellar parameters and candidate dispositions. We also performed dynamical analysis simulations for multi-planet systems that contain candidates with radii less than two Earth radii as a step toward validation of those systems. From this list we found 39 planet candidates greater than 3 earth radii residing in the Optimistic Habitable Zone of their host star. While giant planets are not favored in the search for eta Earth, they do indicate a potential for large, potentially rocky moons residing in the habitable zone. These giant planets can also provide a potential for a wider range of "habitable" incident flux due to additional energy sources from tidal energy, etc. Thus we analyzed each giant planet, estimating their mass and then calculating the estimated Radial Velocity Semi Amplitudes of each planet for use in follow up observations. We then calculated the planets Hill radius and determined the maximum angular separation of potential moons. This presentation will describe the highlights of the HZ catalog giant planets and the plans for further validation of HZ candidates and follow-up studies. Fig. 1 - Plots both the unconfirmed and confirmed Giant (>3⊕R) Kepler candidates expected Radial Velocity signatures vs the Kepler Magnitude of their host star. References: [1] Kane, S.R., Hill, M.L., Kasting, J.F., et al. 2016, ApJ, 830, 1

An Era of Global Scarcity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abelson, Philip H.

1973-01-01

Discusses problems facing the world with increasing demands for food, energy, raw materials and goods, and at the same time confronted with a population explosion. Views the future of the United States optimistically when compared to less developed countries. (JR)

Ghost reefs: Nautical charts document large spatial scale of coral reef loss over 240 years

PubMed Central

McClenachan, Loren; O’Connor, Grace; Neal, Benjamin P.; Pandolfi, John M.; Jackson, Jeremy B. C.

2017-01-01

Massive declines in population abundances of marine animals have been documented over century-long time scales. However, analogous loss of spatial extent of habitat-forming organisms is less well known because georeferenced data are rare over long time scales, particularly in subtidal, tropical marine regions. We use high-resolution historical nautical charts to quantify changes to benthic structure over 240 years in the Florida Keys, finding an overall loss of 52% (SE, 6.4%) of the area of the seafloor occupied by corals. We find a strong spatial dimension to this decline; the spatial extent of coral in Florida Bay and nearshore declined by 87.5% (SE, 7.2%) and 68.8% (SE, 7.5%), respectively, whereas that of offshore areas of coral remained largely intact. These estimates add to finer-scale loss in live coral cover exceeding 90% in some locations in recent decades. The near-complete elimination of the spatial coverage of nearshore coral represents an underappreciated spatial component of the shifting baseline syndrome, with important lessons for other species and ecosystems. That is, modern surveys are typically designed to assess change only within the species’ known, extant range. For species ranging from corals to sea turtles, this approach may overlook spatial loss over longer time frames, resulting in both overly optimistic views of their current conservation status and underestimates of their restoration potential. PMID:28913420

Optimism as a Prior Belief about the Probability of Future Reward

PubMed Central

Kalra, Aditi; Seriès, Peggy

2014-01-01

Optimists hold positive a priori beliefs about the future. In Bayesian statistical theory, a priori beliefs can be overcome by experience. However, optimistic beliefs can at times appear surprisingly resistant to evidence, suggesting that optimism might also influence how new information is selected and learned. Here, we use a novel Pavlovian conditioning task, embedded in a normative framework, to directly assess how trait optimism, as classically measured using self-report questionnaires, influences choices between visual targets, by learning about their association with reward progresses. We find that trait optimism relates to an a priori belief about the likelihood of rewards, but not losses, in our task. Critically, this positive belief behaves like a probabilistic prior, i.e. its influence reduces with increasing experience. Contrary to findings in the literature related to unrealistic optimism and self-beliefs, it does not appear to influence the iterative learning process directly. PMID:24853098

Is optimism real?

PubMed

Simmons, Joseph P; Massey, Cade

2012-11-01

Is optimism real, or are optimistic forecasts just cheap talk? To help answer this question, we investigated whether optimistic predictions persist in the face of large incentives to be accurate. We asked National Football League football fans to predict the winner of a single game. Roughly half (the partisans) predicted a game involving their favorite team, and the other half (the neutrals) predicted a game involving 2 teams they were neutral about. Participants were promised either a small incentive ($5) or a large incentive ($50) for correctly predicting the game's winner. Optimism emerged even when incentives were large, as partisans were much more likely than neutrals to predict partisans' favorite teams to win. Strong optimism also emerged among participants whose responses to follow-up questions strongly suggested that they believed the predictions they made. This research supports the claim that optimism is real. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

Optimism following a tornado disaster.

PubMed

Suls, Jerry; Rose, Jason P; Windschitl, Paul D; Smith, Andrew R

2013-05-01

Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Students and community residents reported being less vulnerable than their peers at 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year after the disaster. In Studies 1 and 2, absolute risk estimates were more optimistic with time, whereas comparative vulnerability was stable. Residents of affected neighborhoods (Study 3), surprisingly, reported less comparative vulnerability and lower "gut-level" numerical likelihood estimates at 6 months, but later their estimates resembled the unaffected residents. Likelihood estimates (10%-12%), however, exceeded the 1% risk calculated by storm experts, and gut-level versus statistical-level estimates were more optimistic. Although people believed they had approximately a 1-in-10 chance of injury from future tornadoes (i.e., an overestimate), they thought their risk was lower than peers.

Relationships between sensory evaluations of beef tenderness, shear force measurements and consumer characteristics.

PubMed

Van Wezemael, Lynn; De Smet, Stefaan; Ueland, Øydis; Verbeke, Wim

2014-07-01

The supply of tender beef is an important challenge for the beef industry. Knowledge about the profile of consumers who are more optimistic or more accurate in their tenderness evaluations is important for product development and beef marketing purposes. Central location tests of beef steaks were performed in Norway and Belgium (n=218). Instrumental and sensorial tenderness of three muscles from Belgian Blue and Norwegian Red cattle was reported. Consumers who are optimistically evaluating tenderness were found to be more often male, less food neophobic, more positive towards beef healthiness, and showed fewer concerns about beef safety. No clear profile emerged for consumers who assessed tenderness similar to shear force measurements, which suggests that tenderness is mainly evaluated subjectively. The results imply a window of opportunities in tenderness improvements, and allow targeting a market segment which is less critical towards beef tenderness. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-reported experience of bullying of students who stutter: relations with life satisfaction, life orientation, and self-esteem.

PubMed

Blood, Gordon W; Blood, Ingrid M; Tramontana, G Michael; Sylvia, Anna J; Boyle, Michael P; Motzko, Gina R

2011-10-01

Self-reported self-esteem, life orientation, satisfaction with life, and bullying were examined in relation to victimization experiences among 54 students who stuttered and 54 students who did not stutter. Those who stuttered reported greater, i.e., clinically significant, victimization (44.4%) than students who did not stutter (9.2%). Significant differences were found between means for self-esteem and life orientation, with students who stuttered reporting lower self-esteem and less optimistic life orientation than those who did not stutter. In both groups of students, high victimization scores had statistically significant negative correlations with optimistic life orientation, high self-esteem, and high satisfaction with life scores. Given the increased likelihood of students who stuttered being bullied, the negative relation of adjustment variables and bullying, and the potentially negative long-term effects of bullying, increased vigilance and early intervention are discussed.

Linear and Nonlinear Dynamics of Heart Rate Variability are Correlated with Purpose in Life and Degree of Optimism in Anxiety Disorder Patients.

PubMed

Oh, Jihoon; Chae, Jeong-Ho

2018-04-01

Although heart rate variability (HRV) may be a crucial marker of mental health, how it is related to positive psychological factors (i.e. attitude to life and positive thinking) is largely unknown. Here we investigated the correlation of HRV linear and nonlinear dynamics with psychological scales that measured degree of optimism and happiness in patients with anxiety disorders. Results showed that low- to high-frequency HRV ratio (LF/HF) was increased and the HRV HF parameter was decreased in subjects who were more optimistic and who felt happier in daily living. Nonlinear analysis also showed that HRV dispersion and regulation were significantly correlated with the subjects' optimism and purpose in life. Our findings showed that HRV properties might be related to degree of optimistic perspectives on life and suggests that HRV markers of autonomic nervous system function could reflect positive human mind states.

The Egalitarian Optimist and the Confrontation of Prejudice

PubMed Central

Wellman, Justin A.; Czopp, Alexander M.; Geers, Andrew L.

2010-01-01

Standing up against prejudice often requires one to surmount powerful inter- and intra-individual forces. Egalitarian standards alone are often insufficient to surmount these forces. As individuals high in dispositional optimism vigorously pursue valued goals, even when threatened with obstacles, we propose that the combination of high optimism and salient egalitarian goals predicts the confrontation of prejudice. In the present study, individuals high and low in both optimism and prejudice were randomly assigned to hear a racist joke followed by an argument, or to hear the same joke but without the argument. We found that low-prejudice optimists who had their chronic egalitarian values made salient by hearing the argument were highly likely to confront a later act of prejudice. Self-report data closely mirrored this behavioral finding. These findings support a self-regulatory approach to confrontation and suggest new avenues for combating prejudice. PMID:20336167

"Hoping for a normal life again": reintegration after fistula repair in rural Tanzania.

PubMed

Teddy Mselle, Lilian; Evjen-Olsen, Bjørg; Marie Moland, Karen; Mvungi, Abu; Wankuru Kohi, Thecla

2012-10-01

To explore women's expectations, worries, and hopes related to returning to their family and community after fistula repair. We used a concurrent mixed methods design with a hospital survey and qualitative interviews. One hundred fifty-one women completed a questionnaire, eight were interviewed in hospital after fistula repair, and one woman was followed up at home for six months during the reintegration phase. Women were concerned about where they could live and about not being accepted by their husbands and in-laws. While 51% feared that their husbands would not accept them despite full recovery, 53% said their parents would accept them. In the qualitative study women wished to live with their parents, whereas almost one half (49.7%) of the women in the quantitative study, who had lived with fistula for a shorter time, wished to live with their husbands. All women hoped to have children in the future, although many women, especially those with no children, were worried about whether they could bear children in the future. Despite fears related to economic survival and social acceptance, women were optimistic about regaining a normal social life. Women's expectations of going home after fistula repair are linked to their history of living with obstetric fistula. For women who have lived with a fistula for many years, reintegration involves re-establishing an identity that is clean and respected. To facilitate this transition, fistula repair needs to be accompanied by psychological and social rehabilitation and assistance in returning to reproductive capabilities.

Diabetes Treatment Breakthrough.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Shelly; And Others

1993-01-01

Eight experts in visual impairment respond briefly to reports that intensive monitoring of blood glucose levels by persons with diabetes can lead to a 70% reduction in the progression of detectable diabetic retinopathy. Comments are generally optimistic, though some cautions are raised. (DB)

Operators scrutinizing remote prospects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stremel, K.

1983-10-01

Although exploration funds are expecially tight now, activity in Idaho, Arizona, Nevada and the upper West Coast states is active. Wildcatters are optimistic that eventually commercial quantities of oil and gas will be produced in what appears to be only a vast wasteland.

Parallel simulation today

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David; Fujimoto, Richard

1992-01-01

This paper surveys topics that presently define the state of the art in parallel simulation. Included in the tutorial are discussions on new protocols, mathematical performance analysis, time parallelism, hardware support for parallel simulation, load balancing algorithms, and dynamic memory management for optimistic synchronization.

Themes in Current Soviet Curriculum Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Popkewitz, Thomas S.; Tabachnick, B. Robert

1982-01-01

Soviet educators are first of all "upbringers" whose prime task is the formation and maintenance of the socialist outlook. They base their teaching on dialectical materialism, assume there are law-like principles of teaching and learning, and are inexhaustibly optimistic. (Author)

Search for Majorana Neutrinos Near the Inverted Mass Hierarchy Region with KamLAND-Zen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Hachiya, T.; Hayashi, A.; Hayashida, S.; Ikeda, H.; Inoue, K.; Ishidoshiro, K.; Karino, Y.; Koga, M.; Matsuda, S.; Mitsui, T.; Nakamura, K.; Obara, S.; Oura, T.; Ozaki, H.; Shimizu, I.; Shirahata, Y.; Shirai, J.; Suzuki, A.; Takai, T.; Tamae, K.; Teraoka, Y.; Ueshima, K.; Watanabe, H.; Kozlov, A.; Takemoto, Y.; Yoshida, S.; Fushimi, K.; Banks, T. I.; Berger, B. E.; Fujikawa, B. K.; O'Donnell, T.; Winslow, L. A.; Efremenko, Y.; Karwowski, H. J.; Markoff, D. M.; Tornow, W.; Detwiler, J. A.; Enomoto, S.; Decowski, M. P.; KamLAND-Zen Collaboration

2016-08-01

We present an improved search for neutrinoless double-beta (0 ν β β ) decay of 136Xe in the KamLAND-Zen experiment. Owing to purification of the xenon-loaded liquid scintillator, we achieved a significant reduction of the Agm110 contaminant identified in previous searches. Combining the results from the first and second phase, we obtain a lower limit for the 0 ν β β decay half-life of T1/2 0 ν>1.07 ×1 026 yr at 90% C.L., an almost sixfold improvement over previous limits. Using commonly adopted nuclear matrix element calculations, the corresponding upper limits on the effective Majorana neutrino mass are in the range 61-165 meV. For the most optimistic nuclear matrix elements, this limit reaches the bottom of the quasidegenerate neutrino mass region.

Building Complex Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinchey, Mike

2006-01-01

The explosion of capabilities and new products within ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has fostered widespread, overly optimistic opinions regarding the industry, based on common but unjustified assumptions of quality and correctness of software. These assumptions are encouraged by software producers and vendors, who have not succeeded in finding a way to overcome the lack of an automated, mathematically sound way to develop correct systems from requirements. NASA faces this dilemma as it envisages advanced mission concepts in future exploration missions, which may well be the most ambitious computer-based systems ever developed. Such missions entail levels of complexity that beg for new methods for system development. NASA-led research in such areas as sensor networks, formal methods, autonomic computing, and requirements-based programming (to name but a few) will offer some innovative approaches to achieving correctness in complex system development.

Australia unlocks her uranium reserves. [Will develop deposits in Northern Territories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott, W.E.

1977-11-01

The economic implications of Australia's move to permit the development of uranium mining and to resume exporting uranium have led to forecasts that range from pessimism over unseen factors to an optimistic estimate of $A20 billion and 500,000 jobs. Direct benefits will go to those involved in road construction, mining equipment, and construction camps. The goverment plan calls for mining operations and yellowcake exports from four major uranium mines by 1985. An overview is given of the development plan, which emphasizes an orderly procedure rather than exploitation and excessive competition. The uranium industry is viewed as a stable long-term suppliermore » for international trade. Customers will be required to submit to international Atomic Energy Agency inspection and must guarantee to limit their uranium use to peaceful projects. (DCK)« less

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bröcker, Jochen

2014-06-01

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

Assessing the performance of dynamical trajectory estimates.

PubMed

Bröcker, Jochen

2014-06-01

Estimating trajectories and parameters of dynamical systems from observations is a problem frequently encountered in various branches of science; geophysicists for example refer to this problem as data assimilation. Unlike as in estimation problems with exchangeable observations, in data assimilation the observations cannot easily be divided into separate sets for estimation and validation; this creates serious problems, since simply using the same observations for estimation and validation might result in overly optimistic performance assessments. To circumvent this problem, a result is presented which allows us to estimate this optimism, thus allowing for a more realistic performance assessment in data assimilation. The presented approach becomes particularly simple for data assimilation methods employing a linear error feedback (such as synchronization schemes, nudging, incremental 3DVAR and 4DVar, and various Kalman filter approaches). Numerical examples considering a high gain observer confirm the theory.

The influence of optimism on functionality after total hip replacement surgery.

PubMed

Balck, Friedrich; Lippmann, Maike; Jeszenszky, Csilla; Günther, Klaus-Peter; Kirschner, Stephan

2016-08-01

Among other factors, optimism has been shown to significantly influence the course of some diseases (cancer, HIV, coronary heart disease). This study investigated whether optimism of a patient before a total hip replacement can predict the functionality of the lower limbs 3 and 6 months after surgery. A total of 325 patients took part in the study (age: 58.7 years; w: 55%). The functionality was measured with the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities arthrosis index, and optimism with the Life Orientation Test. To analyse the influences of age, gender and optimism, general linear models were calculated. In optimistic patients, functionality improved significantly over time. The study showed a clear influence of dispositional optimism on the recovery after total hip replacement in the first 3 months after surgery. © The Author(s) 2015.

Lessons from Skateboarders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sagor, Richard

2002-01-01

Describes what motivates skateboarders to master their sport. Elements include the need to feel competent, to belong, to feel useful, to feel potent, and to feel optimistic. Argues that that teachers can use same motivation elements to improve the learning performance of alienated students. (PKP)

Teaching Reading in Paradise: A Fijian Principal Coping with Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzsimmons, Phil

2002-01-01

Discusses the state of elementary education in Fiji. Provides one Fijian principal's optimistic approach to implementing a whole language approach to the teaching of reading. Notes the teachers' original opposition to change, and the difficulty of maintaining change. (PM)

Experts Optimistic About Future of World Ecology, Economy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lepkowski, Wil

1984-01-01

Highlights an international conference which examined issues and actions related to environmental problems. Includes recommendations focusing on: population, poverty, environment; urban environment; fresh waters; biological diversity; tropical forests; land resources; energy; nonfuel minerals; and on air, atmosphere, and climate. (JN)

Faith of Our Fathers. Grand Masters Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gary, Charles

2001-01-01

Focuses on the role music teachers should have in promoting the importance of music education in schools. Explores viewpoints from influential people in the field. Believes that music educators should be missionaries when promoting music education and be optimistic daily. (CMK)

Psychological response to growth hormone treatment in short normal children.

PubMed Central

Downie, A B; Mulligan, J; McCaughey, E S; Stratford, R J; Betts, P R; Voss, L D

1996-01-01

This study provides a controlled assessment of the psychological (and physical) effects of growth hormone treatment. Fifteen short 'normal' children (height SD score < -2) have been treated with growth hormone since the age of 7/8 years. They, together with untreated short controls and average controls (10th-90th centiles), were assessed at recruitment, after three years, and after five years. Only the treated group showed a significant height increase (SD score -2.44 to -1.21 over five years). No significant differences were found at recruitment, three years, or five years in IQ, attainment, behaviour, or self esteem. Also at five years, there were no significant differences in locus of control, self perception, or parental perceptions of competence. Both short groups displayed less satisfaction with their height than the controls (p < 0.01), though all groups were optimistic of being tall adults. The treated children were no more unrealistic over final height than the untreated children. To date, no psychological benefits of treatment have been demonstrated; but nor have there been any discernible ill effects for either the treated or the untreated children. PMID:8813867

A conspiracy of optimism: Sustained yield, multiple use, and intensive management on the national forests, 1945-1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hirt, P.W.

1991-01-01

This study focuses on two core national forest management policies; sustained yield and multiple use. Public and elected officials attempt to apply principles of sustainable development to publicly-owned forest lands to ensure that a wide variety of both market and nonmarket forest values are preserved for the benefit of present and future generations. Interest groups, the Forest Service, and policy makers have conceived of sustained yield and multiple use in different and evolving ways over the years. This study explores how these principles have been variously defined and either implemented or thwarted. After World War Two, with escalating demands onmore » national forest resources, the US Forest Service turned to intensive management as a technological method of enhancing natural forest productivity and mitigating the environmental effects of increased use. But the agency's optimistic vision of efficient, sustained production of forest commodities through technical mastery over nature has met overwhelming fiscal, environmental, technical, and political obstacles. Changing public values since the 1960s and popularization of ecology have initiated a growing skepticism toward the premises of intensive management.« less

Adolescents' Civic and Organizational Activity: An Experimental Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dashkevich, O. V.; Slavgorodskaia, E. L.

1995-01-01

Reports on the attitudes of 175 Russian adolescents and their teachers toward civic and community service activities. Argues that economic and social crises have created negative attitudes towards community service. Finds that students who are involved in community activities are more optimistic. (CFR)

Aristotle, Autonomy, and Design

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-30

tradition, mature, autonomous citizens are simply taken as given. The problem here is of course that real people are not like this. We were children once...an optimist myself and believe that creative thinking, sound government policy, and motivated entrepreneurship could make more progress toward the

Can Computers Create?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hausman, Carl R.

1985-01-01

To be creative, an act must have as its outcome something new in the way it is intelligible and valuable. Computers have restricted contexts of information and have no ability to weigh bits of information. Computer optimists presuppose either determinism or indeterminism, either of which abandons creativity. (MT)

Air pollution-related health and climate benefits of clean cookstove programs in Mozambique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anenberg, Susan C.; Henze, Daven K.; Lacey, Forrest; Irfan, Ans; Kinney, Patrick; Kleiman, Gary; Pillarisetti, Ajay

2017-02-01

Approximately 95% of households in Mozambique burn solid fuels for cooking, contributing to elevated indoor and outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and subsequent health and climate impacts. Little is known about the potential health and climate benefits of various approaches for expanding the use of cleaner stoves and fuels in Mozambique. We use state-of-the-science methods to provide a first-order estimation of potential air pollution-related health and climate benefits of four illustrative scenarios in which traditional cooking fires and stoves are displaced by cleaner and more efficient technologies. For rural areas, we find that a 10% increase in the number of households using forced draft wood-burning stoves could achieve >2.5 times more health benefits from reduced PM2.5 exposure (200 avoided premature deaths and 14 000 avoided disability adjusted life years, DALYs, over a three-year project lifetime) compared to natural draft stoves in the same households, assuming 70% of households use the new technology for both cases. Expanding use of LPG stoves to 10% of households in five major cities is estimated to avoid 160 premature deaths and 11 000 DALYs from reduced PM2.5 exposure for a three-year intervention, assuming 60% of households use the new stove. Advanced charcoal stoves would achieve ∽80% of the PM2.5-related health benefits of LPG stoves. Approximately 2%-5% additional health benefits would result from reduced ambient PM2.5, depending on the scenario. Although climate impacts are uncertain, we estimate that all scenarios would reduce expected climate change-related temperature increases from continued solid fuel use by 4%-6% over the next century. All results are based on an assumed adjustment factor of 0.8 to convert from laboratory-based emission reduction measurements to exposure reductions, which could be optimistic in reality given potential for continued use of the traditional stove. We conclude that cleaner cooking stoves in Mozambique can achieve health and climate benefits, though both are uncertain and local information about baseline and intervention PM2.5 exposure levels are needed.

Euclid: Superluminous supernovae in the Deep Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inserra, C.; Nichol, R. C.; Scovacricchi, D.; Amiaux, J.; Brescia, M.; Burigana, C.; Cappellaro, E.; Carvalho, C. S.; Cavuoti, S.; Conforti, V.; Cuillandre, J.-C.; da Silva, A.; De Rosa, A.; Della Valle, M.; Dinis, J.; Franceschi, E.; Hook, I.; Hudelot, P.; Jahnke, K.; Kitching, T.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lloro, I.; Longo, G.; Maiorano, E.; Maris, M.; Rhodes, J. D.; Scaramella, R.; Smartt, S. J.; Sullivan, M.; Tao, C.; Toledo-Moreo, R.; Tereno, I.; Trifoglio, M.; Valenziano, L.

2018-01-01

Context. In the last decade, astronomers have found a new type of supernova called superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) due to their high peak luminosity and long light-curves. These hydrogen-free explosions (SLSNe-I) can be seen to z 4 and therefore, offer the possibility of probing the distant Universe. Aims: We aim to investigate the possibility of detecting SLSNe-I using ESA's Euclid satellite, scheduled for launch in 2020. In particular, we study the Euclid Deep Survey (EDS) which will provide a unique combination of area, depth and cadence over the mission. Methods: We estimated the redshift distribution of Euclid SLSNe-I using the latest information on their rates and spectral energy distribution, as well as known Euclid instrument and survey parameters, including the cadence and depth of the EDS. To estimate the uncertainties, we calculated their distribution with two different set-ups, namely optimistic and pessimistic, adopting different star formation densities and rates. We also applied a standardization method to the peak magnitudes to create a simulated Hubble diagram to explore possible cosmological constraints. Results: We show that Euclid should detect approximately 140 high-quality SLSNe-I to z 3.5 over the first five years of the mission (with an additional 70 if we lower our photometric classification criteria). This sample could revolutionize the study of SLSNe-I at z > 1 and open up their use as probes of star-formation rates, galaxy populations, the interstellar and intergalactic medium. In addition, a sample of such SLSNe-I could improve constraints on a time-dependent dark energy equation-of-state, namely w(a), when combined with local SLSNe-I and the expected SN Ia sample from the Dark Energy Survey. Conclusions: We show that Euclid will observe hundreds of SLSNe-I for free. These luminous transients will be in the Euclid data-stream and we should prepare now to identify them as they offer a new probe of the high-redshift Universe for both astrophysics and cosmology. This paper is published on behalf of the Euclid Consortium.

How physicians describe outcomes to HCV therapy: prevalence and meaning of "cure" during provider-patient in-office discussions of HCV.

PubMed

Hamilton, Heidi E; Gordon, Cynthia; Nelson, Meaghan; Cotler, Scott J; Martin, Paul

2008-04-01

How physicians convey information about hepatitis C virus (HCV) impacts patients' perceptions of treatment outcomes and informed therapy decisions. However, HCV patients reported difficulties communicating with their physicians in a recent study. Another study showed that 45% of patients did not understand projected response rates conveyed by providers, and patients with unfavorable projected treatment outcomes were more likely to lack understanding. This article analyzes naturally occurring patient-provider interactions to evaluate physicians' use of the word 'cure', and framing of HCV response as optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral, to suggest possible reasons why patients with unfavorable projected sustained virologic response rates might perceive their odds as more favorable than they are. Gastroenterologists, allied health professionals, and HCV patients were video and audio-recorded during regular scheduled visits. Recordings were transcribed and analyzed using validated sociolinguistic techniques. Sixty-three percent of physicians used the word 'cure' in 38% of visits involving response discussions. 'Cure' most frequently meant 'absolute cure' and occurred more commonly in visits conducted before therapy initiation, and with patients having favorable genotypes. Physicians hedged the meaning of 'cure' in 29% of visits. Moreover, 69.5% of response-related utterances were framed optimistically. HCV dialogs are characterized by the prevalence of 'cure' and optimistic framing. These positive language attributes could potentially contribute to the misunderstanding regarding the projected response rates. During treatment outcome discussions, the physicians should attempt to (1) operate using the same definition of the therapy outcome as the patient, (2) balance medically accurate information with patient comprehension, and (3) consider possible consequences of discussing treatment options on the basis of message framing.

Revolutionary Road

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adults Learning, 2009

2009-01-01

Last month, the Government published "The Learning Revolution," its long-awaited White Paper on informal adult learning. This article asks some of the key players and commentators whether they thought the paper lived up to its optimistic title. It presents the views of these commentators about the "Learning Revolution" White…

Dispositional optimism, self-framing and medical decision-making.

PubMed

Zhao, Xu; Huang, Chunlei; Li, Xuesong; Zhao, Xin; Peng, Jiaxi

2015-03-01

Self-framing is an important but underinvestigated area in risk communication and behavioural decision-making, especially in medical settings. The present study aimed to investigate the relationship among dispositional optimism, self-frame and decision-making. Participants (N = 500) responded to the Life Orientation Test-Revised and self-framing test of medical decision-making problem. The participants whose scores were higher than the middle value were regarded as highly optimistic individuals. The rest were regarded as low optimistic individuals. The results showed that compared to the high dispositional optimism group, participants from the low dispositional optimism group showed a greater tendency to use negative vocabulary to construct their self-frame, and tended to choose the radiation therapy with high treatment survival rate, but low 5-year survival rate. Based on the current findings, it can be concluded that self-framing effect still exists in medical situation and individual differences in dispositional optimism can influence the processing of information in a framed decision task, as well as risky decision-making. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

Limiting global warming to 2°C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.; Golly, A.; Mengel, M.; Lebek, K.; Donner, S. D.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.

2013-02-01

Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5°C (atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3-1.8°C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals' thermal adaptation, one-third (9-60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world's coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30-88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

[Accepting pessimistic thinking is associated with better mental and physical health in defensive pessimists].

PubMed

Hosogoshi, Hiroki; Kodama, Masahiro

2009-02-01

The mental and physical health of defensive pessimists (DPs) is generally worse than that of optimists. However, some DPs who accept their pessimistic thinking style are in good health. This study examined the health of college students who were DPs related to how they accepted their thinking style. In Study 1 (F = 211, M = 131), self-esteem was compared among DPs, strategic optimists (SOs), and depressed persons (DEPs). In Study 2 (F = 376, M = 251, not indicated = 5), the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ28) was compared among these groups. ANOVAs revealed that DPs were healthier than DEPs in self-esteem and on the GHQ28, but worse than SOs in self-esteem. However, ANCOVA examining self-esteem with acceptance of their thinking style as a covariate showed that DPs were better than DEPs and as good as SOs in health. Regarding the acceptance of their thinking style, DPs scored worse than SOs. This study concluded that DPs in better health had better acceptance of their pessimistic thinking style.

Estimated risks and optimistic self-perception of breast cancer risk in Korean women.

PubMed

Chung, ChaeWeon; Lee, Suk Jeong

2013-11-01

To determine women's perceived personal and comparative risks of breast cancer, and to examine the relationships with risk factors. Despite the increasing incidence of breast cancer in younger women and the availability of screening, women's health behaviors have not advanced accordingly. A cross-sectional survey design utilized a convenience sample of 222 women in their 30s and 40s recruited from community settings in Seoul. Self-administered questionnaire data were analyzed by descriptive statistics, the chi-squared test, and ANOVA. Risk perception levels differed significantly by breast cancer risk factors. Half of the women were optimistic about their breast cancer risk, while perceived personal risk did not reflect women's own risk factors and comparative risk differed only by the practice of clinical breast exam. Women's knowledge and awareness of their breast cancer risk factors need to be improved for appropriate risk perception and health behaviors, and accurate risk estimation could be utilized to educate them in clinical settings. © 2013.

Improved VAS regression soundings of mesoscale temperature features observed during the atmospheric variability experiment on 6 March 1982. [VISSR Atmospheric Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chesters, Dennis; Keyser, Dennis A.; Larko, David E.; Uccellini, Louis W.

1988-01-01

In 1982, the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) on the GOES satellite performed the Atmospheric Variability Experiment (AVE) to verify VAS's mesoscale-sounding capabilities. Attention is given to the AVE network in the late afternoon of March 6, 1982, after a winter storm had passed over Texas, in order to ascertain whether such temperature profile deviations from the average lapse rate as a midlevel cold pool (which should decrease the brightness of several IR channels) can be retrieved from VAS radiances. Two simple enhancements are introduced: the regression matrix is calculated using the AVE asynoptic radiosondes launched from NWS sites in the region, and a change of the statistical conditioning factor from the conservative 10/1 SNR to a more optimistic 100/1 for those VAS channels that are more sensitive to tropospheric temperature.

Assessing the microbial quality of improved drinking water sources: results from the Dominican Republic.

PubMed

Baum, Rachel; Kayser, Georgia; Stauber, Christine; Sobsey, Mark

2014-01-01

Millennium Development Goal Target 7c (to halve between 1990 and 2015 the proportion of the global population without sustainable access to safe drinking water), was celebrated as achieved in 2012. However, new studies show that we may be prematurely celebrating. Access to safe drinking water may be overestimated if microbial water quality is considered. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between microbial drinking water quality and drinking water source in the Puerto Plata region of the Dominican Republic. This study analyzed microbial drinking water quality data from 409 households in 33 communities. Results showed that 47% of improved drinking water sources were of high to very-high risk water quality, and therefore unsafe for drinking. This study provides evidence that the current estimate of safe water access may be overly optimistic, and microbial water quality data are needed to reliably assess the safety of drinking water.

Search for Majorana Neutrinos Near the Inverted Mass Hierarchy Region with KamLAND-Zen.

PubMed

Gando, A; Gando, Y; Hachiya, T; Hayashi, A; Hayashida, S; Ikeda, H; Inoue, K; Ishidoshiro, K; Karino, Y; Koga, M; Matsuda, S; Mitsui, T; Nakamura, K; Obara, S; Oura, T; Ozaki, H; Shimizu, I; Shirahata, Y; Shirai, J; Suzuki, A; Takai, T; Tamae, K; Teraoka, Y; Ueshima, K; Watanabe, H; Kozlov, A; Takemoto, Y; Yoshida, S; Fushimi, K; Banks, T I; Berger, B E; Fujikawa, B K; O'Donnell, T; Winslow, L A; Efremenko, Y; Karwowski, H J; Markoff, D M; Tornow, W; Detwiler, J A; Enomoto, S; Decowski, M P

2016-08-19

We present an improved search for neutrinoless double-beta (0νββ) decay of ^{136}Xe in the KamLAND-Zen experiment. Owing to purification of the xenon-loaded liquid scintillator, we achieved a significant reduction of the ^{110m}Ag contaminant identified in previous searches. Combining the results from the first and second phase, we obtain a lower limit for the 0νββ decay half-life of T_{1/2}^{0ν}>1.07×10^{26}  yr at 90% C.L., an almost sixfold improvement over previous limits. Using commonly adopted nuclear matrix element calculations, the corresponding upper limits on the effective Majorana neutrino mass are in the range 61-165 meV. For the most optimistic nuclear matrix elements, this limit reaches the bottom of the quasidegenerate neutrino mass region.

Take a Closer Look:Biofuels Can Support Environmental, Economic and Social Goals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Bruce E.; Anderson, James; Brown, Dr. Robert C.

The US Congress passed the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) seven years ago. Since then, biofuels have gone from darling to scapegoat for many environmentalists, policy makers, and the general public. The reasons for this shift are complex and include concerns about environmental degradation, uncertainties about impact on food security, new access to fossil fuels, and overly optimistic timetables. As a result, many people have written off biofuels. However, numerous studies indicate that biofuels, if managed sustainably, can help solve pressing environmental, social and economic problems (Figure 1). The scientific and policy communities should take a closer look by reviewing themore » key assumptions underlying opposition to biofuels and carefully consider the probable alternatives. Liquid fuels based on fossil raw materials are likely to come at increasing environmental cost. Sustainable futures require energy conservation, increased efficiency, and alternatives to fossil fuels, including biofuels.« less

Reassessing direct-to-consumer portrayals of unproven stem cell therapies: is it getting better?

PubMed

Ogbogu, Ubaka; Rachul, Christen; Caulfield, Timothy

2013-05-01

To determine whether increased scrutiny of 'stem cell tourism' has resulted in changes to online claims by clinics that provide putative unproven stem cell treatments. We analyzed historical and current versions of clinics' websites. The study sample consisted of 18 websites included in a 2008 peer-reviewed study and an additional 12 clinics identified through the Google™ search engine. Our analysis revealed similarities between historical and current stem cell treatment offerings, claims, representations of risk, benefit and efficacy and attention to social, ethical and regulatory concerns. Claims and representations remain overly optimistic. Current websites provide more detailed descriptions of treatment procedures and outcomes and are more aesthetically appealing. Noteworthy trends in the movements and locations of clinics was observed. Increased scrutiny of stem cell tourism has not had much impact on the online claims of clinics that provide putative unproven stem cell treatments.

The Overestimation Phenomenon in a Skill-Based Gaming Context: The Case of March Madness Pools.

PubMed

Kwak, Dae Hee

2016-03-01

Over 100 million people are estimated to take part in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship bracket contests. However, relatively little is known about consumer behavior in skill-based gaming situations (e.g., sports betting). In two studies, we investigated the overestimation phenomenon in the "March Madness" context. In Study 1 (N = 81), we found that individuals who were allowed to make their own predictions were significantly more optimistic about their performance than individuals who did not make their own selections. In Study 2 (N = 197), all subjects participated in a mock competitive bracket pool. In line with the illusion of control theory, results showed that higher self-ratings of probability of winning significantly increased maximum willingness to wager but did not improve actual performance. Lastly, perceptions of high probability of winning significantly contributed to consumers' enjoyment and willingness to participate in a bracket pool in the future.

On ɛ-mechanism driven pulsations in VV 47

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sowicka, Paulina; Handler, Gerald; Jones, David

2018-06-01

We report new observations of the central star of the planetary nebula VV 47 carried out to verify earlier assertions that the short-period pulsation modes detected in the star are driven by the ɛ mechanism. In our data, VV 47 was not variable up to a limit of 0.52 mmag in the Fourier amplitude spectrum up to the Nyquist frequency of 21.7 mHz. Given this null result we re-analyzed the data set in which oscillations were claimed. After careful data reduction, photometry, extinction correction, and analysis with a conservative criterion of S/N ≥ 4 in the Fourier amplitude spectrum, we found that the star was not variable during the original observations. The oscillations reported earlier were due to an over-optimistic detection criterion. We conclude that VV 47 did not pulsate during any measurements at hand; the observational detection of ɛ-driven pulsations remains arduous.

On the validity of time-dependent AUC estimators.

PubMed

Schmid, Matthias; Kestler, Hans A; Potapov, Sergej

2015-01-01

Recent developments in molecular biology have led to the massive discovery of new marker candidates for the prediction of patient survival. To evaluate the predictive value of these markers, statistical tools for measuring the performance of survival models are needed. We consider estimators of discrimination measures, which are a popular approach to evaluate survival predictions in biomarker studies. Estimators of discrimination measures are usually based on regularity assumptions such as the proportional hazards assumption. Based on two sets of molecular data and a simulation study, we show that violations of the regularity assumptions may lead to over-optimistic estimates of prediction accuracy and may therefore result in biased conclusions regarding the clinical utility of new biomarkers. In particular, we demonstrate that biased medical decision making is possible even if statistical checks indicate that all regularity assumptions are satisfied. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparing nanoparticle risk perceptions to other known EHS risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berube, David M.; Cummings, Christopher L.; Frith, Jordan H.; Binder, Andrew R.; Oldendick, Robert

2011-08-01

Over the last decade social scientific researchers have examined how the public perceives risks associated with nanotechnology. The body of literature that has emerged has been methodologically diverse. The findings have confirmed that some publics perceive nanotechnology as riskier than others, experts feel nanotechnology is less risky than the public does, and despite risks the public is optimistic about nanotechnology development. However, the extant literature on nanotechnology and risk suffers from sometimes widely divergent findings and has failed to provide a detailed picture of how the public actually feels about nanotechnology risks when compared to other risks. This study addresses the deficiencies in the literature by providing a comparative approach to gauging nanotechnology risks. The findings show that the public does not fear nanotechnology compared to other risks. Out of 24 risks presented to the participants, nanotechnology ranked 19th in terms of overall risk and 20th in terms of "high risk."

Landowner behavior can determine the success of conservation strategies for ecosystem migration under sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Dayer, Ashley A; Elphick, Chris S

2017-08-22

The human aspects of conservation are often overlooked but will be critical for identifying strategies for biological conservation in the face of climate change. We surveyed the behavioral intentions of coastal landowners with respect to various conservation strategies aimed at facilitating ecosystem migration for tidal marshes. We found that several popular strategies, including conservation easements and increasing awareness of ecosystem services, may not interest enough landowners to allow marsh migration at the spatial scales needed to mitigate losses from sea-level rise. We identified less common conservation strategies that have more support but that are unproven in practice and may be more expensive. Our results show that failure to incorporate human dimensions into ecosystem modeling and conservation planning could lead to the use of ineffective strategies and an overly optimistic view of the potential for ecosystem migration into human dominated areas.

Landowner behavior can determine the success of conservation strategies for ecosystem migration under sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Field, Christopher R.; Dayer, Ashley A.; Elphick, Chris S.

2017-01-01

The human aspects of conservation are often overlooked but will be critical for identifying strategies for biological conservation in the face of climate change. We surveyed the behavioral intentions of coastal landowners with respect to various conservation strategies aimed at facilitating ecosystem migration for tidal marshes. We found that several popular strategies, including conservation easements and increasing awareness of ecosystem services, may not interest enough landowners to allow marsh migration at the spatial scales needed to mitigate losses from sea-level rise. We identified less common conservation strategies that have more support but that are unproven in practice and may be more expensive. Our results show that failure to incorporate human dimensions into ecosystem modeling and conservation planning could lead to the use of ineffective strategies and an overly optimistic view of the potential for ecosystem migration into human dominated areas. PMID:28790190

Meta-Modeling-Based Groundwater Remediation Optimization under Flexibility in Environmental Standard.

PubMed

He, Li; Xu, Zongda; Fan, Xing; Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei

2017-05-01

  This study develops a meta-modeling based mathematical programming approach with flexibility in environmental standards. It integrates numerical simulation, meta-modeling analysis, and fuzzy programming within a general framework. A set of models between remediation strategies and remediation performance can well guarantee the mitigation in computational efforts in the simulation and optimization process. In order to prevent the occurrence of over-optimistic and pessimistic optimization strategies, a high satisfaction level resulting from the implementation of a flexible standard can indicate the degree to which the environmental standard is satisfied. The proposed approach is applied to a naphthalene-contaminated site in China. Results show that a longer remediation period corresponds to a lower total pumping rate and a stringent risk standard implies a high total pumping rate. The wells located near or in the down-gradient direction to the contaminant sources have the most significant efficiency among all of remediation schemes.

Extra-solar planetary systems. III - Potential sites for the origin and evolution of technical civilisations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogg, M. J.

1986-07-01

A series of runs of the Silicon Creation' computer model developed by Fogg (1985) has been analyzed in order to evaluate the probable abundance of planets possessing suitable conditions for the evolution of technologically adept forms of life. The evolutionary simulation encompassed 100,000 disk stars of varying mass, metallicity, and age, and focused on civilizations that may have come into existence on planets over the past 10 to the 10th years of planetary disk history. The frequency of such sites is determined to be 0.00292, and the frequency of planets developing a technological civilization is 0.00009; these figures are two orders of magnitude lower than the most optimistic manipulations of the Drake equation, but not low enough to resolve the Fermi paradox, according to which an alien civilization, if existent, should long ago have colonized the entire Galaxy.

The Rise and Fall of Pentaquarks in Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumacher, Reinhard A.

2006-07-01

Experimental evidence for and against the existence of pentaquarks has accumulated rapidly in the last three years. If they exist, they would be dramatic examples of hadronic states beyond our well-tested and successful particle models. The positive evidence suggests existence of baryonic objects with widths of at most a few MeV, some displaying exotic quantum numbers, such as baryons with strangeness S = +1. The non-observations of these states have often come from reaction channels very different from the positive evidence channels, making comparisons difficult. The situation has now been largely clarified, however, by high-statistics repetitions of the positive sightings, with the result that none of the positive sightings have been convincingly reproduced. The most recent unconfirmed positive sightings suffer again from low statistics and large backgrounds. It seems that a kind of "bandwagon" effect led to the overly-optimistic interpretation of numerous experiments in the earlier reports of exotic pentaquarks.

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

1997-01-01

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering. U.S. copyright. Published in 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

The Future of U.S. Science - To Follow or To Lead?

ScienceCinema

Lane, Neal

2018-05-24

The message of the talk is simple. Since the end of WWII and Vannevar Bush's legendary report 'Science, The Endless Frontier,' the U.S. has enjoyed an extraordinary period of leadership in science and success in delivering its many benefits to the American people, indeed humanity throughout the world. But things change over a span of fifty years. The critical role of science, in particular, the federal investment in basic research, has gotten lost in a vast array of other societal concerns. Perhaps we are at a 'tipping point' with regard to U.S. science. If so, the stakes are high; and it is our responsibility to help the American people and their elected representatives get the message. I will describe some concerns I have about the future, comment on several recent reports, which I think are relevant, and attempt to offer some reasons to be optimistic.

Assessing the Microbial Quality of Improved Drinking Water Sources: Results from the Dominican Republic

PubMed Central

Baum, Rachel; Kayser, Georgia; Stauber, Christine; Sobsey, Mark

2014-01-01

Millennium Development Goal Target 7c (to halve between 1990 and 2015 the proportion of the global population without sustainable access to safe drinking water), was celebrated as achieved in 2012. However, new studies show that we may be prematurely celebrating. Access to safe drinking water may be overestimated if microbial water quality is considered. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between microbial drinking water quality and drinking water source in the Puerto Plata region of the Dominican Republic. This study analyzed microbial drinking water quality data from 409 households in 33 communities. Results showed that 47% of improved drinking water sources were of high to very-high risk water quality, and therefore unsafe for drinking. This study provides evidence that the current estimate of safe water access may be overly optimistic, and microbial water quality data are needed to reliably assess the safety of drinking water. PMID:24218411

Career intentions of nursing students and new nurse graduates: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Hayes, Laureen J; Orchard, Carole A; McGillis Hall, Linda; Nincic, Vera; O'Brien-Pallas, Linda; Andrews, Gavin

2006-01-01

This paper highlights findings from a literature search to examine the role of nursing education in preparing nurses to meet healthcare demands. The review focused on nursing students' perceptions of nursing and whether these views change during their nursing studies and impact workplace preferences. Nursing students often enter their program with preconceived ideas of where they want to work following graduation. Large urban hospitals were favored over community care because of the perceived opportunities for support. Of particular importance were the negative views relating to care of elderly patients. Unless attitudes are changed during their nursing studies, they may affect initial job selection. Implications for nursing education include provision of educational experiences that foster an optimistic career outlook in areas where there is a growing need for nursing services. More research is needed to determine how to enable appropriate learning experiences when there are limited resources and practice placements.

Enthalpy of Formation of N 2 H 4 (Hydrazine) Revisited

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Feller, David; Bross, David H.; Ruscic, Branko

2017-08-02

In order to address the accuracy of the long-standing experimental enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, fully confirmed in earlier versions of Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT), the provenance of that value is re-examined in light of new high-end calculations of the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) variety. An overly optimistic determination of the vaporization enthalpy of hydrazine, which created an unrealistically strong connection between the gas phase thermochemistry and the calorimetric results defining the thermochemistry of liquid hydrazine was identified as the probable culprit. The new enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, based on balancing all available knowledge, was determined to be 111.57more » ± 0.47 kJ/mol at 0 K (97.41 kJ/mol at 298.15 K). Close agreement was found between the ATcT (even excluding the latest theoretical result) and FPD enthalpies.« less

Search for Majorana Neutrinos Near the Inverted Mass Hierarchy Region with KamLAND-Zen

DOE PAGES

Gando, A.; Gando, Y.; Hachiya, T.; ...

2016-08-16

Here, we present an improved search for neutrinoless double-beta (0νββ) decay of Xe 136 in the KamLAND-Zen experiment. Owing to purification of the xenon-loaded liquid scintillator, we achieved a significant reduction of the Ag 110m contaminant identified in previous searches. Combining the results from the first and second phase, we obtain a lower limit for the 0νββ decay half-life of Tmore » $$0v\\atop{1/2}$$ > 1.07×10 26 yr at 90% C.L., an almost sixfold improvement over previous limits. Using commonly adopted nuclear matrix element calculations, the corresponding upper limits on the effective Majorana neutrino mass are in the range 61-165 meV. Finally, for the most optimistic nuclear matrix elements, this limit reaches the bottom of the quasidegenerate neutrino mass region.« less

Enthalpy of Formation of N2H4 (Hydrazine) Revisited.

PubMed

Feller, David; Bross, David H; Ruscic, Branko

2017-08-17

In order to address the accuracy of the long-standing experimental enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, fully confirmed in earlier versions of Active Thermochemical Tables (ATcT), the provenance of that value is re-examined in light of new high-end calculations of the Feller-Peterson-Dixon (FPD) variety. An overly optimistic determination of the vaporization enthalpy of hydrazine, which created an unrealistically strong connection between the gas phase thermochemistry and the calorimetric results defining the thermochemistry of liquid hydrazine, was identified as the probable culprit. The new enthalpy of formation of gas-phase hydrazine, based on balancing all available knowledge, was determined to be 111.57 ± 0.47 kJ/mol at 0 K (97.42 ± 0.47 kJ/mol at 298.15 K). Close agreement was found between the ATcT (even excluding the latest theoretical result) and the FPD enthalpy.

Inflated speedups in parallel simulations via malloc()

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, David M.

1990-01-01

Discrete-event simulation programs make heavy use of dynamic memory allocation in order to support simulation's very dynamic space requirements. When programming in C one is likely to use the malloc() routine. However, a parallel simulation which uses the standard Unix System V malloc() implementation may achieve an overly optimistic speedup, possibly superlinear. An alternate implementation provided on some (but not all systems) can avoid the speedup anomaly, but at the price of significantly reduced available free space. This is especially severe on most parallel architectures, which tend not to support virtual memory. It is shown how a simply implemented user-constructed interface to malloc() can both avoid artificially inflated speedups, and make efficient use of the dynamic memory space. The interface simply catches blocks on the basis of their size. The problem is demonstrated empirically, and the effectiveness of the solution is shown both empirically and analytically.

Evaluating the impact of climate policies on regional food availability and accessibility using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Cui, Y. R.; Waldhoff, S.

2015-12-01

Beyond 2015, eradicating hunger will remain a critical part of the global development agenda through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Efforts to limit climate change through both mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and land use policies may interact with food availability and accessibility in complex and unanticipated ways. Here, we develop projections of regional food accessibility to 2050 under the alternative futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and under different climate policy targets and structures. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), for our projections. We calculate food access as the weighted average of consumption of five staples and the portion of income spend on those commodities and extend the GCAM calculated universal global producer price to regional consumer prices drawing on historical relationships of these prices. Along the SSPs, food access depends largely on expectations of increases in population and economic status. Under a more optimistic scenario, the pressures on food access from increasing demand and rising prices can be counterbalanced by faster economic development. Stringent climate policies that increase commodity prices, however, may hinder vulnerable regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa, from achieving greater food accessibility.

Optimism is universal: exploring the presence and benefits of optimism in a representative sample of the world.

PubMed

Gallagher, Matthew W; Lopez, Shane J; Pressman, Sarah D

2013-10-01

Current theories of optimism suggest that the tendency to maintain positive expectations for the future is an adaptive psychological resource associated with improved well-being and physical health, but the majority of previous optimism research has been conducted in industrialized nations. The present study examined (a) whether optimism is universal, (b) what demographic factors predict optimism, and (c) whether optimism is consistently associated with improved subjective well-being and perceived health worldwide. The present study used representative samples of 142 countries that together represent 95% of the world's population. The total sample of 150,048 individuals had a mean age of 38.28 (SD = 16.85) and approximately equal sex distribution (51.2% female). The relationships between optimism, subjective well-being, and perceived health were examined using hierarchical linear modeling. Results indicated that most individuals and most countries worldwide are optimistic and that higher levels of optimism are associated with improved subjective well-being and perceived health worldwide. The present study provides compelling evidence that optimism is a universal phenomenon and that the associations between optimism and improved psychological functioning are not limited to industrialized nations. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness.

PubMed

Becker, Julia S; Paton, Douglas; Johnston, David M; Ronan, Kevin R

2013-09-01

Prior research has found little or no direct link between beliefs about earthquake risk and household preparedness. Furthermore, only limited work has been conducted on how people's beliefs influence the nature and number of preparedness measures adopted. To address this gap, 48 qualitative interviews were undertaken with residents in three urban locations in New Zealand subject to seismic risk. The study aimed to identify the diverse hazard and preparedness-related beliefs people hold and to articulate how these are influenced by public education to encourage preparedness. The study also explored how beliefs and competencies at personal, social, and environmental levels interact to influence people's risk management choices. Three main categories of beliefs were found: hazard beliefs; preparedness beliefs; and personal beliefs. Several salient beliefs found previously to influence the preparedness process were confirmed by this study, including beliefs related to earthquakes being an inevitable and imminent threat, self-efficacy, outcome expectancy, personal responsibility, responsibility for others, and beliefs related to denial, fatalism, normalization bias, and optimistic bias. New salient beliefs were also identified (e.g., preparedness being a "way of life"), as well as insight into how some of these beliefs interact within the wider informational and societal context. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Computer model to simulate testing at the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mineck, Raymond E.; Owens, Lewis R., Jr.; Wahls, Richard A.; Hannon, Judith A.

1995-01-01

A computer model has been developed to simulate the processes involved in the operation of the National Transonic Facility (NTF), a large cryogenic wind tunnel at the Langley Research Center. The simulation was verified by comparing the simulated results with previously acquired data from three experimental wind tunnel test programs in the NTF. The comparisons suggest that the computer model simulates reasonably well the processes that determine the liquid nitrogen (LN2) consumption, electrical consumption, fan-on time, and the test time required to complete a test plan at the NTF. From these limited comparisons, it appears that the results from the simulation model are generally within about 10 percent of the actual NTF test results. The use of actual data acquisition times in the simulation produced better estimates of the LN2 usage, as expected. Additional comparisons are needed to refine the model constants. The model will typically produce optimistic results since the times and rates included in the model are typically the optimum values. Any deviation from the optimum values will lead to longer times or increased LN2 and electrical consumption for the proposed test plan. Computer code operating instructions and listings of sample input and output files have been included.

Biologic resurfacing of the patella: current status.

PubMed

Scapinelli, Raphaele; Aglietti, Paolo; Baldovin, Marino; Giron, Francesco; Teitge, Robert

2002-07-01

The techniques of biologic resurfacing of the patella, like other joint surfaces, are still evolving. Currently none of them is free from criticism. In this regard it is our hope that progress in the basic science will offer in the near future new and more optimistic therapeutic possibilities (i.e., the restoration of a reparative cartilage that is structurally and functionally comparable to the native one). The greater expectancies come perhaps from the present experimental investigations about the combined use of tissue-engineered implants embedded with staminal cells and growth factors. Many problems remain to be solved, however, before reliable applicability in humans. From a general point of view, stem cells obtained from various sources (e.g., adult bone marrow, umbilical cord) offer the same finalities as the embryonic stem cells, without the ethical obstacles related to the latter. Therefore, it may be that restoration of part or all of the articular surface of a joint will be possible by way of these mesenchymal progenitors that have the ability to differentiate into the chondrogenic and osteogenic lines, which is required for the restoration of the various layers of a normal articular cartilage and subchondral bone.

Exploration of life experiences of positive growth in long-term childhood cancer survivors.

PubMed

Kim, Yoonjung

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to explore experiences of positive growth in long-term childhood cancer survivors, from their perspective. Fifteen long-term survivors of childhood cancer provided descriptions of their experiences. Data were collected through face-to-face interviews and the analysis was based on Giorgi's phenomenological research method. The analysis of positive growth experienced by long-term childhood cancer survivors revealed three themes: self-directed life, normalcy in life, and inner maturity. Long-term survivors defined positive growth as a successful transition to a self-satisfactory life based on motivation acquired through their cancer experience and on subjective goal-setting, as well as becoming cancer-free and living a normal life within society. They seemed to have acquired optimistic, flexible, active attitudes toward life while demonstrating profound gratefulness and consideration of people around them, as well as prudent approaches to health. The findings of this study verified that long-term survivors of childhood cancer have grown positively due to their negative past experience. We expect these findings to contribute to the development of programs that promote positive growth in long-term childhood cancer survivors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-run effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the US agricultural economy

DOE PAGES

Bryant, Henry L.; Campiche, Jody L.; Richardson, James W.

2010-03-09

Renewable energy production has been expanding at a rapid pace. New advances in cellulosic ethanol technologies have the potential to displace the use of petroleum as a transportation fuel, and could have significant effects on both the agricultural economy and the environment. In this letter, the effects of falling cellulosic ethanol production costs on the mix of ethanol feedstocks employed and on the US agricultural economy are examined. Results indicate that, as expected, cellulosic ethanol production increases by a substantial amount as conversion technology improves. Corn production increases initially following the introduction of cellulosic technology, because producers enjoy new revenuemore » from sales of corn stover. After cellulosic ethanol production becomes substantially cheaper, however, acres are shifted from corn production to all other agricultural commodities. Essentially, this new technology could facilitate the exploitation of a previously under-employed resource (corn stover), resulting in an improvement in overall welfare. Thus in the most optimistic scenario considered, 68% of US ethanol is derived from cellulosic sources, coarse grain production is reduced by about 2%, and the prices of all food commodities are reduced modestly.« less

Optimism and its impact on mental and physical well-being.

PubMed

Conversano, Ciro; Rotondo, Alessandro; Lensi, Elena; Della Vista, Olivia; Arpone, Francesca; Reda, Mario Antonio

2010-05-14

Many studies have been carried out about the effectiveness of optimism as a psychological phenomenon, leading to various theoretical formulations of the same concept, conceptualized as "disposition", "attributional style", "cognitive bias", or "shared illusion". This overview is an attempt to explore the "optimism" concept and its relations with mental health, physical health, coping, quality of life and adaptation of purpose, health lifestyle and risk perception. Positive and negative expectations regarding the future are important for understanding the vulnerability to mental disorders, in particular mood and anxiety disorders, as well as to physical illness. A significant positive relation emerges between optimism and coping strategies focused on social support and emphasis on positive aspects of stressful situations. Through employment of specific coping strategies, optimism exerts an indirect influence also on the quality of life. There is evidence that optimistic people present a higher quality of life compared to those with low levels of optimism or even pessimists. Optimism may significantly influence mental and physical well-being by the promotion of a healthy lifestyle as well as by adaptive behaviours and cognitive responses, associated with greater flexibility, problem-solving capacity and a more efficient elaboration of negative information.

Seeing what you want to see: priors for one's own actions represent exaggerated expectations of success

PubMed Central

Wolpe, Noham; Wolpert, Daniel M.; Rowe, James B.

2014-01-01

People perceive the consequences of their own actions differently to how they perceive other sensory events. A large body of psychology research has shown that people also consistently overrate their own performance relative to others, yet little is known about how these “illusions of superiority” are normally maintained. Here we examined the visual perception of the sensory consequences of self-generated and observed goal-directed actions. Across a series of visuomotor tasks, we found that the perception of the sensory consequences of one's own actions is more biased toward success relative to the perception of observed actions. Using Bayesian models, we show that this bias could be explained by priors that represent exaggerated predictions of success. The degree of exaggeration of priors was unaffected by learning, but was correlated with individual differences in trait optimism. In contrast, when observing these actions, priors represented more accurate predictions of the actual performance. The results suggest that the brain internally represents optimistic predictions for one's own actions. Such exaggerated predictions bind the sensory consequences of our own actions with our intended goal, explaining how it is that when acting we tend to see what we want to see. PMID:25018710

Income distribution trends and future food demand.

PubMed

Cirera, Xavier; Masset, Edoardo

2010-09-27

This paper surveys the theoretical literature on the relationship between income distribution and food demand, and identifies main gaps of current food modelling techniques that affect the accuracy of food demand projections. At the heart of the relationship between income distribution and food demand is Engel's law. Engel's law establishes that as income increases, households' demand for food increases less than proportionally. A consequence of this law is that the particular shape of the distribution of income across individuals and countries affects the rate of growth of food demand. Our review of the literature suggests that existing models of food demand fail to incorporate the required Engel flexibility when (i) aggregating different food budget shares among households; and (ii) changing budget shares as income grows. We perform simple simulations to predict growth in food demand under alternative income distribution scenarios taking into account nonlinearity of food demand. Results suggest that (i) distributional effects are to be expected from changes in between-countries inequality, rather than within-country inequality; and (ii) simulations of an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario of income inequality suggest that world food demand in 2050 would be 2.7 per cent higher and 5.4 per cent lower than distributional-neutral growth, respectively.

X-ray detectability of accreting isolated black holes in our Galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsuna, Daichi; Kawanaka, Norita; Totani, Tomonori

2018-06-01

Detectability of isolated black holes (IBHs) without a companion star but emitting X-rays by accretion from dense interstellar medium (ISM) or molecular cloud gas is investigated. We calculate orbits of IBHs in the Galaxy to derive a realistic spatial distribution of IBHs for various mean values of kick velocity at their birth υavg. X-ray luminosities of these IBHs are then calculated considering various phases of ISM and molecular clouds for a wide range of the accretion efficiency λ (a ratio of the actual accretion rate to the Bondi rate) that is rather uncertain. It is found that detectable IBHs mostly reside near the Galactic Centre (GC), and hence taking the Galactic structure into account is essential. In the hard X-ray band, where identification of IBHs from other contaminating X-ray sources may be easier, the expected number of IBHs detectable by the past survey by NuSTAR towards GC is at most order unity. However, 30-100 IBHs may be detected by the future survey by FORCE with an optimistic parameter set of υavg = 50 km s-1 and λ = 0.1, implying that it may be possible to detect IBHs or constrain the model parameters.

Design and analysis of 30 nm T-gate InAlN/GaN HEMT with AlGaN back-barrier for high power microwave applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murugapandiyan, P.; Ravimaran, S.; William, J.; Meenakshi Sundaram, K.

2017-11-01

In this article, we present the DC and microwave characteristics of a novel 30 nm T-gate InAlN/AlN/GaN HEMT with AlGaN back-barrier. The device structure is simulated by using Synopsys Sentaurus TCAD Drift-Diffusion transport model at room temperature. The device features are heavily doped (n++ GaN) source/drain regions with Si3N4 passivated device surface for reducing the contact resistances and gate capacitances of the device, which uplift the microwave characteristics of the HEMTs. 30 nm gate length D-mode (E-mode) HEMT exhibited a peak drain current density Idmax of 2.3 (2.42) A/mm, transconductance gm of 1.24(1.65) S/mm, current gain cut-off frequency ft of 262 (246) GHz, power gain cut-off frequency fmax of 246(290) GHz and the three terminal off-state breakdown voltage VBR of 40(38) V. The preeminent microwave characteristics with the higher breakdown voltage of the proposed GaN-based HEMT are the expected to be the most optimistic applicant for future high power millimeter wave applications.

Assessing future reactive nitrogen inputs into global croplands based on the shared socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogollón, J. M.; Lassaletta, L.; Beusen, A. H. W.; van Grinsven, H. J. M.; Westhoek, H.; Bouwman, A. F.

2018-04-01

Reactive nitrogen (N) inputs in agriculture strongly outpace the outputs at the global scale due to inefficiencies in cropland N use. While improvement in agricultural practices and environmental legislation in developed regions such as Western Europe have led to a remarkable increase in the N use efficiency since 1985, this lower requirement for reactive N inputs via synthetic fertilizers has yet to occur in many developing and transition regions. Here, we explore future N input requirements and N use efficiency in agriculture for the five shared socioeconomic pathways. Results show that under the most optimistic sustainability scenario, the global synthetic fertilizer use in croplands stabilizes and even shrinks (85 Tg N yr‑1 in 2050) regardless of the increase in crop production required to feed the larger estimated population. This scenario is highly dependent on projected increases in N use efficiency, particularly in South and East Asia. In our most pessimistic scenario, synthetic fertilization application rates are expected to increase almost threefold by 2050 (260 Tg N yr‑1). Excepting the sustainability scenario, all other projected scenarios reveal that the areal N surpluses will exceed acceptable limits in most of the developing regions.

Increasing Optimism Protects Against Pain-Induced Impairment in Task-Shifting Performance.

PubMed

Boselie, Jantine J L M; Vancleef, Linda M G; Peters, Madelon L

2017-04-01

Persistent pain can lead to difficulties in executive task performance. Three core executive functions that are often postulated are inhibition, updating, and shifting. Optimism, the tendency to expect that good things happen in the future, has been shown to protect against pain-induced performance deterioration in executive function updating. This study tested whether this protective effect of a temporary optimistic state by means of a writing and visualization exercise extended to executive function shifting. A 2 (optimism: optimism vs no optimism) × 2 (pain: pain vs no pain) mixed factorial design was conducted. Participants (N = 61) completed a shifting task once with and once without concurrent painful heat stimulation after an optimism or neutral manipulation. Results showed that shifting performance was impaired when experimental heat pain was applied during task execution, and that optimism counteracted pain-induced deterioration in task-shifting performance. Experimentally-induced heat pain impairs shifting task performance and manipulated optimism or induced optimism counteracted this pain-induced performance deterioration. Identifying psychological factors that may diminish the negative effect of persistent pain on the ability to function in daily life is imperative. Copyright © 2016 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A financial planning model for estimating hospital debt capacity.

PubMed Central

Hopkins, D S; Heath, D; Levin, P J

1982-01-01

A computer-based financial planning model was formulated to measure the impact of a major capital improvement project on the fiscal health of Stanford University Hospital. The model had to be responsive to many variables and easy to use, so as to allow for the testing of numerous alternatives. Special efforts were made to identify the key variables that needed to be presented in the model and to include all known links between capital investment, debt, and hospital operating expenses. Growth in the number of patient days of care was singled out as a major source of uncertainty that would have profound effects on the hospital's finances. Therefore this variable was subjected to special scrutiny in terms of efforts to gauge expected demographic trends and market forces. In addition, alternative base runs of the model were made under three distinct patient-demand assumptions. Use of the model enabled planners at the Stanford University Hospital (a) to determine that a proposed modernization plan was financially feasible under a reasonable (that is, not unduly optimistic) set of assumptions and (b) to examine the major sources of risk. Other than patient demand, these sources were found to be gross revenues per patient, operating costs, and future limitations on government reimbursement programs. When the likely financial consequences of these risks were estimated, both separately and in combination, it was determined that even if two or more assumptions took a somewhat more negative turn than was expected, the hospital would be able to offset adverse consequences by a relatively minor reduction in operating costs. PMID:7111658

The Daring Dozen

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George Lucas Educational Foundation, 2004

2004-01-01

This document highlights a dozen people who are believed to represent the vibrant heart and optimistic soul of education. Each one has gone above and beyond, frequently overcoming bureaucratic hurdles or professional skepticism. They come from all corners: Classrooms, the business world, academia, research labs, even the Library of Congress. The…

The Twenty-First Century University: Some Reservations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wasser, Henry

2001-01-01

Asserts that the university is in the process of transformation and that interpretations of data intended to show the features of this reinvented university are not completely satisfactory. Suggests that previously published views may be too optimistic and hierarchical, and that an egalitarian if pluralistic university structure and…

Q&A: The sci-fi optimist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merali, Zeeya

2014-09-01

Best-selling science-fiction writer Neal Stephenson's works cover everything from cryptography to Sumerian mythology. Ahead of next year's novel Seveneves, he talks about his influences, the stagnation in material technologies, and Hieroglyph, the forthcoming science-fiction anthology that he kick-started to stimulate the next generation of engineers.

Excerpts from selected LANDSAT 1 final reports in geology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, N. M.; Smith, A.; Baker, R.

1976-01-01

The standard formats for the summaries of selected LANDSAT geological data are presented as checklists. These include: (1) value of LANDSAT data to geology, (2) geologic benefits, (3) follow up studies, (4) cost benefits, (5) optimistic working scales, (6) statistical analysis, and (7) enhancement effects.

Motion Pictures: The Child and Adolescent as Moviegoer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iosifian, S. A.; Petrovskii, V. A.

1995-01-01

Attempts a sociopolitical portrait of Russia's young people through an examination of their motion picture viewing habits combined with other survey responses. Discovers that most Russian youth are disinterested in politics, prefer violent Western movies, and remain concerned about crime although they are personally optimistic. Recommends…

Media Matters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Kenneth J.; Pyrillis, Rita; Rosario, Ruben; Stuart, Reginald; Zinngrabe, Elaine

2007-01-01

This article presents five vignettes, written by veteran journalists, that focus on the current and future state of journalism. Despite almost daily reports of media consolidation and newspaper layoffs, the journalists sound a cautionary but optimistic tone about the industry. They weigh in on everything from the threats to diversity to the future…

Creativity in the Later Years: Optimistic Prospects for Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simonton, Dean Keith

1990-01-01

Claims that, despite apparent decline in productivity in final years of life, seven considerations suggest a far more favorable outlook: role of extrinsic influences; contingency on career age; impact of individual differences in creative potential; interdisciplinary variation in age curves; absence of age decrement on…

Learning with Animation and Illusions of Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paik, Eugene S.; Schraw, Gregory

2013-01-01

The illusion of understanding hypothesis asserts that, when people are learning with multimedia presentations, the addition of animation can affect metacognitive monitoring such that they perceive the presentation to be easier to understand and develop more optimistic metacomprehension. As a result, learners invest less cognitive effort when…

Economic Evaluation of Single-Family-Residence Solar-Energy System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Report concludes that where solar-energy system investment costs are presently high, future promise of savings due to increased conventional energy costs is not optimistic. This is because cost of system tends to increase at a rate not significantly less than the cost of conventional energy.

The Information Society: Friendly to Families by Design or by Accident?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirabelli, Alan

Optimistic, "computopian" scenarios of the new information age emphasize the possibility of radically reversing the central tendencies of industrialization through the implementation of computer technologies that increase the ability to recognize and accommodate the needs of individuals. Pessimistic, dystopian scenarios, in contrast,…

The active titration method for measuring local hydroxyl radical concentration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprengnether, Michele; Prinn, Ronald G.

1994-01-01

We are developing a method for measuring ambient OH by monitoring its rate of reaction with a chemical species. Our technique involves the local, instantaneous release of a mixture of saturated cyclic hydrocarbons (titrants) and perfluorocarbons (dispersants). These species must not normally be present in ambient air above the part per trillion concentration. We then track the mixture downwind using a real-time portable ECD tracer instrument. We collect air samples in canisters every few minutes for roughly one hour. We then return to the laboratory and analyze our air samples to determine the ratios of the titrant to dispersant concentrations. The trends in these ratios give us the ambient OH concentration from the relation: dlnR/dt = -k(OH). A successful measurement of OH requires that the trends in these ratios be measureable. We must not perturb ambient OH concentrations. The titrant to dispersant ratio must be spatially invariant. Finally, heterogeneous reactions of our titrant and dispersant species must be negligible relative to the titrant reaction with OH. We have conducted laboratory studies of our ability to measure the titrant to dispersant ratios as a function of concentration down to the few part per trillion concentration. We have subsequently used these results in a gaussian puff model to estimate our expected uncertainty in a field measurement of OH. Our results indicate that under a range of atmospheric conditions we expect to be able to measure OH with a sensitivity of 3x10(exp 5) cm(exp -3). In our most optimistic scenarios, we obtain a sensitivity of 1x10(exp 5) cm(exp -3). These sensitivity values reflect our anticipated ability to measure the ratio trends. However, because we are also using a rate constant to obtain our (OH) from this ratio trend, our accuracy cannot be better than that of the rate constant, which we expect to be about 20 percent.

Determinants of Patient-Oncologist Prognostic Discordance in Advanced Cancer

PubMed Central

Gramling, Robert; Fiscella, Kevin; Xing, Guibo; Hoerger, Michael; Duberstein, Paul; Plumb, Sandy; Mohile, Supriya; Fenton, Joshua J.; Tancredi, Daniel J.; Kravitz, Richard L.; Epstein, Ronald M.

2018-01-01

IMPORTANCE Patients with advanced cancer often report expectations for survival that differ from their oncologists’ expectations. Whether patients know that their survival expectations differ from those of their oncologists remains unknown. This distinction is important because knowingly expressing differences of opinion is important for shared decision making, whereas patients not knowing that their understanding differs from that of their treating physician is a potential marker of inadequate communication. OBJECTIVE To describe the prevalence, distribution, and proportion of prognostic discordance that is due to patients’ knowingly vs unknowingly expressing an opinion that differs from that of their oncologist. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Cross-sectional study conducted at academic and community oncology practices in Rochester, New York, and Sacramento, California. The sample comprises 236 patients with advanced cancer and their 38 oncologists who participated in a randomized trial of an intervention to improve clinical communication. Participants were enrolled from August 2012 to June 2014 and followed up until October 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES We ascertained discordance by comparing patient and oncologist ratings of 2-year survival probability. For discordant pairs, we determined whether patients knew that their opinions differed from those of their oncologists by asking the patients to report how they believed their oncologists rated their 2-year survival. RESULTS Among the 236 patients (mean [SD] age, 64.5 [11.4] years; 54%female), 161 patient-oncologist survival prognosis ratings (68%; 95%CI, 62%–75%) were discordant. Discordance was substantially more common among nonwhite patients compared with white patients (95%[95%CI, 86%–100%] vs 65%[95%CI, 58%–73%], respectively; P = .03). Among 161 discordant patients, 144 (89%) did not know that their opinions differed from that of their oncologists and nearly all of them (155 of 161 [96%]) were more optimistic than their oncologists. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, patient-oncologist discordance about survival prognosis was common and patients rarely knew that their opinions differed from those of their oncologists. PMID:27415765

Consumer Opinions of Health Information Exchange, e-Prescribing, and Personal Health Records.

PubMed

Cochran, Gary L; Lander, Lina; Morien, Marsha; Lomelin, Daniel E; Brittin, Jeri; Reker, Celeste; Klepser, Donald G

2015-01-01

Consumer satisfaction is a crucial component of health information technology (HIT) utilization, as high satisfaction is expected to increase HIT utilization among providers and to allow consumers to become full participants in their own healthcare management. The primary objective of this pilot study was to identify consumer perspectives on health information technologies including health information exchange (HIE), e-prescribing (e-Rx), and personal health records (PHRs). Eight focus groups were conducted in seven towns and cities across Nebraska in 2013. Each group consisted of 10-12 participants. Discussions were organized topically in the following categories: HIE, e-Rx, and PHR. The qualitative analysis consisted of immersion and crystallization to develop a coding scheme that included both preconceived and emergent themes. Common themes across focus groups were identified and compiled for each discussion category. The study had 67 participants, of which 18 (27 percent) were male. Focus group findings revealed both perceived barriers and benefits to the adoption of HIT. Common HIT concerns expressed across focus groups included privacy and security of medical information, decreases in quality of care, inconsistent provider participation, and the potential cost of implementation. Positive expectations regarding HIT included better accuracy and completeness of information, and improved communication and coordination between healthcare providers. Improvements in patient care were expected as a result of easy physician access to consolidated information across providers as well as the speed of sharing and availability of information in an emergency. In addition, participants were optimistic about patient empowerment and convenient access to and control of personal health data. Consumer concerns focused on privacy and security of the health information, as well as the cost of implementing the technologies and the possibility of an unintended negative impact on the quality of care. While negative perceptions present barriers for potential patient acceptance, benefits such as speed and convenience, patient oversight of health data, and safety improvements may counterbalance these concerns.

Consumer Opinions of Health Information Exchange, e-Prescribing, and Personal Health Records

PubMed Central

Cochran, Gary L.; Lander, Lina; Morien, Marsha; Lomelin, Daniel E.; Brittin, Jeri; Reker, Celeste; Klepser, Donald G.

2015-01-01

Background Consumer satisfaction is a crucial component of health information technology (HIT) utilization, as high satisfaction is expected to increase HIT utilization among providers and to allow consumers to become full participants in their own healthcare management. Objective The primary objective of this pilot study was to identify consumer perspectives on health information technologies including health information exchange (HIE), e-prescribing (e-Rx), and personal health records (PHRs). Methods Eight focus groups were conducted in seven towns and cities across Nebraska in 2013. Each group consisted of 10–12 participants. Discussions were organized topically in the following categories: HIE, e-Rx, and PHR. The qualitative analysis consisted of immersion and crystallization to develop a coding scheme that included both preconceived and emergent themes. Common themes across focus groups were identified and compiled for each discussion category. Results The study had 67 participants, of which 18 (27 percent) were male. Focus group findings revealed both perceived barriers and benefits to the adoption of HIT. Common HIT concerns expressed across focus groups included privacy and security of medical information, decreases in quality of care, inconsistent provider participation, and the potential cost of implementation. Positive expectations regarding HIT included better accuracy and completeness of information, and improved communication and coordination between healthcare providers. Improvements in patient care were expected as a result of easy physician access to consolidated information across providers as well as the speed of sharing and availability of information in an emergency. In addition, participants were optimistic about patient empowerment and convenient access to and control of personal health data. Conclusion Consumer concerns focused on privacy and security of the health information, as well as the cost of implementing the technologies and the possibility of an unintended negative impact on the quality of care. While negative perceptions present barriers for potential patient acceptance, benefits such as speed and convenience, patient oversight of health data, and safety improvements may counterbalance these concerns. PMID:26604874

The case for Ofsmoke: the potential for price cap regulation of tobacco to raise £500 million per year in the UK.

PubMed

Branston, J Robert; Gilmore, Anna B

2014-01-01

A system of price-cap regulation has previously been suggested to address the market failure inherent to the tobacco industry. This would benefit public health directly (eg, by making it extremely difficult for the industry to sell cut-price cigarettes, or use price as a marketing strategy) and indirectly (eg, by reducing the available money the industry has for spending on marketing and lobbying). This paper explores the feasibility of applying such a scheme in the UK. The impact of price-capping is modelled using optimistic and conservative scenarios, each with different assumptions, and using 2009 and 2010 profit data for the major companies selling tobacco in the UK. The models are used to calculate by how much would profit be reduced through the imposition of price caps, and thus, how much revenue could be raised in additional taxes, assuming the end price the consumer pays does not change. Tobacco companies enjoy massive profit margins, up to 67%, in the UK. The optimistic scenario suggests a potential increase in UK tobacco tax revenue of £585.7 million in 2010 (£548.4 million in 2009), while the conservative model suggests an increase in revenue of £433.6 million in 2010 (£399.2 million in 2009). This would be approximately enough to fund, twice over, UK-wide antitobacco smuggling measures, and smoking cessation services in England, including the associated pharmacotherapies, to help people stop smoking. Applying a system of price-cap regulation in the UK would raise around £500 million per annum (US$750 million). This is likely to be an underestimate because of cautious assumptions used in the model. These significant financial benefits, in addition to the public health benefits that would be generated, suggest this is a policy that should be given serious consideration.

THE CASE FOR OFSMOKE: THE POTENTIAL FOR PRICE CAP REGULATION OF TOBACCO TO RAISE £500M PER YEAR IN THE UK

PubMed Central

Robert Branston, J.; Gilmore, Anna B.

2013-01-01

Objective A system of price-cap regulation has previously been suggested to address the market failure inherent to the tobacco industry. This would benefit public health directly (for example, by making it extremely difficult for the industry to sell cut price cigarettes or use price as a marketing strategy) and indirectly (for example, by reducing the money industry has available to spend on marketing and lobbying). This paper explores the feasibility of applying such a scheme in the UK. Methods The impact of price-capping is modelled using optimistic and conservative scenarios, each with different assumptions, and using 2009 and 2010 profit data for the major companies selling tobacco in the UK. The models are used to calculate by how much profit would be reduced through the imposition of price caps, and thus how much revenue could be raised in additional taxes, assuming the end price the consumer pays does not change. Results Tobacco companies enjoy massive profit margins, up to 67%, in the UK. The optimistic scenario suggests a potential increase in UK tobacco tax revenue of £585.7m in 2010 (£548.4m in 2009), while the conservative model suggests an increase in revenue of £433.6m in 2010 (£399.2m in 2009). This would be approximately enough to fund, twice over, UK wide anti-tobacco smuggling measures and smoking cessation services in England including the associated pharmacotherapies. Conclusions Applying a system of price cap regulation in the UK would raise around £500m per annum (US$750m). This is likely to be an under-estimate because of cautious assumptions used in the model. These significant financial benefits, in addition to the public health benefits that would be generated, suggest this is a policy that should be given serious consideration. PMID:23322310

Educational differences in leisure-time physical inactivity: a descriptive and explanatory study.

PubMed

Droomers, M; Schrijvers, C T; van de Mheen, H; Mackenbach, J P

1998-12-01

In this study we aim to explain educational differences in leisure-time physical inactivity in terms of psychosocial and material factors. Cross-sectional data were obtained from the baseline of the Dutch GLOBE study in 1991, including 2598 men and women, aged 15-74 years. Physical inactivity during leisure time was defined as not participating in any activity, such as sports, gardening, walking or cycling. Psychosocial factors included in the study were coping resources, personality, and stressors. Material factors were financial situation, employment status, and living conditions. Logistic regression models were used to calculate educational differences in physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was more prevalent in lower educational groups. Psychosocial factors related to physical inactivity were locus of control, parochialism, neuroticism, emotional social support, active problem focussing, optimistic and palliative coping styles. Material factors associated with physical inactivity were income, employment status and financial problems. All correlates of physical inactivity were unequally distributed over educational groups, except optimistic and palliative coping. Personality and coping style were the main contributors to the observed educational differences in physical inactivity. That is to say, parochialism, locus of control, neuroticism and active problem focussing explained about half of elevated odds ratios of physical inactivity in the lower educational groups. The material factors, equivalent income and employment status explained about 40% of the elevated odds ratios. Psychosocial and material correlates together reduced the odds ratios of lower educational groups by on average 75%. These results have practical consequences for the design of more effective interventions to promote physical activity. In particular, personality and coping style of risk groups, such as lower educational groups, should be taken into consideration at the future development of these interventions, as well as inequalities in material restrictions related to engaging in physical activity. Supplementary interventions focussing on childhood conditions which, partly, influence both personality and physical inactivity may also contribute to a reduction of socio-economic differences in physical inactivity.

Will Online Learning Lower the Price of College?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Casement, William

2013-01-01

Online learning is revolutionizing the way colleges do business. Study via the Internet makes more knowledge more easily obtainable for more students than ever before. Along with expanded access to higher education, many people are optimistic about an accompanying benefit--a lower price tag. Basic economic factors make the prospect appear…

CARBON DIOXIDE FROM FOSSIL FUELS: ADAPTING TO UNCERTAINTY

EPA Science Inventory

The paper discusses the general effect and control of CO2. The world is likely to experience noticeable global warming by the beginning of the next century if high annual growth rates of fossil fuel energy use continue. Only with optimistic assumptions and low growth rates will C...

The Internet, Political Participation, and E-Government in Comparative Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharma, Mukul

2010-01-01

This dissertation addresses three important questions, together with optimistic and pessimistic views, about people's access/use of the Internet, its ability to promote their participation in politics, and its role in government provision of information and public services. Chapter Two addresses the question of the determinants of people's access…

Institutional Consequences of Quality Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joao Rosa, Maria; Tavares, Diana; Amaral, Alberto

2006-01-01

This paper analyses the opinions of Portuguese university rectors and academics on the quality assessment system and its consequences at the institutional level. The results obtained show that university staff (rectors and academics, with more of the former than the latter) held optimistic views of the positive consequences of quality assessment…

Today's College Students: Going First Class on the Titanic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Arthur

1981-01-01

There is a sense among today's students that they are passengers on a sinking ship, even though they are optimistic about their own futures. A new curriculum including interdisciplinary study, majors in problems rather than disciplines, career internships, and theses is proposed to counter student attitudes. (MSE)

How the News Media Reported on Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rubin, David M.

1987-01-01

Investigates and compares events following two nuclear accidents in the United States and the Soviet Union. Considers that the accompanying flow of information shows that the optimistic bulletins of official sources provided too few facts and weakened credibility with both journalists and the public. (NKA)

The Pacific Oaks College's Prism Principles Professional Development Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beyer, Kalani

2012-01-01

In a struggling atmosphere for education, one college is optimistic about the future by offering school districts its PRISM Principles professional development as a means to ensure that "no child is left behind." Pacific Oaks College & Children's School is known for its premiere programs in early childhood education, human…

Using Positive Education to Enliven the Teaching of Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobs, George M.; Renandya, Willy A.

2017-01-01

Positive education is a relatively new, student centred approach which takes an optimistic view of learning, seeks to build on students' individual and collective strengths and encourages students to take responsibility for collaboratively interacting with peers for the benefit of themselves and others. This article begins by explaining some of…

Fixing the Copier

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schaffhauser, Dian

2013-01-01

Plagiarism is rife on campus, with students lifting material from a host of online sources. While technology has made cheating much easier, can it also provide a solution? Internet access allows students to hit cheat sites and paper mills, copy off websites, and "collaborate" with fellow students. However taking an optimistic view of the…

The Spaces and Ethics of Organic Food

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, Nick; Cloke, Paul; Barnett, Clive; Malpass, Alice

2008-01-01

Initial assessments of the potential for organic food systems have offered an optimistic interpretation of the progressive political and ethical characteristics involved. This positive gloss has prompted a stream of critique emphasising the need to explore the ambiguities and disconnections inherent therein. In this paper, we consider the case of…

English-Medium Instruction in Chinese Higher Education: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hu, Guangwei; Lei, Jun

2014-01-01

With the relentless internationalization and marketization of higher education in the past decades, English has been increasingly adopted as a medium of instruction at universities across the world. Recent research, however, has shown that despite its various optimistically envisioned goals, English-medium instruction (EMI) is not without problems…

Comparison between Couple Attachment Styles, Stress Coping Styles and Self-Esteem Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çolakkadioglu, Oguzhan; Akbas, Turan; Uslu, Sevcan Karabulut

2017-01-01

Data were acquired from a total of 422 university students with 216 female and 206 male students via Couple Attachment Scale, Stress Coping Styles Scale and Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory. Positive and statistically significant relationships were determined between self-confident approach, optimistic approach and social support approach…

Morrison Rebuttal to Adragna.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, David C.

1985-01-01

Steven Adragna's arguments for a space-based ballistic missile defense (Georgia Social Science Journal; v16 n2 p14-16 Spr 1985) are founded on the High Frontier organization's usual distortions of the historical record, coupled with a wildly optimistic technological euphoria shared by few of even the Strategic Defense Initiative's most ardent…

Breakdown

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moskowitz, Eva

2006-01-01

The multiplicity of ills facing the nation's public schools can depress even the most optimistic. In this article, the author presents her views about the school system and the negative effects that labor agreements have had on it. Her views on how to solve some seemingly intractable education problems have been informed by two experiences: her…

Hope in Civic Action: To Be Optimistic and Non-Prejudicial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferrari, Joseph R.; Haq, Arsalan; Williams, Shannon M.

2014-01-01

The present study explored perceptions of hope for social change through civic engagement. Psychology majors, active in campus clubs and organizations (n = 52; M age = 19 years old) completed survey measures predicting hopeful (agency and pathways) tendencies by positive personality qualities, such as positive perceptions of life, being…

Journeying through Despair, Battling for Hope: The Experience of One Environmental Educator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andre, Elizabeth Kathryn

2011-01-01

Environmentalism and environmental education can lead people to experience feelings of despair as they learn more about the severity and complexity of environmental challenges. Environmental educators often grapple with questions of how to remain hopeful without being naively optimistic and how to balance professional responsibilities with…

What Are the Metacognitive Costs of Young Children's Overconfidence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Destan, Nesrin; Roebers, Claudia M.

2015-01-01

Children typically hold very optimistic views of their own skills but so far, only a few studies have investigated possible correlates of the ability to predict performance accurately. Therefore, this study examined the role of individual differences in performance estimation accuracy as a global metacognitive index for different monitoring and…

Broad Academy's Growing Reach Draws Scrutiny

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samuels, Christina A.

2011-01-01

Billionaire businessman Eli Broad, one of the country's most active philanthropists, founded the Broad Superintendents Academy in 2002 with an extraordinarily optimistic goal: Find leaders from both inside and outside education, train them, and have them occupying the superintendencies in a third of the 75 largest school districts--in just two…

Broad Academy's Growing Reach Draws Scrutiny

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samuels, Christina A.

2011-01-01

Billionaire businessman Eli Broad, one of the country's most active philanthropists, founded the "Broad Superintendents Academy" in 2002 with an extraordinarily optimistic goal: Find leaders from both inside and outside education, train them, and have them occupying the superintendencies in a third of the 75 largest school districts--all in just…

Creating Social Presence in Online Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aragon, Steven R.

2003-01-01

During the last decade, the Internet has significantly changed the way learning is delivered and facilitated in both educational and noneducational settings. Advocates of Internet-based instruction are largely positive and optimistic about its potential. Before it can be fully accepted by the mainstream public and educational community, however,…

Problem Solving Self-Appraisal and Coping Efforts in Distressed and Nondistressed Couples.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sabourin, Stephane; And Others

1990-01-01

Investigated relationship between problem-solving self-appraisal, specific coping efforts, and marital distress in 75 couples. Findings showed less problem-solving confidence, tendency to avoid different problem-solving activities, and poor strategies to control behavior in distressed spouses. Three coping efforts--optimistic comparisons,…

Parental Grief Responses and Personal Growth Following the Death of a Child

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riley, Linda P.; LaMontagne, Lynda L.; Hepworth, Joseph T.; Murphy, Barbara A.

2007-01-01

Conceptualizing parental grief as a psychosocial transition, this cross-sectional study of bereaved mothers (N = 35) examined the relationship of dispositional factors, grief reactions, and personal growth. More optimistic mothers reported less intense grief reactions and less distress indicative of complicated grief. Additionally, mothers who…

Managing a Multi-ethnic and Multicultural City in Europe: Leicester.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winstone, Paul

1996-01-01

Profiles the English Midlands city of Leicester, an industrial center with a growing immigrant and minority population. Discusses the city government's response to problems concerning jobs, housing, and a racist backlash. The outlook is optimistic as the minority citizens assume new roles in the social and economic community. (MJP)

Educational Optimism among Parents: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Räty, Hannu; Kasanen, Kati

2016-01-01

This study explored parents' (N = 351) educational optimism in terms of their trust in the possibilities of school to develop children's intelligence. It was found that educational optimism could be depicted as a bipolar factor with optimism and pessimism on the opposing ends of the same dimension. Optimistic parents indicated more satisfaction…

Potential Habitable Zone Exomoon Candidates and Radial Velocity Estimates for Giant Kepler HZ Candidates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, M. L.; Kane, S. R.; Duarte, E. S.; Kopparapu, R. K.; Gelino, D. M.; Whittenmyer, R. A.

2017-11-01

We found 39 planet candidates greater than 3 earth radii residing in the Optimistic Habitable Zone of their host star. While giant planets aren't favored in the search for eta Earth, they indicate potential for moons residing in the habitable zone.

SLJ's 2011 Technology Survey: Things Are Changing. Fast

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenney, Brian

2011-01-01

Despite the funding challenges nearly all school libraries face, many media specialists are optimistic about the role of technology in the school library, according to "School Library Journal's" ("SLJ") 2011 Technology Survey. But in spite of the general optimism, others point to some significant obstacles: technological innovations are often…

Youth Perceptions of Their School Violence Risks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapin, John

2008-01-01

In order to gauge youth perceptions of school violence, this study links two perceptual bias literatures: third-person perception and optimistic bias. The intersection of the two literatures may be especially beneficial in understanding how adolescents process and interpret public health messages and subsequently engage in risk behaviors or…

[Stem cell-based cardiac regeneration after myocardial infarction].

PubMed

Reinsch, M; Weinberger, F

2018-03-01

Myocardial infarction leads to an irreversible loss of vital myocardial cells. The transplantation of new cardiomyocytes into the heart was first described over 20 years ago and represents a straightforward approach to remuscularize a damaged heart. Due to the lack of human cells a clinical application seemed ambitious; however, dramatic progress in stem cell biology over the last two decades has paved the way towards a clinical application. This is especially important as the prognosis for patients with terminal heart failure is still poor. The transplantation of either cardiomyocytes or engineered heart tissue derived from pluripotent stem cells (either embryonic stem cells or induced pluripotent stem cells) might represent a new regenerative approach. Transplantation of either cells or tissue constructs has now been evaluated in several preclinical models, which have demonstrated that an injured heart can be (partially) remuscularized; however, major hurdles towards a clinical application are the transplantation-related occurrence of arrhythmia, the potential tumorigenicity of pluripotent cells and the required immunosuppression. Several groups are working hard to solve these problems and we are optimistic that the first clinical studies will take place within the next few years.

Summary of sessions on nuclear astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolfs, C.

In the minds of some there exists the patronizing belief that nuclear physics is a mature science. The same is not believed about nuclear astrophysics, which has been an active branch of astrophysics for over fifty years, but is now in the midst of an exciting revival in experimental and theoretical research around the world. The ultimate goal is to understand how nuclear processes generate the energy of stars over their lifetimes and, in doing so, synthesize heavier elements from the primordial hydrogen and helium produced in the Big Bang, which led to the expanding universe. Impressive progress has been made in this goal and this was rewarded. However, there are major puzzles, such as the solar neutrino problem to name just one, which challenge the fundaments of the field. To solve these problems, new nuclear physics data are needed employing novel experimental techniques such as radioactive ion beams and underground accelerator facilities. Without such new data, much of the work done so far will - in an optimistic view - be incomplete and - in a pessimistic view - be possibly wrong. Thus, new data do not represent a fine structure information or a cleaning-up job, but they represent the major next step in this exciting field&

Using auxiliary information to improve wildlife disease surveillance when infected animals are not detected: a Bayesian approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heisey, Dennis M.; Jennelle, Christopher S.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2014-01-01

There are numerous situations in which it is important to determine whether a particular disease of interest is present in a free-ranging wildlife population. However adequate disease surveillance can be labor-intensive and expensive and thus there is substantial motivation to conduct it as efficiently as possible. Surveillance is often based on the assumption of a simple random sample, but this can almost always be improved upon if there is auxiliary information available about disease risk factors. We present a Bayesian approach to disease surveillance when auxiliary risk information is available which will usually allow for substantial improvements over simple random sampling. Others have employed risk weights in surveillance, but this can result in overly optimistic statements regarding freedom from disease due to not accounting for the uncertainty in the auxiliary information; our approach remedies this. We compare our Bayesian approach to a published example of risk weights applied to chronic wasting disease in deer in Colorado, and we also present calculations to examine when uncertainty in the auxiliary information has a serious impact on the risk weights approach. Our approach allows “apples-to-apples” comparisons of surveillance efficiencies between units where heterogeneous samples were collected

New Markets for Solar Photovoltaic Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Chacko; Jennings, Philip; Singh, Dilawar

2007-10-01

Over the past five years solar photovoltaic (PV) power supply systems have matured and are now being deployed on a much larger scale. The traditional small-scale remote area power supply systems are still important and village electrification is also a large and growing market but large scale, grid-connected systems and building integrated systems are now being deployed in many countries. This growth has been aided by imaginative government policies in several countries and the overall result is a growth rate of over 40% per annum in the sales of PV systems. Optimistic forecasts are being made about the future of PV power as a major source of sustainable energy. Plans are now being formulated by the IEA for very large-scale PV installations of more than 100 MW peak output. The Australian Government has announced a subsidy for a large solar photovoltaic power station of 154 MW in Victoria, based on the concentrator technology developed in Australia. In Western Australia a proposal has been submitted to the State Government for a 2 MW photovoltaic power system to provide fringe of grid support at Perenjori. This paper outlines the technologies, designs, management and policies that underpin these exciting developments in solar PV power.

An exercise in nostalgia: Nostalgia promotes health optimism and physical activity.

PubMed

Kersten, Mike; Cox, Cathy R; Van Enkevort, Erin A

2016-10-01

Previous research has shown that nostalgia, a sentimental longing for the past, leads to greater feelings of optimism, with other work demonstrating that optimistic thinking (general & health-orientated) is associated with better physical and psychological health. Integrating these two lines of research, the current studies examined whether nostalgia-induced health optimism promotes attitudes and behaviours associated with better physical well-being. Participants, in three experiments, were randomly assigned to write about either a nostalgic or ordinary event. Following this, everyone completed a measure of health optimism (Studies 1-3), measures of health attitudes (Study 2) and had their physical activity monitored over the course of 2 weeks (Study 3). The results revealed that, in comparison to control conditions, nostalgic reverie led to greater health optimism (Studies 1-3). Further, heightened health optimism following nostalgic reflection led to more positive health attitudes (Study 2), and increased physical activity over a two-week period (i.e. Fitbit activity trackers; Study 3). These findings highlight the importance of nostalgia on health attitudes and behaviours. Specifically, this work suggests that nostalgia can be used as a mechanism to increase the importance, perceived efficacy and behaviour associated with better physical health.

Developing Remote Sensing Capabilities for Meter-Scale Sea Ice Properties

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

we were still optimistic we’d get at least a handful of coincident data collections. The meteorological conditions, however, were very unfavorable...Beaufort Sea and Laptev Sea (as well as Baffin and Hudson Bay). 16 Figure 8. Seasonal cycle of the melt pond fraction on sea ice from MODIS satellite

Early Returns on District of Columbia Charter Schools. Capital Campaign

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mead, Sara

2005-01-01

In this report for the Progressive Policy Institute's 21st Century Schools Project, the author examines charter schooling in Washington, D.C., including the region's unique history of charter schooling and the challenges these schools face. She is optimistic about the future of the District's charter school movement, but argues that District and…

Learning about Feelings. Learning at Home Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linke, Pam

As part of a series of booklets designed to support parents and carers of young children in the home, this issue explores the challenges that all young children face in learning to manage their feelings and emotions so they can be safe, optimistic, and enthusiastic about life and learning. Following an introductory section emphasizing the early…

Drowning Digitally? How Disequilibrium Shapes Practice in a Blended Learning Charter School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bingham, Andrea J.

2016-01-01

Background/Context: Blended learning--a learning model in which online learning is combined with faceto- face instruction to provide a more personalized learning experience for students--has shown enormous growth in recent years. Though many policymakers and educators are optimistic about the potential of blended learning to provide the type of…

A Changing Health Care Environment: Its Impact on UCSF Graduates' Practice Patterns and Perceptions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sauer, Barbara L.; Koda-Kimble, Mary Anne

1998-01-01

A survey of 754 University of California at San Francisco doctoral pharmacy graduates from 1980 to 1994 investigated how managed care affected practice patterns and perceptions of the profession. Graduates generally remained satisfied with their education and were optimistic about the profession. Although managed care has created a stressful…

Workers' Attitudes toward Productivity. A New Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, Ronald H.; And Others

In response to the steady decline in productivity in the United States, the United States Chamber of Commerce in cooperation with the Gallup Organization conducted a survey of workers to determine their attitudes toward productivity. The probability survey sample of more than 800 workers shows that American workers are optimistic about the ability…

An Exploration of the Relationship between Optimistic Explanatory Style and Doctoral Study Completion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richards, Constance V. S.

2012-01-01

Few studies have explored the positive characteristics that motivate doctoral students to pursue and complete their degree; research has historically focused on doctoral student attrition. To fully understand doctoral student success, research must focus on factors that contribute to completion. Based on Seligman's theory of explanatory style,…

World Development Report 1991: The Challenge of Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Bank, Washington, DC.

This report attempts to show how government and markets can interact most effectively to promote rapid economic development and benefit all people. The world economy is reviewed and an assessment is made of the impact of external factors on development. Alternative scenarios, optimistic and pessimistic, for the 1990s are considered. Four…

Is There a History of Educational Philosophy? John White vs the Historical Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muir, James R.

2004-01-01

In his recent review of Amelie Rorty's collection, "Philosophers on Education: New Historical Perspectives," John White makes the uncontroversial observation that the future of philosophy of education within Educational Studies is uncertain. He chooses to be optimistic, hoping that "the climate in which philosophising about education, whether by…

The Changing Ideology of Educational Reform: Equality Yields to Quality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lynch, Patrick D.; Wiggins, Thomas

After World War II, an optimistic, rationalist ideology infused with Jeffersonian values influenced worldwide educational growth. The idea of a universal, free, compulsory system replaced an older elitist ideology. The equality ideology held that (1) cultural integration was necessary for national unity and (2) a shortage of trained manpower was…

Assessing Desistance in Child Molesters: A Qualitative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Mark; Beech, Anthony R.; Ward, Tony

2012-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate the process of desistance from sexual crime by comparing two groups of child molesters: One group was deemed to be "desisting", while men in the other group were deemed as being still potentially "active" offenders. Men in the desisting group reported being optimistic for the future,…

Can Public Research Universities Compete? Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.17.06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brint, Steven

2006-01-01

Many leaders of public research universities worry about falling behind private research universities at a time when private university finances have improved dramatically and state support for higher education has declined. In this paper, I provide grounds for a more optimistic view of the competitive position of public research universities. I…

Intelligent Life Out There: Are We Alone?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blai, Boris, Jr.

For the past two decades, increasing numbers of scientists have been optimistic about finding other intelligent life forms in our galaxy. On the other hand, as knowledge has grown regarding how life developed on earth, a scientific counterrevolution has evolved. Simply stated, it questions the inevitability of widespread life within our galaxy,…

From Zero to Web 2.0: Part 3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodard, Amber

2010-01-01

When the Vise Library at Cumberland University set down the path to their digital makeover, they were optimistic that they could completely revolutionize their library's web presence. They tried to keep their goals manageable, but it turns out they did not "quite" achieve 100% success. In this article, the author describes how they have…

Engineering as a Life-Long Career: Its Meaning, Its Satisfactions, Its Difficulties.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-11-01

reached their career heights, are least likely of any group to be disappointed with their career success . It is Group 2 who evaluate their careers most...period, particularly if they do so relatively early, are most likely to reorient towards work, and most optimistic about their career success . These

Towards a Theory of State-Community Partnerships: Interpreting the Irish Muintir na Tire Movement's Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varley, Tony; O Cearbhaill, Diarmuid

2002-01-01

Applies optimistic and pessimistic models of government/community partnerships to the situation of Muintir na Tire, the Irish community movement. Recommends an activist model that focuses on the ability of community interests to assert collective agency and negotiate more advantageous partnerships. (Contains 28 references.) (SK)

Points of Interest: What Determines Interest Rates?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schilling, Tim

Interest rates can significantly influence people's behavior. When rates decline, homeowners rush to buy new homes and refinance old mortgages; automobile buyers scramble to buy new cars; the stock market soars, and people tend to feel more optimistic about the future. But even though individuals respond to changes in rates, they may not fully…

College Students' Visions of Power and Possibility as Moderated by Gender.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lips, Hilary M.

2000-01-01

Examined how college students imagined their possible powerful selves and absorbed cultural messages about power and gender. Students were asked to describe their possible selves as powerful persons and various types of leaders. Women were less optimistic than men about holding positions of power and were more likely to anticipate problems…

Benchmarking the Intended Technology Curricula of Botswana and South Africa: What Can We Learn?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du Toit, Adri; Gaotlhobogwe, Michael

2017-01-01

Following a transformation of experience-based handicraft education, Technology education was introduced in Botswana and South Africa in 1990 and 1998, respectively, with the intention of developing technologically literate societies, as well as to develop learners' skills for the world of work. Despite these optimistic intentions, limited…

Optimistic Biases in Observational Learning of Value

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nicolle, A.; Symmonds, M.; Dolan, R. J.

2011-01-01

Action-outcome contingencies can be learnt either by active trial-and-error, or vicariously, by observing the outcomes of actions performed by others. The extant literature is ambiguous as to which of these modes of learning is more effective, as controlled comparisons of operant and observational learning are rare. Here, we contrasted human…

Third-Person Perception and School Violence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chapin, John; Coleman, Grace

This study is the first of its kind to study third-person perception within the context of school violence. Linkages to the health psychology literature (optimistic bias) provide the basis for further understanding of adolescents' perceptions of school violence and the influence of media violence in their lives. Results from a survey of 1,500…

Taylorizing Academia, Deskilling Professors and Automating Higher Education: The Recent Role of Moocs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mirrlees, Tanner; Alvi, Shahid

2014-01-01

Since 2012, corporations, politicians, journalists and educators have asserted that MOOCs--massive open online courses--are radically changing North American and global education, and for the better. This article offers a counterpoint to the techno-deterministic and optimistic buzz surrounding for-profit MOOCs by contextualizing and analyzing…

Millennials in Adulthood: Detached from Institutions, Networked with Friends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pew Research Center, 2014

2014-01-01

The Millennial generation is forging a distinctive path into adulthood. Now ranging in age from 18 to 331, they are relatively unattached to organized politics and religion, linked by social media, burdened by debt, distrustful of people, in no rush to marry--and optimistic about the future. They are also America's most racially diverse…

Value learning and the willingness to accept - willingness to pay disparity

Treesearch

David C. Kingsley; Thomas C. Brown

2013-01-01

The assumption that individual preferences are rational and consistent with standard economic theory is often appropriate, but may be optimistic if consumers are uncertain about either their preferences or how the market operates. Both sources of uncertainty may present themselves in lab experiments exploring the well-known disparity between individuals'...

How Prevalent Is Wishful Thinking? Misattribution of Arousal Causes Optimism and Pessimism in Subjective Probabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vosgerau, Joachim

2010-01-01

People appear to be unrealistically optimistic about their future prospects, as reflected by theory and research in the fields of psychology, organizational behavior, behavioral economics, and behavioral finance. Many real-world examples (e.g., consumer behavior during economic recessions), however, suggest that people are not always overly…

The States and Higher Education: A Proud Past and a Vital Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching, New York, NY.

Interrelations between the states and higher education are examined, and a generally optimistic outlook is presented. Two major sections are given, one commentary, the other descriptive. The commentary has these major themes: (1) American higher education, with federal, state, and private funding, has been comparatively effective; (2) some surplus…