Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

2013-01-01

An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin.

EPA Science Inventory

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high‐ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozo...

Variational Assimilation of GOME Total-Column Ozone Satellite Data in a 2D Latitude-Longitude Tracer-Transport Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eskes, H. J.; Piters, A. J. M.; Levelt, P. F.; Allaart, M. A. F.; Kelder, H. M.

1999-10-01

A four-dimensional data-assimilation method is described to derive synoptic ozone fields from total-column ozone satellite measurements. The ozone columns are advected by a 2D tracer-transport model, using ECMWF wind fields at a single pressure level. Special attention is paid to the modeling of the forecast error covariance and quality control. The temporal and spatial dependence of the forecast error is taken into account, resulting in a global error field at any instant in time that provides a local estimate of the accuracy of the assimilated field. The authors discuss the advantages of the 4D-variational (4D-Var) approach over sequential assimilation schemes. One of the attractive features of the 4D-Var technique is its ability to incorporate measurements at later times t > t0 in the analysis at time t0, in a way consistent with the time evolution as described by the model. This significantly improves the offline analyzed ozone fields.

Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shiyuan (Sharon) Zhong; Annie Esperanza; Timothy J. Brown; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Leland Tarnay

2010-01-01

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an...

Extended and refined multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone for the period 1970-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der A, R. J.; Allaart, M. A. F.; Eskes, H. J.

2015-07-01

The ozone multi-sensor reanalysis (MSR) is a multi-decadal ozone column data record constructed using all available ozone column satellite data sets, surface Brewer and Dobson observations and a data assimilation technique with detailed error modelling. The result is a high-resolution time series of 6-hourly global ozone column fields and forecast error fields that may be used for ozone trend analyses as well as detailed case studies. The ozone MSR is produced in two steps. First, the latest reprocessed versions of all available ozone column satellite data sets are collected and then are corrected for biases as a function of solar zenith angle (SZA), viewing zenith angle (VZA), time (trend), and stratospheric temperature using surface observations of the ozone column from Brewer and Dobson spectrophotometers from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC). Subsequently the de-biased satellite observations are assimilated within the ozone chemistry and data assimilation model TMDAM. The MSR2 (MSR version 2) reanalysis upgrade described in this paper consists of an ozone record for the 43-year period 1970-2012. The chemistry transport model and data assimilation system have been adapted to improve the resolution, error modelling and processing speed. Backscatter ultraviolet (BUV) satellite observations have been included for the period 1970-1977. The total record is extended by 13 years compared to the first version of the ozone multi sensor reanalysis, the MSR1. The latest total ozone retrievals of 15 satellite instruments are used: BUV-Nimbus4, TOMS-Nimbus7, TOMS-EP, SBUV-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18, -19, GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI and GOME-2. The resolution of the model runs, assimilation and output is increased from 2° × 3° to 1° × 1°. The analysis is driven by 3-hourly meteorology from the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) starting from 1979, and ERA-40 before that date. The chemistry parameterization has been updated. The performance of the MSR2 analysis is studied with the help of observation-minus-forecast (OmF) departures from the data assimilation, by comparisons with the individual station observations and with ozone sondes. The OmF statistics show that the mean bias of the MSR2 analyses is less than 1 % with respect to de-biased satellite observations after 1979.

A FAST BAYESIAN METHOD FOR UPDATING AND FORECASTING HOURLY OZONE LEVELS

EPA Science Inventory

A Bayesian hierarchical space-time model is proposed by combining information from real-time ambient AIRNow air monitoring data, and output from a computer simulation model known as the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (Eta-CMAQ) forecast model. A model validation analysis shows...

Improving Aerosol and Visibility Forecasting Capabilities Using Current and Future Generations of Satellite Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

improving forecast performance over cloudy regions using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Aerosol Index; and 2) preparing for the post-MODIS...meteorological fields, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) SW and LW surface characteristics, and an ozone climatology are used as...The primary impact of CALIOP assimilation on the model is the redistribution of mass toward the boundary layer from the free troposphere . For high

Comparison of CMAQ Modeling Study with Discover-AQ 2014 Aircraft Measurements over Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Pan, L.; Lee, P.; Tong, D.; Kim, H. C.; Artz, R. S.

2014-12-01

NASA and NCAR jointly led a recent multiple platform-based (space, air and ground) measurement intensive to study air quality and to validate satellite data. The Discover-AQ/FRAPPE field experiment took place along the Colorado Front Range in July and August, 2014. The air quality modeling team of the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory was one of the three teams that provided real-time air quality forecasting for the campaign. The U.S. EPA Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model was used with emission inventories based on the data set used by the NOAA National Air Quality Forecasting Capacity (NAQFC). By analyzing the forecast results calculated using aircraft measurements, it was found that CO emissions tended to be overestimated, while ethane emissions were underestimated. Biogenic VOCs were also underpredicted. Due to their relatively high altitude, ozone concentrations in Denver and the surrounding areas are affected by both local emissions and transported ozone. The modeled ozone was highly dependent on the meteorological predictions over this region. The complex terrain over the Rocky Mountains also contributed to the model uncertainty. This study discussed the causes of model biases, the forecast performance under different meteorology, and results from using different model grid resolutions. Several data assimilation techniques were further tested to improve the "post-analysis" performance of the modeling system for the period.

PERFORMANCE AND DIAGNOSTIC EVALUATION OF OZONE PREDICTIONS BY THE ETA-COMMUNITY MULTISCALE AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM DURING THE 2002 NEW ENGLAND AIR QUALITY STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-CMAQ model suite) has been developed by linking the NCEP Eta model to the U.S. EPA CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting O₃ over the northeastern U.S d...

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of WRF-CMAQ Ozone Simulations over the Contiguous United States (2017 MAC-MAQ Conference Presentation)

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of ozone simulations performed with the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over the contiguous United States is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air ...

VERIFICATION OF SURFACE LAYER OZONE FORECASTS IN THE NOAA/EPA AIR QUALITY FORECAST SYSTEM IN DIFFERENT REGIONS UNDER DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

An air quality forecast (AQF) system has been established at NOAA/NCEP since 2003 as a collaborative effort of NOAA and EPA. The system is based on NCEP's Eta mesoscale meteorological model and EPA's CMAQ air quality model (Davidson et al, 2004). The vision behind this system is ...

APPLICATION OF BIAS AND ADJUSTMENT TECHNIQUES TO THE ETA-CMAQ AIR QUALITY FORECAST

EPA Science Inventory

The current air quality forecast system, based on linking NOAA's Eta meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, consistently overpredicts surface ozone concentrations, but simulates its day-to-day variability quite well. The ability of bias cor...

Development and Application of Hyperspectral Infrared Ozone Retrieval Products for Operational Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2015-01-01

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive cyclogenesis and hurricane force wind events. Currently, forecasters at WPC/OPC are evaluating the Air Mass RGB imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid forecasting cyclogenesis and high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. To address this limitation, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air on the Air Mass RGB. This presentation describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB product for the unique forecast challenges WPC/OPC face. Additionally examples of CrIS ozone and anomaly products will be shown to further demonstrate the utility and capability of JPSS in forecasting unique events.

Demonstration of AIRS Total Ozone Products to Operations to Enhance User Readiness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary

2014-01-01

Cyclogenesis is a key forecast challenge at operational forecasting centers such as WPC and OPC, so these centers have a particular interest in unique products that can identify key storm features. In some cases, explosively developing extratropical cyclones can produce hurricane force, non-convective winds along the East Coast and north Atlantic as well as the Pacific Ocean, with the potential to cause significant damage to life and property. Therefore, anticipating cyclogenesis for these types of storms is crucial for furthering the NOAA goal of a "Weather Ready Nation". Over the last few years, multispectral imagery (i.e. RGB) products have gained popularity among forecasters. The GOES-R satellite champion at WPC/OPC has regularly evaluated the Air Mass RGB products from GOES Sounder, MODIS, and SEVIRI to aid in forecasting cyclogenesis as part of ongoing collaborations with SPoRT within the framework of the GOES-R Proving Ground. WPC/OPC has used these products to identify regions of stratospheric air associated with tropopause folds that can lead to cyclogenesis and hurricane force winds. RGB products combine multiple channels or channel differences into multi-color imagery in which different colors represent a particular cloud or air mass type. Initial interaction and feedback from forecasters evaluating the legacy Air Mass RGBs revealed some uncertainty regarding what physical processes the qualitative RGB products represent and color interpretation. To enhance forecaster confidence and interpretation of the Air Mass RGB, NASA SPoRT has transitioned a total column ozone product from AIRS retrievals to the WPC/OPC. The use of legacy AIRS demonstrates future JPSS capabilities possible with CrIS or OMPS. Since stratospheric air can be identified by anomalous potential vorticity and warm, dry, ozone-rich air, hyperspectral infrared sounder ozone products can be used in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB for identifying the role of stratospheric air in explosive cyclogenesis and hurricane force wind events. Currently, forecasters at WPC/OPC are evaluating the Air Mass RGB imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid forecasting cyclogenesis and high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. To address this limitation, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air on the Air Mass RGB. This presentation describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the Air Mass RGB product for the unique forecast challenges WPC/OPC face. Additionally examples of CrIS ozone and anomaly products will be shown to further demonstrate the utility and capability of JPSS in forecasting unique events.

Improving Air Quality Forecasts with AURA Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, M. J.; Biazer, A.; Khan, M.; Koshak, W. J.; Nair, U.; Fuller, K.; Wang, L.; Parker, Y.; Williams, R.; Liu, X.

2008-01-01

Past studies have identified model initial and boundary conditions as sources of reducible errors in air-quality simulations. In particular, improving the initial condition improves the accuracy of short-term forecasts as it allows for the impact of local emissions to be realized by the model and improving boundary conditions improves long range transport through the model domain, especially in recirculating anticyclones. During the August 2006 period, we use AURA/OMI ozone measurements along with MODIS and CALIPSO aerosol observations to improve the initial and boundary conditions of ozone and Particulate Matter. Assessment of the model by comparison of the control run and satellite assimilation run to the IONS06 network of ozonesonde observations, which comprise the densest ozone sounding campaign ever conducted in North America, to AURA/TES ozone profile measurements, and to the EPA ground network of ozone and PM measurements will show significant improvement in the CMAQ calculations that use AURA initial and boundary conditions. Further analyses of lightning occurrences from ground and satellite observations and AURA/OMI NO2 column abundances will identify the lightning NOx signal evident in OMI measurements and suggest pathways for incorporating the lightning and NO2 data into the CMAQ simulations.

Impact of Model Resolution and Snow Cover Modification on the Performance of Weather Forecasting and Research (WRF) Models of Winter Conditions that Contribute to Ozone Pollution in the Uintah Basin, Eastern Utah, Winter 2013. Trang T. Tran, Marc Mansfield and Seth Lyman Bingham Research Center, Utah State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, T. T.; Mansfield, M. L.; Lyman, S.

2013-12-01

The Uintah Basin of Eastern Utah, USA, has experienced winter ozone pollution events with ozone concentrations exceeding the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 75 ppb. With a total of four winter seasons of ozone sampling, winter 2013 is the worst on record for ozone pollution in the basin. Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from oil and gas industries and other activities provide the precursors for ozone formation. The chemical mechanism of ozone formation is non-linear and complicated depending on the availability of VOCs and NOx. Moreover, meteorological conditions also play an important role in triggering ozone pollution. In the Uintah Basin, high albedo due to snow cover, a 'bowl-shaped' terrain, and strong inversions that trap precursors within the boundary layer are important factors contributing to ozone pollution. However, these local meteorological phenomena have been misrepresented by recent numerical modeling studies, probably due to misrepresenting the snow cover and complex terrain of the basin. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations are performed on a model domain covering the entire Uintah Basin for winter 2013 (Dec 2012 - Mar 2013) to test the impacts of several grid resolutions (e.g., 4000, 1300 and 800m) and snow cover modification on performance of models of the local weather conditions of the basin. These sensitivity tests help to determine the best model configurations to produce appropriate meteorological input for air-quality simulations.

Nonlinear data assimilation for the regional modeling of maximum ozone values.

PubMed

Božnar, Marija Zlata; Grašič, Boštjan; Mlakar, Primož; Gradišar, Dejan; Kocijan, Juš

2017-11-01

We present a new method of data assimilation with the aim of correcting the forecast of the maximum values of ozone in regional photo-chemical models for areas over complex terrain using multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks. Up until now, these types of models have been used as a single model for one location when forecasting concentrations of air pollutants. We propose a method for constructing a more ambitious model: a single model, which can be used at several locations because the model is spatially transferable and is valid for the whole 2D domain. To achieve this goal, we introduce three novel ideas. The new method improves correlation at measurement station locations by 10% on average and improves by approximately 5% elsewhere.

Dynamic Evaluation of Two Decades of WRF-CMAQ Ozone Simulations over the Contiguous United States (2017 CMAS)

EPA Science Inventory

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)–Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model over the contiguous United States is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and...

Hourly air pollution concentrations and their important predictors over Houston, Texas using deep neural networks: case study of DISCOVER-AQ time period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eslami, E.; Choi, Y.; Roy, A.

2017-12-01

Air quality forecasting carried out by chemical transport models often show significant error. This study uses a deep-learning approach over the Houston-Galveston-Brazoria (HGB) area to overcome this forecasting challenge, for the DISCOVER-AQ period (September 2013). Two approaches, deep neural network (DNN) using a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) and Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) were utilized. The proposed approaches analyzed input data by identifying features abstracted from its previous layer using a stepwise method. The approaches predicted hourly ozone and PM in September 2013 using several predictors of prior three days, including wind fields, temperature, relative humidity, cloud fraction, precipitation along with PM, ozone, and NOx concentrations. Model-measurement comparisons for available monitoring sites reported Indexes of Agreement (IOA) of around 0.95 for both DNN and RBM. A standard artificial neural network (ANN) (IOA=0.90) with similar architecture showed poorer performance than the deep networks, clearly demonstrating the superiority of the deep approaches. Additionally, each network (both deep and standard) performed significantly better than a previous CMAQ study, which showed an IOA of less than 0.80. The most influential input variables were identified using their associated weights, which represented the sensitivity of ozone to input parameters. The results indicate deep learning approaches can achieve more accurate ozone forecasting and identify the important input variables for ozone predictions in metropolitan areas.

The Transition of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Total Ozone Products to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, E. B.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedlovec, G. J.

2014-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT) has transitioned a total column ozone product from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrievals to the Weather Prediction Center and Ocean Prediction Center. The total column ozone product is used to diagnose regions of warm, dry, ozone-rich, stratospheric air capable of descending to the surface to create high-impact non-convective winds. Over the past year, forecasters have analyzed the Red, Green, Blue (RGB) Air Mass imagery in conjunction with the AIRS total column ozone to aid high wind forecasts. One of the limitations of the total ozone product is that it is difficult for forecasters to determine whether elevated ozone concentrations are related to stratospheric air or climatologically high values of ozone in certain regions. During the summer of 2013, SPoRT created an AIRS ozone anomaly product which calculates the percent of normal ozone based on a global stratospheric ozone mean climatology. With the knowledge that ozone values 125 percent of normal and greater typically represent stratospheric air; the anomaly product can be used with the total column ozone product to confirm regions of stratospheric air. This paper describes the generation of these products along with forecaster feedback concerning the use of the AIRS ozone products in conjunction with the RGB Air Mass product to access the utility and transition of the products.

Regional Air Quality forecAST (RAQAST) Over the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, Y.; Choi, Y.; Zeng, T.; Wang, Y.

2005-12-01

A regional chemistry and transport modeling system is used to provide 48-hour forecast of the concentrations of ozone and its precursors over the United States. Meteorological forecast is conducted using the NCAR/Penn State MM5 model. The regional chemistry and transport model simulates the sources, transport, chemistry, and deposition of 24 chemical tracers. The lateral and upper boundary conditions of trace gas concentrations are specified using the monthly mean output from the global GEOS-CHEM model. The initial and boundary conditions for meteorological fields are taken from the NOAA AVN forecast. The forecast has been operational since August, 2003. Model simulations are evaluated using surface, aircraft, and satellite measurements in the A'hindcast' mode. The next step is an automated forecast evaluation system.

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Stajner, I.; Hayashi, H.; Pawson, S.; Jones, D. B. A.

2003-01-01

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Real-Time Bias-Adjusted O3 and PM2.5 Air Quality Index Forecasts and their Performance Evaluations over the Continental United States

EPA Science Inventory

The National Air Quality Forecast Capacity (NAQFC) system, which links NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, provided operational ozone (O₃) and experimental fine particular matter (PM_2...

Forecast, Measurement, and Modeling of an Unprecedented Polar Ozone Filament Event over Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripathi, Om Prakash; Leblanc, Thierry; McDermid, I. Stuart; Lefevre, Frank; Marchand, Marion; Hauchecorne, Alain

2006-01-01

In mid-March 2005 the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex experienced a severe stretching episode, bringing a large polar filament far south of Alaska toward Hawaii. This meridional intrusion of rare extent, coinciding with the polar vortex final warming and breakdown, was followed by a zonal stretching in the wake of the easterly propagating subtropical main flow. This caused polar air to remain over Hawaii for several days before diluting into the subtropics. After being successfully forecasted to pass over Hawaii by the high-resolution potential vorticity advection model Modele Isentrope du transport Meso-echelle de l'Ozone Stratospherique par Advection (MIMOSA), the filament was observed on isentropic surfaces between 415 K and 455 K (17-20 km) by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory stratospheric ozone lidar measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, between 16 and 19 March 2005. It was materialized as a thin layer of enhanced ozone peaking at 1.6 ppmv in a region where the climatological values usually average 1.0 ppmv. These values were compared to those obtained by the three dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model MIMOSA-CHIM. Agreement between lidar and model was excellent, particularly in the similar appearance of the ozone peak near 435 K (18.5 km) on 16 March, and the persistence of this layer at higher isentropic levels for the following three days. Passive ozone, also modeled by MIMOSA-CHIM, was at about 3-4 ppmv inside the filament while above Hawaii. A detailed history of the modeled chemistry inside the filament suggests that the air mass was still polar ozone- depleted when passing over Hawaii. The filament quickly separated from the main vortex after its Hawaiian overpass. It never reconnected and, in less than 10 days, dispersed entirely in the subtropics.

Exploration of OMI Products for Air Quality Applications Through Comparisons with Models and Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, K. E.; Ziemke, J.; Bucsela, E.; Gleason, J.; Marufu, L.; Dickerson, R.; Mathur, R.; Davidson, P.; Duncan, B.; Bhartia, P. K.

2006-01-01

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA s Aura satellite was launched in July 2004, and is now providing daily global observations of total column ozone, NO2, and SO2, as well as aerosol information. Algorithms have also been developed to produce daily tropospheric ozone and NO2 products. The tropospheric ozone product reported here is a tropospheric residual computed through use of Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone profile data to quantify stratospheric ozone. We are investigating the applicability of OMI products for use in air quality modeling, forecasting, and analysis. These investigations include comparison of the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 products with global and regional models and with lower tropospheric aircraft observations. Large-scale transport of pollution seen in the OM1 tropospheric O3 data is compared with output from NASA's Global Modeling Initiative global chemistry and transport model. On the regional scale we compare the OMI tropospheric O3 and NO2 with fields from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Environmental Protection Agency (NOAA/EPA) operational Eta/CMAQ air quality forecasting model over the eastern United States. This 12-km horizontal resolution model output is roughly of equivalent resolution to the OMI pixel data. Correlation analysis between lower tropospheric aircraft O3 profile data taken by the University of Maryland over the Mid-Atlantic States and OMI tropospheric column mean volume mixing ratio for O3 will be presented. These aircraft data are representative of the lowest 3 kilometers of the atmosphere, the region in which much of the locally-generated and regionally-transported ozone exists.

Impact of inherent meteorology uncertainty on air quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

It is well established that there are a number of different classifications and sources of uncertainties in environmental modeling systems. Air quality models rely on two key inputs, namely, meteorology and emissions. When using air quality models for decision making, it is important to understand how uncertainties in these inputs affect the simulated concentrations. Ensembles are one method to explore how uncertainty in meteorology affects air pollution concentrations. Most studies explore this uncertainty by running different meteorological models or the same model with different physics options and in some cases combinations of different meteorological and air quality models. While these have been shown to be useful techniques in some cases, we present a technique that leverages the initial condition perturbations of a weather forecast ensemble, namely, the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system to drive the four-dimensional data assimilation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with a key focus being the response of ozone chemistry and transport. Results confirm that a sizable spread in WRF solutions, including common weather variables of temperature, wind, boundary layer depth, clouds, and radiation, can cause a relatively large range of ozone-mixing ratios. Pollutant transport can be altered by hundreds of kilometers over several days. Ozone-mixing ratios of the ensemble can vary as much as 10–20 ppb

Impact of meteorological data resolution on the forecasted ozone concentrations during the ESCOMPTE IOP2a and IOP2b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Coll, Isabelle; Cautenet, Sylvie

2005-03-01

During the summer 2001, several photo-oxidant pollution episodes were documented around Marseilles-Fos-Berre in the South of France within the framework of the ESCOMPTE campaign. The site is composed of large cities (Marseilles, Aix, and Toulon), significant factories (Fos-Berre), a dense road network, and extensive rural area. Both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions are thus significative. Located close to the Mediterranean Sea and framed by the Pyrenees and the Alps Mountains, pollutant concentrations are under the influence of strong emissions as well as a complex meteorology. During the whole summer 2001, the chemistry-transport model CHIMERE was used to forecast pollutant concentrations. The ECMWF forecast meteorological fields were used as forcing, with a raw spatial and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h, respectively. It was observed that even if the synoptic dynamic processes were correctly described, the resolution was not always able to detail small-scale dynamics (sea breezes and orographical winds). To estimate the impact of meteorological forcing on the modeled concentration accuracy, an intercomparison exercise has thus been carried out on the same episode but with two sets of meteorological data: ECMWF data (with horizontal and temporal resolution of 0.5° and 3 h) and data from the mesoscale model RAMS (3 km and 1 h). The two sets of meteorological data are compared and discussed in terms of raw differences as a function of time and location, and in terms of induced discrepancies between the modeled and observed ozone concentration fields. It was shown that even if the RAMS model provides a better description of land-sea breezes and nocturnal boundary layer processes, the simulated ozone time series are satisfactory with the two meteorological forcings. In the context of ozone forecast, the scores are better with ECMWF. This is attributed to the diffusive aspect of these data that will more easily catch localized peaks, while a small error in wind speed or direction in RAMS will misplace the ozone plume.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to ...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess...

Developing a predictive tropospheric ozone model for Tabriz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatibi, Rahman; Naghipour, Leila; Ghorbani, Mohammad A.; Smith, Michael S.; Karimi, Vahid; Farhoudi, Reza; Delafrouz, Hadi; Arvanaghi, Hadi

2013-04-01

Predictive ozone models are becoming indispensable tools by providing a capability for pollution alerts to serve people who are vulnerable to the risks. We have developed a tropospheric ozone prediction capability for Tabriz, Iran, by using the following five modeling strategies: three regression-type methods: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Gene Expression Programming (GEP); and two auto-regression-type models: Nonlinear Local Prediction (NLP) to implement chaos theory and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The regression-type modeling strategies explain the data in terms of: temperature, solar radiation, dew point temperature, and wind speed, by regressing present ozone values to their past values. The ozone time series are available at various time intervals, including hourly intervals, from August 2010 to March 2011. The results for MLR, ANN and GEP models are not overly good but those produced by NLP and ARIMA are promising for the establishing a forecasting capability.

An Evaluation of Real-time Air Quality Forecasts and their Urban Emissions over Eastern Texas During the Summer of 2006 Second Texas Air Quality Study Field Study

EPA Science Inventory

Forecasts of ozone (O₃) and particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 µm, PM_2.5) from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected during August and September of 2006 (49 days) through the AIRNow netwo...

Improving emissions inventories in North America through systematic analysis of model performance during ICARTT and MILAGRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mena, Marcelo Andres

During 2004 and 2006 the University of Iowa provided air quality forecast support for flight planning of the ICARTT and MILAGRO field campaigns. A method for improvement of model performance in comparison to observations is showed. The method allows identifying sources of model error from boundary conditions and emissions inventories. Simultaneous analysis of horizontal interpolation of model error and error covariance showed that error in ozone modeling is highly correlated to the error of its precursors, and that there is geographical correlation also. During ICARTT ozone modeling error was improved by updating from the National Emissions Inventory from 1999 and 2001, and furthermore by updating large point source emissions from continuous monitoring data. Further improvements were achieved by reducing area emissions of NOx y 60% for states in the Southeast United States. Ozone error was highly correlated to NOy error during this campaign. Also ozone production in the United States was most sensitive to NOx emissions. During MILAGRO model performance in terms of correlation coefficients was higher, but model error in ozone modeling was high due overestimation of NOx and VOC emissions in Mexico City during forecasting. Large model improvements were shown by decreasing NOx emissions in Mexico City by 50% and VOC by 60%. Recurring ozone error is spatially correlated to CO and NOy error. Sensitivity studies show that Mexico City aerosol can reduce regional photolysis rates by 40% and ozone formation by 5-10%. Mexico City emissions can enhance NOy and O3 concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico in up to 10-20%. Mexico City emissions can convert regional ozone production regimes from VOC to NOx limited. A method of interpolation of observations along flight tracks is shown, which can be used to infer on the direction of outflow plumes. The use of ratios such as O3/NOy and NOx/NOy can be used to provide information on chemical characteristics of the plume, such as age, and ozone production regime. Interpolated MTBE observations can be used as a tracer of urban mobile source emissions. Finally procedures for estimating and gridding emissions inventories in Brazil and Mexico are presented.

Vegetation Exposure to Ozone over the Continental United States: Assessment of Exposure Indices by the Eta-CMAQ Air Quality Forecast Model

EPA Science Inventory

This study presents the first evaluation of the performance of the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model to predict a variety of widely used seasonal mean and cumulative O₃ exposure indices associated with vegetation using the U.S. AIRNow O₃ observations.

A STUDY OF PROCESS CONTRIBUTIONS TO OZONE FORMATION DURING THE 2004 ICARTT PERIOD USING THE ETA-CMAQ FORECAST MODEL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

First, this study evaluates the Eta-CMAQ forecast model performances for O₃, and related chemical species with the observational data from the aircraft (NOAA P-3 and NASA DC-8) flights, Lidar and ozonesonde during the 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Resea...

A STUDY OF PROCESS CONTRIBUTIONS TO OZONE FORMATION DURING THE 2004 ICARTT PERIOD USING THE ETA- CMAQ FORECAST MODEL OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

EPA Science Inventory

First, this study evaluates the Eta-CMAQ forecast model performances for O₃, and related chemical species with the observational data from the aircraft (NOAA P-3 and NASA DC-8) flights, Lidar and ozonesonde during the 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Resea...

DAILY SIMULATION OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATES OVER NEW YORK STATE: FINDINGS AND CHALLENGES

EPA Science Inventory

This study investigates the potential utility of the application of a photochemical modeling system in providing simultaneous forecasts of ozone (O₃) and fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) over New York State. To this end, daily simulations from the Community M...

AQA - Air Quality model for Austria - Evaluation and Developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirtl, M.; Krüger, B. C.; Baumann-Stanzer, K.; Skomorowski, P.

2009-04-01

The regional weather forecast model ALADIN of the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) is used in combination with the chemical transport model CAMx (www.camx.com) to conduct forecasts of gaseous and particulate air pollution over Europe. The forecasts which are done in cooperation with the University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences in Vienna (BOKU) are supported by the regional governments since 2005 with the main interest on the prediction of tropospheric ozone. The daily ozone forecasts are evaluated for the summer 2008 with the observations of about 150 air quality stations in Austria. In 2008 the emission-model SMOKE was integrated into the modelling system to calculate the biogenic emissions. The anthropogenic emissions are based on the newest EMEP data set as well as on regional inventories for the core domain. The performance of SMOKE is shown for a summer period in 2007. In the frame of the COST-action 728 „Enhancing mesoscale meteorological modelling capabilities for air pollution and dispersion applications", multi-model ensembles are used to conduct an international model evaluation. The model calculations of meteorological- and concentration fields are compared to measurements on the ensemble platform at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra. The results for 2 episodes in 2006 show the performance of the different models as well as of the model ensemble.

Assimilation of MLS and OMI Ozone Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, I.; Wargan, K.; Chang, L.-P.; Hayashi, H.; Pawson, S.; Froidevaux, L.; Livesey, N.

2005-01-01

Ozone data from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) were assimilated into the ozone model at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This assimilation produces ozone fields that are superior to those from the operational GMAO assimilation of Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV/2) instrument data. Assimilation of Aura data improves the representation of the "ozone hole" and the agreement with independent Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III and ozone sonde data. Ozone in the lower stratosphere is captured better: mean state, vertical gradients, spatial and temporal variability are all improved. Inclusion of OMI and MLS data together, or separately, in the assimilation system provides a way of checking how consistent OMI and MLS data are with each other, and with the ozone model. We found that differences between OMI total ozone column data and model forecasts decrease after MLS data are assimilated. This indicates that MLS stratospheric ozone profiles are consistent with OMI total ozone columns. The evaluation of error characteristics of OMI and MLS ozone will continue as data from newer versions of retrievals becomes available. We report on the initial step in obtaining global assimilated ozone fields that combine measurements from different Aura instruments, the ozone model at the GMAO, and their respective error characteristics. We plan to use assimilated ozone fields in estimation of tropospheric ozone. We also plan to investigate impacts of assimilated ozone fields on numerical weather prediction through their use in radiative models and in the assimilation of infrared nadir radiance data from NASA's Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS).

Flexible NO(x) abatement from power plants in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Sun, Lin; Webster, Mort; McGaughey, Gary; McDonald-Buller, Elena C; Thompson, Tammy; Prinn, Ronald; Ellerman, A Denny; Allen, David T

2012-05-15

Emission controls that provide incentives for maximizing reductions in emissions of ozone precursors on days when ozone concentrations are highest have the potential to be cost-effective ozone management strategies. Conventional prescriptive emissions controls or cap-and-trade programs consider all emissions similarly regardless of when they occur, despite the fact that contributions to ozone formation may vary. In contrast, a time-differentiated approach targets emissions reductions on forecasted high ozone days without imposition of additional costs on lower ozone days. This work examines simulations of such dynamic air quality management strategies for NO(x) emissions from electric generating units. Results from a model of day-specific NO(x) pricing applied to the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) portion of the northeastern U.S. electrical grid demonstrate (i) that sufficient flexibility in electricity generation is available to allow power production to be switched from high to low NO(x) emitting facilities, (ii) that the emission price required to induce EGUs to change their strategies for power generation are competitive with other control costs, (iii) that dispatching strategies, which can change the spatial and temporal distribution of emissions, lead to ozone concentration reductions comparable to other control technologies, and (iv) that air quality forecasting is sufficiently accurate to allow EGUs to adapt their power generation strategies.

Performance assessment of retrospective meteorological inputs for use in air quality modeling during TexAQS 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngan, Fong; Byun, Daewon; Kim, Hyuncheol; Lee, Daegyun; Rappenglück, Bernhard; Pour-Biazar, Arastoo

2012-07-01

To achieve more accurate meteorological inputs than was used in the daily forecast for studying the TexAQS 2006 air quality, retrospective simulations were conducted using objective analysis and 3D/surface analysis nudging with surface and upper observations. Model ozone using the assimilated meteorological fields with improved wind fields shows better agreement with the observation compared to the forecasting results. In the post-frontal conditions, important factors for ozone modeling in terms of wind patterns are the weak easterlies in the morning for bringing in industrial emissions to the city and the subsequent clockwise turning of the wind direction induced by the Coriolis force superimposing the sea breeze, which keeps pollutants in the urban area. Objective analysis and nudging employed in the retrospective simulation minimize the wind bias but are not able to compensate for the general flow pattern biases inherited from large scale inputs. By using an alternative analyses data for initializing the meteorological simulation, the model can re-produce the flow pattern and generate the ozone peak location closer to the reality. The inaccurate simulation of precipitation and cloudiness cause over-prediction of ozone occasionally. Since there are limitations in the meteorological model to simulate precipitation and cloudiness in the fine scale domain (less than 4-km grid), the satellite-based cloud is an alternative way to provide necessary inputs for the retrospective study of air quality.

Forecast, measurement, and modeling of an unprecedented polar ozone filament event over Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripathi, Om Prakash; Leblanc, Thierry; McDermid, I. Stuart; LefèVre, Frank; Marchand, Marion; Hauchecorne, Alain

2006-10-01

In mid-March 2005 the northern lower stratospheric polar vortex experienced a severe stretching episode, bringing a large polar filament far south of Alaska toward Hawaii. This meridional intrusion of rare extent, coinciding with the polar vortex final warming and breakdown, was followed by a zonal stretching in the wake of the easterly propagating subtropical main flow. This caused polar air to remain over Hawaii for several days before diluting into the subtropics. After being successfully forecasted to pass over Hawaii by the high-resolution potential vorticity advection model Modèle Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection (MIMOSA), the filament was observed on isentropic surfaces between 415 K and 455 K (17-20 km) by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory stratospheric ozone lidar measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, between 16 and 19 March 2005. It was materialized as a thin layer of enhanced ozone peaking at 1.6 ppmv in a region where the climatological values usually average 1.0 ppmv. These values were compared to those obtained by the three-dimensional Chemistry-Transport Model MIMOSA-CHIM. Agreement between lidar and model was excellent, particularly in the similar appearance of the ozone peak near 435 K (18.5 km) on 16 March, and the persistence of this layer at higher isentropic levels for the following three days. Passive ozone, also modeled by MIMOSA-CHIM, was at about 3-4 ppmv inside the filament while above Hawaii. A detailed history of the modeled chemistry inside the filament suggests that the air mass was still polar ozone-depleted when passing over Hawaii. The filament quickly separated from the main vortex after its Hawaiian overpass. It never reconnected and, in less than 10 days, dispersed entirely in the subtropics.

Vertical Profiling of Air Pollution at RAPCD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, Michael J.; Fuller, Kirk A.; Bowdle, David A.; Johnson, Steven; Knupp, Kevin; Gillani, Noor; Biazar, Arastoo; Mcnider, Richard T.; Burris, John

2004-01-01

The interaction between local and regional pollution levels occurs at the interface of the Planetary Boundary Layer and the Free Troposphere. Measuring the vertical distribution of ozone, aerosols, and winds with high temporal and vertical resolution is essential to diagnose the nature of this interchange and ultimately for accurately forecasting ozone and aerosol pollution levels. The Regional Atmospheric Profiling Center for Discovery, RAPCD, was built and instrumented to address this critical issue. The ozone W DIAL lidar, Nd:YAG aerosol lidar, and 2.1 micron Doppler wind lidar, along with balloon- borne ECC ozonesondes form the core of the W C D instrumentation for addressing this problem. Instrumentation in the associated Mobile Integrated Profiling (MIPS) laboratory includes 91 5Mhz profiler, sodar, and ceilometer. The collocated Applied particle Optics and Radiometry (ApOR) laboratory hosts an FTIR along with MOUDI and optical particle counters. With MODELS-3 analysis by colleagues in the National Space Science and Technology Center on the UAH campus and the co- located National Weather Service Forecasting Office in Huntsville, AL we are developing a unique facility for advancing the state of the science of pollution forecasting.

75 FR 69036 - Notice of Data Availability Regarding Potential Changes to Required Ozone Monitoring Seasons for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-10

... is specifically considering how these more recent data could impact changes to the current and... reporting to the public, ozone forecasting programs, and the verification of real-time air quality forecast...

A statistical model for forecasting hourly ozone levels during fire season

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Shiyuan (Sharon) Zhong; Annie Esperanza; Leland Tarnay; Julide Kahyaoglu-Koracin

2009-01-01

Concerns about smoke from large high-intensity and managed low intensity fires have been increasing during the past decade. Because smoke from large high-intensity fires are known to contain and generate secondary fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone precursors, the effect of fires on air quality in the southern Sierra Nevada is a serious management...

Forecasting ozone concentrations in the east of Croatia using nonparametric Neural Network Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovač-Andrić, Elvira; Sheta, Alaa; Faris, Hossam; Gajdošik, Martina Šrajer

2016-07-01

Ozone is one of the most significant secondary pollutants with numerous negative effects on human health and environment including plants and vegetation. Therefore, more effort is made recently by governments and associations to predict ozone concentrations which could help in establishing better plans and regulation for environment protection. In this study, we use two Artificial Neural Network based approaches (MPL and RBF) to develop, for the first time, accurate ozone prediction models, one for urban and another one for rural area in the eastern part of Croatia. The evaluation of actual against the predicted ozone concentrations revealed that MLP and RBF models are very competitive for the training and testing data in the case of Kopački Rit area whereas in the case of Osijek city, MLP shows better evaluation results with 9% improvement in the correlation coefficient. Furthermore, subsequent feature selection process has improved the prediction power of RBF network.

The behaviour of PM10 and ozone in Malaysia through non-linear dynamical systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sapini, Muhamad Luqman; Rahim, Nurul Zahirah binti Abd; Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md.

Prediction of ozone (O3) and PM10 is very important as both these air pollutants affect human health, human activities and more. Short-term forecasting of air quality is needed as preventive measures and effective action can be taken. Therefore, if it is detected that the ozone data is of a chaotic dynamical systems, a model using the nonlinear dynamic from chaos theory data can be made and thus forecasts for the short term would be more accurate. This study uses two methods, namely the 0-1 Test and Lyapunov Exponent. In addition, the effect of noise reduction on the analysis of timemore » series data will be seen by using two smoothing methods: Rectangular methods and Triangle methods. At the end of the study, recommendations were made to get better results in the future.« less

NASA satellite helps airliners avoid ozone concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Results from a test to determine the effectiveness of satellite data for helping airlines avoid heavy concentrations of ozone are reported. Information from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, aboard the Nimbus-7 was transmitted, for use in meteorological forecast activities. The results show: (1) Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer profile of total ozone in the atmosphere accurately represents upper air patterns and can be used to locate meteorological activity; (2) route forecasting of highly concentrated ozone is feasible; (3) five research aircraft flights were flown in jet stream regions located by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer to determine winds, temperatures, and air composition. It is shown that the jet stream is coincides with the area of highest total ozone gradient, and low total ozone amounts are found where tropospheric air has been carried along above the tropopause on the anticyclonic side of the subtropical jet stream.

Uncertainty characterization and quantification in air pollution models. Application to the CHIMERE model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debry, Edouard; Mallet, Vivien; Garaud, Damien; Malherbe, Laure; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Rouïl, Laurence

2010-05-01

Prev'Air is the French operational system for air pollution forecasting. It is developed and maintained by INERIS with financial support from the French Ministry for Environment. On a daily basis it delivers forecasts up to three days ahead for ozone, nitrogene dioxide and particles over France and Europe. Maps of concentration peaks and daily averages are freely available to the general public. More accurate data can be provided to customers and modelers. Prev'Air forecasts are based on the Chemical Transport Model CHIMERE. French authorities rely more and more on this platform to alert the general public in case of high pollution events and to assess the efficiency of regulation measures when such events occur. For example the road speed limit may be reduced in given areas when the ozone level exceeds one regulatory threshold. These operational applications require INERIS to assess the quality of its forecasts and to sensitize end users about the confidence level. Indeed concentrations always remain an approximation of the true concentrations because of the high uncertainty on input data, such as meteorological fields and emissions, because of incomplete or inaccurate representation of physical processes, and because of efficiencies in numerical integration [1]. We would like to present in this communication the uncertainty analysis of the CHIMERE model led in the framework of an INERIS research project aiming, on the one hand, to assess the uncertainty of several deterministic models and, on the other hand, to propose relevant indicators describing air quality forecast and their uncertainty. There exist several methods to assess the uncertainty of one model. Under given assumptions the model may be differentiated into an adjoint model which directly provides the concentrations sensitivity to given parameters. But so far Monte Carlo methods seem to be the most widely and oftenly used [2,3] as they are relatively easy to implement. In this framework one probability density function (PDF) is associated with an input parameter, according to its assumed uncertainty. Then the combined PDFs are propagated into the model, by means of several simulations with randomly perturbed input parameters. One may then obtain an approximation of the PDF of modeled concentrations, provided the Monte Carlo process has reasonably converged. The uncertainty analysis with CHIMERE has been led with a Monte Carlo method on the French domain and on two periods : 13 days during January 2009, with a focus on particles, and 28 days during August 2009, with a focus on ozone. The results show that for the summer period and 500 simulations, the time and space averaged standard deviation for ozone is 16 µg/m3, to be compared with an averaged concentration of 89 µg/m3. It is noteworthy that the space averaged standard deviation for ozone is relatively constant over time (the standard deviation of the timeseries itself is 1.6 µg/m3). The space variation of the ozone standard deviation seems to indicate that emissions have a significant impact, followed by western boundary conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are then post-processed by both ensemble [4] and Bayesian [5] methods in order to assess the quality of the uncertainty estimation. (1) Rao, K.S. Uncertainty Analysis in Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2005, 162, 1893-1917. (2) Beekmann, M. and Derognat, C. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of a regional-scale transport chemistry model constrained by measurements from the Atmospheric Pollution Over the Paris Area (ESQUIF) campaign, Journal of Geophysical Research, 2003, 108, 8559-8576. (3) Hanna, S.R. and Lu, Z. and Frey, H.C. and Wheeler, N. and Vukovich, J. and Arunachalam, S. and Fernau, M. and Hansen, D.A. Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain, Atmospheric Environment, 2001, 35, 891-903. (4) Mallet, V., and B. Sportisse (2006), Uncertainty in a chemistry-transport model due to physical parameterizations and numerical approximations: An ensemble approach applied to ozone modeling, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D01302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006149. (5) Romanowicz, R. and Higson, H. and Teasdale, I. Bayesian uncertainty estimation methodology applied to air pollution modelling, Environmetrics, 2000, 11, 351-371.

Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawa, S.R.; Douglass, A. R.; Patrick, L. C.; Allen, D. R.; Randall, C. E.

2004-01-01

The unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.

Ozone Contamination in Aircraft Cabins. Appendix B: Overview papers. Flight 8 planning to avoid high ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belmont, A. D.

1979-01-01

The problem of preventing cabin ozone from exceeding a given standard was investigated. Statistical analysis of vertical distribution of ozone is summarized. The cost, logistics, maintenance, ability to forecast ozone, and avoiding high ozone concentrations are presented. Filtering approaches and the requirements to remove ozone toxicity are discussed.

Diagnostic Analysis of Ozone Concentrations Simulated by Two Regional-Scale Air Quality Models

EPA Science Inventory

Since the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) and the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF/Chem) use different approaches to simulate the interaction of meteorology and chemistry, this study compares the CMAQ and WRF/Chem air quality simu...

Comparison of Flow-Dependent and Static Error Correlation Models in the DAO Ozone Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Stajner, I.; Pawson, S.

2003-01-01

In a data assimilation system the forecast error covariance matrix governs the way in which the data information is spread throughout the model grid. Implementation of a correct method of assigning covariances is expected to have an impact on the analysis results. The simplest models assume that correlations are constant in time and isotropic or nearly isotropic. In such models the analysis depends on the dynamics only through assumed error standard deviations. In applications to atmospheric tracer data assimilation this may lead to inaccuracies, especially in regions with strong wind shears or high gradient of potential vorticity, as well as in areas where no data are available. In order to overcome this problem we have developed a flow-dependent covariance model that is based on short term evolution of error correlations. The presentation compares performance of a static and a flow-dependent model applied to a global three- dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA s Data Assimilation Office. We will present some results of validation against WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres and in the troposphere. We will also discuss statistical characteristics of both models; in particular we will argue that including evolution of error correlations leads to stronger internal consistency of a data assimilation ,

Seasonal Characteristics of Widespread Ozone Pollution in China and India: Current Model Capabilities and Source Attributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, M.; Song, S.; Beig, G.; Zhang, H.; Hu, J.; Ying, Q.; McElroy, M. B.

2017-12-01

Fast urbanization and industrialization in China and India have led to severe ozone pollution, threatening public health in these densely populated countries. We show the spatial and seasonal characteristics of ozone concentrations using nation-wide observations for these two countries in 2013. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct one-year simulations and to evaluate how current models capture the important photochemical processes using the exhaustive available datasets in China and India, including surface measurements, ozonesonde data and satellite retrievals. We also employed the factor separation approach to distinguish the contributions of different sectors to ozone during different seasons. The back trajectory model FLEXPART was applied to investigate the role of transport in highly polluted regions (e.g., North China Plain, Yangtze River delta, and Pearl River Delta) during different seasons. Preliminary results indicate that the WRF-Chem model provides a satisfactory representation of the temporal and spatial variations of ozone for both China and India. The factor separation approach offers valuable insights into relevant sources of ozone for both countries providing valuable guidance for policy options designed to mitigate the related problem.

Intercomparison of planetary boundary layer parameterization and its impacts on surface ozone concentration in the WRF/Chem model for a case study in Houston/Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuchiara, G. C.; Li, X.; Carvalho, J.; Rappenglück, B.

2014-10-01

With over 6 million inhabitants the Houston metropolitan area is the fourth-largest in the United States. Ozone concentration in this southeast Texas region frequently exceeds the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). For this reason our study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) to quantify meteorological prediction differences produced by four widely used PBL schemes and analyzed its impact on ozone predictions. The model results were compared to observational data in order to identify one superior PBL scheme better suited for the area. The four PBL schemes include two first-order closure schemes, the Yonsei University (YSU) and the Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2); as well as two turbulent kinetic energy closure schemes, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE). Four 24 h forecasts were performed, one for each PBL scheme. Simulated vertical profiles for temperature, potential temperature, relative humidity, water vapor mixing ratio, and the u-v components of the wind were compared to measurements collected during the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS-II) Radical and Aerosol Measurements Project (TRAMP) experiment in summer 2006. Simulated ozone was compared against TRAMP data, and air quality stations from Continuous Monitoring Station (CAMS). Also, the evolutions of the PBL height and vertical mixing properties within the PBL for the four simulations were explored. Although the results yielded high correlation coefficients and small biases in almost all meteorological variables, the overall results did not indicate any preferred PBL scheme for the Houston case. However, for ozone prediction the YSU scheme showed greatest agreements with observed values.

Intercomparison of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization and its Impacts on Surface Ozone Concentration in the WRF/Chem Model for a Case Study in Houston/Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuchiara, Gustavo C.; Li, Xiangshang; Carvalho, Jonas; Rappenglück, Bernhard

2015-04-01

With over 6 million inhabitants the Houston metropolitan area is the fourth-largest in the United States. Ozone concentration in this southeast Texas region frequently exceeds the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). For this reason our study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) to quantify meteorological prediction differences produced by four widely used PBL schemes and analyzed its impact on ozone predictions. The model results were compared to observational data in order to identify one superior PBL scheme better suited for the area. The four PBL schemes include two first-order closure schemes, the Yonsei University (YSU) and the Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2); as well as two turbulent kinetic energy closure schemes, the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE). Four 24 h forecasts were performed, one for each PBL scheme. Simulated vertical profiles for temperature, potential temperature, relative humidity, water vapor mixing ratio, and the u-v components of the wind were compared to measurements collected during the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS-II) Radical and Aerosol Measurements Project (TRAMP) experiment in summer 2006. Simulated ozone was compared against TRAMP data, and air quality stations from Continuous Monitoring Station (CAMS). Also, the evolutions of the PBL height and vertical mixing properties within the PBL for the four simulations were explored. Although the results yielded high correlation coefficients and small biases in almost all meteorological variables, the overall results did not indicate any preferred PBL scheme for the Houston case. However, for ozone prediction the YSU scheme showed greatest agreements with observed values.

Applications of Satellite Remote Sensing Products to Enhance and Evaluate the AIRPACT Regional Air Quality Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herron-Thorpe, F. L.; Mount, G. H.; Emmons, L. K.; Lamb, B. K.; Jaffe, D. A.; Wigder, N. L.; Chung, S. H.; Zhang, R.; Woelfle, M.; Vaughan, J. K.; Leung, F. T.

2013-12-01

The WSU AIRPACT air quality modeling system for the Pacific Northwest forecasts hourly levels of aerosols and atmospheric trace gases for use in determining potential health and ecosystem impacts by air quality managers. AIRPACT uses the WRF/SMOKE/CMAQ modeling framework, derives dynamic boundary conditions from MOZART-4 forecast simulations with assimilated MOPITT CO, and uses the BlueSky framework to derive fire emissions. A suite of surface measurements and satellite-based remote sensing data products across the AIRPACT domain are used to evaluate and improve model performance. Specific investigations include anthropogenic emissions, wildfire simulations, and the effects of long-range transport on surface ozone. In this work we synthesize results for multiple comparisons of AIRPACT with satellite products such as IASI ammonia, AIRS carbon monoxide, MODIS AOD, OMI tropospheric ozone and nitrogen dioxide, and MISR plume height. Features and benefits of the newest version of AIRPACT's web-interface are also presented.

Operational use of the AIRS Total Column Ozone Retrievals along with the RGB Airmass Product as Part of the GOES-R Proving Ground

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folmer, M.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

The Red, Green, Blue (RGB) Air Mass product has been demonstrated in the GOES ]R Proving Ground as a possible decision aid. Forecasters have been trained on the usefulness of identifying stratospheric intrusions and potential vorticity (PV) anomalies that can lead to explosive cyclogenesis, genesis of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), or the transition of tropical cyclones to extratropical cyclones. It has also been demonstrated to distinguish different air mass types from warm, low ozone air masses to cool, high ozone air masses and the various interactions with the PV anomalies. To assist the forecasters in understanding the stratospheric contribution to high impact weather systems, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Total Column Ozone Retrievals have been made available as an operational tool. These AIRS retrievals provide additional information on the amount of ozone that is associated with the red coloring seen in the RGB Air Mass product. This paper discusses how the AIRS retrievals can be used to quantify the red coloring in RGB Air Mass product. These retrievals can be used to diagnose the depth of the stratospheric intrusions associated with different types of weather systems and provide the forecasters decision aid tools that can improve the quality of forecast products.

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental United States: New approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and determining confidence limits for ozone exceedances

EPA Science Inventory

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be ...

7-year of surface ozone in a coastal city of central Italy: Observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biancofiore, Fabio; Verdecchia, Marco; Di Carlo, Piero; Tomassetti, Barbara; Aruffo, Eleonora; Busilacchio, Marcella; Bianco, Sebastiano; Di Tommaso, Sinibaldo; Colangeli, Carlo

2014-05-01

Hourly concentrations of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) have been measured for seven years, from 1998 to 2005, in a seaside town in the central Italy. Seasonal trends of O3 and NO2 recorded in the considered years are studied. Furthermore, we have focused our attention on data collected during the 2005, analyzing them using two different methods: a regression model and a neural network model. Both models are used to simulate the hourly ozone concentration, using several sets of input. In order to evaluate the performance of the model four statistical criteria are used: correlation coefficient (R), fractional bias (FB), normalized mean squared error (NMSE) e factor of two (FA2). All the criteria show that the neural network has better results compared to the regression model in all the simulations. In addiction we have tested some improvements of the neural network model, results of these tests are discussed. Finally, we have used the neural network to forecast the ozone hourly concentrations a day ahead and 1, 3, 6, 12 hour ahead. Performances of the model in predicting ozone levels are discussed.

Study of Ozone Layer Variability near St. Petersburg on the Basis of SBUV Satellite Measurements and Numerical Simulation (2000-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virolainen, Y. A.; Timofeyev, Y. M.; Smyshlyaev, S. P.; Motsakov, M. A.; Kirner, O.

2017-12-01

A comparison between the numerical simulation results of ozone fields with different experimental data makes it possible to estimate the quality of models for their further use in reliable forecasts of ozone layer evolution. We analyze time series of satellite (SBUV) measurements of the total ozone column (TOC) and the ozone partial columns in two atmospheric layers (0-25 and 25-60 km) and compare them with the results of numerical simulation in the chemistry transport model (CTM) for the low and middle atmosphere and the chemistry climate model EMAC. The daily and monthly average ozone values, short-term periods of ozone depletion, and long-term trends of ozone columns are considered; all data sets relate to St. Petersburg and the period between 2000 and 2014. The statistical parameters (means, standard deviations, variations, medians, asymmetry parameter, etc.) of the ozone time series are quite similar for all datasets. However, the EMAC model systematically underestimates the ozone columns in all layers considered. The corresponding differences between satellite measurements and EMAC numerical simulations are (5 ± 5)% and (7 ± 7)% and (1 ± 4)% for the ozone column in the 0-25 and 25-60 km layers, respectively. The correspondent differences between SBUV measurements and CTM results amount to (0 ± 7)%, (1 ± 9)%, and (-2 ± 8)%. Both models describe the sudden episodes of the ozone minimum well, but the EMAC accuracy is much higher than that of the CTM, which often underestimates the ozone minima. Assessments of the long-term linear trends show that they are close to zero for all datasets for the period under study.

Chemical transport model ozone simulations for spring 2001 over the western Pacific: Comparisons with TRACE-P lidar, ozonesondes, and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer columns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Oliver; Sundet, Jostein K.; Prather, Michael J.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Akimoto, Hajime; Browell, Edward V.; Oltmans, Samuel J.

2003-11-01

Two closely related chemical transport models (CTMs) employing the same high-resolution meteorological data (˜180 km × ˜180 km × ˜600 m) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are used to simulate the ozone total column and tropospheric distribution over the western Pacific region that was explored by the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) measurement campaign in February-April 2001. We make extensive comparisons with ozone measurements from the lidar instrument on the NASA DC-8, with ozonesondes taken during the period around the Pacific Rim, and with TOMS total column ozone. These demonstrate that within the uncertainties of the meteorological data and the constraints of model resolution, the two CTMs (FRSGC/UCI and Oslo CTM2) can simulate the observed tropospheric ozone and do particularly well when realistic stratospheric ozone photochemistry is included. The greatest differences between the models and observations occur in the polluted boundary layer, where problems related to the simplified chemical mechanism and inadequate horizontal resolution are likely to have caused the net overestimation of about 10 ppb mole fraction. In the upper troposphere, the large variability driven by stratospheric intrusions makes agreement very sensitive to the timing of meteorological features.

[Application of artificial neural networks on the prediction of surface ozone concentrations].

PubMed

Shen, Lu-Lu; Wang, Yu-Xuan; Duan, Lei

2011-08-01

Ozone is an important secondary air pollutant in the lower atmosphere. In order to predict the hourly maximum ozone one day in advance based on the meteorological variables for the Wanqingsha site in Guangzhou, Guangdong province, a neural network model (Multi-Layer Perceptron) and a multiple linear regression model were used and compared. Model inputs are meteorological parameters (wind speed, wind direction, air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and solar radiation) of the next day and hourly maximum ozone concentration of the previous day. The OBS (optimal brain surgeon) was adopted to prune the neutral work, to reduce its complexity and to improve its generalization ability. We find that the pruned neural network has the capacity to predict the peak ozone, with an agreement index of 92.3%, the root mean square error of 0.0428 mg/m3, the R-square of 0.737 and the success index of threshold exceedance 77.0% (the threshold O3 mixing ratio of 0.20 mg/m3). When the neural classifier was added to the neural network model, the success index of threshold exceedance increased to 83.6%. Through comparison of the performance indices between the multiple linear regression model and the neural network model, we conclud that that neural network is a better choice to predict peak ozone from meteorological forecast, which may be applied to practical prediction of ozone concentration.

Real Time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krotkov, Nickolay A.; Habib, Shahid; da Silva, Arlindo; Hughes, Eric; Yang, Kai; Brentzel, Kelvin; Seftor, Colin; Li, Jason Y.; Schneider, David; Guffanti, Marianne;

Investigating the Impact on Modeled Ozone Concentrations Using Meteorological Fields From WRF With and Updated Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Approach”

EPA Science Inventory

The four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) technique in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model has recently undergone an important update from the original version. Previous evaluation results have demonstrated that the updated FDDA approach in WRF pr...

Comment on "Simulation of Surface Ozone Pollution in the Central Gulf Coast Region Using WRF/Chem Model: Sensitivity to PBL and Land Surface Physics"

EPA Science Inventory

A recently published meteorology and air quality modeling study has several serious deficiencies deserving comment. The study uses the weather research and forecasting/chemistry (WRF/Chem) model to compare and evaluate boundary layer and land surface modeling options. The most se...

A Global Ozone Climatology from Ozone Soundings via Trajectory Mapping: A Stratospheric Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, J. J.; Tarasick, D. W.; Fioletov, V. E.; McLinden, C.; Zhao, T.; Gong, S.; Sioris, G.; Jin, J. J.; Liu, G.; Moeini, O.

2013-01-01

This study explores a domain-filling trajectory approach to generate a global ozone climatology from sparse ozonesonde data. Global ozone soundings of 51,898 profiles at 116 stations over 44 years (1965-2008) are used, from which forward and backward trajectories are performed for 4 days, driven by a set of meteorological reanalysis data. Ozone mixing ratios of each sounding from the surface to 26 km altitude are assigned to the entire path along the trajectory. The resulting global ozone climatology is archived monthly for five decades from the 1960s to the 2000s with grids of 5 degree 5 degree 1 km (latitude, longitude, and altitude). It is also archived yearly from 1965 to 2008. This climatology is validated at 20 ozonesonde stations by comparing the actual ozone sounding profile with that found through the trajectories, using the ozone soundings at all the stations except one being tested. The two sets of profiles are in good agreement, both individually with correlation coefficients between 0.975 and 0.998 and root mean square (RMS) differences of 87 to 482 ppbv, and overall with a correlation coefficient of 0.991 and an RMS of 224 ppbv. The ozone climatology is also compared with two sets of satellite data, from the Satellite Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and the Optical Spectrography and InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS). Overall, the ozone climatology compares well with SAGE and OSIRIS data by both seasonal and zonal means. The mean difference is generally under 20 above 15 km. The comparison is better in the northern hemisphere, where there are more ozonesonde stations, than in the southern hemisphere; it is also better in the middle and high latitudes than in the tropics, where assimilated winds are imperfect in some regions. This ozone climatology can capture known features in the stratosphere, as well as seasonal and decadal variations of these features. Furthermore, it provides a wealth of detail about longitudinal variations in the stratosphere such as the spring ozone maximum over the Canadian Arctic. It also covers higher latitudes than current satellite data. The climatology shows clearly the depletion of ozone from the 1970s to the mid 1990s and ozone recovery in the 2000s. When this climatology is used as the upper boundary condition in an Environment Canada operational chemical forecast model, the forecast is improved in the vicinity of the upper tropospherelower stratosphere region. As this ozone climatology is neither dependent on a priori data or photochemical modeling, it provides independent information and insight that can supplement satellite data and model simulations and enhance our understanding of stratospheric ozone.

Co-Mitigation of Ozone and PM2.5 Pollution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Xiang, S.; Yi, K.; Tao, W.

2017-12-01

With the rapid industrialization and urbanization, emissions of air pollutants in China were increasing rapidly during the past few decades, causing severe particulate matter and ozone pollution in many megacities. Facing these knotty environmental problems, China has released a series of pollution control policies to mitigate air pollution emissions and optimize energy supplement structure. Consequently, fine particulate matters (PM2.5) decrease recently. However, the concentrations of ambient ozone have been increasing, especially during summer time and over megacities. In this study, we focus on the opposite trends of ozone and PM2.5 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) to simulate and analyze the best emission reduction strategies, and adopt the Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach (EKMA) to depict the influences of mitigating NOx and VOCs. We also incorporate the abatement costs for NOx and VOCs in our analysis to explore the most cost-effective mitigation strategies for both ozone and PM2.5.

A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marécal, V.; Peuch, V.-H.; Andersson, C.; Andersson, S.; Arteta, J.; Beekmann, M.; Benedictow, A.; Bergström, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Cansado, A.; Chéroux, F.; Colette, A.; Coman, A.; Curier, R. L.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Drouin, A.; Elbern, H.; Emili, E.; Engelen, R. J.; Eskes, H. J.; Foret, G.; Friese, E.; Gauss, M.; Giannaros, C.; Guth, J.; Joly, M.; Jaumouillé, E.; Josse, B.; Kadygrov, N.; Kaiser, J. W.; Krajsek, K.; Kuenen, J.; Kumar, U.; Liora, N.; Lopez, E.; Malherbe, L.; Martinez, I.; Melas, D.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Moinat, P.; Morales, T.; Parmentier, J.; Piacentini, A.; Plu, M.; Poupkou, A.; Queguiner, S.; Robertson, L.; Rouïl, L.; Schaap, M.; Segers, A.; Sofiev, M.; Thomas, M.; Timmermans, R.; Valdebenito, Á.; van Velthoven, P.; van Versendaal, R.; Vira, J.; Ung, A.

2015-03-01

This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014). This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs and PAN + PAN precursors) over 8 vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performances of the system are assessed daily, weekly and 3 monthly (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the median ensemble to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The time period of this case study is also used to illustrate that the median ensemble generally outperforms each of the individual models and that it is still robust even if two of the seven models are missing. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10 and show an overall improvement over time. The change of the skills of the ensemble over the past two summers for ozone and the past two winters for PM10 are discussed in the paper. While the evolution of the ozone scores is not significant, there are improvements of PM10 over the past two winters that can be at least partly attributed to new developments on aerosols in the seven individual models. Nevertheless, the year to year changes in the models and ensemble skills are also linked to the variability of the meteorological conditions and of the set of observations used to calculate the statistical indicators. In parallel, a scientific analysis of the results of the seven models and of the ensemble is also done over the Mediterranean area because of the specificity of its meteorology and emissions. The system is robust in terms of the production availability. Major efforts have been done in MACC-II towards the operationalisation of all its components. Foreseen developments and research for improving its performances are discussed in the conclusion.

On an improvement of UV index forecast: UV index diagnosis and forecast for Belsk, Poland, in Spring/Summer 1999

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzyścin, J. W.; Jaroslawski, J.; Sobolewski, P.

2001-10-01

A forecast of the UV index for the following day is presented. The standard approach to the UV index modelling is applied, i.e., the clear-sky UV index is multiplied by the UV cloud transmission factor. The input to the clear-sky model (tropospheric ultraviolet and visible-TUV model, Madronich, in: M. Tevini (Ed.), Environmental Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation, Lewis Publisher, Boca Raton, /1993, p. 17) consists of the total ozone forecast (by a regression model using the observed and forecasted meteorological variables taken as the initial values of aviation (AVN) global model and their 24-hour forecasts, respectively) and aerosols optical depth (AOD) forecast (assumed persistence). The cloud transmission factor forecast is inferred from the 24-h AVN model run for the total (Sun/+sky) solar irradiance at noon. The model is validated comparing the UV index forecasts with the observed values, which are derived from the daily pattern of the UV erythemal irradiance taken at Belsk (52°N,21°E), Poland, by means of the UV Biometer Solar model 501A for the period May-September 1999. Eighty-one percent and 92% of all forecasts fall into /+/-1 and /+/-2 index unit range, respectively. Underestimation of UV index occurs only in 15%. Thus, the model gives a high security in Sun protection for the public. It is found that in /~35% of all cases a more accurate forecast of AOD is needed to estimate the daily maximum of clear-sky irradiance with the error not exceeding 5%. The assumption of the persistence of the cloud characteristics appears as an alternative to the 24-h forecast of the cloud transmission factor in the case when the AVN prognoses are not available.

WRF-Chem simulated surface ozone over south Asia during the pre-monsoon: effects of emission inventories and chemical mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Amit; Ojha, Narendra; Pozzer, Andrea; Mar, Kathleen A.; Beig, Gufran; Lelieveld, Jos; Gunthe, Sachin S.

2017-12-01

We evaluate numerical simulations of surface ozone mixing ratios over the south Asian region during the pre-monsoon season, employing three different emission inventories in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with the second-generation Regional Acid Deposition Model (RADM2) chemical mechanism: the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research - Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (EDGAR-HTAP), the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment phase B (INTEX-B) and the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS). Evaluation of diurnal variability in modelled ozone compared to observational data from 15 monitoring stations across south Asia shows the model ability to reproduce the clean, rural and polluted urban conditions over this region. In contrast to the diurnal average, the modelled ozone mixing ratios during noontime, i.e. hours of intense photochemistry (11:30-16:30 IST - Indian Standard Time - UTC +5:30), are found to differ among the three inventories. This suggests that evaluations of the modelled ozone limited to 24 h average are insufficient to assess uncertainties associated with ozone buildup. HTAP generally shows 10-30 ppbv higher noontime ozone mixing ratios than SEAC4RS and INTEX-B, especially over the north-west Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), central India and southern India. The HTAP simulation repeated with the alternative Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) chemical mechanism showed even more strongly enhanced surface ozone mixing ratios due to vertical mixing of enhanced ozone that has been produced aloft. Our study indicates the need to also evaluate the O3 precursors across a network of stations and the development of high-resolution regional inventories for the anthropogenic emissions over south Asia accounting for year-to-year changes to further reduce uncertainties in modelled ozone over this region.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May–September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990–2000), the simulated and observed trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000–2010 period, all trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed trend in most regions. Given large n

Simultaneous assimilation of ozone profiles from multiple UV-VIS satellite instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Peet, Jacob C. A.; van der A, Ronald J.; Kelder, Hennie M.; Levelt, Pieternel F.

2018-02-01

A three-dimensional global ozone distribution has been derived from assimilation of ozone profiles that were observed by satellites. By simultaneous assimilation of ozone profiles retrieved from the nadir looking satellite instruments Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), which measure the atmosphere at different times of the day, the quality of the derived atmospheric ozone field has been improved. The assimilation is using an extended Kalman filter in which chemical transport model TM5 has been used for the forecast. The combined assimilation of both GOME-2 and OMI improves upon the assimilation results of a single sensor. The new assimilation system has been demonstrated by processing 4 years of data from 2008 to 2011. Validation of the assimilation output by comparison with sondes shows that biases vary between -5 and +10 % between the surface and 100 hPa. The biases for the combined assimilation vary between -3 and +3 % in the region between 100 and 10 hPa where GOME-2 and OMI are most sensitive. This is a strong improvement compared to direct retrievals of ozone profiles from satellite observations.

A REVIEW OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE

EPA Science Inventory

A variety of statistical methods for meteorological adjustment of ozone have been proposed in the literature over the last decade for purposes of forecasting, estimating ozone time trends, or investigating underlying mechanisms from an empirical perspective. The methods can be...

Towards uncertainty estimates in global operational forecasts of trace gases in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huijnen, V.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S. H.; Christophe, Y.; Thierno, D.; Karydis, V.; Marecal, V.; Pozzer, A.; Flemming, J.

2017-12-01

Operational atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts such as developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) rely on modules describing emissions, chemical conversion, transport and removal processing, as well as data assimilation methods. The CAMS forecasts can be used to drive regional air quality models across the world. Critical analyses of uncertainties in any of these processes are continuously needed to advance the quality of such systems on a global scale, ranging from the surface up to the stratosphere. With regard to the atmospheric chemistry to describe the fate of trace gases, the operational system currently relies on a modified version of the CB05 chemistry scheme for the troposphere combined with the Cariolle scheme to describe stratospheric ozone, as integrated in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It is further constrained by assimilation of satellite observations of CO, O3 and NO2. As part of CAMS we have recently developed three fully independent schemes to describe the chemical conversion throughout the atmosphere. These parameterizations originate from parent model codes in MOZART, MOCAGE and a combination of TM5/BASCOE. In this contribution we evaluate the correspondence and elemental differences in the performance of the three schemes in an otherwise identical model configuration (excluding data-assimilation) against a large range of in-situ and satellite-based observations of ozone, CO, VOC's and chlorine-containing trace gases for both troposphere and stratosphere. This analysis aims to provide a measure of model uncertainty in the operational system for tracers that are not, or poorly, constrained by data assimilation. It aims also to provide guidance on the directions for further model improvement with regard to the chemical conversion module.

A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorology and air quality modeling system—WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecast model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model). The photosynthesis-based model for PX LSM (PX PSN) is evaluated at a FLUXNET site for implementation against different parameterizations and the current PX LSM approach with a simple Jarvis function (PX Jarvis). Latent heat flux (LH) from PX PSN is further evaluated at five FLUXNET sites with different vegetation types and landscape characteristics. Simulated ozone deposition and flux from PX PSN are evaluated at one of the sites with ozone flux measurements. Overall, the PX PSN simulates LH as well as the PX Jarvis approach. The PX PSN, however, shows distinct advantages over the PX Jarvis approach for grassland that likely result from its treatment of C3 and C4 plants for CO2 assimilation. Simulations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) rather than LAI measured at each site assess how the model would perform with grid averaged data used in WRF/CMAQ. MODIS LAI estimates degrade model performance at all sites but one site having exceptionally old and tall trees. Ozone deposition velocity and ozone flux along with LH

Improving emissions inventories in Mexico through systematic analysis of model performance along C-130 and DC-8 flight tracks during MILAGRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mena-Carrasco, M.; Carmichael, G. R.; Campbell, J. E.; Tang, Y.; Chai, T.

2007-05-01

During the MILAGRO campaign in March 2006 the University of Iowa provided regional air quality forecasting for scientific flight planning for the C-130 and DC-8. Model performance showed positive bias of ozone prediction (~15ppbv), associated to overpredictions in precursor concentrations (~2.15 ppbv NOy and ~1ppmv ARO1). Model bias showed a distinct geographical pattern in which the higher values were in and near Mexico City. Newer runs in which NOx and VOC emissions were decreased improved ozone prediction, decreasing bias and increasing model correlation, at the same time reducing regional bias over Mexico. This work will evaluate model performance using the newly published Mexico National Emissions Inventory, and the introduction of data assimilation to recover emissions scaling factors to optimize model performance. Finally the results of sensitivity runs showing the regional impact of Mexico City emissions on ozone concentrations will be shown, along with the influence of Mexico City aerosol concentrations on regional photochemistry.

Improved hurricane forecasting from a variational bogus and ozone data assimilation (BODA) scheme: case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yin; Zhang, Wei

2016-12-01

This study develops a proper way to incorporate Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) ozone data into the bogus data assimilation (BDA) initialization scheme for improving hurricane prediction. First, the observation operator at some model levels with the highest correlation coefficients is established to assimilate AIRS ozone data based on the correlation between total column ozone and potential vorticity (PV) ranging from 400 to 50 hPa level. Second, AIRS ozone data act as an augmentation to a BDA procedure using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. Case studies of several hurricanes are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the bogus and ozone data assimilation (BODA) scheme. The statistical result indicates that assimilating AIRS ozone data at 4, 5, or 6 model levels can produce a significant improvement in hurricane track and intensity prediction, with reasonable computation time for the hurricane initialization. Moreover, a detailed analysis of how BODA scheme affects hurricane prediction is conducted for Hurricane Earl (2010). It is found that the new scheme developed in this study generates significant adjustments in the initial conditions (ICs) from the lower levels to the upper levels, compared with the BDA scheme. With the BODA scheme, hurricane development is found to be much more sensitive to the number of ozone data assimilation levels. In particular, the experiment with the assimilation of AIRS ozone data at proper number of model levels shows great capabilities in reproducing the intensity and intensity changes of Hurricane Earl, as well as improve the track prediction. These results suggest that AIRS ozone data convey valuable meteorological information in the upper troposphere, which can be assimilated into a numerical model to improve hurricane initialization when the low-level bogus data are included.

Forecast errors in dust vertical distributions over Rome (Italy): Multiple particle size representation and cloud contributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.; Kallos, G.; Katsafados, P.; Spyrou, C.; Gobbi, G. P.; Barnaba, F.; Nickovic, S.; PéRez, C.; Baldasano, J. M.

2007-08-01

In this study, forecast errors in dust vertical distributions were analyzed. This was carried out by using quantitative comparisons between dust vertical profiles retrieved from lidar measurements over Rome, Italy, performed from 2001 to 2003, and those predicted by models. Three models were used: the four-particle-size Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM), the older one-particle-size version of the SKIRON model from the University of Athens (UOA), and the pre-2006 one-particle-size Tel Aviv University (TAU) model. SKIRON and DREAM are initialized on a daily basis using the dust concentration from the previous forecast cycle, while the TAU model initialization is based on the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI). The quantitative comparison shows that (1) the use of four-particle-size bins in the dust modeling instead of only one-particle-size bins improves dust forecasts; (2) cloud presence could contribute to noticeable dust forecast errors in SKIRON and DREAM; and (3) as far as the TAU model is concerned, its forecast errors were mainly caused by technical problems with TOMS measurements from the Earth Probe satellite. As a result, dust forecast errors in the TAU model could be significant even under cloudless conditions. The DREAM versus lidar quantitative comparisons at different altitudes show that the model predictions are more accurate in the middle part of dust layers than in the top and bottom parts of dust layers.

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Christoph A.; Knowland, K. Emma; Nielsen, Jon E.; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Follette-Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua;

A REVIEW OF STATISTICAL METHODS FOR THE METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE. (R825173)

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract

A variety of statistical methods for meteorological adjustment of ozone have been proposed in the literature over the last decade for purposes of forecasting, estimating ozone time trends, or investigating underlying mechanisms from an empirical perspective. T...

Is the residual vertical velocity a good proxy for stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hsu, Juno; Prather, Michael J.

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone (O 3) is key in the budget of tropospheric O 3, in turn affecting climate forcing and global air quality. We compare three commonly used diagnostics meant to quantify cross-tropopause O 3 fluxes with a Chemistry-Transport Model driven by two distinct European Centre forecast fields. Here, our reference case calculates accurate, geographically resolved net transport across an isosurface in artificial tracer e90 representing the tropopause. Hemispheric fluxes derived from the ozone mass budget of the lowermost stratosphere yield similar results. Use of the Brewer-Dobson residual vertical velocity as a scaled proxy for ozone flux, however,more » fails to capture the interannual variability. Thus, the common notion that the strength of stratospheric overturning circulation is a good measure for global STE does not apply to O 3. Finally, climatic variability in the modeled O 3 flux needs to be diagnosed directly rather than indirectly through the overturning circulation.« less

Is the residual vertical velocity a good proxy for stratosphere-troposphere exchange of ozone?

DOE PAGES

Hsu, Juno; Prather, Michael J.

2014-12-20

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone (O 3) is key in the budget of tropospheric O 3, in turn affecting climate forcing and global air quality. We compare three commonly used diagnostics meant to quantify cross-tropopause O 3 fluxes with a Chemistry-Transport Model driven by two distinct European Centre forecast fields. Here, our reference case calculates accurate, geographically resolved net transport across an isosurface in artificial tracer e90 representing the tropopause. Hemispheric fluxes derived from the ozone mass budget of the lowermost stratosphere yield similar results. Use of the Brewer-Dobson residual vertical velocity as a scaled proxy for ozone flux, however,more » fails to capture the interannual variability. Thus, the common notion that the strength of stratospheric overturning circulation is a good measure for global STE does not apply to O 3. Finally, climatic variability in the modeled O 3 flux needs to be diagnosed directly rather than indirectly through the overturning circulation.« less

Multiple linear regression and regression with time series error models in forecasting PM10 concentrations in Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Ng, Kar Yong; Awang, Norhashidah

2018-01-06

Frequent haze occurrences in Malaysia have made the management of PM 10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic less than 10 μm) pollution a critical task. This requires knowledge on factors associating with PM 10 variation and good forecast of PM 10 concentrations. Hence, this paper demonstrates the prediction of 1-day-ahead daily average PM 10 concentrations based on predictor variables including meteorological parameters and gaseous pollutants. Three different models were built. They were multiple linear regression (MLR) model with lagged predictor variables (MLR1), MLR model with lagged predictor variables and PM 10 concentrations (MLR2) and regression with time series error (RTSE) model. The findings revealed that humidity, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, carbon monoxide and ozone were the main factors explaining the PM 10 variation in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison among the three models showed that MLR2 model was on a same level with RTSE model in terms of forecasting accuracy, while MLR1 model was the worst.

Effects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles on ozone concentrations in Colorado.

PubMed

Brinkman, Gregory L; Denholm, Paul; Hannigan, Michael P; Milford, Jana B

2010-08-15

This study explores how ozone concentrations in the Denver, CO area might have been different if plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) had replaced light duty gasoline vehicles in summer 2006. A unit commitment and dispatch model was used to estimate the charging patterns of PHEVs and dispatch power plants to meet electricity demand. Emission changes were estimated based on gasoline displacement and the emission characteristics of the power plants providing additional electricity. The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) was used to simulate the effects of these emissions changes on ozone concentrations. Natural gas units provided most of the electricity used for charging PHEVs in the scenarios considered. With 100% PHEV penetration, nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions were reduced by 27 tons per day (tpd) from a fleet of 1.7 million vehicles and were increased by 3 tpd from power plants; VOC emissions were reduced by 57 tpd. These emission changes reduced modeled peak 8-h average ozone concentrations by approximately 2-3 ppb on most days. Ozone concentration increases were modeled for small areas near central Denver. Future research is needed to forecast when significant PHEV penetration may occur and to anticipate characteristics of the corresponding power plant and vehicle fleets.

Multiple Sensitivity Testing for Regional Air Quality Model in summer 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Lee, P.; Pan, L.; Tong, D.; Kim, H. C.; Huang, M.; Wang, J.; McQueen, J.; Lu, C. H.; Artz, R. S.

2015-12-01

The NOAA Air Resources laboratory leads to improve the performance of the U.S. Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). It is operational in NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) which focuses on predicting surface ozone and PM2.5. In order to improve its performance, we tested several approaches, including NOAA Environmental Modeling System Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) simulation derived ozone and aerosol lateral boundary conditions (LBC), bi-direction NH3 emission and HMS(Hazard Mapping System)-BlueSky emission with the latest U.S. EPA Community Multi-scale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version and the U.S EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI)-2011 anthropogenic emissions. The operational NAQFC uses static profiles for its lateral boundary condition (LBC), which does not impose severe issue for near-surface air quality prediction. However, its degraded performance for the upper layer (e.g. above 3km) is evident when comparing with aircraft measured ozone. NCEP's Global Forecast System (GFS) has tracer O3 prediction treated as 3-D prognostic variable (Moorthi and Iredell, 1998) after being initialized with Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet-2 (SBUV-2) satellite data. We applied that ozone LBC to the CMAQ's upper layers and yield more reasonable O3 prediction than that with static LBC comparing with the aircraft data in Discover-AQ Colorado campaign. NGAC's aerosol LBC also improved the PM2.5 prediction with more realistic background aerosols. The bi-direction NH3 emission used in CMAQ also help reduce the NH3 and nitrate under-prediction issue. During summer 2014, strong wildfires occurred in northwestern USA, and we used the US Forest Service's BlueSky fire emission with HMS fire counts to drive CMAQ and tested the difference of day-1 and day-2 fire emission estimation. Other related issues were also discussed.

Comparative Evaluation of the Impact of WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW Meteorology on CMAQ Simulations for O3 and Related Species During the 2006 TexAQS/GoMACCS Campaign

EPA Science Inventory

In this paper, impact of meteorology derived from the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Non–hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) and WRF–Advanced Research WRF (ARW) meteorological models on the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulations for ozone and its related prec...

The Impact of the Assimilation of Hyperspectral Infrared Retrieved Profiles on Advanced Weather and Research Model Simulations of a Non-Convective Wind Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brendt. Emily; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Elmer, Nicholas

2014-01-01

Tropopause folds are identified by warm, dry, high-potential vorticity, ozone-rich air and are one explanation for damaging non-convective wind events. Could improved model representation of stratospheric air and associated tropopause folding improve non-convective wind forecasts and high wind warnings? The goal of this study is to assess the impact of assimilating Hyperspectral Infrared (IR) profiles on forecasting stratospheric air, tropopause folds, and associated non-convective winds: (1) AIRS: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (2) IASI: Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (3) CrIMSS: Cross-track Infrared and Microwave Sounding Suite

The Aura Mission and Its Application to Climate and Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilsenrath, Ernest; Schoeberl, Mark; Douglass, Anne

2003-01-01

NASA's Aura satellite is scheduled to launch in the second quarter of 2004 into a polar orbit. The Aura mission is designed to collect data to address three high priority environmental science questions: (1) Is the ozone layer recovering as expected? (2) What are the sources and processes that control tropospheric pollutants? And (3) what is the quantitative impact of constituents on climate change? Aura will answer these questions by globally measuring a comprehensive set of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere and stratosphere. Aura data will also have applications for monitoring and predicting climate and air quality parameters. Aura s observations will continue the TOMS ozone trend record and provide an assessment as to whether the Montreal Protocol is achieving its objective. Aura will measure gases and aerosols in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that contribute to climate forcing. These data will be of sufficient coverage, vertical resolution, and accuracy to help constrain climate models. In addition, Aura observations of tropospheric ozone and its precursors will have regional as well as intercontinental coverage, which could improve emission inventories. Near real time data will tested for local air quality forecasts in collaboration with the US's Environmental Protection UV-B forecasts from Aura ozone and cloud cover data. An overview of Aura s instruments, data products, validation, and examples of data applications will be presented.

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowland, E. Emma; Keller, Christoph; Nielsen, J. Eric; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua;

A Global Aerosol Model Forecast for the ACE-Asia Field Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Ginoux, Paul; Lucchesi, Robert; Huebert, Barry; Weber, Rodney; Anderson, Tad; Masonis, Sarah; Blomquist, Byron; Bandy, Alan; Thornton, Donald

2003-01-01

We present the results of aerosol forecast during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) field experiment in spring 2001, using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and the meteorological forecast fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The aerosol model forecast provides direct information on aerosol optical thickness and concentrations, enabling effective flight planning, while feedbacks from measurements constantly evaluate the model, making successful model improvements. We verify the model forecast skill by comparing model predicted total aerosol extinction, dust, sulfate, and SO2 concentrations with those quantities measured by the C-130 aircraft during the ACE-Asia intensive operation period. The GEOS DAS meteorological forecast system shows excellent skills in predicting winds, relative humidity, and temperature for the ACE-Asia experiment area as well as for each individual flight, with skill scores usually above 0.7. The model is also skillful in forecast of pollution aerosols, with most scores above 0.5. The model correctly predicted the dust outbreak events and their trans-Pacific transport, but it constantly missed the high dust concentrations observed in the boundary layer. We attribute this missing dust source to the desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia Province in China, which have developed in recent years but were not included in the model during forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed high dust concentrations at low altitudes over the Yellow Sea. Two key elements for a successful aerosol model forecast are correct source locations that determine where the emissions take place, and realistic forecast winds and convection that determine where the aerosols are transported. We demonstrate that our global model can not only account for the large-scale intercontinental transport, but also produce the small-scale spatial and temporal variations that are adequate for aircraft measurements planning.

The numerical modeling the sensitivity of coastal wind and ozone concentration to different SST forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Jeon, Won-Bae; Lee, Soon-Hwan

2012-01-01

This study evaluated an atmospheric and air quality model of the spatial variability in low-level coastal winds and ozone concentration, which are affected by sea surface temperature (SST) forcing with different thermal gradients. Several numerical experiments examined the effect of sea surface SST forcing on the coastal atmosphere and air quality. In this study, the RAMS-CAMx model was used to estimate the sensitivity to two different resolutions of SST forcing during the episode day as well as to simulate the low-level coastal winds and ozone concentration over a complex coastal area. The regional model reproduced the qualitative effect of SST forcing and thermal gradients on the coastal flow. The high-resolution SST derived from NGSST-O (New Generation Sea Surface Temperature Open Ocean) forcing to resolve the warm SST appeared to enhance the mean response of low-level winds to coastal regions. These wind variations have important implications for coastal air quality. A higher ozone concentration was forecasted when SST data with a high resolution was used with the appropriate limitation of temperature, regional wind circulation, vertical mixing height and nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) near coastal areas.

Application of the WRF-Chem model for the simulation of air quality over Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushta, Jonilda; Proestos, Yiannis; Georgiou, George; Christoudias, Theodoros; Lelieveld, Jos

2017-04-01

The fully coupled WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) model is used to simulate air quality over Cyprus. Cyprus is an island country with complex topography, located in the eastern corner of East Mediterranean region, affected year-long by local, regional and long range transported pollution. An extensive sensitivity analysis of the model performance has been performed over the area of interest with three domains of respective grid spacing of 40, 8 and 2 km. Different configurations have been deployed regarding horizontal resolution, simulation timestep, boundary conditions, NOx emissions and speciation method of emitted NMVOCs (Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds). The WRF-Chem model simulated hourly concentrations of air pollutants for a month-long period (July 2014) during which measurements are available over 13 stations (4 of which background stations, 1 industrial and 8 urban/traffic stations). The model was initialized with meteorological initial and boundary conditions (ICBC) using NCAR-NCEP's F Global Forecast System output (GFS) at a 1o x1o spatial resolution. The ICBC for the chemical species are derived from the MOZART global model results (2.5o x 2.5o). Both ICBCs datasets are updated every 6 hours. The emission inventory used in the study is the EDGAR-HTAP v2 dataset with a horizontal grid resolution of 0.1o × 0.1o, while an additional dataset with speciated NMVOCs (instead of summed volatile species) is also tested. The diurnal cycle of the atmospheric concentrations of ozone averaged over the island, exhibits a maximum of 114 μg/m3 when the boundary conditions are derived from MOZART and 94 μg/m3 when the boundary conditions are not included (local background and production), suggesting a constant inflow of ozone from long range transport of about 20 μg/m3. The contribution of pollution from regional sources is more pronounced at the western border due to the characteristic summer time north-northeasterly etesian flow that brings southward the pollution produced or accumulated over Eastern Europe, the Black sea and major upwind megacities (Istanbul, Athens etc). Ozone concentrations are overestimated in all stations indicating a possible overestimation of ozone from the global model (MOZART) that has also been discussed in other studies over neighbouring countries, or an excess of ozone production in the parent domain that includes all Eastern Mediterranean. Model results are influenced by the speciation of NMVOCs with the pre-speciated emission dataset resulting in lower ozone values by an average of 5 μg/m3. Lowering NOx emission brings ozone levels closer to observations; however this does not account for the overestimation of ozone since the respective comparison of NOx levels reveals strong underestimation of NOx (both NO and NO2) even before reducing them. Horizontal, vertical and temporal resolutions show smaller impact on changing the modelled patterns of ozone concentrations. The discrepancies between modelled and observed ozone over the main Cypriot urban areas point at the need for more detailed emission inventories, either in terms of spatial resolution and/or validation of absolute emitted values, and adjustments in the use of boundary conditions from global models.

Ozone - Current Air Quality Index

MedlinePlus

GO! Local Air Quality Conditions Zip Code: State : My Current Location Current AQI Forecast AQI Loop More Maps AQI: Good (0 - 50) ... resources for Hawaii residents and visitors more announcements Air Quality Basics Air Quality Index | Ozone | Particle Pollution | Smoke ...

A Study of the Ozone Formation by Ensemble Back Trajectory-process Analysis Using the Eta-CMAQ Forecast Model over the Northeastern U.S. During the 2004 ICARTT Period

EPA Science Inventory

The integrated process rates (IPR) estimated by the Eta-CMAQ model at grid cells along the trajectory of the air mass transport path were analyzed to quantitatively investigate the relative importance of physical and chemical processes for O₃ formation and evolution ov...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astitha, Marina; Luo, Huiying; Rao, S. Trivikrama; Hogrefe, Christian; Mathur, Rohit; Kumar, Naresh

2017-09-01

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May-September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990-2000), the simulated and observed regional average trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000-2010 period, all observed trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed downward trend in the Southwest and Midwest but under-predicts the downward trends in observations for the other regions. Observational analysis reveals that it is the magnitude of the long-term forcing that dictates the maximum ozone exceedance potential; there is a strong linear relationship between the long-term forcing and the 4th highest or the average of the top10 ozone concentrations in both observations and model output. This finding indicates that improving the model's ability to reproduce the long-term component will also enable better simulation of ozone extreme values that are of interest to regulatory agencies.

A photosynthesis-based two-leaf canopy stomatal conductance model for meteorology and air quality modeling with WRF/CMAQ PX LSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Limei; Pleim, Jonathan; Song, Conghe; Band, Larry; Walker, John T.; Binkowski, Francis S.

2017-02-01

A coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model with single-layer sunlit and shaded leaf canopy scaling is implemented and evaluated in a diagnostic box model with the Pleim-Xiu land surface model (PX LSM) and ozone deposition model components taken directly from the meteorology and air quality modeling system - WRF/CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecast model and Community Multiscale Air Quality model). The photosynthesis-based model for PX LSM (PX PSN) is evaluated at a FLUXNET site for implementation against different parameterizations and the current PX LSM approach with a simple Jarvis function (PX Jarvis). Latent heat flux (LH) from PX PSN is further evaluated at five FLUXNET sites with different vegetation types and landscape characteristics. Simulated ozone deposition and flux from PX PSN are evaluated at one of the sites with ozone flux measurements. Overall, the PX PSN simulates LH as well as the PX Jarvis approach. The PX PSN, however, shows distinct advantages over the PX Jarvis approach for grassland that likely result from its treatment of C3 and C4 plants for CO2 assimilation. Simulations using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) rather than LAI measured at each site assess how the model would perform with grid averaged data used in WRF/CMAQ. MODIS LAI estimates degrade model performance at all sites but one site having exceptionally old and tall trees. Ozone deposition velocity and ozone flux along with LH are simulated especially well by the PX PSN compared to significant overestimation by the PX Jarvis for a grassland site.

Operational air quality forecast guidance for the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Lee, Pius; Tong, Daniel; Pan, Li; McQueen, Jeff; Huang, Jinaping; Djalalova, Irina; Wilczak, James; Huang, Ho-Chun; Wang, Jun; Stein, Ariel; Upadhayay, Sikchya

2016-04-01

NOAA provides operational air quality predictions for ozone and wildfire smoke over the United States (U.S.) and predictions of airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. These predictions are produced using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Model for Air Quality (CMAQ) and NOAA's HYSPLIT model (Stein et al., 2015) with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The current efforts focus on improving test predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from CMAQ. Emission inputs for ozone and PM2.5 predictions include inventory information from the U.S. EPA and recently added contributions of particulate matter from intermittent wildfires and windblown dust that rely on near real-time information. Current testing includes refinement of the vertical grid structure in CMAQ and inclusion of contributions of dust transport from global sources into the U.S. domain using the NEMS Global Aerosol Capability (NGAC). The addition of wildfire smoke and dust contributions in CMAQ reduced model underestimation of PM2.5 in summertime. Wintertime overestimation of PM2.5 was reduced by suppressing emissions of soil particles when the terrain is covered by snow or ice. Nevertheless, seasonal biases and biases in the diurnal cycle of PM2.5 are still substantial. Therefore, a new bias correction procedure based on an analog ensemble approach was introduced (Djalalova et al., 2015). It virtually eliminates biases in monthly means or in the diurnal cycle, but it also reduces day-to-day variability in PM2.5 predictions. Refinements to the bias correction procedure are being developed. Upgrades for the representation of wildfire smoke emissions within the domain and from global sources are in testing. Another area of active development includes approaches to scale emission inventories for nitrogen oxides in order to reproduce recent changes observed by the AirNow surface monitoring network and by satellite instruments (Tong et al., 2015) and to use these updated emissions to improve ozone predictions (Pan et al., 2015). An overview of the impacts of these recent and ongoing efforts to improve predictions of ozone, smoke and PM2.5 will be presented. Djalalova, I. et al., 2015: PM2.5 analog forecast and Kalman filter post-processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.05.057. Pan L. et al., 2014: Assessment of NOx and O3 forecasting performances in the U.S. National Air Quality Forecasting Capability before and after the 2012 major emissions updates. Atmospheric Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.06.020. Stein, A. et al., 2015: NOAA's HYSPLIT atmospheric transport and dispersion modeling system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00110.1. Tong, D.Q. et al., 2015: Long-term NOx trends over large cities in the United States during the great recession: Comparison of satellite retrievals, ground observations, and emission inventories. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2015.01.035.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogrefe, Christian; Liu, Peng; Pouliot, George; Mathur, Rohit; Roselle, Shawn; Flemming, Johannes; Lin, Meiyun; Park, Rokjin J.

2018-03-01

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated surface ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.

Predicatbility of windstorm Klaus; sensitivity to PV perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbogast, P.; Maynard, K.

2010-09-01

It appears that some short-range weather forecast failures may be attributed to initial conditions errors. In some cases it is possible to anticipate the behavior of the model by comparison between observations and model analyses. In the case of extratropical cyclone development one may qualify the representation of the upper-level precursors described in terms of PV in the initial conditions by comparison with either satellite ozone or water-vapor. A step forward has been made in developing a tool based upon manual modifications of dynamical tropopause (i.e. height of 1.5 PV units) and PV inversion. After five years of experimentations it turns out that the forecasters eventually succeed in improving the forecast of some strong cyclone development. However the present approach is subjective per se. To measure the subjectivity of the procedure a set of 15 experiments has been performed provided by 7 different people (senior forecasters and scientists involved in dynamical meteorology) in order to improve an initial state of the global model ARPEGE leading to a poor forecast of the wind storm Klaus (24 January 2009). This experiment reveals that the manually defined corrections present common features but also a large spread.

The Impact of Emission and Climate Change on Ozone in the United States under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Drake, John B.

Dynamical downscaling was applied in this study to link the global climate-chemistry model Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-Chem) with the regional models: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ). Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to evaluate the climate impact on ozone concentrations in 2050s. Ozone concentrations in the lower-mid troposphere (surface to ~300 hPa), from mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), show decreasing trends in RCP 4.5 between 2000s and 2050s, with the largest decrease of 4-10 ppbv occurring in the summer and the fall;more » and increasing trends (2-12 ppbv) in RCP 8.5 resulting from the increased methane emissions. In RCP 8.5, methane emissions increase by ~60% by the end of 2050s, accounting for more than 90% of ozone increases in summer and fall, and 60-80% in spring and winter. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the summer when photochemical reactions are the most active, the large ozone precursor emissions reduction leads to the greatest decrease of downscaled surface ozone concentrations, ranging from 6 to 10 ppbv. However, a few major cities show ozone increases of 3 to 7 ppbv due to weakened NO titration. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, in winter, downscaled ozone concentrations increase across nearly the entire continental US in winter, ranging from 3 to 10 ppbv due to increased methane emissions and enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). More intense heat waves are projected to occur by the end of 2050s in RCP 8.5, leading to more than 8 ppbv of the maximum daily 8-hour daily average (MDA8) ozone during the heat wave days than other days; this indicates the dramatic impact heat waves exert on high frequency ozone events.« less

Radiative effects due to North American anthropogenic and lightning emissions: Global and regional modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martini, Matus Novak

We analyze the contribution of North American (NA) lightning and anthropogenic emissions to summertime ozone concentrations, radiative forcing, and exports from North America using the global University of Maryland chemistry transport model (UMD-CTM) and the regional scale Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Lightning NO contributes by 15--20 ppbv to upper tropospheric ozone concentrations over the United States with the effects of NA lightning on ozone seen as far east as North Africa and Europe. Using the UMD-CTM, we compare changes in surface and column ozone amounts due to the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call with the natural variability in ozone due to changes in meteorology and lightning. Comparing early summer 2004 with 2002, surface ozone decreased by up to 5 ppbv due to the NO x SIP Call while changes in meteorology and lightning resulted in a 0.3--1.4 ppbv increase in surface ozone. Ozone column variability was driven primarily by changes in lightning NO emissions, especially over the North Atlantic. As part of our WRF-Chem analysis, we modify the radiation schemes to use model-calculated ozone (interactive ozone) instead of climatological ozone profiles and conduct multiple 4-day simulations of July 2007. We found that interactive ozone increased the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) by 3 W m-2 decreasing the bias with respect to remotely sensed OLR. The improvement is due to a high bias in the climatological ozone profiles. The interactive ozone had a small impact on mean upper troposphere temperature (-0.15°C). The UMD-CTM simulations indicate that NA anthropogenic emissions are responsible for more ozone export but less ozone radiative forcing than lightning NO emissions. Over the North Atlantic, NA anthropogenic emissions contributed 0.15--0.30 W m-2 to the net downward radiative flux at the tropopause while NA lightning contributed 0.30--0.50 W m-2. The ozone export from anthropogenic emissions was almost twice as large as that from lightning emissions. The WRF-Chem simulations show that the export of reactive nitrogen was 23%--28% of the boundary layer emissions and 26%--38% of the total emissions including lightning NO.

Diurnal variations and source apportionment of ozone at the summit of Mount Huang, a rural site in Eastern China.

PubMed

Gao, J; Zhu, B; Xiao, H; Kang, H; Hou, X; Yin, Y; Zhang, L; Miao, Q

2017-03-01

Comprehensive measurements were conducted at the summit of Mount (Mt.) Huang, a rural site located in eastern China during the summer of 2011. They observed that ozone showed pronounced diurnal variations with high concentrations at night and low values during daytime. The Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was applied to simulate the ozone concentrations at Mt. Huang in June 2011. With processes analysis and online ozone tagging method we coupled into the model system, the causes of this diurnal pattern and the contributions from different source regions were investigated. Our results showed that boundary layer diurnal cycle played an important role in driving the ozone diurnal variation. Further analysis showed that the negative contribution of vertical mixing was significant, resulting in the ozone decrease during the daytime. In contrast, ozone increased at night owing to the significant positive contribution of advection. This shifting of major factor between vertical mixing and advection formed this diurnal variation. Ozone source apportionment results indicated that approximately half was provided by inflow effect of ozone from outside the model domain (O 3-INFLOW ) and the other half was formed by ozone precursors (O 3-PBL ) emitted in eastern, central, and southern China. In the O 3-PBL , 3.0% of the ozone was from Mt. Huang reflecting the small local contribution (O 3-LOC ) and the non-local contributions (O 3-NLOC ) accounted for 41.6%, in which ozone from the southerly regions contributed significantly, for example, 9.9% of the ozone originating from Jiangxi, representing the highest geographical contributor. Because the origin and variation of O 3-NLOC was highly related to the diurnal movements in boundary layer, the similar diurnal patterns between O 3-NLOC and total ozone both indicated the direct influence of O 3-NLOC and the importance of boundary layer diurnal variations in the formation of such distinct diurnal ozone variations at Mt. Huang. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

2009-12-21

We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality legislation is fully implemented, to a more optimistic case with maximum feasible reductions, through to a more pessimistic case with continued strong economic growth and minimal implementation of air quality legislation. Elevated surface ozone concentrations during the 2003 heatwave period led to exceedences of the current UK air quality objective standards. A coupled climate-chemistry model is able to reproduce these temperature and ozone extremes. By combining model simulations of surface temperature and ozone with ozone-heat-mortality relationships derived from an epidemiological regression model, we estimate present-day and future health burdens across the UK. Future air quality legislation may need to consider the risk of increases in future heatwaves.

PolEASIA Project: Pollution in Eastern Asia - towards better Air Quality Prevision and Impacts' Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufour, Gaëlle; Albergel, Armand; Balkanski, Yves; Beekmann, Matthias; Cai, Zhaonan; Fortems-Cheiney, Audrey; Cuesta, Juan; Derognat, Claude; Eremenko, Maxim; Foret, Gilles; Hauglustaine, Didier; Lachatre, Matthieu; Laurent, Benoit; Liu, Yi; Meng, Fan; Siour, Guillaume; Tao, Shu; Velay-Lasry, Fanny; Zhang, Qijie; Zhang, Yuli

2017-04-01

The rapid economic development and urbanization of China during the last decades resulted in rising pollutant emissions leading to amongst the largest pollutant concentrations in the world for the major pollutants (ozone, PM2.5, and PM10). Robust monitoring and forecasting systems associated with downstream services providing comprehensive risk indicators are highly needed to establish efficient pollution mitigation strategies. In addition, a precise evaluation of the present and future impacts of Chinese pollutant emissions is of importance to quantify: first, the consequences of pollutants export on atmospheric composition and air quality all over the globe; second, the additional radiative forcing induced by the emitted and produced short-lived climate forcers (ozone and aerosols); third, the long-term health consequences of pollution exposure. To achieve this, a detailed understanding of East Asian pollution is necessary. The French PolEASIA project aims at addressing these different issues by providing a better quantification of major pollutants sources and distributions as well as of their recent and future evolution. The main objectives, methodologies and tools of this starting 4-year project will be presented. An ambitious synergistic and multi-scale approach coupling innovative satellite observations, in situ measurements and chemical transport model simulations will be developed to characterize the spatial distribution, the interannual to daily variability and the trends of the major pollutants (ozone and aerosols) and their sources over East Asia, and to quantify the role of the different processes (emissions, transport, chemical transformation) driving the observed pollutant distributions. A particular attention will be paid to assess the natural and anthropogenic contributions to East Asian pollution. Progress made with the understanding of pollutant sources, especially in terms of modeling of pollution over East Asia and advanced numerical approaches such as inverse modeling will serve the development of an efficient and marketable forecasting system for regional outdoor air pollution. The performances of this upgraded forecasting system will be evaluated and promoted to ensure a good visibility of the French technology. In addition, the contribution of Chinese pollution to the regional and global atmospheric composition, as well as the resulting radiative forcing of short-lived species will be determined using both satellite observations and model simulations. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) methods coupled with model simulations will be used to estimate the long-term impacts of exposure to pollutants (PM2.5 and ozone) on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. First results obtained in this framework will be presented.

Identifying and forecasting deep stratospheric ozone intrusions over the western United States from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, M.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Cooper, O. R.; Langford, A. O.; Pan, L.; Liu, X.; Reddy, P. J.

2012-12-01

Recent studies have shown that deep stratospheric ozone intrusions can episodically enhance ground-level ozone above the health-based standard over the western U.S. in spring. Advanced warning of incoming intrusions could be used by state agencies to inform the public about poor air quality days. Here we explore the potential for using total ozone retrievals (version 5.2, level 3) at twice daily near global coverage from the AIRS instrument aboard the NASA Aqua satellite to identify stratospheric intrusions and forecast the eventual surface destination of transported stratospheric ozone. The method involves the correlation of AIRS daily total ozone columns at each 1ox1o grid box ~1-3 days prior to stratospheric enhancements to daily maximum 8-hour average ozone at a selected surface site using datasets from April to June in 2003-2011. The surface stratospheric enhancements are estimated by the GFDL AM3 chemistry-climate model which includes full stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry and is nudged to reanalysis winds. Our earlier work shows that the model presents deep stratospheric intrusions over the Western U.S. consistently with observations from AIRS, surface networks, daily ozone sondes, and aircraft lidar available in spring of 2010 during the NOAA CalNex field campaign. For the 15 surface sites in the U.S. Mountain West considered, a correlation coefficient of 0.4-0.7 emerges with AIRS ozone columns over 30o-50oN latitudes and 125o-105oW longitudes - variability in the AIRS column within this spatial domain indicates incoming intrusions. For each "surface receptor site", the spatial domain can narrow to an area ~5ox5o northwest of the individual site, with the strong correlation (0.5-0.7) occurring when the AIRS data is lagged by 1 day from the AM3 stratospheric enhancements in surface air. The spatial pattern of correlations is consistent with our process-oriented understanding developed from case studies of extreme intrusions. Surface observations during these events show that the sites experiencing elevated ozone levels are typically located over the southeastern side of the enhanced ozone columns captured by AIRS ~12 hours to 1 day prior. This first scoping study suggests there is potential to use near-daily global coverage of ozone in total column or in UT/LS levels from the space-based instruments (e.g. AIRS, OMI, MLS) to serve as a qualitative early-warning indicator of incoming stratospheric intrusions with a lead time of ~1-3 days. There is more skill in ~12 hours to 1 day as to where the intrusion will reach the surface, particularly during the ENSO years (i.e. 2003, 2008, 2010, 2011) when deep intrusions are more likely to occur as compared to other years. These space-based ozone products can also provide some indication of whether a historic exceedance was caused by an intrusion.

Exponential approximation for daily average solar heating or photolysis. [of stratospheric ozone layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cogley, A. C.; Borucki, W. J.

1976-01-01

When incorporating formulations of instantaneous solar heating or photolytic rates as functions of altitude and sun angle into long range forecasting models, it may be desirable to replace the time integrals by daily average rates that are simple functions of latitude and season. This replacement is accomplished by approximating the integral over the solar day by a pure exponential. This gives a daily average rate as a multiplication factor times the instantaneous rate evaluated at an appropriate sun angle. The accuracy of the exponential approximation is investigated by a sample calculation using an instantaneous ozone heating formulation available in the literature.

Status of Air Quality in Central California and Needs for Further Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanrikulu, S.; Beaver, S.; Soong, S.; Tran, C.; Jia, Y.; Matsuoka, J.; McNider, R. T.; Biazar, A. P.; Palazoglu, A.; Lee, P.; Wang, J.; Kang, D.; Aneja, V. P.

2012-12-01

Ozone and PM2.5 levels frequently exceed NAAQS in central California (CC). Additional emission reductions are needed to attain and maintain the standards there. Agencies are developing cost-effective emission control strategies along with complementary incentive programs to reduce emissions when exceedances are forecasted. These approaches require accurate modeling and forecasting capabilities. A variety of models have been rigorously applied (MM5, WRF, CMAQ, CAMx) over CC. Despite the vast amount of land-based measurements from special field programs and significant effort, models have historically exhibited marginal performance. Satellite data may improve model performance by: establishing IC/BC over outlying areas of the modeling domain having unknown conditions; enabling FDDA over the Pacific Ocean to characterize important marine inflows and pollutant outflows; and filling in the gaps of the land-based monitoring network. BAAQMD, in collaboration with the NASA AQAST, plans to conduct four studies that include satellite-based data in CC air quality analysis and modeling: The first project enhances and refines weather patterns, especially aloft, impacting summer ozone formation. Surface analyses were unable to characterize the strong attenuating effect of the complex terrain to steer marine winds impinging on the continent. The dense summer clouds and fog over the Pacific Ocean form spatial patterns that can be related to the downstream air flows through polluted areas. The goal of this project is to explore, characterize, and quantify these relationships using cloud cover data. Specifically, cloud agreement statistics will be developed using satellite data and model clouds. Model skin temperature predictions will be compared to both MODIS and GOES skin temperatures. The second project evaluates and improves the initial and simulated fields of meteorological models that provide inputs to air quality models. The study will attempt to determine whether a cloud dynamical adjustment developed by UAHuntsville can improve model performance for maritime stratus and whether a moisture adjustment scheme in the Pleim-Xiu boundary layer scheme can use satellite data in place of coarse surface air temperature measurements. The goal is to improve meteorological model performance that leads to improved air quality model performance. The third project evaluates and improves forecasting skills of the National Air Quality Forecasting Model in CC by using land-based routine measurements as well as satellite data. Local forecasts are mostly based on surface meteorological and air quality measurements and weather charts provided by NWS. The goal is to improve the average accuracy in forecasting exceedances, which is around 60%. The fourth project uses satellite data for monitoring trends in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the San Francisco Bay Area. It evaluates the effectiveness of a rule adopted in 2008 that restricts household wood burning on days forecasted to have high PM2.5 levels. The goal is to complement current analyses based on surface data covering the largest sub-regions and population centers. The overall goal is to use satellite data to overcome limitations of land-based measurements. The outcomes will be further conceptual understanding of pollutant formation, improved regulatory model performance, and better optimized forecasting programs.

Ozone Depletion in the Arctic Lower Stratosphere; Timing and Impacts on the Polar Vortex.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rae, Cameron; Pyle, John

2017-04-01

There a strong link between ozone depletion in the Antarctic lower stratosphere and the strength/duration of the southern hemisphere polar vortex. Ozone depletion arising from enhanced levels of ODS in the lower stratosphere during the last few decades of the 20th century has been accompanied by a delay in the final warming date in the southern hemisphere. The delay in final warming is associated with anomalous tropospheric conditions. The relationship in the Arctic, however, is less clear as the northern hemisphere experiences relatively less intense ozone destruction in the Arctic lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is generally less stable. This study investigates the impacts of imposed lower stratospheric ozone depletion on the evolution of the polar vortex, particularly in the late-spring towards the end of its lifetime. A perpetual-year integration is compared with a series of near-identical seasonal integrations which differ only by an imposed artificial ozone depletion event, occurring a fixed number of days before the polar vortex final warming date each year. Any differences between the seasonal forecasts and perpetual year simulation are due to the timely occurrence of a strong ozone depletion event in the late-spring Arctic polar vortex. This ensemble of seasonal forecasts demonstrates the impacts that a strong ozone depletion event in the Arctic lower stratosphere will have on the evolution of the polar vortex, and highlights tropospheric impacts associated with this phenomenon.

Recommendations of the panels: Panel on flight planning to avoid high ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohnen, V. A.

1979-01-01

Flights planned or accomplished during certain months of the year at the higher latitudes and altitudes at or above the tropopause are discussed. Cabin ozone level limitations are established, and additional information is required for more accurate and qualtitative forecasting and design data base for operational utilization. Better tropopause heights, ozone concentration and corresponding meteorological data along selected flight routes, and meteorological data were investigated.

NOAA's National Air Quality Prediction and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for NGGPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Wilczak, J. M.; Upadhayay, S.; daSilva, A.; Lu, C. H.; Grell, G. A.; Pierce, R. B.

2017-12-01

NOAA's operational air quality predictions of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and wildfire smoke over the United States and airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) providing these predictions was updated in June 2017. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are now produced using the system linking the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) version 4. Predictions of PM2.5 include intermittent dust emissions and wildfire emissions from an updated version of BlueSky system. For the latter, the CMAQ system is initialized by rerunning it over the previous 24 hours to include wildfire emissions at the time when they were observed from the satellites. Post processing to reduce the bias in PM2.5 prediction was updated using the Kalman filter analog (KFAN) technique. Dust related aerosol species at the CMAQ domain lateral boundaries now come from the NEMS Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) v2 predictions. Further development of NAQFC includes testing of CMAQ predictions to 72 hours, Canadian fire emissions data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the KFAN technique to reduce bias in ozone predictions. NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Predictions System (NGGPS) with an aerosol and gaseous atmospheric composition component to improve and integrate aerosol and ozone predictions and evaluate their impacts on physics, data assimilation and weather prediction. Efforts are underway to improve cloud microphysics, investigate aerosol effects and include representations of atmospheric composition of varying complexity into NGGPS: from the operational ozone parameterization, GOCART aerosols, with simplified ozone chemistry, to CMAQ chemistry with aerosol modules. We will present progress on community building, planning and development of NGGPS.

Benefits of Using Remote Sensing for Health Alerts and Chronic Respiratory Exposures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luvall, J. C.

2010-01-01

Respiratory diseases such as asthma can be triggered by environmental conditions that can be monitored using Earth observing data and environmental forecast models. Frequent dust storms in the southwestern United States, the annual cycle of juniper pollen events in the spring, and increased aerosol and ozone concentrations in summer, are health concerns shared by the community at large. Being able to forecast the occurrence of these events would help the health care community prepare for increased visits to emergency rooms, as well as allow public health officials to issue alerts to affected persons. This information also is important to epidemiologists for analyzing long-term trends and impacts of these events on the health and well-being of the community. Earth observing data collected by remote sensing platforms are important for improving the performance of models that can forecast these events, and in turn, improve products and information for decision-making by public health authorities. This presentation will discuss the benefits of using remote sensing data for forecasting environmental events that can adversely affect individuals with respiratory ailments. The presentations will include a brief discussion on relevant Earth observing data, the forecast models used, and societal benefits of the resulting products and information. Several NASA-funded projects will be highlighted as examples

On The Usage Of Fire Smoke Emissions In An Air Quality Forecasting System To Reduce Particular Matter Forecasting Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; DiMego, G.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

2016-12-01

Wildfires contribute to air quality problems not only towards primary emissions of particular matters (PM) but also emitted ozone precursor gases that can lead to elevated ozone concentration. Wildfires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or accidently by human negligent behavior such as live cigarette. Although wildfire impacts on the air quality can be studied by collecting fire information after events, it is extremely difficult to predict future occurrence and behavior of wildfires for real-time air quality forecasts. Because of the time constraints of operational air quality forecasting, assumption of future day's fire behavior often have to be made based on observed fire information in the past. The United States (U.S.) NOAA/NWS built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. EPA CMAQ to provide air quality forecast guidance (prediction) publicly. State and local forecasters use the forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC fine particulates (PM2.5) prediction includes emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and fires. The fire emission input to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA NESDIS HMS fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the US Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. This study focuses on the error estimation of NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from fire emissions. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that present operational NAQFC fire emissions assumption can lead to a huge error in PM2.5 prediction as fire emissions are sometimes placed at wrong location and time. This PM2.5 prediction error can be propagated from the fire source in the Northwest U.S. to downstream areas as far as the Southeast U.S. From this study, a new procedure has been identified to minimize the aforementioned error. An additional 24 hours reanalysis-run of NAQFC using same-day observed fire emission are being tested. Preliminary results have shown that this procedure greatly improves the PM2.5 predictions at both nearby and downstream areas from fire sources. The 24 hours reanalysis-run is critical and necessary especially during extreme fire events to provide better PM2.5 predictions.

Impacts of seasonal and regional variability in biogenic VOC emissions on surface ozone in the Pearl River Delta region, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Situ, S.; Guenther, Alex B.; Wang, X. J.

In this study, the BVOC emissions in November 2010 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in southern China have been estimated by the latest version of a Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emission model (MEGAN v2.1). The evaluation of MEGAN performance at a representative forest site within this region indicates MEGAN can estimate BVOC emissions reasonably well in this region except overestimating isoprene emission in autumn for reasons that are discussed in this manuscript. Along with the output from MEGAN, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) is used to estimate the impacts of BVOC emissions onmore » surface ozone in the PRD region. The results show BVOC emissions increase the daytime ozone peak by *3 ppb on average, and the max hourly impacts of BVOC emissions on the daytime ozone peak is 24.8 ppb. Surface ozone mixing ratios in the central area of Guangzhou- Foshan and the western Jiangmen are most sensitive to BVOC emissions BVOCs from outside and central PRD influence the central area of Guangzhou-Foshan and the western Jiangmen significantly while BVOCs from rural PRD mainly influence the western Jiangmen. The impacts of BVOC emissions on surface ozone differ in different PRD cities, and the impact varies in different seasons. Foshan and Jiangmen being most affected in autumn, result in 6.0 ppb and 5.5 ppb increases in surface ozone concentrations, while Guangzhou and Huizhou become more affected in summer. Three additional experiments concerning the sensitivity of surface ozone to MEGAN input variables show that surface ozone is more sensitive to landcover change, followed by emission factors and meteorology.« less

Consistency between the global and regional modeling components of CAMS over Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katragkou, Eleni; Akritidis, Dimitrios; Kontos, Serafim; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Engelen, Richard; Plu, Matthieu; Eskes, Henk

2017-04-01

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) is a component of the European Earth Observation programme Copernicus. CAMS consists of two major forecast and analysis systems: i) the CAMS global near-real time service, based on the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (C-IFS), which provides daily analyses and forecasts of reactive trace gases, greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations ii) a regional ensemble (ENS) for European air quality, compiled and disseminated by Météo-France, which consists of seven ensemble members. The boundaries from the regional ensemble members are extracted from the global CAMS forecast product. This work reports on the consistency between the global and regional modeling components of CAMS, and the impact of global CAMS boundary conditions on regional forecasts. The current analysis includes ozone (O3) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol (PM10/PM2.5) forecasts. The comparison indicates an overall good agreement between the global C-IFS and the regional ENS patterns for O3 and CO, especially above 250m altitude, indicating that the global boundary conditions are efficiently included in the regional ensemble simulations. As expected, differences are found within the PBL, with lower/higher C-IFS O3/CO concentrations over continental Europe with respect to ENS.

Delivery of Forecasted Atmospheric Ozone and Dust for the New Mexico Environmental Public Health Tracking System - An Open Source Geospatial Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudspeth, W. B.; Sanchez-Silva, R.; Cavner, J. A.

2010-12-01

New Mexico's Environmental Public Health Tracking System (EPHTS), funded by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), aims to improve health awareness and services by linking health effects data with levels and frequency of environmental exposure. As a public health decision-support system, EPHTS systems include: state-of-the-art statistical analysis tools; geospatial visualization tools; data discovery, extraction, and delivery tools; and environmental/public health linkage information. As part of its mandate, EPHTS issues public health advisories and forecasts of environmental conditions that have consequences for human health. Through a NASA-funded partnership between the University of New Mexico and the University of Arizona, NASA Earth Science results are fused into two existing models (the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model) in order to improve forecasts of atmospheric dust, ozone, and aerosols. The results and products derived from the outputs of these models are made available to an Open Source mapping component of the New Mexico EPHTS. In particular, these products are integrated into a Django content management system using GeoDjango, GeoAlchemy, and other OGC-compliant geospatial libraries written in the Python and C++ programming languages. Capabilities of the resultant mapping system include indicator-based thematic mapping, data delivery, and analytical capabilities. DREAM and CMAQ outputs can be inspected, via REST calls, through temporal and spatial subsetting of the atmospheric concentration data across analytical units employed by the public health community. This paper describes details of the architecture and integration of NASA Earth Science into the EPHTS decision-support system.

Characterization of Polar Stratospheric Cloud-Producing Mountain Waves using Thermal Radiance Imagery from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckermann, S. D.; Wu, D. L.; Doyle, J. D.; Burris, J. F.; McGee, T. J.; Hostetler, C. A.; Lawrence, B. N.; Stephens, A.; McCormack, J. P.; Coy, L.; Hogan, T. F.

2006-12-01

The Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) acquires pushbroom thermal radiance imagery from the NOAA 15-18 meteorological satellites and NASA's Aqua research satellite. We develop a simplified forward model of its in-orbit radiance acquisition and use it to demonstrate that the swath-scanned Channel 9 radiances (peaking at ~60--90~hPa) can resolve and horizontally image long wavelength gravity waves. To validate these inferences, we isolate and study structure in Channel 9 radiances acquired by AMSU-A instruments over Scandinavia on 14 January 2003. On this day, mountain waves were forecast to form polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) over southern Scandinavia during NASA's second SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE II) out of Kiruna, Sweden. Based on this forecast guidance, a flight was planned with NASA's DC-8 research aircraft, in which onboard aerosol lidars measured extensive tilted layers of enhanced aerosol backscatter typical of type II PSCs formed in the cooling phases of mountain waves. We show that these PSC-forming mountain waves were imaged in AMSU-A Channel 9 radiance imagery, which shows the waves growing in amplitude from 0600-1200 UTC and then weakening slightly and changing horizontal structure from 1200-2000 UTC. Our forward model results are used to infer 90 hPa peak wave temperature amplitudes of ~6--7~K, values validated by radiosonde data and full three-dimensional in-orbit forward modeling of three-dimensional temperatures, as forecast/hindcast by a suite of global and mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. These results demonstrate that AMSU-A radiances can provide important new hemispheric information on the role of long-wavelength stratospheric mountain waves in PSC formation, denitrification and polar ozone loss.

Evidence of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport Within a Mesoscale Model and TOMS Total Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Stanford, John L.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We present evidence for stratospheric mass transport into, and remaining in, the troposphere in an intense midlatitude cyclone. Mesoscale forecast model analysis fields from the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System (MAPS) were compared with total ozone observations from the Total Ozone Measurement Spectrometer (TOMS). Coupled with parcel back-trajectory calculations, the analyses suggest two mechanisms contributed to the mass exchange: (1) A region of dynamical ly-induced exchange occurred on the cyclone's southern edge. Parcels originally in the stratosphere crossed the jet core and experienced dilution by turbulent mixing with tropospheric air. (2) Diabatic effects reduced parcel potential vorticity (PV) for trajectories traversing precipitation regions, resulting in a "PV-hole" signature in the cyclone center. Air with lower-stratospheric values of ozone and water vapor was left in the troposphere. The strength of the latter process may be atypical. These results, combined with other research, suggest that precipitation-induced diabatic effects can significantly modify, (either decreasing or increasing) parcel potential vorticity, depending on parcel trajectory configuration with respect to jet core and maximum heating regions. In addition, these results underscore the importance of using not only PV but also chemical constituents for diagnoses of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE).

Verification of CMAQ modeling with Discover-AQ campaigns against measurements and efficacy of emission inversion modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, P.; Tang, Y.; Pan, L.; Szykman, J.; Plessel, T.; Tong, D.; Liu, Q.

2015-12-01

NASA has led a few DISCOVER-AQ campaigns in recent years: (1) Baltimore/Washington in July 2011, (2) Central valley, CA in January - February 2013, (3) Houston, TX in September 2013, and co-led with NCAR (4) Front Range, CO in July - August 2014. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory has participated in all these campaigns in the role of air quality forecasting support. For some of these campaigns post analyses were performed with the possible help of after-the-fact observed data from satellite retrieved radiances to constrain emissions through the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) developed at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation. It is our experience that despite the vastly different chemical regime, season, terrain, and meteorological conditions of the domain for the campaigns, we found that the emissions input and the U.S. EPA Community Air Quality model (CMAQ), the forecasting chemical transport model used to generate the forecast had severely under-estimated formaldehyde (HCHO), and carbon monoxide (CO) aloft between surface and the middle of the free troposphere - 500 hPa. Post analyses point to two strong suspects of these deficiencies: (a) emission projection fed into CMAQ, and/or (b) erroneously fast removal of the species. We investigate both of these potential deficiencies and for the former possible reason we looked into data assimilation and possible inverse modeling to adjust emission projection for CMAQ. We will elaborate more on the CRTM which plays a critical role in this aspect of remedying erroneous inputs to CMAQ. In addition, we will utilize some satellite products to improve initial fields of aerosols and CO for air quality forecasting. Suomi NPP VIIRS aerosol optical depth (AOD) environmental data record (EDR) delivers global aerosol information daily. The Unique CrIS/ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) operationally generates vertical profiles of atmospheric carbonate EDRs (CO, CO2, and CH4) and ozone during day and night. The AOD can be assimilated by using the CRTM. The carbonate EDRs and ozone EDR can be directly assimilated.

Air Quality Science and Regulatory Efforts Require Geostationary Satellite Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Kenneth E.; Allen, D. J.; Stehr, J. W.

2006-01-01

Air quality scientists and regulatory agencies would benefit from the high spatial and temporal resolution trace gas and aerosol data that could be provided by instruments on a geostationary platform. More detailed time-resolved data from a geostationary platform could be used in tracking regional transport and in evaluating mesoscale air quality model performance in terms of photochemical evolution throughout the day. The diurnal cycle of photochemical pollutants is currently missing from the data provided by the current generation of atmospheric chemistry satellites which provide only one measurement per day. Often peak surface ozone mixing ratios are reached much earlier in the day during major regional pollution episodes than during local episodes due to downward mixing of ozone that had been transported above the boundary layer overnight. The regional air quality models often do not simulate this downward mixing well enough and underestimate surface ozone in regional episodes. Having high time-resolution geostationary data will make it possible to determine the magnitude of this lower-and mid-tropospheric transport that contributes to peak eight-hour average ozone and 24-hour average PM2.5 concentrations. We will show ozone and PM(sub 2.5) episodes from the CMAQ model and suggest ways in which geostationary satellite data would improve air quality forecasting. Current regulatory modeling is typically being performed at 12 km horizontal resolution. State and regional air quality regulators in regions with complex topography and/or land-sea breezes are anxious to move to 4-km or finer resolution simulations. Geostationary data at these or finer resolutions will be useful in evaluating such models.

Two Decades of WRF/CMAQ simulations over the continental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Confidence in the application of models for forecasting and regulatory assessments is furthered by conducting four types of model evaluation: operational, dynamic, diagnostic, and probabilistic. Operational model evaluation alone does not reveal the confidence limits that can be associated with modeled air quality concentrations. This paper presents novel approaches for performing dynamic model evaluation and for evaluating the confidence limits of ozone exceedances using the WRF/CMAQ model simulations over the continental United States for the period from 1990 to 2010. The methodology presented here entails spectral decomposition of ozone time series using the KZ filter to assess the variations in the strengths of the synoptic (i.e., weather-induced variation) and baseline (i.e., long-term variation attributable to emissions, policy, and trends) forcings embedded in the modeled and observed concentrations. A method is presented where the future year observations are estimated based on the changes in the concentrations predicted by the model applied to the current year observations. The proposed method can provide confidence limits for ozone exceedances for a given emission reduction scenario. We present and discuss these new approaches to identify the strengths of the model in representing the changes in simulated O3 air quality over the 21-year period. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin

PubMed Central

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency’s model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes. PMID:29162976

Linking Air Quality and Human Health Effects Models: An Application to the Los Angeles Air Basin.

PubMed

Stewart, Devoun R; Saunders, Emily; Perea, Roberto A; Fitzgerald, Rosa; Campbell, David E; Stockwell, William R

2017-01-01

Proposed emission control strategies for reducing ozone and particulate matter are evaluated better when air quality and health effects models are used together. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is the US Environmental Protection Agency's model for determining public policy and forecasting air quality. CMAQ was used to forecast air quality changes due to several emission control strategies that could be implemented between 2008 and 2030 for the South Coast Air Basin that includes Los Angeles. The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) was used to estimate health and economic impacts of the different emission control strategies based on CMAQ simulations. BenMAP-CE is a computer program based on epidemiologic studies that link human health and air quality. This modeling approach is better for determining optimum public policy than approaches that only examine concentration changes.

Overview of Global/Regional Models Used to Evaluate Tropospheric Ozone in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Matthew S.

2015-01-01

Ozone (O3) is an important greenhouse gas, toxic pollutant, and plays a major role in atmospheric chemistry. Tropospheric O3 which resides in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is highly reactive and has a lifetime on the order of days, however, O3 in the free troposphere and stratosphere has a lifetime on the order of weeks or months. Modeling O3 mixing ratios at and above the surface is difficult due to the multiple formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large spatio-temporal variability in O3 mixing ratios. This talk will summarize in detail the global/regional models that are commonly used to simulate/predict O3 mixing ratios in the United States. The major models which will be focused on are the: 1) Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), 2) Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), 3) Goddard Earth Observing System with Chemistry (GEOS-Chem), 4) Real Time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), 5) Weather Research and Forecasting/Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART), and 7) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM3 model. I will discuss the major modeling components which impact O3 mixing ratio calculations in each model and the similarities/differences between these models. This presentation is vital to the 2nd Annual Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) Conference as it will provide an overview of tools, which can be used in conjunction with TOLNet data, to evaluate the complex chemistry and transport pathways controlling tropospheric O3 mixing ratios.

The effect of entrainment through atmospheric boundary layer growth on observed and modeled surface ozone in the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaser, L.; Patton, E. G.; Pfister, G. G.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Montzka, D. D.; Flocke, F.; Thompson, A. M.; Stauffer, R. M.; Halliday, H. S.

2017-06-01

Ozone concentrations at the Earth's surface are controlled by meteorological and chemical processes and are a function of advection, entrainment, deposition, and net chemical production/loss. The relative contributions of these processes vary in time and space. Understanding the relative importance of these processes controlling surface ozone concentrations is an essential component for designing effective regulatory strategies. Here we focus on the diurnal cycle of entrainment through atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) growth in the Colorado Front Range. Aircraft soundings and surface observations collected in July/August 2014 during the DISCOVER-AQ/FRAPPÉ (Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality/Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment) campaigns and equivalent data simulated by a regional chemical transport model are analyzed. Entrainment through ABL growth is most important in the early morning, fumigating the surface at a rate of 5 ppbv/h. The fumigation effect weakens near noon and changes sign to become a small dilution effect in the afternoon on the order of -1 ppbv/h. The chemical transport model WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting Model with chemistry) underestimates ozone at all altitudes during this study on the order of 10-15 ppbv. The entrainment through ABL growth is overestimated by the model in the order of 0.6-0.8 ppbv/h. This results from differences in boundary layer growth in the morning and ozone concentration jump across the ABL top in the afternoon. This implicates stronger modeled fumigation in the morning and weaker modeled dilution after 11:00 LT.

Air quality modeling for the urban Jackson, Mississippi Region using a high resolution WRF/Chem model.

PubMed

Yerramilli, Anjaneyulu; Dodla, Venkata B; Desamsetti, Srinivas; Challa, Srinivas V; Young, John H; Patrick, Chuck; Baham, Julius M; Hughes, Robert L; Yerramilli, Sudha; Tuluri, Francis; Hardy, Mark G; Swanier, Shelton J

2011-06-01

In this study, an attempt was made to simulate the air quality with reference to ozone over the Jackson (Mississippi) region using an online WRF/Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry) model. The WRF/Chem model has the advantages of the integration of the meteorological and chemistry modules with the same computational grid and same physical parameterizations and includes the feedback between the atmospheric chemistry and physical processes. The model was designed to have three nested domains with the inner-most domain covering the study region with a resolution of 1 km. The model was integrated for 48 hours continuously starting from 0000 UTC of 6 June 2006 and the evolution of surface ozone and other precursor pollutants were analyzed. The model simulated atmospheric flow fields and distributions of NO2 and O3 were evaluated for each of the three different time periods. The GIS based spatial distribution maps for ozone, its precursors NO, NO2, CO and HONO and the back trajectories indicate that all the mobile sources in Jackson, Ridgeland and Madison contributing significantly for their formation. The present study demonstrates the applicability of WRF/Chem model to generate quantitative information at high spatial and temporal resolution for the development of decision support systems for air quality regulatory agencies and health administrators.

The effects of forest canopy shading and turbulence on boundary layer ozone.

PubMed

Makar, P A; Staebler, R M; Akingunola, A; Zhang, J; McLinden, C; Kharol, S K; Pabla, B; Cheung, P; Zheng, Q

2017-05-18

The chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere close to the surface is known to be strongly influenced by vegetation. However, two critical aspects of the forest environment have been neglected in the description of the large-scale influence of forests on air pollution: the reduction of photolysis reaction rates and the modification of vertical transport due to the presence of foliage. Here we show that foliage shading and foliage-modified vertical diffusion have a profound influence on atmospheric chemistry, both at the Earth's surface and extending throughout the atmospheric boundary layer. The absence of these processes in three-dimensional models may account for 59-72% of the positive bias in North American surface ozone forecasts, and up to 97% of the bias in forested regions within the continent. These processes are shown to have similar or greater influence on surface ozone levels as climate change and current emissions policy scenario simulations.

The effects of forest canopy shading and turbulence on boundary layer ozone

PubMed Central

Makar, P. A.; Staebler, R. M.; Akingunola, A.; Zhang, J.; McLinden, C.; Kharol, S. K.; Pabla, B.; Cheung, P.; Zheng, Q.

2017-01-01

The chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere close to the surface is known to be strongly influenced by vegetation. However, two critical aspects of the forest environment have been neglected in the description of the large-scale influence of forests on air pollution: the reduction of photolysis reaction rates and the modification of vertical transport due to the presence of foliage. Here we show that foliage shading and foliage-modified vertical diffusion have a profound influence on atmospheric chemistry, both at the Earth's surface and extending throughout the atmospheric boundary layer. The absence of these processes in three-dimensional models may account for 59–72% of the positive bias in North American surface ozone forecasts, and up to 97% of the bias in forested regions within the continent. These processes are shown to have similar or greater influence on surface ozone levels as climate change and current emissions policy scenario simulations. PMID:28516905

Evaluating Lightning-generated NOx (LNOx) Parameterization based on Cloud Top Height at Resolutions with Partially-resolved Convection for Upper Tropospheric Chemistry Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, J.; Barth, M. C.; Noone, D. C.

2012-12-01

Lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) is an important precursor to tropospheric ozone production. With a meteorological time-scale variability similar to that of the ozone chemical lifetime, it can nonlinearly perturb tropospheric ozone concentration. Coupled with upper-air circulation patterns, LNOx can accumulate in significant amount in the upper troposphere with other precursors, thus enhancing ozone production (see attached figure). While LNOx emission has been included and tuned extensively in global climate models, its inclusions in regional chemistry models are seldom tested. Here we present a study that evaluates the frequently used Price and Rind parameterization based on cloud-top height at resolutions that partially resolve deep convection using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) over the contiguous United States. With minor modifications, the parameterization is shown to generate integrated flash counts close to those observed. However, the modeled frequency distribution of cloud-to-ground flashes do not represent well for storms with high flash rates, bringing into question the applicability of the intra-cloud/ground partitioning (IC:CG) formulation of Price and Rind in some studies. Resolution dependency also requires attention when sub-grid cloud-tops are used instead of the originally intended grid-averaged cloud-top. LNOx passive tracers being gathered by monsoonal upper tropospheric anticyclone.

The Simulations of Wildland Fire Smoke PM25 in the NWS Air Quality Forecasting Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

2017-12-01

The increase of wildland fire intensity and frequency in the United States (U.S.) has led to property loss, human fatality, and poor air quality due to elevated particulate matters and surface ozone concentrations. The NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System driven by the NCEP North American Mesoscale Forecast System meteorology to provide ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) forecast guidance publicly. State and local forecasters use the NWS air quality forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC PM2.5 predictions include emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and wildland fires. The wildland fire emission inputs to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Hazard Mapping System fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. Wildland fires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or be human-caused. It is extremely difficult to predict future occurrences and behavior of wildland fires, as is the available bio-fuel to be burned for real-time air quality predictions. Assumptions of future day's wildland fire behavior often have to be made from older observed wildland fire information. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that large errors in PM2.5 prediction can occur if fire smoke emissions are sometimes placed at the wrong location and/or time. A configuration of NAQFC CMAQ-system to re-run previous 24 hours, during which wildland fires were observed from satellites has been included recently. This study focuses on the effort performed to minimize the error in NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from incorporating fire smoke emissions into the NAQFC from a recently updated newer version of USFS BlueSky system. This study will show how new approaches has improved the PM2.5 predictions at both nearby and downstream areas from fire sources. Furthermore, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) fire emissions data are being tested.

Experimental Findings from Aircraft Measurements in the Residual Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caputi, D.; Conley, S. A.; Faloona, I. C.; Trousdell, J.

2016-12-01

The southern San Joaquin Valley of California is home to some of the highest ozone pollution in the United States. Thus, a complete understanding of boundary layer dynamics in this area during high ozone events is crucial for better ozone forecasting and effective attainment planning. This work will discuss the results from five aircraft deployments, spanning two summers, in which a Mooney aircraft operated by Scientific Aviation Inc. was flown between Fresno and Bakersfield throughout the diurnal cycle, measuring ozone, NOx, and methane. Under a simple budgeting model, changes in any species within the boundary layer can occur from advection, chemical production or loss, surface fluxes or deposition, and entrainment between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The advection of ozone appears to be most appreciable at night with stronger winds in the residual layer, and are on the order of 2 to 4 ppb hr-1. The nighttime chemical loss of ozone due to interaction with NO2 can be estimated by simple numerical modeling of observed quantities and reaction rates, and is found to often roughly compensate for the advection, with typical calculated values of -1 to -3 ppb hr-1. The mixing component is more difficult to directly quantify, but attempts are being made to estimate eddy viscosity by solving for this term in the budget equation. Additionally, small-scale features, such as nocturnal elevated mixed layers, localized BRN (bulk Richardson number) minimums, and low level jets are spotted in systematic ways throughout the flight data, and it is speculated that these may have a role in the transfer of ozone from the residual layer to the surface layer. Ultimately, the preliminary data is promising for the eventual goal of linking together the observed boundary layer evolution with ozone production during air pollution episodes.

78 FR 37757 - Revisions to the California State Implementation Plan, South Coast Air Quality Management District

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-24

... the California State Implementation Plan, South Coast Air Quality Management District AGENCY... the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) portion of the California State... Quality Index rather than on 1-hour ozone forecasted values; (b) forecast criteria for allowing a...

Higher measured than modeled ozone production at increased NOx levels in the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baier, Bianca C.; Brune, William H.; Miller, David O.; Blake, Donald; Long, Russell; Wisthaler, Armin; Cantrell, Christopher; Fried, Alan; Heikes, Brian; Brown, Steven; McDuffie, Erin; Flocke, Frank; Apel, Eric; Kaser, Lisa; Weinheimer, Andrew

2017-09-01

Chemical models must correctly calculate the ozone formation rate, P(O3), to accurately predict ozone levels and to test mitigation strategies. However, air quality models can have large uncertainties in P(O3) calculations, which can create uncertainties in ozone forecasts, especially during the summertime when P(O3) is high. One way to test mechanisms is to compare modeled P(O3) to direct measurements. During summer 2014, the Measurement of Ozone Production Sensor (MOPS) directly measured net P(O3) in Golden, CO, approximately 25 km west of Denver along the Colorado Front Range. Net P(O3) was compared to rates calculated by a photochemical box model that was constrained by measurements of other chemical species and that used a lumped chemical mechanism and a more explicit one. Median observed P(O3) was up to a factor of 2 higher than that modeled during early morning hours when nitric oxide (NO) levels were high and was similar to modeled P(O3) for the rest of the day. While all interferences and offsets in this new method are not fully understood, simulations of these possible uncertainties cannot explain the observed P(O3) behavior. Modeled and measured P(O3) and peroxy radical (HO2 and RO2) discrepancies observed here are similar to those presented in prior studies. While a missing atmospheric organic peroxy radical source from volatile organic compounds co-emitted with NO could be one plausible solution to the P(O3) discrepancy, such a source has not been identified and does not fully explain the peroxy radical model-data mismatch. If the MOPS accurately depicts atmospheric P(O3), then these results would imply that P(O3) in Golden, CO, would be NOx-sensitive for more of the day than what is calculated by models, extending the NOx-sensitive P(O3) regime from the afternoon further into the morning. These results could affect ozone reduction strategies for the region surrounding Golden and possibly other areas that do not comply with national ozone regulations. Thus, it is important to continue the development of this direct ozone measurement technique to understand P(O3), especially under high-NOx regimes.

The Global Structure of UTLS Ozone in GEOS-5: A Multi-Year Assimilation of EOS Aura Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, Krzysztof; Pawson, Steven; Olsen, Mark A.; Witte, Jacquelyn C.; Douglass, Anne R.; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Strahan, Susan E.; Nielsen, J. Eric

2015-01-01

Eight years of ozone measurements retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Microwave Limb Sounder, both on the EOS Aura satellite, have been assimilated into the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. This study thoroughly evaluates this assimilated product, highlighting its potential for science. The impact of observations on the GEOS-5 system is explored by examining the spatial distribution of the observation-minus-forecast statistics. Independent data are used for product validation. The correlation coefficient of the lower-stratospheric ozone column with ozonesondes is 0.99 and the bias is 0.5%, indicating the success of the assimilation in reproducing the ozone variability in that layer. The upper-tropospheric assimilated ozone column is about 10% lower than the ozonesonde column but the correlation is still high (0.87). The assimilation is shown to realistically capture the sharp cross-tropopause gradient in ozone mixing ratio. Occurrence of transport-driven low ozone laminae in the assimilation system is similar to that obtained from the High Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) above the 400 K potential temperature surface but the assimilation produces fewer laminae than seen by HIRDLS below that surface. Although the assimilation produces 5 - 8 fewer occurrences per day (up to approximately 20%) during the three years of HIRDLS data, the interannual variability is captured correctly. This data-driven assimilated product is complementary to ozone fields generated from chemistry and transport models. Applications include study of the radiative forcing by ozone and tracer transport near the tropopause.

Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) - Long-term Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosol Profiling for Satellite Continuity and Process Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newchurch, M.; Al-Saadi, J. A.; Alvarez, R. J.; Burris, J.; Cantrell, W.; Chen, G.; De Young, R.; Hardesty, R.; Hoff, R. M.; Kaye, J. A.; kuang, S.; Langford, A. O.; LeBlanc, T.; McDermid, I. S.; McGee, T. J.; Pierce, R.; Senff, C. J.; Sullivan, J. T.; Szykman, J.; Tonnesen, G.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

An interagency research initiative for ground-based ozone and aerosol lidar profiling recently funded by NASA has important applications to air-quality studies in addition to the goal of serving the GEO-CAPE and other air-quality missions. Ozone is a key trace-gas species, a greenhouse gas, and an important pollutant in the troposphere. High spatial and temporal variability of ozone affected by various physical and photochemical processes motivates the high spatio-temporal lidar profiling of tropospheric ozone for improving the simulation and forecasting capability of the photochemical/air-quality models, especially in the boundary layer where the resolution and precision of satellite retrievals are fundamentally limited. It is well known that there are large discrepancies between the surface and upper-air ozone due to titration, surface deposition, diurnal processes, free-tropospheric transport, and other processes. Near-ground ozone profiling has been technically challenging for lidars due to some engineering difficulties, such as near-range saturation, field-of-view overlap, and signal processing issues. This initiative provides an opportunity for us to solve those engineering issues and redesign the lidars aimed at long-term, routine ozone/aerosol observations from the near surface to the top of the troposphere at multiple stations (i.e., NASA/GSFC, NASA/LaRC, NASA/JPL, NOAA/ESRL, UAHuntsville) for addressing the needs of NASA, NOAA, EPA and State/local AQ agencies. We will present the details of the science investigations, current status of the instrumentation development, data access/protocol, and the future goals of this lidar network. Ozone lidar/RAQMS comparison of laminar structures.

Ozone Satellite Data Synergy and Combination with Non-satellite Data in the AURORA project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortesi, U.; Tirelli, C.; Arola, A.; Dragani, R.; Keppens, A.; Loenen, E.; Masini, A.; Tsiakos, , C.; van der A, R.; Verberne, K.

2017-12-01

The geostationary satellite constellation composed of TEMPO (North America), SENTINEL-4 (Europe) and GEMS (Asia) missions is a major instance of space component in the fundamentally new paradigm aimed at integrating information on air quality from a wide variety of sources. Space-borne data on tropospheric composition from new generation satellites have a growing impact in this context because of their unprecedented quantity and quality, while merging with non-satellite measurements and other types of auxiliary data via state-of-the-art modelling capabilities remains essential to fit the purpose of highly accurate information made readily available at high temporal and spatial resolution, both in analysis and forecast mode. Proper and effective implementation of this paradigm poses severe challenges to science, technology and applications that must be addressed in a closely interconnected manner to pave the way to high quality products and innovative services. Novel ideas and tools built on these three pillars are currently under investigation in the AURORA (Advanced Ultraviolet Radiation and Ozone Retrieval for Applications) Horizon 2020 project of the European Commission. The primary goal of the project is the proof of concept of a synergistic approach to the exploitation of Sentinel-4 and -5 Ozone measurements in the UV, Visible and Thermal Infrared based on the combination of an innovative data fusion method and assimilation models. The scientific objective shares the same level of priority with the technological effort to realize a prototype data processor capable to manage the full data processing chain and with the development of two downstream applications for demonstration purposes. The presentation offers a first insight in mid-term results of the project, which is mostly based on the use of synthetic data from the atmospheric Sentinels. Specific focus is given to the role of satellite data synergy in integrated systems for air quality monitoring, in particular when testing the impact of TEMPO and GEMS Ozone data in AURORA. As a further element relevant for the integration of multiple data sources, we describe the AIR-Portal application, which is going to combine AURORA partial columns of tropospheric ozone with other source of information for air quality analysis and forecast in metropolitan areas.

Dynamical characterization of the 2010/2011 winter Arctic ozone depletion replaced in a climatologic context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, R.; Huret, N.; Hauchecorne, A.; Drouin, M.

2011-12-01

The 2010/2011 stratospheric winter has recorded one of the strongest ozone depletion in the Arctic region since observations began. Such phenomenon is currently very difficult to predict as it strongly depends on winter dynamical conditions. The aim of this study is to characterize winter/spring dynamical stratospheric conditions and the ozone depletion yield. We used the AURA-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Era-Interim meteorological fields and the results of the potential vorticity contour advection model MIMOSA (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection). Dynamical processes associated with the 2010/2011 winter have been investigated and replaced in a climatologic context by comparing this winter to previous similar and different winter/spring seasons over the last 20 years. Preliminary results show that the polar night jet in 2010/2011 was of an extraordinary strength during February-March, as for the same period in 1995/1996 where the ozone depletion was close to 30 %. Using MIMOSA model, we also show that the polar vortex during February-March 2010/2011 was more centred above the pole than the climatologic location. Wave activity and heat fluxes deduced from ECMWF data allow us to evaluate the specific conditions encountered during this 2010/2011 winter and mechanisms which lead to such extreme situation.

Evidence of Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport Within a Mesoscale Model and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer Total Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, Mark A.; Stanford, John L.

2001-01-01

We evaluate evidence for stratospheric mass transport into, and mass remaining in, the troposphere during an intense midlatitude cyclone. Mesoscale forecast model analysis fields from the Mesoscale Analysis and Prediction System were matched with total ozone observations from the Total Ozone Measurement Spectrometer. Combined with parcel back trajectory calculations, the analyses imply that two mechanisms contributed to the mass exchange: (1) An area of dynamically induced exchange was observed on the cyclone's southern edge. Parcels originally in the stratosphere crossed the jet core and were diluted through turbulent mixing with tropospheric air; (2) Diabetic effects reduced parcel potential vorticity (PC) for trajectories traversing precipitation regions, creating a 'PV hole' signature in the center of the cyclone. Air with characteristics of ozone and water vapor found in the lower stratosphere remained in the troposphere. The strength of the latter process may be unusual. Combined with other research, these results suggest that precipitation-induced diabetic effects can significantly modify (either decreasing or increasing) parcel potential vorticity, depending on parcel trajectory configuration with respect to maximum heating regions and jet core. The diabetic heating effect on stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is more important to tropopause erosion than to altering parcel trajectories. In addition, these results underline the importance of using not only PC but also chemical constituents for diagnoses of STE.

Changing Conditions in the Arctic: An Analysis of 45 years of Tropospheric Ozone Measurements at Barrow Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClure-Begley, A.; Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; Crepinsek, S.; Jefferson, A.; Emmons, L. K.; Oltmans, S. J.

2017-12-01

In order to understand the impact of climate on local bio-systems, understanding the changes to the atmospheric composition and processes in the Arctic boundary layer and free troposphere is imperative. In the Arctic, many conditions influence tropospheric ozone variability such as: seasonal halogen caused depletion events, long range transport of pollutants from mid-northern latitudes, compounds released from wildfires, and different meteorological conditions. The Barrow station in Utqiagvik, Alaska has collected continuous measurements of ground-level ozone since 1973. This unique long-term time series allows for analysis of the influence of a rapidly changing climate on ozone conditions in this region. Specifically, this study analyzes the frequency of enhanced ozone episodes over time and provides in depth analysis of periods of positive deviations from the expected conditions. To discern the contribution of different pollutant sources to observed ozone variability, co-located measurements of aerosols, carbon monoxide, and meteorological conditions are used. In addition, the NCAR Mozart-4/MOPITT Chemical Forecast model and NOAA Hysplit back-trajectory analysis provide information on transport patterns to the Arctic and confirmation of the emission sources that influenced the observed conditions. These anthropogenic influences on ozone variability in and below the boundary layer are essential for developing an understanding of the interaction of climate change and the bio-systems in the Arctic.

Developing air quality forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

2012-05-01

Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects.

PubMed

Tagaris, Efthimios; Liao, Kuo-Jen; Delucia, Anthony J; Deck, Leland; Amar, Praveen; Russell, Armistead G

2009-07-01

The potential health impact of ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations modulated by climate change over the United States is investigated using combined atmospheric and health modeling. Regional air quality modeling for 2001 and 2050 was conducted using CMAQ Modeling System with meteorology from the GISS Global Climate Model, downscaled regionally using MM5,keeping boundary conditions of air pollutants, emission sources, population, activity levels, and pollution controls constant. BenMap was employed to estimate the air pollution health outcomes at the county, state, and national level for 2050 caused by the effect of meteorology on future ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. The changes in calculated annual mean PM2.5 concentrations show a relatively modest change with positive and negative responses (increasing PM2.5 levels across the northeastern U.S.) although average ozone levels slightly decrease across the northern sections of the U.S., and increase across the southern tier. Results suggest that climate change driven air quality-related health effects will be adversely affected in more then 2/3 of the continental U.S. Changes in health effects induced by PM2.5 dominate compared to those caused by ozone. PM2.5-induced premature mortality is about 15 times higher then that due to ozone. Nationally the analysis suggests approximately 4000 additional annual premature deaths due to climate change impacts on PM2.5 vs 300 due to climate change-induced ozone changes. However, the impacts vary spatially. Increased premature mortality due to elevated ozone concentrations will be offset by lower mortality from reductions in PM2.5 in 11 states. Uncertainties related to different emissions projections used to simulate future climate, and the uncertainties forecasting the meteorology, are large although there are potentially important unaddressed uncertainties (e.g., downscaling, speciation, interaction, exposure, and concentration-response function of the human health studies).

Meteorological Modeling of Wintertime Cold Air Pool Stagnation Episodes in the Uintah and Salt Lake Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosman, E.; Horel, J.; Blaylock, B. K.; Foster, C.

2014-12-01

High wintertime ozone concentrations in rural areas associated with oil and gas development and high particulate concentrations in urban areas have become topics of increasing concern in the Western United States, as both primary and secondary pollutants become trapped within stable wintertime boundary layers. While persistent cold air pools that enable such poor wintertime air quality are typically associated with high pressure aloft and light winds, the complex physical processes that contribute to the formation, maintenance, and decay of persistent wintertime temperature inversions are only partially understood. In addition, obtaining sufficiently accurate numerical weather forecasts and meteorological simulations of cold air pools for input into chemical models remains a challenge. This study examines the meteorological processes associated with several wintertime pollution episodes in Utah's Uintah and Salt Lake Basins using numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations and observations collected from the Persistent Cold Air Pool and Uintah Basin Ozone Studies. The temperature, vertical structure, and winds within these cold air pools was found to vary as a function of snow cover, snow albedo, land use, cloud cover, large-scale synoptic flow, and episode duration. We evaluate the sensitivity of key atmospheric features such as stability, planetary boundary layer depth, local wind flow patterns and transport mechanisms to variations in surface forcing, clouds, and synoptic flow. Finally, noted deficiencies in the meteorological models of cold air pools and modifications to the model snow and microphysics treatment that have resulted in improved cold pool simulations will be presented.

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCarty, Will; Jedlovec, Gary; Miller, Timothy L.

2009-01-01

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

Observations and impacts of transported Canadian wildfire smoke on ozone and aerosol air quality in the Maryland region on June 9-12, 2015.

PubMed

Dreessen, Joel; Sullivan, John; Delgado, Ruben

2016-09-01

Canadian wildfire smoke impacted air quality across the northern Mid-Atlantic (MA) of the United States during June 9-12, 2015. A multiday exceedance of the new 2015 70-ppb National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (O3) followed, resulting in Maryland being incompliant with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) revised 2015 O3 NAAQS. Surface in situ, balloon-borne, and remote sensing observations monitored the impact of the wildfire smoke at Maryland air quality monitoring sites. At peak smoke concentrations in Maryland, wildfire-attributable volatile organic compounds (VOCs) more than doubled, while non-NOx oxides of nitrogen (NOz) tripled, suggesting long range transport of NOx within the smoke plume. Peak daily average PM2.5 was 32.5 µg m(-3) with large fractions coming from black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), with a synonymous increase in carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations. Measurements indicate that smoke tracers at the surface were spatially and temporally correlated with maximum 8-hr O3 concentrations in the MA, all which peaked on June 11. Despite initial smoke arrival late on June 9, 2015, O3 production was inhibited due to ultraviolet (UV) light attenuation, lower temperatures, and nonoptimal surface layer composition. Comparison of Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model surface O3 forecasts to observations suggests 14 ppb additional O3 due to smoke influences in northern Maryland. Despite polluted conditions, observations of a nocturnal low-level jet (NLLJ) and Chesapeake Bay Breeze (BB) were associated with decreases in O3 in this case. While infrequent in the MA, wildfire smoke may be an increasing fractional contribution to high-O3 days, particularly in light of increased wildfire frequency in a changing climate, lower regional emissions, and tighter air quality standards. The presented event demonstrates how a single wildfire event associated with an ozone exceedance of the NAAQS can prevent the Baltimore region from complying with lower ozone standards. This relatively new problem in Maryland is due to regional reductions in NOx emissions that led to record low numbers of ozone NAAQS violations in the last 3 years. This case demonstrates the need for adequate means to quantify and justify ozone impacts from wildfires, which can only be done through the use of observationally based models. The data presented may also improve future air quality forecast models.

Copernicus atmospheric service for stratospheric ozone: validation and intercomparison of four near real-time analyses, 2009-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefever, K.; van der A, R.; Baier, F.; Christophe, Y.; Errera, Q.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Inness, A.; Jones, L.; Lambert, J.-C.; Langerock, B.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.; Wagner, A.; Chabrillat, S.

2014-05-01

This paper evaluates the performance of the stratospheric ozone analyses delivered in near real time by the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project during the 3 year period between September 2009 and September 2012. Ozone analyses produced by four different chemistry transport models and data assimilation techniques are examined: the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) coupled to MOZART-3 (IFS-MOZART), the BIRA-IASB Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE), the DLR/RIU Synoptic Analysis of Chemical Constituents by Advanced Data Assimilation (SACADA), and the KNMI Data Assimilation Model based on Transport Model version 3 (TM3DAM). The assimilated satellite ozone retrievals differed for each system: SACADA and TM3DAM assimilated only total ozone observations, BASCOE assimilated profiles for ozone and some related species, while IFS-MOZART assimilated both types of ozone observations. The stratospheric ozone analyses are compared to independent ozone observations from ground-based instruments, ozone sondes and the ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer) satellite instrument. All analyses show total column values which are generally in good agreement with groundbased observations (biases <5%) and a realistic seasonal cycle. The only exceptions are found for BASCOE which systematically underestimates total ozone in the Tropics with about 7-10% at Chengkung (Taiwan, 23.1° N/121.365° E), resulting from the fact that BASCOE does not include any tropospheric processes, and for SACADA which overestimates total ozone in the absence of UV observations for the assimilation. Due to the large weight given to column observations in the assimilation procedure, IFS-MOZART is able to reproduce total column observations very well, but alternating positive and negative biases compared to ozonesonde and ACE-FTS satellite data are found in the vertical as well as an overestimation of 30 to 60% in the polar lower stratosphere during ozone depletion events. The assimilation of near real-time (NRT) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) profiles which only go down to 68 hPa is not able to correct for the deficiency of the underlying MOZART model, which may be related to the applied meteorological fields. Biases of BASCOE compared to ozonesonde or ACE-FTS ozone profiles do not exceed 10% over the entire vertical stratospheric range, thanks to the good performance of the model in ozone hole conditions and the assimilation of offline MLS profiles going down to 215 hPa. TM3DAM provides very realistic total ozone columns, but is not designed to provide information on the vertical distribution of ozone. Compared to ozonesondes and ACE-FTS satellite data, SACADA performs best in the Arctic, but shows large biases (>50%) for ozone in the lower stratosphere in the Tropics and in the Antarctic, especially during ozone hole conditions. This study shows that ozone analyses with realistic total ozone column densities do not necessarily yield good agreement with the observed ozone profiles. It also shows the large benefit obtained from the assimilation of a single limb-scanning instrument (Aura MLS) with a high density of observations. Hence even state-of-the-art models of stratospheric chemistry still require the assimilation of limb observations for a correct representation of the vertical distribution of ozone in the stratosphere.

Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

2006-10-01

A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations.

Lagrangian Aerosol and Ozone Precursor Forecasts Utilizing NASA Aura OMI NO2 and NOAA GOES-GASP AOD Observations

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past decade, the remote sensing of trace gases and aerosols from space has dramatically improved. The emergence and application of these measurements adds a new dimension to air quality Management and forecasting by enabling consistent observations of pollutants over l...

EMC: Air Quality Forecast Home page

Science.gov Websites

archive NAM Verification Meteorology Error Time Series EMC NAM Spatial Maps Real Time Mesoscale Analysis Precipitation verification NAQFC VERIFICATION CMAQ Ozone & PM Error Time Series AOD Error Time Series HYSPLIT Smoke forecasts vs GASP satellite Dust and Smoke Error Time Series HYSPLIT WCOSS Upgrade (July

Human-model hybrid Korean air quality forecasting system.

PubMed

Chang, Lim-Seok; Cho, Ara; Park, Hyunju; Nam, Kipyo; Kim, Deokrae; Hong, Ji-Hyoung; Song, Chang-Keun

2016-09-01

The Korean national air quality forecasting system, consisting of the Weather Research and Forecasting, the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions, and the Community Modeling and Analysis (CMAQ), commenced from August 31, 2013 with target pollutants of particulate matters (PM) and ozone. Factors contributing to PM forecasting accuracy include CMAQ inputs of meteorological field and emissions, forecasters' capacity, and inherent CMAQ limit. Four numerical experiments were conducted including two global meteorological inputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Unified Model (UM), two emissions from the Model Intercomparison Study Asia (MICS-Asia) and the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B) for the Northeast Asia with Clear Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) for South Korea, and data assimilation of the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Significant PM underpredictions by using both emissions were found for PM mass and major components (sulfate and organic carbon). CMAQ predicts PM2.5 much better than PM10 (NMB of PM2.5: -20~-25%, PM10: -43~-47%). Forecasters' error usually occurred at the next day of high PM event. Once CMAQ fails to predict high PM event the day before, forecasters are likely to dismiss the model predictions on the next day which turns out to be true. The best combination of CMAQ inputs is the set of UM global meteorological field, MICS-Asia and CAPSS 2010 emissions with the NMB of -12.3%, the RMSE of 16.6μ/m(3) and the R(2) of 0.68. By using MACC data as an initial and boundary condition, the performance skill of CMAQ would be improved, especially in the case of undefined coarse emission. A variety of methods such as ensemble and data assimilation are considered to improve further the accuracy of air quality forecasting, especially for high PM events to be comparable to for all cases. The growing utilization of the air quality forecast induced the public strongly to demand that the accuracy of the national forecasting be improved. In this study, we investigated the problems in the current forecasting as well as various alternatives to solve the problems. Such efforts to improve the accuracy of the forecast are expected to contribute to the protection of public health by increasing the availability of the forecast system.

Mid-latitude storm track variability and its influence on atmospheric composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

2013-12-01

Using the storm tracking algorithm, TRACK (Hodges, 1994, 1995, 1999), we have studied the behaviour of storm tracks in the North Atlantic basin, using 850-hPa relative vorticity from the ERA-Interim Re-analysis (Dee et al., 2011). We have correlated surface ozone measurements at rural coastal sites in Europe to the storm track data to explore the role mid-latitude cyclones and their transport of pollutants play in determining surface air quality in Western Europe. To further investigate this relationship, we have used the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition Climate (MACC) Re-analysis dataset (Inness et al., 2013) in TRACK. The MACC Re-analysis is a 10-year dataset which couples a chemistry transport model (Mozart-3; Stein 2009, 2012) to an extended version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). Storm tracks in the MACC Re-analysis compare well to the storm tracks using the ERA-Interim Re-analysis for the same 10-year period, as both are based on ECMWF IFSs. We also compare surface ozone values from MACC to surface ozone measurements previously studied. Using TRACK, we follow ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) through the life cycle of storms from North America to Western Europe. Along the storm tracks, we examine the distribution of CO and O3 within 6 degrees of the center of each storm and vertically at different pressure levels in the troposphere. We hope to better understand the mechanisms with which pollution is vented from the boundary layer to the free troposphere, as well as transport of pollutants to rural areas. Our hope is to give policy makers more detailed information on how climate variability associated with storm tracks between 1979-2013 may affect air quality in Northeast USA and Western Europe.

Variability of winter and summer surface ozone in Mexico City on the intraseasonal timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, Bradford S.; Raga, Graciela B.

2016-12-01

Surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City frequently exceed the Mexican standard and have proven difficult to forecast due to changes in meteorological conditions at its tropical location. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is largely responsible for intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Circulation patterns in the lower and upper troposphere and precipitation are associated with the oscillation as it progresses eastward around the planet. It is typically described by phases (labeled 1 through 8), which correspond to the broad longitudinal location of the active component of the oscillation with enhanced precipitation. In this study we evaluate the intraseasonal variability of winter and summer surface ozone concentrations in Mexico City, which was investigated over the period 1986-2014 to determine if there is a modulation by the MJO that would aid in the forecast of high-pollution episodes. Over 1 000 000 hourly observations of surface ozone from five stations around the metropolitan area were standardized and then binned by active phase of the MJO, with phase determined using the real-time multivariate MJO index. Highest winter ozone concentrations were found in Mexico City on days when the MJO was active and in phase 2 (over the Indian Ocean), and highest summer ozone concentrations were found on days when the MJO was active and in phase 6 (over the western Pacific Ocean). Lowest winter ozone concentrations were found during active MJO phase 8 (over the eastern Pacific Ocean), and lowest summer ozone concentrations were found during active MJO phase 1 (over the Atlantic Ocean). Anomalies of reanalysis-based cloud cover and UV-B radiation supported the observed variability in surface ozone in both summer and winter: MJO phases with highest ozone concentration had largest positive UV-B radiation anomalies and lowest cloud-cover fraction, while phases with lowest ozone concentration had largest negative UV-B radiation anomalies and highest cloud-cover fraction. Furthermore, geopotential height anomalies at 250 hPa favoring reduced cloudiness, and thus elevated surface ozone, were found in both seasons during MJO phases with above-normal ozone concentrations. Similar height anomalies at 250 hPa favoring enhanced cloudiness, and thus reduced surface ozone, were found in both seasons during MJO phases with below-normal ozone concentrations. These anomalies confirm a physical pathway for MJO modulation of surface ozone via modulation of the upper troposphere.

Dynamical contibution of Mean Potential Vorticity pseudo-observations derived from MetOp/GOME2 Ozone data into weather forecast, a Mediterranean High Precipitation Event study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sbii, Siham; Zazoui, Mimoun; Semane, Noureddine

2015-04-01

In the absence of observations covering the upper troposphere - lower stratophere, headquarters of several disturbances, and knowing that satellites are uniquely capable of providing uniform data coverage globally, a methodology is followed [1] to convert Total Column Ozone, observed by MetOp/GOME2, into pseudo-observations of Mean Potential Vorticity (MPV). The aim is to study the dynamical impact of Ozone data in the prediction of a Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Event observed during 28-29 September 2012 in the context of HYMEX1. This study builds on a previously described methodology [2] that generates numerical weather prediction model initial conditions from ozone data. Indeed, the assimilation of MPV in a 3D-var framework is based on a linear regression between observed Ozone and vertical integrated Ertel PV. The latter is calculated using dynamical fields from the moroccan operational limited area model ALADIN-MAROC according to [3]: δθ fp p0 -R δU δV P V = - gξaδp- g-R-(p )Cp [(δp-)2 + (δp-)2] (1) Where ξa is the vertical component of the absolute vorticity, U and V the horizontal wind components, θ the potential temperature, R gas constant, Cp specific heat at constant pressure, p the pressure, p0 a reference pressure, g the gravity and f is the Coriolis parameter. The MPV is estimated using the following expression: --1--∫ P2 M PV = P1 - P2 P P V.δp 1 (2) With P1 = 500hPa and P2 = 100hPa In the present study, the linear regression is performed over September 2012 with a correlation coefficient of 0.8265 and is described as follows: M P V = 5.314610- 2 *O3 - 13.445 (3) where O3 and MPV are given in Dobson Unit (DU) and PVU (1 PV U = 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1), respectively. It is found that the ozone-influenced upper-level initializing fields affect the precipitation forecast, as diagnosed by a comparison with the ECMWF model. References [1] S. Sbii, N. Semane, Y. Michel, P. Arbogast and M. Zazoui (2012). Using METOP/GOME-2 data and MSG ozone data as Potential Vorticity pseudo-observations, Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-8926, EGU General Assembly. [2] S. Sbii, M. Zazoui, N. Semane, Y. Michel and P. Arbogast (2013). Exploring the Potential Application of MetOp/GOME2 Ozone Data to Weather Analysis.IJCSI, Vol. 10, Issue 2, No 3, March 2013: 260-263. [3] Guerin, R., Desroziers, G. and Arbogast, P. (2006). 4D-Var analysis of potential vorticity pseudo-observations. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 132: 1283-1298.

North Atlantic Oscillation and pollutants variability in Europe: model analysis and measurements intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pausata, F.; Pozzoli, L.; Van Dingenen, R.; Vignati, E.; Cavalli, F.; Dentener, F. J.

2013-12-01

Ozone pollution and particulate matter (PM) represent a serious health and environmental problem. While ozone pollution is mostly produced by photochemistry in summer, PM is of main concern during winter. Both pollutants can be influenced nt only by local scale processes but also by long range transport driven by the atmospheric circulation and stratospheric ozone intrusions. We analyze the role of large scale atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic basin in determining surface ozone and PM concentrations over Europe. Here, we show, using ground station measurements and a coupled atmosphere-chemistry model simulation for the period 1980-2005, that with regard to ozone the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) does affect surface ozone concentrations - on a monthly timescale, over 10 ppbv in southwestern, central and northern Europe - during all seasons except fall. We find that the first Principal Component, computed from the time variation of the sea level pressure (SLP) field, detects the atmosphere circulation/ozone relationship not only in winter and spring but also during summer, when the atmospheric circulation weakens and regional photochemical processes peak. Given the NAO forecasting skill at intraseasonal time scale, the first Principal Component of the SLP field could be used as an indicator to identify areas more exposed to forthcoming ozone pollution events. Finally, our results suggest that the increasing baseline ozone in western and northern Europe during the 1990s could be related to the prevailing positive phase of the NAO in that period. With regard to PM, our study shows that in winter the NAO modulates surface PM concentrations accounting in average up to 30% of the total PM variability. During positive NAO phases, positive PM anomalies occur over southern Europe, and negative anomalies in central-northern Europe. A positve shift of the NAO mean states, hence, leads to an increase in cardiac and resipratory morbidity related to PM exposure in the Mediterranean countries with up to over 5000 more deaths per 20 million people for a 2000 emission inventory.

An unusual stratospheric ozone decrease in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics linked to isentropic air-mass transport as observed over Irene (25.5° S, 28.1° E) in mid-May 2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semane, N.; Bencherif, H.; Morel, B.; Hauchecorne, A.; Diab, R. D.

2006-06-01

A prominent ozone minimum of less than 240 Dobson Units (DU) was observed over Irene (25.5° S, 28.1° E), a subtropical site in the Southern Hemisphere, by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) during May 2002 with an extremely low ozone value of less than 219 DU recorded on 12 May, as compared to the climatological mean value of 249 DU for May between 1999 and 2005. In this study, the vertical structure of this ozone minimum is examined using ozonesonde measurements performed over Irene on 15 May 2002, when the total ozone (as given by TOMS) was about 226 DU. It is shown that this ozone minimum is of Antarctic polar origin with a low-ozone layer in the middle stratosphere above 625 K (where the climatological ozone gradient points equatorward), and is of tropical origin with a low-ozone layer in the lower stratosphere between the 400-K and 450-K isentropic levels (where the climatological ozone gradient is reversed). The upper and lower depleted parts of the ozonesonde profile for 15 May are then respectively attributed to equatorward and poleward transport of low-ozone air toward the subtropics in the Southern Hemisphere. The tropical air moving over Irene and the polar one passing over the same area associated with enhanced planetary-wave activity are successfully simulated using the high-resolution advection contour model of Ertel's potential vorticity MIMOSA. The unusual distribution of ozone over Irene during May 2002 in the middle stratosphere is connected to the anomalously pre-conditioned structure of the polar vortex at that time of the year. The winter stratospheric wave driving leading to the ozone minimum is investigated by means of the Eliassen-Palm flux computed from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA40 re-analyses.

Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model for Simulating Winter Ozone Formation in the Uinta Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matichuk, Rebecca; Tonnesen, Gail; Luecken, Deborah; Gilliam, Rob; Napelenok, Sergey L.; Baker, Kirk R.; Schwede, Donna; Murphy, Ben; Helmig, Detlev; Lyman, Seth N.; Roselle, Shawn

2017-12-01

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate a 10 day high-ozone episode observed during the 2013 Uinta Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS). The baseline model had a large negative bias when compared to ozone (O3) and volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements across the basin. Contrary to other wintertime Uinta Basin studies, predicted nitrogen oxides (NOx) were typically low compared to measurements. Increases to oil and gas VOC emissions resulted in O3 predictions closer to observations, and nighttime O3 improved when reducing the deposition velocity for all chemical species. Vertical structures of these pollutants were similar to observations on multiple days. However, the predicted surface layer VOC mixing ratios were generally found to be underestimated during the day and overestimated at night. While temperature profiles compared well to observations, WRF was found to have a warm temperature bias and too low nighttime mixing heights. Analyses of more realistic snow heat capacity in WRF to account for the warm bias and vertical mixing resulted in improved temperature profiles, although the improved temperature profiles seldom resulted in improved O3 profiles. While additional work is needed to investigate meteorological impacts, results suggest that the uncertainty in the oil and gas emissions contributes more to the underestimation of O3. Further, model adjustments based on a single site may not be suitable across all sites within the basin.

Forecasting air quality time series using deep learning.

PubMed

Freeman, Brian S; Taylor, Graham; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Thé, Jesse

2018-04-13

This paper presents one of the first applications of deep learning (DL) techniques to predict air pollution time series. Air quality management relies extensively on time series data captured at air monitoring stations as the basis of identifying population exposure to airborne pollutants and determining compliance with local ambient air standards. In this paper, 8 hr averaged surface ozone (O 3 ) concentrations were predicted using deep learning consisting of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM). Hourly air quality and meteorological data were used to train and forecast values up to 72 hours with low error rates. The LSTM was able to forecast the duration of continuous O 3 exceedances as well. Prior to training the network, the dataset was reviewed for missing data and outliers. Missing data were imputed using a novel technique that averaged gaps less than eight time steps with incremental steps based on first-order differences of neighboring time periods. Data were then used to train decision trees to evaluate input feature importance over different time prediction horizons. The number of features used to train the LSTM model was reduced from 25 features to 5 features, resulting in improved accuracy as measured by Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Parameter sensitivity analysis identified look-back nodes associated with the RNN proved to be a significant source of error if not aligned with the prediction horizon. Overall, MAE's less than 2 were calculated for predictions out to 72 hours. Novel deep learning techniques were used to train an 8-hour averaged ozone forecast model. Missing data and outliers within the captured data set were replaced using a new imputation method that generated calculated values closer to the expected value based on the time and season. Decision trees were used to identify input variables with the greatest importance. The methods presented in this paper allow air managers to forecast long range air pollution concentration while only monitoring key parameters and without transforming the data set in its entirety, thus allowing real time inputs and continuous prediction.

NOAA's National Weather Service/Environmental Protection Agency - United

Science.gov Websites

Integration Image | Loop View | Daily View | Point Guidance | | Experimental Air Quality Guidance | Product Map To View Additional Guidance Graphic of Air Quality Forecast Guidance for the CONUS Mouse over or Image Alaska 1-Hr Average Ozone Concentration Image Hawaii 1-Hr Average Ozone Concentration Image 8-Hr

Simple statistical bias correction techniques greatly improve moderate resolution air quality forecast at station level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curci, Gabriele; Falasca, Serena

2017-04-01

Deterministic air quality forecast is routinely carried out at many local Environmental Agencies in Europe and throughout the world by means of eulerian chemistry-transport models. The skill of these models in predicting the ground-level concentrations of relevant pollutants (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter) a few days ahead has greatly improved in recent years, but it is not yet always compliant with the required quality level for decision making (e.g. the European Commission has set a maximum uncertainty of 50% on daily values of relevant pollutants). Post-processing of deterministic model output is thus still regarded as a useful tool to make the forecast more reliable. In this work, we test several bias correction techniques applied to a long-term dataset of air quality forecasts over Europe and Italy. We used the WRF-CHIMERE modelling system, which provides operational experimental chemical weather forecast at CETEMPS (http://pumpkin.aquila.infn.it/forechem/), to simulate the years 2008-2012 at low resolution over Europe (0.5° x 0.5°) and moderate resolution over Italy (0.15° x 0.15°). We compared the simulated dataset with available observation from the European Environmental Agency database (AirBase) and characterized model skill and compliance with EU legislation using the Delta tool from FAIRMODE project (http://fairmode.jrc.ec.europa.eu/). The bias correction techniques adopted are, in order of complexity: (1) application of multiplicative factors calculated as the ratio of model-to-observed concentrations averaged over the previous days; (2) correction of the statistical distribution of model forecasts, in order to make it similar to that of the observations; (3) development and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS) regression equations. We illustrate differences and advantages/disadvantages of the three approaches. All the methods are relatively easy to implement for other modelling systems.

Evaluation of data assimilation techniques for a mesoscale meteorological model and their effects on air quality model results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amicarelli, A.; Gariazzo, C.; Finardi, S.; Pelliccioni, A.; Silibello, C.

2008-05-01

Data assimilation techniques are methods to limit the growth of errors in a dynamical model by allowing observations distributed in space and time to force (nudge) model solutions. They have become common for meteorological model applications in recent years, especially to enhance weather forecast and to support air-quality studies. In order to investigate the influence of different data assimilation techniques on the meteorological fields produced by RAMS model, and to evaluate their effects on the ozone and PM10 concentrations predicted by FARM model, several numeric experiments were conducted over the urban area of Rome, Italy, during a summer episode.

Ground-level ozone pollution and its health impacts in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Huan; Liu, Shuai; Xue, Boru; Lv, Zhaofeng; Meng, Zhihang; Yang, Xiaofan; Xue, Tao; Yu, Qiao; He, Kebin

2018-01-01

In recent years, ground-level ozone pollution in China has become an increasingly prominent problem. This study simulated and analyzed spatiotemporal distribution of ozone and exposure level by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models and monitoring data from 1516 national air quality monitoring stations in China during 2015. The simulation results show that the Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region had relatively high average annual concentrations of ozone. The regions with more than 10% nonattainment days of 160 μg/m3 (daily maximum 8-h) are mainly concentrated in BTH, Shandong Peninsula and YRD, where large seasonal variations were also found. Exposure levels were calculated based on population data and simulated ozone concentrations. The cumulative population exposed to daily maximum 8-h concentration greater than or equal to 100 μg/m3 was 816.04 million, 61.17% of the total. Three methods were used to estimate the mortality of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to ozone. A comparative study using different exposure concentrations and threshold concentrations found large variations among these methods, although they were all peer-reviewed methods. The estimated mortality of COPD caused by ozone in China in 2015 ranged from 55341 to 80280, which mainly distributed in Beijing, Shandong, Henan, Hubei and Sichuan Province, the YRD and PRD region.

The Impact of Withholding Observations from TOMS or SBUV Instruments on the GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, Ovanka; Riishojgaard, Lars Peter; Rood, Richard B.

2000-01-01

In a data assimilation system (DAS), model forecast atmospheric fields, observations and their respective statistics are combined in an attempt to produce the best estimate of these fields. Ozone observations from two instruments are assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ozone DAS: the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument. The assimilated observations are complementary; TOMS provides a global daily coverage of total column ozone, without profile information, while SBUV measures ozone profiles and total column ozone at nadir only. The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the ozone assimilation system in the absence of observations from one of the instruments as it can happen in the event of a failure of an instrument or when there are problems with an instrument for a limited time. Our primary concern is for the performance of the GEOS ozone DAS when it is used in the operational mode to provide near real time analyzed ozone fields in support of instruments on the Terra satellite. In addition, we are planning to produce a longer term ozone record by assimilating historical data. We want to quantify the differences in the assimilated ozone fields that are caused by the changes in the TOMS or SBUV observing network. Our primary interest is in long term and large scale features visible in global statistics of analysis fields, such as differences in the zonal mean of assimilated ozone fields or comparisons with independent observations, While some drifts in assimilated fields occur immediately, after assimilating just one day of different observations, the others develop slowly over several months. Thus, we are also interested in the length of time, which is determined from time series, that is needed for significant changes to take place.

Impact of ozone observations on the structure of a tropical cyclone using coupled atmosphere-chemistry data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, S.; Park, S. K.; Zupanski, M.

2015-04-01

Since the air quality forecast is related to both chemistry and meteorology, the coupled atmosphere-chemistry data assimilation (DA) system is essential to air quality forecasting. Ozone (O3) plays an important role in chemical reactions and is usually assimilated in chemical DA. In tropical cyclones (TCs), O3 usually shows a lower concentration inside the eyewall and an elevated concentration around the eye, impacting atmospheric as well as chemical variables. To identify the impact of O3 observations on TC structure, including atmospheric and chemical information, we employed the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) with an ensemble-based DA algorithm - the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF). For a TC case that occurred over the East Asia, our results indicate that the ensemble forecast is reasonable, accompanied with larger background state uncertainty over the TC, and also over eastern China. Similarly, the assimilation of O3 observations impacts atmospheric and chemical variables near the TC and over eastern China. The strongest impact on air quality in the lower troposphere was over China, likely due to the pollution advection. In the vicinity of the TC, however, the strongest impact on chemical variables adjustment was at higher levels. The impact on atmospheric variables was similar in both over China and near the TC. The analysis results are validated using several measures that include the cost function, root-mean-squared error with respect to observations, and degrees of freedom for signal (DFS). All measures indicate a positive impact of DA on the analysis - the cost function and root mean square error have decreased by 16.9 and 8.87%, respectively. In particular, the DFS indicates a strong positive impact of observations in the TC area, with a weaker maximum over northeast China.

Modelling two-way interactions between atmospheric pollution and weather using high-resolution GEM-MACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makar, Paul; Gong, Wanmin; Pabla, Balbir; Cheung, Philip; Milbrandt, Jason; Gravel, Sylvie; Moran, Michael; Gilbert, Samuel; Zhang, Junhua; Zheng, Qiong

2013-04-01

The Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model is the source of the Canadian government's operational numerical weather forecast guidance, and GEM-MACH is the Canadian operational air-quality forecast model. GEM-MACH comprises GEM and the 'Modelling Air-quality and Chemistry' module, a gas-phase, aqueous-phase and aerosol chemistry and microphysics subroutine package called from within GEM's physics module. The present operational GEM-MACH model is "on-line" (both chemistry and meteorology are part of the same modelling structure) but is not fully coupled (weather variables are provided as inputs to the chemistry, but the chemical variables are not used to modify the weather). In this work, we describe modifications made to GEM-MACH as part of the 2nd phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative, in order to bring the model to a fully coupled status and present the results of initial tests comparing uncoupled and coupled versions of the model to observations for a high-resolution forecasting system. Changes to GEM's cloud microphysics and radiative transfer packages were carried out to allow two-way coupling. The cloud microphysics package used here is the Milbrandt-Yau 2-moment (MY2) bulk microphysics scheme, which solves prognostic equations for the total droplet number concentration and the mass mixing ratios of six hydrometeor categories. Here, we have replaced the original cloud condensation nucleation parameterization of MY2 (empirically relating supersaturation and CCN number) with the aerosol activation scheme of Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (2002). The latter scheme makes use of the particle size and speciation distribution of GEM-MACH's chemistry code as well as meteorological inputs to predict the number of aerosol particles activated to form cloud droplets, which is then used in the MY2 microphysics. The radiative transfer routines of GEM assume a default constant concentration aerosol profile between the surface and 1500m, and a single set of optical properties for extinction, single scattering albedo, and asymmetry factor. Ozone in GEM is taken from a default 2D (latitude-height) monthly climatology. We have replaced the ozone below the model top with the ozone calculated from GEM-MACH's chemistry, and the default optical parameters associated with particulate matter have been replaced by those calculated with a Mie scattering algorithm. These changes were found to have a significant local impact on both weather and air-quality predictions for short-term test runs of 24 hours duration. In that particular case, the maximum number concentration of cloud droplets decreased by an order of magnitude, while the number of raindrops increased by an order of magnitude and changed in spatial distribution, but surface rainfall was found to decrease. The differences in meteorology had a profound effect on local pollutant plume concentrations at specific locations and times. We compare results over a longer time period, using two parallel forecast systems, one with feedbacks between meteorology and chemistry, one without. Both nest GEM-MACH from a North American domain (10 km horizontal grid spacing) to a 1535 x 1360 km, 2.5 km domain. These systems will be evaluated against monitoring networks within the high resolution domain.

Tropospheric chemistry in the integrated forecasting system of ECMWF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flemming, J.; Huijnen, V.; Arteta, J.; Bechtold, P.; Beljaars, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Josse, B.; Diamantakis, M.; Engelen, R. J.; Gaudel, A.; Inness, A.; Jones, L.; Katragkou, E.; Marecal, V.; Peuch, V.-H.; Richter, A.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.; Tsikerdekis, A.

2014-11-01

A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new chemistry modules complement the aerosol modules of the IFS for atmospheric composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS for chemistry supersedes a coupled system, in which the Chemical Transport Model (CTM) Model for OZone and Related chemical Tracers 3 was two-way coupled to the IFS (IFS-MOZART). This paper contains a description of the new on-line implementation, an evaluation with observations and a comparison of the performance of C-IFS with MOZART and with a re-analysis of atmospheric composition produced by IFS-MOZART within the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The chemical mechanism of C-IFS is an extended version of the Carbon Bond 2005 (CB05) chemical mechanism as implemented in the CTM Transport Model 5 (TM5). CB05 describes tropospheric chemistry with 54 species and 126 reactions. Wet deposition and lightning nitrogen monoxide (NO) emissions are modelled in C-IFS using the detailed input of the IFS physics package. A one-year simulation by C-IFS, MOZART and the MACC re-analysis is evaluated against ozonesondes, carbon monoxide (CO) aircraft profiles, European surface observations of ozone (O3), CO, sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as well as satellite retrievals of CO, tropospheric NO2 and formaldehyde. Anthropogenic emissions from the MACC/CityZen (MACCity) inventory and biomass burning emissions from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) data set were used in the simulations by both C-IFS and MOZART. C-IFS (CB05) showed an improved performance with respect to MOZART for CO, upper tropospheric O3, winter time SO2 and was of a similar accuracy for other evaluated species. C-IFS (CB05) is about ten times more computationally efficient than IFS-MOZART.

Tropospheric chemistry in the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flemming, J.; Huijnen, V.; Arteta, J.; Bechtold, P.; Beljaars, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Diamantakis, M.; Engelen, R. J.; Gaudel, A.; Inness, A.; Jones, L.; Josse, B.; Katragkou, E.; Marecal, V.; Peuch, V.-H.; Richter, A.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.; Tsikerdekis, A.

2015-04-01

A representation of atmospheric chemistry has been included in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The new chemistry modules complement the aerosol modules of the IFS for atmospheric composition, which is named C-IFS. C-IFS for chemistry supersedes a coupled system in which chemical transport model (CTM) Model for OZone and Related chemical Tracers 3 was two-way coupled to the IFS (IFS-MOZART). This paper contains a description of the new on-line implementation, an evaluation with observations and a comparison of the performance of C-IFS with MOZART and with a re-analysis of atmospheric composition produced by IFS-MOZART within the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project. The chemical mechanism of C-IFS is an extended version of the Carbon Bond 2005 (CB05) chemical mechanism as implemented in CTM Transport Model 5 (TM5). CB05 describes tropospheric chemistry with 54 species and 126 reactions. Wet deposition and lightning nitrogen monoxide (NO) emissions are modelled in C-IFS using the detailed input of the IFS physics package. A 1 year simulation by C-IFS, MOZART and the MACC re-analysis is evaluated against ozonesondes, carbon monoxide (CO) aircraft profiles, European surface observations of ozone (O3), CO, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as well as satellite retrievals of CO, tropospheric NO2 and formaldehyde. Anthropogenic emissions from the MACC/CityZen (MACCity) inventory and biomass burning emissions from the Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) data set were used in the simulations by both C-IFS and MOZART. C-IFS (CB05) showed an improved performance with respect to MOZART for CO, upper tropospheric O3, and wintertime SO2, and was of a similar accuracy for other evaluated species. C-IFS (CB05) is about 10 times more computationally efficient than IFS-MOZART.

Air Quality Modeling Using the NASA GEOS-5 Multispecies Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Christoph A.; Pawson, Steven; Wargan, Krzysztof; Weir, Brad

2018-01-01

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) has been expanded to include chemically reactive tropospheric trace gases including ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). This system combines model analyses from the GEOS-5 model with detailed atmospheric chemistry and observations from MLS (O3), OMI (O3 and NO2), and MOPITT (CO). We show results from a variety of assimilation test experiments, highlighting the improvements in the representation of model species concentrations by up to 50% compared to an assimilation-free control experiment. Taking into account the rapid chemical cycling of NO2 when applying the assimilation increments greatly improves assimilation skills for NO2 and provides large benefits for model concentrations near the surface. Analysis of the geospatial distribution of the assimilation increments suggest that the free-running model overestimates biomass burning emissions but underestimates lightning NOx emissions by 5-20%. We discuss the capability of the chemical data assimilation system to improve atmospheric composition forecasts through improved initial value and boundary condition inputs, particularly during air pollution events. We find that the current assimilation system meaningfully improves short-term forecasts (1-3 day). For longer-term forecasts more emphasis on updating the emissions instead of initial concentration fields is needed.

Investigating the links between ozone and organic aerosol chemistry in a biomass burning plume from a California chaparral fire

Treesearch

M. J. Alvarado; C. R. Lonsdale; R. J. Yokelson; S. K. Akagi; I. R. Burling; H. Coe; J. S. Craven; E. Fischer; G. R. McMeeking; J. H. Seinfeld; T. Soni; J. W. Taylor; D. R. Weise; C. E. Wold

2014-01-01

Within minutes after emission, rapid, complex photochemistry within a biomass burning smoke plume can cause large changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3) and organic aerosol (OA). Being able to understand and simulate this rapid chemical evolution under 5 a wide variety of conditions is a critical part of forecasting the impact of these fires...

Operational Use of the AIRS Total Column Ozone Retrievals Along with the RGB Air Mass Product as Part of the GOES-R Proving Ground

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folmer, Michael; Zavodsky, Bradley; Molthan, Andrew

2012-01-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) and Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provide short-term and medium-range forecast guidance of heavy precipitation, strong winds, and other features often associated with mid-latitude cyclones over both land and ocean. As a result, detection of factors that lead to rapid cyclogenesis and high wind events is key to improving forecast skill. One phenomenon that has been identified with these events is the stratospheric intrusion that occurs near tropopause folds. This allows for deep mixing near the top of the atmosphere where dry air high in ozone concentrations and potential vorticity descends (sometimes rapidly) deep into the mid-troposphere. Observations from satellites can aid in detection of these stratospheric air intrusions (SAI) regions. Specifically, multispectral composite imagery assign a variety of satellite spectral bands to the red, green, and blue (RGB) color components of imagery pixels and result in color combinations that can assist in the detection of dry stratospheric air associated with PV advection, which in turn may alert forecasters to the possibility of a rapidly strengthening storm system. Single channel or RGB satellite imagery lacks quantitative information about atmospheric moisture unless the sampled brightness temperatures or other data are converted to estimates of moisture via a retrieval process. Thus, complementary satellite observations are needed to capture a complete picture of a developing storm system. Here, total column ozone retrievals derived from a hyperspectral sounder are used to confirm the extent and magnitude of SAIs. Total ozone is a good proxy for defining locations and intensity of SAIs and has been used in studies evaluating that phenomenon (e.g. Tian et al. 2007, Knox and Schmidt 2005). Steep gradients in values of total ozone seen by satellites have been linked to stratosphere-troposphere exchange (WMO, 1985).

Stratospheric ozone measurements at Arosa (Switzerland): history and scientific relevance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staehelin, Johannes; Viatte, Pierre; Stübi, Rene; Tummon, Fiona; Peter, Thomas

2018-05-01

Climatic Observatory (LKO) in Arosa (Switzerland), marking the beginning of the world's longest series of total (or column) ozone measurements. They were driven by the recognition that atmospheric ozone is important for human health, as well as by scientific curiosity about what was, at the time, an ill characterised atmospheric trace gas. From around the mid-1950s to the beginning of the 1970s studies of high atmosphere circulation patterns that could improve weather forecasting was justification for studying stratospheric ozone. In the mid-1970s, a paradigm shift occurred when it became clear that the damaging effects of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), such as long-lived chlorofluorocarbons, needed to be documented. This justified continuing the ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone. Levels of ODSs peaked around the mid-1990s as a result of a global environmental policy to protect the ozone layer, implemented through the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its subsequent amendments and adjustments. Consequently, chemical destruction of stratospheric ozone started to slow around the mid-1990s. To some extent, this raises the question as to whether continued ozone observation is indeed necessary. In the last decade there has been a tendency to reduce the costs associated with making ozone measurements globally including at Arosa. However, the large natural variability in ozone on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual scales complicates the capacity for demonstrating the success of the Montreal Protocol. Chemistry-climate models also predict a super-recovery of the ozone layer at mid-latitudes in the second half of this century, i.e. an increase of ozone concentrations beyond pre-1970 levels, as a consequence of ongoing climate change. These factors, and identifying potentially unexpected stratospheric responses to climate change, support the continued need to document stratospheric ozone changes. This is particularly valuable at the Arosa site, due to the unique length of the observational record. This paper presents the evolution of the ozone layer, the history of international ozone research, and discusses the justification for the measurements in the past, present and into future.

Temporal development of the correlation between ozone and potential vorticity in the Arctic in the winters of 1988/1989, 1989/1990, and 1990/1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knudsen, Bjorn; Vondergathen, Peter; Braathen, Geir O.; Fabian, Rolf; Jorgensen, Torben S.; Kyro, Esko; Neuber, Roland; Rummukainen, Markku

1994-01-01

Ozone sonde data of the winters 1988/89, 1989/90, and 1990/91 from a group of Arctic stations are used in this study. The ozone mixing ratio on several isentropic surfaces is correlated to the potential vorticity (P). The P is based on the initialized analysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Similar investigations were made by Lait et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 521-524, March Supplement 1990) for the AASE campaign (January and February 1989), showing how the ozone mixing ratio varies with the distance to the edge of the vortex. Their findings are confirmed and extended to the following two winters. Furthermore we have studied the temporal development of the P-ozone correlations during these winters in order to recognize any chemical ozone depletion.

Use of Air Quality Observations by the National Air Quality Forecast Capability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Kondragunta, S.; Ruminski, M.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J. P.; Shafran, P.; Huang, H. C.; Dickerson, P.; Upadhayay, S.

2015-12-01

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operational predictions of ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States (U.S.) and predictions of airborne dust for continental U.S. are available at http://airquality.weather.gov/. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather predictions are combined with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to produce the ozone predictions and test fine particulate matter (PM2.5) predictions. The Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model provides smoke and dust predictions. Air quality observations constrain emissions used by NAQFC predictions. NAQFC NOx emissions from mobile sources were updated using National Emissions Inventory (NEI) projections for year 2012. These updates were evaluated over large U.S. cities by comparing observed changes in OMI NO2 observations and NOx measured by surface monitors. The rate of decrease in NOx emission projections from year 2005 to year 2012 is in good agreement with the observed changes over the same period. Smoke emissions rely on the fire locations detected from satellite observations obtained from NESDIS Hazard Mapping System (HMS). Dust emissions rely on a climatology of areas with a potential for dust emissions based on MODIS Deep Blue aerosol retrievals. Verification of NAQFC predictions uses AIRNow compilation of surface measurements for ozone and PM2.5. Retrievals of smoke from GOES satellites are used for verification of smoke predictions. Retrievals of dust from MODIS are used for verification of dust predictions. In summary, observations are the basis for the emissions inputs for NAQFC, they are critical for evaluation of performance of NAQFC predictions, and furthermore they are used in real-time testing of bias correction of PM2.5 predictions, as we continue to work on improving modeling and emissions important for representation of PM2.5.

Current and future background ozone simulations for Mexico using a multi-scale regional climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. K.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Avise, J. C.; Chung, S. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Streets, D. G.

2013-05-01

Global change will clearly have a significant impact on the environment. Among the concerns for future air quality in North America, intercontinental transport of pollution has become increasingly important. In this study, we examined the effect of projected changes in Asian emissions and emissions from lightning and wildfires to produce ozone background concentrations within Mexico and the continental US. This provides a basis for developing an understanding of North American background levels and how they may change in the future. Meteorological fields were downscaled from the results of the ECHAM5 global climate model using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two nested domains were employed, one covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America using 220 km grid cells (semi-hemispheric domain) and one covering the continental US and northern Mexico using 36 km grid cells. Meteorological results from WRF were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing tool, and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone concentrations for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) summertime conditions. The MEGAN model was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations. For the semi-hemispheric domain, year 2000 global emissions of gases (ozone precursors) from anthropogenic (outside of North America), natural, and biomass burning sources from the POET and EDGAR emission inventories were used. The global tabulation for black and organic carbon (BC and OC respectively) was obtained from Bond et al. (2004) For the future decade, the current emissions were projected to the year 2050 following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. Anthropogenic emissions from the US, Canada, and Mexico were omitted so that only global background concentrations, and local biogenic, wildfire, and lightning emissions were treated. In this paper, we focus on background ozone levels in Mexico due to changes in future climate, local biogenic emissions and global emissions.

Copernicus stratospheric ozone service, 2009-2012: validation, system intercomparison and roles of input data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefever, K.; van der A, R.; Baier, F.; Christophe, Y.; Errera, Q.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Inness, A.; Jones, L.; Lambert, J.-C.; Langerock, B.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.; Wagner, A.; Chabrillat, S.

2015-03-01

This paper evaluates and discusses the quality of the stratospheric ozone analyses delivered in near real time by the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project during the 3-year period between September 2009 and September 2012. Ozone analyses produced by four different chemical data assimilation (CDA) systems are examined and compared: the Integrated Forecast System coupled to the Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (IFS-MOZART); the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE); the Synoptic Analysis of Chemical Constituents by Advanced Data Assimilation (SACADA); and the Data Assimilation Model based on Transport Model version 3 (TM3DAM). The assimilated satellite ozone retrievals differed for each system; SACADA and TM3DAM assimilated only total ozone observations, BASCOE assimilated profiles for ozone and some related species, while IFS-MOZART assimilated both types of ozone observations. All analyses deliver total column values that agree well with ground-based observations (biases < 5%) and have a realistic seasonal cycle, except for BASCOE analyses, which underestimate total ozone in the tropics all year long by 7 to 10%, and SACADA analyses, which overestimate total ozone in polar night regions by up to 30%. The validation of the vertical distribution is based on independent observations from ozonesondes and the ACE-FTS (Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment - Fourier Transform Spectrometer) satellite instrument. It cannot be performed with TM3DAM, which is designed only to deliver analyses of total ozone columns. Vertically alternating positive and negative biases are found in the IFS-MOZART analyses as well as an overestimation of 30 to 60% in the polar lower stratosphere during polar ozone depletion events. SACADA underestimates lower stratospheric ozone by up to 50% during these events above the South Pole and overestimates it by approximately the same amount in the tropics. The three-dimensional (3-D) analyses delivered by BASCOE are found to have the best quality among the three systems resolving the vertical dimension, with biases not exceeding 10% all year long, at all stratospheric levels and in all latitude bands, except in the tropical lowermost stratosphere. The northern spring 2011 period is studied in more detail to evaluate the ability of the analyses to represent the exceptional ozone depletion event, which happened above the Arctic in March 2011. Offline sensitivity tests are performed during this month and indicate that the differences between the forward models or the assimilation algorithms are much less important than the characteristics of the assimilated data sets. They also show that IFS-MOZART is able to deliver realistic analyses of ozone both in the troposphere and in the stratosphere, but this requires the assimilation of observations from nadir-looking instruments as well as the assimilation of profiles, which are well resolved vertically and extend into the lowermost stratosphere.

Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J. M.; Yoshida, Y.; Duncan, B. N.; Bucsela, E. J.; Gleason, J. F.; Allen, D.; Pickering, K. E.

2007-01-01

We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2degx2.5deg. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NO(x) which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NO(y). Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the lightning production of NO(y) will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OM1 instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

Incorporating GOES Satellite Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) Retrievals to Improve Biogenic Emission Estimates in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui; White, Andrew T.; Pour Biazar, Arastoo; McNider, Richard T.; Cohan, Daniel S.

2018-01-01

This study examines the influence of insolation and cloud retrieval products from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) system on biogenic emission estimates and ozone simulations in Texas. Compared to surface pyranometer observations, satellite-retrieved insolation and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) values tend to systematically correct the overestimation of downwelling shortwave radiation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The correlation coefficient increases from 0.93 to 0.97, and the normalized mean error decreases from 36% to 21%. The isoprene and monoterpene emissions estimated by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature are on average 20% and 5% less, respectively, when PAR from the direct satellite retrieval is used rather than the control WRF run. The reduction in biogenic emission rates using satellite PAR reduced the predicted maximum daily 8 h ozone concentration by up to 5.3 ppbV over the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) region on some days. However, episode average ozone response is less sensitive, with a 0.6 ppbV decrease near DFW and 0.3 ppbV increase over East Texas. The systematic overestimation of isoprene concentrations in a WRF control case is partially corrected by using satellite PAR, which observes more clouds than are simulated by WRF. Further, assimilation of GOES-derived cloud fields in WRF improved CAMx model performance for ground-level ozone over Texas. Additionally, it was found that using satellite PAR improved the model's ability to replicate the spatial pattern of satellite-derived formaldehyde columns and aircraft-observed vertical profiles of isoprene.

Investigating the links between ozone and organic aerosol chemistry in a biomass burning plume from a prescribed fire in California chaparral

Treesearch

M.J. Alvarado; C.R. Lonsdale; R.J. Yokelson; S.K. Akagi; I.R. Burling; H. Coe; J.S. Craven; E. Fischer; G.R. McMeeking; J.H. Seinfeld; T. Soni; J.W. Taylor; D.R. Weise; C.E. Wold

2015-01-01

Within minutes after emission, complex photochemistry in biomass burning smoke plumes can cause large changes in the concentrations of ozone (O3) and organic aerosol (OA). Being able to understand and simulate this rapid chemical evolution under a wide variety of conditions is a critical part of forecasting the impact of these fires on air...

Expected ozone benefits of reducing nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units in the eastern United States.

PubMed

Vinciguerra, Timothy; Bull, Emily; Canty, Timothy; He, Hao; Zalewsky, Eric; Woodman, Michael; Aburn, George; Ehrman, Sheryl; Dickerson, Russell R

2017-03-01

On hot summer days in the eastern United States, electricity demand rises, mainly because of increased use of air conditioning. Power plants must provide this additional energy, emitting additional pollutants when meteorological conditions are primed for poor air quality. To evaluate the impact of summertime NO x emissions from coal-fired electricity generating units (EGUs) on surface ozone formation, we performed a series of sensitivity modeling forecast scenarios utilizing EPA 2018 version 6.0 emissions (2011 base year) and CMAQ v5.0.2. Coal-fired EGU NO x emissions were adjusted to match the lowest NO x rates observed during the ozone seasons (April 1-October 31) of 2005-2012 (Scenario A), where ozone decreased by 3-4 ppb in affected areas. When compared to the highest emissions rates during the same time period (Scenario B), ozone increased ∼4-7 ppb. NO x emission rates adjusted to match the observed rates from 2011 (Scenario C) increased ozone by ∼4-5 ppb. Finally in Scenario D, the impact of additional NO x reductions was determined by assuming installation of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) controls on all units lacking postcombustion controls; this decreased ozone by an additional 2-4 ppb relative to Scenario A. Following the announcement of a stricter 8-hour ozone standard, this analysis outlines a strategy that would help bring coastal areas in the mid-Atlantic region closer to attainment, and would also provide profound benefits for upwind states where most of the regional EGU NO x originates, even if additional capital investments are not made (Scenario A). With the 8-hr maximum ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) decreasing from 75 to 70 ppb, modeling results indicate that use of postcombustion controls on coal-fired power plants in 2018 could help keep regions in attainment. By operating already existing nitrogen oxide (NO x ) removal devices to their full potential, ozone could be significantly curtailed, achieving ozone reductions by up to 5 ppb in areas around the source of emission and immediately downwind. Ozone improvements are also significant (1-2 ppb) for areas affected by cross-state transport, especially Mid-Atlantic coast regions that had struggled to meet the 75 ppb standard.

Growth of soybean at future tropospheric ozone concentrations decreases canopy evapotranspiration and soil water depletion.

PubMed

Bernacchi, Carl J; Leakey, Andrew D B; Kimball, Bruce A; Ort, Donald R

2011-06-01

Tropospheric ozone is increasing in many agricultural regions resulting in decreased stomatal conductance and overall biomass of sensitive crop species. These physiological effects of ozone forecast changes in evapotranspiration and thus in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, particularly in intercontinental interiors. Soybean plots were fumigated with ozone to achieve concentrations above ambient levels over five growing seasons in open-air field conditions. Mean season increases in ozone concentrations ([O₃]) varied between growing seasons from 22 to 37% above background concentrations. The objective of this experiment was to examine the effects of future [O₃] on crop ecosystem energy fluxes and water use. Elevated [O₃] caused decreases in canopy evapotranspiration resulting in decreased water use by as much as 15% in high ozone years and decreased soil water removal. In addition, ozone treatment resulted in increased sensible heat flux in all years indicative of day-time increase in canopy temperature of up to 0.7 °C. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Validating the WRF-Chem model for wind energy applications using High Resolution Doppler Lidar data from a Utah 2012 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, M. J.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Banta, R. M.

2015-12-01

Models are important tools for assessing potential of wind energy sites, but the accuracy of these projections has not been properly validated. In this study, High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) data obtained with high temporal and spatial resolution at heights of modern turbine rotors were compared to output from the WRF-chem model in order to help improve the performance of the model in producing accurate wind forecasts for the industry. HRDL data were collected from January 23-March 1, 2012 during the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) field campaign. A model validation method was based on the qualitative comparison of the wind field images, time-series analysis and statistical analysis of the observed and modeled wind speed and direction, both for case studies and for the whole experiment. To compare the WRF-chem model output to the HRDL observations, the model heights and forecast times were interpolated to match the observed times and heights. Then, time-height cross-sections of the HRDL and WRF-Chem wind speed and directions were plotted to select case studies. Cross-sections of the differences between the observed and forecasted wind speed and directions were also plotted to visually analyze the model performance in different wind flow conditions. A statistical analysis includes the calculation of vertical profiles and time series of bias, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, and coefficient of determination between two datasets. The results from this analysis reveals where and when the model typically struggles in forecasting winds at heights of modern turbine rotors so that in the future the model can be improved for the industry.

Vertical distribution of Saharan dust over Rome (Italy): Comparison between 3-year model predictions and lidar soundings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kishcha, P.; Barnaba, F.; Gobbi, G. P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.

2005-03-01

Mineral dust particles loaded into the atmosphere from the Sahara desert represent one major factor affecting the Earth's radiative budget. Regular model-based forecasts of 3-D dust fields can be used in order to determine the dust radiative effect in climate models, in spite of the large gaps in observations of dust vertical profiles. In this study, dust forecasts by the Tel Aviv University (TAU) dust prediction system were compared to lidar observations to better evaluate the model's capabilities. The TAU dust model was initially developed at the University of Athens and later modified at Tel Aviv University. Dust forecasts are initialized with the aid of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI) measurements. The lidar soundings employed were collected at the outskirts of Rome, Italy (41.84°N, 12.64°E) during the high-dust activity season from March to June of the years 2001, 2002, and 2003. The lidar vertical profiles collected in the presence of dust were used for obtaining statistically significant reference parameters of dust layers over Rome and for model versus lidar comparison. The Barnaba and Gobbi (2001) approach was used in the current study to derive height-resolved dust volumes from lidar measurements of backscatter. Close inspection of the juxtaposed vertical profiles, obtained from lidar and model data near Rome, indicates that the majority (67%) of the cases under investigation can be classified as good or acceptable forecasts of the dust vertical distribution. A more quantitative comparison shows that the model predictions are mainly accurate in the middle part of dust layers. This is supported by high correlation (0.85) between lidar and model data for forecast dust volumes greater than the threshold of 1 × 10-12 cm3/cm3. In general, however, the model tends to underestimate the lidar-derived dust volume profiles. The effect of clouds in the TOMS detection of AI is supposed to be the main factor responsible for this effect. Moreover, some model assumptions on dust sources and particle size and the accuracy of model-simulated meteorological parameters are also likely to affect the dust forecast quality.

The CAMS interim Reanalysis of Carbon Monoxide, Ozone and Aerosol for 2003-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flemming, Johannes; Benedetti, Angela; Inness, Antje; Engelen, Richard J.; Jones, Luke; Huijnen, Vincent; Remy, Samuel; Parrington, Mark; Suttie, Martin; Bozzo, Alessio; Peuch, Vincent-Henri; Akritidis, Dimitris; Katragkou, Eleni

2017-02-01

A new global reanalysis data set of atmospheric composition (AC) for the period 2003-2015 has been produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). Satellite observations of total column (TC) carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol optical depth (AOD), as well as several TC and profile observations of ozone, have been assimilated with the Integrated Forecasting System for Composition (C-IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting. Compared to the previous Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) reanalysis (MACCRA), the new CAMS interim reanalysis (CAMSiRA) is of a coarser horizontal resolution of about 110 km, compared to 80 km, but covers a longer period with the intent to be continued to present day. This paper compares CAMSiRA with MACCRA and a control run experiment (CR) without assimilation of AC retrievals. CAMSiRA has smaller biases than the CR with respect to independent observations of CO, AOD and stratospheric ozone. However, ozone at the surface could not be improved by the assimilation because of the strong impact of surface processes such as dry deposition and titration with nitrogen monoxide (NO), which were both unchanged by the assimilation. The assimilation of AOD led to a global reduction of sea salt and desert dust as well as an exaggerated increase in sulfate. Compared to MACCRA, CAMSiRA had smaller biases for AOD, surface CO and TC ozone as well as for upper stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. Finally, the temporal consistency of CAMSiRA was better than the one of MACCRA. This was achieved by using a revised emission data set as well as by applying careful selection and bias correction to the assimilated retrievals. CAMSiRA is therefore better suited than MACCRA for the study of interannual variability, as demonstrated for trends in surface CO.

Stratospheric water vapor and ozone evaluation in reanalyses as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. M.; Hegglin, M. I.; Fujiwara, M.; Manney, G. L.; Dragani, R.; Nash, E.; Tegtmeier, S.; Kobayashi, C.; Harada, Y.; Long, C. S.; Wargan, K.; Rosenlof, K. H.

2017-12-01

Reanalyses are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. Here we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. For times when vertically resolved observations are not assimilated, biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O3, reanalysis stratospheric WV fields are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore dependent on the reanalyses' representation of processes that influence stratospheric WV, such as tropical tropopause layer temperatures and methane oxidation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Constructing Synoptic Maps of Stratospheric Column Ozone from HALOE, SAGE and Balloonsonde Data Using Potential Vorticity Isentropic Coordinate Transformations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollandsworth, Stacey M.; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Morris, Gary A.; Long, Craig; Zhou, Shuntai; Miller, Alvin J.

1999-01-01

In this study we utilize potential vorticity - isentropic (PVI) coordinate transformations as a means of combining ozone data from different sources to construct daily, synthetic three-dimensional ozone fields. This methodology has been used successfully to reconstruct ozone maps in particular regions from aircraft data over the period of the aircraft campaign. We expand this method to create high-resolution daily global maps of profile ozone data, particularly in the lower stratosphere, where high-resolution ozone data are sparse. Ozone climatologies in PVI-space are constructed from satellite-based SAGE II and UARS/HALOE data, both of which-use solar occultation techniques to make high vertical resolution ozone profile measurements, but with low spatial resolution. A climatology from ground-based balloonsonde data is also created. The climatologies are used to establish the relationship between ozone and dynamical variability, which is defined by the potential vorticity (in the form of equivalent latitude) and potential temperature fields. Once a PVI climatology has been created from data taken by one or more instruments, high-resolution daily profile ozone field estimates are constructed based solely on the PVI fields, which are available on a daily basis from NCEP analysis. These profile ozone maps could be used for a variety of applications, including use in conjunction with total ozone maps to create a daily tropospheric ozone product, as input to forecast models, or as a tool for validating independent ozone measurements when correlative data are not available. This technique is limited to regions where the ozone is a long-term tracer and the flow is adiabatic. We evaluate the internal consistency of the technique by transforming the ozone back to physical space and comparing to the original profiles. Biases in the long-term average of the differences are used to identify regions where the technique is consistently introducing errors. Initial results show the technique is useful in the lower stratosphere at most latitudes throughout the year,and in the winter hemisphere in the middle stratosphere. The results are problematic in the summer hemisphere middle stratosphere due to increased ozone photochemistry and weak PV gradients. Alternate techniques in these regions will be discussed. An additional limitation is the quality and resolution of the meteorological data.

Evaluation of the ability of the MACC-II Reanalysis to reproduce the distribution of O3 and CO in the UTLS as measured by MOZAIC-IAGOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaudel, A.; Clark, H.; Thouret, V.; Eskes, H.; Huijnen, V.; Nedelec, P.

2013-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is probably one of the most important trace gases in the atmosphere. It plays a major role in the chemistry of the troposphere by exerting a strong influence on the concentrations of oxidants such as hydroxyl radical (OH) and is the third greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane. Its radiative impact is of particular importance in the Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere (UTLS), the most critical region regarding the climate change. Carbon Monoxide (CO) is one of the major ozone precursors (originating from all types of combustion) in the troposphere. In the UTLS, it also has implications for stratospheric chemistry and indirect radiative forcing effects (as a chemical precursor of CO2 and O3). Assessing the global distribution (and possibly trends) of O3 and CO in this region of the atmosphere, combining high resolution in situ data and the most appropriate global 3D model to further quantify the different sources and their origins is then of particular interest. This is one of the objectives of the MOZAIC-IAGOS (http://www.iagos.fr) and MACC-II (http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu) European programs. The aircraft of the MOZAIC program have collected simultaneously O3 and CO data regularly all over the world since the end of 2001. Most of the data are recorded in northern mid-latitudes, in the UTLS region (as commercial aircraft cruise altitude is between 9 and 12 km). MACC-II aims at providing information services covering air quality, climate forcing and stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and solar-energy resources, using near real time analysis and forecasting products, and reanalysis. The validation reports of the MACC models are regularly published (http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/services/gac/nrt/ and http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/services/gac/reanalysis/). We will present and discuss the performance of the MACC-reanalysis, including the ECMWF-Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) coupled to the CTM MOZART with 4DVAR data assimilation, to reproduce ozone and CO in the UTLS, as evaluated by the observations of MOZAIC between 2003 and 2008. In the UT, the model tends to overestimate O3 by about 30-40 % in the mid-latitudes and polar regions. This applies broadly to all seasons but is more marked in DJF and MAM. In tropical regions, the model underestimates UT ozone by about 20 % in all seasons but this is stronger in JJA. Upper-tropospheric CO is globally underestimated by the model in all seasons, by 10-20 %. In the southern hemisphere, it is particularly the case in SON in the regions of wildfires in South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, the zonal gradient of CO between the US, Europe and Asia is not well-captured by the model, especially in MAM.

Comprehensive evaluation of multi-year real-time air quality forecasting using an online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model over southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yang; Hong, Chaopeng; Yahya, Khairunnisa; Li, Qi; Zhang, Qiang; He, Kebin

2016-08-01

An online-coupled meteorology-chemistry model, WRF/Chem-MADRID, has been deployed for real time air quality forecast (RT-AQF) in southeastern U.S. since 2009. A comprehensive evaluation of multi-year RT-AQF shows overall good performance for temperature and relative humidity at 2-m (T2, RH2), downward surface shortwave radiation (SWDOWN) and longwave radiation (LWDOWN), and cloud fraction (CF), ozone (O3) and fine particles (PM2.5) at surface, tropospheric ozone residuals (TOR) in O3 seasons (May-September), and column NO2 in winters (December-February). Moderate-to-large biases exist in wind speed at 10-m (WS10), precipitation (Precip), cloud optical depth (COT), ammonium (NH4+), sulfate (SO42-), and nitrate (NO3-) from the IMPROVE and SEARCH networks, organic carbon (OC) at IMPROVE, and elemental carbon (EC) and OC at SEARCH, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and column carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and formaldehyde (HCHO) in both O3 and winter seasons, column nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in O3 seasons, and TOR in winters. These biases indicate uncertainties in the boundary layer and cloud process treatments (e.g., surface roughness, microphysics cumulus parameterization), emissions (e.g., O3 and PM precursors, biogenic, mobile, and wildfire emissions), upper boundary conditions for all major gases and PM2.5 species, and chemistry and aerosol treatments (e.g., winter photochemistry, aerosol thermodynamics). The model shows overall good skills in reproducing the observed multi-year trends and inter-seasonal variability in meteorological and radiative variables such as T2, WS10, Precip, SWDOWN, and LWDOWN, and relatively well in reproducing the observed trends in surface O3 and PM2.5, but relatively poor in reproducing the observed column abundances of CO, NO2, SO2, HCHO, TOR, and AOD. The sensitivity simulations using satellite-constrained boundary conditions for O3 and CO show substantial improvement for both spatial distribution and domain-mean performance statistics. The model's forecasting skills for air quality can be further enhanced through improving model inputs (e.g., anthropogenic emissions for urban areas and upper boundary conditions of chemical species), meteorological forecasts (e.g., WS10, Precip) and meteorologically-dependent emissions (e.g., biogenic and wildfire emissions), and model physics and chemical treatments (e.g., gas-phase chemistry in winter conditions, cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and aerosol).

Resolving uncertainties in the urban air quality, climate, and vegetation nexus through citizen science, satellite imagery, and atmospheric modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenerette, D.; Wang, J.; Chandler, M.; Ripplinger, J.; Koutzoukis, S.; Ge, C.; Castro Garcia, L.; Kucera, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

Large uncertainties remain in identifying the distribution of urban air quality and temperature risks across neighborhood to regional scales. Nevertheless, many cities are actively expanding vegetation with an expectation to moderate both climate and air quality risks. We address these uncertainties through an integrated analysis of satellite data, atmospheric modeling, and in-situ environmental sensor networks maintained by citizen scientists. During the summer of 2017 we deployed neighborhood-scale networks of air temperature and ozone sensors through three campaigns across urbanized southern California. During each five-week campaign we deployed six sensor nodes that included an EPA federal equivalent method ozone sensor and a suite of meteorological sensors. Each node was further embedded in a network of 100 air temperature sensors that combined a randomized design developed by the research team and a design co-created by citizen scientists. Between 20 and 60 citizen scientists were recruited for each campaign, with local partners supporting outreach and training to ensure consistent deployment and data gathering. We observed substantial variation in both temperature and ozone concentrations at scales less than 4km, whole city, and the broader southern California region. At the whole city scale the average spatial variation with our ozone sensor network just for city of Long Beach was 26% of the mean, while corresponding variation in air temperature was only 7% of the mean. These findings contrast with atmospheric model estimates of variation at the regional scale of 11% and 1%. Our results show the magnitude of fine-scale variation underestimated by current models and may also suggest scaling functions that can connect neighborhood and regional variation in both ozone and temperature risks in southern California. By engaging citizen science with high quality sensors, satellite data, and real-time forecasting, our results help identify magnitudes of climate and air quality risk variation across scales and can guide individual decisions and urban policies surrounding vegetation to moderate these risks.

Development and Applications of the GOES Sounder Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Menzel, W. P.; Li, Z.; Wade, G.; Schmit, T. J.; Li, J. L.; Aune, R.; Schreiner, A. J.; Schmidt, C. C.; Genkova, I.

Since 1994 a new generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES Sounders GOES-8 9 10 11 12 has been measuring radiances in 18 infrared spectral bands ranging from approximately 3 7um - 14 7 um This data has been used to provide atmospheric sounding and cloud products for meteorological applications on an hourly basis over North America and adjacent oceanic regions The products include atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles total precipitable water cloud-top pressure water-vapor tracked winds etc Products are generated operationally by NOAA NESDIS in Washington D C Some Sounder products including total column ozone are also produced at the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison Applications of those products include nowcasting and forecasting of weather events assimilation of cloud products into regional numerical forecast models and monitoring of temperature and moisture changes during active convective periods The impact of GOES Sounder products on numerical model forecasts will be demonstrated Furthermore recent improvements to several of the products have been made by taking into account the GOES Sounder temporal and spatial information within the processing algorithms These improvements and implications thereof will be presented and discussed

Rossby-gravity waves in tropical total ozone data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanford, J. L.; Ziemke, J. R.

1993-01-01

Evidence for Rossby-gravity waves in tropical data fields produced by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was recently reported. Similar features are observable in fields of total column ozone from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite instrument. The observed features are episodic, have zonal (east-west) wavelengths of 6,000-10,000 km, and oscillate with periods of 5-10 days. In accord with simple linear theory, the modes exhibit westward phase progression and eastward group velocity. The significance of finding Rossby-gravity waves in total ozone fields is that (1) the report of similar features in ECMWF tropical fields is corroborated with an independent data set and (2) the TOMS data set is demonstrated to possess surprising versatility and sensitivity to relatively smaller scale tropical phenomena.

Forecasting Plant Productivity and Health Using Diffuse-to-Global Irradiance Ratios Extracted from the OMI Aerosol Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowlton, Kelly; Andrews, Jane C.; Ryan, Robert E.

2007-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols are a major contributor to diffuse irradiance. This Candidate Solution suggests using the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) aerosol product as input into a radiative transfer model, which would calculate the ratio of diffuse to global irradiance at the Earth s surface. This ratio can significantly influence the rate of photosynthesis in plants; increasing the ratio of diffuse to global irradiance can accelerate photosynthesis, resulting in greater plant productivity. Accurate values of this ratio could be useful in predicting crop productivity, thereby improving forecasts of regional food resources. However, disagreements exist between diffuse-to-global irradiance values measured by different satellites and ground sensors. OMI, with its unique combination of spectral bands, high resolution, and daily global coverage, may be able to provide more accurate aerosol measurements than other comparable sensors.

An overview of the 2013 Las Vegas Ozone Study (LVOS): Impact of stratospheric intrusions and long-range transport on surface air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, A. O.; Senff, C. J.; Alvarez, R. J.; Brioude, J.; Cooper, O. R.; Holloway, J. S.; Lin, M. Y.; Marchbanks, R. D.; Pierce, R. B.; Sandberg, S. P.; Weickmann, A. M.; Williams, E. J.

2015-05-01

The 2013 Las Vegas Ozone Study (LVOS) was conducted in the late spring and early summer of 2013 to assess the seasonal contribution of stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and long-range transport to surface ozone in Clark County, Nevada and determine if these processes directly contribute to exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) in this area. Secondary goals included the characterization of local ozone production, regional transport from the Los Angeles Basin, and impacts from wildfires. The LVOS measurement campaign took place at a former U.S. Air Force radar station ∼45 km northwest of Las Vegas on Angel Peak (∼2.7 km above mean sea level, asl) in the Spring Mountains. The study consisted of two extended periods (May 19-June 4 and June 22-28, 2013) with near daily 5-min averaged lidar measurements of ozone and backscatter profiles from the surface to ∼2.5 km above ground level (∼5.2 km asl), and continuous in situ measurements (May 20-June 28) of O3, CO, (1-min) and meteorological parameters (5-min) at the surface. These activities were guided by forecasts and analyses from the FLEXPART (FLEXible PARTticle) dispersion model and the Real Time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS), and the NOAA Geophysical Research Laboratory (NOAA GFDL) AM3 chemistry-climate model. In this paper, we describe the LVOS measurements and present an overview of the results. The combined measurements and model analyses show that STT directly contributed to each of the three O3 exceedances that occurred in Clark County during LVOS, with contributions to 8-h surface concentrations in excess of 30 ppbv on each of these days. The analyses show that long-range transport from Asia made smaller contributions (<10 ppbv) to surface O3 during two of those exceedances. The contribution of regional wildfires to surface O3 during the three LVOS exceedance events was found to be negligible, but wildfires were found to be a major factor during exceedance events that occurred before and after the LVOS campaign. Our analyses also shows that ozone exceedances would have occurred on more than 50% of the days during the six-week LVOS campaign if the 8-h ozone NAAQS had been 65 ppbv instead of 75 ppbv.

Identifying Stratospheric Air Intrusions and Associated Hurricane-Force Wind Events over the North Pacific Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malloy, Kelsey; Folmer, Michael J.; Phillips, Joseph; Sienkiewicz, Joseph M.; Berndt, Emily

2017-01-01

Motivation: Ocean data is sparse: reliance on satellite imagery for marine forecasting; Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) –“mariner’s weather lifeline”. Responsible for: Pacific, Atlantic, Pacific Alaska surface analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Wind & wave analyses –24, 48, 96 hrs.; Issue warnings, make decisions, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite –R Series (now GOES-16), Compared to the old GOES: 3 times spectral resolution, 4 times spatial resolution, 5 times faster coverage; Comparable to Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Himawari-8, used a lot throughout this research. Research Question: How can integrating satellite data imagery and derived products help forecasters improve prognosis of rapid cyclogenesis and hurricane-force wind events? Phase I –Identifying stratospheric air intrusions: Water Vapor –6.2, 6.9, 7.3 micron channels; Airmass RGB Product; AIRS, IASI, NUCAPS total column ozone and ozone anomaly; ASCAT (A/B) and AMSR-2 wind data.

Analysis of a rapid increase of stratospheric ozone during late austral summer 2008 over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bencherif, H.; El Amraoui, L.; Kirgis, G.; Leclair de Bellevue, J.; Hauchecorne, A.; Mzé, N.; Portafaix, T.

2010-07-01

This paper reports on an increase of ozone event observed over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E) in relationship with large-scale isentropic transport. It is evidenced from ground-based observations, together with satellite global observations and assimilated fields. The study is based on the analyses of the first ozonesonde experiment never recorded at the Kerguelen site in the framework of a French campaign called ROCK that took place from April to August 2008. Comparisons and interpretations of the observed event are supported by co-localised SAOZ observations, by global mapping of tracers (O3, N2O and columns of O3) from Aura/MLS and Aura/OMI experiments, and by model simulations of Ertel Potential Vorticity initialised by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data reanalyses. Satellite and ground-based observational data revealed a consistent increase of ozone in the local stratosphere by mid-April 2008. Additionally, Ozone (O3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) profiles obtained during January-May 2008 by the Microwave Lamb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite are assimilated into MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle), a global three-dimensional chemistry transport model of Météo-France. The assimilated total O3 values are consistent with SAOZ ground observations (within ±5%), and isentropic distributions of O3 are matching well with maps of advected potential vorticity (APV) derived from the MIMOSA model, a high-resolution advection transport model, and from ECMWF reanalysis. The studied event seems to be related to isentropic transport of air masses that took place simultaneously in the lower- and middle-stratosphere, respectively from the polar region and from tropics to the mid-latitudes. In fact, the studied ozone increase by mid April 2008 results simultaneously: (1) from an equator-ward departure of polar air masses characterised with a high-ozone layer in the lower stratosphere (nearby the 475 K isentropic level), and (2) from a reverse isentropic transport from tropics to mid- and high-latitudes in the upper stratosphere (nearby the 700 K level). The increase of ozone observed over Kerguelen from the 16-April ozonesonde profile is then attributed to a concomitant isentropic transport of ozone in two stratospheric layers: the tropical air moving southward and reaches over Kerguelen in the upper stratosphere, and the polar air passing over the same area but in the lower stratosphere.

Overview of the Ozone Water-Land Environmental Transition Study: Summary of Observations and Initial Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkoff, T.; Sullivan, J.; Pippin, M. R.; Gronoff, G.; Knepp, T. N.; Twigg, L.; Schroeder, J.; Carrion, W.; Farris, B.; Kowalewski, M. G.; Nino, L.; Gargulinski, E.; Rodio, L.; Sanchez, P.; Desorae Davis, A. A.; Janz, S. J.; Judd, L.; Pusede, S.; Wolfe, G. M.; Stauffer, R. M.; Munyan, J.; Flynn, J.; Moore, B.; Dreessen, J.; Salkovitz, D.; Stumpf, K.; King, B.; Hanisco, T. F.; Brandt, J.; Blake, D. R.; Abuhassan, N.; Cede, A.; Tzortziou, M.; Demoz, B.; Tsay, S. C.; Swap, R.; Holben, B. N.; Szykman, J.; McGee, T. J.; Neilan, J.; Allen, D.

2017-12-01

The monitoring of ozone (O3) in the troposphere is of pronounced interest due to its known toxicity and health hazard as a photo-chemically generated pollutant. One of the major difficulties for the air quality modeling, forecasting and satellite communities is the validation of O3 levels in sharp transition regions, as well as near-surface vertical gradients. Land-water gradients of O3 near coastal regions can be large due to differences in surface deposition, boundary layer height, and cloud coverage. Observations in horizontal and vertical directions over the Chesapeake Bay are needed to better understand O3 formation and redistribution within regional recirculation patterns. The O3 Water-Land Environmental Transition Study (OWLETS) was a field campaign conducted in the summer 2017 in the VA Tidewater region to better characterize O3 across the coastal boundary. To obtain over-water measurements, the NASA Langley Ozone Lidar as well as supplemental measurements from other sensors (e.g. Pandora, AERONET) were deployed on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel (CBBT) 7-8 miles offshore. These observations were complimented by NASA Goddard's Tropospheric Ozone Lidar along with ground-based measurements over-land at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in Hampton, VA. On measurement days, time-synchronized data were collected, including launches of ozonesondes from CBBT and LaRC sites that provided additional O3, wind, and temperature vertical distribution differences between land and water. These measurements were complimented with: in-situ O3 sensors on two mobile cars, a micro-pulse lidar at Hampton University, an in-situ O3 sensor on a small UAV-drone, and Virginia DEQ air-quality sites. Two aircraft and a research vessel also contributed to OWLETS at various points during the campaign: the NASA UC-12B with the GeoTASO passive remote sensor, the NASA C-23 with an in-situ chemistry analysis suite, and a SERC research vessel with both remote and in-situ sensors. This combination of observations provided a unique 4-D (horizontal, vertical, and time) view of O3 to help provide feedback to air quality forecast models as well as future satellite remote sensing systems such as NASA's TEMPO mission. In this presentation, a summary of observations and initial results will be presented from the OWLETS campaign.

Stratospheric Intrusion Catalog: A 10-year Compilation of Events Identified By Using an Objective Feature Tracking Model With NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Ott, L. E.; Duncan, B. N.; Wargan, K.; Hodges, K.

2017-12-01

Stratospheric intrusions - the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere - have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of stratospheric intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. A new approach to the study of stratospheric intrusions uses NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) model and assimilation products with an objective feature tracking algorithm to investigate the atmospheric dynamics that generate stratospheric intrusions and the different mechanisms through which stratospheric intrusions may influence tropospheric chemistry and surface air quality seasonally over both the western and the eastern USA. A catalog of stratospheric intrusions identified in the MERRA-2 reanalysis was produced for the period 2005-2014 and validated against surface ozone observations (focusing on those which exceed the national air quality standard) and a recent data set of stratospheric intrusion-influenced air quality exceedance flags from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Considering not all ozone exceedances have been flagged by the EPA, a collection of stratospheric intrusions can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone and demonstrates that future operational analyses may aid in forecasting such events. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of stratospheric intrusions over the continental US was performed, and while the spring over the western USA does exhibit the largest number of stratospheric intrusions affecting the lower troposphere, the number of intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the eastern USA is sizable. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence weather in the USA, such as the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection index, predicative meteorological patterns associated with stratospheric intrusions and their regional effects on tropospheric ozone were identified. Improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of such events.

Evaluation of near surface ozone and particulate matter in air ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In this study, techniques typically used for future air quality projections are applied to a historical 11-year period to assess the performance of the modeling system when the driving meteorological conditions are obtained using dynamical downscaling of coarse-scale fields without correcting toward higher-resolution observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model are used to simulate regional climate and air quality over the contiguous United States for 2000–2010. The air quality simulations for that historical period are then compared to observations from four national networks. Comparisons are drawn between defined performance metrics and other published modeling results for predicted ozone, fine particulate matter, and speciated fine particulate matter. The results indicate that the historical air quality simulations driven by dynamically downscaled meteorology are typically within defined modeling performance benchmarks and are consistent with results from other published modeling studies using finer-resolution meteorology. This indicates that the regional climate and air quality modeling framework utilized here does not introduce substantial bias, which provides confidence in the method’s use for future air quality projections. This paper shows that if emissions inputs and coarse-scale meteorological inputs are reasonably accurate, then air quality can be simulated with acceptable accuracy even wi

Impact of Diurnal Variations of Precursors on the Prediction of Ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamer, P. D.; Bowman, K. W.; Henze, D. K.; Singh, K.

2009-12-01

Using a photochemical box model and its adjoint, constructed using the Kinetic Pre-Processor, we investigate the impacts of changing observational capacity, observation frequency and quality upon the ability to both understand and predict the nature of peak ozone events within a variety of polluted environments. The model consists of a chemical mechanism based on the Master Chemical Mechanism utilising 171 chemical species and 524 chemical reactions interacting with emissions, dry deposition and mixing schemes. The model was run under a variety of conditions designed to simulate a range of summertime polluted environments spanning a range of NOx and volatile organic compound regimes (VOCs). Using the forward model we were able to generate simulated atmospheric conditions representative of a particular polluted environment, which could in turn be used to generate a set of pseudo observations of key photochemical constituents. The model was then run under somewhat less polluted conditions to generate a background and then perturbed back towards the polluted trajectory using sequential data assimilation and the pseudo observations. Using a combination of the adjoint sensitivity analysis and the sequential data assimilation described here we assess the optimal time of observation and the diversity of observed chemical species required to provide acceptable forecast estimates of ozone concentrations. As the photochemical regime changes depending on NOx and VOC concentrations different observing strategies become favourable. The impact of using remote sensing based observations of the free tropospheric photochemical state are investigated to demonstrate the advantage of gaining knowledge of atmospheric trace gases away from the immediate photochemical environment.

Development of the physics driver in NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, H.; Iredell, M.; Tripp, P.

2016-12-01

As a key component of the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), a physics driver is developed in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) in order to facilitate the research, development, and transition to operations of innovations in atmospheric physical parameterizations. The physics driver connects the atmospheric dynamic core, the Common Community Physics Package and the other NEMS-based forecast components (land, ocean, sea ice, wave, and space weather). In current global forecasting system, the physics driver has incorporated major existing physics packages including radiation, surface physics, cloud and microphysics, ozone, and stochastic physics. The physics driver is also applicable to external physics packages. The structure adjustment in NEMS by separating the PHYS trunk is to create an open physics package pool. This open platform is beneficial to the enhancement of U.S. weather forecast ability. In addition, with the universal physics driver, the NEMS can also be used for specific functions by connecting external target physics packages through physics driver. The test of its function is to connect a physics dust-radiation model in the system. Then the modified system can be used for dust storm prediction and forecast. The physics driver is also developed into a standalone form. This is to facilitate the development works on physics packages. The developers can save instant fields of meteorology data and snapshots from the running system , and then used them as offline driving data fields to test the new individual physics modules or small modifications to current modules. This prevents the run of whole system for every test.

Application of Wavelet Filters in an Evaluation of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Air quality model evaluation can be enhanced with time-scale specific comparisons of outputs and observations. For example, high-frequency (hours to one day) time scale information in observed ozone is not well captured by deterministic models and its incorporation into model performance metrics lead one to devote resources to stochastic variations in model outputs. In this analysis, observations are compared with model outputs at seasonal, weekly, diurnal and intra-day time scales. Filters provide frequency specific information that can be used to compare the strength (amplitude) and timing (phase) of observations and model estimates. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being used by EPA, NOAA, and the air pollution community in understanding and forecasting not only the magnitude of the air pollu

Assimilation of SBUV Version 8 Radiances into the GEOS Ozone DAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Martin D.; Stajner, Ivanka; Bhartia, Pawan K.

2004-01-01

In operational weather forecasting, the assimilation of brightness temperatures from satellite sounders, instead of assimilation of 1D-retrievals has become increasingly common practice over the last two decades. Compared to these systems, assimilation of trace gases is still at a relatively early stage of development, and efforts to directly assimilate radiances instead of retrieved products have just begun a few years ago, partially because it requires much more computation power due to the employment of a radiative transport forward model (FM). This paper will focus on a method to assimilate SBUV/2 radiances (albedos) into the Global Earth Observation System Ozone Data Assimilation Scheme (GEOS-03DAS). While SBUV-type instruments cannot compete with newer sensors in terms of spectral and horizontal resolution, they feature a continuous data record back to 1978, which makes them very valuable for trend studies. Assimilation can help spreading their ground coverage over the whole globe, as has been previously demonstrated with the GEOS-03DAS using SBUV Version 6 ozone profiles. Now, the DAS has been updated to use the newly released SBUV Version 8 data. We will compare pre]lmlnarv results of SBUV radiance assimilation with the assimilation of retrieved ozone profiles, discuss methods to deal with the increased computational load, and try to assess the error characteristics and future potential of the new approach.

Analysis of a rapid increase of stratospheric ozone during late austral summer 2008 over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bencherif, H.; El Amraoui, L.; Kirgis, G.; Leclair de Bellevue, J.; Hauchecorne, A.; Mzé, N.; Portafaix, T.; Pazmino, A.; Goutail, F.

2011-01-01

This paper reports on an increase of ozone event observed over Kerguelen (49.4° S, 70.3° E) in relationship with large-scale isentropic transport. This is evidenced by ground-based observations (co-localised radiosonde and SAOZ experiments) together with satellite global observations (Aura/MLS) assimilated into MOCAGE, a Méteo-France model. The study is based on the analyses of the first ozonesonde experiment never recorded at the Kerguelen site within the framework of a French campaign called ROCK that took place from April to August 2008. Comparisons and interpretations of the observed event are supported by co-localised SAOZ observations, by global mapping of tracers (O3, N2O and columns of O3) from Aura/MLS and Aura/OMI experiments, and by model simulations of Ertel Potential Vorticity initialised by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data reanalyses. Satellite and ground-based observational data revealed a consistent increase of ozone in the local stratosphere by mid-April 2008. Additionally, Ozone (O3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) profiles obtained during January-May 2008 using the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Aura satellite are assimilated into MOCAGE (MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle), a global three-dimensional chemistry transport model of Météo-France. The assimilated total O3 values are consistent with SAOZ ground observations (within ±5%), and isentropic distributions of O3 match well with maps of advected potential vorticity (APV) derived from the MIMOSA model, a high-resolution advection transport model, and from the ECMWF reanalysis. The event studied seems to be related to the isentropic transport of air masses that took place simultaneously in the lower- and middle-stratosphere, respectively from the polar region and from the tropics to the mid-latitudes. In fact, the ozone increase observed by mid April 2008 resulted simultaneously: (1) from an equator-ward departure of polar air masses characterised with a high-ozone layer in the lower stratosphere (near the 475 K isentropic level), and (2) from a reverse isentropic transport from the tropics to mid- and high-latitudes in the upper stratosphere (nearby the 700 K level). The increase of ozone observed over Kerguelen from the 16-April ozonesonde profile is thus attributed to a concomitant isentropic transport of ozone in two stratospheric layers: the tropical air moving southward and reaching over Kerguelen in the upper stratosphere, and the polar air passing over the same area but in the lower stratosphere.

The Application of Satellite-Derived, High-Resolution Land Use/Land Cover Data to Improve Urban Air Quality Model Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, D. A.; Lapenta, W. M.; Crosson, W. L.; Estes, M. G., Jr.; Limaye, A.; Kahn, M.

2006-01-01

Local and state agencies are responsible for developing state implementation plans to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Numerical models used for this purpose simulate the transport and transformation of criteria pollutants and their precursors. The specification of land use/land cover (LULC) plays an important role in controlling modeled surface meteorology and emissions. NASA researchers have worked with partners and Atlanta stakeholders to incorporate an improved high-resolution LULC dataset for the Atlanta area within their modeling system and to assess meteorological and air quality impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigation strategies. The new LULC dataset provides a more accurate representation of land use, has the potential to improve model accuracy, and facilitates prediction of LULC changes. Use of the new LULC dataset for two summertime episodes improved meteorological forecasts, with an existing daytime cold bias of approx. equal to 3 C reduced by 30%. Model performance for ozone prediction did not show improvement. In addition, LULC changes due to Atlanta area urbanization were predicted through 2030, for which model simulations predict higher urban air temperatures. The incorporation of UHI mitigation strategies partially offset this warming trend. The data and modeling methods used are generally applicable to other U.S. cities.

Air quality in Delhi during the Commonwealth Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrapu, P.; Cheng, Y.; Beig, G.; Sahu, S.; Srinivas, R.; Carmichael, G. R.

2014-10-01

Air quality during the Commonwealth Games (CWG, held in Delhi in October 2010) is analyzed using a new air quality forecasting system established for the games. The CWG stimulated enhanced efforts to monitor and model air quality in the region. The air quality of Delhi during the CWG had high levels of particles with mean values of PM2.5 and PM10 at the venues of 111 and 238 μg m-3, respectively. Black carbon (BC) accounted for ~ 10% of the PM2.5 mass. It is shown that BC, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are well predicted, but with positive biases of ~ 25%. The diurnal variations are also well captured, with both the observations and the modeled values showing nighttime maxima and daytime minima. A new emissions inventory, developed as part of this air quality forecasting initiative, is evaluated by comparing the observed and predicted species-species correlations (i.e., BC : CO; BC : PM2.5; PM2.5 : PM10). Assuming that the observations at these sites are representative and that all the model errors are associated with the emissions, then the modeled concentrations and slopes can be made consistent by scaling the emissions by 0.6 for NOx, 2 for CO, and 0.7 for BC, PM2.5, and PM10. The emission estimates for particles are remarkably good considering the uncertainty in the estimates due to the diverse spread of activities and technologies that take place in Delhi and the rapid rates of change. The contribution of various emission sectors including transportation, power, domestic and industry to surface concentrations are also estimated. Transport, domestic and industrial sectors all make significant contributions to PM levels in Delhi, and the sectoral contributions vary spatially within the city. Ozone levels in Delhi are elevated, with hourly values sometimes exceeding 100 ppb. The continued growth of the transport sector is expected to make ozone pollution a more pressing air pollution problem in Delhi. The sector analysis provides useful inputs into the design of strategies to reduce air pollution levels in Delhi. The contribution for sources outside of Delhi on Delhi air quality range from ~ 25% for BC and PM to ~ 60% for day time ozone. The significant contributions from non-Delhi sources indicates that in Delhi (as has been show elsewhere) these strategies will also need a more regional perspective.

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone. Part 1; Northern Hemisphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2008-01-01

The authors apply principal component analysis (PCA) to the extratropical total column ozone from the combined merged ozone data product and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assimilated ozone from January 1979 to August 2002. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by four main modes. Attributable to dominant dynamical effects, these four modes account for nearly 60% of the total ozone variance in the NH. The patterns of variability are distinctly different from those derived for total O-3 in the tropics. To relate the derived patterns of O-3 to atmospheric dynamics, similar decompositions are performed for the 30 100-Wa geopotential thickness. The results reveal intimate connections between the IAV of total ozone and the atmospheric circulation. The first two leading modes are nearly zonally symmetric and represent the connections to the annular modes and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The other two modes exhibit in-quadrature, wavenumber-1 structures that, when combined, describe the displacement of the polar vortices in response to planetary waves. In the NH, the extrema of these combined modes have preferred locations that suggest fixed topographical and land-sea thermal forcing of the involved planetary waves. Similar spatial patterns and trends in extratropical column ozone are simulated by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistryclimate model (GEOS-CCM). The decreasing O-3 trend is captured in the first mode. The largest trend occurs at the North Pole, with values similar to-1 Dobson Unit (DU) yr(-1). There is almost no trend in tropical O-3. The trends derived from PCA are confirmed using a completely independent method, empirical mode decomposition, for zonally averaged O-3 data. The O-3 trend is also captured by mode 1 in the GEOS-CCM, but the decrease is substantially larger than that in the real atmosphere.

Importance of a Priori Vertical Ozone Profiles for TEMPO Air Quality Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Matthew S.; Sullivan, John; Liu, Xiong; Zoogman, Peter; Newchurch, Mike; Kuang, Shi; McGee, Thomas; Leblanc, Thierry

2017-01-01

Ozone (O3) is a toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality. Typically, monitoring of surface air quality and O3 mixing ratios is conducted using in situ measurement networks. This is partially due to high-quality information related to air quality being limited from space-borne platforms due to coarse spatial resolution, limited temporal frequency, and minimal sensitivity to lower tropospheric and surface-level O3. The Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) satellite is designed to address the limitations of current space-based platforms and to improve our ability to monitor North American air quality. TEMPO will provide hourly data of total column and vertical profiles of O3 with high spatial resolution to be used as a near-real-time air quality product. TEMPO O3 retrievals will apply the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory profile algorithm developed based on work from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment), GOME-2, and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument). This algorithm is suggested to use a priori O3 profile information from a climatological data-base developed from long-term ozone-sonde measurements (tropopause-based (TB-Clim) O3 climatology). This study evaluates the TB-Clim dataset and model simulated O3 profiles, which could potentially serve as a priori O3 profile information in TEMPO retrievals, from near-real-time data assimilation model products (NASA GMAO's (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) operational GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5) FP (Forecast Products) model and reanalysis data from MERRA2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2)) and a full chemical transport model (CTM), GEOS-Chem. In this study, vertical profile products are evaluated with surface (0-2 kilometers) and tropospheric (0-10 kilometers) TOLNet (Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network) observations and the theoretical impact of individual a priori profile sources on the accuracy of TEMPO O3 retrievals in the troposphere and at the surface are presented. Results indicate that while the TB-Clim climatological dataset can replicate seasonally-averaged tropospheric O3 profiles, model-simulated profiles from a full CTM resulted in more accurate tropospheric and surface-level O3 retrievals from TEMPO when compared to hourly and daily-averaged TOLNet observations. Furthermore, it is shown that when large surface O3 mixing ratios are observed, TEMPO retrieval values at the surface are most accurate when applying CTM a priori profile information compared to all other data products.

Near-real-time TOMS, telecommunications and meteorological support for the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ardanuy, P.; Victorine, J.; Sechrist, F.; Feiner, A.; Penn, L.

1988-01-01

The goal of the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment was to improve the understanding of the mechanisms involved in the formation of the Antarctic ozone hole. Total ozone data taken by the Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) played a central role in the successful outcome of the experiment. During the experiment, the near-real-time TOMS total ozone observations were supplied within hours of real time to the operations center in Punta Arenas, Chile. The final report summarizes the role which Research and Data Systems (RDS) Corporation played in the support of the experiment. The RDS provided telecommunications to support the science and operations efforts for the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment, and supplied near real-time weather information to ensure flight and crew safety; designed and installed the telecommunications network to link NASA-GSFC, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), Palmer Station, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to the operation at Punta Arenas; engineered and installed stations and other stand-alone systems to collect data from designated low-orbiting polar satellites and beacons; provided analyses of Nimbus-7 TOMS data and backup data products to Punta Arenas; and provided synoptic meteorological data analysis and reduction.

Contribution of regional-scale fire events to ozone and PM2.5 ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two specific fires from 2011 are tracked for local to regional scale contribution to ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) using a freely available regulatory modeling system that includes the BlueSky wildland fire emissions tool, Spare Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model, Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model. The modeling system was applied to track the contribution from a wildfire (Wallow) and prescribed fire (Flint Hills) using both source sensitivity and source apportionment approaches. The model estimated fire contribution to primary and secondary pollutants are comparable using source sensitivity (brute-force zero out) and source apportionment (Integrated Source Apportionment Method) approaches. Model estimated O3 enhancement relative to CO is similar to values reported in literature indicating the modeling system captures the range of O3 inhibition possible near fires and O3 production both near the fire and downwind. O3 and peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) are formed in the fire plume and transported downwind along with highly reactive VOC species such as formaldehyde and acetaldehyde that are both emitted by the fire and rapidly produced in the fire plume by VOC oxidation reactions. PAN and aldehydes contribute to continued downwind O3 production. The transport and thermal decomposition of PAN to nitrogen oxides (NOX) enables O3 production in areas

[Effects of synoptic type on surface ozone pollution in Beijing].

PubMed

Tang, Gui-qian; Li, Xin; Wang, Xiao-ke; Xin, Jin-yuan; Hu, Bo; Wang, Li-li; Ren, Yu-fen; Wang, Yue-Si

2010-03-01

Ozone (O), influenced by meteorological factors, is a primary gaseous photochemical pollutant during summer to fall in Beijing' s urban ambient. Continuous monitoring during July to September in 2008 was carried out at four sites in Beijing. Analyzed with synoptic type, the results show that the ratios of pre-low cylonic (mainly Mongolia cyclone) and pre-high anticylonic to total weather conditions are about 42% and 20%, illustrating the high-and low-ozone episodes, respectively. At the pre-low cylonic conditions, high temperature, low humidity, mountain and valley winds caused by local circulation induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) up to 102.2 x 10(-9), negative correlated with atmospheric pressure with a slope of -3.4 x 10(-9) Pa(-1). The time of mountain wind changed to valley wind dominates the diurnal time of maximum ozone, generally around 14:00. At the pre-high anticylonic conditions, low temperature, high humidity and systematic north wind induce average hourly maximum ozone concentration (volume fraction) only 49.3 x 10(-9), the diurnal time of maximum ozone is deferred by continuous north wind till about 16:00. The consistency of photochemical pollution in Beijing region shows that good correlation exists between synoptic type and ozone concentration. Therefore, getting an eye on the structure and evolution of synoptic type is of great significances for forecasting the photochemical pollution.

A new approach for monthly updates of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions from space: Application to China and implications for air quality forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Wang, Jun; Xu, Xiaoguang; Henze, Daven K.; Wang, Yuxuan; Qu, Zhen

2016-09-01

SO2 emissions, the largest source of anthropogenic aerosols, can respond rapidly to economic and policy driven changes. However, bottom-up SO2 inventories have inherent limitations owing to 24-48 months latency and lack of month-to-month variation in emissions (especially in developing countries). This study develops a new approach that integrates Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) SO2 satellite measurements and GEOS-Chem adjoint model simulations to constrain monthly anthropogenic SO2 emissions. The approach's effectiveness is demonstrated for 14 months in East Asia; resultant posterior emissions not only capture a 20% SO2 emission reduction in Beijing during the 2008 Olympic Games but also improve agreement between modeled and in situ surface measurements. Further analysis reveals that posterior emissions estimates, compared to the prior, lead to significant improvements in forecasting monthly surface and columnar SO2. With the pending availability of geostationary measurements of tropospheric composition, we show that it may soon be possible to rapidly constrain SO2 emissions and associated air quality predictions at fine spatiotemporal scales.

Poor Air Quality Expected for New England on May 17-18, 2017

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

New England state air quality forecasters are predicting air quality that is unhealthy for sensitive groups, due to ground-level ozone, in much of CT, northern RI & portions of central and southeastern MA (excluding the Cape and the Islands) for May 17.

From LIMS to OMPS-LP: Limb Ozone Observations for Future Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Kramarova, N.; Remsberg, E.; Coy, L.; Harvey, L.; Livesey, N.; Pawson, S.

2017-01-01

High vertical resolution and accuracy of ozone data from satellite-borne limb sounders has made them an invaluable tool in scientific studies of the middle and upper atmosphere. However, it was not until recently that these measurements were successfully incorporated in atmospheric reanalyses: of the major multidecadal reanalyses only ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts') ERA (ECMWF Re-Analysis)-Interim/ERA5 and NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2) use limb ozone data. Validation and comparison studies have demonstrated that the addition of observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS (Earth Observing System) Aura greatly improved the quality of ozone fields in MERRA-2 making these assimilated data sets useful for scientific research. In this presentation, we will show the results of test experiments assimilating retrieved ozone from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS, 1978/1979) and Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP, 2012 to present). Our approach builds on the established assimilation methodology used for MLS in MERRA-2 and, in the case of OMPS-LP, extends the excellent record of MLS ozone assimilation into the post-EOS era in Earth observations. We will show case studies, discuss comparisons of the new experiments with MERRA-2, strategies for bias correction and the potential for combined assimilation of multiple limb ozone data types in future reanalyses for studies of multidecadal stratospheric ozone changes including trends.

Stratospheric Instrusion Catalog: A 10-Year Compilation of Events Identified by using TRACK with NASA's MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowland, K. Emma; Ott, Lesley E.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Wargan, Kris; Hodges, Kevin

2017-01-01

Stratospheric intrusions "the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere" have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedances, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of stratospheric intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. A new approach to the study of stratospheric intrusions uses NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) model and assimilation products with an objective feature tracking algorithm to investigate the atmospheric dynamics that generate stratospheric intrusions and the different mechanisms through which stratospheric intrusions may influence tropospheric chemistry and surface air quality seasonally over both the western and the eastern USA. A catalog of stratospheric intrusions identified in the MERRA-2 reanalysis was produced for the period 2004-2015 and validated against surface ozone observations (focusing on those which exceed the national air quality standard) and a recent data set of stratospheric intrusion-influenced air quality exceedance flags from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Considering not all ozone exceedances have been flagged by the EPA, a collection of stratospheric intrusions can support air quality agencies for more rapid identification of the impact of stratospheric air on surface ozone and demonstrates that future operational analyses may aid in forecasting such events. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of stratospheric intrusions over the continental US was performed, and while the spring over the western USA does exhibit the largest number of stratospheric intrusions affecting the lower troposphere, the number of intrusions in the remaining seasons and over the eastern USA is sizable. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence weather in the USA, such as the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection index, predicative meteorological patterns associated with stratospheric intrusions and their regional effects on tropospheric ozone were identified. Improved understanding of the connections between large-scale climate variability and local-scale dynamically-driven air quality events may support improved seasonal prediction of such events.

Ensemble data assimilation of total column ozone using a coupled meteorology-chemistry model and its impact on the structure of Typhoon Nabi (2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, S.; Park, S. K.; Zupanski, M.

2015-09-01

Ozone (O3) plays an important role in chemical reactions and is usually incorporated in chemical data assimilation (DA). In tropical cyclones (TCs), O3 usually shows a lower concentration inside the eyewall and an elevated concentration around the eye, impacting meteorological as well as chemical variables. To identify the impact of O3 observations on TC structure, including meteorological and chemical information, we developed a coupled meteorology-chemistry DA system by employing the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and an ensemble-based DA algorithm - the maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF). For a TC case that occurred over East Asia, Typhoon Nabi (2005), our results indicate that the ensemble forecast is reasonable, accompanied with larger background state uncertainty over the TC, and also over eastern China. Similarly, the assimilation of O3 observations impacts meteorological and chemical variables near the TC and over eastern China. The strongest impact on air quality in the lower troposphere was over China, likely due to the pollution advection. In the vicinity of the TC, however, the strongest impact on chemical variables adjustment was at higher levels. The impact on meteorological variables was similar in both over China and near the TC. The analysis results are verified using several measures that include the cost function, root mean square (RMS) error with respect to observations, and degrees of freedom for signal (DFS). All measures indicate a positive impact of DA on the analysis - the cost function and RMS error have decreased by 16.9 and 8.87 %, respectively. In particular, the DFS indicates a strong positive impact of observations in the TC area, with a weaker maximum over northeastern China.

Development, Application, and Transition of Aerosol and Trace Gas Products Derived from Next-Generation Satellite Observations to Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berndt, Emily; Naeger, Aaron; Zavodsky, Bradley; McGrath, Kevin; LaFontaine, Frank

2016-01-01

NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a history of successfully transitioning unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community to improve short-term forecasts. SPoRTstrives to bridge the gap between research and operations by maintaining interactive partnerships with end users to develop products that match specific forecast challenges, provide training, and assess the products in the operational environment. This presentation focuses on recent product development, application, and transition of aerosol and trace gas products to operations for specific forecasting applications. Recent activities relating to the SPoRT ozone products, aerosol optical depth composite product, sulfur dioxide, and aerosol index products are discussed.

Quantifying automobile refinishing VOC air emissions - a methodology with estimates and forecasts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, S.P.; Rubick, C.

1996-12-31

Automobile refinishing coatings (referred to as paints), paint thinners, reducers, hardeners, catalysts, and cleanup solvents used during their application, contain volatile organic compounds (VOCs) which are precursors to ground level ozone formation. Some of these painting compounds create hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) which are toxic. This paper documents the methodology, data sets, and the results of surveys (conducted in the fall of 1995) used to develop revised per capita emissions factors for estimating and forecasting the VOC air emissions from the area source category of automobile refinishing. Emissions estimates, forecasts, trends, and reasons for these trends are presented. Future emissionsmore » inventory (EI) challenges are addressed in light of data availability and information networks.« less

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, A.; Ménard, R.

2014-02-01

Multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatiotemporal resolution for the warm season period (1 May to 31 October) for ground-level ozone and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5)) are presented. The OA used in this study combines model outputs from the Canadian air quality forecast suite with US and Canadian observations from various air quality surface monitoring networks. The analyses are based on an optimal interpolation (OI) with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg (H-L) method. The error statistics are "tuned" using a χ2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a semi-empirical procedure that provides significantly better verification than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA setup using 90% of data observations to build the objective analyses and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM2.5 satellite surface-derived or ground-based measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 μg m-3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM2.5, respectively, and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 μg m-3 for PM2.5. This paper focuses on two applications: (1) presenting long-term averages of OA and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology; and (2) analyzing long-term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. The results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 were both following a general decreasing trend in North America, with the eastern part of the United States showing the most widespread decrease, likely due to more effective pollution controls. Some locations, however, exhibited an increasing trend in the mean ozone and PM2.5, such as the northwestern part of North America (northwest US and Alberta). Conversely, the low percentiles are generally rising for ozone, which may be linked to the intercontinental transport of increased emissions from emerging countries. After removing the decadal trend, the inter-annual fluctuations of the high percentiles are largely explained by the temperature fluctuations for ozone and to a lesser extent by precipitation fluctuations for PM2.5. More interesting is the economic short-term change (as expressed by the variation of the US gross domestic product growth rate), which explains 37% of the total variance of inter-annual fluctuations of PM2.5 and 15% in the case of ozone.

Operational use of VIIRS Multispectral Imagery and NUCAPS Soundings in Short-term Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molthan, A.; Fuell, K. K.; Berndt, E.; Schultz, L. A.

2016-12-01

The NASA/SPoRT Program supports the NOAA/JPSS program through the transition of S-NPP VIIRS and CrIS/ATMS products to prepare users for the upcoming JPSS-1/-2 missions. Several multispectral (i.e. RGB) imagery products can be created from VIIRS based on internationally-accepted recipes developed by EUMETSAT. Initial transition of a Nighttime Microphysics RGB to operations revealed improved distinction between low clouds and fog compared with legacy satellite imagery, and hence, improvement in short-term aviation and public forecasts. An increased number of S-NPP passes at high latitude combined with other instruments led to a series of "microphysical" RGBs to be introduced to NWS forecasters in Alaska at both local weather offices as well as regional aviation centers. Forecasters in Alaska also applied VIIRS microphysical RGBs to identify small scale features such as valley/coastal fog, volcanic ash, and convective precipitation. Further use of a "Dust" RGB in the U.S. southwest led to changes in NWS forecast products due to improvements in detection and monitoring of dust aloft. As multispectral imagery has gained operational acceptance, additional work has begun to develop quantitative products to assist users with their interpretation of RGB imagery. For example, National Center forecasters often use an "Air Mass" RGB to differentiate between possible stratospheric /tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. Research was done to demonstrate how the NUCAPS CrIS/ATMS infrared retrieved temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles can aid Air Mass RGB imagery interpretation as well as how these quantitative values are important for anticipating tropical to extratropical transition events. In addition, an enhanced stratospheric depth product was developed to identify the dynamic tropopause from the NUCAPS retrieved ozone profiles to aid identification of stratospheric air influence. Forecasters from National Centers evaluated the NUCAPS profiles as a tool for anticipating extratropical transition during the latter half of the 2016 hurricane season. Examples of multispectral and sounding product impacts in near-realtime operations from VIIRS and CrIS/ATMS are presented here.

Investigating Sources of Ozone over California Using AJAX Airborne Measurements and Models: Assessing the Contribution from Long Range Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ryoo, Ju-Mee; Johnson, Matthew S.; Iraci, Laura T.; Yates, Emma L.; Gore, Warren

2017-01-01

High ozone (O3) concentrations at low altitudes (1.5e4 km) were detected from airborne Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) measurements on 30 May 2012 off the coast of California (CA). We investigate the causes of those elevated O3 concentrations using airborne measurements and various models. GEOS-Chem simulation shows that the contribution from local sources is likely small. A back trajectory model was used to determine the air mass origins and how much they contributed to the O3 over CA. Low-level potential vorticity (PV) from Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data appears to be a result of the diabatic heating and mixing of airs in the lower altitudes, rather than be a result of direct transport from stratospheric intrusion. The Q diagnostic, which is a measure of the mixing of the air masses, indicates that there is sufficient mixing along the trajectory to indicate that O3 from the different origins is mixed and transported to the western U.S.The back-trajectory model simulation demonstrates the air masses of interest came mostly from the mid troposphere (MT, 76), but the contribution of the lower troposphere (LT, 19) is also significant compared to those from the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS, 5). Air coming from the LT appears to be mostly originating over Asia. The possible surface impact of the high O3 transported aloft on the surface O3 concentration through vertical and horizontal transport within a few days is substantiated by the influence maps determined from the Weather Research and Forecasting Stochastic Time Inverted Lagrangian Transport (WRF-STILT) model and the observed increases in surface ozone mixing ratios. Contrasting this complex case with a stratospheric-dominant event emphasizes the contribution of each source to the high O3 concentration in the lower altitudes over CA. Integrated analyses using models, reanalysis, and diagnostic tools, allows high ozone values detected by in-situ measurements to be attributed to multiple source processes.

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Sean M.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Dragani, Rossana; Harada, Yayoi; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Long, Craig; Manney, Gloria L.; Nash, Eric R.; Potter, Gerald L.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Wang, Tao; Wargan, Krzysztof; Wright, Jonathon S.

2017-10-01

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

TEMPO Early Adopters in Air-Quality Forecasting, Planning and Assessment, Pollution Emissions, Health, Agriculture, and Environmental Impacts: Applications and Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newchurch, M.; Zavodsky, B.; Chance, K.; Haynes, J.; Lefer, B. L.; Naeger, A.

2016-12-01

The AQ research community has a long legacy of using space-based observations (e.g., Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument [SBUV], Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment [GOME], Ozone Monitoring Instrument [OMI], and the Ozone Mapping & Profiler Suite [OMPS]) to study atmospheric chemistry. These measurements have been used to observe day-to-day and year-to-year changes in atmospheric constituents. However, they have not been able to capture the diurnal variability of pollution with enough temporal or spatial fidelity and a low enough latency for regular use by operational decision makers. As a result, the operational AQ community has traditionally relied on ground-based (e.g., collection stations, LIDAR) and airborne observing systems to study tropospheric chemistry. In order to maximize its utility for applications and decision support, there is a need to educate the community about the game-changing potential for the geostationary TEMPO mission well ahead of its expected launch date early in the third decade of this millinium. This NASA mission will engage user communities and enable science across the NASA Applied Science Focus Areas of Health and Air Quality, Disasters, Water Resources, and Ecological Forecasting, In addition, topics discussed will provide opportunities for collaborations extending TEMPO applications to future program areas in Agriculture, Weather and Climate (including Numerical Weather Prediction), Energy, and Oceans.

Performance assessment of future thermal infrared geostationary instruments to monitor air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellitto, P.; Dauphin, P.; Dufour, G.; Eremenko, M.; Cuesta, J.; Coman, A.; Forêt, G.; Beekmann, M.; Gaubert, B.; Flaud, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Air quality (AQ) has a recognized onerous impact on human health and the environment, and then on society. It is more and more clear that constantly and efficiently monitoring AQ from space is a valuable step forward towards a more thorough comprehension of pollution processes that can have a relevant impact on the biosphere. In recent years, important progresses in this field have been made, e.g., reliable observations of several pollutants have been obtained, proving the feasibility of monitoring atmospheric composition from space. In this sense, low Earth orbit (LEO) thermal infrared (TIR) space-borne instruments are widely regarded as a useful tool to observe targeted AQ parameters like tropospheric ozone concentrations [1]. However, limitations remain with the current observation systems in particular to observe ozone in the lowermost troposphere (LmT) with a spatial and temporal resolution relevant for monitoring pollution processes at the regional scale. Indeed, LEO instruments are not well adapted to monitor small scale and short term phenomena, owing to their unsatisfactory revisit time. From this point of view, a more satisfactory concept might be based on geostationary (GEO) platforms. Current and planned GEO missions are mainly tailored on meteorological parameters retrieval and do not have sufficient spectral resolutions and signal to noise ratios (SNR) to infer information on trace gases in the LmT. New satellite missions are currently proposed that can partly overcome these limitations. Here we present a group of simulation exercises and sensitivity analyses to set-up future TIR GEO missions adapted to monitor and forecast AQ over Europe, and to evaluate their technical requirements. At this aim, we have developed a general simulator to produce pseudo-observations for different platform/instrument configurations. The core of this simulator is the KOPRA radiative transfer model, including the KOPRAfit inversion module [2]. Note that to assess the impact of the different instruments on the analyses and forecasts of AQ by means of models, our simulator can be coupled with the chemistry and transport model CHIMERE to conduct observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Using our simulator, we have produced pseudo-observations for targeted sensors including some potential and planned future GEO instruments like MTG-IRS and MAGEAQ. In order to achieve the best performances that can be obtained from TIR instruments, we applied an altitude-dependent Tikhonov-Philips retrieval algorithm optimized to maximize the information retrieved from the lower troposphere. This algorithm has already demonstrated powerful performances to retrieve lower tropospheric ozone and to detect pollution events [1]. Finally, a detailed analysis of the pseudo-observations has allowed quantifying the added-value brought by the MAGEAQ TIR instrument to resolve LmT geographical patterns and temporal trends of ozone. The results are critically discussed.

Low ozone over Southern Australia in August 2011 and its impact on solar ultraviolet radiation levels.

PubMed

Gies, Peter; Klekociuk, Andrew; Tully, Matthew; Henderson, Stuart; Javorniczky, John; King, Kerryn; Lemus-Deschamps, Lilia; Makin, Jennifer

2013-01-01

During August 2011 stratospheric ozone over much of Southern Australia dropped to very low levels (approximately 265 Dobson Units) for over a week above major population centers. The weather during this low ozone period was mostly clear and sunny, resulting in measured solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) levels up to 40% higher than normal, with UV Index > 3 despite being winter. Satellite ozone measurements and meteorological assimilated data indicate that the event was likely due in large part to the anomalous southward movement over Australia of ozone-poor air in the lower stratosphere originating from tropical latitudes. At the time, a study measuring the UVR exposures of outdoor workers in Victoria was underway and a number of the workers recorded substantial UVR exposures and were sunburnt. Given the cities and populations involved (approximately 10 million people), it is likely that many people could have been exposed to anomalously high levels of solar UVR for that time of year, with resultant higher UVR exposures and sunburns to unacclimatized skin (often a problem transitioning from low winter to higher spring UVR levels). Reporting procedures have been modified to utilize ozone forecasts to warn the public of anomalously high UVR levels in the future. © 2013 The American Society of Photobiology and Commonwealth of Australia.

Policy implications of KORUS-AQ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.; Chang, L.; Ahn, J.

2017-12-01

Under the leadership of NIER(S. Korea) and NASA(US), Korea-United States Air Quality Study(KORUS-AQ) assembled a large team of measurement and modeling experts to conduct a field study in Korea. The KORUS-AQ study collected detailed measurements from aircrafts, groundsites, and ships during 1 May and 10 June of 2016. Observations were guided by model forecasts of meteorology and air quality, but they also serve to evaluate the performance of these models as part of the ongoing analysis of KORUS-AQ data. And for the understanding to public, we summarized preliminary findings for the following questions. - Can we identify a) the portion of aerosol derived from secondary production in SMA and across Korea, and b) the major sources and factors controlling its variation? - Is ozone formation in Seoul NOx limited or VOC limited? Can we determine the biogenic or natural contributions to ozone production? - How well do KORUS-AQ observations support current emissions estimations by magnitude and sector? - How significant is the impact of the large point sources along the west coast to the air quality of SMA temporally and spatially? - How is Seoul affected by transport of air pollution from sources from regional to continental to hemispheric scales? In the presentation, brief results will be introduced with some directions for the policy and future plans.

Satellite-observed NO2, SO2, and HCHO Vertical Column Densities in East Asia: Recent Changes and Comparisons with Regional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. C.; Lee, P.; Kim, S.; Mok, J.; Yoo, H. L.; Bae, C.; Kim, B. U.; Lim, Y. K.; Woo, J. H.; Park, R.

2015-12-01

This study reports the recent changes in tropospheric NO2, SO2, and HCHO vertical column densities (VCD) in East Asia observed from multiple satellites, highlighting especially the annual trend changes of NO2 and SO2 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China since 2010. Tropospheric VCD data from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME), SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and GOME-2, retrieved from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and OMI National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) standard products, are utilized to investigate the annual trends of NO2, SO2, and HCHO VCDs from 2001 to 2015. They are also compared with simulations from Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) based forecast system by the Integrated Multi-scale Air Quality System for Korea (IMAQS-K) of Ajou University. Until 2011, the changes in NO2 VCD over East Asian countries agree well with the findings of previous research, including the impact of the economic downturn during 2008-2009 and the subsequent quick recovery in China. After peaking in 2011, the NO2 VCD observations from active instruments (OMI and GOME-2) over China started to show a slower decreasing trend, mostly led by the rapid changes in the BTH region in northern China. On the other hand, SO2 started to decline earlier, from 2007, but inclined back from 2010 to 2012, and then back to declining trend since 2012. While satellite observations show dramatic recent changes, the model could not reproduce those changes mostly due to its use of fixed emission inventory. We conclude that rapid update of latest emission inventory is necessary for an accurate forecast of regional air quality in east Asia, especially for upcoming international sports events in PyeongChang (Korea), Tokyo (Japan) and Beijing (China) in 2018, 2020 and 2022, respectively.

On The Development of One-way Nesting of Air-pollution Model Smog Into Numerical Weather Prediction Model Eta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Bednar, J.; Brechler, J.

The spatial distribution of air pollution on the regional scale (Bohemian region) is simulated by means of Charles University puff model SMOG. The results are used for the assessment of the concentration fields of ozone, nitrogen oxides and other ozone precursors. Current improved version of the model covers up to 16 groups of basic compounds and it is based on trajectory computation and puff interaction both by means of Gaussian diffusion mixing and chemical reactions of basic species. Gener- ally, the method used for trajectory computation is valuable mainly for episodes sim- ulation, nevertheless, climatological study can be solved as well by means of average wind rose. For the study being presented huge database of real emission sources was incorporated with all kind of sources included. Some problem with the background values of concentrations was removed. The model SMOG has been nested into the forecast model ETA to obtain appropriate meteorological data input. We can estimate air pollution characteristics both for episodes analysis and the prediction of future air quality conditions. Necessary prognostic variables from the numerical weather pre- diction model are taken for the region of the central Bohemia, where the original puff model was tested. We used mainly 850 hPa wind field for computation of prognos- tic trajectories, the influence of surface temperature as a parameter of photochemistry reactions as well as the effect of cloudness has been tested.

Urban Air Quality Modelling with AURORA: Prague and Bratislava

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldeman, N.; Viaene, P.; De Ridder, K.; Peelaerts, W.; Lauwaet, D.; Muhammad, N.; Blyth, L.

2012-04-01

The European Commission, in its strategy to protect the health of the European citizens, states that in order to assess the impact of air pollution on public health, information on long-term exposure to air pollution should be available. Currently, indicators of air quality are often being generated using measured pollutant concentrations. While air quality monitoring stations data provide accurate time series information at specific locations, air quality models have the advantage of being able to assess the spatial variability of air quality (for different resolutions) and predict air quality in the future based on different scenarios. When running such air quality models at a high spatial and temporal resolution, one can simulate the actual situation as closely as possible, allowing for a detailed assessment of the risk of exposure to citizens from different pollutants. AURORA (Air quality modelling in Urban Regions using an Optimal Resolution Approach), a prognostic 3-dimensional Eulerian chemistry-transport model, is designed to simulate urban- to regional-scale atmospheric pollutant concentration and exposure fields. The AURORA model also allows to calculate the impact of changes in land use (e.g. planting of trees) or of emission reduction scenario's on air quality. AURORA is currently being applied within the ESA atmospheric GMES service, PASODOBLE (http://www.myair-eu.org), that delivers information on air quality, greenhouse gases, stratospheric ozone, … At present there are two operational AURORA services within PASODOBLE. Within the "Air quality forecast service" VITO delivers daily air quality forecasts for Belgium at a resolution of 5 km and for the major Belgian cities: Brussels, Ghent, Antwerp, Liege and Charleroi. Furthermore forecast services are provided for Prague, Czech Republic and Bratislava, Slovakia, both at a resolution of 1 km. The "Urban/regional air quality assessment service" provides urban- and regional-scale maps (hourly resolution) for air pollution and human exposure statistics for an entire year. So far we concentrated on Brussels, Belgium and the Rotterdam harbour area, The Netherlands. In this contribution we focus on the operational forecast services. Reference Lefebvre W. et al. (2011) Validation of the MIMOSA-AURORA-IFDM model chain for policy support: Modeling concentrations of elemental carbon in Flanders, Atmospheric Environment 45, 6705-6713

Using wavelet-feedforward neural networks to improve air pollution forecasting in urban environments.

PubMed

Dunea, Daniel; Pohoata, Alin; Iordache, Stefania

2015-07-01

The paper presents the screening of various feedforward neural networks (FANN) and wavelet-feedforward neural networks (WFANN) applied to time series of ground-level ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5 fractions) recorded at four monitoring stations located in various urban areas of Romania, to identify common configurations with optimal generalization performance. Two distinct model runs were performed as follows: data processing using hourly-recorded time series of airborne pollutants during cold months (O3, NO2, and PM10), when residential heating increases the local emissions, and data processing using 24-h daily averaged concentrations (PM2.5) recorded between 2009 and 2012. Dataset variability was assessed using statistical analysis. Time series were passed through various FANNs. Each time series was decomposed in four time-scale components using three-level wavelets, which have been passed also through FANN, and recomposed into a single time series. The agreement between observed and modelled output was evaluated based on the statistical significance (r coefficient and correlation between errors and data). Daubechies db3 wavelet-Rprop FANN (6-4-1) utilization gave positive results for O3 time series optimizing the exclusive use of the FANN for hourly-recorded time series. NO2 was difficult to model due to time series specificity, but wavelet integration improved FANN performances. Daubechies db3 wavelet did not improve the FANN outputs for PM10 time series. Both models (FANN/WFANN) overestimated PM2.5 forecasted values in the last quarter of time series. A potential improvement of the forecasted values could be the integration of a smoothing algorithm to adjust the PM2.5 model outputs.

Evaluation of a dimension-reduction-based statistical technique for Temperature, Water Vapour and Ozone retrievals from IASI radiances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amato, Umberto; Antoniadis, Anestis; De Feis, Italia; Masiello, Guido; Matricardi, Marco; Serio, Carmine

2009-03-01

Remote sensing of atmosphere is changing rapidly thanks to the development of high spectral resolution infrared space-borne sensors. The aim is to provide more and more accurate information on the lower atmosphere, as requested by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to improve reliability and time span of weather forecasts plus Earth's monitoring. In this paper we show the results we have obtained on a set of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) observations using a new statistical strategy based on dimension reduction. Retrievals have been compared to time-space colocated ECMWF analysis for temperature, water vapor and ozone.

Forecasting peak asthma admissions in London: an application of quantile regression models.

PubMed

Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D; Sarran, Christophe

2013-07-01

Asthma is a chronic condition of great public health concern globally. The associated morbidity, mortality and healthcare utilisation place an enormous burden on healthcare infrastructure and services. This study demonstrates a multistage quantile regression approach to predicting excess demand for health care services in the form of asthma daily admissions in London, using retrospective data from the Hospital Episode Statistics, weather and air quality. Trivariate quantile regression models (QRM) of asthma daily admissions were fitted to a 14-day range of lags of environmental factors, accounting for seasonality in a hold-in sample of the data. Representative lags were pooled to form multivariate predictive models, selected through a systematic backward stepwise reduction approach. Models were cross-validated using a hold-out sample of the data, and their respective root mean square error measures, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values compared. Two of the predictive models were able to detect extreme number of daily asthma admissions at sensitivity levels of 76 % and 62 %, as well as specificities of 66 % and 76 %. Their positive predictive values were slightly higher for the hold-out sample (29 % and 28 %) than for the hold-in model development sample (16 % and 18 %). QRMs can be used in multistage to select suitable variables to forecast extreme asthma events. The associations between asthma and environmental factors, including temperature, ozone and carbon monoxide can be exploited in predicting future events using QRMs.

Forecasting peak asthma admissions in London: an application of quantile regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soyiri, Ireneous N.; Reidpath, Daniel D.; Sarran, Christophe

2013-07-01

Asthma is a chronic condition of great public health concern globally. The associated morbidity, mortality and healthcare utilisation place an enormous burden on healthcare infrastructure and services. This study demonstrates a multistage quantile regression approach to predicting excess demand for health care services in the form of asthma daily admissions in London, using retrospective data from the Hospital Episode Statistics, weather and air quality. Trivariate quantile regression models (QRM) of asthma daily admissions were fitted to a 14-day range of lags of environmental factors, accounting for seasonality in a hold-in sample of the data. Representative lags were pooled to form multivariate predictive models, selected through a systematic backward stepwise reduction approach. Models were cross-validated using a hold-out sample of the data, and their respective root mean square error measures, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values compared. Two of the predictive models were able to detect extreme number of daily asthma admissions at sensitivity levels of 76 % and 62 %, as well as specificities of 66 % and 76 %. Their positive predictive values were slightly higher for the hold-out sample (29 % and 28 %) than for the hold-in model development sample (16 % and 18 %). QRMs can be used in multistage to select suitable variables to forecast extreme asthma events. The associations between asthma and environmental factors, including temperature, ozone and carbon monoxide can be exploited in predicting future events using QRMs.

Air quality in Delhi during the CommonWealth Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrapu, P.; Cheng, Y.; Beig, G.; Sahu, S.; Srinivas, R.; Carmichael, G. R.

2014-04-01

Air quality during The CommonWealth Games (CWG, held in Delhi in October 2010) is analyzed using a new air quality forecasting system established for the Games. The CWG stimulated enhanced efforts to monitor and model air quality in the region. The air quality of Delhi during the CWG had high levels of particles with mean values of PM2.5 and PM10 at the venues of 111 and 238 μg m-3, respectively. Black carbon (BC) accounted for ∼10% of the PM2.5 mass. It is shown that BC, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations are well predicted, but with positive biases of ∼25%. The diurnal variations are also well captured, with both the observations and the modeled values showing nighttime maxima and daytime minima. A new emissions inventory, developed as part of this air quality forecasting initiative, is evaluated by comparing the observed and predicted species-species correlations (i.e., BC : CO; BC : PM2.5; PM2.5 : PM10). Assuming that the observations at these sites are representative and that all the model errors are associated with the emissions, then the modeled concentrations and slopes can be made consistent by scaling the emissions by: 0.6 for NOx, 2 for CO, and 0.7 for BC, PM2.5 and PM10. The emission estimates for particles are remarkably good considering the uncertainty in the estimates due to the diverse spread of activities and technologies that take place in Delhi and the rapid rates of change. The contribution of various emission sectors including transportation, power, domestic and industry to surface concentrations are also estimated. Transport, domestic and industrial sectors all make significant contributions to PM levels in Delhi, and the sectoral contributions vary spatially within the city. Ozone levels in Delhi are elevated, with hourly values sometimes exceeding 100 ppb. The continued growth of the transport sector is expected to make ozone pollution a more pressing air pollution problem in Delhi. The sector analysis provides useful inputs into the design of strategies to reduce air pollution levels in Delhi. The contribution for sources outside of Delhi on Delhi air quality range from ∼25% for BC and PM to ∼60% for day time ozone. The significant contributions from non-Delhi sources indicates that in Delhi (as has been show elsewhere) these strategies will also need a more regional perspective.

Extending the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System to Hemispheric Scales: Overview of Process Considerations and Initial Applications

PubMed Central

Mathur, Rohit; Xing, Jia; Gilliam, Robert; Sarwar, Golam; Hogrefe, Christian; Pleim, Jonathan; Pouliot, George; Roselle, Shawn; Spero, Tanya L.; Wong, David C.; Young, Jeffrey

2018-01-01

The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system is extended to simulate ozone, particulate matter, and related precursor distributions throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Modelled processes were examined and enhanced to suitably represent the extended space and time scales for such applications. Hemispheric scale simulations with CMAQ and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed for multiple years. Model capabilities for a range of applications including episodic long-range pollutant transport, long-term trends in air pollution across the Northern Hemisphere, and air pollution-climate interactions are evaluated through detailed comparison with available surface, aloft, and remotely sensed observations. The expansion of CMAQ to simulate the hemispheric scales provides a framework to examine interactions between atmospheric processes occurring at various spatial and temporal scales with physical, chemical, and dynamical consistency. PMID:29681922

The Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): an integrated environmental model tuned for tropical areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Saulo R.; Panetta, Jairo; Longo, Karla M.; Rodrigues, Luiz F.; Moreira, Demerval S.; Rosário, Nilton E.; Silva Dias, Pedro L.; Silva Dias, Maria A. F.; Souza, Enio P.; Freitas, Edmilson D.; Longo, Marcos; Frassoni, Ariane; Fazenda, Alvaro L.; Silva, Cláudio M. Santos e.; Pavani, Cláudio A. B.; Eiras, Denis; França, Daniela A.; Massaru, Daniel; Silva, Fernanda B.; Santos, Fernando C.; Pereira, Gabriel; Camponogara, Gláuber; Ferrada, Gonzalo A.; Campos Velho, Haroldo F.; Menezes, Isilda; Freire, Julliana L.; Alonso, Marcelo F.; Gácita, Madeleine S.; Zarzur, Maurício; Fonseca, Rafael M.; Lima, Rafael S.; Siqueira, Ricardo A.; Braz, Rodrigo; Tomita, Simone; Oliveira, Valter; Martins, Leila D.

2017-01-01

We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS), in which different previous versions for weather, chemistry, and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated modeling system software. This new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and memory usage efficiency. The description of the main model features includes several examples illustrating the quality of the transport scheme for scalars, radiative fluxes on surface, and model simulation of rainfall systems over South America at different spatial resolutions using a scale aware convective parameterization. Additionally, the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the convection and carbon dioxide concentration over the Amazon Basin, as well as carbon dioxide fluxes from biogenic processes over a large portion of South America, are shown. Atmospheric chemistry examples show the model performance in simulating near-surface carbon monoxide and ozone in the Amazon Basin and the megacity of Rio de Janeiro. For tracer transport and dispersion, the model capabilities to simulate the volcanic ash 3-D redistribution associated with the eruption of a Chilean volcano are demonstrated. The gain of computational efficiency is described in some detail. BRAMS has been applied for research and operational forecasting mainly in South America. Model results from the operational weather forecast of BRAMS on 5 km grid spacing in the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, INPE/Brazil, since 2013 are used to quantify the model skill of near-surface variables and rainfall. The scores show the reliability of BRAMS for the tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Requirements for keeping this modeling system competitive regarding both its functionalities and skills are discussed. Finally, we highlight the relevant contribution of this work to building a South American community of model developers.

Air-quality implications of widespread adoption of cool roofs on ozone and particulate matter in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Lee, S. M.; Katzenstein, A. S.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Zhang, X.; Farina, S.; Vahmani, P.; Fine, P.; Epstein, S. A.

2017-12-01

The installation of roofing materials with increased solar reflectance (i.e., "cool roofs") can mitigate the urban heat island effect and reduce energy use. In addition, meteorological changes, along with the possibility of enhanced UV reflection from these surfaces, can have complex impacts on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. We aim to evaluate the air-quality impacts of widespread cool-roof installations prescribed by building energy efficiency standards within the heavily populated and polluted South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) in Southern California. Development of a comprehensive rooftop area database and evaluation of spectral reflectance measurements of roofing materials allows us to predict potential future changes in solar and UV reflectance for simulations using the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. Meteorological simulations indicate a decrease in daily maximum temperatures, daily maximum boundary layer heights, and ventilation coefficients throughout the SoCAB upon widespread installation of cool roofs. CMAQ simulations show significant increases in PM2.5 concentrations and policy-relevant design values. Changes in 8-h ozone concentrations depend on the potential change in UV reflectance, ranging from a decrease in population-weighted concentrations when UV reflectance remains unchanged to an increase when changes in UV reflectance are at an upper bound. However, 8-h policy-relevant ozone design values increase in all cases. Although the other benefits of cool roofs could outweigh small air-quality penalties, UV reflectance standards for cool roofing materials could mitigate these negative consequences. Results of this study motivate the careful consideration of future rooftop and pavement solar reflectance modification policies.

A WRF sensitivity study for summer ozone and winter PM events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Z.; Chen, J.; Mahmud, A.; Di, P.; Avise, J.; DaMassa, J.; Kaduwela, A. P.

2014-12-01

Elevated summer ozone and winter PM frequently occur in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SCAB) in California. Meteorological conditions, such as wind, temperature and planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) play crucial roles in these air pollution events. Therefore, accurate representation of these fields from a meteorological model is necessary to successfully reproduce these air pollution events in subsequent air quality model simulations. California's complex terrain and land-sea interface can make it challenging for meteorological models to replicate the atmospheric conditions over the SJV and SCAB during extreme pollution events. In this study, the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) over these two regions for a summer month (July 2012) and a winter month (January 2013) is evaluated with different model configurations and forcing. Different land surface schemes (Pleim-Xiu vs. hybrid scheme), the application of observational and soil nudging, two SST datasets (the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) SST vs. the default SST from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) reanalysis), and two land use datasets (the National Land Cover Data (NLCD) 2006 40-category vs. USGS 24-category land use data) have been tested. Model evaluation will focus on both surface and vertical profiles for wind, temperature, relative humidity, as well as PBLH. Sensitivity of the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) results to different WRF configurations will also be presented and discussed.

Optimization of artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms for surface ozone concentration forecasting.

PubMed

Pires, J C M; Gonçalves, B; Azevedo, F G; Carneiro, A P; Rego, N; Assembleia, A J B; Lima, J F B; Silva, P A; Alves, C; Martins, F G

2012-09-01

This study proposes three methodologies to define artificial neural network models through genetic algorithms (GAs) to predict the next-day hourly average surface ozone (O(3)) concentrations. GAs were applied to define the activation function in hidden layer and the number of hidden neurons. Two of the methodologies define threshold models, which assume that the behaviour of the dependent variable (O(3) concentrations) changes when it enters in a different regime (two and four regimes were considered in this study). The change from one regime to another depends on a specific value (threshold value) of an explanatory variable (threshold variable), which is also defined by GAs. The predictor variables were the hourly average concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide, nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), and O(3) (recorded in the previous day at an urban site with traffic influence) and also meteorological data (hourly averages of temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed). The study was performed for the period from May to August 2004. Several models were achieved and only the best model of each methodology was analysed. In threshold models, the variables selected by GAs to define the O(3) regimes were temperature, CO and NO(2) concentrations, due to their importance in O(3) chemistry in an urban atmosphere. In the prediction of O(3) concentrations, the threshold model that considers two regimes was the one that fitted the data most efficiently.

An Analysis of the Extratropical Transition of Hurricane Arthur (2014) from a JPSS Proving Ground Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folmer, M. J.; Berndt, E.; Halverson, J. B.; Dunion, J. P.; Goldberg, M.

2015-12-01

As part of the GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Proving Grounds, multiple proxy and operational products were available to analyze and forecast the complex evolution of Hurricane Arthur (2014). The National Hurricane Center, Ocean Prediction Center, Weather Prediction Center, and NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch were able to monitor the tropical and extratropical transition of Arthur using various convective and red, green, blue (RGB) products that have been introduced in recent years. During the extratropical transition, the Air Mass RGB (AM RGB) product and AIRS/CrIS ozone products were available as a compliment to water vapor imagery to identify the upper-level low with associated stratospheric drying that absorbed much of Arthur's energy. The AM RGB product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses that are combined into a single image and can help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. Even though this product provides a wealth of qualitative information about the horizontal distribution of synoptic features, forecasters are also interested in more quantitative information such as the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and ozone which impact the coloring of the resulting AM RGB. Currently, NOAA Unique CrIS/ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture soundings are available in AWIPS-II as a point-based display. Traditionally, soundings are used to anticipate and forecast severe convection, however unique and valuable information can be gained from soundings for other forecasting applications, such as extratropical transition, especially in data sparse regions. Additional research has been conducted to look at how NUCAPS soundings might help forecasters identify the pre-extratropical transition environment, leading to earlier diagnosis and better public advisories. NUCAPS soundings, AIRS soundings, NOAA G-IV GPS dropwindsondes, and the AM RGB were analyzed leading up to and during Arthur's tropical to extratropical transition. The presentation will focus on the use of NUCAPS in concert with the AM RGB product to analyze Arthur's extratropical transition for use in NWS operations.

Representing the effects of stratosphere–troposphere ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Downward transport of ozone (O3) from the stratosphere can be a significant contributor to tropospheric O3 background levels. However, this process often is not well represented in current regional models. In this study, we develop a seasonally and spatially varying potential vorticity (PV)-based function to parameterize upper tropospheric and/or lower stratospheric (UTLS) O3 in a chemistry transport model. This dynamic O3–PV function is developed based on 21-year ozonesonde records from World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre (WOUDC) with corresponding PV values from a 21-year Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulation across the Northern Hemisphere from 1990 to 2010. The result suggests strong spatial and seasonal variations of O3 ∕ PV ratios which exhibits large values in the upper layers and in high-latitude regions, with highest values in spring and the lowest values in autumn over an annual cycle. The newly developed O3 ∕ PV function was then applied in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for an annual simulation of the year 2006. The simulated UTLS O3 agrees much better with observations in both magnitude and seasonality after the implementation of the new parameterization. Considerable impacts on surface O3 model performance were found in the comparison with observations from three observational networks, i.e., EMEP, CASTNET and WDCGG. With the new parameterization, the negative bias in spring is reduced from

Dry deposition velocities in the global multi-scale CTM MOCAGE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michou, M.; Peuch, V.-H.

2003-04-01

Surface exchanges considered in the MOCAGE multiscale Chemistry and Transport Model (CTM) of Météo-France include dry deposition of gaseous species. To compute realistic time-dependent fluxes at the surface, a 2D interface between MOCAGE and ARPEGE, the French operational numerical weather prediction model, has been developed. Dry deposition of species including ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen-containing compounds, long-lived and short-lived intermediates organic compounds, have been parameterised according to the [Wesely, 1989] scheme. A number of modifications has been made, for instance concerning the deposition against wet surfaces. The formulation of the aerodynamic resistance follows [Louis, 1979], and that of the stomatal resistance, the Interaction Soil Biosphere Atmosphere (ISBA) Météo-France scheme. Resistances are computed using the surface meteorological fields obtained from the analyses or forecasts of ARPEGE. Vegetation fields such as the Leaf Area Index are prescribed with a one-degree spatial resolution at the global scale, and a five-minute resolution over Europe. Calculated dry deposition velocities of ozone, sulfur dioxide and nitric acid have been evaluated against field experimental data at various locations around the world, from tropical regions, rain forest or savannah over Central Africa and Amazonia (EXPRESSO and LBA campaigns), to Mediterranean regions, including forested and crop sites (ESCOMPTE campaign), and temperate areas (deciduous and evergreen forests). Hourly values, monthly and seasonal means have been examined, as well as the impact of the model resolution, from 2 degrees over the globe to 0.08 degrees over regional domains. The contributions to the global budget of ozone of the deposition fluxes in these different regions of the globe will be also presented.

The Brazilian Developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): An Integrated Environmental Model Tuned for Tropical Areas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freitas, Saulo R.; Panetta, Jairo; Longo, Karla M.; Rodrigues, Luiz F.; Moreira, Demerval S.; Rosario, Nilton E.; Silva Dias, Pedro L.; Silva Dias, Maria A. F.; Souza, Enio P.; Freitas, Edmilson D.;

Towards a Solid Foundation of Using Remotely Sensed Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence for Crop Monitoring and Yield Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.; Sun, Y.; You, L.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The growing demand for food production due to population increase coupled with high vulnerability to volatile environmental changes poses a paramount challenge for mankind in the coming century. Real-time crop monitoring and yield forecasting must be a key part of any solution to this challenge as these activities provide vital information needed for effective and efficient crop management and for decision making. However, traditional methods of crop growth monitoring (e.g., remotely sensed vegetation indices) do not directly relate to the most important function of plants - photosynthesis and therefore crop yield. The recent advance in the satellite remote sensing of Solar-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), an integrative photosynthetic signal from molecular origin and a direct measure of plant functions holds great promise for real-time monitoring of crop growth conditions and forecasting yields. In this study, we use satellite measurements of SIF from both the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) onboard MetOp-A and the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellites to estimate crop yield using both process-based and statistical models. We find that SIF-based crop yield well correlates with the global yield product Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) derived from ground surveys for all major crops including maize, soybean, wheat, sorghum, and rice. The potential and challenges of using upcoming SIF satellite missions for crop monitoring and prediction will also be discussed.

Contribution of emissions to concentrations: the TAGGING 1.0 submodel based on the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy 2.52)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grewe, Volker; Tsati, Eleni; Mertens, Mariano; Frömming, Christine; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-07-01

Questions such as what is the contribution of road traffic emissions to climate change? or what is the impact of shipping emissions on local air quality? require a quantification of the contribution of specific emissions sectors to the concentration of radiatively active species and air-quality-related species, respectively. Here, we present a diagnostics package, implemented in the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy), which keeps track of the contribution of source categories (mainly emission sectors) to various concentrations. The diagnostics package is implemented as a submodel (TAGGING) of EMAC (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry). It determines the contributions of 10 different source categories to the concentration of ozone, nitrogen oxides, peroxyacytyl nitrate, carbon monoxide, non-methane hydrocarbons, hydroxyl, and hydroperoxyl radicals ( = tagged tracers). The source categories are mainly emission sectors and some other sources for completeness. As emission sectors, road traffic, shipping, air traffic, anthropogenic non-traffic, biogenic, biomass burning, and lightning are considered. The submodel obtains information on the chemical reaction rates, online emissions, such as lightning, and wash-out rates. It then solves differential equations for the contribution of a source category to each of the seven tracers. This diagnostics package does not feed back to any other part of the model. For the first time, it takes into account chemically competing effects: for example, the competition between NOx, CO, and non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) in the production and destruction of ozone. We show that the results are in-line with results from other tagging schemes and provide plausibility checks for concentrations of trace gases, such as OH and HO2, which have not previously been tagged. The budgets of the tagged tracers, i.e. the contribution from individual source categories (mainly emission sectors) to, e.g., ozone, are only marginally sensitive to changes in model resolution, though the level of detail increases. A reduction in road traffic emissions by 5 % shows that road traffic global tropospheric ozone is reduced by 4 % only, because the net ozone productivity increases. This 4 % reduction in road traffic tropospheric ozone corresponds to a reduction in total tropospheric ozone by ≈ 0.3 %, which is compensated by an increase in tropospheric ozone from other sources by 0.1 %, resulting in a reduction in total tropospheric ozone of ≈ 0.2 %. This compensating effect compares well with previous findings. The computational costs of the TAGGING submodel are low with respect to computing time, but a large number of additional tracers are required. The advantage of the tagging scheme is that in one simulation and at every time step and grid point, information is available on the contribution of different emission sectors to the ozone budget, which then can be further used in upcoming studies to calculate the respective radiative forcing simultaneously.

Effects of Changing Emissions on Ozone and Particulates in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frost, G. J.; McKeen, S.; Trainer, M.; Ryerson, T.; Holloway, J.; Brock, C.; Middlebrook, A.; Wollny, A.; Matthew, B.; Williams, E.; Lerner, B.; Fortin, T.; Sueper, D.; Parrish, D.; Fehsenfeld, F.; Peckham, S.; Grell, G.; Peltier, R.; Weber, R.; Quinn, P.; Bates, T.

2004-12-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from electric power generation have decreased in recent years due to changes in burner technology and fuels used. Mobile NOx emissions assessments are less certain, since they must account for increases in vehicle miles traveled, changes in the proportion of diesel and gasoline vehicles, and more stringent controls on engines and fuels. The impact of these complicated emission changes on a particular region's air quality must be diagnosed by a combination of observation and model simulation. The New England Air Quality Study - Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation 2004 (NEAQS-ITCT 2004) program provides an opportunity to test the effects of changes in emissions of NOx and other precursors on air quality in the northeastern United States. An array of ground, marine, and airborne observation platforms deployed during the study offer checks on emission inventories and air quality model simulations, like those of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem). Retrospective WRF-Chem runs are carried out with two EPA inventories, one compiled for base year 1999 and an update for 2004 incorporating projected and known changes in emissions during the past 5 years. Differences in model predictions of ozone, particulates, and other tracers using the two inventories are investigated. The inventories themselves and the model simulations are compared with the extensive observations available during NEAQS-ITCT 2004. Preliminary insights regarding the sensitivity of the model to NOx emission changes are discussed.

Performance tuning Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on Intel Xeon Phi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mielikainen, Jarno; Huang, Bormin; Huang, Allen H.

2015-10-01

Next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, is a designed for dual use for forecasting and research. WRF offers multiple physics options that can be combined in any way. One of the physics options is radiance computation. The major source for energy for the earth's climate is solar radiation. Thus, it is imperative to accurately model horizontal and vertical distribution of the heating. Goddard solar radiative transfer model includes the absorption duo to water vapor,ozone, ozygen, carbon dioxide, clouds and aerosols. The model computes the interactions among the absorption and scattering by clouds, aerosols, molecules and surface. Finally, fluxes are integrated over the entire longwave spectrum.In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is familiar one to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discusses in this paper. The optimizations improved the performance of the original Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 2.2x. Furthermore, the same optimizations improved the performance of the Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme on a dual socket configuration of eight core Intel Xeon E5-2670 CPUs by a factor of 2.1x compared to the original Goddard longwave radiative transfer scheme code.

Effect of heat waves on VOC emissions from vegetation and urban air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; Bonn, B.; Butler, T. M.

2015-12-01

Programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures, increase carbon storage, storm water control, provision of space for recreation, as well as poverty alleviation. Although these multiple benefits speak positively for urban greening programs, the programs do not take into account how close human and natural systems are coupled in urban areas. Elevated temperatures together with anthropogenic emissions of air and water pollutants distinguish the urban system. Urban and sub-urban vegetation responds to ambient changes and reacts with pollutants. Neglecting this coupling may lead to unforeseen drawbacks of urban greening programs. The potential for emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions to produce ozone has long been recognized. This potential increases under rising temperatures. Here we investigate how heat waves affect emissions of VOC from urban vegetation and corresponding ground-level ozone. In this study we use Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks in Berlin, Germany during the 2006 heat wave. VOC emissions from vegetation are simulated with MEGAN 2.0 coupled with WRF-CHEM. Our preliminary results indicate that contribution of VOCs from vegetation to ozone formation may increase by more than twofold during the heat wave period. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas under changing climate and discuss associated tradeoffs.

Characterization of tropospheric ozone based on lidar measurement in Hangzhou, East China during the G20 Leaders' Summit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Wenjing; Liu, Cheng; Fan, Guangqiang; Hu, Qihou; Huang, Xin; Dong, Yunsheng; Zhang, Tianshu; Liu, Jianguo

2017-04-01

Owing to the G20 (Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors) Leaders' Summit (Sep.5th-6th, 2016), a series of strict air quality control measures were implemented in Hangzhou and its surrounding regions from Aug.26th to Sep.6th. A differential absorption lidar was employed to monitor tropospheric ozone in urban Hangzhou during a campaign from Aug. 24th to Sep. 10th, and the satellite-based NO2 VCDs and HCHO VCDs in the troposphere were also retrieved using the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). During our campaign, six O3 pollution events, which were determined according to the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of China (GB-3095-2012), and two stages with rapid reduction of O3 concentration on Aug. 26th and Sep.4-6th were observed. The temporal variation tendency of O3 concentrations was well reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Typical cases with the abrupt rise and decline of O3 concentrations were analyzed using Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectory, satellite NO2 and HCHO product and the prediction by WRF-Chem model. The transport from northern cities have an important impact on pollutants observed in Hangzhou, and the chemical sensitivity of O3 production, which were approximately evaluated using the ratio of HCHO VCDs to NO2 VCDs in the troposphere, was turned from a mixed VOC-NOx-limited regime into a NOX-limited regime in Hangzhou due to the strict emission control measures.

Denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khosrawi, Farahnaz; Kirner, Oliver; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Johansson, Sören; Höpfner, Michael; Santee, Michelle L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Ungermann, Jörn; Ruhnke, Roland; Woiwode, Wolfgang; Oelhaf, Hermann; Braesicke, Peter

2017-11-01

The 2015/2016 Arctic winter was one of the coldest stratospheric winters in recent years. A stable vortex formed by early December and the early winter was exceptionally cold. Cold pool temperatures dropped below the nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) existence temperature of about 195 K, thus allowing polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) to form. The low temperatures in the polar stratosphere persisted until early March, allowing chlorine activation and catalytic ozone destruction. Satellite observations indicate that sedimentation of PSC particles led to denitrification as well as dehydration of stratospheric layers. Model simulations of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter nudged toward European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data were performed with the atmospheric chemistry-climate model ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) for the Polar Stratosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC) campaign. POLSTRACC is a High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) mission aimed at the investigation of the structure, composition and evolution of the Arctic upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The chemical and physical processes involved in Arctic stratospheric ozone depletion, transport and mixing processes in the UTLS at high latitudes, PSCs and cirrus clouds are investigated. In this study, an overview of the chemistry and dynamics of the 2015/2016 Arctic winter as simulated with EMAC is given. Further, chemical-dynamical processes such as denitrification, dehydration and ozone loss during the 2015/2016 Arctic winter are investigated. Comparisons to satellite observations by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS) as well as to airborne measurements with the Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere (GLORIA) performed aboard HALO during the POLSTRACC campaign show that the EMAC simulations nudged toward ECMWF analysis generally agree well with observations. We derive a maximum polar stratospheric O3 loss of ˜ 2 ppmv or 117 DU in terms of column ozone in mid-March. The stratosphere was denitrified by about 4-8 ppbv HNO3 and dehydrated by about 0.6-1 ppmv H2O from the middle to the end of February. While ozone loss was quite strong, but not as strong as in 2010/2011, denitrification and dehydration were so far the strongest observed in the Arctic stratosphere in at least the past 10 years.

Probabilistic Predictions of PM2.5 Using a Novel Ensemble Design for the NAQFC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, R.; Lee, J. A.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.; Lee, P.

2017-12-01

Poor air quality (AQ) in the U.S. is estimated to cause about 60,000 premature deaths with costs of 100B-150B annually. To reduce such losses, the National AQ Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) produces forecasts of ozone, particulate matter less than 2.5 mm in diameter (PM2.5), and other pollutants so that advance notice and warning can be issued to help individuals and communities limit the exposure and reduce air pollution-caused health problems. The current NAQFC, based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Community Multi-scale AQ (CMAQ) modeling system, provides only deterministic AQ forecasts and does not quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions, which could be large due to the chaotic nature of atmosphere and nonlinearity in atmospheric chemistry. This project aims to take NAQFC a step further in the direction of probabilistic AQ prediction by exploring and quantifying the potential value of ensemble predictions of PM2.5, and perturbing three key aspects of PM2.5 modeling: the meteorology, emissions, and CMAQ secondary organic aerosol formulation. This presentation focuses on the impact of meteorological variability, which is represented by three members of NOAA's Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system that were down-selected by hierarchical cluster analysis. These three SREF members provide the physics configurations and initial/boundary conditions for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model runs that generate required output variables for driving CMAQ that are missing in operational SREF output. We conducted WRF runs for Jan, Apr, Jul, and Oct 2016 to capture seasonal changes in meteorology. Estimated emissions of trace gases and aerosols via the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel (SMOKE) system were developed using the WRF output. WRF and SMOKE output drive a 3-member CMAQ mini-ensemble of once-daily, 48-h PM2.5 forecasts for the same four months. The CMAQ mini-ensemble is evaluated against both observations and the current operational deterministic NAQFC products, and analyzed to assess the impact of meteorological biases on PM2.5 variability. Quantification of the PM2.5 prediction uncertainty will prove a key factor to support cost-effective decision-making while protecting public health.

Stratospheric cooling and polar ozone loss due to H2 emissions of a global hydrogen economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feck, T.; Grooß, J.-U.; Riese, M.; Vogel, B.

2009-04-01

"Green" hydrogen is seen as a major element of the future energy supply to reduce greenhouse gas emissions substantially. However, due to the possible interactions of hydrogen (H2) with other atmospheric constituents there is a need to analyse the implications of additional atmospheric H2 that could result from hydrogen leakage of a global hydrogen infrastructure. Emissions of molecular H2 can occur along the whole hydrogen process chain which increase the tropospheric H2 burden. Across the tropical tropopause H2 reaches the stratosphere where it is oxidised and forms water vapour (H2O). This causes increased IR-emissions into space and hence a cooling of the stratosphere. Both effects, the increase of stratospheric H2O and the cooling, enhances the potential of chlorine activation on liquid sulfate aerosol and polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which increase polar ozone destruction. Hence a global hydrogen economy could provoke polar ozone loss and could lead to a substantial delay of the current projected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer. Our investigations show that even if 90% of the current global fossil primary energy input could be replaced by hydrogen and approximately 9.5% of the product gas would leak to the atmosphere, the ozone loss would be increased between 15 to 26 Dobson Units (DU) if the stratospheric CFC loading would retain unchanged. A consistency check of the used approximation methods with the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS) shows that this additional ozone loss can probably be treated as an upper limit. Towards more realistic future H2 leakage rate assumptions (< 3%) the additional ozone loss would be rather small (? 10 DU). However, in all cases the full damage would only occur if stratospheric CFC-levels would retain unchanged. Due to the CFC-prohibition as a result of the Montreal Protocol the forecasts suggest a decline of the stratospheric CFC loading about 50% until 2050. In this case our calculations show that the addition effect would account for only less than 4 DU which is equivalent to 1% of the current unperturbed ozone layer over the polar regions (? 400 DU). Hence the risk of a substantial damage to the stratospheric ozone layer due to H2-emissions of a hydrogen economy is low compared to the positive climate implications that would evolve from the avoidance of greenhouse gas emissions.

THE USE OF AIR QUALITY FORECASTS TO ASSESS IMPACTS OF AIR POLLUTION ON CROPS: METHODOLOGY AND CASE STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

It has been reported that ambient ozone (O₃), either alone or in concurrence with acid rain precursors, accounts for up to 90% of U.S. crop losses resulting from exposure to all major air pollutants. Crop damage due to O₃ exposure is of particular concern as...

Aviation weather service requirements, 1980 - 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lieurance, N. A.

1977-01-01

Future aviation weather needs are discussed. Priority weather requirements and deficiencies existing for weather observations and forecast services in terminal areas are presented. Needs in en route operations up to 30 km are addressed with emphasis on turbulence, presence of suspended ice and water particles, SST to supersonic speeds, solar radiation, ozone, and sonic booms. Some conclusions are drawn and recommendations are presented.

Air-quality implications of widespread adoption of cool roofs on ozone and particulate matter in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Epstein, Scott A.; Lee, Sang-Mi; Katzenstein, Aaron S.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Zhang, Xinqiu; Farina, Salvatore C.; Vahmani, Pouya; Fine, Philip M.; Ban-Weiss, George

2017-08-01

The installation of roofing materials with increased solar reflectance (i.e., “cool roofs”) can mitigate the urban heat island effect and reduce energy use. In addition, meteorological changes, along with the possibility of enhanced UV reflection from these surfaces, can have complex impacts on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. We aim to evaluate the air-quality impacts of widespread cool-roof installations prescribed by California’s Title 24 building energy efficiency standards within the heavily populated and polluted South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Development of a comprehensive rooftop area database and evaluation of spectral reflectance measurements of roofing materials allows us to project potential future changes in solar and UV reflectance for simulations using the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. 2012 meteorological simulations indicate a decrease in daily maximum temperatures, daily maximum boundary layer heights, and ventilation coefficients throughout the SoCAB upon widespread installation of cool roofs. CMAQ simulations show significant increases in PM2.5 concentrations and policy-relevant design values. Changes in 8-h ozone concentrations depend on the potential change in UV reflectance, ranging from a decrease in population-weighted concentrations when UV reflectance remains unchanged to an increase when changes in UV reflectance are at an upper bound. However, 8-h policy-relevant ozone design values increase in all cases. Although the other benefits of cool roofs could outweigh small air-quality penalties, UV reflectance standards for cool roofing materials could mitigate these negative consequences. Results of this study motivate the careful consideration of future rooftop and pavement solar reflectance modification policies.

Air-quality implications of widespread adoption of cool roofs on ozone and particulate matter in southern California

PubMed Central

Lee, Sang-Mi; Katzenstein, Aaron S.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Zhang, Xinqiu; Farina, Salvatore C.; Vahmani, Pouya; Fine, Philip M.

2017-01-01

The installation of roofing materials with increased solar reflectance (i.e., “cool roofs”) can mitigate the urban heat island effect and reduce energy use. In addition, meteorological changes, along with the possibility of enhanced UV reflection from these surfaces, can have complex impacts on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations. We aim to evaluate the air-quality impacts of widespread cool-roof installations prescribed by California’s Title 24 building energy efficiency standards within the heavily populated and polluted South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Development of a comprehensive rooftop area database and evaluation of spectral reflectance measurements of roofing materials allows us to project potential future changes in solar and UV reflectance for simulations using the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. 2012 meteorological simulations indicate a decrease in daily maximum temperatures, daily maximum boundary layer heights, and ventilation coefficients throughout the SoCAB upon widespread installation of cool roofs. CMAQ simulations show significant increases in PM2.5 concentrations and policy-relevant design values. Changes in 8-h ozone concentrations depend on the potential change in UV reflectance, ranging from a decrease in population-weighted concentrations when UV reflectance remains unchanged to an increase when changes in UV reflectance are at an upper bound. However, 8-h policy-relevant ozone design values increase in all cases. Although the other benefits of cool roofs could outweigh small air-quality penalties, UV reflectance standards for cool roofing materials could mitigate these negative consequences. Results of this study motivate the careful consideration of future rooftop and pavement solar reflectance modification policies. PMID:28784778

Air-quality implications of widespread adoption of cool roofs on ozone and particulate matter in southern California.

PubMed

Epstein, Scott A; Lee, Sang-Mi; Katzenstein, Aaron S; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Zhang, Xinqiu; Farina, Salvatore C; Vahmani, Pouya; Fine, Philip M; Ban-Weiss, George

2017-08-22

The installation of roofing materials with increased solar reflectance (i.e., "cool roofs") can mitigate the urban heat island effect and reduce energy use. In addition, meteorological changes, along with the possibility of enhanced UV reflection from these surfaces, can have complex impacts on ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations. We aim to evaluate the air-quality impacts of widespread cool-roof installations prescribed by California's Title 24 building energy efficiency standards within the heavily populated and polluted South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Development of a comprehensive rooftop area database and evaluation of spectral reflectance measurements of roofing materials allows us to project potential future changes in solar and UV reflectance for simulations using the Weather Research Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. 2012 meteorological simulations indicate a decrease in daily maximum temperatures, daily maximum boundary layer heights, and ventilation coefficients throughout the SoCAB upon widespread installation of cool roofs. CMAQ simulations show significant increases in PM 2.5 concentrations and policy-relevant design values. Changes in 8-h ozone concentrations depend on the potential change in UV reflectance, ranging from a decrease in population-weighted concentrations when UV reflectance remains unchanged to an increase when changes in UV reflectance are at an upper bound. However, 8-h policy-relevant ozone design values increase in all cases. Although the other benefits of cool roofs could outweigh small air-quality penalties, UV reflectance standards for cool roofing materials could mitigate these negative consequences. Results of this study motivate the careful consideration of future rooftop and pavement solar reflectance modification policies.

Effect of VOC emissions from vegetation on urban air quality during hot periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, Galina; Kuik, Friderike; Bonn, Boris; Lauer, Axel; Grote, Ruediger; Butler, Tim

2016-04-01

Programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures, increase of carbon storage, storm water control, and recreational space, as well as at poverty alleviation. These urban greening programs, however, do not take into account how closely human and natural systems are coupled in urban areas. Compared with the surroundings of cities, elevated temperatures together with high anthropogenic emissions of air and water pollutants are quite typical in urban systems. Urban and sub-urban vegetation respond to changes in meteorology and air quality and can react to pollutants. Neglecting this coupling may lead to unforeseen negative effects on air quality resulting from urban greening programs. The potential of emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants to produce ozone has long been recognized. This ozone formation potential increases under rising temperatures. Here we investigate how emissions of VOC from urban vegetation affect corresponding ground-level ozone and PM10 concentrations in summer and especially during heat wave periods. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks in the Berlin-Brandenburg region, Germany during the two summers of 2006 (heat wave) and 2014 (reference period). VOC emissions from vegetation are calculated by MEGAN 2.0 coupled online with WRF-CHEM. Our preliminary results indicate that the contribution of VOCs from vegetation to ozone formation may increase by more than twofold during heat wave periods. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas in the context of a changing climate and discuss potential tradeoffs of urban greening programs.

Multi-year objective analyses of warm season ground-level ozone and PM2.5 over North America using real-time observations and Canadian operational air quality models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robichaud, A.; Ménard, R.

2013-05-01

We present multi-year objective analyses (OA) on a high spatio-temporal resolution (15 or 21 km, every hour) for the warm season period (1 May-31 October) for ground-level ozone (2002-2012) and for fine particulate matter (diameter less than 2.5 microns (PM2.5)) (2004-2012). The OA used here combines the Canadian Air Quality forecast suite with US and Canadian surface air quality monitoring sites. The analysis is based on an optimal interpolation with capabilities for adaptive error statistics for ozone and PM2.5 and an explicit bias correction scheme for the PM2.5 analyses. The estimation of error statistics has been computed using a modified version of the Hollingsworth-Lönnberg's (H-L) method. Various quality controls (gross error check, sudden jump test and background check) have been applied to the observations to remove outliers. An additional quality control is applied to check the consistency of the error statistics estimation model at each observing station and for each hour. The error statistics are further tuned "on the fly" using a χ2 (chi-square) diagnostic, a procedure which verifies significantly better than without tuning. Successful cross-validation experiments were performed with an OA set-up using 90% of observations to build the objective analysis and with the remainder left out as an independent set of data for verification purposes. Furthermore, comparisons with other external sources of information (global models and PM2.5 satellite surface derived measurements) show reasonable agreement. The multi-year analyses obtained provide relatively high precision with an absolute yearly averaged systematic error of less than 0.6 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) and 0.7 μg m-3 (micrograms per cubic meter) for ozone and PM2.5 respectively and a random error generally less than 9 ppbv for ozone and under 12 μg m-3 for PM2.5. In this paper, we focus on two applications: (1) presenting long term averages of objective analysis and analysis increments as a form of summer climatology and (2) analyzing long term (decadal) trends and inter-annual fluctuations using OA outputs. Our results show that high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 are both following a decreasing trend overall in North America with the eastern part of United States (US) presenting the highest decrease likely due to more effective pollution controls. Some locations, however, exhibited an increasing trend in the mean ozone and PM2.5 such as the northwestern part of North America (northwest US and Alberta). The low percentiles are generally rising for ozone which may be linked to increasing emissions from emerging countries and the resulting pollution brought by the intercontinental transport. After removing the decadal trend, we demonstrate that the inter-annual fluctuations of the high percentiles are significantly correlated with temperature fluctuations for ozone and precipitation fluctuations for PM2.5. We also show that there was a moderately significant correlation between the inter-annual fluctuations of the high percentiles of ozone and PM2.5 with economic indices such as the Industrial Dow Jones and/or the US gross domestic product growth rate.

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-1996 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Browell, E. V.

2000-01-01

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude northern lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS); the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occultation instrument. Time series for the different data sets are consistent with each other, and diverge from model time series during December and January. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be much less sensitive to the model photochemistry than to the model vertical transport, which depends on the model vertical motion as well as the model vertical gradient. We evaluate the dependence of model ozone evolution on the model ozone gradient by comparing simulations with different initial conditions for ozone. The modeled ozone throughout December and January most closely resembles observed ozone when the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. We make a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty in the vertical advection using diabatic trajectory calculations. The net transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The observed and modeled ozone time series during December and January are consistent when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Observed and modelled “chemical weather” during ESCOMPTE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufour, A.; Amodei, M.; Ancellet, G.; Peuch, V.-H.

2005-03-01

The new MOdèle de Chimie Atmosphérique à Grande Echelle (MOCAGE) three-dimensional multiscale chemistry and transport model (CTM) has been applied to study heavy pollution episodes observed during the ESCOMPTE experiment. The model considers the troposphere and lower stratosphere, and allows the possibility of zooming from the planetary scale down to the regional scale over limited area subdomains. Like this, it generates its own time-dependent chemical boundary conditions in the vertical and in the horizontal. This paper focuses on the evaluation and quantification of uncertainties related to chemical and transport modelling during two intensive observing periods, IOP2 and IOP4 (June 20-26 and July 10-14, 2001, respectively). Simulations are compared to the database of four-dimensional observations, which includes ground-based sites and aircraft measurements, radiosoundings, and quasi-continuous measurements of ozone by LIDARs. Thereby, the observed and modelled day-to-day variabilities in air composition both at the surface and in the vertical have been assessed. Then, three sensitivity studies are conducted concerning boundary conditions, accuracy of the emission dataset, and representation of chemistry. Firstly, to go further in the analysis of chemical boundary conditions, results from the standard grid nesting set-up and altered configurations, relying on climatologies, are compared. Along with other recent studies, this work advocates the systematic coupling of limited-area models with global CTMs, even for regional air quality studies or forecasts. Next, we evaluate the benefits of using the detailed high-resolution emissions inventory of ESCOMPTE: improvements are noticeable both on ozone reactivity and on the concentrations of various species of the ozone photochemical cycle especially primary ones. Finally, we provide some insights on the comparison of two simulations differing only by the parameterisation of chemistry and using two state-of-the-art chemical schemes for regional photochemical modelling. Regional air quality modelling is found to be highly sensitive to the emission inventory dataset and also to the vertical and horizontal boundary conditions and detailed representation of chemistry. Interestingly enough, they infer the same range of errors compared to total model errors.

Sensitivity of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and ozone to land surface processes and vegetation distributions in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, C.; Huang, M.; Fast, J. D.; Berg, L. K.; Qian, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Gu, D.; Shrivastava, M. B.; Liu, Y.; Walters, S.; Jin, J.

2014-12-01

Current climate models still have large uncertainties in estimating biogenic trace gases, which can significantly affect secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation and ultimately aerosol radiative forcing. These uncertainties result from many factors, including coupling strategy between biogenic emissions and land-surface schemes and specification of vegetation types, both of which can affect the simulated near-surface fluxes of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In this study, sensitivity experiments are conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) to examine the sensitivity of simulated VOCs and ozone to land surface processes and vegetation distributions in California. The measurements collected during the California Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Experiment (CalNex) and the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) conducted during May and June of 2010 provide a good opportunity to evaluate the simulations. First, the biogenic VOC emissions in the WRF-Chem simulations with the two land surface schemes, Noah and CLM4, are estimated by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version one (MEGANv1), which has been publicly released and widely used with WRF-Chem. The impacts of land surface processes on estimating biogenic VOC emissions and simulating VOCs and ozone are investigated. Second, in this study, a newer version of MEGAN (MEGANv2.1) is coupled with CLM4 as part of WRF-Chem to examine the sensitivity of biogenic VOC emissions to the MEGAN schemes used and determine the importance of using a consistent vegetation map between a land surface scheme and the biogenic VOC emission scheme. Specifically, MEGANv2.1 is embedded into the CLM4 scheme and shares a consistent vegetation map for estimating biogenic VOC emissions. This is unlike MEGANv1 in WRF-Chem that uses a standalone vegetation map that differs from what is used in land surface schemes. Furthermore, we examine the impact of vegetation distribution on simulating VOCs and ozone by comparing coupled WRF-Chem-CLM-MEGANv2.1 simulations using multiple vegetation maps.

A WRF/Chem sensitivity study using ensemble modelling for a high ozone episode in Slovenia and the Northern Adriatic area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žabkar, Rahela; Koračin, Darko; Rakovec, Jože

2013-10-01

A high ozone (O3) concentrations episode during a heat wave event in the Northeastern Mediterranean was investigated using the WRF/Chem model. To understand the major model uncertainties and errors as well as the impacts of model inputs on the model accuracy, an ensemble modelling experiment was conducted. The 51-member ensemble was designed by varying model physics parameterization options (PBL schemes with different surface layer and land-surface modules, and radiation schemes); chemical initial and boundary conditions; anthropogenic and biogenic emission inputs; and model domain setup and resolution. The main impacts of the geographical and emission characteristics of three distinct regions (suburban Mediterranean, continental urban, and continental rural) on the model accuracy and O3 predictions were investigated. In spite of the large ensemble set size, the model generally failed to simulate the extremes; however, as expected from probabilistic forecasting the ensemble spread improved results with respect to extremes compared to the reference run. Noticeable model nighttime overestimations at the Mediterranean and some urban and rural sites can be explained by too strong simulated winds, which reduce the impact of dry deposition and O3 titration in the near surface layers during the nighttime. Another possible explanation could be inaccuracies in the chemical mechanisms, which are suggested also by model insensitivity to variations in the nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions. Major impact factors for underestimations of the daytime O3 maxima at the Mediterranean and some rural sites include overestimation of the PBL depths, a lack of information on forest fires, too strong surface winds, and also possible inaccuracies in biogenic emissions. This numerical experiment with the ensemble runs also provided guidance on an optimum model setup and input data.

Biomass burning influences on ozone during the SAMBBA aircraft campaign.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keslake, Tim; Chiperfield, Martyn; Mann, Graham; Flemming, Johannes; Morgan, Will; Darbyshire, Eoghan; Remy, Sam; Dhomse, Sandip; Pope, Richard; Reddington, Carly

2017-04-01

Ozone (O3) is an air pollutant and a greenhouse gas. It is detrimental to human and plant health, damaging plant stomata and therefore limiting photosynthesis. O3 is both formed and lost via the interconversion between nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2); the relative amount of O3 produced depends on the amount of NOx (NO + NO2) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which indirectly compete with O3 to oxidise NO back into NO2, leading to more O3. The Amazon region has some of the lowest background O3 levels on the planet (˜20 ppb) and is a NOx-limited environment for ozone production. During the tropical dry season emissions of NOx and VOCs from both tropical and savannah fires lead to a large increase in O3mixing ratios over the Amazon. With a predicted increase in non-agricultural fire activities, due to a changing climate it is important to understand how much O3is being formed in the Amazon and the sensitivity of this to fire and other emissions. The amount of O3 is potentially of additional importance as the Amazon forest is the largest single land carbon sink on the planet, with an estimated net annual sink of 2.4 pG C yr-1, which could be limited by O3 plant damage. Despite this, detailed observation of O3and its precursors in the Amazon have been limited. However, the SAMBBA field campaign (September- October 2012) provides an opportunity to observe in-situ O3formation. The ECMWF C-IFS (Composition Integrated Forecast System) developed under MACC and continued under CAMS, provides global operational forecasts and re-analyses of atmospheric composition at high spatial resolution (T255, ˜80km). In this study, we present results from C-IFS experiments for the SAMBBA period, with and without composition data assimilation, exploring how well the C-IFS represents biomass burning influences on O3in the Amazon. The aim is to test our understanding of O3formation and precursor emissions as well as the capability of the C-IFS for air quality forecasts. The flight campaign showed average O3 values of 43 ppb, over tropical vegetation in the dry season with larger values observed in the upper troposphere during the wet season (61ppb). The largest surface O3values were observed over the eastern savannah region (75 ppb), where NOx emissions were most significant. Comparisons to the C-IFS show that the model persistently underestimated O3value compared to the in-situ observations (MFB -39%). The bias is thought to be caused by an underestimation of both fire and lightning NOx emissions in the model. When NOx emissions are improved by assimilation of OMI satellite NO2 data in the Eastern region, O3values show a smaller overestimation compared to the observations (MFB 4%).

Fractional kalman filter to estimate the concentration of air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vita Oktaviana, Yessy; Apriliani, Erna; Khusnul Arif, Didik

2018-04-01

Air pollution problem gives important effect in quality environment and quality of human’s life. Air pollution can be caused by nature sources or human activities. Pollutant for example Ozone, a harmful gas formed by NOx and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from various sources. The air pollution problem can be modeled by TAPM-CTM (The Air Pollution Model with Chemical Transport Model). The model shows concentration of pollutant in the air. Therefore, it is important to estimate concentration of air pollutant. Estimation method can be used for forecast pollutant concentration in future and keep stability of air quality. In this research, an algorithm is developed, based on Fractional Kalman Filter to solve the model of air pollution’s problem. The model will be discretized first and then it will be estimated by the method. The result shows that estimation of Fractional Kalman Filter has better accuracy than estimation of Kalman Filter. The accuracy was tested by applying RMSE (Root Mean Square Error).

Detection of Ice Polar Stratospheric Clouds from Assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Benson, Craig; Liu, Hui-Chun; Pawson, Steven; Chang, Ping; Riishojgaard, Lars Peter

2006-01-01

A novel technique is presented for detection of ice polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) that form at extremely low temperatures in the lower polar stratosphere during winter. Temperature is a major factor in determining abundance of PSCs, which in turn provide surfaces for heterogeneous chemical reactions leading to ozone loss and radiative cooling. The technique infers the presence of ice PSCs using radiances from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) in the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. Brightness temperatures are computed from short-term GEOS-5 forecasts for several hundred AIRS channels, using a radiation transfer module. The differences between collocated AIRS observations and these computed values are the observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals in the assimilation system. Because the radiation model assumes clear-sky conditions, we hypothesize that these O-F residuals contain quantitative information about PSCs. This is confirmed using sparse data from the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III occultation instrument. The analysis focuses on 0-F residuals for the 6.79pm AIRS moisture channel. At coincident locations, when POAM III detects ice clouds, the AIRS O-F residuals for this channel are lower than -2K. When no ice PSCs are evident in POAM III data, the AIRS 0-F residuals are larger. Given this relationship, the high spatial density of AIRS data is used to construct maps of regions where 0-F residuals are lower than -2K, as a proxy for ice PSCs. The spatial scales and spatio-temporal variations of these PSCs in the Antarctic and Arctic are discussed on the basis of these maps.

Effect of different emission inventories on modeled ozone and carbon monoxide in Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amnuaylojaroen, T.; Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Carmichael, G. R.; Kreasuwun, J.; Prasitwattanaseree, S.; Chantara, S.

2014-12-01

In order to improve our understanding of air quality in Southeast Asia, the anthropogenic emissions inventory must be well represented. In this work, we apply different anthropogenic emission inventories in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) version 3.3 using Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) gas-phase chemistry and Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) aerosols to examine the differences in predicted carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) surface mixing ratios for Southeast Asia in March and December 2008. The anthropogenic emission inventories include the Reanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO), the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B), the MACCity emissions (adapted from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate and megacity Zoom for the Environment projects), the Southeast Asia Composition, Cloud, Climate Coupling Regional Study (SEAC4RS) emissions, and a combination of MACCity and SEAC4RS emissions. Biomass-burning emissions are from the Fire Inventory from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (FINNv1) model. WRF-Chem reasonably predicts the 2 m temperature, 10 m wind, and precipitation. In general, surface CO is underpredicted by WRF-Chem while surface O3 is overpredicted. The NO2 tropospheric column predicted by WRF-Chem has the same magnitude as observations, but tends to underpredict the NO2 column over the equatorial ocean and near Indonesia. Simulations using different anthropogenic emissions produce only a slight variability of O3 and CO mixing ratios, while biomass-burning emissions add more variability. The different anthropogenic emissions differ by up to 30% in CO emissions, but O3 and CO mixing ratios averaged over the land areas of the model domain differ by ~4.5% and ~8%, respectively, among the simulations. Biomass-burning emissions create a substantial increase for both O3 and CO by ~29% and ~16%, respectively, when comparing the March biomass-burning period to the December period with low biomass-burning emissions. The simulations show that none of the anthropogenic emission inventories are better than the others for predicting O3 surface mixing ratios. However, the simulations with different anthropogenic emission inventories do differ in their predictions of CO surface mixing ratios producing variations of ~30% for March and 10-20% for December at Thai surface monitoring sites.

Improved Products for Assimilation and Model Validation from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on Aqua

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pagano, Thomas S.

2008-01-01

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in the 3.7-15.4 micrometer spectral region with spectral resolution of better than 1200. Key channels from the AIRS Level 1B calibrated radiance product are currently assimilated into operational weather forecasts at NCEP and other international agencies. Additional Level 2 products for assimilation include the AIRS cloud cleared radiances and the geophysical retrieved temperature and water vapor profiles. The AIRS products are also used to validate climate model vertical and horizontal biases and transport of water vapor and key trace gases including Carbon Dioxide and Ozone. The wide variety of products available from the AIRS make it well suited to study processes affecting the interaction of these products.

Simulating the impacts of chronic ozone exposure on plant conductance and photosynthesis, and on the regional hydroclimate using WRF/Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jialun; Mahalov, Alex; Hyde, Peter

2016-11-01

The Noah-Multiparameterization land surface model in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) is modified to include the effects of chronic ozone exposure (COE) on plant conductance and photosynthesis (PCP) found from field experiments. Based on the modified WRF/Chem, the effects of COE on regional hydroclimate have been investigated over the continental United States. Our results indicate that the model with/without modification in its current configuration can reproduce the rainfall and temperature patterns of the observations and reanalysis data, although it underestimates rainfall in the central Great Plains and overestimates it in the eastern coast states. The experimental tests on the effects of COE include setting different thresholds of ambient ozone concentrations ([O3]) and using different linear regressions to quantify PCP against the COE. Compared with the WRF/Chem control run (i.e., without considering the effects of COE), the modified model at different experiment setups improves the simulated estimates of rainfall and temperatures in Texas and regions to the immediate north. The simulations in June, July and August of 2007-2012 show that surface [O3] decrease latent heat fluxes (LH) by 10-27 W m-2, increase surface air temperatures (T 2) by 0.6 °C-2.0 °C, decrease rainfall by 0.9-1.4 mm d-1, and decrease runoff by 0.1-0.17 mm d-1 in Texas and surrounding areas, all of which highly depends on the precise experiment setup, especially the [O3] threshold. The mechanism producing these results is that COE decreases the LH and increases sensible heat fluxes, which in turn increases the Bowen ratios and air temperatures. This lowering of the LH also results in the decrease of convective potential and finally decreases convective rainfall. Employing this modified WRF/Chem model in any high [O3] region can improve the understanding of the interactions of vegetation, meteorology, chemistry/emissions, and crop productivity.

Chemistry of Volatile Organic Compounds in the Los Angeles Basin: Formation of Oxygenated Compounds and Determination of Emission Ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Gouw, J. A.; Gilman, J. B.; Kim, S.-W.; Alvarez, S. L.; Dusanter, S.; Graus, M.; Griffith, S. M.; Isaacman-VanWertz, G.; Kuster, W. C.; Lefer, B. L.; Lerner, B. M.; McDonald, B. C.; Rappenglück, B.; Roberts, J. M.; Stevens, P. S.; Stutz, J.; Thalman, R.; Veres, P. R.; Volkamer, R.; Warneke, C.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Young, C. J.

2018-02-01

We analyze an expanded data set of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs) in air measured by several instruments at a surface site in Pasadena near Los Angeles during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration California Nexus study in 2010. The contributions of emissions, chemical formation, and removal are quantified for each OVOC using CO as a tracer of emissions and the OH exposure of the sampled air masses calculated from hydrocarbon ratios. The method for separating emissions from chemical formation is evaluated using output for Pasadena from the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry model. The model is analyzed by the same method as the measurement data, and the emission ratios versus CO calculated from the model output agree for ketones with the inventory used in the model but overestimate aldehydes by 70%. In contrast with the measurements, nighttime formation of OVOCs is significant in the model and is attributed to overestimated precursor emissions and overestimated rate coefficients for the reactions of the precursors with ozone and NO3. Most measured aldehydes correlated strongly with CO at night, suggesting a contribution from motor vehicle emissions. However, the emission ratios of most aldehydes versus CO are higher than those reported in motor vehicle emissions and the aldehyde sources remain unclear. Formation of several OVOCs is investigated in terms of the removal of specific precursors. Direct emissions of alcohols and aldehydes contribute significantly to OH reactivity throughout the day, and these emissions should be accurately represented in models describing ozone formation.

Environmental contributions to allergic disease.

PubMed

Levetin, E; Van de Water, P

2001-11-01

The environment is a major contributor to allergic disease, and great effort is being expended to identify the chemical pollutants and allergens that make a significant impact. Exposure to high levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and diesel exhaust particles is known to reduce lung function. Studies continue to delineate the role of these particles as adjuvants and carriers of allergens into the respiratory system. Current studies also show the exacerbation of allergic disease through fungal spore inhalation and continue to document the role of pollen in allergic rhinitis. Pollen also was recently associated with asthma epidemics, especially after thunderstorms. Forecasting models currently are being developed that predict the trajectories of pollen dispersal and may allow increased avoidance of dangerous outdoor conditions.

Climate Throughout Geologic Time Was Cooled by Sequences of Explosive Volcanic Eruptions Forming Aerosols That Reflect and Scatter Ultraviolet Solar Radiation and Warmed by Relatively Continuous Extrusion of Basaltic Lava that Depletes Ozone, Allowing More Solar Ultraviolet Radiation to Reach Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. L.

2015-12-01

Active volcanoes of all sizes and eruptive styles, emit chlorine and bromine gases observed to deplete ozone. Effusive, basaltic volcanic eruptions, typical in Hawaii and Iceland, extrude large lava flows, depleting ozone and causing global warming. Major explosive volcanoes also deplete ozone with the same emissions, causing winter warming, but in addition eject megatons of water and sulfur dioxide into the lower stratosphere where they form sulfuric-acid aerosols whose particles grow large enough to reflect and scatter ultraviolet sunlight, causing net global cooling for a few years. The relative amounts of explosive and effusive volcanism are determined by the configuration of tectonic plates moving around Earth's surface. Detailed studies of climate change throughout geologic history, and since 1965, are not well explained by greenhouse-gas theory, but are explained quite clearly at OzoneDepletionTheory.info. Ozone concentrations vary substantially by the minute and show close relationships to weather system highs and lows (as pointed out by Dobson in the 1920s), to the height of the tropopause, and to the strength and location of polar vortices and jet streams. Integrating the effects of volcanism on ozone concentrations and the effects of ozone concentrations on synoptic weather patterns should improve weather forecasting. For example, the volcano Bárðarbunga, in central Iceland, extruded 85 km2 of basaltic lava between August 29, 2014, and February 28, 2015, having a profound effect on weather. Most surprising, more than a week before the March 4 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, substantial amounts of ozone were released in the vicinity of the volcano precisely when surface deformation showed that magma first began moving up from sills below 4 km depth. Ozone similarly appears to have been emitted 3.5 months before the Pinatubo eruption in 1991. Readily available daily maps of ozone concentrations may allow early warning of an imminent volcanic eruption.

NOAA's National Air Quality Predictions and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for the Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stajner, I.; Hou, Y. T.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Upadhayay, S.

2016-12-01

NOAA provides operational air quality predictions using the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC): ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States and airborne dust for the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. NOAA's predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) became publicly available in February 2016. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are produced using a system that operationally links the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the North American mesoscale forecast Model (NAM). Smoke and dust predictions are provided using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Current NAQFC focus is on updating CMAQ to version 5.0.2, improving PM2.5 predictions, and updating emissions estimates, especially for NOx using recently observed trends. Wildfire smoke emissions from a newer version of the USFS BlueSky system are being included in a new configuration of the NAQFC NAM-CMAQ system, which is re-run for the previous 24 hours when the wildfires were observed from satellites, to better represent wildfire emissions prior to initiating predictions for the next 48 hours. In addition, NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to represent the earth system for extended weather prediction. NGGPS will include a representation of atmospheric dynamics, physics, aerosols and atmospheric composition as well as coupling with ocean, wave, ice and land components. NGGPS is being developed with a broad community involvement, including community developed components and academic research to develop and test potential improvements for potentially inclusion in NGGPS. Several investigators at NOAA's research laboratories and in academia are working to improve the aerosol and gaseous chemistry representation for NGGPS, to develop and evaluate the representation of atmospheric composition, and to establish and improve the coupling with radiation and microphysics. Additional efforts may include the improved use of predicted atmospheric composition in assimilation of observations and the linkage of full global atmospheric composition predictions with national air quality predictions.

Numerical study of Asian dust transport during the springtime of 2001 simulated with the Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uno, Itsushi; Satake, Shinsuke; Carmichael, Gregory R.; Tang, Youhua; Wang, Zifa; Takemura, Toshihiko; Sugimoto, Nobuo; Shimizu, Atsushi; Murayama, Toshiyuki; Cahill, Thomas A.; Cliff, Steven; Uematsu, Mitsuo; Ohta, Sachio; Quinn, Patricia K.; Bates, Timothy S.

2004-10-01

The regional-scale aerosol transport model Chemical Weather Forecasting System (CFORS) is used for analysis of large-scale dust phenomena during the Asian Pacific Regional Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) intensive observation. Dust modeling results are examined with the surface weather reports, satellite-derived dust index (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index (AI)), Mie-scattering lidar observation, and surface aerosol observations. The CFORS dust results are shown to accurately reproduce many of the important observed features. Model analysis shows that the simulated dust vertical loading correlates well with TOMS AI and that the dust loading is transported with the meandering of the synoptic-scale temperature field at the 500-hPa level. Quantitative examination of aerosol optical depth shows that model predictions are within 20% difference of the lidar observations for the major dust episodes. The structure of the ACE-Asia Perfect Dust Storm, which occurred in early April, is clarified with the help of the CFORS model analysis. This storm consisted of two boundary layer components and one elevated dust (>6-km height) feature (resulting from the movement of two large low-pressure systems). Time variation of the CFORS dust fields shows the correct onset timing of the elevated dust for each observation site, but the model results tend to overpredict dust concentrations at lower latitude sites. The horizontal transport flux at 130°E longitude is examined, and the overall dust transport flux at 130°E during March-April is evaluated to be 55 Tg.

Evaluation of the stomatal conductance formulation in the EMEP ozone deposition model for Picea abies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieser, G.; Emberson, L. D.

It is widely acknowledged that the possible impacts of ozone on forest trees are more closely related to ozone flux through the stomata than to external ozone exposure. However, the application of the flux approach on a European scale requires the availability of appropriate models, such as the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) ozone deposition model, for estimating ozone flux and cumulative ozone uptake. Within this model stomatal conductance is the key variable, since it determines the amount of ozone absorbed by the leaves. This paper describes the suitability of the existing EMEP ozone deposition model parameterisation and formulation to represent stomatal behaviour determined from field measurements on adult Norway spruce ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) trees in the Central European Alps. Parameters affecting maximum stomatal conductance (e.g. seasonal phenology, needle position, needle age, nutrient deficiency and ozone itself) and stomatal response functions to temperature, irradiance, vapour pressure deficit, and soil water content are investigated. Finally, current limitations and possible alterations of the EMEP model will be discussed with respect to spatial scales of available input data for future flux modelling.

Using Satellite-Based Earth Science Data in a Public Health Decision-Support System to Track and Forecast Pollen Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudspeth, W. B.; Budge, A.

2013-12-01

There is widespread recognition within the public health community that ongoing changes in climate are expected to increasingly pose threats to human health. Environmentally induced health risks to populations with respiratory illnesses are a growing concern globally. Of particular concern are dust and smoke events carrying PM2.5 and PM10 particle sizes, ozone, and pollen. There is considerable interest in documenting the precise linkages between changing patterns in the climate and how these shifts impact the prevalence of respiratory illnesses. The establishment of these linkages can drive the development of early warning and forecasting systems to alert health care professionals of impending air-quality events. As a component of a larger NASA-funded project on Integration of Airborne Dust Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems, the Earth Data Analysis Center (EDAC) at the University of New Mexico, is developing web-based visualization and analysis services for forecasting pollen concentration data. This decision-support system, New Mexico's Environmental Public Health Tracking System (NMEPHTS), funded by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Environmental Public Health Tracking Network (EPHTN), aims to improve health awareness and services by linking health effects data with levels and frequency of environmental exposure. The forecast of atmospheric events with high pollen concentrations has employed a modified version of the DREAM (Dust Regional Atmospheric Model, a verified model for atmospheric dust transport modeling. In this application, PREAM (Pollen Regional Atmospheric Model) models pollen emission using a MODIS-derived phenology of Juniperus spp. communities. Model outputs are verified and validated with ground-based records of pollen release timing and quantities. Outputs of the PREAM model are post-processed and archived in EDAC's Geographic Storage, Transformation, and Retrieval Engine (GStore) database. The GStore geospatial services platform provides general purpose web services based upon the REST service model, and is capable of data discovery, access, and publication functions, metadata delivery functions, data transformation, and auto-generated OGC services for those data products that can support those services. These services are in turn ingested by New Mexico's EPHTN where end users in the public health community can then assess environmental-pubic health data associations. Advances in web mapping and related technologies open new doors for data providers and users that can deliver data and information in near-real time. In the public health community these technologies are being used to enhance disease and syndromic surveillance systems, visualize environmentally-related events such as pollen and dust events, and to provide focused mapping and analysis capabilities on the desktop. Here we present the current results of the project, and will focus on the challenges encountered in providing reliable and accurate forecast of pollen concentrations, as well as the experience of integrating output results and services into end user applications that can provide timely and meaningful alerts and forecasts.

Potential of the multispectral synergism for observing ozone pollution combining measurements of IASI-NG and UVNS onboard EPS-SG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costantino, Lorenzo; Cuesta, Juan; Emili, Emanuele; Foret, Gilles; Dufour, Gaëlle; Eremenko, Maxim; Chailleux, Yohann; Beekmann, Matthias; Flaud, Jean-Marie

2016-04-01

Current and future satellite observations offer a great potential for monitoring air quality on daily and global basis. However, measurements from currently in orbit sensors offer a limited capacity to probe surface concentrations of gaseous pollutants such as tropospheric ozone. Using single-band approaches based on IASI spaceborne thermal infrared measurements, only ozone down to the lower troposphere (3-4 km of altitude at lowest) may be observed (Eremenko et al., 2008). A recent multispectral method combining IASI and GOME-2 (both onboard MetOp satellites) spectra, respectively from the IR and UV, has shown enhanced sensitivity for probing ozone at the lowermost troposphere, but with maximum sensitivity around 2 km at lowest (Cuesta et al., 2013). Future spatial missions will be launched in the upcoming years, such as EPS-SG, carrying new generation sensors like IASI-NG and UVNS that will enhance the capacity to observe ozone pollution, and particularly when combining them through a multispectral synergism. This work presents an analysis of the potential of the multispectral synergism of IASI-NG and UVNS future spaceborne measurements for observing ozone pollution, performed in the framework of SURVEYOZON project (funded by the French Space Agency, CNES). For this, we develop a simulator of synthetic multispectral retrievals or pseudo-observations (referred as OSSE, Observing System Simulation Experiment) derived from IASI-NG+UVNS that will be compared to those from IASI+GOME2. In the first step of the OSSE, we create a pseudo-reality with simulations from the chemical-transport model MOCAGE (provided by CERFACS laboratory), where real O3 data from IASI and surface network stations have been assimilated for a realistic representation of ozone variability at the surface and the free troposphere. We focus on the high pollution event occurred in Europe on 10 July 2010. We use the coupled algorithms KOPRA+VLIDORT to simulate the spectra emitted, scattered and absorbed by the surface and atmospheric components and simulate the spectral measurements of IASI and GOME2. These spectra as used to retrieve O3 profiles that are then compared with the pseudo-reality. These pseudo-observations enable us to estimate the performances and associated errors of the innovative multispectral methodology implemented with IASI-NG (with finer spectral resolution and lower noise than IASI) and UVNS (with lower noise and finer horizontal resolution than GOME-2). In a second step, these pseudo-observations will be used to quantify the improvement in regional air pollution forecasts, when assimilating this new multispectral O3 product in a second chemical transport model (CHIMERE) independent from MOCAGE.

Forecasting and analyzing high O3 time series in educational area through an improved chaotic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Nor Zila Abd; Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md

2017-08-01

Forecasting and analyzing the ozone (O3) concentration time series is important because the pollutant is harmful to health. This study is a pilot study for forecasting and analyzing the O3 time series in one of Malaysian educational area namely Shah Alam using chaotic approach. Through this approach, the observed hourly scalar time series is reconstructed into a multi-dimensional phase space, which is then used to forecast the future time series through the local linear approximation method. The main purpose is to forecast the high O3 concentrations. The original method performed poorly but the improved method addressed the weakness thereby enabling the high concentrations to be successfully forecast. The correlation coefficient between the observed and forecasted time series through the improved method is 0.9159 and both the mean absolute error and root mean squared error are low. Thus, the improved method is advantageous. The time series analysis by means of the phase space plot and Cao method identified the presence of low-dimensional chaotic dynamics in the observed O3 time series. Results showed that at least seven factors affect the studied O3 time series, which is consistent with the listed factors from the diurnal variations investigation and the sensitivity analysis from past studies. In conclusion, chaotic approach has been successfully forecast and analyzes the O3 time series in educational area of Shah Alam. These findings are expected to help stakeholders such as Ministry of Education and Department of Environment in having a better air pollution management.

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI): towards a 14 Year Data Record and Applications in the Air Quality and Climate Domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levelt, P.; Joiner, J.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, P.; Bhartia, P. K.; Court, A. J.; Vlemmix, T.

2017-12-01

Keywords: emission monitoring, air quality, climate, atmospheric composition The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), launched on board of NASA's EOS-Aura spacecraft on July 15, 2004, provides unique contributions to the monitoring of the ozone layer, air quality and climate from space. With a data record of 13 years, OMI provides the longest NO2 and SO2 record from space, which is essential to understand the changes to emissions globally. The combination of urban scale resolution (13 x 24 km2 in nadir) and daily global coverage proved to be key features for the air quality community. Due to the operational Very Fast Delivery (VFD / direct readout) and Near Real Time (NRT) availability of the data, OMI also plays an important role in the early developments of operational services in the atmospheric chemistry domain. For example, OMI data is currently used operationally for improving air quality forecasts, for inverting high-resolution emission maps, the UV forecast and for volcanic plume warning systems for aviation. An overview of air quality applications, emission inventory inversions and trend analyses based on the OMI data record will be presented. An outlook will be given on the potentials of augmenting this record with the high resolution air quality measurements of TROPOMI (3,5 x 7 km2) and new satellite instrumentation entering the imaging domain, such as the TROPOLITE instrument ( 1 x 1 km2). Potential of imaging type of NO2 measurements in the the climate and air quality domain will be given, most notably on the use of high resolution NO2 measurements for pin-pointing anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Regional transport and dilution during high-pollution episodes in southern France: Summary of findings from the Field Experiment to Constraint Models of Atmospheric Pollution and Emissions Transport (ESCOMPTE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drobinski, P.; SaïD, F.; Ancellet, G.; Arteta, J.; Augustin, P.; Bastin, S.; Brut, A.; Caccia, J. L.; Campistron, B.; Cautenet, S.; Colette, A.; Coll, I.; Corsmeier, U.; Cros, B.; Dabas, A.; Delbarre, H.; Dufour, A.; Durand, P.; GuéNard, V.; Hasel, M.; Kalthoff, N.; Kottmeier, C.; Lasry, F.; Lemonsu, A.; Lohou, F.; Masson, V.; Menut, L.; Moppert, C.; Peuch, V. H.; Puygrenier, V.; Reitebuch, O.; Vautard, R.

2007-07-01

In the French Mediterranean basin the large city of Marseille and its industrialized suburbs (oil plants in the Fos-Berre area) are major pollutant sources that cause frequent and hazardous pollution episodes, especially in summer when intense solar heating enhances the photochemical activity and when the sea breeze circulation redistributes pollutants farther north in the countryside. This paper summarizes the findings of 5 years of research on the sea breeze in southern France and related mesoscale transport and dilution of pollutants within the Field Experiment to Constraint Models of Atmospheric Pollution and Emissions Transport (ESCOMPTE) program held in June and July 2001. This paper provides an overview of the experimental and numerical challenges identified before the ESCOMPTE field experiment and summarizes the key findings made in observation, simulation, and theory. We specifically address the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation to local ozone vertical distribution and the mesoscale processes driving horizontal advection of pollutants and vertical transport and mixing via entrainment at the top of the sea breeze or at the front and venting along the sloped terrain. The crucial importance of the interactions between processes of various spatial and temporal scales is thus highlighted. The advances in numerical modeling and forecasting of sea breeze events and ozone pollution episodes in southern France are also underlined. Finally, we conclude and point out some open research questions needing further investigation.

Evaluation of ACCMIP Outgoing Longwave Radiation from Tropospheric Ozone Using TES Satellite Observations.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, Kevin W.; Shindell, Drew Todd; Worden, H. M.; Lamarque, J. F.; Young, P. J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Qu, Z.; delaTorre, M.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.;

Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model.

PubMed

Nielsen, J Eric; Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M; Douglass, Anne R; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-12-01

NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near-real-time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided.

Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model

PubMed Central

Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E.; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Abstract NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near‐real‐time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)‐based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided. PMID:29497478

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.;

Ozone peaks associated with a subtropical tropopause fold and with the trade wind inversion: A case study from the airborne campaign TROPOZ II over the Caribbean in winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouget, Hervé; Cammas, Jean-Pierre; Marenco, Alain; Rosset, Robert; JonquièRes, Isabelle

1996-11-01

Aircraft measurements of ozone, methane, carbon monoxide, relative humidity, and equivalent potential temperature were performed during the TROPOZ II campaign. During the aircraft descent down to Pointe-à-Pitre (16.3°N, 61.5°W), at 2100 UTC on January 12, 1991, two ozone peaks (75 ppb) are observed, one at an altitude of 7.5 km and the other at 3.0 km. A physicochemical interpretation for each ozone peak is proposed in connection with the meteorological context, using radiosounding data, total ozone content from TOMS/NIMBUS 7 and diagnoses issued from analyses by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, England. The stratospheric origin of the 7.5-km ozone peak is inferred from negative correlations between ozone and its precursors and from diagnoses based on potential vorticity and ageostrophic circulations depicting the structure of the tropopause fold embedded in the subtropical jet front system. Using an appropriate method to isolate cross- and along-front ageostrophic circulations, we show that much of the observed structure of the tropopause fold can be ascribed to transverse and vertical circulations associated with the irrotational part of the flow. Though the downward extent of the subtropical tropopause fold (400 hPa) is restricted in comparison with typical extratropical tropopause ones (700 hPa), the present results suggest that subtropical tropopause folds may significantly contribute to the global stratosphere-troposphere ozone exchange. The origin of the 3.0-km ozone peak trapped just below the trade wind inversion cannot be ascribed precisely. Analogies with other measurements of dust and aerosols transported over the Atlantic or Pacific in the summer season are discussed. Various possibilities are examined: (1) an earlier stratospheric intrusion event, (2) long-range transport by the trade winds of biomass burning species emitted over West Africa, and (3) fast photochemical ozone formation occurring just below the trade wind inversion within already polluted air parcels originating from remote regions (United States and Gulf of Mexico) after eastward and southward transport around the western Atlantic anticyclone.

Tropospheric and stratospheric ozone from assimilation of Aura data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, I.; Wargan, K.; Chang, L.-P.; Hayashi, H.; Pawwson, S.; Froidevaux, L.; Livesey, N.; Bhartia, P. K.

2006-01-01

Ozone is an atmospheric trace gas with multiple impacts on the environment. Global ozone fields are needed for air quality predictions, estimation of the ultraviolet radiation reaching the surface, climate-radiation studies, and may also have an impact on longer-term weather predictions. We estimate global ozone fields in the stratosphere and troposphere by combining the data from EOS Aura satellite with an ozone model using data assimilation. Ozone exhibits a large temporal variability in the lower stratosphere. Our previous work showed that assimilation of satellite data from limb-sounding geometry helps constrain ozone profiles in that region. We assimilated ozone data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) into the ozone system at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). Ozone is transported within a general circulation model (GCM) which includes parameterizations for stratospheric photochemistry, tropospheric chemistry, and a simple scheme for heterogeneous ozone loss. The focus of this study is on the representation of ozone in the lower stratosphere and tropospheric ozone columns. We plan to extend studies of tropospheric ozone distribution through assimilation of ozone data from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES). Comparisons with ozone sondes and occultation data show that assimilation of Aura data reproduces ozone gradients and variability in the lower stratosphere well. We proceed by separating the contributions to temporal changes in the ozone field into those that are due to the model and those that are due to the assimilation of Aura data. The impacts of Aura data are illustrated and their role in the representation of ozone variability in the lower stratosphere and troposphere is shown.

Dynamical variability in the modelling of chemistry-climate interactions.

PubMed

Pyle, J A; Braesicke, P; Zeng, G

2005-01-01

We have used a version of the Met Office's climate model, into which we have introduced schemes for atmospheric chemistry, to study chemistry-dynamics-climate interactions. We have considered the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex, whose behaviour influences stratospheric ozone loss and will affect ozone recovery. In particular, we analyse the dynamical control of high latitude ozone in a model version which includes an assimilation of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), demonstrating the stability of the linear relation between vortex strength and high latitude ozone. We discuss the effect of interactive model ozone on polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) area/volume and winter-spring stratospheric ozone loss in the northern hemisphere. In general we find larger polar ozone losses calculated in those model integrations in which modelled ozone is used interactively in the radiation scheme, even though we underestimate the slope of the ozone loss per PSC volume relation derived from observations. We have also looked at the influence of changing stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange on the tropospheric oxidizing capacity and, in particular, have considered the variability of tropospheric composition under different climate regimes (El Niño/La Niña, etc.). Focusing on the UT/LS, we show the response of ozone to El Niño in two different model set-ups (tropospheric/ stratospheric). In the stratospheric model set-up we find a distinct signal in the lower tropical stratosphere, which shows an anti-correlation between the Niño 3 index and the ozone column amount. In contrast ozone generally increases in the upper troposphere of the tropospheric model set-up after an El Niño. Understanding future trends in stratospheric ozone and tropospheric oxidizing capacity requires an understanding of natural variability, which we explore here.

A modeling study of the impact of urban trees on ozone

Treesearch

David J. Nowak; Kevin L. Civerolo; S. Trivikrama Rao; Gopal Sistla; Christopher J. Luley; Daniel E. Crane

2000-01-01

Modeling the effects of increased urban tree cover on ozone concentrations (July 13-15, 1995) from Washington, DC, to central Massachusetts reveals that urban trees generally reduce ozone concentrations in cities, but tend to increase average ozone concentrations in the overall modeling domain. During the daytime, average ozone reductions in urban areas (1 ppb) were...

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-96 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Kawa, S. R.

2000-01-01

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite; and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occulation instrument, on board the French Satellite Pour I'Observations de la Terre. Comparisons of the different data sets with the model simulation are shown to provide complementary information and a consistent view of the ozone evolution. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be sensitive to the ozone vertical gradient and the model vertical transport, and only weakly sensitive to the model photochemistry. The most consistent comparison between observed and modeled ozone evolution is found for a simulation where the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. Diabatic trajectory calculations are used to estimate the uncertainty due to vertical advection quantitatively. The transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The model ozone evolution during December and January is broadly consistent with the observations when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Rood, Richard B.; Pawson, Steven

2002-01-01

A general circulation model (GCM) relies on various physical parameterizations and provides a solution to the atmospheric equations of motion. A data assimilation system (DAS) combines information from observations with a GCM forecast and produces analyzed meteorological fields that represent the observed atmospheric state. An off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM) can use winds and temperatures from a either a GCM or a DAS. The latter application is in common usage for interpretation of observations from various platforms under the assumption that the DAS transport represents the actual atmospheric transport. Here we compare the transport produced by a DAS with that produced by the particular GCM that is combined with observations to produce the analyzed fields. We focus on transport in the tropics and middle latitudes by comparing the age-of-air inferred from observations of SF6 and CO2 with the age-of-air calculated using GCM fields and DAS fields. We also compare observations of ozone, total reactive nitrogen, and methane with results from the two simulations. These comparisons show that DAS fields produce rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport produced by the DAS fields may be due to implicit forcing that is required by the assimilation process when there is bias between the GCM forecast and observations that are combined to produce the analyzed fields. For example, the GCM does not produce a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is present in the analyzed fields because it is present in the observations, and systematic implicit forcing is required by the DAS. Any systematic bias between observations and the GCM forecast used to produce the DAS analysis is likely to corrupt the transport produced by the analyzed fields. Evaluation of transport in the lower tropical stratosphere in a global chemistry and transport model.

Simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols with the climate model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Noije, T. P. C.; Le Sager, P.; Segers, A. J.; van Velthoven, P. F. J.; Krol, M. C.; Hazeleger, W.

2014-03-01

We have integrated the atmospheric chemistry and transport model TM5 into the global climate model EC-Earth version 2.4. We present an overview of the TM5 model and the two-way data exchange between TM5 and the integrated forecasting system (IFS) model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the atmospheric general circulation model of EC-Earth. In this paper we evaluate the simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in a one-way coupled configuration. We have carried out a decadal simulation for present-day conditions and calculated chemical budgets and climatologies of tracer concentrations and aerosol optical depth. For comparison we have also performed offline simulations driven by meteorological fields from ECMWF's ERA-Interim reanalysis and output from the EC-Earth model itself. Compared to the offline simulations, the online-coupled system produces more efficient vertical mixing in the troposphere, which likely reflects an improvement of the treatment of cumulus convection. The chemistry in the EC-Earth simulations is affected by the fact that the current version of EC-Earth produces a cold bias with too dry air in large parts of the troposphere. Compared to the ERA-Interim driven simulation, the oxidizing capacity in EC-Earth is lower in the tropics and higher in the extratropics. The methane lifetime is 7% higher in EC-Earth, but remains well within the range reported in the literature. We evaluate the model by comparing the simulated climatologies of surface carbon monoxide, tropospheric and surface ozone, and aerosol optical depth against observational data. The work presented in this study is the first step in the development of EC-Earth into an Earth system model with fully interactive atmospheric chemistry and aerosols.

Impact of parameterization choices on the restitution of ozone deposition over vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Morvan-Quéméner, Aurélie; Coll, Isabelle; Kammer, Julien; Lamaud, Eric; Loubet, Benjamin; Personne, Erwan; Stella, Patrick

2018-04-01

Ozone is a potentially phyto-toxic air pollutant, which can cause leaf damage and drastically alter crop yields, causing serious economic losses around the world. The VULNOZ (VULNerability to OZone in Anthropised Ecosystems) project is a biology and modeling project that aims to understand how plants respond to the stress of high ozone concentrations, then use a set of models to (i) predict the impact of ozone on plant growth, (ii) represent ozone deposition fluxes to vegetation, and finally (iii) estimate the economic consequences of an increasing ozone background the future. In this work, as part of the VULNOZ project, an innovative representation of ozone deposition to vegetation was developed and implemented in the CHIMERE regional chemistry-transport model. This type of model calculates the average amount of ozone deposited on a parcel each hour, as well as the integrated amount of ozone deposited to the surface at the regional or country level. Our new approach was based on a refinement of the representation of crop types in the model and the use of empirical parameters specific to each crop category. The results obtained were compared with a conventional ozone deposition modeling approach, and evaluated against observations from several agricultural areas in France. They showed that a better representation of the distribution between stomatal and non-stomatal ozone fluxes was obtained in the empirical approach, and they allowed us to produce a new estimate of the total amount of ozone deposited on the subtypes of vegetation at the national level.

A Reduced Form Model for Ozone Based on Two Decades of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Reduced Form Model (RFM) is a mathematical relationship between the inputs and outputs of an air quality model, permitting estimation of additional modeling without costly new regional-scale simulations. A 21-year Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) simulation for the continental United States provided the basis for the RFM developed in this study. Predictors included the principal component scores (PCS) of emissions and meteorological variables, while the predictand was the monthly mean of daily maximum 8-hour CMAQ ozone for the ozone season at each model grid. The PCS form an orthogonal basis for RFM inputs. A few PCS incorporate most of the variability of emissions and meteorology, thereby reducing the dimensionality of the source-receptor problem. Stochastic kriging was used to estimate the model. The RFM was used to separate the effects of emissions and meteorology on ozone concentrations. by running the RFM with emissions constant (ozone dependent on meteorology), or constant meteorology (ozone dependent on emissions). Years with ozone-conducive meteorology were identified, and meteorological variables best explaining meteorology-dependent ozone were identified. Meteorology accounted for 19% to 55% of ozone variability in the eastern US, and 39% to 92% in the western US. Temporal trends estimated for original CMAQ ozone data and emission-dependent ozone were mostly negative, but the confidence intervals for emission-dependent ozone are much

Understanding Differences in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Response to Changes in Chlorine and Temperature as Computed Using CCMVal Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Strahan, S. E.; Oman, L. D.

2012-01-01

Projections of future ozone levels are made using models that couple a general circulation model with a representation of atmospheric photochemical processes, allowing interactions among photochemical processes, radiation, and dynamics. Such models are known as chemistry and climate models (CCMs). Although developed from common principles and subject to the same boundary conditions, simulated ozone time series vary for projections of changes in ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases. In the upper stratosphere photochemical processes control ozone level, and ozone increases as ODSs decrease and temperature decreases due to greenhouse gas increase. Simulations agree broadly but there are quantitative differences in the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine and to temperature. We obtain insight into these differences in sensitivity by examining the relationship between the upper stratosphere annual cycle of ozone and temperature as produced by a suite of models. All simulations conform to expectation in that ozone is less sensitive to temperature when chlorine levels are highest because chlorine catalyzed loss is nearly independent of temperature. Differences in sensitivity are traced to differences in simulated temperature, ozone and reactive nitrogen when chlorine levels are close to background. This work shows that differences in the importance of specific processes underlie differences in simulated sensitivity of ozone to composition change. This suggests a) the multi-model mean is not a best estimate of the sensitivity of upper ozone to changes in ODSs and temperature; b) the spread of values is not an appropriate measure of uncertainty.

Analysis of Ozone in Cloudy Versus Clear Sky Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strode, Sarah; Douglass, Anne; Ziemke, Jerald

2016-01-01

Convection impacts ozone concentrations by transporting ozone vertically and by lofting ozone precursors from the surface, while the clouds and lighting associated with convection affect ozone chemistry. Observations of the above-cloud ozone column (Ziemke et al., 2009) derived from the OMI instrument show geographic variability, and comparison of the above-cloud ozone with all-sky tropospheric ozone columns from OMI indicates important regional differences. We use two global models of atmospheric chemistry, the GMI chemical transport model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 chemistry climate model, to diagnose the contributions of transport and chemistry to observed differences in ozone between areas with and without deep convection, as well as differences in clean versus polluted convective regions. We also investigate how the above-cloud tropospheric ozone from OMI can provide constraints on the relationship between ozone and convection in a free-running climate simulation as well as a CTM.

Current Applications of OMI Tropospheric NO2 Data for Air Quality and a Look to the Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pickering, Kenneth E.; Bucsela, E.; Allen, D.; Prados, A.; Gleason, J.; Kondragunta, S.

2010-01-01

Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Tropospheric NO2 products are being used to enhance the ability to monitor changes in NO2 air quality, update emission inventories, and evaluate regional air quality models. Trends in tropospheric column NO2 have been examined over the eastern United States in relation to emissions changes mandated by regulatory actions. Decreases of 20 to 40 percent over the period 2005 to 2008 were noted, largely in response to major emission reductions at power plants. The OMI data have been used to identify regions in which the opposite trend has been found. We have also used OMI NO2 in efforts to improve emission inventories for NOx emissions from soil. Lightning NOx emissions have been added to CMAQ, the US Environmental Protection Agency's regional air quality model. Evaluation of the resulting NO2 columns in the model is being conducted using the OMI NO2 observations. Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) together with the OMI NO2 data comprise a valuable tool for monitoring and predicting air quality. Looking to the future, we expect that the combination of Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) (morning) and OMI (afternoon) data sets obtained through use of the same retrieval algorithms will substantially increase the possibility of successful integration of satellite information into regional air quality forecast models. Farther down the road, we anticipate the Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) platform to supply data possibly on an hourly basis, allowing much more comprehensive analysis of air quality from space.

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of AIRS Temperature Soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Reale, Oreste

2010-01-01

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm, is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates delta T(p) for retrieved quantities and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 deg. latitude X 0.67 deg longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates delta (p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process. We compared forecasts analyses generated from the analyses done by assimilation of AIRS temperature profiles with three different sets of thresholds; Standard, Medium, and Tight. Assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature profiles significantly improve 5-7 day forecast skill compared to that obtained without the benefit of AIRS data in all of the cases studied. In addition, assimilation of Quality Controlled AIRS temperature soundings performs better than assimilation of AIRS observed radiances. Based on the experiments shown, Tight Quality Control of AIRS temperature profile performs best on the average from the perspective of improving Global 7 day forecast skill.

Potential sources of nitrous acid (HONO) and their impacts on ozone: A WRF-Chem study in a polluted subtropical region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Li; Wang, Tao; Zhang, Qiang; Zheng, Junyu; Xu, Zheng; Lv, Mengyao

2016-04-01

Current chemical transport models commonly undersimulate the atmospheric concentration of nitrous acid (HONO), which plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry, due to the lack or inappropriate representations of some sources in the models. In the present study, we parameterized up-to-date HONO sources into a state-of-the-art three-dimensional chemical transport model (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry: WRF-Chem). These sources included (1) heterogeneous reactions on ground surfaces with the photoenhanced effect on HONO production, (2) photoenhanced reactions on aerosol surfaces, (3) direct vehicle and vessel emissions, (4) potential conversion of NO2 at the ocean surface, and (5) emissions from soil bacteria. The revised WRF-Chem was applied to explore the sources of the high HONO concentrations (0.45-2.71 ppb) observed at a suburban site located within complex land types (with artificial land covers, ocean, and forests) in Hong Kong. With the addition of these sources, the revised model substantially reproduced the observed HONO levels. The heterogeneous conversions of NO2 on ground surfaces dominated HONO sources contributing about 42% to the observed HONO mixing ratios, with emissions from soil bacterial contributing around 29%, followed by the oceanic source (~9%), photochemical formation via NO and OH (~6%), conversion on aerosol surfaces (~3%), and traffic emissions (~2%). The results suggest that HONO sources in suburban areas could be more complex and diverse than those in urban or rural areas and that the bacterial and/or ocean processes need to be considered in HONO production in forested and/or coastal areas. Sensitivity tests showed that the simulated HONO was sensitive to the uptake coefficient of NO2 on the surfaces. Incorporation of the aforementioned HONO sources significantly improved the simulations of ozone, resulting in increases of ground-level ozone concentrations by 6-12% over urban areas in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta region. This result highlights the importance of accurately representing HONO sources in simulations of secondary pollutants over polluted regions.

Forecasting the atmospheric composition of southern West Africa with COSMO-ART during the DACCIWA measurement campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deetz, Konrad; Vogel, Bernhard

2017-04-01

The Dynamics-aerosol-chemistry-cloud interactions in West Africa (DACCIWA) project (Knippertz et al., 2015) investigates the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition over Southern West Africa (SWA). Between 1 June and 31 July 2016 the DACCIWA measurement campaign took place in SWA, including ground based and airborne observations. By using the regional scale comprehensive model system COSMO-ART (Vogel et al., 2009), operational numerical forecasts of the atmospheric composition including aerosols and gas phase compounds were conducted between 8 May and 31 July 2016. The forecasts cover the domain 25°W to 35°E and 20°S to 30°N with a grid mesh size of 28km and a lead time of 57h. The primary assignment of the forecasts was to support the DACCIWA aircraft campaign (27 June to 17 July 2016) in terms of the decision making of the flight routes of the research aircrafts. Visualizations of the forecast results were daily uploaded to the public available server dacciwa.sedoo.fr. Apart from the support of the DACCIWA measurement campaign, the COSMO-ART model dataset is highly valuable for identifying time periods feasible for post-campaign case study simulations, the extensive validation of COSMO-ART with observational data and the derivation of model climatologies to raise knowledge in meteorological and the atmospheric composition characteristics of SWA. The presentation will show validation results of the COSMO-ART forecasts with ground based and airborne measurements from the DACCIWA campaign as well as remote sensing observations. COSMO-ART well reproduces the diurnal cycle of the observed ozone concentration at Savé site and shows very good agreement of mineral dust AOD compared to CAMS model results whereas the anthropogenic aerosol seems to be overestimated by COSMO-ART compared to MODIS AOD and AERONET observations. We will present model climatologies of the NLLS characteristics and the spatial structure of the pollution plumes from the megacities along the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. The time period 25 June to 5 July 2016 was selected for a case study with COSMO-ART. For this time period the simulations were repeated with a grid mesh size of 5km by keeping the domain size nearly equal to the forecast domain described above but without parameterizing the convection. We will show selected results by focusing on the differences in the pollution plume structures compared to the COSMO-ART 28km simulations. Knippertz, P., Coe. H., Chiu, J. C., Evans, M. J., Fink, A. H., Kalthoff, N., Liousse, C., Mari, C., Allan, R. P., Brooks, B., Danour, S., Flamant, C., Jegede, O. O., Louhou, F., Marsham, J. H., 2015: The DACCIWA Project: Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa, BAMS September 2015, 1451-1460 Vogel, B., Vogel, H., Bäumer, D., Bangert, M., Lundgren, K., Rinke, R., Stanelle, T., 2009: The comprehensive model system COSMO-ART - Radiative impact of aerosol on the state of the atmosphere on the regional scale, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 8661-8680.

Comparing Model Ozone Loss during the SOLVE and SOLVE-2 Winters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drdla, K.

2003-01-01

Model simulations have been used to analyze the factors influencing ozone loss during the 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 js. For both winters, the evolution of the Arctic vortex from November to April has been simulated using a trajectory-based microphysical and photochemical model. Extensive PSC formation and strong ozone depletion are evident in both winters. However, the ozone loss begins earlier in the 2002-2003 winter, with significant ozone depletion by early January. Analysis of the model results shows that during December 2002 not only cold temperatures but also the vortex structure was critical, allowing PSC-processed air parcels to experience significant solar exposure. The resultant ozone loss can be differentiated from ozone loss that occurs in the springtime, in particular because of the continued exposure to PSCs. For example, chlorine reactivation by the PSCs causes ozone loss to be insensitive to denitrification. Therefore, diagnosing the extent of ozone loss early in the winter is critical In understanding the overall winter-long ozone depletion.

Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oikonomakis, Emmanouil; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry

2018-02-01

High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone-temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10-20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (< 40 ppb) by 5-15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone-temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i) increased volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii) increased nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by a factor of 2, (iii) a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv) increased traffic-only NOx emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area) Europe, doubling NOx emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone-temperature correlation is also better when NOx emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NOx and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NOx emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NOx emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NOx emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 °C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the opposite effects. Overall, the modeled ozone is predicted to be more sensitive to its precursor emissions (especially traffic NOx) and therefore their uncertainties, which seem to be responsible for the model underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios and ozone production.

Controlling sunbathing safety during the summer holidays - The solar UV campaign at Baltic Sea coast in 2015.

PubMed

Guzikowski, Jakub; Czerwińska, Agnieszka E; Krzyścin, Janusz W; Czerwiński, Michał A

2017-08-01

Information regarding the intensity of surface UV radiation, provided for the public, is frequently given in terms of a daily maximum UV Index (UVI), based on a prognostic model. The quality of the UV forecast depends on the accuracy of column amount of ozone and cloudiness prediction. Daily variability of UVI is needed to determine the risk of the UV overexposure during outdoor activities. Various methods of estimating the temporary UVI and the maximum duration of UV exposures (received a dose equal to minimal erythemal dose - MED), at the site of sunbathing, were compared. The UV indices were obtained during a field experiment at the Baltic Sea coast in the period from 13th to 24th July 2015. The following UVI calculation models were considered: UVI measurements by simple hand-held biometers (Silver Crest, Oregon Scientific, or more advanced Solarmeter 6.5), our smartphone models based on cloud cover observations at the site and the cloudless-sky UVI forecast (available for any site for all smartphone users) or measured UVI, and the 24h weather predictions by the ensemble set of 10 models (with various cloud parameterizations). The direct UV measurements, even by a simple biometer, provided useful UVI estimates. The smartphone applications yielded a good agreement with the UV measurements. The weather prediction models for cloudless-sky conditions could provide valuable information if almost cloudless-sky conditions (cloudless-sky or slightly scattered clouds) were observed at the sunbathing site. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Parameterizing the impacts of ozone-vegetation coupling and feedbacks on ozone air quality in a chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, S.; Tai, A. P. K.; Lombardozzi, D.

2016-12-01

Apart from being an important greenhouse gas, tropospheric ozone is a significant air pollutant that is shown to have harmful effects both on human health and vegetation. Ozone damages vegetation mainly through reducing plant photosynthesis and stomatal conductance. Meanwhile, ozone is also strongly dependent on vegetation via various biogeochemical and physical processes. These interdependences between ozone and vegetation would constitute feedback mechanisms that can potentially alter ozone concentration itself, and should be considered in future climate and air quality projections. In this study, we first implement an empirical scheme for ozone damage on vegetation in the Community Land Model (CLM), and simulate the relative changes in leaf area indices (LAI) and stomatal conductance for three plant groups (consolidated from 15 plant functional types) at various prescribed ozone levels (from 0 ppb to 100 ppb). We find that all plant groups suffer the greatest decreases in LAI and stomatal conductance in regions with their greatest abundance, and grasses and crops show the most severe damage from ozone exposure compared with broadleaf and needleleaf groups, with an LAI reduction of as much as 50% in some areas even at an ozone level of 30 ppb. Using the CLM-simulated results, we develop a semi-empirical parameterization scheme to link prescribed ozone levels to the spatially varying simulated relative changes in LAI and stomatal conductance at model steady state. We implement the scheme in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model so that ozone-vegetation chemical coupling via ozone dry deposition and biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions can be simulated online. Model simulations indicate that ozone effect on stomatal conductance (which modifies dry deposition) appears to be the dominant feedback pathway influencing surface ozone, whereas ozone-mediated LAI changes (which affects biogenic VOC emissions) appear to play a lesser role. This work is the first attempt to account for online ozone-vegetation coupling in a chemical transport model, with important ramifications for more realistic assessment of ozone air quality under a constantly evolving climate and land cover.

A reanalysis of ozone on Mars from assimilation of SPICAM observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, James A.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Patel, Manish R.; Lefèvre, Franck

2018-03-01

We have assimilated for the first time SPICAM retrievals of total ozone into a Martian global circulation model to provide a global reanalysis of the ozone cycle. Disagreement in total ozone between model prediction and assimilation is observed between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180° and at northern polar (60°N-90°N) latitudes during northern fall (LS = 150-195°). Large percentage differences in total ozone at northern fall polar latitudes identified through the assimilation process are linked with excessive northward transport of water vapour west of Tharsis and over Arabia Terra. Modelling biases in water vapour can also explain the underestimation of total ozone between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180°. Heterogeneous uptake of odd hydrogen radicals are unable to explain the outstanding underestimation of northern polar total ozone in late northern fall. Assimilation of total ozone retrievals results in alterations of the modelled spatial distribution of ozone in the southern polar winter high altitude ozone layer. This illustrates the potential use of assimilation methods in constraining total ozone where SPICAM cannot observe, in a region where total ozone is especially important for potential investigations of the polar dynamics.

Influence of wildfires on the variability and trend of ozone concentrations in the U.S. Intermountain West

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Xiao; Zhang, Lin; Zhao, Yuanhong; Yue, Xu

2016-04-01

Wildfires are important sources of ozone by emitting large amounts of NOx and NMVOC, main ozone precursors at both global and regional scales. Their influences on ozone in the U.S. Intermountain West have recently received much interest because surface ozone concentrations over that region showed an increasing trend in the past two decades likely due to increasing wildfire emissions in a warming climate. Here we use the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (FLEXPART) as well as the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to estimate wildfires' contribution on summer (June, July and August; JJA) ozone concentration variations, trends, and extremely high ozone events over the US Intermountain West for the past 22 years (1989-2010). We combine the resident time estimated from the FLEXPART 5-day backward trajectories and a high-resolution fire inventory to define a fire index representing the impact of wildfires on ozone concentration at a particular site for each day of summers 1989-2010. Over 26,000 FLEXPART back-trajectories are conducted for the whole time period and for 13 CASTNet surface monitoring sites. We build a stepwise multiple linear regression (SMLR) model of daily ozone concentrations using fire index and other meteorological variables for each site. The SMLR models explain 53% of the ozone variations (ranging from 12% to 68% for each site). We show that ozone produced from wildfires (calculated from SMLR model) are of high variability at daily scale (ranging from 0.1 ppbv to 20.7 ppbv), but are averaged to lower values of about 0.25-3.5 ppbv for summer mean. We estimate that wildfires magnify inter-annual variations of the regional mean summer ozone for about 32%, compared to the result with wildfires impact excluded from the SMLR model. Wildfire ozone enhancements increase at a rate of 0.04 ppbv per year, accouting for about 20% of the regional summer ozone trend during 1989-2010. Removing wildfires' impact would reduce 35% (46%) of the high-ozone days with measured daily ozone concentrations exceeding 65(75) ppbv, indicating their significant influence on ozone exceptional events. We further compare the wildfire ozone enhancements estimated by the statistical and Lagrangian approach with those estimated from a Eulerian model (GEOS-Chem). Despite highly-correlated results, GEOS-Chem largely overestimates wildfire ozone influences near the source regions and fails to capture ozone production from wildfires at long distance, reflecting deficiencies in current Eulerian models to capture small-scale emissions.

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions to mitigate climate change and protect the ozone layer.

PubMed

Li, Li; Xu, Jianhua; Hu, Jianxin; Han, Jiarui

2014-05-06

Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions offers the combined benefits of mitigating climate change and protecting the ozone layer. This study estimates historical and future N2O emissions and explores the mitigation potential for China's chemical industry. The results show that (1) from 1990 to 2012, industrial N2O emissions in China grew by some 37-fold from 5.07 to 174 Gg (N2O), with total accumulated emissions of 1.26 Tg, and (2) from 2012 to 2020, the projected emissions are expected to continue growing rapidly from 174 to 561 Gg under current policies and assuming no additional mitigation measures. The total accumulated mitigation potential for this forecast period is about 1.54 Tg, the equivalent of reducing all the 2011 greenhouse gases from Australia or halocarbon ozone-depleting substances from China. Adipic acid production, the major industrial emission source, contributes nearly 80% of the industrial N2O emissions, and represents about 96.2% of the industrial mitigation potential. However, the mitigation will not happen without implementing effective policies and regulatory programs.

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

DOE PAGES

Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.; ...

2017-07-26

How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality inmore » 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NO x and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by >70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NO x-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Therefore, policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.« less

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.; Magalhaes, Mateus R.; Morais, Marcos V. B.; Rafee, Sameh A. A.; Ribeiro, Igor O.; Andreoli, Rita V.; Martins, Jorge A.; Martins, Leila D.; Martin, Scot T.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.

2017-07-01

How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality in 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NOx and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by > 70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NOx-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.

An Elevated Reservoir of Air Pollutants over the Mid-Atlantic States During the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign: Airborne Measurements and Numerical Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Hao; Loughner, Christopher P.; Stehr, Jeffrey W.; Arkinson, Heather L.; Brent, Lacey C.; Follette-Cook, Melanie B.; Tzortziou, Maria A.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Thompson, Anne M.; Martins, Douglas K.;

Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.

How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality inmore » 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NO x and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by >70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NO x-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Therefore, policies favoring the burning of natural gas in place of fuel oil and diesel have great potential for ozone reduction and improved air quality for growing urban regions located in tropical, forested environments around the world.« less

Interactive Ozone and Methane Chemistry in GISS-E2 Historical and Future Climate Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, D. T.; Pechony, O.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Nazarenko. L.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Bowman, K.; Milly, G.; Kovari, B.; Ruedy, R.;

Estimated SAGE II ozone mixing ratios in early 1993 and comparisons with Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamic Expedition measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yue, G. K.; Veiga, R. E.; Poole, L. R.; Zawodny, J. M.; Proffitt, M. H.

1994-01-01

An empirical time-series model for estimating ozone mixing ratios based on Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) monthly mean ozone data for the period October 1984 through June 1991 has been developed. The modeling results for ozone mixing ratios in the 10- to 30- km region in early months of 1993 are presented. In situ ozone profiles obtained by a dual-beam UV-absorption ozone photometer during the Stratospheric Photochemistry, Aerosols and Dynamics Expedition (SPADE) campaign, May 1-14, 1993, are compared with the model results. With the exception of two profiles at altitudes below 16 km, ozone mixing ratios derived by the model and measured by the ozone photometer are in relatively good agreement within their individual uncertainties. The identified discrepancies in the two profiles are discussed.

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eyring, V.; Arblaster, J. M.; Cionni, I.; Sedlacek, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Young, P. J.; Bekki, S.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P.; Collins, W. J.;

Analysis of 1970-1995 Trends in Tropospheric Ozone at Northern Hemisphere Midlatitudes with the GEOS-CHEM Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fusco, Andrew C.; Logan, Jennifer A.

2004-01-01

I ] The causes of trends in tropospheric ozone at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes from 1970 to 1995 are investigated with the GEOS-CHEM model, a global three-dimensional model of the troposphere driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This model is used to investigate the sensitivity of tropospheric ozone with respect to (1) changes in the anthropogenic emission of nitrogen oxides and nonmethane hydrocarbons, (2) increases in methane concentrations, (3) variations in the stratospheric source of ozone, (4) changes in solar radiation resulting from stratospheric ozone depletion, and ( 5 ) increases in tropospheric temperatures. Model results indicate that local increases in NO, emissions have caused most of the increases seen in lower tropospheric ozone over Europe and Japan. Increases in methane are responsible for roughly one fifth of the anthropogenically induced increase in tropospheric ozone at northern midlatitudes. However, changes in ozone precursors do not adequately explain either the spatial differences in observed ozone trends across midlatitudes or the observed decreases in ozone over Canada throughout the troposphere. We argue that ozone depletion in the lowermost stratosphere is likely to have reduced the stratospheric source by as much as 30% from the early 1970s to the mid 1990s. Model simulations that account for such a reduction along with reported changes in anthropogenic emissions show steep declines of ozone in the upper troposphere and variable increases in the lower troposphere that are more consistent with observations. Differential temperature trends in summer between North America and Europe may account for at least some of the remaining spatial variation in tropospheric ozone trends. Increases in ultraviolet (UV) radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion do not appear to significantly reduce tropospheric ozone, except at midlatitudes in the Southern Hemisphere following the breakup of the ozone hole.

Ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness changes carbon and water balance of temperate deciduous forests.

PubMed

Hoshika, Yasutomo; Katata, Genki; Deushi, Makoto; Watanabe, Makoto; Koike, Takayoshi; Paoletti, Elena

2015-05-06

Tropospheric ozone concentrations have increased by 60-100% in the Northern Hemisphere since the 19(th) century. The phytotoxic nature of ozone can impair forest productivity. In addition, ozone affects stomatal functions, by both favoring stomatal closure and impairing stomatal control. Ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness, i.e., a delay in stomatal responses to fluctuating stimuli, has the potential to change the carbon and water balance of forests. This effect has to be included in models for ozone risk assessment. Here we examine the effects of ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness on carbon assimilation and transpiration of temperate deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere in 2006-2009 by combining a detailed multi-layer land surface model and a global atmospheric chemistry model. An analysis of results by ozone FACE (Free-Air Controlled Exposure) experiments suggested that ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness can be incorporated into modelling based on a simple parameter (gmin, minimum stomatal conductance) which is used in the coupled photosynthesis-stomatal model. Our simulation showed that ozone can decrease water use efficiency, i.e., the ratio of net CO2 assimilation to transpiration, of temperate deciduous forests up to 20% when ozone-induced stomatal sluggishness is considered, and up to only 5% when the stomatal sluggishness is neglected.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackman, C.H.; Douglass, A.R., Chandra, S.; Stolarski, R.S.

1991-03-20

Eight years of NMC (National Meteorological Center) temperature and SBUV (solar backscattered ultraviolet) ozone data were used to calculate the monthly mean heating rates and residual circulation for use in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the interannual variability of modeled ozone. Fairly good correlations were found in the interannual behavior of modeled and measured SBUV ozone in the upper stratosphere at middle to low latitudes, where temperature dependent photochemistry is thought to dominate ozone behavior. The calculated total ozone is found to be more sensitive to the interannual residual circulation changes than to the interannual temperature changes.more » The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability is similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year to year deviations are mostly uncorrelated. The large component of the observed total ozone variability at low latitudes due to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is not seen in the modeled total ozone, as only a small QBO signal is present in the heating rates, temperatures, and monthly mean residual circulation. Large interanual changes in tropospheric dynamics are believed to influence the interannual variability in the total ozone, especially at middle and high latitudes. Since these tropospheric changes and most of the QBO forcing are not included in the model formulation, it is not surprising that the interannual variability in total ozione is not well represented in the model computations.« less

Impact of increasing heat waves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multimodel analysis using extreme value theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, L.; Mickley, L. J.; Gilleland, E.

2016-04-01

We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression. The PP model sometimes fails to capture ozone-Tmax relationships, so we refit the ozone-Tmax slope using logistic regression and a generalized Pareto distribution model. We then apply the resulting hybrid-extreme value theory model to projections of Tmax from an ensemble of downscaled climate models. Assuming constant anthropogenic emissions at the present level, we find an average increase of 2.3 d a-1 in ozone episodes (>75 ppbv) across the United States by the 2050s, with a change of +3-9 d a-1 at many sites.

Postprocessing for Air Quality Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delle Monache, L.

2017-12-01

In recent year, air quality (AQ) forecasting has made significant progress towards better predictions with the goal of protecting the public from harmful pollutants. This progress is the results of improvements in weather and chemical transport models, their coupling, and more accurate emission inventories (e.g., with the development of new algorithms to account in near real-time for fires). Nevertheless, AQ predictions are still affected at times by significant biases which stem from limitations in both weather and chemistry transport models. Those are the result of numerical approximations and the poor representation (and understanding) of important physical and chemical process. Moreover, although the quality of emission inventories has been significantly improved, they are still one of the main sources of uncertainties in AQ predictions. For operational real-time AQ forecasting, a significant portion of these biases can be reduced with the implementation of postprocessing methods. We will review some of the techniques that have been proposed to reduce both systematic and random errors of AQ predictions, and improve the correlation between predictions and observations of ground-level ozone and surface particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). These methods, which can be applied to both deterministic and probabilistic predictions, include simple bias-correction techniques, corrections inspired by the Kalman filter, regression methods, and the more recently developed analog-based algorithms. These approaches will be compared and contrasted, and strength and weaknesses of each will be discussed.

Improved reference models for middle atmosphere ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keating, G. M.; Pitts, M. C.; Chen, C.

1989-01-01

Improvements are provided for the ozone reference model which is to be incorporated in the COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). The ozone reference model will provide considerable information on the global ozone distribution, including ozone vertical structure as a function of month and latitude from approximately 25 to 90 km, combining data from five recent satellite experiments (Nimbus 7 LIMS, Nimbus 7 SBUV, AE-2 SAGE, Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) UVS, and SME IR). The improved models are described and use reprocessed AE-2 SAGE data (sunset) and extend the use of SAGE data from 1981 to the period 1981-1983. Comparisons are shown between the ozone reference model and various nonsatellite measurements at different levels in the middle atmosphere.

A Hybrid Model for Spatially and Temporally Resolved Ozone Exposures in the Continental United States

PubMed Central

Di, Qian; Rowland, Sebastian; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel

2017-01-01

Ground-level ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, which exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability in its concentration level. Existing modeling approaches for ground-level ozone include chemical transport models, land-use regression, Kriging, and data fusion of chemical transport models with monitoring data. Each of these methods has both strengths and weaknesses. Combining those complementary approaches could improve model performance. Meanwhile, satellite-based total column ozone, combined with ozone vertical profile, is another potential input. We propose a hybrid model that integrates the above variables to achieve spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments for ground-level ozone. We used a neural network for its capacity to model interactions and nonlinearity. Convolutional layers, which use convolution kernels to aggregate nearby information, were added to the neural network to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We trained the model with AQS 8-hour daily maximum ozone in the continental United States from 2000 to 2012 and tested it with left out monitoring sites. Cross-validated R2 on the left out monitoring sites ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 (mean 0.76) for predictions on 1 km×1 km grid cells, which indicates good model performance. Model performance remains good even at low ozone concentrations. The prediction results facilitate epidemiological studies to assess the health effect of ozone in the long term and the short term. PMID:27332675

Modeling the effects of ozone on soybean growth and yield.

PubMed

Kobayashi, K; Miller, J E; Flagler, R B; Heck, W W

1990-01-01

A simple mechanistic model was developed based on an existing growth model in order to address the mechanisms of the effects of ozone on growth and yield of soybean [Glycine max. (L.) Merr. 'Davis'] and interacting effects of other environmental stresses. The model simulates daily growth of soybean plants using environmental data including shortwave radiation, temperature, precipitation, irrigation and ozone concentration. Leaf growth, dry matter accumulation, water budget, nitrogen input and seed growth linked to senescence and abscission of leaves are described in the model. The effects of ozone are modeled as reduced photosynthate production and accelerated senescence. The model was applied to the open-top chamber experiments in which soybean plants were exposed to ozone under two levels of soil moisture regimes. After calibrating the model to the growth data and seed yield, goodness-of-fit of the model was tested. The model fitted well for top dry weight in the vegetative growth phase and also at maturity. The effect of ozone on seen yield was also described satisfactorily by the model. The simulation showed apparent interaction between the effect of ozone and soil moisture stress on the seed yield. The model revealed that further work is needed concerning the effect of ozone on the senescence process and the consequences of alteration of canopy microclimate by the open-top chambers.

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Chung, S. H.; Avise, J.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2015-11-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the United States (US), we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected global emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 parts per billion (ppb) across most of the continental US. The highest increase occurs in the South, Central and Midwest regions of the US due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions and changes in land use. The model predicts an average increase of 1-6 ppb in DM8O due to projected increase in global emissions of ozone precursors. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 4 and 10 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and South regions are mostly a result of increase in primary anthropogenic particulate matter (PM), enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Changes in boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall simulated PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Long-term uvb forecasting on the basis of spectral and broad-band measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bérces, A.; Gáspár, S.; Kovács, G.; Rontó, G.

2003-04-01

The stratospheric ozone concentration has been investigated by several methods, e.g. determinations of the ozone layer using a network of ground based spectrophotometers, of the Dobson and the Brewer types. These data indicate significant decrease of the ozone layer superimposed by much larger seasonal changes at specific geographical locations. The stratospheric ozone plays an important role in the attenuation of the short-wavelength components of the solar spectrum, thus the consequence of the decreased ozone layer is an increased UVB level. Various pyranometers measuring the biological effect of environmental UV radiation have been constructed with spectral sensitivities close to the erythema action spectrum defined by the CIE. Using these erythemally weighted broad-band instruments to detect the tendency of UVB radiation controversial data have been found. To quantify the biological risk due to environmental UV radiation it is reasonable to weight the solar spectrum by the spectral sensitivity of the DNA damage taking into account the high DNA-sensitivity at the short wavelength range of the solar spectrum. Various biological dosimeters have been developed e.g. polycrystalline uracil thin layer. These are usually simple biological systems or components of them. Their UV sensitivity is a consequence of the DNA-damage. Biological dosimeters applied for long-term monitoring are promising tools for the assessment of the biological hazard. Simultaneous application of uracil dosimeters and Robertson-Berger meters can be useful to predict the increasing tendency of the biological UV exposure more precisely. The ratio of the biologically effective dose obtained by the uracil dosimeter (a predominately UVB effect) and by the Robertson-Berger meter (insensitive to changes below 300 nm) is a sensitive method for establishing changes in UVB irradiance due to changes in ozone layer.

Using Forecast and Observed Weather Data to Assess Performance of Forecast Products in Identifying Heat Waves and Estimating Heat Wave Effects on Mortality

PubMed Central

Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D.; Rood, Richard B.; O’Neill, Marie S.

2014-01-01

Background: Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. Objective: We estimated heat–mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. Methods: We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. Results: The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: –1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: –0.4, 13.2%) than non–heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems. Citation: Zhang K, Chen YH, Schwartz JD, Rood RB, O’Neill MS. 2014. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality. Environ Health Perspect 122:912–918; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306858 PMID:24833618

Uncertainties in models of tropospheric ozone based on Monte Carlo analysis: Tropospheric ozone burdens, atmospheric lifetimes and surface distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derwent, Richard G.; Parrish, David D.; Galbally, Ian E.; Stevenson, David S.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Naik, Vaishali; Young, Paul J.

2018-05-01

Recognising that global tropospheric ozone models have many uncertain input parameters, an attempt has been made to employ Monte Carlo sampling to quantify the uncertainties in model output that arise from global tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and from ozone production and destruction in a global Lagrangian chemistry-transport model. Ninety eight quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs were completed and the uncertainties were quantified in tropospheric burdens and lifetimes of ozone, carbon monoxide and methane, together with the surface distribution and seasonal cycle in ozone. The results have shown a satisfactory degree of convergence and provide a first estimate of the likely uncertainties in tropospheric ozone model outputs. There are likely to be diminishing returns in carrying out many more Monte Carlo runs in order to refine further these outputs. Uncertainties due to model formulation were separately addressed using the results from 14 Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) chemistry-climate models. The 95% confidence ranges surrounding the ACCMIP model burdens and lifetimes for ozone, carbon monoxide and methane were somewhat smaller than for the Monte Carlo estimates. This reflected the situation where the ACCMIP models used harmonised emissions data and differed only in their meteorological data and model formulations whereas a conscious effort was made to describe the uncertainties in the ozone precursor emissions and in the kinetic and photochemical data in the Monte Carlo runs. Attention was focussed on the model predictions of the ozone seasonal cycles at three marine boundary layer stations: Mace Head, Ireland, Trinidad Head, California and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Despite comprehensively addressing the uncertainties due to global emissions and ozone sources and sinks, none of the Monte Carlo runs were able to generate seasonal cycles that matched the observations at all three MBL stations. Although the observed seasonal cycles were found to fall within the confidence limits of the ACCMIP members, this was because the model seasonal cycles spanned extremely wide ranges and there was no single ACCMIP member that performed best for each station. Further work is required to examine the parameterisation of convective mixing in the models to see if this erodes the isolation of the marine boundary layer from the free troposphere and thus hides the models' real ability to reproduce ozone seasonal cycles over marine stations.

Children's Models of the Ozone Layer and Ozone Depletion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christidou, Vasilia; Koulaidis, Vasilis

1996-01-01

The views of 40 primary students on ozone and its depletion were recorded through individual, semi-structured interviews. The data analysis resulted in the formation of a limited number of models concerning the distribution and role of ozone in the atmosphere, the depletion process, and the consequences of ozone depletion. Identifies five target…

Long-term observations of tropospheric ozone: GAW Measurement Guidelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarasova, Oksana; Galbally, Ian E.; Schultz, Martin G.

2013-04-01

The Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) coordinates long-term observations of the chemical composition and physical properties of the atmosphere which are relevant for understanding of atmospheric chemistry and climate change. Atmospheric observations of reactive gases (tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides) coordinated by the GAW Programme complement local and regional scale air quality monitoring efforts. As part of the GAW quality assurance (QA) system detailed measurement guidelines for atmospheric trace species are developed by international expert teams at irregular intervals. The most recent report focuses on continuous in-situ measurements of ozone in the troposphere, performed in particular at continental or island sites with altitudes ranging from sea level to mountain tops. Data Quality Objectives (DQOs) are defined for different applications of the data (e.g. trend analysis and verification of global model forecasts). These DQOs include a thorough discussion of the tolerable level of measurement uncertainty and data completeness. The guidelines present the best practices and practical arrangements adopted by the GAW Programme in order to enable the GAW station network to approach or achieve the defined tropospheric ozone DQOs. The document includes information on the selection of station and measurement locations, required skills and training of staff, recommendations on the measurement technique and the necessary equipment to perform highest quality measurements, rules for conducting the measurements, preparing the data and archiving them, and more. Much emphasis is given to discussions about how to ensure the quality of the data through tracing calibrations back to primary standards, proper calibration and data analysis, etc. In the GAW Programme the QA system is implemented through Central Facilities (Central Calibration Laboratories, World and Regional Calibration Centers and World Data Centers), Scientific Advisory Groups and GAW Training and Education Center. These bodies support primary standards, provide calibration and data archiving facilities, coordinate comparison campaigns, perform stations audit, provide documentation and training of personnel.

In-situ Measurements of Ozone Production Rates and Comparisons to Model-derived Production Rates During the Houston, TX and Denver, CO DISCOVER-AQ Campaigns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baier, B. C.; Brune, W. H.; Miller, D. O.; Lefer, B. L.

2015-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a secondary pollutant that has harmful effects on human and plant life. The climate and urban emissions in Houston, TX and Denver, CO can be conducive for significant ozone production and thus, high ozone events. Tighter government strategies for ozone mitigation have been proposed, which involve reducing the current EPA eight-hour ozone standard from 75 ppb to 65-70 ppb. These strategies rely on the reduction of ozone precursors in order to decrease the ozone production rate, P(O3). The changes in the ozone concentration at a certain location are dependent upon P(O3), so decreasing P(O3) can decrease ozone levels provided that it has not been transported from other areas. Air quality models test reduction strategies before they are implemented, locate ozone sources, and predict ozone episodes. Traditionally, P(O3) has been calculated by models. However, large uncertainties in model emissions inventories, chemical mechanisms, and meteorology can reduce confidence in this approach. A new instrument, the Measurement of Ozone Production Sensor (MOPS) directly measures P(O3) and can provide an alternate approach to determining P(O3). An updated version of the Penn State MOPS (MOPSv2.0) was deployed to Houston, TX and Denver, CO as a part of NASA's DISCOVER-AQ field campaign in the summers of 2013 and 2014, respectively. We present MOPS directly-measured P(O3) rates from these areas, as well as comparisons to zero-dimensional and three-dimensional modeled P(O3) using the RACM2 and MCMv2.2 mechanisms. These comparisons demonstrate the potential of the MOPS to test and evaluate model-derived P(O3), to advance the understanding of model chemical mechanisms, and to improve predictions of high ozone events.

The Extrapolar SWIFT model (version 1.0): fast stratospheric ozone chemistry for global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreyling, Daniel; Wohltmann, Ingo; Lehmann, Ralph; Rex, Markus

2018-03-01

The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends.The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, in which algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equation system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24 h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, overhead ozone column and the mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone-depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these nine variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month, which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading).For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model, replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10-year simulation, the ozone layer simulated by SWIFT shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30-100 terms. Computers can currently calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.

Analysis of year-to-year ozone variation over the subtropical western Pacific region using EP_TOMS data and CCSR/NIES nudging CTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, L. B.; Akiyoshi, H.; Kawahira, K.

2003-10-01

The year-to-year ozone variation over the subtropical western Pacific region is studied, especially the ozone lows in the 1996/1997, 1998/1999, and 2001/2002 winters, using the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP_TOMS) ozone data from August 1996 to July 2002. Regression analyses show that dynamical signals, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation, play an important role in determining total ozone variation. A nudging chemical transport model (CTM) is used to simulate the year-to-year ozone variation and explain the mechanism for producing ozone lows in a three-dimensional distribution of ozone. The CTM was developed using the Center for Climate System Research/National Institute for Environmental Studies (CCSR/NIES) atmospheric general circulation model and introducing a nudging process for temperature and horizontal wind velocity. The year-to-year ozone variation, especially the winter ozone low, is well simulated by the model excluding heterogeneous reaction processes between 45°S and 45°N latitude. Results show that the year-to-year ozone variation is mainly controlled by dynamical transport processes.

Improvement of Meteorological Inputs for TexAQS-II Air Quality Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngan, F.; Byun, D.; Kim, H.; Cheng, F.; Kim, S.; Lee, D.

2008-12-01

An air quality forecasting system (UH-AQF) for Eastern Texas, which is in operation by the Institute for Multidimensional Air Quality Studies (IMAQS) at the University of Houston, uses the Fifth-Generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 model as the meteorological driver for modeling air quality with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. While the forecasting system was successfully used for the planning and implementation of various measurement activities, evaluations of the forecasting results revealed a few systematic problems in the numerical simulations. From comparison with observations, we observe some times over-prediction of northerly winds caused by inaccurate synoptic inputs and other times too strong southerly winds caused by local sea breeze development. Discrepancies in maximum and minimum temperature are also seen for certain days. Precipitation events, as well as clouds, are simulated at the incorrect locations and times occasionally. Model simulatednrealistic thunderstorms are simulated, causing sometimes cause unrealistically strong outflows. To understand physical and chemical processes influencing air quality measures, a proper description of real world meteorological conditions is essential. The objective of this study is to generate better meteorological inputs than the AQF results to support the chemistry modeling. We utilized existing objective analysis and nudging tools in the MM5 system to develop the MUltiscale Nest-down Data Assimilation System (MUNDAS), which incorporates extensive meteorological observations available in the simulated domain for the retrospective simulation of the TexAQS-II period. With the re-simulated meteorological input, we are able to better predict ozone events during TexAQS-II period. In addition, base datasets in MM5 such as land use/land cover, vegetation fraction, soil type and sea surface temperature are updated by satellite data to represent the surface features more accurately. They are key physical parameters inputs affecting transfer of heat, momentum and soil moisture in land-surface process in MM5. Using base the accurate input datasets, we are able to have improved see the differences of predictions of ground temperatures, winds and even thunderstorm activities within boundary layer.

[Radiance Simulation of BUV Hyperspectral Sensor on Multi Angle Observation, and Improvement to Initial Total Ozone Estimating Model of TOMS V8 Total Ozone Algorithm].

PubMed

Lü, Chun-guang; Wang, Wei-he; Yang, Wen-bo; Tian, Qing-iju; Lu, Shan; Chen, Yun

2015-11-01

New hyperspectral sensor to detect total ozone is considered to be carried on geostationary orbit platform in the future, because local troposphere ozone pollution and diurnal variation of ozone receive more and more attention. Sensors carried on geostationary satellites frequently obtain images on the condition of larger observation angles so that it has higher requirements of total ozone retrieval on these observation geometries. TOMS V8 algorithm is developing and widely used in low orbit ozone detecting sensors, but it still lack of accuracy on big observation geometry, therefore, how to improve the accuracy of total ozone retrieval is still an urgent problem that demands immediate solution. Using moderate resolution atmospheric transmission, MODT-RAN, synthetic UV backscatter radiance in the spectra region from 305 to 360 nm is simulated, which refers to clear sky, multi angles (12 solar zenith angles and view zenith angles) and 26 standard profiles, moreover, the correlation and trends between atmospheric total ozone and backward scattering of the earth UV radiation are analyzed based on the result data. According to these result data, a new modified initial total ozone estimation model in TOMS V8 algorithm is considered to be constructed in order to improve the initial total ozone estimating accuracy on big observation geometries. The analysis results about total ozone and simulated UV backscatter radiance shows: Radiance in 317.5 nm (R₃₁₇.₅) decreased as the total ozone rise. Under the small solar zenith Angle (SZA) and the same total ozone, R₃₁₇.₅ decreased with the increase of view zenith Angle (VZA) but increased on the large SZA. Comparison of two fit models shows: without the condition that both SZA and VZA are large (> 80°), exponential fitting model and logarithm fitting model all show high fitting precision (R² > 0.90), and precision of the two decreased as the SZA and VZA rise. In most cases, the precision of logarithm fitting mode is about 0.9% higher than exponential fitting model. With the increasing of VZA or SZA, the fitting precision gradually lower, and the fall is more in the larger VZA or SZA. In addition, the precision of fitting mode exist a plateau in the small SZA range. The modified initial total ozone estimating model (ln(I) vs. Ω) is established based on logarithm fitting mode, and compared with traditional estimating model (I vs. ln(Ω)), that shows: the RMSE of ln(I) vs. Ω and I vs. ln(Ω) all have the down trend with the rise of total ozone. In the low region of total ozone (175-275 DU), the RMSE is obvious higher than high region (425-525 DU), moreover, a RMSE peak and a trough exist in 225 and 475 DU respectively. With the increase of VZA and SZA, the RMSE of two initial estimating models are overall rise, and the upraising degree is ln(I) vs. Ω obvious with the growing of SZA and VZA. The estimating result by modified model is better than traditional model on the whole total ozone range (RMSE is 0.087%-0.537% lower than traditional model), especially on lower total ozone region and large observation geometries. Traditional estimating model relies on the precision of exponential fitting model, and modified estimating model relies on the precision of logarithm fitting model. The improvement of the estimation accuracy by modified initial total ozone estimating model expand the application range of TOMS V8 algorithm. For sensor carried on geostationary orbit platform, there is no doubt that the modified estimating model can help improve the inversion accuracy on wide spatial and time range This modified model could give support and reference to TOMS algorithm update in the future.

A numerical study of tropospheric ozone in the springtime in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Meigen; Xu, Yongfu; Itsushi, Uno; Hajime, Akimoto

2004-04-01

The Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) coupled with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is applied to East Asia to study the transport and photochemical transformation of tropospheric ozone in March 1998. The calculated mixing ratios of ozone and carbon monoxide are compared with ground level observations at three remote sites in Japan and it is found that the model reproduces the observed features very well. Examination of several high episodes of ozone and carbon monoxide indicates that these elevated levels are found in association with continental outflow, demonstrating the critical role of the rapid transport of carbon monoxide and other ozone precursors from the continental boundary layer. In comparison with available ozonesonde data, it is found that the model-calculated ozone concentrations are generally in good agreement with the measurements, and the stratospheric contribution to surface ozone mixing ratios is quite limited.

The influence of temperature on ozone production under varying NOx conditions - a modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coates, Jane; Mar, Kathleen A.; Ojha, Narendra; Butler, Tim M.

2016-09-01

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant produced during the atmospheric photochemical degradation of emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Temperature directly influences ozone production through speeding up the rates of chemical reactions and increasing the emissions of VOCs, such as isoprene, from vegetation. In this study, we used an idealised box model with different chemical mechanisms (Master Chemical Mechanism, MCMv3.2; Common Representative Intermediates, CRIv2; Model for OZone and Related Chemical Tracers, MOZART-4; Regional Acid Deposition Model, RADM2; Carbon Bond Mechanism, CB05) to examine the non-linear relationship between ozone, NOx and temperature, and we compared this to previous observational studies. Under high-NOx conditions, an increase in ozone from 20 to 40 °C of up to 20 ppbv was due to faster reaction rates, while increased isoprene emissions added up to a further 11 ppbv of ozone. The largest inter-mechanism differences were obtained at high temperatures and high-NOx emissions. CB05 and RADM2 simulated more NOx-sensitive chemistry than MCMv3.2, CRIv2 and MOZART-4, which could lead to different mitigation strategies being proposed depending on the chemical mechanism. The increased oxidation rate of emitted VOC with temperature controlled the rate of Ox production; the net influence of peroxy nitrates increased net Ox production per molecule of emitted VOC oxidised. The rate of increase in ozone mixing ratios with temperature from our box model simulations was about half the rate of increase in ozone with temperature observed over central Europe or simulated by a regional chemistry transport model. Modifying the box model set-up to approximate stagnant meteorological conditions increased the rate of increase of ozone with temperature as the accumulation of oxidants enhanced ozone production through the increased production of peroxy radicals from the secondary degradation of emitted VOCs. The box model simulations approximating stagnant conditions and the maximal ozone production chemical regime reproduced the 2 ppbv increase in ozone per degree Celsius from the observational and regional model data over central Europe. The simulated ozone-temperature relationship was more sensitive to mixing than the choice of chemical mechanism. Our analysis suggests that reductions in NOx emissions would be required to offset the additional ozone production due to an increase in temperature in the future.

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.

2006-01-01

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. In this talk we will demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating 61 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newman, Paul A.; Nash, Eric R.; Kawa, S. Randolph; Montzka, Stephen A.; Schauffler, Sue

2006-01-01

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. Herein we demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating C1 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area s variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Diagnostic analysis of two-dimensional monthly average ozone balance with Chapman chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Jackman, Charles H.; Kaye, Jack A.

1986-01-01

Chapman chemistry has been used in a two-dimensional model to simulate ozone balance phenomenology. The similarity between regions of ozone production and loss calculated using Chapman chemistry and those computed using LIMS and SAMS data with a photochemical equilibrium model indicate that such simplified chemistry is useful in studying gross features in stratospheric ozone balance. Net ozone production or loss rates are brought about by departures from the photochemical equilibrium (PCE) condition. If transport drives ozone above its PCE condition, then photochemical loss dominates production. If transport drives ozone below its PCE condition, then photochemical production dominates loss. Gross features of ozone loss/production (L/P) inferred for the real atmosphere from data are also simulated using only eddy diffusion. This indicates that one must be careful in assigning a transport scheme for a two-dimensional model that mimics only behavior of the observed ozone L/P.

A Bayesian model for quantifying the change in mortality associated with future ozone exposures under climate change.

PubMed

Alexeeff, Stacey E; Pfister, Gabriele G; Nychka, Doug

2016-03-01

Climate change is expected to have many impacts on the environment, including changes in ozone concentrations at the surface level. A key public health concern is the potential increase in ozone-related summertime mortality if surface ozone concentrations rise in response to climate change. Although ozone formation depends partly on summertime weather, which exhibits considerable inter-annual variability, previous health impact studies have not incorporated the variability of ozone into their prediction models. A major source of uncertainty in the health impacts is the variability of the modeled ozone concentrations. We propose a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo estimation method for quantifying health effects of future ozone. An advantage of this approach is that we include the uncertainty in both the health effect association and the modeled ozone concentrations. Using our proposed approach, we quantify the expected change in ozone-related summertime mortality in the contiguous United States between 2000 and 2050 under a changing climate. The mortality estimates show regional patterns in the expected degree of impact. We also illustrate the results when using a common technique in previous work that averages ozone to reduce the size of the data, and contrast these findings with our own. Our analysis yields more realistic inferences, providing clearer interpretation for decision making regarding the impacts of climate change. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Ozone Sensitivity to Varying Greenhouse Gases and Ozone-Depleting Substances in CCMI-1 Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgenstern, Olaf; Stone, Kane A.; Schofield, Robyn; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Sudo, Kengo; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John;

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgenstern, Olaf; Stone, Kane A.; Schofield, Robyn; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Yamashita, Yousuke; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Sudo, Kengo; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Oman, Luke D.; Manyin, Michael E.; Zeng, Guang; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva; Di Genova, Glauco; Visioni, Daniele; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.

2018-01-01

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1.

Impact of WRF model PBL schemes on air quality simulations over Catalonia, Spain.

PubMed

Banks, R F; Baldasano, J M

2016-12-01

Here we analyze the impact of four planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrization schemes from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction model on simulations of meteorological variables and predicted pollutant concentrations from an air quality forecast system (AQFS). The current setup of the Spanish operational AQFS, CALIOPE, is composed of the WRF-ARW V3.5.1 meteorological model tied to the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme, HERMES v2 emissions model, CMAQ V5.0.2 chemical transport model, and dust outputs from BSC-DREAM8bv2. We test the performance of the YSU scheme against the Assymetric Convective Model Version 2 (ACM2), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), and Bougeault-Lacarrère (BouLac) schemes. The one-day diagnostic case study is selected to represent the most frequent synoptic condition in the northeast Iberian Peninsula during spring 2015; regional recirculations. It is shown that the ACM2 PBL scheme performs well with daytime PBL height, as validated against estimates retrieved using a micro-pulse lidar system (mean bias=-0.11km). In turn, the BouLac scheme showed WRF-simulated air and dew point temperature closer to METAR surface meteorological observations. Results are more ambiguous when simulated pollutant concentrations from CMAQ are validated against network urban, suburban, and rural background stations. The ACM2 scheme showed the lowest mean bias (-0.96μgm -3 ) with respect to surface ozone at urban stations, while the YSU scheme performed best with simulated nitrogen dioxide (-6.48μgm -3 ). The poorest results were with simulated particulate matter, with similar results found with all schemes tested. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban Summertime Ozone of China: Peak Ozone Hour and Nighttime Mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

We investigate the observed diurnal cycle of summertime ozone in the cities of China using a regional chemical transport model. The simulated daytime ozone is in general agreement with the observations. Model simulations suggest that the ozone peak time and peak concentration are a function of NOx (NO + NO2) and volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. The differences between simulated and observed ozone peak time and peak concentration in some regions can be applied to understand biases in the emission inventories. For example, the VOCs emissions are underestimated over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, and either NOx emissions are underestimated or VOC emissions are overestimated over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) regions. In contrast to the general good daytime ozone simulations, the simulated nighttime ozone has a large low bias of up to 40 ppbv. Nighttime ozone in urban areas is sensitive to the nocturnal boundary-layer mixing, and enhanced nighttime mixing (from the surface to 200-500 m) is necessary for the model to reproduce the observed level of ozone.

Model-based analysis of avoidance of ozone stress by stomatal closure in Siebold's beech (Fagus crenata)

PubMed Central

Hoshika, Yasutomo; Watanabe, Makoto; Inada, Naoki; Koike, Takayoshi

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Resistance of plants to ozone stress can be classified as either avoidance or tolerance. Avoidance of ozone stress may be explained by decreased stomatal conductance during ozone exposure because stomata are the principal interface for entry of ozone into plants. In this study, a coupled photosynthesis–stomatal model was modified to test whether the presence of ozone can induce avoidance of ozone stress by stomatal closure. Methods The response of Siebold's beech (Fagus crenata), a representative deciduous tree species, to ozone was studied in a free-air ozone exposure experiment in Japan. Photosynthesis and stomatal conductance were measured under ambient and elevated ozone. An optimization model of stomata involving water, CO2 and ozone flux was tested using the leaf gas exchange data. Key Results The data suggest that there are two phases in the avoidance of ozone stress via stomatal closure for Siebold's beech: (1) in early summer ozone influx is efficiently limited by a reduction in stomatal conductance, without any clear effect on photosynthetic capacity; and (2) in late summer and autumn the efficiency of ozone stress avoidance was decreased because the decrease in stomatal conductance was small and accompanied by an ozone-induced decline of photosynthetic capacity. Conclusions Ozone-induced stomatal closure in Siebold's beech during early summer reduces ozone influx and allows the maximum photosynthetic capacity to be reached, but is not sufficient in older leaves to protect the photosynthetic system. PMID:23904447

The Use of OMPS Near Real Time Products in Volcanic Cloud Risk Mitigation and Smoke/Dust Air Quality Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftor, C. J.; Krotkov, N. A.; McPeters, R. D.; Li, J. Y.; Durbin, P. B.

2015-12-01

Near real time (NRT) SO2 and aerosol index (AI) imagery from Aura's Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has proven invaluable in mitigating the risk posed to air traffic by SO2 and ash clouds from volcanic eruptions. The OMI products, generated as part of NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) NRT system and available through LANCE and both NOAA's NESDIS and ESA's Support to Aviation Control Service (SACS) portals, are used to monitor the current location of volcanic clouds and to provide input into Volcanic Ash (VA) advisory forecasts. NRT products have recently been developed using data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite onboard the Suomi NPP platform; they are currently being made available through the SACS portal and will shortly be incorporated into the LANCE NRT system. We will show examples of the use of OMPS NRT SO2 and AI imagery to monitor recent volcanic eruption events. We will also demonstrate the usefulness of OMPS AI imagery to detect and track dust storms and smoke from fires, and how this information can be used to forecast their impact on air quality in areas far removed from their source. Finally, we will show SO2 and AI imagery generated from our OMPS Direct Broadcast data to highlight the capability of our real time system.

The Met Office HadGEM3-ES chemistry-climate model: evaluation of stratospheric dynamics and its impact on ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardiman, Steven C.; Butchart, Neal; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Rumbold, Steven T.

2017-03-01

Free-running and nudged versions of a Met Office chemistry-climate model are evaluated and used to investigate the impact of dynamics versus transport and chemistry within the model on the simulated evolution of stratospheric ozone. Metrics of the dynamical processes relevant for simulating stratospheric ozone are calculated, and the free-running model is found to outperform the previous model version in 10 of the 14 metrics. In particular, large biases in stratospheric transport and tropical tropopause temperature, which existed in the previous model version, are substantially reduced, making the current model more suitable for the simulation of stratospheric ozone. The spatial structure of the ozone hole, the area of polar stratospheric clouds, and the increased ozone concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere following sudden stratospheric warmings, were all found to be sensitive to the accuracy of the dynamics and were better simulated in the nudged model than in the free-running model. Whilst nudging can, in general, provide a useful tool for removing the influence of dynamical biases from the evolution of chemical fields, this study shows that issues can remain in the climatology of nudged models. Significant biases in stratospheric vertical velocities, age of air, water vapour, and total column ozone still exist in the Met Office nudged model. Further, these can lead to biases in the downward flux of ozone into the troposphere.

A Statistical Modeling Framework for Projecting Future Ambient Ozone and its Health Impact due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2014-01-01

The adverse health effects of ambient ozone are well established. Given the high sensitivity of ambient ozone concentrations to meteorological conditions, the impacts of future climate change on ozone concentrations and its associated health effects are of concern. We describe a statistical modeling framework for projecting future ozone levels and its health impacts under a changing climate. This is motivated by the continual effort to evaluate projection uncertainties to inform public health risk assessment. The proposed approach was applied to the 20-county Atlanta metropolitan area using regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Future ozone levels and ozone-related excesses in asthma emergency department (ED) visits were examined for the period 2041–2070. The computationally efficient approach allowed us to consider 8 sets of climate model outputs based on different combinations of 4 RCMs and 4 general circulation models. Compared to the historical period of 1999–2004, we found consistent projections across climate models of an average 11.5% higher ozone levels (range: 4.8%, 16.2%), and an average 8.3% (range: −7% to 24%) higher number of ozone exceedance days. Assuming no change in the at-risk population, this corresponds to excess ozone-related ED visits ranging from 267 to 466 visits per year. Health impact projection uncertainty was driven predominantly by uncertainty in the health effect association and climate model variability. Calibrating climate simulations with historical observations reduced differences in projections across climate models. PMID:24764746

Scientific assessment of stratospheric ozone: 1989, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

A scientific review is presented of the current understanding of stratospheric ozone. There have been highly significant advances in the understanding of the impact of human activities on the Earth's protective ozone layer. There are four major findings that each heighten the concern that chlorine and bromine containing chemicals can lead to a significant depletion of stratospheric ozone: (1) Antarctic ozone hole (the weight of evidence indicates that chlorinated and brominated chemicals are responsible for the ozone hole; (2) Perturbed arctic chemistry (the same potentially ozone destroying processes were identified in the Arctic stratosphere); (3) Long term ozone decreases; and (4) Model limitations (gaps in theoretical models used for assessment studies).

Stratospheric Ozone Response in Experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pitari, Giovanni; Aquila, Valentina; Kravitz, Ben; Watanabe, Shingo; Tilmes, Simone; Mancini, Eva; DeLuca, Natalia; DiGenova, Glauco

2013-01-01

Geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols has been proposed as a means of temporarily cooling the planet, alleviating some of the side effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, one of the known side effects of stratospheric injections of sulfate aerosols is a decrease in stratospheric ozone. Here we show results from two general circulation models and two coupled chemistry climate models that have simulated stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering as part of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Changes in photolysis rates and upwelling of ozone-poor air in the tropics reduce stratospheric ozone, suppression of the NOx cycle increases stratospheric ozone, and an increase in available surfaces for heterogeneous chemistry modulates reductions in ozone. On average, the models show a factor 20-40 increase of the sulfate aerosol surface area density (SAD) at 50 hPa in the tropics with respect to unperturbed background conditions and a factor 3-10 increase at mid-high latitudes. The net effect for a tropical injection rate of 5 Tg SO2 per year is a decrease in globally averaged ozone by 1.1-2.1 DU in the years 2040-2050 for three models which include heterogeneous chemistry on the sulfate aerosol surfaces. GISS-E2-R, a fully coupled general circulation model, performed simulations with no heterogeneous chemistry and a smaller aerosol size; it showed a decrease in ozone by 9.7 DU. After the year 2050, suppression of the NOx cycle becomes more important than destruction of ozone by ClOx, causing an increase in total stratospheric ozone. Contribution of ozone changes in this experiment to radiative forcing is 0.23 W m-2 in GISS-E2-R and less than 0.1 W m-2 in the other three models. Polar ozone depletion, due to enhanced formation of both sulfate aerosol SAD and polar stratospheric clouds, results in an average 5 percent increase in calculated surface UV-B.

Size-Segregated Aerosol Composition and Mass Loading of Atmospheric Particles as Part of the Pacific Northwest 2001(PNW2001) Air Quality Study In Puget Sound

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Disselkamp, R. S.; Barrie, L. A.; Shutthanadan, S.; Cliff, S.; Cahill, T.

2001-12-01

In mid-August, 2001, an aircraft-based air-quality study was performed in the Puget Sound, WA, area entitled PNW2001 (http://www.pnl.gov/pnw2001). The objectives of this field campaign were the following: 1. reveal information about the 3-dimensional distribution of ozone, its gaseous precursors and fine particulate matter during weather conditions favoring air pollution; 2. derive information about the accuracy of urban and biogenic emissions inventories that are used to drive the air quality forecast models; and 3. examine the accuracy of modeled ozone concentration with that observed. In support of these efforts, we collected time-averaged ( { ~}10 minute averages), size-segregated, aerosol composition and mass-loading information using ex post facto analysis techniques of synchrotron x-ray fluorescence (s-XRF), proton induced x-ray emissions(PIXE), proton elastic scattering (PESA), and scanning transmission ion microscopy (STIM). This is the first time these analysis techniques have been used together on samples collected from aircraft using an optimized 3-stage rotating drum impactor. In our presentation, we will discuss the aerosol components in three aerosol size fractions as identified by statistical analysis of multielemental data (including total mass, H, Na, Mg, Al, Si, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Pb) and relate variations in these components to physical aerosol properties, other gaseous trace constituents and to air mass origin.

Does coupled ocean enhance ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere circulation changes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, S. W.; Han, B. R.; Kim, S. Y.; Park, R.

2017-12-01

The ozone-hole-induced Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation changes, such as poleward shift of westerly jet and Hadley cell widening, have been typically explored with either coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) prescribing stratospheric ozone or chemistry-climate models (CCMs) prescribing surface boundary conditions. Only few studies have utilized ocean-coupled CCMs with a relatively coarse resolution. To better quantify the role of interactive chemistry and coupled ocean in the ozone-hole-induced SH circulation changes, the present study examines a set of CGCM and CCM simulations archived for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CCM initiative (CCMI). Although inter-model spread of Antarctic ozone depletion is substantially large especially in the austral spring, both CGCMs with relatively simple ozone chemistry and CCMs with fully interactive comprehensive chemistry reasonably well reproduce long-term trends of Antarctic ozone and the associated polar-stratospheric temperature changes. Most models reproduce a poleward shift of SH jet and Hadley-cell widening in the austral summer in the late 20th century as identified in reanalysis datasets. These changes are quasi-linearly related with Antarctic ozone changes, confirming the critical role of Antarctic ozone depletion in the austral-summer zonal-mean circulation changes. The CGCMs with simple but still interactive ozone show slightly stronger circulation changes than those with prescribed ozone. However, the long-term circulation changes in CCMs are largely insensitive to the coupled ocean. While a few models show the enhanced circulation changes when ocean is coupled, others show essentially no changes or even weakened circulation changes. This result suggests that the ozone-hole-related stratosphere-troposphere coupling in the late 20th century may be only weakly sensitive to the coupled ocean.

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, James G.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Homeyer, Cameron R.; Smith, Jessica B.; Wilmouth, David M.; Sayres, David S.; Klobas, J. Eric; Dykema, John A.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2017-01-01

We present observations defining (i) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; (ii) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; (iii) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and (iv) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate−water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO2 and CH4. PMID:28584119

Stratospheric ozone over the United States in summer linked to observations of convection and temperature via chlorine and bromine catalysis.

PubMed

Anderson, James G; Weisenstein, Debra K; Bowman, Kenneth P; Homeyer, Cameron R; Smith, Jessica B; Wilmouth, David M; Sayres, David S; Klobas, J Eric; Leroy, Stephen S; Dykema, John A; Wofsy, Steven C

2017-06-20

We present observations defining ( i ) the frequency and depth of convective penetration of water into the stratosphere over the United States in summer using the Next-Generation Radar system; ( ii ) the altitude-dependent distribution of inorganic chlorine established in the same coordinate system as the radar observations; ( iii ) the high resolution temperature structure in the stratosphere over the United States in summer that resolves spatial and structural variability, including the impact of gravity waves; and ( iv ) the resulting amplification in the catalytic loss rates of ozone for the dominant halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen catalytic cycles. The weather radar observations of ∼2,000 storms, on average, each summer that reach the altitude of rapidly increasing available inorganic chlorine, coupled with observed temperatures, portend a risk of initiating rapid heterogeneous catalytic conversion of inorganic chlorine to free radical form on ubiquitous sulfate-water aerosols; this, in turn, engages the element of risk associated with ozone loss in the stratosphere over the central United States in summer based upon the same reaction network that reduces stratospheric ozone over the Arctic. The summertime development of the upper-level anticyclonic flow over the United States, driven by the North American Monsoon, provides a means of retaining convectively injected water, thereby extending the time for catalytic ozone loss over the Great Plains. Trusted decadal forecasts of UV dosage over the United States in summer require understanding the response of this dynamical and photochemical system to increased forcing of the climate by increasing levels of CO 2 and CH 4 .

Multimodel Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution over the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, L. D.; Plummer, D. A.; Waugh, D. W.; Austin, J.; Scinocca, J. F.; Douglass, A. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.;

Removal of the 2-mercaptobenotiazole from model wastewater by ozonation.

PubMed

Derco, Jan; Kassai, Angelika; Melicher, Michal; Dudas, Jozef

2014-01-01

The feasibility of ozonation process for 2-mercaptobenzothiazole (2-MBT) removal follows from results of ozonation of the model wastewater. Total removal of 2-MBT was observed after 20 minutes of ozonation. Very good reproducibility of repeated ozonation trials including sampling and analysis was observed. However, the majority of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) remained in the reaction mixture. Benzothiazole (BT) and 2-hydroxybenzothiazole (OBT) intermediates were identified during degradation of 2-MBT with ozone. In addition to the above benzothiazole derivatives, the creation of some other organic compounds follows from results of mass balance. The best fits of experimental data were obtained using the first kinetic model for 2-MBT and zero-order kinetic model for COD and DOC. The reaction time of 60 minutes can be considered as effective with regard to controlled oxidation in order to increase a portion of partially oxidized substances. Higher biodegradability and lower toxicity of ozonation products on respiration activity of activated sludge microorganisms was observed at higher ozonation time.

Removal of the 2-Mercaptobenotiazole from Model Wastewater by Ozonation

PubMed Central

Kassai, Angelika

2014-01-01

The feasibility of ozonation process for 2-mercaptobenzothiazole (2-MBT) removal follows from results of ozonation of the model wastewater. Total removal of 2-MBT was observed after 20 minutes of ozonation. Very good reproducibility of repeated ozonation trials including sampling and analysis was observed. However, the majority of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chemical oxygen demand (COD) remained in the reaction mixture. Benzothiazole (BT) and 2-hydroxybenzothiazole (OBT) intermediates were identified during degradation of 2-MBT with ozone. In addition to the above benzothiazole derivatives, the creation of some other organic compounds follows from results of mass balance. The best fits of experimental data were obtained using the first kinetic model for 2-MBT and zero-order kinetic model for COD and DOC. The reaction time of 60 minutes can be considered as effective with regard to controlled oxidation in order to increase a portion of partially oxidized substances. Higher biodegradability and lower toxicity of ozonation products on respiration activity of activated sludge microorganisms was observed at higher ozonation time. PMID:24578619

A Semi-empirical Model of the Stratosphere in the Climate System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sodergren, A. H.; Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.; Meinshausen, M.; McDonald, A.

2014-12-01

Chemistry climate models (CCMs) currently used to project changes in Antarctic ozone are extremely computationally demanding. CCM projections are uncertain due to lack of knowledge of future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone depleting substances (ODSs), as well as parameterizations within the CCMs that have weakly constrained tuning parameters. While projections should be based on an ensemble of simulations, this is not currently possible due to the complexity of the CCMs. An inexpensive but realistic approach to simulate changes in stratospheric ozone, and its coupling to the climate system, is needed as a complement to CCMs. A simple climate model (SCM) can be used as a fast emulator of complex atmospheric-ocean climate models. If such an SCM includes a representation of stratospheric ozone, the evolution of the global ozone layer can be simulated for a wide range of GHG and ODS emissions scenarios. MAGICC is an SCM used in previous IPCC reports. In the current version of the MAGICC SCM, stratospheric ozone changes depend only on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC). In this work, MAGICC is extended to include an interactive stratospheric ozone layer using a semi-empirical model of ozone responses to CO2and EESC, with changes in ozone affecting the radiative forcing in the SCM. To demonstrate the ability of our new, extended SCM to generate projections of global changes in ozone, tuning parameters from 19 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and 10 carbon cycle models (to create an ensemble of 190 simulations) have been used to generate probability density functions of the dates of return of stratospheric column ozone to 1960 and 1980 levels for different latitudes.

Children's Use of Metaphors in Relation To Their Mental Models: The Case of the Ozone Layer and Its Depletion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Christidou, Vasilia; Koulaidis, Vasilis; Christidis, Theodor

1997-01-01

Examines the relationship between children's use of metaphors and their mental models concerning the ozone layer and ozone layer depletion. Results indicate that the way children represent the role and depletion of ozone is strongly correlated with the types of metaphors they use while constructing and/or articulating their models. Also discusses…

A mid-latitude ozone model for the US standard atmosphere, 1975 (summary)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krueger, A. J.; Minzner, R. A.

1974-01-01

A mid-latitude, Northern-Hemisphere model of the daytime ozone distribution in the troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere was constructed. Data from rocket soundings in the latitude range 45 deg N + or - 15 deg, results of balloon soundings at altitudes from 41 to 47 deg N, and latitude gradients from satellite ozone observations were combined to produce estimates of the annual mean ozone concentration and its variability at heights to 72 km for an effective latitude of 45 deg N. The model is a revision, for heights above 26 km, of the tentative Mid-Latitude Ozone Model.

Long-Term Global Morphology of Gravity Wave Activity Using UARS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckermann, Stephen D.; Jackman, C. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Gravity waves in satellite data from CRISTA and MLS are studied in depth this quarter. Results this quarter are somewhat limited due to the PI'S heavy involvement throughout this reporting period in on-site forecasting of mountain wave-induced turbulence for the NASA's ER-2 research aircraft at Kiruna, Sweden during the SAGE Ill Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). Results reported concentrate on further mesoscale modeling studies of mountain waves over the southern Andes, evident in CRISTA and MLS data. Two-dimensional mesoscale model simulations are extended through generalization of model equations to include both rotation and a first-order turbulence closure scheme. Results of three experiments are analyzed in depth and submitted for publication. We also commence simulations with a three-dimensional mesoscale model (MM5) and present preliminary results for the CRISTA 1 period near southern South America. Combination of ground-based temperature data at 87 km from two sites with global HRDl data was continued this quarter, showing stationary planetary wave structures. This work was also submitted for publication.

Impacts of ozone-vegetation coupling and feedbacks on global air quality, ecosystems and food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.

2016-12-01

Surface ozone is an air pollutant of significant concerns due to its harmful effects on human health, vegetation and crop productivity. Chronic ozone exposure is shown to reduce photosynthesis and interfere with gas exchange in plants, thereby influencing surface energy balance and biogeochemical fluxes with important ramifications for climate and atmospheric composition, including possible feedbacks onto ozone itself that are not well understood. Ozone damage on crops has been well documented, but a mechanistic understanding is not well established. Here we present several results pertaining to the effects of ozone-vegetation coupling on air quality, ecosystems and agriculture. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we find that inclusion of ozone damage on plants reduces the global land carbon sink by up to 5%, while simulated ozone is enhanced by up to 6 ppbv North America, Europe and East Asia. This strong positive feedback on ozone air quality via ozone-vegetation coupling arises mainly from reduced stomatal conductance, which induces two feedback pathways: 1) reduced dry deposition and ozone uptake; and 2) reduced evapotranspiration that enhances vegetation temperature and thus isoprene emission. Using the same ozone-vegetation scheme in a crop model within CESM, we further examine the impacts of historical ozone exposure on global crop production. We contrast our model results with a separate statistical analysis designed to characterize the spatial variability of crop-ozone-temperature relationships and account for the confounding effect of ozone-temperature covariation, using multidecadal global datasets of crop yields, agroclimatic variables and ozone exposures. We find that several crops (especially C4 crops such as maize) exhibit stronger sensitivities to ozone than found by field studies or in CESM simulations. We also find a strong anticorrelation between crop sensitivities and average ozone levels, reflecting biological adaptive ozone resistance that is not accounted for in current generation of crop models. Our results show that a more complete understanding of ozone-vegetation interactions is necessary to derive more realistic future projections of climate, air quality, ecosystem functions and food security.

Evaluation of the MACC operational forecast system - potential and challenges of global near-real-time modelling with respect to reactive gases in the troposphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Bouarar, I.; Brunke, E.-G.; Clerbaux, C.; Cupeiro, M.; Cristofanelli, P.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Flentje, H.; George, M.; Gilge, S.; Hilboll, A.; Inness, A.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Richter, A.; Ries, L.; Spangl, W.; Stein, O.; Weller, R.; Zerefos, C.

2015-12-01

The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project represents the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) (http://www.copernicus.eu/), which became fully operational during 2015. The global near-real-time MACC model production run for aerosol and reactive gases provides daily analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition fields. It is the only assimilation system worldwide that is operational to produce global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the MACC analysis system to simulate tropospheric concentrations of reactive gases covering the period between 2009 and 2012. A validation was performed based on carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) surface observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network, the O3 surface observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and, furthermore, NO2 tropospheric columns, as well as CO total columns, derived from satellite sensors. The MACC system proved capable of reproducing reactive gas concentrations with consistent quality; however, with a seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations - for northern hemispheric surface O3 mixing ratios, positive biases appear during the warm seasons and negative biases during the cold parts of the year, with monthly modified normalised mean biases (MNMBs) ranging between -30 and 30 % at the surface. Model biases are likely to result from difficulties in the simulation of vertical mixing at night and deficiencies in the model's dry deposition parameterisation. Observed tropospheric columns of NO2 and CO could be reproduced correctly during the warm seasons, but are mostly underestimated by the model during the cold seasons, when anthropogenic emissions are at their highest level, especially over the US, Europe and Asia. Monthly MNMBs of the satellite data evaluation range from values between -110 and 40 % for NO2 and at most -20 % for CO, over the investigated regions. The underestimation is likely to result from a combination of errors concerning the dry deposition parameterisation and certain limitations in the current emission inventories, together with an insufficiently established seasonality in the emissions.

Seltzer_et_al_2016

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset supports the modeling study of Seltzer et al. (2016) published in Atmospheric Environment. In this study, techniques typically used for future air quality projections are applied to a historical 11-year period to assess the performance of the modeling system when the driving meteorological conditions are obtained using dynamical downscaling of coarse-scale fields without correcting toward higher resolution observations. The Weather Research and Forecasting model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model are used to simulate regional climate and air quality over the contiguous United States for 2000-2010. The air quality simulations for that historical period are then compared to observations from four national networks. Comparisons are drawn between defined performance metrics and other published modeling results for predicted ozone, fine particulate matter, and speciated fine particulate matter. The results indicate that the historical air quality simulations driven by dynamically downscaled meteorology are typically within defined modeling performance benchmarks and are consistent with results from other published modeling studies using finer-resolution meteorology. This indicates that the regional climate and air quality modeling framework utilized here does not introduce substantial bias, which provides confidence in the method??s use for future air quality projections.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Seltzer, K., C

A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cariolle, D.; Teyssèdre, H.

2007-01-01

This article describes the validation of a linear parameterization of the ozone photochemistry for use in upper tropospheric and stratospheric studies. The present work extends a previously developed scheme by improving the 2D model used to derive the coefficients of the parameterization. The chemical reaction rates are updated from a compilation that includes recent laboratory works. Furthermore, the polar ozone destruction due to heterogeneous reactions at the surface of the polar stratospheric clouds is taken into account as a function of the stratospheric temperature and the total chlorine content. Two versions of the parameterization are tested. The first one only requires the resolution of a continuity equation for the time evolution of the ozone mixing ratio, the second one uses one additional equation for a cold tracer. The parameterization has been introduced into the chemical transport model MOCAGE. The model is integrated with wind and temperature fields from the ECMWF operational analyses over the period 2000-2004. Overall, the results show a very good agreement between the modelled ozone distribution and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data and the "in-situ" vertical soundings. During the course of the integration the model does not show any drift and the biases are generally small. The model also reproduces fairly well the polar ozone variability, with notably the formation of "ozone holes" in the southern hemisphere with amplitudes and seasonal evolutions that follow the dynamics and time evolution of the polar vortex. The introduction of the cold tracer further improves the model simulation by allowing additional ozone destruction inside air masses exported from the high to the mid-latitudes, and by maintaining low ozone contents inside the polar vortex of the southern hemisphere over longer periods in spring time. It is concluded that for the study of climatic scenarios or the assimilation of ozone data, the present parameterization gives an interesting alternative to the introduction of detailed and computationally costly chemical schemes into general circulation models.

"Ozone" - the new NEMESIS of canker sore.

PubMed

Dharmavaram, Ayesha Thabusum; Reddy, R Sudhakara; Nallakunta, Rajesh

2015-03-01

Recurrent aphthous ulceration or recurrent aphthous stomatitis is one of the most debilitating and painful oral mucosal disease. This disease entity has no specific cause to occur and no proper laboratory procedures are present to elicit the diagnosis. The treatment options are largely palliative and aimed at reducing symptoms thereby improving patient's oral condition. In the present study the subjects witnessed alleviation of clinical symptoms related to the aphthous ulceration. The aim of the study was to explore the effectiveness of ozonated oil in the treatment of recurrent aphthous ulcer and to compare with sessame oil in order to analyse the effectiveness between the two topical oil medications. A single-blinded placebo-controlled trial comprising of 30 subjects with recurrent aphthous ulcers were divided into Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 with 10 subjects in each group was performed. Patients in Group 1 received ozonated oil, Group 2 received sesame oil and Group 3 received placebo. Treatment response was assessed by measures of pain reduction, ulcer duration on 2(nd), 4(th) and 6(th) day. Data were analyzed using Wilcokson signed rank test and Friedman test. Participants treated with ozonated oil showed significant reduction in ulcer size, erythema and also alleviated the ulcer pain on 4(th) day of evaluation when compared to sesame oil and placebo group. On 6(th) day subjects treated with ozonated oil and sesame oil showed significant reduction in ulcer size and erythema. No significant difference was observed in placebo group when compared with other two groups on subsequent 2(nd), 4(th) and 6(th) day of evaluation. Ozonated oil and sessame oil, both showed similar effectiveness in relieving the ulcer pain. Ozone with its wide variety of inherent properties has proven to be choice of treatment in completely relieving the ulcer pain and ulcer size when compared with that of its counter medication (i.e. sesame oil).Therefore the results obtained in the present study forecast ozone to be used as a novel treatment approach in recurrent aphthous ulcers.

Regional-scale modeling of near-ground ozone in the Central East China, source attributions and an assessment of outflow to East Asia The role of regional-scale transport during MTX2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wang, Z.; Akimoto, H.; Yamaji, K.; Takigawa, M.; Pochanart, P.; Liu, Y.; Kanaya, Y.

2008-07-01

A 3-D regional chemical transport model, the Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System (NAQPMS), with an on-line tracer tagging module was applied to study the source of the near-ground (<1.5 km above ground level) ozone at Mt. Tai (36.25°N, 117.10°E, 1534 m a.s.l.) in Central East China (CEC) during the Mount Tai eXperiment 2006 (MTX2006): regional ozone photochemistry and aerosol studies in Central East China in June, 2006. The model reproduced the temporal and spatial variations of near-ground ozone and other pollutants. In particular, the model captured highly polluted and clean cases well. The simulated near-ground ozone over CEC is 60 85 ppbv (parts per billion by volume), higher than those (20 50 ppbv) in Japan and over the North Pacific. The simulated tagged tracer indicates that the regional-scale transport of chemically produced ozone over other areas in CEC contributes to the most fractions (49%) of the near-ground mean ozone at Mt. Tai in June, rather than the in-situ photochemistry (12%). Due to high anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, the contributions of the ground ozone from the southern part of CEC plays the most important role (32.4 ppbv, 37.9% of total ozone) in the monthly mean ozone concentration at Mt. Tai, which even reached 59 ppbv (62%) on 6 7 June 2006. The monthly mean horizontal distribution of chemically produced ozone from various source regions indicates that the spatial distribution of O3 over CEC is controlled by the photochemical reactions. In addition, the regional-scale transport of pollutants also plays an important role in the spatial and temporal distribution of ozone over CEC. The chemically produced ozone from the southern part of the study region can be transported northeastwardly to the northern rim of CEC. The mean contribution is 5 10 ppbv, and it can reach 25 ppbv during high ozone events. This work also studied the outflow of CEC ozone and its precursors, as well as their influences and contributions to the ozone level over adjacent regions/countries. It shows that the contribution of CEC ozone to mean ozone mixing ratios over Korea Peninsula and Japan is 5 15 ppbv, of which about half was due to the direct transport of ozone from CEC and half was contributed by the ozone produced locally by the transported ozone precursors from CEC.

Impacts of Ozone-vegetation Interactions and Biogeochemical Feedbacks on Atmospheric Composition and Air Quality Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeke, M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Lombardozzi, D.; Val Martin, M.

2015-12-01

Surface ozone pollution is one of the major environmental concerns due to its damaging effects on human and vegetation. One of the largest uncertainties of future surface ozone prediction comes from its interaction with vegetation under a changing climate. Ozone can be modulated by vegetation through, e.g., biogenic emissions, dry deposition and transpiration. These processes are in turn affected by chronic exposure to ozone via lowered photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance. Both ozone and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by climate change. To better understand these climate-ozone-vegetation interactions and possible feedbacks on ozone itself via vegetation, we implement an online ozone-vegetation scheme [Lombardozzi et al., 2015] into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with active atmospheric chemistry, climate and land surface components. Previous overestimation of surface ozone in eastern US, Canada and Europe is shown to be reduced by >8 ppb, reflecting improved model-observation comparison. Simulated surface ozone is lower by 3.7 ppb on average globally. Such reductions (and improvements) in simulated ozone are caused mainly by lower isoprene emission arising from reduced leaf area index in response to chronic ozone exposure. Effects via transpiration are also potentially significant but require better characterization. Such findings suggest that ozone-vegetation interaction may substantially alter future ozone simulations, especially under changing climate and ambient CO2 levels, which would further modulate ozone-vegetation interactions. Inclusion of such interactions in Earth system models is thus necessary to give more realistic estimation and prediction of surface ozone. This is crucial for better policy formulation regarding air quality, land use and climate change mitigation. Reference list: Lombardozzi, D., et al. "The Influence of Chronic Ozone Exposure on Global Carbon and Water Cycles." Journal of Climate 28.1 (2015): 292-305.

Mesospheric ozone measurements by SAGE II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chu, D. A.; Cunnold, D. M.

1994-01-01

SAGE II observations of ozone at sunrise and sunset (solar zenith angle = 90 deg) at approximately the same tropical latitude and on the same day exhibit larger concentrations at sunrise than at sunset between 55 and 65 km. Because of the rapid conversion between atomic oxygen and ozone, the onion-peeling scheme used in SAGE II retrievals, which is based on an assumption of constant ozone, is invalid. A one-dimensional photochemical model is used to simulate the diurnal variation of ozone particularly within the solar zenith angle of 80 deg - 100 deg. This model indicates that the retrieved SAGE II sunrise and sunset ozone values are both overestimated. The Chapman reactions produce an adequate simulation of the ozone sunrise/sunset ratio only below 60 km, while above 60 km this ratio is highly affected by the odd oxygen loss due to odd hydrogen reactions, particularly OH. The SAGE II ozone measurements are in excellent agreement with model results to which an onion peeling procedure is applied. The SAGE II ozone observations provide information on the mesospheric chemistry not only through the ozone profile averages but also from the sunrise/sunset ratio.

Tropospheric Ozone from Assimilation of Aura Data using Different Definitions of the Tropopause

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Wargan, K.; Chang, L.-P.; Hayashi, H.; Pawson, S.; Pawson, Steven; Livesey, N.; Bhartia, P. K.

2006-01-01

Ozone data from Aura OMI and MLS instruments were assimilated into the general circulation model (GCM) constrained by assimilated meteorological fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA Goddard. Properties of tropospheric ozone and their sensitivity to the definition of the tropopause are investigated. Three definitions of the tropopause are considered: (1) dynamical (using potential vorticity and potential temperature), (2) using temperature lapse rate, and (3) using a fixed ozone value. Comparisons of the tropospheric ozone columns using these tropopause definitions will be presented and evaluated against coincident profiles from ozone sondes. Assimilated ozone profiles are used to identify possible tropopause folding events, which are important for stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Each profile is searched for multiple levels at which ozone attains the value typical of the troposphere-stratosphere transition in order to identify possible tropopause folds. Constrained by the dynamics from a global model and by assimilation of Aura ozone data every 3-hours, this data set provides an opportunity to study ozone evolution in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere with high temporal resolution.

The impact of communicating information about air pollution events on public health.

PubMed

McLaren, J; Williams, I D

2015-12-15

Short-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with exacerbation of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This study investigated the relationship between emergency hospital admissions for asthma, COPD and episodes of poor air quality in an English city (Southampton) from 2008-2013. The city's council provides a forecasting service for poor air quality to individuals with respiratory disease to reduce preventable admissions to hospital and this has been evaluated. Trends in nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulate matter concentrations were related to hospital admissions data using regression analysis. The impacts of air quality on emergency admissions were quantified using the relative risks associated with each pollutant. Seasonal and weekly trends were apparent for both air pollution and hospital admissions, although there was a weak relationship between the two. The air quality forecasting service proved ineffective at reducing hospital admissions. Improvements to the health forecasting service are necessary to protect the health of susceptible individuals, as there is likely to be an increasing need for such services in the future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On Springtime Ozone Enhancements in the Lower Troposphere Over Beijing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J.; Liu, H.; Chan, C.; Crawford, J. H.; Considine, D. B.; Zhang, Y.; Zheng, X.; Oltmans, S. J.; Liu, S. C.; Thouret, V.

2012-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas, the primary source of hydroxyl radical (OH) that controls the tropospheric oxidizing capacity, and a major air pollutant near the surface. Previous studies showed that ozone concentrations in the lower troposphere (LT) over Beijing have increased over the past two decades as a result of rapid industrialization in China. As part of an ozonesonde sounding campaign, called Transport of Air Pollutants and Tropospheric Ozone over China (TAPTO-China), intensive measurements of ozone vertical profiles (16 in total) were conducted in Beijing during April 11 - May 15, 2005. Thirteen vertical profiles were also sampled by the Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program during April 3 - May 29, 2005. High ozone concentrations (up to 94.7 ppbv) were frequently observed in the LT (~1.5-2km) during this period. We evaluate here the capability of a 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem at 2°x2.5° resolution) to reproduce these ozone enhancements, and use the model to examine transport pathways for ozone pollution and quantify their sources. The model captures the occurrences but significantly underestimates the magnitude of ozone enhancements. By tagging ozone produced in different source regions and conducting sensitivity simulations with the model, we show that Asian troposphere and Asian anthropogenic pollution made the major contributions to those ozone enhancements. Contributions from European and North American troposphere and anthropogenic pollution reduced during these events, compared to those days without ozone enhancements. We find that most of the ozone enhancements observed in the LT occurred under southerly wind and warmer conditions. Their occurrence frequency appears to be related to the onset of Asian summer monsoon. The influence of regional transport from different source regions in East Asia will also be discussed.

An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980s. Appendix K

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacKay, Robert M.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Shia, Run-Lie; Yang, Yajaing; Zhou, Shuntai; Molnar, Gyula

1997-01-01

In order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.

Productions of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Surface Waters from Reactions with Atmospheric Ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Frances; Bell, Thomas; Yang, Mingxi

2017-04-01

Ozone (O3) is a key atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and air pollutant. In marine environments, some atmospheric ozone is lost by reactions with aqueous compounds (e.g. dissolved organic material, DOM, dimethyl sulfide, DMS, and iodide) near the sea surface. These reactions also lead to formations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Removal of O3 by the ocean remains a large uncertainty in global and regional chemical transport models, hampering coastal air quality forecasts. To better understand the role of the ocean in controlling O3 concentrations in the coastal marine atmosphere, we designed and implemented a series of laboratory experiments whereby ambient surface seawater was bubbled with O3-enriched, VOC-free air in a custom-made glass bubble equilibration system. Gas phase concentrations of a range of VOCs were monitored continuously over the mass range m/z 33 - 137 at the outflow of the bubble equilibrator by a proton transfer reaction - mass spectrometer (PTR-MS). Gas phase O3 was also measured at the input and output of the equilibrator to monitor the uptake due to reactions with dissolved compounds in seawater. We observed consistent productions of a variety of VOCs upon reaction with O3, notably isoprene, aldehydes, and ketones. Aqueous DMS is rapidly removed from the reactions with O3. To test the importance of dissolved organic matter precursors, we added increasing (milliliter) volumes of Emiliania huxleyi culture to the equilibrator filled with aged seawater, and observed significant linear increases in gas phase concentrations of a number of VOCs. Reactions between DOM and O3 at the sea-air interface represent a potentially significant source of VOCs in marine air and a sink of atmospheric O3.

CMAQ predictions of tropospheric ozone in the U.S. southwest: influence of lateral boundary and synoptic conditions.

PubMed

Shi, Chune; Fernando, H J S; Hyde, Peter

2012-02-01

Phoenix, Arizona, has been an ozone nonattainment area for the past several years and it remains so. Mitigation strategies call for improved modeling methodologies as well as understanding of ozone formation and destruction mechanisms during seasons of high ozone events. To this end, the efficacy of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) based on satellite measurements (adjusted-LBCs) was investigated, vis-à-vis the default-LBCs, for improving the predictions of Models-3/CMAQ photochemical air quality modeling system. The model evaluations were conducted using hourly ground-level ozone and NO(2) concentrations as well as tropospheric NO(2) columns and ozone concentrations in the middle to upper troposphere, with the 'design' periods being June and July of 2006. Both included high ozone episodes, but the June (pre-monsoon) period was characterized by local thermal circulation whereas the July (monsoon) period by synoptic influence. Overall, improved simulations were noted for adjusted-LBC runs for ozone concentrations both at the ground-level and in the middle to upper troposphere, based on EPA-recommended model performance metrics. The probability of detection (POD) of ozone exceedances (>75ppb, 8-h averages) for the entire domain increased from 20.8% for the default-LBC run to 33.7% for the adjusted-LBC run. A process analysis of modeling results revealed that ozone within PBL during bulk of the pre-monsoon season is contributed by local photochemistry and vertical advection, while the contributions of horizontal and vertical advections are comparable in the monsoon season. The process analysis with adjusted-LBC runs confirms the contributions of vertical advection to episodic high ozone days, and hence elucidates the importance of improving predictability of upper levels with improved LBCs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of IDEA product for GOES-R aerosol data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hai; Hoff, Raymond M.; Kondragunta, Shobha

2009-08-01

The NOAA GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) will have nearly the same capabilities as NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to generate multi-wavelength retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with high temporal and spatial resolution, which can be used as a surrogate of surface particulate measurements such as PM2.5 (particulate matter with diameter less than 2.5 μm). To prepare for the launch of GOES-R and its application in the air quality forecasting, we have transferred and enhanced the Infusing satellite Data into Environmental Applications (IDEA) product from University of Wisconsin to NOAA NESDIS. IDEA was created through a NASA/EPA/NOAA cooperative effort. The enhanced IDEA product provides near-real-time imagery of AOD derived from multiple satellite sensors including MODIS Terra, MODIS Aqua, GOES EAST and GOES WEST imager. Air quality forecast guidance is produced through a trajectory model initiated at locations with high AOD retrievals and/or high aerosol index (AI) from OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument). The product is currently running at http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq/. The IDEA system will be tested using the GOES-R ABI proxy dataset, and will be ready to operate with GOES-R aerosol data when GOES-R is launched.

Spatial regression analysis on 32 years of total column ozone data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knibbe, J. S.; van der A, R. J.; de Laat, A. T. J.

2014-08-01

Multiple-regression analyses have been performed on 32 years of total ozone column data that was spatially gridded with a 1 × 1.5° resolution. The total ozone data consist of the MSR (Multi Sensor Reanalysis; 1979-2008) and 2 years of assimilated SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) ozone data (2009-2010). The two-dimensionality in this data set allows us to perform the regressions locally and investigate spatial patterns of regression coefficients and their explanatory power. Seasonal dependencies of ozone on regressors are included in the analysis. A new physically oriented model is developed to parameterize stratospheric ozone. Ozone variations on nonseasonal timescales are parameterized by explanatory variables describing the solar cycle, stratospheric aerosols, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and stratospheric alternative halogens which are parameterized by the effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine (EESC). For several explanatory variables, seasonally adjusted versions of these explanatory variables are constructed to account for the difference in their effect on ozone throughout the year. To account for seasonal variation in ozone, explanatory variables describing the polar vortex, geopotential height, potential vorticity and average day length are included. Results of this regression model are compared to that of a similar analysis based on a more commonly applied statistically oriented model. The physically oriented model provides spatial patterns in the regression results for each explanatory variable. The EESC has a significant depleting effect on ozone at mid- and high latitudes, the solar cycle affects ozone positively mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, stratospheric aerosols affect ozone negatively at high northern latitudes, the effect of QBO is positive and negative in the tropics and mid- to high latitudes, respectively, and ENSO affects ozone negatively between 30° N and 30° S, particularly over the Pacific. The contribution of explanatory variables describing seasonal ozone variation is generally large at mid- to high latitudes. We observe ozone increases with potential vorticity and day length and ozone decreases with geopotential height and variable ozone effects due to the polar vortex in regions to the north and south of the polar vortices. Recovery of ozone is identified globally. However, recovery rates and uncertainties strongly depend on choices that can be made in defining the explanatory variables. The application of several trend models, each with their own pros and cons, yields a large range of recovery rate estimates. Overall these results suggest that care has to be taken in determining ozone recovery rates, in particular for the Antarctic ozone hole.

The role of a peri-urban forest on air quality improvement in the Mexico City megalopolis.

PubMed

Baumgardner, Darrel; Varela, Sebastian; Escobedo, Francisco J; Chacalo, Alicia; Ochoa, Carlos

2012-04-01

Air quality improvement by a forested, peri-urban national park was quantified by combining the Urban Forest Effects (UFORE) and the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) models. We estimated the ecosystem-level annual pollution removal function of the park's trees, shrub and grasses using pollution concentration data for carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O(3)), and particulate matter less than 10 microns in diameter (PM(10)), modeled meteorological and pollution variables, and measured forest structure data. Ecosystem-level O(3) and CO removal and formation were also analyzed for a representative month. Total annual air quality improvement of the park's vegetation was approximately 0.02% for CO, 1% for O(3,) and 2% for PM(10), of the annual concentrations for these three pollutants. Results can be used to understand the air quality regulation ecosystem services of peri-urban forests and regional dynamics of air pollution emissions from major urban areas. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using CATS Near-Real-time Lidar Observations to Monitor and Constrain Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, E. J.; Yorks, J.; Krotkov, N. A.; da Silva, A. M.; Mcgill, M.

2016-01-01

An eruption of Italian volcano Mount Etna on 3 December 2015 produced fast-moving sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfate aerosol clouds that traveled across Asia and the Pacific Ocean, reaching North America in just 5 days. The Ozone Profiler and Mapping Suite's Nadir Mapping UV spectrometer aboard the U.S. National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite observed the horizontal transport of the SO2 cloud. Vertical profiles of the colocated volcanic sulfate aerosols were observed between 11.5 and 13.5 km by the new Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) space-based lidar aboard the International Space Station. Backward trajectory analysis estimates the SO2 cloud altitude at 7-12 km. Eulerian model simulations of the SO2 cloud constrained by CATS measurements produced more accurate dispersion patterns compared to those initialized with the back trajectory height estimate. The near-real-time data processing capabilities of CATS are unique, and this work demonstrates the use of these observations to monitor and model volcanic clouds.

Using CATS Near-Real-Time Lidar Observations to Monitor and Constrain Volcanic Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Forecasts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hughes, E. J.; Yorks, J.; Krotkov, N. A.; Da Silva, A. M.; McGill, M.

2016-01-01

An eruption of Italian volcano Mount Etna on 3 December 2015 produced fast-moving sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfate aerosol clouds that traveled across Asia and the Pacific Ocean, reaching North America in just 5days. The Ozone Profiler and Mapping Suite's Nadir Mapping UV spectrometer aboard the U.S. National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite observed the horizontal transport of the SO2 cloud. Vertical profiles of the colocated volcanic sulfate aerosols were observed between 11.5 and 13.5 km by the new Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) space-based lidar aboard the International Space Station. Backward trajectory analysis estimates the SO2 cloud altitude at 7-12 km. Eulerian model simulations of the SO2 cloud constrained by CATS measurements produced more accurate dispersion patterns compared to those initialized with the back trajectory height estimate. The near-real-time data processing capabilities of CATS are unique, and this work demonstrates the use of these observations to monitor and model volcanic clouds.

Impact Assessment of Global Temperature Perturbations on Urban and Regional Ozone Levels in South Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; John, Kuruvilla; Farooqui, Zuber

The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report predicts significant temperature increases over the century which constitutes the pulse of climate variability in a region. A modeling study was performed to identify the potential impact of temperature perturbations on tropospheric ozone concentrations in South Texas. A future case modeling scenario which incorporates appropriate emission reduction strategies without accounting for climatic inconsistencies was used in this study. The photochemical modeling was undertaken for a high ozone episode of 13-20 September 1999, and a future modeling scenario was projected for ozone episode days in 2007 utilizing the meteorological conditions prevalent in the base year. The temperatures were increased uniformly throughout the simulation domain and through the vertical layers by 2°C, 3°C, 4°C, 5°C, and 6°C, respectively in the future year modeling case. These temperature perturbations represented the outcome of extreme climate change within the study region. Significantly large changes in peak ozone concentrations were predicted by the photochemical model. For the 6°C temperature perturbation, the greatest amplification in the maximum 8-h ozone concentrations within urban areas of the modeling domain was approximately 12 ppb. In addition, transboundary flux from major industrialized urban areas played a major role in supplementing the high ozone concentrations during the perturbed temperature scenarios. The Unites States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) is currently proposing stricter 8-h ozone standards. The effect of temperature perturbations on ozone exceedances based on current and potential stringent future National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) was also studied. Temperatures had an appreciable spatial impact on the 8-h ozone exceedances with a considerable increase in spatial area exceeding the NAAQS for the 8-h ozone levels within the study region for each successive augmentation in temperature. The number of exceedances of the 8-h ozone standard increased significantly with each degree rise of temperature with the problem becoming even more acute in light of stricter future proposed standards of ozone.

Tropospheric ozone in the western Pacific Rim: Analysis of satellite and surface-based observations along with comprehensive 3-D model simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, Sun-Woo; Carmichael, Gregory R.

1994-01-01

Tropospheric ozone production and transport in mid-latitude eastern Asia is studied. Data analysis of surface-based ozone measurements in Japan and satellite-based tropospheric column measurements of the entire western Pacific Rim are combined with results from three-dimensional model simulations to investigate the diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations of ozone in this region. Surface ozone measurements from Japan show distinct seasonal variation with a spring peak and summer minimum. Satellite studies of the entire tropospheric column of ozone show high concentrations in both the spring and summer seasons. Finally, preliminary model simulation studies show good agreement with observed values.

Effect of vibrationally excited oxygen on ozone production in the stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patten, K. O., Jr.; Connell, P. S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Slanger, T. G.; Froidevaux, L.

1994-01-01

Photolysis of vibrationally excited oxygen produced by ultraviolet photolysis of ozone in the upper stratosphere is incorporated into the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory two-dimensional zonally averaged chemical-radiative-transport model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The importance of this potential contributor of odd oxygen to the concentration of ozone is evaluated based on recent information on vibrational distributions of excited oxygen and on preliminary studies of energy transfer from the excited oxygen. When energy transfer rate constants similar to those of Toumi et al. (1991) are assumed, increases in model ozone concentrations of up to 4.0% in the upper stratosphere are found, and the model ozone concentrations are found to agree slightly better with measurements, including recent data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. However, the ozone increase is only 0.3% when the larger energy transfer rate constants indicated by recent experimental work are applied to the model. An ozone increase of 1% at 50 km requires energy transfer rate constants one-twentieth those of the preliminary observations. As a result, vibrationally excited oxygen processes probably do not contribute enough ozone to be significant in models of the upper stratosphere.

Multi-Model Assessment of the Factors Driving Stratospheric Ozone Evolution Over the 21st Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, L. D.; Plummer, D. A.; Waugh, D. W.; Austin, J.; Scinocca, J.; Douglass, A. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.;

One-year simulation of ozone and particulate matter in China using WRF/CMAQ modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jianlin; Chen, Jianjun; Ying, Qi; Zhang, Hongliang

2016-08-01

China has been experiencing severe air pollution in recent decades. Although an ambient air quality monitoring network for criteria pollutants has been constructed in over 100 cities since 2013 in China, the temporal and spatial characteristics of some important pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM) components, remain unknown, limiting further studies investigating potential air pollution control strategies to improve air quality and associating human health outcomes with air pollution exposure. In this study, a yearlong (2013) air quality simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was conducted to provide detailed temporal and spatial information of ozone (O3), total PM2.5, and chemical components. Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) was used for anthropogenic emissions and observation data obtained from the national air quality monitoring network were collected to validate model performance. The model successfully reproduces the O3 and PM2.5 concentrations at most cities for most months, with model performance statistics meeting the performance criteria. However, overprediction of O3 generally occurs at low concentration range while underprediction of PM2.5 happens at low concentration range in summer. Spatially, the model has better performance in southern China than in northern China, central China, and Sichuan Basin. Strong seasonal variations of PM2.5 exist and wind speed and direction play important roles in high PM2.5 events. Secondary components have more boarder distribution than primary components. Sulfate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), and primary organic aerosol (POA) are the most important PM2.5 components. All components have the highest concentrations in winter except secondary organic aerosol (SOA). This study proves the ability of the CMAQ model to reproduce severe air pollution in China, identifies the directions where improvements are needed, and provides information for human exposure to multiple pollutants for assessing health effects.

Direct Measurements of the Ozone Production Rate: Methods, Measurements, and Implications for Air Quality Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, W. H.; Baier, B.; Miller, D. O.; Apel, E. C.; Wisthaler, A.; Fried, A.; Cantrell, C. A.; Blake, D. R.; Brown, S. S.; McDuffie, E. E.; Kaser, L.; Long, R.; Weinheimer, A. J.

2017-12-01

Ground level ozone pollution remains a health hazard in the United States despite dramatic reductions due to regulatory actions over the past three decades. The key to understanding the link between the ozone precursor gases, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and ozone pollution is the ozone production rate. However, in air quality models, uncertainties in emissions and meteorology hide the true sensitivity of modeled ozone to the chemistry of the ozone production rate. A better way to understand the ozone production rate is to measure it directly. We devised a method for measuring the ozone production rate directly and have deployed it in a few field studies. In this presentation, we will discuss some fairly recent observations, the strengths and weaknesses of the current method, and a path toward routine monitoring of the ozone production rate.

Testing the PV-Theta Mapping Technique in a 3-D CTM Model Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frith, Stacey M.

2004-01-01

Mapping lower stratospheric ozone into potential vorticity (PV)- potential temperature (Theta) coordinates is a common technique employed to analyze sparse data sets. Ozone transformed into a flow-following dynamical coordinate system is insensitive to meteorological variations. Therefore data from a wide range of times/locations can be compared, so long as the measurements were made in the same airmass (as defined by PV). Moreover, once a relationship between ozone and PV/Theta is established, a full 3D ozone field can be estimated from this relationship and the 3D analyzed PV field. However, ozone data mapped in this fashion can be hampered by noisy PV fields, or "mis-matches" in the resolution and/or exact location of the ozone and PV measurements. In this study, we investigate the PV-ozone relationship using output from a recent 50-year run of the Goddard 3D chemical transport model (CTM). Model constituents are transported using off-line dynamics from the finite volume general circulation model (FVGCM). By using the internally consistent model PV and ozone fields, we minimize noise due to mis-matching and resolution issues. We calculate correlations between model ozone and PV throughout the stratosphere, and test the sensitivity of the technique to initial data resolution. To do this we degrade the model data to that of various satellite instruments, then compare the mapped fields derived from the sub-sampled data to the full resolution model data. With these studies we can determine appropriate limits for the PV-theta mapping technique in latitude, altitude, and as a function of original data resolution.

Uncertainties in Episodic Ozone Modeling Stemming from Uncertainties in the Meteorological Fields.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; Trivikrama Rao, S.

2001-02-01

This paper examines the uncertainty associated with photochemical modeling using the Variable-Grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V) with two different prognostic meteorological models. The meteorological fields for ozone episodes that occurred during 17-20 June, 12-15 July, and 30 July-2 August in the summer of 1995 were derived from two meteorological models, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The simulated ozone concentrations from the two photochemical modeling systems, namely, RAMS/UAM-V and MM5/UAM-V, are compared with each other and with ozone observations from several monitoring sites in the eastern United States. The overall results indicate that neither modeling system performs significantly better than the other in reproducing the observed ozone concentrations. The results reveal that there is a significant variability, about 20% at the 95% level of confidence, in the modeled 1-h ozone concentration maxima from one modeling system to the other for a given episode. The model-to-model variability in the simulated ozone levels is for most part attributable to the unsystematic type of errors. The directionality for emission controls (i.e., NOx versus VOC sensitivity) is also evaluated with UAM-V using hypothetical emission reductions. The results reveal that not only the improvement in ozone but also the VOC-sensitive and NOx-sensitive regimes are influenced by the differences in the meteorological fields. Both modeling systems indicate that a large portion of the eastern United States is NOx limited, but there are model-to-model and episode-to-episode differences at individual grid cells regarding the efficacy of emission reductions.

Atmospheric Ozone 1985. Assessment of our understanding of the processes controlling its present distribution and change, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

Topics addressed include: assessment models; model predictions of ozone changes; ozone and temperature trends; trace gas effects on climate; kinetics and photchemical data base; spectroscopic data base (infrared to microwave); instrument intercomparisons and assessments; and monthly mean distribution of ozone and temperature.

Stratospheric Ozone Intrusion over the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pour Biazar, A.; Khan, M. N.; kuang, S.; Park, Y. H.; Emmons, L. K.; McNider, R. T.; Newchurch, M.

2011-12-01

On November 6, 2010, ozonesonde measurements at Huntsville, Alabama, indicated a strong stable and extremely dry layer of air with high ozone concentration right above the boundary layer from 2-km to 3-km altitude. This layer had all the characteristics of stratospheric air. Subsequent investigation using model simulation, satellite observations, and lidar measurements at the site was able to explain this event and indicated that the high ozone was indeed of stratospheric origin and the stratospheric ozone intrusion was due to a tropopause folding event. Model results were compared to lidar measurements of November 5th and 6th and exhibited good agreement suggesting that the model was able to reasonably capture the event. Further examination of the model results shows the extent of the stratospheric incursion over the eastern United States and indicates that the high ozone observed at Huntsville is only a small fragment of the high ozone that was transported over the Gulf of Mexico. The results from this case study show that periodic ozone transport events due to tropopause folding can significantly contribute to the mid-latitude ozone burden in the lower troposphere.

A two-dimensional photochemical model of the atmosphere. I Chlorocarbon emissions and their effect on stratospheric ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gidel, L. T.; Crutzen, P. J.; Fishman, J.

1983-01-01

A two-dimensional photochemical model is used to examine changes to the ozone layer caused by emissions of CFCl3, CF2Cl2, CH3CCl3 and CCl4. The influence of a possible secular increase in tropospheric methane up to 2 percent per year was found to be small, although it acts to mask decreases in total ozone caused by the chlorocarbons. Increasing NO(x) emissions caused by industralization also tend to mask decreases in total ozone and may have caused total ozone to increase by about 1 percent. The model-calculated ozone decreases are estimated to be about 3 percent by 1980. This estimate is higher than estimates by similar models, although it is noted that CCl4 and CH3CCl3 emissions are included in the model in addition to CFCl3 and CF2Cl2. This is significant because the model indicates that CCl4 has dominated the ozone depletions so far, and knowledge of the historical emission rate of CCl4 to the atmosphere is incomplete. There remain sufficient significant disagreements between theoretical and observed concentrations and variabilities, particularly for odd nitrogen and ClO, to caution against assigning too much confidence in the calculated ozone depletion.

Improved reference models for middle atmosphere ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keating, G. M.; Pitts, M. C.; Chen, C.

1990-01-01

This paper describes the improvements introduced into the original version of ozone reference model of Keating and Young (1985, 1987) which is to be incorporated in the next COSPAR International Reference Atmosphere (CIRA). The ozone reference model will provide information on the global ozone distribution (including the ozone vertical structure as a function of month and latitude from 25 to 90 km) combining data from five recent satellite experiments: the Nimbus 7 LIMS, Nimbus 7 SBUV, AE-2 Stratospheric Aerosol Gas Experiment (SAGE), Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) UV Spectrometer, and SME 1.27 Micron Airglow. The improved version of the reference model uses reprocessed AE-2 SAGE data (sunset) and extends the use of SAGE data from 1981 to the 1981-1983 time period. Comparisons are presented between the results of this ozone model and various nonsatellite measurements at different levels in the middle atmosphere.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms.

PubMed

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-10-09

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms ( Bacillus subtilis , B. cereus , B. pumilus , Escherichia coli , Pseudomonas fluorescens , Aspergillus niger , Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum ) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O₃/m³ O₂, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process.

Monitoring of Observation Errors in the Assimilation of Satellite Ozone Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Winslow, Nathan; Rood, Richard B.; Pawson, Steven

2003-01-01

The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of solar ultravioiet radiation. The ozone layer is currently in a fragile state because of depletion caused by man-made chemicals, especially chlorofluorocarbons. The state of the ozone layer is being monitored and evaluated by scientific experts around the world, in order to help policy makers assess the impacts of international protocols that control the production and release of ozone depleting chemicals. Scientists use a variety ozone measurements and models in order to form a comprehensive picture about the current state of the ozone layer, and to predict the future behavior (expected to be a recovery, as the abundance of the depleting chemicals decreases). Among the data sets used, those from satellite-borne instruments have the advantage of providing a wealth of information about the ozone distribution over most of the globe. Several instruments onboard American and international satellites make measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, from which atmospheric ozone amounts are estimated; long-term measurement programs enable monitoring of trends in ozone. However, the characteristics of satellite instruments change in time. For example, the instrument lenses through which measurements are made may deteriorate over time, or the satellite orbit may drift so that measurements over each location are made later and later in the day. These changes may increase the errors in the retrieved ozone amounts, and degrade the quality of estimated ozone amounts and of their variability. Our work focuses on combining the satellite ozone data with global models that capture atmospheric motion and ozone chemistry, using advanced statistical techniques: this is known as data assimilation. Our method provides a three-dimensional global ozone distribution that is consistent with both the satellite measurements and with our understanding of processes (described in the models) that control ozone distribution. Through the monitoring of statistical properties of the agreement between the data and the model, this approach also enables us to detect changes in the quality of ozone data retrieved from satellite-borne instrument measurements. This paper demonstrates that calculations of the changes in satellite data quality, and the impact these changes on the estimates of the global ozone distribution, can assist in maintaining the uniform quality of the satellite ozone data throughout the lifetime of these instruments, thus contributing to our understanding of long-term ozone change.

Children's and adults' knowledge and models of reasoning about the ozone layer and its depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leighton, Jacqueline P.; Bisanz, Gay L.

2003-01-01

As environmental concepts, the ozone layer and ozone hole are important to understand because they can profoundly influence our health. In this paper, we examined: (a) children's and adults' knowledge of the ozone layer and its depletion, and whether this knowledge increases with age' and (b) how the 'ozone layer' and 'ozone hole' might be structured as scientific concepts. We generated a standardized set of questions and used it to interview 24 kindergarten students, 48 Grade 3 students, 24 Grade 5 students, and 24 adults in university, in Canada. An analysis of participants' responses revealed that adults have more knowledge than children about the ozone layer and ozone hole, but both adults and children exhibit little knowledge about protecting themselves from the ozone hole. Moreover, only some participants exhibited 'mental models' in their conceptual understanding of the ozone layer and ozone hole. The implications of these results for health professionals, educators, and scientists are discussed.

Impact of Surface Emissions to the Zonal Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide for November 2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowman, K. W.; Jones, D.; Logan, J.; Worden, H.; Boersma, F.; Chang, R.; Kulawik, S.; Osterman, G.; Worden, J.

2008-01-01

The chemical and dynamical processes governing the zonal variability of tropical tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide are investigated for November 2004 using satellite observations, in-situ measurements, and chemical transport models in conjunction with inverse-estimated surface emissions. Vertical ozone profile estimates from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and ozone sonde measurements from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network show the so called zonal 'wave-one' pattern, which is characterized by peak ozone concentrations (70-80 ppb) centered over the Atlantic, as well as elevated concentrations of ozone over Indonesia and Australia (60-70 ppb) in the lower troposphere. Observational evidence from TES CO vertical profiles and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 columns point to regional surface emissions as an important contributor to the elevated ozone over Indonesia. This contribution is investigated with the GEOS-Chem chemistry and transport model using surface emission estimates derived from an optimal inverse model, which was constrained by TES and Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) CO profiles (Jones et al., 2007). These a posteriori estimates, which were over a factor of 2 greater than climatological emissions, reduced differences between GEOS-Chem and TES ozone observations by 30-40% and led to changes in GEOS-Chem upper tropospheric ozone of up to 40% over Indonesia. The remaining residual differences can be explained in part by upper tropospheric ozone produced from lightning NOx in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, model simulations from GEOS-Chem indicate that ozone over Indonesian/Australian is more sensitive to changes in surface emissions of NOx than ozone over the tropical Atlantic.

Exploring ozone pollution in Chengdu, southwestern China: A case study from radical chemistry to O3-VOC-NOx sensitivity.

PubMed

Tan, Zhaofeng; Lu, Keding; Jiang, Meiqing; Su, Rong; Dong, Huabin; Zeng, Limin; Xie, Shaodong; Tan, Qinwen; Zhang, Yuanhang

2018-09-15

We present the in-situ measurements in Chengdu, a major city in south west of China, in September 2016. The concentrations of ozone and its precursor were measured at four sites. Although the campaign was conducted in early autumn, up to 100 ppbv (parts per billion by volume) daily maximum ozone was often observed at all sites. The observed ozone concentrations showed good agreement at all sites, which implied that ozone pollution is a regional issue in Chengdu. To better understand the ozone formation in Chengdu, an observation based model is used in this study to calculate the RO x radical concentrations (RO x  = OH + HO 2  + RO 2 ) and ozone production rate (P(O 3 )). The model predicts OH daily maximum is in the range of 4-8 × 10 6  molecules cm -3 , and HO 2 and RO 2 are in the range of 3-6 × 10 8  molecules cm -3 . The modelled radical concentrations show a distinct difference between ozone pollution and attainment period. The relative incremental reactivity (RIR) results demonstrate that anthropogenic VOCs reduction is the most efficient way to mitigate ozone pollution at all sites, of which alkenes dominate >50% of the ozone production. Empirical kinetic modelling approach shows that three out of four sites are under the VOC-limited regime, while Pengzhou is in a transition regime due to the local petrochemical industry. The ozone budget analysis showed that the local ozone production driven by the photochemical process is important to the accumulation of ozone concentrations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Passive ozone network of Dallas: a modeling opportunity with community involvement. 2.

PubMed

Sather, M E; Varns, J L; Mulik, J D; Glen, G; Smith, L; Stallings, C

2001-11-15

Attaining the current lower tropospheric U.S. ozone standards continues to be a difficult task for many areas in the U.S. Concentrations of ozone above the standards negatively affects human health, agricultural crops, forests, and other ecosystem elements. This paper describes year two (1999) of a regional networking of passive and continuous ozone monitoring sites in the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) Metroplex region. The objectives of the second year of study were to (1) validate conclusions of the 1998 Passive Ozone Network of Dallas (POND) I study, (2) define the value of taking 12-h diurnal samples in addition to 24-h samples, and (3) add to the scientific knowledge base of rural/urban ozone comparison studies. Results of the POND II (1999) study demonstrated that ozone concentrations exceeding the new 8-h ozone standard could be recorded at least 130 km, or 80 miles, from the DFW Metroplex core in more rural areas. In addition, results of the POND II study indicated that ozone concentrations exceeding the 8-h standard probably occurred in areas recording a 12-h daytime ozone concentration above 60 parts per billion (ppb). The 12-h passive ozone data from POND II also suggests the relative magnitude of anthropogenic pollution influence could be assessed for rural passive ozone sites. The data from the POND II study provide modelers a rich database for future photochemical subgrid development for the DFW ozone nonattainment area. Indeed, the POND database provides a great amount of additional ozone ambient data covering 26 8-h and 13 1-h ozone standard exceedance days over an approximate 25000 km2 region. These data should help decrease uncertainties derived from future DFW ozone model exercises.

Comparison of different stomatal conductance algorithms for ozone flux modelling [Proceedings

Treesearch

P. Buker; L. D. Emberson; M. R. Ashmore; G. Gerosa; C. Jacobs; W. J. Massman; J. Muller; N. Nikolov; K. Novak; E. Oksanen; D. De La Torre; J. -P. Tuovinen

2006-01-01

The ozone deposition model (D03SE) that has been developed and applied within the EMEP photooxidant model (Emberson et al., 2000, Simpson et al. 2003) currently estimates stomatal ozone flux using a stomatal conductance (gs) model based on the multiplicative algorithm initially developed by Jarvis (1976). This model links gs to environmental and phenological parameters...

Impact of upper-level fine-scale structures in the deepening of a Mediterranean "hurricane"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claud, C.; Chaboureau, J.-P.; Argence, S.; Lambert, D.; Richard, E.; Gauthier, N.; Funatsu, B.; Arbogast, P.; Maynard, K.; Hauchecorne, A.

2009-09-01

Subsynoptic scale vortices that have been likened to tropical cyclones or polar lows (Medicanes) are occasionally observed over the Mediterranean Sea. They are usually associated with strong winds and heavy precipitation and thus can have highly destructive effects in densely-populated regions. Only a precise forecasting of such systems could mitigate these effects. In this study, the role of an approaching upper-level Potential Vorticity (PV) maximum close to the vicinity of a Medicane which appeared early in the morning of 26 September 2006 over the Ionian Sea and moved north-eastwards affecting Apulia, is evaluated using the anelastic non-hydrostatic model Méso-NH initialized with forecasts from ARPEGE, the French operational forecasting system. To this end, in a first step, high resolution PV fields have been determined using a semi-Lagrangian advection model, MIMOSA (Modelisation Isentrope du transport Meso-echelle de l'Ozone Stratospherique par Advection). MIMOSA PV fields at and around 320 K for 25 September 2006 at 1800 UTC clearly show a stratospheric intrusion under the form of a filament crossing UK, western Europe and the Tyrrhenian Sea. MIMOSA fields show a number of details that do not appear in ECMWF analysed PV fields, and in particular an area of high PV values just west of Italy over the Tyrrhenian Sea. While the overall structure of the filament is well described by ARPEGE analysis, the high PV values in the Tyrrhenian Sea close to the coast of Italy are missing. In order to take into account these differences, ARPEGE upper-level fields have been corrected after a PV inversion guided by MIMOSA fields. Modifications of PV in ARPEGE lead to a deepest system and improved rain fields (both in location and intensity), when evaluated against ground-based observations. In a second step, Meso-NH simulations coupled with corrected and non-corrected ARPEGE forecasts have been performed. The impact of the corrections on the intensity, the trajectory and the associated precipitation has been evaluated using in situ and satellite observations, in the latter case through a model to satellite approach. When the PV corrections are applied, the track of the simulated Medicane is closer to the observed one. The deepening of the low is also better reproduced, even if it is over-estimated (982 hPa instead of 986 hPa), as well as the precipitation. This study confirms the role of fine-scale upper level structures for short range forecasting of sub-synoptic vortices over the Mediterranean Sea. It also suggests that ensemble prediction models should include perturbations related to upper-level coherent structures.

Evaluation of the new EMAC-SWIFT chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheffler, Janice; Langematz, Ulrike; Wohltmann, Ingo; Rex, Markus

2016-04-01

It is well known that the representation of atmospheric ozone chemistry in weather and climate models is essential for a realistic simulation of the atmospheric state. Including atmospheric ozone chemistry into climate simulations is usually done by prescribing a climatological ozone field, by including a fast linear ozone scheme into the model or by using a climate model with complex interactive chemistry. While prescribed climatological ozone fields are often not aligned with the modelled dynamics, a linear ozone scheme may not be applicable for a wide range of climatological conditions. Although interactive chemistry provides a realistic representation of atmospheric chemistry such model simulations are computationally very expensive and hence not suitable for ensemble simulations or simulations with multiple climate change scenarios. A new approach to represent atmospheric chemistry in climate models which can cope with non-linearities in ozone chemistry and is applicable to a wide range of climatic states is the Semi-empirical Weighted Iterative Fit Technique (SWIFT) that is driven by reanalysis data and has been validated against observational satellite data and runs of a full Chemistry and Transport Model. SWIFT has recently been implemented into the ECHAM/MESSy (EMAC) chemistry climate model that uses a modular approach to climate modelling where individual model components can be switched on and off. Here, we show first results of EMAC-SWIFT simulations and validate these against EMAC simulations using the complex interactive chemistry scheme MECCA, and against observations.

Understanding the Laminar Distribution of Tropospheric Ozone from Ground-Based, Airborne, Spaceborne, and Modeling Perspectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, Mike; Johnson, Matthew S.; Huang, Guanyu; Kuang, Shi; Wang, Lihua; Chance, Kelly; Liu, Xiong

2016-01-01

Laminar ozone structure is a ubiquitous feature of tropospheric-ozone distributions resulting from dynamic and chemical atmospheric processes. Understanding the characteristics of these ozone laminae and the mechanisms responsible for producing them is important to outline the transport pathways of trace gases and to quantify the impact of different sources on tropospheric background ozone. In this study, we present a new method to detect ozone laminae to understand their climatological characteristics of occurrence frequency in terms of thickness and altitude. We employ both ground-based and airborne ozone lidar measurements and other synergistic observations and modeling to investigate the sources and mechanisms such as biomass burning transport, stratospheric intrusion, lightning-generated NOx, and nocturnal low-level jets that are responsible for depleted or enhanced tropospheric ozone layers. Spaceborne (e.g., OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), TROPOMI (Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument), TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution)) measurements of these laminae will observe greater horizontal extent and lower vertical resolution than balloon-borne or lidar measurements will quantify. Using integrated ground-based, airborne, and spaceborne observations in a modeling framework affords insight into how to gain knowledge of both the vertical and horizontal evolution of these ubiquitous ozone laminae.

Vertical distribution and sources of tropospheric ozone over South China in spring 2004: Ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Liu, H.; Crawford, J. H.; Considine, D. B.; Chan, C.; Scientific Team Of Tapto

2010-12-01

The Transport of Air Pollutant and Tropospheric Ozone over China (TAPTO-China) science initiative is a two-year (TAPTO 2004 and 2005) field measurement campaign to help improve our understanding of the physical and chemical processes that control the tropospheric ozone budget over the Chinese subcontinent (including the Asian Pacific rim) and its surrounding SE Asia. In this paper, we use two state-of-the-art 3-D global chemical transport models (GEOS-Chem and Global Modeling Initiative or GMI) to examine the characteristics of vertical distribution and quantify the sources of tropospheric ozone by analysis of TAPTO in-situ ozonesonde data obtained at five stations in South China during spring (April and May) 2004: Lin’an (30.30N, 119.75E), Tengchong (25.01N, 98.30E), Taipei (25.0N, 121.3E), Hong Kong (22.21N, 114.30E) and Sanya (18.21N, 110.31E). The observed tropospheric ozone concentrations show strong spatial and temporal variability, which is largely captured by the models. The models simulate well the observed vertical gradients of tropospheric ozone at higher latitudes but are too low at lower latitudes. Model tagged ozone simulations suggest that stratosphere has a large impact on the upper and middle troposphere (UT/MT) at Lin’an and Tengchong. Continental SE Asian biomass burning emissions are maximum in March but still contribute significantly to the photochemical production of tropopheric ozone in South China in early April. Asian anthropogenic emissions are the major contribution to lower tropospheric ozone at all stations. On the other hand, there are episodes of influence from European/North American anthropogenic emissions. For example, model tagged ozone simulations show that over Lin’an in April 2004, stratosphere contributes 20% (13 ppbv) at 5 km, Asian boundary layer contributes 70% (46 ppbv) to ozone in the boundary layer, European boundary layer contributes 5% (3-4 ppbv) at 1.2 km, and North American boundary layer contributes 4.5% (3 ppbv) at 1.2 km. Lastly, our analysis suggests that lightning NOx emissions have substantial impact on the UT/MT ozone over South China. We argue that model underestimate of ozone concentrations, especially at lower latitudes, is likely due to too low lightning NOx emissions.

Artificial neural network with backpropagation learning to predict mean monthly total ozone in Arosa, Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Bandyopadhyay, Goutami

2007-01-01

Present study deals with the mean monthly total ozone time series over Arosa, Switzerland. The study period is 1932-1971. First of all, the total ozone time series has been identified as a complex system and then Artificial Neural Networks models in the form of Multilayer Perceptron with back propagation learning have been developed. The models are Single-hidden-layer and Two-hidden-layer Perceptrons with sigmoid activation function. After sequential learning with learning rate 0.9 the peak total ozone period (February-May) concentrations of mean monthly total ozone have been predicted by the two neural net models. After training and validation, both of the models are found skillful. But, Two-hidden-layer Perceptron is found to be more adroit in predicting the mean monthly total ozone concentrations over the aforesaid period.

Evolution of the Antarctic polar vortex in spring: Response of a GCM to a prescribed Antarctic ozone hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, B. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

1988-01-01

The possible effect of the Antartic ozone hole on the evolution of the polar vortex during late winter and spring using a general circulation model (GCM) is examined. The GCM is a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model whose domain extends from the surface to the mesosphere and is similar to that described on Boville and Randel (1986). Ozone is not a predicted variable in the model. A zonally averaged ozone distribution is specified as a function of latitude, pressure and month for the radiation parameterization. Rather that explicitly address reasons for the formation of the ozone hole, researchers postulate its existence and ask what effect it has on the subsequent evolution of the vortex. The evolution of the model when an ozone hole is imposed is then discussed.

On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A

2017-04-28

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.

The predicted impact of VOCs from Marijuana cultivation operations on ozone concentrations in great Denver, CO.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C. T.; Vizuete, W.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Ashworth, K.

2016-12-01

Colorado is the first the marijuana legal states in the United States since 2014. As a result, thousands of legal Marijuana cultivation operations are at great Denver area now. Those Marijuana cultivation operations could be the potential to release a lot of biogenic VOCs, such as monoterpene(C10H16), alpha-pinene, and D-limonene. Those alkene species could rapidly increase the peroxy radicals and chemical reactions in the atmosphere, especially in the urban area which belong to VOC-limited ozone regime. These emissions will increase the ozone in Denver city, where is ozone non-attainment area. Some previous research explained the marijuana smoke and indoor air quality (Martyny, Serrano, Schaeffer, & Van Dyke, 2013) and the smell of marijuana chemical compounds(Rice & Koziel, 2015). However, there have been no studies discuss on identifying and assessing emission rate from marijuana and how those species impact on atmospheric chemistry and ozone concentration, and the marijuana emissions have been not considered in the national emission inventory, either. This research will use air quality model to identify the possibility of ozone impact by marijuana cultivation emission. The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions, CAMx, are applied for this research to identify the impact of ozone concentration. This model is government regulatory model based on the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS), which developed by UNC-Chapel Hill and ENVIRON in 2012. This model is used for evaluation and regulate the ozone impact in ozone non-attainment area, Denver city. The details of the 3SAQS model setup and protocol can be found in the 3SAQS report(UNC-IE, 2013). For the marijuana emission study scenarios, we assumed the monoterpene (C10H16) is the only emission species in air quality model and identify the ozone change in the model by the different quantity of emission rate from marijuana cultivation operations.

Impact of Enhanced Ozone Deposition and Halogen Chemistry on Tropospheric Ozone over the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Sarwar, Golam; Gantt, Brett; Schwede, Donna; Foley, Kristen; Mathur, Rohit; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso

2015-08-04

Fate of ozone in marine environments has been receiving increased attention due to the tightening of ambient air quality standards. The role of deposition and halogen chemistry is examined through incorporation of an enhanced ozone deposition algorithm and inclusion of halogen chemistry in a comprehensive atmospheric modeling system. The enhanced ozone deposition treatment accounts for the interaction of iodide in seawater with ozone and increases deposition velocities by 1 order of magnitude. Halogen chemistry includes detailed chemical reactions of organic and inorganic bromine and iodine species. Two different simulations are completed with the halogen chemistry: without and with photochemical reactions of higher iodine oxides. Enhanced deposition reduces mean summer-time surface ozone by ∼3% over marine regions in the Northern Hemisphere. Halogen chemistry without the photochemical reactions of higher iodine oxides reduces surface ozone by ∼15% whereas simulations with the photochemical reactions of higher iodine oxides indicate ozone reductions of ∼48%. The model without these processes overpredicts ozone compared to observations whereas the inclusion of these processes improves predictions. The inclusion of photochemical reactions for higher iodine oxides leads to ozone predictions that are lower than observations, underscoring the need for further refinement of the halogen emissions and chemistry scheme in the model.

The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Finley, Cathy

2014-04-30

This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements inmore » wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the individual wind plant and at the system-wide aggregate level over the one year study period showed that the research weather model-based power forecasts (all types) had lower overall error rates than the current operational weather model-based power forecasts, both at the individual wind plant level and at the system aggregate level. The bulk error statistics of the various model-based power forecasts were also calculated by season and model runtime/forecast hour as power system operations are more sensitive to wind energy forecast errors during certain times of year and certain times of day. The results showed that there were significant differences in seasonal forecast errors between the various model-based power forecasts. The results from the analysis of the various wind power forecast errors by model runtime and forecast hour showed that the forecast errors were largest during the times of day that have increased significance to power system operators (the overnight hours and the morning/evening boundary layer transition periods), but the research weather model-based power forecasts showed improvement over the operational weather model-based power forecasts at these times.« less

Evaluation of statistical models for forecast errors from the HBV model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjørn; Renard, Benjamin; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

2010-04-01

SummaryThree statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow into the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to the agreement between (i) the forecast distribution and the observations and (ii) median values of the forecast distribution and the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on weather classes. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the third model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before conditioning the mean error values on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: we wanted (a) the forecast distribution to be reliable; (b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; (c) the median values of the forecast distribution to be close to the observed values. Models 1 and 2 gave almost identical results. The median values improved the forecast with Nash-Sutcliffe R eff increasing from 0.77 for the original forecast to 0.87 for the corrected forecasts. Models 1 and 2 over-estimated the forecast intervals but gave the narrowest intervals. Their main drawback was that the distributions are less reliable than Model 3. For Model 3 the median values did not fit well since the auto-correlation was not accounted for. Since Model 3 did not benefit from the potential variance reduction that lies in bias estimation and removal it gave on average wider forecasts intervals than the two other models. At the same time Model 3 on average slightly under-estimated the forecast intervals, probably explained by the use of average measures to evaluate the fit.

Photochemical modeling and analysis of meteorological parameters during ozone episodes in Kaohsiung, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, K. S.; Ho, Y. T.; Lai, C. H.; Chou, Youn-Min

The events of high ozone concentrations and meteorological conditions covering the Kaohsiung metropolitan area were investigated based on data analysis and model simulation. A photochemical grid model was employed to analyze two ozone episodes in autumn (2000) and winter (2001) seasons, each covering three consecutive days (or 72 h) in the Kaohsiung City. The potential influence of the initial and boundary conditions on model performance was assessed. Model performance can be improved by separately considering the daytime and nighttime ozone concentrations on the lateral boundary conditions of the model domain. The sensitivity analyses of ozone concentrations to the emission reductions in volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) show a VOC-sensitive regime for emission reductions to lower than 30-40% VOC and 30-50% NO x and a NO x-sensitive regime for larger percentage reductions. Meteorological parameters show that warm temperature, sufficient sunlight, low wind, and high surface pressure are distinct parameters that tend to trigger ozone episodes in polluted urban areas, like Kaohsiung.

Integrating Polar-Orbiting Products into the Forecast Routine for Explosive Cyclogenesis and Extratropical Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folmer, M. J.; Berndt, E.; Malloy, K.; Mazur, K.; Sienkiewicz, J. M.; Phillips, J.; Goldberg, M.

2017-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) was added to the Satellite Proving Ground for Marine, Precipitation, and Satellite Analysis in late 2012, just in time to introduce forecasters to the very high-resolution imagery available from the Suomi-National Polar Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument when observing and forecasting Hurricane Sandy (2012). Since that time, more polar products have been introduced to the forecast routines at the National Weather Service (NWS) Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), Weather Prediction Center (WPC), Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). These new data sets have led to research projects at the OPC and TAFB that have specifically been looking into the early identification of stratospheric intrusions that lead to explosive cyclogenesis or extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Currently NOAA Unique CrIS/ATMS Processing System (NUCAPS) temperature and moisture soundings are available in AWIPS-II as a point-based display. Traditionally soundings are used to anticipate and forecast severe convection, however unique and valuable information can be gained from soundings for other forecasting applications, such as extratropical transition, especially in data sparse regions. Additional research has been conducted to look at how JPSS CrIS/ATMS NUCAPS soundings might help forecasters identify the pre-extratropical transition or pre-explosive cyclogenesis environments, leading to earlier diagnosis and better public advisories. CrIS/ATMS NUCAPS soundings, IASI and NUCAPS ozone products, NOAA G-IV GPS dropwindsondes, the Air Mass RGB, and single water vapor channels have been analyzed to look for the precursors to these high impact events. This presentation seeks to show some early analysis and potential uses of the polar-orbiting datasets to compliment the geostationary imagery and therefore lead to earlier identification and possible warnings.

JPSS Products, Applications and Training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres, J. R.; Connell, B. H.; Miller, S. D.

2017-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is a new generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system that will monitor the weather and environment around the globe. JPSS will provide technological and scientific improvements in environmental monitoring via high resolution satellite imagery and derived products that stand to improve weather forecasting capabilities for National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and complement operational Geostationary satellites. JPSS will consist of four satellites, JPSS-1 through JPSS-4, where JPSS-1 is due to launch in Fall 2017. A predecessor, prototype and operational risk-reduction for JPSS is the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite, launched on 28 October 2011. The following instruments on-board S-NPP will also be hosted on JPSS-1: Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). JPSS-1 instruments will provide satellite imagery, products and applications to users. The applications include detecting water and ice clouds, snow, sea surface temperatures, fog, fire, severe weather, vegetation health, aerosols, and sensing reflected lunar and emitted visible-wavelength light during the nighttime via the Day/Night Band (DNB) sensor included on VIIRS. Currently, there are only a few polar products that are operational for forecasters, however, more products will become available in the near future via Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System-II (AWIPS-II)-a forecasting analysis software package that forecasters can use to analyze meteorological data. To complement the polar products an wealth of training materials are currently in development. Denoted as the Satellite Foundational Course for JPSS (SatFC-J), this training will benefit NWS forecasters to utilize satellite data in their forecasts and daily operations as they discover their operational value in the NWS forecast process. As JPSS-1 launch nears, training materials will be produced in the form of modules, videos, quick guides, fact sheets, and hands-on exercises.

Human Health and Economic Impacts of Ozone Reductions by Income Group.

PubMed

Saari, Rebecca K; Thompson, Tammy M; Selin, Noelle E

2017-02-21

Low-income households may be disproportionately affected by ozone pollution and ozone policy. We quantify how three factors affect the relative benefits of ozone policies with household income: (1) unequal ozone reductions; (2) policy delay; and (3) economic valuation methods. We model ozone concentrations under baseline and policy conditions across the full continental United States to estimate the distribution of ozone-related health impacts across nine income groups. We enhance an economic model to include these impacts across household income categories, and present its first application to evaluate the benefits of ozone reductions for low-income households. We find that mortality incidence rates decrease with increasing income. Modeled ozone levels yield a median of 11 deaths per 100 000 people in 2005. Proposed policy reduces these rates by 13%. Ozone reductions are highest among low-income households, which increases their relative welfare gains by up to 4% and decreases them for the rich by up to 8%. The median value of reductions in 2015 is either $30 billion (in 2006 U.S. dollars) or $1 billion if reduced mortality risks are valued with willingness-to-pay or as income from increased life expectancy. Ozone reductions were relatively twice as beneficial for the lowest- compared to the highest-income households. The valuation approach affected benefits more than a policy delay or differential ozone reductions with income.

Estimation of ozone dry deposition over Europe for the period 2071-2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komjáthy, Eszter; Gelybó, Györgyi; László Lagzi, István.; Mészáros, Róbert

2010-05-01

Ozone in the lower troposphere is a phytotoxic air pollutant which can cause injury to plant tissues, causing reduction in plant growth and productivity. In the last decades, several investigations have been carried out for the purpose to estimate ozone load over different surface types. At the same time, the changes of atmospheric variables as well as surface/vegetation parameters due to the global climate change could also strongly modify both temporal and spatial variations of ozone load over Europe. In this study, the possible effects of climate change on ozone deposition are analyzed. Using a sophisticated deposition model, ozone deposition was estimated on a regular grid over Europe for the period 2071-2100. Our aim is to determine the uncertainties and the possible degree of change in ozone deposition velocity as an important predictor of total ozone load using climate data from multiple climate models and runs. For these model calculations, results of the PRUDENCE (Predicting of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) climate prediction project were used. As a first step, seasonal variations of ozone deposition over different vegetation types in case of different climate scenarios are presented in this study. Besides model calculations, in the frame of a sensitivity analyses, the effects of surface/vegetation parameters (e.g. leaf area index or stomatal resistance) on ozone deposition under a modified climate regime have also been analyzed.

An evaluation of the regional acid deposition model surface module for ozone uptake at three sites in the San Joaquin Valley of California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massman, W. J.; Pederson, J.; Delany, A.; Grantz, D.; Hertog, G. Den; Neumann, H. H.; Oncley, S. P.; Pearson, R., Jr.; Shaw, R. H.

1994-01-01

Plants and soils act as major sinks for the destruction of tropospheric ozone, especially during daylight hours when plant stomata open and are thought to provide the dominant pathway for the uptake of ozone. The present study, part of the California Ozone Deposition Experiment, compares predictions of the regional acid deposition model ozone surface conductance module with surface conductance data derived from eddy covariance measurements of ozone flux taken at a grape, a cotton, and a grassland site in the San Joaquin Valley of California during the summer of 1991. Results indicate that the model (which was developed to provide long-term large-area estimates for the eastern United States) significantly overpredicts the surface conductance at all times of the day for at least two important types of plant cover of the San Joaquin Valley and that it incorrectly partitions the ozone flux between transpiring and nontranspiring components of the surface at the third site. Consequently, the model either overpredicts or inaccurately represents the observed deposition velocities. Other results indicate that the presence of dew does not reduce the rate of ozone deposition, contradicting to model assumptions, and that model assumptions involving the dependency of stomata upon environmental temperature are unnecessary. The effects of measurement errors and biases, arising from the presence of the roughness sublayer and possible photochemical reactions, are also discussed. A simpler model for ozone surface deposition (at least for the San Joaquin Valley) is proposed and evaluated.

Model development for naphthenic acids ozonation process.

PubMed

Al Jibouri, Ali Kamel H; Wu, Jiangning

2015-02-01

Naphthenic acids (NAs) are toxic constituents of oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) which is generated during the extraction of bitumen from oil sands. NAs consist mainly of carboxylic acids which are generally biorefractory. For the treatment of OSPW, ozonation is a very beneficial method. It can significantly reduce the concentration of NAs and it can also convert NAs from biorefractory to biodegradable. In this study, a factorial design (2(4)) was used for the ozonation of OSPW to study the influences of the operating parameters (ozone concentration, oxygen/ozone flow rate, pH, and mixing) on the removal of a model NAs in a semi-batch reactor. It was found that ozone concentration had the most significant effect on the NAs concentration compared to other parameters. An empirical model was developed to correlate the concentration of NAs with ozone concentration, oxygen/ozone flow rate, and pH. In addition, a theoretical analysis was conducted to gain the insight into the relationship between the removal of NAs and the operating parameters.

Ozone-surface interactions: Investigations of mechanisms, kinetics, mass transport, and implications for indoor air quality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, Glenn Charles

1999-12-01

In this dissertation, results are presented of laboratory investigations and mathematical modeling efforts designed to better understand the interactions of ozone with surfaces. In the laboratory, carpet and duct materials were exposed to ozone and measured ozone uptake kinetics and the ozone induced emissions of volatile organic compounds. To understand the results of the experiments, mathematical methods were developed to describe dynamic indoor aldehyde concentrations, mass transport of reactive species to smooth surfaces, the equivalent reaction probability of whole carpet due to the surface reactivity of fibers and carpet backing, and ozone aging of surfaces. Carpets, separated carpet fibers, andmore » separated carpet backing all tended to release aldehydes when exposed to ozone. Secondary emissions were mostly n-nonanal and several other smaller aldehydes. The pattern of emissions suggested that vegetable oils may be precursors for these oxidized emissions. Several possible precursors and experiments in which linseed and tung oils were tested for their secondary emission potential were discussed. Dynamic emission rates of 2-nonenal from a residential carpet may indicate that intermediate species in the oxidation of conjugated olefins can significantly delay aldehyde emissions and act as reservoir for these compounds. The ozone induced emission rate of 2-nonenal, a very odorous compound, can result in odorous indoor concentrations for several years. Surface ozone reactivity is a key parameter in determining the flux of ozone to a surface, is parameterized by the reaction probability, which is simply the probability that an ozone molecule will be irreversibly consumed when it strikes a surface. In laboratory studies of two residential and two commercial carpets, the ozone reaction probability for carpet fibers, carpet backing and the equivalent reaction probability for whole carpet were determined. Typically reaction probability values for these materials were 10 -7, 10 -5, and 10 -5 respectively. To understand how internal surface area influences the equivalent reaction probability of whole carpet, a model of ozone diffusion into and reaction with internal carpet components was developed. This was then used to predict apparent reaction probabilities for carpet. He combines this with a modified model of turbulent mass transfer developed by Liu, et al. to predict deposition rates and indoor ozone concentrations. The model predicts that carpet should have an equivalent reaction probability of about 10 -5, matching laboratory measurements of the reaction probability. For both carpet and duct materials, surfaces become progressively quenched (aging), losing the ability to react or otherwise take up ozone. He evaluated the functional form of aging and find that the reaction probability follows a power function with respect to the cumulative uptake of ozone. To understand ozone aging of surfaces, he developed several mathematical descriptions of aging based on two different mechanisms. The observed functional form of aging is mimicked by a model which describes ozone diffusion with internal reaction in a solid. He shows that the fleecy nature of carpet materials in combination with the model of ozone diffusion below a fiber surface and internal reaction may explain the functional form and the magnitude of power function parameters observed due to ozone interactions with carpet. The ozone induced aldehyde emissions, measured from duct materials, were combined with an indoor air quality model to show that concentrations of aldehydes indoors may approach odorous levels. He shows that ducts are unlikely to be a significant sink for ozone due to the low reaction probability in combination with the short residence time of air in ducts.« less

Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Barthélemy, A.; Chevallier, M.; Cullather, R.; Fučkar, N.; Massonnet, F.; Posey, P.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Ardilouze, C.; Bitz, C. M.; Vernieres, G.; Wallcraft, A.; Wang, M.

2017-08-01

Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

A revised linear ozone photochemistry parameterization for use in transport and general circulation models: multi-annual simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cariolle, D.; Teyssèdre, H.

2007-05-01

This article describes the validation of a linear parameterization of the ozone photochemistry for use in upper tropospheric and stratospheric studies. The present work extends a previously developed scheme by improving the 2-D model used to derive the coefficients of the parameterization. The chemical reaction rates are updated from a compilation that includes recent laboratory work. Furthermore, the polar ozone destruction due to heterogeneous reactions at the surface of the polar stratospheric clouds is taken into account as a function of the stratospheric temperature and the total chlorine content. Two versions of the parameterization are tested. The first one only requires the solution of a continuity equation for the time evolution of the ozone mixing ratio, the second one uses one additional equation for a cold tracer. The parameterization has been introduced into the chemical transport model MOCAGE. The model is integrated with wind and temperature fields from the ECMWF operational analyses over the period 2000-2004. Overall, the results from the two versions show a very good agreement between the modelled ozone distribution and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data and the "in-situ" vertical soundings. During the course of the integration the model does not show any drift and the biases are generally small, of the order of 10%. The model also reproduces fairly well the polar ozone variability, notably the formation of "ozone holes" in the Southern Hemisphere with amplitudes and a seasonal evolution that follow the dynamics and time evolution of the polar vortex. The introduction of the cold tracer further improves the model simulation by allowing additional ozone destruction inside air masses exported from the high to the mid-latitudes, and by maintaining low ozone content inside the polar vortex of the Southern Hemisphere over longer periods in spring time. It is concluded that for the study of climate scenarios or the assimilation of ozone data, the present parameterization gives a valuable alternative to the introduction of detailed and computationally costly chemical schemes into general circulation models.

NODA for EPA's Updated Ozone Transport Modeling

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Find EPA's NODA for the Updated Ozone Transport Modeling Data for the 2008 Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) along with the ExitExtension of Public Comment Period on CSAPR for the 2008 NAAQS.

Improving assessments of tropospheric ozone injury to Mediterranean montane conifer forests in California (USA) and Catalonia (Spain) with GIS models related to plant water relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kefauver, Shawn C.; Peñuelas, Josep; Ustin, Susan L.

2012-12-01

The impacts of tropospheric ozone on conifer health in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, and the Pyrenees of Catalonia, Spain, were measured using field assessments and GIS variables of landscape gradients related to plant water relations, stomatal conductance and hence to ozone uptake. Measurements related to ozone injury included visible chlorotic mottling, needle retention, needle length, and crown depth, which together compose the Ozone Injury Index (OII). The OII values observed in Catalonia were similar to those in California, but OII alone correlated poorly to ambient ozone in all sites. Combining ambient ozone with GIS variables related to landscape variability of plant hydrological status, derived from stepwise regressions, produced models with R2 = 0.35, p = 0.016 in Catalonia, R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001 in Yosemite and R2 = 0.33, p = 0.007 in Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks in California. Individual OII components in Catalonia were modeled with improved success compared to the original full OII, in particular visible chlorotic mottling (R2 = 0.60, p < 0.001). The results show that ozone is negatively impacting forest health in California and Catalonia and also that modeling ozone injury improves by including GIS variables related to plant water relations.

Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Susan; Ivy, Diane; Gupta, Mukund; Bandoro, Justin; Santer, Benjamin; Fu, Qiang; Lin, Pu; Garcia, Rolando R.; Kinnison, Doug; Mills, Michael

2017-08-01

Observed and modeled patterns of lower stratospheric seasonal trends in Antarctic ozone and temperature in the late 20th (1979-2000) and the early 21st (2000-2014) centuries are compared. Patterns of pre-2000 observed Antarctic ozone decreases and stratospheric cooling as a function of month and pressure are followed by opposite-signed (i.e., "mirrored") patterns of ozone increases and warming post-2000. An interactive chemistry-climate model forced by changes in anthropogenic ozone depleting substances produces broadly similar mirrored features. Statistical analysis of unforced model simulations (from long-term model control simulations of a few centuries up to 1000 years) suggests that internal and solar natural variability alone is unable to account for the pattern of observed ozone trend mirroring, implying that forcing is the dominant driver of this behavior. Radiative calculations indicate that ozone increases have contributed to Antarctic warming of the lower stratosphere over 2000-2014, but dynamical changes that are likely due to internal variability over this relatively short period also appear to be important. Overall, the results support the recent finding that the healing of the Antarctic ozone hole is underway and that coupling between dynamics, chemistry, and radiation is important for a full understanding of the causes of observed stratospheric temperature and ozone changes.

Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone: However, models will tend to overpredict O3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

1990-10-01

Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. We illustrate basic processes with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale. In the first, cook-then-mix, simulation the nitrogen oxides and other burning-produced pollutants are confined to a persistently subsident fair weather boundary layer for several days, and the resultant ozone is found to have only a transient influence on the whole column of tropospheric ozone. In the second, mix-then-cook, simulation the effect of typical cumulonimbus convection, which vents an actively polluted boundary layer, is to make a persistent increase in the tropical ozone column. Such a broadly increased ozone column is observed over the the populated "continental" portion of the tropics. A third simulation averages all emission, transport, and deposition parameters, representing one column in a global tropospheric model that does not simulate individual weather events. This "oversmoothing" simulation produces 60% more ozone than observed or otherwise modeled. Qualitatively similar overprediction is suggested for all models which average significantly in time or space, as all need do. Clearly, simulating these O3 levels will depend sensitively on knowledge of the timing of emissions and transport.

Quantifying model uncertainty in seasonal Arctic sea-ice forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Barthélemy, Antoine; Chevallier, Matthieu; Cullather, Richard; Fučkar, Neven; Massonnet, François; Posey, Pamela; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhang, Jinlun; Ardilouze, Constantin; Bitz, Cecilia; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wallcraft, Alan; Wang, Muyin

2017-04-01

Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or post-processing techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

2015-12-01

Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

Long-term changes in ozone mini-hole event frequency over the Northern Hemisphere derived from ground-based measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzycin, Janusz W.

2002-10-01

Decadal changes of ozone mini-hole event appearance over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are examined based on daily total ozone data from seven stations having long records (four decades or more) of ozone observations. The various threshold methods for accepting and rejecting the ozone minima as mini-holes are examined. Mini-hole event activity is seen to be rather stable when averaged over a decadal time scale if the mini-holes are selected as large negative departures (exceeding 20%) relative to the moving long-term total ozone reference. The results are compared with a previous ozone mini-hole climatology derived from satellite data (TOMS measurements on board the Nimbus-7 satellite for the period 1978-93). A nonlinear statistical model (MARS), which takes into account various total ozone dynamical proxies (from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis), is used to study dynamical factors responsible for the ozone extremes over Arosa in the period 1950-99. The model explains as much as 95% of the total variance of the ozone extremes. The model-observation differences averaged over the decadal intervals are rather smooth throughout the whole period analysed. It is suggested that the short-term dynamical processes controlling the appearance of ozone extremes influenced the ozone field in a similar way before and after the onset of abrupt ozone depletion in the early 1980s. The analysis of the ozone profile and the tropopause pressure (from the ozonesondings over Hohenpeissenberg, 1966-99) during mini-hole events shows 60% ozone reduction in the lower stratosphere and an approximately 50 hPa upward shift of the thermal tropopause there.

Estimating the Tropospheric Ozone Distribution by the Assimilation of Satellite Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayashi, Hiroo; Stajner, Ivanka; Winslow, Nathan; Jones, Dylan B. A.; Pawson, Steven; Thompson, Anne M.

2003-01-01

Tropospheric ozone is important to the environment, because it acts as a strong oxidant to control the concentrations of many reduced gases (methane, carbon monoxide, ... ), its radiative forcing plays a significant role in the greenhouse effect, and direct contact with ozone is harmful to human health. Tropospheric ozone, whose main sources are intrusion from the stratosphere and chemical production from source gases associated with urban pollution or biomass burning, varies on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Its transport and chemistry can be influenced by weather, seasonal, or multiannual variability. Despite the importance of tropospheric ozone, it contributes only about 10% of the total ozone loading in the atmosphere. Consequently, satellite instruments lose sensitivity below the stratospheric ozone peak, and provide little information about middle and lower tropospheric ozone. This talk will discuss recent modifications made to the satellite ozone data assimilation system at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) in order to provide better tropospheric ozone columns and profiles. We use a version of the system that assimilates only the data from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument. The quality of the assimilated ozone in the tropical troposphere is evaluated by comparison with independent observations obtained from the Southern Hemispheric Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network. It is shown that the quality of ozone fields is sensitive to the winds used in the transport model. Increasing the vertical resolution of the model also has a beneficial impact. The assimilated ozone in the lower troposphere was substantially improved by inclusion of tropospheric ozone production, loss, and dry deposition rates from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. The mechanisms behind these results will be examined and the implications for our understanding of tropospheric ozone will be discussed.

Prediction of ozone concentration in tropospheric levels using artificial neural networks and support vector machine at Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, A. S.; Paredes, M. L. L.; de Oliveira, G. C. G.; Corrêa, S. M.

2014-12-01

It is well known that air quality is a complex function of emissions, meteorology and topography, and statistical tools provide a sound framework for relating these variables. The observed data were contents of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen monoxide (NO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), scalar wind speed (SWS), global solar radiation (GSR), temperature (TEM), moisture content in the air (HUM), collected by a mobile automatic monitoring station at Rio de Janeiro City in two places of the metropolitan area during 2011 and 2012. The aims of this study were: (1) to analyze the behavior of the variables, using the method of PCA for exploratory data analysis; (2) to propose forecasts of O3 levels from primary pollutants and meteorological factors, using nonlinear regression methods like ANN and SVM, from primary pollutants and meteorological factors. The PCA technique showed that for first dataset, variables NO, NOx and SWS have a greater impact on the concentration of O3 and the other data set had the TEM and GSR as the most influential variables. The obtained results from the nonlinear regression techniques ANN and SVM were remarkably closely and acceptable to one dataset presenting coefficient of determination for validation respectively 0.9122 and 0.9152, and root mean square error of 7.66 and 7.85, respectively. For these datasets, the PCA, SVM and ANN had demonstrated their robustness as useful tools for evaluation, and forecast scenarios for air quality.

Ozone measurement systems improvements studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. W.; Guard, K.; Holland, A. C.; Spurling, J. F.

1974-01-01

Results are summarized of an initial study of techniques for measuring atmospheric ozone, carried out as the first phase of a program to improve ozone measurement techniques. The study concentrated on two measurement systems, the electro chemical cell (ECC) ozonesonde and the Dobson ozone spectrophotometer, and consisted of two tasks. The first task consisted of error modeling and system error analysis of the two measurement systems. Under the second task a Monte-Carlo model of the Dobson ozone measurement technique was developed and programmed for computer operation.

Modelling the Ozone-Based Treatments for Inactivation of Microorganisms

PubMed Central

Brodowska, Agnieszka Joanna; Nowak, Agnieszka; Kondratiuk-Janyska, Alina; Piątkowski, Marcin; Śmigielski, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

The paper presents the development of a model for ozone treatment in a dynamic bed of different microorganisms (Bacillus subtilis, B. cereus, B. pumilus, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Aspergillus niger, Eupenicillium cinnamopurpureum) on a heterogeneous matrix (juniper berries, cardamom seeds) initially treated with numerous ozone doses during various contact times was studied. Taking into account various microorganism susceptibility to ozone, it was of great importance to develop a sufficiently effective ozone dose to preserve food products using different strains based on the microbial model. For this purpose, we have chosen the Weibull model to describe the survival curves of different microorganisms. Based on the results of microorganism survival modelling after ozone treatment and considering the least susceptible strains to ozone, we selected the critical ones. Among tested strains, those from genus Bacillus were recognized as the most critical strains. In particular, B. subtilis and B. pumilus possessed the highest resistance to ozone treatment because the time needed to achieve the lowest level of its survival was the longest (up to 17.04 min and 16.89 min for B. pumilus reduction on juniper berry and cardamom seed matrix, respectively). Ozone treatment allow inactivate microorganisms to achieving lower survival rates by ozone dose (20.0 g O3/m3 O2, with a flow rate of 0.4 L/min) and contact time (up to 20 min). The results demonstrated that a linear correlation between parameters p and k in Weibull distribution, providing an opportunity to calculate a fitted equation of the process. PMID:28991199

Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma

PubMed Central

Sheffield, Perry E.; Knowlton, Kim; Carr, Jessie L.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2011-01-01

Background The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. Purpose To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. Methods This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. Results In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. Conclusions The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. PMID:21855738

A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

2011-12-01

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

Simulation of ozone formation at different elevations in mountainous area of Hong Kong using WRF-CMAQ model.

PubMed

Wang, N; Guo, H; Jiang, F; Ling, Z H; Wang, T

2015-02-01

Field measurements were simultaneously conducted at a mountain (Mt.) site (Tai Mao Shan, TMS) and an urban site (Tsuen Wan, TW) at the foot of the Mt. TMS in Hong Kong. An interesting event with consecutive high-ozone (O₃) days from 08:00 on 28 Oct. to 23:00 on 03 Nov., 2010 was observed at Mt. TMS, while no such polluted event was found at the foot of the mountain. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models were used to understand this event. Model performance evaluation showed that the simulated meteorological parameters and air pollutants were well in agreement with the observations. The index of agreement (IOA) of temperature, relative humidity, wind direction and wind speed were 0.93, 0.83, 0.46 and 0.60, respectively. The multi-day high O₃ episode at Mt. TMS was also reasonably reproduced (IOA=0.68). Horizontally, the photochemical processes determined the O₃ levels in southwestern Pearl River Delta (PRD) and the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), while in eastern and northern PRD, the O₃ destruction was over the production during the event. Vertically, higher O₃ values at higher levels were found at both Mt. TMS and TW, indicating a vertical O₃ gradient over Hong Kong. With the aid of the process analysis module, we found positive contribution of vertical transport including advection and diffusion to O₃ mixing ratios at the two sites, suggesting that O₃ values at lower locations could be affected by O₃ at higher locations via vertical advection and diffusion over Hong Kong. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An overview of the HIBISCUS campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pommereau, J.-P.; Garnier, A.; Held, G.; Gomes, A. M.; Goutail, F.; Durry, G.; Borchi, F.; Hauchecorne, A.; Montoux, N.; Cocquerez, P.; Letrenne, G.; Vial, F.; Hertzog, A.; Legras, B.; Pisso, I.; Pyle, J. A.; Harris, N. R. P.; Jones, R. L.; Robinson, A. D.; Hansford, G.; Eden, L.; Gardiner, T.; Swann, N.; Knudsen, B.; Larsen, N.; Nielsen, J. K.; Christensen, T.; Cairo, F.; Fierli, F.; Pirre, M.; Marécal, V.; Huret, N.; Rivière, E. D.; Coe, H.; Grosvenor, D.; Edvarsen, K.; di Donfrancesco, G.; Ricaud, P.; Berthelier, J.-J.; Godefroy, M.; Seran, E.; Longo, K.; Freitas, S.

2011-03-01

The EU HIBISCUS project consisted of a series of field campaigns during the intense convective summers in 2001, 2003 and 2004 in the State of São Paulo in Brazil. Its objective was to investigate the impact of deep convection on the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) and the lower stratosphere by providing a new set of observational data on meteorology, tracers of horizontal and vertical transport, water vapour, clouds, and chemistry in the tropical Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere (UT/LS). This was achieved using short duration research balloons to study local phenomena associated with convection over land, and long-duration balloons circumnavigating the globe to study the contrast between land and oceans. Analyses of observations of short-lived tracers, ozone and ice particles show strong episodic local updraughts of cold air across the lapse rate tropopause up to 18 or 19 km (420-440 K) in the lower stratosphere by overshooting towers. The long duration balloon and satellite measurements reveal a contrast between the composition of the lower stratosphere over land and oceanic areas, suggesting significant global impact of such events. The overshoots are shown to be well captured by non-hydrostatic meso-scale Cloud Resolving Models indicating vertical velocities of 50-60 m s-1 at the top of the Neutral Buoyancy Level (NBL) at around 14 km, but, in contrast, are poorly represented by global Chemistry-Transport Models (CTM) forced by Numerical Weather Forecast Models (NWP) underestimating the overshooting process. Finally, the data collected by the HIBISCUS balloons have allowed a thorough evaluation of temperature NWP analyses and reanalyses, as well as satellite ozone, nitrogen oxide, water vapour and bromine oxide measurements in the tropics.

Ozone generation by negative corona discharge: the effect of Joule heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanallah, K.; Pontiga, F.; Fernández-Rueda, A.; Castellanos, A.; Belasri, A.

2008-10-01

Ozone generation in pure oxygen using a wire-to-cylinder corona discharge reactor is experimentally and numerically investigated. Ozone concentration is determined by means of direct UV spectroscopy and the effects of Joule heating and ozone decomposition on the electrodes are analysed for different discharge gaps. The numerical model combines the physical processes in the corona discharge with the chemistry of ozone formation and destruction. The chemical kinetics model and the electrical model are coupled through Poisson's equation, and the current-voltage (CV) characteristic measured in experiments is used as input data to the numerical simulation. The numerical model is able to predict the radial distributions of electrons, ions, atoms and molecules for each applied voltage of the CV characteristic. In particular, the evolution of ozone density inside the discharge cell has been investigated as a function of current intensity and applied voltage.

IASI Satellite Observation and Forecast of Pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clerbaux, C.; Boynard, A.; George, M.; Hadji-Lazaro, J.; Safieddine, S.; Viatte, C.; Clarisse, L.; Pierre-Francois, C.; Hurtmans, D.; van Damme, M.; Wespes, C.; Whitburn, S.

2017-12-01

The IASI family of instruments has been sounding the atmosphere since 2006 onboard the Metop satellite series. Using the radiance data recorded in the thermal infrared spectral range, concentrations for atmospheric pollutants such as carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ammonia (NH3) can be derived. IASI CO and O3 fields are assimilated in regional and global models in order to predict air quality over Europe. Enhanced levels of pollutants are detected in near-real time, and can be followed at city, country and continent levels. This talk will present the findings for an extended time period (2008-2017), and will review the IASI capability to observe exceptional events both at the local and regional scales, as well as seasonal variations due other dynamic patterns (monsoon, ENSO, …). Progresses and current limitations to derive long term trends will also be discussed.

A regional modelling study of the high ozone episode of June 2001 in southern Ontario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brulfert, G.; Galvez, O.; Yang, F.; Sloan, J. J.

High ozone levels were observed in southern Ontario in the summer of 2001, particularly in June, when the observed maximum was 137 ppb at Long Point. Development of effective ozone abatement strategies to prevent such episodes requires acknowledge of the chemistry in the appropriate source regions. Comprehensive high-resolution Eulerian chemical transport models, when used with accurate emissions data and meteorology, can elucidate the atmospheric chemical and physical processes responsible for episodes like these. In this work, the MM5 /SMOKE/CMAQ regional air quality modelling system was used to investigate the chemistry involved in ozone formation during the episode in question and also more generally in the target domain. Some of the important simulations were further developed using Taylor diagrams to explore the ozone background and understand the sensitivity of ozone to NOX and VOC concentrations. Results from an arbitrary reduction of road traffic are discussed, based on NOX and VOC species in the traffic emission inventory. The ozone production rate was extracted from the model and mapped for June 2001 to assist in the identification of the source regions contributing to the ozone episode.

Impact of downward-mixing ozone on surface ozone accumulation in southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Lin, Ching-Ho

2008-04-01

The ozone that initially presents in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer can remain in the nighttime atmosphere and then be carried over to the next morning. Finally, this ozone can be brought to the ground by downward mixing as mixing depth increases during the daytime, thereby increasing surface ozone concentrations. Variation of ozone concentration during each of these periods is investigated in this work. First, ozone concentrations existing in the daily early morning atmosphere at the altitude range of the daily maximum mixing depth (residual ozone concentrations) were measured using tethered ozonesondes on 52 experimental days during 2004-2005 in southern Taiwan. Daily downward-mixing ozone concentrations were calculated by a box model coupling the measured daily residual ozone concentrations and daily mixing depth variations. The ozone concentrations upwind in the previous day's afternoon mixing layer were estimated by the combination of back air trajectory analysis and known previous day's surface ozone distributions. Additionally, the relationship between daily downward-mixing ozone concentration and daily photochemically produced ozone concentration was examined. The latter was calculated by removing the former from daily surface maximum ozone concentration. The measured daily residual ozone concentrations distributed at 12-74 parts per billion (ppb) with an average of 42 +/- 17 ppb are well correlated with the previous upwind ozone concentration (R2 = 0.54-0.65). Approximately 60% of the previous upwind ozone was estimated to be carried over to the next morning and became the observed residual ozone. The daily downward-mixing ozone contributes 48 +/- 18% of the daily surface maximum ozone concentration, indicating that the downward-mixing ozone is as important as daily photochemically produced ozone to daily surface maximum ozone accumulation. The daily downward-mixing ozone is poorly correlated with the daily photochemically produced ozone and contributes significantly to the daily variation of surface maximum ozone concentrations (R2 = 0.19). However, the contribution of downward-mixing ozone to daily ozone variation is not included in most existing statistical models developed for predicting daily ozone variation. Finally, daily surface maximum ozone concentration is positively correlated with daily afternoon mixing depth, attributable to the downward-mixing ozone.

The potential near-source ozone impacts of upstream oil and gas industry emissions.

PubMed

Olaguer, Eduardo P

2012-08-01

Increased drilling in urban areas overlying shale formations and its potential impact on human health through decreased air quality make it important to estimate the contribution of oil and gas activities to photochemical smog. Flares and compressor engines used in natural gas operations, for example, are large sources not only of NOx but also offormaldehyde, a hazardous air pollutant and powerful ozone precursor We used a neighborhood scale (200 m horizontal resolution) three-dimensional (3D) air dispersion model with an appropriate chemical mechanism to simulate ozone formation in the vicinity ofa hypothetical natural gas processing facility, based on accepted estimates of both regular and nonroutine emissions. The model predicts that, under average midday conditions in June, regular emissions mostly associated with compressor engines may increase ambient ozone in the Barnett Shale by more than 3 ppb beginning at about 2 km downwind of the facility, assuming there are no other major sources of ozone precursors. Flare volumes of 100,000 cubic meters per hour ofnatural gas over a period of 2 hr can also add over 3 ppb to peak 1-hr ozone somewhatfurther (>8 km) downwind, once dilution overcomes ozone titration and inhibition by large flare emissions of NOx. The additional peak ozone from the hypothetical flare can briefly exceed 10 ppb about 16 km downwind. The enhancements of ambient ozone predicted by the model are significant, given that ozone control strategy widths are of the order of a few parts per billion. Degrading the horizontal resolution of the model to 1 km spuriously enhances the simulated ozone increases by reducing the effectiveness of ozone inhibition and titration due to artificial plume dilution.

Tropospheric Ozone Changes, Radiative Forcing and Attribution to Emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevenson, D.S.; Young, P.J.; Naik, V.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Shindell, D. T.; Voulgarakis, A.; Skeie, R. B.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Myhre, G.; Berntsen, T. K.;

The modeled latitudinal distribution of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation using observed equatorial winds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gray, L.J.; Ruth, S.

1993-04-15

A simulation of precise years of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is achieved in a two-dimensional model by relaxing the modeled equatorial winds in the lower stratosphere toward radiosonde observations. The model has been run for the period 1971-90. A QBO signal in column ozone is produced in the model that agrees reasonably well with observational data from the BUV, TOMS, and SAGE II satellite datasets. The model results confirm previous indications of the importance of the interaction of the QBO with the annual cycle in the determination of the subtropical ozone anomaly. The low-frequency modulation of the subtropical ozone anomalymore » is now particularly clear. The low-frequency modulation of the subtropical ozone anomaly in the model arises as a result of the interaction of the QBO with the annual cycle in the vertical advection by the Hadley circulation. The possibility of a further, similar modulation arising from the interaction of the equatorial wind QBO and the annual cycle in midlatitude eddy activity is discussed, with particular emphasis on the implications for the eddy transfer of ozone to high latitudes and on the ability to predict the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole. A link is proposed between the QBO signal in the severity of the Antarctic ozone hole and the amount of ozone observed in the subtropical/midlatitude springtime maximum in the Southern Hemisphere. On the basis of this relationship, the reliability of the model as a predictor of the severity of the ozone hole is explored. A conclusion of the study is that a reliable predictor of the severity of the ozone hole must take into account the timing of the descent of the equatorial wind QBO at the equator with respect to the annual cycle and that the use, as in previous studies, of a single parameter, such as the sign of the 50-mb equatorial wind, will not be entirely reliable because it cannot do this. 31 refs., 11 figs.« less

Source Attribution of Near-surface Ozone in the Western US: Improved Estimates by TF HTAP2 Multi-model Experiment and Multi-scale Chemical Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, M.; Bowman, K. W.; Carmichael, G. R.; Lee, M.; Park, R.; Henze, D. K.; Chai, T.; Flemming, J.; Lin, M.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Wisthaler, A.; Jaffe, D. A.

2014-12-01

Near-surface ozone in the western US can be sensitive to transported background pollutants from the free troposphere over the eastern Pacific, as well as various local emissions sources. Accurately estimating ozone source contributions in this region has strong policy-relevant significance as the air quality standards tend to go down. Here we improve modeled contributions from local and non-local sources to western US ozone base on the HTAP2 (Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution) multi-model experiment, along with multi-scale chemical data assimilation. We simulate western US air quality using the STEM regional model on a 12 km horizontal resolution grid, during the NASA ARCTAS field campaign period in June 2008. STEM simulations use time-varying boundary conditions downscaled from global GEOS-Chem model simulations. Standard GEOS-Chem simulation overall underpredicted ozone at 1-5 km in the eastern Pacific, resulting in underestimated contributions from the transported background pollutants to surface ozone inland. These negative biases can be reduced by using the output from several global models that support the HTAP2 experiment, which all ran with the HTAP2 harmonized emission inventory and also calculated the contributions from east Asian anthropogenic emissions. We demonstrate that the biases in GEOS-Chem boundary conditions can be more efficiently reduced via assimilating satellite ozone profiles from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument using the three dimensional variational (3D-Var) approach. Base upon these TES-constrained GEOS-Chem boundary conditions, we then update regional nitrogen dioxide and isoprene emissions in STEM through the four dimensional variational (4D-Var) assimilation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) nitrogen dioxide columns and the NASA DC-8 aircraft isoprene measurements. The 4D-Var assimilation spatially redistributed the emissions of nitrogen oxides and isoprene from various US sources, and in the meantime updated the modeled ozone and its US source contributions. Compared with available independent measurements (e.g., ozone observed on the DC-8 aircraft, and at EPA and Mt. Bachelor monitoring stations) during this period, modeled ozone fields after the multi-scale assimilation show overall improvement.

Ozone risk assessment for agricultural crops in Europe: Further development of stomatal flux and flux-response relationships for European wheat and potato

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pleijel, H.; Danielsson, H.; Emberson, L.; Ashmore, M. R.; Mills, G.

Applications of a parameterised Jarvis-type multiplicative stomatal conductance model with data collated from open-top chamber experiments on field grown wheat and potato were used to derive relationships between relative yield and stomatal ozone uptake. The relationships were based on thirteen experiments from four European countries for wheat and seven experiments from four European countries for potato. The parameterisation of the conductance model was based both on an extensive literature review and primary data. Application of the stomatal conductance models to the open-top chamber experiments resulted in improved linear regressions between relative yield and ozone uptake compared to earlier stomatal conductance models, both for wheat ( r2=0.83) and potato ( r2=0.76). The improvement was largest for potato. The relationships with the highest correlation were obtained using a stomatal ozone flux threshold. For both wheat and potato the best performing exposure index was AF st6 (accumulated stomatal flux of ozone above a flux rate threshold of 6 nmol ozone m -2 projected sunlit leaf area, based on hourly values of ozone flux). The results demonstrate that flux-based models are now sufficiently well calibrated to be used with confidence to predict the effects of ozone on yield loss of major arable crops across Europe. Further studies, using innovations in stomatal conductance modelling and plant exposure experimentation, are needed if these models are to be further improved.

Evaluation of ozone hindcasts: optimal data sets to use, and results from simulations with the GMI model for 1990-2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Logan, J. A.; Megretskaia, I.; Liu, J.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Strahan, S. E.; Damon, M.; Steenrod, S. D.

2012-12-01

Simulations of atmospheric composition in the recent past (hindcasts) are a valuable tool for determining the causes of interannual variability (IAV) and trends in tropospheric ozone, including factors such as anthropogenic emissions, biomass burning, stratospheric input, and variability in meteorology. We will review the ozone data sets (balloon, satellite, and surface) that are the most reliable for evaluating hindcasts, and demonstrate their application with the GMI model. The GMI model is driven by the GEOS-5/MERRA reanalysis and includes both stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry. Preliminary analysis of a simulation for 1990-2010 using constant fossil fuel emissions is promising. The model reproduces the recent interannual variability (IAV) in ozone in the lowermost stratosphere seen in MLS and sonde data, as well as the IAV seen in sonde data in the lower stratosphere since 1995, and captures much of the IAV and short-term trends in surface ozone at remote sites, showing the influence of variability in dynamics. There was considerable IAV in ozone in the lowermost stratosphere in the Aura period, but almost none at European alpine sites in winter/spring, when ozone at 150 hPa has been shown to be correlated with that at 700 hPa in earlier years. The model matches the IAV in alpine ozone in Europe in July-September, including the high values in heat-waves, showing the role of variability in meteorology. A focus on IAV in each season is essential. The model matches IAV in MLS in the upper troposphere, TES tropical ozone, and the tropospheric ozone column (OMI/MLS) the best in tSropical regions controlled by ENSO related changes in dynamics. This study, combined with sensitivity simulations with changes to emissions, and simulations with passive tracers (see Abstract by Rodriguez et al. Session A76), lays the foundations for assessment of the mechanisms that have influenced tropospheric ozone in the past two decades.

On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

Heat Waves, Urban Vegetation, and Air Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churkina, G.; Grote, R.; Butler, T. M.

2014-12-01

Fast-track programs to plant millions of trees in cities around the world aim at the reduction of summer temperatures, increase carbon storage, storm water control, provision of space for recreation, as well as poverty alleviation. Although these multiple benefits speak positively for urban greening programs, the programs do not take into account how close human and natural systems are coupled in urban areas. Elevated temperatures together with anthropogenic emissions of air and water pollutants distinguish the urban system. Urban and sub-urban vegetation responds to ambient changes and reacts with pollutants. Neglecting the existence of this coupling may lead to unforeseen drawbacks of urban greening programs. The potential for emissions from urban vegetation combined with anthropogenic emissions to produce ozone has long been recognized. This potential increases under rising temperatures. Here we investigate how global change induced heat waves affect emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from urban vegetation and corresponding ground-level ozone levels. We also quantify other ecosystem services provided by urban vegetation (e.g., cooling and carbon storage) and their sensitivity to climate change. In this study we use Weather Research and Forecasting Model with coupled atmospheric chemistry (WRF-CHEM) to quantify these feedbacks in Berlin, Germany during the heat waves in 2003 and 2006. We highlight the importance of the vegetation for urban areas under changing climate and discuss associated tradeoffs.

Tropospheric Ozone Determined from Aura OMI and MLS: Evaluation of Measurements and Comparison with the Global Modeling Initiative's Chemical Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.; Duncan, B. N.; Froidevaux, L.; Bhartia, P. K.; Levelt, P. F.; Waters, J. W.

2006-01-01

Ozone measurements from the OMI and MLS instruments on board the Aura satellite are used for deriving global distributions of tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO is determined using the tropospheric ozone residual method which involves subtracting measurements of MLS stratospheric column ozone (SCO) from OMI total column ozone after adjusting for intercalibration differences of the two instruments using the convective-cloud differential method. The derived TCO field, which covers one complete year of mostly continuous daily measurements from late August 2004 through August 2005, is used for studying the regional and global pollution on a timescale of a few days to months. The seasonal and zonal characteristics of the observed TCO fields are also compared with TCO fields derived from the Global Modeling Initiative's Chemical Transport Model. The model and observations show interesting similarities with respect to zonal and seasonal variations. However, there are notable differences, particularly over the vast region of the Saharan desert.

Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

2014-01-01

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.

PubMed

Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J

2017-03-07

We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.

High resolution tempo-spatial ozone prediction with SVM and LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, D.; Zhang, Y.; Qu, Z.; Sadighi, K.; Coffey, E.; LIU, Q.; Hannigan, M.; Henze, D. K.; Dick, R.; Shang, L.; Lv, Q.

2017-12-01

To investigate and predict the exposure of ozone and other pollutants in urban areas, we utilize data from various infrastructures including EPA, NOAA and RIITS from government of Los Angeles and construct statistical models to conduct ozone concentration prediction in Los Angeles areas at finer spatial and temporal granularity. Our work involves cyber data such as traffic, roads and population data as features for prediction. Two statistical models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM, deep learning method) are used for prediction. . Our experiments show that kernelized SVM gains better prediction performance when taking traffic counts, road density and population density as features, with a prediction RMSE of 7.99 ppb for all-time ozone and 6.92 ppb for peak-value ozone. With simulated NOx from Chemical Transport Model(CTM) as features, SVM generates even better prediction performance, with a prediction RMSE of 6.69ppb. We also build LSTM, which has shown great advantages at dealing with temporal sequences, to predict ozone concentration by treating ozone concentration as spatial-temporal sequences. Trained by ozone concentration measurements from the 13 EPA stations in LA area, the model achieves 4.45 ppb RMSE. Besides, we build a variant of this model which adds spatial dynamics into the model in the form of transition matrix that reveals new knowledge on pollutant transition. The forgetting gate of the trained LSTM is consistent with the delay effect of ozone concentration and the trained transition matrix shows spatial consistency with the common direction of winds in LA area.

Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns

PubMed Central

Mickley, Loretta J.

2017-01-01

We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483

Extreme value modeling for the analysis and prediction of time series of extreme tropospheric ozone levels: a case study.

PubMed

Escarela, Gabriel

2012-06-01

The occurrence of high concentrations of tropospheric ozone is considered as one of the most important issues of air management programs. The prediction of dangerous ozone levels for the public health and the environment, along with the assessment of air quality control programs aimed at reducing their severity, is of considerable interest to the scientific community and to policy makers. The chemical mechanisms of tropospheric ozone formation are complex, and highly variable meteorological conditions contribute additionally to difficulties in accurate study and prediction of high levels of ozone. Statistical methods offer an effective approach to understand the problem and eventually improve the ability to predict maximum levels of ozone. In this paper an extreme value model is developed to study data sets that consist of periodically collected maxima of tropospheric ozone concentrations and meteorological variables. The methods are applied to daily tropospheric ozone maxima in Guadalajara City, Mexico, for the period January 1997 to December 2006. The model adjusts the daily rate of change in ozone for concurrent impacts of seasonality and present and past meteorological conditions, which include surface temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and ozone. The results indicate that trend, annual effects, and key meteorological variables along with some interactions explain the variation in daily ozone maxima. Prediction performance assessments yield reasonably good results.

On the Climate Impacts of Upper Tropospheric and Lower Stratospheric Ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Yan; Huang, Yi; Hu, Yongyun

2018-01-01

The global warming simulations of the general circulation models (GCMs) are generally performed with different ozone prescriptions. We find that the differences in ozone distribution, especially in the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric (UTLS) region, account for important model discrepancies shown in the ozone-only historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These discrepancies include global high cloud fraction, stratospheric temperature, and stratospheric water vapor. Through a set of experiments conducted by an atmospheric GCM with contrasting UTLS ozone prescriptions, we verify that UTLS ozone not only directly radiatively heats the UTLS region and cools the upper parts of the stratosphere but also strongly influences the high clouds due to its impact on relative humidity and static stability in the UTLS region and the stratospheric water vapor due to its impact on the tropical tropopause temperature. These consequences strongly affect the global mean effective radiative forcing of ozone, as noted in previous studies. Our findings suggest that special attention should be paid to the UTLS ozone when evaluating the climate effects of ozone depletion in the 20th century and recovery in the 21st century. UTLS ozone difference may also be important for understanding the intermodel discrepancy in the climate projections of the CMIP6 GCMs in which either prescribed or interactive ozone is used.

Predicting trace organic compound attenuation by ozone oxidation: Development of indicator and surrogate models.

PubMed

Park, Minkyu; Anumol, Tarun; Daniels, Kevin D; Wu, Shimin; Ziska, Austin D; Snyder, Shane A

2017-08-01

Ozone oxidation has been demonstrated to be an effective treatment process for the attenuation of trace organic compounds (TOrCs); however, predicting TOrC attenuation by ozone processes is challenging in wastewaters. Since ozone is rapidly consumed, determining the exposure times of ozone and hydroxyl radical proves to be difficult. As direct potable reuse schemes continue to gain traction, there is an increasing need for the development of real-time monitoring strategies for TOrC abatement in ozone oxidation processes. Hence, this study is primarily aimed at developing indicator and surrogate models for the prediction of TOrC attenuation by ozone oxidation. To this end, the second-order kinetic equations with a second-phase R ct value (ratio of hydroxyl radical exposure to molecular ozone exposure) were used to calculate comparative kinetics of TOrC attenuation and the reduction of indicator and spectroscopic surrogate parameters, including UV absorbance at 254 nm (UVA 254 ) and total fluorescence (TF). The developed indicator model using meprobamate as an indicator compound and the surrogate models with UVA 254 and TF exhibited good predictive power for the attenuation of 13 kinetically distinct TOrCs in five filtered and unfiltered wastewater effluents (R 2 values > 0.8). This study is intended to help provide a guideline for the implementation of indicator/surrogate models for real-time monitoring of TOrC abatement with ozone processes and integrate them into a regulatory framework in water reuse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tropospheric Enhancement of Ozone over the UAE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, Naveed Ali; Majeed, Tariq; Iqbal, Mazhar; Kaminski, Jacek; Struzewska, Joanna; Durka, Pawel; Tarasick, David; Davies, Jonathan

2015-04-01

We use the Global Environmental Multiscale - Air Quality (GEM-AQ) model to interpret the vertical profiles of ozone acquired with ozone sounding experiments at the meteorological site located at the Abu Dhabi airport. The purpose of this study is to gain insight into the chemical and dynamical structures in the atmosphere of this unique subtropical location (latitude 24.45N; longitude 54.22E). Ozone observations for years 2012 - 2013 reveal elevated ozone abundances in the range from 70 ppbv to 120 ppbv near 500-400 hPa during summer. The ozone abundances in other seasons are much lower than these values. The preliminary results indicate that summertime enhancement in ozone is associated with the Arabian anticyclones centered over the Zagros Mountains in Iran and the Asir and Hijaz Mountain ranges in Saudi Arabia, and is consistent with TES observations of deuterated water. The model also shows considerable seasonal variation in the tropospheric ozone which is transported from the stratosphere by dynamical processes. The domestic production of ozone in the middle troposphere is estimated and compared GEM-AQ model. It is estimated that about 40-50% of ozone in the UAE is transported from the neighbouring petrochemical industries in the Gulf region. We will present ozone sounding data and GEM-AQ results including a discussion on the high levels of the tropospheric ozone responsible for contaminating the air quality in the UAE. This work is supported by National Research Foundation, UAE.

Solar Energy Deposition Rates in the Mesosphere Derived from Airglow Measurements: Implications for the Ozone Model Deficit Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mlynczak, Martin G.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Roble, Raymond G.; Hagan, Maura

2000-01-01

We derive rates of energy deposition in the mesosphere due to the absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation by ozone. The rates are derived directly from measurements of the 1.27-microns oxygen dayglow emission, independent of knowledge of the ozone abundance, the ozone absorption cross sections, and the ultraviolet solar irradiance in the ozone Hartley band. Fifty-six months of airglow data taken between 1982 and 1986 by the near-infrared spectrometer on the Solar-Mesosphere Explorer satellite are analyzed. The energy deposition rates exhibit altitude-dependent annual and semi-annual variations. We also find a positive correlation between temperatures and energy deposition rates near 90 km at low latitudes. This correlation is largely due to the semiannual oscillation in temperature and ozone and is consistent with model calculations. There is also a suggestion of possible tidal enhancement of this correlation based on recent theoretical and observational analyses. The airglow-derived rates of energy deposition are then compared with those computed by multidimensional numerical models. The observed and modeled deposition rates typically agree to within 20%. This agreement in energy deposition rates implies the same agreement exists between measured and modeled ozone volume mixing ratios in the mesosphere. Only in the upper mesosphere at midlatitudes during winter do we derive energy deposition rates (and hence ozone mixing ratios) consistently and significantly larger than the model calculations. This result is contrary to previous studies that have shown a large model deficit in the ozone abundance throughout the mesosphere. The climatology of solar energy deposition and heating presented in this paper is available to the community at the Middle Atmosphere Energy Budget Project web site at http://heat-budget.gats-inc.com.

Source attribution of interannual variability of tropospheric ozone over the southern hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Logan, J. A.; Steenrod, S. D.; Douglass, A. R.; Olsen, M. A.; Wargan, K.; Ziemke, J. R.

2015-12-01

Both model simulations and GMAO assimilated ozone product derived from OMI/MLS show a high tropospheric ozone column centered over the south Atlantic from the equator to 30S. This ozone maximum extends eastward to South America and the southeast Pacific; it extends southwestward to southern Africa, south Indian Ocean. In this study, we use hindcast simulations from the GMI model of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, driven by assimilated MERRA meteorological fields, to investigate the factors controlling the interannual variations (IAV) of this ozone maximum during the last two decades. We also use various GMI tracer diagnostics, including a stratospheric ozone tracer to tag the impact of stratospheric ozone, and a tagged CO tracer to track the emission sources, to ascertain the contribution of difference processes to IAV in ozone at different altitudes, as well as partial columns above different pressure level. Our initial model analysis suggests that the IAV of the stratospheric contribution plays a major role on in the IAV of the upper tropospheric ozone and explains a large portion of variance during its winter season. Over the south Atlantic region, the IAV of surface emissions from both South America and southern Africa also contribute significantly to the IAV of ozone, especially in the middle and lower troposphere

A measurement/model comparison of ozone photochemical loss in the Antarctic ozone hole using Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement observations and the Match technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoppel, Karl; Bevilacqua, Richard; Canty, Timothy; Salawitch, Ross; Santee, Michelle

2005-10-01

The Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) instrument has provided 6 years (1998 to present) of Antarctic ozone profile measurements, which detail the annual formation of the ozone hole. During the period of ozone hole formation the measurement latitude follows the edge of the polar night and presents a unique challenge for comparing with model simulations. The formation of the ozone hole has been simulated by using a photochemical box model with an ensemble of trajectories, and the results were sampled at the measurement latitude for comparison with the measured ozone. The agreement is generally good but very sensitive to the model dynamics and less sensitive to changes in the model chemistry. In order to better isolate the chemical ozone loss the Match technique was applied to 5 years of data to directly calculate ozone photochemical loss rates. The measured loss rates are specific to the high solar zenith angle conditions of the POAM-Match trajectories and are found to increase slowly from July to early August and then increase rapidly until mid-September. The Match results are sensitive to the choice of meteorological analysis used for the trajectory calculations. The ECMWF trajectories yield the smallest, and perhaps most accurate, peak loss rates that can be reproduced by a photochemical model using standard JPL 2002 kinetics, assuming reactive bromine (BrOx) of 14 pptv based solely on contributions from CH3Br and halons, and without requiring ClOx to exceed the upper limit for available inorganic chlorine of 3.7 ppbv. Larger Match ozone loss rates are found for the late August and early September period if trajectories based on UKMO and NCEP analyses are employed. Such loss rates require higher values for ClO and/or BrO than can be simulated using JPL 2002 chemical kinetics and complete activation of chlorine. In these cases, the agreement between modeled and measured loss rates is significantly improved if the model employs larger ClOOCl cross sections (e.g., Burkholder et al., 1990) and BrOx of 24 ppt which reflects significant contributions from very short-lived bromocarbons to the inorganic bromine budget.

Simulation and analysis of synoptic scale dust storms over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beegum, S. Naseema; Gherboudj, Imen; Chaouch, Naira; Temimi, Marouane; Ghedira, Hosni

2018-01-01

Dust storms are among the most severe environmental problems in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. The predictability of seven dust events, viz. D1: April 2-4, 2014; D2: February 23-24, 2015; D3: April 1-3, 2015; D4: March 26-28, 2016; D5: August 3-5, 2016; D6: March 13-14, 2017 and D7:March 19-21, 2017, are investigated over the Arabian Peninsula using a regionally adapted chemistry transport model CHIMERE coupled with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. The hourly forecast products of particulate matter concentrations (PM10) and aerosol optical depths (AOD) are compared against both satellite-based (MSG/SEVRI RGB dust, MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth: DB-AOD, Ozone Monitoring Instrument observed UV Aerosol Absorption Index: OMI-AI) and ground-based (AERONET AOD) remote sensing products. The spatial pattern and the time series of the simulations show good agreement with the observations in terms of the dust intensity as well as the spatiotemporal distribution. The causative mechanisms of these dust events are identified by the concurrent analyses of the meteorological data. From these seven storms, five are associated with synoptic scale meteorological processes, such as prefrontal storms (D1 and D7), postfrontal storms of short (D2), and long (D3) duration types, and a summer shamal storm (D6). However, the storms D4 and D6 are partly associated with mesoscale convective type dust episodes known as haboobs. The socio-economic impacts of the dust events have been assessed by estimating the horizontal visibility, air quality index (AQI), and the dust deposition flux (DDF) from the forecasted dust concentrations. During the extreme dust events, the horizontal visibility drops to near-zero values co-occurred withhazardous levels of AQI and extremely high dust deposition flux (250 μg cm- 2 day- 1).

The Ozone Budget in the Upper Troposphere from Global Modeling Initiative (GMI)Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriquez, J.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Logan, Jennifer A.

2006-01-01

Ozone concentrations in the upper troposphere are influenced by in-situ production, long-range tropospheric transport, and influx of stratospheric ozone, as well as by photochemical removal. Since ozone is an important greenhouse gas in this region, it is particularly important to understand how it will respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions and changes in stratospheric ozone fluxes.. This response will be determined by the relative balance of the different production, loss and transport processes. Ozone concentrations calculated by models will differ depending on the adopted meteorological fields, their chemical scheme, anthropogenic emissions, and treatment of the stratospheric influx. We performed simulations using the chemical-transport model from the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) with meteorological fields from (It)h e NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), (2) the atmospheric GCM from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office(GMAO), and (3) assimilated winds from GMAO . These simulations adopt the same chemical mechanism and emissions, and adopt the Synthetic Ozone (SYNOZ) approach for treating the influx of stratospheric ozone -. In addition, we also performed simulations for a coupled troposphere-stratosphere model with a subset of the same winds. Simulations were done for both 4degx5deg and 2degx2.5deg resolution. Model results are being tested through comparison with a suite of atmospheric observations. In this presentation, we diagnose the ozone budget in the upper troposphere utilizing the suite of GMI simulations, to address the sensitivity of this budget to: a) the different meteorological fields used; b) the adoption of the SYNOZ boundary condition versus inclusion of a full stratosphere; c) model horizontal resolution. Model results are compared to observations to determine biases in particular simulations; by examining these comparisons in conjunction with the derived budgets, we may pinpoint deficiencies in the representation of chemical/dynamical processes.

Air Quality Response Modeling for Decision Support | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Air quality management relies on photochemical models to predict the responses of pollutant concentrations to changes in emissions. Such modeling is especially important for secondary pollutants such as ozone and fine particulate matter which vary nonlinearly with changes in emissions. Numerous techniques for probing pollutant-emission relationships within photochemical models have been developed and deployed for a variety of decision support applications. However, atmospheric response modeling remains complicated by the challenge of validating sensitivity results against observable data. This manuscript reviews the state of the science of atmospheric response modeling as well as efforts to characterize the accuracy and uncertainty of sensitivity results. The National Exposure Research Laboratory′s (NERL′s) Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division (AMAD) conducts research in support of EPA′s mission to protect human health and the environment. AMAD′s research program is engaged in developing and evaluating predictive atmospheric models on all spatial and temporal scales for forecasting the Nation′s air quality and for assessing changes in air quality and air pollutant exposures, as affected by changes in ecosystem management and regulatory decisions. AMAD is responsible for providing a sound scientific and technical basis for regulatory policies based on air quality models to improve ambient air quality. The models developed by AMAD are being use

“Ozone” – The New Nemesis of Canker Sore

PubMed Central

Reddy, R. Sudhakara; Nallakunta, Rajesh

2015-01-01

Background: Recurrent aphthous ulceration or recurrent aphthous stomatitis is one of the most debilitating and painful oral mucosal disease. This disease entity has no specific cause to occur and no proper laboratory procedures are present to elicit the diagnosis. The treatment options are largely palliative and aimed at reducing symptoms thereby improving patient’s oral condition. In the present study the subjects witnessed alleviation of clinical symptoms related to the aphthous ulceration. Aims and objectives: The aim of the study was to explore the effectiveness of ozonated oil in the treatment of recurrent aphthous ulcer and to compare with sessame oil in order to analyse the effectiveness between the two topical oil medications. Materials and Methods: A single-blinded placebo-controlled trial comprising of 30 subjects with recurrent aphthous ulcers were divided into Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 with 10 subjects in each group was performed. Patients in Group 1 received ozonated oil, Group 2 received sesame oil and Group 3 received placebo. Treatment response was assessed by measures of pain reduction, ulcer duration on 2nd, 4th and 6th day. Data were analyzed using Wilcokson signed rank test and Friedman test. Results: Participants treated with ozonated oil showed significant reduction in ulcer size, erythema and also alleviated the ulcer pain on 4th day of evaluation when compared to sesame oil and placebo group. On 6th day subjects treated with ozonated oil and sesame oil showed significant reduction in ulcer size and erythema. No significant difference was observed in placebo group when compared with other two groups on subsequent 2nd, 4th and 6th day of evaluation. Conclusion: Ozonated oil and sessame oil, both showed similar effectiveness in relieving the ulcer pain. Ozone with its wide variety of inherent properties has proven to be choice of treatment in completely relieving the ulcer pain and ulcer size when compared with that of its counter medication (i.e. sesame oil).Therefore the results obtained in the present study forecast ozone to be used as a novel treatment approach in recurrent aphthous ulcers. PMID:25954693

The mistral and its effect on air pollution transport and vertical mixing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corsmeier, U.; Behrendt, R.; Drobinski, Ph.; Kottmeier, Ch.

2005-03-01

Within the framework of ESCOMPTE, the influence of local wind systems like land-sea/mountain-valley winds on the distribution of air pollutants in the southern part of the Rhône valley and the coastal regions of southern France was investigated. In addition, the influence of the mistral on the long-range transport and vertical mixing of such substances on July 1, 2001 was analyzed. The results of the measurements of this mistral situation show high concentrations of O 3 and NO 2 in the layer just above the PBL at the southern exit of the Rhône valley near Avignon. By measurements from airborne and ground-based platforms and numerical simulations with the "Local Model" (LM) of the German Weather Service (DWD), it is shown that the mistral develops according to the theory conceived by Pettré [J. Atmos. Sci. 39 (1982) 542-554]. The synoptic-scale northerly flow through the Rhône valley is accelerated up to a Froude number ( Fr) of 2.1, while the valley widens. Then, near the Mediterranean coast, a hydraulic jump occurs and Fr drops down to values below 1.0. High ozone concentrations of 112 ppb measured above the mistral layer disappear due to enhanced mixing after the flow has passed the hydraulic jump. There is some evidence that the ozone-rich air originates from the source region of greater Paris or upwind. The results confirm that regional wind systems associated with transport of trace gases in the high-grade industrialized Rhône valley can be successfully predicted using data of operational weather forecast models.

A revised global ozone dry deposition estimate based on a new two-layer parameterisation for air-sea exchange and the multi-year MACC composition reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luhar, Ashok K.; Woodhouse, Matthew T.; Galbally, Ian E.

2018-03-01

Dry deposition at the Earth's surface is an important sink of atmospheric ozone. Currently, dry deposition of ozone to the ocean surface in atmospheric chemistry models has the largest uncertainty compared to deposition to other surface types, with implications for global tropospheric ozone budget and associated radiative forcing. Most global models assume that the dominant term of surface resistance in the parameterisation of ozone dry deposition velocity at the oceanic surface is constant. There have been recent mechanistic parameterisations for air-sea exchange that account for the simultaneous waterside processes of ozone solubility, molecular diffusion, turbulent transfer, and first-order chemical reaction of ozone with dissolved iodide and other compounds, but there are questions about their performance and consistency. We present a new two-layer parameterisation scheme for the oceanic surface resistance by making the following realistic assumptions: (a) the thickness of the top water layer is of the order of a reaction-diffusion length scale (a few micrometres) within which ozone loss is dominated by chemical reaction and the influence of waterside turbulent transfer is negligible; (b) in the water layer below, both chemical reaction and waterside turbulent transfer act together and are accounted for; and (c) chemical reactivity is present through the depth of the oceanic mixing layer. The new parameterisation has been evaluated against dry deposition velocities from recent open-ocean measurements. It is found that the inclusion of only the aqueous iodide-ozone reaction satisfactorily describes the measurements. In order to better quantify the global dry deposition loss and its interannual variability, modelled 3-hourly ozone deposition velocities are combined with the 3-hourly MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) reanalysis ozone for the years 2003-2012. The resulting ozone dry deposition is found to be 98.4 ± 30.0 Tg O3 yr-1 for the ocean and 722.8 ± 87.3 Tg O3 yr-1 globally. The new estimate of the ocean component is approximately a third of the current model estimates. This reduction corresponds to an approximately 20 % decrease in the total global ozone dry deposition, which (with all other components being unchanged) is equivalent to an increase of approximately 5 % in the modelled tropospheric ozone burden and a similar increase in tropospheric ozone lifetime.

The Impact of Chemical Mechanism Design on Simulated Surface Ozone in CAM-Chem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwantes, R.; Emmons, L. K.; Orlando, J. J.; Tyndall, G. S.

2017-12-01

Many regions in the United States have poor air quality because of high levels of ozone. Global and regional chemical transport models are important tools for recommending regulatory policy directions to efficiently reduce ozone. Ozone is intrinsically hard to simulate in global and regional models because the amount of ozone present is controlled by large non-linear sources and sinks. Recent field campaigns have concluded that monoterpene chemistry is particularly important for the NOx budget and thereby O3 formation. However, many regional and global models have none or heavily reduced monoterpene chemical schemes. In this study, the chemical mechanism for isoprene and monoterpene oxidation will be significantly improved and updated in CAM-Chem (Community Atmosphere Model with chemistry), which is a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In particular, the updates will focus on accurately portraying organic nitrate formation and fate. The impact of various uncertainties (e.g., nitrate yields, later generation chemistry, loss of organic nitrates to aerosols via hydrolysis, etc.) on ozone formation will be tested. This study will both improve the chemistry in CAM-Chem and reveal lingering uncertainties that have the largest impact on ozone formation.

Children's Models of Understanding of Two Major Global Environmental Issues (Ozone Layer and Greenhouse Effect).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyes, Edward; Stanisstreet, Martin

1997-01-01

Aims to quantify the models that 13- and 14 year-old students hold about the causes of the greenhouse effect and ozone layer depletion. Assesses the prevalence of those ideas that link the two phenomena. Twice as many students think that holes in the ozone layer cause the greenhouse effect than think the greenhouse effect causes ozone depletion.…

Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Son, Seok-Woo; Han, Bo-Reum; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Kim, Seo-Yeon; Park, Rokjin; Abraham, N. Luke; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alexander T.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip S.; Hardiman, Steven C.; Jöckel, Patrick; Kinnison, Douglas; Michou, Martine; Morgenstern, Olaf; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oman, Luke D.; Plummer, David A.; Pozzer, Andrea; Revell, Laura E.; Rozanov, Eugene; Stenke, Andrea; Stone, Kane; Tilmes, Simone; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

2018-05-01

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) zonal-mean circulation change in response to Antarctic ozone depletion is re-visited by examining a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models reasonably well reproduce Antarctic ozone depletion in the late 20th century. The related SH-summer circulation changes, such as a poleward intensification of westerly jet and a poleward expansion of the Hadley cell, are also well captured. All experiments exhibit quantitatively the same multi-model mean trend, irrespective of whether the ocean is coupled or prescribed. Results are also quantitatively similar to those derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) high-top model simulations in which the stratospheric ozone is mostly prescribed with monthly- and zonally-averaged values. These results suggest that the ozone-hole-induced SH-summer circulation changes are robust across the models irrespective of the specific chemistry-atmosphere-ocean coupling.

On ozone trend detection: using coupled chemistry-climate simulations to investigate early signs of total column ozone recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeble, James; Brown, Hannah; Abraham, N. Luke; Harris, Neil R. P.; Pyle, John A.

2018-06-01

Total column ozone values from an ensemble of UM-UKCA model simulations are examined to investigate different definitions of progress on the road to ozone recovery. The impacts of modelled internal atmospheric variability are accounted for by applying a multiple linear regression model to modelled total column ozone values, and ozone trend analysis is performed on the resulting ozone residuals. Three definitions of recovery are investigated: (i) a slowed rate of decline and the date of minimum column ozone, (ii) the identification of significant positive trends and (iii) a return to historic values. A return to past thresholds is the last state to be achieved. Minimum column ozone values, averaged from 60° S to 60° N, occur between 1990 and 1995 for each ensemble member, driven in part by the solar minimum conditions during the 1990s. When natural cycles are accounted for, identification of the year of minimum ozone in the resulting ozone residuals is uncertain, with minimum values for each ensemble member occurring at different times between 1992 and 2000. As a result of this large variability, identification of the date of minimum ozone constitutes a poor measure of ozone recovery. Trends for the 2000-2017 period are positive at most latitudes and are statistically significant in the mid-latitudes in both hemispheres when natural cycles are accounted for. This significance results largely from the large sample size of the multi-member ensemble. Significant trends cannot be identified by 2017 at the highest latitudes, due to the large interannual variability in the data, nor in the tropics, due to the small trend magnitude, although it is projected that significant trends may be identified in these regions soon thereafter. While significant positive trends in total column ozone could be identified at all latitudes by ˜ 2030, column ozone values which are lower than the 1980 annual mean can occur in the mid-latitudes until ˜ 2050, and in the tropics and high latitudes deep into the second half of the 21st century.

On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krzyscin, J.W.

1994-07-01

The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less

Key factors controlling ozone production in wildfire plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, D. A.

2017-12-01

Production of ozone in wildfire plumes is complex and highly variable. As a wildfire plume mixes into an urban area, ozone is often, but not always, produced. We have examined multiple factors that can help explain some of this variability. This includes CO/NOy enhancement ratios, photolysis rates, PAN/NOy fraction and degree of NOx oxidation. While fast ozone production is well known, on average, ozone production increases downwind in a plume for several days. Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) is likely a key cause for delayed ozone formation. Recent observations at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory a mountain top observatory relatively remote from nearby anthropogenic influence and in Boise Idaho, an urban setting, show the importance of PAN in wildfire plumes. From these observations we can devise a conceptual model that considers four factors in ozone production: NOx/VOC emission ratio; degree of NOx oxidation; transport time and pathway; and mixing with urban pollutants. Using this conceptual model, we can then devise a lagrangian modeling strategy that can be used to improve our understanding of ozone production in wildfire plumes, both in remote and urban settings.

Relative effects on stratospheric ozone of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Donald A.; Hales, Charles H.; Filkin, David L.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Sze, N. Dak; Connell, Peter S.; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Stordal, Frode

1990-01-01

Four atmospheric modeling groups have calculated relative effects of several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a, carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) on stratospheric ozone. Effects on stratospheric ozone were calculated for each compound and normalized relative to the effect of CFC-11. These models include the representations for homogeneous physical and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere but do no account for either heterogeneous chemistry or polar dynamics which are important in the spring time loss of ozone over Antarctica. Relative calculated effects using a range of models compare reasonably well. Within the limits of the uncertainties of these model results, compounds now under consideration as functional replacements for fully halogenated compounds have modeled stratospheric ozone reductions of 10 percent or less of that of CFC-11. Sensitivity analyses examined the sensitivity of relative calculated effects to levels of other trace gases, assumed transport in the models, and latitudinal and seasonal local dependencies. Relative effects on polar ozone are discussed in the context of evolving information on the special processes affecting ozone, especially during polar winter-springtime. Lastly, the time dependency of relative effects were calculated.

Source Attribution of Tropospheric Ozone using a Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coates, J.; Lupascu, A.; Butler, T. M.; Zhu, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is both a short-lived climate forcing pollutant and a radiatively active greenhouse gas. Ozone is not directly emitted into the troposphere but photochemically produced from chemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) have both natural and anthropogenic sources and may be transported away from their sources to produce ozone downwind. Also, transport of ozone from the stratosphere into the troposphere also influences tropospheric ozone levels in some regions. Attributing ozone concentrations to the contributions from different sources would indicate the effects of locally emitted or transported precursors on ozone levels in specific regions. This information could be used to inform the emission reduction strategies of ozone precursors by indicating which emission sources could be targeted for effective reductions thus reducing the burden of ozone pollution. We use a "tagging" approach within the CESM global model to attribute ozone levels to their source emissions. We use different tags to quantify the impact from natural (soils, lightning, stratospheric transport) and anthropogenic (aircraft, biomass burning) sources of NOx and VOCs (including methane) on ozone levels. These source sectors of different global regions are assigned based on the global emissions specified by HTAPv2.2. Using these results, we develop a transboundary source-receptor relationship of ozone concentration to its precursor emission regions. Additionally, the transport of ozone precursors from regional anthropogenic sources is analysed to illustrate the extent to which mitigation strategies of regional emissions aid in mitigating global ozone levels.

Extensive halogen-mediated ozone destruction over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Read, Katie A; Mahajan, Anoop S; Carpenter, Lucy J; Evans, Mathew J; Faria, Bruno V E; Heard, Dwayne E; Hopkins, James R; Lee, James D; Moller, Sarah J; Lewis, Alastair C; Mendes, Luis; McQuaid, James B; Oetjen, Hilke; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Pilling, Michael J; Plane, John M C

2008-06-26

Increasing tropospheric ozone levels over the past 150 years have led to a significant climate perturbation; the prediction of future trends in tropospheric ozone will require a full understanding of both its precursor emissions and its destruction processes. A large proportion of tropospheric ozone loss occurs in the tropical marine boundary layer and is thought to be driven primarily by high ozone photolysis rates in the presence of high concentrations of water vapour. A further reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden through bromine and iodine emitted from open-ocean marine sources has been postulated by numerical models, but thus far has not been verified by observations. Here we report eight months of spectroscopic measurements at the Cape Verde Observatory indicative of the ubiquitous daytime presence of bromine monoxide and iodine monoxide in the tropical marine boundary layer. A year-round data set of co-located in situ surface trace gas measurements made in conjunction with low-level aircraft observations shows that the mean daily observed ozone loss is approximately 50 per cent greater than that simulated by a global chemistry model using a classical photochemistry scheme that excludes halogen chemistry. We perform box model calculations that indicate that the observed halogen concentrations induce the extra ozone loss required for the models to match observations. Our results show that halogen chemistry has a significant and extensive influence on photochemical ozone loss in the tropical Atlantic Ocean boundary layer. The omission of halogen sources and their chemistry in atmospheric models may lead to significant errors in calculations of global ozone budgets, tropospheric oxidizing capacity and methane oxidation rates, both historically and in the future.

Impact of iodine chemistry on coastal ozone levels at the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuite, K.; Stutz, J.; Brockway, N.; Colosimo, S. F.; Tsai, J. Y.; Grossmann, K.; Alvarez, S. L.; Flynn, J. H., III; Erickson, M.; Caicedo, V.; Griffin, R. J.; Wallace, H. W., IV; Schulze, B.; Sheesley, R. J.; Usenko, S.; Yarwood, G.; Nopmongcol, U.

2016-12-01

Reactive iodine (Ix = I + IO) is known to destroy ozone through catalytic cycles in the marine boundary layer (MBL) and can thus have a significant impact on tropospheric ozone in coastal regions. As air quality standards for ozone become stricter, accurate background levels are increasingly important for the development of ozone reduction strategies. The Texas Gulf coast is an example for the significance of MBL background ozone, as onshore flows from the Gulf of Mexico contribute to the ozone levels in Houston and other coastal areas. The Gulf coast often experiences ozone mixing ratios below 20 ppb during summer onshore flow conditions, which are currently overestimated by regional and global air quality models. Modeling with the Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions (CAMx) and GEOS-Chem including halogen chemistry identified iodine emissions from the Gulf of Mexico as a possible explanation. However, ambient measurements of Ix species for the Gulf of Mexico are needed to test this hypothesis and, if confirmed, refine models. We measured IO, O3, and other trace gases at the Gulf coast near Galveston, TX, using UCLA's long path DOAS instrument and a suite of in-situ instruments. During the study period from May 15 through July 12, 2016, several multi-day events with MBL ozone levels below 20 ppb were encountered. Here we present the observational data with a focus on time periods with onshore flow from the Gulf. A chemical steady state analysis will be used to assess whether the observed Ix mixing ratios can explain these low ozone mixing ratios. Our results will be compared to the CAMx and GEOS-Chem model simulations.

Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

2018-01-01

Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context of our increasing understanding of model transport driven by assimilated winds.

Quasi-biennial oscillations of ozone and diabatic circulation in the equatorial stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasebe, Fumio

1994-01-01

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in ozone in the equatorial stratosphere is obtained by analyzing the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) data from 1984 to 1989. The phase of the ozone QBO in the lower stratosphere is found to precede the zonal wind QBO by several months as opposed to the theoretically expected in-phase relationship between the two. A mechanistic model is developed to explore possible reasons for this disagreement. The model is capable of simulating the actual time evolution of the ozone QBO by introducing the observed zonal wind profile as input. The modeled results confirm the conventional view that the ozone QBO is generated by the vertical ozone advection that is driven to maintain the temperature structure against radiative damping. However, a series of experiments emphasizes the importance of the feedback of the ozone QBO to the diabatic heating through the absorption of solar radiation. Due to this effect, the phase of the ozone QBO shifts up to a quarter cycle ahead and approaches that of the temperature QBO. Because of this inphase relationship, the feedback of the ozone QBO to the diabatic heating acts to compensate for the radiative damping of the temperature structure, thus reducing the magnitude of the induced diabatic circulation. Because the reduction of the magnitude of the vertical motion facilitates downward transport of easterly momentum by the mean flow, this feedback process can help to resolve the insufficiency of the easterly momentum in driving the dynamical QBO in general circulation models (GCMs). It should be emphasized that more sophisticated models that allow for full interaction between the chemical species and radiative and dynamical processes should be developed to improve our understanding of both dynamical and ozone QBOs.

Projections of Future Summertime Ozone over the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pfister, G. G.; Walters, Stacy; Lamarque, J. F.

This study uses a regional fully coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution (12 km grid spacing) under the SRES A2 climate and RCP8.5 anthropogenic pre-cursor emission scenario. The impact of predicted changes in climate and global background ozone is estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S; the 5th - 95th percentile range for daily 8-hour maximum surface ozone increases from 31-79 ppbV to 30-87 ppbV between the present and future time periods. The analysis of a set ofmore » meteorological drivers suggests that these mostly will add to increasing ozone, but the set of simulations conducted does not allow to separate this effect from that through enhanced global background ozone. Statistically the most robust positive feedbacks are through increased temperature, biogenic emissions and solar radiation. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks and if considered, we estimate large reductions in surface ozone with the 5th-95th percentile reduced to 27-55 ppbV. A comparison of the high-resolution projections to global model projections shows that even though the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations, both the global and the regional model predict similar changes in ozone between the present and future time periods. However, on smaller spatial scales, the regional predictions show more pronounced changes between urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of global model. In addition, the sign of the changes in overall ozone mixing ratios can be different between the global and the regional predictions in certain regions, such as the Western U.S. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality predictions and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in emission policy making. It also illustrates the need for high resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society.« less

A study of the dynamics and photochemistry of vibrationally excited ozone in the middle atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufmann, M.; Gil-Lopez, S.; Imk-Iaa Mipas/Envisat Team

The vibrational states of ozone depart from local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) due to radiative absorption, chemical pumping, spontaneous emission, and photochemical reaction. The recombination reaction of O+O_2 is the most important source of highly excited ozone, however the distribution of the energy disposal (nascent distribution) is poorly known. In addition, the collisional relaxation scheme is another significant source of uncertainty in the modeling of ozone infrared radiation. We have built a non-LTE model being part of the Generic RAdiative traNsfer AnD non-LTE population Algorithm (GRANADA) that represents the nascent distribution by means of a linear surprisal model. For the collisional relaxation we extrapolate measured rates of the fundamental bands to hot band transitions by using a Landau-Teller type scaling in combination with a relaxation-path dependent energy-gap model. In this talk we present model results in terms of ozone vibrational temperatures and atmospheric limb radiances in the 4-15 μm region. The modeled limb spectra will be compared with measurements from the MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmosphere Sounding) instrument on board of the polar orbiter ENVISAT. The high spectral resolution of this instrument gives a unique opportunity to observe ozone non-LTE emissions down to the lower stratosphere where ozone densities are high enough to sense even highly excited vibrational states. These give valuable information for the validation of the non-LTE scheme, and therefore will improve the quality of upper mesospheric ozone retrievals.

Benchmarking CCMI models' top-of-atmosphere flux in the 9.6-µm ozone band using AURA TES Instantaneous Radiative Kernel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuai, L.; Bowman, K. W.; Worden, H. M.; Paulot, F.; Paynter, D.; Oman, L.; Strode, S. A.; Rozanov, E.; Stenke, A.; Revell, L. E.; Plummer, D. A.

2017-12-01

The estimated ozone radiative forcing (RF) from chemical-climate models range widely from +0.2 to +0.6 Wm-2. The reason has never been well understood. Since the ozone absorption in the 9.6 μm band contributes 97% of the O3 longwave RF, the variation of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) due to ozone is dominant by this band. The observed TOA flux over 9.6 µm ozone band by Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) shows the global distribution has unique spatial patterns. In addition, the simulated TOA fluxes over 9.6 µm ozone band by different models have never been evaluated against observations. The bias of TOA flux from model could be primarily contributed by the bias of temperature, water vapor and ozone. Furthermore, the sensitivity of TOA flux to tropospheric ozone (instantaneous radiative kernel, IRK) may also affected by these biases (Kuai et al., 2017). The bias in TOA flux would eventually propagate into model calculations of ozone RF and cause divergence of the predictions of future climate by models. In this study, we applied the observation-based IRK product by AURA TES to attribute the CCMI model bias in TOA flux over 9.6 µm ozone band to ozone, water vapor, air temperature, and surface temperature. The comparisons of the three CCMI models (AM3, SOCOL3 and GEOCCM) to TES observations suggest that 1) all models underestimate the TOA flux at tropics and subtropics. 2) The TOA flux bias is comparable similar by AM3 and GEOSCC (-0.2 to -0.3 W/m2) however is larger for the relative young model, SOCOL3 (-0.4 to -0.6 W/m2). 3) The contributions by surface temperature are similarly moderate (-0.2 W/m2). 4) The contribution of ozone is largest by SOCOL3 (-0.3 W/m2), smallest by GEOSCCM (less than 0.1 W/m2) and moderate by AM3 (-0.2 W/m2). 5) Overall, the contributions by atmospheric temperature are all small (less than 0.1 W/m2). 6) The contribution of water vapor is negative and small by both SOCOL3 and GEOSCCM (0.1 W/m2) however large and positive by AM3 (0.2 W/m2). This postive bias compensate the negative bias from other terms in AM3 and make a tropical minimum in TOA flux bias. It means it is `right for the wrong reasons' at tropics in AM3. The same analysis will be extended to three more CCMI models (CMAM, EMAC, and MRI) and eventually to all CCMI models.

The chemical and radiative effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kinneson, Douglas E.; Grant, Keith E.; Connell, Peter S.; Rotman, Douglas A.; Wuebbles, Donald J.

1994-01-01

To clarify the mechanisms leading to effects on stratospheric ozone, time-dependent stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment II (SAGE II) and cryogenic limb array elaton spectrometer (CLAES) aerosol optical extinction data and SAGE II surface area density are used as parameters in a two-dimensional (2-D) zonally averaged chemical radiative transport model. The model was integrated with time from before the eruption through December 1993. The modeled impact on global ozone results from increased rates of heterogeneous reactions on sulfate aerosols and from the increased radiative heating and scattering caused by these aerosols. When the aerosol heating is allowed to modify the temperature distribution, the maximum change calculated in equatorial column ozone is -1.6%. The calculated equatorial temperature change and peak local ozone change in October 1991 are +6K and -4%, respectively. When aerosol heating perturbs the circulation in the model, the maximum change in equatorial column ozone is -6%. Increased heterogeneous processing on sulfate aerosols is calculated to have changed equatorial column ozone in late 1991 by -1.5%. Global column ozone in the model in 1992 and 1993 changed by -2.8% and -2.4%, respectively. The relationship of ozone-controlling processes in the lower stratosphere is altered as well; HO(x) becomes the most important catalytic cycle, followed by ClO(x) and NO(x). This is driven by significant changes in trace gas concentrations. In October 1991, lower stratospheric, equatorial NO(x) decreased by 40%, ClO(x) increased by 60%, and HO(x) increased by 25%. When the effect of heterogeneous chemical processing on sulfate aerosols is combined with aerosol heating, modifying either circulation or temperature, dramatically different ozone fingerprints with time and latitude are predicted. Model-derived changes in the equatorial region in column ozone best represented the observed data when perturbed circulation was combined with heterogeneous chemical effects. However, at high latitudes, the increased ozone production from the strengthening of the mean circulation tends to cancel the heterogeneous reduction of ozone. This is not in good agreement with observed data, especially in 1992 and 1993. When the circulation is held fixed and the temperature allowed to change, and heterogeneous chemical effects are included, the equatorial ozone decrease predicted was too small for 1991. However, the mid- to high-latitude decrease in 1992 and 1993 is in better agreement with observed data.

Theoretical analysis of ozone generation by pulsed dielectric barrier discharge in oxygen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, L. S.; Zhou, J. H.; Wang, Z. H.; Cen, K. F.

2007-08-01

The use of very short high-voltage pulses combined with a dielectric layer results in high-energy electrons that dissociate oxygen molecules into atoms, which are a prerequisite for the subsequent production of ozone by collisions with oxygen molecules and third particles. The production of ozone depends on both the electrical and the physical parameters. For ozone generation by pulsed dielectric barrier discharge in oxygen, a mathematical model, which describes the relation between ozone concentration and these parameters that are of importance in its design, is developed according to dimensional analysis theory. A formula considering the ozone destruction factor is derived for predicting the characteristics of the ozone generation, within the range of the corona inception voltage to the gap breakdown voltage. The trend showing the dependence of the concentration of ozone in oxygen on these parameters generally agrees with the experimental results, thus confirming the validity of the mathematical model.

Two-dimensional model studies of the effect of supersonic aircraft operations on the stratospheric ozone content

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitten, R. C.; Borucki, W. J.; Poppoff, I. G.; Latt, L.; Widhopf, G. F.; Capone, L. A.; Reigel, C. A.

1981-01-01

For a fleet of 250 aircraft, the change in the ozone column is predicted to be very close to zero; in fact, the ozone overburden may actually increase as a result of show that above 25 to 30 km the ozone abundance decreases via catalytic destruction, but at lower heights it increases, mainly as a result of coupling with odd hydrogen species. Water vapor released in the engine exhaust is predicted to cause ozone decreases; for the hypothetical engines used in the study, the total column ozone changes due to water vapor emission largely offset the predicted ozone increases due to NOx emission. The actual effect of water vapor may be less than calculated because present models do not include thermal feedback. Feedback refers to the cooling effect of additional water vapor that would tend to slow the NOx reactions which destroy ozone.

Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol.

PubMed

Chipperfield, M P; Dhomse, S S; Feng, W; McKenzie, R L; Velders, G J M; Pyle, J A

2015-05-26

Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ∼2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ∼15% by 2013.

Quantifying the ozone and ultraviolet benefits already achieved by the Montreal Protocol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chipperfield, M. P.; Dhomse, S. S.; Feng, W.; McKenzie, R. L.; Velders, G. J. M.; Pyle, J. A.

2015-05-01

Chlorine- and bromine-containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol. In consequence, atmospheric equivalent chlorine peaked in 1993 and has been declining slowly since then. Consistent with this, models project a gradual increase in stratospheric ozone with the Antarctic ozone hole expected to disappear by ~2050. However, we show that by 2013 the Montreal Protocol had already achieved significant benefits for the ozone layer. Using a 3D atmospheric chemistry transport model, we demonstrate that much larger ozone depletion than observed has been avoided by the protocol, with beneficial impacts on surface ultraviolet. A deep Arctic ozone hole, with column values <120 DU, would have occurred given meteorological conditions in 2011. The Antarctic ozone hole would have grown in size by 40% by 2013, with enhanced loss at subpolar latitudes. The decline over northern hemisphere middle latitudes would have continued, more than doubling to ~15% by 2013.

The effects of global change upon United States air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Abraham, R.; Avise, J.; Chung, S. H.; Lamb, B.; Salathé, E. P., Jr.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D.; Guenther, A.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Zhang, Y.; Streets, D. G.

2014-12-01

To understand more fully the effects of global changes on ambient concentrations of ozone and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in the US, we conducted a comprehensive modeling effort to evaluate explicitly the effects of changes in climate, biogenic emissions, land use, and global/regional anthropogenic emissions on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations and composition. Results from the ECHAM5 global climate model driven with the A1B emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to provide regional meteorological fields. We developed air quality simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) chemical transport model for two nested domains with 220 and 36 km horizontal grid cell resolution for a semi-hemispheric domain and a continental United States (US) domain, respectively. The semi-hemispheric domain was used to evaluate the impact of projected Asian emissions changes on US air quality. WRF meteorological fields were used to calculate current (2000s) and future (2050s) biogenic emissions using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). For the semi-hemispheric domain CMAQ simulations, present-day global emissions inventories were used and projected to the 2050s based on the IPCC A1B scenario. Regional anthropogenic emissions were obtained from the US Environmental Protection Agency National Emission Inventory 2002 (EPA NEI2002) and projected to the future using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model assuming a business as usual scenario that extends current decade emission regulations through 2050. Our results suggest that daily maximum 8 h average ozone (DM8O) concentrations will increase in a range between 2 to 12 ppb across most of the continental US, with the highest increase in the South, Central, and Midwest regions of the US, due to increases in temperature, enhanced biogenic emissions, and changes in land use. The effects of these factors are only partially offset by reductions in DM8O associated with decreasing US anthropogenic emissions. Increases in PM2.5 levels between 2 and 4 μg m-3 in the Northeast, Southeast, and South regions are mostly a result of enhanced biogenic emissions and land use changes. Little change in PM2.5 in the Central, Northwest, and Southwest regions was found, even when PM precursors are reduced with regulatory curtailment. Changes in temperature, relative humidity, and boundary conditions shift the composition but do not alter overall PM2.5 mass concentrations.

Medium-range reference evapotranspiration forecasts for the contiguous United States based on multi-model numerical weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, Hanoi; Tian, Di; Srivastava, Puneet; Pelosi, Anna; Chirico, Giovanni B.

2018-07-01

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) plays a fundamental role in agronomic, forestry, and water resources management. Estimating and forecasting ET0 have long been recognized as a major challenge for researchers and practitioners in these communities. This work explored the potential of multiple leading numerical weather predictions (NWPs) for estimating and forecasting summer ET0 at 101 U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network stations over nine climate regions across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Three leading global NWP model forecasts from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset were used in this study, including the single model ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EC), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP), and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office forecasts (MO), as well as multi-model ensemble forecasts from the combinations of these NWP models. A regression calibration was employed to bias correct the ET0 forecasts. Impact of individual forecast variables on ET0 forecasts were also evaluated. The results showed that the EC forecasts provided the least error and highest skill and reliability, followed by the MO and NCEP forecasts. The multi-model ensembles constructed from the combination of EC and MO forecasts provided slightly better performance than the single model EC forecasts. The regression process greatly improved ET0 forecast performances, particularly for the regions involving stations near the coast, or with a complex orography. The performance of EC forecasts was only slightly influenced by the size of the ensemble members, particularly at short lead times. Even with less ensemble members, EC still performed better than the other two NWPs. Errors in the radiation forecasts, followed by those in the wind, had the most detrimental effects on the ET0 forecast performances.