Sample records for pacific climate variability
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.
2011-12-01
Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records
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Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.
Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M
2015-09-15
Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.
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Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J
2014-01-01
In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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Climate Variability and Phytoplankton in the Pacific Ocean
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rousseaux, Cecile
2012-01-01
The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p<0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Nina events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fang, Keyan; Cook, Edward; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Zhao, Yan
2018-02-01
Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.
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Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Di Lorenzo, Emanuele
This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.
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Enhancing seasonal climate prediction capacity for the Pacific countries
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Hendon, H.; Charles, A.; Cottrill, A.; Lim, E.-P.; Langford, S.; de Wit, R.; Shelton, K.
2012-04-01
Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island Countries to climate change and there is need to improve weekly to seasonal range climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models. In the seasonal climate prediction project under the Australian Government's Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), we describe a comprehensive project to strengthen the climate prediction capacities in National Meteorological Services in 14 Pacific Island Countries and East Timor. The intent is particularly to reduce the vulnerability of current services to a changing climate, and improve the overall level of information available assist with managing climate variability. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region. In this project, we have developed seasonal climate outlooks which are based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, meteorological services of the Pacific Island Countries largely employ statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Outcomes of the PASAP project enhanced capabilities of the Pacific Island Countries in seasonal prediction providing National Meteorological Services with an additional tool to analyse meteorological variables such as sea surface temperatures, air temperature, pressure and rainfall using POAMA outputs and prepare more accurate seasonal climate outlooks.
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The Effect of ENSO on Phytoplankton Composition in the Pacific Ocean
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rousseaux, Cecile
2012-01-01
The effect of climate variability on phytoplankton communities was assessed for the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005 using an established biogeochemical assimilation model. The phytoplankton communities exhibited wide range of responses to climate variability, from radical shifts in the Equatorial Pacific, to changes of only a couple of phytoplankton groups in the North Central Pacific, to no significant changes in the South Pacific. In the Equatorial Pacific, climate variability dominated the variability of phytoplankton. Here, nitrate, chlorophyll and all but one of the 4 phytoplankton types (diatoms, cyanobacteria and coccolithophores) were strongly correlated (p less than 0.01) with the Multivariate El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). In the North Central Pacific, MEI and chlorophyll were significantly (p<0.01) correlated along with two of the phytoplankton groups (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). Ocean biology in the South Pacific was not significantly correlated with MEI. During La Ni a events, diatoms increased and expanded westward along the cold tongue (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.78). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. The diverse response of phytoplankton in the different major basins of the Pacific suggests the different roles climate variability can play in ocean biology.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rustic, G. T.; Polissar, P. J.; Ravelo, A. C.; White, S. M.
2017-12-01
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a dominant role in Earth's climate variability. Paleoceanographic evidence suggests that ENSO has changed in the past, and these changes have been linked to large-scale climatic shifts. While a close relationship between ENSO evolution and climate boundary conditions has been predicted, testing these predictions remains challenging. These climate boundary conditions, including insolation, the mean surface temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific, global ice volume, and tropical thermocline depth, often co-vary and may work together to suppress or enhance the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO variability. Furthermore, suitable paleo-archives spanning multiple climate states are sparse. We have aimed to test ENSO response to changing climate boundary conditions by generating new reconstructions of mixed-layer variability from sedimentary archives spanning the last three glacial-interglacial cycles from the Central Tropical Pacific Line Islands, where El Niño is strongly expressed. We analyzed Mg/Ca ratios from individual foraminifera to reconstruct mixed-layer variability at discrete time intervals representing combinations of climatic boundary conditions from the middle Holocene to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8. We observe changes in the mixed-layer temperature variability during MIS 5 and during the previous interglacial (MIS 7) showing significant reductions in ENSO amplitude. Differences in variability during glacial and interglacial intervals are also observed. Additionally, we reconstructed mixed-layer and thermocline conditions using multi-species Mg/Ca and stable isotope measurements to more fully characterize the state of the Central Tropical Pacific during these intervals. These reconstructions provide us with a unique view of Central Tropical Pacific variability and water-column structure at discrete intervals under varying boundary climate conditions with which to assess factors that shape ENSO variability.
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North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661
Biondi, Franco; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.
2001-01-01
Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the twentieth century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California extends the instrumental record and reveals decadal-scale variability back to 1661. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability that provides a preliminary view of multiannual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late l700s to mid-1800s. A comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947.
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The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific Climate
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.
1999-01-01
In this study, the NASA GEOS and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and GPCP rainfall data have been used to study the variability of the East Asian westerly jet stream and its impact on the Asian-Pacific climate, with a focus on interannual time scales. Results indicate that external forcings such as sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface processes also play an important role in the variability of the jet although this variability is strongly governed by internal dynamics. There is a close link between the jet and Asian-Pacific climate including the Asian winter monsoon and tropical convection. The atmospheric teleconnection pattern associated with the jet is different from the ENSO-related pattern. The influence of the jet on eastern Pacific and North American climate is also discussed.
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Earth System Science Education Centered on Natural Climate Variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez, P. C.; Ladochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.
2009-12-01
Several new courses and many educational activities related to climate change are available to teachers and students of all grade levels. However, not all new discoveries in climate research have reached the science education community. In particular, effective learning tools explaining natural climate change are scarce. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a main cause of natural climate variability spanning decades. While most educators are familiar with the shorter-temporal events impacting climate, El Niño and La Niña, very little has trickled into the climate change curriculum on the PDO. We have developed two online educational modules, using an Earth system science approach, on the PDO and its role in climate change and variability. The first concentrates on the discovery of the PDO through records of salmon catch in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. We present the connection between salmon abundance in the North Pacific to changing sea surface temperature patterns associated with the PDO. The connection between sea surface temperatures and salmon abundance led to the discovery of the PDO. Our activity also lets students explore the role of salmon in the economy and culture of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska and the environmental requirements for salmon survival. The second module is based on the climate of southern California and how changes in the Pacific Ocean , such as the PDO and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), influence regional climate variability. PDO and ENSO signals are evident in the long-term temperature and precipitation record of southern California. Students are guided in the module to discover the relationships between Pacific Ocean conditions and southern California climate variability. The module also provides information establishing the relationship between climate change and variability and the state's water, energy, agriculture, wildfires and forestry, air quality and health issues. Both modules will be reviewed for inclusion on the ESSEA (Earth Systems Science Education Alliance) course module list. ESSEA is a NSF-funded organization dedicated to K-12 online Earth system science education.
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Identifying Decadal to Multi-decadal Variability in the Pacific by Empirical Mode Decomposition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sommers, L. A.; Hamlington, B.; Cheon, S. H.
2016-12-01
Large scale climate variability in the Pacific Ocean like that associated with ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been shown to have a significant impact on climate and sea level across a range of timescales. The changes related to these climate signals have worldwide impacts on fisheries, weather, and precipitation patterns among others. Understanding these inter-annual to multi-decadal oscillations is imperative to longer term climate forecasts and understanding how climate will behave, and its effect on changes in sea level. With a 110-year reconstruction of sea level, we examine decadal to multi-decadal variability seen in the sea level fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean. Using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), we break down regional sea level into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and attempt attribution of these IMFs to specific climate modes of variability. In particular, and not unexpectedly, we identify IMFs associated with the PDO, finding correlations between the PDO Index and IMFs in the Pacific Ocean upwards of 0.6-0.8 over the 110-year reconstructed record. Perhaps more significantly, we also find evidence of a longer multi-decadal signal ( 50-60 years) in the higher order IMFs. This lower frequency variability has been suggested in previous literature as influencing GMSL, but here we find a regional pattern associated with this multi-decadal signal. By identifying and separating these periodic climate signals, we can gain a better understanding of how the sea level variability associated with these modes can impact sea level on short timescales and serve to exacerbate the effects of long-term sea level change.
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Synchronous centennial-scale variability in abundance of remote sardine populations in the Pacific
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuwae, M.; Takashige, S.; Yamamoto, M.; Sagawa, T.; Takeoka, H.
2012-12-01
A number of studies have identified evidence for connections between Pacific climate decadal variability and variations in Pacific marine ecosystems which are typically shown in abundance of remote sardine and anchovy species off Japan, California, Peru, and Chile as well as Alaska salmon species. The variations in climate indices and abundance of sardine and anchovy species most likely have 50-70 year cycles and therefore these natural perturbations in climates and Pacific ecosystems should be considered for developing predictive models of fisheries productions and the managements. Despite the importance of natural perturbations for long-term predictions, one issue, whether synchronous centennial-variations in remote Pacific fisheries productions in response to climate variability exists in the past, has not been questioned, because there has never been long-term reconstructed time series in the western North Pacific. Here we present well preserved, fossil fish scale-based abundance record of Japanese sardine over the last 1100 years reconstructed from a seasonal anoxic basin in the western Seto Inland Sea near their spawning areas in the western North Pacific. A comparison of our record with other previous records clearly showed centennial-scale variations in abundance of sardine species off Japan, California, and Chile, characterized by centennial-scale alternations between low abundance regimes and high abundance regimes in which multidecadal fluctuations with large amplitudes occurred once or several times. High abundance regimes from 1450 to 1650 AD and after 1800 AD and a low abundance regime from 1650 to 1800 AD corresponded to low frequency patterns of PDO index reconstructed from tree-ring records in North America. This indicates that connections between Pacific climate variability and variations in Pacific marine ecosystems exist not only on multidecadal timescales but on centennial timescales. Three to four hundred-yr periodicity of the Pacific climate-ecosystem dynamics suggests possibility of a change into a century-long, low sardine abundance regime in the next 100 years.
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Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under Anthropogenic Forcing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liguori, Giovanni; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele
2018-01-01
Pacific decadal variability has strong impacts on the statistics of weather, atmosphere extremes, droughts, hurricanes, marine heatwaves, and marine ecosystems. Sea surface temperature (SST) observations show that the variance of the El Niño-like decadal variability has increased by 30% (1920-2015) with a stronger coupling between the major Pacific climate modes. Although we cannot attribute these trends to global climate change, the examination of 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LENS) forced with the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario (1920-2100) suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in Pacific decadal variance will emerge by 2020 in response to a more energetic North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)—a well-known El Niño precursor. The PMM is a key mechanism for energizing and coupling tropical and extratropical decadal variability. In the LENS, the increase in PMM variance is consistent with an intensification of the winds-evaporation-SST thermodynamic feedback that results from a warmer mean climate.
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Response of the tropical Pacific to abrupt climate change 8,200 years ago
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Atwood, A. R.; Battisti, D.; Bitz, C. M.; Sachs, J. P.
2017-12-01
The relatively stable climate of the Holocene epoch was punctuated by a period of large and abrupt climate change ca. 8,200 yr BP, when an outburst of glacial meltwater into the Labrador Sea drove large and abrupt climate changes across the globe. However, little is known about the response of the tropical Pacific to this event. We present the first evidence for large perturbations to the eastern tropical Pacific climate, based on sedimentary biomarker and hydrogen isotopic records from a freshwater lake in the Galápagos Islands. We inform these reconstructions with freshwater forcing simulations performed with the Community Climate System Model version 4. Together, the biomarker records and model simulations provide evidence for a mechanistic link between (1) a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the eastern equatorial Pacific and (2) decreased frequency and/or intensity of Eastern Pacific El Niño events during the 8,200 BP event. While climate theory and modeling studies support a southward shift of the ITCZ in response to a weakened AMOC, the dynamical drivers for the observed change in ENSO variability are less well developed. To explore these linkages, we perform simulations with an intermediate complexity model of the tropical Pacific. These results provide valuable insight into the controls of tropical Pacific climate variability and the mechanisms behind the global response to abrupt climate change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa
2013-04-01
Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jimenez, G.; Cole, J. E.; Vetter, L.; Thompson, D. M.; Tudhope, A. W.
2017-12-01
Climate reconstructions from sub-seasonally resolved corals have greatly enhanced our understanding of climate variability related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, few such records exist from the Eastern Pacific, which experiences the greatest ENSO-related variance in sea surface temperature (SST). Therefore, climate patterns and mechanisms in the region remain unclear, particularly on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Here, we present a new, bimonthly-resolved δ18O-SST reconstruction from a Darwin Island coral, in the northern Galápagos archipelago. Comparison with Sr/Ca data from the same coral demonstrates that δ18O values in the core dominantly track SST, as is expected in areas with low-magnitude sea surface salinity changes such as the Galápagos. Spanning 2015 to approximately 1800 CE, our record thus represents the longest sub-seasonally resolved SST reconstruction bridging the pre-industrial era to the present day in the Eastern Pacific. This time span and resolution is ideal for identifying climatic processes on a range of timescales: the presence of modern data allows us to calibrate the record using satellite datasets, while several decades of data preceding the onset of greenhouse warming enables comparison between natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. Together with other reconstructions from the region, we use the record to establish a baseline of (ENSO-related) Eastern Pacific interannual and decadal variability and assess evidence for climate emergence and trends. Preliminary evidence suggests increased decadal variability during the latter half of the twentieth century, as well as a secular warming trend of approximately 0.1°C/decade, in agreement with other Eastern Pacific coral records. Finally, we explore the applications of coral δ13C values in reconstructing regional upwelling. Our record contributes to constraining the pre- to post-industrial climate history of the Eastern Pacific and provides insight into natural versus forced climate variability in the region.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barcikowska, M. J.; Knutson, T. R.; Zhang, R.
2016-12-01
This study investigates mechanisms and global-scale climate impacts of multidecadal climate variability. Here we show, using observations and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 model control run, that multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may have a profound impact on the thermal- and hydro-climatic changes over the Pacific region. In our model-based analysis we propose a mechanism, which comprises a coupled ocean-atmosphere teleconnection, established through the atmospheric overturning circulation cell between the tropical North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. For example, warming SSTs over the tropical North Atlantic intensify local convection and reinforce subsidence, low-level divergence in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also accompanied with an intensification of trade winds, cooling and drying anomalies in the tropical central-east Pacific. The derived multidecadal changes, associated with the AMOC, contribute remarkably to the global temperature and precipitation variations. This highlights its potential predictive value. Shown here results suggest a possibility that: 1) recently observed slowdown in global warming may partly originate from internal variability, 2) climate system may be undergoing a transition to a cold AMO phase which could prolong the global slowdown.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
An, Wenling; Liu, Xiaohong; Hou, Shugui; Zeng, Xiaomin; Sun, Weizhen; Wang, Wenzhi; Wang, Yu; Xu, Guobao; Ren, Jiawen
2018-05-01
In this study, we investigated the potential influence of central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the unstable relationship between earlywood δ18O and climatic factors in the southwestern China from 1902 to 2005. The results show that the strength of the climate signals recorded in the earlywood δ18O series has declined since the late 1970s. This reduction in signal strength may have been caused by the changes in the local hydroclimate, which is associated with the increasing SSTs in the central Pacific Ocean over recent decades. Alongside these increasing SSTs in the central Pacific, southwestern China has experienced more droughts, as well as more severe droughts through the late spring and early summer during the central Pacific (CP) El Niño years than during the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño years in recent decades. This increased drought frequency may have weakened the response of earlywood δ18O to climate variables.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Murtugudde, R. G.; Wang, X.; Valsala, V.; Karnauskas, K. B.
2016-12-01
Tropical Pacific spans nearly 50% of the global tropics allowing to have its own mind in terms of climate variability and physical-biogeochemical interactions. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its flavors get much attention, it is fairly clear by now that any further improvements in ENSO prediction skills and reliability of global warming projections must begin to observe and represent bio-physical interactions in the climate and Earth System models. Coupled climate variability over the tropical Pacific has a global reach with its diurnal to decadal timescales being manifest in ecosystem and biogechemistry. Zonal and meridional contrasts in biogeochemistry across the tropical Pacific is closely related to seasonal variability, ENSO diversity and the PDO. Apparent dominance of ocean dynamic controls on biogeochemistry belies the potential biogeochemical feedbacks on ocean dynamics which may well explain some of the chronic biases in the state-of-the-art climate models. The east Pacific cold-tongue is the most productive open ocean region in the world and home to a unique physical-biogeochmical laboratory, viz., the Galapagos. The Galapagos islands not only control the coupled climate variability via their ability to terminate the equatorial undercurrent but also offer a clear example of a biological loophole in terms of their impact on local upwelling and an expanding penguin habitat in the face of global warming. The complex bio-physical interactions in the cold-tongue and their influence on climate predictions and projections require a holisti thinking on future observing systems. Tropical Pacific offers a natural laboratory for designing a robust and sustained physical-biogeochemical observation system that can effectively bridge climate predictions and projections into a unified framework for subseasonal to multidecadal timescales. Such a system will be a foundation for establishing similar systems over the rest of the World ocean to seemlessly merge climate predictions and projections with the need to constantly monitor climate impacts on marine resources. This talk will focus on the zonal contrasts of the ocean dynamics and biogechemistry across the tropical Pacific to make a case for integrated physical-biogeochemical observations for climate predictions and projections.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bagnato, Stefan; Linsley, Braddock K.; Howe, Stephen S.; Wellington, Gerard M.; Salinger, Jim
2005-06-01
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), a region of high rainfall, is a major feature of subtropical Southern Hemisphere climate and contributes to and interacts with circulation features across the Pacific, yet its past temporal variability and forcing remain only partially understood. Here we compare coral oxygen isotopic (δ18O) series (spanning A.D. 1997-1780 and A.D. 2001-1776) from two genera of hermatypic corals in Fiji, located within the SPCZ, to examine the fidelity of these corals in recording climate change and SPCZ interdecadal dynamics. One of these coral records is a new 225-year subannually resolved δ18O series from the massive coral Diploastreaheliopora. Diploastrea's use in climate reconstructions is still relatively new, but this coral has shown encouragingly similar interannual variability to Porites, the coral genus most commonly used in Pacific paleoclimate studies. In Fiji we observe that interdecadal δ18O variance is also similar in these two coral genera, and Diploastrea contains a larger-amplitude interdecadal signal that more closely tracks instrumental-based indices of Pacific interdecadal climate change and the SPCZ than Porites. Both coral δ18O series record greater interdecadal variability from ˜1880 to 1950, which is consistent with the observations of Folland et al. (2002), who reported higher variability in SPCZ position before 1945. These observations indicate that Diploastrea will likely provide a significant new source of long-term climate information from the SPCZ region.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.
This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less
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Climate Change in the Pacific Islands
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamnett, Michael P.
Climate change have been a major concern among Pacific Islanders since the late 1990s. During that period, Time Magazine featured a cover story that read: Say Goodbye to the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu from sea level rise. Since that time, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, UN and government agencies and academic researchers have been assessing the impacts of long-term climate change and seasonal to inter-annual climate variability on the Pacific Islands. The consensus is that long-term climate change will result in more extreme weather and tidal events including droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, and salt water inundation. Extreme weather events already occur in the Pacific Islands and they are patterned. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events impact rainfall, tropical cyclone and tidal patterns. In 2000, the first National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change concluded that long-term climate change will result in more El Niño events or a more El Niño like climate every year. The bad news is that will mean more natural disasters. The good news is that El Niño events can be predicted and people can prepare for them. The reallly bad news is that some Pacific Islands are already becoming uninhabitable because of erosion of land or the loss of fresh water from droughts and salt water intrusion. Many of the most vulnerable countries already overseas populations in New Zealand, the US, or larger Pacific Island countries. For some Pacific Islander abandoning their home countries will be their only option.
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1,500 Year Periodicity in Central Texas Moisture Source Variability Reconstructed from Speleothems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wong, C. I.; James, E. W.; Silver, M. M.; Banner, J. L.; Musgrove, M.
2014-12-01
Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. Presently, there are few high-resolution Holocene climate records for this region, which limits the assessment of precipitation variability during a relatively stable climatic interval that comprises the closest analogue to the modern climate state. To address this, we present speleothem growth rate and δ18O records from two central Texas caves that span the mid to late Holocene, and assess hypotheses about the climate processes that can account for similarity in the timing and periodicity of variability with other regional and global records. A key finding is the independent variation of speleothem growth rate and δ18O values, suggesting the decoupling of moisture amount and source. This decoupling likely occurs because i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and ii) speleothem δ18O variations reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific- vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount. Furthermore, we document a 1,500-year periodicity in δ18O values that is consistent with variability in the percent of hematite-stained grains in North Atlantic sediments, North Pacific SSTs, and El Nino events preserved in an Ecuadorian lake. Previous modeling experiments and analysis of observational data delineate the coupled atmospheric-ocean processes that can account for the coincidence of such variability in climate archives across the northern hemisphere. Reduction of the thermohaline circulation results in North Atlantic cooling, which translates to cooler North Pacific SSTs. The resulting reduction of the meridional SST gradient in the Pacific weakens the air-sea coupling that modulates ENSO activity, resulting in faster growth of interannual anomalies and larger mature El Niño relative to La Niña events. The asymmetrically enhanced ENSO variability can account for a greater portion of Pacific-derived moisture reflected by speleothem δ18O values.
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Model tropical Atlantic biases underpin diminished Pacific decadal variability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McGregor, Shayne; Stuecker, Malte F.; Kajtar, Jules B.; England, Matthew H.; Collins, Mat
2018-06-01
Pacific trade winds have displayed unprecedented strengthening in recent decades1. This strengthening has been associated with east Pacific sea surface cooling2 and the early twenty-first-century slowdown in global surface warming2,3, amongst a host of other substantial impacts4-9. Although some climate models produce the timing of these recently observed trends10, they all fail to produce the trend magnitude2,11,12. This may in part be related to the apparent model underrepresentation of low-frequency Pacific Ocean variability and decadal wind trends2,11-13 or be due to a misrepresentation of a forced response1,14-16 or a combination of both. An increasingly prominent connection between the Pacific and Atlantic basins has been identified as a key driver of this strengthening of the Pacific trade winds12,17-20. Here we use targeted climate model experiments to show that combining the recent Atlantic warming trend with the typical climate model bias leads to a substantially underestimated response for the Pacific Ocean wind and surface temperature. The underestimation largely stems from a reduction and eastward shift of the atmospheric heating response to the tropical Atlantic warming trend. This result suggests that the recent Pacific trends and model decadal variability may be better captured by models with improved mean-state climatologies.
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Role of internal variability in recent decadal to multidecadal tropical Pacific climate changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bordbar, Mohammad Hadi; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun
2017-05-01
While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.
Plain Language SummaryWhile the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds. Here we show that climate models simulate a high level of internal variability, so that the recent changes in the tropical Pacific could still be due to natural processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP52A..08C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP52A..08C"><span>Two Centuries of Climate Variability From a Gulf of Papua Coral Confirms a Coherent, Widespread Multidecadal Signal</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cole, J. E.; Lough, J.; Reed, E. V.; Schrag, D. P.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The Indo-Pacific warm pool is intimately involved with large-scale climate variability on seasonal to secular time scales. The lack of long instrumental observations in this region has motivated paleoclimatic analyses using diverse proxy data sources. We present here new multicentury paleoclimate records from a Gulf of Papua coral that capture past variability with a Pacific-wide signature. We have developed stable isotope, Sr/Ca, skeletal density, and luminescence data from a coral core recovered at Bramble Cay, Australia (9°S, 144°E). The geochemical records span CE 1775-1993 and are dominated by low-frequency (decade-century scale) variability that is consistent with records from other proxies in the same region, and with other coral records from far-flung sites across the southwest Pacific. Unlike in many Pacific coral records, we observe no strong trend towards warmer conditions. Although skeletal density bands are clearly visible, they show inconsistent seasonal phasing with the geochemical tracers of sea surface temperature (SST; Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope content), and skeletal density does not correlate with these tracers on longer time scales. In this coral, density banding must be controlled by a more complex mix of internal and/or external factors. Luminescent banding and reconstructed salinity provide similar histories, suggesting a common hydroclimatic signal with significant variability at periods of decades and longer. The strong low-frequency behavior in these new climate records of SST and hydroclimate, from a remote region of the Indo-Pacific, confirms an important source of internal climate variability, on a poorly documented time scale, from a region with far-reaching climatic importance.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2487W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.2487W"><span>Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC32B..01P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC32B..01P"><span>Inability of CMIP5 Climate Models to Simulate Recent Multi-decadal Climate Change in the Tropical Pacific.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Power, S.; Delage, F.; Kociuba, G.; Wang, G.; Smith, I.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Observed 15-year surface temperature trends beginning 1998 or later have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in models and the implications for global warming generally. Here we analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP5 climate models. All of the models simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This stark difference cannot be fully explained by observed, internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. We also show that CMIP5 models are not able to simulate the magnitude of the strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the past thirty years. Some of the reasons for these major shortcomings in the ability of models to simulate multi-decadal variability in the Pacific, and the impact these findings have on our confidence in global 21st century projections, will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRG..121.3131V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRG..121.3131V"><span>Environmental drivers of mesozooplankton biomass variability in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Valencia, Bellineth; Landry, Michael R.; Décima, Moira; Hannides, Cecelia C. S.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The environmental drivers of zooplankton variability are poorly explored for the central subtropical Pacific, where a direct bottom-up food-web connection is suggested by increasing trends in primary production and mesozooplankton biomass at station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat Assessment) over the past 20 years (1994-2013). Here we use generalized additive models (GAMs) to investigate how these trends relate to the major modes of North Pacific climate variability. A GAM based on monthly mean data explains 43% of the temporal variability in mesozooplankton biomass with significant influences from primary productivity (PP), sea surface temperature (SST), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and El Niño. This result mainly reflects the seasonal plankton cycle at station ALOHA, in which increasing light and SST lead to enhanced nitrogen fixation, productivity, and zooplankton biomass during summertime. Based on annual mean data, GAMs for two variables suggest that PP and 3-4 year lagged NPGO individually account for 40% of zooplankton variability. The full annual mean GAM explains 70% of variability of zooplankton biomass with significant influences from PP, 4 year lagged NPGO, and 4 year lagged Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The NPGO affects wind stress, sea surface height, and subtropical gyre circulation and has been linked to mideuphotic zone anomalies in salinity and PP at station ALOHA. Our study broadens the known impact of this climate mode on plankton dynamics in the North Pacific. While lagged transport effects are also evident for subtropical waters, our study highlights a strong coupling between zooplankton fluctuations and PP, which differs from the transport-dominated climate influences that have been found for North Pacific boundary currents.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23600253','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23600253"><span>Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4410635','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4410635"><span>Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation. PMID:25897996</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25897996','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25897996"><span>Skilful multi-year predictions of tropical trans-basin climate variability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu; Timmermann, Axel; Luo, Jing-Jia; Mochizuki, Takashi; Kimoto, Masahide; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ishii, Masayoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping; Jin, Fei-Fei</p> <p>2015-04-21</p> <p>Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies influence the atmospheric circulation, impacting climate far beyond the tropics. The predictability of the corresponding atmospheric signals is typically limited to less than 1 year lead time. Here we present observational and modelling evidence for multi-year predictability of coherent trans-basin climate variations that are characterized by a zonal seesaw in tropical sea surface temperature and sea-level pressure between the Pacific and the other two ocean basins. State-of-the-art climate model forecasts initialized from a realistic ocean state show that the low-frequency trans-basin climate variability, which explains part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation flavours, can be predicted up to 3 years ahead, thus exceeding the predictive skill of current tropical climate forecasts for natural variability. This low-frequency variability emerges from the synchronization of ocean anomalies in all basins via global reorganizations of the atmospheric Walker Circulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000032186&hterms=climate+change+evidence&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange%2Bevidence','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000032186&hterms=climate+change+evidence&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange%2Bevidence"><span>Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and Its Association with the Asian-Pacific Climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Interannual variability of the wintertime East Asian westerly jet stream and the linkage between this variability and the Asian-Pacific climate are investigated. The study emphasizes on the variability of the jet core and its association with the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, upper tropospheric wave patterns, and the teleconnection of the jet with other climate systems. The relationship between the jet and North Pacific sea surface temperature pattern (SST) is also explored. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, NASA GISS surface temperature, NASA GEOS reanalysis, NOAA reconstructed SST, GPCP precipitation, and NOAA snow cover data sets are analyzed in this study. An index of the East Asian jet has been defined by the December-February means of the 200 mb zonal winds that are averaged within a box enclosing the jet maximum, which shifts only moderately from one year to another especially in the south-north direction. The jet links to a teleconnection pattern whose major climate anomalies appear over the Asian continent and western Pacific (west of the dateline). This pattern differs distinctly from the teleconnection pattern associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes the Pacific/North American pattern to the east of the dateline. A strong jet is accompanied clearly by an increase in the intensity of the atmospheric circulation over Asia and the Pacific. In particular, the winter monsoon strengthens over East Asia, leading to cold climate in the region, and convection intensifies over the tropical Asia-Australia sector. Changes in the jet are associated with broad-scale modification in the upper tropospheric wave patterns that leads to downstream climate anomalies over the eastern Pacific. Through this downstream influence, the East Asian jet causes climate signals in North America as well. A strong jet gives rise to warming and less snow cover in the western United States but reverse climate anomalies in the eastern part of the country, although these signals are relatively weaker than the jet-related anomalies in East Asia. There is a strong association between the East Asian jet and the North Pacific SST (NPSST). A strong jet is accompanied by a cooling in the extratropical Pacific and a warming in the tropical-subtropical Pacific. Evidence also indicates that the extratropical NPSST pattern plays a role in modulating the intensity of the jet stream. ENSO, the jet, and the NPSST are mutually interactive on certain time scales and such an interaction links closely to the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American regions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRC..123.1978R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRC..123.1978R"><span>Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît; King, Matt A.; Church, John A.; Bos, Machiel S.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>Recent studies have identified climatic drivers of the east-west see-saw of Pacific Ocean satellite altimetry era sea level trends and a number of sea-level trend and acceleration assessments attempt to account for this. We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally-correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time-of-emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea-level trend studies often advocate the use of auto-regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non-AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over- or under-estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo-Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long-duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south-west and north-east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea-level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/20445','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/20445"><span>Fluvial processes in Puget Sound rivers and the Pacific Northwest [Chapter 3</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>John M. Buffington; Richard D. Woodsmith; Derek B. Booth; David R. Montgomery</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>The variability of topography, geology, climate; vegetation, and land use in the Pacific Northwest creates considerable spatial and temporal variability of fluvial processes and reach-scale channel type. Here we identify process domains of typical Pacific Northwest watersheds and examine local physiographic and geologic controls on channel processes and response...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70159431','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70159431"><span>Holocene variability in the intensity of wind-gap upwelling in the tropical eastern Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Toth, Lauren T.; Aronson, Richard B.; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Wind-driven upwelling in Pacific Panamá is a significant source of oceanographic variability in the tropical eastern Pacific. This upwelling system provides a critical teleconnection between the Atlantic and tropical Pacific that may impact climate variability on a global scale. Despite its importance to oceanographic circulation, ecology, and climate, little is known about the long-term stability of the Panamanian upwelling system or its interaction with climatic forcing on millennial time scales. Using a combination of radiocarbon and U-series dating of fossil corals collected in cores from five sites across Pacific Panamá, we reconstructed the local radiocarbon reservoir correction, ΔR, from ~6750 cal B.P. to present. Because the ΔR of shallow-water environments is elevated by upwelling, our data set represents a millennial-scale record of spatial and temporal variability of the Panamanian upwelling system. The general oceanographic gradient from relatively strong upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá to weak-to-absent upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí was present throughout our record; however, the intensity of upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá varied significantly through time. Our reconstructions suggest that upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá is weak at present; however, the middle Holocene was characterized by periods of enhanced upwelling, with the most intense upwelling occurring just after of a regional shutdown in the development of reefs at ~4100 cal B.P. Comparisons with regional climate proxies suggest that, whereas the Intertropical Convergence Zone is the primary control on modern upwelling in Pacific Panamá, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation drove the millennial-scale variability of upwelling during the Holocene.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1311771','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1311771"><span>Final Technical Report: The effects of climate, forest age, and disturbance history on carbon and water processes at AmeriFlux sites across gradients in Pacific Northwest forests</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Law, Beverly E.</p> <p></p> <p>Investigate the effects of disturbance and climate variables on processes controlling carbon and water processes at AmeriFlux cluster sites in semi-arid and mesic forests in Oregon. The observations were made at three existing and productive AmeriFlux research sites that represent climate and disturbance gradients as a natural experiment of the influence of climatic and hydrologic variability on carbon sequestration and resulting atmospheric CO 2 feedback that includes anomalies during the warm/ dry phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP23C..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP23C..01M"><span>A Review of Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Possible Mechanisms and Surface Climate Signatures in the Pacific Sector</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mantua, N. J.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>Many investigators have examined historical surface climate records from the Pacific sector and identified a relatively small number of spatial patterns varying at decadal to interdecadal time scales. "Pacific Decadal Variability" (PDV) is a label that has been used to describe this family of climate variations. Some patterns of PDV are contained completely within the northern extratropics, while others have signatures throughout the Pacific hemisphere on both sides of the equator. Mechanisms for observed patterns of PDV are not yet known, though a wide variety of hypotheses have been proposed. Various ocean-atmosphere mechanisms for PDV are contained within the extratropics, others within the tropics, while others involve tropical-extratropical interactions. Some investigators have proposed external forcing (solar, lunar, or volcanic) as potentially important for driving PDV. A relatively simple hypothesis couples ENSO forcing with upper ocean heat storage for extratropical PDV, and it suggests PDV predictability may be limited to ~2 year lead times. Paleo-PDV reconstructions have been based on materials throughout the Pacific sector using such things as extratropical tree-rings, tropical corals, extratropical clam shell growth rings, and ice cores. These different proxy records have generally provided different perspectives on paleo-PDV behavior.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active"><span>2</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_2 --> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40.2296P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013GeoRL..40.2296P"><span>Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70045529','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70045529"><span>Natural climate variability and teleconnections to precipitation over the Pacific-North American region in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Polade, Suraj D.; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Pierce, David W.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Natural climate variability will continue to be an important aspect of future regional climate even in the midst of long-term secular changes. Consequently, the ability of climate models to simulate major natural modes of variability and their teleconnections provides important context for the interpretation and use of climate change projections. Comparisons reported here indicate that the CMIP5 generation of global climate models shows significant improvements in simulations of key Pacific climate mode and their teleconnections to North America compared to earlier CMIP3 simulations. The performance of 14 models with simulations in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives are assessed using singular value decomposition analysis of simulated and observed winter Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and concurrent precipitation over the contiguous United States and northwestern Mexico. Most of the models reproduce basic features of the key natural mode and their teleconnections, albeit with notable regional deviations from observations in both SST and precipitation. Increasing horizontal resolution in the CMIP5 simulations is an important, but not a necessary, factor in the improvement from CMIP3 to CMIP5.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.2971U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.2971U"><span>Extremes in East African hydroclimate and links to Indo-Pacific variability on interannual to decadal timescales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kulüke, Marco; Tierney, Jessica E.</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region's two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model, the dominant low-frequency signal seen in the observations in the Indo-Pacific is not well-represented as it instead exhibits overly strong variability on subdecadal timescales. The overly strong ENSO-teleconnection likely contributes to the overestimated role of the short rains in the seasonal cycle in the model compared to observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918904Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918904Z"><span>Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/24572','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/24572"><span>Spatial variability in forest growthclimate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Jill M. Nakawatase; David L. Peterson</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>For many Pacific Northwest forests, little is known about the spatial and temporal variability in tree growth - climate relationships, yet it is this information that is needed to predict how forests will respond to future climatic change. We studied the effects of climatic variability on forest growth at 74 plots in the western and northeastern Olympic Mountains....</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ChJOL..35...23Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ChJOL..35...23Y"><span>Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yuan, Dongliang; Xu, Peng; Xu, Tengfei</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>An experiment using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatCo...711719G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatCo...711719G"><span>Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Griffiths, Michael L.; Kimbrough, Alena K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Cole, Julia E.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Cook, Benjamin I.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.</p> <p>2016-06-01</p> <p>Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between ~1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between ~1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41B1015W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41B1015W"><span>Interannual to Decadal SST Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, G.; Newman, M.; Han, W.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Indian Ocean has received increasing attention in recent years for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, due mainly to the close interdependence of the climate variation within the Tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the internal sea surface temperature (SST) variability within the Indian Ocean has not been studied extensively on longer time scales. In this presentation we will show analysis of the interannual to decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) results. We also compare the decoupled Indian Ocean SST variability from the Pacific against fully coupled one based on LIM integrations, to test the factors influence the features of the leading SST modes in the Indian Ocean. The result shows the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode, which is strongly related to global averaged SST variability, passively responses to the Pacific variation. Without tropical Indo-Pacific coupling interaction, the intensity of IOB significantly decreases by 80%. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode demonstrates its independence from the Pacific SST variability since the IOD does not change its long-term characteristics at all without inter-basin interactions. The overall SSTA variance decreases significantly in the Tropical Indian Ocean in the coupling restricted LIM runs, especially when the one-way impact from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean is turned off, suggesting that most of the variability in the Indian Ocean comes from the Pacific influence. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean could also transport anomalies to the Pacific, making the interaction a complete two-way process.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JMetR..31...73H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JMetR..31...73H"><span>Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Huang, Bohua; Zhu, Jieshun; Ren, Hong-Li</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979-1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO34D3105A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO34D3105A"><span>Variability of Equatorward Transport in the Tropical Southwestern Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alberty, M. S.; Sprintall, J.; MacKinnon, J. A.; Cravatte, S. E.; Ganachaud, A. S.; Germineaud, C.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Situated in the Pacific warm pool, the Solomon Sea is a semi-enclosed sea containing a system of low latitude Western boundary currents that serve as the primary source water for the Equatorial Undercurrent. The variability of equatorward heat and volume transport through the Solomon Sea has the capability to modulate regional and basin-scale climate processes, yet there are few and synoptic observations of these fluxes. Here we present the mean and variability of heat and volume transport out of the Solomon Sea observed during the MoorSPICE experiment. MoorSPICE is the Solomon Sea mooring-based observational component of the Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment (SPICE), an international research project working to observe and improve our understanding of the southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and climate. Arrays of moorings were deployed in the outflow channels of the Solomon Sea for July 2012 until March 2014 to resolve the temperature and velocity fields in each strait. In particular we will discuss the phasing of the observed transport variability for each channel compared to that of the satellite-observed monsoonal wind forcing and annual cycle of the mesoscale eddy field.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000050468','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000050468"><span>The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific-American Climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>The upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region during winter. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet stream is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation especially over East Asia. The variabilities of the EAJ on these time scales have been relatively well documented. It has also been understood since decades ago that the interannual. variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation. However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the EAJ and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the EAJ and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet stream linked to the non-ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern?</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7900G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7900G"><span>Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Ralph, F. Martin; Lavers, David A.; Rutz, Jonathan J.</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an atmospheric reanalysis, yielding an extensive catalog of ARs land-falling along the west coast of North America during 1948-2017. This catalog provides a large array of variables that can be used to examine AR cases and their climate-scale variability in exceptional detail. The new record of AR activity, as presented, validated and examined here, provides a perspective on the seasonal cycle and the interannual-interdecadal variability of AR activity affecting the hydroclimate of western North America. Importantly, AR intensity does not exactly follow the climatological pattern of AR frequency. Strong links to hydroclimate are demonstrated using a high-resolution precipitation data set. We describe the seasonal progression of AR activity and diagnose linkages with climate variability expressed in Pacific sea surface temperatures, revealing links to Pacific decadal variability, recent regional anomalies, as well as a generally rising trend in land-falling AR activity. The latter trend is consistent with a long-term increase in vapor transport from the warming North Pacific onto the North American continent. The new catalog provides unprecedented opportunities to study the climate-scale behavior and predictability of ARs affecting western North America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO33C..07Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO33C..07Z"><span>Long-term variabilities of meridional geostrophic volumn transport in North Pacific Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhou, H.; Yuan, D.; Dewar, W. K.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>The meridional geostrophic volumn transport (MGVT) by the ocean plays a very important role in the climatic water mass and heat balance because of its large heat capacity which enables the oceans to store the large amount of radiation received in the summer and to release it in winter. Better understanding of the role of the oceans in climate variability is essential to assess the likely range of future climate fluctuations. In the last century the North Pacific Ocean experienced considerable climate variability, especially on decadal time scale. Some studies have shown that the North Pacific Ocean is the origin of North Pacific multidecadal variability (Latif and Barnett, 1994; Barnett et al., 1999). These fluctuations were associated with large anomalies in sea level, temperature, storminess and rainfall, the heat transport and other extremes are changing as well. If the MGVT of the ocean is well-determined, it can be used as a test of the validity of numerical, global climate models. In this paper, we investigate the long-term variability of the MGVT in North Pacific ocean based on 55 years long global ocean heat and salt content data (Levitus et al., 2012). Very clear inter-decadal variations can be seen in tropical , subtropical and subpolar regions of North Pacific Ocean. There are very consistent variations between the MGVT anomalies and the inter-decadal pacific oscillation (IPO) index in the tropical gyre with cold phase of IPO corresponding to negative MGVT anomalies and warm phase corresponding to positive MGVT anomalies. The subtropical gyre shows more complex variations, and the subpolar gyre shows a negative MGVT anomaly before late 1970's and a positive anomaly after that time. The geostrophic velocities of North Pacific Ocean show significantly different anomalies during the two IPO cold phases of 1955-1976 and 1999 to present, which suggests a different mechanism of the two cold phases. The long term variations of Sverdrup transport compares well with that of the MGVT in the basin of 8-10N and north of 35N, but the two compares poorly or even reversed in the middle part of the basin. A reduced gravity model is used to investigate the mechanisms of the above variations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3411H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3411H"><span>Long-term Internal Variability of the Tropical Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean System</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hadi Bordbar, Mohammad; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability. Further, such variability strengthens in response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, which may further hinder detection of anthropogenic climate signals in that region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..123C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..123C"><span>Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chand, Savin S.; Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, Hua; Walsh, Kevin J. E.</p> <p>2017-02-01</p> <p>The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives substantial variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the world. However, it remains uncertain how the projected future changes in ENSO under greenhouse warming will affect TC activity, apart from an expectation that the overall frequency of TCs is likely to decrease for most ocean basins. Here we show robust changes in ENSO-driven variability in TC occurrence by the late twenty-first century. In particular, we show that TCs become more frequent (~20-40%) during future-climate El Niño events compared with present-climate El Niño events--and less frequent during future-climate La Niña events--around a group of small island nations (for example, Fiji, Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Hawaii) in the Pacific. We examine TCs across 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 database, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The 12 most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on El Niño-driven changes in future-climate large-scale environmental conditions that modulate development of TCs over the off-equatorial western Pacific and the central North Pacific regions. These results have important implications for climate change and adaptation pathways for the vulnerable Pacific island nations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18543633','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18543633"><span>Bottom-up and climatic forcing on the worldwide population of leatherback turtles.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Saba, Vincent S; Spotila, James R; Chavez, Francisco P; Musick, John A</p> <p>2008-05-01</p> <p>Nesting populations of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans are increasing or stable while those in the Pacific are declining. It has been suggested that leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific may be resource limited due to environmental variability derived from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but this has yet to be tested. Here we explored bottom-up forcing and the responding reproductive output of nesting leatherbacks worldwide. We achieved this through an extensive review of leatherback nesting and migration data and by analyzing the spatial, temporal, and quantitative nature of resources as indicated by net primary production at post-nesting female migration and foraging areas. Leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific were the smallest in body size and had the lowest reproductive output due to less productive and inconsistent resources within their migration and foraging areas. This derived from natural interannual and multidecadal climate variability together with an influence of anthropogenic climate warming that is possibly affecting these natural cycles. The reproductive output of leatherbacks in the Atlantic and western Indian Oceans was nearly twice that of turtles in the eastern Pacific. The inconsistent nature of the Pacific Ocean may also render western Pacific leatherbacks susceptible to a more variable reproductive output; however, it appears that egg harvesting on nesting beaches is their major threat. We suggest that the eastern Pacific leatherback population is more sensitive to anthropogenic mortality due to recruitment rates that are lower and more variable, thus accounting for much of the population differences compared to Atlantic and western Indian turtles.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFMPP62B..03F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUFMPP62B..03F"><span>Long-term Records of Pacific Salmon Abundance From Sediment Core Analysis: Relationships to Past Climatic Change, and Implications for the Future</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Finney, B.</p> <p>2002-12-01</p> <p>The response of Pacific salmon to future climatic change is uncertain, but will have large impacts on the economy, culture and ecology of the North Pacific Rim. Relationships between sockeye salmon populations and climatic change can be determined by analyzing sediment cores from lakes where sockeye return to spawn. Sockeye salmon return to their natal lake system to spawn and subsequently die following 2 - 3 years of feeding in the North Pacific Ocean. Sockeye salmon abundance can be reconstructed from stable nitrogen isotope analysis of lake sediment cores as returning sockeye transport significant quantities of N, relatively enriched in N-15, from the ocean to freshwater systems. Temporal changes in the input of salmon-derived N, and hence salmon abundance, can be quantified through downcore analysis of N isotopes. Reconstructions of sockeye salmon abundance from lakes in several regions of Alaska show similar temporal patterns, with variability occurring on decadal to millennial timescales. Over the past 2000 years, shifts in sockeye salmon abundance far exceed the historical decadal-scale variability. A decline occurred from about 100 BC - 800 AD, but salmon were consistently more abundant 1200 - 1900 AD. Declines since 1900 AD coincide with the period of extensive commercial fishing. Correspondence between these records and paleoclimatic data suggest that changes in salmon abundance are related to large scale climatic changes over the North Pacific. For example, the increase in salmon abundance c.a. 1200 AD corresponds to a period of glacial advance in southern Alaska, and a shift to drier conditions in western North America. Although the regionally coherent patterns in reconstructed salmon abundance are consistent with the hypothesis that climate is an important driver, the relationships do not always follow patterns observed in the 20th century. A main feature of recorded climate variability in this region is the alternation between multi-decade periods of above and below average strength of the Aleutian Low pressure system. During periods of stronger low pressure, sea surface temperature anomalies are warm in the northeast Pacific and cool in the central and northwest Pacific, a condition referred to as the positive phase of the Pacific Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO). Historically, during positive phases of the PDO Alaska salmon abundance is generally high. Consistent with this pattern, records of reconstructed sockeye salmon generally show higher abundance during warm periods over the past 300 years. However, the long-term trend suggests generally higher abundance during the cooler Little Ice Age, which southern Alaska glacial records suggest occurred between about 1200 - 1900 AD. The apparent complexity of salmon-climate relationships may be due to several factors. Long-term paleoclimate records from this region suggest additional modes of North Pacific climate variability, relative to the PDO. In addition, data on primary and secondary production in the Northeast Pacific Ocean indicates that climatic forcing has a direct impact on lower trophic levels, which subsequently affects salmon production. Thus records of ocean productivity, which are currently unavailable, may provide a mechanistic linkage between climate change and salmon abundance. The long-term perspective provided by the paleodata suggest that historical observations provide a limited understanding of how Pacific salmon respond to climatic change, and point to important areas of research necessary to better predict future responses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMOS51A1975L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMOS51A1975L"><span>Tropical Atlantic Impacts on the Decadal Climate Variability of the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. In particular, several recent works indicate that the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) may contribute to the climate variability over the equatorial Pacific. Inspired by these studies, our work aims at investigating the impact of the tropical Atlantic on the entire tropical climate system, and uncovering the physical dynamics under these tropical teleconnections. We first performed a 'pacemaker' simulation by restoring the satellite era tropical Atlantic SST changes in a fully coupled model - the CESM1. Results reveal that the Atlantic warming heats the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific, enhances the Walker circulation and drives the subsurface Pacific to a La Niña mode, contributing to 60-70% of the above tropical changes in the past 30 years. The same pan-tropical teleconnections have been validated by the statistics of observations and 106 CMIP5 control simulations. We then used a hierarchy of atmospheric and oceanic models with different complexities, to single out the roles of atmospheric dynamics, atmosphere-ocean fluxes, and oceanic dynamics in these teleconnections. With these simulations we established a two-step mechanism as shown in the schematic figure: 1) Atlantic warming generates an atmospheric deep convection and induces easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves, and westerly wind anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution. This circulation changes warms the Indo-Western Pacific and cools the Eastern Pacific with the wind-evaporation-SST effect, forming a temperature gradient over the Indo-Pacific basins. 2) The temperature gradient further generates a secondary atmospheric deep convection, which reinforces the easterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and enhances the Walker circulation, triggering the Pacific to a La Niña mode with Bjerknes ocean dynamical feedback. This mechanism contributes to the understanding of the global decadal climate variability and predictability. In particular, Atlantic contributes to the Eastern Pacific cooling, which is considered as an important source of the recent global warming hiatus.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP31E..02J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP31E..02J"><span>Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5819482','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5819482"><span>Inter-comparison of multiple statistically downscaled climate datasets for the Pacific Northwest, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Jiang, Yueyang; Kim, John B.; Still, Christopher J.; Kerns, Becky K.; Kline, Jeffrey D.; Cunningham, Patrick G.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>Statistically downscaled climate data have been widely used to explore possible impacts of climate change in various fields of study. Although many studies have focused on characterizing differences in the downscaling methods, few studies have evaluated actual downscaled datasets being distributed publicly. Spatially focusing on the Pacific Northwest, we compare five statistically downscaled climate datasets distributed publicly in the US: ClimateNA, NASA NEX-DCP30, MACAv2-METDATA, MACAv2-LIVNEH and WorldClim. We compare the downscaled projections of climate change, and the associated observational data used as training data for downscaling. We map and quantify the variability among the datasets and characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of agreement and disagreement among the datasets. Pair-wise comparisons of datasets identify the coast and high-elevation areas as areas of disagreement for temperature. For precipitation, high-elevation areas, rainshadows and the dry, eastern portion of the study area have high dissimilarity among the datasets. By spatially aggregating the variability measures into watersheds, we develop guidance for selecting datasets within the Pacific Northwest climate change impact studies. PMID:29461513</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active"><span>3</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_3 --> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29461513','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29461513"><span>Inter-comparison of multiple statistically downscaled climate datasets for the Pacific Northwest, USA.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Jiang, Yueyang; Kim, John B; Still, Christopher J; Kerns, Becky K; Kline, Jeffrey D; Cunningham, Patrick G</p> <p>2018-02-20</p> <p>Statistically downscaled climate data have been widely used to explore possible impacts of climate change in various fields of study. Although many studies have focused on characterizing differences in the downscaling methods, few studies have evaluated actual downscaled datasets being distributed publicly. Spatially focusing on the Pacific Northwest, we compare five statistically downscaled climate datasets distributed publicly in the US: ClimateNA, NASA NEX-DCP30, MACAv2-METDATA, MACAv2-LIVNEH and WorldClim. We compare the downscaled projections of climate change, and the associated observational data used as training data for downscaling. We map and quantify the variability among the datasets and characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of agreement and disagreement among the datasets. Pair-wise comparisons of datasets identify the coast and high-elevation areas as areas of disagreement for temperature. For precipitation, high-elevation areas, rainshadows and the dry, eastern portion of the study area have high dissimilarity among the datasets. By spatially aggregating the variability measures into watersheds, we develop guidance for selecting datasets within the Pacific Northwest climate change impact studies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040082190&hterms=Asian&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3DAsian','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040082190&hterms=Asian&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3DAsian"><span>The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lau, William K. M.; Wang, H.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMNH51B1950B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMNH51B1950B"><span>Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000115609','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000115609"><span>Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70020512','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70020512"><span>Climate variations and changes in mass of three glaciers in western North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hodge, S.M.; Trabant, D.C.; Krimmel, R.M.; Heinrichs, T.A.; March, R.S.; Josberger, E.G.</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>Time series of net and seasonal mass balances for three glaciers in western North America, one in the Pacific Northwest and two in Alaska, show various relationships to Pacific hemisphere climate indexes. During the winter season the two coastal, maritime-regime glaciers, over 2000 km apart, are affected almost identically, albeit inversely, by atmospheric and oceanic conditions in both the tropical and North Pacific. The two Alaska glaciers, only 350 km apart, have almost no coherence. Lag correlations show that in winter the maritime glaciers are influenced by concurrent conditions in the North Pacific, but by conditions in the tropical Pacific in August-September of the prior northern summer. The winter balance variations contain interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation variability superimposed on North Pacific interdecadal variability; the interdecadal 1976-77 climate regime shift is clearly evident. The summer balances and the continental-regime glacier have a general lack of correlations, with no clear, strong, consistent patterns, probably a result of being influenced more by local processes or by circulation patterns outside the Pacific Ocean basin. The results show the Pacific Northwest is strongly influenced by conditions in the tropical Pacific, but that this teleconnection has broken down in recent years, starting in 1989. During the seven years since then (1989-95), all three glaciers have shown, for the first time, coherent signals, which were net mass loss at the highest rate in the entire record. The authors' results agree with those of other recent studies that suggest these recent years are unusual and may be a signature of climate warming.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AdAtS..22..915Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AdAtS..22..915Z"><span>South Asian high and Asian-Pacific-American climate teleconnection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Peiqun; Song, Yang; Kousky, Vernon E.</p> <p>2005-11-01</p> <p>Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high (SAH), which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high (SWPH), the mid-Pacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...79K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...79K"><span>Climate extremes in the Pacific: improving seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures to improve resilience</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Spillman, C. M.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Climate change and climate extremes have a major impact on Australia and Pacific Island countries. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures, the first being the most destructive events for terrestrial systems, while the latter has the potential to devastate ocean ecosystems through coral bleaching. As a practical response to climate change, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program (PACCSAP), we are developing enhanced web-based information tools for providing seasonal forecasts for climatic extremes in the Western Pacific. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas. Interannual variability in the intensity and distribution of tropical cyclones is large, and presently greater than any trends that are ascribable to climate change. In the warming environment, predicting tropical cyclone occurrence based on historical relationships, with predictors such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now frequently lying outside of the range of past variability meaning that it is not possible to find historical analogues for the seasonal conditions often faced by Pacific countries. Elevated SSTs are the primary trigger for mass coral bleaching events, which can lead to widespread damage and mortality on reef systems. Degraded coral reefs present many problems, including long-term loss of tourism and potential loss or degradation of fisheries. The monitoring and prediction of thermal stress events enables the support of a range of adaptive and management activities that could improve reef resilience to extreme conditions. Using the climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia), we aim to improve accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and extreme SSTs for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of Australia and Pacific Island Countries under climate change. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted with the support of the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GSL.....5....3F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GSL.....5....3F"><span>The Indonesian throughflow, its variability and centennial change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Feng, Ming; Zhang, Ningning; Liu, Qinyan; Wijffels, Susan</p> <p>2018-12-01</p> <p>The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is an important component of the upper cell of the global overturning circulation that provides a low-latitude pathway for warm, fresh waters from the Pacific to enter the Indian Ocean. Variability and changes of the ITF have significant impacts on Indo-Pacific oceanography and global climate. In this paper, the observed features of the ITF and its interannual to decadal variability are reviewed, and processes that influence the centennial change of the ITF under the influence of the global warming are discussed. The ITF flows across a region that comprises the intersection of two ocean waveguides—those of the equatorial Pacific and equatorial Indian Ocean. The ITF geostrophic transport is stronger during La Niñas and weaker during El Niños due to the influences through the Pacific waveguide. The Indian Ocean wind variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in many years offsets the Pacific ENSO influences on the ITF geostrophic transport during the developing and mature phases of El Niño and La Niña through the Indian Ocean waveguide, due to the co-varying IOD variability with ENSO. Decadal and multi-decadal changes of the geostrophic ITF transport have been revealed: there was a weakening change from the mid-1970s climate regime shift followed by a strengthening trend of about 1Sv every 10 year during 1984-2013. These decadal changes are mostly due to the ITF responses to decadal variations of the trade winds in the Pacific. Thus, Godfrey's Island Rule, as well as other ITF proxies, appears to be able to quantify decadal variations of the ITF. Climate models project a weakening trend of the ITF under the global warming. Both climate models and downscaled ocean model show that this ITF weakening is not directly associated with the changes of the trade winds in the Pacific into the future, and the reduction of deep upwelling in the Pacific basin is mainly responsible for the ITF weakening. There is a need to amend the Island Rule to take into account the contributions from the overturning circulation which the current ITF proxies fail to capture. The implication of a weakened ITF on the Indo-Pacific Ocean circulation still needs to be assessed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ClDy...45.2033C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ClDy...45.2033C"><span>Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53D2279K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53D2279K"><span>Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kucharski, F.; Sun, C.; Li, J.; Jin, F. F.; Kang, I. S.; Ding, R.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5504304','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5504304"><span>Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO–WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind–evaporation–SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST–sea level pressure–cloud–longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability. PMID:28685765</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCo...815998S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCo...815998S"><span>Western tropical Pacific multidecadal variability forced by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sun, Cheng; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Jianping; Jin, Fei-Fei; Kang, In-Sik; Ding, Ruiqiang</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Observational analysis suggests that the western tropical Pacific (WTP) sea surface temperature (SST) shows predominant variability over multidecadal time scales, which is unlikely to be explained by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Here we show that this variability is largely explained by the remote Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). A suite of Atlantic Pacemaker experiments successfully reproduces the WTP multidecadal variability and the AMO-WTP SST connection. The AMO warm SST anomaly generates an atmospheric teleconnection to the North Pacific, which weakens the Aleutian low and subtropical North Pacific westerlies. The wind changes induce a subtropical North Pacific SST warming through wind-evaporation-SST effect, and in response to this warming, the surface winds converge towards the subtropical North Pacific from the tropics, leading to anomalous cyclonic circulation and low pressure over the WTP region. The warm SST anomaly further develops due to the SST-sea level pressure-cloud-longwave radiation positive feedback. Our findings suggest that the Atlantic Ocean acts as a key pacemaker for the western Pacific decadal climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=248794&Lab=NHEERL&keyword=NASA&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=248794&Lab=NHEERL&keyword=NASA&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50"><span>Analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of terrestrial water storage and snowpack in the Pacific Northwestern United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>The spatial and temporal variability of terrestrial water storage and snowpack in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) was analyzed for water years 2001–2010 using measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) instrument. GRACE provides remotely-sensed measurements...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160011263&hterms=eastern+western&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Deastern%2Bwestern%26Nf%3DPublication-Date%257CBTWN%2B20070101%2B20180604','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160011263&hterms=eastern+western&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Deastern%2Bwestern%26Nf%3DPublication-Date%257CBTWN%2B20070101%2B20180604"><span>Western Pacific Hydroclimate Linked to Global Climate Variability Over the Past Two Millennia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Griffiths, Michael L.; Kimbrough, Alena K.; Gagan, Michael K.; Drysdale, Russell N.; Cole, Julia E.; Johnson, Kathleen R.; Zhao, Jian-Xin; Cook, Benjamin I.; Hellstrom, John C.; Hantoro, Wahyoe S.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between B1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between B1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49504','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49504"><span>Snow cover variability in a forest ecotone of the Oregon Cascades via MODIS Terra products</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Tihomir Sabinov Kostadinov; Todd R. Lookingbill</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Snowcover pattern and persistence have important implications for planetary energy balance, climate sensitivity to forcings, and vegetation structure, function, and composition. Variability in snow cover within mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest, USA is attributable to a combination of anthropogenic climate change and climate oscillations. However,...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70098176','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70098176"><span>Ocean-atmosphere forcing of centennial hydroclimatic variability in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Ortiz, Joseph D.; Feng, Song; Pompeani, David P.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Finney, Bruce P.; Bird, Broxton W.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Reconstructing centennial timescale hydroclimate variability during the late Holocene is critically important for understanding large-scale patterns of drought and their relationship with climate dynamics. We present sediment oxygen isotope records spanning the last two millennia from 10 lakes, as well as climate model simulations, indicating that the Little Ice Age was dry relative to the Medieval Climate Anomaly in much of the Pacific Northwest of North America. This pattern is consistent with observed associations between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Northern Annular Mode and drought as well as with proxy-based reconstructions of Pacific ocean-atmosphere variations over the past 1000 years. The large amplitude of centennial variability indicated by the lake data suggests that regional hydroclimate is characterized by longer-term shifts in ENSO-like dynamics, and that an improved understanding of the centennial timescale relationship between external forcing and drought conditions is necessary for projecting future hydroclimatic conditions in western North America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918153B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918153B"><span>Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Black, Bryan</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Rising climate variability and synchrony in North Pacific ecosystems Evidence is growing that climate variability of the northeast Pacific Ocean has increased over the last century, culminating in such events as the record-breaking El Niño years 1983, 1998, and 2016 and the unusually persistent 2014/15 North Pacific Ocean heat wave known as "The Blob." Of particular concern is that rising variability could increase synchrony within and among North Pacific ecosystems, which could reduce the diversity of biological responses to climate (i.e. the "portfolio effect"), diminish resilience, and leave populations more prone to extirpation. To test this phenomenon, we use a network of multidecadal fish otolith growth-increment chronologies that were strongly correlated to records of winter (Jan-Mar) sea level. These biological and physical datasets spanned the California Current through the Gulf of Alaska. Synchrony was quantified as directional changes in running (31-year window) mean pairwise correlation within sea level and then within otolith time series. Synchrony in winter sea level at the nine stations with the longest records has increased by more than 40% over the 1950-2015 interval. Likewise, synchrony among the eight longest otolith chronologies has increased more than 100% over a comparable time period. These directional changes in synchrony are highly unlikely due to chance alone, as confirmed by comparing trends in observed data to those in simulated data (n = 10,000 iterations) with time series of identical number, length, and autocorrelation. Ultimately, this trend in rising synchrony may be linked to increased impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on mid-latitude ecosystems of North America, and may therefore reflect a much broader, global-scale signature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CliPa..10..405C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CliPa..10..405C"><span>Persistent millennial-scale link between Greenland climate and northern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone under interglacial conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cartapanis, O.; Tachikawa, K.; Romero, O. E.; Bard, E.</p> <p>2014-02-01</p> <p>The intensity and/or extent of the northeastern Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ) varied in-phase with the Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate on millennial timescales during the last glacial period, indicating the occurrence of atmospheric and oceanic connections under glacial conditions. While millennial variability was reported for both the Greenland and the northern Atlantic Ocean during the last interglacial period, the climatic connections with the northeastern Pacific OMZ has not yet been observed under warm interglacial conditions. Here we present a new geochemical dataset, spanning the past 120 ka, for major components (terrigenous fraction, marine organic matter, biogenic opal, and carbonates) generated by X-ray fluorescence scanning alongside with biological productivity and redox sensitive trace element content (Mo, Ni, Cd) of sediment core MD02-2508 at 23° N, retrieved from the northern limit of the modern OMZ. Based on elemental ratios Si / Ti (proxy for opal), Cd / Al and Ni / Al, we suggest that biological productivity was high during the last interglacial (MIS5). Highly resolved opal reconstruction presents millennial variability corresponding to all the Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial events over the last interglacial, while the Mo / Al ratio indicates reduced oxygenation during these events. Extremely high opal content during warm interstadials suggests high diatom productivity. Despite the different climatic and oceanic background between glacial and interglacial periods, rapid variability in the northeastern Pacific OMZ seems to be tightly related to Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate via atmospheric and possibly oceanic processes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A23M..06E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A23M..06E"><span>Holocene constraints on simulated tropical Pacific climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Emile-Geay, J.; Cobb, K. M.; Carre, M.; Braconnot, P.; Leloup, J.; Zhou, Y.; Harrison, S. P.; Correge, T.; Mcgregor, H. V.; Collins, M.; Driscoll, R.; Elliot, M.; Schneider, B.; Tudhope, A. W.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate and weather worldwide, so uncertainties in its response to external forcings contribute to the spread in global climate projections. Theoretical and modeling studies have argued that such forcings may affect ENSO either via the seasonal cycle, the mean state, or extratropical influences, but these mechanisms are poorly constrained by the short instrumental record. Here we synthesize a pan-Pacific network of high-resolution marine biocarbonates spanning discrete snapshots of the Holocene (past 10, 000 years of Earth's history), which we use to constrain a set of global climate model (GCM) simulations via a forward model and a consistent treatment of uncertainty. Observations suggest important reductions in ENSO variability throughout the interval, most consistently during 3-5 kyBP, when approximately 2/3 reductions are inferred. The magnitude and timing of these ENSO variance reductions bear little resemblance to those sim- ulated by GCMs, or to equatorial insolation. The central Pacific witnessed a mid-Holocene increase in seasonality, at odds with the reductions simulated by GCMs. Finally, while GCM aggregate behavior shows a clear inverse relationship between seasonal amplitude and ENSO-band variance in sea-surface temperature, in agreement with many previous studies, such a relationship is not borne out by these observations. Our synthesis suggests that tropical Pacific climate is highly variable, but exhibited millennia-long periods of reduced ENSO variability whose origins, whether forced or unforced, contradict existing explanations. It also points to deficiencies in the ability of current GCMs to simulate forced changes in the tropical Pacific seasonal cycle and its interaction with ENSO, highlighting a key area of growth for future modeling efforts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41E..08T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41E..08T"><span>140-year subantarctic tree-ring temperature reconstruction reveals tropical forcing of increased Southern Ocean climate variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Turney, C. S.; Fogwill, C. J.; Palmer, J. G.; VanSebille, E.; Thomas, Z.; McGlone, M.; Richardson, S.; Wilmshurst, J.; Fenwick, P.; Zunz, V.; Goosse, H.; Wilson, K. J.; Carter, L.; Lipson, M.; Jones, R. T.; Harsch, M.; Clark, G.; Marzinelli, E.; Rogers, T.; Rainsley, E.; Ciasto, L.; Waterman, S.; Thomas, E. R.; Visbeck, M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Occupying about 14 % of the world's surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. Unfortunately, high interannual variability and a dearth of instrumental observations before the 1950s limits our understanding of how marine-atmosphere-ice domains interact on multi-decadal timescales and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. Here we integrate climate-sensitive tree growth with ocean and atmospheric observations on south-west Pacific subantarctic islands that lie at the boundary of polar and subtropical climates (52-54˚S). Our annually resolved temperature reconstruction captures regional change since the 1870s and demonstrates a significant increase in variability from the 1940s, a phenomenon predating the observational record, and coincident with major changes in mammalian and bird populations. Climate reanalysis and modelling show a parallel change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that generate an atmospheric Rossby wave train which propagates across a large part of the Southern Hemisphere during the austral spring and summer. Our results suggest that modern observed high interannual variability was established across the mid-twentieth century, and that the influence of contemporary equatorial Pacific temperatures may now be a permanent feature across the mid- to high latitudes.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active"><span>4</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_4 --> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......329M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PhDT.......329M"><span>Reconstructing Hydrologic Variability in Southwestern North America Using Speleothem Proxies and Precipitation Isotopes from California</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McCabe-Glynn, Staryl</p> <p></p> <p>Precipitation in southwestern North America has exhibited significant natural variability over the past few thousand years. This variability has been attributed to sea surface temperature regimes in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, and to the attendant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. In particular, decadal variability in the North Pacific has influenced precipitation in this region during the twentieth century, but links to earlier droughts and pluvials are unclear. Here I assess these links using delta18 O measurements from a speleothem from southern California that spans AD 854-- 2007. I show that variations in the oxygen isotopes of the speleothem correlate to sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension region of the North Pacific, which affect the atmospheric trajectory and isotopic composition of moisture reaching the study site. Interpreting our speleothem data as a record of sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Extension, I find a strong 22-year periodicity, suggesting a persistent solar influence on North Pacific decadal variability. A comparison with tree-ring records of precipitation during the past millennium shows that some droughts occurred during periods of warmth in the Kuroshio Extension, similar to the instrumental record. However, other droughts did not and instead were likely influenced by other factors. The carbon isotope record indicates drier conditions are associated with higher delta13C values and may be a suitable proxy for reconstructing past drought variability. More research is needed to determine the controls on trace element concentrations. Finally, I find a significant increase in sea surface temperature variability over the past 150 years, which may reflect an influence of greenhouse gas concentrations on variability in the North Pacific. While drought is a common feature of climate in this region, most climate models also project extreme precipitation events to increase in frequency and severity because the climate changes largely due to increased water vapor content in a warmer atmosphere. I also utilize precipitation data and isotopic analysis from precipitation samples collected weekly from near the cave site at Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park, California, from 2001 to 2011, to analyze climate mode patterns during extreme precipitation events and to construct an isotopic data base of precipitation samples. Composite maps indicate extreme precipitation weeks consist of a weaker Aleutian Low, coupled with a deep low pressure cell located northwest of California and enhanced subtropical moisture. I find extreme precipitation weeks occur more often during the La Nina phase and less during the positive Eastern Pacific (EP) phase or during the Central Pacific (CP) neutral phase at our site. Analyses of climate mode patterns and precipitation amounts indicate that when the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), negative and neutral Pacific North American pattern (PNA), and positive Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (La Nina) are in sync, the maximum amount of precipitation anomalies are distributed along the Western US. Additionally, the central or eastern Pacific location of El Nino Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies can further enhance predictive capabilities of the landfall location of extreme precipitation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15...20K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15...20K"><span>Climate change in the Pacific - is it real or not?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kuleshov, Yuriy</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>In this presentation, novel approaches and new ideas for students and young researchers to appreciate the importance of climate science are discussed. These approaches have been applied through conducting a number of training workshops in the Pacific Island Countries and teaching a course on climate change international law and climate change science at the University of the South Pacific (USP) - the first course on this type in the Pacific. Particular focus of this presentation is on broadening students' experience with application of web-based information tools for analysis of climatic extremes and natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Over the past few years, significant efforts of Australian climate scientists have been dedicated to improving understanding of climate in the Pacific through the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region). The first comprehensive scientific report about the Pacific climate has been published in 2011, as an outcome of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). A range of web-based information tools such as the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal, the Pacific Climate Change Data Portal and the Pacific Seasonal Climate Prediction Portal has been also developed through the PCCSP and the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program. Currently, further advancement in seasonal climate prediction science and developing enhanced software tools for the Pacific is undertaken through the Theme 1 of the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program. This new scientific knowledge needs to be transferred to students to provide them with true information about climate change and its impact on the Pacific Island Countries. Teachers and educators need their knowledge-base regularly updated and tools that will help their students critically evaluate information transmitted via the mass media. This is particularly important when educators present to students cutting edge science knowledge on climate change. Climate change skeptics through mass media attack climate scientists and dismiss their findings about magnitude of climate change. A novel approach implemented in our training workshops and teaching courses gives students practical hands on experience in examining climate data using the developed web-based information tools. Using the tools, students can examine climate of the Pacific Island Countries, derive trends in climate variables such as temperature and rainfall and make their own conclusions. An open forum "Is climate change real or not?" has also been included as an integral part of these workshops and teaching, giving an opportunity for students to present their findings. They have also been asked to provide examples of observed change in the environment in their countries which may be related to climate change. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive severe weather events in the Pacific which regularly affect countries in the region. Understanding importance of updating knowledge about cyclones, extensive training in using the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) has also been provided. Using this sophisticated web-based tool, students can learn about occurrences of cyclones in waters around their countries and over the whole Pacific. Positive feedback from university students and participants of training workshops has been obtained and this approach may be recommended for educators to include in their courses. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PASAP, PCCSP and PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122.1862W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122.1862W"><span>Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080045519','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080045519"><span>The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 2; Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara E.; Bosilovich, Michael G.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. In this study, we show that one of several PDV interdecadal regime shifts occurred during the 1990s. This significant change in the Pacific basin is comparable but opposite in phase to the 1976 climate regime shift, which results persisting warming in the central-eastern Pacific, and cooling in the North and South Pacific. The 1990s PDV regime shift is consistent with observed changes in ocean biosphere and ocean circulation. A comprehensive picture of PDV as manifested in the troposphere and at the surface is described. In general, the PDV spatial patterns in different parameter fields share some similarities with the patterns associated with ENSO, but important differences exist. First, the PDV atmospheric circulation pattern is shifted westward by about 20deg and its zonal extent is limited to approx.60deg compared to approx.110deg for ENS0 pattern. The westward shift of the PDV wave train produces a different, more west-east oriented, North American teleconnection pattern. The lack of a strong PDV surface temperature (ST) signal in the western equatorial Pacific and the relatively strong ST signal in the subtropical regions are consistent with an atmospheric overturning circulation response that differs from the one associated with ENSO.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.tmp..288L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.tmp..288L"><span>The dependence on atmospheric resolution of ENSO and related East Asian-western North Pacific summer climate variability in a coupled model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Bo; Zhao, Guijie; Huang, Gang; Wang, Pengfei; Yan, Bangliang</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>The authors present results for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian-western North Pacific climate variability simulated in a new version high-resolution coupled model (ICM.V2) developed at the Center for Monsoon System Research of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (CMSR, IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences. The analyses are based on the last 100-year output of a 1000-year simulation. Results are compared to an earlier version of the same coupled model (ICM.V1), reanalysis, and observations. The two versions of ICM have similar physics but different atmospheric resolution. The simulated climatological mean states show marked improvement over many regions, especially the tropics in ICM.V2 compared to those in ICM.V1. The common bias in the cold tongue has reduced, and the warm biases along the ocean boundaries have improved as well. With improved simulation of ENSO, including its period and strength, the ENSO-related western North Pacific summer climate variability becomes more realistic compared to the observations. The simulated East Asian summer monsoon anomalies in the El Niño decaying summer are substantially more realistic in ICM.V2, which might be related to a better simulation of the Indo-Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ThApC.132..953B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ThApC.132..953B"><span>Multi-scale impacts of the Pacific SST and PDO on the summer precipitation of North-Central China from 1870 to 2002</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bi, Shuoben; Qu, Ying; Bi, Shengjie; Wu, Weiting; Jiang, Tingting</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Climate variability has become a hot topic worldwide in recent years. Although large numbers of climate data series have been reconstructed based on hundreds to thousands, or even tens of thousands, of years, our understanding of this problem is still controversial. We use the precipitation index (PI) series to study the periodicity of the precipitation in northern China from 1870 to 2002 and explore the climate variability on a large timescale. The analysis shows that the precipitation has periods of 2.27-3.03, 7.14, 10.00, 11.11, 12.50, 14.29, 16.67, 20.00, and 25.00 a. Based on complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD), the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and Pacific interdecadal oscillation (PDO) are decomposed into different frequencies. The results show that the SST and PDO have interannual to interdecadal periodicity. To determine the impact of the Pacific SST and PDO on the PI, we make use of the cross wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherency spectrum to analyze their period relation and reveal their periodic change characteristics; it is found that different bands of the Pacific SST, PDO, and PI have high power.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34963','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34963"><span>Patterns of change in climate and Pacific salmon production</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Nathan J. Mantua</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>For much of the 20th century a clear north-south inverse production pattern for Pacific salmon had a time dynamic that closely followed that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is the dominant pattern of North Pacific sea surface temperature variability. Total Alaska salmon production was high during warm regimes of the PDO, and total Alaska salmon...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160013888&hterms=eastern+western&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Deastern%2Bwestern%26Nf%3DPublication-Date%257CBTWN%2B20070101%2B20180604','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160013888&hterms=eastern+western&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Deastern%2Bwestern%26Nf%3DPublication-Date%257CBTWN%2B20070101%2B20180604"><span>An Assessment of Multimodel Simulations for the Variability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones and Its Association with ENSO</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Han, Rongqing; Wang, Hui; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun; Li, Weijing; Long, Lindsey N.; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Peng, Peitao; Wang, Wanqiu; Si, Dong; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20160013888'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20160013888_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20160013888_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20160013888_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20160013888_hide"></p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>An assessment of simulations of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its association with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), as well as a subsequent diagnosis for possible causes of model biases generated from simulated large-scale climate conditions, are documented in the paper. The model experiments are carried out by the Hurricane Work Group under the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Research Program (CLIVAR) using five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members forced by the observed sea surface temperature and spanning the 28-yr period from 1982 to 2009. The results show GISS and GFDL model ensemble means best simulate the interannual variability of TCs, and the multimodel ensemble mean (MME) follows. Also, the MME has the closest climate mean annual number of WNP TCs and the smallest root-mean-square error to the observation. Most GCMs can simulate the interannual variability of WNP TCs well, with stronger TC activities during two types of El Niño-namely, eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño-and weaker activity during La Niña. However, none of the models capture the differences in TC activity between EP and CP El Niño as are shown in observations. The inability of models to distinguish the differences in TC activities between the two types of El Niño events may be due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1613249U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1613249U"><span>Asian Monsoon Variability from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) and Links to Indo-Pacific Climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ummenhofer, Caroline; D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Anchukaitis, Kevin; Hernandez, Manuel; Buckley, Brendan; Cook, Edward</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877-2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June-August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Variations in the strength of the South Asian monsoon can also be linked to the Strange Parallels Drought (1756-1768) affecting much of Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent in the mid-18th Century. Large-scale climate anomalies across the wider region during years with an anomalously strengthened/weakened South Asian monsoon are discussed with implications for severe droughts prior to the instrumental period. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41A0994B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41A0994B"><span>The Impact of Low-Level Cloud Feedback on Persistent Changes in Atmospheric Circulation in the Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Burgman, R.; Kirtman, B. P.; Clement, A. C.; Vazquez, H.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Recent studies suggest that low clouds in the Pacific play an important role in the observed decadal climate variability and future climate change. In this study, we implement a novel modeling experiment designed to isolate how interactions between local and remote feedbacks associated with low cloud, SSTs, and the largescale circulation play a significant role in the observed persistence of tropical Pacific SST and associated North American drought. The modeling approach involves the incorporation of observed patterns of satellite-derived shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) into the coupled model framework and is ideally suited for examining the role of local and large-scale coupled feedbacks and ocean heat transport in Pacific decadal variability. We show that changes in SWCRE forcing in eastern subtropical Pacific alone reproduces much of the observed changes in SST and atmospheric circulation over the past 16 years, including the observed changes in precipitation over much of the Western Hemisphere.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015392','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20110015392"><span>Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Concentration and Community in the Pacific Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rousseaux, C. S.; Gregg, W. W.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Climate events such as El Nino have been shown to have an effect on the biology of our ocean. Because of the lack of data, we still have very little knowledge about the spatial and temporal effect these climate events may have on biological marine systems. In this study, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) to assess the interannual variability in phytoplankton community in the Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005. In the North Central and Equatorial Pacific Ocean, changes in the Multivariate El Nino Index were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition. The model identified an increase in diatoms of approx.33 % in the equatorial Pacific in 1999 during a La Nina event. This increase in diatoms coincided with a decrease of approx.11 % in cyanobacteria concentration. The inverse relationship between cyanobacteria and diatoms concentration was significant (p<0.05) throughout the period of study. The use of a numerical model allows us to assess the impact climate variability has on key phytoplankton groups known to lead to contrasting food chain at a spatial and temporal resolution unachievable when relying solely on in-situ observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS33D..03R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS33D..03R"><span>Understanding multidecadal variability in ENSO amplitude</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific vary as a result of the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere driven largely by the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO has a large impact on the local climate and hydrology of the tropical Pacific, as well as broad-reaching effects on global climate. ENSO amplitude is known to vary on long timescales, which makes it very difficult to quantify its response to climate change and constrain the physical processes that drive it. In order to assess the extent of unforced multidecadal changes in ENSO variability, a linear regression of local SST changes is applied to the GFDL CM2.1 model 4000-yr pre-industrial control run. The resulting regression coefficient strengths, which represent the sensitivity of SST changes to thermocline depth and zonal wind stress, vary by up to a factor of 2 on multi-decadal time scales. This long-term modulation in ocean-atmosphere coupling is highly correlated with ENSO variability, but do not explain the reasons for such variability. Variation in the relationship between SST changes and wind stress points to a role for changing stratification in the central equatorial Pacific in modulating ENSO amplitudes with stronger stratification reducing the response to winds. The main driving mechanism we have identified for higher ENSO variance are changes in the response of zonal winds to SST anomalies. The shifting convection and precipitation patterns associated with the changing state of the atmosphere also contribute to the variability of the regression coefficients. These mechanisms drive much of the variability in ENSO amplitude and hence ocean-atmosphere coupling in the tropical Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000053089','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000053089"><span>Wintertime East Asian Jet Stream and its Association with the Asian-Pacific-American Climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>The wintertime upper-tropospheric westerly jet stream over subtropical East Asia and western Pacific, often referred to as East Asian Jet (EAJ), is an important atmospheric circulation system in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) region. It is characterized by variabilities on a wide range of time scales and exerts a strong impact on the weather and climate of the region. On the synoptic scale, the jet is closely linked to many phenomena such as cyclogenesis, frontogenesis, blocking, storm track activity, and the development of other atmospheric disturbances. On the seasonal time scale, the variation of the EAJ determines many characteristics of the seasonal transition of the atmospheric circulation over Asia. The variabilities of the jet on these time scales have been relatively well documented (e.g., Yeh et al. 1959, Palmen and Newton 1969; Zeng 1979). It has also been understood that the inter-annual variability of the EAJ is associated with many climate signals in the APA region. These signals include the persistent anomalies of the East Asian winter monsoon and the changes in diabatic heating and in the Hadley circulation (Bjerknes 1966; Chang and Lau 1980; Huang and Gambo 1982; Kang and Held 1986; Tao and Chen 1987; Lau et al. 1988; Yang and Webster 1990; Ding 1992; Webster and Yang 1992; Dong et al. 1999). However, many questions remain for the year-to-year variabilities of the jet and their relation to the APA climate. For example, what is the relationship between the EAJ and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)? Will the jet and ENSO play different roles in modulating the APA climate? How is the jet linked to North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern? In this study, we address several issues related to the wintertime EAJ with a focus on interannual time scales. We will examine the association between the jet core and ENSO, which has always been overshadowed by the relationship between ENSO and the upper-tropospheric winds over northern extratropics of the central Pacific. We will investigate the linkage of the jet to variabilities of the Asian winter monsoon, tropical convection, and upper tropospheric wave patterns. We will also explore the relationship between the jet core and extratropical S ST with an aim at providing helpful information for improving our understanding of the connection of the EAJ to surface boundary conditions. The analysis is expected to provide information that is helpful for improving regional climate predictions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPP51C..05A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPP51C..05A"><span>Multiproxy reconstruction of tropical Pacific Holocene temperature gradients and water column structure</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arbuszewski, J. A.; Oppo, D.; Huang, K.; Dubois, N.; Galy, V.; Mohtadi, M.; Herbert, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent mode of tropical Pacific climate variability and has the potential to significantly impact the climate of the Indo-Pacific region and globally1. In the past, the mean state of the Pacific Ocean has, at times, resembled El Niño or La Niña conditions2. Although the dynamical relationships responsible for these changes have been studied through paleoproxy reconstructions and climate modeling, many questions remain. Recent paleoproxy based studies of tropical Pacific hydrology and surface temperature variability have hypothesized that observed climatological changes over the Holocene are directly linked to ENSO and/or mean state variability, complementing studies that dynamically relate centennial scale ENSO variability to mean state changes3-8. These studies have suggested that mid Holocene ENSO variability was low and the mean state was more "La Niña" like3-6. In the late Holocene, paleoproxy data has been interpreted as indicating an increase in ENSO variability with a more moderate mean ocean state3-6. However, alternative explanations could exist. Here, we test the hypothesis that observed climatological changes in the eastern tropical Pacific are related to mean state or ENSO variability during the Holocene. We focus our study on two sets of cores from the equatorial Pacific, with one located in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (BJ803-119 GGC, 117MC, sedimentation rates ~29 cm/kyr) and the other just off the Galapagos in the heart of the Eastern Cold Tongue (KNR195-5 43 GGC, 42MC, sedimentation rates ~20cm/kyr). The western site lies in the region predicted by models to show the greatest variations in temperature and water column structure in response to mean state changes, while the eastern site lies in the area most prone to changes due to ENSO variability7. Together, these sites allow us the best chance to robustly reconstruct ENSO and mean state related changes. We use a multiproxy approach and consider records from organic (sterol abundances) and inorganic proxies (Mg/Ca and δ18O of 3 planktonic foraminiferal species, % G. bulloides) to reconstruct zonal tropical Pacific (sub)surface temperature and stratification gradients over the Holocene. A benefit of using this approach is that it enables us to combine the strengths of each individual proxy to derive more robust records. We will compare our records with published paleoproxy and model studies in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions. Armed with this information, we aim to better understand mean state changes in the tropical Pacific over the Holocene. 1 Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626 (1987). 2 Collins, M. et al. Nature Geoscience 3, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1868 (2010). 3 Koutavas, A., Lynch-Steiglitz, J., Marchitto, T. & Sachs, J. Science 297, 226-230 (2002). 4 Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T. & Anderson, D. M. Nature 420, 162-165 (2002). 5 Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M. & Steinitz-Kannan, M. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1166-1180 (2008). 6 Makou, M. C., Eglinton, T. I., Oppo, D. W. & Hughen, K. A. Geology 38, 43-46 (2010). 7 Karnauskas, K., Smerdon, J., Seager, R. & Gonzalez-Rouco, J. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1178/JCLI-D-1111-00421.00421 (2012 (in press)). 8 Clement, A., Seager, R. & Cane, M. Paleoceanography 14, 441-456 (2000).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29780186','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29780186"><span>Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Coats, S; Smerdon, J E; Cook, B I; Seager, R; Cook, E R; Anchukaitis, K J</p> <p>2016-09-28</p> <p>Multidecadal droughts that occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly represent an important target for validating the ability of climate models to adequately characterize drought risk over the near-term future. A prominent hypothesis is that these megadroughts were driven by a centuries-long radiatively forced shift in the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Here we use a novel combination of spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate to infer the atmosphere-ocean dynamics that coincide with megadroughts over the American West, and find that these features are consistently associated with ten-to-thirty year periods of frequent cold El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions and not a centuries-long shift in the mean of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results suggest an important role for internal variability in driving past megadroughts. State-of-the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, however, do not simulate a consistent association between megadroughts and internal variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, with implications for our confidence in megadrought risk projections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29158140','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29158140"><span>Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPA24A..08M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMPA24A..08M"><span>The Pacific Northwest's Climate Impacts Group: Climate Science in the Public Interest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mantua, N.; Snover, A.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>Since its inception in 1995, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) (funded under NOAA's Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) Program) has become the leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and climate change on natural and human systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), specifically climate impacts on water, forest, fish and coastal resource systems. The CIG's research provides PNW planners, decision makers, resource managers, local media, and the general public with valuable knowledge of ways in which the region's key natural resources are vulnerable to changes in climate, and how this vulnerability can be reduced. The CIG engages in climate science in the public interest, conducting original research on the causes and consequences of climate variability and change for the PNW and developing forecasts and decision support tools to support the use of this information in federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector resource management decisions. The CIG's focus on the intersection of climate science and public policy has placed the CIG nationally at the forefront of regional climate impacts assessment and integrated analysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1235117-el-nino-southern-oscillation-frequency-cascade','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1235117-el-nino-southern-oscillation-frequency-cascade"><span>El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation frequency cascade</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei -Fei; Timmermann, Axel</p> <p>2015-10-19</p> <p>The El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. In this paper, we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Finally, through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclonemore » variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1235117-el-nino-southern-oscillation-frequency-cascade','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1235117-el-nino-southern-oscillation-frequency-cascade"><span>El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation frequency cascade</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei -Fei; Timmermann, Axel</p> <p></p> <p>The El Niño$-$Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the most pronounced feature of internally generated climate variability, occurs on interannual timescales and impacts the global climate system through an interaction with the annual cycle. The tight coupling between ENSO and the annual cycle is particularly pronounced over the tropical Western Pacific. In this paper, we show that this nonlinear interaction results in a frequency cascade in the atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by deterministic high-frequency variability on near-annual and subannual timescales. Finally, through climate model experiments and observational analysis, it is documented that a substantial fraction of the anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclonemore » variability, which is the main atmospheric link between ENSO and the East Asian Monsoon system, can be explained by these interactions and is thus deterministic and potentially predictable.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27404090','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27404090"><span>Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib</p> <p>2016-07-12</p> <p>Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth's global surface temperature.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active"><span>5</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_5 --> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4941568','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4941568"><span>Decadal variability of tropical tropopause temperature and its relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Tropopause temperatures (TPTs) control the amount of stratospheric water vapour, which influences chemistry, radiation and circulation in the stratosphere, and is also an important driver of surface climate. Decadal variability and long-term trends in tropical TPTs as well as stratospheric water vapour are largely unknown. Here, we present for the first time evidence, from reanalysis and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, of a link between decadal variability in tropical TPTs and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The negative phase of the PDO is associated with anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical east and central Pacific, which enhance the zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. The latter drives a stronger Walker Circulation and a weaker Hadley Circulation, which leads to less convection and subsequently a warmer tropopause over the central equatorial Pacific. Over the North Pacific, positive sea level pressure anomalies occur, which damp vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. This in turn slows the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and hence warms the tropical tropopause, enabling more water vapour to enter the stratosphere. The reverse chain of events holds for the positive phase of the PDO. Such ocean-troposphere-stratosphere interactions may provide an important feedback on the Earth’s global surface temperature. PMID:27404090</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PalOc..29.1196D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PalOc..29.1196D"><span>A Fiji multi-coral δ18O composite approach to obtaining a more accurate reconstruction of the last two-centuries of the ocean-climate variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dassié, Emilie P.; Linsley, Braddock K.; Corrège, Thierry; Wu, Henry C.; Lemley, Gavin M.; Howe, Steve; Cabioch, Guy</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The limited availability of oceanographic data in the tropical Pacific Ocean prior to the satellite era makes coral-based climate reconstructions a key tool for extending the instrumental record back in time, thereby providing a much needed test for climate models and projections. We have generated a unique regional network consisting of five Porites coral δ18O time series from different locations in the Fijian archipelago. Our results indicate that using a minimum of three Porites coral δ18O records from Fiji is statistically sufficient to obtain a reliable signal for climate reconstruction, and that application of an approach used in tree ring studies is a suitable tool to determine this number. The coral δ18O composite indicates that while sea surface temperature (SST) variability is the primary driver of seasonal δ18O variability in these Fiji corals, annual average coral δ18O is more closely correlated to sea surface salinity (SSS) as previously reported. Our results highlight the importance of water mass advection in controlling Fiji coral δ18O and salinity variability at interannual and decadal time scales despite being located in the heavy rainfall region of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Fiji δ18O composite presents a secular freshening and warming trend since the 1850s coupled with changes in both interannual (IA) and decadal/interdecadal (D/I) variance. The changes in IA and D/I variance suggest a re-organization of climatic variability in the SPCZ region beginning in the late 1800s to period of a more dominant interannual variability, which could correspond to a southeast expansion of the SPCZ.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP54A..07C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP54A..07C"><span>Tropical Pacific climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly: progress and pitfalls</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Charles, C.; Sayani, H. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.; Atwood, A. R.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>A vast trove of paleoclimate records indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1200AD) was characterized by relative warmth throughout the Northern Hemisphere and significant hydroclimate anomalies - particularly well-resolved over North America - that posed a challenge to human populations. The global-scale nature of the climate anomalies has driven speculation that the tropical Pacific, with its rich spectrum of natural variability and far-reaching impact, may have undergone a prolonged reorganization during the MCA. While some key records from across the tropical Pacific document significant changes in temperature and/or hydrology, a dynamically-consistent picture of the MCA tropical Pacific climate state has proven elusive. In particular, there are few if any robust paleoclimate constraints from the central Pacific, where even modest changes in ocean temperature translate into distinct patterns of global atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we present a new collection of fossil coral multi-proxy records from Christmas Island (2N, 157W) that provide robust constraints on both temperature and hydrological changes during the MCA. We employ both modern coral data, instrumental climate data, and climate model output in developing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties associated with the new fossil coral data. In doing so, we illustrate the clear benefits of modern environmental monitoring campaigns that inform the generation of paleoclimate pseudo-proxies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS11B..07V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS11B..07V"><span>The role of the oceans in changes of the Earth's climate system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>von Schuckmann, K.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Any changes to the Earth's climate system affect an imbalance of the Earth's energy budget due to natural or human made climate forcing. The current positive Earth's energy imbalance is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. Variations in the world's ocean heat storage and its associated volume changes are a key factor to gauge global warming, to assess changes in the Earth's energy budget and to estimate contributions to the global sea level budget. Present-day sea-level rise is one of the major symptoms of the current positive Earth Energy Imbalance. Sea level also responds to natural climate variability that is superimposing and altering the global warming signal. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It has been also shown that sea level variability in other regions of the Indo-Pacific area significantly alters estimates of the rate of sea level rise, i.e. in the Indonesian archipelago. In summary, improving the accuracy of our estimates of global Earth's climate state and variability is critical for advancing the understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate, and an overview on recent findings on the role of the global ocean in changes of the Earth's climate system with particular focus on sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific region will be given in this contribution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO33C..02G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO33C..02G"><span>Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment (SPICE) scientific advances and future west pacific coordination</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ganachaud, A. S.; Sprintall, J.; Lin, X.; Ando, K.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>The Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment (SPICE) is an international research program under the auspices of CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability). The key objectives are to understand the Southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and Convergence Zone (SPCZ) dynamics, as well as their influence on regional and basin-scale climate patterns. It was designed to measure and monitor the ocean circulation, and to validate and improve numerical models. South Pacific oceanic waters are carried from the subtropical gyre centre in the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC), towards the southwest Pacific-a major circulation pathway that redistributes water from the subtropics to the equator and Southern Ocean. Water transit through the Coral and Solomon Seas is potentially of great importance to tropical climate prediction because changes in either the temperature or the amount of water arriving at the equator have the capability to modulate ENSO and produce basin-scale climate feedbacks. On average, the oceanic circulation is driven by the Trade Winds, and subject to substantial variability, related with the SPCZ position and intensity. The circulation is complex, with the SEC splitting into zonal jets upon encountering island archipelagos, before joining either the East Australian Current or the New Guinea Costal UnderCurrent towards the equator. SPICE included large, coordinated in situ measurement programs and high resolution numerical simulations of the area. After 8 years of substantial in situ oceanic observational and modeling efforts, our understanding of the region has much improved. We have a refined description of the SPCZ behavior, boundary currents, pathways, and water mass transformation, including the previously undocumented Solomon Sea. The transports are large and vary substantially in a counter-intuitive way, with asymmetries and gating effects that depend on time scales. We will review the recent advancements and discuss our current knowledge gaps and important emerging research directions. In particular we will discuss how SPICE, along with the Northwestern Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment (NPOCE) and Indonesian ThroughFlow (ITF) programs could evolve toward an integrative observing system under CLIVAR coordination.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC33H..08M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC33H..08M"><span>Societal Impacts of Natural Decadal Climate Variability - The Pacemakers of Civilizations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mehta, V. M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Natural decadal climate variability (DCV) is one of the oldest areas of climate research. Building on centuries-long literature, a substantial body of research has emerged in the last two to three decades, focused on understanding causes, mechanisms, and impacts of DCV. Several DCV phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature gradient variability (TAG for brevity), West Pacific Warm Pool variability, and decadal variability of El Niño-La Niña events - have been identified in observational records; and are associated with variability of worldwide atmospheric circulations, water vapor transport, precipitation, and temperatures; and oceanic circulations, salinity, and temperatures. Tree-ring based drought index data going back more than 700 years show presence of decadal hydrologic cycles (DHCs) in North America, Europe, and South Asia. Some of these cycles were associated with the rise and fall of civilizations, large-scale famines which killed millions of people, and acted as catalysts for socio-political revolutions. Instrument-measured data confirm presence of such worldwide DHCs associated with DCV phenomena; and show these DCV phenomena's worldwide impacts on river flows, crop productions, inland water-borne transportation, hydro-electricity generation, and agricultural irrigation. Fish catch data also show multiyear to decadal catch variability associated with these DCV phenomena in all oceans. This talk, drawn from my recently-published book (Mehta, V.M., 2017: Natural Decadal Climate Variability: Societal Impacts. CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida, 326 pp.), will give an overview of worldwide impacts of DCV phenomena, with specific examples of socio-economic-political impacts. This talk will also describe national and international security implications of such societal impacts, and worldwide food security implications. The talk will end with an outline of needed actions to adapt to these impacts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/50697','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/50697"><span>Predicting the unpredictable: potential climate change impacts on vegetation in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Marie Oliver; David W. Peterson; Becky Kerns</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Earth's climate is changing, as evidenced by warming temperatures, increased temperature variability, fluctuating precipitation patterns, and climate-related environmental disturbances. And with considerable uncertainty about the future, Forest Service land managers are now considering climate change adaptation in their planning efforts. They want practical...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PalOc..29..143K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PalOc..29..143K"><span>Assessing millennial-scale variability during the Holocene: A perspective from the western tropical Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khider, D.; Jackson, C. S.; Stott, L. D.</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>We investigate the relationship between tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean variability during the Holocene using the stable oxygen isotope and magnesium/calcium records of cooccurring planktonic and benthic foraminifera from a marine sediment core collected in the western equatorial Pacific. The planktonic record exhibits millennial-scale sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations over the Holocene of 0.5°C while the benthic δ18Oc document 0.10‰ millennial-scale changes of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water (UCDW), a water mass which outcrops in the Southern Ocean. Solar forcing as an explanation for millennial-scale SST variability requires (1) a large climate sensitivity and (2) a long 400 year delayed response, suggesting that if solar forcing is the cause of the variability, it would need to be considerably amplified by processes within the climate system at least at the core location. We also explore the possibility that SST variability arose from volcanic forcing using a simple red noise model. Our best estimates of volcanic forcing falls short of reproducing the amplitude of observed SST variations although it produces power at low-frequency similar to that observed in the MD81 record. Although we cannot totally discount the volcanic and solar forcing hypotheses, we are left to consider that the most plausible source for Holocene millennial-scale variability lies within the climate system itself. In particular, UCDW variability coincided with deep North Atlantic changes, indicating a role for the deep ocean in Holocene millennial-scale variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49497','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/49497"><span>Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Bryan A. Black; Jason B. Dunham; Brett W. Blundon; Jayne Brim-Box; Alan J. Tepley</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC51F..04F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC51F..04F"><span>Exploring Pacific Climate Variability and Its Impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Funk, C. C.; Hoerling, M. P.; Hoell, A.; Liebmann, B.; Verdin, J. P.; Eilerts, G.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In 8 out the past 15 boreal springs (1999, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, and 2013), substantial parts of eastern East Africa experienced very low boreal spring rains. These rainfall deficits have triggered widespread food insecurity, and even contributed to the outbreak of famine conditions in Somalia in 2011. At both seasonal and decadal time scales, new science supported by the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network seeks to understand the mechanisms producing these droughts. We present research suggesting that the ultimate and proximate causes of these increases in aridity are i) stronger equatorial Pacific SST gradients and ii) associated increases in the strength of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. Using observations and new modeling ensembles, we explore the relative contributions of Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and global warming under warm and cold east Pacific Ocean states. This question is addressed in two ways: by using atmospheric GCMs forced with full and ENSO-only SSTs, and ii) by decomposing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate simulations into PDV and non-PDV components. These analyses allow us to explore the Walker circulation's sensitivity to climate change under various PDV states, and inform a tentative bracketing of 2030 climate conditions. We conclude by discussing links to East African development. Regions of high rainfall sensitivity are delineated and intersected with recent changes in population and land cover/land use. The interaction of elevation and climate is shown to create climatically secure regions that are likely to remain viable even under drier and warmer conditions; such regions may be logical targets for agricultural intensification. Conversely, arid low elevation regions are likely to experience substantial temperature impacts. Continued expansion into these areas may effectively create more 'drought' even if rainfall increases.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A41P..04D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A41P..04D"><span>Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Done, J.; Ge, M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A31E0112Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A31E0112Y"><span>Decadal Variation's Offset of Global Warming in Recent Tropical Pacific Climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yeo, S. R.; Yeh, S. W.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, W.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Despite the increasing greenhouse gas concentration, there is no significant warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific since about 2000. This counterintuitive observation has generated substantial interest in the role of low-frequency variation over the Pacific Ocean such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Therefore, it is necessary to appropriately separate low-frequency variability and global warming from SST records. Here we present three primary modes of global SST as a secular warming trend, a low-frequency variability, and a biennial oscillation through the use of novel statistical method. By analyzing temporal behavior of the three-mode, it is found that the opposite contributions of secular warming trend and cold phase of low-frequency variability since 1999 account for the warming hiatus in the tropical eastern Pacific. This result implies that the low-frequency variability modulates the manifestation of global warming signal in the tropical Pacific SST. Furthermore, if the low-frequency variability turns to a positive phase, warming in the tropical eastern Pacific will be amplified and also strong El Niño events will occur more frequently in the near future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43D..04A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43D..04A"><span>An Coral Ensemble Approach to Reconstructing Central Pacific Climate Change During the Holocene</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Atwood, A. R.; Cobb, K. M.; Grothe, P. R.; Sayani, H. R.; Southon, J. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Deocampo, D.; Chen, T.; Townsend, K. J.; Hagos, M. M.; Chiang, J. C. H.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The processes that control El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on long timescales are still poorly understood. As a consequence, limited progress has been made in understanding how ENSO will change under greenhouse gas forcing. The mid-Holocene provides a well-defined target to study the fundamental controls of ENSO variability. A large number of paleo-ENSO records spanning the tropical Pacific indicate that ENSO variability was reduced by as much as 50% between 3000-6000 yr BP, relative to modern times. Dynamical models of ENSO suggest that ENSO properties can shift in response to changes in the tropical Pacific mean state and/or seasonal cycle, but few proxy records can resolve such changes during the interval in question with enough accuracy. While decades of research have demonstrated the fidelity of tropical Pacific coral d18O records to quantify interannual temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO, substantial mean offsets exist across overlapping coral sequences that have made it difficult to quantify past changes in mean climate. Here, we test a new approach to reconstruct changes in mean climate from coral records using a large ensemble of bulk d18O measurements on radiometrically-dated fossil corals from Christmas Island that span the Holocene. In contrast to the traditional method of high-resolution sampling to reconstruct monthly climate conditions, we implement a bulk approach, which dramatically reduces the analysis time needed to estimate mean coral d18O and enables a large number of corals to be analyzed in the production of an ensemble of mean climate estimates. A pseudo-coral experiment based on simulations with a Linear Inverse Model and a coupled GCM is used to determine the number of bulk coral estimates that are required to resolve a given mean climate perturbation. In addition to these bulk measurements, short transects are sampled at high resolution to constrain changes in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. We present preliminary results from our joint bulk/high-resolution sampling approach that provide new constraints on changes in mean climate and seasonality in the central equatorial Pacific over the last 6,000 yr BP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....1505D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003EAEJA.....1505D"><span>300 Years of East African Climate Variability from Oxygen Isotopes in a Kenya Coral</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dunbar, R.</p> <p>2003-04-01</p> <p>Instrumental records of climate variability from the western Indian Ocean are relatively scarce and short. Here I present a monthly resolution stable isotopic record acquired from a large living coral head (Porites) from the Malindi Marine Reserve, Kenya (3^oS, 40^oE). The annual chronology is precise and is based on exceptionally clear high and low density growth band couplets. The record extends from 1696 to 1996 A.D., making it the longest coral climate record from the Indian Ocean and one of the longest available worldwide. We have analyzed the uppermost portion of the coral colony in triplicate, using 3 separate cores. This upper section, used for calibration purposes, also provides estimates of signal fidelity and noise in the climate recording system internal to the colony. Coral δ18O at this site primarily records SST; linear regression of monthly coral δ18O vs. SST yields a slope of -0.26 ppm δ18O per ^oC, and δ18O explains ˜57% of the SST variance. Additional isotopic variability may result from changes in seawater δ18O due to local runoff or regional evaporation/precipitation balance, but these changes are likely to be small because local rainfall δ18O is not strongly depleted relative to seawater and salinity gradients are small. The coral record indicates a clear warming trend of about 1.5^oC that accelerates in the latest 20th century, superimposed on strong decadal variability that persists throughout the record. In fact, δ18O values in the 1990's exceed the 300 year envelope (they are lower) and correspond with apparently unprecedented coral bleaching in coastal East Africa. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In general, East African SST and rainfall are better correlated with Pacific ENSO indicators than with the Indian Monsoon at all periods (inter-annual through multi-decadal) but the correlation weakens after 1975. One dramatic new result we report here is a strong indication of a major cool and dry period from 1750--1820 A.D. This is the single largest multi-decadal anomaly of the past 300 years and correlates perfectly in time with the historically and anecdotally defined Lapanarat Drought. Our results indicate a strong link between multi-decadal tropical cold SST anomalies And far-reaching continental droughts in East Africa. Causes and links to other climate recording systems will be explored. Interannual-decadal SST variations are strongly coherent with ENSO indices and other ENSO-sensitive coral records on decadal and interannual time scales. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous work has argued that this component likely reflects a monsoonal influence. However, decadal variance in both Malindi and Seychelles (Charles et al. 1997) coral records is more strongly coherent with ENSO indices than with the India or East Africa rain indices. The coherency of both coral records with Pacific indicators suggests instead that Indian Ocean variability reflects decadal ENSO-like variability originating in the Pacific. These records don't correlate significantly with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation implying a dominant role for the tropical Pacific (as opposed to extra-tropical regions) as a source of regional decadal variability in the western Indian Ocean. This work confirms that the tropical Pacific can act as an agent of decadal climate variability over a very large spatial scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoRL..3721602C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010GeoRL..3721602C"><span>Biological communities in San Francisco Bay track large-scale climate forcing over the North Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cloern, James E.; Hieb, Kathryn A.; Jacobson, Teresa; Sansó, Bruno; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Stacey, Mark T.; Largier, John L.; Meiring, Wendy; Peterson, William T.; Powell, Thomas M.; Winder, Monika; Jassby, Alan D.</p> <p>2010-11-01</p> <p>Long-term observations show that fish and plankton populations in the ocean fluctuate in synchrony with large-scale climate patterns, but similar evidence is lacking for estuaries because of shorter observational records. Marine fish and invertebrates have been sampled in San Francisco Bay since 1980 and exhibit large, unexplained population changes including record-high abundances of common species after 1999. Our analysis shows that populations of demersal fish, crabs and shrimp covary with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), both of which reversed signs in 1999. A time series model forced by the atmospheric driver of NPGO accounts for two-thirds of the variability in the first principal component of species abundances, and generalized linear models forced by PDO and NPGO account for most of the annual variability of individual species. We infer that synchronous shifts in climate patterns and community variability in San Francisco Bay are related to changes in oceanic wind forcing that modify coastal currents, upwelling intensity, surface temperature, and their influence on recruitment of marine species that utilize estuaries as nursery habitat. Ecological forecasts of estuarine responses to climate change must therefore consider how altered patterns of atmospheric forcing across ocean basins influence coastal oceanography as well as watershed hydrology.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..748C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..748C"><span>Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to the CP SST variation. Indeed, further inspection suggests that models with stronger intensification of the CP SST variability and its related tropical precipitation response tend to have larger deepening magnitude of the North Pacific trough associated with the PNA variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4379C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4379C"><span>Pacific-North American teleconnection and North Pacific Oscillation: historical simulation and future projection in CMIP5 models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin; Jia, Fan</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Based on reanalysis datasets and as many as 35 CMIP5 models, this study evaluates the capability of climate models to simulate the spatiotemporal features of Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) in the twentieth century wintertime, and further investigates their responses to greenhouse warming in the twenty-first century. Analysis reveals that while the majority (80%) of models reasonably simulate either the geographical distribution or the amplitude of PNA/NPO pattern, only half of models can well capture both features in space. As for the temporal features, variabilities of PNA and NPO in most models are biased toward higher amplitude. Additionally, most models simulate the interannual variabilities of PNA and NPO, qualitatively consistent with the observation, whereas models generally lack the capability to reproduce the decadal (20-25 years) variability of PNA. As the climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the PNA intensity is found to be strengthened, whereas there is no consensus on the direction of change in the NPO intensity among models. The intensification of positive PNA is primarily manifested in the large deepening of the North Pacific trough, which is robust as it is 2.3 times the unforced internal variability. By focusing on the tropical Pacific Ocean, we find that the multidecadal evolution of the North Pacific trough intensity (dominating the PNA intensity evolution) is closely related to that of the analogous trough in the PNA-like teleconnection forced by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the tropical central Pacific (CP) rather than the tropical eastern Pacific (EP). Such association is also found to act under greenhouse warming: that is, the strengthening of the PNA-like teleconnection induced by the CP SSTa rather than the EP SSTa is a driving force for the intensification of PNA. This is in part owing to the robust enhancement of the tropical precipitation response to the CP SST variation. Indeed, further inspection suggests that models with stronger intensification of the CP SST variability and its related tropical precipitation response tend to have larger deepening magnitude of the North Pacific trough associated with the PNA variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3631642','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3631642"><span>Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Deyle, Ethan R.; Fogarty, Michael; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Kaufman, Les; MacCall, Alec D.; Munch, Stephan B.; Perretti, Charles T.; Ye, Hao; Sugihara, George</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine. PMID:23536299</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/38302','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/38302"><span>Strong links between teleconnections and ecosystem exchange found at a Pacific Northwest old-growth forest from flux tower and MODIS EVI data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Sonia Wharton; Laura Chasmer; Matthias Falk; Kyaw Tha Paw U</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use 9 years of eddy covariance...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC34D..06G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC34D..06G"><span>Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment: Building a Framework to Track Physical and Social Indicators of Climate Change Across Pacific Islands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Assessments inform regional and local climate change governance and provide the critical scientific basis for U.S. climate policy. Despite the centrality of scientific information to public discourse and decision making, comprehensive assessments of climate change drivers, impacts, and the vulnerability of human and ecological systems at regional or local scales are often conducted on an ad hoc basis. Methods for sustained assessment and communication of scientific information are diverse and nascent. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) is a collaborative effort to assess climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). In 2012, PIRCA released the first comprehensive report summarizing the state of scientific knowledge about climate change in the region as a technical input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. A multi-method evaluation of PIRCA outputs and delivery revealed that the vast majority of key stakeholders view the report as extremely credible and use it as a resource. The current study will present PIRCA's approach to establishing physical and social indicators to track on an ongoing basis, starting with the Republic of the Marshall Islands as an initial location of focus for providing a cross-sectoral indicators framework. Identifying and tracking useful indicators is aimed at sustaining the process of knowledge coproduction with decision makers who seek to better understand the climate variability and change and its impacts on Pacific Island communities.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active"><span>6</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_6 --> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT........19T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT........19T"><span>What controls the variability of oxygen in the subpolar North Pacific?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Takano, Yohei</p> <p></p> <p>Dissolved oxygen is a widely observed chemical quantity in the oceans along with temperature and salinity. Changes in the dissolved oxygen have been observed over the world oceans. Observed oxygen in the Ocean Station Papa (OSP, 50°N, 145°W) in the Gulf of Alaska exhibits strong variability over interannual and decadal timescales, however, the mechanisms driving the observed variability are not yet fully understood. Furthermore, irregular sampling frequency and relatively short record length make it difficult to detect a low-frequency variability. Motivated by these observations, we investigate the mechanisms driving the low-frequency variability of oxygen in the subpolar North Pacific. The specific purposes of this study are (1) to evaluate the robustness of the observed low-frequency variability of dissolved oxygen and (2) to determine the mechanisms driving the observed variability using statistical data analysis and numerical simulations. To evaluate the robustness of the low-frequency variability, we conducted spectral analyses on the observed oxygen at OSP. To address the irregular sampling frequency we randomly sub-sampled the raw data to form 500 ensemble members with a regular time interval, and then performed spectral analyses. The resulting power spectrum of oxygen exhibits a robust low-frequency variability and a statistically significant spectral peak is identified at a timescale of 15--20 years. The wintertime oceanic barotropic streamfunction is significantly correlated with the observed oxygen anomaly at OSP with a north-south dipole structure over the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the observed low-frequency variability is primarily driven by the variability of large-scale ocean circulation in the North Pacific. To test this hypothesis, we simulate the three-dimensional distribution of oxygen anomaly between 1952 to 2001 using data-constrained circulation fields. The simulated oxygen anomaly shows an outstanding variability in the Gulf of Alaska, showing that this region is a hotspot of oxygen fluctuation. Anomalous advection acting on the climatological mean oxygen gradient is the source of oxygen variability in this simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of the simulated oxygen show that the two dominant modes of the oxygen anomaly explains more than 50% of oxygen variance over the North Pacific, that are closely related to the dominant modes of climate variability in the North Pacific (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Oscillation). Our results imply the important link between large-scale climate fluctuations, ocean circulation and biogeochemical tracers in the North Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1134073','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1134073"><span>Final Report for UW-Madison Portion of DE-SC0005301, "Collaborative Project: Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Vimont, Daniel</p> <p></p> <p>This project funded two efforts at understanding the interactions between Central Pacific ENSO events, the mid-latitude atmosphere, and decadal variability in the Pacific. The first was an investigation of conditions that lead to Central Pacific (CP) and East Pacific (EP) ENSO events through the use of linear inverse modeling with defined norms. The second effort was a modeling study that combined output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmospheric Model (CAM4) with the Battisti (1988) intermediate coupled model. The intent of the second activity was to investigate the relationship between the atmospheric North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), themore » Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), and ENSO. These two activities are described herein.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...80K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14...80K"><span>An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC24A2125U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC24A2125U"><span>Determining the Effect of the Lunar Nodal Cycle on Tidal Mixing and North Pacific Climate Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ullman, D. J.; Schmittner, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Norton, N. J.; Müller, M.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Oscillations in the moon's orbit around the earth modulate regional tidal dissipation with a periodicity of 18.6 years. In regions where the diurnal tidal constituents dominate diapycnal mixing, this Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC) may be significant enough to influence ocean circulation, sea surface temperature, and climate variability. Such periodicity in the LNC as an external forcing may provide a mechanistic source for Pacific decadal variability (i.e. Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) where diurnal tidal constituents are strong. We have introduced three enhancements to the latest version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to better simulate tidal-forced mixing. First, we have produced a sub-grid scale bathymetry scheme that better resolves the vertical distribution of the barotropic energy flux in regions where the native CESM grid does not resolve high spatial-scale bathymetric features. Second, we test a number of alternative barotropic tidal constituent energy flux fields that are derived from various satellite altimeter observations and tidal models. Third, we introduce modulations of the individual diurnal and semi-diurnal tidal constituents, ranging from monthly to decadal periods, as derived from the full lunisolar tidal potential. Using both ocean-only and fully-coupled configurations, we test the influence of these enhancements, particularly the LNC modulations, on ocean mixing and bidecadal climate variability in CESM.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3406856','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3406856"><span>1,500 year quantitative reconstruction of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Steinman, Byron A.; Abbott, Mark B.; Mann, Michael E.; Stansell, Nathan D.; Finney, Bruce P.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Multiple paleoclimate proxies are required for robust assessment of past hydroclimatic conditions. Currently, estimates of drought variability over the past several thousand years are based largely on tree-ring records. We produced a 1,500-y record of winter precipitation in the Pacific Northwest using a physical model-based analysis of lake sediment oxygen isotope data. Our results indicate that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (900–1300 AD) the Pacific Northwest experienced exceptional wetness in winter and that during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (1450–1850 AD) conditions were drier, contrasting with hydroclimatic anomalies in the desert Southwest and consistent with climate dynamics related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These findings are somewhat discordant with drought records from tree rings, suggesting that differences in seasonal sensitivity between the two proxies allow a more compete understanding of the climate system and likely explain disparities in inferred climate trends over centennial timescales. PMID:22753510</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4312543B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4312543B"><span>Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120013158','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120013158"><span>The Effects of Climate Variability on Phytoplankton Composition in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean using a Model and a Satellite-Derived Approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rousseaux, C. S.; Gregg, W. W.</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Compared the interannual variation in diatoms, cyanobacteria, coccolithophores and chlorophytes from the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model with those derived from satellite data (Hirata et al. 2011) between 1998 and 2006 in the Equatorial Pacific. Using NOBM, La Ni a events were characterized by an increase in diatoms (correlation with MEI, r=-0.81, P<0.05), while cyanobacteria concentrations decreased significantly (r=0.61; P<0.05). El Nino produced the reverse pattern, with cyanobacteria populations increasing while diatoms plummeted. This represented a radical shift in the phytoplankton community in response to climate variability. However, satellite-derived phytoplankton groups were all negatively correlated with climate variability (r ranged from -0.39 for diatoms to -0.64 for coccolithophores, P<0.05). Spatially, the satellite-derived approach was closer to an independent in situ dataset for all phytoplankton groups except diatoms than NOBM. However, the different responses of phytoplankton to intense interannual events in the Equatorial Pacific raises questions about the representation of phytoplankton dynamics in models and algorithms: is a phytoplankton community shift as in the model or an across-the-board change in abundances of all phytoplankton as in the satellite-derived approach.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5594U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5594U"><span>Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region, including its leading modes of variability, are made in the climate model simulations to elucidate the dynamics of TRB variations during periods of expansion and contraction over the last millennium.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025498','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70025498"><span>Taking the pulse of mountains: Ecosystem responses to climatic variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Fagre, Daniel B.; Peterson, David L.; Hessl, Amy E.</p> <p>2003-01-01</p> <p>An integrated program of ecosystem modeling and field studies in the mountains of the Pacific Northwest (U.S.A.) has quantified many of the ecological processes affected by climatic variability. Paleoecological and contemporary ecological data in forest ecosystems provided model parameterization and validation at broad spatial and temporal scales for tree growth, tree regeneration and treeline movement. For subalpine tree species, winter precipitation has a strong negative correlation with growth; this relationship is stronger at higher elevations and west-side sites (which have more precipitation). Temperature affects tree growth at some locations with respect to length of growing season (spring) and severity of drought at drier sites (summer). Furthermore, variable but predictable climate-growth relationships across elevation gradients suggest that tree species respond differently to climate at different locations, making a uniform response of these species to future climatic change unlikely. Multi-decadal variability in climate also affects ecosystem processes. Mountain hemlock growth at high-elevation sites is negatively correlated with winter snow depth and positively correlated with the winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. At low elevations, the reverse is true. Glacier mass balance and fire severity are also linked to PDO. Rapid establishment of trees in subalpine ecosystems during this century is increasing forest cover and reducing meadow cover at many subalpine locations in the western U.S.A. and precipitation (snow depth) is a critical variable regulating conifer expansion. Lastly, modeling potential future ecosystem conditions suggests that increased climatic variability will result in increasing forest fire size and frequency, and reduced net primary productivity in drier, east-side forest ecosystems. As additional empirical data and modeling output become available, we will improve our ability to predict the effects of climatic change across a broad range of climates and mountain ecosystems in the northwestern U.S.A.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13A1793K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS13A1793K"><span>Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/966901','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/966901"><span>Strong Links Between Teleconnections and Ecosystem Exchange Found at a Pacific Northwest Old-Growth Forest from Flux Tower and MODIS EVI Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Wharton, S; Chasmer, L; Falk, M</p> <p>2009-03-12</p> <p>Variability in three Pacific teleconnection patterns are examined to see if net carbon exchange at a low-elevation, old-growth forest is affected by climatic changes associated with these periodicities. Examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use nine years of eddy covariance CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O and energy fluxes measured at the Wind River AmeriFlux site, Washington, USA and eight years of tower-pixel remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to address this question. We compute a new Composite Climate Index (CCI) based on the three Pacific Oscillationsmore » to divide the measurement period into positive- (2003 and 2005), negative- (1999 and 2000) and neutral-phase climate years (2001, 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2007). The forest transitioned from an annual net carbon sink (NEP = + 217 g C m{sup -2} year{sup -1}, 1999) to a source (NEP = - 100 g C m{sup -2} year{sup -1}, 2003) during two dominant teleconnection patterns. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), water use efficiency (WUE) and light use efficiency (LUE) were significantly different (P < 0.01) during positive (NEP = -0.27 g C m{sup -2} day{sup -1}, WUE = 4.1 mg C/g H{sub 2}O, LUE = 0.94 g C MJ{sup -1}) and negative (NEP = +0.37 g C m{sup -2} day{sup -1}, WUE = 3.4 mg C/g H{sub 2}O, LUE = 0.83 g C MJ{sup -1}) climate phases. The CCI was linked to variability in the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) but not to MODIS Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). EVI was highest during negative climate phases (1999 and 2000) and was positively correlated with NEP and showed potential for using MODIS to estimate teleconnection-driven anomalies in ecosystem CO{sub 2} exchange in old-growth forests. This work suggests that any increase in the strength or frequency of ENSO coinciding with in-phase, low frequency Pacific oscillations (PDO and PNA) will likely increase CO{sub 2} uptake variability in Pacific Northwest conifer forests.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.5627S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.5627S"><span>Variability and trends in surface seawater pCO2 and CO2 flux in the Pacific Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sutton, A. J.; Wanninkhof, R.; Sabine, C. L.; Feely, R. A.; Cronin, M. F.; Weller, R. A.</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Variability and change in the ocean sink of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) have implications for future climate and ocean acidification. Measurements of surface seawater CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and wind speed from moored platforms are used to calculate high-resolution CO2 flux time series. Here we use the moored CO2 fluxes to examine variability and its drivers over a range of time scales at four locations in the Pacific Ocean. There are significant surface seawater pCO2, salinity, and wind speed trends in the North Pacific subtropical gyre, especially during winter and spring, which reduce CO2 uptake over the 10 year record of this study. Starting in late 2013, elevated seawater pCO2 values driven by warm anomalies cause this region to be a net annual CO2 source for the first time in the observational record, demonstrating how climate forcing can influence the timing of an ocean region shift from CO2 sink to source.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.3542C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.3542C"><span>Coral-Derived Western Pacific Tropical Sea Surface Temperatures During the Last Millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Tianran; Cobb, Kim M.; Roff, George; Zhao, Jianxin; Yang, Hongqiang; Hu, Minhang; Zhao, Kuan</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Reconstructions of ocean temperatures prior to the industrial era serve to constrain natural climate variability on decadal to centennial timescales, yet relatively few such observations are available from the west Pacific Warm Pool. Here we present multiple coral-based sea surface temperature reconstructions from Yongle Atoll, in the South China Sea over the last 1,250 years (762-2013 Common Era [CE]). Reconstructed coral Sr/Ca-sea surface temperatures indicate that the "Little Ice Age (1711-1817 CE)" period was 0.7°C cooler than the "Medieval Climate Anomaly (913-1132 CE)" and that late 20th century warming of the western Pacific is likely unprecedented over the past millennium. Our findings suggest that the Western Pacific Warm Pool may have expanded (contracted) during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (Little Ice Age), leading to a strengthening (weakening) of the Asian summer monsoon, as recorded in Chinese stalagmites.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ClDy...43.1357H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014ClDy...43.1357H"><span>Intensification of decadal and multi-decadal sea level variability in the western tropical Pacific during recent decades</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Alexander, Michael A.; Yamagata, Toshio; Yuan, Dongliang; Ishii, Masayoshi; Pegion, Philip; Zheng, Jian; Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Quan, Xiao-Wei; Leben, Robert R.</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Previous studies have linked the rapid sea level rise (SLR) in the western tropical Pacific (WTP) since the early 1990s to the Pacific decadal climate modes, notably the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the north Pacific or Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) considering its basin wide signature. Here, the authors investigate the changing patterns of decadal (10-20 years) and multidecadal (>20 years) sea level variability (global mean SLR removed) in the Pacific associated with the IPO, by analyzing satellite and in situ observations, together with reconstructed and reanalysis products, and performing ocean and atmosphere model experiments. Robust intensification is detected for both decadal and multidecadal sea level variability in the WTP since the early 1990s. The IPO intensity, however, did not increase and thus cannot explain the faster SLR. The observed, accelerated WTP SLR results from the combined effects of Indian Ocean and WTP warming and central-eastern tropical Pacific cooling associated with the IPO cold transition. The warm Indian Ocean acts in concert with the warm WTP and cold central-eastern tropical Pacific to drive intensified easterlies and negative Ekman pumping velocity in western-central tropical Pacific, thereby enhancing the western tropical Pacific SLR. On decadal timescales, the intensified sea level variability since the late 1980s or early 1990s results from the "out of phase" relationship of sea surface temperature anomalies between the Indian and central-eastern tropical Pacific since 1985, which produces "in phase" effects on the WTP sea level variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192772','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192772"><span>Recent climate extremes associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Funk, Chris; Hoell, Andrew</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Here we analyze empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of observations and a 30 member ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, and suggest that precipitation declines in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and the northern Middle East/Southwestern Asia (NME/SWE: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia north of 25°N, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon) may be interpreted as an interaction between La Niña-like decadal variability and the West Pacific Warming Mode (WPWM). While they exhibit different SST patterns, warming of the Pacific cold tongue (ENSO) and warming of the western Pacific (WPWM) produce similar warm pool diabatic forcing, Walker circulation anomalies, and terrestrial teleconnections. CESM1 SST EOFs indicate that both La Niña-like WPWM warming and El Niño-like east Pacific warming will be produced by climate change. The temporal frequency of these changes, however, are distinct. WPWM varies decadally, while ENSO is dominated by interannual variability. Future WPWM and ENSO warming may manifest as a tendency toward warm West Pacific SST, punctuated by extreme warm East Pacific events. WPWM EOFs from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation also identify dramatic WPWM-related declines in the Greater Horn of Africa and NME/SWE.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP43B1677M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP43B1677M"><span>Stable isotope records of convection variability in the West Pacific Warm Pool from fast-growing stalagmites</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Maupin, C. R.; Partin, J. W.; Quinn, T. M.; Shen, C.; Lin, K.; Taylor, F. W.; Sinclair, D. J.; Banner, J. L.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The potential response of the tropical Pacific to ongoing anthropogenic global warming conditions is informed by instrumental data, model predictions and climate proxy evidence. However, these distinct lines of evidence lead to opposing predictions in terms of the nature of interannual (ENSO) variability in a warming world. Interpreted in an ENSO framework, warming in the tropical Pacific may elicit a zonally asymmetrical response and lead to an intensified Walker Circulation (more ‘La Niña - like’). Alternatively, discrepancies in the increasing rates of latent heat flux and rainfall due to warming conditions may in fact reduce Walker Circulation (more ‘El Niño - like’). However, in order for such a framework to be useful in the context of future climate change, some knowledge of the natural variability in the strength of Walker Circulation components is required. The extant instrumental data are not of sufficient temporal length to fully assess the spectrum of natural variability in such climate components. Oxygen isotope records from tropical speleothems have been successfully used to document the nature of precessional forcing on precipitation and atmospheric circulation patterns throughout the tropics. Typical stalagmite growth rates of 10-100 μm yr-1 allow decadally resolved records of δ18O variability on time scales of centuries to millennia and beyond. Here we present the initial results from calcite stalagmites of heretofore unprecedented growth rates (~1-4 mm yr-1) in a cave in northwest Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands (~9°S, 160°E). These stalagmites have been absolutely dated by U-Th techniques and indicate stalagmite growth spanning ~1650 to 2010 CE. The δ18O records from stalagmites provide evidence for changes in convection in the equatorial WPWP region of the SPCZ: the rising limb of the Pacific Walker Circulation, and therefore provide critical insight into changes in zonal atmospheric circulation across the Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP51A1582S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP51A1582S"><span>Holocene Climate Variability in the Central North Pacific: An Organic Geochemical Record from Ka'au Crater Swamp, O'ahu, Hawai'i</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Street, J. H.; Beilman, D.; Timmermann, A.; Gaidos, E.; Paytan, A.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>North Pacific climate is known to have varied during the Holocene, with significant “downstream” effects on the regional climate and hydrology of western North America. Evidence from paleoclimatic studies along the northeast Pacific margin hints at several broad-scale regime shifts since the early Holocene, with spatial expressions analogous to those observed during phase shifts of the modern ENSO and PDO, though occurring on much longer (centennial to millennial) timescales. Nonetheless, the timing, magnitude and spatial patterns of Holocene rearrangements in oceanic and atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific remain incompletely defined. The main Hawaiian Islands (19 - 22 °N, 155 - 160 °W) are uniquely situated to “sample” climate variability in the subtropical, central North Pacific. Precipitation in Hawai’i is strongly influenced by the seasonal migration of the Pacific Anticyclone and the associated trade winds, and, during the winter, the frequency and intensity of westerly moisture-bearing storms. On interannual to decadal timescales, basin-wide circulation changes related to ENSO and PDO modulate trade wind strength and the occurrence of winter storm patterns, leading to local variations in precipitation. Terrestrial paleoclimatic records from Hawai’i are rare, but of great potential value to reconstruct aspects of central North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the Holocene, including the influence of the tropical ENSO system. In this study we present initial results from a 4.5 m, ~14 kyr sedimentary sequence recovered from Ka’au Crater Swamp, located near the leeward crest of the Ko’olau range of southeastern O’ahu, in a zone of high precipitation (>330 cm/yr). We utilize carbon and nitrogen elemental abundances (TOC, TN, C/N) and isotopic compositions (δ13C, δ15N) of bulk organic matter and ratios of biomarker compounds to reconstruct changes in vegetation, organic matter sources, and biogeochemical cycling in relation to climatic variables. Variation in elemental abundances and ratios, particularly in the mid-Holocene, suggest a sensitive response to climate. In addition, we evaluate the use of compound-specific hydrogen isotope (δD) measurements on plant leaf-wax compounds extracted from the sediment as a means of reconstructing paleohydrologic conditions and moisture sources to the site. Leaf-wax δD at Ka’au Crater is affected by changes in the isotopic composition precipitation as well as local water balance, both of which respond to variations in trade wind strength and the balance among the several winter circulation patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3986195','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3986195"><span>Glacial forcing of central Indonesian hydroclimate since 60,000 y B.P.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Russell, James M.; Vogel, Hendrik; Konecky, Bronwen L.; Bijaksana, Satria; Huang, Yongsong; Melles, Martin; Wattrus, Nigel; Costa, Kassandra; King, John W.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The Indo-Pacific warm pool houses the largest zone of deep atmospheric convection on Earth and plays a critical role in global climate variations. Despite the region’s importance, changes in Indo-Pacific hydroclimate on orbital timescales remain poorly constrained. Here we present high-resolution geochemical records of surface runoff and vegetation from sediment cores from Lake Towuti, on the island of Sulawesi in central Indonesia, that continuously span the past 60,000 y. We show that wet conditions and rainforest ecosystems on Sulawesi present during marine isotope stage 3 (MIS3) and the Holocene were interrupted by severe drying between ∼33,000 and 16,000 y B.P. when Northern Hemisphere ice sheets expanded and global temperatures cooled. Our record reveals little direct influence of precessional orbital forcing on regional climate, and the similarity between MIS3 and Holocene climates observed in Lake Towuti suggests that exposure of the Sunda Shelf has a weaker influence on regional hydroclimate and terrestrial ecosystems than suggested previously. We infer that hydrological variability in this part of Indonesia varies strongly in response to high-latitude climate forcing, likely through reorganizations of the monsoons and the position of the intertropical convergence zone. These findings suggest an important role for the tropical western Pacific in amplifying glacial–interglacial climate variability. PMID:24706841</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1324H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1324H"><span>Tropical Pacific Mean State and ENSO Variability across Marine Isotope Stage 3</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hertzberg, J. E.; Schmidt, M. W.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T. S.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the largest natural interannual signal in the Earth's climate system and has widespread effects on global climate that impact millions of people worldwide. A series of recent research studies predict an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events as Earth's climate continues to warm. In order for climate scientists to forecast how ENSO will evolve in response to global warming, it is necessary to have accurate, comprehensive records of how the system has naturally changed in the past, especially across past abrupt warming events. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty about past changes in tropical Pacific climate and how ENSO variability relates to the millennial-scale warming events of the last ice age. This study aims to reconstruct changes in the tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO variability across Marine Isotope Stage 3 from a sediment core recovered from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific cold tongue (MV1014-02-17JC, 0°10.8' S, 85°52.0' W, 2846 m water depth). In this region, thermocline temperatures are significantly correlated to ENSO variability - thus, we analyzed Mg/Ca ratios in the thermocline dwelling foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei as a proxy for thermocline temperatures in the past. Bulk ( 50 tests/sample) foraminifera Mg/Ca temperatures are used to reconstruct long-term variability in the mean state, while single shell ( 1 test/sample, 60 samples) Mg/Ca analyses are used to assess thermocline temperature variance. Based on our refined age model, we find that thermocline temperature increases of up to 3.5°C occur in-step with interstadial warming events recorded in Greenland ice cores. Cooler thermocline temperatures prevail during stadial intervals and Heinrich Events. This suggests that interstadials were more El-Niño like, while stadials and Heinrich Events were more La-Niña like. These temperature changes are compared to new records of dust flux, export productivity, and bottom-water oxygenation measured in the same core. We will also present single shell Mg/Ca results for an interstadial, stadial, and Heinrich Event interval.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CRGeo.350...76M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CRGeo.350...76M"><span>Temporal variability and annual budget of inorganic dissolved matter in Andean Pacific Rivers located along a climate gradient from northern Ecuador to southern Peru</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Moquet, Jean-Sébastien; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Morera, Sergio; Crave, Alain; Rau, Pedro; Vauchel, Philippe; Lagane, Christelle; Sondag, Francis; Lavado, Casimiro Waldo; Pombosa, Rodrigo; Martinez, Jean-Michel</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>In Ecuador and Peru, geochemical information from Pacific coastal rivers is limited and scarce. Here, we present an unedited database of major element concentrations from five HYBAM observatory stations monitored monthly between 4 and 10 years, and the discrete sampling of 23 Andean rivers distributed along the climate gradient of the Ecuadorian and Peruvian Pacific coasts. Concentration (C) vs. discharge (Q) relationships of the five monitored basins exhibit a clear dilution behavior for evaporites and/or pyrite solutes, while the solute concentrations delivered by other endmembers are less variable. Spatially, the annual specific fluxes for total dissolved solids (TDS), Ca2+, HCO3-, K+, Mg2+, and SiO2 are controlled on the first order by runoff variability, while Cl-, Na+ and SO42- are controlled by the occurrence of evaporites and/or pyrite. The entire Pacific basin in Ecuador and Peru exported 30 Mt TDS·yr-1, according to a specific flux of ∼70 t·km-2·yr-1. This show that, even under low rainfall conditions, this orogenic context is more active, in terms of solute production, than the global average.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active"><span>7</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_7 --> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP31E..03W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP31E..03W"><span>Century and Millennial-scale Changes in the Western Equatorial Pacific Thermocline in Relationship to Higher Latitude Processes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Weiss, T. L. C.; Linsley, B. K.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The last several glacial-interglacial cycles provide the perfect laboratory for investigating sea level, ocean circulation, and regional climate variability during pronounced global climate transitions. During the most recent deglaciation, the paleo-evidence for the Younger Dryas cold event and preceding meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A) and subsequent possible meltwater pulse 1B (MWP-1B) suggests rapid climate variability, in sharp contrast to the gradual deglacial forcing. MWP-1A has been documented in several locations, but there remains a controversy about whether deglacial MWP-1B existed and how much sea level rose across the interval from 11,450 to 11,000 kyr B.P. Due to its location and unusual bathymetry, the Sulu Sea is uniquely situated to monitor western Pacific boundary current (WBC) variability and changes in the proportion of North Pacific vs. South Pacific water in the far western Pacific near the entrance to the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Though the Sulu Sea is a relatively deep basin (>4,000 m), it is isolated from the South China Sea to the North and Sulawesi Sea to the south by shallow sills no deeper than 570 m that limit deepwater ventilation to the basin. As a result, deep basin water below the thermocline is a constant 10° C, a direct function of the ventilating WBCs. Observing past changes in thermocline conditions in the Sulu Sea should provide insight into WBC variability in addition to climate and circulation driven temperature and salinity variability in the South China and Sulawesi Seas. We will present δ18O evidence from the thermocline dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globorotalia tumida extracted from sediment core MD972141 in the Sulu Sea that the thermocline rapidly warmed and/or freshened near the time of MWP-1B. Our new G. tumida δ18O data indicates a 50% larger decrease in δ18O in the thermocline than observed in the surface dwelling Globigerinoides ruber. The Sulu Sea G. tumida δ18O results also indicate relatively cool and salty thermocline conditions from 10,000 kyr BP to 8,400 kyr BP. We will also present new G. tumida and benthic foraminifera Oridorsalis umbonatus δ18O and δ13C results from core MD972141 spanning the last 150 kyr and compare these records to existing G. ruber data from the same core with a focus on comparing Pacific WBC variability across Terminations I and II.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMED32A..06K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMED32A..06K"><span>"Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the Pacific RISA has done, we found that many stakeholders who regularly make climate sensitive decisions do not always realize it. By viewing videos like the Climate Matters Documoments, it may help a wide variety of community stakeholders and natural resource decision makers realize the myriad ways in which climate change affects their communities and jobs. In addition, when viewed outside of the Pacific Islands region, the different stories told in the Documoments help foster a greater understanding of the unique climate-related issues faced within the Hawaiian Islands.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMOS41A1541G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMOS41A1541G"><span>Spice: Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation and Climate Experiment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ganachaud, A. S.; Melet, A.; Maes, C.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>South Pacific oceanic waters are carried from the subtropical gyre centre in the westward flowing South Equatorial Current (SEC), towards the southwest Pacific-a major circulation pathway that redistributes water from the subtropics to the equator and Southern Ocean. The transit in the Coral Sea is potentially of great importance to tropical climate prediction because changes in either the temperature or the amount of water arriving at the equator have the capability to modulate ENSO and produce basin-scale climate feedbacks. The south branch is associated with comparable impacts in the Tasman Sea area. The Southwest Pacific is a region of complex circulation, with the SEC splitting in strong zonal jets upon encountering island archipelagos. Those jets partition on the Australian eastern boundary to feed the East Australian Current for the southern branch and the North Queensland Current and eventually the Equatorial Undercurrent for the northern branch. On average, the oceanic circulation is driven by the Trade Winds, and subject to substantial variability, related with the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) position and intensity. The circulation, and its influence on remote and regional climate, is poorly understood due to the lack of appropriate measurements. Ocean and atmosphere scientists from Australia, France, New Zealand, the United States and Pacific Island countries initiated an international research project under the auspices of CLIVAR to comprehend the southwest Pacific Ocean circulation and its direct and indirect influence on the climate and environment. SPICE is a regionally-coordinated experiment to measure, study and monitor the ocean circulation and the SPCZ, to validate and improve numerical models, and to integrate with assimilating systems. This ongoing project reflects a strong sense that substantial progress can be made through collaboration among South Pacific national research groups, coordinated with broader South Pacific projects.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMPP22B..06U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMPP22B..06U"><span>Holocene ITCZ and ENSO-driven climate variability from the Panama isthmus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Urrego, D. H.; Aronson, R. B.; Bush, M. B.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>Holocene climate has previously been considered relatively stable compared to Pleistocene fluctuations. Recent paleoclimatic reconstructions have shown, however, that Holocene climatic variability is large and that the key to understanding and predicting responses to current climate change could lie in Holocene climatic history. In tropical regions, one of the most important oceanic-atmospheric systems regulating present and past interannual climatic fluctuations is the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Several hypotheses have been postulated to explain Holocene climate oscillations and their impacts in Northern South America. One of these hypotheses is that reduced precipitation during the mid-Holocene in the Caribbean and off the coast of Venezuela resulted from a southward migration of the ITCZ’s mean annual position (1, 2). In turn, this southward movement was associated with changes in the location of warm pools and insolation maxima regions in the tropical Atlantic. However, oscillations in Pacific warm pools should be expected to influence the annual ITCZ cycle as well. The latitudinal positions of these warm pools in the Pacific are directly influenced by ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), and are predicted to move south during El Niño (warm-ENSO) years. A mid-Holocene increase in the frequency of warm ENSO events is reported in the eastern Pacific after 6 ka (3, 4), and although this change occurred more than a thousand years earlier than the southward migrations of the ITCZ reconstructed from tropical Atlantic systems, we hypothesize that there must be a link between these two apparently separate events. Reconciling the roles of Atlantic versus Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions, and the effect of Pacific phenomena like ENSO on the annual position of the ITCZ are therefore crucial to understand climatic variability in tropical America. Lago La Yeguada is located in the Isthmus of Panama and its climate is determined mainly by the ITCZ, ENSO, and the effects of trade-wind-driven moisture exchanges between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans on the position of the ITCZ. A finely laminated sediment core from La Yeguada represents one of the most detailed Holocene climatic archives for the Isthmus. The pollen and charcoal records from La Yeguada were previously published (5) but detailed paleolimnological analyses were not conducted. Results from high-resolution x-ray fluorescence analyses of conspicuous changes in lamination patterns appear to correlate with mid-Holocene changes in ITCZ and ENSO systems recorded in the Cariaco Basin (2) and the eastern Pacific (3). A third climatic forcing associated with changes in upwelling in the Panama Bight was also observed. We conclude that mid-Holocene changes in ITCZ and ENSO systems had significant effects in both terrestrial and marine communities, as evidenced in the pollen record of La Yeguada and unpublished coral reef records from the Panama Bay. References: (1) Hodell, DA et al (1991) Nature, 352, 790-793; (2) Haug, GH et al (2001) Science, 293, 1304-1308; (3) Moy, CM et al (2002) Nature 420: 162-165; (4) Riedinger, MA et al (2002) Journal of Paleolimnology 27: 1-7; (5) Bush, MB et al (1990) Journal of Vegetation Science 1:105-118.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMIN11C1543C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMIN11C1543C"><span>Climate change and marine ecosystems (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chavez, F.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems are pervasive. Those associated with the interannual El Ni~no phenomena are the most studied and better understood. Longer term variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) have become more evident as the present-day instrumental record has increased in length. The biological (chlorophyll to fish) and chemical (nutrients, oxygen, carbon) consequences of these climate-driven variations are discussed with an emphasis on the eastern and equatorial Pacific. During warmer periods biological productivity in the eastern Pacific is reduced and larger mobile organisms dramatically change their abundance and/or geographic distributions. At the same time biological productivity in the western Pacific increases highlighting that present (and future) climate-driven changes in biological productivity and chemical distributions are not (and will not) be uniform. The presentation documents present day variations using global scale information from satellites and in situ databases, model simulations and data collected by intensive local time series. Paradoxically longer term changes associated with phenomena like the Little Ice Age (LIA), captured in the sedimentary record, do not seem to follow the same warm (poor), cold (productive) patterns in the eastern Pacific, in fact these are reversed. The presentation ends with speculation regarding long term changes associated with a warmer world.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26053439','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26053439"><span>Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Freeman, Lauren A</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JOL....36..193Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JOL....36..193Z"><span>An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70175186','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70175186"><span>River chemistry as a monitor of Yosemite Park mountain hydroclimates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Peterson, David; Smith, Richard; Hager, Stephen; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Dettinger, Michael; Huber, King</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>Climate is the major source of variability in U.S. and global water resources. For example, large-scale variations in the global atmosphere and the Pacific Ocean are responsible for much of the variability in river discharge in Hawaii, Alaska, the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and the U.S. Southwest [Cayan and Peterson, 1989], and thus are closely linked to water and energy resources of the western United States [Cayan et al., 2003].</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/45784','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/45784"><span>Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Charles Luce; Brian Staab; Marc Kramer; Seth Wenger; Dan Isaak; Callie McConnell</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Estimating the thermal response of streams to a warming climate is important for prioritizing native fish conservation efforts. While there are plentiful estimates of air temperature responses to climate change, the sensitivity of streams, particularly small headwater streams, to warming temperatures is less well understood. A substantial body of literature correlates...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=345511','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=345511"><span>Effects of climatic conditions and management practices on agricultural carbon and water budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11052941','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11052941"><span>Impacts of climatic change and fishing on Pacific salmon abundance over the past 300 years.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Finney, B P; Gregory-Eaves, I; Sweetman, J; Douglas, M S; Smol, J P</p> <p>2000-10-27</p> <p>The effects of climate variability on Pacific salmon abundance are uncertain because historical records are short and are complicated by commercial harvesting and habitat alteration. We use lake sediment records of delta15N and biological indicators to reconstruct sockeye salmon abundance in the Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island regions of Alaska over the past 300 years. Marked shifts in populations occurred over decades during this period, and some pronounced changes appear to be related to climatic change. Variations in salmon returns due to climate or harvesting can have strong impacts on sockeye nursery lake productivity in systems where adult salmon carcasses are important nutrient sources.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150022193','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150022193"><span>Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lewis, Sophie; Legrande, A. N.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5459944','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5459944"><span>Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Liu, Yu; Cobb, Kim M.; Song, Huiming; Li, Qiang; Li, Ching-Yao; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; An, Zhisheng; Zhou, Weijian; Cai, Qiufang; Li, Jinbao; Leavitt, Steven W.; Sun, Changfeng; Mei, Ruochen; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chan, Ming-Hsun; Sun, Junyan; Yan, Libin; Lei, Ying; Ma, Yongyong; Li, Xuxiang; Chen, Deliang; Linderholm, Hans W.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies. PMID:28555638</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123..344H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123..344H"><span>Interannual Variability of Regional Hadley Circulation Intensity Over Western Pacific During Boreal Winter and Its Climatic Impact Over Asia-Australia Region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Huang, Ruping; Chen, Shangfeng; Chen, Wen; Hu, Peng</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This study investigates interannual variability of boreal winter regional Hadley circulation over western Pacific (WPHC) and its climatic impacts. A WPHC intensity index (WPHCI) is defined as the vertical shear of the divergent meridional winds. It shows that WPHCI correlates well with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To investigate roles of the ENSO-unrelated part of WPHCI (WPHCIres), variables that are linearly related to the Niño-3 index have been removed. It reveals that meridional sea surface temperature gradient over the western Pacific plays an essential role in modulating the WPHCIres. The climatic impacts of WPHCIres are further investigated. Below-normal (above-normal) precipitation appears over south China (North Australia) when WPHCIres is stronger. This is due to the marked convergence (divergence) anomalies at the upper troposphere, divergence (convergence) at the lower troposphere, and the accompanied downward (upward) motion over south China (North Australia), which suppresses (enhances) precipitation there. In addition, a pronounced increase in surface air temperature (SAT) appears over south and central China when WPHCIres is stronger. A temperature diagnostic analysis suggests that the increase in SAT tendency over central China is primarily due to the warm zonal temperature advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating. In addition, the increase in SAT tendency over south China is primarily contributed by the warm meridional temperature advection. Further analysis shows that the correlation of WPHCIres with the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is weak. Thus, this study may provide additional sources besides EAWM and ENSO to improve understanding of the Asia-Australia climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS43C..03S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS43C..03S"><span>The impact of multi-decadal sub-surface circulation changes on sea surface chlorophyll patterns in the tropical Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schollaert Uz, S.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Smith, T. M.; Evans, M. N.; Brown, C.; Hackert, E. C.; Wang, X.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The tropical Pacific is a region of strong forcing where physical oceanography primarily controls biological variability over the seasonal to interannual time scales observed since dedicated ocean color satellite remote sensing began in 1997. To quantify how multi-decadal, climate-scale changes impact marine biological dynamics, we used the correlation with sea-surface temperature and height to reconstruct a 50-year time series of surface chlorophyll concentrations. The reconstruction demonstrates greatest skill away from the coast and within 10o of the equator where chlorophyll variance is greatest and primarily associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and secondarily associated with decadal variability. We observe significant basin-wide differences between east and central Pacific events when the El Niño events are strong: chlorophyll increases with La Niña and decreases with El Niño, with larger declines east of 180o for remotely-forced east Pacific events and west of 180o for locally-forced central Pacific events. Chlorophyll variations also reflect the physical dynamics of Pacific decadal variability with small but significant differences between cool and warm eras: consistent with advection variability west of 180o and likely driven by subsurface changes in the nutricline depth between 110-140oW. Comparisons with output from a fully-coupled biogeochemical model support the hypothesis that this anomalous region is controlled by lower frequency changes in subsurface circulation patterns that transport nutrients to the surface. Basin-wide chlorophyll distributions exhibiting spatial heterogeneity in response to multi-decadal climate forcing imply similar long-term changes in phytoplankton productivity, with implications for the marine food web and the ocean's role as a carbon sink.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP21A1372D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMPP21A1372D"><span>A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7909V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7909V"><span>Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>von Känel, Lukas; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Gruber, Nicolas</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998-2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP22A..07G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP22A..07G"><span>Indo-Pacific hydroclimate over the past millennium and links with global climate variabilty</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Griffiths, M. L.; Drysdale, R.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Hua, Q.; Johnson, K. R.; Gagan, M. K.; Cole, J. E.; Cook, B. I.; Zhao, J. X.; Hellstrom, J. C.; Hantoro, W. S.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) are the dominant modes of hydroclimate variability in the tropical Pacific and have far-reaching impacts on Earth's climate. Experiments combining instrumental records with climate-model simulations have highlighted the dominant role of the Pacific Walker circulation in shaping recent trends in global temperatures (Kosaka and Xie, 2013, 2016). However, the paucity of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records of deep atmospheric convection over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) precludes a comprehensive assessment as to role of the tropical Pacific in modulating radiative-forced shifts in global temperature on multidecadal to centennial timescales. Here we present a suite of new high-resolution oxygen-isotope records from Indo-Pacific speleothems, which, based on modern rainfall and cave drip-water monitoring studies, along with trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) analyses, are interpreted to reflect changes in Australasian monsoon variability during the Common Era (C.E.). Our results reveal a protracted decline in southern Indonesian monsoon rainfall between 1000-1400 C.E. but stronger between 1500-1900 C.E. These centennial-scale patterns over southern Indonesia are consistent with other proxy records from the region but anti-phased with records from India and China, supporting the paradigm that Northern Hemisphere cooling increased the interhemispheric thermal gradient, displacing the Australasian ITCZ southward. However, our findings are also compatible with a recent synthesis of paleohydrologic records for the Australasian monsoon region, which, collectively, suggest that rather than moving southward during the LIA, the latitudinal range of monsoon-ITCZ migration probably contracted equatorward (Yan et al., 2015). This proposed LIA ITCZ contraction likely occurred in parallel with a strengthening of the Walker circulation (as indicated through comparison with our hydroclimate records from the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and western Indian Ocean, and eastern Australia), and thus, the tropical Pacific may have played a critical role in amplifying the radiative-forced global cooling already underway.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015Sci...347..255F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015Sci...347..255F"><span>Reduced El Niño-Southern Oscillation during the Last Glacial Maximum</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ford, Heather L.; Ravelo, A. Christina; Polissar, Pratigya J.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of global interannual variability, but its response to climate change is uncertain. Paleoclimate records from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provide insight into ENSO behavior when global boundary conditions (ice sheet extent, atmospheric partial pressure of CO2) were different from those today. In this work, we reconstruct LGM temperature variability at equatorial Pacific sites using measurements of individual planktonic foraminifera shells. A deep equatorial thermocline altered the dynamics in the eastern equatorial cold tongue, resulting in reduced ENSO variability during the LGM compared to the Late Holocene. These results suggest that ENSO was not tied directly to the east-west temperature gradient, as previously suggested. Rather, the thermocline of the eastern equatorial Pacific played a decisive role in the ENSO response to LGM climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70021246','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70021246"><span>Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.</p> <p>1999-01-01</p> <p>Changing patterns of correlations between the historical average June-November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and October-March precipitation totals for 84 climate divisions in the western US indicate a large amount of variability in SOI/precipitation relations on decadal time scales. Correlations of western US precipitation with SOI and other indices of tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes were much weaker from 1920 to 1950 than during recent decades. This variability in teleconnections is associated with the character of tropical air-sea interactions as indexed by the number of out-of-phase SOI/tropical sea surface temperature (SST) episodes, and with decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western US are strong when SOI and NINO3 are out-of-phase and PDO is negative. ENSO teleconnections are weak when SOI and NINO3 are weakly correlated and PDO is positive. Decadal modes of tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability are important indicators of periods when ENSO indices, like SOI, can be used as reliable predictors of winter precipitation in the US.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active"><span>8</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_8 --> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...621251D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatSR...621251D"><span>The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26884089','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26884089"><span>The Footprint of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation in Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; Song, Fengfei; Wu, Bo; Chen, Xiaolong</p> <p>2016-02-17</p> <p>Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871-2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcings account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO's cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. The decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027012','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70027012"><span>Decadal-scale climate drivers for glacial dynamics in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Pederson, G.T.; Fagre, D.B.; Gray, S.T.; Graumlich, L.J.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>Little Ice Age (14th-19th centuries A.D.) glacial maxima and 20th century retreat have been well documented in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. However, the influence of regional and Pacific Basin driven climate variability on these events is poorly understood. We use tree-ring reconstructions of North Pacific surface temperature anomalies and summer drought as proxies for winter glacial accumulation and summer ablation, respectively, over the past three centuries. These records show that the 1850's glacial maximum was likely produced by ???70 yrs of cool/wet summers coupled with high snowpack. Post 1850, glacial retreat coincides with an extended period (>50 yr) of summer drought and low snowpack culminating in the exceptional events of 1917 to 1941 when retreat rates for some glaciers exceeded 100 m/yr. This research highlights potential local and ocean-based drivers of glacial dynamics, and difficulties in separating the effects of global climate change from regional expressions of decadal-scale climate variability. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatSR...743429L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatSR...743429L"><span>A potential large and persistent black carbon forcing over Northern Pacific inferred from satellite observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Zhongshu; Liu, Junfeng; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Li, Xiaoyuan; Fan, Songmiao; Horowitz, Larry W.; He, Cenlin; Yi, Kan; Tao, Shu</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Black carbon (BC) aerosol strongly absorbs solar radiation, which warms climate. However, accurate estimation of BC’s climate effect is limited by the uncertainties of its spatiotemporal distribution, especially over remote oceanic areas. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation (HIPPO) program from 2009 to 2011 intercepted multiple snapshots of BC profiles over Pacific in various seasons, and revealed a 2 to 5 times overestimate of BC by current global models. In this study, we compared the measurements from aircraft campaigns and satellites, and found a robust association between BC concentrations and satellite-retrieved CO, tropospheric NO2, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) (R2 > 0.8). This establishes a basis to construct a satellite-based column BC approximation (sBC*) over remote oceans. The inferred sBC* shows that Asian outflows in spring bring much more BC aerosols to the mid-Pacific than those occurring in other seasons. In addition, inter-annual variability of sBC* is seen over the Northern Pacific, with abundances varying consistently with the springtime Pacific/North American (PNA) index. Our sBC* dataset infers a widespread overestimation of BC loadings and BC Direct Radiative Forcing by current models over North Pacific, which further suggests that large uncertainties exist on aerosol-climate interactions over other remote oceanic areas beyond Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28266532','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28266532"><span>A potential large and persistent black carbon forcing over Northern Pacific inferred from satellite observations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Li, Zhongshu; Liu, Junfeng; Mauzerall, Denise L; Li, Xiaoyuan; Fan, Songmiao; Horowitz, Larry W; He, Cenlin; Yi, Kan; Tao, Shu</p> <p>2017-03-07</p> <p>Black carbon (BC) aerosol strongly absorbs solar radiation, which warms climate. However, accurate estimation of BC's climate effect is limited by the uncertainties of its spatiotemporal distribution, especially over remote oceanic areas. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation (HIPPO) program from 2009 to 2011 intercepted multiple snapshots of BC profiles over Pacific in various seasons, and revealed a 2 to 5 times overestimate of BC by current global models. In this study, we compared the measurements from aircraft campaigns and satellites, and found a robust association between BC concentrations and satellite-retrieved CO, tropospheric NO 2 , and aerosol optical depth (AOD) (R 2 > 0.8). This establishes a basis to construct a satellite-based column BC approximation (sBC*) over remote oceans. The inferred sBC* shows that Asian outflows in spring bring much more BC aerosols to the mid-Pacific than those occurring in other seasons. In addition, inter-annual variability of sBC* is seen over the Northern Pacific, with abundances varying consistently with the springtime Pacific/North American (PNA) index. Our sBC* dataset infers a widespread overestimation of BC loadings and BC Direct Radiative Forcing by current models over North Pacific, which further suggests that large uncertainties exist on aerosol-climate interactions over other remote oceanic areas beyond Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1816170W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1816170W"><span>Indo-Pacific ENSO modes in a double-basin Zebiak-Cane model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wieners, Claudia; de Ruijter, Will; Dijkstra, Henk</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>We study Indo-Pacific interactions on ENSO timescales in a double-basin version of the Zebiak-Cane ENSO model, employing both time integrations and bifurcation analysis (continuation methods). The model contains two oceans (the Indian and Pacific Ocean) separated by a meridional wall. Interaction between the basins is possible via the atmosphere overlaying both basins. We focus on the effect of the Indian Ocean (both its mean state and its variability) on ENSO stability. In addition, inspired by analysis of observational data (Wieners et al, Coherent tropical Indo-Pacific interannual climate variability, in review), we investigate the effect of state-dependent atmospheric noise. Preliminary results include the following: 1) The background state of the Indian Ocean stabilises the Pacific ENSO (i.e. the Hopf bifurcation is shifted to higher values of the SST-atmosphere coupling), 2) the West Pacific cooling (warming) co-occurring with El Niño (La Niña) is essential to simulate the phase relations between Pacific and Indian SST anomalies, 3) a non-linear atmosphere is needed to simulate the effect of the Indian Ocean variability onto the Pacific ENSO that is suggested by observations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7438Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7438Y"><span>The role of South Pacific atmospheric variability in the development of different types of ENSO</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>You, Yujia; Furtado, Jason C.</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Recent advances in tropical Pacific climate variability have focused on understanding the development of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, specifically the types or "flavors" of ENSO (i.e., central versus eastern Pacific events). While precursors to ENSO events exist, distinguishing the particular flavor of the expected ENSO event remains unresolved. This study offers a new look at ENSO predictability using South Pacific atmospheric variability during austral winter as an indicator. The positive phase of the leading mode of South Pacific sea level pressure variability, which we term the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO), exhibits a meridional dipole with with a(n) (anti)cyclonic anomaly dominating the subtropics (extratropics/high latitudes). Once energized, the cyclonic anomalies in the subtropical node of the SPO weaken the southeasterly trade winds and promote the charging of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, giving rise to eastern Pacific ENSO events. Indeed, the type of ENSO event can be determined accurately using only the magnitude and phase of the SPO during austral winter as a predictor (17 out of 23 cases). The SPO may also play a role in explaining the asymmetry of warm and cold events. Collectively, our findings present a new perspective on ENSO-South Pacific interactions that can advance overall understanding of the ENSO system and enhance its predictability across multiple timescales.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC53A..07L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC53A..07L"><span>Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the global warming hiatus. The tropical Atlantic warming is likely due to radiative forcing and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our study suggests that the AMOC may force the decadal variability of the tropical ocean and atmosphere, and thus contributes to the decadal predictability of the global climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.129...97S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ThApC.129...97S"><span>Climatic variability of river outflow in the Pantanal region and the influence of sea surface temperature</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Silva, Carlos Batista; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Ambrizzi, Tércio</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>This paper investigates possible linear relationships between climate, hydrology, and oceanic surface variability in the Pantanal region (in South America's central area), over interannual and interdecadal time ranges. In order to verify the mentioned relations, lagged correlation analysis and linear adjustment between river discharge at the Pantanal region and sea surface temperature were used. Composite analysis for atmospheric fields, air humidity flux divergence, and atmospheric circulation at low and high levels, for the period between 1970 and 2003, was analyzed. Results suggest that the river discharge in the Pantanal region is linearly associated with interdecadal and interannual oscillations in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, making them good predictors to continental hydrological variables. Considering oceanic areas, 51 % of the annual discharge in the Pantanal region can be linearly explained by mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the Subtropical North Pacific, Tropical North Pacific, Extratropical South Pacific, and Extratropical North Atlantic over the period. Considering a forecast approach in seasonal scale, 66 % of the monthly discharge variance in Pantanal, 3 months ahead of SST, is explained by the oceanic variables, providing accuracy around 65 %. Annual discharge values in the Pantanal region are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability (with 52 % of linear correlation), making it possible to consider an interdecadal variability and a consequent subdivision of the whole period in three parts: 1st (1970-1977), 2nd (1978-1996), and 3rd (1997-2003) subperiods. The three subperiods coincide with distinct PDO phases: negative, positive, and negative, respectively. Convergence of humidity flux at low levels and the circulation pattern at high levels help to explain the drier and wetter subperiods. During the wetter 2nd subperiod, the air humidity convergence at low levels is much more evident than during the other two drier subperiods, which mostly show air humidity divergence. While the drier periods are particularly characterized by the strengthening of northerly wind over the center of South America, including the Pantanal region, the wetter period is characterized by its weakening. The circulation pattern at 850 hPa levels during the drier subperiods shows anticyclonic anomalies centered over east central South America. Also, the drier subperiods (1st and 3rd) are characterized by negative stream function anomalies over southeastern South America and adjacent South Atlantic, and the wetter subperiod is characterized by positive stream function anomalies. In the three subperiods, one can see mean atmospheric patterns associated with Rossby wave propagation coming from the South Pacific basin—similar to the Pacific South America pattern, but with reverse signals between the wetter and the drier periods. This result suggests a possible relationship between climatic patterns over southeastern South America regions and the Pacific conditions in a decadal scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.3787P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.3787P"><span>Interannual variability of western North Pacific SST anomalies and its impact on North Pacific and North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Park, Jae-Heung; An, Soon-Il; Kug, Jong-Seong</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>In this study, the interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) and its atmospheric teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) toward the North Pacific/North America during boreal winter are investigated. First, we defined the WNP mode as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of SST anomalies over the WNP region (100-165°E, 0-35°N), of which the principle component time-series are significantly correlated with several well-known climate modes such as the warm pool mode which is the second EOF mode of the tropical to North Pacific SST anomalies, North Pacific oscillation (NPO), North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO), and central Pacific (CP)-El Niño at 95% confidence level, but not correlated with the eastern Pacific (EP)-El Niño. The warm phase of the WNP mode (sea surface warming) is initiated by anomalous southerly winds through reduction of wind speed with the background of northerly mean winds over the WNP during boreal winter, i.e., reduced evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, the atmospheric response to the SST warming pattern and its diabatic heating further enhance the southerly wind anomaly, referred to the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback. Thus, the WNP mode is developed and maintained through winter until spring, when the northerly mean wind disappears. Furthermore, it is also known that anomalous upper-level divergence associated with WNP mode leads to the NPO-like structure over the North Pacific and the east-west pressure contrast pattern over the North America through Rossby wave propagation, impacting the climate over the North Pacific and North America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PrOce.159...86K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PrOce.159...86K"><span>Multidecadal, centennial, and millennial variability in sardine and anchovy abundances in the western North Pacific and climate-fish linkages during the late Holocene</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kuwae, Michinobu; Yamamoto, Masanobu; Sagawa, Takuya; Ikehara, Ken; Irino, Tomohisa; Takemura, Keiji; Takeoka, Hidetaka; Sugimoto, Takashige</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Paleorecords of pelagic fish abundance could better define the nature of fishery productivity dynamics and help understand responses of pelagic fish stocks to long-term climate changes. We report a high-resolution record of sardine and anchovy scale deposition rates (SDRs) from Beppu Bay, Southwest Japan, showing multidecadal and centennial variability in the abundance of Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy during the last 2850 years. Variations in the sardine SDR showed periodicities at ∼50, ∼100, and ∼300 yr, while variations in the anchovy SDR showed periodicities at ∼30 and ∼260 yr. Comparisons between and correlation analyses of the time series of the sardine and anchovy SDRs demonstrate that there is not a consistent out-of-phase relationship during the last 2850 years. This indicates that the multidecadal alternations in the sardine and anchovy populations commonly seen in the 20th century did not necessarily occur during earlier periods. The Japanese sardine SDR record shows a long-term decreasing trend in the amplitudes of the multidecadal to centennial fluctuations. This decreasing trend may have resulted from an increasing trend in the winter sea surface temperature in the western North Pacific. The multicentennial variability in sardine abundance during the last millennium is consistent with the variabilities in the abnormal snow index in East Asia and the American tree ring-based Pacific Decadal Oscillation index, suggesting a basin-wide or regional climate-marine ecosystem linkage.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A22F..08M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A22F..08M"><span>Major collapse of the South Pacific Convergence Zone in the future and its consequences on tropical cyclones.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Menkes, C.; Dutheil, C.; Bador, M.; Lengaigne, M.; Lefèvre, J.; Jourdain, N.; Jullien, S.; Vialard, J.; Peltier, A.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is poorly represented in global climate models, with trademark biases such as the "double ITCZ" or related cold tongue biases. Such biases decrease our confidence in climate change projections for this region. We first show that WRF atmospheric simulations using a 1°x1° regional configuration capture the SPCZ mean state and interannual variability well over the 1980-2016 period. We then perform climate change experiments by adding the RCP8.5, 2080-2100 CMIP5 multi-model mean boundary anomalies to the present conditions. We find a 4° equatorward shift of the SPCZ west of 170°W, and associated 40% rainfall reduction in the southwestern Pacific. These results strongly contrast with previous studies based on CMIP5 simulations that suggest a much weaker southwestern Pacific drying ( 7%). Regional sensitivity experiments show that this CMIP5 weak response can be tracked to climatological CMIP5 SST biases, which weaken the humidity transport reduction in the south Pacific in the future and result in an underestimated projected drying of the southwest Pacific. Our experiments also point toward a large increase in the future SPCZ variability with increased frequency of zonal SPCZ events. Next we explore the fate of tropical cyclones by downscaling the previous models to 20 km. The seasonal and spatial distribution of TC genesis and occurrence are in good agreement with the observations albeit with weaker than observed annual numbers. Our reference simulation is able to simulate intense category 4 and 5 TCs. In the future climate, we show a drastic decrease in the number of TCs ( 75%), and the disappearance of the most intense (Cat 4-5) cyclones. Additional regional simulations using a completely different set of physical parameterizations yield very similar results for the SPCZ collapse, including the strong decrease of TC numbers ( 63%), underlining the robustness of our results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000955&hterms=drought+california&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Ddrought%2Bcalifornia','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000955&hterms=drought+california&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Ddrought%2Bcalifornia"><span>Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..12212194S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..12212194S"><span>Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter "rainy season." Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2373Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2373Y"><span>Underlying mechanisms leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition are unchanged under global warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yun, Kyung-Sook; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Ha, Kyung-Ja</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>El Niño's transitions play critical roles in modulating severe weather and climate events. Therefore, understanding the dynamic factors leading to El Niño's transitions and its future projection is a great challenge in predicting the diverse socioeconomic influences of El Niño over the globe. This study focuses on two dynamic factors controlling the El Niño-to-La Niña transition from the present climate and to future climate, using the observation, the historical and the RCP8.5 simulations of Coupled Model Intercomparison phase 5 climate models. The first is the inter-basin coupling between the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific through the subtropical high variability. The second is the enhanced sensitivity between sea surface temperature and a deep tropical convection in the central tropical Pacific during the El Niño's developing phase. We show that the dynamic factors leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transition in the present climate are unchanged in spite of the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. We argue that the two dynamic factors are strongly constrained by the climatological precipitation distribution over the central tropical Pacific and western North Pacific as little changed from the present climate to future climate. This implies that two dynamical processes leading to El Niño-to-La Niña transitions in the present climate will also play a robust role in global warming.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B31G0550L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B31G0550L"><span>Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon cycling. Pan, Y. et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world's forests. Science 333, 988-993 (2011) Brienen, Roel J. W. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344-348 (2015) Botta, A. et al. Long-term variations of climate and carbon fluxes over the Amazon basin. Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (2002)</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018E%26ES..118a2052Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018E%26ES..118a2052Y"><span>Coral based-ENSO/IOD related climate variability in Indonesia: a review</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yudawati Cahyarini, Sri; Henrizan, Marfasran</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Indonesia is located in the prominent site to study climate variability as it lies between Pacific and Indian Ocean. It has consequences to the regional climate in Indonesia that its climate variability is influenced by the climate events in the Pacific oceans (e.g. ENSO) and in the Indian ocean (e.g. IOD), and monsoon as well as Indonesian Throughflow (ITF). Northwestern monsoon causes rainfall in the region of Indonesia, while reversely Southwestern monsoon causes dry season around Indonesia. The ENSO warm phase called El Nino causes several droughts in Indonesian region, reversely the La Nina causes flooding in some regions in Indonesia. However, the impact of ENSO in Indonesia is different from one place to the others. Having better understanding on the climate phenomenon and its impact to the region requires long time series climate data. Paleoclimate study which provides climate data back into hundreds to thousands even to million years overcome this requirement. Coral Sr/Ca can provide information on past sea surface temperature (SST) and paired Sr/Ca and δ18O may be used to reconstruct variations in the precipitation balance (salinity) at monthly to annual interannual resolution. Several climate studies based on coral geochemical records in Indonesia show that coral Sr/Ca and δ18O from Indonesian records SST and salinity respectively. Coral Sr/Ca from inshore Seribu islands complex shows more air temperature rather than SST. Modern coral from Timor shows the impact of ENSO and IOD to the saliniy and SST is different at Timor sea. This result should be taken into account when interpreting Paleoclimate records over Indonesia. Timor coral also shows more pronounced low frequency SST variability compared to the SST reanalysis (model). The longer data of low frequency variability will improve the understanding of warming trend in this climatically important region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70144530','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70144530"><span>Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Black, Bryan A.; Dunham, Jason B.; Blundon, Brett W.; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1–September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982–2003; PC1mussel) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1discharge; r = −0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1mussel and PC1discharge were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25258169','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25258169"><span>Long-term growth-increment chronologies reveal diverse influences of climate forcing on freshwater and forest biota in the Pacific Northwest.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Black, Bryan A; Dunham, Jason B; Blundon, Brett W; Brim-Box, Jayne; Tepley, Alan J</p> <p>2015-02-01</p> <p>Analyses of how organisms are likely to respond to a changing climate have focused largely on the direct effects of warming temperatures, though changes in other variables may also be important, particularly the amount and timing of precipitation. Here, we develop a network of eight growth-increment width chronologies for freshwater mussel species in the Pacific Northwest, United States and integrate them with tree-ring data to evaluate how terrestrial and aquatic indicators respond to hydroclimatic variability, including river discharge and precipitation. Annual discharge averaged across water years (October 1-September 30) was highly synchronous among river systems and imparted a coherent pattern among mussel chronologies. The leading principal component of the five longest mussel chronologies (1982-2003; PC1(mussel)) accounted for 47% of the dataset variability and negatively correlated with the leading principal component of river discharge (PC1(discharge); r = -0.88; P < 0.0001). PC1(mussel) and PC1(discharge) were closely linked to regional wintertime precipitation patterns across the Pacific Northwest, the season in which the vast majority of annual precipitation arrives. Mussel growth was also indirectly related to tree radial growth, though the nature of the relationships varied across the landscape. Negative correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by drought while positive correlations occurred in forests where tree growth tends to be limited by deep or lingering snowpack. Overall, this diverse assemblage of chronologies illustrates the importance of winter precipitation to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and suggests that a complexity of climate responses must be considered when estimating the biological impacts of climate variability and change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3083431','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3083431"><span>Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active"><span>9</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_9 --> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21589639','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21589639"><span>Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M</p> <p>2011-04-27</p> <p>The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=309954&keyword=temperature+AND+variability&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=309954&keyword=temperature+AND+variability&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50"><span>Using Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Evaluate the Hydrologic Effects of Climate in the Southwestern United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have been an active area of research at regional and national scales in the United States. The concept has been used to make spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwe...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1670D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1670D"><span>Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to simulate southern African summer rainfall. This multi-timescale procedure shows much better skills in simulating decadal timescales of variability compared to commonly used statistical downscaling approaches.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.2582K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.2582K"><span>Influence of climate variability on near-surface ozone depletion events in the Arctic spring</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Koo, Ja-Ho; Wang, Yuhang; Jiang, Tianyu; Deng, Yi; Oltmans, Samuel J.; Solberg, Sverre</p> <p>2014-04-01</p> <p>Near-surface ozone depletion events (ODEs) generally occur in the Arctic spring, and the frequency shows large interannual variations. We use surface ozone measurements at Barrow, Alert, and Zeppelinfjellet to analyze if their variations are due to climate variability. In years with frequent ODEs at Barrow and Alert, the western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern is usually in its negative phase, during which the Pacific jet is strengthened but the storm track originated over the western Pacific is weakened. Both factors tend to reduce the transport of ozone-rich air mass from midlatitudes to the Arctic, creating a favorable environment for the ODEs. The correlation of ODE frequencies at Zeppelinfjellet with WP indices is higher in the 2000s, reflecting stronger influence of the WP pattern in recent decade to cover ODEs in broader Arctic regions. We find that the WP pattern can be used to diagnose ODE changes and subsequent environmental impacts in the Arctic spring.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.1151S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..14.1151S"><span>El Niño-Southern Oscillation and dengue early warning in Ecuador</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stewart, A. M.; Lowe, R.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is one of the most important emerging tropical diseases. Dengue is hyper-endemic in coastal Ecuador, where all four serotypes co-circulate. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate in Ecuador, with positive phase ENSO (El Niño) associated with wetter and warmer conditions over the southern coastal region. In turn, greater rainfall increases the availability of mosquito breeding sites for the dengue mosquito (Aedes aegypti), while warmer temperatures increase rates of larval development, mosquito biting, and viral replication in the mosquito. We report a statistical model for assessing the importance of climate as a driver for inter-annual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Climate variables from a local meteorology station (precipitation, number of rainy days, minimum/maximum/mean air temperature), combined with gridded climate products, and anomalies of Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index, ONI) were used to predict monthly dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMR) (1995-2010). Non-climatic confounding factors such as serotype introduction and vector control effort were also considered. Preliminary results indicated a statistically significant positive association between dengue risk and the number of rainy days during the previous month. Both the number of rainy days and dengue SMR were positively associated with the Pacific SST anomalies with a lead time of several months. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, monitoring El Niño / La Niña evolution in the Pacific Ocean could provide some predictive lead time for forecasting dengue epidemics. This is the first study of dengue fever and climate in this region. This research provides the foundation to develop a climate-driven early warning system for dengue fever in Ecuador.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140013061','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140013061"><span>Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-Specific Primary Production at a Global Scale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (50, the equivalent of 20 PgC y-1. Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed to 20 (7 PgC y-1 of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10 (4 PgC y(sub-1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (45) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4 (1-2 PgC y-1. We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nio Index, MEI) and regional climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p 0.05) between the MEI and the class-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatomscyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on the class-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017697','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017697"><span>Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Primary Production at a Global Scale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rousseaux, Cecile Severine; Gregg, Watson W.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>We used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of four phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. First, we assessed the contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production at a global scale for the period 1998-2011. Globally, diatoms contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production ((is)approximately 50%, the equivalent of 20 PgC·y1). Coccolithophores and chlorophytes each contributed approximately 20% ((is) approximately 7 PgC·y1) of the total primary production and cyanobacteria represented about 10% ((is) approximately 4 PgC·y1) of the total primary production. Primary production by diatoms was highest in the high latitudes ((is) greater than 40 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We then assessed interannual variability of this group-specific primary production over the period 1998-2011. Globally the annual relative contribution of each phytoplankton groups to the total primary production varied by maximum 4% (1-2 PgC·y1). We assessed the effects of climate variability on group-specific primary production using global (i.e., Multivariate El Niño Index, MEI) and "regional" climate indices (e.g., Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability as indicated by significant correlation (p (is) less than 0.05) between the MEI and the group-specific primary production from all groups except coccolithophores. In the Atlantic, climate variability as indicated by NAO was significantly correlated to the primary production of 2 out of the 4 groups in the North Central Atlantic (diatoms/cyanobacteria) and in the North Atlantic (chlorophytes and coccolithophores). We found that climate variability as indicated by SAM had only a limited effect on group-specific primary production in the Southern Ocean. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140013082','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140013082"><span>Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Class-specific Primary Production at a Global Scale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Rousseaux, Cecile; Gregg, Watson</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Phytoplankton is responsible for over half of the net primary production on earth. The knowledge on the contribution of various phytoplankton groups to the total primary production is still poorly understood. Data from satellite observations suggest that for upwelling regions, photosynthetic rates by microplankton is higher than that of nanoplankton but that when the spatial extent is considered, the production by nanoplankton is comparable or even larger than microplankton. Here, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) combined with remote sensing data via assimilation to evaluate the contribution of 4 phytoplankton groups to the total primary production. Globally, diatoms were the group that contributed the most to the total phytoplankton production (approx. 50%) followed by coccolithophores and chlorophytes. Primary production by diatoms was highest in high latitude (>45 deg) and in major upwelling systems (Equatorial Pacific and Benguela system). We assessed the effects of climate variability on the class-specific primary production using global (i.e. Multivariate El Nino Index, MEI) and 'regional' climate indices (e.g. Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)). Most interannual variability occurred in the Equatorial Pacific and was associated with climate variability. These results provide a modeling and data assimilation perspective to phytoplankton partitioning of primary production and contribute to our understanding of the dynamics of the carbon cycle in the oceans at a global scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16..823M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16..823M"><span>Comparaison of last centuries variability in the eastern and central Pacific reconstructed from massive coral geochemical tracers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Moreau, Melanie; Corrège, Thierry; Cole, Julie; Le Cornec, Florence; Edwards, Lawrence; Cheng, Hai; Charlier, Karine</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>The tropical Pacific is under the influence of different climate modes (from the seasonal to the decadal scale) and, through teleconnections, affects the global climate. At the seasonal scale the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) drive the hydrological dynamic of the tropical zone. The tropical Pacific is also a place of strong and variable zonal gradients due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) at the interannual scale. A good amount of data is available in the western and the central part of the Pacific to reconstruct climatic parameters such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) while there is a striking lack of data in the eastern part. To better estimate the zonal gradients in the tropical Pacific and the different climatic processes in the last two centuries, we present geochemical results (Sr/Ca and δ18O) obtained from aragonitic coral skeletons (Porites genus) from Clipperton atoll (10° N, 109° W) and the Marquesas Islands (10° S, 140° W). Clipperton being the only atoll located in the northern part of the ITCZ latitudinal migration area, information about eastern Pacific hydrological cycle and advection can be obtained. On the other hand, the precise chronology of the Clipperton coral and the comparaison with the records from the Marquesas Islands allows us to calculate SST gradients between the eastern and central Pacific. We will discuss about the recent theory of an El Niño-like condition triggered by a slowdown of the equatorial Walker circulation under global warming. We will also discuss about the evolution (frequency and intensity) of the two differents 'flavours' of El Niño (e.g. the canonical eastern El Niño and the central El Niño Modoki) through the 20thcentury. Indeed the canonical El Niño is characterised by a maximum SST anomaly in the eastern Pacific while the El Niño Modoki is characterised by a maximum SST anomaly persisting in the central Pacific. A better comprehension of the evolution of the both kind of El Niño is a major issue because each of them have distinct global impacts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=80259&keyword=spain&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=80259&keyword=spain&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50"><span>ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN NAO VARIBILITY AND U.S. MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROCLIMATOLOGY</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Variability in the climate of the US Mid-Atlantic Region is associated with larger scale variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Collectively, these three large-scal...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5339901','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5339901"><span>A potential large and persistent black carbon forcing over Northern Pacific inferred from satellite observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Li, Zhongshu; Liu, Junfeng; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Li, Xiaoyuan; Fan, Songmiao; Horowitz, Larry W.; He, Cenlin; Yi, Kan; Tao, Shu</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Black carbon (BC) aerosol strongly absorbs solar radiation, which warms climate. However, accurate estimation of BC’s climate effect is limited by the uncertainties of its spatiotemporal distribution, especially over remote oceanic areas. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observation (HIPPO) program from 2009 to 2011 intercepted multiple snapshots of BC profiles over Pacific in various seasons, and revealed a 2 to 5 times overestimate of BC by current global models. In this study, we compared the measurements from aircraft campaigns and satellites, and found a robust association between BC concentrations and satellite-retrieved CO, tropospheric NO2, and aerosol optical depth (AOD) (R2 > 0.8). This establishes a basis to construct a satellite-based column BC approximation (sBC*) over remote oceans. The inferred sBC* shows that Asian outflows in spring bring much more BC aerosols to the mid-Pacific than those occurring in other seasons. In addition, inter-annual variability of sBC* is seen over the Northern Pacific, with abundances varying consistently with the springtime Pacific/North American (PNA) index. Our sBC* dataset infers a widespread overestimation of BC loadings and BC Direct Radiative Forcing by current models over North Pacific, which further suggests that large uncertainties exist on aerosol-climate interactions over other remote oceanic areas beyond Pacific. PMID:28266532</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50...17Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50...17Z"><span>Present and future connection of Asian-Pacific Oscillation to large-scale atmospheric circulations and East Asian rainfall: results of CMIP5</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhou, Botao; Xu, Ying; Shi, Ying</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>The summer Asian-Pacific oscillation (APO), one of the major modes of climate variability over the Asian-Pacific sector, has a pronounced effect on variations of large-scale atmospheric circulations and climate. This study evaluated the capability of 30 state-of-the-art climate models among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating its association with the atmospheric circulations over the Asian-Pacific region and the precipitation over East Asia. Furthermore, their future connections under the RCP8.5 scenario were examined. The evaluation results show that 5 out of 30 climate models can well capture the observed APO-related features in a comprehensive way, including the strengthened South Asian high (SAH), deepened North Pacific trough (NPT) and northward East Asian jet (EAJ) in the upper troposphere; an intensification of the Asian low and the North Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) as well as a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) in the lower troposphere; and a decrease in East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) under the positive APO phase. Based on the five CMIP5 models' simulations, the dynamic linkages of the APO to the SAH, NPT, AL, and NPSH are projected to maintain during the second half of the twenty-first century. However, its connection with the EASR tends to reduce significantly. Such a reduction might result from the weakening of the linkage of the APO to the meridional displacement of the EAJ and WPSH as a response to the warming scenario.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS34A..08C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS34A..08C"><span>Biological consequences of ENSO: What have we learned recently?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chavez, F.; Messié, M.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>A comprehensive theory regarding the biological response to El Niño was developed from observations during the 1982-83 event. The theory has withstood the test of time but additional information from remote sensing and growing in situ databases has allowed for a more comprehensive evaluation of the biological consequences of the full ENSO cycle on global scales and in relation to other climatic variability and change. Here we review the major developments over the past few decades that include a greater appreciation for the cool or La Niña phase and the relation of ENSO to other climatic variability including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. The use of ENSO as an analog for biological consequences of a warmer world is also discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1253370','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1253370"><span>The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo</p> <p></p> <p>Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1253370-footprint-inter-decadal-pacific-oscillation-indian-ocean-sea-surface-temperatures','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1253370-footprint-inter-decadal-pacific-oscillation-indian-ocean-sea-surface-temperatures"><span>The footprint of the inter-decadal Pacific oscillation in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Dong, Lu; Zhou, Tianjun; Dai, Aiguo; ...</p> <p>2016-02-17</p> <p>Superimposed on a pronounced warming trend, the Indian Ocean (IO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) also show considerable decadal variations that can cause regional climate oscillations around the IO. However, the mechanisms of the IO decadal variability remain unclear. Here we perform numerical experiments using a state-of-the-art, fully coupled climate model in which the external forcings with or without the observed SSTs in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (TEP) are applied for 1871–2012. Both the observed timing and magnitude of the IO decadal variations are well reproduced in those experiments with the TEP SSTs prescribed to observations. Although the external forcingsmore » account for most of the warming trend, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is dominated by internal variability that is induced by the TEP SSTs, especially the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The IPO weakens (enhances) the warming of the external forcings by about 50% over the IO during IPO’s cold (warm) phase, which contributes about 10% to the recent global warming hiatus since 1999. As a result, the decadal variability in IO SSTs is modulated by the IPO-induced atmospheric adjustment through changing surface heat fluxes, sea surface height and thermocline depth.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC13B1080G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC13B1080G"><span>Responses of tropical root crops to climate change: implications for Pacific food security</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gleadow, R.; Webber, B.; Macness, N.; Lisson, S.; Nauluvula, P.; Hargraves, J.; Crimp, S. J.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Cassava and taro are an important source of calories in many parts of the developing world and hold much promise for meeting the need for food security in equatorial regions. Communities in the Pacific Island countries reliant on agriculture-based livelihood systems have been identified as particularly at risk from climate change, due to likely increases in crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack of appropriate seed and plant material, loss of livestock and potential loss of arable land. Recent shortfalls in agricultural production resulting from changing export markets, commodity prices, climatic variation, and population growth and urbanisation, have contributed further to regional food insecurity concerns. Cassava and taro contain herbivore defense chemicals that are detrimental to human health (cyanogenic glucosides and calcium oxalate). Unprocessed cassava can cause acute cyanide intoxication, paralysis and even death, especially during droughts. A number of activities are already underway in the Pacific region to identify ways to ameliorate existing climate risk and enhance current agricultural production. Whilst these activities are important to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty as to how effective these strategies may be in the face of a changing and increasingly variable future climate. We present our current understanding of the impact of climate change on key Pacific production systems - specifically those based on the staple root crops, taro and cassava. This includes (1) Our understanding of the responses of cassava and taro crops to existing environmental drivers (climate, soil and nutrient interactions); (2) The responses of cassava and taro crops to enhanced CO2 conditions; and (3) Efforts to model productivity responses (within the APSIM framework) and results for locations in the Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34431','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34431"><span>Declining annual streamflow distributions in the Pacific Northwest United States, 1948-2006</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>C. H. Luce; Z. A. Holden</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Much of the discussion on climate change and water in the western United States centers on decreased snowpack and earlier spring runoff. Although increasing variability in annual flows has been noted, the nature of those changes is largely unexplored. We tested for trends in the distribution of annual runoff using quantile regression at 43 gages in the Pacific...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS11B..06M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS11B..06M"><span>Indo-Pacific sea level variability at multidecadal time scales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Long tide gauge and atmospheric pressure measurements are used to infer multidecadal fluctuations in trade wind forcing and the associated Indo-Pacific sea level response along coastal and equatorial waveguides. The trade wind variations are marked by a weakening beginning with the late 1970s climate shift and a subsequent return to mean conditions since the early 1990s. These fluctuations covary with multidecadal wind changes at mid-latitudes, as measured by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the North Pacific indices; however, the mid-latitude multidecadal variations prior to 1970 or noticeably absent in the inferred trade wind record. The different behavior of tropical and mid-latitude winds support the notion that multidecadal climate variations in the Pacific result from a combination of processes and not a single coherent mode spanning the basin. In particular, the two-decade long satellite altimeter record represents a period of apparent connection between the two regions that was not exhibited earlier in the century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GML....36..101M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GML....36..101M"><span>High-resolution IP25-based reconstruction of sea-ice variability in the western North Pacific and Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Méheust, Marie; Stein, Ruediger; Fahl, Kirsten; Max, Lars; Riethdorf, Jan-Rainer</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Due to its strong influence on heat and moisture exchange between the ocean and the atmosphere, sea ice is an essential component of the global climate system. In the context of its alarming decrease in terms of concentration, thickness and duration, understanding the processes controlling sea-ice variability and reconstructing paleo-sea-ice extent in polar regions have become of great interest for the scientific community. In this study, for the first time, IP25, a recently developed biomarker sea-ice proxy, was used for a high-resolution reconstruction of the sea-ice extent and its variability in the western North Pacific and western Bering Sea during the past 18,000 years. To identify mechanisms controlling the sea-ice variability, IP25 data were associated with published sea-surface temperature as well as diatom and biogenic opal data. The results indicate that a seasonal sea-ice cover existed during cold periods (Heinrich Stadial 1 and Younger Dryas), whereas during warmer intervals (Bølling-Allerød and Holocene) reduced sea ice or ice-free conditions prevailed in the study area. The variability in sea-ice extent seems to be linked to climate anomalies and sea-level changes controlling the oceanographic circulation between the subarctic Pacific and the Bering Sea, especially the Alaskan Stream injection though the Aleutian passes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120013713','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120013713"><span>Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active"><span>10</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_10 --> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A34E..06Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A34E..06Y"><span>The increasing control of the Atlantic Ocean on ENSO after the early 1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yu, J. Y.; Paek, H.; Wang, L.; Lyu, K.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most powerful interannual variability in Earth's climate system. Previous studies have emphasized processes within the tropical Pacific or Indian Oceans for the generation of ENSO. Recent studies have increasingly suggested that the Atlantic Ocean may play an active role in forcing ENSO variability. In this talk, we will present evidence from observational analyses and modeling experiments to show that the Atlantic Ocean became more capable of influencing ENSO properties after the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) changed to its positive phase in the early-1990s. A wave source mechanism is proposed to explain how the positive phase of the AMO can intensify the North Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH) to change the ENSO from the Eastern Pacific (EP) type to the Central Pacific (CP) type. A sequence of processes are identified to suggest that the AMO can displace the Pacific Walker circulation, induce a wave source in the tropical central Pacific, and excite a barotropic wave train toward higher-latitudes to enhance the NPSH, which then triggers subtropical Pacific atmospheric forcing and atmosphere-ocean coupling to increase the occurrence of the CP ENSO. An Atlantic capacitor mechanism is also proposed to explain how the positive phase of the AMO can intensify the quasi-biennial (QB) component of ENSO resulting in a more frequent occurrence of ENSO events. We will show that the capacitor mechanism works only after the AMO warmed up the Atlantic sea surface temperatures after the early-1990s. The increased feedback from the Atlantic to the Pacific has enabled the Atlantic capacitor mechanism to intensify the biennial variability in the Pacific during the past two decades. Our suggestion is very different from the previous prevailing views that have emphasized the Indo-Pacific Oceans as the pacemaker for the biennial variability in ENSO. The increasing control of the Atlantic has enabled the CP ENSO dynamics to influence most of the ENSO events during the past two decades, including the most recent 2015-16 El Niño. We will explain how the CP ENSO dynamics made the 2015-16 "Godzilla" El Niño different from the 1997-98 "Godzilla" El Niño and why these two extreme El Niño events produced different impacts on the US climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34936','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34936"><span>Mapping and imputing potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests using climate variables</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara Barrett</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Regional estimation of potential forest productivity is important to diverse applications, including biofuels supply, carbon sequestration, and projections of forest growth. Using PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 Forest Inventory and Analysis plots in Oregon and Washington, we...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=340076','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=340076"><span>Impact of climate change adaptation strategies on winter wheat and cropping system performance across precipitation gradients in the inland Pacific Northwest, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Ecological instability and low resource use efficiencies are concerns for the long-term productivity of conventional cereal monoculture systems, particularly those threatened by projected climate change. Crop intensification, diversification, reduced tillage, and variable N management are among str...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002SPIE.4480..307K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002SPIE.4480..307K"><span>Determination of the spatial variability of temperature and moisture near a tropical Pacific island with MTI satellite images</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kurzeja, Robert J.; O'Steen, Byron L.; Pendergast, Malcolm M.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>The Tropical Pacific Island of Nauru is a US DOE ARM observation site that monitors tropical climate and atmospheric radiation. This observation site is ideal for validating MTI images because of the extensive deployment of continuously operating instruments. MTI images are also useful in assessing the effect of the island on the ocean climate and on the ARM data. An MTI image has been used to determine the spatial distribution of water vapor and sea-surface temperature near the island. The results are compared with a three-dimensional numerical model simulation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70176427','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70176427"><span>Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Feyrer, Frederick V.; Cloern, James E.; Brown, Larry R.; Fish, Maxfield; Hieb, Kathryn; Baxter, Randall</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land–sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean–atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980–2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0–1), oligohaline (salinity = 1–12), mesohaline (salinity = 6–19), polyhaline (salinity = 19–28), and euhaline (salinity = 29–32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25966973','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25966973"><span>Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Feyrer, Frederick; Cloern, James E; Brown, Larry R; Fish, Maxfield A; Hieb, Kathryn A; Baxter, Randall D</p> <p>2015-10-01</p> <p>Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037880','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70037880"><span>GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A21B0024K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A21B0024K"><span>Tropical Pacific variability as a key pacemaker of the global warming staircase</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kosaka, Y.; Xie, S. P.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has increased since the 19th century with notable interdecadal accelerations and slowdowns, forming the global-warming "staircase". The last step of this staircase is the surface warming slowdown since the late 1990s, for which the transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) from a positive to negative state has been suggested as the leading mechanism. To examine the role of IPO in the entire warming staircase, a long pacemaker experiment is performed with a coupled climate model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution since the late 19th century. The pacemaker experiment successfully reproduces the staircase-like global warming remarkably well since 1900. Without the tropical Pacific effect, the same model produces a continual warming from the 1900s to the 1960 followed by rapid warming. The successful reproduction identifies the tropical Pacific decadal variability as a key pacemaker of the GMST staircase. We further propose a method to remove internal variability from observed GMST changes for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A42B..02P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A42B..02P"><span>A Paleo Perspective on Arctic and Mid-latitude Linkages from a Southeast Alaska Ice Core</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Porter, S. E.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Thompson, L. G.; Bolzan, J. F.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Recent extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere have been linked to anomalously amplified jet stream patterns, North Pacific marine heatwaves, retreating Arctic sea ice extent, and/or the combination thereof. The role of the Arctic in influencing mid-latitude weather and extreme events is a burgeoning topic of climate research that is limited primarily to the recent decades in which Arctic amplification and shrinking Arctic sea ice extent are occurring. Paleo-proxy data afford an opportunity to place the changing Arctic and its far-reaching climatic consequences in the longer context of Earth's climate history and allow identification of time periods with conditions analogous to the present. Ice core-derived annual net accumulation from the Bona-Churchill (BC) ice core, retrieved in 2002 from the Wrangell-St. Elias mountain range in southeast Alaska, is used to explore the historical characteristics of the regional North Pacific climate and the further afield teleconnections. Variability of accumulation on BC is driven primarily by shifts in the position of the Aleutian Low which influences the available moisture sources for the drill site. The accumulation record is also related to sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, defined here by the North Pacific Mode and somewhat colloquially as the North Pacific "blob". Thus due to its connection with the Aleutian Low and North Pacific sea surface temperatures, this uniquely situated ice core record indirectly captures the phasing of troughs and ridges in the polar jet stream over North America, and thereby facilitates examination of the atmospheric wave structure prior to the instrumental record. The relationships among the ice core accumulation record and various North Pacific climate features are presented along with evidence identifying specific time periods possibly characterized by persistently amplified wave patterns.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3767565','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3767565"><span>Synchronous interhemispheric Holocene climate trends in the tropical Andes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Polissar, Pratigya J.; Abbott, Mark B.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Vuille, Mathias; Bezada, Maximiliano</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Holocene variations of tropical moisture balance have been ascribed to orbitally forced changes in solar insolation. If this model is correct, millennial-scale climate evolution should be antiphased between the northern and southern hemispheres, producing humid intervals in one hemisphere matched to aridity in the other. Here we show that Holocene climate trends were largely synchronous and in the same direction in the northern and southern hemisphere outer-tropical Andes, providing little support for the dominant role of insolation forcing in these regions. Today, sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean modulate rainfall variability in the outer tropical Andes of both hemispheres, and we suggest that this mechanism was pervasive throughout the Holocene. Our findings imply that oceanic forcing plays a larger role in regional South American climate than previously suspected, and that Pacific sea-surface temperatures have the capacity to induce abrupt and sustained shifts in Andean climate. PMID:23959896</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4639Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4639Z"><span>Assessing the role of the West Pacific Gradient for global climate teleconnections over the past Millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zinke, Jens; Browning, Stuart A.; Hoell, Andrew; Goodwin, Ian D.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The Maritime Continent (MC) is the hydrological power house of the planet being collocated within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, where sea surface temperatures (SST) exceed 28°C associated with strong convective rainfall year-round. The convective activity over the Maritime Continent associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is intimately linked to large- scale variations in the climate system and global rainfall-drought patterns. New research has shown that during both El Niño and La Niña events the global impacts in terms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation were more severe when the SST anomalies in the westernmost Pacific (WP; 0-10°N, 130-150°E) were strongly opposing those in the central Pacific (Niño4 region; 5°S-5°N, 160-210°E) than when the west Pacific SST anomalies were near neutral. This temperature gradient is referred to as the West Pacific Gradient (WPG; Hoell and Funk, 2013; Zinke et al., 2015). A positive WPG is when WP SST anomalies are colder than those in the central Pacific, thus El-Niño-like conditions prevail. Recent changes in the WPG towards a negative phase, combined with strong WP warming after the Indo-Pacific climate regime shift of the late 1990s, are driving significant thermal anomalies from the Indonesian seas to the southern coast of Western Australia and along the southwest Pacific (Zinke et al., 2015). The reconstruction of the WPG for the past Millennium might provide novel insights into past tropical climate variability since more long proxy archives are available to assess the WPG than for the Niño3.4 region. WPG variability over the past millennium is reconstructed using an experimental paleoclimate based reanalysis (PaleoR). PaleoR is analogous to modern reanalysis products, but constrained by paleoclimate data instead of meteorological observations (Goodwin et al., 2014). PaleoR employs an offline assimilation scheme where each year (or decade) is individually reconstructed by using information from a multivariate proxy data array to select best matching analogues from the Last Millennial Ensemble simulations (LME; Otto-Bliesner et al., 2015). The PaleoR approach preserves dynamical relationships between ocean and atmospheric variables and accommodates periods of non-stationary teleconnections. Our results reveal a sustained positive WPG between AD 1250 to 1650 (a period that Goodwin et al. 2014 identified as being persistent El Niño like) and a mostly negative WPG between AD 1650 and 2000, the latter interrupted by multi-decadal periods with a positive WPG centered around 1760, 1830 and 1900. The periods between AD 1125-1175 and 1185-1250 were characterized by a negative WPG (a period that Goodwin et al. 2014 identified as being persistent La Niña like) with positive WPG excursions in decades around AD 1000-1050, 1100 and 1175. We investigate the spatial climate anomaly fields for periods of sustained positive and negative WPG to reveal potential global climate teleconnections in terms of SST, rainfall, winds and sea-level pressure during the past Millennium. References Goodwin et al. 2014, P. Natl. A. Sci., 111, 14716-14721 Hoell and Funk 2013, J. Clim., 26, 9545-9562 Otto-Bliesner et al., 2015, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1 Zinke et al. 2015, Nature Communications, 6:8562, doi: 10.1038/ncomms9562</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41E..04O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41E..04O"><span>A 1200 Year Alkenone-based Reconstruction of Sea Surface Temperature and Marine Productivity in the Southern California Current System from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Present</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>O'Mara, N. A.; Kelly, C. S.; Herbert, T.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Laminated sediment cores taken from the San Lazaro Basin (SLB) (25.18N, 112.66W) located off the coast of Baja California in the subtropical eastern Pacific were geochemically analyzed for alkenone and sterol biomarkers to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and marine productivity from 850-1980 CE. High sedimentation rates, low bottom water dissolved oxygen, and high marine productivity in combination with the San Lazaro Basin's location within the dynamic transition zone between the tropical and subtropical eastern Pacific, make it a prime location to study variability of tropical and subtropical modes of climate variability. This study focuses on the impacts and variability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on the subtropical eastern Pacific. SST and coccolithophore productivity (n=730) for 2 mm sections of sediment corresponding to 1 measurement every 1.8 years were reconstructed using the Uk'37 unsaturation index and C37 alkenone concentration. The high resolution of this record allowed for the analysis of variability of SST and productivity on decadal timescales. Brassicasterol concentrations were calculated for a limited number of samples (n=44) to assess diatom productivity. High spectral power was found at periods of 20-30 years in SST and productivity records indicating a strong influence of the PDO on the SLB, making this the first marine based record directly relevant to PDO reconstructions that continuously spans the last millennium. Cool and productive (warm and less productive) waters were observed in the southern California Current in the Medieval Climate Anomaly 900-1200 CE (Little Ice Age 1400-1800 CE) supporting previous reconstructions that warmer (cooler) SST are linked to both reduced (enhanced) phytoplankton productivity. Additionally, cool (warm) SST were also associated with dry (wet) conditions in the American Southwest indicating that changes in the PDO has had a significant impact on drought in this region over the past millennium.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMPP54A..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMPP54A..04S"><span>Lumped parameter, isotopic model simulations of closed-basin lake response to drought in the Pacific Northwest and implications for lake sediment oxygen isotope records.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Steinman, B. A.; Rosenmeier, M.; Abbott, M.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>The economy of the Pacific Northwest relies heavily on water resources from the drought-prone Columbia River and its tributaries, as well as the many lakes and reservoirs of the region. Proper management of these water resources requires a thorough understanding of local drought histories that extends well beyond the instrumental record of the twentieth century, a time frame too short to capture the full range of drought variability in the Pacific Northwest. Here we present a lumped parameter, mass-balance model that provides insight into the influence of hydroclimatological changes on two small, closed-basin systems located in north- central Washington. Steady state model simulations of lake water oxygen isotope ratios using modern climate and catchment parameter datasets demonstrate a strong sensitivity to both the amount and timing of precipitation, and to changes in summertime relative humidity, particularly at annual and decadal time scales. Model tests also suggest that basin hypsography can have a significant impact on lake water oxygen isotope variations, largely through surface area to volume and consequent evaporative flux to volume ratio changes in response to drought and pluvial sequences. Additional simulations using input parameters derived from both on-site and National Climatic Data Center historical climate datasets accurately approximate three years of continuous lake observations (seasonal water sampling and continuous lake level monitoring) and twentieth century oxygen isotope ratios in sediment core authigenic carbonate recovered from the lakes. Results from these model simulations suggest that small, closed-basin lakes in north-central Washington are highly sensitive to changes in the drought-related climate variables, and that long (8000 year), high resolution records of quantitative changes in precipitation and evaporation are obtainable from sediment cores recovered from water bodies of the Pacific Northwest.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26331850','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26331850"><span>Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4557981','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4557981"><span>Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce wetland habitat availability for many species. PMID:26331850</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2560836','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2560836"><span>El Niño and human health.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kovats, R. S.</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the best known example of quasi-periodic natural climate variability on the interannual time scale. It comprises changes in sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean (El Niño) and changes in atmospheric pressure across the Pacific Basin (the Southern Oscillation), together with resultant effects on world weather. El Niño events occur at intervals of 2-7 years. In certain countries around the Pacific and beyond, El Niño is associated with extreme weather conditions that can cause floods and drought. Globally it is linked to an increased impact of natural disasters. There is evidence that ENSO is associated with a heightened risk of certain vector-borne diseases in specific geographical areas where weather patterns are linked with the ENSO cycle and disease control is limited. This is particularly true for malaria, but associations are also suggested in respect of epidemics of other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases that can be triggered by extreme weather conditions. Seasonal climate forecasts, predicting the likelihood of weather patterns several months in advance, can be used to provide early indicators of epidemic risk, particularly for malaria. Interdisciplinary research and cooperation are required in order to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and weather extremes. PMID:11019461</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUSMPP51A..01X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUSMPP51A..01X"><span>Coupled dynamics that determine the position and variability of the ITCZ</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xie, S.; Miyama, T.; Wang, Y.; Xu, H.; de Szoeke, S.</p> <p>2006-05-01</p> <p>The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is displaced north of the equator in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, as a result of asymmetry in continental geometry and air-sea interactions. This latitudinal asymmetry plays an important role in shaping the equatorial annual cycle, the seasonality of the equatorial mode in both the ocean basins, and the tropical Atlantic meridional mode. Despite its climatic importance, the northward- displaced ITCZ is poorly simulated in state-of-the-art global climate models, casting doubts on their simulations of the past and current climate and projection of future climate. A regional ocean-atmosphere model has been developed to study the effects of external influences (e.g., high- latitude cooling in the northern North Atlantic) and internal feedback on the Pacific ITCZ. The regional ocean- atmosphere model (ROAM) reproduces salient features of eastern Pacific climate, including a northward- displaced intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) collocated with a zonal band of high SSTs, a low-cloud deck in the Southeast Pacific, the equatorial cold tongue and its annual cycle. The model climate - such as the position of the ITCZ, equatorial annual cycle and maximum SST - is sensitive to the treatment of low cloud. In another experiment where tropical North Atlantic SST is lowered by 2C, equatorial Pacific SST decreases by up to 3C in January-April but changes much less in other seasons, resulting in a weakened equatorial annual cycle. Central American mountains, poorly resolved in global models, appear to play an important role in this cross-basin interaction. The coupled dynamics of the ITCZ in the model and its utility to downscale coarse- resolution paleoclimate simulations will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPP51C..04G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMPP51C..04G"><span>Evidence for Shifts in Indo-Pacific Hydrology over the Last Two Millennia from Indonesian Speleothems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Griffiths, M. L.; Gagan, M. K.; Drysdale, R.; Kimbrough, A. K.; Johnson, K. R.; Cole, J. E.; Zhao, J.; Ayliffe, L. K.; Hellstrom, J.; Hantoro, W. S.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>A suite of climate proxy records from the tropical Pacific have provided detailed information on the behaviour of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) over the past millennium. However, there is still disagreement as to the precise evolution of this phenomenon, because some records have indicated that the PWC was stronger during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~950-1250 A.D. as defined in northern midlatitudes) and weaker during the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1450-1750 A.D.), whilst other records have suggested quite the opposite. These conflicting hypotheses are partly due to the lack of well-dated and continuous reconstructions of tropical Pacific climate, with the resolution capable of resolving the interannual ENSO and related decadal variability. Here we address these shortcomings by constructing an annually resolved record of Indonesian monsoon (IM) variability over the past two millennia from 18O/16O in speleothems situated within the ascending branch of the PWC in south-central Indonesia. Our replicated 18O/16O record reveals that the IM was substantially weaker (relative to modern) between ~950 and 1350 A.D., and became stronger immediately thereafter between ~1350 and 1700 A.D. These patterns, which are synchronous with other proxy records from the Indo-Pacific, are anti-phased with records of Indian and East Asian summer monsoon variability, suggesting that the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone may have been responsible for the observed phase relationships between the northern- and southern-hemisphere low latitude regions. However, comparison of our IM record with hydrological records from the central/eastern equatorial Pacific shows marked anti-phasing between these regions too. Hence, zonal changes in the PWC may also explain the observed hydrologic shifts in Indonesia. Evidence for a weaker PWC during the MCA is provided by a time-space wavelet transform of our 18O/16O profile which shows a significant increase in the variance at the decadal and multidecadal bands during this time. Moreover, the step-wise transition to a lower rainfall mean state in Flores at ca. 950 A.D. is synchronous with the construction of water temples in Bali (used to store water for irrigation of rice paddies), further support for the onset of a highly variable rainfall regime. These findings contribute to our understanding of the full spectrum of tropical Pacific behaviour in the past, and may thus present a possible analogue for what the Indonesian region could expect under a warming planet.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/30834','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/30834"><span>Climate change impacts on northwestern and intermountain United States rangelands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Jeanne C. Chambers; Mike Pellant</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>Our focus is on the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain Region including the Great Basin, Columbia Plateau, Colorado Plateau, and surrounding areas. The climate of this large, arid to semiarid region is defined by generally low and highly variable precipitation. Much of the yearly precipitation arrives as winter snow because most of the moisture comes as frontal storms...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP51B..01Q','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP51B..01Q"><span>Tales from the South (and West) Pacific in the Common Era: A Climate Proxy Perspective (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Quinn, T. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Partin, J. W.; Maupin, C. R.; Hereid, K. A.; Gorman, M. K.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>The southwest Pacific is a major source of tropical climate variability through heat and moisture exchanges associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). These variations are especially significant at the annual, interannual (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO), and multi-decadal timescales. Gridded SST data products are available in the pre-satellite era in this region for the past ~130 years, although data density is a significant issue for the older half of these records. Time series of salinity (SSS) and rainfall from this region are exceedingly rare. Thus, climate proxy records must be used to reconstruct SST, SSS, and rainfall variations in the Common Era (CE) in the tropical Pacific. The analytical laboratory for paleoclimate studies at UT has focused its research efforts into producing climate proxy time series from southwest tropical Pacific using modern and fossil corals, and speleothems. Our most recent results are summarized in this presentation, although much of this work is still in progress. Coral climate records have been generated from Sabine Bank, Vanuatu (16°S, 166°E) and Misima Island, Papua New Guinea (10.6°S, 152.8°E). The Vanuatu coral record of monthly resolved Sr/Ca variations extends back to the late 18th century. All strong ENSO warm phase events of the 20th century observed in the instrumental record are also observed in the coral record. We note that several ENSO warm phase events in the 19th century portion of the coral record are comparable in size to that recorded in response to the 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events. The Misima coral record of monthly resolved δ18O and Sr/Ca variations spans the interval ~1414-1645 CE — the heart of the Little Ice Age. Amplitude modulation of interannual variability is observed in this LIA record, much like what is observed during the relatively quiescent period of 1920-1950 in the 20th century instrumental and proxy records of ENSO. However, the amplitude of individual ENSO warm phase events in the LIA record is reduced, relative to that of the 1941/1942 ENSO warm phase events observed in a near modern coral record from Misima. Speleothem climate records have been generated from Espirito Santo, Vanuatu (15.5°S, 167°E) and Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands (~9°S, 160°E). The Vanuatu record of δ18O variations is from a fast-growing speleothem (~1-3 mm/year), which yields a record of rainfall variability spanning ~1670-2005 CE, as dated by U-Th disequilibrium techniques. Interannual changes in speleothem δ18O appear to capture ENSO events and subsequent reorganizations of the SPCZ. The Vanuatu speleothem δ18O record also exhibits concentrations of variance on the decadal scale. The Guadalcanal record of δ18O variations is also from a fast-growing speleothem (~1-4 mm/year), which yields a record of rainfall variability spanning ~1650-2010 CE, as dated by U-Th disequilibrium techniques. The δ18O records from both of these stalagmites provide evidence for changes in convection in the equatorial WPWP region of the SPCZ: the rising limb of the Pacific Walker Circulation.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active"><span>11</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_11 --> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.3214A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.3214A"><span>Tracking the Pacific Decadal Precession</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anderson, Bruce T.; Furtado, Jason C.; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Short Gianotti, Daniel J.</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Events of recent years—including extended droughts across California, record fires across western Canada, and destabilization of marine ecosystems—highlight the profound impact of multiannual to decadal-scale climate shifts upon physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. While previous research has focused on the influence of decadal-scale climate oscillations such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, recent research has revealed the presence of a quasi-decadal mode of climate variability that, unlike the quasi-stationary standing wave-like structure of the oscillatory modes, involves a progression of atmospheric pressure anomalies around the North Pacific, which has been termed the Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP). In this paper we develop a set of methods to track the spatial and temporal evolutions of the PDP within historical observations as well as numerical model simulations. In addition, we provide a method that approximates the time evolution of the PDP across the full period of available data for real-time monitoring of the PDP. Through the development of these tracking methods, we hope to provide the community with a consistent framework for future analysis and diagnosis of the PDP's characteristics and underlying processes, thereby avoiding the use of different, and disparate, phenomenological- and mathematical-based indices that can confound our understanding of the PDP and its evolution.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC33C1079S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC33C1079S"><span>Atmospheric Teleconnection and Climate Variability: Affecting Rice Productivity of Bihar, India</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Saini, A.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Climate variability brought various negative results to the environment around us and area under rice crop in Bihar has also faced a lot of negative impacts due to variability in temperature and rainfall. Location of Bihar in Northern Plain of India automatically makes it prime location for agriculture and therefore variability in climatic variables brings highly sensitive results to the agricultural production (especially rice). In this study, rainfall and temperature variables are taken into consideration to investigate the impact on rice cultivated area. Change in climate variable with the passage of time is prevailing since the start of geological time scale, how the variability in climate variables has affected the major crops. Climate index of Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean influences the seasonal weather in Bihar and therefore role of ENSO and IOD is an interesting point of inquiry. Does there exists direct relation between climate variability and area under agricultural crops? How many important variables directly signals towards the change in area under agriculture production? These entire questions are answered with respect to change in area under rice cultivation of Bihar State of India. Temperature, rainfall and ENSO are a good indicator with respect to rice cultivation in Indian subcontinent. Impact on the area under rice has been signaled through ONI, Niño3 and DMI. Increasing range of temperature in the rice productivity declining years is observed since 1990.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP43F..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP43F..04S"><span>Insight into the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature- North American Hydroclimate Connection from an Eastern Tropical North Pacific Coral Record</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sanchez, S. C.; Charles, C. D.; Carriquiry, J. D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The last few years of record-breaking climate anomalies across North America--a resilient atmospheric ridge and extreme drought over the West Coast, and severe winters across the Midwest and East Coast regions--have been linked to anomalous Pacific sea surface temperatures (Seager et al. 2014, Wang et al. 2014, Hartmann 2015). The synoptic associations prompt important questions on the relation between these unusual phenomena and extreme expressions of known Pacific decadal modes, such as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). These questions motivate our pursuit to document multiple realizations of decadal variability in the Pacific-North American region through periods of varied radiative forcing. Here we introduce a 178 year, seasonally resolved Porites coral record from Clarion Island (18N, 115W), the westernmost island of the Revillagigedo Archipelago, a region both highly influenced by NPGO SST and SSS variability and critical for NPGO tropical-extratropical communication via the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism (Vimont et al. 2003). When coupled with tree ring records from the western United States (Griffin and Anchukaitis 2014, MacDonald and Case 2005) and coral records from the central tropical Pacific (Cobb et al. 2001), the δ18O signal from the Clarion coral offers an extended framework of coherent continental hydroclimate and oceanic variability across the Pacific basin beyond the instrumental record. Over the last 200 years, we find clear commonality in the timing, magnitude and spatial expression of variability (illustrated through the NADA Atlas, Cook et al. 2004) amongst the proxy records. The strong relationship between Northeastern Pacific Clarion and the Central Pacific Palmyra record with the North American hydroclimate records can be viewed within the mechanistic framework of the NPGO; this framework is then explored over the last millennium across intervals of varied radiative forcing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP43F..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP43F..04S"><span>Insight into the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature- North American Hydroclimate Connection from an Eastern Tropical North Pacific Coral Record</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Svendsen, J. I.; Briner, J. P.; Mangerud, J.; Hughes, A. L. C.; Young, N. E.; Vasskog, K.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The last few years of record-breaking climate anomalies across North America--a resilient atmospheric ridge and extreme drought over the West Coast, and severe winters across the Midwest and East Coast regions--have been linked to anomalous Pacific sea surface temperatures (Seager et al. 2014, Wang et al. 2014, Hartmann 2015). The synoptic associations prompt important questions on the relation between these unusual phenomena and extreme expressions of known Pacific decadal modes, such as the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). These questions motivate our pursuit to document multiple realizations of decadal variability in the Pacific-North American region through periods of varied radiative forcing. Here we introduce a 178 year, seasonally resolved Porites coral record from Clarion Island (18N, 115W), the westernmost island of the Revillagigedo Archipelago, a region both highly influenced by NPGO SST and SSS variability and critical for NPGO tropical-extratropical communication via the Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism (Vimont et al. 2003). When coupled with tree ring records from the western United States (Griffin and Anchukaitis 2014, MacDonald and Case 2005) and coral records from the central tropical Pacific (Cobb et al. 2001), the δ18O signal from the Clarion coral offers an extended framework of coherent continental hydroclimate and oceanic variability across the Pacific basin beyond the instrumental record. Over the last 200 years, we find clear commonality in the timing, magnitude and spatial expression of variability (illustrated through the NADA Atlas, Cook et al. 2004) amongst the proxy records. The strong relationship between Northeastern Pacific Clarion and the Central Pacific Palmyra record with the North American hydroclimate records can be viewed within the mechanistic framework of the NPGO; this framework is then explored over the last millennium across intervals of varied radiative forcing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155262','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155262"><span>The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.; Mathew Barlow,</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMPP23B1394C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMPP23B1394C"><span>Assessing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation proxy potential of the sediment record from Genovesa Crater Lake, Galápagos</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Conroy, J.; Overpeck, J. T.; Cole, J. E.; Collins, A.; Bush, M. B.; Steinitz-Kannan, M.</p> <p>2009-12-01</p> <p>Paleoclimate records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggest significant changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability during the Holocene, but there are still many spatial and temporal gaps in our understanding of past tropical Pacific climate change. Many of the annually-resolved records of past ENSO variability are short, discontinuous, or from outside the tropical Pacific, whereas those records from the tropical Pacific often do not have the temporal resolution to accurately resolve the timing of individual El Niño events. Paleoclimate records from the Galápagos Islands are ideal for reconstructing past changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, since these islands are located in the heart of the ENSO phenomenon. Records from other lakes in the Galápagos have already suggested significant changes in ENSO frequency and the mean state of the eastern tropical Pacific throughout the Holocene. However, these lake sediment records have interannual temporal resolution at best, hampering our understanding of past ENSO dynamics. Here we present our initial findings from an additional Galápagos lake: Genovesa Crater Lake. The Genovesa sediment record is finely laminated and will likely provide a high-resolution paleoclimate record for this region of the tropical Pacific, as well as a means to test the hypotheses proposed by other ENSO reconstructions. Scanning μ-XRF time series of elemental abundances in the Genovesa sediment cores indicate that peaks in Ca abundance reflect the warm/wet season and El Niño events. We hypothesize that during warm/wet periods, a reduced sea bird population around the typically guanotropic Genovesa Crater Lake reduces the guano input into the lake, allowing layers of relatively clean carbonate to precipitate. During the cool season and La Niña events, guano input dilutes the precipitated carbonate. High-resolution pollen and diatom analyses will provide additional constraints on the history of interannual and longer-term variability in the lake sediment record.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1094946-greenhouse-gases-changing-enso-precursors-western-north-pacific','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1094946-greenhouse-gases-changing-enso-precursors-western-north-pacific"><span>Are Greenhouse Gases Changing ENSO Precursors in the Western North Pacific?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Wang, S-Y; Heureux, Michelle L.; Yoon, Jin-Ho</p> <p></p> <p>Using multiple observational and modeling datasets, we document a strengthening relationship between boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the development of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) one year later. The increased WNP-ENSO association emerged in the mid 20th century and has grown through the present, reaching correlation coefficients as high as ~0.70 in recent decades. Fully coupled climate experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) replicate the WNP-ENSO association and indicate that greenhouse gases (GHG) are largely responsible for the observed increase. We speculate that shifts in the location and amplitudesmore » of positive SST trends in the subtropical-tropical western Pacific impacts the low-level circulation so that WNP variability is increasingly influencing the development of ENSO one year later. A strengthened GHG-driven relationship between the WNP and ENSO provides an example of how anthropogenic climate change can potentially improve the skill of intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20810830','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20810830"><span>Interannual variability of human plague occurrence in the Western United States explained by tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C</p> <p>2010-09-01</p> <p>Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950-2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28781392','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28781392"><span>On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nowack, Peer J; Braesicke, Peter; Luke Abraham, N; Pyle, John A</p> <p>2017-04-28</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, state-of-the-art climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. The potential role of atmospheric ozone changes in this context has not been explored before. Here we show that differences between typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations. The vertical temperature gradient of the tropical middle-to-upper troposphere adjusts to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, modifying the Walker circulation and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. We show that neglecting ozone changes thus results in a significant increase in the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. We therefore highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016E%26PSL.442...61C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016E%26PSL.442...61C"><span>A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: Implications for Holocene ENSO evolution</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Sang; Hoffmann, Sharon S.; Lund, David C.; Cobb, Kim M.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Adkins, Jess F.</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of interannual climate variability in the tropics and subtropics. Despite substantial progress in understanding ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO today, relatively little is known about its behavior on centennial and longer timescales. Paleoclimate records from lakes, corals, molluscs and deep-sea sediments generally suggest that ENSO variability was weaker during the mid-Holocene (4-6 kyr BP) than the late Holocene (0-4 kyr BP). However, discrepancies amongst the records preclude a clear timeline of Holocene ENSO evolution and therefore the attribution of ENSO variability to specific climate forcing mechanisms. Here we present δ18 O results from a U-Th dated speleothem in Malaysian Borneo sampled at sub-annual resolution. The δ18 O of Borneo rainfall is a robust proxy of regional convective intensity and precipitation amount, both of which are directly influenced by ENSO activity. Our estimates of stalagmite δ18 O variance at ENSO periods (2-7 yr) show a significant reduction in interannual variability during the mid-Holocene (3240-3380 and 5160-5230 yr BP) relative to both the late Holocene (2390-2590 yr BP) and early Holocene (6590-6730 yr BP). The Borneo results are therefore inconsistent with lacustrine records of ENSO from the eastern equatorial Pacific that show little or no ENSO variance during the early Holocene. Instead, our results support coral, mollusc and foraminiferal records from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that show a mid-Holocene minimum in ENSO variance. Reduced mid-Holocene interannual δ18 O variability in Borneo coincides with an overall minimum in mean δ18 O from 3.5 to 5.5 kyr BP. Persistent warm pool convection would tend to enhance the Walker circulation during the mid-Holocene, which likely contributed to reduced ENSO variance during this period. This finding implies that both convective intensity and interannual variability in Borneo are driven by coupled air-sea dynamics that are sensitive to precessional insolation forcing. Isolating the exact mechanisms that drive long-term ENSO evolution will require additional high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions and further investigation of Holocene tropical climate evolution using coupled climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950033761&hterms=1606&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3D%2526%25231606','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950033761&hterms=1606&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3D%2526%25231606"><span>The global climate of December 1992-February 1993. Part 2: Large-scale variability across the tropical western Pacific during TOGA COARE</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Gutzler, D. S.; Kiladis, G. N.; Meehl, G. A.; Weickmann, K. M.; Wheeler, M.</p> <p>1994-01-01</p> <p>Recently, scientists from more than a dozen countries carried out the field phase of a project called the Coupled-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE), devoted to describing the ocean-atmosphere system of the western Pacific near-equatorial warm pool. The project was conceived, organized, and funded under the auspices of the International Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program. Although COARE consisted of several field phases, including a year-long atmospheric enhanced monitoring period (1 July 1992 -- 30 June 1993), the heart of COARE was its four-month Intensive Observation Period (IOP) extending from 1 Nov. 1992 through 28 Feb. 1993. An overview of large-scale variability during COARE is presented. The weather and climate observed in the IOP is placed into context with regard to large-scale, low-frequency fluctuations of the ocean-atmosphere system. Aspects of tropical variability beginning in Aug. 1992 and extending through Mar. 1993, with some sounding data for Apr. 1993 are considered. Variability over the large-scale sounding array (LSA) and the intensive flux array (IFA) is emphasized.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70197705','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70197705"><span>Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830052666&hterms=iav&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Diav','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830052666&hterms=iav&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Diav"><span>Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Short, D. A.; Cahalan, R. F.</p> <p>1983-01-01</p> <p>Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1130667-oceanic-control-northeast-pacific-hurricane-activity-interannual-timescales','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1130667-oceanic-control-northeast-pacific-hurricane-activity-interannual-timescales"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho</p> <p></p> <p>Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with amore » smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024929','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024929"><span>Climate variability from the Florida Bay sedimentary record: Possible teleconnections to ENSO, PNA and CNP</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Cronin, T. M.; Dwyer, Gary S.; Schwede, S.B.; Vann, C.D.; Dowsett, H.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>We analyzed decadal and interannual climate variability in South Florida since 1880 using geochemical and faunal paleosalinity indicators from isotopically dated sediment cores at Russell Bank in Florida Bay (FB). Using the relative abundance of 2 ostracode species and the Mg/Ca ratios in Loxoconcha matagordensis shells to reconstruct paleosalinity, we found evidence for cyclic oscillations in the salinity of central FB. During this time salinity fluctuated from as low as ~18 parts per thousand (ppt) to as high as ~57 ppt. Time series analyses suggest, in addition to a 5.6 yr Mg/Ca based salinity periodicity, there are 3 other modes of variability in paleosalinity indicators: 6-7, 8-9, and 13-14 yr periods which occur in all paleo-proxies. To search for factors that might cause salinity to vary in FB, we compared the Russell Bank paleosalinity record to South Florida winter rainfall, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the winter Pacific North American (PNA) index, and a surrogate for the PNA in the winter season, the Central North Pacific (CNP) index. SOI and PNA/CNP appear to be associated with South Florida winter precipitation. Time series analyses of SOI and winter rainfall for the period 1910-1999 suggest ~5, 6-7, 8-9 and 13-14 yr cycles. The 6-7 yr and 13-14 yr cycles correspond to those observed in the faunal and geochemical time series from Russell Bank. The main periods of the CNP index are 5-6 and 13-15 yr, which are similar to those observed in FB paleosalinity. Cross-spectral analyses show that winter rainfall and salinity are coherent at 5.6 yr with a salinity lag of ~1.6 mo. These results suggest that regional rainfall variability influences FB salinity over interannual and decadal timescales and that much of this variability may have its origin in climate variability in the Pacific Ocean/atmosphere system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.464....1P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.464....1P"><span>The combined influence of Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation on central Mexico since the early 1600s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Park, Jungjae; Byrne, Roger; Böhnel, Harald</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Periodic droughts have been one of the most serious environmental issues in central Mexico since the earliest times. The impacts of future droughts are likely to become even more severe as the current global warming trend increases potential evaporation and moisture deficits. A full understanding of the mechanism underlying climate variability is imperative to narrow the uncertainty about future droughts and predict water availability. The climatic complexity generated by the combined influence of both Atlantic and Pacific forcings, however, causes considerable difficulty in interpreting central Mexican climate records. Also, the lack of high-resolution information regarding the climate in the recent past makes it difficult to clearly understand current drought mechanisms. Our new high-resolution δ18 O record from Hoya Rincon de Parangueo in central Mexico provides useful information on climate variations since the early 1600s. According to our results, the central Mexican climate has been predominantly controlled by the combined influence of the 20-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the 70-year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). However, the AMO probably lost much of its influence in central Mexico in the early 20th century and the PDO has mostly driven climate change since. Marked dryness was mostly associated with co-occurrence of highly positive PDO and negative AMO between ∼1600 and 1900.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913131A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913131A"><span>Quantifying the intra-annual uncertainties in climate change assessment over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid; Rana, Arun</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Uncertainty is an inevitable feature of climate change impact assessments. Understanding and quantifying different sources of uncertainty is of high importance, which can help modeling agencies improve the current models and scenarios. In this study, we have assessed the future changes in three climate variables (i.e. precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature) over 10 sub-basins across the Pacific Northwest US. To conduct the study, 10 statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs from two downscaling methods (i.e. BCSD and MACA) were utilized at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for the historical period of 1970-2000 and future period of 2010-2099. For the future projections, two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Furthermore, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) was employed to develop a probabilistic future projection for each climate variable. Results indicate superiority of BMA simulations compared to individual models. Increasing temperature and precipitation are projected at annual timescale. However, the changes are not uniform among different seasons. Model uncertainty shows to be the major source of uncertainty, while downscaling uncertainty significantly contributes to the total uncertainty, especially in summer.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41C1320R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41C1320R"><span>Bering Sea Nd isotope records of North Pacific Intermediate Water circulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rabbat, C.; Knudson, K. P.; Goldstein, S. L.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW) is the primary water mass associated with Pacific meridional overturning circulation. While the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate has been extensively studied, a lack of suitable sediment cores has limited past investigations of North Pacific climate and NPIW variability. Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site U1342 (818 m water depth) on Bower's Ridge in the Bering Sea is located at a sensitive depth for detecting changes in NPIW, and it is the only available sub-arctic North Pacific site that offers long, continuous core recovery, relatively high sedimentation rates, excellent foraminifera preservation, and a well-constrained age model over multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. Previous work at Site U1342 from Knudson and Ravelo (2015), using non-quantitative circulation proxies, provides evidence for enhanced NPIW formation during extreme glacials associated with the closure of the Bering Strait and suggest that NPIW was formed locally within the Bering Sea. Our work builds on the potential importance of these results and applies more robust and potentially quantitative circulation proxies to constrain NPIW variability. Here, we present new records of NPIW circulation from Site U1342 based on Nd isotope analyses on fish debris and Fe-Mn encrusted foraminifera, which serve as semi-quantitative "water mass tracers." Weak Bering Sea NPIW formation and ventilation are reflected by relatively lower eNd values indicative of open subarctic North Pacific waters, which are presently predominant, whereas enhanced Bering Sea NPIW formation and ventilation are be reflected by relatively higher eNd values due to the input of Nd from regional volcanic rocks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70162171','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70162171"><span>Lake oxygen isotopes as recorders of North American Rocky Mountain hydroclimate: Holocene patterns and variability at multi-decadal to millennial time scales</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Anderson, Lesleigh; Max Berkelhammer,; Barron, John A.; Steinman, Byron A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Abbott, Mark B.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Lake sediment oxygen isotope records (calcium carbonate-δ18O) in the western North American Cordillera developed during the past decade provide substantial evidence of Pacific ocean–atmosphere forcing of hydroclimatic variability during the Holocene. Here we present an overview of 18 lake sediment δ18O records along with a new compilation of lake water δ18O and δ2H that are used to characterize lake sediment sensitivity to precipitation-δ18O in contrast to fractionation by evaporation. Of the 18 records, 14 have substantial sensitivity to evaporation. Two records reflect precipitation-δ18O since the middle Holocene, Jellybean and Bison Lakes, and are geographically positioned in the northern and southern regions of the study area. Their comparative analysis indicates a sequence of time-varying north–south precipitation-δ18O patterns that is evidence for a highly non-stationary influence by Pacific ocean–atmosphere processes on the hydroclimate of western North America. These observations are discussed within the context of previous research on North Pacific precipitation-δ18O based on empirical and modeling methods. The Jellybean and Bison Lake records indicate that a prominent precipitation-δ18O dipole (enriched-north and depleted-south) was sustained between ~ 3.5 and 1.5 ka, which contrasts with earlier Holocene patterns, and appears to indicate the onset of a dominant tropical control on North Pacific ocean–atmosphere dynamics. This remains the state of the system today. Higher frequency reversals of the north–south precipitation-δ18O dipole between ~ 2.5 and 1.5 ka, and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, also suggest more varieties of Pacific ocean–atmosphere modes than a single Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) type analogue. Results indicate that further investigation of precipitation-δ18O patterns on short (observational) and long (Holocene) time scales is needed to improve our understanding of the processes that drive regional precipitation-δ18O responses to Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability, which in turn, will lead to a better understanding of internal Pacific ocean–atmosphere variability and its response to external climate forcing mechanisms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1841V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.1841V"><span>Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy K.</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>In decadal prediction, the objective is to exploit both the sources of predictability from the external radiative forcings and from the internal variability to provide the best possible climate information for the next decade. Predicting the climate system internal variability relies on initialising the climate model from observational estimates. We present a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following key innovations: (1) the use of a weight applied to the observed anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing anomalies recorded in the observed climate, whose amplitude does not fit in the range of the internal variability generated by the model; (2) the AI of the ocean density, instead of calculating it from the anomaly initialised state of temperature and salinity. An experiment initialised with this refined AI method has been compared with a full field and standard AI experiment. Results show that the use of such refinements enhances the surface temperature skill over part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea for the first forecast year. However, part of such improvement is lost in the following forecast years. For the tropical Pacific surface temperature, the full field initialised experiment performs the best. The prediction of the Arctic sea-ice volume is improved by the refined AI method for the first three forecast years and the skill of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation is significantly increased compared to a non-initialised forecast, along the whole forecast time.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active"><span>12</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_12 --> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRD..11812458B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013JGRD..11812458B"><span>The western Pacific monsoon in CMIP5 models: Model evaluation and projections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Brown, Josephine R.; Colman, Robert A.; Moise, Aurel F.; Smith, Ian N.</p> <p>2013-11-01</p> <p>ability of 35 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to simulate the western Pacific (WP) monsoon is evaluated over four representative regions around Timor, New Guinea, the Solomon Islands and Palau. Coupled model simulations are compared with atmosphere-only model simulations (with observed sea surface temperatures, SSTs) to determine the impact of SST biases on model performance. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate the WP monsoon better than previous-generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) models, but some systematic biases remain. The atmosphere-only models are better able to simulate the seasonal cycle of zonal winds than the coupled models, but display comparable biases in the rainfall. The CMIP5 models are able to capture features of interannual variability in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In climate projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, monsoon rainfall is increased over most of the WP monsoon domain, while wind changes are small. Widespread rainfall increases at low latitudes in the summer hemisphere appear robust as a large majority of models agree on the sign of the change. There is less agreement on rainfall changes in winter. Interannual variability of monsoon wet season rainfall is increased in a warmer climate, particularly over Palau, Timor and the Solomon Islands. A subset of the models showing greatest skill in the current climate confirms the overall projections, although showing markedly smaller rainfall increases in the western equatorial Pacific. The changes found here may have large impacts on Pacific island countries influenced by the WP monsoon.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRD..116.4102Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011JGRD..116.4102Z"><span>Relationships between large-scale circulation patterns and carbon dioxide exchange by a deciduous forest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Jingyong; Wu, Lingyun; Huang, Gang; Notaro, Michael</p> <p>2011-02-01</p> <p>In this study, we focus on a deciduous forest in central Massachusetts and investigate the relationships between global climate indices and CO2 exchange using eddy-covariance flux measurements from 1992 to 2007. Results suggest that large-scale circulation patterns influence the annual CO2 exchange in the forest through their effects on the local surface climate. Annual gross ecosystem exchange (GEE) in the forest is closely associated with spring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), previous fall Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and previous winter East Pacific-North Pacific (EP-NP) pattern. Annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) responds to previous fall AMO and PDO, while annual respiration (R) is impacted by previous fall ENSO and Pacific/North American Oscillation (PNA). Regressions based on these relationships are developed to simulate the annual GEE, NEE, and R. To avoid problems of multicollinearity, we compute a "Composite Index for GEE (CIGEE)" based on a linear combination of spring ENSO and PDO, fall AMO, and winter EP-NP and a "Composite Index for R (CIR)" based on a linear combination of fall ENSO and PNA. CIGEE, CIR, and fall AMO and PDO can explain 41, 27, and 40% of the variance of the annual GEE, R, and NEE, respectively. We further apply the methodology to two other northern midlatitude forests and find that interannual variabilities in NEE of the two forests are largely controlled by large-scale circulation patterns. This study suggests that global climate indices provide the potential for predicting CO2 exchange variability in the northern midlatitude forests.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160003531','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160003531"><span>Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008ClDy...31..909B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008ClDy...31..909B"><span>Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean-atmosphere GCM. Part 2: A diurnally coupled CGCM</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bernie, D. J.; Guilyardi, E.; Madec, G.; Slingo, J. M.; Woolnough, S. J.; Cole, J.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a tropics wide increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST), with the strongest signal being across the equatorial Pacific where the warming increases from 0.2°C in the central and western Pacific to over 0.3°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Much of this warming is shown to be a direct consequence of the rectification of daily mean SST by the diurnal variability of SST. The warming of the equatorial Pacific leads to a redistribution of precipitation from the Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the equator. In the western Pacific there is an increase in precipitation between Papa new guinea and 170°E of up to 1.2 mm/day, improving the simulation compared to climatology. Pacific sub tropical cells are increased in strength by about 10%, in line with results of part 1 of this study, due to the modification of the exchange of momentum between the equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the geostropic convergence at depth, effectively increasing the dynamical response of the tropical Pacific to zonal wind stresses. During the spring relaxation of the Pacific trade winds, a large diurnal cycle of SST increases the seasonal warming of the equatorial Pacific. When the trade winds then re-intensify, the increase in the dynamical response of the ocean leads to a stronger equatorial upwelling. These two processes both lead to stronger seasonal basin scale feedbacks in the coupled system, increasing the strength of the seasonal cycle of the tropical Pacific sector by around 10%. This means that the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean plays a part in the coupled feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere that maintain the basic state and the timing of the seasonal cycle of SST and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined by use of a large scale MJO index, lag correlations and composites of events. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a reduction in overall MJO activity. Precipitation composites show that the MJO is stronger and more coherent when the diurnal cycle of coupling is resolved, with the propagation and different phases being far more distinct both locally and to larger lead times across the tropical Indo-Pacific. Part one of this study showed that that diurnal variability of SST is modulated by the MJO and therefore increases the intraseasonal SST response to the different phases of the MJO. Precipitation-based composites of SST variability confirm this increase in the coupled simulations. It is argued that including this has increased the thermodynamical coupling of the ocean and atmosphere on the timescale of the MJO (20-100 days), accounting for the improvement in the MJO strength and coherency seen in composites of precipitation and SST. These results show that the diurnal cycle of ocean-atmosphere interaction has profound impact on a range of up-scale variability in the tropical climate and as such, it is an important feature of the modelled climate system which is currently either neglected or poorly resolved in state of the art coupled models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP24A..03Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP24A..03Z"><span>Late Miocene - Pliocene Evolution of the Pacific Warm Pool and Cold Tongue: Implications for El Niño</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zhang, Y.; Pagani, M.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The Western Pacific Warm Pool of the tropical Pacific Ocean retains the largest and warmest sea surface water body on Earth, while the eastern equatorial Pacific is characterized by strong upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich deep waters, termed the Pacific cold tongue. Evolution of the Pacific warm pool and cold tongue are important because they control the circum-Pacific climate and impact the globe via El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. Sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions using a single site from the warm pool (ODP 806) and two sites from the cold tongue (ODP 846, 847) suggest that the temperature of the warm pool was "stable" throughout the Plio-Pleistocene, whereas the cold tongue was much warmer in the Pliocene and subsequently cooled. The absence of an east-west Pacific temperature gradient during the early Pliocene is the basis for the "permanent El Niño" hypothesis. However, annually-resolved fossil coral and evaporite records found 3-7 years climate variability during the Pliocene warm period and late Miocene, challenging a "permanent" or invariant climate state. Here we present a multi-proxy (TEX86, UK37, Mg/Ca), multi-site reconstruction of the late Miocene - Pliocene (ca. 12 Ma - 3 Ma) SST in the Pacific warm pool (ODP 806, ODP 769 in the Sulu Sea, ODP 1143 in the South China Sea) and the cold tongue (ODP 850, 849, 846). Our results show that the cold tongue was even warmer in the late Miocene than the Pliocene, and that the warm pool cooled 2-3°C from the late Miocene into the Pliocene - in contrast to the invariant character previously assumed. Temperature comparison between different sites suggests that the warm pool may have expanded in size in the late Miocene. Although eastern and western ends of the tropical Pacific were warmer, a persistent, but low east-west temperature gradient (~3°C) is apparent. This agrees with recent studies which have shown ENSO-related frequency of climate change in the late Miocene and early Pliocene.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PalOc..23.2212G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PalOc..23.2212G"><span>Consistent relationship between global climate and surface nitrate utilization in the western subarctic Pacific throughout the last 500 ka</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Galbraith, Eric D.; Kienast, Markus; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Pedersen, Thomas F.; Brunelle, Brigitte G.; Sigman, Daniel M.; Kiefer, Thorsten</p> <p>2008-06-01</p> <p>The open subarctic Pacific is, at present, a high nitrate low chlorophyll (HNLC) region, where nitrate is perennially abundant at the surface. Theoretically, the HNLC status of this region is subject to modification by ocean circulation and/or micronutrient supply, with implications for the effectiveness of the biological pump and hence carbon sequestration in the ocean interior. Records of biogenic detritus in sediments from throughout the subarctic Pacific indicate that export production was generally lower during glacial maxima, while nitrogen isotope measurements from the Bering Sea have shown that nitrate consumption there was more complete during the last glacial period than it is today. Here, nitrogen isotopic analyses of bulk sediments (δ15Nbulk) from three deep water sites in the open subarctic Pacific are evaluated in terms of regional nitrate isotopic composition and local relative nitrate utilization. The eastern subarctic Pacific δ15Nbulk record bears great similarity to δ15Nbulk records from the western margin of North America over the last glacial cycle, suggesting that variability in the isotopic composition of subeuphotic zone nitrate, the growth substrate, is reasonably coherent throughout the northeast Pacific and dominates at these sites. However, the two western subarctic Pacific records, which lie at the heart of the HNLC region, display a different pattern, implying that significant changes in local relative nitrate utilization overlie the regional background variability. After a novel correction intended to remove the background signal associated with denitrification in the eastern tropical North Pacific, these nitrate utilization records are correlated with a benthic oxygen isotope stack reflecting global deep ocean temperature and ice volume (r2 = 0.65). The correlation implies a strong link between global climate and subarctic Pacific nitrate utilization, with nearly complete nitrate consumption during glacial periods when export production was low.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20404180','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20404180"><span>Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R</p> <p>2010-05-04</p> <p>The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.1129S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.1129S"><span>Observed modes of sea surface temperature variability in the South Pacific region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Saurral, Ramiro I.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; García-Serrano, Javier</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>The South Pacific (SP) region exerts large control on the climate of the Southern Hemisphere at many times scales. This paper identifies the main modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SP which consist of a tropical-driven mode related to a horseshoe structure of positive/negative SST anomalies within midlatitudes and highly correlated to ENSO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) variability, and another mode mostly confined to extratropical latitudes which is characterized by zonal propagation of SST anomalies within the South Pacific Gyre. Both modes are associated with temperature and rainfall anomalies over the continental regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Besides the leading mode which is related to well known warmer/cooler and drier/moister conditions due to its relationship with ENSO and the IPO, an inspection of the extratropical mode indicates that it is associated with distinct patterns of sea level pressure and surface temperature advection. These relationships are used here as plausible and partial explanations to the observed warming trend observed within the Southern Hemisphere during the last decades.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4568235','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4568235"><span>Changing central Pacific El Niños reduce stability of North American salmon survival rates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kilduff, D. Patrick; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Botsford, Louis W.; Teo, Steven L. H.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Pacific salmon are a dominant component of the northeast Pacific ecosystem. Their status is of concern because salmon abundance is highly variable—including protected stocks, a recently closed fishery, and actively managed fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services. Variable ocean conditions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), have influenced these fisheries, while diminished diversity of freshwater habitats have increased variability via the portfolio effect. We address the question of how recent changes in ocean conditions will affect populations of two salmon species. Since the 1980s, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have been more frequently associated with central tropical Pacific warming (CPW) rather than the canonical eastern Pacific warming ENSO (EPW). CPW is linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), whereas EPW is linked to the PDO, different indicators of northeast Pacific Ocean ecosystem productivity. Here we show that both coho and Chinook salmon survival rates along western North America indicate that the NPGO, rather than the PDO, explains salmon survival since the 1980s. The observed increase in NPGO variance in recent decades was accompanied by an increase in coherence of local survival rates of these two species, increasing salmon variability via the portfolio effect. Such increases in coherence among salmon stocks are usually attributed to controllable freshwater influences such as hatcheries and habitat degradation, but the unknown mechanism underlying the ocean climate effect identified here is not directly subject to management actions. PMID:26240365</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26635077','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26635077"><span>Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao</p> <p>2015-12-04</p> <p>High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ChJOL.tmp..116C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ChJOL.tmp..116C"><span>Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario (the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20010026447','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20010026447"><span>Recurrent Interannual Climate Modes and Teleconnection Linking North America Warm Season Precipitation Anomalies to Asia Summer Monsoon Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lau, K. M.; Weng, H. Y.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017099','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017099"><span>Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Gozalez-Rouco, J. F.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28547863','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28547863"><span>High and variable mortality of leatherback turtles reveal possible anthropogenic impacts.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Santidrián Tomillo, P; Robinson, N J; Sanz-Aguilar, A; Spotila, J R; Paladino, F V; Tavecchia, G</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>The number of nesting leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the eastern Pacific Ocean has declined dramatically since the late 1980s. This decline has been attributed to egg poaching and interactions with fisheries. However, it is not clear how much of the decline should also be ascribed to variability in the physical characteristics of the ocean. We used data on individually marked turtles that nest at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, to address whether climatic variability affects survival and inter-breeding interval. Because some turtles might nest undetected, we used capture-recapture models to model survival probability accounting for a detection failure. In addition, as the probability of reproduction is constrained by past nesting events, we formulated a new parameterization to estimate inter-breeding intervals and contrast hypotheses on the role of climatic covariates on reproductive frequency. Average annual survival for the period 1993-2011 was low (0.78) and varied over time ranging from 0.49 to 0.99 with a negative temporal trend mainly due to the high mortality values registered after 2004. Survival probability was not associated with the Multivariate ENSO Index of the South Pacific Ocean (MEI) but this index explained 24% of the temporal variability in the reproductive frequency. The probability of a turtle to permanently leave after the first encounter was 26%. This high proportion of transients might be associated with a high mortality cost of the first reproduction or with a long-distance nesting dispersal after the first nesting season. Although current data do not allow separating these two hypotheses, low encounter rate at other locations and high investment in reproduction, supports the first hypothesis. The low and variable annual survival probability has largely contributed to the decline of this leatherback population. The lack of correlation between survival probability and the most important climatic driver of oceanic processes in the Pacific discards a climate-related decline and point to anthropogenic sources of mortality as the main causes responsible for the observed population decline. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.1840R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.1840R"><span>NorTropical Warm Pool variability and its effects on the climate of Colombia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodriguez, Deisy; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Much has been said about the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on oceanographic and climatic conditions in Colombia, but little is known about the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP), which includes the gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the western tropical North Atlantic. The AWP has been identified by some authors as an area that influences the Earth's climate, associated with anomalous summer rainfall and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The aim of this study was to understand the variation in the AWP and its effects on the climate of Colombia. An annual average of sea surface temperature (SST) was obtained from the composition of monthly images of the Spectroradiometer Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with resolution of 4 km, for one area that comprises the marine territory of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica both the Pacific and the Caribbean, and parts of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, for the period between 2007 and 2013. The results suggest that warm pool is not restricted to the Caribbean, but it also covers a strip Pacific bordering Central America and the northern part of the Colombian coast, so it should be called the Nor-Tropical Warm pool (NTWP). Within the NTWP higher SST correspond to a marine area extending about 1 degree north and south of Central and out of the Colombian Caribbean coast. The NTWP also showed large interannual variability, with the years 2008 and 2009 with lower SST in average, while 2010, 2011 and 2013 years with warmer conditions, matching with greater precipitation. It was also noted that during warmer conditions (high amplitude NTWP) the cold tongue from the south Pacific has less penetration on Colombian coast. Finally, the results suggest a strong influence of NTWP in climatic conditions in Colombia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70193598','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70193598"><span>Integrating satellite observations and modern climate measurements with the recent sedimentary record: An example from Southeast Alaska</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Addison, Jason A.; Finney, Bruce P.; Jaeger, John M.; Stoner, Joseph S.; Norris, Richard D.; Hangsterfer, Alexandra</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Assessments of climate change over time scales that exceed the last 100 years require robust integration of high-quality instrument records with high-resolution paleoclimate proxy data. In this study, we show that the recent biogenic sediments accumulating in two temperate ice-free fjords in Southeast Alaska preserve evidence of North Pacific Ocean climate variability as recorded by both instrument networks and satellite observations. Multicore samples EW0408-32MC and EW0408-43MC were investigated with 137Cs and excess 210Pb geochronometry, three-dimensional computed tomography, high-resolution scanning XRF geochemistry, and organic stable isotope analyses. EW0408-32MC (57.162°N, 135.357°W, 146 m depth) is a moderately bioturbated continuous record that spans AD ∼1930–2004. EW0408-43MC (56.965°N, 135.268°W, 91 m depth) is composed of laminated diatom oozes, a turbidite, and a hypopycnal plume (river flood) deposit. A discontinuous event-based varve chronology indicates 43MC spans AD ∼1940–1981. Decadal-scale fluctuations in sedimentary Br/Cl ratios accurately reflect changes in marine organic matter accumulation that display the same temporal pattern as that of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. An estimated Sitka summer productivity parameter calibrated using SeaWiFS satellite observations support these relationships. The correlation of North Pacific climate regime states, primary productivity, and sediment geochemistry indicate the accumulation of biogenic sediment in Southeast Alaska temperate fjords can be used as a sensitive recorder of past productivity variability, and by inference, past climate conditions in the high-latitude Gulf of Alaska.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP33B2362S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP33B2362S"><span>ENSO variability over the last 2000 years from a sub-decadal lacustrine lipid biomarker record from Isabel Island, Mexico</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sachse, D.; Romero, L.; Kienel, U.; Haug, G. H.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>ENSO is one of the major drivers of inter-annual climate variability and its effects extend far beyond the Tropical Pacific. However, our knowledge about the stability and linearity of ENSO teleconnections is limited due to the short temporal coverage of observational data, in particular of well dated paleo-ENSO records. Here we present a high-resolution record of rainfall variability on the Pacific coast of Mexico, which today is significantly correlated to ENSO variability (NINO 3.4 index), with dryer conditions during an El Niño phase and wetter conditions during a La Niña phase. The lake, situated in a volcanic crater on Isabel Island, is strongly influenced by rainfall intensity, i.e. freshwater and saline sea water input. A halophile bacterial community dominates during dry phases and an algal community dominates in a freshwater lens which develops during the wet season. Specific lipid biomarkers in the sediments indicate the dominant bacterial community (tetrahymanol and long-chain diols, respectively) in an annually laminated sediment core and record the timing and direction of ENSO mean state changes. We find the region was dry before 825 AD, indicating dominant El Niño. Between 825 and 950 AD, wetter conditions provide evidence for a dominating La Niña like pattern. During the early Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 925-1100 AD) we reconstruct a dryer (El Niño like) environment, changing into a La Niña dominated pattern, prevailing until 1700 AD. The late Little Ice Age (LIA, 1700-1850AD) was initially dry and changed into a wetter climate at 1750 AD. Afterwards El Niño dominated in the region. The overall pattern of these changes agrees with other paleoclimate records from the Pacific region. However, our well dated (±20 years) high-resolution record identifies a number of short-lived episodes of deviations from this pattern, in particular during the MCA and the LIA. We also find strong similarities in the timing of these episodes with North Pacific and North Atlantic records, indicating that ENSO-Northern Hemisphere teleconnections existed throughout the last 2000 years. We find that changes in ENSO pattern during the MCA and the LIA predate changes in the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that ENSO changes affected atmospheric circulation patterns and so directly influenced Northern hemispheric climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000060826','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20000060826"><span>Teleconnection Linking Asian/Pacific Monsoon Variability and Summertime Droughts and Floods Over the United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Lau, K. M.; Weng, Hengyi</p> <p>2000-01-01</p> <p>Major droughts and floods over the U.S. continent may be related to a far field energy source in the Asian Pacific. This is illustrated by two climate patterns associated with summertime rainfall over the U.S. and large-scale circulation on interannual timescale. The first shows an opposite variation between the drought/flood over the Midwest and that over eastern and southeastern U.S., coupled to a coherent wave pattern spanning the entire East Asia-North Pacific-North America region related to the East Asian jetstream. The second shows a continental-scale drought/flood in the central U.S., coupled to a wavetrain linking Asian/Pacific monsoon region to North America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Natur.554..351J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018Natur.554..351J"><span>Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>The presence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gas concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum fundamentally altered global ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics. Model simulations and palaeoclimate records suggest that glacial boundary conditions affected the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a dominant source of short-term global climate variability. Yet little is known about changes in short-term climate variability at mid- to high latitudes. Here we use a high-resolution water isotope record from West Antarctica to demonstrate that interannual to decadal climate variability at high southern latitudes was almost twice as large at the Last Glacial Maximum as during the ensuing Holocene epoch (the past 11,700 years). Climate model simulations indicate that this increased variability reflects an increase in the teleconnection strength between the tropical Pacific and West Antarctica, owing to a shift in the mean location of tropical convection. This shift, in turn, can be attributed to the influence of topography and albedo of the North American ice sheets on atmospheric circulation. As the planet deglaciated, the largest and most abrupt decline in teleconnection strength occurred between approximately 16,000 years and 15,000 years ago, followed by a slower decline into the early Holocene.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP53A2312L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP53A2312L"><span>The Nonlinear Response of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere System to Periodic Variations in Insolation and its Association with the Abrupt Climate Transitions during the Quaternary.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lopes, P. G.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The evidences of climate changes during the Quaternary are abundant but the physical mechanisms behind the climate transitions are controversial. The theory of Milankovitch takes into account the periodic orbital variations and the solar radiation received by the Earth as the main explanation for the glacial-interglacial cycles. However, some gaps in the theory still remain. In this study, we propose elucidating some of these gaps by approaching the Equatorial Pacific Ocean as a large oscillator, capable of triggering climate changes in different temporal scales. A mathematical model representing El Ninõ-like phenomena, based on Duffing equation and modulated by the astronomical cycle of 100 ka, was used to simulate the variability of the equatorial Pacific climate system over the last 2 Ma. The physical configuration of the Pacific Ocean, expressed in the equation, explains the temporal limit of the glacial-interglacial cycles. According to the simulation results, consistent with paleoclimate records, the amplification of the effects of the gradual variation of the Earth's orbit eccentricity - another unclear question - is due to the feedback mechanism of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system, which responds non-linearly to small variations in insolation forcing and determines the ENSO-like phase (warm or cold) at different time scales and different intensities. The approach proposed here takes into account that the abrupt transitions between the ENSO-like phases, and the consequent changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) along the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, produce reactions that act as secondary causes of the temperature fluctuations that result in a glaciation (or deglaciation) - as the drastic change on the rate of evaporation/precipitation around the globe, and the increase (or decrease) of the atmospheric CO2 absorption by the phytoplankton. The transitional behavior between the warm and the cold phases, according to the presented model, is enhanced as the rate of SST variation increases.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active"><span>13</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_13 --> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43K..04X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43K..04X"><span>Hiatus on the upward staircase of global warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Xie, S. P.; Kosaka, Y.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Since the 19th century, global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen in staircase-like stages due to contributions from both radiative forcing and internal variability. Our earlier study showed that tropical Pacific variability, specifically the La Nina-like cooling, caused the current hiatus of global warming. We have extended the Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) pacemaker experiment back to the late 19th century, by restoring tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies towards the observed history. POGA reproduces annual-mean GMST variability with high correlation. We quantify relative contributions from the radiative forcing and tropical Pacific variability for various epochs of the staircase. Beyond the global mean, POGA also captures observed regional trends of surface temperature for these periods, especially over the tropical Indian Ocean, Indian subcontinent, North and South Pacific and North America. The POGA effect for the recent hiatus is comparable in magnitude with that at the beginning of the 20th century, but lasts the longest in duration over the past 150 years. The attendant strengthening of the Pacific trade winds since the 1990s is unprecedented on the instrumental record. To the extent that POGA captures much of the internal variability in GMST, we can infer radiatively forced GMST response. This method has the advantage of being independent of the model's radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. While raw data show a warming of 0.9 degree C for the recent five-year period of 2010-2014 relative to 1900, our new calculation yields a much higher anthropogenic warming of 1.2 C after correcting for the internal variability effect. This indicates that the task is more challenging than thought to implement the Paris consensus of limiting global average temperature change to below 2 C above preindustrial levels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2386T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2386T"><span>Modeling distributional changes in winter precipitation of Canada using Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression subjected to different teleconnections</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Chen, Shu; Liu, Bingjun</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Climate change and large-scale climate patterns may result in changes in probability distributions of climate variables that are associated with changes in the mean and variability, and severity of extreme climate events. In this paper, we applied a flexible framework based on the Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile (BSTQR) model to identify climate changes at different quantile levels and their teleconnections to large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA). Using the BSTQR model with time (year) as a covariate, we estimated changes in Canadian winter precipitation and their uncertainties at different quantile levels. There were some stations in eastern Canada showing distributional changes in winter precipitation such as an increase in low quantiles but a decrease in high quantiles. Because quantile functions in the BSTQR model vary with space and time and assimilate spatiotemporal precipitation data, the BSTQR model produced much spatially smoother and less uncertain quantile changes than the classic regression without considering spatiotemporal correlations. Using the BSTQR model with five teleconnection indices (i.e., SOI, PDO, PNA, NP and NAO) as covariates, we investigated effects of large-scale climate patterns on Canadian winter precipitation at different quantile levels. Winter precipitation responses to these five teleconnections were found to occur differently at different quantile levels. Effects of five teleconnections on Canadian winter precipitation were stronger at low and high than at medium quantile levels.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC51E1226H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC51E1226H"><span>Regionally synchronous fires in interior British Columbia, Canada, driven by interannual climate variability and weakly associated with large-scale climate patterns between AD 1600-1900</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Harvey, J. E.; Smith, D. J.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>We investigated the influence of climate variability on forest fire occurrence in west central British Columbia (BC), Canada, between AD 1600 and 1900. Fire history was reconstructed at 8 sites in the Cariboo-Chilcotin region and we identified 46 local (fires that affected 1 site) and 16 moderate (fires that affected 2 sites) fires. Preexisting fire history data collected from nearby sites was incorporated to identify 17 regionally synchronous fire years (fires that affected ³ 3 sites). Interannual and multidecadal relationships between fire occurrence and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern were examined, in addition to the effects of phase interactions between ENSO and PDO. We examined multiple reconstructions of PDO and ENSO and utilized three methodological approaches to characterize climate-fire relationships. We found that the influence of interannual climate expressed as PDSI, increasingly synchronized the occurrence of of fires from local to regional fires. Regional fires were associated with anomalously dry, warm conditions in the year of the fire and in years preceding the fire. We also identified an association between local fires and antecedent moisture conditions, where wetter and cooler conditions persisted 2-3 years prior to fire. This finding suggests that moisture-driven fine fuel development and proximity to grasslands could function as key determinants of local (small-scale) fire history parameters. The relationships we identified between regional fires and ENSO, PDO and PNA suggest that large-scale patterns of climate variability exert a weak and/or inconsistent influence over fire activity in west central BC between AD 1600-1900. The strongest relationships between regional fires and large-scale climate patterns were identified when ENSO and PDO were both in positive phases. We also documented a relationship between regional fires and positive years of the PNA pattern. Our findings suggest that long-term fire planning using predictions of large scale climate patterns may be limited in west central BC, however, the consideration of additive phases of ENSO and PDO, and the PNA pattern, may be effective and has been suggested by others in the inland Pacific Northwest.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP42A..08L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP42A..08L"><span>Reconstructing Tropical Southwest Pacific Climate Variability and Mean State Changes at Vanuatu during the Medieval Climate Anomaly using Geochemical Proxies from Corals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lawman, A. E.; Quinn, T. M.; Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Thirumalai, K.; WU, C. C.; Shen, C. C.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA: 950-1250 CE) is identified as a period during the last 2 millennia with Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures similar to the present. However, our understanding of tropical climate variability during the MCA is poorly constrained due to a lack of sub-annually resolved proxy records. We investigate seasonal and interannual variability during the MCA using geochemical records developed from two well preserved Porites lutea fossilized corals from the tropical southwest Pacific (Tasmaloum, Vanuatu; 15.6°S, 166.9°E). Absolute U/Th dates of 1127.1 ± 2.7 CE and 1105.1 ± 3.0 CE indicate that the selected fossil corals lived during the MCA. We use paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and the δ18O of seawater (a proxy for salinity). To provide context for the fossil coral records and test whether the mean state and climate variability at Vanuatu during the MCA is similar to the modern climate, our analysis also incorporates two modern coral records from Sabine Bank (15.9°S, 166.0°E) and Malo Channel (15.7°S, 167.2°E), Vanuatu for comparison. We quantify the uncertainty in our modern and fossil coral SST estimates via replication with multiple, overlapping coral records. Both the modern and fossil corals reproduce their respective mean SST value over their common period of overlap, which is 25 years in both cases. Based on over 100 years of monthly Sr/Ca data from each time period, we find that SSTs at Vanuatu during the MCA are 1.3 ± 0.7°C cooler relative to the modern. We also find that the median amplitude of the annual cycle is 0.8 ± 0.3°C larger during the MCA relative to the modern. Multiple data analysis techniques, including the standard deviation and the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles of the annual SST cycle estimates, also show that the MCA has greater annual SST variability relative to the modern. Stable isotope data acquisition is ongoing, and when complete we will have a suite of records of paired coral Sr/Ca and δ18O measurements. We will apply similar statistical techniques developed for the Sr/Ca-SST record to also investigate variability in the δ18O of seawater (salinity). Modern salinity variability at Vanuatu arises due to hydrological anomalies associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP11C1370H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPP11C1370H"><span>Thermocline Temperature Variability Reveals Shifts in the Tropical Pacific Mean State across Marine Isotope Stage 3</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hertzberg, J. E.; Schmidt, M. W.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>The eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is one of the most dynamic oceanographic regions, making it a critical area for understanding past climate change. Despite this, there remains uncertainty on the climatic evolution of the EEP through the last glacial period. According to the ocean dynamical thermostat theory, warming (cooling) of the tropical Pacific Ocean may lead to a more La Niña (El Niño)-like mean state due to zonally asymmetric heating and subsequent easterly (westerly) wind anomalies at the equator (Clement and Cane, 1999). Attempts to understand these feedbacks on millennial timescales across Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) have proven to be fruitful in the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) (Stott et al., 2002), yet complimentary, high-resolution records from the EEP are lacking. To provide a more complete understanding of the feedback mechanisms of the dynamical thermostat across periods of abrupt climate change, we reconstruct thermocline temperature variability across MIS 3 from a sediment core located in the EEP, directly within the equatorial cold tongue upwelling region (core MV1014-02-17JC). Temperature anomalies in thermocline waters of the EEP are integrally linked to the ENSO system, with large positive and negative anomalies recorded during El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. Mg/Ca ratios in the thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei were measured at 2 cm intervals, resulting in a temporal resolution of <200 years. Preliminary results across Interstadials 5-7 reveal warmer thermocline temperatures (an increase in Mg/Ca of .25 ± .02 mmol/mol) during periods of cooling following peak Interstadial warmth over Greenland, as seen from the NGRIP δ18O record. Thus, periods of cooling over Greenland appear to correspond to an El Niño-like mean state in the tropical Pacific, in line with predictions of an ocean dynamical thermostat. Interestingly, Heinrich Event 3 corresponds to cooler thermocline temperatures, suggesting a different forcing mechanism of tropical Pacific mean state variability across Heinrich Events. The record will be extended back to 80 kyr BP, and we will also measure Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca ratios across MIS 3 to calculate the zonal E-W sea surface temperature gradient using published records from the WEP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015QSRv..127..155W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015QSRv..127..155W"><span>Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AdAtS..31.1051L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AdAtS..31.1051L"><span>Relationships between interannual and intraseasonal variations of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon hindcasted by BCC_CSM1.1(m)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Xiangwen; Wu, Tongwen; Yang, Song; Li, Qiaoping; Cheng, Yanjie; Liang, Xiaoyun; Fang, Yongjie; Jie, Weihua; Nie, Suping</p> <p>2014-09-01</p> <p>Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability (IAV) and intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV (SAISV) and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability (SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale) of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040171500&hterms=analysis+climatic&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Danalysis%2Bclimatic','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20040171500&hterms=analysis+climatic&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Danalysis%2Bclimatic"><span>Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.</p> <p>2004-01-01</p> <p>Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC23A1209H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC23A1209H"><span>Toward Evaluating the Predictability of Arctic-related Climate Variations: Initial Results from ArCS Project Theme 5</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hasumi, H.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>We present initial results from the theme 5 of the project ArCS, which is a national flagship project for Arctic research in Japan. The goal of theme 5 is to evaluate the predictability of Arctic-related climate variations, wherein we aim to: (1) establish the scientific basis of climate predictability; and (2) develop a method for predicting/projecting medium- and long-term climate variations. Variability in the Arctic environment remotely influences middle and low latitudes. Since some of the processes specific to the Arctic environment function as a long memory of the state of the climate, understanding of the process of remote connections would lead to higher-precision and longer-term prediction of global climate variations. Conventional climate models have large uncertainty in the Arctic region. By making Arctic processes in climate models more sophisticated, we aim to clarify the role of multi-sphere interaction in the Arctic environment. In this regard, our newly developed high resolution ice-ocean model has revealed the relationship between the oceanic heat transport into the Arctic Ocean and the synoptic scale atmospheric variability. We also aim to reveal the mechanism of remote connections by conducting climate simulations and analyzing various types of climate datasets. Our atmospheric model experiments under possible future situations of Arctic sea ice cover indicate that reduction of sea ice qualitatively alters the basic mechanism of remote connection. Also, our analyses of climate data have identified the cause of recent more frequent heat waves at Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes and clarified the dynamical process which forms the West Pacific pattern, a dominant mode of the atmospheric anomalous circulation in the West Pacific region which also exhibits a significant signal in the Arctic stratosphere.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1430238-persistent-anomalies-extratropical-northern-hemisphere-wintertime-circulation-initiator-el-nino-southern-oscillation-events','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1430238-persistent-anomalies-extratropical-northern-hemisphere-wintertime-circulation-initiator-el-nino-southern-oscillation-events"><span>Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation as an initiator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Anderson, Bruce T.; Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Caballero, Rodrigo</p> <p>2017-08-31</p> <p>Climates across both hemispheres are strongly influenced by tropical Pacific variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, extratropical variability also can affect the tropics. In particular, seasonal-mean alterations of near-surface winds associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) serve as a significant extratropical forcing agent of ENSO. However, it is still unclear what dynamical processes give rise to year-to-year shifts in these long-lived NPO anomalies. Here in this paper we show that intraseasonal variability in boreal winter pressure patterns over the Central North Pacific (CNP) imparts a significant signature upon the seasonal-mean circulations characteristic of the NPO. Furthermore » we show that the seasonal-mean signature results in part from year-to-year variations in persistent, quasi-stationary low-pressure intrusions into the subtropics of the CNP, accompanied by the establishment of persistent, quasi-stationary high-pressure anomalies over high latitudes of the CNP. Overall, we find that the frequency of these persistent extratropical anomalies (PEAs) during a given winter serves as a key modulator of intraseasonal variability in extratropical North Pacific circulations and, through their influence on the seasonal-mean circulations in and around the southern lobe of the NPO, the state of the equatorial Pacific 9–12 months later.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1430238','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1430238"><span>Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation as an initiator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Anderson, Bruce T.; Hassanzadeh, Pedram; Caballero, Rodrigo</p> <p></p> <p>Climates across both hemispheres are strongly influenced by tropical Pacific variability associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Conversely, extratropical variability also can affect the tropics. In particular, seasonal-mean alterations of near-surface winds associated with the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) serve as a significant extratropical forcing agent of ENSO. However, it is still unclear what dynamical processes give rise to year-to-year shifts in these long-lived NPO anomalies. Here in this paper we show that intraseasonal variability in boreal winter pressure patterns over the Central North Pacific (CNP) imparts a significant signature upon the seasonal-mean circulations characteristic of the NPO. Furthermore » we show that the seasonal-mean signature results in part from year-to-year variations in persistent, quasi-stationary low-pressure intrusions into the subtropics of the CNP, accompanied by the establishment of persistent, quasi-stationary high-pressure anomalies over high latitudes of the CNP. Overall, we find that the frequency of these persistent extratropical anomalies (PEAs) during a given winter serves as a key modulator of intraseasonal variability in extratropical North Pacific circulations and, through their influence on the seasonal-mean circulations in and around the southern lobe of the NPO, the state of the equatorial Pacific 9–12 months later.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27545818','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27545818"><span>Climate change is projected to reduce carrying capacity and redistribute species richness in North Pacific pelagic marine ecosystems.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A; Polovina, Jeffrey J; Drazen, Jeffrey C</p> <p>2017-03-01</p> <p>Climate change is expected to impact all aspects of marine ecosystems, including fisheries. Here, we use output from a suite of 11 earth system models to examine projected changes in two ecosystem-defining variables: temperature and food availability. In particular, we examine projected changes in epipelagic temperature and, as a proxy for food availability, zooplankton density. We find that under RCP8.5, a high business-as-usual greenhouse gas scenario, increasing temperatures may alter the spatial distribution of tuna and billfish species richness across the North Pacific basin. Furthermore, warmer waters and declining zooplankton densities may act together to lower carrying capacity for commercially valuable fish by 2-5% per decade over the 21st century. These changes have the potential to significantly impact the magnitude, composition, and distribution of commercial fish catch across the pelagic North Pacific. Such changes will in turn ultimately impact commercial fisheries' economic value. Fishery managers should anticipate these climate impacts to ensure sustainable fishery yields and livelihoods. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C54A..08S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C54A..08S"><span>Tropical pacing of Antarctic sea ice increase</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schneider, D. P.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>One reason why coupled climate model simulations generally do not reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice extent may be that their internally generated climate variability does not sync with the observed phases of phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and ENSO. For example, it is unlikely for a free-running coupled model simulation to capture the shift of the PDO from its positive to negative phase during 1998, and the subsequent ~15 year duration of the negative PDO phase. In previously presented work based on atmospheric models forced by observed tropical SSTs and stratospheric ozone, we demonstrated that tropical variability is key to explaining the wind trends over the Southern Ocean during the past ~35 years, particularly in the Ross, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the regions of the largest trends in sea ice extent and ice season duration. Here, we extend this idea to coupled model simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in which the evolution of SST anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is constrained to match the observations. This ensemble of 10 "tropical pacemaker" simulations shows a more realistic evolution of Antarctic sea ice anomalies than does its unconstrained counterpart, the CESM Large Ensemble (both sets of runs include stratospheric ozone depletion and other time-dependent radiative forcings). In particular, the pacemaker runs show that increased sea ice in the eastern Ross Sea is associated with a deeper Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) and stronger westerlies over the south Pacific. These circulation patterns in turn are linked with the negative phase of the PDO, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. The timing of tropical decadal variability with respect to ozone depletion further suggests a strong role for tropical variability in the recent acceleration of the Antarctic sea ice trend, as ozone depletion stabilized by late 1990s, prior to the most recent major shift in tropical climate. In the pacemaker runs, the positive sea ice trend in the eastern Ross Sea is stronger during the most recent period (~2000-2014) than it is during period of rapid ozone depletion (~1980-1996).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1325R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1325R"><span>Calibrating a Method for Reconstructing ENSO Variance in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Using Mg/Ca in Individual Planktic Foraminifera</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rongstad, B.; Marchitto, T. M., Jr.; Koutavas, A.; Mekik, F.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth's dominant mode of interannual climate variability, and is responsible for widespread climatic, ecological and societal impacts, such as reduced upwelling and fishery collapse in the eastern equatorial Pacific during El Niño events. While corals offer high resolution records of paleo-ENSO, continuous and gap-free records for the tropical Pacific are rare. Individual foraminifera analyses provide an opportunity to create continuous down-core records of ENSO through the construction and comparison of species-specific sea surface temperature (SST) distributions at different time periods; however, there has been little focus on calibrating this technique to modern ENSO conditions. Here, we present data from a core-top calibration of individual Mg/Ca measurements in planktic foraminifera in the eastern tropical Pacific, using surface dweller G. ruber and thermocline dweller N. dutertrei. We convert the individual Mg/Ca measurements to inferred temperature distributions for each species, and then compare the distributions to modern day temperature characteristics including vertical structure, annual mean, seasonality, and interannual variability. ENSO variance is theoretically inferred from the tails of the distributions: El Niño events affect the warm tail and La Niña events affect the cool tail. Finally, we discuss the utility of individual measurements of Mg/Ca in planktic foraminifera to reconstruct ENSO in down-core sections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS22A..08P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMOS22A..08P"><span>Revealing climate modes in steric sea levels: lessons learned from satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pfeffer, J.; Tregoning, P.; Purcell, A. P.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, the oceans are accumulating heat. In response to the ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing, the heat is irregularly redistributed within the oceans, causing sea level to rise at variable rates in space and time. These rates of steric expansion are extremely difficult to assess because of the sparsity of in-situ hydrographic observations available within the course of the 20th century. We compare here three methods to reconstruct the steric sea levels over the past 13, 25 and 58 years based on satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses. The interannual to decadal variability of each dataset is explored with a model merging six climate indices representative of the natural variability of the ocean and climate system. Consistent regional patterns are identified for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all datasets at all timescales. Despite the short time coverage (13 years), the combination of satellite geodetic data (altimetry and GRACE) also reveals significant steric responses to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Indian Dipole (IOD) and Indian ocean basinwide (IOBM) mode. The richer information content in the ocean reanalyses allows us to recover the regional fingerprints of the PDO, ENSO, NPGO, IOD and IOBM, but also of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acting over longer time scales (40 to 60 years). Therefore, ocean reanalyses, coupled with climate mode analyses, constitute innovative and promising tools to investigate the mechanisms triggering the variability of sea level rise over the past decades.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP11C1047T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP11C1047T"><span>Recent Increase in North Atlantic Jet Variability Emerges from Three-Century Long Context</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Trouet, V.; Babst, F.; Meko, M. D.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The position and strength of the Northern Hemisphere polar jet stream are important modulators of mid-latitude weather extremes and their societal, ecosystem, and economic impacts. A recent increase in mid-latitude extreme events highlights the need for long-term records of jet stream variability to put recent trends in a historical perspective and to investigate non-linear relationships between jet stream variability, mid-latitude extreme weather events, and anthropogenic climate change. In Europe, anomalies of the North Atlantic Jet (NAJ) create a summer temperature seesaw between the British Isles (BRIT) and the northeastern Mediterranean (NEMED). We combined summer temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from BRIT and NEMED to reconstruct inter-annual variability in the latitudinal position of the August NAJ back to 1725 CE. The two temperature proxies BRIT and NEMED counter-correlate significantly over their period of overlap, thus illustrate the temperature dipole generated by anomalous NAJ positions, and combined explain close to 40% of the variance in the August NAJ target (Fig. 1). The NAJ reconstruction is dominated by sub-decadal variability and no significant long-term poleward or equatorward trends were detected. However, the NAJ time series shows a steep and unprecedented increase in variance starting in the late 1960s. Enhanced late 20th century variance has also been detected in climate and ecosystem dynamics in the Central and Northeast Pacific, which are associated with the latitudinal position of the North Pacific Jet. Our combined results suggest a late 20th century increase in jet stream latitudinal variance in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Basin that can be indicative of enhanced jet stream waviness and that coincides with a recent increase in quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). Our results show a late 20th century amplification of meridional flow in both the North Pacific and the North Atlantic Basin and support more sinuous jet stream patterns and QRA as potential dynamic pathways for Arctic warming to influence midlatitude weather. Moreover, the synchronization of variance increases between the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins in the late 20th century is unprecedented over the last 290 years and strongly suggests an impact of anthropogenic warming.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007JGRD..11220105M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007JGRD..11220105M"><span>Manifestation of remote response over the equatorial Pacific in a climate model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Misra, Vasubandhu; Marx, L.</p> <p>2007-10-01</p> <p>In this paper we examine the simulations over the tropical Pacific Ocean from long-term simulations of two different versions of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model that have a different global distribution of the inversion clouds. We find that subtle changes made to the numerics of an empirical parameterization of the inversion clouds can result in a significant change in the coupled climate of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In one coupled simulation of this study we enforce a simple linear spatial filtering of the diagnostic inversion clouds to ameliorate its spatial incoherency (as a result of the Gibbs effect) while in the other we conduct no such filtering. It is found from the comparison of these two simulations that changing the distribution of the shallow inversion clouds prevalent in the subsidence region of the subtropical high over the eastern oceans in this manner has a direct bearing on the surface wind stress through surface pressure modifications. The SST in the warm pool region responds to this modulation of the wind stress, thus affecting the convective activity over the warm pool region and also the large-scale Walker and Hadley circulation. The interannual variability of SST in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is also modulated by this change to the inversion clouds. Consequently, this sensitivity has a bearing on the midlatitude height response. The same set of two experiments were conducted with the respective versions of the atmosphere general circulation model uncoupled to the ocean general circulation model but forced with observed SST to demonstrate that this sensitivity of the mean climate of the equatorial Pacific Ocean is unique to the coupled climate model where atmosphere, ocean and land interact. Therefore a strong case is made for adopting coupled ocean-land-atmosphere framework to develop climate models as against the usual practice of developing component models independent of each other.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2929061','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2929061"><span>Interannual Variability of Human Plague Occurrence in the Western United States Explained by Tropical and North Pacific Ocean Climate Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ari, Tamara Ben; Gershunov, Alexander; Tristan, Rouyer; Cazelles, Bernard; Gage, Kenneth; Stenseth, Nils C.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>Plague is a vector-borne, highly virulent zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. It persists in nature through transmission between its hosts (wild rodents) and vectors (fleas). During epizootics, the disease expands and spills over to other host species such as humans living in or close to affected areas. Here, we investigate the effect of large-scale climate variability on the dynamics of human plague in the western United States using a 56-year time series of plague reports (1950–2005). We found that El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation in combination affect the dynamics of human plague over the western United States. The underlying mechanism could involve changes in precipitation and temperatures that impact both hosts and vectors. It is suggested that snow also may play a key role, possibly through its effects on summer soil moisture, which is known to be instrumental for flea survival and development and sustained growth of vegetation for rodents. PMID:20810830</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7345143-biological-consequences-interaction-climatic-event-scales-variability-eastern-tropical-pacific-variations-fish-populations','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7345143-biological-consequences-interaction-climatic-event-scales-variability-eastern-tropical-pacific-variations-fish-populations"><span>Biological consequences of interaction of the climatic and event scales of variability in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. [Variations in fish populations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Walsh, J.J.</p> <p>1976-01-01</p> <p>Temporal changes of the Plymouth herring, Atlanto-Scandian herring, Norweigian cod, New York menhaden, Maine lobster, California sardine, anchovy, and red crab, and Japanese herring and sardine are considered in relation to oscillations of Peruvian anchovy and guano bird populations in response to variations of wind strength, of atmospheric and sea surface temperature anomalies, and of current speed for the Eastern Tropical Pacific. It is suggested that marine communities, either off Peru or throughout the ocean, respond in a similar manner to global oscillations at the climatic and El Nino scales by geographical relocation of their centers of abundance. It ismore » further suggested that these two longer scales of variability are minor perturbations of marine ecosystems in comparison with an interaction of overfishing and natural oscillations at the event scale of variability, i.e., that the failure of most of the world's clupeid fisheries may be linked to imposition of this additional stress and the local perturbations of the larval drift of an organism on a time scale of days to weeks.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhDT.......106H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhDT.......106H"><span>An observational and modeling study of the regional impacts of climate variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Horton, Radley M.</p> <p></p> <p>Climate variability has large impacts on humans and their agricultural systems. Farmers are at the center of this agricultural network, but it is often agricultural planners---regional planners, extension agents, commodity groups and cooperatives---that translate climate information for users. Global climate models (GCMs) are a leading tool for understanding and predicting climate and climate change. Armed with climate projections and forecasts, agricultural planners adapt their decision-making to optimize outcomes. This thesis explores what GCMs can, and cannot, tell us about climate variability and change at regional scales. The question is important, since high-quality regional climate projections could assist farmers and regional planners in key management decisions, contributing to better agricultural outcomes. To answer these questions, climate variability and its regional impacts are explored in observations and models for the current and future climate. The goals are to identify impacts of observed variability, assess model simulation of variability, and explore how climate variability and its impacts may change under enhanced greenhouse warming. Chapter One explores how well Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric models, forced by historical sea surface temperatures (SST), simulate climatology and large-scale features during the exceptionally strong 1997--1999 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Reasonable performance in this 'proof of concept' test is considered a minimum requirement for further study of variability in models. All model versions produce appropriate local changes with ENSO, indicating that with correct ocean temperatures these versions are capable of simulating the large-scale effects of ENSO around the globe. A high vertical resolution model (VHR) provides the best simulation. Evidence is also presented that SST anomalies outside the tropical Pacific may play a key role in generating remote teleconnections even during El Nino events. Based on the results from Chapter One, the analysis is expanded in several ways in Chapter Two. To gain a more complete and statistically meaningful understanding of ENSO, a 25 year time period is used instead of a single event. To gain a fuller understanding of climate variability, additional patterns are analyzed. Finally analysis is conducted at the regional scales that are of interest to farmers and agricultural planners. Key findings are that GISS ModelE can reproduce: (1) the spatial pattern associated with two additional related modes, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); (2) rainfall patterns in Indonesia; and (3) dynamical features such as sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and wind in the study regions. When run in coupled mode, the same model reproduces similar modes spatially but with reduced variance and weak teleconnections. Since Chapter Two identified Western Indonesia as the region where GCMs hold the most promise for agricultural applications, in Chapter Three a finer spatial and temporal scale analysis of ENSO's effects is presented. Agricultural decision-making is also linked to ENSO's climate effects. Early rainy season precipitation and circulation, and same-season planting and harvesting dates, are shown to be sensitive to ENSO. The locus of ENSO convergence and rainfall anomalies is shown to be near the axis of rainy season establishment, defined as the 6--8 mm/day isohyet, an approximate threshold for irrigated rice cultivation. As the axis tracks south and east between October and January, so do ENSO anomalies. Circulation anomalies associated with ENSO are shown to be similar to those associated with rainfall anomalies, suggesting that long lead-time ENSO forecasts may allow more adaptation than 'wait and see' methods, with little loss of forecast skill. Additional findings include: (1) rice and corn yields are lower (higher) during dry (wet) trimesters and El Nino (La Nina) years; and (2) a statistically significant negative relationship exists between malaria cases and ENSO. The final chapter adds climate change to the climate variability story. Under high CO2, the model able to capture ENSO dynamics---an atmospheric model coupled to the Cane-Zebiak ocean model ('C4' here)---generates more El Nino-like mean conditions in the tropical Pacific. These changes produce a 4x larger increase in maximum precipitation with warming in C4 than an atmospheric model with a slab ocean (Q4), dramatically enhancing the Pacific Hadley and Walker circulations, and through positive feedbacks, increasing the global temperature. Near Nordeste warming alone (Q4) produces added rainfall, which in C4 is partially cancelled out by El Nino-like changes in the Walker Cell. Both Q4 and C4 produce small changes in Indonesia, although C4 generates large circulation and precipitation anomalies over the Western Indian Ocean. C4 changes in the midlatitudes produce a very strong Pacific North American pattern (PNA) response that dominates a small positive AO change associated with Q4. These PNA changes produce increased rainfall over the Southeastern United States (SEUS) in C4. AO and NAO-like variability are also found to increase with enhanced CO2. This thesis highlights how climate variability influences regional climate variability, with an emphasis on four regions: Nordeste, Brazil, Western Indonesia, the Southeastern United States (SEUS), and the Mediterranean. It links El Nino-driven delay in the onset of rainy season drivers in Western Indonesia to decision-making about when to plant the year's largest crop. In a coupled configuration, the GISS GCM produces strong El Nino-like changes with global warming. This result suggests that the impacts---climatological and agricultural---of climate change may ultimately exceed the impacts of current variability. Somewhat paradoxically, these results indicate that one of the central manifestations of climate change is likely to be changes in patterns of climate variability and their regional impacts.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active"><span>14</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_14 --> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP11E..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP11E..04S"><span>Constraining 20th Century Pacific Trade-Wind Variability Using Coral Mn/Ca</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sayani, H. R.; Thompson, D. M.; Carilli, J.; Ireland, T. J.; Cobb, K. M.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Miller, S. J.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Global mean surface temperatures during the 20th century are characterized by multidecadal periods of either accelerated or reduced rates of warming that cannot be explained by external forcings alone. Both observations and modeling studies suggest that the reduced rate of global surface warming during the early-2000s can be largely explained by decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific, specifically changes in trade-wind strength [e.g. Meehl et al., 2016]. However, the relationship between Pacific trade-wind strength and global surface warming is poorly constrained due to the lack of instrumental wind observations prior to the 1970s. Surface corals are now routinely used to generate records of past sea-surface temperature (SST) change, and have dramatically improved our understanding of oceanic variability in the tropical Pacific. Yet, there are few direct measurements of the atmospheric response to this SST variability. Skeletal Mn/Ca ratios in corals from Tarawa Atoll (1.3˚N, 173˚E) have been shown to track El Niño-related westerly wind events on interannual timescales [Shen et al., 1992], and the strength of Pacific trade winds on decadal timescales [Thompson et al., 2015]. Here, we investigate the utility of this novel wind proxy at Kiritimati Atoll (Christmas Island; 2˚N, 157.5˚W), a site that is hydrographically similar to Tarawa. We use a series of seawater samples collected across the 2015/16 El Niño to characterize and quantify the relationship between westerly wind events and seawater Mn variability around Kiritimati. Anchored by this modern-day calibration, we present a new reconstruction of westerly winds across the late-20thcentury from Kiritimati Atoll. We also assess the reproducibility of coral Mn/Ca across cores collected at varying distances from the lagoon, which represents the primary source of seawater Mn to the reef at our site. Lastly, we discuss the strengths and limitations of this novel proxy, as well as the potential for its application to corals from other sites across the tropical Pacific. ReferencesMeehl, et al., (2016), Nature Climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3107. Shen, et al., (1992), J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, doi:10.1029/92JC00951. Thompson, et al., (2015), Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2321.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H34G..01C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H34G..01C"><span>How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036080','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70036080"><span>Local weather, regional climate, and annual survival of the northern spotted owl</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Glenn, E.M.; Anthony, R.G.; Forsman, E.D.; Olson, G.S.</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>We used an information-theoretical approach and Cormack-Jolly-Seber models for open populations in program MARK to examine relationships between survival rates of Northern Spotted Owls and a variety of local weather variables and long-term climate variables. In four of the six populations examined, survival was positively associated with wetter than normal conditions during the growing season or high summer temperatures. At the three study areas located at the highest elevations, survival was positively associated with winter temperature but also had a negative or quadratic relation with the number of storms and winter precipitation. A metaanalysis of all six areas combined indicated that annual survival was most strongly associated with phase shifts in the Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflect large-scale temperature and precipitation patterns in this region. Climate accounted for a variable amount (1-41%) of the total process variation in annual survival but for more year-to-year variation (3-66%) than did spatial variation among owl territories (0-7%). Negative associations between survival and cold, wet winters and nesting seasons were similar to those found in other studies of the Spotted Owl. The relationships between survival and growing-season precipitation and regional climate patterns, however, had not been reported for this species previously. Climate-change models for the first half of the 21st century predict warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers for the Pacific Northwest. Our results indicate that these conditions could decrease Spotted Owl survival in some areas. Copyright ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2011.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70038501','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70038501"><span>The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014HESSD..11.3111F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014HESSD..11.3111F"><span>Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.</p> <p>2014-03-01</p> <p>In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia, poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts in that region to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied, respectively, to western-central Pacific and central Indian Ocean SST. Variations in these rainfall modes can be predicted using two previously defined SST indices - the West Pacific Gradient (WPG) and Central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with the WPG and CIO being used, respectively, to predict the first and second rainfall modes. These simple indices can be used in concert with more sophisticated coupled modeling systems and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMEP23B0964B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMEP23B0964B"><span>ENSO-Related Variability in Wave Climate Drives Greater Erosion Potential on Central Pacific Atolls</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bramante, J. F.; Ashton, A. D.; Donnelly, J. P.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific over a periodic time scale of 2-7 years. Despite the importance of this climate mode in forcing storm generation and trade wind variability, its impact on the wave climate incident on central Pacific atolls has not been addressed. We used the NOAA Wavewatch III CFSR reanalysis hindcasts (1979-2007) to examine the influence of ENSO on sediment mobility and transport at Kwajalein Atoll (8.8°N, 167.7°E). We found that during El Nino event years, easterly trade winds incident on the atoll weakened by 4% compared to normal years and 17% relative to La Nina event years. Despite this decrease in wind strength, significant wave heights incident on the atoll were 3-4% greater during El Nino event years. Using machine learning to partition these waves revealed that the greater El Nino wave heights originated mainly from greater storm winds near the atoll. The southeastern shift in tropical cyclone genesis location during El Nino years forced these storm winds and contributed to the 7% and 16% increases in annual wave energy relative to normal and La Nina years, respectively. Using nested SWAN and XBeach models we determined that the additional wave energy during El Nino event years significantly increased potential sediment mobility at Kwajalein Atoll and led to greater net offshore transport on its most populous island. The larger storm waves likely deplete ocean-facing beaches and reef flats of sediment, but increase the supply of sediment to the atoll lagoon across open reef platforms that are not supporting islands. We discuss further explicit modelling of storms passing over the atoll to elucidate the confounding role of storm surge on the net erosional/depositional effects of these waves. Extrapolating our results to recent Wavewatch III forecasts leads us to conclude that climate change-linked increases in wave height and storm wave energy will increase erosion on central Pacific atolls.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1253689','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1253689"><span>Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Wharton, Sonia; Falk, Matthias</p> <p></p> <p>We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was –32 ± 84 g C m –2 yr –1 indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmosphericmore » carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m –2 yr –1) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F NEE = –90 g C m –2 yr –1) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F NEE = +17 g C m –2 yr –1). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. Furthermore, these measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1253689-climate-indices-strongly-influence-old-growth-forest-carbon-exchange','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1253689-climate-indices-strongly-influence-old-growth-forest-carbon-exchange"><span>Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Wharton, Sonia; Falk, Matthias</p> <p>2016-04-13</p> <p>We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running Fluxnet stations in the world. From 1998 to 2013, average annual net ecosystem exchange (F NEE) at Wind River AmeriFlux was –32 ± 84 g C m –2 yr –1 indicating that the late seral forest is on average a small net sink of atmosphericmore » carbon. However, interannual variability is high (>300 g C m –2 yr –1) and shows that the stand switches from net carbon sink to source in response to climate drivers associated with ENSO. The old-growth forest is a much stronger sink during La Niña years (mean F NEE = –90 g C m –2 yr –1) than during El Niño when the stand turns carbon neutral or into a small net carbon source (mean F NEE = +17 g C m –2 yr –1). Forest inventory data dating back to the 1930s show a similar correlation with the lower frequency Pacific North American (PNA) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) whereby higher aboveground net primary productivity (F ANPP) is associated with cool phases of both the PNA and PDO. Furthermore, these measurements add evidence that carbon exchange in old-growth stands may be more sensitive to climate variability across shorter time scales than once thought.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMGC23A..06D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUSMGC23A..06D"><span>Spatial patterns of trends and teleconnections in climate indices relevant for Mexican maize</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dewes, C. F.</p> <p>2013-05-01</p> <p>This study contributes to the discussion of climate trends in Mexico and the influence of hemispheric-scale variability patterns over the period 1950-2008. Its uniqueness is three-fold. First, the choice of climate indices under scrutiny aims to represent an agro-climatic perspective, geared towards maize in particular because of the major role this crop plays in Mexico's culture, diet, and economy. Second, the spatial resolution and coverage of these findings can be useful for interpretations at the local level (i.e. district or state), yet keeping the broad national picture in perspective. This should be particularly useful to agro-climate forecasting, assessment of impacts, and/or policy development. Third, this study uncovers a dominance of the North Atlantic over the Pacific Ocean in respect to remote influences on trend patterns in Mexico. Trends in precipitation show that east of the central highlands, the rainy season is starting later and becoming drier. The same is occurring along the Pacific coastal plain, but there an increase in extreme events is also observed. For south-central Mexico and the Yucatán, rains not only are starting earlier but intensity and frequency of extreme events are also increasing. In some of these areas dry days are becoming more frequent. Trends in temperature suggest that highlands are warming at faster rates than lowlands, which in some places are actually cooling. Warming in the fall-winter growing season is more pronounced than in the spring-summer growing season. On the other hand, cold spells during mid-summer are becoming more frequent over the highlands. Connections were found between these trends and large-scale variability patterns, namely El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific North America (PNA), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Caribbean sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Interannual variability related to ENSO and the PNA, and trends towards more Niño-like conditions, are associated with increasing precipitation over the Yucatán and a few areas along the southern Pacific coast, and with more dry days - though accompanied by stronger extreme precipitation events - over southwestern Mexico. They are also associated with a delaying start of the rainy season in a narrow area just east of the south-central highlands and higher risk of frost during late-winter up in the highlands. Increasing Caribbean SSTs are associated with increasing temperatures over the mainland and stronger precipitation over the Yucatán. Variability in the NAO and its trend towards more positive phases is associated the drying trend in central Mexico, intensification of precipitation over the northwest, and also increasing temperatures over the entire mainland in both the warm and cold growing seasons. The atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic Ocean and its increasing tropical SSTs, have a larger and broader participation in Mexican trends than is noted with the Pacific counterparts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A11C0034L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A11C0034L"><span>The Teleconnection Pattern between Hawaii Rainfall and Large-Scale Circulation in Present-Day Conditions and during the Holocene</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, S.; Elison Timm, O.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Kona lows (KLs) are a type of seasonal cut-off cyclones in the North Pacific around the Hawaiian Islands during the cold season month (Oct.-Apr.). KL are important for the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. In this study, the relationship between KLs and North Pacific climate variability was analyzed in order to understand the interannual variations in the number of KLs. The main objectives were (1) to identify mechanisms that control the activity of KL during the recent decades, and (2) to test the stability of the statistical relationships with respect to decadal-scale variability and/or climate shifts. Our study is based on the new data set of KL counts from 1979-2014 (Kaiser, 2014, Univ. Hawaii). For the analysis of large-scale climate pattern, ERA-interim 6-hourly data from 1979-2014 were used including sea level pressure, geopotential heights of the 500hPa level, potential vorticity and zonal wind at 250hPa. We derived cold season averages for the mean and 8-16 day synoptic variability. Standard climate indices for tropical-extratropical climate variability included NINO3.4 and PDO index, and NPO index. The results from the linear correlation analysis show that local 8-16day PV250 variability north of Hawaii can represent Kona Low activity between 1979-2014. KL activity and PV250 variability had both a negative correlation with NINO3.4 index. However, the correlation with NINO3.4 index has diminished after 1995. This shift in correlation coincides with transition of the PDO index from a positive value to negative value during 1990's. Our results suggest that a negative PDO can reduce the ENSO influence on Kona Low activity by modulating the upper zonal jet response. We investigated further the relationship between NPO and Kona Low activity. A strong correlation with the NPO index was found. Two factors that control the time-dependent impacts of ENSO on the KL activity. After the mid-1990s the central tropical Pacific SST were more closely tied to the extratropical NPO mode. In order to test if the results are applicable in the context of paleoclimate applications, where the stability of tropical-extratropical teleconnection mechanisms is crucial for the interpretation of paleoclimate proxy data, we tested the robustness of our results in the TraCE-21ka simulation during the Holocene.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42595','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42595"><span>The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCC...5.1068K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCC...5.1068K"><span>Coupling between air travel and climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Karnauskas, Kristopher B.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Barkley, Hannah C.; Martin, Jonathan E.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The airline industry closely monitors the midlatitude jet stream for short-term planning of flight paths and arrival times. In addition to passenger safety and on-time metrics, this is due to the acute sensitivity of airline profits to fuel cost. US carriers spent US$47 billion on jet fuel in 2011, compared with a total industry operating revenue of US$192 billion. Beyond the timescale of synoptic weather, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and other modes of variability modulate the strength and position of the Aleutian low and Pacific high on interannual timescales, which influence the tendency of the exit region of the midlatitude Pacific jet stream to extend, retract and meander poleward and equatorward. The impact of global aviation on climate change has been studied for decades owing to the radiative forcing of emitted greenhouse gases, contrails and other effects. The impact of climate variability on air travel, however, has only recently come into focus, primarily in terms of turbulence. Shifting attention to flight durations, here we show that 88% of the interannual variance in domestic flight times between Hawaii and the continental US is explained by a linear combination of ENSO and the AO. Further, we extend our analysis to CMIP5 model projections to explore potential feedbacks between anthropogenic climate change and air travel.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43K1792G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43K1792G"><span>Determining the effect of key climate drivers on global hydropower production</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Galelli, S.; Ng, J. Y.; Lee, D.; Block, P. J.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Accounting for about 17% of total global electrical power production, hydropower is arguably the world's main renewable energy source and a key asset to meet Paris climate agreements. A key component of hydropower production is water availability, which depends on both precipitation and multiple drivers of climate variability acting at different spatial and temporal scales. To understand how these drivers impact global hydropower production, we study the relation between four patterns of ocean-atmosphere climate variability (i.e., El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and monthly time series of electrical power production for over 1,500 hydropower reservoirs—obtained via simulation with a high-fidelity dam model forced with 20th century climate conditions. Notably significant relationships between electrical power productions and climate variability are found in many climate sensitive regions globally, including North and South America, East Asia, West Africa, and Europe. Coupled interactions from multiple, simultaneous climate drivers are also evaluated. Finally, we highlight the importance of using these climate drivers as an additional source of information within reservoir operating rules where the skillful predictability of inflow exists.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP51D2329S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP51D2329S"><span>Coral Ensemble Estimates of Central Pacific Mean Climate During the Little Ice Age</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sayani, H. R.; Cobb, K. M.; O'Connor, G.; Khare, A.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hagos, M. M.; Hitt, N. T.; Thompson, D. M.; Deocampo, D.; Lu, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Multi-century, robust records of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) variability from the pre-industrial era are needed to quantify anthropogenic contributions to present-day climate trends and to improve the accuracy of regional climate projections. However, high-resolution reconstructions of tropical Pacific climate are scarce prior to the 20th century, and only a handful exist from the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500-1850CE) immediately prior to the documented rise of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Modern and fossil corals from the northern Line Islands (2-6°N, 157-162°W) have been used to extend the instrumental climate record back into the LIA and beyond, primarily for paleo-ENSO investigations [Cobb et al., 2003, 2013]. However, large offsets in mean coral Sr/Ca and δ18O values observed across overlapping coral colonies translate into 1-2°C (1σ) uncertainties for mean climate reconstructions based on any single fossil coral colony. Here we present the results of a new approach to reconstructing mean climate during the LIA using a large ensemble (N>10) of relatively short (7-15yr long), U/Th-dated fossil corals from Christmas Island (2°N, 157°W). We employ pseudo-coral estimates of paleo-SST and paleo-seawater δ18O variations as benchmarks for our reconstructions, with a focus on quantifying the maximum and minimum potential tropical Pacific SST changes during the LIA that are consistent with our new ensemble of coral data. Lastly, by comparing bulk and high-resolution coral d18O and Sr/Ca records, we identify the strengths and limitations of using a high-N, ensemble approach to climate reconstruction from fossil corals. References:Cobb, K. M., et al. (2003) Nature. doi:10.1038/nature01779Cobb, K. M., et al. (2013) Science. doi: 10.1126/science.1228246</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CSR...156...43K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CSR...156...43K"><span>Recent surface cooling in the Yellow and East China Seas and the associated North Pacific climate regime shift</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Yong Sun; Jang, Chan Joo; Yeh, Sang-Wook</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The Yellow and East China Seas (YECS) are widely believed to have experienced robust, basin-scale warming over the last few decades. However, the warming reached a peak in the late 1990s, followed by a significant cooling trend. In this study, we investigated the characteristics of this low-frequency sea surface temperature (SST) variance and its dynamic relationship with large-scale climate variability through cyclostationary orthogonal function analysis for the 1982-2014 period. Both regressed surface winds on the primary mode of the YECS SST and trends in air-sea heat fluxes demonstrate that the intensification of the northerly winds in winter contribute largely to the recent cooling trend by increasing heat loss to the atmosphere. As a localized oceanic response to these winds, the upwind flow seems to bring warm waters and partially counteracts the basin-scale cooling, thus contributing to a weakening of the cooling trend along the central trough of the Yellow Sea. In the context of the large-scale climate variabilities, a strong relationship between the YECS SST variability and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) became weak considerably during the recent cooling period after the late 1990s as the PDO signals appeared to be confined within the eastern basin of the North Pacific in association with the regime shift. In addition to this decoupling of the YECS SST from the PDO, the intensifying Siberian High pressure system likely caused the enhanced northerly winds, leading to the recent cooling trend. These findings highlight relative roles of the PDO and the Siberian High in shaping the YECS SST variance through the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and attendant oceanic advection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21592531','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21592531"><span>On North Pacific circulation and associated marine debris concentration.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Howell, Evan A; Bograd, Steven J; Morishige, Carey; Seki, Michael P; Polovina, Jeffrey J</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Marine debris in the oceanic realm is an ecological concern, and many forms of marine debris negatively affect marine life. Previous observations and modeling results suggest that marine debris occurs in greater concentrations within specific regions in the North Pacific Ocean, such as the Subtropical Convergence Zone and eastern and western "Garbage Patches". Here we review the major circulation patterns and oceanographic convergence zones in the North Pacific, and discuss logical mechanisms for regional marine debris concentration, transport, and retention. We also present examples of meso- and large-scale spatial variability in the North Pacific, and discuss their relationship to marine debris concentration. These include mesoscale features such as eddy fields in the Subtropical Frontal Zone and the Kuroshio Extension Recirculation Gyre, and interannual to decadal climate events such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.2685P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.2685P"><span>Initialization shock in decadal hindcasts due to errors in wind stress over the tropical Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pohlmann, Holger; Kröger, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Müller, Wolfgang A.</p> <p>2017-10-01</p> <p>Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2-5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2-5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC54C2265P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC54C2265P"><span>Alexander Polonsky Global warming hiatus, ocean variability and regional climate change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Polonsky, A.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>This presentation generalizes the results concerning ocean variability, large-scale interdecadal ocean-atmosphere interaction in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and their impact on global and regional climate change carried out by the author and his colleagues for about 20 years. It is demonstrated once more that Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, which was early referred by the author as "interdecadal mode of North Atlantic Oscillation") is the crucial natural interdecadal climatic signal for the Atlantic-European and Mediterranean regions. It is characterized by amplitude which is the same order as human-induced centennial climate change and exceeds trend-like anthropogenic change at the decadal scale. Fast increasing of the global and Northern Hemisphere air temperature in the last 30 yrs of XX century (especially pronounced in the North Atlantic region and surrounded areas) is due to coincidence of human-induced positive trend and transition from the negative to the positive phase of AMO. AMO accounts for about 50% (60%) of the global (Northern Hemisphere) temperature trend in that period. Recent global warming hiatus is mostly the result of switch off the AMO phase. Typical AMO temporal scale is dictated by meridional overturning variability in the Atlantic Ocean and associated magnitude of meridional heat transport. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the other natural interdecadal signal which significantly impacts the global and regional climate variability. The rate of the ocean warming for different periods assessed separately for the upper mixed layer and deeper layers using data of oceanic re-analysis since 1959 confirms the principal role of the natural interdecadal oceanic modes (AMO and PDO) in observing climate change. At the same time a lack of deep-ocean long-term observing system restricts the accuracy of assessment of the heat redistribution in the World Ocean. I thanks to Pavel Sukhonos for help in the presentation preparing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.H13B1398S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.H13B1398S"><span>Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.</p> <p>2006-12-01</p> <p>The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP31A2204S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPP31A2204S"><span>A New Holocene Lake Sediment Archive from Samoa (Tropical South Pacific) Reveals Millennial Scale Changes in Hydroclimate.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Sear, D. A.; Hassall, J. D.; Langdon, P. G.; Croudace, I. W. C.; Maloney, A. E.; Sachs, J. P.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest source of interannual climate variability on the planet. Its behaviour leads to major hydro-climate impacts around the world, including flooding, drought, and altering cyclone frequency. Simulating ENSO behaviour is difficult using climate models, as it is a complex non-linear system, and hence predicting its future variability under changing climate is challenging. Using palaeoclimate data thus allows an insight into long-term ENSO behaviour against a range of different forcings throughout the Holocene. To date long, coherent, high resolution records from lake sediment archives have been limited to the Pacific Rim. We present new data from the closed crater Lake Lanoto'o, on Upolu Island, Samoa, located within the tropical South Pacific. The lake sediment record extends back into the early Holocene with an average sedimentation rate 0.4mm a-1. We demonstrate a strong correspondence between precipitation at the study site and measures of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)1. We compare geochemical proxies of precipitation to a long-term reconstruction of the SOI2. The resulting proxy SOI record extends over the last 9000 years, revealing scales of change in ENSO that match those recorded from sites located on the Pacific rim3,4. A major period of La-Nina dominance occurs around 4.5ka BP before abruptly switching to El-Nino dominance around 3.2ka. Thereafter, phases of El-Nino - La Nina dominance, alternate every c. 400yrs. The results point to prolonged phases of enhanced or reduced precipitation - conditions that may influence future population resilience to climate change, and may also have been triggers for the colonisation of more remote eastern Polynesia. 1. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/SOI.signal.annstd.ascii. 2. Yan, H. et al. (2011) Nature Geoscience, 4, p.611. 3. Conroy J. L. et al. (2008) Quaternary Science Reviews, 27, p.1166 4. Moy, C. M. et al. (2002) Nature, 420, p.162</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active"><span>15</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_15 --> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918417F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1918417F"><span>The role of external forcing and Pacific trade winds in recent changes of the global climate system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Friedman, Andrew; Gastineau, Guillaume; Khodri, Myriam</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The Pacific trade winds experienced an unprecedented strengthening since the mid 1990s. Several studies have proposed that the increased Pacific trade winds were associated with the reduced rate of global mean surface temperature warming in the first decade of the 21st century, as well as far-reaching atmospheric teleconnections. We designed a set of ensemble partial coupling experiments using the IPSL-CM5A-LR coupled model that allow us to cleanly distinguish the influence of Pacific trade wind variability from that of external forcing over the past few decades. In this study, we quantify the respective impacts of these processes on surface temperature, ocean heat content, and atmospheric teleconnections. We designed two ensembles of coupled simulations using partial coupling with the IPSL-CM5A-LR model to separate the Pacific internal variability and that of external radiative forcing. We prescribe surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific (20°S to 20°N) from 1979-2014 in two ensembles of 30 members each: (1) Prescribed climatological model wind stress, which allows us to estimate the influence of external radiative forcing in the absence of variability within the Pacific Ocean. (2) Wind stress anomalies from ERA-Interim reanalysis added to the model wind stress climatology, which accounts for the effects of both external radiative forcing and the wind stress variability. We find that the observed wind stress anomalies account for the pattern of eastern tropical Pacific cooling when compared to the climatology experiment, so that it resembles the observed trends from 1992-2011. The tropical Pacific shows dominant heat uptake in the western Pacific above the 20°C isotherm, which contributed to slow the warming of tropical SST during the 2000s. The trade wind increase is associated with a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation, and zonal shifts in tropical rainfall. Despite tropical SST biases which affect the response of tropical rainfall and the location of deep convection, the wind stress anomaly forcing effectively simulates the wave train pattern emanating from the tropical Pacific, and associated extratropical teleconnections such as a weakening of the Aleutian Low and drought in North America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011E%26PSL.310..319L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011E%26PSL.310..319L"><span>Pacific/North American teleconnection controls on precipitation isotope ratios across the contiguous United States</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Zhongfang; Kennedy, Casey D.; Bowen, Gabriel J.</p> <p>2011-10-01</p> <p>Large-scale climate teleconnections such as the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern strongly influence atmospheric processes and continental climate. Here we show that precipitation δ 18O values in the contiguous United States are correlated with an index of the PNA pattern. The δ 18O/PNA relationship varies across the study region and exhibits two prominent modes, with positive correlation in the western USA and negative correlation in the east. This spatial pattern appears not to reflect variation in local climate variables, but rather primarily reflects differences in atmospheric circulation and moisture sources associated with PNA. Our results suggest that strong antiphase variation in paired paleo-water δ 18O proxy records from regions characterized by the two modes of δ 18O/PNA correlation, especially in the Midwest and southwestern USA, may provide a robust basis for reconstruction of past variation in the PNA pattern.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015DSRII.113..260W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015DSRII.113..260W"><span>Climate change impacts on leatherback turtle pelagic habitat in the Southeast Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Willis-Norton, Ellen; Hazen, Elliott L.; Fossette, Sabrina; Shillinger, George; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Foley, David G.; Dunne, John P.; Bograd, Steven J.</p> <p>2015-03-01</p> <p>Eastern Pacific populations of the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) have declined by over 90% during the past three decades. The decline is primarily attributed to human pressures, including unsustainable egg harvest, development on nesting beaches, and by-catch mortality. In particular, the effects of climate change may impose additional stresses upon already threatened leatherback populations. This study analyzes how the pelagic habitat of Eastern Pacific leatherbacks may be affected by climate change over the next century. This population adheres to a persistent migration pattern; following nesting at Playa Grande, Costa Rica, individuals move rapidly through equatorial currents and into foraging habitat within the oligotrophic South Pacific Gyre. Forty-six nesting females were fitted with satellite tags. Based on the turtle positions, ten environmental variables were sampled along the tracks. Presence/absence habitat models were created to determine the oceanographic characteristics of the preferred turtle habitat. Core pelagic habitat was characterized by relatively low sea surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a. Based on these habitat models, we predicted habitat change using output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory prototype Earth System Model under the Special Report on Emissions Scenario A2 (business-as-usual). Although the model predicted both habitat losses and gains throughout the region, we estimated that overall the core pelagic habitat of the Eastern Pacific leatherback population will decline by approximately 15% within the next century. This habitat modification might increase pressure on a critically endangered population, possibly forcing distributional shifts, behavioral changes, or even extinction.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP54B..02B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP54B..02B"><span>Multi-Proxy Reconstructions of Northeast Pacific Decadal Variability from Bivalve Mollusks and Trees</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Black, B.; Griffin, D.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Decadal-scale climate variability in the Northeast Pacific Ocean profoundly influences fisheries production, forest growth, wildfire, drought, and snowpack in western North America. However, there remains considerable and long-standing uncertainly in its behavior prior to AD 1900 and the extent to which 20th century dynamics are atypical in a multi-centennial context. Here, we target the leading EOF of SST in the northeastern Pacific (ARCSST) as an index of Pacific Decadal Variability, which has been dynamically linked to sea level pressure and unlike the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index, retains a linear warming trend. The ARCSST reconstruction is generated from a broad network of target-sensitive North American tree-ring data standardized using signal-free detrending to preserve lower frequency signals common to the original data. In a preliminary analysis, the mean of the approximately 50 chronologies that significantly (p < 0.01) correlate to the target variable explain 60% of the variance in cool-season ARCSST. Reconstruction skill is independently verified by three marine bivalve (Pacific geoduck; Panopea generosa) chronologies, the mean of which accounts for over 50% of the reconstruction variance over the common 1870-1900 interval. The nested reconstruction spans over 500 years and indicates that i) PDV is dominated by pentadecadal cycles, ii) century-long quiescent periods can occur, iii) 20th century regime shifts are typical, but iv) late 20th century warming is atypical in the longer-term context. Moreover, the reconstruction closely tracks paleofisheries datasets, particularly northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) abundance inferred from scale deposition rates in the Santa Barbara Basin.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12917678','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12917678"><span>Climate-driven changes to the atmospheric CO2 sink in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Dore, John E; Lukas, Roger; Sadler, Daniel W; Karl, David M</p> <p>2003-08-14</p> <p>The oceans represent a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variability in the strength of this sink occurs on interannual timescales, as a result of regional and basin-scale changes in the physical and biological parameters that control the flux of this greenhouse gas into and out of the surface mixed layer. Here we analyse a 13-year time series of oceanic carbon dioxide measurements from station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, and find a significant decrease in the strength of the carbon dioxide sink over the period 1989-2001. We show that much of this reduction in sink strength can be attributed to an increase in the partial pressure of surface ocean carbon dioxide caused by excess evaporation and the accompanying concentration of solutes in the water mass. Our results suggest that carbon dioxide uptake by ocean waters can be strongly influenced by changes in regional precipitation and evaporation patterns brought on by climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1610754V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1610754V"><span>A variant of the anomaly initialisation approach for global climate forecast models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Volpi, Danila; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Hawkins, Ed; Nichols, Nancy; Carrassi, Alberto</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>This work presents a refined method of anomaly initialisation (AI) applied to the ocean and sea ice components of the global climate forecast model EC-Earth, with the following particularities: - the use of a weight to the anomalies, in order to avoid the risk of introducing too big anomalies recorded in the observed state, whose amplitude does not fit the range of the internal variability generated by the model. - the AI of the temperature and density ocean state variables instead of the temperature and salinity. Results show that the use of such refinements improve the skill over the Arctic region, part of the North and South Atlantic, part of the North and South Pacific and the Mediterranean Sea. In the Tropical Pacific the full field initialised experiment performs better. This is probably due to a displacement of the observed anomalies caused by the use of the AI technique. Furthermore, preliminary results of an anomaly nudging experiment are discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155521','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155521"><span>Holocene climate variability in Texas, USA: An integration of existing paleoclimate data and modeling with a new, high-resolution speleothem record</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Wong, Corinne I.; Banner, Jay L.; Musgrove, MaryLynn</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Delineating the climate processes governing precipitation variability in drought-prone Texas is critical for predicting and mitigating climate change effects, and requires the reconstruction of past climate beyond the instrumental record. We synthesize existing paleoclimate proxy data and climate simulations to provide an overview of climate variability in Texas during the Holocene. Conditions became progressively warmer and drier transitioning from the early to mid Holocene, culminating between 7 and 3 ka (thousand years ago), and were more variable during the late Holocene. The timing and relative magnitude of Holocene climate variability, however, is poorly constrained owing to considerable variability among the different records. To help address this, we present a new speleothem (NBJ) reconstruction from a central Texas cave that comprises the highest resolution proxy record to date, spanning the mid to late Holocene. NBJ trace-element concentrations indicate variable moisture conditions with no clear temporal trend. There is a decoupling between NBJ growth rate, trace-element concentrations, and δ18O values, which indicate that (i) the often direct relation between speleothem growth rate and moisture availability is likely complicated by changes in the overlying ecosystem that affect subsurface CO2 production, and (ii) speleothem δ18O variations likely reflect changes in moisture source (i.e., proportion of Pacific-vs. Gulf of Mexico-derived moisture) that appear not to be linked to moisture amount.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.1442Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JGRD..121.1442Z"><span>Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX East Asia domain: A comparison of regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model to stand-alone RCM simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zou, Liwei; Zhou, Tianjun; Peng, Dongdong</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>The FROALS (flexible regional ocean-atmosphere-land system) model, a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model, has been applied to the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia domain. Driven by historical simulations from a global climate system model, dynamical downscaling for the period from 1980 to 2005 has been conducted at a uniform horizontal resolution of 50 km. The impacts of regional air-sea couplings on the simulations of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall have been investigated, and comparisons have been made to corresponding simulations performed using a stand-alone regional climate model (RCM). The added value of the FROALS model with respect to the driving global climate model was evident in terms of both climatology and the interannual variability of summer rainfall over East China by the contributions of both the high horizontal resolution and the reasonably simulated convergence of the moisture fluxes. Compared with the stand-alone RCM simulations, the spatial pattern of the simulated low-level monsoon flow over East Asia and the western North Pacific was improved in the FROALS model due to its inclusion of regional air-sea coupling. The results indicated that the simulated sea surface temperature (SSTs) resulting from the regional air-sea coupling were lower than those derived directly from the driving global model over the western North Pacific north of 15°N. These colder SSTs had both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, they strengthened the western Pacific subtropical high, which improved the simulation of the summer monsoon circulation over East Asia. On the other hand, the colder SSTs suppressed surface evaporation and favored weaker local interannual variability in the SST, which led to less summer rainfall and weaker interannual rainfall variability over the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Overall, the reference simulation performed using the FROALS model is reasonable in terms of rainfall over the land area of East Asia and will become the basis for the generation of climate change scenarios for the CORDEX East Asia domain that will be described in future reports.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4669523','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4669523"><span>Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23112174','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23112174"><span>Indian Ocean warming modulates Pacific climate change.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Luo, Jing-Jia; Sasaki, Wataru; Masumoto, Yukio</p> <p>2012-11-13</p> <p>It has been widely believed that the tropical Pacific trade winds weakened in the last century and would further decrease under a warmer climate in the 21st century. Recent high-quality observations, however, suggest that the tropical Pacific winds have actually strengthened in the past two decades. Precise causes of the recent Pacific climate shift are uncertain. Here we explore how the enhanced tropical Indian Ocean warming in recent decades favors stronger trade winds in the western Pacific via the atmosphere and hence is likely to have contributed to the La Niña-like state (with enhanced east-west Walker circulation) through the Pacific ocean-atmosphere interactions. Further analysis, based on 163 climate model simulations with centennial historical and projected external radiative forcing, suggests that the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific's could play an important role in modulating the Pacific climate changes in the 20th and 21st centuries.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1425660-enso-driven-energy-budget-perturbations-observations-cmip-models','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1425660-enso-driven-energy-budget-perturbations-observations-cmip-models"><span>ENSO-driven energy budget perturbations in observations and CMIP models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Mayer, Michael; Fasullo, John T.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; ...</p> <p>2016-03-19</p> <p>Various observation-based datasets are employed to robustly quantify changes in ocean heat content (OHC), anomalous ocean–atmosphere energy exchanges and atmospheric energy transports during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These results are used as a benchmark to evaluate the energy pathways during ENSO as simulated by coupled climate model runs from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 archives. The models are able to qualitatively reproduce observed patterns of ENSO-related energy budget variability to some degree, but key aspects are seriously biased. Area-averaged tropical Pacific OHC variability associated with ENSO is greatly underestimated by all models because of strongly biased responses of net radiation atmore » top-of-the-atmosphere to ENSO. The latter are related to biases of mean convective activity in the models and project on surface energy fluxes in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone region. Moreover, models underestimate horizontal and vertical OHC redistribution in association with the generally too weak Bjerknes feedback, leading to a modeled ENSO affecting a too shallow layer of the Pacific. Vertical links between SST and OHC variability are too weak even in models driven with observed winds, indicating shortcomings of the ocean models. Furthermore, modeled teleconnections as measured by tropical Atlantic OHC variability are too weak and the tropical zonal mean ENSO signal is strongly underestimated or even completely missing in most of the considered models. In conclusion, results suggest that attempts to infer insight about climate sensitivity from ENSO-related variability are likely to be hampered by biases in ENSO in CMIP simulations that do not bear a clear link to future changes.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP44C..08Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP44C..08Y"><span>Climate-forced variability of suboxia and associated N-loses in the Pacific Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yang, S.; Gruber, N.; Long, M. C.; Vogt, M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) hosts two of the world's three Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs), large bodies of suboxic water that are subject to high rates of water column denitrification. In the mean, these two ODZs are responsible for about 15 to 40% of all fixed N loss in the ocean, but little is known about how this loss varies in time. Here, we use a hindcast simulation with the ocean component of the NCAR Community Earth System Model over the period 1960 to 2009 to show that Pacific ODZ structures and their associated rates of N-loss are subject to strong climate forced variability and change. In particular, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drives large interannual variations in the rate of water column denitrification such that mature La Niña conditions exhibit peak denitrification rates that are up to 70% higher than the mean rates, and vice versa during El Niños. At the same time, we simulate large decadal trends in the rate of Pacific N-loss, which decreases by 10 Tg y-1 from the 1960s to the 1980s and subsequently increases by 30 Tg y-1 towards 2009. We demonstrate that this large variability is the result of wind-driven changes in circulation and isopycnal structure concurrently modifying the thermocline distribution of O2 and organic matter export. Finally, we show that the decadal trends in denitrification are recorded by the isotopic signature of particulate organic nitrogen in the ETP but that the interpretation of the signals is non trivial, reflecting both physical and biogeochemical changes as well as contamination by atmospheric pollutants.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/569258-interaction-between-enso-asian-monsoon-coral-record-tropical-climate','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/569258-interaction-between-enso-asian-monsoon-coral-record-tropical-climate"><span>Interaction between the ENSO and the Asian monsoon in a coral record of tropical climate</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Charles, C.D.; Hunter, D.E.; Fairbanks, R.G.</p> <p>1997-08-15</p> <p>The oxygen isotopic composition of a banded coral from the western equatorial Indian Ocean provides a 150-year-long history of the relation between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the Asian monsoon. Interannual cycles in the coral time series were found to correlate with Pacific coral and instrumental climate records, suggesting a consistent linkage across ocean basins, despite the changing frequency and amplitude of the ENSO. However, decadal variability that is characteristic of the monsoon system also dominates the coral record, which implies important interactions between tropical and midlatitude climate variability. One prominent manifestation of this interaction is the strongmore » amplitude modulation of the quasi-biennial cycle. 26 refs., 4 figs.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AdAtS..29..910H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AdAtS..29..910H"><span>Characteristics, processes, and causes of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon system</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Huang, Ronghui; Chen, Jilong; Wang, Lin; Lin, Zhongda</p> <p>2012-09-01</p> <p>Recent advances in the study of the characteristics, processes, and causes of spatio-temporal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) system are reviewed in this paper. The understanding of the EAM system has improved in many aspects: the basic characteristics of horizontal and vertical structures, the annual cycle of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) system and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) system, the characteristics of the spatio-temporal variabilities of the EASM system and the EAWM system, and especially the multiple modes of the EAM system and their spatio-temporal variabilities. Some new results have also been achieved in understanding the atmosphere-ocean interaction and atmosphere-land interaction processes that affect the variability of the EAM system. Based on recent studies, the EAM system can be seen as more than a circulation system, it can be viewed as an atmosphere-ocean-land coupled system, namely, the EAM climate system. In addition, further progress has been made in diagnosing the internal physical mechanisms of EAM climate system variability, especially regarding the characteristics and properties of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection over East Asia and the North Pacific, the "Silk Road" teleconnection along the westerly jet stream in the upper troposphere over the Asian continent, and the dynamical effects of quasi-stationary planetary wave activity on EAM system variability. At the end of the paper, some scientific problems regarding understanding the EAM system variability are proposed for further study.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.B43D1587W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.B43D1587W"><span>Examining the Influence of Teleconnection Patterns on CO2 Fluxes at an Old-Growth Forest Scaling from Stand to Region Using MODIS</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wharton, S.; Chasmer, L.; Falk, M.; Paw U, K.</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>In this study, year-to-year variability in three of the major Pacific teleconnection patterns were examined to determine if CO2 and H2O fluxes at an old-growth forest in the Pacific Northwest were affected by climatic changes associated with these patterns. The three cycles examined are the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific/North American Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We centered our study on the Wind River Canopy Crane, an AmeriFlux tower located in a 500 year old conifer forest in southern Washington State. CO2 and H2O fluxes have been measured continuously for six years using the eddy covariance method. The objectives of this study are to: 1. determine to what extent teleconnection patterns influence measured CO2 and H2O fluxes through mechanistic anomalies; 2. ascertain if climatic shifts affect annual vegetation canopy characteristics; and 3. make comparisons at the local and regional scales using MODIS. The ecosystem was a significant sink of carbon (-207 gC m-2 year-1) in 1999 but turned into a large carbon source (+ 100 gC m-2 year-1) in 2003. NEE significantly (above the 95th CI) lags the PNA, ENSO and PDO indicating that these patterns affect the forest carbon budget across overlapping time scales. To ascertain the influence of atmospheric patterns on fluxes, we categorized the flux measurement years based on in-phase climate events (1999 = La Niña/cool PDO, 2003 = El Niño/warm PDO, 2000-2002, 2004 = neutral ENSO years). The results of this analysis indicate that the Pacific Ocean/atmospheric oscillation anomalies explain much of variance in annual NEE (R2 = 0.78 between NEE and the PDO, R2 = 0.87 for the PNA, and R2 = 0.56 for ENSO). Teleconnection patterns are found to be associated mostly with air temperature, precipitation, and incoming light radiation (cloudy vs. sunny conditions). Important meteorological driving mechanisms of fluxes include: water- use efficiency (WUE), light-use efficiency (LUE) and canopy structure parameters (e.g., fPAR). Tower-based fPAR was strongly related to NEE (R2 = 0.78) and climatic patterns (R2 = 0.84 with ENSO and R2 = 0.76 with PDO). Variability in fluxes may be a result of changes in the canopy structural characteristics; for example higher, fPAR (e.g., 2003) correlated well with increased respiration fluxes. MODIS data (200 km X 200 km area) were obtained to determine if anomalies in vegetation indices and canopy structure could be linked to teleconnection patterns at the site level and across the region. The MODIS-derived Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) correlated well with yearly cumulative NEE at the tower and regional EVI anomalies were strongly negatively correlated with the annual PDO index (R2 = 0.9). MODIS-derived fPAR product correlated with yearly variability in the PDO (R2 = 0.34) at the site level. Therefore, there is reasonable expectation that structural changes, as a result of climate variability during strongly positive or negative teleconnection patterns, will be observed in other parts of the Pacific Northwest. MODIS data is useful for identifying the effects of teleconnections across a regional scale.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.2087G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.2087G"><span>Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 years</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gergis, Joëlle; Henley, Benjamin J.</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>This study presents an analysis of three palaeoclimate rainfall reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere regions of south-eastern Australia (SEA), southern South Africa (SAF) and southern South America (SSA). We provide a first comparison of rainfall variations in these three regions over the past two centuries, with a focus on identifying synchronous wet and dry periods. Despite the uncertainties associated with the spatial and temporal limitations of the rainfall reconstructions, we find evidence of dynamically-forced climate influences. An investigation of the twentieth century relationship between regional rainfall and the large-scale climate circulation features of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Ocean regions revealed that Indo-Pacific variations of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole dominate rainfall variability in SEA and SAF, while the higher latitude Southern Annular Mode (SAM) exerts a greater influence in SSA. An assessment of the stability of the regional rainfall-climate circulation modes over the past two centuries revealed a number of non-stationarities, the most notable of which occurs during the early nineteenth century around 1820. This corresponds to a time when the influence of ENSO on SEA, SAF and SSA rainfall weakens and there is a strengthening of the influence of SAM. We conclude by advocating the use of long-term palaeoclimate data to estimate decadal rainfall variability for future water resource management.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..01S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSH42A..01S"><span>Solar Influences on El Nino/Southern Oscillation Dynamics Over the Last Millennium</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Stevenson, S.; Capotondi, A.; Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits considerable differences between the evolution of individual El Nino and La Nina events (`ENSO diversity'), with significant implications for impacts studies. However, the degree to which external forcing may affect ENSO diversity is not well understood, due to both internal variability and potentially compensatory contributions from multiple forcings. The Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM LME) provides an ideal testbed for studying the sensitivity of twentieth century ENSO to forced climate changes, as it contains many realizations of the 850-2005 period with differing combinations of forcings. Metrics of ENSO amplitude and diversity are compared across LME simulations, and although forced changes to ENSO amplitude are generally small, forced changes to diversity are often detectable. Anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gas and ozone/aerosol emissions modify the persistence of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events, through shifts in the upwelling and zonal advective feedbacks; these influences generally cancel one another over the twentieth century. Natural forcings are generally small over the 20th century, but when epochs of high/low solar irradiance are compared, distinct shifts in the development and termination of El Nino events can be observed. This indicates that solar variability can indeed have a significant role to play in setting the characteristics of tropical Pacific climate variability. Implications for configuring and evaluating projections of future climate change will be discussed.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.9370G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.9370G"><span>West African Monsoon dynamics in idealized simulations: the competitive roles of SST warming and CO2</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Hourdin, Frederic; Bastin, Sophie; Braconnot, Pascale; Bony, Sandrine</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in the Sahelian belt. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM past variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections. In this work, the July-to-September (JAS) WAM variability in the period 1979-2008 is studied in AMIP-like simulations (SST-forced) from CMIP5. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increasing are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively. Results show a dry response in Sahel to SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet, and a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet. The co-variability between global SST and WAM precipitation is also investigated, highlighting a reorganization of the main co-variability modes. Namely, in the 4xCO2 simulation the influence of Tropical Pacific is dominant, while it is reduced in the 4K simulation, which also shows an increased coupling with the eastern Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The above results suggest a competitive action of SST warming and CO2 increasing on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The combination of the observed positive and negative response in precipitation, with wet conditions in central-eastern Sahel and dry conditions in western Sahel, is consistent with the future precipitation trends over West Africa resulting from CMIP5 coupled simulations. It is argued that the large spread in CMIP5 future projections may be related to the weight given to SST warming and direct CO2 effect by individual models. The capability of climate models in reproducing the SST-precipitation relationship appears to be crucial in this respect.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911600E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911600E"><span>Role of the Indonesian Throughflow in controlling regional mean climate and rainfall variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>England, Matthew H.; Santoso, Agus; Phipps, Steven; Ummenhofer, Caroline</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The role of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) in controlling regional mean climate and rainfall is examined using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. Experiments employing both a closed and open ITF are equilibrated to steady state and then 200 years of natural climatic variability is assessed within each model run, with a particular focus on the Indian Ocean region. Opening of the ITF results in a mean Pacific-to-Indian throughflow of 21 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 sec-1), which advects warm west Pacific waters into the east Indian Ocean. This warm signature is propagated westward by the mean ocean flow, however it never reaches the west Indian Ocean, as an ocean-atmosphere feedback in the tropics generates a weakened trade wind field that is reminiscent of the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). This is in marked contrast to the Indian Ocean response to an open ITF when examined in ocean-only model experiments; which sees a strengthening of both the Indian Ocean South Equatorial Current and the Agulhas Current. The coupled feedback in contrast leads to cooler conditions over the west Indian Ocean, and an anomalous zonal atmospheric pressure gradient that enhances the advection of warm moist air toward south Asia and Australia. This leaves the African continent significantly drier, and much of Australia and southern Asia significantly wetter, in response to the opening of the ITF. Given the substantial interannual variability that the ITF exhibits in the present-day climate system, and the restriction of the ITF gateway in past climate eras, this could have important implications for understanding past and present regional rainfall patterns around the Indian Ocean and over neighbouring land-masses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMIN11A0026K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMIN11A0026K"><span>Using "CONNected objECT (CONNECT)" Algorithm to Explore Intense Global Water Vapor Transport to Investigate Impacts of Climate Variability and Change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kawzenuk, B.; Sellars, S. L.; Nguyen, P.; Ralph, F. M.; Sorooshian, S.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The CONNected objECT (CONNECT) algorithm is applied to Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) data from the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications - Version 2 reanalysis product for the period 1980 to 2016 to study water vapor transport globally. The algorithm generates life-cycle records as statistical objects for the time and space location of the evolving strong vapor transport events. Global statistics are presented and used to investigate how climate variability impacts the events' location and frequency. Results show distinct water vapor object frequency and seasonal peaks during NH and SH Winter. Moreover, a positive linear trend in the annual number of objects is reported, increasing by 3.58 objects year-over-year (with 95% confidence, +/- 1.39). In addition, we show five distinct regions where these events typically exist (southeastern United States, eastern China, South Pacific south of 25°S, eastern South America and off the southern tip of South Africa), and where they rarely exist (eastern South Pacific Ocean and central southern Atlantic Ocean between 5°N-25°S). In addition, the event frequency and geographical location are also shown to be related to the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific North American Pattern, and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active"><span>16</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_16 --> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33A1316P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33A1316P"><span>Fossil Coral Records of ENSO during the Last Glacial Period</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Partin, J. W.; Taylor, F. W.; Shen, C. C.; Edwards, R. L.; Quinn, T. M.; DiNezro, P.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Only a handful of paleoclimate records exist that can resolve interannual changes, and hence El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, during the last glacial period, a time of altered mean climate. The few existing data suggest reduced ENSO variability compared to the Holocene, possibly due to a weaker zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the tropical Pacific and/or a deeper thermocline in the eastern tropical Pacific. Our goal is to add crucial data to this extremely limited subset using sub-annually resolved fossil corals that grew during this time period to reconstruct ENSO. We seek to recover fossil corals from Vanuatu, SW Pacific (16°S, 167°E) with the objective of using coral δ18O to reconstruct changes in the ENSO during and near the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Modern δ18O coral records from Vanuatu show a high degree of skill in capturing ENSO variability, making it a suitable site for reconstructing ENSO variability. We have custom designed and are building a drill system that can rapidly core many 0-25 m holes resulting in much more meters of penetration than achieved by previous land-based reef drilling. As the new drill system is extremely portable and can be quickly relocated by workers without landing craft or vehicles, it is time and cost efficient. Because the proposed drilling sites have uplifted extremely fast, 7 mm/year, the LGM shoreline has been raised from 120-140 m depth to within a depth range of 10 below to 20 m above present sea level. This enables all the drilling to be within the time range of interest ( 15-25 ka). A last advantage is that the LGM corals either are still submersed in seawater or emerged only within the last 2000 years at the uplift rate of 7 mm/yr. This greatly reduces the chances of disruption of the original climate signal because sea water is less diagenetically damaging than meteoric water in the mixed, phreatic, or vadose zones. LGM coral records will enable us to compare the proxy variability to climate model simulations in order to elucidate the mechanisms driving the changes in ENSO. The proposed research activities will shed light on the sensitivity of ENSO to external forcings, a highly critical issue given that climate model projections used for future climate projection do not agree if ENSO will strengthen or weaken as the Earth warms.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA23B2238B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA23B2238B"><span>Quantifying the impact of Teleconnections on Hydrologic Regimes in Texas</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Climate change is being alleged to have led to the increased frequency of extreme flooding events and the resulting damages are severe, especially where the flood-plain population densities are higher. Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on improving real-time flood forecasting models. Recent studies show that, in the state of Texas, extreme regional floods are actually triggered by abruptly higher precipitation intensities. Such intensities are further driven by sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies, defined by certain patterns of teleconnections. In this study, climate variability is defined on the basis of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related teleconnections: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Hydrologic extremes will be modeled using probabilistic distributions. Leave-One-Out-Test (LOOT) will be employed to address the outliers in the extremes, and to eventually obtain the robust correlation coefficient. The variation in the effect of most correlated teleconnection with respect to hydrologic attributes will be investigated for the entire state. This study will attempt to identify potential teleconnection inputs for data-driven hydrologic models under varying climatic conditions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940016226&hterms=high+school&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dhigh%2Bschool','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19940016226&hterms=high+school&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dhigh%2Bschool"><span>Schools of the Pacific rainfall climate experiment</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Postawko, S. E.; Morrissey, M. L.; Taylor, G. J.; Mouginis-Mark, P.</p> <p>1993-01-01</p> <p>The SPaRCE program is a cooperative rainfall climate field project involving high school and college level students and teachers from various Pacific island and atoll nations. The goals of the SPaRCE program are: (1) to foster interest and increase understanding among Pacific-area students and teachers of climate and climate change; (2) to educate the students and teachers as to the importance of rainfall in the Pacific area to climate studies; (3) to provide the students and teachers an opportunity of making a major contribution to the global climate research effort by collecting and analyzing Pacific rainfall data; and (4) to incorporate collected rainfall observations into a comprehensive Pacific daily rainfall data base to be used for climate research purposes. Schools participating in SPaRCE have received standard raingauges with which to measure rainfall at their sites. Students learned to site and use their raingauges by viewing a video produced at the University of Oklahoma. Four more videos will be produced which will include information on Earth's atmosphere, global climate and climate change, regional climate and implications of climate change, and how to analyze and use the rainfall data they are collecting. The videos are accompanied by workbooks which summarize the main points of each video, and contain concrete learning activities to help the student better understand climate and climate change. Following each video, interactive sessions are held with the students using the PEACESAT (Pan-Pacific Education And Communication Experiments by Satellite) satellite radio communication system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP43A2057H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP43A2057H"><span>Middle Miocene climate cooling linked to intensification of eastern equatorial Pacific upwelling</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Holbourn, A. E.; Kuhnt, W.; Lyle, M. W.; Schneider, L. J.; Romero, O. E.; Andersen, N.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>During the middle Miocene, Earth's climate transitioned from a relatively warm phase (Miocene climatic optimum, ~17-15 Ma) into a colder mode with re-establishment of permanent ice sheets on Antarctica. Carbon sequestration and atmospheric CO2 drawdown through increased terrigenous and/or marine productivity have been proposed as the main drivers of this fundamental transition. However, comparatively little is known about the processes initially sustaining global warmth and about the chain of climate events that reversed this trend and promoted ice growth on Antarctica after ~15 Ma. We integrate high-resolution (1-3 kyr) benthic stable isotope data with XRF-scanner derived biogenic silica and carbonate accumulation estimates in an exceptionally well-preserved sedimentary archive to reconstruct variations in eastern equatorial Pacific upwelling and to investigate temporal linkages between high- and low-latitude climate change over the interval 16-13 Ma. Our records show that the climatic optimum (16.8-14.7 Ma) was characterized by high amplitude climate variations, marked by intense perturbations of the carbon cycle. Episodes of peak warmth at (southern hemisphere) insolation maxima coincided with transient shoaling of the carbonate compensation depth and enhanced carbonate dissolution in the deep ocean. A switch to obliquity-paced climate variability after 14.7 Ma concurred with a general improvement in carbonate preservation and the onset of stepwise global cooling, culminating with extensive ice growth over Antarctica at ~13.8 Ma (Mi3 event). We find that two massive increases in opal accumulation at ~14.0 and ~13.8 Ma occurred just before and during the final and most prominent cooling step, supporting the hypothesis that increased primary productivity due to enhancement of the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue contributed to CO2 drawdown and promoted global cooling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28931881','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28931881"><span>Contrasting subtropical PV intrusion frequency and their impact on tropospheric Ozone distribution over Pacific Ocean in El-Niño and La-Niña conditions.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Graf, Hans-F; Lan, Xiaoqiang; Gong, Hainan</p> <p>2017-09-20</p> <p>Upper tropospheric equatorial westerly ducts over the Pacific Ocean are the preferred location for Rossby wave breaking events during boreal winter and spring. These subtropical wave breaking events lead to the intrusion of high PV (potential vorticity) air along the extra-tropical tropopause and transport ozone rich dry stratospheric air into the tropics. The intrusion frequency has strong interannual variability due to ENSO (El-Niño/Southern Oscillation), with more events under La-Niña and less under El-Niño conditions. This may result from stronger equatorial westerly ducts and subtropical jets during La-Niña and weaker during El-Niño. It was previously suggested that the interannual variability of the tropospheric ozone distribution over the central-eastern Pacific Ocean is mainly driven by convective activity related to ENSO and that the barotropic nature of the subtropical intrusions restricts the tracers within the UT. However, our analysis shows that tropospheric ozone concentration and subtropical intrusions account ~65% of the co- variability (below 5 km) in the outer tropical (10-25°N) central Pacific Ocean, particularly during La-Niña conditions. Additionally, we find a two-fold increase and westward shift in the intrusion frequency over the Pacific Ocean, due to the climate regime shift in SST pattern during 1997/98.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911248Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911248Y"><span>Oceanic Channel of the IOD-ENSO teleconnection over the Indo-Pacific Ocean</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yuan, Dongliang; Wang, Jing; Zhao, Xia; Zhou, Hui; Xu, Tengfei; Xu, Peng</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>The lag correlations of observations and model simulated data that participate the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) are used to study the precursory teleconnection between the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Pacific ENSO one year later through the Indonesian seas. The results suggest that Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) play an important role in the IOD-ENSO teleconnection. Numerical simulations using a hierarchy of ocean models and climate coupled models have shown that the interannual sea level depressions in the southeastern Indian Ocean during IOD force enhanced ITF to transport warm water of the Pacific warm pool to the Indian Ocean, producing cold subsurface temperature anomalies, which propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific and induce significant coupled ocean-atmosphere evolution. The teleconnection is found to have decadal variability. Similar decadal variability has also been identified in the historical simulations of the CMIP5 models. The dynamics of the inter-basin teleconnection during the positive phases of the decadal variability are diagnosed to be the interannual variations of the ITF associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). During the negative phases, the thermocline in the eastern equatorial Pacific is anomalously deeper so that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the cold tongue are not sensitive to the thermocline depth changes. The IOD-ENSO teleconnection is found not affected significantly by the anthropogenic forcing.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JARS....8.3666F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JARS....8.3666F"><span>Analysis of vegetation dynamics and climatic variability impacts on greenness across Canada using remotely sensed data from 2000 to 2009</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fang, Xiuqin; Zhu, Qiuan; Chen, Huai; Ma, Zhihai; Wang, Weifeng; Song, Xinzhang; Zhao, Pengxiang; Peng, Changhui</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Using time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from 2000 to 2009, we assessed decadal vegetation dynamics across Canada and examined the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables (precipitation and temperature). The Palmer drought severity index and vapor pressure difference (VPD) were used to relate the vegetation changes to the climate, especially in cases of drought. Results indicated that MODIS NDVI measurements provided a dynamic picture of interannual variation in Canadian vegetation patterns. Greenness declined in 2000, 2002, and 2009 and increased in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Vegetation dynamics varied across regions during the period. Most forest land shows little change, while vegetation in the ecozone of Pacific Maritime, Prairies, and Taiga Shield shows more dynamics than in the others. Significant correlations were found between NDVI and the climatic variables. The variation of NDVI resulting from climatic variability was more highly correlated to temperature than to precipitation in most ecozones. Vegetation grows better with higher precipitation and temperature in almost all ecozones. However, vegetation grows worse under higher temperature in the Prairies ecozone. The annual changes in NDVI corresponded well with the change in VPD in most ecozones.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3885547','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3885547"><span>Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A.; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M.; Zhao, Jian-xin</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability. PMID:24416214</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24416214','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24416214"><span>Coral luminescence identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a primary driver of river runoff variability impacting the southern Great Barrier Reef.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M; Zhao, Jian-xin</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3285622','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3285622"><span>Evaluation of Multi-Scale Climate Effects on Annual Recruitment Levels of the Japanese Eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Tzeng, Wann-Nian; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Han, Yu-San; Hsu, Chih-Chieh; Chang, Chih-Wei; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hsieh, Chih-hao</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Long-term (1967–2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean–atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system. PMID:22383976</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22383976','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22383976"><span>Evaluation of multi-scale climate effects on annual recruitment levels of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Tzeng, Wann-Nian; Tseng, Yu-Heng; Han, Yu-San; Hsu, Chih-Chieh; Chang, Chih-Wei; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Hsieh, Chih-Hao</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Long-term (1967-2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean-atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/35452','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/35452"><span>Seed transfer zones for a native grass Festuca roemeri: genecological evidence</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Barbara L. Wilson; Dale C. Darris; Rob Fiegener; Matthew E. Horning; Keli Kuykendall</p> <p>2008-01-01</p> <p>A common-garden study of Festuca roemeri (Pavlick) E. B. Alexeev (Poaceae) revealed substantial genetic variation within and among 47 populations from throughout its range in the Pacific Northwest, USA, for growth, fitness, phenological, and morphological traits. Using climatic and physiographic variables, genetic patterns over the landscape were...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26634438','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26634438"><span>Dynamical excitation of the tropical Pacific Ocean and ENSO variability by Little Ice Age cooling.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Rustic, Gerald T; Koutavas, Athanasios; Marchitto, Thomas M; Linsley, Braddock K</p> <p>2015-12-18</p> <p>Tropical Pacific Ocean dynamics during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) are poorly characterized due to a lack of evidence from the eastern equatorial Pacific. We reconstructed sea surface temperature, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, and the tropical Pacific zonal gradient for the past millennium from Galápagos ocean sediments. We document a mid-millennium shift (MMS) in ocean-atmosphere circulation around 1500-1650 CE, from a state with dampened ENSO and strong zonal gradient to one with amplified ENSO and weak gradient. The MMS coincided with the deepest LIA cooling and was probably caused by a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. The peak of the MCA (900-1150 CE) was a warm period in the eastern Pacific, contradicting the paradigm of a persistent La Niña pattern. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4683514','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4683514"><span>ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other. PMID:26678931</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A11N0269L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A11N0269L"><span>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program at NOAA - Recent Program Advancements</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lucas, S. E.; Todd, J. F.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The Climate Variability & Predictability (CVP) Program supports research aimed at providing process-level understanding of the climate system through observation, modeling, analysis, and field studies. This vital knowledge is needed to improve climate models and predictions so that scientists can better anticipate the impacts of future climate variability and change. To achieve its mission, the CVP Program supports research carried out at NOAA and other federal laboratories, NOAA Cooperative Institutes, and academic institutions. The Program also coordinates its sponsored projects with major national and international scientific bodies including the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), the International and U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR/US CLIVAR) Program, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CVP program sits within NOAA's Climate Program Office (http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP). The CVP Program currently supports multiple projects in areas that are aimed at improved representation of physical processes in global models. Some of the topics that are currently funded include: i) Improved Understanding of Intraseasonal Tropical Variability - DYNAMO field campaign and post -field projects, and the new climate model improvement teams focused on MJO processes; ii) Climate Process Teams (CPTs, co-funded with NSF) with projects focused on Cloud macrophysical parameterization and its application to aerosol indirect effects, and Internal-Wave Driven Mixing in Global Ocean Models; iii) Improved Understanding of Tropical Pacific Processes, Biases, and Climatology; iv) Understanding Arctic Sea Ice Mechanism and Predictability;v) AMOC Mechanisms and Decadal Predictability Recent results from CVP-funded projects will be summarized. Additional information can be found at http://cpo.noaa.gov/CVP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1413093K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012EGUGA..1413093K"><span>A climate model study of an intense Asian Monsoon in a La Niña-like climate of MIS-13</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Karami, M. P.; Berger, A.; Herold, N.; Yin, Q. Z.</p> <p>2012-04-01</p> <p>Studying the paleo-monsoon during past interglacials is a valuable approach to improve our understanding of the monsoon system in present-day and future climates. We focus on Marine Isotopic stage 13 (MIS-13; ~0.5 Ma) which was a relatively cool interglacial, but with a paradoxically intense monsoonal precipitation over eastern and southern Asia. Our main goal is to understand the physics-based mechanism driving the intense monsoon, specifically the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), during MIS-13. We applied both an intermediate complexity model (LOVECLIM) as well as fully coupled general circulation models (HadCM3 and CCSM3) to simulate pre-industrial and MIS-13 climates. The boundary conditions for MIS-13 were chosen for 506 ka with Northern-Hemisphere (NH) summer at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 240 ppm. For pre-industrial, NH-winter occurring at perihelion and a CO2 concentration of 280 ppm were prescribed. Preliminary analysis of the model results shows different atmospheric and oceanic features in MIS-13 compared to the pre-industrial which could affect the EASM. The Northern Pacific Subtropical High (NPSH), which is an important factor in controlling the EASM, strengthened and extended to the northwest in MIS-13 partially due to cooling of the central Pacific Ocean. This in turn brought more moisture from the Central Pacific to the EASM-region and caused a northwestward shift and bending of the low-level jet along East Asia. The change in the low-level jet subsequently increased the meridional wind velocity at 850 mbar in the EASM-region providing more moisture from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. In addition, higher sea-surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during MIS-13 further increased the source of moisture for the EASM. The Asian low, which is another component of the EASM-system, also shifted eastward moving the rain band northward. Moreover, it was found that MIS-13 had a dominant La Niña condition in the tropical Pacific. La Niña-type climate is normally expected to favor increases in precipitation in the EASM through the NPSH as can be seen in MIS-13. Whether there was ENSO variability around the La Niña-like background climatic state of MIS-13 or not is under further investigation. The correlation between the sea-surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific and the EASM precipitation was found to increase in MIS-13 compared to the pre-industrial which is another factor explaining the intensified EASM in MIS13. Although our model results show high precipitation for MIS-13 qualitatively consistent with data, we are still interested in other factors that could increase the precipitation even further. *This work is supported by the European Research Council Advanced Grant EMIS (No 227348 of the Programme 'ideas')</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC21F0993D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC21F0993D"><span>Recent Responses of Western North American Forests and Hydroclimate to Pacific Storm Track Position and Intensity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the October to March cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may shift in the future due to climate change. Using historical climate, tree-ring, and remote sensing data, we assessed the sensitivity of western North American hydroclimate and ecosystems to the position and intensity of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. From 1980-2014, mean annual cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N to 53°N, with substantial interannual variability in both the position and intensity of the storm tracks. We examined relationships between storm tracks and two hydroclimatic variables: the cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and April snow water equivalent. We also assessed how historical storm track variability affected ecosystems using forest growth estimates from a large tree-ring network as well as land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from AVHRR and Landsat, respectively. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. These hydroclimatic impacts were largely driven by the latitudinal position of storm tracks during the "shoulder" seasons (i.e., autumn and early spring). Ecosystems of the western U.S. tended to be greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern U.S. were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. Assuming that these historical relationships continue to hold under future climate scenarios, our results suggest that projected long-term shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern U.S., where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5462496','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5462496"><span>Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wise, Erika K.; Dannenberg, Matthew P.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability. PMID:28630900</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28630900','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28630900"><span>Reconstructed storm tracks reveal three centuries of changing moisture delivery to North America.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Wise, Erika K; Dannenberg, Matthew P</p> <p>2017-06-01</p> <p>Moisture delivery to western North America is closely linked to variability in the westerly storm tracks of midlatitude cyclones, which are, in turn, modified by larger-scale features such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation system. Instrumental and modeling data suggest that extratropical storm tracks may be intensifying and shifting poleward due to anthropogenic climate change, but it is difficult to separate recent trends from natural variability because of the large amount of decadal and longer variation in storm tracks and their limited instrumental record. We reconstruct cool-season, midlatitude Pacific storm-track position and intensity from 1693 to 1995 CE using existing tree-ring chronologies along with a network of newly developed chronologies from the U.S. Pacific Northwest, where small variations in storm-track position can have a major influence on hydroclimate patterns. Our results show high interannual-to-multidecadal variability in storm-track position and intensity over the past 303 years, with spectral signatures characteristic of tropical and northern Pacific influences. Comparison with reconstructions of precipitation and tropical sea surface temperature confirms the relationship between shifting drought patterns in the Pacific Northwest and storm-track variability through time and demonstrates the long-term influence of El Niño. These results allow us to place recent storm-track changes in the context of decadal and multidecadal fluctuations across the long-term record, showing that recent changes in storm-track intensity likely represent a warming-related increase amplified by natural decadal variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23995690','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23995690"><span>Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping</p> <p>2013-09-19</p> <p>Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active"><span>17</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_17 --> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP51A1928S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP51A1928S"><span>Simulations of Western North American Hydroclimate during the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Simon, S. M.; Mann, M. E.; Steinman, B. A.; Feng, S.; Zhang, Y.; Miller, S. K.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Despite the immense impact that large, modern North American droughts, such as those of the 1930s and 1950s, have had on economic, social, aquacultural, and agricultural systems, they are smaller in duration and magnitude than the multidecadal megadroughts that affected North America, in particular the western United States, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, ~ 900-1300 AD) and the Little Age (LIA, ~1450-1850 AD). Although various proxy records have been used to reconstruct the timing of these MCA and LIA megadroughts in the western United States, there still exists great uncertainty in the magnitude and spatial coherence of such droughts in the Pacific Northwest region, especially on decadal to centennial timescales. This uncertainty motivates the following study to establish a causal link between the climate forcing that induced these megadroughts and the spatiotemporal response of regional North American hydroclimates to this forcing. This study seeks to establish a better understanding of the influence of tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs on North American drought during the MCA and LIA. We force NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model version 5.1.1 (CAM 5) with prescribed proxy-reconstructed tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SST anomalies from the MCA and LIA, in order to investigate the influence that these SST anomalies had on the spatiotemporal patterns of drought in North America. To isolate the effects of individual ocean basin SSTs on the North American climate system, the model experiments use a variety of SST permutations in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic basin as external forcing. In order to quantify the spatiotemporal response of the North American climate system to these SST forcing permutations, temperature and precipitation data derived from the MCA and LIA model experiments are compared to lake sediment isotope and tree ring-based hydroclimate reconstructions from the Pacific Northwest. The spatiotemporal temperature and precipitation patterns from the model experiments indicate that in the Pacific Northwest, the MCA and LIA were anomalously wet and dry periods, respectively, a finding that is largely supported by the lake sediment records. This pattern contrasts with the dry MCA/wet LIA pattern diagnosed in model experiments for the U.S Southwest and indicated by tree ring-based proxy data. Thus, the CAM 5 model experiments confirm the wet/dry dipole pattern suggested by proxy data for the western U.S. during the MCA and LIA and highlights the role that the natural variability of tropical Pacific and North Atlantic SSTs played in driving this spatiotemporal climate pattern and its related teleconnections.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A13E0330G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A13E0330G"><span>Disentangling the role of Natural Variability and Climate Change in the aggravation of Droughts in central Chile</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Garreaud, R. D.; Boisier, J. P.; Rondanelli, R. F.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Among other climate extreme events, droughts (annual rainfall deficit larger than 25%) have punctuated the hydro-climate history of central Chile (30-40°S) with profoundly negative effects on physical (e.g., water storage depletion), ecological (e.g., increase in forest fires) and human systems (e.g., major distress in rural communities). In this presentation we show that intense but short-lived (1 or 2 years long) droughts are associated with anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies over the subtropical south Pacific (Amudsen sea), reduced synoptic-scale variability in that area and weakening of the westerly winds impinging the west coast of South America. These large-scale anomalies often occurs in connection with the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña events). Of particular interest is an uninterrupted rainfall deficit since 2010 to date, referred to as the central Chile mega-drought (MD) in virtue of its unprecedented character in term of duration, spatial extent and coincidence with warm air temperatures. The protracted MD shares some of the climate features of the historical events but for the prevalence of near-neutral ENSO years with the exception of 2010 (La Niña) and 2015 (intense El Niño). Thus, we use a suite of fully-coupled and SST-forced climate simulations to disentangle natural and anthropogenic contributions to current mega drought as well as to shed light in the physical link between global climate change and rainfall deficit in central Chile drought. It turns out that anthropogenic climate change accounts for about a third of the drought as it forces SAM towards its positive polarity. The later enhances a dipole of geopotential height over the South Pacific that is conducive to dry conditions in central Chile.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatCo...712571W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatCo...712571W"><span>El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wood, S.; Baums, I. B.; Paris, C. B.; Ridgwell, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Hendy, E. J.</p> <p>2016-08-01</p> <p>More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997-1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO33C..08D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPO33C..08D"><span>Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>DU, Y.; Zhang, Y.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatSR...516050D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatSR...516050D"><span>Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4996977','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4996977"><span>El Niño and coral larval dispersal across the eastern Pacific marine barrier</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Wood, S.; Baums, I. B.; Paris, C. B.; Ridgwell, A.; Kessler, W. S.; Hendy, E. J.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>More than 5,000 km separates the frequently disturbed coral reefs of the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) from western sources of population replenishment. It has been hypothesized that El Niño events facilitate eastward dispersal across this East Pacific Barrier (EPB). Here we present a biophysical coral larval dispersal model driven by 14.5 years of high-resolution surface ocean current data including the extreme 1997–1998 El Niño. We find no eastward cross-EPB connections over this period, which implies that ETP coral populations decimated by the 1998 bleaching event can only have recovered from eastern Pacific sources, in congruence with genetic data. Instead, rare connections between eastern and central Pacific reefs are simulated in a westward direction. Significant complexity and variability in the surface flows transporting larvae mean that generalized upper-ocean circulation patterns are poor descriptors of inter-regional connectivity, complicating the assessment of how climate change will impact coral gene flow Pacific wide. PMID:27550393</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4629206','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4629206"><span>Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004–2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate. PMID:26522168</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26522168','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26522168"><span>Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan</p> <p>2015-11-02</p> <p>A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.9721N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRD..122.9721N"><span>Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Henderson, Naomi; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wang, Hui; Wehner, Michael F.; Zhao, Ming</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015WRR....51.1959V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015WRR....51.1959V"><span>Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Vano, Julie A.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation will result in fundamental changes in the seasonal distribution of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and will have serious implications for water resources management. To better understand local impacts of regional climate change, we conducted model experiments to determine hydrologic sensitivities of annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff to imposed annual and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface hydrology model applied at 1/16° latitude-longitude spatial resolution over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a scale sufficient to support analyses at the hydrologic unit code eight (HUC-8) basin level. These experiments resolve the spatial character of the sensitivity of future water supply to precipitation and temperature changes by identifying the seasons and locations where climate change will have the biggest impact on runoff. The PNW exhibited a diversity of responses, where transitional (intermediate elevation) watersheds experience the greatest seasonal shifts in runoff in response to cool season warming. We also developed a methodology that uses these hydrologic sensitivities as basin-specific transfer functions to estimate future changes in long-term mean monthly hydrographs directly from climate model output of precipitation and temperature. When principles of linearity and superposition apply, these transfer functions can provide feasible first-order estimates of the likely nature of future seasonal streamflow change without performing downscaling and detailed model simulations.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP53A2377A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP53A2377A"><span>Understanding Rates of Change: How have climate transitions during the Holocene driven the pace of vegetation change in California ecosystems?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Anderson, L.; Wahl, D.; Barron, J. A.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>A fundamental aspect of ecosystem response to global climate change is the rate at which systems can change, determined in large part by the timing and magnitude of changes in climate parameters. Reorganization in atmosphere/ocean dynamics of the North Pacific on millennial to centennial time scales has resulted in climate change in western North America. The seasonality of the position and intensity of the Aleutian Low and the North Pacific High, Pacific SSTs, and related high frequency variability (ENSO, PDO) all strongly influence temperature and precipitation regimes of western North America. This study assesses the rate of vegetation response to climate change in the western United States. Here we present preliminary reconstructions of rates of vegetation change in California from 11k cal. BP to the present. Research questions include: Do increased rates of ecosystem transformation correspond with times of marked reorganization in climate dynamics? What is the geographic distribution of rates of change, and how does that distribution vary through time? Rate of change is defined as the ratio of the difference in abundances of a fixed array of pollen taxa between adjacent samples within a pollen record over time. The measure of difference was determined using the VEGAN package in R and applying the Bray-Curtis measure. Analyses are based on publicly available data from published fossil pollen studies. Our initial results suggest broad coherence of increased change rates at around 3.5k and 6k cal. BP. Future work will focus on evaluating potential refinements of the filter applied to the pollen data and standardization of the sample intervals, as well as on expansion of the data sets analyzed to include the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest regions of North America in order to provide a more comprehensive analysis of past change rates in the western US.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdAtS..32..585C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AdAtS..32..585C"><span>Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cao, Jian; Wang, Bin; Xiang, Baoqiang; Li, Juan; Wu, Tianjie; Fu, Xiouhua; Wu, Liguang; Min, Jinzhong</p> <p>2015-05-01</p> <p>A coupled earth system model (ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1 (NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring-fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific (CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific (EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability, biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version (T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon-ENSO lead-lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC14A..08R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC14A..08R"><span>Bridging the Gap with the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rodenhuis, D.; Kangasniemi, B.; Murdock, T. Q.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>The difficulty of translating scientific results into useful information defines the abyss that is addressed by a new PCIC consortium of academics-government-industry at the University of Victoria. The scope of the consortium is research applications of climate variability and change, including extreme weather events, for climate impacts and adaptation in Pacific North America. During the past 3 years traditional tools of collaboration have been utilized--both with the science community and with stakeholders. Some success in networking with Provinces, the States, and with national institutions has been achieved. Limitations of governance/management, resources, and cooperation have been identified. Input and statements of need from the climate stakeholders in government and industry has been achieved, but only in specific areas - water/power generation, forestry, communities. Three examples will be given of successful engagement of stakeholders. These examples demonstrate how difficult it is to summarize effectiveness, relevance, and capacity. This experience, and early decisions on scope, focus and priorities have taken us this far, but some exceptional challenges have arisen due to the stakeholder demand for new (geophysical) design conditions for the 21st century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080047282','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20080047282"><span>The Spatiotemporal Structure of 20th Century Climate Variations in Observations and Reanalyses. Part 1; Long-term Trend</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Chen, Junye; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Carlson, Barbara e.; Bosilovich, Michael G.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>The dominant interannual El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) and the short length of climate observation records make it difficult to study long-term climate variations in the spatiotemporal domain. Based on the fact that the ENS0 signal spreads to remote regions and induces delayed climate variation through atmospheric teleconnections, we develop an ENSO-removal method through which the ENS0 signal can be approximately removed at the grid box level from the spatiotemporal field of a climate parameter. After this signal is removed, long-term climate variations, namely, the global warming trend (GW) and the Pacific pan-decadal variability (PDV), are isolated at middle and low latitudes in the climate parameter fields from observed and reanalyses datasets. Except for known GW characteristics, the warming that occurs in the Pacific basin (approximately 0.4K in the 2oth century) is much weaker than in surrounding regions and the other two ocean basins (approximately 0.8K). The modest warming in the Pacific basin is likely due to its dynamic nature on the interannual and decadal time scales and/or the leakage of upper ocean water through the Indonesian Throughflow. Based on NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses, a comprehensive atmospheric structure associated with GW is given. Significant discrepancies exist between the two datasets, especially in the tightly coupled dynamic and water vapor fields. The dynamic field based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, which shows a change in the Walker Circulation, is consistent with the GW change in the surface temperature field. However, intensification in the Hadley Circulation is associated with GW trend in the ERA-40 reanalysis.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG51B..03R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMNG51B..03R"><span>Characterizing Transitions Between Decadal States of the Tropical Pacific using State Space Reconstruction</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ramesh, N.; Cane, M. A.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The complex coupled ocean-atmosphere system of the Tropical Pacific generates variability on timescales from intraseasonal to multidecadal. Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) is among the key drivers of global climate, with effects on hydroclimate on several continents, marine ecosystems, and the rate of global mean surface temperature rise under anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Predicting phase shifts in the PDV would therefore be highly useful. However, the small number of PDV phase shifts that have occurred in the observational record pose a substantial challenge to developing an understanding of the mechanisms that underlie decadal variability. In this study, we use a 100,000-year unforced simulation from an intermediate-complexity model of the Tropical Pacific region that has been shown to produce PDV comparable to that in the real world. We apply the Simplex Projection method to the NINO3 index from this model to reconstruct a shadow manifold that preserves the topology of the true attractor of this system. We find that the high- and low-variance phases of PDV emerge as a pair of regimes in a 3-dimensional state space, and that the transitions between decadal states lie in a highly predictable region of the attractor. We then use a random forest algorithm to develop a physical interpretation of the processes associated with these highly-predictable transitions. We find that transitions to low-variance states are most likely to occur approximately 2.5 years after an El Nino event, and that ocean-atmosphere variables in the southeastern Tropical Pacific play a crucial role in driving these transitions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA613405','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA613405"><span>Tropical Cyclone Footprint in the Ocean Mixed Layer Observed by Argo in the Northwest Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>2014-10-25</p> <p>668. Hu, A., and G. A. Meehl (2009), Effect of the Atlantic hurricanes on the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and heat transport, Geo...atmospheric circulation [Hart et al., 2007]. Several studies, based on observations and modeling, suggest that TC-induced energy input and mixing may play...an important role in climate variability through regulating the oceanic general circulation and its variability [e.g., Emanuel, 2001; Sriver and Huber</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ARMS....9..125M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ARMS....9..125M"><span>Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McKinley, Galen A.; Fay, Amanda R.; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Pilcher, Darren J.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1212924B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1212924B"><span>Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred</p> <p>2010-05-01</p> <p>Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations (ENSO) events in the Pacific Ocean, if such teleconnections exist, one would have would have a powerful tool at hand to forecast extreme seasonal climate pattern across Thailand over a limited time period. Eventually, such a predictive tool would help to better manage the availability and adequate supply of surface water resources to the various water users in this country. In the present study the spatial and temporal relationships between the global climate circulation system and the regional weather in Thailand are assessed by various techniques of stochastic time series analysis. More specifically, the time series of the sea surface temperature (SST) and various ocean indices of the Pacific and the Indian Oceans, as well as the time series of 121 meteorological stations from 5 regions across Thailand which include humidity, evaporation, temperature and rainfall during 1950-2007 are examined using autocorrelation, ARIMA, Wavelet Transform methods. Possible teleconnections between the behaviour of the ocean states and the climate variations at meteorological stations in eastern Thailand which frequently suffers from water shortage problems are analyzed using regression, cross-correlation and the Wavelet cross-correlation method. In addition to the time series of the observed ocean and meteorological variables, 1961-2000 CGCM3 predictors of the macro-scale regional climate variations for this study area are analyzed by the methods above and correlated with the ocean indices as well. Rainfall and temperatures at selected stations are forecasted up to year 2007 using the teleconnection- relationships found by multiple linear regression with the CGCM3 predictors. In addition, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of these climate variable are set up that are eventually extended to include the ocean indices as external regressors. The results of these various statistical techniques show that the El-Niño 1.2 SST anomaly indice of the Pacific Ocean, which refers to the most eastern section of the Pacific, correlates the strongest with the Thai local climate. Through cross-correlation, the most sensitive parameters to the ocean indices are the minimum temperature at stations in the northern and northeastern, inland regions of Thailand and the number of rainy days in the eastern, central and southern, coastal regions. In the southern region the amount of rainfall at the coast of Gulf of Thailand varies positively with El-Niño, but negatively for stations along the Andaman Sea coast in the west of the isthmus, with maximal correlation lag.-times of 4 months. Surprisingly the corresponding connections of the local climate variables with the Indian Ocean indices are less well established, with an optimal lag-time of only 3 months. Using the results of the teleconnection regression relationships, the forecast of the local climate variables could be improved significantly, as indicated by the Nash-Sutcliffe-coefficient of the prediction model's which increased from originally 0.30, 0.72 and 0.26 to 0.51, 0.82 and 0.46 for the rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, respectively. The results of our analysis indicate the possibility of a better forecast of extreme seasonal climate variations across some regions of Thailand over a limited time period by using short-term expected variations of the Pacific and Indian ocean indices.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA348965','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA348965"><span>Interannual Variability of the Atlantic Water in the Arctic Basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a></p> <p></p> <p>1996-01-01</p> <p>3778-3784, 1987. 4. Anderson L.G., Bjork G., Holby 0., Jones E.P., Kattner G., Kolterman K.P., Liljebad B ., Lindegren R., Rudels B ., Swift J. Water...Res., part A, 36, pp. 475 - 482 , 1989. 6. Antonov J. Recent climatic changes of the vertical thermal structure of the North Atlantic Ocean and the...North Pacific Ocean. - J. of Climate, v.6, pp.1928-1942, 1993. 7. Blinov N.I. and Popkov S.N. About the heat exchange of Atlantic Waters in the Arctic</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1714427E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1714427E"><span>Decadal slowdown in global air temperature rise triggered by variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>England, Matthew H.</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Various explanations have been proposed for the recent slowdown in global surface air temperature (SAT) rise, either involving enhanced ocean heat uptake or reduced radiation reaching Earth's surface. Among the mechanisms postulated involving enhanced ocean heat uptake, past work has argued for both a Pacific and Atlantic origin, with additional contributions from the Southern Ocean. Here we examine the mechanisms driving 'hiatus' periods originating out of the Atlantic Ocean. We show that while Atlantic-driven hiatuses are entirely plausible and consistent with known climate feedbacks associated with variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the present climate state is configured to enhance global-average SAT, not reduce it. We show that Atlantic hiatuses are instead characterised by anomalously cool fresh oceanic conditions in the North Atlantic, with the atmosphere advecting the cool temperature signature zonally. Compared to the 1980s and 1990s, however, the mean climate since 2001 has been characterised by a warm saline North Atlantic, suggesting the AMOC cannot be implicated as a direct driver of the current hiatus. We further discuss the impacts of a warm tropical Atlantic on the unprecedented trade wind acceleration in the Pacific Ocean, and propose that this is the main way that the Atlantic has contributed to the present "false pause" in global warming.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active"><span>18</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_18 --> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A42E..08P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A42E..08P"><span>Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29396527','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29396527"><span>Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Oettli, Pascal; Behera, Swadhin K; Yamagata, Toshio</p> <p>2018-02-02</p> <p>The influence of local conditions and remote climate modes on the interannual variability of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) total yields in Malaysia and two major regions (Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah/Sarawak) is explored. On a country scale, the state of sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the previous boreal winter is found to influence the regional climate. When El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, rainfall in Malaysia reduces but air temperature increases, generating a high level of water stress for palm trees. As a result, the yearly production of FFB becomes lower than that of a normal year since the water stress during the boreal spring has an important impact on the total annual yields of FFB. Conversely, La Niña sets favorable conditions for palm trees to produce more FFB by reducing chances of water stress risk. The region of the Leeuwin current also seems to play a secondary role through the Ningaloo Niño/ Niña in the interannual variability of FFB yields. Based on these findings, a linear model is constructed and its ability to reproduce the interannual signal is assessed. This model has shown some skills in predicting the total FFB yield.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhDT.......212B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007PhDT.......212B"><span>Characteristics of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and East Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barrett, Bradford Scott</p> <p></p> <p>In this dissertation, I present a series of investigations to expand our understanding of TCs in the East Pacific and North Atlantic basins. First, I developed and applied a climatological tool that quickly and succinctly displays the spread of historical TC tracks for any point in the North Atlantic basin. This tool is useful in all parts of a basin because it is derived from prior storm motion trajectories and summarily captures the historical synoptic and mesoscale steering patterns. It displays the strength of the climatological signal and allow for rapid qualitative comparison between historical TC tracks and NWP models. Second, I have used a robust statistical technique to quantify the relationships between fifteen different metrics of TC activity in nine ocean basins and twelve climate indices of the leading modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. In a thorough, encyclopedic manner, over 12,000 Spearman rank correlation coefficients were calculated and examined to identify relationships between TCs and their environment. This investigation was not limited to the East Pacific or North Atlantic, and new climatic associations were found between seasonal levels of TC activity and the major climate indices across the nine basins. This information is critical to forecasters, economists, actuaries, energy traders, and societal planners who apply knowledge of levels of TC activity on intraseasonal to interdecadal timescales. The statistics are also valuable to climatologists seeking to understand how regional TC frequency will change as the global climate warms. Third, I have examined the leading intraseasonal mode of atmospheric and oceanic variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and discovered statistically significant relationships with the frequency of TC genesis, intensification, and landfall over the nine basins. Like the significance of the longer-period oscillations to the frequency of TC activity on intraseasonal and longer timescales, these results are highly relevant to the problem of short-term (one- to two-week) predictability of TC activity. These three investigations demonstrate the utility of historical datasets across a wide range of applications, from short-term forecasting to climate studies. In this way, the results highlighted in this dissertation represent a significant and positive contribution to meteorology. Collectively, they reveal multiple characteristics of TCs in the East Pacific and North Atlantic and provide greater understanding of the complex interactions between TCs and their surrounding larger-scale environment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/48829','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/48829"><span>Comparing large-scale hydrological model predictions with observed streamflow in the Pacific Northwest: effects of climate and groundwater</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Mohammad Safeeq; Guillaume S. Mauger; Gordon E. Grant; Ivan Arismendi; Alan F. Hamlet; Se-Yeun Lee</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>Assessing uncertainties in hydrologic models can improve accuracy in predicting future streamflow. Here, simulated streamflows using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model at coarse (1/16°) and fine (1/120°) spatial resolutions were evaluated against observed streamflows from 217 watersheds. In...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018APJAS..54..103Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018APJAS..54..103Y"><span>Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Sinil; Oh, Jaiho</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194506','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194506"><span>Puffins reveal contrasting relationships between forage fish and ocean climate in the North Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Sydeman, William J.; Piatt, John F.; Thompson, Sarah Ann; Garcia-Reyes, Marisol; Hatch, Scott A.; Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Slater, Leslie; Williams, Jeffrey C.; Rojek, Nora A.; Zador, Stephani G.; Renner, Heather M.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Long-term studies of predator food habits (i.e., ‘predator-based sampling’) are useful for identifying patterns of spatial and temporal variability of forage nekton in marine ecosystems. We investigated temporal changes in forage fish availability and relationships to ocean climate by analyzing diet composition of three puffin species (horned puffin Fratercula corniculata, tufted puffin Fratercula cirrhata, and rhinoceros auklet Cerorhinca monocerata) from five sites in the North Pacific from 1978–2012. Dominant forage species included squids and hexagrammids in the western Aleutians, gadids and Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes personatus) in the eastern Aleutians and western Gulf of Alaska (GoA), and sand lance and capelin (Mallotus villosus) in the northern and eastern GoA. Interannual fluctuations in forage availability dominated variability in the western Aleutians, whereas lower-frequency shifts in forage fish availability dominated elsewhere. We produced regional multivariate indicators of sand lance, capelin, and age-0 gadid availability by combining data across species and sites using Principal Component Analysis, and related these indices to environmental factors including sea level pressure (SPL), winds, and sea surface temperature (SST). There was coherence in the availability of sand lance and capelin across the study area. Sand lance availability increased linearly with environmental conditions leading to warmer ocean temperatures, whereas capelin availability increased in a non-linear manner when environmental changes led to lower ocean temperatures. Long-term studies of puffin diet composition appear to be a promising tool for understanding the availability of these difficult-to-survey forage nekton in remote regions of the North Pacific.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24194856','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24194856"><span>Long-term fluctuations in circalunar Beach aggregations of the box jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with links to environmental variability.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Chiaverano, Luciano M; Holland, Brenden S; Crow, Gerald L; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998- Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998-2001; 2006-2011) and decrease (2001-2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3806728','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3806728"><span>Long-Term Fluctuations in Circalunar Beach Aggregations of the Box Jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with Links to Environmental Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Chiaverano, Luciano M.; Holland, Brenden S.; Crow, Gerald L.; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998– Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998–2001; 2006–2011) and decrease (2001–2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach. PMID:24194856</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP54A..02E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP54A..02E"><span>Testing the Reconstruction Potential for North Pacific Circulation Anomalies inside the TraCE-21ka Paleoclimate Simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Elison Timm, O.; Flamholtz, W. M.; Li, S.; Massa, C.; Beilman, D. W.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The motivation for this study was sparked by the idea that paleoclimate temperature and precipitation proxies provide sufficient information to make inferences about extratropical atmospheric circulation changes over the North Pacific during the Holocene. Typical targets for the circulation reconstruction problem include the strength and position of the Aleutian Low and the storm tracks. The reconstruction problem was investigated under idealized conditions using model simulation results from the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/TraCE/), which covers the Last Glacial Maximum to present. It is demonstrated that modes of variability found on interannual to multidecadal timescales during the preindustrial era provide inadequate pattern for reconstructing long-term mean changes during the past 22,000 years. Our circulation reconstruction target was the geopotential height field at 500hPa (Z500) over the North Pacific Ocean during winter. We applied a field reconstruction method using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). The MCA was applied to Z500 and surface temperatures as predictor information. The MCA was given model data containing interannual to multidecadal variability from the pre-industrial climate (1000BP-900BP). We worked with ten leading MCA modes in the reconstruction, which can reproduce about 90% of the covariability during the preindustrial period. Within the model simulation, we validated the field reconstructions against the model's circulation states over the last 22,000 years. Spatial skill scores show that the reconstruction skill drops significantly prior to the late Holocene. Reasons for the loss of reconstruction skill are due to the fact that externally forced climate changes do not resemble the internal modes of variability and that covariance between circulation and temperatures on interannual-multidecadal time scales changes with the background climate state. However, the reconstruction can be improved by including data from the early Holocene and the LGM era in the MCA. Based on these results, we advocate that paleoclimate model simulation results should be used define a set of first-guess pattern for the reconstruction of circulation anomalies from sparse and noisy proxy data.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.3307S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014GeoRL..41.3307S"><span>North American west coast summer low cloudiness: Broadscale variability associated with sea surface temperature</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Schwartz, Rachel E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Cayan, Daniel R.</p> <p>2014-05-01</p> <p>Six decades of observations at 20 coastal airports, from Alaska to southern California, reveal coherent interannual to interdecadal variation of coastal low cloudiness (CLC) from summer to summer over this broad region. The leading mode of CLC variability represents coherent variation, accounting for nearly 40% of the total CLC variance spanning 1950-2012. This leading mode and the majority of individual airports exhibit decreased low cloudiness from the earlier to the later part of the record. Exploring climatic controls on CLC, we identify North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, largely in the form of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as well correlated with, and evidently helping to organize, the coherent patterns of summer coastal cloud variability. Links from the PDO to summer CLC appear a few months in advance of the summer. These associations hold up consistently in interannual and interdecadal frequencies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4310891M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GeoRL..4310891M"><span>ENSO controls interannual fire activity in southeast Australia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mariani, M.; Fletcher, M.-S.; Holz, A.; Nyman, P.</p> <p>2016-10-01</p> <p>El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode controlling the variability in the ocean-atmosphere system in the South Pacific. While the ENSO influence on rainfall regimes in the South Pacific is well documented, its role in driving spatiotemporal trends in fire activity in this region has not been rigorously investigated. This is particularly the case for the highly flammable and densely populated southeast Australian sector, where ENSO is a major control over climatic variability. Here we conduct the first region-wide analysis of how ENSO controls fire activity in southeast Australia. We identify a significant relationship between ENSO and both fire frequency and area burnt. Critically, wavelet analyses reveal that despite substantial temporal variability in the ENSO system, ENSO exerts a persistent and significant influence on southeast Australian fire activity. Our analysis has direct application for developing robust predictive capacity for the increasingly important efforts at fire management.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A41K..03M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A41K..03M"><span>West Pacific Forcing of Atmospheric River Events in the North Pacific and the End of California's Recent Drought</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mitchell, J.; Ding, Q.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The prolonged drought in California has by now largely subsided due to the large number of land-falling atmospheric rivers in the 2016-2017 winter season. Here we explore intraseasonal, interannual and decadal variabilities in winter AR activity along the California coast, especially in Southern California, with a special focus on the leading modes of covariance between tropical SSTs and the 200-hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere and an understanding of how the tropical related teleconnections modulate the AR activity in the North Pacific. This new approach explores a path towards improved intra-seasonal to seasonal predictions of climate variability in Southern California and may help explain how the most recent winter, which is not the anomalously strong el Niño as that in the last winter, brought California out of drought. Finally, we will suggest a way forward to better understand the causes of the recent drought over Southern California and how we may improve projections of its future change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7945D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..44.7945D"><span>The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006DSRII..53..270B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006DSRII..53..270B"><span>Characterising meso-marine ecosystems of the North Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Batten, Sonia D.; David Hyrenbach, K.; Sydeman, William J.; Morgan, Ken H.; Henry, Michael F.; Yen, Peggy P. Y.; Welch, David W.</p> <p>2006-02-01</p> <p>To delineate mesoscale variability in marine ecosystems of the subarctic North Pacific and identify "hotspots" of biological activity, we conducted contemporaneous surveys of plankton and avifaunal communites in 2000-2003. Plankton samples were collected with a continuous plankton recorder (CPR) towed by a commercial vessel while a trained observer recorded marine bird distributions using strip-transect techniques. Near- and sub-surface physical oceanographic properties and productivity patterns were measured using a temperature data logger and satellite-derived chlorophyll a concentrations. We identified 10 distinct biological communities across the North Pacific, which we refer to as 'meso-marine ecosystems' (MME). We examined the characteristics of MME over multiple years to assess temporal persistence. MME were associated with different bathymetric domains and current systems. MME differed in the overall abundance and species composition of their fauna and, therefore, almost certainly in productivity. Regular monitoring of the spatial and temporal variability of MME will enhance our ability to detect and understand coupled climate-ecosystem responses, and, in turn, help guide ecosystem-based fisheries and wildlife management.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5639705','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5639705"><span>On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Reiter, E.R.</p> <p>1979-09-01</p> <p>The energies involved in the general circulation of the atmosphere, especially the zonal available potential energy, show considerable interannual variability, suggesting the presence of various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean-atmosphere system. Sea-surface temperature (SST) variations appear to have some effect on the hydrological cycle. The possible existence of feedback mechanisms between ocean and atmosphere seem to be evident in some of the data from the North Pacific and North Atlantic. One of these proposed mechanisms involves the variation in the convergence between the North and South Pacific trade-wind systems and is strongly reflected in rainfall variability within the drymore » region of the equatorial Pacific. Similar variations appear in low-latitude SST anomalies. The convergence between the two trade-wind systems in the Atlantic region also undergoes marked interannual variations. This quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in trade-wind convergence over the Atlantic appears to be tied to the global QBO of equatorial stratospheric winds and to regional rainfall regimes in the dry region of northeastern Brazil. A variability pattern of SST's with a QBO has been detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's are pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. It is also suggested that interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031051','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031051"><span>Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Gurdak, J.J.; Hanson, R.T.; McMahon, P.B.; Bruce, B.W.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.D.; Reedy, R.C.</p> <p>2007-01-01</p> <p>Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3-23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15-50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 yr) and the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer. ?? Soil Science Society of America.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017BGeo...14.4355F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017BGeo...14.4355F"><span>The influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fer, Istem; Tietjen, Britta; Jeltsch, Florian; Wolff, Christian</p> <p>2017-09-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155249','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70155249"><span>Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Blade, Ileana; Liebmann, Brant; Roberts, Jason B.; Robertson, Franklin R.</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192757','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192757"><span>A physical model for extreme drought over southwest Asia: Chapter 17</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Chris; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forrest</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The socioeconomic difficulties of southwest Asia, defined as the area bound by the domain 25°N–40°N and 40°E–70°E, are exacerbated by extreme precipitation deficits during the November–April rainy season. The precipitation deficits during many southwest Asia droughts have been examined in terms of the forcing by climate variability originating over the Pacific Ocean as a result of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and the long-term warming of Pacific (LT) sea surface temperatures (SST). Here we examine how the most extreme November–April southwest Asia droughts relate to global SSTs and the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and analyze the specific atmospheric forcing mechanisms responsible for changes in regional southwest Asian precipitation. The driest November–April seasons during 1948–2012 over southwest Asia are forced by subsidence and reductions of moisture fluxes as a result of the interaction of the mean flow with anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere occurs simultaneously with cool central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies associated with La Niña and the negative phase of PDV and a warm west Pacific Ocean caused in part by the long-term warming of the west Pacific Ocean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP33C..05L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP33C..05L"><span>Early to middle Miocene climate evolution: benthic oxygen and carbon isotope records from Walvis Ridge Site 1264.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lourens, L. J.; Beddow, H.; Liebrand, D.; Schrader, C.; Hilgen, F. J.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Across the early to middle Miocene, high-resolution records from the Pacific Ocean indicate a dynamic climate system, encompassing a 2 Myr global warming event from 17 Ma to 14.7 Ma, followed by a major Cenozoic cooling step at 14.2 Ma -13.8 Ma. Currently, no high-resolution benthic record from the Atlantic Ocean exists covering both events, limiting global coverage of this intriguing period in Cenozoic climate evolution. Here, we present the first early to middle Miocene high-resolution from the Atlantic basin. These records, from Site 1264 on the Walvis Ridge, span a 5.5 Myr long interval (13.24-18.90 ma) in high temporal resolution ( 4 kyr) and are tuned to eccentricity. The d18O record shows a sudden (high-latitude) warming/deglaciation on Antarctica at 17.1 Ma, a rapid cooling/glaciation of Antarctica at 13.8 Ma, and high-amplitude ( 1‰) variability on astronomical time-scales throughout this interval. Together with other records from this time interval located in the Pacific, which show similar features, the data strongly suggests a highly dynamic global climate system. We find cooling steps in d18O at 14.7, 14.2 and 13.8 Ma, suggesting concurrent cooling in the Pacific and Atlantic deep waters during the MMCT. The benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records reveal that the dominant astronomical frequencies present at ODP Site 1264 during the early to middle Miocene interval are the 405 kyr and 110 kyr eccentricity periodicities. This is a contrast to other early to middle Miocene records from drill-sites in the Pacific and South China Sea, which show a strong expression of obliquity in particular between 14.2 and 14.7 Ma.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active"><span>19</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_19 --> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1291C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1291C"><span>Changes on the coastline of buenaventura bay (colombian pacific) and its relationship with the climatic conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo; Ricaurte-Villota, Constanza; Andres Ordoñez, Silvio</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Some authors point out that the variability of a coastal system is the response of physical factors (climate, waves, currents, wind, etc.) or combination of some of them, for example long-term variations in the relationship between climate and supply of sedimentary material. For Colombian Pacific coast it has been said that the regimen of meso-tidal is one of the agents that contribute to changes in the morphology of the littoral zone. Between 2012-2015 was conducted a research in the mouth of Buenaventura Bay (Colombia Pacific coast), using two stations: Soldado point (southern point of the bay) and Bazan point (the northern point of the bay), for those stations the digital elevation model (DEM) was performed using a DGPS with technology GNSS the recent evolution of the coastline and changes in volume of sand from beaches for two scalar approaches were determined: annual and intra-annual. The use of ArcGIS 3D Analyst in the DEMs allowed to calculate the cubic area between the raised surfaces each month. Changes in the coastline were made using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) an ARCGIS extension. We used zonal and meridional components of the wind data near the coast from WindSat, rainfall and sea level anomaly data from the database AVISO (Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic), and sea level pressure (SLP) from NCEP/NCAR (National Center for Environmental Prediction/ National Center for Atmospheric Research), in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Finally, climatic variables were correlated with the rates of coastal erosion and changes in sand volume of the beaches, because wind and precipitation are some of the factors in sediment transport. The study showed erosion rates with negative values in 2014 and 2015 that represent loss of land, the intra-annual variability in September and October were the highest loss of land, this coincides with the values of the highest tides of the year. The results suggest that in the last 5 years have risen tides (about 50 cm in spring tide), accompanied by strong winds, which has caused lost land in some areas because overwash and of flooding processes. KEY WORDS: Coastal erosion, coastal processes, climate, tides</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157198','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70157198"><span>The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP31A1835W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMPP31A1835W"><span>An 8700 Year Record of Holocene Climate Variability from the Yucatan Peninsula</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wahl, D.; Byrne, R.; Anderson, L.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Our understanding of Holocene climate change in the Maya lowlands of Central America has improved significantly during the last several decades thanks to the development of proxy climate records from lake cores and speleothems. One important finding is that longer-term climate changes (i.e., millennial scale) were driven primarily by precessional forcing; less clear, however, are the causes of abrupt shifts and higher frequency (centennial to decadal) change recognized in many Holocene climate reconstructions. The mechanisms driving climate change on these time scales have been difficult to identify in the region, in part because the Yucatan peninsula is influenced by climatic conditions linked to both the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Additional complications arise from the development of dense human populations following the initial introduction of agriculture ~5000 cal yr BP, which had significant impact on the environment as a whole. Here we present the results of analyses (stable isotope, pollen, magnetic susceptibility, and physical properties) of a 7.25 m sediment core from Lago Puerto Arturo, a closed basin lake in the northern Peten, Guatemala. An age-depth model, based on 6 AMS radiocarbon determinations and created using CLAM, indicates the record extends to 8700 cal yr BP. Proxy data suggest that, similar to other low latitude sites, millennial scale climate at Lago Puerto Arturo was driven by changes in insolation. Higher frequency variability is associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dynamics, reflecting latitudinal shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in both the tropical North Atlantic and North Pacific. Solar forcing may also play a role in short-term climate change. The pollen and isotope records show that the entire period of prehispanic settlement and agricultural activity, i.e. ~5000-1000 cal yr B.P., was characterized by relatively dry conditions compared to before or after.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43I0381P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A43I0381P"><span>The Teleconnection Between Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Patricola, C. M.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) predictability, in both local and remote ocean basins. Unusually warm eastern tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) during El Niño tends not only to enhance local TC activity in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) but also to suppress Atlantic TCs via well-known teleconnections. Here, we demonstrate that Atlantic SST variability likewise exerts a significant influence on remote TC activity in the eastern Pacific basin using observations and 27 km resolution tropical channel model simulations. Observed and simulated accumulated cyclone energy in the ENP is substantially reduced during the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), which is characterized by warm and cool SST anomalies in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic respectively, and vice versa during the cool AMM phase. We find that the observed anti-correlation in seasonal TC activity between the Atlantic and ENP basins is driven by interannual climate variability in both the tropical Pacific (ENSO) and Atlantic (AMM). The physical mechanisms that drive the teleconnection between Atlantic SST and ENP TC activity will also be presented. This work provides information that can be used to improve seasonal forecasts and future projections of ENP tropical cyclone activity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP22A..08S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP22A..08S"><span>Indices and Dynamics of Global Hydroclimate Over the Past Millennium from Data Assimilation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Steiger, N. J.; Smerdon, J. E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) are at the forefront of model-data syntheses in that such reconstructions optimally fuse proxy data with climate models. DA-based paleoclimate reconstructions have the benefit of being physically-consistent across the reconstructed climate variables and are capable of providing dynamical information about past climate phenomena. Here we use a new implementation of DA, that includes updated proxy system models and climate model bias correction procedures, to reconstruct global hydroclimate on seasonal and annual timescales over the last millennium. This new global hydroclimate product includes reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and global surface temperature along with dynamical variables including the Nino 3.4 index, the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone, and an index of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we present a validation of the reconstruction product and also elucidate the causes of severe drought in North America and in equatorial Africa. Specifically, we explore the connection between droughts in North America and modes of ocean variability in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We also link drought over equatorial Africa to shifts of the intertropical convergence zone and modes of ocean variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1323M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1323M"><span>Reconstructing Eastern Tropical Pacific productivity across Marine Isotope Stage 3 using foraminifera faunal counts</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>McCourty, M.; Schmidt, M. W.; Glaubke, R.; Hertzberg, J. E.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T. S.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is one of Earth's largest sources of interannual climate variability that has many global environmental impacts. Furthermore, the mean state of the tropical Pacific has the potential to change in the near future due to anthropogenic warming of the planet. In order to provide an analogue for future climate states, there is a critical need to understand how the tropical Pacific evolved across abrupt warming events in Earth's recent past. While most studies have focused on the evolution of ENSO across Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1 and 2, the dynamics of the tropical Pacific across the abrupt climate events of MIS 3 are still highly contentious. To develop a record of past changes in upwelling intensity in the EEP, a parameter critically linked to the tropical Pacific mean state, we quantify the faunal abundances of 6 planktonic foraminifera species from piston core MV1014-02-17JC (00° 10.83'S, 85° 52.00'W; 2846 m depth) on the Carnegie Ridge from 35 - 59 kyr. The relative abundance of Globigerina bulloides, a species associated with upwelling conditions, and 5 other planktonic foraminifera suggest an increase in water column productivity during Heinrich Event 4 and across several Dansgaard-Oeschger stadial intervals. Initial results suggest that stadials in the North Atlantic are associated with more permanent La Niña-like conditions in the EEP. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that depth intervals in our core between 43.7 - 55.7 kyr were impacted by intense dissolution due to changes in bottom water chemistry, impacting the fidelity of our faunal count records across this interval. Future work includes extending our faunal record back to 100 kyr to include Heinrich Events 6 - 8.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23558172','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23558172"><span>Annually resolved ice core records of tropical climate variability over the past ~1800 years.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Thompson, L G; Mosley-Thompson, E; Davis, M E; Zagorodnov, V S; Howat, I M; Mikhalenko, V N; Lin, P-N</p> <p>2013-05-24</p> <p>Ice cores from low latitudes can provide a wealth of unique information about past climate in the tropics, but they are difficult to recover and few exist. Here, we report annually resolved ice core records from the Quelccaya ice cap (5670 meters above sea level) in Peru that extend back ~1800 years and provide a high-resolution record of climate variability there. Oxygen isotopic ratios (δ(18)O) are linked to sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, whereas concentrations of ammonium and nitrate document the dominant role played by the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in the region of the tropical Andes. Quelccaya continues to retreat and thin. Radiocarbon dates on wetland plants exposed along its retreating margins indicate that it has not been smaller for at least six millennia.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP13A1067T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP13A1067T"><span>Shifting patterns of ENSO variability from a 492-year South Pacific coral core</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tangri, N.; Linsley, B. K.; Mucciarone, D.; Dunbar, R. B.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Anticipating the impacts of ENSO in a changing climate requires detailed reconstructions of changes in its timing, amplitude, and spatial pattern, as well as attempts to attribute those changes to external forcing or internal variability. A continuous coral δ18O record from American Samoa, in the tropical South Pacific, sheds light on almost five centuries of these changes. We find evidence of internally-driven 50-100 year cycles with broad peaks of high variability punctuated by short transitions of low variability. We see a long, slow trend towards more frequent ENSO events, punctuated by sharp decreases in frequency; the 20th century in particular shows a strong trend towards higher-frequency ENSO. Due to the unique location of American Samoa with respect to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, we infer changes in the spatial pattern of ENSO. American Samoa currently lies on the ENSO 3.4 nodal line - the boomerang shape that separates waters warmed by El Niño from those that cool. Closer examination reveals that SST around American Samoa displays opposing responses to Eastern and Central Pacific ENSO events. However, this has not always been the case; in the late 19th and early 20th century, SST responded similarly to both flavors of ENSO. We interpret this to mean a geographic narrowing towards the equator of the eastern Pacific El Niño SST anomaly pattern in the first half of the 20th century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMED21A0053P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004AGUFMED21A0053P"><span>The Pacific RANET Project</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Postawko, S.; Ah Poe, A.; Morrissey, M.</p> <p>2004-12-01</p> <p>There are few places in the world more vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change than the island nations of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The region also faces great challenges in communicating the issues related to climate to the general population. Lack of communications infrastructure, multiple languages, and knowledgeable personnel to deliver information, are all challenges for these countries. However, a recently developed international consortium is taking the first steps to addressing these challenges. The RANET (RAdio and interNET communications) project was originally developed for the countries of Africa, with initial funding from NOAA, to make weather, climate, and other environmental information more accessible to remote and resource-poor communities. The program is now expanding into Asia and the Pacific. RANET works to build telecommunication bridges between scientific-based products and remote communities that could benefit from such information.?The RANET project in the Pacific is a consortium of partners from the Pacific Island nations, the U.S., New Zealand, Australia, and others. Coordination of the project is loosely overseen by a Steering Committee, made up of representatives from the various interested partners. For regions where the appropriate technology exists (which includes the capital cities of nearly all of the island states of the Pacific), information is downloaded via a digital satellite receiver. This can then be broadcast within a country by many means, including Community FM Radio stations. The information distributed includes technical information needed by meteorological and related services to improve their own products and services, as well as a second level of information designed to serve communities, including weather forecasts, bulletins, warnings, etc. The primary challenge at this time is developing content that is both relevant and understandable to these remote communities. While some information will be common to all countries, it will be necessary to have more location-specific information as well. In addition to education of the general population, it is hoped that making weather, climate, and environmental information more accessible will encourage students from the islands into the study of these areas in their tertiary education.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRG..122.3142C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRG..122.3142C"><span>Effects of Climatic Conditions and Management Practices on Agricultural Carbon and Water Budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Chi, Jinshu; Waldo, Sarah; Pressley, Shelley N.; Russell, Eric S.; O'Keeffe, Patrick T.; Pan, William L.; Huggins, David R.; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Brooks, Erin S.; Lamb, Brian K.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term effects of these environmental drivers and farming activities on carbon and water dynamics. Twenty site-years of carbon and water fluxes covering a large precipitation gradient and a variety of crop species and management practices were measured in the inland Pacific Northwest using the eddy covariance method. The rain-fed fields were net carbon sinks, while the irrigated site was close to carbon neutral during the winter wheat crop years. Sites growing spring crops were either carbon sinks, sources, or neutral, varying with crops, rainfall zones, and tillage practices. Fluxes were more sensitive to variability in precipitation than temperature: annual carbon and water fluxes increased with the increasing precipitation while only respiration increased with temperature in the high-rainfall area. Compared to a nearby rain-fed site, irrigation improved winter wheat production but resulted in large losses of carbon and water to the atmosphere. Compared to conventional tillage, no-till had significantly lower respiration but resulted in slightly lower yields and water use efficiency over 4 years. Under future climate change, it is expected that more carbon fixation by crops and evapotranspiration would occur in a warmer and wetter environment.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMOS52B..01E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFMOS52B..01E"><span>Four centuries of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature from coral archives</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.; Cobb, K. M.; Cole, J. E.; Correge, T.; Tudhope, A. W.; Rajaratnam, B.</p> <p>2012-12-01</p> <p>Our ability to judge the significance of recent climate change is fundamentally limited by the shortness and sparsity of the instrumental record. It is therefore crucial to extend the latter, particularly in the tropical Pacific where powerful air/sea interactions orchestrate global-scale low-frequency climate variability. Reconstructions of tropical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability have traditionally relied heavily on extratropical proxy records, particularly dendrochronological ones. Such dependence hinders a rigorous examination of the links between tropical SST and continental hydroclimate in the pre-instrumental era. Here we use an expanded network of high-resolution coral proxies and a novel statistical methodology (GraphEM Guillot et al., in revision) to reconstruct tropical Pacific SST back to 1600 C.E solely from annually-banded coral archives. The network and method prove able to capture ˜ 30% of interannual SST variability in the NINO3.4 region, but systematically under-represents El Nino events, especially strong ones, which negatively affect coral physiology at some sites. La Nina events, however, are more faithfully captured. The reconstructed NINO3.4 displays no long-term trend since 1600 C.E, contradicting claims that the twentieth century is anomalous with respect to a long-term baseline (McGregor et al., 2010). Changes in the preponderance of ENSO 'flavors' (Eastern Pacific vs Central Pacific El Nino events) are assessed using the methodology of (Yeh et al., 2009), and suggests that the late twentieth century trend towards increased CP El Nino occurrences is within historic norms, consistent with results employing a multivariate red noise model (Newman et al., 2011). The link to North American droughts is assessed by comparison to the Palmer Drought Severity Index from the North American Drought Atlas v2a (Cook et al., 2004; Cook, 2008): the pattern corresponding to notable droughts in the US southwest is cool tropical Pacific, both during the instrumental and pre- instrumental period. In detail, SST patterns associated with individual drought episodes may deviate from the canonical La Nina (Cook et al., 2007). Finally, superposed epoch analysis confirms the results of Adams et al. (2003) that El Nino events tend to follow large tropical explosive eruptions. A formal analysis of uncertainties will put these findings into a probabilistic context. References Adams, J., M. Mann, and C. Ammann (2003), Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing, Nature, 426, 274-278, doi:10.1038/nature02101. Cook, E. (2008), North american summer PDSI reconstructions, version 2a, NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA Data Contribution Series # 2008-046, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. Cook, E., R. Seager, M. Cane, and D. Stahle (2007), North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences, Earth Sc. Rev. Guillot, D., B. Rajaratnam, and J. Emile-Geay (in revision), A graphical model based approach to paleoclimate reconstruction, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, and O. Timm (2010), A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650, Climate of the Past, 6(1), 1-17, Newman, M., S.-I. Shin, and M. A. Alexander (2011), Natural variation in ENSO flavors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38(14) Yeh, S.-W., J.-S. Kug, B. Dewitte, M.-H. Kwon, B. P. Kirtman, and F.-F. Jin (2009), El Nino in a changing climate, Nature, 461(7263), 511-514.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53D2289Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53D2289Y"><span>North Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability and Model Biases</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yang, Y.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Remote forcing from El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local ocean-atmosphere feedback are important for climate variability over the North Tropical Atlantic. These two factors are extracted by the ensemble mean and inter-member difference of a 10-member Pacific Ocean-Global Atmosphere (POGA) experiment, in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are restored to the observed anomalies over the tropical Pacific but fully coupled to the atmosphere elsewhere. POGA reasonably captures main features of observed North Tropical Atlantic variability. ENSO forced and local North Tropical Atlantic modes (NTAMs) develop with wind-evaporation-SST feedback, explaining one third and two thirds of total variance respectively. Notable biases, however, exist. The seasonality of the simulated NTAM is delayed by one month, due to the late development of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the model. A spurious band of enhanced sea surface temperature (SST) variance (SBEV) is identified over the northern equatorial Atlantic in POGA and 14 out of 23 CMIP5 models. The SBEV is especially pronounced in boreal spring and due to the combined effect of both anomalous atmospheric thermal forcing and oceanic vertical upwelling. While the tropical North Atlantic variability is only weakly correlated with the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) in observations, the SBEV in CMIP5 produces conditions that drive and intensify the AZM variability via triggering the Bjerknes feedback. This partially explains why AZM is strong in some CMIP5 models even though the equatorial cold tongue and easterly trades are biased low.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMOS23A1989Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMOS23A1989Z"><span>The Impact of Climatological Variables on Kelp Canopy Area in the Santa Barbara Channel</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Zigner, K.; Bausell, J.; Kudela, R. M.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>Kelp canopy area (KCA), a proxy for kelp forest health, has important implications for small and large-scale processes pertaining to fisheries, near shore currents, and marine ecosystems. As part of the NASA Airborne Science Research Program (SARP), this study examines the impact of ocean chemistry and climatological variables on KCA in the Santa Barbara Channel through time series analysis. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and upwelling indices as well as sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, nitrate, and chlorophyll-a concentrations taken within the Santa Barbara channel (1990-2014) were acquired from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation (CalCOFI), and Di Lorenzo's NPGO websites. These data were then averaged for winter (November-January) and summer (May-August) seasons and compared to KCA measurements derived from Landsat images via unsupervised classification. Regression, cumulative sum tests, and cross-correlation coefficients revealed a two year lag between KCA and the NPGO, indicating the presence of an additional factor driving both variables. Further analyses suggests that the NPO may be this driving factor, as indicated by the correlation (lag 0) with KCA. Comparing relationships between kelp and other variables over various time periods supports the acceleration of the NPGO and other variables in more recent years. Exploring relationships between KCA, NPGO, and NPO may provide insight into potential impacts of climate change on coastal marine ecosystems.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.7914O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.7914O"><span>Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>The main moisture source for precipitation on the western slopes of the Central Andes is located east of the mountain range known as the Amazon basin. However, the Andean mountains, which reach up to 6000 m a.s.l., strongly influence climatic conditions along the Pacific coastline of South America as a climatic barrier for the low-level tropospheric flow and associated moisture transport from the Amazon basin. Additional, large scale subsidence caused by the South Pacific High inhabits convective rainfall at the Pacific coast where large metropolitan areas such as the Peruvian capital Lima are located. Two contrasts in precipitation can be found while crossing the Andean mountains from West to East. On the Pacific coast, at the location of the metropolitan area of Lima, no more than 10 mm mean annual rainfall occurs. In contrast, up to 1000 mm mean annual rainfall occur only 100 km east of Lima within the upper region (4000 m .a.s.l.) of the Western Cordillera. The transition takes place along the western slopes of the Western Cordillera and is characterised by a strong precipitation gradient. Here, catchment areas are located that provide most of the water resources needed to sustain an urban area of approximately 10 million people. This study investigates the interannual variability of the precipitation gradient between 1998 and 2012. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data of 22 rain gauge station, daily rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Mission (TRMM 3B42) at 0.25 degrees and reanalysis data at 36 km spatial resolution at the mesoscale. The reanalysis data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Station data was provided by the Peruvian weather service during the project "Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management in Urban Growth Centres Coping with Climate Change - Concepts for Lima Metropolitana (Peru) (LiWa)", which is financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We are interested in the following questions. How is the interannual variability of the observed precipitation gradient related to atmospheric circulation east (Amazon basin) and west (south-east Pacific) of the study region? If those relations are quantifiable, are there any forecast potentials for the characteristics of the precipitation gradient during the raining season? The results of the study provide valuable information needed to understand the generation of rainfall in the frame of a case study for the largest metropolitan area that is located at the arid Pacific coast of Peru. This information may also be useful for local managers in order to optimise water resource management and land use strategies.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5643054','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5643054"><span>Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Loisel, Julie; MacDonald, Glen M.; Thomson, Marcus J.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest. PMID:29036207</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/46155','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/46155"><span>Explaining spatial variability in stream habitats using both natural and management-influenced landscape predictors</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>K.J. Anlauf; D.W. Jensen; K.M. Burnett; E.A. Steel; K. Christiansen; J.C. Firman; B.E. Feist; D.P. Larsen</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>1. The distribution and composition of in-stream habitats are reflections of landscape scale geomorphic and climatic controls. Correspondingly, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are largely adapted to and constrained by the quality and complexity of those in-stream habitat conditions. The degree to which lands have been fragmented and managed can...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018BGeo...15.3243S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018BGeo...15.3243S"><span>Climate and marine biogeochemistry during the Holocene from transient model simulations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Segschneider, Joachim; Schneider, Birgit; Khon, Vyacheslav</p> <p>2018-06-01</p> <p>Climate and marine biogeochemistry changes over the Holocene are investigated based on transient global climate and biogeochemistry model simulations over the last 9500 years. The simulations are forced by accelerated and non-accelerated orbital parameters, respectively, and atmospheric pCO2, CH4, and N2O. The analysis focusses on key climatic parameters of relevance to the marine biogeochemistry, and on the physical and biogeochemical processes that drive atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes and changes in the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). The simulated global mean ocean temperature is characterized by a mid-Holocene cooling and a late Holocene warming, a common feature among Holocene climate simulations which, however, contradicts a proxy-derived mid-Holocene climate optimum. As the most significant result, and only in the non-accelerated simulation, we find a substantial increase in volume of the OMZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) continuing into the late Holocene. The concurrent increase in apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) and age of the water mass within the EEP OMZ can be attributed to a weakening of the deep northward inflow into the Pacific. This results in a large-scale mid-to-late Holocene increase in AOU in most of the Pacific and hence the source regions of the EEP OMZ waters. The simulated expansion of the EEP OMZ raises the question of whether the deoxygenation that has been observed over the last 5 decades could be a - perhaps accelerated - continuation of an orbitally driven decline in oxygen. Changes in global mean biological production and export of detritus remain of the order of 10 %, with generally lower values in the mid-Holocene. The simulated atmosphere-ocean CO2 flux would result in atmospheric pCO2 changes of similar magnitudes to those observed for the Holocene, but with different timing. More technically, as the increase in EEP OMZ volume can only be simulated with the non-accelerated model simulation, non-accelerated model simulations are required for an analysis of the marine biogeochemistry in the Holocene. Notably, the long control experiment also displays similar magnitude variability to the transient experiment for some parameters. This indicates that also long control runs are required when investigating Holocene climate and marine biogeochemistry, and that some of the Holocene variations could be attributed to internal variability of the atmosphere-ocean system.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.4928B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.4928B"><span>Tropical Pacific sea surface salinity variability derived from SMOS data: Comparison with in-situ observations.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ballabrera, Joaquim; Hoareau, Nina; Umbert, Marta; Martínez, Justino; Turiel, Antonio</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>Prediction of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and its relation with global climate anomalies, continues to be an important research effort in short-term climate forecasting. This task has become even more challenging as researchers are becoming more and more convinced that there is not a single archetypical El Niño (or La Niña) pattern, but several. During some events (called now Standard or East Pacific), the largest temperature anomalies are located at the eastern part of the Pacific. However, during some of the most recent events, the largest anomalies are restricted to the central part of the Pacific Ocean, and are now called Central Pacific or Modoki (a Japanese word for "almost") events. Although the role of salinity in operational ENSO forecasting was initially neglected (in contrast with temperature, sea level, or surface winds), recent studies have shown that salinity does play a role in the preconditioning of ENSO. Moreover, some researchers suggest that sea surface salinity might play a role (through the modulation of the western Pacific barrier layer) to favor the Standard or the Modoki nature of each event. Sea Surface Salinity maps are being operationally generated from microwave (L-band, 1.4 Ghz) brightness temperature maps. The L-band frequency was chosen because is the optimal one for ocean salinity measurements. However, after three years of satellite data, it has been found that noise in brightness temperatures (due to natural and artificial sources) is larger than expected. Moreover, the retrieval of SSS information requires special care because of the low sensitivity of the brightness temperature to SSS: from 0.2-0.8 K per salinity unit. Despite of all these facts, current accuracy of SS maps ranges from 0.2-0.4, depending on the processing level and the region being considered. We present here our study about the salinity variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean from the 9-day, 0.25 bins salinity maps derived from the SMOS reprocessing campaign released to the SMOS user community on March 2011. During the period under study, the equatorial Pacific has been in a quasi-continuous La Niña state. During the cold phases of ENSO, positive anomalies of SSS are expected with the largest anomalous values in the western warm-fresh pool. The anomalies derived from the SMOS data do indeed display a positive anomaly. The persistence of the feature, its geographical pattern, the time modulation of the anomaly amplitude indicate, and its resemblance with in situ observations indicate this novel observation technology is currently able to capture seasonal and interannual signatures of climate interest.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PalOc..32..903T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PalOc..32..903T"><span>Tropical Pacific climate variability over the last 6000 years as recorded in Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thompson, Diane M.; Conroy, Jessica L.; Collins, Aaron; Hlohowskyj, Stephan R.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Riedinger-Whitmore, Melanie; Cole, Julia E.; Bush, Mark B.; Whitney, H.; Corley, Timothy L.; Kannan, Miriam Steinitz</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>Finely laminated sediments within Bainbridge Crater Lake, Galápagos, provide a record of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the Holocene. Despite the importance of this sediment record, hypotheses for how climate variability is preserved in the lake sediments have not been tested. Here we present results of long-term monitoring of the local climate and limnology and a revised interpretation of the sediment record. Brown-green, organic-rich, siliciclastic laminae reflect warm, wet conditions typical of El Niño events, whereas carbonate and gypsum precipitate during cool, dry La Niña events and persistent dry periods, respectively. Applying this new interpretation, we find that ENSO events of both phases were generally less frequent during the mid-Holocene ( 6100-4000 calendar years B.P.) relative to the last 1500 calendar years. Abundant carbonate laminations between 3500 and 3000 calendar years B.P. imply that conditions in the Galápagos region were cool and dry during this period when the tropical Pacific E-W sea surface temperature (SST) gradient likely strengthened. The frequency of El Niño and La Niña events then intensified dramatically around 1750-2000 calendar years B.P., consistent with a weaker SST gradient and an increased frequency of ENSO events in other regional records. This strong interannual variability persisted until 700 calendar years B.P., when ENSO-related variability at the lake decreased as the SST gradient strengthened. Persistent, dry conditions then dominated between 300 and 50 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1650-1900, ± 100 years), whereas wetter conditions and frequent El Niño events dominated in the most recent century.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMIN53A3785S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMIN53A3785S"><span>"Development of an interactive crop growth web service architecture to review and forecast agricultural sustainability"</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Walden, V. P.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>As climate change and weather variability raise issues regarding agricultural production, agricultural sustainability has become an increasingly important component for farmland management (Fisher, 2005, Akinci, 2013). Yet with changes in soil quality, agricultural practices, weather, topography, land use, and hydrology - accurately modeling such agricultural outcomes has proven difficult (Gassman et al, 2007, Williams et al, 1995). This study examined agricultural sustainability and soil health over a heterogeneous multi-watershed area within the Inland Pacific Northwest of the United States (IPNW) - as part of a five year, USDA funded effort to explore the sustainability of cereal production systems (Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture - award #2011-68002-30191). In particular, crop growth and soil erosion were simulated across a spectrum of variables and time periods - using the CropSyst crop growth model (Stockle et al, 2002) and the Water Erosion Protection Project Model (WEPP - Flanagan and Livingston, 1995), respectively. A preliminary range of historical scenarios were run, using a high-resolution, 4km gridded dataset of surface meteorological variables from 1979-2010 (Abatzoglou, 2012). In addition, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) global climate model (GCM) outputs were used as input to run crop growth model and erosion future scenarios (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). To facilitate our integrated data analysis efforts, an agricultural sustainability web service architecture (THREDDS/Java/Python based) is under development, to allow for the programmatic uploading, sharing and processing of variable input data, running model simulations, as well as downloading and visualizing output results. The results of this study will assist in better understanding agricultural sustainability and erosion relationships in the IPNW, as well as provide a tangible server-based tool for use by researchers and farmers - for both small scale field examination, or more regionalized scenarios.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active"><span>20</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_20 --> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..919P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..919P"><span>What drove the Pacific and North America climate anomalies in winter 2014/15?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Peng, Peitao; Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>In late 2014 and early 2015, the canonical atmospheric response to the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was not observed in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, although Niño3.4 index exceeded the threshold for a weak El Niño. In an effort to understand why it was so, this study deconvoluted the observed 2014/15 December-January-February (DJF) mean sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation and 200 hPa stream function anomalies into the leading patterns related to the principal components of DJF SST variability. It is noted that the anomalies of these variables were primarily determined by the patterns related to two SST modes: one is the North Pacific mode (NPM), and the other the ENSO mode. The NPM was responsible for the apparent lack of coupled air-sea relationship in the central equatorial Pacific and the east-west structure of the circulation anomalies over North America, while the ENSO mode linked to SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as well as the circulation in the central equatorial Pacific. Further, the ENSO signal in DJF 2014/15 likely evolved from the NPM pattern in winter 2013/14. Its full development, however, was impeded by the easterly anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific that was associated with negative SST anomalies in the southeastern subtropical Pacific. In addition, the analyses also indicates that the SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region alone were not adequate for capturing the coupling of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the tropical Pacific, due to the fact that this index cannot distinguish whether the SST anomaly in the Niño3.4 region is associated with the ENSO mode or NPM, or both.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29339487','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29339487"><span>Uncovering the role of the East Asian jet stream and heterogeneities in atmospheric rivers affecting the western United States.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele</p> <p>2018-01-30</p> <p>Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert major socioeconomic repercussions along the US West Coast by inducing heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds, and storm surge. Despite the significant societal and economic repercussions of these storms, our understanding of the physical drivers responsible for their interannual variability is limited, with different climate modes identified as possible mechanisms. Here we show that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnections/patterns and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) exhibit a strong linkage with the total frequency of ARs making landfall over the western United States, much stronger than the other potential climate modes previously considered. While our findings indicate that the PJ pattern and EASJ are the most relevant climate modes driving the overall AR activity, we also uncover heterogeneities in AR tracks. Specifically, we show that not all ARs making landfall along the West Coast come from a single population, but rather that it is possible to stratify these storms into three clusters. While the PJ pattern and EASJ are major drivers of AR activity for two clusters, the cluster that primarily affects the US Southwest is largely driven by other climate modes [El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)]. Therefore, important regional differences exist and this information can substantially enhance our ability to predict and prepare for these storms and their impacts.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41D..03O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP41D..03O"><span>Orbital Forcing driving climate variability on Tropical South Atlantic</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Oliveira, A. S.; Baker, P. A.; Silva, C. G.; Dwyer, G. S.; Chiessi, C. M.; Rigsby, C. A.; Ferreira, F.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Past research on climate response to orbital forcing in tropical South America has emphasized on high precession cycles influencing low latitude hydrologic cycles, and driving the meridional migration of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).However, marine proxy records from the tropical Pacific Ocean showed a strong 41-ka periodicities in Pleistocene seawater temperature and productivity related to fluctuations in Earth's obliquity. It Indicates that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. To reconstruct different climate regimes over the continent and understand the orbital cycle forcing over Tropical South America climate, hydrological reconstruction have been undertaken on sediment cores located on the Brazilian continental slope, representing the past 1.6 million years. Core CDH 79 site is located on a 2345 m deep seamount on the northern Brazilian continental slope (00° 39.6853' N, 44° 20.7723' W), 320 km from modern coastline of the Maranhão Gulf. High-resolution XRF analyses of Fe, Ti, K and Ca are used to define the changes in precipitation and sedimentary input history of Tropical South America. The response of the hydrology cycle to orbital forcing was studied using spectral analysis.The 1600 ka records of dry/wet conditions presented here indicates that orbital time-scale climate change has been a dominant feature of tropical climate. We conclude that the observed oscillation reflects variability in the ITCZ activity associated with the Earth's tilt. The prevalence of the eccentricity and obliquity signals in continental hydrology proxies (Ti/Ca and Fe/K) as implicated in our precipitation records, highlights that these orbital forcings play an important role in tropics hydrologic cycles. Throughout the Quaternary abrupt shifts of tropical variability are temporally correlated with abrupt climate changes and atmospheric reorganization during Mid-Pleistocene Transition and Mid-Brunhes Events. Our findings suggets that over Late Quaternary, the N-S ITCZ movement is not only exclusively related to precessional forcing. The prevalence of the obliquity signal in both precipitation and weathering as implicated in our records, highlights that this orbital forcing exerts a significant control on global hydrological cycle.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20020016074&hterms=BIO&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DBIO','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20020016074&hterms=BIO&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D80%26Ntt%3DBIO"><span>Bio-Optical Measurements at Ocean Boundaries in Support of SIMBIOS. Chapter 7</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Chavez, Francisco P.; Strutton, Peter G.; Schlining, Brian M.</p> <p>2001-01-01</p> <p>The equatorial Pacific is a major component of global biogeochemical cycles, due to upwelling that occurs from the coast of South America to beyond 180 deg. This upwelling has significant implications for global CO2 fluxes, as well as primary and secondary production. In addition, this region of the world's oceans represents a large oceanic province over which validation data for Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) are necessary. This project consists of a mooring program and supporting cruise-based measurements aimed at quantifying the spectrum of biological and chemical variability in the equatorial Pacific and obtaining validation data for SeaWiFS. The project has the following general objectives: (1) to understand the relationships between physical forcing, primary production, nutrient supply and the exchange of carbon dioxide between ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific; (2) to describe the biological and chemical responses to climate and ocean variability; (3) to describe the spatial, seasonal and inter-annual variability in near surface plant pigments, primary production, carbon dioxide and nutrient distributions; and (4) to obtain near real-time bio-optical measurements for validation of SeaWiFS and subsequent ocean color sensors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024733','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70024733"><span>Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Simpson, James J.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.; Berg, Jared S.; Ashton, J.B.</p> <p>2002-01-01</p> <p>Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1165163','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1165163"><span></span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Branstator, Grant</p> <p></p> <p>The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to externalmore » forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of especially predictable patterns in the North Atlantic. The most predictable of these retain predictability substantially longer than generic patterns, with some being predictable for two decades.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP31A1245L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP31A1245L"><span>Do our reconstructions of ENSO have too much low-frequency variability?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Loope, G. R.; Overpeck, J. T.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Reconstructing the spectrum of Pacific SST variability has proven to be difficult both because of complications with proxy systems such as tree rings and the relatively small number of records from the tropical Pacific. We show that the small number of long coral δ18O and Sr/Ca records has caused a bias towards having too much low-frequency variability in PCR, CPS, and RegEM reconstructions of Pacific variability. This occurs because the individual coral records used in the reconstructions have redder spectra than the shared signal (e.g. ENSO). This causes some of the unshared, low-frequency signal from local climate, salinity and possibly coral biology to bleed into the reconstruction. With enough chronologies in a reconstruction, this unshared noise cancels out but the problem is exacerbated in our longest reconstructions where fewer records are available. Coral proxies tend to have more low-frequency variability than SST observations so this problem is smaller but can still be seen in pseudoproxy experiments using observations and reanalysis data. The identification of this low-frequency bias in coral reconstructions helps bring the spectra of ENSO reconstructions back into line with both models and observations. Although our analysis is mostly constrained to the 20th century due to lack of sufficient data, we expect that as more long chronologies are developed, the low-frequency signal in ENSO reconstructions will be greatly reduced.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1328543-spatial-patterns-sea-level-variability-associated-natural-internal-climate-modes','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1328543-spatial-patterns-sea-level-variability-associated-natural-internal-climate-modes"><span>Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef</p> <p></p> <p>Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1328543-spatial-patterns-sea-level-variability-associated-natural-internal-climate-modes','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1328543-spatial-patterns-sea-level-variability-associated-natural-internal-climate-modes"><span>Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...</p> <p>2016-10-04</p> <p>Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SGeo...38..217H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SGeo...38..217H"><span>Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA43B2200K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA43B2200K"><span>Collaboration for Actionable Climate Science in Hawaii and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Keener, V. W.; Grecni, Z. N.; Helweg, D. A.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Hawaii and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) encompass more than 2000 islands spread across millions of square miles of ocean. Islands can be high volcanic or low atolls, and vary widely in terms of geography, climate, ecology, language, culture, economies, government, and vulnerability to climate change impacts. For these reasons, meaningful collaboration across research groups and climate organizations is not only helpful, it is mandatory. No single group can address all the needs of every island, stakeholder, or sector, which has led to close collaboration and leveraging of research in the region to fill different niches. The NOAA-funded Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) program, DOI Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), and the DOI LCC the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC) all take a stakeholder oriented approach to climate research, and have successfully collaborated on both specific projects and larger initiatives. Examples of these collaborations include comprising the core team of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), the regional arm of the US National Climate Assessment, co-sponsoring a workshop on regional downscaling for scientists and managers, leveraging research projects across multiple sectors on a single island, collaborating on communication products such as handouts and websites to ensure a consistent message, and in the case of the Pacific RISA and the PICSC, jointly funding a PIRCA Sustained Assessment Specialist position. Barriers to collaboration have been around topics such as roles of research versus granting groups, perceived research overlap, and funding uncertainties. However, collaborations have been overwhelming positive in the Pacific Islands region due to communication, recognition of partners' strengths and expertise, and especially because of the "umbrella" organization and purpose provided by the PIRCA structure, which provides a shared platform for all regional groups working on climate science and adaptation, not owned by any one group. This work will give examples of successes and barriers encountered in the region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PrOce..77..252Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008PrOce..77..252Y"><span>Elucidating dynamic responses of North Pacific fish populations to climatic forcing: Influence of life-history strategy</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yatsu, A.; Aydin, K. Y.; King, J. R.; McFarlane, G. A.; Chiba, S.; Tadokoro, K.; Kaeriyama, M.; Watanabe, Y.</p> <p>2008-05-01</p> <p>In order to explore mechanistic linkages between low-frequency ocean/climate variability, and fish population responses, we undertook comparative studies of time-series of recruitment-related productivity and the biomass levels of fish stocks representing five life-history strategies in the northern North Pacific between the 1950s and the present. We selected seven species: Japanese sardine ( Sardinopus melanostictus) and California sardine ( Sardinopus sagax) (opportunistic strategists), walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma, intermediate strategist), pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha, salmonic strategist), sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria) and Pacific halibut ( Hippoglossus stenolepis) (periodic strategists) and spiny dogfish ( Squalus acanthias, equilibrium strategist). The responses in terms of productivity of sardine, pink salmon, sablefish and halibut to climatic regime shifts were generally immediate, delayed, or no substantial responses depending on the particular regime shift year and fish stock (population). In walleye pollock, there were some periods of high productivity and low productivity, but not coincidental to climatic regime shifts, likely due to indirect climate forcing impacts on both bottom-up and top-down processes. Biomass of zooplankton and all fish stocks examined, except for spiny dogfish whose data were limited, indicated a decadal pattern with the most gradual changes in periodic strategists and most intensive and rapid changes in opportunistic strategists. Responses of sardine productivity to regime shifts were the most intense, probably due to the absence of density-dependent effects and the availability of refuges from predators when sardine biomass was extremely low. Spiny dogfish were least affected by environmental variability. Conversely, spiny dogfish are likely to withstand only modest harvest rates due to their very low intrinsic rate of increase. Thus, each life-history strategy type had a unique response to climatic forcing, owing to their inherent biological traits such as mode, frequency and intensity of reproduction, early life style, age of maturity and longevity. On the other hand, responses of different stocks within a species to climatic regime shifts were unique to each local region, because large-scale climatic forcings are modulated by local physical, chemical and biological processes. The observed response time or absence of response in recruitment-related fish productivity to climatic regime shifts may be influenced by (1) local environmental conditions (immediate, with a delay or no effects), (2) phenological shifts in zooplankton life-history (immediate or with a delay), and (3) stochastic episodic events in both top-down and bottom-up processes (immediate, with a delay or no effects).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ThApC.132..739B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ThApC.132..739B"><span>Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982-2009</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Boccolari, Mauro; Parmiggiani, Flavio</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982-2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than -5 % dec -1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5 % dec -1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial "non-variability" in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.5661B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.5661B"><span>Response of the midlatitude jets and of their variability to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Barnes, Elizabeth; Polvani, Lorenzo</p> <p>2013-04-01</p> <p>This work documents how the midlatitude, eddy-driven jets respond to climate change using output from 72 model integrations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We consider separately the North Atlantic, the North Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere jets. Unlike previous studies, we do not limit our analysis to annual mean changes in the latitude and speed of the jets only, but also explore how the daily variability of each jet changes with increased greenhouse gases. Given the direct connection between synoptic activity and the location of the eddy-driven jet, changes in jet variability directly relate to the changes in the future storm tracks. We find that all jets migrate poleward with climate change: the Southern Hemisphere jet shifts poleward by 2 degrees of latitude between the Historical period and the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, whereas the Northern Hemisphere jets shift by only 1 degree. The speed of the Southern Hemisphere jet also increases markedly (by 1.2 m/s between 850-700 hPa), while the speed remains nearly constant for both jets in the Northern Hemisphere. The seasonality of the jet shifts will also be addressed, whereby the largest poleward jet shift occurs in the autumn of each hemisphere (i.e. MAM for the Southern Hemisphere jet, and SON for the North Atlantic and North Pacific jets). We find that the structure of the daily jet variability is a strong function of the jet position in all three sectors of the globe. For the Southern Hemisphere and the North Atlantic jets, the variability becomes less of a north-south wobbling (i.e. an `annular mode') with a poleward shift of the jet. In contrast, for the North Pacific jet, the variability becomes less of a pulsing and more of a north-south wobbling. In spite of these differences, we are able find a mechanism (based on Rossby wave breaking) that is able to explain many of the changes in jet variability within a single theoretical framework.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC11E..06S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC11E..06S"><span>Food and water security scenarios for East Africa over next 20 years</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Broad areas of East Africa face chronic water and agricultural insecurity. Over the last decade, the region has experienced frequent drought events leading to food security emergencies and even famine in Somalia in 2011. The impact of these drought events, associated with recent declines in rainfall during major growing seasons, has been particularly severe due to the high vulnerability of subsistence agricultural and pastoralist livelihoods, rapid population growth, and the limited availability of resources for agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) funded activity that brings together international, regional and national partners to provide timely and rigorous early warning and food security information in Africa and other regions of the developing world. To assist USAID with planning agricultural development strategies over the next ten years in East Africa, FEWS NET is partnering with climate scientists and adaptation specialists at regional institutions to study and assess future changes in precipitation and temperature in light of global climate change, natural climate variability, and their related impacts on agricultural and water security in the region. The overarching objective of this study is to provide future scenarios of food and water security (as estimated by trends in soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and runoff) for East Africa. We do so by following two approaches: Constructed Analogs and the Composite Delta Method. In the first approach we downscaled climate projections (precipitation and temperature projections) of long-term Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP5) experiments over (a) historical (1850-2005) and (b) Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2006-2030) periods. Current climate is characterized by two ENSO modes, the intensity of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the strength of the Indo-Pacific warming signal (IPWS). These modes are used in conjunction with CMIP5-estimates of IPWS to project 2030 climate conditions. In the second approach we use the much simpler Composite Delta Method to generate climate projections. Future climate projections are generated by simply altering the mean observed climate to match the mean climate of the climate model projections. Projections of precipitation and temperature from both approaches were then used to drive NASA's FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) to simulate the hydrologic variables most relevant to agriculture and water security: runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. These outputs inform 2030 food and water security scenarios for East Africa. Finally we also investigate the impact of precipitation versus temperature changes on agriculture and water security in East Africa. We do so by keeping either one of those forcings constant while using the actual projections of the other variable to generate projections of hydrologic variables as described above.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.2635L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...48.2635L"><span>Simulated decadal modes of the NH atmospheric circulation arising from intra-decadal variability, external forcing and slow-decadal climate processes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lou, Jiale; Zheng, Xiaogu; Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Liu, Haibo; Grainger, Simon; Ying, Kairan</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>A decadal variance decomposition method is applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500-hPa geopotential height (GPH) and the sea level pressure (SLP) taken from the last millennium (850-1850 AD) experiment with the coupled climate model CCSM4, to estimate the contribution of the intra-decadal variability to the inter-decadal variability. By removing the intra-decadal variability from the total inter-decadal variability, the residual variability is more likely to be associated with slowly varying external forcings and slow-decadal climate processes, and therefore is referred to as slow-decadal variability. The results show that the (multi-)decadal changes of the NH 500-hPa GPH are primarily dominated by slow-decadal variability, whereas the NH SLP field is primarily dominated by the intra-decadal variability. At both pressure levels, the leading intra-decadal modes each have features related to the El Niño-southern oscillation, the intra-decadal variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Arctic oscillation (AO); while the leading slow-decadal modes are associated with external radiative forcing (mostly with volcanic aerosol loadings), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and the slow-decadal variability of AO and PDO. Moreover, the radiative forcing has much weaker effect to the SLP than that to the 500-hPa GPH.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.G13B1104L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.G13B1104L"><span>Interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) as a tool to assess climate variability and climate change</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Lehmann, E.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>On interannual time scales the atmosphere affects significantly fluctuations in the geodetic quantity of length-of-day (LOD). This effect is directly proportional to perturbations in the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (AAM) computed from zonal winds. During El Niño events tropospheric westerlies increase due to elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific inducing peak anomalies in relative AAM and correspondingly, in LOD. However, El Niño events affect LOD variations differently strong and the causes of this varying effect are yet not clear. Here, we investigate the LOD-El Niño relationship in the 20th and 21st century (1982-2100) whether the quantity of LOD can be used as a geophysical tool to assess variability and change in a future climate. In our analysis we applied a windowed discrete Fourier transform on all de-seasonalized data to remove climatic signals outside of the El Niño frequency band. LOD (data: IERS) was related in space and time to relative AAM and SSTs (data: ERA-40 reanalysis, IPCC ECHAM05-OM1 20C, A1B). Results from mapped Pearson correlation coefficients and time frequency behavior analysis identified a teleconnection pattern that we term the EN≥65%-index. The EN≥65%-index prescribes a significant change in variation in length-of-day of +65% and more related to (1) SST anomalies of >2° in the Pacific Niño region (160°E-80°W, 5°S-5°N), (2) corresponding stratospheric warming anomalies of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and (3) strong westerly winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our analysis we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean conditions prescribed in the EN≥65%-index apply to the extreme El Niño events of 19982/83 and 1997/98, and to 75% of all El Niño events in the last third of the 21st century. At that period of time the EN≥65%-index describes a projected altered base state of the equatorial Pacific that shows almost continuous El Niño conditions under climate warming.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMOS23C2025A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMOS23C2025A"><span>Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990PalOc...5..669C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1990PalOc...5..669C"><span>The Southern Oscillation recorded in the δ18O of corals from Tarawa Atoll</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cole, Julia E.; Fairbanks, Richard G.</p> <p>1990-10-01</p> <p>In the western equatorial Pacific, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is characterized by precipitation variability associated with the migration of the Indonesian low pressure cell to the region of the date line and the equator. During ENSO events, Tarawa Atoll (1°N, 172°E) experiences heavy rainfall which has an estimated δ18O of about -8 to -10‰ δ18OSMOW. At Tarawa, sufficient precipitation of this composition falls during ENSO events to alter the δ18O and the salinity of the surface waters. Oxygen isotope records from two corals collected off the reef crest of Tarawa reflect rainfall variations associated with both weak and strong ENSO conditions, with approximately monthly resolution. Coral skeletal δ18O variations due to small sea surface temperature (SST) changes are secondary. These records demonstrate the remarkable ability of this technique to reconstruct variations in the position of the Indonesian Low from coral δ18O records in the western equatorial Pacific, a region which has few paleoclimatic records. The coral isotopic data correctly resolve the relative magnitudes of recent variations in the Southern Oscillation Index. Combining the Tarawa record with an oxygen isotopic history from a Galápagos Islands coral demonstrates the ability to distinguish the meteorologic (precipitation) and oceanographic (SST) anomalies that characterize ENSO events across the Pacific Basin over the period of common record (1960-1979). Comparison of the intensity of climatic anomalies at these two sites yields insight into the spatial variability of ENSO events. Isotope records from older corals can provide high-resolution, Pacific-wide reconstructions of ENSO behavior during periods of different climate boundary conditions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23J0375L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A23J0375L"><span>Simulation and Projection of the Western Pacific Subtropical High by CMIP5 Models</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Liu, Y.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>This work examined the performance of 26 coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in the simulation of the present-day temporal variability and spatial pattern of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The results show that most models are able to capture the spatial distribution and variability of the 500-hPa geopotential height and zonal wind fields in the western subtropical Pacific, with the underestimation of the mean intensities of WPSH. The underestimation may be associated with the cold bias of sea surface temperature in the tropical Indian and western Pacific oceans in the models. To eliminate the impact of the climatology biases, the climatology of these models is replaced by that of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis in the verification. It is noted that on interdecadal timescales, the models reproduce the shift of WPSH with enhancement and westward extension after the late 1970s. According to assessment of the simulations of the WPSH indices, it is found that some models (CNRM-CM5, FGOALS-g2, FIO-ESM, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-P) are better than others in simulating WPSH. Then, the ensemble mean of these better models are used to project the future changes of WPSH under three typical representation concentration pathway scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6). It is suggested that the WPSH enlarges and strengthens, and its position extends westward under the scenarios, with the largest linear growth trend in RCP8.5, smallest in RCP2.6, and in between in RCP4.5; while the ridge line of WPSH does not show obvious long-term trend. These results may have implications for the attribution and prediction of climate variations and changes in East Asia.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active"><span>21</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_21 --> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMED31F3469O','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMED31F3469O"><span>Analysis of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Phenomena's Effect on the Gross Domestic Product of Western Pacific Nations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>O'Connell, M.; Lewis, A.; Mezzafonte, D.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climatological phenomenon that occurs in the tropical Pacific Ocean which has a direct influence on the climate of western Pacific nations. This study evaluated the meteorological effects of ENSO on the economies of Indonesia and the Philippines. It was hypothesized that decreased precipitation in the western Tropical Pacific region during El Niño events causes decreases in agricultural production in the region resulting in a negative effect on a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Furthermore, during La Niña events, when precipitation increases, an increase in the nation's agricultural GDP and overall GDP is expected. Annual GDP data were obtained from the World Bank and the Bank of Indonesia for 1960-2012. Sea surface temperatures (SST) data, in the Niño 3.4 region, were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center. Data of the agricultural and total GDP of Indonesia and the Philippines had inconclusive correlations with ENSO signal data. By examining data between smaller time segments of the overall 1960-2012 timeframe, more conclusive results could not be discerned. Indonesia's quarterly non-oil GDP for 2000-2009 was independently correlated with ENSO providing better insight on the variables' relationship during discrete ENSO phenomena. The results provided strong correlation coefficients of 0.831 and 0.624 in support of the antithesis as well as -0.421 in support of the hypothesis. An economic anomaly known as the East Asian Financial Crisis may have been the cause of the unexpected correlations however more data is needed to be certain. Overall, the results demonstrated weak to moderate correlations between studied variables. However, more data is needed to reach substantial conclusions.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PrOce.138..533W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015PrOce.138..533W"><span>Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: Comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A.; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Howell, Evan A.; Blanchard, Julia L.</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>We compare two ecosystem model projections of 21st century climate change and fishing impacts in the central North Pacific. Both a species-based and a size-based ecosystem modeling approach are examined. While both models project a decline in biomass across all sizes in response to climate change and a decline in large fish biomass in response to increased fishing mortality, the models vary significantly in their handling of climate and fishing scenarios. For example, based on the same climate forcing the species-based model projects a 15% decline in catch by the end of the century while the size-based model projects a 30% decline. Disparities in the models' output highlight the limitations of each approach by showing the influence model structure can have on model output. The aspects of bottom-up change to which each model is most sensitive appear linked to model structure, as does the propagation of interannual variability through the food web and the relative impact of combined top-down and bottom-up change. Incorporating integrated size- and species-based ecosystem modeling approaches into future ensemble studies may help separate the influence of model structure from robust projections of ecosystem change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28223483','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28223483"><span>Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Shen, Lu; Mickley, Loretta J</p> <p>2017-03-07</p> <p>We develop a statistical model to predict June-July-August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean-atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5347621','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5347621"><span>Seasonal prediction of US summertime ozone using statistical analysis of large scale climate patterns</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mickley, Loretta J.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>We develop a statistical model to predict June–July–August (JJA) daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) ozone concentrations in the eastern United States based on large-scale climate patterns during the previous spring. We find that anomalously high JJA ozone in the East is correlated with these springtime patterns: warm tropical Atlantic and cold northeast Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), as well as positive sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over Hawaii and negative SLP anomalies over the Atlantic and North America. We then develop a linear regression model to predict JJA MDA8 ozone from 1980 to 2013, using the identified SST and SLP patterns from the previous spring. The model explains ∼45% of the variability in JJA MDA8 ozone concentrations and ∼30% variability in the number of JJA ozone episodes (>70 ppbv) when averaged over the eastern United States. This seasonal predictability results from large-scale ocean–atmosphere interactions. Warm tropical Atlantic SSTs can trigger diabatic heating in the atmosphere and influence the extratropical climate through stationary wave propagation, leading to greater subsidence, less precipitation, and higher temperatures in the East, which increases surface ozone concentrations there. Cooler SSTs in the northeast Pacific are also associated with more summertime heatwaves and high ozone in the East. On average, models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project fail to capture the influence of this ocean–atmosphere interaction on temperatures in the eastern United States, implying that such models would have difficulty simulating the interannual variability of surface ozone in this region. PMID:28223483</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3003093','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3003093"><span>Antarctic lakes suggest millennial reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Hall, Brenda L.; Denton, George H.; Fountain, Andrew G.; Hendy, Chris H.; Henderson, Gideon M.</p> <p>2010-01-01</p> <p>The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes. PMID:21115838</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21115838','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21115838"><span>Antarctic lakes suggest millennial reorganizations of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic circulation.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Hall, Brenda L; Denton, George H; Fountain, Andrew G; Hendy, Chris H; Henderson, Gideon M</p> <p>2010-12-14</p> <p>The phasing of millennial-scale oscillations in Antarctica relative to those elsewhere in the world is important for discriminating among models for abrupt climate change, particularly those involving the Southern Ocean. However, records of millennial-scale variability from Antarctica dating to the last glacial maximum are rare and rely heavily on data from widely spaced ice cores, some of which show little variability through that time. Here, we present new data from closed-basin lakes in the Dry Valleys region of East Antarctica that show high-magnitude, high-frequency oscillations in surface level during the late Pleistocene synchronous with climate fluctuations elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere. These data suggest a coherent Southern Hemisphere pattern of climate change on millennial time scales, at least in the Pacific sector, and indicate that any hypothesis concerning the origin of these events must account for synchronous changes in both high and temperate latitudes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.1471K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.1471K"><span>Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak</p> <p>2018-02-01</p> <p>The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PalOc..29.1094F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014PalOc..29.1094F"><span>Precipitation variability within the West Pacific Warm Pool over the past 120 ka: Evidence from the Davao Gulf, southern Philippines</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Fraser, Nicholas; Kuhnt, Wolfgang; Holbourn, Ann; Bolliet, Timothé; Andersen, Nils; Blanz, Thomas; Beaufort, Luc</p> <p>2014-11-01</p> <p>Proxy records of hydrologic variability in the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) have revealed wide-scale changes in past convective activity in response to orbital and suborbital climate forcings. However, attributing proxy responses to regional changes in WPWP hydrology versus local variations in precipitation requires independent records linking the terrestrial and marine realms. We present high-resolution stable isotope, UK'37 sea surface temperature, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning, and coccolithophore-derived paleoproductivity records covering the past 120 ka from International Marine Global Change (IMAGES) Program Core MD06-3075 (6°29'N, 125°50'E, water depth 1878 m), situated in the Davao Gulf on the southern side of Mindanao. XRF-derived log(Fe/Ca) records provide a robust proxy for runoff-driven sedimentary discharge from Mindanao, while past changes in local productivity are associated with variable freshwater runoff and stratification of the surface layer. Significant precessional-scale variability in sedimentary discharge occurred during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5, with peaks in discharge contemporaneous with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation minima. We attribute these changes to the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the WPWP together with variability in the strength of the Walker circulation acting on precessional timescales. Between 60 and 15 ka sedimentary discharge at Mindanao was muted, displaying little orbital- or millennial-scale variability, likely in response to weakened precessional insolation forcing and lower sea level driving increased subsidence of air masses over the exposed Sunda Shelf. These results highlight the high degree of local variability in the precipitation response to past climate changes in the WPWP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/pacific.shtml','SCIGOVWS'); return false;" href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/pacific.shtml"><span>CPC - Monitoring & Data: Pacific Island Climate Data</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.science.gov/aboutsearch.html">Science.gov Websites</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p>Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page <em>Climate</em> Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Pacific Islands <em>Climate</em> Data & Maps island stations. NOAA/ National Weather Service NOAA Center for Weather and <em>Climate</em> Prediction <em>Climate</em></p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014HESS...18.4965F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014HESS...18.4965F"><span>Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Funk, C.; Hoell, A.; Shukla, S.; Bladé, I.; Liebmann, B.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Husak, G.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>In eastern East Africa (the southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya and southern Somalia region), poor boreal spring (long wet season) rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers implement disaster risk reduction measures while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent East African droughts to a stronger Walker circulation, resulting from warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increased east-to-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the western Pacific, we show that the two dominant modes of East African boreal spring rainfall variability are tied to SST fluctuations in the western central Pacific and central Indian Ocean, respectively. Variations in these two rainfall modes can thus be predicted using two SST indices - the western Pacific gradient (WPG) and central Indian Ocean index (CIO), with our statistical forecasts exhibiting reasonable cross-validated skill (rcv ≈ 0.6). In contrast, the current generation of coupled forecast models show no skill during the long rains. Our SST indices also appear to capture most of the major recent drought events such as 2000, 2009 and 2011. Predictions based on these simple indices can be used to support regional forecasting efforts and land surface data assimilations to help inform early warning and guide climate outlooks.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS43A2010A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS43A2010A"><span>Anthropogenic Influence on the Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation in the South Pacific in the 20th Century</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Albrecht, F.; Pizarro, O.; Montecinos, A.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The subtropical ocean gyre in the South Pacific is a large scale wind-driven ocean circulation, including the Peru-Chile Current, the westward South Equatorial Current, the East Australian Current, and the eastward South Pacific Current. Large scale ocean circulations play an essential role in the climate of the Earth over long and short term time scales.In the recent years a spin-up of this circulation has been recognized analyzing observations of sea level, temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface temperature and wind. Until now it is not clear whether this spin-up is decadal variability or whether it is a long-term trend introduced by anthropogenic forcing. This study aims to analyze whether and how anthropogenic forcing influences the position and the strength of the gyre in the 20th century. To determine that, yearly means of different variables of an ensemble of CMIP5 models are analyzed. The experiments 'historical' and 'historicalNat' are examined. The 'historical' experiment simulates the climate of the 20th century and the 'historicalNat' experiment covers the same time period, but only includes natural forcings. Comparing the outcomes of these two experiments is supposed to give information about the anthropogenic influence on the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific.The main variable we analyze is sea level change. This is directly related to the gyre circulation. The center of the gyre is characterized by a high pressure zone (high sea level) and the temporal and spatial variability of the sea level height field gives information about changes in the gyre circulation. The CMIP5 databank includes steric and dynamic sea level changes. Steric sea level, that is the contribution of temperature and salinity of the water, describes the major contribution to regional sea level change with respect to the global mean. Density changes contract or expand the water, which also changes the sea surface height. This does not only occur at the surface, but at all layers in the ocean. Sea level change thus integrates ocean variability throughout the depth of the ocean. Sea level simulations of the different experiments are compared using long-term trends, multi-year anomalies and EOF-Analysis. Changes in temperature and salinity in the deeper ocean are used to describe the development of the gyre below the surface.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5240689','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5240689"><span>Climatic regulation of the neurotoxin domoic acid</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>McKibben, S. Morgaine; Peterson, William; Wood, A. Michelle; Trainer, Vera L.; Hunter, Matthew; White, Angelicque E.</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers and wildlife in coastal regions worldwide. Evidence of climatic regulation of domoic acid in shellfish over the past 20 y in the Northern California Current regime is shown. The timing of elevated domoic acid is strongly related to warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Oceanic Niño Index, an indicator of El Niño events. Ocean conditions in the northeast Pacific that are associated with warm phases of these indices, including changes in prevailing currents and advection of anomalously warm water masses onto the continental shelf, are hypothesized to contribute to increases in this toxin. We present an applied domoic acid risk assessment model for the US West Coast based on combined climatic and local variables. Evidence of regional- to basin-scale controls on domoic acid has not previously been presented. Our findings have implications in coastal zones worldwide that are affected by this toxin and are particularly relevant given the increased frequency of anomalously warm ocean conditions. PMID:28069959</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3651425','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3651425"><span>Origin of seasonal predictability for summer climate over the Northwestern Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lau, Ngar-Cheung; Vecchi, Gabriel A.</p> <p>2013-01-01</p> <p>Summer climate in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) displays large year-to-year variability, affecting densely populated Southeast and East Asia by impacting precipitation, temperature, and tropical cyclones. The Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern provides a crucial link of high predictability from the tropics to East Asia. Using coupled climate model experiments, we show that the PJ pattern is the atmospheric manifestation of an air–sea coupled mode spanning the Indo-NWP warm pool. The PJ pattern forces the Indian Ocean (IO) via a westward propagating atmospheric Rossby wave. In response, IO sea surface temperature feeds back and reinforces the PJ pattern via a tropospheric Kelvin wave. Ocean coupling increases both the amplitude and temporal persistence of the PJ pattern. Cross-correlation of ocean–atmospheric anomalies confirms the coupled nature of this PJIO mode. The ocean–atmosphere feedback explains why the last echoes of El Niño–Southern Oscillation are found in the IO-NWP in the form of the PJIO mode. We demonstrate that the PJIO mode is indeed highly predictable; a characteristic that can enable benefits to society. PMID:23610388</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42161','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42161"><span>Wildfire extent and severity correlated with annual streamflow distribution and timing in the Pacific Northwest, USA (1984-2005)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Zachary A. Holden; Charles H. Luce; Michael A. Crimmins; Penelope Morgan</p> <p>2011-01-01</p> <p>Climate change effects on wildfire occurrence have been attributed primarily to increases in temperatures causing earlier snowpack ablation and longer fire seasons. Variability in precipitation is also an important control on snowpack accumulation and, therefore, on timing of meltwater inputs. We evaluate the correlation of total area burned and area burned severely to...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29156091','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29156091"><span>Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Salvatteci, Renato; Field, David; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Baumgartner, Tim; Ferreira, Vicente; Ortlieb, Luc; Sifeddine, Abdel; Grados, Daniel; Bertrand, Arnaud</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large-scale forcing controls decadal-scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin-scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large-scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long-term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom-up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1677D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1677D"><span>Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and major drivers of variability between 1950 and 2005</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Dieppois, B.; Sidibe, M.; Mahe, G. M.; Paturel, J. E.; Anifowose, B. A.; Lawler, D.; Amoussou, E.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s, triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on water resources and food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we aim at investigating the key large-scale controls determining and modulating climate-river flows relationships at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2005. Using the first complete monthly streamflow data set (1950-2005) over western and central Africa, streamflow trend and variability are seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in other hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. In particular, the recent post-1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In addition, the time-evolution of river flows is shown to be primarily driven by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow, as determined using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns (such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which are together modulating the West African monsoon. Furthermore, influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, vegetation and land use cover, soil properties, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows have been examined. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current global to regional climate models to simulate such ranges of variability and understand regional hydroclimate, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H21G1506M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.H21G1506M"><span>Multi-year Droughts in California in the Last Two Decades</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Myoung, B.; Kafatos, M.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Multi-year droughts in California including the notorious 2013-2014 drought became serious problems recently, causing significant socio-economic damages. In the present study, focusing on the three multi-year droughts in California, i.e., 1999-2002, 2007-2009, and 2012-2014, during the recent two decades (1995-2014), we compared and investigated their characteristics of the atmosphere and the oceans. By positioning abnormally strong anticyclonic circulations at 500 hPa over the North Pacific, the droughts seem to start around strong La Niña years and continued or intensified until the year prior to an El Niño. While precipitation decreases in La Niña years have been well documented previously, the intensification of droughts in the later period has not. The Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) and correlation analyses suggest that, around strong La Niña years, the first EOF mode (EOF1) of the 500 hPa height is active, while the second EOF mode (EOF2) becomes active in moderate/weak La Nina years. It is also found that while EOF1 is sensitive to SST variability in the central Pacific which is associated with the major ENSO events, EOF2 is sensitive to that in the western/South Pacific. Relations to various climate variability other than ENSO, e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH), Pacific/North American (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are also examined.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA32A..08T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA32A..08T"><span>Building Training Curricula for Accelerating the Use of NOAA Climate Products and Tools</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Meyers, J. C.; Stevermer, A.; Abshire, W. E.; Beller-Simms, N.; Herring, D.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plays a leading role in U.S. intergovernmental efforts on the Climate Data Initiative and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT). CRT (http://toolkit.climate.gov/) is a valuable resource that provides tools, information, and subject matter expertise to decision makers in various sectors, such as agriculture, water resources and transportation, to help them build resilience to our changing climate. In order to make best use of the toolkit and all the resources within it, a training component is critical. The training section helps building users' understanding of the data, science, and impacts of climate variability and change. CRT identifies five steps in building resilience that includes use of appropriate tools to support decision makers depending on their needs. One tool that can be potentially integrated into CRT is NOAA's Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), which provides access to trusted NOAA data and scientifically-sound analysis techniques for doing regional and local climate studies on climate variability and climate change. However, in order for LCAT to be used effectively, we have found an iterative learning approach using specific examples to train users. For example, for LCAT application in analysis of water resources, we use existing CRT case studies for Arizona and Florida water supply users. The Florida example demonstrates primary sensitivity to climate variability impacts, whereas the Arizona example takes into account longer- term climate change. The types of analyses included in LCAT are time series analysis of local climate and the estimated rate of change in the local climate. It also provides a composite analysis to evaluate the relationship between local climate and climate variability events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American Index, and other modes of climate variability. This paper will describe the development of a training module for use of LCAT and its integration into CRT. An iterative approach was used that incorporates specific examples of decision making while working with subject matter experts within the water supply community. The recommended strategy is to use a "stepping stone" learning structure to build users knowledge of best practices for use of LCAT.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1671W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43D1671W"><span>Climate controls on streamflow variability in the Missouri River Basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wise, E.; Woodhouse, C. A.; McCabe, G. J., Jr.; Pederson, G. T.; St-Jacques, J. M.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The Missouri River's hydroclimatic variability presents a challenge for water managers, who must balance many competing demands on the system. Water resources in the Missouri River Basin (MRB) have increasingly been challenged by the droughts and floods that have occurred over the past several decades and the potential future exacerbation of these extremes by climate change. Here, we use observed and modeled hydroclimatic data and estimated natural flow records to describe the climatic controls on streamflow in the upper and lower portions of the MRB, examine atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with high- and low-flow years, and investigate trends in climate and streamflow over the instrumental period. Results indicate that the two main source regions for total outflow, in the uppermost and lowermost parts of the basin, are under the influence of very different sets of climatic controls. Winter precipitation, impacted by changes in zonal versus meridional flow from the Pacific Ocean, as well as spring precipitation and temperature, play a key role in surface water supply variability in the upper basin. Lower basin flow is significantly correlated with precipitation in late spring and early summer, indicative of Atlantic-influenced circulation variability affecting the flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The upper basin, with decreasing snowpack and streamflow and warming spring temperatures, will be less likely to provide important flow supplements to the lower basin in the future.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70029010','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70029010"><span>Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.</p> <p>2005-01-01</p> <p>The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active"><span>22</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_22 --> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PNAS..113.3476N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PNAS..113.3476N"><span>Galápagos hydroclimate of the Common Era from paired microalgal and mangrove biomarker 2H/1H values</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nelson, Daniel B.; Sachs, Julian P.</p> <p>2016-03-01</p> <p>Tropical maritime precipitation affects global atmospheric circulation, influencing storm tracks and the size and location of subtropical deserts. Paleoclimate evidence suggests centuries-long changes in rainfall in the tropical Pacific over the past 2,000 y, but these remain poorly characterized across most of the ocean where long, continuous proxy records capable of resolving decadal-to-centennial climate changes are still virtually nonexistent despite substantial efforts to develop them. Here we apply a new climate proxy based on paired hydrogen isotope ratios from microalgal and mangrove-derived sedimentary lipids in the Galápagos to reconstruct maritime precipitation changes during the Common Era. We show that increased rainfall during the Little Ice Age (LIA) (∼1400-1850 CE) was likely caused by a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and that this shift occurred later than previously recognized, coeval with dynamically linked precipitation changes in South America and the western tropical Pacific. Before the LIA, we show that drier conditions at the onset of the Medieval Warm Period (∼800-1300 CE) and wetter conditions ca. 2 ka were caused by changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Collectively, the large natural variations in tropical rainfall we detect, each linked to a multicentury perturbation of either ENSO-like variability or the ITCZ, imply a high sensitivity of tropical Pacific rainfall to climate forcings.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19990070929&hterms=manpower+results&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dmanpower%2Bresults','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19990070929&hterms=manpower+results&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D70%26Ntt%3Dmanpower%2Bresults"><span>GCM Hindcasts for SST Forced Climate Variability over Agriculturally Intensive Regions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Druyan, Leonard M.; Shah, Kathryn P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Rind, David</p> <p>1998-01-01</p> <p>The ability to forecast seasonal climate is of great practical interest. One of the most obvious benefits would be agriculture, for which various preparations (planting, machinery, irrigation, manpower) would be enabled. The expectation of being able to make such forecasts far enough in advance (on the order of 9 months) hinges on components of the system with the longest persistence or predictability. The mixed results of El Nino forecasts has raised the hope that tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) fall into this category. For agriculturally-relevant forecasts to be made, and utilized, requires several conditions. The SST in the regions that affect agricultural areas must be forecast successfully, many months in advance. The climate response to such sea surface temperatures must then be ascertained, either through the use of historical empirical studies or models (e.g., GCMS). For practical applications, the agricultural production must be strongly influenced by climate, and farmers on either the local level or through commercial concerns must be able to adjust to using such forecasts. In a continuing series of papers, we will explore each of these components. This article concerns the question of utilizing SST to forecast the climate in several regions of agricultural production. We optimize the possibility of doing so successfully by using observed SST in a hindcast mode (i.e., a perfect forecast), and we also use the globally observed values (rather than just those from the tropical Pacific, for which predictability has been shown). This then is the ideal situation; in subsequent papers we will explore degrading the results by using only tropical Pacific SSTs, and then using only</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030638','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70030638"><span>Radiolaria and pollen records from 0 to 50 ka at ODP Site 1233: Continental and marine climate records from the Southeast Pacific</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Pisias, N.G.; Heusser, L.; Heusser, C.; Hostetler, S.W.; Mix, A.C.; Weber, M.</p> <p>2006-01-01</p> <p>Site 1233 drilled during Leg 202 of the Ocean Drilling Program provides a detailed record of marine and continental climate change in the Southeast Pacific and South American continent. Splits from over 500 samples taken at 20 cm intervals for quantitative analysis of radiolarian and pollen populations yield a temporal resolution of 200-400 years. In each sample, 39 pollen taxa and 40 radiolarian species and genera were evaluated. Age control is provided by 25 AMS 14C dates [Lamy, F., Kaiser, J., Ninnemann, U., Hebbeln, D., Arz, H.W., Stoner, J., 2004. Science 304, 1959-1962]. Multivariate statistical analyses of these data allow us to conclude the following: (1) During the past 50 ka, the region of the central Chile coast is not directly influenced by polar water from the Antarctic region. (2) Changes in ocean conditions off central Chile during this time interval primarily reflect north-south shifts in the position of the South Pacific transition zone. (3) Changes in Chilean vegetation reflect comparable latitudinal shifts in precipitation and the position of the southern westerlies. (4) The first canonical variate of radiolarian and pollen records extracted from Site 1233 are remarkably similar to each other as well as to temperature records from the Antarctic, which suggests that marine and continental climate variability in the region is tightly coupled at periods longer than 3000 years. (5) The phase coupling of these climate records, which lead variations of continental erosion based on iron abundance at the same site, are consistent with a hypothesis that erosion is linked to relatively long (i.e, few thousand years) response times of the Patagonian ice sheet, and thus is not a direct indicator of regional climate. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC21G..01T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMGC21G..01T"><span>Climatic Teleconnections Recorded By Tropical Mountain Glaciers</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Thompson, L. G.; Permana, D.; Mosley-Thompson, E.; Davis, M. E.</p> <p>2014-12-01</p> <p>Information from ice cores from the world's highest mountains in the Tropics demonstrates both local climate variability and a high degree of teleconnectivity across the Pacific basin. Here we examine recently recovered ice core records from glaciers near Puncak Jaya in Papua, Indonesia, which lie on the highest peak between the Himalayas and the South American Andes. These glaciers are located on the western side of the Tropical Pacific warm pool, which is the "center of action" for interannual climate variability dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO either directly or indirectly affects most regions of Earth and their populations. In 2010, two ice cores measuring 32.13 m and 31.25 m were recovered to bedrock from the East Northwall Firn ice field. Both have been analyzed in high resolution (~3 cm sample length, 1156 and 1606 samples, respectively) for stable isotopes, dust, major ions and tritium concentrations. To better understand the controls on the oxygen isotopic (δ18 O) signal for this region, daily rainfall samples were collected between January 2013 and February 2014 at five weather stations over a distance of ~90 km ranging from 9 meters above sea level (masl) on the southern coast up to 3945 masl. The calculated isotopic lapse rate for this region is 0.24 ‰/100m. Papua, Indonesian ice core records are compared to ice core records from Dasuopu Glacier in the central Himalayas and from Quelccaya, Huascarán, Hualcán and Coropuna ice fields in the tropical Andes of Peru on the eastern side of the Pacific Ocean. The composite of the annual isotopic time series from these cores is significantly (R2 =0.53) related to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reflecting the strong linkage between tropical Pacific SSTs associated with ENSO and tropospheric temperatures in the low latitudes. New data on the already well-documented concomitant loss of ice on Quelccaya, Kilimanjaro in eastern Africa and the ice fields near Puncak Jaya reinforce the hypothesis that large-scale tropical processes dominate recent tropical glacier retreat. The observed widespread melting of glaciers is consistent with model predictions of a vertical amplification of temperature, which is documented by increasing isotopic enrichment in ice cores from high elevation glaciers throughout the Tropics.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008ERL.....3.4008T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008ERL.....3.4008T"><span>Spatio-temporal variability of NDVI-precipitation over southernmost South America: possible linkages between climate signals and epidemics</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Tourre, Y. M.; Jarlan, L.; Lacaux, J.-P.; Rotela, C. H.; Lafaye, M.</p> <p>2008-10-01</p> <p>Climate-environment variability affects the rates of incidence of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases and is possibly associated with epidemics outbreaks. Over southernmost South America the joint spatio-temporal evolution of climate-environment is analyzed for the 1982-2004 period. Detailed mapping of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall variability are then compared to zones with preliminary epidemiological reports. A significant quasi-biennial signal (2.2- to 2.4-year periods, or QB) for joint NDVI-rainfall variability is revealed. From rotated EOFs, dominant NDVI patterns are partitioned according to their lead frequencies: (1) the 'QB group' (2.1-to 3-year periods) includes six modes over southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern-central Argentina (two modes), the southern Paraguay-northern Argentina border, and the Santa Cruz Province; (2) the QB1 (2.4- to 3-year periods) + quasi-quadrennial (QQ) mode over the Misiones Province; and (3) the QB2 (2.1- to 2.5-year periods) + QQ + inter-annual (IA) (3- to 7-year periods) two modes over south-eastern Argentina. Modes within the 'QB group' are positively correlated with global climate signals and SST. The Uruguayan mode is correlated with global ENSO (8-month lag) whilst the southern Entre-Rios/northern Buenos Aires provinces are correlated with central equatorial Pacific SSTs (3-month lag). The Santa Cruz (Patagonia) Province is most correlated with the Pacific South America (PSA) index and SST patterns (3-month lag) along the Antarctica circumpolar current. The spatial distribution of lead NDVI modes includes the Formosa, Misiones, Chaco and Buenos Aires provinces among others, known for being prone to vector-borne epidemics such as dengue fever, malaria, leishmaniasis (American cutaneous leishmaniasis or ACL), hantivirus, chagas and Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF). Some provinces also correspond to regions where lead NDVI PCs' modes are associated with high-frequency climate signals such as the quasi-biennial oscillation in northwest Argentina. The joint preliminary results (climate-environment-public health reports) presented here for the first time are meant: (1) to contribute to a better understanding of climate-environment-epidemics process-based and modeling studies and (2) to facilitate, in the long run, the implementation of local and regional health early warning systems (HEWS) over southernmost South America. The latter is becoming crucial with ever-increasing migration, urban sprawl (re-emergence of dengue fever epidemics since the late 1990s), all embedded in a climate change context.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007975','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150007975"><span>The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a></p> <p>Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hye-Mi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Yoo, Jin Ho</p> <p>2014-01-01</p> <p>This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GMD.....9.1725H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016GMD.....9.1725H"><span>Trans-Pacific transport and evolution of aerosols: evaluation of quasi-global WRF-Chem simulation with multiple observations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hu, Zhiyuan; Zhao, Chun; Huang, Jianping; Leung, L. Ruby; Qian, Yun; Yu, Hongbin; Huang, Lei; Kalashnikova, Olga V.</p> <p>2016-05-01</p> <p>A fully coupled meteorology-chemistry model (WRF-Chem, the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry) has been configured to conduct quasi-global simulation for 5 years (2010-2014) and evaluated with multiple observation data sets for the first time. The evaluation focuses on the simulation over the trans-Pacific transport region using various reanalysis and observational data sets for meteorological fields and aerosol properties. The simulation generally captures the overall spatial and seasonal variability of satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorbing AOD (AAOD) over the Pacific that is determined by the outflow of pollutants and dust and the emissions of marine aerosols. The assessment of simulated extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) indicates that the model generally reproduces the variability of aerosol size distributions as seen by satellites. In addition, the vertical profile of aerosol extinction and its seasonality over the Pacific are also well simulated. The difference between the simulation and satellite retrievals can be mainly attributed to model biases in estimating marine aerosol emissions as well as the satellite sampling and retrieval uncertainties. Compared with the surface measurements over the western USA, the model reasonably simulates the observed magnitude and seasonality of dust, sulfate, and nitrate surface concentrations, but significantly underestimates the peak surface concentrations of carbonaceous aerosol likely due to model biases in the spatial and temporal variability of biomass burning emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production. A sensitivity simulation shows that the trans-Pacific transported dust, sulfate, and nitrate can make significant contribution to surface concentrations over the rural areas of the western USA, while the peaks of carbonaceous aerosol surface concentrations are dominated by the North American emissions. Both the retrievals and simulation show small interannual variability of aerosol characteristics for 2010-2014 averaged over three Pacific sub-regions. The evaluation in this study demonstrates that the WRF-Chem quasi-global simulation can be used for investigating trans-Pacific transport of aerosols and providing reasonable inflow chemical boundaries for the western USA, allowing one to further understand the impact of transported pollutants on the regional air quality and climate with high-resolution nested regional modeling.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4438Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4438Y"><span>Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry</p> <p>2018-05-01</p> <p>Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..870F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..870F"><span>The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai`i</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Frazier, Abby G.; Elison Timm, Oliver; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Diaz, Henry F.</p> <p>2017-11-01</p> <p>Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai`i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for these long-term trends. Gridded seasonal rainfall from 1920 to 2012 is used to perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The leading EOF components are correlated with three indices of natural climate variations (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Pacific North American (PNA)), and multiple linear regression (MLR) is used to model the leading components with climate indices. PNA is the dominant mode of wet season (November-April) variability, while ENSO is most significant in the dry season (May-October). To assess whether there is an anthropogenic influence on rainfall, two methods are used: a linear trend term is included in the MLR, and pattern correlation coefficients (PCC) are calculated between recent rainfall trends and future changes in rainfall projected by downscaling methods. PCC results indicate that recent observed rainfall trends in the wet season are positively correlated with future expected changes in rainfall, while dry season PCC results do not show a clear pattern. The MLR results, however, show that the trend term adds significantly to model skill only in the dry season. Overall, MLR and PCC results give weak and inconclusive evidence for detection of anthropogenic signals in the observed rainfall trends.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H41I1565J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H41I1565J"><span>Using a predictive model to evaluate spatiotemporal variability in streamflow permanence across the Pacific Northwest region</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jaeger, K. L.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability Of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS-based empirical model that provides predictions of the annual probability of a stream channel having year-round flow (Streamflow permanence probability; SPP) for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, western Montana). The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions, and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Prediction locations correspond to the channel network consistent with the National Hydrography Dataset stream grid and are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform (https://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/). In snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative predictor variable was mean upstream snow water equivalent on May 1, which highlights the influence of late spring snow cover for supporting streamflow in mountain river networks. In non-snowmelt-driven systems, the most informative variable was mean annual precipitation. Streamflow permanence probabilities varied across the study area by geography and from year-to-year. Notably lower SPP corresponded to the climatically drier subregions of the study area. Higher SPP were concentrated in coastal and higher elevation mountain regions. In addition, SPP appeared to trend with average hydroclimatic conditions, which were also geographically coherent. The year-to-year variability lends support for the growing recognition of the spatiotemporal dynamism of streamflow permanence. An analysis of three focus basins located in contrasting geographical and hydroclimatic settings demonstrates differences in the sensitivity of streamflow permanence to antecedent climate conditions as a function of geography. Consequently, results suggest that PROSPER model can be a useful tool to evaluate regions of the landscape that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for targeted management efforts to protect critical reaches.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..167D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..167D"><span>Evaluating climatic response to external radiative forcing during the late Miocene to early Pliocene: New perspectives from eastern equatorial Pacific (IODP U1338) and North Atlantic (ODP 982) locations</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Drury, Anna Joy; John, Cédric M.; Shevenell, Amelia E.</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Orbital-scale climate variability during the latest Miocene-early Pliocene is poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution records spanning 8.0-3.5 Ma, which resolve all orbital cycles. Assessing this variability improves understanding of how Earth's system sensitivity to insolation evolves and provides insight into the factors driving the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC) and the Late Miocene Carbon Isotope Shift (LMCIS). New high-resolution benthic foraminiferal Cibicidoides mundulus δ18O and δ13C records from equatorial Pacific International Ocean Drilling Program Site U1338 are correlated to North Atlantic Ocean Drilling Program Site 982 to obtain a global perspective. Four long-term benthic δ18O variations are identified: the Tortonian-Messinian, Miocene-Pliocene, and Early-Pliocene Oxygen Isotope Lows (8-7, 5.9-4.9, and 4.8-3.5 Ma) and the Messinian Oxygen Isotope High (MOH; 7-5.9 Ma). Obliquity-paced variability dominates throughout, except during the MOH. Eleven new orbital-scale isotopic stages are identified between 7.4 and 7.1 Ma. Cryosphere and carbon cycle sensitivities, estimated from δ18O and δ13C variability, suggest a weak cryosphere-carbon cycle coupling. The MSC termination coincided with moderate cryosphere sensitivity and reduced global ice sheets. The LMCIS coincided with reduced carbon cycle sensitivity, suggesting a driving force independent of insolation changes. The response of the cryosphere and carbon cycle to obliquity forcing is established, defined as Earth System Response (ESR). Observations reveal that two late Miocene-early Pliocene climate states existed. The first is a prevailing dynamic state with moderate ESR and obliquity-driven Antarctic ice variations, associated with reduced global ice volumes. The second is a stable state, which occurred during the MOH, with reduced ESR and lower obliquity-driven variability, associated with expanded global ice volumes.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24415466','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24415466"><span>The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L</p> <p>2014-07-01</p> <p>Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2016/1102/ofr20161102.pdf','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2016/1102/ofr20161102.pdf"><span>Report from the workshop on climate downscaling and its application in high Hawaiian Islands, September 16–17, 2015</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Helweg, David A.; Keener, Victoria; Burgett, Jeff M.</p> <p>2016-07-14</p> <p>In the subtropical and tropical Pacific islands, changing climate is predicted to influence precipitation and freshwater availability, and thus is predicted to impact ecosystems goods and services available to ecosystems and human communities. The small size of high Hawaiian Islands, plus their complex microlandscapes, require downscaling of global climate models to provide future projections of greater skill and spatial resolution. Two different climate modeling approaches (physics-based dynamical downscaling and statistics-based downscaling) have produced dissimilar projections. Because of these disparities, natural resource managers and decision makers have low confidence in using the modeling results and are therefore are unwilling to include climate-related projections in their decisions. In September 2015, the Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC), and the Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program convened a 2-day facilitated workshop in which the two modeling teams, plus key model users and resource managers, were brought together for a comparison of the two approaches, culminating with a discussion of how to provide predictions that are useable by resource managers. The proceedings, discussions, and outcomes of this Workshop are summarized in this Open-File Report.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC14E2101K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUOSPC14E2101K"><span>Influence of tropical atmospheric variability on Weddell Sea deep water convection</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kleppin, H.</p> <p>2016-02-01</p> <p>Climate reconstructions from ice core records in Greenland and Antarctica have revealed a series of abrupt climate transitions, showing a distinct relationship between northern and southern hemisphere climate during the last glacial period. The recent ice core records from West Antarctica (WAIS) point towards an atmospheric teleconnection as a possible trigger for the interhemispheric climate variability (Markle et al., 2015). An unforced simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) reveals Greenland warming and cooling events, caused by stochastic atmospheric forcing, that resemble Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in pattern and magnitude (Kleppin et al., 2015). Anti-phased temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere are small in magnitude and have a spatially varying pattern. We argue that both north and south high latitude climate variability is triggered by changes in tropical atmospheric deep convection in the western tropical Pacific. The atmospheric wave guide provides a fast communication pathway connecting the deep tropics and the polar regions. In the Southern Hemisphere this is manifested as a distinct pressure pattern over West Antarctica. These altered atmospheric surface conditions over the convective region can lead to destabilization of the water column and thus to convective overturning in the Weddell Sea. However, opposed to what is seen in the Northern Hemisphere no centennial scale variability can establish, due to the absence of a strong feedback mechanism between ocean, atmosphere and sea ice. Kleppin, H., Jochum, M., Otto-Bliesner, B., Shields, C. A., & Yeager, S. (2015). Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing as a Cause of Greenland Climate Transitions. Journal of Climate, (2015). Markle, B. and Coauthors (2015, April). Atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and high southern latitudes during millennial climate change. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 17, p. 2569).</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70178040','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70178040"><span>The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie-chicken abundance</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Ross, Beth E.; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP32B..04M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP32B..04M"><span>The Interfaces Between Historical, Paleo-, and Modern Climatology</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mock, C. J.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>Historical climatology, commonly defined as the study of reconstructing past climates from documentary and early instrumental data, has routinely utilized data within the last several hundred years down to sub-daily temporal resolution prior to the advent of "modern" instrumental records beginning in the late 19th and 20th centuries. Historical climate reconstruction methods generally share similar aspects conducted in both paleoclimate reconstruction and modern climatology, given the need to quantify, calibrate, and conduct careful data quality assessments. Although some studies have integrated historical climatic studies with other high resolution paleoclimatic proxies, very few efforts have integrated historical data with modern "systematic" climate networks to further examine spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability. This presentation describes historical climate examples of how such data can be integrated within modern climate timescales, including examples of documentary data on tropical cyclones from the Western Pacific and Atlantic Basins, colonial records from Belize and Constantinople, ship logbooks in the Western Arctic, plantation diaries from the American Southeast, and newspaper data from the Fiji Islands and Bermuda. Some results include a unique wet period in Belize and active tropical cyclone periods in the Western and South Pacific in the early 20th century - both are not reflected in conventional modern climate datasets. Documentary data examples demonstrate high feasibility in further understanding extreme weather events at daily timeframes such as false spring/killing frost episodes and hydrological extremes in southeastern North America. Recent unique efforts also involve community participation, secondary education, and web- based volunteer efforts to digitize and archive historical weather and climate information.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JMS...153...55L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016JMS...153...55L"><span>Natural variability of marine ecosystems inferred from a coupled climate to ecosystem simulation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Le Mézo, Priscilla; Lefort, Stelly; Séférian, Roland; Aumont, Olivier; Maury, Olivier; Murtugudde, Raghu; Bopp, Laurent</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>This modeling study analyzes the simulated natural variability of pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our model system includes a global Earth System Model (IPSL-CM5A-LR), the biogeochemical model PISCES and the ecosystem model APECOSM that simulates upper trophic level organisms using a size-based approach and three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, migratory and mesopelagic). Analyzing an idealized (e.g., no anthropogenic forcing) 300-yr long pre-industrial simulation, we find that low and high frequency variability is dominant for the large and small organisms, respectively. Our model shows that the size-range exhibiting the largest variability at a given frequency, defined as the resonant range, also depends on the community. At a given frequency, the resonant range of the epipelagic community includes larger organisms than that of the migratory community and similarly, the latter includes larger organisms than the resonant range of the mesopelagic community. This study shows that the simulated temporal variability of marine pelagic organisms' abundance is not only influenced by natural climate fluctuations but also by the structure of the pelagic community. As a consequence, the size- and community-dependent response of marine ecosystems to climate variability could impact the sustainability of fisheries in a warming world.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4177G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.4177G"><span>Vadose zone controls on damping of climate-induced transient recharge fluxes in U.S. agroecosystems</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Gurdak, Jason</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Understanding the physical processes in the vadose zone that link climate variability with transient recharge fluxes has particular relevance for the sustainability of groundwater-supported irrigated agriculture and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has well-documented influence on precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, infiltration flux, and can augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Here the behavior and damping depth of climate-induced transient water flux in the vadose zone is explored. The damping depth is the depth in the vadose zone that the flux variation damps to 5% of the land surface variation. Steady-state recharge occurs when the damping depth is above the water table, and transient recharge occurs when the damping depth is below the water table. Findings are presented from major agroecosystems of the United States (U.S.), including the High Plains, Central Valley, California Coastal Basin, and Mississippi Embayment aquifer systems. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used to identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). SSA results indicate that nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. Results from HYDRUS-1D simulations indicate that transient water flux through the vadose zone are controlled by highly nonlinear interactions between mean infiltration flux and infiltration period related to the modes of climate variability and the local soil textures, layering, and depth to the water table. Simulation results for homogeneous profiles generally show that shorter-period climate oscillations, smaller mean fluxes, and finer-grained soil textures generally produce damping depths closer to land surface. Simulation results for layered soil textures indicate more complex responses in the damping depth, including the finding that finer-textured layers in a coarser soil profile generally result in damping depths closer to land surface, while coarser-textured layers in coarser soil profile result in damping depths deeper in the vadose zone. Findings from this study improve understanding of how vadose zone properties influences transient recharge flux and damp climate variability signals in groundwater systems, and have important implications for sustainable management of groundwater resources and coupled agroecosystems under future climate variability and change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.2845F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.2845F"><span>Modes of interannual variability in northern hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation in CMIP5 models: evaluation, projection and role of external forcing</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Ying, Kairan; Grainger, Simon; Zheng, Xiaogu</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>Models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset are evaluated for their ability to simulate the dominant slow modes of interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation 500 hPa geopotential height in the twentieth century. A multi-model ensemble of the best 13 models has then been used to identify the leading modes of interannual variability in components related to (1) intraseasonal processes; (2) slowly-varying internal dynamics; and (3) the slowly-varying response to external changes in radiative forcing. Modes in the intraseasonal component are related to intraseasonal variability in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and North American, and Eurasian regions and are little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The leading modes in the slow-internal component are related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Pacific North American or Tropical Northern Hemisphere teleconnection, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Western Pacific teleconnection pattern. While the structure of these slow-internal modes is little affected by the larger radiative forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario, their explained variance increases in the warmer climate. The leading mode in the slow-external component has a significant trend and is shown to be related predominantly to the climate change trend in the well mixed greenhouse gas concentration during the historical period. This mode is associated with increasing height in the 500 hPa pressure level. A secondary influence on this mode is the radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols associated with volcanic eruptions. The second slow-external mode is shown to be also related to radiative forcing due to stratospheric aerosols. Under RCP8.5 there is only one slow-external mode related to greenhouse gas forcing with a trend over four times the historical trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B53F..01S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B53F..01S"><span>Climate as a driver of continent-wide irruptions in boreal seed-eating birds (Invited)</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Strong, C.; Zuckerberg, B.; Betancourt, J. L.</p> <p>2013-12-01</p> <p>Boreal seed-eating birds regularly breed and overwinter throughout Canada and Alaska, but every few years these species demonstrate impressive irruptive migrations out of the boreal forest and into more southerly regions. It is thought that irruptive migrations are inversely dependent on a circumboreally synchronized pattern of seed crop fluctuations in boreal trees; seed-eating boreal birds stay in the north when food is plentiful, but sojourn south when food is scarce. Because both seed production and bird irruptions are characterized by periodicity ranging from biennial to decadal cycles, there is a strong possibility that these ecological phenomena are driven by climate variability. Using over twenty years of data from Project FeederWatch (a national citizen science project), we found that 'super irruptions' are correlated with continent-wide irruptive events in pine siskin population, and that these irruptions are associated with multi-decadal climate variability of Pacific origin. We also investigate how climate variability may influence the distribution of boreal bird species across different regions of North America during winter, and evaluate results in the context of limited banding data to assess possible geographic pathways of irruptions.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active"><span>23</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_23 --> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002ClDy...19..181P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002ClDy...19..181P"><span>Ocean angular momentum signals in a climate model and implications for Earth rotation</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Ponte, R. M.; Rajamony, J.; Gregory, J. M.</p> <p>2002-03-01</p> <p>Estimates of ocean angular momentum (OAM) provide an integrated measure of variability in ocean circulation and mass fields and can be directly related to observed changes in Earth rotation. We use output from a climate model to calculate 240 years of 3-monthly OAM values (two equatorial terms L1 and L2, related to polar motion or wobble, and axial term L3, related to length of day variations) representing the period 1860-2100. Control and forced runs permit the study of the effects of natural and anthropogenically forced climate variability on OAM. All OAM components exhibit a clear annual cycle, with large decadal modulations in amplitude, and also longer period fluctuations, all associated with natural climate variability in the model. Anthropogenically induced signals, inferred from the differences between forced and control runs, include an upward trend in L3, related to inhomogeneous ocean warming and increases in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a significantly weaker seasonal cycle in L2 in the second half of the record, related primarily to changes in seasonal bottom pressure variability in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. Variability in mass fields is in general more important to OAM signals than changes in circulation at the seasonal and longer periods analyzed. Relation of OAM signals to changes in surface atmospheric forcing are discussed. The important role of the oceans as an excitation source for the annual, Chandler and Markowitz wobbles, is confirmed. Natural climate variability in OAM and related excitation is likely to measurably affect the Earth rotation, but anthropogenically induced effects are comparatively weak.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26645102','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26645102"><span>Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707-1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5089897','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5089897"><span>Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707–1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 PMID:26645102</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122.6936L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017JGRC..122.6936L"><span>Coral record of variability in the upstream Kuroshio Current during 1953-2004</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Li, Xiaohua; Liu, Yi; Hsin, Yi-Chia; Liu, Weiguo; Shi, Zhengguo; Chiang, Hong-Wei; Shen, Chuan-Chou</p> <p>2017-08-01</p> <p>The Kuroshio Current (KC), one of the most important western boundary currents in the North Pacific Ocean, strongly affects regional hydroclimate in East Asia and upper ocean thermal structure. Limited by few on-site observations, the responses of the KC to regional and remote climate forcings are still poorly understood. Here we use monthly coral δ18O data to reconstruct a KC transport record with annual to interannual resolution for the interval 1953-2004. The field site is located in southern Taiwan on the western flank of the upstream KC. Increased (reduced) KC transport would generate strong (weak) upwelling, resulting in relatively high (low) local coral δ18O. The upstream KC transport and downstream transport, off Tatsukushi Bay, Japan, covary on interannual and decadal time scales. This suggests common forcings, such as meridional drift of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation, or zonal climatic oscillations in the Pacific. The intensities of KC transport off southeastern and northeastern Taiwan are in phase before 1990 and antiphase after 1990. This difference may be due to a poleward shift of the subtropical western boundary current as a response to global warming.<abstract type="synopsis"><title type="main">Plain Language SummaryThe connection between climate and oceanic circulation has long been recognized, particularly with regard to western boundary currents such as the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio Current (KC). These systems play a crucial role in transferring solar energy from the subtropical regions to the poles. As we begin to experience the impacts of global climate change, it is critical that we understand the affect global change has on variability leading to significant changes in the structure and heat transport of such currents. Current knowledge of the KC is limited to observations over individual 10 year periods or to paleorecords of very low resolution (one sample per roughly 1000 years). Neither data set allows for a detailed understanding of the natural variability of the KC, nor does it allow for a thorough investigation of potential driving forces in ocean circulation, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we reconstruct a long-term record of KC transport since 1950 using high-resolution coral records from southeastern Taiwan, to provide new insights into KC dynamics under the current global warming trend.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910934R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1910934R"><span>Development of a drought forecasting model for the Asia-Pacific region using remote sensing and climate data: Focusing on Indonesia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Rhee, Jinyoung; Kim, Gayoung; Im, Jungho</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Three regions of Indonesia with different rainfall characteristics were chosen to develop drought forecast models based on machine learning. The 6-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI6) was selected as the target variable. The models' forecast skill was compared to the skill of long-range climate forecast models in terms of drought accuracy and regression mean absolute error (MAE). Indonesian droughts are known to be related to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability despite of regional differences as well as monsoon, local sea surface temperature (SST), other large-scale atmosphere-ocean interactions such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and local factors including topography and elevation. Machine learning models are thus to enhance drought forecast skill by combining local and remote SST and remote sensing information reflecting initial drought conditions to the long-range climate forecast model results. A total of 126 machine learning models were developed for the three regions of West Java (JB), West Sumatra (SB), and Gorontalo (GO) and six long-range climate forecast models of MSC_CanCM3, MSC_CanCM4, NCEP, NASA, PNU, POAMA as well as one climatology model based on remote sensing precipitation data, and 1 to 6-month lead times. When compared the results between the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models, West Java and Gorontalo regions showed similar characteristics in terms of drought accuracy. Drought accuracy of the long-range climate forecast models were generally higher than the machine learning models with short lead times but the opposite appeared for longer lead times. For West Sumatra, however, the machine learning models and the long-range climate forecast models showed similar drought accuracy. The machine learning models showed smaller regression errors for all three regions especially with longer lead times. Among the three regions, the machine learning models developed for Gorontalo showed the highest drought accuracy and the lowest regression error. West Java showed higher drought accuracy compared to West Sumatra, while West Sumatra showed lower regression error compared to West Java. The lower error in West Sumatra may be because of the smaller sample size used for training and evaluation for the region. Regional differences of forecast skill are determined by the effect of ENSO and the following forecast skill of the long-range climate forecast models. While shown somewhat high in West Sumatra, relative importance of remote sensing variables was mostly low in most cases. High importance of the variables based on long-range climate forecast models indicates that the forecast skill of the machine learning models are mostly determined by the forecast skill of the climate models.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018IJMPC..2950033G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018IJMPC..2950033G"><span>Analysis of the structure of climate networks under El Niño and La Niña conditions</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Graciosa, Juan Carlos; Pastor, Marissa</p> <p></p> <p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of natural climate variability and is characterized by anomalies in the sea surface temperatures (SST) over the tropical Pacific ocean. It has three phases: neutral, a warming phase or El Niño, and a cooling phase called La Niña. In this research, we modeled the climate under the three phases as a network and characterized its properties. We utilized the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) daily surface temperature reanalysis data from January 1950 to December 2016. A network associated to a month was created using the temperature spanning from the previous month to the succeeding month, for a total of three months worth of data for each network. Each site of the included data was a potential node in the network and the existence of links were determined by the strength of their relationship, which was based on mutual information. Interestingly, we found that climate networks exhibit small-world properties and these are found to be more prominent from October to April, coinciding with observations that El Niño occurrences peak from December to March. During these months, the temperature of a relatively large part of the Pacific ocean and its surrounding areas increase and the anomaly values become synchronized. This synchronization in the temperature anomalies forms links around the Pacific, increasing the clustering in the region and in effect, that of the entire network.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP43D..02E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMPP43D..02E"><span>Patterns of climate variability in the western Equatorial Pacific during the Common Era</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Esswein, K. L.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.; Oppo, D.</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>The distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) has major implications for climate variability in the tropical Pacific and beyond. The spatial and temporal patterns of SST and salinity affect the complex relationships among the prevailing tropical climate systems primarily, the Australian-Asian Monsoon and El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as inter-ocean surface circulation associated with the Indonesian throughflow (ITF). Reconstructing the variability of the WPWP surface hydrography during the most recent climate anomalies of the Common Era will provide insights into modern climate change in this region. Previous studies suggest SST cooling of ~1 °C during the Little Ice Age (LIA) 1550-1850 CE and close to modern SST during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) 950-1100 CE. Further, these studies suggest enhanced (decreased) precipitation over Indonesia during the LIA (MWP) consistent with reconstructions of migration patterns of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) as recorded in speleothem records in China. The available ocean records are, however, limited to the Makassar Strait. Here we present three new Mg/Ca-SST records from multi- and gravity cores in the northern Makassar, Bali Basin and Flores in the Indonesian Seas. These records allow us to validate previous results from the Makassar Strait and to constrain the geographic extent of past temperature and salinity changes within the WPWP. By using reconstructions of the stable oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of seawater derived from planktonic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and δ18O we further assess the complex interactions between the influence of the meridional systems (ITCZ) and the zonal effects of ENSO on the regional hydrology. Chronological control for both records is derived from the presence of ash layers of known historical eruptions. Exceptionally high sedimentation rates of 100 cm per 1000 years further allow a comparison between our new SST records with the instrumental record and provide a decadal scale resolution over the past two millennia. Our results from both the Bali Basin and Flores sea validate previous observations from the Makassar Strait indicating that modern SST in the WPWP are about 1 °C higher than during the LIA but do not exceed SSTs recorded during the MWP. These recent temperature trends in the WPWP are thus unlike the modern 'hockey-stick-like' warming trend observed mostly in Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions. Further our results support that the mode of SST change found in the Makassar Straits is indeed representative of the whole WPWP.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27524928','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27524928"><span>Associations between malaria and local and global climate variability in five regions in Papua New Guinea.</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a></p> <p>Imai, Chisato; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Eum, Jin-Hee; Kim, Clara T; Kim, Jin Seob; Kim, Yoonhee; Behera, Swadhin K; Hassan, Mohd Nasir; Nealon, Joshua; Chung, Hyenmi; Hashizume, Masahiro</p> <p>2016-01-01</p> <p>Malaria is a significant public health issue in Papua New Guinea (PNG) as the burden is among the highest in Asia and the Pacific region. Though PNG's vulnerability to climate change and sensitivity of malaria mosquitoes to weather are well-documented, there are few in-depth epidemiological studies conducted on the potential impacts of climate on malaria incidence in the country. This study explored what and how local weather and global climate variability impact on malaria incidence in five regions of PNG. Time series methods were applied to evaluate the associations of malaria incidence with weather and climate factors, respectively. Local weather factors including precipitation and temperature and global climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the ENSO Modoki, the Southern Annular Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole were considered in analyses. The results showed that malaria incidence was associated with local weather factors in most regions but at the different lag times and in directions. Meanwhile, there were trends in associations with global climate factors by geographical locations of study sites. Overall heterogeneous associations suggest the importance of location-specific approaches in PNG not only for further investigations but also public health interventions in repose to the potential impacts arising from climate change.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ASCMO...2..155D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ASCMO...2..155D"><span>Analysis of variability of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Davies, Georgina; Cressie, Noel</p> <p>2016-11-01</p> <p>Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean is a key component of many global climate models and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. We shall analyse SST for the period November 1981-December 2014. To study the temporal variability of the ENSO phenomenon, we have selected a subregion of the tropical Pacific Ocean, namely the Niño 3.4 region, as it is thought to be the area where SST anomalies indicate most clearly ENSO's influence on the global atmosphere. SST anomalies, obtained by subtracting the appropriate monthly averages from the data, are the focus of the majority of previous analyses of the Pacific and other oceans' SSTs. Preliminary data analysis showed that not only Niño 3.4 spatial means but also Niño 3.4 spatial variances varied with month of the year. In this article, we conduct an analysis of the raw SST data and introduce diagnostic plots (here, plots of variability vs. central tendency). These plots show strong negative dependence between the spatial standard deviation and the spatial mean. Outliers are present, so we consider robust regression to obtain intercept and slope estimates for the 12 individual months and for all-months-combined. Based on this mean-standard deviation relationship, we define a variance-stabilizing transformation. On the transformed scale, we describe the Niño 3.4 SST time series with a statistical model that is linear, heteroskedastic, and dynamical.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JGRD..11521108W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010JGRD..11521108W"><span>Water vapor variability and comparisons in the subtropical Pacific from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Driftsonde, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC), and reanalyses</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Junhong; Zhang, Liangying; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Bradford, Mark; Cole, Harold; Fox, Jack; Hock, Terry; Lauritsen, Dean; Loehrer, Scot; Martin, Charlie; Vanandel, Joseph; Weng, Chun-Hsiung; Young, Kathryn</p> <p>2010-11-01</p> <p>During the THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC), from 1 August to 30 September 2008, ˜1900 high-quality, high vertical resolution soundings were collected over the Pacific Ocean. These include dropsondes deployed from four aircrafts and zero-pressure balloons in the stratosphere (NCAR's Driftsonde system). The water vapor probability distribution and spatial variability in the northern subtropical Pacific (14°-20°N, 140°E-155°W) are studied using Driftsonde and COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) data and four global reanalysis products. Driftsonde data analysis shows distinct differences of relative humidity (RH) distributions in the free troposphere between the Eastern and Western Pacific (EP and WP, defined as east and west of 180°, respectively), very dry with a single peak of ˜1% RH in the EP and bi-modal distributions in the WP with one peak near ice saturation and one varying with altitude. The frequent occurrences of extreme dry air are found in the driftsonde data with 59% and 19% of RHs less than or equal to 5% and at 1% at 500 hPa in the EP, respectively. RH with respect to ice in the free troposphere exhibits considerable longitudinal variations, very low (<20%) in the EP, but varying from 20% to 100% in the WP. Inter-comparisons of Driftsonde, COSMIC and reanalysis data show generally good agreement among the Driftsonde, COSMIC, ECMWF Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) and Japanese Reanalysis (JRA) below 200 hPa. The ERA-Interim and JRA are approved to be successful on describing RH frequency distributions and spatial variations in the region. The comparisons also reveal problems in Driftsonde, two National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses and COSMIC data. The moist layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP shown in the ERA-Interim, JRA and COSMIC is missing in Driftsonde data. Major problems are found in the RH means and variability over the study region for both NCEP reanalyses. Although the higher-moisture layer at 200-100 hPa in the WP in the COSMIC data agrees well with the ERA-Interim and JRA, it is primarily attributed to the first guess of the 1-Dimensional (1D) variational analysis used in the COSMIC retrieval rather than the refractivity measurements. The limited soundings (total 268) of Driftsonde data are capable of portraying RH probability distributions and longitudinal variability. This implies that Driftsonde system has the potential to become a valuable operational system for upper air observations over the ocean.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70162514','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70162514"><span>Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia</p> <p>2017-01-01</p> <p>Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html','SCIGOVWS'); return false;" href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Epac_hurr/Epac_hurricane.html"><span>Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.science.gov/aboutsearch.html">Science.gov Websites</a></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p><em>influence</em> seasonal eastern Pacific hurricane activity, along with <em>climate</em> model forecasts. The outlook also National Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page <em>Climate</em> Prediction Center Site Map Administration (NOAA) <em>Climate</em> Prediction Center (CPC), and is produced in collaboration with scientists from the</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ESuD....6..271M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ESuD....6..271M"><span>Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mutz, Sebastian G.; Ehlers, Todd A.; Werner, Martin; Lohmann, Gerrit; Stepanek, Christian; Li, Jingmin</p> <p>2018-04-01</p> <p>The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ˜ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ˜ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ˜ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ˜ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011GeoRL..3824605J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011GeoRL..3824605J"><span>Easterly denitrification signal and nitrogen fixation feedback documented in the western Pacific sediments</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Jia, Guodong; Li, Zhiyang</p> <p>2011-12-01</p> <p>A sedimentary δ15N record in the equatorial western Pacific (WP) shows glacial-interglacial variability from 6.2 to 11.2‰ during the last two climatic cycles, similar to the denitrification record in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). Contrastively, a record in the South China Sea (SCS) exhibits less changes from 4.4 to 6.4‰ and is quite alike previously published results in marginal seas in the WP. By ruling out several possible causes for the δ15N variability, the δ15N record in the equatorial WP is interpreted as the source nitrate δ15N signals advected from the ETP. Comparison of several δ15N records for the last 25 ka distributed in the WP brings out a pattern of northward decrease in δ15N values and variability from the equator to off Mindano and then to marginal seas, supposed to be caused by the northward increase of local N2 fixation. Therefore, the less glacial-interglacial changes in some δ15N records in the WP could imply that the glacial decrease in subsurface δ15N due to less denitrification in source waters from the ETP would have been isotopically compensated by a synchronous decrease in local N2 fixation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/48136','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/48136"><span>Challenges and a checklist for biodiversity conservation in fire-prone forests: perspecitves from the Pacific Northwest of USA and Southeastern Australia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a></p> <p>Thomas A. Spies; David B. Lindenmayer; A. Malcolm Gill; Scott L. Stephens; James K. Agee</p> <p>2012-01-01</p> <p>Conserving biodiversity in fire-prone forest ecosystems is challenging for several reasons including differing and incomplete conceptual models of fire-related ecological processes, major gaps in ecological and management knowledge, high variability in fire behavior and ecological responses to fires, altered fire regimes as a result of land-use history and climate...</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CliPD..11.1407M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015CliPD..11.1407M"><span>Millennial-scale precipitation variability over Easter Island (South Pacific) during MIS 3: inter-hemispheric teleconnections with North Atlantic abrupt cold events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Margalef, O.; Cacho, I.; Pla-Rabes, S.; Cañellas-Boltà, N.; Pueyo, J. J.; Sáez, A.; Pena, L. D.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Rull, V.; Giralt, S.</p> <p>2015-04-01</p> <p>Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, 59.4-27.8 kyr BP) is characterized by the occurrence of rapid millennial-scale climate oscillations known as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles (DO) and by abrupt cooling events in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich events. Although both the timing and dynamics of these events have been broadly explored in North Atlantic records, the response of the tropical and subtropical latitudes to these rapid climatic excursions, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, still remains unclear. The Rano Aroi peat record (Easter Island, 27° S) provides a unique opportunity to understand atmospheric and oceanic changes in the South Pacific during these DO cycles because of its singular location, which is influenced by the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA), the Southern Westerlies (SW), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) linked to the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Rano Aroi sequence records 6 major events of enhanced precipitation between 38 and 65 kyr BP. These events are compared with other hydrological records from the tropical and subtropical band supporting a coherent regional picture, with the dominance of humid conditions in Southern Hemisphere tropical band during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 5, 5a and 6 and other Stadials while dry conditions prevailed in the Northern tropics. This antiphased hydrological pattern between hemispheres has been attributed to ITCZ migration, which in turn might be associated with an eastward expansion of the SPCZ storm track, leading to an increased intensity of cyclogenic storms reaching Easter Island. Low Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) gradients across the Equator were coincident with the here-defined Rano Aroi humid events and consistent with a reorganization of Southern Pacific atmospheric and oceanic circulation also at higher latitudes during Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger stadials.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/638275-asian-australian-monsoon-el-nino-southern-oscillation-ncar-climate-system-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/638275-asian-australian-monsoon-el-nino-southern-oscillation-ncar-climate-system-model"><span>The Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>Meehl, G.A.; Arblaster, J.M.</p> <p></p> <p>Features associated with the Asian-Australian monsoon system and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are described in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global coupled Climate System Model (CSM). Simulation characteristics are compared with a version of the atmospheric component of the CSM, the NCAR CCM3, run with time-evolving SSTs from 1950 to 1994, and with observations. The CSM is shown to represent most major features of the monsoon system in terms of mean climatology, interannual variability, and connections to the tropical Pacific. This includes a representation of the Southern Oscillation links between strong Asian-Australian monsoons and associated negative SST anomaliesmore » in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The equatorial SST gradient across the Pacific in the CSM is shown to be similar to the observed with somewhat cooler mean SSTs across the entire Pacific by about 1--2 C. The seasonal cycle of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific has the characteristic signature seen in the observations of relatively warmer SSTs propagating westward in the first half of the year followed by the reestablishment of the cold tongue with relatively colder SSTs propagating westward in the second half of the year. Like other global coupled models, the propagation is similar to the observed but with the establishment of the relatively warmer water in the first half of the year occurring about 1--2 months later than observed. The seasonal cycle of precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific is also similar to other global coupled models in that there is a tendency for a stronger-than-observed double ITCZ year round, particularly in northern spring, but with a well-reproduced annual maximum of ITCZ strength north of the equator in the second half of the year.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC54B..04A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC54B..04A"><span>Weather-forced variations of Central and East Pacific ENSO events</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Alexander, M. A.; Newman, M.; Shin, S.</p> <p>2010-12-01</p> <p>It has been suggested that a possible outcome of climate change is an increase in the occurrence of “Modoki” or central Pacific El Nino events relative to canonical eastern Pacific El Nino events, and that this change may already be occurring. Such a determination, however, is complicated by possible natural variations of the two types of events. How large a change in the relative occurrence can be expected from purely internal variability? To explore this question, a “patterns-based” red noise null hypothesis is constructed from 40 years of observed seasonally-averaged SST, 20 deg C thermocline depth, and surface zonal wind stress anomalies. Patterns-based (or multivariate) red noise differs from “local” (or univariate) red noise since it allows for non-local advective processes; for example, weather noise driving surface wind stress in one location to produce an ocean response in a different location. It is shown that natural random variations of the central Pacific to east Pacific El Nino occurrence ratio are large enough that they could account for all past observed differences as well as all differences found in the SRESA1B runs of all AR4 climate models. Additionally, the correlation between Nino3 and Nino4 SST indices over 30-yr periods can range between 0.7 and 0.9 simply due to such variations in noise, with apparent multidecadal “trends” during which the value increases or decreases. Further analysis shows the different spatial patterns of “noise” (i.e., random weather forcing) that can lead to the development of central vs. eastern Pacific ENSO events or various combinations thereof.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1358120-algae-testbed-public-private-partnership-atp-framework-establishment-national-network-testbed-sites-support-sustainable-algae-production','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1358120-algae-testbed-public-private-partnership-atp-framework-establishment-national-network-testbed-sites-support-sustainable-algae-production"><span>The Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP 3 ) framework; establishment of a national network of testbed sites to support sustainable algae production</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a></p> <p>McGowen, John; Knoshaug, Eric P.; Laurens, Lieve M. L.; ...</p> <p>2017-07-01</p> <p>Well-controlled experiments that directly compare seasonal algal productivities across geographically distinct locations have not been reported before. To fill this gap, six cultivation testbed facilities were chosen across the United States to evaluate different climatic zones with respect to algal biomass productivity potential. The geographical locations and climates were as follows: Southwest, desert; Western, coastal; Southeast, inland; Southeast, coastal; Pacific, tropical; and Midwest, greenhouse. The testbed facilities were equipped with identical systems for inoculum production and open pond operation and methods were standardized across all testbeds to ensure accurate measurement of physical and biological variables. The ability of the testbedmore » sites to culture and analyze the same algal species, Nannochloropsis oceanica KA32, using identical pond operational and data collection procedures was evaluated during the same seasonal timeframe. This manuscript describes the results of a first-of-its-kind coordinated testbed validation field study while providing critical details on how geographical variations in temperature, light, and weather variables influenced algal productivity, nitrate consumption, and biomass composition. We found distinct differences in growth characteristics due to the geographic location and the resulting climatic and seasonal conditions across the sites, with the highest productivities observed at the desert Southwest and tropical Pacific regions, followed by the Western coastal region. The lowest productivities were observed at the Southeast inland and Midwest greenhouse locations. These differences in productivities among the sites correlated with the differences in pond water temperature and available solar radiation. In addition two sites, the tropical Pacific and Southeast inland experienced unusual events, spontaneous flocculation, and unusually cold and wet (rainfall) conditions respectively, that negatively affected outdoor algal growth. In addition, minor variability in productivity was observed between the different experimental treatments at each site, much smaller compared to differences due to geographic location. Finally, the successful demonstration of the coordinated and standardized operation of the testbed sites established a rigorous basis for future validation of algal strains and operational conditions and protocols across a geographically diverse testbed network.« less</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1358120-algae-testbed-public-private-partnership-atp-framework-establishment-national-network-testbed-sites-support-sustainable-algae-production','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1358120-algae-testbed-public-private-partnership-atp-framework-establishment-national-network-testbed-sites-support-sustainable-algae-production"><span>The Algae Testbed Public-Private Partnership (ATP 3 ) framework; establishment of a national network of testbed sites to support sustainable algae production</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a></p> <p>McGowen, John; Knoshaug, Eric P.; Laurens, Lieve M. L.</p> <p></p> <p>Well-controlled experiments that directly compare seasonal algal productivities across geographically distinct locations have not been reported before. To fill this gap, six cultivation testbed facilities were chosen across the United States to evaluate different climatic zones with respect to algal biomass productivity potential. The geographical locations and climates were as follows: Southwest, desert; Western, coastal; Southeast, inland; Southeast, coastal; Pacific, tropical; and Midwest, greenhouse. The testbed facilities were equipped with identical systems for inoculum production and open pond operation and methods were standardized across all testbeds to ensure accurate measurement of physical and biological variables. The ability of the testbedmore » sites to culture and analyze the same algal species, Nannochloropsis oceanica KA32, using identical pond operational and data collection procedures was evaluated during the same seasonal timeframe. This manuscript describes the results of a first-of-its-kind coordinated testbed validation field study while providing critical details on how geographical variations in temperature, light, and weather variables influenced algal productivity, nitrate consumption, and biomass composition. We found distinct differences in growth characteristics due to the geographic location and the resulting climatic and seasonal conditions across the sites, with the highest productivities observed at the desert Southwest and tropical Pacific regions, followed by the Western coastal region. The lowest productivities were observed at the Southeast inland and Midwest greenhouse locations. These differences in productivities among the sites correlated with the differences in pond water temperature and available solar radiation. In addition two sites, the tropical Pacific and Southeast inland experienced unusual events, spontaneous flocculation, and unusually cold and wet (rainfall) conditions respectively, that negatively affected outdoor algal growth. In addition, minor variability in productivity was observed between the different experimental treatments at each site, much smaller compared to differences due to geographic location. Finally, the successful demonstration of the coordinated and standardized operation of the testbed sites established a rigorous basis for future validation of algal strains and operational conditions and protocols across a geographically diverse testbed network.« less</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active"><span>24</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_24 --> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JQS....21..689C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JQS....21..689C"><span>Millennia-long tree-ring records from Tasmania and New Zealand: a basis for modelling climate variability and forcing, past, present and future</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Cook, Edward R.; Buckley, Brendan M.; Palmer, Jonathan G.; Fenwick, Pavla; Peterson, Michael J.; Boswijk, Gretel; Fowler, Anthony</p> <p>2006-10-01</p> <p>Progress in the development of millennia-long tree-ring chronologies from Australia and New Zealand is reviewed from the perspective of modelling long-term climate variability there. Three tree species have proved successful in this regard: Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii) from Tasmania, silver pine (L. colensoi) from the South Island of New Zealand, and kauri (Agathis australis) from the North Island of New Zealand. Each of these species is very long-lived and produces abundant quantities of well-preserved wood for extending their tree-ring chronologies back several millennia into the past. The growth patterns on these chronologies strongly correlate with both local and regional warm-season temperature changes over significant areas of the Southern Hemisphere (especially Huon and silver pine) and to ENSO variability emanating from the equatorial Pacific region (especially kauri). In addition, there is evidence for significant, band-limited, multi-decadal and centennial timescale variability in the warm-season temperature reconstruction based on Huon pine tree rings that may be related to slowly varying changes in ocean circulation dynamics in the southern Indian Ocean. This suggests the possibility of long-term climate predictability there. Copyright</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1322G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP33B1322G"><span>Changes in Eastern Equatorial Pacific Thermocline Structure across the Last Deglaciation: Evidence from the Carnegie Ridge</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Glaubke, R.; Schmidt, M. W.; Warner, L.; Hertzberg, J. E.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T. S.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>The eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is an important climatological region given its influence in the modulation of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current climatic mean state of the EEP is characterized by cool sea surface temperatures (SST) and a strong, shallow thermocline. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty about past changes in tropical Pacific climate and how ENSO variability relates to the millennial-scale climate events of the last deglaciation. Here, we will present 21 kyrs of Mg/Ca paleotemperature data from the surface-dwelling foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber and the thermocline-dwelling foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei collected from piston core MV1014-02-17JC (00° 10.83'S, 85° 52.00'W; 2846 m depth) on the Carnegie Ridge. Initial results reveal a 1.3°C warming of the surface ocean from the early-Holocene until 6 kyrs, a trend present in other EEP SST reconstructions (Pena et al., 2008; Timmerman et al., 2014; Lea et al., 2000). The surface ocean subsequently cools from 6 kyrs and reaches present-day temperatures by 3.5 kyrs. The subsurface reveals a nearly monotonic cooling of 1.8°C from 10.8 kyrs to the present day, which suggest a gradual shoaling of the thermocline across the Holocene. Furthermore, an increase in the vertical temperature gradient occurs from the late- to mid-Holocene, with the sharpest temperature difference centered at 6 kyrs, coincident with the mid-Holocene peak in SSTs. Taken together, these data suggest a gradual shoaling of the thermocline across the Holocene, with the variations in SST primarily governing the intensity of the vertical temperature gradient. Future work includes extending this record back to the last glacial maximum (LGM) to assess tropical Pacific mean state change across the abrupt climate events that characterized the last deglaciation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AtmEn.100..202P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AtmEn.100..202P"><span>Ice core profiles of saturated fatty acids (C12:0-C30:0) and oleic acid (C18:1) from southern Alaska since 1734 AD: A link to climate change in the Northern Hemisphere</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Pokhrel, Ambarish; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Seki, Osamu; Matoba, Sumio; Shiraiwa, Takayuki</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>An ice core drilled at Aurora Peak in southeast Alaska was analyzed for homologous series of straight chain fatty acids (C12:0-C30:0) including unsaturated fatty acid (oleic acid) using gas chromatography (GC/FID) and GC/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Molecular distributions of fatty acids are characterized by even carbon number predominance with a peak at palmitic acid (C16:0, av. 20.3 ± SD. 29.8 ng/g-ice) followed by oleic acid (C18:1, 19.6 ± 38.6 ng/g-ice) and myristic acid (C14:0, 15.3 ± 21.9 ng/g-ice). The historical trends of short-chain fatty acids, together with correlation analysis with inorganic ions and organic tracers suggest that short-chain fatty acids (except for C12:0 and C15:0) were mainly derived from sea surface micro layers through bubble bursting mechanism and transported over the glacier through the atmosphere. This atmospheric transport process is suggested to be linked with Kamchatka ice core δD record from Northeast Asia and Greenland Temperature Anomaly (GTA). In contrast, long-chain fatty acids (C20:0-C30:0) are originated from terrestrial higher plants, soil organic matter and dusts, which are also linked with GTA. Hence, this study suggests that Alaskan fatty acids are strongly influenced by Pacific Decadal Oscillation/North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and/or extra tropical North Pacific surface climate and Arctic oscillation. We also found that decadal scale variability of C18:1/C18:0 ratios in the Aurora Peak ice core correlate with the Kamchatka ice core δD, which reflects climate oscillations in the North Pacific. This study suggests that photochemical aging of organic aerosols could be controlled by climate periodicity.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC23A1224B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC23A1224B"><span>Climate Drivers of Alaska Summer Stream Temperature</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Bieniek, P.; Bhatt, U. S.; Plumb, E. W.; Thoman, R.; Trammell, E. J.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The temperature of the water in lakes, rivers and streams has wide ranging impacts from local water quality and fish habitats to global climate change. Salmon fisheries in Alaska, a critical source of food in many subsistence communities, are sensitive to large-scale climate variability and river and stream temperatures have also been linked with salmon production in Alaska. Given current and projected climate change, understanding the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate and river and stream temperatures is essential to better understand the changes that may occur with aquatic life in Alaska's waterways on which subsistence users depend. An analysis of Alaska stream temperatures in the context of reanalysis, downscaled, station and other climate data is undertaken in this study to fill that need. Preliminary analysis identified eight stream observation sites with sufficiently long (>15 years) data available for climate-scale analysis in Alaska with one station, Terror Creek in Kodiak, having a 30-year record. Cross-correlation of summer (June-August) water temperatures between the stations are generally high even though they are spread over a large geographic region. Correlation analysis of the Terror Creek summer observations with seasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Pacific broadly resembles the SST anomaly fields typically associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). A similar result was found for the remaining stations and in both cases PDO-like correlation patterns also occurred in the preceding spring. These preliminary results demonstrate that there is potential to diagnose the mechanisms that link the large-scale climate system and Alaska stream temperatures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43D..03H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43D..03H"><span>An ensemble approach to reconstructing 20th century climate trends in data-sparse regions of the tropical Pacific using young fossil corals</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hitt, N. T.; Cobb, K. M.; Sayani, H. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Atwood, A. R.; O'Connor, G.; Chen, T.; Hagos, M. M.; Deocampo, D.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Lu, Y.; Thompson, D. M.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the central tropical Pacific drives global-scale responses through atmospheric teleconnections, so the response of this region to anthropogenic forcing has important implications for regional climate responses in many areas. However, quantification of anthropogenic SST trends in the central tropical Pacific is complicated by the fact that instrumental SST observations in this region are extremely limited prior to 1950, with trends of opposite sign observed across the various gridded instrumental datasets (Deser et al., 2010). Researchers have turned to multi-century coral records to reconstruct ocean temperatures through time, but the paucity of such records prohibits the generation of uncertainty estimates. In this study, we use a large collection of U/Th-dated fossil corals that to investigate a new ensemble approach to reconstructing temperature from the Central Pacific over the late 20th century. Here we combine monthly-resolved d18O and Sr/Ca from 8 5-14 year long coral records from Christmas Island (2°N, 157°W) to quantify temperature and hydrological trends in this region from 1930 to present. We compare our fossil coral ensemble reconstruction to a long modern coral core from this site that extends back to 1940, as well as to gridded SST datasets. We also provide the first well-replicated coral d18O and Sr/Ca records across both the 1997/98 and 2015/2016 El Nino events, comparing the strength of these two events in the context of long-term temperature trends observed in our longer reconstruction. We conclude that the fossil coral ensemble approach provides a robust means of reconstructing 20th century climate trends. Deser et al., 2010, GRL, doi: 10.1029/2010GL043321</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC44A..05H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC44A..05H"><span>A Physical Model for Extreme Drought over Southwest Asia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Hoell, A.; Barlow, M. A.; Funk, C. C.; Cannon, F.</p> <p>2015-12-01</p> <p>The socioeconomic difficulties of Southwest Asia, defined as the area bound by the domain 25°N-40°N and 40°E-70°E, which includes the countries of Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan, are exacerbated by extreme precipitation deficits during the November-April rainy season. The precipitation deficits during many Southwest Asia droughts have been examined in terms of the forcing by climate variability originating over the Pacific Ocean as a result of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) and the long-term warming of Pacific (LT) sea surface temperatures (SST). Here, we 1) examine how the most extreme November-April Southwest Asia droughts relate to global SSTs and the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, 2) analyze the specific atmospheric forcing mechanisms responsible for changes in regional Southwest Asian precipitation and 3) examine the causal mechanisms responsible for the increased frequency of Southwest Asia drought in recent decades. The driest November-April seasons during 1948-2012 over Southwest Asia are forced by subsidence and reductions of moisture fluxes as a result of the interaction of the mean flow with anomalous zonally-symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The anomalous zonally-symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere occurs simultaneously with cool central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies associated with La Niña and the negative phase of PDV and a warm west Pacific Ocean caused in part by the long-term warming of the west Pacific Ocean. The long-term warming of the Pacific Ocean has driven the regional precipitation declines in recent decades, with the strongest signal occurring over areas bordering the Arabian Sea.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CliPa..14..101N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018CliPa..14..101N"><span>Climate variability in the subarctic area for the last 2 millennia</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Nicolle, Marie; Debret, Maxime; Massei, Nicolas; Colin, Christophe; deVernal, Anne; Divine, Dmitry; Werner, Johannes P.; Hormes, Anne; Korhola, Atte; Linderholm, Hans W.</p> <p>2018-01-01</p> <p>To put recent climate change in perspective, it is necessary to extend the instrumental climate records with proxy data from paleoclimate archives. Arctic climate variability for the last 2 millennia has been investigated using statistical and signal analyses from three regionally averaged records from the North Atlantic, Siberia and Alaska based on many types of proxy data archived in the Arctic 2k database v1.1.1. In the North Atlantic and Alaska, the major climatic trend is characterized by long-term cooling interrupted by recent warming that started at the beginning of the 19th century. This cooling is visible in the Siberian region at two sites, warming at the others. The cooling of the Little Ice Age (LIA) was identified from the individual series, but it is characterized by wide-range spatial and temporal expression of climate variability, in contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly. The LIA started at the earliest by around AD 1200 and ended at the latest in the middle of the 20th century. The widespread temporal coverage of the LIA did not show regional consistency or particular spatial distribution and did not show a relationship with archive or proxy type either. A focus on the last 2 centuries shows a recent warming characterized by a well-marked warming trend parallel with increasing greenhouse gas emissions. It also shows a multidecadal variability likely due to natural processes acting on the internal climate system on a regional scale. A ˜ 16-30-year cycle is found in Alaska and seems to be linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, whereas ˜ 20-30- and ˜ 50-90-year periodicities characterize the North Atlantic climate variability, likely in relation with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These regional features are probably linked to the sea ice cover fluctuations through ice-temperature positive feedback.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP51C1088E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPP51C1088E"><span>Postglacial diatom-climate responses in a small lake in the Pacific Northwest of North America</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Egan, J.; Allott, T. E.; Fletcher, W.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Understanding the variability of ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of North America is essential for climate forecasting, particularly variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Research suggests that global warming is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events, which can have global climatic impacts (e.g. disrupting global weather patterns, affecting ecosystems and agriculture and extreme weather events (flood, drought, bushfires)). A diatom record spanning 14,500 Cal yr BP from Moss Lake, Washington is used to assess Holocene climate change in the PNW including evidence for periodicities related to ocean-atmosphere interactions and/or variations in solar output, and is directly compared to the Moss Lake pollen record. Three climate phases were identified: 1) the Late Pleistocene (until 11,800 Cal yr BP), with a cold climate evidenced by the low abundance of diatoms; 2) the early to mid-Holocene (11,800 - 7500 Cal yr BP), with warm climate, longer growing seasons and shorter periods of ice cover, indicated by the increase of Cyclotella pseudostelligera and decrease of Fragilaria taxa; and 3) the mid-to-late Holocene from 7500 Cal yr BP onwards, with a cooler climate reflected by a decrease in Cyclotella pseudostelligera and an increase in Fragilaria taxa. These climate shifts correlate with the regional and local pollen record. Fluctuations in Cyclotella pseudostelligera and Aulacoseira taxa suggest climatic cycles of varying amplitude throughout. RedFit and Wavelet analyses revealed periodicities of approximately 2000, 1300, and 450 yrs. The 2000 yr cycle is attributed to solar variation; the Hallstatt Oscillation. The 1300 yr and 450 yr cycles are attributed to ENSO and PDO like cycles. The 1300 periodicity is evident throughout the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and reflects shifts from El Niño/positive PDO (weak wind intensity, warm temperature) to La Niña/Negative PDO (high wind intensity, cool temperature). Between 11,800 and 7500 Cal yr BP the cycle amplitudes are reduced and frequency increased reflecting the 450 yr periodicity. Diatom data from Moss Lake provide a sensitive record of climate-related limnological responses and refine our understanding of Holocene climate change in the PNW.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2661091','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2661091"><span>The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a></p> <p>Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G</p> <p>2009-01-01</p> <p>Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.A53E0324M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.A53E0324M"><span>Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) Derived-data Products</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Marra, J. J.</p> <p>2008-12-01</p> <p>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center has initiated the Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) project to improve our understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - 'storminess'- within the Pacific region and develop a suite of integrated data and information products. Strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas theme-specific data integration and product development teams have been formed to carry out this work. These teams are comprised of recognized agency and university- based experts in the area of climate-related processes that govern storminess. They include representatives from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Center for Operational Products and Services (CO-OPS), and National Weather Service (NWS), as well as the University of Hawai'i, University of Alaska, University of Guam, and Oregon State University. Each team is developing regional climatological overviews, identifying corresponding extremes indices, establishing data treatment and analysis protocols, and conducting analyses to establish baseline statistics, long term trends, patterns of variability, and event return recurrence intervals via Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analyses. Preliminary results of these analyses can be viewed via a beta-version of a Google map- based query utility (http://www.pricip.org/ddp.php ). Data sources for these analyses include NOAA's Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) mean sea level pressure and wind speed data; the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) precipitation dataset; the National Water Level Observing Network (NWLON) sea level station records; the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) wave buoy records; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers" Coastal Data Information (CDIP) buoy data, and other data. The northern and central north Pacific, which includes Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and Hawai'i, have been targeted as initial priority areas. It is envisioned that the results of this effort will be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors including water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H23F1675S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H23F1675S"><span>Quantifying the Hydrologic Effect of Climate Variability in the Lower Colorado Basin</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Switanek, M.; Troch, P. A.</p> <p>2007-12-01</p> <p>Regional climate patterns are driven in large part by ocean states and associated atmospheric circulations, but modified through feedbacks from land surface conditions. The latter defines the climate elasticity of a river basin. Many regions that lie between semi-arid and semi-humid zones with seasonal rainfall, for instance, experience prolonged periods of wet and dry spells. Understanding the triggers that bring a river basin from one state (e.g. wet period of late 90s in the Colorado basin) abruptly to another state (multi-year drought initiated in 2001 to present) is what motivates the present study. Our research methodology investigates the causes of regional climate variability and its effect on hydrologic response. By correlating, using different monthly time lags, sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressures (SLP) with basin averaged precipitation and surface temperature, we determine the most influential regions of the Pacific Ocean on lower Colorado climate variability. Using the most correlated data for each month, we derive precipitation and temperature distributions under similar conditions to that of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We compare the distributions of the climatic data, given ENSO constraints on SST and SLP, to the distributions considering non-ENSO years. Finally, we use observed stream flows and climatic data to determine the basin's climate elasticity. This allows us to quantitatively translate the predicted regional climate effects of ENSO on hydrologic response. Our presentation will use data for the Little Colorado as an example to demonstrate the procedure and produce preliminary results.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS23D..01H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMOS23D..01H"><span>Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3744Q','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.3744Q"><span>Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to constrain model uncertainty for an - assumed to be - ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for reconstructing long-term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America, and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43A2309K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPP43A2309K"><span>Testing the Millennial-Scale Holocene Solar-Climate Connection in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Khider, D.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Jackson, C. S.; Routson, C.</p> <p>2016-12-01</p> <p>The existence of 1000 and 2500-year periodicities found in reconstructions of total solar irradiance (TSI) and a number of Holocene climate records has led to the hypothesis of a causal relationship. However, attributing Holocene millennial-scale variability to solar forcing requires a mechanism by which small changes in total irradiance can influence a global climate response. One possible amplifier within the climate system is the ocean. If this is the case, then we need to know more about where and how this may be occurring. On the other hand, the similarity in spectral peaks could be merely coincidental, and this should be made apparent by a lack of coherence in how that power and phasing are distributed in time and space. The plausibility of the solar forcing hypothesis is assessed through a Bayesian model of the age uncertainties affecting marine sedimentary records that is propagated through spectral analysis of the climate and forcing signals at key frequencies. Preliminary work on Mg/Ca and alkenone records from the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool suggests that despite large uncertainties in the location of the spectral peaks within each individual record arising from age model uncertainty, sea surface variability on timescales of 1025±36 years and 2427±133 years (±standard error of the mean of the median periodicity in each record) are present in at least 95% and 70% of the ensemble spectra, respectively. However, we find a long phase delay between the peak in forcing and the maximum response in at least one of the records, challenging the solar forcing hypothesis and requiring further investigation between low- and high-latitude signals. Remarkably, all records suggest a periodicity near 1470±85 years, reminiscent of the cycles characteristic of Marine Isotope Stage 3; these cycles are absent from existing records of TSI, further questioning the millennial solar-climate connection.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ECSS..202..212B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ECSS..202..212B"><span>Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.</p> <p>2018-03-01</p> <p>The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20-25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43A1612K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H43A1612K"><span>Typhoon Changes in Northwestern Pacific Region and Its Relationship to Hydrologic Variability</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Kim, J. S.; Lee, J. H.</p> <p>2017-12-01</p> <p>Changes in typhoon intensity are sensitively related to the thermodynamic responses of the atmosphere and ocean to warmer temperature and increased CO2 concentrations in a changing climate. Atmospheric conditions in warmer climates are likely to promote the strengthening of typhoon activity. The pattern of typhoons in the North Pacific is constantly changing due to rising sea level, the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña, and changes in weather and climate patterns due to global warming. In particular, as typhoon genesis positions are shifted to the north compared to past typhoon, the East Asia region is exposed to possible typhoon landings and potential damage. Efforts to integrate typhoon-related information into management and planning have focused on recovery in the wake of damaging events—a reactive, hazard perspective; however, there have been insufficient efforts towards regulation and water management and for multilateral assessments of environmental impacts. Therefore, climate change adaptation and countermeasures based on a variety of hydrological changes and a clear understanding of sea surface temperature changes are needed to analyze the changes in ecological systems under the influence of typhoons at the regional and local scale. In this study, we focus on typhoon - sensitive watersheds and quantify the effects of typhoons to analyze various hydrological changes due to typhoons. The results of this study provide useful information for adapting to climate change and preparing measures.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.2006W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.2006W"><span>Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Wang, Xiaolan; Feng, Yang; Swail, Val R.</p> <p>2016-04-01</p> <p>Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, wave observations are available only at limited locations and cover only the recent few decades. Also, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models. In a recent study, we used a multivariate regression model with lagged dependent variable to make statistical global projections of changes in significant wave heights (Hs) using mean sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 climate models for the twenty-first century. The statistical model was calibrated and validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and SLP for the period 1981-2010. The results show Hs increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in southern hemisphere high-latitudes. Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one-in-10-year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world (e.g., the Chilean coast, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico). More recently, we used the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multi-model ensembles of statistical Hs simulations globally, which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of SLP. In a 4-model 3-run ensemble, the 4-model common signal of climate change is found to strengthen over time, as would be expected. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant over 16.6%, 55.0% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005, 2050 and 2099, respectively. For the annual maximum, the signal is much weaker. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific, featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., inter-model variability) is significant over 99.9% of the area; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than the climate change signal by 2099 over most areas, except in the eastern tropical Pacific where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model 2-scenario single-run ensemble of statistical Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the scenario uncertainty between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5625M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5625M"><span>Statistical attribution of mid-term droughts in central Europe</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Mikšovský, Jiří; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf</p> <p>2017-04-01</p> <p>Occurrence and intensity of meteorological droughts are determined by a number of factors, both anthropogenic and natural. Besides the trend-like components, often attributable to local or global man-induced changes to the climate system, manifestations of internal climate oscillatory modes are also of great importance in establishing the hydrological regime. In this presentation, we focus on identification and quantification of factors responsible for central European drought variability at seasonal time scales. Using multivariable regression analysis applied to predictands reflecting various definitions of meteorological droughts (based on Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index and Palmer's Z-index, over the 1883-2010 period), components attributable to external and internal climate-forming agents are extracted and evaluated with regard to their statistical significance. Our results confirm presence of strong links of central European droughts to the anthropogenic radiative forcing and to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, but also existence of connections to the climate oscillations originating from the Pacific area. In this context, we demonstrate that prominence of components related to the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally surpasses that of El Niño - Southern Oscillation, although the related transfer mechanisms still remain unclear. Finally, it is shown that noteworthy deviations from linearity exist in some of the drought responses, particularly for the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70160055','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70160055"><span>Fire activity as a function of fire–weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a></p> <p>Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutierrez, Jose M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesus; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, Jose M.</p> <p>2015-01-01</p> <p>Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire–weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.</p> </li> <li> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10k4013U','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015ERL....10k4013U"><span>Fire activity as a function of fire-weather seasonal severity and antecedent climate across spatial scales in southern Europe and Pacific western USA</span></a></p> <p><a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a></p> <p>Urbieta, Itziar R.; Zavala, Gonzalo; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José M.; San Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús; Camia, Andrea; Keeley, Jon E.; Moreno, José M.</p> <p>2015-11-01</p> <p>Climate has a strong influence on fire activity, varying across time and space. We analyzed the relationships between fire-weather conditions during the main fire season and antecedent water-balance conditions and fires in two Mediterranean-type regions with contrasted management histories: five southern countries of the European Union (EUMED)(all fires); the Pacific western coast of the USA (California and Oregon, PWUSA)(national forest fires). Total number of fires (≥1 ha), number of large fires (≥100 ha) and area burned were related to mean seasonal fire weather index (FWI), number of days over the 90th percentile of the FWI, and to the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from the preceding 3 (spring) or 8 (autumn through spring) months. Calculations were made at three spatial aggregations in each area, and models related first-difference (year-to-year change) of fires and FWI/climate variables to minimize autocorrelation. An increase in mean seasonal FWI resulted in increases in the three fire variables across spatial scales in both regions. SPEI contributed little to explain fires, with few exceptions. Negative water-balance (dry) conditions from autumn through spring (SPEI8) were generally more important than positive conditions (moist) in spring (SPEI3), both of which contributed positively to fires. The R2 of the models generally improved with increasing area of aggregation. For total number of fires and area burned, the R2 of the models tended to decrease with increasing mean seasonal FWI. Thus, fires were more susceptible to change with climate variability in areas with less amenable conditions for fires (lower FWI) than in areas with higher mean FWI values. The relationships were similar in both regions, albeit weaker in PWUSA, probably due to the wider latitudinal gradient covered in PWUSA than in EUMED. The large variance explained by some of the models indicates that large-scale seasonal forecast could help anticipating fire activity in the investigated areas.</p> </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active"><span>25</span></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div><!-- col-sm-12 --> </div><!-- row --> </div><!-- page_25 --> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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