Searching for Collective Behavior in a Large Network of Sensory Neurons

PubMed Central

Tkačik, Gašper; Marre, Olivier; Amodei, Dario; Schneidman, Elad; Bialek, William; Berry, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Maximum entropy models are the least structured probability distributions that exactly reproduce a chosen set of statistics measured in an interacting network. Here we use this principle to construct probabilistic models which describe the correlated spiking activity of populations of up to 120 neurons in the salamander retina as it responds to natural movies. Already in groups as small as 10 neurons, interactions between spikes can no longer be regarded as small perturbations in an otherwise independent system; for 40 or more neurons pairwise interactions need to be supplemented by a global interaction that controls the distribution of synchrony in the population. Here we show that such “K-pairwise” models—being systematic extensions of the previously used pairwise Ising models—provide an excellent account of the data. We explore the properties of the neural vocabulary by: 1) estimating its entropy, which constrains the population's capacity to represent visual information; 2) classifying activity patterns into a small set of metastable collective modes; 3) showing that the neural codeword ensembles are extremely inhomogenous; 4) demonstrating that the state of individual neurons is highly predictable from the rest of the population, allowing the capacity for error correction. PMID:24391485

Semiblind channel estimation for MIMO-OFDM systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi-Sheng; Song, Jyu-Han

2012-12-01

This article proposes a semiblind channel estimation method for multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing systems based on circular precoding. Relying on the precoding scheme at the transmitters, the autocorrelation matrix of the received data induces a structure relating the outer product of the channel frequency response matrix and precoding coefficients. This structure makes it possible to extract information about channel product matrices, which can be used to form a Hermitian matrix whose positive eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors yield the channel impulse response matrix. This article also tests the resistance of the precoding design to finite-sample estimation errors, and explores the effects of the precoding scheme on channel equalization by performing pairwise error probability analysis. The proposed method is immune to channel zero locations, and is reasonably robust to channel order overestimation. The proposed method is applicable to the scenarios in which the number of transmitters exceeds that of the receivers. Simulation results demonstrate the performance of the proposed method and compare it with some existing methods.

Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

PubMed

She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

2015-01-01

Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances.

PubMed

Gil, Manuel

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error. PMID:25279263

Pairwise comparisons and visual perceptions of equal area polygons.

PubMed

Adamic, P; Babiy, V; Janicki, R; Kakiashvili, T; Koczkodaj, W W; Tadeusiewicz, R

2009-02-01

The number of studies related to visual perception has been plentiful in recent years. Participants rated the areas of five randomly generated shapes of equal area, using a reference unit area that was displayed together with the shapes. Respondents were 179 university students from Canada and Poland. The average error estimated by respondents using the unit square was 25.75%. The error was substantially decreased to 5.51% when the shapes were compared to one another in pairs. This gain of 20.24% for this two-dimensional experiment was substantially better than the 11.78% gain reported in the previous one-dimensional experiments. This is the first statistically sound two-dimensional experiment demonstrating that pairwise comparisons improve accuracy.

Efficient pairwise RNA structure prediction using probabilistic alignment constraints in Dynalign

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Background Joint alignment and secondary structure prediction of two RNA sequences can significantly improve the accuracy of the structural predictions. Methods addressing this problem, however, are forced to employ constraints that reduce computation by restricting the alignments and/or structures (i.e. folds) that are permissible. In this paper, a new methodology is presented for the purpose of establishing alignment constraints based on nucleotide alignment and insertion posterior probabilities. Using a hidden Markov model, posterior probabilities of alignment and insertion are computed for all possible pairings of nucleotide positions from the two sequences. These alignment and insertion posterior probabilities are additively combined to obtain probabilities of co-incidence for nucleotide position pairs. A suitable alignment constraint is obtained by thresholding the co-incidence probabilities. The constraint is integrated with Dynalign, a free energy minimization algorithm for joint alignment and secondary structure prediction. The resulting method is benchmarked against the previous version of Dynalign and against other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction. Results The proposed technique eliminates manual parameter selection in Dynalign and provides significant computational time savings in comparison to prior constraints in Dynalign while simultaneously providing a small improvement in the structural prediction accuracy. Savings are also realized in memory. In experiments over a 5S RNA dataset with average sequence length of approximately 120 nucleotides, the method reduces computation by a factor of 2. The method performs favorably in comparison to other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction: yielding better accuracy, on average, and requiring significantly lesser computational resources. Conclusion Probabilistic analysis can be utilized in order to automate the determination of alignment constraints for pairwise RNA structure prediction methods in a principled fashion. These constraints can reduce the computational and memory requirements of these methods while maintaining or improving their accuracy of structural prediction. This extends the practical reach of these methods to longer length sequences. The revised Dynalign code is freely available for download. PMID:17445273

Score distributions of gapped multiple sequence alignments down to the low-probability tail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fieth, Pascal; Hartmann, Alexander K.

2016-08-01

Assessing the significance of alignment scores of optimally aligned DNA or amino acid sequences can be achieved via the knowledge of the score distribution of random sequences. But this requires obtaining the distribution in the biologically relevant high-scoring region, where the probabilities are exponentially small. For gapless local alignments of infinitely long sequences this distribution is known analytically to follow a Gumbel distribution. Distributions for gapped local alignments and global alignments of finite lengths can only be obtained numerically. To obtain result for the small-probability region, specific statistical mechanics-based rare-event algorithms can be applied. In previous studies, this was achieved for pairwise alignments. They showed that, contrary to results from previous simple sampling studies, strong deviations from the Gumbel distribution occur in case of finite sequence lengths. Here we extend the studies to multiple sequence alignments with gaps, which are much more relevant for practical applications in molecular biology. We study the distributions of scores over a large range of the support, reaching probabilities as small as 10-160, for global and local (sum-of-pair scores) multiple alignments. We find that even after suitable rescaling, eliminating the sequence-length dependence, the distributions for multiple alignment differ from the pairwise alignment case. Furthermore, we also show that the previously discussed Gaussian correction to the Gumbel distribution needs to be refined, also for the case of pairwise alignments.

Simulations of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich signal

DOE PAGES

Flender, Samuel; Bleem, Lindsey; Finkel, Hal; ...

2016-05-26

The pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (kSZ) signal from galaxy clusters is a probe of their line of sight momenta, and thus a potentially valuable source of cosmological information. In addition to the momenta, the amplitude of the measured signal depends on the properties of the intracluster gas and observational limitations such as errors in determining cluster centers and redshifts. In this work, we simulate the pairwise kSZ signal of clusters atmore » $$z\\lt 1$$, using the output from a cosmological N-body simulation and including the properties of the intracluster gas via a model that can be varied in post-processing. We find that modifications to the gas profile due to star formation and feedback reduce the pairwise kSZ amplitude of clusters by $$\\sim 50\\%$$, relative to the naive "gas traces mass" assumption. We demonstrate that miscentering can reduce the overall amplitude of the pairwise kSZ signal by up to 10%, while redshift errors can lead to an almost complete suppression of the signal at small separations. We confirm that a high-significance detection is expected from the combination of data from current generation, high-resolution cosmic microwave background experiments, such as the South Pole Telescope, and cluster samples from optical photometric surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey. As a result, we forecast that future experiments such as Advanced ACTPol in conjunction with data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument will yield detection significances of at least $$20\\sigma $$, and up to $$57\\sigma $$ in an optimistic scenario.« less

Statistical Optimality in Multipartite Ranking and Ordinal Regression.

PubMed

Uematsu, Kazuki; Lee, Yoonkyung

2015-05-01

Statistical optimality in multipartite ranking is investigated as an extension of bipartite ranking. We consider the optimality of ranking algorithms through minimization of the theoretical risk which combines pairwise ranking errors of ordinal categories with differential ranking costs. The extension shows that for a certain class of convex loss functions including exponential loss, the optimal ranking function can be represented as a ratio of weighted conditional probability of upper categories to lower categories, where the weights are given by the misranking costs. This result also bridges traditional ranking methods such as proportional odds model in statistics with various ranking algorithms in machine learning. Further, the analysis of multipartite ranking with different costs provides a new perspective on non-smooth list-wise ranking measures such as the discounted cumulative gain and preference learning. We illustrate our findings with simulation study and real data analysis.

Cortical Dynamics in Presence of Assemblies of Densely Connected Weight-Hub Neurons

PubMed Central

Setareh, Hesam; Deger, Moritz; Petersen, Carl C. H.; Gerstner, Wulfram

2017-01-01

Experimental measurements of pairwise connection probability of pyramidal neurons together with the distribution of synaptic weights have been used to construct randomly connected model networks. However, several experimental studies suggest that both wiring and synaptic weight structure between neurons show statistics that differ from random networks. Here we study a network containing a subset of neurons which we call weight-hub neurons, that are characterized by strong inward synapses. We propose a connectivity structure for excitatory neurons that contain assemblies of densely connected weight-hub neurons, while the pairwise connection probability and synaptic weight distribution remain consistent with experimental data. Simulations of such a network with generalized integrate-and-fire neurons display regular and irregular slow oscillations akin to experimentally observed up/down state transitions in the activity of cortical neurons with a broad distribution of pairwise spike correlations. Moreover, stimulation of a model network in the presence or absence of assembly structure exhibits responses similar to light-evoked responses of cortical layers in optogenetically modified animals. We conclude that a high connection probability into and within assemblies of excitatory weight-hub neurons, as it likely is present in some but not all cortical layers, changes the dynamics of a layer of cortical microcircuitry significantly. PMID:28690508

A configuration space of homologous proteins conserving mutual information and allowing a phylogeny inference based on pair-wise Z-score probabilities.

PubMed

Bastien, Olivier; Ortet, Philippe; Roy, Sylvaine; Maréchal, Eric

2005-03-10

Popular methods to reconstruct molecular phylogenies are based on multiple sequence alignments, in which addition or removal of data may change the resulting tree topology. We have sought a representation of homologous proteins that would conserve the information of pair-wise sequence alignments, respect probabilistic properties of Z-scores (Monte Carlo methods applied to pair-wise comparisons) and be the basis for a novel method of consistent and stable phylogenetic reconstruction. We have built up a spatial representation of protein sequences using concepts from particle physics (configuration space) and respecting a frame of constraints deduced from pair-wise alignment score properties in information theory. The obtained configuration space of homologous proteins (CSHP) allows the representation of real and shuffled sequences, and thereupon an expression of the TULIP theorem for Z-score probabilities. Based on the CSHP, we propose a phylogeny reconstruction using Z-scores. Deduced trees, called TULIP trees, are consistent with multiple-alignment based trees. Furthermore, the TULIP tree reconstruction method provides a solution for some previously reported incongruent results, such as the apicomplexan enolase phylogeny. The CSHP is a unified model that conserves mutual information between proteins in the way physical models conserve energy. Applications include the reconstruction of evolutionary consistent and robust trees, the topology of which is based on a spatial representation that is not reordered after addition or removal of sequences. The CSHP and its assigned phylogenetic topology, provide a powerful and easily updated representation for massive pair-wise genome comparisons based on Z-score computations.

Novel space-time trellis codes for free-space optical communications using transmit laser selection.

PubMed

García-Zambrana, Antonio; Boluda-Ruiz, Rubén; Castillo-Vázquez, Carmen; Castillo-Vázquez, Beatriz

2015-09-21

In this paper, the deployment of novel space-time trellis codes (STTCs) with transmit laser selection (TLS) for free-space optical (FSO) communication systems using intensity modulation and direct detection (IM/DD) over atmospheric turbulence and misalignment fading channels is presented. Combining TLS and STTC with rate 1 bit/(s · Hz), a new code design criterion based on the use of the largest order statistics is here proposed for multiple-input/single-output (MISO) FSO systems in order to improve the diversity order gain by properly chosing the transmit lasers out of the available L lasers. Based on a pairwise error probability (PEP) analysis, closed-form asymptotic bit error-rate (BER) expressions in the range from low to high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are derived when the irradiance of the transmitted optical beam is susceptible to moderate-to-strong turbulence conditions, following a gamma-gamma (GG) distribution, and pointing error effects, following a misalignment fading model where the effect of beam width, detector size and jitter variance is considered. Obtained results show diversity orders of 2L and 3L when simple two-state and four-state STTCs are considered, respectively. Simulation results are further demonstrated to confirm the analytical results.

Probabilistic Cloning of Three Real States with Optimal Success Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rui, Pin-shu

2017-06-01

We investigate the probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) of three real states with average probability distribution. To get the analytic forms of the optimal success probabilities we assume that the three states have only two pairwise inner products. Based on the optimal success probabilities, we derive the explicit form of 1 →2 PQC for cloning three real states. The unitary operation needed in the PQC process is worked out too. The optimal success probabilities are also generalized to the M→ N PQC case.

Pairwise registration of TLS point clouds using covariance descriptors and a non-cooperative game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zai, Dawei; Li, Jonathan; Guo, Yulan; Cheng, Ming; Huang, Pengdi; Cao, Xiaofei; Wang, Cheng

2017-12-01

It is challenging to automatically register TLS point clouds with noise, outliers and varying overlap. In this paper, we propose a new method for pairwise registration of TLS point clouds. We first generate covariance matrix descriptors with an adaptive neighborhood size from point clouds to find candidate correspondences, we then construct a non-cooperative game to isolate mutual compatible correspondences, which are considered as true positives. The method was tested on three models acquired by two different TLS systems. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed adaptive covariance (ACOV) descriptor is invariant to rigid transformation and robust to noise and varying resolutions. The average registration errors achieved on three models are 0.46 cm, 0.32 cm and 1.73 cm, respectively. The computational times cost on these models are about 288 s, 184 s and 903 s, respectively. Besides, our registration framework using ACOV descriptors and a game theoretic method is superior to the state-of-the-art methods in terms of both registration error and computational time. The experiment on a large outdoor scene further demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of our proposed pairwise registration framework.

Performance analysis of decode-and-forward dual-hop optical spatial modulation with diversity combiner over atmospheric turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odeyemi, Kehinde O.; Owolawi, Pius A.; Srivastava, Viranjay M.

2017-11-01

Dual-hops transmission is a growing interest technique that can be used to mitigate against atmospheric turbulence along the Free Space Optical (FSO) communication links. This paper analyzes the performance of Decode-and-Forward (DF) dual-hops FSO systems in-conjunction with spatial modulation and diversity combiners over a Gamma-Gamma atmospheric turbulence channel using heterodyne detection. Maximum Ratio Combiner (MRC), Equal Gain Combiner (EGC) and Selection Combiner (SC) are considered at the relay and destination as mitigation tools to improve the system error performance. Power series expansion of modified Bessel function is used to derive the closed form expression for the end-to-end Average Pairwise Error Probability (APEP) expressions for each of the combiners under study and a tight upper bound on the Average Bit Error Rate (ABER) per hop is given. Thus, the overall end-to-end ABER for the dual-hops FSO system is then evaluated. The numerical results depicted that dual-hops transmission systems outperformed the direct link systems. Moreover, the impact of having the same and different combiners at the relay and destination are also presented. The results also confirm that the combination of dual hops transmission with spatial modulation and diversity combiner significantly improves the systems error rate with the MRC combiner offering an optimal performance with respect to variation in atmospheric turbulence, change in links average received SNR and link range of the system.

Global adjustment for creating extended panoramic images in video-dermoscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faraz, Khuram; Blondel, Walter; Daul, Christian

2017-07-01

This contribution presents a fast global adjustment scheme exploiting SURF descriptor locations for constructing large skin mosaics. Precision in pairwise image registration is well-preserved while significantly reducing the global mosaicing error.

Adjustment for reporting bias in network meta-analysis of antidepressant trials

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Network meta-analysis (NMA), a generalization of conventional MA, allows for assessing the relative effectiveness of multiple interventions. Reporting bias is a major threat to the validity of MA and NMA. Numerous methods are available to assess the robustness of MA results to reporting bias. We aimed to extend such methods to NMA. Methods We introduced 2 adjustment models for Bayesian NMA. First, we extended a meta-regression model that allows the effect size to depend on its standard error. Second, we used a selection model that estimates the propensity of trial results being published and in which trials with lower propensity are weighted up in the NMA model. Both models rely on the assumption that biases are exchangeable across the network. We applied the models to 2 networks of placebo-controlled trials of 12 antidepressants, with 74 trials in the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) database but only 51 with published results. NMA and adjustment models were used to estimate the effects of the 12 drugs relative to placebo, the 66 effect sizes for all possible pair-wise comparisons between drugs, probabilities of being the best drug and ranking of drugs. We compared the results from the 2 adjustment models applied to published data and NMAs of published data and NMAs of FDA data, considered as representing the totality of the data. Results Both adjustment models showed reduced estimated effects for the 12 drugs relative to the placebo as compared with NMA of published data. Pair-wise effect sizes between drugs, probabilities of being the best drug and ranking of drugs were modified. Estimated drug effects relative to the placebo from both adjustment models were corrected (i.e., similar to those from NMA of FDA data) for some drugs but not others, which resulted in differences in pair-wise effect sizes between drugs and ranking. Conclusions In this case study, adjustment models showed that NMA of published data was not robust to reporting bias and provided estimates closer to that of NMA of FDA data, although not optimal. The validity of such methods depends on the number of trials in the network and the assumption that conventional MAs in the network share a common mean bias mechanism. PMID:23016799

Effective empirical corrections for basis set superposition error in the def2-SVPD basis: gCP and DFT-C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, Jonathon; Neaton, Jeffrey B.; Head-Gordon, Martin

2017-06-01

With the aim of mitigating the basis set error in density functional theory (DFT) calculations employing local basis sets, we herein develop two empirical corrections for basis set superposition error (BSSE) in the def2-SVPD basis, a basis which—when stripped of BSSE—is capable of providing near-complete-basis DFT results for non-covalent interactions. Specifically, we adapt the existing pairwise geometrical counterpoise (gCP) approach to the def2-SVPD basis, and we develop a beyond-pairwise approach, DFT-C, which we parameterize across a small set of intermolecular interactions. Both gCP and DFT-C are evaluated against the traditional Boys-Bernardi counterpoise correction across a set of 3402 non-covalent binding energies and isomerization energies. We find that the DFT-C method represents a significant improvement over gCP, particularly for non-covalently-interacting molecular clusters. Moreover, DFT-C is transferable among density functionals and can be combined with existing functionals—such as B97M-V—to recover large-basis results at a fraction of the cost.

Effectiveness of oral hydration in preventing contrast-induced acute kidney injury in patients undergoing coronary angiography or intervention: a pairwise and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Weidai; Zhang, Jiawei; Yang, Baojun; Wu, Kefei; Lin, Hanfei; Wang, Yanping; Zhou, Lihong; Wang, Huatao; Zeng, Chujuan; Chen, Xiao; Wang, Zhixing; Zhu, Junxing; Songming, Chen

2018-06-01

The effectiveness of oral hydration in preventing contrast-induced acute kidney injury (CI-AKI) in patients undergoing coronary angiography or intervention has not been well established. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy of oral hydration compared with intravenous hydration and other frequently used hydration strategies. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane central register of controlled trials were searched from inception to 8 October 2017. To be eligible for analysis, studies had to evaluate the relative efficacy of different prophylactic hydration strategies. We selected and assessed the studies that fulfilled the inclusion criteria and carried out a pairwise and network meta-analysis using RevMan5.2 and Aggregate Data Drug Information System 1.16.8 software. A total of four studies (538 participants) were included in our pairwise meta-analysis and 1754 participants from eight studies with four frequently used hydration strategies were included in a network meta-analysis. Pairwise meta-analysis indicated that oral hydration was as effective as intravenous hydration for the prevention of CI-AKI (5.88 vs. 8.43%; odds ratio: 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.36-1.47; P>0.05), with no significant heterogeneity between studies. Network meta-analysis showed that there was no significant difference in the prevention of CI-AKI. However, the rank probability plot suggested that oral plus intravenous hydration had a higher probability (51%) of being the best strategy, followed by diuretic plus intravenous hydration (39%) and oral hydration alone (10%). Intravenous hydration alone was the strategy with the highest probability (70%) of being the worst hydration strategy. Our study shows that oral hydration is not inferior to intravenous hydration for the prevention of CI-AKI in patients with normal or mild-to-moderate renal dysfunction undergoing coronary angiography or intervention.

Building dynamic population graph for accurate correspondence detection.

PubMed

Du, Shaoyi; Guo, Yanrong; Sanroma, Gerard; Ni, Dong; Wu, Guorong; Shen, Dinggang

2015-12-01

In medical imaging studies, there is an increasing trend for discovering the intrinsic anatomical difference across individual subjects in a dataset, such as hand images for skeletal bone age estimation. Pair-wise matching is often used to detect correspondences between each individual subject and a pre-selected model image with manually-placed landmarks. However, the large anatomical variability across individual subjects can easily compromise such pair-wise matching step. In this paper, we present a new framework to simultaneously detect correspondences among a population of individual subjects, by propagating all manually-placed landmarks from a small set of model images through a dynamically constructed image graph. Specifically, we first establish graph links between models and individual subjects according to pair-wise shape similarity (called as forward step). Next, we detect correspondences for the individual subjects with direct links to any of model images, which is achieved by a new multi-model correspondence detection approach based on our recently-published sparse point matching method. To correct those inaccurate correspondences, we further apply an error detection mechanism to automatically detect wrong correspondences and then update the image graph accordingly (called as backward step). After that, all subject images with detected correspondences are included into the set of model images, and the above two steps of graph expansion and error correction are repeated until accurate correspondences for all subject images are established. Evaluations on real hand X-ray images demonstrate that our proposed method using a dynamic graph construction approach can achieve much higher accuracy and robustness, when compared with the state-of-the-art pair-wise correspondence detection methods as well as a similar method but using static population graph. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Online Pairwise Learning Algorithms.

PubMed

Ying, Yiming; Zhou, Ding-Xuan

2016-04-01

Pairwise learning usually refers to a learning task that involves a loss function depending on pairs of examples, among which the most notable ones are bipartite ranking, metric learning, and AUC maximization. In this letter we study an online algorithm for pairwise learning with a least-square loss function in an unconstrained setting of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) that we refer to as the Online Pairwise lEaRning Algorithm (OPERA). In contrast to existing works (Kar, Sriperumbudur, Jain, & Karnick, 2013 ; Wang, Khardon, Pechyony, & Jones, 2012 ), which require that the iterates are restricted to a bounded domain or the loss function is strongly convex, OPERA is associated with a non-strongly convex objective function and learns the target function in an unconstrained RKHS. Specifically, we establish a general theorem that guarantees the almost sure convergence for the last iterate of OPERA without any assumptions on the underlying distribution. Explicit convergence rates are derived under the condition of polynomially decaying step sizes. We also establish an interesting property for a family of widely used kernels in the setting of pairwise learning and illustrate the convergence results using such kernels. Our methodology mainly depends on the characterization of RKHSs using its associated integral operators and probability inequalities for random variables with values in a Hilbert space.

Criterion Predictability: Identifying Differences Between [r-squares

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malgady, Robert G.

1976-01-01

An analysis of variance procedure for testing differences in r-squared, the coefficient of determination, across independent samples is proposed and briefly discussed. The principal advantage of the procedure is to minimize Type I error for follow-up tests of pairwise differences. (Author/JKS)

Improving Arterial Spin Labeling by Using Deep Learning.

PubMed

Kim, Ki Hwan; Choi, Seung Hong; Park, Sung-Hong

2018-05-01

Purpose To develop a deep learning algorithm that generates arterial spin labeling (ASL) perfusion images with higher accuracy and robustness by using a smaller number of subtraction images. Materials and Methods For ASL image generation from pair-wise subtraction, we used a convolutional neural network (CNN) as a deep learning algorithm. The ground truth perfusion images were generated by averaging six or seven pairwise subtraction images acquired with (a) conventional pseudocontinuous arterial spin labeling from seven healthy subjects or (b) Hadamard-encoded pseudocontinuous ASL from 114 patients with various diseases. CNNs were trained to generate perfusion images from a smaller number (two or three) of subtraction images and evaluated by means of cross-validation. CNNs from the patient data sets were also tested on 26 separate stroke data sets. CNNs were compared with the conventional averaging method in terms of mean square error and radiologic score by using a paired t test and/or Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results Mean square errors were approximately 40% lower than those of the conventional averaging method for the cross-validation with the healthy subjects and patients and the separate test with the patients who had experienced a stroke (P < .001). Region-of-interest analysis in stroke regions showed that cerebral blood flow maps from CNN (mean ± standard deviation, 19.7 mL per 100 g/min ± 9.7) had smaller mean square errors than those determined with the conventional averaging method (43.2 ± 29.8) (P < .001). Radiologic scoring demonstrated that CNNs suppressed noise and motion and/or segmentation artifacts better than the conventional averaging method did (P < .001). Conclusion CNNs provided superior perfusion image quality and more accurate perfusion measurement compared with those of the conventional averaging method for generation of ASL images from pair-wise subtraction images. © RSNA, 2017.

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

Quantum error-correcting code for ternary logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majumdar, Ritajit; Basu, Saikat; Ghosh, Shibashis; Sur-Kolay, Susmita

2018-05-01

Ternary quantum systems are being studied because they provide more computational state space per unit of information, known as qutrit. A qutrit has three basis states, thus a qubit may be considered as a special case of a qutrit where the coefficient of one of the basis states is zero. Hence both (2 ×2 ) -dimensional and (3 ×3 ) -dimensional Pauli errors can occur on qutrits. In this paper, we (i) explore the possible (2 ×2 ) -dimensional as well as (3 ×3 ) -dimensional Pauli errors in qutrits and show that any pairwise bit swap error can be expressed as a linear combination of shift errors and phase errors, (ii) propose a special type of error called a quantum superposition error and show its equivalence to arbitrary rotation, (iii) formulate a nine-qutrit code which can correct a single error in a qutrit, and (iv) provide its stabilizer and circuit realization.

A strategy for reducing gross errors in the generalized Born models of implicit solvation

PubMed Central

Onufriev, Alexey V.; Sigalov, Grigori

2011-01-01

The “canonical” generalized Born (GB) formula [C. Still, A. Tempczyk, R. C. Hawley, and T. Hendrickson, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 112, 6127 (1990)] is known to provide accurate estimates for total electrostatic solvation energies ΔGel of biomolecules if the corresponding effective Born radii are accurate. Here we show that even if the effective Born radii are perfectly accurate, the canonical formula still exhibits significant number of gross errors (errors larger than 2kBT relative to numerical Poisson equation reference) in pairwise interactions between individual atomic charges. Analysis of exact analytical solutions of the Poisson equation (PE) for several idealized nonspherical geometries reveals two distinct spatial modes of the PE solution; these modes are also found in realistic biomolecular shapes. The canonical GB Green function misses one of two modes seen in the exact PE solution, which explains the observed gross errors. To address the problem and reduce gross errors of the GB formalism, we have used exact PE solutions for idealized nonspherical geometries to suggest an alternative analytical Green function to replace the canonical GB formula. The proposed functional form is mathematically nearly as simple as the original, but depends not only on the effective Born radii but also on their gradients, which allows for better representation of details of nonspherical molecular shapes. In particular, the proposed functional form captures both modes of the PE solution seen in nonspherical geometries. Tests on realistic biomolecular structures ranging from small peptides to medium size proteins show that the proposed functional form reduces gross pairwise errors in all cases, with the amount of reduction varying from more than an order of magnitude for small structures to a factor of 2 for the largest ones. PMID:21528947

The rise and fall of a challenger: the Bullet Cluster in Λ cold dark matter simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Robert; Davé, Romeel; Nagamine, Kentaro

2015-09-01

The Bullet Cluster has provided some of the best evidence for the Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model via direct empirical proof of the existence of collisionless dark matter, while posing a serious challenge owing to the unusually high inferred pairwise velocities of its progenitor clusters. Here, we investigate the probability of finding such a high-velocity pair in large-volume N-body simulations, particularly focusing on differences between halo-finding algorithms. We find that algorithms that do not account for the kinematics of infalling groups yield vastly different statistics and probabilities. When employing the ROCKSTAR halo finder that considers particle velocities, we find numerous Bullet-like pair candidates that closely match not only the high pairwise velocity, but also the mass, mass ratio, separation distance, and collision angle of the initial conditions that have been shown to produce the Bullet Cluster in non-cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The probability of finding a high pairwise velocity pair among haloes with Mhalo ≥ 1014 M⊙ is 4.6 × 10-4 using ROCKSTAR, while it is ≈34 × lower using a friends-of-friends (FoF)-based approach as in previous studies. This is because the typical spatial extent of Bullet progenitors is such that FoF tends to group them into a single halo despite clearly distinct kinematics. Further requiring an appropriately high average mass among the two progenitors, we find the comoving number density of potential Bullet-like candidates to be of the order of ≈10-10 Mpc-3. Our findings suggest that ΛCDM straightforwardly produces massive, high relative velocity halo pairs analogous to Bullet Cluster progenitors, and hence the Bullet Cluster does not present a challenge to the ΛCDM model.

Multicategory nets of single-layer perceptrons: complexity and sample-size issues.

PubMed

Raudys, Sarunas; Kybartas, Rimantas; Zavadskas, Edmundas Kazimieras

2010-05-01

The standard cost function of multicategory single-layer perceptrons (SLPs) does not minimize the classification error rate. In order to reduce classification error, it is necessary to: 1) refuse the traditional cost function, 2) obtain near to optimal pairwise linear classifiers by specially organized SLP training and optimal stopping, and 3) fuse their decisions properly. To obtain better classification in unbalanced training set situations, we introduce the unbalance correcting term. It was found that fusion based on the Kulback-Leibler (K-L) distance and the Wu-Lin-Weng (WLW) method result in approximately the same performance in situations where sample sizes are relatively small. The explanation for this observation is by theoretically known verity that an excessive minimization of inexact criteria becomes harmful at times. Comprehensive comparative investigations of six real-world pattern recognition (PR) problems demonstrated that employment of SLP-based pairwise classifiers is comparable and as often as not outperforming the linear support vector (SV) classifiers in moderate dimensional situations. The colored noise injection used to design pseudovalidation sets proves to be a powerful tool for facilitating finite sample problems in moderate-dimensional PR tasks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelbe, David; Oak Ridge National Lab.; van Aardt, Jan

Terrestrial laser scanning has demonstrated increasing potential for rapid comprehensive measurement of forest structure, especially when multiple scans are spatially registered in order to reduce the limitations of occlusion. Although marker-based registration techniques (based on retro-reflective spherical targets) are commonly used in practice, a blind marker-free approach is preferable, insofar as it supports rapid operational data acquisition. To support these efforts, we extend the pairwise registration approach of our earlier work, and develop a graph-theoretical framework to perform blind marker-free global registration of multiple point cloud data sets. Pairwise pose estimates are weighted based on their estimated error, in ordermore » to overcome pose conflict while exploiting redundant information and improving precision. The proposed approach was tested for eight diverse New England forest sites, with 25 scans collected at each site. Quantitative assessment was provided via a novel embedded confidence metric, with a mean estimated root-mean-square error of 7.2 cm and 89% of scans connected to the reference node. Lastly, this paper assesses the validity of the embedded multiview registration confidence metric and evaluates the performance of the proposed registration algorithm.« less

Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

PubMed

Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

2016-04-01

A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

Performance of concatenated Reed-Solomon/Viterbi channel coding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, D.; Yuen, J. H.

1982-01-01

The concatenated Reed-Solomon (RS)/Viterbi coding system is reviewed. The performance of the system is analyzed and results are derived with a new simple approach. A functional model for the input RS symbol error probability is presented. Based on this new functional model, we compute the performance of a concatenated system in terms of RS word error probability, output RS symbol error probability, bit error probability due to decoding failure, and bit error probability due to decoding error. Finally we analyze the effects of the noisy carrier reference and the slow fading on the system performance.

Random walk in generalized quantum theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Xavier; O'Connor, Denjoe; Sorkin, Rafael D.

2005-01-01

One can view quantum mechanics as a generalization of classical probability theory that provides for pairwise interference among alternatives. Adopting this perspective, we “quantize” the classical random walk by finding, subject to a certain condition of “strong positivity”, the most general Markovian, translationally invariant “decoherence functional” with nearest neighbor transitions.

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

related: an R package for analysing pairwise relatedness from codominant molecular markers.

PubMed

Pew, Jack; Muir, Paul H; Wang, Jinliang; Frasier, Timothy R

2015-05-01

Analyses of pairwise relatedness represent a key component to addressing many topics in biology. However, such analyses have been limited because most available programs provide a means to estimate relatedness based on only a single estimator, making comparison across estimators difficult. Second, all programs to date have been platform specific, working only on a specific operating system. This has the undesirable outcome of making choice of relatedness estimator limited by operating system preference, rather than being based on scientific rationale. Here, we present a new R package, called related, that can calculate relatedness based on seven estimators, can account for genotyping errors, missing data and inbreeding, and can estimate 95% confidence intervals. Moreover, simulation functions are provided that allow for easy comparison of the performance of different estimators and for analyses of how much resolution to expect from a given data set. Because this package works in R, it is platform independent. Combined, this functionality should allow for more appropriate analyses and interpretation of pairwise relatedness and will also allow for the integration of relatedness data into larger R workflows. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Procedure for Testing the Difference between Effect Sizes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert, Richard G.; Flowers, Claudia

A special case of the homogeneity of effect size test, as applied to pairwise comparisons of standardized mean differences, was evaluated. Procedures for comparing pairs of pretest to posttest effect sizes, as well as pairs of treatment versus control group effect sizes, were examined. Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate Type I error rates…

Species detection and identification in sexual organisms using population genetic theory and DNA sequences.

PubMed

Birky, C William

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic trees of DNA sequences of a group of specimens may include clades of two kinds: those produced by stochastic processes (random genetic drift) within a species, and clades that represent different species. The ratio of the mean pairwise sequence difference between a pair of clades (K) to the mean pairwise sequence difference within a clade (θ) can be used to determine whether the clades are samples from different species (K/θ ≥ 4) or the same species (K/θ<4) with probability ≥ 0.95. Previously I applied this criterion to delimit species of asexual organisms. Here I use data from the literature to show how it can also be applied to delimit sexual species using four groups of sexual organisms as examples: ravens, spotted leopards, sea butterflies, and liverworts. Mitochondrial or chloroplast genes are used because these segregate earlier during speciation than most nuclear genes and hence detect earlier stages of speciation. In several cases the K/θ ratio was greater than 4, confirming the original authors' intuition that the clades were sufficiently different to be assigned to different species. But the K/θ ratio split each of two liverwort species into two evolutionary species, and showed that support for the distinction between the common and Chihuahuan raven species is weak. I also discuss some possible sources of error in using the K/θ ratio; the most significant one would be cases where males migrate between different populations but females do not, making the use of maternally inherited organelle genes problematic. The K/θ ratio must be used with some caution, like all other methods for species delimitation. Nevertheless, it is a simple theory-based quantitative method for using DNA sequences to make rigorous decisions about species delimitation in sexual as well as asexual eukaryotes.

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Neural Activity from Pairwise Correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marre, O.; El Boustani, S.; Fregnac, Y.

We designed a model-based analysis to predict the occurrence of population patterns in distributed spiking activity. Using a maximum entropy principle with a Markovian assumption, we obtain a model that accounts for both spatial and temporal pairwise correlations among neurons. This model is tested on data generated with a Glauber spin-glass system and is shown to correctly predict the occurrence probabilities of spatiotemporal patterns significantly better than Ising models only based on spatial correlations. This increase of predictability was also observed on experimental data recorded in parietal cortex during slow-wave sleep. This approach can also be used to generate surrogatesmore » that reproduce the spatial and temporal correlations of a given data set.« less

Collective translational and rotational Monte Carlo cluster move for general pairwise interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Růžička, Štěpán; Allen, Michael P.

2014-09-01

Virtual move Monte Carlo is a cluster algorithm which was originally developed for strongly attractive colloidal, molecular, or atomistic systems in order to both approximate the collective dynamics and avoid sampling of unphysical kinetic traps. In this paper, we present the algorithm in the form, which selects the moving cluster through a wider class of virtual states and which is applicable to general pairwise interactions, including hard-core repulsion. The newly proposed way of selecting the cluster increases the acceptance probability by up to several orders of magnitude, especially for rotational moves. The results have their applications in simulations of systems interacting via anisotropic potentials both to enhance the sampling of the phase space and to approximate the dynamics.

Memory-efficient dynamic programming backtrace and pairwise local sequence alignment.

PubMed

Newberg, Lee A

2008-08-15

A backtrace through a dynamic programming algorithm's intermediate results in search of an optimal path, or to sample paths according to an implied probability distribution, or as the second stage of a forward-backward algorithm, is a task of fundamental importance in computational biology. When there is insufficient space to store all intermediate results in high-speed memory (e.g. cache) existing approaches store selected stages of the computation, and recompute missing values from these checkpoints on an as-needed basis. Here we present an optimal checkpointing strategy, and demonstrate its utility with pairwise local sequence alignment of sequences of length 10,000. Sample C++-code for optimal backtrace is available in the Supplementary Materials. Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online.

Multiview marker-free registration of forest terrestrial laser scanner data with embedded confidence metrics

DOE PAGES

Kelbe, David; Oak Ridge National Lab.; van Aardt, Jan; ...

2016-10-18

Terrestrial laser scanning has demonstrated increasing potential for rapid comprehensive measurement of forest structure, especially when multiple scans are spatially registered in order to reduce the limitations of occlusion. Although marker-based registration techniques (based on retro-reflective spherical targets) are commonly used in practice, a blind marker-free approach is preferable, insofar as it supports rapid operational data acquisition. To support these efforts, we extend the pairwise registration approach of our earlier work, and develop a graph-theoretical framework to perform blind marker-free global registration of multiple point cloud data sets. Pairwise pose estimates are weighted based on their estimated error, in ordermore » to overcome pose conflict while exploiting redundant information and improving precision. The proposed approach was tested for eight diverse New England forest sites, with 25 scans collected at each site. Quantitative assessment was provided via a novel embedded confidence metric, with a mean estimated root-mean-square error of 7.2 cm and 89% of scans connected to the reference node. Lastly, this paper assesses the validity of the embedded multiview registration confidence metric and evaluates the performance of the proposed registration algorithm.« less

Array coding for large data memories

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tranter, W. H.

1982-01-01

It is pointed out that an array code is a convenient method for storing large quantities of data. In a typical application, the array consists of N data words having M symbols in each word. The probability of undetected error is considered, taking into account three symbol error probabilities which are of interest, and a formula for determining the probability of undetected error. Attention is given to the possibility of reading data into the array using a digital communication system with symbol error probability p. Two different schemes are found to be of interest. The conducted analysis of array coding shows that the probability of undetected error is very small even for relatively large arrays.

SFESA: a web server for pairwise alignment refinement by secondary structure shifts.

PubMed

Tong, Jing; Pei, Jimin; Grishin, Nick V

2015-09-03

Protein sequence alignment is essential for a variety of tasks such as homology modeling and active site prediction. Alignment errors remain the main cause of low-quality structure models. A bioinformatics tool to refine alignments is needed to make protein alignments more accurate. We developed the SFESA web server to refine pairwise protein sequence alignments. Compared to the previous version of SFESA, which required a set of 3D coordinates for a protein, the new server will search a sequence database for the closest homolog with an available 3D structure to be used as a template. For each alignment block defined by secondary structure elements in the template, SFESA evaluates alignment variants generated by local shifts and selects the best-scoring alignment variant. A scoring function that combines the sequence score of profile-profile comparison and the structure score of template-derived contact energy is used for evaluation of alignments. PROMALS pairwise alignments refined by SFESA are more accurate than those produced by current advanced alignment methods such as HHpred and CNFpred. In addition, SFESA also improves alignments generated by other software. SFESA is a web-based tool for alignment refinement, designed for researchers to compute, refine, and evaluate pairwise alignments with a combined sequence and structure scoring of alignment blocks. To our knowledge, the SFESA web server is the only tool that refines alignments by evaluating local shifts of secondary structure elements. The SFESA web server is available at http://prodata.swmed.edu/sfesa.

Potential benefit of electronic pharmacy claims data to prevent medication history errors and resultant inpatient order errors

PubMed Central

Palmer, Katherine A; Shane, Rita; Wu, Cindy N; Bell, Douglas S; Diaz, Frank; Cook-Wiens, Galen; Jackevicius, Cynthia A

2016-01-01

Objective We sought to assess the potential of a widely available source of electronic medication data to prevent medication history errors and resultant inpatient order errors. Methods We used admission medication history (AMH) data from a recent clinical trial that identified 1017 AMH errors and 419 resultant inpatient order errors among 194 hospital admissions of predominantly older adult patients on complex medication regimens. Among the subset of patients for whom we could access current Surescripts electronic pharmacy claims data (SEPCD), two pharmacists independently assessed error severity and our main outcome, which was whether SEPCD (1) was unrelated to the medication error; (2) probably would not have prevented the error; (3) might have prevented the error; or (4) probably would have prevented the error. Results Seventy patients had both AMH errors and current, accessible SEPCD. SEPCD probably would have prevented 110 (35%) of 315 AMH errors and 46 (31%) of 147 resultant inpatient order errors. When we excluded the least severe medication errors, SEPCD probably would have prevented 99 (47%) of 209 AMH errors and 37 (61%) of 61 resultant inpatient order errors. SEPCD probably would have prevented at least one AMH error in 42 (60%) of 70 patients. Conclusion When current SEPCD was available for older adult patients on complex medication regimens, it had substantial potential to prevent AMH errors and resultant inpatient order errors, with greater potential to prevent more severe errors. Further study is needed to measure the benefit of SEPCD in actual use at hospital admission. PMID:26911817

Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

2018-05-01

The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes. Part 3; The Map and Related Decoding Algirithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc

1998-01-01

In a coded communication system with equiprobable signaling, MLD minimizes the word error probability and delivers the most likely codeword associated with the corresponding received sequence. This decoding has two drawbacks. First, minimization of the word error probability is not equivalent to minimization of the bit error probability. Therefore, MLD becomes suboptimum with respect to the bit error probability. Second, MLD delivers a hard-decision estimate of the received sequence, so that information is lost between the input and output of the ML decoder. This information is important in coded schemes where the decoded sequence is further processed, such as concatenated coding schemes, multi-stage and iterative decoding schemes. In this chapter, we first present a decoding algorithm which both minimizes bit error probability, and provides the corresponding soft information at the output of the decoder. This algorithm is referred to as the MAP (maximum aposteriori probability) decoding algorithm.

A Hybrid Physics-Based Data-Driven Approach for Point-Particle Force Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Chandler; Akiki, Georges; Balachandar, S.

2017-11-01

This study improves upon the physics-based pairwise interaction extended point-particle (PIEP) model. The PIEP model leverages a physical framework to predict fluid mediated interactions between solid particles. While the PIEP model is a powerful tool, its pairwise assumption leads to increased error in flows with high particle volume fractions. To reduce this error, a regression algorithm is used to model the differences between the current PIEP model's predictions and the results of direct numerical simulations (DNS) for an array of monodisperse solid particles subjected to various flow conditions. The resulting statistical model and the physical PIEP model are superimposed to construct a hybrid, physics-based data-driven PIEP model. It must be noted that the performance of a pure data-driven approach without the model-form provided by the physical PIEP model is substantially inferior. The hybrid model's predictive capabilities are analyzed using more DNS. In every case tested, the hybrid PIEP model's prediction are more accurate than those of physical PIEP model. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-1315138 and the U.S. DOE, NNSA, ASC Program, as a Cooperative Agreement under Contract No. DE-NA0002378.

Kernel Machine SNP-set Testing under Multiple Candidate Kernels

PubMed Central

Wu, Michael C.; Maity, Arnab; Lee, Seunggeun; Simmons, Elizabeth M.; Harmon, Quaker E.; Lin, Xinyi; Engel, Stephanie M.; Molldrem, Jeffrey J.; Armistead, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Joint testing for the cumulative effect of multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms grouped on the basis of prior biological knowledge has become a popular and powerful strategy for the analysis of large scale genetic association studies. The kernel machine (KM) testing framework is a useful approach that has been proposed for testing associations between multiple genetic variants and many different types of complex traits by comparing pairwise similarity in phenotype between subjects to pairwise similarity in genotype, with similarity in genotype defined via a kernel function. An advantage of the KM framework is its flexibility: choosing different kernel functions allows for different assumptions concerning the underlying model and can allow for improved power. In practice, it is difficult to know which kernel to use a priori since this depends on the unknown underlying trait architecture and selecting the kernel which gives the lowest p-value can lead to inflated type I error. Therefore, we propose practical strategies for KM testing when multiple candidate kernels are present based on constructing composite kernels and based on efficient perturbation procedures. We demonstrate through simulations and real data applications that the procedures protect the type I error rate and can lead to substantially improved power over poor choices of kernels and only modest differences in power versus using the best candidate kernel. PMID:23471868

Investigating the Relationship between Conceptual and Procedural Errors in the Domain of Probability Problem-Solving.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connell, Ann Aileen

The relationships among types of errors observed during probability problem solving were studied. Subjects were 50 graduate students in an introductory probability and statistics course. Errors were classified as text comprehension, conceptual, procedural, and arithmetic. Canonical correlation analysis was conducted on the frequencies of specific…

Pairwise additivity of energy components in protein-ligand binding: The HIV II protease-Indinavir case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ucisik, Melek N.; Dashti, Danial S.; Faver, John C.; Merz, Kenneth M.

2011-08-01

An energy expansion (binding energy decomposition into n-body interaction terms for n ≥ 2) to express the receptor-ligand binding energy for the fragmented HIV II protease-Indinavir system is described to address the role of cooperativity in ligand binding. The outcome of this energy expansion is compared to the total receptor-ligand binding energy at the Hartree-Fock, density functional theory, and semiempirical levels of theory. We find that the sum of the pairwise interaction energies approximates the total binding energy to ˜82% for HF and to >95% for both the M06-L density functional and PM6-DH2 semiempirical method. The contribution of the three-body interactions amounts to 18.7%, 3.8%, and 1.4% for HF, M06-L, and PM6-DH2, respectively. We find that the expansion can be safely truncated after n = 3. That is, the contribution of the interactions involving more than three parties to the total binding energy of Indinavir to the HIV II protease receptor is negligible. Overall, we find that the two-body terms represent a good approximation to the total binding energy of the system, which points to pairwise additivity in the present case. This basic principle of pairwise additivity is utilized in fragment-based drug design approaches and our results support its continued use. The present results can also aid in the validation of non-bonded terms contained within common force fields and in the correction of systematic errors in physics-based score functions.

Fisher classifier and its probability of error estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

Computationally efficient expressions are derived for estimating the probability of error using the leave-one-out method. The optimal threshold for the classification of patterns projected onto Fisher's direction is derived. A simple generalization of the Fisher classifier to multiple classes is presented. Computational expressions are developed for estimating the probability of error of the multiclass Fisher classifier.

Measurement of the Errors of Service Altimeter Installations During Landing-Approach and Take-Off Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gracey, William; Jewel, Joseph W., Jr.; Carpenter, Gene T.

1960-01-01

The overall errors of the service altimeter installations of a variety of civil transport, military, and general-aviation airplanes have been experimentally determined during normal landing-approach and take-off operations. The average height above the runway at which the data were obtained was about 280 feet for the landings and about 440 feet for the take-offs. An analysis of the data obtained from 196 airplanes during 415 landing approaches and from 70 airplanes during 152 take-offs showed that: 1. The overall error of the altimeter installations in the landing- approach condition had a probable value (50 percent probability) of +/- 36 feet and a maximum probable value (99.7 percent probability) of +/- 159 feet with a bias of +10 feet. 2. The overall error in the take-off condition had a probable value of +/- 47 feet and a maximum probable value of +/- 207 feet with a bias of -33 feet. 3. The overall errors of the military airplanes were generally larger than those of the civil transports in both the landing-approach and take-off conditions. In the landing-approach condition the probable error and the maximum probable error of the military airplanes were +/- 43 and +/- 189 feet, respectively, with a bias of +15 feet, whereas those for the civil transports were +/- 22 and +/- 96 feet, respectively, with a bias of +1 foot. 4. The bias values of the error distributions (+10 feet for the landings and -33 feet for the take-offs) appear to represent a measure of the hysteresis characteristics (after effect and recovery) and friction of the instrument and the pressure lag of the tubing-instrument system.

Identification and assessment of common errors in the admission process of patients in Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center based on "failure modes and effects analysis".

PubMed

Dehghan, Ashraf; Abumasoudi, Rouhollah Sheikh; Ehsanpour, Soheila

2016-01-01

Infertility and errors in the process of its treatment have a negative impact on infertile couples. The present study was aimed to identify and assess the common errors in the reception process by applying the approach of "failure modes and effects analysis" (FMEA). In this descriptive cross-sectional study, the admission process of fertility and infertility center of Isfahan was selected for evaluation of its errors based on the team members' decision. At first, the admission process was charted through observations and interviewing employees, holding multiple panels, and using FMEA worksheet, which has been used in many researches all over the world and also in Iran. Its validity was evaluated through content and face validity, and its reliability was evaluated through reviewing and confirmation of the obtained information by the FMEA team, and eventually possible errors, causes, and three indicators of severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection were determined and corrective actions were proposed. Data analysis was determined by the number of risk priority (RPN) which is calculated by multiplying the severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection. Twenty-five errors with RPN ≥ 125 was detected through the admission process, in which six cases of error had high priority in terms of severity and occurrence probability and were identified as high-risk errors. The team-oriented method of FMEA could be useful for assessment of errors and also to reduce the occurrence probability of errors.

Identification and assessment of common errors in the admission process of patients in Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center based on “failure modes and effects analysis”

PubMed Central

Dehghan, Ashraf; Abumasoudi, Rouhollah Sheikh; Ehsanpour, Soheila

2016-01-01

Background: Infertility and errors in the process of its treatment have a negative impact on infertile couples. The present study was aimed to identify and assess the common errors in the reception process by applying the approach of “failure modes and effects analysis” (FMEA). Materials and Methods: In this descriptive cross-sectional study, the admission process of fertility and infertility center of Isfahan was selected for evaluation of its errors based on the team members’ decision. At first, the admission process was charted through observations and interviewing employees, holding multiple panels, and using FMEA worksheet, which has been used in many researches all over the world and also in Iran. Its validity was evaluated through content and face validity, and its reliability was evaluated through reviewing and confirmation of the obtained information by the FMEA team, and eventually possible errors, causes, and three indicators of severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection were determined and corrective actions were proposed. Data analysis was determined by the number of risk priority (RPN) which is calculated by multiplying the severity of effect, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection. Results: Twenty-five errors with RPN ≥ 125 was detected through the admission process, in which six cases of error had high priority in terms of severity and occurrence probability and were identified as high-risk errors. Conclusions: The team-oriented method of FMEA could be useful for assessment of errors and also to reduce the occurrence probability of errors. PMID:28194208

Will kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich measurements enhance the science return from galaxy redshift surveys?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sugiyama, Naonori S.; Okumura, Teppei; Spergel, David N., E-mail: nao.s.sugiyama@gmail.com, E-mail: tokumura@asiaa.sinica.edu.tw, E-mail: dns@astro.princeton.edu

2017-01-01

Yes. Future CMB experiments such as Advanced ACTPol and CMB-S4 should achieve measurements with S/N of > 0.1 for the typical host halo of galaxies in redshift surveys. These measurements will provide complementary measurements of the growth rate of large scale structure f and the expansion rate of the Universe H to galaxy clustering measurements. This paper emphasizes that there is significant information in the anisotropy of the relative pairwise kSZ measurements. We expand the relative pairwise kSZ power spectrum in Legendre polynomials and consider up to its octopole. Assuming that the noise in the filtered maps is uncorrelated betweenmore » the positions of galaxies in the survey, we derive a simple analytic form for the power spectrum covariance of the relative pairwise kSZ temperature in redshift space. While many previous studies have assumed optimistically that the optical depth of the galaxies τ{sub T} in the survey is known, we marginalize over τ{sub T}, to compute constraints on the growth rate f and the expansion rate H . For realistic survey parameters, we find that combining kSZ and galaxy redshift survey data reduces the marginalized 1-σ errors on H and f to ∼50-70% compared to the galaxy-only analysis.« less

Will kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich measurements enhance the science return from galaxy redshift surveys?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Naonori S.; Okumura, Teppei; Spergel, David N.

2017-01-01

Yes. Future CMB experiments such as Advanced ACTPol and CMB-S4 should achieve measurements with S/N of > 0.1 for the typical host halo of galaxies in redshift surveys. These measurements will provide complementary measurements of the growth rate of large scale structure f and the expansion rate of the Universe H to galaxy clustering measurements. This paper emphasizes that there is significant information in the anisotropy of the relative pairwise kSZ measurements. We expand the relative pairwise kSZ power spectrum in Legendre polynomials and consider up to its octopole. Assuming that the noise in the filtered maps is uncorrelated between the positions of galaxies in the survey, we derive a simple analytic form for the power spectrum covariance of the relative pairwise kSZ temperature in redshift space. While many previous studies have assumed optimistically that the optical depth of the galaxies τT in the survey is known, we marginalize over τT, to compute constraints on the growth rate f and the expansion rate H. For realistic survey parameters, we find that combining kSZ and galaxy redshift survey data reduces the marginalized 1-σ errors on H and f to ~50-70% compared to the galaxy-only analysis.

Does a better model yield a better argument? An info-gap analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2017-04-01

Theories, models and computations underlie reasoned argumentation in many areas. The possibility of error in these arguments, though of low probability, may be highly significant when the argument is used in predicting the probability of rare high-consequence events. This implies that the choice of a theory, model or computational method for predicting rare high-consequence events must account for the probability of error in these components. However, error may result from lack of knowledge or surprises of various sorts, and predicting the probability of error is highly uncertain. We show that the putatively best, most innovative and sophisticated argument may not actually have the lowest probability of error. Innovative arguments may entail greater uncertainty than more standard but less sophisticated methods, creating an innovation dilemma in formulating the argument. We employ info-gap decision theory to characterize and support the resolution of this problem and present several examples.

Error Patterns in Ordering Fractions among At-Risk Fourth-Grade Students

PubMed Central

Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2016-01-01

The 3 purposes of this study were to: (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk 4th-grade students; (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors; and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability of committing errors. Students (n = 227) completed a 9-item ordering test. A high proportion (81%) of problems were completed incorrectly. Most (65% of) errors were due to students misapplying whole number logic to fractions. Fraction-magnitude estimation skill, but not part-whole understanding, significantly predicted the probability of committing this type of error. Implications for practice are discussed. PMID:26966153

Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

PubMed Central

Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

2015-01-01

Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

Design of an activity landscape view taking compound-based feature probabilities into account.

PubMed

Zhang, Bijun; Vogt, Martin; Bajorath, Jürgen

2014-09-01

Activity landscapes (ALs) of compound data sets are rationalized as graphical representations that integrate similarity and potency relationships between active compounds. ALs enable the visualization of structure-activity relationship (SAR) information and are thus computational tools of interest for medicinal chemistry. For AL generation, similarity and potency relationships are typically evaluated in a pairwise manner and major AL features are assessed at the level of compound pairs. In this study, we add a conditional probability formalism to AL design that makes it possible to quantify the probability of individual compounds to contribute to characteristic AL features. Making this information graphically accessible in a molecular network-based AL representation is shown to further increase AL information content and helps to quickly focus on SAR-informative compound subsets. This feature probability-based AL variant extends the current spectrum of AL representations for medicinal chemistry applications.

Probability of undetected error after decoding for a concatenated coding scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if the outer code detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error is derived and bounded. A particular example, proposed for NASA telecommand system is analyzed.

From micro-correlations to macro-correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: iddo.eliazar@intel.com

2016-11-15

Random vectors with a symmetric correlation structure share a common value of pair-wise correlation between their different components. The symmetric correlation structure appears in a multitude of settings, e.g. mixture models. In a mixture model the components of the random vector are drawn independently from a general probability distribution that is determined by an underlying parameter, and the parameter itself is randomized. In this paper we study the overall correlation of high-dimensional random vectors with a symmetric correlation structure. Considering such a random vector, and terming its pair-wise correlation “micro-correlation”, we use an asymptotic analysis to derive the random vector’smore » “macro-correlation” : a score that takes values in the unit interval, and that quantifies the random vector’s overall correlation. The method of obtaining macro-correlations from micro-correlations is then applied to a diverse collection of frameworks that demonstrate the method’s wide applicability.« less

Solution to urn models of pairwise interaction with application to social, physical, and biological sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pickering, William; Lim, Chjan

2017-07-01

We investigate a family of urn models that correspond to one-dimensional random walks with quadratic transition probabilities that have highly diverse applications. Well-known instances of these two-urn models are the Ehrenfest model of molecular diffusion, the voter model of social influence, and the Moran model of population genetics. We also provide a generating function method for diagonalizing the corresponding transition matrix that is valid if and only if the underlying mean density satisfies a linear differential equation and express the eigenvector components as terms of ordinary hypergeometric functions. The nature of the models lead to a natural extension to interaction between agents in a general network topology. We analyze the dynamics on uncorrelated heterogeneous degree sequence networks and relate the convergence times to the moments of the degree sequences for various pairwise interaction mechanisms.

Independence and totalness of subspaces in phase space methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vourdas, A.

2018-04-01

The concepts of independence and totalness of subspaces are introduced in the context of quasi-probability distributions in phase space, for quantum systems with finite-dimensional Hilbert space. It is shown that due to the non-distributivity of the lattice of subspaces, there are various levels of independence, from pairwise independence up to (full) independence. Pairwise totalness, totalness and other intermediate concepts are also introduced, which roughly express that the subspaces overlap strongly among themselves, and they cover the full Hilbert space. A duality between independence and totalness, that involves orthocomplementation (logical NOT operation), is discussed. Another approach to independence is also studied, using Rota's formalism on independent partitions of the Hilbert space. This is used to define informational independence, which is proved to be equivalent to independence. As an application, the pentagram (used in discussions on contextuality) is analysed using these concepts.

Evaluation of advanced multiplex short tandem repeat systems in pairwise kinship analysis.

PubMed

Tamura, Tomonori; Osawa, Motoki; Ochiai, Eriko; Suzuki, Takanori; Nakamura, Takashi

2015-09-01

The AmpFLSTR Identifiler Kit, comprising 15 autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) loci, is commonly employed in forensic practice for calculating match probabilities and parentage testing. The conventional system exhibits insufficient estimation for kinship analysis such as sibship testing because of shortness of examined loci. This study evaluated the power of the PowerPlex Fusion System, GlobalFiler Kit, and PowerPlex 21 System, which comprise more than 20 autosomal STR loci, to estimate pairwise blood relatedness (i.e., parent-child, full siblings, second-degree relatives, and first cousins). The genotypes of all 24 STR loci in 10,000 putative pedigrees were constructed by simulation. The likelihood ratio for each locus was calculated from joint probabilities for relatives and non-relatives. The combined likelihood ratio was calculated according to the product rule. The addition of STR loci improved separation between relatives and non-relatives. However, these systems were less effectively extended to the inference for first cousins. In conclusion, these advanced systems will be useful in forensic personal identification, especially in the evaluation of full siblings and second-degree relatives. Moreover, the additional loci may give rise to two major issues of more frequent mutational events and several pairs of linked loci on the same chromosome. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Novel presentational approaches were developed for reporting network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tan, Sze Huey; Cooper, Nicola J; Bujkiewicz, Sylwia; Welton, Nicky J; Caldwell, Deborah M; Sutton, Alexander J

2014-06-01

To present graphical tools for reporting network meta-analysis (NMA) results aiming to increase the accessibility, transparency, interpretability, and acceptability of NMA analyses. The key components of NMA results were identified based on recommendations by agencies such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (United Kingdom). Three novel graphs were designed to amalgamate the identified components using familiar graphical tools such as the bar, line, or pie charts and adhering to good graphical design principles. Three key components for presentation of NMA results were identified, namely relative effects and their uncertainty, probability of an intervention being best, and between-study heterogeneity. Two of the three graphs developed present results (for each pairwise comparison of interventions in the network) obtained from both NMA and standard pairwise meta-analysis for easy comparison. They also include options to display the probability best, ranking statistics, heterogeneity, and prediction intervals. The third graph presents rankings of interventions in terms of their effectiveness to enable clinicians to easily identify "top-ranking" interventions. The graphical tools presented can display results tailored to the research question of interest, and targeted at a whole spectrum of users from the technical analyst to the nontechnical clinician. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unmodeled observation error induces bias when inferring patterns and dynamics of species occurrence via aural detections

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2010-01-01

The recent surge in the development and application of species occurrence models has been associated with an acknowledgment among ecologists that species are detected imperfectly due to observation error. Standard models now allow unbiased estimation of occupancy probability when false negative detections occur, but this is conditional on no false positive detections and sufficient incorporation of explanatory variables for the false negative detection process. These assumptions are likely reasonable in many circumstances, but there is mounting evidence that false positive errors and detection probability heterogeneity may be much more prevalent in studies relying on auditory cues for species detection (e.g., songbird or calling amphibian surveys). We used field survey data from a simulated calling anuran system of known occupancy state to investigate the biases induced by these errors in dynamic models of species occurrence. Despite the participation of expert observers in simplified field conditions, both false positive errors and site detection probability heterogeneity were extensive for most species in the survey. We found that even low levels of false positive errors, constituting as little as 1% of all detections, can cause severe overestimation of site occupancy, colonization, and local extinction probabilities. Further, unmodeled detection probability heterogeneity induced substantial underestimation of occupancy and overestimation of colonization and local extinction probabilities. Completely spurious relationships between species occurrence and explanatory variables were also found. Such misleading inferences would likely have deleterious implications for conservation and management programs. We contend that all forms of observation error, including false positive errors and heterogeneous detection probabilities, must be incorporated into the estimation framework to facilitate reliable inferences about occupancy and its associated vital rate parameters.

On the timing problem in optical PPM communications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gagliardi, R. M.

1971-01-01

Investigation of the effects of imperfect timing in a direct-detection (noncoherent) optical system using pulse-position-modulation bits. Special emphasis is placed on specification of timing accuracy, and an examination of system degradation when this accuracy is not attained. Bit error probabilities are shown as a function of timing errors, from which average error probabilities can be computed for specific synchronization methods. Of significant importance is shown to be the presence of a residual, or irreducible error probability, due entirely to the timing system, that cannot be overcome by the data channel.

On the streaming model for redshift-space distortions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuruvilla, Joseph; Porciani, Cristiano

2018-06-01

The streaming model describes the mapping between real and redshift space for 2-point clustering statistics. Its key element is the probability density function (PDF) of line-of-sight pairwise peculiar velocities. Following a kinetic-theory approach, we derive the fundamental equations of the streaming model for ordered and unordered pairs. In the first case, we recover the classic equation while we demonstrate that modifications are necessary for unordered pairs. We then discuss several statistical properties of the pairwise velocities for DM particles and haloes by using a suite of high-resolution N-body simulations. We test the often used Gaussian ansatz for the PDF of pairwise velocities and discuss its limitations. Finally, we introduce a mixture of Gaussians which is known in statistics as the generalised hyperbolic distribution and show that it provides an accurate fit to the PDF. Once inserted in the streaming equation, the fit yields an excellent description of redshift-space correlations at all scales that vastly outperforms the Gaussian and exponential approximations. Using a principal-component analysis, we reduce the complexity of our model for large redshift-space separations. Our results increase the robustness of studies of anisotropic galaxy clustering and are useful for extending them towards smaller scales in order to test theories of gravity and interacting dark-energy models.

When do correlations increase with firing rates in recurrent networks?

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

A central question in neuroscience is to understand how noisy firing patterns are used to transmit information. Because neural spiking is noisy, spiking patterns are often quantified via pairwise correlations, or the probability that two cells will spike coincidentally, above and beyond their baseline firing rate. One observation frequently made in experiments, is that correlations can increase systematically with firing rate. Theoretical studies have determined that stimulus-dependent correlations that increase with firing rate can have beneficial effects on information coding; however, we still have an incomplete understanding of what circuit mechanisms do, or do not, produce this correlation-firing rate relationship. Here, we studied the relationship between pairwise correlations and firing rates in recurrently coupled excitatory-inhibitory spiking networks with conductance-based synapses. We found that with stronger excitatory coupling, a positive relationship emerged between pairwise correlations and firing rates. To explain these findings, we used linear response theory to predict the full correlation matrix and to decompose correlations in terms of graph motifs. We then used this decomposition to explain why covariation of correlations with firing rate—a relationship previously explained in feedforward networks driven by correlated input—emerges in some recurrent networks but not in others. Furthermore, when correlations covary with firing rate, this relationship is reflected in low-rank structure in the correlation matrix. PMID:28448499

Population and forensic genetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA control region variation from six major provinces in the Korean population.

PubMed

Hong, Seung Beom; Kim, Ki Cheol; Kim, Wook

2015-07-01

We generated complete mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences from 704 unrelated individuals residing in six major provinces in Korea. In addition to our earlier survey of the distribution of mtDNA haplogroup variation, a total of 560 different haplotypes characterized by 271 polymorphic sites were identified, of which 473 haplotypes were unique. The gene diversity and random match probability were 0.9989 and 0.0025, respectively. According to the pairwise comparison of the 704 control region sequences, the mean number of pairwise differences between individuals was 13.47±6.06. Based on the result of mtDNA control region sequences, pairwise FST genetic distances revealed genetic homogeneity of the Korean provinces on a peninsular level, except in samples from Jeju Island. This result indicates there may be a need to formulate a local mtDNA database for Jeju Island, to avoid bias in forensic parameter estimates caused by genetic heterogeneity of the population. Thus, the present data may help not only in personal identification but also in determining maternal lineages to provide an expanded and reliable Korean mtDNA database. These data will be available on the EMPOP database via accession number EMP00661. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inverse MDS: Inferring Dissimilarity Structure from Multiple Item Arrangements

PubMed Central

Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Mur, Marieke

2012-01-01

The pairwise dissimilarities of a set of items can be intuitively visualized by a 2D arrangement of the items, in which the distances reflect the dissimilarities. Such an arrangement can be obtained by multidimensional scaling (MDS). We propose a method for the inverse process: inferring the pairwise dissimilarities from multiple 2D arrangements of items. Perceptual dissimilarities are classically measured using pairwise dissimilarity judgments. However, alternative methods including free sorting and 2D arrangements have previously been proposed. The present proposal is novel (a) in that the dissimilarity matrix is estimated by “inverse MDS” based on multiple arrangements of item subsets, and (b) in that the subsets are designed by an adaptive algorithm that aims to provide optimal evidence for the dissimilarity estimates. The subject arranges the items (represented as icons on a computer screen) by means of mouse drag-and-drop operations. The multi-arrangement method can be construed as a generalization of simpler methods: It reduces to pairwise dissimilarity judgments if each arrangement contains only two items, and to free sorting if the items are categorically arranged into discrete piles. Multi-arrangement combines the advantages of these methods. It is efficient (because the subject communicates many dissimilarity judgments with each mouse drag), psychologically attractive (because dissimilarities are judged in context), and can characterize continuous high-dimensional dissimilarity structures. We present two procedures for estimating the dissimilarity matrix: a simple weighted-aligned-average of the partial dissimilarity matrices and a computationally intensive algorithm, which estimates the dissimilarity matrix by iteratively minimizing the error of MDS-predictions of the subject’s arrangements. The Matlab code for interactive arrangement and dissimilarity estimation is available from the authors upon request. PMID:22848204

Sythesis of MCMC and Belief Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahn, Sungsoo; Chertkov, Michael; Shin, Jinwoo

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from exponentially slow mixing. In contrast, BP is a deterministic method, which is typically fast, empirically very successful, however in general lacking control of accuracy over loopy graphs. In this paper, we introduce MCMC algorithms correcting the approximation error of BP, i.e., we provide a way to compensate for BP errors via a consecutive BP-aware MCMC. Our framework is based on the Loop Calculus (LC) approach whichmore » allows to express the BP error as a sum of weighted generalized loops. Although the full series is computationally intractable, it is known that a truncated series, summing up all 2-regular loops, is computable in polynomial-time for planar pair-wise binary GMs and it also provides a highly accurate approximation empirically. Motivated by this, we first propose a polynomial-time approximation MCMC scheme for the truncated series of general (non-planar) pair-wise binary models. Our main idea here is to use the Worm algorithm, known to provide fast mixing in other (related) problems, and then design an appropriate rejection scheme to sample 2-regular loops. Furthermore, we also design an efficient rejection-free MCMC scheme for approximating the full series. The main novelty underlying our design is in utilizing the concept of cycle basis, which provides an efficient decomposition of the generalized loops. In essence, the proposed MCMC schemes run on transformed GM built upon the non-trivial BP solution, and our experiments show that this synthesis of BP and MCMC outperforms both direct MCMC and bare BP schemes.« less

Determining accurate measurements of the growth rate from the galaxy correlation function in simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Carlos; Blake, Chris; Poole, Gregory B.; Marin, Felipe

2013-04-01

We use high-resolution N-body simulations to develop a new, flexible empirical approach for measuring the growth rate from redshift-space distortions in the 2-point galaxy correlation function. We quantify the systematic error in measuring the growth rate in a 1 h-3 Gpc3 volume over a range of redshifts, from the dark matter particle distribution and a range of halo-mass catalogues with a number density comparable to the latest large-volume galaxy surveys such as the WiggleZ Dark Energy Survey and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. Our simulations allow us to span halo masses with bias factors ranging from unity (probed by emission-line galaxies) to more massive haloes hosting luminous red galaxies. We show that the measured growth rate is sensitive to the model adopted for the small-scale real-space correlation function, and in particular that the `standard' assumption of a power-law correlation function can result in a significant systematic error in the growth-rate determination. We introduce a new, empirical fitting function that produces results with a lower (5-10 per cent) amplitude of systematic error. We also introduce a new technique which permits the galaxy pairwise velocity distribution, the quantity which drives the non-linear growth of structure, to be measured as a non-parametric stepwise function. Our (model-independent) results agree well with an exponential pairwise velocity distribution, expected from theoretical considerations, and are consistent with direct measurements of halo velocity differences from the parent catalogues. In a companion paper, we present the application of our new methodology to the WiggleZ Survey data set.

Marker-free registration of forest terrestrial laser scanner data pairs with embedded confidence metrics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Aardt, Jan; Romanczyk, Paul; van Leeuwen, Martin

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has emerged as an effective tool for rapid comprehensive measurement of object structure. Registration of TLS data is an important prerequisite to overcome the limitations of occlusion. However, due to the high dissimilarity of point cloud data collected from disparate viewpoints in the forest environment, adequate marker-free registration approaches have not been developed. The majority of studies instead rely on the utilization of artificial tie points (e.g., reflective tooling balls) placed within a scene to aid in coordinate transformation. We present a technique for generating view-invariant feature descriptors that are intrinsic to the point cloud datamore » and, thus, enable blind marker-free registration in forest environments. To overcome the limitation of initial pose estimation, we employ a voting method to blindly determine the optimal pairwise transformation parameters, without an a priori estimate of the initial sensor pose. To provide embedded error metrics, we developed a set theory framework in which a circular transformation is traversed between disjoint tie point subsets. This provides an upper estimate of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) confidence associated with each pairwise transformation. Output RMSE errors are commensurate with the RMSE of input tie points locations. Thus, while the mean output RMSE=16.3cm, improved results could be achieved with a more precise laser scanning system. This study 1) quantifies the RMSE of the proposed marker-free registration approach, 2) assesses the validity of embedded confidence metrics using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, and 3) informs optimal sample spacing considerations for TLS data collection in New England forests. Furthermore, while the implications for rapid, accurate, and precise forest inventory are obvious, the conceptual framework outlined here could potentially be extended to built environments.« less

Marker-free registration of forest terrestrial laser scanner data pairs with embedded confidence metrics

DOE PAGES

Van Aardt, Jan; Romanczyk, Paul; van Leeuwen, Martin; ...

2016-04-04

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has emerged as an effective tool for rapid comprehensive measurement of object structure. Registration of TLS data is an important prerequisite to overcome the limitations of occlusion. However, due to the high dissimilarity of point cloud data collected from disparate viewpoints in the forest environment, adequate marker-free registration approaches have not been developed. The majority of studies instead rely on the utilization of artificial tie points (e.g., reflective tooling balls) placed within a scene to aid in coordinate transformation. We present a technique for generating view-invariant feature descriptors that are intrinsic to the point cloud datamore » and, thus, enable blind marker-free registration in forest environments. To overcome the limitation of initial pose estimation, we employ a voting method to blindly determine the optimal pairwise transformation parameters, without an a priori estimate of the initial sensor pose. To provide embedded error metrics, we developed a set theory framework in which a circular transformation is traversed between disjoint tie point subsets. This provides an upper estimate of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) confidence associated with each pairwise transformation. Output RMSE errors are commensurate with the RMSE of input tie points locations. Thus, while the mean output RMSE=16.3cm, improved results could be achieved with a more precise laser scanning system. This study 1) quantifies the RMSE of the proposed marker-free registration approach, 2) assesses the validity of embedded confidence metrics using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, and 3) informs optimal sample spacing considerations for TLS data collection in New England forests. Furthermore, while the implications for rapid, accurate, and precise forest inventory are obvious, the conceptual framework outlined here could potentially be extended to built environments.« less

Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

78 FR 28597 - State Median Income Estimates for a Four-Person Household: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-15

....gov/acs/www/ or contact the Census Bureau's Social, Economic, and Housing Statistics Division at (301...) Sampling Error, which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the... direction; and (2) Sampling Error, which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability...

Sensitivity of feedforward neural networks to weight errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevenson, Maryhelen; Widrow, Bernard; Winter, Rodney

1990-01-01

An analysis is made of the sensitivity of feedforward layered networks of Adaline elements (threshold logic units) to weight errors. An approximation is derived which expresses the probability of error for an output neuron of a large network (a network with many neurons per layer) as a function of the percentage change in the weights. As would be expected, the probability of error increases with the number of layers in the network and with the percentage change in the weights. The probability of error is essentially independent of the number of weights per neuron and of the number of neurons per layer, as long as these numbers are large (on the order of 100 or more).

Type I error probabilities based on design-stage strategies with applications to noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Rothmann, Mark

2005-01-01

When testing the equality of means from two different populations, a t-test or large sample normal test tend to be performed. For these tests, when the sample size or design for the second sample is dependent on the results of the first sample, the type I error probability is altered for each specific possibility in the null hypothesis. We will examine the impact on the type I error probabilities for two confidence interval procedures and procedures using test statistics when the design for the second sample or experiment is dependent on the results from the first sample or experiment (or series of experiments). Ways for controlling a desired maximum type I error probability or a desired type I error rate will be discussed. Results are applied to the setting of noninferiority comparisons in active controlled trials where the use of a placebo is unethical.

LDPC-coded MIMO optical communication over the atmospheric turbulence channel using Q-ary pulse-position modulation.

PubMed

Djordjevic, Ivan B

2007-08-06

We describe a coded power-efficient transmission scheme based on repetition MIMO principle suitable for communication over the atmospheric turbulence channel, and determine its channel capacity. The proposed scheme employs the Q-ary pulse-position modulation. We further study how to approach the channel capacity limits using low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes. Component LDPC codes are designed using the concept of pairwise-balanced designs. Contrary to the several recent publications, bit-error rates and channel capacities are reported assuming non-ideal photodetection. The atmospheric turbulence channel is modeled using the Gamma-Gamma distribution function due to Al-Habash et al. Excellent bit-error rate performance improvement, over uncoded case, is found.

Inverse sequential detection of parameter changes in developing time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1992-01-01

Progressive values of two probabilities are obtained for parameter estimates derived from an existing set of values and from the same set enlarged by one or more new values, respectively. One probability is that of erroneously preferring the second of these estimates for the existing data ('type 1 error'), while the second probability is that of erroneously accepting their estimates for the enlarged test ('type 2 error'). A more stable combined 'no change' probability which always falls between 0.5 and 0 is derived from the (logarithmic) width of the uncertainty region of an equivalent 'inverted' sequential probability ratio test (SPRT, Wald 1945) in which the error probabilities are calculated rather than prescribed. A parameter change is indicated when the compound probability undergoes a progressive decrease. The test is explicitly formulated and exemplified for Gaussian samples.

Poster error probability in the Mu-11 Sequential Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coyle, C. W.

1981-01-01

An expression is derived for the posterior error probability in the Mu-2 Sequential Ranging System. An algorithm is developed which closely bounds the exact answer and can be implemented in the machine software. A computer simulation is provided to illustrate the improved level of confidence in a ranging acquisition using this figure of merit as compared to that using only the prior probabilities. In a simulation of 20,000 acquisitions with an experimentally determined threshold setting, the algorithm detected 90% of the actual errors and made false indication of errors on 0.2% of the acquisitions.

Elastic K-means using posterior probability.

PubMed

Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

2017-01-01

The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model.

Comparison between Thermal Desorption Tubes and Stainless Steel Canisters Used for Measuring Volatile Organic Compounds in Petrochemical Factories

PubMed Central

Chang, Cheng-Ping; Lin, Tser-Cheng; Lin, Yu-Wen; Hua, Yi-Chun; Chu, Wei-Ming; Lin, Tzu-Yu; Lin, Yi-Wen; Wu, Jyun-De

2016-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare thermal desorption tubes and stainless steel canisters for measuring volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from petrochemical factories. Methods: Twelve petrochemical factories in the Mailiao Industrial Complex were recruited for conducting the measurements of VOCs. Thermal desorption tubes and 6-l specially prepared stainless steel canisters were used to simultaneously perform active sampling of environmental air samples. The sampling time of the environmental air samples was set up on 6h close to a full work shift of the workers. A total of 94 pairwise air samples were collected by using the thermal adsorption tubes and stainless steel canisters in these 12 factories in the petrochemical industrial complex. To maximize the number of comparative data points, all the measurements from all the factories in different sampling times were lumped together to perform a linear regression analysis for each selected VOC. Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between the pairwise measurements of these two sampling methods. A paired t-test was also performed to examine whether the difference in the concentrations of each selected VOC measured by the two methods was statistically significant. Results: The correlation coefficients of seven compounds, including acetone, n-hexane, benzene, toluene, 1,2-dichloroethane, 1,3-butadiene, and styrene were >0.80 indicating the two sampling methods for these VOCs’ measurements had high consistency. The paired t-tests for the measurements of n-hexane, benzene, m/p-xylene, o-xylene, 1,2-dichloroethane, and 1,3-butadiene showed statistically significant difference (P-value < 0.05). This indicated that the two sampling methods had various degrees of systematic errors. Looking at the results of six chemicals and these systematic errors probably resulted from the differences of the detection limits in the two sampling methods for these VOCs. Conclusions: The comparison between the concentrations of each of the 10 selected VOCs measured by the two sampling methods indicted that the thermal desorption tubes provided high accuracy and precision measurements for acetone, benzene, and 1,3-butadiene. The accuracy and precision of using the thermal desorption tubes for measuring the VOCs can be improved due to new developments in sorbent materials, multi-sorbent designs, and thermal desorption instrumentation. More applications of thermal desorption tubes for measuring occupational and environmental hazardous agents can be anticipated. PMID:26585828

Comparison between Thermal Desorption Tubes and Stainless Steel Canisters Used for Measuring Volatile Organic Compounds in Petrochemical Factories.

PubMed

Chang, Cheng-Ping; Lin, Tser-Cheng; Lin, Yu-Wen; Hua, Yi-Chun; Chu, Wei-Ming; Lin, Tzu-Yu; Lin, Yi-Wen; Wu, Jyun-De

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to compare thermal desorption tubes and stainless steel canisters for measuring volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from petrochemical factories. Twelve petrochemical factories in the Mailiao Industrial Complex were recruited for conducting the measurements of VOCs. Thermal desorption tubes and 6-l specially prepared stainless steel canisters were used to simultaneously perform active sampling of environmental air samples. The sampling time of the environmental air samples was set up on 6 h close to a full work shift of the workers. A total of 94 pairwise air samples were collected by using the thermal adsorption tubes and stainless steel canisters in these 12 factories in the petrochemical industrial complex. To maximize the number of comparative data points, all the measurements from all the factories in different sampling times were lumped together to perform a linear regression analysis for each selected VOC. Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient was used to examine the correlation between the pairwise measurements of these two sampling methods. A paired t-test was also performed to examine whether the difference in the concentrations of each selected VOC measured by the two methods was statistically significant. The correlation coefficients of seven compounds, including acetone, n-hexane, benzene, toluene, 1,2-dichloroethane, 1,3-butadiene, and styrene were >0.80 indicating the two sampling methods for these VOCs' measurements had high consistency. The paired t-tests for the measurements of n-hexane, benzene, m/p-xylene, o-xylene, 1,2-dichloroethane, and 1,3-butadiene showed statistically significant difference (P-value < 0.05). This indicated that the two sampling methods had various degrees of systematic errors. Looking at the results of six chemicals and these systematic errors probably resulted from the differences of the detection limits in the two sampling methods for these VOCs. The comparison between the concentrations of each of the 10 selected VOCs measured by the two sampling methods indicted that the thermal desorption tubes provided high accuracy and precision measurements for acetone, benzene, and 1,3-butadiene. The accuracy and precision of using the thermal desorption tubes for measuring the VOCs can be improved due to new developments in sorbent materials, multi-sorbent designs, and thermal desorption instrumentation. More applications of thermal desorption tubes for measuring occupational and environmental hazardous agents can be anticipated. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

A Quantum Theoretical Explanation for Probability Judgment Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busemeyer, Jerome R.; Pothos, Emmanuel M.; Franco, Riccardo; Trueblood, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

A quantum probability model is introduced and used to explain human probability judgment errors including the conjunction and disjunction fallacies, averaging effects, unpacking effects, and order effects on inference. On the one hand, quantum theory is similar to other categorization and memory models of cognition in that it relies on vector…

A concatenated coding scheme for error control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1985-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error contol in data communications was analyzed. The inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if either the inner code decoder fails to make a successful decoding or the outer code decoder detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error of the proposed scheme is derived. An efficient method for computing this probability is presented. Throughout efficiency of the proposed error control scheme incorporated with a selective repeat ARQ retransmission strategy is analyzed.

The effect of timing errors in optical digital systems.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gagliardi, R. M.

1972-01-01

The use of digital transmission with narrow light pulses appears attractive for data communications, but carries with it a stringent requirement on system bit timing. The effects of imperfect timing in direct-detection (noncoherent) optical binary systems are investigated using both pulse-position modulation and on-off keying for bit transmission. Particular emphasis is placed on specification of timing accuracy and an examination of system degradation when this accuracy is not attained. Bit error probabilities are shown as a function of timing errors from which average error probabilities can be computed for specific synchronization methods. Of significance is the presence of a residual or irreducible error probability in both systems, due entirely to the timing system, which cannot be overcome by the data channel.

Nematode Damage Functions: The Problems of Experimental and Sampling Error

PubMed Central

Ferris, H.

1984-01-01

The development and use of pest damage functions involves measurement and experimental errors associated with cultural, environmental, and distributional factors. Damage predictions are more valuable if considered with associated probability. Collapsing population densities into a geometric series of population classes allows a pseudo-replication removal of experimental and sampling error in damage function development. Recognition of the nature of sampling error for aggregated populations allows assessment of probability associated with the population estimate. The product of the probabilities incorporated in the damage function and in the population estimate provides a basis for risk analysis of the yield loss prediction and the ensuing management decision. PMID:19295865

More on the decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheung, K.-M.

1987-01-01

The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occurs. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub e (u) for the (255, 223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.

Acupuncture and related therapies used as add-on or alternative to prokinetics for functional dyspepsia: overview of systematic reviews and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ho, Robin S T; Chung, Vincent C H; Wong, Charlene H L; Wu, Justin C Y; Wong, Samuel Y S; Wu, Irene X Y

2017-09-04

Prokinetics for functional dyspepsia (FD) have relatively higher number needed to treat values. Acupuncture and related therapies could be used as add-on or alternative. An overview of systematic reviews (SRs) and network meta-analyses (NMA) were performed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of different acupuncture and related therapies. We conducted a comprehensive literature search for SRs of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in eight international and Chinese databases. Data from eligible RCTs were extracted for random effect pairwise meta-analyses. NMA was used to explore the most effective treatment among acupuncture and related therapies used alone or as add-on to prokinetics, compared to prokinetics alone. From five SRs, 22 RCTs assessing various acupuncture and related therapies were included. No serious adverse events were reported. Two pairwise meta-analyses showed manual acupuncture has marginally stronger effect in alleviating global FD symptoms, compared to domperidone or itopride. Results from NMA showed combination of manual acupuncture and clebopride has the highest probability in alleviating patient reported global FD symptom. Combination of manual acupuncture and clebopride has the highest probability of being the most effective treatment for FD symptoms. Patients who are contraindicated for prokinetics may use manual acupuncture or moxibustion as alternative. Future confirmatory comparative effectiveness trials should compare clebopride add-on manual acupuncture with domperidone add-on manual acupuncture and moxibustion.

Neural dynamics of reward probability coding: a Magnetoencephalographic study in humans

PubMed Central

Thomas, Julie; Vanni-Mercier, Giovanna; Dreher, Jean-Claude

2013-01-01

Prediction of future rewards and discrepancy between actual and expected outcomes (prediction error) are crucial signals for adaptive behavior. In humans, a number of fMRI studies demonstrated that reward probability modulates these two signals in a large brain network. Yet, the spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the neural coding of reward probability remains unknown. Here, using magnetoencephalography, we investigated the neural dynamics of prediction and reward prediction error computations while subjects learned to associate cues of slot machines with monetary rewards with different probabilities. We showed that event-related magnetic fields (ERFs) arising from the visual cortex coded the expected reward value 155 ms after the cue, demonstrating that reward value signals emerge early in the visual stream. Moreover, a prediction error was reflected in ERF peaking 300 ms after the rewarded outcome and showing decreasing amplitude with higher reward probability. This prediction error signal was generated in a network including the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex. These findings pinpoint the spatio-temporal characteristics underlying reward probability coding. Together, our results provide insights into the neural dynamics underlying the ability to learn probabilistic stimuli-reward contingencies. PMID:24302894

Benchmarking Inverse Statistical Approaches for Protein Structure and Design with Exactly Solvable Models.

PubMed

Jacquin, Hugo; Gilson, Amy; Shakhnovich, Eugene; Cocco, Simona; Monasson, Rémi

2016-05-01

Inverse statistical approaches to determine protein structure and function from Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSA) are emerging as powerful tools in computational biology. However the underlying assumptions of the relationship between the inferred effective Potts Hamiltonian and real protein structure and energetics remain untested so far. Here we use lattice protein model (LP) to benchmark those inverse statistical approaches. We build MSA of highly stable sequences in target LP structures, and infer the effective pairwise Potts Hamiltonians from those MSA. We find that inferred Potts Hamiltonians reproduce many important aspects of 'true' LP structures and energetics. Careful analysis reveals that effective pairwise couplings in inferred Potts Hamiltonians depend not only on the energetics of the native structure but also on competing folds; in particular, the coupling values reflect both positive design (stabilization of native conformation) and negative design (destabilization of competing folds). In addition to providing detailed structural information, the inferred Potts models used as protein Hamiltonian for design of new sequences are able to generate with high probability completely new sequences with the desired folds, which is not possible using independent-site models. Those are remarkable results as the effective LP Hamiltonians used to generate MSA are not simple pairwise models due to the competition between the folds. Our findings elucidate the reasons for the success of inverse approaches to the modelling of proteins from sequence data, and their limitations.

Bit Error Probability for Maximum Likelihood Decoding of Linear Block Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc P. C.; Rhee, Dojun

1996-01-01

In this paper, the bit error probability P(sub b) for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes is investigated. The contribution of each information bit to P(sub b) is considered. For randomly generated codes, it is shown that the conventional approximation at high SNR P(sub b) is approximately equal to (d(sub H)/N)P(sub s), where P(sub s) represents the block error probability, holds for systematic encoding only. Also systematic encoding provides the minimum P(sub b) when the inverse mapping corresponding to the generator matrix of the code is used to retrieve the information sequence. The bit error performances corresponding to other generator matrix forms are also evaluated. Although derived for codes with a generator matrix randomly generated, these results are shown to provide good approximations for codes used in practice. Finally, for decoding methods which require a generator matrix with a particular structure such as trellis decoding or algebraic-based soft decision decoding, equivalent schemes that reduce the bit error probability are discussed.

U.S. Maternally Linked Birth Records May Be Biased for Hispanics and Other Population Groups

PubMed Central

LEISS, JACK K.; GILES, DENISE; SULLIVAN, KRISTIN M.; MATHEWS, RAHEL; SENTELLE, GLENDA; TOMASHEK, KAY M.

2010-01-01

Purpose To advance understanding of linkage error in U.S. maternally linked datasets, and how the error may affect results of studies based on the linked data. Methods North Carolina birth and fetal death records for 1988-1997 were maternally linked (n=1,030,029). The maternal set probability, defined as the probability that all records assigned to the same maternal set do in fact represent events to the same woman, was used to assess differential maternal linkage error across race/ethnic groups. Results Maternal set probabilities were lower for records specifying Asian or Hispanic race/ethnicity, suggesting greater maternal linkage error. The lower probabilities for Hispanics were concentrated in women of Mexican origin who were not born in the United States. Conclusions Differential maternal linkage error may be a source of bias in studies using U.S. maternally linked datasets to make comparisons between Hispanics and other groups or among Hispanic subgroups. Methods to quantify and adjust for this potential bias are needed. PMID:20006273

On the error probability of general tree and trellis codes with applications to sequential decoding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johannesson, R.

1973-01-01

An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random binary tree codes is derived and shown to be independent of the length of the tree. An upper bound on the average error probability for maximum-likelihood decoding of the ensemble of random L-branch binary trellis codes of rate R = 1/n is derived which separates the effects of the tail length T and the memory length M of the code. It is shown that the bound is independent of the length L of the information sequence. This implication is investigated by computer simulations of sequential decoding utilizing the stack algorithm. These simulations confirm the implication and further suggest an empirical formula for the true undetected decoding error probability with sequential decoding.

Dissecting random and systematic differences between noisy composite data sets.

PubMed

Diederichs, Kay

2017-04-01

Composite data sets measured on different objects are usually affected by random errors, but may also be influenced by systematic (genuine) differences in the objects themselves, or the experimental conditions. If the individual measurements forming each data set are quantitative and approximately normally distributed, a correlation coefficient is often used to compare data sets. However, the relations between data sets are not obvious from the matrix of pairwise correlations since the numerical value of the correlation coefficient is lowered by both random and systematic differences between the data sets. This work presents a multidimensional scaling analysis of the pairwise correlation coefficients which places data sets into a unit sphere within low-dimensional space, at a position given by their CC* values [as defined by Karplus & Diederichs (2012), Science, 336, 1030-1033] in the radial direction and by their systematic differences in one or more angular directions. This dimensionality reduction can not only be used for classification purposes, but also to derive data-set relations on a continuous scale. Projecting the arrangement of data sets onto the subspace spanned by systematic differences (the surface of a unit sphere) allows, irrespective of the random-error levels, the identification of clusters of closely related data sets. The method gains power with increasing numbers of data sets. It is illustrated with an example from low signal-to-noise ratio image processing, and an application in macromolecular crystallography is shown, but the approach is completely general and thus should be widely applicable.

Statistical Mechanics of the US Supreme Court

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Edward D.; Broedersz, Chase P.; Bialek, William

2015-07-01

We build simple models for the distribution of voting patterns in a group, using the Supreme Court of the United States as an example. The maximum entropy model consistent with the observed pairwise correlations among justices' votes, an Ising spin glass, agrees quantitatively with the data. While all correlations (perhaps surprisingly) are positive, the effective pairwise interactions in the spin glass model have both signs, recovering the intuition that ideologically opposite justices negatively influence each another. Despite the competing interactions, a strong tendency toward unanimity emerges from the model, organizing the voting patterns in a relatively simple "energy landscape." Besides unanimity, other energy minima in this landscape, or maxima in probability, correspond to prototypical voting states, such as the ideological split or a tightly correlated, conservative core. The model correctly predicts the correlation of justices with the majority and gives us a measure of their influence on the majority decision. These results suggest that simple models, grounded in statistical physics, can capture essential features of collective decision making quantitatively, even in a complex political context.

Statistical mechanics of letters in words

PubMed Central

Stephens, Greg J.; Bialek, William

2013-01-01

We consider words as a network of interacting letters, and approximate the probability distribution of states taken on by this network. Despite the intuition that the rules of English spelling are highly combinatorial and arbitrary, we find that maximum entropy models consistent with pairwise correlations among letters provide a surprisingly good approximation to the full statistics of words, capturing ~92% of the multi-information in four-letter words and even “discovering” words that were not represented in the data. These maximum entropy models incorporate letter interactions through a set of pairwise potentials and thus define an energy landscape on the space of possible words. Guided by the large letter redundancy we seek a lower-dimensional encoding of the letter distribution and show that distinctions between local minima in the landscape account for ~68% of the four-letter entropy. We suggest that these states provide an effective vocabulary which is matched to the frequency of word use and much smaller than the full lexicon. PMID:20866490

Error Patterns in Ordering Fractions among At-Risk Fourth-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Amelia Schneider; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2015-01-01

The 3 purposes of this study were to: (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk 4th-grade students; (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors; and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability of…

Game-Theoretic strategies for systems of components using product-form utilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Nageswara S; Ma, Cheng-Yu; Hausken, K.

Many critical infrastructures are composed of multiple systems of components which are correlated so that disruptions to one may propagate to others. We consider such infrastructures with correlations characterized in two ways: (i) an aggregate failure correlation function specifies the conditional failure probability of the infrastructure given the failure of an individual system, and (ii) a pairwise correlation function between two systems specifies the failure probability of one system given the failure of the other. We formulate a game for ensuring the resilience of the infrastructure, wherein the utility functions of the provider and attacker are products of an infrastructuremore » survival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the numbers of system components attacked and reinforced. The survival probabilities of individual systems satisfy first-order differential conditions that lead to simple Nash Equilibrium conditions. We then derive sensitivity functions that highlight the dependence of infrastructure resilience on the cost terms, correlation functions, and individual system survival probabilities. We apply these results to simplified models of distributed cloud computing and energy grid infrastructures.« less

Validation of spatial variability in downscaling results from the VALUE perfect predictor experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widmann, Martin; Bedia, Joaquin; Gutiérrez, Jose Manuel; Maraun, Douglas; Huth, Radan; Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Hertig, Elke; Vrac, Mathieu; Wibig, Joanna; Pagé, Christian; Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro MM; Bosshard, Thomas; Casado, Maria Jesus; Ramos, Petra

2016-04-01

VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. Within VALUE a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods has been developed. In the first validation experiment the downscaling methods are validated in a setup with perfect predictors taken from the ERA-interim reanalysis for the period 1997 - 2008. This allows to investigate the isolated skill of downscaling methods without further error contributions from the large-scale predictors. One aspect of the validation is the representation of spatial variability. As part of the VALUE validation we have compared various properties of the spatial variability of downscaled daily temperature and precipitation with the corresponding properties in observations. We have used two test validation datasets, one European-wide set of 86 stations, and one higher-density network of 50 stations in Germany. Here we present results based on three approaches, namely the analysis of i.) correlation matrices, ii.) pairwise joint threshold exceedances, and iii.) regions of similar variability. We summarise the information contained in correlation matrices by calculating the dependence of the correlations on distance and deriving decorrelation lengths, as well as by determining the independent degrees of freedom. Probabilities for joint threshold exceedances and (where appropriate) non-exceedances are calculated for various user-relevant thresholds related for instance to extreme precipitation or frost and heat days. The dependence of these probabilities on distance is again characterised by calculating typical length scales that separate dependent from independent exceedances. Regionalisation is based on rotated Principal Component Analysis. The results indicate which downscaling methods are preferable if the dependency of variability at different locations is relevant for the user.

An ABC estimate of pedigree error rate: application in dog, sheep and cattle breeds.

PubMed

Leroy, G; Danchin-Burge, C; Palhiere, I; Baumung, R; Fritz, S; Mériaux, J C; Gautier, M

2012-06-01

On the basis of correlations between pairwise individual genealogical kinship coefficients and allele sharing distances computed from genotyping data, we propose an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach to assess pedigree file reliability through gene-dropping simulations. We explore the features of the method using simulated data sets and show precision increases with the number of markers. An application is further made with five dog breeds, four sheep breeds and one cattle breed raised in France and displaying various characteristics and population sizes, using microsatellite or SNP markers. Depending on the breeds, pedigree error estimations range between 1% and 9% in dog breeds, 1% and 10% in sheep breeds and 4% in cattle breeds. © 2011 The Authors, Animal Genetics © 2011 Stichting International Foundation for Animal Genetics.

FPGA implementation of high-performance QC-LDPC decoder for optical communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Ding; Djordjevic, Ivan B.

2015-01-01

Forward error correction is as one of the key technologies enabling the next-generation high-speed fiber optical communications. Quasi-cyclic (QC) low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes have been considered as one of the promising candidates due to their large coding gain performance and low implementation complexity. In this paper, we present our designed QC-LDPC code with girth 10 and 25% overhead based on pairwise balanced design. By FPGAbased emulation, we demonstrate that the 5-bit soft-decision LDPC decoder can achieve 11.8dB net coding gain with no error floor at BER of 10-15 avoiding using any outer code or post-processing method. We believe that the proposed single QC-LDPC code is a promising solution for 400Gb/s optical communication systems and beyond.

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Lightning Stroke Contacted the Surface Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William; Merceret, Francis J.

2010-01-01

A technique has been developed to calculate the probability that any nearby lightning stroke is within any radius of any point of interest. In practice, this provides the probability that a nearby lightning stroke was within a key distance of a facility, rather than the error ellipses centered on the stroke. This process takes the current bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to get the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius. This new facility-centric technique will be much more useful to the space launch customers and may supersede the lightning error ellipse approach discussed in [5], [6].

Entanglement-enhanced Neyman-Pearson target detection using quantum illumination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) provides entanglement-based target detection---in an entanglement-breaking environment---whose performance is significantly better than that of optimum classical-illumination target detection. QI's performance advantage was established in a Bayesian setting with the target presumed equally likely to be absent or present and error probability employed as the performance metric. Radar theory, however, eschews that Bayesian approach, preferring the Neyman-Pearson performance criterion to avoid the difficulties of accurately assigning prior probabilities to target absence and presence and appropriate costs to false-alarm and miss errors. We have recently reported an architecture---based on sum-frequency generation (SFG) and feedforward (FF) processing---for minimum error-probability QI target detection with arbitrary prior probabilities for target absence and presence. In this paper, we use our results for FF-SFG reception to determine the receiver operating characteristic---detection probability versus false-alarm probability---for optimum QI target detection under the Neyman-Pearson criterion.

Elastic K-means using posterior probability

PubMed Central

Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

2017-01-01

The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model. PMID:29240756

The random coding bound is tight for the average code.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallager, R. G.

1973-01-01

The random coding bound of information theory provides a well-known upper bound to the probability of decoding error for the best code of a given rate and block length. The bound is constructed by upperbounding the average error probability over an ensemble of codes. The bound is known to give the correct exponential dependence of error probability on block length for transmission rates above the critical rate, but it gives an incorrect exponential dependence at rates below a second lower critical rate. Here we derive an asymptotic expression for the average error probability over the ensemble of codes used in the random coding bound. The result shows that the weakness of the random coding bound at rates below the second critical rate is due not to upperbounding the ensemble average, but rather to the fact that the best codes are much better than the average at low rates.

75 FR 26780 - State Median Income Estimate for a Four-Person Family: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-12

... Household Economic Statistics Division at (301) 763-3243. Under the advice of the Census Bureau, HHS..., which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the sample. For...) Sampling Error, which consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the...

A concatenated coding scheme for error control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kasami, T.; Fujiwara, T.; Lin, S.

1986-01-01

In this paper, a concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is presented and analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection; however, the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if either the inner code decoder fails to make a successful decoding or the outer code decoder detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error (or decoding error) of the proposed scheme is derived. An efficient method for computing this probability is presented. Throughput efficiency of the proposed error control scheme incorporated with a selective-repeat ARQ retransmission strategy is also analyzed. Three specific examples are presented. One of the examples is proposed for error control in the NASA Telecommand System.

REGRES: A FORTRAN-77 program to calculate nonparametric and ``structural'' parametric solutions to bivariate regression equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rock, N. M. S.; Duffy, T. R.

REGRES allows a range of regression equations to be calculated for paired sets of data values in which both variables are subject to error (i.e. neither is the "independent" variable). Nonparametric regressions, based on medians of all possible pairwise slopes and intercepts, are treated in detail. Estimated slopes and intercepts are output, along with confidence limits, Spearman and Kendall rank correlation coefficients. Outliers can be rejected with user-determined stringency. Parametric regressions can be calculated for any value of λ (the ratio of the variances of the random errors for y and x)—including: (1) major axis ( λ = 1); (2) reduced major axis ( λ = variance of y/variance of x); (3) Y on Xλ = infinity; or (4) X on Y ( λ = 0) solutions. Pearson linear correlation coefficients also are output. REGRES provides an alternative to conventional isochron assessment techniques where bivariate normal errors cannot be assumed, or weighting methods are inappropriate.

Performance metrics for the assessment of satellite data products: an ocean color case study

PubMed Central

Seegers, Bridget N.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Schaeffer, Blake A.; Loftin, Keith A.; Werdell, P. Jeremy

2018-01-01

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r2), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multi-metric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities. PMID:29609296

Performance analysis of the word synchronization properties of the outer code in a TDRSS decoder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A self-synchronizing coding scheme for NASA's TDRSS satellite system is a concatenation of a (2,1,7) inner convolutional code with a (255,223) Reed-Solomon outer code. Both symbol and word synchronization are achieved without requiring that any additional symbols be transmitted. An important parameter which determines the performance of the word sync procedure is the ratio of the decoding failure probability to the undetected error probability. Ideally, the former should be as small as possible compared to the latter when the error correcting capability of the code is exceeded. A computer simulation of a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code as carried out. Results for decoding failure probability and for undetected error probability are tabulated and compared.

Differential Item Functioning Detection Across Two Methods of Defining Group Comparisons

PubMed Central

Sari, Halil Ibrahim

2014-01-01

This study compares two methods of defining groups for the detection of differential item functioning (DIF): (a) pairwise comparisons and (b) composite group comparisons. We aim to emphasize and empirically support the notion that the choice of pairwise versus composite group definitions in DIF is a reflection of how one defines fairness in DIF studies. In this study, a simulation was conducted based on data from a 60-item ACT Mathematics test (ACT; Hanson & Béguin). The unsigned area measure method (Raju) was used as the DIF detection method. An application to operational data was also completed in the study, as well as a comparison of observed Type I error rates and false discovery rates across the two methods of defining groups. Results indicate that the amount of flagged DIF or interpretations about DIF in all conditions were not the same across the two methods, and there may be some benefits to using composite group approaches. The results are discussed in connection to differing definitions of fairness. Recommendations for practice are made. PMID:29795837

Analysis of the impact of error detection on computer performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, K. C.; Lee, Y. H.

1983-01-01

Conventionally, reliability analyses either assume that a fault/error is detected immediately following its occurrence, or neglect damages caused by latent errors. Though unrealistic, this assumption was imposed in order to avoid the difficulty of determining the respective probabilities that a fault induces an error and the error is then detected in a random amount of time after its occurrence. As a remedy for this problem a model is proposed to analyze the impact of error detection on computer performance under moderate assumptions. Error latency, the time interval between occurrence and the moment of detection, is used to measure the effectiveness of a detection mechanism. This model is used to: (1) predict the probability of producing an unreliable result, and (2) estimate the loss of computation due to fault and/or error.

Triangulation Error Analysis for the Barium Ion Cloud Experiment. M.S. Thesis - North Carolina State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, S. A. T.

1973-01-01

The triangulation method developed specifically for the Barium Ion Cloud Project is discussed. Expression for the four displacement errors, the three slope errors, and the curvature error in the triangulation solution due to a probable error in the lines-of-sight from the observation stations to points on the cloud are derived. The triangulation method is then used to determine the effect of the following on these different errors in the solution: the number and location of the stations, the observation duration, east-west cloud drift, the number of input data points, and the addition of extra cameras to one of the stations. The pointing displacement errors, and the pointing slope errors are compared. The displacement errors in the solution due to a probable error in the position of a moving station plus the weighting factors for the data from the moving station are also determined.

Information-geometric measures estimate neural interactions during oscillatory brain states

PubMed Central

Nie, Yimin; Fellous, Jean-Marc; Tatsuno, Masami

2014-01-01

The characterization of functional network structures among multiple neurons is essential to understanding neural information processing. Information geometry (IG), a theory developed for investigating a space of probability distributions has recently been applied to spike-train analysis and has provided robust estimations of neural interactions. Although neural firing in the equilibrium state is often assumed in these studies, in reality, neural activity is non-stationary. The brain exhibits various oscillations depending on cognitive demands or when an animal is asleep. Therefore, the investigation of the IG measures during oscillatory network states is important for testing how the IG method can be applied to real neural data. Using model networks of binary neurons or more realistic spiking neurons, we studied how the single- and pairwise-IG measures were influenced by oscillatory neural activity. Two general oscillatory mechanisms, externally driven oscillations and internally induced oscillations, were considered. In both mechanisms, we found that the single-IG measure was linearly related to the magnitude of the external input, and that the pairwise-IG measure was linearly related to the sum of connection strengths between two neurons. We also observed that the pairwise-IG measure was not dependent on the oscillation frequency. These results are consistent with the previous findings that were obtained under the equilibrium conditions. Therefore, we demonstrate that the IG method provides useful insights into neural interactions under the oscillatory condition that can often be observed in the real brain. PMID:24605089

Information-geometric measures estimate neural interactions during oscillatory brain states.

PubMed

Nie, Yimin; Fellous, Jean-Marc; Tatsuno, Masami

2014-01-01

The characterization of functional network structures among multiple neurons is essential to understanding neural information processing. Information geometry (IG), a theory developed for investigating a space of probability distributions has recently been applied to spike-train analysis and has provided robust estimations of neural interactions. Although neural firing in the equilibrium state is often assumed in these studies, in reality, neural activity is non-stationary. The brain exhibits various oscillations depending on cognitive demands or when an animal is asleep. Therefore, the investigation of the IG measures during oscillatory network states is important for testing how the IG method can be applied to real neural data. Using model networks of binary neurons or more realistic spiking neurons, we studied how the single- and pairwise-IG measures were influenced by oscillatory neural activity. Two general oscillatory mechanisms, externally driven oscillations and internally induced oscillations, were considered. In both mechanisms, we found that the single-IG measure was linearly related to the magnitude of the external input, and that the pairwise-IG measure was linearly related to the sum of connection strengths between two neurons. We also observed that the pairwise-IG measure was not dependent on the oscillation frequency. These results are consistent with the previous findings that were obtained under the equilibrium conditions. Therefore, we demonstrate that the IG method provides useful insights into neural interactions under the oscillatory condition that can often be observed in the real brain.

The construct-behavior gap in behavioral decision research: A challenge beyond replicability.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Robinson, Maria M

2017-10-01

Behavioral decision research compares theoretical constructs like preferences to behavior such as observed choices. Three fairly common links from constructs to behavior are (1) to tally, across participants and decision problems, the number of choices consistent with one predicted pattern of pairwise preferences; (2) to compare what most people choose in each decision problem against a predicted preference pattern; or (3) to enumerate the decision problems in which two experimental conditions generate a 1-sided significant difference in choice frequency 'consistent' with the theory. Although simple, these theoretical links are heuristics. They are subject to well-known reasoning fallacies, most notably the fallacy of sweeping generalization and the fallacy of composition. No amount of replication can alleviate these fallacies. On the contrary, reiterating logically inconsistent theoretical reasoning over and again across studies obfuscates science. As a case in point, we consider pairwise choices among simple lotteries and the hypotheses of overweighting or underweighting of small probabilities, as well as the description-experience gap. We discuss ways to avoid reasoning fallacies in bridging the conceptual gap between hypothetical constructs, such as, for example, "overweighting" to observable pairwise choice data. Although replication is invaluable, successful replication of hard-to-interpret results is not. Behavioral decision research stands to gain much theoretical and empirical clarity by spelling out precise and formally explicit theories of how hypothetical constructs translate into observable behavior. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Performance of cellular frequency-hopped spread-spectrum radio networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gluck, Jeffrey W.; Geraniotis, Evaggelos

1989-10-01

Multiple access interference is characterized for cellular mobile networks, in which users are assumed to be Poisson-distributed in the plane and employ frequency-hopped spread-spectrum signaling with transmitter-oriented assignment of frequency-hopping patterns. Exact expressions for the bit error probabilities are derived for binary coherently demodulated systems without coding. Approximations for the packet error probability are derived for coherent and noncoherent systems and these approximations are applied when forward-error-control coding is employed. In all cases, the effects of varying interference power are accurately taken into account according to some propagation law. Numerical results are given in terms of bit error probability for the exact case and throughput for the approximate analyses. Comparisons are made with previously derived bounds and it is shown that these tend to be very pessimistic.

Comparison of rate one-half, equivalent constraint length 24, binary convolutional codes for use with sequential decoding on the deep-space channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

Virtually all previously-suggested rate 1/2 binary convolutional codes with KE = 24 are compared. Their distance properties are given; and their performance, both in computation and in error probability, with sequential decoding on the deep-space channel is determined by simulation. Recommendations are made both for the choice of a specific KE = 24 code as well as for codes to be included in future coding standards for the deep-space channel. A new result given in this report is a method for determining the statistical significance of error probability data when the error probability is so small that it is not feasible to perform enough decoding simulations to obtain more than a very small number of decoding errors.

An Energy-Efficient Spectrum-Aware Reinforcement Learning-Based Clustering Algorithm for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Mustapha, Ibrahim; Ali, Borhanuddin Mohd; Rasid, Mohd Fadlee A.; Sali, Aduwati; Mohamad, Hafizal

2015-01-01

It is well-known that clustering partitions network into logical groups of nodes in order to achieve energy efficiency and to enhance dynamic channel access in cognitive radio through cooperative sensing. While the topic of energy efficiency has been well investigated in conventional wireless sensor networks, the latter has not been extensively explored. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning-based spectrum-aware clustering algorithm that allows a member node to learn the energy and cooperative sensing costs for neighboring clusters to achieve an optimal solution. Each member node selects an optimal cluster that satisfies pairwise constraints, minimizes network energy consumption and enhances channel sensing performance through an exploration technique. We first model the network energy consumption and then determine the optimal number of clusters for the network. The problem of selecting an optimal cluster is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in the algorithm and the obtained simulation results show convergence, learning and adaptability of the algorithm to dynamic environment towards achieving an optimal solution. Performance comparisons of our algorithm with the Groupwise Spectrum Aware (GWSA)-based algorithm in terms of Sum of Square Error (SSE), complexity, network energy consumption and probability of detection indicate improved performance from the proposed approach. The results further reveal that an energy savings of 9% and a significant Primary User (PU) detection improvement can be achieved with the proposed approach. PMID:26287191

An Energy-Efficient Spectrum-Aware Reinforcement Learning-Based Clustering Algorithm for Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Mustapha, Ibrahim; Mohd Ali, Borhanuddin; Rasid, Mohd Fadlee A; Sali, Aduwati; Mohamad, Hafizal

2015-08-13

It is well-known that clustering partitions network into logical groups of nodes in order to achieve energy efficiency and to enhance dynamic channel access in cognitive radio through cooperative sensing. While the topic of energy efficiency has been well investigated in conventional wireless sensor networks, the latter has not been extensively explored. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning-based spectrum-aware clustering algorithm that allows a member node to learn the energy and cooperative sensing costs for neighboring clusters to achieve an optimal solution. Each member node selects an optimal cluster that satisfies pairwise constraints, minimizes network energy consumption and enhances channel sensing performance through an exploration technique. We first model the network energy consumption and then determine the optimal number of clusters for the network. The problem of selecting an optimal cluster is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in the algorithm and the obtained simulation results show convergence, learning and adaptability of the algorithm to dynamic environment towards achieving an optimal solution. Performance comparisons of our algorithm with the Groupwise Spectrum Aware (GWSA)-based algorithm in terms of Sum of Square Error (SSE), complexity, network energy consumption and probability of detection indicate improved performance from the proposed approach. The results further reveal that an energy savings of 9% and a significant Primary User (PU) detection improvement can be achieved with the proposed approach.

A multisite validation of whole slide imaging for primary diagnosis using standardized data collection and analysis.

PubMed

Wack, Katy; Drogowski, Laura; Treloar, Murray; Evans, Andrew; Ho, Jonhan; Parwani, Anil; Montalto, Michael C

2016-01-01

Text-based reporting and manual arbitration for whole slide imaging (WSI) validation studies are labor intensive and do not allow for consistent, scalable, and repeatable data collection or analysis. The objective of this study was to establish a method of data capture and analysis using standardized codified checklists and predetermined synoptic discordance tables and to use these methods in a pilot multisite validation study. Fifteen case report form checklists were generated from the College of American Pathology cancer protocols. Prior to data collection, all hypothetical pairwise comparisons were generated, and a level of harm was determined for each possible discordance. Four sites with four pathologists each generated 264 independent reads of 33 cases. Preestablished discordance tables were applied to determine site by site and pooled accuracy, intrareader/intramodality, and interreader intramodality error rates. Over 10,000 hypothetical pairwise comparisons were evaluated and assigned harm in discordance tables. The average difference in error rates between WSI and glass, as compared to ground truth, was 0.75% with a lower bound of 3.23% (95% confidence interval). Major discordances occurred on challenging cases, regardless of modality. The average inter-reader agreement across sites for glass was 76.5% (weighted kappa of 0.68) and for digital it was 79.1% (weighted kappa of 0.72). These results demonstrate the feasibility and utility of employing standardized synoptic checklists and predetermined discordance tables to gather consistent, comprehensive diagnostic data for WSI validation studies. This method of data capture and analysis can be applied in large-scale multisite WSI validations.

Bayesian network models for error detection in radiotherapy plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalet, Alan M.; Gennari, John H.; Ford, Eric C.; Phillips, Mark H.

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study is to design and develop a probabilistic network for detecting errors in radiotherapy plans for use at the time of initial plan verification. Our group has initiated a multi-pronged approach to reduce these errors. We report on our development of Bayesian models of radiotherapy plans. Bayesian networks consist of joint probability distributions that define the probability of one event, given some set of other known information. Using the networks, we find the probability of obtaining certain radiotherapy parameters, given a set of initial clinical information. A low probability in a propagated network then corresponds to potential errors to be flagged for investigation. To build our networks we first interviewed medical physicists and other domain experts to identify the relevant radiotherapy concepts and their associated interdependencies and to construct a network topology. Next, to populate the network’s conditional probability tables, we used the Hugin Expert software to learn parameter distributions from a subset of de-identified data derived from a radiation oncology based clinical information database system. These data represent 4990 unique prescription cases over a 5 year period. Under test case scenarios with approximately 1.5% introduced error rates, network performance produced areas under the ROC curve of 0.88, 0.98, and 0.89 for the lung, brain and female breast cancer error detection networks, respectively. Comparison of the brain network to human experts performance (AUC of 0.90 ± 0.01) shows the Bayes network model performs better than domain experts under the same test conditions. Our results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of comprehensive probabilistic models as part of decision support systems for improved detection of errors in initial radiotherapy plan verification procedures.

Uncertainty quantification for complex systems with very high dimensional response using Grassmann manifold variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giovanis, D. G.; Shields, M. D.

2018-07-01

This paper addresses uncertainty quantification (UQ) for problems where scalar (or low-dimensional vector) response quantities are insufficient and, instead, full-field (very high-dimensional) responses are of interest. To do so, an adaptive stochastic simulation-based methodology is introduced that refines the probability space based on Grassmann manifold variations. The proposed method has a multi-element character discretizing the probability space into simplex elements using a Delaunay triangulation. For every simplex, the high-dimensional solutions corresponding to its vertices (sample points) are projected onto the Grassmann manifold. The pairwise distances between these points are calculated using appropriately defined metrics and the elements with large total distance are sub-sampled and refined. As a result, regions of the probability space that produce significant changes in the full-field solution are accurately resolved. An added benefit is that an approximation of the solution within each element can be obtained by interpolation on the Grassmann manifold. The method is applied to study the probability of shear band formation in a bulk metallic glass using the shear transformation zone theory.

Fixation of strategies driven by switching probabilities in evolutionary games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zimin; Zhang, Jianlei; Zhang, Chunyan; Chen, Zengqiang

2016-12-01

We study the evolutionary dynamics of strategies in finite populations which are homogeneous and well mixed by means of the pairwise comparison process, the core of which is the proposed switching probability. Previous studies about this subject are usually based on the known payoff comparison of the related players, which is an ideal assumption. In real social systems, acquiring the accurate payoffs of partners at each round of interaction may be not easy. So we bypass the need of explicit knowledge of payoffs, and encode the payoffs into the willingness of any individual shift from her current strategy to the competing one, and the switching probabilities are wholly independent of payoffs. Along this way, the strategy updating can be performed when game models are fixed and payoffs are unclear, expected to extend ideal assumptions to be more realistic one. We explore the impact of the switching probability on the fixation probability and derive a simple formula which determines the fixation probability. Moreover we find that cooperation dominates defection if the probability of cooperation replacing defection is always larger than the probability of defection replacing cooperation in finite populations. Last, we investigate the influences of model parameters on the fixation of strategies in the framework of three concrete game models: prisoner's dilemma, snowdrift game and stag-hunt game, which effectively portray the characteristics of cooperative dilemmas in real social systems.

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis; Gold, Dara

2013-01-01

We propose a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for analysis of commonly available predictions associated with spacecraft conjunctions. Such predictions generally consist of a relative state and relative state error covariance at the time of closest approach, under the assumption that prediction errors are Gaussian. We show that under these circumstances, the likelihood ratio of the Wald test reduces to an especially simple form, involving the current best estimate of collision probability, and a similar estimate of collision probability that is based on prior assumptions about the likelihood of collision.

Feature-based pairwise retinal image registration by radial distortion correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sangyeol; Abràmoff, Michael D.; Reinhardt, Joseph M.

2007-03-01

Fundus camera imaging is widely used to document disorders such as diabetic retinopathy and macular degeneration. Multiple retinal images can be combined together through a procedure known as mosaicing to form an image with a larger field of view. Mosaicing typically requires multiple pairwise registrations of partially overlapped images. We describe a new method for pairwise retinal image registration. The proposed method is unique in that the radial distortion due to image acquisition is corrected prior to the geometric transformation. Vessel lines are detected using the Hessian operator and are used as input features to the registration. Since the overlapping region is typically small in a retinal image pair, only a few correspondences are available, thus limiting the applicable model to an afine transform at best. To recover the distortion due to curved-surface of retina and lens optics, a combined approach of an afine model with a radial distortion correction is proposed. The parameters of the image acquisition and radial distortion models are estimated during an optimization step that uses Powell's method driven by the vessel line distance. Experimental results using 20 pairs of green channel images acquired from three subjects with a fundus camera confirmed that the afine model with distortion correction could register retinal image pairs to within 1.88+/-0.35 pixels accuracy (mean +/- standard deviation) assessed by vessel line error, which is 17% better than the afine-only approach. Because the proposed method needs only two correspondences, it can be applied to obtain good registration accuracy even in the case of small overlap between retinal image pairs.

Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: The empirical cumulative distribution function of absolute errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pernot, Pascal; Savin, Andreas

2018-06-01

Benchmarking studies in computational chemistry use reference datasets to assess the accuracy of a method through error statistics. The commonly used error statistics, such as the mean signed and mean unsigned errors, do not inform end-users on the expected amplitude of prediction errors attached to these methods. We show that, the distributions of model errors being neither normal nor zero-centered, these error statistics cannot be used to infer prediction error probabilities. To overcome this limitation, we advocate for the use of more informative statistics, based on the empirical cumulative distribution function of unsigned errors, namely, (1) the probability for a new calculation to have an absolute error below a chosen threshold and (2) the maximal amplitude of errors one can expect with a chosen high confidence level. Those statistics are also shown to be well suited for benchmarking and ranking studies. Moreover, the standard error on all benchmarking statistics depends on the size of the reference dataset. Systematic publication of these standard errors would be very helpful to assess the statistical reliability of benchmarking conclusions.

Modulation/demodulation techniques for satellite communications. Part 1: Background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omura, J. K.; Simon, M. K.

1981-01-01

Basic characteristics of digital data transmission systems described include the physical communication links, the notion of bandwidth, FCC regulations, and performance measurements such as bit rates, bit error probabilities, throughputs, and delays. The error probability performance and spectral characteristics of various modulation/demodulation techniques commonly used or proposed for use in radio and satellite communication links are summarized. Forward error correction with block or convolutional codes is also discussed along with the important coding parameter, channel cutoff rate.

Rapid Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing Using Forward Laser Light Scatter Technology

PubMed Central

Clinton, Lani K.; Hewitt, Carolyn; Koyamatsu, Terri; Sun, Yilun; Jamison, Ginger; Perkins, Rosalie; Tang, Li; Pounds, Stanley; Bankowski, Matthew J.

2016-01-01

The delayed reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility testing remains a limiting factor in clinical decision-making in the treatment of bacterial infection. This study evaluates the use of forward laser light scatter (FLLS) to measure bacterial growth for the early determination of antimicrobial susceptibility. Three isolates each (two clinical isolates and one reference strain) of Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were tested in triplicate using two commercial antimicrobial testing systems, the Vitek2 and the MicroScan MIC panel, to challenge the BacterioScan FLLS. The BacterioScan FLLS showed a high degree of categorical concordance with the commercial methods. Pairwise comparison with each commercial system serving as a reference standard showed 88.9% agreement with MicroScan (two minor errors) and 72.2% agreement with Vitek (five minor errors). FLLS using the BacterioScan system shows promise as a novel method for the rapid and accurate determination of antimicrobial susceptibility. PMID:27558176

Bayesian probability analysis: a prospective demonstration of its clinical utility in diagnosing coronary disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Detrano, R.; Yiannikas, J.; Salcedo, E.E.

One hundred fifty-four patients referred for coronary arteriography were prospectively studied with stress electrocardiography, stress thallium scintigraphy, cine fluoroscopy (for coronary calcifications), and coronary angiography. Pretest probabilities of coronary disease were determined based on age, sex, and type of chest pain. These and pooled literature values for the conditional probabilities of test results based on disease state were used in Bayes theorem to calculate posttest probabilities of disease. The results of the three noninvasive tests were compared for statistical independence, a necessary condition for their simultaneous use in Bayes theorem. The test results were found to demonstrate pairwise independence inmore » patients with and those without disease. Some dependencies that were observed between the test results and the clinical variables of age and sex were not sufficient to invalidate application of the theorem. Sixty-eight of the study patients had at least one major coronary artery obstruction of greater than 50%. When these patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability subgroups according to their pretest probabilities, noninvasive test results analyzed by Bayesian probability analysis appropriately advanced 17 of them by at least one probability subgroup while only seven were moved backward. Of the 76 patients without disease, 34 were appropriately moved into a lower probability subgroup while 10 were incorrectly moved up. We conclude that posttest probabilities calculated from Bayes theorem more accurately classified patients with and without disease than did pretest probabilities, thus demonstrating the utility of the theorem in this application.« less

The calculation of average error probability in a digital fibre optical communication system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugemalira, R. A. M.

1980-03-01

This paper deals with the problem of determining the average error probability in a digital fibre optical communication system, in the presence of message dependent inhomogeneous non-stationary shot noise, additive Gaussian noise and intersymbol interference. A zero-forcing equalization receiver filter is considered. Three techniques for error rate evaluation are compared. The Chernoff bound and the Gram-Charlier series expansion methods are compared to the characteristic function technique. The latter predicts a higher receiver sensitivity

Probability shapes perceptual precision: A study in orientation estimation.

PubMed

Jabar, Syaheed B; Anderson, Britt

2015-12-01

Probability is known to affect perceptual estimations, but an understanding of mechanisms is lacking. Moving beyond binary classification tasks, we had naive participants report the orientation of briefly viewed gratings where we systematically manipulated contingent probability. Participants rapidly developed faster and more precise estimations for high-probability tilts. The shapes of their error distributions, as indexed by a kurtosis measure, also showed a distortion from Gaussian. This kurtosis metric was robust, capturing probability effects that were graded, contextual, and varying as a function of stimulus orientation. Our data can be understood as a probability-induced reduction in the variability or "shape" of estimation errors, as would be expected if probability affects the perceptual representations. As probability manipulations are an implicit component of many endogenous cuing paradigms, changes at the perceptual level could account for changes in performance that might have traditionally been ascribed to "attention." (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Lotka-Volterra pairwise modeling fails to capture diverse pairwise microbial interactions

PubMed Central

Momeni, Babak; Xie, Li; Shou, Wenying

2017-01-01

Pairwise models are commonly used to describe many-species communities. In these models, an individual receives additive fitness effects from pairwise interactions with each species in the community ('additivity assumption'). All pairwise interactions are typically represented by a single equation where parameters reflect signs and strengths of fitness effects ('universality assumption'). Here, we show that a single equation fails to qualitatively capture diverse pairwise microbial interactions. We build mechanistic reference models for two microbial species engaging in commonly-found chemical-mediated interactions, and attempt to derive pairwise models. Different equations are appropriate depending on whether a mediator is consumable or reusable, whether an interaction is mediated by one or more mediators, and sometimes even on quantitative details of the community (e.g. relative fitness of the two species, initial conditions). Our results, combined with potential violation of the additivity assumption in many-species communities, suggest that pairwise modeling will often fail to predict microbial dynamics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.25051.001 PMID:28350295

Changes in flexibility upon binding: Application of the self-consistent pair contact probability method to protein-protein interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canino, Lawrence S.; Shen, Tongye; McCammon, J. Andrew

2002-12-01

We extend the self-consistent pair contact probability method to the evaluation of the partition function for a protein complex at thermodynamic equilibrium. Specifically, we adapt the method for multichain models and introduce a parametrization for amino acid-specific pairwise interactions. This method is similar to the Gaussian network model but allows for the adjusting of the strengths of native state contacts. The method is first validated on a high resolution x-ray crystal structure of bovine Pancreatic Phospholipase A2 by comparing calculated B-factors with reported values. We then examine binding-induced changes in flexibility in protein-protein complexes, comparing computed results with those obtained from x-ray crystal structures and molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, we focus on the mouse acetylcholinesterase:fasciculin II and the human α-thrombin:thrombomodulin complexes.

Historical demography of common carp estimated from individuals collected from various parts of the world using the pairwise sequentially markovian coalescent approach.

PubMed

Yuan, Zihao; Huang, Wei; Liu, Shikai; Xu, Peng; Dunham, Rex; Liu, Zhanjiang

2018-04-01

The inference of historical demography of a species is helpful for understanding species' differentiation and its population dynamics. However, such inference has been previously difficult due to the lack of proper analytical methods and availability of genetic data. A recently developed method called Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) offers the capability for estimation of the trajectories of historical populations over considerable time periods using genomic sequences. In this study, we applied this approach to infer the historical demography of the common carp using samples collected from Europe, Asia and the Americas. Comparison between Asian and European common carp populations showed that the last glacial period starting 100 ka BP likely caused a significant decline in population size of the wild common carp in Europe, while it did not have much of an impact on its counterparts in Asia. This was probably caused by differences in glacial activities in East Asia and Europe, and suggesting a separation of the European and Asian clades before the last glacial maximum. The North American clade which is an invasive population shared a similar demographic history as those from Europe, consistent with the idea that the North American common carp probably had European ancestral origins. Our analysis represents the first reconstruction of the historical population demography of the common carp, which is important to elucidate the separation of European and Asian common carp clades during the Quaternary glaciation, as well as the dispersal of common carp across the world.

Effects of preparation time and trial type probability on performance of anti- and pro-saccades.

PubMed

Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

2016-02-01

Cognitive control optimizes responses to relevant task conditions by balancing bottom-up stimulus processing with top-down goal pursuit. It can be investigated using the ocular motor system by contrasting basic prosaccades (look toward a stimulus) with complex antisaccades (look away from a stimulus). Furthermore, the amount of time allotted between trials, the need to switch task sets, and the time allowed to prepare for an upcoming saccade all impact performance. In this study the relative probabilities of anti- and pro-saccades were manipulated across five blocks of interleaved trials, while the inter-trial interval and trial type cue duration were varied across subjects. Results indicated that inter-trial interval had no significant effect on error rates or reaction times (RTs), while a shorter trial type cue led to more antisaccade errors and faster overall RTs. Responses following a shorter cue duration also showed a stronger effect of trial type probability, with more antisaccade errors in blocks with a low antisaccade probability and slower RTs for each saccade task when its trial type was unlikely. A longer cue duration yielded fewer errors and slower RTs, with a larger switch cost for errors compared to a short cue duration. Findings demonstrated that when the trial type cue duration was shorter, visual motor responsiveness was faster and subjects relied upon the implicit trial probability context to improve performance. When the cue duration was longer, increased fixation-related activity may have delayed saccade motor preparation and slowed responses, guiding subjects to respond in a controlled manner regardless of trial type probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of rare events in quantum error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravyi, Sergey; Vargo, Alexander

2013-12-01

We consider the problem of calculating the logical error probability for a stabilizer quantum code subject to random Pauli errors. To access the regime of large code distances where logical errors are extremely unlikely we adopt the splitting method widely used in Monte Carlo simulations of rare events and Bennett's acceptance ratio method for estimating the free energy difference between two canonical ensembles. To illustrate the power of these methods in the context of error correction, we calculate the logical error probability PL for the two-dimensional surface code on a square lattice with a pair of holes for all code distances d≤20 and all error rates p below the fault-tolerance threshold. Our numerical results confirm the expected exponential decay PL˜exp[-α(p)d] and provide a simple fitting formula for the decay rate α(p). Both noiseless and noisy syndrome readout circuits are considered.

Analytic barrage attack model. Final report, January 1986-January 1989

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

St Ledger, J.W.; Naegeli, R.E.; Dowden, N.A.

An analytic model is developed for a nuclear barrage attack, assuming weapons with no aiming error and a cookie-cutter damage function. The model is then extended with approximations for the effects of aiming error and distance damage sigma. The final result is a fast running model which calculates probability of damage for a barrage attack. The probability of damage is accurate to within seven percent or better, for weapon reliabilities of 50 to 100 percent, distance damage sigmas of 0.5 or less, and zero to very large circular error probabilities. FORTRAN 77 coding is included in the report for themore » analytic model and for a numerical model used to check the analytic results.« less

Unexpected Relationships and Inbreeding in HapMap Phase III Populations

PubMed Central

Stevens, Eric L.; Baugher, Joseph D.; Shirley, Matthew D.; Frelin, Laurence P.; Pevsner, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Correct annotation of the genetic relationships between samples is essential for population genomic studies, which could be biased by errors or omissions. To this end, we used identity-by-state (IBS) and identity-by-descent (IBD) methods to assess genetic relatedness of individuals within HapMap phase III data. We analyzed data from 1,397 individuals across 11 ethnic populations. Our results support previous studies (Pemberton et al., 2010; Kyriazopoulou-Panagiotopoulou et al., 2011) assessing unknown relatedness present within this population. Additionally, we present evidence for 1,657 novel pairwise relationships across 9 populations. Surprisingly, significant Cotterman's coefficients of relatedness K1 (IBD1) values were detected between pairs of known parents. Furthermore, significant K2 (IBD2) values were detected in 32 previously annotated parent-child relationships. Consistent with a hypothesis of inbreeding, regions of homozygosity (ROH) were identified in the offspring of related parents, of which a subset overlapped those reported in previous studies (Gibson et al. 2010; Johnson et al. 2011). In total, we inferred 28 inbred individuals with ROH that overlapped areas of relatedness between the parents and/or IBD2 sharing at a different genomic locus between a child and a parent. Finally, 8 previously annotated parent-child relationships had unexpected K0 (IBD0) values (resulting from a chromosomal abnormality or genotype error), and 10 previously annotated second-degree relationships along with 38 other novel pairwise relationships had unexpected IBD2 (indicating two separate paths of recent ancestry). These newly described types of relatedness may impact the outcome of previous studies and should inform the design of future studies relying on the HapMap Phase III resource. PMID:23185369

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE PAGES

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

2018-01-01

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Utilizing Adjoint-Based Error Estimates for Surrogate Models to Accurately Predict Probabilities of Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Troy; Wildey, Timothy

In thist study, we develop a procedure to utilize error estimates for samples of a surrogate model to compute robust upper and lower bounds on estimates of probabilities of events. We show that these error estimates can also be used in an adaptive algorithm to simultaneously reduce the computational cost and increase the accuracy in estimating probabilities of events using computationally expensive high-fidelity models. Specifically, we introduce the notion of reliability of a sample of a surrogate model, and we prove that utilizing the surrogate model for the reliable samples and the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples gives preciselymore » the same estimate of the probability of the output event as would be obtained by evaluation of the original model for each sample. The adaptive algorithm uses the additional evaluations of the high-fidelity model for the unreliable samples to locally improve the surrogate model near the limit state, which significantly reduces the number of high-fidelity model evaluations as the limit state is resolved. Numerical results based on a recently developed adjoint-based approach for estimating the error in samples of a surrogate are provided to demonstrate (1) the robustness of the bounds on the probability of an event, and (2) that the adaptive enhancement algorithm provides a more accurate estimate of the probability of the QoI event than standard response surface approximation methods at a lower computational cost.« less

Relation between minimum-error discrimination and optimum unambiguous discrimination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qiu Daowen; SQIG-Instituto de Telecomunicacoes, Departamento de Matematica, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa, Avenida Rovisco Pais PT-1049-001, Lisbon; Li Lvjun

2010-09-15

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between the minimum-error probability Q{sub E} of ambiguous discrimination and the optimal inconclusive probability Q{sub U} of unambiguous discrimination. It is known that for discriminating two states, the inequality Q{sub U{>=}}2Q{sub E} has been proved in the literature. The main technical results are as follows: (1) We show that, for discriminating more than two states, Q{sub U{>=}}2Q{sub E} may not hold again, but the infimum of Q{sub U}/Q{sub E} is 1, and there is no supremum of Q{sub U}/Q{sub E}, which implies that the failure probabilities of the two schemes for discriminating somemore » states may be narrowly or widely gapped. (2) We derive two concrete formulas of the minimum-error probability Q{sub E} and the optimal inconclusive probability Q{sub U}, respectively, for ambiguous discrimination and unambiguous discrimination among arbitrary m simultaneously diagonalizable mixed quantum states with given prior probabilities. In addition, we show that Q{sub E} and Q{sub U} satisfy the relationship that Q{sub U{>=}}(m/m-1)Q{sub E}.« less

On the sensitivity of TG-119 and IROC credentialing to TPS commissioning errors.

PubMed

McVicker, Drew; Yin, Fang-Fang; Adamson, Justus D

2016-01-08

We investigate the sensitivity of IMRT commissioning using the TG-119 C-shape phantom and credentialing with the IROC head and neck phantom to treatment planning system commissioning errors. We introduced errors into the various aspects of the commissioning process for a 6X photon energy modeled using the analytical anisotropic algorithm within a commercial treatment planning system. Errors were implemented into the various components of the dose calculation algorithm including primary photons, secondary photons, electron contamination, and MLC parameters. For each error we evaluated the probability that it could be committed unknowingly during the dose algorithm commissioning stage, and the probability of it being identified during the verification stage. The clinical impact of each commissioning error was evaluated using representative IMRT plans including low and intermediate risk prostate, head and neck, mesothelioma, and scalp; the sensitivity of the TG-119 and IROC phantoms was evaluated by comparing dosimetric changes to the dose planes where film measurements occur and change in point doses where dosimeter measurements occur. No commissioning errors were found to have both a low probability of detection and high clinical severity. When errors do occur, the IROC credentialing and TG 119 commissioning criteria are generally effective at detecting them; however, for the IROC phantom, OAR point-dose measurements are the most sensitive despite being currently excluded from IROC analysis. Point-dose measurements with an absolute dose constraint were the most effective at detecting errors, while film analysis using a gamma comparison and the IROC film distance to agreement criteria were less effective at detecting the specific commissioning errors implemented here.

Quantization of high dimensional Gaussian vector using permutation modulation with application to information reconciliation in continuous variable QKD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daneshgaran, Fred; Mondin, Marina; Olia, Khashayar

This paper is focused on the problem of Information Reconciliation (IR) for continuous variable Quantum Key Distribution (QKD). The main problem is quantization and assignment of labels to the samples of the Gaussian variables observed at Alice and Bob. Trouble is that most of the samples, assuming that the Gaussian variable is zero mean which is de-facto the case, tend to have small magnitudes and are easily disturbed by noise. Transmission over longer and longer distances increases the losses corresponding to a lower effective Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) exasperating the problem. Quantization over higher dimensions is advantageous since it allows for fractional bit per sample accuracy which may be needed at very low SNR conditions whereby the achievable secret key rate is significantly less than one bit per sample. In this paper, we propose to use Permutation Modulation (PM) for quantization of Gaussian vectors potentially containing thousands of samples. PM is applied to the magnitudes of the Gaussian samples and we explore the dependence of the sign error probability on the magnitude of the samples. At very low SNR, we may transmit the entire label of the PM code from Bob to Alice in Reverse Reconciliation (RR) over public channel. The side information extracted from this label can then be used by Alice to characterize the sign error probability of her individual samples. Forward Error Correction (FEC) coding can be used by Bob on each subset of samples with similar sign error probability to aid Alice in error correction. This can be done for different subsets of samples with similar sign error probabilities leading to an Unequal Error Protection (UEP) coding paradigm.

Publisher Correction: Polymorphic design of DNA origami structures through mechanical control of modular components.

PubMed

Lee, Chanseok; Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Do-Nyun

2018-02-07

The originally published version of this Article contained an error in Figure 5. In panel f, the right y-axis 'Strain energy (kbT)' was labelled 'Probability' and the left y-axis 'Probability' was labelled 'Strain energy (kbT)'. This error has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

A contemporary approach to the problem of determining physical parameters according to the results of measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elyasberg, P. Y.

1979-01-01

The shortcomings of the classical approach are set forth, and the newer methods resulting from these shortcomings are explained. The problem was approached with the assumption that the probabilities of error were known, as well as without knowledge of the distribution of the probabilities of error. The advantages of the newer approach are discussed.

An Upper Bound on High Speed Satellite Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, PC †, have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum PC. If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but potentially useful Pc upper bound.

The decline and fall of Type II error rates

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Mark Durst

2005-01-01

For general linear models with normally distributed random errors, the probability of a Type II error decreases exponentially as a function of sample size. This potentially rapid decline reemphasizes the importance of performing power calculations.

Metrics for Business Process Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendling, Jan

Up until now, there has been little research on why people introduce errors in real-world business process models. In a more general context, Simon [404] points to the limitations of cognitive capabilities and concludes that humans act rationally only to a certain extent. Concerning modeling errors, this argument would imply that human modelers lose track of the interrelations of large and complex models due to their limited cognitive capabilities and introduce errors that they would not insert in a small model. A recent study by Mendling et al. [275] explores in how far certain complexity metrics of business process models have the potential to serve as error determinants. The authors conclude that complexity indeed appears to have an impact on error probability. Before we can test such a hypothesis in a more general setting, we have to establish an understanding of how we can define determinants that drive error probability and how we can measure them.

Testing Pairwise Association between Spatially Autocorrelated Variables: A New Approach Using Surrogate Lattice Data

PubMed Central

Deblauwe, Vincent; Kennel, Pol; Couteron, Pierre

2012-01-01

Background Independence between observations is a standard prerequisite of traditional statistical tests of association. This condition is, however, violated when autocorrelation is present within the data. In the case of variables that are regularly sampled in space (i.e. lattice data or images), such as those provided by remote-sensing or geographical databases, this problem is particularly acute. Because analytic derivation of the null probability distribution of the test statistic (e.g. Pearson's r) is not always possible when autocorrelation is present, we propose instead the use of a Monte Carlo simulation with surrogate data. Methodology/Principal Findings The null hypothesis that two observed mapped variables are the result of independent pattern generating processes is tested here by generating sets of random image data while preserving the autocorrelation function of the original images. Surrogates are generated by matching the dual-tree complex wavelet spectra (and hence the autocorrelation functions) of white noise images with the spectra of the original images. The generated images can then be used to build the probability distribution function of any statistic of association under the null hypothesis. We demonstrate the validity of a statistical test of association based on these surrogates with both actual and synthetic data and compare it with a corrected parametric test and three existing methods that generate surrogates (randomization, random rotations and shifts, and iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform). Type I error control was excellent, even with strong and long-range autocorrelation, which is not the case for alternative methods. Conclusions/Significance The wavelet-based surrogates are particularly appropriate in cases where autocorrelation appears at all scales or is direction-dependent (anisotropy). We explore the potential of the method for association tests involving a lattice of binary data and discuss its potential for validation of species distribution models. An implementation of the method in Java for the generation of wavelet-based surrogates is available online as supporting material. PMID:23144961

Multimodal Image Registration through Simultaneous Segmentation.

PubMed

Aganj, Iman; Fischl, Bruce

2017-11-01

Multimodal image registration facilitates the combination of complementary information from images acquired with different modalities. Most existing methods require computation of the joint histogram of the images, while some perform joint segmentation and registration in alternate iterations. In this work, we introduce a new non-information-theoretical method for pairwise multimodal image registration, in which the error of segmentation - using both images - is considered as the registration cost function. We empirically evaluate our method via rigid registration of multi-contrast brain magnetic resonance images, and demonstrate an often higher registration accuracy in the results produced by the proposed technique, compared to those by several existing methods.

Quantum state discrimination bounds for finite sample size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Audenaert, Koenraad M. R.; Mosonyi, Milan; Mathematical Institute, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Egry Jozsef u 1., Budapest 1111

2012-12-15

In the problem of quantum state discrimination, one has to determine by measurements the state of a quantum system, based on the a priori side information that the true state is one of the two given and completely known states, {rho} or {sigma}. In general, it is not possible to decide the identity of the true state with certainty, and the optimal measurement strategy depends on whether the two possible errors (mistaking {rho} for {sigma}, or the other way around) are treated as of equal importance or not. Results on the quantum Chernoff and Hoeffding bounds and the quantum Stein'smore » lemma show that, if several copies of the system are available then the optimal error probabilities decay exponentially in the number of copies, and the decay rate is given by a certain statistical distance between {rho} and {sigma} (the Chernoff distance, the Hoeffding distances, and the relative entropy, respectively). While these results provide a complete solution to the asymptotic problem, they are not completely satisfying from a practical point of view. Indeed, in realistic scenarios one has access only to finitely many copies of a system, and therefore it is desirable to have bounds on the error probabilities for finite sample size. In this paper we provide finite-size bounds on the so-called Stein errors, the Chernoff errors, the Hoeffding errors, and the mixed error probabilities related to the Chernoff and the Hoeffding errors.« less

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

Anisotropic interaction rules in circular motions of pigeon flocks: An empirical study based on sparse Bayesian learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Duxin; Xu, Bowen; Zhu, Tao; Zhou, Tao; Zhang, Hai-Tao

2017-08-01

Coordination shall be deemed to the result of interindividual interaction among natural gregarious animal groups. However, revealing the underlying interaction rules and decision-making strategies governing highly coordinated motion in bird flocks is still a long-standing challenge. Based on analysis of high spatial-temporal resolution GPS data of three pigeon flocks, we extract the hidden interaction principle by using a newly emerging machine learning method, namely the sparse Bayesian learning. It is observed that the interaction probability has an inflection point at pairwise distance of 3-4 m closer than the average maximum interindividual distance, after which it decays strictly with rising pairwise metric distances. Significantly, the density of spatial neighbor distribution is strongly anisotropic, with an evident lack of interactions along individual velocity. Thus, it is found that in small-sized bird flocks, individuals reciprocally cooperate with a variational number of neighbors in metric space and tend to interact with closer time-varying neighbors, rather than interacting with a fixed number of topological ones. Finally, extensive numerical investigation is conducted to verify both the revealed interaction and decision-making principle during circular flights of pigeon flocks.

Quantum-assisted learning of graphical models with arbitrary pairwise connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Realpe-Gómez, John; Benedetti, Marcello; Biswas, Rupak; Perdomo-Ortiz, Alejandro

Mainstream machine learning techniques rely heavily on sampling from generally intractable probability distributions. There is increasing interest in the potential advantages of using quantum computing technologies as sampling engines to speedup these tasks. However, some pressing challenges in state-of-the-art quantum annealers have to be overcome before we can assess their actual performance. The sparse connectivity, resulting from the local interaction between quantum bits in physical hardware implementations, is considered the most severe limitation to the quality of constructing powerful machine learning models. Here we show how to surpass this `curse of limited connectivity' bottleneck and illustrate our findings by training probabilistic generative models with arbitrary pairwise connectivity on a real dataset of handwritten digits and two synthetic datasets in experiments with up to 940 quantum bits. Our model can be trained in quantum hardware without full knowledge of the effective parameters specifying the corresponding Boltzmann-like distribution. Therefore, the need to infer the effective temperature at each iteration is avoided, speeding up learning, and the effect of noise in the control parameters is mitigated, improving accuracy. This work was supported in part by NASA, AFRL, ODNI, and IARPA.

An Effective Big Data Supervised Imbalanced Classification Approach for Ortholog Detection in Related Yeast Species

PubMed Central

Galpert, Deborah; del Río, Sara; Herrera, Francisco; Ancede-Gallardo, Evys; Antunes, Agostinho; Agüero-Chapin, Guillermin

2015-01-01

Orthology detection requires more effective scaling algorithms. In this paper, a set of gene pair features based on similarity measures (alignment scores, sequence length, gene membership to conserved regions, and physicochemical profiles) are combined in a supervised pairwise ortholog detection approach to improve effectiveness considering low ortholog ratios in relation to the possible pairwise comparison between two genomes. In this scenario, big data supervised classifiers managing imbalance between ortholog and nonortholog pair classes allow for an effective scaling solution built from two genomes and extended to other genome pairs. The supervised approach was compared with RBH, RSD, and OMA algorithms by using the following yeast genome pairs: Saccharomyces cerevisiae-Kluyveromyces lactis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae-Candida glabrata, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae-Schizosaccharomyces pombe as benchmark datasets. Because of the large amount of imbalanced data, the building and testing of the supervised model were only possible by using big data supervised classifiers managing imbalance. Evaluation metrics taking low ortholog ratios into account were applied. From the effectiveness perspective, MapReduce Random Oversampling combined with Spark SVM outperformed RBH, RSD, and OMA, probably because of the consideration of gene pair features beyond alignment similarities combined with the advances in big data supervised classification. PMID:26605337

An Effective Big Data Supervised Imbalanced Classification Approach for Ortholog Detection in Related Yeast Species.

PubMed

Galpert, Deborah; Del Río, Sara; Herrera, Francisco; Ancede-Gallardo, Evys; Antunes, Agostinho; Agüero-Chapin, Guillermin

2015-01-01

Orthology detection requires more effective scaling algorithms. In this paper, a set of gene pair features based on similarity measures (alignment scores, sequence length, gene membership to conserved regions, and physicochemical profiles) are combined in a supervised pairwise ortholog detection approach to improve effectiveness considering low ortholog ratios in relation to the possible pairwise comparison between two genomes. In this scenario, big data supervised classifiers managing imbalance between ortholog and nonortholog pair classes allow for an effective scaling solution built from two genomes and extended to other genome pairs. The supervised approach was compared with RBH, RSD, and OMA algorithms by using the following yeast genome pairs: Saccharomyces cerevisiae-Kluyveromyces lactis, Saccharomyces cerevisiae-Candida glabrata, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae-Schizosaccharomyces pombe as benchmark datasets. Because of the large amount of imbalanced data, the building and testing of the supervised model were only possible by using big data supervised classifiers managing imbalance. Evaluation metrics taking low ortholog ratios into account were applied. From the effectiveness perspective, MapReduce Random Oversampling combined with Spark SVM outperformed RBH, RSD, and OMA, probably because of the consideration of gene pair features beyond alignment similarities combined with the advances in big data supervised classification.

Event-chain Monte Carlo algorithms for three- and many-particle interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harland, J.; Michel, M.; Kampmann, T. A.; Kierfeld, J.

2017-02-01

We generalize the rejection-free event-chain Monte Carlo algorithm from many-particle systems with pairwise interactions to systems with arbitrary three- or many-particle interactions. We introduce generalized lifting probabilities between particles and obtain a general set of equations for lifting probabilities, the solution of which guarantees maximal global balance. We validate the resulting three-particle event-chain Monte Carlo algorithms on three different systems by comparison with conventional local Monte Carlo simulations: i) a test system of three particles with a three-particle interaction that depends on the enclosed triangle area; ii) a hard-needle system in two dimensions, where needle interactions constitute three-particle interactions of the needle end points; iii) a semiflexible polymer chain with a bending energy, which constitutes a three-particle interaction of neighboring chain beads. The examples demonstrate that the generalization to many-particle interactions broadens the applicability of event-chain algorithms considerably.

Statistical mechanics model for the emergence of consensus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffaelli, Giacomo; Marsili, Matteo

2005-07-01

The statistical properties of pairwise majority voting over S alternatives are analyzed in an infinite random population. We first compute the probability that the majority is transitive (i.e., that if it prefers A to B to C , then it prefers A to C ) and then study the case of an interacting population. This is described by a constrained multicomponent random field Ising model whose ferromagnetic phase describes the emergence of a strong transitive majority. We derive the phase diagram, which is characterized by a tricritical point and show that, contrary to intuition, it may be more likely for an interacting population to reach consensus on a number S of alternatives when S increases. This effect is due to the constraint imposed by transitivity on voting behavior. Indeed if agents are allowed to express nontransitive votes, the agents’ interaction may decrease considerably the probability of a transitive majority.

Fundamental Bounds for Sequence Reconstruction from Nanopore Sequencers.

PubMed

Magner, Abram; Duda, Jarosław; Szpankowski, Wojciech; Grama, Ananth

2016-06-01

Nanopore sequencers are emerging as promising new platforms for high-throughput sequencing. As with other technologies, sequencer errors pose a major challenge for their effective use. In this paper, we present a novel information theoretic analysis of the impact of insertion-deletion (indel) errors in nanopore sequencers. In particular, we consider the following problems: (i) for given indel error characteristics and rate, what is the probability of accurate reconstruction as a function of sequence length; (ii) using replicated extrusion (the process of passing a DNA strand through the nanopore), what is the number of replicas needed to accurately reconstruct the true sequence with high probability? Our results provide a number of important insights: (i) the probability of accurate reconstruction of a sequence from a single sample in the presence of indel errors tends quickly (i.e., exponentially) to zero as the length of the sequence increases; and (ii) replicated extrusion is an effective technique for accurate reconstruction. We show that for typical distributions of indel errors, the required number of replicas is a slow function (polylogarithmic) of sequence length - implying that through replicated extrusion, we can sequence large reads using nanopore sequencers. Moreover, we show that in certain cases, the required number of replicas can be related to information-theoretic parameters of the indel error distributions.

Sensitivity to prediction error in reach adaptation

PubMed Central

Haith, Adrian M.; Harran, Michelle D.; Shadmehr, Reza

2012-01-01

It has been proposed that the brain predicts the sensory consequences of a movement and compares it to the actual sensory feedback. When the two differ, an error signal is formed, driving adaptation. How does an error in one trial alter performance in the subsequent trial? Here we show that the sensitivity to error is not constant but declines as a function of error magnitude. That is, one learns relatively less from large errors compared with small errors. We performed an experiment in which humans made reaching movements and randomly experienced an error in both their visual and proprioceptive feedback. Proprioceptive errors were created with force fields, and visual errors were formed by perturbing the cursor trajectory to create a visual error that was smaller, the same size, or larger than the proprioceptive error. We measured single-trial adaptation and calculated sensitivity to error, i.e., the ratio of the trial-to-trial change in motor commands to error size. We found that for both sensory modalities sensitivity decreased with increasing error size. A reanalysis of a number of previously published psychophysical results also exhibited this feature. Finally, we asked how the brain might encode sensitivity to error. We reanalyzed previously published probabilities of cerebellar complex spikes (CSs) and found that this probability declined with increasing error size. From this we posit that a CS may be representative of the sensitivity to error, and not error itself, a hypothesis that may explain conflicting reports about CSs and their relationship to error. PMID:22773782

Asymmetric Memory Circuit Would Resist Soft Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G.; Perlman, Marvin

1990-01-01

Some nonlinear error-correcting codes more efficient in presence of asymmetry. Combination of circuit-design and coding concepts expected to make integrated-circuit random-access memories more resistant to "soft" errors (temporary bit errors, also called "single-event upsets" due to ionizing radiation). Integrated circuit of new type made deliberately more susceptible to one kind of bit error than to other, and associated error-correcting code adapted to exploit this asymmetry in error probabilities.

On the Probability of Error and Stochastic Resonance in Discrete Memoryless Channels

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Information - Driven Doppler Shift Estimation and Compensation Methods for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks ”, which is to analyze and develop... underwater wireless sensor networks . We formulated an analytic relationship that relates the average probability of error to the systems parameters, the...thesis, we studied the performance of Discrete Memoryless Channels (DMC), arising in the context of cooperative underwater wireless sensor networks

Probability of misclassifying biological elements in surface waters.

PubMed

Loga, Małgorzata; Wierzchołowska-Dziedzic, Anna

2017-11-24

Measurement uncertainties are inherent to assessment of biological indices of water bodies. The effect of these uncertainties on the probability of misclassification of ecological status is the subject of this paper. Four Monte-Carlo (M-C) models were applied to simulate the occurrence of random errors in the measurements of metrics corresponding to four biological elements of surface waters: macrophytes, phytoplankton, phytobenthos, and benthic macroinvertebrates. Long series of error-prone measurement values of these metrics, generated by M-C models, were used to identify cases in which values of any of the four biological indices lay outside of the "true" water body class, i.e., outside the class assigned from the actual physical measurements. Fraction of such cases in the M-C generated series was used to estimate the probability of misclassification. The method is particularly useful for estimating the probability of misclassification of the ecological status of surface water bodies in the case of short sequences of measurements of biological indices. The results of the Monte-Carlo simulations show a relatively high sensitivity of this probability to measurement errors of the river macrophyte index (MIR) and high robustness to measurement errors of the benthic macroinvertebrate index (MMI). The proposed method of using Monte-Carlo models to estimate the probability of misclassification has significant potential for assessing the uncertainty of water body status reported to the EC by the EU member countries according to WFD. The method can be readily applied also in risk assessment of water management decisions before adopting the status dependent corrective actions.

Learning a constrained conditional random field for enhanced segmentation of fallen trees in ALS point clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polewski, Przemyslaw; Yao, Wei; Heurich, Marco; Krzystek, Peter; Stilla, Uwe

2018-06-01

In this study, we present a method for improving the quality of automatic single fallen tree stem segmentation in ALS data by applying a specialized constrained conditional random field (CRF). The entire processing pipeline is composed of two steps. First, short stem segments of equal length are detected and a subset of them is selected for further processing, while in the second step the chosen segments are merged to form entire trees. The first step is accomplished using the specialized CRF defined on the space of segment labelings, capable of finding segment candidates which are easier to merge subsequently. To achieve this, the CRF considers not only the features of every candidate individually, but incorporates pairwise spatial interactions between adjacent segments into the model. In particular, pairwise interactions include a collinearity/angular deviation probability which is learned from training data as well as the ratio of spatial overlap, whereas unary potentials encode a learned probabilistic model of the laser point distribution around each segment. Each of these components enters the CRF energy with its own balance factor. To process previously unseen data, we first calculate the subset of segments for merging on a grid of balance factors by minimizing the CRF energy. Then, we perform the merging and rank the balance configurations according to the quality of their resulting merged trees, obtained from a learned tree appearance model. The final result is derived from the top-ranked configuration. We tested our approach on 5 plots from the Bavarian Forest National Park using reference data acquired in a field inventory. Compared to our previous segment selection method without pairwise interactions, an increase in detection correctness and completeness of up to 7 and 9 percentage points, respectively, was observed.

Exponential series approaches for nonparametric graphical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janofsky, Eric

Markov Random Fields (MRFs) or undirected graphical models are parsimonious representations of joint probability distributions. This thesis studies high-dimensional, continuous-valued pairwise Markov Random Fields. We are particularly interested in approximating pairwise densities whose logarithm belongs to a Sobolev space. For this problem we propose the method of exponential series which approximates the log density by a finite-dimensional exponential family with the number of sufficient statistics increasing with the sample size. We consider two approaches to estimating these models. The first is regularized maximum likelihood. This involves optimizing the sum of the log-likelihood of the data and a sparsity-inducing regularizer. We then propose a variational approximation to the likelihood based on tree-reweighted, nonparametric message passing. This approximation allows for upper bounds on risk estimates, leverages parallelization and is scalable to densities on hundreds of nodes. We show how the regularized variational MLE may be estimated using a proximal gradient algorithm. We then consider estimation using regularized score matching. This approach uses an alternative scoring rule to the log-likelihood, which obviates the need to compute the normalizing constant of the distribution. For general continuous-valued exponential families, we provide parameter and edge consistency results. As a special case we detail a new approach to sparse precision matrix estimation which has statistical performance competitive with the graphical lasso and computational performance competitive with the state-of-the-art glasso algorithm. We then describe results for model selection in the nonparametric pairwise model using exponential series. The regularized score matching problem is shown to be a convex program; we provide scalable algorithms based on consensus alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) and coordinate-wise descent. We use simulations to compare our method to others in the literature as well as the aforementioned TRW estimator.

Highly viscous antibody solutions are a consequence of network formation caused by domain-domain electrostatic complementarities: insights from coarse-grained simulations.

PubMed

Buck, Patrick M; Chaudhri, Anuj; Kumar, Sandeep; Singh, Satish K

2015-01-05

Therapeutic monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates that form highly viscous solutions at concentrations above 100 mg/mL can lead to challenges in bioprocessing, formulation development, and subcutaneous drug delivery. Earlier studies of mAbs with concentration-dependent high viscosity have indicated that mAbs with negatively charged Fv regions have a dipole-like quality that increases the likelihood of reversible self-association. This suggests that weak electrostatic intermolecular interactions can form transient antibody networks that participate in resistance to solution deformation under shear stress. Here this hypothesis is explored by parametrizing a coarse-grained (CG) model of an antibody using the domain charges from four different mAbs that have had their concentration-dependent viscosity behaviors previously determined. Multicopy molecular dynamics simulations were performed for these four CG mAbs at several concentrations to understand the effect of surface charge on mass diffusivity, pairwise interactions, and electrostatic network formation. Diffusion coefficients computed from simulations were in qualitative agreement with experimentally determined viscosities for all four mAbs. Contact analysis revealed an overall greater number of pairwise interactions for the two mAbs in this study with high concentration viscosity issues. Further, using equilibrated solution trajectories, the two mAbs with high concentration viscosity issues quantitatively formed more features of an electrostatic network than the other mAbs. The change in the number of these network features as a function of concentration is related to the number of pairwise interactions formed by electrostatic complementarities between antibody domains. Thus, transient antibody network formation caused by domain-domain electrostatic complementarities is the most probable origin of high concentration viscosity for mAbs in this study.

Exact p-values for pairwise comparison of Friedman rank sums, with application to comparing classifiers.

PubMed

Eisinga, Rob; Heskes, Tom; Pelzer, Ben; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred

2017-01-25

The Friedman rank sum test is a widely-used nonparametric method in computational biology. In addition to examining the overall null hypothesis of no significant difference among any of the rank sums, it is typically of interest to conduct pairwise comparison tests. Current approaches to such tests rely on large-sample approximations, due to the numerical complexity of computing the exact distribution. These approximate methods lead to inaccurate estimates in the tail of the distribution, which is most relevant for p-value calculation. We propose an efficient, combinatorial exact approach for calculating the probability mass distribution of the rank sum difference statistic for pairwise comparison of Friedman rank sums, and compare exact results with recommended asymptotic approximations. Whereas the chi-squared approximation performs inferiorly to exact computation overall, others, particularly the normal, perform well, except for the extreme tail. Hence exact calculation offers an improvement when small p-values occur following multiple testing correction. Exact inference also enhances the identification of significant differences whenever the observed values are close to the approximate critical value. We illustrate the proposed method in the context of biological machine learning, were Friedman rank sum difference tests are commonly used for the comparison of classifiers over multiple datasets. We provide a computationally fast method to determine the exact p-value of the absolute rank sum difference of a pair of Friedman rank sums, making asymptotic tests obsolete. Calculation of exact p-values is easy to implement in statistical software and the implementation in R is provided in one of the Additional files and is also available at http://www.ru.nl/publish/pages/726696/friedmanrsd.zip .

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to kinship problems.

PubMed

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2014-05-01

In forensic genetics, DNA profiles are compared in order to make inferences, paternity cases being a standard example. The statistical evidence can be summarized and reported in several ways. For example, in a paternity case, the likelihood ratio (LR) and the probability of not excluding a random man as father (RMNE) are two common summary statistics. There has been a long debate on the merits of the two statistics, also in the context of DNA mixture interpretation, and no general consensus has been reached. In this paper, we show that the RMNE is a certain weighted average of inverse likelihood ratios. This is true in any forensic context. We show that the likelihood ratio in favor of the correct hypothesis is, in expectation, bigger than the reciprocal of the RMNE probability. However, with the exception of pathological cases, it is also possible to obtain smaller likelihood ratios. We illustrate this result for paternity cases. Moreover, some theoretical properties of the likelihood ratio for a large class of general pairwise kinship cases, including expected value and variance, are derived. The practical implications of the findings are discussed and exemplified.

Equalization and detection for digital communication over nonlinear bandlimited satellite communication channels. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutierrez, Alberto, Jr.

1995-01-01

This dissertation evaluates receiver-based methods for mitigating the effects due to nonlinear bandlimited signal distortion present in high data rate satellite channels. The effects of the nonlinear bandlimited distortion is illustrated for digitally modulated signals. A lucid development of the low-pass Volterra discrete time model for a nonlinear communication channel is presented. In addition, finite-state machine models are explicitly developed for a nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. A nonlinear fixed equalizer based on Volterra series has previously been studied for compensation of noiseless signal distortion due to a nonlinear satellite channel. This dissertation studies adaptive Volterra equalizers on a downlink-limited nonlinear bandlimited satellite channel. We employ as figure of merits performance in the mean-square error and probability of error senses. In addition, a receiver consisting of a fractionally-spaced equalizer (FSE) followed by a Volterra equalizer (FSE-Volterra) is found to give improvement beyond that gained by the Volterra equalizer. Significant probability of error performance improvement is found for multilevel modulation schemes. Also, it is found that probability of error improvement is more significant for modulation schemes, constant amplitude and multilevel, which require higher signal to noise ratios (i.e., higher modulation orders) for reliable operation. The maximum likelihood sequence detection (MLSD) receiver for a nonlinear satellite channel, a bank of matched filters followed by a Viterbi detector, serves as a probability of error lower bound for the Volterra and FSE-Volterra equalizers. However, this receiver has not been evaluated for a specific satellite channel. In this work, an MLSD receiver is evaluated for a specific downlink-limited satellite channel. Because of the bank of matched filters, the MLSD receiver may be high in complexity. Consequently, the probability of error performance of a more practical suboptimal MLSD receiver, requiring only a single receive filter, is evaluated.

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices

PubMed Central

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G.; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N. C.; Binkofski, Ferdinand C.; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R.

2014-01-01

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music—happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones—and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the “happy” than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the “happy” condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the “sad” and “random tones” conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting. PMID:24432007

Music-evoked incidental happiness modulates probability weighting during risky lottery choices.

PubMed

Schulreich, Stefan; Heussen, Yana G; Gerhardt, Holger; Mohr, Peter N C; Binkofski, Ferdinand C; Koelsch, Stefan; Heekeren, Hauke R

2014-01-07

We often make decisions with uncertain consequences. The outcomes of the choices we make are usually not perfectly predictable but probabilistic, and the probabilities can be known or unknown. Probability judgments, i.e., the assessment of unknown probabilities, can be influenced by evoked emotional states. This suggests that also the weighting of known probabilities in decision making under risk might be influenced by incidental emotions, i.e., emotions unrelated to the judgments and decisions at issue. Probability weighting describes the transformation of probabilities into subjective decision weights for outcomes and is one of the central components of cumulative prospect theory (CPT) that determine risk attitudes. We hypothesized that music-evoked emotions would modulate risk attitudes in the gain domain and in particular probability weighting. Our experiment featured a within-subject design consisting of four conditions in separate sessions. In each condition, the 41 participants listened to a different kind of music-happy, sad, or no music, or sequences of random tones-and performed a repeated pairwise lottery choice task. We found that participants chose the riskier lotteries significantly more often in the "happy" than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Via structural regressions based on CPT, we found that the observed changes in participants' choices can be attributed to changes in the elevation parameter of the probability weighting function: in the "happy" condition, participants showed significantly higher decision weights associated with the larger payoffs than in the "sad" and "random tones" conditions. Moreover, elevation correlated positively with self-reported music-evoked happiness. Thus, our experimental results provide evidence in favor of a causal effect of incidental happiness on risk attitudes that can be explained by changes in probability weighting.

Simple, accurate formula for the average bit error probability of multiple-input multiple-output free-space optical links over negative exponential turbulence channels.

PubMed

Peppas, Kostas P; Lazarakis, Fotis; Alexandridis, Antonis; Dangakis, Kostas

2012-08-01

In this Letter we investigate the error performance of multiple-input multiple-output free-space optical communication systems employing intensity modulation/direct detection and operating over strong atmospheric turbulence channels. Atmospheric-induced strong turbulence fading is modeled using the negative exponential distribution. For the considered system, an approximate yet accurate analytical expression for the average bit error probability is derived and an efficient method for its numerical evaluation is proposed. Numerically evaluated and computer simulation results are further provided to demonstrate the validity of the proposed mathematical analysis.

Quantifying seining detection probability for fishes of Great Plains sand‐bed rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Logue, Daniel R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Species detection error (i.e., imperfect and variable detection probability) is an essential consideration when investigators map distributions and interpret habitat associations. When fish detection error that is due to highly variable instream environments needs to be addressed, sand‐bed streams of the Great Plains represent a unique challenge. We quantified seining detection probability for diminutive Great Plains fishes across a range of sampling conditions in two sand‐bed rivers in Oklahoma. Imperfect detection resulted in underestimates of species occurrence using naïve estimates, particularly for less common fishes. Seining detection probability also varied among fishes and across sampling conditions. We observed a quadratic relationship between water depth and detection probability, in which the exact nature of the relationship was species‐specific and dependent on water clarity. Similarly, the direction of the relationship between water clarity and detection probability was species‐specific and dependent on differences in water depth. The relationship between water temperature and detection probability was also species dependent, where both the magnitude and direction of the relationship varied among fishes. We showed how ignoring detection error confounded an underlying relationship between species occurrence and water depth. Despite imperfect and heterogeneous detection, our results support that determining species absence can be accomplished with two to six spatially replicated seine hauls per 200‐m reach under average sampling conditions; however, required effort would be higher under certain conditions. Detection probability was low for the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, which is federally listed as threatened, and more than 10 seine hauls per 200‐m reach would be required to assess presence across sampling conditions. Our model allows scientists to estimate sampling effort to confidently assess species occurrence, which maximizes the use of available resources. Increased implementation of approaches that consider detection error promote ecological advancements and conservation and management decisions that are better informed.

Experimental characterization of pairwise correlations from triple quantum correlated beams generated by cascaded four-wave mixing processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Cao, Leiming; Lou, Yanbo; Du, Jinjian; Jing, Jietai

2018-01-01

We theoretically and experimentally characterize the performance of the pairwise correlations from triple quantum correlated beams based on the cascaded four-wave mixing (FWM) processes. The pairwise correlations between any two of the beams are theoretically calculated and experimentally measured. The experimental and theoretical results are in good agreement. We find that two of the three pairwise correlations can be in the quantum regime. The other pairwise correlation is always in the classical regime. In addition, we also measure the triple-beam correlation which is always in the quantum regime. Such unbalanced and controllable pairwise correlation structures may be taken as advantages in practical quantum communications, for example, hierarchical quantum secret sharing. Our results also open the way for the classification and application of quantum states generated from the cascaded FWM processes.

A method to compute SEU fault probabilities in memory arrays with error correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gercek, Gokhan

1994-01-01

With the increasing packing densities in VLSI technology, Single Event Upsets (SEU) due to cosmic radiations are becoming more of a critical issue in the design of space avionics systems. In this paper, a method is introduced to compute the fault (mishap) probability for a computer memory of size M words. It is assumed that a Hamming code is used for each word to provide single error correction. It is also assumed that every time a memory location is read, single errors are corrected. Memory is read randomly whose distribution is assumed to be known. In such a scenario, a mishap is defined as two SEU's corrupting the same memory location prior to a read. The paper introduces a method to compute the overall mishap probability for the entire memory for a mission duration of T hours.

Adaptive Offset Correction for Intracortical Brain Computer Interfaces

PubMed Central

Homer, Mark L.; Perge, János A.; Black, Michael J.; Harrison, Matthew T.; Cash, Sydney S.; Hochberg, Leigh R.

2014-01-01

Intracortical brain computer interfaces (iBCIs) decode intended movement from neural activity for the control of external devices such as a robotic arm. Standard approaches include a calibration phase to estimate decoding parameters. During iBCI operation, the statistical properties of the neural activity can depart from those observed during calibration, sometimes hindering a user’s ability to control the iBCI. To address this problem, we adaptively correct the offset terms within a Kalman filter decoder via penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The approach can handle rapid shifts in neural signal behavior (on the order of seconds) and requires no knowledge of the intended movement. The algorithm, called MOCA, was tested using simulated neural activity and evaluated retrospectively using data collected from two people with tetraplegia operating an iBCI. In 19 clinical research test cases, where a nonadaptive Kalman filter yielded relatively high decoding errors, MOCA significantly reduced these errors (10.6 ±10.1%; p<0.05, pairwise t-test). MOCA did not significantly change the error in the remaining 23 cases where a nonadaptive Kalman filter already performed well. These results suggest that MOCA provides more robust decoding than the standard Kalman filter for iBCIs. PMID:24196868

Adaptive offset correction for intracortical brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Homer, Mark L; Perge, Janos A; Black, Michael J; Harrison, Matthew T; Cash, Sydney S; Hochberg, Leigh R

2014-03-01

Intracortical brain-computer interfaces (iBCIs) decode intended movement from neural activity for the control of external devices such as a robotic arm. Standard approaches include a calibration phase to estimate decoding parameters. During iBCI operation, the statistical properties of the neural activity can depart from those observed during calibration, sometimes hindering a user's ability to control the iBCI. To address this problem, we adaptively correct the offset terms within a Kalman filter decoder via penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The approach can handle rapid shifts in neural signal behavior (on the order of seconds) and requires no knowledge of the intended movement. The algorithm, called multiple offset correction algorithm (MOCA), was tested using simulated neural activity and evaluated retrospectively using data collected from two people with tetraplegia operating an iBCI. In 19 clinical research test cases, where a nonadaptive Kalman filter yielded relatively high decoding errors, MOCA significantly reduced these errors ( 10.6 ± 10.1% ; p < 0.05, pairwise t-test). MOCA did not significantly change the error in the remaining 23 cases where a nonadaptive Kalman filter already performed well. These results suggest that MOCA provides more robust decoding than the standard Kalman filter for iBCIs.

Further Improvements to Linear Mixed Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

2014-01-01

We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science. PMID:25387525

Further Improvements to Linear Mixed Models for Genome-Wide Association Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

2014-11-01

We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science.

Further improvements to linear mixed models for genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Widmer, Christian; Lippert, Christoph; Weissbrod, Omer; Fusi, Nicolo; Kadie, Carl; Davidson, Robert; Listgarten, Jennifer; Heckerman, David

2014-11-12

We examine improvements to the linear mixed model (LMM) that better correct for population structure and family relatedness in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). LMMs rely on the estimation of a genetic similarity matrix (GSM), which encodes the pairwise similarity between every two individuals in a cohort. These similarities are estimated from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) or other genetic variants. Traditionally, all available SNPs are used to estimate the GSM. In empirical studies across a wide range of synthetic and real data, we find that modifications to this approach improve GWAS performance as measured by type I error control and power. Specifically, when only population structure is present, a GSM constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype in combination with principal components as covariates controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. In any setting, with or without population structure or family relatedness, a GSM consisting of a mixture of two component GSMs, one constructed from all SNPs and another constructed from SNPs that well predict the phenotype again controls type I error and yields more power than the traditional LMM. Software implementing these improvements and the experimental comparisons are available at http://microsoft.com/science.

Multiple statistical tests: Lessons from a d20.

PubMed

Madan, Christopher R

2016-01-01

Statistical analyses are often conducted with α= .05. When multiple statistical tests are conducted, this procedure needs to be adjusted to compensate for the otherwise inflated Type I error. In some instances in tabletop gaming, sometimes it is desired to roll a 20-sided die (or 'd20') twice and take the greater outcome. Here I draw from probability theory and the case of a d20, where the probability of obtaining any specific outcome is (1)/ 20, to determine the probability of obtaining a specific outcome (Type-I error) at least once across repeated, independent statistical tests.

The price of complexity in financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; May, Robert M.; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

2016-09-01

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.

The price of complexity in financial networks.

PubMed

Battiston, Stefano; Caldarelli, Guido; May, Robert M; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E

2016-09-06

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.

Identity-by-Descent-Based Phasing and Imputation in Founder Populations Using Graphical Models

PubMed Central

Palin, Kimmo; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F; Wilson, James F; Durbin, Richard

2011-01-01

Accurate knowledge of haplotypes, the combination of alleles co-residing on a single copy of a chromosome, enables powerful gene mapping and sequence imputation methods. Since humans are diploid, haplotypes must be derived from genotypes by a phasing process. In this study, we present a new computational model for haplotype phasing based on pairwise sharing of haplotypes inferred to be Identical-By-Descent (IBD). We apply the Bayesian network based model in a new phasing algorithm, called systematic long-range phasing (SLRP), that can capitalize on the close genetic relationships in isolated founder populations, and show with simulated and real genome-wide genotype data that SLRP substantially reduces the rate of phasing errors compared to previous phasing algorithms. Furthermore, the method accurately identifies regions of IBD, enabling linkage-like studies without pedigrees, and can be used to impute most genotypes with very low error rate. Genet. Epidemiol. 2011. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.35:853-860, 2011 PMID:22006673

Rapid Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing Using Forward Laser Light Scatter Technology.

PubMed

Hayden, Randall T; Clinton, Lani K; Hewitt, Carolyn; Koyamatsu, Terri; Sun, Yilun; Jamison, Ginger; Perkins, Rosalie; Tang, Li; Pounds, Stanley; Bankowski, Matthew J

2016-11-01

The delayed reporting of antimicrobial susceptibility testing remains a limiting factor in clinical decision-making in the treatment of bacterial infection. This study evaluates the use of forward laser light scatter (FLLS) to measure bacterial growth for the early determination of antimicrobial susceptibility. Three isolates each (two clinical isolates and one reference strain) of Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa were tested in triplicate using two commercial antimicrobial testing systems, the Vitek2 and the MicroScan MIC panel, to challenge the BacterioScan FLLS. The BacterioScan FLLS showed a high degree of categorical concordance with the commercial methods. Pairwise comparison with each commercial system serving as a reference standard showed 88.9% agreement with MicroScan (two minor errors) and 72.2% agreement with Vitek (five minor errors). FLLS using the BacterioScan system shows promise as a novel method for the rapid and accurate determination of antimicrobial susceptibility. Copyright © 2016, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Permanence analysis of a concatenated coding scheme for error control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.; Kasami, T.

1983-01-01

A concatenated coding scheme for error control in data communications is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code is used for both error correction and detection, however, the outer code is used only for error detection. A retransmission is requested if the outer code detects the presence of errors after the inner code decoding. Probability of undetected error is derived and bounded. A particular example, proposed for the planetary program, is analyzed.

A Parallel Decoding Algorithm for Short Polar Codes Based on Error Checking and Correcting

PubMed Central

Pan, Xiaofei; Pan, Kegang; Ye, Zhan; Gong, Chao

2014-01-01

We propose a parallel decoding algorithm based on error checking and correcting to improve the performance of the short polar codes. In order to enhance the error-correcting capacity of the decoding algorithm, we first derive the error-checking equations generated on the basis of the frozen nodes, and then we introduce the method to check the errors in the input nodes of the decoder by the solutions of these equations. In order to further correct those checked errors, we adopt the method of modifying the probability messages of the error nodes with constant values according to the maximization principle. Due to the existence of multiple solutions of the error-checking equations, we formulate a CRC-aided optimization problem of finding the optimal solution with three different target functions, so as to improve the accuracy of error checking. Besides, in order to increase the throughput of decoding, we use a parallel method based on the decoding tree to calculate probability messages of all the nodes in the decoder. Numerical results show that the proposed decoding algorithm achieves better performance than that of some existing decoding algorithms with the same code length. PMID:25540813

MASTER: a model to improve and standardize clinical breakpoints for antimicrobial susceptibility testing using forecast probabilities.

PubMed

Blöchliger, Nicolas; Keller, Peter M; Böttger, Erik C; Hombach, Michael

2017-09-01

The procedure for setting clinical breakpoints (CBPs) for antimicrobial susceptibility has been poorly standardized with respect to population data, pharmacokinetic parameters and clinical outcome. Tools to standardize CBP setting could result in improved antibiogram forecast probabilities. We propose a model to estimate probabilities for methodological categorization errors and defined zones of methodological uncertainty (ZMUs), i.e. ranges of zone diameters that cannot reliably be classified. The impact of ZMUs on methodological error rates was used for CBP optimization. The model distinguishes theoretical true inhibition zone diameters from observed diameters, which suffer from methodological variation. True diameter distributions are described with a normal mixture model. The model was fitted to observed inhibition zone diameters of clinical Escherichia coli strains. Repeated measurements for a quality control strain were used to quantify methodological variation. For 9 of 13 antibiotics analysed, our model predicted error rates of < 0.1% applying current EUCAST CBPs. Error rates were > 0.1% for ampicillin, cefoxitin, cefuroxime and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid. Increasing the susceptible CBP (cefoxitin) and introducing ZMUs (ampicillin, cefuroxime, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid) decreased error rates to < 0.1%. ZMUs contained low numbers of isolates for ampicillin and cefuroxime (3% and 6%), whereas the ZMU for amoxicillin/clavulanic acid contained 41% of all isolates and was considered not practical. We demonstrate that CBPs can be improved and standardized by minimizing methodological categorization error rates. ZMUs may be introduced if an intermediate zone is not appropriate for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic or drug dosing reasons. Optimized CBPs will provide a standardized antibiotic susceptibility testing interpretation at a defined level of probability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Query-seeded iterative sequence similarity searching improves selectivity 5–20-fold

PubMed Central

Li, Weizhong; Lopez, Rodrigo

2017-01-01

Abstract Iterative similarity search programs, like psiblast, jackhmmer, and psisearch, are much more sensitive than pairwise similarity search methods like blast and ssearch because they build a position specific scoring model (a PSSM or HMM) that captures the pattern of sequence conservation characteristic to a protein family. But models are subject to contamination; once an unrelated sequence has been added to the model, homologs of the unrelated sequence will also produce high scores, and the model can diverge from the original protein family. Examination of alignment errors during psiblast PSSM contamination suggested a simple strategy for dramatically reducing PSSM contamination. psiblast PSSMs are built from the query-based multiple sequence alignment (MSA) implied by the pairwise alignments between the query model (PSSM, HMM) and the subject sequences in the library. When the original query sequence residues are inserted into gapped positions in the aligned subject sequence, the resulting PSSM rarely produces alignment over-extensions or alignments to unrelated sequences. This simple step, which tends to anchor the PSSM to the original query sequence and slightly increase target percent identity, can reduce the frequency of false-positive alignments more than 20-fold compared with psiblast and jackhmmer, with little loss in search sensitivity. PMID:27923999

A Generic multi-dimensional feature extraction method using multiobjective genetic programming.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Rockett, Peter I

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a generic feature extraction method for pattern classification using multiobjective genetic programming. This not only evolves the (near-)optimal set of mappings from a pattern space to a multi-dimensional decision space, but also simultaneously optimizes the dimensionality of that decision space. The presented framework evolves vector-to-vector feature extractors that maximize class separability. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by making statistically-founded comparisons with a wide variety of established classifier paradigms over a range of datasets and find that for most of the pairwise comparisons, our evolutionary method delivers statistically smaller misclassification errors. At very worst, our method displays no statistical difference in a few pairwise comparisons with established classifier/dataset combinations; crucially, none of the misclassification results produced by our method is worse than any comparator classifier. Although principally focused on feature extraction, feature selection is also performed as an implicit side effect; we show that both feature extraction and selection are important to the success of our technique. The presented method has the practical consequence of obviating the need to exhaustively evaluate a large family of conventional classifiers when faced with a new pattern recognition problem in order to attain a good classification accuracy.

Developing approaches for linear mixed modeling in landscape genetics through landscape-directed dispersal simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Row, Jeffrey R.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Lougheed, Stephen C.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2017-01-01

Dispersal can impact population dynamics and geographic variation, and thus, genetic approaches that can establish which landscape factors influence population connectivity have ecological and evolutionary importance. Mixed models that account for the error structure of pairwise datasets are increasingly used to compare models relating genetic differentiation to pairwise measures of landscape resistance. A model selection framework based on information criteria metrics or explained variance may help disentangle the ecological and landscape factors influencing genetic structure, yet there are currently no consensus for the best protocols. Here, we develop landscape-directed simulations and test a series of replicates that emulate independent empirical datasets of two species with different life history characteristics (greater sage-grouse; eastern foxsnake). We determined that in our simulated scenarios, AIC and BIC were the best model selection indices and that marginal R2 values were biased toward more complex models. The model coefficients for landscape variables generally reflected the underlying dispersal model with confidence intervals that did not overlap with zero across the entire model set. When we controlled for geographic distance, variables not in the underlying dispersal models (i.e., nontrue) typically overlapped zero. Our study helps establish methods for using linear mixed models to identify the features underlying patterns of dispersal across a variety of landscapes.

Modeling protein conformational changes by iterative fitting of distance constraints using reoriented normal modes.

PubMed

Zheng, Wenjun; Brooks, Bernard R

2006-06-15

Recently we have developed a normal-modes-based algorithm that predicts the direction of protein conformational changes given the initial state crystal structure together with a small number of pairwise distance constraints for the end state. Here we significantly extend this method to accurately model both the direction and amplitude of protein conformational changes. The new protocol implements a multisteps search in the conformational space that is driven by iteratively minimizing the error of fitting the given distance constraints and simultaneously enforcing the restraint of low elastic energy. At each step, an incremental structural displacement is computed as a linear combination of the lowest 10 normal modes derived from an elastic network model, whose eigenvectors are reorientated to correct for the distortions caused by the structural displacements in the previous steps. We test this method on a list of 16 pairs of protein structures for which relatively large conformational changes are observed (root mean square deviation >3 angstroms), using up to 10 pairwise distance constraints selected by a fluctuation analysis of the initial state structures. This method has achieved a near-optimal performance in almost all cases, and in many cases the final structural models lie within root mean square deviation of 1 approximately 2 angstroms from the native end state structures.

Kernel machine methods for integrative analysis of genome-wide methylation and genotyping studies.

PubMed

Zhao, Ni; Zhan, Xiang; Huang, Yen-Tsung; Almli, Lynn M; Smith, Alicia; Epstein, Michael P; Conneely, Karen; Wu, Michael C

2018-03-01

Many large GWAS consortia are expanding to simultaneously examine the joint role of DNA methylation in addition to genotype in the same subjects. However, integrating information from both data types is challenging. In this paper, we propose a composite kernel machine regression model to test the joint epigenetic and genetic effect. Our approach works at the gene level, which allows for a common unit of analysis across different data types. The model compares the pairwise similarities in the phenotype to the pairwise similarities in the genotype and methylation values; and high correspondence is suggestive of association. A composite kernel is constructed to measure the similarities in the genotype and methylation values between pairs of samples. We demonstrate through simulations and real data applications that the proposed approach can correctly control type I error, and is more robust and powerful than using only the genotype or methylation data in detecting trait-associated genes. We applied our method to investigate the genetic and epigenetic regulation of gene expression in response to stressful life events using data that are collected from the Grady Trauma Project. Within the kernel machine testing framework, our methods allow for heterogeneity in effect sizes, nonlinear, and interactive effects, as well as rapid P-value computation. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

Manipulation of Karyotype in Caenorhabditis elegans Reveals Multiple Inputs Driving Pairwise Chromosome Synapsis During Meiosis

PubMed Central

Roelens, Baptiste; Schvarzstein, Mara; Villeneuve, Anne M.

2015-01-01

Meiotic chromosome segregation requires pairwise association between homologs, stabilized by the synaptonemal complex (SC). Here, we investigate factors contributing to pairwise synapsis by investigating meiosis in polyploid worms. We devised a strategy, based on transient inhibition of cohesin function, to generate polyploid derivatives of virtually any Caenorhabditis elegans strain. We exploited this strategy to investigate the contribution of recombination to pairwise synapsis in tetraploid and triploid worms. In otherwise wild-type polyploids, chromosomes first sort into homolog groups, then multipartner interactions mature into exclusive pairwise associations. Pairwise synapsis associations still form in recombination-deficient tetraploids, confirming a propensity for synapsis to occur in a strictly pairwise manner. However, the transition from multipartner to pairwise association was perturbed in recombination-deficient triploids, implying a role for recombination in promoting this transition when three partners compete for synapsis. To evaluate the basis of synapsis partner preference, we generated polyploid worms heterozygous for normal sequence and rearranged chromosomes sharing the same pairing center (PC). Tetraploid worms had no detectable preference for identical partners, indicating that PC-adjacent homology drives partner choice in this context. In contrast, triploid worms exhibited a clear preference for identical partners, indicating that homology outside the PC region can influence partner choice. Together, our findings, suggest a two-phase model for C. elegans synapsis: an early phase, in which initial synapsis interactions are driven primarily by recombination-independent assessment of homology near PCs and by a propensity for pairwise SC assembly, and a later phase in which mature synaptic interactions are promoted by recombination. PMID:26500263

The Performance of Noncoherent Orthogonal M-FSK in the Presence of Timing and Frequency Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinedi, Sami; Simon, Marvin K.; Raphaeli, Dan

1993-01-01

Practical M-FSK systems experience a combination of time and frequency offsets (errors). This paper assesses the deleterious effect of these offsets, first individually and then combined, on the average bit error probability performance of the system.

Performance analysis of a cascaded coding scheme with interleaved outer code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A cascaded coding scheme for a random error channel with a bit-error rate is analyzed. In this scheme, the inner code C sub 1 is an (n sub 1, m sub 1l) binary linear block code which is designed for simultaneous error correction and detection. The outer code C sub 2 is a linear block code with symbols from the Galois field GF (2 sup l) which is designed for correcting both symbol errors and erasures, and is interleaved with a degree m sub 1. A procedure for computing the probability of a correct decoding is presented and an upper bound on the probability of a decoding error is derived. The bound provides much better results than the previous bound for a cascaded coding scheme with an interleaved outer code. Example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates are evaluated. Several schemes provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit-error rates say 10 to the -1 to 10 to the -2 power.

Structure based alignment and clustering of proteins (STRALCP)

DOEpatents

Zemla, Adam T.; Zhou, Carol E.; Smith, Jason R.; Lam, Marisa W.

2013-06-18

Disclosed are computational methods of clustering a set of protein structures based on local and pair-wise global similarity values. Pair-wise local and global similarity values are generated based on pair-wise structural alignments for each protein in the set of protein structures. Initially, the protein structures are clustered based on pair-wise local similarity values. The protein structures are then clustered based on pair-wise global similarity values. For each given cluster both a representative structure and spans of conserved residues are identified. The representative protein structure is used to assign newly-solved protein structures to a group. The spans are used to characterize conservation and assign a "structural footprint" to the cluster.

Spatial interactions of yarded White-tailed Deer, Odocoileus virginianus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, M.E.; Sargeant, G.A.

2008-01-01

We examined the spatial interactions of nine female White-tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in two deeryards (winter aggregations) in northeastern Minnesota during February-April 1999. Global positioning system (GPS) collars yielded seven pair-wise comparisons of deer that were located at the same time (???1 minute apart) and mat used overlapping areas. Deer traveled separately and did not associate with one another. Within overlapping areas, comparisons of distances between deer and distances between random locations indicated deer moved without regard to each other. Similarly, comparisons of observed and expected probabilities of deer using areas overlapping those of other deer also evinced that deer moved independently.

A Sensitivity Analysis of Circular Error Probable Approximation Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-03-01

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF CIRCULAR ERROR PROBABLE APPROXIMATION TECHNIQUES THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the School of Engineering of the Air Force...programming skills. Major Paul Auclair patiently advised me in this endeavor, and Major Andy Howell added numerous insightful contributions. I thank my...techniques. The two ret(st accuratec techniiques require numerical integration and can take several hours to run ov a personal comlputer [2:1-2,4-6]. Some

Observation of non-classical correlations in sequential measurements of photon polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yutaro; Iinuma, Masataka; Hofmann, Holger F.

2016-10-01

A sequential measurement of two non-commuting quantum observables results in a joint probability distribution for all output combinations that can be explained in terms of an initial joint quasi-probability of the non-commuting observables, modified by the resolution errors and back-action of the initial measurement. Here, we show that the error statistics of a sequential measurement of photon polarization performed at different measurement strengths can be described consistently by an imaginary correlation between the statistics of resolution and back-action. The experimental setup was designed to realize variable strength measurements with well-controlled imaginary correlation between the statistical errors caused by the initial measurement of diagonal polarizations, followed by a precise measurement of the horizontal/vertical polarization. We perform the experimental characterization of an elliptically polarized input state and show that the same complex joint probability distribution is obtained at any measurement strength.

Measurement error in earnings data: Using a mixture model approach to combine survey and register data.

PubMed

Meijer, Erik; Rohwedder, Susann; Wansbeek, Tom

2012-01-01

Survey data on earnings tend to contain measurement error. Administrative data are superior in principle, but they are worthless in case of a mismatch. We develop methods for prediction in mixture factor analysis models that combine both data sources to arrive at a single earnings figure. We apply the methods to a Swedish data set. Our results show that register earnings data perform poorly if there is a (small) probability of a mismatch. Survey earnings data are more reliable, despite their measurement error. Predictors that combine both and take conditional class probabilities into account outperform all other predictors.

Soft-decision decoding techniques for linear block codes and their error performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu

1996-01-01

The first paper presents a new minimum-weight trellis-based soft-decision iterative decoding algorithm for binary linear block codes. The second paper derives an upper bound on the probability of block error for multilevel concatenated codes (MLCC). The bound evaluates difference in performance for different decompositions of some codes. The third paper investigates the bit error probability code for maximum likelihood decoding of binary linear codes. The fourth and final paper included in this report is concerns itself with the construction of multilevel concatenated block modulation codes using a multilevel concatenation scheme for the frequency non-selective Rayleigh fading channel.

The Limits of Coding with Joint Constraints on Detected and Undetected Error Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dolinar, Sam; Andrews, Kenneth; Pollara, Fabrizio; Divsalar, Dariush

2008-01-01

We develop a remarkably tight upper bound on the performance of a parameterized family of bounded angle maximum-likelihood (BA-ML) incomplete decoders. The new bound for this class of incomplete decoders is calculated from the code's weight enumerator, and is an extension of Poltyrev-type bounds developed for complete ML decoders. This bound can also be applied to bound the average performance of random code ensembles in terms of an ensemble average weight enumerator. We also formulate conditions defining a parameterized family of optimal incomplete decoders, defined to minimize both the total codeword error probability and the undetected error probability for any fixed capability of the decoder to detect errors. We illustrate the gap between optimal and BA-ML incomplete decoding via simulation of a small code.

Saliency Detection via Absorbing Markov Chain With Learnt Transition Probability.

PubMed

Lihe Zhang; Jianwu Ai; Bowen Jiang; Huchuan Lu; Xiukui Li

2018-02-01

In this paper, we propose a bottom-up saliency model based on absorbing Markov chain (AMC). First, a sparsely connected graph is constructed to capture the local context information of each node. All image boundary nodes and other nodes are, respectively, treated as the absorbing nodes and transient nodes in the absorbing Markov chain. Then, the expected number of times from each transient node to all other transient nodes can be used to represent the saliency value of this node. The absorbed time depends on the weights on the path and their spatial coordinates, which are completely encoded in the transition probability matrix. Considering the importance of this matrix, we adopt different hierarchies of deep features extracted from fully convolutional networks and learn a transition probability matrix, which is called learnt transition probability matrix. Although the performance is significantly promoted, salient objects are not uniformly highlighted very well. To solve this problem, an angular embedding technique is investigated to refine the saliency results. Based on pairwise local orderings, which are produced by the saliency maps of AMC and boundary maps, we rearrange the global orderings (saliency value) of all nodes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on six publicly available benchmark data sets.

Socioeconomic inequalities in child mortality: comparisons across nine developing countries.

PubMed Central

Wagstaff, A.

2000-01-01

This paper generates and analyses survey data on inequalities in mortality among infants and children aged under five years by consumption in Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nepal, Nicaragua, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, and Viet Nam. The data were obtained from the Living Standards Measurement Study and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Mortality rates were estimated directly where complete fertility histories were available and indirectly otherwise. Mortality distributions were compared between countries by means of concentration curves and concentration indices: dominance checks were carried out for all pairwise intercountry comparisons; standard errors were calculated for the concentration indices; and tests of intercountry differences in inequality were performed. PMID:10686730

Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, Stuart G.

2013-05-01

Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

The price of complexity in financial networks

PubMed Central

May, Robert M.; Roukny, Tarik; Stiglitz, Joseph E.

2016-01-01

Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises. PMID:27555583

Gaussian Hypothesis Testing and Quantum Illumination.

PubMed

Wilde, Mark M; Tomamichel, Marco; Lloyd, Seth; Berta, Mario

2017-09-22

Quantum hypothesis testing is one of the most basic tasks in quantum information theory and has fundamental links with quantum communication and estimation theory. In this paper, we establish a formula that characterizes the decay rate of the minimal type-II error probability in a quantum hypothesis test of two Gaussian states given a fixed constraint on the type-I error probability. This formula is a direct function of the mean vectors and covariance matrices of the quantum Gaussian states in question. We give an application to quantum illumination, which is the task of determining whether there is a low-reflectivity object embedded in a target region with a bright thermal-noise bath. For the asymmetric-error setting, we find that a quantum illumination transmitter can achieve an error probability exponent stronger than a coherent-state transmitter of the same mean photon number, and furthermore, that it requires far fewer trials to do so. This occurs when the background thermal noise is either low or bright, which means that a quantum advantage is even easier to witness than in the symmetric-error setting because it occurs for a larger range of parameters. Going forward from here, we expect our formula to have applications in settings well beyond those considered in this paper, especially to quantum communication tasks involving quantum Gaussian channels.

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.; Qi, S.L.

2007-01-01

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Network problem threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gejji, Raghvendra, R.

1992-01-01

Network transmission errors such as collisions, CRC errors, misalignment, etc. are statistical in nature. Although errors can vary randomly, a high level of errors does indicate specific network problems, e.g. equipment failure. In this project, we have studied the random nature of collisions theoretically as well as by gathering statistics, and established a numerical threshold above which a network problem is indicated with high probability.

Transition probabilities for general birth-death processes with applications in ecology, genetics, and evolution

PubMed Central

Crawford, Forrest W.; Suchard, Marc A.

2011-01-01

A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with n current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate λn and a particle dies with instantaneous rate μn. Currently no robust and efficient method exists to evaluate the finite-time transition probabilities in a general birth-death process with arbitrary birth and death rates. In this paper, we first revisit the theory of continued fractions to obtain expressions for the Laplace transforms of these transition probabilities and make explicit an important derivation connecting transition probabilities and continued fractions. We then develop an efficient algorithm for computing these probabilities that analyzes the error associated with approximations in the method. We demonstrate that this error-controlled method agrees with known solutions and outperforms previous approaches to computing these probabilities. Finally, we apply our novel method to several important problems in ecology, evolution, and genetics. PMID:21984359

Population structure and covariate analysis based on pairwise microsatellite allele matching frequencies.

PubMed

Givens, Geof H; Ozaksoy, Isin

2007-01-01

We describe a general model for pairwise microsatellite allele matching probabilities. The model can be used for analysis of population substructure, and is particularly focused on relating genetic correlation to measurable covariates. The approach is intended for cases when the existence of subpopulations is uncertain and a priori assignment of samples to hypothesized subpopulations is difficult. Such a situation arises, for example, with western Arctic bowhead whales, where genetic samples are available only from a possibly mixed migratory assemblage. We estimate genetic structure associated with spatial, temporal, or other variables that may confound the detection of population structure. In the bowhead case, the model permits detection of genetic patterns associated with a temporally pulsed multi-population assemblage in the annual migration. Hypothesis tests for population substructure and for covariate effects can be carried out using permutation methods. Simulated and real examples illustrate the effectiveness and reliability of the approach and enable comparisons with other familiar approaches. Analysis of the bowhead data finds no evidence for two temporally pulsed subpopulations using the best available data, although a significant pattern found by other researchers using preliminary data is also confirmed here. Code in the R language is available from www.stat.colostate.edu/~geof/gammmp.html.

Hybrid computer technique yields random signal probability distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cameron, W. D.

1965-01-01

Hybrid computer determines the probability distributions of instantaneous and peak amplitudes of random signals. This combined digital and analog computer system reduces the errors and delays of manual data analysis.

Quantum-state comparison and discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, A.; Hashimoto, T.; Horibe, M.

2018-05-01

We investigate the performance of discrimination strategy in the comparison task of known quantum states. In the discrimination strategy, one infers whether or not two quantum systems are in the same state on the basis of the outcomes of separate discrimination measurements on each system. In some cases with more than two possible states, the optimal strategy in minimum-error comparison is that one should infer the two systems are in different states without any measurement, implying that the discrimination strategy performs worse than the trivial "no-measurement" strategy. We present a sufficient condition for this phenomenon to happen. For two pure states with equal prior probabilities, we determine the optimal comparison success probability with an error margin, which interpolates the minimum-error and unambiguous comparison. We find that the discrimination strategy is not optimal except for the minimum-error case.

Type-II generalized family-wise error rate formulas with application to sample size determination.

PubMed

Delorme, Phillipe; de Micheaux, Pierre Lafaye; Liquet, Benoit; Riou, Jérémie

2016-07-20

Multiple endpoints are increasingly used in clinical trials. The significance of some of these clinical trials is established if at least r null hypotheses are rejected among m that are simultaneously tested. The usual approach in multiple hypothesis testing is to control the family-wise error rate, which is defined as the probability that at least one type-I error is made. More recently, the q-generalized family-wise error rate has been introduced to control the probability of making at least q false rejections. For procedures controlling this global type-I error rate, we define a type-II r-generalized family-wise error rate, which is directly related to the r-power defined as the probability of rejecting at least r false null hypotheses. We obtain very general power formulas that can be used to compute the sample size for single-step and step-wise procedures. These are implemented in our R package rPowerSampleSize available on the CRAN, making them directly available to end users. Complexities of the formulas are presented to gain insight into computation time issues. Comparison with Monte Carlo strategy is also presented. We compute sample sizes for two clinical trials involving multiple endpoints: one designed to investigate the effectiveness of a drug against acute heart failure and the other for the immunogenicity of a vaccine strategy against pneumococcus. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Multiple symbol partially coherent detection of MPSK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, M. K.; Divsalar, D.

1992-01-01

It is shown that by using the known (or estimated) value of carrier tracking loop signal to noise ratio (SNR) in the decision metric, it is possible to improve the error probability performance of a partially coherent multiple phase-shift-keying (MPSK) system relative to that corresponding to the commonly used ideal coherent decision rule. Using a maximum-likeihood approach, an optimum decision metric is derived and shown to take the form of a weighted sum of the ideal coherent decision metric (i.e., correlation) and the noncoherent decision metric which is optimum for differential detection of MPSK. The performance of a receiver based on this optimum decision rule is derived and shown to provide continued improvement with increasing length of observation interval (data symbol sequence length). Unfortunately, increasing the observation length does not eliminate the error floor associated with the finite loop SNR. Nevertheless, in the limit of infinite observation length, the average error probability performance approaches the algebraic sum of the error floor and the performance of ideal coherent detection, i.e., at any error probability above the error floor, there is no degradation due to the partial coherence. It is shown that this limiting behavior is virtually achievable with practical size observation lengths. Furthermore, the performance is quite insensitive to mismatch between the estimate of loop SNR (e.g., obtained from measurement) fed to the decision metric and its true value. These results may be of use in low-cost Earth-orbiting or deep-space missions employing coded modulations.

Probability Theory, Not the Very Guide of Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Hakan; Winman, Anders

2009-01-01

Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive…

Further investigations of the W-test for pairwise epistasis testing.

PubMed

Howey, Richard; Cordell, Heather J

2017-01-01

Background: In a recent paper, a novel W-test for pairwise epistasis testing was proposed that appeared, in computer simulations, to have higher power than competing alternatives. Application to genome-wide bipolar data detected significant epistasis between SNPs in genes of relevant biological function. Network analysis indicated that the implicated genes formed two separate interaction networks, each containing genes highly related to autism and neurodegenerative disorders. Methods: Here we investigate further the properties and performance of the W-test via theoretical evaluation, computer simulations and application to real data. Results: We demonstrate that, for common variants, the W-test is closely related to several existing tests of association allowing for interaction, including logistic regression on 8 degrees of freedom, although logistic regression can show inflated type I error for low minor allele frequencies,  whereas the W-test shows good/conservative type I error control. Although in some situations the W-test can show higher power, logistic regression is not limited to tests on 8 degrees of freedom but can instead be tailored to impose greater structure on the assumed alternative hypothesis, offering a power advantage when the imposed structure matches the true structure. Conclusions: The W-test is a potentially useful method for testing for association - without necessarily implying interaction - between genetic variants disease, particularly when one or more of the genetic variants are rare. For common variants, the advantages of the W-test are less clear, and, indeed, there are situations where existing methods perform better. In our investigations, we further uncover a number of problems with the practical implementation and application of the W-test (to bipolar disorder) previously described, apparently due to inadequate use of standard data quality-control procedures. This observation leads us to urge caution in interpretation of the previously-presented results, most of which we consider are highly likely to be artefacts.

Development of a Methodology to Optimally Allocate Visual Inspection Time

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-06-01

Model and then takes into account the costs of the errors. The purpose of the Alternative Model is to not make 104 costly mistakes while meeting the...James Buck, and Virgil Anderson, AIIE Transactions, Volume 11, No.4, December 1979. 26. "Inspection of Sheet Materials - Model and Data", Colin G. Drury ...worker error, the probability of inspector error, and the cost of system error. Paired comparisons of error phenomena from operational personnel are

Discrepancy-based error estimates for Quasi-Monte Carlo III. Error distributions and central limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoogland, Jiri; Kleiss, Ronald

1997-04-01

In Quasi-Monte Carlo integration, the integration error is believed to be generally smaller than in classical Monte Carlo with the same number of integration points. Using an appropriate definition of an ensemble of quasi-random point sets, we derive various results on the probability distribution of the integration error, which can be compared to the standard Central Limit Theorem for normal stochastic sampling. In many cases, a Gaussian error distribution is obtained.

Role of conviction in nonequilibrium models of opinion formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crokidakis, Nuno; Anteneodo, Celia

2012-12-01

We analyze the critical behavior of a class of discrete opinion models in the presence of disorder. Within this class, each agent opinion takes a discrete value (±1 or 0) and its time evolution is ruled by two terms, one representing agent-agent interactions and the other the degree of conviction or persuasion (a self-interaction). The mean-field limit, where each agent can interact evenly with any other, is considered. Disorder is introduced in the strength of both interactions, with either quenched or annealed random variables. With probability p (1-p), a pairwise interaction reflects a negative (positive) coupling, while the degree of conviction also follows a binary probability distribution (two different discrete probability distributions are considered). Numerical simulations show that a nonequilibrium continuous phase transition, from a disordered state to a state with a prevailing opinion, occurs at a critical point pc that depends on the distribution of the convictions, with the transition being spoiled in some cases. We also show how the critical line, for each model, is affected by the update scheme (either parallel or sequential) as well as by the kind of disorder (either quenched or annealed).

Acrocentric chromosome associations in man.

PubMed Central

Jacobs, P A; Mayer, M; Morton, N E

1976-01-01

Heterogeneity among chromosomes was found to be a highly significant source of variation for association proportions, while culture, slide, and observer were negligible sources of variation for association proportions although important for numbers of associations. The consequences of these results for tests of group differences are discussed. It seems evident that each pair of acrocentric chromosomes has its own characteristic probability of entering into association. This is presumably a combination of the probability for each individual member of the pair, a proposition easily tested utilizing acrocentric chromosomes carrying polymorphisms which allow each member of the pair to be individually recognized. A mathematical theory for pairwise satellite association was developed and shown to fit observations on banded chromosomes. While we found very significant heterogeneity among individuals in the frequency with which different chromosomes entered into associations, there was no significant evidence for preferential association between any particular chromosomes, either heterologous or homologous. This finding in our material of apparently random associations between different chromosomes is contrary to claims made by other investigators and should be tested on other material. No correlation was found between the phenotype of the chromosome, as judged by cytogenetic polymorphisms, and its probability of association. PMID:795295

On the Discriminant Analysis in the 2-Populations Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rublík, František

2008-01-01

The empirical Bayes Gaussian rule, which in the normal case yields good values of the probability of total error, may yield high values of the maximum probability error. From this point of view the presented modified version of the classification rule of Broffitt, Randles and Hogg appears to be superior. The modification included in this paper is termed as a WR method, and the choice of its weights is discussed. The mentioned methods are also compared with the K nearest neighbours classification rule.

Towards Automated Structure-Based NMR Resonance Assignment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Richard; Gao, Xin; Li, Ming

We propose a general framework for solving the structure-based NMR backbone resonance assignment problem. The core is a novel 0-1 integer programming model that can start from a complete or partial assignment, generate multiple assignments, and model not only the assignment of spins to residues, but also pairwise dependencies consisting of pairs of spins to pairs of residues. It is still a challenge for automated resonance assignment systems to perform the assignment directly from spectra without any manual intervention. To test the feasibility of this for structure-based assignment, we integrated our system with our automated peak picking and sequence-based resonance assignment system to obtain an assignment for the protein TM1112 with 91% recall and 99% precision without manual intervention. Since using a known structure has the potential to allow one to use only N-labeled NMR data and avoid the added expense of using C-labeled data, we work towards the goal of automated structure-based assignment using only such labeled data. Our system reduced the assignment error of Xiong-Pandurangan-Bailey-Kellogg's contact replacement (CR) method, which to our knowledge is the most error-tolerant method for this problem, by 5 folds on average. By using an iterative algorithm, our system has the added capability of using the NOESY data to correct assignment errors due to errors in predicting the amino acid and secondary structure type of each spin system. On a publicly available data set for Ubiquitin, where the type prediction accuracy is 83%, we achieved 91% assignment accuracy, compared to the 59% accuracy that was obtained without correcting for typing errors.

Monitoring Instrument Performance in Regional Broadband Seismic Network Using Ambient Seismic Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, F.; Lyu, S.; Lin, J.

2017-12-01

In the past ten years, the number of seismic stations has increased significantly, and regional seismic networks with advanced technology have been gradually developed all over the world. The resulting broadband data help to improve the seismological research. It is important to monitor the performance of broadband instruments in a new network in a long period of time to ensure the accuracy of seismic records. Here, we propose a method that uses ambient noise data in the period range 5-25 s to monitor instrument performance and check data quality in situ. The method is based on an analysis of amplitude and phase index parameters calculated from pairwise cross-correlations of three stations, which provides multiple references for reliable error estimates. Index parameters calculated daily during a two-year observation period are evaluated to identify stations with instrument response errors in near real time. During data processing, initial instrument responses are used in place of available instrument responses to simulate instrument response errors, which are then used to verify our results. We also examine feasibility of the tailing noise using data from stations selected from USArray in different locations and analyze the possible instrumental errors resulting in time-shifts used to verify the method. Additionally, we show an application that effects of instrument response errors that experience pole-zeros variations on monitoring temporal variations in crustal properties appear statistically significant velocity perturbation larger than the standard deviation. The results indicate that monitoring seismic instrument performance helps eliminate data pollution before analysis begins.

Nonparametric probability density estimation by optimization theoretic techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, D. W.

1976-01-01

Two nonparametric probability density estimators are considered. The first is the kernel estimator. The problem of choosing the kernel scaling factor based solely on a random sample is addressed. An interactive mode is discussed and an algorithm proposed to choose the scaling factor automatically. The second nonparametric probability estimate uses penalty function techniques with the maximum likelihood criterion. A discrete maximum penalized likelihood estimator is proposed and is shown to be consistent in the mean square error. A numerical implementation technique for the discrete solution is discussed and examples displayed. An extensive simulation study compares the integrated mean square error of the discrete and kernel estimators. The robustness of the discrete estimator is demonstrated graphically.

Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paielli, Russell A.; Erzberger, Heinz

1996-01-01

The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. A method is developed in this paper to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and Monte Carlo validation are presented.

Memorabeatlia: a naturalistic study of long-term memory.

PubMed

Hyman, I E; Rubin, D C

1990-03-01

Seventy-six undergraduates were given the titles and first lines of Beatles' songs and asked to recall the songs. Seven hundred and four different undergraduates were cued with one line from each of 25 Beatles' songs and asked to recall the title. The probability of recalling a line was best predicted by the number of times a line was repeated in the song and how early the line first appeared in the song. The probability of cuing to the title was best predicted by whether the line shared words with the title. Although the subjects recalled only 21% of the lines, there were very few errors in recall, and the errors rarely violated the rhythmic, poetic, or thematic constraints of the songs. Acting together, these constraints can account for the near verbatim recall observed. Fourteen subjects, who transcribed one song, made fewer and different errors than the subjects who had recalled the song, indicating that the errors in recall were not primarily the result of errors in encoding.

Automated segmentation of neuroanatomical structures in multispectral MR microscopy of the mouse brain.

PubMed

Ali, Anjum A; Dale, Anders M; Badea, Alexandra; Johnson, G Allan

2005-08-15

We present the automated segmentation of magnetic resonance microscopy (MRM) images of the C57BL/6J mouse brain into 21 neuroanatomical structures, including the ventricular system, corpus callosum, hippocampus, caudate putamen, inferior colliculus, internal capsule, globus pallidus, and substantia nigra. The segmentation algorithm operates on multispectral, three-dimensional (3D) MR data acquired at 90-microm isotropic resolution. Probabilistic information used in the segmentation is extracted from training datasets of T2-weighted, proton density-weighted, and diffusion-weighted acquisitions. Spatial information is employed in the form of prior probabilities of occurrence of a structure at a location (location priors) and the pairwise probabilities between structures (contextual priors). Validation using standard morphometry indices shows good consistency between automatically segmented and manually traced data. Results achieved in the mouse brain are comparable with those achieved in human brain studies using similar techniques. The segmentation algorithm shows excellent potential for routine morphological phenotyping of mouse models.

Cluster mislocation in kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calafut, Victoria Rose; Bean, Rachel; Yu, Byeonghee

2018-01-01

We investigate the impact of a variety of analysis assumptions that influence cluster identification and location on the kSZ pairwise momentum signal and covariance estimation. Photometric and spectroscopic galaxy tracers from SDSS, WISE, and DECaLs, spanning redshifts 0.05

A method to improve the accuracy of pair-wise combinations of anthropometric elements when only limited data are available.

PubMed

Albin, Thomas J

2013-01-01

Designers and ergonomists occasionally must produce anthropometric models of workstations with only summary percentile data available regarding the intended users. Until now the only option available was adding or subtracting percentiles of the anthropometric elements, e.g. heights and widths, used in the model, despite the known resultant errors in the estimate of the percent of users accommodated. This paper introduces a new method, the Median Correlation Method (MCM) that reduces the error. Compare the relative accuracy of MCM to combining percentiles for anthropometric models comprised of all possible pairs of five anthropometric elements. Describe the mathematical basis of the greater accuracy of MCM. MCM is described. 95th percentile accommodation percentiles are calculated for the sums and differences of all combinations of five anthropometric elements by combining percentiles and using MCM. The resulting estimates are compared with empirical values of the 95th percentiles, and the relative errors are reported. The MCM method is shown to be significantly more accurate than adding percentiles. MCM is demonstrated to have a mathematical advantage estimating accommodation relative to adding or subtracting percentiles. The MCM method should be used in preference to adding or subtracting percentiles when limited data prevent more sophisticated anthropometric models.

Electrostatically Embedded Many-Body Approximation for Systems of Water, Ammonia, and Sulfuric Acid and the Dependence of Its Performance on Embedding Charges.

PubMed

Leverentz, Hannah R; Truhlar, Donald G

2009-06-09

This work tests the capability of the electrostatically embedded many-body (EE-MB) method to calculate accurate (relative to conventional calculations carried out at the same level of electronic structure theory and with the same basis set) binding energies of mixed clusters (as large as 9-mers) consisting of water, ammonia, sulfuric acid, and ammonium and bisulfate ions. This work also investigates the dependence of the accuracy of the EE-MB approximation on the type and origin of the charges used for electrostatically embedding these clusters. The conclusions reached are that for all of the clusters and sets of embedding charges studied in this work, the electrostatically embedded three-body (EE-3B) approximation is capable of consistently yielding relative errors of less than 1% and an average relative absolute error of only 0.3%, and that the performance of the EE-MB approximation does not depend strongly on the specific set of embedding charges used. The electrostatically embedded pairwise approximation has errors about an order of magnitude larger than EE-3B. This study also explores the question of why the accuracy of the EE-MB approximation shows such little dependence on the types of embedding charges employed.

Pairwise-Comparison Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Wendell R.

1995-01-01

Pairwise comparison (PWC) is computer program that collects data for psychometric scaling techniques now used in cognitive research. It applies technique of pairwise comparisons, which is one of many techniques commonly used to acquire the data necessary for analyses. PWC administers task, collects data from test subject, and formats data for analysis. Written in Turbo Pascal v6.0.

Optimizer convergence and local minima errors and their clinical importance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeraj, Robert; Wu, Chuan; Mackie, Thomas R.

2003-09-01

Two of the errors common in the inverse treatment planning optimization have been investigated. The first error is the optimizer convergence error, which appears because of non-perfect convergence to the global or local solution, usually caused by a non-zero stopping criterion. The second error is the local minima error, which occurs when the objective function is not convex and/or the feasible solution space is not convex. The magnitude of the errors, their relative importance in comparison to other errors as well as their clinical significance in terms of tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were investigated. Two inherently different optimizers, a stochastic simulated annealing and deterministic gradient method were compared on a clinical example. It was found that for typical optimization the optimizer convergence errors are rather small, especially compared to other convergence errors, e.g., convergence errors due to inaccuracy of the current dose calculation algorithms. This indicates that stopping criteria could often be relaxed leading into optimization speed-ups. The local minima errors were also found to be relatively small and typically in the range of the dose calculation convergence errors. Even for the cases where significantly higher objective function scores were obtained the local minima errors were not significantly higher. Clinical evaluation of the optimizer convergence error showed good correlation between the convergence of the clinical TCP or NTCP measures and convergence of the physical dose distribution. On the other hand, the local minima errors resulted in significantly different TCP or NTCP values (up to a factor of 2) indicating clinical importance of the local minima produced by physical optimization.

Optimizer convergence and local minima errors and their clinical importance.

PubMed

Jeraj, Robert; Wu, Chuan; Mackie, Thomas R

2003-09-07

Two of the errors common in the inverse treatment planning optimization have been investigated. The first error is the optimizer convergence error, which appears because of non-perfect convergence to the global or local solution, usually caused by a non-zero stopping criterion. The second error is the local minima error, which occurs when the objective function is not convex and/or the feasible solution space is not convex. The magnitude of the errors, their relative importance in comparison to other errors as well as their clinical significance in terms of tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) were investigated. Two inherently different optimizers, a stochastic simulated annealing and deterministic gradient method were compared on a clinical example. It was found that for typical optimization the optimizer convergence errors are rather small, especially compared to other convergence errors, e.g., convergence errors due to inaccuracy of the current dose calculation algorithms. This indicates that stopping criteria could often be relaxed leading into optimization speed-ups. The local minima errors were also found to be relatively small and typically in the range of the dose calculation convergence errors. Even for the cases where significantly higher objective function scores were obtained the local minima errors were not significantly higher. Clinical evaluation of the optimizer convergence error showed good correlation between the convergence of the clinical TCP or NTCP measures and convergence of the physical dose distribution. On the other hand, the local minima errors resulted in significantly different TCP or NTCP values (up to a factor of 2) indicating clinical importance of the local minima produced by physical optimization.

Fusion of Scores in a Detection Context Based on Alpha Integration.

PubMed

Soriano, Antonio; Vergara, Luis; Ahmed, Bouziane; Salazar, Addisson

2015-09-01

We present a new method for fusing scores corresponding to different detectors (two-hypotheses case). It is based on alpha integration, which we have adapted to the detection context. Three optimization methods are presented: least mean square error, maximization of the area under the ROC curve, and minimization of the probability of error. Gradient algorithms are proposed for the three methods. Different experiments with simulated and real data are included. Simulated data consider the two-detector case to illustrate the factors influencing alpha integration and demonstrate the improvements obtained by score fusion with respect to individual detector performance. Two real data cases have been considered. In the first, multimodal biometric data have been processed. This case is representative of scenarios in which the probability of detection is to be maximized for a given probability of false alarm. The second case is the automatic analysis of electroencephalogram and electrocardiogram records with the aim of reproducing the medical expert detections of arousal during sleeping. This case is representative of scenarios in which probability of error is to be minimized. The general superior performance of alpha integration verifies the interest of optimizing the fusing parameters.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C.

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C., E-mail: g.aslanyan@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: lpri691@aucklanduni.ac.nz

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitlymore » describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.« less

Noise Estimation and Adaptive Encoding for Asymmetric Quantum Error Correcting Codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Florjanczyk, Jan; Brun, Todd; CenterQuantum Information Science; Technology Team

We present a technique that improves the performance of asymmetric quantum error correcting codes in the presence of biased qubit noise channels. Our study is motivated by considering what useful information can be learned from the statistics of syndrome measurements in stabilizer quantum error correcting codes (QECC). We consider the case of a qubit dephasing channel where the dephasing axis is unknown and time-varying. We are able to estimate the dephasing angle from the statistics of the standard syndrome measurements used in stabilizer QECC's. We use this estimate to rotate the computational basis of the code in such a way that the most likely type of error is covered by the highest distance of the asymmetric code. In particular, we use the [ [ 15 , 1 , 3 ] ] shortened Reed-Muller code which can correct one phase-flip error but up to three bit-flip errors. In our simulations, we tune the computational basis to match the estimated dephasing axis which in turn leads to a decrease in the probability of a phase-flip error. With a sufficiently accurate estimate of the dephasing axis, our memory's effective error is dominated by the much lower probability of four bit-flips. Aro MURI Grant No. W911NF-11-1-0268.

An all digital phase locked loop for synchronization of a sinusoidal signal embedded in white Gaussian noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, C. P.; Gupta, S. C.

1973-01-01

An all digital phase locked loop which tracks the phase of the incoming sinusoidal signal once per carrier cycle is proposed. The different elements and their functions and the phase lock operation are explained in detail. The nonlinear difference equations which govern the operation of the digital loop when the incoming signal is embedded in white Gaussian noise are derived, and a suitable model is specified. The performance of the digital loop is considered for the synchronization of a sinusoidal signal. For this, the noise term is suitably modelled which allows specification of the output probabilities for the two level quantizer in the loop at any given phase error. The loop filter considered increases the probability of proper phase correction. The phase error states in modulo two-pi forms a finite state Markov chain which enables the calculation of steady state probabilities, RMS phase error, transient response and mean time for cycle skipping.

Inference of emission rates from multiple sources using Bayesian probability theory.

PubMed

Yee, Eugene; Flesch, Thomas K

2010-03-01

The determination of atmospheric emission rates from multiple sources using inversion (regularized least-squares or best-fit technique) is known to be very susceptible to measurement and model errors in the problem, rendering the solution unusable. In this paper, a new perspective is offered for this problem: namely, it is argued that the problem should be addressed as one of inference rather than inversion. Towards this objective, Bayesian probability theory is used to estimate the emission rates from multiple sources. The posterior probability distribution for the emission rates is derived, accounting fully for the measurement errors in the concentration data and the model errors in the dispersion model used to interpret the data. The Bayesian inferential methodology for emission rate recovery is validated against real dispersion data, obtained from a field experiment involving various source-sensor geometries (scenarios) consisting of four synthetic area sources and eight concentration sensors. The recovery of discrete emission rates from three different scenarios obtained using Bayesian inference and singular value decomposition inversion are compared and contrasted.

Radar detection with the Neyman-Pearson criterion using supervised-learning-machines trained with the cross-entropy error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarabo-Amores, María-Pilar; la Mata-Moya, David de; Gil-Pita, Roberto; Rosa-Zurera, Manuel

2013-12-01

The application of supervised learning machines trained to minimize the Cross-Entropy error to radar detection is explored in this article. The detector is implemented with a learning machine that implements a discriminant function, which output is compared to a threshold selected to fix a desired probability of false alarm. The study is based on the calculation of the function the learning machine approximates to during training, and the application of a sufficient condition for a discriminant function to be used to approximate the optimum Neyman-Pearson (NP) detector. In this article, the function a supervised learning machine approximates to after being trained to minimize the Cross-Entropy error is obtained. This discriminant function can be used to implement the NP detector, which maximizes the probability of detection, maintaining the probability of false alarm below or equal to a predefined value. Some experiments about signal detection using neural networks are also presented to test the validity of the study.

A multistate dynamic site occupancy model for spatially aggregated sessile communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fukaya, Keiichi; Royle, J. Andrew; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2017-01-01

Estimation of transition probabilities of sessile communities seems easy in principle but may still be difficult in practice because resampling error (i.e. a failure to resample exactly the same location at fixed points) may cause significant estimation bias. Previous studies have developed novel analytical methods to correct for this estimation bias. However, they did not consider the local structure of community composition induced by the aggregated distribution of organisms that is typically observed in sessile assemblages and is very likely to affect observations.We developed a multistate dynamic site occupancy model to estimate transition probabilities that accounts for resampling errors associated with local community structure. The model applies a nonparametric multivariate kernel smoothing methodology to the latent occupancy component to estimate the local state composition near each observation point, which is assumed to determine the probability distribution of data conditional on the occurrence of resampling error.By using computer simulations, we confirmed that an observation process that depends on local community structure may bias inferences about transition probabilities. By applying the proposed model to a real data set of intertidal sessile communities, we also showed that estimates of transition probabilities and of the properties of community dynamics may differ considerably when spatial dependence is taken into account.Results suggest the importance of accounting for resampling error and local community structure for developing management plans that are based on Markovian models. Our approach provides a solution to this problem that is applicable to broad sessile communities. It can even accommodate an anisotropic spatial correlation of species composition, and may also serve as a basis for inferring complex nonlinear ecological dynamics.

Maximizing the probability of satisfying the clinical goals in radiation therapy treatment planning under setup uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fredriksson, Albin, E-mail: albin.fredriksson@raysearchlabs.com; Hårdemark, Björn; Forsgren, Anders

2015-07-15

Purpose: This paper introduces a method that maximizes the probability of satisfying the clinical goals in intensity-modulated radiation therapy treatments subject to setup uncertainty. Methods: The authors perform robust optimization in which the clinical goals are constrained to be satisfied whenever the setup error falls within an uncertainty set. The shape of the uncertainty set is included as a variable in the optimization. The goal of the optimization is to modify the shape of the uncertainty set in order to maximize the probability that the setup error will fall within the modified set. Because the constraints enforce the clinical goalsmore » to be satisfied under all setup errors within the uncertainty set, this is equivalent to maximizing the probability of satisfying the clinical goals. This type of robust optimization is studied with respect to photon and proton therapy applied to a prostate case and compared to robust optimization using an a priori defined uncertainty set. Results: Slight reductions of the uncertainty sets resulted in plans that satisfied a larger number of clinical goals than optimization with respect to a priori defined uncertainty sets, both within the reduced uncertainty sets and within the a priori, nonreduced, uncertainty sets. For the prostate case, the plans taking reduced uncertainty sets into account satisfied 1.4 (photons) and 1.5 (protons) times as many clinical goals over the scenarios as the method taking a priori uncertainty sets into account. Conclusions: Reducing the uncertainty sets enabled the optimization to find better solutions with respect to the errors within the reduced as well as the nonreduced uncertainty sets and thereby achieve higher probability of satisfying the clinical goals. This shows that asking for a little less in the optimization sometimes leads to better overall plan quality.« less

Rényi information flow in the Ising model with single-spin dynamics.

PubMed

Deng, Zehui; Wu, Jinshan; Guo, Wenan

2014-12-01

The n-index Rényi mutual information and transfer entropies for the two-dimensional kinetic Ising model with arbitrary single-spin dynamics in the thermodynamic limit are derived as functions of ensemble averages of observables and spin-flip probabilities. Cluster Monte Carlo algorithms with different dynamics from the single-spin dynamics are thus applicable to estimate the transfer entropies. By means of Monte Carlo simulations with the Wolff algorithm, we calculate the information flows in the Ising model with the Metropolis dynamics and the Glauber dynamics, respectively. We find that not only the global Rényi transfer entropy, but also the pairwise Rényi transfer entropy, peaks in the disorder phase.

On the Determinants of the Conjunction Fallacy: Probability versus Inductive Confirmation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-01-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such…

Asteroid orbital error analysis: Theory and application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muinonen, K.; Bowell, Edward

1992-01-01

We present a rigorous Bayesian theory for asteroid orbital error estimation in which the probability density of the orbital elements is derived from the noise statistics of the observations. For Gaussian noise in a linearized approximation the probability density is also Gaussian, and the errors of the orbital elements at a given epoch are fully described by the covariance matrix. The law of error propagation can then be applied to calculate past and future positional uncertainty ellipsoids (Cappellari et al. 1976, Yeomans et al. 1987, Whipple et al. 1991). To our knowledge, this is the first time a Bayesian approach has been formulated for orbital element estimation. In contrast to the classical Fisherian school of statistics, the Bayesian school allows a priori information to be formally present in the final estimation. However, Bayesian estimation does give the same results as Fisherian estimation when no priori information is assumed (Lehtinen 1988, and reference therein).

A Method to Estimate the Probability That Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke Was Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2010-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simonen, E.P.; Johnson, K.I.; Simonen, F.A.

The Vessel Integrity Simulation Analysis (VISA-II) code was developed to allow calculations of the failure probability of a reactor pressure vessel subject to defined pressure/temperature transients. A version of the code, revised by Pacific Northwest Laboratory for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was used to evaluate the sensitivities of calculated through-wall flaw probability to material, flaw and calculational assumptions. Probabilities were more sensitive to flaw assumptions than to material or calculational assumptions. Alternative flaw assumptions changed the probabilities by one to two orders of magnitude, whereas alternative material assumptions typically changed the probabilities by a factor of two or less.more » Flaw shape, flaw through-wall position and flaw inspection were sensitivities examined. Material property sensitivities included the assumed distributions in copper content and fracture toughness. Methods of modeling flaw propagation that were evaluated included arrest/reinitiation toughness correlations, multiple toughness values along the length of a flaw, flaw jump distance for each computer simulation and added error in estimating irradiated properties caused by the trend curve correlation error.« less

Retention time alignment of LC/MS data by a divide-and-conquer algorithm.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongqi

2012-04-01

Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC/MS) has become the method of choice for characterizing complex mixtures. These analyses often involve quantitative comparison of components in multiple samples. To achieve automated sample comparison, the components of interest must be detected and identified, and their retention times aligned and peak areas calculated. This article describes a simple pairwise iterative retention time alignment algorithm, based on the divide-and-conquer approach, for alignment of ion features detected in LC/MS experiments. In this iterative algorithm, ion features in the sample run are first aligned with features in the reference run by applying a single constant shift of retention time. The sample chromatogram is then divided into two shorter chromatograms, which are aligned to the reference chromatogram the same way. Each shorter chromatogram is further divided into even shorter chromatograms. This process continues until each chromatogram is sufficiently narrow so that ion features within it have a similar retention time shift. In six pairwise LC/MS alignment examples containing a total of 6507 confirmed true corresponding feature pairs with retention time shifts up to five peak widths, the algorithm successfully aligned these features with an error rate of 0.2%. The alignment algorithm is demonstrated to be fast, robust, fully automatic, and superior to other algorithms. After alignment and gap-filling of detected ion features, their abundances can be tabulated for direct comparison between samples.

Allowing for uncertainty due to missing continuous outcome data in pairwise and network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; White, Ian R; Higgins, Julian P T; Cipriani, Andrea; Salanti, Georgia

2015-02-28

Missing outcome data are commonly encountered in randomized controlled trials and hence may need to be addressed in a meta-analysis of multiple trials. A common and simple approach to deal with missing data is to restrict analysis to individuals for whom the outcome was obtained (complete case analysis). However, estimated treatment effects from complete case analyses are potentially biased if informative missing data are ignored. We develop methods for estimating meta-analytic summary treatment effects for continuous outcomes in the presence of missing data for some of the individuals within the trials. We build on a method previously developed for binary outcomes, which quantifies the degree of departure from a missing at random assumption via the informative missingness odds ratio. Our new model quantifies the degree of departure from missing at random using either an informative missingness difference of means or an informative missingness ratio of means, both of which relate the mean value of the missing outcome data to that of the observed data. We propose estimating the treatment effects, adjusted for informative missingness, and their standard errors by a Taylor series approximation and by a Monte Carlo method. We apply the methodology to examples of both pairwise and network meta-analysis with multi-arm trials. © 2014 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dispersion- and Exchange-Corrected Density Functional Theory for Sodium Ion Hydration.

PubMed

Soniat, Marielle; Rogers, David M; Rempe, Susan B

2015-07-14

A challenge in density functional theory is developing functionals that simultaneously describe intermolecular electron correlation and electron delocalization. Recent exchange-correlation functionals address those two issues by adding corrections important at long ranges: an atom-centered pairwise dispersion term to account for correlation and a modified long-range component of the electron exchange term to correct for delocalization. Here we investigate how those corrections influence the accuracy of binding free energy predictions for sodium-water clusters. We find that the dual-corrected ωB97X-D functional gives cluster binding energies closest to high-level ab initio methods (CCSD(T)). Binding energy decomposition shows that the ωB97X-D functional predicts the smallest ion-water (pairwise) interaction energy and larger multibody contributions for a four-water cluster than most other functionals - a trend consistent with CCSD(T) results. Also, ωB97X-D produces the smallest amounts of charge transfer and the least polarizable waters of the density functionals studied, which mimics the lower polarizability of CCSD. When compared with experimental binding free energies, however, the exchange-corrected CAM-B3LYP functional performs best (error <1 kcal/mol), possibly because of its parametrization to experimental formation enthalpies. For clusters containing more than four waters, "split-shell" coordination must be considered to obtain accurate free energies in comparison with experiment.

Error Patterns in Ordering Fractions among At-Risk Fourth-Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Amelia S.; Fuchs, Lynn S.

2017-01-01

The three purposes of this study were to (a) describe fraction ordering errors among at-risk fourth grade students, (b) assess the effect of part-whole understanding and accuracy of fraction magnitude estimation on the probability of committing errors, and (c) examine the effect of students' ability to explain comparing problems on the probability…

Cluster mislocation in kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calafut, Victoria; Bean, Rachel; Yu, Byeonghee

2017-12-01

We investigate the impact of a variety of analysis assumptions that influence cluster identification and location on the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) pairwise momentum signal and covariance estimation. Photometric and spectroscopic galaxy tracers from SDSS, WISE, and DECaLs, spanning redshifts 0.05

An activity canyon characterization of the pharmacological topography.

PubMed

Kulkarni, Varsha S; Wild, David J

2016-01-01

Highly chemically similar drugs usually possess similar biological activities, but sometimes, small changes in chemistry can result in a large difference in biological effects. Chemically similar drug pairs that show extreme deviations in activity represent distinctive drug interactions having important implications. These associations between chemical and biological similarity are studied as discontinuities in activity landscapes. Particularly, activity cliffs are quantified by the drop in similar activity of chemically similar drugs. In this paper, we construct a landscape using a large drug-target network and consider the rises in similarity and variation in activity along the chemical space. Detailed analysis of structure and activity gives a rigorous quantification of distinctive pairs and the probability of their occurrence. We analyze pairwise similarity (s) and variation (d) in activity of drugs on proteins. Interactions between drugs are quantified by considering pairwise s and d weights jointly with corresponding chemical similarity (c) weights. Similarity and variation in activity are measured as the number of common and uncommon targets of two drugs respectively. Distinctive interactions occur between drugs having high c and above (below) average d (s). Computation of predicted probability of distinctiveness employs joint probability of c, s and of c, d assuming independence of structure and activity. Predictions conform with the observations at different levels of distinctiveness. Results are validated on the data used and another drug ensemble. In the landscape, while s and d decrease as c increases, d maintains value more than s. c ∈ [0.3, 0.64] is the transitional region where rises in d are significantly greater than drops in s. It is fascinating that distinctive interactions filtered with high d and low s are different in nature. It is crucial that high c interactions are more probable of having above average d than s. Identification of distinctive interactions is better with high d than low s. These interactions belong to diverse classes. d is greatest between drugs and analogs prepared for treatment of same class of ailments but with different therapeutic specifications. In contrast, analogs having low s would treat ailments from distinct classes. Intermittent spikes in d along the axis of c represent canyons in the activity landscape. This new representation accounts for distinctiveness through relative rises in s and d. It provides a mathematical basis for predicting the probability of occurrence of distinctiveness. It identifies the drug pairs at varying levels of distinctiveness and non-distinctiveness. The predicted probability formula is validated even if data approximately satisfy the conditions of its construction. Also, the postulated independence of structure and activity is of little significance to the overall assessment. The difference in distinctive interactions obtained by s and d highlights the importance of studying both of them, and reveals how the choice of measurement can affect the interpretation. The methods in this paper can be used to interpret whether or not drug interactions are distinctive and the probability of their occurrence. Practitioners and researchers can rely on this identification for quantitative modeling and assessment.

Optimal design of minimum mean-square error noise reduction algorithms using the simulated annealing technique.

PubMed

Bai, Mingsian R; Hsieh, Ping-Ju; Hur, Kur-Nan

2009-02-01

The performance of the minimum mean-square error noise reduction (MMSE-NR) algorithm in conjunction with time-recursive averaging (TRA) for noise estimation is found to be very sensitive to the choice of two recursion parameters. To address this problem in a more systematic manner, this paper proposes an optimization method to efficiently search the optimal parameters of the MMSE-TRA-NR algorithms. The objective function is based on a regression model, whereas the optimization process is carried out with the simulated annealing algorithm that is well suited for problems with many local optima. Another NR algorithm proposed in the paper employs linear prediction coding as a preprocessor for extracting the correlated portion of human speech. Objective and subjective tests were undertaken to compare the optimized MMSE-TRA-NR algorithm with several conventional NR algorithms. The results of subjective tests were processed by using analysis of variance to justify the statistic significance. A post hoc test, Tukey's Honestly Significant Difference, was conducted to further assess the pairwise difference between the NR algorithms.

On the role of cost-sensitive learning in multi-class brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Devlaminck, Dieter; Waegeman, Willem; Wyns, Bart; Otte, Georges; Santens, Patrick

2010-06-01

Brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) present an alternative way of communication for people with severe disabilities. One of the shortcomings in current BCI systems, recently put forward in the fourth BCI competition, is the asynchronous detection of motor imagery versus resting state. We investigated this extension to the three-class case, in which the resting state is considered virtually lying between two motor classes, resulting in a large penalty when one motor task is misclassified into the other motor class. We particularly focus on the behavior of different machine-learning techniques and on the role of multi-class cost-sensitive learning in such a context. To this end, four different kernel methods are empirically compared, namely pairwise multi-class support vector machines (SVMs), two cost-sensitive multi-class SVMs and kernel-based ordinal regression. The experimental results illustrate that ordinal regression performs better than the other three approaches when a cost-sensitive performance measure such as the mean-squared error is considered. By contrast, multi-class cost-sensitive learning enables us to control the number of large errors made between two motor tasks.

Multivariate Welch t-test on distances

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Motivation: Permutational non-Euclidean analysis of variance, PERMANOVA, is routinely used in exploratory analysis of multivariate datasets to draw conclusions about the significance of patterns visualized through dimension reduction. This method recognizes that pairwise distance matrix between observations is sufficient to compute within and between group sums of squares necessary to form the (pseudo) F statistic. Moreover, not only Euclidean, but arbitrary distances can be used. This method, however, suffers from loss of power and type I error inflation in the presence of heteroscedasticity and sample size imbalances. Results: We develop a solution in the form of a distance-based Welch t-test, TW2, for two sample potentially unbalanced and heteroscedastic data. We demonstrate empirically the desirable type I error and power characteristics of the new test. We compare the performance of PERMANOVA and TW2 in reanalysis of two existing microbiome datasets, where the methodology has originated. Availability and Implementation: The source code for methods and analysis of this article is available at https://github.com/alekseyenko/Tw2. Further guidance on application of these methods can be obtained from the author. Contact: alekseye@musc.edu PMID:27515741

Multivariate Welch t-test on distances.

PubMed

Alekseyenko, Alexander V

2016-12-01

Permutational non-Euclidean analysis of variance, PERMANOVA, is routinely used in exploratory analysis of multivariate datasets to draw conclusions about the significance of patterns visualized through dimension reduction. This method recognizes that pairwise distance matrix between observations is sufficient to compute within and between group sums of squares necessary to form the (pseudo) F statistic. Moreover, not only Euclidean, but arbitrary distances can be used. This method, however, suffers from loss of power and type I error inflation in the presence of heteroscedasticity and sample size imbalances. We develop a solution in the form of a distance-based Welch t-test, [Formula: see text], for two sample potentially unbalanced and heteroscedastic data. We demonstrate empirically the desirable type I error and power characteristics of the new test. We compare the performance of PERMANOVA and [Formula: see text] in reanalysis of two existing microbiome datasets, where the methodology has originated. The source code for methods and analysis of this article is available at https://github.com/alekseyenko/Tw2 Further guidance on application of these methods can be obtained from the author. alekseye@musc.edu. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Learning time-dependent noise to reduce logical errors: real time error rate estimation in quantum error correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Ming-Xia; Li, Ying

2017-12-01

Quantum error correction is important to quantum information processing, which allows us to reliably process information encoded in quantum error correction codes. Efficient quantum error correction benefits from the knowledge of error rates. We propose a protocol for monitoring error rates in real time without interrupting the quantum error correction. Any adaptation of the quantum error correction code or its implementation circuit is not required. The protocol can be directly applied to the most advanced quantum error correction techniques, e.g. surface code. A Gaussian processes algorithm is used to estimate and predict error rates based on error correction data in the past. We find that using these estimated error rates, the probability of error correction failures can be significantly reduced by a factor increasing with the code distance.

Differential Item Functioning Detection across Two Methods of Defining Group Comparisons: Pairwise and Composite Group Comparisons

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sari, Halil Ibrahim; Huggins, Anne Corinne

2015-01-01

This study compares two methods of defining groups for the detection of differential item functioning (DIF): (a) pairwise comparisons and (b) composite group comparisons. We aim to emphasize and empirically support the notion that the choice of pairwise versus composite group definitions in DIF is a reflection of how one defines fairness in DIF…

Threshold detection in an on-off binary communications channel with atmospheric scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, W. E.; Marino, J. T., Jr.

1974-01-01

The optimum detection threshold in an on-off binary optical communications system operating in the presence of atmospheric turbulence was investigated assuming a poisson detection process and log normal scintillation. The dependence of the probability of bit error on log amplitude variance and received signal strength was analyzed and semi-emperical relationships to predict the optimum detection threshold derived. On the basis of this analysis a piecewise linear model for an adaptive threshold detection system is presented. Bit error probabilities for non-optimum threshold detection system were also investigated.

Threshold detection in an on-off binary communications channel with atmospheric scintillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, W. E.

1975-01-01

The optimum detection threshold in an on-off binary optical communications system operating in the presence of atmospheric turbulence was investigated assuming a poisson detection process and log normal scintillation. The dependence of the probability of bit error on log amplitude variance and received signal strength was analyzed and semi-empirical relationships to predict the optimum detection threshold derived. On the basis of this analysis a piecewise linear model for an adaptive threshold detection system is presented. The bit error probabilities for nonoptimum threshold detection systems were also investigated.

Objective Analysis of Oceanic Data for Coast Guard Trajectory Models Phase II

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-01

as outliers depends on the desired probability of false alarm, Pfa values, which is the probability of marking a valid point as an outlier. Table 2-2...constructed to minimize the mean-squared prediction error of the grid point estimate under the constraint that the estimate is unbiased . The...prediction error, e= Zl(S) _oizl(Si)+oC1iZz(S) (2.44) subject to the constraints of unbiasedness , • c/1 = 1,and (2.45) i SCC12 = 0. (2.46) Denoting

Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA.

PubMed

Kelly, Brendan J; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D; Collman, Ronald G; Bushman, Frederic D; Li, Hongzhe

2015-08-01

The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence-absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.

1986-01-01

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Position Error Covariance Matrix Validation and Correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joe, Jr.

2016-01-01

In order to calculate operationally accurate collision probabilities, the position error covariance matrices predicted at times of closest approach must be sufficiently accurate representations of the position uncertainties. This presentation will discuss why the Gaussian distribution is a reasonable expectation for the position uncertainty and how this assumed distribution type is used in the validation and correction of position error covariance matrices.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morley, Steven

The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient ofmore » variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.« less

Correlative feature analysis on FFDM

PubMed Central

Yuan, Yading; Giger, Maryellen L.; Li, Hui; Sennett, Charlene

2008-01-01

Identifying the corresponding images of a lesion in different views is an essential step in improving the diagnostic ability of both radiologists and computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems. Because of the nonrigidity of the breasts and the 2D projective property of mammograms, this task is not trivial. In this pilot study, we present a computerized framework that differentiates between corresponding images of the same lesion in different views and noncorresponding images, i.e., images of different lesions. A dual-stage segmentation method, which employs an initial radial gradient index (RGI) based segmentation and an active contour model, is applied to extract mass lesions from the surrounding parenchyma. Then various lesion features are automatically extracted from each of the two views of each lesion to quantify the characteristics of density, size, texture and the neighborhood of the lesion, as well as its distance to the nipple. A two-step scheme is employed to estimate the probability that the two lesion images from different mammographic views are of the same physical lesion. In the first step, a correspondence metric for each pairwise feature is estimated by a Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN). Then, these pairwise correspondence metrics are combined using another BANN to yield an overall probability of correspondence. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to evaluate the performance of the individual features and the selected feature subset in the task of distinguishing corresponding pairs from noncorresponding pairs. Using a FFDM database with 123 corresponding image pairs and 82 noncorresponding pairs, the distance feature yielded an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.81±0.02 with leave-one-out (by physical lesion) evaluation, and the feature metric subset, which included distance, gradient texture, and ROI-based correlation, yielded an AUC of 0.87±0.02. The improvement by using multiple feature metrics was statistically significant compared to single feature performance. PMID:19175108

Modeling the probability distribution of positional errors incurred by residential address geocoding.

PubMed

Zimmerman, Dale L; Fang, Xiangming; Mazumdar, Soumya; Rushton, Gerard

2007-01-10

The assignment of a point-level geocode to subjects' residences is an important data assimilation component of many geographic public health studies. Often, these assignments are made by a method known as automated geocoding, which attempts to match each subject's address to an address-ranged street segment georeferenced within a streetline database and then interpolate the position of the address along that segment. Unfortunately, this process results in positional errors. Our study sought to model the probability distribution of positional errors associated with automated geocoding and E911 geocoding. Positional errors were determined for 1423 rural addresses in Carroll County, Iowa as the vector difference between each 100%-matched automated geocode and its true location as determined by orthophoto and parcel information. Errors were also determined for 1449 60%-matched geocodes and 2354 E911 geocodes. Huge (> 15 km) outliers occurred among the 60%-matched geocoding errors; outliers occurred for the other two types of geocoding errors also but were much smaller. E911 geocoding was more accurate (median error length = 44 m) than 100%-matched automated geocoding (median error length = 168 m). The empirical distributions of positional errors associated with 100%-matched automated geocoding and E911 geocoding exhibited a distinctive Greek-cross shape and had many other interesting features that were not capable of being fitted adequately by a single bivariate normal or t distribution. However, mixtures of t distributions with two or three components fit the errors very well. Mixtures of bivariate t distributions with few components appear to be flexible enough to fit many positional error datasets associated with geocoding, yet parsimonious enough to be feasible for nascent applications of measurement-error methodology to spatial epidemiology.

An Error-Entropy Minimization Algorithm for Tracking Control of Nonlinear Stochastic Systems with Non-Gaussian Variables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yunlong; Wang, Aiping; Guo, Lei

This paper presents an error-entropy minimization tracking control algorithm for a class of dynamic stochastic system. The system is represented by a set of time-varying discrete nonlinear equations with non-Gaussian stochastic input, where the statistical properties of stochastic input are unknown. By using Parzen windowing with Gaussian kernel to estimate the probability densities of errors, recursive algorithms are then proposed to design the controller such that the tracking error can be minimized. The performance of the error-entropy minimization criterion is compared with the mean-square-error minimization in the simulation results.

Impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the performance of a relay-assisted free-space optical communication system over exponentiated Weibull fading channels.

PubMed

Wang, Ping; Liu, Xiaoxia; Cao, Tian; Fu, Huihua; Wang, Ranran; Guo, Lixin

2016-09-20

The impact of nonzero boresight pointing errors on the system performance of decode-and-forward protocol-based multihop parallel optical wireless communication systems is studied. For the aggregated fading channel, the atmospheric turbulence is simulated by an exponentiated Weibull model, and pointing errors are described by one recently proposed statistical model including both boresight and jitter. The binary phase-shift keying subcarrier intensity modulation-based analytical average bit error rate (ABER) and outage probability expressions are achieved for a nonidentically and independently distributed system. The ABER and outage probability are then analyzed with different turbulence strengths, receiving aperture sizes, structure parameters (P and Q), jitter variances, and boresight displacements. The results show that aperture averaging offers almost the same system performance improvement with boresight included or not, despite the values of P and Q. The performance enhancement owing to the increase of cooperative path (P) is more evident with nonzero boresight than that with zero boresight (jitter only), whereas the performance deterioration because of the increasing hops (Q) with nonzero boresight is almost the same as that with zero boresight. Monte Carlo simulation is offered to verify the validity of ABER and outage probability expressions.

Genetic Algorithm-Based Motion Estimation Method using Orientations and EMGs for Robot Controls

PubMed Central

Chae, Jeongsook; Jin, Yong; Sung, Yunsick

2018-01-01

Demand for interactive wearable devices is rapidly increasing with the development of smart devices. To accurately utilize wearable devices for remote robot controls, limited data should be analyzed and utilized efficiently. For example, the motions by a wearable device, called Myo device, can be estimated by measuring its orientation, and calculating a Bayesian probability based on these orientation data. Given that Myo device can measure various types of data, the accuracy of its motion estimation can be increased by utilizing these additional types of data. This paper proposes a motion estimation method based on weighted Bayesian probability and concurrently measured data, orientations and electromyograms (EMG). The most probable motion among estimated is treated as a final estimated motion. Thus, recognition accuracy can be improved when compared to the traditional methods that employ only a single type of data. In our experiments, seven subjects perform five predefined motions. When orientation is measured by the traditional methods, the sum of the motion estimation errors is 37.3%; likewise, when only EMG data are used, the error in motion estimation by the proposed method was also 37.3%. The proposed combined method has an error of 25%. Therefore, the proposed method reduces motion estimation errors by 12%. PMID:29324641

Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.

2012-01-01

Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.

Study on the Rationality and Validity of Probit Models of Domino Effect to Chemical Process Equipment caused by Overpressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Dongliang; Huang, Guangtuan; Jiang, Juncheng; Zhang, Mingguang; Wang, Zhirong

2013-04-01

Overpressure is one important cause of domino effect in accidents of chemical process equipments. Some models considering propagation probability and threshold values of the domino effect caused by overpressure have been proposed in previous study. In order to prove the rationality and validity of the models reported in the reference, two boundary values of three damage degrees reported were considered as random variables respectively in the interval [0, 100%]. Based on the overpressure data for damage to the equipment and the damage state, and the calculation method reported in the references, the mean square errors of the four categories of damage probability models of overpressure were calculated with random boundary values, and then a relationship of mean square error vs. the two boundary value was obtained, the minimum of mean square error was obtained, compared with the result of the present work, mean square error decreases by about 3%. Therefore, the error was in the acceptable range of engineering applications, the models reported can be considered reasonable and valid.

Estimating alarm thresholds and the number of components in mixture distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burr, Tom; Hamada, Michael S.

2012-09-01

Mixtures of probability distributions arise in many nuclear assay and forensic applications, including nuclear weapon detection, neutron multiplicity counting, and in solution monitoring (SM) for nuclear safeguards. SM data is increasingly used to enhance nuclear safeguards in aqueous reprocessing facilities having plutonium in solution form in many tanks. This paper provides background for mixture probability distributions and then focuses on mixtures arising in SM data. SM data can be analyzed by evaluating transfer-mode residuals defined as tank-to-tank transfer differences, and wait-mode residuals defined as changes during non-transfer modes. A previous paper investigated impacts on transfer-mode and wait-mode residuals of event marking errors which arise when the estimated start and/or stop times of tank events such as transfers are somewhat different from the true start and/or stop times. Event marking errors contribute to non-Gaussian behavior and larger variation than predicted on the basis of individual tank calibration studies. This paper illustrates evidence for mixture probability distributions arising from such event marking errors and from effects such as condensation or evaporation during non-transfer modes, and pump carryover during transfer modes. A quantitative assessment of the sample size required to adequately characterize a mixture probability distribution arising in any context is included.

Maximum entropy approach to statistical inference for an ocean acoustic waveguide.

PubMed

Knobles, D P; Sagers, J D; Koch, R A

2012-02-01

A conditional probability distribution suitable for estimating the statistical properties of ocean seabed parameter values inferred from acoustic measurements is derived from a maximum entropy principle. The specification of the expectation value for an error function constrains the maximization of an entropy functional. This constraint determines the sensitivity factor (β) to the error function of the resulting probability distribution, which is a canonical form that provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty of the parameter values. From the conditional distribution, marginal distributions for individual parameters can be determined from integration over the other parameters. The approach is an alternative to obtaining the posterior probability distribution without an intermediary determination of the likelihood function followed by an application of Bayes' rule. In this paper the expectation value that specifies the constraint is determined from the values of the error function for the model solutions obtained from a sparse number of data samples. The method is applied to ocean acoustic measurements taken on the New Jersey continental shelf. The marginal probability distribution for the values of the sound speed ratio at the surface of the seabed and the source levels of a towed source are examined for different geoacoustic model representations. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

Average BER and outage probability of the ground-to-train OWC link in turbulence with rain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yixin; Yang, Yanqiu; Hu, Beibei; Yu, Lin; Hu, Zheng-Da

2017-09-01

The bit-error rate (BER) and outage probability of optical wireless communication (OWC) link for the ground-to-train of the curved track in turbulence with rain is evaluated. Considering the re-modulation effects of raining fluctuation on optical signal modulated by turbulence, we set up the models of average BER and outage probability in the present of pointing errors, based on the double inverse Gaussian (IG) statistical distribution model. The numerical results indicate that, for the same covered track length, the larger curvature radius increases the outage probability and average BER. The performance of the OWC link in turbulence with rain is limited mainly by the rain rate and pointing errors which are induced by the beam wander and train vibration. The effect of the rain rate on the performance of the link is more severe than the atmospheric turbulence, but the fluctuation owing to the atmospheric turbulence affects the laser beam propagation more greatly than the skewness of the rain distribution. Besides, the turbulence-induced beam wander has a more significant impact on the system in heavier rain. We can choose the size of transmitting and receiving apertures and improve the shockproof performance of the tracks to optimize the communication performance of the system.

Elucidating the multiple genetic lineages and population genetic structure of the brooding coral Seriatopora (Scleractinia: Pocilloporidae) in the Ryukyu Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakajima, Yuichi; Nishikawa, Akira; Iguchi, Akira; Nagata, Tomofumi; Uyeno, Daisuke; Sakai, Kazuhiko; Mitarai, Satoshi

2017-06-01

The elucidation of species diversity and connectivity is essential for conserving coral reef communities and for understanding the characteristics of coral populations. To assess the species diversity, intraspecific genetic diversity, and genetic differentiation among populations of the brooding coral Seriatopora spp., we conducted phylogenetic and population genetic analyses using a mitochondrial DNA control region and microsatellites at ten sites in the Ryukyu Archipelago, Japan. At least three genetic lineages of Seriatopora (Seriatopora-A, -B, and -C) were detected in our specimens. We collected colonies morphologically similar to Seriatopora hystrix, but these may have included multiple, genetically distinct species. Although sexual reproduction maintains the populations of all the genetic lineages, Seriatopora-A and Seriatopora-C had lower genetic diversity than Seriatopora-B. We detected significant genetic differentiation in Seriatopora-B among the three populations as follows: pairwise F ST = 0.064-0.116 (all P = 0.001), pairwise G''ST = 0.107-0.209 (all P = 0.001). Additionally, only one migrant from an unsampled population was genetically identified within Seriatopora-B. Because the peak of the settlement of Seriatopora larvae is within 1 d and almost all larvae are settled within 5 d of spawning, our observations may be related to low dispersal ability. Populations of Seriatopora in the Ryukyu Archipelago will probably not recover unless there is substantial new recruitment from distant populations.

Identification of dynamic systems, theory and formulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

1985-01-01

The problem of estimating parameters of dynamic systems is addressed in order to present the theoretical basis of system identification and parameter estimation in a manner that is complete and rigorous, yet understandable with minimal prerequisites. Maximum likelihood and related estimators are highlighted. The approach used requires familiarity with calculus, linear algebra, and probability, but does not require knowledge of stochastic processes or functional analysis. The treatment emphasizes unification of the various areas in estimation in dynamic systems is treated as a direct outgrowth of the static system theory. Topics covered include basic concepts and definitions; numerical optimization methods; probability; statistical estimators; estimation in static systems; stochastic processes; state estimation in dynamic systems; output error, filter error, and equation error methods of parameter estimation in dynamic systems, and the accuracy of the estimates.

Quantum illumination for enhanced detection of Rayleigh-fading targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Quntao; Zhang, Zheshen; Shapiro, Jeffrey H.

2017-08-01

Quantum illumination (QI) is an entanglement-enhanced sensing system whose performance advantage over a comparable classical system survives its usage in an entanglement-breaking scenario plagued by loss and noise. In particular, QI's error-probability exponent for discriminating between equally likely hypotheses of target absence or presence is 6 dB higher than that of the optimum classical system using the same transmitted power. This performance advantage, however, presumes that the target return, when present, has known amplitude and phase, a situation that seldom occurs in light detection and ranging (lidar) applications. At lidar wavelengths, most target surfaces are sufficiently rough that their returns are speckled, i.e., they have Rayleigh-distributed amplitudes and uniformly distributed phases. QI's optical parametric amplifier receiver—which affords a 3 dB better-than-classical error-probability exponent for a return with known amplitude and phase—fails to offer any performance gain for Rayleigh-fading targets. We show that the sum-frequency generation receiver [Zhuang et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 040801 (2017), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.040801]—whose error-probability exponent for a nonfading target achieves QI's full 6 dB advantage over optimum classical operation—outperforms the classical system for Rayleigh-fading targets. In this case, QI's advantage is subexponential: its error probability is lower than the classical system's by a factor of 1 /ln(M κ ¯NS/NB) , when M κ ¯NS/NB≫1 , with M ≫1 being the QI transmitter's time-bandwidth product, NS≪1 its brightness, κ ¯ the target return's average intensity, and NB the background light's brightness.

Dissociating error-based and reinforcement-based loss functions during sensorimotor learning

PubMed Central

McGregor, Heather R.; Mohatarem, Ayman

2017-01-01

It has been proposed that the sensorimotor system uses a loss (cost) function to evaluate potential movements in the presence of random noise. Here we test this idea in the context of both error-based and reinforcement-based learning. In a reaching task, we laterally shifted a cursor relative to true hand position using a skewed probability distribution. This skewed probability distribution had its mean and mode separated, allowing us to dissociate the optimal predictions of an error-based loss function (corresponding to the mean of the lateral shifts) and a reinforcement-based loss function (corresponding to the mode). We then examined how the sensorimotor system uses error feedback and reinforcement feedback, in isolation and combination, when deciding where to aim the hand during a reach. We found that participants compensated differently to the same skewed lateral shift distribution depending on the form of feedback they received. When provided with error feedback, participants compensated based on the mean of the skewed noise. When provided with reinforcement feedback, participants compensated based on the mode. Participants receiving both error and reinforcement feedback continued to compensate based on the mean while repeatedly missing the target, despite receiving auditory, visual and monetary reinforcement feedback that rewarded hitting the target. Our work shows that reinforcement-based and error-based learning are separable and can occur independently. Further, when error and reinforcement feedback are in conflict, the sensorimotor system heavily weights error feedback over reinforcement feedback. PMID:28753634

Dissociating error-based and reinforcement-based loss functions during sensorimotor learning.

PubMed

Cashaback, Joshua G A; McGregor, Heather R; Mohatarem, Ayman; Gribble, Paul L

2017-07-01

It has been proposed that the sensorimotor system uses a loss (cost) function to evaluate potential movements in the presence of random noise. Here we test this idea in the context of both error-based and reinforcement-based learning. In a reaching task, we laterally shifted a cursor relative to true hand position using a skewed probability distribution. This skewed probability distribution had its mean and mode separated, allowing us to dissociate the optimal predictions of an error-based loss function (corresponding to the mean of the lateral shifts) and a reinforcement-based loss function (corresponding to the mode). We then examined how the sensorimotor system uses error feedback and reinforcement feedback, in isolation and combination, when deciding where to aim the hand during a reach. We found that participants compensated differently to the same skewed lateral shift distribution depending on the form of feedback they received. When provided with error feedback, participants compensated based on the mean of the skewed noise. When provided with reinforcement feedback, participants compensated based on the mode. Participants receiving both error and reinforcement feedback continued to compensate based on the mean while repeatedly missing the target, despite receiving auditory, visual and monetary reinforcement feedback that rewarded hitting the target. Our work shows that reinforcement-based and error-based learning are separable and can occur independently. Further, when error and reinforcement feedback are in conflict, the sensorimotor system heavily weights error feedback over reinforcement feedback.

Pair-Wise Trajectory Management-Oceanic (PTM-O) . [Concept of Operations—Version 3.9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Kenneth M.

2014-01-01

This document describes the Pair-wise Trajectory Management-Oceanic (PTM-O) Concept of Operations (ConOps). Pair-wise Trajectory Management (PTM) is a concept that includes airborne and ground-based capabilities designed to enable and to benefit from, airborne pair-wise distance-monitoring capability. PTM includes the capabilities needed for the controller to issue a PTM clearance that resolves a conflict for a specific pair of aircraft. PTM avionics include the capabilities needed for the flight crew to manage their trajectory relative to specific designated aircraft. Pair-wise Trajectory Management PTM-Oceanic (PTM-O) is a regional specific application of the PTM concept. PTM is sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Concept and Technology Development Project (part of NASA's Airspace Systems Program). The goal of PTM is to use enhanced and distributed communications and surveillance along with airborne tools to permit reduced separation standards for given aircraft pairs, thereby increasing the capacity and efficiency of aircraft operations at a given altitude or volume of airspace.

A pairwise maximum entropy model accurately describes resting-state human brain networks

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Takamitsu; Hirose, Satoshi; Wada, Hiroyuki; Imai, Yoshio; Machida, Toru; Shirouzu, Ichiro; Konishi, Seiki; Miyashita, Yasushi; Masuda, Naoki

2013-01-01

The resting-state human brain networks underlie fundamental cognitive functions and consist of complex interactions among brain regions. However, the level of complexity of the resting-state networks has not been quantified, which has prevented comprehensive descriptions of the brain activity as an integrative system. Here, we address this issue by demonstrating that a pairwise maximum entropy model, which takes into account region-specific activity rates and pairwise interactions, can be robustly and accurately fitted to resting-state human brain activities obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, to validate the approximation of the resting-state networks by the pairwise maximum entropy model, we show that the functional interactions estimated by the pairwise maximum entropy model reflect anatomical connexions more accurately than the conventional functional connectivity method. These findings indicate that a relatively simple statistical model not only captures the structure of the resting-state networks but also provides a possible method to derive physiological information about various large-scale brain networks. PMID:23340410

Method of estimating natural recharge to the Edwards Aquifer in the San Antonio area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso

1978-01-01

The principal errors in the estimates of annual recharge are related to errors in estimating runoff in ungaged areas, which represent about 30 percent of the infiltration area. The estimated long-term average annual recharge in each basin, however, is probably representative of the actual recharge because the averaging procedure tends to cancel out the major errors.

State space truncation with quantified errors for accurate solutions to discrete Chemical Master Equation

PubMed Central

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-01-01

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEG), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. We further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of 1) the birth and death model, 2) the single gene expression model, 3) the genetic toggle switch model, and 4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate out theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks. PMID:27105653

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

State Space Truncation with Quantified Errors for Accurate Solutions to Discrete Chemical Master Equation

DOE PAGES

Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

2016-04-22

The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a general framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic reaction networks. Since its direct solution rapidly becomes intractable due to the increasing size of the state space, truncation of the state space is necessary for solving most dCMEs. It is therefore important to assess the consequences of state space truncations so errors can be quantified and minimized. Here we describe a novel method for state space truncation. By partitioning a reaction network into multiple molecular equivalence groups (MEGs), we truncate the state space by limiting the total molecular copy numbers in each MEG. Wemore » further describe a theoretical framework for analysis of the truncation error in the steady-state probability landscape using reflecting boundaries. By aggregating the state space based on the usage of a MEG and constructing an aggregated Markov process, we show that the truncation error of a MEG can be asymptotically bounded by the probability of states on the reflecting boundary of the MEG. Furthermore, truncating states of an arbitrary MEG will not undermine the estimated error of truncating any other MEGs. We then provide an overall error estimate for networks with multiple MEGs. To rapidly determine the appropriate size of an arbitrary MEG, we also introduce an a priori method to estimate the upper bound of its truncation error. This a priori estimate can be rapidly computed from reaction rates of the network, without the need of costly trial solutions of the dCME. As examples, we show results of applying our methods to the four stochastic networks of (1) the birth and death model, (2) the single gene expression model, (3) the genetic toggle switch model, and (4) the phage lambda bistable epigenetic switch model. We demonstrate how truncation errors and steady-state probability landscapes can be computed using different sizes of the MEG(s) and how the results validate our theories. Overall, the novel state space truncation and error analysis methods developed here can be used to ensure accurate direct solutions to the dCME for a large number of stochastic networks.« less

A Method to Estimate the Probability that any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within any Radius of any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2011-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud to ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

On the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: probability versus inductive confirmation.

PubMed

Tentori, Katya; Crupi, Vincenzo; Russo, Selena

2013-02-01

Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon based on the notion of inductive confirmation as defined by contemporary Bayesian theorists. Averaging rule hypotheses along with the random error model and many other existing proposals are shown to all imply that conjunction fallacy rates would rise as the perceived probability of the added conjunct does. By contrast, our account predicts that the conjunction fallacy depends on the added conjunct being perceived as inductively confirmed. Four studies are reported in which the judged probability versus confirmation of the added conjunct have been systematically manipulated and dissociated. The results consistently favor a confirmation-theoretic account of the conjunction fallacy against competing views. Our proposal is also discussed in connection with related issues in the study of human inductive reasoning. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

A Method to Estimate the Probability that Any Individual Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Stroke was Within Any Radius of Any Point

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa; Roeder, WIlliam P.; Merceret, Francis J.

2011-01-01

A new technique has been developed to estimate the probability that a nearby cloud-to-ground lightning stroke was within a specified radius of any point of interest. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even within the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collision with spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Why rate when you could compare? Using the "EloChoice" package to assess pairwise comparisons of perceived physical strength.

PubMed

Clark, Andrew P; Howard, Kate L; Woods, Andy T; Penton-Voak, Ian S; Neumann, Christof

2018-01-01

We introduce "EloChoice", a package for R which uses Elo rating to assess pairwise comparisons between stimuli in order to measure perceived stimulus characteristics. To demonstrate the package and compare results from forced choice pairwise comparisons to those from more standard single stimulus rating tasks using Likert (or Likert-type) items, we investigated perceptions of physical strength from images of male bodies. The stimulus set comprised images of 82 men standing on a raised platform with minimal clothing. Strength-related anthropometrics and grip strength measurements were available for each man in the set. UK laboratory participants (Study 1) and US online participants (Study 2) viewed all images in both a Likert rating task, to collect mean Likert scores, and a pairwise comparison task, to calculate Elo, mean Elo (mElo), and Bradley-Terry scores. Within both studies, Likert, Elo and Bradley-Terry scores were closely correlated to mElo scores (all rs > 0.95), and all measures were correlated with stimulus grip strength (all rs > 0.38) and body size (all rs > 0.59). However, mElo scores were less variable than Elo scores and were hundreds of times quicker to compute than Bradley-Terry scores. Responses in pairwise comparison trials were 2/3 quicker than in Likert tasks, indicating that participants found pairwise comparisons to be easier. In addition, mElo scores generated from a data set with half the participants randomly excluded produced very comparable results to those produced with Likert scores from the full participant set, indicating that researchers require fewer participants when using pairwise comparisons.

Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA

PubMed Central

Kelly, Brendan J.; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D.; Collman, Ronald G.; Bushman, Frederic D.; Li, Hongzhe

2015-01-01

Motivation: The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence–absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. Results: We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. Availability and implementation: http://github.com/brendankelly/micropower. Contact: brendank@mail.med.upenn.edu or hongzhe@upenn.edu PMID:25819674

Legal consequences of the moral duty to report errors.

PubMed

Hall, Jacqulyn Kay

2003-09-01

Increasingly, clinicians are under a moral duty to report errors to the patients who are injured by such errors. The sources of this duty are identified, and its probable impact on malpractice litigation and criminal law is discussed. The potential consequences of enforcing this new moral duty as a minimum in law are noted. One predicted consequence is that the trend will be accelerated toward government payment of compensation for errors. The effect of truth-telling on individuals is discussed.

An extended Reed Solomon decoder design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, J.; Owsley, P.; Purviance, J.

1991-01-01

It has previously been shown that the Reed-Solomon (RS) codes can correct errors beyond the Singleton and Rieger Bounds with an arbitrarily small probability of a miscorrect. That is, an (n,k) RS code can correct more than (n-k)/2 errors. An implementation of such an RS decoder is presented in this paper. An existing RS decoder, the AHA4010, is utilized in this work. This decoder is especially useful for errors which are patterned with a long burst plus some random errors.

Relating Regime Structure to Probability Distribution and Preferred Structure of Small Errors in a Large Atmospheric GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straus, D. M.

2007-12-01

The probability distribution (pdf) of errors is followed in identical twin studies using the COLA T63 AGCM, integrated with observed SST for 15 recent winters. 30 integrations per winter (for 15 winters) are available with initial errors that are extremely small. The evolution of the pdf is tested for multi-modality, and the results interpreted in terms of clusters / regimes found in: (a) the set of 15x30 integrations mentioned, and (b) a larger ensemble of 55x15 integrations made with the same GCM using the same SSTs. The mapping of pdf evolution and clusters is also carried out for each winter separately, using the clusters found in the 55-member ensemble for the same winter alone. This technique yields information on the change in regimes caused by different boundary forcing (Straus and Molteni, 2004; Straus, Corti and Molteni, 2006). Analysis of the growing errors in terms of baroclinic and barotropic components allows for interpretation of the corresponding instabilities.

Performance Analysis of an Inter-Relay Co-operation in FSO Communication System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Himanshu; Aggarwal, Mona; Ahuja, Swaran

2018-04-01

In this work, we analyze the outage and error performance of a one-way inter-relay assisted free space optical link. The assumption of the absence of direct link between the source and destination node is being made for the analysis, and the feasibility of such system configuration is studied. We consider the influence of path loss, atmospheric turbulence and pointing error impairments, and investigate the effect of these parameters on the system performance. The turbulence-induced fading is modeled by independent but not necessarily identically distributed gamma-gamma fading statistics. The closed-form expressions for outage probability and probability of error are derived and illustrated by numerical plots. It is concluded that the absence of line of sight path between source and destination nodes does not lead to significant performance degradation. Moreover, for the system model under consideration, interconnected relaying provides better error performance than the non-interconnected relaying and dual-hop serial relaying techniques.

SEC proton prediction model: verification and analysis.

PubMed

Balch, C C

1999-06-01

This paper describes a model that has been used at the NOAA Space Environment Center since the early 1970s as a guide for the prediction of solar energetic particle events. The algorithms for proton event probability, peak flux, and rise time are described. The predictions are compared with observations. The current model shows some ability to distinguish between proton event associated flares and flares that are not associated with proton events. The comparisons of predicted and observed peak flux show considerable scatter, with an rms error of almost an order of magnitude. Rise time comparisons also show scatter, with an rms error of approximately 28 h. The model algorithms are analyzed using historical data and improvements are suggested. Implementation of the algorithm modifications reduces the rms error in the log10 of the flux prediction by 21%, and the rise time rms error by 31%. Improvements are also realized in the probability prediction by deriving the conditional climatology for proton event occurrence given flare characteristics.

Multistate and multihypothesis discrimination with open quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiilerich, Alexander Holm; Mølmer, Klaus

2018-05-01

We show how an upper bound for the ability to discriminate any number N of candidates for the Hamiltonian governing the evolution of an open quantum system may be calculated by numerically efficient means. Our method applies an effective master-equation analysis to evaluate the pairwise overlaps between candidate full states of the system and its environment pertaining to the Hamiltonians. These overlaps are then used to construct an N -dimensional representation of the states. The optimal positive-operator valued measure (POVM) and the corresponding probability of assigning a false hypothesis may subsequently be evaluated by phrasing optimal discrimination of multiple nonorthogonal quantum states as a semidefinite programming problem. We provide three realistic examples of multihypothesis testing with open quantum systems.

How good are indirect tests at detecting recombination in human mtDNA?

PubMed

White, Daniel James; Bryant, David; Gemmell, Neil John

2013-07-08

Empirical proof of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) recombination in somatic tissues was obtained in 2004; however, a lack of irrefutable evidence exists for recombination in human mtDNA at the population level. Our inability to demonstrate convincingly a signal of recombination in population data sets of human mtDNA sequence may be due, in part, to the ineffectiveness of current indirect tests. Previously, we tested some well-established indirect tests of recombination (linkage disequilibrium vs. distance using D' and r(2), Homoplasy Test, Pairwise Homoplasy Index, Neighborhood Similarity Score, and Max χ(2)) on sequence data derived from the only empirically confirmed case of human mtDNA recombination thus far and demonstrated that some methods were unable to detect recombination. Here, we assess the performance of these six well-established tests and explore what characteristics specific to human mtDNA sequence may affect their efficacy by simulating sequence under various parameters with levels of recombination (ρ) that vary around an empirically derived estimate for human mtDNA (population parameter ρ = 5.492). No test performed infallibly under any of our scenarios, and error rates varied across tests, whereas detection rates increased substantially with ρ values > 5.492. Under a model of evolution that incorporates parameters specific to human mtDNA, including rate heterogeneity, population expansion, and ρ = 5.492, successful detection rates are limited to a range of 7-70% across tests with an acceptable level of false-positive results: the neighborhood similarity score incompatibility test performed best overall under these parameters. Population growth seems to have the greatest impact on recombination detection probabilities across all models tested, likely due to its impact on sequence diversity. The implications of our findings on our current understanding of mtDNA recombination in humans are discussed.

How Good Are Indirect Tests at Detecting Recombination in Human mtDNA?

PubMed Central

White, Daniel James; Bryant, David; Gemmell, Neil John

2013-01-01

Empirical proof of human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) recombination in somatic tissues was obtained in 2004; however, a lack of irrefutable evidence exists for recombination in human mtDNA at the population level. Our inability to demonstrate convincingly a signal of recombination in population data sets of human mtDNA sequence may be due, in part, to the ineffectiveness of current indirect tests. Previously, we tested some well-established indirect tests of recombination (linkage disequilibrium vs. distance using D′ and r2, Homoplasy Test, Pairwise Homoplasy Index, Neighborhood Similarity Score, and Max χ2) on sequence data derived from the only empirically confirmed case of human mtDNA recombination thus far and demonstrated that some methods were unable to detect recombination. Here, we assess the performance of these six well-established tests and explore what characteristics specific to human mtDNA sequence may affect their efficacy by simulating sequence under various parameters with levels of recombination (ρ) that vary around an empirically derived estimate for human mtDNA (population parameter ρ = 5.492). No test performed infallibly under any of our scenarios, and error rates varied across tests, whereas detection rates increased substantially with ρ values > 5.492. Under a model of evolution that incorporates parameters specific to human mtDNA, including rate heterogeneity, population expansion, and ρ = 5.492, successful detection rates are limited to a range of 7−70% across tests with an acceptable level of false-positive results: the neighborhood similarity score incompatibility test performed best overall under these parameters. Population growth seems to have the greatest impact on recombination detection probabilities across all models tested, likely due to its impact on sequence diversity. The implications of our findings on our current understanding of mtDNA recombination in humans are discussed. PMID:23665874

Error-related negativities elicited by monetary loss and cues that predict loss.

PubMed

Dunning, Jonathan P; Hajcak, Greg

2007-11-19

Event-related potential studies have reported error-related negativity following both error commission and feedback indicating errors or monetary loss. The present study examined whether error-related negativities could be elicited by a predictive cue presented prior to both the decision and subsequent feedback in a gambling task. Participants were presented with a cue that indicated the probability of reward on the upcoming trial (0, 50, and 100%). Results showed a negative deflection in the event-related potential in response to loss cues compared with win cues; this waveform shared a similar latency and morphology with the traditional feedback error-related negativity.

Quantum error-correction failure distributions: Comparison of coherent and stochastic error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jeff P.; Trout, Colin J.; Lucarelli, Dennis; Clader, B. D.

2017-06-01

We compare failure distributions of quantum error correction circuits for stochastic errors and coherent errors. We utilize a fully coherent simulation of a fault-tolerant quantum error correcting circuit for a d =3 Steane and surface code. We find that the output distributions are markedly different for the two error models, showing that no simple mapping between the two error models exists. Coherent errors create very broad and heavy-tailed failure distributions. This suggests that they are susceptible to outlier events and that mean statistics, such as pseudothreshold estimates, may not provide the key figure of merit. This provides further statistical insight into why coherent errors can be so harmful for quantum error correction. These output probability distributions may also provide a useful metric that can be utilized when optimizing quantum error correcting codes and decoding procedures for purely coherent errors.

Human-computer interaction in multitask situations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, W. B.

1977-01-01

Human-computer interaction in multitask decisionmaking situations is considered, and it is proposed that humans and computers have overlapping responsibilities. Queueing theory is employed to model this dynamic approach to the allocation of responsibility between human and computer. Results of simulation experiments are used to illustrate the effects of several system variables including number of tasks, mean time between arrivals of action-evoking events, human-computer speed mismatch, probability of computer error, probability of human error, and the level of feedback between human and computer. Current experimental efforts are discussed and the practical issues involved in designing human-computer systems for multitask situations are considered.

Outage probability of a relay strategy allowing intra-link errors utilizing Slepian-Wolf theorem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Meng; Anwar, Khoirul; Matsumoto, Tad

2013-12-01

In conventional decode-and-forward (DF) one-way relay systems, a data block received at the relay node is discarded, if the information part is found to have errors after decoding. Such errors are referred to as intra-link errors in this article. However, in a setup where the relay forwards data blocks despite possible intra-link errors, the two data blocks, one from the source node and the other from the relay node, are highly correlated because they were transmitted from the same source. In this article, we focus on the outage probability analysis of such a relay transmission system, where source-destination and relay-destination links, Link 1 and Link 2, respectively, are assumed to suffer from the correlated fading variation due to block Rayleigh fading. The intra-link is assumed to be represented by a simple bit-flipping model, where some of the information bits recovered at the relay node are the flipped version of their corresponding original information bits at the source. The correlated bit streams are encoded separately by the source and relay nodes, and transmitted block-by-block to a common destination using different time slots, where the information sequence transmitted over Link 2 may be a noise-corrupted interleaved version of the original sequence. The joint decoding takes place at the destination by exploiting the correlation knowledge of the intra-link (source-relay link). It is shown that the outage probability of the proposed transmission technique can be expressed by a set of double integrals over the admissible rate range, given by the Slepian-Wolf theorem, with respect to the probability density function ( pdf) of the instantaneous signal-to-noise power ratios (SNR) of Link 1 and Link 2. It is found that, with the Slepian-Wolf relay technique, so far as the correlation ρ of the complex fading variation is | ρ|<1, the 2nd order diversity can be achieved only if the two bit streams are fully correlated. This indicates that the diversity order exhibited in the outage curve converges to 1 when the bit streams are not fully correlated. Moreover, the Slepian-Wolf outage probability is proved to be smaller than that of the 2nd order maximum ratio combining (MRC) diversity, if the average SNRs of the two independent links are the same. Exact as well as asymptotic expressions of the outage probability are theoretically derived in the article. In addition, the theoretical outage results are compared with the frame-error-rate (FER) curves, obtained by a series of simulations for the Slepian-Wolf relay system based on bit-interleaved coded modulation with iterative detection (BICM-ID). It is shown that the FER curves exhibit the same tendency as the theoretical results.

Assessment and quantification of patient set-up errors in nasopharyngeal cancer patients and their biological and dosimetric impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP).

PubMed

Boughalia, A; Marcie, S; Fellah, M; Chami, S; Mekki, F

2015-06-01

The aim of this study is to assess and quantify patients' set-up errors using an electronic portal imaging device and to evaluate their dosimetric and biological impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) on predictive models, such as the tumour control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). 20 patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer were enrolled in the radiotherapy-oncology department of HCA. Systematic and random errors were quantified. The dosimetric and biological impact of these set-up errors on the target volume and the organ at risk (OARs) coverage were assessed using calculation of dose-volume histogram, gEUD, TCP and NTCP. For this purpose, an in-house software was developed and used. The standard deviations (1SDs) of the systematic set-up and random set-up errors were calculated for the lateral and subclavicular fields and gave the following results: ∑ = 0.63 ± (0.42) mm and σ = 3.75 ± (0.79) mm, respectively. Thus a planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margin of 3 mm was defined around the OARs, and a 5-mm margin used around the clinical target volume. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP calculations obtained with and without set-up errors have shown increased values for tumour, where ΔgEUD (tumour) = 1.94% Gy (p = 0.00721) and ΔTCP = 2.03%. The toxicity of OARs was quantified using gEUD and NTCP. The values of ΔgEUD (OARs) vary from 0.78% to 5.95% in the case of the brainstem and the optic chiasm, respectively. The corresponding ΔNTCP varies from 0.15% to 0.53%, respectively. The quantification of set-up errors has a dosimetric and biological impact on the tumour and on the OARs. The developed in-house software using the concept of gEUD, TCP and NTCP biological models has been successfully used in this study. It can be used also to optimize the treatment plan established for our patients. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP may be more suitable tools to assess the treatment plans before treating the patients.

Use of attribute association error probability estimates to evaluate quality of medical record geocodes.

PubMed

Klaus, Christian A; Carrasco, Luis E; Goldberg, Daniel W; Henry, Kevin A; Sherman, Recinda L

2015-09-15

The utility of patient attributes associated with the spatiotemporal analysis of medical records lies not just in their values but also the strength of association between them. Estimating the extent to which a hierarchy of conditional probability exists between patient attribute associations such as patient identifying fields, patient and date of diagnosis, and patient and address at diagnosis is fundamental to estimating the strength of association between patient and geocode, and patient and enumeration area. We propose a hierarchy for the attribute associations within medical records that enable spatiotemporal relationships. We also present a set of metrics that store attribute association error probability (AAEP), to estimate error probability for all attribute associations upon which certainty in a patient geocode depends. A series of experiments were undertaken to understand how error estimation could be operationalized within health data and what levels of AAEP in real data reveal themselves using these methods. Specifically, the goals of this evaluation were to (1) assess if the concept of our error assessment techniques could be implemented by a population-based cancer registry; (2) apply the techniques to real data from a large health data agency and characterize the observed levels of AAEP; and (3) demonstrate how detected AAEP might impact spatiotemporal health research. We present an evaluation of AAEP metrics generated for cancer cases in a North Carolina county. We show examples of how we estimated AAEP for selected attribute associations and circumstances. We demonstrate the distribution of AAEP in our case sample across attribute associations, and demonstrate ways in which disease registry specific operations influence the prevalence of AAEP estimates for specific attribute associations. The effort to detect and store estimates of AAEP is worthwhile because of the increase in confidence fostered by the attribute association level approach to the assessment of uncertainty in patient geocodes, relative to existing geocoding related uncertainty metrics.

The precision segmented reflectors: Moderate mission figure control subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sevaston, G.; Redding, D.; Lau, K.; Breckenridge, W.; Levine, B.; Nerheim, N.; Sirlin, S.; Kadogawa, H.

1991-01-01

A system concept for a space based segmented reflector telescope figure control subsystem is described. The concept employs a two phase architecture in which figure initialization and figure maintenance are independent functions. Figure initialization is accomplished by image sharpening using natural reference targets. Figure maintenance is performed by monitoring the relative positions and alignments of the telescope components using an optical truss. Actuation is achieved using precision positioners. Computer simulation results of figure initialization by pairwise segment coalignment/cophasing and simulated annealing are presented along with figure maintenance results using a wavefront error regulation algorithm. Both functions are shown to perform at acceptable levels for the class of submillimeter telescopes that are serving as the focus of this technology development effort. Component breadboard work as well as plans for a system testbed are discussed.

Cost effectiveness of a pharmacist-led information technology intervention for reducing rates of clinically important errors in medicines management in general practices (PINCER).

PubMed

Elliott, Rachel A; Putman, Koen D; Franklin, Matthew; Annemans, Lieven; Verhaeghe, Nick; Eden, Martin; Hayre, Jasdeep; Rodgers, Sarah; Sheikh, Aziz; Avery, Anthony J

2014-06-01

We recently showed that a pharmacist-led information technology-based intervention (PINCER) was significantly more effective in reducing medication errors in general practices than providing simple feedback on errors, with cost per error avoided at £79 (US$131). We aimed to estimate cost effectiveness of the PINCER intervention by combining effectiveness in error reduction and intervention costs with the effect of the individual errors on patient outcomes and healthcare costs, to estimate the effect on costs and QALYs. We developed Markov models for each of six medication errors targeted by PINCER. Clinical event probability, treatment pathway, resource use and costs were extracted from literature and costing tariffs. A composite probabilistic model combined patient-level error models with practice-level error rates and intervention costs from the trial. Cost per extra QALY and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were generated from the perspective of NHS England, with a 5-year time horizon. The PINCER intervention generated £2,679 less cost and 0.81 more QALYs per practice [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER): -£3,037 per QALY] in the deterministic analysis. In the probabilistic analysis, PINCER generated 0.001 extra QALYs per practice compared with simple feedback, at £4.20 less per practice. Despite this extremely small set of differences in costs and outcomes, PINCER dominated simple feedback with a mean ICER of -£3,936 (standard error £2,970). At a ceiling 'willingness-to-pay' of £20,000/QALY, PINCER reaches 59 % probability of being cost effective. PINCER produced marginal health gain at slightly reduced overall cost. Results are uncertain due to the poor quality of data to inform the effect of avoiding errors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, H; Chen, Z; Nath, R

Purpose: kV fluoroscopic imaging combined with MV treatment beam imaging has been investigated for intrafractional motion monitoring and correction. It is, however, subject to additional kV imaging dose to normal tissue. To balance tracking accuracy and imaging dose, we previously proposed an adaptive imaging strategy to dynamically decide future imaging type and moments based on motion tracking uncertainty. kV imaging may be used continuously for maximal accuracy or only when the position uncertainty (probability of out of threshold) is high if a preset imaging dose limit is considered. In this work, we propose more accurate methods to estimate tracking uncertaintymore » through analyzing acquired data in real-time. Methods: We simulated motion tracking process based on a previously developed imaging framework (MV + initial seconds of kV imaging) using real-time breathing data from 42 patients. Motion tracking errors for each time point were collected together with the time point’s corresponding features, such as tumor motion speed and 2D tracking error of previous time points, etc. We tested three methods for error uncertainty estimation based on the features: conditional probability distribution, logistic regression modeling, and support vector machine (SVM) classification to detect errors exceeding a threshold. Results: For conditional probability distribution, polynomial regressions on three features (previous tracking error, prediction quality, and cosine of the angle between the trajectory and the treatment beam) showed strong correlation with the variation (uncertainty) of the mean 3D tracking error and its standard deviation: R-square = 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. The logistic regression and SVM classification successfully identified about 95% of tracking errors exceeding 2.5mm threshold. Conclusion: The proposed methods can reliably estimate the motion tracking uncertainty in real-time, which can be used to guide adaptive additional imaging to confirm the tumor is within the margin or initialize motion compensation if it is out of the margin.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herberger, Sarah M.; Boring, Ronald L.

Abstract Objectives: This paper discusses the differences between classical human reliability analysis (HRA) dependence and the full spectrum of probabilistic dependence. Positive influence suggests an error increases the likelihood of subsequent errors or success increases the likelihood of subsequent success. Currently the typical method for dependence in HRA implements the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) positive dependence equations. This assumes that the dependence between two human failure events varies at discrete levels between zero and complete dependence (as defined by THERP). Dependence in THERP does not consistently span dependence values between 0 and 1. In contrast, probabilistic dependencemore » employs Bayes Law, and addresses a continuous range of dependence. Methods: Using the laws of probability, complete dependence and maximum positive dependence do not always agree. Maximum dependence is when two events overlap to their fullest amount. Maximum negative dependence is the smallest amount that two events can overlap. When the minimum probability of two events overlapping is less than independence, negative dependence occurs. For example, negative dependence is when an operator fails to actuate Pump A, thereby increasing his or her chance of actuating Pump B. The initial error actually increases the chance of subsequent success. Results: Comparing THERP and probability theory yields different results in certain scenarios; with the latter addressing negative dependence. Given that most human failure events are rare, the minimum overlap is typically 0. And when the second event is smaller than the first event the max dependence is less than 1, as defined by Bayes Law. As such alternative dependence equations are provided along with a look-up table defining the maximum and maximum negative dependence given the probability of two events. Conclusions: THERP dependence has been used ubiquitously for decades, and has provided approximations of the dependencies between two events. Since its inception, computational abilities have increased exponentially, and alternative approaches that follow the laws of probability dependence need to be implemented. These new approaches need to consider negative dependence and identify when THERP output is not appropriate.« less

Finding Useful Questions: On Bayesian Diagnosticity, Probability, Impact, and Information Gain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Jonathan D.

2005-01-01

Several norms for how people should assess a question's usefulness have been proposed, notably Bayesian diagnosticity, information gain (mutual information), Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact (absolute change). Several probabilistic models of previous experiments on categorization, covariation assessment,…

Teaching Uncertainties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duerdoth, Ian

2009-01-01

The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

Circular Probable Error for Circular and Noncircular Gaussian Impacts

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

1M simulated impacts ph(k)=mean(imp(:,1).^2+imp(:,2).^2<=CEP^2); % hit frequency on CEP end phit (j)=mean(ph...avg 100 hit frequencies to “incr n” end % GRAPHICS plot(i, phit ,’r-’); % error exponent versus Ph estimate

Theoretical Analysis of Rain Attenuation Probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Surendra Kr.; Jha, Santosh Kr.; Jha, Lallan

2007-07-01

Satellite communication technologies are now highly developed and high quality, distance-independent services have expanded over a very wide area. As for the system design of the Hokkaido integrated telecommunications(HIT) network, it must first overcome outages of satellite links due to rain attenuation in ka frequency bands. In this paper theoretical analysis of rain attenuation probability on a slant path has been made. The formula proposed is based Weibull distribution and incorporates recent ITU-R recommendations concerning the necessary rain rates and rain heights inputs. The error behaviour of the model was tested with the loading rain attenuation prediction model recommended by ITU-R for large number of experiments at different probability levels. The novel slant path rain attenuastion prediction model compared to the ITU-R one exhibits a similar behaviour at low time percentages and a better root-mean-square error performance for probability levels above 0.02%. The set of presented models exhibits the advantage of implementation with little complexity and is considered useful for educational and back of the envelope computations.

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herzog, James P. (Inventor); Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor)

2005-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2006-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Surveillance System and Method having an Adaptive Sequential Probability Fault Detection Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bickford, Randall L. (Inventor); Herzog, James P. (Inventor)

2008-01-01

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Distributed Immune Systems for Wireless Network Information Assurance

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-26

ratio test (SPRT), where the goal is to optimize a hypothesis testing problem given a trade-off between the probability of errors and the...using cumulative sum (CUSUM) and Girshik-Rubin-Shiryaev (GRSh) statistics. In sequential versions of the problem the sequential probability ratio ...the more complicated problems, in particular those where no clear mean can be established. We developed algorithms based on the sequential probability

Use of modeling to identify vulnerabilities to human error in laparoscopy.

PubMed

Funk, Kenneth H; Bauer, James D; Doolen, Toni L; Telasha, David; Nicolalde, R Javier; Reeber, Miriam; Yodpijit, Nantakrit; Long, Myra

2010-01-01

This article describes an exercise to investigate the utility of modeling and human factors analysis in understanding surgical processes and their vulnerabilities to medical error. A formal method to identify error vulnerabilities was developed and applied to a test case of Veress needle insertion during closed laparoscopy. A team of 2 surgeons, a medical assistant, and 3 engineers used hierarchical task analysis and Integrated DEFinition language 0 (IDEF0) modeling to create rich models of the processes used in initial port creation. Using terminology from a standardized human performance database, detailed task descriptions were written for 4 tasks executed in the process of inserting the Veress needle. Key terms from the descriptions were used to extract from the database generic errors that could occur. Task descriptions with potential errors were translated back into surgical terminology. Referring to the process models and task descriptions, the team used a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to consider each potential error for its probability of occurrence, its consequences if it should occur and be undetected, and its probability of detection. The resulting likely and consequential errors were prioritized for intervention. A literature-based validation study confirmed the significance of the top error vulnerabilities identified using the method. Ongoing work includes design and evaluation of procedures to correct the identified vulnerabilities and improvements to the modeling and vulnerability identification methods. Copyright 2010 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fine-tuning molecular acoustic models: sensitivity of the predicted attenuation to the Lennard-Jones parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petculescu, Andi G.; Lueptow, Richard M.

2005-01-01

In a previous paper [Y. Dain and R. M. Lueptow, J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 109, 1955 (2001)], a model of acoustic attenuation due to vibration-translation and vibration-vibration relaxation in multiple polyatomic gas mixtures was developed. In this paper, the model is improved by treating binary molecular collisions via fully pairwise vibrational transition probabilities. The sensitivity of the model to small variations in the Lennard-Jones parameters-collision diameter (σ) and potential depth (ɛ)-is investigated for nitrogen-water-methane mixtures. For a N2(98.97%)-H2O(338 ppm)-CH4(1%) test mixture, the transition probabilities and acoustic absorption curves are much more sensitive to σ than they are to ɛ. Additionally, when the 1% methane is replaced by nitrogen, the resulting mixture [N2(99.97%)-H2O(338 ppm)] becomes considerably more sensitive to changes of σwater. The current model minimizes the underprediction of the acoustic absorption peak magnitudes reported by S. G. Ejakov et al. [J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 113, 1871 (2003)]. .

Power and type I error results for a bias-correction approach recently shown to provide accurate odds ratios of genetic variants for the secondary phenotypes associated with primary diseases.

PubMed

Wang, Jian; Shete, Sanjay

2011-11-01

We recently proposed a bias correction approach to evaluate accurate estimation of the odds ratio (OR) of genetic variants associated with a secondary phenotype, in which the secondary phenotype is associated with the primary disease, based on the original case-control data collected for the purpose of studying the primary disease. As reported in this communication, we further investigated the type I error probabilities and powers of the proposed approach, and compared the results to those obtained from logistic regression analysis (with or without adjustment for the primary disease status). We performed a simulation study based on a frequency-matching case-control study with respect to the secondary phenotype of interest. We examined the empirical distribution of the natural logarithm of the corrected OR obtained from the bias correction approach and found it to be normally distributed under the null hypothesis. On the basis of the simulation study results, we found that the logistic regression approaches that adjust or do not adjust for the primary disease status had low power for detecting secondary phenotype associated variants and highly inflated type I error probabilities, whereas our approach was more powerful for identifying the SNP-secondary phenotype associations and had better-controlled type I error probabilities. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Why rate when you could compare? Using the “EloChoice” package to assess pairwise comparisons of perceived physical strength

PubMed Central

Howard, Kate L.; Woods, Andy T.; Penton-Voak, Ian S.; Neumann, Christof

2018-01-01

We introduce “EloChoice”, a package for R which uses Elo rating to assess pairwise comparisons between stimuli in order to measure perceived stimulus characteristics. To demonstrate the package and compare results from forced choice pairwise comparisons to those from more standard single stimulus rating tasks using Likert (or Likert-type) items, we investigated perceptions of physical strength from images of male bodies. The stimulus set comprised images of 82 men standing on a raised platform with minimal clothing. Strength-related anthropometrics and grip strength measurements were available for each man in the set. UK laboratory participants (Study 1) and US online participants (Study 2) viewed all images in both a Likert rating task, to collect mean Likert scores, and a pairwise comparison task, to calculate Elo, mean Elo (mElo), and Bradley-Terry scores. Within both studies, Likert, Elo and Bradley-Terry scores were closely correlated to mElo scores (all rs > 0.95), and all measures were correlated with stimulus grip strength (all rs > 0.38) and body size (all rs > 0.59). However, mElo scores were less variable than Elo scores and were hundreds of times quicker to compute than Bradley-Terry scores. Responses in pairwise comparison trials were 2/3 quicker than in Likert tasks, indicating that participants found pairwise comparisons to be easier. In addition, mElo scores generated from a data set with half the participants randomly excluded produced very comparable results to those produced with Likert scores from the full participant set, indicating that researchers require fewer participants when using pairwise comparisons. PMID:29293615

Reciprocally-Benefited Secure Transmission for Spectrum Sensing-Based Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Wang, Dawei; Ren, Pinyi; Du, Qinghe; Sun, Li; Wang, Yichen

2016-01-01

The rapid proliferation of independently-designed and -deployed wireless sensor networks extremely crowds the wireless spectrum and promotes the emergence of cognitive radio sensor networks (CRSN). In CRSN, the sensor node (SN) can make full use of the unutilized licensed spectrum, and the spectrum efficiency is greatly improved. However, inevitable spectrum sensing errors will adversely interfere with the primary transmission, which may result in primary transmission outage. To compensate the adverse effect of spectrum sensing errors, we propose a reciprocally-benefited secure transmission strategy, in which SN’s interference to the eavesdropper is employed to protect the primary confidential messages while the CRSN is also rewarded with a loose spectrum sensing error probability constraint. Specifically, according to the spectrum sensing results and primary users’ activities, there are four system states in this strategy. For each state, we analyze the primary secrecy rate and the SN’s transmission rate by taking into account the spectrum sensing errors. Then, the SN’s transmit power is optimally allocated for each state so that the average transmission rate of CRSN is maximized under the constraint of the primary maximum permitted secrecy outage probability. In addition, the performance tradeoff between the transmission rate of CRSN and the primary secrecy outage probability is investigated. Moreover, we analyze the primary secrecy rate for the asymptotic scenarios and derive the closed-form expression of the SN’s transmission outage probability. Simulation results show that: (1) the performance of the SN’s average throughput in the proposed strategy outperforms the conventional overlay strategy; (2) both the primary network and CRSN benefit from the proposed strategy. PMID:27897988

Investigation of an Optimum Detection Scheme for a Star-Field Mapping System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldridge, M. D.; Credeur, L.

1970-01-01

An investigation was made to determine the optimum detection scheme for a star-field mapping system that uses coded detection resulting from starlight shining through specially arranged multiple slits of a reticle. The computer solution of equations derived from a theoretical model showed that the greatest probability of detection for a given star and background intensity occurred with the use of a single transparent slit. However, use of multiple slits improved the system's ability to reject the detection of undesirable lower intensity stars, but only by decreasing the probability of detection for lower intensity stars to be mapped. Also, it was found that the coding arrangement affected the root-mean-square star-position error and that detection is possible with error in the system's detected spin rate, though at a reduced probability.

Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum.

PubMed

Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N; Iijima, Toshio; Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro

2015-11-01

To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

Discrete coding of stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error in the dorsal striatum

PubMed Central

Oyama, Kei; Tateyama, Yukina; Hernádi, István; Tobler, Philippe N.; Iijima, Toshio

2015-01-01

To investigate how the striatum integrates sensory information with reward information for behavioral guidance, we recorded single-unit activity in the dorsal striatum of head-fixed rats participating in a probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning task with auditory conditioned stimuli (CSs) in which reward probability was fixed for each CS but parametrically varied across CSs. We found that the activity of many neurons was linearly correlated with the reward probability indicated by the CSs. The recorded neurons could be classified according to their firing patterns into functional subtypes coding reward probability in different forms such as stimulus value, reward expectation, and reward prediction error. These results suggest that several functional subgroups of dorsal striatal neurons represent different kinds of information formed through extensive prior exposure to CS-reward contingencies. PMID:26378201

A Comparative Study of Pairwise Learning Methods Based on Kernel Ridge Regression.

PubMed

Stock, Michiel; Pahikkala, Tapio; Airola, Antti; De Baets, Bernard; Waegeman, Willem

2018-06-12

Many machine learning problems can be formulated as predicting labels for a pair of objects. Problems of that kind are often referred to as pairwise learning, dyadic prediction, or network inference problems. During the past decade, kernel methods have played a dominant role in pairwise learning. They still obtain a state-of-the-art predictive performance, but a theoretical analysis of their behavior has been underexplored in the machine learning literature. In this work we review and unify kernel-based algorithms that are commonly used in different pairwise learning settings, ranging from matrix filtering to zero-shot learning. To this end, we focus on closed-form efficient instantiations of Kronecker kernel ridge regression. We show that independent task kernel ridge regression, two-step kernel ridge regression, and a linear matrix filter arise naturally as a special case of Kronecker kernel ridge regression, implying that all these methods implicitly minimize a squared loss. In addition, we analyze universality, consistency, and spectral filtering properties. Our theoretical results provide valuable insights into assessing the advantages and limitations of existing pairwise learning methods.

Multiplicity Control in Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cribbie, Robert A.

2007-01-01

Researchers conducting structural equation modeling analyses rarely, if ever, control for the inflated probability of Type I errors when evaluating the statistical significance of multiple parameters in a model. In this study, the Type I error control, power and true model rates of famsilywise and false discovery rate controlling procedures were…

Probabilities of Occurrence of Baro-Fuze System Errors More Than 1000 Feet Too Low Due to Ignoring the Meteorological Forecast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Charles, B.N.

1955-05-12

Charts of the geographical distribution of the annual and seasonal D-values and their standard deviations at altitudes of 4500, 6000, and 7000 feeet over Eurasia are derived, which are used to estimate the frequency of baro system errors.

Rewriting evolution--"been there, done that".

PubMed

Penny, David

2013-01-01

A recent paper by a science journalist in Nature shows major errors in understanding phylogenies, in this case of placental mammals. The underlying unrooted tree is probably correct, but the placement of the root just reflects a well-known error from the acceleration in the rate of evolution among some myomorph rodents.

Causal inference with measurement error in outcomes: Bias analysis and estimation methods.

PubMed

Shu, Di; Yi, Grace Y

2017-01-01

Inverse probability weighting estimation has been popularly used to consistently estimate the average treatment effect. Its validity, however, is challenged by the presence of error-prone variables. In this paper, we explore the inverse probability weighting estimation with mismeasured outcome variables. We study the impact of measurement error for both continuous and discrete outcome variables and reveal interesting consequences of the naive analysis which ignores measurement error. When a continuous outcome variable is mismeasured under an additive measurement error model, the naive analysis may still yield a consistent estimator; when the outcome is binary, we derive the asymptotic bias in a closed-form. Furthermore, we develop consistent estimation procedures for practical scenarios where either validation data or replicates are available. With validation data, we propose an efficient method for estimation of average treatment effect; the efficiency gain is substantial relative to usual methods of using validation data. To provide protection against model misspecification, we further propose a doubly robust estimator which is consistent even when either the treatment model or the outcome model is misspecified. Simulation studies are reported to assess the performance of the proposed methods. An application to a smoking cessation dataset is presented.

The effects of recall errors and of selection bias in epidemiologic studies of mobile phone use and cancer risk.

PubMed

Vrijheid, Martine; Deltour, Isabelle; Krewski, Daniel; Sanchez, Marie; Cardis, Elisabeth

2006-07-01

This paper examines the effects of systematic and random errors in recall and of selection bias in case-control studies of mobile phone use and cancer. These sensitivity analyses are based on Monte-Carlo computer simulations and were carried out within the INTERPHONE Study, an international collaborative case-control study in 13 countries. Recall error scenarios simulated plausible values of random and systematic, non-differential and differential recall errors in amount of mobile phone use reported by study subjects. Plausible values for the recall error were obtained from validation studies. Selection bias scenarios assumed varying selection probabilities for cases and controls, mobile phone users, and non-users. Where possible these selection probabilities were based on existing information from non-respondents in INTERPHONE. Simulations used exposure distributions based on existing INTERPHONE data and assumed varying levels of the true risk of brain cancer related to mobile phone use. Results suggest that random recall errors of plausible levels can lead to a large underestimation in the risk of brain cancer associated with mobile phone use. Random errors were found to have larger impact than plausible systematic errors. Differential errors in recall had very little additional impact in the presence of large random errors. Selection bias resulting from underselection of unexposed controls led to J-shaped exposure-response patterns, with risk apparently decreasing at low to moderate exposure levels. The present results, in conjunction with those of the validation studies conducted within the INTERPHONE study, will play an important role in the interpretation of existing and future case-control studies of mobile phone use and cancer risk, including the INTERPHONE study.

Kendall-Theil Robust Line (KTRLine--version 1.0)-A Visual Basic Program for Calculating and Graphing Robust Nonparametric Estimates of Linear-Regression Coefficients Between Two Continuous Variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.

2006-01-01

The Kendall-Theil Robust Line software (KTRLine-version 1.0) is a Visual Basic program that may be used with the Microsoft Windows operating system to calculate parameters for robust, nonparametric estimates of linear-regression coefficients between two continuous variables. The KTRLine software was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration, for use in stochastic data modeling with local, regional, and national hydrologic data sets to develop planning-level estimates of potential effects of highway runoff on the quality of receiving waters. The Kendall-Theil robust line was selected because this robust nonparametric method is resistant to the effects of outliers and nonnormality in residuals that commonly characterize hydrologic data sets. The slope of the line is calculated as the median of all possible pairwise slopes between points. The intercept is calculated so that the line will run through the median of input data. A single-line model or a multisegment model may be specified. The program was developed to provide regression equations with an error component for stochastic data generation because nonparametric multisegment regression tools are not available with the software that is commonly used to develop regression models. The Kendall-Theil robust line is a median line and, therefore, may underestimate total mass, volume, or loads unless the error component or a bias correction factor is incorporated into the estimate. Regression statistics such as the median error, the median absolute deviation, the prediction error sum of squares, the root mean square error, the confidence interval for the slope, and the bias correction factor for median estimates are calculated by use of nonparametric methods. These statistics, however, may be used to formulate estimates of mass, volume, or total loads. The program is used to read a two- or three-column tab-delimited input file with variable names in the first row and data in subsequent rows. The user may choose the columns that contain the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variable. A third column, if present, may contain metadata such as the sample-collection location and date. The program screens the input files and plots the data. The KTRLine software is a graphical tool that facilitates development of regression models by use of graphs of the regression line with data, the regression residuals (with X or Y), and percentile plots of the cumulative frequency of the X variable, Y variable, and the regression residuals. The user may individually transform the independent and dependent variables to reduce heteroscedasticity and to linearize data. The program plots the data and the regression line. The program also prints model specifications and regression statistics to the screen. The user may save and print the regression results. The program can accept data sets that contain up to about 15,000 XY data points, but because the program must sort the array of all pairwise slopes, the program may be perceptibly slow with data sets that contain more than about 1,000 points.

The zero-multipole summation method for estimating electrostatic interactions in molecular dynamics: analysis of the accuracy and application to liquid systems.

PubMed

Fukuda, Ikuo; Kamiya, Narutoshi; Nakamura, Haruki

2014-05-21

In the preceding paper [I. Fukuda, J. Chem. Phys. 139, 174107 (2013)], the zero-multipole (ZM) summation method was proposed for efficiently evaluating the electrostatic Coulombic interactions of a classical point charge system. The summation takes a simple pairwise form, but prevents the electrically non-neutral multipole states that may artificially be generated by a simple cutoff truncation, which often causes large energetic noises and significant artifacts. The purpose of this paper is to judge the ability of the ZM method by investigating the accuracy, parameter dependencies, and stability in applications to liquid systems. To conduct this, first, the energy-functional error was divided into three terms and each term was analyzed by a theoretical error-bound estimation. This estimation gave us a clear basis of the discussions on the numerical investigations. It also gave a new viewpoint between the excess energy error and the damping effect by the damping parameter. Second, with the aid of these analyses, the ZM method was evaluated based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of two fundamental liquid systems, a molten sodium-chlorine ion system and a pure water molecule system. In the ion system, the energy accuracy, compared with the Ewald summation, was better for a larger value of multipole moment l currently induced until l ≲ 3 on average. This accuracy improvement with increasing l is due to the enhancement of the excess-energy accuracy. However, this improvement is wholly effective in the total accuracy if the theoretical moment l is smaller than or equal to a system intrinsic moment L. The simulation results thus indicate L ∼ 3 in this system, and we observed less accuracy in l = 4. We demonstrated the origins of parameter dependencies appearing in the crossing behavior and the oscillations of the energy error curves. With raising the moment l we observed, smaller values of the damping parameter provided more accurate results and smoother behaviors with respect to cutoff length were obtained. These features can be explained, on the basis of the theoretical error analyses, such that the excess energy accuracy is improved with increasing l and that the total accuracy improvement within l ⩽ L is facilitated by a small damping parameter. Although the accuracy was fundamentally similar to the ion system, the bulk water system exhibited distinguishable quantitative behaviors. A smaller damping parameter was effective in all the practical cutoff distance, and this fact can be interpreted by the reduction of the excess subset. A lower moment was advantageous in the energy accuracy, where l = 1 was slightly superior to l = 2 in this system. However, the method with l = 2 (viz., the zero-quadrupole sum) gave accurate results for the radial distribution function. We confirmed the stability in the numerical integration for MD simulations employing the ZM scheme. This result is supported by the sufficient smoothness of the energy function. Along with the smoothness, the pairwise feature and the allowance of the atom-based cutoff mode on the energy formula lead to the exact zero total-force, ensuring the total-momentum conservations for typical MD equations of motion.

The zero-multipole summation method for estimating electrostatic interactions in molecular dynamics: Analysis of the accuracy and application to liquid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Ikuo; Kamiya, Narutoshi; Nakamura, Haruki

2014-05-01

In the preceding paper [I. Fukuda, J. Chem. Phys. 139, 174107 (2013)], the zero-multipole (ZM) summation method was proposed for efficiently evaluating the electrostatic Coulombic interactions of a classical point charge system. The summation takes a simple pairwise form, but prevents the electrically non-neutral multipole states that may artificially be generated by a simple cutoff truncation, which often causes large energetic noises and significant artifacts. The purpose of this paper is to judge the ability of the ZM method by investigating the accuracy, parameter dependencies, and stability in applications to liquid systems. To conduct this, first, the energy-functional error was divided into three terms and each term was analyzed by a theoretical error-bound estimation. This estimation gave us a clear basis of the discussions on the numerical investigations. It also gave a new viewpoint between the excess energy error and the damping effect by the damping parameter. Second, with the aid of these analyses, the ZM method was evaluated based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of two fundamental liquid systems, a molten sodium-chlorine ion system and a pure water molecule system. In the ion system, the energy accuracy, compared with the Ewald summation, was better for a larger value of multipole moment l currently induced until l ≲ 3 on average. This accuracy improvement with increasing l is due to the enhancement of the excess-energy accuracy. However, this improvement is wholly effective in the total accuracy if the theoretical moment l is smaller than or equal to a system intrinsic moment L. The simulation results thus indicate L ˜ 3 in this system, and we observed less accuracy in l = 4. We demonstrated the origins of parameter dependencies appearing in the crossing behavior and the oscillations of the energy error curves. With raising the moment l we observed, smaller values of the damping parameter provided more accurate results and smoother behaviors with respect to cutoff length were obtained. These features can be explained, on the basis of the theoretical error analyses, such that the excess energy accuracy is improved with increasing l and that the total accuracy improvement within l ⩽ L is facilitated by a small damping parameter. Although the accuracy was fundamentally similar to the ion system, the bulk water system exhibited distinguishable quantitative behaviors. A smaller damping parameter was effective in all the practical cutoff distance, and this fact can be interpreted by the reduction of the excess subset. A lower moment was advantageous in the energy accuracy, where l = 1 was slightly superior to l = 2 in this system. However, the method with l = 2 (viz., the zero-quadrupole sum) gave accurate results for the radial distribution function. We confirmed the stability in the numerical integration for MD simulations employing the ZM scheme. This result is supported by the sufficient smoothness of the energy function. Along with the smoothness, the pairwise feature and the allowance of the atom-based cutoff mode on the energy formula lead to the exact zero total-force, ensuring the total-momentum conservations for typical MD equations of motion.

Probability of Detection of Genotyping Errors and Mutations as Inheritance Inconsistencies in Nuclear-Family Data

PubMed Central

Douglas, Julie A.; Skol, Andrew D.; Boehnke, Michael

2002-01-01

Gene-mapping studies routinely rely on checking for Mendelian transmission of marker alleles in a pedigree, as a means of screening for genotyping errors and mutations, with the implicit assumption that, if a pedigree is consistent with Mendel’s laws of inheritance, then there are no genotyping errors. However, the occurrence of inheritance inconsistencies alone is an inadequate measure of the number of genotyping errors, since the rate of occurrence depends on the number and relationships of genotyped pedigree members, the type of errors, and the distribution of marker-allele frequencies. In this article, we calculate the expected probability of detection of a genotyping error or mutation as an inheritance inconsistency in nuclear-family data, as a function of both the number of genotyped parents and offspring and the marker-allele frequency distribution. Through computer simulation, we explore the sensitivity of our analytic calculations to the underlying error model. Under a random-allele–error model, we find that detection rates are 51%–77% for multiallelic markers and 13%–75% for biallelic markers; detection rates are generally lower when the error occurs in a parent than in an offspring, unless a large number of offspring are genotyped. Errors are especially difficult to detect for biallelic markers with equally frequent alleles, even when both parents are genotyped; in this case, the maximum detection rate is 34% for four-person nuclear families. Error detection in families in which parents are not genotyped is limited, even with multiallelic markers. Given these results, we recommend that additional error checking (e.g., on the basis of multipoint analysis) be performed, beyond routine checking for Mendelian consistency. Furthermore, our results permit assessment of the plausibility of an observed number of inheritance inconsistencies for a family, allowing the detection of likely pedigree—rather than genotyping—errors in the early stages of a genome scan. Such early assessments are valuable in either the targeting of families for resampling or discontinued genotyping. PMID:11791214

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

PubMed Central

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

Some current theories of probabilistic categorization assume that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report two probabilistic-categorization experiments that investigated error discounting by shifting feedback probabilities to new values after different amounts of training. In both experiments, responding gradually became less responsive to errors, and learning was slowed for some time after the feedback shift. Both results are indicative of error discounting. Quantitative modeling of the data revealed that adding a mechanism for error discounting significantly improved the fits of an exemplar-based and a rule-based associative learning model, as well as of a recency-based model of categorization. We conclude that error discounting is an important component of probabilistic learning. PMID:21355666

Multipole Algorithms for Molecular Dynamics Simulation on High Performance Computers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elliott, William Dewey

1995-01-01

A fundamental problem in modeling large molecular systems with molecular dynamics (MD) simulations is the underlying N-body problem of computing the interactions between all pairs of N atoms. The simplest algorithm to compute pair-wise atomic interactions scales in runtime {cal O}(N^2), making it impractical for interesting biomolecular systems, which can contain millions of atoms. Recently, several algorithms have become available that solve the N-body problem by computing the effects of all pair-wise interactions while scaling in runtime less than {cal O}(N^2). One algorithm, which scales {cal O}(N) for a uniform distribution of particles, is called the Greengard-Rokhlin Fast Multipole Algorithm (FMA). This work describes an FMA-like algorithm called the Molecular Dynamics Multipole Algorithm (MDMA). The algorithm contains several features that are new to N-body algorithms. MDMA uses new, efficient series expansion equations to compute general 1/r^{n } potentials to arbitrary accuracy. In particular, the 1/r Coulomb potential and the 1/r^6 portion of the Lennard-Jones potential are implemented. The new equations are based on multivariate Taylor series expansions. In addition, MDMA uses a cell-to-cell interaction region of cells that is closely tied to worst case error bounds. The worst case error bounds for MDMA are derived in this work also. These bounds apply to other multipole algorithms as well. Several implementation enhancements are described which apply to MDMA as well as other N-body algorithms such as FMA and tree codes. The mathematics of the cell -to-cell interactions are converted to the Fourier domain for reduced operation count and faster computation. A relative indexing scheme was devised to locate cells in the interaction region which allows efficient pre-computation of redundant information and prestorage of much of the cell-to-cell interaction. Also, MDMA was integrated into the MD program SIgMA to demonstrate the performance of the program over several simulation timesteps. One MD application described here highlights the utility of including long range contributions to Lennard-Jones potential in constant pressure simulations. Another application shows the time dependence of long range forces in a multiple time step MD simulation.

Modeling of a bubble-memory organization with self-checking translators to achieve high reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouricius, W. G.; Carter, W. C.; Hsieh, E. P.; Wadia, A. B.; Jessep, D. C., Jr.

1973-01-01

Study of the design and modeling of a highly reliable bubble-memory system that has the capabilities of: (1) correcting a single 16-adjacent bit-group error resulting from failures in a single basic storage module (BSM), and (2) detecting with a probability greater than 0.99 any double errors resulting from failures in BSM's. The results of the study justify the design philosophy adopted of employing memory data encoding and a translator to correct single group errors and detect double group errors to enhance the overall system reliability.

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, David A.W.; Weir, Linda A.; McClintock, Brett T.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Bailey, Larissa L.; Simons, Theodore R.

2012-01-01

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, that recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI: -46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%; -3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently, but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.

Measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with source state errors and statistical fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Yu, Zong-Wen; Wang, Xiang-Bin

2017-03-01

We show how to calculate the secure final key rate in the four-intensity decoy-state measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution protocol with both source errors and statistical fluctuations with a certain failure probability. Our results rely only on the range of only a few parameters in the source state. All imperfections in this protocol have been taken into consideration without assuming any specific error patterns of the source.

A cascaded coding scheme for error control and its performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Kasami, Tadao; Fujiwara, Tohru; Takata, Toyoo

1986-01-01

A coding scheme is investigated for error control in data communication systems. The scheme is obtained by cascading two error correcting codes, called the inner and outer codes. The error performance of the scheme is analyzed for a binary symmetric channel with bit error rate epsilon <1/2. It is shown that if the inner and outer codes are chosen properly, extremely high reliability can be attained even for a high channel bit error rate. Various specific example schemes with inner codes ranging form high rates to very low rates and Reed-Solomon codes as inner codes are considered, and their error probabilities are evaluated. They all provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit error rates. Several example schemes are being considered by NASA for satellite and spacecraft down link error control.

Asymmetries in Predictive and Diagnostic Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fernbach, Philip M.; Darlow, Adam; Sloman, Steven A.

2011-01-01

In this article, we address the apparent discrepancy between causal Bayes net theories of cognition, which posit that judgments of uncertainty are generated from causal beliefs in a way that respects the norms of probability, and evidence that probability judgments based on causal beliefs are systematically in error. One purported source of bias…

Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, Mark; Bresina, John L.

1990-01-01

A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

Bounds on Block Error Probability for Multilevel Concatenated Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Moorthy, Hari T.; Stojanovic, Diana

1996-01-01

Maximum likelihood decoding of long block codes is not feasable due to large complexity. Some classes of codes are shown to be decomposable into multilevel concatenated codes (MLCC). For these codes, multistage decoding provides good trade-off between performance and complexity. In this paper, we derive an upper bound on the probability of block error for MLCC. We use this bound to evaluate difference in performance for different decompositions of some codes. Examples given show that a significant reduction in complexity can be achieved when increasing number of stages of decoding. Resulting performance degradation varies for different decompositions. A guideline is given for finding good m-level decompositions.

Performance of DPSK with convolutional encoding on time-varying fading channels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mui, S. Y.; Modestino, J. W.

1977-01-01

The bit error probability performance of a differentially-coherent phase-shift keyed (DPSK) modem with convolutional encoding and Viterbi decoding on time-varying fading channels is examined. Both the Rician and the lognormal channels are considered. Bit error probability upper bounds on fully-interleaved (zero-memory) fading channels are derived and substantiated by computer simulation. It is shown that the resulting coded system performance is a relatively insensitive function of the choice of channel model provided that the channel parameters are related according to the correspondence developed as part of this paper. Finally, a comparison of DPSK with a number of other modulation strategies is provided.

Exploiting Outage and Error Probability of Cooperative Incremental Relaying in Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Nasir, Hina; Javaid, Nadeem; Sher, Muhammad; Qasim, Umar; Khan, Zahoor Ali; Alrajeh, Nabil; Niaz, Iftikhar Azim

2016-01-01

This paper embeds a bi-fold contribution for Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks (UWSNs); performance analysis of incremental relaying in terms of outage and error probability, and based on the analysis proposition of two new cooperative routing protocols. Subject to the first contribution, a three step procedure is carried out; a system model is presented, the number of available relays are determined, and based on cooperative incremental retransmission methodology, closed-form expressions for outage and error probability are derived. Subject to the second contribution, Adaptive Cooperation in Energy (ACE) efficient depth based routing and Enhanced-ACE (E-ACE) are presented. In the proposed model, feedback mechanism indicates success or failure of data transmission. If direct transmission is successful, there is no need for relaying by cooperative relay nodes. In case of failure, all the available relays retransmit the data one by one till the desired signal quality is achieved at destination. Simulation results show that the ACE and E-ACE significantly improves network performance, i.e., throughput, when compared with other incremental relaying protocols like Cooperative Automatic Repeat reQuest (CARQ). E-ACE and ACE achieve 69% and 63% more throughput respectively as compared to CARQ in hard underwater environment. PMID:27420061

Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions.

PubMed

Potter, Gail E; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin

2015-09-01

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0-5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models.

Modeling workplace contact networks: The effects of organizational structure, architecture, and reporting errors on epidemic predictions

PubMed Central

Potter, Gail E.; Smieszek, Timo; Sailer, Kerstin

2015-01-01

Face-to-face social contacts are potentially important transmission routes for acute respiratory infections, and understanding the contact network can improve our ability to predict, contain, and control epidemics. Although workplaces are important settings for infectious disease transmission, few studies have collected workplace contact data and estimated workplace contact networks. We use contact diaries, architectural distance measures, and institutional structures to estimate social contact networks within a Swiss research institute. Some contact reports were inconsistent, indicating reporting errors. We adjust for this with a latent variable model, jointly estimating the true (unobserved) network of contacts and duration-specific reporting probabilities. We find that contact probability decreases with distance, and that research group membership, role, and shared projects are strongly predictive of contact patterns. Estimated reporting probabilities were low only for 0–5 min contacts. Adjusting for reporting error changed the estimate of the duration distribution, but did not change the estimates of covariate effects and had little effect on epidemic predictions. Our epidemic simulation study indicates that inclusion of network structure based on architectural and organizational structure data can improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting models. PMID:26634122

Asymmetric soft-error resistant memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, Martin G. (Inventor); Perlman, Marvin (Inventor)

1991-01-01

A memory system is provided, of the type that includes an error-correcting circuit that detects and corrects, that more efficiently utilizes the capacity of a memory formed of groups of binary cells whose states can be inadvertently switched by ionizing radiation. Each memory cell has an asymmetric geometry, so that ionizing radiation causes a significantly greater probability of errors in one state than in the opposite state (e.g., an erroneous switch from '1' to '0' is far more likely than a switch from '0' to'1'. An asymmetric error correcting coding circuit can be used with the asymmetric memory cells, which requires fewer bits than an efficient symmetric error correcting code.

Discrimination of binary coherent states using a homodyne detector and a photon number resolving detector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittmann, Christoffer; Sych, Denis; Leuchs, Gerd

2010-06-15

We investigate quantum measurement strategies capable of discriminating two coherent states probabilistically with significantly smaller error probabilities than can be obtained using nonprobabilistic state discrimination. We apply a postselection strategy to the measurement data of a homodyne detector as well as a photon number resolving detector in order to lower the error probability. We compare the two different receivers with an optimal intermediate measurement scheme where the error rate is minimized for a fixed rate of inconclusive results. The photon number resolving (PNR) receiver is experimentally demonstrated and compared to an experimental realization of a homodyne receiver with postselection. Inmore » the comparison, it becomes clear that the performance of the PNR receiver surpasses the performance of the homodyne receiver, which we prove to be optimal within any Gaussian operations and conditional dynamics.« less

The genomic structure: proof of the role of non-coding DNA.

PubMed

Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Schonfeld, Dan

2006-01-01

We prove that the introns play the role of a decoy in absorbing mutations in the same way hollow uninhabited structures are used by the military to protect important installations. Our approach is based on a probability of error analysis, where errors are mutations which occur in the exon sequences. We derive the optimal exon length distribution, which minimizes the probability of error in the genome. Furthermore, to understand how can Nature generate the optimal distribution, we propose a diffusive random walk model for exon generation throughout evolution. This model results in an alpha stable exon length distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to the optimal distribution. Experimental results show that both distributions accurately fit the real data. Given that introns also drive biological evolution by increasing the rate of unequal crossover between genes, we conclude that the role of introns is to maintain a genius balance between stability and adaptability in eukaryotic genomes.

Peelle's pertinent puzzle using the Monte Carlo technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kawano, Toshihiko; Talou, Patrick; Burr, Thomas

2009-01-01

We try to understand the long-standing problem of the Peelle's Pertinent Puzzle (PPP) using the Monte Carlo technique. We allow the probability density functions to be any kind of form to assume the impact of distribution, and obtain the least-squares solution directly from numerical simulations. We found that the standard least squares method gives the correct answer if a weighting function is properly provided. Results from numerical simulations show that the correct answer of PPP is 1.1 {+-} 0.25 if the common error is multiplicative. The thought-provoking answer of 0.88 is also correct, if the common error is additive, andmore » if the error is proportional to the measured values. The least squares method correctly gives us the most probable case, where the additive component has a negative value. Finally, the standard method fails for PPP due to a distorted (non Gaussian) joint distribution.« less

Driver landmark and traffic sign identification in early Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Uc, E Y; Rizzo, M; Anderson, S W; Shi, Q; Dawson, J D

2005-06-01

To assess visual search and recognition of roadside targets and safety errors during a landmark and traffic sign identification task in drivers with Alzheimer's disease. 33 drivers with probable Alzheimer's disease of mild severity and 137 neurologically normal older adults underwent a battery of visual and cognitive tests and were asked to report detection of specific landmarks and traffic signs along a segment of an experimental drive. The drivers with mild Alzheimer's disease identified significantly fewer landmarks and traffic signs and made more at-fault safety errors during the task than control subjects. Roadside target identification performance and safety errors were predicted by scores on standardised tests of visual and cognitive function. Drivers with Alzheimer's disease are impaired in a task of visual search and recognition of roadside targets; the demands of these targets on visual perception, attention, executive functions, and memory probably increase the cognitive load, worsening driving safety.

Non-pairwise additivity of the leading-order dispersion energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hollett, Joshua W., E-mail: j.hollett@uwinnipeg.ca

2015-02-28

The leading-order (i.e., dipole-dipole) dispersion energy is calculated for one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) infinite lattices, and an infinite 1D array of infinitely long lines, of doubly occupied locally harmonic wells. The dispersion energy is decomposed into pairwise and non-pairwise additive components. By varying the force constant and separation of the wells, the non-pairwise additive contribution to the dispersion energy is shown to depend on the overlap of density between neighboring wells. As well separation is increased, the non-pairwise additivity of the dispersion energy decays. The different rates of decay for 1D and 2D lattices of wells is explained inmore » terms of a Jacobian effect that influences the number of nearest neighbors. For an array of infinitely long lines of wells spaced 5 bohrs apart, and an inter-well spacing of 3 bohrs within a line, the non-pairwise additive component of the leading-order dispersion energy is −0.11 kJ mol{sup −1} well{sup −1}, which is 7% of the total. The polarizability of the wells and the density overlap between them are small in comparison to that of the atomic densities that arise from the molecular density partitioning used in post-density-functional theory (DFT) damped dispersion corrections, or DFT-D methods. Therefore, the nonadditivity of the leading-order dispersion observed here is a conservative estimate of that in molecular clusters.« less

29 CFR 18.103 - Rulings on evidence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... is more probably true than not true that the error did not materially contribute to the decision or... if explicitly not relied upon by the judge in support of the decision or order. (b) Record of offer... making of an offer in question and answer form. (c) Plain error. Nothing in this rule precludes taking...

Student Distractor Choices on the Mathematics Virginia Standards of Learning Middle School Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Virginia Vimpeny

2011-01-01

Number Concepts; Measurement; Geometry; Probability; Statistics; and Patterns, Functions and Algebra. Procedural Errors were further categorized into the following content categories: Computation; Measurement; Statistics; and Patterns, Functions, and Algebra. The results of the analysis showed the main sources of error for 6th, 7th, and 8th…

A Generalized Process Model of Human Action Selection and Error and its Application to Error Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

Macmillan & Creelman , 2005). This is a quite high degree of discriminability and it means that when the decision model predicts a probability of...ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, 27(8), 861-874. Retrieved from Google Scholar. Macmillan, N. A., & Creelman , C. D. (2005). Detection

Rewriting Evolution—“Been There, Done That”

PubMed Central

Penny, David

2013-01-01

A recent paper by a science journalist in Nature shows major errors in understanding phylogenies, in this case of placental mammals. The underlying unrooted tree is probably correct, but the placement of the root just reflects a well-known error from the acceleration in the rate of evolution among some myomorph rodents. PMID:23558594

Dosimetric effects of patient rotational setup errors on prostate IMRT treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Weihua; Yang, Yong; Li, Xiang; Heron, Dwight E.; Saiful Huq, M.; Yue, Ning J.

2006-10-01

The purpose of this work is to determine dose delivery errors that could result from systematic rotational setup errors (ΔΦ) for prostate cancer patients treated with three-phase sequential boost IMRT. In order to implement this, different rotational setup errors around three Cartesian axes were simulated for five prostate patients and dosimetric indices, such as dose-volume histogram (DVH), tumour control probability (TCP), normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and equivalent uniform dose (EUD), were employed to evaluate the corresponding dosimetric influences. Rotational setup errors were simulated by adjusting the gantry, collimator and horizontal couch angles of treatment beams and the dosimetric effects were evaluated by recomputing the dose distributions in the treatment planning system. Our results indicated that, for prostate cancer treatment with the three-phase sequential boost IMRT technique, the rotational setup errors do not have significant dosimetric impacts on the cumulative plan. Even in the worst-case scenario with ΔΦ = 3°, the prostate EUD varied within 1.5% and TCP decreased about 1%. For seminal vesicle, slightly larger influences were observed. However, EUD and TCP changes were still within 2%. The influence on sensitive structures, such as rectum and bladder, is also negligible. This study demonstrates that the rotational setup error degrades the dosimetric coverage of target volume in prostate cancer treatment to a certain degree. However, the degradation was not significant for the three-phase sequential boost prostate IMRT technique and for the margin sizes used in our institution.

An MEG signature corresponding to an axiomatic model of reward prediction error.

PubMed

Talmi, Deborah; Fuentemilla, Lluis; Litvak, Vladimir; Duzel, Emrah; Dolan, Raymond J

2012-01-02

Optimal decision-making is guided by evaluating the outcomes of previous decisions. Prediction errors are theoretical teaching signals which integrate two features of an outcome: its inherent value and prior expectation of its occurrence. To uncover the magnetic signature of prediction errors in the human brain we acquired magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while participants performed a gambling task. Our primary objective was to use formal criteria, based upon an axiomatic model (Caplin and Dean, 2008a), to determine the presence and timing profile of MEG signals that express prediction errors. We report analyses at the sensor level, implemented in SPM8, time locked to outcome onset. We identified, for the first time, a MEG signature of prediction error, which emerged approximately 320 ms after an outcome and expressed as an interaction between outcome valence and probability. This signal followed earlier, separate signals for outcome valence and probability, which emerged approximately 200 ms after an outcome. Strikingly, the time course of the prediction error signal, as well as the early valence signal, resembled the Feedback-Related Negativity (FRN). In simultaneously acquired EEG data we obtained a robust FRN, but the win and loss signals that comprised this difference wave did not comply with the axiomatic model. Our findings motivate an explicit examination of the critical issue of timing embodied in computational models of prediction errors as seen in human electrophysiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type.

PubMed

Wedell, Douglas H; Moro, Rodrigo

2008-04-01

Two experiments used within-subject designs to examine how conjunction errors depend on the use of (1) choice versus estimation tasks, (2) probability versus frequency language, and (3) conjunctions of two likely events versus conjunctions of likely and unlikely events. All problems included a three-option format verified to minimize misinterpretation of the base event. In both experiments, conjunction errors were reduced when likely events were conjoined. Conjunction errors were also reduced for estimations compared with choices, with this reduction greater for likely conjuncts, an interaction effect. Shifting conceptual focus from probabilities to frequencies did not affect conjunction error rates. Analyses of numerical estimates for a subset of the problems provided support for the use of three general models by participants for generating estimates. Strikingly, the order in which the two tasks were carried out did not affect the pattern of results, supporting the idea that the mode of responding strongly determines the mode of thinking about conjunctions and hence the occurrence of the conjunction fallacy. These findings were evaluated in terms of implications for rationality of human judgment and reasoning.

A Probabilistic, Facility-Centric Approach to Lightning Strike Location

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddleston, Lisa L.; Roeder, William p.; Merceret, Francis J.

2012-01-01

A new probabilistic facility-centric approach to lightning strike location has been developed. This process uses the bivariate Gaussian distribution of probability density provided by the current lightning location error ellipse for the most likely location of a lightning stroke and integrates it to determine the probability that the stroke is inside any specified radius of any location, even if that location is not centered on or even with the location error ellipse. This technique is adapted from a method of calculating the probability of debris collisionith spacecraft. Such a technique is important in spaceport processing activities because it allows engineers to quantify the risk of induced current damage to critical electronics due to nearby lightning strokes. This technique was tested extensively and is now in use by space launch organizations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Future applications could include forensic meteorology.

Maximum likelihood estimation of label imperfections and its use in the identification of mislabeled patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

The problem of estimating label imperfections and the use of the estimation in identifying mislabeled patterns is presented. Expressions for the maximum likelihood estimates of classification errors and a priori probabilities are derived from the classification of a set of labeled patterns. Expressions also are given for the asymptotic variances of probability of correct classification and proportions. Simple models are developed for imperfections in the labels and for classification errors and are used in the formulation of a maximum likelihood estimation scheme. Schemes are presented for the identification of mislabeled patterns in terms of threshold on the discriminant functions for both two-class and multiclass cases. Expressions are derived for the probability that the imperfect label identification scheme will result in a wrong decision and are used in computing thresholds. The results of practical applications of these techniques in the processing of remotely sensed multispectral data are presented.

Qualitative fusion technique based on information poor system and its application to factor analysis for vibration of rolling bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Xintao; Wang, Zhongyu

2008-10-01

For some methods of stability analysis of a system using statistics, it is difficult to resolve the problems of unknown probability distribution and small sample. Therefore, a novel method is proposed in this paper to resolve these problems. This method is independent of probability distribution, and is useful for small sample systems. After rearrangement of the original data series, the order difference and two polynomial membership functions are introduced to estimate the true value, the lower bound and the supper bound of the system using fuzzy-set theory. Then empirical distribution function is investigated to ensure confidence level above 95%, and the degree of similarity is presented to evaluate stability of the system. Cases of computer simulation investigate stable systems with various probability distribution, unstable systems with linear systematic errors and periodic systematic errors and some mixed systems. The method of analysis for systematic stability is approved.

High-throughput determination of RNA structure by proximity ligation.

PubMed

Ramani, Vijay; Qiu, Ruolan; Shendure, Jay

2015-09-01

We present an unbiased method to globally resolve RNA structures through pairwise contact measurements between interacting regions. RNA proximity ligation (RPL) uses proximity ligation of native RNA followed by deep sequencing to yield chimeric reads with ligation junctions in the vicinity of structurally proximate bases. We apply RPL in both baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) and human cells and generate contact probability maps for ribosomal and other abundant RNAs, including yeast snoRNAs, the RNA subunit of the signal recognition particle and the yeast U2 spliceosomal RNA homolog. RPL measurements correlate with established secondary structures for these RNA molecules, including stem-loop structures and long-range pseudoknots. We anticipate that RPL will complement the current repertoire of computational and experimental approaches in enabling the high-throughput determination of secondary and tertiary RNA structures.

A Single Camera Motion Capture System for Human-Computer Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okada, Ryuzo; Stenger, Björn

This paper presents a method for markerless human motion capture using a single camera. It uses tree-based filtering to efficiently propagate a probability distribution over poses of a 3D body model. The pose vectors and associated shapes are arranged in a tree, which is constructed by hierarchical pairwise clustering, in order to efficiently evaluate the likelihood in each frame. Anew likelihood function based on silhouette matching is proposed that improves the pose estimation of thinner body parts, i. e. the limbs. The dynamic model takes self-occlusion into account by increasing the variance of occluded body-parts, thus allowing for recovery when the body part reappears. We present two applications of our method that work in real-time on a Cell Broadband Engine™: a computer game and a virtual clothing application.

Identification of forgeries in handwritten petitions for ballot propositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srihari, Sargur; Ramakrishnan, Veshnu; Malgireddy, Manavender; Ball, Gregory R.

2009-01-01

Many governments have some form of "direct democracy" legislation procedure whereby individual citizens can propose various measures creating or altering laws. Generally, such a process is started with the gathering of a large number of signatures. There is interest in whether or not there are fraudulent signatures present in such a petition, and if so what percentage of the signatures are indeed fraudulent. However, due to the large number of signatures (tens of thousands), it is not feasible to have a document examiner verify the signatures directly. Instead, there is interest in creating a subset of signatures where there is a high probability of fraud that can be verified. We present a method by which a pairwise comparison of signatures can be performed and subsequent sorting can generate such subsets.

A comparative study for chest radiograph image retrieval using binary texture and deep learning classification.

PubMed

Anavi, Yaron; Kogan, Ilya; Gelbart, Elad; Geva, Ofer; Greenspan, Hayit

2015-08-01

In this work various approaches are investigated for X-ray image retrieval and specifically chest pathology retrieval. Given a query image taken from a data set of 443 images, the objective is to rank images according to similarity. Different features, including binary features, texture features, and deep learning (CNN) features are examined. In addition, two approaches are investigated for the retrieval task. One approach is based on the distance of image descriptors using the above features (hereon termed the "descriptor"-based approach); the second approach ("classification"-based approach) is based on a probability descriptor, generated by a pair-wise classification of each two classes (pathologies) and their decision values using an SVM classifier. Best results are achieved using deep learning features in a classification scheme.

Using the principle of entropy maximization to infer genetic interaction networks from gene expression patterns.

PubMed

Lezon, Timothy R; Banavar, Jayanth R; Cieplak, Marek; Maritan, Amos; Fedoroff, Nina V

2006-12-12

We describe a method based on the principle of entropy maximization to identify the gene interaction network with the highest probability of giving rise to experimentally observed transcript profiles. In its simplest form, the method yields the pairwise gene interaction network, but it can also be extended to deduce higher-order interactions. Analysis of microarray data from genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae chemostat cultures exhibiting energy metabolic oscillations identifies a gene interaction network that reflects the intracellular communication pathways that adjust cellular metabolic activity and cell division to the limiting nutrient conditions that trigger metabolic oscillations. The success of the present approach in extracting meaningful genetic connections suggests that the maximum entropy principle is a useful concept for understanding living systems, as it is for other complex, nonequilibrium systems.

Clinical implementation and failure mode and effects analysis of HDR skin brachytherapy using Valencia and Leipzig surface applicators.

PubMed

Sayler, Elaine; Eldredge-Hindy, Harriet; Dinome, Jessie; Lockamy, Virginia; Harrison, Amy S

2015-01-01

The planning procedure for Valencia and Leipzig surface applicators (VLSAs) (Nucletron, Veenendaal, The Netherlands) differs substantially from CT-based planning; the unfamiliarity could lead to significant errors. This study applies failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to high-dose-rate (HDR) skin brachytherapy using VLSAs to ensure safety and quality. A multidisciplinary team created a protocol for HDR VLSA skin treatments and applied FMEA. Failure modes were identified and scored by severity, occurrence, and detectability. The clinical procedure was then revised to address high-scoring process nodes. Several key components were added to the protocol to minimize risk probability numbers. (1) Diagnosis, prescription, applicator selection, and setup are reviewed at weekly quality assurance rounds. Peer review reduces the likelihood of an inappropriate treatment regime. (2) A template for HDR skin treatments was established in the clinic's electronic medical record system to standardize treatment instructions. This reduces the chances of miscommunication between the physician and planner as well as increases the detectability of an error. (3) A screen check was implemented during the second check to increase detectability of an error. (4) To reduce error probability, the treatment plan worksheet was designed to display plan parameters in a format visually similar to the treatment console display, facilitating data entry and verification. (5) VLSAs are color coded and labeled to match the electronic medical record prescriptions, simplifying in-room selection and verification. Multidisciplinary planning and FMEA increased detectability and reduced error probability during VLSA HDR brachytherapy. This clinical model may be useful to institutions implementing similar procedures. Copyright © 2015 American Brachytherapy Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resampling-Based Empirical Bayes Multiple Testing Procedures for Controlling Generalized Tail Probability and Expected Value Error Rates: Focus on the False Discovery Rate and Simulation Study

PubMed Central

Dudoit, Sandrine; Gilbert, Houston N.; van der Laan, Mark J.

2014-01-01

Summary This article proposes resampling-based empirical Bayes multiple testing procedures for controlling a broad class of Type I error rates, defined as generalized tail probability (gTP) error rates, gTP(q, g) = Pr(g(Vn, Sn) > q), and generalized expected value (gEV) error rates, gEV(g) = E[g(Vn, Sn)], for arbitrary functions g(Vn, Sn) of the numbers of false positives Vn and true positives Sn. Of particular interest are error rates based on the proportion g(Vn, Sn) = Vn/(Vn + Sn) of Type I errors among the rejected hypotheses, such as the false discovery rate (FDR), FDR = E[Vn/(Vn + Sn)]. The proposed procedures offer several advantages over existing methods. They provide Type I error control for general data generating distributions, with arbitrary dependence structures among variables. Gains in power are achieved by deriving rejection regions based on guessed sets of true null hypotheses and null test statistics randomly sampled from joint distributions that account for the dependence structure of the data. The Type I error and power properties of an FDR-controlling version of the resampling-based empirical Bayes approach are investigated and compared to those of widely-used FDR-controlling linear step-up procedures in a simulation study. The Type I error and power trade-off achieved by the empirical Bayes procedures under a variety of testing scenarios allows this approach to be competitive with or outperform the Storey and Tibshirani (2003) linear step-up procedure, as an alternative to the classical Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) procedure. PMID:18932138

Intransitivity is infrequent and fails to promote annual plant coexistence without pairwise niche differences.

PubMed

Godoy, Oscar; Stouffer, Daniel B; Kraft, Nathan J B; Levine, Jonathan M

2017-05-01

Intransitive competition is often projected to be a widespread mechanism of species coexistence in ecological communities. However, it is unknown how much of the coexistence we observe in nature results from this mechanism when species interactions are also stabilized by pairwise niche differences. We combined field-parameterized models of competition among 18 annual plant species with tools from network theory to quantify the prevalence of intransitive competitive relationships. We then analyzed the predicted outcome of competitive interactions with and without pairwise niche differences. Intransitive competition was found for just 15-19% of the 816 possible triplets, and this mechanism was never sufficient to stabilize the coexistence of the triplet when the pair-wise niche differences between competitors were removed. Of the transitive and intransitive triplets, only four were predicted to coexist and these were more similar in multidimensional trait space defined by 11 functional traits than non-coexisting triplets. Our results argue that intransitive competition may be less frequent than recently posed, and that even when it does operate, pairwise niche differences may be key to possible coexistence. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamics of pairwise motions in the Cosmic Web

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hellwing, Wojciech A.

2016-10-01

We present results of analysis of the dark matter (DM) pairwise velocity statistics in different Cosmic Web environments. We use the DM velocity and density field from the Millennium 2 simulation together with the NEXUS+ algorithm to segment the simulation volume into voxels uniquely identifying one of the four possible environments: nodes, filaments, walls or cosmic voids. We show that the PDFs of the mean infall velocities v 12 as well as its spatial dependence together with the perpendicular and parallel velocity dispersions bear a significant signal of the large-scale structure environment in which DM particle pairs are embedded. The pairwise flows are notably colder and have smaller mean magnitude in wall and voids, when compared to much denser environments of filaments and nodes. We discuss on our results, indicating that they are consistent with a simple theoretical predictions for pairwise motions as induced by gravitational instability mechanism. Our results indicate that the Cosmic Web elements are coherent dynamical entities rather than just temporal geometrical associations. In addition it should be possible to observationally test various Cosmic Web finding algorithms by segmenting available peculiar velocity data and studying resulting pairwise velocity statistics.

Field evaluation of distance-estimation error during wetland-dependent bird surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Conway, Courtney J.

2012-01-01

Context: The most common methods to estimate detection probability during avian point-count surveys involve recording a distance between the survey point and individual birds detected during the survey period. Accurately measuring or estimating distance is an important assumption of these methods; however, this assumption is rarely tested in the context of aural avian point-count surveys. Aims: We expand on recent bird-simulation studies to document the error associated with estimating distance to calling birds in a wetland ecosystem. Methods: We used two approaches to estimate the error associated with five surveyor's distance estimates between the survey point and calling birds, and to determine the factors that affect a surveyor's ability to estimate distance. Key results: We observed biased and imprecise distance estimates when estimating distance to simulated birds in a point-count scenario (x̄error = -9 m, s.d.error = 47 m) and when estimating distances to real birds during field trials (x̄error = 39 m, s.d.error = 79 m). The amount of bias and precision in distance estimates differed among surveyors; surveyors with more training and experience were less biased and more precise when estimating distance to both real and simulated birds. Three environmental factors were important in explaining the error associated with distance estimates, including the measured distance from the bird to the surveyor, the volume of the call and the species of bird. Surveyors tended to make large overestimations to birds close to the survey point, which is an especially serious error in distance sampling. Conclusions: Our results suggest that distance-estimation error is prevalent, but surveyor training may be the easiest way to reduce distance-estimation error. Implications: The present study has demonstrated how relatively simple field trials can be used to estimate the error associated with distance estimates used to estimate detection probability during avian point-count surveys. Evaluating distance-estimation errors will allow investigators to better evaluate the accuracy of avian density and trend estimates. Moreover, investigators who evaluate distance-estimation errors could employ recently developed models to incorporate distance-estimation error into analyses. We encourage further development of such models, including the inclusion of such models into distance-analysis software.

A cascaded coding scheme for error control and its performance analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, S.

1986-01-01

A coding scheme for error control in data communication systems is investigated. The scheme is obtained by cascading two error correcting codes, called the inner and the outer codes. The error performance of the scheme is analyzed for a binary symmetric channel with bit error rate epsilon < 1/2. It is shown that, if the inner and outer codes are chosen properly, extremely high reliability can be attained even for a high channel bit error rate. Various specific example schemes with inner codes ranging from high rates to very low rates and Reed-Solomon codes are considered, and their probabilities are evaluated. They all provide extremely high reliability even for very high bit error rates, say 0.1 to 0.01. Several example schemes are being considered by NASA for satellite and spacecraft down link error control.

Obtaining tight bounds on higher-order interferences with a 5-path interferometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauten, Thomas; Keil, Robert; Kaufmann, Thomas; Pressl, Benedikt; Brukner, Časlav; Weihs, Gregor

2017-03-01

Within the established theoretical framework of quantum mechanics, interference always occurs between pairs of paths through an interferometer. Higher order interferences with multiple constituents are excluded by Born’s rule and can only exist in generalized probabilistic theories. Thus, high-precision experiments searching for such higher order interferences are a powerful method to distinguish between quantum mechanics and more general theories. Here, we perform such a test in an optical multi-path interferometer, which avoids crucial systematic errors, has access to the entire phase space and is more stable than previous experiments. Our results are in accordance with quantum mechanics and rule out the existence of higher order interference terms in optical interferometry to an extent that is more than four orders of magnitude smaller than the expected pairwise interference, refining previous bounds by two orders of magnitude.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Xin, E-mail: xinshih86029@gmail.com; Zhao, Xiangmo, E-mail: xinshih86029@gmail.com; Hui, Fei, E-mail: xinshih86029@gmail.com

Clock synchronization in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) has been studied extensively in recent years and many protocols are put forward based on the point of statistical signal processing, which is an effective way to optimize accuracy. However, the accuracy derived from the statistical data can be improved mainly by sufficient packets exchange, which will consume the limited power resources greatly. In this paper, a reliable clock estimation using linear weighted fusion based on pairwise broadcast synchronization is proposed to optimize sync accuracy without expending additional sync packets. As a contribution, a linear weighted fusion scheme for multiple clock deviations ismore » constructed with the collaborative sensing of clock timestamp. And the fusion weight is defined by the covariance of sync errors for different clock deviations. Extensive simulation results show that the proposed approach can achieve better performance in terms of sync overhead and sync accuracy.« less

Formal Verification of Air Traffic Conflict Prevention Bands Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narkawicz, Anthony J.; Munoz, Cesar A.; Dowek, Gilles

2010-01-01

In air traffic management, a pairwise conflict is a predicted loss of separation between two aircraft, referred to as the ownship and the intruder. A conflict prevention bands system computes ranges of maneuvers for the ownship that characterize regions in the airspace that are either conflict-free or 'don't go' zones that the ownship has to avoid. Conflict prevention bands are surprisingly difficult to define and analyze. Errors in the calculation of prevention bands may result in incorrect separation assurance information being displayed to pilots or air traffic controllers. This paper presents provably correct 3-dimensional prevention bands algorithms for ranges of track angle; ground speed, and vertical speed maneuvers. The algorithms have been mechanically verified in the Prototype Verification System (PVS). The verification presented in this paper extends in a non-trivial way that of previously published 2-dimensional algorithms.

Error quantification of osteometric data in forensic anthropology.

PubMed

Langley, Natalie R; Meadows Jantz, Lee; McNulty, Shauna; Maijanen, Heli; Ousley, Stephen D; Jantz, Richard L

2018-06-01

This study evaluates the reliability of osteometric data commonly used in forensic case analyses, with specific reference to the measurements in Data Collection Procedures 2.0 (DCP 2.0). Four observers took a set of 99 measurements four times on a sample of 50 skeletons (each measurement was taken 200 times by each observer). Two-way mixed ANOVAs and repeated measures ANOVAs with pairwise comparisons were used to examine interobserver (between-subjects) and intraobserver (within-subjects) variability. Relative technical error of measurement (TEM) was calculated for measurements with significant ANOVA results to examine the error among a single observer repeating a measurement multiple times (e.g. repeatability or intraobserver error), as well as the variability between multiple observers (interobserver error). Two general trends emerged from these analyses: (1) maximum lengths and breadths have the lowest error across the board (TEM<0.5), and (2) maximum and minimum diameters at midshaft are more reliable than their positionally-dependent counterparts (i.e. sagittal, vertical, transverse, dorso-volar). Therefore, maxima and minima are specified for all midshaft measurements in DCP 2.0. Twenty-two measurements were flagged for excessive variability (either interobserver, intraobserver, or both); 15 of these measurements were part of the standard set of measurements in Data Collection Procedures for Forensic Skeletal Material, 3rd edition. Each measurement was examined carefully to determine the likely source of the error (e.g. data input, instrumentation, observer's method, or measurement definition). For several measurements (e.g. anterior sacral breadth, distal epiphyseal breadth of the tibia) only one observer differed significantly from the remaining observers, indicating a likely problem with the measurement definition as interpreted by that observer; these definitions were clarified in DCP 2.0 to eliminate this confusion. Other measurements were taken from landmarks that are difficult to locate consistently (e.g. pubis length, ischium length); these measurements were omitted from DCP 2.0. This manual is available for free download online (https://fac.utk.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/DCP20_webversion.pdf), along with an accompanying instructional video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtkLFl3vim4). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment and quantification of patient set-up errors in nasopharyngeal cancer patients and their biological and dosimetric impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD), tumour control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP)

PubMed Central

Marcie, S; Fellah, M; Chami, S; Mekki, F

2015-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to assess and quantify patients' set-up errors using an electronic portal imaging device and to evaluate their dosimetric and biological impact in terms of generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) on predictive models, such as the tumour control probability (TCP) and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Methods: 20 patients treated for nasopharyngeal cancer were enrolled in the radiotherapy–oncology department of HCA. Systematic and random errors were quantified. The dosimetric and biological impact of these set-up errors on the target volume and the organ at risk (OARs) coverage were assessed using calculation of dose–volume histogram, gEUD, TCP and NTCP. For this purpose, an in-house software was developed and used. Results: The standard deviations (1SDs) of the systematic set-up and random set-up errors were calculated for the lateral and subclavicular fields and gave the following results: ∑ = 0.63 ± (0.42) mm and σ = 3.75 ± (0.79) mm, respectively. Thus a planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margin of 3 mm was defined around the OARs, and a 5-mm margin used around the clinical target volume. The gEUD, TCP and NTCP calculations obtained with and without set-up errors have shown increased values for tumour, where ΔgEUD (tumour) = 1.94% Gy (p = 0.00721) and ΔTCP = 2.03%. The toxicity of OARs was quantified using gEUD and NTCP. The values of ΔgEUD (OARs) vary from 0.78% to 5.95% in the case of the brainstem and the optic chiasm, respectively. The corresponding ΔNTCP varies from 0.15% to 0.53%, respectively. Conclusion: The quantification of set-up errors has a dosimetric and biological impact on the tumour and on the OARs. The developed in-house software using the concept of gEUD, TCP and NTCP biological models has been successfully used in this study. It can be used also to optimize the treatment plan established for our patients. Advances in knowledge: The gEUD, TCP and NTCP may be more suitable tools to assess the treatment plans before treating the patients. PMID:25882689

Personnel reliability impact on petrochemical facilities monitoring system's failure skipping probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.

2017-08-01

The paper dwells upon urgent issues of evaluating impact of actions conducted by complex technological systems operators on their safe operation considering application of condition monitoring systems for elements and sub-systems of petrochemical production facilities. The main task for the research is to distinguish factors and criteria of monitoring system properties description, which would allow to evaluate impact of errors made by personnel on operation of real-time condition monitoring and diagnostic systems for machinery of petrochemical facilities, and find and objective criteria for monitoring system class, considering a human factor. On the basis of real-time condition monitoring concepts of sudden failure skipping risk, static and dynamic error, monitoring systems, one may solve a task of evaluation of impact that personnel's qualification has on monitoring system operation in terms of error in personnel or operators' actions while receiving information from monitoring systems and operating a technological system. Operator is considered as a part of the technological system. Although, personnel's behavior is usually a combination of the following parameters: input signal - information perceiving, reaction - decision making, response - decision implementing. Based on several researches on behavior of nuclear powers station operators in USA, Italy and other countries, as well as on researches conducted by Russian scientists, required data on operator's reliability were selected for analysis of operator's behavior at technological facilities diagnostics and monitoring systems. The calculations revealed that for the monitoring system selected as an example, the failure skipping risk for the set values of static (less than 0.01) and dynamic (less than 0.001) errors considering all related factors of data on reliability of information perception, decision-making, and reaction fulfilled is 0.037, in case when all the facilities and error probability are under control - not more than 0.027. In case when only pump and compressor units are under control, the failure skipping risk is not more than 0.022, when the probability of error in operator's action is not more than 0.011. The work output shows that on the basis of the researches results an assessment of operators' reliability can be made in terms of almost any kind of production, but considering only technological capabilities, since operators' psychological and general training considerable vary in different production industries. Using latest technologies of engineering psychology and design of data support systems, situation assessment systems, decision-making and responding system, as well as achievement in condition monitoring in various production industries one can evaluate hazardous condition skipping risk probability considering static, dynamic errors and human factor.

Challenges in clinical natural language processing for automated disorder normalization.

PubMed

Leaman, Robert; Khare, Ritu; Lu, Zhiyong

2015-10-01

Identifying key variables such as disorders within the clinical narratives in electronic health records has wide-ranging applications within clinical practice and biomedical research. Previous research has demonstrated reduced performance of disorder named entity recognition (NER) and normalization (or grounding) in clinical narratives than in biomedical publications. In this work, we aim to identify the cause for this performance difference and introduce general solutions. We use closure properties to compare the richness of the vocabulary in clinical narrative text to biomedical publications. We approach both disorder NER and normalization using machine learning methodologies. Our NER methodology is based on linear-chain conditional random fields with a rich feature approach, and we introduce several improvements to enhance the lexical knowledge of the NER system. Our normalization method - never previously applied to clinical data - uses pairwise learning to rank to automatically learn term variation directly from the training data. We find that while the size of the overall vocabulary is similar between clinical narrative and biomedical publications, clinical narrative uses a richer terminology to describe disorders than publications. We apply our system, DNorm-C, to locate disorder mentions and in the clinical narratives from the recent ShARe/CLEF eHealth Task. For NER (strict span-only), our system achieves precision=0.797, recall=0.713, f-score=0.753. For the normalization task (strict span+concept) it achieves precision=0.712, recall=0.637, f-score=0.672. The improvements described in this article increase the NER f-score by 0.039 and the normalization f-score by 0.036. We also describe a high recall version of the NER, which increases the normalization recall to as high as 0.744, albeit with reduced precision. We perform an error analysis, demonstrating that NER errors outnumber normalization errors by more than 4-to-1. Abbreviations and acronyms are found to be frequent causes of error, in addition to the mentions the annotators were not able to identify within the scope of the controlled vocabulary. Disorder mentions in text from clinical narratives use a rich vocabulary that results in high term variation, which we believe to be one of the primary causes of reduced performance in clinical narrative. We show that pairwise learning to rank offers high performance in this context, and introduce several lexical enhancements - generalizable to other clinical NER tasks - that improve the ability of the NER system to handle this variation. DNorm-C is a high performing, open source system for disorders in clinical text, and a promising step toward NER and normalization methods that are trainable to a wide variety of domains and entities. (DNorm-C is open source software, and is available with a trained model at the DNorm demonstration website: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CBBresearch/Lu/Demo/tmTools/#DNorm.). Published by Elsevier Inc.

An Upper Bound on Orbital Debris Collision Probability When Only One Object has Position Uncertainty Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2015-01-01

Upper bounds on high speed satellite collision probability, P (sub c), have been investigated. Previous methods assume an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object. The two matrices being combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. Components of the combined error covariance are then varied to obtain a maximum P (sub c). If error covariance information for only one of the two objects was available, either some default shape has been used or nothing could be done. An alternative is presented that uses the known covariance information along with a critical value of the missing covariance to obtain an approximate but useful P (sub c) upper bound. There are various avenues along which an upper bound on the high speed satellite collision probability has been pursued. Typically, for the collision plane representation of the high speed collision probability problem, the predicted miss position in the collision plane is assumed fixed. Then the shape (aspect ratio of ellipse), the size (scaling of standard deviations) or the orientation (rotation of ellipse principal axes) of the combined position error ellipse is varied to obtain a maximum P (sub c). Regardless as to the exact details of the approach, previously presented methods all assume that an individual position error covariance matrix is available for each object and the two are combined into a single, relative position error covariance matrix. This combined position error covariance matrix is then modified according to the chosen scheme to arrive at a maximum P (sub c). But what if error covariance information for one of the two objects is not available? When error covariance information for one of the objects is not available the analyst has commonly defaulted to the situation in which only the relative miss position and velocity are known without any corresponding state error covariance information. The various usual methods of finding a maximum P (sub c) do no good because the analyst defaults to no knowledge of the combined, relative position error covariance matrix. It is reasonable to think, given an assumption of no covariance information, an analyst might still attempt to determine the error covariance matrix that results in an upper bound on the P (sub c). Without some guidance on limits to the shape, size and orientation of the unknown covariance matrix, the limiting case is a degenerate ellipse lying along the relative miss vector in the collision plane. Unless the miss position is exceptionally large or the at-risk object is exceptionally small, this method results in a maximum P (sub c) too large to be of practical use. For example, assuming that the miss distance is equal to the current ISS alert volume along-track (+ or -) distance of 25 kilometers and that the at-risk area has a 70 meter radius. The maximum (degenerate ellipse) P (sub c) is about 0.00136. At 40 kilometers, the maximum P (sub c) would be 0.00085 which is still almost an order of magnitude larger than the ISS maneuver threshold of 0.0001. In fact, a miss distance of almost 340 kilometers is necessary to reduce the maximum P (sub c) associated with this degenerate ellipse to the ISS maneuver threshold value. Such a result is frequently of no practical value to the analyst. Some improvement may be made with respect to this problem by realizing that while the position error covariance matrix of one of the objects (usually the debris object) may not be known the position error covariance matrix of the other object (usually the asset) is almost always available. Making use of the position error covariance information for the one object provides an improvement in finding a maximum P (sub c) which, in some cases, may offer real utility. The equations to be used are presented and their use discussed.

Statistical Orbit Determination using the Particle Filter for Incorporating Non-Gaussian Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mashiku, Alinda; Garrison, James L.; Carpenter, J. Russell

2012-01-01

The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for collision avoidance. As even collision events with very low probability are important, accurate prediction of collisions require the representation of the full probability density function (PDF) of the random orbit state. Through representing the full PDF of the orbit state for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance, we can take advantage of the statistical information present in the heavy tailed distributions, more accurately representing the orbit states with low probability. The classical methods of orbit determination (i.e. Kalman Filter and its derivatives) provide state estimates based on only the second moments of the state and measurement errors that are captured by assuming a Gaussian distribution. Although the measurement errors can be accurately assumed to have a Gaussian distribution, errors with a non-Gaussian distribution could arise during propagation between observations. Moreover, unmodeled dynamics in the orbit model could introduce non-Gaussian errors into the process noise. A Particle Filter (PF) is proposed as a nonlinear filtering technique that is capable of propagating and estimating a more complete representation of the state distribution as an accurate approximation of a full PDF. The PF uses Monte Carlo runs to generate particles that approximate the full PDF representation. The PF is applied in the estimation and propagation of a highly eccentric orbit and the results are compared to the Extended Kalman Filter and Splitting Gaussian Mixture algorithms to demonstrate its proficiency.

Landsat D Thematic Mapper image dimensionality reduction and geometric correction accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ford, G. E.

1986-01-01

To characterize and quantify the performance of the Landsat thematic mapper (TM), techniques for dimensionality reduction by linear transformation have been studied and evaluated and the accuracy of the correction of geometric errors in TM images analyzed. Theoretical evaluations and comparisons for existing methods for the design of linear transformation for dimensionality reduction are presented. These methods include the discrete Karhunen Loeve (KL) expansion, Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Thematic Mapper (TM)-Tasseled Cap Linear Transformation and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD). A unified approach to these design problems is presented in which each method involves optimizing an objective function with respect to the linear transformation matrix. From these studies, four modified methods are proposed. They are referred to as the Space Variant Linear Transformation, the KL Transform-MDA hybrid method, and the First and Second Version of the Weighted MDA method. The modifications involve the assignment of weights to classes to achieve improvements in the class conditional probability of error for classes with high weights. Experimental evaluations of the existing and proposed methods have been performed using the six reflective bands of the TM data. It is shown that in terms of probability of classification error and the percentage of the cumulative eigenvalues, the six reflective bands of the TM data require only a three dimensional feature space. It is shown experimentally as well that for the proposed methods, the classes with high weights have improvements in class conditional probability of error estimates as expected.

Automated Comparative Auditing of NCIT Genomic Roles Using NCBI

PubMed Central

Cohen, Barry; Oren, Marc; Min, Hua; Perl, Yehoshua; Halper, Michael

2008-01-01

Biomedical research has identified many human genes and various knowledge about them. The National Cancer Institute Thesaurus (NCIT) represents such knowledge as concepts and roles (relationships). Due to the rapid advances in this field, it is to be expected that the NCIT’s Gene hierarchy will contain role errors. A comparative methodology to audit the Gene hierarchy with the use of the National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s) Entrez Gene database is presented. The two knowledge sources are accessed via a pair of Web crawlers to ensure up-to-date data. Our algorithms then compare the knowledge gathered from each, identify discrepancies that represent probable errors, and suggest corrective actions. The primary focus is on two kinds of gene-roles: (1) the chromosomal locations of genes, and (2) the biological processes in which genes plays a role. Regarding chromosomal locations, the discrepancies revealed are striking and systematic, suggesting a structurally common origin. In regard to the biological processes, difficulties arise because genes frequently play roles in multiple processes, and processes may have many designations (such as synonymous terms). Our algorithms make use of the roles defined in the NCIT Biological Process hierarchy to uncover many probable gene-role errors in the NCIT. These results show that automated comparative auditing is a promising technique that can identify a large number of probable errors and corrections for them in a terminological genomic knowledge repository, thus facilitating its overall maintenance. PMID:18486558

Clarification of terminology in medication errors: definitions and classification.

PubMed

Ferner, Robin E; Aronson, Jeffrey K

2006-01-01

We have previously described and analysed some terms that are used in drug safety and have proposed definitions. Here we discuss and define terms that are used in the field of medication errors, particularly terms that are sometimes misunderstood or misused. We also discuss the classification of medication errors. A medication error is a failure in the treatment process that leads to, or has the potential to lead to, harm to the patient. Errors can be classified according to whether they are mistakes, slips, or lapses. Mistakes are errors in the planning of an action. They can be knowledge based or rule based. Slips and lapses are errors in carrying out an action - a slip through an erroneous performance and a lapse through an erroneous memory. Classification of medication errors is important because the probabilities of errors of different classes are different, as are the potential remedies.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks.

PubMed

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-04-22

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve approximately 30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks

PubMed Central

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D.; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K.; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D. Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-01-01

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve ≈30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations. PMID:18427123

Magnetic resonance imaging-targeted, 3D transrectal ultrasound-guided fusion biopsy for prostate cancer: Quantifying the impact of needle delivery error on diagnosis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, Peter R., E-mail: pmarti46@uwo.ca; Cool, Derek W.; Romagnoli, Cesare

2014-07-15

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted, 3D transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided “fusion” prostate biopsy intends to reduce the ∼23% false negative rate of clinical two-dimensional TRUS-guided sextant biopsy. Although it has been reported to double the positive yield, MRI-targeted biopsies continue to yield false negatives. Therefore, the authors propose to investigate how biopsy system needle delivery error affects the probability of sampling each tumor, by accounting for uncertainties due to guidance system error, image registration error, and irregular tumor shapes. Methods: T2-weighted, dynamic contrast-enhanced T1-weighted, and diffusion-weighted prostate MRI and 3D TRUS images were obtained from 49 patients. A radiologist and radiologymore » resident contoured 81 suspicious regions, yielding 3D tumor surfaces that were registered to the 3D TRUS images using an iterative closest point prostate surface-based method to yield 3D binary images of the suspicious regions in the TRUS context. The probabilityP of obtaining a sample of tumor tissue in one biopsy core was calculated by integrating a 3D Gaussian distribution over each suspicious region domain. Next, the authors performed an exhaustive search to determine the maximum root mean squared error (RMSE, in mm) of a biopsy system that gives P ≥ 95% for each tumor sample, and then repeated this procedure for equal-volume spheres corresponding to each tumor sample. Finally, the authors investigated the effect of probe-axis-direction error on measured tumor burden by studying the relationship between the error and estimated percentage of core involvement. Results: Given a 3.5 mm RMSE for contemporary fusion biopsy systems,P ≥ 95% for 21 out of 81 tumors. The authors determined that for a biopsy system with 3.5 mm RMSE, one cannot expect to sample tumors of approximately 1 cm{sup 3} or smaller with 95% probability with only one biopsy core. The predicted maximum RMSE giving P ≥ 95% for each tumor was consistently greater when using spherical tumor shapes as opposed to no shape assumption. However, an assumption of spherical tumor shape for RMSE = 3.5 mm led to a mean overestimation of tumor sampling probabilities of 3%, implying that assuming spherical tumor shape may be reasonable for many prostate tumors. The authors also determined that a biopsy system would need to have a RMS needle delivery error of no more than 1.6 mm in order to sample 95% of tumors with one core. The authors’ experiments also indicated that the effect of axial-direction error on the measured tumor burden was mitigated by the 18 mm core length at 3.5 mm RMSE. Conclusions: For biopsy systems with RMSE ≥ 3.5 mm, more than one biopsy core must be taken from the majority of tumors to achieveP ≥ 95%. These observations support the authors’ perspective that some tumors of clinically significant sizes may require more than one biopsy attempt in order to be sampled during the first biopsy session. This motivates the authors’ ongoing development of an approach to optimize biopsy plans with the aim of achieving a desired probability of obtaining a sample from each tumor, while minimizing the number of biopsies. Optimized planning of within-tumor targets for MRI-3D TRUS fusion biopsy could support earlier diagnosis of prostate cancer while it remains localized to the gland and curable.« less

Error protection capability of space shuttle data bus designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Proch, G. E.

1974-01-01

Error protection assurance in the reliability of digital data communications is discussed. The need for error protection on the space shuttle data bus system has been recognized and specified as a hardware requirement. The error protection techniques of particular concern are those designed into the Shuttle Main Engine Interface (MEI) and the Orbiter Multiplex Interface Adapter (MIA). The techniques and circuit design details proposed for these hardware are analyzed in this report to determine their error protection capability. The capability is calculated in terms of the probability of an undetected word error. Calculated results are reported for a noise environment that ranges from the nominal noise level stated in the hardware specifications to burst levels which may occur in extreme or anomalous conditions.

The Effects and Side-Effects of Statistics Education: Psychology Students' (Mis-)Conceptions of Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina; Chiesi, Francesca; Handley, Simon

2009-01-01

In three studies we looked at two typical misconceptions of probability: the representativeness heuristic, and the equiprobability bias. The literature on statistics education predicts that some typical errors and biases (e.g., the equiprobability bias) increase with education, whereas others decrease. This is in contrast with reasoning theorists'…

Robust Connectivity in Sensory and Ad Hoc Network

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

as the prior probability is π0 = 0.8, the error probability should be capped at 0.2. This seemingly pathological result is due to the fact that the...publications and is the author of the book Multirate and Wavelet Signal Processing (Academic Press, 1998). His research interests include multiscale signal and

Laser damage metrology in biaxial nonlinear crystals using different test beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hildenbrand, Anne; Wagner, Frank R.; Akhouayri, Hassan; Natoli, Jean-Yves; Commandre, Mireille

2008-01-01

Laser damage measurements in nonlinear optical crystals, in particular in biaxial crystals, may be influenced by several effects proper to these materials or greatly enhanced in these materials. Before discussion of these effects, we address the topic of error bar determination for probability measurements. Error bars for the damage probabilities are important because nonlinear crystals are often small and expensive, thus only few sites are used for a single damage probability measurement. We present the mathematical basics and a flow diagram for the numerical calculation of error bars for probability measurements that correspond to a chosen confidence level. Effects that possibly modify the maximum intensity in a biaxial nonlinear crystal are: focusing aberration, walk-off and self-focusing. Depending on focusing conditions, propagation direction, polarization of the light and the position of the focus point in the crystal, strong aberrations may change the beam profile and drastically decrease the maximum intensity in the crystal. A correction factor for this effect is proposed, but quantitative corrections are not possible without taking into account the experimental beam profile after the focusing lens. The characteristics of walk-off and self-focusing have quickly been reviewed for the sake of completeness of this article. Finally, parasitic second harmonic generation may influence the laser damage behavior of crystals. The important point for laser damage measurements is that the amount of externally observed SHG after the crystal does not correspond to the maximum amount of second harmonic light inside the crystal.

Land use and land cover classification for rural residential areas in China using soft-probability cascading of multifeatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bin; Liu, Yueyan; Zhang, Zuyu; Shen, Yonglin

2017-10-01

A multifeature soft-probability cascading scheme to solve the problem of land use and land cover (LULC) classification using high-spatial-resolution images to map rural residential areas in China is proposed. The proposed method is used to build midlevel LULC features. Local features are frequently considered as low-level feature descriptors in a midlevel feature learning method. However, spectral and textural features, which are very effective low-level features, are neglected. The acquisition of the dictionary of sparse coding is unsupervised, and this phenomenon reduces the discriminative power of the midlevel feature. Thus, we propose to learn supervised features based on sparse coding, a support vector machine (SVM) classifier, and a conditional random field (CRF) model to utilize the different effective low-level features and improve the discriminability of midlevel feature descriptors. First, three kinds of typical low-level features, namely, dense scale-invariant feature transform, gray-level co-occurrence matrix, and spectral features, are extracted separately. Second, combined with sparse coding and the SVM classifier, the probabilities of the different LULC classes are inferred to build supervised feature descriptors. Finally, the CRF model, which consists of two parts: unary potential and pairwise potential, is employed to construct an LULC classification map. Experimental results show that the proposed classification scheme can achieve impressive performance when the total accuracy reached about 87%.

Neuropsychological analysis of a typewriting disturbance following cerebral damage.

PubMed

Boyle, M; Canter, G J

1987-01-01

Following a left CVA, a skilled professional typist sustained a disturbance of typing disproportionate to her handwriting disturbance. Typing errors were predominantly of the sequencing type, with spatial errors much less frequent, suggesting that the impairment was based on a relatively early (premotor) stage of processing. Depriving the subject of visual feedback during handwriting greatly increased her error rate. Similarly, interfering with auditory feedback during speech substantially reduced her self-correction of speech errors. These findings suggested that impaired ability to utilize somesthetic information--probably caused by the subject's parietal lobe lesion--may have been the basis of the typing disorder.

Residue frequencies and pairing preferences at protein-protein interfaces.

PubMed

Glaser, F; Steinberg, D M; Vakser, I A; Ben-Tal, N

2001-05-01

We used a nonredundant set of 621 protein-protein interfaces of known high-resolution structure to derive residue composition and residue-residue contact preferences. The residue composition at the interfaces, in entire proteins and in whole genomes correlates well, indicating the statistical strength of the data set. Differences between amino acid distributions were observed for interfaces with buried surface area of less than 1,000 A(2) versus interfaces with area of more than 5,000 A(2). Hydrophobic residues were abundant in large interfaces while polar residues were more abundant in small interfaces. The largest residue-residue preferences at the interface were recorded for interactions between pairs of large hydrophobic residues, such as Trp and Leu, and the smallest preferences for pairs of small residues, such as Gly and Ala. On average, contacts between pairs of hydrophobic and polar residues were unfavorable, and the charged residues tended to pair subject to charge complementarity, in agreement with previous reports. A bootstrap procedure, lacking from previous studies, was used for error estimation. It showed that the statistical errors in the set of pairing preferences are generally small; the average standard error is approximately 0.2, i.e., about 8% of the average value of the pairwise index (2.9). However, for a few pairs (e.g., Ser-Ser and Glu-Asp) the standard error is larger in magnitude than the pairing index, which makes it impossible to tell whether contact formation is favorable or unfavorable. The results are interpreted using physicochemical factors and their implications for the energetics of complex formation and for protein docking are discussed. Proteins 2001;43:89-102. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A novel measure and significance testing in data analysis of cell image segmentation.

PubMed

Wu, Jin Chu; Halter, Michael; Kacker, Raghu N; Elliott, John T; Plant, Anne L

2017-03-14

Cell image segmentation (CIS) is an essential part of quantitative imaging of biological cells. Designing a performance measure and conducting significance testing are critical for evaluating and comparing the CIS algorithms for image-based cell assays in cytometry. Many measures and methods have been proposed and implemented to evaluate segmentation methods. However, computing the standard errors (SE) of the measures and their correlation coefficient is not described, and thus the statistical significance of performance differences between CIS algorithms cannot be assessed. We propose the total error rate (TER), a novel performance measure for segmenting all cells in the supervised evaluation. The TER statistically aggregates all misclassification error rates (MER) by taking cell sizes as weights. The MERs are for segmenting each single cell in the population. The TER is fully supported by the pairwise comparisons of MERs using 106 manually segmented ground-truth cells with different sizes and seven CIS algorithms taken from ImageJ. Further, the SE and 95% confidence interval (CI) of TER are computed based on the SE of MER that is calculated using the bootstrap method. An algorithm for computing the correlation coefficient of TERs between two CIS algorithms is also provided. Hence, the 95% CI error bars can be used to classify CIS algorithms. The SEs of TERs and their correlation coefficient can be employed to conduct the hypothesis testing, while the CIs overlap, to determine the statistical significance of the performance differences between CIS algorithms. A novel measure TER of CIS is proposed. The TER's SEs and correlation coefficient are computed. Thereafter, CIS algorithms can be evaluated and compared statistically by conducting the significance testing.

Effect of interacting second- and third-order stimulus-dependent correlations on population-coding asymmetries.

PubMed

Montangie, Lisandro; Montani, Fernando

2016-10-01

Spike correlations among neurons are widely encountered in the brain. Although models accounting for pairwise interactions have proved able to capture some of the most important features of population activity at the level of the retina, the evidence shows that pairwise neuronal correlation analysis does not resolve cooperative population dynamics by itself. By means of a series expansion for short time scales of the mutual information conveyed by a population of neurons, the information transmission can be broken down into firing rate and correlational components. In a proposed extension of this framework, we investigate the information components considering both second- and higher-order correlations. We show that the existence of a mixed stimulus-dependent correlation term defines a new scenario for the interplay between pairwise and higher-than-pairwise interactions in noise and signal correlations that would lead either to redundancy or synergy in the information-theoretic sense.

Automatic Camera Calibration Using Multiple Sets of Pairwise Correspondences.

PubMed

Vasconcelos, Francisco; Barreto, Joao P; Boyer, Edmond

2018-04-01

We propose a new method to add an uncalibrated node into a network of calibrated cameras using only pairwise point correspondences. While previous methods perform this task using triple correspondences, these are often difficult to establish when there is limited overlap between different views. In such challenging cases we must rely on pairwise correspondences and our solution becomes more advantageous. Our method includes an 11-point minimal solution for the intrinsic and extrinsic calibration of a camera from pairwise correspondences with other two calibrated cameras, and a new inlier selection framework that extends the traditional RANSAC family of algorithms to sampling across multiple datasets. Our method is validated on different application scenarios where a lack of triple correspondences might occur: addition of a new node to a camera network; calibration and motion estimation of a moving camera inside a camera network; and addition of views with limited overlap to a Structure-from-Motion model.

Shaped Ceria Nanocrystals Catalyze Efficient and Selective Para-Hydrogen-Enhanced Polarization.

PubMed

Zhao, Evan W; Zheng, Haibin; Zhou, Ronghui; Hagelin-Weaver, Helena E; Bowers, Clifford R

2015-11-23

Intense para-hydrogen-enhanced NMR signals are observed in the hydrogenation of propene and propyne over ceria nanocubes, nano-octahedra, and nanorods. The well-defined ceria shapes, synthesized by a hydrothermal method, expose different crystalline facets with various oxygen vacancy densities, which are known to play a role in hydrogenation and oxidation catalysis. While the catalytic activity of the hydrogenation of propene over ceria is strongly facet-dependent, the pairwise selectivity is low (2.4% at 375 °C), which is consistent with stepwise H atom transfer, and it is the same for all three nanocrystal shapes. Selective semi-hydrogenation of propyne over ceria nanocubes yields hyperpolarized propene with a similar pairwise selectivity of (2.7% at 300 °C), indicating product formation predominantly by a non-pairwise addition. Ceria is also shown to be an efficient pairwise replacement catalyst for propene. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Pairwise Force Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics model for multiphase flow: Surface tension and contact line dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.; Panchenko, Alexander

2016-01-01

We present a novel formulation of the Pairwise Force Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics Model (PF-SPH) and use it to simulate two- and three-phase flows in bounded domains. In the PF-SPH model, the Navier-Stokes equations are discretized with the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method and the Young-Laplace boundary condition at the fluid-fluid interface and the Young boundary condition at the fluid-fluid-solid interface are replaced with pairwise forces added into the Navier-Stokes equations. We derive a relationship between the parameters in the pairwise forces and the surface tension and static contact angle. Next, we demonstrate the accuracy of the model under static andmore » dynamic conditions. Finally, to demonstrate the capabilities and robustness of the model we use it to simulate flow of three fluids in a porous material.« less

Estimating true human and animal host source contribution in quantitative microbial source tracking using the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Silkie, Sarah S; Nelson, Kara L; Wuertz, Stefan

2010-09-01

Cultivation- and library-independent, quantitative PCR-based methods have become the method of choice in microbial source tracking. However, these qPCR assays are not 100% specific and sensitive for the target sequence in their respective hosts' genome. The factors that can lead to false positive and false negative information in qPCR results are well defined. It is highly desirable to have a way of removing such false information to estimate the true concentration of host-specific genetic markers and help guide the interpretation of environmental monitoring studies. Here we propose a statistical model based on the Law of Total Probability to predict the true concentration of these markers. The distributions of the probabilities of obtaining false information are estimated from representative fecal samples of known origin. Measurement error is derived from the sample precision error of replicated qPCR reactions. Then, the Monte Carlo method is applied to sample from these distributions of probabilities and measurement error. The set of equations given by the Law of Total Probability allows one to calculate the distribution of true concentrations, from which their expected value, confidence interval and other statistical characteristics can be easily evaluated. The output distributions of predicted true concentrations can then be used as input to watershed-wide total maximum daily load determinations, quantitative microbial risk assessment and other environmental models. This model was validated by both statistical simulations and real world samples. It was able to correct the intrinsic false information associated with qPCR assays and output the distribution of true concentrations of Bacteroidales for each animal host group. Model performance was strongly affected by the precision error. It could perform reliably and precisely when the standard deviation of the precision error was small (≤ 0.1). Further improvement on the precision of sample processing and qPCR reaction would greatly improve the performance of the model. This methodology, built upon Bacteroidales assays, is readily transferable to any other microbial source indicator where a universal assay for fecal sources of that indicator exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Error estimates for (semi-)empirical dispersion terms and large biomacromolecules.

PubMed

Korth, Martin

2013-10-14

The first-principles modeling of biomaterials has made tremendous advances over the last few years with the ongoing growth of computing power and impressive developments in the application of density functional theory (DFT) codes to large systems. One important step forward was the development of dispersion corrections for DFT methods, which account for the otherwise neglected dispersive van der Waals (vdW) interactions. Approaches at different levels of theory exist, with the most often used (semi-)empirical ones based on pair-wise interatomic C6R(-6) terms. Similar terms are now also used in connection with semiempirical QM (SQM) methods and density functional tight binding methods (SCC-DFTB). Their basic structure equals the attractive term in Lennard-Jones potentials, common to most force field approaches, but they usually use some type of cutoff function to make the mixing of the (long-range) dispersion term with the already existing (short-range) dispersion and exchange-repulsion effects from the electronic structure theory methods possible. All these dispersion approximations were found to perform accurately for smaller systems, but error estimates for larger systems are very rare and completely missing for really large biomolecules. We derive such estimates for the dispersion terms of DFT, SQM and MM methods using error statistics for smaller systems and dispersion contribution estimates for the PDBbind database of protein-ligand interactions. We find that dispersion terms will usually not be a limiting factor for reaching chemical accuracy, though some force fields and large ligand sizes are problematic.

DNA double-strand-break complexity levels and their possible contributions to the probability for error-prone processing and repair pathway choice.

PubMed

Schipler, Agnes; Iliakis, George

2013-09-01

Although the DNA double-strand break (DSB) is defined as a rupture in the double-stranded DNA molecule that can occur without chemical modification in any of the constituent building blocks, it is recognized that this form is restricted to enzyme-induced DSBs. DSBs generated by physical or chemical agents can include at the break site a spectrum of base alterations (lesions). The nature and number of such chemical alterations define the complexity of the DSB and are considered putative determinants for repair pathway choice and the probability that errors will occur during this processing. As the pathways engaged in DSB processing show distinct and frequently inherent propensities for errors, pathway choice also defines the error-levels cells opt to accept. Here, we present a classification of DSBs on the basis of increasing complexity and discuss how complexity may affect processing, as well as how it may cause lethal or carcinogenic processing errors. By critically analyzing the characteristics of DSB repair pathways, we suggest that all repair pathways can in principle remove lesions clustering at the DSB but are likely to fail when they encounter clusters of DSBs that cause a local form of chromothripsis. In the same framework, we also analyze the rational of DSB repair pathway choice.

Relay-aided free-space optical communications using α - μ distribution over atmospheric turbulence channels with misalignment errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Upadhya, Abhijeet; Dwivedi, Vivek K.; Singh, G.

2018-06-01

In this paper, we have analyzed the performance of dual hop radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) fixed gain relay environment confined by atmospheric turbulence induced fading channel over FSO link and modeled using α - μ distribution. The RF hop of the amplify-and-forward scheme undergoes the Rayleigh fading and the proposed system model also considers the pointing error effect on the FSO link. A novel and accurate mathematical expression of the probability density function for a FSO link experiencing α - μ distributed atmospheric turbulence in the presence of pointing error is derived. Further, we have presented analytical expressions of outage probability and bit error rate in terms of Meijer-G function. In addition to this, a useful and mathematically tractable closed-form expression for the end-to-end ergodic capacity of the dual hop scheme in terms of bivariate Fox's H function is derived. The atmospheric turbulence, misalignment errors and various binary modulation schemes for intensity modulation on optical wireless link are considered to yield the results. Finally, we have analyzed each of the three performance metrics for high SNR in order to represent them in terms of elementary functions and the achieved analytical results are supported by computer-based simulations.

A theoretical basis for the analysis of redundant software subject to coincident errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.; Lee, L. D.

1985-01-01

Fundamental to the development of redundant software techniques fault-tolerant software, is an understanding of the impact of multiple-joint occurrences of coincident errors. A theoretical basis for the study of redundant software is developed which provides a probabilistic framework for empirically evaluating the effectiveness of the general (N-Version) strategy when component versions are subject to coincident errors, and permits an analytical study of the effects of these errors. The basic assumptions of the model are: (1) independently designed software components are chosen in a random sample; and (2) in the user environment, the system is required to execute on a stationary input series. The intensity of coincident errors, has a central role in the model. This function describes the propensity to introduce design faults in such a way that software components fail together when executing in the user environment. The model is used to give conditions under which an N-Version system is a better strategy for reducing system failure probability than relying on a single version of software. A condition which limits the effectiveness of a fault-tolerant strategy is studied, and it is posted whether system failure probability varies monotonically with increasing N or whether an optimal choice of N exists.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olama, Mohammed M; Matalgah, Mustafa M; Bobrek, Miljko

Traditional encryption techniques require packet overhead, produce processing time delay, and suffer from severe quality of service deterioration due to fades and interference in wireless channels. These issues reduce the effective transmission data rate (throughput) considerably in wireless communications, where data rate with limited bandwidth is the main constraint. In this paper, performance evaluation analyses are conducted for an integrated signaling-encryption mechanism that is secure and enables improved throughput and probability of bit-error in wireless channels. This mechanism eliminates the drawbacks stated herein by encrypting only a small portion of an entire transmitted frame, while the rest is not subjectmore » to traditional encryption but goes through a signaling process (designed transformation) with the plaintext of the portion selected for encryption. We also propose to incorporate error correction coding solely on the small encrypted portion of the data to drastically improve the overall bit-error rate performance while not noticeably increasing the required bit-rate. We focus on validating the signaling-encryption mechanism utilizing Hamming and convolutional error correction coding by conducting an end-to-end system-level simulation-based study. The average probability of bit-error and throughput of the encryption mechanism are evaluated over standard Gaussian and Rayleigh fading-type channels and compared to the ones of the conventional advanced encryption standard (AES).« less

Discriminating quantum-optical beam-splitter channels with number-diagonal signal states: Applications to quantum reading and target detection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nair, Ranjith

2011-09-15

We consider the problem of distinguishing, with minimum probability of error, two optical beam-splitter channels with unequal complex-valued reflectivities using general quantum probe states entangled over M signal and M' idler mode pairs of which the signal modes are bounced off the beam splitter while the idler modes are retained losslessly. We obtain a lower bound on the output state fidelity valid for any pure input state. We define number-diagonal signal (NDS) states to be input states whose density operator in the signal modes is diagonal in the multimode number basis. For such input states, we derive series formulas formore » the optimal error probability, the output state fidelity, and the Chernoff-type upper bounds on the error probability. For the special cases of quantum reading of a classical digital memory and target detection (for which the reflectivities are real valued), we show that for a given input signal photon probability distribution, the fidelity is minimized by the NDS states with that distribution and that for a given average total signal energy N{sub s}, the fidelity is minimized by any multimode Fock state with N{sub s} total signal photons. For reading of an ideal memory, it is shown that Fock state inputs minimize the Chernoff bound. For target detection under high-loss conditions, a no-go result showing the lack of appreciable quantum advantage over coherent state transmitters is derived. A comparison of the error probability performance for quantum reading of number state and two-mode squeezed vacuum state (or EPR state) transmitters relative to coherent state transmitters is presented for various values of the reflectances. While the nonclassical states in general perform better than the coherent state, the quantitative performance gains differ depending on the values of the reflectances. The experimental outlook for realizing nonclassical gains from number state transmitters with current technology at moderate to high values of the reflectances is argued to be good.« less

On Two-Stage Multiple Comparison Procedures When There Are Unequal Sample Sizes in the First Stage.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.

1984-01-01

Two stage multiple-comparison procedures give an exact solution to problems of power and Type I errors, but require equal sample sizes in the first stage. This paper suggests a method of evaluating the experimentwise Type I error probability when the first stage has unequal sample sizes. (Author/BW)

Planned Hypothesis Tests Are Not Necessarily Exempt from Multiplicity Adjustment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frane, Andrew V.

2015-01-01

Scientific research often involves testing more than one hypothesis at a time, which can inflate the probability that a Type I error (false discovery) will occur. To prevent this Type I error inflation, adjustments can be made to the testing procedure that compensate for the number of tests. Yet many researchers believe that such adjustments are…

Stimulus-Outcome Learnability Differentially Activates Anterior Cingulate and Hippocampus at Feedback Processing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Paul F.

2009-01-01

Memory systems are known to be influenced by feedback and error processing, but it is not well known what aspects of outcome contingencies are related to different memory systems. Here we use the Rescorla-Wagner model to estimate prediction errors in an fMRI study of stimulus-outcome association learning. The conditional probabilities of outcomes…

Microcircuit radiation effects databank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

Radiation test data submitted by many testers is collated to serve as a reference for engineers who are concerned with and have some knowledge of the effects of the natural radiation environment on microcircuits. Total dose damage information and single event upset cross sections, i.e., the probability of a soft error (bit flip) or of a hard error (latchup) are presented.

Computer-aided diagnosis with potential application to rapid detection of disease outbreaks.

PubMed

Burr, Tom; Koster, Frederick; Picard, Rick; Forslund, Dave; Wokoun, Doug; Joyce, Ed; Brillman, Judith; Froman, Phil; Lee, Jack

2007-04-15

Our objectives are to quickly interpret symptoms of emergency patients to identify likely syndromes and to improve population-wide disease outbreak detection. We constructed a database of 248 syndromes, each syndrome having an estimated probability of producing any of 85 symptoms, with some two-way, three-way, and five-way probabilities reflecting correlations among symptoms. Using these multi-way probabilities in conjunction with an iterative proportional fitting algorithm allows estimation of full conditional probabilities. Combining these conditional probabilities with misdiagnosis error rates and incidence rates via Bayes theorem, the probability of each syndrome is estimated. We tested a prototype of computer-aided differential diagnosis (CADDY) on simulated data and on more than 100 real cases, including West Nile Virus, Q fever, SARS, anthrax, plague, tularaemia and toxic shock cases. We conclude that: (1) it is important to determine whether the unrecorded positive status of a symptom means that the status is negative or that the status is unknown; (2) inclusion of misdiagnosis error rates produces more realistic results; (3) the naive Bayes classifier, which assumes all symptoms behave independently, is slightly outperformed by CADDY, which includes available multi-symptom information on correlations; as more information regarding symptom correlations becomes available, the advantage of CADDY over the naive Bayes classifier should increase; (4) overlooking low-probability, high-consequence events is less likely if the standard output summary is augmented with a list of rare syndromes that are consistent with observed symptoms, and (5) accumulating patient-level probabilities across a larger population can aid in biosurveillance for disease outbreaks. c 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

RFI in hybrid loops - Simulation and experimental results.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemer, R. E.; Nelson, D. R.; Raghavan, H. R.

1972-01-01

A digital simulation of an imperfect second-order hybrid phase-locked loop (HPLL) operating in radio frequency interference (RFI) is described. Its performance is characterized in terms of phase error variance and phase error probability density function (PDF). Monte-Carlo simulation is used to show that the HPLL can be superior to the conventional phase-locked loops in RFI backgrounds when minimum phase error variance is the goodness criterion. Similar experimentally obtained data are given in support of the simulation data.

Quantum computing and probability.

PubMed

Ferry, David K

2009-11-25

Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

Exploration of multiphoton entangled states by using weak nonlinearities

PubMed Central

He, Ying-Qiu; Ding, Dong; Yan, Feng-Li; Gao, Ting

2016-01-01

We propose a fruitful scheme for exploring multiphoton entangled states based on linear optics and weak nonlinearities. Compared with the previous schemes the present method is more feasible because there are only small phase shifts instead of a series of related functions of photon numbers in the process of interaction with Kerr nonlinearities. In the absence of decoherence we analyze the error probabilities induced by homodyne measurement and show that the maximal error probability can be made small enough even when the number of photons is large. This implies that the present scheme is quite tractable and it is possible to produce entangled states involving a large number of photons. PMID:26751044

iGLASS: An Improvement to the GLASS Method for Estimating Species Trees from Gene Trees

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, Noah A.

2012-01-01

Abstract Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree. PMID:22216756

Testing the equivalence of modern human cranial covariance structure: Implications for bioarchaeological applications.

PubMed

von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Schroeder, Lauren

2016-10-01

Estimation of the variance-covariance (V/CV) structure of fragmentary bioarchaeological populations requires the use of proxy extant V/CV parameters. However, it is currently unclear whether extant human populations exhibit equivalent V/CV structures. Random skewers (RS) and hierarchical analyses of common principal components (CPC) were applied to a modern human cranial dataset. Cranial V/CV similarity was assessed globally for samples of individual populations (jackknifed method) and for pairwise population sample contrasts. The results were examined in light of potential explanatory factors for covariance difference, such as geographic region, among-group distance, and sample size. RS analyses showed that population samples exhibited highly correlated multivariate responses to selection, and that differences in RS results were primarily a consequence of differences in sample size. The CPC method yielded mixed results, depending upon the statistical criterion used to evaluate the hierarchy. The hypothesis-testing (step-up) approach was deemed problematic due to sensitivity to low statistical power and elevated Type I errors. In contrast, the model-fitting (lowest AIC) approach suggested that V/CV matrices were proportional and/or shared a large number of CPCs. Pairwise population sample CPC results were correlated with cranial distance, suggesting that population history explains some of the variability in V/CV structure among groups. The results indicate that patterns of covariance in human craniometric samples are broadly similar but not identical. These findings have important implications for choosing extant covariance matrices to use as proxy V/CV parameters in evolutionary analyses of past populations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Marker-based quantification of interfractional tumor position variation and the use of markers for setup verification in radiation therapy for esophageal cancer.

PubMed

Jin, Peng; van der Horst, Astrid; de Jong, Rianne; van Hooft, Jeanin E; Kamphuis, Martijn; van Wieringen, Niek; Machiels, Melanie; Bel, Arjan; Hulshof, Maarten C C M; Alderliesten, Tanja

2015-12-01

The aim of this study was to quantify interfractional esophageal tumor position variation using markers and investigate the use of markers for setup verification. Sixty-five markers placed in the tumor volumes of 24 esophageal cancer patients were identified in computed tomography (CT) and follow-up cone-beam CT. For each patient we calculated pairwise distances between markers over time to evaluate geometric tumor volume variation. We then quantified marker displacements relative to bony anatomy and estimated the variation of systematic (Σ) and random errors (σ). During bony anatomy-based setup verification, we visually inspected whether the markers were inside the planning target volume (PTV) and attempted marker-based registration. Minor time trends with substantial fluctuations in pairwise distances implied tissue deformation. Overall, Σ(σ) in the left-right/cranial-caudal/anterior-posterior direction was 2.9(2.4)/4.1(2.4)/2.2(1.8) mm; for the proximal stomach, it was 5.4(4.3)/4.9(3.2)/1.9(2.4) mm. After bony anatomy-based setup correction, all markers were inside the PTV. However, due to large tissue deformation, marker-based registration was not feasible. Generally, the interfractional position variation of esophageal tumors is more pronounced in the cranial-caudal direction and in the proximal stomach. Currently, marker-based setup verification is not feasible for clinical routine use, but markers can facilitate the setup verification by inspecting whether the PTV covers the tumor volume adequately. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive Anti-error Study on Power Grid Dispatching Based on Regional Regulation and Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yunju; Chen, Zhongyi; Guo, Ming; Lin, Shunsheng; Yan, Yinyang

2018-01-01

With the large capacity of the power system, the development trend of the large unit and the high voltage, the scheduling operation is becoming more frequent and complicated, and the probability of operation error increases. This paper aims at the problem of the lack of anti-error function, single scheduling function and low working efficiency for technical support system in regional regulation and integration, the integrated construction of the error prevention of the integrated architecture of the system of dispatching anti - error of dispatching anti - error of power network based on cloud computing has been proposed. Integrated system of error prevention of Energy Management System, EMS, and Operation Management System, OMS have been constructed either. The system architecture has good scalability and adaptability, which can improve the computational efficiency, reduce the cost of system operation and maintenance, enhance the ability of regional regulation and anti-error checking with broad development prospects.

On the use of biomathematical models in patient-specific IMRT dose QA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhen Heming; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Tome, Wolfgang A.

2013-07-15

Purpose: To investigate the use of biomathematical models such as tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) as new quality assurance (QA) metrics.Methods: Five different types of error (MLC transmission, MLC penumbra, MLC tongue and groove, machine output, and MLC position) were intentionally induced to 40 clinical intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) patient plans (20 H and N cases and 20 prostate cases) to simulate both treatment planning system errors and machine delivery errors in the IMRT QA process. The changes in TCP and NTCP for eight different anatomic structures (H and N: CTV, GTV, both parotids,more » spinal cord, larynx; prostate: CTV, rectal wall) were calculated as the new QA metrics to quantify the clinical impact on patients. The correlation between the change in TCP/NTCP and the change in selected DVH values was also evaluated. The relation between TCP/NTCP change and the characteristics of the TCP/NTCP curves is discussed.Results:{Delta}TCP and {Delta}NTCP were summarized for each type of induced error and each structure. The changes/degradations in TCP and NTCP caused by the errors vary widely depending on dose patterns unique to each plan, and are good indicators of each plan's 'robustness' to that type of error.Conclusions: In this in silico QA study the authors have demonstrated the possibility of using biomathematical models not only as patient-specific QA metrics but also as objective indicators that quantify, pretreatment, a plan's robustness with respect to possible error types.« less

Maximizing the Detection Probability of Kilonovae Associated with Gravitational Wave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Man Leong; Hu, Yi-Ming; Messenger, Chris; Hendry, Martin; Heng, Ik Siong

2017-01-01

Estimates of the source sky location for gravitational wave signals are likely to span areas of up to hundreds of square degrees or more, making it very challenging for most telescopes to search for counterpart signals in the electromagnetic spectrum. To boost the chance of successfully observing such counterparts, we have developed an algorithm that optimizes the number of observing fields and their corresponding time allocations by maximizing the detection probability. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we optimize follow-up observations targeting kilonovae using telescopes including the CTIO-Dark Energy Camera, Subaru-HyperSuprimeCam, Pan-STARRS, and the Palomar Transient Factory. We consider three simulated gravitational wave events with 90% credible error regions spanning areas from ∼ 30 {\\deg }2 to ∼ 300 {\\deg }2. Assuming a source at 200 {Mpc}, we demonstrate that to obtain a maximum detection probability, there is an optimized number of fields for any particular event that a telescope should observe. To inform future telescope design studies, we present the maximum detection probability and corresponding number of observing fields for a combination of limiting magnitudes and fields of view over a range of parameters. We show that for large gravitational wave error regions, telescope sensitivity rather than field of view is the dominating factor in maximizing the detection probability.

Quantum Error Correction Protects Quantum Search Algorithms Against Decoherence

PubMed Central

Botsinis, Panagiotis; Babar, Zunaira; Alanis, Dimitrios; Chandra, Daryus; Nguyen, Hung; Ng, Soon Xin; Hanzo, Lajos

2016-01-01

When quantum computing becomes a wide-spread commercial reality, Quantum Search Algorithms (QSA) and especially Grover’s QSA will inevitably be one of their main applications, constituting their cornerstone. Most of the literature assumes that the quantum circuits are free from decoherence. Practically, decoherence will remain unavoidable as is the Gaussian noise of classic circuits imposed by the Brownian motion of electrons, hence it may have to be mitigated. In this contribution, we investigate the effect of quantum noise on the performance of QSAs, in terms of their success probability as a function of the database size to be searched, when decoherence is modelled by depolarizing channels’ deleterious effects imposed on the quantum gates. Moreover, we employ quantum error correction codes for limiting the effects of quantum noise and for correcting quantum flips. More specifically, we demonstrate that, when we search for a single solution in a database having 4096 entries using Grover’s QSA at an aggressive depolarizing probability of 10−3, the success probability of the search is 0.22 when no quantum coding is used, which is improved to 0.96 when Steane’s quantum error correction code is employed. Finally, apart from Steane’s code, the employment of Quantum Bose-Chaudhuri-Hocquenghem (QBCH) codes is also considered. PMID:27924865

Classification and reduction of pilot error

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, W. H.; Logan, A. L.; Boley, G. D.

1989-01-01

Human error is a primary or contributing factor in about two-thirds of commercial aviation accidents worldwide. With the ultimate goal of reducing pilot error accidents, this contract effort is aimed at understanding the factors underlying error events and reducing the probability of certain types of errors by modifying underlying factors such as flight deck design and procedures. A review of the literature relevant to error classification was conducted. Classification includes categorizing types of errors, the information processing mechanisms and factors underlying them, and identifying factor-mechanism-error relationships. The classification scheme developed by Jens Rasmussen was adopted because it provided a comprehensive yet basic error classification shell or structure that could easily accommodate addition of details on domain-specific factors. For these purposes, factors specific to the aviation environment were incorporated. Hypotheses concerning the relationship of a small number of underlying factors, information processing mechanisms, and error types types identified in the classification scheme were formulated. ASRS data were reviewed and a simulation experiment was performed to evaluate and quantify the hypotheses.

A Short History of Probability Theory and Its Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Debnath, Lokenath; Basu, Kanadpriya

2015-01-01

This paper deals with a brief history of probability theory and its applications to Jacob Bernoulli's famous law of large numbers and theory of errors in observations or measurements. Included are the major contributions of Jacob Bernoulli and Laplace. It is written to pay the tricentennial tribute to Jacob Bernoulli, since the year 2013…

The Conjunction Fallacy: A Misunderstanding about Conjunction?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tentori, Katya; Bonini, Nicolao; Osherson, Daniel

2004-01-01

It is easy to construct pairs of sentences X, Y that lead many people to ascribe higher probability to the conjunction X-and-Y than to the conjuncts X, Y. Whether an error is thereby committed depends on reasoners' interpretation of the expressions "probability" and "and." We report two experiments designed to clarify the normative status of…

The Influence of Improper Sets of Information on Judgment: How Irrelevant Information Can Bias Judged Probability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber

2006-01-01

This article introduces 2 new sources of bias in probability judgment, discrimination failure and inhibition failure, which are conceptualized as arising from an interaction between error prone memory processes and a support theory like comparison process. Both sources of bias stem from the influence of irrelevant information on participants'…

Aggregate and Individual Replication Probability within an Explicit Model of the Research Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Jeff; Schwarz, Wolf

2011-01-01

We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by…

Cosmology with the pairwise kinematic SZ effect: Calibration and validation using hydrodynamical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soergel, Bjoern; Saro, Alexandro; Giannantonio, Tommaso; Efstathiou, George; Dolag, Klaus

2018-05-01

We study the potential of the kinematic SZ effect as a probe for cosmology, focusing on the pairwise method. The main challenge is disentangling the cosmologically interesting mean pairwise velocity from the cluster optical depth and the associated uncertainties on the baryonic physics in clusters. Furthermore, the pairwise kSZ signal might be affected by internal cluster motions or correlations between velocity and optical depth. We investigate these effects using the Magneticum cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, one of the largest simulations of this kind performed to date. We produce tSZ and kSZ maps with an area of ≃ 1600 deg2, and the corresponding cluster catalogues with M500c ≳ 3 × 1013 h-1M⊙ and z ≲ 2. From these data sets we calibrate a scaling relation between the average Compton-y parameter and optical depth. We show that this relation can be used to recover an accurate estimate of the mean pairwise velocity from the kSZ effect, and that this effect can be used as an important probe of cosmology. We discuss the impact of theoretical and observational systematic effects, and find that further work on feedback models is required to interpret future high-precision measurements of the kSZ effect.

Development of a Nonlinear Probability of Collision Tool for the Earth Observing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McKinley, David P.

2006-01-01

The Earth Observing System (EOS) spacecraft Terra, Aqua, and Aura fly in constellation with several other spacecraft in 705-kilometer mean altitude sun-synchronous orbits. All three spacecraft are operated by the Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Project at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). In 2004, the ESMO project began assessing the probability of collision of the EOS spacecraft with other space objects. In addition to conjunctions with high relative velocities, the collision assessment method for the EOS spacecraft must address conjunctions with low relative velocities during potential collisions between constellation members. Probability of Collision algorithms that are based on assumptions of high relative velocities and linear relative trajectories are not suitable for these situations; therefore an algorithm for handling the nonlinear relative trajectories was developed. This paper describes this algorithm and presents results from its validation for operational use. The probability of collision is typically calculated by integrating a Gaussian probability distribution over the volume swept out by a sphere representing the size of the space objects involved in the conjunction. This sphere is defined as the Hard Body Radius. With the assumption of linear relative trajectories, this volume is a cylinder, which translates into simple limits of integration for the probability calculation. For the case of nonlinear relative trajectories, the volume becomes a complex geometry. However, with an appropriate choice of coordinate systems, the new algorithm breaks down the complex geometry into a series of simple cylinders that have simple limits of integration. This nonlinear algorithm will be discussed in detail in the paper. The nonlinear Probability of Collision algorithm was first verified by showing that, when used in high relative velocity cases, it yields similar answers to existing high relative velocity linear relative trajectory algorithms. The comparison with the existing high velocity/linear theory will also be used to determine at what relative velocity the analysis should use the new nonlinear theory in place of the existing linear theory. The nonlinear algorithm was also compared to a known exact solution for the probability of collision between two objects when the relative motion is strictly circular and the error covariance is spherically symmetric. Figure I shows preliminary results from this comparison by plotting the probabilities calculated from the new algorithm and those from the exact solution versus the Hard Body Radius to Covariance ratio. These results show about 5% error when the Hard Body Radius is equal to one half the spherical covariance magnitude. The algorithm was then combined with a high fidelity orbit state and error covariance propagator into a useful tool for analyzing low relative velocity nonlinear relative trajectories. The high fidelity propagator is capable of using atmospheric drag, central body gravitational, solar radiation, and third body forces to provide accurate prediction of the relative trajectories and covariance evolution. The covariance propagator also includes a process noise model to ensure realistic evolutions of the error covariance. This paper will describe the integration of the nonlinear probability algorithm and the propagators into a useful collision assessment tool. Finally, a hypothetical case study involving a low relative velocity conjunction between members of the Earth Observation System constellation will be presented.

POOLMS: A computer program for fitting and model selection for two level factorial replication-free experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amling, G. E.; Holms, A. G.

1973-01-01

A computer program is described that performs a statistical multiple-decision procedure called chain pooling. It uses a number of mean squares assigned to error variance that is conditioned on the relative magnitudes of the mean squares. The model selection is done according to user-specified levels of type 1 or type 2 error probabilities.

Analysis of synchronous digital-modulation schemes for satellite communication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takhar, G. S.; Gupta, S. C.

1975-01-01

The multipath communication channel for space communications is modeled as a multiplicative channel. This paper discusses the effects of multiplicative channel processes on the symbol error rate for quadrature modulation (QM) digital modulation schemes. An expression for the upper bound on the probability of error is derived and numerically evaluated. The results are compared with those obtained for additive channels.

Application of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for snow water equivalent retrieval based on passive microwave measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, J.; Durand, M. T.; Vanderjagt, B. J.

2015-12-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a retrieval algorithm based on Bayes' rule, which starts from an initial state of snow/soil parameters, and updates it to a series of new states by comparing the posterior probability of simulated snow microwave signals before and after each time of random walk. It is a realization of the Bayes' rule, which gives an approximation to the probability of the snow/soil parameters in condition of the measured microwave TB signals at different bands. Although this method could solve all snow parameters including depth, density, snow grain size and temperature at the same time, it still needs prior information of these parameters for posterior probability calculation. How the priors will influence the SWE retrieval is a big concern. Therefore, in this paper at first, a sensitivity test will be carried out to study how accurate the snow emission models and how explicit the snow priors need to be to maintain the SWE error within certain amount. The synthetic TB simulated from the measured snow properties plus a 2-K observation error will be used for this purpose. It aims to provide a guidance on the MCMC application under different circumstances. Later, the method will be used for the snowpits at different sites, including Sodankyla, Finland, Churchill, Canada and Colorado, USA, using the measured TB from ground-based radiometers at different bands. Based on the previous work, the error in these practical cases will be studied, and the error sources will be separated and quantified.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data: 1. Estimation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, Robert J.; Helsel, Dennis R.

1986-01-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data. 1. Estimation Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

1986-02-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensoredmore » observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data det. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.« less

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace-level water-quality data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

1984-01-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water-sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations,more » for determining the best-performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least-squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification. 6 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Multi-photon self-error-correction hyperentanglement distribution over arbitrary collective-noise channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Cheng-Yan; Wang, Guan-Yu; Zhang, Hao; Deng, Fu-Guo

2017-01-01

We present a self-error-correction spatial-polarization hyperentanglement distribution scheme for N-photon systems in a hyperentangled Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger state over arbitrary collective-noise channels. In our scheme, the errors of spatial entanglement can be first averted by encoding the spatial-polarization hyperentanglement into the time-bin entanglement with identical polarization and defined spatial modes before it is transmitted over the fiber channels. After transmission over the noisy channels, the polarization errors introduced by the depolarizing noise can be corrected resorting to the time-bin entanglement. Finally, the parties in quantum communication can in principle share maximally hyperentangled states with a success probability of 100%.

Conditions for the optical wireless links bit error ratio determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvíčala, Radek

2017-11-01

To determine the quality of the Optical Wireless Links (OWL), there is necessary to establish the availability and the probability of interruption. This quality can be defined by the optical beam bit error rate (BER). Bit error rate BER presents the percentage of successfully transmitted bits. In practice, BER runs into the problem with the integration time (measuring time) determination. For measuring and recording of BER at OWL the bit error ratio tester (BERT) has been developed. The 1 second integration time for the 64 kbps radio links is mentioned in the accessible literature. However, it is impossible to use this integration time for singularity of coherent beam propagation.

Type I error probability spending for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance with binomial data.

PubMed

Silva, Ivair R

2018-01-15

Type I error probability spending functions are commonly used for designing sequential analysis of binomial data in clinical trials, but it is also quickly emerging for near-continuous sequential analysis of post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. It is well known that, for clinical trials, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, it is still important to minimize the sample size. Unlike in post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance, that is not important. In post-market safety surveillance, specially when the surveillance involves identification of potential signals, the meaningful statistical performance measure to be minimized is the expected sample size when the null hypothesis is rejected. The present paper shows that, instead of the convex Type I error spending shape conventionally used in clinical trials, a concave shape is more indicated for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. This is shown for both, continuous and group sequential analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using the principle of entropy maximization to infer genetic interaction networks from gene expression patterns

PubMed Central

Lezon, Timothy R.; Banavar, Jayanth R.; Cieplak, Marek; Maritan, Amos; Fedoroff, Nina V.

2006-01-01

We describe a method based on the principle of entropy maximization to identify the gene interaction network with the highest probability of giving rise to experimentally observed transcript profiles. In its simplest form, the method yields the pairwise gene interaction network, but it can also be extended to deduce higher-order interactions. Analysis of microarray data from genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae chemostat cultures exhibiting energy metabolic oscillations identifies a gene interaction network that reflects the intracellular communication pathways that adjust cellular metabolic activity and cell division to the limiting nutrient conditions that trigger metabolic oscillations. The success of the present approach in extracting meaningful genetic connections suggests that the maximum entropy principle is a useful concept for understanding living systems, as it is for other complex, nonequilibrium systems. PMID:17138668

Reliability of drivers in urban intersections.

PubMed

Gstalter, Herbert; Fastenmeier, Wolfgang

2010-01-01

The concept of human reliability has been widely used in industrial settings by human factors experts to optimise the person-task fit. Reliability is estimated by the probability that a task will successfully be completed by personnel in a given stage of system operation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a technique used to calculate human error probabilities as the ratio of errors committed to the number of opportunities for that error. To transfer this notion to the measurement of car driver reliability the following components are necessary: a taxonomy of driving tasks, a definition of correct behaviour in each of these tasks, a list of errors as deviations from the correct actions and an adequate observation method to register errors and opportunities for these errors. Use of the SAFE-task analysis procedure recently made it possible to derive driver errors directly from the normative analysis of behavioural requirements. Driver reliability estimates could be used to compare groups of tasks (e.g. different types of intersections with their respective regulations) as well as groups of drivers' or individual drivers' aptitudes. This approach was tested in a field study with 62 drivers of different age groups. The subjects drove an instrumented car and had to complete an urban test route, the main features of which were 18 intersections representing six different driving tasks. The subjects were accompanied by two trained observers who recorded driver errors using standardized observation sheets. Results indicate that error indices often vary between both the age group of drivers and the type of driving task. The highest error indices occurred in the non-signalised intersection tasks and the roundabout, which exactly equals the corresponding ratings of task complexity from the SAFE analysis. A comparison of age groups clearly shows the disadvantage of older drivers, whose error indices in nearly all tasks are significantly higher than those of the other groups. The vast majority of these errors could be explained by high task load in the intersections, as they represent difficult tasks. The discussion shows how reliability estimates can be used in a constructive way to propose changes in car design, intersection layout and regulation as well as driver training.

Delay Analysis and Optimization of Bandwidth Request under Unicast Polling in IEEE 802.16e over Gilbert-Elliot Error Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Eunju; Kim, Kyung Jae; Roijers, Frank; Choi, Bong Dae

In the centralized polling mode in IEEE 802.16e, a base station (BS) polls mobile stations (MSs) for bandwidth reservation in one of three polling modes; unicast, multicast, or broadcast pollings. In unicast polling, the BS polls each individual MS to allow to transmit a bandwidth request packet. This paper presents an analytical model for the unicast polling of bandwidth request in IEEE 802.16e networks over Gilbert-Elliot error channel. We derive the probability distribution for the delay of bandwidth requests due to wireless transmission errors and find the loss probability of request packets due to finite retransmission attempts. By using the delay distribution and the loss probability, we optimize the number of polling slots within a frame and the maximum retransmission number while satisfying QoS on the total loss probability which combines two losses: packet loss due to the excess of maximum retransmission and delay outage loss due to the maximum tolerable delay bound. In addition, we obtain the utilization of polling slots, which is defined as the ratio of the number of polling slots used for the MS's successful transmission to the total number of polling slots used by the MS over a long run time. Analysis results are shown to well match with simulation results. Numerical results give examples of the optimal number of polling slots within a frame and the optimal maximum retransmission number depending on delay bounds, the number of MSs, and the channel conditions.

Many tests of significance: new methods for controlling type I errors.

PubMed

Keselman, H J; Miller, Charles W; Holland, Burt

2011-12-01

There have been many discussions of how Type I errors should be controlled when many hypotheses are tested (e.g., all possible comparisons of means, correlations, proportions, the coefficients in hierarchical models, etc.). By and large, researchers have adopted familywise (FWER) control, though this practice certainly is not universal. Familywise control is intended to deal with the multiplicity issue of computing many tests of significance, yet such control is conservative--that is, less powerful--compared to per test/hypothesis control. The purpose of our article is to introduce the readership, particularly those readers familiar with issues related to controlling Type I errors when many tests of significance are computed, to newer methods that provide protection from the effects of multiple testing, yet are more powerful than familywise controlling methods. Specifically, we introduce a number of procedures that control the k-FWER. These methods--say, 2-FWER instead of 1-FWER (i.e., FWER)--are equivalent to specifying that the probability of 2 or more false rejections is controlled at .05, whereas FWER controls the probability of any (i.e., 1 or more) false rejections at .05. 2-FWER implicitly tolerates 1 false rejection and makes no explicit attempt to control the probability of its occurrence, unlike FWER, which tolerates no false rejections at all. More generally, k-FWER tolerates k - 1 false rejections, but controls the probability of k or more false rejections at α =.05. We demonstrate with two published data sets how more hypotheses can be rejected with k-FWER methods compared to FWER control.

A Track Initiation Method for the Underwater Target Tracking Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dong-dong; Lin, Yang; Zhang, Yao

2018-04-01

A novel efficient track initiation method is proposed for the harsh underwater target tracking environment (heavy clutter and large measurement errors): track splitting, evaluating, pruning and merging method (TSEPM). Track initiation demands that the method should determine the existence and initial state of a target quickly and correctly. Heavy clutter and large measurement errors certainly pose additional difficulties and challenges, which deteriorate and complicate the track initiation in the harsh underwater target tracking environment. There are three primary shortcomings for the current track initiation methods to initialize a target: (a) they cannot eliminate the turbulences of clutter effectively; (b) there may be a high false alarm probability and low detection probability of a track; (c) they cannot estimate the initial state for a new confirmed track correctly. Based on the multiple hypotheses tracking principle and modified logic-based track initiation method, in order to increase the detection probability of a track, track splitting creates a large number of tracks which include the true track originated from the target. And in order to decrease the false alarm probability, based on the evaluation mechanism, track pruning and track merging are proposed to reduce the false tracks. TSEPM method can deal with the track initiation problems derived from heavy clutter and large measurement errors, determine the target's existence and estimate its initial state with the least squares method. What's more, our method is fully automatic and does not require any kind manual input for initializing and tuning any parameter. Simulation results indicate that our new method improves significantly the performance of the track initiation in the harsh underwater target tracking environment.

Detecting non-orthology in the COGs database and other approaches grouping orthologs using genome-specific best hits.

PubMed

Dessimoz, Christophe; Boeckmann, Brigitte; Roth, Alexander C J; Gonnet, Gaston H

2006-01-01

Correct orthology assignment is a critical prerequisite of numerous comparative genomics procedures, such as function prediction, construction of phylogenetic species trees and genome rearrangement analysis. We present an algorithm for the detection of non-orthologs that arise by mistake in current orthology classification methods based on genome-specific best hits, such as the COGs database. The algorithm works with pairwise distance estimates, rather than computationally expensive and error-prone tree-building methods. The accuracy of the algorithm is evaluated through verification of the distribution of predicted cases, case-by-case phylogenetic analysis and comparisons with predictions from other projects using independent methods. Our results show that a very significant fraction of the COG groups include non-orthologs: using conservative parameters, the algorithm detects non-orthology in a third of all COG groups. Consequently, sequence analysis sensitive to correct orthology assignments will greatly benefit from these findings.

Object-oriented sequence analysis: SCL--a C++ class library.

PubMed

Vahrson, W; Hermann, K; Kleffe, J; Wittig, B

1996-04-01

SCL (Sequence Class Library) is a class library written in the C++ programming language. Designed using object-oriented programming principles, SCL consists of classes of objects performing tasks typically needed for analyzing DNA or protein sequences. Among them are very flexible sequence classes, classes accessing databases in various formats, classes managing collections of sequences, as well as classes performing higher-level tasks like calculating a pairwise sequence alignment. SCL also includes classes that provide general programming support, like a dynamically growing array, sets, matrices, strings, classes performing file input/output, and utilities for error handling. By providing these components, SCL fosters an explorative programming style: experimenting with algorithms and alternative implementations is encouraged rather than punished. A description of SCL's overall structure as well as an overview of its classes is given. Important aspects of the work with SCL are discussed in the context of a sample program.

Competitive learning with pairwise constraints.

PubMed

Covões, Thiago F; Hruschka, Eduardo R; Ghosh, Joydeep

2013-01-01

Constrained clustering has been an active research topic since the last decade. Most studies focus on batch-mode algorithms. This brief introduces two algorithms for on-line constrained learning, named on-line linear constrained vector quantization error (O-LCVQE) and constrained rival penalized competitive learning (C-RPCL). The former is a variant of the LCVQE algorithm for on-line settings, whereas the latter is an adaptation of the (on-line) RPCL algorithm to deal with constrained clustering. The accuracy results--in terms of the normalized mutual information (NMI)--from experiments with nine datasets show that the partitions induced by O-LCVQE are competitive with those found by the (batch-mode) LCVQE. Compared with this formidable baseline algorithm, it is surprising that C-RPCL can provide better partitions (in terms of the NMI) for most of the datasets. Also, experiments on a large dataset show that on-line algorithms for constrained clustering can significantly reduce the computational time.

Maximally informative pairwise interactions in networks

PubMed Central

Fitzgerald, Jeffrey D.; Sharpee, Tatyana O.

2010-01-01

Several types of biological networks have recently been shown to be accurately described by a maximum entropy model with pairwise interactions, also known as the Ising model. Here we present an approach for finding the optimal mappings between input signals and network states that allow the network to convey the maximal information about input signals drawn from a given distribution. This mapping also produces a set of linear equations for calculating the optimal Ising-model coupling constants, as well as geometric properties that indicate the applicability of the pairwise Ising model. We show that the optimal pairwise interactions are on average zero for Gaussian and uniformly distributed inputs, whereas they are nonzero for inputs approximating those in natural environments. These nonzero network interactions are predicted to increase in strength as the noise in the response functions of each network node increases. This approach also suggests ways for how interactions with unmeasured parts of the network can be inferred from the parameters of response functions for the measured network nodes. PMID:19905153

Threesomes destabilise certain relationships: multispecies interactions between wood decay fungi in natural resources

PubMed Central

Savoury, Melanie; Toledo, Selin; Kingscott-Edmunds, James; Bettridge, Aimee; Waili, Nasra Al; Boddy, Lynne

2017-01-01

Abstract Understanding interspecific interactions is key to explaining and modelling community development and associated ecosystem function. Most interactions research has focused on pairwise combinations, overlooking the complexity of multispecies communities. This study investigated three-way interactions between saprotrophic fungi in wood and across soil, and indicated that pairwise combinations are often inaccurate predictors of the outcomes of multispecies competition in wood block interactions. This inconsistency was especially true of intransitive combinations, resulting in increased species coexistence within the resource. Furthermore, the addition of a third competitor frequently destabilised the otherwise consistent outcomes of pairwise combinations in wood blocks, which occasionally resulted in altered resource decomposition rates, depending on the relative decay abilities of the species involved. Conversely, interaction outcomes in soil microcosms were unaffected by the presence of a third combatant. Multispecies interactions promoted species diversity within natural resources, and made community dynamics less consistent than could be predicted from pairwise interaction studies. PMID:28175239

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

2011-05-01

The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Airborne radar technology for windshear detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hibey, Joseph L.; Khalaf, Camille S.

1988-01-01

The objectives and accomplishments of the two-and-a-half year effort to describe how returns from on-board Doppler radar are to be used to detect the presence of a wind shear are reported. The problem is modeled as one of first passage in terms of state variables, the state estimates are generated by a bank of extended Kalman filters working in parallel, and the decision strategy involves the use of a voting algorithm for a series of likelihood ratio tests. The performance issue for filtering is addressed in terms of error-covariance reduction and filter divergence, and the performance issue for detection is addressed in terms of using a probability measure transformation to derive theoretical expressions for the error probabilities of a false alarm and a miss.

77 FR 15376 - State Median Income Estimates for a Four-Person Household: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-15

... contact the Census Bureau's Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division at (301) 763- 3243. Under the... the use of probability sampling to create the sample. For additional information about the accuracy of... consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the sample. \\2\\ These...

Image Security

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-01-01

34. twenty-first century. These papers illustrate topics such as a development ofvirtual environment applications, different uses ofVRML in information system...interfaces, an examination of research in virtual reality environment interfaces, and five approaches to supporting changes’ in virtuaI environments...we get false negatives that contribute to the probability of false rejection Prrj). { l � Taking these error probabilities into account, we define a

"Finding Useful Questions: On Bayesian Diagnosticity, Probability, Impact, and Information Gain": Correction to Nelson (2005)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Jonathan D.

2007-01-01

Reports an error in "Finding Useful Questions: On Bayesian Diagnosticity, Probability, Impact, and Information Gain" by Jonathan D. Nelson (Psychological Review, 2005[Oct], Vol 112[4], 979-999). In Table 13, the data should indicate that 7% of females had short hair and 93% of females had long hair. The calculations and discussion in the article…

Frequency, probability, and prediction: easy solutions to cognitive illusions?

PubMed

Griffin, D; Buehler, R

1999-02-01

Many errors in probabilistic judgment have been attributed to people's inability to think in statistical terms when faced with information about a single case. Prior theoretical analyses and empirical results imply that the errors associated with case-specific reasoning may be reduced when people make frequentistic predictions about a set of cases. In studies of three previously identified cognitive biases, we find that frequency-based predictions are different from-but no better than-case-specific judgments of probability. First, in studies of the "planning fallacy, " we compare the accuracy of aggregate frequency and case-specific probability judgments in predictions of students' real-life projects. When aggregate and single-case predictions are collected from different respondents, there is little difference between the two: Both are overly optimistic and show little predictive validity. However, in within-subject comparisons, the aggregate judgments are significantly more conservative than the single-case predictions, though still optimistically biased. Results from studies of overconfidence in general knowledge and base rate neglect in categorical prediction underline a general conclusion. Frequentistic predictions made for sets of events are no more statistically sophisticated, nor more accurate, than predictions made for individual events using subjective probability. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Disparity between online and offline tests in accelerated aging tests of LED lamps under electric stress.

PubMed

Wang, Yao; Jing, Lei; Ke, Hong-Liang; Hao, Jian; Gao, Qun; Wang, Xiao-Xun; Sun, Qiang; Xu, Zhi-Jun

2016-09-20

The accelerated aging tests under electric stress for one type of LED lamp are conducted, and the differences between online and offline tests of the degradation of luminous flux are studied in this paper. The transformation of the two test modes is achieved with an adjustable AC voltage stabilized power source. Experimental results show that the exponential fitting of the luminous flux degradation in online tests possesses a higher fitting degree for most lamps, and the degradation rate of the luminous flux by online tests is always lower than that by offline tests. Bayes estimation and Weibull distribution are used to calculate the failure probabilities under the accelerated voltages, and then the reliability of the lamps under rated voltage of 220 V is estimated by use of the inverse power law model. Results show that the relative error of the lifetime estimation by offline tests increases as the failure probability decreases, and it cannot be neglected when the failure probability is less than 1%. The relative errors of lifetime estimation are 7.9%, 5.8%, 4.2%, and 3.5%, at the failure probabilities of 0.1%, 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively.

DNA double-strand–break complexity levels and their possible contributions to the probability for error-prone processing and repair pathway choice

PubMed Central

Schipler, Agnes; Iliakis, George

2013-01-01

Although the DNA double-strand break (DSB) is defined as a rupture in the double-stranded DNA molecule that can occur without chemical modification in any of the constituent building blocks, it is recognized that this form is restricted to enzyme-induced DSBs. DSBs generated by physical or chemical agents can include at the break site a spectrum of base alterations (lesions). The nature and number of such chemical alterations define the complexity of the DSB and are considered putative determinants for repair pathway choice and the probability that errors will occur during this processing. As the pathways engaged in DSB processing show distinct and frequently inherent propensities for errors, pathway choice also defines the error-levels cells opt to accept. Here, we present a classification of DSBs on the basis of increasing complexity and discuss how complexity may affect processing, as well as how it may cause lethal or carcinogenic processing errors. By critically analyzing the characteristics of DSB repair pathways, we suggest that all repair pathways can in principle remove lesions clustering at the DSB but are likely to fail when they encounter clusters of DSBs that cause a local form of chromothripsis. In the same framework, we also analyze the rational of DSB repair pathway choice. PMID:23804754

Impact of Data Assimilation on Cost-Accuracy Tradeoff in Multi-Fidelity Models at the Example of an Infiltration Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinsbeck, Michael; Tartakovsky, Daniel

2015-04-01

Infiltration into top soil can be described by alternative models with different degrees of fidelity: Richards equation and the Green-Ampt model. These models typically contain uncertain parameters and forcings, rendering predictions of the state variables uncertain as well. Within the probabilistic framework, solutions of these models are given in terms of their probability density functions (PDFs) that, in the presence of data, can be treated as prior distributions. The assimilation of soil moisture data into model predictions, e.g., via a Bayesian updating of solution PDFs, poses a question of model selection: Given a significant difference in computational cost, is a lower-fidelity model preferable to its higher-fidelity counter-part? We investigate this question in the context of heterogeneous porous media, whose hydraulic properties are uncertain. While low-fidelity (reduced-complexity) models introduce a model error, their moderate computational cost makes it possible to generate more realizations, which reduces the (e.g., Monte Carlo) sampling or stochastic error. The ratio between these two errors determines the model with the smallest total error. We found assimilation of measurements of a quantity of interest (the soil moisture content, in our example) to decrease the model error, increasing the probability that the predictive accuracy of a reduced-complexity model does not fall below that of its higher-fidelity counterpart.

Reducing number entry errors: solving a widespread, serious problem.

PubMed

Thimbleby, Harold; Cairns, Paul

2010-10-06

Number entry is ubiquitous: it is required in many fields including science, healthcare, education, government, mathematics and finance. People entering numbers are to be expected to make errors, but shockingly few systems make any effort to detect, block or otherwise manage errors. Worse, errors may be ignored but processed in arbitrary ways, with unintended results. A standard class of error (defined in the paper) is an 'out by 10 error', which is easily made by miskeying a decimal point or a zero. In safety-critical domains, such as drug delivery, out by 10 errors generally have adverse consequences. Here, we expose the extent of the problem of numeric errors in a very wide range of systems. An analysis of better error management is presented: under reasonable assumptions, we show that the probability of out by 10 errors can be halved by better user interface design. We provide a demonstration user interface to show that the approach is practical.To kill an error is as good a service as, and sometimes even better than, the establishing of a new truth or fact. (Charles Darwin 1879 [2008], p. 229).

Analysis of the Hessian for Inverse Scattering Problems. Part 3. Inverse Medium Scattering of Electromagnetic Waves in Three Dimensions

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

small data noise and model error, the discrete Hessian can be approximated by a low-rank matrix. This in turn enables fast solution of an appropriately...implication of the compactness of the Hessian is that for small data noise and model error, the discrete Hessian can be approximated by a low-rank matrix. This...probability distribution is given by the inverse of the Hessian of the negative log likelihood function. For Gaussian data noise and model error, this

Molecular dynamics with rigid bodies: Alternative formulation and assessment of its limitations when employed to simulate liquid water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silveira, Ana J.; Abreu, Charlles R. A.

2017-09-01

Sets of atoms collectively behaving as rigid bodies are often used in molecular dynamics to model entire molecules or parts thereof. This is a coarse-graining strategy that eliminates degrees of freedom and supposedly admits larger time steps without abandoning the atomistic character of a model. In this paper, we rely on a particular factorization of the rotation matrix to simplify the mechanical formulation of systems containing rigid bodies. We then propose a new derivation for the exact solution of torque-free rotations, which are employed as part of a symplectic numerical integration scheme for rigid-body dynamics. We also review methods for calculating pressure in systems of rigid bodies with pairwise-additive potentials and periodic boundary conditions. Finally, simulations of liquid phases, with special focus on water, are employed to analyze the numerical aspects of the proposed methodology. Our results show that energy drift is avoided for time step sizes up to 5 fs, but only if a proper smoothing is applied to the interatomic potentials. Despite this, the effects of discretization errors are relevant, even for smaller time steps. These errors induce, for instance, a systematic failure of the expected equipartition of kinetic energy between translational and rotational degrees of freedom.

On the integration of financial markets: How strong is the evidence from five international stock markets?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sónia R.

2015-07-01

This paper examines the integration of financial markets using data from five international stock markets in the context of globalization. The theoretical basis of this study relies on the price theory and the Law of One Price, which was adjusted to the framework of financial markets. When price levels are nonstationary, cointegration and the error correction model constitute a powerful tool for the empirical examination of market integration. The error correction model provides a fully dynamic framework that allows to separating the long and the short run effects of the integration process. A dataset encompassing the daily stock price series of the PSI 20 (Portugal), IBEX 35 (Spain), FTSE 100 (UK), NIKKEI 225 (Japan) and SP 500 (US) indices from January 4th 1999 to September 19th 2014 is employed. The results highlight that these five stock markets are linked together by just one long-run relationship, although short-run movements are also present, which causes distinct deviations from the long-run equilibrium relationship. Endogeneity prevails in the system as a whole. While market integration in the sense of the Law of One Price holds, pairwise full price transmission has limited evidence. The results therefore show that stock market price movements are highly nonlinear and complex.

16p11.2 Deletion mice display cognitive deficits in touchscreen learning and novelty recognition tasks.

PubMed

Yang, Mu; Lewis, Freeman C; Sarvi, Michael S; Foley, Gillian M; Crawley, Jacqueline N

2015-12-01

Chromosomal 16p11.2 deletion syndrome frequently presents with intellectual disabilities, speech delays, and autism. Here we investigated the Dolmetsch line of 16p11.2 heterozygous (+/-) mice on a range of cognitive tasks with different neuroanatomical substrates. Robust novel object recognition deficits were replicated in two cohorts of 16p11.2+/- mice, confirming previous findings. A similarly robust deficit in object location memory was discovered in +/-, indicating impaired spatial novelty recognition. Generalizability of novelty recognition deficits in +/- mice extended to preference for social novelty. Robust learning deficits and cognitive inflexibility were detected using Bussey-Saksida touchscreen operant chambers. During acquisition of pairwise visual discrimination, +/- mice required significantly more training trials to reach criterion than wild-type littermates (+/+), and made more errors and correction errors than +/+. In the reversal phase, all +/+ reached criterion, whereas most +/- failed to reach criterion by the 30-d cutoff. Contextual and cued fear conditioning were normal in +/-. These cognitive phenotypes may be relevant to some aspects of cognitive impairments in humans with 16p11.2 deletion, and support the use of 16p11.2+/- mice as a model system for discovering treatments for cognitive impairments in 16p11.2 deletion syndrome. © 2015 Yang et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

On stable Pareto laws in a hierarchical model of economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chebotarev, A. M.

2007-01-01

This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in the opposite direction. The price-invariance of transactions means that the probability of a pairwise interaction is a function of the ratio of incomes, which is independent of the price scale or absolute income level. These two features characterize the hierarchical model. The income distribution in this class of models is a well-defined double-Pareto function, which possesses Pareto tails for the upper and lower incomes. For gross and net upper incomes, the model predicts definite values of the Pareto exponents, agross and anet, which are stable with respect to quantitative variation of the pair-interaction. The Pareto exponents are also stable with respect to the choice of a demand function within two classes of status-dependent behavior of agents: linear demand ( agross=1, anet=2) and unlimited slowly varying demand ( agross=anet=1). For the sigmoidal demand that describes limited returns, agross=anet=1+α, with some α>0 satisfying a transcendental equation. The low-income distribution may be singular or vanishing in the neighborhood of the minimal income; in any case, it is L1-integrable and its Pareto exponent is given explicitly. The theory used in the present study is based on a simple balance equation and new results from multiplicative Markov chains and exponential moments of random geometric progressions.

Cluster analysis of European Y-chromosomal STR haplotypes using the discrete Laplace method.

PubMed

Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Eriksen, Poul Svante; Morling, Niels

2014-07-01

The European Y-chromosomal short tandem repeat (STR) haplotype distribution has previously been analysed in various ways. Here, we introduce a new way of analysing population substructure using a new method based on clustering within the discrete Laplace exponential family that models the probability distribution of the Y-STR haplotypes. Creating a consistent statistical model of the haplotypes enables us to perform a wide range of analyses. Previously, haplotype frequency estimation using the discrete Laplace method has been validated. In this paper we investigate how the discrete Laplace method can be used for cluster analysis to further validate the discrete Laplace method. A very important practical fact is that the calculations can be performed on a normal computer. We identified two sub-clusters of the Eastern and Western European Y-STR haplotypes similar to results of previous studies. We also compared pairwise distances (between geographically separated samples) with those obtained using the AMOVA method and found good agreement. Further analyses that are impossible with AMOVA were made using the discrete Laplace method: analysis of the homogeneity in two different ways and calculating marginal STR distributions. We found that the Y-STR haplotypes from e.g. Finland were relatively homogeneous as opposed to the relatively heterogeneous Y-STR haplotypes from e.g. Lublin, Eastern Poland and Berlin, Germany. We demonstrated that the observed distributions of alleles at each locus were similar to the expected ones. We also compared pairwise distances between geographically separated samples from Africa with those obtained using the AMOVA method and found good agreement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diel variation in detection and vocalization rates of king (Rallus elegans) and clapper (Rallus crepitans) rails in intracoastal waterways

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stiffler, Lydia L.; Anderson, James T.; Welsh, Amy B.; Harding, Sergio R.; Costanzo, Gary R.; Katzner, Todd

2017-01-01

Surveys for secretive marsh birds could be improved with refinements to address regional and species-specific variation in detection probabilities and optimal times of day to survey. Diel variation in relation to naïve occupancy, detection rates, and vocalization rates of King (Rallus elegans) and Clapper (R. crepitans) rails were studied in intracoastal waterways in Virginia, USA. Autonomous acoustic devices recorded vocalizations of King and Clapper rails at 75 locations for 48-hr periods within a marsh complex. Naïve King and Clapper rail occupancy did not vary hourly at either the marsh or the study area level. Combined King and Clapper rail detections and vocalizations varied across marshes, decreased as the sampling season progressed, and, for detections, was greatest during low rising tides (P < 0.01). Hourly variation in vocalization and detection rates did not show a pattern but occurred between 7.8% of pairwise comparisons for detections and 10.5% of pairwise comparisons for vocalizations (P < 0.01). Higher rates of detections and vocalizations occurred during the hours of 00:00–00:59, 05:00–05:59, 14:00–15:59, and lower rates during the hours of 07:00–09:59. Although statistically significant, because there were no patterns in these hourly differences, they may not be biologically relevant and are of little use to management. In fact, these findings demonstrate that surveys for King and Clapper rails in Virginia intracoastal waterways may be effectively conducted throughout the day.

Molecular characterization of echovirus 30-associated outbreak of aseptic meningitis in Korea in 2008.

PubMed

Choi, Young Jin; Park, Kwi Sung; Baek, Kyoung Ah; Jung, Eun Hye; Nam, Hae Seon; Kim, Yong Bae; Park, Joon Soo

2010-03-01

Evaluation of the primary etiologic agents that cause aseptic meningitis outbreaks may provide valuable information regarding the prevention and management of aseptic meningitis. In Korea, an outbreak of aseptic meningitis caused by echovirus type 30 (E30) occurred from May to October in 2008. In order to determine the etiologic agent, CSF and/or stool specimens from 140 children hospitalized for aseptic meningitis at Soonchunhyang University Cheonan Hospital between June and October of 2008 were tested for virus isolation and identification. E30 accounted for 61.7% (37 cases) and echovirus 6 accounted for 21.7% (13 cases) of all the human enteroviruses (HEVs) isolates (60 cases in total). For the molecular characterization of the isolates, the VP1 gene sequence of 18 Korean E30 isolates was compared pairwise using the MegAlign with 34 reference strains from the GenBank database. The pairwise comparison of the nucleotide sequences of the VP1 genes demonstrated that the sequences of the Korean strains differed from those of lineage groups A, B, C, D, E, F and G. Reconstruction of the phylogenetic tree based on the complete VP1 nucleotide sequences resulted in a monophyletic tree, with eight clustered lineage groups. All Korean isolates were segregated from other lineage groups, thus suggesting that the Korean strains were a distinct lineage of E30, and a probable cause of this outbreak. This manuscript is the first report, to the best of our knowledge, of the molecular characteristics of E30 strains associated with an aseptic meningitis outbreak in Korea, and their respective phylogenetic relationships.

Prediction-error variance in Bayesian model updating: a comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadollahi, Parisa; Li, Jian; Huang, Yong

2017-04-01

In Bayesian model updating, the likelihood function is commonly formulated by stochastic embedding in which the maximum information entropy probability model of prediction error variances plays an important role and it is Gaussian distribution subject to the first two moments as constraints. The selection of prediction error variances can be formulated as a model class selection problem, which automatically involves a trade-off between the average data-fit of the model class and the information it extracts from the data. Therefore, it is critical for the robustness in the updating of the structural model especially in the presence of modeling errors. To date, three ways of considering prediction error variances have been seem in the literature: 1) setting constant values empirically, 2) estimating them based on the goodness-of-fit of the measured data, and 3) updating them as uncertain parameters by applying Bayes' Theorem at the model class level. In this paper, the effect of different strategies to deal with the prediction error variances on the model updating performance is investigated explicitly. A six-story shear building model with six uncertain stiffness parameters is employed as an illustrative example. Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to draw samples of the posterior probability density function of the structure model parameters as well as the uncertain prediction variances. The different levels of modeling uncertainty and complexity are modeled through three FE models, including a true model, a model with more complexity, and a model with modeling error. Bayesian updating is performed for the three FE models considering the three aforementioned treatments of the prediction error variances. The effect of number of measurements on the model updating performance is also examined in the study. The results are compared based on model class assessment and indicate that updating the prediction error variances as uncertain parameters at the model class level produces more robust results especially when the number of measurement is small.