Pandemic and public health controls: toward an equitable compensation system.

PubMed

Ly, Theresa; Selgelid, M J; Kerridge, I

2007-10-01

There is increasing global concern about the potential impact of pandemic infections, including influenza, SARS and bioterrorist attacks involving infectious diseases. Many countries have prepared plans for responding to a major pandemic. In Australia, the Federal and State pandemic plans include measures such as contact tracing, ensuring availability of antimicrobials, quarantine and social distancing. Many of these measures would involve severe restrictions on individual citizens and small businesses. Issues of compensation for cooperation and compliance with pandemic plans need to be addressed in policy discussion. The instrumental benefits of compensation in the event of a pandemic have not been sufficiently recognised. Greater attention paid now to mechanisms to compensate individual and business costs associated with compliance would increase trust in government pandemic plans, encourage compliance and reduce the health and economic impact of a pandemic.

Preparing ICUs for pandemics.

PubMed

Gabriel, Lucinda E K; Webb, Steve A R

2013-10-01

Influenza pandemics occur intermittently and represent an existential global infectious diseases threat. The purpose of this review is to describe clinical and research preparedness for future pandemics. Pandemic influenza typically results in large numbers of individuals with life-threatening pneumonia requiring treatment in ICUs. Clinical preparedness of ICUs relates to planning to provide increased 'surge' capacity to meet increased demand and requires consideration of staffing, equipment and consumables, bed-space availability and management systems. Research preparedness is also necessary, as timely clinical research has the potential to change the trajectory of a pandemic. The clinical research response during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic was suboptimal. Better planning is necessary to optimize both clinical and research responses to future pandemics.

The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response

PubMed Central

Wu, Joseph T; Cowling, Benjamin J

2011-01-01

Summary Influenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a real-time tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serologic data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. PMID:21727183

Antibody responses to influenza viruses in paediatric patients and their contacts at the onset of the 2009 pandemic in Mexico.

PubMed

Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe; Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Herrera-Castillo, Cristina; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Solórzano-Santos, Fortino; Vázquez-Rosales, Guillermo; Espitia-Pinzón, Clara; Zamudio-Lugo, Irma; Meza-Chávez, Abigail; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

2015-03-15

On April 2009, the Mexican Ministry of Health received notification of cases of severe pneumonia mostly affecting young healthy people; this was the beginning of the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The nature of the immune response to the influenza A(H1N1)2009 pandemic strain in Mexico at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak has not been completely defined. We describe the serological response to the 2009 pandemic influenza virus in paediatric patients with influenza-like illness, their household contacts (HHCs), and exposed health-care workers (HCWs) at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak in Mexico City. thirty pre-epidemic and 129 epidemic samples were collected and serum antibodies were measured against A(H1N1)2009 pandemic virus and two non-pandemic swine influenza viruses by an haemagglutination inhibition assay . 91% (29/32) of the convalescence samples from confirmed patients had an antibody titre ≥ 10 (GMT 25), 63% (41/65) of the HHCs (GMT 12), 41% of HCWs (GMT 6) and 13% (4/30) of pre-epidemic samples (GMT 6) for the pandemic influenza virus. Of the 32 confirmed cases, 60% had an antibody titre ≥ 40 for the pandemic strain, 53% for the A/swine/Iowa(H1N1) virus (GMT 62) and 43% for the A/swine/Texas(H3N2) virus (GMT 66). The antibody response to 2009 pandemic influenza virus was widespread in convalescence samples from patients with confirmed pandemic influenza infection but the GMT was below the protective titre. There was no evidence that antibodies to the swine influenza viruses had cross-protective effect against the 2009 pandemic influenza virus.

Did pandemic preparedness aid the response to pandemic (H1N1) 2009? A qualitative analysis in seven countries within the WHO European Region.

PubMed

Hashim, Ahmed; Jean-Gilles, Lucie; Hegermann-Lindencrone, Michala; Shaw, Ian; Brown, Caroline; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan

2012-08-01

Although the 2009-2010 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was of low severity compared with other pandemics of the 20th century, this pandemic was the first opportunity for countries to implement a real-life pandemic response. The aim of the project was to review the extent to which these plans and planning activities proved useful and to identify areas of pandemic planning that require further strengthening. We randomly selected seven countries within the WHO European Region to participate in a comprehensive, qualitative study to evaluate the pandemic preparedness activities undertaken prior to March 2009 compared with the subsequent pandemic responses mounted from May 2009 onwards. Research teams visited each country and interviewed stakeholders from health and civil response ministries, national public health authorities, regional authorities and family and hospital doctors. The following six consistent themes were identified as essential elements of successful pandemic preparedness activities: communication, coordination, capacity building, adaptability/flexibility, leadership and mutual support. Regarding future pandemic preparedness activities, an emphasis on these areas should be retained and planning for the following activities should be improved: communication (i.e., with the public and health professionals); coordination of vaccine procurement and logistics; flexibility of response and hospital surveillance. Pandemic preparedness activities were successfully undertaken in the WHO European Region prior to the 2009 pandemic. These activities proved to be effective and were generally appropriate for the response provided in 2009. Nevertheless, consistent themes also emerged regarding specific areas of under planning that were common to most of the surveyed countries. Copyright © 2012 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model to evaluate mass vaccination against pneumococcus as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Crowe, Sonya; Utley, Martin; Walker, Guy; Grove, Peter; Pagel, Christina

2011-07-12

A mathematical model has been developed for the purpose of evaluating vaccination against pneumococcus as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza. As the characteristics of a future pandemic cannot be known in advance, three distinct pandemic scenarios were considered, corresponding to a 1918-like pandemic, a 1957/1968-like pandemic and a 2009-like pandemic. Model estimates for each of these pandemic scenarios are presented for two options of vaccination programme; universal vaccination of the entire UK population and vaccination only of those people considered to be at heightened risk of developing influenza complications. We find that the benefits of each option (in terms of estimated number of deaths and hospital admissions avoided and the courses of antibiotics saved) are high in a 1918-like pandemic and very small in a 2009-like pandemic. Given that the decision regarding deployment of the counter measure would occur prior to knowledge of the flu-strain characteristics being available, we also present the weighted average of the outcomes from the three pandemic scenarios. Based on the historical occurrence of pandemics over the last 100 years, the weighted average of outcomes is an estimated 1400 deaths prevented by the universal vaccination option and 400 deaths saved by the targeted vaccination option (at a cost of approximately 400 million and 50 million courses of vaccine respectively). Finally, the longer term implications of using PPV as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza have been considered by estimating the expected number of courses of vaccine bought and the expected number of deaths and hospital admissions prevented over time under each policy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pandemic planning in the shipping industry--lessons learnt from the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.

PubMed

Bunyan, Kate

2011-01-01

The events around the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic highlighted the need for better planning to ensure protection of those on vessels, protection for ports of call, and protection of business assets (business continuity). The variety of stakeholders involved in the management of a pandemic made it difficult to achieve a cohesive plan during the event itself. By considering the actions during the last pandemic, and the literature available for the shipping industry on pandemic planning, a pathway to better preparation is suggested.

Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

PubMed Central

Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

Evolution of 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses during the pandemic correlates with increased viral pathogenicity and transmissibility in the ferret model.

PubMed

Otte, Anna; Marriott, Anthony C; Dreier, Carola; Dove, Brian; Mooren, Kyra; Klingen, Thorsten R; Sauter, Martina; Thompson, Katy-Anne; Bennett, Allan; Klingel, Karin; van Riel, Debby; McHardy, Alice C; Carroll, Miles W; Gabriel, Gülsah

2016-06-24

There is increasing evidence that 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses have evolved after pandemic onset giving rise to severe epidemics in subsequent waves. However, it still remains unclear which viral determinants might have contributed to disease severity after pandemic initiation. Here, we show that distinct mutations in the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus genome have occurred with increased frequency after pandemic declaration. Among those, a mutation in the viral hemagglutinin was identified that increases 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus binding to human-like α2,6-linked sialic acids. Moreover, these mutations conferred increased viral replication in the respiratory tract and elevated respiratory droplet transmission between ferrets. Thus, our data show that 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses have evolved after pandemic onset giving rise to novel virus variants that enhance viral replicative fitness and respiratory droplet transmission in a mammalian animal model. These findings might help to improve surveillance efforts to assess the pandemic risk by emerging influenza viruses.

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-09-01

Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Deaths from bacterial pneumonia during 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Brundage, John F; Shanks, G Dennis

2008-08-01

Deaths during the 1918-19 influenza pandemic have been attributed to a hypervirulent influenza strain. Hence, preparations for the next pandemic focus almost exclusively on vaccine prevention and antiviral treatment for infections with a novel influenza strain. However, we hypothesize that infections with the pandemic strain generally caused self-limited (rarely fatal) illnesses that enabled colonizing strains of bacteria to produce highly lethal pneumonias. This sequential-infection hypothesis is consistent with characteristics of the 1918-19 pandemic, contemporaneous expert opinion, and current knowledge regarding the pathophysiologic effects of influenza viruses and their interactions with respiratory bacteria. This hypothesis suggests opportunities for prevention and treatment during the next pandemic (e.g., with bacterial vaccines and antimicrobial drugs), particularly if a pandemic strain-specific vaccine is unavailable or inaccessible to isolated, crowded, or medically underserved populations.

Information technology systems for critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic: a review of current systems.

PubMed

Bandayrel, Kristofer; Lapinsky, Stephen; Christian, Michael

2013-06-01

To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records.

PubMed

Potter, Chris W; Jennings, Roy

2011-10-01

To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Clinical Research Networks to Assess Severity of an Emerging Influenza Pandemic.

PubMed

Simonsen, Lone; Higgs, Elizabeth; Taylor, Robert J; Wentworth, Deborah; Cozzi-Lepri, Al; Pett, Sarah; Dwyer, Dominic E; Davey, Richard; Lynfield, Ruth; Losso, Marcelo; Morales, Kathleen; Glesby, Marshall J; Weckx, Jozef; Carey, Dianne; Lane, Cliff; Lundgren, Jens

2018-05-08

Early clinical severity assessments during the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1) overestimated clinical severity due to selection bias and other factors. We retrospectively investigated how to use data from the International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, a global clinical influenza research network, to make more accurate case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates early in a future pandemic, an essential part of pandemic response. We estimated the CFR of medically attended influenza (CFRMA) as the product of probability of hospitalization given confirmed outpatient influenza and the probability of death given hospitalization with confirmed influenza for the pandemic (2009-2011) and post-pandemic (2012-2015) periods. We used literature survey results on health-seeking behavior to convert that estimate to CFR among all infected persons (CFRAR). During the pandemic period, 5.0% (3.1%-6.9%) of 561 pH1N1-positive outpatients were hospitalized. Of 282 pH1N1-positive inpatients, 8.5% (5.7%-12.6%) died. CFRMA for pH1N1 was 0.4% (0.2%-0.6%) in the pandemic period 2009-2011 but declined 5-fold in young adults during the post-pandemic period compared to the level of seasonal influenza in the post-pandemic period 2012-2015. CFR for influenza-negative patients did not change over time. We estimated the 2009 pandemic CFRAR to be 0.025%, 16-fold lower than CFRMA. Data from a clinical research network yielded accurate pandemic severity estimates, including increased severity among younger people. Going forward, clinical research networks with a global presence and standardized protocols would substantially aid rapid assessment of clinical severity. NCT01056354 and NCT010561.

Measuring the potential of individual airports for pandemic spread over the world airline network.

PubMed

Lawyer, Glenn

2016-02-09

Massive growth in human mobility has dramatically increased the risk and rate of pandemic spread. Macro-level descriptors of the topology of the World Airline Network (WAN) explains middle and late stage dynamics of pandemic spread mediated by this network, but necessarily regard early stage variation as stochastic. We propose that much of this early stage variation can be explained by appropriately characterizing the local network topology surrounding an outbreak's debut location. Based on a model of the WAN derived from public data, we measure for each airport the expected force of infection (AEF) which a pandemic originating at that airport would generate, assuming an epidemic process which transmits from airport to airport via scheduled commercial flights. We observe, for a subset of world airports, the minimum transmission rate at which a disease becomes pandemically competent at each airport. We also observe, for a larger subset, the time until a pandemically competent outbreak achieves pandemic status given its debut location. Observations are generated using a highly sophisticated metapopulation reaction-diffusion simulator under a disease model known to well replicate the 2009 influenza pandemic. The robustness of the AEF measure to model misspecification is examined by degrading the underlying model WAN. AEF powerfully explains pandemic risk, showing correlation of 0.90 to the transmission level needed to give a disease pandemic competence, and correlation of 0.85 to the delay until an outbreak becomes a pandemic. The AEF is robust to model misspecification. For 97 % of airports, removing 15 % of airports from the model changes their AEF metric by less than 1 %. Appropriately summarizing the size, shape, and diversity of an airport's local neighborhood in the WAN accurately explains much of the macro-level stochasticity in pandemic outcomes.

Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in 66 Large Cities in the United States in Years Surrounding the 1918 Pandemic

PubMed Central

Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Viboud, Cécile; Chowell, Gerardo

2011-01-01

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; P<0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (ρ = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ∼0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. PMID:21886792

Analysis of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 outcomes in 19 European countries: association with completeness of national strategic plans

PubMed Central

Meeyai, Aronrag; Cooper, Ben S; Coker, Richard

2013-01-01

Objective To describe changes in reported influenza activity associated with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in European countries and determine whether there is a correlation between these changes and completeness of national strategic pandemic preparedness. Design A retrospective correlational study. Setting Countries were included if their national strategic plans had previously been analysed and if weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) data from sentinel networks between week 21, 2006 and week 20, 2010 were more than 50% complete. Outcome measures For each country we calculated three outcomes: the percentage change in ILI peak height during the pandemic relative to the prepandemic mean; the timing of the ILI peak and the percentage change in total cases relative to the prepandemic mean. Correlations between these outcomes and completeness of a country's national strategic pandemic preparedness plan were assessed using the Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient. Results Nineteen countries were included. The ILI peak occurred earlier than the mean seasonal peak in 17 countries. In 14 countries the pandemic peak was higher than the seasonal peak, though the difference was large only in Norway, the UK and Greece. Nine countries experienced more total ILI cases during the pandemic compared with the mean for prepandemic years. Five countries experienced two distinct pandemic peaks. There was no clear pattern of correlation between overall completeness of national strategic plans and pandemic influenza outcome measures and no evidence of association between these outcomes and components of pandemic plans that might plausibly affect influenza outcomes (public health interventions, vaccination, antiviral use, public communication). Amongst the 17 countries with a clear pandemic peak, only the correlation between planning for essential services and change in total ILI cases significantly differed from zero: correlation coefficient (95% CI) 0.50 (0.02, 0.79). Conclusions The diversity of pandemic influenza outcomes across Europe is not explained by the marked variation in the completeness of pandemic plans. PMID:23524042

Were Equatorial Regions Less Affected by the 2009 Influenza Pandemic? The Brazilian Experience

PubMed Central

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Moura, Fernanda E. A.; Fernandes, Roberto M.; Carvalho, Marcia L.; Alonso, Wladimir J.

2012-01-01

Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5°N to −35°S) by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the assessment of the role of immunological, socioeconomic and environmental drivers of the transmissibility and severity of this pandemic. PMID:22870262

Preparing for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dittbenner, Richard

2009-01-01

This article discusses the things college leaders should know and do in case of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The author talks about four principles that will guide college leaders in developing a pandemic influenza plan and presents the 10 elements of an effective college pandemic planning process.

Sero-Prevalence and Genetic Diversity of Pandemic V. parahaemolyticus Strains Occurring at a Global Scale.

PubMed

Han, Chongxu; Tang, Hui; Ren, Chuanli; Zhu, Xiaoping; Han, Dongsheng

2016-01-01

Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus is an emerging public health concern as it has caused numerous gastroenteritis outbreaks worldwide. Currently, the absence of a global overview of the phenotypic and molecular characteristics of pandemic strains restricts our overall understanding of these strains, especially for environmental strains. To generate a global picture of the sero-prevalence and genetic diversity of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus, pandemic isolates from worldwide collections were selected and analyzed in this study. After a thorough analysis, we found that the pandemic isolates represented 49 serotypes, which are widely distributed in 22 countries across four continents (Asia, Europe, America and Africa). All of these serotypes were detected in clinical isolates but only nine in environmental isolates. O3:K6 was the most widely disseminated serotype, followed by O3:KUT, while the others were largely restricted to certain countries. The countries with the most abundant pandemic serotypes were China (26 serotypes), India (24 serotypes), Thailand (15 serotypes) and Vietnam (10 serotypes). Based on MLST analysis, 14 sequence types (STs) were identified among the pandemic strains, nine of which fell within clonal complex (CC) 3. ST3 and ST305 were the only two STs that have been reported in environmental pandemic strains. Pandemic ST3 has caused a wide range of infections in as many as 16 countries. Substantial serotypic diversity was mainly observed among isolates within pandemic ST3, including as many as 12 combinations of O/K serotypes. At the allele level, the dtdS and pntA, two loci that perfectly conserved in CC3, displayed a degree of polymorphism in some pandemic strains. In conclusion, we provide a comprehensive understanding of sero-prevalence and genetic differentiation of clinical and environmental pandemic isolates collected from around the world. Although, further studies are needed to delineate the specific mechanisms by which the pandemic strains evolve and spread, the findings in this study are helpful when seeking countermeasures to reduce the spread of V. parahaemolyticus in endemic areas.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V.; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, Victor A.

2011-01-01

Background Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. Methods We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. Results The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Conclusions Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave. PMID:21712984

The Evaluations of Swine Flu Magnitudes in TV News: A Comparative Analysis of Paired Influenza Pandemics.

PubMed

Pan, Po-Lin; Meng, Juan

2015-01-01

This study examined how major TV news networks covered two flu pandemics in 1976 and 2009 in terms of news frames, mortality exemplars, mortality subject attributes, vaccination, evaluation approaches, and news sources. Results showed that the first pandemic was frequently framed with the medical/scientific and political/legal issues, while the second pandemic was emphasized with the health risk issue in TV news. Both flu pandemics were regularly reported with mortality exemplars, but the focus in the first pandemic was on the flu virus threat and vaccination side effects, while the vaccination shortage was frequently revealed in the second outbreak.

Integrating pharmacies into public health program planning for pandemic influenza vaccine response.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Thomas J; Kang, Yoonjae; Bridges, Carolyn B; Talbert, Todd; Vagi, Sara J; Lamont, Brock; Graitcer, Samuel B

2016-11-04

During an influenza pandemic, to achieve early and rapid vaccination coverage and maximize the benefit of an immunization campaign, partnerships between public health agencies and vaccine providers are essential. Immunizing pharmacists represent an important group for expanding access to pandemic vaccination. However, little is known about nationwide coordination between public health programs and pharmacies for pandemic vaccine response planning. To assess relationships and planning activities between public health programs and pharmacies, we analyzed data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention assessments of jurisdictions that received immunization and emergency preparedness funding from 2012 to 2015. Forty-seven (88.7%) of 53 jurisdictions reported including pharmacies in pandemic vaccine distribution plans, 24 (45.3%) had processes to recruit pharmacists to vaccinate, and 16 (30.8%) of 52 established formal relationships with pharmacies. Most jurisdictions plan to allocate less than 10% of pandemic vaccine supply to pharmacies. While most jurisdictions plan to include pharmacies as pandemic vaccine providers, work is needed to establish formalized agreements between public health departments and pharmacies to improve pandemic preparedness coordination and ensure that vaccinating pharmacists are fully utilized during a pandemic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

PubMed Central

Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

2011-01-01

Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser-studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus. PMID:21757099

Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

PubMed

Qu, Jiangwen

2016-09-01

The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pandemic Ventilator Rationing and Appeals Processes

PubMed Central

Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

2014-01-01

In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans. PMID:20354793

Pandemic ventilator rationing and appeals processes.

PubMed

Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

2011-06-01

In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans.

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza, National and Community Measures

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization's recommended pandemic influenza interventions, based on limited data, vary by transmission pattern, pandemic phase, and illness severity and extent. In the pandemic alert period, recommendations include isolation of patients and quarantine of contacts, accompanied by antiviral therapy. During the pandemic period, the focus shifts to delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. Ill persons should remain home when they first become symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical. If the pandemic is severe, social distancing measures such as school closures should be considered. Nonessential domestic travel to affected areas should be deferred. Hand and respiratory hygiene should be routine; mask use should be based on setting and risk, and contaminated household surfaces should be disinfected. Additional research and field assessments during pandemics are essential to update recommendations. Legal authority and procedures for implementing interventions should be understood in advance and should respect cultural differences and human rights. PMID:16494723

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

The Global Physical Inactivity Pandemic: An Analysis of Knowledge Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piggin, Joe; Bairner, Alan

2016-01-01

In July 2012, "The Lancet" announced a pandemic of physical inactivity and a global call to action to effect change. The worldwide pandemic is said to be claiming millions of lives every year. Asserting that physical inactivity is pandemic is an important moment. Given the purported scale and significance of physical inactivity around…

Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat.

PubMed

Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C; Daszak, Peter

2014-12-30

Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral "One Health" pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual.

Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat

PubMed Central

Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C.; Daszak, Peter

2014-01-01

Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral “One Health” pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual. PMID:25512538

Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal.

PubMed

Adhikari, Bal Ram; Shakya, Geeta; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Prakash Kc, Khagendra; Shrestha, Sirjana Devi; Dhungana, Guna Raj

2011-03-23

The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3%) were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3%) were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53%) were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type. The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type.

Data for decision making: strategic information tools for hospital management during a pandemic.

PubMed

Farias, Daniel R; Raffo, Lucrecia; Bacigalupo, Silvia; Cremaschi, Maria; Vence, Liliana; Ramos, Susana; Salguero, Ana; Claudio, Martin; Meites, Elissa; Cubito, Alejandro

2010-10-01

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Argentina's Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas, a referral center in the capital province of Buenos Aires, treated a large urban patient population. Beginning in April, after severe influenza had been reported in North America but before any suspected cases of H1N1 had been reported in Argentina, the authors formed a pandemic planning committee to direct our hospital's response. An important strategy of the management team was to create a single daily monitoring tool that could integrate multiple information sources. We describe our pandemic planning strategy so that it may serve as a template for other hospitals. We describe our integrated data management system and the indicators it measured. We also describe the iterative process used to develop these tools and the current versions we use in surveillance for possible new waves of pandemic influenza. We present 3 examples of strategic decision making applied to data from our integrated information system. Daily pandemic surveillance data motivated the planning committee to reallocate hospital resources to care for patients during the peak pandemic period. This report illustrates the importance of pandemic planning and advanced integrated information tools for management of a health care facility during a pandemic.

Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

PubMed Central

Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R.; Krewski, Daniel

2016-01-01

For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop. PMID:27929449

Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.

PubMed

McCaw, J M; Glass, K; Mercer, G N; McVernon, J

2014-03-01

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.

Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response.

PubMed

Smith, Maxwell J; Silva, Diego S

2015-01-01

The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

US school/academic institution disaster and pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Elliott, Michael B; Reddick, Dave; D Swick, Zachary

2012-09-01

School pandemic preparedness is essential, but has not been evaluated. An online survey was sent to school nurses (from state school nurse associations and/or state departments of education) between May and July 2011. Overall school pandemic preparedness scores were calculated by assigning 1 point for each item in the school's pandemic plan; the maximum score was 11. Linear regression was used to describe factors associated with higher school pandemic preparedness scores. Nurse influenza vaccine uptake was assessed as well. A total of 1,997 nurses from 26 states completed the survey. Almost three-quarters (73.7%; n = 1,472) reported receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2010-11 season. Very few (2.2%; n = 43) reported that their school/district had a mandatory influenza vaccination policy. Pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0 to 10 points, with an average score of 4.3. Determinants of school pandemic preparedness were as follows: planning to be a point of dispensing during a future pandemic (P < .001), having experienced multiple student or employee hospitalizations and/or deaths related to H1N1 during the pandemic (P = .01 or <.05, respectively), having a lead nurse complete the survey (P < .001), and having the school nurse study participant be a member of the school disaster planning committee (P < .001). US schools must continue to address gaps in pandemic planning. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009.

PubMed

Tamerius, James; Viboud, Cécile; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chowell, Gerardo

2015-08-01

While a relationship between environmental forcing and influenza transmission has been established in inter-pandemic seasons, the drivers of pandemic influenza remain debated. In particular, school effects may predominate in pandemic seasons marked by an atypical concentration of cases among children. For the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Mexico is a particularly interesting case study due to its broad geographic extent encompassing temperate and tropical regions, well-documented regional variation in the occurrence of pandemic outbreaks, and coincidence of several school breaks during the pandemic period. Here we fit a series of transmission models to daily laboratory-confirmed influenza data in 32 Mexican states using MCMC approaches, considering a meta-population framework or the absence of spatial coupling between states. We use these models to explore the effect of environmental, school-related and travel factors on the generation of spatially-heterogeneous pandemic waves. We find that the spatial structure of the pandemic is best understood by the interplay between regional differences in specific humidity (explaining the occurrence of pandemic activity towards the end of the school term in late May-June 2009 in more humid southeastern states), school vacations (preventing influenza transmission during July-August in all states), and regional differences in residual susceptibility (resulting in large outbreaks in early fall 2009 in central and northern Mexico that had yet to experience fully-developed outbreaks). Our results are in line with the concept that very high levels of specific humidity, as present during summer in southeastern Mexico, favor influenza transmission, and that school cycles are a strong determinant of pandemic wave timing.

Knowledge about pandemic influenza and compliance with containment measures among Australians.

PubMed

Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David; Francis, J Lynn; d'Espaignet, Edouard Tursan; Duncan, Sarah; Islam, Fakhrul; Speare, Rick

2009-08-01

To examine the level of stated compliance with public health pandemic influenza control measures and explore factors influencing cooperation for pandemic influenza control in Australia. A computer-assisted telephone interview survey was conducted by professional interviewers to collect information on the Australian public's knowledge of pandemic influenza and willingness to comply with public health control measures. The sample was randomly selected using an electronic database and printed telephone directories to ensure sample representativeness from all Australian states and territories. After we described pandemic influenza to the respondents to ensure they understood the significance of the issue, the questions on compliance were repeated and changes in responses were analysed with McNemar's test for paired data Only 23% of the 1166 respondents demonstrated a clear understanding of the term 'pandemic influenza'. Of those interviewed, 94.1% reported being willing to comply with home quarantine; 94.2%, to avoid public events; and 90.7%, to postpone social gatherings. After we explained the meaning of 'pandemic' to interviewees, stated compliance increased significantly (to 97.5%, 98.3% and 97.2% respectively). Those who reported being unfamiliar with the term 'pandemic influenza,' male respondents and employed people not able to work from home were less willing to comply. In Australia, should the threat arise, compliance with containment measures against pandemic influenza is likely to be high, yet it could be further enhanced through a public education programme conveying just a few key messages. A basic understanding of pandemic influenza is associated with stated willingness to comply with containment measures. Investing now in promoting measures to prepare for a pandemic or other health emergency will have considerable value.

Pandemic Flu

MedlinePlus

... Address What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Pandemic Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

Difference in immune response in vaccinated and unvaccinated Swedish individuals after the 2009 influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Previous exposures to flu and subsequent immune responses may impact on 2009/2010 pandemic flu vaccine responses and clinical symptoms upon infection with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza strain. Qualitative and quantitative differences in humoral and cellular immune responses associated with the flu vaccination in 2009/2010 (pandemic H1N1 vaccine) and natural infection have not yet been described in detail. We designed a longitudinal study to examine influenza- (flu-) specific immune responses and the association between pre-existing flu responses, symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), impact of pandemic flu infection, and pandemic flu vaccination in a cohort of 2,040 individuals in Sweden in 2009–2010. Methods Cellular flu-specific immune responses were assessed by whole-blood antigen stimulation assay, and humoral responses by a single radial hemolysis test. Results Previous seasonal flu vaccination was associated with significantly lower flu-specific IFN-γ responses (using a whole-blood assay) at study entry. Pandemic flu vaccination induced long-lived T-cell responses (measured by IFN-γ production) to influenza A strains, influenza B strains, and the matrix (M1) antigen. In contrast, individuals with pandemic flu infection (PCR positive) exhibited increased flu-specific T-cell responses shortly after onset of ILI symptoms but the immune response decreased after the flu season (spring 2010). We identified non-pandemic-flu vaccinated participants without ILI symptoms who showed an IFN-γ production profile similar to pandemic-flu infected participants, suggesting exposure without experiencing clinical symptoms. Conclusions Strong and long-lived flu-M1 specific immune responses, defined by IFN-γ production, in individuals after vaccination suggest that M1-responses may contribute to protective cellular immune responses. Silent flu infections appeared to be frequent in 2009/2010. The pandemic flu vaccine induced qualitatively and quantitatively different humoral and cellular immune responses as compared to infection with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic H1N1 influenza strain. PMID:24916787

Pandemic and post-pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) infection in critically ill patients

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background There is a vast amount of information published regarding the impact of 2009 pandemic Influenza A (pH1N1) virus infection. However, a comparison of risk factors and outcome during the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period has not been described. Methods A prospective, observational, multi-center study was carried out to evaluate the clinical characteristics and demographics of patients with positive RT-PCR for H1N1 admitted to 148 Spanish intensive care units (ICUs). Data were obtained from the 2009 pandemic and compared to the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period. Results Nine hundred and ninety-seven patients with confirmed An/H1N1 infection were included. Six hundred and forty-eight patients affected by 2009 (pH1N1) virus infection and 349 patients affected by the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period were analyzed. Patients during the post-pandemic period were older, had more chronic comorbid conditions and presented with higher severity scores (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)) on ICU admission. Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period received empiric antiviral treatment less frequently and with delayed administration. Mortality was significantly higher in the post-pandemic period. Multivariate analysis confirmed that haematological disease, invasive mechanical ventilation and continuous renal replacement therapy were factors independently associated with worse outcome in the two periods. HIV was the only new variable independently associated with higher ICU mortality during the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period. Conclusion Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period had an unexpectedly higher mortality rate and showed a trend towards affecting a more vulnerable population, in keeping with more typical seasonal viral infection. PMID:22126648

Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Díaz, Emili; Vidaur, Loreto; Torres, Antoni; Laborda, Cesar; Granada, Rosa; Bonastre, Juan; Martín, Mar; Insausti, Josu; Arenzana, Angel; Guerrero, Jose Eugenio; Navarrete, Ines; Bermejo-Martin, Jesus; Suarez, David; Rodriguez, Alejandro

2011-01-01

There is a vast amount of information published regarding the impact of 2009 pandemic Influenza A (pH1N1) virus infection. However, a comparison of risk factors and outcome during the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period has not been described. A prospective, observational, multi-center study was carried out to evaluate the clinical characteristics and demographics of patients with positive RT-PCR for H1N1 admitted to 148 Spanish intensive care units (ICUs). Data were obtained from the 2009 pandemic and compared to the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period. Nine hundred and ninety-seven patients with confirmed An/H1N1 infection were included. Six hundred and forty-eight patients affected by 2009 (pH1N1) virus infection and 349 patients affected by the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period were analyzed. Patients during the post-pandemic period were older, had more chronic comorbid conditions and presented with higher severity scores (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)) on ICU admission. Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period received empiric antiviral treatment less frequently and with delayed administration. Mortality was significantly higher in the post-pandemic period. Multivariate analysis confirmed that haematological disease, invasive mechanical ventilation and continuous renal replacement therapy were factors independently associated with worse outcome in the two periods. HIV was the only new variable independently associated with higher ICU mortality during the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period. Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period had an unexpectedly higher mortality rate and showed a trend towards affecting a more vulnerable population, in keeping with more typical seasonal viral infection.

Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. Methods An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. Results For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. Conclusions For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal disruption and cost. PMID:23496898

A comparison of H1N1 influenza among pediatric inpatients in the pandemic and post pandemic era.

PubMed

Rao, Suchitra; Torok, Michelle R; Bagdure, Dayanand; Cunningham, Maureen A; Williams, Joshua T B; Curtis, Donna J; Wilson, Karen; Dominguez, Samuel R

2015-10-01

The novel influenza A H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) strain emerged in 2009, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality. It is not known whether illness associated with A(H1N1) pdm09 in the post-pandemic era exhibits a similar disease profile. The objectives of this study were to compare the burden of disease of A(H1N1) pdm09 influenza from the 2009 pandemic year to the post-pandemic years (2010-2014), and to explore potential reasons for any differences. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of inpatients admitted to Children's Hospital Colorado with a positive respiratory specimen for influenza from May-December, 2009 and December, 2010-April, 2014. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to compare the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with H1N1 during the two periods. There were 388 inpatients with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in 2009, and 117 during the post-pandemic years. Ninety-four percent of all H1N1 during the post-pandemic era was observed during the 2013-2014 influenza season. Patients with A(H1N1) pdm09 during the post-pandemic year were less likely to have an underlying medical condition (P<0.01). Patients admitted to the ICU during the post-pandemic year had a lower median age (5 vs 8 years, P=0.01) and a lower proportion of patients were intubated, had mental status changes, and ARDS compared with the pandemic years, (P<0.01 for all), with decreased mortality (P=0.02). Patients with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 during the post-pandemic years appeared to have less severe disease than patients with A(H1N1) pdm09 during the pandemic year. The reasons for this difference are likely multifactorial. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

PubMed

Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

2013-11-01

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

2013-01-01

Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010–2012). Conclusions We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

Factors affecting preparedness and capacity to manage pandemic influenza: perceptions of healthcare managers.

PubMed

Adini, B; Laor, D; Aharonson-Daniel, L

2014-08-01

Numerous interventions seeking to increase preparedness for pandemic influenza have been implemented, but low compliance of healthcare providers has been reported in many instances. The aim of this study was to identify factors that affect preparedness for pandemic influenza by examining: hospital managers' perceptions of measures implemented to promote preparedness for pandemic influenza; hospital managers' assessments of the readiness and capability of their hospitals to manage pandemic influenza; and the effectiveness of a national pandemic preparedness programme in Israel over time. A quasi-experiment was conducted following implementation of a national pandemic preparedness programme in Israel. A survey assessed hospital managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of the programme, and the preparedness and capacity of their hospitals to manage pandemic influenza. Two independent evaluations of preparedness for biological threats were conducted, based on a validated tool that included 60 objective parameters. Correlations between perceived preparedness and capacity and components of the preparedness programme were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Version 17. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine the components that influence preparedness and capability to manage pandemic influenza. All general hospital managers in Israel were approached twice (first and second evaluations). Ninety-one percent rated themselves as highly/very highly prepared for pandemic influenza, and 87% rated themselves as highly/very highly capable of dealing with pandemic influenza. Strong correlation was found between hospital managers' perceived preparedness and capacity to manage pandemic influenza (rho = 0.761, P = 0.000), and between perceived preparedness and familiarity with the disease (rho = 0.605, P = 0.003). Familiarity with guidelines accounted for 35% of the variance in perceived capability (adjusted R(2) = 0.346, P = 0.002). Inclusion of preparedness evaluations explained an additional 15% of the variance (R(2) change = 0.146, P = 0.026). An increase in mean total score for emergency preparedness was found in the second evaluation compared with the first evaluation. Familiarity with guidelines and preparedness evaluations affect the perceptions of healthcare managers regarding preparedness and capability to manage pandemic influenza. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spreading of Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus O3:K6 and Its Serovariants: A Re-analysis of Strains Isolated from Multiple Studies.

PubMed

Han, Dongsheng; Yu, Fei; Tang, Hui; Ren, Chuanli; Wu, Caiyun; Zhang, Pan; Han, Chongxu

2017-01-01

In China, V. parahaemolyticus has been a leading cause of foodborne outbreaks and bacterial infectious diarrhea since the 1990s, and most infections have been associated with the pandemic V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 and its serovariants. However, a comprehensive overview of the sero-prevalence and genetic diversity of the pandemic V. parahaemolyticus clone in China is lacking. To compensate for this deficiency, pandemic isolates in both clinical and environmental Chinese samples collected from multiple studies were analyzed in this study. Surprisingly, as many as 27 clinical pandemic serovariants were identified and were widely distributed across nine coastal provinces and two inland provinces (Beijing and Sichuan). O3:K6, O4:K68, and O1:KUT represented the predominant clinical serovars. Only four environmental pandemic serovariants had previously been reported, and they were spread throughout Shanghai (O1:KUT, O3:K6), Jiangsu (O3:K6, O4:K48), Zhejiang (O3:K6), and Guangdong (O4:K9). Notably, 24 pandemic serovariants were detected within a short time frame (from 2006 to 2012). The pandemic isolates were divided into 15 sequence types (STs), 10 of which fell within clonal complex (CC) 3. Only three STs (ST3, ST192, and ST305) were identified in environmental isolates. Substantial serotypic diversity was mainly observed among isolates within pandemic ST3, which comprised 21 combinations of O/K antigens. The pandemic O3:K6 serotype showed a high level of sequence diversity, which was shared by eight different STs (ST3, ST227, ST431, ST435, ST487, ST489, ST526, and ST672). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing revealed that most isolates shared similar antibiotic susceptibility profiles. They were resistant to ampicillin but sensitive to most other drugs that were tested. In conclusion, the high levels of serotypic and genetic diversity of the pandemic clone suggest that the involved regions are becoming important reservoirs for the emergence of novel pandemic strains. We underscore the need for routine monitoring to prevent pandemic V. parahaemolyticus infection, which includes monitoring antimicrobial responses to avoid excessive misuse of antibiotics. Further investigations are also needed to delineate the specific mechanisms underlying the possible seroconversion of pandemic isolates.

Barriers to pandemic influenza vaccination and uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine in the post-pandemic season in Germany.

PubMed

Böhmer, Merle M; Walter, Dietmar; Falkenhorst, Gerhard; Müters, Stephan; Krause, Gérard; Wichmann, Ole

2012-10-31

In Germany, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for certain target groups (e.g. persons aged ≥60 years, chronically ill persons, healthcare workers (HCW)). In season 2009/10, vaccination against pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, which was controversially discussed in the public, was recommended for the whole population. The objectives of this study were to assess vaccination coverage for seasonal (seasons 2008/09-2010/11) and pandemic influenza (season 2009/10), to identify predictors of and barriers to pandemic vaccine uptake and whether the controversial discussions on pandemic vaccination has had a negative impact on seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in Germany. We analysed data from the 'German Health Update' (GEDA10) telephone survey (n=22,050) and a smaller GEDA10-follow-up survey (n=2,493), which were both representative of the general population aged ≥18 years living in Germany. Overall only 8.8% of the adult population in Germany received a vaccination against pandemic influenza. High socioeconomic status, having received a seasonal influenza shot in the previous season, and belonging to a target group for seasonal influenza vaccination were independently associated with the uptake of pandemic vaccines. The main reasons for not receiving a pandemic vaccination were 'fear of side effects' and the opinion that 'vaccination was not necessary'. Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in the pre-pandemic season 2008/09 was 52.8% among persons aged ≥60 years; 30.5% among HCW, and 43.3% among chronically ill persons. A decrease in vaccination coverage was observed across all target groups in the first post-pandemic season 2010/11 (50.6%, 25.8%, and 41.0% vaccination coverage, respectively). Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage in Germany remains in all target groups below 75%, which is a declared goal of the European Union. Our results suggest that controversial public discussions about safety and the benefits of pandemic influenza vaccination may have contributed to both a very low uptake of pandemic vaccines and a decreased uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in the first post-pandemic season. In the upcoming years, the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines should be carefully monitored in all target groups to identify if this trend continues and to guide public health authorities in developing more effective vaccination and communication strategies for seasonal influenza vaccination.

Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza: an evaluation of the evidence base.

PubMed

Aledort, Julia E; Lurie, Nicole; Wasserman, Jeffrey; Bozzette, Samuel A

2007-08-15

In an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pandemic despite concerns about the poor quality of the literature, combining available evidence with expert opinion about the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza may lead to a more informed and widely accepted set of recommendations. We evaluated the evidence base for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Then, based on the collective evidence, we identified a set of recommendations for and against interventions that are specific to both the setting in which an intervention may be used and the pandemic phase, and which can be used by policymakers to prepare for a pandemic until scientific evidence can definitively respond to planners' needs. Building on reviews of past pandemics and recent historical inquiries, we evaluated the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions by combining available evidence from the literature with qualitative and quantitative expert opinion. Specifically, we reviewed the recent scientific literature regarding the prevention of human-to-human transmission of pandemic influenza, convened a meeting of experts from multiple disciplines, and elicited expert recommendation about the use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions in a variety of settings (healthcare facilities; community-based institutions; private households) and pandemic phases (no pandemic; no US pandemic; early localized US pandemic; advanced US pandemic). The literature contained a dearth of evidence on the efficacy or effectiveness of most non-pharmaceutical interventions for influenza. In an effort to inform decision-making in the absence of strong scientific evidence, the experts ultimately endorsed hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette, surveillance and case reporting, and rapid viral diagnosis in all settings and during all pandemic phases. They also encouraged patient and provider use of masks and other personal protective equipment as well as voluntary self-isolation of patients during all pandemic phases. Other non-pharmaceutical interventions including mask-use and other personal protective equipment for the general public, school and workplace closures early in an epidemic, and mandatory travel restrictions were rejected as likely to be ineffective, infeasible, or unacceptable to the public. The demand for scientific evidence on non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for influenza is pervasive, and present policy recommendations must rely heavily on expert judgment. In the absence of a definitive science base, our assessment of the evidence identified areas for further investigation as well as non-pharmaceutical public health interventions that experts believe are likely to be beneficial, feasible and widely acceptable in an influenza pandemic.

Fire Fighters’ Ability and Willingness to Participate in a Pandemic

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

Death Associated with Moderate and Severe Pandemic Influenza Scenarios* .........61 Table 13. Vaccine Priority Group Recommendations...Department of Heath and Human Services’ Pandemic Influenza Plan calculates plans for a clinical attack rate (the rate at which the disease will...occurs. 4 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan

Refining the approach to vaccines against influenza A viruses with pandemic potential

PubMed Central

Czako, Rita; Subbarao, Kanta

2015-01-01

Vaccination is the most effective strategy for prevention and control of influenza. Timely production and deployment of seasonal influenza vaccines is based on an understanding of the epidemiology of influenza and on global disease and virologic surveillance. Experience with seasonal influenza vaccines guided the initial development of pandemic influenza vaccines. A large investment in pandemic influenza vaccines in the last decade has resulted in much progress and a body of information that can now be applied to refine the established paradigm. Critical and complementary considerations for pandemic influenza vaccines include improved assessment of the pandemic potential of animal influenza viruses, proactive development and deployment of pandemic influenza vaccines, and application of novel platforms and strategies for vaccine production and administration. PMID:26587050

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean: an epidemiological overview.

PubMed

Boisson, E V; Des Vignes, F; Quesnel, S

2013-07-01

To describe epidemiological trends of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the English and Dutch-speaking Caribbean during the pandemic period. Data on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths associated with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) contained in two regional databases at the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) were analysed. The data sources were epidemiological and laboratory reports from English and Dutch-speaking countries and the CAREC laboratory information system (LABIS). In the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was the predominant circulating influenza virus type during the pandemic period. There were three distinct phases: a first pandemic wave during mid-April to end of August 2009 (734 cases), a second pandemic wave during September-December 2009 (570 cases) and a phase of low transmission during January to mid-August 2010 (55 cases). The majority of cases (76%) were aged less than 30 years, with children of school age being most affected. Most cases (89%) presented with symptoms of the respiratory tract and smaller proportions (20-40%) presented with gastrointestinal and other symptoms. No cases tested were resistant to oseltamivir. A quarter of cases required hospitalization and the case fatality rate was 1.8%. The epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean were consistent with that in other parts of the world. It is important that post pandemic surveillance (epidemiological and virological) for respiratory illnesses continues to be enhanced in order to give a better understanding of seasonality and changing trends in respiratory illnesses and their aetiologic agents.

Economic Analysis of the Use of Facemasks During Pandemic (H1N1) 2009

PubMed Central

Tracht, Samantha M.; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Edwards, Brian K.

2012-01-01

A large-scale pandemic could cause severe health, social, and economic impacts. The recent 2009 H1N1 pandemic confirmed the need for mitigation strategies that are cost-effective and easy to implement. Typically, in the early stages of a pandemic, as seen with pandemic (H1N1) 2009, vaccines and antivirals may be limited or non-existent, resulting in the need for non-pharmaceutical strategies to reduce the spread of disease and the economic impact. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population comprised of three different age groups and assume that some individuals wear facemasks. We then quantify the impact facemasks could have had on the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and examine their cost effectiveness. Our analyses show that an unmitigated pandemic could result in losses of nearly $832 billion in the United States during the length of the pandemic. Based on present value of future earnings, hospital costs, and lost income estimates due to illness, this study estimates that the use of facemasks by 10%, 25%, and 50% of the population could reduce economic losses by $478 billion, $570 billion, and $573 billion, respectively. The results show that facemasks can significantly reduce the number of influenza cases as well as the economic losses due to a pandemic. PMID:22300798

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of human influenza viruses in domestic cats.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Mahmoud; Ali, Ahmed; Daniels, Joshua B; Lee, Chang-Won

2016-12-30

The continuous exposure of cats to diverse influenza viruses raises the concern of a potential role of cats in the epidemiology of these viruses. Our previous seroprevalence study of domestic cat sera collected during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic wave (September 2009-September 2010) revealed a high prevalence of pandemic H1N1, as well as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 human flu virus infection (22.5%, 33.0%, and 43.5%, respectively). In this study, we extended the serosurvey of influenza viruses in cat sera collected post-pandemic (June 2011-August 2012). A total of 432 cat sera were tested using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. The results showed an increase in pandemic H1N1 prevalence (33.6%) and a significant reduction in both seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 prevalence (10.9% and 17.6%, respectively) compared to our previous survey conducted during the pandemic wave. The pandemic H1N1 prevalence in cats showed an irregular seasonality pattern in the post-pandemic phase. Pandemic H1N1 reactivity was more frequent among female cats than male cats. In contrast to our earlier finding, no significant association between clinical respiratory disease and influenza virus infection was observed. Our study highlights a high susceptibility among cats to human influenza virus infection that is correlated with influenza prevalence in the human population.

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

PubMed

Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

2018-02-01

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Monitoring and Characterization of Oseltamivir-Resistant Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus, Japan, 2009–2010

PubMed Central

Ujike, Makoto; Ejima, Miho; Anraku, Akane; Shimabukuro, Kozue; Obuchi, Masatsugu; Kishida, Noriko; Hong, Xu; Takashita, Emi; Fujisaki, Seiichiro; Yamashita, Kazuyo; Horikawa, Hiroshi; Kato, Yumiko; Oguchi, Akio; Fujita, Nobuyuki; Tashiro, Masato

2011-01-01

To monitor and characterize oseltamivir-resistant (OR) pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus with the H275Y mutation, we analyzed 4,307 clinical specimens from Japan by neuraminidase (NA) sequencing or inhibition assay; 61 OR pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses were detected. NA inhibition assay and M2 sequencing indicated that OR pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was resistant to M2 inhibitors, but sensitive to zanamivir. Full-genome sequencing showed OR and oseltamivir-sensitive (OS) viruses had high sequence similarity, indicating that domestic OR virus was derived from OS pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. Hemagglutination inhibition test demonstrated that OR and OS pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses were antigenically similar to the A/California/7/2009 vaccine strain. Of 61 case-patients with OR viruses, 45 received oseltamivir as treatment, and 10 received it as prophylaxis, which suggests that most cases emerged sporadically from OS pandemic (H1N1) 2009, due to selective pressure. No evidence of sustained spread of OR pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was found in Japan; however, 2 suspected incidents of human-to-human transmission were reported. PMID:21392439

Prevention and control of avian influenza: the need for a paradigm shift in pandemic influenza preparedness.

PubMed

Martinot, A; Thomas, J; Thiermann, A; Dasgupta, N

2007-03-10

Avian influenza presents both challenges and opportunities to leaders around the world engaged in pandemic influenza preparedness planning. Most resource-poor countries will be unable to stockpile antivirals or have access to eventual human vaccines for pandemic flu. Preparedness plans, directed at controlling avian influenza at the source, enable countries simultaneously to promote national and global health, animal welfare and international development. Improving the veterinary infrastructure and capacity of resource-poor countries is one way to prevent potential pandemic flu deaths in resource-rich countries. In this article, Amanda Martinot, James Thomas, Alejandro Thiermann and Nabarun Dasgupta argue that national health leaders need to consider more comprehensive strategies that incorporate veterinary surveillance and improvements in veterinary infrastructure for the control of avian influenza epizootics as part of national pandemic preparedness planning. This, they argue, will require a shift in attitude, from thinking in terms of preparation for an inevitable pandemic to pre-emption of the potential pandemic through prevention measures in the animal population.

Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

PubMed

Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

2014-05-01

During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment

PubMed Central

Lipsitch, Marc; Barclay, Wendy; Raman, Rahul; Russell, Charles J; Belser, Jessica A; Cobey, Sarah; Kasson, Peter M; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Riley, Steven; Beauchemin, Catherine AA; Bedford, Trevor; Friedrich, Thomas C; Handel, Andreas; Herfst, Sander; Murcia, Pablo R; Roche, Benjamin; Wilke, Claus O; Russell, Colin A

2016-01-01

The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001 PMID:27834632

Corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza: a survey of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in Montgomery County, Maryland.

PubMed

Watkins, Rissah J; Barnett, Daniel J; Links, Jonathan M

2008-09-01

We conducted a survey of corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza among biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in Montgomery County, Maryland, to determine the level of preparedness for this industry and geographic region. The survey, based on the HHS Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist, established whether a company had a preparedness plan specific to pandemic influenza, the contents of its plan, or its reasons for a lack of a plan. A total of 50 companies participated in the survey. Of these, 40 did not have any type of preparedness plan, 3 were drafting plans, 6 had general preparedness plans that could be applied to an influenza pandemic, and only 1 company had a preparedness plan specifically designed to address pandemic influenza. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in this geographic region are currently not well prepared for pandemic influenza. Public health officials should offer more help, possibly in the form of a model small business preparedness plan, and collaboration between companies should be encouraged to foster sharing of preparedness plans.

Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, Edward M.; Tildesley, Michael J.; House, Thomas

2017-03-01

Influenza A viruses have caused a number of global pandemics, with considerable mortality in humans. Here, we analyse the time periods between influenza pandemics since 1700 under different assumptions to determine whether the emergence of new pandemic strains is a memoryless or history-dependent process. Bayesian model selection between exponential and gamma distributions for these time periods gives support to the hypothesis of history-dependence under eight out of nine sets of modelling assumptions. Using the fitted parameters to make predictions shows a high level of variability in the modelled number of pandemics from 2010-2110. The approach we take here relies on limited data, so is uncertain, but it provides cheap, safe and direct evidence relating to pandemic emergence, a field where indirect measurements are often made at great risk and cost.

Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection: Evidence of competitive advantage of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza.

PubMed

Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

2009-08-24

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains.

Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017

PubMed Central

Levitt, Alexandra; Kanade, Neha; Wright-Jegede, Narue; Dopson, Stephanie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Reed, Carrie; Uzicanin, Amra; Levitt, Alexandra; Dopson, Stephanie; Frank, Mark; Holloway, Rachel; Koonin, Lisa; Rasmussen, Sonja; Redd, Stephen; de la Motte Hurst, Christopher; Kanade, Neha; Rainey, Jeanette; Uzicanin, Amra; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Jernigan, Daniel; Reed, Carrie

2017-01-01

Summary When a novel influenza A virus with pandemic potential emerges, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) often are the most readily available interventions to help slow transmission of the virus in communities, which is especially important before a pandemic vaccine becomes widely available. NPIs, also known as community mitigation measures, are actions that persons and communities can take to help slow the spread of respiratory virus infections, including seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses. These guidelines replace the 2007 Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States — Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425). Several elements remain unchanged from the 2007 guidance, which described recommended NPIs and the supporting rationale and key concepts for the use of these interventions during influenza pandemics. NPIs can be phased in, or layered, on the basis of pandemic severity and local transmission patterns over time. Categories of NPIs include personal protective measures for everyday use (e.g., voluntary home isolation of ill persons, respiratory etiquette, and hand hygiene); personal protective measures reserved for influenza pandemics (e.g., voluntary home quarantine of exposed household members and use of face masks in community settings when ill); community measures aimed at increasing social distancing (e.g., school closures and dismissals, social distancing in workplaces, and postponing or cancelling mass gatherings); and environmental measures (e.g., routine cleaning of frequently touched surfaces). Several new elements have been incorporated into the 2017 guidelines. First, to support updated recommendations on the use of NPIs, the latest scientific evidence available since the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 pandemic has been added. Second, a summary of lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic response is presented to underscore the importance of broad and flexible prepandemic planning. Third, a new section on community engagement has been included to highlight that the timely and effective use of NPIs depends on community acceptance and active participation. Fourth, to provide new or updated pandemic assessment and planning tools, the novel influenza virus pandemic intervals tool, the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool, the Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework, and a set of prepandemic planning scenarios are described. Finally, to facilitate implementation of the updated guidelines and to assist states and localities with prepandemic planning and decision-making, this report links to six supplemental prepandemic NPI planning guides for different community settings that are available online (https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions). PMID:28426646

[Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

PubMed

Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

2011-10-01

To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged <65 years in excess deaths rose compared with 'non-pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the "Individual Defensive" vaccination program in the 2000s. Excess deaths were observed continually, and not limited to pandemic years. We must not slight public health interventions for 'non-pandemic' influenza as well as pandemic influenza. We should also re-examine the importance of "Social Defenses", including preventative vaccination, for public health policy.

Pandemic influenza preparedness and health systems challenges in Asia: results from rapid analyses in 6 Asian countries.

PubMed

Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Adisasmito, Wiku; Chau, Pham Ngoc; Conseil, Alexandra; de Sa, Joia; Krumkamp, Ralf; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Phommasack, Bounlay; Putthasri, Weerasak; Shih, Chin-Shui; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

2010-06-08

Since 2003, Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, has received substantial attention because of the anticipation that it could be the epicentre of the next pandemic. There has been active investment but earlier review of pandemic preparedness plans in the region reveals that the translation of these strategic plans into operational plans is still lacking in some countries particularly those with low resources. The objective of this study is to understand the pandemic preparedness programmes, the health systems context, and challenges and constraints specific to the six Asian countries namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam in the prepandemic phase before the start of H1N1/2009. The study relied on the Systemic Rapid Assessment (SYSRA) toolkit, which evaluates priority disease programmes by taking into account the programmes, the general health system, and the wider socio-cultural and political context. The components under review were: external context; stewardship and organisational arrangements; financing, resource generation and allocation; healthcare provision; and information systems. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in the second half of 2008 based on a review of published data and interviews with key informants, exploring past and current patterns of health programme and pandemic response. The study shows that health systems in the six countries varied in regard to the epidemiological context, health care financing, and health service provision patterns. For pandemic preparation, all six countries have developed national governance on pandemic preparedness as well as national pandemic influenza preparedness plans and Avian and Human Influenza (AHI) response plans. However, the governance arrangements and the nature of the plans differed. In the five developing countries, the focus was on surveillance and rapid containment of poultry related transmission while preparation for later pandemic stages was limited. The interfaces and linkages between health system contexts and pandemic preparedness programmes in these countries were explored. Health system context influences how the six countries have been preparing themselves for a pandemic. At the same time, investment in pandemic preparation in the six Asian countries has contributed to improvement in health system surveillance, laboratory capacity, monitoring and evaluation and public communications. A number of suggestions for improvement were presented to strengthen the pandemic preparation and mitigation as well as to overcome some of the underlying health system constraints.

Pandemic influenza preparedness and health systems challenges in Asia: results from rapid analyses in 6 Asian countries

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Since 2003, Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, has received substantial attention because of the anticipation that it could be the epicentre of the next pandemic. There has been active investment but earlier review of pandemic preparedness plans in the region reveals that the translation of these strategic plans into operational plans is still lacking in some countries particularly those with low resources. The objective of this study is to understand the pandemic preparedness programmes, the health systems context, and challenges and constraints specific to the six Asian countries namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam in the prepandemic phase before the start of H1N1/2009. Methods The study relied on the Systemic Rapid Assessment (SYSRA) toolkit, which evaluates priority disease programmes by taking into account the programmes, the general health system, and the wider socio-cultural and political context. The components under review were: external context; stewardship and organisational arrangements; financing, resource generation and allocation; healthcare provision; and information systems. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in the second half of 2008 based on a review of published data and interviews with key informants, exploring past and current patterns of health programme and pandemic response. Results The study shows that health systems in the six countries varied in regard to the epidemiological context, health care financing, and health service provision patterns. For pandemic preparation, all six countries have developed national governance on pandemic preparedness as well as national pandemic influenza preparedness plans and Avian and Human Influenza (AHI) response plans. However, the governance arrangements and the nature of the plans differed. In the five developing countries, the focus was on surveillance and rapid containment of poultry related transmission while preparation for later pandemic stages was limited. The interfaces and linkages between health system contexts and pandemic preparedness programmes in these countries were explored. Conclusion Health system context influences how the six countries have been preparing themselves for a pandemic. At the same time, investment in pandemic preparation in the six Asian countries has contributed to improvement in health system surveillance, laboratory capacity, monitoring and evaluation and public communications. A number of suggestions for improvement were presented to strengthen the pandemic preparation and mitigation as well as to overcome some of the underlying health system constraints. PMID:20529345

Public Health Policy and Experience of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Pune, India

PubMed Central

Purohit, Vidula; Kudale, Abhay; Sundaram, Neisha; Joseph, Saju; Schaetti, Christian; Weiss, Mitchell G.

2018-01-01

Background: Prior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global and national strategies in local programmes and lessons learned for influenza pandemic preparedness. Methods: Global, national and local pandemic preparedness and response plans have been reviewed. In-depth interviews were undertaken with district health policy-makers and administrators who coordinated the pandemic response in Pune. Results: In the absence of a comprehensive district-level pandemic preparedness plan, the response had to be improvised. Media reporting of the influenza pandemic and inaccurate information that was reported at times contributed to anxiety in the general public and to widespread fear and panic. Additional challenges included inadequate public health services and reluctance of private healthcare providers to treat people with flu-like symptoms. Policy-makers developed a response strategy that they referred to as the Pune plan, which relied on powers sanctioned by the Epidemic Act of 1897 and resources made available by the union health ministry, state health department and a government diagnostic laboratory in Pune. Conclusion: The World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) global strategy for pandemic control focuses on national planning, but state-level and local experience in a large nation like India shows how national planning may be adapted and implemented. The priority of local experience and requirements does not negate the need for higher level planning. It does, however, indicate the importance of local adaptability as an essential feature of the planning process. Experience and the implicit Pune plan that emerged are relevant for pandemic preparedness and other public health emergencies. PMID:29524939

Attending to social vulnerability when rationing pandemic resources.

PubMed

Vawter, Dorothy E; Garrett, J Eline; Gervais, Karen G; Prehn, Angela Witt; DeBruin, Debra A

2011-01-01

Pandemic plans are increasingly attending to groups experiencing health disparities and other social vulnerabilities. Although some pandemic guidance is silent on the issue, guidance that attends to socially vulnerable groups ranges widely, some procedural (often calling for public engagement), and some substantive. Public engagement objectives vary from merely educational to seeking reflective input into the ethical commitments that should guide pandemic planning and response. Some plans that concern rationing during a severe pandemic recommend ways to protect socially vulnerable groups without prioritizing access to scarce resources based on social vulnerability per se. The Minnesota Pandemic Ethics Project (MPEP), a public engagement project on rationing scarce health resources during a severe influenza pandemic, agrees and recommends an integrated set of ways to attend to the needs of socially vulnerable people and avoid exacerbation of health disparities during a severe influenza pandemic. Among other things, MPEP recommends: 1. Engaging socially vulnerable populations to clarify unique needs and effective strategies; 2. Engaging socially vulnerable populations to elicit ethical values and perspectives on rationing; 3. Rejecting rationing based on race, socioeconomic class, citizenship, quality of life, length of life-extension and first-come, first-served; 4. Prioritizing those in the general population for access to resources based on combinations of risk (of death or severe complications from influenza, exposure to influenza, transmitting influenza to vulnerable groups) and the likelihood of responding well to the resource in question. 5. Protecting critical infrastructures on which vulnerable populations and the general public rely; 6. Identifying and removing access barriers during pandemic planning and response; and 7. Collecting and promptly analyzing data during the pandemic to identify groups at disproportionate risk of influenza-related mortality and serious morbidity and to optimize the distribution of resources.

Different features of influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection among adults in 2009/10 and 2010/11.

PubMed

Grgic, Svjetlana; Skocibusic, Sinisa; Celjuska-Tosev, Elvira; Nikolic, Jadranka; Arapovic, Jurica; Kuzman, Ilija

2016-02-28

Influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection causes an epidemiologically and clinically severe disease mostly characterized by pneumonia, resulting in a high mortality rate. The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare epidemiological and clinical characteristics of influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection in patients hospitalized during the pandemic (2009/10) and post-pandemic seasons (2010/11). The data of patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection hospitalized and treated at the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases Dr. Fran Mihaljevic in Zagreb, Croatia in the first two seasons of appearance were analyzed. Compared to the pandemic season, in the post-pandemic season, patients were hospitalized longer, had higher values of inflammatory parameters, and were more often treated with antibiotics. The total number of risk factors in patients did not vary significantly between the two seasons. In the pandemic season, a significantly higher number of obese patients and patients with chronic lung disease was observed, whereas in the post-pandemic season, a statistically significant number of patients presented with symptoms of chronic cardiac and neuromuscular diseases. Primary viral pneumonia was frequently registered in younger adults during the pandemic season, whereas in the post-pandemic season, there were more cases of bacterial pneumonia. During the pandemic season, the influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection caused a severe disease with rare bacterial complications, especially in adult patients. The common characteristics of the influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus were lost in the post-pandemic season, assuming the shape and characteristics of the seasonal influenza A virus.

Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season: the Nordic experience.

PubMed

Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène; Gudlaugsson, Ólafur; Hauge, Siri Helene; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Sigmundsdóttir, Guðrún; Tegnell, Anders; Virtanen, Mikko; Krause, Tyra Grove

2016-04-21

During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model to compare those indicators between Denmark and the other countries. The vaccination coverage was lower in Denmark (6.1%) compared with Finland (48.2%), Iceland (44.1%), Norway (41.3%) and Sweden (60.0%). In 2009/10 Denmark had a similar cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions and deaths compared with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage and experienced less A(H1N1)pdm09-related severe outcomes in 2010/11. Pandemic vaccination may have had an impact on severe influenza outcomes in the post-pandemic season. Surveillance of severe outcomes may be used to compare the impact of influenza between seasons and support different vaccination strategies.

The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic: effects on pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptake and lessons learned for seasonal vaccination campaigns.

PubMed

Poland, Gregory A

2010-09-07

Individual and national/cultural differences were apparent in response to the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic. Overall pandemic influenza immunization rates were low across all nations, including among healthcare workers. Among the reasons for the low coverage rates may have been a lack of concern about the individual risk of influenza, which may translate into a lack of willingness or urgency to be vaccinated, particularly if there is mistrust of information provided by public health or governmental authorities. Intuitively, a link between willingness to be vaccinated against seasonal influenza and against pandemic influenza exists, given the similarities in decision-making for this infection. As such, the public is likely to share common concerns regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly in the areas of vaccine safety and side effects, and personal risk. Given the public's perception of the low level of virulence of the recent pandemic influenza virus, there is concern that the perception of a lack of personal risk of infection and risk of vaccine side effects could adversely affect seasonal vaccine uptake. While governments are more often concerned about public anxiety and panic, as well as absenteeism of healthcare and other essential workers during a pandemic, convincing the public of the threat posed by pandemic or seasonal influenza is often the more difficult, and underappreciated task. Thus, appropriate, timely, and data-driven health information are very important issues in increasing influenza vaccine coverage, perhaps even more so in western societies where trust in government and public health reports may be lower than in other countries. This article explores what has been learned about cross-cultural responses to pandemic influenza, and seeks to apply those lessons to seasonal influenza immunization programs. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after exposure to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination or infection: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Ghaderi, Sara; Gunnes, Nina; Bakken, Inger Johanne; Magnus, Per; Trogstad, Lill; Håberg, Siri Eldevik

2016-01-01

Vaccinations and infections are possible triggers of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). However, studies on GBS after vaccinations during the influenza A(H1N1)pmd09 pandemic in 2009, show inconsistent results. Only few studies have addressed the role of influenza infection. We used information from national health data-bases with information on the total Norwegian population (N = 4,832,211). Cox regression analyses with time-varying covariates and self-controlled case series was applied. The risk of being hospitalized with GBS during the pandemic period, within 42 days after an influenza diagnosis or pandemic vaccination was estimated. There were 490 GBS cases during 2009-2012 of which 410 cases occurred after October 1, 2009 of which 46 new cases occurred during the peak period of the influenza pandemic. An influenza diagnosis was registered for 2.47% of the population and the vaccination coverage was 39.25%. The incidence rate ratio of GBS during the pandemic peak relative to other periods was 1.46 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.98]. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of GBS within 42 days after a diagnosis of pandemic influenza was 4.89 (95% CI 1.17-20.36). After pandemic vaccination the adjusted HR was 1.11 (95% CI 0.51-2.43). Our results indicated that there was a significantly increased risk of GBS during the pandemic season and after pandemic influenza infection. However, vaccination did not increase the risk of GBS. The small number of GBS cases in this study warrants caution in the interpretation of the findings.

Predictors of self and parental vaccination decisions in England during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: Analysis of the Flu Watch pandemic cohort data.

PubMed

Weston, Dale; Blackburn, Ruth; Potts, Henry W W; Hayward, Andrew C

2017-07-05

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, UK uptake of the pandemic influenza vaccine was very low. Furthermore, attitudes governing UK vaccination uptake during a pandemic are poorly characterised. To the best of our knowledge, there is no published research explicitly considering predictors of both adult self-vaccination and decisions regarding whether or not to vaccinate one's children among the UK population during the H1N1 pandemic. We therefore aimed to identify predictors of both self-vaccination decisions and parental vaccination decisions using data collected during the H1N1 pandemic as part of the Flu Watch cohort study. Data were analysed separately for 798 adults and 85 children: exploratory factor analysis facilitated reduction of 16 items on attitudes to pandemic vaccine into a smaller number of factors. Single variable analyses with vaccine uptake as the outcome were used to identify variables that were predictive of vaccination in children and adults. Potential predictors were: attitudinal factors created by data reduction, age group, sex, region, deprivation, ethnicity, chronic condition, vocation, healthcare-related occupation and previous influenza vaccination. Consistent with previous literature concerning adult self-vaccination decisions, we found that vaccine efficacy/safety and perceived risk of pandemic influenza were significant predictors of both self-vaccination decisions and parental vaccination decisions. This study provides the first systematic attempt to understand both the predictors of self and parental vaccination uptake among the UK general population during the H1N1 pandemic. Our findings indicate that concerns about vaccine safety, and vaccine effectiveness may be a barrier to increased uptake for both self and parental vaccination. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Adaptive Mutations That Occurred during Circulation in Humans of H1N1 Influenza Virus in the 2009 Pandemic Enhance Virulence in Mice.

PubMed

Otte, A; Sauter, M; Daxer, M A; McHardy, A C; Klingel, K; Gabriel, G

2015-07-01

During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, infection attack rates were particularly high among young individuals who suffered from pneumonia with occasional death. Moreover, previously reported determinants of mammalian adaptation and pathogenicity were not present in 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses. Thus, it was proposed that unknown viral factors might have contributed to disease severity in humans. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of two clinical 2009 pandemic H1N1 strains that belong to the very early and later phases of the pandemic. We identified mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) and the nucleoprotein (NP) that occurred during pandemic progression and mediate increased virulence in mice. Lethal disease outcome correlated with elevated viral replication in the alveolar epithelium, increased proinflammatory cytokine and chemokine responses, pneumonia, and lymphopenia in mice. These findings show that viral mutations that have occurred during pandemic circulation among humans are associated with severe disease in mice. In this study, novel determinants of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza pathogenicity were identified in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) and the nucleoprotein (NP) genes. In contrast to highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, increased virulence in mice did not correlate with enhanced polymerase activity but with reduced activity. Lethal 2009 pandemic H1N1 infection in mice correlated with lymphopenia and severe pneumonia. These studies suggest that molecular mechanisms that mediate 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza pathogenicity are distinct from those that mediate avian influenza virus pathogenicity in mice. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in humans and swine in backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru.

PubMed

Tinoco, Yeny O; Montgomery, Joel M; Kasper, Mathew R; Nelson, Martha I; Razuri, Hugo; Guezala, Maria C; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Barnes, John; Gilman, Robert H; Bausch, Daniel G; Gonzalez, Armando E

2016-01-01

We aimed to determine the frequency of pH1N1 transmission between humans and swine on backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru. Two-year serial cross-sectional study comprising four sampling periods: March 2009 (pre-pandemic), October 2009 (peak of the pandemic in Peru), April 2010 (1st post-pandemic period), and October 2011 (2nd post-pandemic period). Backyard swine serum, tracheal swabs, and lung sample were collected during each sampling period. We assessed current and past pH1N1 infection in swine through serological testing, virus culture, and RT-PCR and compared the results with human incidence data from a population-based active surveillance cohort study in Peru. Among 1303 swine sampled, the antibody prevalence to pH1N1 was 0% pre-pandemic, 8% at the peak of the human pandemic (October 2009), and 24% in April 2010 and 1% in October 2011 (post-pandemic sampling periods). Trends in swine seropositivity paralleled those seen in humans in Tumbes. The pH1N1 virus was isolated from three pigs during the peak of the pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these viruses likely represent two separate human-to-swine transmission events in backyard farm settings. Our findings suggest that human-to-swine pH1N1 transmission occurred during the pandemic among backyard farms in Peru, emphasizing the importance of interspecies transmission in backyard pig populations. Continued surveillance for influenza viruses in backyard farms is warranted. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Government bodies and their influence on the 2009 H1N1 health sector pandemic response in remote and isolated First Nation communities of sub-Arctic Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Charania, N A; Tsuji, L J S

2011-01-01

First Nation communities were highly impacted by the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Multiple government bodies (ie federal, provincial, and First Nations) in Canada share responsibility for the health sector pandemic response in remote and isolated First Nation communities and this may have resulted in a fragmented pandemic response. This study aimed to discover if and how the dichotomy (or trichotomy) of involved government bodies led to barriers faced and opportunities for improvement during the health sector response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in three remote and isolated sub-arctic First Nation communities of northern Ontario, Canada. A qualitative community-based participatory approach was employed. Semi-directed interviews were conducted with adult key informants (n=13) using purposive sampling of participants representing the two (or three) government bodies of each study community. Data were manually transcribed and coded using deductive and inductive thematic analysis to reveal positive aspects, barriers faced, and opportunities for improvement along with the similarities and differences regarding the pandemic responses of each government body. Primary barriers faced by participants included receiving contradicting governmental guidelines and direction from many sources. In addition, there was a lack of human resources, information sharing, and specific details included in community-level pandemic plans. Recommended areas of improvement include developing a complementary communication plan, increasing human resources, and updating community-level pandemic plans. Participants reported many issues that may be attributable to the dichotomy (or trichotomy) of government bodies responsible for healthcare delivery during a pandemic. Increasing formal communication and collaboration between responsible government bodies will assist in clarifying roles and responsibilities and improve the pandemic response in Canada's remote and isolated First Nation communities.

[Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

PubMed

Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

2012-01-01

Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of human influenza viruses in domestic cats

PubMed Central

Ibrahim, Mahmoud; Ali, Ahmed; Daniels, Joshua B.

2016-01-01

The continuous exposure of cats to diverse influenza viruses raises the concern of a potential role of cats in the epidemiology of these viruses. Our previous seroprevalence study of domestic cat sera collected during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic wave (September 2009–September 2010) revealed a high prevalence of pandemic H1N1, as well as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 human flu virus infection (22.5%, 33.0%, and 43.5%, respectively). In this study, we extended the serosurvey of influenza viruses in cat sera collected post-pandemic (June 2011–August 2012). A total of 432 cat sera were tested using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. The results showed an increase in pandemic H1N1 prevalence (33.6%) and a significant reduction in both seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 prevalence (10.9% and 17.6%, respectively) compared to our previous survey conducted during the pandemic wave. The pandemic H1N1 prevalence in cats showed an irregular seasonality pattern in the post-pandemic phase. Pandemic H1N1 reactivity was more frequent among female cats than male cats. In contrast to our earlier finding, no significant association between clinical respiratory disease and influenza virus infection was observed. Our study highlights a high susceptibility among cats to human influenza virus infection that is correlated with influenza prevalence in the human population. PMID:27030198

Including the public in pandemic planning: a deliberative approach

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Against a background of pandemic threat posed by SARS and avian H5N1 influenza, this study used deliberative forums to elucidate informed community perspectives on aspects of pandemic planning. Methods Two deliberative forums were carried out with members of the South Australian community. The forums were supported by a qualitative study with adults and youths, systematic reviews of the literature and the involvement of an extended group of academic experts and policy makers. The forum discussions were recorded with simultaneous transcription and analysed thematically. Results Participants allocated scarce resources of antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccine based on a desire to preserve society function in a time of crisis. Participants were divided on the acceptability of social distancing and quarantine measures. However, should such measures be adopted, they thought that reasonable financial, household and psychological support was essential. In addition, provided such support was present, the participants, in general, were willing to impose strict sanctions on those who violated quarantine and social distancing measures. Conclusions The recommendations from the forums suggest that the implementation of pandemic plans in a severe pandemic will be challenging, but not impossible. Implementation may be more successful if the public is engaged in pandemic planning before a pandemic, effective communication of key points is practiced before and during a pandemic and if judicious use is made of supportive measures to assist those in quarantine or affected by social isolation measures. PMID:20718996

Virus-like particle (VLP)-based vaccines for pandemic influenza

PubMed Central

López-Macías, Constantino

2012-01-01

The influenza pandemic of 2009 demonstrated the inability of the established global capacity for egg-based vaccine production technology to provide sufficient vaccine for the population in a timely fashion. Several alternative technologies for developing influenza vaccines have been proposed, among which non-replicating virus-like particles (VLPs) represent an attractive option because of their safety and immunogenic characteristics. VLP vaccines against pandemic influenza have been developed in tobacco plant cells and in Sf9 insect cells infected with baculovirus that expresses protein genes from pandemic influenza strains. These technologies allow rapid and large-scale production of vaccines (3–12 weeks). The 2009 influenza outbreak provided an opportunity for clinical testing of a pandemic influenza VLP vaccine in the midst of the outbreak at its epicenter in Mexico. An influenza A(H1N1)2009 VLP pandemic vaccine (produced in insect cells) was tested in a phase II clinical trial involving 4,563 healthy adults. Results showed that the vaccine is safe and immunogenic despite high preexisting anti-A(H1N1)2009 antibody titers present in the population. The safety and immunogenicity profile presented by this pandemic VLP vaccine during the outbreak in Mexico suggests that VLP technology is a suitable alternative to current influenza vaccine technologies for producing pandemic and seasonal vaccines. PMID:22330956

Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Shanks, G Dennis; Hussell, Tracy; Brundage, John F

2012-11-01

During the 1918 pandemic period, influenza-related mortality increased worldwide; however, mortality rates varied widely across locations and demographic subgroups. Islands are isolated epidemiological situations that may elucidate why influenza pandemic mortality rates were so variable in apparently similar populations. Our objectives were to determine and compare the patterns of pandemic influenza mortality on islands. We reviewed historical records of mortality associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in various military and civilian groups on islands. Mortality differed more than 50-fold during pandemic-related epidemics on Pacific islands [range: 0.4% (Hawaii) to 22% (Samoa)], and on some islands, mortality sharply varied among demographic subgroups of island residents such as Saipan: Chamorros [12%] and Caroline Islanders [0.4%]. Among soldiers from island populations who had completed initial military training, influenza-related mortality rates were generally low, for example, Puerto Rico (0.7%) and French Polynesia (0.13%). The findings suggest that among island residents, those who had been exposed to multiple, antigenically diverse respiratory pathogens prior to infection with the 1918 pandemic strain (e.g., less isolated) experienced lower mortality. The continuous circulation of antigenically diverse influenza viruses and other respiratory infectious agents makes widespread high mortality during future influenza pandemics unlikely. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

2010-11-01

Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Social justice in pandemic preparedness.

PubMed

DeBruin, Debra; Liaschenko, Joan; Marshall, Mary Faith

2012-04-01

Pandemic influenza planning in the United States violates the demands of social justice in 2 fundamental respects: it embraces the neutrality of procedural justice at the expense of more substantive concern with health disparities, thus perpetuating a predictable and preventable social injustice, and it fails to move beyond lament to practical planning for alleviating barriers to accessing care. A pragmatic social justice approach, addressing both health disparities and access barriers, should inform pandemic preparedness. Achieving social justice goals in pandemic response is challenging, but strategies are available to overcome the obstacles. The public engagement process of one state's pandemic ethics project influenced the development of these strategies.

Social Justice in Pandemic Preparedness

PubMed Central

Liaschenko, Joan; Marshall, Mary Faith

2012-01-01

Pandemic influenza planning in the United States violates the demands of social justice in 2 fundamental respects: it embraces the neutrality of procedural justice at the expense of more substantive concern with health disparities, thus perpetuating a predictable and preventable social injustice, and it fails to move beyond lament to practical planning for alleviating barriers to accessing care. A pragmatic social justice approach, addressing both health disparities and access barriers, should inform pandemic preparedness. Achieving social justice goals in pandemic response is challenging, but strategies are available to overcome the obstacles. The public engagement process of one state's pandemic ethics project influenced the development of these strategies. PMID:22397337

[Influenza pandemic: hypotheses and facts].

PubMed

Gendon, Iu Z

2008-01-01

Data on influenza pandemics as well as on the characteristics of influenza viruses, which caused pandemicsin 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977 are presented. Mechanisms of pandemic influenza virus strains evolving, including mutations resulting in increase of virulence, as well as possibility of human and avian influenza viruses reassortment process as the source of pandemic strains are discussed. Mechanisms of transformation of mildly virulent influenza virus strains to highly virulent, which can cause epizootics, are reviewed. Genes and proteins determining species specificity of avian influenza viruses as well as possible emergence of influenza pandemic caused by H5N1 strain are discussed. Suggestion of low probability of such event is expressed.

Virulence determinants of pandemic influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Tscherne, Donna M.; García-Sastre, Adolfo

2011-01-01

Influenza A viruses cause recurrent, seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics with devastating levels of morbidity and mortality. The ability of influenza A viruses to adapt to various hosts and undergo reassortment events ensures constant generation of new strains with unpredictable degrees of pathogenicity, transmissibility, and pandemic potential. Currently, the combination of factors that drives the emergence of pandemic influenza is unclear, making it impossible to foresee the details of a future outbreak. Identification and characterization of influenza A virus virulence determinants may provide insight into genotypic signatures of pathogenicity as well as a more thorough understanding of the factors that give rise to pandemics. PMID:21206092

Possible Increased Pathogenicity of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Virus upon Reassortment

PubMed Central

Schrauwen, Eefje J.A.; Herfst, Sander; Chutinimitkul, Salin; Bestebroer, Theo M.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Kuiken, Thijs

2011-01-01

Since emergence of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in April 2009, three influenza A viruses—seasonal (H3N2), seasonal (H1N1), and pandemic (H1N1) 2009—have circulated in humans. Genetic reassortment between these viruses could result in enhanced pathogenicity. We compared 4 reassortant viruses with favorable in vitro replication properties with the wild-type pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus with respect to replication kinetics in vitro and pathogenicity and transmission in ferrets. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses containing basic polymerase 2 alone or in combination with acidic polymerase of seasonal (H1N1) virus were attenuated in ferrets. In contrast, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 with neuraminidase of seasonal (H3N2) virus resulted in increased virus replication and more severe pulmonary lesions. The data show that pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus has the potential to reassort with seasonal influenza viruses, which may result in increased pathogenicity while it maintains the capacity of transmission through aerosols or respiratory droplets. PMID:21291589

Avian influenza virus (H5N1): a threat to human health.

PubMed

Peiris, J S Malik; de Jong, Menno D; Guan, Yi

2007-04-01

Pandemic influenza virus has its origins in avian influenza viruses. The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is already panzootic in poultry, with attendant economic consequences. It continues to cross species barriers to infect humans and other mammals, often with fatal outcomes. Therefore, H5N1 virus has rightly received attention as a potential pandemic threat. However, it is noted that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 did not arise from highly pathogenic influenza viruses, and the next pandemic may well arise from a low-pathogenicity virus. The rationale for particular concern about an H5N1 pandemic is not its inevitability but its potential severity. An H5N1 pandemic is an event of low probability but one of high human health impact and poses a predicament for public health. Here, we review the ecology and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses, assess the pandemic risk, and address aspects of human H5N1 disease in relation to its epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, diagnosis, and management.

Investing in Immunity: Prepandemic Immunization to Combat Future Influenza Pandemics.

PubMed

Goodman, Jesse L

2016-02-15

We are unlikely, with current technologies, to have sufficient pandemic influenza vaccine ready in time to impact the first wave of the next pandemic. Emerging data show that prior immunization with an immunologically distinct hemagglutinin of the same subtype offers the potential to "prime" recipients for rapid protection with a booster dose, years later, of a vaccine then manufactured to match the pandemic strain. This article proposes making prepandemic priming vaccine(s) available for voluntary use, particularly to those at high risk of early occupational exposure, such as first responders and healthcare workers, and to others maintaining critical infrastructure. In addition to providing faster protection and potentially reducing social disruption, being able, early in a pandemic, to immunize those who had received prepandemic vaccine with one dose of the pandemic vaccine, rather than the 2 doses typically required, would reduce the total doses of pandemic vaccine then needed, extending vaccine supplies. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Vaccines as Epidemic Insurance

PubMed Central

Pauly, Mark V.

2017-01-01

This paper explores the relationship between the research for and development of vaccines against global pandemics and insurance. It shows that development in advance of pandemics of a portfolio of effective and government-approved vaccines does have some insurance properties: it requires incurring costs that are certain (the costs of discovering, developing, and testing vaccines) in return for protection against large losses (if a pandemic treatable with one of the vaccines occurs) but also with the possibility of no benefit (from a vaccine against a disease that never reaches the pandemic stage). It then argues that insurance against the latter event might usefully be offered to organizations developing vaccines, and explores the benefits of insurance payments to or on behalf of countries who suffer from unpredictable pandemics. These ideas are then related to recent government, industry, and philanthropic efforts to develop better policies to make vaccines against pandemics available on a timely basis. PMID:29076995

Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

PubMed

Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

2013-01-01

The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A; Shanks, G Dennis; Baker, Michael G

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

Differential Mortality Rates by Ethnicity in 3 Influenza Pandemics Over a Century, New Zealand

PubMed Central

Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A.; Shanks, G. Dennis; Baker, Michael G.

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3–5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses. PMID:22257434

Novel Framework for Assessing Epidemiologic Effects of Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

PubMed Central

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M.; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C.; Jernigan, Daniel B.

2013-01-01

The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making. PMID:23260039

Vaccines as Epidemic Insurance.

PubMed

Pauly, Mark V

2017-10-27

This paper explores the relationship between the research for and development of vaccines against global pandemics and insurance. It shows that development in advance of pandemics of a portfolio of effective and government-approved vaccines does have some insurance properties: it requires incurring costs that are certain (the costs of discovering, developing, and testing vaccines) in return for protection against large losses (if a pandemic treatable with one of the vaccines occurs) but also with the possibility of no benefit (from a vaccine against a disease that never reaches the pandemic stage). It then argues that insurance against the latter event might usefully be offered to organizations developing vaccines, and explores the benefits of insurance payments to or on behalf of countries who suffer from unpredictable pandemics. These ideas are then related to recent government, industry, and philanthropic efforts to develop better policies to make vaccines against pandemics available on a timely basis.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences. PMID:23234604

Influenza A virus recycling revisited.

PubMed Central

Dowdle, W. R.

1999-01-01

Current textbooks link influenza pandemics to influenza A virus subtypes H2 (1889-91), H3 (1990), H1 (1918-20), H2 (1957-58) and H3 (1968), a pattern suggesting subtype recycling in humans. Since H1 reappeared in 1977, whatever its origin, some workers feel that H2 is the next pandemic candidate. This report reviews the publications on which the concept of influenza A virus subtype recycling is based and concludes that the data are inconsistent with the purported sequence of events. The three influenza pandemics prior to 1957-58 were linked with subtypes through retrospective studies of sera from the elderly, or through seroarchaeology. The pandemic seroarchaeological model for subtype H1 has been validated by the recent recovery of swine virus RNA fragments from persons who died from influenza in 1918. Application of the model to pre-existing H3 antibody among the elderly links the H3 subtype to the pandemic of 1889-91, not that of 1900 as popularly quoted. Application of the model to pre-existing H2 antibody among the elderly fails to confirm that this subtype caused a pandemic in the late 1800's, a finding which is consistent with age-related excess mortality patterns during the pandemics of 1957 (H2) and 1968 (H3). H2 variants should be included in pandemic planning for a number of reasons, but not because of evidence of recycling. It is not known when the next pandemic will occur or which of the 15 (or more) haemagglutinin subtypes will be involved. Effective global surveillance remains the key to influenza preparedness. PMID:10593030

Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic - The model behind the documentary.

PubMed

Klepac, Petra; Kissler, Stephen; Gog, Julia

2018-03-21

To mark the centenary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the broadcasting network BBC have put together a 75-min documentary called 'Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic'. Central to the documentary is a nationwide citizen science experiment, during which volunteers in the United Kingdom could download and use a custom mobile phone app called BBC Pandemic, and contribute their movement and contact data for a day. As the 'maths team', we were asked to use the data from the app to build and run a model of how a pandemic would spread in the UK. The headline results are presented in the TV programme. Here, we document in detail how the model works, and how we shaped it according the incredibly rich data coming from the BBC Pandemic app. We have barely scratched the depth of the volunteer data available from the app. The work presented in this article had the sole purpose of generating a single detailed simulation of a pandemic influenza-like outbreak in the UK. When the BBC Pandemic app has completed its collection period, the vast dataset will be made available to the scientific community (expected early 2019). It will take much more time and input from a broad range of researchers to fully exploit all that this dataset has to offer. But here at least we were able to harness some of the power of the BBC Pandemic data to contribute something which we hope will capture the interest and engagement of a broad audience. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu?

MedlinePlus

... Home Current Issue Past Issues How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu? Past Issues / Fall 2006 Table of Contents For ... of this page please turn Javascript on. Seasonal Flu Pandemic Flu Outbreaks follow predictable seasonal patterns; occurs ...

A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Halder, Nilimesh; Kelso, Joel K; Milne, George J

2014-05-16

A vaccine matched to a newly emerged pandemic influenza virus would require a production time of at least 6 months with current proven techniques, and so could only be used reactively after the peak of the pandemic. A pre-pandemic vaccine, although probably having lower efficacy, could be produced and used pre-emptively. While several previous studies have investigated the cost effectiveness of pre-emptive vaccination strategies, they have not been directly compared to realistic reactive vaccination strategies. An individual-based simulation model of ~30,000 people was used to examine a pre-emptive vaccination strategy, assuming vaccination conducted prior to a pandemic using a low-efficacy vaccine. A reactive vaccination strategy, assuming a 6-month delay between pandemic emergence and availability of a high-efficacy vaccine, was also modelled. Social distancing and antiviral interventions were examined in combination with these alternative vaccination strategies. Moderate and severe pandemics were examined, based on estimates of transmissibility and clinical severity of the 1957 and 1918 pandemics respectively, and the cost effectiveness of each strategy was evaluated. Provided that a pre-pandemic vaccine achieved at least 30% efficacy, pre-emptive vaccination strategies were found to be more cost effective when compared to reactive vaccination strategies. Reactive vaccination coupled with sustained social distancing and antiviral interventions was found to be as effective at saving lives as pre-emptive vaccination coupled with limited duration social distancing and antiviral use, with both strategies saving approximately 420 life-years per 10,000 population for a moderate pandemic with a basic reproduction number of 1.9 and case fatality rate of 0.25%. Reactive vaccination was however more costly due to larger productivity losses incurred by sustained social distancing, costing $8 million per 10,000 population ($19,074/LYS) versus $6.8 million per 10,000 population ($15,897/LYS) for a pre-emptive vaccination strategy. Similar trends were observed for severe pandemics. Compared to reactive vaccination, pre-emptive strategies would be more effective and more cost effective, conditional on the pre-pandemic vaccine being able to achieve a certain level of coverage and efficacy. Reactive vaccination strategies exist which are as effective at mortality reduction as pre-emptive strategies, though they are less cost effective.

A model-based economic analysis of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination cost-effectiveness

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A vaccine matched to a newly emerged pandemic influenza virus would require a production time of at least 6 months with current proven techniques, and so could only be used reactively after the peak of the pandemic. A pre-pandemic vaccine, although probably having lower efficacy, could be produced and used pre-emptively. While several previous studies have investigated the cost effectiveness of pre-emptive vaccination strategies, they have not been directly compared to realistic reactive vaccination strategies. Methods An individual-based simulation model of ~30,000 people was used to examine a pre-emptive vaccination strategy, assuming vaccination conducted prior to a pandemic using a low-efficacy vaccine. A reactive vaccination strategy, assuming a 6-month delay between pandemic emergence and availability of a high-efficacy vaccine, was also modelled. Social distancing and antiviral interventions were examined in combination with these alternative vaccination strategies. Moderate and severe pandemics were examined, based on estimates of transmissibility and clinical severity of the 1957 and 1918 pandemics respectively, and the cost effectiveness of each strategy was evaluated. Results Provided that a pre-pandemic vaccine achieved at least 30% efficacy, pre-emptive vaccination strategies were found to be more cost effective when compared to reactive vaccination strategies. Reactive vaccination coupled with sustained social distancing and antiviral interventions was found to be as effective at saving lives as pre-emptive vaccination coupled with limited duration social distancing and antiviral use, with both strategies saving approximately 420 life-years per 10,000 population for a moderate pandemic with a basic reproduction number of 1.9 and case fatality rate of 0.25%. Reactive vaccination was however more costly due to larger productivity losses incurred by sustained social distancing, costing $8 million per 10,000 population ($19,074/LYS) versus $6.8 million per 10,000 population ($15,897/LYS) for a pre-emptive vaccination strategy. Similar trends were observed for severe pandemics. Conclusions Compared to reactive vaccination, pre-emptive strategies would be more effective and more cost effective, conditional on the pre-pandemic vaccine being able to achieve a certain level of coverage and efficacy. Reactive vaccination strategies exist which are as effective at mortality reduction as pre-emptive strategies, though they are less cost effective. PMID:24884470

The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The role of demographic factors, climatic conditions, school cycles, and connectivity patterns in shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza is not clearly understood. Here we analyzed the spatial, age and temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile, a southern hemisphere country covering a long and narrow strip comprising latitudes 17°S to 56°S. Methods We analyzed the dissemination patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic across 15 regions of Chile based on daily hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory disease and laboratory confirmed A/H1N1 influenza infection from 01-May to 31-December, 2009. We explored the association between timing of pandemic onset and peak pandemic activity and several geographical and demographic indicators, school vacations, climatic factors, and international passengers. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the exponential pandemic phase by date of symptoms onset, estimated using maximum likelihood methods. Results While earlier pandemic onset was associated with larger population size, there was no association with connectivity, demographic, school or climatic factors. In contrast, there was a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic timing, representing a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region (P < 0.001). Geographical differences in latitude of Chilean regions, maximum temperature and specific humidity explained 68.5% of the variability in peak timing (P = 0.01). In addition, there was a decreasing gradient in reproduction number from south to north Chile (P < 0.0001). The regional mean R estimates were 1.6-2.0, 1.3-1.5, and 1.2-1.3 for southern, central and northern regions, respectively, which were not affected by the winter vacation period. Conclusions There was a lag in the period of most intense 2009 pandemic influenza activity following a South to North traveling pattern across regions of Chile, significantly associated with geographical differences in minimum temperature and specific humidity. The latitudinal gradient in timing of pandemic activity was accompanied by a gradient in reproduction number (P < 0.0001). Intensified surveillance strategies in colder and drier southern regions could lead to earlier detection of pandemic influenza viruses and improved control outcomes. PMID:23148597

Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection

PubMed Central

Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

2009-01-01

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains. PMID:20029606

Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-15

USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT AVIAN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC MAY EXPAND THE MILITARY ROLE IN DISASTER RELIEF by Colonel Frank William Sherod II United... Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 ABSTRACT AUTHOR: Colonel Frank William Sherod II TITLE: Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand The Military Role

Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinhardt, Bernice

2009-01-01

As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making.

PubMed

Thompson, Alison K; Faith, Karen; Gibson, Jennifer L; Upshur, Ross E G

2006-12-04

Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

Lessons from pandemic influenza A(H1N1): the research-based vaccine industry's perspective.

PubMed

Abelin, Atika; Colegate, Tony; Gardner, Stephen; Hehme, Norbert; Palache, Abraham

2011-02-01

As A(H1N1) influenza enters the post-pandemic phase, health authorities around the world are reviewing the response to the pandemic. To ensure this process enhances future preparations, it is essential that perspectives are included from all relevant stakeholders, including vaccine manufacturers. This paper outlines the contribution of R&D-based influenza vaccine producers to the pandemic response, and explores lessons that can be learned to improve future preparedness. The emergence of 2009 A(H1N1) influenza led to unprecedented collaboration between global health authorities, scientists and manufacturers, resulting in the most comprehensive pandemic response ever undertaken, with a number of vaccines approved for use three months after the pandemic declaration. This response was only possible because of the extensive preparations undertaken during the last decade. During this period, manufacturers greatly increased influenza vaccine production capacity, and estimates suggest a further doubling of capacity by 2014. Producers also introduced cell-culture technology, while adjuvant and whole virion technologies significantly reduced pandemic vaccine antigen content. This substantially increased pandemic vaccine production capacity, which in July 2009 WHO estimated reached 4.9 billion doses per annum. Manufacturers also worked with health authorities to establish risk management plans for robust vaccine surveillance during the pandemic. Individual producers pledged significant donations of vaccine doses and tiered-pricing approaches for developing country supply. Based on the pandemic experience, a number of improvements would strengthen future preparedness. Technical improvements to rapidly select optimal vaccine viruses, and processes to speed up vaccine standardization, could accelerate and extend vaccine availability. Establishing vaccine supply agreements beforehand would avoid the need for complex discussions during a period of intense time pressure. Enhancing international regulatory co-operation and mutual recognition of approvals could accelerate vaccine supply, while maintaining safety standards. Strengthening communications with the public and healthcare workers using new approaches and new channels could help improve vaccine uptake. Finally, increasing seasonal vaccine coverage will be particularly important to extend and sustain pandemic vaccine production capacity. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

PubMed

Wong, Eliza L Y; Wong, Samuel Y S; Kung, Kenny; Cheung, Annie W L; Gao, Tiffany T; Griffiths, Sian

2010-04-30

Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3%) or "not sure" (43.6%) to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0%) and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%). The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02). Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p < 0.001) and found work more emotionally stressful (p < 0.001). Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. Results The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3%) or "not sure" (43.6%) to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0%) and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%). The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02). Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p < 0.001) and found work more emotionally stressful (p < 0.001). Conclusions Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic. PMID:20433691

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

Mobilising "vulnerability" in the public health response to pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Stephenson, Niamh; Davis, Mark; Flowers, Paul; MacGregor, Casimir; Waller, Emily

2014-02-01

Analysis of public health's growing interest in "vulnerability" has largely focused on health policy, with little interrogation of how vulnerability is being actively appropriated, countered, ignored or reworked by the publics whose health such policy is designed to protect. Once the assemblage of public health is understood as comprised of different forms of expertise and actors, including publics, addressing this gap matters. We examine the use of vulnerability in the specific context of pandemic influenza preparedness. Pandemic preparedness raises some familiar dilemmas for public health governance: how to engage with publics without fuelling social divisions and disruption; and whether to invoke publics as passive recipients of public health advice or to recognise publics as collective agents responding to the threat of pandemic influenza. Thus, we ask how the mobilisation of vulnerability connects with these dilemmas. To examine vulnerability in pandemic preparedness, two forms of qualitative data are analysed: 1) interviews and focus groups with "vulnerable" and "healthy" people (conducted 2011-12) discussing seasonal and pandemic influenza and; 2) international, Australian national and state level pandemic plans (1999-2013). Vulnerability is variously used in plans as a way to identify groups at particular risk of infection because of pre-existing clinical conditions, and as a free-floating social category that could apply to a broad range of people potentially involved in the social disruption a pandemic might entail. Our interview and focus group data indicate that healthy people rework the free-floating extension of vulnerability, and that people designated vulnerable encounter an absence of any collective responsibility for the threat of pandemic influenza. Our analysis suggests that vulnerability's mobilisation in pandemic preparedness limits the connection between public health governance and its publics: here, the openness and unpredictability of people's collective agency is something to be tightly controlled by a government concerned with protecting people from themselves. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Degree of adherence to recommended antiviral treatment during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 148 intensive care units in Spain.

PubMed

Canadell, L; Martín-Loeches, I; Díaz, E; Trefler, S; Grau, S; Yebenes, J C; Almirall, J; Olona, M; Sureda, F; Blanquer, J; Rodriguez, A

2015-05-01

To determine the degree of antiviral treatment recommendations adherence and its impact to critical ill patients affected by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 mortality. Secondary analysis of prospective study. Intensive care (UCI). Patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2009 pandemic and 2010-11 post-Pandemic periods. Adherence to recommendations was classified as: Total (AT); partial in doses (PD); partial in time (PT), and non-adherence (NA). Viral pneumonia, obesity and mechanical ventilation were considered severity criteria for the administration of high antiviral dose. The analysis was performed using t-test or «chi» square. Survival analysis was performed and adjusted by Cox regression analysis. A total of 1,058 patients, 661 (62.5%) included in the pandemic and 397 (37.5%) in post-pandemic period respectively. Global adherence was achieved in 41.6% (43.9% and 38.0%; P=.07 respectively). Severity criteria were similar in both periods (68.5% vs. 62.8%; P=.06). The AT was 54.7% in pandemic and 36.4% in post-pandemic period respectively (P<.01). The NA (19.7% vs. 11.3%; P<.05) and PT (20.8% vs. 9.9%, P<.01) was more frequent in the post-pandemic period. The mortality rate was higher in the post-pandemic period (30% vs. 21.8%, P<.001). APACHE II (HR=1.09) and hematologic disease (HR=2.2) were associated with a higher mortality and adherence (HR=0.47) was a protective factor. A low degree of adherence to the antiviral treatment was observed in both periods. Adherence to antiviral treatment recommendations was associated with lower mortality rates and should be recommended in critically ill patients with suspected influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Willingness of Hong Kong healthcare workers to accept pre-pandemic influenza vaccination at different WHO alert levels: two questionnaire surveys

PubMed Central

Chor, Josette S Y; Ngai, Karry LK; Goggins, William B; Wong, Martin C S; Wong, Samuel Y S; Lee, Nelson; Leung, Ting-fan; Rainer, Timothy H; Griffiths, Sian

2009-01-01

Objective To assess the acceptability of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination among healthcare workers in public hospitals in Hong Kong and the effect of escalation in the World Health Organization’s alert level for an influenza pandemic. Design Repeated cross sectional studies using self administered, anonymous questionnaires Setting Surveys at 31 hospital departments of internal medicine, paediatrics, and emergency medicine under the Hong Kong Hospital Authority from January to March 2009 and in May 2009 Participants 2255 healthcare workers completed the questionnaires in the two studies. They were doctors, nurses, or allied health professionals working in the public hospital system. Main outcome measures Stated willingness to accept pre-pandemic influenza vaccination (influenza A subtypes H5N1 or H1N1) and its associating factors. Results The overall willingness to accept pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine was only 28.4% in the first survey, conducted at WHO influenza pandemic alert phase 3. No significant changes in the level of willingness to accept pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine were observed despite the escalation to alert phase 5. The willingness to accept pre-pandemic H1N1 vaccine was 47.9% among healthcare workers when the WHO alert level was at phase 5. The most common reasons for an intention to accept were “wish to be protected” and “following health authority’s advice.” The major barriers identified were fear of side effects and doubts about efficacy. More than half of the respondents thought nurses should be the first priority group to receive the vaccines. The strongest positive associating factors were history of seasonal influenza vaccination and perceived risk of contracting the infection. Conclusions The willingness to accept pre-pandemic influenza vaccination was low, and no significant effect was observed with the change in WHO alert level. Further studies are required to elucidate the root cause of the low intention to accept pre-pandemic vaccination. PMID:19706937

Pandemic policy and planning considerations for universities: findings from a tabletop exercise.

PubMed

Beaton, Randal; Stergachis, Andy; Thompson, Jack; Osaki, Carl; Johnson, Clark; Charvat, Steven J; Marsden-Haug, Nicola

2007-12-01

The potential for a novel influenza virus to cause a pandemic represents a significant threat to global health. Planning for pandemic flu, as compared to planning for other types of hazards, presents some unique challenges to businesses, communities, and education institutions. To identify and address the challenges that may be faced by major metropolitan universities during a flu pandemic, a tabletop exercise was developed, offered, and evaluated. Its purpose was to assess existing University of Washington (UW) plans and policies for responding to an influenza pandemic. On May 31, 2006, more than 50 participants, including UW administrators and unit leaders and a number of key external partners, participated in a tabletop exercise designed to simulate all phases of an influenza pandemic. This exercise revealed existing gaps in university pandemic influenza plans and policies, including issues related to isolation and quarantine, continuity of operations, disaster mental health services, integration of volunteers into a disaster response, tracking travel of university students and personnel, communication problems, and ways to meet the needs of resident and foreign students and faculty during an outbreak. Policy and planning recommendations are offered that address each of these challenges faced by UW as well as other major research universities and colleges.

Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE): use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Lone, Nazir; McMenamin, Jim; Gunson, Rory; Robertson, Chris; Ritchie, Lewis D; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza. We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups. An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic). A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data. We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology. Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated. To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be measured. A new sentinel system, capable of rapidly determining the estimated incidence of pandemic influenza, and pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral uptake and effectiveness in preventing influenza and influenza-related clinical outcomes, has been created. We have all of the required regulatory approvals to allow rapid activation of the sentinel systems in the event of a pandemic. Of the 41 practices expressing an interest in participating, 40 have completed all of the necessary paperwork to take part in the reporting platform. The data extraction tool has been installed in these practices. Data extraction and deterministic linkage systems have been tested. Four biochemistry laboratories have been recruited, and systems for serology collection and linkage of samples to general practice data have been put in place. The reporting platform has been set up and is ready to be activated in the event of any pandemic of influenza. Building on this infrastructure, there is now the opportunity to extend the network of general practices to allow important subgroup analyses of VE (e.g. for patients with comorbidities, at risk of serious ILI) and to link to other data sources, in particular to test for maternal outcomes in pregnant patients. This study is registered as ISRCTN55398410. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Using Historical Examples to Inform the Department of Defense’s Response to the Next Pandemic

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

international containment as near as possible to the origin of an outbreak. Conclusion: The influenza pandemic of 1918 was the most rapidly lethal...fighting strength. Troop ships from the US delivered 1,700 new influenza cases to Brest , France in September 1918.26 These sick soldiers, far from...the population of the US during the pandemic because distrust and terror follow fear. 47 Fear led people to question the origin of the

Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

PubMed

Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

2016-03-01

The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Regimes of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing

PubMed Central

Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele

2017-01-01

El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) dynamics has been shown to drive seasonal influenza dynamics. Severe seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009–2010 pandemic were coincident with chaotic regime of ENSO dynamics. ENSO dynamics from 1876 to 2016 were characterized to determine if influenza pandemics are coupled to chaotic regimes. Time-varying spectra of southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) were compared. SOI and SST were decomposed to components using the algorithm of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition. The components were Hilbert transformed to generate instantaneous amplitudes and phases. The trajectories and attractors of components were characterized in polar coordinates and state space. Influenza pandemics were mapped to dynamic regimes of SOI and SST joint recurrence of annual components. State space geometry of El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics were characterized and compared with other El Niños. Timescales of SOI and SST components ranged from sub-annual to multidecadal. The trajectories of SOI and SST components and the joint recurrence of annual components were dissipative toward chaotic attractors. Periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic regimes were present in the recurrence of trajectories, but chaos–chaos transitions dominated. Influenza pandemics occurred during chaotic regimes of significantly low transitivity dimension (p < 0.0001). El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics had distinct state space geometry (p < 0.0001). Chaotic dynamics explains the aperiodic timing, and varying duration and strength of El Niños. Coupling of all influenza pandemics of the past 140 years to chaotic regimes of low transitivity indicate that ENSO dynamics drives influenza pandemic dynamics. Forecasts models from ENSO dynamics should compliment surveillance for novel influenza viruses. PMID:29218303

Pandemic risk prevention in European countries: role of the ECDC in preparing for pandemics. Development and experience with a national self-assessment procedure, 2005-2008.

PubMed

Nicoll, A

2010-12-01

To be effective risk prevention work takes place well before pandemics through the three Ps: Planning, Preparedness and Practise. Between 2005 and 2008 the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) worked with the European Commission (EC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe (WHO-Euro) to assist European countries in preparing themselves for a future influenza pandemic. All eligible countries in the European Union and European Economic Area participated with energy and commitment. Indicators of preparedness were developed based on WHO planning guidance and these were set within a simple assessment which included a formal country visit. The procedure evolved considerably with field experience. As the complexity of pandemic preparedness was appreciated it changed from being a classical short external assessment to longer national self-assessments with demonstrable impact, especially when self-assessments were published. There were essential supporting activities undertaken including a series of pan-European pandemic preparedness workshops organised by EC, WHO-Euro, ECDC and countries holding the European Union Presidency. The self-assessments highlighted additional work and documentation that was needed by national authorities from the ECDC. This work was undertaken and the document produced. The benefits of the self-assessments were seen in the 2009 pandemic in that EU/EEA countries performed better than some others. A number of the guidance documents were updated to fit the specific features of the pandemic. However the pandemic revealed many weaknesses and brought new challenges for European countries, notably over communication and vaccines, the need to prepare for a variety of scenarios and to factor severity estimates into preparedness, to improve surveillance for severe disease and to deliver seroepidemiology. Any revised self-assessment procedure will need to respond to these challenges.

H5N1 vaccines in humans

PubMed Central

Baz, Mariana; Luke, Catherine J; Cheng, Xing; Jin, Hong; Subbarao, Kanta

2013-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses since 1997 and their virulence for poultry and humans has raised concerns about their potential to cause an influenza pandemic. Vaccines offer the most viable means to combat a pandemic threat. However, it will be a challenge to produce, distribute and implement a new vaccine if a pandemic spreads rapidly. Therefore, efforts are being undertaken to develop pandemic vaccines that use less antigen and induce cross-protective and long-lasting responses, that can be administered as soon as a pandemic is declared or possibly even before, in order to prime the population and allow for a rapid and protective antibody response. In the last few years, several vaccine manufacturers have developed candidate pandemic and pre-pandemic vaccines, based on reverse genetics and have improved the immunogenicity by formulating these vaccines with different adjuvants. Some of the important and consistent observations from clinical studies with H5N1 vaccines are as follows: two doses of inactivated vaccine are generally necessary to elicit the level of immunity required to meet licensure criteria, less antigen can be used if an oil-in-water adjuvant is included, in general antibody titers decline rapidly but can be boosted with additional doses of vaccine and if high titers of antibody are elicited, cross-reactivity against other clades is observed. Prime-boost strategies elicit a more robust immune response. In this review, we discuss data from clinical trials with a variety of H5N1 influenza vaccines. We also describe studies conducted in animal models to explore the possibility of reassortment between pandemic live attenuated vaccine candidates and seasonal influenza viruses, since this is an important consideration for the use of live vaccines in a pandemic setting. PMID:23726847

Psychological impact of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on general hospital workers in Kobe.

PubMed

Matsuishi, Kunitaka; Kawazoe, Ayako; Imai, Hissei; Ito, Atsushi; Mouri, Kentaro; Kitamura, Noboru; Miyake, Keiko; Mino, Koichi; Isobe, Masanori; Takamiya, Shizuo; Hitokoto, Hidefumi; Mita, Tatsuo

2012-06-01

In order for hospitals to work efficiently in a pandemic, it is important to know how a pandemic affects the hospital staff. The aim of the present study was to investigate the psychological impact of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on hospital workers and how it was affected by the characteristics of the hospital, gender, age, job and work environment. In late June 2009, soon after the pandemic had ended in Kobe city, Japan, a questionnaire was distributed consisting of questions on sociodemographic characteristics, 19 stress-related questions and the Impact of Event Scale (IES) to all 3635 employees at three core general hospitals in Kobe. Exploratory factor analysis was applied to the 19 stress-related questions, and this produced four factors for evaluation (anxiety about infection, exhaustion, workload, and feeling of being protected). Multiple regression models were used to evaluate the association of personal characteristics with each score of the four factors and the IES. Valid answers were received from 1625 employees. Workers at a hospital with intense liaison psychiatric services felt less psychological impact. Workers at a hospital that provided staff with information about the pandemic less frequently, felt unprotected. Workers in work environments that had a high risk of infection felt more anxious and more exhausted. The total IES score was higher in workers in high-risk work environments. It is important for hospitals to protect hospital workers during a pandemic and to rapidly share information about the pandemic. Liaison psychiatric services can help to reduce the impact of the pandemic on hospital workers. © 2012 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2012 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Assessing the State of Knowledge Regarding the Effectiveness of Interventions to Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.

PubMed

Saunders-Hastings, Patrick; Reisman, Jane; Krewski, Daniel

2016-01-01

Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, to which humans are immunologically naïve, emerges to cause infection and illness on a global scale. Differences in the viral properties of pandemic strains, relative to seasonal ones, can alter the effectiveness of interventions typically implemented to control seasonal influenza burden. As a result, annual control activities may not be sufficient to contain an influenza pandemic. This study seeks to inform pandemic policy and planning initiatives by reviewing the effectiveness of previous interventions to reduce pandemic influenza transmission and infection. Results will inform the planning and design of more focused in-depth systematic reviews for specific types of interventions, thus providing the most comprehensive and current understanding of the potential for alternative interventions to mitigate the burden of pandemic influenza. A systematic review and narrative synthesis of existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining intervention effectiveness in containing pandemic influenza transmission was conducted using information collected from five databases (PubMed, Medline, Cochrane, Embase, and Cinahl/EBSCO). Two independent reviewers conducted study screening and quality assessment, extracting data related to intervention impact and effectiveness. Most included reviews were of moderate to high quality. Although the degree of statistical heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis, the present systematic review examines the wide variety of interventions that can impact influenza transmission in different ways. While it appears that pandemic influenza vaccination provides significant protection against infection, there was insufficient evidence to conclude that antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal influenza cross-protection, or a range of non-pharmaceutical strategies would provide appreciable protection when implemented in isolation. It is likely that an optimal intervention strategy will employ a combination of interventions in a layered approach, though more research is needed to substantiate this proposition. PROSPERO 42016039803.

Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Among Public-Housing Residents, Single-Parent Families, and Low-Income Populations

PubMed Central

Truman, Benedict I.; Hutchins, Sonja; Richard, Roland; Brown, Clive; Guillory, Joyce A.; Rashid, Jamila

2009-01-01

During the early stages of an influenza pandemic, a pandemic vaccine likely will not be available. Therefore, interventions to mitigate pandemic influenza transmission in communities will be an important component of the response to a pandemic. Public-housing residents, single-parent families, and low-income populations may have difficulty complying with community-wide interventions. To enable compliance with community interventions, stakeholders recommended the following: (1) community mobilization and partnerships, (2) culturally specific emergency communications planning, (3) culturally specific education and training programs, (4) evidence-based measurement and evaluation efforts, (5) strategic planning policies, (6) inclusion of community members as partners, and (7) policy and program changes to minimize morbidity and mortality. PMID:19797740

Influenza pandemic periodicity, virus recycling, and the art of risk assessment.

PubMed

Dowdle, Walter R

2006-01-01

Influenza pandemic risk assessment is an uncertain art. The theory that influenza A virus pandemics occur every 10 to 11 years and seroarcheologic evidence of virus recycling set the stage in early 1976 for risk assessment and risk management of the Fort Dix, New Jersey, swine influenza outbreak. Additional data and passage of time proved the theory untenable. Much has been learned about influenza A virus and its natural history since 1976, but the exact conditions that lead to the emergence of a pandemic strain are still unknown. Current avian influenza events parallel those of swine influenza in 1976 but on a larger and more complex scale. Pre- and post-pandemic risk assessment and risk management are continuous but separate public health functions.

Isolation of pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus from UK water and shellfish produce.

PubMed

Powell, Andy; Baker-Austin, Craig; Wagley, Sariqa; Bayley, Amanda; Hartnell, Rachel

2013-05-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a Gram-negative, halophilic bacterium found commonly in temperate and warm estuarine waters worldwide. V. parahaemolyticus is considered an emerging bacterial pathogen in Europe and has been responsible for several recent seafood-associated outbreaks. During ad hoc testing of raw shellfish produce in May 2012, pandemic group (O3:K6) V. parahaemolyticus was isolated from Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas), harvested in Southern England. Follow-on testing of water and shellfish, encompassing a small number geographically diverse sites, also retrieved pandemic group isolates. These strains are amongst the most northerly pandemic strains described to date and represent the first instance of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus isolated in the UK, highlighting the expanding geographical distribution of these foodborne pathogens in the environment.

75 FR 75363 - Absence and Leave; Sick Leave

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

... diseases, including pandemic influenza when appropriate. We are also permitting employees to substitute up..., including pandemic influenza when appropriate, by permitting the use of sick leave and advanced sick leave... and procedures developed in planning for a pandemic influenza and provided references to a substantial...

The limitations of point of care testing for pandemic influenza: what clinicians and public health professionals need to know.

PubMed

Hatchette, Todd F; Bastien, Nathalie; Berry, Jody; Booth, Tim F; Chernesky, Max; Couillard, Michel; Drews, Steven; Ebsworth, Anthony; Fearon, Margaret; Fonseca, Kevin; Fox, Julie; Gagnon, Jean-Nicolas; Guercio, Steven; Horsman, Greg; Jorowski, Cathy; Kuschak, Theodore; Li, Yan; Majury, Anna; Petric, Martin; Ratnam, Sam; Smieja, Marek; Van Caeseele, Paul

2009-01-01

As the world prepares for the next influenza pandemic, governments have made significant funding commitments to vaccine development and antiviral stockpiling. While these are essential components to pandemic response, rapid and accurate diagnostic testing remains an often neglected cornerstone of pandemic influenza preparedness. Clinicians and Public Health Practitioners need to understand the benefits and drawbacks of different influenza tests in both seasonal and pandemic settings. Culture has been the traditional gold standard for influenza diagnosis but requires from 1-10 days to generate a positive result, compared to nucleic acid detection methods such as real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Although the currently available rapid antigen detection kits can generate results in less than 30 minutes, their sensitivity is suboptimal and they are not recommended for the detection of novel influenza viruses. Until point-of-care (POC) tests are improved, PILPN recommends that the best option for pandemic influenza preparation is the enhancement of nucleic acid-based testing capabilities across Canada.

Pandemic Influenza and Community Preparedness

PubMed Central

Ryan, Philip; Roberton, Don; Street, Jackie; Watson, Maureen

2009-01-01

Objectives. We aimed to examine community knowledge about and attitudes toward the threat of pandemic influenza and assess the community acceptability of strategies to reduce its effect. Methods. We conducted computer-aided telephone interviews in 2007 with a cross-sectional sample of rural and metropolitan residents of South Australia. Results. Of 1975 households interviewed, half (50.2%) had never heard of pandemic influenza or were unaware of its meaning. Only 10% of respondents were extremely concerned about the threat of pandemic influenza. Respondents identified children as the highest priority for vaccination, if supplies were limited; they ranked politicians and teachers as the lowest priority. Although only 61.7% of respondents agreed with a policy of home isolation, 98.2% agreed if it was part of a national strategy. Respondents considered television to be the best means of educating the community. Conclusions. Community knowledge about pandemic influenza is poor despite widespread concern. Public education about pandemic influenza is essential if strategies to reduce the impact of the disease are to be effective. PMID:19797751

Planning and response to the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic: ethics, equity and justice.

PubMed

Devnani, Mahesh; Gupta, Anil Kumar; Devnani, Bharti

2011-01-01

This paper aims to highlight three ethical considerations related to influenza pandemic planning and response: ethical allocation of scarce resources; obligations and duties of healthcare workers to treat patients, and the balance between conflicting individual and community interests. Among these, perhaps the most challenging question facing bioethics is how to allocate scarce, life-saving resources given the devastating social and economic ramifications of a pandemic. In such situations, the identification of clear overall goals for pandemic planning is essential in making difficult choices. The dilemma between the duty to save patients and the right to protect the healthcare personnel's own life and health is a key issue. During the course of a pandemic, civil liberties may also be threatened, requiring limits on individual freedom to protect individuals as well as entire communities. Yet, individual liberty should be restricted with great care, and only when alternative approaches are not effective. Pandemic influenza planning and response should be a cooperative and shared responsibility that balances community and individual interests.

A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks

PubMed Central

Timpka, Toomas; Eriksson, Henrik; Strömgren, Magnus; Eriksson, Olle; Ekberg, Joakim; Grimvall, Anders; Nyce, James; Gursky, Elin; Holm, Einar

2010-01-01

The global spread of a novel A (H1N1) influenza virus in 2009 has highlighted the possibility of a devastating pandemic similar to the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1917–1918. Responding to such pandemics requires careful planning for the early phases where there is no availability of pandemic vaccine. We set out to compute a Neighborhood Influenza Susceptibility Index (NISI) describing the vulnerability of local communities of different geo-socio-physical structure to a pandemic influenza outbreak. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model of Linköping municipality (pop. 136,240) in Sweden, and employed an ontology-modeling tool to define simulation models and transmission settings. We found considerable differences in NISI between neighborhoods corresponding to primary care areas with regard to early progress of the outbreak, as well as in terms of the total accumulated share of infected residents counted after the outbreak. The NISI can be used in local preparations of physical response measures during pandemics. PMID:21347087

Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

2011-12-01

Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

Pandemic influenza preparedness and response in Israel: a unique model of civilian-defense collaboration.

PubMed

Kohn, Sivan; Barnett, Daniel J; Leventhal, Alex; Reznikovich, Shmuel; Oren, Meir; Laor, Danny; Grotto, Itamar; Balicer, Ran D

2010-07-01

In April 2009, the World Health Organization announced the emergence of a novel influenza A(H1N1-09) virus and in June 2009 declared the outbreak a pandemic. The value of military structures in responding to pandemic influenza has become widely acknowledged in recent years. In 2005, the Israeli Government appointed the Ministry of Defense to be in charge of national preparedness and response for a severe pandemic influenza scenario. The Israeli case offers a unique example of civilian-defense partnership where the interface between the governmental, military and civilian spheres has formed a distinctive structure. The Israeli pandemic preparedness protocols represent an example of a collaboration in which aspects of an inherently medical problem can be managed by the defense sector. Although distinctive concepts of the model are not applicable to all countries, it offers a unique forum for governments and international agencies to evaluate this interface within the context of pandemic influenza.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.

Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combatmore » the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.« less

Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making

PubMed Central

Thompson, Alison K; Faith, Karen; Gibson, Jennifer L; Upshur, Ross EG

2006-01-01

Background Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. Discussion In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. Summary The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust. PMID:17144926

Comparison of Patients Hospitalized With Pandemic 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection During the First Two Pandemic Waves in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Truelove, Shaun A.; Chitnis, Amit S.; Heffernan, Richard T.; Karon, Amy E.; Haupt, Thomas E.

2011-01-01

Background. Wisconsin was severely affected by pandemic waves of 2009 influenza A H1N1 infection during the period 15 April through 30 August 2009 (wave 1) and 31 August 2009 through 2 January 2010 (wave 2). Methods. To evaluate differences in epidemiologic features and outcomes during these pandemic waves, we examined prospective surveillance data on Wisconsin residents who were hospitalized ≥24 h with or died of pandemic H1N1 infection. Results. Rates of hospitalizations and deaths from pandemic H1N1 infection in Wisconsin increased 4- and 5-fold, respectively, from wave 1 to wave 2; outside Milwaukee, hospitalization and death rates increased 10- and 8-fold, respectively. Hospitalization rates were highest among racial and ethnic minorities and children during wave 1 and increased most during wave 2 among non-Hispanic whites and adults. Times to hospital admission and antiviral treatment improved between waves, but the overall hospital course remained similar, with no change in hospitalization duration, intensive care unit admission, requirement for mechanical ventilation, or mortality. Conclusions. We report broader geographic spread and marked demographic differences during pandemic wave 2, compared with wave 1, although clinical outcomes were similar. Our findings emphasize the importance of using comprehensive surveillance data to detect changing characteristics and impacts during an influenza pandemic and of vigorously promoting influenza vaccination and other prevention efforts. PMID:21278213

Pandemic Planning Guide for Alberta School Authorities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alberta Education, 2008

2008-01-01

A crisis always seems like something that happens somewhere else - that is, until it arrives on your doorstep. Although other issues and challenges scream for your attention, School Authorities should not postpone developing an influenza pandemic plan. The "Pandemic Planning Guide for Alberta School Authorities" (the "Guide")…

76 FR 37124 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-24

... Dietary Supplements During an Influenza Pandemic; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS... Postmarketing Adverse Event Reporting for Medical Products and Dietary Supplements During an Influenza Pandemic... Reporting for Medical Products and Dietary Supplements During an Influenza Pandemic; Availability--(OMB...

77 FR 6625 - Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and Health Care...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-08

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for... its National Center for Ethics in Health Care (NCEHC) invites interested parties to comment on a guidance document entitled ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... health crisis. 550.409 Section 550.409 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

[Swine-origin influenza H1N1/California--passions and facts].

PubMed

Gendon, Iu Z

2010-01-01

Analysis of pandemic caused by swine influenza virus H1N1/California showed moderate virulence of this virus compared to pandemic viruses, which caused pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. During seasonal influenza epidemic in countries of southern hemisphere (June-August 2009) despite on circulation of H1N1/California strain, epidemics was caused by human influenza viruses H3N2 and H1N1. It was concluded that strain H1N1/California could not be attributed to pandemic strains of influenza viruses.

Evolutionary pattern of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 virus in the late phases of the 2009 pandemic.

PubMed Central

Valli, Maria Beatrice; Meschi, Silvia; Selleri, Marina; Zaccaro, Paola; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; Menzo, Stefano

2010-01-01

Influenza A( H1N1)v has spread rapidly in all parts of the globe in 2009 as a true pandemic, although fortunately a clinically mild one. The relevant evolutionary steps for the new virus to adapt to human populations occurred very early during the pandemic, before the end of April. Of the several resulting clades or clusters, clade 7 appeared later and proved more successful, substituting all other early clades before the bulk of the worldwide infections occurred. PMID:20228856

Willingness of university nursing students to volunteer during a pandemic.

PubMed

Yonge, Olive; Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Bailey, Tracey M; Lake, Rob; Marrie, Thomas J

2010-01-01

The global threat of an influenza pandemic continues to grow and thus universities have begun emergency preparedness planning. This study examined stakeholder's knowledge, risk-perception, and willingness to volunteer. The design of this study is a cross-sectional survey. Questionnaires were sent to 1,512 nursing students and were returned by 484, yielding a response rate of 32% for this subgroup. Nursing students may be a much-needed human resource in the event of an influenza pandemic. The measurement tool was a Web-based questionnaire regarding pandemic influenza designed by a subgroup of researchers on the Public Health Response Committee. Most nursing students (67.9%) said they were likely to volunteer in the event of a pandemic if they were able to do so. An even higher number (77.4%) said they would volunteer if provided protective garments. Overall, 70.7% of students supported the proposition that nursing students have a professional obligation to volunteer during a pandemic. Nursing students indicated that they have had a wealth of volunteer experience in the past and they would apply this service ethic to a pandemic situation. Emergency preparedness competencies should be integrated into existing nursing curricula and other health science programs. University administrations need to engage in planning to create protocol for recruitment, practice, and protection of volunteers.

A cross-sectional study of pandemic influenza health literacy and the effect of a public health campaign

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background To ascertain the understanding of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza and relevant infection control measures in an emergency department population and to assess the effectiveness of education campaigns in informing the public about the pandemic. Methods Questionnaires were administered to patients, visitors, non-clinical staff and volunteers. Data were collected on knowledge, preventative measures, information sources, attitudes to government and media reporting, perceived seriousness, behaviour change and intended compliance with future measures. Results were used to construct an overall knowledge score. Results There were 252 participants. Traditional forms of mass media (138 [55%]) remained the principal information source. Approximately 70% (176) accurately described mode of transmission and recommended precautions and 68% (175) reported behaviour change because of the pandemic. Gaps in knowledge included failure to identify certain high risk groups. Recall of government campaigns was significantly associated with a higher knowledge score. 60% (151) thought that authorities and media had exaggerated the threat; only 40% (101) would comply with recommended measures in a future pandemic. Conclusions The knowledge regarding pandemic influenza was high in this population and positively affected by official campaigns. Pandemic planning should address knowledge gaps and the impression that authorities had exaggerated the public-health threat. PMID:22830499

Enhanced risk of illness during the 1918 influenza pandemic after previous influenza-like illnesses in three military populations.

PubMed

Shanks, G D; Burroughs, S A; Sohn, J D; Waters, N C; Smith, V F; Waller, M; Brundage, J F

2016-07-01

The reasons for the unprecedented mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic remain poorly understood. We examined morbidity records from three military cohorts from years prior to and during the 1918 pandemic period to assess the effects of previous respiratory illnesses on experiences during the pandemic. Clinical registers and morbidity lists were examined to identify all medical encounters for acute respiratory illnesses in students at two U.S. military officer training academies and Australian soldiers deployed in Europe. Influenza-like illness prior to the major pandemic wave of 1918 predisposed Australian soldiers [relative risk (RR) 1·37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·18-1·60, P < 0·0001] and US officer trainees at West Point (RR 3·10, 95% CI 2·13-4·52, P < 0·0001) and Annapolis (RR 2·03, 95% CI 1·65-2·50, P < 0·0001) to increased risks of medically treated illnesses in late 1918. The findings suggest that susceptibility to and/or clinical expressions of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus depended on previous experiences with respiratory infectious agents. The findings are consistent with observations during the 2009 pandemic in Canada and may reflect antibody-dependent enhancement of influenza infection.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

PubMed

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7-18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1-1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

Factors associated with preparedness of the US healthcare system to respond to a pediatric surge during an infectious disease pandemic: Is our nation prepared?

PubMed

Anthony, Christy; Thomas, Tito Joe; Berg, Bridget M; Burke, Rita V; Upperman, Jeffrey S

2017-01-01

Recent incidents have demonstrated that the US health system is unprepared for infectious pandemics resulting in a pediatric surge. Development of efficient plans and a structured and coordinated regional response to pediatric pandemic surge remains an opportunity. To address this gap, we conducted a literature review to assess current efforts, propose a response plan structure, and recommend policy actions. A literature review, utilizing MEDLINE and PubMed, through March 2017 identified articles regarding infectious disease pandemics affecting the US pediatric population. After review of current literature, a proposed response plan structure for a pediatric pandemic surge was designed. Inclusion and exclusion criteria reduced an initial screening of 1,787 articles to 162 articles. Articles ranged in their discussion of pediatric pandemic surge. Review of the articles led to the proposal of organizing the results according to 4 S's; (1) Structure, (2) Staff, (3) Stuff (Resources), and (4) Space. The review has supported the concern that the US health system is unprepared for a pediatric surge induced by infectious disease pandemics. Common themes suggest that response plans should reflect the 4Ss and national guidelines must be translated into regional response systems that account for local nuances.

Prioritization of influenza pandemic vaccination to minimize years of life lost.

PubMed

Miller, Mark A; Viboud, Cecile; Olson, Donald R; Grais, Rebecca F; Rabaa, Maia A; Simonsen, Lone

2008-08-01

How to allocate limited vaccine supplies in the event of an influenza pandemic is currently under debate. Conventional vaccination strategies focus on those at highest risk for severe outcomes, including seniors, but do not consider (1) the signature pandemic pattern in which mortality risk is shifted to younger ages, (2) likely reduced vaccine response in seniors, and (3) differences in remaining years of life with age. We integrated these factors to project the age-specific years of life lost (YLL) and saved in a future pandemic, on the basis of mortality patterns from 3 historical pandemics, age-specific vaccine efficacy, and the 2000 US population structure. For a 1918-like scenario, the absolute mortality risk is highest in people <45 years old; in contrast, seniors (those >or=65 years old) have the highest mortality risk in the 1957 and 1968 scenarios. The greatest YLL savings would be achieved by targeting different age groups in each scenario; people <45 years old in the 1918 scenario, people 45-64 years old in the 1968 scenario, and people >45 years old in the 1957 scenario. Our findings shift the focus of pandemic vaccination strategies onto younger populations and illustrate the need for real-time surveillance of mortality patterns in a future pandemic. Flexible setting of vaccination priority is essential to minimize mortality.

Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 infection in Victoria, Australia: no evidence for harm or benefit following receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in 2009.

PubMed

Kelly, Heath A; Grant, Kristina A; Fielding, James E; Carville, Kylie S; Looker, Clare O; Tran, Thomas; Jacoby, Peter

2011-08-26

Conflicting findings regarding the level of protection offered by seasonal influenza vaccination against pandemic influenza H1N1 have been reported. We performed a test-negative case control study using sentinel patients from general practices in Victoria to estimate seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory proven infection with pandemic influenza. Cases were defined as patients with an influenza-like illness who tested positive for influenza while controls had an influenza-like illness but tested negative. We found no evidence of significant protection from seasonal vaccine against pandemic influenza virus infection in any age group. Age-stratified point estimates, adjusted for pandemic phase, ranged from 44% in persons aged less than 5 years to -103% (odds ratio=2.03) in persons aged 50-64 years. Vaccine effectiveness, adjusted for age group and pandemic phase, was 3% (95% CI -48 to 37) for all patients. Our study confirms the results from our previous interim report, and other studies, that failed to demonstrate benefit or harm from receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in patients with confirmed infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological and economic impact of pandemic influenza in Chicago: Priorities for vaccine interventions

PubMed Central

Dorratoltaj, Nargesalsadat; Marathe, Achla; Swarup, Samarth; Eubank, Stephen G.

2017-01-01

The study objective is to estimate the epidemiological and economic impact of vaccine interventions during influenza pandemics in Chicago, and assist in vaccine intervention priorities. Scenarios of delay in vaccine introduction with limited vaccine efficacy and limited supplies are not unlikely in future influenza pandemics, as in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. We simulated influenza pandemics in Chicago using agent-based transmission dynamic modeling. Population was distributed among high-risk and non-high risk among 0–19, 20–64 and 65+ years subpopulations. Different attack rate scenarios for catastrophic (30.15%), strong (21.96%), and moderate (11.73%) influenza pandemics were compared against vaccine intervention scenarios, at 40% coverage, 40% efficacy, and unit cost of $28.62. Sensitivity analysis for vaccine compliance, vaccine efficacy and vaccine start date was also conducted. Vaccine prioritization criteria include risk of death, total deaths, net benefits, and return on investment. The risk of death is the highest among the high-risk 65+ years subpopulation in the catastrophic influenza pandemic, and highest among the high-risk 0–19 years subpopulation in the strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The proportion of total deaths and net benefits are the highest among the high-risk 20–64 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. The return on investment is the highest in the high-risk 0–19 years subpopulation in the catastrophic, strong and moderate influenza pandemics. Based on risk of death and return on investment, high-risk groups of the three age group subpopulations can be prioritized for vaccination, and the vaccine interventions are cost saving for all age and risk groups. The attack rates among the children are higher than among the adults and seniors in the catastrophic, strong, and moderate influenza pandemic scenarios, due to their larger social contact network and homophilous interactions in school. Based on return on investment and higher attack rates among children, we recommend prioritizing children (0–19 years) and seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. Based on risk of death, we recommend prioritizing seniors (65+ years) after high-risk groups for influenza vaccination during times of limited vaccine supplies. PMID:28570660

Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

PubMed

Torun, Sebahat D; Torun, Fuat; Catak, Binali

2010-10-10

Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105) reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1%) of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic influenza vaccination is necessary. Efforts for orienting the HCWs to use evidence based scientific sources, rather than the media for information should be considered by the authorities.

Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. Results A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105) reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1%) of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Conclusions Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic influenza vaccination is necessary. Efforts for orienting the HCWs to use evidence based scientific sources, rather than the media for information should be considered by the authorities. PMID:20932342

Comparing the regional epidemiology of the cassava mosaic and cassava brown streak virus pandemics in Africa.

PubMed

Legg, J P; Jeremiah, S C; Obiero, H M; Maruthi, M N; Ndyetabula, I; Okao-Okuja, G; Bouwmeester, H; Bigirimana, S; Tata-Hangy, W; Gashaka, G; Mkamilo, G; Alicai, T; Lava Kumar, P

2011-08-01

The rapid geographical expansion of the cassava mosaic disease (CMD) pandemic, caused by cassava mosaic geminiviruses, has devastated cassava crops in 12 countries of East and Central Africa since the late 1980s. Region-level surveys have revealed a continuing pattern of annual spread westward and southward along a contiguous 'front'. More recently, outbreaks of cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) were reported from Uganda and other parts of East Africa that had been hitherto unaffected by the disease. Recent survey data reveal several significant contrasts between the regional epidemiology of these two pandemics: (i) severe CMD radiates out from an initial centre of origin, whilst CBSD seems to be spreading from independent 'hot-spots'; (ii) the severe CMD pandemic has arisen from recombination and synergy between virus species, whilst the CBSD pandemic seems to be a 'new encounter' situation between host and pathogen; (iii) CMD pandemic spread has been tightly linked with the appearance of super-abundant Bemisia tabaci whitefly vector populations, in contrast to CBSD, where outbreaks have occurred 3-12 years after whitefly population increases; (iv) the CMGs causing CMD are transmitted in a persistent manner, whilst the two cassava brown streak viruses appear to be semi-persistently transmitted; and (v) different patterns of symptom expression mean that phytosanitary measures could be implemented easily for CMD but have limited effectiveness, whereas similar measures are difficult to apply for CBSD but are potentially very effective. An important similarity between the pandemics is that the viruses occurring in pandemic-affected areas are also found elsewhere, indicating that contrary to earlier published conclusions, the viruses per se are unlikely to be the key factors driving the two pandemics. A diagrammatic representation illustrates the temporal relationship between B. tabaci abundance and changing incidences of both CMD and CBSD in the Great Lakes region. This emphasizes the pivotal role played by the vector in both pandemics and the urgent need to identify effective and sustainable strategies for controlling whiteflies on cassava. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continual Reintroduction of Human Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Viruses into Swine in the United States, 2009 to 2014

PubMed Central

Stratton, Jered; Killian, Mary Lea; Janas-Martindale, Alicia; Vincent, Amy L.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT The diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) presents an important pandemic threat. Knowledge of the human-swine interface is particularly important for understanding how viruses with pandemic potential evolve in swine hosts. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the United States, we demonstrate that human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) viruses has occurred continuously in the years following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and has been an important contributor to the genetic diversity of U.S. swIAVs. Although pandemic H1 and N1 segments had been largely removed from the U.S. swine population by 2013 via reassortment with other swIAVs, these antigens reemerged following multiple human-to-swine transmission events during the 2013-2014 seasonal epidemic. These findings indicate that the six internal gene segments from pH1N1 viruses are likely to be sustained long term in the U.S. swine population, with periodic reemergence of pandemic hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) segments in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. Vaccinating U.S. swine workers may reduce infection of both humans and swine and in turn limit the role of humans as sources of influenza virus diversity in pigs. IMPORTANCE Swine are important hosts in the evolution of influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we analyze influenza virus sequence data generated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's national surveillance system to identify the central role of humans in the reemergence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza viruses in U.S. swine herds in 2014. These findings emphasize the important role of humans as continuous sources of influenza virus diversity in swine and indicate that influenza viruses with pandemic HA and NA segments are likely to continue to reemerge in U.S. swine in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. PMID:25833052

Continual Reintroduction of Human Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Viruses into Swine in the United States, 2009 to 2014.

PubMed

Nelson, Martha I; Stratton, Jered; Killian, Mary Lea; Janas-Martindale, Alicia; Vincent, Amy L

2015-06-01

The diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) presents an important pandemic threat. Knowledge of the human-swine interface is particularly important for understanding how viruses with pandemic potential evolve in swine hosts. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the United States, we demonstrate that human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) viruses has occurred continuously in the years following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and has been an important contributor to the genetic diversity of U.S. swIAVs. Although pandemic H1 and N1 segments had been largely removed from the U.S. swine population by 2013 via reassortment with other swIAVs, these antigens reemerged following multiple human-to-swine transmission events during the 2013-2014 seasonal epidemic. These findings indicate that the six internal gene segments from pH1N1 viruses are likely to be sustained long term in the U.S. swine population, with periodic reemergence of pandemic hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) segments in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. Vaccinating U.S. swine workers may reduce infection of both humans and swine and in turn limit the role of humans as sources of influenza virus diversity in pigs. Swine are important hosts in the evolution of influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we analyze influenza virus sequence data generated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's national surveillance system to identify the central role of humans in the reemergence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza viruses in U.S. swine herds in 2014. These findings emphasize the important role of humans as continuous sources of influenza virus diversity in swine and indicate that influenza viruses with pandemic HA and NA segments are likely to continue to reemerge in U.S. swine in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Swine influenza and vaccines: an alternative approach for decision making about pandemic prevention.

PubMed

Basili, Marcello; Ferrini, Silvia; Montomoli, Emanuele

2013-08-01

During the global pandemic of A/H1N1/California/07/2009 (A/H1N1/Cal) influenza, many governments signed contracts with vaccine producers for a universal influenza immunization program and bought hundreds of millions of vaccines doses. We argue that, as Health Ministers assumed the occurrence of the worst possible scenario (generalized pandemic influenza) and followed the strong version of the Precautionary Principle, they undervalued the possibility of mild or weak pandemic wave. An alternative decision rule, based on the non-extensive entropy principle, is introduced, and a different Precautionary Principle characterization is applied. This approach values extreme negative results (catastrophic events) in a different way and predicts more plausible and mild events. It introduces less pessimistic forecasts in the case of uncertain influenza pandemic outbreaks. A simplified application is presented using seasonal data of morbidity and severity among Italian children influenza-like illness for the period 2003-10. Established literature results predict an average attack rate of not less than 15% for the next pandemic influenza [Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: implications for setting priorities for interventions. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5:659-71; Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Implications for Setting Priorities for Intervention. Background paper. Atlanta, GA: CDC, 1999. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm (7 January 2011, date last accessed))]. The strong version of the Precautionary Principle would suggest using this prediction for vaccination campaigns. On the contrary, the non-extensive maximum entropy principle predicts a lower attack rate, which induces a 20% saving in public funding for vaccines doses. The need for an effective influenza pandemic prevention program, coupled with an efficient use of public funding, calls for a rethinking of the Precautionary Principle. The non-extensive maximum entropy principle, which incorporates vague and incomplete information available to decision makers, produces a more coherent forecast of possible influenza pandemic and a conservative spending in public funding.

Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet.

PubMed

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Shanks, G Dennis; Almeida, Francisco E A; Alonso, Wladimir J

2013-01-01

The naval experience with the 1918 pandemic during World War I remains underexplored despite its key role on the pandemic's global diffusion and the epidemiological interest of isolated and relatively homogeneous populations. The pandemic outbreak in the Brazilian naval fleet is of particular interest both because of its severity and the fact that it was the only Latin American military force deployed to war. To study the mortality patterns of the pandemic in the Brazilian fleet sent to patrol the West African coast in 1918. We investigated mortality across vessels, ranks, and occupations based on official population and mortality records from the Brazilian Navy Archives. The outbreak that swept this fleet included the highest influenza mortality rate on any naval ship reported to date. Nearly 10% of the crews died, with death rates reaching 13-14% on two destroyers. While overall mortality was lower for officers, stokers and engineer officers were significantly more likely to die from the pandemic, possibly due to the pulmonary damage from constant exposure to the smoke and coal dust from the boilers. The fatality patterns observed provide valuable data on the conditions that can exacerbate the impact of a pandemic. While the putative lack of exposure to a first pandemic wave may have played a role in the excessive mortality observed in this fleet, our results indicate that strenuous labor conditions, dehydration, and exposure to coal dust were major risk factors. The unequal death rates among vessels remain an open question. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The evolving threat of influenza viruses of animal origin and the challenges in developing appropriate diagnostics.

PubMed

Mak, Polly W Y; Jayawardena, Shanthi; Poon, Leo L M

2012-11-01

An H1N1 subtype of swine origin caused the first influenza pandemic in this century. This pandemic strain was a reassortant of avian, swine, and human influenza viruses. Many diagnostic laboratories were overwhelmed by the testing demands related to this pandemic. Nevertheless, there remains the threat of other animal influenza viruses, such as highly pathogenic H5N1. As a part of pandemic preparedness, it is essential to identify the diagnostic challenges that will accompany the next pandemic. We discuss the natural reservoir of influenza viruses and the possible role of livestock in the emergence of pandemic strains. The current commonly used molecular tests for influenza diagnosis or surveillance are also briefly reviewed. Some of these approaches are also used to detect animal viruses. Unfortunately, owing to a lack of systematic surveillance of animal influenza viruses, established tests may not be able to detect pandemic strains that have yet to emerge from the animal reservoir. Thus, multiple strategies need to be developed for better identification of influenza viruses. In addition, molecular assays for detection of mutations associated with antiviral resistance and for viral segment reassortments should also be encouraged. Influenza viruses are highly dynamic viruses. Regular and systematic influenza surveillance in both humans and animals is essential to provide a more comprehensive picture of the prevalent influenza viruses. To better prepare for the next pandemic, we should develop some simple and easy-to-use tests for characterizing newly emerging influenza viruses. © 2012 American Association for Clinical Chemistry

Isolation of a High Affinity Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody against 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Virus That Binds at the ‘Sa’ Antigenic Site

PubMed Central

Mishra, Arpita; Yeolekar, Leena; Dhere, Rajeev; Kapre, Subhash; Varadarajan, Raghavan; Gupta, Satish Kumar

2013-01-01

Influenza virus evades host immunity through antigenic drift and shift, and continues to circulate in the human population causing periodic outbreaks including the recent 2009 pandemic. A large segment of the population was potentially susceptible to this novel strain of virus. Historically, monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) have been fundamental tools for diagnosis and epitope mapping of influenza viruses and their importance as an alternate treatment option is also being realized. The current study describes isolation of a high affinity (K D = 2.1±0.4 pM) murine MAb, MA2077 that binds specifically to the hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein of the pandemic virus. The antibody neutralized the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus in an in vitro microneutralization assay (IC50 = 0.08 µg/ml). MA2077 also showed hemagglutination inhibition activity (HI titre of 0.50 µg/ml) against the pandemic virus. In a competition ELISA, MA2077 competed with the binding site of the human MAb, 2D1 (isolated from a survivor of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic) on pandemic H1N1 HA. Epitope mapping studies using yeast cell-surface display of a stable HA1 fragment, wherein ‘Sa’ and ‘Sb’ sites were independently mutated, localized the binding site of MA2077 within the ‘Sa’ antigenic site. These studies will facilitate our understanding of antigen antibody interaction in the context of neutralization of the pandemic influenza virus. PMID:23383214

Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

Shanks, G. Dennis; Hussell, Tracy; Brundage, John F.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Shanks et al. (2012) Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(6), 417–423. Background  During the 1918 pandemic period, influenza‐related mortality increased worldwide; however, mortality rates varied widely across locations and demographic subgroups. Islands are isolated epidemiological situations that may elucidate why influenza pandemic mortality rates were so variable in apparently similar populations. Objectives  Our objectives were to determine and compare the patterns of pandemic influenza mortality on islands. Methods  We reviewed historical records of mortality associated with the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in various military and civilian groups on islands. Results and Conclusions  Mortality differed more than 50‐fold during pandemic‐related epidemics on Pacific islands [range: 0·4% (Hawaii) to 22% (Samoa)], and on some islands, mortality sharply varied among demographic subgroups of island residents such as Saipan: Chamorros [12%] and Caroline Islanders [0·4%]. Among soldiers from island populations who had completed initial military training, influenza‐related mortality rates were generally low, for example, Puerto Rico (0·7%) and French Polynesia (0·13%). The findings suggest that among island residents, those who had been exposed to multiple, antigenically diverse respiratory pathogens prior to infection with the 1918 pandemic strain (e.g., less isolated) experienced lower mortality. The continuous circulation of antigenically diverse influenza viruses and other respiratory infectious agents makes widespread high mortality during future influenza pandemics unlikely. PMID:22226378

Hospital Employee Willingness to Work during Earthquakes Versus Pandemics.

PubMed

Charney, Rachel L; Rebmann, Terri; Flood, Robert G

2015-11-01

Research indicates that licensed health care workers are less willing to work during a pandemic and that the willingness of nonlicensed staff to work has had limited assessment. We sought to assess and compare the willingness to work in all hospital workers during pandemics and earthquakes. An online survey was distributed to Missouri hospital employees. Participants were presented with 2 disaster scenarios (pandemic influenza and earthquake); willingness, ability, and barriers to work were measured. T tests compared willingness to work during a pandemic vs. an earthquake. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to describe factors associated with a higher willingness to work. One thousand eight hundred twenty-two employees participated (15% response rate). More willingness to work was reported for an earthquake than a pandemic (93.3% vs. 84.8%; t = 17.1; p < 0.001). Significantly fewer respondents reported the ability to work during a pandemic (83.5%; t = 17.1; p < 0.001) or an earthquake (89.8%; t = 13.3; p < 0.001) compared to their willingness to work. From multivariate linear regression, factors associated with pandemic willingness to work were as follows: 1) no children ≤3 years of age; 2) older children; 3) working full-time; 4) less concern for family; 5) less fear of job loss; and 6) vaccine availability. Earthquake willingness factors included: 1) not having children with special needs and 2) not working a different role. Improving care for dependent family members, worker protection, cross training, and job importance education may increase willingness to work during disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resilience Training for Hospital Workers in Anticipation of an Influenza Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aiello, Andria; Khayeri, Michelle Young-Eun; Raja, Shreyshree; Peladeau, Nathalie; Romano, Donna; Leszcz, Molyn; Maunder, Robert G.; Rose, Marci; Adam, Mary Anne; Pain, Clare; Moore, Andrea; Savage, Diane; Schulman, Rabbi Bernard

2011-01-01

Background: Well before the H1N1 influenza, health care organizations worldwide prepared for a pandemic of unpredictable impact. Planners anticipated the possibility of a pandemic involving high mortality, high health care demands, rates of absenteeism rising up to 20-30% among health care workers, rationing of health care, and extraordinary…

Managing a Bird Flu Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Del

2006-01-01

Concern about a possible bird flu pandemic has grown in the medical community with the spread of the avian flu virus around the globe. Health officials say there is no immediate threat but add that an influenza pandemic occurs every 30 to 40 years, and prudence demands planning now. That planning will increasingly involve local school officials,…

Preparing for influenza after 2009 H1N1: special considerations for pregnant women and newborns.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Sonja A; Kissin, Dmitry M; Yeung, Lorraine F; MacFarlane, Kitty; Chu, Susan Y; Turcios-Ruiz, Reina M; Mitchell, Elizabeth W; Williams, Jennifer; Fry, Alicia M; Hageman, Jeffrey; Uyeki, Timothy M; Jamieson, Denise J

2011-06-01

Pregnant women and their newborn infants are at increased risk for influenza-associated complications, based on data from seasonal influenza and influenza pandemics. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed public health recommendations for these populations in response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. A review of these recommendations and information that was collected during the pandemic is needed to prepare for future influenza seasons and pandemics. The CDC convened a meeting entitled "Pandemic Influenza Revisited: Special Considerations for Pregnant Women and Newborns" on August 12-13, 2010, to gain input from experts and key partners on 4 main topics: antiviral prophylaxis and therapy, vaccine use, intrapartum/newborn (including infection control) issues, and nonpharmaceutical interventions and health care planning. Challenges to communicating recommendations regarding influenza to pregnant women and their health care providers were also discussed. After careful consideration of the available information and individual expert input, the CDC updated its recommendations for these populations for future influenza seasons and pandemics. Published by Mosby, Inc.

Infection control measures on ships and in ports during the early stage of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Schlaich, Clara; Gau, Bettina; Cohen, Nicole J; Kojima, Kazunobu; Marano, Nina; Menucci, Daniel

2012-01-01

Shipping companies were surveyed to evaluate the effect of public health measures during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic of 2009 on ship and port operations. Of 31 companies that operated 960 cruise, cargo, and other ships, 32% experienced health-screening measures by port health authorities. Approximately a quarter of ports (26%) performed screening at embarkation and 77% of shipping companies changed procedures during the early stage of the pandemic. Four companies reported outbreaks of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 on ships, which were ultimately stopped through infection control practices. Public health measures did not interfere substantially with port and ship operations with the exception of some port authorities that delayed embarking and disembarking procedures in a few ships. However, in the shipping companies' experience, measures were inconsistent between port health authorities. Access to antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccine was not provided in all ports. Current guidelines on medical care, hygiene, and emergency procedures on ships need to address pandemic influenza preparedness in future revisions.

Public health intelligence and the detection of potential pandemics.

PubMed

French, Martin; Mykhalovskiy, Eric

2013-02-01

This article considers contemporary developments in public health intelligence (PHI), especially their focus on health events of pandemic potential. It argues that the sociological study of PHI can yield important insights for the sociology of pandemics. PHI aims to detect health events as (or even before) they unfold. Whilst its apparatuses envelope traditional public health activities, such as epidemiological surveillance, they increasingly extend to non-traditional public health activities such as data-mining in electronically mediated social networks. With a focus on non-traditional PHI activities, the article first situates the study of PHI in relation to the sociology of public health. It then discusses the conceptualisation and actualisation of pandemics, reflecting on how public health professionals and organisations must equip themselves with diverse allies in order to realise the claims they make about pandemic phenomena. Finally, using the analytic tools of actor-network theory, sites for future empirical research that can contribute to the sociology of pandemics are suggested. © 2012 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2012 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico

PubMed Central

Mena, Ignacio; Nelson, Martha I; Quezada-Monroy, Francisco; Dutta, Jayeeta; Cortes-Fernández, Refugio; Lara-Puente, J Horacio; Castro-Peralta, Felipa; Cunha, Luis F; Trovão, Nídia S; Lozano-Dubernard, Bernardo; Rambaut, Andrew; van Bakel, Harm; García-Sastre, Adolfo

2016-01-01

Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.001 PMID:27350259

Similarity of currently circulating H1N1 virus with the 2009 pandemic clone: viability of an imminent pandemic.

PubMed

Banerjee, Rachana; Roy, Ayan; Das, Santasabuj; Basak, Surajit

2015-06-01

The first influenza pandemic in the 21st century commenced in March, 2009 causing nearly 300,000 deaths globally within the first year of the pandemic. In late 2013 and in early 2014, there was gradual increase in the reported case of H1N1 infection and according to World Health Organization (WHO) report, influenza activity increased in several areas of the Southern Hemisphere and was dominated by the H1N1 pandemic strain of 2009. In the present study, a comprehensive comparison of the global amino acid composition and the structural features of all HA gene sequences of H1N1, available in the Flu Database (NCBI), from 1918 to December, 2014 has been performed to trace out the possibility of a further H1N1 pandemic in near future. The results suggest that the increased potential to enhance pathogenicity for the H1N1 samples of 2013 (latter part) and 2014 could lead to a more severe outbreak in the near future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccination in children: a UK perspective.

PubMed

de Whalley, Philip C S; Pollard, Andrew J

2013-03-01

Pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was common in the UK in 2009 and children were particularly vulnerable. Most cases were mild or subclinical, but there was significant mortality, predominantly in those with pre-existing disease. Despite the rapid development of monovalent pandemic vaccines, and the fast-tracked approval process, these products were not available for large-scale use until the end of the second wave of infection. Vaccine uptake was relatively low, both among children and health-care workers. The monovalent pandemic vaccines and the 2010/2011 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccines were immunogenic and effective, and they probably reduced the impact of the third wave of infection. Vaccines containing novel adjuvants enabled antigen sparing, but safety concerns could limit the future use of these adjuvanted influenza vaccines in children. Public perceptions that the threat of the pandemic was exaggerated by the authorities, and concerns about vaccine safety, might prompt an inadequate response to the next influenza pandemic, potentially compromising public health. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2012 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-06-01

In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.

Characteristics of atopic children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection: pandemic H1N1 influenza reveals 'occult' asthma of childhood.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Shunji; Hirano, Reiji; Hashimoto, Kunio; Haneda, Yasuhiro; Shirabe, Komei; Ichiyama, Takashi

2011-02-01

The number of human cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection has increased in Japan since April 2009, as it has worldwide. This virus is widespread in the Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan, where most infected children exhibited respiratory symptoms. Bronchial asthma is thought to be one of the risk factors that exacerbate respiratory symptoms of pandemic H1N1-infected patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the records of 33 children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection who were admitted to our hospital between October and December 2009 and analyzed their clinical features. The percentage of children with asthma attack, with or without abnormal findings on chest radiographs (pneumonia, atelectasis, etc.), caused by pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was significantly higher than that of children with asthma attack and 2008-2009 seasonal influenza infection. Of the 33 children in our study, 22 (66.7%) experienced an asthma attack. Among these children, 20 (90.9%) did not receive long-term management for bronchial asthma, whereas 7 (31.8%) were not diagnosed with bronchial asthma and had experienced their first asthma attack. However, the severity of the attack did not correlate with the severity of the pulmonary complications of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection. The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus greatly increases the risk of lower respiratory tract complications such as asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis, when compared to the seasonal influenza virus. Furthermore, our results suggest that pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection can easily induce a severe asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis in atopic children without any history of either an asthma attack or asthma treatment. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

PubMed

Gumel, Abba B; Nuño, Miriam; Chowell, Gerardo

2008-03-01

The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan. A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed or infectious). The model was parametrized using available Canadian demographic data. The model was then used to evaluate the key components outlined in the Canadian plan. The results indicated that the number of cases, mortalities and hospitalizations estimated in the Canadian plan may have been underestimated; the use of antivirals, administered therapeutically, prophylactically or both, is the most effective single intervention followed by the use of a vaccine and basic public health measures; and the combined use of pharmaceutical interventions (antivirals and vaccine) can dramatically minimize the burden of the pending influenza pandemic in Canada. Based on increasing concerns of Oseltamivir resistance (wide-scale implementation), coupled with the expected unavailability of a suitable vaccine during the early stages of a pandemic, the present study evaluated the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which were not emphasized in the current Canadian plan. To this end, the findings suggest that the use of NPIs can drastically reduce the burden of a pandemic in Canada. A deterministic model was designed and used to assess Canada's pandemic preparedness plan. The study showed that the estimates of pandemic influenza burden given in the Canada pandemic preparedness plan may be an underestimate, and that Canada needs to adopt NPIs to complement its preparedness plan.

Anticipation and response: pandemic influenza in Malawi, 2009

PubMed Central

Sambala, Evanson Z.; Manderson, Lenore

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: In 2006, Malawi developed a national influenza plan to mitigate, prevent and manage the burden of infection should an outbreak occur. In 2009, it translated its contingency plan to respond to the unfolding influenza pandemic. However, little is known of how Malawi translated its national influenza plan into response actions, or the success of these responses. Objective: To investigate how Malawi translated its preparedness plan and so broaden our understanding of the outcomes of the responses. Methods: We draw on data from 22 in-depth interviews with government policymakers and people working at a policy level in various non-governmental organisations, conducted to assess the level of preparedness and the challenges of translating this. Results: Through a number of public health initiatives, authorities developed communication strategies, strengthened influenza surveillance activities and updated overall goals in pandemic training and education. However, without influenza drills, exercises and simulations to test the plan, activating the pandemic plan, including coordinating and deploying generic infection control measures, was problematic. Responses during the pandemic were at times ‘weak and clumsy’ and failed to mirror the activities and processes highlighted in the preparedness plan. Conclusions: Participants stressed that in order to achieve a coordinated and successful response to mitigate and prevent the further transmission of pandemic influenza, good preparation was critical. The key elements which they identified as relevant for a rapid response included effective communications, robust evidence-based decision-making, strong and reliable surveillance systems and flexible public health responses. To effectively articulate a viable trajectory of pandemic responses, the potential value of simulation exercises could be given more consideration as a mean of sustaining good levels of preparedness and responses against future pandemics. These all demand a well-structured planning for and response to pandemic influenza strategy developed by a functioning scientific and policy advisory committee. PMID:28753109

The 2015 global production capacity of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine.

PubMed

McLean, Kenneth A; Goldin, Shoshanna; Nannei, Claudia; Sparrow, Erin; Torelli, Guido

2016-10-26

A global shortage and inequitable access to influenza vaccines has been cause for concern for developing countries who face dire consequences in the event of a pandemic. The Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP) was launched in 2006 to increase global capacity for influenza vaccine production to address these concerns. It is widely recognized that well-developed infrastructure to produce seasonal influenza vaccines leads to increased capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccines. This article summarizes the results of a survey administered to 44 manufacturers to assess their production capacity for seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccine production. When the GAP was launched in 2006, global production capacity for seasonal and pandemic vaccines was estimated to be 500million and 1.5billion doses respectively. Since 2006 there has been a significant increase in capacity, with the 2013 survey estimating global capacity at 1.5billion seasonal and 6.2billion pandemic doses. Results of the current survey showed that global seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity has decreased since 2013 from 1.504billion doses to 1.467billion doses. However, notwithstanding the overall global decrease in seasonal vaccine capacity there were notable positive changes in the distribution of production capacity with increases noted in South East Asia (SEAR) and the Western Pacific (WPR) regions, albeit on a small scale. Despite a decrease in seasonal capacity, there has been a global increase of pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity from 6.2 billion doses in 2013 to 6.4 billion doses in 2015. This growth can be attributed to a shift towards more quadrivalent vaccine production and also to increased use of adjuvants. Pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity is at its highest recorded levels however challenges remain in maintaining this capacity and in ensuring access in the event of a pandemic to underserved regions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mitigation Approaches to Combat the Flu Pandemic

PubMed Central

Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

2009-01-01

Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15th June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels. PMID:20300402

Differential Immune Profiles in Two Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Waves at Pandemic Epicenter.

PubMed

Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Rodríguez-Abrego, Gabriela; Mancilla-Herrera, Ismael; Domínguez-Cerezo, Esteban; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Lozano-Patiño, Fernando; Laredo-Sánchez, Fernando; Malagón-Rangel, José; Nellen-Hummel, Haiko; González-Bonilla, César; Arteaga-Troncoso, Gabriel; Cérbulo-Vázquez, Arturo; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

2015-11-01

Severe influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 virus infection cases are characterized by sustained immune activation during influenza pandemics. Seasonal flu data suggest that immune mediators could be modified by wave-related changes. Our aim was to determine the behavior of soluble and cell-related mediators in two waves at the epicenter of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Leukocyte surface activation markers were studied in serum from peripheral blood samples, collected from the 1(st) (April-May, 2009) and 2(nd) (October 2009-February 2010) pandemic waves. Patients with confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 virus infection (H1N1), influenza-like illness (ILI) or healthy donors (H) were analyzed. Serum IL-6, IL-4 and IL-10 levels were elevated in H1N1 patients from the 2(nd) pandemic wave. Additionally, the frequency of helper and cytotoxic T cells was reduced during the 1(st) wave, whereas CD69 expression in helper T cells was increased in the 2(nd) wave for both H1N1 and ILI patients. In contrast, CD62L expression in granulocytes from the ILI group was increased in both waves but in monocytes only in the 2(nd) wave. Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells (TREM)-1 expression was elevated only in H1N1 patients at the 1(st) wave. Our results show that during the 2009 influenza pandemic a T cell activation phenotype is observed in a wave-dependent fashion, with an expanded activation in the 2(nd) wave, compared to the 1(st) wave. Conversely, granulocyte and monocyte activation is infection-dependent. This evidence collected at the pandemic epicenter in 2009 could help us understand the differences in the underlying cellular mechanisms that drive the wave-related immune profile behaviors that occur against influenza viruses during pandemics. Copyright © 2015 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic.

PubMed

Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

2009-07-01

Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15(th) June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation.The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels.

Content analysis of press coverage during the H1N1 influenza pandemic in Germany 2009-2010.

PubMed

Husemann, Sabine; Fischer, Florian

2015-04-15

The H1N1 influenza pandemic occurred in Germany between April 2009 and August 2010. Pandemics often lead to uncertainty amongst the public and so risk communication on health-related issues is one of the key areas of action for health authorities and other healthcare institutions. The mass media may contribute to risk communication, so this study analysed press coverage during the H1N1 pandemic in Germany. A comprehensive analysis of the press coverage during the H1N1 pandemic was conducted in two steps. First, a temporal analysis was carried out of newspaper articles over the entire course of the pandemic, a total of 15,353 articles. The newspaper articles were obtained from the database Nexis. The total number of articles about the influenza pandemic during each individual week was plotted against the number of incident influenza cases during that week. Second, a quantitative content analysis of 140 newspaper articles from selected dates was conducted. This study indicates that media awareness seems to be strongly related to the actual situation in the pandemic, because changes in the number of infected people were associated with nearly identical changes in the number of newspaper articles. Few articles contained information on the agent of the influenza or support measures. Information on vaccination was included in 32.9% of all articles. Almost half of the articles (48.6%) used case reports. Fear appeals were used in only 10.7% of the newspaper articles; 32.9% of the articles contained the message characteristic "self-efficacy". The newspaper articles that were analysed in the content analysis included different information and message characteristics. The extent of information provided differed during the pandemic. As current research indicates, the use of message characteristics such as fear appeals and self-efficacy, which were also included in the analysed newspaper articles, can help to make health messages effective.

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention.

PubMed

Boyd, Matt; Baker, Michael G; Mansoor, Osman D; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Wilson, Nick

2017-01-01

Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, "Scenario A"), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of "Scenario A", or 2.75% of the country's population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for "Scenario A" times three for 26 weeks of border closure-but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). This "proof-of-concept" work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.

[Predicting spread of new pandemic swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in local mid-size city: evaluation of hospital bed shortage and effectiveness of vaccination].

PubMed

Takeuchi, Shouhei; Kuroda, Yoshiki

2010-01-01

On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan. We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios. Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total. We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.

Was mandatory quarantine necessary in China for controlling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic?

PubMed

Li, Xinhai; Geng, Wenjun; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian

2013-09-30

The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.

Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?

PubMed Central

Li, Xinhai; Geng, Wenjun; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian

2013-01-01

The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity. PMID:24084677

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of pre-existing immunity in older populations

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo

2010-01-01

Background While the mortality burden of the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic has been carefully quantified in the US, Japan, and European countries, little is known about the pandemic experience elsewhere. Here, we compiled extensive archival records to quantify the pandemic mortality patterns in two Mexican cities, Mexico City and Toluca. Methods We applied seasonal excess mortality models to age-specific respiratory mortality rates for 1915–1920 and quantified the reproduction number from daily data. Results We identified 3 pandemic waves in Mexico City in spring 1918, fall 1918, and winter 1920, characterized by unusual excess mortality in 25–44 years old. Toluca experienced 2-fold higher excess mortality rates than Mexico City, but did not have a substantial 3rd wave. All age groups including those over 65 years experienced excess mortality during 1918–20. Reproduction number estimates were below 2.5 assuming a 3-day generation interval. Conclusion Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the US and Europe. In contrast to the US and Europe, there was no mortality sparing in Mexican seniors, highlighting potential geographical differences in pre-existing immunity to the 1918 virus. We discuss the relevance of our findings to the 2009 pandemic mortality patterns. PMID:20594109

Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives.

PubMed

Silva, Diego S; Gibson, Jennifer L; Robertson, Ann; Bensimon, Cécile M; Sahni, Sachin; Maunula, Laena; Smith, Maxwell J

2012-03-26

Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans.

Oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza a (H1N1) 2009 viruses in Spain.

PubMed

Ledesma, Juan; Vicente, Diego; Pozo, Francisco; Cilla, Gustavo; Castro, Sonia Pérez; Fernández, Jonathan Suárez; Ruiz, Mercedes Pérez; Navarro, José María; Galán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Mirian; Reina, Jordi; Larrauri, Amparo; Cuevas, María Teresa; Casas, Inmaculada; Breña, Pilar Pérez

2011-07-01

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus appeared in Spain on April 25, 2009 for the first time. This new virus was adamantane-resistant but it was sensitive to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir. To detect oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses by the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System (SISS) and a possible spread of oseltamivir-resistant viruses in Spain since starting of the pandemic situation. A total of 1229 respiratory samples taken from 413 severe and 766 non-severe patients with confirmed viral detection of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses from different Spanish regions were analyzed for the specific detection of the H275Y mutation in NA between April 2009 and May 2010. H275Y NA substitution was found in 8 patients infected with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses collected in November and December 2009 and in January 2010. All oseltamivir-resistant viruses were detected in severe patients (8/413, 1.93%) who previously received treatment with oseltamivir. Six of these patients were immunocompromised. In Spain, the number of oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses is until now very low. No evidence for any spread of oseltamivir-resistant H1N1 viruses is achieved in our Country. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland

PubMed Central

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L.; Egger, Matthias

2016-01-01

Background Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. Methods We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Results Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4–1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7–18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8–2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1–1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. Conclusions We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries. PMID:27706149

Tuning in and catching on? Examining the relationship between pandemic communication and awareness and knowledge of MERS in the USA.

PubMed

Lin, Leesa; McCloud, Rachel F; Bigman, Cabral A; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2017-06-01

Large-scale influenza outbreaks over the last decade, such as SARS and H1N1, have brought to global attention the importance of emergency risk communication and prompted the international community to develop communication responses. Since pandemic outbreaks are relatively infrequent, there is a dearth of evidence addressing the following questions: (i) Have the resources invested in strategic and routine communication for past pandemic outbreaks yielded public health preparedness benefits? (ii) Have past efforts sensitized people to pay attention to new pandemic threats? The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) that was followed closely by major media outlets in the USA provides an opportunity to examine the relationship between exposure to public communication about epidemics and public awareness and knowledge about new risks. In December, 2013, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of 627 American adults and examined the associations between people's awareness to prior pandemics and their awareness of and knowledge about MERS. Awareness of prior pandemics was significantly associated with awareness and knowledge of MERS. The most common sources from which people first heard about MERS were also identified. Communication inequalities were observed between racial/ethnic and socioeconomic positions, suggesting a need for more effective pandemic communication. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Two Years after Pandemic Influenza A/2009/H1N1: What Have We Learned?

PubMed Central

Cheng, Vincent C. C.; To, Kelvin K. W.; Tse, Herman; Hung, Ivan F. N.

2012-01-01

Summary: The world had been anticipating another influenza pandemic since the last one in 1968. The pandemic influenza A H1N1 2009 virus (A/2009/H1N1) finally arrived, causing the first pandemic influenza of the new millennium, which has affected over 214 countries and caused over 18,449 deaths. Because of the persistent threat from the A/H5N1 virus since 1997 and the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus in 2003, medical and scientific communities have been more prepared in mindset and infrastructure. This preparedness has allowed for rapid and effective research on the epidemiological, clinical, pathological, immunological, virological, and other basic scientific aspects of the disease, with impacts on its control. A PubMed search using the keywords “pandemic influenza virus H1N1 2009” yielded over 2,500 publications, which markedly exceeded the number published on previous pandemics. Only representative works with relevance to clinical microbiology and infectious diseases are reviewed in this article. A significant increase in the understanding of this virus and the disease within such a short amount of time has allowed for the timely development of diagnostic tests, treatments, and preventive measures. These findings could prove useful for future randomized controlled clinical trials and the epidemiological control of future pandemics. PMID:22491771

The Modes of Evolutionary Emergence of Primal and Late Pandemic Influenza Virus Strains from Viral Reservoir in Animals: An Interdisciplinary Analysis

PubMed Central

Shoham, Dany

2011-01-01

Based on a wealth of recent findings, in conjunction with earliest chronologies pertaining to evolutionary emergences of ancestral RNA viruses, ducks, Influenzavirus A (assumingly within ducks), and hominids, as well as to the initial domestication of mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos), jungle fowl (Gallus gallus), wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo), wild boar (Sus scrofa), and wild horse (Equus ferus), presumed genesis modes of primordial pandemic influenza strains have multidisciplinarily been configured. The virological fundamentality of domestication and farming of those various avian and mammalian species has thereby been demonstrated and broadly elucidated, within distinctive coevolutionary paradigms. The mentioned viral genesis modes were then analyzed, compatibly with common denominators and flexibility that mark the geographic profile of the last 18 pandemic strains, which reputedly emerged since 1510, the antigenic profile of the last 10 pandemic strains since 1847, and the genomic profile of the last 5 pandemic strains since 1918, until present. Related ecophylogenetic and biogeographic aspects have been enlightened, alongside with the crucial role of spatial virus gene dissemination by avian hosts. A fairly coherent picture of primary and late evolutionary and genomic courses of pandemic strains has thus been attained, tentatively. Specific patterns underlying complexes prone to generate past and future pandemic strains from viral reservoir in animals are consequentially derived. PMID:23074663

Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence

PubMed Central

Wever, Peter C; van Bergen, Leo

2014-01-01

The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1·2 million U.S. troops. With over 26 000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered “America's deadliest battle”. The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45 000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded “America's deadliest”. The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918. PMID:24975798

Yersinia pestis DNA from skeletal remains from the 6(th) century AD reveals insights into Justinianic Plague.

PubMed

Harbeck, Michaela; Seifert, Lisa; Hänsch, Stephanie; Wagner, David M; Birdsell, Dawn; Parise, Katy L; Wiechmann, Ingrid; Grupe, Gisela; Thomas, Astrid; Keim, Paul; Zöller, Lothar; Bramanti, Barbara; Riehm, Julia M; Scholz, Holger C

2013-01-01

Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of the disease plague, has been implicated in three historical pandemics. These include the third pandemic of the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries, during which plague was spread around the world, and the second pandemic of the 14(th)-17(th) centuries, which included the infamous epidemic known as the Black Death. Previous studies have confirmed that Y. pestis caused these two more recent pandemics. However, a highly spirited debate still continues as to whether Y. pestis caused the so-called Justinianic Plague of the 6(th)-8(th) centuries AD. By analyzing ancient DNA in two independent ancient DNA laboratories, we confirmed unambiguously the presence of Y. pestis DNA in human skeletal remains from an Early Medieval cemetery. In addition, we narrowed the phylogenetic position of the responsible strain down to major branch 0 on the Y. pestis phylogeny, specifically between nodes N03 and N05. Our findings confirm that Y. pestis was responsible for the Justinianic Plague, which should end the controversy regarding the etiology of this pandemic. The first genotype of a Y. pestis strain that caused the Late Antique plague provides important information about the history of the plague bacillus and suggests that the first pandemic also originated in Asia, similar to the other two plague pandemics.

Documents Related to the Flu Pandemic of 1918

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazzone, Raphael; Potter, Lee Ann

2006-01-01

This article discusses a worldwide epidemic--a pandemic--that appeared in the United Sates during the latter part of the summer of 1918. During 1918 and 1919, between 50 and 100 million people around the globe fell victim to a rapidly spreading and untreatable strain of influenza. The pandemic so severely affected the U.S. population that roughly…

Reflections on pandemics, past and present.

PubMed

Schuchat, Anne

2011-06-01

The author reflects on her personal experiences during the 2009 H1N1 influenza, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemics. The roles played by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention related to pregnancy-associated influenza during the 2009 pandemic are described. Risk communication principles are summarized and resources provided. Published by Mosby, Inc.

[Study on risk awareness and preparedness for pandemic flu among staff members from enterprises].

PubMed

Wu, Jiang; Lv, Min; Wang, Quan-yi; Dong, Zhen-ying; Yi, Qing; Zhang, Xiantao

2007-01-01

To evaluate the risk awareness and preparedness related to pandemic flu in China. Two groups of people, mainly employers and employees from enterprises, were covered in the survey, using quantitative (questionnaire) and qualitative (in-depth interview) methods. The employers and employees were from joint-ventured corporations, large state-owned corporations and private companies which were randomly selected from 7 major cities in China. (1) 82% of the people surveyed and interviewed had basic knowledge on pandemic flu. (2) 60% of the joint-ventured corporations had worked out or were working on their business continuity plan in the event of pandemic flu, compared to that of state-owned corporations and private companies that the figure was only 21% . (3) 67% of the joint-ventured corporations had informed their preparedness plan on pandemic flu to their employees, while that of the state-owned and private corporations, it was only 42 %. (4) About 70 % of the corporations was establishing policies for restricting travel to affected geographic areas (both domestic and international), evacuating the employees who working in or near the affected area when an outbreak began. (5) Nearly 60 % of the corporations thought annual flu vaccination was important and hence encouraging and tracking annual flu vaccination for employees. (6) 70% of the corporations paid high attention on providing sufficient and accessible supplies (e. g. hand - hygiene products, tissues and receptacles for their disposal) to control the epidemics in all business locations while nearly 76 % of the corporations were interested in purchasing commercial medical insurance. Joint-verntured corporation were doing better than domestic corporations in terms of risk awareness and preparedness on pandemic flu, suggesting that the domestic corporation should learn from them regarding on pandemic flu preparedness to limit the negative impact of pandemic flu.

Predictors of influenza vaccine uptake during the 2009/10 influenza A H1N1v ('swine flu') pandemic: Results from five national surveys in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Han, You Kyung Julia; Michie, Susan; Potts, Henry W W; Rubin, G James

2016-03-01

To investigate reasons underlying the low uptake of the influenza A H1N1v vaccination in the UK during the 2009/10 pandemic. We analysed data from five national telephone surveys conducted in the UK during the latter stages of the pandemic to identify predictors of uptake amongst members of the public offered the vaccine by their primary care physician (n=1320). In addition to demographic variables, participants reported: reasons for declining the vaccination, levels of worry about the risk of catching swine flu, whether too much fuss was being made about the pandemic, whether they or a close friend or relative had had swine flu, how effective they felt the vaccine was, whether they had previously had a seasonal flu vaccination, how well prepared they felt the government was for a pandemic and how satisfied they were with information available about the pandemic. Most participants (n=734, 55.6%) reported being vaccinated against swine flu, compared to 396 who had not been vaccinated and were unlikely to be vaccinated in the future. The main reasons given for declining vaccination were concerns over the vaccine's safety, and being generally healthy. Controlling for demographic variables, risk factors for not being vaccinated were: being female, not having a long-standing infirmity or illness, not having been vaccinated against seasonal flu in previous years, feeling that too much fuss had been made about the pandemic and believing that the vaccine was ineffective. Interventions that target these factors may be effective in improving uptake in a future pandemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Variation of Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Peru

PubMed Central

Gavilan, Ronnie G.; Zamudio, Maria L.; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a foodborne pathogen that has become a public health concern at the global scale. The epidemiological significance of V. parahaemolyticus infections in Latin America received little attention until the winter of 1997 when cases related to the pandemic clone were detected in the region, changing the epidemic dynamics of this pathogen in Peru. With the aim to assess the impact of the arrival of the pandemic clone on local populations of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in Peru, we investigated the population genetics and genomic variation in a complete collection of non-pandemic strains recovered from clinical sources in Peru during the pre- and post-emergence periods of the pandemic clone. A total of 56 clinical strains isolated in Peru during the period 1994 to 2007, 13 strains from Chile and 20 strains from Asia were characterized by Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) and checked for the presence of Variable Genomic Regions (VGRs). The emergence of O3:K6 cases in Peru implied a drastic disruption of the seasonal dynamics of infections and a shift in the serotype dominance of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus. After the arrival of the pandemic clone, a great diversity of serovars not previously reported was detected in the country, which supports the introduction of additional populations cohabitating with the pandemic group. Moreover, the presence of genomic regions characteristic of the pandemic clone in other non-pandemic strains may represent early evidence of genetic transfer from the introduced population to the local communities. Finally, the results of this study stress the importance of population admixture, horizontal genetic transfer and homologous recombination as major events shaping the structure and diversity of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus. PMID:23696906

Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet

PubMed Central

Schuck‐Paim, Cynthia; Shanks, G. Dennis; Almeida, Francisco E. A.; Alonso, Wladimir J.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Schuck‐Paim et al. (2012) Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/j.1750‐2659.2012.00341.x. Background  The naval experience with the 1918 pandemic during World War I remains underexplored despite its key role on the pandemic’s global diffusion and the epidemiological interest of isolated and relatively homogeneous populations. The pandemic outbreak in the Brazilian naval fleet is of particular interest both because of its severity and the fact that it was the only Latin American military force deployed to war. Objectives  To study the mortality patterns of the pandemic in the Brazilian fleet sent to patrol the West African coast in 1918. Method  We investigated mortality across vessels, ranks, and occupations based on official population and mortality records from the Brazilian Navy Archives. Results  The outbreak that swept this fleet included the highest influenza mortality rate on any naval ship reported to date. Nearly 10% of the crews died, with death rates reaching 13–14% on two destroyers. While overall mortality was lower for officers, stokers and engineer officers were significantly more likely to die from the pandemic, possibly due to the pulmonary damage from constant exposure to the smoke and coal dust from the boilers. Conclusions  The fatality patterns observed provide valuable data on the conditions that can exacerbate the impact of a pandemic. While the putative lack of exposure to a first pandemic wave may have played a role in the excessive mortality observed in this fleet, our results indicate that strenuous labor conditions, dehydration, and exposure to coal dust were major risk factors. The unequal death rates among vessels remain an open question. PMID:22336427

Avian flu pandemic - flight of the healthcare worker?

PubMed

Shabanowitz, Robert B; Reardon, Judith E

2009-12-01

One of the ethical issues identified in response to a possible pandemic is healthcare workers' duty to provide care during a communicable disease outbreak. Healthcare employees may be subject to a variety of work obligations under such conditions. Questions of duty to treat remain controversial, and debate continues as to the ethical articulation of a duty to treat. This study aimed to investigate opinions from healthcare workers themselves on the perceived duty to treat, and how they might respond to a severe avian flu pandemic. Using system-wide e-mail, we surveyed employees at our rural tertiary/quaternary care health system regarding their knowledge of our institution's pandemic planning policy and their willingness to work in the event of a virulent avian pandemic. Results (N=908) show that employees felt a responsibility for"duty to care." Over 60% disagreed that it was ethical to abandon the workplace during a pandemic. However, opinions also stated that employees wanted autonomy to decide whether or not to work (65%). When asked about volunteering, 79% would agree to volunteer, given some incentives and protective options, the most salient being protective equipment (with relative training for use) and infectious disease training. Our research demonstrated that the healthcare workers a tour institution voiced an earnest willingness to work in the event of an avian flu pandemic, if provided with the necessary input, protections and tools, and education. The use of an electronic methodology for dissemination of surveys allowed the low-cost solicitation of information from a vast proportion of the workforce with ease, providing the institutional ethics committee with the empirical data needed to articulate more meaningful,thoughtful, and robust suggestions for ethical pandemic planning.

[An influenza pandemic in Russia as a part of a global spread of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2009-2011].

PubMed

Karpova, L S; Pelikh, M Iu; Stoliarov, K A; Popovtseva, N M; Stoliarova, T P

2012-01-01

The comparison of the first and second waves of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the world and Russia was performed on the basis of weekly reports of Regional offices for Europe and on the data of the Federal Center for Influenza on a weekly incidence of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections, hospitalization, and mortality from the influenza in the age groups of population in 49 cities of the Russian Federation. The first wave of the pandemic, which continued in the countries of the world all summer, was of mixed etiology and, in spite of the availability of imported cases, has not caused a steep increase in Russia. The second wave of the pandemic in the countries of the Southern hemisphere was less intense. In the countries of the Northern hemisphere (in autumn 2009), on the contrary, it was more intensive, which was associated with different seasonality of influenza in these hemispheres. In Russia, the second wave (2011) was of a lesser intensity as compared to the first with respect to the duration in the country and in urban areas, the incidence in the entire population, including schoolchildren and adults, the rate of hospitalization and case fatality rate reduction of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection. The duration of the last pandemic of 2009 was the same as in 1957 and 1968, and longer than in 1977. The morbidity was one-half less than in the pandemic of 1957 and 1968, and was approaching the pandemic 1977. At the same time, the incidence in children 3-6 and 7-14 years was higher than in previous pandemics.

Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008.

PubMed

Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A; Gensheimer, Kathleen F; Cox, Nancy J; Redd, Stephen C

2013-06-01

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community's response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises.

A study to identify winning strategies for the business community during the next pandemic.

PubMed

Spriggs, Martin

2013-01-01

This study examines the relationship between the healthcare system and the corporate sector to answer the following research question: how does the healthcare system best prepare small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza? Data were collected and collated through a literature review, electronic survey and semi-structured follow-up telephone interviews. The participants were businesses with membership in the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, a provincial lobby group in Alberta, Canada. The findings indicate strategies that were effective in minimising impact to the business community during the H1N1 pandemic and suggest areas for the business community to improve in preparation for the next pandemic influenza. Recommendations focus on establishing new links for communication between the business community and the healthcare sector and improving strategies to increase the resilience of small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza.

Circulating avian influenza viruses closely related to the 1918 virus have pandemic potential

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Tokiko; Zhong, Gongxun; Russell, Colin A.; Nakajima, Noriko; Hatta, Masato; Hanson, Anthony; McBride, Ryan; Burke, David F.; Takahashi, Kenta; Fukuyama, Satoshi; Tomita, Yuriko; Maher, Eileen A.; Watanabe, Shinji; Imai, Masaki; Neumann, Gabriele; Hasegawa, Hideki; Paulson, James C.; Smith, Derek J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

2014-01-01

Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential. PMID:24922572

Pandemic influenza and critical infrastructure dependencies: possible impact on hospitals.

PubMed

Itzwerth, Ralf L; Macintyre, C Raina; Shah, Smita; Plant, Aileen J

2006-11-20

Hospitals will be particularly challenged when pandemic influenza spreads. Within the health sector in general, existing pandemic plans focus on health interventions to control outbreaks. The critical relationship between the health sector and other sectors is not well understood and addressed. Hospitals depend on critical infrastructure external to the organisation itself. Existing plans do not adequately consider the complexity and interdependency of systems upon which hospitals rely. The failure of one such system can trigger a failure of another, causing cascading breakdowns. Health is only one of the many systems that struggle at maximum capacity during "normal" times, as current business models operate with no or minimal "excess" staff and have become irreducible operations. This makes interconnected systems highly vulnerable to acute disruptions, such as a pandemic. Companies use continuity plans and highly regulated business continuity management to overcome process interruptions. This methodology can be applied to hospitals to minimise the impact of a pandemic.

Pandemic influenza: implications for occupational medicine

PubMed Central

Journeay, W Shane; Burnstein, Matthew D

2009-01-01

This article reviews the biological and occupational medicine literature related to H5N1 pandemic influenza and its impact on infection control, cost and business continuity in settings outside the health care community. The literature on H5N1 biology is reviewed including the treatment and infection control mechanisms as they pertain to occupational medicine. Planning activity for the potential arrival of pandemic avian influenza is growing rapidly. Much has been published on the molecular biology of H5N1 but there remains a paucity of literature on the occupational medicine impacts to organizations. This review summarizes some of the basic science surrounding H5N1 influenza and raises some key concerns in pandemic planning for the occupational medicine professional. Workplaces other than health care settings will be impacted greatly by an H5N1 pandemic and the occupational physician will play an essential role in corporate preparation, response, and business continuity strategies. PMID:19549302

'If you have a soul, you will volunteer at once': gendered expectations of duty to care during pandemics.

PubMed

Godderis, Rebecca; Rossiter, Kate

2013-02-01

Duty to care has been identified as a pressing ethical issue in contemporary discussions of pandemic preparedness; however, nuanced discussions of this complicated issue are relatively limited. This article presents historical data from the experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Brantford, Ontario in Canada, demonstrating that, in the face of an actual pandemic, the particular construction of duty to care as both moral and gendered meant that women were placed at a greater personal risk during this time. Given that women still dominate the front lines of healthcare work, we argue that it is critical for current stakeholders to reflect on how these historical patterns may be replicated in contemporary pandemic planning and response. © 2012 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness 2012 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics

PubMed Central

Araz, Ozgur M.; Morton, David P.; Johnson, Gregory P.; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-01-01

In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:28518041

Child Care and Preschool Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2006

2006-01-01

A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges that people have little or no immunity to and for which there may be no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person and causes serious illness. It can sweep across the country and around the world very quickly. It is hard to predict when the…

Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. D.

1985-08-01

A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

Pandemic Flu: A Planning Guide for Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2006

2006-01-01

An influenza (flu) pandemic is a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new flu virus appears that can spread easily from person to person. Although it is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be, effects can be lessened if preparations are made ahead of time. The illness rates for both…

Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Z. D.

1985-01-01

A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

A Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Study: Use of Energetic Methods to Decontaminate Filtering Facepiece Respirators Contaminated with H1N1 Aerosols and Droplets (POSTPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

have caused millions of deaths worldwide.1,2 After the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968, experts predicted that another pandemic was im- minent. Their...was propagated in embryonic chicken eggs followingstandard protocols.37 Virus titers were determined us- ing a tissue culture infectious dose assay

Pandemic influenza: is there a corporate duty to prepare?

PubMed

McMenamin, Joseph P

2009-01-01

This article considers whether in the wake of an influenza pandemic companies may be exposed to claims of legal liability for failing to provide employees with access to antiviral medications, as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now encourages businesses to do. It begins by describing influenza and influenza pandemics. It then discusses the benefits and limitations of antiviral therapies and the recent creation of antiviral option programs. It concludes by considering whether claims may be brought on the theory that corporate leadership is under a duty to prepare for a pandemic by considering whether to provide access to antiviral protection for employees.

A qualitative study of pandemic influenza preparedness among small and medium-sized businesses in New York City.

PubMed

Burton, Deron C; Confield, Evan; Gasner, Mary Rose; Weisfuse, Isaac

2011-10-01

Small businesses need to engage in continuity planning to assure delivery of goods and services and to sustain the economy during an influenza pandemic. This is especially true in New York City, where 98 per cent of businesses have fewer than 100 employees. It was an objective therefore, to determine pandemic influenza business continuity practices and strategies suitable for small and medium-sized NYC businesses. The study design used focus groups, and the participants were owners and managers of businesses with fewer than 500 employees in New York City. The main outcome measures looked for were the degree of pandemic preparedness, and the feasibility of currently proposed business continuity strategies. Most participants reported that their businesses had no pandemic influenza plan. Agreement with feasibility of specific business continuity strategies was influenced by the type of business represented, cost of the strategy, and business size. It was concluded that recommendations for pandemic-related business continuity plans for small and medium-sized businesses should be tailored to the type and size of business and should highlight the broad utility of the proposed strategies to address a range of business stressors.

Vaccines for pandemic influenza. The history of our current vaccines, their limitations and the requirements to deal with a pandemic threat.

PubMed

Hampson, Alan W

2008-06-01

Fears of a potential pandemic due to A(H5N1) viruses have focussed new attention on our current vaccines, their shortcomings, and concerns regarding global vaccine supply in a pandemic. The bulk of current vaccines are inactivated split virus vaccines produced from egg-grown virus and have only modest improvements compared with those first introduced over 60 years ago. Splitting, which was introduced some years ago to reduce reactogenicity, also reduces the immunogenicity of vaccines in immunologically naïve recipients. The A(H5N1) viruses have been found poorly immunogenic and present other challenges for vaccine producers which further exacerbate an already limited global production capacity. There have been some recent improvements in vaccine production methods and improvements to immunogenicity by the development of new adjuvants, however, these still fall short of providing timely supplies of vaccine for all in the face of a pandemic. New approaches to influenza vaccines which might fulfil the demands of a pandemic situation are under evaluation, however, these remain some distance from clinical reality and face significant regulatory hurdles.

From press release to news: mapping the framing of the 2009 H1N1 A influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Lee, Seow Ting; Basnyat, Iccha

2013-01-01

Pandemics challenge conventional assumptions about health promotion, message development, community engagement, and the role of news media. To understand the use of press releases in news coverage of pandemics, this study traces the development of framing devices from a government public health agency's press releases to news stories about the 2009 H1N1 A influenza pandemic. The communication management of the H1N1 pandemic, an international news event with local implications, by the Singapore government is a rich locus for understanding the dynamics of public relations, health communication, and journalism. A content analysis shows that the evolution of information from press release to news is marked by significant changes in media frames, including the expansion and diversification in dominant frames and emotion appeals, stronger thematic framing, more sources of information, conversion of loss frames into gain frames, and amplification of positive tone favoring the public health agency's position. Contrary to previous research that suggests that government information subsidies passed almost unchanged through media gatekeepers, the news coverage of the pandemic reflects journalists' selectivity in disseminating the government press releases and in mediating the information flow and frames from the press releases.

Critically ill children with pandemic influenza (H1N1) in pediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

PubMed

Kendirli, Tanil; Demirkol, Demet; Yildizdas, Dinçer; Anil, Ayse Berna; Asilioğlu, Nazik; Karapinar, Bülent; Erkek, Nilgün; Sevketoğlu, Esra; Dursun, Oğuz; Arslanköylü, Ali Ertuğ; Bayrakçi, Benan; Bosnak, Mehmet; Köroğlu, Tolga; Horoz, Ozgür Ozden; Citak, Agop; Kesici, Selman; Ates, Can; Karaböcüoğlu, Metin; Ince, Erdal

2012-01-01

To outline the epidemiologic features, clinical presentation, clinical courses, and outcomes in critically ill children with pandemic influenza in pediatric intensive care units. Retrospective, observational, multicenter study. Thirteen tertiary pediatric intensive care units in Turkey. Eighty-three children with confirmed infection attributable to pandemic influenza detected by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay between November 1 and December 31, 2009 who were admitted to critical care units. None. During a 2-month period, 532 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza and 83 (15.6%) needed critical care. For the 83 patients requiring critical care, the median age was 42 (range, 2-204) months, with 24 (28.9%) and 48 (57.8%) of patients younger than 2 and 5 yrs, respectively. Twenty (24.1%) patients had no underlying illness, but 63 (75.9%) children had an underlying chronic illness. Indications for admission to the pediatric intensive care unit were respiratory failure in 66 (79.5%), neurologic deterioration in six (7.2%), and gastrointestinal symptoms in five (6.0%) patients. Acute lung injury was diagnosed in 23 (27.7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome was diagnosed in 34 (41%), and 51 (61.4%) patients were mechanically ventilated. Oseltamivir was used in 80 (96%) patients. The mortality rate for children with pandemic influenza 2009 was 30.1% compared to an overall mortality rate of 13.7% (p = .0016) among pediatric intensive care unit patients without pandemic influenza during the study period. Also, the mortality rate was 31.7% in patients with comorbidities and 25.0% in previously healthy children (p = .567). The cause of death was primary pandemic influenza infection in 16 (64%), nosocomial infection in four (16%), and primary disease progression in five (20%) patients. The odds ratio for respiratory failure was 14.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-111.11), and odds ratio for mechanical ventilation was 27.7 (95% confidence interval, 0.003-200). Severe disease and high mortality rates were seen in children with pandemic influenza. Death attributable to pandemic influenza occurred in all age groups of children with or without underlying illness. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is associated with increased mortality, and death is frequently secondary to severe lung infection caused by pandemic influenza.

Cost-Effectiveness of Healthcare Worker Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccination During Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Smith, Kenneth J.; Raymund, Mahlon; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Roberts, Mark S.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2010-01-01

Objective In prior influenza pandemics, pneumococcal complications of influenza have caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The usefulness and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination for healthcare workers during an influenza pandemic is unknown. Study Design Markov modeling was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination (PPV) in previously unvaccinated healthcare workers during an influenza pandemic. Methods Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence rates were incorporated into the model, assuming that IPD events occurred at twice the usual rate during the year of pandemic influenza. Both societal and hospital perspectives were examined. Assumptions were that: pneumococcal disease transmission from healthcare worker to patient did not occur, heightened IPD risk occurred for only 1 year, and PPV did not prevent noninvasive pneumonia, all of which potentially bias against vaccination. Results From a societal standpoint, pneumococcal vaccination of healthcare workers during an influenza pandemic is economically reasonable, costing $2,935 per quality adjusted life year gained; results were robust to variation in multiple sensitivity analyses. However, from the hospital perspective vaccinating healthcare workers was expensive, costing $1,676 per employee absence day avoided, given an IPD risk that, though increased, would still remain <1%. Conclusion Vaccinating all healthcare workers to protect against pneumococcal disease during a pandemic influenza outbreak is likely to be economically reasonable from the societal standpoint. However, pneumococcal vaccination is expensive from the hospital perspective, which might prevent implementation of a PPV program unless it is externally subsidized. PMID:20225915

Framing risk: communication messages in the Australian and Swedish print media surrounding the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

PubMed

Sandell, Tiffany; Sebar, Bernadette; Harris, Neil

2013-12-01

Australia and Sweden have similar immunisation rates. However, during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the uptake of immunisation was 60% in Sweden and 18% in Australia. During pandemics, perceptions of risk are largely formed by media communication which may influence the public's response. The study aimed to compare the differences in how the media framed the 2009 H1N1 pandemic message and the associated public perceptions of risk as expressed through the uptake of vaccinations in Australia and Sweden. A qualitative content analysis was conducted on 81 articles from the Australian and Swedish print media: 45 and 36, respectively. The risk of H1N1 was communicated similarly in Australia and Sweden. However, major differences were found in how the Australian and Swedish media framed the pandemic in terms of responsibility, self-efficacy, and uncertainty. In Australia, responsibility was predominantly reported negatively, blaming various organisations for a lack of information, compared to Sweden where responsibility was placed on the community to help protect public health. Furthermore, there was limited self-efficacy measures reported in the Australian media compared to Sweden and Sweden's media was more transparent about the uncertainties of the pandemic. This study affirms the association between the framing of health messages in the media and the public's perception of risk and related behaviour. Governments need to actively incorporate the media into pandemic communication planning.

H7N9 Influenza Virus Is More Virulent in Ferrets than 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus.

PubMed

Yum, Jung; Ku, Keun Bon; Kim, Hyun Soo; Seo, Sang Heui

2015-12-01

The novel H7N9 influenza virus has been infecting humans in China since February 2013 and with a mortality rate of about 40%. This study compared the pathogenicity of the H7N9 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in a ferret model, which shows similar symptoms to those of humans infected with influenza viruses. The H7N9 influenza virus caused a more severe disease than did the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. All of the ferrets infected with the H7N9 influenza virus had died by 6 days after infection, while none of those infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus died. Ferrets infected with the H7N9 influenza virus had higher viral titers in their lungs than did those infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. Histological findings indicated that hemorrhagic pneumonia was caused by infection with the H7N9 influenza virus, but not with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. In addition, the lung tissues of ferrets infected with the H7N9 influenza virus contained higher levels of chemokines than did those of ferrets infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. This study suggests that close monitoring is needed to prevent human infection by the lethal H7N9 influenza virus.

[Characteristics of cases hospitalized for severe pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Catalonia].

PubMed

Godoy, Pere; Rodés, Anna; Alvarez, Josep; Camps, Neus; Barrabeig, Irene; Sala, María Rosa; Minguell, Sofía; Lafuente, Sarah; Pumarola, Tomás; Domínguez, Angela; Plasència, Antoni

2011-01-01

Influenza pandemics may cause more severe cases. The objective was to determine the characteristics of hospitalized severe cases of pandemic influenza in Catalonia and to study risk factors for admission to intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective epidemiologic study of new cases of pandemic influenza hospitalized by their severity between June 2009 and May 2010. Hospitals were asked to declare laboratory confirmed pandemic influenza cases that met the case specific case definition for severe case. A standardized epidemiological survey was conducted to collect information on demographics, clinical characteristics, risk factors, treatment and outcome. Differences between the cases in ICU compared to other severe cases were studied with the odds ratio (OR), which were adjusted using a logistic regression model. We detected total of 773 pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 severe cases; 465 (60.2%) of them had at least one risk factor and the most prevalent were: pregnancy 19 (13%), asthma 87 (12%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 87 (11.4%) and heart disease 80 (10.5%). Required admission to ICU 293 patients (37.9%). Factors associated with ICU admission were obesity BMI>40 (adjusted OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.5) and chronic liver disease (adjusted OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.8). This study confirms the high prevalence of pregnancy, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes and obesity among pandemic influenza severe cases. Obesity acts as a risk factor for ICU admission and should therefore be considered as an indicator for influenza vaccination.

Business continuity and pandemic preparedness: US health care versus non-health care agencies.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Wang, Jing; Swick, Zachary; Reddick, David; delRosario, John Leon

2013-04-01

Only limited data are available on US business continuity activities related to biologic events. A questionnaire was administered to human resource professionals during May-July 2011 to assess business continuity related to biologic events, incentives businesses are providing to maximize worker surge capacity, and seasonal influenza vaccination policy. Linear regressions were used to describe factors associated with higher business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores. The χ(2) and Fisher exact tests compared health care versus non-health care businesses on preparedness indicators. Possible business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0.5 to 27 and 0 to 15, with average resulting scores among participants at 13.2 and 7.3, respectively. Determinants of business continuity and pandemic preparedness were (1) business size (larger businesses were more prepared), (2) type of business (health care more prepared), (3) having human resource professional as company disaster planning committee member, and (4) risk perception of a pandemic in the next year. Most businesses (63.3%, n = 298) encourage staff influenza vaccination; 2.1% (n = 10) mandate it. Only 10% of businesses (11.0%, n = 52) provide employee incentives, and fewer than half (41.0%, n = 193) stockpile personal protective equipment. Despite the recent H1N1 pandemic, many US businesses lack adequate pandemic plans. It is critical that businesses of all sizes and types become better prepared for a biologic event. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. Methods To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Conclusions Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans. PMID:22449119

Beyond Morality: Assessment of the Capacity of Faith-based Organizations (FBOS) in Responding to the HIV/AIDS Challenge in Southeastern Nigeria.

PubMed

Anugwom, Eze Edlyne; Anugwom, Kenechukwu

2018-01-01

For the world can get rid of the HIV/AIDS pandemic by 2030, there is need for more to be done especially in the case of countries in Africa. In Nigeria, such efforts have included Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs) recognized as partners in the National Response Framework. However, the extent to which these FBOs contribute to efforts to control the pandemic will depend on their capacity. Therefore, this study aimed to ascertain the technical and managerial capacity of these FBOs to respond to the pandemic in Nigeria. We utilized social survey in examining the capacity of three purposively selected FBOs in the Southeast of Nigeria to respond to the pandemic. Thus, the focus group discussion and the key informant interviews were used. The data for the study was collected between Feb and Apr 2014. The study discovered a general low capacity but high willingness of the FBOs to get involved. One of the FBOs studied was better placed than others and had even established committee on the pandemic. However, in another FBO, the pandemic was still seen largely with moral lens that blame those infected rather than provide support. All the FBOs were ambivalent on the use of condoms as a prevention method. There is need for sustained capacity building for the FBOs in order to provide them with knowledge on the pandemic and help them act out the role envisaged for them in the National Response Framework in Nigeria.

Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence.

PubMed

Wever, Peter C; van Bergen, Leo

2014-09-01

The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1.2 million U.S. troops. With over 26,000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered "America's deadliest battle". The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45,000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded "America's deadliest". The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Transmission of Hemagglutinin D222G Mutant Strain of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus

PubMed Central

Facchini, Marzia; Spagnolo, Domenico; De Marco, Maria A.; Calzoletti, Laura; Zanetti, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Roberto; Tanzi, Maria L.; Cassone, Antonio; Rezza, Giovanni; Donatelli, Isabella

2010-01-01

A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus strain carrying the D222G mutation was identified in a severely ill man and was transmitted to a household contact. Only mild illness developed in the contact, despite his obesity and diabetes. The isolated virus reacted fully with an antiserum against the pandemic vaccine strain. PMID:20409386

Getting Beyond Getting Ready for Pandemic Influenza

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

more information, see: http://homeland.house.gov/Hearings/index.asp?ID=89. “…Emerging biological threats such as pandemic influenza or weaponized ...which we have no immediately available cure. Work is clearly underway to prepare for such a biological event.10 However, despite the fact that...Nation to fully withstand the impact of such a devastating widespread biological event. Pandemic influenza would destroy the security of our

75 FR 75483 - Guidance for Industry: Recommendations for Blood Establishments: Training of Back-Up Personnel...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

... in Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus'' dated November 2009. The guidance announced in this..., and Preservation of the Blood Supply in Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus'' (November 2009). At that time, we anticipated that the rapid spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus had the potential to...

Department of Defense Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

and Low Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC)) will provide policy oversight of the DoD Pandemic Influenza bilateral and multilateral international...flexible worksites (e.g., telecommuting ) and flexible work hours (e.g., staggered shifts) in the event of a pandemic. o Ensure development of active...however, special consideration must be given to “social distancing” in the workplace through 74 telecommuting , or other means, as an

Flu Plan: Colleges Struggle with How They Would React to a Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guterman, Lila

2005-01-01

Administrators of various education schools have vowed to ready their institutions for the next major disaster of flu pandemic. While a few colleges with expertise or interest in the area are trying to determine how their campuses should react to a flu pandemic, most seem to be struggling with how to fit all the unknowns of such a crisis into…

Continual re-introduction of human pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses into US swine, 2009-2014

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses (pH1N1) increased the genetic diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) globally and is linked to the emergence of new pandemic threats, including H3N2v variants. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the Unit...

Safety and efficacy of a novel live attenuated influenza vaccine against pandemic H1N1 in swine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreaks caused by novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus had reached pandemic proportions. The pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) is the predominant influenza strain in the human population. It has also crossed the species barriers a...

Age as Risk Factor for Death from Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Chile

PubMed Central

Dabanch, Jeannette; Nájera, Manuel; González, Claudia; Guerrero, Andrea; Olea, Andrea; Fasce, Rodrigo; Morales, Cecilia; Vega, Jeanette

2011-01-01

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 affected Chile during the winter of 2009. The hospitalization rate was 0.56% overall and 3.47% for persons >60 years of age at risk for severe disease and death independent of concurrent conditions. Age >60 years was the major risk factor for death from pandemic (H1N1) 2009. PMID:21762580

Humoral and cellular responses to a non-adjuvanted monovalent H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine in hospital employees

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The efficacy of the H1N1 influenza vaccine relies on the induction of both humoral and cellular responses. This study evaluated the humoral and cellular responses to a monovalent non-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine in occupationally exposed subjects who were previously vaccinated with a seasonal vaccine. Methods Sixty healthy workers from a respiratory disease hospital were recruited. Sera and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were obtained prior to and 1 month after vaccination with a non-adjuvanted monovalent 2009 H1N1 vaccine (Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Monovalent Vaccine Panenza, Sanofi Pasteur). Antibody titers against the pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus were measured via hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralization assays. Antibodies against the seasonal HA1 were assessed by ELISA. The frequency of IFN-γ-producing cells as well as CD4+ and CD8+ T cell proliferation specific to the pandemic virus A/H1N peptides, seasonal H1N1 peptides and seasonal H3N2 peptides were assessed using ELISPOT and flow cytometry. Results At baseline, 6.7% of the subjects had seroprotective antibody titers. The seroconversion rate was 48.3%, and the seroprotection rate was 66.7%. The geometric mean titers (GMTs) were significantly increased (from 6.8 to 64.9, p < 0.05). Forty-nine percent of the subjects had basal levels of specific IFN-γ-producing T cells to the pandemic A/H1N1 peptides that were unchanged post-vaccination. CD4+ T cell proliferation in response to specific pandemic A/H1N1 virus peptides was also unchanged; in contrast, the antigen-specific proliferation of CD8+ T cells significantly increased post-vaccination. Conclusion Our results indicate that a cellular immune response that is cross-reactive to pandemic influenza antigens may be present in populations exposed to the circulating seasonal influenza virus prior to pandemic or seasonal vaccination. Additionally, we found that the pandemic vaccine induced a significant increase in CD8+ T cell proliferation. PMID:24238117

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention

PubMed Central

Boyd, Matt; Baker, Michael G.; Mansoor, Osman D.; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Wilson, Nick

2017-01-01

Background Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. Objective To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. Methods An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). Results For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). Conclusions This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective. PMID:28622344

Comparison of five influenza surveillance systems during the 2009 pandemic and their association with media attention

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic period, routine surveillance of influenza-like-illness (ILI) was conducted in The Netherlands by a network of sentinel general practitioners (GPs). In addition during the pandemic period, four other ILI/influenza surveillance systems existed. For pandemic preparedness, we evaluated the performance of the sentinel system and the others to assess which of the four could be useful additions in the future. We also assessed whether performance of the five systems was influenced by media reports during the pandemic period. Methods The trends in ILI consultation rates reported by sentinel GPs from 20 April 2009 through 3 January 2010 were compared with trends in data from the other systems: ILI cases self-reported through the web-based Great Influenza Survey (GIS); influenza-related web searches through Google Flu Trends (GFT); patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza, and detections of influenza virus by laboratories. In addition, correlations were determined between ILI consultation rates of the sentinel GPs and data from the four other systems. We also compared the trends of the five surveillance systems with trends in pandemic-related newspaper and television coverage and determined correlation coefficients with and without time lags. Results The four other systems showed similar trends and had strong correlations with the ILI consultation rates reported by sentinel GPs. The number of influenza virus detections was the only system to register a summer peak. Increases in the number of newspaper articles and television broadcasts did not precede increases in activity among the five surveillance systems. Conclusions The sentinel general practice network should remain the basis of influenza surveillance, as it integrates epidemiological and virological information and was able to maintain stability and continuity under pandemic pressure. Hospital and virological data are important during a pandemic, tracking the severity, molecular and phenotypic characterization of the viruses and confirming whether ILI incidence is truly related to influenza virus infections. GIS showed that web-based, self-reported ILI can be a useful addition, especially if virological self-sampling is added and an epidemic threshold could be determined. GFT showed negligible added value. PMID:24063523

Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) seasons in a tertiary care university hospital-high rate of complications compared to previous influenza seasons.

PubMed

Bauernfeind, S; Bruennler, T; Ehrenstein, B; Langgartner, J; Wenzel, J J; Werner, S; Lubnow, M; Mueller, T; Floerchinger, B; Salzberger, B

2013-02-01

The aim was to study the characteristics and case severity of patients hospitalized for influenza with a pandemic strain at a German tertiary care university hospital in 2009/10 and 2010/11 and to compare them to two previous influenza seasons. An observational study of all patients hospitalized for laboratory-confirmed influenza during the last four influenza seasons at Regensburg University Hospital was undertaken. During the last four seasons, a rising number of patients were admitted due to influenza (4 in 2007/8, 16 in 2008/9, 27 in 2009/10, and 55 in 2010/11). Patients seen in the last two seasons were younger (median age 63 years in 2007/8, 52 years in 2008/9, 42 years in 2009/10, and 48 years in 2010/11) (p = 0.046) and presented with a lower rate of major comorbidities (75 % in 2007/8, 62.5 % in 2008/9, 37 % in 2009/10, and 47.3 % in 2010/11). The pandemic and post-pandemic seasons were characterized by a high rate of seriously ill patients with longer hospitalizations (11 days in 2007/8, 7 days in 2008/9, 22 days in 2009/10 and 2010/11) (p = 0.004) and higher rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (25 % in 2007/8, 18.8 % in 2008/9, 66.7 % in 2009/10, and 52.7 % in 2010/11) (p = 0.003) and mechanical ventilation (25 % in 2007/8, 6.3 % in 2008/9, 63 % in 2009/10, and 49.1 % in 2010/11) (p < 0.001). Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) was necessary in 33.3 % of patients in 2009/10 and 25.5 % in 2010/11. We had six fatalities in both pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. Compared to seasonal influenza, we observed even more so in the post-pandemic than the pandemic season a higher number of younger patients, with less serious comorbidities often showing a very severe course.

Insufficient preparedness of primary care practices for pandemic influenza and the effect of a preparedness plan in Japan: a prefecture-wide cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cases of emerging infectious diseases, including H5N1 influenza, H7N9 influenza, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, have been reported in recent years, and the threat of pandemic outbreaks persists. In Japan, primary care is the frontline against emerging infectious diseases in communities. Although the importance of pandemic preparedness in primary care has been highlighted previously, few studies have thus far investigated the preparedness among primary care practices (PCPs) or differences in the preparedness of different institutional settings. We examined PCP preparedness and response to the 2009 influenza pandemic in Japan, and explored the role of a pandemic preparedness plan during the pandemic. Methods We used a survey questionnaire to assess how well individual PCPs in Okinawa, Japan, were prepared for the 2009 influenza pandemic. The questionnaire was mailed to all eligible PCPs (N = 465) in Okinawa, regardless of their institutional setting. In addition, we assessed the differences in the preparedness of clinics and hospitals and determined whether the national preparedness plan affected individual preparedness and response. Data were analyzed using descriptive and logistic regression analyses. Results A total of 174 (37.4%) PCPs responded to our survey. In general, high-level personal protective equipment (PPE) such as N95 masks (45.4%), gowns (30.5%), and eye protection (21.3%) was stocked at a low rate. Clinic-based PCPs were significantly less prepared than hospital-based PCPs to provide N95 masks (OR 0.34), gowns (OR 0.15), and eye protection (OR 0.18). In addition, only 32.8% of PCPs adopted an adequate business continuity plan (BCP). After controlling for institutional setting, reading the national preparedness plan was significantly associated with establishment of a BCP (OR 5.86), and with knowledge of how to transfer a swab specimen to a local medical laboratory (OR 5.60). Conclusions With regard to PPE availability, PCPs (especially clinic-based PCPs) were not adequately prepared for the influenza pandemic. Awareness of the national pandemic preparedness plan is likely to promote prefecture-wide implementation of BCPs and surveillance activity. PMID:24252688

Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu'): diagnostic and other challenges.

PubMed

Burkardt, Hans-Joachim

2011-01-01

Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu') virus was 'the virus of the year 2009' because it affected the lives of many people in this year. H1N1 was first described in California in April 2009 and spread very rapidly all over the globe. The fast global penetration of the swine flu caused the WHO in Geneva to call the infection with H1N1 a new pandemic with a rapid escalation of the different pandemic phases that ended on 11 June 2009, with the declaration of phase 6 (full-blown pandemic). This had far-reaching consequences for the local health authorities in the different affected countries and created awareness in the public and fear in the experts and even more so in many lay people. The consequences were: setting up reliable diagnostic tests as soon as possible; enhanced production, distribution and stock creation of the few drugs that were available to treat newly infected persons; and development, production, distribution and stock creation of new and appropriate anti-H1N1 swine flu vaccines. This all resulted in enormous costs in the local healthcare systems and also required smart and diligent logistics, because demand for all this was, in most cases, much higher than availability. Fortunately, the pandemic ended quite quickly (there was no 'second wave' as had been anticipated by some experts) and the death toll was moderate, compared with other influenza pandemic in the past and even to the regular annual appearance of the seasonal flu. This favorable outcome, however, provoked some harsh criticism that the WHO and healthcare systems in general had over-reacted and by doing so, a lot of money was thrown out of the window. This article describes the history of the H1N1 pandemic, the diagnostic challenges and resolutions, touches on treatment and vaccination very briefly and also comments on the criticism and arguments that came up immediately at the end and following the termination of the pandemic situation.

Characterizing the Epidemiology of the 2009 Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Tamerius, James; Miller, Mark A.; Borja-Aburto, Víctor H.

2011-01-01

Background Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. Methods and Findings We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8–2.1, 1.6–1.9, and 1.2–1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%–37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases. Conclusions We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21629683

The Avian-Origin PB1 Gene Segment Facilitated Replication and Transmissibility of the H3N2/1968 Pandemic Influenza Virus

PubMed Central

Wendel, Isabel; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Doedt, Jennifer; Kochs, Georg; Wilhelm, Jochen; Staeheli, Peter; Klenk, Hans-Dieter

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT The H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza viruses emerged via the exchange of genomic RNA segments between human and avian viruses. The avian hemagglutinin (HA) allowed the hybrid viruses to escape preexisting immunity in the human population. Both pandemic viruses further received the PB1 gene segment from the avian parent (Y. Kawaoka, S. Krauss, and R. G. Webster, J Virol 63:4603–4608, 1989), but the biological significance of this observation was not understood. To assess whether the avian-origin PB1 segment provided pandemic viruses with some selective advantage, either on its own or via cooperation with the homologous HA segment, we modeled by reverse genetics the reassortment event that led to the emergence of the H3N2/1968 pandemic virus. Using seasonal H2N2 virus A/California/1/66 (Cal) as a surrogate precursor human virus and pandemic virus A/Hong Kong/1/68 (H3N2) (HK) as a source of avian-derived PB1 and HA gene segments, we generated four reassortant recombinant viruses and compared pairs of viruses which differed solely by the origin of PB1. Replacement of the PB1 segment of Cal by PB1 of HK facilitated viral polymerase activity, replication efficiency in human cells, and contact transmission in guinea pigs. A combination of PB1 and HA segments of HK did not enhance replicative fitness of the reassortant virus compared with the single-gene PB1 reassortant. Our data suggest that the avian PB1 segment of the 1968 pandemic virus served to enhance viral growth and transmissibility, likely by enhancing activity of the viral polymerase complex. IMPORTANCE Despite the high impact of influenza pandemics on human health, some mechanisms underlying the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses still are poorly understood. Thus, it was unclear why both H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 reassortant pandemic viruses contained, in addition to the avian HA, the PB1 gene segment of the avian parent. Here, we addressed this long-standing question by modeling the emergence of the H3N2/1968 virus from its putative human and avian precursors. We show that the avian PB1 segment increased activity of the viral polymerase and facilitated viral replication. Our results suggest that in addition to the acquisition of antigenically novel HA (i.e., antigenic shift), enhanced viral polymerase activity is required for the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses from their seasonal human precursors. PMID:25631088

The avian-origin PB1 gene segment facilitated replication and transmissibility of the H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza virus.

PubMed

Wendel, Isabel; Rubbenstroth, Dennis; Doedt, Jennifer; Kochs, Georg; Wilhelm, Jochen; Staeheli, Peter; Klenk, Hans-Dieter; Matrosovich, Mikhail

2015-04-01

The H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 pandemic influenza viruses emerged via the exchange of genomic RNA segments between human and avian viruses. The avian hemagglutinin (HA) allowed the hybrid viruses to escape preexisting immunity in the human population. Both pandemic viruses further received the PB1 gene segment from the avian parent (Y. Kawaoka, S. Krauss, and R. G. Webster, J Virol 63:4603-4608, 1989), but the biological significance of this observation was not understood. To assess whether the avian-origin PB1 segment provided pandemic viruses with some selective advantage, either on its own or via cooperation with the homologous HA segment, we modeled by reverse genetics the reassortment event that led to the emergence of the H3N2/1968 pandemic virus. Using seasonal H2N2 virus A/California/1/66 (Cal) as a surrogate precursor human virus and pandemic virus A/Hong Kong/1/68 (H3N2) (HK) as a source of avian-derived PB1 and HA gene segments, we generated four reassortant recombinant viruses and compared pairs of viruses which differed solely by the origin of PB1. Replacement of the PB1 segment of Cal by PB1 of HK facilitated viral polymerase activity, replication efficiency in human cells, and contact transmission in guinea pigs. A combination of PB1 and HA segments of HK did not enhance replicative fitness of the reassortant virus compared with the single-gene PB1 reassortant. Our data suggest that the avian PB1 segment of the 1968 pandemic virus served to enhance viral growth and transmissibility, likely by enhancing activity of the viral polymerase complex. Despite the high impact of influenza pandemics on human health, some mechanisms underlying the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses still are poorly understood. Thus, it was unclear why both H2N2/1957 and H3N2/1968 reassortant pandemic viruses contained, in addition to the avian HA, the PB1 gene segment of the avian parent. Here, we addressed this long-standing question by modeling the emergence of the H3N2/1968 virus from its putative human and avian precursors. We show that the avian PB1 segment increased activity of the viral polymerase and facilitated viral replication. Our results suggest that in addition to the acquisition of antigenically novel HA (i.e., antigenic shift), enhanced viral polymerase activity is required for the emergence of pandemic influenza viruses from their seasonal human precursors. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

[Ethical principles of management and planning during influenza pandemic].

PubMed

Kubar', O I; Asatrian, A Zh

2012-01-01

The article is dedicated to an actual problem of ethical component inclusion into the system of management and planning of epidemic control measures during threat emergence and in the course of influenza pandemic (epidemic) progress. Data regarding development of international ethical guidelines during influenza including WHO recommendations are presented and analysis of normative documents in Russian Federation is given. A necessity of comprehension and accounting of ethical values in pandemic preparedness is shown, main directions of action and responsibility are revealed. Key ethical positions of planning and implementation of measures during influenza pandemic are outlined, compliance with those determines the level of public support and thus provides the effectiveness of the implemented measures.

Secondary Bacterial Infections Associated with Influenza Pandemics

PubMed Central

Morris, Denise E.; Cleary, David W.; Clarke, Stuart C.

2017-01-01

Lower and upper respiratory infections are the fourth highest cause of global mortality (Lozano et al., 2012). Epidemic and pandemic outbreaks of respiratory infection are a major medical concern, often causing considerable disease and a high death toll, typically over a relatively short period of time. Influenza is a major cause of epidemic and pandemic infection. Bacterial co/secondary infection further increases morbidity and mortality of influenza infection, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, and Staphylococcus aureus reported as the most common causes. With increased antibiotic resistance and vaccine evasion it is important to monitor the epidemiology of pathogens in circulation to inform clinical treatment and development, particularly in the setting of an influenza epidemic/pandemic. PMID:28690590

The Vagaries Of Public Support For Government Actions In Case Of A Pandemic

PubMed Central

Hilyard, Karen M.; Freimuth, Vicki S.; Musa, Donald; Kumar, Supriya; Quinn, Sandra Crouse

2011-01-01

Government health measures in a pandemic are effective only with strong support and compliance from the public. A survey of 1,583 US adults early in the 2009 H1N1 (swine influenza) pandemic shows surprisingly mixed support for possible government efforts to control the spread of the disease, with strong support for more extreme measures such as closing borders and weak support for more basic, and potentially more effective, policies such as encouraging sick people to stay home from work. The results highlight challenges that public health officials and policy makers must address in formulating strategies to respond to a pandemic before a more severe outbreak occurs. PMID:21134932

Pandemic Influenza Planning, United States, 1978–2008

PubMed Central

Strikas, Raymond A.; Gensheimer, Kathleen F.; Cox, Nancy J.; Redd, Stephen C.

2013-01-01

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community’s response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises. PMID:23731839

Exploring national surveillance for health-related workplace absenteeism: lessons learned from the 2009 influenza A pandemic.

PubMed

Groenewold, Matthew R; Konicki, Doris L; Luckhaupt, Sara E; Gomaa, Ahmed; Koonin, Lisa M

2013-04-01

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did a pilot study to test the feasibility of using national surveillance of workplace absenteeism to assess the pandemic's impact on the workplace to plan for preparedness and continuity of operations and to contribute to health awareness during the emergency response. Population-based and sentinel worksite approaches were used. Monthly measures of the 1-week prevalence of health-related absenteeism among full-time workers were estimated using nationally representative data from the Current Population Survey. Enhanced passive surveillance of absenteeism was conducted using weekly data from a convenience sample of sentinel worksites. Nationally, the pandemic's impact on workplace absenteeism was small. Estimates of 1-week absenteeism prevalence did not exceed 3.7%. However, peak workplace absenteeism was correlated with the highest occurrence of both influenza-like illness and influenza-positive laboratory tests. Systems for monitoring workplace absenteeism should be included in pandemic preparedness planning.

The macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza: estimates from models of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands.

PubMed

Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard; Smith, Richard D; Edmunds, John W; Beutels, Philippe

2010-12-01

The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) showed that infectious disease outbreaks can have notable macroeconomic impacts. The current H1N1 and potential H5N1 flu pandemics could have a much greater impact. Using a multi-sector single country computable general equilibrium model of the United Kingdom, France, Belgium and The Netherlands, together with disease scenarios of varying severity, we examine the potential economic cost of a modern pandemic. Policies of school closure, vaccination and antivirals, together with prophylactic absence from work are evaluated and their cost impacts are estimated. Results suggest GDP losses from the disease of approximately 0.5-2% but school closure and prophylactic absenteeism more than triples these effects. Increasing school closures from 4 weeks at the peak to entire pandemic closure almost doubles the economic cost, but antivirals and vaccinations seem worthwhile. Careful planning is therefore important to ensure expensive policies to mitigate the pandemic are effective in minimising illness and deaths.

Simulation to assess the efficacy of US airport entry scrreening of passengers for pandemic influenza

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcmahon, Benjamin

2009-01-01

We present our methodology and stochastic discrete-event simulation developed to model the screening of passengers for pandemic influenza at the US port-of-entry airports. Our model uniquely combines epidemiology modelling, evolving infected states and conditions of passengers over time, and operational considerations of screening in a single simulation. The simulation begins with international aircraft arrivals to the US. Passengers are then randomly assigned to one of three states -- not infected, infected with pandemic influenza and infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers then pass through various screening layers (i.e. pre-departure screening, en route screening, primary screening and secondary screening) and ultimatelymore » exit the system. We track the status of each passenger over time, with a special emphasis on false negatives (i.e. passengers infected with pandemic influenza, but are not identified as such) as these passengers pose a significant threat as they could unknowingly spread the pandemic influenza virus throughout our nation.« less

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

PubMed

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

Emerging influenza viruses and the prospect of a universal influenza virus vaccine.

PubMed

Krammer, Florian

2015-05-01

Influenza viruses cause annual seasonal epidemics and pandemics at irregular intervals. Several cases of human infections with avian and swine influenza viruses have been detected recently, warranting enhanced surveillance and the development of more effective countermeasures to address the pandemic potential of these viruses. The most effective countermeasure against influenza virus infection is the use of prophylactic vaccines. However, vaccines that are currently in use for seasonal influenza viruses have to be re-formulated and re-administered in a cumbersome process every year due to the antigenic drift of the virus. Furthermore, current seasonal vaccines are ineffective against novel pandemic strains. This paper reviews zoonotic influenza viruses with pandemic potential and technological advances towards better vaccines that induce broad and long lasting protection from influenza virus infection. Recent efforts have focused on the development of broadly protective/universal influenza virus vaccines that can provide immunity against drifted seasonal influenza virus strains but also against potential pandemic viruses. Copyright © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The 2009 pandemic in Mexico: Experience and lessons regarding national preparedness policies for seasonal and epidemic influenza.

PubMed

Cordova-Villalobos, Jose A; Macias, Alejandro E; Hernandez-Avila, Mauricio; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Lopez-Gatell, Hugo; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia; Ponce de León-Rosales, Samuel

2017-01-01

Influenza is a viral respiratory disease capable of causing epidemics that represent a threat for global security. Mexico was the first country to notify the WHO of an outbreak of what later became the first influenza pandemic of the 21st Century, caused by the virus A(H1N1)2009. Before this event Mexico had a national pandemic influenza preparedness plan, which included seasonal influenza vaccination, stockpiles of personal protection equipment and strategic drugs, and risk communication strategies. During the epidemic, the national public health laboratory network and case surveillance systems were strengthened together with surge capacities for intensive care and delivery of antiviral drugs. Risk communication was conducted for people to comply with implemented measures regarding social distancing (workplace and school closures, household quarantine). This report describes the Mexican experience during the 2009 influenza pandemic and the lessons that this experience provides to public health preparedness for future pandemics.

Deciphering the Swine-Flu Pandemics of 1918 and 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Richard; Dos Reis, Mario; Tamuri, Asif; Hay, Alan

The devastating "Spanish flu" of 1918 killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, ranking it as the deadliest pandemic in recorded human history. It is generally believed that the virus transferred from birds directly to humans shortly before the start of the pandemic, subsequently jumping from humans to swine. By developing 'non-homogeneous' substitution models that consider that substitution patterns may be different in human, avian, and swine hosts, we can determine the timing of the host shift to mammals. We find it likely that the Spanish flu of 1918, like the current 2009 pandemic, was a 'swine-origin' influenza virus. Now that we are faced with a new pandemic, can we understand how influenza is able to change hosts? Again by modelling the evolutionary process, considering the different selective constraints for viruses in the different hosts, we can identify locations that seem to be under different selective constraints in humans and avian hosts. This allows us to identify changes that may have facilitated the establishment of the 2009 swine-origin flu in humans.

The first influenza pandemic of the new millennium

PubMed Central

Neumann, Gabriele; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

2011-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Neumann G, Kawaoka Y. (2011) The first influenza pandemic of the new millennium. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/j.1750‐2659.2011.00202.x. In the spring of 2009, a novel influenza A virus of the H1N1 subtype emerged that transmitted efficiently among humans; by June of 2009, the outbreak reached pandemic status. The pandemic virus possesses six viral RNA segments from so‐called triple reassortant swine viruses that emerged in North American pig populations in the late 1990s and two viral RNA segments from Eurasian avian‐like swine influenza viruses. Most human infections with the virus have been mild; however, severe and fatal infections occurred among certain risk groups, but also among those without any known risk factors. Here, we summarize the evolutionary, epidemiological, clinical, and molecular findings on the pandemic virus. We also discuss the arsenal of antiviral compounds and vaccines available to prevent and treat infections with the virus. PMID:21477134

Identification of reassortant pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in Korean pigs.

PubMed

Han, Jae Yeon; Park, Sung Jun; Kim, Hye Kwon; Rho, Semi; Nguyen, Giap Van; Song, Daesub; Kang, Bo Kyu; Moon, Hyung Jun; Yeom, Min Joo; Park, Bong Kyun

2012-05-01

Since the 2009 pandemic human H1N1 influenza A virus emerged in April 2009, novel reassortant strains have been identified throughout the world. This paper describes the detection and isolation of reassortant strains associated with human pandemic influenza H1N1 and swine influenza H1N2 (SIV) viruses in swine populations in South Korea. Two influenza H1N2 reassortants were detected, and subtyped by PCR. The strains were isolated using Madin- Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells, and genetically characterized by phylogenetic analysis for genetic diversity. They consisted of human, avian, and swine virus genes that were originated from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus and a neuraminidase (NA) gene from H1N2 SIV previously isolated in North America. This identification of reassortment events in swine farms raises concern that reassortant strains may continuously circulate within swine populations, calling for the further study and surveillance of pandemic H1N1 among swine.

Pandemic influenza and health system resource gaps in Bali: an analysis through a resource transmission dynamics model.

PubMed

Adisasmito, Wiku; Hunter, Benjamin M; Krumkamp, Ralf; Latief, Kamal; Rudge, James W; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Coker, Richard J

2015-03-01

The failure to contain pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Mexico has shifted global attention from containment to mitigation. Limited surveillance and reporting have, however, prevented detailed assessment of mitigation during the pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To assess pandemic influenza case management capabilities in a resource-limited setting, the authors used a health system questionnaire and density-dependent, deterministic transmission model for Bali, Indonesia, determining resource gaps. The majority of health resources were focused in and around the provincial capital, Denpasar; however, gaps are found in every district for nursing staff, surgical masks, and N95 masks. A relatively low pathogenicity pandemic influenza virus would see an overall surplus for physicians, antivirals, and antimicrobials; however, a more pathogenic virus would lead to gaps in every resource except antimicrobials. Resources could be allocated more evenly across Bali. These, however, are in short supply universally and therefore redistribution would not fill resource gaps. © 2011 APJPH.

Prediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis

PubMed Central

Morse, Stephen S; Mazet, Jonna A K; Woolhouse, Mark; Parrish, Colin R; Carroll, Dennis; Karesh, William B; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Lipkin, W Ian; Daszak, Peter

2013-01-01

Most pandemics—eg, HIV/AIDS, severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza—originate in animals, are caused by viruses, and are driven to emerge by ecological, behavioural, or socioeconomic changes. Despite their substantial effects on global public health and growing understanding of the process by which they emerge, no pandemic has been predicted before infecting human beings. We review what is known about the pathogens that emerge, the hosts that they originate in, and the factors that drive their emergence. We discuss challenges to their control and new efforts to predict pandemics, target surveillance to the most crucial interfaces, and identify prevention strategies. New mathematical modelling, diagnostic, communications, and informatics technologies can identify and report hitherto unknown microbes in other species, and thus new risk assessment approaches are needed to identify microbes most likely to cause human disease. We lay out a series of research and surveillance opportunities and goals that could help to overcome these challenges and move the global pandemic strategy from response to pre-emption. PMID:23200504

Measures against transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan in 2009: simulation model.

PubMed

Yasuda, H; Suzuki, K

2009-11-05

The first outbreak of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Japan was contained in the Kansai region in May 2009 by social distancing measures. Modelling methods are needed to estimate the validity of these measures before their implementation on a large scale. We estimated the transmission coefficient from outbreaks of pandemic H1N1 influenza among school children in Japan in summer 2009; using this transmission coefficient, we simulated the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza in a virtual community called the virtual Chuo Line which models an area to the west of metropolitan Tokyo. Measures evaluated in our simulation included: isolation at home, school closure, post-exposure prophylaxis and mass vaccinations of school children. We showed that post-exposure prophylaxis combined with isolation at home and school closure significantly decreases the total number of cases in the community and can mitigate the spread of pandemic H1N1 influenza, even when there is a delay in the availability of vaccine.

The Pandemic Pendulum: A Critical Analysis of Federal and State Preparedness for a Pandemic Event

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

of employee illness and absenteeism , coupled with the closely meshed and interdependent systems of trade and commerce.18 WHO also proclaimed it...outbreak of Ebola, a naturally occurring pathogen with no known cure .20 The manifestation of Pandemic Influenza in Indonesia and Ebola in Congo are but...event of significant and sustained absenteeism ? (Transportation) Does the state anticipate need for supplementation of local government

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and Hajj Pilgrims Who Received Predeparture Vaccination, Egypt

PubMed Central

Kandeel, Amr; Abdel Kereem, Eman; El-Refay, Samir; Afifi, Salma; Abukela, Mohammed; Earhart, Kenneth; El-Sayed, Nasr; El-Gabaly, Hatem

2011-01-01

In Egypt, vaccination against pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was required of pilgrims departing for the 2009 Hajj. A survey of 551 pilgrims as they returned to Egypt found 542 (98.1% [weighted]) reported receiving the vaccine; 6 (1.0% [weighted]) were infected with influenza virus A (H3N2) but none with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. PMID:21762583

Early Detection of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Rahman, Mustafizur; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Haider, Mohammad Sabbir; Zaman, Rashid Uz; Karmakar, Polash Chandra; Nasreen, Sharifa; Muneer, Syeda Mah-E; Homaira, Nusrat; Goswami, Doli Rani; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Husain, Mohammad Mushtuq; Jamil, Khondokar Mahbuba; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Chakraborty, Apurba; Fry, Alicia; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Bresee, Joseph; Azim, Tasnim; Alamgir, A.S.M.; Brooks, Abdullah; Hossain, Mohamed Jahangir; Klimov, Alexander; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P.

2012-01-01

To explore Bangladesh’s ability to detect novel influenza, we examined a series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases. During June–July 2009, event-based surveillance identified 30 case-patients (57% travelers); starting July 29, sentinel sites identified 252 case-patients (1% travelers). Surveillance facilitated response weeks before the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection to the general population. PMID:22257637

The 2009 Influenza Pandemic: An Overview

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-15

to receive the pandemic vaccine nonetheless. 42 See, for example, the figure by Sanofi Pasteur (a flu vaccine manufacturer), “A(H1N1) Vaccine ...made by four companies: Sanofi Pasteur Inc., CSL Limited, Novartis Vaccines and Diagnostics Limited, and MedImmune LLC.46 The first three products...officials have procured millions of doses of pandemic flu vaccine , and have begun a voluntary nationwide vaccination program. It is being coordinated

Facing a Health Threat in a Complex Information Environment: A National Representative Survey Examining American Adults' Behavioral Responses to the 2009/2010 A(H1N1) Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Leesa; McCloud, Rachel F.; Jung, Minsoo; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2018-01-01

Background: Recent A(H1N1) studies suggest that intrapersonal and interpersonal factors may exert influence on people's preventive behaviors for avoiding the flu during pandemics. Aims: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccinations play key roles in containing disease transmission during a pandemic. We examined how intrapersonal and…

Just-in-time training of dental responders in a simulated pandemic immunization response exercise.

PubMed

Colvard, Michael D; Hirst, Jeremy L; Vesper, Benjamin J; DeTella, George E; Tsagalis, Mila P; Roberg, Mary J; Peters, David E; Wallace, Jimmy D; James, James J

2014-06-01

The reauthorization of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act in 2013 incorporated the dental profession and dental professionals into the federal legislation governing public health response to pandemics and all-hazard situations. Work is now necessary to expand the processes needed to incorporate and train oral health care professionals into pandemic and all-hazard response events. A just-in-time (JIT) training exercise and immunization drill using an ex vivo porcine model system was conducted to demonstrate the rapidity to which dental professionals can respond to a pandemic influenza scenario. Medical history documentation, vaccination procedures, and patient throughput and error rates of 15 dental responders were evaluated by trained nursing staff and emergency response personnel. The average throughput (22.33/hr) and medical error rates (7 of 335; 2.08%) of the dental responders were similar to those found in analogous influenza mass vaccination clinics previously conducted using certified public health nurses. The dental responder immunization drill validated the capacity and capability of dental professionals to function as a valuable immunization resource. The ex vivo porcine model system used for JIT training can serve as a simple and inexpensive training tool to update pandemic responders' immunization techniques and procedures supporting inoculation protocols.

The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

2005-08-11

Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88%) would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%), and then premature death (4%). Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64%) of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%), hospitalisation (4%), and then premature death (1%). Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

[Epidemics and pandemics in general practice. What can we learn from the swine flu (H1N1) and EHEC outbreak?].

PubMed

Eisele, M; Hansen, H; Wagner, H-O; von Leitner, E; Pohontsch, N; Scherer, M

2014-06-01

As primary care givers with a coordinating function, general practitioners (GP) play a key role in dealing with epidemics and pandemics. As of yet, there are no studies in Germany describing the difficulties experienced by GPs in patient care during epidemics/pandemics. This study aimed at identifying the problem areas in GPs' patient care during the H1N1 and EHEC (enterohemorrhagic strain of Escherichia coli) outbreaks. With this information, recommendations for guaranteeing proper patient care during future epidemics/pandemics can be derived. In all, 12 qualitative, semi-structured, open guideline interviews with GPs in Hamburg and Lübeck were conducted, transcribed, and evaluated with qualitative content analysis. Five areas in ambulatory patient care were identified in which changes are needed from the primary care perspective: provision of information for GPs, workload, financing of epidemic-related measures, organization of the practices, care of those taken ill. The workload of GPs in particular can and should be reduced through successful, centralized information distribution during epidemics/pandemics. The GP's function as a coordinator should be supported and consolidated, in order to relieve the in-patient sector in cases of an epidemic/pandemic. Secured financing of epidemic-associated measures can help ensure patient care.

Pandemic Influenza Planning in Nursing Homes: Are We Prepared?

PubMed Central

Mody, Lona; Cinti, Sandro

2012-01-01

Avian influenza or Influenza A (H5N1) is caused by a viral strain that occurs naturally in wild birds, but to which humans are immunologically naïve. If an influenza pandemic occurs, it is expected to have dire consequences, including millions of deaths, social disruption, and enormous economic consequences. The Department of Health and Human Resources plan, released in November 2005, clearly affirms the threat of a pandemic. Anticipating a disruption in many factions of society, every segment of the healthcare industry, including nursing homes, will be affected and will need to be self-sufficient. Disruption of vaccine distribution during the seasonal influenza vaccine shortage during the 2004/05 influenza season is but one example of erratic emergency planning. Nursing homes will have to make vital decisions and provide care to older adults who will not be on the initial priority list for vaccine. At the same time, nursing homes will face an anticipated shortage of antiviral medications and be expected to provide surge capacity for overwhelmed hospitals. This article provides an overview of current recommendations for pandemic preparedness and the potential effect of a pandemic on the nursing home industry. It highlights the need for collaborative planning and dialogue between nursing homes and various stakeholders already heavily invested in pandemic preparedness. PMID:17767687

Multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis of 7th pandemic Vibrio cholerae

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Seven pandemics of cholera have been recorded since 1817, with the current and ongoing pandemic affecting almost every continent. Cholera remains endemic in developing countries and is still a significant public health issue. In this study we use multilocus variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs) analysis (MLVA) to discriminate between isolates of the 7th pandemic clone of Vibrio cholerae. Results MLVA of six VNTRs selected from previously published data distinguished 66 V. cholerae isolates collected between 1961–1999 into 60 unique MLVA profiles. Only 4 MLVA profiles consisted of more than 2 isolates. The discriminatory power was 0.995. Phylogenetic analysis showed that, except for the closely related profiles, the relationships derived from MLVA profiles were in conflict with that inferred from Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) typing. The six SNP groups share consensus VNTR patterns and two SNP groups contained isolates which differed by only one VNTR locus. Conclusions MLVA is highly discriminatory in differentiating 7th pandemic V. cholerae isolates and MLVA data was most useful in resolving the genetic relationships among isolates within groups previously defined by SNPs. Thus MLVA is best used in conjunction with SNP typing in order to best determine the evolutionary relationships among the 7th pandemic V. cholerae isolates and for longer term epidemiological typing. PMID:22624829

Hospital capacity and management preparedness for pandemic influenza in Victoria.

PubMed

Dewar, Ben; Barr, Ian; Robinson, Priscilla

2014-04-01

This study was designed to investigate acute hospital pandemic influenza preparedness in Victoria, Australia, particularly focussing on planning and management efforts. A prospective study was conducted by questionnaire and semi-structured interview of health managers across the Victorian hospital system from July to October 2011. Participants with responsibility for emergency management, planning and operations were selected from every hospital in Victoria with an emergency department to complete a questionnaire (response rate 22/43 = 51%). Each respondent was invited to participate in a phone-based semi-structured interview (response rate 11/22 = 50%). Rural/regional hospitals demonstrated higher levels of clinical (86%) and non-clinical (86%) staff contingency planning than metropolitan hospitals (60% and 40% respectively). Pandemic plans were not being sufficiently tested in exercises or drills, which is likely to undermine their effectiveness. All respondents reported hand hygiene and standard precautions programs in place, although only one-third (33%) of metropolitan respondents and no rural/regional respondents reported being able to meet patient needs with high levels of staff absenteeism. Almost half Victoria's healthcare workers were unvaccinated against influenza. Hospitals across Victoria demonstrated different levels of influenza pandemic preparedness and planning. If a more severe influenza pandemic than that of 2009 arose, Victorian hospitals would struggle with workforce and infrastructure problems, particularly in rural/regional areas. Staff absenteeism threatens to undermine hospital pandemic responses. Various strategies, including education and communication, should be included with in-service training to provide staff with confidence in their ability to work safely during a future pandemic. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

Comparative Characteristics of the 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and 2010-2011 Seasonal Influenza in Pediatric Patients.

PubMed

Nasrallah, Najwan; Shachor-Meyouhas, Yael; Kra-Oz, Zipi; Mashiach, Tania; Szwarcwort-Cohen, Moran; Shafran, Eynat; Kassis, Imad

2016-12-01

In March 2009 the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) strain was identified. The disease initially appeared to be accompanied by complications and high mortality rates. It became an endemic virus during the influenza season in our region, along with the classical seasonal H3N2. To identify the burden of pandemic influenza, its effect in pediatric patients, and complicated hospitalizations, compared to seasonal influenza years after the pandemic. A retrospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary hospital. Data were collected from the medical records of all children who were hospitalized from April 2009 to 2011 with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Of 191 patients with influenza, 100 had the 2009 pandemic influenza, 62 had seasonal influenza, and 29 had H1N1 in 2010-2011. Patients with the 2009 H1N1 were characterized by older age, more co-morbidity conditions and more symptoms including fever, cough and rhinitis on admission. No significant differences in outcomes between the groups were recorded. Of patients hospitalized with pandemic influenza in 2009, 28% had complicated hospitalizations, compared with 17.7% of patients hospitalized with seasonal influenza in 2010-11. Children with pandemic influenza received more oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) (94% vs. 19.4%, P < 0.001) and more antibiotics than the other groups. The type of influenza had no effect on outcome. There were no significant differences between groups in the percentages of in-hospital mortality, admission to intensive care units, prolonged hospitalization (> 9 days), or the development of complications during hospitalization.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine: an update.

PubMed

Goel, M K; Goel, M; Khanna, P; Mittal, K

2011-01-01

The world witnessed a the first influenza pandemic in this century and fourth overall since first flu pandemic was reported during the World War I. The past experiences with influenza viruses and this pandemic of H1N1 place a consider-able strain on health services and resulted in serious illnesses and a large number of deaths. Develop-ing countries were declared more likely to be at risk from the pandemic effects, as they faced the dual problem of highly vulnerable populations and limited resources to respond H1N1. The public health experts agreed that vaccination is the most effective ways to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic. The vaccines for H1N1 virus have been used in over 40 countries and administered to over 200 million people helped in a great way and on August 10, 2010, World Health Organization (WHO) announced H1N1 to be in postpandemic period. But based on knowledge about past pandemics, the H1N1 (2009) virus is expected to continue to circulate as a seasonal virus and may undergo some agenic-variation. As WHO strongly recommends vaccination, vigilance for regular updating of the composition of influenza vaccines, based on an assessment of the future impact of circulating viruses along with safety surveillance of the vaccines is necessary. This review has been done to take a stock of the currently available H1N1 vaccines and their possible use as public health intervention in the postpandemic period.

Incidence of Narcolepsy in Germany.

PubMed

Oberle, Doris; Drechsel-Bäuerle, Ursula; Schmidtmann, Irene; Mayer, Geert; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

2015-10-01

Following the 2009 pandemic, reports of an association between an AS03 adjuvanted H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine and narcolepsy were published. Besides determining background incidence rates for narcolepsy in Germany this study aimed at investigating whether there was a change in incidence rates of narcolepsy between the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and the post-pandemic period on the population level. Retrospective epidemiological study on the incidence of narcolepsy with additional capture-recapture analysis. German sleep centers. Eligible were patients with an initial diagnosis of narcolepsy (ICD10 Code G47.4) within the period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2011. None; observational study. A total of 342 sleep centers were invited to participate in the study. Adequate and suitable data were provided by 233 sleep centers (68.1%). A total of 1,198 patients with an initial diagnosis of narcolepsy within the observed period were included, of whom 106 (8.8%) were children and adolescents under the age of 18 years and 1,092 (91.2%) were adults. In children and adolescents, the age-standardized adjusted incidence rate significantly increased from 0.14/100,000 person-years in the pre-pandemic period to 0.50/100,000 person-years in the post-pandemic period (incidence density ratio, IDR 3.57; 95% CI 1.94-7.00). In adults, no significant change was detectable. This increase started in spring 2009. For the years 2007-2011, valid estimates for the incidence of narcolepsy in Germany were provided. In individuals under 18, the incidence rates continuously increased from spring 2009. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Barnett, Tony; Tait, Joyce

2009-11-19

To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product ( pound8.4bn to pound16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% ( pound55.5bn to pound72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product ( pound2.2bn to pound38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% ( pound5.0bn to pound72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Balancing school closure against "business as usual" and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.

Value for Money in H1N1 Influenza: A Systematic Review of the Cost-Effectiveness of Pandemic Interventions.

PubMed

Pasquini-Descomps, Hélène; Brender, Nathalie; Maradan, David

2017-06-01

The 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic generated additional data and triggered new studies that opened debate over the optimal strategy for handling a pandemic. The lessons-learned documents from the World Health Organization show the need for a cost estimation of the pandemic response during the risk-assessment phase. Several years after the crisis, what conclusions can we draw from this field of research? The main objective of this article was to provide an analysis of the studies that present cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses for A/H1N1 pandemic interventions since 2009 and to identify which measures seem most cost-effective. We reviewed 18 academic articles that provide cost-effectiveness or cost-benefit analyses for A/H1N1 pandemic interventions since 2009. Our review converts the studies' results into a cost-utility measure (cost per disability-adjusted life-year or quality-adjusted life-year) and presents the contexts of severity and fatality. The existing studies suggest that hospital quarantine, vaccination, and usage of the antiviral stockpile are highly cost-effective, even for mild pandemics. However, school closures, antiviral treatments, and social distancing may not qualify as efficient measures, for a virus like 2009's H1N1 and a willingness-to-pay threshold of $45,000 per disability-adjusted life-year. Such interventions may become cost-effective for severe crises. This study helps to shed light on the cost-utility of various interventions, and may support decision making, among other criteria, for future pandemics. Nonetheless, one should consider these results carefully, considering these may not apply to a specific crisis or country, and a dedicated cost-effectiveness assessment should be conducted at the time. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Major tdh(+)Vibrio parahaemolyticus serotype changes temporally in the Bay of Bengal estuary of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Akther, Farhana; Neogi, Sucharit Basu; Chowdhury, Wasimul B; Sadique, Abdus; Islam, Atiqul; Akhter, Marufa Zerin; Johura, Fatema-Tuz; Ohnishi, Makoto; Watanabe, Haruo; Boucher, Yan; Alam, Munirul

2016-07-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is responsible for seafood-related gastroenteritis worldwide. In Bangladesh, diarrhea is endemic and diarrheagenic V. parahaemolyticus serotypes occur naturally in the coastal and estuarine aquatic environment. V. parahaemolyticus strains, isolated from estuarine surface water of the Bay of Bengal villages of Bangladesh during 2006-2008, were tested for the presence of virulence and pandemic-marker genes, serodiversity, and phylogenetic relatedness. PCR analysis of V. parahaemolyticus (n=175) showed 53 (30.3%) strains to possess tdh, the major virulence gene encoding thermostable direct hemolysin. Serotyping results revealed the tdh(+)V. parahaemolyticus strains to belong to 10 different serotypes, of which the O8:K21 (30.2%) and O3:K6 (24.5%) were predominantly non-pandemic and pandemic serotypes, respectively; while O5:K30 and O9:KUT were new. The pandemic markers, orf8 and toxRS(variant), were present only in the pandemic serotype O3:K6 (n=13) and its serovariant O4:K68 (n=2). Temporal distribution of the tdh(+) serotypes revealed the O8:K21 to be predominant in 2006 and 2007, while O3:K6 was the predominant tdh(+) serotype in 2008. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) of SfiI-digested genomic DNA revealed high genetic diversity among the V. parahaemolyticus strains, while dendrogram constructed with the PFGE patterns formed two major clusters separating the tdh(+) O3:K6 and its pandemic serovariants from the tdh(+) non-pandemic (O8:K21) strains, suggesting different lineages for them. The potential health risk related to the prevalent tdh(+) strains, including the observed temporal change of the predominant tdh(+) serotype, from O8:K21 to the pandemic serotype O3:K6 in estuarine surface waters serving as the major source of drinking water suggests the need for routine environmental monitoring to prevent V. parahaemolyticus infection in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling.

PubMed

Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Pugliese, Andrea; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-09-01

Influenza pandemics in the last century were characterized by successive waves and differences in impact and timing between different regions, for reasons not clearly understood. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic showed rapid global spread, but with substantial heterogeneity in timing within each hemisphere. Even within Europe substantial variation was observed, with the UK being unique in experiencing a major first wave of transmission in early summer and all other countries having a single major epidemic in the autumn/winter, with a West to East pattern of spread. Here we show that a microsimulation model, parameterised using data about H1N1pdm collected by the beginning of June 2009, explains the occurrence of two waves in UK and a single wave in the rest of Europe as a consequence of timing of H1N1pdm spread, fluxes of travels from US and Mexico, and timing of school vacations. The model provides a description of pandemic spread through Europe, depending on intra-European mobility patterns and socio-demographic structure of the European populations, which is in broad agreement with observed timing of the pandemic in different countries. Attack rates are predicted to depend on the socio-demographic structure, with age dependent attack rates broadly agreeing with available serological data. Results suggest that the observed heterogeneity can be partly explained by the between country differences in Europe: marked differences in school calendars, mobility patterns and sociodemographic structures. Moreover, higher susceptibility of children to infection played a key role in determining the epidemiology of the 2009 pandemic. Our work shows that it would have been possible to obtain a broad-brush prediction of timing of the European pandemic well before the autumn of 2009, much more difficult to achieve with simpler models or pre-pandemic parameterisation. This supports the use of models accounting for the structure of complex modern societies for giving insight to policy makers.

The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment

PubMed Central

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Barnett, Tony; Tait, Joyce

2009-01-01

Objectives To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. Design A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. Setting The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). Main outcome measures The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. Results The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product (£8.4bn to £16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% (£55.5bn to £72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product (£2.2bn to £38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% (£5.0bn to £72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Conclusion Balancing school closure against “business as usual” and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact. PMID:19926697

Pandemic preparedness: perceptions of vulnerable migrants in Thailand towards WHO-recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) constituted the principal public health response to the previous influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic and are one key area of ongoing preparation for future pandemics. Thailand is an important point of focus in terms of global pandemic preparedness and response due to its role as the major transportation hub for Southeast Asia, the endemic presence of multiple types of influenza, and its role as a major receiving country for migrants. Our aim was to collect information about vulnerable migrants’ perceptions of and ability to implement NPIs proposed by the WHO. We hope that this information will help us to gauge the capacity of this population to engage in pandemic preparedness and response efforts, and to identify potential barriers to NPI effectiveness. Methods A cross-sectional survey was performed. The study was conducted during the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic and included 801 migrant participants living in border areas thought to be high risk by the Thailand Ministry of Public Health. Data were collected by Migrant Community Health Workers using a 201-item interviewer-assisted questionnaire. Univariate descriptive analyses were conducted. Results With the exception of border measures, to which nearly all participants reported they would be adherent, attitudes towards recommended NPIs were generally negative or uncertain. Other potential barriers to NPI implementation include limited experience applying these interventions (e.g., using a thermometer, wearing a face mask) and inadequate hand washing and household disinfection practices. Conclusions Negative or ambivalent attitudes towards NPIs combined with other barriers identified suggest that vulnerable migrants in Thailand have a limited capacity to participate in pandemic preparedness efforts. This limited capacity likely puts migrants at risk of propagating the spread of a pandemic virus. Coordinated risk communication and public education are potential strategies that may reduce barriers to individual NPI implementation. PMID:24973943

Registry-Based Surveillance of Influenza-Associated Hospitalisations during the 2009 Influenza Pandemic in Denmark: The Hidden Burden on the Young

PubMed Central

Widgren, Katarina; Nielsen, Jens; Mølbak, Kåre

2010-01-01

Background To follow the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark, influenza surveillance was extended with a system monitoring potentially influenza-associated hospitalisations. Methodology/Principal Findings National administrative data from 2004–2010 from the automatic reporting of all hospital visits and admissions in Denmark (population 5.5 million) were used. In-patient hospitalisations linked to ICD-10 codes for potentially influenza-associated conditions (influenza, viral and bacterial pneumonia, respiratory distress, and febrile convulsion) were aggregated by week and age groups; <5 years, 5–24 years, 25–64 years and ≥65 years. Weekly numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations were plotted to follow the course of the pandemic. We calculated the total numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations in each influenza season (week 30 to week 15, the following year). Risk ratios of being admitted with an influenza-associated condition in this season (2009/2010) compared to the previous five seasons (2004/2005–2008/2009) were calculated using binary regression. During the pandemic season, influenza-associated hospitalisations peaked in week 47, 2009. The total number of influenza-associated hospitalisations was 38,273 compared to the median of previous seasons of 35,662 (p = 0.28). The risk ratio of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the pandemic season compared to previous seasons was 1.63 (95%CI 1.49–1.78) for 5–24 year-olds and ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 for the other three age groups. Conclusions The 2009 pandemic influenza did not lead to an overall increase in the number of influenza-associated hospitalisations in Denmark in the 2009/2010 season and could be managed within existing hospital capacity. However, there was a disproportionally large impact on the age group 5–24 years. The influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009/2010 pandemic influenza season bore the signature features of historical pandemics: A skewed age-pattern and early out of season transmission. PMID:21085646

Challenges and lessons learned from implementing a risk-based approach to school advice and closure during the containment phase of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the West Midlands, England.

PubMed

Awofisayo, A; Ibbotson, S; Smith, G E; Janmohamed, K; Mohamed, H; Olowokure, B

2013-07-01

School closure as a social distancing measure was used in some countries during the initial phases of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to describe the use of a risk-based approach to public health interventions for schools during the 'containment phase' of the pandemic and to describe lessons learnt. The development of a framework for risk assessment and decision-making to determine school closures in the West Midlands, England, during the 'containment phase' of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic is described. Using the framework developed during the 'containment phase', assessments were conducted for 344 educational institutions who reported confirmed cases or 'particularly high absenteeism'. Of these, 209 (60%) had confirmed cases and 65 were closed, mainly for public health or operational reasons. Schools were closed on an individual basis, during the most intense period of the pandemic and for an average period of six days (maximum 11 days). The risk-based approach evolved as experience and knowledge of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic virus increased, however some decisions were difficult to communicate to parents, schools and stakeholders particularly when the number of schools affected escalated and the pandemic response phases changed. The management of school closures is an 'uncertain art'. Numerous challenges and lessons were identified in attempting, during the containment phase of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, to ensure consistency and transparency in an increasingly complex process. The overall approach described could be further developed to improve decision-making for infectious diseases in schools. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza on passenger aircraft: retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Baker, Michael G; Thornley, Craig N; Mills, Clair; Roberts, Sally; Perera, Shanika; Peters, Julia; Kelso, Anne; Barr, Ian; Wilson, Nick

2010-05-21

To assess the risk of transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza (pandemic A/H1N1) from an infected high school group to other passengers on an airline flight and the effectiveness of screening and follow-up of exposed passengers. Retrospective cohort investigation using a questionnaire administered to passengers and laboratory investigation of those with symptoms. Auckland, New Zealand, with national and international follow-up of passengers. Passengers seated in the rear section of a Boeing 747-400 long haul flight that arrived on 25 April 2009, including a group of 24 students and teachers and 97 (out of 102) other passengers in the same section of the plane who agreed to be interviewed. Laboratory confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 infection in susceptible passengers within 3.2 days of arrival; sensitivity and specificity of influenza symptoms for confirmed infection; and completeness and timeliness of contact tracing. Nine members of the school group were laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic A/H1N1 infection and had symptoms during the flight. Two other passengers developed confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 infection, 12 and 48 hours after the flight. They reported no other potential sources of infection. Their seating was within two rows of infected passengers, implying a risk of infection of about 3.5% for the 57 passengers in those rows. All but one of the confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 infected travellers reported cough, but more complex definitions of influenza cases had relatively low sensitivity. Rigorous follow-up by public health workers located 93% of passengers, but only 52% were contacted within 72 hours of arrival. A low but measurable risk of transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 exists during modern commercial air travel. This risk is concentrated close to infected passengers with symptoms. Follow-up and screening of exposed passengers is slow and difficult once they have left the airport.

Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico

PubMed Central

Comas‐García, Andreu; García‐Sepúlveda, Christian A.; Méndez‐de Lira, José J.; Aranda‐Romo, Saray; Hernández‐Salinas, Alba E.; Noyola, Daniel E.

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Comas‐García et al. (2011) Mortality attributable to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(2), 76–82. Background  Acute respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Starting in 2009, pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus has become one of the leading respiratory pathogens worldwide. However, the overall impact of this virus as a cause of mortality has not been clearly defined. Objectives  To determine the impact of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 on mortality in a Mexican population. Methods  We assessed the impact of pandemic influenza virus on mortality during the first and second outbreaks in San Luis Potosí, Mexico, and compared it to mortality associated with seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) during the previous winter seasons. Results  We estimated that, on average, 8·1% of all deaths that occurred during the 2003–2009 seasons were attributable to influenza and RSV. During the first pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak, there was an increase in mortality in persons 5–59 years of age, but not during the second outbreak (Fall of 2009). Overall, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 outbreaks had similar effects on mortality to those associated with seasonal influenza virus epidemics. Conclusions  The impact of influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus on mortality during the first year of the pandemic was similar to that observed for seasonal influenza. The establishment of real‐time surveillance systems capable of integrating virological, morbidity, and mortality data may result in the timely identification of outbreaks so as to allow for the institution of appropriate control measures to reduce the impact of emerging pathogens on the population. PMID:21306570

Lack of evidence for pre‐symptomatic transmission of pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1) 2009 in an outbreak among teenagers; Germany, 2009

PubMed Central

Hermes, Julia; Bernard, Helen; Buchholz, Udo; Spackova, Michaela; Löw, Johann; Loytved, Gunther; Suess, Thorsten; Hautmann, Wolfgang; Werber, Dirk

2011-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Hermes et al. (2011) Lack of evidence for pre‐symptomatic transmission of pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1) 2009 in an outbreak among teenagers; Germany, 2009. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(6), e499–e503. Background  Observations on the role of pre‐symptomatic transmission in the spread of influenza virus are scanty. In June 2009, an outbreak of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection occurred at a teenager’s party in Germany. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection. Methods  We performed a retrospective cohort study among party guests. A case was defined as pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection confirmed by rRT‐PCR who developed influenza‐like illness between 1 and 5 June 2009. Contact patterns among party guests were evaluated. Results  In eight (36%) of 27 party guests, the outcome was ascertained. A travel returnee from a country with endemic pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 who fell ill toward the end of the party was identified as the source case. Party guests with pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection had talked significantly longer to the source case than non‐infected persons (P‐value: 0·001). Importantly, none (0/9) of those who had left the party prior to the source case’s symptom onset became infected compared to 7 (41%) of 17 who stayed overnight (P = 0·06), and these persons all had transmission‐prone contacts to the source case. Conclusions  In this outbreak with one index case, there was no evidence to support pre‐symptomatic transmission of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009. Further evidence is required, ideally from larger studies with multiple index cases, to more accurately characterize the potential for pre‐symptomatic transmission of influenza virus. PMID:21668675

Infant Respiratory Outcomes Associated with Prenatal Exposure to Maternal 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Vaccination.

PubMed

Fell, Deshayne B; Wilson, Kumanan; Ducharme, Robin; Hawken, Steven; Sprague, Ann E; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Smith, Graeme; Wen, Shi Wu; Walker, Mark C

2016-01-01

Infants are at high risk for influenza illness, but are ineligible for vaccination before 6 months. Transfer of maternal antibodies to the fetus has been demonstrated for 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic vaccines; however, clinical effectiveness is unknown. Our objective was to evaluate the association between 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic vaccination during pregnancy and rates of infant influenza and pneumonia. We linked a population-based birth cohort to administrative databases to measure rates of influenza and pneumonia diagnosed during ambulatory physician visits, hospitalizations and emergency department visits during one year of follow-up. We estimated incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using Poisson regression, comparing infants born to A/H1N1-vaccinated women (vaccine-exposed infants) with unexposed infants, adjusted for confounding using high-dimensional propensity scores. Among 117,335 infants in the study, 36,033 (31%) were born to A/H1N1-vaccinated women. Crude rates of influenza during the pandemic (per 100,000 infant-days) for vaccine-exposed and unexposed infants were similar (2.19, 95% CI: 1.27-3.76 and 3.60, 95% CI: 2.51-5.14, respectively), as were crude rates of influenza and pneumonia combined. We did not observe any significant differences in rates of study outcomes between study groups during the second wave of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, nor during any post-pandemic time period. We observed no difference in rates of study outcomes among infants born to A/H1N1-vaccinated mothers relative to unexposed infants born during the second A/H1N1 pandemic wave; however, due to late availability of the pandemic vaccine, the available follow-up time during the pandemic time period was very limited.

Detection and isolation of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus in commercial piggery, Lagos Nigeria.

PubMed

Meseko, C A; Odaibo, G N; Olaleye, D O

2014-01-10

WHO declared pandemic of A/H1N1 influenza in 2009 following global spread of the newly emerged strain of the virus from swine. Presently there is a dearth of data on the ecology of pandemic influenza H1N1 required for planning of intervention measures in sub Saharan Africa. Herein we report isolation of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in an intensive mega piggery farms operation in South West Nigeria. Sentinel surveillance was carried out in a cohort of intensively reared pigs over a period of two years. Nasal swab specimens were collected at monthly interval from observed clinical cases of influenza like illness in pigs and pig handlers. Samples were analyzed by real time RT-PCR and isolation in chicken embryonated eggs. A total of 227 clinical cases of influenza like illness were observed among pigs out of which 31 (13.7%) were positive for influenza A matrix gene by real time RT-PCR. Virus isolation yielded 29 (12%) isolates out of which 18 (18%) were identified as influenza A/H1N1 by Heamaglutination Inhibition test using H1 antisera. RT-PCR positive samples were subtyped as 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 with subtype specific primers and probes. This is the first report of detection and isolation of pandemic influenza H1N1 from pigs in Nigeria. Continuous circulation of this virus in pigs may cause reassortments with seasonal influenza or mutations and substitutions in the gene that may result in the emergence of novel or pandemic influenza virus of economic and public health importance. Nigeria is considered a geographical hotspot of zoonotic diseases, which necessitate active surveillance and monitoring of emerging pandemic threats. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic profiling of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) receptor and interleukin-1 receptor knockout mice reveals a link between TNF-alpha signaling and increased severity of 1918 pandemic influenza virus infection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 was one of the worst global pandemics in recent history. The highly pathogenic nature of the 1918 virus is thought to be mediated in part by a dysregulation of the host response, including an exacerbated pro-inflammatory cytokine response. In the present study, we...

A knowledge representation of local pandemic influenza planning models.

PubMed

Islam, Runa; Brandeau, Margaret L; Das, Amar K

2007-10-11

Planning for pandemic flu outbreak at the small-government level can be aided through the use of mathematical policy models. Formulating and analyzing policy models, however, can be a time- and expertise-expensive process. We believe that a knowledge-based system for facilitating the instantiation of locale- and problem-specific policy models can reduce some of these costs. In this work, we present the ontology we have developed for pandemic influenza policy models.

Protection of Racial/Ethnic Minority Populations During an Influenza Pandemic

PubMed Central

Fiscella, Kevin; Levine, Robert S.; Ompad, Danielle C.; McDonald, Marian

2009-01-01

Racial/ethnic minority populations experience worse health outcomes than do other groups during and after disasters. Evidence for a differential impact from pandemic influenza includes both higher rates of underlying health conditions in minority populations, increasing their risk of influenza-related complications, and larger socioeconomic (e.g., access to health care), cultural, educational, and linguistic barriers to adoption of pandemic interventions. Implementation of pandemic interventions could be optimized by (1) culturally competent preparedness and response that address specific needs of racial/ethnic minority populations, (2) improvements in public health and community health safety net systems, (3) social policies that minimize economic burdens and improve compliance with isolation and quarantine, and (4) relevant, practical, and culturally and linguistically tailored communications. PMID:19797739

Management of natural and bioterrorism induced pandemics.

PubMed

Tyshenko, Michael G

2007-09-01

A recent approach for bioterrorism risk management calls for stricter regulations over biotechnology as a way to control subversion of technology that may be used to create a man-made pandemic. This approach is largely unworkable given the increasing pervasiveness of molecular techniques and tools throughout society. Emerging technology has provided the tools to design much deadlier pathogens but concomitantly the ability to respond to emerging pandemics to reduce mortality has also improved significantly in recent decades. In its historical context determining just how 'risky' biological weapons is an important consideration for decision making and resource allocation. Management should attempt to increase capacity, share resources, provide accurate infectious disease reporting, deliver information transparency and improve communications to help mitigate the magnitude of future pandemics.

Pandemic Influenza Planning: Addressing the Needs of Children

PubMed Central

Barrios, Lisa; Cordell, Ralph; Delozier, David; Gorman, Susan; Koenig, Linda J.; Odom, Erica; Polder, Jacquelyn; Randolph, Jean; Shimabukuro, Tom; Singleton, Christa

2009-01-01

Children represent one quarter of the US population. Because of its enormous size and special needs, it is critically important to address this population group in pandemic influenza planning. Here we describe the ways in which children are vulnerable in a pandemic, provide an overview of existing plans, summarize the resources available, and, given our experience with influenza A(H1N1), outline the evolving lessons we have learned with respect to planning for a severe influenza pandemic. We focus on a number of issues affecting children—vaccinations, medication availability, hospital capacity, and mental health concerns—and emphasize strategies that will protect children from exposure to the influenza virus, including infection control practices and activities in schools and child care programs. PMID:19797738

"With human health it's a global thing": Canadian perspectives on ethics in the global governance of an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Thompson, Alison K; Smith, Maxwell J; McDougall, Christopher W; Bensimon, Cécile; Perez, Daniel Felipe

2015-03-01

We live in an era where our health is linked to that of others across the globe, and nothing brings this home better than the specter of a pandemic. This paper explores the findings of town hall meetings associated with the Canadian Program of Research on Ethics in a Pandemic (CanPREP), in which focus groups met to discuss issues related to the global governance of an influenza pandemic. Two competing discourses were found to be at work: the first was based upon an economic rationality and the second upon a humanitarian rationality. The implications for public support and the long-term sustainability of new global norms, networks, and regulations in global public health are discussed.

Effective Health Risk Communication About Pandemic Influenza for Vulnerable Populations

PubMed Central

Tinker, Timothy

2009-01-01

The consequences of pandemic influenza for vulnerable populations will depend partly on the effectiveness of health risk communications. Strategic planning should fully consider how life circumstances, cultural values, and perspectives on risk influence behavior during a pandemic. We summarize recent scientific evidence on communication challenges and examine how sociocultural, economic, psychological, and health factors can jeopardize or facilitate public health interventions that require a cooperative public. If ignored, current communication gaps for vulnerable populations could result in unequal protection across society during an influenza pandemic. We offer insights on communication preparedness gleaned from scientific studies and the deliberations of public health experts at a meeting convened by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, May 1 and 2, 2008. PMID:19797744

Vaccines for Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Luke, Catherine J.

2006-01-01

Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia and associated human infections have led to a heightened level of awareness and preparation for a possible influenza pandemic. Vaccination is the best option by which spread of a pandemic virus could be prevented and severity of disease reduced. Production of live attenuated and inactivated vaccine seed viruses against avian influenza viruses, which have the potential to cause pandemics, and their testing in preclinical studies and clinical trials will establish the principles and ensure manufacturing experience that will be critical in the event of the emergence of such a virus into the human population. Studies of such vaccines will also add to our understanding of the biology of avian influenza viruses and their behavior in mammalian hosts. PMID:16494720

Improvements in pandemic preparedness in 8 Central American countries, 2008 - 2012

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In view of ongoing pandemic threats such as the recent human cases of novel avian influenza A(H7N9) in China, it is important that all countries continue their preparedness efforts. Since 2006, Central American countries have received donor funding and technical assistance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to build and improve their capacity for influenza surveillance and pandemic preparedness. Our objective was to measure changes in pandemic preparedness in this region, and explore factors associated with these changes, using evaluations conducted between 2008 and 2012. Methods Eight Central American countries scored their pandemic preparedness across 12 capabilities in 2008, 2010 and 2012, using a standardized tool developed by CDC. Scores were calculated by country and capability and compared between evaluation years using the Student’s t-test and Wilcoxon Rank Sum test, respectively. Virological data reported to WHO were used to assess changes in testing capacity between evaluation years. Linear regression was used to examine associations between scores, donor funding, technical assistance and WHO reporting. Results All countries improved their pandemic preparedness between 2008 and 2012 and seven made statistically significant gains (p < 0.05). Increases in median scores were observed for all 12 capabilities over the same period and were statistically significant for eight of these (p < 0.05): country planning, communications, routine influenza surveillance, national respiratory disease surveillance, outbreak response, resources for containment, community interventions and health sector response. We found a positive association between preparedness scores and cumulative funding between 2006 and 2011 (R2 = 0.5, p < 0.01). The number of specimens reported to WHO from participating countries increased significantly from 5,551 (2008) to 18,172 (2012) (p < 0.01). Conclusions Central America has made significant improvements in influenza pandemic preparedness between 2008 and 2012. U.S. donor funding and technical assistance provided to the region is likely to have contributed to the improvements we observed, although information on other sources of funding and support was unavailable to study. Gains are also likely the result of countries’ response to the 2009 influenza pandemic. Further research is required to determine the degree to which pandemic improvements are sustainable. PMID:24886275

Cardiac complications associated with the influenza viruses A subtype H7N9 or pandemic H1N1 in critically ill patients under intensive care.

PubMed

Wang, Jiajia; Xu, Hua; Yang, Xinjing; Zhao, Daguo; Liu, Shenglan; Sun, Xue; Huang, Jian-An; Guo, Qiang

The clinical presentations and disease courses of patients hospitalized with either influenza A virus subtype H7N9 (H7N9) or 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus were compared in a recent report, but associated cardiac complications remain unclear. The present retrospective study investigated whether cardiac complications in critically ill patients with H7N9 infections differed from those infected with the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus strain. Suspect cases were confirmed by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays with specific confirmation of the pandemic H1N1 strain at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Comparisons were conducted at the individual-level data of critically ill patients hospitalized with H7N9 (n=24) or pandemic H1N1 influenza virus (n=22) infections in Suzhou, China. Changes in cardiac biochemical markers, echocardiography, and electrocardiography during hospitalization in the intensive care unit were considered signs of cardiac complications. The following findings were more common among the H7N9 group relative to the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus group: greater tricuspid regurgitation pressure gradient, sinus tachycardia (heartbeat≥130bpm), ST segment depression, right ventricular dysfunction, and elevated cardiac biochemical markers. Pericardial effusion was more often found among pandemic H1N1 influenza virus patients than in the H7N9 group. In both groups, most of the cardiac complications were detected from day 6 to 14 after the onset of influenza symptoms. Those who developed cardiac complications were especially vulnerable during the first four days after initiation of mechanical ventilation. Cardiac complications were reversible in the vast majority of discharged H7N9 patients. Critically ill hospitalized H7N9 patients experienced a higher rate of cardiac complications than did patients with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus infections, with the exception of pericardial effusion. This study may help in the prevention, identification, and treatment of influenza-induced cardiac complications in both pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and H7N9 infections. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

PubMed

Lee, Vernon J; Tok, Mei Yin; Chow, Vincent T; Phua, Kai Hong; Ooi, Eng Eong; Tambyah, Paul A; Chen, Mark I

2009-09-22

All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza. PMID:21486453

Existing health inequalities in India: informing preparedness planning for an influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

Kumar, Supriya; Quinn, Sandra C

2012-01-01

On 11 June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the world was in phase 6 of an influenza pandemic. In India, the first case of 2009 H1N1 influenza was reported on 16 May 2009 and by August 2010 (when the pandemic was declared over), 38 730 cases of 2009 H1N1 had been confirmed of which there were 2024 deaths. Here, we propose a conceptual model of the sources of health disparities in an influenza pandemic in India. Guided by a published model of the plausible sources of such disparities in the United States, we reviewed the literature for the determinants of the plausible sources of health disparities during a pandemic in India. We find that factors at multiple social levels could determine inequalities in the risk of exposure and susceptibility to influenza, as well as access to treatment once infected: (1) religion, caste and indigenous identity, as well as education and gender at the individual level; (2) wealth at the household level; and (3) the type of location, ratio of health care practitioners to population served, access to transportation and public spending on health care in the geographic area of residence. Such inequalities could lead to unequal levels of disease and death. Whereas causal factors can only be determined by testing the model when incidence and mortality data, collected in conjunction with socio-economic and geographic factors, become available, we put forth recommendations that policy makers can undertake to ensure that the pandemic preparedness plan includes a focus on social inequalities in India in order to prevent their exacerbation in a pandemic. PMID:22131367

ICU-treated influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infections more severe post pandemic than during 2009 pandemic: a retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Ylipalosaari, Pekka; Ala-Kokko, Tero I; Laurila, Jouko; Ahvenjärvi, Lauri; Syrjälä, Hannu

2017-11-21

We compared in a single mixed intensive care unit (ICU) patients with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 between pandemic and postpandemic periods. Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data in 2009-2016. Data are expressed as median (25th-75th percentile) or number (percentile). Seventy-six influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 patients were admitted to the ICU: 16 during the pandemic period and 60 during the postpandemic period. Postpandemic patients were significantly older (60 years vs. 43 years, p < 0.001) and less likely to have epilepsy or other neurological diseases compared with pandemic patients (5 [8.3%] vs. 6 [38%], respectively; p = 0.009). Postpandemic patients were more likely than pandemic patients to have cardiovascular disease (24 [40%] vs. 1 [6%], respectively; p = 0.015), and they had higher scores on APACHE II (17 [13-22] vs. 14 [10-17], p = 0.002) and SAPS II (40 [31-51] vs. 31 [25-35], p = 0.002) upon admission to the ICU. Postpandemic patients had higher maximal SOFA score (9 [5-12] vs. 5 [4-9], respectively; p = 0.03) during their ICU stay. Postpandemic patients had more often septic shock (40 [66.7%] vs. 8 [50.0%], p = 0.042), and longer median hospital stays (15.0 vs. 8.0 days, respectively; p = 0.006). During 2015-2016, only 18% of the ICU- treated patients had received seasonal influenza vaccination. Postpandemic ICU-treated A(H1N1) pdm09 influenza patients were older and developed more often septic shock and had longer hospital stays than influenza patients during the 2009 pandemic.

Clinical course of ICU patients with severe pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pneumonia: single center experience with proning and pressure release ventilation.

PubMed

Sundar, Krishna M; Thaut, Phillip; Nielsen, David B; Alward, William T; Pearce, Michael J

2012-01-01

A number of different modalities have been employed in addition to conventional ventilation to improve oxygenation in patients with severe 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) pneumonia. Outcomes with ventilatory and rescue therapies for H1N1 influenza-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have been varied. A single intensive care unit (ICU) experience with management of laboratory-confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) ARDS with a combination of proning and airway pressure release ventilation (APRV) is described. A retrospective review of medical records of ICU patients seen at Utah Valley Regional Medical Center during the first and second waves of the H1N1 influenza pandemic was done. Fourteen ICU patients were managed with invasive ventilation for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1)-related ARDS. Hypoxemia refractory to conventional ventilation was noted in 11 of 14 patients despite application of APRV. Following proning in patients on APRV, improvement of hypoxemia and hemodynamic status was achieved. Only 2 of 11 patients on APRV and proning required continuous dialysis. Mortality in intubated patients receiving a combination of proning and APRV was 27.3% (3/11) with 2 of these dying during the first wave of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. In all, 3 of 11 patients on proning and APRV underwent tracheostomy, with 2 of these undergoing tube thoracostomy. ARDSnet fluid-conservative protocol was safely tolerated in 8 of 11 of the intubated patients following initiation of proning and APRV. Proning in combination with APRV provides improvement of hypoxemia with limitation of end-organ dysfunction and thereby facilitates recovery from severe 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1).

Computer-assisted resilience training to prepare healthcare workers for pandemic influenza: a randomized trial of the optimal dose of training

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Working in a hospital during an extraordinary infectious disease outbreak can cause significant stress and contribute to healthcare workers choosing to reduce patient contact. Psychological training of healthcare workers prior to an influenza pandemic may reduce stress-related absenteeism, however, established training methods that change behavior and attitudes are too resource-intensive for widespread use. This study tests the feasibility and effectiveness of a less expensive alternative - an interactive, computer-assisted training course designed to build resilience to the stresses of working during a pandemic. Methods A "dose-finding" study compared pre-post changes in three different durations of training. We measured variables that are likely to mediate stress-responses in a pandemic before and after training: confidence in support and training, pandemic-related self-efficacy, coping style and interpersonal problems. Results 158 hospital workers took the course and were randomly assigned to the short (7 sessions, median cumulative duration 111 minutes), medium (12 sessions, 158 minutes) or long (17 sessions, 223 minutes) version. Using an intention-to-treat analysis, the course was associated with significant improvements in confidence in support and training, pandemic self-efficacy and interpersonal problems. Participants who under-utilized coping via problem-solving or seeking support or over-utilized escape-avoidance experienced improved coping. Comparison of doses showed improved interpersonal problems in the medium and long course but not in the short course. There was a trend towards higher drop-out rates with longer duration of training. Conclusions Computer-assisted resilience training in healthcare workers appears to be of significant benefit and merits further study under pandemic conditions. Comparing three "doses" of the course suggested that the medium course was optimal. PMID:20307302

Impact of pandemic flu training on ability of medical personnel to recognize an index case of avian influenza.

PubMed

Adini, Bruria; Goldberg, Avishay; Cohen, Robert; Bar-Dayan, Yaron

2012-04-01

This study investigated the relationship between training programmes for pandemic flu and level of knowledge of health-care professionals with performance in an avian flu exercise. Training programmes of all general hospitals in Israel for managing a pandemic influenza were evaluated. Spearman's ρ correlation was used to analyse the relationship between training scores and level of knowledge of medical personnel with performance in an avian flu exercise. Hospital preparedness levels were evaluated at two time points and Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to determine if overall preparedness scores improved over time. Evaluation of training programmes for pandemic influenza showed high to very high scores in most hospitals (mean 85, SD 22). Significant correlations between training and performance in the exercise were noted for: implementation of training programmes 0.91, P = 0.000; designating personnel for training 0.87, P = 0.000; content of training 0.61, P = 0.001; and training materials 0.36, P = 0.05. Overall reliability of the evaluation scores was 0.82 and reliability for two of the sub-scales was: implementation of the programme 0.78; and designating personnel for training 0.37. No significant correlation was found between level of knowledge and performance in the exercise. Training programmes for hospital personnel for pandemic flu have a significant role in improving performance in case of pandemic flu. The key component of the training programme appears to be the implementation of the programme. Use of knowledge tests should be further investigated, as they do not appear to correlate with the level of emergency preparedness for pandemic influenza.

Risk factors for death from pandemic influenza in 1918–1919: a case–control study

PubMed Central

Summers, Jennifer A; Stanley, James; Baker, Michael G; Wilson, Nick

2014-01-01

Background Despite the persisting threat from future influenza pandemics, much is still unknown about the risk factors for death from such events, and especially for the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. Methods A case–control study was performed to explore possible risk factors for death from pandemic influenza among New Zealand military personnel in the Northern Hemisphere in 1918–1919 (n = 218 cases, n = 221 controls). Data were compiled from a Roll-of-Honour dataset, a dataset of nearly all military personnel involved in the war and archived individual records. Results In the fully adjusted multivariable model, the following were significantly associated with increased risk of death from pandemic influenza: age (25–29 years), pre-pandemic hospitalisations for a chronic condition (e.g. tuberculosis), relatively early year of military deployment, a relatively short time from enlistment to foreign service, and having a larger chest size (e.g. adjusted odds ratio for 90–99 cm versus <90 cm was 2·45; 95% CI=1·47–4·10). There were no significant associations in the fully adjusted model with military rank, occupational class at enlistment, and rurality at enlistment. Conclusions This is one of the first published case–control studies of mortality risk factors for the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. Some of the findings are consistent with previous research on risk factors (such as chronic conditions and age groups), but others appear more novel (e.g., larger chest size). As all such historical analyses have limitations, there is a need for additional studies in other settings as archival World War One records become digitalised. PMID:24490663

Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response

PubMed Central

Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E.; Keller, Virginie D.J.; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Background: The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. Objectives: We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. Methods: To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Results: Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0–14% and 5–32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0–14% and 0–30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). Conclusions: The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity. PMID:21367688

Assessing the ecotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response.

PubMed

Singer, Andrew C; Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E; Keller, Virginie D J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J

2011-08-01

The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 5-32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 0-30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity.

Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis

PubMed Central

Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S.; Kreijtz, Joost H.C.M.; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Claassen, E.

2015-01-01

A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT–AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. PMID:26048779

Market implementation of the MVA platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines: A quantitative key opinion leader analysis.

PubMed

Ramezanpour, Bahar; Pronker, Esther S; Kreijtz, Joost H C M; Osterhaus, Albert D M E; Claassen, E

2015-08-20

A quantitative method is presented to rank strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) as a platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to achieve pairwise comparisons among SWOT factors in order to prioritize them. Key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the influenza vaccine field were interviewed to collect a unique dataset to evaluate the market potential of this platform. The purpose of this study, to evaluate commercial potential of the MVA platform for the development of novel generation pandemic influenza vaccines, is accomplished by using a SWOT and AHP combined analytic method. Application of the SWOT-AHP model indicates that its strengths are considered more important by KOLs than its weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. Particularly, the inherent immunogenicity capability of MVA without the requirement of an adjuvant is the most important factor to increase commercial attractiveness of this platform. Concerns regarding vector vaccines and anti-vector immunity are considered its most important weakness, which might lower public health value of this platform. Furthermore, evaluation of the results of this study emphasizes equally important role that threats and opportunities of this platform play. This study further highlights unmet needs in the influenza vaccine market, which could be addressed by the implementation of the MVA platform. Broad use of MVA in clinical trials shows great promise for this vector as vaccine platform for pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza and threats by other respiratory viruses. Moreover, from the results of the clinical trials seem that MVA is particularly attractive for development of vaccines against pathogens for which no, or only insufficiently effective vaccines, are available. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Characterization of neuraminidase inhibitor-resistant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated in four seasons during pandemic and post-pandemic periods in Japan.

PubMed

Takashita, Emi; Fujisaki, Seiichiro; Kishida, Noriko; Xu, Hong; Imai, Masaki; Tashiro, Masato; Odagiri, Takato

2013-11-01

Japan has the highest frequency of neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor use against influenza in the world. Therefore, Japan could be at high risk of the emergence and spread of NA inhibitor-resistant viruses. The aim of this study was to monitor the emergence of NA inhibitor-resistant viruses and the possibility of human-to-human transmission during four influenza seasons in Japan. To monitor antiviral-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses, we examined viruses isolated in four seasons from the 2008-2009 season through the 2011-2012 season in Japan by allelic discrimination, NA gene sequencing, and NA inhibitor susceptibility. We found that 157 (1·3%) of 12 026 A(H1N1)pdm09 isolates possessed an H275Y substitution in the NA protein that confers about 400- and 140-fold decreased susceptibility to oseltamivir and peramivir, respectively, compared with 275H wild-type viruses. The detection rate of resistant viruses increased from 1·0% during the pandemic period to 2·0% during the post-pandemic period. The highest detection rate of the resistant viruses was found in patients who were 0-9 years old. Furthermore, among the cases with resistant viruses, the percentage of no known exposure to antiviral drugs increased from 16% during the pandemic period to 44% during the post-pandemic period, implying that suspected human-to-human transmission of the resistant viruses gradually increased in the post-pandemic period. A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses resistant to oseltamivir and peramivir were sporadically detected in Japan, but they did not spread throughout the community. No viruses resistant to zanamivir and laninamivir were detected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influenza and SARS: the impact of viral pandemics on maritime health.

PubMed

Lim, Poh Lian

2011-01-01

Global travel and transport play a critical role in the spread of infections. We see this clearly in the first two pandemics of the 21st century: SARS and influenza H1N1-2009. Although air travel contributed to dissemination in these two pandemics, the travel restrictions, quarantines, and heightened vigilance which resulted had an impact on maritime health. Seasonal, pandemic, and avian influenza have some important differences with regards to exposure risks, infectivity, and severity. Most of the data for maritime influenza outbreaks focus on seasonal influenza on cruise ships, but influenza among crew members occurs due to close working conditions and is potentially preventable with staff vaccination programs. To date, avian influenza has low human-to-human transmission; infection typically requires close contact with poultry, but presents with severe disease and a high fatality rate. Pandemic (swine) influenza was readily transmitted between people, including young adults, and caused severe illness in high-risk groups including pregnant women, children, and those with co-morbidities and obesity. In contrast, SARS had lower infectivity compared to influenza, and a longer incubation period. These characteristics slowed its propagation enough that outbreak control measures, such as isolation of infected cases and quarantine of exposed but well persons, were effective in terminating this pandemic. No effective vaccine exists for SARS at this time, whereas countries were able to deploy millions of doses of pandemic influenza vaccine within 7 months after the outbreak was first recognized in Mexico. The lack of a protective vaccine and the higher case fatality rate in SARS will mean that stringent quarantine measures may still be required for outbreak control if SARS ever occurs again. Compliance with international health regulations, and the ability to adapt these to maritime health needs, will be important in the shipping industry.

A home health agency's pandemic preparedness and experience with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Citarella, Barbara; Subramaniam, Divya S; Subramaniam, Dipti P

2011-11-01

Adequate pandemic preparedness is imperative for home health agencies. A 23-item pandemic preparedness survey was administered to home health agencies in the spring of 2010. The Kruskal-Wallis (KW) test was used to evaluate the relationships between agency size and preparedness indicators. Significant findings were further analyzed by the Mann-Whitney (MW) U post hoc test. The response rate was 25% (526/2,119). Approximately one-third of respondents (30.4%; n = 131) reported experiencing trouble obtaining supplies during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Small agencies were significantly more likely (Krusal-Wallis [KW] = 9.2; P < .01) to report having trouble obtaining supplies than larger-sized agencies (Mann-Whitney [MW] = 14,080; P < .01). Most home health agencies (87.3%; n = 459) reported having a pandemic influenza plan. One-third (33.5%; n = 176) reported having no surge capacity; only 27.0% (n = 142) reported having at least a 20% surge capacity. The largest agencies were significantly more likely (KW = 138; P < .001) to report having at least 20% surge capacity than medium-sized agencies (MW = 7,812; P = .001) or small agencies (MW = 8,306; P < .001). Approximately 80% (n = 414) reported stockpiling personal protective equipment. Three-quarters (71.3%; n = 375) reported fit-testing staff, and half (49.2%; n = 259) reported participating in disaster drills. The majority of home health professionals (75.1%; n = 395) reported having a personal/family disaster plan in place. There are gaps in US home health agency pandemic preparedness, including surge capacity and participation in disaster drills, that need to be addressed. Copyright © 2011 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Lack of evidence for pre-symptomatic transmission of pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1) 2009 in an outbreak among teenagers; Germany, 2009.

PubMed

Hermes, Julia; Bernard, Helen; Buchholz, Udo; Spackova, Michaela; Löw, Johann; Loytved, Gunther; Suess, Thorsten; Hautmann, Wolfgang; Werber, Dirk

2011-11-01

Observations on the role of pre-symptomatic transmission in the spread of influenza virus are scanty. In June 2009, an outbreak of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection occurred at a teenager's party in Germany. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection. We performed a retrospective cohort study among party guests. A case was defined as pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection confirmed by rRT-PCR who developed influenza-like illness between 1 and 5 June 2009. Contact patterns among party guests were evaluated. In eight (36%) of 27 party guests, the outcome was ascertained. A travel returnee from a country with endemic pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 who fell ill toward the end of the party was identified as the source case. Party guests with pandemic A(H1N1) 2009 infection had talked significantly longer to the source case than non-infected persons (P-value: 0·001). Importantly, none (0/9) of those who had left the party prior to the source case's symptom onset became infected compared to 7 (41%) of 17 who stayed overnight (P = 0·06), and these persons all had transmission-prone contacts to the source case. In this outbreak with one index case, there was no evidence to support pre-symptomatic transmission of pandemic A(H1N1) 2009. Further evidence is required, ideally from larger studies with multiple index cases, to more accurately characterize the potential for pre-symptomatic transmission of influenza virus. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

PubMed Central

Ramasco, Jose J.; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria; Vespignani, Alessandro

2011-01-01

After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level. PMID:21304943

Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories

PubMed Central

Rudge, James W.; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Krumkamp, Ralf; Chavez, Irwin; Adisasmito, Wiku; Ngoc Chau, Pham; Phommasak, Bounlay; Putthasri, Weerasak; Shih, Chin-Shui; Stein, Mart; Timen, Aura; Touch, Sok; Reintjes, Ralf; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

Background Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. Methods and Findings We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a “mild-to-moderate” pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as “avoidable” mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. Conclusions The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths. PMID:22363739

Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories.

PubMed

Rudge, James W; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Krumkamp, Ralf; Chavez, Irwin; Adisasmito, Wiku; Chau, Pham Ngoc; Phommasak, Bounlay; Putthasri, Weerasak; Shih, Chin-Shui; Stein, Mart; Timen, Aura; Touch, Sok; Reintjes, Ralf; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths.

Safety of pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Wijnans, Leonoor; de Bie, Sandra; Dieleman, Jeanne; Bonhoeffer, Jan; Sturkenboom, Miriam

2011-10-06

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic several pandemic H1N1 vaccines were licensed using fast track procedures, with relatively limited data on the safety in children and adolescents. Different extensive safety monitoring efforts were put in place to ensure timely detection of adverse events following immunization. These combined efforts have generated large amounts of data on the safety of the different pandemic H1N1 vaccines, also in children and adolescents. In this overview we shortly summarize the safety experience with seasonal influenza vaccines as a background and focus on the clinical and post marketing safety data of the pandemic H1N1 vaccines in children. We identified 25 different clinical studies including 10,505 children and adolescents, both healthy and with underlying medical conditions, between the ages of 6 months and 23 years. In addition, large monitoring efforts have resulted in large amounts of data, with almost 13,000 individual case reports in children and adolescents to the WHO. However, the diversity in methods and data presentation in clinical study publications and publications of spontaneous reports hampered the analysis of safety of the different vaccines. As a result, relatively little has been learned on the comparative safety of these pandemic H1N1 vaccines - particularly in children. It should be a collective effort to give added value to the enormous work going into the individual studies by adhering to available guidelines for the collection, analysis, and presentation of vaccine safety data in clinical studies and to guidance for the clinical investigation of medicinal products in the pediatric population. Importantly the pandemic has brought us the beginning of an infrastructure for collaborative vaccine safety studies in the EU, USA and globally. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

2011-01-01

Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Zheng, Hui; Gilmore, Jason

2011-04-12

As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Community Transmission Was Established in One Australian State When the Virus Was First Identified in North America

PubMed Central

Kelly, Heath A.; Mercer, Geoff N.; Fielding, James E.; Dowse, Gary K.; Glass, Kathryn; Carcione, Dale; Grant, Kristina A.; Effler, Paul V.; Lester, Rosemary A.

2010-01-01

Background In mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA). Methods We used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases. Results Epidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA. Conclusion Strong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico. PMID:20596536

A conceptual approach to improving care in pandemics and beyond: severe lung injury centers.

PubMed

Adalja, Amesh A; Watson, Matthew; Waldhorn, Richard E; Toner, Eric S

2013-06-01

The events of the 2009 influenza pandemic sparked discussion regarding the need to optimize delivery of care to those most severely ill. We propose in this conceptual study that a tiered regionalization care system be instituted for patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Such system would be a component of national pandemic plans and could also be used in day-to-day operations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Prior to Pandemic Spread

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

equally closely strains of both H1N2 influenza A virus of swine origin and H3N2 influenza A virus of avian origin. The expected matches for each of...Naval Health Research Center Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Virus Prior to Pandemic Spread...10.1128/JCM.01336-10 PMCID: PMC3020883 Initial Identification and Characterization of an Emerging Zoonotic Influenza Virus Prior to Pandemic

Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic. PMID:22713694

Disparities in influenza mortality and transmission related to sociodemographic factors within Chicago in the pandemic of 1918

PubMed Central

Grantz, Kyra H.; Rane, Madhura S.; Salje, Henrik; Glass, Gregory E.; Schachterle, Stephen E.; Cummings, Derek A. T.

2016-01-01

Social factors have been shown to create differential burden of influenza across different geographic areas. We explored the relationship between potential aggregate-level social determinants and mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chicago using a historical dataset of 7,971 influenza and pneumonia deaths. Census tract-level social factors, including rates of illiteracy, homeownership, population, and unemployment, were assessed as predictors of pandemic mortality in Chicago. Poisson models fit with generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to estimate the association between social factors and the risk of influenza and pneumonia mortality. The Poisson model showed that influenza and pneumonia mortality increased, on average, by 32.2% for every 10% increase in illiteracy rate adjusted for population density, homeownership, unemployment, and age. We also found a significant association between transmissibility and population density, illiteracy, and unemployment but not homeownership. Lastly, analysis of the point locations of reported influenza and pneumonia deaths revealed fine-scale spatiotemporal clustering. This study shows that living in census tracts with higher illiteracy rates increased the risk of influenza and pneumonia mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Chicago. Our observation that disparities in structural determinants of neighborhood-level health lead to disparities in influenza incidence in this pandemic suggests that disparities and their determinants should remain targets of research and control in future pandemics. PMID:27872284

Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

PubMed

El Haimar, Amine; Santos, Joost R

2014-03-01

Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR). The analysis conducted in this article is based on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic data. Two metrics were used to assess the impacts of the influenza pandemic on the economic sectors: (i) inoperability, which measures the percentage gap between the as-planned output and the actual output of a sector, and (ii) economic loss, which quantifies the associated monetary value of the degraded output. The inoperability and economic loss metrics generate two different rankings of the critical economic sectors. Results show that most of the critical sectors in terms of inoperability are sectors that are related to hospitals and health-care providers. On the other hand, most of the sectors that are critically ranked in terms of economic loss are sectors with significant total production outputs in the NCR such as federal government agencies. Therefore, policy recommendations relating to potential mitigation and recovery strategies should take into account the balance between the inoperability and economic loss metrics. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

The integrated information architecture: a pilot study approach to leveraging logistics management with regard to influenza preparedness.

PubMed

Lin, Chinho; Lin, Chun-Mei; Yen, David C; Wu, Wu-Han

2012-02-01

Pandemic influenza is considered catastrophic to global health, with severe economic and social effects. Consequently, a strategy for the rapid deployment of essential medical supplies used for the prevention of influenza transmission and to alleviate public panic caused by the expected shortage of such supplies needs to be developed. Therefore, we employ integrated information concepts to develop a simulated influenza medical material supply system to facilitate a rapid response to such a crisis. Various scenarios are analyzed to estimate the appropriate inventory policy needed under different pandemic influenza outbreaks, and to establish a mechanism to evaluate the necessary stockpiles of medications and other requirements in the different phases of the pandemic. This study constructed a web-based decision support system framework prototype that displayed transparent data related to medical stockpiles in each district and integrated expert opinion about the best distribution of these supplies in the influenza pandemic scenarios. A data collection system was also designed to gather information through a daily VPN transmitted into one central repository for reporting and distribution purposes. This study provides timely and transparent medical supplies distribution information that can help decision makers to make the appropriate decisions under different pandemic influenza outbreaks, and also attempts to establish a mechanism of evaluating the stockpiles and requirements in the different phases of the pandemic.

Pandemic influenza: human rights, ethics and duty to treat.

PubMed

Pahlman, I; Tohmo, H; Gylling, H

2010-01-01

The 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic seems to be only moderately severe. In the future, a pandemic influenza with high lethality, such as the Spanish influenza in 1918-1919 or even worse, may emerge. In this kind of scenario, lethality rates ranging roughly from 2% to 30% have been proposed. Legal and ethical issues should be discussed before the incident. This article aims to highlight the legal, ethical and professional aspects that might be relevant to anaesthesiologists in the case of a high-lethality infectious disease such as a severe pandemic influenza. The epidemiology, the role of anaesthesiologists and possible threats to the profession and colleagueship within medical specialties relevant to anaesthesiologists are reviewed. During historical plague epidemics, some doctors have behaved like 'deserters'. However, during the Spanish influenza, physicians remained at their jobs, although many perished. In surveys, more than half of the health-care workers have reported their willingness to work in the case of severe pandemics. Physicians have the same human rights as all citizens: they have to be effectively protected against infectious disease. However, they have a duty to treat. Fair and responsible colleagueship among the diverse medical specialties should be promoted. Until disaster threatens humanity, volunteering to work during a pandemic might be the best way to ensure that physicians and other health-care workers stay at their workplace. Broad discussion in society is needed.

Mortality associated with influenza in tropics, state of são paulo, Brazil, from 2002 to 2011: the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-pandemic periods.

PubMed

Freitas, André Ricardo Ribas; Francisco, Priscila M S Bergamo; Donalisio, Maria Rita

2013-01-01

The impact of the seasonal influenza and 2009 AH1N1 pandemic influenza on mortality is not yet completely understood, particularly in tropical and subtropical countries. The trends of influenza related mortality rate in different age groups and different outcomes on a area in tropical and subtropical climate with more than 41 million people (State of São Paulo, Brazil), were studied from 2002 to 2011 were studied. Serfling-type regression analysis was performed using weekly mortality registries and virological data obtained from sentinel surveillance. The prepandemic years presented a well-defined seasonality during winter and a clear relationship between activity of AH3N2 and increase of mortality in all ages, especially in individuals older than 60 years. The mortality due to pneumonia and influenza and respiratory causes associated with 2009 pandemic influenza in the age groups 0-4 years and older than 60 was lower than the previous years. Among people aged 5-19 and 20-59 years the mortality was 2.6 and 4.4 times higher than that in previous periods, respectively. The mortality in all ages was higher than the average of the previous years but was equal mortality in epidemics of AH3N2. The 2009 pandemic influenza mortality showed significant differences compared to other years, especially considering the age groups most affected.

Plague, rats, and ships The realisation of the infection routes of plague.

PubMed

Sonne, Ole

Three plague pandemics plus several epidemics have ravaged the world. The three pandemics were characterised by the role shipping played in spreading of the plague. The third pandemic, which began in southern China in the 1850s, was carried out of Hong Kong in 1894 to all continents by steamships. The oldest known documents mentioning quarantine as a precaution against epidemics dates back to 1127 in Venice. During the second pandemic, the Black Death, quarantine was systematised. During the third pandemic gassing of the ships was introduced by burning sulphur. Later hydrogen cyanide, carbon monoxide and other toxic gasses have been applied. In many harbours the use of rat shields were made compulsory in the beginning of the 20th century. The French bacteriologist Alexandre Emile Jean Yersin isolated in 1894 and identified Yersinia pestis as the contagious agent in Hong Kong despite obstructions from the British authorities who favoured Shibasaburo Kitasato from Japan. Four years later the French scientist Paul-Louis Simond established the rat flee, Xenopsylla cheopis, as the vector transferring the bacteria from rats to humans. This discovery was, however, not recognized until 1903 and another five years passed until clinical consequences were taken during the plague epidemic in India 1908. Each pandemic lasted several centuries due to reintroduction of Y pestis from local reservoirs in rodent populations in addition to reintroduction from the original Asiatic reservoirs.

Pacific region influenza surveillance for oseltamivir resistance.

PubMed

Miller, Heather B; Gose, Remedios B; Nagata, Mark T; Sciulli, Rebecca H; Whelen, A Christian

2012-05-01

Hawaii and the United States-affiliated Pacific islands (USAPI) host over 8 million travelers annually, most of whom originate in Asia, Australia, and the Americas where prevalence of oseltamivir resistance in 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has been reported to be 2.5-3.5%. To survey a collection of samples from Hawaii and the USAPI that had tested positive for the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus by RTI-PCR to assess whether antiviral resistance emerged in these island communities during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We examined RNA extracted from Hawaiian and USAPI cases for the neuraminidase H275Y mutation associated with oseltamivir resistance by pyrosequencing. Two hundred and sixty-three (263) 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) positive specimens were tested and 263/263 (100%) were shown to lack the mutation most commonly associated with oseltamivir resistance. There was no evidence of oseltamivir resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 virus during the 2009 pandemic in the Pacific islands despite considerable travel exposure. Geographic isolation, the lack of a "second wave" of pandemic influenza, judicious antiviral use, aggressive vaccination, and below average tourism due to the global economic crisis may have been contributing factors. Continued surveillance and vigilance is necessary to monitor unpredictable influenza activity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chiluba urges Africans to find own solutions to pandemic. AIDS / STD conference news.

PubMed

President Frederick Chiluba of Zambia has urged researchers to find solutions to the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa during the 11th International Conference on AIDS and Sexually Transmitted Diseases. The 5-day conference, which was attended by 3000 delegates, planned to map out an approach to fight the pandemic affecting 22 million people in Africa. Callisto Madavo, World Bank regional-director for Africa, demanded that African governments should make AIDS the primary focus of their development agenda. The World Bank, which recognizes AIDS as the foremost threat to African development, has made the pandemic an integral part of all its activities in the region. The stigma associated with the disease had to be eliminated, according to executive director Peter Piot of the UN program on HIV/AIDS. He said that the negative attitudes have made anti-AIDS education campaigns difficult and discouraged people from seeking testing and counseling. WHO Africa director Ebrahim Samba has called on the cooperating partners of the region to support the fight against the HIV/AIDS pandemic with resources commensurate at hand.

Crying wolf? Biosecurity and metacommunication in the context of the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

PubMed

Nerlich, Brigitte; Koteyko, Nelya

2012-07-01

This article explores how the 2009 pandemic of swine flu (H1N1) intersected with issues of biosecurity in the context of an increasing entanglement between the spread of disease and the spread of information. Drawing on research into metacommunication, the article studies the rise of communication about ways in which swine flu was communicated, both globally and locally, during the pandemic. It examines and compares two corpora of texts, namely UK newspaper articles and blogs, written between 28 March and 11 June 2009, that is, the period from the start of the outbreak till the WHO announcement of the pandemic. Findings show that the interaction between traditional and digital media as well as the interaction between warnings about swine flu and previous warnings about other epidemics contributed to a heightened discourse of blame and counter-blame but also, more surprisingly, self-blame and reflections about the role the media in pandemic communication. The consequences of this increase in metacommunication for research into crisis communication are explored. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2015 Pandemic Influenza Readiness Assessment Among US Public Health Emergency Preparedness Awardees.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Thomas J; Moulia, Danielle L; Graitcer, Samuel B; Vagi, Sara J; Dopson, Stephanie A

2017-09-01

To assess how US Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP) awardees plan to respond to an influenza pandemic with vaccination. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed the Pandemic Influenza Readiness Assessment, an online survey sent to PHEP directors, to analyze, in part, the readiness of PHEP awardees to vaccinate 80% of the populations of their jurisdictions with 2 doses of pandemic influenza vaccine, separated by 21 days, within 16 weeks of vaccine availability. Thirty-eight of 60 (63.3%) awardees reported being able to vaccinate their populations within 16 weeks; 38 (63.3%) planned to allocate more than 20% of their pandemic vaccine supply to points of dispensing (PODs). Thirty-four of 58 (58.6%) reported staffing as a challenge to vaccinating 80% of their populations; 28 of 60 (46.7%) reported preparedness workforce decreases, and 22 (36.7%) reported immunization workforce decreases between January 2012 and July 2015. Awardees relied on PODs to vaccinate segments of their jurisdictions despite workforce decreases. Planners must ensure readiness for POD sites to vaccinate, but should also leverage complementary sites and providers to augment public health response.

Fighting flu: military pathology, vaccines, and the conflicted identity of the 1918-19 pandemic in Britain.

PubMed

Bresalier, Michael

2013-01-01

This article explores the decisive role of British military medicine in shaping official approaches to the 1918 influenza pandemic. It contends that British approaches were defined through a system of military pathology, which had been established by the War Office as part of the mobilization of medicine for the First World War. Relying on the bacteriological laboratory for the identification and control of pathogenic agents, military pathology delivered therapeutic and preventive measures against a range of battlefield diseases, and military and civilian authorities trusted that it could do the same with influenza. This article traces how it shaped efforts to establish the etiology of the pandemic and to produce a general influenza vaccine. It highlights the challenges involved in both strategies. Understanding the central role of military pathology helps make sense of the nature, direction, scale, and limitations of medical mobilization against the pandemic in Britain and the authority accorded to specific medical bodies for elaborating and coordinating strategies. Crucially, it demands that we rethink the relationship between the war and pandemic as one about the social organization of medical knowledge and institutions.

A survey of pandemic influenza preparedness and response capabilities in Chicago area hospital security departments.

PubMed

Kimmerly, David P

2009-01-01

This article is a summary based on a December 2007 paper prepared by the author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master's degree in business and organizational security management at Webster University. The project described was intended to assess Chicago-area healthcare organization security departments' preparedness and response capabilities for a potential influenza pandemic. While the author says healthcare organizations are learning from the pandemics of the past, little research has been conducted on the requirements necessary within hospital security departments. The article explores staffing, planning, preparation and response capabilities within a healthcare security context to determine existing resources available to the healthcare security community. Eleven completed surveys were received from hospital security managers throughout the geographical Chicago area. They reveal that hospital security managers are conscious of the risks of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Yet, it was found that several gaps existed within hospital security department staffing and response capabilities, as hospital security departments may not have the available resources necessary to adequately maintain their operations during a pandemic incident.

The Paradigm of the Paradox: Women, Pregnant Women, and the Unequal Burdens of the Zika Virus Pandemic.

PubMed

Harris, Lisa H; Silverman, Neil S; Marshall, Mary Faith

2016-05-01

The Zika pandemic provides biomedical scientists, clinicians, public health advocates, and governments a unique opportunity to advance reproductive justice by addressing the paradoxes outlined in this essay. The circumstances in which pregnancies occur are morally relevant to women’s reproductive life decisions, to the provision of reproductive health care, and to the development of reproductive health policy. Whether the Zika pandemic might foster context-driven reproductive pandemic planning and response is yet to be determined. Maintaining the status quo will surely increase a range of global health disparities and further stratify reproduction, producing predictable and preventable outcomes in which some people receive the necessary care and resources to achieve family building while others are neglected. Women and men should be able to count on biomedical researchers to answer the questions that need answering without undue influence from political agendas. Women should be able to continue pregnancies and count on public health assistance and help for children with Zika-related disabilities, or prevent or end a Zika-affected pregnancy. Pandemic responses that don’t further these ends are morally unacceptable.

The neuropsychiatric aspects of influenza/swine flu: A selective review

PubMed Central

Manjunatha, Narayana; Math, Suresh Bada; Kulkarni, Girish Baburao; Chaturvedi, Santosh Kumar

2011-01-01

The world witnessed the influenza virus during the seasonal epidemics and pandemics. The current strain of H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic is believed to be the legacy of the influenza pandemic (1918-19). The influenza virus has been implicated in many neuropsychiatric disorders. In view of the recent pandemic, it would be interesting to review the neuropsychiatric aspects of influenza, specifically swine flu. Author used popular search engine ‘PUBMED’ to search for published articles with different MeSH terms using Boolean operator (AND). Among these, a selective review of the published literature was done. Acute manifestations of swine flu varied from behavioral changes, fear of misdiagnosis during outbreak, neurological features like seizures, encephalopathy, encephalitis, transverse myelitis, aseptic meningitis, multiple sclerosis, and Guillian-Barre Syndrome. Among the chronic manifestations, schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease, mood disorder, dementia, and mental retardation have been hypothesized. Further research is required to understand the etiological hypothesis of the chronic manifestations of influenza. The author urges neuroscientists around the world to make use of the current swine flu pandemic as an opportunity for further research. PMID:23271861

The neuropsychiatric aspects of influenza/swine flu: A selective review.

PubMed

Manjunatha, Narayana; Math, Suresh Bada; Kulkarni, Girish Baburao; Chaturvedi, Santosh Kumar

2011-07-01

The world witnessed the influenza virus during the seasonal epidemics and pandemics. The current strain of H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic is believed to be the legacy of the influenza pandemic (1918-19). The influenza virus has been implicated in many neuropsychiatric disorders. In view of the recent pandemic, it would be interesting to review the neuropsychiatric aspects of influenza, specifically swine flu. Author used popular search engine 'PUBMED' to search for published articles with different MeSH terms using Boolean operator (AND). Among these, a selective review of the published literature was done. Acute manifestations of swine flu varied from behavioral changes, fear of misdiagnosis during outbreak, neurological features like seizures, encephalopathy, encephalitis, transverse myelitis, aseptic meningitis, multiple sclerosis, and Guillian-Barre Syndrome. Among the chronic manifestations, schizophrenia, Parkinson's disease, mood disorder, dementia, and mental retardation have been hypothesized. Further research is required to understand the etiological hypothesis of the chronic manifestations of influenza. The author urges neuroscientists around the world to make use of the current swine flu pandemic as an opportunity for further research.

Protecting vulnerable populations from pandemic influenza in the United States: a strategic imperative.

PubMed

Hutchins, Sonja S; Truman, Benedict I; Merlin, Toby L; Redd, Stephen C

2009-10-01

Protecting vulnerable populations from pandemic influenza is a strategic imperative. The US national strategy for pandemic influenza preparedness and response assigns roles to governments, businesses, civic and community-based organizations, individuals, and families. Because influenza is highly contagious, inadequate preparedness or untimely response in vulnerable populations increases the risk of infection for the general population. Recent public health emergencies have reinforced the importance of preparedness and the challenges of effective response among vulnerable populations. We explore definitions and determinants of vulnerable, at-risk, and special populations and highlight approaches for ensuring that pandemic influenza preparedness includes these populations and enables them to respond appropriately. We also provide an overview of population-specific and cross-cutting articles in this theme issue on influenza preparedness for vulnerable populations.

Protecting Vulnerable Populations From Pandemic Influenza in the United States: A Strategic Imperative

PubMed Central

Truman, Benedict I.; Merlin, Toby L.; Redd, Stephen C.

2009-01-01

Protecting vulnerable populations from pandemic influenza is a strategic imperative. The US national strategy for pandemic influenza preparedness and response assigns roles to governments, businesses, civic and community-based organizations, individuals, and families. Because influenza is highly contagious, inadequate preparedness or untimely response in vulnerable populations increases the risk of infection for the general population. Recent public health emergencies have reinforced the importance of preparedness and the challenges of effective response among vulnerable populations. We explore definitions and determinants of vulnerable, at-risk, and special populations and highlight approaches for ensuring that pandemic influenza preparedness includes these populations and enables them to respond appropriately. We also provide an overview of population-specific and cross-cutting articles in this theme issue on influenza preparedness for vulnerable populations. PMID:19797737

Origin and Evolution of the Kiwifruit Canker Pandemic

PubMed Central

Li, Li; Liu, Yifei; Li, Dawei; Pan, Hui; Zhong, Caihong; Rikkerink, Erik H.A.; Templeton, Matthew D.; Straub, Christina; Colombi, Elena

2017-01-01

Recurring epidemics of kiwifruit (Actinidia spp.) bleeding canker disease are caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa). In order to strengthen understanding of population structure, phylogeography, and evolutionary dynamics, we isolated Pseudomonas from cultivated and wild kiwifruit across six provinces in China. Based on the analysis of 80 sequenced Psa genomes, we show that China is the origin of the pandemic lineage but that strain diversity in China is confined to just a single clade. In contrast, Korea and Japan harbor strains from multiple clades. Distinct independent transmission events marked introduction of the pandemic lineage into New Zealand, Chile, Europe, Korea, and Japan. Despite high similarity within the core genome and minimal impact of within-clade recombination, we observed extensive variation even within the single clade from which the global pandemic arose. PMID:28369338

The emerging influenza virus threat: status and new prospects for its therapy and control.

PubMed

Kumar, Binod; Asha, Kumari; Khanna, Madhu; Ronsard, Larance; Meseko, Clement Adebajo; Sanicas, Melvin

2018-04-01

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are zoonotic pathogens that cause yearly outbreaks with high rates of morbidity and fatality. The virus continuously acquires point mutations while circulating in several hosts, ranging from aquatic birds to mammals, including humans. The wide range of hosts provides influenza A viruses greater chances of genetic re-assortment, leading to the emergence of zoonotic strains and occasional pandemics that have a severe impact on human life. Four major influenza pandemics have been reported to date, and health authorities worldwide have shown tremendous progress in efforts to control epidemics and pandemics. Here, we primarily discuss the pathogenesis of influenza virus type A, its epidemiology, pandemic potential, current status of antiviral drugs and vaccines, and ways to effectively manage the disease during a crisis.

[Trends in and challenges for highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1)].

PubMed

Kudo, Koichiro; Manabe, Toshie; Izumi, Shinyu; Takasaki, Jin

2010-09-01

A new pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus had emerged and rapidly spread throughout the world. The clinical pathological observations associated with severe cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 are similar to that of high pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1). In order to find the most effective treatment methods for this pandemic influenza (H1N1), we describe our experiences, investigations and collaboration studies of avian influenza (H5N1) in Vietnam in association of our cooperative study of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Mexico. Effective treatment methods for critical illness due to influenza will be discussed from medical, regional and global points of view, which may be applied for the treatment of any type of influenza virus.

Defense Civil Support: DOD, HHS, and DHS Should Use Existing Coordination Mechanisms to Improve Their Pandemic Preparedness

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

could be almost twice the total number of battlefield fatalities in all of America’s wars since the American Revolution in 1776. A pandemic...since the American Revolution in 1776.1 In comparison, the number of U.S. fatalities (approximately 650,000) from the 1918-1919 “Spanish flu” pandemic... French Polynesia and the Cook Islands. U.S. Pacific Command recently issued guidance to service members and DOD civilians to take precautions when

Description of the early stage of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Germany, 27 April-16 June 2009.

PubMed

2009-08-06

We report characteristics of the early stage of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Germany. Until 16 June 2009, 198 confirmed cases were notified. Almost half of the cases (47%) were imported, mostly from Mexico and the United States. About two third of indigenous cases were outbreak-related (with two large school-associated outbreaks, n=74). According to our results Germany is still in the early stage of the pandemic with limited domestic transmission.

Public-Private Partnerships: Critical to Combatting the Next Pandemic Influenza in the State of Kansas

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-10

Influenza A (H5N1), also known as Avian Flu or Bird Flu because it primarily affects chickens , turkeys, guinea fowls, migratory waterfowl, and other avian...difficult to predict. The 1918 "Spanish Flu ," the deadliest pandemic in history, is estimated to have killed more than 50 million people worldwide...overlooks influenza. As Dorothy Pettit and Janice Bailie suggested in their book, A Cruel Wind: Pandemic Flu in America, the general population in

Community-Acquired Pneumonia Due to Pandemic A(H1N1)2009 Influenzavirus and Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Co-Infection

PubMed Central

Murray, Ronan J.; Robinson, James O.; White, Jodi N.; Hughes, Frank; Coombs, Geoffrey W.; Pearson, Julie C.; Tan, Hui-Leen; Chidlow, Glenys; Williams, Simon; Christiansen, Keryn J.; Smith, David W.

2010-01-01

Background Bacterial pneumonia is a well described complication of influenza. In recent years, community-onset methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (cMRSA) infection has emerged as a contributor to morbidity and mortality in patients with influenza. Since the emergence and rapid dissemination of pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenzavirus in April 2009, initial descriptions of the clinical features of patients hospitalized with pneumonia have contained few details of patients with bacterial co-infection. Methodology/Principal Findings Patients with community–acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by co-infection with pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenzavirus and cMRSA were prospectively identified at two tertiary hospitals in one Australian city during July to September 2009, the period of intense influenza activity in our region. Detailed characterization of the cMRSA isolates was performed. 252 patients with pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenzavirus infection were admitted at the two sites during the period of study. Three cases of CAP due to pandemic A(H1N1)2009/cMRSA co-infection were identified. The clinical features of these patients were typical of those with S. aureus co-infection or sequential infection following influenza. The 3 patients received appropriate empiric therapy for influenza, but inappropriate empiric therapy for cMRSA infection; all 3 survived. In addition, 2 fatal cases of CAP caused by pandemic A(H1N1)2009/cMRSA co-infection were identified on post–mortem examination. The cMRSA infections were caused by three different cMRSA clones, only one of which contained genes for Panton-Valentine Leukocidin (PVL). Conclusions/Significance Clinicians managing patients with pandemic A(H1N1)2009 influenzavirus infection should be alert to the possibility of co-infection or sequential infection with virulent, antimicrobial-resistant bacterial pathogens such as cMRSA. PVL toxin is not necessary for the development of cMRSA pneumonia in the setting of pandemic A( H1N1) 2009 influenzavirus co-infection. PMID:20090931

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. Methods A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Results Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. Conclusions There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia. PMID:24090286

Intra- and Inter-Pandemic Variations of Antiviral, Antibiotics and Decongestants in Wastewater Treatment Plants and Receiving Rivers

PubMed Central

Singer, Andrew C.; Järhult, Josef D.; Grabic, Roman; Khan, Ghazanfar A.; Lindberg, Richard H.; Fedorova, Ganna; Fick, Jerker; Bowes, Michael J.; Olsen, Björn; Söderström, Hanna

2014-01-01

The concentration of eleven antibiotics (trimethoprim, oxytetracycline, ciprofloxacin, azithromycin, cefotaxime, doxycycline, sulfamethoxazole, erythromycin, clarithromycin, ofloxacin, norfloxacin), three decongestants (naphazoline, oxymetazoline, xylometazoline) and the antiviral drug oseltamivir’s active metabolite, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), were measured weekly at 21 locations within the River Thames catchment in England during the month of November 2009, the autumnal peak of the influenza A[H1N1]pdm09 pandemic. The aim was to quantify the pharmaceutical response to the pandemic and compare this to drug use during the late pandemic (March 2010) and the inter-pandemic periods (May 2011). A large and small wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) were sampled in November 2009 to understand the differential fate of the analytes in the two WWTPs prior to their entry in the receiving river and to estimate drug users using a wastewater epidemiology approach. Mean hourly OC concentrations in the small and large WWTP’s influent were 208 and 350 ng/L (max, 2070 and 550 ng/L, respectively). Erythromycin was the most concentrated antibiotic measured in Benson and Oxford WWTPs influent (max = 6,870 and 2,930 ng/L, respectively). Napthazoline and oxymetazoline were the most frequently detected and concentrated decongestant in the Benson WWTP influent (1650 and 67 ng/L) and effluent (696 and 307 ng/L), respectively, but were below detection in the Oxford WWTP. OC was found in 73% of November 2009’s weekly river samples (max = 193 ng/L), but only in 5% and 0% of the late- and inter-pandemic river samples, respectively. The mean river concentration of each antibiotic during the pandemic largely fell between 17–74 ng/L, with clarithromycin (max = 292 ng/L) and erythromycin (max = 448 ng/L) yielding the highest single measure. In general, the concentration and frequency of detecting antibiotics in the river increased during the pandemic. OC was uniquely well-suited for the wastewater epidemiology approach owing to its nature as a prodrug, recalcitrance and temporally- and spatially-resolved prescription statistics. PMID:25254643

Transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza on passenger aircraft: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Thornley, Craig N; Mills, Clair; Roberts, Sally; Perera, Shanika; Peters, Julia; Kelso, Anne; Barr, Ian; Wilson, Nick

2010-01-01

Objectives To assess the risk of transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza (pandemic A/H1N1) from an infected high school group to other passengers on an airline flight and the effectiveness of screening and follow-up of exposed passengers. Design Retrospective cohort investigation using a questionnaire administered to passengers and laboratory investigation of those with symptoms. Setting Auckland, New Zealand, with national and international follow-up of passengers. Participants Passengers seated in the rear section of a Boeing 747-400 long haul flight that arrived on 25 April 2009, including a group of 24 students and teachers and 97 (out of 102) other passengers in the same section of the plane who agreed to be interviewed. Main outcome measures Laboratory confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 infection in susceptible passengers within 3.2 days of arrival; sensitivity and specificity of influenza symptoms for confirmed infection; and completeness and timeliness of contact tracing. Results Nine members of the school group were laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic A/H1N1 infection and had symptoms during the flight. Two other passengers developed confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 infection, 12 and 48 hours after the flight. They reported no other potential sources of infection. Their seating was within two rows of infected passengers, implying a risk of infection of about 3.5% for the 57 passengers in those rows. All but one of the confirmed pandemic A/H1N1 infected travellers reported cough, but more complex definitions of influenza cases had relatively low sensitivity. Rigorous follow-up by public health workers located 93% of passengers, but only 52% were contacted within 72 hours of arrival. Conclusions A low but measurable risk of transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 exists during modern commercial air travel. This risk is concentrated close to infected passengers with symptoms. Follow-up and screening of exposed passengers is slow and difficult once they have left the airport. PMID:20495017

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

PubMed

Schwanke Khilji, Sara U; Rudge, James W; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

2013-10-04

Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.

Organizational collaborative capacity in fighting pandemic crises: a literature review from the public management perspective.

PubMed

Lai, Allen Y

2012-01-01

Collaborative capacity serves for organizations as the capacity to collaborate with other network players. Organizational capacity matters as collaboration outcomes usually go beyond single-shot implementation efforts or a single-minded focus on either the vertical dimension of program or the horizontal component. This review article explores organizational collaborative capacities from the perspective of public management, in particular, network theory. By applying the 5 attributes of network theory-interdependence, membership, resources, information, and learning-to the explanation of collaborative capacity in fighting pandemic crises, I argue in some ways organizational collaborative capacity is very much like an organization in its own right. Studying collaborative capacity in the battle against pandemics facilitate our understanding of multisectoral collaboration in technical, political, and institutional dimensions, and greatly advances the richness of capacity vocabulary in pandemic response and preparedness.

Structural Basis of Preexisting Immunity to the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Rui; Ekiert, Damian C.; Krause, Jens C.

The 2009 H1N1 swine flu is the first influenza pandemic in decades. The crystal structure of the hemagglutinin from the A/California/04/2009 H1N1 virus shows that its antigenic structure, particularly within the Sa antigenic site, is extremely similar to those of human H1N1 viruses circulating early in the 20th century. The cocrystal structure of the 1918 hemagglutinin with 2D1, an antibody from a survivor of the 1918 Spanish flu that neutralizes both 1918 and 2009 H1N1 viruses, reveals an epitope that is conserved in both pandemic viruses. Thus, antigenic similarity between the 2009 and 1918-like viruses provides an explanation for themore » age-related immunity to the current influenza pandemic.« less

Pandemic pharmaceutical dosing effects on wastewater treatment: no adaptation of activated sludge bacteria to degrade the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) and loss of nutrient removal performance.

PubMed

Slater, Frances R; Singer, Andrew C; Turner, Susan; Barr, Jeremy J; Bond, Philip L

2011-02-01

The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic saw many people treated with antivirals and antibiotics. High proportions of both classes of drugs are excreted and enter wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in biologically active forms. To date, there has been no study into the potential for influenza pandemic-scale pharmaceutical use to disrupt WWTP function. Furthermore, there is currently little indication as to whether WWTP microbial consortia can degrade antiviral neuraminidase inhibitors when exposed to pandemic-scale doses. In this study, we exposed an aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactor, operated for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR), to a simulated influenza-pandemic dosing of antibiotics and antivirals for 8 weeks. We monitored the removal of the active form of Tamiflu(®), oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), bacterial community structure, granule structure and changes in EBPR and nitrification performance. There was little removal of OC by sludge and no evidence that the activated sludge community adapted to degrade OC. There was evidence of changes to the bacterial community structure and disruption to EBPR and nitrification during and after high-OC dosing. This work highlights the potential for the antiviral contamination of receiving waters and indicates the risk of destabilizing WWTP microbial consortia as a result of high concentrations of bioactive pharmaceuticals during an influenza pandemic. © 2010 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Willingness to volunteer during an influenza pandemic: perspectives from students and staff at a large Canadian university.

PubMed

Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Bailey, Tracey; Haines, Christina; Lake, Robert; Herman, Benjamin; Yonge, Olive; Marrie, Thomas J

2008-03-01

A future influenza pandemic will require greater demand on numerous essential services and a reduced capacity to meet that demand. Recruitment of volunteers is an important issue for pre-pandemic planning. To identify factors and attitudes towards volunteerism in the event of a pandemic of influenza. A 42-item web-questionnaire was administered to all faculty, staff and students at the University of Alberta. Respondents indicated their willingness to volunteer. Responses were dichotomized and logistic regression models were developed to capture the association between willingness to volunteer and (i) demographic and information source variables, (ii) risk perception and general knowledge, and (iii) volunteering attitudes and priority access variables. Many factors predicted willingness to volunteer and several involved interactions with other variables. Individuals who were older, relied on University Health Centre information and who had past volunteerism experience were generally more likely to be willing to volunteer. Those willing to volunteer were more likely to think spread could be prevented by covering mouth when coughing/sneezing, and treatment would include drinking fluids. Those who thought influenza would be treated by antibiotics were less willing to volunteer. Likely volunteers thought that healthcare students should be encouraged to volunteer if there was a healthcare worker shortage. This study provides guidance for those who are preparing universities to deal with pandemic influenza. The results suggest factors that might be important in the recruitment of volunteers during an influenza pandemic and these factors might be relevant for other sectors as well.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Saudi Arabia: description of the first one hundred cases.

PubMed

AlMazroa, Mohammad A; Memish, Ziad A; AlWadey, Ali M

2010-01-01

In April 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared pandemic influenza A (H1N1) "public health emergency of international concern". On June 11, 2009, WHO raised the pandemic alert level to phase 6, indicating a global pandemic. By December 2009, more than 208 countries and territories had reported swine flu cases. The descriptive epidemiology of the first reported 100 cases of this virus in Saudi Arabia are summarized in this report. Data were collected from 1 June to 3 July, 2009 using a predesigned questionnaire. Questionnaires were filled by Field Epidemiology Training Program residents. Data for the first 100 complete cases of confirmed pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were compiled and analyzed. The age of reported cases was in the range of 1 to 56 years. The highest percentage of cases was in the age group of 20 to 30 years followed by the age group of 1 to 10 years. Females represented 55% of the cases; imported cases represented 47%, 58% of whom had come via the King Khaled Airport. The most common nationalities most were from Saudi Arabia and the Philippines. The main symptoms were fever (56%), cough (54%), and sore throat and the number of cases was seen to peak from the 27 to 29 June. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) is still a threat to Saudi Arabia. Thus, comprehensive and effective measures for surveillance and prevention of the disease are needed to control its spread.

[Laboratory diagnosis of pandemic influenza at the Department of Medical Microbiology of the Regional Authority of Public Health based in Banská Bystrica in the season 2009-2010].

PubMed

Kissová, R; Mad'arová, L; Klement, C

2011-02-01

The Department of Medical Microbiology of the Regional Authority of Public Health (RAPH) in Banská Bystrica serves as a catchment laboratory of virology for the Central Slovakia Region, and in the influenza season 2009/10, it also served as such for the East Slovakia Region. Specimens (nasopharyngeal swabs and post-mortem specimens) from patients with suspected influenza were obtained from both sentinel and non-sentinel physicians. The specimens were analyzed by a rapid test, followed by real-time PCR (RT-PCR) for influenza A or B diagnosis. RT-PCR subtyping for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 was performed. From May 2009 to June 2010, 2497 specimens were analyzed for the presence of influenza A and B viruses and in particular for the presence of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus. As many as 537 of 589 influenza A-positive specimens, i.e. 21.5% of all specimens analyzed and 91.2% of influenza A-positive specimens, were subtyped as pandemic influenza A/H1N1. In the influenza season 2009/10, the new pandemic influenza A/H1N1 clearly predominated in Central and Eastern Slovakia. PCR tests have played a key role in diagnosing patients with suspected pandemic influenza in the laboratory participating in the surveillance of influenza and influenza-like illness in the Slovak Republic.

AF03-adjuvanted and non-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccines induce strong antibody responses in seasonal influenza vaccine-primed and unprimed mice.

PubMed

Caillet, Catherine; Piras, Fabienne; Bernard, Marie-Clotilde; de Montfort, Aymeric; Boudet, Florence; Vogel, Frederick R; Hoffenbach, Agnès; Moste, Catherine; Kusters, Inca

2010-04-19

Pandemic influenza vaccines have been manufactured using the A/California/07/2009 (H1N1) strain as recommended by the World Health Organization. We evaluated in mice the immunogenicity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine and the impact of prior vaccination against seasonal trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) on antibody responses against pandemic (H1N1) 2009. In naïve mice, a single dose of unadjuvanted H1N1 vaccine (3 microg of HA) was shown to elicit hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titers >40, a titer associated with protection in humans against seasonal influenza. A second vaccine dose of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine strongly increased these titers, which were consistently higher in mice previously primed with TIV than in naïve mice. At a low immunization dose (0.3 microg of HA), the AF03-adjuvanted vaccine elicited higher HI antibody titers than the corresponding unadjuvanted vaccines in both naïve and TIV-primed animals, suggesting a potential for antigen dose-sparing. These results are in accordance with the use in humans of a split-virion inactivated pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine formulated with or without AF03 adjuvant to protect children and young adults against influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemic waves of cholera in the last two decades in Mozambique.

PubMed

Langa, José Paulo; Sema, Cynthia; De Deus, Nilsa; Colombo, Mauro Maria; Taviani, Elisa

2015-07-04

Africa is increasingly affected by cholera. In Mozambique, cholera appeared in the early 1970s when the seventh pandemic entered Africa from the Indian subcontinent. In the following decades, several epidemics were registered in the country, the 1997-1999 epidemic being the most extended. Since then, Mozambique has been considered an endemic area for cholera, characterized by yearly outbreaks occurring with a seasonal pattern. At least three pandemic variants are thought to have originated in the Indian subcontinent and spread worldwide at different times. To understand the epidemiology of cholera in Mozambique, whether the disease re-emerges periodically or is imported by different routes of transmission, we investigated clinical V. cholerae O1 isolated during 1997-1999 and 2012-2014 epidemics. By detecting and characterizing seven genetic elements, the mobilome profile of each isolate was obtained. By comparing it to known seventh pandemic reference strains, it was possible to discern among different V. cholerae O1 variants active in the country. During 1997-1999, epidemic strains showed two different genetic profiles, both related to a pandemic clone that originated from India and was reported in other African countries in the 1990s. Isolates from 2012-2014 outbreaks showed a genetic background related to the pandemic strains currently active as the prevalent causative agent of cholera worldwide. Despite cholera being endemic in Mozambique, the epidemiology of the disease in the past 20 years has been strongly influenced by the cholera seventh pandemic waves that originated in the Indian subcontinent.

Pandemic influenza communication: views from a deliberative forum.

PubMed

Rogers, Wendy A; Street, Jackie M; Braunack-Mayer, Annette J; Hiller, Janet E

2009-09-01

To use a deliberative forum to elicit community perspectives on communication about pandemic influenza planning, and to compare these findings with the current Australian national communication strategy. Deliberative forum of 12 persons randomly selected from urban South Australia. Forum members were briefed by experts in infection control, virology, ethics and public policy before deliberating on four key questions: what, how and when should the community be told about pandemic influenza and by whom? The forum recommended provision of detailed and comprehensive information by credible experts, rather than politicians, using a variety of media including television and internet. Recommendations included cumulative communication to build expertise in the community, and specific strategies to include groups such as young people, people with physical or mental disabilities, and rural and remote communities. Information provided should be practical, accurate, and timely, with no 'holding back' about the seriousness of a pandemic. The forum expressed confidence in the expert witnesses, despite the acknowledged uncertainty of many of the predictions. The deliberative forum's recommendations were largely consistent with the Australian national pandemic influenza communication strategy and the relevant literature. However, the forum recommended: release of more detailed information than currently proposed in the national strategy; use of non-political spokespersons; and use of novel communication methods. Their acceptance of uncertainty suggests that policy makers should be open about the limits of knowledge in potentially threatening situations. Our findings show that deliberative forums can provide community perspectives on topics such as communication about pandemic influenza.

[Survey about responsiveness of third-level hospitals to a medical disaster: after the pandemic influenza in Mexico].

PubMed

Serna-Ojeda, Juan Carlos; Castañón-González, Jorge Alberto; Macías, Alejandro E; Mansilla-Olivares, Armando; Domínguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Polanco-González, Carlos

2012-01-01

The recent pandemic influenza AH1N1 virus made it clear that planning for medical disaster response is critical. To know the responsiveness of a sample of highly specialized hospitals in Mexico to a medical disaster, with the previous pandemic influenza AH1N1 as reference. A survey was conducted among the Medical Directors of a sample of highly specialized hospitals, covering: previous experience with the pandemic influenza, space considerations, material resources, staff, logistics, and current general perspectives. Descriptive statistics were used for analysis. A 95% response was obtained from the institutions (19 hospitals). Of these, 47.4% considered that the medical institution was not ready to respond to pandemic influenza. The median surge capacity for the Intensive Care Unit beds was 30% (range 0 to 32 beds). The least reserve in medication was found in the antivirals (26.3%). Only 47.4% considered having enough intensive care nurses and 57.9% enough respiratory technicians; 42.1% would not have an easy access to resources in an emergency. Prevention is key in responsiveness to medical disasters, and therefore the basic steps for planning strategies must be considered.

A pandemic influenza modeling and visualization tool

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maciejewski, Ross; Livengood, Philip; Rudolph, Stephen

2011-08-01

The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza outlines a plan for community response to a potential pandemic. In this outline, state and local communities are charged with enhancing their preparedness. In order to help public health officials better understand these charges, we have developed a modeling and visualization toolkit (PanViz) for analyzing the effect of decision measures implemented during a simulated pandemic influenza scenario. Spread vectors based on the point of origin and distance traveled over time are calculated and the factors of age distribution and population density are taken into effect. Healthcare officials are able to explore the effects ofmore » the pandemic on the population through a spatiotemporal view, moving forward and backward through time and inserting decision points at various days to determine the impact. Linked statistical displays are also shown, providing county level summaries of data in terms of the number of sick, hospitalized and dead as a result of the outbreak. Currently, this tool has been deployed in Indiana State Department of Health planning and preparedness exercises, and as an educational tool for demonstrating the impact of social distancing strategies during the recent H1N1 (swine flu) outbreak.« less

Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. Methods We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. Results We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. Conclusions We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison. PMID:23651557

Provision of pandemic disease information by health sciences librarians: a multisite comparative case series.

PubMed

Featherstone, Robin M; Boldt, R Gabriel; Torabi, Nazi; Konrad, Shauna-Lee

2012-04-01

The research provides an understanding of pandemic information needs and informs professional development initiatives for librarians in disaster medicine. Utilizing a multisite, comparative case series design, the researchers conducted semi-structured interviews and examined supplementary materials in the form of organizational documents, correspondence, and websites to create a complete picture of each case. The rigor of the case series was ensured through data and investigator triangulation. Interview transcripts were coded using NVivo to identify common themes and points of comparison. Comparison of the four cases revealed a distinct difference between "client-initiated" and "librarian-initiated" provision of pandemic information. Librarian-initiated projects utilized social software to "push" information, whereas client-initiated projects operated within patron-determined parameters to deliver information. Health care administrators were identified as a key audience for pandemic information, and news agencies were utilized as essential information sources. Librarians' skills at evaluating available information proved crucial for selecting best-quality evidence to support administrative decision making. Qualitative analysis resulted in increased understanding of pandemic information needs and identified best practices for disseminating information during periods of high organizational stress caused by an influx of new cases of an unknown infectious disease.

[Risk communication during health crises: results of a cross-sectional study to evaluate the effectiveness of adopted corporate communication strategies during the H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy and on the training needs of health professionals].

PubMed

De Giusti, Maria; Mannocci, Alice; Miccoli, Silvia; Palazzo, Caterina; Di Thiene, Domitilla; Scalmato, Valeria; Ursillo, Paolo; Monteduro, Maria Antonietta; Turri, Alberto; Mazzoli, Pier Giovanni; Boccia, Antonio; La Torre, Giuseppe

2012-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness of corporate communication activities carried out during the A(H1N1) pandemic influenza in Italy and to identify educational needs of health professionals with regards to crisis communication. The study compared two samples representing respectively the general population and health professionals, living in different regions of northern, central and southern Italy. A self-administered questionnaire was used, with questions on knowledge about preventive measures during a pandemic and on satisfaction with the adopted communication campaigns. Study results highlight that both samples had very little knowledge of appropriate preventive behaviors to be adopted during a pandemic. The sample of health professionals received a greater amount of information about the pandemic with respect to the general population and showed a strong interest toward the problem of receiving adequate training in risk communication. The degree of knowledge about preventive measures is directly proportional to the existence of institutional communication activities and to having consulted a health professional.

Outbreaks of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and Seasonal Influenza A (H3N2) on Cruise Ship

PubMed Central

Ward, Kate A.; Armstrong, Paul; Iwasenko, Jenna M.; Dwyer, Dominic E.

2010-01-01

To determine the extent and pattern of influenza transmission and effectiveness of containment measures, we investigated dual outbreaks of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and influenza A (H3N2) that had occurred on a cruise ship in May 2009. Of 1,970 passengers and 734 crew members, 82 (3.0%) were infected with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, 98 (3.6%) with influenza A (H3N2) virus, and 2 (0.1%) with both. Among 45 children who visited the ship’s childcare center, infection rate for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was higher than that for influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Disembarked passengers reported a high level of compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. We found 4 subsequent cases epidemiologically linked to passengers but no evidence of sustained transmission to the community or passengers on the next cruise. Among this population of generally healthy passengers, children seemed more susceptible to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 than to influenza (H3N2) viruses. Intensive disease control measures successfully contained these outbreaks. PMID:21029531

Outbreaks of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and seasonal influenza A (H3N2) on cruise ship.

PubMed

Ward, Kate A; Armstrong, Paul; McAnulty, Jeremy M; Iwasenko, Jenna M; Dwyer, Dominic E

2010-11-01

To determine the extent and pattern of influenza transmission and effectiveness of containment measures, we investigated dual outbreaks of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and influenza A (H3N2) that had occurred on a cruise ship in May 2009. Of 1,970 passengers and 734 crew members, 82 (3.0%) were infected with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, 98 (3.6%) with influenza A (H3N2) virus, and 2 (0.1%) with both. Among 45 children who visited the ship's childcare center, infection rate for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was higher than that for influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Disembarked passengers reported a high level of compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. We found 4 subsequent cases epidemiologically linked to passengers but no evidence of sustained transmission to the community or passengers on the next cruise. Among this population of generally healthy passengers, children seemed more susceptible to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 than to influenza (H3N2) viruses. Intensive disease control measures successfully contained these outbreaks.

A Comprehensive Laboratory Animal Facility Pandemic Response Plan

PubMed Central

Roble, Gordon S; Lingenhol, Naomi M; Baker, Bryan; Wilkerson, Amy; Tolwani, Ravi J

2010-01-01

The potential of a severe influenza pandemic necessitates the development of an organized, rational plan for continued laboratory animal facility operation without compromise of the welfare of animals. A comprehensive laboratory animal program pandemic response plan was integrated into a university-wide plan. Preparation involved input from all levels of organizational hierarchy including the IACUC. Many contingencies and operational scenarios were considered based on the severity and duration of the influenza pandemic. Trigger points for systematic action steps were based on the World Health Organization's phase alert criteria. One extreme scenario requires hibernation of research operations and maintenance of reduced numbers of laboratory animal colonies for a period of up to 6 mo. This plan includes active recruitment and cross-training of volunteers for essential personnel positions, protective measures for employee and family health, logistical arrangements for delivery and storage of food and bedding, the removal of waste, and the potential for euthanasia. Strategies such as encouraging and subsidizing cryopreservation of unique strains were undertaken to protect valuable research assets and intellectual property. Elements of this plan were put into practice after escalation of the pandemic alerts due to influenza A (H1N1) in April 2009. PMID:20858365

Influence of country of study on student responsiveness to the H1N1 pandemic.

PubMed

Griffiths, S M; Wong, A H; Kim, J H; Yung, T K C; Lau, J T F

2010-08-01

University students, both travelling abroad on holiday or exchange students entering a country, can serve as mobile carriers of infectious diseases during a pandemic, and thus require special attention when considering preventive measures. The objectives of this study were to evaluate student compliance and opinions on preventive measures of a university before and during an H1N1 influenza pandemic, and to explore environmental and behavioural factors that might contribute towards compliance. Cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire. Local and foreign students attending an international summer school programme were invited to participate in a self-administered survey. Respondents complied with most of the preventive measures, excluding website viewing and mask wearing. Significant differences in compliance and perceived necessity were found amongst students from Singapore, Hong Kong and the USA. Singaporean students were significantly more likely to comply with all measures and consume antiviral medication in response to the pandemic than students studying in the US. Students' responses towards university pandemic measures were largely positive, but sensitivity towards these measures varied between groups by country of study. This should be considered in further comparative studies. Copyright 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparing for pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri

2008-01-01

Influenza is a highly contagious, acute febrile respiratory illness that results in global morbidity and mortality annually. Avian influenza (H5N1) has the potential to cause a pandemic. Avian influenza's epidemiology and clinical description, including common signs/symptoms, transmission, vaccination, and treatment, are presented. Recommended isolation practices for labor and delivery, and proper procedures for identifying and managing infected patients are provided. Potential maternal and newborn outcomes related to influenza and avian influenza are discussed. Pandemic planning issues are outlined, including hospital surge capacity, medical equipment and staffing availability, and the need for altered standards of care. Communities need to designate sites (whether in hospital or in alternative care centers) for labor and delivery services as part of their disaster plan. Pregnant women and newborns are vulnerable groups during routine times and are expected to be disproportionately affected during a pandemic in terms of morbidity and mortality. Therefore, it is essential that hospitals and communities take steps to protect these vulnerable groups as part of the disaster planning process. It is not known whether or when a pandemic will occur, but perinatal and neonatal nurses should become familiar with avian influenza's clinical description and proper infection control procedures to halt potential disease spread.

Pandemic influenza computer model (no soundtrack)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Los Alamos National Lab

2009-05-01

Simulation of a pandemic flu outbreak in the continental United States, initially introduced by the arrival of 10 infected individuals in Los Angeles. ----------The spatiotemporal dynamics of the prevalence (number of symptomatic cases at any point in

Avian Influenza A Virus Infections in Humans

MedlinePlus

... label> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Avian Influenza A Virus Infections ... label> Archived Flu Emails Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Language: English (US) Español File ...

Influenza Pandemic: Continued Focus on the Nation's Planning and Preparedness Efforts Remains Essential. Testimony before the Ad Hoc Subcommittee on State, Local, and Private Sector Preparedness and Integration, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. GAO-09-760T

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinhardt, Bernice

2009-01-01

As the recent outbreak of the H1N1 (swine flu) virus underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation and to the world. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has conducted a body of work to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In a February 2009 report, GAO synthesized the…

Optimizing Tactics for Use of the U.S. Antiviral Strategic National Stockpile for Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Nedialko B.; Goll, Sebastian; Hupert, Nathaniel; Pourbohloul, Babak; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2011-01-01

In 2009, public health agencies across the globe worked to mitigate the impact of the swine-origin influenza A (pH1N1) virus. These efforts included intensified surveillance, social distancing, hygiene measures, and the targeted use of antiviral medications to prevent infection (prophylaxis). In addition, aggressive antiviral treatment was recommended for certain patient subgroups to reduce the severity and duration of symptoms. To assist States and other localities meet these needs, the U.S. Government distributed a quarter of the antiviral medications in the Strategic National Stockpile within weeks of the pandemic's start. However, there are no quantitative models guiding the geo-temporal distribution of the remainder of the Stockpile in relation to pandemic spread or severity. We present a tactical optimization model for distributing this stockpile for treatment of infected cases during the early stages of a pandemic like 2009 pH1N1, prior to the wide availability of a strain-specific vaccine. Our optimization method efficiently searches large sets of intervention strategies applied to a stochastic network model of pandemic influenza transmission within and among U.S. cities. The resulting optimized strategies depend on the transmissability of the virus and postulated rates of antiviral uptake and wastage (through misallocation or loss). Our results suggest that an aggressive community-based antiviral treatment strategy involving early, widespread, pro-rata distribution of antivirals to States can contribute to slowing the transmission of mildly transmissible strains, like pH1N1. For more highly transmissible strains, outcomes of antiviral use are more heavily impacted by choice of distribution intervals, quantities per shipment, and timing of shipments in relation to pandemic spread. This study supports previous modeling results suggesting that appropriate antiviral treatment may be an effective mitigation strategy during the early stages of future influenza pandemics, increasing the need for systematic efforts to optimize distribution strategies and provide tactical guidance for public health policy-makers. PMID:21283514

Health and economic benefits of early vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions for a human influenza A (H7N9) pandemic: a modeling study.

PubMed

Khazeni, Nayer; Hutton, David W; Collins, Cassandra I F; Garber, Alan M; Owens, Douglas K

2014-05-20

Vaccination for the 2009 pandemic did not occur until late in the outbreak, which limited its benefits. Influenza A (H7N9) is causing increasing morbidity and mortality in China, and researchers have modified the A (H5N1) virus to transmit via aerosol, which again heightens concerns about pandemic influenza preparedness. To determine how quickly vaccination should be completed to reduce infections, deaths, and health care costs in a pandemic with characteristics similar to influenza A (H7N9) and A (H5N1). Dynamic transmission model to estimate health and economic consequences of a severe influenza pandemic in a large metropolitan city. Literature and expert opinion. Residents of a U.S. metropolitan city with characteristics similar to New York City. Lifetime. Societal. Vaccination of 30% of the population at 4 or 6 months. Infections and deaths averted and cost-effectiveness. In 12 months, 48 254 persons would die. Vaccinating at 9 months would avert 2365 of these deaths. Vaccinating at 6 months would save 5775 additional lives and $51 million at a city level. Accelerating delivery to 4 months would save an additional 5633 lives and $50 million. If vaccination were delayed for 9 months, reducing contacts by 8% through nonpharmaceutical interventions would yield a similar reduction in infections and deaths as vaccination at 4 months. The model is not designed to evaluate programs targeting specific populations, such as children or persons with comorbid conditions. Vaccination in an influenza A (H7N9) pandemic would need to be completed much faster than in 2009 to substantially reduce morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. Maximizing non-pharmaceutical interventions can substantially mitigate the pandemic until a matched vaccine becomes available. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, National Institutes of Health, and Department of Veterans Affairs.

Accounting for personal and professional choices for pandemic influenza vaccination amongst English healthcare workers.

PubMed

Marcu, Afrodita; Rubinstein, Helena; Michie, Susan; Yardley, Lucy

2015-05-05

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are encouraged to get vaccinated during influenza pandemics to reduce their own, and patients', risk of infection, and to encourage their patients to get immunised. Despite extensive research on HCWs' receipt of vaccination, little is known about how HCWs articulate pandemic influenza vaccination advice to patients. To explore HCWs' uptake of the A/H1N1 vaccine during the pandemic of 2009-2010, their recommendations to patients at the time, and their anticipated choices around influenza vaccination under different pandemic scenarios. We conducted semi-structured interviews and focus groups with eight vaccinated and seventeen non-vaccinated HCWs from primary care practices in England. The data was analysed using thematic analysis. The HCWs constructed their receipt of vaccination as a personal choice informed by personal health history and perceptions of vaccine safety, while they viewed patients' vaccination as choices made following informed consent and medical guidelines. Some HCWs received the A/H1N1 vaccine under the influence of their local practice organizational norms and values. While non-vaccinated HCWs regarded patients' vaccination as patients' choice, some vaccinated HCWs saw it also as a public health issue. The non-vaccinated HCWs emphasised that they would not allow their personal choices to influence the advice they gave to patients, whereas some vaccinated HCWs believed that by getting vaccinated themselves they could provide a reassuring example to patients, particularly those who have concerns about influenza vaccination. All HCWs indicated they would accept vaccination under the severe pandemic scenario. However, most non-vaccinated HCWs expressed reticence to vaccinate under the mild pandemic scenario. Providing evidence-based arguments about the safety of new vaccines and the priority of public health over personal choice, and creating strong social norms for influenza vaccination as part of the organizational culture, should increase uptake of influenza vaccination among primary care HCWs and their patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pre‐pandemic planning survey of healthcare workers at a tertiary care children’s hospital: ethical and workforce issues

PubMed Central

Cowden, Jessica; Crane, Lori; Lezotte, Dennis; Glover, Jacqueline; Nyquist, Ann‐Christine

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Cowden et al. (2010). Pre‐pandemic planning survey of healthcare workers at a tertiary care children’s hospital: ethical and workforce issues. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(4), 213–222. Background  Prior to the development of written policies and procedures for pandemic influenza, worker perceptions of ethical and workforce issues must be identified. Objective  To determine the relationship between healthcare worker (HCW) reporting willingness to work during a pandemic and perception of job importance, belief that one will be asked to work, and sense of professionalism and to assess HCW’s opinions regarding specific policy issues as well as barriers and motivators to work during a pandemic. Methods  A survey was conducted in HCWs at The Children’s Hospital in Denver, Colorado, from February to June 2007. Characteristics of workers reporting willingness to work during a pandemic were compared with those who were unwilling or unsure. Importance of barriers and motivators was compared by gender and willingness to work. Results Sixty percent of respondents reported willingness to work (overall response rate of 31%). Belief one will be asked to work (OR 4·6, P < 0·0001) and having a high level of professionalism (OR 8·6, P < 0·0001) were associated with reporting willingness to work. Hospital infrastructure support staffs were less likely to report willingness to work during a pandemic than clinical healthcare professionals (OR 0·39, P < 0·001). Concern for personal safety, concern for safety of family, family’s concern for safety, and childcare issues were all important barriers to coming to work. Conclusions  Educational programs should focus on professional responsibility and the importance of staying home when ill. Targeted programs toward hospital infrastructure support and patient and family support staff stressing the essential nature of these jobs may improve willingness to work. PMID:20836796

From containment to community: Trigger points from the London pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza incident response.

PubMed

Balasegaram, S; Glasswell, A; Cleary, V; Turbitt, D; McCloskey, B

2011-02-01

In the UK, during the first wave of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza, a national 'containment' strategy was employed from 25 April to 2 July 2009, with case finding, treatment of cases, contact tracing and prophylaxis of close contacts. The aim of the strategy was to delay the introduction and spread of pandemic flu in the UK, provide a better understanding of the course of the novel disease, and thereby allow more time for the development of treatment and vaccination options. Descriptive study of the management of the containment phase of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza. Analysis of data reported to the London Flu Response Centre (LFRC). The average number of telephone calls and faxes per day from health professionals before 15 June 2009 was 188, but this started to rise from 363 on 12 June, to 674 on 15 June, and peaked on 22 June at 2206 calls. The number of cases confirmed [by pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza specific H1 and N1 polymerase chain reaction] in London rose to a peak of 200 cases per day. There were widespread school outbreaks reporting large numbers of absences with influenza-like illnesses. Activity in the LFRC intensified to a point where London was declared a 'hot spot' for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza on 19 June 2009 because of sustained community transmission. The local incident response was modified to the 'outbreak management phase' of the containment phase. The sharp rise in the number of telephone calls and the rise in school outbreaks appeared to be trigger points for community transmission. These indicators should inform decisions on modifying public health strategy in pandemic situations. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influenza Infection Control Practices in Labor and Delivery Units During the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic

PubMed Central

Williams, Jennifer L.; Mersereau, Patricia W.; Ruch-Ross, Holly; Zapata, Lauren B.; Ruhl, Catherine

2015-01-01

Objective To assess the presence and usefulness of written policies and practices on infection control consistent with the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) guidance in hospital labor and delivery (L&D) units during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Setting Online survey. Participants Of 11,845 eligible nurses, 2,641 (22%) participated. This analysis includes a subset of 1,866 nurses who worked exclusively in L&D units. Methods A cross-sectional descriptive evaluation was sent to 12,612 members from the Association of Women’s Health, Obstetric, and Neonatal Nurses (AWHONN) who reported working in labor, delivery, postpartum, or newborn care settings during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Results Respondents (73.8%) reported that CDC guidance was very useful for infection control in L&D settings during the pandemic. We assessed the presence of the following infection control written policies, consistent with CDC’s guidance in hospital L&D units, during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic and their rate of implementation most of the time: questioning women upon arrival about recent flu-like symptoms (89.4%, 89.9%), immediate initiation of antiviral medicines if flu suspected or confirmed (65.2%, 49%), isolating ill women from healthy women immediately (90.7%, 84.7%), ask ill women to wear masks during L&D (67%, 57.7%), immediately separating healthy newborns from ill mothers (50.9%, 42.4%), and bathing healthy infants when stable (58.4%, 56.9%). Reported written policies for five of the six practices increased during the pandemic. Five of six written policies remained above baseline after the pandemic. Conclusions Respondents considered CDC guidance very useful. The presence of written policies is important for the implementation of infection control practices by L&D nurses. PMID:24020478

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2016-04-01

A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Infection with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic: Evidence from a longitudinal seroepidemiologic study in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

PubMed

Nasreen, Sharifa; Rahman, Mustafizur; Hancock, Kathy; Katz, Jacqueline M; Goswami, Doli; Sturm-Ramirez, Katharine; Holiday, Crystal; Jefferson, Stacie; Branch, Alicia; Wang, David; Veguilla, Vic; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Fry, Alicia M; Brooks, W Abdullah

2017-09-01

We determined influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 antibody levels before and after the first wave of the pandemic in an urban community in Dhaka, Bangladesh. We identified a cohort of households by stratified random sampling. We collected baseline serum specimens during July-August 2009, just prior to the initial wave of the 2009 pandemic in this community and a second specimen during November 2009, after the pandemic peak. Paired sera were tested for antibodies against A(H1N1)pdm09 virus using microneutralization assay and hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. A fourfold increase in antibody titer by either assay with a titer of ≥40 in the convalescent sera was considered a seroconversion. At baseline, an HI titer of ≥40 was considered seropositive. We collected information on clinical illness from weekly home visits. We tested 779 paired sera from the participants. At baseline, before the pandemic wave, 1% overall and 3% of persons >60 years old were seropositive. After the first wave of the pandemic, 211 (27%) individuals seroconverted against A(H1N1)pdm09. Children aged 5-17 years had the highest proportion (37%) of seroconversion. Among 264 (34%) persons with information on clinical illness, 191 (72%) had illness >3 weeks prior to collection of the follow-up sera and 73 (38%) seroconverted. Sixteen (22%) of these 73 seroconverted participants reported no clinical illness. After the first pandemic wave in Dhaka, one in four persons were infected by A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and the highest burden of infection was among the school-aged children. Seroprevalence studies supplement traditional surveillance systems to estimate infection burden. © 2017 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using evidence-based medicine to protect healthcare workers from pandemic influenza: Is it possible?

PubMed

Gralton, Jan; McLaws, Mary-Louise

2011-01-01

To use evidence-based principles to develop infection control algorithms to ensure the protection of healthcare workers and the continuity of health service provision during a pandemic. : Evidence-based algorithms were developed from published research as well as "needs and values" assessments. Research evidence was obtained from 97 studies reporting the protectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal vaccination, and mask use. Needs and values assessments were undertaken by international experts in pandemic infection control and local healthcare workers. Opportunity and resources costs were not determined. The Australian government commissioned the development of an evidence-based algorithm for inclusion in the 2008 revision of the Australian Health and Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Two international infection control teams responsible for healthcare worker safety during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak reviewed the evidence-based algorithms. The algorithms were then reviewed for needs and values by eight local clinicians who were considered key frontline clinicians during the contain and sustain phases. The international teams reviewed for practicability of implementation, whereas local clinicians reviewed for clinician compliance. Despite strong evidence for vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis providing significant protection, clinicians believed they required the additional combinations of both masks and face shields. Despite the equivocal evidence for the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks and the provision of algorithms appropriate for the level of risk according to clinical care during a pandemic, clinicians still demanded N95 masks plus face shields in combination with prophylaxis and novel vaccination. Conventional evidence-based principles could not be applied to formulate recommendations due to the lack of pandemic-specific efficacy data of protection tools and the inherent unpredictability of pandemics. As an alternative, evidence-based principles have been used to formulate recommendations while giving priority to the needs and values of healthcare workers over the research evidence.

Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Laar, Amos; DeBruin, Debra

2015-05-07

Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the risk of rolling out unjust and ethically indefensible actions with real negative effects in the event of a pandemic. Soliciting inputs from the public and consultation with ethicists during the next revision of the NISPPI will be useful in addressing these issues.

The 1918 influenza pandemic in New York City: age-specific timing, mortality, and transmission dynamics

PubMed Central

Yang, Wan; Petkova, Elisaveta; Shaman, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

Background The 1918 influenza pandemic caused disproportionately high mortality among certain age groups. The mechanisms underlying these differences are not fully understood. Objectives To explore the dynamics of the 1918 pandemic and to identify potential age-specific transmission patterns. Methods We examined 1915–1923 daily mortality data in New York City (NYC) and estimated the outbreak duration and initial effective reproductive number (Re) for each 1-year age cohort. Results Four pandemic waves occurred from February 1918 to April 1920. The fractional mortality increase (i.e. ratio of excess mortality to baseline mortality) was highest among teenagers during the first wave. This peak shifted to 25- to 29-year-olds in subsequent waves. The distribution of age-specific mortality during the last three waves was strongly correlated (r = 0·94 and 0·86). With each wave, the pandemic appeared to spread with a comparable early growth rate but then attenuate with varying rates. For the entire population, Re estimates made assuming 2-day serial interval were 1·74 (1·27), 1·74 (1·43), 1·66 (1·25), and 1·86 (1·37), respectively, during the first week (first 3 weeks) of each wave. Using age-specific mortality, the average Re estimates over the first week of each wave were 1·62 (95% CI: 1·55–1·68), 1·68 (1·65–1·72), 1·67 (1·61–1·73), and 1·69 (1·63–1·74), respectively; Re was not significantly different either among age cohorts or between waves. Conclusions The pandemic generally caused higher mortality among young adults and might have spread mainly among school-aged children during the first wave. We propose mechanisms to explain the timing and transmission dynamics of the four NYC pandemic waves. PMID:24299150

Zika – A Pandemic in Progress?

PubMed Central

Mohamad Idris, Fauziah

2016-01-01

The emerging threat of Zika virus outbreak with associated neurological abnormalities needs to be assessed in perspective in terms of its ability to cause a pandemic. This article attempts to throw some light on the issue. PMID:27547117

Changing Perceptions: of Pandemic Influenza and Public Health Responses

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

According to the latest World Bank estimates, over the past decade some US $4.3 billion has been pledged by governments to combat the threat of pandemic influenza. Presidents, prime ministers, and even dictators the world over have been keen to demonstrate their commitment to tackling this disease, but this has not always been the case. Indeed, government-led intervention in responding to the threat of pandemic influenza is a relatively recent phenomenon. I explore how human understandings of influenza have altered over the past 500 years and how public policy responses have shifted accordingly. I trace the progress in human understanding of causation from meteorological conditions to the microscopic, and how this has prompted changes in public policy to mitigate the disease's impact. I also examine the latest trend of viewing pandemic influenza as a security threat and how this has changed contemporary governance structures and power dynamics. PMID:22095332

Factors associated with the ability and willingness of essential workers to report to duty during a pandemic.

PubMed

Gershon, Robyn R M; Magda, Lori A; Qureshi, Kristine A; Riley, Halley E M; Scanlon, Eileen; Carney, Maria Torroella; Richards, Reginald J; Sherman, Martin F

2010-10-01

To determine essential workers' ability and willingness to report to duty during a serious pandemic outbreak and to identify modifiable risk factors. Workers (N = 1103) from six essential workgroups completed an anonymous, cross-sectional survey. Although a substantial proportion of participants reported that they would be able (80%), fewer would be willing (65%) to report to duty. Only 49% of participants would be both able and willing. Factors significantly associated with ability/willingness included individual-level (eg, intentions to adhere to respiratory protection and pandemic vaccination recommendations) and organizational-level factors (eg, preparedness planning for respiratory protection and worker vaccination programs). During a serious pandemic event, non-illness-related shortfalls among essential workers could be substantial. Organizational preparedness efforts should focus on worker protection programs and the development of policies that would facilitate the attendance of healthy workers.

Critical choices in financing the response to the global HIV/AIDS pandemic.

PubMed

Hecht, Robert; Bollinger, Lori; Stover, John; McGreevey, William; Muhib, Farzana; Madavo, Callisto Emas; de Ferranti, David

2009-01-01

The AIDS pandemic will enter its fiftieth year in 2031. Despite much progress, there are thirty-three million infected people worldwide, and 2.3 million adults were newly infected in 2007. Without a change in approach, a major pandemic will still be with us in 2031. Modeling carried out for the AIDS 2031 project suggests that funding required for developing countries to address the pandemic could reach $35 billion annually by 2031-three times the current level. Even then, more than a million people will still be newly infected each year. However, wise policy choices focusing on high-impact prevention and efficient treatment could cut costs by half. Investments in new prevention tools and major behavior-change efforts are needed to spur more rapid advances. Existing donors, middle-income countries with contained epidemics, philanthropists, and innovative financing could help bridge the likely funding gap.

Influenza Pandemics in Singapore, a Tropical, Globally Connected City

PubMed Central

Chen, Mark I.; Chan, Siew Pang; Wong, Chia Siong; Cutter, Jeffery; Goh, Kee Tai; Tambyah, Paul Anath

2007-01-01

Tropical cities such as Singapore do not have well-defined influenza seasons but have not been spared from influenza pandemics. The 1918 epidemic in Singapore, which was then already a major global trading hub, occurred in 2 waves, June–July, and October–November, and resulted in >2,870 deaths. The excess mortality rate was higher than that for industrialized nations in the Northern Hemisphere but lower than that for less industrialized countries in Asia and Africa. The 1957 epidemic occurred in May and resulted in widespread illness. The 1968 epidemic occurred in August and lasted a few weeks, again with widespread illness. Tropical cities may be affected early in a pandemic and have higher mortality rates. With the increase in travel and trade, a future pandemic may reach a globally connected city early and spread worldwide. Preparedness and surveillance plans must be developed to include the megacities of the tropical world. PMID:18214178

Framing risk in pandemic influenza policy and control.

PubMed

Seetoh, Theresa; Liverani, Marco; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

This article explores differing understandings of 'risk' in relation to pandemic influenza policy and control. After a preliminary overview of methodological and practical problems in risk analysis, ways in which risk was framed and managed in three historical cases were examined. The interdependence between scientific empiricism and political decision-making led to the mismanagement of the 1976 swine influenza scare in the USA. The 2004 H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in Thailand, on the other hand, was undermined by questions of national economic interest and concerns over global health security. Finally, the recent global emergency of pandemic influenza H1N1 in 2009 demonstrated the difficulties of risk management under a context of pre-established perceptions about the characteristics and inevitability of a pandemic. Following the analysis of these cases, a conceptual framework is presented to illustrate ways in which changing relationships between risk assessment, risk perception and risk management can result in differing policy strategies.

Communicating during a pandemic: information the public wants about the disease and new vaccines and drugs.

PubMed

Henrich, Natalie; Holmes, Bev

2011-07-01

To prepare for pandemics, countries are creating pandemic preparedness plans. These plans frequently include crisis communication strategies that recommend conducting pre-crisis audience research to increase the effectiveness and relevance of communication with the public. To begin understanding the communication needs of the public and health care workers, 11 focus groups were conducted in Vancouver, Canada, in 2006 and 2007 to identify what information people want to receive and how they want to receive it. In the event of a pandemic, participants want to know their risk of infection and how sick they could become if infected. To make decisions about using vaccines and drugs, they want information that enables them to assess the risks of using the products. The public prefers to receive this information from family doctors, the Internet, and schools. Health care workers prefer to receive information in e-mails and in-services.

Crisis and emergency risk communication in a pandemic: a model for building capacity and resilience of minority communities.

PubMed

Crouse Quinn, Sandra

2008-10-01

As public health agencies prepare for pandemic influenza, it is evident from our experience with Hurricane Katrina that these events will occur in the same social, historical, and cultural milieu in which marked distrust of government and health disparities already exist. This article grapples with the challenges of crisis and emergency risk communication with special populations during a pandemic. Recognizing that targeting messages to specific groups poses significant difficulties at that time, this article proposes a model of community engagement, disaster risk education, and crisis and emergency risk communication to prepare minority communities and government agencies to work effectively in a pandemic, build the capacity of each to respond, and strengthen the trust that is critical at such moments. Examples of such engagement and potential strategies to enhance trust include tools familiar to many health educators.

Determinants of virulence of influenza A virus

PubMed Central

Schrauwen, Eefje J.A.; de Graaf, Miranda; Herfst, Sander; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Fouchier, Ron A.M.

2013-01-01

Influenza A viruses cause yearly seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics in humans. In the last century, four human influenza A virus pandemics have occured. Ocasionally, influenza A viruses that circulate in other species, cross the species barrier and infect humans. Virus re-assortment (i.e. mixing of gene segments of multiple viruses) and the accumulation of mutations contribute to the emergence of new influenza A virus variants. Fortunately, most of these variants do not have the ability to spread among humans and subsequently cause a pandemic. In this review we focus on the threat of animal influenza A viruses which have shown the ability to infect humans. In addition, genetic factors which could alter the virulence of influenza A viruses are discussed. Identification and characterization of these factors may provide insights into genetic traits which change virulence and help us to understand which genetic determinants are of importance for the pandemic potential of animal influenza A viruses. PMID:24078062

Public perceptions of pandemic influenza resource allocation: a deliberative forum using Grid/Group analysis.

PubMed

Docter, Stynke P; Street, Jackie; Braunack-Mayer, Annette J; van der Wilt, Gert-Jan

2011-08-01

The emergence of virulent avian influenza A subtypes with potential to evolve into novel human subtypes prompted directives from the World Health Organisation recommending that countries prepare for a pandemic. In response the Australian government developed the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza (AHMPPI), which includes strategies to contain and/or manage a pandemic. To implement these strategies successfully, community compliance is necessary. Our qualitative study investigated, through a deliberative forum, the extent to which the antiviral drug and vaccine allocation of the AHMPPI corresponds with community views about the priority groups. We used Mary Douglas' Grid/Group analysis to analyse the results, which suggested that the AHMPPI's allocation strategy corresponds well with community views with both based on a hierarchical structure. There are some differences concerning community involvement in the decision process and information provision to the public, for which our study provides recommendations.

Plagues in the ICU: a brief history of community-acquired epidemic and endemic transmissible infections leading to intensive care admission.

PubMed

Light, R Bruce

2009-01-01

The ability to diagnose and treat infectious diseases and handle infectious disease outbreaks continues to improve. For the most part, the major plagues of antiquity remain historical footnotes, yet, despite many advances, there is clear evidence that major pandemic illness is always just one outbreak away. In addition to the HIV pandemic, the smaller epidemic outbreaks of Legionnaire's disease, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, and severe acute respiratory syndrome, among many others, points out the potential risk associated with a lack of preplanning and preparedness. Although pandemic influenza is at the top of the list when discussing possible future major infectious disease outbreaks, the truth is that the identity of the next major pandemic pathogen cannot be predicted with any accuracy. We can only hope that general preparedness and the lessons learned from previous outbreaks suffice.

Prevalence and factors associated with 2009 to 2011 influenza vaccinations at a university medical center.

PubMed

Crowley, Kathleen A; Myers, Ronnie; Magda, Lori A; Morse, Stephen S; Brandt-Rauf, Paul; Gershon, Robyn R M

2013-09-01

Information on the rates and factors associated with influenza vaccinations, although limited, is important because it can inform the development of effective vaccination campaigns in a university medical center setting. A study was conducted in 2011 to identify individual and organizational level barriers and facilitators to influenza vaccination among clinical and nonclinical personnel (N = 428) from a major university medical center. Seventy-one percent of clinical personnel (n = 170) reported pandemic H1N1 vaccination compared with 27% of nonclinical personnel (n = 258), even though vaccine was made widely available to all personnel at no cost. Similarly, disparate rates between clinical and nonclinical personnel were noted for the 2009/2010 seasonal influenza vaccine (82% vs 42%, respectively) and 2010/2011 combination (pandemic plus seasonal) influenza vaccine (73% vs 28%, respectively). Factors associated with pandemic vaccination in nonclinical personnel included the following: high level of influenza-related knowledge, concern regarding influenza contagion, history of previous influenza vaccinations or influenza illness, participation in vaccine-related training, and awareness of the institution's written pandemic plan. For clinicians, past history of seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with pandemic vaccination. For all participants, taking any 1 or more of the 3 influenza vaccines available in 2009 to 2011 was associated with intent to take a hypothetical future novel pandemic vaccine (odds ratio, 6.7; 95% confidence interval: 4.32-10.44; P < .001). Most of the risk factors associated with lack of vaccination uptake are amenable to organizational strategies. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Pre-pandemic planning survey of healthcare workers at a tertiary care children's hospital: ethical and workforce issues.

PubMed

Cowden, Jessica; Crane, Lori; Lezotte, Dennis; Glover, Jacqueline; Nyquist, Ann-Christine

2010-07-01

Prior to the development of written policies and procedures for pandemic influenza, worker perceptions of ethical and workforce issues must be identified. To determine the relationship between healthcare worker (HCW) reporting willingness to work during a pandemic and perception of job importance, belief that one will be asked to work, and sense of professionalism and to assess HCW's opinions regarding specific policy issues as well as barriers and motivators to work during a pandemic. A survey was conducted in HCWs at The Children's Hospital in Denver, Colorado, from February to June 2007. Characteristics of workers reporting willingness to work during a pandemic were compared with those who were unwilling or unsure. Importance of barriers and motivators was compared by gender and willingness to work. Sixty percent of respondents reported willingness to work (overall response rate of 31%). Belief one will be asked to work (OR 4.6, P  <  0.0001) and having a high level of professionalism (OR 8.6, P  <  0.0001) were associated with reporting willingness to work. Hospital infrastructure support staffs were less likely to report willingness to work during a pandemic than clinical healthcare professionals (OR 0.39, P  <  0.001). Concern for personal safety, concern for safety of family, family's concern for safety, and childcare issues were all important barriers to coming to work. Educational programs should focus on professional responsibility and the importance of staying home when ill. Targeted programs toward hospital infrastructure support and patient and family support staff stressing the essential nature of these jobs may improve willingness to work.

Willingness to volunteer during an influenza pandemic: perspectives from students and staff at a large Canadian university

PubMed Central

Rosychuk, Rhonda J.; Bailey, Tracey; Haines, Christina; Lake, Robert; Herman, Benjamin; Yonge, Olive; Marrie, Thomas J.

2008-01-01

Background  A future influenza pandemic will require greater demand on numerous essential services and a reduced capacity to meet that demand. Recruitment of volunteers is an important issue for pre‐pandemic planning. Objectives  To identify factors and attitudes towards volunteerism in the event of a pandemic of influenza. Participants/methods  A 42‐item web‐questionnaire was administered to all faculty, staff and students at the University of Alberta. Respondents indicated their willingness to volunteer. Responses were dichotomized and logistic regression models were developed to capture the association between willingness to volunteer and (i) demographic and information source variables, (ii) risk perception and general knowledge, and (iii) volunteering attitudes and priority access variables. Results  Many factors predicted willingness to volunteer and several involved interactions with other variables. Individuals who were older, relied on University Health Centre information and who had past volunteerism experience were generally more likely to be willing to volunteer. Those willing to volunteer were more likely to think spread could be prevented by covering mouth when coughing/sneezing, and treatment would include drinking fluids. Those who thought influenza would be treated by antibiotics were less willing to volunteer. Likely volunteers thought that healthcare students should be encouraged to volunteer if there was a healthcare worker shortage. Conclusion  This study provides guidance for those who are preparing universities to deal with pandemic influenza. The results suggest factors that might be important in the recruitment of volunteers during an influenza pandemic and these factors might be relevant for other sectors as well. PMID:19453473

Corticosteroid therapy in patients with primary viral pneumonia due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza.

PubMed

Diaz, Emili; Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Canadell, Laura; Vidaur, Loreto; Suarez, David; Socias, Lorenzo; Estella, Angel; Gil Rueda, Bernardo; Guerrero, José Eugenio; Valverdú-Vidal, Montserrat; Vergara, Juan Carlos; López-Pueyo, María Jesús; Magret, Mónica; Recio, Teresa; López, Diego; Rello, Jordi; Rodriguez, Alejandro

2012-03-01

During the first pandemic, some patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza were treated with corticosteroids. The objective of this study was to assess the effect on survival of corticosteroid therapy in patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza. Prospective, observational, multicenter study performed in 148 ICU. Data were recorded in the GTEI/SEMICYUC registry. Adult patients with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza confirmed by rt-PCR were included in the analysis. Database records specified corticosteroid type and reason for corticosteroid treatment. 372 patients with the diagnosis of primary viral pneumonia and completed outcomes treated in an ICU were included in the database. Mechanical ventilation was used in 70.2% of the patients. 136 (36.6%) patients received corticosteroids after a diagnosis of primary viral pneumonia. Obesity (35.6% vs 47.8% p = 0.021) and asthma (7.6% vs 15.4% p = 0.018), were more frequent in the group treated with corticosteroids. A Cox regression analysis adjusted for severity and potential confounding factors found that the use of corticosteroid therapy was not significantly associated with mortality (HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.626-1.801; p = 0.825). Corticosteroid therapy in a selected group of patients with primary viral pneumonia due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza does not improve survival. Copyright © 2012 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza in Australia: Absenteeism and redeployment of emergency medicine and nursing staff.

PubMed

Considine, Julie; Shaban, Ramon Z; Patrick, Jennifer; Holzhauser, Kerri; Aitken, Peter; Clark, Michele; Fielding, Elaine; FitzGerald, Gerry

2011-10-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the impact of Pandemic (H(1)N(1)) 2009 Influenza on the Australian emergency nursing and medicine workforce, specifically absenteeism and deployment. Data were collected using an online survey of 618 members of the three professional emergency medicine or emergency nursing colleges. Despite significant increases in emergency demand during the Pandemic (H(1)N(1)) 2009 Influenza, 56.6% of emergency nursing and medicine staff reported absenteeism of at least 1 day and only 8.5% of staff were redeployed. Staff illness with influenza-like illness was reported by 37% of respondents, and 87% of respondents who became ill were not tested for the Pandemic (H(1)N(1)) 2009 Influenza. Of the respondents who became ill, 43% (n= 79) reported missing no days of work and only 8% of respondents (n= 14) reported being absent for more than 5 days. The mean number of days away from work was 3.73 (standard deviation = 3.63). Factors anecdotally associated with staff absenteeism (caregiver responsibilities, concern about personal illness, concern about exposing family members to illness, school closures, risk of quarantine, stress and increased workload) appeared to be of little or no relevance. Redeployment was reported by 8% of respondents and the majority of redeployment was for operational reasons. Future research related to absenteeism, redeployment during actual pandemic events is urgently needed. Workforce data collection should be an integral part of organizational pandemic planning. © 2011 The Authors. EMA © 2011 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Pandemic influenza communication: views from a deliberative forum

PubMed Central

Rogers, Wendy A.; Street, Jackie M.; Braunack‐Mayer, Annette J.; Hiller, Janet E.

2009-01-01

Abstract Objective  To use a deliberative forum to elicit community perspectives on communication about pandemic influenza planning, and to compare these findings with the current Australian national communication strategy. Design  Deliberative forum of 12 persons randomly selected from urban South Australia. Forum members were briefed by experts in infection control, virology, ethics and public policy before deliberating on four key questions: what, how and when should the community be told about pandemic influenza and by whom? Results  The forum recommended provision of detailed and comprehensive information by credible experts, rather than politicians, using a variety of media including television and internet. Recommendations included cumulative communication to build expertise in the community, and specific strategies to include groups such as young people, people with physical or mental disabilities, and rural and remote communities. Information provided should be practical, accurate, and timely, with no ‘holding back’ about the seriousness of a pandemic. The forum expressed confidence in the expert witnesses, despite the acknowledged uncertainty of many of the predictions. Discussion and Conclusion  The deliberative forum’s recommendations were largely consistent with the Australian national pandemic influenza communication strategy and the relevant literature. However, the forum recommended: release of more detailed information than currently proposed in the national strategy; use of non‐political spokespersons; and use of novel communication methods. Their acceptance of uncertainty suggests that policy makers should be open about the limits of knowledge in potentially threatening situations. Our findings show that deliberative forums can provide community perspectives on topics such as communication about pandemic influenza. PMID:19754694

Comparative community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza: results of the Flu Watch cohort study.

PubMed

Hayward, Andrew C; Fragaszy, Ellen B; Bermingham, Alison; Wang, Lili; Copas, Andrew; Edmunds, W John; Ferguson, Neil; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Harvey, Gabrielle; Kovar, Jana; Lim, Megan S C; McMichael, Andrew; Millett, Elizabeth R C; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Nazareth, Irwin; Pebody, Richard; Tabassum, Faiza; Watson, John M; Wurie, Fatima B; Johnson, Anne M; Zambon, Maria

2014-06-01

Assessment of the effect of influenza on populations, including risk of infection, illness if infected, illness severity, and consultation rates, is essential to inform future control and prevention. We aimed to compare the community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza across different age groups and study years and gain insight into the extent to which traditional surveillance underestimates this burden. Using preseason and postseason serology, weekly illness reporting, and RT-PCR identification of influenza from nasal swabs, we tracked the course of seasonal and pandemic influenza over five successive cohorts (England 2006-11; 5448 person-seasons' follow-up). We compared burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic strains. We weighted analyses to the age and regional structure of England to give nationally representative estimates. We compared symptom profiles over the first week of illness for different strains of PCR-confirmed influenza and non-influenza viruses using ordinal logistic regression with symptom severity grade as the outcome variable. Based on four-fold titre rises in strain-specific serology, on average influenza infected 18% (95% CI 16-22) of unvaccinated people each winter. Of those infected there were 69 respiratory illnesses per 100 person-influenza-seasons compared with 44 per 100 in those not infected with influenza. The age-adjusted attributable rate of illness if infected was 23 illnesses per 100 person-seasons (13-34), suggesting most influenza infections are asymptomatic. 25% (18-35) of all people with serologically confirmed infections had PCR-confirmed disease. 17% (10-26) of people with PCR-confirmed influenza had medically attended illness. These figures did not differ significantly when comparing pandemic with seasonal influenza. Of PCR-confirmed cases, people infected with the 2009 pandemic strain had markedly less severe symptoms than those infected with seasonal H3N2. Seasonal influenza and the 2009 pandemic strain were characterised by similar high rates of mainly asymptomatic infection with most symptomatic cases self-managing without medical consultation. In the community the 2009 pandemic strain caused milder symptoms than seasonal H3N2. Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust. Copyright © 2014 Hayward et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Using surveillance data to estimate pandemic vaccine effectiveness against laboratory confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection: two case-control studies, Spain, season 2009-2010

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Physicians of the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System report and systematically swab patients attended to their practices for influenza-like illness (ILI). Within the surveillance system, some Spanish regions also participated in an observational study aiming at estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (cycEVA study). During the season 2009-2010, we estimated pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness using both the influenza surveillance data and the cycEVA study. Methods We conducted two case-control studies using the test-negative design, between weeks 48/2009 and 8/2010 of the pandemic season. The surveillance-based study included all swabbed patients in the sentinel surveillance system. The cycEVA study included swabbed patients from seven Spanish regions. Cases were laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009. Controls were ILI patients testing negative for any type of influenza. Variables collected in both studies included demographic data, vaccination status, laboratory results, chronic conditions, and pregnancy. Additionally, cycEVA questionnaire collected data on previous influenza vaccination, smoking, functional status, hospitalisations, visits to the general practitioners, and obesity. We used logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR), computing pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness as (1-OR)*100. Results We included 331 cases and 995 controls in the surveillance-based study and 85 cases and 351 controls in the cycEVA study. We detected nine (2.7%) and two (2.4%) vaccine failures in the surveillance-based and cycEVA studies, respectively. Adjusting for variables collected in surveillance database and swabbing month, pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness was 62% (95% confidence interval (CI): -5; 87). The cycEVA vaccine effectiveness was 64% (95%CI: -225; 96) when adjusting for common variables with the surveillance system and 75% (95%CI: -293; 98) adjusting for all variables collected. Conclusion Point estimates of the pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness suggested a protective effect of the pandemic vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 in the season 2009-2010. Both studies were limited by the low vaccine coverage and the late start of the vaccination campaign. Routine influenza surveillance provides reliable estimates and could be used for influenza vaccine effectiveness studies in future seasons taken into account the surveillance system limitations. PMID:22129083

[The military role in a flu pandemic].

PubMed

Molina Hazan, Vered; Balicer, Ran D; Groto, Itamar; Zarka, Salman; Ankol, Omer E; Bar-Zeev, Yael; Levine, Hagai; Ash, Nachman

2010-01-01

Pandemic influenza is a major challenge to emergency preparedness agencies and health systems throughout the world. It requires preparation for a situation of widespread morbidity due to flu and its complications which will lead to a huge burden on the health system in the community and in hospitals, and work absenteeism, also among health care personnel. This may require major involvement of the army in both preparedness and measures to be taken to tackle such an event. This article reviews the different roles armies could take in such a crisis, and presents the Israeli test case. Defense systems are characterized by a number of attributes that may be major advantages during pandemic influenza: crisis management capacities, ability to deal with varied tasks in sub-optimal conditions, logistic resources (fuel, food and water), widespread deployment in the country and sometimes in the world, and the ability to activate people in risky situations, even against their will. The army roles during pandemic outbreaks could include: taking national and regional command of the event, assigning workforce for essential civilian missions, use of logistic and military resources, maintaining public order and implementing public health measures such as isolation and quarantine. In addition, the army must continue its primary role of maintaining the security and guarding the borders of the state, especially in times of global geopolitical changes due to pandemic. Since March 2009, the influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus spread throughout the world, leading the WHO to declare a state of pandemic influenza. According to Israeli preparedness plans, the management of the event was supposed to pass to the defense system. However, due to the moderate severity of the illness, it was decided to leave the management of the event to the health system. In view of the necessity of maintaining military combat capabilities, and the possibility of outbreaks in combat units, which actually occurred, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) policy for the pandemic was stricter than the policy of the Ministry of Health. Defense systems in Israel and the world should prepare, the sooner the better, for the possibility of a worse pandemic, in which the army may take a major role, especially since regular life in the country, in such a case, would be disturbed.

76 FR 62306 - Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP): Administrative Implementation, Final Rule

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-07

... respirators, Respiratory support devices, Ventilators, Anthrax, Smallpox, Botulism, Acute radiation syndrome...] and Relenza[supreg] when used for pandemic purposes; (5) smallpox countermeasures; (6) acute radiation syndrome countermeasures; (7) pandemic influenza diagnostics, personal respiratory devices, and respiratory...

Curbing the lifestyle disease pandemic: making progress on an interdisciplinary research agenda for law and policy interventions.

PubMed

Toebes, Brigit; Hesselman, Marlies; van Dijk, Jitse P; Herman, Joost

2017-09-18

By 2030, noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) will be the leading cause of death in every region in the world. While law and policy have an important role to play in curbing this pandemic, our current understanding of how they can most effectively be used is still limited. This contribution identifies a number of gaps in current research and insists on an interdisciplinary research agenda between law, health science and international relations aimed at designing concrete proposals for laws and policies to curb the NCD pandemic, both globally and domestically.

Relevance of workplace social mixing during influenza pandemics: an experimental modelling study of workplace cultures.

PubMed

Timpka, T; Eriksson, H; Holm, E; Strömgren, M; Ekberg, J; Spreco, A; Dahlström, Ö

2016-07-01

Workplaces are one of the most important regular meeting places in society. The aim of this study was to use simulation experiments to examine the impact of different workplace cultures on influenza dissemination during pandemics. The impact is investigated by experiments with defined social-mixing patterns at workplaces using semi-virtual models based on authentic sociodemographic and geographical data from a North European community (population 136 000). A simulated pandemic outbreak was found to affect 33% of the total population in the community with the reference academic-creative workplace culture; virus transmission at the workplace accounted for 10·6% of the cases. A model with a prevailing industrial-administrative workplace culture generated 11% lower incidence than the reference model, while the model with a self-employed workplace culture (also corresponding to a hypothetical scenario with all workplaces closed) produced 20% fewer cases. The model representing an academic-creative workplace culture with restricted workplace interaction generated 12% lower cumulative incidence compared to the reference model. The results display important theoretical associations between workplace social-mixing cultures and community-level incidence rates during influenza pandemics. Social interaction patterns at workplaces should be taken into consideration when analysing virus transmission patterns during influenza pandemics.

Early experience with influenza A H1N109 in an Australian intensive care unit.

PubMed

Leen, Tim; Williams, Teresa A; Campbell, Lorraine; Chamberlain, Jenny; Gould, Andree; McEntaggart, Geraldine; Leslie, Gavin D

2010-08-01

Influenza is a common seasonal viral infection that affects large numbers of people. In early 2009, many people were admitted to hospitals in Mexico with severe respiratory failure following an influenza-like illness, subtyped as H1N1. An increased mortality rate was observed. By June 2009, H1N1 was upgraded to pandemic status. In June-July, Australian ICUs were experiencing increased activity due to the influenza pandemic. While hospitals implemented plans for the pandemic, the particularly heavy demand to provide critical care facilities to accommodate an influx of people with severe respiratory failure became evident and placed a great burden on provision of these services. This paper describes the initial experience (June to mid September) of the pandemic from the nursing perspective in a single Australian ICU. Patients were noted to be younger with a higher proportion of women, two of whom were pregnant. Two patients had APACHE III comorbidity. Of the 31 patients admitted during this period, three patients died in ICU and one patient died in hospital. Aerosol precautions were initiated for all patients. The requirement for single room accommodation placed enormous demands for bed management in ICU. Specific infection control procedures were developed to deal with this new pandemic influenza. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protecting public health and global freight transportation systems during an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Luke, Thomas C; Rodrigue, Jean-Paul

2008-01-01

The H5N1 influenza threat is resulting in global preparations for the next influenza pandemic. Pandemic influenza planners are prioritizing scarce vaccine, antivirals, and public health support for different segments of society. The freight, bulk goods, and energy transportation network comprise the maritime, rail, air, and trucking industries. It relies on small numbers of specialized workers who cannot be rapidly replaced if lost due to death, illness, or voluntary absenteeism. Because transportation networks link economies, provide critical infrastructures with working material, and supply citizens with necessary commodities, disrupted transportation systems can lead to cascading failures in social and economic systems. However, some pandemic influenza plans have assigned transportation workers a low priority for public health support, vaccine, and antivirals. The science of Transportation Geography demonstrates that transportation networks and workers are concentrated at, or funnel through, a small number of chokepoints and corridors. Chokepoints should be used to rapidly and efficiently vaccinate and prophylax the transportation worker cohort and to implement transmission prevention measures and thereby protect the ability to move goods. Nations, states, the transportation industry and unions, businesses, and other stakeholders must plan, resource, and exercise, and then conduct a transportation health assurance and security campaign for an influenza pandemic.

[The pandemic of the experts in the mass media. How to create trust in public communication by acknowledging ignorance and uncertainty].

PubMed

Stollorz, V

2013-01-01

The first influenza pandemic in the twenty-first century is an example of how public trust in expert recommendations can erode if prognostic ability of these experts is suddenly doubted in the mass media. A highly consonant pandemic alarm communicated through the mass media can later cause heightened resonance concerning the appropriateness of the same alarm. In this case a paradoxical effect can develop, in which the same media outlet first paints an overly risky picture of an unfolding pandemic only to later condemn this assessment as alarmist. Can such behavior be considered a defect of journalism? In this article I describe the circumstances under which such media dynamics and "hypes" without trust in expertise are more likely to develop: when there is nontransparent decision making; when uncertainty and nescience of expert judgments are not communicated transparently; when warnings and measures taken are not readily adapted to the evolving risk situation in reality. If these basic principles are recognized in future pandemic risk communication, long-term public trust in scientific expertise can be secured. In this way, despite a public health crisis, a long-lasting break in the credibility of sound science can be avoided.

Influenza Vaccination Coverage among Adults in Korea: 2008–2009 to 2011–2012 Seasons

PubMed Central

Yang, Hye Jung; Cho, Sung-il

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination coverage in adults from the 2008–2009 season to the 2011–2012 season, including pandemic and post-pandemic seasons in Korea. We collected data of self-reported vaccine use from the Korean Community Health Survey. We also collected information on socioeconomic status and health behaviors in subpopulations. We tested for linear trends among the data to investigate vaccine coverage before and after the pandemic; and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of obtaining the influenza vaccination. The results revealed a steady increase in vaccination coverage in every subgroup during four consecutive seasons. The highest rate of vaccine coverage (43.6%) occurred two years after the pandemic. Factors associated with vaccine receipt were: older age; lower education level; lower income; and health behaviors such as regular walking and receiving a health check-up. Smoking and drinking alcohol were inversely associated with vaccination. Having a chronic health condition was also a strong predictor of vaccine receipt. Though vaccination coverage rates were high in high-risk groups; disparities in coverage rates were substantial; particularly in young adults. Interventions are needed to minimize the coverage gaps among subgroups and to improve overall vaccination rates. PMID:25429683

Influenza vaccination coverage among adults in Korea: 2008-2009 to 2011-2012 seasons.

PubMed

Yang, Hye Jung; Cho, Sung-Il

2014-11-25

The aim of this study was to examine seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination coverage in adults from the 2008-2009 season to the 2011-2012 season, including pandemic and post-pandemic seasons in Korea. We collected data of self-reported vaccine use from the Korean Community Health Survey. We also collected information on socioeconomic status and health behaviors in subpopulations. We tested for linear trends among the data to investigate vaccine coverage before and after the pandemic; and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of obtaining the influenza vaccination. The results revealed a steady increase in vaccination coverage in every subgroup during four consecutive seasons. The highest rate of vaccine coverage (43.6%) occurred two years after the pandemic. Factors associated with vaccine receipt were: older age; lower education level; lower income; and health behaviors such as regular walking and receiving a health check-up. Smoking and drinking alcohol were inversely associated with vaccination. Having a chronic health condition was also a strong predictor of vaccine receipt. Though vaccination coverage rates were high in high-risk groups; disparities in coverage rates were substantial; particularly in young adults. Interventions are needed to minimize the coverage gaps among subgroups and to improve overall vaccination rates.

Equalizing access to pandemic influenza vaccines through optimal allocation to public health distribution points.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chan; Singh, Bismark; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-01-01

Vaccines are arguably the most important means of pandemic influenza mitigation. However, as during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, mass immunization with an effective vaccine may not begin until a pandemic is well underway. In the U.S., state-level public health agencies are responsible for quickly and fairly allocating vaccines as they become available to populations prioritized to receive vaccines. Allocation decisions can be ethically and logistically complex, given several vaccine types in limited and uncertain supply and given competing priority groups with distinct risk profiles and vaccine acceptabilities. We introduce a model for optimizing statewide allocation of multiple vaccine types to multiple priority groups, maximizing equal access. We assume a large fraction of available vaccines are distributed to healthcare providers based on their requests, and then optimize county-level allocation of the remaining doses to achieve equity. We have applied the model to the state of Texas, and incorporated it in a Web-based decision-support tool for the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS). Based on vaccine quantities delivered to registered healthcare providers in response to their requests during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, we find that a relatively small cache of discretionary doses (DSHS reserved 6.8% in 2009) suffices to achieve equity across all counties in Texas.

Survey of healthcare workers' attitudes, beliefs and willingness to receive the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine and the impact of educational campaigns.

PubMed

Thoon, Koh Cheng; Chong, Chia Yin

2010-04-01

Vaccination against the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) represents the best method of controlling spread, morbidity and mortality due to the pandemic. While this has been recommended for all healthcare-workers locally, it is unclear if they are willing to accept the vaccination. A cross-sectional survey was conducted before and after an educational talk on pandemic influenza and vaccines to ascertain responses and stated reasons, as well as identify associated factors. For 235 returned forms prior to the talk, 182 (77.4%) responded positively, while 161 of 192 (83.8%) who returned forms after the talk responded positively. Importantly, 12 of 47 (25.5%) initially negative responses turned positive after education. The desire to protect family, self and patients were the 3 most important reasons for staff wanting to receive the vaccine, while the concern regarding potential side effects was the most important reason for refusal. A high rate of willingness to receive pandemic influenza vaccine was found, which was in contrast to acceptance rates elsewhere and during previous influenza seasons. Education can play an important role in altering vaccine acceptance behaviour, with an emphasis on addressing concerns with regard to potential side effects.

Provision of pandemic disease information by health sciences librarians: a multisite comparative case series*†‡§

PubMed Central

Featherstone, Robin M; Boldt, R. Gabriel; Torabi, Nazi; Konrad, Shauna-Lee

2012-01-01

Objective: The research provides an understanding of pandemic information needs and informs professional development initiatives for librarians in disaster medicine. Methods: Utilizing a multisite, comparative case series design, the researchers conducted semi-structured interviews and examined supplementary materials in the form of organizational documents, correspondence, and websites to create a complete picture of each case. The rigor of the case series was ensured through data and investigator triangulation. Interview transcripts were coded using NVivo to identify common themes and points of comparison. Results: Comparison of the four cases revealed a distinct difference between “client-initiated” and “librarian-initiated” provision of pandemic information. Librarian-initiated projects utilized social software to “push” information, whereas client-initiated projects operated within patron-determined parameters to deliver information. Health care administrators were identified as a key audience for pandemic information, and news agencies were utilized as essential information sources. Librarians' skills at evaluating available information proved crucial for selecting best-quality evidence to support administrative decision making. Conclusions: Qualitative analysis resulted in increased understanding of pandemic information needs and identified best practices for disseminating information during periods of high organizational stress caused by an influx of new cases of an unknown infectious disease. PMID:22514506

Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.

PubMed

Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2005-05-21

In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.

Healthcare workers' attitudes to working during pandemic influenza: a qualitative study

PubMed Central

Ives, Jonathan; Greenfield, Sheila; Parry, Jayne M; Draper, Heather; Gratus, Christine; Petts, Judith I; Sorell, Tom; Wilson, Sue

2009-01-01

Background Healthcare workers (HCWs) will play a key role in any response to pandemic influenza, and the UK healthcare system's ability to cope during an influenza pandemic will depend, to a large extent, on the number of HCWs who are able and willing to work through the crisis. UK emergency planning will be improved if planners have a better understanding of the reasons UK HCWs may have for their absenteeism, and what might motivate them to work during an influenza pandemic. This paper reports the results of a qualitative study that explored UK HCWs' views (n = 64) about working during an influenza pandemic, in order to identify factors that might influence their willingness and ability to work and to identify potential sources of any perceived duty on HCWs to work. Methods A qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 9) and interviews (n = 5). Results HCWs across a range of roles and grades tended to feel motivated by a sense of obligation to work through an influenza pandemic. A number of significant barriers that may prevent them from doing so were also identified. Perceived barriers to the ability to work included being ill oneself, transport difficulties, and childcare responsibilities. Perceived barriers to the willingness to work included: prioritising the wellbeing of family members; a lack of trust in, and goodwill towards, the NHS; a lack of information about the risks and what is expected of them during the crisis; fear of litigation; and the feeling that employers do not take the needs of staff seriously. Barriers to ability and barriers to willingness, however, are difficult to separate out. Conclusion Although our participants tended to feel a general obligation to work during an influenza pandemic, there are barriers to working, which, if generalisable, may significantly reduce the NHS workforce during a pandemic. The barriers identified are both barriers to willingness and to ability. This suggests that pandemic planning needs to take into account the possibility that staff may be absent for reasons beyond those currently anticipated in UK planning documents. In particular, staff who are physically able to attend work may nonetheless be unwilling to do so. Although there are some barriers that cannot be mitigated by employers (such as illness, transport infrastructure etc.), there are a number of remedial steps that can be taken to lesson the impact of others (providing accommodation, building reciprocity, provision of information and guidance etc). We suggest that barriers to working lie along an ability/willingness continuum, and that absenteeism may be reduced by taking steps to prevent barriers to willingness becoming perceived barriers to ability. PMID:19216738

Influenza A Virus Acquires Enhanced Pathogenicity and Transmissibility after Serial Passages in Swine

PubMed Central

Wei, Kai; Sun, Honglei; Sun, Zhenhong; Sun, Yipeng; Kong, Weili; Pu, Juan; Ma, Guangpeng; Yin, Yanbo; Yang, Hanchun; Guo, Xin; Chang, Kin-Chow

2014-01-01

ABSTRACT Genetic and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the pandemic H1N1/2009 virus was derived from well-established swine influenza lineages; however, there is no convincing evidence that the pandemic virus was generated from a direct precursor in pigs. Furthermore, the evolutionary dynamics of influenza virus in pigs have not been well documented. Here, we subjected a recombinant virus (rH1N1) with the same constellation makeup as the pandemic H1N1/2009 virus to nine serial passages in pigs. The severity of infection sequentially increased with each passage. Deep sequencing of viral quasispecies from the ninth passage found five consensus amino acid mutations: PB1 A469T, PA 1129T, NA N329D, NS1 N205K, and NEP T48N. Mutations in the hemagglutinin (HA) protein, however, differed greatly between the upper and lower respiratory tracts. Three representative viral clones with the five consensus mutations were selected for functional evaluation. Relative to the parental virus, the three viral clones showed enhanced replication and polymerase activity in vitro and enhanced replication, pathogenicity, and transmissibility in pigs, guinea pigs, and ferrets in vivo. Specifically, two mutants of rH1N1 (PB1 A469T and a combination of NS1 N205K and NEP T48N) were identified as determinants of transmissibility in guinea pigs. Crucially, one mutant viral clone with the five consensus mutations, which also carried D187E, K211E, and S289N mutations in its HA, additionally was able to infect ferrets by airborne transmission as effectively as the pandemic virus. Our findings demonstrate that influenza virus can acquire viral characteristics that are similar to those of the pandemic virus after limited serial passages in pigs. IMPORTANCE We demonstrate here that an engineered reassortant swine influenza virus, with the same gene constellation pattern as the pandemic H1N1/2009 virus and subjected to only nine serial passages in pigs, acquired greatly enhanced virulence and transmissibility. In particular, one representative pathogenic passaged virus clone, which carried three mutations in the HA gene and five consensus mutations in PB1, PA, NA, NS1, and NEP genes, additionally was able to confer respiratory droplet transmission as effectively as the pandemic H1N1/2009 virus. Our findings suggest that pigs can readily induce adaptive mutational changes to a precursor pandemic-like virus to transform it into a highly virulent and infectious form akin to that of the pandemic H1N1/2009 virus, which underlines the potential direct role of pigs in promoting influenza A virus pathogenicity and transmissibility. PMID:25100840

Experience and lessons from surveillance and studies of the 2009 pandemic in Europe.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Ammon, A; Amato Gauci, A; Amato, A; Ciancio, B; Zucs, P; Devaux, I; Plata, F; Mazick, A; Mølbak, K; Asikainen, T; Kramarz, P

2010-01-01

Surveillance and studies in a pandemic is a complex topic including four distinct components: (1) early detection and investigation; (2) comprehensive early assessment; (3) monitoring; and (4) rapid investigation of the effectiveness and impact of countermeasures, including monitoring the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures. In the 2009 pandemic, the prime early detection and investigation took place in the Americas, but Europe needed to undertake the other three components while remaining vigilant to new phenomenon such as the emergence of antiviral resistance and important viral mutation. Laboratory-based surveillance was essential and also integral to epidemiological and clinical surveillance. Early assessment was especially vital because of the many important strategic parameters of the pandemic that could not be anticipated (the 'known unknowns'). Such assessment did not need to be undertaken in every country, and was done by the earliest affected European countries, particularly those with stronger surveillance. This was more successful than requiring countries to forward primary data for central analysis. However, it sometimes proved difficult to get even those analyses from European counties, and information from Southern hemisphere countries and North America proved equally valuable. These analyses informed which public health and clinical measures were most likely to be successful, and were summarized in a European risk assessment that was updated repeatedly. The estimate of the severity of the pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), and more detailed description by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in the risk assessment along with revised planning assumptions were essential, as most national European plans envisaged triggering more disruptive interventions in the event of a severe pandemic. Setting up new surveillance systems in the midst of the pandemic and getting information from them was generally less successful. All European countries needed to perform monitoring (Component 3) for the proper management of their own healthcare systems and other services. The information that central authorities might like to have for monitoring was legion, and some countries found it difficult to limit this to what was essential for decisions and key communications. Monitoring should have been tested for feasibility in influenza seasons, but also needed to consider what surveillance systems will change or cease to deliver during a pandemic. International monitoring (reporting upwards to WHO and European authorities) had to be kept simple as many countries found it difficult to provide routine information to international bodies as well as undertaking internal processes. Investigation of the effectiveness of countermeasures (and the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures) (Component 4) is another process that only needs to be undertaken in some countries. Safety monitoring proved especially important because of concerns over the safety of vaccines and antivirals. It is unlikely that it will become clear whether and which public health measures have been successful during the pandemic itself. Piloting of methods of estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (part of Component 4) in Europe was underway in 2008. It was concluded that for future pandemics, authorities should plan how they will undertake Components 2-4, resourcing them realistically and devising new ways of sharing analyses. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recrudescent wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011-2012: Age shift and severity.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Grajales Muñiz, Concepcion; Rascón Pacheco, Ramón Alberto; González León, Margot; Borja Aburto, Víctor Hugo

2012-02-24

A substantial recrudescent wave of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 that began in December 2011 is ongoing and has not yet peaked in Mexico, following a 2-year period of sporadic transmission. Mexico previously experienced three pandemic waves of A/H1N1 in 2009, associated with higher excess mortality rates than those reported in other countries, and prompting a large influenza vaccination campaign. Here we describe changes in the epidemiological patterns of the ongoing 4th pandemic wave in 2011-12, relative to the earlier waves in 2009. The analysis is intended to guide public health intervention strategies in near real time. We analyzed demographic and geographic data on all hospitalizations with acute respiratory infection (ARI) and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza, and inpatient deaths, from a large prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security medical system during 01-April 2009 to 10-Feb 2012. We characterized the age and regional patterns of A/H1N1-positive hospitalizations and inpatient-deaths relative to the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the daily case incidence by date of symptoms onset. A total of 5,795 ARI hospitalizations and 186 inpatient-deaths (3.2%) were reported between 01-December 2011 and 10-February 2012 (685 A/H1N1-positive inpatients and 75 A/H1N1-positive deaths). The nationwide peak of daily ARI hospitalizations in early 2012 has already exceeded the peak of ARI hospitalizations observed during the major fall pandemic wave in 2009. The mean age was 34.3 y (SD=21.3) among A/H1N1 inpatients and 43.5 y (SD=21) among A/H1N1 deaths in 2011-12. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths was higher among seniors >=60 years of age (Chi-square test P<0.001) and lower among younger age groups (Chi-square test, P<0.03) for the 2011-2012 pandemic wave, compared to the earlier waves in 2009. The reproduction number of the winter 2011-12 wave in central Mexico was estimated at 1.2-1.3, similar to that reported for the fall 2009 wave, but lower than that of spring 2009. We have documented a substantial and ongoing increase in the number of ARI hospitalizations during the period December 2011-February 2012 and an older age distribution of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza hospitalizations and deaths, relative to 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic patterns. The gradual change in the age distribution of A/H1N1 infections in the post-pandemic period is reminiscent of historical pandemics and indicates either a gradual drift in the A/H1N1 virus, and/or a build-up of immunity among younger populations.

A Coordinated Approach to Communicating Pediatric-Related Information on Pandemic Influenza at the Community Level

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HCTT CHE

2009-12-16

The purpose of this document is to provide a suggested approach, based on input from pediatric stakeholders, to communicating pediatric-related information on pandemic influenza at the community level in a step-by-step manner.

Knowledge, attitude, and behaviour of public health doctors towards pandemic influenza compared to the general population in Italy.

PubMed

La Torre, Giuseppe; Semyonov, Leda; Mannocci, Alice; Boccia, Antonio

2012-02-01

To study differences between public health physicians' and general population's knowledge, attitude, and behaviours towards an influenza pandemic. During winter 2009, an anonymous questionnaire online (www.ijph.it) of 34 questions was available for participants, structured into three parts: socio-demographic information, people's knowledge, and behaviours about influenza H1N1. 836 persons were interviewed (335 physicians and 501 not physicians). Of these, 50.8% of physicians and 78.1% of not physicians were aged less than 50 years and 57.6% of physicians and 31.7% of not physicians were male. Physicians were more interested to be updated about the pandemic (90.6% versus 88.4% of not physicians; p = 0.003); not physicians were more inclined to avoid crowded places (29.7% versus 17.6% of physicians; p < 0.001); and physicians were more prone to get vaccinated (56.4% versus 23.6% of not physicians; p < 0.001). Broadly, physicians had a better ability to deal the pandemic, both for knowledge and behaviours. Particularly, a significant difference (p < 0.001) was found concerning the principle source of information on the pandemic, for physicians being the internet (41.5%), followed by the health facilities' internal communication (33.1%), while for not physicians being watching the national television news (34.1%) and surfing the internet (30.9%). During the spread of the pandemic flu, a lot of information was propagated chaotically. The information given were not always truthful and often they were interpreted incorrectly or sometimes only partially understood by the population, and this needs to be taken into account for future successful communication in cases of emergency.

Antibody responses to influenza A/H1N1pdm09 virus after pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination in healthcare workers: a five-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Trieu, Mai-Chi; Jul-Larsen, Åsne; Sævik, Marianne; Madsen, Anders; Nøstbakken, Jane Kristin; Zhou, Fan; Skrede, Steinar; Cox, Rebecca Jane

2018-06-09

The 2009 influenza pandemic was caused by A/H1N1pdm09 virus, which was subsequently included in the seasonal vaccine as the A/H1N1 strain up to 2016/17. This provided a unique opportunity to investigate the antibody response to H1N1pdm09 over time. Healthcare workers (HCWs) were immunized with the AS03-adjuvanted H1N1pdm09 vaccine in 2009 (N=250), and subsequently vaccinated with seasonal vaccines containing H1N1pdm09 for 4 seasons (repeated group), <4 seasons (occasional group), or received no further vaccinations (single group). Blood samples were collected at 21-days, 3-, 6- and 12-months after each vaccination or annually (pre-season) from 2010 in the single group. The H1N1pdm09-specific antibodies were measured by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. Pandemic vaccination robustly induced HI antibodies that persisted above the 50% protective threshold (HI titers ≥40) over 12-months post-vaccination. Previous seasonal vaccination and the duration of adverse events after pandemic vaccination influenced the decision to vaccinate in subsequent seasons. During 2010/11-2013/14, antibodies were boosted after each seasonal vaccination, although no significant difference was observed between the repeated and occasional groups. In the single group without seasonal vaccination, 32% of HCWs seroconverted (≥4 fold-increase HI titers) during the four subsequent years, most of whom had HI titers <40 prior to seroconversion. When excluding these seroconverted HCWs, HI titers gradually declined from 12- to 60-months post-pandemic vaccination. Pandemic vaccination elicited durable antibodies, supporting the incorporation of adjuvant. Our findings support the current recommendation of annual influenza vaccination in HCWs.

Understanding newsworthiness of an emerging pandemic: international newspaper coverage of the H1N1 outbreak.

PubMed

Smith, Katherine C; Rimal, Rajiv N; Sandberg, Helena; Storey, John D; Lagasse, Lisa; Maulsby, Catherine; Rhoades, Elizabeth; Barnett, Daniel J; Omer, Saad B; Links, Jonathan M

2013-09-01

During an evolving public health crisis, news organizations disseminate information rapidly, much of which is uncertain, dynamic, and difficult to verify. We examine factors related to international news coverage of H1N1 during the first month after the outbreak in late April 2009 and consider the news media's role as an information source during an emerging pandemic. Data on H1N1 news were compiled in real time from newspaper websites across twelve countries between April 29, 2009 and May 28, 2009. A news sample was purposively constructed to capture variation in countries' prior experience with avian influenza outbreaks and pandemic preparation efforts. We analyzed the association between H1N1 news volume and four predictor variables: geographic region, prior experience of a novel flu strain (H5N1), existence of a national pandemic plan, and existence of a localized H1N1 outbreak. H1N1 news was initially extensive but declined rapidly (OR = 0.85, P < .001). Pandemic planning did not predict newsworthiness. However, countries with prior avian flu experience had higher news volume (OR = 1.411, P < .05), suggesting that H1N1 newsworthiness was bolstered by past experiences. The proportion of H1N1 news was significantly lower in Europe than elsewhere (OR = 0.388, P < 0.05). Finally, coverage of H1N1 increased after a first in-country case (OR = 1.415, P < .01), interrupting the pattern of coverage decline. Findings demonstrate the enhanced newsworthiness of localized threats, even during an emerging pandemic. We discuss implications for news media's role in effective public health communication throughout an epidemic given the demonstrated precipitous decline in news interest. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increases in absenteeism among health care workers in Hong Kong during influenza epidemics, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Ip, Dennis K M; Lau, Eric H Y; Tam, Yat Hung; So, Hau Chi; Cowling, Benjamin J; Kwok, Henry K H

2015-12-29

Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are a major cause of sickness absenteeism among health care workers (HCWs) and contribute significantly to overall productivity loss particularly during influenza epidemics. The purpose of this study is to quantify the increases in absenteeism during epidemics including the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. We analysed administrative data to determine patterns of sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong from January 2004 through December 2009, and used multivariable linear regression model to estimate the excess all-cause and ARI-related sickness absenteeism rates during influenza epidemics. We found that influenza epidemics prior to the 2009 pandemic and during the 2009 pandemic were associated with 8.4 % (95 % CI: 5.6-11.2 %) and 57.7 % (95 % CI: 54.6-60.9 %) increases in overall sickness absence, and 26.5 % (95 % CI: 21.4-31.5 %) and 90.9 % (95 % CI: 85.2-96.6 %) increases in ARI-related sickness absence among HCWs in Hong Kong, respectively. Comparing different staff types, increases in overall absenteeism were highest among medical staff, during seasonal influenza epidemic periods (51.3 %, 95 % CI: 38.9-63.7 %) and the pandemic mitigation period (142.1 %, 95 % CI: 128.0-156.1 %). Influenza epidemics were associated with a substantial increase in sickness absence and productivity loss among HCWs in Hong Kong, and there was a much higher rate of absenteeism during the 2009 pandemic. These findings could inform better a more proactive workforce redistribution plans to allow for sufficient surge capacity in annual epidemics, and for pandemic preparedness.

Association of Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus O3:K6 Present in the Coastal Environment of Northwest Mexico with Cases of Recurrent Diarrhea between 2004 and 2010

PubMed Central

Velazquez-Roman, Jorge; León-Sicairos, Nidia; Flores-Villaseñor, Héctor; Villafaña-Rauda, Santiago

2012-01-01

In 2004, more than 1,230 cases of gastroenteritis due to pandemic O3:K6 strains of Vibrio parahaemolyticus were reported in southern Sinaloa, a state in Northwestern Mexico. Recurrent sporadic cases arose from 2004 to 2010, spreading from the south to the north. In the present study, Vibrio parahaemolyticus was detected in both environmental samples and clinical cases along the Pacific coast of Sinaloa during 2004 to 2010. An evaluation was made of the serotypes, distribution of virulence genes, and presence of pandemic O3:K6 strains. A total of 144 strains were isolated from environmental samples (from sediment, seawater, and shrimp), and 154 clinical strains were isolated. A total of 10 O serogroups and 30 serovars were identified in the strains. Environmental strains (n = 144) belonged to 10 O serogroups and 28 serovars, while clinical strains (n = 154) belonged to 8 O serogroups and 14 serovars. Ten serovars were shared by both environmental and clinical strains. Among 144 environmental isolates, 4.1% (6/144) belonged to the pandemic clone, with 83.3% containing the orf8 gene and with O3:K6 accounting for 67%. On the other hand, pathogenic strains (tdh and/or trh) accounted for 52% (75/144) of the environmental isolates. Interestingly, among 154 clinical isolates, 80.5% (124/154) were pandemic strains, with O3:K6 (tdh, toxRSnew, and orf8) representing the predominant serovar (99.2%, 123/124). Overall, our results indicate that in spite of a high serodiversity and prevalence of pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the environment, the pandemic strain O3:K6 caused >79% of reported cases between 2004 and 2010 in Sinaloa, Mexico. PMID:22247160

Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HCTT-CHE

The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthenmore » existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.« less

Potential Risks Associated with the Proposed Widespread Use of Tamiflu

PubMed Central

Singer, Andrew C.; Nunn, Miles A.; Gould, Ernest A.; Johnson, Andrew C.

2007-01-01

Background The threat of pandemic influenza has focused attention and resources on virus surveillance, prevention, and containment. The World Health Organization has strongly recommended the use of the antiviral drug Tamiflu both to treat and prevent pandemic influenza infection. A major concern for the long-term efficacy of this strategy is to limit the development of Tamiflu-resistant influenza strains. However, in the event of a pandemic, hundreds of millions of courses of Tamiflu, stockpiled globally, will be rapidly deployed. Given its apparent resistance to biodegradation and hydrophilicity, oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), the active antiviral and metabolite of Tamiflu, is predicted to enter receiving riverwater from sewage treatment works in its active form. Objective Our objective in this study was to determine the likely concentrations of OC released into U.S. and U.K. river catchments using hydrologic modeling and current assumptions about the course and management of an influenza pandemic. Discussion We predict that high concentrations of OC (micrograms per liter) capable of inhibiting influenza virus replication would be sustained for periods of several weeks, presenting an increased risk for the generation of antiviral resistance and genetic exchange between influenza viruses in wildfowl. Owing to the apparent recalcitrance of OC in sewage treatment works, widespread use of Tamiflu during an influenza pandemic also poses a potentially significant, uncharacterized, ecotoxicologic risk in each affected nation’s waterways. Conclusion To gauge the hazard presented by Tamiflu use during a pandemic, we recommend a) direct measurement of Tamiflu persistence, biodegradation, and transformation in the environment; b) further modeling of likely drug concentrations in the catchments of countries where humans and waterfowl come into frequent close contact, and where significant Tamiflu deployment is envisaged; and c) further characterization of the risks of generating Tamiflu-resistant viruses in OC-exposed wildfowl. PMID:17366827

National surveillance of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection-related admissions to intensive care units during the 2009-10 winter peak in Denmark: two complementary approaches.

PubMed

Gubbels, S; Perner, A; Valentiner-Branth, P; Molbak, K

2010-12-09

Surveillance of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in Denmark was enhanced during the 2009–10 winter season with a system monitoring the burden of the pandemic on intensive care units (ICUs), in order to inform policymakers and detect shortages in ICUs in a timely manner. Between week 46 of 2009 and week 11 of 2010, all 36 relevant Danish ICUs reported in two ways: aggregate data were reported online and case-based data on paper. Cases to be reported were defined as patients admitted to an ICU with laboratory-confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection or clinically suspected illness after close contact with a laboratory-confirmed case. Aggregate numbers of cases were reported weekly: during weeks 48-51 (the peak), reporting was daily. The case-based reports contained demographic and clinical information. The aggregate surveillance registered 93 new cases, the case-based surveillance 61, of whom 53 were laboratory confirmed. The proportion of beds used for influenza patients did not exceed 4.5% of the national capacity. Hospitals with cases used a median of 11% of bed capacity (range: 3–40%). Of the patients for whom information was available, 15 of 48 patients developed renal insufficiency, 19 of 50 developed septic shock and 17 of 53 died. The number of patients with pandemic influenza could be managed within the national bed capacity, although the impact on some ICUs was substantial. The combination of both reporting methods (collecting aggregate and case-based data) proved to be useful for monitoring the burden of the pandemic on ICUs.

Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Maro, Judith C.; Fryback, Dennis G.; Lieu, Tracy A.; Lee, Grace M.; Martin, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system. Methods We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons. Results Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior. Conclusions The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior. PMID:25536228

Chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is associated with pandemic influenza infection, but not with an adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine.

PubMed

Magnus, Per; Gunnes, Nina; Tveito, Kari; Bakken, Inger Johanne; Ghaderi, Sara; Stoltenberg, Camilla; Hornig, Mady; Lipkin, W Ian; Trogstad, Lill; Håberg, Siri E

2015-11-17

Chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME) is associated to infections and it has been suggested that vaccination can trigger the disease. However, little is known about the specific association between clinically manifest influenza/influenza vaccine and CFS/ME. As part of a registry surveillance of adverse effects after mass vaccination in Norway during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, we had the opportunity to estimate and contrast the risk of CFS/ME after infection and vaccination. Using the unique personal identification number assigned to everybody who is registered as resident in Norway, we followed the complete Norwegian population as of October 1, 2009, through national registries of vaccination, communicable diseases, primary health, and specialist health care until December 31, 2012. Hazard ratios (HRs) of CFS/ME, as diagnosed in the specialist health care services (diagnostic code G93.3 in the International Classification of Diseases, Version 10), after influenza infection and/or vaccination were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression. The incidence rate of CFS/ME was 2.08 per 100,000 person-months at risk. The adjusted HR of CFS/ME after pandemic vaccination was 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.91-1.04), while it was 2.04 (95% CI: 1.78-2.33) after being diagnosed with influenza infection during the peak pandemic period. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection was associated with a more than two-fold increased risk of CFS/ME. We found no indication of increased risk of CFS/ME after vaccination. Our findings are consistent with a model whereby symptomatic infection, rather than antigenic stimulation may trigger CFS/ME. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High genetic compatibility and increased pathogenicity of reassortants derived from avian H9N2 and pandemic H1N1/2009 influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Sun, Yipeng; Qin, Kun; Wang, Jingjing; Pu, Juan; Tang, Qingdong; Hu, Yanxin; Bi, Yuhai; Zhao, Xueli; Yang, Hanchun; Shu, Yuelong; Liu, Jinhua

2011-01-01

H9N2 influenza viruses have been circulating worldwide in multiple avian species and repeatedly infecting mammals, including pigs and humans, posing a significant threat to public health. The coexistence of H9N2 and pandemic influenza H1N1/2009 viruses in pigs and humans provides an opportunity for these viruses to reassort. To evaluate the potential public risk of the reassortant viruses derived from these viruses, we used reverse genetics to generate 127 H9 reassortants derived from an avian H9N2 and a pandemic H1N1 virus, and evaluated their compatibility, replication ability, and virulence in mice. These hybrid viruses showed high genetic compatibility and more than half replicated to a high titer in vitro. In vivo studies of 73 of 127 reassortants revealed that all viruses were able to infect mice without prior adaptation and 8 reassortants exhibited higher pathogenicity than both parental viruses. All reassortants with higher virulence than parental viruses contained the PA gene from the 2009 pandemic virus, revealing the important role of the PA gene from the H1N1/2009 virus in generating a reassortant virus with high public health risk. Analyses of the polymerase activity of the 16 ribonucleoprotein combinations in vitro suggested that the PA of H1N1/2009 origin also enhanced polymerase activity. Our results indicate that some avian H9-pandemic reassortants could emerge with a potentially higher threat for humans and also highlight the importance of monitoring the H9-pandemic reassortant viruses that may arise, especially those that possess the PA gene of H1N1/2009 origin. PMID:21368167

Clinical and Virological Factors Associated with Viremia in Pandemic Influenza A/H1N1/2009 Virus Infection

PubMed Central

Tse, Herman; To, Kelvin K. W.; Wen, Xi; Chen, Honglin; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Tsoi, Hoi-Wah; Li, Iris W. S.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

2011-01-01

Background Positive detection of viral RNA in blood and other non-respiratory specimens occurs in severe human influenza A/H5N1 viral infection but is not known to occur commonly in seasonal human influenza infection. Recently, viral RNA was detected in the blood of patients suffering from severe pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 viral infection, although the significance of viremia had not been previously studied. Our study aims to explore the clinical and virological factors associated with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 viremia and to determine its clinical significance. Methodology/Principal Findings Clinical data of patients admitted to hospitals in Hong Kong between May 2009 and April 2010 and tested positive for pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 was collected. Viral RNA was detected by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reactions (RT-PCR) targeting the matrix (M) and HA genes of pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 virus from the following specimens: nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA), endotracheal aspirate (ETA), blood, stool and rectal swab. Stool and/ or rectal swab was obtained only if the patient complained of any gastrointestinal symptoms. A total of 139 patients were included in the study, with viral RNA being detected in the blood of 14 patients by RT-PCR. The occurrence of viremia was strongly associated with a severe clinical presentation and a higher mortality rate, although the latter association was not statistically significant. D222G/N quasispecies were observed in 90% of the blood samples. Conclusion Presence of pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 viremia is an indicator of disease severity and strongly associated with D222G/N mutation in the viral hemagglutinin protein. PMID:21980333

Determination of preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 based on protection motivation theory among female high school students in Isfahan, Iran.

PubMed

Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Yarmohammadi, Parastoo; Sharifabad, Mohammad Ali Morowati; Rahaei, Zohreh

2014-01-01

Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic has recently threatened the health of world's population more than ever. Non-pharmaceutical measures are important to prevent the spread of influenza A/H1N1 and to prevent a pandemic. Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing preventive behavioral. This study reports on predictors of students' preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 using variables based on the protection motivation theory (PMT). In a cross-sectional study, multiple-stage randomized sampling was used to select 300 female students in Isfahan who completed a questionnaire in December 2009. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire based on PMT. The statistical analysis of the data included bivariate correlations, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and linear regression. The mean age of participants was 15.62 (SE = 1.1) years old. Majority of participants were aware regarding pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (87.3%, 262 out of 300). Results showed that, protection motivation was highly significant relationship with preventive behavior and predicted 34% of its variance. We found all of the variables with the exception of perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and response cost were related with protection motivation and explained 22% of its variance. Promotion of students' self-efficacy, and intention to protect themselves from a health threat should be priorities of any programs aimed at promoting preventive behaviors among students. It is also concluded that the protection motivation theory may be used in developing countries, like Iran, as a framework for prevention interventions in an attempt to improve the preventive behaviors of students.

Determination of preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 based on protection motivation theory among female high school students in Isfahan, Iran

PubMed Central

Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Yarmohammadi, Parastoo; Sharifabad, Mohammad Ali Morowati; Rahaei, Zohreh

2014-01-01

Introduction: Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic has recently threatened the health of world's population more than ever. Non-pharmaceutical measures are important to prevent the spread of influenza A/H1N1 and to prevent a pandemic. Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing preventive behavioral. This study reports on predictors of students’ preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 using variables based on the protection motivation theory (PMT). Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study, multiple-stage randomized sampling was used to select 300 female students in Isfahan who completed a questionnaire in December 2009. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire based on PMT. The statistical analysis of the data included bivariate correlations, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and linear regression. Results: The mean age of participants was 15.62 (SE = 1.1) years old. Majority of participants were aware regarding pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (87.3%, 262 out of 300). Results showed that, protection motivation was highly significant relationship with preventive behavior and predicted 34% of its variance. We found all of the variables with the exception of perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and response cost were related with protection motivation and explained 22% of its variance. Conclusion: Promotion of students’ self-efficacy, and intention to protect themselves from a health threat should be priorities of any programs aimed at promoting preventive behaviors among students. It is also concluded that the protection motivation theory may be used in developing countries, like Iran, as a framework for prevention interventions in an attempt to improve the preventive behaviors of students. PMID:24741647

Pandemic influenza preparedness in Latin America: analysis of national strategic plans.

PubMed

Mensua, Ana; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Coker, Richard

2009-07-01

The threat of a human pandemic of influenza has prompted the development of national influenza pandemic preparedness plans over the last 4 years. Analyses have been carried out to assess preparedness in Europe, Asia and Africa. We assessed plans to evaluate the national strategic pandemic influenza preparedness in the countries of Latin America. Published national pandemic influenza preparedness plans from Latin American countries were evaluated against criteria drawn from the World Health Organization checklist. Plans were eligible for inclusion if formally published before 16 November 2007. Fifteen national plans were identified and retrieved from the 17 Latin American countries surveyed. Latin American countries demonstrated different degrees of preparedness, and that a high level of completeness of plans was correlated to a country's wealth to a certain extent. Plans were judged strong in addressing surveillance requirements, and provided appropriate communication strategies directed to the general public and health care personnel. However, gaps remained, including the organization of health care services' response; planning and maintenance of essential services; and the provision of containment measures such as the stockpiling of necessary medical supplies including vaccines and antiviral medications. In addition, some inconsistencies and variations which may be important, such as in border control measures and the capacity to contain outbreaks, exist between country plans-issues that could result in confusion in the event of a pandemic. A number of plans remain developmental in nature and, as elsewhere, more emphasis should be placed on strengthening the operability of plans, and in testing them. Whilst taking account of resources constraints, plans should be further developed in a coherent manner with both regional and international imperatives.

Talking to the people that really matter about their participation in pandemic clinical research: A qualitative study in four European countries.

PubMed

Gobat, Nina H; Gal, Micaela; Butler, Christopher C; Webb, Steve A R; Francis, Nicholas A; Stanton, Helen; Anthierens, Sibyl; Bastiaens, Hilde; Godycki-Ćwirko, Maciek; Kowalczyk, Anna; Pons-Vigués, Mariona; Pujol-Ribera, Enriqueta; Berenguera, Anna; Watkins, Angela; Sukumar, Prasanth; Moore, Ronald G; Hood, Kerenza; Nichol, Alistair

2018-02-01

Pandemics of new and emerging infectious diseases are unpredictable, recurrent events that rapidly threaten global health and security. We aimed to identify public views regarding provision of information and consent to participate in primary and critical care clinical research during a future influenza-like illness pandemic. Descriptive-interpretive qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 10) and semi-structured interviews (n = 16), with 80 members of the public (>18 years) in Belgium, Spain, Poland and the UK. Local qualitative researchers followed a scenario-based topic guide to collect data. Data were transcribed verbatim, translated into English and subject to framework analysis. Public understandings of pandemics were shaped by personal factors (illness during the previous H1N1 pandemic, experience of life-threatening illness) and social factors (historical references, media, public health information). Informants appreciated safeguards provided by ethically robust research procedures, but current enrolment procedures were seen as a barrier. They proposed simplified enrolment processes for higher risk research and consent waiver for certain types of low-risk research. Decision making about research participation was influenced by contextual, research and personal factors. Informants generally either carefully weighed up various approaches to research participation or responded instinctively. They supported the principle of using routinely collected, anonymized clinical biological samples for research without explicit consent, but regarded this as less acceptable if researchers were motivated primarily by commercial gain. This bottom-up approach to ascertaining public views on pandemic clinical research has identified support for more proportionate research protection procedures for publically funded, low-risk studies. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009: clinical and laboratory findings of the first fifty cases in Singapore.

PubMed

Chan, Monica; Chen, Mark I; Chow, Angela; Lee, Caroline P S; Tan, Adriana S H; Lye, David Chien; Leo, Yee Sin

2010-04-01

Since the fi rst imported case on 26 May 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 has spread from travellers and has resulted in sustained community transmission. Singapore began with a strict containment policy where all suspected and confirmed cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 were admitted for testing. We describe here the clinical and laboratory characteristics of the fi rst 50 adult cases with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A review was conducted of medical notes of adult patients with confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by polymerase chain reaction assay from combined nasal and throat swabs admitted to the Communicable Disease Centre, Tan Tock Seng Hospital. From 26 May to 18 June 2009, 50 patients with a median age of 27 years old were admitted at a median of 3 days from illness onset. Half were male and all were travellers arriving in Singapore. Non-Singaporean citizens (38%) and other ethnic groups (40%) were over-represented. History of fever was reported in 90% and respiratory symptoms in 92%. Gastrointestinal symptoms were uncommon, present in 4% only. Temperatures on presentation of >or=38.0 degrees C, >or=37.8 degrees C and >or=37.5 degrees C were present in 48%, 56% and 76%, respectively. Only 46% of patients met the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US CDC) case definition of influenza-like illness (ILI). Clinical and laboratory findings were unremarkable for the majority. All cases were treated with oseltamivir and had uncomplicated recovery. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had mild clinical and laboratory findings in immunocompetent patients. Use of the US CDC ILI criteria alone would have detected less than half of confirmed cases.

Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic: a retrospective evaluation.

PubMed

Khan, Kamran; Eckhardt, Rose; Brownstein, John S; Naqvi, Raza; Hu, Wei; Kossowsky, David; Scales, David; Arino, Julien; MacDonald, Michael; Wang, Jun; Sears, Jennifer; Cetron, Martin S

2013-05-01

To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic. Data from flight itineraries for travellers who flew from Mexico were used to estimate the number of international airports where health screening measures would have been needed, and the number of travellers who would have had to be screened, to assess all air travellers who could have transported the H1N1 influenza virus out of Mexico during the initial stages of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. Exit screening at 36 airports in Mexico, or entry screening of travellers arriving on direct flights from Mexico at 82 airports in 26 other countries, would have resulted in the assessment of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico at the start of the pandemic. Entry screening of 116 travellers arriving from Mexico by direct or connecting flights would have been necessary for every one traveller at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09. Screening at just eight airports would have resulted in the assessment of 90% of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico in the early stages of the pandemic. During the earliest stages of the A(H1N1) pandemic, most public health benefits potentially attainable through the screening of air travellers could have been achieved by screening travellers at only eight airports.

1918 pandemic morbidity: The first wave hits the poor, the second wave hits the rich.

PubMed

Mamelund, Svenn-Erik

2018-05-01

Whether morbidity from the 1918-19 influenza pandemic discriminated by socioeconomic status has remained a subject of debate for 100 years. In lack of data to study this issue, the recent literature has hypothesized that morbidity was "socially neutral." To study the associations between influenza-like illness (ILI) and socioeconomic status (SES), gender, and wave during the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. Availability of incidence data on the 1918-19 pandemic is scarce, in particular for waves other than the "fall wave" October-December 1918. Here, an overlooked survey from Bergen, Norway (n = 10 633), is used to study differences in probabilities of ILI and ILI probability ratios by apartment size as a measure of SES and gender for 3 waves including the waves prior to and after the "fall wave." Socioeconomic status was negatively associated with ILI in the first wave, but positively associated in the second wave. At all SES levels, men had the highest ILI in the summer, while women had the highest ILI in the fall. There were no SES or gender differences in ILI in the winter of 1919. For the first time, it is documented a crossover in the role of socioeconomic status in 1918 pandemic morbidity. The poor came down with influenza first, while the rich with less exposure in the first wave had the highest morbidity in the second wave. The study suggests that the socioeconomically disadvantaged should be prioritized if vaccines are of limited availability in a future pandemic. © 2018 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Obstetricians and the 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination effort: implications for future pandemics.

PubMed

Clark, Sarah J; Cowan, Anne E; Wortley, Pascale M

2013-09-01

Our objective was to describe the experiences of obstetricians during the 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination campaign in order to identify possible improvements for future pandemic situations. We conducted a cross-sectional mail survey of a national random sample of 4,000 obstetricians, fielded in Summer 2010. Survey items included availability, recommendation, and patient acceptance of H1N1 vaccine; prioritization of H1N1 vaccine when supply was limited; problems with H1N1 vaccination; and likelihood of providing vaccine during a future influenza pandemic. Response rate was 66 %. Obstetricians strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine during the second (85 %) and third (86 %) trimesters, and less often during the first trimester (71 %) or the immediate postpartum period (76 %); patient preferences followed a similar pattern. H1N1 vaccine was typically available in outpatient obstetrics clinics (80 %). Overall vaccine supply was a major problem for 30 % of obstetricians, but few rated lack of thimerosal-free vaccine as a major problem (12 %). Over half of obstetricians had no major problems with the H1N1 vaccine campaign. Based on this experience, 74 % would be "very likely" and 12 % "likely" to provide vaccine in the event of a future influenza pandemic. Most obstetricians strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine, had few logistical problems beyond limited vaccine supply, and are willing to vaccinate in a future pandemic. Addressing concerns about first-trimester vaccination, developing guidance for prioritization of vaccine in the event of severe supply constraints, and continued facilitation of the logistical aspects of vaccination should be emphasized in future influenza pandemics.

Supply of neuraminidase inhibitors related to reduced influenza A (H1N1) mortality during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic: an ecological study.

PubMed

Miller, Paula E; Rambachan, Aksharananda; Hubbard, Roderick J; Li, Jiabai; Meyer, Alison E; Stephens, Peter; Mounts, Anthony W; Rolfes, Melissa A; Penn, Charles R

2012-01-01

The influenza A (H1N1) pandemic swept across the globe from April 2009 to August 2010 affecting millions. Many WHO Member States relied on antiviral drugs, specifically neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) oseltamivir and zanamivir, to treat influenza patients in critical condition. Such drugs have been found to be effective in reducing severity and duration of influenza illness, and likely reduced morbidity during the pandemic. However, it is less clear whether NAIs used during the pandemic reduced H1N1 mortality. Country-level data on supply of oseltamivir and zanamivir were used to predict H1N1 mortality (per 100,000 people) from July 2009 to August 2010 in forty-two WHO Member States. Poisson regression was used to model the association between NAI supply and H1N1 mortality, with adjustment for economic, demographic, and health-related confounders. After adjustment for potential confounders, each 10% increase in kilograms of oseltamivir, per 100,000 people, was associated with a 1.6% reduction in H1N1 mortality over the pandemic period (relative rate (RR) = 0.84 per log increase in oseltamivir supply). While the supply of zanamivir was considerably less than that of oseltamivir in each Member State, each 10% increase in kilogram of active zanamivir, per 100,000, was associated with a 0.3% reduction in H1N1 mortality (RR = 0.97 per log increase). While there are limitations to the ecologic nature of these data, this analysis offers evidence of a protective relationship between antiviral drug supply and influenza mortality and supports a role for influenza antiviral use in future pandemics.

H1N1 viral proteome peptide microarray predicts individuals at risk for H1N1 infection and segregates infection versus Pandemrix® vaccination

PubMed Central

Ambati, Aditya; Valentini, Davide; Montomoli, Emanuele; Lapini, Guilia; Biuso, Fabrizio; Wenschuh, Holger; Magalhaes, Isabelle; Maeurer, Markus

2015-01-01

A high content peptide microarray containing the entire influenza A virus [A/California/08/2009(H1N1)] proteome and haemagglutinin proteins from 12 other influenza A subtypes, including the haemagglutinin from the [A/South Carolina/1/1918(H1N1)] strain, was used to gauge serum IgG epitope signatures before and after Pandemrix® vaccination or H1N1 infection in a Swedish cohort during the pandemic influenza season 2009. A very narrow pattern of pandemic flu-specific IgG epitope recognition was observed in the serum from individuals who later contracted H1N1 infection. Moreover, the pandemic influenza infection generated IgG reactivity to two adjacent epitopes of the neuraminidase protein. The differential serum IgG recognition was focused on haemagglutinin 1 (H1) and restricted to classical antigenic sites (Cb) in both the vaccinated controls and individuals with flu infections. We further identified a novel epitope VEPGDKITFEATGNL on the Ca antigenic site (251–265) of the pandemic flu haemagglutinin, which was exclusively recognized in serum from individuals with previous vaccinations and never in serum from individuals with H1N1 infection (confirmed by RNA PCR analysis from nasal swabs). This epitope was mapped to the receptor-binding domain of the influenza haemagglutinin and could serve as a correlate of immune protection in the context of pandemic flu. The study shows that unbiased epitope mapping using peptide microarray technology leads to the identification of biologically and clinically relevant target structures. Most significantly an H1N1 infection induced a different footprint of IgG epitope recognition patterns compared with the pandemic H1N1 vaccine. PMID:25639813

People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior.

PubMed

Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

2015-01-01

Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior

PubMed Central

Xu, Jianhua; Peng, Zongchao

2015-01-01

Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped. PMID:26658371

Novel triple reassortant H1N2 influenza viruses bearing six internal genes of the pandemic 2009/H1N1 influenza virus were detected in pigs in China.

PubMed

Qiao, Chuanling; Liu, Liping; Yang, Huanliang; Chen, Yan; Xu, Huiyang; Chen, Hualan

2014-12-01

The pandemic A/H1N1 influenza viruses emerged in both Mexico and the United States in March 2009, and were transmitted efficiently in the human population. Transmissions of the pandemic 2009/H1N1 virus from humans to poultry and other species of mammals were reported from several continents during the course of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Reassortant H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2 viruses containing genes of the pandemic 2009/H1N1 viruses appeared in pigs in some countries. In winter of 2012, a total of 2600 nasal swabs were collected from healthy pigs in slaughterhouses located throughout 10 provinces in China. The isolated viruses were subjected to genetic and antigenic analysis. Two novel triple-reassortant H1N2 influenza viruses were isolated from swine in China in 2012, with the HA gene derived from Eurasian avian-like swine H1N1, the NA gene from North American swine H1N2, and the six internal genes from the pandemic 2009/H1N1 viruses. The two viruses had similar antigenic features and some significant changes in antigenic characteristics emerged when compared to the previously identified isolates. We inferred that the novel reassortant viruses in China may have arisen from the accumulation of the three types of influenza viruses, which further indicates that swine herds serve as "mixing vessels" for influenza viruses. Influenza virus reassortment is an ongoing process, and our findings highlight the urgent need for continued influenza surveillance among swine herds. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) hospitalization rates in California, USA: a geospatial analysis.

PubMed

Maliszewski, Paul J; Wei, Ran

2011-11-01

The 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus subtype (H1N1) pandemic had a large impact in the United States of America (USA), causing an estimated 192,000 to 398,000 hospitalizations and 8,720 to 18,050 deaths between April 2009 and mid-March 2010. Recent research on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic has largely focused on individual, non-spatial demographic characterizations (e.g. age and race/ethnicity) associated with H1N1 hospitalizations. Broader ecological factors such as transportation use, land use and other socioeconomic factors are important aspects of influenza studies that have not been empirically examined. This research explores and identifies ecological factors associated with 2009 H1N1 pandemic hospitalization rates. We conducted a spatial regression analysis of county level hospitalization rates from 3 April to 15 September, 2009 obtained via the California Department of Public Health. Hospitalization rates were found to be spatially dependent. Public transportation usage rates and agricultural land use proportions were significant environmental factors positively related to hospitalization rates. Consistent with public health official's assumptions and existing evidence, county percentages of persons less than 18 years of age were positively associated with hospitalization. These findings help to clarify the limited consensus and dubious evidence on the role of broader ecological factors associated with pandemic influenza. A better understanding of the ecological risk factors associated with hospitalizations should also benefit public health officials with respect to their work aiming at improving emergency supply allocation and non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies in the context of an influenza pandemic.

Regional patterns of mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic in Newfoundland.

PubMed

Sattenspiel, Lisa

2011-07-22

The Spanish Influenza pandemic reached the island of Newfoundland in the summer of 1918 and by the time it disappeared, nearly 2000 of its 250,000 residents died. The pandemic spread in several waves, including a mild outbreak during the summer of 1918 (Wave I), a major, deadly outbreak in the succeeding fall and spring (Wave II), and a small echo wave in 1920. All parts of the island experienced the epidemic, but the effects varied across districts, both in timing and in severity. Overall P&I mortality rates across districts during the entire epidemic (1918-1920) ranged from 28.6 to 109.3 deaths per 10,000 population, with the island as a whole experiencing a mortality rate of 74.5 per 10,000. This island-wide mortality rate was 4.5 times higher than the P&I mortality rate for the 3 years immediately preceding the epidemic. Estimates of the reproduction number, R, range from 1.2 to 2.4 for Wave I and from 2.4 to 9.3 for Wave II. The pandemic experience on Newfoundland illustrates the high degree of regional variability in incidence and severity that epidemics can exhibit. In addition, compared to other world regions, the island's pandemic peaked relatively late and exhibited an unusual bimodal peak during Wave II, emphasizing that local and regional conditions can have major influences on timing, location, and rate of spread. This suggests the need to for greater understanding of how local factors influence epidemic spread so that more effective control strategies can be developed for populations experiencing future influenza pandemics. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Entry and exit screening of airline travellers during the A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic: a retrospective evaluation

PubMed Central

Eckhardt, Rose; Brownstein, John S; Naqvi, Raza; Hu, Wei; Kossowsky, David; Scales, David; Arino, Julien; MacDonald, Michael; Wang, Jun; Sears, Jennifer; Cetron, Martin S

2013-01-01

Abstract Objective To evaluate the screening measures that would have been required to assess all travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico by air at the start of the 2009 pandemic. Methods Data from flight itineraries for travellers who flew from Mexico were used to estimate the number of international airports where health screening measures would have been needed, and the number of travellers who would have had to be screened, to assess all air travellers who could have transported the H1N1 influenza virus out of Mexico during the initial stages of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic. Findings Exit screening at 36 airports in Mexico, or entry screening of travellers arriving on direct flights from Mexico at 82 airports in 26 other countries, would have resulted in the assessment of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico at the start of the pandemic. Entry screening of 116 travellers arriving from Mexico by direct or connecting flights would have been necessary for every one traveller at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09. Screening at just eight airports would have resulted in the assessment of 90% of all air travellers at risk of transporting A(H1N1)pdm09 out of Mexico in the early stages of the pandemic. Conclusion During the earliest stages of the A(H1N1) pandemic, most public health benefits potentially attainable through the screening of air travellers could have been achieved by screening travellers at only eight airports. PMID:23678200

Challenges and changes: Immunization program managers share perspectives in a 2012 national survey about the US immunization system since the H1N1 pandemic response

PubMed Central

Seib, Katherine; Chamberlain, Allison; Wells, Katelyn; Curran, Eileen; Whitney, Ellen AS; Orenstein, Walter A; Hinman, Alan R; Omer, Saad B

2014-01-01

In mid-2012 we conducted survey of immunization program managers (IPMs) for the purpose of describing relationships between immunization programs and emergency preparedness programs, IPM's perceptions of challenges encountered and changes made or planned in programmatic budgeting, vaccine allocation and pandemic plans as a result of the H1N1 vaccination campaign. Over 95% of IPMs responded (61/64) to the survey. IPMs reported that a primary budget-related challenge faced during H1N1 included staff-related restrictions that limited the ability to hire extra help or pay regular staff overtime resulting in overworked regular staff. Other budget-related challenges related to operational budget shortfalls and vaccine procurement delays. IPMs described overcoming these challenges by increasing staff where possible, using executive order or other high-level support by officials to access emergency funds and make policy changes, as well as expedite hiring and spending processes according to their pandemic influenza plan or by direction from leadership. Changes planned for response to future pandemic vaccine allocation strategies were to “tailor the strategy to the event” taking into account disease virulence, vaccine production rates and public demand, having flexible vaccine allocation strategies, clarifying priority groups for vaccine receipt to providers and the public, and having targeted clinics such as through pharmacies or schools. Changes already made to pandemic plans were improving strategies for internal and external communication, improving vaccine allocation efficiency, and planning for specific scenarios. To prepare for future pandemics, programs should ensure well-defined roles, collaborating during non-emergency situations, sustaining continuity in preparedness funding, and improved technologies. PMID:25483633

Guillain-Barré syndrome and adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine: multinational case-control study in Europe

PubMed Central

Dieleman, Jeanne; Romio, Silvana; Johansen, Kari; Weibel, Daniel; Bonhoeffer, Jan

2011-01-01

Objective To assess the association between pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Design Case-control study. Setting Five European countries. Participants 104 patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome and its variant Miller-Fisher syndrome matched to one or more controls. Case status was classified according to the Brighton Collaboration definition. Controls were matched to cases on age, sex, index date, and country. Main outcome measures Relative risk estimate for Guillain-Barré syndrome after pandemic influenza vaccine. Results Case recruitment and vaccine coverage varied considerably between countries; the most common vaccines used were adjuvanted (Pandemrix and Focetria). The unadjusted pooled risk estimate for all countries was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 6.0). After adjustment for influenza-like illness/upper respiratory tract infection and seasonal influenza vaccination, receipt of pandemic influenza vaccine was not associated with an increased risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (adjusted odds ratio 1.0, 0.3 to 2.7). The 95% confidence interval shows that the absolute effect of vaccination could range from one avoided case of Guillain-Barré syndrome up to three excess cases within six weeks after vaccination in one million people. Conclusions The risk of occurrence of Guillain-Barré syndrome is not increased after pandemic influenza vaccine, although the upper limit does not exclude a potential increase in risk up to 2.7-fold or three excess cases per one million vaccinated people. When assessing the association between pandemic influenza vaccines and Guillain-Barré syndrome it is important to account for the effects of influenza-like illness/upper respiratory tract infection, seasonal influenza vaccination, and calendar time. PMID:21750072

Nonpharmaceutical Influenza Mitigation Strategies, US Communities, 1918–1920 Pandemic1

PubMed Central

Stern, Alexandra M.; Navarro, J. Alexander; Michalsen, Joseph R.; Monto, Arnold S.; DiGiovanni, Cleto

2006-01-01

We studied nonpharmaceutical interventions used to mitigate the second, and most deadly, wave of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in the United States. We conclude that several small communities implemented potentially successful attempts at preventing the introduction of influenza. PMID:17326953

75 FR 9914 - Statement of Organization, Functions, and Delegations of Authority

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-04

... national centers' initiatives, performance, and achievements. Influenza Coordination Unit (CVA4). The mission of the Influenza Coordination Unit (ICU) is to synchronize all aspects of CDC's pandemic influenza... Diseases on pandemic influenza preparedness and response activities, assisting the Director and Deputy...

Ethical guidelines in pandemic influenza: recommendations of the Ethics Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee of the Director, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

PubMed

Kinlaw, Kathy; Barrett, Drue H; Levine, Robert J

2009-12-01

Because of the importance of including ethical considerations in planning efforts for pandemic influenza, in February 2005 the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention requested that the Ethics Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee to the Director develop guidance that would serve as a foundation for decision making in preparing for and responding to pandemic influenza. Specifically, the ethics subcommittee was asked to make recommendations regarding ethical considerations relevant to decision making about vaccine and antiviral drug distribution prioritization and development of interventions that would limit individual freedom and create social distancing. The ethics subcommittee identified a number of general ethical considerations including identification of clear goals for pandemic planning, responsibility to maximize preparedness, transparency and public engagement, sound science, commitment to the global community, balancing individual liberty and community interests, diversity in ethical decision making, and commitment to justice. These general ethical considerations are applied to the issues of vaccine and antiviral drug distribution and use of community mitigation interventions.

Influenza: forecast for a pandemic.

PubMed

de la Barrera, Claudia Alvarado; Reyes-Terán, Gustavo

2005-01-01

Recently, great speculation about a possible influenza pandemic has been made. However, the facts supporting the possibility of this threat are less discussed. During the last decade highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza virus, including the H5N1 subtype, crossed the species barriers from birds to humans and caused fatal disease. The Z strain of H5N1 subtype is characterized by pathogenicity to a larger number of animal species and by resistance to the older class of antiviral drugs. At present, two out of three general conditions for the onset of a pandemic have been met; namely, the emergence of a new virus and its ability to replicate in humans causing serious illness. Should the virus achieve efficient human-to-human transmission, the next influenza pandemic might occur. This review addresses these biological and epidemiological aspects of influenza in the context of history and characteristics of previous epidemics, as well as concrete actions that can be undertaken considering current understanding of influenza pathogenesis, treatment, and control possibilities.

Economic evaluation of influenza pandemic mitigation strategies in the us using a stochastic microsimulation transmission model

PubMed Central

Sander, Beate; Nizam, Azhar; Garrison, Louis P.; Postma, Maarten J.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

2013-01-01

Objectives To project the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies from a societal perspective in the United States. Methods We use a stochastic agent-based model to simulate pandemic influenza in the community. We compare 17 strategies: targeted antiviral prophylaxis (TAP) alone and in combination with school closure as well as prevaccination. Results In the absence of intervention, we predict a 50% attack rate with an economic impact of $187 per capita as loss to society. Full TAP is the most effective single strategy, reducing number of cases by 54% at the lowest cost to society ($127 per capita). Prevaccination reduces number of cases by 48% and is the second least costly alternative ($140 per capita). Adding school closure to full TAP or prevaccination further improves health outcomes, but increases total cost to society by approximately $2700 per capita. Conclusion Full targeted antiviral prophylaxis is an effective and cost-saving measure for mitigating pandemic influenza. PMID:18671770

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Kiliç, Selim; Gray, Gregory C.

2008-01-01

Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. PMID:18516249

Applying social science and public health methods to community-based pandemic planning.

PubMed

Danforth, Elizabeth J; Doying, Annette; Merceron, Georges; Kennedy, Laura

2010-11-01

Pandemic influenza is a unique threat to communities, affecting schools, businesses, health facilities and individuals in ways not seen in other emergency events. This paper aims to outline a local government project which utilised public health and social science research methods to facilitate the creation of an emergency response plan for pandemic influenza coincidental to the early stages of the 2009 H1N1 ('swine flu') outbreak. A multi-disciplinary team coordinated the creation of a pandemic influenza emergency response plan which utilised emergency planning structure and concepts and encompassed a diverse array of county entities including schools, businesses, community organisations, government agencies and healthcare facilities. Lessons learned from this project focus on the need for (1) maintaining relationships forged during the planning process, (2) targeted public health messaging, (3) continual evolution of emergency plans, (4) mutual understanding of emergency management concepts by business and community leaders, and (5) regional coordination with entities outside county boundaries.

Reducing Occurrence and Severity of Pneumonia Due to Pandemic H1N1 2009 by Early Oseltamivir Administration: A Retrospective Study in Mexico

PubMed Central

Higuera Iglesias, Anjarath Lorena; Kudo, Koichiro; Manabe, Toshie; Corcho Berdugo, Alexander Enrique; Baeza, Ariel Corrales; Ramos, Leticia Alfaro; Gutiérrez, René Guevara; Manjarrez Zavala, María Eugenia; Takasaki, Jin; Izumi, Shinyu; Bautista, Edgar; Perez Padilla, José Rogelio

2011-01-01

Background Anti-viral treatment has been used to treat severe or progressive illness due to pandemic H1N1 2009. A main cause of severe illness in pandemic H1N1 2009 is viral pneumonia; however, it is unclear how effective antiviral treatment is against pneumonia when administered >48 hours after symptom onset. Therefore, we aimed to determine how time from symptom onset to antiviral administration affected the effectiveness of antiviral treatment against pneumonia due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods/Principal Findings A retrospective medical chart review of 442 patients was conducted in a hospital in Mexico. Subjects had tested positive for pandemic H1N1 2009 virus by real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction and were administered oseltamivir. Median time from symptom onset to oseltamivir administration was 5.0 days (range, 0–43). 442 subjects, 71 (16.1%) had severe pneumonia which required mechanical ventilation, 191 (43.2%) had mild to moderate pneumonia, and 180 (40%) did not have pneumonia. Subjects were divided into four groups based on time to oseltamivir administration: ≤2, 3–7, 8–14, and >14 days. Severity of respiratory features was associated with time to treatment, and multivariate analysis indicated that time to oseltamivir administration was associated with severity of respiratory features. A proportional odds model indicated that 50% probability for occurrence of pneumonia of any severity and that of severe pneumonia in patients who would develop pneumonia reached at approximately 3.4 and 21 days, respectively, after symptom onset. Patients with a shorter time to oseltamivir administration were discharged earlier from the hospital. Conclusions Earlier initiation of oseltamivir administration after symptom onset significantly reduced occurrence and severity of pneumonia and shortened hospitalization due to pandemic H1N1 2009. Even when administered >48 hours after symptom onset, oseltamivir showed considerable potential for reducing pneumonia. Application of these results would benefit patients affected by future influenza pandemics. PMID:21760915

Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) and Its Prevention: A Cross Sectional Study on Patients’ Knowledge, Attitude and Practice among Patients Attending Primary Health Care Clinic in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Latiff, Latiffah A; Parhizkar, Saadat; Zainuddin, Huda; Chun, Goh M; Ramli, Mohammad Ali A Rahiman Nur Liyana N; Yun, Kerk L

2012-01-01

The World Health Organization confirmed that the novel influenza A, H1N1 as a pandemic on 11 June 2009. After less than three months, 182 countries were affected by the pandemic accounting for about 150,000 infected cases and 3000 mortality. Successful H1N1 pandemic management strategies’ shaped by making changes in health behavior. The aim of this study was to document patients’ knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) regarding the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) and its prevention. We performed a cross-sectional study on knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) on preventive measures of Influenza A (H1N1) involving 322 patients attending Klinik Kesihatan Jinjang, a primary health care clinic in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia from May 10 to 26, 2010 using a face to face interview with a structured pre-tested questionnaire. The majority of the respondents were females (56.8%), Malays (43.2%) aged between 18-27 years old (28.9%). There were significant association between knowledge on the complication of H1N1, effectiveness of the treatment, preventive measures of Influenza A (H1N1) and race (p<0.001) and educational level (p<0.001). There were also significant associations between attitude scores of these patients and their gender (p=0.03), and educational level (p=0.001). Practice scores related to H1N1 were found to be significantly associated with race (p<0.001) and educational level (p<0.001). The significant associations were observed between knowledge and attitude (p<0.001), knowledge and practices (p<0.001), as well as attitude and practices related to H1N1 (p<0.001). Knowledge has a crucial effect on patients’ attitude and practice particularly in a pandemic spread. So health policy makers should attempt to disseminate information about preventive measures to community in order to improve their preventive practices during pandemics. PMID:22980156

Whole genome characterization of human influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated from Kenya during the 2009 pandemic.

PubMed

Gachara, George; Symekher, Samuel; Otieno, Michael; Magana, Japheth; Opot, Benjamin; Bulimo, Wallace

2016-06-01

An influenza pandemic caused by a novel influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 spread worldwide in 2009 and is estimated to have caused between 151,700 and 575,400 deaths globally. While whole genome data on new virus enables a deeper insight in the pathogenesis, epidemiology, and drug sensitivities of the circulating viruses, there are relatively limited complete genetic sequences available for this virus from African countries. We describe herein the full genome analysis of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated in Kenya between June 2009 and August 2010. A total of 40 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses isolated during the pandemic were selected. The segments from each isolate were amplified and directly sequenced. The resulting sequences of individual gene segments were concatenated and used for subsequent analysis. These were used to infer phylogenetic relationships and also to reconstruct the time of most recent ancestor, time of introduction into the country, rates of substitution and to estimate a time-resolved phylogeny. The Kenyan complete genome sequences clustered with globally distributed clade 2 and clade 7 sequences but local clade 2 viruses did not circulate beyond the introductory foci while clade 7 viruses disseminated country wide. The time of the most recent common ancestor was estimated between April and June 2009, and distinct clusters circulated during the pandemic. The complete genome had an estimated rate of nucleotide substitution of 4.9×10(-3) substitutions/site/year and greater diversity in surface expressed proteins was observed. We show that two clades of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus were introduced into Kenya from the UK and the pandemic was sustained as a result of importations. Several closely related but distinct clusters co-circulated locally during the peak pandemic phase but only one cluster dominated in the late phase of the pandemic suggesting that it possessed greater adaptability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Retrospective multicenter matched case-control study on the risk factors for narcolepsy with special focus on vaccinations (including pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections in Germany.

PubMed

Oberle, Doris; Pavel, Jutta; Mayer, Geert; Geisler, Peter; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

2017-06-01

Studies associate pandemic influenza vaccination with narcolepsy. In Germany, a retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for narcolepsy, particularly regarding vaccinations (seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections (seasonal and pandemic influenza) and to quantify the detected risks. Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness who had been referred to a sleep center between April 2009 and December 2012 for multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) were eligible. Case report forms were validated according to the criteria for narcolepsy defined by the Brighton Collaboration (BC). Confirmed cases of narcolepsy (BC level of diagnostic certainty 1-4a) were matched with population-based controls by year of birth, gender, and place of residence. A second control group was established including patients in whom narcolepsy was definitely excluded (test-negative controls). A total of 103 validated cases of narcolepsy were matched with 264 population-based controls. The second control group included 29 test-negative controls. A significantly increased odd ratio (OR) to develop narcolepsy (crude OR [cOR] = 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-8.5; adjusted OR [aOR] = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-9.9) was detected in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset as compared to nonvaccinated individuals. Using test-negative controls, in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset, a nonsignificantly increased OR of narcolepsy was detected when compared to nonvaccinated individuals (whole study population, BC levels 1-4a: cOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9; aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.3-10.1). The findings of this study support an increased risk for narcolepsy after immunization with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The health care response to pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Barnitz, Laura; Berkwits, Michael

2006-07-18

The threat of an H5N1 influenza virus (avian flu) pandemic is substantial. The success of the current U.S. influenza pandemic response plan depends on effective coordination among state and local public health authorities and individual health care providers. This article is a summary of a public policy paper developed by the American College of Physicians to address issues in the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Pandemic Influenza Plan that involve physicians. The College's positions call for the following: 1) development of local public health task forces that include physicians representing all specialties and practice settings; 2) physician access to 2-way communication with public health authorities and to information technology tools for diagnosis and syndrome surveillance; 3) clear identification and authorization of agencies to process licensing and registration of volunteer physicians; 4) clear guidelines for overriding standard procedures for confidentiality and consent in the interest of the public's health; 5) clear and fair infection control measures that do not create barriers to care; 6) analysis of and solutions to current problems with seasonal influenza vaccination programs as a way of developing a maximally efficient pandemic flu vaccine program; 7) federal funding to provide pandemic flu vaccine for the entire U.S. population and antiviral drugs for 25% of the population; and 8) planning for health care in alternative, nonhospital settings to prevent a surge in demand for hospital care that exceeds supply. *This paper is an abridged version of a full-text position paper (available at http://www.acponline.org/college/pressroom/as06/pandemic_policy.pdf) written by Laura Barnitz, BJ, MA, and updated and adapted for publication in Annals of Internal Medicine by Michael Berkwits, MD, MSCE. The original position paper was developed for the Health and Public Policy Committee of the American College of Physicians: Jeffrey P. Harris, MD (Chair); David L. Bronson, MD (Vice Chair); CPT Julie Ake, MD; Patricia P. Barry, MD; Molly Cooke, MD; Herbert S. Diamond, MD; Joel S. Levine, MD; Mark E. Mayer, MD; Thomas McGinn, MD; Robert M. McLean, MD; Ashley E. Starkweather; and Frederick E. Turton, MD. It was approved by the Board of Regents on 3 April 2006.

Impact of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on Australasian critical care units.

PubMed

Drennan, Kelly; Hicks, Peter; Hart, Graeme

2010-12-01

To identify the resource usage by patients with influenza A H1N1 admitted to Australian and New Zealand intensive care units during the first wave of the pandemic in June, July and August 2009. Data were collected in two separate surveys: the 2007-08 resource and activity survey and the 2009 influenza pandemic survey. Participants comprised 143 of the 189 Australian and New Zealand critical care units identified by the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Centre for Outcome and Resource Evaluation (ANZICS CORE). Mean length of stay (LOS) and ventilation data for H1N1 patients were reported by the ANZIC Influenza Investigators study from the same units over the same time period. Mean LOS for all ICU admissions was obtained from the ANZICS CORE adult patient database 10-year study. H1N1 patient admissions as a proportion of all ICU admissions; H1N1 patient bed-days as a proportion of total bed-days; ventilation resource usage by H1N1 patients; changes in ICU admissions for elective surgery during the H1N1 pandemic. Over the period June-August 2009, among 30 222 ICU admissions to 133 ICUs contributing data, 704 patients (2.3%) had H1N1 influenza A. Twenty-eight units had no H1N1 patient admissions. The peak of the pandemic in Australia and New Zealand occurred in July 2009, when H1N1 patients represented 3.7% of all ICU admissions for July and 53.5% of all H1N1 patient admissions in the period June-August 2009. We estimate that H1N1 cases required approximately 12.4% of the ventilator resources and used 8.1% of total patient bed-days. During the pandemic, there was a 3.2 percentage-point reduction in elective admissions to public hospitals (from 32.5% to 29.3%). Low rates of admission of H1N1 patients to ICUs during the 2009 pandemic enabled the intensive care system to cope with the large demand when analysed at a jurisdictional level.

Connecting the study of wild influenza with the potential for pandemic disease

PubMed Central

Runstadler, Jonathan; Hill, Nichola; Hussein, Islam T.M.; Puryear, Wendy; Keogh, Mandy

2013-01-01

Continuing outbreaks of pathogenic (H5N1) and pandemic (SOIVH1N1) influenza have underscored the need to understand the origin, characteristics, and evolution of novel influenza A virus (IAV) variants that pose a threat to human health. In the last 4–5 years, focus has been placed on the organization of large-scale surveillance programs to examine the phylogenetics of avian influenza virus (AIV) and host-virus relationships in domestic and wild animals. Here we review the current gaps in wild animal and environmental surveillance and the current understanding of genetic signatures in potentially pandemic strains. PMID:23541413

Experimental vaccines against potentially pandemic and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Mooney, Alaina J; Tompkins, S Mark

2013-01-01

Influenza A viruses continue to emerge and re-emerge, causing outbreaks, epidemics and occasionally pandemics. While the influenza vaccines licensed for public use are generally effective against seasonal influenza, issues arise with production, immunogenicity, and efficacy in the case of vaccines against pandemic and emerging influenza viruses, and highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in particular. Thus, there is need of improved influenza vaccines and vaccination strategies. This review discusses advances in alternative influenza vaccines, touching briefly on licensed vaccines and vaccine antigens; then reviewing recombinant subunit vaccines, virus-like particle vaccines and DNA vaccines, with the main focus on virus-vectored vaccine approaches. PMID:23440999

Pandemic Influenza and Pregnancy: An Opportunity to Reassess Maternal Bioethics

PubMed Central

Beigi, Richard H.

2009-01-01

Large-scale infectious epidemics present the medical community with numerous medical and ethical challenges. Recent attention has focused on the likelihood of an impending influenza pandemic caused by the H5N1 virus. Pregnant women in particular present policymakers with great challenges to planning for such a public health emergency. By recognizing the specific considerations needed for this population, we can preemptively address the issues presented by infectious disease outbreaks. We reviewed the important ethical challenges presented by pregnant women and highlighted the considerations for all vulnerable groups when planning for a pandemic at both the local and the national level. PMID:19461111

The prospects and challenges of universal vaccines for influenza

PubMed Central

Subbarao, Kanta; Matsuoka, Yumiko

2013-01-01

Vaccination is the most effective way to reduce the impact of epidemic as well as pandemic influenza. However, the licensed inactivated influenza vaccine induces strain-specific immunity and must be updated annually. When novel viruses appear, matched vaccines are not likely to be available in time for the first wave of a pandemic. Yet, the enormous diversity of influenza A viruses in nature makes it impossible to predict which subtype or strain will cause the next pandemic. Several recent scientific advances have generated renewed enthusiasm and hope for universal vaccines that will induce broad protection from a range of influenza viruses. PMID:23685068

Self-reported anticipated compliance with physician advice to stay home during pandemic (H1N1) 2009: Results from the 2009 Queensland Social Survey

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background One strategy available to public health officials during a pandemic is physician recommendations for isolation of infected individuals. This study was undertaken during the height of the Australian pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak to measure self-reported willingness to comply with physician recommendations to stay home for seven days, and to compare responses for the current strain of pandemic influenza, avian influenza, seasonal influenza, and the common cold. Methods Data were collected as part of the Queensland Social Survey (QSS) 2009, which consisted of a standardized introduction, 37 demographic questions, and research questions incorporated through a cost-sharing arrangement. Four questions related to respondents' anticipated compliance with a physician's advice to stay home if they had a common cold, seasonal influenza, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza or avian influenza were incorporated into QSS 2009, with responses recorded using a balanced Likert scale ranging from "very unlikely" to "very likely." Discordance between responses for different diseases was analysed using McNemar's test. Associations between demographic variables and anticipated compliance were analysed using Pearson's chi-square or chi-square for linear-by-linear association, and confirmed using multivariate logistic regression; p < 0.05 was used to establish statistical significance. Results Self-reported anticipated compliance increased from 59.9% for the common cold to 71.3% for seasonal influenza (p < .001), and to 95.0% for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza and 94.7% for avian influenza (p < 0.001 for both versus seasonal influenza). Anticipated compliance did not differ for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and avian influenza (p = 0.815). Age and sex were both associated with anticipated compliance in the setting of seasonal influenza and the common cold. Notably, 27.1% of health and community service workers would not comply with physician advice to stay home for seasonal influenza. Conclusions Ninety-five percent of people report they would comply with a physicians' advice to stay home for seven days if they are diagnosed with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 or avian influenza, but only 71% can be expected to comply in the setting of seasonal influenza and fewer still can be expected to comply if they are diagnosed with a common cold. Sub-populations that might be worthwhile targets for public health messages aimed at increasing the rate of self-imposed isolation for seasonal influenza include males, younger people, and healthcare workers. PMID:20233450

Self-reported anticipated compliance with physician advice to stay home during pandemic (H1N1) 2009: results from the 2009 Queensland Social Survey.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence H; Aitken, Peter; Leggat, Peter A; Speare, Richard

2010-03-16

One strategy available to public health officials during a pandemic is physician recommendations for isolation of infected individuals. This study was undertaken during the height of the Australian pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak to measure self-reported willingness to comply with physician recommendations to stay home for seven days, and to compare responses for the current strain of pandemic influenza, avian influenza, seasonal influenza, and the common cold. Data were collected as part of the Queensland Social Survey (QSS) 2009, which consisted of a standardized introduction, 37 demographic questions, and research questions incorporated through a cost-sharing arrangement. Four questions related to respondents' anticipated compliance with a physician's advice to stay home if they had a common cold, seasonal influenza, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza or avian influenza were incorporated into QSS 2009, with responses recorded using a balanced Likert scale ranging from "very unlikely" to "very likely." Discordance between responses for different diseases was analysed using McNemar's test. Associations between demographic variables and anticipated compliance were analysed using Pearson's chi-square or chi-square for linear-by-linear association, and confirmed using multivariate logistic regression; p < 0.05 was used to establish statistical significance. Self-reported anticipated compliance increased from 59.9% for the common cold to 71.3% for seasonal influenza (p < .001), and to 95.0% for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza and 94.7% for avian influenza (p < 0.001 for both versus seasonal influenza). Anticipated compliance did not differ for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and avian influenza (p = 0.815). Age and sex were both associated with anticipated compliance in the setting of seasonal influenza and the common cold. Notably, 27.1% of health and community service workers would not comply with physician advice to stay home for seasonal influenza. Ninety-five percent of people report they would comply with a physicians' advice to stay home for seven days if they are diagnosed with pandemic (H1N1) 2009 or avian influenza, but only 71% can be expected to comply in the setting of seasonal influenza and fewer still can be expected to comply if they are diagnosed with a common cold. Sub-populations that might be worthwhile targets for public health messages aimed at increasing the rate of self-imposed isolation for seasonal influenza include males, younger people, and healthcare workers.

Pandemic influenza and major disease outbreak preparedness in US emergency departments: a selected survey of emergency health professionals.

PubMed

Morton, Melinda J; Hsu, Edbert B; Shah, Sneha H; Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; Kirsch, Thomas D

2011-01-01

To assess the level of pandemic preparedness at emergency departments (EDs) around the country and to better understand current barriers to preparedness in the United States represented by health professionals in the American College of Emergency Physician (ACEP) Disaster Medicine Section (DMS). METHODS, DESIGN, and A cross-sectional survey of ACEP DMS members was performed. A total of 300 members were surveyed both via e-mail and with paper surveys during the 2009 ACEP Scientific Assembly DMS Meeting. An optional comments section was included for section members'perspectives on barriers to preparedness. A 15-item pandemic preparedness score was calculated for each respondent based on key preparedness indicators as defined by the authors. Results were analyzed with descriptive statistics, Chi2 analysis, Cochran-Armitage trend test, and analysis of variance. Free text comments were coded and subjected to frequency-based analysis. A total of 92 DMS members completed the survey with a response rate of31 percent. Although 85 percent of those surveyed indicated that their hospital had a plan for pandemic influenza response and other infectious disease threats, only 68 percent indicated that their ED had a plan, and 52 percent indicated that their hospital or ED had conducted disaster preparedness drills. Only 57 percent indicated that there was a plan to augment ED staff in the event of a staffing shortage, and 63 percent indicated that there were adequate supplies of personal protective equipment. While 63 percent of respondents indicated that their ED had a plan for distribution of vaccines and antivirals, only 32 percent ofEDs had a plan for allocation of ventilators. A total of 42 percent of respondents felt that their ED was prepared in the event of a pandemic influenza or other disease outbreak, and only 35 percent felt that their hospital was prepared. The average pandemic preparedness score among respondents was 8.30 of a total of 15. Larger EDs were more likely to have a higher preparedness score (p=0.03) and more likely to have a pandemic preparedness plan (p=0.037). Some major barriers to preparedness cited by section members included lack of local administration support, challenges in funding, need for dedicated disaster preparedness personnel, staffing shortages, and a lack of communication among disaster response agencies, particularly at the federal level. There appear to be significant gaps in pandemic influenza and other infectious disease outbreak planning among the hospitals where ACEP DMS members work. This may reflect a broader underlying inadequacy of preparedness measures.

The Spanish influenza pandemic in occidental Europe (1918–1920) and victim age

PubMed Central

Erkoreka, Anton

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Erkoreka A. (2010) The Spanish influenza pandemic in occidental Europe (1918–1920) and victim age. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(2), 81–89. Background  Studies of the Spanish Influenza pandemic (1918–1920) provide interesting information that may improve our preparation for present and future influenza pandemic threats. Methods  We studied archives from France, Italy, Spain and Portugal, obtaining high‐quality data that allowed us to calculate mortality rates associated with the Spanish flu and to characterize the proportional distribution of influenza deaths by age in the capital cities of these countries. Results  French and American troops who fought in the First World War began to be affected from April 1918 onwards by a benign influenza epidemic, which hardly caused any deaths. The first occidental European country in which the pandemic spread to large sectors of the population, causing serious mortality, was Spain. The associated influenza provoked in Madrid a mortality rate of 1·31 per 1000 inhabitants between May and June (1918). In the following months of June and July, the epidemic spread to Portugal, but did not reach the Pyrenees. In September 1918, the influenza pandemic spread with tremendous virulence, presenting itself simultaneously during the month of October in South Western European countries. In Madrid, the 1918 excess mortality due in large part to the influenza pandemic is estimated at 5·27 per 1000. In Paris, the 1918 mortality rate provoked by the influenza and pathologies of the respiratory system was 6·08 per 1000. In South Western European countries, mortality rates oscillated between 10·6 and 12·1 per 1000 inhabitants. A study of the age distribution of deaths due to influenza between 1916 and 1921 reveals that the Spanish influenza principally affected men and women between 15 and 44 years of age. Deaths associated with the seasonal influenza of 1916, 1917 and 1921 represented 19·7%, 12·5% and 21·0% of all deaths respectively, whereas during the rawest moments of the Spanish influenza, in 1918, the proportion of deaths due to flu for those aged between 15 and 44 years of age reached 68·2% in Paris and 66·3% in Madrid. Conclusion  Victim age is an important criterion that can be used to evaluate the phase and evolution of pandemic influenza. The Spanish Influenza affected particularly the 25‐ to 34‐year‐old and 15‐ to 24‐year‐old age groups. PMID:20167048

A novel vaccination strategy mediating the induction of lung-resident memory CD8 T cells confers heterosubtypic immunity against future pandemic influenza virus

PubMed Central

Lee, Yu-Na; Lee, Young-Tae; Kim, Min-Chul; Gewirtz, Andrew T.; Kang, Sang-Moo

2016-01-01

The currently used vaccine strategy to combat influenza A virus (IAV) aims to provide highly specific immunity to circulating seasonal IAV strains. However, the outbreak of 2009 influenza pandemic highlights the danger in this strategy. Here, we tested the hypothesis that universal vaccination that offers broader but weaker protection would result in cross protective T-cell responses after primary IAV infection, which would subsequently provide protective immunity against future pandemic strains. Specifically, we used tandem repeat M2e epitopes on virus-like particles (M2e5x VLP) that induced heterosubtypic immunity by eliciting antibodies to a conserved M2e epitope. M2e5x VLP was found to be superior to strain-specific current split vaccine in conferring heterosubtypic cross protection and in equipping the host with cross-protective lung-resident nucleoprotein-specific memory CD8+ T cell responses to a subsequent secondary infection with a new pandemic potential strain. Immune correlates for subsequent heterosubtypic immunity by M2e5x VLP vaccination were found to be virus-specific CD8+ T cells secreting IFN-γ and expressing lung-resident memory phenotypic markers CD69+ and CD103+ as well as M2e antibodies. Hence, vaccination with M2e5x VLP may be developable as a new strategy to combat future pandemic outbreaks. PMID:26864033

A new group of cosmopolitan bacteriophages induce a carrier state in the pandemic strain of Vibrio parahaemolyticus.

PubMed

Bastías, Roberto; Higuera, Gastón; Sierralta, Walter; Espejo, Romilio T

2010-04-01

A clonal population of pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus O3 : K6 serovar has spread in coastal waters, causing outbreaks worldwide since 1996. Bacteriophage infection is one of the main factors affecting bacterial strain concentration in the ocean. We studied the occurrence and properties of phages infecting this V. parahaemolyticus pandemic strain in coastal waters. Analysing 143 samples, phages were found in 13. All isolates clustered in a closely related group of podophages with at least 90% nucleotide sequence identity in three essential genes, despite distant geographical origins. These bacteriophages were able to multiply on the V. parahaemolyticus pandemic strain, but the impact on host concentration and subsequent growth was negligible. Infected bacteria continued producing the phage but were not lysogenized. The phage genome of prototype strain VP93 is 43 931 nucleotides and contains 337 bp direct terminal repeats at both ends. VP93 is the first non-Pseudomonas phage related to the PhiKMV-like subgroup of the T7 supergroup. The lack of a major effect on host growth suggests that these phages exert little control on the propagation of the pandemic strain in the environment. This form of phage growth can be modelled if phage-sensitive and -resistant cells that convert to each other with a high frequency are present in clonal cultures of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus.

Law, ethics and pandemic preparedness: the importance of cross-jurisdictional and cross-cultural perspectives.

PubMed

Bennett, Belinda; Carney, Terry

2010-04-01

To explore social equity, health planning, regulatory and ethical dilemmas in responding to a pandemic influenza (H5N1) outbreak, and the adequacy of protocols and standards such as the International Health Regulations (2005). This paper analyses the role of legal and ethical considerations for pandemic preparedness, including an exploration of the relevance of cross-jurisdictional and cross-cultural perspectives in assessing the validity of goals for harmonisation of laws and policies both within and between nations. Australian and international experience is reviewed in various areas, including distribution of vaccines during a pandemic, the distribution of authority between national and local levels of government, and global and regional equity issues for poorer countries. This paper finds that questions such as those of distributional justice (resource allocation) and regulatory frameworks raise important issues about the cultural and ethical acceptability of planning measures. Serious doubt is cast on a 'one size fits all' approach to international planning for managing a pandemic. It is concluded that a more nuanced approach than that contained in international guidelines may be required if an effective response is to be constructed internationally. The paper commends the wisdom of reliance on 'soft law', international guidance that leaves plenty of room for each nation to construct its response in conformity with its own cultural and value requirements. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.