The integrated information architecture: a pilot study approach to leveraging logistics management with regard to influenza preparedness.

PubMed

Lin, Chinho; Lin, Chun-Mei; Yen, David C; Wu, Wu-Han

2012-02-01

Pandemic influenza is considered catastrophic to global health, with severe economic and social effects. Consequently, a strategy for the rapid deployment of essential medical supplies used for the prevention of influenza transmission and to alleviate public panic caused by the expected shortage of such supplies needs to be developed. Therefore, we employ integrated information concepts to develop a simulated influenza medical material supply system to facilitate a rapid response to such a crisis. Various scenarios are analyzed to estimate the appropriate inventory policy needed under different pandemic influenza outbreaks, and to establish a mechanism to evaluate the necessary stockpiles of medications and other requirements in the different phases of the pandemic. This study constructed a web-based decision support system framework prototype that displayed transparent data related to medical stockpiles in each district and integrated expert opinion about the best distribution of these supplies in the influenza pandemic scenarios. A data collection system was also designed to gather information through a daily VPN transmitted into one central repository for reporting and distribution purposes. This study provides timely and transparent medical supplies distribution information that can help decision makers to make the appropriate decisions under different pandemic influenza outbreaks, and also attempts to establish a mechanism of evaluating the stockpiles and requirements in the different phases of the pandemic.

Pandemic influenza computer model (no soundtrack)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Los Alamos National Lab

2009-05-01

Simulation of a pandemic flu outbreak in the continental United States, initially introduced by the arrival of 10 infected individuals in Los Angeles. ----------The spatiotemporal dynamics of the prevalence (number of symptomatic cases at any point in

Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. Methods We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods, respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. Conclusions While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical. PMID:21106071

Large-scale Individual-based Models of Pandemic Influenza Mitigation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadau, Kai; Germann, Timothy; Longini, Ira; Macken, Catherine

2007-03-01

We have developed a large-scale stochastic simulation model to investigate the spread of a pandemic strain of influenza virus through the U.S. population of 281 million people, to assess the likely effectiveness of various potential intervention strategies including antiviral agents, vaccines, and modified social mobility (including school closure and travel restrictions) [1]. The heterogeneous population structure and mobility is based on available Census and Department of Transportation data where available. Our simulations demonstrate that, in a highly mobile population, restricting travel after an outbreak is detected is likely to delay slightly the time course of the outbreak without impacting the eventual number ill. For large basic reproductive numbers R0, we predict that multiple strategies in combination (involving both social and medical interventions) will be required to achieve a substantial reduction in illness rates. [1] T. C. Germann, K. Kadau, I. M. Longini, and C. A. Macken, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 103, 5935-5940 (2006).

A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting

PubMed Central

Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard J.; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S.; Marathe, Madhav V.

2013-01-01

Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area. PMID:23826222

A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting.

PubMed

Nsoesie, Elaine O; Beckman, Richard J; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S; Marathe, Madhav V

2013-01-01

Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area.

The Pandemic Influenza Policy Model: A Planning Tool for Military Public Health Officials

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Containment . Geneva , WHO , 2006. 7. Luke CJ , Subbarao K : Vaccines for pandemic infl uenza . Emerg Infect Dis 2006 ; 12 (1) : 66 – 72...Report (SAR) 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 9 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT unclassified b . ABSTRACT unclassified c. THIS PAGE unclassified...simulations . Simulation 2005 ; 81 (10) : 671 – 99 . 19. Pourbohloul B , Meyers LA , Skowronski DM , Krajden M , Patrick DM , Brunham RC

Approximate Bayesian algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number in an influenza pandemic using arrival times of imported cases.

PubMed

Chong, Ka Chun; Zee, Benny Chung Ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian

2018-04-10

In an influenza pandemic, arrival times of cases are a proxy of the epidemic size and disease transmissibility. Because of intense surveillance of travelers from infected countries, detection is more rapid and complete than on local surveillance. Travel information can provide a more reliable estimation of transmission parameters. We developed an Approximate Bayesian Computation algorithm to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) in addition to the reporting rate and unobserved epidemic start time, utilizing travel, and routine surveillance data in an influenza pandemic. A simulation was conducted to assess the sampling uncertainty. The estimation approach was further applied to the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico as a case study. In the simulations, we showed that the estimation approach was valid and reliable in different simulation settings. We also found estimates of R 0 and the reporting rate to be 1.37 (95% Credible Interval [CI]: 1.26-1.42) and 4.9% (95% CI: 0.1%-18%), respectively, in the 2009 influenza pandemic in Mexico, which were robust to variations in the fixed parameters. The estimated R 0 was consistent with that in the literature. This method is useful for officials to obtain reliable estimates of disease transmissibility for strategic planning. We suggest that improvements to the flow of reporting for confirmed cases among patients arriving at different countries are required. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Lean response to improve pandemic influenza surge in public health laboratories.

PubMed

Isaac-Renton, Judith L; Chang, Yin; Prystajecky, Natalie; Petric, Martin; Mak, Annie; Abbott, Brendan; Paris, Benjamin; Decker, K C; Pittenger, Lauren; Guercio, Steven; Stott, Jeff; Miller, Joseph D

2012-01-01

A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus detected in April 2009 rapidly spread around the world. North American provincial and state laboratories have well-defined roles and responsibilities, including providing accurate, timely test results for patients and information for regional public health and other decision makers. We used the multidisciplinary response and rapid implementation of process changes based on Lean methods at the provincial public health laboratory in British Columbia, Canada, to improve laboratory surge capacity in the 2009 influenza pandemic. Observed and computer simulating evaluation results from rapid processes changes showed that use of Lean tools successfully expanded surge capacity, which enabled response to the 10-fold increase in testing demands.

A neighborhood susceptibility index for planning of local physical interventions in response to pandemic influenza outbreaks

PubMed Central

Timpka, Toomas; Eriksson, Henrik; Strömgren, Magnus; Eriksson, Olle; Ekberg, Joakim; Grimvall, Anders; Nyce, James; Gursky, Elin; Holm, Einar

2010-01-01

The global spread of a novel A (H1N1) influenza virus in 2009 has highlighted the possibility of a devastating pandemic similar to the ‘Spanish flu’ of 1917–1918. Responding to such pandemics requires careful planning for the early phases where there is no availability of pandemic vaccine. We set out to compute a Neighborhood Influenza Susceptibility Index (NISI) describing the vulnerability of local communities of different geo-socio-physical structure to a pandemic influenza outbreak. We used a spatially explicit geo-physical model of Linköping municipality (pop. 136,240) in Sweden, and employed an ontology-modeling tool to define simulation models and transmission settings. We found considerable differences in NISI between neighborhoods corresponding to primary care areas with regard to early progress of the outbreak, as well as in terms of the total accumulated share of infected residents counted after the outbreak. The NISI can be used in local preparations of physical response measures during pandemics. PMID:21347087

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza, National and Community Measures

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

The World Health Organization's recommended pandemic influenza interventions, based on limited data, vary by transmission pattern, pandemic phase, and illness severity and extent. In the pandemic alert period, recommendations include isolation of patients and quarantine of contacts, accompanied by antiviral therapy. During the pandemic period, the focus shifts to delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. Ill persons should remain home when they first become symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical. If the pandemic is severe, social distancing measures such as school closures should be considered. Nonessential domestic travel to affected areas should be deferred. Hand and respiratory hygiene should be routine; mask use should be based on setting and risk, and contaminated household surfaces should be disinfected. Additional research and field assessments during pandemics are essential to update recommendations. Legal authority and procedures for implementing interventions should be understood in advance and should respect cultural differences and human rights. PMID:16494723

Responses to the global HIV and AIDS pandemic: a study of the role of faith-based organisations in Lesotho.

PubMed

Olowu, Dejo

2015-01-01

This article attempts to establish the key contribution by people of faith to the global HIV pandemic response, using Lesotho as a case study. Particular focus is paid to the work of selected religious organisations in Lesotho in this context, assessing their capacities to coordinate an effective HIV and AIDS action at the grassroots levels through education, health care, development, and social service activities. Empirical evaluations and findings regarding the level and quality of faith-based engagement in this field establish the basic premise of this article, namely, that faith-based organisations are contributing energy, expertise, and experience in order to achieve the commitment of the global commitment to advance universal access to HIV prevention, treatment, and support. Although the article is particularly focused on the Lesotho context, its tremendous implications for simulated studies and approaches across Sub-Saharan Africa are accentuated.

Estimating disease burden of a potential A(H7N9) pandemic influenza outbreak in the United States.

PubMed

Silva, Walter; Das, Tapas K; Izurieta, Ricardo

2017-11-25

Since spring 2013, periodic emergence of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China has heightened the concern for a possible pandemic outbreak among humans, though it is believed that the virus is not yet human-to-human transmittable. Till June 2017, A(H7N9) has resulted in 1533 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infections causing 592 deaths. The aim of this paper is to present disease burden estimates (measured by infection attack rates (IAR) and number of deaths) in the event of a possible pandemic outbreak caused by human-to-human transmission capability acquired by A(H7N9) virus. Even though such a pandemic will likely spread worldwide, our focus in this paper is to estimate the impact on the United States alone. The method first uses a data clustering technique to divide 50 states in the U.S. into a small number of clusters. Thereafter, for a few selected states in each cluster, the method employs an agent-based (AB) model to simulate human A(H7N9) influenza pandemic outbreaks. The model uses demographic and epidemiological data. A few selected non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures are applied to mitigate the outbreaks. Disease burden for the U.S. is estimated by combining results from the clusters applying a method used in stratified sampling. Two possible pandemic scenarios with R 0  = 1.5 and 1.8 are examined. Infection attack rates with 95% C.I. (Confidence Interval) for R 0  = 1.5 and 1.8 are estimated to be 18.78% (17.3-20.27) and 25.05% (23.11-26.99), respectively. The corresponding number of deaths (95% C.I.), per 100,000, are 7252.3 (6598.45-7907.33) and 9670.99 (8953.66-10,389.95). The results reflect a possible worst-case scenario where the outbreak extends over all states of the U.S. and antivirals and vaccines are not administered. Our disease burden estimations are also likely to be somewhat high due to the fact that only dense urban regions covering approximately 3% of the geographic area and 81% of the population are used for simulating sample outbreaks. Outcomes from these simulations are extrapolated over the remaining 19% of the population spread sparsely over 97% of the area. Furthermore, the full extent of possible NPIs, if deployed, could also have lowered the disease burden estimates.

Pandemic policy and planning considerations for universities: findings from a tabletop exercise.

PubMed

Beaton, Randal; Stergachis, Andy; Thompson, Jack; Osaki, Carl; Johnson, Clark; Charvat, Steven J; Marsden-Haug, Nicola

2007-12-01

The potential for a novel influenza virus to cause a pandemic represents a significant threat to global health. Planning for pandemic flu, as compared to planning for other types of hazards, presents some unique challenges to businesses, communities, and education institutions. To identify and address the challenges that may be faced by major metropolitan universities during a flu pandemic, a tabletop exercise was developed, offered, and evaluated. Its purpose was to assess existing University of Washington (UW) plans and policies for responding to an influenza pandemic. On May 31, 2006, more than 50 participants, including UW administrators and unit leaders and a number of key external partners, participated in a tabletop exercise designed to simulate all phases of an influenza pandemic. This exercise revealed existing gaps in university pandemic influenza plans and policies, including issues related to isolation and quarantine, continuity of operations, disaster mental health services, integration of volunteers into a disaster response, tracking travel of university students and personnel, communication problems, and ways to meet the needs of resident and foreign students and faculty during an outbreak. Policy and planning recommendations are offered that address each of these challenges faced by UW as well as other major research universities and colleges.

Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for pandemic influenza: an evaluation of the evidence base.

PubMed

Aledort, Julia E; Lurie, Nicole; Wasserman, Jeffrey; Bozzette, Samuel A

2007-08-15

In an influenza pandemic, the benefit of vaccines and antiviral medications will be constrained by limitations on supplies and effectiveness. Non-pharmaceutical public health interventions will therefore be vital in curtailing disease spread. However, the most comprehensive assessments of the literature to date recognize the generally poor quality of evidence on which to base non-pharmaceutical pandemic planning decisions. In light of the need to prepare for a possible pandemic despite concerns about the poor quality of the literature, combining available evidence with expert opinion about the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pandemic influenza may lead to a more informed and widely accepted set of recommendations. We evaluated the evidence base for non-pharmaceutical public health interventions. Then, based on the collective evidence, we identified a set of recommendations for and against interventions that are specific to both the setting in which an intervention may be used and the pandemic phase, and which can be used by policymakers to prepare for a pandemic until scientific evidence can definitively respond to planners' needs. Building on reviews of past pandemics and recent historical inquiries, we evaluated the relative merits of non-pharmaceutical interventions by combining available evidence from the literature with qualitative and quantitative expert opinion. Specifically, we reviewed the recent scientific literature regarding the prevention of human-to-human transmission of pandemic influenza, convened a meeting of experts from multiple disciplines, and elicited expert recommendation about the use of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions in a variety of settings (healthcare facilities; community-based institutions; private households) and pandemic phases (no pandemic; no US pandemic; early localized US pandemic; advanced US pandemic). The literature contained a dearth of evidence on the efficacy or effectiveness of most non-pharmaceutical interventions for influenza. In an effort to inform decision-making in the absence of strong scientific evidence, the experts ultimately endorsed hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette, surveillance and case reporting, and rapid viral diagnosis in all settings and during all pandemic phases. They also encouraged patient and provider use of masks and other personal protective equipment as well as voluntary self-isolation of patients during all pandemic phases. Other non-pharmaceutical interventions including mask-use and other personal protective equipment for the general public, school and workplace closures early in an epidemic, and mandatory travel restrictions were rejected as likely to be ineffective, infeasible, or unacceptable to the public. The demand for scientific evidence on non-pharmaceutical public health interventions for influenza is pervasive, and present policy recommendations must rely heavily on expert judgment. In the absence of a definitive science base, our assessment of the evidence identified areas for further investigation as well as non-pharmaceutical public health interventions that experts believe are likely to be beneficial, feasible and widely acceptable in an influenza pandemic.

Use of Lean Response to Improve Pandemic Influenza Surge in Public Health Laboratories

PubMed Central

Chang, Yin; Prystajecky, Natalie; Petric, Martin; Mak, Annie; Abbott, Brendan; Paris, Benjamin; Decker, K.C.; Pittenger, Lauren; Guercio, Steven; Stott, Jeff; Miller, Joseph D.

2012-01-01

A novel influenza A (H1N1) virus detected in April 2009 rapidly spread around the world. North American provincial and state laboratories have well-defined roles and responsibilities, including providing accurate, timely test results for patients and information for regional public health and other decision makers. We used the multidisciplinary response and rapid implementation of process changes based on Lean methods at the provincial public health laboratory in British Columbia, Canada, to improve laboratory surge capacity in the 2009 influenza pandemic. Observed and computer simulating evaluation results from rapid processes changes showed that use of Lean tools successfully expanded surge capacity, which enabled response to the 10-fold increase in testing demands. PMID:22257385

Economic analysis of pandemic influenza mitigation strategies for five pandemic severity categories

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The threat of emergence of a human-to-human transmissible strain of highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) is very real, and is reinforced by recent results showing that genetically modified A(H5N1) may be readily transmitted between ferrets. Public health authorities are hesitant in introducing social distancing interventions due to societal disruption and productivity losses. This study estimates the effectiveness and total cost (from a societal perspective, with a lifespan time horizon) of a comprehensive range of social distancing and antiviral drug strategies, under a range of pandemic severity categories. Methods An economic analysis was conducted using a simulation model of a community of ~30,000 in Australia. Data from the 2009 pandemic was used to derive relationships between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and hospitalization rates for each of five pandemic severity categories, with CFR ranging from 0.1% to 2.5%. Results For a pandemic with basic reproduction number R0 = 1.8, adopting no interventions resulted in total costs ranging from $441 per person for a pandemic at category 1 (CFR 0.1%) to $8,550 per person at category 5 (CFR 2.5%). For severe pandemics of category 3 (CFR 0.75%) and greater, a strategy combining antiviral treatment and prophylaxis, extended school closure and community contact reduction resulted in the lowest total cost of any strategy, costing $1,584 per person at category 5. This strategy was highly effective, reducing the attack rate to 5%. With low severity pandemics costs are dominated by productivity losses due to illness and social distancing interventions, whereas higher severity pandemic costs are dominated by healthcare costs and costs arising from productivity losses due to death. Conclusions For pandemics in high severity categories the strategies with the lowest total cost to society involve rigorous, sustained social distancing, which are considered unacceptable for low severity pandemics due to societal disruption and cost. PMID:23496898

Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic - The model behind the documentary.

PubMed

Klepac, Petra; Kissler, Stephen; Gog, Julia

2018-03-21

To mark the centenary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the broadcasting network BBC have put together a 75-min documentary called 'Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic'. Central to the documentary is a nationwide citizen science experiment, during which volunteers in the United Kingdom could download and use a custom mobile phone app called BBC Pandemic, and contribute their movement and contact data for a day. As the 'maths team', we were asked to use the data from the app to build and run a model of how a pandemic would spread in the UK. The headline results are presented in the TV programme. Here, we document in detail how the model works, and how we shaped it according the incredibly rich data coming from the BBC Pandemic app. We have barely scratched the depth of the volunteer data available from the app. The work presented in this article had the sole purpose of generating a single detailed simulation of a pandemic influenza-like outbreak in the UK. When the BBC Pandemic app has completed its collection period, the vast dataset will be made available to the scientific community (expected early 2019). It will take much more time and input from a broad range of researchers to fully exploit all that this dataset has to offer. But here at least we were able to harness some of the power of the BBC Pandemic data to contribute something which we hope will capture the interest and engagement of a broad audience. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of subway travel in an influenza epidemic: a New York City simulation.

PubMed

Cooley, Philip; Brown, Shawn; Cajka, James; Chasteen, Bernadette; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Grefenstette, John; Hollingsworth, Craig R; Lee, Bruce Y; Levine, Burton; Wheaton, William D; Wagener, Diane K

2011-10-01

The interactions of people using public transportation in large metropolitan areas may help spread an influenza epidemic. An agent-based model computer simulation of New York City's (NYC's) five boroughs was developed that incorporated subway ridership into a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered disease model framework. The model contains a total of 7,847,465 virtual people. Each person resides in one of the five boroughs of NYC and has a set of socio-demographic characteristics and daily behaviors that include age, sex, employment status, income, occupation, and household location and membership. The model simulates the interactions of subway riders with their workplaces, schools, households, and community activities. It was calibrated using historical data from the 1957-1958 influenza pandemics and from NYC travel surveys. The surveys were necessary to enable inclusion of subway riders into the model. The model results estimate that if influenza did occur in NYC with the characteristics of the 1957-1958 pandemic, 4% of transmissions would occur on the subway. This suggests that interventions targeted at subway riders would be relatively ineffective in containing the epidemic. A number of hypothetical examples demonstrate this feature. This information could prove useful to public health officials planning responses to epidemics.

Interdisciplinary pharmacometrics linking oseltamivir pharmacology, influenza epidemiology and health economics to inform antiviral use in pandemics.

PubMed

Kamal, Mohamed A; Smith, Patrick F; Chaiyakunapruk, Nathorn; Wu, David B C; Pratoomsoot, Chayanin; Lee, Kenneth K C; Chong, Huey Yi; Nelson, Richard E; Nieforth, Keith; Dall, Georgina; Toovey, Stephen; Kong, David C M; Kamauu, Aaron; Kirkpatrick, Carl M; Rayner, Craig R

2017-07-01

A modular interdisciplinary platform was developed to investigate the economic impact of oseltamivir treatment by dosage regimen under simulated influenza pandemic scenarios. The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate daily area under the concentration-time curve at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg twice daily regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data. The epidemiological module comprised a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to which drug effect on the basic reproductive number (R 0 ), a measure of transmissibility, was linked by reduction of viral shedding duration. The number of infected patients per population of 100 000 susceptible individuals was simulated for a series of pandemic scenarios, varying oseltamivir dose, R 0 (1.9 vs. 2.7), and drug uptake (25%, 50%, and 80%). The number of infected patients for each scenario was entered into the health economics module, a decision analytic model populated with branch probabilities, disease utility, costs of hospitalized patients developing complications, and case-fatality rates. Change in quality-adjusted life years was determined relative to base case. Oseltamivir 75 mg relative to no treatment reduced the median number of infected patients, increased change in quality-adjusted life years by deaths averted, and was cost-saving under all scenarios; 150 mg relative to 75 mg was not cost effective in low transmissibility scenarios but was cost saving in high transmissibility scenarios. This methodological study demonstrates proof of concept that the disciplines of pharmacology, disease epidemiology and health economics can be linked in a single quantitative framework. © 2017 The British Pharmacological Society.

Attending to social vulnerability when rationing pandemic resources.

PubMed

Vawter, Dorothy E; Garrett, J Eline; Gervais, Karen G; Prehn, Angela Witt; DeBruin, Debra A

2011-01-01

Pandemic plans are increasingly attending to groups experiencing health disparities and other social vulnerabilities. Although some pandemic guidance is silent on the issue, guidance that attends to socially vulnerable groups ranges widely, some procedural (often calling for public engagement), and some substantive. Public engagement objectives vary from merely educational to seeking reflective input into the ethical commitments that should guide pandemic planning and response. Some plans that concern rationing during a severe pandemic recommend ways to protect socially vulnerable groups without prioritizing access to scarce resources based on social vulnerability per se. The Minnesota Pandemic Ethics Project (MPEP), a public engagement project on rationing scarce health resources during a severe influenza pandemic, agrees and recommends an integrated set of ways to attend to the needs of socially vulnerable people and avoid exacerbation of health disparities during a severe influenza pandemic. Among other things, MPEP recommends: 1. Engaging socially vulnerable populations to clarify unique needs and effective strategies; 2. Engaging socially vulnerable populations to elicit ethical values and perspectives on rationing; 3. Rejecting rationing based on race, socioeconomic class, citizenship, quality of life, length of life-extension and first-come, first-served; 4. Prioritizing those in the general population for access to resources based on combinations of risk (of death or severe complications from influenza, exposure to influenza, transmitting influenza to vulnerable groups) and the likelihood of responding well to the resource in question. 5. Protecting critical infrastructures on which vulnerable populations and the general public rely; 6. Identifying and removing access barriers during pandemic planning and response; and 7. Collecting and promptly analyzing data during the pandemic to identify groups at disproportionate risk of influenza-related mortality and serious morbidity and to optimize the distribution of resources.

Was mandatory quarantine necessary in China for controlling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic?

PubMed

Li, Xinhai; Geng, Wenjun; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian

2013-09-30

The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity.

Was Mandatory Quarantine Necessary in China for Controlling the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic?

PubMed Central

Li, Xinhai; Geng, Wenjun; Tian, Huidong; Lai, Dejian

2013-01-01

The Chinese government enforced mandatory quarantine for 60 days (from 10 May to 8 July 2009) as a preventative strategy to control the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Such a prevention strategy was stricter than other non-pharmaceutical interventions that were carried out in many other countries. We evaluated the effectiveness of the mandatory quarantine and provide suggestions for interventions against possible future influenza pandemics. We selected one city, Beijing, as the analysis target. We reviewed the epidemiologic dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the implementation of quarantine measures in Beijing. The infectious population was simulated under two scenarios (quarantined and not quarantined) using a deterministic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model. The basic reproduction number R0 was adjusted to match the epidemic wave in Beijing. We found that mandatory quarantine served to postpone the spread of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Beijing by one and a half months. If mandatory quarantine was not enforced in Beijing, the infectious population could have reached 1,553 by 21 October, i.e., 5.6 times higher than the observed number. When the cost of quarantine is taken into account, mandatory quarantine was not an economically effective intervention approach against the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We suggest adopting mitigation methods for an influenza pandemic with low mortality and morbidity. PMID:24084677

Novel framework for assessing epidemiologic effects of influenza epidemics and pandemics.

PubMed

Reed, Carrie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C; Jernigan, Daniel B

2013-01-01

The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making.

Novel Framework for Assessing Epidemiologic Effects of Influenza Epidemics and Pandemics

PubMed Central

Biggerstaff, Matthew; Finelli, Lyn; Koonin, Lisa M.; Beauvais, Denise; Uzicanin, Amra; Plummer, Andrew; Bresee, Joe; Redd, Stephen C.; Jernigan, Daniel B.

2013-01-01

The effects of influenza on a population are attributable to the clinical severity of illness and the number of persons infected, which can vary greatly between seasons or pandemics. To create a systematic framework for assessing the public health effects of an emerging pandemic, we reviewed data from past influenza seasons and pandemics to characterize severity and transmissibility (based on ranges of these measures in the United States) and outlined a formal assessment of the potential effects of a novel virus. The assessment was divided into 2 periods. Because early in a pandemic, measurement of severity and transmissibility is uncertain, we used a broad dichotomous scale in the initial assessment to divide the range of historic values. In the refined assessment, as more data became available, we categorized those values more precisely. By organizing and prioritizing data collection, this approach may inform an evidence-based assessment of pandemic effects and guide decision making. PMID:23260039

Mechanism of 150-cavity formation in influenza neuraminidase

PubMed Central

Amaro, Rommie E.; Swift, Robert V.; Votapka, Lane; Li, Wilfred W.; Walker, Ross C.; Bush, Robin M.

2011-01-01

The recently discovered 150-cavity in the active site of group-1 influenza A neuraminidase (NA) proteins provides a target for rational structure-based drug development to counter the increasing frequency of antiviral resistance in influenza. Surprisingly, the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus (09N1) neuramidase was crystalized without the 150-cavity characteristic of group-1 NAs. Here we demonstrate, through a total sum of 1.6 μs of biophysical simulations, that 09N1 NA exists in solution preferentially with an open 150-cavity. Comparison with simulations using avian N1, human N2 and 09N1 with a I149V mutation and an extensive bioinformatics analysis suggests that the conservation of a key salt bridge is crucial in the stabilization of the 150-cavity across both subtypes. This result provides an atomic-level structural understanding of the recent finding that antiviral compounds designed to take advantage of contacts in the 150-cavity can inactivate both 2009 H1N1 pandemic and avian H5N1 viruses. PMID:21750542

Cost-utility analysis of antiviral use under pandemic influenza using a novel approach - linking pharmacology, epidemiology and heath economics.

PubMed

Wu, D B C; Chaiyakunapruk, N; Pratoomsoot, C; Lee, K K C; Chong, H Y; Nelson, R E; Smith, P F; Kirkpatrick, C M; Kamal, M A; Nieforth, K; Dall, G; Toovey, S; Kong, D C M; Kamauu, A; Rayner, C R

2018-03-01

Simulation models are used widely in pharmacology, epidemiology and health economics (HEs). However, there have been no attempts to incorporate models from these disciplines into a single integrated model. Accordingly, we explored this linkage to evaluate the epidemiological and economic impact of oseltamivir dose optimisation in supporting pandemic influenza planning in the USA. An HE decision analytic model was linked to a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) - dynamic transmission model simulating the impact of pandemic influenza with low virulence and low transmissibility and, high virulence and high transmissibility. The cost-utility analysis was from the payer and societal perspectives, comparing oseltamivir 75 and 150 mg twice daily (BID) to no treatment over a 1-year time horizon. Model parameters were derived from published studies. Outcomes were measured as cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the integrated model's robustness. Under both pandemic scenarios, compared to no treatment, the use of oseltamivir 75 or 150 mg BID led to a significant reduction of influenza episodes and influenza-related deaths, translating to substantial savings of QALYs. Overall drug costs were offset by the reduction of both direct and indirect costs, making these two interventions cost-saving from both perspectives. The results were sensitive to the proportion of inpatient presentation at the emergency visit and patients' quality of life. Integrating PK/PD-EPI/HE models is achievable. Whilst further refinement of this novel linkage model to more closely mimic the reality is needed, the current study has generated useful insights to support influenza pandemic planning.

Economics of Employer-Sponsored Workplace Vaccination to Prevent Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Bailey, Rachel R.; Wiringa, Ann E.; Afriyie, Abena; Wateska, Angela R.; Smith, Kenneth J.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2010-01-01

Employers may be loath to fund vaccination programs without understanding the economic consequences. We developed a decision analytic computational simulation model including dynamic transmission elements that determined the cost-benefit of employer-sponsored workplace vaccination from the employer's perspective. Implementing such programs was relatively inexpensive (<$35/vaccinated employee) and, in many cases, cost saving across diverse occupational groups in all seasonal influenza scenarios. Such programs were cost-saving for a 20% serologic attack rate pandemic scenario (−$15 to −$995) per vaccinated employee) and a 30% serologic attack rate pandemic scenario (range −$39 to −$1,494 per vaccinated employee) across all age and major occupational groups. PMID:20620168

Just-in-time training of dental responders in a simulated pandemic immunization response exercise.

PubMed

Colvard, Michael D; Hirst, Jeremy L; Vesper, Benjamin J; DeTella, George E; Tsagalis, Mila P; Roberg, Mary J; Peters, David E; Wallace, Jimmy D; James, James J

2014-06-01

The reauthorization of the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act in 2013 incorporated the dental profession and dental professionals into the federal legislation governing public health response to pandemics and all-hazard situations. Work is now necessary to expand the processes needed to incorporate and train oral health care professionals into pandemic and all-hazard response events. A just-in-time (JIT) training exercise and immunization drill using an ex vivo porcine model system was conducted to demonstrate the rapidity to which dental professionals can respond to a pandemic influenza scenario. Medical history documentation, vaccination procedures, and patient throughput and error rates of 15 dental responders were evaluated by trained nursing staff and emergency response personnel. The average throughput (22.33/hr) and medical error rates (7 of 335; 2.08%) of the dental responders were similar to those found in analogous influenza mass vaccination clinics previously conducted using certified public health nurses. The dental responder immunization drill validated the capacity and capability of dental professionals to function as a valuable immunization resource. The ex vivo porcine model system used for JIT training can serve as a simple and inexpensive training tool to update pandemic responders' immunization techniques and procedures supporting inoculation protocols.

Virus-like particle (VLP)-based vaccines for pandemic influenza

PubMed Central

López-Macías, Constantino

2012-01-01

The influenza pandemic of 2009 demonstrated the inability of the established global capacity for egg-based vaccine production technology to provide sufficient vaccine for the population in a timely fashion. Several alternative technologies for developing influenza vaccines have been proposed, among which non-replicating virus-like particles (VLPs) represent an attractive option because of their safety and immunogenic characteristics. VLP vaccines against pandemic influenza have been developed in tobacco plant cells and in Sf9 insect cells infected with baculovirus that expresses protein genes from pandemic influenza strains. These technologies allow rapid and large-scale production of vaccines (3–12 weeks). The 2009 influenza outbreak provided an opportunity for clinical testing of a pandemic influenza VLP vaccine in the midst of the outbreak at its epicenter in Mexico. An influenza A(H1N1)2009 VLP pandemic vaccine (produced in insect cells) was tested in a phase II clinical trial involving 4,563 healthy adults. Results showed that the vaccine is safe and immunogenic despite high preexisting anti-A(H1N1)2009 antibody titers present in the population. The safety and immunogenicity profile presented by this pandemic VLP vaccine during the outbreak in Mexico suggests that VLP technology is a suitable alternative to current influenza vaccine technologies for producing pandemic and seasonal vaccines. PMID:22330956

Buy now, saved later? The critical impact of time-to-pandemic uncertainty on pandemic cost-effectiveness analyses.

PubMed

Drake, Tom; Chalabi, Zaid; Coker, Richard

2015-02-01

Investment in pandemic preparedness is a long-term gamble, with the return on investment coming at an unknown point in the future. Many countries have chosen to stockpile key resources, and the number of pandemic economic evaluations has risen sharply since 2009. We assess the importance of uncertainty in time-to-pandemic (and associated discounting) in pandemic economic evaluation, a factor frequently neglected in the literature to-date. We use a probability tree model and Monte Carlo parameter sampling to consider the cost effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling in Cambodia under parameter uncertainty. Mean elasticity and mutual information (MI) are used to assess the importance of time-to-pandemic compared with other parameters. We also consider the sensitivity to choice of sampling distribution used to model time-to-pandemic uncertainty. Time-to-pandemic and discount rate are the primary drivers of sensitivity and uncertainty in pandemic cost effectiveness models. Base case cost effectiveness of antiviral stockpiling ranged between is US$112 and US$3599 per DALY averted using historical pandemic intervals for time-to-pandemic. The mean elasticities for time-to-pandemic and discount rate were greater than all other parameters. Similarly, the MI scores for time to pandemic and discount rate were greater than other parameters. Time-to-pandemic and discount rate were key drivers of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results regardless of time-to-pandemic sampling distribution choice. Time-to-pandemic assumptions can "substantially" affect cost-effectiveness results and, in our model, is a greater contributor to uncertainty in cost-effectiveness results than any other parameter. We strongly recommend that cost-effectiveness models include probabilistic analysis of time-to-pandemic uncertainty. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

Avian influenza pandemic preparedness: developing prepandemic and pandemic vaccines against a moving target

PubMed Central

Singh, Neetu; Pandey, Aseem; Mittal, Suresh K.

2010-01-01

The unprecedented global spread of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses within the past ten years and their extreme lethality to poultry and humans has underscored their potential to cause an influenza pandemic. Combating the threat of an impending H5N1 influenza pandemic will require a combination of pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical intervention strategies. The emergence of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 emphasised the unpredictable nature of a pandemic influenza. Undoubtedly, vaccines offer the most viable means to combat a pandemic threat. Current egg-based influenza vaccine manufacturing strategies are unlikely to be able to cater to the huge, rapid global demand because of the anticipated scarcity of embryonated eggs in an avian influenza pandemic and other factors associated with the vaccine production process. Therefore, alternative, egg-independent vaccine manufacturing strategies should be evaluated to supplement the traditional egg-derived influenza vaccine manufacturing. Furthermore, evaluation of dose-sparing strategies that offer protection with a reduced antigen dose will be critical for pandemic influenza preparedness. Development of new antiviral therapeutics and other, nonpharmaceutical intervention strategies will further supplement pandemic preparedness. This review highlights the current status of egg-dependent and egg-independent strategies against an avian influenza pandemic. PMID:20426889

Lessons from pandemic influenza A(H1N1): the research-based vaccine industry's perspective.

PubMed

Abelin, Atika; Colegate, Tony; Gardner, Stephen; Hehme, Norbert; Palache, Abraham

2011-02-01

As A(H1N1) influenza enters the post-pandemic phase, health authorities around the world are reviewing the response to the pandemic. To ensure this process enhances future preparations, it is essential that perspectives are included from all relevant stakeholders, including vaccine manufacturers. This paper outlines the contribution of R&D-based influenza vaccine producers to the pandemic response, and explores lessons that can be learned to improve future preparedness. The emergence of 2009 A(H1N1) influenza led to unprecedented collaboration between global health authorities, scientists and manufacturers, resulting in the most comprehensive pandemic response ever undertaken, with a number of vaccines approved for use three months after the pandemic declaration. This response was only possible because of the extensive preparations undertaken during the last decade. During this period, manufacturers greatly increased influenza vaccine production capacity, and estimates suggest a further doubling of capacity by 2014. Producers also introduced cell-culture technology, while adjuvant and whole virion technologies significantly reduced pandemic vaccine antigen content. This substantially increased pandemic vaccine production capacity, which in July 2009 WHO estimated reached 4.9 billion doses per annum. Manufacturers also worked with health authorities to establish risk management plans for robust vaccine surveillance during the pandemic. Individual producers pledged significant donations of vaccine doses and tiered-pricing approaches for developing country supply. Based on the pandemic experience, a number of improvements would strengthen future preparedness. Technical improvements to rapidly select optimal vaccine viruses, and processes to speed up vaccine standardization, could accelerate and extend vaccine availability. Establishing vaccine supply agreements beforehand would avoid the need for complex discussions during a period of intense time pressure. Enhancing international regulatory co-operation and mutual recognition of approvals could accelerate vaccine supply, while maintaining safety standards. Strengthening communications with the public and healthcare workers using new approaches and new channels could help improve vaccine uptake. Finally, increasing seasonal vaccine coverage will be particularly important to extend and sustain pandemic vaccine production capacity. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The use of mathematical models to inform influenza pandemic preparedness and response

PubMed Central

Wu, Joseph T; Cowling, Benjamin J

2011-01-01

Summary Influenza pandemics have occurred throughout history and were associated with substantial excess mortality and morbidity. Mathematical models of infectious diseases permit quantitative description of epidemic processes based on the underlying biological mechanisms. Mathematical models have been widely used in the past decade to aid pandemic planning by allowing detailed predictions of the speed of spread of an influenza pandemic and the likely effectiveness of alternative control strategies. During the initial waves of the 2009 influenza pandemic, mathematical models were used to track the spread of the virus, predict the time course of the pandemic and assess the likely impact of large-scale vaccination. While mathematical modeling has made substantial contributions to influenza pandemic preparedness, its use as a real-time tool for pandemic control is currently limited by the lack of essential surveillance information such as serologic data. Mathematical modeling provided a useful framework for analyzing and interpreting surveillance data during the 2009 influenza pandemic, for highlighting limitations in existing pandemic surveillance systems, and for guiding how these systems should be strengthened in order to cope with future epidemics of influenza or other emerging infectious diseases. PMID:21727183

Refining the approach to vaccines against influenza A viruses with pandemic potential

PubMed Central

Czako, Rita; Subbarao, Kanta

2015-01-01

Vaccination is the most effective strategy for prevention and control of influenza. Timely production and deployment of seasonal influenza vaccines is based on an understanding of the epidemiology of influenza and on global disease and virologic surveillance. Experience with seasonal influenza vaccines guided the initial development of pandemic influenza vaccines. A large investment in pandemic influenza vaccines in the last decade has resulted in much progress and a body of information that can now be applied to refine the established paradigm. Critical and complementary considerations for pandemic influenza vaccines include improved assessment of the pandemic potential of animal influenza viruses, proactive development and deployment of pandemic influenza vaccines, and application of novel platforms and strategies for vaccine production and administration. PMID:26587050

Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after exposure to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination or infection: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Ghaderi, Sara; Gunnes, Nina; Bakken, Inger Johanne; Magnus, Per; Trogstad, Lill; Håberg, Siri Eldevik

2016-01-01

Vaccinations and infections are possible triggers of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). However, studies on GBS after vaccinations during the influenza A(H1N1)pmd09 pandemic in 2009, show inconsistent results. Only few studies have addressed the role of influenza infection. We used information from national health data-bases with information on the total Norwegian population (N = 4,832,211). Cox regression analyses with time-varying covariates and self-controlled case series was applied. The risk of being hospitalized with GBS during the pandemic period, within 42 days after an influenza diagnosis or pandemic vaccination was estimated. There were 490 GBS cases during 2009-2012 of which 410 cases occurred after October 1, 2009 of which 46 new cases occurred during the peak period of the influenza pandemic. An influenza diagnosis was registered for 2.47% of the population and the vaccination coverage was 39.25%. The incidence rate ratio of GBS during the pandemic peak relative to other periods was 1.46 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08-1.98]. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of GBS within 42 days after a diagnosis of pandemic influenza was 4.89 (95% CI 1.17-20.36). After pandemic vaccination the adjusted HR was 1.11 (95% CI 0.51-2.43). Our results indicated that there was a significantly increased risk of GBS during the pandemic season and after pandemic influenza infection. However, vaccination did not increase the risk of GBS. The small number of GBS cases in this study warrants caution in the interpretation of the findings.

Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Around the globe, school closures were used sporadically to mitigate the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. However, such closures can detrimentally impact economic and social life. Methods Here, we couple a decision analytic approach with a mathematical model of influenza transmission to estimate the impact of school closures in terms of epidemiological and cost effectiveness. Our method assumes that the transmissibility and the severity of the disease are uncertain, and evaluates several closure and reopening strategies that cover a range of thresholds in school-aged prevalence (SAP) and closure durations. Results Assuming a willingness to pay per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) threshold equal to the US per capita GDP ($46,000), we found that the cost effectiveness of these strategies is highly dependent on the severity and on a willingness to pay per QALY. For severe pandemics, the preferred strategy couples the earliest closure trigger (0.5% SAP) with the longest duration closure (24 weeks) considered. For milder pandemics, the preferred strategies also involve the earliest closure trigger, but are shorter duration (12 weeks for low transmission rates and variable length for high transmission rates). Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of obtaining early estimates of pandemic severity and provide guidance to public health decision-makers for effectively tailoring school closures strategies in response to a newly emergent influenza pandemic. PMID:22713694

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China.

PubMed

Cao, Chunxiang; Chen, Wei; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases.

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Pandemic SARS Spread in Mainland China

PubMed Central

Cao, Chunxiang; Zheng, Sheng; Zhao, Jian; Wang, Jinfeng; Cao, Wuchun

2016-01-01

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is one of the most severe emerging infectious diseases of the 21st century so far. SARS caused a pandemic that spread throughout mainland China for 7 months, infecting 5318 persons in 194 administrative regions. Using detailed mainland China epidemiological data, we study spatiotemporal aspects of this person-to-person contagious disease and simulate its spatiotemporal transmission dynamics via the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method. The BME reveals that SARS outbreaks show autocorrelation within certain spatial and temporal distances. We use BME to fit a theoretical covariance model that has a sine hole spatial component and exponential temporal component and obtain the weights of geographical and temporal autocorrelation factors. Using the covariance model, SARS dynamics were estimated and simulated under the most probable conditions. Our study suggests that SARS transmission varies in its epidemiological characteristics and SARS outbreak distributions exhibit palpable clusters on both spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the BME modelling demonstrates that SARS transmission features are affected by spatial heterogeneity, so we analyze potential causes. This may benefit epidemiological control of pandemic infectious diseases. PMID:27597972

Assessing Argentina's response to H1N1 in austral winter 2009: from presidential lethargy to local ingenuity.

PubMed

Stern, Alexandra Minna; Koreck, Maria Teresa; Markel, Howard

2011-01-01

Argentina experienced a heavy burden of novel H1N1 influenza in austral winter 2009. In early July 2009, Argentina reported more than 1,500 cases and was confronting the highest per capita H1N1 mortality rate in the world. By September 2009, more than 500 people had died of H1N1 in Argentina. Unlike sister countries Chile and Mexico, Argentina's national authorities did not respond by implementing mitigation measures such as public gathering bans and school closures or by issuing broad-based messages about personal hygiene and disease prevention. Around the globe, many observers expressed dismay at this inaction. For example, The Economist scolded the country's leadership for its halting response and seeming apathy to an escalating health crisis. Why did Argentina, a middle-income country with a developed and, in many respects, sophisticated system of health and education, fall short in enacting a national pandemic plan during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak? What can we learn from Argentina's experiences about obstacles and opportunities during a pandemic crisis? This article, based on extensive qualitative research, including document capture, media analysis, and oral history interviews, assesses Argentina's mixed response to H1N1 during austral winter 2009, and adds to a growing body of studies focused on how governments and health systems in the Americas performed during the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic. When the first cases of novel H1N1 influenza were identified by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in mid-April 2009, Argentina's national health ministry appeared to be prepared. Starting in 2002, primarily in response to the prospect of avian influenza, the health ministry had formulated a preparedness plan and, beginning in 2005, had conducted at least five pandemic simulation exercises. In April 2009, Argentina's health ministry activated its pandemic response plan, triggering the establishment of an executive-level situation room equipped with rapid communications and computer surveillance to track events as they unfolded. In addition, several expert committees were assembled to assess the situation and solicit input from health practitioners, academics, hospital staff, and allied professionals.

Using evidence-based medicine to protect healthcare workers from pandemic influenza: Is it possible?

PubMed

Gralton, Jan; McLaws, Mary-Louise

2011-01-01

To use evidence-based principles to develop infection control algorithms to ensure the protection of healthcare workers and the continuity of health service provision during a pandemic. : Evidence-based algorithms were developed from published research as well as "needs and values" assessments. Research evidence was obtained from 97 studies reporting the protectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal vaccination, and mask use. Needs and values assessments were undertaken by international experts in pandemic infection control and local healthcare workers. Opportunity and resources costs were not determined. The Australian government commissioned the development of an evidence-based algorithm for inclusion in the 2008 revision of the Australian Health and Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza. Two international infection control teams responsible for healthcare worker safety during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak reviewed the evidence-based algorithms. The algorithms were then reviewed for needs and values by eight local clinicians who were considered key frontline clinicians during the contain and sustain phases. The international teams reviewed for practicability of implementation, whereas local clinicians reviewed for clinician compliance. Despite strong evidence for vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis providing significant protection, clinicians believed they required the additional combinations of both masks and face shields. Despite the equivocal evidence for the efficacy of surgical and N95 masks and the provision of algorithms appropriate for the level of risk according to clinical care during a pandemic, clinicians still demanded N95 masks plus face shields in combination with prophylaxis and novel vaccination. Conventional evidence-based principles could not be applied to formulate recommendations due to the lack of pandemic-specific efficacy data of protection tools and the inherent unpredictability of pandemics. As an alternative, evidence-based principles have been used to formulate recommendations while giving priority to the needs and values of healthcare workers over the research evidence.

A systematic review to identify areas of enhancements of pandemic simulation models for operational use at provincial and local levels

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In recent years, computer simulation models have supported development of pandemic influenza preparedness policies. However, U.S. policymakers have raised several concerns about the practical use of these models. In this review paper, we examine the extent to which the current literature already addresses these concerns and identify means of enhancing the current models for higher operational use. Methods We surveyed PubMed and other sources for published research literature on simulation models for influenza pandemic preparedness. We identified 23 models published between 1990 and 2010 that consider single-region (e.g., country, province, city) outbreaks and multi-pronged mitigation strategies. We developed a plan for examination of the literature based on the concerns raised by the policymakers. Results While examining the concerns about the adequacy and validity of data, we found that though the epidemiological data supporting the models appears to be adequate, it should be validated through as many updates as possible during an outbreak. Demographical data must improve its interfaces for access, retrieval, and translation into model parameters. Regarding the concern about credibility and validity of modeling assumptions, we found that the models often simplify reality to reduce computational burden. Such simplifications may be permissible if they do not interfere with the performance assessment of the mitigation strategies. We also agreed with the concern that social behavior is inadequately represented in pandemic influenza models. Our review showed that the models consider only a few social-behavioral aspects including contact rates, withdrawal from work or school due to symptoms appearance or to care for sick relatives, and compliance to social distancing, vaccination, and antiviral prophylaxis. The concern about the degree of accessibility of the models is palpable, since we found three models that are currently accessible by the public while other models are seeking public accessibility. Policymakers would prefer models scalable to any population size that can be downloadable and operable in personal computers. But scaling models to larger populations would often require computational needs that cannot be handled with personal computers and laptops. As a limitation, we state that some existing models could not be included in our review due to their limited available documentation discussing the choice of relevant parameter values. Conclusions To adequately address the concerns of the policymakers, we need continuing model enhancements in critical areas including: updating of epidemiological data during a pandemic, smooth handling of large demographical databases, incorporation of a broader spectrum of social-behavioral aspects, updating information for contact patterns, adaptation of recent methodologies for collecting human mobility data, and improvement of computational efficiency and accessibility. PMID:22463370

School closure as an influenza mitigation strategy: how variations in legal authority and plan criteria can alter the impact.

PubMed

Potter, Margaret A; Brown, Shawn T; Cooley, Phillip C; Sweeney, Patricia M; Hershey, Tina B; Gleason, Sherrianne M; Lee, Bruce Y; Keane, Christopher R; Grefenstette, John; Burke, Donald S

2012-11-14

States' pandemic influenza plans and school closure statutes are intended to guide state and local officials, but most faced a great deal of uncertainty during the 2009 influenza H1N1 epidemic. Questions remained about whether, when, and for how long to close schools and about which agencies and officials had legal authority over school closures. This study began with analysis of states' school-closure statutes and pandemic influenza plans to identify the variations among them. An agent-based model of one state was used to represent as constants a population's demographics, commuting patterns, work and school attendance, and community mixing patterns while repeated simulations explored the effects of variations in school closure authority, duration, closure thresholds, and reopening criteria. The results show no basis on which to justify statewide rather than school-specific or community-specific authority for school closures. Nor do these simulations offer evidence to require school closures promptly at the earliest stage of an epidemic. More important are criteria based on monitoring of local case incidence and on authority to sustain closure periods sufficiently to achieve epidemic mitigation. This agent-based simulation suggests several ways to improve statutes and influenza plans. First, school closure should remain available to state and local authorities as an influenza mitigation strategy. Second, influenza plans need not necessarily specify the threshold for school closures but should clearly define provisions for early and ongoing local monitoring. Finally, school closure authority may be exercised at the statewide or local level, so long as decisions are informed by monitoring incidence in local communities and schools.

Mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in France: comparison to seasonal influenza and the A/H3N2 pandemic.

PubMed

Lemaitre, Magali; Carrat, Fabrice; Rey, Grégoire; Miller, Mark; Simonsen, Lone; Viboud, Cécile

2012-01-01

The mortality burden of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic remains unclear in many countries due to delays in reporting of death statistics. We estimate the age- and cause-specific excess mortality impact of the pandemic in France, relative to that of other countries and past epidemic and pandemic seasons. We applied Serfling and Poisson excess mortality approaches to model weekly age- and cause-specific mortality rates from June 1969 through May 2010 in France. Indicators of influenza activity, time trends, and seasonal terms were included in the models. We also reviewed the literature for country-specific estimates of 2009 pandemic excess mortality rates to characterize geographical differences in the burden of this pandemic. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was associated with 1.0 (95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 0.2-1.9) excess respiratory deaths per 100,000 population in France, compared to rates per 100,000 of 44 (95% CI 43-45) for the A/H3N2 pandemic and 2.9 (95% CI 2.3-3.7) for average inter-pandemic seasons. The 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic had a 10.6-fold higher impact than inter-pandemic seasons in people aged 5-24 years and 3.8-fold lower impact among people over 65 years. The 2009 pandemic in France had low mortality impact in most age groups, relative to past influenza seasons, except in school-age children and young adults. The historical A/H3N2 pandemic was associated with much larger mortality impact than the 2009 pandemic, across all age groups and outcomes. Our 2009 pandemic excess mortality estimates for France fall within the range of previous estimates for high-income regions. Based on the analysis of several mortality outcomes and comparison with laboratory-confirmed 2009/H1N1 deaths, we conclude that cardio-respiratory and all-cause mortality lack precision to accurately measure the impact of this pandemic in high-income settings and that use of more specific mortality outcomes is important to obtain reliable age-specific estimates.

A model to evaluate mass vaccination against pneumococcus as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Crowe, Sonya; Utley, Martin; Walker, Guy; Grove, Peter; Pagel, Christina

2011-07-12

A mathematical model has been developed for the purpose of evaluating vaccination against pneumococcus as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza. As the characteristics of a future pandemic cannot be known in advance, three distinct pandemic scenarios were considered, corresponding to a 1918-like pandemic, a 1957/1968-like pandemic and a 2009-like pandemic. Model estimates for each of these pandemic scenarios are presented for two options of vaccination programme; universal vaccination of the entire UK population and vaccination only of those people considered to be at heightened risk of developing influenza complications. We find that the benefits of each option (in terms of estimated number of deaths and hospital admissions avoided and the courses of antibiotics saved) are high in a 1918-like pandemic and very small in a 2009-like pandemic. Given that the decision regarding deployment of the counter measure would occur prior to knowledge of the flu-strain characteristics being available, we also present the weighted average of the outcomes from the three pandemic scenarios. Based on the historical occurrence of pandemics over the last 100 years, the weighted average of outcomes is an estimated 1400 deaths prevented by the universal vaccination option and 400 deaths saved by the targeted vaccination option (at a cost of approximately 400 million and 50 million courses of vaccine respectively). Finally, the longer term implications of using PPV as a countermeasure against pandemic influenza have been considered by estimating the expected number of courses of vaccine bought and the expected number of deaths and hospital admissions prevented over time under each policy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza: a survey of pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies in Montgomery County, Maryland.

PubMed

Watkins, Rissah J; Barnett, Daniel J; Links, Jonathan M

2008-09-01

We conducted a survey of corporate preparedness for pandemic influenza among biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in Montgomery County, Maryland, to determine the level of preparedness for this industry and geographic region. The survey, based on the HHS Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist, established whether a company had a preparedness plan specific to pandemic influenza, the contents of its plan, or its reasons for a lack of a plan. A total of 50 companies participated in the survey. Of these, 40 did not have any type of preparedness plan, 3 were drafting plans, 6 had general preparedness plans that could be applied to an influenza pandemic, and only 1 company had a preparedness plan specifically designed to address pandemic influenza. Biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies in this geographic region are currently not well prepared for pandemic influenza. Public health officials should offer more help, possibly in the form of a model small business preparedness plan, and collaboration between companies should be encouraged to foster sharing of preparedness plans.

Pandemic pharmaceutical dosing effects on wastewater treatment: no adaptation of activated sludge bacteria to degrade the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu®) and loss of nutrient removal performance.

PubMed

Slater, Frances R; Singer, Andrew C; Turner, Susan; Barr, Jeremy J; Bond, Philip L

2011-02-01

The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic saw many people treated with antivirals and antibiotics. High proportions of both classes of drugs are excreted and enter wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in biologically active forms. To date, there has been no study into the potential for influenza pandemic-scale pharmaceutical use to disrupt WWTP function. Furthermore, there is currently little indication as to whether WWTP microbial consortia can degrade antiviral neuraminidase inhibitors when exposed to pandemic-scale doses. In this study, we exposed an aerobic granular sludge sequencing batch reactor, operated for enhanced biological phosphorus removal (EBPR), to a simulated influenza-pandemic dosing of antibiotics and antivirals for 8 weeks. We monitored the removal of the active form of Tamiflu(®), oseltamivir carboxylate (OC), bacterial community structure, granule structure and changes in EBPR and nitrification performance. There was little removal of OC by sludge and no evidence that the activated sludge community adapted to degrade OC. There was evidence of changes to the bacterial community structure and disruption to EBPR and nitrification during and after high-OC dosing. This work highlights the potential for the antiviral contamination of receiving waters and indicates the risk of destabilizing WWTP microbial consortia as a result of high concentrations of bioactive pharmaceuticals during an influenza pandemic. © 2010 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms.

PubMed

Patel, Rajan; Longini, Ira M; Halloran, M Elizabeth

2005-05-21

In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.

Assessing the Ecotoxicologic Hazards of a Pandemic Influenza Medical Response

PubMed Central

Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E.; Keller, Virginie D.J.; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J.

2011-01-01

Background: The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. Objectives: We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. Methods: To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Results: Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0–14% and 5–32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0–14% and 0–30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). Conclusions: The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity. PMID:21367688

Assessing the ecotoxicologic hazards of a pandemic influenza medical response.

PubMed

Singer, Andrew C; Colizza, Vittoria; Schmitt, Heike; Andrews, Johanna; Balcan, Duygu; Huang, Wei E; Keller, Virginie D J; Vespignani, Alessandro; Williams, Richard J

2011-08-01

The global public health community has closely monitored the unfolding of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to best mitigate its impact on society. However, little attention has been given to the impact of this response on the environment. Antivirals and antibiotics prescribed to treat influenza are excreted into wastewater in a biologically active form, which presents a new and potentially significant ecotoxicologic challenge to microorganisms responsible for wastewater nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and receiving rivers. We assessed the ecotoxicologic risks of a pandemic influenza medical response. To evaluate this risk, we coupled a global spatially structured epidemic model that simulates the quantities of antivirals and antibiotics used during an influenza pandemic of varying severity and a water quality model applied to the Thames catchment to determine predicted environmental concentrations. An additional model was then used to assess the effects of antibiotics on microorganisms in WWTPs and rivers. Consistent with expectations, our model projected a mild pandemic to exhibit a negligible ecotoxicologic hazard. In a moderate and severe pandemic, we projected WWTP toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 5-32% potentially affected fraction (PAF), respectively, and river toxicity to vary between 0-14% and 0-30% PAF, respectively, where PAF is the fraction of microbial species predicted to be growth inhibited (lower and upper 95% reference range). The current medical response to pandemic influenza might result in the discharge of insufficiently treated wastewater into receiving rivers, thereby increasing the risk of eutrophication and contamination of drinking water abstraction points. Widespread drugs in the environment could hasten the generation of drug resistance. Our results highlight the need for empirical data on the effects of antibiotics and antiviral medications on WWTPs and freshwater ecotoxicity.

Health System Resource Gaps and Associated Mortality from Pandemic Influenza across Six Asian Territories

PubMed Central

Rudge, James W.; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Krumkamp, Ralf; Chavez, Irwin; Adisasmito, Wiku; Ngoc Chau, Pham; Phommasak, Bounlay; Putthasri, Weerasak; Shih, Chin-Shui; Stein, Mart; Timen, Aura; Touch, Sok; Reintjes, Ralf; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

Background Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. Methods and Findings We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a “mild-to-moderate” pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as “avoidable” mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. Conclusions The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths. PMID:22363739

Health system resource gaps and associated mortality from pandemic influenza across six Asian territories.

PubMed

Rudge, James W; Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Krumkamp, Ralf; Chavez, Irwin; Adisasmito, Wiku; Chau, Pham Ngoc; Phommasak, Bounlay; Putthasri, Weerasak; Shih, Chin-Shui; Stein, Mart; Timen, Aura; Touch, Sok; Reintjes, Ralf; Coker, Richard

2012-01-01

Southeast Asia has been the focus of considerable investment in pandemic influenza preparedness. Given the wide variation in socio-economic conditions, health system capacity across the region is likely to impact to varying degrees on pandemic mitigation operations. We aimed to estimate and compare the resource gaps, and potential mortalities associated with those gaps, for responding to pandemic influenza within and between six territories in Asia. We collected health system resource data from Cambodia, Indonesia (Jakarta and Bali), Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. We applied a mathematical transmission model to simulate a "mild-to-moderate" pandemic influenza scenario to estimate resource needs, gaps, and attributable mortalities at province level within each territory. The results show that wide variations exist in resource capacities between and within the six territories, with substantial mortalities predicted as a result of resource gaps (referred to here as "avoidable" mortalities), particularly in poorer areas. Severe nationwide shortages of mechanical ventilators were estimated to be a major cause of avoidable mortalities in all territories except Taiwan. Other resources (oseltamivir, hospital beds and human resources) are inequitably distributed within countries. Estimates of resource gaps and avoidable mortalities were highly sensitive to model parameters defining the transmissibility and clinical severity of the pandemic scenario. However, geographic patterns observed within and across territories remained similar for the range of parameter values explored. The findings have important implications for where (both geographically and in terms of which resource types) investment is most needed, and the potential impact of resource mobilization for mitigating the disease burden of an influenza pandemic. Effective mobilization of resources across administrative boundaries could go some way towards minimizing avoidable deaths.

Understanding estimated worker absenteeism rates during an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Thanner, Meridith H; Links, Jonathan M; Meltzer, Martin I; Scheulen, James J; Kelen, Gabor D

2011-01-01

Published employee absenteeism estimates during an influenza pandemic range from 10 to 40 percent. The purpose of this study was to estimate daily employee absenteeism through the duration of an influenza pandemic and to determine the relative impact of key variables used to derive the estimates. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's FluWorkLoss program, the authors estimated the number of absent employees on any given day over the course of a simulated 8-week pandemic wave by using varying attack rates. Employee data from a university with a large academic health system were used. Sensitivity of the program outputs to variation in predictor (inputs) values was assessed. Finally, the authors examined and documented the algorithmic sequence of the program. Using a 35 percent attack rate, a total of 47,270 workdays (or 3.4 percent of all available workdays) would be lost over the course of an 8-week pandemic among a population of 35,026 employees. The highest (peak) daily absenteeism estimate was 5.8 percent (minimum 4.8 percent; maximum 7.4 percent). Sensitivity analysis revealed that varying days missed for nonhospitalized illness had the greatest potential effect on peak absence rate (3.1 to 17.2 percent). Peak absence with 15 and 25 percent attack rates were 2.5 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively. The impact of an influenza pandemic on employee availability may be less than originally thought, even with a high attack rate. These data are generalizable and are not specific to institutions of higher education or medical centers. Thus, these findings provide realistic and useful estimates for influenza pandemic planning for most organizations.

Preparedness for pandemics: does variation among states affect the nation as a whole?

PubMed

Potter, Margaret A; Brown, Shawn T; Lee, Bruce Y; Grefenstette, John; Keane, Christopher R; Lin, Chyongchiou J; Quinn, Sandra C; Stebbins, Samuel; Sweeney, Patricia M; Burke, Donald S

2012-01-01

Since states' public health systems differ as to pandemic preparedness, this study explored whether such heterogeneity among states could affect the nation's overall influenza rate. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention produced a uniform set of scores on a 100-point scale from its 2008 national evaluation of state preparedness to distribute materiel from the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). This study used these SNS scores to represent each state's relative preparedness to distribute influenza vaccine in a timely manner and assumed that "optimal" vaccine distribution would reach at least 35% of the state's population within 4 weeks. The scores were used to determine the timing of vaccine distribution for each state: each 10-point decrement of score below 90 added an additional delay increment to the distribution time. A large-scale agent-based computational model simulated an influenza pandemic in the US population. In this synthetic population each individual or agent had an assigned household, age, workplace or school destination, daily commute, and domestic intercity air travel patterns. Simulations compared influenza case rates both nationally and at the state level under 3 scenarios: no vaccine distribution (baseline), optimal vaccine distribution in all states, and vaccine distribution time modified according to state-specific SNS score. Between optimal and SNS-modified scenarios, attack rates rose not only in low-scoring states but also in high-scoring states, demonstrating an interstate spread of infections. Influenza rates were sensitive to variation of the SNS-modified scenario (delay increments of 1 day versus 5 days), but the interstate effect remained. The effectiveness of a response activity such as vaccine distribution could benefit from national standards and preparedness funding allocated in part to minimize interstate disparities.

Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Z. D.

1985-08-01

A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Z. D.

1985-01-01

A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts.

A definition for influenza pandemics based on historical records.

PubMed

Potter, Chris W; Jennings, Roy

2011-10-01

To analyse the records of past influenza outbreaks to determine a definition for pandemics. Analysis of publications of large outbreaks of influenza which have occurred since 1889/90, and to match the results against the current definitions of an influenza pandemic. According to the general understanding of a pandemic, nine outbreaks of influenza since 1889/90 satisfy the definition; however, for two of these, occurring in 1900 and 1933, the data are limited. The special condition for an influenza pandemic requires, in one definition, that the virus strain responsible could not have arisen from the previous circulating strain by mutation; and in the second, that the new strain be a different subtype to the previously circulating strain. Both these restrictions deny pandemic status to two, and possibly three, influenza outbreaks which were pandemics according to the more general understanding of the term. These observations suggest that a re-evaluation of the criteria which define influenza pandemics should be carried out. The contradiction outlined above brings the previous definitions of an influenza pandemic into question; however, this can be resolved by defining an influenza pandemic by the following criteria. Thus, an influenza pandemic arises at a single, specific place and spreads rapidly to involve numerous countries. The haemagglutinin (HA) of the emergent virus does not cross-react serologically with the previously dominant virus strain(s), and there is a significant lack of immunity in the population against the emergent virus. These three criteria are interlinked and can be determined early to alert authorities who could respond appropriately. Other criteria associated with pandemics are necessarily retrospective, although important and valid. The implications of this definition are discussed. Copyright © 2011 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

System-level planning, coordination, and communication: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Dichter, Jeffrey R; Kanter, Robert K; Dries, David; Luyckx, Valerie; Lim, Matthew L; Wilgis, John; Anderson, Michael R; Sarani, Babak; Hupert, Nathaniel; Mutter, Ryan; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D; Kissoon, Niranjan

2014-10-01

System-level planning involves uniting hospitals and health systems, local/regional government agencies, emergency medical services, and other health-care entities involved in coordinating and enabling care in a major disaster. We reviewed the literature and sought expert opinions concerning system-level planning and engagement for mass critical care due to disasters or pandemics and offer suggestions for system-planning, coordination, communication, and response. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all of those involved in a pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. The American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) consensus statement development process was followed in developing suggestions. Task Force members met in person to develop nine key questions believed to be most relevant for system-planning, coordination, and communication. A systematic literature review was then performed for relevant articles and documents, reports, and other publications reported since 1993. No studies of sufficient quality were identified upon which to make evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Suggestions were developed and grouped according to the following thematic elements: (1) national government support of health-care coalitions/regional health authorities (HC/RHAs), (2) teamwork within HC/RHAs, (3) system-level communication, (4) system-level surge capacity and capability, (5) pediatric patients and special populations, (6) HC/RHAs and networks, (7) models of advanced regional care systems, and (8) the use of simulation for preparedness and planning. System-level planning is essential to provide care for large numbers of critically ill patients because of disaster or pandemic. It also entails a departure from the routine, independent system and involves all levels from health-care institutions to regional health authorities. National government support is critical, as are robust communication systems and advanced planning supported by realistic exercises.

The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Basta, Nicole E; Chao, Dennis L; Matrajt, Laura; Potter, Gail; Kenah, Eben; Longini, Ira M

2009-10-30

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

Network theory may explain the vulnerability of medieval human settlements to the Black Death pandemic.

PubMed

Gómez, José M; Verdú, Miguel

2017-03-06

Epidemics can spread across large regions becoming pandemics by flowing along transportation and social networks. Two network attributes, transitivity (when a node is connected to two other nodes that are also directly connected between them) and centrality (the number and intensity of connections with the other nodes in the network), are widely associated with the dynamics of transmission of pathogens. Here we investigate how network centrality and transitivity influence vulnerability to diseases of human populations by examining one of the most devastating pandemic in human history, the fourteenth century plague pandemic called Black Death. We found that, after controlling for the city spatial location and the disease arrival time, cities with higher values of both centrality and transitivity were more severely affected by the plague. A simulation study indicates that this association was due to central cities with high transitivity undergo more exogenous re-infections. Our study provides an easy method to identify hotspots in epidemic networks. Focusing our effort in those vulnerable nodes may save time and resources by improving our ability of controlling deadly epidemics.

Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Among Public-Housing Residents, Single-Parent Families, and Low-Income Populations

PubMed Central

Truman, Benedict I.; Hutchins, Sonja; Richard, Roland; Brown, Clive; Guillory, Joyce A.; Rashid, Jamila

2009-01-01

During the early stages of an influenza pandemic, a pandemic vaccine likely will not be available. Therefore, interventions to mitigate pandemic influenza transmission in communities will be an important component of the response to a pandemic. Public-housing residents, single-parent families, and low-income populations may have difficulty complying with community-wide interventions. To enable compliance with community interventions, stakeholders recommended the following: (1) community mobilization and partnerships, (2) culturally specific emergency communications planning, (3) culturally specific education and training programs, (4) evidence-based measurement and evaluation efforts, (5) strategic planning policies, (6) inclusion of community members as partners, and (7) policy and program changes to minimize morbidity and mortality. PMID:19797740

Forecasting techno-social systems: how physics and computing help to fight off global pandemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-03-01

The crucial issue when planning for adequate public health interventions to mitigate the spread and impact of epidemics is risk evaluation and forecast. This amount to the anticipation of where, when and how strong the epidemic will strike. In the last decade advances in performance in computer technology, data acquisition, statistical physics and complex networks theory allow the generation of sophisticated simulations on supercomputer infrastructures to anticipate the spreading pattern of a pandemic. For the first time we are in the position of generating real time forecast of epidemic spreading. I will review the history of the current H1N1 pandemic, the major road-blocks the community has faced in its containment and mitigation and how physics and computing provide predictive tools that help us to battle epidemics.

Computational Evolutionary Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Forecasting in Epidemiology and Medicine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Dhananjai M.; Chernyakhovsky, Alexander; Rao, Victoria

2008-05-01

Humanity is facing an increasing number of highly virulent and communicable diseases such as avian influenza. Researchers believe that avian influenza has potential to evolve into one of the deadliest pandemics. Combating these diseases requires in-depth knowledge of their epidemiology. An effective methodology for discovering epidemiological knowledge is to utilize a descriptive, evolutionary, ecological model and use bio-simulations to study and analyze it. These types of bio-simulations fall under the category of computational evolutionary methods because the individual entities participating in the simulation are permitted to evolve in a natural manner by reacting to changes in the simulated ecosystem. This work describes the application of the aforementioned methodology to discover epidemiological knowledge about avian influenza using a novel eco-modeling and bio-simulation environment called SEARUMS. The mathematical principles underlying SEARUMS, its design, and the procedure for using SEARUMS are discussed. The bio-simulations and multi-faceted case studies conducted using SEARUMS elucidate its ability to pinpoint timelines, epicenters, and socio-economic impacts of avian influenza. This knowledge is invaluable for proactive deployment of countermeasures in order to minimize negative socioeconomic impacts, combat the disease, and avert a pandemic.

Computational Evolutionary Methodology for Knowledge Discovery and Forecasting in Epidemiology and Medicine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Dhananjai M.; Chernyakhovsky, Alexander; Rao, Victoria

2008-05-08

Humanity is facing an increasing number of highly virulent and communicable diseases such as avian influenza. Researchers believe that avian influenza has potential to evolve into one of the deadliest pandemics. Combating these diseases requires in-depth knowledge of their epidemiology. An effective methodology for discovering epidemiological knowledge is to utilize a descriptive, evolutionary, ecological model and use bio-simulations to study and analyze it. These types of bio-simulations fall under the category of computational evolutionary methods because the individual entities participating in the simulation are permitted to evolve in a natural manner by reacting to changes in the simulated ecosystem. Thismore » work describes the application of the aforementioned methodology to discover epidemiological knowledge about avian influenza using a novel eco-modeling and bio-simulation environment called SEARUMS. The mathematical principles underlying SEARUMS, its design, and the procedure for using SEARUMS are discussed. The bio-simulations and multi-faceted case studies conducted using SEARUMS elucidate its ability to pinpoint timelines, epicenters, and socio-economic impacts of avian influenza. This knowledge is invaluable for proactive deployment of countermeasures in order to minimize negative socioeconomic impacts, combat the disease, and avert a pandemic.« less

The influence of climatic conditions on the transmission dynamics of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The role of demographic factors, climatic conditions, school cycles, and connectivity patterns in shaping the spatio-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza is not clearly understood. Here we analyzed the spatial, age and temporal evolution of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in Chile, a southern hemisphere country covering a long and narrow strip comprising latitudes 17°S to 56°S. Methods We analyzed the dissemination patterns of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic across 15 regions of Chile based on daily hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory disease and laboratory confirmed A/H1N1 influenza infection from 01-May to 31-December, 2009. We explored the association between timing of pandemic onset and peak pandemic activity and several geographical and demographic indicators, school vacations, climatic factors, and international passengers. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the exponential pandemic phase by date of symptoms onset, estimated using maximum likelihood methods. Results While earlier pandemic onset was associated with larger population size, there was no association with connectivity, demographic, school or climatic factors. In contrast, there was a latitudinal gradient in peak pandemic timing, representing a 16-39-day lag in disease activity from the southern regions relative to the northernmost region (P < 0.001). Geographical differences in latitude of Chilean regions, maximum temperature and specific humidity explained 68.5% of the variability in peak timing (P = 0.01). In addition, there was a decreasing gradient in reproduction number from south to north Chile (P < 0.0001). The regional mean R estimates were 1.6-2.0, 1.3-1.5, and 1.2-1.3 for southern, central and northern regions, respectively, which were not affected by the winter vacation period. Conclusions There was a lag in the period of most intense 2009 pandemic influenza activity following a South to North traveling pattern across regions of Chile, significantly associated with geographical differences in minimum temperature and specific humidity. The latitudinal gradient in timing of pandemic activity was accompanied by a gradient in reproduction number (P < 0.0001). Intensified surveillance strategies in colder and drier southern regions could lead to earlier detection of pandemic influenza viruses and improved control outcomes. PMID:23148597

Insufficient preparedness of primary care practices for pandemic influenza and the effect of a preparedness plan in Japan: a prefecture-wide cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cases of emerging infectious diseases, including H5N1 influenza, H7N9 influenza, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, have been reported in recent years, and the threat of pandemic outbreaks persists. In Japan, primary care is the frontline against emerging infectious diseases in communities. Although the importance of pandemic preparedness in primary care has been highlighted previously, few studies have thus far investigated the preparedness among primary care practices (PCPs) or differences in the preparedness of different institutional settings. We examined PCP preparedness and response to the 2009 influenza pandemic in Japan, and explored the role of a pandemic preparedness plan during the pandemic. Methods We used a survey questionnaire to assess how well individual PCPs in Okinawa, Japan, were prepared for the 2009 influenza pandemic. The questionnaire was mailed to all eligible PCPs (N = 465) in Okinawa, regardless of their institutional setting. In addition, we assessed the differences in the preparedness of clinics and hospitals and determined whether the national preparedness plan affected individual preparedness and response. Data were analyzed using descriptive and logistic regression analyses. Results A total of 174 (37.4%) PCPs responded to our survey. In general, high-level personal protective equipment (PPE) such as N95 masks (45.4%), gowns (30.5%), and eye protection (21.3%) was stocked at a low rate. Clinic-based PCPs were significantly less prepared than hospital-based PCPs to provide N95 masks (OR 0.34), gowns (OR 0.15), and eye protection (OR 0.18). In addition, only 32.8% of PCPs adopted an adequate business continuity plan (BCP). After controlling for institutional setting, reading the national preparedness plan was significantly associated with establishment of a BCP (OR 5.86), and with knowledge of how to transfer a swab specimen to a local medical laboratory (OR 5.60). Conclusions With regard to PPE availability, PCPs (especially clinic-based PCPs) were not adequately prepared for the influenza pandemic. Awareness of the national pandemic preparedness plan is likely to promote prefecture-wide implementation of BCPs and surveillance activity. PMID:24252688

Revisiting node-based SIR models in complex networks with degree correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alofi, Abdulaziz; AL-Mazrooei, Abdullah; Elaiw, Ahmed

2015-11-01

In this paper, we consider two growing networks which will lead to the degree-degree correlations between two nearest neighbors in the network. When the network grows to some certain size, we introduce an SIR-like disease such as pandemic influenza H1N1/09 to the population. Due to its rapid spread, the population size changes slowly, and thus the disease spreads on correlated networks with approximately fixed size. To predict the disease evolution on correlated networks, we first review two node-based SIR models incorporating degree correlations and an edge-based SIR model without considering degree correlation, and then compare the predictions of these models with stochastic SIR simulations, respectively. We find that the edge-based model, even without considering degree correlations, agrees much better than the node-based models incorporating degree correlations with stochastic SIR simulations in many respects. Moreover, simulation results show that for networks with positive correlation, the edge-based model provides a better upper bound of the cumulative incidence than the node-based SIR models, whereas for networks with negative correlation, it provides a lower bound of the cumulative incidence.

Challenges and lessons learned from implementing a risk-based approach to school advice and closure during the containment phase of the 2009 influenza pandemic in the West Midlands, England.

PubMed

Awofisayo, A; Ibbotson, S; Smith, G E; Janmohamed, K; Mohamed, H; Olowokure, B

2013-07-01

School closure as a social distancing measure was used in some countries during the initial phases of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to describe the use of a risk-based approach to public health interventions for schools during the 'containment phase' of the pandemic and to describe lessons learnt. The development of a framework for risk assessment and decision-making to determine school closures in the West Midlands, England, during the 'containment phase' of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic is described. Using the framework developed during the 'containment phase', assessments were conducted for 344 educational institutions who reported confirmed cases or 'particularly high absenteeism'. Of these, 209 (60%) had confirmed cases and 65 were closed, mainly for public health or operational reasons. Schools were closed on an individual basis, during the most intense period of the pandemic and for an average period of six days (maximum 11 days). The risk-based approach evolved as experience and knowledge of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic virus increased, however some decisions were difficult to communicate to parents, schools and stakeholders particularly when the number of schools affected escalated and the pandemic response phases changed. The management of school closures is an 'uncertain art'. Numerous challenges and lessons were identified in attempting, during the containment phase of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, to ensure consistency and transparency in an increasingly complex process. The overall approach described could be further developed to improve decision-making for infectious diseases in schools. Copyright © 2013 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic Analysis of the Use of Facemasks During Pandemic (H1N1) 2009

PubMed Central

Tracht, Samantha M.; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Edwards, Brian K.

2012-01-01

A large-scale pandemic could cause severe health, social, and economic impacts. The recent 2009 H1N1 pandemic confirmed the need for mitigation strategies that are cost-effective and easy to implement. Typically, in the early stages of a pandemic, as seen with pandemic (H1N1) 2009, vaccines and antivirals may be limited or non-existent, resulting in the need for non-pharmaceutical strategies to reduce the spread of disease and the economic impact. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population comprised of three different age groups and assume that some individuals wear facemasks. We then quantify the impact facemasks could have had on the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 and examine their cost effectiveness. Our analyses show that an unmitigated pandemic could result in losses of nearly $832 billion in the United States during the length of the pandemic. Based on present value of future earnings, hospital costs, and lost income estimates due to illness, this study estimates that the use of facemasks by 10%, 25%, and 50% of the population could reduce economic losses by $478 billion, $570 billion, and $573 billion, respectively. The results show that facemasks can significantly reduce the number of influenza cases as well as the economic losses due to a pandemic. PMID:22300798

Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

PubMed

Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

2018-02-01

There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

Beyond Morality: Assessment of the Capacity of Faith-based Organizations (FBOS) in Responding to the HIV/AIDS Challenge in Southeastern Nigeria.

PubMed

Anugwom, Eze Edlyne; Anugwom, Kenechukwu

2018-01-01

For the world can get rid of the HIV/AIDS pandemic by 2030, there is need for more to be done especially in the case of countries in Africa. In Nigeria, such efforts have included Faith-Based Organizations (FBOs) recognized as partners in the National Response Framework. However, the extent to which these FBOs contribute to efforts to control the pandemic will depend on their capacity. Therefore, this study aimed to ascertain the technical and managerial capacity of these FBOs to respond to the pandemic in Nigeria. We utilized social survey in examining the capacity of three purposively selected FBOs in the Southeast of Nigeria to respond to the pandemic. Thus, the focus group discussion and the key informant interviews were used. The data for the study was collected between Feb and Apr 2014. The study discovered a general low capacity but high willingness of the FBOs to get involved. One of the FBOs studied was better placed than others and had even established committee on the pandemic. However, in another FBO, the pandemic was still seen largely with moral lens that blame those infected rather than provide support. All the FBOs were ambivalent on the use of condoms as a prevention method. There is need for sustained capacity building for the FBOs in order to provide them with knowledge on the pandemic and help them act out the role envisaged for them in the National Response Framework in Nigeria.

Early Detection of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Rahman, Mustafizur; Al Mamun, Abdullah; Haider, Mohammad Sabbir; Zaman, Rashid Uz; Karmakar, Polash Chandra; Nasreen, Sharifa; Muneer, Syeda Mah-E; Homaira, Nusrat; Goswami, Doli Rani; Ahmed, Be-Nazir; Husain, Mohammad Mushtuq; Jamil, Khondokar Mahbuba; Khatun, Selina; Ahmed, Mujaddeed; Chakraborty, Apurba; Fry, Alicia; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Bresee, Joseph; Azim, Tasnim; Alamgir, A.S.M.; Brooks, Abdullah; Hossain, Mohamed Jahangir; Klimov, Alexander; Rahman, Mahmudur; Luby, Stephen P.

2012-01-01

To explore Bangladesh’s ability to detect novel influenza, we examined a series of laboratory-confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 cases. During June–July 2009, event-based surveillance identified 30 case-patients (57% travelers); starting July 29, sentinel sites identified 252 case-patients (1% travelers). Surveillance facilitated response weeks before the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection to the general population. PMID:22257637

Sero-Prevalence and Genetic Diversity of Pandemic V. parahaemolyticus Strains Occurring at a Global Scale.

PubMed

Han, Chongxu; Tang, Hui; Ren, Chuanli; Zhu, Xiaoping; Han, Dongsheng

2016-01-01

Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus is an emerging public health concern as it has caused numerous gastroenteritis outbreaks worldwide. Currently, the absence of a global overview of the phenotypic and molecular characteristics of pandemic strains restricts our overall understanding of these strains, especially for environmental strains. To generate a global picture of the sero-prevalence and genetic diversity of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus, pandemic isolates from worldwide collections were selected and analyzed in this study. After a thorough analysis, we found that the pandemic isolates represented 49 serotypes, which are widely distributed in 22 countries across four continents (Asia, Europe, America and Africa). All of these serotypes were detected in clinical isolates but only nine in environmental isolates. O3:K6 was the most widely disseminated serotype, followed by O3:KUT, while the others were largely restricted to certain countries. The countries with the most abundant pandemic serotypes were China (26 serotypes), India (24 serotypes), Thailand (15 serotypes) and Vietnam (10 serotypes). Based on MLST analysis, 14 sequence types (STs) were identified among the pandemic strains, nine of which fell within clonal complex (CC) 3. ST3 and ST305 were the only two STs that have been reported in environmental pandemic strains. Pandemic ST3 has caused a wide range of infections in as many as 16 countries. Substantial serotypic diversity was mainly observed among isolates within pandemic ST3, including as many as 12 combinations of O/K serotypes. At the allele level, the dtdS and pntA, two loci that perfectly conserved in CC3, displayed a degree of polymorphism in some pandemic strains. In conclusion, we provide a comprehensive understanding of sero-prevalence and genetic differentiation of clinical and environmental pandemic isolates collected from around the world. Although, further studies are needed to delineate the specific mechanisms by which the pandemic strains evolve and spread, the findings in this study are helpful when seeking countermeasures to reduce the spread of V. parahaemolyticus in endemic areas.

The limitations of point of care testing for pandemic influenza: what clinicians and public health professionals need to know.

PubMed

Hatchette, Todd F; Bastien, Nathalie; Berry, Jody; Booth, Tim F; Chernesky, Max; Couillard, Michel; Drews, Steven; Ebsworth, Anthony; Fearon, Margaret; Fonseca, Kevin; Fox, Julie; Gagnon, Jean-Nicolas; Guercio, Steven; Horsman, Greg; Jorowski, Cathy; Kuschak, Theodore; Li, Yan; Majury, Anna; Petric, Martin; Ratnam, Sam; Smieja, Marek; Van Caeseele, Paul

2009-01-01

As the world prepares for the next influenza pandemic, governments have made significant funding commitments to vaccine development and antiviral stockpiling. While these are essential components to pandemic response, rapid and accurate diagnostic testing remains an often neglected cornerstone of pandemic influenza preparedness. Clinicians and Public Health Practitioners need to understand the benefits and drawbacks of different influenza tests in both seasonal and pandemic settings. Culture has been the traditional gold standard for influenza diagnosis but requires from 1-10 days to generate a positive result, compared to nucleic acid detection methods such as real time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Although the currently available rapid antigen detection kits can generate results in less than 30 minutes, their sensitivity is suboptimal and they are not recommended for the detection of novel influenza viruses. Until point-of-care (POC) tests are improved, PILPN recommends that the best option for pandemic influenza preparation is the enhancement of nucleic acid-based testing capabilities across Canada.

Early-warning signals for an outbreak of the influenza pandemic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Di; Gao, Jie

2011-12-01

Over the course of human history, influenza pandemics have been seen as major disasters, so studies on the influenza virus have become an important issue for many experts and scholars. Comprehensive research has been performed over the years on the biological properties, chemical characteristics, external environmental factors and other aspects of the virus, and some results have been achieved. Based on the chaos game representation walk model, this paper uses the time series analysis method to study the DNA sequences of the influenza virus from 1913 to 2010, and works out the early-warning signals indicator value for the outbreak of an influenza pandemic. The variances in the CGR walk sequences for the pandemic years (or + -1 to 2 years) are significantly higher than those for the adjacent years, while those in the non-pandemic years are usually smaller. In this way we can provide an influenza early-warning mechanism so that people can take precautions and be well prepared prior to a pandemic.

Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Zamani, Nasim; MacIntyre, C. Raina; Becker, Niels G.

2007-01-01

We investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can strongly influence delay. The model simulations suggested that moderate delays in geographic spread may be possible with stringent restrictions and a low reproduction number, but results will be sensitive to the reproduction number and timing of restrictions. Model limitations include the absence of further importations and additional control measures. Internal border control may have a role in protecting domestic centers early in a pandemic, when importations are sparse. Our results may be useful for policymakers. PMID:18214176

Epidemic patch models applied to pandemic influenza: contact matrix, stochasticity, robustness of predictions.

PubMed

Lunelli, Antonella; Pugliese, Andrea; Rizzo, Caterina

2009-07-01

Due to the recent emergence of H5N1 virus, the modelling of pandemic influenza has become a relevant issue. Here we present an SEIR model formulated to simulate a possible outbreak in Italy, analysing its structure and, more generally, the effect of including specific details into a model. These details regard population heterogeneities, such as age and spatial distribution, as well as stochasticity, that regulates the epidemic dynamics when the number of infectives is low. We discuss and motivate the specific modelling choices made when building the model and investigate how the model details influence the predicted dynamics. Our analysis may help in deciding which elements of complexity are worth including in the design of a deterministic model for pandemic influenza, in a balance between, on the one hand, keeping the model computationally efficient and the number of parameters low and, on the other hand, maintaining the necessary realistic features.

Predictive and Reactive Distribution of Vaccines and Antivirals during Cross-Regional Pandemic Outbreaks

PubMed Central

Uribe-Sánchez, Andrés; Savachkin, Alex

2011-01-01

As recently pointed out by the Institute of Medicine, the existing pandemic mitigation models lack the dynamic decision support capability. We develop a large-scale simulation-driven optimization model for generating dynamic predictive distribution of vaccines and antivirals over a network of regional pandemic outbreaks. The model incorporates measures of morbidity, mortality, and social distancing, translated into the cost of lost productivity and medical expenses. The performance of the strategy is compared to that of the reactive myopic policy, using a sample outbreak in Fla, USA, with an affected population of over four millions. The comparison is implemented at different levels of vaccine and antiviral availability and administration capacity. Sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of variability of some critical factors on policy performance. The model is intended to support public health policy making for effective distribution of limited mitigation resources. PMID:23074658

The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

PubMed

Jackson, Charlotte; Mangtani, Punam; Hawker, Jeremy; Olowokure, Babatunde; Vynnycky, Emilia

2014-01-01

School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies. We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns. School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number <2), and if attack rates were higher in children than in adults. The cumulative attack rate was expected to change less than the peak, but quantitative predictions varied (e.g. reductions in the peak were frequently 20-60% but some studies predicted >90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns. Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

A knowledge representation of local pandemic influenza planning models.

PubMed

Islam, Runa; Brandeau, Margaret L; Das, Amar K

2007-10-11

Planning for pandemic flu outbreak at the small-government level can be aided through the use of mathematical policy models. Formulating and analyzing policy models, however, can be a time- and expertise-expensive process. We believe that a knowledge-based system for facilitating the instantiation of locale- and problem-specific policy models can reduce some of these costs. In this work, we present the ontology we have developed for pandemic influenza policy models.

The 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru

PubMed Central

Chowell, G.; Viboud, C.; Simonsen, L.; Miller, M.A.; Hurtado, J.; Soto, G.; Vargas, R.; Guzman, M.A.; Ulloa, M.; Munayco, C.V.

2011-01-01

Background Increasing our knowledge of past influenza pandemic patterns in different regions of the world is crucial to guide preparedness plans against future influenza pandemics. Here, we undertook extensive archival collection efforts from 3 representative cities of Peru (Lima in the central coast, Iquitos in the northeastern Amazon region, Ica in the southern coast) to characterize the age and geographic patterns of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in this country. Materials and Methods We analyzed historical documents describing the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in Peru and retrieved individual mortality records from local provincial archives for quantitative analysis. We applied seasonal excess mortality models to daily and monthly respiratory mortality rates for 1917–1920 and quantified transmissibility estimates based on the daily growth rate in respiratory deaths. Results A total of 52,739 individual mortality records were inspected from local provincial archives. We found evidence for an initial mild pandemic wave during July-September 1918 in Lima, identified a synchronized severe pandemic wave of respiratory mortality in all three locations in Peru during November 1918-February 1919, and a severe pandemic wave during January 1920- March 1920 in Lima and July-October 1920 in Ica. There was no recrudescent pandemic wave in 1920 in Iquitos. Remarkably, Lima experienced the brunt of the 1918–20 excess mortality impact during the 1920 recrudescent wave, with all age groups experiencing an increase in all cause excess mortality from 1918–19 to 1920. Middle age groups experienced the highest excess mortality impact, relative to baseline levels, in the 1918–19 and 1920 pandemic waves. Cumulative excess mortality rates for the 1918–20 pandemic period were higher in Iquitos (2.9%) than Lima (1.6%). The mean reproduction number for Lima was estimated in the range 1.3–1.5. Conclusions We identified synchronized pandemic waves of intense excess respiratory mortality during November 1918-February 1919 in Lima, Iquitos, Ica, followed by asynchronous recrudescent waves in 1920. Cumulative data from quantitative studies of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Latin American settings have confirmed the high mortality impact associated with this pandemic. Further historical studies in lesser-studied regions of Latin America, Africa, and Asia are warranted for a full understanding of the global impact of the 1918 pandemic virus. PMID:21757099

Including the public in pandemic planning: a deliberative approach

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Against a background of pandemic threat posed by SARS and avian H5N1 influenza, this study used deliberative forums to elucidate informed community perspectives on aspects of pandemic planning. Methods Two deliberative forums were carried out with members of the South Australian community. The forums were supported by a qualitative study with adults and youths, systematic reviews of the literature and the involvement of an extended group of academic experts and policy makers. The forum discussions were recorded with simultaneous transcription and analysed thematically. Results Participants allocated scarce resources of antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccine based on a desire to preserve society function in a time of crisis. Participants were divided on the acceptability of social distancing and quarantine measures. However, should such measures be adopted, they thought that reasonable financial, household and psychological support was essential. In addition, provided such support was present, the participants, in general, were willing to impose strict sanctions on those who violated quarantine and social distancing measures. Conclusions The recommendations from the forums suggest that the implementation of pandemic plans in a severe pandemic will be challenging, but not impossible. Implementation may be more successful if the public is engaged in pandemic planning before a pandemic, effective communication of key points is practiced before and during a pandemic and if judicious use is made of supportive measures to assist those in quarantine or affected by social isolation measures. PMID:20718996

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chan; Araz, Ozgur M; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-06-01

In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response.

National surveillance of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection-related admissions to intensive care units during the 2009-10 winter peak in Denmark: two complementary approaches.

PubMed

Gubbels, S; Perner, A; Valentiner-Branth, P; Molbak, K

2010-12-09

Surveillance of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in Denmark was enhanced during the 2009–10 winter season with a system monitoring the burden of the pandemic on intensive care units (ICUs), in order to inform policymakers and detect shortages in ICUs in a timely manner. Between week 46 of 2009 and week 11 of 2010, all 36 relevant Danish ICUs reported in two ways: aggregate data were reported online and case-based data on paper. Cases to be reported were defined as patients admitted to an ICU with laboratory-confirmed 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) infection or clinically suspected illness after close contact with a laboratory-confirmed case. Aggregate numbers of cases were reported weekly: during weeks 48-51 (the peak), reporting was daily. The case-based reports contained demographic and clinical information. The aggregate surveillance registered 93 new cases, the case-based surveillance 61, of whom 53 were laboratory confirmed. The proportion of beds used for influenza patients did not exceed 4.5% of the national capacity. Hospitals with cases used a median of 11% of bed capacity (range: 3–40%). Of the patients for whom information was available, 15 of 48 patients developed renal insufficiency, 19 of 50 developed septic shock and 17 of 53 died. The number of patients with pandemic influenza could be managed within the national bed capacity, although the impact on some ICUs was substantial. The combination of both reporting methods (collecting aggregate and case-based data) proved to be useful for monitoring the burden of the pandemic on ICUs.

Equalizing access to pandemic influenza vaccines through optimal allocation to public health distribution points.

PubMed

Huang, Hsin-Chan; Singh, Bismark; Morton, David P; Johnson, Gregory P; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-01-01

Vaccines are arguably the most important means of pandemic influenza mitigation. However, as during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, mass immunization with an effective vaccine may not begin until a pandemic is well underway. In the U.S., state-level public health agencies are responsible for quickly and fairly allocating vaccines as they become available to populations prioritized to receive vaccines. Allocation decisions can be ethically and logistically complex, given several vaccine types in limited and uncertain supply and given competing priority groups with distinct risk profiles and vaccine acceptabilities. We introduce a model for optimizing statewide allocation of multiple vaccine types to multiple priority groups, maximizing equal access. We assume a large fraction of available vaccines are distributed to healthcare providers based on their requests, and then optimize county-level allocation of the remaining doses to achieve equity. We have applied the model to the state of Texas, and incorporated it in a Web-based decision-support tool for the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS). Based on vaccine quantities delivered to registered healthcare providers in response to their requests during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, we find that a relatively small cache of discretionary doses (DSHS reserved 6.8% in 2009) suffices to achieve equity across all counties in Texas.

Ethics-sensitivity of the Ghana national integrated strategic response plan for pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Laar, Amos; DeBruin, Debra

2015-05-07

Many commentators call for a more ethical approach to planning for influenza pandemics. In the developed world, some pandemic preparedness plans have already been examined from an ethical viewpoint. This paper assesses the attention given to ethics issues by the Ghana National Integrated Strategic Plan for Pandemic Influenza (NISPPI). We critically analyzed the Ghana NISPPI's sensitivity to ethics issues to determine how well it reflects ethical commitments and principles identified in our review of global pandemic preparedness literature, existing pandemic plans, and relevant ethics frameworks. This paper reveals that important ethical issues have not been addressed in the Ghana NISPPI. Several important ethical issues are unanticipated, unacknowledged, and unplanned for. These include guidelines on allocation of scarce resources, the duties of healthcare workers, ethics-sensitive operational guidelines/protocols, and compensation programs. The NISPPI also pays scant attention to use of vaccines and antivirals, border issues and cooperation with neighboring countries, justification for delineated actions, and outbreak simulations. Feedback and communication plans are nebulous, while leadership, coordination, and budgeting are quite detailed. With respect to presentation, the NISPPI's text is organized around five thematic areas. While each area implicates ethical issues, NISPPI treatment of these areas consistently fails to address them. Our analysis reveals a lack of consideration of ethics by the NISPPI. We contend that, while the plan's content and fundamental assumptions provide support for implementation of the delineated public health actions, its consideration of ethical issues is poor. Deficiencies include a failure to incorporate guidelines that ensure fair distribution of scarce resources and a lack of justification for delineated procedures. Until these deficiencies are recognized and addressed, Ghana runs the risk of rolling out unjust and ethically indefensible actions with real negative effects in the event of a pandemic. Soliciting inputs from the public and consultation with ethicists during the next revision of the NISPPI will be useful in addressing these issues.

Factors affecting preparedness and capacity to manage pandemic influenza: perceptions of healthcare managers.

PubMed

Adini, B; Laor, D; Aharonson-Daniel, L

2014-08-01

Numerous interventions seeking to increase preparedness for pandemic influenza have been implemented, but low compliance of healthcare providers has been reported in many instances. The aim of this study was to identify factors that affect preparedness for pandemic influenza by examining: hospital managers' perceptions of measures implemented to promote preparedness for pandemic influenza; hospital managers' assessments of the readiness and capability of their hospitals to manage pandemic influenza; and the effectiveness of a national pandemic preparedness programme in Israel over time. A quasi-experiment was conducted following implementation of a national pandemic preparedness programme in Israel. A survey assessed hospital managers' perceptions of the effectiveness of the programme, and the preparedness and capacity of their hospitals to manage pandemic influenza. Two independent evaluations of preparedness for biological threats were conducted, based on a validated tool that included 60 objective parameters. Correlations between perceived preparedness and capacity and components of the preparedness programme were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences Version 17. Stepwise logistic regression was used to determine the components that influence preparedness and capability to manage pandemic influenza. All general hospital managers in Israel were approached twice (first and second evaluations). Ninety-one percent rated themselves as highly/very highly prepared for pandemic influenza, and 87% rated themselves as highly/very highly capable of dealing with pandemic influenza. Strong correlation was found between hospital managers' perceived preparedness and capacity to manage pandemic influenza (rho = 0.761, P = 0.000), and between perceived preparedness and familiarity with the disease (rho = 0.605, P = 0.003). Familiarity with guidelines accounted for 35% of the variance in perceived capability (adjusted R(2) = 0.346, P = 0.002). Inclusion of preparedness evaluations explained an additional 15% of the variance (R(2) change = 0.146, P = 0.026). An increase in mean total score for emergency preparedness was found in the second evaluation compared with the first evaluation. Familiarity with guidelines and preparedness evaluations affect the perceptions of healthcare managers regarding preparedness and capability to manage pandemic influenza. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccine: an update.

PubMed

Goel, M K; Goel, M; Khanna, P; Mittal, K

2011-01-01

The world witnessed a the first influenza pandemic in this century and fourth overall since first flu pandemic was reported during the World War I. The past experiences with influenza viruses and this pandemic of H1N1 place a consider-able strain on health services and resulted in serious illnesses and a large number of deaths. Develop-ing countries were declared more likely to be at risk from the pandemic effects, as they faced the dual problem of highly vulnerable populations and limited resources to respond H1N1. The public health experts agreed that vaccination is the most effective ways to mitigate the negative effects of the pandemic. The vaccines for H1N1 virus have been used in over 40 countries and administered to over 200 million people helped in a great way and on August 10, 2010, World Health Organization (WHO) announced H1N1 to be in postpandemic period. But based on knowledge about past pandemics, the H1N1 (2009) virus is expected to continue to circulate as a seasonal virus and may undergo some agenic-variation. As WHO strongly recommends vaccination, vigilance for regular updating of the composition of influenza vaccines, based on an assessment of the future impact of circulating viruses along with safety surveillance of the vaccines is necessary. This review has been done to take a stock of the currently available H1N1 vaccines and their possible use as public health intervention in the postpandemic period.

Transmission dynamics of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in humans and swine in backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru.

PubMed

Tinoco, Yeny O; Montgomery, Joel M; Kasper, Mathew R; Nelson, Martha I; Razuri, Hugo; Guezala, Maria C; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Widdowson, Marc-Alain; Barnes, John; Gilman, Robert H; Bausch, Daniel G; Gonzalez, Armando E

2016-01-01

We aimed to determine the frequency of pH1N1 transmission between humans and swine on backyard farms in Tumbes, Peru. Two-year serial cross-sectional study comprising four sampling periods: March 2009 (pre-pandemic), October 2009 (peak of the pandemic in Peru), April 2010 (1st post-pandemic period), and October 2011 (2nd post-pandemic period). Backyard swine serum, tracheal swabs, and lung sample were collected during each sampling period. We assessed current and past pH1N1 infection in swine through serological testing, virus culture, and RT-PCR and compared the results with human incidence data from a population-based active surveillance cohort study in Peru. Among 1303 swine sampled, the antibody prevalence to pH1N1 was 0% pre-pandemic, 8% at the peak of the human pandemic (October 2009), and 24% in April 2010 and 1% in October 2011 (post-pandemic sampling periods). Trends in swine seropositivity paralleled those seen in humans in Tumbes. The pH1N1 virus was isolated from three pigs during the peak of the pandemic. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that these viruses likely represent two separate human-to-swine transmission events in backyard farm settings. Our findings suggest that human-to-swine pH1N1 transmission occurred during the pandemic among backyard farms in Peru, emphasizing the importance of interspecies transmission in backyard pig populations. Continued surveillance for influenza viruses in backyard farms is warranted. © 2015 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Government bodies and their influence on the 2009 H1N1 health sector pandemic response in remote and isolated First Nation communities of sub-Arctic Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Charania, N A; Tsuji, L J S

2011-01-01

First Nation communities were highly impacted by the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Multiple government bodies (ie federal, provincial, and First Nations) in Canada share responsibility for the health sector pandemic response in remote and isolated First Nation communities and this may have resulted in a fragmented pandemic response. This study aimed to discover if and how the dichotomy (or trichotomy) of involved government bodies led to barriers faced and opportunities for improvement during the health sector response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in three remote and isolated sub-arctic First Nation communities of northern Ontario, Canada. A qualitative community-based participatory approach was employed. Semi-directed interviews were conducted with adult key informants (n=13) using purposive sampling of participants representing the two (or three) government bodies of each study community. Data were manually transcribed and coded using deductive and inductive thematic analysis to reveal positive aspects, barriers faced, and opportunities for improvement along with the similarities and differences regarding the pandemic responses of each government body. Primary barriers faced by participants included receiving contradicting governmental guidelines and direction from many sources. In addition, there was a lack of human resources, information sharing, and specific details included in community-level pandemic plans. Recommended areas of improvement include developing a complementary communication plan, increasing human resources, and updating community-level pandemic plans. Participants reported many issues that may be attributable to the dichotomy (or trichotomy) of government bodies responsible for healthcare delivery during a pandemic. Increasing formal communication and collaboration between responsible government bodies will assist in clarifying roles and responsibilities and improve the pandemic response in Canada's remote and isolated First Nation communities.

Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Maro, Judith C.; Fryback, Dennis G.; Lieu, Tracy A.; Lee, Grace M.; Martin, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system. Methods We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons. Results Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior. Conclusions The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior. PMID:25536228

Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics

PubMed Central

Araz, Ozgur M.; Morton, David P.; Johnson, Gregory P.; Damien, Paul; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-01-01

In preparing for influenza pandemics, public health agencies stockpile critical medical resources. Determining appropriate quantities and locations for such resources can be challenging, given the considerable uncertainty in the timing and severity of future pandemics. We introduce a method for optimizing stockpiles of mechanical ventilators, which are critical for treating hospitalized influenza patients in respiratory failure. As a case study, we consider the US state of Texas during mild, moderate, and severe pandemics. Optimal allocations prioritize local over central storage, even though the latter can be deployed adaptively, on the basis of real-time needs. This prioritization stems from high geographic correlations and the slightly lower treatment success assumed for centrally stockpiled ventilators. We developed our model and analysis in collaboration with academic researchers and a state public health agency and incorporated it into a Web-based decision-support tool for pandemic preparedness and response. PMID:28518041

Influenza A virus recycling revisited.

PubMed Central

Dowdle, W. R.

1999-01-01

Current textbooks link influenza pandemics to influenza A virus subtypes H2 (1889-91), H3 (1990), H1 (1918-20), H2 (1957-58) and H3 (1968), a pattern suggesting subtype recycling in humans. Since H1 reappeared in 1977, whatever its origin, some workers feel that H2 is the next pandemic candidate. This report reviews the publications on which the concept of influenza A virus subtype recycling is based and concludes that the data are inconsistent with the purported sequence of events. The three influenza pandemics prior to 1957-58 were linked with subtypes through retrospective studies of sera from the elderly, or through seroarchaeology. The pandemic seroarchaeological model for subtype H1 has been validated by the recent recovery of swine virus RNA fragments from persons who died from influenza in 1918. Application of the model to pre-existing H3 antibody among the elderly links the H3 subtype to the pandemic of 1889-91, not that of 1900 as popularly quoted. Application of the model to pre-existing H2 antibody among the elderly fails to confirm that this subtype caused a pandemic in the late 1800's, a finding which is consistent with age-related excess mortality patterns during the pandemics of 1957 (H2) and 1968 (H3). H2 variants should be included in pandemic planning for a number of reasons, but not because of evidence of recycling. It is not known when the next pandemic will occur or which of the 15 (or more) haemagglutinin subtypes will be involved. Effective global surveillance remains the key to influenza preparedness. PMID:10593030

Preparing for influenza after 2009 H1N1: special considerations for pregnant women and newborns.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Sonja A; Kissin, Dmitry M; Yeung, Lorraine F; MacFarlane, Kitty; Chu, Susan Y; Turcios-Ruiz, Reina M; Mitchell, Elizabeth W; Williams, Jennifer; Fry, Alicia M; Hageman, Jeffrey; Uyeki, Timothy M; Jamieson, Denise J

2011-06-01

Pregnant women and their newborn infants are at increased risk for influenza-associated complications, based on data from seasonal influenza and influenza pandemics. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) developed public health recommendations for these populations in response to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. A review of these recommendations and information that was collected during the pandemic is needed to prepare for future influenza seasons and pandemics. The CDC convened a meeting entitled "Pandemic Influenza Revisited: Special Considerations for Pregnant Women and Newborns" on August 12-13, 2010, to gain input from experts and key partners on 4 main topics: antiviral prophylaxis and therapy, vaccine use, intrapartum/newborn (including infection control) issues, and nonpharmaceutical interventions and health care planning. Challenges to communicating recommendations regarding influenza to pregnant women and their health care providers were also discussed. After careful consideration of the available information and individual expert input, the CDC updated its recommendations for these populations for future influenza seasons and pandemics. Published by Mosby, Inc.

A Comprehensive Laboratory Animal Facility Pandemic Response Plan

PubMed Central

Roble, Gordon S; Lingenhol, Naomi M; Baker, Bryan; Wilkerson, Amy; Tolwani, Ravi J

2010-01-01

The potential of a severe influenza pandemic necessitates the development of an organized, rational plan for continued laboratory animal facility operation without compromise of the welfare of animals. A comprehensive laboratory animal program pandemic response plan was integrated into a university-wide plan. Preparation involved input from all levels of organizational hierarchy including the IACUC. Many contingencies and operational scenarios were considered based on the severity and duration of the influenza pandemic. Trigger points for systematic action steps were based on the World Health Organization's phase alert criteria. One extreme scenario requires hibernation of research operations and maintenance of reduced numbers of laboratory animal colonies for a period of up to 6 mo. This plan includes active recruitment and cross-training of volunteers for essential personnel positions, protective measures for employee and family health, logistical arrangements for delivery and storage of food and bedding, the removal of waste, and the potential for euthanasia. Strategies such as encouraging and subsidizing cryopreservation of unique strains were undertaken to protect valuable research assets and intellectual property. Elements of this plan were put into practice after escalation of the pandemic alerts due to influenza A (H1N1) in April 2009. PMID:20858365

Comparison of five influenza surveillance systems during the 2009 pandemic and their association with media attention

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background During the 2009 influenza pandemic period, routine surveillance of influenza-like-illness (ILI) was conducted in The Netherlands by a network of sentinel general practitioners (GPs). In addition during the pandemic period, four other ILI/influenza surveillance systems existed. For pandemic preparedness, we evaluated the performance of the sentinel system and the others to assess which of the four could be useful additions in the future. We also assessed whether performance of the five systems was influenced by media reports during the pandemic period. Methods The trends in ILI consultation rates reported by sentinel GPs from 20 April 2009 through 3 January 2010 were compared with trends in data from the other systems: ILI cases self-reported through the web-based Great Influenza Survey (GIS); influenza-related web searches through Google Flu Trends (GFT); patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza, and detections of influenza virus by laboratories. In addition, correlations were determined between ILI consultation rates of the sentinel GPs and data from the four other systems. We also compared the trends of the five surveillance systems with trends in pandemic-related newspaper and television coverage and determined correlation coefficients with and without time lags. Results The four other systems showed similar trends and had strong correlations with the ILI consultation rates reported by sentinel GPs. The number of influenza virus detections was the only system to register a summer peak. Increases in the number of newspaper articles and television broadcasts did not precede increases in activity among the five surveillance systems. Conclusions The sentinel general practice network should remain the basis of influenza surveillance, as it integrates epidemiological and virological information and was able to maintain stability and continuity under pandemic pressure. Hospital and virological data are important during a pandemic, tracking the severity, molecular and phenotypic characterization of the viruses and confirming whether ILI incidence is truly related to influenza virus infections. GIS showed that web-based, self-reported ILI can be a useful addition, especially if virological self-sampling is added and an epidemic threshold could be determined. GFT showed negligible added value. PMID:24063523

Willingness of university nursing students to volunteer during a pandemic.

PubMed

Yonge, Olive; Rosychuk, Rhonda J; Bailey, Tracey M; Lake, Rob; Marrie, Thomas J

2010-01-01

The global threat of an influenza pandemic continues to grow and thus universities have begun emergency preparedness planning. This study examined stakeholder's knowledge, risk-perception, and willingness to volunteer. The design of this study is a cross-sectional survey. Questionnaires were sent to 1,512 nursing students and were returned by 484, yielding a response rate of 32% for this subgroup. Nursing students may be a much-needed human resource in the event of an influenza pandemic. The measurement tool was a Web-based questionnaire regarding pandemic influenza designed by a subgroup of researchers on the Public Health Response Committee. Most nursing students (67.9%) said they were likely to volunteer in the event of a pandemic if they were able to do so. An even higher number (77.4%) said they would volunteer if provided protective garments. Overall, 70.7% of students supported the proposition that nursing students have a professional obligation to volunteer during a pandemic. Nursing students indicated that they have had a wealth of volunteer experience in the past and they would apply this service ethic to a pandemic situation. Emergency preparedness competencies should be integrated into existing nursing curricula and other health science programs. University administrations need to engage in planning to create protocol for recruitment, practice, and protection of volunteers.

Economic analysis of pandemic influenza vaccination strategies in Singapore.

PubMed

Lee, Vernon J; Tok, Mei Yin; Chow, Vincent T; Phua, Kai Hong; Ooi, Eng Eong; Tambyah, Paul A; Chen, Mark I

2009-09-22

All influenza pandemic plans advocate pandemic vaccination. However, few studies have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different vaccination strategies. This paper compares the economic outcomes of vaccination compared with treatment with antiviral agents alone, in Singapore. We analyzed the economic outcomes of pandemic vaccination (immediate vaccination and vaccine stockpiling) compared with treatment-only in Singapore using a decision-based model to perform cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses. We also explored the annual insurance premium (willingness to pay) depending on the perceived risk of the next pandemic occurring. The treatment-only strategy resulted in 690 deaths, 13,950 hospitalization days, and economic cost of USD$497 million. For immediate vaccination, at vaccine effectiveness of >55%, vaccination was cost-beneficial over treatment-only. Vaccine stockpiling is not cost-effective in most scenarios even with 100% vaccine effectiveness. The annual insurance premium was highest with immediate vaccination, and was lower with increased duration to the next pandemic. The premium was also higher with higher vaccine effectiveness, attack rates, and case-fatality rates. Stockpiling with case-fatality rates of 0.4-0.6% would be cost-beneficial if vaccine effectiveness was >80%; while at case-fatality of >5% stockpiling would be cost-beneficial even if vaccine effectiveness was 20%. High-risk sub-groups warrant higher premiums than low-risk sub-groups. The actual pandemic vaccine effectiveness and lead time is unknown. Vaccine strategy should be based on perception of severity. Immediate vaccination is most cost-effective, but requires vaccines to be available when required. Vaccine stockpiling as insurance against worst-case scenarios is also cost-effective. Research and development is therefore critical to develop and stockpile cheap, readily available effective vaccines.

A Coordinated Approach to Communicating Pediatric-Related Information on Pandemic Influenza at the Community Level

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HCTT CHE

2009-12-16

The purpose of this document is to provide a suggested approach, based on input from pediatric stakeholders, to communicating pediatric-related information on pandemic influenza at the community level in a step-by-step manner.

Determination of preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 based on protection motivation theory among female high school students in Isfahan, Iran.

PubMed

Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Yarmohammadi, Parastoo; Sharifabad, Mohammad Ali Morowati; Rahaei, Zohreh

2014-01-01

Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic has recently threatened the health of world's population more than ever. Non-pharmaceutical measures are important to prevent the spread of influenza A/H1N1 and to prevent a pandemic. Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing preventive behavioral. This study reports on predictors of students' preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 using variables based on the protection motivation theory (PMT). In a cross-sectional study, multiple-stage randomized sampling was used to select 300 female students in Isfahan who completed a questionnaire in December 2009. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire based on PMT. The statistical analysis of the data included bivariate correlations, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and linear regression. The mean age of participants was 15.62 (SE = 1.1) years old. Majority of participants were aware regarding pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (87.3%, 262 out of 300). Results showed that, protection motivation was highly significant relationship with preventive behavior and predicted 34% of its variance. We found all of the variables with the exception of perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and response cost were related with protection motivation and explained 22% of its variance. Promotion of students' self-efficacy, and intention to protect themselves from a health threat should be priorities of any programs aimed at promoting preventive behaviors among students. It is also concluded that the protection motivation theory may be used in developing countries, like Iran, as a framework for prevention interventions in an attempt to improve the preventive behaviors of students.

Determination of preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 based on protection motivation theory among female high school students in Isfahan, Iran

PubMed Central

Sharifirad, Gholamreza; Yarmohammadi, Parastoo; Sharifabad, Mohammad Ali Morowati; Rahaei, Zohreh

2014-01-01

Introduction: Influenza A/H1N1 pandemic has recently threatened the health of world's population more than ever. Non-pharmaceutical measures are important to prevent the spread of influenza A/H1N1 and to prevent a pandemic. Effective influenza pandemic management requires understanding of the factors influencing preventive behavioral. This study reports on predictors of students’ preventive behaviors for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 using variables based on the protection motivation theory (PMT). Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study, multiple-stage randomized sampling was used to select 300 female students in Isfahan who completed a questionnaire in December 2009. Data were collected using a self-report questionnaire based on PMT. The statistical analysis of the data included bivariate correlations, Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, and linear regression. Results: The mean age of participants was 15.62 (SE = 1.1) years old. Majority of participants were aware regarding pandemic influenza A/H1N1 (87.3%, 262 out of 300). Results showed that, protection motivation was highly significant relationship with preventive behavior and predicted 34% of its variance. We found all of the variables with the exception of perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, and response cost were related with protection motivation and explained 22% of its variance. Conclusion: Promotion of students’ self-efficacy, and intention to protect themselves from a health threat should be priorities of any programs aimed at promoting preventive behaviors among students. It is also concluded that the protection motivation theory may be used in developing countries, like Iran, as a framework for prevention interventions in an attempt to improve the preventive behaviors of students. PMID:24741647

Pandemic influenza preparedness and health systems challenges in Asia: results from rapid analyses in 6 Asian countries.

PubMed

Hanvoravongchai, Piya; Adisasmito, Wiku; Chau, Pham Ngoc; Conseil, Alexandra; de Sa, Joia; Krumkamp, Ralf; Mounier-Jack, Sandra; Phommasack, Bounlay; Putthasri, Weerasak; Shih, Chin-Shui; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

2010-06-08

Since 2003, Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, has received substantial attention because of the anticipation that it could be the epicentre of the next pandemic. There has been active investment but earlier review of pandemic preparedness plans in the region reveals that the translation of these strategic plans into operational plans is still lacking in some countries particularly those with low resources. The objective of this study is to understand the pandemic preparedness programmes, the health systems context, and challenges and constraints specific to the six Asian countries namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam in the prepandemic phase before the start of H1N1/2009. The study relied on the Systemic Rapid Assessment (SYSRA) toolkit, which evaluates priority disease programmes by taking into account the programmes, the general health system, and the wider socio-cultural and political context. The components under review were: external context; stewardship and organisational arrangements; financing, resource generation and allocation; healthcare provision; and information systems. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in the second half of 2008 based on a review of published data and interviews with key informants, exploring past and current patterns of health programme and pandemic response. The study shows that health systems in the six countries varied in regard to the epidemiological context, health care financing, and health service provision patterns. For pandemic preparation, all six countries have developed national governance on pandemic preparedness as well as national pandemic influenza preparedness plans and Avian and Human Influenza (AHI) response plans. However, the governance arrangements and the nature of the plans differed. In the five developing countries, the focus was on surveillance and rapid containment of poultry related transmission while preparation for later pandemic stages was limited. The interfaces and linkages between health system contexts and pandemic preparedness programmes in these countries were explored. Health system context influences how the six countries have been preparing themselves for a pandemic. At the same time, investment in pandemic preparation in the six Asian countries has contributed to improvement in health system surveillance, laboratory capacity, monitoring and evaluation and public communications. A number of suggestions for improvement were presented to strengthen the pandemic preparation and mitigation as well as to overcome some of the underlying health system constraints.

Pandemic influenza preparedness and health systems challenges in Asia: results from rapid analyses in 6 Asian countries

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Since 2003, Asia-Pacific, particularly Southeast Asia, has received substantial attention because of the anticipation that it could be the epicentre of the next pandemic. There has been active investment but earlier review of pandemic preparedness plans in the region reveals that the translation of these strategic plans into operational plans is still lacking in some countries particularly those with low resources. The objective of this study is to understand the pandemic preparedness programmes, the health systems context, and challenges and constraints specific to the six Asian countries namely Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Taiwan, Thailand, and Viet Nam in the prepandemic phase before the start of H1N1/2009. Methods The study relied on the Systemic Rapid Assessment (SYSRA) toolkit, which evaluates priority disease programmes by taking into account the programmes, the general health system, and the wider socio-cultural and political context. The components under review were: external context; stewardship and organisational arrangements; financing, resource generation and allocation; healthcare provision; and information systems. Qualitative and quantitative data were collected in the second half of 2008 based on a review of published data and interviews with key informants, exploring past and current patterns of health programme and pandemic response. Results The study shows that health systems in the six countries varied in regard to the epidemiological context, health care financing, and health service provision patterns. For pandemic preparation, all six countries have developed national governance on pandemic preparedness as well as national pandemic influenza preparedness plans and Avian and Human Influenza (AHI) response plans. However, the governance arrangements and the nature of the plans differed. In the five developing countries, the focus was on surveillance and rapid containment of poultry related transmission while preparation for later pandemic stages was limited. The interfaces and linkages between health system contexts and pandemic preparedness programmes in these countries were explored. Conclusion Health system context influences how the six countries have been preparing themselves for a pandemic. At the same time, investment in pandemic preparation in the six Asian countries has contributed to improvement in health system surveillance, laboratory capacity, monitoring and evaluation and public communications. A number of suggestions for improvement were presented to strengthen the pandemic preparation and mitigation as well as to overcome some of the underlying health system constraints. PMID:20529345

An operational epidemiological model for calibrating agent-based simulations of pandemic influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Prieto, D; Das, T K

2016-03-01

Uncertainty of pandemic influenza viruses continue to cause major preparedness challenges for public health policymakers. Decisions to mitigate influenza outbreaks often involve tradeoff between the social costs of interventions (e.g., school closure) and the cost of uncontrolled spread of the virus. To achieve a balance, policymakers must assess the impact of mitigation strategies once an outbreak begins and the virus characteristics are known. Agent-based (AB) simulation is a useful tool for building highly granular disease spread models incorporating the epidemiological features of the virus as well as the demographic and social behavioral attributes of tens of millions of affected people. Such disease spread models provide excellent basis on which various mitigation strategies can be tested, before they are adopted and implemented by the policymakers. However, to serve as a testbed for the mitigation strategies, the AB simulation models must be operational. A critical requirement for operational AB models is that they are amenable for quick and simple calibration. The calibration process works as follows: the AB model accepts information available from the field and uses those to update its parameters such that some of its outputs in turn replicate the field data. In this paper, we present our epidemiological model based calibration methodology that has a low computational complexity and is easy to interpret. Our model accepts a field estimate of the basic reproduction number, and then uses it to update (calibrate) the infection probabilities in a way that its effect combined with the effects of the given virus epidemiology, demographics, and social behavior results in an infection pattern yielding a similar value of the basic reproduction number. We evaluate the accuracy of the calibration methodology by applying it for an AB simulation model mimicking a regional outbreak in the US. The calibrated model is shown to yield infection patterns closely replicating the input estimates of the basic reproduction number. The calibration method is also tested to replicate an initial infection incidence trend for a H1N1 outbreak like that of 2009.

"With human health it's a global thing": Canadian perspectives on ethics in the global governance of an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Thompson, Alison K; Smith, Maxwell J; McDougall, Christopher W; Bensimon, Cécile; Perez, Daniel Felipe

2015-03-01

We live in an era where our health is linked to that of others across the globe, and nothing brings this home better than the specter of a pandemic. This paper explores the findings of town hall meetings associated with the Canadian Program of Research on Ethics in a Pandemic (CanPREP), in which focus groups met to discuss issues related to the global governance of an influenza pandemic. Two competing discourses were found to be at work: the first was based upon an economic rationality and the second upon a humanitarian rationality. The implications for public support and the long-term sustainability of new global norms, networks, and regulations in global public health are discussed.

Pandemic risk prevention in European countries: role of the ECDC in preparing for pandemics. Development and experience with a national self-assessment procedure, 2005-2008.

PubMed

Nicoll, A

2010-12-01

To be effective risk prevention work takes place well before pandemics through the three Ps: Planning, Preparedness and Practise. Between 2005 and 2008 the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) worked with the European Commission (EC) and the WHO Regional Office for Europe (WHO-Euro) to assist European countries in preparing themselves for a future influenza pandemic. All eligible countries in the European Union and European Economic Area participated with energy and commitment. Indicators of preparedness were developed based on WHO planning guidance and these were set within a simple assessment which included a formal country visit. The procedure evolved considerably with field experience. As the complexity of pandemic preparedness was appreciated it changed from being a classical short external assessment to longer national self-assessments with demonstrable impact, especially when self-assessments were published. There were essential supporting activities undertaken including a series of pan-European pandemic preparedness workshops organised by EC, WHO-Euro, ECDC and countries holding the European Union Presidency. The self-assessments highlighted additional work and documentation that was needed by national authorities from the ECDC. This work was undertaken and the document produced. The benefits of the self-assessments were seen in the 2009 pandemic in that EU/EEA countries performed better than some others. A number of the guidance documents were updated to fit the specific features of the pandemic. However the pandemic revealed many weaknesses and brought new challenges for European countries, notably over communication and vaccines, the need to prepare for a variety of scenarios and to factor severity estimates into preparedness, to improve surveillance for severe disease and to deliver seroepidemiology. Any revised self-assessment procedure will need to respond to these challenges.

H5N1 vaccines in humans

PubMed Central

Baz, Mariana; Luke, Catherine J; Cheng, Xing; Jin, Hong; Subbarao, Kanta

2013-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses since 1997 and their virulence for poultry and humans has raised concerns about their potential to cause an influenza pandemic. Vaccines offer the most viable means to combat a pandemic threat. However, it will be a challenge to produce, distribute and implement a new vaccine if a pandemic spreads rapidly. Therefore, efforts are being undertaken to develop pandemic vaccines that use less antigen and induce cross-protective and long-lasting responses, that can be administered as soon as a pandemic is declared or possibly even before, in order to prime the population and allow for a rapid and protective antibody response. In the last few years, several vaccine manufacturers have developed candidate pandemic and pre-pandemic vaccines, based on reverse genetics and have improved the immunogenicity by formulating these vaccines with different adjuvants. Some of the important and consistent observations from clinical studies with H5N1 vaccines are as follows: two doses of inactivated vaccine are generally necessary to elicit the level of immunity required to meet licensure criteria, less antigen can be used if an oil-in-water adjuvant is included, in general antibody titers decline rapidly but can be boosted with additional doses of vaccine and if high titers of antibody are elicited, cross-reactivity against other clades is observed. Prime-boost strategies elicit a more robust immune response. In this review, we discuss data from clinical trials with a variety of H5N1 influenza vaccines. We also describe studies conducted in animal models to explore the possibility of reassortment between pandemic live attenuated vaccine candidates and seasonal influenza viruses, since this is an important consideration for the use of live vaccines in a pandemic setting. PMID:23726847

Pandemic Diseases and the Aviation Network SARS, a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufnagel, Lars; Brockmann, Dirk; Geisel, Theo

2005-03-01

We investigate the mechanisms of the worldwide spread of infectious diseases in a modern world in which humans travel on all scales. We introduce a probabilistic model which accounts for the worldwide spread of infectious diseases on the global aviation network. The analysis indicates that a forecast of the geographical spread of an epidemic is indeed possible, provided that local dynamical parameters of the disease such as the basic reproduction number are known. The model consists of local stochastic infection dynamics and stochastic transport of individuals on the worldwide aviation network which takes into account over 95% of the entire the national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the SARS outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. Despite the fact that the system is stochastic with a high number of degrees of freedom the outcome of a single simulation exhibits only a small magnitude of variability. We show that this is due to the strong heterogeneity of the network ranging from a few two over 25,000 passengers between nodes of the network. Thus, we propose that our model can be employed to predict the worldwide spread of future pandemic diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. Based on the connectivity of the aviation network we evaluate the performance of different control strategies and show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibit the global spread of infectious diseases.

Pandemic recovery analysis using the dynamic inoperability input-output model.

PubMed

Santos, Joost R; Orsi, Mark J; Bond, Erik J

2009-12-01

Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model((1,2)) and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).((3)) These models introduced sector inoperability, or the inability to satisfy as-planned production levels, into input-output modeling. While these models provide insights for understanding the impacts of inoperability, there are several aspects of the current formulation that do not account for complexities associated with certain disasters, such as a pandemic. This article proposes further enhancements to the DIIM to account for economic productivity losses resulting primarily from workforce disruptions. A pandemic is a unique disaster because the majority of its direct impacts are workforce related. The article develops a modeling framework to account for workforce inoperability and recovery factors. The proposed workforce-explicit enhancements to the DIIM are demonstrated in a case study to simulate a pandemic scenario in the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions to Reduce Transmission of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (pH1N1) in Pennsylvania Public Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Jeffrey R.; Short, Vanessa L.; Wu, Henry M.; Waller, Kirsten; Mead, Paul; Kahn, Emily; Bahn, Beth A; Dale, Jon W.; Nasrullah, Muazzam; Walton, Sabrina E.; Urdaneta, Veronica; Ostroff, Stephen; Averhoff, Francisco

2013-01-01

Background: School-based recommendations for nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were issued in response to the threat of 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1). The implementation and effectiveness of these recommendations has not been assessed. Methods: In November 2009, a Web-based survey of all Pennsylvania public schools was conducted to assess…

Age-specific excess mortality patterns and transmissibility during the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic in Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Ramiro, Diego; Garcia, Sara; Casado, Yolanda; Cilek, Laura; Chowell, Gerardo

2018-05-01

Although the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic was one of the most important epidemic events of the 19th century, little is known about the mortality impact of this pandemic based on detailed respiratory mortality data sets. We estimated excess mortality rates for the 1889-1890 pandemic in Madrid from high-resolution respiratory and all-cause individual-level mortality data retrieved from the Gazeta de Madrid, the Official Bulletin of the Spanish government. We also generated estimates of the reproduction number from the early growth phase of the pandemic. The main pandemic wave in Madrid was evident from respiratory and all-cause mortality rates during the winter of 1889-1890. Our estimates of excess mortality for this pandemic were 58.3 per 10,000 for all-cause mortality and 44.5 per 10,000 for respiratory mortality. Age-specific excess mortality rates displayed a J-shape pattern, with school children aged 5-14 years experiencing the lowest respiratory excess death rates (8.8 excess respiratory deaths per 10,000), whereas older populations aged greater than or equal to 70 years had the highest rates (367.9 per 10,000). Although seniors experienced the highest absolute excess death rates, the standardized mortality ratio was highest among young adults aged 15-24 years. The early growth phase of the pandemic displayed dynamics consistent with an exponentially growing transmission process. Using the generalized-growth method, we estimated the reproduction number in the range of 1.2-1.3 assuming a 3-day mean generation interval and of 1.3-1.5 assuming a 4-day mean generation interval. Our study adds to our understanding of the mortality impact and transmissibility of the 1889-1890 influenza pandemic using detailed individual-level mortality data sets. More quantitative studies are needed to quantify the variability of the mortality impact of this understudied pandemic at regional and global scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest.

PubMed

Shim, Eunha; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Galvani, Alison P

2011-02-25

Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing H1N1 infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To reduce transmission and achieve herd immunity during the initial 2009-2010 pandemic season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that initial priority for H1N1 vaccines be given to individuals under age 25, as these individuals are more likely to spread influenza than older adults. However, due to significant delay in vaccine delivery for the H1N1 influenza pandemic, a large fraction of population was exposed to the H1N1 virus and thereby obtained immunity prior to the wide availability of vaccines. This exposure affects the spread of the disease and needs to be considered when prioritizing vaccine distribution. To determine optimal H1N1 vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest versus population interest, we constructed a game theoretical age-structured model of influenza transmission and considered the impact of delayed vaccination. Our results indicate that if individuals decide to vaccinate according to self-interest, the resulting optimal vaccination strategy would prioritize adults of age 25 to 49 followed by either preschool-age children before the pandemic peak or older adults (age 50-64) at the pandemic peak. In contrast, the vaccine allocation strategy that is optimal for the population as a whole would prioritize individuals of ages 5 to 64 to curb a growing pandemic regardless of the timing of the vaccination program. Our results indicate that for a delayed vaccine distribution, the priorities that are optimal at a population level do not align with those that are optimal according to individual self-interest. Moreover, the discordance between the optimal vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest and those based on population interest is even more pronounced when vaccine availability is delayed. To determine optimal vaccine allocation for pandemic influenza, public health agencies need to consider both the changes in infection risks among age groups and expected patterns of adherence.

Epidemiological Characteristics of 2009 (H1N1) Pandemic Influenza Based on Paired Sera from a Longitudinal Community Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Riley, Steven; Kwok, Kin O.; Wu, Kendra M.; Ning, Danny Y.; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Wu, Joseph T.; Ho, Lai-Ming; Tsang, Thomas; Lo, Su-Vui; Chu, Daniel K. W.; Ma, Edward S. K.; Peiris, J. S. Malik

2011-01-01

Background While patterns of incidence of clinical influenza have been well described, much uncertainty remains over patterns of incidence of infection. The 2009 pandemic provided both the motivation and opportunity to investigate patterns of mild and asymptomatic infection using serological techniques. However, to date, only broad epidemiological patterns have been defined, based on largely cross-sectional study designs with convenience sampling frameworks. Methods and Findings We conducted a paired serological survey of a cohort of households in Hong Kong, recruited using random digit dialing, and gathered data on severe confirmed cases from the public hospital system (>90% inpatient days). Paired sera were obtained from 770 individuals, aged 3 to 103, along with detailed individual-level and household-level risk factors for infection. Also, we extrapolated beyond the period of our study using time series of severe cases and we simulated alternate study designs using epidemiological parameters obtained from our data. Rates of infection during the period of our study decreased substantially with age: for 3–19 years, the attack rate was 39% (31%–49%); 20–39 years, 8.9% (5.3%–14.7%); 40–59 years, 5.3% (3.5%–8.0%); and 60 years or older, 0.77% (0.18%–4.2%). We estimated parameters for a parsimonious model of infection in which a linear age term and the presence of a child in the household were used to predict the log odds of infection. Patterns of symptom reporting suggested that children experienced symptoms more often than adults. The overall rate of confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (H1N1pdm) deaths was 7.6 (6.2–9.5) per 100,000 infections. However, there was substantial and progressive increase in deaths per 100,000 infections with increasing age from 0.66 (0.65–0.86) for 3–19 years up to 220 (50–4,000) for 60 years and older. Extrapolating beyond the period of our study using rates of severe disease, we estimated that 56% (43%–69%) of 3–19 year olds and 16% (13%–18%) of people overall were infected by the pandemic strain up to the end of January 2010. Using simulation, we found that, during 2009, larger cohorts with shorter follow-up times could have rapidly provided similar data to those presented here. Conclusions Should H1N1pdm evolve to be more infectious in older adults, average rates of severe disease per infection could be higher in future waves: measuring such changes in severity requires studies similar to that described here. The benefit of effective vaccination against H1N1pdm infection is likely to be substantial for older individuals. Revised pandemic influenza preparedness plans should include prospective serological cohort studies. Many individuals, of all ages, remained susceptible to H1N1pdm after the main 2009 wave in Hong Kong. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21713000

Exploring national surveillance for health-related workplace absenteeism: lessons learned from the 2009 influenza A pandemic.

PubMed

Groenewold, Matthew R; Konicki, Doris L; Luckhaupt, Sara E; Gomaa, Ahmed; Koonin, Lisa M

2013-04-01

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did a pilot study to test the feasibility of using national surveillance of workplace absenteeism to assess the pandemic's impact on the workplace to plan for preparedness and continuity of operations and to contribute to health awareness during the emergency response. Population-based and sentinel worksite approaches were used. Monthly measures of the 1-week prevalence of health-related absenteeism among full-time workers were estimated using nationally representative data from the Current Population Survey. Enhanced passive surveillance of absenteeism was conducted using weekly data from a convenience sample of sentinel worksites. Nationally, the pandemic's impact on workplace absenteeism was small. Estimates of 1-week absenteeism prevalence did not exceed 3.7%. However, peak workplace absenteeism was correlated with the highest occurrence of both influenza-like illness and influenza-positive laboratory tests. Systems for monitoring workplace absenteeism should be included in pandemic preparedness planning.

Pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating an influenza pandemic: modeling the risks and health-economic impacts.

PubMed

Postma, Maarten J; Milne, George; Nelson, E Anthony S; Pyenson, Bruce; Basili, Marcello; Coker, Richard; Oxford, John; Garrison, Louis P

2010-12-01

Model-based analyses built on burden-of-disease and cost-effectiveness theory predict that pharmaceutical interventions may efficiently mitigate both the epidemiologic and economic impact of an influenza pandemic. Pharmaceutical interventions typically encompass the application of (pre)pandemic influenza vaccines, other vaccines (notably pneumococcal), antiviral treatments and other drug treatment (e.g., antibiotics to target potential complications of influenza). However, these models may be too limited to capture the full macro-economic impact of pandemic influenza. The aim of this article is to summarize current health-economic modeling approaches to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, and to compare these with more recently proposed alternative methods. We conclude that it is useful, particularly for policy and planning purposes, to extend modeling concepts through the application of alternative approaches, including insurers' risk theories, human capital approaches and sectoral and full macro-economic modeling. This article builds on a roundtable meeting of the Pandemic Influenza Economic Impact Group that was held in Boston, MA, USA, in December 2008.

Using surveillance data to estimate pandemic vaccine effectiveness against laboratory confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 infection: two case-control studies, Spain, season 2009-2010

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Physicians of the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System report and systematically swab patients attended to their practices for influenza-like illness (ILI). Within the surveillance system, some Spanish regions also participated in an observational study aiming at estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (cycEVA study). During the season 2009-2010, we estimated pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness using both the influenza surveillance data and the cycEVA study. Methods We conducted two case-control studies using the test-negative design, between weeks 48/2009 and 8/2010 of the pandemic season. The surveillance-based study included all swabbed patients in the sentinel surveillance system. The cycEVA study included swabbed patients from seven Spanish regions. Cases were laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza A(H1N1)2009. Controls were ILI patients testing negative for any type of influenza. Variables collected in both studies included demographic data, vaccination status, laboratory results, chronic conditions, and pregnancy. Additionally, cycEVA questionnaire collected data on previous influenza vaccination, smoking, functional status, hospitalisations, visits to the general practitioners, and obesity. We used logistic regression to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR), computing pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness as (1-OR)*100. Results We included 331 cases and 995 controls in the surveillance-based study and 85 cases and 351 controls in the cycEVA study. We detected nine (2.7%) and two (2.4%) vaccine failures in the surveillance-based and cycEVA studies, respectively. Adjusting for variables collected in surveillance database and swabbing month, pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness was 62% (95% confidence interval (CI): -5; 87). The cycEVA vaccine effectiveness was 64% (95%CI: -225; 96) when adjusting for common variables with the surveillance system and 75% (95%CI: -293; 98) adjusting for all variables collected. Conclusion Point estimates of the pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness suggested a protective effect of the pandemic vaccine against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)2009 in the season 2009-2010. Both studies were limited by the low vaccine coverage and the late start of the vaccination campaign. Routine influenza surveillance provides reliable estimates and could be used for influenza vaccine effectiveness studies in future seasons taken into account the surveillance system limitations. PMID:22129083

The Modes of Evolutionary Emergence of Primal and Late Pandemic Influenza Virus Strains from Viral Reservoir in Animals: An Interdisciplinary Analysis

PubMed Central

Shoham, Dany

2011-01-01

Based on a wealth of recent findings, in conjunction with earliest chronologies pertaining to evolutionary emergences of ancestral RNA viruses, ducks, Influenzavirus A (assumingly within ducks), and hominids, as well as to the initial domestication of mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos), jungle fowl (Gallus gallus), wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo), wild boar (Sus scrofa), and wild horse (Equus ferus), presumed genesis modes of primordial pandemic influenza strains have multidisciplinarily been configured. The virological fundamentality of domestication and farming of those various avian and mammalian species has thereby been demonstrated and broadly elucidated, within distinctive coevolutionary paradigms. The mentioned viral genesis modes were then analyzed, compatibly with common denominators and flexibility that mark the geographic profile of the last 18 pandemic strains, which reputedly emerged since 1510, the antigenic profile of the last 10 pandemic strains since 1847, and the genomic profile of the last 5 pandemic strains since 1918, until present. Related ecophylogenetic and biogeographic aspects have been enlightened, alongside with the crucial role of spatial virus gene dissemination by avian hosts. A fairly coherent picture of primary and late evolutionary and genomic courses of pandemic strains has thus been attained, tentatively. Specific patterns underlying complexes prone to generate past and future pandemic strains from viral reservoir in animals are consequentially derived. PMID:23074663

Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet.

PubMed

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Shanks, G Dennis; Almeida, Francisco E A; Alonso, Wladimir J

2013-01-01

The naval experience with the 1918 pandemic during World War I remains underexplored despite its key role on the pandemic's global diffusion and the epidemiological interest of isolated and relatively homogeneous populations. The pandemic outbreak in the Brazilian naval fleet is of particular interest both because of its severity and the fact that it was the only Latin American military force deployed to war. To study the mortality patterns of the pandemic in the Brazilian fleet sent to patrol the West African coast in 1918. We investigated mortality across vessels, ranks, and occupations based on official population and mortality records from the Brazilian Navy Archives. The outbreak that swept this fleet included the highest influenza mortality rate on any naval ship reported to date. Nearly 10% of the crews died, with death rates reaching 13-14% on two destroyers. While overall mortality was lower for officers, stokers and engineer officers were significantly more likely to die from the pandemic, possibly due to the pulmonary damage from constant exposure to the smoke and coal dust from the boilers. The fatality patterns observed provide valuable data on the conditions that can exacerbate the impact of a pandemic. While the putative lack of exposure to a first pandemic wave may have played a role in the excessive mortality observed in this fleet, our results indicate that strenuous labor conditions, dehydration, and exposure to coal dust were major risk factors. The unequal death rates among vessels remain an open question. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Protecting vulnerable populations from pandemic influenza in the United States: a strategic imperative.

PubMed

Hutchins, Sonja S; Truman, Benedict I; Merlin, Toby L; Redd, Stephen C

2009-10-01

Protecting vulnerable populations from pandemic influenza is a strategic imperative. The US national strategy for pandemic influenza preparedness and response assigns roles to governments, businesses, civic and community-based organizations, individuals, and families. Because influenza is highly contagious, inadequate preparedness or untimely response in vulnerable populations increases the risk of infection for the general population. Recent public health emergencies have reinforced the importance of preparedness and the challenges of effective response among vulnerable populations. We explore definitions and determinants of vulnerable, at-risk, and special populations and highlight approaches for ensuring that pandemic influenza preparedness includes these populations and enables them to respond appropriately. We also provide an overview of population-specific and cross-cutting articles in this theme issue on influenza preparedness for vulnerable populations.

Protecting Vulnerable Populations From Pandemic Influenza in the United States: A Strategic Imperative

PubMed Central

Truman, Benedict I.; Merlin, Toby L.; Redd, Stephen C.

2009-01-01

Protecting vulnerable populations from pandemic influenza is a strategic imperative. The US national strategy for pandemic influenza preparedness and response assigns roles to governments, businesses, civic and community-based organizations, individuals, and families. Because influenza is highly contagious, inadequate preparedness or untimely response in vulnerable populations increases the risk of infection for the general population. Recent public health emergencies have reinforced the importance of preparedness and the challenges of effective response among vulnerable populations. We explore definitions and determinants of vulnerable, at-risk, and special populations and highlight approaches for ensuring that pandemic influenza preparedness includes these populations and enables them to respond appropriately. We also provide an overview of population-specific and cross-cutting articles in this theme issue on influenza preparedness for vulnerable populations. PMID:19797737

Origin and Evolution of the Kiwifruit Canker Pandemic

PubMed Central

Li, Li; Liu, Yifei; Li, Dawei; Pan, Hui; Zhong, Caihong; Rikkerink, Erik H.A.; Templeton, Matthew D.; Straub, Christina; Colombi, Elena

2017-01-01

Recurring epidemics of kiwifruit (Actinidia spp.) bleeding canker disease are caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa). In order to strengthen understanding of population structure, phylogeography, and evolutionary dynamics, we isolated Pseudomonas from cultivated and wild kiwifruit across six provinces in China. Based on the analysis of 80 sequenced Psa genomes, we show that China is the origin of the pandemic lineage but that strain diversity in China is confined to just a single clade. In contrast, Korea and Japan harbor strains from multiple clades. Distinct independent transmission events marked introduction of the pandemic lineage into New Zealand, Chile, Europe, Korea, and Japan. Despite high similarity within the core genome and minimal impact of within-clade recombination, we observed extensive variation even within the single clade from which the global pandemic arose. PMID:28369338

A possible application of care-based ethics to people with disabilities during a pandemic.

PubMed

Howe, Edmund G

2010-01-01

Should people with exceptionally profound disabilities be given an equal chance of surviving a pandemic, even when their care might require a greater use of limited medical resources? How might an ethics of care be used to shape a policy regarding these patients?

Knowledge about Pandemic Influenza in Healthcare and Non-Healthcare Students in London

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purssell, Edward; While, Alison

2011-01-01

Objective: To investigate the knowledge of university students regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza. Design: Online questionnaire-based survey of undergraduate and postgraduate students, including those on nursing, medical, other health and non-health related courses. Method: The sample was recruited using the university email system, and the…

Public Health Control Measures in Response to Global Pandemics and Drug Resistance.

PubMed

Price, Polly J

2015-01-01

These teaching materials provide problem-based exercises exploring the specific powers of governments to implement control measures in response to communicable disease. Topics include global pandemic disease and, in the United States, legal issues in tuberculosis control. © 2015 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

School-Based Influenza Vaccination: Health and Economic Impact of Maine's 2009 Influenza Vaccination Program.

PubMed

Basurto-Dávila, Ricardo; Meltzer, Martin I; Mills, Dora A; Beeler Asay, Garrett R; Cho, Bo-Hyun; Graitcer, Samuel B; Dube, Nancy L; Thompson, Mark G; Patel, Suchita A; Peasah, Samuel K; Ferdinands, Jill M; Gargiullo, Paul; Messonnier, Mark; Shay, David K

2017-12-01

To estimate the societal economic and health impacts of Maine's school-based influenza vaccination (SIV) program during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic. Primary and secondary data covering the 2008-09 and 2009-10 influenza seasons. We estimated weekly monovalent influenza vaccine uptake in Maine and 15 other states, using difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis to assess the program's impact on immunization among six age groups. We also developed a health and economic Markov microsimulation model and conducted Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. We used national survey data to estimate the impact of the SIV program on vaccine coverage. We used primary data and published studies to develop the microsimulation model. The program was associated with higher immunization among children and lower immunization among adults aged 18-49 years and 65 and older. The program prevented 4,600 influenza infections and generated $4.9 million in net economic benefits. Cost savings from lower adult vaccination accounted for 54 percent of the economic gain. Economic benefits were positive in 98 percent of Monte Carlo simulations. SIV may be a cost-beneficial approach to increase immunization during pandemics, but programs should be designed to prevent lower immunization among nontargeted groups. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Characterizing hospital workers' willingness to report to duty in an influenza pandemic through threat- and efficacy-based assessment.

PubMed

Balicer, Ran D; Barnett, Daniel J; Thompson, Carol B; Hsu, Edbert B; Catlett, Christina L; Watson, Christopher M; Semon, Natalie L; Gwon, Howard S; Links, Jonathan M

2010-07-26

Hospital-based providers' willingness to report to work during an influenza pandemic is a critical yet under-studied phenomenon. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has been shown to be useful for understanding adaptive behavior of public health workers to an unknown risk, and thus offers a framework for examining scenario-specific willingness to respond among hospital staff. We administered an anonymous online EPPM-based survey about attitudes/beliefs toward emergency response, to all 18,612 employees of the Johns Hopkins Hospital from January to March 2009. Surveys were completed by 3426 employees (18.4%), approximately one third of whom were health professionals. Demographic and professional distribution of respondents was similar to all hospital staff. Overall, more than one-in-four (28%) hospital workers indicated they were not willing to respond to an influenza pandemic scenario if asked but not required to do so. Only an additional 10% were willing if required. One-third (32%) of participants reported they would be unwilling to respond in the event of a more severe pandemic influenza scenario. These response rates were consistent across different departments, and were one-third lower among nurses as compared with physicians. Respondents who were hesitant to agree to work additional hours when required were 17 times less likely to respond during a pandemic if asked. Sixty percent of the workers perceived their peers as likely to report to work in such an emergency, and were ten times more likely than others to do so themselves. Hospital employees with a perception of high efficacy had 5.8 times higher declared rates of willingness to respond to an influenza pandemic. Significant gaps exist in hospital workers' willingness to respond, and the EPPM is a useful framework to assess these gaps. Several attitudinal indicators can help to identify hospital employees unlikely to respond. The findings point to certain hospital-based communication and training strategies to boost employees' response willingness, including promoting pre-event plans for home-based dependents; ensuring adequate supplies of personal protective equipment, vaccines and antiviral drugs for all hospital employees; and establishing a subjective norm of awareness and preparedness.

A model for HIV/AIDS pandemic with optimal control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sule, Amiru; Abdullah, Farah Aini

2015-05-01

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is pandemic. It has affected nearly 60 million people since the detection of the disease in 1981 to date. In this paper basic deterministic HIV/AIDS model with mass action incidence function are developed. Stability analysis is carried out. And the disease free equilibrium of the basic model was found to be locally asymptotically stable whenever the threshold parameter (RO) value is less than one, and unstable otherwise. The model is extended by introducing two optimal control strategies namely, CD4 counts and treatment for the infective using optimal control theory. Numerical simulation was carried out in order to illustrate the analytic results.

Reorganising the pandemic triage processes to ethically maximise individuals' best interests.

PubMed

Tillyard, Andrew

2010-11-01

To provide a revised definition, process and purpose of triage to maximise the number of patients receiving intensive care during a crisis. Based on the ethical principle of virtue ethics and the underlying goal of providing individual patients with treatment according to their best interests, the methodology of triage is reassessed and revised. The decision making processes regarding treatment decisions during a pandemic are redefined and new methods of intensive care provision recommended as well as recommending the use of a 'ranking' system for patients excluded from intensive care, defining the role of non-intensive care specialists, and applying two types of triage as 'organisational triage' and 'treatment triage' based on the demand for intensive care. Using a different underlying ethical basis upon which to plan for a pandemic crisis could maximise the number of patients receiving intensive care based on individual patients' best interests.

Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet

PubMed Central

Schuck‐Paim, Cynthia; Shanks, G. Dennis; Almeida, Francisco E. A.; Alonso, Wladimir J.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Schuck‐Paim et al. (2012) Exceptionally high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic in the Brazilian naval fleet. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/j.1750‐2659.2012.00341.x. Background  The naval experience with the 1918 pandemic during World War I remains underexplored despite its key role on the pandemic’s global diffusion and the epidemiological interest of isolated and relatively homogeneous populations. The pandemic outbreak in the Brazilian naval fleet is of particular interest both because of its severity and the fact that it was the only Latin American military force deployed to war. Objectives  To study the mortality patterns of the pandemic in the Brazilian fleet sent to patrol the West African coast in 1918. Method  We investigated mortality across vessels, ranks, and occupations based on official population and mortality records from the Brazilian Navy Archives. Results  The outbreak that swept this fleet included the highest influenza mortality rate on any naval ship reported to date. Nearly 10% of the crews died, with death rates reaching 13–14% on two destroyers. While overall mortality was lower for officers, stokers and engineer officers were significantly more likely to die from the pandemic, possibly due to the pulmonary damage from constant exposure to the smoke and coal dust from the boilers. Conclusions  The fatality patterns observed provide valuable data on the conditions that can exacerbate the impact of a pandemic. While the putative lack of exposure to a first pandemic wave may have played a role in the excessive mortality observed in this fleet, our results indicate that strenuous labor conditions, dehydration, and exposure to coal dust were major risk factors. The unequal death rates among vessels remain an open question. PMID:22336427

The potential impact of the next influenza pandemic on a national primary care medical workforce.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Baker, Michael; Crampton, Peter; Mansoor, Osman

2005-08-11

Another influenza pandemic is all but inevitable. We estimated its potential impact on the primary care medical workforce in New Zealand, so that planning could mitigate the disruption from the pandemic and similar challenges. The model in the "FluAid" software (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, CDC, Atlanta) was applied to the New Zealand primary care medical workforce (i.e., general practitioners). At its peak (week 4) the pandemic would lead to 1.2% to 2.7% loss of medical work time, using conservative baseline assumptions. Most workdays (88%) would be lost due to illness, followed by hospitalisation (8%), and then premature death (4%). Inputs for a "more severe" scenario included greater health effects and time spent caring for sick relatives. For this scenario, 9% of medical workdays would be lost in the peak week, and 3% over a more compressed six-week period of the first pandemic wave. As with the base case, most (64%) of lost workdays would be due to illness, followed by caring for others (31%), hospitalisation (4%), and then premature death (1%). Preparedness planning for future influenza pandemics must consider the impact on this medical workforce and incorporate strategies to minimise this impact, including infection control measures, well-designed protocols, and improved health sector surge capacity.

Biochemical fingerprinting of Vibrio parahaemolyticus by the PhenePlate system: comparison between pandemic and non-pandemic serotypes.

PubMed

Rahman, Mokhlasur; Bhuiyan, N A; Kuhn, I; Ramamurthy, T; Rahman, M; Mollby, R; Nair, G Balakrish

2006-10-01

During recent years a pandemic clone of Vibrio parahaemolyticus has emerged. Isolates of this clone are distributed among several serotypes, but are genotypically related. In the present study, a phenotyping method (biochemical fingerprinting) was used to characterize pandemic and non-pandemic isolates belonging to V. parahaemolyticus. It was found that the pandemic isolates showed a high level of phenotypic homogeneity and a majority of the pandemic isolates belonged to the same biochemical phenotype, whereas non-pandemic V. parahemolyticus isolates were more heterogeneous. In conclusion, biochemical fingerprinting of V. parahaemolyticus can be used as a first screening method to differentiate between pandemic and non-pandemic isolates of V. parahaemolyticus.

Mathematical assessment of Canada's pandemic influenza preparedness plan.

PubMed

Gumel, Abba B; Nuño, Miriam; Chowell, Gerardo

2008-03-01

The presence of the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus in wild bird populations in several regions of the world, together with recurrent cases of H5N1 influenza arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, have highlighted the urgent need for prepared-ness and coordinated global strategies to effectively combat a potential influenza pandemic. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the Canadian pandemic influenza preparedness plan. A mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of influenza was used to keep track of the population according to risk of infection (low or high) and infection status (susceptible, exposed or infectious). The model was parametrized using available Canadian demographic data. The model was then used to evaluate the key components outlined in the Canadian plan. The results indicated that the number of cases, mortalities and hospitalizations estimated in the Canadian plan may have been underestimated; the use of antivirals, administered therapeutically, prophylactically or both, is the most effective single intervention followed by the use of a vaccine and basic public health measures; and the combined use of pharmaceutical interventions (antivirals and vaccine) can dramatically minimize the burden of the pending influenza pandemic in Canada. Based on increasing concerns of Oseltamivir resistance (wide-scale implementation), coupled with the expected unavailability of a suitable vaccine during the early stages of a pandemic, the present study evaluated the potential impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) which were not emphasized in the current Canadian plan. To this end, the findings suggest that the use of NPIs can drastically reduce the burden of a pandemic in Canada. A deterministic model was designed and used to assess Canada's pandemic preparedness plan. The study showed that the estimates of pandemic influenza burden given in the Canada pandemic preparedness plan may be an underestimate, and that Canada needs to adopt NPIs to complement its preparedness plan.

Antibody Persistence in Adults Two Years after Vaccination with an H1N1 2009 Pandemic Influenza Virus-Like Particle Vaccine

PubMed Central

Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel; Núñez-Valencia, Adriana; Boscó-Gárate, Ilka; Lozano-Dubernard, Bernardo; Lara-Puente, Horacio; Espitia, Clara; Alpuche-Aranda, Celia; Bonifaz, Laura C.; Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

2016-01-01

The influenza virus is a human pathogen that causes epidemics every year, as well as potential pandemic outbreaks, as occurred in 2009. Vaccination has proven to be sufficient in the prevention and containment of viral spreading. In addition to the current egg-based vaccines, new and promising vaccine platforms, such as cell culture-derived vaccines that include virus-like particles (VLPs), have been developed. VLPs have been shown to be both safe and immunogenic against influenza infections. Although antibody persistence has been studied in traditional egg-based influenza vaccines, studies on antibody response durations induced by VLP influenza vaccines in humans are scarce. Here, we show that subjects vaccinated with an insect cell-derived VLP vaccine, in the midst of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic outbreak in Mexico City, showed antibody persistence up to 24 months post-vaccination. Additionally, we found that subjects that reported being revaccinated with a subsequent inactivated influenza virus vaccine showed higher antibody titres to the pandemic influenza virus than those who were not revaccinated. These findings provide insights into the duration of the antibody responses elicited by an insect cell-derived pandemic influenza VLP vaccine and the possible effects of subsequent influenza vaccination on antibody persistence induced by this VLP vaccine in humans. PMID:26919288

Public preferences for vaccination programmes during pandemics caused by pathogens transmitted through respiratory droplets - a discrete choice experiment in four European countries, 2013.

PubMed

Determann, Domino; Korfage, Ida J; Fagerlin, Angela; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Bliemer, Michiel C; Voeten, Helene A; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Lambooij, Mattijs S; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W

2016-06-02

This study aims to quantify and compare preferences of citizens from different European countries for vaccination programme characteristics during pandemics, caused by pathogens which are transmitted through respiratory droplets. Internet panel members, nationally representative based on age, sex, educational level and region, of four European Union Member States (Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden, n = 2,068) completed an online discrete choice experiment. These countries, from different geographical areas of Europe, were chosen because of the availability of high-quality Internet panels and because of the cooperation between members of the project entitled Effective Communication in Outbreak Management: development of an evidence-based tool for Europe (ECOM). Data were analysed using panel latent class regression models. In the case of a severe pandemic scenario, vaccine effectiveness was the most important characteristic determining vaccination preference in all countries, followed by the body that advises on vaccination. In Sweden, the advice of family and/or friends and the advice of physicians strongly affected vaccine preferences, in contrast to Poland and Spain, where the advice of (international) health authorities was more decisive. Irrespective of pandemic scenario or vaccination programme characteristics, the predicted vaccination uptakes were lowest in Sweden, and highest in Poland. To increase vaccination uptake during future pandemics, the responsible authorities should align with other important stakeholders in the country and communicate in a coordinated manner.

A new laboratory-based surveillance system (Respiratory DataMart System) for influenza and other respiratory viruses in England: results and experience from 2009 to 2012.

PubMed

Zhao, H; Green, H; Lackenby, A; Donati, M; Ellis, J; Thompson, C; Bermingham, A; Field, J; Sebastianpillai, P; Zambon, M; Watson, Jm; Pebody, R

2014-01-23

During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, a new laboratory-based virological sentinel surveillance system, the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS), was established in a network of 14 Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England (PHE)) and National Health Service (NHS) laboratories in England. Laboratory results (both positive and negative) were systematically collected from all routinely tested clinical respiratory samples for a range of respiratory viruses including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). The RDMS also monitored the occurrence of antiviral resistance of influenza viruses. Data from the RDMS for the 2009–2012 period showed that the 2009 pandemic influenza virus caused three waves of activity with different intensities during the pandemic and post pandemic periods. Peaks in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 positivity (defined as number of positive samples per total number of samples tested) were seen in summer and autumn in 2009, with slightly higher peak positivity observed in the first post-pandemic season in 2010/2011. The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain almost completely disappeared in the second postpandemic season in 2011/2012. The RDMS findings are consistent with other existing community-based virological and clinical surveillance systems. With a large sample size, this new system provides a robust supplementary mechanism, through the collection of routinely available laboratory data at minimum extra cost, to monitor influenza as well as other respiratory virus activity. A near real-time, daily reporting mechanism in the RDMS was established during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Furthermore, this system can be quickly adapted and used to monitor future influenza pandemics and other major outbreaks of respiratory infectious disease, including novel pathogens.

Acceptance of Vaccinations in Pandemic Outbreaks: A Discrete Choice Experiment

PubMed Central

Determann, Domino; Korfage, Ida J.; Lambooij, Mattijs S.; Bliemer, Michiel; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W.

2014-01-01

Background Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations. Methods In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make. Results All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents’ preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6–€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake. Conclusions We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents’ preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks. The preference heterogeneity shows that information regarding vaccination needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and willingness to get vaccinated. PMID:25057914

Acceptance of vaccinations in pandemic outbreaks: a discrete choice experiment.

PubMed

Determann, Domino; Korfage, Ida J; Lambooij, Mattijs S; Bliemer, Michiel; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Steyerberg, Ewout W; de Bekker-Grob, Esther W

2014-01-01

Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations. In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make. All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents' preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6-€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake. We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents' preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks. The preference heterogeneity shows that information regarding vaccination needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and willingness to get vaccinated.

Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1.

PubMed

Torun, Sebahat D; Torun, Fuat; Catak, Binali

2010-10-10

Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105) reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1%) of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic influenza vaccination is necessary. Efforts for orienting the HCWs to use evidence based scientific sources, rather than the media for information should be considered by the authorities.

Healthcare workers as parents: attitudes toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Both the health care workers (HCWs) and children are target groups for pandemic influenza vaccination. The coverage of the target populations is an important determinant for impact of mass vaccination. The objective of this study is to determine the attitudes of HCWs as parents, toward vaccinating their children with pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine. Methods A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with health care workers (HCWs) in a public hospital during December 2009 in Istanbul. All persons employed in the hospital with or without a health-care occupation are accepted as HCW. The HCWs who are parents of children 6 months to 18 years of age were included in the study. Pearson's chi-square test and logistic regression analysis was applied for the statistical analyses. Results A total of 389 HCWs who were parents of children aged 6 months-18 years participated study. Among all participants 27.0% (n = 105) reported that themselves had been vaccinated against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Two third (66.1%) of the parents answered that they will not vaccinate their children, 21.1% already vaccinated and 12.9% were still undecided. Concern about side effect was most reported reason among who had been not vaccinated their children and among undecided parents. The second reason for refusing the pandemic vaccine was concerns efficacy of the vaccine. Media was the only source of information about pandemic influenza in nearly one third of HCWs. Agreement with vaccine safety, self receipt of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine, and trust in Ministry of Health were found to be associated with the positive attitude toward vaccinating their children against pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Conclusions Persuading parents to accept a new vaccine seems not be easy even if they are HCWs. In order to overcome the barriers among HCWs related to pandemic vaccines, determination of their misinformation, attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic influenza vaccination is necessary. Efforts for orienting the HCWs to use evidence based scientific sources, rather than the media for information should be considered by the authorities. PMID:20932342

Swine influenza and vaccines: an alternative approach for decision making about pandemic prevention.

PubMed

Basili, Marcello; Ferrini, Silvia; Montomoli, Emanuele

2013-08-01

During the global pandemic of A/H1N1/California/07/2009 (A/H1N1/Cal) influenza, many governments signed contracts with vaccine producers for a universal influenza immunization program and bought hundreds of millions of vaccines doses. We argue that, as Health Ministers assumed the occurrence of the worst possible scenario (generalized pandemic influenza) and followed the strong version of the Precautionary Principle, they undervalued the possibility of mild or weak pandemic wave. An alternative decision rule, based on the non-extensive entropy principle, is introduced, and a different Precautionary Principle characterization is applied. This approach values extreme negative results (catastrophic events) in a different way and predicts more plausible and mild events. It introduces less pessimistic forecasts in the case of uncertain influenza pandemic outbreaks. A simplified application is presented using seasonal data of morbidity and severity among Italian children influenza-like illness for the period 2003-10. Established literature results predict an average attack rate of not less than 15% for the next pandemic influenza [Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: implications for setting priorities for interventions. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5:659-71; Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Implications for Setting Priorities for Intervention. Background paper. Atlanta, GA: CDC, 1999. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm (7 January 2011, date last accessed))]. The strong version of the Precautionary Principle would suggest using this prediction for vaccination campaigns. On the contrary, the non-extensive maximum entropy principle predicts a lower attack rate, which induces a 20% saving in public funding for vaccines doses. The need for an effective influenza pandemic prevention program, coupled with an efficient use of public funding, calls for a rethinking of the Precautionary Principle. The non-extensive maximum entropy principle, which incorporates vague and incomplete information available to decision makers, produces a more coherent forecast of possible influenza pandemic and a conservative spending in public funding.

A survey of pandemic influenza preparedness and response capabilities in Chicago area hospital security departments.

PubMed

Kimmerly, David P

2009-01-01

This article is a summary based on a December 2007 paper prepared by the author in partial fulfillment of the requirements for a master's degree in business and organizational security management at Webster University. The project described was intended to assess Chicago-area healthcare organization security departments' preparedness and response capabilities for a potential influenza pandemic. While the author says healthcare organizations are learning from the pandemics of the past, little research has been conducted on the requirements necessary within hospital security departments. The article explores staffing, planning, preparation and response capabilities within a healthcare security context to determine existing resources available to the healthcare security community. Eleven completed surveys were received from hospital security managers throughout the geographical Chicago area. They reveal that hospital security managers are conscious of the risks of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Yet, it was found that several gaps existed within hospital security department staffing and response capabilities, as hospital security departments may not have the available resources necessary to adequately maintain their operations during a pandemic incident.

Early Characterization of the Severity and Transmissibility of Pandemic Influenza Using Clinical Episode Data from Multiple Populations

PubMed Central

Riley, Pete; Ben-Nun, Michal; Linker, Jon A.; Cost, Angelia A.; Sanchez, Jose L.; George, Dylan; Bacon, David P.; Riley, Steven

2015-01-01

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R 0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion p C of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: p C, 0.0133–0.150 and R 0, 1.09–2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with p C approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R 0 and p C could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics. PMID:26402446

Productive confusions: learning from simulations of pandemic virus outbreaks in Second Life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cárdenas, Micha; Greci, Laura S.; Hurst, Samantha; Garman, Karen; Hoffman, Helene; Huang, Ricky; Gates, Michael; Kho, Kristen; Mehrmand, Elle; Porteous, Todd; Calvitti, Alan; Higginbotham, Erin; Agha, Zia

2011-03-01

Users of immersive virtual reality environments have reported a wide variety of side and after effects including the confusion of characteristics of the real and virtual worlds. Perhaps this side effect of confusing the virtual and real can be turned around to explore the possibilities for immersion with minimal technological support in virtual world group training simulations. This paper will describe observations from my time working as an artist/researcher with the UCSD School of Medicine (SoM) and Veterans Administration San Diego Healthcare System (VASDHS) to develop trainings for nurses, doctors and Hospital Incident Command staff that simulate pandemic virus outbreaks. By examining moments of slippage between realities, both into and out of the virtual environment, moments of the confusion of boundaries between real and virtual, we can better understand methods for creating immersion. I will use the mixing of realities as a transversal line of inquiry, borrowing from virtual reality studies, game studies, and anthropological studies to better understand the mechanisms of immersion in virtual worlds. Focusing on drills conducted in Second Life, I will examine moments of training to learn the software interface, moments within the drill and interviews after the drill.

Public perceptions of pandemic influenza resource allocation: a deliberative forum using Grid/Group analysis.

PubMed

Docter, Stynke P; Street, Jackie; Braunack-Mayer, Annette J; van der Wilt, Gert-Jan

2011-08-01

The emergence of virulent avian influenza A subtypes with potential to evolve into novel human subtypes prompted directives from the World Health Organisation recommending that countries prepare for a pandemic. In response the Australian government developed the Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza (AHMPPI), which includes strategies to contain and/or manage a pandemic. To implement these strategies successfully, community compliance is necessary. Our qualitative study investigated, through a deliberative forum, the extent to which the antiviral drug and vaccine allocation of the AHMPPI corresponds with community views about the priority groups. We used Mary Douglas' Grid/Group analysis to analyse the results, which suggested that the AHMPPI's allocation strategy corresponds well with community views with both based on a hierarchical structure. There are some differences concerning community involvement in the decision process and information provision to the public, for which our study provides recommendations.

Hospital capacity and management preparedness for pandemic influenza in Victoria.

PubMed

Dewar, Ben; Barr, Ian; Robinson, Priscilla

2014-04-01

This study was designed to investigate acute hospital pandemic influenza preparedness in Victoria, Australia, particularly focussing on planning and management efforts. A prospective study was conducted by questionnaire and semi-structured interview of health managers across the Victorian hospital system from July to October 2011. Participants with responsibility for emergency management, planning and operations were selected from every hospital in Victoria with an emergency department to complete a questionnaire (response rate 22/43 = 51%). Each respondent was invited to participate in a phone-based semi-structured interview (response rate 11/22 = 50%). Rural/regional hospitals demonstrated higher levels of clinical (86%) and non-clinical (86%) staff contingency planning than metropolitan hospitals (60% and 40% respectively). Pandemic plans were not being sufficiently tested in exercises or drills, which is likely to undermine their effectiveness. All respondents reported hand hygiene and standard precautions programs in place, although only one-third (33%) of metropolitan respondents and no rural/regional respondents reported being able to meet patient needs with high levels of staff absenteeism. Almost half Victoria's healthcare workers were unvaccinated against influenza. Hospitals across Victoria demonstrated different levels of influenza pandemic preparedness and planning. If a more severe influenza pandemic than that of 2009 arose, Victorian hospitals would struggle with workforce and infrastructure problems, particularly in rural/regional areas. Staff absenteeism threatens to undermine hospital pandemic responses. Various strategies, including education and communication, should be included with in-service training to provide staff with confidence in their ability to work safely during a future pandemic. © 2014 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

HIV competition dynamics over sexual networks: first comer advantage conserves founder effects.

PubMed

Ferdinandy, Bence; Mones, Enys; Vicsek, Tamás; Müller, Viktor

2015-02-01

Outside Africa, the global phylogeography of HIV is characterized by compartmentalized local epidemics that are typically dominated by a single subtype, which indicates strong founder effects. We hypothesized that the competition of viral strains at the epidemic level may involve an advantage of the resident strain that was the first to colonize a population. Such an effect would slow down the invasion of new strains, and thus also the diversification of the epidemic. We developed a stochastic modelling framework to simulate HIV epidemics over dynamic contact networks. We simulated epidemics in which the second strain was introduced into a population where the first strain had established a steady-state epidemic, and assessed whether, and on what time scale, the second strain was able to spread in the population. Simulations were parameterized based on empirical data; we tested scenarios with varying levels of overall prevalence. The spread of the second strain occurred on a much slower time scale compared with the initial expansion of the first strain. With strains of equal transmission efficiency, the second strain was unable to invade on a time scale relevant for the history of the HIV pandemic. To become dominant over a time scale of decades, the second strain needed considerable (>25%) advantage in transmission efficiency over the resident strain. The inhibition effect was weaker if the second strain was introduced while the first strain was still in its growth phase. We also tested how possible mechanisms of interference (inhibition of superinfection, depletion of highly connected hubs in the network, one-time acute peak of infectiousness) contribute to the inhibition effect. Our simulations confirmed a strong first comer advantage in the competition dynamics of HIV at the population level, which may explain the global phylogeography of the virus and may influence the future evolution of the pandemic.

System-Level Planning, Coordination, and Communication

PubMed Central

Kanter, Robert K.; Dries, David; Luyckx, Valerie; Lim, Matthew L.; Wilgis, John; Anderson, Michael R.; Sarani, Babak; Hupert, Nathaniel; Mutter, Ryan; Devereaux, Asha V.; Christian, Michael D.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Christian, Michael D.; Devereaux, Asha V.; Dichter, Jeffrey R.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Rubinson, Lewis; Amundson, Dennis; Anderson, Michael R.; Balk, Robert; Barfield, Wanda D.; Bartz, Martha; Benditt, Josh; Beninati, William; Berkowitz, Kenneth A.; Daugherty Biddison, Lee; Braner, Dana; Branson, Richard D; Burkle, Frederick M.; Cairns, Bruce A.; Carr, Brendan G.; Courtney, Brooke; DeDecker, Lisa D.; De Jong, Marla J.; Dominguez-Cherit, Guillermo; Dries, David; Einav, Sharon; Erstad, Brian L.; Etienne, Mill; Fagbuyi, Daniel B.; Fang, Ray; Feldman, Henry; Garzon, Hernando; Geiling, James; Gomersall, Charles D.; Grissom, Colin K.; Hanfling, Dan; Hick, John L.; Hodge, James G.; Hupert, Nathaniel; Ingbar, David; Kanter, Robert K.; King, Mary A.; Kuhnley, Robert N.; Lawler, James; Leung, Sharon; Levy, Deborah A.; Lim, Matthew L.; Livinski, Alicia; Luyckx, Valerie; Marcozzi, David; Medina, Justine; Miramontes, David A.; Mutter, Ryan; Niven, Alexander S.; Penn, Matthew S.; Pepe, Paul E.; Powell, Tia; Prezant, David; Reed, Mary Jane; Rich, Preston; Rodriquez, Dario; Roxland, Beth E.; Sarani, Babak; Shah, Umair A.; Skippen, Peter; Sprung, Charles L.; Subbarao, Italo; Talmor, Daniel; Toner, Eric S.; Tosh, Pritish K.; Upperman, Jeffrey S.; Uyeki, Timothy M.; Weireter, Leonard J.; West, T. Eoin; Wilgis, John; Ornelas, Joe; McBride, Deborah; Reid, David; Baez, Amado; Baldisseri, Marie; Blumenstock, James S.; Cooper, Art; Ellender, Tim; Helminiak, Clare; Jimenez, Edgar; Krug, Steve; Lamana, Joe; Masur, Henry; Mathivha, L. Rudo; Osterholm, Michael T.; Reynolds, H. Neal; Sandrock, Christian; Sprecher, Armand; Tillyard, Andrew; White, Douglas; Wise, Robert; Yeskey, Kevin

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: System-level planning involves uniting hospitals and health systems, local/regional government agencies, emergency medical services, and other health-care entities involved in coordinating and enabling care in a major disaster. We reviewed the literature and sought expert opinions concerning system-level planning and engagement for mass critical care due to disasters or pandemics and offer suggestions for system-planning, coordination, communication, and response. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all of those involved in a pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. METHODS: The American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) consensus statement development process was followed in developing suggestions. Task Force members met in person to develop nine key questions believed to be most relevant for system-planning, coordination, and communication. A systematic literature review was then performed for relevant articles and documents, reports, and other publications reported since 1993. No studies of sufficient quality were identified upon which to make evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. RESULTS: Suggestions were developed and grouped according to the following thematic elements: (1) national government support of health-care coalitions/regional health authorities (HC/RHAs), (2) teamwork within HC/RHAs, (3) system-level communication, (4) system-level surge capacity and capability, (5) pediatric patients and special populations, (6) HC/RHAs and networks, (7) models of advanced regional care systems, and (8) the use of simulation for preparedness and planning. CONCLUSIONS: System-level planning is essential to provide care for large numbers of critically ill patients because of disaster or pandemic. It also entails a departure from the routine, independent system and involves all levels from health-care institutions to regional health authorities. National government support is critical, as are robust communication systems and advanced planning supported by realistic exercises. PMID:25144713

The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden.

PubMed

Holmberg, Martin

2017-09-01

Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the 'configuration' of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of 'pandemic' influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures-households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Pandemic influenza – including a risk assessment of H5N1

PubMed Central

Taubenberger, J.K.; Morens, D.M.

2009-01-01

Summary Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses. PMID:19618626

Pandemic influenza--including a risk assessment of H5N1.

PubMed

Taubenberger, J K; Morens, D M

2009-04-01

Influenza pandemics and epidemics have apparently occurred since at least the Middle Ages. When pandemics appear, 50% or more of an affected population can be infected in a single year, and the number of deaths caused by influenza can dramatically exceed what is normally expected. Since 1500, there appear to have been 13 or more influenza pandemics. In the past 120 years there were undoubted pandemics in 1889, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. Although most experts believe we will face another influenza pandemic, it is impossible to predict when it will appear, where it will originate, or how severe it will be. Nor is there agreement about the subtype of influenza virus most likely to cause the next pandemic. The continuing spread of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses has heightened interest in pandemic prediction. Despite uncertainties in the historical record of the pre-virology era, study of previous pandemics may help guide future pandemic planning and lead to a better understanding of the complex ecobiology underlying the formation of pandemic strains of influenza A viruses.

Retrospective multicenter matched case-control study on the risk factors for narcolepsy with special focus on vaccinations (including pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections in Germany.

PubMed

Oberle, Doris; Pavel, Jutta; Mayer, Geert; Geisler, Peter; Keller-Stanislawski, Brigitte

2017-06-01

Studies associate pandemic influenza vaccination with narcolepsy. In Germany, a retrospective, multicenter, matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors for narcolepsy, particularly regarding vaccinations (seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccination) and infections (seasonal and pandemic influenza) and to quantify the detected risks. Patients with excessive daytime sleepiness who had been referred to a sleep center between April 2009 and December 2012 for multiple sleep latency test (MSLT) were eligible. Case report forms were validated according to the criteria for narcolepsy defined by the Brighton Collaboration (BC). Confirmed cases of narcolepsy (BC level of diagnostic certainty 1-4a) were matched with population-based controls by year of birth, gender, and place of residence. A second control group was established including patients in whom narcolepsy was definitely excluded (test-negative controls). A total of 103 validated cases of narcolepsy were matched with 264 population-based controls. The second control group included 29 test-negative controls. A significantly increased odd ratio (OR) to develop narcolepsy (crude OR [cOR] = 3.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-8.5; adjusted OR [aOR] = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-9.9) was detected in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset as compared to nonvaccinated individuals. Using test-negative controls, in individuals immunized with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine prior to symptoms onset, a nonsignificantly increased OR of narcolepsy was detected when compared to nonvaccinated individuals (whole study population, BC levels 1-4a: cOR = 1.9, 95% CI = 0.5-6.9; aOR = 1.8, 95% CI = 0.3-10.1). The findings of this study support an increased risk for narcolepsy after immunization with pandemic influenza A/H1N1/v vaccine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On case-fatality rate: review and hypothesis.

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2012-07-01

The relationship between log cumulative number of patients (X) and that of deaths (Y) in an epidemic follows the equation logY = klogX - klogN(0), where k is a constant determining the slope and N(0) is the value of X when Y = 1. Diseases with k = 1 are Ebola hemorrhagic fever, avian influenza H5N1, cholera, and hand, foot, and mouth disease; those with k > 1 are the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in countries other than Mexico and the SARS epidemic in some countries; and those with k < 1 include the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in Mexico. Epidemics with k > 1 can be simulated by postulating two subpopulations (normal population [NP] and vulnerable population [VP]), where the epidemic proceeds at higher speed and at higher mortality in VP than in NP. Epidemics with k < 1 can be simulated by postulating coexisting high virulence virus (HVV) and low virulence virus (LVV), with the former being propagated at slower speed and with a higher mortality rate than the latter. An epidemic with k > 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of subpopulations NP or VP from the total population (f) and NP- or VP-specific patient multiplication (M) and mortality (D) rates. An epidemic with k < 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of HVV- or LVV-infected human populations (f), and HVV- or LVV-specific M and D.

The ghost of pandemics past: revisiting two centuries of influenza in Sweden

PubMed Central

Holmberg, Martin

2017-01-01

Previous influenza pandemics are usually invoked in pandemic preparedness planning without a thorough analysis of the events surrounding them, what has been called the ‘configuration’ of epidemics. Historic pandemics are instead used to contrast them to the novelty of the coming imagined plague or as fear of a ghost-like repetition of the past. This view of pandemics is guided by a biomedical framework that is ahistorical and reductionist. The meaning of ‘pandemic’ influenza is in fact highly ambiguous in its partitioning of pandemic and seasonal influenza. The past 200 years of influenza epidemics in Sweden are examined with a special focus on key social structures—households, schools, transportations and the military. These are shown to have influenced the progression of influenza pandemics. Prevailing beliefs around influenza pandemics have also profoundly influenced intervention strategies. Measuring long-term trends in pandemic severity is problematic because pandemics are non-linear events where the conditions surrounding them constantly change. However, in a linearised view, the Spanish flu can be seen to represent a historical turning point and the H1N1 2009 pandemic not as an outlier, but following a 100-year trend of decreasing severity. Integrating seasonal and pandemic influenza, and adopting an ecosocial stance can deepen our understanding and bring the ghost-like pandemic past to life. PMID:28855380

Registry-Based Surveillance of Influenza-Associated Hospitalisations during the 2009 Influenza Pandemic in Denmark: The Hidden Burden on the Young

PubMed Central

Widgren, Katarina; Nielsen, Jens; Mølbak, Kåre

2010-01-01

Background To follow the impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Denmark, influenza surveillance was extended with a system monitoring potentially influenza-associated hospitalisations. Methodology/Principal Findings National administrative data from 2004–2010 from the automatic reporting of all hospital visits and admissions in Denmark (population 5.5 million) were used. In-patient hospitalisations linked to ICD-10 codes for potentially influenza-associated conditions (influenza, viral and bacterial pneumonia, respiratory distress, and febrile convulsion) were aggregated by week and age groups; <5 years, 5–24 years, 25–64 years and ≥65 years. Weekly numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations were plotted to follow the course of the pandemic. We calculated the total numbers of influenza-associated hospitalisations in each influenza season (week 30 to week 15, the following year). Risk ratios of being admitted with an influenza-associated condition in this season (2009/2010) compared to the previous five seasons (2004/2005–2008/2009) were calculated using binary regression. During the pandemic season, influenza-associated hospitalisations peaked in week 47, 2009. The total number of influenza-associated hospitalisations was 38,273 compared to the median of previous seasons of 35,662 (p = 0.28). The risk ratio of influenza-associated hospitalisations during the pandemic season compared to previous seasons was 1.63 (95%CI 1.49–1.78) for 5–24 year-olds and ranged between 0.98 and 1.08 for the other three age groups. Conclusions The 2009 pandemic influenza did not lead to an overall increase in the number of influenza-associated hospitalisations in Denmark in the 2009/2010 season and could be managed within existing hospital capacity. However, there was a disproportionally large impact on the age group 5–24 years. The influenza-associated hospitalisations during the 2009/2010 pandemic influenza season bore the signature features of historical pandemics: A skewed age-pattern and early out of season transmission. PMID:21085646

Infant Respiratory Outcomes Associated with Prenatal Exposure to Maternal 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Vaccination.

PubMed

Fell, Deshayne B; Wilson, Kumanan; Ducharme, Robin; Hawken, Steven; Sprague, Ann E; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Smith, Graeme; Wen, Shi Wu; Walker, Mark C

2016-01-01

Infants are at high risk for influenza illness, but are ineligible for vaccination before 6 months. Transfer of maternal antibodies to the fetus has been demonstrated for 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic vaccines; however, clinical effectiveness is unknown. Our objective was to evaluate the association between 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic vaccination during pregnancy and rates of infant influenza and pneumonia. We linked a population-based birth cohort to administrative databases to measure rates of influenza and pneumonia diagnosed during ambulatory physician visits, hospitalizations and emergency department visits during one year of follow-up. We estimated incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) using Poisson regression, comparing infants born to A/H1N1-vaccinated women (vaccine-exposed infants) with unexposed infants, adjusted for confounding using high-dimensional propensity scores. Among 117,335 infants in the study, 36,033 (31%) were born to A/H1N1-vaccinated women. Crude rates of influenza during the pandemic (per 100,000 infant-days) for vaccine-exposed and unexposed infants were similar (2.19, 95% CI: 1.27-3.76 and 3.60, 95% CI: 2.51-5.14, respectively), as were crude rates of influenza and pneumonia combined. We did not observe any significant differences in rates of study outcomes between study groups during the second wave of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, nor during any post-pandemic time period. We observed no difference in rates of study outcomes among infants born to A/H1N1-vaccinated mothers relative to unexposed infants born during the second A/H1N1 pandemic wave; however, due to late availability of the pandemic vaccine, the available follow-up time during the pandemic time period was very limited.

[Paleopathology and the history of medicine: the example of influenza pandemics].

PubMed

Fangerau, H

2010-11-01

The paper examines the history of former influenza pandemics from the perspective of changing nosographic categories. Special emphasis is put on the so-called Spanish flu of 1918. Due to its high mortality rates this pandemic is often highlighted as a warning sign for what may happen during a future pandemic. After a short introduction into the problematic status of the validity of retrospective diagnoses the history of influenza pandemics is discussed. The pandemic of 1918 is analysed from the perspective of the public health system being connected to and relying on medical and scientific debates. The reasons for this pandemic's rank as the long forgotten pandemic are discussed.

La Grippe and World War I: conflict participation and pandemic confrontation.

PubMed

Steele, B J; Collins, C D

2009-01-01

This paper assesses whether a nation-state's participation in conflict influences its ability to confront global pandemic or disease. Two alternative hypotheses are proposed. First, increased levels of conflict participation lead to increased abilities of states to confront pandemics. A second and alternative hypothesis is that increased conflict participation decreases the ability of states to confront pandemics. The hypotheses are tested through the ultimate case of war and pandemic: the 1918 Influenza pandemic (Spanish Flu or 'La Grippe') that killed 20-100 million people worldwide. Using simple correlation and case illustrations, we test these hypotheses with special focus upon the ability of the participant countries to confront the pandemic. The findings suggest, in a limited and varied fashion, that while neutral countries enjoyed the lowest levels of pandemic deaths, of the participant countries greater levels of conflict participation correlate with lower levels of pandemic deaths. The paper concludes with some propositions regarding the relationship between the current 'war on terror' and prospective pandemics such as avian flu.

Legal preparedness: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Courtney, Brooke; Hodge, James G; Toner, Eric S; Roxland, Beth E; Penn, Matthew S; Devereaux, Asha V; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Kissoon, Niranjan; Christian, Michael D; Powell, Tia

2014-10-01

Significant legal challenges arise when health-care resources become scarce and population-based approaches to care are implemented during severe disasters and pandemics. Recent emergencies highlight the serious legal, economic, and health impacts that can be associated with responding in austere conditions and the critical importance of comprehensive, collaborative health response system planning. This article discusses legal suggestions developed by the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Task Force for Mass Critical Care to support planning and response efforts for mass casualty incidents involving critically ill or injured patients. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all of those involved in a pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. Following the CHEST Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology, the Legal Panel developed 35 key questions for which specific literature searches were then conducted. The literature in this field is not suitable to provide support for evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process resulting in seven final suggestions. Acceptance is widespread for the health-care community's duty to appropriately plan for and respond to severe disasters and pandemics. Hospitals, public health entities, and clinicians have an obligation to develop comprehensive, vetted plans for mass casualty incidents involving critically ill or injured patients. Such plans should address processes for evacuation and limited appeals and reviews of care decisions. To legitimize responses, deter independent actions, and trigger liability protections, mass critical care (MCC) plans should be formally activated when facilities and practitioners shift to providing MCC. Adherence to official MCC plans should contribute to protecting hospitals and practitioners who act in good faith from liability. Finally, to address anticipated staffing shortages during severe and prolonged disasters and pandemics, governments should develop approaches to formally expand the availability of qualified health-care workers, such as through using official foreign medical teams. As a fundamental element of health-care and public health emergency planning and preparedness, the law underlies critical aspects of disaster and pandemic responses. Effective responses require comprehensive advance planning efforts that include assessments of complex legal issues and authorities. Recent disasters have shown that although law is a critical response tool, it can also be used to hold health-care stakeholders who fail to appropriately plan for or respond to disasters and pandemics accountable for resulting patient or staff harm. Claims of liability from harms allegedly suffered during disasters and pandemics cannot be avoided altogether. However, appropriate planning and legal protections can help facilitate sound, consistent decision-making and support response participation among health-care entities and practitioners.

Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Methods Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Results Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. Conclusions This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza. PMID:21486453

Statistical estimates of absenteeism attributable to seasonal and pandemic influenza from the Canadian Labour Force Survey.

PubMed

Schanzer, Dena L; Zheng, Hui; Gilmore, Jason

2011-04-12

As many respiratory viruses are responsible for influenza like symptoms, accurate measures of the disease burden are not available and estimates are generally based on statistical methods. The objective of this study was to estimate absenteeism rates and hours lost due to seasonal influenza and compare these estimates with estimates of absenteeism attributable to the two H1N1 pandemic waves that occurred in 2009. Key absenteeism variables were extracted from Statistics Canada's monthly labour force survey (LFS). Absenteeism and the proportion of hours lost due to own illness or disability were modelled as a function of trend, seasonality and proxy variables for influenza activity from 1998 to 2009. Hours lost due to the H1N1/09 pandemic strain were elevated compared to seasonal influenza, accounting for a loss of 0.2% of potential hours worked annually. In comparison, an estimated 0.08% of hours worked annually were lost due to seasonal influenza illnesses. Absenteeism rates due to influenza were estimated at 12% per year for seasonal influenza over the 1997/98 to 2008/09 seasons, and 13% for the two H1N1/09 pandemic waves. Employees who took time off due to a seasonal influenza infection took an average of 14 hours off. For the pandemic strain, the average absence was 25 hours. This study confirms that absenteeism due to seasonal influenza has typically ranged from 5% to 20%, with higher rates associated with multiple circulating strains. Absenteeism rates for the 2009 pandemic were similar to those occurring for seasonal influenza. Employees took more time off due to the pandemic strain than was typical for seasonal influenza.

Selecting Nonpharmaceutical Strategies to Minimize Influenza Spread: The 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic and Beyond

PubMed Central

Koonin, Lisa M.; Kohl, Katrin S.; Cetron, Martin

2012-01-01

Shortly after the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic began, the U.S. government provided guidance to state and local authorities to assist decision-making for the use of nonpharmaceutical strategies to minimize influenza spread. This guidance included recommendations for flexible decision-making based on outbreak severity, and it allowed for uncertainty and course correction as the pandemic progressed. These recommendations build on a foundation of local, collaborative planning and posit a series of questions regarding epidemiology, the impact on the health-care system, and locally determined feasibility and acceptability of nonpharmaceutical strategies. This article describes -recommendations and key questions for decision makers. PMID:23115381

[The 1918 influenza epidemic in Bogota].

PubMed

Martínez Martín, Abel Fernando; Manrique Abril, Fred Gustavo; Meléndez Alvarez, Bernardo Francisco

2007-01-01

The influenza pandemic of 1918-1919 was one of the most severe recorded in Colombia. There were 1,900 deaths in the capital, Bogota. The poor and unprotected were the most affected. Care of victims was the responsibility of the Junta de Socorros, a private body. Based on different primary sources (mostly official documents, Junta de Socorros reports, newspapers, and medical journals) this article explores how the 1918 influenza pandemic altered Bogotá's social dynamics, with particular attention to its impact on disease and mortality rates and to an analysis of how the city's sanitary conditions and political-institutional decisions and the reactions of different social sectors influenced the response of this human community to the pandemic.

Estimated impact of aggressive empirical antiviral treatment in containing an outbreak of pandemic influenza H1N1 in an isolated First Nations community.

PubMed

Xiao, Yanyu; Patel, Zeenat; Fiddler, Adam; Yuan, Lilian; Delvin, Marie-Elaine; Fisman, David N

2013-11-01

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was mild by historical standards, but was more severe in isolated Canadian Indigenous communities. Oseltamivir was used aggressively for outbreak control in an isolated northern Ontario First Nations community. We used mathematical modeling to quantify the impact of antiviral therapy on the course of this outbreak. We used both a Richards growth model and a compartmental model to evaluate the characteristics of the outbreak based on both respiratory visits and influenza-like illness counts. Estimates of best-fit model parameters, including basic reproductive number (R0 ) and antiviral efficacy, and simulations, were used to estimate the impact of antiviral drugs compared to social distancing interventions alone. Using both approaches, we found that a rapidly growing outbreak slowed markedly with aggressive antiviral therapy. Richards model turning points occurred within 24 hours of antiviral implementation. Compartmental models estimated antiviral efficacy at 70-95%. Plausible estimates of R from both modeling approaches ranged from 4·0 to 15·8, higher than published estimates for southern Canada; utilization of aggressive antiviral therapy in this community prevented 962-1757 cases of symptomatic influenza and as many as 114 medical evacuations in this community. Although not advocated in other settings in Canada, aggressive antiviral therapy markedly reduced the impact of a pandemic-related influenza A (H1N1) outbreak in an isolated Canadian First Nations community in northern Ontario, Canada. The differential risk experienced by such communities makes tailored interventions that consider risk and lack of access to medical services, appropriate. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[An influenza pandemic--a chronicle of an epidemic foretold].

PubMed

Bodas, Moran; Balicer, Ran D

2009-08-01

Influenza is a striking example of a viral disease in which pathogens constantly change and adaptation is of major significance in the appearance of seasonal outbreaks. These, in turn, can become widespread, possibly pandemic. Pandemic influenza differs from seasonal influenza outbreaks essentially by the emergence of a novel strain of the virus that, at times, is also characterized by enhanced pathogenicity and virulence. The last three influenza pandemics have risen from avian influenza strains, although other subtypes are equally capable of producing pandemic strains. For example, the Latest influenza outbreak, which was declared by the World Health Organization as a pandemic, is of swine origin. A severe influenza pandemic may have significant consequences on social and economicaL structures. Therefore, proper prior planning is essential for capabilities built-up to better cope with possibly worse future pandemics. Each influenza pandemic poses a different challenge, but, nevertheless the basic means for response are similar.

[Laboratory diagnosis of pandemic influenza at the Department of Medical Microbiology of the Regional Authority of Public Health based in Banská Bystrica in the season 2009-2010].

PubMed

Kissová, R; Mad'arová, L; Klement, C

2011-02-01

The Department of Medical Microbiology of the Regional Authority of Public Health (RAPH) in Banská Bystrica serves as a catchment laboratory of virology for the Central Slovakia Region, and in the influenza season 2009/10, it also served as such for the East Slovakia Region. Specimens (nasopharyngeal swabs and post-mortem specimens) from patients with suspected influenza were obtained from both sentinel and non-sentinel physicians. The specimens were analyzed by a rapid test, followed by real-time PCR (RT-PCR) for influenza A or B diagnosis. RT-PCR subtyping for pandemic influenza A/H1N1 was performed. From May 2009 to June 2010, 2497 specimens were analyzed for the presence of influenza A and B viruses and in particular for the presence of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus. As many as 537 of 589 influenza A-positive specimens, i.e. 21.5% of all specimens analyzed and 91.2% of influenza A-positive specimens, were subtyped as pandemic influenza A/H1N1. In the influenza season 2009/10, the new pandemic influenza A/H1N1 clearly predominated in Central and Eastern Slovakia. PCR tests have played a key role in diagnosing patients with suspected pandemic influenza in the laboratory participating in the surveillance of influenza and influenza-like illness in the Slovak Republic.

Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Military Populations During Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Kiliç, Selim; Gray, Gregory C.

2008-01-01

Influenza causes substantial illness and loss of work days among young adults, and outbreaks can affect the preparedness of military units. In an influenza pandemic, people who live in confined settings have greater risk of infection. Military trainees are at particularly high risk. Because of likely unavailability of vaccines and antiviral drugs at the start of a pandemic and for many months thereafter, nonpharmaceutical interventions may be very important. During a pandemic, it seems prudent that military public health officials employ at least several nonpharmaceutical interventions. For example frequent handwashing and respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette should be strongly encouraged among soldiers. Head-to-toe sleeping, a “no-cost” intervention should be for crowded berthing areas. Isolation of patients with influenza and quarantine of their close contacts should be employed. Masks and alcohol-based hand rubs may be employed among those at highest risk. Finally, whenever possible military planners should, reduce crowding and limit the interaction of training cohorts to reduce risk of influenza virus transmission. PMID:18516249

Applying social science and public health methods to community-based pandemic planning.

PubMed

Danforth, Elizabeth J; Doying, Annette; Merceron, Georges; Kennedy, Laura

2010-11-01

Pandemic influenza is a unique threat to communities, affecting schools, businesses, health facilities and individuals in ways not seen in other emergency events. This paper aims to outline a local government project which utilised public health and social science research methods to facilitate the creation of an emergency response plan for pandemic influenza coincidental to the early stages of the 2009 H1N1 ('swine flu') outbreak. A multi-disciplinary team coordinated the creation of a pandemic influenza emergency response plan which utilised emergency planning structure and concepts and encompassed a diverse array of county entities including schools, businesses, community organisations, government agencies and healthcare facilities. Lessons learned from this project focus on the need for (1) maintaining relationships forged during the planning process, (2) targeted public health messaging, (3) continual evolution of emergency plans, (4) mutual understanding of emergency management concepts by business and community leaders, and (5) regional coordination with entities outside county boundaries.

Febrile seizures after 2009 influenza A (H1N1) vaccination and infection: a nationwide registry-based study.

PubMed

Bakken, Inger Johanne; Aaberg, Kari Modalsli; Ghaderi, Sara; Gunnes, Nina; Trogstad, Lill; Magnus, Per; Håberg, Siri Eldevik

2015-11-09

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, a monovalent pandemic strain vaccine containing the oil-in-water adjuvant AS03 (Pandemrix®) was offered to the Norwegian population. The coverage among children reached 54%. Our aim was to estimate the risk of febrile seizure in children after exposure to pandemic influenza vaccination or infection. The study population comprised 226,889 children born 2006-2009 resident in Norway per October 1st, 2009. Febrile seizure episodes were defined by emergency hospital admissions / emergency outpatient hospital care with International Classification of Diseases, Version 10, codes R56.0 or R56.8. The self-controlled case series method was applied to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) in pre-defined risk periods compared to the background period. The total observation window was ± 180 days from exposure day. Among 113,068 vaccinated children, 656 (0.6%) had at least one febrile seizure episode. The IRR of febrile seizures 1-3 days after vaccination was 2.00 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.15-3.51). In the period 4-7 days after vaccination, no increased risk was observed. Among the 8172 children diagnosed with pandemic influenza, 84 (1.0%) had at least one febrile seizure episode. The IRR of febrile seizures on the same day as a diagnosis of influenza was 116.70 (95% CI: 62.81-216.90). In the period 1-3 days after a diagnosis of influenza, a tenfold increased risk was observed (IRR 10.12, 95% CI: 3.82 - 26.82). In this large population-based study with precise timing of exposures and outcomes, we found a twofold increased risk of febrile seizures 1-3 days after pandemic influenza vaccination. However, we found that pandemic influenza infection was associated with a much stronger increase in risk of febrile seizures.

Genome assortment, not serogroup, defines Vibrio cholerae pandemic strains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brettin, Thomas S; Bruce, David C; Challacombe, Jean F

2009-01-01

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a bacterium autochthonous to the aquatic environment, and a serious public health threat. V. cholerae serogroup O1 is responsible for the previous two cholera pandemics, in which classical and El Tor biotypes were dominant in the 6th and the current 7th pandemics, respectively. Cholera researchers continually face newly emerging and re-emerging pathogenic clones carrying combinations of new serogroups as well as of phenotypic and genotypic properties. These genotype and phenotype changes have hampered control of the disease. Here we compare the complete genome sequences of 23 strains of V. cholerae isolated frommore » a variety of sources and geographical locations over the past 98 years in an effort to elucidate the evolutionary mechanisms governing genetic diversity and genesis of new pathogenic clones. The genome-based phylogeny revealed 12 distinct V. cholerae phyletic lineages, of which one, designated the V. cholerae core genome (CG), comprises both O1 classical and EI Tor biotypes. All 7th pandemic clones share nearly identical gene content, i.e., the same genome backbone. The transition from 6th to 7th pandemic strains is defined here as a 'shift' between pathogenic clones belonging to the same O1 serogroup, but from significantly different phyletic lineages within the CG clade. In contrast, transition among clones during the present 7th pandemic period can be characterized as a 'drift' between clones, differentiated mainly by varying composition of laterally transferred genomic islands, resulting in emergence of variants, exemplified by V.cholerae serogroup O139 and V.cholerae O1 El Tor hybrid clones that produce cholera toxin of classical biotype. Based on the comprehensive comparative genomics presented in this study it is concluded that V. cholerae undergoes extensive genetic recombination via lateral gene transfer, and, therefore, genome assortment, not serogroup, should be used to define pathogenic V. cholerae clones.« less

Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence

PubMed Central

Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2017-01-01

Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a transient wake of heterosubtypic immunity that impedes the emergence of novel flu viruses. This refractory period provides a simple explanation for not only the spring-summer timing of historical pandemics, but also early increases in pandemic severity and multiple waves of transmission. Thus, pandemic risk may be seasonal and predictable, with the accuracy of pre-pandemic and real-time risk assessments hinging on reliable seasonal influenza surveillance and precise estimates of the breadth and duration of heterosubtypic immunity. PMID:29049288

Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic.

PubMed

Gagnon, Alain; Acosta, Enrique; Hallman, Stacey; Bourbeau, Robert; Dillon, Lisa Y; Ouellette, Nadine; Earn, David J D; Herring, D Ann; Inwood, Kris; Madrenas, Joaquin; Miller, Matthew S

2018-01-16

Recent outbreaks of H5, H7, and H9 influenza A viruses in humans have served as a vivid reminder of the potentially devastating effects that a novel pandemic could exert on the modern world. Those who have survived infections with influenza viruses in the past have been protected from subsequent antigenically similar pandemics through adaptive immunity. For example, during the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic, those exposed to H1N1 viruses that circulated between 1918 and the 1940s were at a decreased risk for mortality as a result of their previous immunity. It is also generally thought that past exposures to antigenically dissimilar strains of influenza virus may also be beneficial due to cross-reactive cellular immunity. However, cohorts born during prior heterosubtypic pandemics have previously experienced elevated risk of death relative to surrounding cohorts of the same population. Indeed, individuals born during the 1890 H3Nx pandemic experienced the highest levels of excess mortality during the 1918 "Spanish flu." Applying Serfling models to monthly mortality and influenza circulation data between October 1997 and July 2014 in the United States and Mexico, we show corresponding peaks in excess mortality during the 2009 H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic and during the resurgent 2013-2014 H1N1 outbreak for those born at the time of the 1957 H2N2 "Asian flu" pandemic. We suggest that the phenomenon observed in 1918 is not unique and points to exposure to pandemic influenza early in life as a risk factor for mortality during subsequent heterosubtypic pandemics. IMPORTANCE The relatively low mortality experienced by older individuals during the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus pandemic has been well documented. However, reported situations in which previous influenza virus exposures have enhanced susceptibility are rare and poorly understood. One such instance occurred in 1918-when those born during the heterosubtypic 1890 H3Nx influenza virus pandemic experienced the highest levels of excess mortality. Here, we demonstrate that this phenomenon was not unique to the 1918 H1N1 pandemic but that it also occurred during the contemporary 2009 H1N1 pandemic and 2013-2014 H1N1-dominated season for those born during the heterosubtypic 1957 H2N2 "Asian flu" pandemic. These data highlight the heretofore underappreciated phenomenon that, in certain instances, prior exposure to pandemic influenza virus strains can enhance susceptibility during subsequent pandemics. These results have important implications for pandemic risk assessment and should inform laboratory studies aimed at uncovering the mechanism responsible for this effect. Copyright © 2018 Gagnon et al.

Pandemic influenza and major disease outbreak preparedness in US emergency departments: a selected survey of emergency health professionals.

PubMed

Morton, Melinda J; Hsu, Edbert B; Shah, Sneha H; Hsieh, Yu-Hsiang; Kirsch, Thomas D

2011-01-01

To assess the level of pandemic preparedness at emergency departments (EDs) around the country and to better understand current barriers to preparedness in the United States represented by health professionals in the American College of Emergency Physician (ACEP) Disaster Medicine Section (DMS). METHODS, DESIGN, and A cross-sectional survey of ACEP DMS members was performed. A total of 300 members were surveyed both via e-mail and with paper surveys during the 2009 ACEP Scientific Assembly DMS Meeting. An optional comments section was included for section members'perspectives on barriers to preparedness. A 15-item pandemic preparedness score was calculated for each respondent based on key preparedness indicators as defined by the authors. Results were analyzed with descriptive statistics, Chi2 analysis, Cochran-Armitage trend test, and analysis of variance. Free text comments were coded and subjected to frequency-based analysis. A total of 92 DMS members completed the survey with a response rate of31 percent. Although 85 percent of those surveyed indicated that their hospital had a plan for pandemic influenza response and other infectious disease threats, only 68 percent indicated that their ED had a plan, and 52 percent indicated that their hospital or ED had conducted disaster preparedness drills. Only 57 percent indicated that there was a plan to augment ED staff in the event of a staffing shortage, and 63 percent indicated that there were adequate supplies of personal protective equipment. While 63 percent of respondents indicated that their ED had a plan for distribution of vaccines and antivirals, only 32 percent ofEDs had a plan for allocation of ventilators. A total of 42 percent of respondents felt that their ED was prepared in the event of a pandemic influenza or other disease outbreak, and only 35 percent felt that their hospital was prepared. The average pandemic preparedness score among respondents was 8.30 of a total of 15. Larger EDs were more likely to have a higher preparedness score (p=0.03) and more likely to have a pandemic preparedness plan (p=0.037). Some major barriers to preparedness cited by section members included lack of local administration support, challenges in funding, need for dedicated disaster preparedness personnel, staffing shortages, and a lack of communication among disaster response agencies, particularly at the federal level. There appear to be significant gaps in pandemic influenza and other infectious disease outbreak planning among the hospitals where ACEP DMS members work. This may reflect a broader underlying inadequacy of preparedness measures.

Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia

PubMed Central

Watkins, Rochelle E; Cooke, Feonagh C; Donovan, Robert J; MacIntyre, C Raina; Itzwerth, Ralf; Plant, Aileen J

2007-01-01

Background Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Methods Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Results Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Conclusion Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium businesses should emphasise the severity of the consequences to their businesses if a pandemic were to occur, and, at the same time, reassure them that there are effective strategies capable of being implemented by small and medium businesses to deal with a pandemic. PMID:17634112

Influenza pandemic preparedness: motivation for protection among small and medium businesses in Australia.

PubMed

Watkins, Rochelle E; Cooke, Feonagh C; Donovan, Robert J; MacIntyre, C Raina; Itzwerth, Ralf; Plant, Aileen J

2007-07-17

Community-wide preparedness for pandemic influenza is an issue that has featured prominently in the recent news media, and is currently a priority for health authorities in many countries. The small and medium business sector is a major provider of private sector employment in Australia, yet we have little information about the preparedness of this sector for pandemic influenza. This study aimed to investigate the association between individual perceptions and preparedness for pandemic influenza among small and medium business owners and managers. Semi-structured face-to-face interviews were conducted with 201 small and medium business owners or managers in New South Wales and Western Australia. Eligible small or medium businesses were defined as those that had less than 200 employees. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to identify the predictors of having considered the impact of, having a plan for, and needing help to prepare for pandemic influenza. Approximately 6 per cent of participants reported that their business had a plan for pandemic influenza, 39 per cent reported that they had not thought at all about the impact of pandemic influenza on their business, and over 60 per cent stated that they required help to prepare for a pandemic. Beliefs about the severity of pandemic influenza and the ability to respond were significant independent predictors of having a plan for pandemic influenza, and the perception of the risk of pandemic influenza was the most important predictor of both having considered the impact of, and needing help to prepare for a pandemic. Our findings suggest that small and medium businesses in Australia are not currently well prepared for pandemic influenza. We found that beliefs about the risk, severity, and the ability to respond effectively to the threat of pandemic influenza are important predictors of preparedness. Campaigns targeting small and medium businesses should emphasise the severity of the consequences to their businesses if a pandemic were to occur, and, at the same time, reassure them that there are effective strategies capable of being implemented by small and medium businesses to deal with a pandemic.

A monoclonal antibody-based ELISA for differential diagnosis of 2009 pandemic H1N1

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The swine-origin 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus (pdmH1N1) is genetically related to North American swine H1 influenza viruses and unrelated to human seasonal H1 viruses. Currently, specific diagnosis of pdmH1N1 relies on RT-PCR. In order to develop an assay that does not rely in amplification of the viral...

In Silico Prediction and Experimental Confirmation of HA Residues Conferring Enhanced Human Receptor Specificity of H5N1 Influenza A Viruses.

PubMed

Schmier, Sonja; Mostafa, Ahmed; Haarmann, Thomas; Bannert, Norbert; Ziebuhr, John; Veljkovic, Veljko; Dietrich, Ursula; Pleschka, Stephan

2015-06-19

Newly emerging influenza A viruses (IAV) pose a major threat to human health by causing seasonal epidemics and/or pandemics, the latter often facilitated by the lack of pre-existing immunity in the general population. Early recognition of candidate pandemic influenza viruses (CPIV) is of crucial importance for restricting virus transmission and developing appropriate therapeutic and prophylactic strategies including effective vaccines. Often, the pandemic potential of newly emerging IAV is only fully recognized once the virus starts to spread efficiently causing serious disease in humans. Here, we used a novel phylogenetic algorithm based on the informational spectrum method (ISM) to identify potential CPIV by predicting mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) gene that are likely to (differentially) affect critical interactions between the HA protein and target cells from bird and human origin, respectively. Predictions were subsequently validated by generating pseudotyped retrovirus particles and genetically engineered IAV containing these mutations and characterizing potential effects on virus entry and replication in cells expressing human and avian IAV receptors, respectively. Our data suggest that the ISM-based algorithm is suitable to identify CPIV among IAV strains that are circulating in animal hosts and thus may be a new tool for assessing pandemic risks associated with specific strains.

In Silico Prediction and Experimental Confirmation of HA Residues Conferring Enhanced Human Receptor Specificity of H5N1 Influenza A Viruses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmier, Sonja; Mostafa, Ahmed; Haarmann, Thomas; Bannert, Norbert; Ziebuhr, John; Veljkovic, Veljko; Dietrich, Ursula; Pleschka, Stephan

2015-06-01

Newly emerging influenza A viruses (IAV) pose a major threat to human health by causing seasonal epidemics and/or pandemics, the latter often facilitated by the lack of pre-existing immunity in the general population. Early recognition of candidate pandemic influenza viruses (CPIV) is of crucial importance for restricting virus transmission and developing appropriate therapeutic and prophylactic strategies including effective vaccines. Often, the pandemic potential of newly emerging IAV is only fully recognized once the virus starts to spread efficiently causing serious disease in humans. Here, we used a novel phylogenetic algorithm based on the informational spectrum method (ISM) to identify potential CPIV by predicting mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) gene that are likely to (differentially) affect critical interactions between the HA protein and target cells from bird and human origin, respectively. Predictions were subsequently validated by generating pseudotyped retrovirus particles and genetically engineered IAV containing these mutations and characterizing potential effects on virus entry and replication in cells expressing human and avian IAV receptors, respectively. Our data suggest that the ISM-based algorithm is suitable to identify CPIV among IAV strains that are circulating in animal hosts and thus may be a new tool for assessing pandemic risks associated with specific strains.

Modeling the economic impact of pandemic influenza: a case study in Turkey.

PubMed

Yoldascan, Elcin; Kurtaran, Behice; Koyuncu, Melik; Koyuncu, Esra

2010-04-01

Influenza pandemics have occurred intermittently throughout the 20th century and killed millions of people worldwide. It is expected that influenza pandemics will continue to occur in the near future. Huge number of deaths and cases is the most troublesome aspect of the influenza pandemics, but the other important trouble is the economic impact of the influenza pandemics to the countries. In this study, we try to detect the cost of a possible influenza pandemic under different scenarios and attack rates. We include the vaccination and antiviral treatment cost for direct cost and we add the work absenteeism cost to the calculations for indirect cost of influenza pandemics. As a case study, we calculate the economic impact of pandemic influenza for Turkey under three different scenarios and three different attack rates. Our optimistic estimation shows that the economic impact of pandemic influenza will be between 1.364 billion dollars and 2.687 billions dollars to Turkish economy depending on the vaccination strategies.

Molecular Dynamics Analysis of Antibody Recognition and Escape by Human H1N1 Influenza Hemagglutinin

PubMed Central

Ieong, Pek; Amaro, Rommie E.; Li, Wilfred W.

2015-01-01

The antibody immunoglobulin (Ig) 2D1 is effective against the 1918 hemagglutinin (HA) and also known to cross-neutralize the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza HA through a similar epitope. However, the detailed mechanism of neutralization remains unclear. We conducted molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to study the interactions between Ig-2D1 and the HAs from the 1918 pandemic flu (A/South Carolina/1/1918, 18HA), the 2009 pandemic flu (A/California/04/2009, 09HA), a 2009 pandemic flu mutant (A/California/04/2009, 09HA_mut), and the 2006 seasonal flu (A/Solomon Islands/3/2006, 06HA). MM-PBSA analyses suggest the approximate free energy of binding (ΔG) between Ig-2D1 and 18HA is −74.4 kcal/mol. In comparison with 18HA, 09HA and 06HA bind Ig-2D1 ∼6 kcal/mol (ΔΔG) weaker, and the 09HA_mut bind Ig-2D1 only half as strong. We also analyzed the contributions of individual epitope residues using the free-energy decomposition method. Two important salt bridges are found between the HAs and Ig-2D1. In 09HA, a serine-to-asparagine mutation coincided with a salt bridge destabilization, hydrogen bond losses, and a water pocket formation between 09HA and Ig-2D1. In 09HA_mut, a lysine-to-glutamic-acid mutation leads to the loss of both salt bridges and destabilizes interactions with Ig-2D1. Even though 06HA has a similar ΔG to 09HA, it is not recognized by Ig-2D1 in vivo. Because 06HA contains two potential glycosylation sites that could mask the epitope, our results suggest that Ig-2D1 may be active against 06HA only in the absence of glycosylation. Overall, our simulation results are in good agreement with observations from biological experiments and offer novel mechanistic insights, to our knowledge, into the immune escape of the influenza virus. PMID:26039171

Updated preparedness and response framework for influenza pandemics.

PubMed

Holloway, Rachel; Rasmussen, Sonja A; Zaza, Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J; Jernigan, Daniel B

2014-09-26

The complexities of planning for and responding to the emergence of novel influenza viruses emphasize the need for systematic frameworks to describe the progression of the event; weigh the risk of emergence and potential public health impact; evaluate transmissibility, antiviral resistance, and severity; and make decisions about interventions. On the basis of experience from recent influenza responses, CDC has updated its framework to describe influenza pandemic progression using six intervals (two prepandemic and four pandemic intervals) and eight domains. This updated framework can be used for influenza pandemic planning and serves as recommendations for risk assessment, decision-making, and action in the United States. The updated framework replaces the U.S. federal government stages from the 2006 implementation plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza (US Homeland Security Council. National strategy for pandemic influenza: implementation plan. Washington, DC: US Homeland Security Council; 2006. Available at http://www.flu.gov/planning-preparedness/federal/pandemic-influenza-implementation.pdf). The six intervals of the updated framework are as follows: 1) investigation of cases of novel influenza, 2) recognition of increased potential for ongoing transmission, 3) initiation of a pandemic wave, 4) acceleration of a pandemic wave, 5) deceleration of a pandemic wave, and 6) preparation for future pandemic waves. The following eight domains are used to organize response efforts within each interval: incident management, surveillance and epidemiology, laboratory, community mitigation, medical care and countermeasures, vaccine, risk communications, and state/local coordination. Compared with the previous U.S. government stages, this updated framework provides greater detail and clarity regarding the potential timing of key decisions and actions aimed at slowing the spread and mitigating the impact of an emerging pandemic. Use of this updated framework is anticipated to improve pandemic preparedness and response in the United States. Activities and decisions during a response are event-specific. These intervals serve as a reference for public health decision-making by federal, state, and local health authorities in the United States during an influenza pandemic and are not meant to be prescriptive or comprehensive. This framework incorporates information from newly developed tools for pandemic planning and response, including the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool and the Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework, and has been aligned with the pandemic phases restructured in 2013 by the World Health Organization.

The role of the intensive care unit in real-time surveillance of emerging pandemics: the Italian GiViTI experience.

PubMed

Bertolini, G; Nattino, G; Langer, M; Tavola, M; Crespi, D; Mondini, M; Rossi, C; Previtali, C; Marshall, J; Poole, D

2016-01-01

The prompt availability of reliable epidemiological information on emerging pandemics is crucial for public health policy-makers. Early in 2013, a possible new H1N1 epidemic notified by an intensive care unit (ICU) to GiViTI, the Italian ICU network, prompted the re-activation of the real-time monitoring system developed during the 2009-2010 pandemic. Based on data from 216 ICUs, we were able to detect and monitor an outbreak of severe H1N1 infection, and to compare the situation with previous years. The timely and correct assessment of the severity of an epidemic can be obtained by investigating ICU admissions, especially when historical comparisons can be made.

Pandemic and public health controls: toward an equitable compensation system.

PubMed

Ly, Theresa; Selgelid, M J; Kerridge, I

2007-10-01

There is increasing global concern about the potential impact of pandemic infections, including influenza, SARS and bioterrorist attacks involving infectious diseases. Many countries have prepared plans for responding to a major pandemic. In Australia, the Federal and State pandemic plans include measures such as contact tracing, ensuring availability of antimicrobials, quarantine and social distancing. Many of these measures would involve severe restrictions on individual citizens and small businesses. Issues of compensation for cooperation and compliance with pandemic plans need to be addressed in policy discussion. The instrumental benefits of compensation in the event of a pandemic have not been sufficiently recognised. Greater attention paid now to mechanisms to compensate individual and business costs associated with compliance would increase trust in government pandemic plans, encourage compliance and reduce the health and economic impact of a pandemic.

Preparing ICUs for pandemics.

PubMed

Gabriel, Lucinda E K; Webb, Steve A R

2013-10-01

Influenza pandemics occur intermittently and represent an existential global infectious diseases threat. The purpose of this review is to describe clinical and research preparedness for future pandemics. Pandemic influenza typically results in large numbers of individuals with life-threatening pneumonia requiring treatment in ICUs. Clinical preparedness of ICUs relates to planning to provide increased 'surge' capacity to meet increased demand and requires consideration of staffing, equipment and consumables, bed-space availability and management systems. Research preparedness is also necessary, as timely clinical research has the potential to change the trajectory of a pandemic. The clinical research response during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic was suboptimal. Better planning is necessary to optimize both clinical and research responses to future pandemics.

Antibody responses to influenza viruses in paediatric patients and their contacts at the onset of the 2009 pandemic in Mexico.

PubMed

Miranda-Novales, Guadalupe; Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Herrera-Castillo, Cristina; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Solórzano-Santos, Fortino; Vázquez-Rosales, Guillermo; Espitia-Pinzón, Clara; Zamudio-Lugo, Irma; Meza-Chávez, Abigail; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

2015-03-15

On April 2009, the Mexican Ministry of Health received notification of cases of severe pneumonia mostly affecting young healthy people; this was the beginning of the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century. The nature of the immune response to the influenza A(H1N1)2009 pandemic strain in Mexico at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak has not been completely defined. We describe the serological response to the 2009 pandemic influenza virus in paediatric patients with influenza-like illness, their household contacts (HHCs), and exposed health-care workers (HCWs) at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak in Mexico City. thirty pre-epidemic and 129 epidemic samples were collected and serum antibodies were measured against A(H1N1)2009 pandemic virus and two non-pandemic swine influenza viruses by an haemagglutination inhibition assay . 91% (29/32) of the convalescence samples from confirmed patients had an antibody titre ≥ 10 (GMT 25), 63% (41/65) of the HHCs (GMT 12), 41% of HCWs (GMT 6) and 13% (4/30) of pre-epidemic samples (GMT 6) for the pandemic influenza virus. Of the 32 confirmed cases, 60% had an antibody titre ≥ 40 for the pandemic strain, 53% for the A/swine/Iowa(H1N1) virus (GMT 62) and 43% for the A/swine/Texas(H3N2) virus (GMT 66). The antibody response to 2009 pandemic influenza virus was widespread in convalescence samples from patients with confirmed pandemic influenza infection but the GMT was below the protective titre. There was no evidence that antibodies to the swine influenza viruses had cross-protective effect against the 2009 pandemic influenza virus.

Did pandemic preparedness aid the response to pandemic (H1N1) 2009? A qualitative analysis in seven countries within the WHO European Region.

PubMed

Hashim, Ahmed; Jean-Gilles, Lucie; Hegermann-Lindencrone, Michala; Shaw, Ian; Brown, Caroline; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan

2012-08-01

Although the 2009-2010 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was of low severity compared with other pandemics of the 20th century, this pandemic was the first opportunity for countries to implement a real-life pandemic response. The aim of the project was to review the extent to which these plans and planning activities proved useful and to identify areas of pandemic planning that require further strengthening. We randomly selected seven countries within the WHO European Region to participate in a comprehensive, qualitative study to evaluate the pandemic preparedness activities undertaken prior to March 2009 compared with the subsequent pandemic responses mounted from May 2009 onwards. Research teams visited each country and interviewed stakeholders from health and civil response ministries, national public health authorities, regional authorities and family and hospital doctors. The following six consistent themes were identified as essential elements of successful pandemic preparedness activities: communication, coordination, capacity building, adaptability/flexibility, leadership and mutual support. Regarding future pandemic preparedness activities, an emphasis on these areas should be retained and planning for the following activities should be improved: communication (i.e., with the public and health professionals); coordination of vaccine procurement and logistics; flexibility of response and hospital surveillance. Pandemic preparedness activities were successfully undertaken in the WHO European Region prior to the 2009 pandemic. These activities proved to be effective and were generally appropriate for the response provided in 2009. Nevertheless, consistent themes also emerged regarding specific areas of under planning that were common to most of the surveyed countries. Copyright © 2012 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pandemic planning in the shipping industry--lessons learnt from the 2009 Influenza Pandemic.

PubMed

Bunyan, Kate

2011-01-01

The events around the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic highlighted the need for better planning to ensure protection of those on vessels, protection for ports of call, and protection of business assets (business continuity). The variety of stakeholders involved in the management of a pandemic made it difficult to achieve a cohesive plan during the event itself. By considering the actions during the last pandemic, and the literature available for the shipping industry on pandemic planning, a pathway to better preparation is suggested.

A multicentre evaluation of two intensive care unit triage protocols for use in an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Cheung, Winston K; Myburgh, John; Seppelt, Ian M; Parr, Michael J; Blackwell, Nikki; Demonte, Shannon; Gandhi, Kalpesh; Hoyling, Larissa; Nair, Priya; Passer, Melissa; Reynolds, Claire; Saunders, Nicholas M; Saxena, Manoj K; Thanakrishnan, Govindasamy

2012-08-06

To determine the increase in intensive care unit (ICU) bed availability that would result from the use of the New South Wales and Ontario Health Plan for an Influenza Pandemic (OHPIP) triage protocols. Prospective evaluation study conducted in eight Australian, adult, general ICUs, between September 2009 and May 2010. All patients who were admitted to the ICU, excluding those who had elective surgery, were prospectively evaluated using the two triage protocols, simulating a pandemic situation. Both protocols were originally developed to determine which patients should be excluded from accessing ICU resources during an influenza pandemic. Increase in ICU bed availability. At admission, the increases in ICU bed availability using Tiers 1, 2 and 3 of the NSW triage protocol were 3.5%, 14.7% and 22.7%, respectively, and 52.8% using the OHPIP triage protocol (P < 0.001). Re-evaluation of patients at 12 hours after admission using Tiers 1, 2 and 3 of the NSW triage protocol incrementally increased ICU bed availability by 19.2%, 16.1% and 14.1%, respectively (P < 0.001). The maximal cumulative increases in ICU bed availability using Tiers 1, 2 and 3 of the NSW triage protocol were 23.7%, 31.6% and 37.5%, respectively, at 72 hours (P < 0.001), and 65.0% using the OHPIP triage protocol, at 120 hours (P < 0.001). Both triage protocols resulted in increases in ICU bed availability, but the OHPIP protocol provided the greatest increase overall. With the NSW triage protocol, ICU bed availability increased as the protocol was escalated.

Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

PubMed Central

Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

2011-01-01

SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. Methods A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Results Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. Conclusions There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia. PMID:24090286

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

PubMed

Schwanke Khilji, Sara U; Rudge, James W; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

2013-10-04

Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.

Confronting the Impact of HIV and AIDS: The Consequences of the Pandemics for Education Supply, Demand and Quality--A Global Review from a Southern African Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coombe, Carol

2004-01-01

The global spread of the HIV and AIDS pandemics will, for the next three generations at least, underline education access, quality and provision. Reforms within the sector will necessarily take account of the implications of this plague within national, provincial and local contexts. This article is based on several assumptions. The first is that…

Evolution of 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses during the pandemic correlates with increased viral pathogenicity and transmissibility in the ferret model.

PubMed

Otte, Anna; Marriott, Anthony C; Dreier, Carola; Dove, Brian; Mooren, Kyra; Klingen, Thorsten R; Sauter, Martina; Thompson, Katy-Anne; Bennett, Allan; Klingel, Karin; van Riel, Debby; McHardy, Alice C; Carroll, Miles W; Gabriel, Gülsah

2016-06-24

There is increasing evidence that 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses have evolved after pandemic onset giving rise to severe epidemics in subsequent waves. However, it still remains unclear which viral determinants might have contributed to disease severity after pandemic initiation. Here, we show that distinct mutations in the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus genome have occurred with increased frequency after pandemic declaration. Among those, a mutation in the viral hemagglutinin was identified that increases 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus binding to human-like α2,6-linked sialic acids. Moreover, these mutations conferred increased viral replication in the respiratory tract and elevated respiratory droplet transmission between ferrets. Thus, our data show that 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses have evolved after pandemic onset giving rise to novel virus variants that enhance viral replicative fitness and respiratory droplet transmission in a mammalian animal model. These findings might help to improve surveillance efforts to assess the pandemic risk by emerging influenza viruses.

[Technical report on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic].

PubMed

2010-01-01

Since its appearance in April 2009, the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has been a subject of continued attention by national and international health authorities, as well as in the communication media. It has been six months since the first cases were published and the winter season has just ended in the southern hemisphere. Therefore, we now have quite extensive knowledge on the behaviour of the disease, its severity and the way it manifests itself in the child/adolescent population. The Spanish Paediatric Association commissioned its Evidence Based Medicine Working Group to prepare a technical report on the influenza pandemic. This report has been prepared following the highly structured working methodology proposed by the so-called Evidence Based Medicine (EBM). This methodology requires formulating clinical questions, carrying out a systematic review of the literature looking for research works that could answer them, the critical reading of these, evaluating their methodology quality and clinical importance and finally, establishing recommendations based on those studies considered valid and important as well as on good clinical judgement. The present report approaches all aspects of the influenza pandemic considered to be of interest: extent of the disease, clinical and laboratory diagnosis, physical prevention measures, vaccination and pharmacological treatment. The target population of the report are children and adolescents. Many of the considerations made may also be applied to other age groups. The primary objective of this report is to establish a group of recommendations which may serve as a generic framework for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of the pandemic influenza in children and adolescents. The final targets of the report are paediatricians and also general/family doctors and nurses who look after children and adolescents. Copyright (c) 2009 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Pandemic influenza A virus codon usage revisited: biases, adaptation and implications for vaccine strain development

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Influenza A virus (IAV) is a member of the family Orthomyxoviridae and contains eight segments of a single-stranded RNA genome with negative polarity. The first influenza pandemic of this century was declared in April of 2009, with the emergence of a novel H1N1 IAV strain (H1N1pdm) in Mexico and USA. Understanding the extent and causes of biases in codon usage is essential to the understanding of viral evolution. A comprehensive study to investigate the effect of selection pressure imposed by the human host on the codon usage of an emerging, pandemic IAV strain and the trends in viral codon usage involved over the pandemic time period is much needed. Results We performed a comprehensive codon usage analysis of 310 IAV strains from the pandemic of 2009. Highly biased codon usage for Ala, Arg, Pro, Thr and Ser were found. Codon usage is strongly influenced by underlying biases in base composition. When correspondence analysis (COA) on relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) is applied, the distribution of IAV ORFs in the plane defined by the first two major dimensional factors showed that different strains are located at different places, suggesting that IAV codon usage also reflects an evolutionary process. Conclusions A general association between codon usage bias, base composition and poor adaptation of the virus to the respective host tRNA pool, suggests that mutational pressure is the main force shaping H1N1 pdm IAV codon usage. A dynamic process is observed in the variation of codon usage of the strains enrolled in these studies. These results suggest a balance of mutational bias and natural selection, which allow the virus to explore and re-adapt its codon usage to different environments. Recoding of IAV taking into account codon bias, base composition and adaptation to host tRNA may provide important clues to develop new and appropriate vaccines. PMID:23134595

Genomic Analysis of Attenuation in Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinnell, L. J.; Tallman, J. J., III; Turner, J.

2016-02-01

A critical problem in the prevention and treatment of infectious disease is the ability to differentiate virulent from avirulent bacterial strains. The distinction is commonly based on the presence or absence of specific virulence-associated genes. Alternately, serotypic or phylogenetic typing can accurately differentiate virulent from avirulent strains. When these approaches fail, more discriminatory analysis is needed. Pandemic Vibiro parahaemolyticus, distinguishable by genotyping (thermostable direct hemolysin or tdh), serotyping (O3:K6) and multilocus sequence typing (ST3), is regarded as a highly virulent clonal complex. We have previously shown, through population genetics and cytotoxicity testing, that some pandemic strains isolated from environmental sources are avirulent. To investigate the basis for attenuation, we sequenced the draft genomes of 10 pandemic V. parahaemolyticus isolates originating from environmental (N = 7) and clinical sources (N = 3). Genomic comparison of these 10 draft genomes, and the pandemic type strain (RIMD2210633), revealed a large core genome (5,158,719 bp) and a much smaller accessory genome (141,403 bp). The accessory genome was largely comprised of hypothetical proteins; however, several genes encoded phage-related proteins. Phylogenetic analysis, based on 2,902 single nucleotide polymorphisms in the core genome, did not reveal a discernable pattern. Current efforts are focused on the identification of insertions, deletions and point mutations that may alter protein expression or protein function. Preliminary results show that attenuated strains lack the virulence-associated vacB gene (VP1890). This gene encodes a 741 amino acid exoribonuclease homologous to exoribonucleases known to modulate virulence in Salmonella enterica and Helicobacter pylori. The correlation between attenuation and the absence of this gene, suggests that VP1890 plays an important role in human pathogenesis.

Optimizing Distribution of Pandemic Influenza Antiviral Drugs

PubMed Central

Huang, Hsin-Chan; Morton, David P.; Johnson, Gregory P.; Gutfraind, Alexander; Galvani, Alison P.; Clements, Bruce; Meyers, Lauren A.

2015-01-01

We provide a data-driven method for optimizing pharmacy-based distribution of antiviral drugs during an influenza pandemic in terms of overall access for a target population and apply it to the state of Texas, USA. We found that during the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Texas Department of State Health Services achieved an estimated statewide access of 88% (proportion of population willing to travel to the nearest dispensing point). However, access reached only 34.5% of US postal code (ZIP code) areas containing <1,000 underinsured persons. Optimized distribution networks increased expected access to 91% overall and 60% in hard-to-reach regions, and 2 or 3 major pharmacy chains achieved near maximal coverage in well-populated areas. Independent pharmacies were essential for reaching ZIP code areas containing <1,000 underinsured persons. This model was developed during a collaboration between academic researchers and public health officials and is available as a decision support tool for Texas Department of State Health Services at a Web-based interface. PMID:25625858

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses remains a complex challenge. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk asses...

Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-09-01

Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Richard D; Keogh-Brown, Marcus R

2013-11-01

Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries. To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. A single-country whole-economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimizing Tactics for Use of the U.S. Antiviral Strategic National Stockpile for Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Dimitrov, Nedialko B.; Goll, Sebastian; Hupert, Nathaniel; Pourbohloul, Babak; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2011-01-01

In 2009, public health agencies across the globe worked to mitigate the impact of the swine-origin influenza A (pH1N1) virus. These efforts included intensified surveillance, social distancing, hygiene measures, and the targeted use of antiviral medications to prevent infection (prophylaxis). In addition, aggressive antiviral treatment was recommended for certain patient subgroups to reduce the severity and duration of symptoms. To assist States and other localities meet these needs, the U.S. Government distributed a quarter of the antiviral medications in the Strategic National Stockpile within weeks of the pandemic's start. However, there are no quantitative models guiding the geo-temporal distribution of the remainder of the Stockpile in relation to pandemic spread or severity. We present a tactical optimization model for distributing this stockpile for treatment of infected cases during the early stages of a pandemic like 2009 pH1N1, prior to the wide availability of a strain-specific vaccine. Our optimization method efficiently searches large sets of intervention strategies applied to a stochastic network model of pandemic influenza transmission within and among U.S. cities. The resulting optimized strategies depend on the transmissability of the virus and postulated rates of antiviral uptake and wastage (through misallocation or loss). Our results suggest that an aggressive community-based antiviral treatment strategy involving early, widespread, pro-rata distribution of antivirals to States can contribute to slowing the transmission of mildly transmissible strains, like pH1N1. For more highly transmissible strains, outcomes of antiviral use are more heavily impacted by choice of distribution intervals, quantities per shipment, and timing of shipments in relation to pandemic spread. This study supports previous modeling results suggesting that appropriate antiviral treatment may be an effective mitigation strategy during the early stages of future influenza pandemics, increasing the need for systematic efforts to optimize distribution strategies and provide tactical guidance for public health policy-makers. PMID:21283514

Accounting for personal and professional choices for pandemic influenza vaccination amongst English healthcare workers.

PubMed

Marcu, Afrodita; Rubinstein, Helena; Michie, Susan; Yardley, Lucy

2015-05-05

Healthcare workers (HCWs) are encouraged to get vaccinated during influenza pandemics to reduce their own, and patients', risk of infection, and to encourage their patients to get immunised. Despite extensive research on HCWs' receipt of vaccination, little is known about how HCWs articulate pandemic influenza vaccination advice to patients. To explore HCWs' uptake of the A/H1N1 vaccine during the pandemic of 2009-2010, their recommendations to patients at the time, and their anticipated choices around influenza vaccination under different pandemic scenarios. We conducted semi-structured interviews and focus groups with eight vaccinated and seventeen non-vaccinated HCWs from primary care practices in England. The data was analysed using thematic analysis. The HCWs constructed their receipt of vaccination as a personal choice informed by personal health history and perceptions of vaccine safety, while they viewed patients' vaccination as choices made following informed consent and medical guidelines. Some HCWs received the A/H1N1 vaccine under the influence of their local practice organizational norms and values. While non-vaccinated HCWs regarded patients' vaccination as patients' choice, some vaccinated HCWs saw it also as a public health issue. The non-vaccinated HCWs emphasised that they would not allow their personal choices to influence the advice they gave to patients, whereas some vaccinated HCWs believed that by getting vaccinated themselves they could provide a reassuring example to patients, particularly those who have concerns about influenza vaccination. All HCWs indicated they would accept vaccination under the severe pandemic scenario. However, most non-vaccinated HCWs expressed reticence to vaccinate under the mild pandemic scenario. Providing evidence-based arguments about the safety of new vaccines and the priority of public health over personal choice, and creating strong social norms for influenza vaccination as part of the organizational culture, should increase uptake of influenza vaccination among primary care HCWs and their patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model.

PubMed

Huang, Xiaodong; Clements, Archie C A; Williams, Gail; Mengersen, Kerrie; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

2016-04-01

A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 across Queensland over the epidemic period. High random effects of estimated transmission rates were apparent in remote areas and some postal areas with higher proportion of indigenous populations and smaller overall populations. Local SEIFA and local atmospheric conditions were associated with the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009. The more populated regions displayed consistent and synchronized epidemics with low average transmission rates. The less populated regions had high average transmission rates with more variations during the H1N1 epidemic period. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deaths from bacterial pneumonia during 1918-19 influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Brundage, John F; Shanks, G Dennis

2008-08-01

Deaths during the 1918-19 influenza pandemic have been attributed to a hypervirulent influenza strain. Hence, preparations for the next pandemic focus almost exclusively on vaccine prevention and antiviral treatment for infections with a novel influenza strain. However, we hypothesize that infections with the pandemic strain generally caused self-limited (rarely fatal) illnesses that enabled colonizing strains of bacteria to produce highly lethal pneumonias. This sequential-infection hypothesis is consistent with characteristics of the 1918-19 pandemic, contemporaneous expert opinion, and current knowledge regarding the pathophysiologic effects of influenza viruses and their interactions with respiratory bacteria. This hypothesis suggests opportunities for prevention and treatment during the next pandemic (e.g., with bacterial vaccines and antimicrobial drugs), particularly if a pandemic strain-specific vaccine is unavailable or inaccessible to isolated, crowded, or medically underserved populations.

Information technology systems for critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic: a review of current systems.

PubMed

Bandayrel, Kristofer; Lapinsky, Stephen; Christian, Michael

2013-06-01

To assess local, state, federal, and global pandemic influenza preparedness by identifying pandemic plans at the local, state, federal, and global levels, and to identify any information technology (IT) systems in these plans to support critical care triage during an influenza pandemic in the Canadian province of Ontario. The authors used advanced MEDLINE and Google search strategies and conducted a comprehensive review of key pandemic influenza Web sites. Descriptive data extraction and analysis for IT systems were conducted on all of the included pandemic plans. A total of 155 pandemic influenza plans were reviewed: 29 local, 62 state, 63 federal, and 1 global. We found 70 plans that examined IT systems (10 local, 33 state, 26 federal, 1 global), and 85 that did not (19 local, 29 state, 37 federal). Of the 70 plans, 64 described surveillance systems (10 local, 32 state, 21 federal, 1 global), 2 described patient data collection systems (1 state, 1 federal); 4 described other types of IT systems (4 federal), and none were intended for triage. Although several pandemic plans have been drafted, the majority are high-level general documents that do not describe IT systems. The plans that discuss IT systems focus strongly on surveillance, which fails to recognize the needs of a health care system responding to an influenza pandemic. The best examples of the types of IT systems to guide decision making during a pandemic were found in the Kansas and the Czech Republic pandemic plans, because these systems were designed to collect both patient and surveillance data. Although Ontario has yet to develop such an IT system, several IT systems are in place that could be leveraged to support critical care triage and medical response during an influenza pandemic.

Using Clinical Research Networks to Assess Severity of an Emerging Influenza Pandemic.

PubMed

Simonsen, Lone; Higgs, Elizabeth; Taylor, Robert J; Wentworth, Deborah; Cozzi-Lepri, Al; Pett, Sarah; Dwyer, Dominic E; Davey, Richard; Lynfield, Ruth; Losso, Marcelo; Morales, Kathleen; Glesby, Marshall J; Weckx, Jozef; Carey, Dianne; Lane, Cliff; Lundgren, Jens

2018-05-08

Early clinical severity assessments during the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1) overestimated clinical severity due to selection bias and other factors. We retrospectively investigated how to use data from the International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, a global clinical influenza research network, to make more accurate case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates early in a future pandemic, an essential part of pandemic response. We estimated the CFR of medically attended influenza (CFRMA) as the product of probability of hospitalization given confirmed outpatient influenza and the probability of death given hospitalization with confirmed influenza for the pandemic (2009-2011) and post-pandemic (2012-2015) periods. We used literature survey results on health-seeking behavior to convert that estimate to CFR among all infected persons (CFRAR). During the pandemic period, 5.0% (3.1%-6.9%) of 561 pH1N1-positive outpatients were hospitalized. Of 282 pH1N1-positive inpatients, 8.5% (5.7%-12.6%) died. CFRMA for pH1N1 was 0.4% (0.2%-0.6%) in the pandemic period 2009-2011 but declined 5-fold in young adults during the post-pandemic period compared to the level of seasonal influenza in the post-pandemic period 2012-2015. CFR for influenza-negative patients did not change over time. We estimated the 2009 pandemic CFRAR to be 0.025%, 16-fold lower than CFRMA. Data from a clinical research network yielded accurate pandemic severity estimates, including increased severity among younger people. Going forward, clinical research networks with a global presence and standardized protocols would substantially aid rapid assessment of clinical severity. NCT01056354 and NCT010561.

Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in 66 Large Cities in the United States in Years Surrounding the 1918 Pandemic

PubMed Central

Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Viboud, Cécile; Chowell, Gerardo

2011-01-01

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; P<0.001). By contrast, there was a weak correlation between pre-pandemic and pandemic influenza mortality rates. Pneumonia mortality rates partially explained influenza mortality rates in 1918 (ρ = 0.34, P = 0.005) but not during any other year. Pneumonia death counts followed a linear relationship with population size in all study years, suggesting that pneumonia death rates were homogeneous across the range of population sizes studied. By contrast, influenza death counts followed a power law relationship with a scaling exponent of ∼0.81 (95%CI: 0.71, 0.91) in 1918, suggesting that smaller cities experienced worst outcomes during the pandemic. A linear relationship was observed for all other years. Our study suggests that mortality associated with the 1918–20 influenza pandemic was in part predetermined by pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates in 66 large US cities, perhaps through the impact of the physical and social structure of each city. Smaller cities suffered a disproportionately high per capita influenza mortality burden than larger ones in 1918, while city size did not affect pneumonia mortality rates in the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. PMID:21886792

Analysis of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 outcomes in 19 European countries: association with completeness of national strategic plans

PubMed Central

Meeyai, Aronrag; Cooper, Ben S; Coker, Richard

2013-01-01

Objective To describe changes in reported influenza activity associated with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in European countries and determine whether there is a correlation between these changes and completeness of national strategic pandemic preparedness. Design A retrospective correlational study. Setting Countries were included if their national strategic plans had previously been analysed and if weekly influenza-like illness (ILI) data from sentinel networks between week 21, 2006 and week 20, 2010 were more than 50% complete. Outcome measures For each country we calculated three outcomes: the percentage change in ILI peak height during the pandemic relative to the prepandemic mean; the timing of the ILI peak and the percentage change in total cases relative to the prepandemic mean. Correlations between these outcomes and completeness of a country's national strategic pandemic preparedness plan were assessed using the Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient. Results Nineteen countries were included. The ILI peak occurred earlier than the mean seasonal peak in 17 countries. In 14 countries the pandemic peak was higher than the seasonal peak, though the difference was large only in Norway, the UK and Greece. Nine countries experienced more total ILI cases during the pandemic compared with the mean for prepandemic years. Five countries experienced two distinct pandemic peaks. There was no clear pattern of correlation between overall completeness of national strategic plans and pandemic influenza outcome measures and no evidence of association between these outcomes and components of pandemic plans that might plausibly affect influenza outcomes (public health interventions, vaccination, antiviral use, public communication). Amongst the 17 countries with a clear pandemic peak, only the correlation between planning for essential services and change in total ILI cases significantly differed from zero: correlation coefficient (95% CI) 0.50 (0.02, 0.79). Conclusions The diversity of pandemic influenza outcomes across Europe is not explained by the marked variation in the completeness of pandemic plans. PMID:23524042

Were Equatorial Regions Less Affected by the 2009 Influenza Pandemic? The Brazilian Experience

PubMed Central

Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Moura, Fernanda E. A.; Fernandes, Roberto M.; Carvalho, Marcia L.; Alonso, Wladimir J.

2012-01-01

Although it is in the Tropics where nearly half of the world population lives and infectious disease burden is highest, little is known about the impact of influenza pandemics in this area. We investigated the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza pandemic relative to mortality rates from various outcomes in pre-pandemic years throughout a wide range of latitudes encompassing the entire tropical, and part of the subtropical, zone of the Southern Hemisphere (+5°N to −35°S) by focusing on a country with relatively uniform health care, disease surveillance, immunization and mitigation policies: Brazil. To this end, we analyzed laboratory-confirmed deaths and vital statistics mortality beyond pre-pandemic levels for each Brazilian state. Pneumonia, influenza and respiratory mortality were significantly higher during the pandemic, affecting predominantly adults aged 25 to 65 years. Overall, there were 2,273 and 2,787 additional P&I- and respiratory deaths during the pandemic, corresponding to a 5.2% and 2.7% increase, respectively, over average pre-pandemic annual mortality. However, there was a marked spatial structure in mortality that was independent of socio-demographic indicators and inversely related with income: mortality was progressively lower towards equatorial regions, where low or no difference from pre-pandemic mortality levels was identified. Additionally, the onset of pandemic-associated mortality was progressively delayed in equatorial states. Unexpectedly, there was no additional mortality from circulatory causes. Comparing disease burden reliably across regions is critical in those areas marked by competing health priorities and limited resources. Our results suggest, however, that tropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere may have been disproportionally less affected by the pandemic, and that climate may have played a key role in this regard. These findings have a direct bearing on global estimates of pandemic burden and the assessment of the role of immunological, socioeconomic and environmental drivers of the transmissibility and severity of this pandemic. PMID:22870262

Preparing for a Pandemic Flu Outbreak

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dittbenner, Richard

2009-01-01

This article discusses the things college leaders should know and do in case of a pandemic influenza outbreak. The author talks about four principles that will guide college leaders in developing a pandemic influenza plan and presents the 10 elements of an effective college pandemic planning process.

INFLUENZA SURVEILLANCE IN RUSSIA BASED ON EPIDEMIOLOGICAL AND LABORATORY DATA FOR THE PERIOD FROM 2005 TO 2012

PubMed Central

Anna, Sominina; Burtseva, Elena; Eropkin, Mikhail; Karpova, Ludmila; Zarubaev, Vladimir; Smorodintseva, Elizaveta; Konovalova, Nadezhda; Danilenko, Daria; Prokopetz, Alexandra; Grudinin, Mikhail; Pisareva, Maria; Anfimov, Pavel; Stolyarov, Kirill; Kiselev, Oleg; Shevchenko, Elena; Ivanova, Valeriya; Trushakova, Svetlana; Breslav, Nataliya; Lvov, Dmitriy; Klimov, Alexander; Moen, Ann; Cox, Nancy

2015-01-01

Exchange of information on and sharing of influenza viruses through the GISRS network has great significance for understanding influenza virus evolution, recognition of a new pandemic virus emergence and for preparing annual WHO recommendations on influenza vaccine strain composition. Influenza surveillance in Russia is based on collaboration of two NICs with 59 Regional Bases. Most epidemiological and laboratory data are entered through the internet into the electronic database at the Research Institute of Influenza (RII), where they are analyzed and then reported to the Ministry of Public Health of Russia. Simultaneously, data are introduced into WHO’s Flu Net and Euro Flu, both electronic databases. Annual influenza epidemics of moderate intensity were registered during four pre-pandemic seasons. Children aged 0–2 and 3–6 years were the most affected groups of the population. Influenza registered clinically among hospitalized patients with respiratory infections for the whole epidemic period varied between 1.3 and 5.4% and up but to 18.5–23.0% during the peak of the two pandemic waves caused by influenza A(H1N1) pdm 09 virus and to lesser extent (2.9 to 8.5%) during usual seasonal epidemics. Most epidemics were associated with influenza A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B co-circulation. During the two pandemic waves (in 2009–2010 and 2010–2011) influenza A(H1N1) pdm 09 predominated. It was accompanied by a rapid growth of influenza morbidity with a significant increase of both hospitalization and mortality. The new pandemic virus displaced the previous seasonal A(H1N1) virus completely. As a rule, most of the influenza viruses circulating in Russia were antigenic ally related to the strains recommended by WHO for vaccine composition for the Northern hemisphere with the exception of two seasons when an unexpected replacement of the influenza B Victoria lineage by Yamagata lineage (2007–2008) and the following return of Victoria lineage viruses (2008–2009) was registered. Influenza surveillance in Russia was improved as a result of enhancing capacity to international standards and the introduction of new methods in NICs such as rRT-PCR diagnosis, regular testing of influenza viruses for susceptibility to antivirals, phylogenetic analysis as well as organization of sentinel surveillance in a number of Regional Base Laboratories. Improvements promoted rapid recognition of the appearance a new pandemic virus in the country and enhancement of confirmation tests in investigation of influenza related death cases. PMID:26561480

Potential of Complementary and Alternative Medicine in Preventive Management of Novel H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) Pandemic: Thwarting Potential Disasters in the Bud

PubMed Central

Arora, Rajesh; Chawla, R.; Marwah, Rohit; Arora, P.; Sharma, R. K.; Kaushik, Vinod; Goel, R.; Kaur, A.; Silambarasan, M.; Tripathi, R. P.; Bhardwaj, J. R.

2011-01-01

The emergence of novel H1N1 has posed a situation that warrants urgent global attention. Though antiviral drugs are available in mainstream medicine for treating symptoms of swine flu, currently there is no preventive medicine available. Even when available, they would be in short supply and ineffective in a pandemic situation, for treating the masses worldwide. Besides the development of drug resistance, emergence of mutant strains of the virus, emergence of a more virulent strain, prohibitive costs of available drugs, time lag between vaccine developments, and mass casualties would pose difficult problems. In view of this, complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) offers a plethora of interesting preventive possibilities in patients. Herbs exhibit a diverse array of biological activities and can be effectively harnessed for managing pandemic flu. Potentially active herbs can serve as effective anti influenza agents. The role of CAM for managing novel H1N1 flu and the mode of action of these botanicals is presented here in an evidence-based approach that can be followed to establish their potential use in the management of influenza pandemics. The complementary and alternative medicine approach deliberated in the paper should also be useful in treating the patients with serious influenza in non pandemic situations. PMID:20976081

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of the 2009 A/H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Peru

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Munayco, Cesar V.; Gómez, Jorge; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Tamerius, James; Fiestas, Victor; Halsey, Eric S.; Laguna-Torres, Victor A.

2011-01-01

Background Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. Methods We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and their association with the winter school vacation period, demographic factors, and absolute humidity. We also estimated the reproduction number and quantified the association between the winter school vacation period and the age distribution of cases. Results The national pandemic curve revealed a bimodal winter pandemic wave, with the first peak limited to school age children in the Lima metropolitan area, and the second peak more geographically widespread. The reproduction number was estimated at 1.6–2.2 for the Lima metropolitan area and 1.3–1.5 in the rest of Peru. We found a significant association between the timing of the school vacation period and changes in the age distribution of cases, while earlier pandemic onset was correlated with large population size. By contrast there was no association between pandemic dynamics and absolute humidity. Conclusions Our results indicate substantial spatial variation in pandemic patterns across Peru, with two pandemic waves of varying timing and impact by age and region. Moreover, the Peru data suggest a hierarchical transmission pattern of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 driven by large population centers. The higher reproduction number of the first pandemic wave could be explained by high contact rates among school-age children, the age group most affected during this early wave. PMID:21712984

The Evaluations of Swine Flu Magnitudes in TV News: A Comparative Analysis of Paired Influenza Pandemics.

PubMed

Pan, Po-Lin; Meng, Juan

2015-01-01

This study examined how major TV news networks covered two flu pandemics in 1976 and 2009 in terms of news frames, mortality exemplars, mortality subject attributes, vaccination, evaluation approaches, and news sources. Results showed that the first pandemic was frequently framed with the medical/scientific and political/legal issues, while the second pandemic was emphasized with the health risk issue in TV news. Both flu pandemics were regularly reported with mortality exemplars, but the focus in the first pandemic was on the flu virus threat and vaccination side effects, while the vaccination shortage was frequently revealed in the second outbreak.

Integrating pharmacies into public health program planning for pandemic influenza vaccine response.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Thomas J; Kang, Yoonjae; Bridges, Carolyn B; Talbert, Todd; Vagi, Sara J; Lamont, Brock; Graitcer, Samuel B

2016-11-04

During an influenza pandemic, to achieve early and rapid vaccination coverage and maximize the benefit of an immunization campaign, partnerships between public health agencies and vaccine providers are essential. Immunizing pharmacists represent an important group for expanding access to pandemic vaccination. However, little is known about nationwide coordination between public health programs and pharmacies for pandemic vaccine response planning. To assess relationships and planning activities between public health programs and pharmacies, we analyzed data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention assessments of jurisdictions that received immunization and emergency preparedness funding from 2012 to 2015. Forty-seven (88.7%) of 53 jurisdictions reported including pharmacies in pandemic vaccine distribution plans, 24 (45.3%) had processes to recruit pharmacists to vaccinate, and 16 (30.8%) of 52 established formal relationships with pharmacies. Most jurisdictions plan to allocate less than 10% of pandemic vaccine supply to pharmacies. While most jurisdictions plan to include pharmacies as pandemic vaccine providers, work is needed to establish formalized agreements between public health departments and pharmacies to improve pandemic preparedness coordination and ensure that vaccinating pharmacists are fully utilized during a pandemic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The timing and targeting of treatment in influenza pandemics influences the emergence of resistance in structured populations.

PubMed

Althouse, Benjamin M; Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Goerg, Georg M; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent

2013-01-01

Antiviral resistance in influenza is rampant and has the possibility of causing major morbidity and mortality. Previous models have identified treatment regimes to minimize total infections and keep resistance low. However, the bulk of these studies have ignored stochasticity and heterogeneous contact structures. Here we develop a network model of influenza transmission with treatment and resistance, and present both standard mean-field approximations as well as simulated dynamics. We find differences in the final epidemic sizes for identical transmission parameters (bistability) leading to different optimal treatment timing depending on the number initially infected. We also find, contrary to previous results, that treatment targeted by number of contacts per individual (node degree) gives rise to more resistance at lower levels of treatment than non-targeted treatment. Finally we highlight important differences between the two methods of analysis (mean-field versus stochastic simulations), and show where traditional mean-field approximations fail. Our results have important implications not only for the timing and distribution of influenza chemotherapy, but also for mathematical epidemiological modeling in general. Antiviral resistance in influenza may carry large consequences for pandemic mitigation efforts, and models ignoring contact heterogeneity and stochasticity may provide misleading policy recommendations.

Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics?

PubMed

Qu, Jiangwen

2016-09-01

The 2009 AH1N1 pandemic became a global health concern, although fortunately, its worst anticipated effects were not realised. While the origins of such outbreaks remain poorly understood, it is very important to identify the precipitating factors in their emergence so that future pandemics can be detected as quickly as possible. Methords: Descriptive epidemiology was used to analyse the association between influenza pandemics and possible pandemics and relative number of sunspots. Non-conditional logistic regression was performed to analyse the statistical association between sunspot extremes and influenza pandemics to within plus or minus 1 year. Almost all recorded influenza/possible pandemics have occurred in time frames corresponding to sunspot extremes, or +/- 1 year within such extremes. These periods were identified as important risk factors in both possible and confirmed influenza pandemics (odds ratio: 3.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.08 to 13.85). Extremes of sunspot activity to within plus or minus 1 year may precipitate influenza pandemics. Mechanisms of epidemic initiation and early spread are discussed including primary causation by externally derived viral variants (from space via cometary dust). Efforts to construct a comprehensive early warning system for potential influenza and other viral pandemics that include analysis of sunspot activity and stratospheric sampling for viral variants should be supported. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modeling the potential of different countries for pandemic spread over the global air network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Zhe; Lv, Baolei; Xu, Bing

2017-04-01

Air network plays an important role in the spread of global epidemics due to its superior speed and range. Understanding the disease transmission pattern via network is the foundation for the prevention and control of future pandemics. In this study, we measured the potential of different countries for the pandemic spread by using a disease transmission model which integrated inter-country air traffic flow and geographic distance. The model was verified on the spread pattern of 2003 SARS, 2009 H1N1 influenza and 2014 Ebola by setting starting point at China, Mexico and Guinea respectively. Results showed that the model well reproduced the spread direction during the early stage as the time course were in good agreement with the reported arrival dates. Then the model was used to simulate the potential risk of each country in spreading the disease as the origin country. We observed that countries in North America, Europe and East Asia had the highest risk of transmission considering their high degree in the air network. We also found that for most starting countries, United States, United Kingdom, Germany and France would become the most-important spreading cores. Compared with empirical Susceptible-Infectious-Recover model, this model could respond much faster to the disease spread with no need for empirical disease transmission parameters.

Pandemic Ventilator Rationing and Appeals Processes

PubMed Central

Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

2014-01-01

In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans. PMID:20354793

Pandemic ventilator rationing and appeals processes.

PubMed

Patrone, Daniel; Resnik, David

2011-06-01

In a severe influenza pandemic, hospitals will likely experience serious and widespread shortages of patient pulmonary ventilators and of staff qualified to operate them. Deciding who will receive access to mechanical ventilation will often determine who lives and who dies. This prospect raises an important question whether pandemic preparedness plans should include some process by which individuals affected by ventilator rationing would have the opportunity to appeal adverse decisions. However, the issue of appeals processes to ventilator rationing decisions has been largely neglected in state pandemic planning efforts. If we are to devise just and effective plans for coping with a severe influenza pandemic, more attention to the issue of appeals processes for pandemic ventilator rationing decisions is needed. Arguments for and against appeals processes are considered, and some suggestions are offered to help efforts at devising more rational pandemic preparedness plans.

Legal Preparedness

PubMed Central

Courtney, Brooke; Hodge, James G.; Toner, Eric S.; Roxland, Beth E.; Penn, Matthew S.; Devereaux, Asha V.; Dichter, Jeffrey R.; Kissoon, Niranjan; Christian, Michael D.; Powell, Tia

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Significant legal challenges arise when health-care resources become scarce and population-based approaches to care are implemented during severe disasters and pandemics. Recent emergencies highlight the serious legal, economic, and health impacts that can be associated with responding in austere conditions and the critical importance of comprehensive, collaborative health response system planning. This article discusses legal suggestions developed by the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Task Force for Mass Critical Care to support planning and response efforts for mass casualty incidents involving critically ill or injured patients. The suggestions in this chapter are important for all of those involved in a pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. METHODS Following the CHEST Guidelines Oversight Committee’s methodology, the Legal Panel developed 35 key questions for which specific literature searches were then conducted. The literature in this field is not suitable to provide support for evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process resulting in seven final suggestions. RESULTS Acceptance is widespread for the health-care community’s duty to appropriately plan for and respond to severe disasters and pandemics. Hospitals, public health entities, and clinicians have an obligation to develop comprehensive, vetted plans for mass casualty incidents involving critically ill or injured patients. Such plans should address processes for evacuation and limited appeals and reviews of care decisions. To legitimize responses, deter independent actions, and trigger liability protections, mass critical care (MCC) plans should be formally activated when facilities and practitioners shift to providing MCC. Adherence to official MCC plans should contribute to protecting hospitals and practitioners who act in good faith from liability. Finally, to address anticipated staffing shortages during severe and prolonged disasters and pandemics, governments should develop approaches to formally expand the availability of qualified health-care workers, such as through using official foreign medical teams. CONCLUSIONS As a fundamental element of health-care and public health emergency planning and preparedness, the law underlies critical aspects of disaster and pandemic responses. Effective responses require comprehensive advance planning efforts that include assessments of complex legal issues and authorities. Recent disasters have shown that although law is a critical response tool, it can also be used to hold health-care stakeholders who fail to appropriately plan for or respond to disasters and pandemics accountable for resulting patient or staff harm. Claims of liability from harms allegedly suffered during disasters and pandemics cannot be avoided altogether. However, appropriate planning and legal protections can help facilitate sound, consistent decision-making and support response participation among health-care entities and practitioners. PMID:25144203

Infectious diseases: Surveillance, genetic modification and simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koh, H. L.; Teh, S.Y.; De Angelis, D. L.; Jiang, J.

2011-01-01

Infectious diseases such as influenza and dengue have the potential of becoming a worldwide pandemic that may exert immense pressures on existing medical infrastructures. Careful surveillance of these diseases, supported by consistent model simulations, provides a means for tracking the disease evolution. The integrated surveillance and simulation program is essential in devising effective early warning systems and in implementing efficient emergency preparedness and control measures. This paper presents a summary of simulation analysis on influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Malaysia. This simulation analysis provides insightful lessons regarding how disease surveillance and simulation should be performed in the future. This paper briefly discusses the controversy over the experimental field release of genetically modified (GM) Aedes aegypti mosquito in Malaysia. Model simulations indicate that the proposed release of GM mosquitoes is neither a viable nor a sustainable control strategy. ?? 2011 WIT Press.

Community Assessment Tool for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HCTT-CHE

The Community Assessment Tool (CAT) for Public Health Emergencies Including Pandemic Influenza (hereafter referred to as the CAT) was developed as a result of feedback received from several communities. These communities participated in workshops focused on influenza pandemic planning and response. The 2008 through 2011 workshops were sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Feedback during those workshops indicated the need for a tool that a community can use to assess its readiness for a disaster—readiness from a total healthcare perspective, not just hospitals, but the whole healthcare system. The CAT intends to do just that—help strengthenmore » existing preparedness plans by allowing the healthcare system and other agencies to work together during an influenza pandemic. It helps reveal each core agency partners' (sectors) capabilities and resources, and highlights cases of the same vendors being used for resource supplies (e.g., personal protective equipment [PPE] and oxygen) by the partners (e.g., public health departments, clinics, or hospitals). The CAT also addresses gaps in the community's capabilities or potential shortages in resources. While the purpose of the CAT is to further prepare the community for an influenza pandemic, its framework is an extension of the traditional all-hazards approach to planning and preparedness. As such, the information gathered by the tool is useful in preparation for most widespread public health emergencies. This tool is primarily intended for use by those involved in healthcare emergency preparedness (e.g., community planners, community disaster preparedness coordinators, 9-1-1 directors, hospital emergency preparedness coordinators). It is divided into sections based on the core agency partners, which may be involved in the community's influenza pandemic influenza response.« less

Talking to the people that really matter about their participation in pandemic clinical research: A qualitative study in four European countries.

PubMed

Gobat, Nina H; Gal, Micaela; Butler, Christopher C; Webb, Steve A R; Francis, Nicholas A; Stanton, Helen; Anthierens, Sibyl; Bastiaens, Hilde; Godycki-Ćwirko, Maciek; Kowalczyk, Anna; Pons-Vigués, Mariona; Pujol-Ribera, Enriqueta; Berenguera, Anna; Watkins, Angela; Sukumar, Prasanth; Moore, Ronald G; Hood, Kerenza; Nichol, Alistair

2018-02-01

Pandemics of new and emerging infectious diseases are unpredictable, recurrent events that rapidly threaten global health and security. We aimed to identify public views regarding provision of information and consent to participate in primary and critical care clinical research during a future influenza-like illness pandemic. Descriptive-interpretive qualitative study, using focus groups (n = 10) and semi-structured interviews (n = 16), with 80 members of the public (>18 years) in Belgium, Spain, Poland and the UK. Local qualitative researchers followed a scenario-based topic guide to collect data. Data were transcribed verbatim, translated into English and subject to framework analysis. Public understandings of pandemics were shaped by personal factors (illness during the previous H1N1 pandemic, experience of life-threatening illness) and social factors (historical references, media, public health information). Informants appreciated safeguards provided by ethically robust research procedures, but current enrolment procedures were seen as a barrier. They proposed simplified enrolment processes for higher risk research and consent waiver for certain types of low-risk research. Decision making about research participation was influenced by contextual, research and personal factors. Informants generally either carefully weighed up various approaches to research participation or responded instinctively. They supported the principle of using routinely collected, anonymized clinical biological samples for research without explicit consent, but regarded this as less acceptable if researchers were motivated primarily by commercial gain. This bottom-up approach to ascertaining public views on pandemic clinical research has identified support for more proportionate research protection procedures for publically funded, low-risk studies. © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Obstetricians and the 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination effort: implications for future pandemics.

PubMed

Clark, Sarah J; Cowan, Anne E; Wortley, Pascale M

2013-09-01

Our objective was to describe the experiences of obstetricians during the 2009-2010 H1N1 vaccination campaign in order to identify possible improvements for future pandemic situations. We conducted a cross-sectional mail survey of a national random sample of 4,000 obstetricians, fielded in Summer 2010. Survey items included availability, recommendation, and patient acceptance of H1N1 vaccine; prioritization of H1N1 vaccine when supply was limited; problems with H1N1 vaccination; and likelihood of providing vaccine during a future influenza pandemic. Response rate was 66 %. Obstetricians strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine during the second (85 %) and third (86 %) trimesters, and less often during the first trimester (71 %) or the immediate postpartum period (76 %); patient preferences followed a similar pattern. H1N1 vaccine was typically available in outpatient obstetrics clinics (80 %). Overall vaccine supply was a major problem for 30 % of obstetricians, but few rated lack of thimerosal-free vaccine as a major problem (12 %). Over half of obstetricians had no major problems with the H1N1 vaccine campaign. Based on this experience, 74 % would be "very likely" and 12 % "likely" to provide vaccine in the event of a future influenza pandemic. Most obstetricians strongly recommended H1N1 vaccine, had few logistical problems beyond limited vaccine supply, and are willing to vaccinate in a future pandemic. Addressing concerns about first-trimester vaccination, developing guidance for prioritization of vaccine in the event of severe supply constraints, and continued facilitation of the logistical aspects of vaccination should be emphasized in future influenza pandemics.

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Evacuation payments during a pandemic... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

The Global Physical Inactivity Pandemic: An Analysis of Knowledge Production

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piggin, Joe; Bairner, Alan

2016-01-01

In July 2012, "The Lancet" announced a pandemic of physical inactivity and a global call to action to effect change. The worldwide pandemic is said to be claiming millions of lives every year. Asserting that physical inactivity is pandemic is an important moment. Given the purported scale and significance of physical inactivity around…

Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat.

PubMed

Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C; Daszak, Peter

2014-12-30

Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral "One Health" pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual.

Economic optimization of a global strategy to address the pandemic threat

PubMed Central

Pike, Jamison; Bogich, Tiffany; Elwood, Sarah; Finnoff, David C.; Daszak, Peter

2014-01-01

Emerging pandemics threaten global health and economies and are increasing in frequency. Globally coordinated strategies to combat pandemics, similar to current strategies that address climate change, are largely adaptive, in that they attempt to reduce the impact of a pathogen after it has emerged. However, like climate change, mitigation strategies have been developed that include programs to reduce the underlying drivers of pandemics, particularly animal-to-human disease transmission. Here, we use real options economic modeling of current globally coordinated adaptation strategies for pandemic prevention. We show that they would be optimally implemented within 27 y to reduce the annual rise of emerging infectious disease events by 50% at an estimated one-time cost of approximately $343.7 billion. We then analyze World Bank data on multilateral “One Health” pandemic mitigation programs. We find that, because most pandemics have animal origins, mitigation is a more cost-effective policy than business-as-usual adaptation programs, saving between $344.0.7 billion and $360.3 billion over the next 100 y if implemented today. We conclude that globally coordinated pandemic prevention policies need to be enacted urgently to be optimally effective and that strategies to mitigate pandemics by reducing the impact of their underlying drivers are likely to be more effective than business as usual. PMID:25512538

Outbreak of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 in Nepal.

PubMed

Adhikari, Bal Ram; Shakya, Geeta; Upadhyay, Bishnu Prasad; Prakash Kc, Khagendra; Shrestha, Sirjana Devi; Dhungana, Guna Raj

2011-03-23

The 2009 flu pandemic is a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 has posed a serious public health challenge world-wide. Nepal has started Laboratory diagnosis of Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 from mid June 2009 though active screening of febrile travellers with respiratory symptoms was started from April 27, 2009. Out of 609 collected samples, 302 (49.6%) were Universal Influenza A positive. Among the influenza A positive samples, 172(28.3%) were positive for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 and 130 (21.3%) were Seasonal influenza A. Most of the pandemic cases (53%) were found among young people with ≤ 20 years. Case Fatality Ratio for Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 in Nepal was 1.74%. Upon Molecular characterization, all the isolated pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel influenza A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type. The Pandemic 2009 influenza virus found in Nepal were antigenically and genetically related to the novel A/CALIFORNIA/07/2009-LIKE (H1N1)v type.

Data for decision making: strategic information tools for hospital management during a pandemic.

PubMed

Farias, Daniel R; Raffo, Lucrecia; Bacigalupo, Silvia; Cremaschi, Maria; Vence, Liliana; Ramos, Susana; Salguero, Ana; Claudio, Martin; Meites, Elissa; Cubito, Alejandro

2010-10-01

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Argentina's Hospital Nacional Profesor Alejandro Posadas, a referral center in the capital province of Buenos Aires, treated a large urban patient population. Beginning in April, after severe influenza had been reported in North America but before any suspected cases of H1N1 had been reported in Argentina, the authors formed a pandemic planning committee to direct our hospital's response. An important strategy of the management team was to create a single daily monitoring tool that could integrate multiple information sources. We describe our pandemic planning strategy so that it may serve as a template for other hospitals. We describe our integrated data management system and the indicators it measured. We also describe the iterative process used to develop these tools and the current versions we use in surveillance for possible new waves of pandemic influenza. We present 3 examples of strategic decision making applied to data from our integrated information system. Daily pandemic surveillance data motivated the planning committee to reallocate hospital resources to care for patients during the peak pandemic period. This report illustrates the importance of pandemic planning and advanced integrated information tools for management of a health care facility during a pandemic.

Reviewing the History of Pandemic Influenza: Understanding Patterns of Emergence and Transmission

PubMed Central

Saunders-Hastings, Patrick R.; Krewski, Daniel

2016-01-01

For centuries, novel strains of influenza have emerged to produce human pandemics, causing widespread illness, death, and disruption. There have been four influenza pandemics in the past hundred years. During this time, globalization processes, alongside advances in medicine and epidemiology, have altered the way these pandemics are experienced. Drawing on international case studies, this paper provides a review of the impact of past influenza pandemics, while examining the evolution of our understanding of, and response to, these viruses. This review argues that pandemic influenza is in part a consequence of human development, and highlights the importance of considering outbreaks within the context of shifting global landscapes. While progress in infectious disease prevention, control, and treatment has improved our ability to respond to such outbreaks, globalization processes relating to human behaviour, demographics, and mobility have increased the threat of pandemic emergence and accelerated global disease transmission. Preparedness planning must continue to evolve to keep pace with this heightened risk. Herein, we look to the past for insights on the pandemic experience, underlining both progress and persisting challenges. However, given the uncertain timing and severity of future pandemics, we emphasize the need for flexible policies capable of responding to change as such emergencies develop. PMID:27929449

Pandemic controllability: a concept to guide a proportionate and flexible operational response to future influenza pandemics.

PubMed

McCaw, J M; Glass, K; Mercer, G N; McVernon, J

2014-03-01

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic posed challenges for governments worldwide. Strategies designed to limit community transmission, such as antiviral deployment, were largely ineffective due to both feasibility constraints and the generally mild nature of disease, resulting in incomplete case ascertainment. Reviews of national pandemic plans have identified pandemic impact, primarily linked to measures of transmissibility and severity, as a key concept to incorporate into the next generation of plans. While an assessment of impact provides the rationale under which interventions may be warranted, it does not directly provide an assessment on whether particular interventions may be effective. Such considerations motivate our introduction of the concept of pandemic controllability. For case-targeted interventions, such as antiviral treatment and post-exposure prophylaxis, we identify the visibility and transmissibility of a pandemic as the key drivers of controllability. Taking a case-study approach, we suggest that high-impact pandemics, for which control is most desirable, are likely uncontrollable with case-targeted interventions. Strategies that do not rely on the identification of cases may prove relatively more effective. By introducing a pragmatic framework for relating the assessment of impact to the ability to mitigate an epidemic (controllability), we hope to address a present omission identified in pandemic response plans.

Ethics for pandemics beyond influenza: Ebola, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and anticipating future ethical challenges in pandemic preparedness and response.

PubMed

Smith, Maxwell J; Silva, Diego S

2015-01-01

The unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa has raised several novel ethical issues for global outbreak preparedness. It has also illustrated that familiar ethical issues in infectious disease management endure despite considerable efforts to understand and mitigate such issues in the wake of past outbreaks. To improve future global outbreak preparedness and response, we must examine these shortcomings and reflect upon the current state of ethical preparedness. To this end, we focus our efforts in this article on the examination of one substantial area: ethical guidance in pandemic plans. We argue that, due in part to their focus on considerations arising specifically in relation to pandemics of influenza origin, pandemic plans and their existing ethical guidance are ill-equipped to anticipate and facilitate the navigation of unique ethical challenges that may arise in other infectious disease pandemics. We proceed by outlining three reasons why this is so, and situate our analysis in the context of the EVD outbreak and the threat posed by drug-resistant tuberculosis: (1) different infectious diseases have distinct characteristics that challenge anticipated or existing modes of pandemic prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, (2) clear, transparent, context-specific ethical reasoning and justification within current influenza pandemic plans are lacking, and (3) current plans neglect the context of how other significant pandemics may manifest. We conclude the article with several options for reflecting upon and ultimately addressing ethical issues that may emerge with different infectious disease pandemics.

US school/academic institution disaster and pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Elliott, Michael B; Reddick, Dave; D Swick, Zachary

2012-09-01

School pandemic preparedness is essential, but has not been evaluated. An online survey was sent to school nurses (from state school nurse associations and/or state departments of education) between May and July 2011. Overall school pandemic preparedness scores were calculated by assigning 1 point for each item in the school's pandemic plan; the maximum score was 11. Linear regression was used to describe factors associated with higher school pandemic preparedness scores. Nurse influenza vaccine uptake was assessed as well. A total of 1,997 nurses from 26 states completed the survey. Almost three-quarters (73.7%; n = 1,472) reported receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2010-11 season. Very few (2.2%; n = 43) reported that their school/district had a mandatory influenza vaccination policy. Pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0 to 10 points, with an average score of 4.3. Determinants of school pandemic preparedness were as follows: planning to be a point of dispensing during a future pandemic (P < .001), having experienced multiple student or employee hospitalizations and/or deaths related to H1N1 during the pandemic (P = .01 or <.05, respectively), having a lead nurse complete the survey (P < .001), and having the school nurse study participant be a member of the school disaster planning committee (P < .001). US schools must continue to address gaps in pandemic planning. Copyright © 2012 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Production of adenovirus vectors and their use as a delivery system for influenza vaccines

PubMed Central

Vemula, Sai V.; Mittal, Suresh K.

2010-01-01

IMPORTANCE OF THE FIELD With the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses that have crossed species barriers and are responsible for lethal infections in humans in many countries, there is an urgent need for the development of effective vaccines which can be produced in large quantities at a short notice and confer broad protection against these H5N1 variants. In order to meet the potential global vaccine demand in a pandemic scenario, new vaccine-production strategies must be explored in addition to the currently used egg-based technology for seasonal influenza. AREAS COVERED IN THIS REVIEW Adenovirus (Ad) based influenza vaccines represent an attractive alternative/supplement to the currently licensed egg-based influenza vaccines. Ad-based vaccines are relatively inexpensive to manufacture, and their production process does not require either chicken eggs or labor intensive and time-consuming processes necessitating enhanced biosafety facilities. Most importantly, in a pandemic situation, this vaccine strategy could offer a stockpiling option to reduce the response time before a strain-matched vaccine could be developed. WHAT THE READER WILL GAIN This review discusses Ad-vector technology and the current progress in the development of Ad-based influenza vaccines. TAKE HOME MESSAGE Ad vector-based influenza vaccines for pandemic preparedness are under development to meet the global vaccine demand. PMID:20822477

An Assessment of Hickam Air Force Base's Capability to Support Strategic Airlift Throughput when Operating under an Avian Flu Pandemic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brigantic, Robert T.; Campbell, James R.; Doctor, Pamela G.

Hickam Air Force Base (AFB), Hawaii provides an ideal waypoint for U.S. strategic airlift aircraft to refuel and receive other services on their way to Northeast and Southeast Asia from the continental United States. Hickam AFB also serves as a critical aerial port of debarkation (APOD) for deploying U.S. forces and equipment to more distant lands as needed. Making use of the United States Transportation Command’s Aerial Port of Debarkation Plus model, this paper examines the ability of Hickam AFB to serve in its important role as an APOD when operating under the effects of a major avian flu pandemic.more » In this regard, the major influence on Hickam AFB will be a serious degradation to the number of available personnel to service aircraft and operate Hickam AFB’s aerial port. It is noted that the results presented herein are based on simplistic attrition rate assumptions. Nonetheless, it is envisioned that this work is applicable to more realistic input attrition rates as avian flu epidemiological models are refined, as well as attrition associated with other types of contagious pandemic disease or willful biological warfare attack.« less

Impact of School Cycles and Environmental Forcing on the Timing of Pandemic Influenza Activity in Mexican States, May-December 2009.

PubMed

Tamerius, James; Viboud, Cécile; Shaman, Jeffrey; Chowell, Gerardo

2015-08-01

While a relationship between environmental forcing and influenza transmission has been established in inter-pandemic seasons, the drivers of pandemic influenza remain debated. In particular, school effects may predominate in pandemic seasons marked by an atypical concentration of cases among children. For the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Mexico is a particularly interesting case study due to its broad geographic extent encompassing temperate and tropical regions, well-documented regional variation in the occurrence of pandemic outbreaks, and coincidence of several school breaks during the pandemic period. Here we fit a series of transmission models to daily laboratory-confirmed influenza data in 32 Mexican states using MCMC approaches, considering a meta-population framework or the absence of spatial coupling between states. We use these models to explore the effect of environmental, school-related and travel factors on the generation of spatially-heterogeneous pandemic waves. We find that the spatial structure of the pandemic is best understood by the interplay between regional differences in specific humidity (explaining the occurrence of pandemic activity towards the end of the school term in late May-June 2009 in more humid southeastern states), school vacations (preventing influenza transmission during July-August in all states), and regional differences in residual susceptibility (resulting in large outbreaks in early fall 2009 in central and northern Mexico that had yet to experience fully-developed outbreaks). Our results are in line with the concept that very high levels of specific humidity, as present during summer in southeastern Mexico, favor influenza transmission, and that school cycles are a strong determinant of pandemic wave timing.

Knowledge about pandemic influenza and compliance with containment measures among Australians.

PubMed

Eastwood, Keith; Durrheim, David; Francis, J Lynn; d'Espaignet, Edouard Tursan; Duncan, Sarah; Islam, Fakhrul; Speare, Rick

2009-08-01

To examine the level of stated compliance with public health pandemic influenza control measures and explore factors influencing cooperation for pandemic influenza control in Australia. A computer-assisted telephone interview survey was conducted by professional interviewers to collect information on the Australian public's knowledge of pandemic influenza and willingness to comply with public health control measures. The sample was randomly selected using an electronic database and printed telephone directories to ensure sample representativeness from all Australian states and territories. After we described pandemic influenza to the respondents to ensure they understood the significance of the issue, the questions on compliance were repeated and changes in responses were analysed with McNemar's test for paired data Only 23% of the 1166 respondents demonstrated a clear understanding of the term 'pandemic influenza'. Of those interviewed, 94.1% reported being willing to comply with home quarantine; 94.2%, to avoid public events; and 90.7%, to postpone social gatherings. After we explained the meaning of 'pandemic' to interviewees, stated compliance increased significantly (to 97.5%, 98.3% and 97.2% respectively). Those who reported being unfamiliar with the term 'pandemic influenza,' male respondents and employed people not able to work from home were less willing to comply. In Australia, should the threat arise, compliance with containment measures against pandemic influenza is likely to be high, yet it could be further enhanced through a public education programme conveying just a few key messages. A basic understanding of pandemic influenza is associated with stated willingness to comply with containment measures. Investing now in promoting measures to prepare for a pandemic or other health emergency will have considerable value.

Pandemic Flu

MedlinePlus

... Address What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other Pandemic Influenza Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

Difference in immune response in vaccinated and unvaccinated Swedish individuals after the 2009 influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Previous exposures to flu and subsequent immune responses may impact on 2009/2010 pandemic flu vaccine responses and clinical symptoms upon infection with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza strain. Qualitative and quantitative differences in humoral and cellular immune responses associated with the flu vaccination in 2009/2010 (pandemic H1N1 vaccine) and natural infection have not yet been described in detail. We designed a longitudinal study to examine influenza- (flu-) specific immune responses and the association between pre-existing flu responses, symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), impact of pandemic flu infection, and pandemic flu vaccination in a cohort of 2,040 individuals in Sweden in 2009–2010. Methods Cellular flu-specific immune responses were assessed by whole-blood antigen stimulation assay, and humoral responses by a single radial hemolysis test. Results Previous seasonal flu vaccination was associated with significantly lower flu-specific IFN-γ responses (using a whole-blood assay) at study entry. Pandemic flu vaccination induced long-lived T-cell responses (measured by IFN-γ production) to influenza A strains, influenza B strains, and the matrix (M1) antigen. In contrast, individuals with pandemic flu infection (PCR positive) exhibited increased flu-specific T-cell responses shortly after onset of ILI symptoms but the immune response decreased after the flu season (spring 2010). We identified non-pandemic-flu vaccinated participants without ILI symptoms who showed an IFN-γ production profile similar to pandemic-flu infected participants, suggesting exposure without experiencing clinical symptoms. Conclusions Strong and long-lived flu-M1 specific immune responses, defined by IFN-γ production, in individuals after vaccination suggest that M1-responses may contribute to protective cellular immune responses. Silent flu infections appeared to be frequent in 2009/2010. The pandemic flu vaccine induced qualitatively and quantitatively different humoral and cellular immune responses as compared to infection with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic H1N1 influenza strain. PMID:24916787

Pandemic and post-pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) infection in critically ill patients

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background There is a vast amount of information published regarding the impact of 2009 pandemic Influenza A (pH1N1) virus infection. However, a comparison of risk factors and outcome during the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period has not been described. Methods A prospective, observational, multi-center study was carried out to evaluate the clinical characteristics and demographics of patients with positive RT-PCR for H1N1 admitted to 148 Spanish intensive care units (ICUs). Data were obtained from the 2009 pandemic and compared to the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period. Results Nine hundred and ninety-seven patients with confirmed An/H1N1 infection were included. Six hundred and forty-eight patients affected by 2009 (pH1N1) virus infection and 349 patients affected by the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period were analyzed. Patients during the post-pandemic period were older, had more chronic comorbid conditions and presented with higher severity scores (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)) on ICU admission. Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period received empiric antiviral treatment less frequently and with delayed administration. Mortality was significantly higher in the post-pandemic period. Multivariate analysis confirmed that haematological disease, invasive mechanical ventilation and continuous renal replacement therapy were factors independently associated with worse outcome in the two periods. HIV was the only new variable independently associated with higher ICU mortality during the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period. Conclusion Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period had an unexpectedly higher mortality rate and showed a trend towards affecting a more vulnerable population, in keeping with more typical seasonal viral infection. PMID:22126648

Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) infection in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Martin-Loeches, Ignacio; Díaz, Emili; Vidaur, Loreto; Torres, Antoni; Laborda, Cesar; Granada, Rosa; Bonastre, Juan; Martín, Mar; Insausti, Josu; Arenzana, Angel; Guerrero, Jose Eugenio; Navarrete, Ines; Bermejo-Martin, Jesus; Suarez, David; Rodriguez, Alejandro

2011-01-01

There is a vast amount of information published regarding the impact of 2009 pandemic Influenza A (pH1N1) virus infection. However, a comparison of risk factors and outcome during the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period has not been described. A prospective, observational, multi-center study was carried out to evaluate the clinical characteristics and demographics of patients with positive RT-PCR for H1N1 admitted to 148 Spanish intensive care units (ICUs). Data were obtained from the 2009 pandemic and compared to the 2010-2011 post-pandemic period. Nine hundred and ninety-seven patients with confirmed An/H1N1 infection were included. Six hundred and forty-eight patients affected by 2009 (pH1N1) virus infection and 349 patients affected by the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period were analyzed. Patients during the post-pandemic period were older, had more chronic comorbid conditions and presented with higher severity scores (Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA)) on ICU admission. Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period received empiric antiviral treatment less frequently and with delayed administration. Mortality was significantly higher in the post-pandemic period. Multivariate analysis confirmed that haematological disease, invasive mechanical ventilation and continuous renal replacement therapy were factors independently associated with worse outcome in the two periods. HIV was the only new variable independently associated with higher ICU mortality during the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period. Patients from the post-pandemic Influenza (H1N1)v infection period had an unexpectedly higher mortality rate and showed a trend towards affecting a more vulnerable population, in keeping with more typical seasonal viral infection.

A comparison of H1N1 influenza among pediatric inpatients in the pandemic and post pandemic era.

PubMed

Rao, Suchitra; Torok, Michelle R; Bagdure, Dayanand; Cunningham, Maureen A; Williams, Joshua T B; Curtis, Donna J; Wilson, Karen; Dominguez, Samuel R

2015-10-01

The novel influenza A H1N1 (A[H1N1]pdm09) strain emerged in 2009, contributing to significant morbidity and mortality. It is not known whether illness associated with A(H1N1) pdm09 in the post-pandemic era exhibits a similar disease profile. The objectives of this study were to compare the burden of disease of A(H1N1) pdm09 influenza from the 2009 pandemic year to the post-pandemic years (2010-2014), and to explore potential reasons for any differences. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of inpatients admitted to Children's Hospital Colorado with a positive respiratory specimen for influenza from May-December, 2009 and December, 2010-April, 2014. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to compare the demographics and clinical characteristics of patients with H1N1 during the two periods. There were 388 inpatients with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 in 2009, and 117 during the post-pandemic years. Ninety-four percent of all H1N1 during the post-pandemic era was observed during the 2013-2014 influenza season. Patients with A(H1N1) pdm09 during the post-pandemic year were less likely to have an underlying medical condition (P<0.01). Patients admitted to the ICU during the post-pandemic year had a lower median age (5 vs 8 years, P=0.01) and a lower proportion of patients were intubated, had mental status changes, and ARDS compared with the pandemic years, (P<0.01 for all), with decreased mortality (P=0.02). Patients with influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 during the post-pandemic years appeared to have less severe disease than patients with A(H1N1) pdm09 during the pandemic year. The reasons for this difference are likely multifactorial. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Global mortality estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR project: a modeling study.

PubMed

Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J; Fleming, Douglas M; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D; Mounts, Anthony W; Paget, W John

2013-11-01

Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005-2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%-85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000-249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010-2012). We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Simonsen, Lone; Spreeuwenberg, Peter; Lustig, Roger; Taylor, Robert J.; Fleming, Douglas M.; Kroneman, Madelon; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.; Mounts, Anthony W.; Paget, W. John

2013-01-01

Background Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ∼35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in persons <65 y. Limitations include lack of representation of low-income countries among single-country estimates and an inability to study subsequent pandemic waves (2010–2012). Conclusions We estimate that 2009 global pandemic respiratory mortality was ∼10-fold higher than the World Health Organization's laboratory-confirmed mortality count. Although the pandemic mortality estimate was similar in magnitude to that of seasonal influenza, a marked shift toward mortality among persons <65 y of age occurred, so that many more life-years were lost. The burden varied greatly among countries, corroborating early reports of far greater pandemic severity in the Americas than in Australia, New Zealand, and Europe. A collaborative network to collect and analyze mortality and hospitalization surveillance data is needed to rapidly establish the severity of future pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:24302890

Spreading of Pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus O3:K6 and Its Serovariants: A Re-analysis of Strains Isolated from Multiple Studies.

PubMed

Han, Dongsheng; Yu, Fei; Tang, Hui; Ren, Chuanli; Wu, Caiyun; Zhang, Pan; Han, Chongxu

2017-01-01

In China, V. parahaemolyticus has been a leading cause of foodborne outbreaks and bacterial infectious diarrhea since the 1990s, and most infections have been associated with the pandemic V. parahaemolyticus O3:K6 and its serovariants. However, a comprehensive overview of the sero-prevalence and genetic diversity of the pandemic V. parahaemolyticus clone in China is lacking. To compensate for this deficiency, pandemic isolates in both clinical and environmental Chinese samples collected from multiple studies were analyzed in this study. Surprisingly, as many as 27 clinical pandemic serovariants were identified and were widely distributed across nine coastal provinces and two inland provinces (Beijing and Sichuan). O3:K6, O4:K68, and O1:KUT represented the predominant clinical serovars. Only four environmental pandemic serovariants had previously been reported, and they were spread throughout Shanghai (O1:KUT, O3:K6), Jiangsu (O3:K6, O4:K48), Zhejiang (O3:K6), and Guangdong (O4:K9). Notably, 24 pandemic serovariants were detected within a short time frame (from 2006 to 2012). The pandemic isolates were divided into 15 sequence types (STs), 10 of which fell within clonal complex (CC) 3. Only three STs (ST3, ST192, and ST305) were identified in environmental isolates. Substantial serotypic diversity was mainly observed among isolates within pandemic ST3, which comprised 21 combinations of O/K antigens. The pandemic O3:K6 serotype showed a high level of sequence diversity, which was shared by eight different STs (ST3, ST227, ST431, ST435, ST487, ST489, ST526, and ST672). Antimicrobial susceptibility testing revealed that most isolates shared similar antibiotic susceptibility profiles. They were resistant to ampicillin but sensitive to most other drugs that were tested. In conclusion, the high levels of serotypic and genetic diversity of the pandemic clone suggest that the involved regions are becoming important reservoirs for the emergence of novel pandemic strains. We underscore the need for routine monitoring to prevent pandemic V. parahaemolyticus infection, which includes monitoring antimicrobial responses to avoid excessive misuse of antibiotics. Further investigations are also needed to delineate the specific mechanisms underlying the possible seroconversion of pandemic isolates.

Barriers to pandemic influenza vaccination and uptake of seasonal influenza vaccine in the post-pandemic season in Germany.

PubMed

Böhmer, Merle M; Walter, Dietmar; Falkenhorst, Gerhard; Müters, Stephan; Krause, Gérard; Wichmann, Ole

2012-10-31

In Germany, annual vaccination against seasonal influenza is recommended for certain target groups (e.g. persons aged ≥60 years, chronically ill persons, healthcare workers (HCW)). In season 2009/10, vaccination against pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, which was controversially discussed in the public, was recommended for the whole population. The objectives of this study were to assess vaccination coverage for seasonal (seasons 2008/09-2010/11) and pandemic influenza (season 2009/10), to identify predictors of and barriers to pandemic vaccine uptake and whether the controversial discussions on pandemic vaccination has had a negative impact on seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in Germany. We analysed data from the 'German Health Update' (GEDA10) telephone survey (n=22,050) and a smaller GEDA10-follow-up survey (n=2,493), which were both representative of the general population aged ≥18 years living in Germany. Overall only 8.8% of the adult population in Germany received a vaccination against pandemic influenza. High socioeconomic status, having received a seasonal influenza shot in the previous season, and belonging to a target group for seasonal influenza vaccination were independently associated with the uptake of pandemic vaccines. The main reasons for not receiving a pandemic vaccination were 'fear of side effects' and the opinion that 'vaccination was not necessary'. Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in the pre-pandemic season 2008/09 was 52.8% among persons aged ≥60 years; 30.5% among HCW, and 43.3% among chronically ill persons. A decrease in vaccination coverage was observed across all target groups in the first post-pandemic season 2010/11 (50.6%, 25.8%, and 41.0% vaccination coverage, respectively). Seasonal influenza vaccination coverage in Germany remains in all target groups below 75%, which is a declared goal of the European Union. Our results suggest that controversial public discussions about safety and the benefits of pandemic influenza vaccination may have contributed to both a very low uptake of pandemic vaccines and a decreased uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines in the first post-pandemic season. In the upcoming years, the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccines should be carefully monitored in all target groups to identify if this trend continues and to guide public health authorities in developing more effective vaccination and communication strategies for seasonal influenza vaccination.

Comparative community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza: results of the Flu Watch cohort study.

PubMed

Hayward, Andrew C; Fragaszy, Ellen B; Bermingham, Alison; Wang, Lili; Copas, Andrew; Edmunds, W John; Ferguson, Neil; Goonetilleke, Nilu; Harvey, Gabrielle; Kovar, Jana; Lim, Megan S C; McMichael, Andrew; Millett, Elizabeth R C; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S; Nazareth, Irwin; Pebody, Richard; Tabassum, Faiza; Watson, John M; Wurie, Fatima B; Johnson, Anne M; Zambon, Maria

2014-06-01

Assessment of the effect of influenza on populations, including risk of infection, illness if infected, illness severity, and consultation rates, is essential to inform future control and prevention. We aimed to compare the community burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza across different age groups and study years and gain insight into the extent to which traditional surveillance underestimates this burden. Using preseason and postseason serology, weekly illness reporting, and RT-PCR identification of influenza from nasal swabs, we tracked the course of seasonal and pandemic influenza over five successive cohorts (England 2006-11; 5448 person-seasons' follow-up). We compared burden and severity of seasonal and pandemic strains. We weighted analyses to the age and regional structure of England to give nationally representative estimates. We compared symptom profiles over the first week of illness for different strains of PCR-confirmed influenza and non-influenza viruses using ordinal logistic regression with symptom severity grade as the outcome variable. Based on four-fold titre rises in strain-specific serology, on average influenza infected 18% (95% CI 16-22) of unvaccinated people each winter. Of those infected there were 69 respiratory illnesses per 100 person-influenza-seasons compared with 44 per 100 in those not infected with influenza. The age-adjusted attributable rate of illness if infected was 23 illnesses per 100 person-seasons (13-34), suggesting most influenza infections are asymptomatic. 25% (18-35) of all people with serologically confirmed infections had PCR-confirmed disease. 17% (10-26) of people with PCR-confirmed influenza had medically attended illness. These figures did not differ significantly when comparing pandemic with seasonal influenza. Of PCR-confirmed cases, people infected with the 2009 pandemic strain had markedly less severe symptoms than those infected with seasonal H3N2. Seasonal influenza and the 2009 pandemic strain were characterised by similar high rates of mainly asymptomatic infection with most symptomatic cases self-managing without medical consultation. In the community the 2009 pandemic strain caused milder symptoms than seasonal H3N2. Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust. Copyright © 2014 Hayward et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Fire Fighters’ Ability and Willingness to Participate in a Pandemic

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-03-01

Death Associated with Moderate and Severe Pandemic Influenza Scenarios* .........61 Table 13. Vaccine Priority Group Recommendations...Department of Heath and Human Services’ Pandemic Influenza Plan calculates plans for a clinical attack rate (the rate at which the disease will...occurs. 4 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS), HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan

[Importance of health CRM in pandemics and health alerts].

PubMed

Cubillas, Juan José; Ramos, María Isabel; Feito, Francisco R; González, José María; Gersol, Rafael; Ramos, María Belén

2015-05-01

The aim of this article is to demonstrate the importance of the role a health CRM can play in a pandemic or health alert. During the influenza-A pandemic, Salud Responde played a very important role. Its main objective was to establish protocols and citizens advice lines that would avoid patients with mild influenza-A symptoms going to health centre. A triage system was developed around the Siebel CRM (software tool) to achieve this objective. This allowed the Salud Responde staff to establish the severity of the patient depending on the symptoms and the risk factors of the patient, as well as being able to inform, give health advice or refer the patient to medical centres if necessary. All patients (a total of 56,497) who were attended by Salud Responde within its influenza-A service portfolio have been included. Patients who were attended by Salud Responde. The data have been extracted from the Salud Responde data base. Salud Responde attended to 56,497 patients during the influenza-A pandemic, of whom 48,287 patients did not require health care. Salud Responde attended to 56,497 patients, of whom 48,287 patients did not require health care. Apart from any financial savings that this could entail, it contributed to minimising the pandemic, avoiding the patient having to go to a health centre to receive medical care or information, and prevented, to a great extent, the flooding of casualty departments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Virus-Like Particle Vaccine Protects against 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus in Mice

PubMed Central

Quan, Fu-Shi; Vunnava, Aswani; Compans, Richard W.; Kang, Sang-Moo

2010-01-01

Background The 2009 influenza pandemic and shortages in vaccine supplies worldwide underscore the need for new approaches to develop more effective vaccines. Methodology/Principal Findings We generated influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) containing proteins derived from the A/California/04/2009 virus, and tested their efficacy as a vaccine in mice. A single intramuscular vaccination with VLPs provided complete protection against lethal challenge with the A/California/04/2009 virus and partial protection against A/PR/8/1934 virus, an antigenically distant human isolate. VLP vaccination induced predominant IgG2a antibody responses, high hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers, and recall IgG and IgA antibody responses. HAI titers after VLP vaccination were equivalent to those observed after live virus infection. VLP immune sera also showed HAI responses against diverse geographic pandemic isolates. Notably, a low dose of VLPs could provide protection against lethal infection. Conclusion/Significance This study demonstrates that VLP vaccination provides highly effective protection against the 2009 pandemic influenza virus. The results indicate that VLPs can be developed into an effective vaccine, which can be rapidly produced and avoid the need to isolate high growth reassortants for egg-based production. PMID:20161790

Federal and state public health authority and mandatory vaccination: is Jacobson v Massachusetts still valid?

PubMed

Marshall, Lewis W; Marshall, Brenda L; Valladares, Glenn

2010-01-01

Novel H1N1 influenza virus infected more than 43,000 people, killed 353 and spread to more than 122 countries within a few months. The World Health Organization declared a stage 6 worldwide pandemic. Healthcare workers and hospitals prepared for the worst. Federal and State regulations provided the legal framework to allow for the preparation and planning for a pandemic. One State had mandated both seasonal and Novel H1N1 vaccination of all healthcare workers in an effort to reduce transmission of influenza in healthcare facilities. The US Supreme Court decided in 1905 that the police power of the State permitted a State Department of Health the leeway to mandate vaccination in the face of a contagious disease. Law suits were filed, and a temporary injunction barring mandatory vaccination was entered by the court. While awaiting a court hearing, the mandatory vaccination regulation was rescinded because of the shortage of both seasonal and H1N1 vaccine. Based on the current state of the pandemic and the shortage of vaccination, it is possible that the US Supreme Court would uphold mandatory vaccination in a pandemic.

Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-06-01

The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean: an epidemiological overview.

PubMed

Boisson, E V; Des Vignes, F; Quesnel, S

2013-07-01

To describe epidemiological trends of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the English and Dutch-speaking Caribbean during the pandemic period. Data on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths associated with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) contained in two regional databases at the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre (CAREC) were analysed. The data sources were epidemiological and laboratory reports from English and Dutch-speaking countries and the CAREC laboratory information system (LABIS). In the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean, pandemic influenza A (H1N1) was the predominant circulating influenza virus type during the pandemic period. There were three distinct phases: a first pandemic wave during mid-April to end of August 2009 (734 cases), a second pandemic wave during September-December 2009 (570 cases) and a phase of low transmission during January to mid-August 2010 (55 cases). The majority of cases (76%) were aged less than 30 years, with children of school age being most affected. Most cases (89%) presented with symptoms of the respiratory tract and smaller proportions (20-40%) presented with gastrointestinal and other symptoms. No cases tested were resistant to oseltamivir. A quarter of cases required hospitalization and the case fatality rate was 1.8%. The epidemiological characteristics of the pandemic in the English- and Dutch-speaking Caribbean were consistent with that in other parts of the world. It is important that post pandemic surveillance (epidemiological and virological) for respiratory illnesses continues to be enhanced in order to give a better understanding of seasonality and changing trends in respiratory illnesses and their aetiologic agents.

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of human influenza viruses in domestic cats.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Mahmoud; Ali, Ahmed; Daniels, Joshua B; Lee, Chang-Won

2016-12-30

The continuous exposure of cats to diverse influenza viruses raises the concern of a potential role of cats in the epidemiology of these viruses. Our previous seroprevalence study of domestic cat sera collected during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic wave (September 2009-September 2010) revealed a high prevalence of pandemic H1N1, as well as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 human flu virus infection (22.5%, 33.0%, and 43.5%, respectively). In this study, we extended the serosurvey of influenza viruses in cat sera collected post-pandemic (June 2011-August 2012). A total of 432 cat sera were tested using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. The results showed an increase in pandemic H1N1 prevalence (33.6%) and a significant reduction in both seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 prevalence (10.9% and 17.6%, respectively) compared to our previous survey conducted during the pandemic wave. The pandemic H1N1 prevalence in cats showed an irregular seasonality pattern in the post-pandemic phase. Pandemic H1N1 reactivity was more frequent among female cats than male cats. In contrast to our earlier finding, no significant association between clinical respiratory disease and influenza virus infection was observed. Our study highlights a high susceptibility among cats to human influenza virus infection that is correlated with influenza prevalence in the human population.

Introduction and executive summary: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Christian, Michael D; Devereaux, Asha V; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Rubinson, Lewis; Kissoon, Niranjan

2014-10-01

Natural disasters, industrial accidents, terrorism attacks, and pandemics all have the capacity to result in large numbers of critically ill or injured patients. This supplement provides suggestions for all of those involved in a disaster or pandemic with multiple critically ill patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, professional societies, and public health or government officials. The current Task Force included a total of 100 participants from nine countries, comprised of clinicians and experts from a wide variety of disciplines. Comprehensive literature searches were conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert-opinion-based suggestions that are presented in this supplement using a modified Delphi process. The ultimate aim of the supplement is to expand the focus beyond the walls of ICUs to provide recommendations for the management of all critically ill or injured adults and children resulting from a pandemic or disaster wherever that care may be provided. Considerations for the management of critically ill patients include clinical priorities and logistics (supplies, evacuation, and triage) as well as the key enablers (systems planning, business continuity, legal framework, and ethical considerations) that facilitate the provision of this care. The supplement also aims to illustrate how the concepts of mass critical care are integrated across the spectrum of surge events from conventional through contingency to crisis standards of care.

Development and approval of live attenuated influenza vaccines based on Russian master donor viruses: Process challenges and success stories.

PubMed

Rudenko, Larisa; Yeolekar, Leena; Kiseleva, Irina; Isakova-Sivak, Irina

2016-10-26

Influenza is a viral infection that affects much of the global population each year. Vaccination remains the most effective tool for preventing the disease. Live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) has been used since the 1950s to protect humans against seasonal influenza. LAIVs developed by the Institute of Experimental Medicine (IEM), Saint Petersburg, Russia, have been successfully used in Russia since 1987. In 2006, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a Global action plan for influenza vaccines (GAP). WHO, recognizing potential advantages of LAIV over the inactivated influenza vaccine in a pandemic situation, included LAIV in the GAP. BioDiem Ltd., a vaccine development company based in Melbourne, Australia which held the rights for the Russian LAIV, licensed this technology to WHO in 2009. WHO was permitted to grant sub-licenses to vaccine manufacturers in newly industrialized and developing countries to use the Russian LAIV for the development, manufacture, use and sale of pandemic and seasonal LAIVs. To date, WHO has granted sub-licenses to vaccine manufacturers in China (Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co., Ltd.), India (Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd.) and Thailand (Government Pharmaceutical Organization). In parallel, in 2009, IEM signed an agreement with WHO, under which IEM committed to supply pandemic and seasonal candidate vaccine viruses to the sub-licensees. This paper describes the progress made by collaborators from China, India, Russia and Thailand in developing preventive measures, including LAIV against pandemic influenza. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring and Characterization of Oseltamivir-Resistant Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus, Japan, 2009–2010

PubMed Central

Ujike, Makoto; Ejima, Miho; Anraku, Akane; Shimabukuro, Kozue; Obuchi, Masatsugu; Kishida, Noriko; Hong, Xu; Takashita, Emi; Fujisaki, Seiichiro; Yamashita, Kazuyo; Horikawa, Hiroshi; Kato, Yumiko; Oguchi, Akio; Fujita, Nobuyuki; Tashiro, Masato

2011-01-01

To monitor and characterize oseltamivir-resistant (OR) pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus with the H275Y mutation, we analyzed 4,307 clinical specimens from Japan by neuraminidase (NA) sequencing or inhibition assay; 61 OR pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses were detected. NA inhibition assay and M2 sequencing indicated that OR pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus was resistant to M2 inhibitors, but sensitive to zanamivir. Full-genome sequencing showed OR and oseltamivir-sensitive (OS) viruses had high sequence similarity, indicating that domestic OR virus was derived from OS pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. Hemagglutination inhibition test demonstrated that OR and OS pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses were antigenically similar to the A/California/7/2009 vaccine strain. Of 61 case-patients with OR viruses, 45 received oseltamivir as treatment, and 10 received it as prophylaxis, which suggests that most cases emerged sporadically from OS pandemic (H1N1) 2009, due to selective pressure. No evidence of sustained spread of OR pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was found in Japan; however, 2 suspected incidents of human-to-human transmission were reported. PMID:21392439

Prevention and control of avian influenza: the need for a paradigm shift in pandemic influenza preparedness.

PubMed

Martinot, A; Thomas, J; Thiermann, A; Dasgupta, N

2007-03-10

Avian influenza presents both challenges and opportunities to leaders around the world engaged in pandemic influenza preparedness planning. Most resource-poor countries will be unable to stockpile antivirals or have access to eventual human vaccines for pandemic flu. Preparedness plans, directed at controlling avian influenza at the source, enable countries simultaneously to promote national and global health, animal welfare and international development. Improving the veterinary infrastructure and capacity of resource-poor countries is one way to prevent potential pandemic flu deaths in resource-rich countries. In this article, Amanda Martinot, James Thomas, Alejandro Thiermann and Nabarun Dasgupta argue that national health leaders need to consider more comprehensive strategies that incorporate veterinary surveillance and improvements in veterinary infrastructure for the control of avian influenza epizootics as part of national pandemic preparedness planning. This, they argue, will require a shift in attitude, from thinking in terms of preparation for an inevitable pandemic to pre-emption of the potential pandemic through prevention measures in the animal population.

Estimating the incidence reporting rates of new influenza pandemics at an early stage using travel data from the source country.

PubMed

Chong, K C; Fong, H F; Zee, C Y

2014-05-01

During the surveillance of influenza pandemics, underreported data are a public health challenge that complicates the understanding of pandemic threats and can undermine mitigation efforts. We propose a method to estimate incidence reporting rates at early stages of new influenza pandemics using 2009 pandemic H1N1 as an example. Routine surveillance data and statistics of travellers arriving from Mexico were used. Our method incorporates changes in reporting rates such as linearly increasing trends due to the enhanced surveillance. From our results, the reporting rate was estimated at 0·46% during early stages of the pandemic in Mexico. We estimated cumulative incidence in the Mexican population to be 0·7% compared to 0·003% reported by officials in Mexico at the end of April. This method could be useful in estimation of actual cases during new influenza pandemics for policy makers to better determine appropriate control measures.

Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment

PubMed Central

Lipsitch, Marc; Barclay, Wendy; Raman, Rahul; Russell, Charles J; Belser, Jessica A; Cobey, Sarah; Kasson, Peter M; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Maurer-Stroh, Sebastian; Riley, Steven; Beauchemin, Catherine AA; Bedford, Trevor; Friedrich, Thomas C; Handel, Andreas; Herfst, Sander; Murcia, Pablo R; Roche, Benjamin; Wilke, Claus O; Russell, Colin A

2016-01-01

The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18491.001 PMID:27834632

Reducing Occurrence and Severity of Pneumonia Due to Pandemic H1N1 2009 by Early Oseltamivir Administration: A Retrospective Study in Mexico

PubMed Central

Higuera Iglesias, Anjarath Lorena; Kudo, Koichiro; Manabe, Toshie; Corcho Berdugo, Alexander Enrique; Baeza, Ariel Corrales; Ramos, Leticia Alfaro; Gutiérrez, René Guevara; Manjarrez Zavala, María Eugenia; Takasaki, Jin; Izumi, Shinyu; Bautista, Edgar; Perez Padilla, José Rogelio

2011-01-01

Background Anti-viral treatment has been used to treat severe or progressive illness due to pandemic H1N1 2009. A main cause of severe illness in pandemic H1N1 2009 is viral pneumonia; however, it is unclear how effective antiviral treatment is against pneumonia when administered >48 hours after symptom onset. Therefore, we aimed to determine how time from symptom onset to antiviral administration affected the effectiveness of antiviral treatment against pneumonia due to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods/Principal Findings A retrospective medical chart review of 442 patients was conducted in a hospital in Mexico. Subjects had tested positive for pandemic H1N1 2009 virus by real-time reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction and were administered oseltamivir. Median time from symptom onset to oseltamivir administration was 5.0 days (range, 0–43). 442 subjects, 71 (16.1%) had severe pneumonia which required mechanical ventilation, 191 (43.2%) had mild to moderate pneumonia, and 180 (40%) did not have pneumonia. Subjects were divided into four groups based on time to oseltamivir administration: ≤2, 3–7, 8–14, and >14 days. Severity of respiratory features was associated with time to treatment, and multivariate analysis indicated that time to oseltamivir administration was associated with severity of respiratory features. A proportional odds model indicated that 50% probability for occurrence of pneumonia of any severity and that of severe pneumonia in patients who would develop pneumonia reached at approximately 3.4 and 21 days, respectively, after symptom onset. Patients with a shorter time to oseltamivir administration were discharged earlier from the hospital. Conclusions Earlier initiation of oseltamivir administration after symptom onset significantly reduced occurrence and severity of pneumonia and shortened hospitalization due to pandemic H1N1 2009. Even when administered >48 hours after symptom onset, oseltamivir showed considerable potential for reducing pneumonia. Application of these results would benefit patients affected by future influenza pandemics. PMID:21760915

Ethical considerations: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Biddison, Lee Daugherty; Berkowitz, Kenneth A; Courtney, Brooke; De Jong, Col Marla J; Devereaux, Asha V; Kissoon, Niranjan; Roxland, Beth E; Sprung, Charles L; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Christian, Michael D; Powell, Tia

2014-10-01

Mass critical care entails time-sensitive decisions and changes in the standard of care that it is possible to deliver. These circumstances increase provider uncertainty as well as patients' vulnerability and may, therefore, jeopardize disciplined, ethical decision-making. Planning for pandemics and disasters should incorporate ethics guidance to support providers who may otherwise make ad hoc patient care decisions that overstep ethical boundaries. This article provides consensus-developed suggestions about ethical challenges in caring for the critically ill or injured during pandemics or disasters. The suggestions in this article are important for all of those involved in any pandemic or disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. We adapted the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Guidelines Oversight Committee's methodology to develop suggestions. Twenty-four key questions were developed, and literature searches were conducted to identify evidence for suggestions. The detailed literature reviews produced 144 articles. Based on their expertise within this domain, panel members also supplemented the literature search with governmental publications, interdisciplinary workgroup consensus documents, and other information not retrieved through PubMed. The literature in this field is not suitable to support evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. We report the suggestions that focus on five essential domains: triage and allocation, ethical concerns of patients and families, ethical responsibilities to providers, conduct of research, and international concerns. Ethics issues permeate virtually all aspects of pandemic and disaster response. We have addressed some of the most pressing issues, focusing on five essential domains: triage and allocation, ethical concerns of patients and families, ethical responsibilities to providers, conduct of research, and international concerns. Our suggestions reflect the consensus of the Task Force. We recognize, however, that some suggestions, including those related to end-of-life care, may be controversial. We highlight the need for additional research and dialogue in articulating values to guide health-care decisions during disasters.

Evidence for history-dependence of influenza pandemic emergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, Edward M.; Tildesley, Michael J.; House, Thomas

2017-03-01

Influenza A viruses have caused a number of global pandemics, with considerable mortality in humans. Here, we analyse the time periods between influenza pandemics since 1700 under different assumptions to determine whether the emergence of new pandemic strains is a memoryless or history-dependent process. Bayesian model selection between exponential and gamma distributions for these time periods gives support to the hypothesis of history-dependence under eight out of nine sets of modelling assumptions. Using the fitted parameters to make predictions shows a high level of variability in the modelled number of pandemics from 2010-2110. The approach we take here relies on limited data, so is uncertain, but it provides cheap, safe and direct evidence relating to pandemic emergence, a field where indirect measurements are often made at great risk and cost.

Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection: Evidence of competitive advantage of pandemic H1N1 influenza versus seasonal influenza.

PubMed

Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

2009-08-24

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains.

A Candidate H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Elicits Protective Immunity in Mice

PubMed Central

Steitz, Julia; Barlow, Peter G.; Hossain, Jaber; Kim, Eun; Okada, Kaori; Kenniston, Tom; Rea, Sheri; Donis, Ruben O.; Gambotto, Andrea

2010-01-01

Background In 2009 a new pandemic disease appeared and spread globally. The recent emergence of the pandemic influenza virus H1N1 first isolated in Mexico and USA raised concerns about vaccine availability. We here report our development of an adenovirus-based influenza H1N1 vaccine tested for immunogenicity and efficacy to confer protection in animal model. Methods We generated two adenovirus(Ad5)-based influenza vaccine candidates encoding the wildtype or a codon-optimized hemagglutinin antigen (HA) from the recently emerged swine influenza isolate A/California/04/2009 (H1N1)pdm. After verification of antigen expression, immunogenicity of the vaccine candidates were tested in a mouse model using dose escalations for subcutaneous immunization. Sera of immunized animals were tested in microneutalization and hemagglutination inhibition assays for the presence of HA-specific antibodies. HA-specific T-cells were measured in IFNγ Elispot assays. The efficiency of the influenza vaccine candidates were evaluated in a challenge model by measuring viral titer in lung and nasal turbinate 3 days after inoculation of a homologous H1N1 virus. Conclusions/Significance A single immunization resulted in robust cellular and humoral immune response. Remarkably, the intensity of the immune response was substantially enhanced with codon-optimized antigen, indicating the benefit of manipulating the genetic code of HA antigens in the context of recombinant influenza vaccine design. These results highlight the value of advanced technologies in vaccine development and deployment in response to infections with pandemic potential. Our study emphasizes the potential of an adenoviral-based influenza vaccine platform with the benefits of speed of manufacture and efficacy of a single dose immunization. PMID:20463955

Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza — United States, 2017

PubMed Central

Levitt, Alexandra; Kanade, Neha; Wright-Jegede, Narue; Dopson, Stephanie; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Reed, Carrie; Uzicanin, Amra; Levitt, Alexandra; Dopson, Stephanie; Frank, Mark; Holloway, Rachel; Koonin, Lisa; Rasmussen, Sonja; Redd, Stephen; de la Motte Hurst, Christopher; Kanade, Neha; Rainey, Jeanette; Uzicanin, Amra; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Jernigan, Daniel; Reed, Carrie

2017-01-01

Summary When a novel influenza A virus with pandemic potential emerges, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) often are the most readily available interventions to help slow transmission of the virus in communities, which is especially important before a pandemic vaccine becomes widely available. NPIs, also known as community mitigation measures, are actions that persons and communities can take to help slow the spread of respiratory virus infections, including seasonal and pandemic influenza viruses. These guidelines replace the 2007 Interim Pre-pandemic Planning Guidance: Community Strategy for Pandemic Influenza Mitigation in the United States — Early, Targeted, Layered Use of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425). Several elements remain unchanged from the 2007 guidance, which described recommended NPIs and the supporting rationale and key concepts for the use of these interventions during influenza pandemics. NPIs can be phased in, or layered, on the basis of pandemic severity and local transmission patterns over time. Categories of NPIs include personal protective measures for everyday use (e.g., voluntary home isolation of ill persons, respiratory etiquette, and hand hygiene); personal protective measures reserved for influenza pandemics (e.g., voluntary home quarantine of exposed household members and use of face masks in community settings when ill); community measures aimed at increasing social distancing (e.g., school closures and dismissals, social distancing in workplaces, and postponing or cancelling mass gatherings); and environmental measures (e.g., routine cleaning of frequently touched surfaces). Several new elements have been incorporated into the 2017 guidelines. First, to support updated recommendations on the use of NPIs, the latest scientific evidence available since the influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 pandemic has been added. Second, a summary of lessons learned from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic response is presented to underscore the importance of broad and flexible prepandemic planning. Third, a new section on community engagement has been included to highlight that the timely and effective use of NPIs depends on community acceptance and active participation. Fourth, to provide new or updated pandemic assessment and planning tools, the novel influenza virus pandemic intervals tool, the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool, the Pandemic Severity Assessment Framework, and a set of prepandemic planning scenarios are described. Finally, to facilitate implementation of the updated guidelines and to assist states and localities with prepandemic planning and decision-making, this report links to six supplemental prepandemic NPI planning guides for different community settings that are available online (https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions). PMID:28426646

[Estimation of the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after world war II: relation with pandemics and the vaccination system].

PubMed

Ohmi, Kenichi; Marui, Eiji

2011-10-01

To estimate the excess death associated with influenza pandemics and epidemics in Japan after World War II, and to reexamine the relationship between the excess death and the vaccination system in Japan. Using the Japanese national vital statistics data for 1952-2009, we specified months with influenza epidemics, monthly mortality rates and the seasonal index for 1952-74 and for 1975-2009. Then we calculated excess deaths of each month from the observed number of deaths and the 95% range of expected deaths. Lastly we calculated age-adjusted excess death rates using the 1985 model population of Japan. The total number of excess deaths for 1952-2009 was 687,279 (95% range, 384,149-970,468), 12,058 (95% range, 6,739-17,026) per year. The total number of excess deaths in 6 pandemic years of 1957-58, 58-59, 1968-69, 69-70, 77-78 and 78-79, was 95,904, while that in 51 'non-pandemic' years was 591,376, 6.17 fold larger than pandemic years. The average number of excess deaths for pandemic years was 23,976, nearly equal to that for 'non-pandemic' years, 23,655. At the beginning of pandemics, 1957-58, 1968-69, 1969-70, the proportion of those aged <65 years in excess deaths rose compared with 'non-pandemic' years. In the 1970s and 1980s, when the vaccination program for schoolchildren was mandatory in Japan on the basis of the "Fukumi thesis", age-adjusted average excess mortality rates were relatively low, with an average of 6.17 per hundred thousand. In the 1990s, when group vaccination was discontinued, age-adjusted excess mortality rose up to 9.42, only to drop again to 2.04 when influenza vaccination was made available to the elderly in the 2000s, suggesting that the vaccination of Japanese children prevented excess deaths from influenza pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, in the age group under 65, average excess mortality rates were low in the 1970s and 1980s rather than in the 2000s, which shows that the "Social Defensive" schoolchildren vaccination program in the 1970s and 1980s was more effective than the "Individual Defensive" vaccination program in the 2000s. Excess deaths were observed continually, and not limited to pandemic years. We must not slight public health interventions for 'non-pandemic' influenza as well as pandemic influenza. We should also re-examine the importance of "Social Defenses", including preventative vaccination, for public health policy.

Setting the Stage: Current State of Affairs and Major Challenges

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Steven J.; Quinn, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

The global human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic reached staggering proportions over the past 2 decades, particularly in areas of sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries. Tremendous increases in donor resources over the past decade have allowed for a rapid scale-up of antiretroviral treatment and greater access to basic care and prevention programs in countries worst affected by HIV infection and AIDS. These programs have had a tremendous impact on the lives of millions of individuals and have also created optimism and hope where previously there was despair. Major challenges remain in combating the current HIV pandemic with regard to access to treatment; efficiency, quality, and sustainability of current programs; and the scale-up of evidence-based, effective prevention strategies. The global health community and political leaders will need to overcome these challenges if a long-term effective response to the HIV pandemic is to be achieved. PMID:20397959

"It's as bad as anything can be": Patients, identity, and the influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Bristow, Nancy K

2010-04-01

Americans were stunned when pandemic influenza hit the United States in 1918. Recent advances in bacteriology and public health allowed Americans to imagine a future free of infectious disease, even as their familiarity with influenza tempered their fears of it. They soon realized this influenza was something unprecedented, as it shocked them with its pace, virulence, mortality patterns, and symptoms. Patients endured and frequently succumbed to a miserable illness, their suffering often made worse by the chaotic circumstances the epidemic produced in families and communities and shaped in significant and sometimes discriminatory ways by their gender, class, and race. While the nation's public culture soon forgot the epidemic, it lived on in lives changed irrevocably by its consequences. As they face present and future influenza pandemics, Americans can learn from this earlier experience, guarding against identity-based discrimination and acknowledging and remembering the grief and loss fellow citizens suffered.

Public preparedness guidance for a severe influenza pandemic in different countries: a qualitative assessment and critical overview

PubMed Central

Alonso, Wladimir J.; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia

2010-01-01

During a severe influenza pandemic individuals and families can, by following well-directed and scientifically-based measures, not only benefit themselves but also play an effective role in reducing transmission rates and the burden on public services. Such guidelines should be provided as clearly and comprehensively as possible by official sources. Here we examine the official recommendations issued by 10 countries to prepare their citizens for a severe pandemic. We have found the presence of hazardous guidelines – as the advice to personally visit a health center at the earliest symptoms – and shortage of practical advices for home isolation, business preparation and treatment to be widespread. Our review shows that, while many positive recommendations were provided, the set of recommendations issued by most countries was not comprehensive enough for severe influenza scenarios. This is a situation that needs revision PMID:20029666

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

PubMed

Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-09-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risk-Based Input-Output Analysis of Influenza Epidemic Consequences on Interdependent Workforce Sectors

PubMed Central

Santos, Joost R.; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-01-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This paper investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the National Capital Region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR region, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. PMID:23278756

Dynamic modelling of costs and health consequences of school closure during an influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The purpose of this article is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of school closure during a potential influenza pandemic and to examine the trade-off between costs and health benefits for school closure involving different target groups and different closure durations. Methods We developed two models: a dynamic disease model capturing the spread of influenza and an economic model capturing the costs and benefits of school closure. Decisions were based on quality-adjusted life years gained using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The disease model is an age-structured SEIR compartmental model based on the population of Oslo. We studied the costs and benefits of school closure by varying the age targets (kindergarten, primary school, secondary school) and closure durations (1–10 weeks), given pandemics with basic reproductive number of 1.5, 2.0 or 2.5. Results The cost-effectiveness of school closure varies depending on the target group, duration and whether indirect costs are considered. Using a case fatality rate (CFR) of 0.1-0.2% and with current cost-effectiveness threshold for Norway, closing secondary school is the only cost-effective strategy, when indirect costs are included. The most cost-effective strategies would be closing secondary schools for 8 weeks if R0=1.5, 6 weeks if R0=2.0, and 4 weeks if R0= 2.5. For severe pandemics with case fatality rates of 1-2%, similar to the Spanish flu, or when indirect costs are disregarded, the optimal strategy is closing kindergarten, primary and secondary school for extended periods of time. For a pandemic with 2009 H1N1 characteristics (mild severity and low transmissibility), closing schools would not be cost-effective, regardless of the age target of school children. Conclusions School closure has moderate impact on the epidemic’s scope, but the resulting disruption to society imposes a potentially great cost in terms of lost productivity from parents’ work absenteeism. PMID:23140513

Public Health Policy and Experience of the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in Pune, India

PubMed Central

Purohit, Vidula; Kudale, Abhay; Sundaram, Neisha; Joseph, Saju; Schaetti, Christian; Weiss, Mitchell G.

2018-01-01

Background: Prior experience and the persisting threat of influenza pandemic indicate the need for global and local preparedness and public health response capacity. The pandemic of 2009 highlighted the importance of such planning and the value of prior efforts at all levels. Our review of the public health response to this pandemic in Pune, India, considers the challenges of integrating global and national strategies in local programmes and lessons learned for influenza pandemic preparedness. Methods: Global, national and local pandemic preparedness and response plans have been reviewed. In-depth interviews were undertaken with district health policy-makers and administrators who coordinated the pandemic response in Pune. Results: In the absence of a comprehensive district-level pandemic preparedness plan, the response had to be improvised. Media reporting of the influenza pandemic and inaccurate information that was reported at times contributed to anxiety in the general public and to widespread fear and panic. Additional challenges included inadequate public health services and reluctance of private healthcare providers to treat people with flu-like symptoms. Policy-makers developed a response strategy that they referred to as the Pune plan, which relied on powers sanctioned by the Epidemic Act of 1897 and resources made available by the union health ministry, state health department and a government diagnostic laboratory in Pune. Conclusion: The World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) global strategy for pandemic control focuses on national planning, but state-level and local experience in a large nation like India shows how national planning may be adapted and implemented. The priority of local experience and requirements does not negate the need for higher level planning. It does, however, indicate the importance of local adaptability as an essential feature of the planning process. Experience and the implicit Pune plan that emerged are relevant for pandemic preparedness and other public health emergencies. PMID:29524939

Different features of influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection among adults in 2009/10 and 2010/11.

PubMed

Grgic, Svjetlana; Skocibusic, Sinisa; Celjuska-Tosev, Elvira; Nikolic, Jadranka; Arapovic, Jurica; Kuzman, Ilija

2016-02-28

Influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection causes an epidemiologically and clinically severe disease mostly characterized by pneumonia, resulting in a high mortality rate. The purpose of this study was to investigate and compare epidemiological and clinical characteristics of influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection in patients hospitalized during the pandemic (2009/10) and post-pandemic seasons (2010/11). The data of patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection hospitalized and treated at the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases Dr. Fran Mihaljevic in Zagreb, Croatia in the first two seasons of appearance were analyzed. Compared to the pandemic season, in the post-pandemic season, patients were hospitalized longer, had higher values of inflammatory parameters, and were more often treated with antibiotics. The total number of risk factors in patients did not vary significantly between the two seasons. In the pandemic season, a significantly higher number of obese patients and patients with chronic lung disease was observed, whereas in the post-pandemic season, a statistically significant number of patients presented with symptoms of chronic cardiac and neuromuscular diseases. Primary viral pneumonia was frequently registered in younger adults during the pandemic season, whereas in the post-pandemic season, there were more cases of bacterial pneumonia. During the pandemic season, the influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus infection caused a severe disease with rare bacterial complications, especially in adult patients. The common characteristics of the influenza A H1N1pdm09 virus were lost in the post-pandemic season, assuming the shape and characteristics of the seasonal influenza A virus.

Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season: the Nordic experience.

PubMed

Gil Cuesta, Julita; Aavitsland, Preben; Englund, Hélène; Gudlaugsson, Ólafur; Hauge, Siri Helene; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Sigmundsdóttir, Guðrún; Tegnell, Anders; Virtanen, Mikko; Krause, Tyra Grove

2016-04-21

During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model to compare those indicators between Denmark and the other countries. The vaccination coverage was lower in Denmark (6.1%) compared with Finland (48.2%), Iceland (44.1%), Norway (41.3%) and Sweden (60.0%). In 2009/10 Denmark had a similar cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions and deaths compared with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage and experienced less A(H1N1)pdm09-related severe outcomes in 2010/11. Pandemic vaccination may have had an impact on severe influenza outcomes in the post-pandemic season. Surveillance of severe outcomes may be used to compare the impact of influenza between seasons and support different vaccination strategies.

The 2009-2010 influenza pandemic: effects on pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptake and lessons learned for seasonal vaccination campaigns.

PubMed

Poland, Gregory A

2010-09-07

Individual and national/cultural differences were apparent in response to the 2009-2010 influenza pandemic. Overall pandemic influenza immunization rates were low across all nations, including among healthcare workers. Among the reasons for the low coverage rates may have been a lack of concern about the individual risk of influenza, which may translate into a lack of willingness or urgency to be vaccinated, particularly if there is mistrust of information provided by public health or governmental authorities. Intuitively, a link between willingness to be vaccinated against seasonal influenza and against pandemic influenza exists, given the similarities in decision-making for this infection. As such, the public is likely to share common concerns regarding pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccination, particularly in the areas of vaccine safety and side effects, and personal risk. Given the public's perception of the low level of virulence of the recent pandemic influenza virus, there is concern that the perception of a lack of personal risk of infection and risk of vaccine side effects could adversely affect seasonal vaccine uptake. While governments are more often concerned about public anxiety and panic, as well as absenteeism of healthcare and other essential workers during a pandemic, convincing the public of the threat posed by pandemic or seasonal influenza is often the more difficult, and underappreciated task. Thus, appropriate, timely, and data-driven health information are very important issues in increasing influenza vaccine coverage, perhaps even more so in western societies where trust in government and public health reports may be lower than in other countries. This article explores what has been learned about cross-cultural responses to pandemic influenza, and seeks to apply those lessons to seasonal influenza immunization programs. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of self and parental vaccination decisions in England during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: Analysis of the Flu Watch pandemic cohort data.

PubMed

Weston, Dale; Blackburn, Ruth; Potts, Henry W W; Hayward, Andrew C

2017-07-05

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, UK uptake of the pandemic influenza vaccine was very low. Furthermore, attitudes governing UK vaccination uptake during a pandemic are poorly characterised. To the best of our knowledge, there is no published research explicitly considering predictors of both adult self-vaccination and decisions regarding whether or not to vaccinate one's children among the UK population during the H1N1 pandemic. We therefore aimed to identify predictors of both self-vaccination decisions and parental vaccination decisions using data collected during the H1N1 pandemic as part of the Flu Watch cohort study. Data were analysed separately for 798 adults and 85 children: exploratory factor analysis facilitated reduction of 16 items on attitudes to pandemic vaccine into a smaller number of factors. Single variable analyses with vaccine uptake as the outcome were used to identify variables that were predictive of vaccination in children and adults. Potential predictors were: attitudinal factors created by data reduction, age group, sex, region, deprivation, ethnicity, chronic condition, vocation, healthcare-related occupation and previous influenza vaccination. Consistent with previous literature concerning adult self-vaccination decisions, we found that vaccine efficacy/safety and perceived risk of pandemic influenza were significant predictors of both self-vaccination decisions and parental vaccination decisions. This study provides the first systematic attempt to understand both the predictors of self and parental vaccination uptake among the UK general population during the H1N1 pandemic. Our findings indicate that concerns about vaccine safety, and vaccine effectiveness may be a barrier to increased uptake for both self and parental vaccination. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Adaptive Mutations That Occurred during Circulation in Humans of H1N1 Influenza Virus in the 2009 Pandemic Enhance Virulence in Mice.

PubMed

Otte, A; Sauter, M; Daxer, M A; McHardy, A C; Klingel, K; Gabriel, G

2015-07-01

During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, infection attack rates were particularly high among young individuals who suffered from pneumonia with occasional death. Moreover, previously reported determinants of mammalian adaptation and pathogenicity were not present in 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses. Thus, it was proposed that unknown viral factors might have contributed to disease severity in humans. In this study, we performed a comparative analysis of two clinical 2009 pandemic H1N1 strains that belong to the very early and later phases of the pandemic. We identified mutations in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) and the nucleoprotein (NP) that occurred during pandemic progression and mediate increased virulence in mice. Lethal disease outcome correlated with elevated viral replication in the alveolar epithelium, increased proinflammatory cytokine and chemokine responses, pneumonia, and lymphopenia in mice. These findings show that viral mutations that have occurred during pandemic circulation among humans are associated with severe disease in mice. In this study, novel determinants of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza pathogenicity were identified in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) and the nucleoprotein (NP) genes. In contrast to highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, increased virulence in mice did not correlate with enhanced polymerase activity but with reduced activity. Lethal 2009 pandemic H1N1 infection in mice correlated with lymphopenia and severe pneumonia. These studies suggest that molecular mechanisms that mediate 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza pathogenicity are distinct from those that mediate avian influenza virus pathogenicity in mice. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

Uncovering text mining: A survey of current work on web-based epidemic intelligence

PubMed Central

Collier, Nigel

2012-01-01

Real world pandemics such as SARS 2002 as well as popular fiction like the movie Contagion graphically depict the health threat of a global pandemic and the key role of epidemic intelligence (EI). While EI relies heavily on established indicator sources a new class of methods based on event alerting from unstructured digital Internet media is rapidly becoming acknowledged within the public health community. At the heart of automated information gathering systems is a technology called text mining. My contribution here is to provide an overview of the role that text mining technology plays in detecting epidemics and to synthesise my existing research on the BioCaster project. PMID:22783909

Absolute Humidity and the Seasonality of Influenza (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaman, J. L.; Pitzer, V.; Viboud, C.; Grenfell, B.; Goldstein, E.; Lipsitch, M.

2010-12-01

Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent re-analysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here we show that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions. In addition, we show that variations of the basic and effective reproductive numbers for influenza, caused by seasonal changes in absolute humidity, are consistent with the general timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks observed for 2009 A/H1N1 in temperate regions. Indeed, absolute humidity conditions correctly identify the region of the United States vulnerable to a third, wintertime wave of pandemic influenza. These findings suggest that the timing of pandemic influenza outbreaks is controlled by a combination of absolute humidity conditions, levels of susceptibility and changes in population mixing and contact rates.

[Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics].

PubMed

Gendon, Iu Z; Vasil'ev, Iu M

2012-01-01

Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of human influenza viruses in domestic cats

PubMed Central

Ibrahim, Mahmoud; Ali, Ahmed; Daniels, Joshua B.

2016-01-01

The continuous exposure of cats to diverse influenza viruses raises the concern of a potential role of cats in the epidemiology of these viruses. Our previous seroprevalence study of domestic cat sera collected during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic wave (September 2009–September 2010) revealed a high prevalence of pandemic H1N1, as well as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 human flu virus infection (22.5%, 33.0%, and 43.5%, respectively). In this study, we extended the serosurvey of influenza viruses in cat sera collected post-pandemic (June 2011–August 2012). A total of 432 cat sera were tested using the hemagglutination inhibition assay. The results showed an increase in pandemic H1N1 prevalence (33.6%) and a significant reduction in both seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 prevalence (10.9% and 17.6%, respectively) compared to our previous survey conducted during the pandemic wave. The pandemic H1N1 prevalence in cats showed an irregular seasonality pattern in the post-pandemic phase. Pandemic H1N1 reactivity was more frequent among female cats than male cats. In contrast to our earlier finding, no significant association between clinical respiratory disease and influenza virus infection was observed. Our study highlights a high susceptibility among cats to human influenza virus infection that is correlated with influenza prevalence in the human population. PMID:27030198

Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Shanks, G Dennis; Hussell, Tracy; Brundage, John F

2012-11-01

During the 1918 pandemic period, influenza-related mortality increased worldwide; however, mortality rates varied widely across locations and demographic subgroups. Islands are isolated epidemiological situations that may elucidate why influenza pandemic mortality rates were so variable in apparently similar populations. Our objectives were to determine and compare the patterns of pandemic influenza mortality on islands. We reviewed historical records of mortality associated with the 1918-1920 influenza pandemic in various military and civilian groups on islands. Mortality differed more than 50-fold during pandemic-related epidemics on Pacific islands [range: 0.4% (Hawaii) to 22% (Samoa)], and on some islands, mortality sharply varied among demographic subgroups of island residents such as Saipan: Chamorros [12%] and Caroline Islanders [0.4%]. Among soldiers from island populations who had completed initial military training, influenza-related mortality rates were generally low, for example, Puerto Rico (0.7%) and French Polynesia (0.13%). The findings suggest that among island residents, those who had been exposed to multiple, antigenically diverse respiratory pathogens prior to infection with the 1918 pandemic strain (e.g., less isolated) experienced lower mortality. The continuous circulation of antigenically diverse influenza viruses and other respiratory infectious agents makes widespread high mortality during future influenza pandemics unlikely. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Keogh-Brown, Marcus R; Wren-Lewis, Simon; Edmunds, W John; Beutels, Philippe; Smith, Richard D

2010-11-01

Little is known about the possible impact of an influenza pandemic on a nation's economy. We applied the UK macroeconomic model 'COMPACT' to epidemiological data on previous UK influenza pandemics, and extrapolated a sensitivity analysis to cover more extreme disease scenarios. Analysis suggests that the economic impact of a repeat of the 1957 or 1968 pandemics, allowing for school closures, would be short-lived, constituting a loss of 3.35 and 0.58% of GDP in the first pandemic quarter and year, respectively. A more severe scenario (with more than 1% of the population dying) could yield impacts of 21 and 4.5%, respectively. The economic shockwave would be gravest when absenteeism (through school closures) increases beyond a few weeks, creating policy repercussions for influenza pandemic planning as the most severe economic impact is due to policies to contain the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.Accounting for changes in consumption patterns made in an attempt to avoid infection worsens the potential impact. Our mild disease scenario then shows first quarter/first year reductions in GDP of 9.5/2.5%, compared with our severe scenario reductions of 29.5/6%. These results clearly indicate the significance of behavioural change over disease parameters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Social justice in pandemic preparedness.

PubMed

DeBruin, Debra; Liaschenko, Joan; Marshall, Mary Faith

2012-04-01

Pandemic influenza planning in the United States violates the demands of social justice in 2 fundamental respects: it embraces the neutrality of procedural justice at the expense of more substantive concern with health disparities, thus perpetuating a predictable and preventable social injustice, and it fails to move beyond lament to practical planning for alleviating barriers to accessing care. A pragmatic social justice approach, addressing both health disparities and access barriers, should inform pandemic preparedness. Achieving social justice goals in pandemic response is challenging, but strategies are available to overcome the obstacles. The public engagement process of one state's pandemic ethics project influenced the development of these strategies.

Social Justice in Pandemic Preparedness

PubMed Central

Liaschenko, Joan; Marshall, Mary Faith

2012-01-01

Pandemic influenza planning in the United States violates the demands of social justice in 2 fundamental respects: it embraces the neutrality of procedural justice at the expense of more substantive concern with health disparities, thus perpetuating a predictable and preventable social injustice, and it fails to move beyond lament to practical planning for alleviating barriers to accessing care. A pragmatic social justice approach, addressing both health disparities and access barriers, should inform pandemic preparedness. Achieving social justice goals in pandemic response is challenging, but strategies are available to overcome the obstacles. The public engagement process of one state's pandemic ethics project influenced the development of these strategies. PMID:22397337

[Influenza pandemic: hypotheses and facts].

PubMed

Gendon, Iu Z

2008-01-01

Data on influenza pandemics as well as on the characteristics of influenza viruses, which caused pandemicsin 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977 are presented. Mechanisms of pandemic influenza virus strains evolving, including mutations resulting in increase of virulence, as well as possibility of human and avian influenza viruses reassortment process as the source of pandemic strains are discussed. Mechanisms of transformation of mildly virulent influenza virus strains to highly virulent, which can cause epizootics, are reviewed. Genes and proteins determining species specificity of avian influenza viruses as well as possible emergence of influenza pandemic caused by H5N1 strain are discussed. Suggestion of low probability of such event is expressed.

Virulence determinants of pandemic influenza viruses

PubMed Central

Tscherne, Donna M.; García-Sastre, Adolfo

2011-01-01

Influenza A viruses cause recurrent, seasonal epidemics and occasional global pandemics with devastating levels of morbidity and mortality. The ability of influenza A viruses to adapt to various hosts and undergo reassortment events ensures constant generation of new strains with unpredictable degrees of pathogenicity, transmissibility, and pandemic potential. Currently, the combination of factors that drives the emergence of pandemic influenza is unclear, making it impossible to foresee the details of a future outbreak. Identification and characterization of influenza A virus virulence determinants may provide insight into genotypic signatures of pathogenicity as well as a more thorough understanding of the factors that give rise to pandemics. PMID:21206092

Possible Increased Pathogenicity of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Virus upon Reassortment

PubMed Central

Schrauwen, Eefje J.A.; Herfst, Sander; Chutinimitkul, Salin; Bestebroer, Theo M.; Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.; Osterhaus, Albert D.M.E.; Kuiken, Thijs

2011-01-01

Since emergence of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in April 2009, three influenza A viruses—seasonal (H3N2), seasonal (H1N1), and pandemic (H1N1) 2009—have circulated in humans. Genetic reassortment between these viruses could result in enhanced pathogenicity. We compared 4 reassortant viruses with favorable in vitro replication properties with the wild-type pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus with respect to replication kinetics in vitro and pathogenicity and transmission in ferrets. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 viruses containing basic polymerase 2 alone or in combination with acidic polymerase of seasonal (H1N1) virus were attenuated in ferrets. In contrast, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 with neuraminidase of seasonal (H3N2) virus resulted in increased virus replication and more severe pulmonary lesions. The data show that pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus has the potential to reassort with seasonal influenza viruses, which may result in increased pathogenicity while it maintains the capacity of transmission through aerosols or respiratory droplets. PMID:21291589

Avian influenza virus (H5N1): a threat to human health.

PubMed

Peiris, J S Malik; de Jong, Menno D; Guan, Yi

2007-04-01

Pandemic influenza virus has its origins in avian influenza viruses. The highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is already panzootic in poultry, with attendant economic consequences. It continues to cross species barriers to infect humans and other mammals, often with fatal outcomes. Therefore, H5N1 virus has rightly received attention as a potential pandemic threat. However, it is noted that the pandemics of 1957 and 1968 did not arise from highly pathogenic influenza viruses, and the next pandemic may well arise from a low-pathogenicity virus. The rationale for particular concern about an H5N1 pandemic is not its inevitability but its potential severity. An H5N1 pandemic is an event of low probability but one of high human health impact and poses a predicament for public health. Here, we review the ecology and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses, assess the pandemic risk, and address aspects of human H5N1 disease in relation to its epidemiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, diagnosis, and management.

Investing in Immunity: Prepandemic Immunization to Combat Future Influenza Pandemics.

PubMed

Goodman, Jesse L

2016-02-15

We are unlikely, with current technologies, to have sufficient pandemic influenza vaccine ready in time to impact the first wave of the next pandemic. Emerging data show that prior immunization with an immunologically distinct hemagglutinin of the same subtype offers the potential to "prime" recipients for rapid protection with a booster dose, years later, of a vaccine then manufactured to match the pandemic strain. This article proposes making prepandemic priming vaccine(s) available for voluntary use, particularly to those at high risk of early occupational exposure, such as first responders and healthcare workers, and to others maintaining critical infrastructure. In addition to providing faster protection and potentially reducing social disruption, being able, early in a pandemic, to immunize those who had received prepandemic vaccine with one dose of the pandemic vaccine, rather than the 2 doses typically required, would reduce the total doses of pandemic vaccine then needed, extending vaccine supplies. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanded Antiviral Prophylaxis and Adjuvanted Vaccination Strategies for the Next Influenza Pandemic

PubMed Central

Khazeni, Nayer; Hutton, David W; Garber, Alan M; Owens, Douglas K

2011-01-01

Background The pandemic potential of the influenza A (H5N1) virus is among the greatest public health concerns of the 21st century. Objective To determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative pandemic mitigation and response strategies. Design Compartmental epidemic model in conjunction with a Markov model of disease progression. Data Sources Literature and expert opinion. Target Population Residents of a U.S. metropolitan city. Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Societal. Interventions One mitigation strategy used non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and antiviral pharmacotherapy in quantities similar to those available currently in the U.S. stockpile. The second and third strategies used expanded supplies of either antivirals (expanded antiviral prophylaxis strategy) or adjuvanted vaccine (expanded vaccination strategy) in addition to non-pharmaceutical interventions. Outcome Measures Infections and deaths averted, costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness. Results of Base Case Analysis The stockpiled strategy averted 44% of infections and deaths, gaining 258,342 QALYs at $8,907 per QALY gained relative to no intervention. Expanded antiviral prophylaxis delayed the pandemic, averting 48% of infections and deaths, and gaining 282,329 QALYs, with a less favorable cost-effectiveness ratio than adjuvanted vaccination. Adjuvanted vaccination was the most effective strategy and was cost-effective, averting 68% of infections and deaths, and gaining 404,030 QALYs at $10,844 per QALY gained relative to stockpiled strategy. Results of Sensitivity Analysis Over a wide range of assumptions, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the expanded adjuvanted vaccination strategy was less than $50,000 per QALY gained. Limitations Large groups and frequent contacts may spread the virus more rapidly. The model is not designed to target interventions to specific groups. Conclusions Expanded adjuvanted vaccination is an effective and cost-effective mitigation strategy for an influenza A (H5N1) pandemic. Expanded antiviral prophylaxis can be beneficial in delaying the pandemic while additional strategies are implemented. PMID:20008760

Controlling Pandemic Flu: The Value of International Air Travel Restrictions

PubMed Central

Epstein, Joshua M.; Goedecke, D. Michael; Yu, Feng; Morris, Robert J.; Wagener, Diane K.; Bobashev, Georgiy V.

2007-01-01

Background Planning for a possible influenza pandemic is an extremely high priority, as social and economic effects of an unmitigated pandemic would be devastating. Mathematical models can be used to explore different scenarios and provide insight into potential costs, benefits, and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under consideration. Methods and Findings A stochastic, equation-based epidemic model is used to study global transmission of pandemic flu, including the effects of travel restrictions and vaccination. Economic costs of intervention are also considered. The distribution of First Passage Times (FPT) to the United States and the numbers of infected persons in metropolitan areas worldwide are studied assuming various times and locations of the initial outbreak. International air travel restrictions alone provide a small delay in FPT to the U.S. When other containment measures are applied at the source in conjunction with travel restrictions, delays could be much longer. If in addition, control measures are instituted worldwide, there is a significant reduction in cases worldwide and specifically in the U.S. However, if travel restrictions are not combined with other measures, local epidemic severity may increase, because restriction-induced delays can push local outbreaks into high epidemic season. The per annum cost to the U.S. economy of international and major domestic air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.8% of Gross National Product. Conclusions International air travel restrictions may provide a small but important delay in the spread of a pandemic, especially if other disease control measures are implemented during the afforded time. However, if other measures are not instituted, delays may worsen regional epidemics by pushing the outbreak into high epidemic season. This important interaction between policy and seasonality is only evident with a global-scale model. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while their costs are minimal, dismissal of travel restrictions as an aid in dealing with a global pandemic seems premature. PMID:17476323

Genetic Analysis of Vibrio parahaemolyticus O3:K6 Strains That Have Been Isolated in Mexico Since 1998

PubMed Central

Licea-Navarro, Alexei Fedorovish; Revilla-Castellanos, Valeria Jeanette; Wong-Chang, Irma; González-Sánchez, Ricardo

2017-01-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is an important human pathogen that has been isolated worldwide from clinical cases, most of which have been associated with seafood consumption. Environmental and clinical toxigenic strains of V. parahaemolyticus that were isolated in Mexico from 1998 to 2012, including those from the only outbreak that has been reported in this country, were characterized genetically to assess the presence of the O3:K6 pandemic clone, and their genetic relationship to strains that are related to the pandemic clonal complex (CC3). Pathogenic tdh+ and tdh+/trh+ strains were analyzed by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Also, the entire genome of a Mexican O3:K6 strain was sequenced. Most of the strains were tdh/ORF8-positive and corresponded to the O3:K6 serotype. By PFGE and MLST, there was very close genetic relationship between ORF8/O3:K6 strains, and very high genetic diversities from non-pandemic strains. The genetic relationship is very close among O3:K6 strains that were isolated in Mexico and sequences that were available for strains in the CC3, based on the PubMLST database. The whole-genome sequence of CICESE-170 strain had high similarity with that of the reference RIMD 2210633 strain, and harbored 7 pathogenicity islands, including the 4 that denote O3:K6 pandemic strains. These results indicate that pandemic strains that have been isolated in Mexico show very close genetic relationship among them and with those isolated worldwide. PMID:28099500

Vaccines as Epidemic Insurance

PubMed Central

Pauly, Mark V.

2017-01-01

This paper explores the relationship between the research for and development of vaccines against global pandemics and insurance. It shows that development in advance of pandemics of a portfolio of effective and government-approved vaccines does have some insurance properties: it requires incurring costs that are certain (the costs of discovering, developing, and testing vaccines) in return for protection against large losses (if a pandemic treatable with one of the vaccines occurs) but also with the possibility of no benefit (from a vaccine against a disease that never reaches the pandemic stage). It then argues that insurance against the latter event might usefully be offered to organizations developing vaccines, and explores the benefits of insurance payments to or on behalf of countries who suffer from unpredictable pandemics. These ideas are then related to recent government, industry, and philanthropic efforts to develop better policies to make vaccines against pandemics available on a timely basis. PMID:29076995

Differential mortality rates by ethnicity in 3 influenza pandemics over a century, New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, Nick; Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A; Shanks, G Dennis; Baker, Michael G

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

Differential Mortality Rates by Ethnicity in 3 Influenza Pandemics Over a Century, New Zealand

PubMed Central

Barnard, Lucy Telfar; Summers, Jennifer A.; Shanks, G. Dennis; Baker, Michael G.

2012-01-01

Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3–5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses. PMID:22257434

Vaccines as Epidemic Insurance.

PubMed

Pauly, Mark V

2017-10-27

This paper explores the relationship between the research for and development of vaccines against global pandemics and insurance. It shows that development in advance of pandemics of a portfolio of effective and government-approved vaccines does have some insurance properties: it requires incurring costs that are certain (the costs of discovering, developing, and testing vaccines) in return for protection against large losses (if a pandemic treatable with one of the vaccines occurs) but also with the possibility of no benefit (from a vaccine against a disease that never reaches the pandemic stage). It then argues that insurance against the latter event might usefully be offered to organizations developing vaccines, and explores the benefits of insurance payments to or on behalf of countries who suffer from unpredictable pandemics. These ideas are then related to recent government, industry, and philanthropic efforts to develop better policies to make vaccines against pandemics available on a timely basis.

The age distribution of mortality due to influenza: pandemic and peri-pandemic

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza is said to 'shift mortality' to younger age groups; but also to spare a subpopulation of the elderly population. Does one of these effects dominate? Might this have important ramifications? Methods We estimated age-specific excess mortality rates for all-years for which data were available in the 20th century for Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the UK, and the USA for people older than 44 years of age. We modeled variation with age, and standardized estimates to allow direct comparison across age groups and countries. Attack rate data for four pandemics were assembled. Results For nearly all seasons, an exponential model characterized mortality data extremely well. For seasons of emergence and a variable number of seasons following, however, a subpopulation above a threshold age invariably enjoyed reduced mortality. 'Immune escape', a stepwise increase in mortality among the oldest elderly, was observed a number of seasons after both the A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) pandemics. The number of seasons from emergence to escape varied by country. For the latter pandemic, mortality rates in four countries increased for younger age groups but only in the season following that of emergence. Adaptation to both emergent viruses was apparent as a progressive decrease in mortality rates, which, with two exceptions, was seen only in younger age groups. Pandemic attack rate variation with age was estimated to be similar across four pandemics with very different mortality impact. Conclusions In all influenza pandemics of the 20th century, emergent viruses resembled those that had circulated previously within the lifespan of then-living people. Such individuals were relatively immune to the emergent strain, but this immunity waned with mutation of the emergent virus. An immune subpopulation complicates and may invalidate vaccine trials. Pandemic influenza does not 'shift' mortality to younger age groups; rather, the mortality level is reset by the virulence of the emerging virus and is moderated by immunity of past experience. In this study, we found that after immune escape, older age groups showed no further mortality reduction, despite their being the principal target of conventional influenza vaccines. Vaccines incorporating variants of pandemic viruses seem to provide little benefit to those previously immune. If attack rates truly are similar across pandemics, it must be the case that immunity to the pandemic virus does not prevent infection, but only mitigates the consequences. PMID:23234604

Empirical Evidence for the Effect of Airline Travel on Inter-Regional Influenza Spread in the United States

PubMed Central

Brownstein, John S; Wolfe, Cecily J; Mandl, Kenneth D

2006-01-01

Background The influence of air travel on influenza spread has been the subject of numerous investigations using simulation, but very little empirical evidence has been provided. Understanding the role of airline travel in large-scale influenza spread is especially important given the mounting threat of an influenza pandemic. Several recent simulation studies have concluded that air travel restrictions may not have a significant impact on the course of a pandemic. Here, we assess, with empirical data, the role of airline volume on the yearly inter-regional spread of influenza in the United States. Methods and Findings We measured rate of inter-regional spread and timing of influenza in the United States for nine seasons, from 1996 to 2005 using weekly influenza and pneumonia mortality from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Seasonality was characterized by band-pass filtering. We found that domestic airline travel volume in November (mostly surrounding the Thanksgiving holiday) predicts the rate of influenza spread (r 2 = 0.60; p = 0.014). We also found that international airline travel influences the timing of influenza mortality (r 2 = 0.59; p = 0.016). The flight ban in the US after the terrorist attack on September 11, 2001, and the subsequent depression of the air travel market, provided a natural experiment for the evaluation of flight restrictions; the decrease in air travel was associated with a delayed and prolonged influenza season. Conclusions We provide the first empirical evidence for the role of airline travel in long-range dissemination of influenza. Our results suggest an important influence of international air travel on the timing of influenza introduction, as well as an influence of domestic air travel on the rate of inter-regional influenza spread in the US. Pandemic preparedness strategies should account for a possible benefit of airline travel restrictions on influenza spread. PMID:16968115

Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States.

PubMed

Prager, Fynnwin; Wei, Dan; Rose, Adam

2017-01-01

Pandemic influenza represents a serious threat not only to the population of the United States, but also to its economy. In this study, we analyze the total economic consequences of potential influenza outbreaks in the United States for four cases based on the distinctions between disease severity and the presence/absence of vaccinations. The analysis is based on data and parameters on influenza obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and the general literature. A state-of-the-art economic impact modeling approach, computable general equilibrium, is applied to analyze a wide range of potential impacts stemming from the outbreaks. This study examines the economic impacts from changes in medical expenditures and workforce participation, and also takes into consideration different types of avoidance behavior and resilience actions not previously fully studied. Our results indicate that, in the absence of avoidance and resilience effects, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in a loss in U.S. GDP of $25.4 billion, but that vaccination could reduce the losses to $19.9 billion. When behavioral and resilience factors are taken into account, a pandemic influenza outbreak could result in GDP losses of $45.3 billion without vaccination and $34.4 billion with vaccination. These results indicate the importance of including a broader set of causal factors to achieve more accurate estimates of the total economic impacts of not just pandemic influenza but biothreats in general. The results also highlight a number of actionable items that government policymakers and public health officials can use to help reduce potential economic losses from the outbreaks. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu?

MedlinePlus

... Home Current Issue Past Issues How Does Seasonal Flu Differ From Pandemic Flu? Past Issues / Fall 2006 Table of Contents For ... of this page please turn Javascript on. Seasonal Flu Pandemic Flu Outbreaks follow predictable seasonal patterns; occurs ...

Adjuvant solution for pandemic influenza vaccine production.

PubMed

Clegg, Christopher H; Roque, Richard; Van Hoeven, Neal; Perrone, Lucy; Baldwin, Susan L; Rininger, Joseph A; Bowen, Richard A; Reed, Steven G

2012-10-23

Extensive preparation is underway to mitigate the next pandemic influenza outbreak. New vaccine technologies intended to supplant egg-based production methods are being developed, with recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) as the most advanced program for preventing seasonal and avian H5N1 Influenza. Increased efforts are being focused on adjuvants that can broaden vaccine immunogenicity against emerging viruses and maximize vaccine supply on a worldwide scale. Here, we test protection against avian flu by using H5N1-derived rHA and GLA-SE, a two-part adjuvant system containing glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant (GLA), a formulated synthetic Toll-like receptor 4 agonist, and a stable emulsion (SE) of oil in water, which is similar to the best-in-class adjuvants being developed for pandemic flu. Notably, a single submicrogram dose of rH5 adjuvanted with GLA-SE protects mice and ferrets against a high titer challenge with H5N1 virus. GLA-SE, relative to emulsion alone, accelerated induction of the primary immune response and broadened its durability against heterosubtypic H5N1 virus challenge. Mechanistically, GLA-SE augments protection via induction of a Th1-mediated antibody response. Innate signaling pathways that amplify priming of Th1 CD4 T cells will likely improve vaccine performance against future outbreaks of lethal pandemic flu.

Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W. John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-01-01

Background The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. Methods and Findings To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Conclusions Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks. PMID:16640458

Experience and lessons from surveillance and studies of the 2009 pandemic in Europe.

PubMed

Nicoll, A; Ammon, A; Amato Gauci, A; Amato, A; Ciancio, B; Zucs, P; Devaux, I; Plata, F; Mazick, A; Mølbak, K; Asikainen, T; Kramarz, P

2010-01-01

Surveillance and studies in a pandemic is a complex topic including four distinct components: (1) early detection and investigation; (2) comprehensive early assessment; (3) monitoring; and (4) rapid investigation of the effectiveness and impact of countermeasures, including monitoring the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures. In the 2009 pandemic, the prime early detection and investigation took place in the Americas, but Europe needed to undertake the other three components while remaining vigilant to new phenomenon such as the emergence of antiviral resistance and important viral mutation. Laboratory-based surveillance was essential and also integral to epidemiological and clinical surveillance. Early assessment was especially vital because of the many important strategic parameters of the pandemic that could not be anticipated (the 'known unknowns'). Such assessment did not need to be undertaken in every country, and was done by the earliest affected European countries, particularly those with stronger surveillance. This was more successful than requiring countries to forward primary data for central analysis. However, it sometimes proved difficult to get even those analyses from European counties, and information from Southern hemisphere countries and North America proved equally valuable. These analyses informed which public health and clinical measures were most likely to be successful, and were summarized in a European risk assessment that was updated repeatedly. The estimate of the severity of the pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), and more detailed description by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control in the risk assessment along with revised planning assumptions were essential, as most national European plans envisaged triggering more disruptive interventions in the event of a severe pandemic. Setting up new surveillance systems in the midst of the pandemic and getting information from them was generally less successful. All European countries needed to perform monitoring (Component 3) for the proper management of their own healthcare systems and other services. The information that central authorities might like to have for monitoring was legion, and some countries found it difficult to limit this to what was essential for decisions and key communications. Monitoring should have been tested for feasibility in influenza seasons, but also needed to consider what surveillance systems will change or cease to deliver during a pandemic. International monitoring (reporting upwards to WHO and European authorities) had to be kept simple as many countries found it difficult to provide routine information to international bodies as well as undertaking internal processes. Investigation of the effectiveness of countermeasures (and the safety of pharmaceutical countermeasures) (Component 4) is another process that only needs to be undertaken in some countries. Safety monitoring proved especially important because of concerns over the safety of vaccines and antivirals. It is unlikely that it will become clear whether and which public health measures have been successful during the pandemic itself. Piloting of methods of estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness (part of Component 4) in Europe was underway in 2008. It was concluded that for future pandemics, authorities should plan how they will undertake Components 2-4, resourcing them realistically and devising new ways of sharing analyses. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recrudescent wave of pandemic A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico, winter 2011-2012: Age shift and severity.

PubMed

Chowell, Gerardo; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone; Grajales Muñiz, Concepcion; Rascón Pacheco, Ramón Alberto; González León, Margot; Borja Aburto, Víctor Hugo

2012-02-24

A substantial recrudescent wave of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 that began in December 2011 is ongoing and has not yet peaked in Mexico, following a 2-year period of sporadic transmission. Mexico previously experienced three pandemic waves of A/H1N1 in 2009, associated with higher excess mortality rates than those reported in other countries, and prompting a large influenza vaccination campaign. Here we describe changes in the epidemiological patterns of the ongoing 4th pandemic wave in 2011-12, relative to the earlier waves in 2009. The analysis is intended to guide public health intervention strategies in near real time. We analyzed demographic and geographic data on all hospitalizations with acute respiratory infection (ARI) and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza, and inpatient deaths, from a large prospective surveillance system maintained by the Mexican Social Security medical system during 01-April 2009 to 10-Feb 2012. We characterized the age and regional patterns of A/H1N1-positive hospitalizations and inpatient-deaths relative to the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) based on the growth rate of the daily case incidence by date of symptoms onset. A total of 5,795 ARI hospitalizations and 186 inpatient-deaths (3.2%) were reported between 01-December 2011 and 10-February 2012 (685 A/H1N1-positive inpatients and 75 A/H1N1-positive deaths). The nationwide peak of daily ARI hospitalizations in early 2012 has already exceeded the peak of ARI hospitalizations observed during the major fall pandemic wave in 2009. The mean age was 34.3 y (SD=21.3) among A/H1N1 inpatients and 43.5 y (SD=21) among A/H1N1 deaths in 2011-12. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 hospitalizations and deaths was higher among seniors >=60 years of age (Chi-square test P<0.001) and lower among younger age groups (Chi-square test, P<0.03) for the 2011-2012 pandemic wave, compared to the earlier waves in 2009. The reproduction number of the winter 2011-12 wave in central Mexico was estimated at 1.2-1.3, similar to that reported for the fall 2009 wave, but lower than that of spring 2009. We have documented a substantial and ongoing increase in the number of ARI hospitalizations during the period December 2011-February 2012 and an older age distribution of laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza hospitalizations and deaths, relative to 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic patterns. The gradual change in the age distribution of A/H1N1 infections in the post-pandemic period is reminiscent of historical pandemics and indicates either a gradual drift in the A/H1N1 virus, and/or a build-up of immunity among younger populations.

Fitness of Pandemic H1N1 and Seasonal influenza A viruses during Co-infection

PubMed Central

Perez, Daniel Roberto; Sorrell, Erin; Angel, Matthew; Ye, Jianqiang; Hickman, Danielle; Pena, Lindomar; Ramirez-Nieto, Gloria; Kimble, Brian; Araya, Yonas

2009-01-01

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a new H1N1 influenza pandemic. This pandemic strain is as transmissible as seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 influenza A viruses. Major concerns facing this pandemic are whether the new virus will replace, co-circulate and/or reassort with seasonal H1N1 and/or H3N2 human strains. Using the ferret model, we investigated which of these three possibilities were most likely favored. Our studies showed that the current pandemic virus is more transmissible than, and has a biological advantage over, prototypical seasonal H1 or H3 strains. PMID:20029606

Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-15

USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT AVIAN INFLUENZA PANDEMIC MAY EXPAND THE MILITARY ROLE IN DISASTER RELIEF by Colonel Frank William Sherod II United... Influenza Pandemic May Expand the Military Role in Disaster Relief 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S...8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 ABSTRACT AUTHOR: Colonel Frank William Sherod II TITLE: Avian Influenza Pandemic May Expand The Military Role

Influenza Pandemic: Gaps in Pandemic Planning and Preparedness Need to Be Addressed. Testimony before the Committee on Homeland Security, House of Representatives. GAO-09-909T

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinhardt, Bernice

2009-01-01

As the current H1N1 outbreak underscores, an influenza pandemic remains a real threat to our nation. Over the past 3 years, the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) conducted a body of work, consisting of 12 reports and 4 testimonies, to help the nation better prepare for a possible pandemic. In February 2009, GAO synthesized the results of…

Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making.

PubMed

Thompson, Alison K; Faith, Karen; Gibson, Jennifer L; Upshur, Ross E G

2006-12-04

Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

Preparing public health nurses for pandemic influenza through distance learning.

PubMed

Macario, Everly; Benton, Lisa D; Yuen, Janet; Torres, Mara; Macias-Reynolds, Violet; Holsclaw, Patricia; Nakahara, Natalie; Jones, Marcy Connell

2007-01-01

As a global influenza pandemic appears imminent with the spread of avian influenza, the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) and the California Distance Learning Health Network (CDLHN) presented a live 90-min satellite broadcast and subsequent 2-hr small group problem-solving tabletop exercise to practice interventions needed to minimize the consequences of a pandemic event. Public health nurses (PHNs), managers, and other staff in laboratories, clinical care, veterinary medicine, environmental health, public information and safety, emergency management, and transportation down linked the program, broadcast by satellite from the CDHS Richmond Laboratory Campus, to view on-site locally. PHNs represented the professional category with the highest number of participants for those conducting the program outside of California. For those in California, PHNs represented the professional category with the second highest number of participants. Participants and distance-learning facilitators completed a training evaluation survey. Continuing education credits were provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to participants who completed the satellite broadcast evaluation. This distance-learning-by-satellite method of education paired with an activities-based tabletop exercise, and a focus on local rather than State-based responsibility, marks an innovative method of training PHNs and other staff in emergency preparedness response.

[The role of primary care professionals in preventive activitites during epidemics. Focus group assessment of the management of flu pandemic in 2009/2010].

PubMed

Hajnal, Ferenc; Busa, Csilla; Papp, Renáta; Balogh, Sándor

2017-04-01

The experiences gained during the H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009/2010 could serve for a better planning and management of later outbreaks. The EU-sponsored TELL ME project aimed to provide evidence and develop models for improved risk communication during infectious disease crisis. Among its objectives was to develop original communication strategies regarding appropriate messages related to preventative behavior and advice based on uncertainties also addressing vaccine-resistant groups. Focus groups involving family physicians (FPs) were called upon for assessing the main issues during the H1N1 pandemic, the possibilities for improving the preventative process and outcomes. The study demonstrated the key-role of family doctors during outbreaks; patients put their trust in their elected FP, he or she representing a personal example of health behavior. The evidence based information about effectiveness and safety of vaccines are needed in communication towards health professionals. Involvement of health care professionals in the communication provides validity, the communication routine of opinion leaders meant to be used for such purpose. The main media message should be: "For prevention go to see your family doctor". Orv. Hetil., 2017, 158(14), 523-532.

Evidence-based medicine and the governance of pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Kamradt-Scott, Adam

2012-01-01

The conventional response of governments to protect their populations against the threat of influenza has been to ensure adequate vaccine production and/or access to supplies of vaccines and antiviral medications. This focus has, in turn, shaped the global governance structures around pandemic influenza, with collective efforts centred on facilitating virus sharing, maintaining and increasing vaccine production, and ensuring access to pharmaceuticals - responses that remain unattainable for many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in the short to medium term. This paper argues that this emphasis on pharmacological responses reflects a particular view of biomedicine that pays inadequate attention to the weak capacity of many health systems. In more recent years, this dynamic has been further exacerbated by the influence of evidence-based medicine (EBM) that preferences certain types of biomedical knowledge and practice. This paper explores the role that EBM has played in shaping the global governance of pandemic influenza, and how it has served to reinforce and reify the authority of particular groups of actors, including policy-makers, elected officials and the medical community. The paper concludes that only by unpacking these structures and revealing the political authority in play can alternative policy responses more appropriate to LMICs be considered.

Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

PubMed

Wong, Eliza L Y; Wong, Samuel Y S; Kung, Kenny; Cheung, Annie W L; Gao, Tiffany T; Griffiths, Sian

2010-04-30

Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3%) or "not sure" (43.6%) to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0%) and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%). The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02). Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p < 0.001) and found work more emotionally stressful (p < 0.001). Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Will the community nurse continue to function during H1N1 influenza pandemic: a cross-sectional study of Hong Kong community nurses?

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Healthcare workers have been identified as one of the high risk groups for being infected with influenza during influenza pandemic. Potential levels of absenteeism among healthcare workers in hospital settings are high. However, there was no study to explore the attitudes of healthcare workers in community setting towards the preparedness to the novel H1N1 influenza pandemic. The aim of this study was to explore the willingness of community nurses in Hong Kong to work during H1N1 influenza pandemic. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted among all 401 community nurses employed by the Hospital Authority in Hong Kong when the WHO pandemic alert level was 6. Results The response rate of this study was 66.6%. 76.9% participants reported being "not willing" (33.3%) or "not sure" (43.6%) to take care of patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic. The self-reported reasons for being unwilling to report to duty during H1N1 influenza pandemic were psychological stress (55.0%) and fear of being infected H1N1 influenza (29.2%). The reported unwillingness to report to duty was marginally significantly associated with the request for further training of using infection control clinical guideline (OR: 0.057; CI: 0.25-1.02). Those who reported unwillingness or not being sure about taking care of the patients during H1N1 influenza pandemic were more depressed (p < 0.001) and found work more emotionally stressful (p < 0.001). Conclusions Interventions to provide infection control training and address community nurses' psychological needs might increase their willingness to provide care to patients in the community during H1N1 influenza pandemic. This would help to ensure an effective and appropriate health system response during the H1N1 influenza pandemic. PMID:20433691

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south–north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918–19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918–19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality. PMID:24996457

Mobilising "vulnerability" in the public health response to pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Stephenson, Niamh; Davis, Mark; Flowers, Paul; MacGregor, Casimir; Waller, Emily

2014-02-01

Analysis of public health's growing interest in "vulnerability" has largely focused on health policy, with little interrogation of how vulnerability is being actively appropriated, countered, ignored or reworked by the publics whose health such policy is designed to protect. Once the assemblage of public health is understood as comprised of different forms of expertise and actors, including publics, addressing this gap matters. We examine the use of vulnerability in the specific context of pandemic influenza preparedness. Pandemic preparedness raises some familiar dilemmas for public health governance: how to engage with publics without fuelling social divisions and disruption; and whether to invoke publics as passive recipients of public health advice or to recognise publics as collective agents responding to the threat of pandemic influenza. Thus, we ask how the mobilisation of vulnerability connects with these dilemmas. To examine vulnerability in pandemic preparedness, two forms of qualitative data are analysed: 1) interviews and focus groups with "vulnerable" and "healthy" people (conducted 2011-12) discussing seasonal and pandemic influenza and; 2) international, Australian national and state level pandemic plans (1999-2013). Vulnerability is variously used in plans as a way to identify groups at particular risk of infection because of pre-existing clinical conditions, and as a free-floating social category that could apply to a broad range of people potentially involved in the social disruption a pandemic might entail. Our interview and focus group data indicate that healthy people rework the free-floating extension of vulnerability, and that people designated vulnerable encounter an absence of any collective responsibility for the threat of pandemic influenza. Our analysis suggests that vulnerability's mobilisation in pandemic preparedness limits the connection between public health governance and its publics: here, the openness and unpredictability of people's collective agency is something to be tightly controlled by a government concerned with protecting people from themselves. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Degree of adherence to recommended antiviral treatment during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 148 intensive care units in Spain.

PubMed

Canadell, L; Martín-Loeches, I; Díaz, E; Trefler, S; Grau, S; Yebenes, J C; Almirall, J; Olona, M; Sureda, F; Blanquer, J; Rodriguez, A

2015-05-01

To determine the degree of antiviral treatment recommendations adherence and its impact to critical ill patients affected by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 mortality. Secondary analysis of prospective study. Intensive care (UCI). Patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2009 pandemic and 2010-11 post-Pandemic periods. Adherence to recommendations was classified as: Total (AT); partial in doses (PD); partial in time (PT), and non-adherence (NA). Viral pneumonia, obesity and mechanical ventilation were considered severity criteria for the administration of high antiviral dose. The analysis was performed using t-test or «chi» square. Survival analysis was performed and adjusted by Cox regression analysis. A total of 1,058 patients, 661 (62.5%) included in the pandemic and 397 (37.5%) in post-pandemic period respectively. Global adherence was achieved in 41.6% (43.9% and 38.0%; P=.07 respectively). Severity criteria were similar in both periods (68.5% vs. 62.8%; P=.06). The AT was 54.7% in pandemic and 36.4% in post-pandemic period respectively (P<.01). The NA (19.7% vs. 11.3%; P<.05) and PT (20.8% vs. 9.9%, P<.01) was more frequent in the post-pandemic period. The mortality rate was higher in the post-pandemic period (30% vs. 21.8%, P<.001). APACHE II (HR=1.09) and hematologic disease (HR=2.2) were associated with a higher mortality and adherence (HR=0.47) was a protective factor. A low degree of adherence to the antiviral treatment was observed in both periods. Adherence to antiviral treatment recommendations was associated with lower mortality rates and should be recommended in critically ill patients with suspected influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Willingness of Hong Kong healthcare workers to accept pre-pandemic influenza vaccination at different WHO alert levels: two questionnaire surveys

PubMed Central

Chor, Josette S Y; Ngai, Karry LK; Goggins, William B; Wong, Martin C S; Wong, Samuel Y S; Lee, Nelson; Leung, Ting-fan; Rainer, Timothy H; Griffiths, Sian

2009-01-01

Objective To assess the acceptability of pre-pandemic influenza vaccination among healthcare workers in public hospitals in Hong Kong and the effect of escalation in the World Health Organization’s alert level for an influenza pandemic. Design Repeated cross sectional studies using self administered, anonymous questionnaires Setting Surveys at 31 hospital departments of internal medicine, paediatrics, and emergency medicine under the Hong Kong Hospital Authority from January to March 2009 and in May 2009 Participants 2255 healthcare workers completed the questionnaires in the two studies. They were doctors, nurses, or allied health professionals working in the public hospital system. Main outcome measures Stated willingness to accept pre-pandemic influenza vaccination (influenza A subtypes H5N1 or H1N1) and its associating factors. Results The overall willingness to accept pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine was only 28.4% in the first survey, conducted at WHO influenza pandemic alert phase 3. No significant changes in the level of willingness to accept pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine were observed despite the escalation to alert phase 5. The willingness to accept pre-pandemic H1N1 vaccine was 47.9% among healthcare workers when the WHO alert level was at phase 5. The most common reasons for an intention to accept were “wish to be protected” and “following health authority’s advice.” The major barriers identified were fear of side effects and doubts about efficacy. More than half of the respondents thought nurses should be the first priority group to receive the vaccines. The strongest positive associating factors were history of seasonal influenza vaccination and perceived risk of contracting the infection. Conclusions The willingness to accept pre-pandemic influenza vaccination was low, and no significant effect was observed with the change in WHO alert level. Further studies are required to elucidate the root cause of the low intention to accept pre-pandemic vaccination. PMID:19706937

Early estimation of pandemic influenza Antiviral and Vaccine Effectiveness (EAVE): use of a unique community and laboratory national data-linked cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Lone, Nazir; McMenamin, Jim; Gunson, Rory; Robertson, Chris; Ritchie, Lewis D; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

After the introduction of any new pandemic influenza, population-level surveillance and rapid assessment of the effectiveness of a new vaccination will be required to ensure that it is targeted to those at increased risk of serious illness or death from influenza. We aimed to build a pandemic influenza reporting platform that will determine, once a new pandemic is under way: the uptake and effectiveness of any new pandemic vaccine or any protective effect conferred by antiviral drugs once available; the clinical attack rate of pandemic influenza; and the existence of protection provided by previous exposure to, and vaccination from, A/H1N1 pandemic or seasonal influenza/identification of susceptible groups. An observational cohort and test-negative study design will be used (post pandemic). A national linkage of patient-level general practice data from 41 Practice Team Information general practices, hospitalisation and death certification, virological swab and serology-linked data. We will study a nationally representative sample of the Scottish population comprising 300,000 patients. Confirmation of influenza using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and, in a subset of the population, serology. Future available pandemic influenza vaccination and antivirals will be evaluated. To build a reporting platform tailored towards the evaluation of pandemic influenza vaccination. This system will rapidly measure vaccine effectiveness (VE), adjusting for confounders, estimated by determining laboratory-confirmed influenza; influenza-related morbidity and mortality, including general practice influenza-like illnesses (ILIs); and hospitalisation and death from influenza and pneumonia. Once a validated haemagglutination inhibition assay has been developed (and prior to the introduction of any vaccination), cross-reactivity with previous exposure to A/H1N1 or A/H1N1 vaccination, other pandemic influenza or other seasonal influenza vaccination or exposure will be measured. A new sentinel system, capable of rapidly determining the estimated incidence of pandemic influenza, and pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral uptake and effectiveness in preventing influenza and influenza-related clinical outcomes, has been created. We have all of the required regulatory approvals to allow rapid activation of the sentinel systems in the event of a pandemic. Of the 41 practices expressing an interest in participating, 40 have completed all of the necessary paperwork to take part in the reporting platform. The data extraction tool has been installed in these practices. Data extraction and deterministic linkage systems have been tested. Four biochemistry laboratories have been recruited, and systems for serology collection and linkage of samples to general practice data have been put in place. The reporting platform has been set up and is ready to be activated in the event of any pandemic of influenza. Building on this infrastructure, there is now the opportunity to extend the network of general practices to allow important subgroup analyses of VE (e.g. for patients with comorbidities, at risk of serious ILI) and to link to other data sources, in particular to test for maternal outcomes in pregnant patients. This study is registered as ISRCTN55398410. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Lessons from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Using Historical Examples to Inform the Department of Defense’s Response to the Next Pandemic

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-01

international containment as near as possible to the origin of an outbreak. Conclusion: The influenza pandemic of 1918 was the most rapidly lethal...fighting strength. Troop ships from the US delivered 1,700 new influenza cases to Brest , France in September 1918.26 These sick soldiers, far from...the population of the US during the pandemic because distrust and terror follow fear. 47 Fear led people to question the origin of the

Initial psychological responses to Influenza A, H1N1 ("Swine flu").

PubMed

Goodwin, Robin; Haque, Shamsul; Neto, Felix; Myers, Lynn B

2009-10-06

The outbreak of the pandemic flu, Influenza A H1N1 (Swine Flu) in early 2009, provided a major challenge to health services around the world. Previous pandemics have led to stockpiling of goods, the victimisation of particular population groups, and the cancellation of travel and the boycotting of particular foods (e.g. pork). We examined initial behavioural and attitudinal responses towards Influenza A, H1N1 ("Swine flu") in the six days following the WHO pandemic alert level 5, and regional differences in these responses. 328 respondents completed a cross-sectional Internet or paper-based questionnaire study in Malaysia (N = 180) or Europe (N = 148). Measures assessed changes in transport usage, purchase of preparatory goods for a pandemic, perceived risk groups, indicators of anxiety, assessed estimated mortality rates for seasonal flu, effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccination, and changes in pork consumption 26% of the respondents were 'very concerned' about being a flu victim (42% Malaysians, 5% Europeans, p < .001). 36% reported reduced public transport use (48% Malaysia, 22% Europe, p < .001), 39% flight cancellations (56% Malaysia, 17% Europe, p < .001). 8% had purchased preparatory materials (e.g. face masks: 8% Malaysia, 7% Europe), 41% Malaysia (15% Europe) intended to do so (p < .001). 63% of Europeans, 19% of Malaysians had discussed the pandemic with friends (p < .001). Groups seen as at 'high risk' of infection included the immune compromised (mentioned by 87% respondents), pig farmers (70%), elderly (57%), prostitutes/highly sexually active (53%), and the homeless (53%). In data collected only in Europe, 64% greatly underestimated the mortality rates of seasonal flu, 26% believed seasonal flu vaccination gave protection against swine flu. 7% had reduced/stopped eating pork. 3% had purchased anti-viral drugs for use at home, while 32% intended to do so if the pandemic worsened. Initial responses to Influenza A show large regional differences in anxiety, with Malaysians more anxious and more likely to reduce travel and to buy masks and food. Discussions with family and friends may reinforce existing anxiety levels. Particular groups (homosexuals, prostitutes, the homeless) are perceived as at greater risk, potentially leading to increased prejudice during a pandemic. Europeans underestimated mortality of seasonal flu, and require more information about the protection given by seasonal flu inoculation.

Influenza infection in the intensive care unit: Four years after the 2009 pandemic.

PubMed

Pérez-Carrasco, Marcos; Lagunes, Leonel; Antón, Andrés; Gattarello, Simone; Laborda, César; Pumarola, Tomás; Rello, Jordi

2016-03-01

The role of influenza viruses in severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Intensive Care Units (ICU) remains unknown. The post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 period, in particular, has been poorly studied. To identify influenza SARI patients in ICU, to assess the usefulness of the symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI), and to compare the features of pandemic vs. post-pandemic influenza A(H1N1) pdm09 infection. A prospective observational study with SARI patients admitted to ICU during the first three post-pandemic seasons. Patient demographics, characteristics and outcomes were recorded. An influenza epidemic period (IEP) was defined as >100 cases/100,000 inhabitants per week. One hundred sixty-three patients were diagnosed with SARI. ILI was present in 65 (39.9%) patients. Influenza infection was documented in 41 patients, 27 (41.5%) ILI patients, and 14 (14.3%) non-ILI patients, 27 of them during an IEP. Influenza A viruses were mainly responsible. Only five patients had influenza B virus infection, which were non-ILI during an IEP. SARI overall mortality was 22.1%, and 15% in influenza infection patients. Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza infection patients shared similar clinical features. During influenza epidemic periods, influenza infection screening should be considered in all SARI patients. Influenza SARI was mainly caused by subtype A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in post-pandemic seasons, and no differences were observed in ILI and mortality rate compared with a pandemic season. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

Dynamic Regimes of El Niño Southern Oscillation and Influenza Pandemic Timing

PubMed Central

Oluwole, Olusegun Steven Ayodele

2017-01-01

El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) dynamics has been shown to drive seasonal influenza dynamics. Severe seasonal influenza epidemics and the 2009–2010 pandemic were coincident with chaotic regime of ENSO dynamics. ENSO dynamics from 1876 to 2016 were characterized to determine if influenza pandemics are coupled to chaotic regimes. Time-varying spectra of southern oscillation index (SOI) and sea surface temperature (SST) were compared. SOI and SST were decomposed to components using the algorithm of noise-assisted multivariate empirical mode decomposition. The components were Hilbert transformed to generate instantaneous amplitudes and phases. The trajectories and attractors of components were characterized in polar coordinates and state space. Influenza pandemics were mapped to dynamic regimes of SOI and SST joint recurrence of annual components. State space geometry of El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics were characterized and compared with other El Niños. Timescales of SOI and SST components ranged from sub-annual to multidecadal. The trajectories of SOI and SST components and the joint recurrence of annual components were dissipative toward chaotic attractors. Periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic regimes were present in the recurrence of trajectories, but chaos–chaos transitions dominated. Influenza pandemics occurred during chaotic regimes of significantly low transitivity dimension (p < 0.0001). El Niños lagged by influenza pandemics had distinct state space geometry (p < 0.0001). Chaotic dynamics explains the aperiodic timing, and varying duration and strength of El Niños. Coupling of all influenza pandemics of the past 140 years to chaotic regimes of low transitivity indicate that ENSO dynamics drives influenza pandemic dynamics. Forecasts models from ENSO dynamics should compliment surveillance for novel influenza viruses. PMID:29218303

Psychological impact of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on general hospital workers in Kobe.

PubMed

Matsuishi, Kunitaka; Kawazoe, Ayako; Imai, Hissei; Ito, Atsushi; Mouri, Kentaro; Kitamura, Noboru; Miyake, Keiko; Mino, Koichi; Isobe, Masanori; Takamiya, Shizuo; Hitokoto, Hidefumi; Mita, Tatsuo

2012-06-01

In order for hospitals to work efficiently in a pandemic, it is important to know how a pandemic affects the hospital staff. The aim of the present study was to investigate the psychological impact of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 on hospital workers and how it was affected by the characteristics of the hospital, gender, age, job and work environment. In late June 2009, soon after the pandemic had ended in Kobe city, Japan, a questionnaire was distributed consisting of questions on sociodemographic characteristics, 19 stress-related questions and the Impact of Event Scale (IES) to all 3635 employees at three core general hospitals in Kobe. Exploratory factor analysis was applied to the 19 stress-related questions, and this produced four factors for evaluation (anxiety about infection, exhaustion, workload, and feeling of being protected). Multiple regression models were used to evaluate the association of personal characteristics with each score of the four factors and the IES. Valid answers were received from 1625 employees. Workers at a hospital with intense liaison psychiatric services felt less psychological impact. Workers at a hospital that provided staff with information about the pandemic less frequently, felt unprotected. Workers in work environments that had a high risk of infection felt more anxious and more exhausted. The total IES score was higher in workers in high-risk work environments. It is important for hospitals to protect hospital workers during a pandemic and to rapidly share information about the pandemic. Liaison psychiatric services can help to reduce the impact of the pandemic on hospital workers. © 2012 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2012 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Assessing the State of Knowledge Regarding the Effectiveness of Interventions to Contain Pandemic Influenza Transmission: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis.

PubMed

Saunders-Hastings, Patrick; Reisman, Jane; Krewski, Daniel

2016-01-01

Influenza pandemics occur when a novel influenza strain, to which humans are immunologically naïve, emerges to cause infection and illness on a global scale. Differences in the viral properties of pandemic strains, relative to seasonal ones, can alter the effectiveness of interventions typically implemented to control seasonal influenza burden. As a result, annual control activities may not be sufficient to contain an influenza pandemic. This study seeks to inform pandemic policy and planning initiatives by reviewing the effectiveness of previous interventions to reduce pandemic influenza transmission and infection. Results will inform the planning and design of more focused in-depth systematic reviews for specific types of interventions, thus providing the most comprehensive and current understanding of the potential for alternative interventions to mitigate the burden of pandemic influenza. A systematic review and narrative synthesis of existing systematic reviews and meta-analyses examining intervention effectiveness in containing pandemic influenza transmission was conducted using information collected from five databases (PubMed, Medline, Cochrane, Embase, and Cinahl/EBSCO). Two independent reviewers conducted study screening and quality assessment, extracting data related to intervention impact and effectiveness. Most included reviews were of moderate to high quality. Although the degree of statistical heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis, the present systematic review examines the wide variety of interventions that can impact influenza transmission in different ways. While it appears that pandemic influenza vaccination provides significant protection against infection, there was insufficient evidence to conclude that antiviral prophylaxis, seasonal influenza cross-protection, or a range of non-pharmaceutical strategies would provide appreciable protection when implemented in isolation. It is likely that an optimal intervention strategy will employ a combination of interventions in a layered approach, though more research is needed to substantiate this proposition. PROSPERO 42016039803.

Influenza pandemic periodicity, virus recycling, and the art of risk assessment.

PubMed

Dowdle, Walter R

2006-01-01

Influenza pandemic risk assessment is an uncertain art. The theory that influenza A virus pandemics occur every 10 to 11 years and seroarcheologic evidence of virus recycling set the stage in early 1976 for risk assessment and risk management of the Fort Dix, New Jersey, swine influenza outbreak. Additional data and passage of time proved the theory untenable. Much has been learned about influenza A virus and its natural history since 1976, but the exact conditions that lead to the emergence of a pandemic strain are still unknown. Current avian influenza events parallel those of swine influenza in 1976 but on a larger and more complex scale. Pre- and post-pandemic risk assessment and risk management are continuous but separate public health functions.

Isolation of pandemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus from UK water and shellfish produce.

PubMed

Powell, Andy; Baker-Austin, Craig; Wagley, Sariqa; Bayley, Amanda; Hartnell, Rachel

2013-05-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a Gram-negative, halophilic bacterium found commonly in temperate and warm estuarine waters worldwide. V. parahaemolyticus is considered an emerging bacterial pathogen in Europe and has been responsible for several recent seafood-associated outbreaks. During ad hoc testing of raw shellfish produce in May 2012, pandemic group (O3:K6) V. parahaemolyticus was isolated from Pacific oysters (Crassostrea gigas), harvested in Southern England. Follow-on testing of water and shellfish, encompassing a small number geographically diverse sites, also retrieved pandemic group isolates. These strains are amongst the most northerly pandemic strains described to date and represent the first instance of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus isolated in the UK, highlighting the expanding geographical distribution of these foodborne pathogens in the environment.

The war against influenza: discovery and development of sialidase inhibitors.

PubMed

von Itzstein, Mark

2007-12-01

The threat of a major human influenza pandemic, in particular from highly aggressive strains such as avian H5N1, has emphasized the need for therapeutic strategies to combat these pathogens. At present, two inhibitors of sialidase (also known as neuraminidase), a viral enzyme that has a key role in the life cycle of influenza viruses, would be the mainstay of pharmacological strategies in the event of such a pandemic. This article provides a historical perspective on the discovery and development of these drugs--zanamivir and oseltamivir--and highlights the value of structure-based drug design in this process.

The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model.

PubMed

Shi, Pengyi; Keskinocak, Pinar; Swann, Julie L; Lee, Bruce Y

2010-12-21

During the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, concerns arose about the potential negative effects of mass public gatherings and travel on the course of the pandemic. Better understanding the potential effects of temporal changes in social mixing patterns could help public officials determine if and when to cancel large public gatherings or enforce regional travel restrictions, advisories, or surveillance during an epidemic. We develop a computer simulation model using detailed data from the state of Georgia to explore how various changes in social mixing and contact patterns, representing mass gatherings and holiday traveling, may affect the course of an influenza pandemic. Various scenarios with different combinations of the length of the mass gatherings or traveling period (range: 0.5 to 5 days), the proportion of the population attending the mass gathering events or on travel (range: 1% to 50%), and the initial reproduction numbers R0 (1.3, 1.5, 1.8) are explored. Mass gatherings that occur within 10 days before the epidemic peak can result in as high as a 10% relative increase in the peak prevalence and the total attack rate, and may have even worse impacts on local communities and travelers' families. Holiday traveling can lead to a second epidemic peak under certain scenarios. Conversely, mass traveling or gatherings may have little effect when occurring much earlier or later than the epidemic peak, e.g., more than 40 days earlier or 20 days later than the peak when the initial R0 = 1.5. Our results suggest that monitoring, postponing, or cancelling large public gatherings may be warranted close to the epidemic peak but not earlier or later during the epidemic. Influenza activity should also be closely monitored for a potential second peak if holiday traveling occurs when prevalence is high.

75 FR 75363 - Absence and Leave; Sick Leave

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

... diseases, including pandemic influenza when appropriate. We are also permitting employees to substitute up..., including pandemic influenza when appropriate, by permitting the use of sick leave and advanced sick leave... and procedures developed in planning for a pandemic influenza and provided references to a substantial...

Pandemic Influenza and Community Preparedness

PubMed Central

Ryan, Philip; Roberton, Don; Street, Jackie; Watson, Maureen

2009-01-01

Objectives. We aimed to examine community knowledge about and attitudes toward the threat of pandemic influenza and assess the community acceptability of strategies to reduce its effect. Methods. We conducted computer-aided telephone interviews in 2007 with a cross-sectional sample of rural and metropolitan residents of South Australia. Results. Of 1975 households interviewed, half (50.2%) had never heard of pandemic influenza or were unaware of its meaning. Only 10% of respondents were extremely concerned about the threat of pandemic influenza. Respondents identified children as the highest priority for vaccination, if supplies were limited; they ranked politicians and teachers as the lowest priority. Although only 61.7% of respondents agreed with a policy of home isolation, 98.2% agreed if it was part of a national strategy. Respondents considered television to be the best means of educating the community. Conclusions. Community knowledge about pandemic influenza is poor despite widespread concern. Public education about pandemic influenza is essential if strategies to reduce the impact of the disease are to be effective. PMID:19797751

Planning and response to the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic: ethics, equity and justice.

PubMed

Devnani, Mahesh; Gupta, Anil Kumar; Devnani, Bharti

2011-01-01

This paper aims to highlight three ethical considerations related to influenza pandemic planning and response: ethical allocation of scarce resources; obligations and duties of healthcare workers to treat patients, and the balance between conflicting individual and community interests. Among these, perhaps the most challenging question facing bioethics is how to allocate scarce, life-saving resources given the devastating social and economic ramifications of a pandemic. In such situations, the identification of clear overall goals for pandemic planning is essential in making difficult choices. The dilemma between the duty to save patients and the right to protect the healthcare personnel's own life and health is a key issue. During the course of a pandemic, civil liberties may also be threatened, requiring limits on individual freedom to protect individuals as well as entire communities. Yet, individual liberty should be restricted with great care, and only when alternative approaches are not effective. Pandemic influenza planning and response should be a cooperative and shared responsibility that balances community and individual interests.

Pandemic influenza preparedness and response in Israel: a unique model of civilian-defense collaboration.

PubMed

Kohn, Sivan; Barnett, Daniel J; Leventhal, Alex; Reznikovich, Shmuel; Oren, Meir; Laor, Danny; Grotto, Itamar; Balicer, Ran D

2010-07-01

In April 2009, the World Health Organization announced the emergence of a novel influenza A(H1N1-09) virus and in June 2009 declared the outbreak a pandemic. The value of military structures in responding to pandemic influenza has become widely acknowledged in recent years. In 2005, the Israeli Government appointed the Ministry of Defense to be in charge of national preparedness and response for a severe pandemic influenza scenario. The Israeli case offers a unique example of civilian-defense partnership where the interface between the governmental, military and civilian spheres has formed a distinctive structure. The Israeli pandemic preparedness protocols represent an example of a collaboration in which aspects of an inherently medical problem can be managed by the defense sector. Although distinctive concepts of the model are not applicable to all countries, it offers a unique forum for governments and international agencies to evaluate this interface within the context of pandemic influenza.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Braeton J.; Starks, Shirley J.; Loose, Verne W.

Pandemic influenza has become a serious global health concern; in response, governments around the world have allocated increasing funds to containment of public health threats from this disease. Pandemic influenza is also recognized to have serious economic implications, causing illness and absence that reduces worker productivity and economic output and, through mortality, robs nations of their most valuable assets - human resources. This paper reports two studies that investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic flu outbreak. Policy makers can use the growing number of economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combatmore » the pandemic influenza outbreaks. Experts recognize that pandemic influenza has serious global economic implications. The illness causes absenteeism, reduced worker productivity, and therefore reduced economic output. This, combined with the associated mortality rate, robs nations of valuable human resources. Policy makers can use economic impact estimates to decide how much to spend to combat the pandemic influenza outbreaks. In this paper economists examine two studies which investigate both the short- and long-term economic implications of a pandemic influenza outbreak. Resulting policy implications are also discussed. The research uses the Regional Economic Modeling, Inc. (REMI) Policy Insight + Model. This model provides a dynamic, regional, North America Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry-structured framework for forecasting. It is supported by a population dynamics model that is well-adapted to investigating macro-economic implications of pandemic influenza, including possible demand side effects. The studies reported in this paper exercise all of these capabilities.« less

Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making

PubMed Central

Thompson, Alison K; Faith, Karen; Gibson, Jennifer L; Upshur, Ross EG

2006-01-01

Background Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. Discussion In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. Summary The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust. PMID:17144926

Comparison of Patients Hospitalized With Pandemic 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection During the First Two Pandemic Waves in Wisconsin

PubMed Central

Truelove, Shaun A.; Chitnis, Amit S.; Heffernan, Richard T.; Karon, Amy E.; Haupt, Thomas E.

2011-01-01

Background. Wisconsin was severely affected by pandemic waves of 2009 influenza A H1N1 infection during the period 15 April through 30 August 2009 (wave 1) and 31 August 2009 through 2 January 2010 (wave 2). Methods. To evaluate differences in epidemiologic features and outcomes during these pandemic waves, we examined prospective surveillance data on Wisconsin residents who were hospitalized ≥24 h with or died of pandemic H1N1 infection. Results. Rates of hospitalizations and deaths from pandemic H1N1 infection in Wisconsin increased 4- and 5-fold, respectively, from wave 1 to wave 2; outside Milwaukee, hospitalization and death rates increased 10- and 8-fold, respectively. Hospitalization rates were highest among racial and ethnic minorities and children during wave 1 and increased most during wave 2 among non-Hispanic whites and adults. Times to hospital admission and antiviral treatment improved between waves, but the overall hospital course remained similar, with no change in hospitalization duration, intensive care unit admission, requirement for mechanical ventilation, or mortality. Conclusions. We report broader geographic spread and marked demographic differences during pandemic wave 2, compared with wave 1, although clinical outcomes were similar. Our findings emphasize the importance of using comprehensive surveillance data to detect changing characteristics and impacts during an influenza pandemic and of vigorously promoting influenza vaccination and other prevention efforts. PMID:21278213

Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. Methods A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Results Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Conclusions Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react. PMID:20353568

Behavioural intentions in response to an influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Kok, Gerjo; Jonkers, Ruud; Gelissen, Roger; Meertens, Ree; Schaalma, Herman; de Zwart, Onno

2010-03-30

Little is known regarding which behavioural responses can be expected if an influenza pandemic were to occur. A survey comprising questions based on risk perception theories, in particular PMT, was conducted with a Dutch sample. Although fear that an influenza pandemic may occur was high, participants do not feel well informed. General practitioners and local health authorities were considered trustworthy sources of information and the information considered most urgent pertained to which protective measures should be taken. Participants reported an intention to comply with recommendations regarding protective measures. However, response and self efficacy were low. Maladaptive behaviours can be expected. Increasing numbers of ill individuals and school closures are also expected to lead to a decreased work force. Participants indicated wanting antiviral drugs even if the supply were to be insufficient. Messages regarding health protective behaviours from local health authorities should anticipate the balance between overreacting and underreacting. Also, when protective recommendations from health professionals conflict with company policies, it is unclear how employees will react.

Public Health Crisis Preparedness and Response in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Hye-Young; Oh, Mi-Na; Park, Yong-Shik; Chu, Chaeshin; Son, Tae-Jong

2013-01-01

Since the 2006 Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response Plan according to the World Health Organization’s recommendation, the Republic of Korea has prepared and periodically evaluated the plan to respond to various public health crises including pandemic influenza. Korea has stockpiled 13,000,000 doses of antiviral drugs covering 26% of the Korean population and runs 519 isolated beds in 16 medical institutions. The division of public health crisis response in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in charge of responding to public health crises caused by emerging infectious diseases including severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza human infection, and pandemic influenza. Its job description includes preparing for emerging infectious diseases, securing medical resources during a crisis, activating the emergency response during the crisis, and fortification of capabilities of public health personnel. It could evolve into a comprehensive national agency to deal with public health crisis based on the experience of previous national emerging infectious diseases. PMID:24298444

School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background School closure is a non-pharmaceutical intervention that was considered in many national pandemic plans developed prior to the start of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, and received considerable attention during the event. Here, we retrospectively review and compare national and local experiences with school closures in several countries during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Our intention is not to make a systematic review of country experiences; rather, it is to present the diversity of school closure experiences and provide examples from national and local perspectives. Methods Data were gathered during and following a meeting, organized by the European Centres for Disease Control, on school closures held in October 2010 in Stockholm, Sweden. A standard data collection form was developed and sent to all participants. The twelve participating countries and administrative regions (Bulgaria, China, France, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States) provided data. Results Our review highlights the very diverse national and local experiences on school closures during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. The processes including who was in charge of making recommendations and who was in charge of making the decision to close, the school-based control strategies, the extent of school closures, the public health tradition of responses and expectations on school closure varied greatly between countries. Our review also discusses the many challenges associated with the implementation of this intervention and makes recommendations for further practical work in this area. Conclusions The single most important factor to explain differences observed between countries may have been the different public health practises and public expectations concerning school closures and influenza in the selected countries. PMID:24739814

A model for the induction of autism in the ecosystem of the human body: the anatomy of a modern pandemic?

PubMed

Bilbo, Staci D; Nevison, Cynthia D; Parker, William

2015-01-01

The field of autism research is currently divided based on a fundamental question regarding the nature of autism: Some are convinced that autism is a pandemic of modern culture, with environmental factors at the roots. Others are convinced that the disease is not pandemic in nature, but rather that it has been with humanity for millennia, with its biological and neurological underpinnings just now being understood. In this review, two lines of reasoning are examined which suggest that autism is indeed a pandemic of modern culture. First, given the widely appreciated derailment of immune function by modern culture, evidence that autism is strongly associated with aberrant immune function is examined. Second, evidence is reviewed indicating that autism is associated with 'triggers' that are, for the most part, a construct of modern culture. In light of this reasoning, current epidemiological evidence regarding the incidence of autism, including the role of changing awareness and diagnostic criteria, is examined. Finally, the potential role of the microbial flora (the microbiome) in the pathogenesis of autism is discussed, with the view that the microbial flora is a subset of the life associated with the human body, and that the entire human biome, including both the microbial flora and the fauna, has been radically destabilized by modern culture. It is suggested that the unequivocal way to resolve the debate regarding the pandemic nature of autism is to perform an experiment: monitor the prevalence of autism after normalizing immune function in a Western population using readily available approaches that address the well-known factors underlying the immune dysfunction in that population.

A model for the induction of autism in the ecosystem of the human body: the anatomy of a modern pandemic?

PubMed Central

Bilbo, Staci D.; Nevison, Cynthia D.; Parker, William

2015-01-01

Background The field of autism research is currently divided based on a fundamental question regarding the nature of autism: Some are convinced that autism is a pandemic of modern culture, with environmental factors at the roots. Others are convinced that the disease is not pandemic in nature, but rather that it has been with humanity for millennia, with its biological and neurological underpinnings just now being understood. Objective In this review, two lines of reasoning are examined which suggest that autism is indeed a pandemic of modern culture. First, given the widely appreciated derailment of immune function by modern culture, evidence that autism is strongly associated with aberrant immune function is examined. Second, evidence is reviewed indicating that autism is associated with ‘triggers’ that are, for the most part, a construct of modern culture. In light of this reasoning, current epidemiological evidence regarding the incidence of autism, including the role of changing awareness and diagnostic criteria, is examined. Finally, the potential role of the microbial flora (the microbiome) in the pathogenesis of autism is discussed, with the view that the microbial flora is a subset of the life associated with the human body, and that the entire human biome, including both the microbial flora and the fauna, has been radically destabilized by modern culture. Conclusions It is suggested that the unequivocal way to resolve the debate regarding the pandemic nature of autism is to perform an experiment: monitor the prevalence of autism after normalizing immune function in a Western population using readily available approaches that address the well-known factors underlying the immune dysfunction in that population. PMID:25634608

Much ado about flu: A mixed methods study of parental perceptions, trust and information seeking in a pandemic.

PubMed

King, Catherine L; Chow, Maria Y K; Wiley, Kerrie E; Leask, Julie

2018-07-01

Effective public health messaging is essential in both the planning phase and duration of a pandemic. This study aimed to gain an understanding of parental information seeking, trusted sources and needs in relation to pandemic influenza A 2009 (pH1N1) to inform future policy planning and resource development. We conducted a mixed methods study; parents from 16 childcare centres in Sydney, Australia, were surveyed between 16 November and 9 December 2009, and interviews were conducted with participants from six childcare centres between June 2009 and May 2011. From 972 surveys distributed, 431 were completed; a response rate of 44%. Most parents (90%) reported that doctors were "trusted a lot" as a source of influenza information, followed by nurses (59%), government (56%) and childcare centres (52%). Less trusted sources included media (7% selected "trusted a lot"), antivaccination groups (6%) and celebrities (1%). Parents identified a range of key search terms for influenza infection and vaccine. From 42 in-depth interviews, key themes were as follows: "Action trigger," "In an emergency, think Emergency," "Fright to hype" and "Dr Google and beyond." Parents relied heavily on media messages, but cynicism emerged when the pandemic was milder than expected. Parents viewed a range of information sources as trustworthy, including doctors, authoritative hospital or government websites, and childcare centres and schools. A user-centred orientation is vital for pandemic communications including tailored information provision, via trusted sources based on what parents want to know and how they can find it. © 2018 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sport for Development and Global Public Health Issues: A Case Study of National Sports Associations.

PubMed

Banda, Davies

2017-01-01

Sport is widely recognised for the contribution it can make to international development goals. More specifically, the value of sport as a tool for development gained its impetus through the HIV/AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. The institutionalized relationship between sport and development has mainly focussed on sport-for-development (SfD) non-governmental organisations (NGOs). This study proposed to examine the response of National Sports Associations (NSAs) towards the multisectoral approach for HIV/AIDS prevention in Zambia. The study draws on lessons learnt from how NSAs within a resource-scarce or low-income country responded to a health pandemic. While public health was previously a state and health sector preserve, the impact of HIV/AIDS pandemic influenced not only the way that a pandemic is managed but also other public health issues. A case study approach was adopted comprising of three National Sports Associations (NSAs) as units of analysis. The study utilised semi-structured interviews, documentary analysis and field observations to gain perspectives on how each NSA mainstreamed and implemented work-based health programmes. Using governance and policy network theories, the paper discusses each NSAs' role in the governance and implementation of a multisectoral approach to a health pandemic. The findings identified lack of engagement of sports agencies at strategic decision-making level, marginalisation of sport by other sectors, and variations in implementation patterns among sports agencies. Further findings indicate that lack of resources among government sport agencies or departments limited their involvement with other state or non-state actors in strategic level meetings or health policy networks. Resource-scarce conditions placed limitations on the political steer of state actors while non-state actors with foreign resources attracted collaboration from other public health policy networks.

Physician privacy concerns when disclosing patient data for public health purposes during a pandemic influenza outbreak.

PubMed

El Emam, Khaled; Mercer, Jay; Moreau, Katherine; Grava-Gubins, Inese; Buckeridge, David; Jonker, Elizabeth

2011-06-09

Privacy concerns by providers have been a barrier to disclosing patient information for public health purposes. This is the case even for mandated notifiable disease reporting. In the context of a pandemic it has been argued that the public good should supersede an individual's right to privacy. The precise nature of these provider privacy concerns, and whether they are diluted in the context of a pandemic are not known. Our objective was to understand the privacy barriers which could potentially influence family physicians' reporting of patient-level surveillance data to public health agencies during the Fall 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza outbreak. Thirty seven family doctors participated in a series of five focus groups between October 29-31 2009. They also completed a survey about the data they were willing to disclose to public health units. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the amount of patient detail the participants were willing to disclose, factors that would facilitate data disclosure, and the consensus on those factors. The analysis of the qualitative data was based on grounded theory. The family doctors were reluctant to disclose patient data to public health units. This was due to concerns about the extent to which public health agencies are dependable to protect health information (trusting beliefs), and the possibility of loss due to disclosing health information (risk beliefs). We identified six specific actions that public health units can take which would affect these beliefs, and potentially increase the willingness to disclose patient information for public health purposes. The uncertainty surrounding a pandemic of a new strain of influenza has not changed the privacy concerns of physicians about disclosing patient data. It is important to address these concerns to ensure reliable reporting during future outbreaks.

Sport for Development and Global Public Health Issues: A Case Study of National Sports Associations

PubMed Central

Banda, Davies

2017-01-01

Sport is widely recognised for the contribution it can make to international development goals. More specifically, the value of sport as a tool for development gained its impetus through the HIV/AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa. The institutionalized relationship between sport and development has mainly focussed on sport-for-development (SfD) non-governmental organisations (NGOs). This study proposed to examine the response of National Sports Associations (NSAs) towards the multisectoral approach for HIV/AIDS prevention in Zambia. The study draws on lessons learnt from how NSAs within a resource-scarce or low-income country responded to a health pandemic. While public health was previously a state and health sector preserve, the impact of HIV/AIDS pandemic influenced not only the way that a pandemic is managed but also other public health issues. A case study approach was adopted comprising of three National Sports Associations (NSAs) as units of analysis. The study utilised semi-structured interviews, documentary analysis and field observations to gain perspectives on how each NSA mainstreamed and implemented work-based health programmes. Using governance and policy network theories, the paper discusses each NSAs' role in the governance and implementation of a multisectoral approach to a health pandemic. The findings identified lack of engagement of sports agencies at strategic decision-making level, marginalisation of sport by other sectors, and variations in implementation patterns among sports agencies. Further findings indicate that lack of resources among government sport agencies or departments limited their involvement with other state or non-state actors in strategic level meetings or health policy networks. Resource-scarce conditions placed limitations on the political steer of state actors while non-state actors with foreign resources attracted collaboration from other public health policy networks. PMID:29546215

US school morbidity and mortality, mandatory vaccination, institution closure, and interventions implemented during the 2009 influenza A H1N1 pandemic.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Elliott, Michael B; Swick, Zachary; Reddick, David

2013-03-01

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic disproportionately affected school-aged children, but only school-based outbreak case studies have been conducted. The purposes of this study were to evaluate US academic institutions' experiences during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in terms of infection prevention interventions implemented and to examine factors associated with school closure during the pandemic. An online survey was sent to school nurses in May through July 2011. Hierarchical logistic regressions were used to determine predictive models for having a mandatory H1N1 vaccination policy for school nurses and school closure. In all, 1,997 nurses from 26 states participated. Very few nurses (3.3%, n=65) reported having a mandatory H1N1 influenza vaccination policy; nurses were more likely than all other school employees (p<.001) to be mandated to receive vaccine. Determinants of having a mandatory H1N1 vaccination policy were being employed by a hospital or public health agency, and the school being located in a western or northeastern state. Factors related to school closure included being in a western or northeastern state, having higher H1N1-related morbidity/mortality, being a school nurse employed by a public health agency or hospital, and being a private school. The most commonly implemented interventions included encouraging staff and students to exercise hand hygiene and increasing classroom cleaning; least commonly implemented interventions included discouraging face-to-face meetings, training staff on H1N1 influenza and/or respiratory hygiene, and discouraging handshaking. Schools should develop and continue to improve their pandemic plans, including collaborating with community response agencies.

Respiratory virus laboratory pandemic planning and surveillance in central Viet Nam, 2008–2010

PubMed Central

Chien, Bui Trong; Papadakis, Georgina; Druce, Julian; Birch, Chris; Chibo, Doris; An, Truong Phuoc; Trang, Le Thi Kim; Trieu, Nguyen Bao; Thuy, Doan Thi Thanh; Catton, Mike; Mai, Trinh Xuan

2012-01-01

Introduction Laboratory capacity is needed in central Viet Nam to provide early warning to public health authorities of respiratory outbreaks of importance to human health, for example the outbreak of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in 2009. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) procedures established as part of a capacity-building process were used to conduct prospective respiratory surveillance in a region where few previous studies have been undertaken. Methods Between October 2008 and September 2010, nose and throat swabs from adults and children (approximately 20 per week) presenting with an acute respiratory illness to the Ninh Hoa General Hospital were collected. Same-day PCR testing and result reporting for 13 respiratory viruses were carried out by locally trained scientists. Results Of 2144 surveillance samples tested, 1235 (57.6%) were positive for at least one virus. The most common were influenza A strains (17.9%), with pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 and seasonal H3N2 strain accounting for 52% and 43% of these, respectively. Other virus detections included: rhinovirus (12.4%), enterovirus (8.9%), influenza B (8.3%), adenovirus (5.3%), parainfluenza (4.7%), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (3.9%), human coronavirus (3.0%) and human metapneumovirus (0.3%). The detection rate was greatest in the 0–5 year age group. Viral co-infections were identified in 148 (6.9%) cases. Discussion The outbreak in 2009 of the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic strain provided a practical test of the laboratory’s pandemic plan. This study shows that the availability of appropriate equipment and molecular-based testing can contribute to important individual and public health outcomes in geographical locations susceptible to emerging infections. PMID:23908924

Coordination and resource-related difficulties encountered by Quebec's public health specialists and infectious diseases/medical microbiologists in the management of A (H1N1)--a mixed-method, exploratory survey.

PubMed

Nhan, Charles; Laprise, Réjean; Douville-Fradet, Monique; Macdonald, Mary Ellen; Quach, Caroline

2012-02-10

In Quebec, the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was managed using a top-down style that left many involved players with critical views and frustrations. We aimed to describe physicians' perceptions--infectious diseases specialists/medical microbiologists (IDMM) and public health/preventive medicine specialists (PHPMS)--in regards to issues encountered with the pandemics management at the physician level and highlight suggested improvements for future healthcare emergencies. In April 2010, Quebec IDMM and PHPMS physicians were invited to anonymously complete a web-based learning needs assessment. The survey included both open-ended and multiple-choice questions. Descriptive statistics were used to report on the frequency distribution of multiple choice responses whereas thematic content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data generated from the survey and help understand respondents' experience and perceptions with the pandemics. Of the 102 respondents, 85.3% reported difficulties or frustrations in their practice during the pandemic. The thematic analysis revealed two core themes describing the problems experienced in the pandemic management: coordination and resource-related difficulties. Coordination issues included communication, clinical practice guidelines, decision-making, roles and responsibilities, epidemiological investigation, and public health expert advisory committees. Resources issues included laboratory resources, patient management, and vaccination process. Together, the quantitative and qualitative data suggest a need for improved coordination, a better definition of roles and responsibilities, increased use of information technologies, merged communications, and transparency in the decisional process. Increased flexibility and less contradiction in clinical practice guidelines from different sources and increased laboratory/clinical capacity were felt critical to the proper management of infectious disease emergencies.

Pandemic Planning Guide for Alberta School Authorities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alberta Education, 2008

2008-01-01

A crisis always seems like something that happens somewhere else - that is, until it arrives on your doorstep. Although other issues and challenges scream for your attention, School Authorities should not postpone developing an influenza pandemic plan. The "Pandemic Planning Guide for Alberta School Authorities" (the "Guide")…

76 FR 37124 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission for Office of Management and Budget Review...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-24

... Dietary Supplements During an Influenza Pandemic; Availability AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS... Postmarketing Adverse Event Reporting for Medical Products and Dietary Supplements During an Influenza Pandemic... Reporting for Medical Products and Dietary Supplements During an Influenza Pandemic; Availability--(OMB...

Free energy simulations reveal a double mutant avian H5N1 virus hemagglutinin with altered receptor binding specificity.

PubMed

Das, Payel; Li, Jingyuan; Royyuru, Ajay K; Zhou, Ruhong

2009-08-01

Historically, influenza pandemics have been triggered when an avian influenza virus or a human/avian reassorted virus acquires the ability to replicate efficiently and become transmissible in the human population. Most critically, the major surface glycoprotein hemagglutinin (HA) must adapt to the usage of human-like (alpha-2,6-linked) sialylated glycan receptors. Therefore, identification of mutations that can switch the currently circulating H5N1 HA receptor binding specificity from avian to human might provide leads to the emergence of pandemic H5N1 viruses. To define such mutations in the H5 subtype, here we provide a computational framework that combines molecular modeling with extensive free energy simulations. Our results show that the simulated binding affinities are in good agreement with currently available experimental data. Moreover, we predict that one double mutation (V135S and A138S) in HA significantly enhances alpha-2,6-linked receptor recognition by the H5 subtype. Our simulations indicate that this double mutation in H5N1 HA increases the binding affinity to alpha-2,6-linked sialic acid receptors by 2.6 +/- 0.7 kcal/mol per HA monomer that primarily arises from the electrostatic interactions. Further analyses reveal that introduction of this double mutation results in a conformational change in the receptor binding pocket of H5N1 HA. As a result, a major rearrangement occurs in the hydrogen-bonding network of HA with the human receptor, making the human receptor binding pattern of double mutant H5N1 HA surprisingly similar to that observed in human H1N1 HA. These large scale molecular simulations on single and double mutants thus provide new insights into our understanding toward human adaptation of the avian H5N1 virus. 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Application of an individual-based model with real data for transportation mode and location to pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Ohkusa, Yasushi; Sugawara, Tamie

2007-12-01

Currently, an individual-based model is a basic tool for creating a plan to prepare for the outbreak of pandemic influenza. However, even if we can construct the model as finely as possible, it cannot mimic the real world precisely. Therefore, we should use real data for transportation modes and locations, and simulate the diffusion of an infectious disease into that real data. In the present study, we obtained data on the transportation modes and locations of 0.88 million persons a day in the Tokyo metropolitan area. First, we defined the location of all individuals in the data set every 6 min. Second, we determined how many people they came in contact with in their household, in each area, and on the train, and then we assumed that a certain percentage of those contacted would become infected and transmit the disease. Data for natural history and other parameters were taken from previous research. The average number of contacts in each area was 51 748 (95% confidence intervals [CI],46 846-56 650]), at home it was 246 (95% CI, 232-260), and on the train it was 91 (95% CI, 81-101). The number of newly infected people was estimated to be 3032 on day 7 and 126 951 on day 10. The geographic diffusion on day 7, the day when the earliest response would have started, expanded to the whole of the Tokyo metropolitan area. We were able to realize the speed and geographic spread of infection with the highest reality. Therefore, we can use this model for making preparedness plans.

Evolution of scaling emergence in large-scale spatial epidemic spreading.

PubMed

Wang, Lin; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yi-Qing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Kan

2011-01-01

Zipf's law and Heaps' law are two representatives of the scaling concepts, which play a significant role in the study of complexity science. The coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law motivates different understandings on the dependence between these two scalings, which has still hardly been clarified. In this article, we observe an evolution process of the scalings: the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law are naturally shaped to coexist at the initial time, while the crossover comes with the emergence of their inconsistency at the larger time before reaching a stable state, where the Heaps' law still exists with the disappearance of strict Zipf's law. Such findings are illustrated with a scenario of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading, and the empirical results of pandemic disease support a universal analysis of the relation between the two laws regardless of the biological details of disease. Employing the United States domestic air transportation and demographic data to construct a metapopulation model for simulating the pandemic spread at the U.S. country level, we uncover that the broad heterogeneity of the infrastructure plays a key role in the evolution of scaling emergence. The analyses of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading help understand the temporal evolution of scalings, indicating the coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law depends on the collective dynamics of epidemic processes, and the heterogeneity of epidemic spread indicates the significance of performing targeted containment strategies at the early time of a pandemic disease.

77 FR 6625 - Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and Health Care...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-08

... DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for... its National Center for Ethics in Health Care (NCEHC) invites interested parties to comment on a guidance document entitled ``Meeting the Challenge of Pandemic Influenza: Ethical Guidance for Leaders and...

5 CFR 550.409 - Evacuation payments during a pandemic health crisis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... health crisis. 550.409 Section 550.409 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL... during a pandemic health crisis. (a) An agency may order one or more employees to evacuate from their... the employee) during a pandemic health crisis without regard to whether the agency and the employee...

[Swine-origin influenza H1N1/California--passions and facts].

PubMed

Gendon, Iu Z

2010-01-01

Analysis of pandemic caused by swine influenza virus H1N1/California showed moderate virulence of this virus compared to pandemic viruses, which caused pandemics in 1918, 1957, and 1968. During seasonal influenza epidemic in countries of southern hemisphere (June-August 2009) despite on circulation of H1N1/California strain, epidemics was caused by human influenza viruses H3N2 and H1N1. It was concluded that strain H1N1/California could not be attributed to pandemic strains of influenza viruses.

Evolutionary pattern of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 virus in the late phases of the 2009 pandemic.

PubMed Central

Valli, Maria Beatrice; Meschi, Silvia; Selleri, Marina; Zaccaro, Paola; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; Menzo, Stefano

2010-01-01

Influenza A( H1N1)v has spread rapidly in all parts of the globe in 2009 as a true pandemic, although fortunately a clinically mild one. The relevant evolutionary steps for the new virus to adapt to human populations occurred very early during the pandemic, before the end of April. Of the several resulting clades or clusters, clade 7 appeared later and proved more successful, substituting all other early clades before the bulk of the worldwide infections occurred. PMID:20228856

A cross-sectional study of pandemic influenza health literacy and the effect of a public health campaign

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background To ascertain the understanding of 2009 pandemic (H1N1) influenza and relevant infection control measures in an emergency department population and to assess the effectiveness of education campaigns in informing the public about the pandemic. Methods Questionnaires were administered to patients, visitors, non-clinical staff and volunteers. Data were collected on knowledge, preventative measures, information sources, attitudes to government and media reporting, perceived seriousness, behaviour change and intended compliance with future measures. Results were used to construct an overall knowledge score. Results There were 252 participants. Traditional forms of mass media (138 [55%]) remained the principal information source. Approximately 70% (176) accurately described mode of transmission and recommended precautions and 68% (175) reported behaviour change because of the pandemic. Gaps in knowledge included failure to identify certain high risk groups. Recall of government campaigns was significantly associated with a higher knowledge score. 60% (151) thought that authorities and media had exaggerated the threat; only 40% (101) would comply with recommended measures in a future pandemic. Conclusions The knowledge regarding pandemic influenza was high in this population and positively affected by official campaigns. Pandemic planning should address knowledge gaps and the impression that authorities had exaggerated the public-health threat. PMID:22830499

Enhanced risk of illness during the 1918 influenza pandemic after previous influenza-like illnesses in three military populations.

PubMed

Shanks, G D; Burroughs, S A; Sohn, J D; Waters, N C; Smith, V F; Waller, M; Brundage, J F

2016-07-01

The reasons for the unprecedented mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic remain poorly understood. We examined morbidity records from three military cohorts from years prior to and during the 1918 pandemic period to assess the effects of previous respiratory illnesses on experiences during the pandemic. Clinical registers and morbidity lists were examined to identify all medical encounters for acute respiratory illnesses in students at two U.S. military officer training academies and Australian soldiers deployed in Europe. Influenza-like illness prior to the major pandemic wave of 1918 predisposed Australian soldiers [relative risk (RR) 1·37, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·18-1·60, P < 0·0001] and US officer trainees at West Point (RR 3·10, 95% CI 2·13-4·52, P < 0·0001) and Annapolis (RR 2·03, 95% CI 1·65-2·50, P < 0·0001) to increased risks of medically treated illnesses in late 1918. The findings suggest that susceptibility to and/or clinical expressions of the 1918 pandemic influenza virus depended on previous experiences with respiratory infectious agents. The findings are consistent with observations during the 2009 pandemic in Canada and may reflect antibody-dependent enhancement of influenza infection.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland.

PubMed

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L; Egger, Matthias; Fenner, Lukas

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4-1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7-18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8-2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1-1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries.

Factors associated with preparedness of the US healthcare system to respond to a pediatric surge during an infectious disease pandemic: Is our nation prepared?

PubMed

Anthony, Christy; Thomas, Tito Joe; Berg, Bridget M; Burke, Rita V; Upperman, Jeffrey S

2017-01-01

Recent incidents have demonstrated that the US health system is unprepared for infectious pandemics resulting in a pediatric surge. Development of efficient plans and a structured and coordinated regional response to pediatric pandemic surge remains an opportunity. To address this gap, we conducted a literature review to assess current efforts, propose a response plan structure, and recommend policy actions. A literature review, utilizing MEDLINE and PubMed, through March 2017 identified articles regarding infectious disease pandemics affecting the US pediatric population. After review of current literature, a proposed response plan structure for a pediatric pandemic surge was designed. Inclusion and exclusion criteria reduced an initial screening of 1,787 articles to 162 articles. Articles ranged in their discussion of pediatric pandemic surge. Review of the articles led to the proposal of organizing the results according to 4 S's; (1) Structure, (2) Staff, (3) Stuff (Resources), and (4) Space. The review has supported the concern that the US health system is unprepared for a pediatric surge induced by infectious disease pandemics. Common themes suggest that response plans should reflect the 4Ss and national guidelines must be translated into regional response systems that account for local nuances.

Prioritization of influenza pandemic vaccination to minimize years of life lost.

PubMed

Miller, Mark A; Viboud, Cecile; Olson, Donald R; Grais, Rebecca F; Rabaa, Maia A; Simonsen, Lone

2008-08-01

How to allocate limited vaccine supplies in the event of an influenza pandemic is currently under debate. Conventional vaccination strategies focus on those at highest risk for severe outcomes, including seniors, but do not consider (1) the signature pandemic pattern in which mortality risk is shifted to younger ages, (2) likely reduced vaccine response in seniors, and (3) differences in remaining years of life with age. We integrated these factors to project the age-specific years of life lost (YLL) and saved in a future pandemic, on the basis of mortality patterns from 3 historical pandemics, age-specific vaccine efficacy, and the 2000 US population structure. For a 1918-like scenario, the absolute mortality risk is highest in people <45 years old; in contrast, seniors (those >or=65 years old) have the highest mortality risk in the 1957 and 1968 scenarios. The greatest YLL savings would be achieved by targeting different age groups in each scenario; people <45 years old in the 1918 scenario, people 45-64 years old in the 1968 scenario, and people >45 years old in the 1957 scenario. Our findings shift the focus of pandemic vaccination strategies onto younger populations and illustrate the need for real-time surveillance of mortality patterns in a future pandemic. Flexible setting of vaccination priority is essential to minimize mortality.

Pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 infection in Victoria, Australia: no evidence for harm or benefit following receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in 2009.

PubMed

Kelly, Heath A; Grant, Kristina A; Fielding, James E; Carville, Kylie S; Looker, Clare O; Tran, Thomas; Jacoby, Peter

2011-08-26

Conflicting findings regarding the level of protection offered by seasonal influenza vaccination against pandemic influenza H1N1 have been reported. We performed a test-negative case control study using sentinel patients from general practices in Victoria to estimate seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory proven infection with pandemic influenza. Cases were defined as patients with an influenza-like illness who tested positive for influenza while controls had an influenza-like illness but tested negative. We found no evidence of significant protection from seasonal vaccine against pandemic influenza virus infection in any age group. Age-stratified point estimates, adjusted for pandemic phase, ranged from 44% in persons aged less than 5 years to -103% (odds ratio=2.03) in persons aged 50-64 years. Vaccine effectiveness, adjusted for age group and pandemic phase, was 3% (95% CI -48 to 37) for all patients. Our study confirms the results from our previous interim report, and other studies, that failed to demonstrate benefit or harm from receipt of seasonal influenza vaccine in patients with confirmed infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DNA vaccination elicits protective immune responses against pandemic and classic swine influenza viruses in pigs.

PubMed

Gorres, J Patrick; Lager, Kelly M; Kong, Wing-Pui; Royals, Michael; Todd, John-Paul; Vincent, Amy L; Wei, Chih-Jen; Loving, Crystal L; Zanella, Eraldo L; Janke, Bruce; Kehrli, Marcus E; Nabel, Gary J; Rao, Srinivas S

2011-11-01

Swine influenza is a highly contagious viral infection in pigs that significantly impacts the pork industry due to weight loss and secondary infections. There is also the potential of a significant threat to public health, as was seen in 2009 when the pandemic H1N1 influenza virus strain emerged from reassortment events among avian, swine, and human influenza viruses within pigs. As classic and pandemic H1N1 strains now circulate in swine, an effective vaccine may be the best strategy to protect the pork industry and public health. Current inactivated-virus vaccines available for swine influenza protect only against viral strains closely related to the vaccine strain, and egg-based production of these vaccines is insufficient to respond to large outbreaks. DNA vaccines are a promising alternative since they can potentially induce broad-based protection with more efficient production methods. In this study we evaluated the potentials of monovalent and trivalent DNA vaccine constructs to (i) elicit both humoral and gamma interferon (IFN-γ) responses and (ii) protect pigs against viral shedding and lung disease after challenge with pandemic H1N1 or classic swine H1N1 influenza virus. We also compared the efficiency of a needle-free vaccine delivery method to that of a conventional needle/syringe injection. We report that DNA vaccination elicits robust serum antibody and cellular responses after three immunizations and confers significant protection against influenza virus challenge. Needle-free delivery elicited improved antibody responses with the same efficiency as conventional injection and should be considered for development as a practical alternative for vaccine administration.

Adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine: variation of emulsion components affects stability, antigen structure, and vaccine efficacy

PubMed Central

Fox, Christopher B.; Barnes V, Lucien; Evers, Tara; Chesko, James D.; Vedvick, Thomas S.; Coler, Rhea N.; Reed, Steven G.; Baldwin, Susan L.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Fox et al. (2012) Adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine: variation of emulsion components affects stability, antigen structure, and vaccine efficacy. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI: 10.1111/irv.12031. Abstract Background  Adjuvant formulations are critical components of modern vaccines based on recombinant proteins, which are often poorly immunogenic without additional immune stimulants. Oil‐in‐water emulsions comprise an advanced class of vaccine adjuvants that are components of approved seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines. However, few reports have been published that systematically evaluate the in vitro stability and in vivo adjuvant effects of different emulsion components. Objectives  To evaluate distinct classes of surfactants, oils, and excipients, for their effects on emulsion particle size stability, antigen structural interactions, and in vivo activity when formulated with a recombinant H5N1 antigen. Methods  Emulsions were manufactured by high pressure homogenization and characterized alone or in the presence of vaccine antigen by dynamic light scattering, zeta potential, viscosity, pH, hemolytic activity, electron microscopy, fluorescence spectroscopy, and SDS‐PAGE. In vivo vaccine activity in the murine model was characterized by measuring antibody titers, antibody‐secreting plasma cells, hemagglutination inhibition titers, and cytokine production. Results  We demonstrate that surfactant class and presence of additional excipients are not critical for biological activity, whereas oil structure is crucial. Moreover, we report that simplified two‐component emulsions appear more stable by particle size than more complex formulations.Finally, differences in antigen structural interactions with the various emulsions do not appear to correlate with in vivo activity. Conclusions  Oil‐in‐water emulsions can significantly enhance antibody and cellular immune responses to a pandemic influenza antigen. The dramatic differences in adjuvant activity between squalene‐based emulsion and medium chain triglyceride‐based emulsion are due principally to the biological activity of the oil composition rather than physical interactions of the antigen with the emulsion. PMID:23122325

Population‐based surveillance for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Guatemala, 2009

PubMed Central

Reyes, Lissette; Arvelo, Wences; Estevez, Alejandra; Gray, Jennifer; Moir, Juan C.; Gordillo, Betty; Frenkel, Gal; Ardón, Francisco; Moscoso, Fabiola; Olsen, Sonja J.; Fry, Alicia M.; Lindstrom, Steve; Lindblade, Kim A.

2010-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Reyes et al. (2010) Population‐based surveillance for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Guatemala, 2009. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(3), 129–140. Background  In April 2009, 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 (2009 H1N1) was first identified in Mexico but did not cause widespread transmission in neighboring Guatemala until several weeks later. Methodology and principle findings  Using a population‐based surveillance system for hospitalized pneumonia and influenza‐like illness ongoing before the 2009 H1N1 pandemic began, we tracked the onset of 2009 H1N1 infection in Guatemala. We identified 239 individuals infected with influenza A (2009 H1N1) between May and December 2009, of whom 76 were hospitalized with pneumonia and 11 died (case fatality proportion: 4·6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2·3–8·1%). The median age of patients infected with 2009 H1N1 was 8·8 years, the median age of those hospitalized with pneumonia was 4·2 years, and five (45·5%) deaths occurred in children <5 years old. Crude rates of hospitalization between May and December 2009 were highest for children <5 years old. Twenty‐one (27·6%) of the patients hospitalized with 2009 H1N1 were admitted to the intensive care unit and eight (10·5%) required mechanical ventilation. Underlying chronic conditions were noted in 14 (18·4%) of patients with pneumonia hospitalized with 2009 H1N1 infection. Conclusions and significance  Chronic illnesses may be underdiagnosed in Guatemala, making it difficult to identify this risk group for vaccination. Children 6 months to 5 years old should be among priority groups for vaccination to prevent serious consequences because of 2009 H1N1 infection. PMID:20409209

Reassessing Google Flu Trends Data for Detection of Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza: A Comparative Epidemiological Study at Three Geographic Scales

PubMed Central

Olson, Donald R.; Konty, Kevin J.; Paladini, Marc; Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone

2013-01-01

The goal of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance is to determine the timing, location and magnitude of outbreaks by monitoring the frequency and progression of clinical case incidence. Advances in computational and information technology have allowed for automated collection of higher volumes of electronic data and more timely analyses than previously possible. Novel surveillance systems, including those based on internet search query data like Google Flu Trends (GFT), are being used as surrogates for clinically-based reporting of influenza-like-illness (ILI). We investigated the reliability of GFT during the last decade (2003 to 2013), and compared weekly public health surveillance with search query data to characterize the timing and intensity of seasonal and pandemic influenza at the national (United States), regional (Mid-Atlantic) and local (New York City) levels. We identified substantial flaws in the original and updated GFT models at all three geographic scales, including completely missing the first wave of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic, and greatly overestimating the intensity of the A/H3N2 epidemic during the 2012/2013 season. These results were obtained for both the original (2008) and the updated (2009) GFT algorithms. The performance of both models was problematic, perhaps because of changes in internet search behavior and differences in the seasonality, geographical heterogeneity and age-distribution of the epidemics between the periods of GFT model-fitting and prospective use. We conclude that GFT data may not provide reliable surveillance for seasonal or pandemic influenza and should be interpreted with caution until the algorithm can be improved and evaluated. Current internet search query data are no substitute for timely local clinical and laboratory surveillance, or national surveillance based on local data collection. New generation surveillance systems such as GFT should incorporate the use of near-real time electronic health data and computational methods for continued model-fitting and ongoing evaluation and improvement. PMID:24146603

Engagement and education: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Devereaux, Asha V; Tosh, Pritish K; Hick, John L; Hanfling, Dan; Geiling, James; Reed, Mary Jane; Uyeki, Timothy M; Shah, Umair A; Fagbuyi, Daniel B; Skippen, Peter; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Kissoon, Niranjan; Christian, Michael D; Upperman, Jeffrey S

2014-10-01

Engagement and education of ICU clinicians in disaster preparedness is fragmented by time constraints and institutional barriers and frequently occurs during a disaster. We reviewed the existing literature from 2007 to April 2013 and expert opinions about clinician engagement and education for critical care during a pandemic or disaster and offer suggestions for integrating ICU clinicians into planning and response. The suggestions in this article are important for all of those involved in a pandemic or large-scale disaster with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. A systematic literature review was performed and suggestions formulated according to the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST) Consensus Statement development methodology. We assessed articles, documents, reports, and gray literature reported since 2007. Following expert-informed sorting and review of the literature, key priority areas and questions were developed. No studies of sufficient quality were identified upon which to make evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Twenty-three suggestions were formulated based on literature-informed consensus opinion. These suggestions are grouped according to the following thematic elements: (1) situational awareness, (2) clinician roles and responsibilities, (3) education, and (4) community engagement. Together, these four elements are considered to form the basis for effective ICU clinician engagement for mass critical care. The optimal engagement of the ICU clinical team in caring for large numbers of critically ill patients due to a pandemic or disaster will require a departure from the routine independent systems operating in hospitals. An effective response will require robust information systems; coordination among clinicians, hospitals, and governmental organizations; pre-event engagement of relevant stakeholders; and standardized core competencies for the education and training of critical care clinicians.

Reassessing Google Flu Trends data for detection of seasonal and pandemic influenza: a comparative epidemiological study at three geographic scales.

PubMed

Olson, Donald R; Konty, Kevin J; Paladini, Marc; Viboud, Cecile; Simonsen, Lone

2013-01-01

The goal of influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance is to determine the timing, location and magnitude of outbreaks by monitoring the frequency and progression of clinical case incidence. Advances in computational and information technology have allowed for automated collection of higher volumes of electronic data and more timely analyses than previously possible. Novel surveillance systems, including those based on internet search query data like Google Flu Trends (GFT), are being used as surrogates for clinically-based reporting of influenza-like-illness (ILI). We investigated the reliability of GFT during the last decade (2003 to 2013), and compared weekly public health surveillance with search query data to characterize the timing and intensity of seasonal and pandemic influenza at the national (United States), regional (Mid-Atlantic) and local (New York City) levels. We identified substantial flaws in the original and updated GFT models at all three geographic scales, including completely missing the first wave of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic, and greatly overestimating the intensity of the A/H3N2 epidemic during the 2012/2013 season. These results were obtained for both the original (2008) and the updated (2009) GFT algorithms. The performance of both models was problematic, perhaps because of changes in internet search behavior and differences in the seasonality, geographical heterogeneity and age-distribution of the epidemics between the periods of GFT model-fitting and prospective use. We conclude that GFT data may not provide reliable surveillance for seasonal or pandemic influenza and should be interpreted with caution until the algorithm can be improved and evaluated. Current internet search query data are no substitute for timely local clinical and laboratory surveillance, or national surveillance based on local data collection. New generation surveillance systems such as GFT should incorporate the use of near-real time electronic health data and computational methods for continued model-fitting and ongoing evaluation and improvement.

Boosting heterosubtypic neutralization antibodies in recipients of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccine.

PubMed

Qiu, Chao; Huang, Yang; Wang, Qian; Tian, Di; Zhang, Wanju; Hu, Yunwen; Yuan, Zhenghong; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Xu, Jianqing

2012-01-01

A mass vaccination has been implemented to prevent the spread of 2009 pandemic influenza virus in China. Highly limited information is available on whether this vaccine induces cross-reactive neutralization antibodies against other subtypes of influenza viruses. We employed pseudovirus-based assays to analyze heterosubtypic neutralization responses in serum samples of 23 recipients of 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine. One dose of pandemic vaccine not only stimulated good neutralization antibodies against cognate influenza virus 2009 influenza A (H1N1), but also raised broad cross-reactive neutralization activities against seasonal H3N2 and highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 and lesser to H2N2. The cross-reactive neutralization activities were completely abolished after the removal of immunoglobin G (IgG). In contrast, H1N1 vaccination alone in influenza-naive mice elicited only vigorous homologous neutralizing activities but not cross-reactive neutralization activities. Our data suggest that the cross-reactive neutralization epitopes do exist in this vaccine and could elicit significant cross-reactive neutralizing IgG antibodies in the presence of preexisting responses. The exposure to H1N1 vaccine is likely to modify the hierarchical order of preexisting immune responses to influenza viruses. These findings provide insights into the evolution of human immunity to influenza viruses after experiencing multiple influenza virus infections and vaccinations.

Meeting Report: Risk Assessment of Tamiflu Use Under Pandemic Conditions

PubMed Central

Singer, Andrew C.; Howard, Bruce M.; Johnson, Andrew C.; Knowles, Chris J.; Jackman, Simon; Accinelli, Cesare; Caracciolo, Anna Barra; Bernard, Ian; Bird, Stephen; Boucard, Tatiana; Boxall, Alistair; Brian, Jayne V.; Cartmell, Elise; Chubb, Chris; Churchley, John; Costigan, Sandra; Crane, Mark; Dempsey, Michael J.; Dorrington, Bob; Ellor, Brian; Fick, Jerker; Holmes, John; Hutchinson, Tom; Karcher, Franz; Kelleher, Samuel L.; Marsden, Peter; Noone, Gerald; Nunn, Miles A.; Oxford, John; Rachwal, Tony; Roberts, Noel; Roberts, Mike; Saccà, Maria Ludovica; Sanders, Matthew; Straub, Jürg Oliver; Terry, Adrian; Thomas, Dean; Toovey, Stephen; Townsend, Rodney; Voulvoulis, Nikolaos; Watts, Chris

2008-01-01

On 3 October 2007, 40 participants with diverse expertise attended the workshop Tamiflu and the Environment: Implications of Use under Pandemic Conditions to assess the potential human health impact and environmental hazards associated with use of Tamiflu during an influenza pandemic. Based on the identification and risk-ranking of knowledge gaps, the consensus was that oseltamivir ethylester-phosphate (OE-P) and oseltamivir carboxylate (OC) were unlikely to pose an ecotoxicologic hazard to freshwater organisms. OC in river water might hasten the generation of OC-resistance in wildfowl, but this possibility seems less likely than the potential disruption that could be posed by OC and other pharmaceuticals to the operation of sewage treatment plants. The work-group members agreed on the following research priorities: a) available data on the ecotoxicology of OE-P and OC should be published; b) risk should be assessed for OC-contaminated river water generating OC-resistant viruses in wildfowl; c) sewage treatment plant functioning due to microbial inhibition by neuraminidase inhibitors and other antimicrobials used during a pandemic should be investigated; and d) realistic worst-case exposure scenarios should be developed. Additional modeling would be useful to identify localized areas within river catchments that might be prone to high pharmaceutical concentrations in sewage treatment plant effluent. Ongoing seasonal use of Tamiflu in Japan offers opportunities for researchers to assess how much OC enters and persists in the aquatic environment. PMID:19057712

The decision making process on public health measures related to passenger ships: the example of influenza pandemic 2009.

PubMed

Mouchtouri, V A; Bartlett, C L R; Jaremin, Bogdan; Nichols, G; Paux, T; Riemer, T; Black, N; Varela-Martinez, C; Swaan, C M; Schlaich, C; Rachiotis, G; Kremastinou, J; Hadjichristodoulou, C

2010-01-01

Public health measures at sea ports have posed a challenge for public health competent authorities, especially in the context of the influenza pandemic of 2009. This paper discusses the response of authorities to notifications of infectious diseases on passenger ships and the importance of assessing the risks related to cases of influenza. It further provides options for health measures and considerations for decision making during a pandemic such as the influenza pandemic of 2009. Prevention and control of influenza have included action taken by both competent port authorities and ships' crews. Assessing the public health risk of each event reported from ships to competent authorities at ports is important before advice is given on implementation of control measures. Public health risk assessment involves appraisal of threats to passengers and crew on board the ship as well as to the population in the community. Any public health measures taken should be necessary and proportional to the threat. Measures at ports cannot alone be effective in the prevention of the spread of a disease to the community since other means of transport play a major role. Measures taken on board ships can be effective in containing the disease. Consistent policy based on common protocols and carried out by competent authorities at local, national, European, or international levels are essential.

Comparing the regional epidemiology of the cassava mosaic and cassava brown streak virus pandemics in Africa.

PubMed

Legg, J P; Jeremiah, S C; Obiero, H M; Maruthi, M N; Ndyetabula, I; Okao-Okuja, G; Bouwmeester, H; Bigirimana, S; Tata-Hangy, W; Gashaka, G; Mkamilo, G; Alicai, T; Lava Kumar, P

2011-08-01

The rapid geographical expansion of the cassava mosaic disease (CMD) pandemic, caused by cassava mosaic geminiviruses, has devastated cassava crops in 12 countries of East and Central Africa since the late 1980s. Region-level surveys have revealed a continuing pattern of annual spread westward and southward along a contiguous 'front'. More recently, outbreaks of cassava brown streak disease (CBSD) were reported from Uganda and other parts of East Africa that had been hitherto unaffected by the disease. Recent survey data reveal several significant contrasts between the regional epidemiology of these two pandemics: (i) severe CMD radiates out from an initial centre of origin, whilst CBSD seems to be spreading from independent 'hot-spots'; (ii) the severe CMD pandemic has arisen from recombination and synergy between virus species, whilst the CBSD pandemic seems to be a 'new encounter' situation between host and pathogen; (iii) CMD pandemic spread has been tightly linked with the appearance of super-abundant Bemisia tabaci whitefly vector populations, in contrast to CBSD, where outbreaks have occurred 3-12 years after whitefly population increases; (iv) the CMGs causing CMD are transmitted in a persistent manner, whilst the two cassava brown streak viruses appear to be semi-persistently transmitted; and (v) different patterns of symptom expression mean that phytosanitary measures could be implemented easily for CMD but have limited effectiveness, whereas similar measures are difficult to apply for CBSD but are potentially very effective. An important similarity between the pandemics is that the viruses occurring in pandemic-affected areas are also found elsewhere, indicating that contrary to earlier published conclusions, the viruses per se are unlikely to be the key factors driving the two pandemics. A diagrammatic representation illustrates the temporal relationship between B. tabaci abundance and changing incidences of both CMD and CBSD in the Great Lakes region. This emphasizes the pivotal role played by the vector in both pandemics and the urgent need to identify effective and sustainable strategies for controlling whiteflies on cassava. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Continual Reintroduction of Human Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Viruses into Swine in the United States, 2009 to 2014

PubMed Central

Stratton, Jered; Killian, Mary Lea; Janas-Martindale, Alicia; Vincent, Amy L.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT The diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) presents an important pandemic threat. Knowledge of the human-swine interface is particularly important for understanding how viruses with pandemic potential evolve in swine hosts. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the United States, we demonstrate that human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) viruses has occurred continuously in the years following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and has been an important contributor to the genetic diversity of U.S. swIAVs. Although pandemic H1 and N1 segments had been largely removed from the U.S. swine population by 2013 via reassortment with other swIAVs, these antigens reemerged following multiple human-to-swine transmission events during the 2013-2014 seasonal epidemic. These findings indicate that the six internal gene segments from pH1N1 viruses are likely to be sustained long term in the U.S. swine population, with periodic reemergence of pandemic hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) segments in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. Vaccinating U.S. swine workers may reduce infection of both humans and swine and in turn limit the role of humans as sources of influenza virus diversity in pigs. IMPORTANCE Swine are important hosts in the evolution of influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we analyze influenza virus sequence data generated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's national surveillance system to identify the central role of humans in the reemergence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza viruses in U.S. swine herds in 2014. These findings emphasize the important role of humans as continuous sources of influenza virus diversity in swine and indicate that influenza viruses with pandemic HA and NA segments are likely to continue to reemerge in U.S. swine in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. PMID:25833052

Continual Reintroduction of Human Pandemic H1N1 Influenza A Viruses into Swine in the United States, 2009 to 2014.

PubMed

Nelson, Martha I; Stratton, Jered; Killian, Mary Lea; Janas-Martindale, Alicia; Vincent, Amy L

2015-06-01

The diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) presents an important pandemic threat. Knowledge of the human-swine interface is particularly important for understanding how viruses with pandemic potential evolve in swine hosts. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the United States, we demonstrate that human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) viruses has occurred continuously in the years following the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and has been an important contributor to the genetic diversity of U.S. swIAVs. Although pandemic H1 and N1 segments had been largely removed from the U.S. swine population by 2013 via reassortment with other swIAVs, these antigens reemerged following multiple human-to-swine transmission events during the 2013-2014 seasonal epidemic. These findings indicate that the six internal gene segments from pH1N1 viruses are likely to be sustained long term in the U.S. swine population, with periodic reemergence of pandemic hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) segments in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. Vaccinating U.S. swine workers may reduce infection of both humans and swine and in turn limit the role of humans as sources of influenza virus diversity in pigs. Swine are important hosts in the evolution of influenza A viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we analyze influenza virus sequence data generated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's national surveillance system to identify the central role of humans in the reemergence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza viruses in U.S. swine herds in 2014. These findings emphasize the important role of humans as continuous sources of influenza virus diversity in swine and indicate that influenza viruses with pandemic HA and NA segments are likely to continue to reemerge in U.S. swine in association with seasonal pH1N1 epidemics in humans. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

The evolving threat of influenza viruses of animal origin and the challenges in developing appropriate diagnostics.

PubMed

Mak, Polly W Y; Jayawardena, Shanthi; Poon, Leo L M

2012-11-01

An H1N1 subtype of swine origin caused the first influenza pandemic in this century. This pandemic strain was a reassortant of avian, swine, and human influenza viruses. Many diagnostic laboratories were overwhelmed by the testing demands related to this pandemic. Nevertheless, there remains the threat of other animal influenza viruses, such as highly pathogenic H5N1. As a part of pandemic preparedness, it is essential to identify the diagnostic challenges that will accompany the next pandemic. We discuss the natural reservoir of influenza viruses and the possible role of livestock in the emergence of pandemic strains. The current commonly used molecular tests for influenza diagnosis or surveillance are also briefly reviewed. Some of these approaches are also used to detect animal viruses. Unfortunately, owing to a lack of systematic surveillance of animal influenza viruses, established tests may not be able to detect pandemic strains that have yet to emerge from the animal reservoir. Thus, multiple strategies need to be developed for better identification of influenza viruses. In addition, molecular assays for detection of mutations associated with antiviral resistance and for viral segment reassortments should also be encouraged. Influenza viruses are highly dynamic viruses. Regular and systematic influenza surveillance in both humans and animals is essential to provide a more comprehensive picture of the prevalent influenza viruses. To better prepare for the next pandemic, we should develop some simple and easy-to-use tests for characterizing newly emerging influenza viruses. © 2012 American Association for Clinical Chemistry

Isolation of a High Affinity Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibody against 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Virus That Binds at the ‘Sa’ Antigenic Site

PubMed Central

Mishra, Arpita; Yeolekar, Leena; Dhere, Rajeev; Kapre, Subhash; Varadarajan, Raghavan; Gupta, Satish Kumar

2013-01-01

Influenza virus evades host immunity through antigenic drift and shift, and continues to circulate in the human population causing periodic outbreaks including the recent 2009 pandemic. A large segment of the population was potentially susceptible to this novel strain of virus. Historically, monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) have been fundamental tools for diagnosis and epitope mapping of influenza viruses and their importance as an alternate treatment option is also being realized. The current study describes isolation of a high affinity (K D = 2.1±0.4 pM) murine MAb, MA2077 that binds specifically to the hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein of the pandemic virus. The antibody neutralized the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus in an in vitro microneutralization assay (IC50 = 0.08 µg/ml). MA2077 also showed hemagglutination inhibition activity (HI titre of 0.50 µg/ml) against the pandemic virus. In a competition ELISA, MA2077 competed with the binding site of the human MAb, 2D1 (isolated from a survivor of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic) on pandemic H1N1 HA. Epitope mapping studies using yeast cell-surface display of a stable HA1 fragment, wherein ‘Sa’ and ‘Sb’ sites were independently mutated, localized the binding site of MA2077 within the ‘Sa’ antigenic site. These studies will facilitate our understanding of antigen antibody interaction in the context of neutralization of the pandemic influenza virus. PMID:23383214

Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic

PubMed Central

Shanks, G. Dennis; Hussell, Tracy; Brundage, John F.

2012-01-01

Please cite this paper as: Shanks et al. (2012) Epidemiological isolation causing variable mortality in Island populations during the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 6(6), 417–423. Background  During the 1918 pandemic period, influenza‐related mortality increased worldwide; however, mortality rates varied widely across locations and demographic subgroups. Islands are isolated epidemiological situations that may elucidate why influenza pandemic mortality rates were so variable in apparently similar populations. Objectives  Our objectives were to determine and compare the patterns of pandemic influenza mortality on islands. Methods  We reviewed historical records of mortality associated with the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic in various military and civilian groups on islands. Results and Conclusions  Mortality differed more than 50‐fold during pandemic‐related epidemics on Pacific islands [range: 0·4% (Hawaii) to 22% (Samoa)], and on some islands, mortality sharply varied among demographic subgroups of island residents such as Saipan: Chamorros [12%] and Caroline Islanders [0·4%]. Among soldiers from island populations who had completed initial military training, influenza‐related mortality rates were generally low, for example, Puerto Rico (0·7%) and French Polynesia (0·13%). The findings suggest that among island residents, those who had been exposed to multiple, antigenically diverse respiratory pathogens prior to infection with the 1918 pandemic strain (e.g., less isolated) experienced lower mortality. The continuous circulation of antigenically diverse influenza viruses and other respiratory infectious agents makes widespread high mortality during future influenza pandemics unlikely. PMID:22226378

Hospital Employee Willingness to Work during Earthquakes Versus Pandemics.

PubMed

Charney, Rachel L; Rebmann, Terri; Flood, Robert G

2015-11-01

Research indicates that licensed health care workers are less willing to work during a pandemic and that the willingness of nonlicensed staff to work has had limited assessment. We sought to assess and compare the willingness to work in all hospital workers during pandemics and earthquakes. An online survey was distributed to Missouri hospital employees. Participants were presented with 2 disaster scenarios (pandemic influenza and earthquake); willingness, ability, and barriers to work were measured. T tests compared willingness to work during a pandemic vs. an earthquake. Multivariate linear regression analyses were conducted to describe factors associated with a higher willingness to work. One thousand eight hundred twenty-two employees participated (15% response rate). More willingness to work was reported for an earthquake than a pandemic (93.3% vs. 84.8%; t = 17.1; p < 0.001). Significantly fewer respondents reported the ability to work during a pandemic (83.5%; t = 17.1; p < 0.001) or an earthquake (89.8%; t = 13.3; p < 0.001) compared to their willingness to work. From multivariate linear regression, factors associated with pandemic willingness to work were as follows: 1) no children ≤3 years of age; 2) older children; 3) working full-time; 4) less concern for family; 5) less fear of job loss; and 6) vaccine availability. Earthquake willingness factors included: 1) not having children with special needs and 2) not working a different role. Improving care for dependent family members, worker protection, cross training, and job importance education may increase willingness to work during disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Monitoring the level of government trust, risk perception and intention of the general public to adopt protective measures during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in The Netherlands.

PubMed

van der Weerd, Willemien; Timmermans, Daniëlle Rm; Beaujean, Desirée Jma; Oudhoff, Jurriaan; van Steenbergen, Jim E

2011-07-19

During the course of an influenza pandemic, governments know relatively little about the possibly changing influence of government trust, risk perception, and receipt of information on the public's intention to adopt protective measures or on the acceptance of vaccination. This study aims to identify and describe possible changes in and factors associated with public's intentions during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the Netherlands. Sixteen cross-sectional telephone surveys were conducted (N = 8060) between April - November 2009. From these repeated measurements three consecutive periods were categorized based on crucial events during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Time trends in government trust, risk perception, intention to adopt protective measures, and the acceptance of vaccination were analysed. Factors associated with an intention to adopt protective measures or vaccination were identified. Trust in the government was high, but decreased over time. During the course of the pandemic, perceived vulnerability and an intention to adopt protective measures increased. Trust and vulnerability were associated with an intention to adopt protective measures in general only during period one. Higher levels of intention to receive vaccination were associated with increased government trust, fear/worry, and perceived vulnerability. In periods two and three receipt of information was positively associated with an intention to adopt protective measures. Most respondents wanted to receive information about infection prevention from municipal health services, health care providers, and the media. The Dutch response to the H1N1 virus was relatively muted. Higher levels of trust in the government, fear/worry, and perceived vulnerability were all positively related to an intention to accept vaccination. Only fear/worry was positively linked to an intention to adopt protective measures during the entire pandemic. Risk and crisis communication by the government should focus on building and maintaining trust by providing information about preventing infection in close collaboration with municipal health services, health care providers, and the media.

A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination: A retrospective evaluation of adverse maternal, fetal and neonatal outcomes in a cohort of pregnant women in Italy.

PubMed

Fabiani, Massimo; Bella, Antonino; Rota, Maria C; Clagnan, Elena; Gallo, Tolinda; D'Amato, Maurizio; Pezzotti, Patrizio; Ferrara, Lorenza; Demicheli, Vittorio; Martinelli, Domenico; Prato, Rosa; Rizzo, Caterina

2015-05-05

Although concerns about safety of influenza vaccination during pregnancy have been raised in the past, vaccination of pregnant women was recommended in many countries during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the risk of adverse maternal, fetal and neonatal outcomes among pregnant women vaccinated with a MF59-adjuvanted A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine. The study was carried out in four Italian regions (Piemonte, Friuli-Venezia-Giulia, Lazio, and Puglia) among 102,077 pregnant women potentially exposed during the second or third trimester of gestation to the vaccination campaign implemented in 2009/2010. Based on data retrieved from the regional administrative databases, the statistical analysis was performed using the Cox proportional-hazards model, adjusting for the propensity score to account for the potential confounding effect due to the socio-demographic characteristics and the clinical and reproductive history of women. A total of 100,332 pregnant women were eligible for the analysis. Of these, 2003 (2.0%) received the A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination during the second or third trimester of gestation. We did not observe any statistically significant association between the A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination and different maternal outcomes (hospital admissions for influenza, pneumonia, hypertension, eclampsia, diabetes, thyroid disease, and anaemia), fetal outcomes (fetal death after the 22nd gestational week) and neonatal outcomes (pre-term birth, low birth weight, low 5-min Apgar score, and congenital malformations). Pre-existing health-risk conditions (hospital admissions and drug prescriptions for specific diseases before the onset of pregnancy) were observed more frequently among vaccinated women, thus suggesting that concomitant chronic conditions increased vaccination uptake. The results of this study add some evidence on the safety of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccination during pregnancy but, because of the reduced statistical power, meta-analyses and large multi-centres studies are needed in order to obtain more conclusive results, especially for rare outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monitoring the level of government trust, risk perception and intention of the general public to adopt protective measures during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background During the course of an influenza pandemic, governments know relatively little about the possibly changing influence of government trust, risk perception, and receipt of information on the public's intention to adopt protective measures or on the acceptance of vaccination. This study aims to identify and describe possible changes in and factors associated with public's intentions during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the Netherlands. Methods Sixteen cross-sectional telephone surveys were conducted (N = 8060) between April - November 2009. From these repeated measurements three consecutive periods were categorized based on crucial events during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. Time trends in government trust, risk perception, intention to adopt protective measures, and the acceptance of vaccination were analysed. Factors associated with an intention to adopt protective measures or vaccination were identified. Results Trust in the government was high, but decreased over time. During the course of the pandemic, perceived vulnerability and an intention to adopt protective measures increased. Trust and vulnerability were associated with an intention to adopt protective measures in general only during period one. Higher levels of intention to receive vaccination were associated with increased government trust, fear/worry, and perceived vulnerability. In periods two and three receipt of information was positively associated with an intention to adopt protective measures. Most respondents wanted to receive information about infection prevention from municipal health services, health care providers, and the media. Conclusions The Dutch response to the H1N1 virus was relatively muted. Higher levels of trust in the government, fear/worry, and perceived vulnerability were all positively related to an intention to accept vaccination. Only fear/worry was positively linked to an intention to adopt protective measures during the entire pandemic. Risk and crisis communication by the government should focus on building and maintaining trust by providing information about preventing infection in close collaboration with municipal health services, health care providers, and the media. PMID:21771296

Using online social networks to track a pandemic: A systematic review.

PubMed

Al-Garadi, Mohammed Ali; Khan, Muhammad Sadiq; Varathan, Kasturi Dewi; Mujtaba, Ghulam; Al-Kabsi, Abdelkodose M

2016-08-01

The popularity and proliferation of online social networks (OSNs) have created massive social interaction among users that generate an extensive amount of data. An OSN offers a unique opportunity for studying and understanding social interaction and communication among far larger populations now more than ever before. Recently, OSNs have received considerable attention as a possible tool to track a pandemic because they can provide an almost real-time surveillance system at a less costly rate than traditional surveillance systems. A systematic literature search for studies with the primary aim of using OSN to detect and track a pandemic was conducted. We conducted an electronic literature search for eligible English articles published between 2004 and 2015 using PUBMED, IEEExplore, ACM Digital Library, Google Scholar, and Web of Science. First, the articles were screened on the basis of titles and abstracts. Second, the full texts were reviewed. All included studies were subjected to quality assessment. OSNs have rich information that can be utilized to develop an almost real-time pandemic surveillance system. The outcomes of OSN surveillance systems have demonstrated high correlations with the findings of official surveillance systems. However, the limitation in using OSN to track pandemic is in collecting representative data with sufficient population coverage. This challenge is related to the characteristics of OSN data. The data are dynamic, large-sized, and unstructured, thus requiring advanced algorithms and computational linguistics. OSN data contain significant information that can be used to track a pandemic. Different from traditional surveys and clinical reports, in which the data collection process is time consuming at costly rates, OSN data can be collected almost in real time at a cheaper cost. Additionally, the geographical and temporal information can provide exploratory analysis of spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious disease spread. However, on one hand, an OSN-based surveillance system requires comprehensive adoption, enhanced geographical identification system, and advanced algorithms and computational linguistics to eliminate its limitations and challenges. On the other hand, OSN is probably to never replace traditional surveillance, but it can offer complementary data that can work best when integrated with traditional data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A DNA Vaccine That Targets Hemagglutinin to Antigen-Presenting Cells Protects Mice against H7 Influenza

PubMed Central

Andersen, Tor Kristian; Zhou, Fan; Cox, Rebecca; Bogen, Bjarne

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Zoonotic influenza H7 viral infections have a case fatality rate of about 40%. Currently, no or limited human to human spread has occurred, but we may be facing a severe pandemic threat if the virus acquires the ability to transmit between humans. Novel vaccines that can be rapidly produced for global distribution are urgently needed, and DNA vaccines may be the only type of vaccine that allows for the speed necessary to quench an emerging pandemic. Here, we constructed DNA vaccines encoding the hemagglutinin (HA) from influenza A/chicken/Italy/13474/99 (H7N1). In order to increase the efficacy of DNA vaccination, HA was targeted to either major histocompatibility complex class II molecules or chemokine receptors 1, 3, and 5 (CCR1/3/5) that are expressed on antigen-presenting cells (APC). A single DNA vaccination with APC-targeted HA significantly increased antibody levels in sera compared to nontargeted control vaccines. The antibodies were confirmed neutralizing in an H7 pseudotype-based neutralization assay. Furthermore, the APC-targeted vaccines increased the levels of antigen-specific cytotoxic T cells, and a single DNA vaccination could confer protection against a lethal challenge with influenza A/turkey/Italy/3889/1999 (H7N1) in mice. In conclusion, we have developed a vaccine that rapidly could contribute protection against a pandemic threat from avian influenza. IMPORTANCE Highly pathogenic avian influenza H7 constitute a pandemic threat that can cause severe illness and death in infected individuals. Vaccination is the main method of prophylaxis against influenza, but current vaccine strategies fall short in a pandemic situation due to a prolonged production time and insufficient production capabilities. In contrast, a DNA vaccine can be rapidly produced and deployed to prevent the potential escalation of a highly pathogenic influenza pandemic. We here demonstrate that a single DNA delivery of hemagglutinin from an H7 influenza could mediate full protection against a lethal challenge with H7N1 influenza in mice. Vaccine efficacy was contingent on targeting of the secreted vaccine protein to antigen-presenting cells. PMID:28931687

Resilience Training for Hospital Workers in Anticipation of an Influenza Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aiello, Andria; Khayeri, Michelle Young-Eun; Raja, Shreyshree; Peladeau, Nathalie; Romano, Donna; Leszcz, Molyn; Maunder, Robert G.; Rose, Marci; Adam, Mary Anne; Pain, Clare; Moore, Andrea; Savage, Diane; Schulman, Rabbi Bernard

2011-01-01

Background: Well before the H1N1 influenza, health care organizations worldwide prepared for a pandemic of unpredictable impact. Planners anticipated the possibility of a pandemic involving high mortality, high health care demands, rates of absenteeism rising up to 20-30% among health care workers, rationing of health care, and extraordinary…

Managing a Bird Flu Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stover, Del

2006-01-01

Concern about a possible bird flu pandemic has grown in the medical community with the spread of the avian flu virus around the globe. Health officials say there is no immediate threat but add that an influenza pandemic occurs every 30 to 40 years, and prudence demands planning now. That planning will increasingly involve local school officials,…

Infection control measures on ships and in ports during the early stage of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

PubMed

Schlaich, Clara; Gau, Bettina; Cohen, Nicole J; Kojima, Kazunobu; Marano, Nina; Menucci, Daniel

2012-01-01

Shipping companies were surveyed to evaluate the effect of public health measures during the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic of 2009 on ship and port operations. Of 31 companies that operated 960 cruise, cargo, and other ships, 32% experienced health-screening measures by port health authorities. Approximately a quarter of ports (26%) performed screening at embarkation and 77% of shipping companies changed procedures during the early stage of the pandemic. Four companies reported outbreaks of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 on ships, which were ultimately stopped through infection control practices. Public health measures did not interfere substantially with port and ship operations with the exception of some port authorities that delayed embarking and disembarking procedures in a few ships. However, in the shipping companies' experience, measures were inconsistent between port health authorities. Access to antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccine was not provided in all ports. Current guidelines on medical care, hygiene, and emergency procedures on ships need to address pandemic influenza preparedness in future revisions.

Public health intelligence and the detection of potential pandemics.

PubMed

French, Martin; Mykhalovskiy, Eric

2013-02-01

This article considers contemporary developments in public health intelligence (PHI), especially their focus on health events of pandemic potential. It argues that the sociological study of PHI can yield important insights for the sociology of pandemics. PHI aims to detect health events as (or even before) they unfold. Whilst its apparatuses envelope traditional public health activities, such as epidemiological surveillance, they increasingly extend to non-traditional public health activities such as data-mining in electronically mediated social networks. With a focus on non-traditional PHI activities, the article first situates the study of PHI in relation to the sociology of public health. It then discusses the conceptualisation and actualisation of pandemics, reflecting on how public health professionals and organisations must equip themselves with diverse allies in order to realise the claims they make about pandemic phenomena. Finally, using the analytic tools of actor-network theory, sites for future empirical research that can contribute to the sociology of pandemics are suggested. © 2012 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2012 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in swine in Mexico

PubMed Central

Mena, Ignacio; Nelson, Martha I; Quezada-Monroy, Francisco; Dutta, Jayeeta; Cortes-Fernández, Refugio; Lara-Puente, J Horacio; Castro-Peralta, Felipa; Cunha, Luis F; Trovão, Nídia S; Lozano-Dubernard, Bernardo; Rambaut, Andrew; van Bakel, Harm; García-Sastre, Adolfo

2016-01-01

Asia is considered an important source of influenza A virus (IAV) pandemics, owing to large, diverse viral reservoirs in poultry and swine. However, the zoonotic origins of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic virus (pdmH1N1) remain unclear, due to conflicting evidence from swine and humans. There is strong evidence that the first human outbreak of pdmH1N1 occurred in Mexico in early 2009. However, no related swine viruses have been detected in Mexico or any part of the Americas, and to date the most closely related ancestor viruses were identified in Asian swine. Here, we use 58 new whole-genome sequences from IAVs collected in Mexican swine to establish that the swine virus responsible for the 2009 pandemic evolved in central Mexico. This finding highlights how the 2009 pandemic arose from a region not considered a pandemic risk, owing to an expansion of IAV diversity in swine resulting from long-distance live swine trade. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16777.001 PMID:27350259

Similarity of currently circulating H1N1 virus with the 2009 pandemic clone: viability of an imminent pandemic.

PubMed

Banerjee, Rachana; Roy, Ayan; Das, Santasabuj; Basak, Surajit

2015-06-01

The first influenza pandemic in the 21st century commenced in March, 2009 causing nearly 300,000 deaths globally within the first year of the pandemic. In late 2013 and in early 2014, there was gradual increase in the reported case of H1N1 infection and according to World Health Organization (WHO) report, influenza activity increased in several areas of the Southern Hemisphere and was dominated by the H1N1 pandemic strain of 2009. In the present study, a comprehensive comparison of the global amino acid composition and the structural features of all HA gene sequences of H1N1, available in the Flu Database (NCBI), from 1918 to December, 2014 has been performed to trace out the possibility of a further H1N1 pandemic in near future. The results suggest that the increased potential to enhance pathogenicity for the H1N1 samples of 2013 (latter part) and 2014 could lead to a more severe outbreak in the near future. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccination in children: a UK perspective.

PubMed

de Whalley, Philip C S; Pollard, Andrew J

2013-03-01

Pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was common in the UK in 2009 and children were particularly vulnerable. Most cases were mild or subclinical, but there was significant mortality, predominantly in those with pre-existing disease. Despite the rapid development of monovalent pandemic vaccines, and the fast-tracked approval process, these products were not available for large-scale use until the end of the second wave of infection. Vaccine uptake was relatively low, both among children and health-care workers. The monovalent pandemic vaccines and the 2010/2011 trivalent seasonal influenza vaccines were immunogenic and effective, and they probably reduced the impact of the third wave of infection. Vaccines containing novel adjuvants enabled antigen sparing, but safety concerns could limit the future use of these adjuvanted influenza vaccines in children. Public perceptions that the threat of the pandemic was exaggerated by the authorities, and concerns about vaccine safety, might prompt an inadequate response to the next influenza pandemic, potentially compromising public health. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health © 2012 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

Human mobility in an emerging epidemic: a key aspect for response planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poletto, Chiara; Bajardi, Paolo; Colizza, Vittoria; Ramasco, Jose J.; Tizzoni, Michele; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-03-01

Human mobility and interactions represent key ingredients in the spreading dynamics of an infectious disease. The flows of traveling people form a network characterized by complex features, such as strong topological and traffic heterogeneities, that unfolds at different temporal and spatial scales, from short ranges to the global scale. Computational models can be developed that integrate detailed network structures based on demographic and mobility data, in order to simulate the spatial evolution of an epidemic. Focusing on the recent A(H1N1) influenza pandemic as a paradigmatic example, these approaches allow the assessment of the interplay between individual mobility and epidemic dynamics, quantifying the effects of travel restrictions in delaying the epidemic spread and the role of mobility as an additional source of information for the understanding of the early outbreak.

Simulation of a broadband nano-biosensor based on an onion-like quantum dot-quantum well structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Absalan, H; SalmanOgli, A; Rostami, R

The fluorescence resonance energy transfer is studied between modified quantum-dots and quantum-wells used as a donor and an acceptor. Because of the unique properties of quantum dots, including diverse surface modification flexibility, bio-compatibility, high quantum yields and wide absorption, their use as nano-biosensors and bio-markers used in diagnosis of cancer is suggested. The fluorescence resonance energy transfer is simulated in a quantum dot-quantum well system, where the energy can flow from donor to acceptor. If the energy transfer can be either turned on or off by a specific interaction, such as interaction with any dyes, a molecular binding event ormore » a cleavage reaction, a sensor can be designed (under assumption that the healthy cells have a known effect or unyielding effect on output parameters while cancerous cells, due to their pandemic optical properties, can impact the fluorescence resonance energy transfer parameters). The developed nano-biosensor can operate in a wide range of wavelengths (310 - 760 nm). (laser applications in biology and medicine)« less

Design and Characterization of a Computationally Optimized Broadly Reactive Hemagglutinin Vaccine for H1N1 Influenza Viruses

PubMed Central

Carter, Donald M.; Darby, Christopher A.; Lefoley, Bradford C.; Crevar, Corey J.; Alefantis, Timothy; Oomen, Raymond; Anderson, Stephen F.; Strugnell, Tod; Cortés-Garcia, Guadalupe; Vogel, Thorsten U.; Parrington, Mark; Kleanthous, Harold

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT One of the challenges of developing influenza A vaccines is the diversity of antigenically distinct isolates. Previously, a novel hemagglutinin (HA) for H5N1 influenza was derived from a methodology termed computationally optimized broadly reactive antigen (COBRA). This COBRA HA elicited a broad antibody response against H5N1 isolates from different clades. We now report the development and characterization of a COBRA-based vaccine for both seasonal and pandemic H1N1 influenza virus isolates. Nine prototype H1N1 COBRA HA proteins were developed and tested in mice using a virus-like particle (VLP) format for the elicitation of broadly reactive, functional antibody responses and protection against viral challenge. These candidates were designed to recognize H1N1 viruses isolated within the last 30 years. In addition, several COBRA candidates were designed based on sequences of H1N1 viruses spanning the past 100 years, including modern pandemic H1N1 isolates. Four of the 9 H1N1 COBRA HA proteins (X1, X3, X6, and P1) had the broadest hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) activity against a panel of 17 H1N1 viruses. These vaccines were used in cocktails or prime-boost combinations. The most effective regimens that both elicited the broadest HAI response and protected mice against a pandemic H1N1 challenge were vaccines that contained the P1 COBRA VLP and either the X3 or X6 COBRA VLP vaccine. These mice had little or no detectable viral replication, comparable to that observed with a matched licensed vaccine. This is the first report describing a COBRA-based HA vaccine strategy that elicits a universal, broadly reactive, protective response against seasonal and pandemic H1N1 isolates. IMPORTANCE Universal influenza vaccine approaches have the potential to be paradigm shifting for the influenza vaccine field, with the goal of replacing the current standard of care with broadly cross-protective vaccines. We have used COBRA technology to develop an HA head-based strategy that elicits antibodies against many H1 strains that have undergone genetic drift and has potential as a “subtype universal” vaccine. Nine HA COBRA candidates were developed, and these vaccines were used alone, in cocktails or in prime-boost combinations. The most effective regimens elicited the broadest hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) response against a panel of H1N1 viruses isolated over the past 100 years. This is the first report describing a COBRA-based HA vaccine strategy that elicits a broadly reactive response against seasonal and pandemic H1N1 isolates. PMID:26912624

Methodology: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Ornelas, Joe; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Devereaux, Asha V; Kissoon, Niranjan; Livinski, Alicia; Christian, Michael D

2014-10-01

Natural disasters, industrial accidents, terrorism attacks, and pandemics all have the capacity to result in large numbers of critically ill or injured patients. This supplement provides suggestions for all those involved in a disaster or pandemic with multiple critically ill patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, professional societies, and public health or government officials. The field of disaster medicine does not have the required body of evidence needed to undergo a traditional guideline development process. In result, consensus statement-development methodology was used to capture the highest-caliber expert opinion in a structured, scientific approach. Task Force Executive Committee members identified core topic areas regarding the provision of care to critically ill or injured patients from pandemics or disasters and subsequently assembled an international panel for each identified area. International disaster medicine experts were brought together to identify key questions (in a population, intervention, comparator, outcome [PICO]-based format) within each of the core topic areas. Comprehensive literature searches were then conducted to identify studies upon which evidence-based recommendations could be made. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions that are presented in this supplement using a modified Delphi process. A total of 315 suggestions were drafted across all topic groups. After two rounds of a Delphi consensus-development process, 267 suggestions were chosen by the panel to include in the document and published in a total of 12 manuscripts composing the core chapters of this supplement. Draft manuscripts were prepared by the topic editor and members of the working groups for each of the topics, producing a total of 11 papers. Once the preliminary drafts were received, the Executive Committee (Writing Committee) then met to review, edit, and promote alignment of all of the primary drafts of the manuscripts prepared by the topic editors and their groups. The topic editors then revised their manuscripts based on the Executive Committee's edits and comments. The Writing Committee subsequently reviewed the updated drafts and prepared the final manuscripts for submission to the Guidelines Oversight Committee (GOC). The manuscripts subsequently underwent review by the GOC, including external review as well as peer review for the journal publication. The Writing Committee received the feedback from the reviewers and modified the manuscripts as required. Based on a robust and transparent process, this project used rigorous methodology to produce clinically relevant, trustworthy consensus statements, with the aim to provide needed guidance on treatment and procedures for practitioners, hospital administrators, and public health and government officials when addressing the care of critically ill or injured patients in disasters or pandemics.

Characteristics of atopic children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection: pandemic H1N1 influenza reveals 'occult' asthma of childhood.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Shunji; Hirano, Reiji; Hashimoto, Kunio; Haneda, Yasuhiro; Shirabe, Komei; Ichiyama, Takashi

2011-02-01

The number of human cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection has increased in Japan since April 2009, as it has worldwide. This virus is widespread in the Yamaguchi prefecture in western Japan, where most infected children exhibited respiratory symptoms. Bronchial asthma is thought to be one of the risk factors that exacerbate respiratory symptoms of pandemic H1N1-infected patients, but the pathogenesis remains unclear. We retrospectively investigated the records of 33 children with pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection who were admitted to our hospital between October and December 2009 and analyzed their clinical features. The percentage of children with asthma attack, with or without abnormal findings on chest radiographs (pneumonia, atelectasis, etc.), caused by pandemic H1N1 influenza infection was significantly higher than that of children with asthma attack and 2008-2009 seasonal influenza infection. Of the 33 children in our study, 22 (66.7%) experienced an asthma attack. Among these children, 20 (90.9%) did not receive long-term management for bronchial asthma, whereas 7 (31.8%) were not diagnosed with bronchial asthma and had experienced their first asthma attack. However, the severity of the attack did not correlate with the severity of the pulmonary complications of pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection. The pandemic H1N1 influenza virus greatly increases the risk of lower respiratory tract complications such as asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis, when compared to the seasonal influenza virus. Furthermore, our results suggest that pandemic H1N1 influenza viral infection can easily induce a severe asthma attack, pneumonia, and atelectasis in atopic children without any history of either an asthma attack or asthma treatment. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

The 2015 global production capacity of seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine.

PubMed

McLean, Kenneth A; Goldin, Shoshanna; Nannei, Claudia; Sparrow, Erin; Torelli, Guido

2016-10-26

A global shortage and inequitable access to influenza vaccines has been cause for concern for developing countries who face dire consequences in the event of a pandemic. The Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP) was launched in 2006 to increase global capacity for influenza vaccine production to address these concerns. It is widely recognized that well-developed infrastructure to produce seasonal influenza vaccines leads to increased capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccines. This article summarizes the results of a survey administered to 44 manufacturers to assess their production capacity for seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccine production. When the GAP was launched in 2006, global production capacity for seasonal and pandemic vaccines was estimated to be 500million and 1.5billion doses respectively. Since 2006 there has been a significant increase in capacity, with the 2013 survey estimating global capacity at 1.5billion seasonal and 6.2billion pandemic doses. Results of the current survey showed that global seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity has decreased since 2013 from 1.504billion doses to 1.467billion doses. However, notwithstanding the overall global decrease in seasonal vaccine capacity there were notable positive changes in the distribution of production capacity with increases noted in South East Asia (SEAR) and the Western Pacific (WPR) regions, albeit on a small scale. Despite a decrease in seasonal capacity, there has been a global increase of pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity from 6.2 billion doses in 2013 to 6.4 billion doses in 2015. This growth can be attributed to a shift towards more quadrivalent vaccine production and also to increased use of adjuvants. Pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity is at its highest recorded levels however challenges remain in maintaining this capacity and in ensuring access in the event of a pandemic to underserved regions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mitigation Approaches to Combat the Flu Pandemic

PubMed Central

Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

2009-01-01

Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15th June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels. PMID:20300402

Differential Immune Profiles in Two Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Waves at Pandemic Epicenter.

PubMed

Arriaga-Pizano, Lourdes; Ferat-Osorio, Eduardo; Rodríguez-Abrego, Gabriela; Mancilla-Herrera, Ismael; Domínguez-Cerezo, Esteban; Valero-Pacheco, Nuriban; Pérez-Toledo, Marisol; Lozano-Patiño, Fernando; Laredo-Sánchez, Fernando; Malagón-Rangel, José; Nellen-Hummel, Haiko; González-Bonilla, César; Arteaga-Troncoso, Gabriel; Cérbulo-Vázquez, Arturo; Pastelin-Palacios, Rodolfo; Klenerman, Paul; Isibasi, Armando; López-Macías, Constantino

2015-11-01

Severe influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 virus infection cases are characterized by sustained immune activation during influenza pandemics. Seasonal flu data suggest that immune mediators could be modified by wave-related changes. Our aim was to determine the behavior of soluble and cell-related mediators in two waves at the epicenter of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Leukocyte surface activation markers were studied in serum from peripheral blood samples, collected from the 1(st) (April-May, 2009) and 2(nd) (October 2009-February 2010) pandemic waves. Patients with confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm2009 virus infection (H1N1), influenza-like illness (ILI) or healthy donors (H) were analyzed. Serum IL-6, IL-4 and IL-10 levels were elevated in H1N1 patients from the 2(nd) pandemic wave. Additionally, the frequency of helper and cytotoxic T cells was reduced during the 1(st) wave, whereas CD69 expression in helper T cells was increased in the 2(nd) wave for both H1N1 and ILI patients. In contrast, CD62L expression in granulocytes from the ILI group was increased in both waves but in monocytes only in the 2(nd) wave. Triggering Receptor Expressed on Myeloid cells (TREM)-1 expression was elevated only in H1N1 patients at the 1(st) wave. Our results show that during the 2009 influenza pandemic a T cell activation phenotype is observed in a wave-dependent fashion, with an expanded activation in the 2(nd) wave, compared to the 1(st) wave. Conversely, granulocyte and monocyte activation is infection-dependent. This evidence collected at the pandemic epicenter in 2009 could help us understand the differences in the underlying cellular mechanisms that drive the wave-related immune profile behaviors that occur against influenza viruses during pandemics. Copyright © 2015 IMSS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mitigation approaches to combat the flu pandemic.

PubMed

Chawla, Raman; Sharma, Rakesh Kumar; Madaan, Deepali; Dubey, Neha; Arora, Rajesh; Goel, Rajeev; Singh, Shefali; Kaushik, Vinod; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Chabbra, Vivek; Bhardwaj, Janak Raj

2009-07-01

Management of flu pandemic is a perpetual challenge for the medical fraternity since time immemorial. Animal to human transmission has been observed thrice in the last century within an average range of 11-39 years of antigenic recycling. The recent outbreak of influenza A (H1N1, also termed as swine flu), first reported in Mexico on April 26, 2009, occurred in the forty first year since last reported flu pandemic (July 1968). Within less than 50 days, it has assumed pandemic proportions (phase VI) affecting over 76 countries with 163 deaths/35,928 cases (as on 15(th) June 2009). It indicated the re-emergence of genetically reassorted virus having strains endemic to humans, swine and avian (H5N1). The World Health Organisation (WHO) member states have already pulled up their socks and geared up to combat such criticalities. Earlier outbreaks of avian flu (H5N1) in different countries led WHO to develop pandemic preparedness strategies with national/regional plans on pandemic preparedness. Numerous factors related to climatic conditions, socio-economic strata, governance and sharing of information/logistics at all levels have been considered critical indicators in monitoring the dynamics of escalation towards a pandemic situation.The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Government of India, with the active cooperation of UN agencies and other stakeholders/experts has formulated a concept paper on role of nonhealth service providers during pandemics in April 2008 and released national guidelines - management of biological disasters in July 2008. These guidelines enumerate that the success of medical management endeavors like pharmaceutical (anti-viral Oseltamivir and Zanamivir therapies), nonpharmaceutical interventions and vaccination development etc., largely depends on level of resistance offered by mutagenic viral strain and rationale use of pharmaco therapeutic interventions. This article describes the mitigation approach to combat flu pandemic with its effective implementation at national, state and local levels.

Content analysis of press coverage during the H1N1 influenza pandemic in Germany 2009-2010.

PubMed

Husemann, Sabine; Fischer, Florian

2015-04-15

The H1N1 influenza pandemic occurred in Germany between April 2009 and August 2010. Pandemics often lead to uncertainty amongst the public and so risk communication on health-related issues is one of the key areas of action for health authorities and other healthcare institutions. The mass media may contribute to risk communication, so this study analysed press coverage during the H1N1 pandemic in Germany. A comprehensive analysis of the press coverage during the H1N1 pandemic was conducted in two steps. First, a temporal analysis was carried out of newspaper articles over the entire course of the pandemic, a total of 15,353 articles. The newspaper articles were obtained from the database Nexis. The total number of articles about the influenza pandemic during each individual week was plotted against the number of incident influenza cases during that week. Second, a quantitative content analysis of 140 newspaper articles from selected dates was conducted. This study indicates that media awareness seems to be strongly related to the actual situation in the pandemic, because changes in the number of infected people were associated with nearly identical changes in the number of newspaper articles. Few articles contained information on the agent of the influenza or support measures. Information on vaccination was included in 32.9% of all articles. Almost half of the articles (48.6%) used case reports. Fear appeals were used in only 10.7% of the newspaper articles; 32.9% of the articles contained the message characteristic "self-efficacy". The newspaper articles that were analysed in the content analysis included different information and message characteristics. The extent of information provided differed during the pandemic. As current research indicates, the use of message characteristics such as fear appeals and self-efficacy, which were also included in the analysed newspaper articles, can help to make health messages effective.

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention.

PubMed

Boyd, Matt; Baker, Michael G; Mansoor, Osman D; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Wilson, Nick

2017-01-01

Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, "Scenario A"), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of "Scenario A", or 2.75% of the country's population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for "Scenario A" times three for 26 weeks of border closure-but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). This "proof-of-concept" work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective.

Real-time numerical forecast of global epidemic spreading: case study of 2009 A/H1N1pdm.

PubMed

Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, José J; Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Perra, Nicola; Colizza, Vittoria; Vespignani, Alessandro

2012-12-13

Mathematical and computational models for infectious diseases are increasingly used to support public-health decisions; however, their reliability is currently under debate. Real-time forecasts of epidemic spread using data-driven models have been hindered by the technical challenges posed by parameter estimation and validation. Data gathered for the 2009 H1N1 influenza crisis represent an unprecedented opportunity to validate real-time model predictions and define the main success criteria for different approaches. We used the Global Epidemic and Mobility Model to generate stochastic simulations of epidemic spread worldwide, yielding (among other measures) the incidence and seeding events at a daily resolution for 3,362 subpopulations in 220 countries. Using a Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood analysis, the model provided an estimate of the seasonal transmission potential during the early phase of the H1N1 pandemic and generated ensemble forecasts for the activity peaks in the northern hemisphere in the fall/winter wave. These results were validated against the real-life surveillance data collected in 48 countries, and their robustness assessed by focusing on 1) the peak timing of the pandemic; 2) the level of spatial resolution allowed by the model; and 3) the clinical attack rate and the effectiveness of the vaccine. In addition, we studied the effect of data incompleteness on the prediction reliability. Real-time predictions of the peak timing are found to be in good agreement with the empirical data, showing strong robustness to data that may not be accessible in real time (such as pre-exposure immunity and adherence to vaccination campaigns), but that affect the predictions for the attack rates. The timing and spatial unfolding of the pandemic are critically sensitive to the level of mobility data integrated into the model. Our results show that large-scale models can be used to provide valuable real-time forecasts of influenza spreading, but they require high-performance computing. The quality of the forecast depends on the level of data integration, thus stressing the need for high-quality data in population-based models, and of progressive updates of validated available empirical knowledge to inform these models.

[Predicting spread of new pandemic swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) in local mid-size city: evaluation of hospital bed shortage and effectiveness of vaccination].

PubMed

Takeuchi, Shouhei; Kuroda, Yoshiki

2010-01-01

On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan. We used a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model to calculate the number of infected people and hospital bed shortage during this pandemic. In this model, available medical resources were investigated on the basis of four vaccination scenarios. Our model showed that it would take a further six months for the pandemic to peak than was predicted by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Without vaccination, at the peak of the pandemic 23,689 out of 400,000 people would be infected and the hospital bed shortage would reach 7,349 in total. We suggest that mathematical models are strong tools to predict the spread of infectious diseases. According to our model, it is possible to prevent hospital bed shortage by vaccination.

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of pre-existing immunity in older populations

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Miller, Mark A.; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo

2010-01-01

Background While the mortality burden of the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic has been carefully quantified in the US, Japan, and European countries, little is known about the pandemic experience elsewhere. Here, we compiled extensive archival records to quantify the pandemic mortality patterns in two Mexican cities, Mexico City and Toluca. Methods We applied seasonal excess mortality models to age-specific respiratory mortality rates for 1915–1920 and quantified the reproduction number from daily data. Results We identified 3 pandemic waves in Mexico City in spring 1918, fall 1918, and winter 1920, characterized by unusual excess mortality in 25–44 years old. Toluca experienced 2-fold higher excess mortality rates than Mexico City, but did not have a substantial 3rd wave. All age groups including those over 65 years experienced excess mortality during 1918–20. Reproduction number estimates were below 2.5 assuming a 3-day generation interval. Conclusion Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the US and Europe. In contrast to the US and Europe, there was no mortality sparing in Mexican seniors, highlighting potential geographical differences in pre-existing immunity to the 1918 virus. We discuss the relevance of our findings to the 2009 pandemic mortality patterns. PMID:20594109

Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives.

PubMed

Silva, Diego S; Gibson, Jennifer L; Robertson, Ann; Bensimon, Cécile M; Sahni, Sachin; Maunula, Laena; Smith, Maxwell J

2012-03-26

Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans.

Oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza a (H1N1) 2009 viruses in Spain.

PubMed

Ledesma, Juan; Vicente, Diego; Pozo, Francisco; Cilla, Gustavo; Castro, Sonia Pérez; Fernández, Jonathan Suárez; Ruiz, Mercedes Pérez; Navarro, José María; Galán, Juan Carlos; Fernández, Mirian; Reina, Jordi; Larrauri, Amparo; Cuevas, María Teresa; Casas, Inmaculada; Breña, Pilar Pérez

2011-07-01

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus appeared in Spain on April 25, 2009 for the first time. This new virus was adamantane-resistant but it was sensitive to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir. To detect oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses by the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System (SISS) and a possible spread of oseltamivir-resistant viruses in Spain since starting of the pandemic situation. A total of 1229 respiratory samples taken from 413 severe and 766 non-severe patients with confirmed viral detection of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses from different Spanish regions were analyzed for the specific detection of the H275Y mutation in NA between April 2009 and May 2010. H275Y NA substitution was found in 8 patients infected with pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses collected in November and December 2009 and in January 2010. All oseltamivir-resistant viruses were detected in severe patients (8/413, 1.93%) who previously received treatment with oseltamivir. Six of these patients were immunocompromised. In Spain, the number of oseltamivir-resistant pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 viruses is until now very low. No evidence for any spread of oseltamivir-resistant H1N1 viruses is achieved in our Country. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influenza Pandemics and Tuberculosis Mortality in 1889 and 1918: Analysis of Historical Data from Switzerland

PubMed Central

Zürcher, Kathrin; Zwahlen, Marcel; Ballif, Marie; Rieder, Hans L.; Egger, Matthias

2016-01-01

Background Tuberculosis (TB) mortality declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 200 years, but peaked during the Russian (1889) and the Spanish (1918) influenza pandemics. We studied the impact of these two pandemics on TB mortality. Methods We retrieved historic data from mortality registers for the city of Bern and countrywide for Switzerland. We used Poisson regression models to quantify the excess pulmonary TB (PTB) mortality attributable to influenza. Results Yearly PTB mortality rates increased during both influenza pandemics. Monthly influenza and PTB mortality rates peaked during winter and early spring. In Bern, for an increase of 100 influenza deaths (per 100,000 population) monthly PTB mortality rates increased by a factor of 1.5 (95%Cl 1.4–1.6, p<0.001) during the Russian, and 3.6 (95%Cl 0.7–18.0, p = 0.13) during the Spanish pandemic. Nationally, the factor was 2.0 (95%Cl 1.8–2.2, p<0.001) and 1.5 (95%Cl 1.1–1.9, p = 0.004), respectively. We did not observe any excess cancer or extrapulmonary TB mortality (as a negative control) during the influenza pandemics. Conclusions We demonstrate excess PTB mortality during historic influenza pandemics in Switzerland, which supports a role for influenza vaccination in PTB patients in high TB incidence countries. PMID:27706149

Tuning in and catching on? Examining the relationship between pandemic communication and awareness and knowledge of MERS in the USA.

PubMed

Lin, Leesa; McCloud, Rachel F; Bigman, Cabral A; Viswanath, Kasisomayajula

2017-06-01

Large-scale influenza outbreaks over the last decade, such as SARS and H1N1, have brought to global attention the importance of emergency risk communication and prompted the international community to develop communication responses. Since pandemic outbreaks are relatively infrequent, there is a dearth of evidence addressing the following questions: (i) Have the resources invested in strategic and routine communication for past pandemic outbreaks yielded public health preparedness benefits? (ii) Have past efforts sensitized people to pay attention to new pandemic threats? The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) that was followed closely by major media outlets in the USA provides an opportunity to examine the relationship between exposure to public communication about epidemics and public awareness and knowledge about new risks. In December, 2013, we surveyed a nationally representative sample of 627 American adults and examined the associations between people's awareness to prior pandemics and their awareness of and knowledge about MERS. Awareness of prior pandemics was significantly associated with awareness and knowledge of MERS. The most common sources from which people first heard about MERS were also identified. Communication inequalities were observed between racial/ethnic and socioeconomic positions, suggesting a need for more effective pandemic communication. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Two Years after Pandemic Influenza A/2009/H1N1: What Have We Learned?

PubMed Central

Cheng, Vincent C. C.; To, Kelvin K. W.; Tse, Herman; Hung, Ivan F. N.

2012-01-01

Summary: The world had been anticipating another influenza pandemic since the last one in 1968. The pandemic influenza A H1N1 2009 virus (A/2009/H1N1) finally arrived, causing the first pandemic influenza of the new millennium, which has affected over 214 countries and caused over 18,449 deaths. Because of the persistent threat from the A/H5N1 virus since 1997 and the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus in 2003, medical and scientific communities have been more prepared in mindset and infrastructure. This preparedness has allowed for rapid and effective research on the epidemiological, clinical, pathological, immunological, virological, and other basic scientific aspects of the disease, with impacts on its control. A PubMed search using the keywords “pandemic influenza virus H1N1 2009” yielded over 2,500 publications, which markedly exceeded the number published on previous pandemics. Only representative works with relevance to clinical microbiology and infectious diseases are reviewed in this article. A significant increase in the understanding of this virus and the disease within such a short amount of time has allowed for the timely development of diagnostic tests, treatments, and preventive measures. These findings could prove useful for future randomized controlled clinical trials and the epidemiological control of future pandemics. PMID:22491771

Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence

PubMed Central

Wever, Peter C; van Bergen, Leo

2014-01-01

The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1·2 million U.S. troops. With over 26 000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered “America's deadliest battle”. The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45 000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded “America's deadliest”. The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918. PMID:24975798

Yersinia pestis DNA from skeletal remains from the 6(th) century AD reveals insights into Justinianic Plague.

PubMed

Harbeck, Michaela; Seifert, Lisa; Hänsch, Stephanie; Wagner, David M; Birdsell, Dawn; Parise, Katy L; Wiechmann, Ingrid; Grupe, Gisela; Thomas, Astrid; Keim, Paul; Zöller, Lothar; Bramanti, Barbara; Riehm, Julia M; Scholz, Holger C

2013-01-01

Yersinia pestis, the etiologic agent of the disease plague, has been implicated in three historical pandemics. These include the third pandemic of the 19(th) and 20(th) centuries, during which plague was spread around the world, and the second pandemic of the 14(th)-17(th) centuries, which included the infamous epidemic known as the Black Death. Previous studies have confirmed that Y. pestis caused these two more recent pandemics. However, a highly spirited debate still continues as to whether Y. pestis caused the so-called Justinianic Plague of the 6(th)-8(th) centuries AD. By analyzing ancient DNA in two independent ancient DNA laboratories, we confirmed unambiguously the presence of Y. pestis DNA in human skeletal remains from an Early Medieval cemetery. In addition, we narrowed the phylogenetic position of the responsible strain down to major branch 0 on the Y. pestis phylogeny, specifically between nodes N03 and N05. Our findings confirm that Y. pestis was responsible for the Justinianic Plague, which should end the controversy regarding the etiology of this pandemic. The first genotype of a Y. pestis strain that caused the Late Antique plague provides important information about the history of the plague bacillus and suggests that the first pandemic also originated in Asia, similar to the other two plague pandemics.

Documents Related to the Flu Pandemic of 1918

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazzone, Raphael; Potter, Lee Ann

2006-01-01

This article discusses a worldwide epidemic--a pandemic--that appeared in the United Sates during the latter part of the summer of 1918. During 1918 and 1919, between 50 and 100 million people around the globe fell victim to a rapidly spreading and untreatable strain of influenza. The pandemic so severely affected the U.S. population that roughly…

Reflections on pandemics, past and present.

PubMed

Schuchat, Anne

2011-06-01

The author reflects on her personal experiences during the 2009 H1N1 influenza, acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) pandemics. The roles played by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention related to pregnancy-associated influenza during the 2009 pandemic are described. Risk communication principles are summarized and resources provided. Published by Mosby, Inc.

[Study on risk awareness and preparedness for pandemic flu among staff members from enterprises].

PubMed

Wu, Jiang; Lv, Min; Wang, Quan-yi; Dong, Zhen-ying; Yi, Qing; Zhang, Xiantao

2007-01-01

To evaluate the risk awareness and preparedness related to pandemic flu in China. Two groups of people, mainly employers and employees from enterprises, were covered in the survey, using quantitative (questionnaire) and qualitative (in-depth interview) methods. The employers and employees were from joint-ventured corporations, large state-owned corporations and private companies which were randomly selected from 7 major cities in China. (1) 82% of the people surveyed and interviewed had basic knowledge on pandemic flu. (2) 60% of the joint-ventured corporations had worked out or were working on their business continuity plan in the event of pandemic flu, compared to that of state-owned corporations and private companies that the figure was only 21% . (3) 67% of the joint-ventured corporations had informed their preparedness plan on pandemic flu to their employees, while that of the state-owned and private corporations, it was only 42 %. (4) About 70 % of the corporations was establishing policies for restricting travel to affected geographic areas (both domestic and international), evacuating the employees who working in or near the affected area when an outbreak began. (5) Nearly 60 % of the corporations thought annual flu vaccination was important and hence encouraging and tracking annual flu vaccination for employees. (6) 70% of the corporations paid high attention on providing sufficient and accessible supplies (e. g. hand - hygiene products, tissues and receptacles for their disposal) to control the epidemics in all business locations while nearly 76 % of the corporations were interested in purchasing commercial medical insurance. Joint-verntured corporation were doing better than domestic corporations in terms of risk awareness and preparedness on pandemic flu, suggesting that the domestic corporation should learn from them regarding on pandemic flu preparedness to limit the negative impact of pandemic flu.

Predictors of influenza vaccine uptake during the 2009/10 influenza A H1N1v ('swine flu') pandemic: Results from five national surveys in the United Kingdom.

PubMed

Han, You Kyung Julia; Michie, Susan; Potts, Henry W W; Rubin, G James

2016-03-01

To investigate reasons underlying the low uptake of the influenza A H1N1v vaccination in the UK during the 2009/10 pandemic. We analysed data from five national telephone surveys conducted in the UK during the latter stages of the pandemic to identify predictors of uptake amongst members of the public offered the vaccine by their primary care physician (n=1320). In addition to demographic variables, participants reported: reasons for declining the vaccination, levels of worry about the risk of catching swine flu, whether too much fuss was being made about the pandemic, whether they or a close friend or relative had had swine flu, how effective they felt the vaccine was, whether they had previously had a seasonal flu vaccination, how well prepared they felt the government was for a pandemic and how satisfied they were with information available about the pandemic. Most participants (n=734, 55.6%) reported being vaccinated against swine flu, compared to 396 who had not been vaccinated and were unlikely to be vaccinated in the future. The main reasons given for declining vaccination were concerns over the vaccine's safety, and being generally healthy. Controlling for demographic variables, risk factors for not being vaccinated were: being female, not having a long-standing infirmity or illness, not having been vaccinated against seasonal flu in previous years, feeling that too much fuss had been made about the pandemic and believing that the vaccine was ineffective. Interventions that target these factors may be effective in improving uptake in a future pandemic. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Variation of Pathogenic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Peru

PubMed Central

Gavilan, Ronnie G.; Zamudio, Maria L.; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

Vibrio parahaemolyticus is a foodborne pathogen that has become a public health concern at the global scale. The epidemiological significance of V. parahaemolyticus infections in Latin America received little attention until the winter of 1997 when cases related to the pandemic clone were detected in the region, changing the epidemic dynamics of this pathogen in Peru. With the aim to assess the impact of the arrival of the pandemic clone on local populations of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in Peru, we investigated the population genetics and genomic variation in a complete collection of non-pandemic strains recovered from clinical sources in Peru during the pre- and post-emergence periods of the pandemic clone. A total of 56 clinical strains isolated in Peru during the period 1994 to 2007, 13 strains from Chile and 20 strains from Asia were characterized by Multilocus Sequence Typing (MLST) and checked for the presence of Variable Genomic Regions (VGRs). The emergence of O3:K6 cases in Peru implied a drastic disruption of the seasonal dynamics of infections and a shift in the serotype dominance of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus. After the arrival of the pandemic clone, a great diversity of serovars not previously reported was detected in the country, which supports the introduction of additional populations cohabitating with the pandemic group. Moreover, the presence of genomic regions characteristic of the pandemic clone in other non-pandemic strains may represent early evidence of genetic transfer from the introduced population to the local communities. Finally, the results of this study stress the importance of population admixture, horizontal genetic transfer and homologous recombination as major events shaping the structure and diversity of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus. PMID:23696906

Avian flu pandemic - flight of the healthcare worker?

PubMed

Shabanowitz, Robert B; Reardon, Judith E

2009-12-01

One of the ethical issues identified in response to a possible pandemic is healthcare workers' duty to provide care during a communicable disease outbreak. Healthcare employees may be subject to a variety of work obligations under such conditions. Questions of duty to treat remain controversial, and debate continues as to the ethical articulation of a duty to treat. This study aimed to investigate opinions from healthcare workers themselves on the perceived duty to treat, and how they might respond to a severe avian flu pandemic. Using system-wide e-mail, we surveyed employees at our rural tertiary/quaternary care health system regarding their knowledge of our institution's pandemic planning policy and their willingness to work in the event of a virulent avian pandemic. Results (N=908) show that employees felt a responsibility for"duty to care." Over 60% disagreed that it was ethical to abandon the workplace during a pandemic. However, opinions also stated that employees wanted autonomy to decide whether or not to work (65%). When asked about volunteering, 79% would agree to volunteer, given some incentives and protective options, the most salient being protective equipment (with relative training for use) and infectious disease training. Our research demonstrated that the healthcare workers a tour institution voiced an earnest willingness to work in the event of an avian flu pandemic, if provided with the necessary input, protections and tools, and education. The use of an electronic methodology for dissemination of surveys allowed the low-cost solicitation of information from a vast proportion of the workforce with ease, providing the institutional ethics committee with the empirical data needed to articulate more meaningful,thoughtful, and robust suggestions for ethical pandemic planning.

[An influenza pandemic in Russia as a part of a global spread of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2009-2011].

PubMed

Karpova, L S; Pelikh, M Iu; Stoliarov, K A; Popovtseva, N M; Stoliarova, T P

2012-01-01

The comparison of the first and second waves of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the world and Russia was performed on the basis of weekly reports of Regional offices for Europe and on the data of the Federal Center for Influenza on a weekly incidence of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections, hospitalization, and mortality from the influenza in the age groups of population in 49 cities of the Russian Federation. The first wave of the pandemic, which continued in the countries of the world all summer, was of mixed etiology and, in spite of the availability of imported cases, has not caused a steep increase in Russia. The second wave of the pandemic in the countries of the Southern hemisphere was less intense. In the countries of the Northern hemisphere (in autumn 2009), on the contrary, it was more intensive, which was associated with different seasonality of influenza in these hemispheres. In Russia, the second wave (2011) was of a lesser intensity as compared to the first with respect to the duration in the country and in urban areas, the incidence in the entire population, including schoolchildren and adults, the rate of hospitalization and case fatality rate reduction of laboratory-confirmed influenza infection. The duration of the last pandemic of 2009 was the same as in 1957 and 1968, and longer than in 1977. The morbidity was one-half less than in the pandemic of 1957 and 1968, and was approaching the pandemic 1977. At the same time, the incidence in children 3-6 and 7-14 years was higher than in previous pandemics.

Pandemic influenza planning, United States, 1978-2008.

PubMed

Iskander, John; Strikas, Raymond A; Gensheimer, Kathleen F; Cox, Nancy J; Redd, Stephen C

2013-06-01

During the past century, 4 influenza pandemics occurred. After the emergence of a novel influenza virus of swine origin in 1976, national, state, and local US public health authorities began planning efforts to respond to future pandemics. Several events have since stimulated progress in public health emergency planning: the 1997 avian influenza A(H5N1) outbreak in Hong Kong, China; the 2001 anthrax attacks in the United States; the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome; and the 2003 reemergence of influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in humans. We outline the evolution of US pandemic planning since the late 1970s, summarize planning accomplishments, and explain their ongoing importance. The public health community's response to the 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic demonstrated the value of planning and provided insights into improving future plans and response efforts. Preparedness planning will enhance the collective, multilevel response to future public health crises.

A study to identify winning strategies for the business community during the next pandemic.

PubMed

Spriggs, Martin

2013-01-01

This study examines the relationship between the healthcare system and the corporate sector to answer the following research question: how does the healthcare system best prepare small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza? Data were collected and collated through a literature review, electronic survey and semi-structured follow-up telephone interviews. The participants were businesses with membership in the Alberta Chambers of Commerce, a provincial lobby group in Alberta, Canada. The findings indicate strategies that were effective in minimising impact to the business community during the H1N1 pandemic and suggest areas for the business community to improve in preparation for the next pandemic influenza. Recommendations focus on establishing new links for communication between the business community and the healthcare sector and improving strategies to increase the resilience of small to medium-sized businesses for the next pandemic influenza.

Circulating avian influenza viruses closely related to the 1918 virus have pandemic potential

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Tokiko; Zhong, Gongxun; Russell, Colin A.; Nakajima, Noriko; Hatta, Masato; Hanson, Anthony; McBride, Ryan; Burke, David F.; Takahashi, Kenta; Fukuyama, Satoshi; Tomita, Yuriko; Maher, Eileen A.; Watanabe, Shinji; Imai, Masaki; Neumann, Gabriele; Hasegawa, Hideki; Paulson, James C.; Smith, Derek J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

2014-01-01

Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential. PMID:24922572

Pandemic influenza and critical infrastructure dependencies: possible impact on hospitals.

PubMed

Itzwerth, Ralf L; Macintyre, C Raina; Shah, Smita; Plant, Aileen J

2006-11-20

Hospitals will be particularly challenged when pandemic influenza spreads. Within the health sector in general, existing pandemic plans focus on health interventions to control outbreaks. The critical relationship between the health sector and other sectors is not well understood and addressed. Hospitals depend on critical infrastructure external to the organisation itself. Existing plans do not adequately consider the complexity and interdependency of systems upon which hospitals rely. The failure of one such system can trigger a failure of another, causing cascading breakdowns. Health is only one of the many systems that struggle at maximum capacity during "normal" times, as current business models operate with no or minimal "excess" staff and have become irreducible operations. This makes interconnected systems highly vulnerable to acute disruptions, such as a pandemic. Companies use continuity plans and highly regulated business continuity management to overcome process interruptions. This methodology can be applied to hospitals to minimise the impact of a pandemic.

Pandemic influenza: implications for occupational medicine

PubMed Central

Journeay, W Shane; Burnstein, Matthew D

2009-01-01

This article reviews the biological and occupational medicine literature related to H5N1 pandemic influenza and its impact on infection control, cost and business continuity in settings outside the health care community. The literature on H5N1 biology is reviewed including the treatment and infection control mechanisms as they pertain to occupational medicine. Planning activity for the potential arrival of pandemic avian influenza is growing rapidly. Much has been published on the molecular biology of H5N1 but there remains a paucity of literature on the occupational medicine impacts to organizations. This review summarizes some of the basic science surrounding H5N1 influenza and raises some key concerns in pandemic planning for the occupational medicine professional. Workplaces other than health care settings will be impacted greatly by an H5N1 pandemic and the occupational physician will play an essential role in corporate preparation, response, and business continuity strategies. PMID:19549302

'If you have a soul, you will volunteer at once': gendered expectations of duty to care during pandemics.

PubMed

Godderis, Rebecca; Rossiter, Kate

2013-02-01

Duty to care has been identified as a pressing ethical issue in contemporary discussions of pandemic preparedness; however, nuanced discussions of this complicated issue are relatively limited. This article presents historical data from the experience of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Brantford, Ontario in Canada, demonstrating that, in the face of an actual pandemic, the particular construction of duty to care as both moral and gendered meant that women were placed at a greater personal risk during this time. Given that women still dominate the front lines of healthcare work, we argue that it is critical for current stakeholders to reflect on how these historical patterns may be replicated in contemporary pandemic planning and response. © 2012 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness 2012 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Child Care and Preschool Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2006

2006-01-01

A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. A flu pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus emerges that people have little or no immunity to and for which there may be no vaccine. The disease spreads easily person-to-person and causes serious illness. It can sweep across the country and around the world very quickly. It is hard to predict when the…

Pandemic Flu: A Planning Guide for Educators

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

US Department of Education, 2006

2006-01-01

An influenza (flu) pandemic is a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new flu virus appears that can spread easily from person to person. Although it is difficult to predict when the next influenza pandemic will occur or how severe it will be, effects can be lessened if preparations are made ahead of time. The illness rates for both…

A Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Study: Use of Energetic Methods to Decontaminate Filtering Facepiece Respirators Contaminated with H1N1 Aerosols and Droplets (POSTPRINT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

have caused millions of deaths worldwide.1,2 After the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968, experts predicted that another pandemic was im- minent. Their...was propagated in embryonic chicken eggs followingstandard protocols.37 Virus titers were determined us- ing a tissue culture infectious dose assay

Pandemic influenza: is there a corporate duty to prepare?

PubMed

McMenamin, Joseph P

2009-01-01

This article considers whether in the wake of an influenza pandemic companies may be exposed to claims of legal liability for failing to provide employees with access to antiviral medications, as the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now encourages businesses to do. It begins by describing influenza and influenza pandemics. It then discusses the benefits and limitations of antiviral therapies and the recent creation of antiviral option programs. It concludes by considering whether claims may be brought on the theory that corporate leadership is under a duty to prepare for a pandemic by considering whether to provide access to antiviral protection for employees.

A qualitative study of pandemic influenza preparedness among small and medium-sized businesses in New York City.

PubMed

Burton, Deron C; Confield, Evan; Gasner, Mary Rose; Weisfuse, Isaac

2011-10-01

Small businesses need to engage in continuity planning to assure delivery of goods and services and to sustain the economy during an influenza pandemic. This is especially true in New York City, where 98 per cent of businesses have fewer than 100 employees. It was an objective therefore, to determine pandemic influenza business continuity practices and strategies suitable for small and medium-sized NYC businesses. The study design used focus groups, and the participants were owners and managers of businesses with fewer than 500 employees in New York City. The main outcome measures looked for were the degree of pandemic preparedness, and the feasibility of currently proposed business continuity strategies. Most participants reported that their businesses had no pandemic influenza plan. Agreement with feasibility of specific business continuity strategies was influenced by the type of business represented, cost of the strategy, and business size. It was concluded that recommendations for pandemic-related business continuity plans for small and medium-sized businesses should be tailored to the type and size of business and should highlight the broad utility of the proposed strategies to address a range of business stressors.

Vaccines for pandemic influenza. The history of our current vaccines, their limitations and the requirements to deal with a pandemic threat.

PubMed

Hampson, Alan W

2008-06-01

Fears of a potential pandemic due to A(H5N1) viruses have focussed new attention on our current vaccines, their shortcomings, and concerns regarding global vaccine supply in a pandemic. The bulk of current vaccines are inactivated split virus vaccines produced from egg-grown virus and have only modest improvements compared with those first introduced over 60 years ago. Splitting, which was introduced some years ago to reduce reactogenicity, also reduces the immunogenicity of vaccines in immunologically naïve recipients. The A(H5N1) viruses have been found poorly immunogenic and present other challenges for vaccine producers which further exacerbate an already limited global production capacity. There have been some recent improvements in vaccine production methods and improvements to immunogenicity by the development of new adjuvants, however, these still fall short of providing timely supplies of vaccine for all in the face of a pandemic. New approaches to influenza vaccines which might fulfil the demands of a pandemic situation are under evaluation, however, these remain some distance from clinical reality and face significant regulatory hurdles.

From press release to news: mapping the framing of the 2009 H1N1 A influenza pandemic.

PubMed

Lee, Seow Ting; Basnyat, Iccha

2013-01-01

Pandemics challenge conventional assumptions about health promotion, message development, community engagement, and the role of news media. To understand the use of press releases in news coverage of pandemics, this study traces the development of framing devices from a government public health agency's press releases to news stories about the 2009 H1N1 A influenza pandemic. The communication management of the H1N1 pandemic, an international news event with local implications, by the Singapore government is a rich locus for understanding the dynamics of public relations, health communication, and journalism. A content analysis shows that the evolution of information from press release to news is marked by significant changes in media frames, including the expansion and diversification in dominant frames and emotion appeals, stronger thematic framing, more sources of information, conversion of loss frames into gain frames, and amplification of positive tone favoring the public health agency's position. Contrary to previous research that suggests that government information subsidies passed almost unchanged through media gatekeepers, the news coverage of the pandemic reflects journalists' selectivity in disseminating the government press releases and in mediating the information flow and frames from the press releases.

Critically ill children with pandemic influenza (H1N1) in pediatric intensive care units in Turkey.

PubMed

Kendirli, Tanil; Demirkol, Demet; Yildizdas, Dinçer; Anil, Ayse Berna; Asilioğlu, Nazik; Karapinar, Bülent; Erkek, Nilgün; Sevketoğlu, Esra; Dursun, Oğuz; Arslanköylü, Ali Ertuğ; Bayrakçi, Benan; Bosnak, Mehmet; Köroğlu, Tolga; Horoz, Ozgür Ozden; Citak, Agop; Kesici, Selman; Ates, Can; Karaböcüoğlu, Metin; Ince, Erdal

2012-01-01

To outline the epidemiologic features, clinical presentation, clinical courses, and outcomes in critically ill children with pandemic influenza in pediatric intensive care units. Retrospective, observational, multicenter study. Thirteen tertiary pediatric intensive care units in Turkey. Eighty-three children with confirmed infection attributable to pandemic influenza detected by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction assay between November 1 and December 31, 2009 who were admitted to critical care units. None. During a 2-month period, 532 children were hospitalized with pandemic influenza and 83 (15.6%) needed critical care. For the 83 patients requiring critical care, the median age was 42 (range, 2-204) months, with 24 (28.9%) and 48 (57.8%) of patients younger than 2 and 5 yrs, respectively. Twenty (24.1%) patients had no underlying illness, but 63 (75.9%) children had an underlying chronic illness. Indications for admission to the pediatric intensive care unit were respiratory failure in 66 (79.5%), neurologic deterioration in six (7.2%), and gastrointestinal symptoms in five (6.0%) patients. Acute lung injury was diagnosed in 23 (27.7%), acute respiratory distress syndrome was diagnosed in 34 (41%), and 51 (61.4%) patients were mechanically ventilated. Oseltamivir was used in 80 (96%) patients. The mortality rate for children with pandemic influenza 2009 was 30.1% compared to an overall mortality rate of 13.7% (p = .0016) among pediatric intensive care unit patients without pandemic influenza during the study period. Also, the mortality rate was 31.7% in patients with comorbidities and 25.0% in previously healthy children (p = .567). The cause of death was primary pandemic influenza infection in 16 (64%), nosocomial infection in four (16%), and primary disease progression in five (20%) patients. The odds ratio for respiratory failure was 14.7 (95% confidence interval, 1.85-111.11), and odds ratio for mechanical ventilation was 27.7 (95% confidence interval, 0.003-200). Severe disease and high mortality rates were seen in children with pandemic influenza. Death attributable to pandemic influenza occurred in all age groups of children with or without underlying illness. Multiple organ dysfunction syndrome is associated with increased mortality, and death is frequently secondary to severe lung infection caused by pandemic influenza.

Cell culture-derived influenza vaccines from Vero cells: a new horizon for vaccine production.

PubMed

Montomoli, Emanuele; Khadang, Baharak; Piccirella, Simona; Trombetta, Claudia; Mennitto, Elisa; Manini, Ilaria; Stanzani, Valerio; Lapini, Giulia

2012-05-01

In the 20th century, three influenza pandemics killed approximately 100 million people. The traditional method of influenza vaccine manufacturing is based on using chicken eggs. However, the necessity of the availability of millions of fertile eggs in the event of a pandemic has led research to focus on the development of cell culture-derived vaccines, which offer shorter lead-in times and greater flexibility of production. So far, the cell substrates being evaluated and in use include Vero, Madin-Darby canine kidney, PER.C6 and insect cells. However, Vero cells are the most widely accepted among others. This review introduces briefly the concepts of advanced cell culture-derived influenza vaccine production and highlights the advantages of these vaccines in terms of efficiency, speed and immunogenicity based on the clinical data obtained from different studies.

Chapter 6. Protection of patients and staff during a pandemic. Recommendations and standard operating procedures for intensive care unit and hospital preparations for an influenza epidemic or mass disaster.

PubMed

Taylor, Bruce L; Montgomery, Hugh E; Rhodes, Andrew; Sprung, Charles L

2010-04-01

To provide recommendations and standard operating procedures (SOPs) for intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital preparations for an influenza pandemic or mass disaster with a specific focus on protection of patients and staff. Based on a literature review and expert opinion, a Delphi process was used to define the essential topics including protection of patients and staff. Key recommendations include: (1) prepare infection control and occupational health policies for clinical risks relating to potential disease transmission; (2) decrease clinical risks and provide adequate facilities through advanced planning to maximise capacity by increasing essential equipment, drugs, supplies and encouraging staff availability; (3) create robust systems to maintain staff confidence and safety by minimising non-clinical risks and maintaining or escalating essential services; (4) prepare formal reassurance plans for legal protection; (5) provide assistance to staff working outside their normal domains. Judicious planning and adoption of protocols for protection of patients and staff are necessary to optimise outcomes during a pandemic.

Exploring National Surveillance for Health-Related Workplace Absenteeism: Lessons Learned From the 2009 Influenza A Pandemic

PubMed Central

Groenewold, Matthew R.; Konicki, Doris L.; Luckhaupt, Sara E.; Gomaa, Ahmed; Koonin, Lisa M.

2015-01-01

Background During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did a pilot study to test the feasibility of using national surveillance of workplace absenteeism to assess the pandemic’s impact on the workplace to plan for preparedness and continuity of operations and to contribute to health awareness during the emergency response. Methods Population-based and sentinel worksite approaches were used. Monthly measures of the 1-week prevalence of health-related absenteeism among full-time workers were estimated using nationally representative data from the Current Population Survey. Enhanced passive surveillance of absenteeism was conducted using weekly data from a convenience sample of sentinel worksites. Results Nationally, the pandemic’s impact on workplace absenteeism was small. Estimates of 1-week absenteeism prevalence did not exceed 3.7%. However, peak workplace absenteeism was correlated with the highest occurrence of both influenza-like illness and influenza-positive laboratory tests. Conclusions Systems for monitoring workplace absenteeism should be included in pandemic preparedness planning PMID:24618167

Evolution of Scaling Emergence in Large-Scale Spatial Epidemic Spreading

PubMed Central

Wang, Lin; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yi-Qing; Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Kan

2011-01-01

Background Zipf's law and Heaps' law are two representatives of the scaling concepts, which play a significant role in the study of complexity science. The coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law motivates different understandings on the dependence between these two scalings, which has still hardly been clarified. Methodology/Principal Findings In this article, we observe an evolution process of the scalings: the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law are naturally shaped to coexist at the initial time, while the crossover comes with the emergence of their inconsistency at the larger time before reaching a stable state, where the Heaps' law still exists with the disappearance of strict Zipf's law. Such findings are illustrated with a scenario of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading, and the empirical results of pandemic disease support a universal analysis of the relation between the two laws regardless of the biological details of disease. Employing the United States domestic air transportation and demographic data to construct a metapopulation model for simulating the pandemic spread at the U.S. country level, we uncover that the broad heterogeneity of the infrastructure plays a key role in the evolution of scaling emergence. Conclusions/Significance The analyses of large-scale spatial epidemic spreading help understand the temporal evolution of scalings, indicating the coexistence of the Zipf's law and the Heaps' law depends on the collective dynamics of epidemic processes, and the heterogeneity of epidemic spread indicates the significance of performing targeted containment strategies at the early time of a pandemic disease. PMID:21747932

Health Inequalities and Infectious Disease Epidemics: A Challenge for Global Health Security

PubMed Central

Kumar, Supriya

2014-01-01

In today's global society, infectious disease outbreaks can spread quickly across the world, fueled by the rapidity with which we travel across borders and continents. Historical accounts of influenza pandemics and contemporary reports on infectious diseases clearly demonstrate that poverty, inequality, and social determinants of health create conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases, and existing health disparities or inequalities can further contribute to unequal burdens of morbidity and mortality. Yet, to date, studies of influenza pandemic plans across multiple countries find little to no recognition of health inequalities or attempts to engage disadvantaged populations to explicitly address the differential impact of a pandemic on them. To meet the goals and objectives of the Global Health Security Agenda, we argue that international partners, from WHO to individual countries, must grapple with the social determinants of health and existing health inequalities and extend their vision to include these factors so that disease that may start among socially disadvantaged subpopulations does not go unnoticed and spread across borders. These efforts will require rethinking surveillance systems to include sociodemographic data; training local teams of researchers and community health workers who are able to not only analyze data to recognize risk factors for disease, but also use simulation methods to assess the impact of alternative policies on reducing disease; integrating social science disciplines to understand local context; and proactively anticipating shortfalls in availability of adequate healthcare resources, including vaccines. Without explicit attention to existing health inequalities and underlying social determinants of health, the Global Health Security Agenda is unlikely to succeed in its goals and objectives. PMID:25254915

U.S. airport entry screening in response to pandemic influenza: Modeling and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malone, John D.; Brigantic, Robert; Muller, G.

2009-01-01

A stochastic discrete event simulation model was developed to assess the effectiveness of passenger screening for Pandemic Influenza (PI) at U.S. airport foreign entry. Methods: International passengers arriving at 18 U.S. airports from Asia, Europe, South America, and Canada were assigned to one of three states: not infected, infected with PI, infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers passed through layered screening then exited the model. 80% screening effectiveness was assumed for symptomatic passengers; 6% asymptomatic passengers. Results: In the first 100 days of a global pandemic, U.S. airport screening would evaluate over 17 M passengers with 800 K secondary screenings.more » 11,570 PI infected passengers (majority asymptomatic) would enter the U.S. undetected from all 18 airports. Foreign airport departure screening significantly decreased the false negative (infected/undetected) passengers. U.S. attack rates: no screening (26.9%-30.9%); screening (26.4%-30.6%); however airport screening results in 800 K-1.8 M less U.S. PI cases; 16 K-35 K less deaths (2% fatality rate). Antiviral medications for travel contact prophylaxis (10 contacts/PI passenger) were high - 8.8 M. False positives from all 18 airports: 100-200/day. Conclusions: Foreign shore exit screening greatly reduces numbers of PI infected passengers. U.S. airport screening identifies 50% infected individuals; efficacy is limited by the asymptomatic PI infected. Screening will not significantly delay arrival of PI via international air transport, but will reduce the rate of new US cases and subsequent deaths. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.« less

U.S. airport entry screening in response to pandemic influenza: Modeling and analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malone, John D.; Brigantic, Robert; Muller, George A.

2009-07-01

Background: A stochastic discrete event simulation model to assess the effectiveness of passenger screening for Pandemic Influenza (PI) at U.S. airport ports of entry was developed. Methods: International passengers arriving at 18 U.S. airports (AP) from Asia, Europe, South America, and Canada were assigned to one of three states: not infected, infected with PI, infected with other respiratory illness. Passengers passed through layered screening then exited the model. 80% screening effectiveness was assumed for symptomatic passengers; 6% asymptomatic passengers. Results: In the first 100 days of a global pandemic, U.S. AP screening would evaluate over 17M passengers with 800K secondarymore » screenings. 11,570 PI infected passengers (majority asymptomatic) would enter the U.S. undetected from all 18 APs. Foreign airport departure screening significantly decreased the false negative (infected/undetected) passengers. U.S. attack rates: no screening (26.9% - 30.9%); screening (26.4% - 30.6%); however AP screening results in 800K to 1.8M less U.S. PI cases; 16K-35K less deaths (2% fatality rate). Antiviral medications for travel contact prophylaxis (10 contacts/ PI passenger) was high - 8.8M. False positives all 18 APs: 100-200/day. Conclusions: Foreign shore exit screening greatly reduces numbers of infected PI passengers. U.S. AP screening identifies 50% infected individuals; efficacy is limited by the asymptomatic PI infected. Screening will not significantly delay arrival of PI via international air transport, but reduce the number of US cases and deaths.« less

Cost-Effectiveness of Healthcare Worker Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccination During Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Smith, Kenneth J.; Raymund, Mahlon; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Roberts, Mark S.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2010-01-01

Objective In prior influenza pandemics, pneumococcal complications of influenza have caused substantial morbidity and mortality. The usefulness and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal vaccination for healthcare workers during an influenza pandemic is unknown. Study Design Markov modeling was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination (PPV) in previously unvaccinated healthcare workers during an influenza pandemic. Methods Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence rates were incorporated into the model, assuming that IPD events occurred at twice the usual rate during the year of pandemic influenza. Both societal and hospital perspectives were examined. Assumptions were that: pneumococcal disease transmission from healthcare worker to patient did not occur, heightened IPD risk occurred for only 1 year, and PPV did not prevent noninvasive pneumonia, all of which potentially bias against vaccination. Results From a societal standpoint, pneumococcal vaccination of healthcare workers during an influenza pandemic is economically reasonable, costing $2,935 per quality adjusted life year gained; results were robust to variation in multiple sensitivity analyses. However, from the hospital perspective vaccinating healthcare workers was expensive, costing $1,676 per employee absence day avoided, given an IPD risk that, though increased, would still remain <1%. Conclusion Vaccinating all healthcare workers to protect against pneumococcal disease during a pandemic influenza outbreak is likely to be economically reasonable from the societal standpoint. However, pneumococcal vaccination is expensive from the hospital perspective, which might prevent implementation of a PPV program unless it is externally subsidized. PMID:20225915

Framing risk: communication messages in the Australian and Swedish print media surrounding the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

PubMed

Sandell, Tiffany; Sebar, Bernadette; Harris, Neil

2013-12-01

Australia and Sweden have similar immunisation rates. However, during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the uptake of immunisation was 60% in Sweden and 18% in Australia. During pandemics, perceptions of risk are largely formed by media communication which may influence the public's response. The study aimed to compare the differences in how the media framed the 2009 H1N1 pandemic message and the associated public perceptions of risk as expressed through the uptake of vaccinations in Australia and Sweden. A qualitative content analysis was conducted on 81 articles from the Australian and Swedish print media: 45 and 36, respectively. The risk of H1N1 was communicated similarly in Australia and Sweden. However, major differences were found in how the Australian and Swedish media framed the pandemic in terms of responsibility, self-efficacy, and uncertainty. In Australia, responsibility was predominantly reported negatively, blaming various organisations for a lack of information, compared to Sweden where responsibility was placed on the community to help protect public health. Furthermore, there was limited self-efficacy measures reported in the Australian media compared to Sweden and Sweden's media was more transparent about the uncertainties of the pandemic. This study affirms the association between the framing of health messages in the media and the public's perception of risk and related behaviour. Governments need to actively incorporate the media into pandemic communication planning.

H7N9 Influenza Virus Is More Virulent in Ferrets than 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus.

PubMed

Yum, Jung; Ku, Keun Bon; Kim, Hyun Soo; Seo, Sang Heui

2015-12-01

The novel H7N9 influenza virus has been infecting humans in China since February 2013 and with a mortality rate of about 40%. This study compared the pathogenicity of the H7N9 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses in a ferret model, which shows similar symptoms to those of humans infected with influenza viruses. The H7N9 influenza virus caused a more severe disease than did the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. All of the ferrets infected with the H7N9 influenza virus had died by 6 days after infection, while none of those infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus died. Ferrets infected with the H7N9 influenza virus had higher viral titers in their lungs than did those infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. Histological findings indicated that hemorrhagic pneumonia was caused by infection with the H7N9 influenza virus, but not with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. In addition, the lung tissues of ferrets infected with the H7N9 influenza virus contained higher levels of chemokines than did those of ferrets infected with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. This study suggests that close monitoring is needed to prevent human infection by the lethal H7N9 influenza virus.

[Characteristics of cases hospitalized for severe pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Catalonia].

PubMed

Godoy, Pere; Rodés, Anna; Alvarez, Josep; Camps, Neus; Barrabeig, Irene; Sala, María Rosa; Minguell, Sofía; Lafuente, Sarah; Pumarola, Tomás; Domínguez, Angela; Plasència, Antoni

2011-01-01

Influenza pandemics may cause more severe cases. The objective was to determine the characteristics of hospitalized severe cases of pandemic influenza in Catalonia and to study risk factors for admission to intensive care unit (ICU). A prospective epidemiologic study of new cases of pandemic influenza hospitalized by their severity between June 2009 and May 2010. Hospitals were asked to declare laboratory confirmed pandemic influenza cases that met the case specific case definition for severe case. A standardized epidemiological survey was conducted to collect information on demographics, clinical characteristics, risk factors, treatment and outcome. Differences between the cases in ICU compared to other severe cases were studied with the odds ratio (OR), which were adjusted using a logistic regression model. We detected total of 773 pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 severe cases; 465 (60.2%) of them had at least one risk factor and the most prevalent were: pregnancy 19 (13%), asthma 87 (12%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 87 (11.4%) and heart disease 80 (10.5%). Required admission to ICU 293 patients (37.9%). Factors associated with ICU admission were obesity BMI>40 (adjusted OR = 2.5, 95% CI 1.4-4.5) and chronic liver disease (adjusted OR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.8). This study confirms the high prevalence of pregnancy, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes and obesity among pandemic influenza severe cases. Obesity acts as a risk factor for ICU admission and should therefore be considered as an indicator for influenza vaccination.

Business continuity and pandemic preparedness: US health care versus non-health care agencies.

PubMed

Rebmann, Terri; Wang, Jing; Swick, Zachary; Reddick, David; delRosario, John Leon

2013-04-01

Only limited data are available on US business continuity activities related to biologic events. A questionnaire was administered to human resource professionals during May-July 2011 to assess business continuity related to biologic events, incentives businesses are providing to maximize worker surge capacity, and seasonal influenza vaccination policy. Linear regressions were used to describe factors associated with higher business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores. The χ(2) and Fisher exact tests compared health care versus non-health care businesses on preparedness indicators. Possible business continuity and pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0.5 to 27 and 0 to 15, with average resulting scores among participants at 13.2 and 7.3, respectively. Determinants of business continuity and pandemic preparedness were (1) business size (larger businesses were more prepared), (2) type of business (health care more prepared), (3) having human resource professional as company disaster planning committee member, and (4) risk perception of a pandemic in the next year. Most businesses (63.3%, n = 298) encourage staff influenza vaccination; 2.1% (n = 10) mandate it. Only 10% of businesses (11.0%, n = 52) provide employee incentives, and fewer than half (41.0%, n = 193) stockpile personal protective equipment. Despite the recent H1N1 pandemic, many US businesses lack adequate pandemic plans. It is critical that businesses of all sizes and types become better prepared for a biologic event. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Priority setting of ICU resources in an influenza pandemic: a qualitative study of the Canadian public's perspectives

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pandemic influenza may exacerbate existing scarcity of life-saving medical resources. As a result, decision-makers may be faced with making tough choices about who will receive care and who will have to wait or go without. Although previous studies have explored ethical issues in priority setting from the perspective of clinicians and policymakers, there has been little investigation into how the public views priority setting during a pandemic influenza, in particular related to intensive care resources. Methods To bridge this gap, we conducted three public town hall meetings across Canada to explore Canadian's perspectives on this ethical challenge. Town hall discussions group discussions were digitally recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results Six interrelated themes emerged from the town hall discussions related to: ethical and empirical starting points for deliberation; criteria for setting priorities; pre-crisis planning; in-crisis decision-making; the need for public deliberation and input; and participants' deliberative struggle with the ethical issues. Conclusions Our findings underscore the importance of public consultation in pandemic planning for sustaining public trust in a public health emergency. Participants appreciated the empirical and ethical uncertainty of decision-making in an influenza pandemic and demonstrated nuanced ethical reasoning about priority setting of intensive care resources in an influenza pandemic. Policymakers may benefit from a better understanding the public's empirical and ethical 'starting points' in developing effective pandemic plans. PMID:22449119

Death from 1918 pandemic influenza during the First World War: a perspective from personal and anecdotal evidence.

PubMed

Wever, Peter C; van Bergen, Leo

2014-09-01

The Meuse-Argonne offensive, a decisive battle during the First World War, is the largest frontline commitment in American military history involving 1.2 million U.S. troops. With over 26,000 deaths among American soldiers, the offensive is considered "America's deadliest battle". The Meuse-Argonne offensive coincided with the highly fatal second wave of the influenza pandemic in 1918. In Europe and in U.S. Army training camps, 1918 pandemic influenza killed around 45,000 American soldiers making it questionable which battle should be regarded "America's deadliest". The origin of the influenza pandemic has been inextricably linked with the men who occupied the military camps and trenches during the First World War. The disease had a profound impact, both for the military apparatus and for the individual soldier. It struck all the armies and might have claimed toward 100 000 fatalities among soldiers overall during the conflict while rendering millions ineffective. Yet, it remains unclear whether 1918 pandemic influenza had an impact on the course of the First World War. Still, even until this day, virological and bacteriological analysis of preserved archived remains of soldiers that succumbed to 1918 pandemic influenza has important implications for preparedness for future pandemics. These aspects are reviewed here in a context of citations, images, and documents illustrating the tragic events of 1918. © 2014 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Coupling effects on turning points of infectious diseases epidemics in scale-free networks.

PubMed

Kim, Kiseong; Lee, Sangyeon; Lee, Doheon; Lee, Kwang Hyung

2017-05-31

Pandemic is a typical spreading phenomenon that can be observed in the human society and is dependent on the structure of the social network. The Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) model describes spreading phenomena using two spreading factors; contagiousness (β) and recovery rate (γ). Some network models are trying to reflect the social network, but the real structure is difficult to uncover. We have developed a spreading phenomenon simulator that can input the epidemic parameters and network parameters and performed the experiment of disease propagation. The simulation result was analyzed to construct a new marker VRTP distribution. We also induced the VRTP formula for three of the network mathematical models. We suggest new marker VRTP (value of recovered on turning point) to describe the coupling between the SIR spreading and the Scale-free (SF) network and observe the aspects of the coupling effects with the various of spreading and network parameters. We also derive the analytic formulation of VRTP in the fully mixed model, the configuration model, and the degree-based model respectively in the mathematical function form for the insights on the relationship between experimental simulation and theoretical consideration. We discover the coupling effect between SIR spreading and SF network through devising novel marker VRTP which reflects the shifting effect and relates to entropy.

Special populations: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

PubMed

Dries, David; Reed, Mary Jane; Kissoon, Niranjan; Christian, Michael D; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Devereaux, Asha V; Upperman, Jeffrey S

2014-10-01

Past disasters have highlighted the need to prepare for subsets of critically ill, medically fragile patients. These special patient populations require focused disaster planning that will address their medical needs throughout the event to prevent clinical deterioration. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in large-scale disasters or pandemics with multiple critically ill or injured patients, including frontline clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. Key questions regarding the care of critically ill or injured special populations during disasters or pandemics were identified, and a systematic literature review (1985-2013) was performed. No studies of sufficient quality were identified. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. The panel did not include pediatrics as a separate special population because pediatrics issues are embedded in each consensus document. Fourteen suggestions were formulated regarding the care of critically ill and injured patients from special populations during pandemics and disasters. The suggestions cover the following areas: defining special populations for mass critical care, special population planning, planning for access to regionalized service for special populations, triage and resource allocation of special populations, therapeutic considerations, and crisis standards of care for special populations. Chronically ill, technologically dependent, and complex critically ill patients present a unique challenge to preparing and implementing mass critical care. There are, however, unique opportunities to engage patients, primary physicians, advocacy groups, and professional organizations to lessen the impact of disaster on these special populations.

Modeling emergent border-crossing behaviors during pandemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eunice E.; Santos, Eugene; Korah, John; Thompson, Jeremy E.; Gu, Qi; Kim, Keum Joo; Li, Deqing; Russell, Jacob; Subramanian, Suresh; Zhang, Yuxi; Zhao, Yan

2013-06-01

Modeling real-world scenarios is a challenge for traditional social science researchers, as it is often hard to capture the intricacies and dynamisms of real-world situations without making simplistic assumptions. This imposes severe limitations on the capabilities of such models and frameworks. Complex population dynamics during natural disasters such as pandemics is an area where computational social science can provide useful insights and explanations. In this paper, we employ a novel intent-driven modeling paradigm for such real-world scenarios by causally mapping beliefs, goals, and actions of individuals and groups to overall behavior using a probabilistic representation called Bayesian Knowledge Bases (BKBs). To validate our framework we examine emergent behavior occurring near a national border during pandemics, specifically the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. The novelty of the work in this paper lies in representing the dynamism at multiple scales by including both coarse-grained (events at the national level) and finegrained (events at two separate border locations) information. This is especially useful for analysts in disaster management and first responder organizations who need to be able to understand both macro-level behavior and changes in the immediate vicinity, to help with planning, prevention, and mitigation. We demonstrate the capabilities of our framework in uncovering previously hidden connections and explanations by comparing independent models of the border locations with their fused model to identify emergent behaviors not found in either independent location models nor in a simple linear combination of those models.

A review of simulation modelling approaches used for the spread of zoonotic influenza viruses in animal and human populations.

PubMed

Dorjee, S; Poljak, Z; Revie, C W; Bridgland, J; McNab, B; Leger, E; Sanchez, J

2013-09-01

Increasing incidences of emerging and re-emerging diseases that are mostly zoonotic (e.g. severe acute respiratory syndrome, avian influenza H5N1, pandemic influenza) has led to the need for a multidisciplinary approach to tackling these threats to public and animal health. Accordingly, a global movement of 'One-Health/One-Medicine' has been launched to foster collaborative efforts amongst animal and human health officials and researchers to address these problems. Historical evidence points to the fact that pandemics caused by influenza A viruses remain a major zoonotic threat to mankind. Recently, a range of mathematical and computer simulation modelling methods and tools have increasingly been applied to improve our understanding of disease transmission dynamics, contingency planning and to support policy decisions on disease outbreak management. This review provides an overview of methods, approaches and software used for modelling the spread of zoonotic influenza viruses in animals and humans, particularly those related to the animal-human interface. Modelling parameters used in these studies are summarized to provide references for future work. This review highlights the limited application of modelling research to influenza in animals and at the animal-human interface, in marked contrast to the large volume of its research in human populations. Although swine are widely recognized as a potential host for generating novel influenza viruses, and that some of these viruses, including pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009, have been shown to be readily transmissible between humans and swine, only one study was found related to the modelling of influenza spread at the swine-human interface. Significant gaps in the knowledge of frequency of novel viral strains evolution in pigs, farm-level natural history of influenza infection, incidences of influenza transmission between farms and between swine and humans are clearly evident. Therefore, there is a need to direct additional research to the study of influenza transmission dynamics in animals and at the animal-human interface. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

A method for analyzing clustered interval-censored data based on Cox's model.

PubMed

Kor, Chew-Teng; Cheng, Kuang-Fu; Chen, Yi-Hau

2013-02-28

Methods for analyzing interval-censored data are well established. Unfortunately, these methods are inappropriate for the studies with correlated data. In this paper, we focus on developing a method for analyzing clustered interval-censored data. Our method is based on Cox's proportional hazard model with piecewise-constant baseline hazard function. The correlation structure of the data can be modeled by using Clayton's copula or independence model with proper adjustment in the covariance estimation. We establish estimating equations for the regression parameters and baseline hazards (and a parameter in copula) simultaneously. Simulation results confirm that the point estimators follow a multivariate normal distribution, and our proposed variance estimations are reliable. In particular, we found that the approach with independence model worked well even when the true correlation model was derived from Clayton's copula. We applied our method to a family-based cohort study of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Taiwan during 2009-2010. Using the proposed method, we investigate the impact of vaccination and family contacts on the incidence of pH1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Transmission of Hemagglutinin D222G Mutant Strain of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus

PubMed Central

Facchini, Marzia; Spagnolo, Domenico; De Marco, Maria A.; Calzoletti, Laura; Zanetti, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Roberto; Tanzi, Maria L.; Cassone, Antonio; Rezza, Giovanni; Donatelli, Isabella

2010-01-01

A pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus strain carrying the D222G mutation was identified in a severely ill man and was transmitted to a household contact. Only mild illness developed in the contact, despite his obesity and diabetes. The isolated virus reacted fully with an antiserum against the pandemic vaccine strain. PMID:20409386

Getting Beyond Getting Ready for Pandemic Influenza

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

more information, see: http://homeland.house.gov/Hearings/index.asp?ID=89. “…Emerging biological threats such as pandemic influenza or weaponized ...which we have no immediately available cure. Work is clearly underway to prepare for such a biological event.10 However, despite the fact that...Nation to fully withstand the impact of such a devastating widespread biological event. Pandemic influenza would destroy the security of our

75 FR 75483 - Guidance for Industry: Recommendations for Blood Establishments: Training of Back-Up Personnel...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-03

... in Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus'' dated November 2009. The guidance announced in this..., and Preservation of the Blood Supply in Response to Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Virus'' (November 2009). At that time, we anticipated that the rapid spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus had the potential to...

Department of Defense Implementation Plan for Pandemic Influenza

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

and Low Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC)) will provide policy oversight of the DoD Pandemic Influenza bilateral and multilateral international...flexible worksites (e.g., telecommuting ) and flexible work hours (e.g., staggered shifts) in the event of a pandemic. o Ensure development of active...however, special consideration must be given to “social distancing” in the workplace through 74 telecommuting , or other means, as an

Flu Plan: Colleges Struggle with How They Would React to a Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guterman, Lila

2005-01-01

Administrators of various education schools have vowed to ready their institutions for the next major disaster of flu pandemic. While a few colleges with expertise or interest in the area are trying to determine how their campuses should react to a flu pandemic, most seem to be struggling with how to fit all the unknowns of such a crisis into…

Continual re-introduction of human pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses into US swine, 2009-2014

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Human-to-swine transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses (pH1N1) increased the genetic diversity of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs) globally and is linked to the emergence of new pandemic threats, including H3N2v variants. Through phylogenetic analysis of contemporary swIAVs in the Unit...

Safety and efficacy of a novel live attenuated influenza vaccine against pandemic H1N1 in swine

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

On June 11, 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreaks caused by novel swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus had reached pandemic proportions. The pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm) is the predominant influenza strain in the human population. It has also crossed the species barriers a...

Age as Risk Factor for Death from Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Chile

PubMed Central

Dabanch, Jeannette; Nájera, Manuel; González, Claudia; Guerrero, Andrea; Olea, Andrea; Fasce, Rodrigo; Morales, Cecilia; Vega, Jeanette

2011-01-01

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 affected Chile during the winter of 2009. The hospitalization rate was 0.56% overall and 3.47% for persons >60 years of age at risk for severe disease and death independent of concurrent conditions. Age >60 years was the major risk factor for death from pandemic (H1N1) 2009. PMID:21762580

Humoral and cellular responses to a non-adjuvanted monovalent H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine in hospital employees

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The efficacy of the H1N1 influenza vaccine relies on the induction of both humoral and cellular responses. This study evaluated the humoral and cellular responses to a monovalent non-adjuvanted pandemic influenza A/H1N1 vaccine in occupationally exposed subjects who were previously vaccinated with a seasonal vaccine. Methods Sixty healthy workers from a respiratory disease hospital were recruited. Sera and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were obtained prior to and 1 month after vaccination with a non-adjuvanted monovalent 2009 H1N1 vaccine (Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Monovalent Vaccine Panenza, Sanofi Pasteur). Antibody titers against the pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus were measured via hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralization assays. Antibodies against the seasonal HA1 were assessed by ELISA. The frequency of IFN-γ-producing cells as well as CD4+ and CD8+ T cell proliferation specific to the pandemic virus A/H1N peptides, seasonal H1N1 peptides and seasonal H3N2 peptides were assessed using ELISPOT and flow cytometry. Results At baseline, 6.7% of the subjects had seroprotective antibody titers. The seroconversion rate was 48.3%, and the seroprotection rate was 66.7%. The geometric mean titers (GMTs) were significantly increased (from 6.8 to 64.9, p < 0.05). Forty-nine percent of the subjects had basal levels of specific IFN-γ-producing T cells to the pandemic A/H1N1 peptides that were unchanged post-vaccination. CD4+ T cell proliferation in response to specific pandemic A/H1N1 virus peptides was also unchanged; in contrast, the antigen-specific proliferation of CD8+ T cells significantly increased post-vaccination. Conclusion Our results indicate that a cellular immune response that is cross-reactive to pandemic influenza antigens may be present in populations exposed to the circulating seasonal influenza virus prior to pandemic or seasonal vaccination. Additionally, we found that the pandemic vaccine induced a significant increase in CD8+ T cell proliferation. PMID:24238117

Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention

PubMed Central

Boyd, Matt; Baker, Michael G.; Mansoor, Osman D.; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Wilson, Nick

2017-01-01

Background Countries are well advised to prepare for future pandemic risks (e.g., pandemic influenza, novel emerging agents or synthetic bioweapons). These preparations do not typically include planning for complete border closure. Even though border closure may not be instituted in time, and can fail, there might still plausible chances of success for well organized island nations. Objective To estimate costs and benefits of complete border closure in response to new pandemic threats, at an initial proof-of-concept level. New Zealand was used as a case-study for an island country. Methods An Excel spreadsheet model was developed to estimate costs and benefits. Case-study specific epidemiological data was sourced from past influenza pandemics. Country-specific healthcare cost data, valuation of life, and lost tourism revenue were imputed (with lost trade also in scenario analyses). Results For a new pandemic equivalent to the 1918 influenza pandemic (albeit with half the mortality rate, “Scenario A”), it was estimated that successful border closure for 26 weeks provided a net societal benefit (e.g., of NZ$11.0 billion, USD$7.3 billion). Even in the face of a complete end to trade, a net benefit was estimated for scenarios where the mortality rate was high (e.g., at 10 times the mortality impact of “Scenario A”, or 2.75% of the country’s population dying) giving a net benefit of NZ$54 billion (USD$36 billion). But for some other pandemic scenarios where trade ceased, border closure resulted in a net negative societal value (e.g., for “Scenario A” times three for 26 weeks of border closure–but not for only 12 weeks of closure when it would still be beneficial). Conclusions This “proof-of-concept” work indicates that more detailed cost-benefit analysis of border closure in very severe pandemic situations for some island nations is probably warranted, as this course of action might sometimes be worthwhile from a societal perspective. PMID:28622344

Pandemic and post-pandemic influenza A (H1N1) seasons in a tertiary care university hospital-high rate of complications compared to previous influenza seasons.

PubMed

Bauernfeind, S; Bruennler, T; Ehrenstein, B; Langgartner, J; Wenzel, J J; Werner, S; Lubnow, M; Mueller, T; Floerchinger, B; Salzberger, B

2013-02-01

The aim was to study the characteristics and case severity of patients hospitalized for influenza with a pandemic strain at a German tertiary care university hospital in 2009/10 and 2010/11 and to compare them to two previous influenza seasons. An observational study of all patients hospitalized for laboratory-confirmed influenza during the last four influenza seasons at Regensburg University Hospital was undertaken. During the last four seasons, a rising number of patients were admitted due to influenza (4 in 2007/8, 16 in 2008/9, 27 in 2009/10, and 55 in 2010/11). Patients seen in the last two seasons were younger (median age 63 years in 2007/8, 52 years in 2008/9, 42 years in 2009/10, and 48 years in 2010/11) (p = 0.046) and presented with a lower rate of major comorbidities (75 % in 2007/8, 62.5 % in 2008/9, 37 % in 2009/10, and 47.3 % in 2010/11). The pandemic and post-pandemic seasons were characterized by a high rate of seriously ill patients with longer hospitalizations (11 days in 2007/8, 7 days in 2008/9, 22 days in 2009/10 and 2010/11) (p = 0.004) and higher rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (25 % in 2007/8, 18.8 % in 2008/9, 66.7 % in 2009/10, and 52.7 % in 2010/11) (p = 0.003) and mechanical ventilation (25 % in 2007/8, 6.3 % in 2008/9, 63 % in 2009/10, and 49.1 % in 2010/11) (p < 0.001). Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) was necessary in 33.3 % of patients in 2009/10 and 25.5 % in 2010/11. We had six fatalities in both pandemic and post-pandemic seasons. Compared to seasonal influenza, we observed even more so in the post-pandemic than the pandemic season a higher number of younger patients, with less serious comorbidities often showing a very severe course.

Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu'): diagnostic and other challenges.

PubMed

Burkardt, Hans-Joachim

2011-01-01

Pandemic H1N1 2009 ('swine flu') virus was 'the virus of the year 2009' because it affected the lives of many people in this year. H1N1 was first described in California in April 2009 and spread very rapidly all over the globe. The fast global penetration of the swine flu caused the WHO in Geneva to call the infection with H1N1 a new pandemic with a rapid escalation of the different pandemic phases that ended on 11 June 2009, with the declaration of phase 6 (full-blown pandemic). This had far-reaching consequences for the local health authorities in the different affected countries and created awareness in the public and fear in the experts and even more so in many lay people. The consequences were: setting up reliable diagnostic tests as soon as possible; enhanced production, distribution and stock creation of the few drugs that were available to treat newly infected persons; and development, production, distribution and stock creation of new and appropriate anti-H1N1 swine flu vaccines. This all resulted in enormous costs in the local healthcare systems and also required smart and diligent logistics, because demand for all this was, in most cases, much higher than availability. Fortunately, the pandemic ended quite quickly (there was no 'second wave' as had been anticipated by some experts) and the death toll was moderate, compared with other influenza pandemic in the past and even to the regular annual appearance of the seasonal flu. This favorable outcome, however, provoked some harsh criticism that the WHO and healthcare systems in general had over-reacted and by doing so, a lot of money was thrown out of the window. This article describes the history of the H1N1 pandemic, the diagnostic challenges and resolutions, touches on treatment and vaccination very briefly and also comments on the criticism and arguments that came up immediately at the end and following the termination of the pandemic situation.

Simulating Nationwide Pandemics: Applying the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis System to Human Infectious Diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dombroski, M; Melius, C; Edmunds, T

2008-09-24

This study uses the Multi-scale Epidemiologic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) system developed for foreign animal diseases to assess consequences of nationwide human infectious disease outbreaks. A literature review identified the state of the art in both small-scale regional models and large-scale nationwide models and characterized key aspects of a nationwide epidemiological model. The MESA system offers computational advantages over existing epidemiological models and enables a broader array of stochastic analyses of model runs to be conducted because of those computational advantages. However, it has only been demonstrated on foreign animal diseases. This paper applied the MESA modeling methodology to humanmore » epidemiology. The methodology divided 2000 US Census data at the census tract level into school-bound children, work-bound workers, elderly, and stay at home individuals. The model simulated mixing among these groups by incorporating schools, workplaces, households, and long-distance travel via airports. A baseline scenario with fixed input parameters was run for a nationwide influenza outbreak using relatively simple social distancing countermeasures. Analysis from the baseline scenario showed one of three possible results: (1) the outbreak burned itself out before it had a chance to spread regionally, (2) the outbreak spread regionally and lasted a relatively long time, although constrained geography enabled it to eventually be contained without affecting a disproportionately large number of people, or (3) the outbreak spread through air travel and lasted a long time with unconstrained geography, becoming a nationwide pandemic. These results are consistent with empirical influenza outbreak data. The results showed that simply scaling up a regional small-scale model is unlikely to account for all the complex variables and their interactions involved in a nationwide outbreak. There are several limitations of the methodology that should be explored in future work including validating the model against reliable historical disease data, improving contact rates, spread methods, and disease parameters through discussions with epidemiological experts, and incorporating realistic behavioral assumptions.« less

Plasticity of 150-loop in influenza neuraminidase explored by Hamiltonian replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations.

PubMed

Han, Nanyu; Mu, Yuguang

2013-01-01

Neuraminidase (NA) of influenza is a key target for antiviral inhibitors, and the 150-cavity in group-1 NA provides new insight in treating this disease. However, NA of 2009 pandemic influenza (09N1) was found lacking this cavity in a crystal structure. To address the issue of flexibility of the 150-loop, Hamiltonian replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations were performed on different groups of NAs. Free energy landscape calculated based on the volume of 150-cavity indicates that 09N1 prefers open forms of 150-loop. The turn A (residues 147-150) of the 150-loop is discovered as the most dynamical motif which induces the inter-conversion of this loop among different conformations. In the turn A, the backbone dynamic of residue 149 is highly related with the shape of 150-loop, thus can function as a marker for the conformation of 150-loop. As a contrast, the closed conformation of 150-loop is more energetically favorable in N2, one of group-2 NAs. The D147-H150 salt bridge is found having no correlation with the conformation of 150-loop. Instead the intimate salt bridge interaction between the 150 and 430 loops in N2 variant contributes the stabilizing factor for the closed form of 150-loop. The clustering analysis elaborates the structural plasticity of the loop. This enhanced sampling simulation provides more information in further structural-based drug discovery on influenza virus.

Plasticity of 150-Loop in Influenza Neuraminidase Explored by Hamiltonian Replica Exchange Molecular Dynamics Simulations

PubMed Central

Han, Nanyu; Mu, Yuguang

2013-01-01

Neuraminidase (NA) of influenza is a key target for antiviral inhibitors, and the 150-cavity in group-1 NA provides new insight in treating this disease. However, NA of 2009 pandemic influenza (09N1) was found lacking this cavity in a crystal structure. To address the issue of flexibility of the 150-loop, Hamiltonian replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations were performed on different groups of NAs. Free energy landscape calculated based on the volume of 150-cavity indicates that 09N1 prefers open forms of 150-loop. The turn A (residues 147–150) of the 150-loop is discovered as the most dynamical motif which induces the inter-conversion of this loop among different conformations. In the turn A, the backbone dynamic of residue 149 is highly related with the shape of 150-loop, thus can function as a marker for the conformation of 150-loop. As a contrast, the closed conformation of 150-loop is more energetically favorable in N2, one of group-2 NAs. The D147-H150 salt bridge is found having no correlation with the conformation of 150-loop. Instead the intimate salt bridge interaction between the 150 and 430 loops in N2 variant contributes the stabilizing factor for the closed form of 150-loop. The clustering analysis elaborates the structural plasticity of the loop. This enhanced sampling simulation provides more information in further structural-based drug discovery on influenza virus. PMID:23593372

Physician privacy concerns when disclosing patient data for public health purposes during a pandemic influenza outbreak

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Privacy concerns by providers have been a barrier to disclosing patient information for public health purposes. This is the case even for mandated notifiable disease reporting. In the context of a pandemic it has been argued that the public good should supersede an individual's right to privacy. The precise nature of these provider privacy concerns, and whether they are diluted in the context of a pandemic are not known. Our objective was to understand the privacy barriers which could potentially influence family physicians' reporting of patient-level surveillance data to public health agencies during the Fall 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza outbreak. Methods Thirty seven family doctors participated in a series of five focus groups between October 29-31 2009. They also completed a survey about the data they were willing to disclose to public health units. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the amount of patient detail the participants were willing to disclose, factors that would facilitate data disclosure, and the consensus on those factors. The analysis of the qualitative data was based on grounded theory. Results The family doctors were reluctant to disclose patient data to public health units. This was due to concerns about the extent to which public health agencies are dependable to protect health information (trusting beliefs), and the possibility of loss due to disclosing health information (risk beliefs). We identified six specific actions that public health units can take which would affect these beliefs, and potentially increase the willingness to disclose patient information for public health purposes. Conclusions The uncertainty surrounding a pandemic of a new strain of influenza has not changed the privacy concerns of physicians about disclosing patient data. It is important to address these concerns to ensure reliable reporting during future outbreaks. PMID:21658256

Bell’s palsy and influenza(H1N1)pdm09 containing vaccines: A self-controlled case series

PubMed Central

Wijnans, Leonoor; Weibel, Daniel; Sturkenboom, Miriam

2017-01-01

Background An association between AS03 adjuvanted pandemic influenza vaccine and the occurrence of Bell’s palsy was found in a population based cohort study in Stockholm, Sweden. To evaluate this association in a different population, we conducted a self-controlled case series in a primary health care database, THIN, in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to determine whether there was an increased risk of Bell’s palsy following vaccination with any influenza vaccine containing A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)-like viral strains. Secondly, we investigated whether risks were different following pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccines and seasonal influenza vaccines containing the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain. Methods The study population comprised all incident Bell’s palsy cases between 1 June 2009 and 30 June 2013 identified in THIN. We determined the relative incidence (RI) of Bell’s palsy during the 6 weeks following vaccination with either pandemic or seasonal influenza vaccine. All analyses were adjusted for seasonality and confounding variables. Results We found an incidence rate of Bell’s palsy of 38.7 per 100,000 person years. Both acute respiratory infection (ARI) consultations and pregnancy were found to be confounders. When adjusted for seasonality, ARI consultations and pregnancies, the RI during the 42 days after vaccination with an influenza vaccine was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.72–1.01). The RI was similar during the 42 days following seasonal vaccine (0.96, 95%CI: 0.82–1.13) or pandemic vaccine (0.73, 95%CI: 0.47–1.12). Conclusion We found no evidence for an increased incidence of Bell’s palsy following seasonal influenza vaccination overall, nor for monovalent pandemic influenza vaccine in 2009. PMID:28467420

Pathogenicity testing of influenza candidate vaccine viruses in the ferret model.

PubMed

Belser, Jessica A; Johnson, Adam; Pulit-Penaloza, Joanna A; Pappas, Claudia; Pearce, Melissa B; Tzeng, Wen-Pin; Hossain, M Jaber; Ridenour, Callie; Wang, Li; Chen, Li-Mei; Wentworth, David E; Katz, Jacqueline M; Maines, Taronna R; Tumpey, Terrence M

2017-11-01

The development of influenza candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) for pre-pandemic vaccine production represents a critical step in pandemic preparedness. The multiple subtypes and clades of avian or swine origin influenza viruses circulating world-wide at any one time necessitates the continuous generation of CVVs to provide an advanced starting point should a novel zoonotic virus cross the species barrier and cause a pandemic. Furthermore, the evolution and diversity of novel influenza viruses that cause zoonotic infections requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance, and, when a lack of antigenic match between circulating viruses and available CVVs is identified, the production of new CVVs. Pandemic guidelines developed by the WHO Global Influenza Program govern the design and preparation of reverse genetics-derived CVVs, which must undergo numerous safety and quality tests prior to human use. Confirmation of reassortant CVV attenuation of virulence in ferrets relative to wild-type virus represents one of these critical steps, yet there is a paucity of information available regarding the relative degree of attenuation achieved by WHO-recommended CVVs developed against novel viruses with pandemic potential. To better understand the degree of CVV attenuation in the ferret model, we examined the relative virulence of six A/Puerto Rico/8/1934-based CVVs encompassing five different influenza A subtypes (H2N3, H5N1, H5N2, H5N8, and H7N9) compared with the respective wild-type virus in ferrets. Despite varied virulence of wild-type viruses in the ferret, all CVVs examined showed reductions in morbidity and viral shedding in upper respiratory tract tissues. Furthermore, unlike the wild-type counterparts, none of the CVVs spread to extrapulmonary tissues during the acute phase of infection. While the magnitude of virus attenuation varied between virus subtypes, collectively we show the reliable and reproducible attenuation of CVVs that have the A/Puerto Rico/9/1934 backbone in a mammalian model. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry in response to a pandemic influenza threat.

PubMed

Pierce, Carrie L; Williams, Tracie L; Santana, Wanda I; Levine, Marnie; Chen, Li-Mei; Cooper, Hans C; Solano, Maria I; Woolfitt, Adrian R; Marasco, Wayne A; Fang, He; Donis, Ruben O; Barr, John R

2017-09-05

As a result of recent advances in mass spectrometry-based protein quantitation methods, these techniques are now poised to play a critical role in rapid formulation of pandemic influenza vaccines. Analytical techniques that have been developed and validated on seasonal influenza strains can be used to increase the quality and decrease the time required to deliver protective pandemic vaccines to the global population. The emergence of a potentially pandemic avian influenza A (H7N9) virus in March of 2013, prompted the US public health authorities and the vaccine industry to initiate production of a pre-pandemic vaccine for preparedness purposes. To this end, we evaluated the feasibility of using immunocapture isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IC-IDMS) to evaluate the suitability of the underlying monoclonal and polyclonal antibodies (mAbs and pAbs) for their capacity to isolate the H7 hemagglutinin (HA) in this new vaccine for quantification by IDMS. A broad range of H7 capture efficiencies was observed among mAbs tested by IC-IDMS with FR-545, 46/6, and G3 A533 exhibiting the highest cross-reactivity capabilities to H7 of A/Shanghai/2/2013. MAb FR-545 was selected for continued assessment, evaluated by IC-IDMS for mAb reactivity against H7 in the H7N9 candidate vaccine virus and compared with/to reactivity to the reference polyclonal antiserum in allantoic fluid, purified whole virus, lyophilized whole virus and final detergent-split monovalent vaccine preparations for vaccine development. IC-IDMS assessment of FR-545 alongside IC-IDMS using the reference polyclonal antiserum to A/Shanghai/2/2013 and with the regulatory SRID method showed strong correlation and mAb IC-IDMS could have played an important role in the event a potential surrogate potency test was required to be rapidly implemented. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Pathogenicity testing of influenza candidate vaccine viruses in the ferret model

PubMed Central

Belser, Jessica A.; Johnson, Adam; Pulit-Penaloza, Joanna A.; Pappas, Claudia; Pearce, Melissa B.; Tzeng, Wen-Pin; Hossain, M. Jaber; Ridenour, Callie; Wang, Li; Chen, Li-Mei; Wentworth, David E.; Katz, Jacqueline M.; Maines, Taronna R.; Tumpey, Terrence M.

2018-01-01

The development of influenza candidate vaccine viruses (CVVs) for pre-pandemic vaccine production represents a critical step in pandemic preparedness. The multiple subtypes and clades of avian or swine origin influenza viruses circulating world-wide at any one time necessitates the continuous generation of CVVs to provide an advanced starting point should a novel zoonotic virus cross the species barrier and cause a pandemic. Furthermore, the evolution and diversity of novel influenza viruses that cause zoonotic infections requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance, and, when a lack of antigenic match between circulating viruses and available CVVs is identified, the production of new CVVs. Pandemic guidelines developed by the WHO Global Influenza Program govern the design and preparation of reverse genetics-derived CVVs, which must undergo numerous safety and quality tests prior to human use. Confirmation of reassortant CVV attenuation of virulence in ferrets relative to wild-type virus represents one of these critical steps, yet there is a paucity of information available regarding the relative degree of attenuation achieved by WHO-recommended CVVs developed against novel viruses with pandemic potential. To better understand the degree of CVV attenuation in the ferret model, we examined the relative virulence of six A/Puerto Rico/8/1934-based CVVs encompassing five different influenza A subtypes (H2N3, H5N1, H5N2, H5N8, and H7N9) compared with the respective wild-type virus in ferrets. Despite varied virulence of wild-type viruses in the ferret, all CVVs examined showed reductions in morbidity and viral shedding in upper respiratory tract tissues. Furthermore, unlike the wild-type counterparts, none of the CVVs spread to extrapulmonary tissues during the acute phase of infection. While the magnitude of virus attenuation varied between virus subtypes, collectively we show the reliable and reproducible attenuation of CVVs that have the A/Puerto Rico/9/1934 backbone in a mammalian model. PMID:28846898

Characterizing the Epidemiology of the 2009 Influenza A/H1N1 Pandemic in Mexico

PubMed Central

Chowell, Gerardo; Echevarría-Zuno, Santiago; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Tamerius, James; Miller, Mark A.; Borja-Aburto, Víctor H.

2011-01-01

Background Mexico's local and national authorities initiated an intense public health response during the early stages of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. In this study we analyzed the epidemiological patterns of the pandemic during April–December 2009 in Mexico and evaluated the impact of nonmedical interventions, school cycles, and demographic factors on influenza transmission. Methods and Findings We used influenza surveillance data compiled by the Mexican Institute for Social Security, representing 40% of the population, to study patterns in influenza-like illness (ILIs) hospitalizations, deaths, and case-fatality rate by pandemic wave and geographical region. We also estimated the reproduction number (R) on the basis of the growth rate of daily cases, and used a transmission model to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies initiated during the spring pandemic wave. A total of 117,626 ILI cases were identified during April–December 2009, of which 30.6% were tested for influenza, and 23.3% were positive for the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus. A three-wave pandemic profile was identified, with an initial wave in April–May (Mexico City area), a second wave in June–July (southeastern states), and a geographically widespread third wave in August–December. The median age of laboratory confirmed ILI cases was ∼18 years overall and increased to ∼31 years during autumn (p<0.0001). The case-fatality ratio among ILI cases was 1.2% overall, and highest (5.5%) among people over 60 years. The regional R estimates were 1.8–2.1, 1.6–1.9, and 1.2–1.3 for the spring, summer, and fall waves, respectively. We estimate that the 18-day period of mandatory school closures and other social distancing measures implemented in the greater Mexico City area was associated with a 29%–37% reduction in influenza transmission in spring 2009. In addition, an increase in R was observed in late May and early June in the southeast states, after mandatory school suspension resumed and before summer vacation started. State-specific fall pandemic waves began 2–5 weeks after school reopened for the fall term, coinciding with an age shift in influenza cases. Conclusions We documented three spatially heterogeneous waves of the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic virus in Mexico, which were characterized by a relatively young age distribution of cases. Our study highlights the importance of school cycles on the transmission dynamics of this pandemic influenza strain and suggests that school closure and other mitigation measures could be useful to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:21629683