Long-term records of growth and distribution of conifers: Integration of paleoecology and physiological ecology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Graumlich, L.J.; Brubaker, L.B.

1995-07-01

The specter of human-induced alteration of atmospheric composition, and the associated changes in climate, have focused attention on how species, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change. One source of information concerning this is the paleoecological record. Paleoecology offers insights in the nature of climate-vegetation interactions that derive from the well-documented response of plant communities to environmental changes of the past. The spatial and temporal resolution of paleoecological data sets has increased in recent decades, so that relatively detailed histories of conifer forests are available for much of North America and Europe. In addition, comparisons of records of past vegetationmore » dynamics to paleoclimatic simulations by general circulation models have improved the understanding of the role of climate in governing past vegetation change. Several major findings of paleoresearch have importance to investigations of the effects of future climate change on the Earth`s biota. These include the findings (1) that changing seasonality may result in unexpected vegetation patterns, (2) that climatic and vegetation changes can be rapid, with ecosystem-wide implications, and (3) that short-term, extreme events can have long-term effects on tree population structures. In this chapter, we discuss patterns of coniferous forest response to climatic variation at two temporal scales: the Late Quaternary and the last millennium. Our examples illustrate the wide range of potential responses of coniferous forests to climatic variation, and emphasize opportunities for applying paleoecological findings to questions of ecophysiological research. Although we rely largely on examples from North America, our conclusions are well-supported by parallel research results in Europe and Asia.« less

The Tyndall Petition: Bridging the Gap between Academia and the General Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duong, K.; Ong, J.

2017-12-01

Climatepedia is a student-founded organization with a mission to communicate climate science to a broad audience. Since its inception in 2011, Climatepedia has grown from a UCLA club to a transitioning 501(c)(3) non-profit organization with members from UCLA, UC Irvine, Yale University, Duke University, UC Santa Barbara, and the University of Pennsylvania. Our main project is the Tyndall Petition (http://www.climatepedia.org/home/tyndallpetition) - the largest online climate petition of its kind - which features nearly 700 signatories who agree that human-induced climate change is an urgent and real issue. Our signatories are PhD level experts with a research focus in climate science or a highly related field. Each signatory has their own profile page that links to other signatories within our network. The Tyndall Petition can be used as a tool to bring transparency to the climate experts that support our statement. In this way, we hope to inform the general audience about the strong scientific consensus about climate change. We also seek to improve climate literacy through exposure to diverse research topics related to climate change. The Tyndall Petition can serve as a mechanism to connect signatories to regional climate issues and the communities affected by these issues. In parallel, Climatepedia administers a Student Certificate Program that trains college students to become climate literate, gain skills in climate communication, and support the growth of the Tyndall Petition.

Temporal and spatial influences incur reconfiguration of Arctic heathland soil bacterial community structure.

PubMed

Hill, Richard; Saetnan, Eli R; Scullion, John; Gwynn-Jones, Dylan; Ostle, Nick; Edwards, Arwyn

2016-06-01

Microbial responses to Arctic climate change could radically alter the stability of major stores of soil carbon. However, the sensitivity of plot-scale experiments simulating climate change effects on Arctic heathland soils to potential confounding effects of spatial and temporal changes in soil microbial communities is unknown. Here, the variation in heathland soil bacterial communities at two survey sites in Sweden between spring and summer 2013 and at scales between 0-1 m and, 1-100 m and between sites (> 100 m) were investigated in parallel using 16S rRNA gene T-RFLP and amplicon sequencing. T-RFLP did not reveal spatial structuring of communities at scales < 100 m in any site or season. However, temporal changes were striking. Amplicon sequencing corroborated shifts from r- to K-selected taxon-dominated communities, influencing in silico predictions of functional potential. Network analyses reveal temporal keystone taxa, with a spring betaproteobacterial sub-network centred upon a Burkholderia operational taxonomic unit (OTU) and a reconfiguration to a summer sub-network centred upon an alphaproteobacterial OTU. Although spatial structuring effects may not confound comparison between plot-scale treatments, temporal change is a significant influence. Moreover, the prominence of two temporally exclusive keystone taxa suggests that the stability of Arctic heathland soil bacterial communities could be disproportionally influenced by seasonal perturbations affecting individual taxa. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatiotemporal Domain Decomposition for Massive Parallel Computation of Space-Time Kernel Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hohl, A.; Delmelle, E. M.; Tang, W.

2015-07-01

Accelerated processing capabilities are deemed critical when conducting analysis on spatiotemporal datasets of increasing size, diversity and availability. High-performance parallel computing offers the capacity to solve computationally demanding problems in a limited timeframe, but likewise poses the challenge of preventing processing inefficiency due to workload imbalance between computing resources. Therefore, when designing new algorithms capable of implementing parallel strategies, careful spatiotemporal domain decomposition is necessary to account for heterogeneity in the data. In this study, we perform octtree-based adaptive decomposition of the spatiotemporal domain for parallel computation of space-time kernel density. In order to avoid edge effects near subdomain boundaries, we establish spatiotemporal buffers to include adjacent data-points that are within the spatial and temporal kernel bandwidths. Then, we quantify computational intensity of each subdomain to balance workloads among processors. We illustrate the benefits of our methodology using a space-time epidemiological dataset of Dengue fever, an infectious vector-borne disease that poses a severe threat to communities in tropical climates. Our parallel implementation of kernel density reaches substantial speedup compared to sequential processing, and achieves high levels of workload balance among processors due to great accuracy in quantifying computational intensity. Our approach is portable of other space-time analytical tests.

Identification of Photosynthetic Plankton Communities Using Sedimentary Ancient DNA and Their Response to late-Holocene Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Hou, Weiguo; Dong, Hailiang; Li, Gaoyuan; Yang, Jian; Coolen, Marco J. L.; Liu, Xingqi; Wang, Shang; Jiang, Hongchen; Wu, Xia; Xiao, Haiyi; Lian, Bin; Wan, Yunyang

2014-01-01

Sediments from Tibetan lakes in NW China are potentially sensitive recorders of climate change and its impact on ecosystem function. However, the important plankton members in many Tibetan Lakes do not make and leave microscopically diagnostic features in the sedimentary record. Here we established a taxon-specific molecular approach to specifically identify and quantify sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) of non-fossilized planktonic organisms preserved in a 5-m sediment core from Kusai Lake spanning the last 3100 years. The reliability of the approach was validated with multiple independent genetic markers. Parallel analyses of the geochemistry of the core and paleo-climate proxies revealed that Monsoon strength-driven changes in nutrient availability, temperature, and salinity as well as orbitally-driven changes in light intensity were all responsible for the observed temporal changes in the abundance of two dominant phytoplankton groups in the lake, Synechococcus (cyanobacteria) and Isochrysis (haptophyte algae). Collectively our data show that global and regional climatic events exhibited a strong influence on the paleoecology of phototrophic plankton in Kusai Lake. PMID:25323386

Governing for a Healthy Population: Towards an Understanding of How Decision-Making Will Determine Our Global Health in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Friel, Sharon; Ebi, Kristie; Butler, Colin D.; Miller, Fiona; McMichael, Anthony J.

2011-01-01

Enhancing the adaptive capacity of individuals, communities, institutions and nations is pivotal to protecting and improving human health and well-being in the face of systemic social inequity plus dangerous climate change. However, research on the determinants of adaptive capacity in relation to health, particularly concerning the role of governance, is in its infancy. This paper highlights the intersections between global health, climate change and governance. It presents an overview of these key concerns, their relation to each other, and the potential that a greater understanding of governance may present opportunities to strengthen policy and action responses to the health effects of climate change. Important parallels between addressing health inequities and sustainable development practices in the face of global environmental change are also highlighted. We propose that governance can be investigated through two key lenses within the earth system governance theoretical framework; agency and architecture. These two governance concepts can be evaluated using methods of social network research and policy analysis using case studies and is the subject of further research. PMID:22470278

Interactive Parallel Data Analysis within Data-Centric Cluster Facilities using the IPython Notebook

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, S.; Lansdowne, J.; Iwi, A.; Stephens, A.; Kershaw, P.

2012-12-01

The data deluge is making traditional analysis workflows for many researchers obsolete. Support for parallelism within popular tools such as matlab, IDL and NCO is not well developed and rarely used. However parallelism is necessary for processing modern data volumes on a timescale conducive to curiosity-driven analysis. Furthermore, for peta-scale datasets such as the CMIP5 archive, it is no longer practical to bring an entire dataset to a researcher's workstation for analysis, or even to their institutional cluster. Therefore, there is an increasing need to develop new analysis platforms which both enable processing at the point of data storage and which provides parallelism. Such an environment should, where possible, maintain the convenience and familiarity of our current analysis environments to encourage curiosity-driven research. We describe how we are combining the interactive python shell (IPython) with our JASMIN data-cluster infrastructure. IPython has been specifically designed to bridge the gap between the HPC-style parallel workflows and the opportunistic curiosity-driven analysis usually carried out using domain specific languages and scriptable tools. IPython offers a web-based interactive environment, the IPython notebook, and a cluster engine for parallelism all underpinned by the well-respected Python/Scipy scientific programming stack. JASMIN is designed to support the data analysis requirements of the UK and European climate and earth system modeling community. JASMIN, with its sister facility CEMS focusing the earth observation community, has 4.5 PB of fast parallel disk storage alongside over 370 computing cores provide local computation. Through the IPython interface to JASMIN, users can make efficient use of JASMIN's multi-core virtual machines to perform interactive analysis on all cores simultaneously or can configure IPython clusters across multiple VMs. Larger-scale clusters can be provisioned through JASMIN's batch scheduling system. Outputs can be summarised and visualised using the full power of Python's many scientific tools, including Scipy, Matplotlib, Pandas and CDAT. This rich user experience is delivered through the user's web browser; maintaining the interactive feel of a workstation-based environment with the parallel power of a remote data-centric processing facility.

Running climate model on a commercial cloud computing environment: A case study using Community Earth System Model (CESM) on Amazon AWS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiuhong; Huang, Xianglei; Jiao, Chaoyi; Flanner, Mark G.; Raeker, Todd; Palen, Brock

2017-01-01

The suites of numerical models used for simulating climate of our planet are usually run on dedicated high-performance computing (HPC) resources. This study investigates an alternative to the usual approach, i.e. carrying out climate model simulations on commercially available cloud computing environment. We test the performance and reliability of running the CESM (Community Earth System Model), a flagship climate model in the United States developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), on Amazon Web Service (AWS) EC2, the cloud computing environment by Amazon.com, Inc. StarCluster is used to create virtual computing cluster on the AWS EC2 for the CESM simulations. The wall-clock time for one year of CESM simulation on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster is comparable to the time spent for the same simulation on a local dedicated high-performance computing cluster with InfiniBand connections. The CESM simulation can be efficiently scaled with the number of CPU cores on the AWS EC2 virtual cluster environment up to 64 cores. For the standard configuration of the CESM at a spatial resolution of 1.9° latitude by 2.5° longitude, increasing the number of cores from 16 to 64 reduces the wall-clock running time by more than 50% and the scaling is nearly linear. Beyond 64 cores, the communication latency starts to outweigh the benefit of distributed computing and the parallel speedup becomes nearly unchanged.

Hadoop for High-Performance Climate Analytics: Use Cases and Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tamkin, Glenn

2013-01-01

Scientific data services are a critical aspect of the NASA Center for Climate Simulations mission (NCCS). Hadoop, via MapReduce, provides an approach to high-performance analytics that is proving to be useful to data intensive problems in climate research. It offers an analysis paradigm that uses clusters of computers and combines distributed storage of large data sets with parallel computation. The NCCS is particularly interested in the potential of Hadoop to speed up basic operations common to a wide range of analyses. In order to evaluate this potential, we prototyped a series of canonical MapReduce operations over a test suite of observational and climate simulation datasets. The initial focus was on averaging operations over arbitrary spatial and temporal extents within Modern Era Retrospective- Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. After preliminary results suggested that this approach improves efficiencies within data intensive analytic workflows, we invested in building a cyber infrastructure resource for developing a new generation of climate data analysis capabilities using Hadoop. This resource is focused on reducing the time spent in the preparation of reanalysis data used in data-model inter-comparison, a long sought goal of the climate community. This paper summarizes the related use cases and lessons learned.

The JASMIN Analysis Platform - bridging the gap between traditional climate data practicies and data-centric analysis paradigms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, Stephen; Iwi, Alan; kershaw, philip; Stephens, Ag; Lawrence, Bryan

2014-05-01

The advent of large-scale data and the consequential analysis problems have led to two new challenges for the research community: how to share such data to get the maximum value and how to carry out efficient analysis. Solving both challenges require a form of parallelisation: the first is social parallelisation (involving trust and information sharing), the second data parallelisation (involving new algorithms and tools). The JASMIN infrastructure supports both kinds of parallelism by providing a multi-tennent environment with petabyte-scale storage, VM provisioning and batch cluster facilities. The JASMIN Analysis Platform (JAP) is an analysis software layer for JASMIN which emphasises ease of transition from a researcher's local environment to JASMIN. JAP brings together tools traditionally used by multiple communities and configures them to work together, enabling users to move analysis from their local environment to JASMIN without rewriting code. JAP also provides facilities to exploit JASMIN's parallel capabilities whilst maintaining their familiar analysis environment where ever possible. Modern opensource analysis tools typically have multiple dependent packages, increasing the installation burden on system administrators. When you consider a suite of tools, often with both common and conflicting dependencies, analysis pipelines can become locked to a particular installation simply because of the effort required to reconstruct the dependency tree. JAP addresses this problem by providing a consistent suite of RPMs compatible with RedHat Enterprise Linux and CentOS 6.4. Researchers can install JAP locally, either as RPMs or through a pre-built VM image, giving them the confidence to know moving analysis to JASMIN will not disrupt their environment. Analysis parallelisation is in it's infancy in climate sciences, with few tools capable of exploiting any parallel environment beyond manual scripting of the use of multiple processors. JAP begins to bridge this gap through a veriety of higher-level tools for parallelisation and job scheduling such as IPython-parallel and MPI support for interactive analysis languages. We find that enabling even simple parallelisation of workflows, together with the state of the art I/O performance of JASMIN storage, provides many users with the large increases in efficiency they need to scale their analyses to conteporary data volumes and tackly new, previously inaccessible, problems.

ParCAT: A Parallel Climate Analysis Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugen, B.; Smith, B.; Steed, C.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Shipman, G.

2012-12-01

Climate science has employed increasingly complex models and simulations to analyze the past and predict the future of our climate. The size and dimensionality of climate simulation data has been growing with the complexity of the models. This growth in data is creating a widening gap between the data being produced and the tools necessary to analyze large, high dimensional data sets. With single run data sets increasing into 10's, 100's and even 1000's of gigabytes, parallel computing tools are becoming a necessity in order to analyze and compare climate simulation data. The Parallel Climate Analysis Toolkit (ParCAT) provides basic tools that efficiently use parallel computing techniques to narrow the gap between data set size and analysis tools. ParCAT was created as a collaborative effort between climate scientists and computer scientists in order to provide efficient parallel implementations of the computing tools that are of use to climate scientists. Some of the basic functionalities included in the toolkit are the ability to compute spatio-temporal means and variances, differences between two runs and histograms of the values in a data set. ParCAT is designed to facilitate the "heavy lifting" that is required for large, multidimensional data sets. The toolkit does not focus on performing the final visualizations and presentation of results but rather, reducing large data sets to smaller, more manageable summaries. The output from ParCAT is provided in commonly used file formats (NetCDF, CSV, ASCII) to allow for simple integration with other tools. The toolkit is currently implemented as a command line utility, but will likely also provide a C library for developers interested in tighter software integration. Elements of the toolkit are already being incorporated into projects such as UV-CDAT and CMDX. There is also an effort underway to implement portions of the CCSM Land Model Diagnostics package using ParCAT in conjunction with Python and gnuplot. ParCAT is implemented in C to provide efficient file IO. The file IO operations in the toolkit use the parallel-netcdf library; this enables the code to use the parallel IO capabilities of modern HPC systems. Analysis that currently requires an estimated 12+ hours with the traditional CCSM Land Model Diagnostics Package can now be performed in as little as 30 minutes on a single desktop workstation and a few minutes for relatively small jobs completed on modern HPC systems such as ORNL's Jaguar.

Parallel responses of bees to Pleistocene climate change in three isolated archipelagos of the southwestern Pacific.

PubMed

Groom, Scott V C; Stevens, Mark I; Schwarz, Michael P

2014-06-22

The impacts of glacial cycles on the geographical distribution and size of populations have been explored for numerous terrestrial and marine taxa. However, most studies have focused on high latitudes, with only a few focused on the response of biota to the last glacial maximum (LGM) in equatorial regions. Here, we examine how population sizes of key bee fauna in the southwest Pacific archipelagos of Fiji, Vanuatu and Samoa have fluctuated over the Quaternary. We show that all three island faunas suffered massive population declines, roughly corresponding in time to the LGM, followed by rapid expansion post-LGM. Our data therefore suggest that Pleistocene climate change has had major impacts across a very broad tropical region. While other studies indicate widespread Holarctic effects of the LGM, our data suggest a much wider range of latitudes, extending to the tropics, where these climate change repercussions were important. As key pollinators, the inferred changes in these bee faunas may have been critical in the development of the diverse Pacific island flora. The magnitude of these responses indicates future climate change scenarios may have alarming consequences for Pacific island systems involving pollinator-dependent plant communities and agricultural crops.

Relationship of the South Asian Monsoon and Regional Drought with Distinct Equatorial Pacific SST Patterns on Interannual and Decadal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, M.; Ummenhofer, C.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2014-12-01

The Asian monsoon system influences the lives of over 60% of the planet's population, with widespread socioeconomic effects resulting from weakening or failure of monsoon rains. Spatially broad and temporally extended drought episodes have been known to dramatically influence human history, including the Strange Parallels Drought in the mid-18th century. Here, we explore the dynamics of sustained monsoon failure using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas - a high-resolution network of hydro-climatically sensitive tree-ring records - and a 1300-year pre-industrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Spatial drought patterns in the instrumental and model-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during years with extremely weakened South Asian monsoon are similar to those reconstructed during the Strange Parallels Drought in the MADA. We further explore how the large-scale Indo-Pacific climate during weakened South Asian monsoon differs between interannual and decadal timescales. The Strange Parallels Drought pattern is observed during March-April-May primarily over Southeast Asia, with decreased precipitation and reduced moisture fluxes, while anomalies in June-July-August are confined to the Indian subcontinent during both individual and decadal events. Individual years with anomalous drying exhibit canonical El Niño conditions over the eastern equatorial Pacific and associated shifts in the Walker circulation, while decadal events appear to be related to anomalous warming around the dateline in the equatorial Pacific, typical of El Niño Modoki events. The results suggest different dynamical processes influence drought at different time scales through distinct remote ocean influences.

Decadal climate prediction in the large ensemble limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeager, S. G.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; Strand, G.; Lindsay, K. T.; Danabasoglu, G.; Karspeck, A. R.; Bates, S. C.; Meehl, G. A.

2017-12-01

In order to quantify the benefits of initialization for climate prediction on decadal timescales, two parallel sets of historical simulations are required: one "initialized" ensemble that incorporates observations of past climate states and one "uninitialized" ensemble whose internal climate variations evolve freely and without synchronicity. In the large ensemble limit, ensemble averaging isolates potentially predictable forced and internal variance components in the "initialized" set, but only the forced variance remains after averaging the "uninitialized" set. The ensemble size needed to achieve this variance decomposition, and to robustly distinguish initialized from uninitialized decadal predictions, remains poorly constrained. We examine a large ensemble (LE) of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments carried out using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). This 40-member CESM-DP-LE set of experiments represents the "initialized" complement to the CESM large ensemble of 20th century runs (CESM-LE) documented in Kay et al. (2015). Both simulation sets share the same model configuration, historical radiative forcings, and large ensemble sizes. The twin experiments afford an unprecedented opportunity to explore the sensitivity of DP skill assessment, and in particular the skill enhancement associated with initialization, to ensemble size. This talk will highlight the benefits of a large ensemble size for initialized predictions of seasonal climate over land in the Atlantic sector as well as predictions of shifts in the likelihood of climate extremes that have large societal impact.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keysa, T.P.

Characteristics of design, construction, performance, and educational opportunity are described for a small, simple passive solar community center in Christian Bend, Tennessee. This 2500-square-foot structure was designed in cooperation with this community of 75 families by TVA architects and was built entirely by volunteer labor. An educational process paralleled all phases of this building, begining with programming sessions, continuing through design, construction, occupation, and operation of the space. The direct gain building utilizes energy planning in both the interior and exterior. Earth berming and utilization of natural topography aid in the building's compatibility with both summer and winter climatic events.more » In addition to microclimatic design, interior space planning aids in naturally tempering spaces from extremes in climate. Extensive use of buffer spaces, an airlock entry, and placement of glazing areas (for direct gain and natural and induced ventilation) aid in the natural energy utilization and distribution in the interior spaces. Unique aspects include a double roof, which aids both in prevention of heat loss and in induced ventilation, and other operable garage door type roll down insulated shutters over the south facing aperture areas utilized both as night insulation and as a radiation barrier. This is the other major unique factor in this building. It has been designed both as an energy efficient community center for business as usual, and as an evacuation point and temporary shelter in th event of natural (flood) or man-induced (nuclear) disaster.« less

Ocean Modeling and Visualization on Massively Parallel Computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Yi; Li, P. Peggy; Wang, Ping; Katz, Daniel S.; Cheng, Benny N.

1997-01-01

Climate modeling is one of the grand challenges of computational science, and ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change.

Analysis and Lessons Learned from an Online, Consultative Dialogue between Community Leaders and Climate Experts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylak-Glassman, E.; Clavin, C.

2016-12-01

Common approaches to climate resilience planning in the United States rely upon participatory planning approaches and dialogues between decision-makers, science translators, and subject matter experts. In an effort to explore alternative approaches support community climate resilience planning, a pilot of a public-private collaboration called the Resilience Dialogues was held in February and March of 2016. The Resilience Dialogues pilot was an online, asynchronous conversation between community leaders and climate experts, designed to help communities begin the process of climate resilience planning. In order to identify lessons learned from the pilot, we analyzed the discourse of the facilitated dialogues, administered surveys and conducted interviews with participants. Our analysis of the pilot suggests that participating community leaders found value in the consultative dialogue with climate experts, despite limited community-originated requests for climate information. Community leaders most often asked for advice regarding adaptation planning, including specific engineering guidance and advice on how to engage community members around the topic of resilience. Community leaders that had access to downscaled climate data asked experts about how to incorporate the data into their existing planning processes. The guidance sought by community leaders during the pilot shows a large range of hurdles that communities face in using climate information to inform their decision-making processes. Having a forum that connects community leaders with relevant experts and other community leaders who have familiarity with both climate impacts and municipal planning processes would likely help communities accelerate their resilience efforts.

Benchmarking NWP Kernels on Multi- and Many-core Processors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalakes, J.; Vachharajani, M.

2008-12-01

Increased computing power for weather, climate, and atmospheric science has provided direct benefits for defense, agriculture, the economy, the environment, and public welfare and convenience. Today, very large clusters with many thousands of processors are allowing scientists to move forward with simulations of unprecedented size. But time-critical applications such as real-time forecasting or climate prediction need strong scaling: faster nodes and processors, not more of them. Moreover, the need for good cost- performance has never been greater, both in terms of performance per watt and per dollar. For these reasons, the new generations of multi- and many-core processors being mass produced for commercial IT and "graphical computing" (video games) are being scrutinized for their ability to exploit the abundant fine- grain parallelism in atmospheric models. We present results of our work to date identifying key computational kernels within the dynamics and physics of a large community NWP model, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. We benchmark and optimize these kernels on several different multi- and many-core processors. The goals are to (1) characterize and model performance of the kernels in terms of computational intensity, data parallelism, memory bandwidth pressure, memory footprint, etc. (2) enumerate and classify effective strategies for coding and optimizing for these new processors, (3) assess difficulties and opportunities for tool or higher-level language support, and (4) establish a continuing set of kernel benchmarks that can be used to measure and compare effectiveness of current and future designs of multi- and many-core processors for weather and climate applications.

Using Outreach and Engagement Efforts to Inform the Makah Tribe's Climate Adaptation Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, L. K.; Chang, M.; Howk, F.

2017-12-01

The Makah Tribe views climate change as one of the biggest challenges to their natural resource management, threatening their livelihoods, economy, and culture. As part of their work towards climate adaptation planning, the Makah Tribal Council and tribal natural resource managers prioritized early community outreach and engagement efforts in order to accomplish three goals: continually update and inform the tribal community about the Tribe's climate adaptation efforts; gather community input and priorities for the Makah Climate Adaptation Plan; and provide a series of targeted educational events to inform the tribal community about projected climate change impacts to our resources. Our first community climate event, the Makah Climate Change Awareness Dinner, was held on February 8, 2017. At this event, we provided an overview of the Makah Tribe's Climate Vulnerability Assessment and administered an initial climate survey that gathered information regarding community members' observed environmental changes, knowledge about climate change and impacts, and any concerns and priorities to include in the Tribe's adaptation plan. We developed a framework for incorporating community engagement into climate adaptation planning and used results of our community survey to ensure community concerns were being addressed in the plan in addition to risks identified in western science. We also used survey results to inform a series of educational events to address knowledge gaps in the community and requested topics. These are two of next steps that the Makah Tribe is pursuing towards climate adaptation planning.

Micro-environment measurement along a climatic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szita, Renáta; Ambrus, András

2017-04-01

Aquatic macroinvertebrates are heavily influenced by the climatic changes even in temperate, forested habitats. The potential impacts of global climate change may be an increase in water temperatures, changes in seasonal patterns (including intensity) of precipitation and runoff which can alter hydrologic characteristics of aquatic systems. Rapid changes in hydrology caused by extreme heavy rainfalls - especially if there are clearcuts within the catchment area - may cause changes in the hydromorphology, restructure the stream bed or alter the path of the stream itself. All these affect the species composition, that is why the investigated aquatic ecosystems, the streams in forested area have limited ability to adapt to climate change. In recent study, the samples were taken from three streams which are located in similar, forested areas. The sampling sites were chosen along a climatic gradient. The first sampling site is in Mecsek mountains (South Hungary), the second one is in Kőszeg mountains (West Hungary) and the third one is in Sopron mountains (Northwest Hungary). The biological samples were taken with a specific cross-section transect arrangement, applying a new, microhabitat-based quadrat sampling method in all selected areas. Parallel with the macroinvertebrate sampling, there were taken hydraulic measures too. The velocity profile, shear velocity, shear stress, drag force and the Reynold's and Froude numbers were estimated to define the near-bed hydraulic conditions, which influence the community structure of aquatic macroinvertebrates. The main aims of the study were recognize differences along the climatic gradient in a similar habitat types of small streams in forested area if there are any, check up the ability of detection fine differences between similar communities of the new sampling methode which focuses on the microhabitat-structure of certain stream sections instead of taking and analyzing composit samples from the whole section. One more additional important aim was to investigate the microhabitat preference of the Habitats Directive Annex II. Dragonfly species, the Cordulegaster heros which inhabits each sampling sites. This project was partly supported by VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034 project.

Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

Temperature is better than precipitation as a predictor of plant community assembly across a dryland region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Butterfield, Bradley J.; Munson, Seth M.

2016-01-01

QuestionHow closely do plant communities track climate? Research suggests that plant species converge toward similar environmental tolerances relative to the environments that they experience. Whether these patterns apply to severe environments or scale up to plant community-level patterns of relative climatic tolerances is poorly understood. Using estimates of species' climatic tolerances acquired from occurrence records, we determined the contributions of individual species' climatic niche breadths and environmental filtering to the relationships between community-average climatic tolerances and the local climates experienced by those communities.LocationSouthwestern United States drylands.MethodsInterspecific variation in niche breadth was assessed as a function of species' climatic optima (median climatic niche value). The relationships between climatic optima and tolerances were used as null expectations for the relationship between abundance-weighted mean climatic tolerances of communities and the local climate of that community. Deviations from this null expectation indicate that species with greater or lesser climatic tolerances are favoured relative to co-occurring species. The intensity of environmental filtering was estimated by comparing the range of climatic tolerances within each community to a null distribution generated from a random assembly algorithm.ResultsThe temperature niches of species were consistently symmetrical and of similar breadths, regardless of their temperature optima. In contrast, precipitation niches were skewed toward wetter conditions, and niche breadth increased with increasing precipitation optima. At the community level, relationships with climate were much stronger for temperature than for precipitation. Furthermore, cold and heat were stronger assembly filters than drought or precipitation, with the intensity of environmental filtering increasing at both ends of climatic gradients. Community-average climatic tolerances did deviate significantly from null expectations, indicating that species with higher or lower relative climatic tolerances were favoured under certain conditions.ConclusionsDespite strong water limitation of plant performance in dryland ecosystems, communities tracked variation in temperature much more closely, intimating strong responses to anticipated temperature increases. Furthermore, abundance distributions were biased toward species with higher or lower relative climatic tolerances under different climatic conditions, but predictably so, indicating the need for assembly models that include processes other than simple environmental filtering.

Software Engineering Support of the Third Round of Scientific Grand Challenge Investigations: Earth System Modeling Software Framework Survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Talbot, Bryan; Zhou, Shu-Jia; Higgins, Glenn; Zukor, Dorothy (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

One of the most significant challenges in large-scale climate modeling, as well as in high-performance computing in other scientific fields, is that of effectively integrating many software models from multiple contributors. A software framework facilitates the integration task, both in the development and runtime stages of the simulation. Effective software frameworks reduce the programming burden for the investigators, freeing them to focus more on the science and less on the parallel communication implementation. while maintaining high performance across numerous supercomputer and workstation architectures. This document surveys numerous software frameworks for potential use in Earth science modeling. Several frameworks are evaluated in depth, including Parallel Object-Oriented Methods and Applications (POOMA), Cactus (from (he relativistic physics community), Overture, Goddard Earth Modeling System (GEMS), the National Center for Atmospheric Research Flux Coupler, and UCLA/UCB Distributed Data Broker (DDB). Frameworks evaluated in less detail include ROOT, Parallel Application Workspace (PAWS), and Advanced Large-Scale Integrated Computational Environment (ALICE). A host of other frameworks and related tools are referenced in this context. The frameworks are evaluated individually and also compared with each other.

New Community Education Program on Oceans and Global Climate Change: Results from Our Pilot Year

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruno, B. C.; Wiener, C.

2010-12-01

Ocean FEST (Families Exploring Science Together) engages elementary school students and their parents and teachers in hands-on science. Through this evening program, we educate participants about ocean and earth science issues that are relevant to their local communities. In the process, we hope to inspire more underrepresented students, including Native Hawaiians, Pacific Islanders and girls, to pursue careers in the ocean and earth sciences. Hawaii and the Pacific Islands will be disproportionately affected by the impacts of global climate change, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion, coral reef degradation and ocean acidification. It is therefore critically important to train ocean and earth scientists within these communities. This two-hour program explores ocean properties and timely environmental topics through six hands-on science activities. Activities are designed so students can see how globally important issues (e.g., climate change and ocean acidification) have local effects (e.g., sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching) which are particularly relevant to island communities. The Ocean FEST program ends with a career component, drawing parallel between the program activities and the activities done by "real scientists" in their jobs. The take-home message is that we are all scientists, we do science every day, and we can choose to do this as a career. Ocean FEST just completed our pilot year. During the 2009-2010 academic year, we conducted 20 events, including 16 formal events held at elementary schools and 4 informal outreach events. Evaluation data were collected at all formal events. Formative feedback from adult participants (parents, teachers, administrators and volunteers) was solicited through written questionnaires. Students were invited to respond to a survey of five questions both before and after the program to see if there were any changes in content knowledge and career attitudes. In our presentation, we will present our evaluation results from the first year and discuss how our program has been informed by this feedback.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa; Campany, Courtney E

2010-01-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneathmore » dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting how climate change will alter ecosystem functioning.« less

Unveiling exceptional Baltic bog ecohydrology, autogenic succession and climate change during the last 2000 years in CE Europe using replicate cores, multi-proxy data and functional traits of testate amoebae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gałka, Mariusz; Tobolski, Kazimierz; Lamentowicz, Łukasz; Ersek, Vasile; Jassey, Vincent E. J.; van der Knaap, Willem O.; Lamentowicz, Mariusz

2017-01-01

We present the results of high-resolution, multi-proxy palaeoecological investigations of two parallel peat cores from the Baltic raised bog Mechacz Wielki in NE Poland. We aim to evaluate the role of regional climate and autogenic processes of the raised bog itself in driving the vegetation and hydrology dynamics. Based on partly synchronous changes in Sphagnum communities in the two study cores we suggest that extrinsic factors (climate) played an important role as a driver in mire development during the bog stage (500-2012 CE). Using a testate amoebae transfer function, we found exceptionally stable hydrological conditions during the last 2000 years with a relatively high water table and lack of local fire events that allowed for rapid peat accumulation (2.75 mm/year) in the bog. Further, the strong correlation between pH and community-weighted mean of testate amoeba traits suggests that other variables than water-table depth play a role in driving microbial properties under stable hydrological conditions. There is a difference in hydrological dynamics in bogs between NW and NE Poland until ca 1500 CE, after which the water table reconstructions show more similarities. Our results illustrate how various functional traits relate to different environmental variables in a range of trophic and hydrological scenarios on long time scales. Moreover, our data suggest a common regional climatic forcing in Mechacz Wielki, Gązwa and Kontolanrahka. Though it may still be too early to attempt a regional summary of wetness change in the southern Baltic region, this study is a next step to better understand the long-term peatland palaeohydrology in NE Europe.

The QWeCI Project: seamlessly linking climate science to society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morse, A. P.; Caminade, C.; Jones, A. E.; MacLeod, D.; Heath, A. E.

2012-04-01

The EU FP7 QWeCI project Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on health in developing countries (www.liv.ac.uk/qweci) has 13 partners with 7 of these in Africa. The geographical focus of the project is in Senegal, Ghana and Malawi. In all three countries the project has a strong scientific dissemination outlook as well as having field based surveillance programmes in Ghana and Senegal to understand more about the local parameters controlling the transmission of malaria and in Senegal of Rift Valley fever. The project has a strong and active climate science activity in using hindcasts of the new System 4 seasonal forecasting system at ECMWF; to further develop the use of monthly to seasonal forecasts from ensemble prediction systems; within project downscaling development; the assessment of decadal ensemble prediction systems; and the development and testing of vector borne disease models for malaria and Rift Valley fever. In parallel with the science programme the project has a large outreach activity involving regular communication and bi-lateral exchanges, science and decision maker focused workshops. In Malawi a long range WiFi network has been established for the dissemination of data. In Senegal where they is a concentration of partners and stakeholders the project is gaining a role as a catalyst for wider health and climate related activity within government departments and national research bodies along with the support and involvement of local communities. Within these wider community discussions we have interactive inputs from African and European scientists who are partners in the project. This paper will show highlights of the work completed so far and give an outline to future development and to encourage a wider user interaction from outside of the current project team and their direct collaborators.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

Parallel computing method for simulating hydrological processesof large rivers under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Chen, Y.

2016-12-01

Climate change is one of the proverbial global environmental problems in the world.Climate change has altered the watershed hydrological processes in time and space distribution, especially in worldlarge rivers.Watershed hydrological process simulation based on physically based distributed hydrological model can could have better results compared with the lumped models.However, watershed hydrological process simulation includes large amount of calculations, especially in large rivers, thus needing huge computing resources that may not be steadily available for the researchers or at high expense, this seriously restricted the research and application. To solve this problem, the current parallel method are mostly parallel computing in space and time dimensions.They calculate the natural features orderly thatbased on distributed hydrological model by grid (unit, a basin) from upstream to downstream.This articleproposes ahigh-performancecomputing method of hydrological process simulation with high speedratio and parallel efficiency.It combinedthe runoff characteristics of time and space of distributed hydrological model withthe methods adopting distributed data storage, memory database, distributed computing, parallel computing based on computing power unit.The method has strong adaptability and extensibility,which means it canmake full use of the computing and storage resources under the condition of limited computing resources, and the computing efficiency can be improved linearly with the increase of computing resources .This method can satisfy the parallel computing requirements ofhydrological process simulation in small, medium and large rivers.

MERRA Analytic Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D. Q.; McInerney, M. A.; Tamkin, G. S.; Thompson, J. H.; Gill, R.; Grieg, C. M.

2012-12-01

MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) is a cyberinfrastructure resource for developing and evaluating a new generation of climate data analysis capabilities. MERRA/AS supports OBS4MIP activities by reducing the time spent in the preparation of Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data used in data-model intercomparison. It also provides a testbed for experimental development of high-performance analytics. MERRA/AS is a cloud-based service built around the Virtual Climate Data Server (vCDS) technology that is currently used by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) to deliver Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) data to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Crucial to its effectiveness, MERRA/AS's servers will use a workflow-generated realizable object capability to perform analyses over the MERRA data using the MapReduce approach to parallel storage-based computation. The results produced by these operations will be stored by the vCDS, which will also be able to host code sets for those who wish to explore the use of MapReduce for more advanced analytics. While the work described here will focus on the MERRA collection, these technologies can be used to publish other reanalysis, observational, and ancillary OBS4MIP data to ESGF and, importantly, offer an architectural approach to climate data services that can be generalized to applications and customers beyond the traditional climate research community. In this presentation, we describe our approach, experiences, lessons learned,and plans for the future.; (A) MERRA/AS software stack. (B) Example MERRA/AS interfaces.

Assessing Confidence in Pliocene Sea Surface Temperatures to Evaluate Predictive Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling. M.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.;

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Robinson, Marci M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Stoll, Danielle K.; Chan, Wing-Le; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Chandler, Mark A.; Rosenbloom, Nan A.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Bragg, Fran J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Foley, Kevin M.; Riesselman, Christina R.

2012-01-01

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Linking environmental filtering and disequilibrium to biogeography with a community climate framework.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Nogués-Bravo, David; Borregaard, Michael K; Donoghue, John C; Jørgensen, Peter M; Kraft, Nathan J B; Lessard, Jean-Philippe; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Violle, Cyrille; Rahbek, Carsten; Enquist, Brian J

2015-04-01

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial-interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near-future climate change.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.

PubMed

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa A; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

2010-03-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of atmospheric and climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting the manner in which global change will alter ecosystem functioning.

Parallel heuristics for scalable community detection

DOE PAGES

Lu, Hao; Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Kalyanaraman, Ananth

2015-08-14

Community detection has become a fundamental operation in numerous graph-theoretic applications. Despite its potential for application, there is only limited support for community detection on large-scale parallel computers, largely owing to the irregular and inherently sequential nature of the underlying heuristics. In this paper, we present parallelization heuristics for fast community detection using the Louvain method as the serial template. The Louvain method is an iterative heuristic for modularity optimization. Originally developed in 2008, the method has become increasingly popular owing to its ability to detect high modularity community partitions in a fast and memory-efficient manner. However, the method ismore » also inherently sequential, thereby limiting its scalability. Here, we observe certain key properties of this method that present challenges for its parallelization, and consequently propose heuristics that are designed to break the sequential barrier. For evaluation purposes, we implemented our heuristics using OpenMP multithreading, and tested them over real world graphs derived from multiple application domains. Compared to the serial Louvain implementation, our parallel implementation is able to produce community outputs with a higher modularity for most of the inputs tested, in comparable number or fewer iterations, while providing real speedups of up to 16x using 32 threads.« less

Climate Change and Implications for Prevention. California's Efforts to Provide Leadership.

PubMed

Balmes, John R

2018-04-01

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and the temperature of the earth's surface have been rising in parallel for decades, with the former recently reaching 400 parts per million, consistent with a 1.5°C increase in global warming. Climate change models predict that a "business as usual" approach, that is, no effort to control CO 2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, will result in a more than 2°C increase in annual average surface temperature by approximately 2034. With atmospheric warming comes increased air pollution. The concept of a "climate gap" in air quality control captures the decreased effectiveness of regulatory policies to reduce pollution with a hotter climate. Sources of greenhouse gases and climate-forcing aerosols ("black carbon") are the same sources of air pollutants that harm health. California has adopted robust climate change mitigation policies that are also designed to achieve public health cobenefits by improving air quality. These policies include advanced clean car standards, renewable energy, a sustainable communities strategy to limit suburban sprawl, a low carbon fuel standard, and energy efficiency. A market-based mechanism to put a price on CO 2 emissions is the cap-and-trade program that allows capped facilities to trade state-issued greenhouse gas emissions allowances. The "cap" limits total greenhouse gas emissions from all covered sources, and declines over time to progressively reduce emissions. An alternative approach is a carbon tax. California's leadership on air quality and climate change mitigation is increasingly important, given the efforts to slow or even reverse implementation of such policies at the U.S. national level.

Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections.

PubMed

Kais, Shaikh Mohammad; Islam, Md Saidul

2016-12-06

In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community's capability of bouncing back-restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward-the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the 'bouncing back' and 'moving forward' properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community's resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1) the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2) emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community's resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions.

Climate resources for field ornithologists: what is climate, what do we know, and why should you care?

Treesearch

Daphne Gemmill

2005-01-01

As the ornithological community has become more aware of natural climate variability (as opposed to weather) impacts on the life histories of birds, especially seabirds, the meteorological community has been advancing our knowledge and predictive capabilities. The latest climate information, however, is slow to transfer to the ornithological community. Climate...

Strong influence of palaeoclimate on the structure of modern African mammal communities.

PubMed

Rowan, John; Kamilar, Jason M; Beaudrot, Lydia; Reed, Kaye E

2016-10-12

Ecological research often assumes that species are adapted to their current climatic environments. However, climate fluctuations over geologic timescales have influenced species dispersal and extinction, which in turn may affect community structure. Modern community structure is likely to be the product of both palaeoclimate and modern climate, with the relative degrees of influence of past and present climates unknown. Here, we assessed the influence of climate at different time periods on the phylogenetic and functional trait structure of 203 African mammal communities. We found that the climate of the mid-Holocene (approx. 6000 years ago) and Last Glacial Maximum (approx. 22 000 years ago) were frequently better predictors of community structure than modern climate for mammals overall, carnivorans and ungulates. Primate communities were more strongly influenced by modern climate than palaeoclimate. Overall, community structure of African mammals appears to be related to the ecological flexibility of the groups considered here and the regions of continental Africa that they occupy. Our results indicate that the future redistribution, expansion and contraction of particular biomes due to human activity, such as climate and land-use change, will differentially affect mammal groups that vary in their sensitivity to environmental change. © 2016 The Author(s).

Climate Voices: Bridging Scientist Citizens and Local Communities across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, K.; Ristvey, J. D., Jr.

2016-12-01

Based out of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) has more than 400 participants across the United States that volunteer their time as scientist citizens in their local communities. Climate Voices experts engage in nonpartisan conversations about the local impacts of climate change with groups such as Rotary clubs, collaborate with faith-based groups on climate action initiatives, and disseminate their research findings to K-12 teachers and classrooms through webinars. To support their participants, Climate Voices develops partnerships with networks of community groups, provides trainings on how to engage these communities, and actively seeks community feedback. In this presentation, we will share case studies of science-community collaborations, including meta-analyses of collaborations and lessons learned.

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Blanchard, Julia L; Jennings, Simon; Holmes, Robert; Harle, James; Merino, Gorka; Allen, J Icarus; Holt, Jason; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Barange, Manuel

2012-11-05

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.; Silva, Claudio

2013-09-30

For the past three years, a large analysis and visualization effort—funded by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—has brought together a wide variety of industry-standard scientific computing libraries and applications to create Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) to serve the global climate simulation and observational research communities. To support interactive analysis and visualization, all components connect through a provenance application–programming interface to capture meaningful history and workflow. Components can be loosely coupled into the framework for fast integrationmore » or tightly coupled for greater system functionality and communication with other components. The overarching goal of UV-CDAT is to provide a new paradigm for access to and analysis of massive, distributed scientific data collections by leveraging distributed data architectures located throughout the world. The UV-CDAT framework addresses challenges in analysis and visualization and incorporates new opportunities, including parallelism for better efficiency, higher speed, and more accurate scientific inferences. Today, it provides more than 600 users access to more analysis and visualization products than any other single source.« less

The response of soil carbon storage and microbially mediated carbon turnover to simulated climatic disturbance in a northern peatland forest. Revisiting the concept of soil organic matter recalcitrance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostka, Joel

The goal of this project was to investigate changes in the structure of dissolved and solid phase organic matter, the production of CO 2 and CH 4, and the composition of decomposer microbial communities in response to the climatic forcing of environmental processes that determine the balance between carbon gas production versus storage and sequestration in peatlands. Cutting-edge analytical chemistry and next generation sequencing of microbial genes were been applied to habitats at the Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF), where the US DOE’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the USDA Forest Service are constructing a large-scale ecosystem study entitled, “Spruce andmore » Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change”(SPRUCE). Our study represented a comprehensive characterization of the sources, transformation, and decomposition of organic matter in the S1 bog at MEF. Multiple lines of evidence point to distinct, vertical zones of organic matter transformation: 1) the acrotelm consisting of living mosses, root material, and newly formed litter (0-30 cm), 2) the mesotelm, a mid-depth transition zone (30-75 cm) characterized by labile organic C compounds and intense decomposition, and 3) the underlying catotelm (below 75cm) characterized by refractory organic compounds as well as relatively low decomposition rates. These zones are in part defined by physical changes in hydraulic conductivity and water table depth. O-alkyl-C, which represents the carbohydrate fraction in the peat, was shown to be an excellent proxy for soil decomposition rates. The carbon cycle in deep peat was shown to be fueled by modern carbon sources further indicating that hydrology and surface vegetation play a role in belowground carbon cycling. We provide the first metagenomic study of an ombrotrophic peat bog, with novel insights into microbial specialization and functions in this unique terrestrial ecosystem. Vertical structuring of microbial communities closely paralleled the chemical evolution of peat, with large shifts in microbial populations occurring in the biogeochemical hotspot, the mesotelm, where the highest rates of decomposition were detected. Stable isotope geochemistry and potential rates of methane production paralleled vertical changes in methanogen community composition to indicate a predominance of acetoclastic methanogenesis mediated by the Methanosarcinales in the mesotelm, while hydrogen-utilizing methanogens dominated in the deeper catotelm. Evidence pointed to the availability of phosphorus as well as nitrogen limiting the microbially-mediated turnover of organic carbon at MEF. Prior to initiation of the experimental treatments, our study provided key baseline data for the SPRUCE site on the vertical stratification of peat decomposition, key enzymatic pathways, and microbial taxa containing these pathways. The sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to climate change is strongly linked to recalcitrant carbon stocks and the temperature sensitivity of decomposition is thought to increase with increasing molecular complexity of carbon substrates. This project delivered results on how climate change perturbations impact the microbially-mediated turnover of recalcitrant organic matter in peatland forest soils, both under controlled conditions in the laboratory and at the ecosystem-scale in the field. This project revisited the concept of “recalcitrance” in the regulation of soil carbon turnover using a combination of natural abundance radiocarbon and optical spectroscopic measurements on bulk DOM, and high resolution molecular characterization of DOM. The project elucidated how organic matter reactivity and decomposition will respond to climate change in a both a qualitative (organic matter lability) and quantitiative (increased rates) manner. An Aromaticity Index was developed to represent a more direct and accurate parameter for modeling of DOM reactivity in peatlands. The abundance and community composition of soil microorganisms that mediate C cycling were interrogated with depth in the peat, with season, and in manipulated climate enclosures at unprecedented resolution. Therefore this project delivered strategic new insights on the functioning of peatland ecosystems that collectively store approximately one-third of the world's soil carbon. Furthermore, results from the detailed characterization of DOM lability and microbial community structure/ function will be employed to further develop biogeochemical models to include microbial respiration pathways as well as to track carbon flow with a term that incorporates relative reactivity based on aromaticity index. As it stands now, detailed soil organic matter structure and microbial parameters are not included in Earth system models.« less

Place Identity, Participation, and Emotional Climate in a Rural Community From the Northern Coast of Peru.

PubMed

Freire, Silvana; Espinosa, Agustín; Rottenbacher, Jan Marc

2015-01-01

Currently, in rural communities from the Peruvian northern coast, it is common to find a climate of distrust and pessimism that accompanies the lack of coordinated social action and community participation among residents. This study analyzes the relationships that people develop with regard to the place where they live in, how it associates to the ways they participate in their community and the relationship that these two variables have with the perceived emotional climate, in a rural community from the northern coast of Peru (n = 81). Results indicate that place identity is significantly associated with a high community participation and a climate of trust in the community. Finally, a Path Analysis is performed to analyze comprehensively the relationship between these variables. The results suggest that place identity does have an influence on perceived positive climate in the community, being mediated by the dimensions of community participation.

Linking Sediment Microbial Communities to Carbon Cycling in High-Latitude Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerson, J. B.; Varner, R. K.; Johnson, J. E.; Owusu-Dommey, A.; Binder, M.; Woodcroft, B. J.; Wik, M.; Freitas, N. L.; Boyd, J. A.; Crill, P. M.; Saleska, S. R.; Tyson, G. W.; Rich, V. I.

2015-12-01

It is well recognized that thawing permafrost peatlands are likely to provide a positive feedback to climate change via CH4 and CO2 emissions. High-latitude lakes in these landscapes have also been identified as sources of CH4 and CO2 loss to the atmosphere. To investigate microbial contributions to carbon loss from high-latitude lakes, we characterized sediment geochemistry and microbiota via cores collected from deep and shallow regions of two lakes (Inre Harrsjön and Mellersta Harrsjön) in Arctic Sweden in July, 2012. These lakes are within the Stordalen Mire long-term ecological area, a focal site for investigating the impacts of climate change-related permafrost thaw, and the lakes in this area are responsible for ~55% of the CH4 loss from this hydrologically interconnected system. Across 40 samples from 4 to 40 cm deep within four sediment cores, Illumina 16S rRNA gene sequencing revealed that the sedimentary microbiota was dominated by candidate phyla OP9 and OP8 (Atribacteria and Aminicenantes, respectively, including putative fermenters and anaerobic respirers), predicted methanotrophic Gammaproteobacteria, and predicted methanogenic archaea from the Thermoplasmata Group E2 clade. We observed some overlap in community structure with nearby peatlands, which tend to be dominated by methanogens and Acidobacteria. Sediment microbial communities differed significantly between lakes, by overlying lake depth (shallow vs. deep), and by depth within a core, with each trend corresponding to parallel differences in biogeochemical measurements. Overall, our results support the potential for significant microbial controls on carbon cycling in high-latitude lakes associated with thawing permafrost, and ongoing metagenomic analyses of focal samples will yield further insight into the functional potential of these microbial communities and their dominant members.

Developing a Hadoop-based Middleware for Handling Multi-dimensional NetCDF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Z.; Yang, C. P.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Lee, T. J.

2014-12-01

Climate observations and model simulations are collecting and generating vast amounts of climate data, and these data are ever-increasing and being accumulated in a rapid speed. Effectively managing and analyzing these data are essential for climate change studies. Hadoop, a distributed storage and processing framework for large data sets, has attracted increasing attentions in dealing with the Big Data challenge. The maturity of Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) of cloud computing further accelerates the adoption of Hadoop in solving Big Data problems. However, Hadoop is designed to process unstructured data such as texts, documents and web pages, and cannot effectively handle the scientific data format such as array-based NetCDF files and other binary data format. In this paper, we propose to build a Hadoop-based middleware for transparently handling big NetCDF data by 1) designing a distributed climate data storage mechanism based on POSIX-enabled parallel file system to enable parallel big data processing with MapReduce, as well as support data access by other systems; 2) modifying the Hadoop framework to transparently processing NetCDF data in parallel without sequencing or converting the data into other file formats, or loading them to HDFS; and 3) seamlessly integrating Hadoop, cloud computing and climate data in a highly scalable and fault-tolerance framework.

Range-wide parallel climate-associated genomic clines in Atlantic salmon

PubMed Central

Stanley, Ryan R. E.; Wringe, Brendan F.; Guijarro-Sabaniel, Javier; Bourret, Vincent; Bernatchez, Louis; Bentzen, Paul; Beiko, Robert G.; Gilbey, John; Clément, Marie; Bradbury, Ian R.

2017-01-01

Clinal variation across replicated environmental gradients can reveal evidence of local adaptation, providing insight into the demographic and evolutionary processes that shape intraspecific diversity. Using 1773 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms we evaluated latitudinal variation in allele frequency for 134 populations of North American and European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). We detected 84 (4.74%) and 195 (11%) loci showing clinal patterns in North America and Europe, respectively, with 12 clinal loci in common between continents. Clinal single nucleotide polymorphisms were evenly distributed across the salmon genome and logistic regression revealed significant associations with latitude and seasonal temperatures, particularly average spring temperature in both continents. Loci displaying parallel clines were associated with several metabolic and immune functions, suggesting a potential basis for climate-associated adaptive differentiation. These climate-based clines collectively suggest evidence of large-scale environmental associated differences on either side of the North Atlantic. Our results support patterns of parallel evolution on both sides of the North Atlantic, with evidence of both similar and divergent underlying genetic architecture. The identification of climate-associated genomic clines illuminates the role of selection and demographic processes on intraspecific diversity in this species and provides a context in which to evaluate the impacts of climate change. PMID:29291123

Progress with lossy compression of data from the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, H.; Baker, A.; Hammerling, D.; Li, S.; Clyne, J.

2017-12-01

Climate models, such as the Community Earth System Model (CESM), generate massive quantities of data, particularly when run at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The burden of storage is further exacerbated by creating large ensembles, generating large numbers of variables, outputting at high frequencies, and duplicating data archives (to protect against disk failures). Applying lossy compression methods to CESM datasets is an attractive means of reducing data storage requirements, but ensuring that the loss of information does not negatively impact science objectives is critical. In particular, test methods are needed to evaluate whether critical features (e.g., extreme values and spatial and temporal gradients) have been preserved and to boost scientists' confidence in the lossy compression process. We will provide an overview on our progress in applying lossy compression to CESM output and describe our unique suite of metric tests that evaluate the impact of information loss. Further, we will describe our processes how to choose an appropriate compression algorithm (and its associated parameters) given the diversity of CESM data (e.g., variables may be constant, smooth, change abruptly, contain missing values, or have large ranges). Traditional compression algorithms, such as those used for images, are not necessarily ideally suited for floating-point climate simulation data, and different methods may have different strengths and be more effective for certain types of variables than others. We will discuss our progress towards our ultimate goal of developing an automated multi-method parallel approach for compression of climate data that both maximizes data reduction and minimizes the impact of data loss on science results.

The Centre of High-Performance Scientific Computing, Geoverbund, ABC/J - Geosciences enabled by HPSC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kollet, Stefan; Görgen, Klaus; Vereecken, Harry; Gasper, Fabian; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Keune, Jessica; Kulkarni, Ketan; Kurtz, Wolfgang; Sharples, Wendy; Shrestha, Prabhakar; Simmer, Clemens; Sulis, Mauro; Vanderborght, Jan

2016-04-01

The Centre of High-Performance Scientific Computing (HPSC TerrSys) was founded 2011 to establish a centre of competence in high-performance scientific computing in terrestrial systems and the geosciences enabling fundamental and applied geoscientific research in the Geoverbund ABC/J (geoscientfic research alliance of the Universities of Aachen, Cologne, Bonn and the Research Centre Jülich, Germany). The specific goals of HPSC TerrSys are to achieve relevance at the national and international level in (i) the development and application of HPSC technologies in the geoscientific community; (ii) student education; (iii) HPSC services and support also to the wider geoscientific community; and in (iv) the industry and public sectors via e.g., useful applications and data products. A key feature of HPSC TerrSys is the Simulation Laboratory Terrestrial Systems, which is located at the Jülich Supercomputing Centre (JSC) and provides extensive capabilities with respect to porting, profiling, tuning and performance monitoring of geoscientific software in JSC's supercomputing environment. We will present a summary of success stories of HPSC applications including integrated terrestrial model development, parallel profiling and its application from watersheds to the continent; massively parallel data assimilation using physics-based models and ensemble methods; quasi-operational terrestrial water and energy monitoring; and convection permitting climate simulations over Europe. The success stories stress the need for a formalized education of students in the application of HPSC technologies in future.

Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

PubMed Central

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-08-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

Decoding the Digital Campus Climate for Prospective LGBTQ+ Community Colleges Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taylor, Jason L.; Dockendorff, Kari J.; Inselman, Kyle

2018-01-01

LGBTQ+ students are increasingly visible on community college campuses, and a safe and welcoming campus climate is critical to LGBTQ+ students' academic success and well-being. Campus climate is difficult to assess for prospective LGBTQ+ community college students, and institutional websites may be a source of information about campus climate.…

On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C.; Tewksbury, Josh J.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.

2012-01-01

Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences. PMID:22217718

Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

PubMed

Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

2015-08-01

Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Scalable Static and Dynamic Community Detection Using Grappolo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halappanavar, Mahantesh; Lu, Hao; Kalyanaraman, Anantharaman

Graph clustering, popularly known as community detection, is a fundamental kernel for several applications of relevance to the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s (DARPA) Hierarchical Identify Verify Exploit (HIVE) Pro- gram. Clusters or communities represent natural divisions within a network that are densely connected within a cluster and sparsely connected to the rest of the network. The need to compute clustering on large scale data necessitates the development of efficient algorithms that can exploit modern architectures that are fundamentally parallel in nature. How- ever, due to their irregular and inherently sequential nature, many of the current algorithms for community detectionmore » are challenging to parallelize. In response to the HIVE Graph Challenge, we present several parallelization heuristics for fast community detection using the Louvain method as the serial template. We implement all the heuristics in a software library called Grappolo. Using the inputs from the HIVE Challenge, we demonstrate superior performance and high quality solutions based on four parallelization heuristics. We use Grappolo on static graphs as the first step towards community detection on streaming graphs.« less

Community Capitals as Community Resilience to Climate Change: Conceptual Connections

PubMed Central

Kais, Shaikh Mohammad; Islam, Md Saidul

2016-01-01

In the last few decades, disaster risk reduction programs and climate initiatives across the globe have focused largely on the intimate connections between vulnerability, recovery, adaptation, and coping mechanisms. Recent focus, however, is increasingly paid to community resilience. Community, placed at the intersection between the household and national levels of social organization, is crucial in addressing economic, social, or environmental disturbances disrupting human security. Resilience measures a community’s capability of bouncing back—restoring the original pre-disaster state, as well as bouncing forward—the capacity to cope with emerging post-disaster situations and changes. Both the ‘bouncing back’ and ‘moving forward’ properties of a community are shaped and reshaped by internal and external shocks such as climate threats, the community’s resilience dimensions, and the intensity of economic, social, and other community capitals. This article reviews (1) the concept of resilience in relation to climate change and vulnerability; and (2) emerging perspectives on community-level impacts of climate change, resilience dimensions, and community capitals. It argues that overall resilience of a place-based community is located at the intersection of the community’s resilience dimensions, community capitals, and the level of climate disruptions. PMID:27929448

Noah’s Ark Conservation Will Not Preserve Threatened Ecological Communities under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

2015-01-01

Background Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. Methods We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Results All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. Conclusions As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term. PMID:25881302

Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.

PubMed

Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

2015-01-01

Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term.

Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

Treesearch

Heather T. Root; Bruce McCune; Sarah Jovan

2014-01-01

Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

Integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology: Model formulation and proof-of-concept simulations

DOE PAGES

Painter, Scott L.; Coon, Ethan T.; Atchley, Adam L.; ...

2016-08-11

The need to understand potential climate impacts and feedbacks in Arctic regions has prompted recent interest in modeling of permafrost dynamics in a warming climate. A new fine-scale integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology modeling capability is described and demonstrated in proof-of-concept simulations. The new modeling capability combines a surface energy balance model with recently developed three-dimensional subsurface thermal hydrology models and new models for nonisothermal surface water flows and snow distribution in the microtopography. Surface water flows are modeled using the diffusion wave equation extended to include energy transport and phase change of ponded water. Variation of snow depth in themore » microtopography, physically the result of wind scour, is also modeled heuristically with a diffusion wave equation. The multiple surface and subsurface processes are implemented by leveraging highly parallel community software. Fully integrated thermal hydrology simulations on the tilted open book catchment, an important test case for integrated surface/subsurface flow modeling, are presented. Fine-scale 100-year projections of the integrated permafrost thermal hydrological system on an ice wedge polygon at Barrow Alaska in a warming climate are also presented. Finally, these simulations demonstrate the feasibility of microtopography-resolving, process-rich simulations as a tool to help understand possible future evolution of the carbon-rich Arctic tundra in a warming climate.« less

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-01-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicts model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures are determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations are the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

PubMed

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

Effects of climate legacies on above- and belowground community assembly.

PubMed

Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Eldridge, David J; Travers, Samantha K; Val, James; Oliver, Ian; Bissett, Andrew

2018-05-11

The role of climatic legacies in regulating community assembly of above- and belowground species in terrestrial ecosystems remains largely unexplored and poorly understood. Here, we report on two separate regional and continental empirical studies, including >500 locations, aiming to identify the relative importance of climatic legacies (climatic anomaly over the last 20,000 years) compared to current climates in predicting the relative abundance of ecological clusters formed by species strongly co-occurring within two independent above- and belowground networks. Climatic legacies explained a significant portion of the variation in the current community assembly of terrestrial ecosystems (up to 15.4%) that could not be accounted for by current climate, soil properties, and management. Changes in the relative abundance of ecological clusters linked to climatic legacies (e.g., past temperature) showed the potential to indirectly alter other clusters, suggesting cascading effects. Our work illustrates the role of climatic legacies in regulating ecosystem community assembly and provides further insights into possible winner and loser community assemblies under global change scenarios. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change in Urban Communities | Urban ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2017-04-10

Climate Change in Urban Communities is a PowerPoint presentation designed to inform urban residents about the impact of climate change, why it's a problem for their communities, and how individual actions can help make a difference as well as save people money.

A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, W. -L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.

2015-05-19

We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version 4; Community Atmosphere Model/Community Land Model – CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation (3-D–PP (plane-parallel)) adjustment to ensure that the energy balance atmore » the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher-elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while it decreases for higher elevations, with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases at higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.

2005-03-18

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Westernmore » Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders discussing the impacts of climate change on land, sea, and other aspects of village life.« less

Changes in biocrust cover drive carbon cycle responses to climate change in drylands.

PubMed

Maestre, Fernando T; Escolar, Cristina; de Guevara, Mónica Ladrón; Quero, José L; Lázaro, Roberto; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Ochoa, Victoria; Berdugo, Miguel; Gozalo, Beatriz; Gallardo, Antonio

2013-12-01

Dryland ecosystems account for ca. 27% of global soil organic carbon (C) reserves, yet it is largely unknown how climate change will impact C cycling and storage in these areas. In drylands, soil C concentrates at the surface, making it particularly sensitive to the activity of organisms inhabiting the soil uppermost levels, such as communities dominated by lichens, mosses, bacteria and fungi (biocrusts). We conducted a full factorial warming and rainfall exclusion experiment at two semiarid sites in Spain to show how an average increase of air temperature of 2-3 °C promoted a drastic reduction in biocrust cover (ca. 44% in 4 years). Warming significantly increased soil CO2 efflux, and reduced soil net CO2 uptake, in biocrust-dominated microsites. Losses of biocrust cover with warming through time were paralleled by increases in recalcitrant C sources, such as aromatic compounds, and in the abundance of fungi relative to bacteria. The dramatic reduction in biocrust cover with warming will lessen the capacity of drylands to sequester atmospheric CO2 . This decrease may act synergistically with other warming-induced effects, such as the increase in soil CO2 efflux and the changes in microbial communities to alter C cycling in drylands, and to reduce soil C stocks in the mid to long term. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Microbial decomposers not constrained by climate history along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California.

PubMed

Baker, Nameer R; Khalili, Banafshe; Martiny, Jennifer B H; Allison, Steven D

2018-06-01

Microbial decomposers mediate the return of CO 2 to the atmosphere by producing extracellular enzymes to degrade complex plant polymers, making plant carbon available for metabolism. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. We analyzed mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzyme activities, and enzyme temperature sensitivities in grassland litter transplanted along a Mediterranean climate gradient in southern California. Microbial community composition was manipulated by caging litter within bags made of nylon membrane that prevent microbial immigration. To test whether grassland microbes were constrained by climate history, half of the bags were inoculated with local microbial communities native to each gradient site. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbial communities were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions across the gradient, although microbial communities across our gradient may be restricted in their ability to degrade different types of litter. We did find some evidence that local microbial communities were optimized based on climate, but local microbial taxa that proliferated after inoculation into litterbags did not enhance litter decomposition. Our results suggest that microbial community composition does not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system, but optimization to particular resource environments may act as more general constraints on microbial communities. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Public Understanding of Climate Change: Certainty and Willingness To Act.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fortner, Rosanne W.; Lee, Jae-Young; Corney, Jeffrey R.; Romanello, Samantha; Bonnell, Joseph; Luthy, Brian; Figuerido, Claudia; Ntsiko, Nyathi

2000-01-01

Describes two parallel studies conducted shortly before the Kyoto conference on climate change: (1) an examination of media portrayals of global warming and the certainty with which information was reported; and (2) a telephone survey to assess public knowledge and attitudes about global climate change. Findings do not support a hypothesis that…

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON DISEASE IMBEDDED IN ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES

EPA Science Inventory

We present the techniques of qualitative analysis of complex communities and discuss the impact of climate change as a press perturbation. In particular, we focus on the difficult problem of disease and parasites embedded in animal communities, notably zoonotic diseases. Climate ...

Building community resilience to climate change through public health planning.

PubMed

Bajayo, Rachael

2012-04-01

Nillumbik Shire Council, in partnership with La Trobe University, used the Municipal Public Health Planning process to develop an approach for building the resilience of local communities to climate-related stressors. The objective was to define an approach for building community resilience to climate change and to integrate this approach with the 'Environments for Health' framework. Key published papers and reports by leading experts the field were reviewed. Literature was selected based on its relevance to the subjects of community resilience and climate change and was derived from local and international publications, the vast majority published within the past two decades. Review of literature on community resilience revealed that four principal resource sets contribute to the capacity of communities to adapt in times of stress, these being: economic development; social capital; information and communication; and community competence. On the strength of findings, a framework for building each resilience resource set within each of the Environments for Health was constructed. This paper introduces the newly constructed 'Community Resilience Framework', which describes how each one of the four resilience resource sets can be developed within social, built, natural and economic environments. The Community Resilience Framework defines an approach for simultaneously creating supportive environments for health and increasing community capacity for adaptation to climate-related stressors. As such, it can be used by Municipal Public Health Planners as a guide in building community resilience to climate change.

Building Climate Literacy Through Strategic Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrin, M.; Creyts, T. T.; Bell, R. E.; Meadows, C. A.

2012-12-01

One of the challenges of developing climate science literacy is establishing the relevance of both climate science and climate change at a local community level. By developing partnerships with community-based informal science education providers, we are able to build our climate science and climate change content into existing programs. Employing a systems science approach facilitates these partnerships as our systems science program links with a range of topics, demonstrating the multiple connections between climate, our communities and our daily lives. Merging hands on activities, collaborative projects, and new technology, we encourage learning through doing by engaging participants in active exploration of climate science concepts. Many informal education venues operating locally, from large science museums to small grass-roots community groups, provide ongoing opportunities to connect with students. Through our collaborations we have worked with various types and sizes of non-classroom science providers including: the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum "Greater Opportunities Advancing Leadership and Science" camps for high school girls, Hudson River Park Trust 'Science on the River' events, the annual New York City World Science Festival, and the AAUW's annual STEM Super Scholars Workshops among others. This range of venues has enabled us to reach various ages, backgrounds and interests advancing climate literacy in a number of forums. Major outcomes of these efforts are: (1) Building capacity with community groups: Many local organizations running community programs do not have in-house science expertise. Both science educators and local organization benefit from these collaborations. Science educators and scientists provide up to date climate science information to the community groups while these programs establish strong working relationships between our research and the local community. (2) Developing climate science literacy and lifelong learning: We have delivered climate science in a variety of ways, each designed to connect the participants with a fundamental science concept while building excitement for the topic and facilitating learning in a non-traditional setting. Our approaches range from launching teams of young people into experiments exploring glacial physics through free-choice inquiry opportunities, to enlisting undergraduate science students in working with the participants demonstrating glacial motion and measurement through engaging technology such as Kinect Xbox 360 sensors, to short single concept hands-on activities designed to deliver a specific climate 'take home' message. (3) Generating a local connection to climate science and impacts: Working with local informal education groups we connect climate topics to community-based issues and 'hot topics' such as sustainable planning, waterfront erosion, storm surge impacts, and local sea level rise projections. Partnering with community based informal education providers allows us to expand our offerings to reach a wider audience of young people, and to connect more directly with our local community. We are excited by the potential in these partnerships to connect students with climate science and develop not only a climate literate group of young people, but also lifelong science learners.

Response-Guided Community Detection: Application to Climate Index Discovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bello, Gonzalo; Angus, Michael; Pedemane, Navya

Discovering climate indices-time series that summarize spatiotemporal climate patterns-is a key task in the climate science domain. In this work, we approach this task as a problem of response-guided community detection; that is, identifying communities in a graph associated with a response variable of interest. To this end, we propose a general strategy for response-guided community detection that explicitly incorporates information of the response variable during the community detection process, and introduce a graph representation of spatiotemporal data that leverages information from multiple variables. We apply our proposed methodology to the discovery of climate indices associated with seasonal rainfall variability.more » Our results suggest that our methodology is able to capture the underlying patterns known to be associated with the response variable of interest and to improve its predictability compared to existing methodologies for data-driven climate index discovery and official forecasts.« less

Parallel Climate Data Assimilation PSAS Package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ding, Hong Q.; Chan, Clara; Gennery, Donald B.; Ferraro, Robert D.

1996-01-01

We have designed and implemented a set of highly efficient and highly scalable algorithms for an unstructured computational package, the PSAS data assimilation package, as demonstrated by detailed performance analysis of systematic runs on up to 512node Intel Paragon. The equation solver achieves a sustained 18 Gflops performance. As the results, we achieved an unprecedented 100-fold solution time reduction on the Intel Paragon parallel platform over the Cray C90. This not only meets and exceeds the DAO time requirements, but also significantly enlarges the window of exploration in climate data assimilations.

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

A feasibility study on porting the community land model onto accelerators using OpenACC

DOE PAGES

Wang, Dali; Wu, Wei; Winkler, Frank; ...

2014-01-01

As environmental models (such as Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME), Parallel Reactive Flow and Transport Model (PFLOTRAN), Arctic Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), etc.) became more and more complicated, we are facing enormous challenges regarding to porting those applications onto hybrid computing architecture. OpenACC appears as a very promising technology, therefore, we have conducted a feasibility analysis on porting the Community Land Model (CLM), a terrestrial ecosystem model within the Community Earth System Models (CESM)). Specifically, we used automatic function testing platform to extract a small computing kernel out of CLM, then we apply this kernel into the actually CLM dataflowmore » procedure, and investigate the strategy of data parallelization and the benefit of data movement provided by current implementation of OpenACC. Even it is a non-intensive kernel, on a single 16-core computing node, the performance (based on the actual computation time using one GPU) of OpenACC implementation is 2.3 time faster than that of OpenMP implementation using single OpenMP thread, but it is 2.8 times slower than the performance of OpenMP implementation using 16 threads. On multiple nodes, MPI_OpenACC implementation demonstrated very good scalability on up to 128 GPUs on 128 computing nodes. This study also provides useful information for us to look into the potential benefits of “deep copy” capability and “routine” feature of OpenACC standards. In conclusion, we believe that our experience on the environmental model, CLM, can be beneficial to many other scientific research programs who are interested to porting their large scale scientific code using OpenACC onto high-end computers, empowered by hybrid computing architecture.« less

Collaborative Project: Understanding Climate Model Biases in Tropical Atlantic and Their Impact on Simulations of Extreme Climate Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Ping

Recent studies have revealed that among all the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic has experienced the most pronounced warming trend over the 20th century. Many extreme climate events affecting the U.S., such as hurricanes, severe precipitation and drought events, are influenced by conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. It is therefore imperative to have accurate simulations of the climatic mean and variability in the Atlantic region to be able to make credible projections of future climate change affecting the U.S. and other countries adjoining the Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, almost all global climate models exhibit large biasesmore » in their simulations of tropical Atlantic climate. The atmospheric convection simulation errors in the Amazon region and the associated errors in the trade wind simulations are hypothesized to be a leading cause of the tropical Atlantic biases in climate models. As global climate models have resolutions that are too coarse to resolve some of the atmospheric and oceanic processes responsible for the model biases, we propose to use a high-resolution coupled regional climate model (CRCM) framework to address the tropical bias issue. We propose to combine the expertise in tropical coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling at Texas A&M University (TAMU) and the coupled land-atmosphere modeling expertise at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a comprehensive CRCM for the Atlantic sector within a general and flexible modeling framework. The atmospheric component of the CRCM will be the NCAR WRF model and the oceanic component will be the Rutgers/UCLA ROMS. For the land component, we will use CLM modified at PNNL to include more detailed representations of vegetation and soil hydrology processes. The combined TAMU-PNNL CRCM model will be used to simulate the Atlantic climate, and the associated land-atmosphere-ocean interactions at a horizontal resolution of 9 km or finer. A particular focus of the model development effort will be to optimize the performance of WRF and ROMS over several thousand of cores by focusing on both the parallel communication libraries and the I/O interfaces, in order to achieve the sustained throughput needed to perform simulations on such fine resolution grids. The CRCM model will be developed within the framework of the Coupler (CPL7) software that is part of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). Through efforts at PNNL and within the community, WRF and CLM have already been coupled via CPL7. Using the flux coupler approach for the whole CRCM model will allow us to flexibly couple WRF, ROMS, and CLM with each model running on its own grid at different resolutions. In addition, this framework will allow us to easily port parameterizations between CESM and the CRCM, and potentially allow partial coupling between the CESM and the CRCM. TAMU and PNNL will contribute cooperatively to this research endeavor. The TAMU team led by Chang and Saravanan has considerable experience in studying atmosphere-ocean interactions within tropical Atlantic sector and will focus on modeling issues that relate to coupling WRF and ROMS. The PNNL team led by Leung has extensive expertise in atmosphere-land interaction and will be responsible for improving the land surface parameterization. Both teams will jointly work on integrating WRF-ROMS and WRF-CLM to couple WRF, ROMS, and CLM through CPL7. Montuoro of the TAMU Supercomputing Center will be responsible for improving the MPI and Parallel IO interfaces of the CRCM. Both teams will contribute to the design and execution of the proposed numerical experiments and jointly perform analysis of the numerical experiments.« less

Probing metabolic processes of intact soil microbial communities using position-specific 13C-labeled glucose

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fairbanks, D. E.; Hungate, B. A.; KOCH, G. W.; Schwartz, E.; Dijkstra, P.

2012-12-01

Soils represent one of the largest carbon pools in the terrestrial biosphere and fluxes into or out of this pool may feedback to current climate change. Understanding the mechanisms behind microbial processes regulating C cycling, microbial turnover, and soil organic matter stabilization is hindered by our lack of understanding of the details of microbial physiology in soils. Position-specific 13C labeled metabolic tracers are proposed as a new way to probe microbial community energy production, biosynthesis, C use efficiency (the proportion of substrate incorporated into microbial biomass), and enables the determination of C fluxes through the various C metabolic pathways. We determined the 13CO2 production from microbial communities within a one hour time frame by adding six isotopomers (1-13C, 2-13C, 3-13C, 4-13C, 5-13C, 6-13C) of glucose in parallel incubations using a young volcanic soil (Pinyon-juniper wood, near Sunset Crater, Flagstaff, Arizona). We compared the measured rates of position-specific 13CO2 production with modeled results based on glucose (1-13C and U-13C) and pyruvate (1-13C and 2,3-13C) incubations. These labeling and modeling techniques may improve our ability to analyze the biochemistry and ecophysiology of intact soil microbial communities.

Life on thin ice: Insights from Uummannaq, Greenland for connecting climate science with Arctic communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baztan, Juan; Cordier, Mateo; Huctin, Jean-Michel; Zhu, Zhiwei; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-09-01

What are the links between mainstream climate science and local community knowledge? This study takes the example of Greenland, considered one of the regions most impacted by climate change, and Inuit people, characterized as being highly adaptive to environmental change, to explore this question. The study is based on 10 years of anthropological participatory research in Uummannaq, Northwest Greenland, along with two fieldwork periods in October 2014 and April 2015, and a quantitative bibliometric analysis of the international literature on sea ice - a central subject of concern identified by Uummannaq community members during the fieldwork periods. Community members' perceptions of currently available scientific climate knowledge were also collected during the fieldwork. This was done to determine if community members consider available scientific knowledge salient and if it covers issues they consider relevant. The bibliometric analysis of the sea ice literature provided additional insight into the degree to which scientific knowledge about climate change provides information relevant for the community. Our results contribute to the ongoing debate on the missing connections between community worldviews, cultural values, livelihood needs, interests and climate science. Our results show that more scientific research efforts should consider local-level needs in order to produce local-scale knowledge that is more salient, credible and legitimate for communities experiencing climate change. In Uummannaq, as in many Inuit communities with similar conditions, more research should be done on sea ice thickness in winter and in areas through which local populations travel. This paper supports the growing evidence that whenever possible, climate change research should focus on environmental features that matter to communities, at temporal and spatial scales relevant to them, in order to foster community adaptations to change. We recommend such research be connected to and co-constructed with local communities to ensure their needs and values are integrated into the research process and outputs.

Deglacial palaeoclimate at Puerto del Hambre, subantarctic Patagonia, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heusser, Calvin J.; Heusser, Linda E.; Lowell, Thomas V.; Moreira M., Andrés; Moreira M., Simón

2000-02-01

The primary objective of this study is to further substantiate multistep climatic forcing of late-glacial vegetation in southern South America. A secondary objective is to establish the age of deglaciation in Estrecho de Magallanes-Bahía Inútil. Pollen assemblages at 2-cm intervals in a core of the mire at Puerto del Hambre (53°3621S, 70°5553W) provide the basis for reconstructing the vegetation and a detailed account of palaeoclimate in subantarctic Patagonia. Chronology over the 262-cm length of core is regulated by 20 AMS radiocarbon dates between 14 455 and 10 089 14C yr BP. Of 13 pollen assemblage zones, the earliest representing the Oldest Dryas chronozone (14 455-13 000 14C yr BP) records impoverished steppe with decreasing frequencies and loss of southern beech (Nothofagus). Successive 100-yr-long episodes of grass/herbs and of heath (Empetrum/Ericaceae) before 14 000 14C yr BP infer deglacial successional communities under a climate of increased continentality prior to the establishment of grass-dominated steppe. The Bølling-Allerød (13 000-11 000 14C yr BP) is characterised by mesic grassland under moderating climate that with abrupt change to heath dominance after 12 000 14C yr BP was warmer and not as humid. At the time of the Younger Dryas (11 000-10 000 14C yr BP), grass steppe expanded with a return of colder, more humid climate. Later, with gradual warming, communities were invaded by southern beech. The Puerto del Hambre record parallels multistep, deglacial palaeoclimatic sequences reported elsewhere in the Southern Andes and at Taylor Dome in Antarctica. Deglaciation of Estrecho de Magallanes-Bahía Inútil is dated close to 14 455 14C yr BP, invalidating earlier dates of between 15 800 and 16 590 14C yr BP.

Indigenous community health and climate change: integrating biophysical and social science indicators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donatuto, Jamie; Grossman, Eric E.; Konovsky, John; Grossman, Sarah; Campbell, Larry W.

2014-01-01

This article describes a pilot study evaluating the sensitivity of Indigenous community health to climate change impacts on Salish Sea shorelines (Washington State, United States and British Columbia, Canada). Current climate change assessments omit key community health concerns, which are vital to successful adaptation plans, particularly for Indigenous communities. Descriptive scaling techniques, employed in facilitated workshops with two Indigenous communities, tested the efficacy of ranking six key indicators of community health in relation to projected impacts to shellfish habitat and shoreline archaeological sites stemming from changes in the biophysical environment. Findings demonstrate that: when shellfish habitat and archaeological resources are impacted, so is Indigenous community health; not all community health indicators are equally impacted; and, the community health indicators of highest concern are not necessarily the same indicators most likely to be impacted. Based on the findings and feedback from community participants, exploratory trials were successful; Indigenous-specific health indicators may be useful to Indigenous communities who are assessing climate change sensitivities and creating adaptation plans.

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

PubMed

Nielsen, Uffe N; Wall, Diana H

2013-03-01

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty-first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non-native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non-native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought

PubMed Central

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-01

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987–2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change–driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage. PMID:21220333

Widespread crown condition decline, food web disruption, and amplified tree mortality with increased climate change-type drought.

PubMed

Carnicer, Jofre; Coll, Marta; Ninyerola, Miquel; Pons, Xavier; Sánchez, Gerardo; Peñuelas, Josep

2011-01-25

Climate change is progressively increasing severe drought events in the Northern Hemisphere, causing regional tree die-off events and contributing to the global reduction of the carbon sink efficiency of forests. There is a critical lack of integrated community-wide assessments of drought-induced responses in forests at the macroecological scale, including defoliation, mortality, and food web responses. Here we report a generalized increase in crown defoliation in southern European forests occurring during 1987-2007. Forest tree species have consistently and significantly altered their crown leaf structures, with increased percentages of defoliation in the drier parts of their distributions in response to increased water deficit. We assessed the demographic responses of trees associated with increased defoliation in southern European forests, specifically in the Iberian Peninsula region. We found that defoliation trends are paralleled by significant increases in tree mortality rates in drier areas that are related to tree density and temperature effects. Furthermore, we show that severe drought impacts are associated with sudden changes in insect and fungal defoliation dynamics, creating long-term disruptive effects of drought on food webs. Our results reveal a complex geographical mosaic of species-specific responses to climate change-driven drought pressures on the Iberian Peninsula, with an overwhelmingly predominant trend toward increased drought damage.

Test Driven Development of a Parameterized Ice Sheet Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clune, T.

2011-12-01

Test driven development (TDD) is a software development methodology that offers many advantages over traditional approaches including reduced development and maintenance costs, improved reliability, and superior design quality. Although TDD is widely accepted in many software communities, the suitability to scientific software is largely undemonstrated and warrants a degree of skepticism. Indeed, numerical algorithms pose several challenges to unit testing in general, and TDD in particular. Among these challenges are the need to have simple, non-redundant closed-form expressions to compare against the results obtained from the implementation as well as realistic error estimates. The necessity for serial and parallel performance raises additional concerns for many scientific applicaitons. In previous work I demonstrated that TDD performed well for the development of a relatively simple numerical model that simulates the growth of snowflakes, but the results were anecdotal and of limited relevance to far more complex software components typical of climate models. This investigation has now been extended by successfully applying TDD to the implementation of a substantial portion of a new parameterized ice sheet component within a full climate model. After a brief introduction to TDD, I will present techniques that address some of the obstacles encountered with numerical algorithms. I will conclude with some quantitative and qualitative comparisons against climate components developed in a more traditional manner.

Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

2014-12-01

In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

Subfossil remains of Pediastrum - a tool to obtain palaeolimnological information parallel to pollen analysis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, F.; Zhu, L.; Ma, Q.; Peng, P.; Lü, X.

2014-12-01

It has been a long-time goal of palynologists to obtain additionally palaeoenvironmental information by the study of Quaternary non-pollen-palynomorphs (NPPs) in pollen slides. As a group of NPPs, subfossil remains of green algae of the genus Pediastrum (fam. Hydrodictyaceae) are frequently found in lake sediments and withstand the palynological standard preparation methods. Determination of Pediastrum taxa to subspecies level is relatively easy with a standard light microscope. Very few studies, however, have used them as palaeolimnological indicators and the knowledge on recent distribution and ecology of many taxa is limited. Introducing new data from Northwestern Europe and the Tibetan Plateau, we show that analysis of subfossil Pediastrum assemblages can reveal valuable information on limnological and climate parameters. Shifts in taxonomic composition of Pediastrum assemblages from lake sediments in northern Germany are shown to strongly reflect the Northern Atlantic Late Glacial climate oscillations. In contrast to previous studies that recognized trophic state as the main driver of change in Pediastrum species composition, we identify climate shifts and related factors as the major drivers of community change. Water depth and trophic state probably acted as secondary factors only. Ongoing research compares the composition of Pediastrum assemblages in surface sediments of Tibetan lakes to environmental variables. While Pediastrum algae are shown to be a part of phytoplankton communities in freshwater to mesosaline lakes, shifts in species composition along the salinity gradient indicate the possible use of the algae group as palaeobioindicator for past humidity changes on the Tibetan Plateau. Additionally, investigations on the relation between water depth and the Pediastrum species composition in lake Taro Co (4575 m asl.) are presented. Our results suggest this algae group has great potential for enabling environmental inferences.

Annual plants change in size over a century of observations.

PubMed

Leger, Elizabeth A

2013-07-01

Studies have documented changes in animal body sizes over the last century, but very little is known about changes in plant sizes, even though reduced plant productivity is potentially responsible for declines in size of other organisms. Here, I ask whether warming trends in the Great Basin have affected plant size by measuring specimens preserved on herbarium sheets collected between 1893 and 2011. I asked how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the year of collection affected plant height, leaf size, and flower number, and asked whether changes in climate resulted in decreasing sizes for seven annual forbs. Species had contrasting responses to climate factors, and would not necessarily be expected to respond in parallel to climatic shifts. There were generally positive relationships between plant size and increased minimum and maximum temperatures, which would have been predicted to lead to small increases in plant sizes over the observation period. While one species increased in size and flower number over the observation period, five of the seven species decreased in plant height, four of these decreased in leaf size, and one species also decreased in flower production. One species showed no change. The mechanisms behind these size changes are unknown, and the limited data available on these species (germination timing, area of occupancy, relative abundance) did not explain why some species shrank while others grew or did not change in size over time. These results show that multiple annual forbs are decreasing in size, but that even within the same functional group, species may have contrasting responses to similar environmental stimuli. Changes in plant size could have cascading effects on other members of these communities, and differential responses to directional change may change the composition of plant communities over time. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Can trait patterns along gradients predict plant community responses to climate change?

PubMed

Guittar, John; Goldberg, Deborah; Klanderud, Kari; Telford, Richard J; Vandvik, Vigdis

2016-10-01

Plant functional traits vary consistently along climate gradients and are therefore potential predictors of plant community response to climate change. We test this space-for-time assumption by combining a spatial gradient study with whole-community turf transplantation along temperature and precipitation gradients in a network of 12 grassland sites in Southern Norway. Using data on eight traits for 169 species and annual vegetation censuses of 235 turfs over 5 yr, we quantify trait-based responses to climate change by comparing observed community dynamics in transplanted turfs to field-parameterized null model simulations. Three traits related to species architecture (maximum height, number of dormant meristems, and ramet-ramet connection persistence) varied consistently along spatial temperature gradients and also correlated to changes in species abundances in turfs transplanted to warmer climates. Two traits associated with resource acquisition strategy (SLA, leaf area) increased along spatial temperature gradients but did not correlate to changes in species abundances following warming. No traits correlated consistently with precipitation. Our study supports the hypothesis that spatial associations between plant traits and broad-scale climate variables can be predictive of community response to climate change, but it also suggests that not all traits with clear patterns along climate gradients will necessarily influence community response to an equal degree. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

A systematic approach to community resilience that reduces the federal fiscal exposure to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stwertka, C.; Albert, M. R.; White, K. D.

2016-12-01

Despite widely available information about the adverse impacts of climate change to the public, including both private sector and federal fiscal exposure, there remain opportunities to effectively translate this knowledge into action. Further delay of climate preparedness and resilience actions imposes a growing toll on American communities and the United States fiscal budget. We hypothesize that a set of four criteria must be met before a community can translate climate disturbances into preparedness action. We examine four case studies to review these proposed criteria, we discuss the critical success factors that can build community resilience, and we define an operational strategy that could support community resilience while reducing the federal fiscal exposure to climate change. This operational strategy defines a community response system that integrates social science research, builds on the strengths of different sectors, values existing resources, and reduces the planning-to-action time. Our next steps are to apply this solution in the field, and to study the dynamics of community engagement and the circular economy.

Engaging Communities Where They Are: New Hampshire's Coastal Adaptation Workgroup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C. P.; Godlewski, S.; Howard, K.; Labranche, J.; Miller, S.; Peterson, J.; Ashcraft, C.

2015-12-01

Rising seas are expected to have significant impacts on infrastructure and natural and cultural resources on New Hampshire's 18 mile open-ocean coastline and 235 miles of tidal shoreline. However, most coastal municipalities in NH lack financial and human resources to even assess vulnerability, let alone plan for climate change. This gap has been filled since 2010 by the NH Coastal Adaptation Workgroup (CAW), composed of 21 regional, state, and federal agencies, businesses, municipalities, academics, and NGOs that bring together stakeholders to discuss climate change challenges and collaboratively develop and implement effective coastal adaptation strategies. Our grassroot efforts serve to nurture existing and build new relationships, disseminate coastal watershed climate assessments, and tap into state, federal, and foundation funds for specific coastal adaptation projects. CAW has achieved collective impact in by connecting federal and state resources to communities by raising money and facilitating projects, translating climate science, educating community members, providing direct technical assistance and general capacity, and sharing success stories and lessons learned. Indicators of success include: 12 coastal communities improved their technical, financial, and human resources for climate adaptation; 80% of the 300 participants in the eleven CAW 'Water, Weather, Climate, and Community Workshops' have increased knowledge, motivation, and capacity to address climate adaptation; $3 million in grants to help communities with climate adaptation; winner of the 2015 EPA Region 1 Environmental Merit Award; and ongoing support for community-led adaptation efforts. In addition, the NH Climate Summit attracts over 100 participants each year, over 90% whom attest to the applicability of what they learn there. CAW also plays a central role in the Coastal Risks and Hazards Commission (established by the state legislature in 2013) to help communities and businesses prepare for the impacts of rising seas and coastal storms.

Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

2013-01-01

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

Grasstops and Grassroots Approaches to Building Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBeau, A.; Bader, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change and extreme weather events pose complex risks to cities all over the world, impacting not only the built environment, but also social infrastructure. Because urban communities are culturally and socioeconomically diverse, as well as systemically complicated, climate change and extreme weather events will impact people differently even within a single city—not only because of where they live, but also because of who they are. The City of Long Beach, California, is in its very early stages of understanding its vulnerabilities. However, city leaders and community partners including the Aquarium of the Pacific are committed to creating a model climate resilient city. Climate change risks most relevant to Long Beach include drought (and freshwater shortages), extreme heat, sea level rise, and poor air quality. Over the past 18 months, the Aquarium of the Pacific has been testing elements of a broad-reaching education strategy to reach community stakeholders. Two multi-level approaches are designed to build awareness and momentum for climate resilience. A grassroots approach, called RESILIENT LB, focuses on an interactive outreach booth that travels to community events. The booth is staffed by educators with specific training on climate communication. Facilitated conversations help people identify what they love about Long Beach and immediate impacts that climate change will have on the things they value. A second, complimentary approach involves long-term community engagement through a grasstops-to-grassroots approach. Aquarium educators have been facilitating different climate resilience workshops for leaders from a variety of groups across Long Beach. These workshops give leaders the chance to reflect on how their communities may be impacted by climate change, and highlight adaptation (rather than mitigation) to climate change. In this session, we will share how these programs have evolved, lessons learned, and areas of growth.

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Connecting Alaskan Youth, Elders, and Scientists in Climate Change Research and Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spellman, K.; Sparrow, E.

2017-12-01

Integrated science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) solutions and effective, relevant learning processes are required to address the challenges that a changing climate presents to many Arctic communities. Learning that can both enhance a community's understanding and generate new knowledge about climate change impacts at both local and continental scales are needed to efficiently build the capacity to navigate these changes. The Arctic and Earth STEM Integrating GLOBE and NASA (SIGNs) program is developing a learning model to engage Alaskan rural and indigenous communities in climate change learning, research and action. Youth, elders, educators, community leaders and scientists collaborate to address a pressing local climate change concern. The program trains teams of educators and long-time community members on climate change concepts and environmental observing protocols in face-to-face or online workshops together with Arctic and NASA subject matter experts. Community teams return to their community to identify local data or information needs that align with their student's interests and the observations of local elders. They deepen their understanding of the subject through culturally responsive curriculum materials, and collaborate with a scientist to develop an investigation with their students to address the identified need. Youth make observations using GLOBE (Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment) protocols that best fit the issue, analyze the data they have collected, and utilize indigenous or knowledge, and NASA data to address the issue. The use of GLOBE protocols allow for communities to engage in climate change research at both local and global scales, as over 110 nations worldwide are using these standardized protocols. Teams work to communicate their investigation results back to their community and other scientists, and apply their results to local stewardship action or climate adaptation projects. In this presentation, we report the progress of community teams currently engaged in this program from throughout Alaska.

Archaeobotanical evidence for climate as a driver of ecological community change across the anthropocene boundary.

PubMed

Ellis, Christopher J; Yahr, Rebecca; Belinchón, Rocío; Coppins, Brian J

2014-07-01

The biodiversity response to climate change is a major focus in conservation research and policy. Predictive models that are used to project the impact of climate change scenarios - such as bioclimatic envelope models - are widely applied and have come under severe scrutiny. Criticisms of such models have focussed on at least two problems. First, there is an assumption that climate is the primary driver of observed species distributions ('climatic equilibrium'), when other biogeographical controls are often reliably established. Second, a species' sensitivity to macroclimate may become less relevant when impacts are down-scaled to a local level, incorporating a modifying effect of species interactions structuring communities. This article examines the role of different drivers (climate, pollution and landscape habitat structure) in explaining spatial community variation for a widely applied bioindicator group: lichen epiphytes. To provide an analysis free of 'legacy effects' (e.g. formerly higher pollution loads), the study focused on hazel stems as a relatively short-lived and recently colonized substratum. For communities during the present day, climate is shown to interact with stem size/age as the most likely explanation of community composition, thus coupling a macroclimatic and community-scale effect. The position of present-day communities was projected into ordination space for eight sites in England and compared to the position of historical epiphyte communities from the same sites, reconstructed using preserved hazel wattles dating mainly to the 16th Century. This comparison of community structure for the late- to post-Mediaeval period, with the post-Industrial period, demonstrated a consistent shift among independent sites towards warmer and drier conditions, concurrent with the end of the Little Ice Age. Long-term temporal sensitivity of epiphyte communities to climate variation thus complements spatial community patterns. If more widely applied, preserved lichen epiphytes have potential to generate new baseline conditions of environment and biodiversity for preindustrial lowland Europe. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Rural health service managers' perspectives on preparing rural health services for climate change.

PubMed

Purcell, Rachael; McGirr, Joe

2018-02-01

To determine health service managers' (HSMs) recommendations on strengthening the health service response to climate change. Self-administered survey in paper or electronic format. Rural south-west of New South Wales. Health service managers working in rural remote metropolitan areas 3-7. Proportion of respondents identifying preferred strategies for preparation of rural health services for climate change. There were 43 participants (53% response rate). Most respondents agreed that there is scepticism regarding climate change among health professionals (70%, n = 30) and community members (72%, n = 31). Over 90% thought that climate change would impact the health of rural populations in the future with regard to heat-related illnesses, mental health, skin cancer and water security. Health professionals and government were identified as having key leadership roles on climate change and health in rural communities. Over 90% of the respondents believed that staff and community in local health districts (LHDs) should be educated about the health impacts of climate change. Public health education facilitated by State or Federal Government was the preferred method of educating community members, and education facilitated by the LHD was the preferred method for educating health professionals. Health service managers hold important health leadership roles within rural communities and their health services. The study highlights the scepticism towards climate change among health professionals and community members in rural Australia. It identifies the important role of rural health services in education and advocacy on the health impacts of climate change and identifies recommended methods of public health education for community members and health professionals. © 2017 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

Is parallel trade in medicines compatible with the single European market?

PubMed

Senior, I

1992-01-01

For many years the varying methods of price control of medicines by national governments in the European Community (and elsewhere) have resulted in wide variations in prices. Parallel traders buy products in low pricing Community countries and sell them, generally relabelled or repackaged, in high pricing Community countries. This practice diverts sales revenue and profits from the manufacturers to the traders, distributors, pharmacists and, in some measure, to the sickness funds and to some patients. While parallel trade appeals to those who gain financially, its basis is a market distortion that poses a significant threat to the future of the research-based pharmaceutical industry.

Climate Watch and Spoonbill Watch: Engaging Communities in Climate Science and Bird Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, N. L.; Baker, R.; Bergstrom, E.; Cox, D.; Cox, G.; Dale, K.; Jensen, C.; Langham, G.; LeBaron, G.; Loftus, W.; Rowden, J.; Slavin, Z.; Smithson-Stanley, L.; Wilsey, C.

2016-12-01

Climate change poses serious challenges for conservation scientists and policymakers. Yet with these challenges come equally great opportunities to engage communities of concerned citizens in climate science and conservation. National Audubon Society's 2014 Birds and Climate Change report found that 314 North American bird species could lose over half their breeding or wintering ranges by 2080 due to climate change. Consequently, in 2016 Audubon developed two new crowd-sourced science programs that mobilized existing birding communities (i.e., Audubon Society chapters) in partnership with scientists to evaluate climate change effects on birds, and take action to protect vulnerable populations. Climate Watch expands upon traditional monitoring programs by involving citizen scientists in hypothesis-driven science, testing predictions of climate-driven range expansion in bluebirds developed by National Audubon Society scientists. Spoonbill Watch is a partnership between an Audubon research scientist and the Pelican Island Audubon Society community, in which citizen scientists monitor a Roseate Spoonbill colony recently established in response to changing habitat and climatic conditions. Additionally, Spoonbill Watch participants and leaders have moved beyond monitoring to take action to protect the colony, by working with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission towards getting the site declared as a Critical Wildlife Area and by conducting local outreach and education efforts. We will present overviews, lessons learned, and conservation goals and opportunities achieved during the pilot year of Climate Watch and Spoonbill Watch. Scientific - community partnerships such as these are essential to confront the threats posed by climate change.

Using Education to Bring Climate Change Adaptation to Pacific Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vize, Sue

2012-01-01

Traditional communities remain a dominant feature in the Pacific and are key players in land and sea management. Fostering improved climate literacy is therefore essential to equip communities to respond to the current and future challenges posed by climate change in the region. Increased understanding and development of skills to respond to the…

The Parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliott, Joshua; Kelly, David; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Glotter, Michael; Jhunjhnuwala, Kanika; Best, Neil; Wilde, Michael; Foster, Ian

2014-01-01

We present a framework for massively parallel climate impact simulations: the parallel System for Integrating Impact Models and Sectors (pSIMS). This framework comprises a) tools for ingesting and converting large amounts of data to a versatile datatype based on a common geospatial grid; b) tools for translating this datatype into custom formats for site-based models; c) a scalable parallel framework for performing large ensemble simulations, using any one of a number of different impacts models, on clusters, supercomputers, distributed grids, or clouds; d) tools and data standards for reformatting outputs to common datatypes for analysis and visualization; and e) methodologies for aggregating these datatypes to arbitrary spatial scales such as administrative and environmental demarcations. By automating many time-consuming and error-prone aspects of large-scale climate impacts studies, pSIMS accelerates computational research, encourages model intercomparison, and enhances reproducibility of simulation results. We present the pSIMS design and use example assessments to demonstrate its multi-model, multi-scale, and multi-sector versatility.

Parallel Education and Defining the Fourth Sector.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chessell, Diana

1996-01-01

Parallel to the primary, secondary, postsecondary, and adult/community education sectors is education not associated with formal programs--learning in arts and cultural sites. The emergence of cultural and educational tourism is an opportunity for adult/community education to define itself by extending lifelong learning opportunities into parallel…

Parallel computing of a climate model on the dawn 1000 by domain decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bi, Xunqiang

1997-12-01

In this paper the parallel computing of a grid-point nine-level atmospheric general circulation model on the Dawn 1000 is introduced. The model was developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). The Dawn 1000 is a MIMD massive parallel computer made by National Research Center for Intelligent Computer (NCIC), CAS. A two-dimensional domain decomposition method is adopted to perform the parallel computing. The potential ways to increase the speed-up ratio and exploit more resources of future massively parallel supercomputation are also discussed.

Community-based participatory process--climate change and health adaptation program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada.

PubMed

McClymont Peace, Diane; Myers, Erin

2012-05-08

Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies.

Perceptions of risk among households in two Australian coastal communities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elrick-Barr, Carmen E.; Smith, Timothy F.; Thomsen, Dana C.

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi-structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall,more » the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Moreover, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities.« less

Perceptions of risk among households in two Australian coastal communities

DOE PAGES

Elrick-Barr, Carmen E.; Smith, Timothy F.; Thomsen, Dana C.; ...

2015-04-20

There is limited knowledge of risk perceptions in coastal communities despite their vulnerability to a range of risks including the impacts of climate change. A survey of 400 households in two Australian coastal communities, combined with semi-structured interviews, provides insight into household perceptions of the relative importance of climatic and non-climatic risks and the subsequent risk priorities that may inform household adaptive action. In contrast to previous research, the results demonstrated that geographic location and household characteristics might not affect perceptions of vulnerability to environmental hazards. However, past experience was a significant influence, raising the priority of environmental concerns. Overall,more » the results highlight the priority concerns of coastal households (from finance, to health and environment) and suggest to increase the profile of climate issues in coastal communities climate change strategies need to better demonstrate links between climate vulnerability and other household concerns. Moreover, promoting generic capacities in isolation from understanding the context in which households construe climate risks is unlikely to yield the changes required to decrease the vulnerability of coastal communities.« less

SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S.

2015-12-01

Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce skill development, community education, and/or adaptation/mitigation activities. Students are motivated by advanced real-world skill development, leadership opportunity, internship, community service and opportunity for international peer communication.

Engaging Youth on Climate & Health to Cultivate Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haine, D. B.; Gray, K. M.; Chang, D.; Morton, T.; Steele, B.; Backus, A.; Hauptman, M.

2017-12-01

Cultivating climate literacy among youth positions them to develop solutions and advocate for actions that prepare communities to adapt to climate change, mitigate emissions and ultimately protect human health and well-being, with an eye towards protecting the most vulnerable populations. This presentation will describe an innovative partnership among three university environmental health programs—based at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Columbia University and Harvard University—and their community collaborators: the Alliance for Climate Education, Boston Children's Hospital Pediatric Environmental Health Center and WE ACT for Environmental Justice. This project engages youth through non-formal educational programming that promotes climate literacy while also building the capacity of today's youth to promote community resilience. This partnership led to the development and implementation of two, long-duration extracurricular youth science enrichment programs in 2017, one in North Carolina (NC) and one in New York, with joint activities conducted virtually and in person to connect students with each other and with leading public health professionals and others working to promote community resilience and climate justice. Forty high school students, 20 from central NC and 20 from West Harlem in New York City, are enrolled in each program. In July 2017, students came together for a 3-day summer institute in NC. This session will feature the strategies, STEM-based activities and resources used in this project to engage students in the examination of their communities, identification and evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies and promotion of community resilience. Programming entailed having students interact with public health professionals, scientists and others to learn about climate impacts to public health and its infrastructure, vulnerable populations and planning for resilient communities. Ultimately, we sought to promote climate literacy among students by providing relevant and authentic learning opportunities using the lenses of human health and social justice. This session will include program evaluation data and lessons learned as students from two different regions of the country came together to explore community resilience.

A Lightweight Remote Parallel Visualization Platform for Interactive Massive Time-varying Climate Data Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Zhang, T.; Huang, Q.; Liu, Q.

2014-12-01

Today's climate datasets are featured with large volume, high degree of spatiotemporal complexity and evolving fast overtime. As visualizing large volume distributed climate datasets is computationally intensive, traditional desktop based visualization applications fail to handle the computational intensity. Recently, scientists have developed remote visualization techniques to address the computational issue. Remote visualization techniques usually leverage server-side parallel computing capabilities to perform visualization tasks and deliver visualization results to clients through network. In this research, we aim to build a remote parallel visualization platform for visualizing and analyzing massive climate data. Our visualization platform was built based on Paraview, which is one of the most popular open source remote visualization and analysis applications. To further enhance the scalability and stability of the platform, we have employed cloud computing techniques to support the deployment of the platform. In this platform, all climate datasets are regular grid data which are stored in NetCDF format. Three types of data access methods are supported in the platform: accessing remote datasets provided by OpenDAP servers, accessing datasets hosted on the web visualization server and accessing local datasets. Despite different data access methods, all visualization tasks are completed at the server side to reduce the workload of clients. As a proof of concept, we have implemented a set of scientific visualization methods to show the feasibility of the platform. Preliminary results indicate that the framework can address the computation limitation of desktop based visualization applications.

Parallel changes of taxonomic interaction networks in lacustrine bacterial communities induced by a polymetallic perturbation

PubMed Central

Laplante, Karine; Sébastien, Boutin; Derome, Nicolas

2013-01-01

Heavy metals released by anthropogenic activities such as mining trigger profound changes to bacterial communities. In this study we used 16S SSU rRNA gene high-throughput sequencing to characterize the impact of a polymetallic perturbation and other environmental parameters on taxonomic networks within five lacustrine bacterial communities from sites located near Rouyn-Noranda, Quebec, Canada. The results showed that community equilibrium was disturbed in terms of both diversity and structure. Moreover, heavy metals, especially cadmium combined with water acidity, induced parallel changes among sites via the selection of resistant OTUs (Operational Taxonomic Unit) and taxonomic dominance perturbations favoring the Alphaproteobacteria. Furthermore, under a similar selective pressure, covariation trends between phyla revealed conservation and parallelism within interphylum interactions. Our study sheds light on the importance of analyzing communities not only from a phylogenetic perspective but also including a quantitative approach to provide significant insights into the evolutionary forces that shape the dynamic of the taxonomic interaction networks in bacterial communities. PMID:23789031

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

PubMed Central

Bewick, Sharon; Stuble, Katharine L; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe; Dunn, Robert R; Adler, Frederick R; Sanders, Nathan J

2014-01-01

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heat-sensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change. PMID:24963378

Community-Based Adaptation To A Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This resource discusses how climate change is affecting community services, presents sample adaptation strategies, gives examples of successful community adaptation actions, and provides links to other key federal resources.

Collaboration in Action: Working with Indigenous peoples and Tribal communities to navigate climate decision support organizations and programs to assist Tribal communities in addressing climate resilience and sustainability efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, C. M.

2017-12-01

Creating opportunities and appropriate spaces with Tribal communities to engage with western scientists on climate resiliency is a complex endeavor. The shifting of seasons predicted by climate models and the resulting impacts that climate scientists investigate often verify what Traditional knowledge has already revealed to Indigenous peoples as they continue to live on, manage, and care for the environment they have been a part of for thousands of years. However, this convergence of two ways of knowing about our human environmental relationships is often difficult to navigate because of the ongoing impacts of colonialism and the disadvantage that Tribes operate from as a result. Day to day priorities of the Tribe are therefore reflective of more immediate issues rather than specifically considering the uncertainties of climate change. The College of Menominee Nation Sustainable Development Institute has developed a climate resilience program aimed at combining western science methodologies with indigenous ways of knowing as a means to assist Tribes in building capacity to address climate and community resiliency through culturally appropriate activities led by the Tribes. The efforts of the Institute, as guided by the SDI theoretical model of sustainability, have resulted in a variety of research, education and outreach projects that have provided not only the Menominee community, but other Tribal communities with opportunities to address climate resiliency as they see fit.

Stability in a changing world - palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years.

PubMed

Olivares, Ingrid; Svenning, Jens-Christian; van Bodegom, Peter M; Valencia, Renato; Balslev, Henrik

2017-03-01

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High Performance Computing-based Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Santa Cruz and San Pedro River Basin at Very High Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.; Rivera-Fernandez, E. R.; Dominguez, F.; Meixner, T.

2012-12-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on large river basins in the southwestern United States is important given the natural water scarcity in the region. The bimodal distribution of annual precipitation also presents a challenge as differential climate impacts during the winter and summer seasons are not currently well understood. In this work, we focus on the hydrological consequences of climate change in the Santa Cruz and San Pedro river basins along the Arizona-Sonora border at high spatiotemporal resolutions (~100 m and ~1 hour). These river systems support rich ecological communities along riparian corridors that provide habitat to migratory birds and support recreational and economic activities. Determining the climate impacts on riparian communities involves assessing how river flows and groundwater recharge will change with altered temperature and precipitation regimes. In this study, we use a distributed hydrologic model, known as the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), to generate simulated hydrological fields under historical (1991-2000) and climate change (2031-2040) scenarios obtained from an application of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Using the distributed model, we transform the meteorological scenarios from WRF at 10-km, hourly resolution into predictions of the annual water budget, seasonal land surface fluxes and individual hydrographs of flood and recharge events. For this contribution, we selected two full years in the historical period and in the future scenario that represent wet and dry conditions for each decade. Given the size of the two basins, we rely on a high performance computing platform and a parallel domain discretization using sub-basin partitioning with higher resolutions maintained at experimental catchments in each river basin. Model simulations utilize best-available data across the Arizona-Sonora border on topography, land cover and soils obtained from analysis of remotely-sensed imagery and government databases. For the historical period, we build confidence in the model simulations through comparisons with streamflow estimates in the region. We also evaluate the WRF forcing outcomes with respect to meteorological inputs from ground rain gauges and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). We then analyze the high-resolution spatiotemporal predictions of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff generation and recharge under past conditions and for the climate change scenario. A comparison with the historical period will yield a first-of-its-kind assessment at very high spatiotemporal resolution on the impacts of climate change on the hydrologic response of two large semiarid river basins of the southwestern United States.

Environmental variation and macrofauna response in a coastal area influenced by land runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akoumianaki, Ioanna; Papaspyrou, Sokratis; Kormas, Konstantinos Ar.; Nicolaidou, Artemis

2013-11-01

Macrofauna community interactions with environmental variables in the water column (salinity, temperature, turbidity, transparency, suspended particulate matter, particulate organic matter, choloroplastic pigments) and in the sediment (granulometric variables, organic carbon and pigments) were investigated in a coastal area with high land runoff due to riverine and temporary stream discharges (Greece, Aegean Sea, Maliakos Gulf). Samples were taken along a distance-depositional gradient from the river mouth to the open sea at eight stations, at times of different precipitation regime from August 2000 to May 2001. The physical variables, such as transparency and median grain size, generally increased seawards, and parallelled the depositional gradient as opposed to measures of food inputs and hydrodynamic regime. High environmental heterogeneity was observed during peak precipitation. The total number of species increased seawards and from August (122 species) to May (170 species). Maximum abundance also increased from August (4953 m-2) to May (10,220 individuals m-2), irrespective of distance from river mouth. Species belonging to different functional groups, as to recolonization, feeding, motility and substrate preferences, coexisted at all times indicating high functional diversity. Non-parametric multivariate regression showed that at times of low, rising and falling precipitation 78-81% of community variation was explained by environmental variables, indicating that macrofauna distribution and species composition respond to food inputs and sediment characteristics. During peak land runoff the community-environment relationship weakened (57% of the variability explained). The diversity of functional traits of the most abundant species indicates that the macrofauna community can absorb the impact of increased turbidity, sedimentation and current-driven dispersion. The study offers baseline information for the integrated coastal zone management in microtidal areas with high land runoff under Mediterranean-type climate conditions. During peak land runoff the community-environment relationship weakened (57% of the variability explained) whilst species distribution ranges increased. The study shows that the functional diversity in the study area prior to high discharge period enable macrofauna community to absorb the impact of increased turbidity, sedimentation and current-driven dispersion. The study offers baseline information for the impact of high land runoff in microtidal areas under Mediterranean-type climate conditions.

Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2011-07-20

This report summarizes work carried out by the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Team for the period of January 1, 2011 through June 30, 2011. It discusses highlights, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit our UV-CDAT website (URL: http://uv-cdat.org). This report will be forwarded to the program manager for the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER), national and international collaborators and stakeholders, and to researchers working on a wide range of other climate model, reanalysis, and observation evaluation activities. Themore » UV-CDAT executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Dave Bader and Galen Shipman of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Phil Jones and James Ahrens of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Claudio Silva of Polytechnic Institute of New York University (NYU-Poly); and Berk Geveci of Kitware, Inc. The UV-CDAT team consists of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge whose home institutions also include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the University of Utah. All work is accomplished under DOE open-source guidelines and in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders, domain researchers, and scientists. Working directly with BER climate science analysis projects, this consortium will develop and deploy data and computational resources useful to a wide variety of stakeholders, including scientists, policymakers, and the general public. Members of this consortium already collaborate with other institutions and universities in researching data discovery, management, visualization, workflow analysis, and provenance. The UV-CDAT team will address the following high-level visualization requirements: (1) Alternative parallel streaming statistics and analysis pipelines - Data parallelism, Task parallelism, Visualization parallelism; (2) Optimized parallel input/output (I/O); (3) Remote interactive execution; (4) Advanced intercomparison visualization; (5) Data provenance processing and capture; and (6) Interfaces for scientists - Workflow data analysis and visualization construction tools, and Visualization interfaces.« less

Climate variability decreases species richness and community stability in a temperate grassland.

PubMed

Zhang, Yunhai; Loreau, Michel; He, Nianpeng; Wang, Junbang; Pan, Qingmin; Bai, Yongfei; Han, Xingguo

2018-06-26

Climate change involves modifications in both the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation. According to global warming projections, both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, thereby increasing climate variability. The previous studies have reported that climate warming tends to decrease biodiversity and the temporal stability of community primary productivity (i.e., community stability), but the effects of the variability of temperature and precipitation on biodiversity, community stability, and their relationship have not been clearly explored. We used a long-term (from 1982 to 2014) field data set from a temperate grassland in northern China to explore the effects of the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation on species richness, community stability, and their relationship. Results showed that species richness promoted community stability through increases in asynchronous dynamics across species (i.e., species asynchrony). Both species richness and species asynchrony were positively associated with the residuals of community stability after controlling for its dependence on the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation. Furthermore, the variability of mean temperature reduced species richness, while the variability of total precipitation decreased species asynchrony and community stability. Overall, the present study revealed that species richness and species asynchrony promoted community stability, but increased climate variability may erode these positive effects and thereby threaten community stability.

An approach to secure weather and climate models against hardware faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düben, Peter D.; Dawson, Andrew

2017-03-01

Enabling Earth System models to run efficiently on future supercomputers is a serious challenge for model development. Many publications study efficient parallelization to allow better scaling of performance on an increasing number of computing cores. However, one of the most alarming threats for weather and climate predictions on future high performance computing architectures is widely ignored: the presence of hardware faults that will frequently hit large applications as we approach exascale supercomputing. Changes in the structure of weather and climate models that would allow them to be resilient against hardware faults are hardly discussed in the model development community. In this paper, we present an approach to secure the dynamical core of weather and climate models against hardware faults using a backup system that stores coarse resolution copies of prognostic variables. Frequent checks of the model fields on the backup grid allow the detection of severe hardware faults, and prognostic variables that are changed by hardware faults on the model grid can be restored from the backup grid to continue model simulations with no significant delay. To justify the approach, we perform model simulations with a C-grid shallow water model in the presence of frequent hardware faults. As long as the backup system is used, simulations do not crash and a high level of model quality can be maintained. The overhead due to the backup system is reasonable and additional storage requirements are small. Runtime is increased by only 13 % for the shallow water model.

Student Leadership Distribution: Effects of a Student-Led Leadership Program on School Climate and Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pedersen, Jeff; Yager, Stuart; Yager, Robert

2012-01-01

This study focuses on the understandings educators developed from two schools concerning how distributed leadership involving a select group of students affected the climate and community of their schools. Findings suggest that student-led leadership roles within the school community have an impact on creating a positive school-wide climate; a…

Simulating Global Climate Summits

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

2014-01-01

One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

Gavilan College Campus Diversity Climate Survey, 2002.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willett, Terrence

In the spring of 2002, Gavilan Community College (California) participated in the Campus Diversity Climate Survey project, funded by the California Community College State Chancellor's Office Funds for Student Success. The survey became part of the periodic assessment of student attitudes toward the campus climate at Gavilan. This climate includes…

Crops in silico: A community wide multi-scale computational modeling framework of plant canopies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Christensen, A.; Borkiewic, K.; Yiwen, X.; Ellis, A.; Panneerselvam, B.; Kannan, K.; Shrivastava, S.; Cox, D.; Hart, J.; Marshall-Colon, A.; Long, S.

2016-12-01

Current crop models predict a looming gap between supply and demand for primary foodstuffs over the next 100 years. While significant yield increases were achieved in major food crops during the early years of the green revolution, the current rates of yield increases are insufficient to meet future projected food demand. Furthermore, with projected reduction in arable land, decrease in water availability, and increasing impacts of climate change on future food production, innovative technologies are required to sustainably improve crop yield. To meet these challenges, we are developing Crops in silico (Cis), a biologically informed, multi-scale, computational modeling framework that can facilitate whole plant simulations of crop systems. The Cis framework is capable of linking models of gene networks, protein synthesis, metabolic pathways, physiology, growth, and development in order to investigate crop response to different climate scenarios and resource constraints. This modeling framework will provide the mechanistic details to generate testable hypotheses toward accelerating directed breeding and engineering efforts to increase future food security. A primary objective for building such a framework is to create synergy among an inter-connected community of biologists and modelers to create a realistic virtual plant. This framework advantageously casts the detailed mechanistic understanding of individual plant processes across various scales in a common scalable framework that makes use of current advances in high performance and parallel computing. We are currently designing a user friendly interface that will make this tool equally accessible to biologists and computer scientists. Critically, this framework will provide the community with much needed tools for guiding future crop breeding and engineering, understanding the emergent implications of discoveries at the molecular level for whole plant behavior, and improved prediction of plant and ecosystem responses to the environment.

Development of a Climate Resilience Screening Index (CRSI) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A Climate Resilience Screening Index is being developed that is applicable at multiple scales for the United States. Those scales include national, state, county and community. The index will be applied at the first three scales and at selected communities. The index was developed in order to explicitly include domains, indicators and metrics addressing environmental, economic and societal aspects of climate resilience. In addition, the index uses indicators and metrics that assess ecosystem, economic, governance and social services at these scales. Finally, we are developing forecasting approaches that can relate intended changes in services and governance to likely levels of changes in the resiliency of communities to climate change impacts. The present challenge is the incorporation of the index, its relationships to governance and the developing forecasting tools into Federal decision-making across US government and into state/county/community decision-making across the US. Governmental acceptance of changes to policies often can be just as challenging as the initial technical acceptance of the index and its relation to climate change. Climate Resilience Index is a requested product by ORD AA and EPA Administrator through SHC Program. Index needed to assess states', counties', and communities' abilities of recovery from climate events. Audience: Internal EPA (Administrator, IO, OLEM, OW and OAR) and external (states, counties and communities). Product

Hydropower Licensing as a Bridge between Climate Science and Applications: Creating Actionable Science for Regulatory Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Walker, S. H.

2016-12-01

The Integrated Licensing Process (ILP) of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is an example of an existing regulatory process that has the capacity to bridge the gap between science and decision making by clearly delineating existing science, the climate-regulatory nexus, and additional scientific work needed to inform licensing or relicensing of non-federal hydropower projects. In a parallel, but interacting set of legal and regulatory processes, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) must conduct analyses based on the best available science in order to implement the requirements of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Magnuson-Stevens Act, and NEPA, and to develop terms and conditions to protect fisheries for the 30-50 year term of the license and the longer life of the project itself. Therefore, NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its own mandates to protect anadromous fish, protected species and habitat. Federal Executive Order (EO) #13693 on climate change sustainability require use of climate risks in planning, also recommended in NOAA's own guidance on implementing ESA, and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) guidance on implementing NEPA; however, as an independent agency FERC is not subject to that EO. In the past, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating, among other reasons, that climate science is `too uncertain,' and therefore not actionable. Thus, in order for NMFS to get the information needed for its own decision process, NOAA must first persuade FERC that the science is actionable. This presentation will describe our experiences in a multi-year effort by an interdisciplinary team of climate and fishery scientists to develop acceptable climate study requests that address FERC's concerns about uncertainty, for the Susitna-Watana project on Alaska's Susitna River, the LaGrange Project on the Tuolumne R. in California, and the Hiram Project on the Saco R. in Maine. Furthermore, we document that climate studies are needed to meet FERC's own standard that study methodologies be "generally accepted practice" in the community, i.e., that water infrastructure planning and management has evolved to include use of climate risk assessments as best practices.

Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunting, Erin; Munson, Seth M.; Villarreal, Miguel

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on vegetation will likely be strong in the southwestern U.S., which is projected to experience large increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. Plant communities in the southwestern U.S. may be particularly vulnerable to climate change as the productivity of many plant species is strongly water-limited. This study examines the relationship between climate and vegetation condition using a time-series of Landsat imagery across grassland, shrubland, and woodland communities on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We improve on poorly understood inter-annual climate-vegetation relationships by exploring how the responses of different plant communities depend on climate legacies (>12 months) and lag behind shorter-term (3–12 month) changes in water availability. Our results show a prolonged drying trend on the Colorado Plateau since the early 1990s that was punctuated in several years by intense droughts. In areas that experienced sustained dry conditions or a drying trend, vegetation greenness (a proxy for production) increased linearly when conditions were interrupted by wetting events. In contrast, in areas that experienced sustained wet conditions or a wetting trend, vegetation greenness was weakly or not related to wetting events, indicating that production may saturate if vegetation experiences sufficient water availability. Shrubland and woodland communities had stronger relationships with climate at long lags (6–12 months) and many maintained greenness under sustained water deficit, whereas grassland communities had stronger relationships at short lags (3–6 months) and lost greenness even in periods of short-term drought. The results of our study show the importance of identifying climate legacies and lags when assessing indicators of ecological drought, which can be used to improve forecasts of which plant communities will be vulnerable under future climate change.

Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.

PubMed

Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter

2018-04-15

Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving the effectiveness of communication about climate science: Insights from the "Global Warming's Six Americas" audience segmentation research project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maibach, E.; Roser-Renouf, C.

2011-12-01

That the climate science community has not been entirely effective in sharing what it knows about climate change with the broader public - and with policy makers and organizations that should be considering climate change when making decisions - is obvious. Our research shows that a large majority of the American public trusts scientists (76%) and science-based agencies (e.g., 76% trust NOAA) as sources of information about climate change. Yet, despite the widespread agreement in the climate science community that the climate is changing as a result of human activity, only 64% of the public understand that the world's average temperature has been increasing (and only about half of them are sure), less than half (47%) understand that the warming is caused mostly by human activity, and only 39% understand that most scientists think global warming is happening (in fact, only 13% understand that the large majority of climate scientists think global warming is happening). Less obvious is what the climate science community should do to become more effective in sharing what it knows. In this paper, we will use evidence from our "Global Warming's Six Americas" audience segmentation research project to suggest ways that individual climate scientists -- and perhaps more importantly, ways in which climate science agencies and professional societies -- can enhance the effectiveness of their communication efforts. We will conclude by challenging members of the climate science community to identify and convey "simple, clear messages, repeated often, by a variety of trusted sources" - an approach to communication repeatedly shown to be effective by the public health community.

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2015-02-01

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species-specific responses are resulting in community-wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm-adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index--the Community Temperature Index (CTI)--which measures the balance between low- and high-temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22-year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm-adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

PubMed Central

Peace, Diane McClymont; Myers, Erin

2012-01-01

Objectives Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies. PMID:22584509

Large-Scale Changes in Community Composition: Determining Land Use and Climate Change Signals

PubMed Central

Kampichler, Christian; van Turnhout, Chris A. M.; Devictor, Vincent; van der Jeugd, Henk P.

2012-01-01

Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact—land use and climate change—are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant. PMID:22523579

Large-scale changes in community composition: determining land use and climate change signals.

PubMed

Kampichler, Christian; van Turnhout, Chris A M; Devictor, Vincent; van der Jeugd, Henk P

2012-01-01

Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact--land use and climate change--are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant.

Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities.

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Havstad, Kris M; McClaran, Mitchel P; Peters, Debra P; Vermeire, Lance T; Wei, Haiyan; Adler, Peter B

2016-06-08

Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, a proxy for niche differences, and quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate change on each species. Consistent with theory, in four of five communities indirect effects are strongest for species showing weak negative frequency dependence. Indirect effects are also stronger in communities where there is greater variation in direct effects. Overall responses to climate perturbations are driven primarily by direct effects, suggesting that single species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate change in these communities.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen I; Grace, James B

2010-11-09

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951-2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500-1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500-2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Downscaling from the predictions of general climate models is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of how variation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951–2007/2009) in a complex montane landscape (the Siskiyou Mountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 °C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500–1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500–2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herb-community changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different and more modest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide community-level validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

2017-12-01

The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

Analysis of biases from parallel observations of co-located manual and automatic weather stations in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena; Fajariana, Yuaning; Satyaningsih, Ratna; Aprilina, Kharisma; Astuti Nuraini, Tri; Ummiyatul Badriyah, Imelda; Lukita Sari, Dyah; Haryoko, Urip

2017-04-01

Inhomogeneities are often found in long records of climate data. These can occur because of various reasons, among others such as relocation of observation site, changes in observation method, and the transition to automated instruments. Changes to these automated systems are inevitable, and it is taking place worldwide in many of the National Meteorological Services. However this shift of observational practice must be done cautiously and a sufficient period of parallel observation of co-located manual and automated systems should take place as suggested by the World Meteorological Organization. With a sufficient parallel observation period, biases between the two systems can be analyzed. In this study we analyze the biases of a yearlong parallel observation of manual and automatic weather stations in 30 locations in Indonesia. The location of the sites spans from east to west of approximately 45 longitudinal degrees covering different climate characteristics and geographical settings. We study measurements taken by both sensors for temperature and rainfall parameters. We found that the biases from both systems vary from place to place and are more dependent to the setting of the instrument rather than to the climatic and geographical factors. For instance, daytime observations of the automatic weather stations are found to be consistently higher than the manual observation, and vice versa night time observations of the automatic weather stations are lower than the manual observation.

Efficient multi-objective calibration of a computationally intensive hydrologic model with parallel computing software in Python

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With enhanced data availability, distributed watershed models for large areas with high spatial and temporal resolution are increasingly used to understand water budgets and examine effects of human activities and climate change/variability on water resources. Developing parallel computing software...

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Predictability in community dynamics.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate drives phenological reassembly of a mountain wildflower meadow community.

PubMed

Theobald, Elli J; Breckheimer, Ian; HilleRisLambers, Janneke

2017-11-01

Spatial community reassembly driven by changes in species abundances or habitat occupancy is a well-documented response to anthropogenic global change, but communities can also reassemble temporally if the environment drives differential shifts in the timing of life events across community members. Much like spatial community reassembly, temporal reassembly could be particularly important when critical species interactions are temporally concentrated (e.g., plant-pollinator dynamics during flowering). Previous studies have documented species-specific shifts in phenology driven by climate change, implying that temporal reassembly, a process we term "phenological reassembly," is likely. However, few studies have documented changes in the temporal co-occurrence of community members driven by environmental change, likely because few datasets of entire communities exist. We addressed this gap by quantifying the relationship between flowering phenology and climate for 48 co-occurring subalpine wildflower species at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) in a large network of plots distributed across Mt. Rainier's steep environmental gradients; large spatio-temporal variability in climate over the 6 yr of our study (including the earliest and latest snowmelt year on record) provided robust estimates of climate-phenology relationships for individual species. We used these relationships to examine changes to community co-flowering composition driven by 'climate change analog' conditions experienced at our sites in 2015. We found that both the timing and duration of flowering of focal species was strongly sensitive to multiple climatic factors (snowmelt, temperature, and soil moisture). Some consistent responses emerged, including earlier snowmelt and warmer growing seasons driving flowering phenology earlier for all focal species. However, variation among species in their phenological sensitivities to these climate drivers was large enough that phenological reassembly occurred in the climate change analog conditions of 2015. An unexpected driver of phenological reassembly was fine-scale variation in the direction and magnitude of climatic change, causing phenological reassembly to be most apparent early and late in the season and in topographic locations where snow duration was shortest (i.e., at low elevations and on ridges in the landscape). Because phenological reassembly may have implications for many types of ecological interactions, failing to monitor community-level repercussions of species-specific phenological shifts could underestimate climate change impacts. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Shifts in the potential distribution of Sky Island plant communities in response to climate change

Treesearch

John A. Kupfer; Jeff Balmat; Jacqueline L. Smith

2005-01-01

To examine potential responses of sky island ecosystem pattern to projected climate changes, we used topographic and climatic data to develop a predictive model of plant community distribution in Saguaro National Park East, AZ. Increasing temperatures led to an upslope movement of communities and increased the area of desert scrub at the expense of montane conifer...

Community College Organizational Climate for Minorities and Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townsend, Barbara K.

2009-01-01

This paper explores the issues of what would constitute a positive organizational climate for women and minorities within the community college setting and ways in which such a climate might be achieved. It first describes some traditional or standard measures of a positive organizational climate for women and minorities and then evaluates how…

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T. Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Mori, Akira S.; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Reich, Peter B.; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W.; Smith, Melinda D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F.; van der Putten, Wim H.; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-01

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

PubMed

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T; Mori, Akira S; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A; Polley, H Wayne; Reich, Peter B; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W; Smith, Melinda D; Thakur, Madhav P; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F; van der Putten, Wim H; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-22

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Climate Connections in Virginia: Your Actions Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

2016-12-01

Our project objectives are to educate the general public about the science of climate change on global and local scales, highlight current and potential future impacts of climate change on Virginia and its communities, define community climate resiliency and why it is important, illustrate how individuals can contribute to the resiliency of their own community by taking personal steps to be prepared for weather events and health threats related to climate change, and, foster a conversion of climate change awareness and understanding into personal action to increase readiness and resiliency in homes, schools, and communities. The communication methods used to convey climate change and resiliency information are: development of new programming for the museum's NOAA Science on a Sphere® and digital Dome theater, production of a statewide digital media series (24 audio and 12 video content pieces/year), engagement with social media platforms, a public lecture series, facilitation of resiliency-themed programming (Art Lab, Challenge Lab, EcoLab), establishment of extreme event readiness challenge workshops, and enacting community preparedness and resiliency checklist and certification programs. A front-end evaluation was conducted to survey general audience understanding of the difference between climate and weather, climate change impacts, and resilience. We seek here to share some initial content and reflection based on the first few months of this project. Funded by NOAA Award NA15SEC0080009 and the Virginia Environmental Endowment.

Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover.

PubMed

Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

2015-12-01

To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time-decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity.

Strong Regionality and Dominance of Anaerobic Bacterial Taxa Characterize Diazotrophic Bacterial Communities of the Arcto-Alpine Plant Species Oxyria digyna and Saxifraga oppositifolia.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj; van Elsas, Jan Dirk; Nissinen, Riitta

2017-01-01

Arctic and alpine biomes are most often strongly nitrogen-limited, and hence biological nitrogen fixation is a strong driver of these ecosystems. Both biomes are characterized by low temperatures and short growing seasons, but they differ in seasonality of solar radiation and in soil water balance due to underlying permafrost in the Arctic. Arcto-alpine plant species are well-adapted to the low temperatures that prevail in their habitats, and plant growth is mainly limited by the availability of nutrients, in particular nitrogen, due to slow mineralization. Nitrogen fixing bacteria are likely important for plant growth in these habitats, but very little is known of these bacteria or forces shaping their communities. In this study, we characterized the potential nitrogen fixing bacterial (PNFB) communities associated with two arcto-alpine pioneer plant species, Oxyria digyna (mountain sorrel) and Saxifraga oppositifolia (blue saxifrage), in three climate regions. Both of these plants readily colonize low nutrient mineral soils. Our goal was to investigate how climate (region) and, on the other hand, host plant and plant species shape these communities. To our knowledge, this is the first comprehensive study describing PNFB communities associated with pioneer plants in different arcto-alpine biomes. Replicate samples were taken from two arctic regions, Kilpisjärvi and Ny-Ålesund, and one alpine region, Mayrhofen. In these, the PNFB communities in the bulk and rhizosphere soils and the plant endospheres were characterized by nifH -targeted PCR and massive parallel sequencing. The data revealed strong effects of climatic region on the dominating nitrogen fixers. Specifically, nifH sequences related to Geobacter (δ- Proteobacteria ) were present in high relative abundances in the nitrogen-fixing communities in the Mayrhofen and Kilpisjärvi regions, while members of the Clostridiales prevailed in the Kilpisjärvi and Ny-Ålesund regions. The bulk and rhizosphere soil as well as the endosphere communities in the Mayrhofen region were all characterized by high relative abundances of nifH sequences related to Geobacter . In contrast, the endosphere and soil (bulk or rhizosphere soil) communities in the High Arctic were highly divergent: endosphere communities in the arctic regions were shaped by Clostridium spp., while nifH sequences representing δ- Proteobacteria , β- Proteobacteria, Cyanobacteria (in Ny-Ålesund), and Verrucomicrobia (in Kilpisjärvi) dominated the soil communities. Interestingly, the major PNFB genera identified in this study have been previously identified as members of conserved core microbiomes in the endospheres and seeds of these plants by 16S rRNA gene based analyses combined with bacterial isolation, suggesting a very tight interaction between diazotrophic bacteria and these arctic pioneer plants. Overall, anaerobic bacterial taxa dominated the PNFB communities of the endospheres and rhizospheres of the two plant species in all study sites. This could indicate anoxic conditions in and around plant roots at the time of sampling (early growth season), created by melting snow and underlying permafrost.

Linking Wildfire and Climate as Drivers of Plant Species and Community-level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newingham, B. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Bright, B. C.

2015-12-01

Plant species distributions and community shifts after fire are affected by burn severity, elevation, aspect, and climate. However, little empirical data exists on long-term (decadal) recovery after fire across these interacting factors, limiting understanding of fire regime characteristics and climate in post-fire community trajectories. We examined plant species and community responses a decade after fire across five fires in ponderosa pine, dry mixed coniferous, and moist mixed coniferous forests across the western USA. Using field data, we determined changes in plant communities one and ten years post-fire across gradients of burn severity, elevation, and aspect. Existing published work has shown that plant species distributions can be accurately predicted from physiologically relevant climate variables using non-parametric Random Forests models; such models have also been linked to projected climate profiles in 2030, 2060, and 2090 generated from three commonly used general circulation models (GCMs). We explore the possibility that fire and climate are coupled drivers affecting plant species distributions. Climate change may not manifest as a slow shift in plant species distributions, but as sudden, localized events tied to changing fire and other disturbance regimes.

How to use MPI communication in highly parallel climate simulations more easily and more efficiently.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Jörg; Hanke, Moritz; Jahns, Thomas

2014-05-01

In this talk we present a way to facilitate efficient use of MPI communication for developers of climate models. Exploitation of the performance potential of today's highly parallel supercomputers with real world simulations is a complex task. This is partly caused by the low level nature of the MPI communication library which is the dominant communication tool at least for inter-node communication. In order to manage the complexity of the task, climate simulations with non-trivial communication patterns often use an internal abstraction layer above MPI without exploiting the benefits of communication aggregation or MPI-datatypes. The solution for the complexity and performance problem we propose is the communication library YAXT. This library is built on top of MPI and takes high level descriptions of arbitrary domain decompositions and automatically derives an efficient collective data exchange. Several exchanges can be aggregated in order to reduce latency costs. Examples are given which demonstrate the simplicity and the performance gains for selected climate applications.

Collaborating on Climate: The Signs of the Land Camp as a Model for Meaningful Learning Between Indigenous Communities and Western Climate Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Sparrow, E. B.

2016-12-01

As interest in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) grows, how can researchers ensure that collaboration is meaningful, relevant, and valuable for those involved? The Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Camp is a collaborative project developed by the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE), the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and the PoLAR Partnership. Modeled on AINE's Elder Academy and supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the camp facilitates in-depth dialogue about climate change and explores causes, impacts, and solutions through the cultural lens of Alaska Native communities. The project integrates local observations, IK, and western climate science. Participants engage with Alaska Native Elders, local climate researchers, and learn about climate communication tools and resources for responding. Following camps in 2014 and 2016, project partners identified a variety of questions about the challenges and opportunities of the collaboration that will be discussed in this presentation. For instance, what does it mean to equitably integrate IK, and in what ways are Native communities able to participate in research project design, delivery, and evaluation? How are decisions made and consensus built within cultural practices, project goals, and funding expectations? How do opportunities available to Indigenous communities to engage with western climate science broaden understanding and response? And, how does the ability to connect with and learn from Alaska Native Elders affect motivation, engagement, and community action? Finally, what is the effect of learning about climate change in a cultural camp setting?

The impacts of Cenozoic climate and habitat changes on small mammal diversity of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Joshua X.; Hopkins, Samantha S. B.

2017-02-01

Through the Cenozoic, paleoclimate records show general trends of global cooling and increased aridity, and environments in North America shifted from predominantly forests to more open habitats. Paleobotanical records indicate grasses were present on the continent in the Eocene; however, paleosol and phytolith studies indicate that open habitats did not arise until the late Eocene or even later in the Oligocene. Studies of large mammalian herbivores have documented changes in ecomorphology and community structure through time, revealing that shifts in mammalian morphology occurred millions of years after the environmental changes thought to have triggered them. Smaller mammals, like rodents and lagomorphs, should more closely track climate and habitat changes due to their shorter generation times and smaller ranges, but these animals have received much less study. To examine changes in smaller mammals through time, we have assembled and analyzed an ecomorphological database of all North American rodent and lagomorph species. Analyses of these data found that rodent and lagomorph community structure changed dramatically through the Cenozoic, and shifts in diversity and ecology correspond closely with the timing of habitat changes. Cenozoic rodent and lagomorph species diversity is strongly biased by sampling of localities, but sampling-corrected diversity reveals diversity dynamics that, after an initial density-dependent diversification in the Eocene, track habitat changes and the appearance of new ecological adaptations. As habitats became more open and arid through time, rodent and lagomorph crown heights increased while burrowing, jumping, and cursorial adaptations became more prevalent. Through time, open-habitat specialists were added during periods of diversification, while closed-habitat taxa were disproportionately lost in subsequent diversity declines. While shifts among rodents and lagomorphs parallel changes in ungulate communities, they started millions of years earlier than in larger mammals. This is likely a consequence of the smaller mammals' greater sensitivity to environmental changes and more rapid evolution. These results highlight the importance of examining understudied members of vertebrate faunas for understanding the evolution of terrestrial communities through time.

Soybean Physiology Calibration in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewniak, B. A.; Bilionis, I.; Constantinescu, E. M.

2014-12-01

With the large influence of agricultural land use on biophysical and biogeochemical cycles, integrating cultivation into Earth System Models (ESMs) is increasingly important. The Community Land Model (CLM) was augmented with a CLM-Crop extension that simulates the development of three crop types: maize, soybean, and spring wheat. The CLM-Crop model is a complex system that relies on a suite of parametric inputs that govern plant growth under a given atmospheric forcing and available resources. However, the strong nonlinearity of ESMs makes parameter fitting a difficult task. In this study, our goal is to calibrate ten of the CLM-Crop parameters for one crop type, soybean, in order to improve model projection of plant development and carbon fluxes. We used measurements of gross primary productivity, net ecosystem exchange, and plant biomass from AmeriFlux sites to choose parameter values that optimize crop productivity in the model. Calibration is performed in a Bayesian framework by developing a scalable and adaptive scheme based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Our scheme can perform model calibration using very few evaluations and, by exploiting parallelism, at a fraction of the time required by plain vanilla Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present the results from a twin experiment (self-validation) and calibration results and validation using real observations from an AmeriFlux tower site in the Midwestern United States, for the soybean crop type. The improved model will help researchers understand how climate affects crop production and resulting carbon fluxes, and additionally, how cultivation impacts climate.

Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change Science into High School and Community College Energy Course Offerings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howell, C.

2013-05-01

In reviewing studies evaluating trends in greenhouse gasses, weather, climate and/or ecosystems, it becomes apparent that climate change is a reality. It has also become evident that the energy sector accounts for most of the greenhouse gas emissions with worldwide emissions of carbon dioxide increasing by 31 percent from 1990 to 2005, higher than in the previous thousands of years. While energy courses and topics are presented in high school and community college classes the topic of Climate Change Science is not always a part of the conversation. During the summer of 2011 and 2012, research undergraduates conducted interviews with a total of 39 national community college and 8 high school instructors who participated in a two week Sustainable Energy Education Training (SEET) workshop. Interview questions addressed the barriers and opportunities to the incorporation of climate change as a dimension of an energy/renewable energy curriculum. Barriers found included: there is not enough instruction time to include it; some school administrators including community members do not recognize climate change issues; quality information about climate change geared to students is difficult to find; and, most climate change information is too scientific for most audiences. A Solution to some barriers included dialogue on sustainability as a common ground in recognizing environmental changes/concerns among educators, administrators and community members. Sustainability discussions are already supported in school business courses as well as in technical education. In conclusion, we cannot expect climate change to dissipate without humans making more informed energy and environmental choices. With global population growth producing greater emissions resulting in increased climate change, we must include the topic of climate change to students in high school and community college classrooms, preparing our next generation of leaders and workforce to be equipped to find solutions, (such as renewable energy and sustainability practices), to climate change and environmental sustainability.

The shrinking mining city: urban dynamics and contested territory.

PubMed

Martinez-Fernandez, Cristina; Wu, Chung-Tong; Schatz, Laura K; Taira, Nobuhisa; Vargas-Hernández, José G

2012-01-01

Shrinking mining cities — once prosperous settlements servicing a mining site or a system of mining sites — are characterized by long-term population and/or economic decline. Many of these towns experience periods of growth and shrinkage, mirroring the ebbs and flows of international mineral markets which determine the fortunes of the dominant mining corporation upon which each of these towns heavily depends. This dependence on one main industry produces a parallel development in the fluctuations of both workforce and population. Thus, the strategies of the main company in these towns can, to a great extent, determine future developments and have a great impact on urban management plans. Climate conditions, knowledge, education and health services, as well as transportation links, are important factors that have impacted on lifestyles in mining cities, but it is the parallel development with the private sector operators (often a single corporation) that constitutes the distinctive feature of these cities and that ultimately defines their shrinkage. This article discusses shrinking mining cities in capitalist economies, the factors underpinning their development, and some of the planning and community challenges faced by these cities in Australia, Canada, Japan and Mexico.

(Re)engineering Earth System Models to Expose Greater Concurrency for Ultrascale Computing: Practice, Experience, and Musings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, R. T.

2014-12-01

As the high performance computing (HPC) community pushes towards the exascale horizon, the importance and prevalence of fine-grained parallelism in new computer architectures is increasing. This is perhaps most apparent in the proliferation of so-called "accelerators" such as the Intel Xeon Phi or NVIDIA GPGPUs, but the trend also holds for CPUs, where serial performance has grown slowly and effective use of hardware threads and vector units are becoming increasingly important to realizing high performance. This has significant implications for weather, climate, and Earth system modeling codes, many of which display impressive scalability across MPI ranks but take relatively little advantage of threading and vector processing. In addition to increasing parallelism, next generation codes will also need to address increasingly deep hierarchies for data movement: NUMA/cache levels, on node vs. off node, local vs. wide neighborhoods on the interconnect, and even in the I/O system. We will discuss some approaches (grounded in experiences with the Intel Xeon Phi architecture) for restructuring Earth science codes to maximize concurrency across multiple levels (vectors, threads, MPI ranks), and also discuss some novel approaches for minimizing expensive data movement/communication.

Strengthening Multidisciplinary Research on Climate and Environmental Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beer, Tom; Li, Jianping; Alverson, Keith

2014-08-01

The difficulty with multidisciplinary research is finding common ground for scientists, whose approach to a particular scientific problem can differ radically. For example, there is agreement between the geophysical community and the food science and technology community that food security is an important issue. However, the climate change community sees possible solutions coming from more detailed studies on the links between climate change and agriculture, whereas the food science community sees possible solutions emerging from studies of food logistics and supply chains.

Plant communities on infertile soils are less sensitive to climate change.

PubMed

Harrison, Susan; Damschen, Ellen; Fernandez-Going, Barbara; Eskelinen, Anu; Copeland, Stella

2015-11-01

Much evidence suggests that plant communities on infertile soils are relatively insensitive to increased water deficit caused by increasing temperature and/or decreasing precipitation. However, a multi-decadal study of community change in the western USA does not support this conclusion. This paper tests explanations related to macroclimatic differences, overstorey effects on microclimate, variation in soil texture and plant functional traits. A re-analysis was undertaken of the changes in the multi-decadal study, which concerned forest understorey communities on infertile (serpentine) and fertile soils in an aridifying climate (southern Oregan) from 1949-1951 to 2007-2008. Macroclimatic variables, overstorey cover and soil texture were used as new covariates. As an alternative measure of climate-related change, the community mean value of specific leaf area was used, a functional trait measuring drought tolerance. We investigated whether these revised analyses supported the prediction of lesser sensitivity to climate change in understorey communities on infertile serpentine soils. Overstorey cover, but not macroclimate or soil texture, was a significant covariate of community change over time. It strongly buffered understorey temperatures, was correlated with less change and averaged >50 % lower on serpentine soils, thereby counteracting the lower climate sensitivity of understorey herbs on these soils. Community mean specific leaf area showed the predicted pattern of less change over time in serpentine than non-serpentine communities. Based on the current balance of evidence, plant communities on infertile serpentine soils are less sensitive to changes in the climatic water balance than communities on more fertile soils. However, this advantage may in some cases be lessened by their sparser overstorey cover. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Developing A Transdisciplinary Process and Community Partnerships to Anticipate Climate Change at the Local Level: The Role of Biophysical and Sociocultural Calendars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassam, K. A.; Samimi, C.; Trabucco, A.

2017-12-01

Difference is essential to solving the most complex problems faced by humanity. Anthropogenic climate change is one such "wicked problem" that demands cognitive diversity. Biophysical and social scientists must collaborate with scholars from the humanities to address practical issues of concern to local communities, which are at the forefront of impacts of climatic variation. As such, communities of inquirers (e.g. biophysical and social sciences, humanities) must work in tandem with communities of practice (e.g. farmers, fishers, gatherers, herders, hunters). This leads to co-generated knowledge where an adaptation strategy to climatic variation is locally grounded in the biophysical and sociocultural context of the communities where the impacts of climatic variation are most felt. We will present an innovative and `real time' example participatory and transdisciplinary research from an international project where we are developing integrated biophysical and sociocultural calendars, in short, ecological calendars, which are ecologically and culturally grounded in the local context to develop anticipatory capacity to anthropogenic climate change.

Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.

2008-04-01

Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.

School Climate Improvement Action Guide for Community Partners. School Climate Improvement Resource Package

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center on Safe Supportive Learning Environments, 2017

2017-01-01

Improving school climate takes time and commitment from a variety of people in a variety of roles. This document outlines how community partners can support school climate improvements. Organizations and individuals can partner with schools in many different ways--from delivering or coordinating direct services to students and families inside or…

Climate Change? When? Where?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boon, Helen

2009-01-01

Regional Australian students were surveyed to explore their understanding and knowledge of the greenhouse effect, ozone depletion and climate change. Results were compared with a parallel study undertaken in 1991 in a regional UK city. The comparison was conducted to investigate whether more awareness and understanding of these issues is…

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Model Configuration Collaborators Documentation and Code FAQ Operational Change Log Parallel Experiment

The Ophidia framework: toward cloud-based data analytics for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Sandro; D'Anca, Alessandro; Elia, Donatello; Mancini, Marco; Mariello, Andrea; Mirto, Maria; Palazzo, Cosimo; Aloisio, Giovanni

2015-04-01

The Ophidia project is a research effort on big data analytics facing scientific data analysis challenges in the climate change domain. It provides parallel (server-side) data analysis, an internal storage model and a hierarchical data organization to manage large amount of multidimensional scientific data. The Ophidia analytics platform provides several MPI-based parallel operators to manipulate large datasets (data cubes) and array-based primitives to perform data analysis on large arrays of scientific data. The most relevant data analytics use cases implemented in national and international projects target fire danger prevention (OFIDIA), interactions between climate change and biodiversity (EUBrazilCC), climate indicators and remote data analysis (CLIP-C), sea situational awareness (TESSA), large scale data analytics on CMIP5 data in NetCDF format, Climate and Forecast (CF) convention compliant (ExArch). Two use cases regarding the EU FP7 EUBrazil Cloud Connect and the INTERREG OFIDIA projects will be presented during the talk. In the former case (EUBrazilCC) the Ophidia framework is being extended to integrate scalable VM-based solutions for the management of large volumes of scientific data (both climate and satellite data) in a cloud-based environment to study how climate change affects biodiversity. In the latter one (OFIDIA) the data analytics framework is being exploited to provide operational support regarding processing chains devoted to fire danger prevention. To tackle the project challenges, data analytics workflows consisting of about 130 operators perform, among the others, parallel data analysis, metadata management, virtual file system tasks, maps generation, rolling of datasets, import/export of datasets in NetCDF format. Finally, the entire Ophidia software stack has been deployed at CMCC on 24-nodes (16-cores/node) of the Athena HPC cluster. Moreover, a cloud-based release tested with OpenNebula is also available and running in the private cloud infrastructure of the CMCC Supercomputing Centre.

Developing NOAA's Climate Data Records From AVHRR and Other Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privette, J. L.; Bates, J. J.; Kearns, E. J.

2010-12-01

As part of the provisional NOAA Climate Service, NOAA is providing leadership in the development of authoritative, measurement-based information on climate change and variability. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) recently initiated a satellite Climate Data Record Program (CDRP) to provide sustained and objective climate information derived from meteorological satellite data that NOAA has collected over the past 30+ years - particularly from its Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) program. These are the longest sustained global measurement records in the world and represent billions of dollars of investment. NOAA is now applying advanced analysis methods -- which have improved remarkably over the last decade -- to the POES AVHRR and other instrument data. Data from other satellite programs, including NASA and international research programs and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), are also being used. This process will unravel the underlying climate trend and variability information and return new value from the records. In parallel, NCDC will extend these records by applying the same methods to present-day and future satellite measurements, including the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and Jason-3. In this presentation, we will describe the AVHRR-related algorithm development activities that CDRP recently selected and funded through open competitions. We will particularly discuss some of the technical challenges related to adapting and using AVHRR algorithms with the VIIRS data that should become available with the launch of the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite in early 2012. We will also describe IT system development activities that will provide data processing and reprocessing, storage and management. We will also outline the maturing Program framework, including the strategies for coding and development standards, community reviews, independent program oversight, and research-to-operations algorithm migration and execution. Timeline of NOAA's polar orbiters that carried AVHRR. NOAA's approach to flying the same or similar instruments sequentially is well-suited to CDR development.

pH dominates variation in tropical soil archaeal diversity and community structure.

PubMed

Tripathi, Binu M; Kim, Mincheol; Lai-Hoe, Ang; Shukor, Nor A A; Rahim, Raha A; Go, Rusea; Adams, Jonathan M

2013-11-01

Little is known of the factors influencing soil archaeal community diversity and composition in the tropics. We sampled soils across a range of forest and nonforest environments in the equatorial tropics of Malaysia, covering a wide range of pH values. DNA was PCR-amplified for the V1-V3 region of the 16S rRNA gene, and 454-pyrosequenced. Soil pH was the best predictor of diversity and community composition of Archaea, being a stronger predictor than land use. Archaeal OTU richness was highest in the most acidic soils. Overall archaeal abundance in tropical soils (determined by qPCR) also decreased at higher pH. This contrasts with the opposite trend previously found in temperate soils. Thaumarcheota group 1.1b was more abundant in alkaline soils, whereas group 1.1c was only detected in acidic soils. These results parallel those found in previous studies in cooler climates, emphasizing niche conservatism among broad archaeal groups. Among the most abundant operational taxonomic units (OTUs), there was clear evidence of niche partitioning by pH. No individual OTU occurred across the entire range of pH values. Overall, the results of this study show that pH plays a major role in structuring tropical soil archaeal communities. © 2013 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

77 FR 68146 - Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for the Paseo del Morro National...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-15

... parallel to the Santa Maria Magdalena Cemetery, the second segment parallel to the community of La Perla... San Juan, protect the historic walls of El Morro, encourage educational tourism within the area. The... involved the community in information gathering for developing a shared vision for the Paseo del Morro...

A Framework for Understanding Community Colleges' Organizational Capacity for Data Use: A Convergent Parallel Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerrigan, Monica Reid

2014-01-01

This convergent parallel design mixed methods case study of four community colleges explores the relationship between organizational capacity and implementation of data-driven decision making (DDDM). The article also illustrates purposive sampling using replication logic for cross-case analysis and the strengths and weaknesses of quantitizing…

SciSpark: Highly Interactive and Scalable Model Evaluation and Climate Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Palamuttam, R. S.; Mogrovejo, R. M.; Whitehall, K. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Verma, R.; Waliser, D. E.; Lee, H.

2015-12-01

Remote sensing data and climate model output are multi-dimensional arrays of massive sizes locked away in heterogeneous file formats (HDF5/4, NetCDF 3/4) and metadata models (HDF-EOS, CF) making it difficult to perform multi-stage, iterative science processing since each stage requires writing and reading data to and from disk. We are developing a lightning fast Big Data technology called SciSpark based on ApacheTM Spark under a NASA AIST grant (PI Mattmann). Spark implements the map-reduce paradigm for parallel computing on a cluster, but emphasizes in-memory computation, "spilling" to disk only as needed, and so outperforms the disk-based ApacheTM Hadoop by 100x in memory and by 10x on disk. SciSpark will enable scalable model evaluation by executing large-scale comparisons of A-Train satellite observations to model grids on a cluster of 10 to 1000 compute nodes. This 2nd generation capability for NASA's Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) will compute simple climate metrics at interactive speeds, and extend to quite sophisticated iterative algorithms such as machine-learning based clustering of temperature PDFs, and even graph-based algorithms for searching for Mesocale Convective Complexes. We have implemented a parallel data ingest capability in which the user specifies desired variables (arrays) as several time-sorted lists of URL's (i.e. using OPeNDAP model.nc?varname, or local files). The specified variables are partitioned by time/space and then each Spark node pulls its bundle of arrays into memory to begin a computation pipeline. We also investigated the performance of several N-dim. array libraries (scala breeze, java jblas & netlib-java, and ND4J). We are currently developing science codes using ND4J and studying memory behavior on the JVM. On the pyspark side, many of our science codes already use the numpy and SciPy ecosystems. The talk will cover: the architecture of SciSpark, the design of the scientific RDD (sRDD) data structure, our efforts to integrate climate science algorithms in Python and Scala, parallel ingest and partitioning of A-Train satellite observations from HDF files and model grids from netCDF files, first parallel runs to compute comparison statistics and PDF's, and first metrics quantifying parallel speedups and memory & disk usage.

ESiWACE: A Center of Excellence for HPC applications to support cloud resolving earth system modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biercamp, Joachim; Adamidis, Panagiotis; Neumann, Philipp

2017-04-01

With the exa-scale era approaching, length and time scales used for climate research on one hand and numerical weather prediction on the other hand blend into each other. The Centre of Excellence in Simulation of Weather and Climate in Europe (ESiWACE) represents a European consortium comprising partners from climate, weather and HPC in their effort to address key scientific challenges that both communities have in common. A particular challenge is to reach global models with spatial resolutions that allow simulating convective clouds and small-scale ocean eddies. These simulations would produce better predictions of trends and provide much more fidelity in the representation of high-impact regional events. However, running such models in operational mode, i.e with sufficient throughput in ensemble mode clearly will require exa-scale computing and data handling capability. We will discuss the ESiWACE initiative and relate it to work-in-progress on high-resolution simulations in Europe. We present recent strong scalability measurements from ESiWACE to demonstrate current computability in weather and climate simulation. A special focus in this particular talk is on the Icosahedal Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model used for a comparison of high resolution regional and global simulations with high quality observation data. We demonstrate that close-to-optimal parallel efficiency can be achieved in strong scaling global resolution experiments on Mistral/DKRZ, e.g. 94% for 5km resolution simulations using 36k cores on Mistral/DKRZ. Based on our scalability and high-resolution experiments, we deduce and extrapolate future capabilities for ICON that are expected for weather and climate research at exascale.

Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai

2014-09-08

This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivitymore » of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.« less

ISI-MIP: The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, V.; Dahlemann, S.; Frieler, K.; Piontek, F.; Schewe, J.; Serdeczny, O.; Warszawski, L.

2013-12-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) aims to synthesize the state-of-the-art knowledge of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. The project's experimental design is formulated to distinguish the uncertainty introduced by the impact models themselves, from the inherent uncertainty in the climate projections and the variety of plausible socio-economic futures. The unique cross-sectoral scope of the project provides the opportunity to study cascading effects of impacts in interacting sectors and to identify regional 'hot spots' where multiple sectors experience extreme impacts. Another emphasis lies on the development of novel metrics to describe societal impacts of a warmer climate. We briefly outline the methodological framework, and then present selected results of the first, fast-tracked phase of ISI-MIP. The fast track brought together 35 global impact models internationally, spanning five sectors across human society and the natural world (agriculture, water, natural ecosystems, health and coastal infrastructure), and using the latest generation of global climate simulations (RCP projections from the CMIP5 archive) and socioeconomic drivers provided within the SSP process. We also introduce the second phase of the project, which will enlarge the scope of ISI-MIP by encompassing further impact sectors (e.g., forestry, fisheries, permafrost) and regional modeling approaches. The focus for the next round of simulations will be the validation and improvement of models based on historical observations and the analysis of variability and extreme events. Last but not least, we discuss the longer-term objective of ISI-MIP to initiate a coordinated, ongoing impact assessment process, driven by the entire impact community and in parallel with well-established climate model intercomparisons (CMIP).

Predicting effects of climate change on the composition and function of soil microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubinsky, E.; Brodie, E.; Myint, C.; Ackerly, D.; van Nostrand, J.; Bird, J.; Zhou, J.; Andersen, G.; Firestone, M.

2008-12-01

Complex soil microbial communities regulate critical ecosystem processes that will be altered by climate change. A critical step towards predicting the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems is to determine the primary controllers of soil microbial community composition and function, and subsequently evaluate climate change scenarios that alter these controllers. We surveyed complex soil bacterial and archaeal communities across a range of climatic and edaphic conditions to identify critical controllers of soil microbial community composition in the field and then tested the resulting predictions using a 2-year manipulation of precipitation and temperature using mesocosms of California annual grasslands. Community DNA extracted from field soils sampled from six different ecosystems was assayed for bacterial and archaeal communities using high-density phylogenetic microarrays as well as functional gene arrays. Correlations among the relative abundances of thousands of microbial taxa and edaphic factors such as soil moisture and nutrient content provided a basis for predicting community responses to changing soil conditions. Communities of soil bacteria and archaea were strongly structured by single environmental predictors, particularly variables related to soil water. Bacteria in the Actinomycetales and Bacilli consistently demonstrated a strong negative response to increasing soil moisture, while taxa in a greater variety of lineages responded positively to increasing soil moisture. In the climate change experiment, overall bacterial community structure was impacted significantly by total precipitation but not by plant species. Changes in soil moisture due to decreased rainfall resulted in significant and predictable alterations in community structure. Over 70% of the bacterial taxa in common with the cross-ecosystem study responded as predicted to altered precipitation, with the most conserved response from Actinobacteria. The functional consequences of these predictable changes in community composition were measured with functional arrays that detect genes involved in the metabolism of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The response of soil microbial communities to altered precipitation can be predicted from the distribution of microbial taxa across moisture gradients.

Translational Environmental Research: Improving the Usefulness and Usability of Research Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G.

2008-12-01

In recent years, requests for proposals more frequently emphasize outreach to stakeholder communities, decision support, and science that serves societal needs. Reports from the National Academy of Sciences and Western States Water Council emphasize the need for science translation and outreach, in order to address societal concerns with climate extremes, such as drought, the use of climate predictions, and the growing challenges of climate change. In the 1990s, the NOAA Climate Program Office developed its Regional Integrated Sciences and Asssessments program to help bridge the gap between climate science (notably, seasonal predictions) and society, to improve the flow of information to stakeholders, and to increase the relevance of climate science to inform decisions. During the same time period, the National Science Foundation initiated multi-year Science and Technology Centers and Decision Making Under Uncertainty Centers, with similar goals, but different metrics of success. Moreover, the combination of population growth, climate change, and environmental degradation has prompted numerous research initiatives on linking knowledge and action for sustainable development. This presentation reviews various models and methodologies for translating science results from field, lab, or modeling work to use by society. Lessons and approaches from cooperative extension, boundary organizations, co-production of science and policy, and medical translational research are examined. In particular, multi-step translation as practiced within the health care community is examined. For example, so- called "T1" (translation 1) research moves insights from basic science to clinical research; T2 research evaluates the effectiveness of clinical practice, who benefits from promising care regimens, and develops tools for clinicians, patients, and policy makers. T3 activities test the implementation, delivery, and spread of research results and clinical practices in order to foster policy changes and improve general health. Parallels in environmental sciences might be TER1 (translational environmental research 1), basic insights regarding environmental processes and relationships between environmental changes and their causes. TER2, applied environmental research, development of best practices, and development of decision support tools. TER3, might include usability and impact evaluation, effective outreach and implementation of best practices, and application of research insights to public policy and institutional change. According to the medical literature, and in anecdotal evidence from end-to-end environmental science, decision-maker and public involvement in these various forms of engaged research decreases the lag between scientific discovery and implementation of discoveries in operational practices, information tools, and organizational and public policies.

Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover

PubMed Central

Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

2015-01-01

To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time–decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, P<0.001), the succession rate at the community level was significantly higher in the northward transplant (w=0.058, P<0.001) and highest in the southward transplant (w=0.094, P<0.001). Climate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity. PMID:25989371

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions.

PubMed

Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toward a New Understanding of Community-Based Education: The Role of Community-Based Educational Spaces in Disrupting Inequality for Minoritized Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldridge, Bianca J.; Beck, Nathan; Medina, Juan Carlos; Reeves, Marlo A.

2017-01-01

Community-based educational spaces (CBES; afterschool programs, community-based youth organizations, etc.) have a long history of interrupting patterns of educational inequity and continue to do so under the current educational policy climate. The current climate of education, marked by neoliberal education restructuring, has left community-based…

New Developments in NOAA's Comprehensive Large Array-Data Stewardship System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchey, N. A.; Morris, J. S.; Carter, D. J.

2012-12-01

The Comprehensive Large Array-data Stewardship System (CLASS) is part of the NOAA strategic goal of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation that gives focus to the building and sustaining of key observational assets and data archives critical to maintaining the global climate record. Since 2002, CLASS has been NOAA's enterprise solution for ingesting, storing and providing access to a host of near real-time remote sensing streams such as the Polar and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (POES and GOES) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Since October, 2011 CLASS has also been the dedicated Archive Data Segment (ADS) of the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP). As the ADS, CLASS receives raw and processed S-NPP records for archival and distribution to the broad user community. Moving beyond just remote sensing and model data, NOAA has endorsed a plan to migrate all archive holdings from NOAA's National Data Centers into CLASS while retiring various disparate legacy data storage systems residing at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) and the National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC). In parallel to this data migration, CLASS is evolving to a service-oriented architecture utilizing cloud technologies for dissemination in addition to clearly defined interfaces that allow better collaboration with partners. This evolution will require implementation of standard access protocols and metadata which will lead to cost effective data and information preservation.

ADHydro: A Parallel Implementation of a Large-scale High-Resolution Multi-Physics Distributed Water Resources Model Using the Charm++ Run Time System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinke, R. C.; Ogden, F. L.; Lai, W.; Moreno, H. A.; Pureza, L. G.

2014-12-01

Physics-based watershed models are useful tools for hydrologic studies, water resources management and economic analyses in the contexts of climate, land-use, and water-use changes. This poster presents a parallel implementation of a quasi 3-dimensional, physics-based, high-resolution, distributed water resources model suitable for simulating large watersheds in a massively parallel computing environment. Developing this model is one of the objectives of the NSF EPSCoR RII Track II CI-WATER project, which is joint between Wyoming and Utah EPSCoR jurisdictions. The model, which we call ADHydro, is aimed at simulating important processes in the Rocky Mountain west, including: rainfall and infiltration, snowfall and snowmelt in complex terrain, vegetation and evapotranspiration, soil heat flux and freezing, overland flow, channel flow, groundwater flow, water management and irrigation. Model forcing is provided by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and ADHydro is coupled with the NOAH-MP land-surface scheme for calculating fluxes between the land and atmosphere. The ADHydro implementation uses the Charm++ parallel run time system. Charm++ is based on location transparent message passing between migrateable C++ objects. Each object represents an entity in the model such as a mesh element. These objects can be migrated between processors or serialized to disk allowing the Charm++ system to automatically provide capabilities such as load balancing and checkpointing. Objects interact with each other by passing messages that the Charm++ system routes to the correct destination object regardless of its current location. This poster discusses the algorithms, communication patterns, and caching strategies used to implement ADHydro with Charm++. The ADHydro model code will be released to the hydrologic community in late 2014.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism-Dependent Communities in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2013-12-01

Tourism is an essential element of the Laurentian Great Lakes economy as well as one of the sectors expected to be affected most by climate change, particularly through extreme weather events. While studies looking at climate change impacts on the Great Lakes tourism, specifically, are limited, the results of other studies suggest that both summer tourism activities, such as beach-going, and winter tourism activities, such as skiing and snowboarding, could feel the effects of a changing climate. The purpose of this study was to determine how existing data and models might be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent communities at the local scale. Future climate projections and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations based on historical climate data were used to quantify trends in environmental metrics with a potential influence on tourism for several tourism-dependent Great Lakes communities. The results of this research show that the potential impacts of climate change vary at the local scale and could require different adaptation strategies for different communities and for different sectors of the tourism industry. For example, communities in the northern parts of the Great Lakes may find benefit in a greater diversification of their tourism industries, given that warming temperatures could be beneficial for summer tourism activities, while communities in the southern parts of the Great Lakes may have to find other ways to cope with climate conditions that are less conducive to summer tourism activities. Stakeholder input could also help inform the process of producing scientific information that is useful to policymakers when it comes to tourism sector-related decision making.

Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor); Hoffman, Forrest; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D.

2002-01-01

A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time. By incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit between and among these climate regimes (or atmospheric states) in phase (or state) space. When a geographic region enters a state it never previously visited, a climatic change is said to have occurred. Tracing out the entire trajectory of a single spot on the globe yields a 'manifold' in state space representing the shape of its predicted climate occupancy. This sort of analysis enables a researcher to more easily grasp the multivariate behavior of the climate system.

A CLEAN Network Initiative - Accelerating Transition to Post Carbon and Resilient Communities through Education and Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; Bozuwa, J.; Davis, A.; Fraser, J.; Kretser, J.; Poppleton, K. L. I.; Qusba, L.; Ruggiero, K.; Spitzer, W.; Stylinski, C.

2016-12-01

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) was formed in 2008 to help climate and energy literacy stakeholders implement the Climate and Energy Literacy Essential Principles to enable effective and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate. The ongoing conversations of the CLEAN Network have cultivated a culture of shared resources and expertise and allowed for the development of collective impact strategies. However, it has become clear that to accelerate and scale change, effective mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies must be developed by a diverse network of stakeholders at the community level to deal with the local impacts of climate change and move toward decarbonized and resilient economies. A group of CLEAN Network members, experienced in establishing effective networks and representing mature climate change education programs, came together to discuss at the community level 1) how we can collectively enable larger scale efforts to 2) develop effective strategies, 3) identify gaps in the system that limit action, and 4) coordinate possible vectors for interceding to advance community level decisions related to climate. We will describe our Theory of Change, based on both the power of communities and increasing climate literacy as a key requirement for sustained progress on the crisis climate change presents. From our Theory of Change, we have begun to outline a national monitoring strategy that can provide communities a measured way to understand their local readiness to respond to the impacts of climate change and understand the magnitude of those impacts in relation to their political and ecological economies. The scale would help describe the robustness of their programs and partnerships to address those impacts, the political climate for working in advance of pending change, and the degree of citizen engagement in resilience planning and action. The goal is to provide a common tool equivalent to GDP that communities could use to see their strengths and leverage points, and where they have the local resources to build solutions or co-develop solutions with others. Though this new tool, communities may be better able to focus on mitigation, adaptation, and the building of resilience that will put into practice the identified Theory of Change.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Configuration Collaborators Documentation and Code FAQ Operational Change Log Parallel Experiment Change Log

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Organization Search Enter text Search Navigation Bar End Cap Search EMC Go Branches Global Climate and Weather Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Collaborators Documentation and Code FAQ Operational Change Log Parallel Experiment Change Log Contacts

Experimental Climate Change Modifies Degradative Succession in Boreal Peatland Fungal Communities.

PubMed

Asemaninejad, Asma; Thorn, R Greg; Lindo, Zoë

2017-04-01

Peatlands play an important role in global climate change through sequestration of atmospheric CO 2 . Climate-driven changes in the structure of fungal communities in boreal peatlands that favor saprotrophic fungi can substantially impact carbon dynamics and nutrient cycling in these crucial ecosystems. In a mesocosm study using a full factorial design, 100 intact peat monoliths, complete with living Sphagnum and above-ground vascular vegetation, were subjected to three climate change variables (increased temperature, reduced water table, and elevated CO 2 concentrations). Peat litterbags were placed in mesocosms, and fungal communities in litterbags were monitored over 12 months to assess the impacts of climate change variables on peat-inhabiting fungi. Changes in fungal richness, diversity, and community composition were assessed using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of ribosomal DNA (rDNA). While general fungal richness reduced under warming conditions, Ascomycota exhibited higher diversity under increased temperature treatments over the course of the experiment. Both increased temperature and lowered water table position drove shifts in fungal community composition with a strong positive effect on endophytic and mycorrhizal fungi (including one operational taxonomic unit (OTU) tentatively identified as Barrenia panicia) and different groups of saprotrophs identified as Mortierella, Galerina, and Mycena. These shifts were observed during a predicted degradative succession in the decomposer community as different carbon substrates became available. Since fungi play a central role in peatland communities, increased abundances of saprotrophic fungi under warming conditions, at the expense of reduced fungal richness overall, may increase decomposition rates under future climate scenarios and could potentially aggravate the impacts of climate change.

PARAMESH: A Parallel Adaptive Mesh Refinement Community Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacNeice, Peter; Olson, Kevin M.; Mobarry, Clark; deFainchtein, Rosalinda; Packer, Charles

1999-01-01

In this paper, we describe a community toolkit which is designed to provide parallel support with adaptive mesh capability for a large and important class of computational models, those using structured, logically cartesian meshes. The package of Fortran 90 subroutines, called PARAMESH, is designed to provide an application developer with an easy route to extend an existing serial code which uses a logically cartesian structured mesh into a parallel code with adaptive mesh refinement. Alternatively, in its simplest use, and with minimal effort, it can operate as a domain decomposition tool for users who want to parallelize their serial codes, but who do not wish to use adaptivity. The package can provide them with an incremental evolutionary path for their code, converting it first to uniformly refined parallel code, and then later if they so desire, adding adaptivity.

Climate change through an intersectional lens: gendered vulnerability and resilience in indigenous communities in the United States

Treesearch

Kirsten Vinyeta; Kyle Powys Whyte; Kathy Lynn

2015-01-01

The scientific and policy literature on climate change increasingly recognizes the vulnerabilities of indigenous communities and their capacities for resilience. The role of gender in defining how indigenous peoples experience climate change in the United States is a research area that deserves more attention. Advancing climate change threatens the continuance of many...

How disturbance, competition, and dispersal interact to prevent tree range boundaries from keeping pace with climate change

Treesearch

Yu Liang; Matthew J. Duveneck; Eric J. Gustafson; Josep M. Serra-Diaz; Jonathan R. Thompson

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to cause geographic shifts in tree species' ranges, but such shifts may not keep pace with climate changes because seed dispersal distances are often limited and competition-induced changes in community composition can be relatively slow. Disturbances may speed changes in community composition, but the interactions among climate change,...

The interacting roles of climate, soils, and plant production on soil microbial communities at a continental scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldrop, Mark P.; Holloway, JoAnn M.; Smith, David; Goldhaber, Martin B.; Drenovsky, R.E.; Scow, K.M.; Dick, R.; Howard, Daniel M.; Wylie, Bruce K.; Grace, James B.

2017-01-01

Soil microbial communities control critical ecosystem processes such as decomposition, nutrient cycling, and soil organic matter formation. Continental scale patterns in the composition and functioning of microbial communities are related to climatic, biotic, and edaphic factors such as temperature and precipitation, plant community composition, and soil carbon, nitrogen, and pH. Although these relationships have been well explored individually, the examination of the factors that may act directly on microbial communities vs. those that may act indirectly through other ecosystem properties has not been well developed. To further such understanding, we utilized structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate a set of hypotheses about the direct and indirect effects of climatic, biotic, and edaphic variables on microbial communities across the continental United States. The primary goals of this work were to test our current understanding of the interactions among climate, soils, and plants in affecting microbial community composition, and to examine whether variation in the composition of the microbial community affects potential rates of soil enzymatic activities. A model of interacting factors created through SEM shows several expected patterns. Distal factors such as climate had indirect effects on microbial communities by influencing plant productivity, soil mineralogy, and soil pH, but factors related to soil organic matter chemistry had the most direct influence on community composition. We observed that both plant productivity and soil mineral composition were important indirect influences on community composition at the continental scale, both interacting to affect organic matter content and microbial biomass and ultimately community composition. Although soil hydrolytic enzymes were related to the moisture regime and soil carbon, oxidative enzymes were also affected by community composition, reflected in the abundance of soil fungi. These results highlight that soil microbial communities can be modeled within the context of multiple interacting ecosystem properties acting both directly and indirectly on their composition and function, and this provides a rich and informative context with which to examine communities. This work also highlights that variation in climate, microbial biomass, and microbial community composition can affect maximum rates of soil enzyme activities, potentially influencing rates of decomposition and nutrient mineralization in soils.

Not Your Child's Playground: Workplace Bullying among Community College Faculty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lester, Jaime

2009-01-01

Community colleges have provided an entree into higher education for many women. Yet, women faculty perceive the overall climate of community colleges as "chilly." To deconstruct the interpersonal dynamics that may lead to perceptions of a chilly climate, this study examines the prevalence of workplace bullying among and between community college…

Exploring the Climate for Women as Community College Faculty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hagedorn, Linda Serra; Laden, Berta Vigil

2002-01-01

Provides a literature review and national dataset analyses regarding the perceived conditions of women community college faculty members. Reports that the climate at the average community college may be friendlier than at four-year institutions; however, women faculty at community colleges are not free from the confines of glass ceilings, academic…

Fire severity mediates climate-driven shifts in understorey community composition of black spruce stands of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Emily L. Bernhardt; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Question: How do pre-fire conditions (community composition and environmental characteristics) and climate-driven disturbance characteristics (fire severity) affect post-fire community composition in black spruce stands? Location: Northern boreal forest, interior Alaska. Methods: We compared plant community composition and environmental stand characteristics in 14...

'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.

PubMed

Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A

2012-03-01

Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.

Great plains regional climate assessment technical report

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Great Plains region (GP) plays important role in providing food and energy to the economy of the United States. Multiple climatic and non-climatic stressors put multiple sectors, livelihoods and communities at risk, including agriculture, water, ecosystems and rural and tribal communities. The G...

Algorithm of dynamic regulation of a system of duct, for a high accuracy climatic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbatskiy, A. A.; Afonina, G. N.; Glazov, V. S.

2017-11-01

Currently, major part of climatic system, are stationary in projected mode only. At the same time, many modern industrial sites, require constant or periodical changes in technological process. That is 80% of the time, the industrial site is not require ventilation system in projected mode and high precision of climatic parameters must maintain. While that not constantly is in use for climatic systems, which use in parallel for different rooms, we will be have a problem for balance of duct system. For this problem, was created the algorithm for quantity regulation, with minimal changes. Dynamic duct system: Developed of parallel control system of air balance, with high precision of climatic parameters. The Algorithm provide a permanent pressure in main duct, in different a flow of air. Therefore, the ending devises air flow have only one parameter for regulation - flaps open area. Precision of regulation increase and the climatic system provide high precision for temperature and humidity (0,5C for temperature, 5% for relative humidity). Result: The research has been made in CFD-system - PHOENICS. Results for velocity of air in duct, for pressure of air in duct for different operation mode, has been obtained. Equation for air valves positions, with different parameters for climate in room’s, has been obtained. Energy saving potential for dynamic duct system, for different types of a rooms, has been calculated.

Artificial light at night as a new threat to pollination.

PubMed

Knop, Eva; Zoller, Leana; Ryser, Remo; Gerpe, Christopher; Hörler, Maurin; Fontaine, Colin

2017-08-10

Pollinators are declining worldwide and this has raised concerns for a parallel decline in the essential pollination service they provide to both crops and wild plants. Anthropogenic drivers linked to this decline include habitat changes, intensive agriculture, pesticides, invasive alien species, spread of pathogens and climate change. Recently, the rapid global increase in artificial light at night has been proposed to be a new threat to terrestrial ecosystems; the consequences of this increase for ecosystem function are mostly unknown. Here we show that artificial light at night disrupts nocturnal pollination networks and has negative consequences for plant reproductive success. In artificially illuminated plant-pollinator communities, nocturnal visits to plants were reduced by 62% compared to dark areas. Notably, this resulted in an overall 13% reduction in fruit set of a focal plant even though the plant also received numerous visits by diurnal pollinators. Furthermore, by merging diurnal and nocturnal pollination sub-networks, we show that the structure of these combined networks tends to facilitate the spread of the negative consequences of disrupted nocturnal pollination to daytime pollinator communities. Our findings demonstrate that artificial light at night is a threat to pollination and that the negative effects of artificial light at night on nocturnal pollination are predicted to propagate to the diurnal community, thereby aggravating the decline of the diurnal community. We provide perspectives on the functioning of plant-pollinator communities, showing that nocturnal pollinators are not redundant to diurnal communities and increasing our understanding of the human-induced decline in pollinators and their ecosystem service.

Top-down regulation, climate and multi-decadal changes in coastal zoobenthos communities in two Baltic Sea areas.

PubMed

Olsson, Jens; Bergström, Lena; Gårdmark, Anna

2013-01-01

The structure of many marine ecosystems has changed substantially during recent decades, as a result of overexploitation, climate change and eutrophication. Despite of the apparent ecological and economical importance of coastal areas and communities, this aspect has received relatively little attention in coastal systems. Here we assess the temporal development of zoobenthos communities in two areas on the Swedish Baltic Sea coast during 30 years, and relate their development to changes in climate, eutrophication and top-down regulation from fish. Both communities show substantial structural changes, with a decrease in marine polychaetes and species sensitive to increased water temperatures. Concurrently, opportunistic species tolerant to environmental perturbation have increased in abundance. Species composition show a similar temporal development in both communities and significant changes in species composition occurred in both data sets in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The change in species composition was associated with large scale changes in climate (salinity and water temperature) and to the structure of the local fish community, whereas we found no effects of nutrient loading or ambient nutrient concentrations. Our results suggest that these coastal zoobenthos communities have gone through substantial structural changes over the last 30 years, resulting in communities of different species composition with potentially different ecological functions. We hence suggest that the temporal development of coastal zoobenthos communities should be assessed in light of prevailing climatic conditions considering the potential for top-down effects exerted by local fish communities.

Top-Down Regulation, Climate and Multi-Decadal Changes in Coastal Zoobenthos Communities in Two Baltic Sea Areas

PubMed Central

Olsson, Jens; Bergström, Lena; Gårdmark, Anna

2013-01-01

The structure of many marine ecosystems has changed substantially during recent decades, as a result of overexploitation, climate change and eutrophication. Despite of the apparent ecological and economical importance of coastal areas and communities, this aspect has received relatively little attention in coastal systems. Here we assess the temporal development of zoobenthos communities in two areas on the Swedish Baltic Sea coast during 30 years, and relate their development to changes in climate, eutrophication and top-down regulation from fish. Both communities show substantial structural changes, with a decrease in marine polychaetes and species sensitive to increased water temperatures. Concurrently, opportunistic species tolerant to environmental perturbation have increased in abundance. Species composition show a similar temporal development in both communities and significant changes in species composition occurred in both data sets in the late 1980s and early 1990s. The change in species composition was associated with large scale changes in climate (salinity and water temperature) and to the structure of the local fish community, whereas we found no effects of nutrient loading or ambient nutrient concentrations. Our results suggest that these coastal zoobenthos communities have gone through substantial structural changes over the last 30 years, resulting in communities of different species composition with potentially different ecological functions. We hence suggest that the temporal development of coastal zoobenthos communities should be assessed in light of prevailing climatic conditions considering the potential for top-down effects exerted by local fish communities. PMID:23737998

Electricity generation and microbial community in response to short-term changes in stack connection of self-stacked submersible microbial fuel cell powered by glycerol.

PubMed

Zhao, Nannan; Angelidaki, Irini; Zhang, Yifeng

2017-02-01

Stack connection (i.e., in series or parallel) of microbial fuel cell (MFC) is an efficient way to boost the power output for practical application. However, there is little information available on short-term changes in stack connection and its effect on the electricity generation and microbial community. In this study, a self-stacked submersible microbial fuel cell (SSMFC) powered by glycerol was tested to elucidate this important issue. In series connection, the maximum voltage output reached to 1.15 V, while maximum current density was 5.73 mA in parallel. In both connections, the maximum power density increased with the initial glycerol concentration. However, the glycerol degradation was even faster in parallel connection. When the SSMFC was shifted from series to parallel connection, the reactor reached to a stable power output without any lag phase. Meanwhile, the anodic microbial community compositions were nearly stable. Comparatively, after changing parallel to series connection, there was a lag period for the system to get stable again and the microbial community compositions became greatly different. This study is the first attempt to elucidate the influence of short-term changes in connection on the performance of MFC stack, and could provide insight to the practical utilization of MFC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate.

PubMed

Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul

2011-03-01

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Staff Turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (Act) Teams: The Role of Team Climate.

PubMed

Zhu, Xi; Wholey, Douglas R; Cain, Cindy; Natafgi, Nabil

2017-03-01

Staff turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) teams can result in interrupted services and diminished support for clients. This paper examines the effect of team climate, defined as team members' shared perceptions of their work environment, on turnover and individual outcomes that mediate the climate-turnover relationship. We focus on two climate dimensions: safety and quality climate and constructive conflict climate. Using survey data collected from 26 ACT teams, our analyses highlight the importance of safety and quality climate in reducing turnover, and job satisfaction as the main mediator linking team climate to turnover. The findings offer practical implications for team management.

Looking inside and out: the impact of employee and community demographic composition on organizational diversity climate.

PubMed

Pugh, S Douglas; Dietz, Joerg; Brief, Arthur P; Wiley, Jack W

2008-11-01

An organization's diversity climate refers to employees' shared perceptions of the policies and practices that communicate the extent to which fostering diversity and eliminating discrimination is a priority in the organization. The authors propose a salient element of the organizational context, the racial composition of the community where the organization is located, serves an important signaling function that shapes the formation of climate perceptions. In a study of 142 retail bank units in the United States, evidence is found for a relationship between the racial composition of an organization's workforce and diversity climate that is moderated by the racial composition of the community where the organization is located. The results suggest that when few racial minorities live in the community in which an organization is embedded, workforce diversity has an impact on employees' diversity climate perceptions. As racial minority popular share increases, workforce diversity tends to lose this signaling value.

Regional climatic warming drives long-term community changes of British marine fish.

PubMed Central

Genner, Martin J.; Sims, David W.; Wearmouth, Victoria J.; Southall, Emily J.; Southward, Alan J.; Henderson, Peter A.; Hawkins, Stephen J.

2004-01-01

Climatic change has been implicated as the cause of abundance fluctuations in marine fish populations worldwide, but the effects on whole communities are poorly understood. We examined the effects of regional climatic change on two fish assemblages using independent datasets from inshore marine (English Channel, 1913-2002) and estuarine environments (Bristol Channel, 1981-2001). Our results show that climatic change has had dramatic effects on community composition. Each assemblage contained a subset of dominant species whose abundances were strongly linked to annual mean sea-surface temperature. Species' latitudinal ranges were not good predictors of species-level responses, however, and the same species did not show congruent trends between sites. This suggests that within a region, populations of the same species may respond differently to climatic change, possibly owing to additional local environmental determinants, interspecific ecological interactions and dispersal capacity. This will make species-level responses difficult to predict within geographically differentiated communities. PMID:15156925

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari;

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Sari Kovats, R.; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, Katharine

2016-09-01

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities of Prairie-Pothole wetlands and lakes under a changed climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLean, Kyle I.; Mushet, David M.; Renton, David A.; Stockwell, Craig A.

2016-01-01

Understanding how aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities respond to changes in climate is important for biodiversity conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region and other wetland-rich landscapes. We sampled macroinvertebrate communities of 162 wetlands and lakes previously sampled from 1966 to 1976, a much drier period compared to our 2012–2013 sampling timeframe. To identify possible influences of a changed climate and predation pressures on macroinvertebrates, we compared two predictors of aquatic-macroinvertebrate communities: ponded-water dissolved-ion concentration and vertebrate-predator presence/abundance. Further, we make inferences of how macroinvertebrate communities were structured during the drier period when the range of dissolved-ion concentrations was much greater and fish occurrence in aquatic habitats was rare. We found that aquatic-macroinvertebrate community structure was influenced by dissolved-ion concentrations through a complex combination of direct and indirect relationships. Ion concentrations also influenced predator occurrence and abundance, which indirectly affected macroinvertebrate communities. It is important to consider both abiotic and biotic gradients when predicting how invertebrate communities will respond to climate change. Generally, in the wetlands and lakes we studied, freshening of ponded water resulted in more homogenous communities than occurred during a much drier period when salinity range among sites was greater.

How Are Fishing Patterns and Fishing Communities Responding to Climate Change? A Test Case from the Northwest Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, T.; Fuller, E.; Coleman, K.; Provost, M.; Pinsky, M. L.; St Martin, K.

2016-02-01

We know climate is changing and fish are moving in response to those changes. But we understand less about how harvesters are responding to these changes in fish distribution and the ramifications of those changes for fishing communities. Ecological and evolutionary theory suggests that organisms must move, adapt, or die in response to environmental changes, and a related frame may be relevant for human harvesters in the face of climate change. Furthermore, research suggests that there may be a portfolio effect: a wider diversity of catch may buffer harvesters from some effects of climate change. To get at these questions, we explored changes in fishing patterns among commercial fishing communities in the northeast US from 1997-2014 using NOAA-collected logbook data. We found that communities using more mobile gear (large trawl vessels) demonstrated a greater range of latitudinal shift than communities using any other gear. Latitudinal shift was also inversely related to species diversity of catch and port latitude in those communities: southern communities that caught few species shifted dramatically northward, and northern communities that caught many species did not demonstrate marked latitudinal shifts. Those communities that demonstrated larger latitudinal shifts also demonstrated smaller changes in catch composition than their more stationary counterparts. We also found that vessels are indeed leaving many, but not all, fisheries in this region. These results suggest that harvesters are moving, adapting, and leaving fisheries, and that there does appear to be a portfolio effect, with catch diversity mediating some of these responses. While these changes in fishing patterns cannot all be directly attributed to climate change per se, marine fishes in this region are shifting north rapidly, as is expected under climate change. This study provides a valuable test case for exploring the potential ramifications of climate change on coastal socio-ecological systems.

Collaborative Project: Building improved optimized parameter estimation algorithms to improve methane and nitrogen fluxes in a climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie

Soils in natural and managed ecosystems and wetlands are well known sources of methane, nitrous oxides, and reactive nitrogen gases, but the magnitudes of gas flux to the atmosphere are still poorly constrained. Thus, the reasons for the large increases in atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide since the preindustrial time period are not well understood. The low atmospheric concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide, despite being more potent greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide, complicate empirical studies to provide explanations. In addition to climate concerns, the emissions of reactive nitrogen gases from soils are important to the changing nitrogenmore » balance in the earth system, subject to human management, and may change substantially in the future. Thus improved modeling of the emission fluxes of these species from the land surface is important. Currently, there are emission modules for methane and some nitrogen species in the Community Earth System Model’s Community Land Model (CLM-ME/N); however, there are large uncertainties and problems in the simulations, resulting in coarse estimates. In this proposal, we seek to improve these emission modules by combining state-of-the-art process modules for emissions, available data, and new optimization methods. In earth science problems, we often have substantial data and knowledge of processes in disparate systems, and thus we need to combine data and a general process level understanding into a model for projections of future climate that are as accurate as possible. The best methodologies for optimization of parameters in earth system models are still being developed. In this proposal we will develop and apply surrogate algorithms that a) were especially developed for computationally expensive simulations like CLM-ME/N models; b) were (in the earlier surrogate optimization Stochastic RBF) demonstrated to perform very well on computationally expensive complex partial differential equations in earth science with limited numbers of simulations; and, c) will be (as part of the proposed research) significantly improved both by adding asynchronous parallelism, early truncation of unsuccessful simulations, and the improvement of both serial and parallel performance by the use of derivative and sensitivity information from global and local surrogate approximations S(x). The algorithm development and testing will be focused on the CLM-ME/N model application, but the methods are general and are expected to also perform well on optimization for parameter estimation of other climate models and other classes of continuous multimodal optimization problems arising from complex simulation models. In addition, this proposal will compile available datasets of emissions of methane, nitrous oxides and reactive nitrogen species and develop protocols for site level comparisons with the CLM-ME/N. Once the model parameters are optimized against site level data, the model will be simulated at the global level and compared to atmospheric concentration measurements for the current climate, and future emissions will be estimated using climate change as simulated by the CESM. This proposal combines experts in earth system modeling, optimization, computer science, and process level understanding of soil gas emissions in an interdisciplinary team in order to improve the modeling of methane and nitrogen gas emissions. This proposal thus meets the requirements of the SciDAC RFP, by integrating state-of-the-art computer science and earth system to build an improved earth system model.« less

Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Visser, Marcel E

2017-06-19

More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483865

Fire and climate suitability for woody vegetation communities in the south central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stroh, Esther; Struckhoff, Matthew; Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.

2018-01-01

using a physical chemistry fire frequency model. We then used the fire probability data with additional climate parameters to construct maximum entropy environmental suitability models for three south central US vegetation communities. The modeled communities included an oak type (dominated by post oak, Quercus stellata Wangenh., and blackjack oak, Q. marilandica Münchh.), a mesquite type (dominated by honey mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa Torr., and velvet mesquite, P. velutina Wooton), and a pinyon−juniper type (dominated by pinyon pine, Pinus edulis Engelm., and Utah juniper, Juniperus osteosperma [Torr.] Little). We mapped baseline and future mean fire-climate suitability using data from three global climate models for 2040 to 2069 and 2070 to 2099; we also mapped future locations of threshold conditions for which all three models agreed on suitability for each community. Future projections included northward, southward, and eastward shifts in suitable conditions for the oaks along a broad path of fire-climate stability; an overall reduction in suitable area for historic mesquite communities coupled with potential expansion to new areas; and constriction and isolation of suitable conditions for pinyon−juniper communities. The inclusion of fire probability adds an important driver of vegetation distribution to climate envelope modeling. The simple models showed good fit, but future projections failed to account for future management activities or land use changes. Results provided information on potential future de-coupling and spatial re-arrangement of environmental conditions under which these communities have historically persisted and been managed. In particular, consensus threshold maps can inform long-term planning for maintenance or restoration of these communities, and they can be used as a potential tool for other communities in fire-prone environments within the study area and beyond its borders.

Dryland feedbacks to climatic change: Results from a climate manipulation experiment on the Colorado Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, S.; Belnap, J.; Ferrenberg, S.; Wertin, T. M.; Darrouzet-Nardi, A.; Tucker, C.; Rutherford, W. A.

2015-12-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems cover ~40% of Earth's terrestrial surface and make up ~35% of the U.S., yet we know surprisingly little about how climate change will affect these widespread landscapes. Like many dryland regions, the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern U.S. is predicted to experience climate change as elevated temperature and altered timing and amount of annual precipitation. We are using a long-term (>10 yr) factorial warming and supplemental rainfall experiment on the Colorado Plateau to explore how predicted changes in climate will affect vascular plant and biological soil crust community composition, biogeochemical cycling, and energy balance (biocrusts are a surface soil community of moss, lichen, and cyanobacteria that can make up as much as 70% of the living cover in drylands). While some of the responses we have observed were expected, many of the results are surprising. For example, we documented biocrust community composition shifts in response to altered climate that were significantly faster and more dramatic than considered likely for these soil communities that typically change over decadal and centennial timescales. Further, while we continue to observe important climate change effects on carbon cycling - including reduced net photosynthesis in vascular plants, increased CO2 losses from biocrust soils during some seasons, and changes to the interactions between water and carbon cycles - we have also found marked treatment effects on the albedo and spectral signatures of dryland soils. In addition to demonstrating the effects of these treatments, the strong relationships we observed in our experiments between biota and climate provide a quantitative framework for improving our representation of dryland responses to climate change. In this talk we will cover a range of datasets that, taken together, show: (1) large climate-driven changes to dryland biogeochemical cycling may be the result of both effects on existing communities, as well of relatively rapid shifts in community composition; (2) drylands could provide feedbacks to future climate not only though altered carbon cycling but also via changes to surface albedo; and (3) models of dryland responses to climate change may need significant revision, but such a revision is well within reach.

Nantucket, Ma. Climate Protection Action Plan: A Public Outreach Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrik, C.; Stephenson, A.; Petsch, S.

2009-12-01

As communities and municipalities gain a better understanding of climate change, they are exploring the ways in which to work towards adaptation and mitigation. One strategy that the Island of Nantucket, Massachusetts turned toward is the drafting of a Climate Protection Action Plan (CPAP). The CPAP was developed during the summer of 2009 to meet three goals: (1) assist the Town of Nantucket in creating a framework to help them reduce CO2 emissions; (2) educate the municipality and community in techniques that promote energy efficiency and sustainability on the island; and (3) document past, present and future approaches adopted by the Town towards emissions reduction and energy sustainability. In particular, this project focused on using local strengths and natural resources identified by island stakeholders that may help the island to mitigate carbon emissions and adapt to climate change.. Drafting the CPAP provided community members and politicians with an opportunity to become better educated in the science of climate change and to learn how climate change will affect their community. On the island of Nantucket, leaders in the religious, civic, and political communities were brought into a conversation about how each group could contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A geosciences graduate student was brought into the CPAP team as a climate fellow to facilitate this conversation. This provided the foundation for stakeholder recommendations incorporated into the CPAP. This capacity-building model served as an effective way to create an informal learning environment about climate change that allowed members of the island community to directly participate in developing their locally appropriate climate protection strategy. The draft CPAP developed through this study and presented to the Town of Nantucket comprises assessments and recommendations in public research and education; building and energy efficiency; transportation; renewable energy; and carbon offsets. Through the drafting of these types of Plans, geoscientists have the unique opportunity to offer a scientific foundation to communities that are looking to better understand climate change, its projected affects, and how they can best develop plans for mitigation and adaptation.

Temporally increasing spatial synchrony of North American temperature and bird populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koenig, Walter D.; Liebhold, Andrew M.

2016-06-01

The ecological impacts of modern global climate change are detectable in a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from shifts in species ranges to changes in community composition and human disease dynamics. So far, however, little attention has been given to temporal changes in spatial synchrony--the coincident change in abundance or value across the landscape--despite the importance of environmental synchrony as a driver of population trends and the central role of environmental variability in population rescue and extinction. Here we demonstrate that across North America, spatial synchrony of a significant proportion of 49 widespread North American wintering bird species has increased over the past 50 years--the period encompassing particularly intense anthropogenic effects in climate--paralleling significant increases in spatial synchrony of mean maximum air temperature. These results suggest the potential for increased spatial synchrony in environmental factors to be affecting a wide range of ecological phenomena. These effects are likely to vary, but for North American wildlife species, increased spatial synchrony driven by environmental factors may be the basis for a previously unrecognized threat to their long-term persistence in the form of more synchronized population dynamics reducing the potential for demographic rescue among interacting subpopulations.

Headwater streams and forest management: Does ecoregional context influence logging effects on benthic communities?

Treesearch

R. Bruce Medhurst; Mark S. Wipfli; Chris Binckley; Karl Polivka; Paul F. Hessburg; R. Brion. Salter

2010-01-01

Effects of forest management on stream communities have been widely documented, but the role that climate plays in the disturbance outcomes is not understood. In order to determine whether the effect of disturbance from forest management on headwater stream communities varies by climate, we evaluated benthic macroinvertebrate communities in 24 headwater streams that...

Recognizing Community Voice and a Youth-Led School-Community Partnership in the School Climate Improvement Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ice, Megan; Thapa, Amrit; Cohen, Jonathan

2015-01-01

A growing body of school improvement research suggests that engaging all members of the school community, including community members and leaders, provides an essential foundation to successful school improvement efforts. School climate surveys to date tend to recognize student, parent/guardian, and school personnel voice but not the voice of…

Integrating plant ecological responses to climate extremes from individual to ecosystem levels.

PubMed

Felton, Andrew J; Smith, Melinda D

2017-06-19

Climate extremes will elicit responses from the individual to the ecosystem level. However, only recently have ecologists begun to synthetically assess responses to climate extremes across multiple levels of ecological organization. We review the literature to examine how plant responses vary and interact across levels of organization, focusing on how individual, population and community responses may inform ecosystem-level responses in herbaceous and forest plant communities. We report a high degree of variability at the individual level, and a consequential inconsistency in the translation of individual or population responses to directional changes in community- or ecosystem-level processes. The scaling of individual or population responses to community or ecosystem responses is often predicated upon the functional identity of the species in the community, in particular, the dominant species. Furthermore, the reported stability in plant community composition and functioning with respect to extremes is often driven by processes that operate at the community level, such as species niche partitioning and compensatory responses during or after the event. Future research efforts would benefit from assessing ecological responses across multiple levels of organization, as this will provide both a holistic and mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to increasing climatic variability.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Bacterial responses to environmental change on the Tibetan Plateau over the past half century.

PubMed

Liu, Yongqin; Priscu, John C; Yao, Tandong; Vick-Majors, Trista J; Xu, Baiqing; Jiao, Nianzhi; Santibáñez, Pamela; Huang, Sijun; Wang, Ninglian; Greenwood, Mark; Michaud, Alexander B; Kang, Shichang; Wang, Jianjun; Gao, Qun; Yang, Yunfeng

2016-06-01

Climate change and anthropogenic factors can alter biodiversity and can lead to changes in community structure and function. Despite the potential impacts, no long-term records of climatic influences on microbial communities exist. The Tibetan Plateau is a highly sensitive region that is currently undergoing significant alteration resulting from both climate change and increased human activity. Ice cores from glaciers in this region serve as unique natural archives of bacterial abundance and community composition, and contain concomitant records of climate and environmental change. We report high-resolution profiles of bacterial density and community composition over the past half century in ice cores from three glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau. Statistical analysis showed that the bacterial community composition in the three ice cores converged starting in the 1990s. Changes in bacterial community composition were related to changing precipitation, increasing air temperature and anthropogenic activities in the vicinity of the plateau. Collectively, our ice core data on bacteria in concert with environmental and anthropogenic proxies indicate that the convergence of bacterial communities deposited on glaciers across a wide geographical area and situated in diverse habitat types was likely induced by climatic and anthropogenic drivers. © 2015 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. While there has been long-standing concern over impacts of 5 physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is also increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, USA, we examined the effects of 10 years of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities, and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical 10 disturbance (>10 years of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increased cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects 15 on lichens. While the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed by the climate treatments used in our study.

Community shifts under climate change: mechanisms at multiple scales.

PubMed

Gornish, Elise S; Tylianakis, Jason M

2013-07-01

Processes that drive ecological dynamics differ across spatial scales. Therefore, the pathways through which plant communities and plant-insect relationships respond to changing environmental conditions are also expected to be scale-dependent. Furthermore, the processes that affect individual species or interactions at single sites may differ from those affecting communities across multiple sites. We reviewed and synthesized peer-reviewed literature to identify patterns in biotic or abiotic pathways underpinning changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities under three components of climate change (increasing temperature, CO2, and changes in precipitation) and how these differ across spatial scales. We also explored how these changes to plants affect plant-insect interactions. The relative frequency of biotic vs. abiotic pathways of climate effects at larger spatial scales often differ from those at smaller scales. Local-scale studies show variable responses to climate drivers, often driven by biotic factors. However, larger scale studies identify changes to species composition and/or reduced diversity as a result of abiotic factors. Differing pathways of climate effects can result from different responses of multiple species, habitat effects, and differing effects of invasions at local vs. regional to global scales. Plant community changes can affect higher trophic levels as a result of spatial or phenological mismatch, foliar quality changes, and plant abundance changes, though studies on plant-insect interactions at larger scales are rare. Climate-induced changes to plant communities will have considerable effects on community-scale trophic exchanges, which may differ from the responses of individual species or pairwise interactions.

78 FR 32628 - Western Pacific Fishery Management Council; Public Meetings; Correction

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-31

... on Protected Species Issues D. Fishery Community Engagement i. Hawaii High School Summer Course ii...--Potential Impacts on Hawaii Communities from Climate Change A. Sea-level Rise B. Ocean Acidification C... Climate Change and Cultural Resource Adaptation 7. Law and Policy for Climate Change Impacts 8. Other...

Sensitivity of grassland plant community composition to spatial vs. temporal variation in precipitation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate gradients shape spatial variation in the richness and composition of plant communities. Given future predicted changes in climate means and variability, and likely regional variation in the magnitudes of these changes, it is important to determine how temporal variation in climate influences...

78 FR 69104 - Second Allocation, Waivers, and Alternative Requirements for Grantees Receiving Community...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-18

... analyses of risks to infrastructure sectors from climate change and other hazards, such as the Northeast... interdependencies within and across communities and infrastructure sectors; changes to climate and development... biodiversity, and conserve natural resources in the face of a changing climate . . .'' h. HUD Review of Covered...

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France)

PubMed Central

Royer, Aurélien; Montuire, Sophie; Legendre, Serge; Discamps, Emmanuel; Jeannet, Marcel; Lécuyer, Christophe

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød. PMID:26789523

Increasing Communities Capacity to Effectively Address Climate Change Through Education, Civic Engagement and Workforce Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Ledley, T. S.; Stanton, C.; Fraser, J.; Scowcroft, G. A.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes, effects, risks, and developing the social will and skills for responses to global change is a major challenge of the 21st century that requires coordinated contributions from the sciences, social sciences, humanities, arts, and beyond. There have been many effective efforts to implement climate change education, civic engagement and related workforce development programs focused on a multitude of audiences, topics and in multiple regions. This talk will focus on how comprehensive educational efforts across our communities are needed to support cities and their primary industries as they prepare for, and embrace, a low-carbon economy and develop the related workforce.While challenges still exist in identifying and coordinating all stakeholders, managing and leveraging resources, and resourcing and scaling effective programs to increase impact and reach, climate and energy literacy leaders have developed initiatives with broad input to identify the understandings and structures for climate literacy collective impact and to develop regional/metropolitan strategy that focuses its collective impact efforts on local climate issues, impacts and opportunities. This Climate Literacy initiative envisions education as a central strategy for community's civic actions in the coming decades by key leaders who have the potential to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities to seize opportunity and prosperity in a post-carbon and resilient future. This talk discusses the advances and collaborations in the Climate Change Education community over the last decade by U.S. federal and non-profit organization that have been made possible through the partnerships of the Climate Literacy & Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, and the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative.

Combined effects of climatic gradient and domestic livestock grazing on reptile community structure in a heterogeneous agroecosystem.

PubMed

Rotem, Guy; Gavish, Yoni; Shacham, Boaz; Giladi, Itamar; Bouskila, Amos; Ziv, Yaron

2016-01-01

Grazing plays an important role in shaping ecological communities in human-related ecosystems. Although myriad studies have explored the joint effect of grazing and climate on plant communities, this interactive effect has rarely been studied in animals. We hypothesized that the effect of grazing on the reptile community varies along a climatic gradient in relation to the effect of grazing on habitat characteristics, and that grazing differentially affects reptiles of different biogeographic regions. We tested our hypotheses by collecting data on environmental characteristics and by trapping reptiles in four heterogeneous landscapes experiencing differing grazing intensities and distributed along a sharp climatic gradient. We found that while reptile diversity increased with grazing intensity at the mesic end of the gradient, it decreased with grazing intensity at the arid end. Moreover, the proportion of reptile species of differing biogeographic origins varied with the interactive effect of climate and grazing. The representation of species originating in arid biogeographic zones was highest at the arid end of the climatic gradient, and representation increased with grazing intensity within this area. Regardless of the climatic context, increased grazing pressure results in a reduction in vegetation cover and thus in changes in habitat characteristics. By reducing vegetation cover, grazing increased habitat heterogeneity in the dense mesic sites and decreased habitat heterogeneity in the arid sites. Thus, our results suggest that the same direction of habitat alteration caused by grazing may have opposite effects on biodiversity and community composition in different climatic contexts.

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feyrer, Frederick V.; Cloern, James E.; Brown, Larry R.; Fish, Maxfield; Hieb, Kathryn; Baxter, Randall

2015-01-01

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land–sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean–atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980–2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0–1), oligohaline (salinity = 1–12), mesohaline (salinity = 6–19), polyhaline (salinity = 19–28), and euhaline (salinity = 29–32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins.

PubMed

Feyrer, Frederick; Cloern, James E; Brown, Larry R; Fish, Maxfield A; Hieb, Kathryn A; Baxter, Randall D

2015-10-01

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Convening Young Leaders for Climate Resilience in New York State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

This project, led by The Wild Center, will partner with Cornell Cooperative Extension of Delaware County, the Kurt Hahn Expeditionary Learning School in Brooklyn, and the Alliance for Climate Education to do the following over three years: 1) increase climate literacy and preparedness planning in high school students through place-based Youth Climate Summits in the Adirondacks, Catskills, and New York City; 2) enhance young people's capacity to lead on climate issues through a Youth Climate Leadership Practicum 3) increase teacher comprehension and understanding of climate change through a Teacher Climate Institute and 4) communicate climate change impacts and resilience through student-driven Community Climate Outreach activities. The project will align with New York State's climate resiliency planning by collaborating with the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation Office of Climate (OCC), NYS Energy Research Development Authority (NYSERDA), and NOAA's Climate Program Office to provide accurate scientific information, resources, and tools. This collaboration will result in an increase in understanding of the impacts of climate change in rural (Adirondacks, Catskills) and urban (New York City) regions of New York State; a wider awareness of the threats and vulnerabilities that are associated with a community's location; and a stronger connection between current community resilience initiatives, educators, and youth. All three of the project sites are critically underserved in both climate literacy and action, making addressing the need of these sites to be resilient and proactive in the face of climate change critical. Our model will provide pilot lessons for how youth in both rural and urban areas can draw on local assets to address resiliency in ways appropriate for their own areas, and these lessons may be able to be applied across the United States.The proposed project is informed by best practices and specifically strengthens and replicates The Wild Center's past success with the Adirondack Youth Climate Summit, student leadership, and student-led community outreach for climate awareness - all work that has been tested or piloted over the last seven years.

Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Bryan N.; Rezny, Michael; Budich, Reinhard; Bauer, Peter; Behrens, Jörg; Carter, Mick; Deconinck, Willem; Ford, Rupert; Maynard, Christopher; Mullerworth, Steven; Osuna, Carlos; Porter, Andrew; Serradell, Kim; Valcke, Sophie; Wedi, Nils; Wilson, Simon

2018-05-01

Weather and climate models are complex pieces of software which include many individual components, each of which is evolving under pressure to exploit advances in computing to enhance some combination of a range of possible improvements (higher spatio-temporal resolution, increased fidelity in terms of resolved processes, more quantification of uncertainty, etc.). However, after many years of a relatively stable computing environment with little choice in processing architecture or programming paradigm (basically X86 processors using MPI for parallelism), the existing menu of processor choices includes significant diversity, and more is on the horizon. This computational diversity, coupled with ever increasing software complexity, leads to the very real possibility that weather and climate modelling will arrive at a chasm which will separate scientific aspiration from our ability to develop and/or rapidly adapt codes to the available hardware. In this paper we review the hardware and software trends which are leading us towards this chasm, before describing current progress in addressing some of the tools which we may be able to use to bridge the chasm. This brief introduction to current tools and plans is followed by a discussion outlining the scientific requirements for quality model codes which have satisfactory performance and portability, while simultaneously supporting productive scientific evolution. We assert that the existing method of incremental model improvements employing small steps which adjust to the changing hardware environment is likely to be inadequate for crossing the chasm between aspiration and hardware at a satisfactory pace, in part because institutions cannot have all the relevant expertise in house. Instead, we outline a methodology based on large community efforts in engineering and standardisation, which will depend on identifying a taxonomy of key activities - perhaps based on existing efforts to develop domain-specific languages, identify common patterns in weather and climate codes, and develop community approaches to commonly needed tools and libraries - and then collaboratively building up those key components. Such a collaborative approach will depend on institutions, projects, and individuals adopting new interdependencies and ways of working.

Humor Climate of the Primary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Ahmet

2018-01-01

The aim of this study is to determine the opinions primary school administrators and teachers on humor climates in primary schools. The study was modeled as a convergent parallel design, one of the mixed methods. The data gathered from 253 administrator questionnaires, and 651 teacher questionnaires was evaluated for the quantitative part of the…

Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

2010-09-01

This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change.

PubMed

Lancaster, Lesley T; Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N

2017-01-19

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change

PubMed Central

Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N.

2017-01-01

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’. PMID:27920390

Climate change and health research: has it served rural communities?

PubMed

Bell, Erica J

2013-01-01

If climate change is the 21st Century's biggest public health threat, research faces the major challenge of providing adequate evidence for vulnerable communities to adapt to the health effects of climate change. Available information about best practice in climate adaptation suggests it is inclusive of socio-economic disadvantage and local community factors such as access to health services. Since 1995, at least 19 164 papers have been published on climate change in the health sciences and social sciences. This body of literature has not yet been systematically examined for how well it serves rural communities. The ultimate aim of the study was to contribute to better understandings about what climate adaptation research has been done and is needed for rural communities. The two research questions were: 'What kinds of content define climate change research in disciplines that could potentially contribute to adaptation for health?' and 'How is content about rural and Aboriginal communities and best practice in adaptation related to this content?' A quantitative content analysis was performed using 'computational linguistics' Leximancer software. The analysis included 19 164 health and social sciences abstracts, batched by years, from 1 January 1995 to 31 July 2012. The relative frequency and co-occurrence of 52 concepts in these abstracts were mapped, as well as associations with positive or negative sentiment for selected concepts. Aboriginal' concepts tend to be relatively infrequent (3% and 5% overall likelihood of occurrence, respectively) and are more associated with socio-economic concepts in the social sciences than the health sciences. Multiple concepts in the health sciences literature are typically connected with 'disease' and ultimately 'science' storylines, with a 38% likelihood of paired co-occurrence of 'health' and 'disease' concepts alone. The social sciences appear more focused on the local and particular issues of community in climate change than the health sciences. 'Rural' and 'Aboriginal' concepts have increased by 1% across both discipline areas, since 2011 for the 'rural' concept and since 2004 for the 'Aboriginal' concept. 'Health' concepts in the health sciences and 'economic' concepts in the social sciences, as well as 'urban' concepts, are referred to more positively than either the 'rural' or 'Aboriginal' concepts. While care needs to be taken in interpreting the results of this study too negatively for rural and Aboriginal communities, they suggest that a disease focus dominates climate and health research typically unconnected to wider socio-economic and human system factors. This finding needs to be considered in light of the accumulating evidence of the importance of such contextual systemic factors in understanding climate and health effects and responses. The study adds some support to the view that a key priority is bringing the learnings of applied community-based researchers, from those in rural health to those in the social sciences, to climate research. There is a need to build confidence, including in the rural health sector which has arguably been slow to participate in programs of climate change research, that community-based research could make a difference to rural health in a climate-changing world.

SciSpark: Highly Interactive and Scalable Model Evaluation and Climate Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Loikith, P.; Lee, H.; McGibbney, L. J.; Whitehall, K. D.

2014-12-01

Remote sensing data and climate model output are multi-dimensional arrays of massive sizes locked away in heterogeneous file formats (HDF5/4, NetCDF 3/4) and metadata models (HDF-EOS, CF) making it difficult to perform multi-stage, iterative science processing since each stage requires writing and reading data to and from disk. We are developing a lightning fast Big Data technology called SciSpark based on ApacheTM Spark. Spark implements the map-reduce paradigm for parallel computing on a cluster, but emphasizes in-memory computation, "spilling" to disk only as needed, and so outperforms the disk-based ApacheTM Hadoop by 100x in memory and by 10x on disk, and makes iterative algorithms feasible. SciSpark will enable scalable model evaluation by executing large-scale comparisons of A-Train satellite observations to model grids on a cluster of 100 to 1000 compute nodes. This 2nd generation capability for NASA's Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) will compute simple climate metrics at interactive speeds, and extend to quite sophisticated iterative algorithms such as machine-learning (ML) based clustering of temperature PDFs, and even graph-based algorithms for searching for Mesocale Convective Complexes. The goals of SciSpark are to: (1) Decrease the time to compute comparison statistics and plots from minutes to seconds; (2) Allow for interactive exploration of time-series properties over seasons and years; (3) Decrease the time for satellite data ingestion into RCMES to hours; (4) Allow for Level-2 comparisons with higher-order statistics or PDF's in minutes to hours; and (5) Move RCMES into a near real time decision-making platform. We will report on: the architecture and design of SciSpark, our efforts to integrate climate science algorithms in Python and Scala, parallel ingest and partitioning (sharding) of A-Train satellite observations from HDF files and model grids from netCDF files, first parallel runs to compute comparison statistics and PDF's, and first metrics quantifying parallel speedups and memory & disk usage.

Species selection under long-term experimental warming and drought explained by climatic distributions.

PubMed

Liu, Daijun; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Estiarte, Marc; Tielbörger, Katja; Slowik, Fabian; Yang, Xiaohong; Bilton, Mark C

2018-03-01

Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael Y; Bell, Jacob N; Berner, James E; Warren, John A

2011-06-01

Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered. The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making. A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.

Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution).

PubMed

Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

2011-12-01

Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg(-1) dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (A(sat)) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A(sat) in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Changing Minds about the Changing Climate: a Longitudinal Study of the Impacts of a Climate Change Curriculum on Undergraduate Student Knowledge and Attitudes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.

2016-12-01

In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

PubMed Central

Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

Raising Awareness about Climate Change in Pacific Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Karen Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Community-based climate change projects in the Pacific typically seek to raise the awareness of locals about the consequences of climate change and changing weather patterns. A key concern is that such activities might be done in an ad hoc manner, with little consideration of local relevance, audience and the integration of local experiences and…

Examining the Complexity of the Campus Racial Climate at a Hispanic Serving Community College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuellar, Marcela; Johnson-Ahorlu, Robin Nicole

2016-01-01

Objective: Despite the growing representation of Hispanic Serving Institutions (HSIs) among community colleges, relatively little is known about student perceptions of the campus climate at these institutions. Although perceptions of campus climate may differ by race and adversely affect students of color, most research has been conducted at…

Climate interacts with soil to produce beta diversity in Californian plant communities.

PubMed

Fernandez-Going, B M; Harrison, S P; Anacker, B L; Safford, H D

2013-09-01

Spatially distinct communities can arise through interactions and feedbacks between abiotic and biotic factors. We suggest that, for plants, patches of infertile soils such as serpentine may support more distinct communities from those in the surrounding non-serpentine matrix in regions where the climate is more productive (i.e., warmer and/or wetter). Where both soil fertility and climatic productivity are high, communities may be dominated by plants with fast-growing functional traits, whereas where either soils or climate impose low productivity, species with stress-tolerant functional traits may predominate. As a result, both species and functional composition may show higher dissimilarity between patch and matrix in productive climates. This pattern may be reinforced by positive feedbacks, in which higher plant growth under favorable climate and soil conditions leads to higher soil fertility, further enhancing plant growth. For 96 pairs of sites across a 200-km latitudinal gradient in California, we found that the species and functional dissimilarities between communities on infertile serpentine and fertile non-serpentine soils were higher in more productive (wetter) regions. Woody species had more stress-tolerant functional traits on serpentine than non-serpentine soil, and as rainfall increased, woody species functional composition changed toward fast-growing traits on non-serpentine, but not on serpentine soils. Soil organic matter increased with rainfall, but only on non-serpentine soils, and the difference in organic matter between soils was positively correlated with plant community dissimilarity. These results illustrate a novel mechanism wherein climatic productivity is associated with higher species, functional, and landscape-level dissimilarity (beta diversity).

Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X.

2014-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections.

Introduction to Climate Change from an Indigenous Perspective: an undergraduate course developed by and for Tribal Colleges and Universities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K. A.; Pandya, R. E.; Kahn-Thornbrugh, C.; Newberry, T.; Carroll, M.; Guinn, M.; Vanlopik, W.; Haines, C.; Wildcat, D.

2010-12-01

Thirty-six Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs) serve over 20,000 Native American undergraduate students across the US. TCUs were created in response to the higher education needs of American Indians and generally serve geographically isolated populations that have no other means accessing education beyond the high school level. TCUs have become increasingly important to educational opportunity for Native American students and are unique institutions that combine personal attention with cultural relevance to encourage Native Americans to overcome the barriers they face to higher education. The American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC) coordinated development of a semester-long geosciences program of study with a unique curriculum that introduces tribal college students to multiple disciplines in the geosciences within the topic of global climate change. Importantly, the curriculum structure does not parallel typical college climate change survey courses, but rather is taught from the perspective of the traditional ecological knowledge held by native peoples of North America. The richly varied history, geography, ecology, culture and scientific knowledge of Native American tribes across the US serves as the starting point from which students are taught about atmospheric and earth sciences and the connection of climate change to all our lives. In addition, examples and case studies focusing specifically on tribal lands foster the development of future Native American leaders with the scientific, technological and cultural skills required to assist tribal communities in managing their lands and maintaining their cultures as they face a climate-altered future. The "Introduction to Climate Change from an Indigenous Perspective" curriculum was developed by tribal college faculty from multiple institutions through a collaborative workshop process. The course was piloted and taught at 5 tribal colleges during spring semester 2010. This presentation provides an overview of the course goals, content and delivery.

Change Orientations: The Effects of Organizational Climate on Principal, Teacher, and Community Transformation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Page A.; Maika, Sean A.

2008-01-01

This research investigates the openness that teachers and principals have to change--specifically, the openness of the faculty to community pressure for change. Three dimensions of change are examined (teacher, principal, and community), as well as four aspects of organizational climate (institutional vulnerability, collegial leadership,…

The Climate Change--Social Change Relationship.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Russell, David

1992-01-01

Argues that the scientific community cannot evoke the desired response from the general community concerning environmental problems, such as climate change, simply by warning the community of its dangers. Discusses the need for new meaning systems arising out of new ways of relating and communicating with each other about our ecology. (MDH)

Interactions among vegetation, climate, and herbivory control greenhouse gas fluxes in a subarctic coastal wetland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelsey, K.C.; Leffler, A.J.; Beard, K.H.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Choi, R.T.; Welker, J.M.

2016-01-01

High-latitude ecosystems are experiencing the most rapid climate changes globally, and in many areas these changes are concurrent with shifts in patterns of herbivory. Individually, climate and herbivory are known to influence biosphere-atmosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) exchange; however, the interactive effects of climate and herbivory in driving GHG fluxes have been poorly quantified, especially in coastal systems that support large populations of migratory waterfowl. We investigated the magnitude and the climatic and physical controls of GHG exchange within the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska across four distinct vegetation communities formed by herbivory and local microtopography. Net CO2 flux was greatest in the ungrazed Carex meadow community (3.97 ± 0.58 [SE] µmol CO2 m−2 s−1), but CH4 flux was greatest in the grazed community (14.00 ± 6.56 nmol CH4 m−2 s−1). The grazed community is also the only vegetation type where CH4 was a larger contributor than CO2 to overall GHG forcing. We found that vegetation community was an important predictor of CO2 and CH4 exchange, demonstrating that variation in regional gas exchange is best explained when the effect of grazing, determined by the difference between grazed and ungrazed communities, is included. Further, we identified an interaction between temperature and vegetation community, indicating that grazed regions could experience the greatest increases in CH4 emissions with warming. These results suggest that future GHG fluxes could be influenced by both climate and by changes in herbivore population dynamics that expand or contract the vegetation community most responsive to future temperature change.

Conventionalism and Methodological Standards in Contending with Skepticism about Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brumble, K. C.

2012-12-01

What it means to measure and interpret confidence and uncertainty in a result is often particular to a specific scientific community and its methodology of verification. Additionally, methodology in the sciences varies greatly across disciplines and scientific communities. Understanding the accuracy of predictions of a particular science thus depends largely upon having an intimate working knowledge of the methods, standards, and conventions utilized and underpinning discoveries in that scientific field. Thus, valid criticism of scientific predictions and discoveries must be conducted by those who are literate in the field in question: they must have intimate working knowledge of the methods of the particular community and of the particular research under question. The interpretation and acceptance of uncertainty is one such shared, community-based convention. In the philosophy of science, this methodological and community-based way of understanding scientific work is referred to as conventionalism. By applying the conventionalism of historian and philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn to recent attacks upon methods of multi-proxy mean temperature reconstructions, I hope to illuminate how climate skeptics and their adherents fail to appreciate the need for community-based fluency in the methodological standards for understanding uncertainty shared by the wider climate science community. Further, I will flesh out a picture of climate science community standards of evidence and statistical argument following the work of philosopher of science Helen Longino. I will describe how failure to appreciate the conventions of professionalism and standards of evidence accepted in the climate science community results in the application of naïve falsification criteria. Appeal to naïve falsification in turn has allowed scientists outside the standards and conventions of the mainstream climate science community to consider themselves and to be judged by climate skeptics as valid critics of particular statistical reconstructions with naïve and misapplied methodological criticism. Examples will include the skeptical responses to multi-proxy mean temperature reconstructions and congressional hearings criticizing the work of Michael Mann et al.'s Hockey Stick.

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

PubMed

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

PubMed Central

Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

2015-12-01

Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory environment where these data may then be correlated with regional climate data to investigate interactions between large-scale environmental changes and local impacts. Esri's Story Maps is a candidate mechanism for sharing of those findings among Tribal stakeholders.

Long-term changes in composition and distribution patterns in the Iberian herpetofaunal communities since the latest Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisbal-Chinesta, Josep Francesc; Blain, Hugues-Alexandre

2018-03-01

The climate has undergone significant changes since the end of the Last Glacial Maximum and in the course of the Holocene, parallel to important cultural transformations and migrations in the human communities. The faunal record has also suffered the effects of climate change. Amphibians and reptiles in particular have been shown to be highly sensitive because they are very susceptible to temperature alterations due to their ectothermy. This research presents the first approach to the Iberian paleobiogeography of the different species of amphibians and reptiles from the Late Pleistocene (MIS3) to present times, based on a comparative synthesis of the latest research published in recent years and the fossil record of the 58 archaeo-paleontological sites with significant assemblages. The paleoherpetofaunal associations make it possible to establish two major biotic regions during the Late Pleistocene. The first biotic region was located in the center and south of the Iberian Peninsula, with thermophilic species as the most representative taxa. The second biotic region was formed by the Atlantic-Cantabrian facade and the northeast Iberian area, dominated by hygrophilous and Euro-Siberian species, with an absence of Mediterranean species. After the Last Glacial Maximum there was an unprecedented concurrence in the northern Iberian Peninsula of autochthonous taxa from that area with thermophilic species. In the early Holocene, new species with no previous record in the Iberian Peninsula entered northern Iberia from eastern Mediterranean refugia. Finally, the introduction of North African species was the last significant biogeographical change during the Middle-Late Holocene.

The potential roles of science centers in climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.

2012-12-01

The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research may only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. Both scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding the timing, nature and severity of climate change. Thus the need is great for civic conversations regarding climate change adaptation. What roles might science centers play in helping their audiences and communities make decisions about climate change adaptation despite less-than-perfect knowledge? And how might informal and formal education work together on this task? This session will begin with a review of some initial efforts by selected science centers and their partners to engage their audiences in and help their communities grapple with climate change adaptation. It then will conclude with an audience discussion about potential future efforts by science centers both individually and in collaboration with formal education institutions to elevate public and policymaker awareness and appreciation of the need for climate change adaptation.

The Role of Social Influences on Pro-Environment Behaviors in the San Diego Region.

PubMed

Estrada, Mica; Schultz, P Wesley; Silva-Send, Nilmini; Boudrias, Michel A

2017-04-01

From a social psychological perspective, addressing the threats of climate change involves not only education, which imparts objective facts upon a passive individual, but also a socializing process. The Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) provides a theoretical framework that connects acquiring climate change knowledge with integration into a community, which results in greater engagement in climate friendly behaviors. Survey data were collected from 1000 residents in San Diego County. Measures included (a) knowledge about climate change; (b) self-efficacy, what pro-environmental actions they felt they could do; (c) identity, to what extent they identified as part of a community that is concerned about climate change; (d) values, endorsement of values of the community that is concerned about climate change; and (e) pro-environmental behavior, engagement in conservation behaviors. Results indicated that self-efficacy and values mediated the relationship between knowledge and pro-environmental behavior.

The Climate Literacy Network: Leveraging a Diverse Community to Broaden the Reach of Your Climate Literacy Efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Carley, S.; Niepold, F.; Duggan-Haas, D. A.; Hollweg, K.; McCaffrey, M. S.

2012-12-01

There are a wide range of programs, activities, and projects focused on improving the understanding of climate science by citizens in a multitude of contexts. While most of these are necessarily customized for the particular audiences, communities, or regions they address, they can learn a lot from each other by sharing their experiences, expertise, and materials. The Climate Literacy Network (CLN, http://cleanet.org/cln), established in 2008 to facilitate the implementation of the Climate Literacy Essential Principles of Climate Science, is a diverse group of over 370 stakeholders with a wide range of expertise in, for example, science, policy, media, arts, economics, psychology, education, and social sciences. The CLN meets virtually weekly to share information about ongoing activities and new resources, discuss controversial public issues and ways to address them, get input from this diverse community on directions individual efforts might take, organize climate literacy sessions at professional meetings, provide input on documents relevant to climate literacy, and address common needs of the individual members. The weekly CLN teleconferences are also a venue for presentations from climate change education efforts to extend their reach and potential impact. The teleconferences are supported by an active listserv that is archived on the CLN website along with recordings of past teleconference and the schedule of upcoming teleconferences (http://cleanet.org/clean/community/cln/telecon_schedule.html). In this presentation we will describe the details of these various activities, give examples of how discussions within the CLN has led to funded efforts and expanded partnerships, and identify ways you can participate in and leverage this very active community.

How the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) Has Collaboratively Increased Regional Collective Impacts on Climate Literacy Via Networks of Diverse Stakeholders Engaging in Multiple Reinforcing Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.

2016-12-01

The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai`i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. PCEP partners include universities, education nonprofits, state or country offices/ministries of education, local ecological nonprofits, and a variety of community organizations. Partners contribute and share expertise in climate science, local ecological knowledge, K-12 education in the Pacific island region, science and environmental education, community college education, learning science, indigenous navigation, and oceanography. Over the past six years, PCEP has engaged with regional school systems and communities in a wide variety of ways that complement and reinforce each other. Highlighted activities include improving country and state climate science education standards; focusing on place-based local ecological knowledge and skills in working with schools and communities; developing and disseminating formal education resources such as books and web resources that focus on local contexts and skills rather than contextually inappropriate mainland the textbooks; developing and implementing professional development for teachers; and supporting local ways of knowing by gathering and sharing local stories of climate change; and promoting an emphasis on climate adaptation strategies that increase resilience of natural environments and community systems.

Integrating World Views, Knowledge and Venues in Climate Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Brunacini, J.; Pfirman, S. L.

2015-12-01

The Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Project integrates traditional and western knowledge and observations in climate science to facilitate dialog and learning among Alaska Native adults about climate change and its impacts on the environment and on Alaskan communities. In one of the models we have tested, the informal education took place at a 4-day camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska. Participants included Alaska Native elders, leaders, educators and natural resource managers, community members and university scientists. Results of pre/post camp surveys showed increased awareness of scientific and technical language used in climate science, improved ability to locate resources, tools, and strategies for learning about climate change, enhanced capacity to communicate climate change in a relevant way to their audiences and communities, confirmed the value of elders in helping them understand, respond and adapt to climate change, and that the camp setting facilitated an in-depth discussion and sharing of knowledge. The camp also enhanced the awareness about weather, climate and the environment of the camp facilitators who also noticed a shift in their own thinking and behavior. After the camp one participant who is an educator shared some of the hands-on tools developed by Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership project and used at the camp, with her 6th grade students, with the other teachers in her school and also at a state conference. Another shared what she learned with her family and friends as well as at a conference sponsored by her faith community where she was an invited speaker. Another camp was scheduled for this past summer but was cancelled due to some unforeseen weather/climate related events. A camp is planned for early summer in 2016; however other models of reaching the adult Native populations in a similar culturally responsive manner as the camps will also be explored and tested.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts.

PubMed

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-09-29

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. Although there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.

Accessing Both Halves of the Brain to Make Climate Decisions: How Community-Sourced Media, Earth Remote Sensing Data, and Creative Placemaking Art Can Cultivate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapkin, J. K.; Wagner, L.

2017-12-01

Decision-making, science tells us, accesses multiple parts of the brain: both logic and data as well as memory and emotion. It is this mix of signals that propels individuals and communities to act. Founded in 2012, ISeeChange is the nation's first community crowdsourced climate and weather journal that empowers users to document environmental changes with others and discuss the impacts over time. Our neighborhood investigation methodology includes residents documenting their personal experiences alongside collected data, Earth remote sensing data, and local artists interpreting community questions and experiences into place-based public art in the neighborhood to inspire a culture of resilience and climate literacy. ISeeChange connects the public with national media, scientists, and data tools that support community dialogue and enable collaborative science and journalism investigations about our changing environment. Our groundbreaking environmental reporting platform—available online and through a mobile app—personalizes and tracks climate change from the perspective of every day experiences, bringing Eearth science home and into the placesspaces people know best and trust most- their own communities Our session will focus on our newest neighborhood pilot program in New Orleans, furthering the climate resilience, green infrastructure, and creative placemaking efforts of the Trust for Public Land, the City of New Orleans, and other resilience community partners.

Elevated air temperature alters an old-field insect community in a multi-factor climate change experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villalpando, Sean; Williams, Ray; Norby, Richard J

To address how multiple, interacting climate drivers may affect plant-insect community associations, we sampled the insect community from a constructed old-field plant community grown under simultaneous [CO2], temperature, and water manipulation. Insects were identified to morphospecies, assigned to feeding guilds and abundance, richness and evenness quantified. Warming significantly increased Order Thysanoptera abundance and reduced overall morphospecies richness and evenness. Non-metric multidimensional scaling clearly supported the effect of warming on insect community composition. Reductions in richness for herbivores and parasitoids suggest trophic-level effects within the insect community. Analysis of dominant insects demonstrated the effects of warming were limited to a relativelymore » small number of morphospecies. Reported reductions in whole-community foliar N at elevated [CO2] unexpectedly did not result in any effects on herbivores. These results demonstrate climatic warming may alter certain insect communities via effects on insect species most responsive to higher temperature, contributing to a change in community structure.« less

Responses of leaf traits to climatic gradients: adaptive variation versus compositional shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, T.-T.; Wang, H.; Harrison, S. P.; Prentice, I. C.; Ni, J.; Wang, G.

2015-09-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) typically rely on plant functional types (PFTs), which are assigned distinct environmental tolerances and replace one another progressively along environmental gradients. Fixed values of traits are assigned to each PFT; modelled trait variation along gradients is thus driven by PFT replacement. But empirical studies have revealed "universal" scaling relationships (quantitative trait variations with climate that are similar within and between species, PFTs and communities); and continuous, adaptive trait variation has been proposed to replace PFTs as the basis for next-generation DGVMs. Here we analyse quantitative leaf-trait variation on long temperature and moisture gradients in China with a view to understanding the relative importance of PFT replacement vs. continuous adaptive variation within PFTs. Leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and nitrogen content of dry matter were measured on all species at 80 sites ranging from temperate to tropical climates and from dense forests to deserts. Chlorophyll fluorescence traits and carbon, phosphorus and potassium contents were measured at 47 sites. Generalized linear models were used to relate log-transformed trait values to growing-season temperature and moisture indices, with or without PFT identity as a predictor, and to test for differences in trait responses among PFTs. Continuous trait variation was found to be ubiquitous. Responses to moisture availability were generally similar within and between PFTs, but biophysical traits (LA, SLA and LDMC) of forbs and grasses responded differently from woody plants. SLA and LDMC responses to temperature were dominated by the prevalence of evergreen PFTs with thick, dense leaves at the warm end of the gradient. Nutrient (N, P and K) responses to climate gradients were generally similar within all PFTs. Area-based nutrients generally declined with moisture; Narea and Karea declined with temperature, but Parea increased with temperature. Although the adaptive nature of many of these trait-climate relationships is understood qualitatively, a key challenge for modelling is to predict them quantitatively. Models must take into account that community-level responses to climatic gradients can be influenced by shifts in PFT composition, such as the replacement of deciduous by evergreen trees, which may run either parallel or counter to trait variation within PFTs. The importance of PFT shifts varies among traits, being important for biophysical traits but less so for physiological and chemical traits. Finally, models should take account of the diversity of trait values that is found in all sites and PFTs, representing the "pool" of variation that is locally available for the natural adaptation of ecosystem function to environmental change.

Scientific workflow and support for high resolution global climate modeling at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantharaj, V.; Mayer, B.; Wang, F.; Hack, J.; McKenna, D.; Hartman-Baker, R.

2012-04-01

The Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) facilitates the execution of computational experiments that require tens of millions of CPU hours (typically using thousands of processors simultaneously) while generating hundreds of terabytes of data. A set of ultra high resolution climate experiments in progress, using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), will produce over 35,000 files, ranging in sizes from 21 MB to 110 GB each. The execution of the experiments will require nearly 70 Million CPU hours on the Jaguar and Titan supercomputers at OLCF. The total volume of the output from these climate modeling experiments will be in excess of 300 TB. This model output must then be archived, analyzed, distributed to the project partners in a timely manner, and also made available more broadly. Meeting this challenge would require efficient movement of the data, staging the simulation output to a large and fast file system that provides high volume access to other computational systems used to analyze the data and synthesize results. This file system also needs to be accessible via high speed networks to an archival system that can provide long term reliable storage. Ideally this archival system is itself directly available to other systems that can be used to host services making the data and analysis available to the participants in the distributed research project and to the broader climate community. The various resources available at the OLCF now support this workflow. The available systems include the new Jaguar Cray XK6 2.63 petaflops (estimated) supercomputer, the 10 PB Spider center-wide parallel file system, the Lens/EVEREST analysis and visualization system, the HPSS archival storage system, the Earth System Grid (ESG), and the ORNL Climate Data Server (CDS). The ESG features federated services, search & discovery, extensive data handling capabilities, deep storage access, and Live Access Server (LAS) integration. The scientific workflow enabled on these systems, and developed as part of the Ultra-High Resolution Climate Modeling Project, allows users of OLCF resources to efficiently share simulated data, often multi-terabyte in volume, as well as the results from the modeling experiments and various synthesized products derived from these simulations. The final objective in the exercise is to ensure that the simulation results and the enhanced understanding will serve the needs of a diverse group of stakeholders across the world, including our research partners in U.S. Department of Energy laboratories & universities, domain scientists, students (K-12 as well as higher education), resource managers, decision makers, and the general public.

COREDAR: COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation stRategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Andimuthu, R.; Kandasamy, P.

2015-12-01

Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is a major long term outcome of climate change leading to increased inundation of low-lying areas. Particularly, global cities that are located on or near the coasts are often situated in low lying areas and these locations put global cities at greater risk to SLR. Localized flooding will profoundly impact vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban areas. Building community resilience and adapting to SLR is increasingly a high priority for cities. On the other hand, Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in decision making process. Importantly, Community Based Adaptation (CBA) experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a community's unique perceptions of their adaptive capacities to identify useful solutions and that scientific and technical information on anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable language and format that allows people to be able to participate in adaptation planning. To address this challenge, this study has put forth three research questions from the lens of urban community engagement in SLR adaptation, (1) What, if any, community engagement in addressing SLR occurring in urban areas; (2) What information do communities need and how does it need to be communicated, in order to be better prepared and have a greater sense of agency? and (3) How can government agencies from city to federal levels facilitate community engagement and action?. To answer these questions this study has evolved a framework "COREDAR" (COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation StRategies) to communicate and transfer complex climate data and information such as projected SLR under different scenarios of IPCC AR5, predicted impact of SLR, prioritizing vulnerability, etc. to concerned stakeholders and local communities, and to engage them in framing actionable urban CBA adaptation strategies to rising sea-level. Thus, this study seeks to provide insights on communicating risk of climate change (SLR) and to develop a robust picture of urban CBA through effective decision making that are grounded in pressing community priorities in a case study approach.

Managing Community Resilience to Climate Extremes, Rapid Unsustainable Urbanization, Emergencies of Scarcity, and Biodiversity Crises by Use of a Disaster Risk Reduction Bank.

PubMed

Canyon, Deon V; Burkle, Frederick M; Speare, Rick

2015-12-01

Earth's climate is changing and national and international decision-makers are recognizing that global health security requires urgent attention and a significant investment to protect the future. In most locations, current data are inadequate to conduct a full assessment of the direct and indirect health impacts of climate change. All states require this information to evaluate community-level resilience to climate extremes and climate change. A model that is being used successfully in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand is recommended to generate rapid information to assist decision-makers in the event of a disaster. The model overcomes barriers to success inherent in the traditional ''top-down'' approach to managing crises and recognizes the capacity of capable citizens and community organizers to facilitate response and recovery if provided the opportunity and resources. Local information is a prerequisite for strategic and tactical statewide planning. Time and resources are required to analyze risks within each community and what is required to prevent (mitigate), prepare, respond, recover (rehabilitate), anticipate, and assess any threatening events. Specific requirements at all levels from state to community must emphasize community roles by focusing on how best to maintain, respond, and recover public health protections and the infrastructure necessary for health security.

LLMapReduce: Multi-Lingual Map-Reduce for Supercomputing Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-20

1990s. Popularized by Google [36] and Apache Hadoop [37], map-reduce has become a staple technology of the ever- growing big data community...Lexington, MA, U.S.A Abstract— The map-reduce parallel programming model has become extremely popular in the big data community. Many big data ...to big data users running on a supercomputer. LLMapReduce dramatically simplifies map-reduce programming by providing simple parallel programming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jain, Atul K.

The overall objectives of this DOE funded project is to combine scientific and computational challenges in climate modeling by expanding our understanding of the biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes and their interactions in the northern high latitudes (NHLs) using an earth system modeling (ESM) approach, and by adopting an adaptive parallel runtime system in an ESM to achieve efficient and scalable climate simulations through improved load balancing algorithms.

Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) cold hardiness and freezing injury susceptibility. Chapter 18

Treesearch

Donald H. DeHayes; Paul G. Schaberg; G.Richard Strimbeck

2001-01-01

To survive subfreezing winter temperatmes, perennial plant species have evolved tissue-specific mechanisms to undergo changes in freezing tolerance that parallel seasonal variations in climate. As such, most northern temperate tree species, including conifers, are adapted to the habitat and climatic conditions within their natural ranges and suffer little or no...

Lichen communities as climate indicators in the U.S. Pacific States.

Treesearch

Robert J. Smith; Sarah Jovan; Bruce McCune

2017-01-01

Epiphytic lichens are bioindicators of climate, air quality, and other forest conditions and may reveal how forests will respond to global changes in the U.S. Pacific States of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, and California. We explored climate indication with lichen communities surveyed by using both the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) and Alaska...

The Relationship between Campus Climate and the Teaching of Critical Thinking Skills in Community College Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, Thomas C.

2010-01-01

Although critical thinking skills are important for all citizens participating in a democratic society, many community college students appear to lack these skills. This study addressed the apparent lack of research relating critical thinking instruction to campus climate. Critical thinking theory and Moos's organizational climate theory served as…

Damming the Brahmaputra: Impacts on the Resilience of Local Communities to Floods and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rampini, C.

2016-12-01

Recurrent destructive floods along the Brahmaputra river basin are a major challenge for the people and state governments of Northeast India. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this challenge, as melting Himalayan glaciers and changes in the South Asian monsoon lead to an increase in the frequency of severe floods. At the same time, the Brahmaputra has become the focus of India's hydropower development efforts, with 140 new dams planned along its main stem and tributaries. Though these dams could provide flood protection for downstream communities, political and economic factors have led dam builders to prioritize hydroelectricity generation over flood control. Using the Ranganadi Hydroelectric Project in Arunachal Pradesh as a case study, this research investigates the effects of dam building on the resilience of downstream communities to floods that are becoming increasingly severe as a result of climate change. Findings suggest that dams in Northeast are eroding downstream communities' resilience to floods by increasing their vulnerability and reducing their adaptive capacity to these natural hazards. The risk is that, as dams and climate change jointly make the floodplains of Northeast India increasingly hazardous, uninhabitable and unproductive, they will push local communities away from these landscapes and agricultural livelihoods and towards more carbon-intensive livelihoods. More broadly this research highlights the danger of pursuing climate change mitigation and renewable energy development projects without considering their impacts on the vulnerability and adaptability of affected communities to climate change.

Sustained Large-Scale Collective Climate Action Supported by Effective Climate Change Education Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F., III; Crim, H.; Fiorile, G.; Eldadah, S.

2017-12-01

Since 2012, the Climate and Energy Literacy community have realized that as cities, nations and the international community seek solutions to global climate change over the coming decades, a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy—one that includes economic and social considerations—will play a vital role in knowledgeable planning, decision-making, and governance. City, county and state leaders are now leading the American response to a changing climate by incubating social innovation to prevail in the face of unprecedented change. Cities are beginning to realize the importance of critical investments to support the policies and strategies that will foster the climate literacy necessary for citizens to understand the urgency of climate actions and to succeed in a resilient post-carbon economy and develop the related workforce. Over decade of federal and non-profit Climate Change Education effective methods have been developed that can support municipality's significant educational capabilities for the purpose of strengthening and scaling city, state, business, and education actions designed to sustain and effectively address this significant social change. Looking to foster the effective and innovative strategies that will enable their communities several networks have collaborated to identify recommendations for effective education and communication practices when working with different types of audiences. U.S. National Science Foundation funded Climate Change Education Partnership (CCEP) Alliance, the National Wildlife Federation, NOAA Climate Program Office, Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Collaborative and the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) are working to develop a new web portal that will highlight "effective" practices that includes the acquisition and use of climate change knowledge to inform decision-making. The purpose of the web portal is to transfer effective practice to support communities to be empowered to address the challenges of a new climate reality and ensure that all people are capable of taking an active role in shaping a sustainable future.

Plants, birds and butterflies: short-term responses of species communities to climate warming vary by taxon and with altitude.

PubMed

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003-2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world.

Plants, Birds and Butterflies: Short-Term Responses of Species Communities to Climate Warming Vary by Taxon and with Altitude

PubMed Central

Roth, Tobias; Plattner, Matthias; Amrhein, Valentin

2014-01-01

As a consequence of climate warming, species usually shift their distribution towards higher latitudes or altitudes. Yet, it is unclear how different taxonomic groups may respond to climate warming over larger altitudinal ranges. Here, we used data from the national biodiversity monitoring program of Switzerland, collected over an altitudinal range of 2500 m. Within the short period of eight years (2003–2010), we found significant shifts in communities of vascular plants, butterflies and birds. At low altitudes, communities of all species groups changed towards warm-dwelling species, corresponding to an average uphill shift of 8 m, 38 m and 42 m in plant, butterfly and bird communities, respectively. However, rates of community changes decreased with altitude in plants and butterflies, while bird communities changed towards warm-dwelling species at all altitudes. We found no decrease in community variation with respect to temperature niches of species, suggesting that climate warming has not led to more homogenous communities. The different community changes depending on altitude could not be explained by different changes of air temperatures, since during the 16 years between 1995 and 2010, summer temperatures in Switzerland rose by about 0.07°C per year at all altitudes. We discuss that land-use changes or increased disturbances may have prevented alpine plant and butterfly communities from changing towards warm-dwelling species. However, the findings are also consistent with the hypothesis that unlike birds, many alpine plant species in a warming climate could find suitable habitats within just a few metres, due to the highly varied surface of alpine landscapes. Our results may thus support the idea that for plants and butterflies and on a short temporal scale, alpine landscapes are safer places than lowlands in a warming world. PMID:24416144

Consideration for Establishing a Positive Community Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crohn, Leslie

This paper presents a synthesis of a national literature search on community climate and quality of life. Its primary focus is on community development as it affects people, i.e., their relationships and interactions with each other and with institutions. The document addresses five major topics: Section I provides definitions of terms and…

Engaging with Underserved Urban Communities on Climate Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akerlof, K.; Moser, F. C.; Baja, K.; Dindinger, J. M.; Chanse, V.; Rowan, K. E.; Rohring, B.

2016-12-01

Meeting the needs of urban high-risk/low-resource communities is one of the most critical challenges in improving climate resilience nationally, but little tailored information exists to guide community engagement efforts specifically for these contexts. This case study describes a collaboration between universities, local governments, and community members working in underserved neighborhoods of the City of Baltimore and Prince George's County, Maryland. In service of current and developing community programs, the team surveyed residents door-to-door about their perceptions of the socio-environmental risks they face, their priorities for change, and the ways in which communication may build protective social capital. We highlight theoretical, applied, and pedagogical aspects of the study that inform both the promise and limitations of these collaborations. These include: 1) the role of citizen participation in climate adaptation decision-making; 2) the meaning, use, and potential impact of community data; 3) balancing differing organizational priorities, timelines, and cultures within community-based projects; and 4) research participation of undergraduate students. The results of the survey illuminate climate risk perceptions in neighborhoods facing complex stressors with lessons for communication and engagement in other urban areas facing similar adaptation challenges.

Gap formation following climatic events in spatially structured plant communities

PubMed Central

Liao, Jinbao; De Boeck, Hans J.; Li, Zhenqing; Nijs, Ivan

2015-01-01

Gaps play a crucial role in maintaining species diversity, yet how community structure and composition influence gap formation is still poorly understood. We apply a spatially structured community model to predict how species diversity and intraspecific aggregation shape gap patterns emerging after climatic events, based on species-specific mortality responses. In multispecies communities, average gap size and gap-size diversity increased rapidly with increasing mean mortality once a mortality threshold was exceeded, greatly promoting gap recolonization opportunity. This result was observed at all levels of species richness. Increasing interspecific difference likewise enhanced these metrics, which may promote not only diversity maintenance but also community invasibility, since more diverse niches for both local and exotic species are provided. The richness effects on gap size and gap-size diversity were positive, but only expressed when species were sufficiently different. Surprisingly, while intraspecific clumping strongly promoted gap-size diversity, it hardly influenced average gap size. Species evenness generally reduced gap metrics induced by climatic events, so the typical assumption of maximum evenness in many experiments and models may underestimate community diversity and invasibility. Overall, understanding the factors driving gap formation in spatially structured assemblages can help predict community secondary succession after climatic events. PMID:26114803

How to Reach Decision Makers: Build a network of educators and practitioners with common goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Gershunov, A.

2013-12-01

In San Diego County, the Climate Education Partners (CEP) includes climate scientists, science educators, behavioral scientists, environmental practitioners and community organizations that are dedicated to providing local decision makers (elected officials, business leaders, community leaders) with sound climate science learning opportunities and resources that promote informed decision making. Their work over the past three years has found that effective climate education programs are designed for specific audiences with tailored information that is relevant to them, while simultaneously building community efficacy, identity and values. An integrated approach that blends rigorous scientific facts, local climate change impact, and social science education theory is contributing towards the development of a cadre of engaged leaders and communities. To track project progress and to inform the project strategy, local Key Influentials are being interviewed to gauge their current understanding of climate change and their interest in either becoming messengers to their community or becoming the portal to their constituency. Innovation comes from productive collaboration. For this reason, CEP has been working with leading scientists (climatologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, ecologists), environmental groups, museums and zoos, media experts and government agencies (Water Authority, CalFire) to develop and refine a program of learning activities and resources geared specifically for Key Influentials. For example, a water tour has been designed to bring 25 key influential leaders in San Diego County to a dam, a pumping station and a reservoir and provide climate change facts, impacts and potential solutions to the critical issue of water supply for the San Diego Region. While learning local facts about the causes and impacts of climate change, participants also learn about what they can do (increasing efficacy), that they can be a part of a solution centered community (building identity), and that everything - the education and the use of this knowledge to promote informed decisions - is connected to doing what is best for the next generation (tying learning to values). In addition, CEP developed locally focused videos, one on heat waves and one on water resources, which are being experimentally tested for their impact on informed decision-making and utilized with various KI audiences. Climate Education Partners is finding that linking excellent science with healthy community partnerships is resulting in San Diego leaders and their communities making more informed decisions on how to adapt to climate change and preserve the quality of life enjoyed in San Diego for all future generations.

DOE Contribution to the 2015 US CLIVAR Project Office Budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeWeaver, Eric; Patterson, Michael

The primary goal of the US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project Office is to enable science community planning and implementation of research to understand and predict climate variability and change on intraseasonal-to-centennial timescales, through observations and modeling with emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system, and to serve the climate community and society through the coordination and facilitation of research on outstanding climate questions.

Lattice Boltzmann modeling of transport phenomena in fuel cells and flow batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ao; Shyy, Wei; Zhao, Tianshou

2017-06-01

Fuel cells and flow batteries are promising technologies to address climate change and air pollution problems. An understanding of the complex multiscale and multiphysics transport phenomena occurring in these electrochemical systems requires powerful numerical tools. Over the past decades, the lattice Boltzmann (LB) method has attracted broad interest in the computational fluid dynamics and the numerical heat transfer communities, primarily due to its kinetic nature making it appropriate for modeling complex multiphase transport phenomena. More importantly, the LB method fits well with parallel computing due to its locality feature, which is required for large-scale engineering applications. In this article, we review the LB method for gas-liquid two-phase flows, coupled fluid flow and mass transport in porous media, and particulate flows. Examples of applications are provided in fuel cells and flow batteries. Further developments of the LB method are also outlined.

A Petascale Non-Hydrostatic Atmospheric Dynamical Core in the HOMME Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tufo, Henry

The High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) is a framework for building scalable, conserva- tive atmospheric models for climate simulation and general atmospheric-modeling applications. Its spatial discretizations are based on Spectral-Element (SE) and Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods. These are local methods employing high-order accurate spectral basis-functions that have been shown to perform well on massively parallel supercomputers at any resolution and scale particularly well at high resolutions. HOMME provides the framework upon which the CAM-SE community atmosphere model dynamical-core is constructed. In its current incarnation, CAM-SE employs the hydrostatic primitive-equations (PE) of motion, which limits its resolution to simulations coarser thanmore » 0.1 per grid cell. The primary objective of this project is to remove this resolution limitation by providing HOMME with the capabilities needed to build nonhydrostatic models that solve the compressible Euler/Navier-Stokes equations.« less

"Nuestra Tierra Dinamica" Global Climate Change STEM Education Fostering Environmental Stewardship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Grave, M.; de Valenzuela, M.; Russell, R.

2012-12-01

CLUB ECO LÓGICO is a democratic and participatory program that provides active citizenship in schools and community, placing climate change into context for the Latino Community. The program's objectives focus on: 1. The Environment. Reducing the school and community impact on the environment through environmental footprint through stewardship actions. 2. Empowerment. Engaging participants through project and service learning and make decisions about how to improve their schools, their homes and their community's environment. 3. Community and Research Partnerships. Fostering collaborations with local community, stakeholders, government, universities, research organizations, and businesses that have expertise in environmental research, management, education and climate change. 4. Awareness. Increasing environmental and climate science knowledge of participants through STEM activities and hands-on access to technology. 5. Research and evaluation. Assessing the relevance of program activities through the engagement of the Latino community in planning and the effectiveness and impact of STEM activities through formative and summative evaluation. To address these objectives, the program has several inter related components in an after school setting: SUN EARTH Connections: Elementary (grades K to 2) students learn the basic climate change concepts through inquiry and hands on STEM activities. Bilingual 8 facilitators adapt relevant NASA educational resources for use in inquiry based, hands on activities. Drama and the arts provide unique experiences as well as play a key role in learning, participation and facilitation. GREEN LABS: Elementary students (grades 3 to 5) participate in stations where each Lab is staffed by at least two professionals: a College level fully bilingual Latin American Professional and a stakeholder representing either a research organization or other relevant environmental organization. Our current Green Lab themes include: Air, Soils, Water, Energy, Health, Waste and Communicating Science. Parental and Community Engagement: Family or Community Nights and community events showcasing student products, videos, and service learning projects in a bilingual format; and presentations by research scientists on climate and environmental science topics of interest to the Latino community. Our events have been highlighted on Univision television evening news, reaching Latinos across the state. Digital Story Telling: Our Video Lab involves Latino high school students who are trained as mentors, encouraged to research climate change topics, meet scientists and learn about video technology. By fall 2013, our HS Video Lab will mentor local middle school students. Throughout the year students take field trips to film and interview key scientists and educators. The project will share lessons learned concerning several issues: 1. What environmental and climate science issues are most relevant for Latinos; 2. What strategies are effective in engaging the Latino community in program planning and in engaging participation; 3. What approaches are effective in developing or adapting environmental and climate science education activities for Latino students and families; 4. How to develop effective partnerships with research and other environmental organizations; 5. How to develop culturally sensitive evaluation strategies.

Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

2015-12-01

Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

Climate-related disaster opens a window of opportunity for rural poor in northeastern Honduras

PubMed Central

McSweeney, Kendra; Coomes, Oliver T.

2011-01-01

Two distinct views are evident in research on how rural communities in developing countries cope with extreme weather events brought by climate change: (i) that the resource-reliant poor are acutely vulnerable and need external assistance to prepare for such events, and (ii) that climate-related shocks can offer windows of opportunity in which latent local adaptive capacities are triggered, leading to systemic improvement. Results from a longitudinal study in a Tawahka community in Honduras before and after Hurricane Mitch (1994–2002) indicate that residents were highly vulnerable to the hurricane—due in part to previous development assistance—and that the poorest households were the hardest hit. Surprisingly, however, the disaster enabled the poor to initiate an institutional change that led to more equitable land distribution, slowed primary forest conversion, and positioned the community well to cope with comparable flooding occurring 10 y later. The study provides compelling evidence that communities can seize on the window of opportunity created by climate-induced shocks to generate sustained social-ecological improvement, and suggests that future interventions should foster local capacities for endogenous institutional change to enhance community resilience to climate shocks. PMID:21402909

Ecological contingency in the effects of climatic warming on forest herb communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, S.; Damschen, E.I.; Grace, J.B.

2010-01-01

Downscalingfromthe predictions ofgeneral climatemodels is critical to current strategies for mitigating species loss caused by climate change. A key impediment to this downscaling is that we lack a fully developed understanding of howvariation in physical, biological, or land-use characteristics mediates the effects of climate change on ecological communities within regions. We analyzed change in understory herb communities over a 60-y period (1949/1951-2007/ 2009) in a complexmontane landscape (the SiskiyouMountains, Oregon) where mean temperatures have increased 2 ??C since 1948, similar to projections for other terrestrial communities. Our 185 sites included primary and secondary-growth lower montane forests (500-1.200 m above sea level) and primary upper montane to subalpine forests (1,500-2,100 m above sea level). In lower montane forests, regardless of land-use history, we found multiple herbcommunity changes consistent with an effectively drier climate, including lower mean specific leaf area, lower relative cover by species of northern biogeographic affinity, and greater compositional resemblance to communities in southerly topographic positions. At higher elevations we found qualitatively different andmoremodest changes, including increases in herbs of northern biogeographic affinity and in forest canopy cover. Our results provide communitylevel validation of predicted nonlinearities in climate change effects.

Emergent properties of climate-vegetation feedbacks in the North American Monsoon Macrosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, A.; Niu, G.; Zeng, X.

2012-12-01

The ability of ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change and associated disturbances (e.g. wildfires, spread of invasive species) is greatly affected by the stability of feedback interactions between climate and vegetation. In order to study climate-vegetation interactions, such as CO2 and H2O exchange in the North American Monsoon System (NAMS), we plan to couple a community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) used in regional climate models (WRF) with an individual based, spatially explicit vegetation model (ECOTONE). Individual based modeling makes it possible to link individual plant traits with properties of plant communities. Community properties, such as species composition and species distribution arise from dynamic interactions of individual plants with each other, and with their environment. Plants interact with each other through intra- and interspecific competition for resources (H2O, nitrogen), and the outcome of these interactions depends on the properties of the plant community and the environment itself. In turn, the environment is affected by the resulting change in community structure, which may have an impact on the drivers of climate change. First, we performed sensitivity tests of ECOTONE to assess its ability to reproduce vegetation distribution in the NAMS. We compared the land surface model and ECOTONE with regard to their capability to accurately simulate soil moisture, CO2 flux and above ground biomass. For evaluating the models we used the eddy-correlation sensible and latent heat fluxes, CO2 flux and observations of other climate and environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and moisture) from the Santa Rita experimental range. The model intercomparison helped us understand the advantages and disadvantages of each model, providing us guidance for coupling the community land surface model (NoahMP or CLM) with ECOTONE.

Microbial Decomposers Not Constrained by Climate History Along a Mediterranean Climate Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, N. R.; Khalili, B.; Martiny, J. B. H.; Allison, S. D.

2017-12-01

The return of organic carbon to the atmosphere through terrestrial decomposition is mediated through the breakdown of complex organic polymers by extracellular enzymes produced by microbial decomposer communities. Determining if and how these decomposer communities are constrained in their ability to degrade plant litter is necessary for predicting how carbon cycling will be affected by future climate change. To address this question, we deployed fine-pore nylon mesh "microbial cage" litterbags containing grassland litter with and without local inoculum across five sites in southern California, spanning a gradient of 10.3-22.8° C in mean annual temperature and 100-400+ mm mean annual precipitation. Litterbags were deployed in October 2014 and collected four times over the course of 14 months. Recovered litter was assayed for mass loss, litter chemistry, microbial biomass, extracellular enzymes (Vmax and Km­), and enzyme temperature sensitivities. We hypothesized that grassland litter would decompose most rapidly in the grassland site, and that access to local microbial communities would enhance litter decomposition rates and microbial activity in the other sites along the gradient. We determined that temperature and precipitation likely interact to limit microbial decomposition in the extreme sites along our gradient. Despite their unique climate history, grassland microbes were not restricted in their ability to decompose litter under different climate conditions. Although we observed a strong correlation between bacterial biomass and mass loss across the gradient, litter that was inoculated with local microbial communities lost less mass despite having greater bacterial biomass and potentially accumulating more microbial residues. Our results suggest that microbial community composition may not constrain C-cycling rates under climate change in our system. However, there may be community constraints on decomposition if climate change alters litter chemistry, a mechanism only indirectly addressed by our design.

Changing times, changing stories: Generational differences in climate change perspectives from four remote indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Matkin, Elli; Laituri, Melinda J.; Toohey, Ryan C; Massey, Maggie; Elder, Kelly; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.

2016-01-01

Indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities currently are facing a myriad of social and environmental changes. In response to these changes, studies concerning indigenous knowledge (IK) and climate change vulnerability, resiliency, and adaptation have increased dramatically in recent years. Risks to lives and livelihoods are often the focus of adaptation research; however, the cultural dimensions of climate change are equally important because cultural dimensions inform perceptions of risk. Furthermore, many Arctic and Subarctic IK climate change studies document observations of change and knowledge of the elders and older generations in a community, but few include the perspectives of the younger population. These observations by elders and older generations form a historical baseline record of weather and climate observations in these regions. However, many indigenous Arctic and Subarctic communities are composed of primarily younger residents. We focused on the differences in the cultural dimensions of climate change found between young adults and elders. We outlined the findings from interviews conducted in four indigenous communities in Subarctic Alaska. The findings revealed that (1) intergenerational observations of change were common among interview participants in all four communities, (2) older generations observed more overall change than younger generations interviewed by us, and (3) how change was perceived varied between generations. We defined “observations” as the specific examples of environmental and weather change that were described, whereas “perceptions” referred to the manner in which these observations of change were understood and contextualized by the interview participants. Understanding the differences in generational observations and perceptions of change are key issues in the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Climate change and indigenous peoples: A synthesis of current impacts and experiences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton-Smith, Kathryn; Lynn, Kathy; Chief, Karletta; Cozetto, Karen; Donatuto, Jamie; Hiza, Margaret; Kruger, Linda; Maldonado, Julie; Viles, Carson; Whyte, Kyle P.

2016-01-01

A growing body of literature examines the vulnerability, risk, resilience, and adaptation of indigenous peoples to climate change. This synthesis of literature brings together research pertaining to the impacts of climate change on sovereignty, culture, health, and economies that are currently being experienced by Alaska Native and American Indian tribes and other indigenous communities in the United States. The knowledge and science of how climate change impacts are affecting indigenous peoples contributes to the development of policies, plans, and programs for adapting to climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This report defines and describes the key frameworks that inform indigenous understandings of climate change impacts and pathways for adaptation and mitigation, namely, tribal sovereignty and self-determination, culture and cultural identity, and indigenous community health indicators. It also provides a comprehensive synthesis of climate knowledge, science, and strategies that indigenous communities are exploring, as well as an understanding of the gaps in research on these issues. This literature synthesis is intended to make a contribution to future efforts such as the 4th National Climate Assessment, while serving as a resource for future research, tribal and agency climate initiatives, and policy development.

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

Effects of Short-Term Warming and Altered Precipitation on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland of the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kaoping; Shi, Yu; Jing, Xin; He, Jin-Sheng; Sun, Ruibo; Yang, Yunfeng; Shade, Ashley; Chu, Haiyan

2016-01-01

Soil microbial communities are influenced by climate change drivers such as warming and altered precipitation. These changes create abiotic stresses, including desiccation and nutrient limitation, which act on microbes. However, our understanding of the responses of microbial communities to co-occurring climate change drivers is limited. We surveyed soil bacterial and fungal diversity and composition after a 1-year warming and altered precipitation manipulation in the Tibetan plateau alpine grassland. In isolation, warming and decreased precipitation treatments each had no significant effects on soil bacterial community structure; however, in combination of both treatments altered bacterial community structure (p = 0.03). The main effect of altered precipitation specifically impacted the relative abundances of Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria compared to the control, while the main effect of warming impacted the relative abundance of Betaproteobacteria. In contrast, the fungal community had no significant response to the treatments after 1-year. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found bacterial community composition was positively related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that short-term climate change could cause changes in soil bacterial community through taxonomic shifts. Our work provides new insights into immediate soil microbial responses to short-term stressors acting on an ecosystem that is particularly sensitive to global climate change. PMID:27446064

Science, Practitioners and Faith Communities: using TEK and Faith Knowledge to address climate issues.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, K.

2017-12-01

Worldview, Lifeway and Science - Communities that are tied to the land or water for their livelihood, and for whom subsistence guides their cultural lifeway, have knowledges that inform their interactions with the environment. These frameworks, sometimes called Traditional Ecological Knowledges (TEK), are based on generations of observations made and shared within lived life-environmental systems, and are tied to practitioners' broader worldviews. Subsistence communities, including Native American tribes, are well aware of the crises caused by climate change impacts. These communities are working on ways to integrate knowledge from their ancient ways with current observations and methods from Western science to implement appropriate adaptation and resilience measures. In the delta region of south Louisiana, the communities hold worldviews that blend TEK, climate science and faith-derived concepts. It is not incongruent for the communities to intertwine conversations from complex and diverse sources, including the academy, to inform their adaptation measures and their imagined solutions. Drawing on over twenty years of work with local communities, science organizations and faith institutions of the lower bayou region of Louisiana, the presenter will address the complexity of traditional communities' work with diverse sources of knowledge to guide local decision-making and to assist outside partners to more effectively address challenges associated with climate change.

Effects of Short-Term Warming and Altered Precipitation on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Zhang, Kaoping; Shi, Yu; Jing, Xin; He, Jin-Sheng; Sun, Ruibo; Yang, Yunfeng; Shade, Ashley; Chu, Haiyan

2016-01-01

Soil microbial communities are influenced by climate change drivers such as warming and altered precipitation. These changes create abiotic stresses, including desiccation and nutrient limitation, which act on microbes. However, our understanding of the responses of microbial communities to co-occurring climate change drivers is limited. We surveyed soil bacterial and fungal diversity and composition after a 1-year warming and altered precipitation manipulation in the Tibetan plateau alpine grassland. In isolation, warming and decreased precipitation treatments each had no significant effects on soil bacterial community structure; however, in combination of both treatments altered bacterial community structure (p = 0.03). The main effect of altered precipitation specifically impacted the relative abundances of Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria compared to the control, while the main effect of warming impacted the relative abundance of Betaproteobacteria. In contrast, the fungal community had no significant response to the treatments after 1-year. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found bacterial community composition was positively related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that short-term climate change could cause changes in soil bacterial community through taxonomic shifts. Our work provides new insights into immediate soil microbial responses to short-term stressors acting on an ecosystem that is particularly sensitive to global climate change.

Changes in Dogger Bank macrofauna communities in the 20th century caused by fishing and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kröncke, Ingrid

2011-09-01

The macrofauna communities on the Dogger Bank (North Sea) from the 1920s, the 1950s and the 1980s to the 2000s were compared and identified five communities with similar spatial distribution throughout the 20th century. The abundance of dominant species in the five communities varied with time. Most obvious in the 1950s was the loss of the extensive Spisula and Mactra patches, which covered most of the shallow parts of the Bank in the 1920s. Since the 1980s, they have been found only as juveniles. The biological regime shift in the late 1980s caused an increase in macrofauna abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species in most of the communities. The climate regime shift in 2001 had opposite effects in which the abundance, species numbers, diversity and southern species decreased in most of the communities. The increase in interface-feeding species and the decrease in sand-licking amphipods in the 2000s especially in the shallow Bank Community give evidence for climate driven changes in water masses, currents, storms, turbidity and food availability via planktonic or benthic primary production. Both fishing impact and climate change are hypothesised as explaining the changes in the Dogger Bank macrofauna communities.

CARDS - comprehensive aerological reference data set. Station history, Version 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-03-01

The possibility of anthropogenic climate change has reached the attention of Government officials and researchers. However, one cannot study climate change without climate data. The CARDS project will produce high-quality upper-air data for the research community and for policy-makers. The authors intend to produce a dataset which is: easy to use, as complete as possible, as free of random errors as possible. They will also attempt to identify biases and remove them whenever possible. In this report, they relate progress toward their goal. They created a robust new format for archiving upper-air data, and designed a relational database structure tomore » hold them. The authors have converted 13 datasets to the new format and have archived over 10,000,000 individual soundings from 10 separate data sources. They produce and archive a metadata summary of each sounding they load. They have researched station histories, and have built a preliminary upper-air station history database. They have converted station-sorted data from their primary database into synoptic-sorted data in a parallel database. They have tested and will soon implement an advanced quality-control procedure, capable of detecting and often repairing errors in geopotential height, temperature, humidity, and wind. This unique quality-control method uses simultaneous vertical, horizontal, and temporal checks of several meteorological variables. It can detect errors other methods cannot. This report contains the station histories for the CARDS data set.« less

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Communities: A Transplant Experiment

PubMed Central

Nooten, Sabine S.; Andrew, Nigel R.; Hughes, Lesley

2014-01-01

Climate change will have profound impacts on the distribution, abundance and ecology of all species. We used a multi-species transplant experiment to investigate the potential effects of a warmer climate on insect community composition and structure. Eight native Australian plant species were transplanted into sites approximately 2.5°C (mean annual temperature) warmer than their native range. Subsequent insect colonisation was monitored for 12 months. We compared the insect communities on transplanted host plants at the warmer sites with control plants transplanted within the species' native range. Comparisons of the insect communities were also made among transplanted plants at warmer sites and congeneric plant species native to the warmer transplant area. We found that the morphospecies composition of the colonising Coleoptera and Hemiptera communities differed markedly between transplants at the control compared to the warmer sites. Community structure, as described by the distribution of feeding guilds, was also found to be different between the controls and transplants when the entire Coleoptera and Hemiptera community, including non-herbivore feeding guilds, was considered. However, the structure of the herbivorous insect community showed a higher level of consistency between plants at control and warm sites. There were marked differences in community composition and feeding guild structure, for both herbivores and non-herbivores, between transplants and congenerics at the warm sites. These results suggest that as the climate warms, considerable turnover in the composition of insect communities may occur, but insect herbivore communities may retain elements of their present-day structure. PMID:24465827

Reactor performances and microbial communities of biogas reactors: effects of inoculum sources.

PubMed

Han, Sheng; Liu, Yafeng; Zhang, Shicheng; Luo, Gang

2016-01-01

Anaerobic digestion is a very complex process that is mediated by various microorganisms, and the understanding of the microbial community assembly and its corresponding function is critical in order to better control the anaerobic process. The present study investigated the effect of different inocula on the microbial community assembly in biogas reactors treating cellulose with various inocula, and three parallel biogas reactors with the same inoculum were also operated in order to reveal the reproducibility of both microbial communities and functions of the biogas reactors. The results showed that the biogas production, volatile fatty acid (VFA) concentrations, and pH were different for the biogas reactors with different inocula, and different steady-state microbial community patterns were also obtained in different biogas reactors as reflected by Bray-Curtis similarity matrices and taxonomic classification. It indicated that inoculum played an important role in shaping the microbial communities of biogas reactor in the present study, and the microbial community assembly in biogas reactor did not follow the niche-based ecology theory. Furthermore, it was found that the microbial communities and reactor performances of parallel biogas reactors with the same inoculum were different, which could be explained by the neutral-based ecology theory and stochastic factors should played important roles in the microbial community assembly in the biogas reactors. The Bray-Curtis similarity matrices analysis suggested that inoculum affected more on the microbial community assembly compared to stochastic factors, since the samples with different inocula had lower similarity (10-20 %) compared to the samples from the parallel biogas reactors (30 %).

Traditional climate knowledge: a case study in a peasant community of Tlaxcala, Mexico.

PubMed

Rivero-Romero, Alexis D; Moreno-Calles, Ana I; Casas, Alejandro; Castillo, Alicia; Camou-Guerrero, Andrés

2016-08-18

Traditional climate knowledge is a comprehensive system of insights, experiences and practices used by peasant communities to deal with the uncertainties of climate conditions affecting their livelihood. This knowledge is today as relevant in the Mesoamerican and Andean regions as it is in Europe and Asia. Our research sought to analyze the traditional knowledge about the weather and climate in a rural village of the state of Tlaxcala, Mexico, and its importance in decision-making in agriculture. Through 30 interviews and participant observation in the community during 2013, information was gathered about traditional climate and weather indicators and prediction tools, as well as rituals and agronomic and agroforestry strategies. This information allowed for the reconstruction of the community's agro-festive calendar. Data analysis was carried out with the help of the qualitative analysis software Atlas.ti (version 7). The socio-ecological importance of traditional knowledge about the climate lies in its ability to forecast local weather conditions and recognize climate variations, so vital to the food security of rural families. Knowledge about climate predictors is exchanged and passed on from generation to generation, contributing to the preservation and promotion of biodiversity. By observing the behavior of 16 animals and 12 plant species (both domestic and wild) as well as seven astronomical indicators, villagers are able to predict rain, dry weather and frosts. However, the continuity of this traditional knowledge in the community under study is now compromised by the little interest in agriculture characteristic of the younger generations, the ensuing abandonment of the countryside, the widespread economic crisis and the disappearance of animal and plant species. Traditional climate knowledge includes the understanding of weather events and weather changes at different time scales (hours, days, weeks, and seasons). The ability to interpret weather events thanks to the accumulated knowledge about the climate through generations may prove today a relevant tool for improving agricultural practices and dealing with local and global socio-ecological changes.

An Investigation of Students' Perceptions about Democratic School Climate and Sense of Community in School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karakus, Memet

2017-01-01

This study aims to investigate students' perceptions about democratic school climate and sense of community in school. In line with this purpose, it aims to find answers to the following questions: How democratic do students find the school climate? What is students' sense of belonging level at school? What is the academic success level of…

Climate variability and fire effects on quaking aspen in the central Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Vachel A. Carter; Andrea Brunelle; Thomas A. Minckley; John D. Shaw; R. Justin DeRose; Simon Brewer

2017-01-01

Our understanding of how climate and fire have impacted quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) communities prior to the 20th century is fairly limited. This study analysed the period between 4500 and 2000 cal. yr BP to assess the pre-historic role of climate and fire on an aspen community during an aspen-dominated period.

An Analysis of the Relationship between Select Organizational Climate Factors and Job Satisfaction Factors as Reported by Community College Personnel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

San Giacomo, Rose-Marie Carla

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the overall satisfaction with organizational climate factors across seven studies of various levels of community college personnel. A secondary purpose was to determine if there was a significant relationship between satisfaction with organizational climate factors and the importance of job satisfaction…

Australian community members' attitudes toward climate change impacts at the Great Barrier Reef

Treesearch

Carena J. vanRiper; Gerard Kyle; Jee In Yoon; Stephen G. Sutton

2012-01-01

This research identified homogenous groups of Australian community members that share similar attitudes toward climate change impacts within the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). A questionnaire was administered to a random sample of adult residents living near the GBRWHA (n = 1,623) in order to assess public awareness of climate change, concern about...

The impact of 850,000 years of climate changes on the structure and dynamics of mammal food webs.

PubMed

Nenzén, Hedvig K; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara

2014-01-01

Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities.

The Impact of 850,000 Years of Climate Changes on the Structure and Dynamics of Mammal Food Webs

PubMed Central

Nenzén, Hedvig K.; Montoya, Daniel; Varela, Sara

2014-01-01

Most evidence of climate change impacts on food webs comes from modern studies and little is known about how ancient food webs have responded to climate changes in the past. Here, we integrate fossil evidence from 71 fossil sites, body-size relationships and actualism to reconstruct food webs for six large mammal communities that inhabited the Iberian Peninsula at different times during the Quaternary. We quantify the long-term dynamics of these food webs and study how their structure changed across the Quaternary, a period for which fossil data and climate changes are well known. Extinction, immigration and turnover rates were correlated with climate changes in the last 850 kyr. Yet, we find differences in the dynamics and structural properties of Pleistocene versus Holocene mammal communities that are not associated with glacial-interglacial cycles. Although all Quaternary mammal food webs were highly nested and robust to secondary extinctions, general food web properties changed in the Holocene. These results highlight the ability of communities to re-organize with the arrival of phylogenetically similar species without major structural changes, and the impact of climate change and super-generalist species (humans) on Iberian Holocene mammal communities. PMID:25207754

Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas J; Kates, Dr. Robert W.

2010-01-01

Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental historymore » of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.« less

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

PubMed

Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

2015-01-01

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Community benthic paleoecology from high-resolution climate records: Mollusca and foraminifera in post-glacial environments of the California margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhre, Sarah E.; Kroeker, Kristy J.; Hill, Tessa M.; Roopnarine, Peter; Kennett, James P.

2017-01-01

Paleoecological reconstructions of past climate are often based on a single taxonomic group with a consistent presence. Less is known about the relationship between multi-taxon community-wide change and climate variability. Here we reconstruct paleoecological change in a Late Quaternary (16.1-3.4 ka) sediment core from the California margin (418 m below sea level) of Santa Barbara Basin (SBB), USA, using Mollusca (Animalia) and Foraminifera (Rhizaria) microfossils. Building upon previous investigations, we use multivariate ordination and cluster analyses to interpret community-scale changes in these distinctly different taxonomic groups across discrete climate episodes. The strongest differences between seafloor biological communities occurred between glacial (prior to Termination IA, 14.7 ka) and interglacial climate episodes. Holocene communities were well partitioned, indicating that sub-millennial oceanographic variability was recorded by these microfossils. We document strong evidence of chemosynthetic trophic webs and sulfidic environments (from gastropod Alia permodesta and bivalve Lucinoma aequizonata), which characterized restricted intervals previously interpreted as well oxygenated (such as the Pre-Bølling Warming). Mollusc records indicate first-order trophic energetic shifts between detrital and chemosynthetically-fixed carbon. Molluscs associated with widely different physiological preferences occur here within single, decadal intervals of sediment, and as such mollusc assemblages may reflect significant inter-decadal oceanographic variability. Foraminifera assemblages provide exceptional records of the sequential, chronological progression of the deglacial climatic and oceanographic events, whereas mollusc assemblages reflect non-chronological similarities in reoccurring communities. Foraminifera taxa that drive community similarity here are also independently recognized as marker species for seafloor hypoxia regimes, which provides support for the idea that oxygenation change is a principal driver of seafloor environmental variability.

Systems of power, axes of inequity: parallels, intersections, braiding the strands.

PubMed

Jones, Camara P

2014-10-01

This commentary builds on work examining the impacts of racism on health to identify parallels and intersections with regard to able-ism and health. The "Cliff Analogy" framework for distinguishing between five levels of health intervention is used to sort the Healthy People 2020 goals on Disability and Health along an array from medical care to addressing the social determinants of equity. Parallels between racism and able-ism as systems of power, similarities and differences between "race" and disability status as axes of inequity, intersections of "race" and disability status in individuals and in communities, and the promise of convergent strength between the anti-racism community and the disability rights community are highlighted. With health equity defined as assurance of the conditions for optimal health for all people, it is noted that achieving health equity requires valuing all individuals and populations equally, recognizing and rectifying historical injustices, and providing resources according to need.

Aviso: altimetry products & services in 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertz, F.; Bronner, E.; Rosmorduc, V.; Maheu, C.

2013-12-01

Since the launch of Topex/Poseidon, more than 20 years ago, satellite altimetry has evolved in parallel with the user community and oceanography. As a result of this evolution, we now have: - a wide range of products, more and more easy-to-use, spanning complete GDRs to pre-computed sea level anomalies, gridded datasets and indicators such as MSL index or ENSO index. - a wide range of applications in the oceanographic community: ocean observation, biology, climate, ... - a mature approach, combining altimetric data from various satellites and merging data acquired using different observation techniques, including altimetry, to give us a global view of the ocean; - data available in real or near-real time for operational use. Different services are available either to choose between the various datasets, or to download, extract or even visualize the data. An Ipad-Iphone application, AvisOcean has also been opened in September 2012, for information about the data and their updates. 2013 has seen major changes in Aviso data distribution, both in data products themselves and in their distribution, including an online extraction tool in preparation (Online Data Extraction Service). An overview of available products & services, how to access them today, will be presented.

Waste gas biofiltration: advances and limitations of current approaches in microbiology.

PubMed

Ralebitso-Senior, T Komang; Senior, Eric; Di Felice, Renzo; Jarvis, Kirsty

2012-08-21

As confidence in gas biofiltration efficacy grows, ever more complex malodorant and toxic molecules are ameliorated. In parallel, for many countries, emission control legislation becomes increasingly stringent to accommodate both public health and climate change imperatives. Effective gas biofiltration in biofilters and biotrickling filters depends on three key bioreactor variables: the support medium; gas molecule solubilization; and the catabolic population. Organic and inorganic support media, singly or in combination, have been employed and their key criteria are considered by critical appraisal of one, char. Catabolic species have included fungal and bacterial monocultures and, to a lesser extent, microbial communities. In the absence of organic support medium (soil, compost, sewage sludge, etc.) inoculum provision, a targeted enrichment and isolation program must be undertaken followed, possibly, by culture efficacy improvement. Microbial community process enhancement can then be gained by comprehensive characterization of the culturable and total populations. For all species, support medium attachment is critical and this is considered prior to filtration optimization by water content, pH, temperature, loadings, and nutrients manipulation. Finally, to negate discharge of fungal spores, and/or archaeal and/or bacterial cells, capture/destruction technologies are required to enable exploitation of the mineralization product CO(2).

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS: The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures.

Climate change and health effects in Northwest Alaska

PubMed Central

Brubaker, Michael; Berner, James; Chavan, Raj; Warren, John

2011-01-01

This article provides examples of adverse health effects, including weather-related injury, food insecurity, mental health issues, and water infrastructure damage, and the responses to these effects that are currently being applied in two Northwest Alaska communities. Background In Northwest Alaska, warming is resulting in a broad range of unusual weather and environmental conditions, including delayed freeze-up, earlier breakup, storm surge, coastal erosion, and thawing permafrost. These are just some of the climate impacts that are driving concerns about weather-related injury, the spread of disease, mental health issues, infrastructure damage, and food and water security. Local leaders are challenged to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to address climate impacts and related health effects. Implementation process The tribal health system is combining local observations, traditional knowledge, and western science to perform community-specific climate change health impact assessments. Local leaders are applying this information to develop adaptation responses. Objective The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium will describe relationships between climate impacts and health effects and provide examples of community-scaled adaptation actions currently being applied in Northwest Alaska. Findings Climate change is increasing vulnerability to injury, disease, mental stress, food insecurity, and water insecurity. Northwest communities are applying adaptation approaches that are both specific and appropriate. Conclusion The health impact assessment process is effective in raising awareness, encouraging discussion, engaging partners, and implementing adaptation planning. With community-specific information, local leaders are applying health protective adaptation measures. PMID:22022304

2014 Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Conference Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2015-01-27

The climate and weather data science community met December 9–11, 2014, in Livermore, California, for the fourth annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Conference, hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UVCDATremain global collaborations committed to developing a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to simulated and observed data from the climate and weather communities.more » The tools and infrastructure created under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change. In addition, the F2F conference fosters a stronger climate and weather data science community and facilitates a stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2014 F2F conference detailed the progress of ESGF, UV-CDAT, and other community efforts over the year and sets new priorities and requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six. Specifically discussed at the conference were project capabilities and enhancements needs for data distribution, analysis, visualization, hardware and network infrastructure, standards, and resources.« less

New perspectives for European climate services: HORIZON2020

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruning, Claus; Tilche, Andrea

2014-05-01

The developing of new end-to-end climate services was one of the core priorities of 7th Framework for Research and Technological Development of the European Commission and will become one of the key strategic priorities of Societal Challenge 5 of HORIZON2020 (the new EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation 2014-2020). Results should increase the competitiveness of European businesses, and the ability of regional and national authorities to make effective decisions in climate-sensitive sectors. In parallel, the production of new tailored climate information should strengthen the resilience of the European society to climate change. In this perspective the strategy to support and foster the underpinning science for climate services in HORIZON2020 will be presented.

Recharge the Rain: Community Resilience Through STEM Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkening, B.; Shipek, C.

2017-12-01

Starting in January 2017, Recharge the Rain moves sixth through twelfth grade teachers, students and the public through a continuum from awareness, to knowledge gain, to conceptual understanding, to action; building community resiliency to hazards associated with increased temperatures, drought and flooding in Arizona. Watershed Management Group with Arizona Project WET are utilizing NOAA assets, experts from the National Weather Service and Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), and Pima County hazard mitigation plan and planning tools to inform citizens and galvanize their commitment to building a community, resilient to the effects of a warming climate. In the first of four years, the project is 1) developing climate-literacy curriculum with 16 Tucson-area teachers that incorporates systems-thinking and increases understanding of earth systems, weather and climate, 2) training teachers and community docents in water harvesting practices and citizen-science data collection, 3) laying the framework for the development of rainwater harvesting engineering design curriculum, 4) involving Tucson community members in water harvesting principles through project implementation workshops, special events, and tours. In years two through four, the project will build resiliency to the effects of climate threats by 1) installing student-designed rainwater harvesting systems, 2) providing community tours of schoolyard systems to educate the public, 3) expanding the program to incorporate curriculum use in Phoenix-area teachers' classrooms and 4) finalizing a replicable model for other communities facing similar threats. What are the lessons learned after one year of Recharge the Rain? How can these lessons be used to inform this project and other projects in building resilient communities?

Modelling the Madden Julian Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slingo, J M; Inness, P M; Sperber, K R

2004-05-21

The MJO has long been an aspect of the global climate that has provided a tough test for the climate modelling community. Since the 1980s there have been numerous studies of the simulation of the MJO in atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), ranging from Hayashi and Golder (1986, 1988) and Lau and Lau (1986), through to more recent studies such as Wang and Schlesinger (1999) and Wu et al. (2002). Of course, attempts to reproduce the MJO in climate models have proceeded in parallel with developments in our understanding of what the MJO is and what drives it. In fact,more » many advances in understanding the MJO have come through modeling studies. In particular, failure of climate models to simulate various aspects of the MJO has prompted investigations into the mechanisms that are important to its initiation and maintenance, leading to improvements both in our understanding of, and ability to simulate, the MJO. The initial focus of this chapter will be on modeling the MJO during northern winter, when it is characterized as a predominantly eastward propagating mode and is most readily seen in observations. Aspects of the simulation of the MJO will be discussed in the context of its sensitivity to the formulation of the atmospheric model, and the increasing evidence that it may be a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Later, we will discuss the challenges regarding the simulation of boreal summer intraseasonal variability, which is more complex since it is a combination of the eastward propagating MJO and the northward propagation of the tropical convergence zone. Finally some concluding remarks on future directions in modeling the MJO and its relationship with other timescales of variability in the tropics will be made.« less

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Chini, Louise M.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

2014-11-27

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessmentmore » Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.« less

Global terrestrial water storage connectivity revealed using complex climate network analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, A. Y.; Chen, J.; Donges, J.

2015-07-01

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) exerts a key control in global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. Although certain causal relationship exists between precipitation and TWS, the latter quantity also reflects impacts of anthropogenic activities. Thus, quantification of the spatial patterns of TWS will not only help to understand feedbacks between climate dynamics and the hydrologic cycle, but also provide new insights and model calibration constraints for improving the current land surface models. This work is the first attempt to quantify the spatial connectivity of TWS using the complex network theory, which has received broad attention in the climate modeling community in recent years. Complex networks of TWS anomalies are built using two global TWS data sets, a remote sensing product that is obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, and a model-generated data set from the global land data assimilation system's NOAH model (GLDAS-NOAH). Both data sets have 1° × 1° grid resolutions and cover most global land areas except for permafrost regions. TWS networks are built by first quantifying pairwise correlation among all valid TWS anomaly time series, and then applying a cutoff threshold derived from the edge-density function to retain only the most important features in the network. Basinwise network connectivity maps are used to illuminate connectivity of individual river basins with other regions. The constructed network degree centrality maps show the TWS anomaly hotspots around the globe and the patterns are consistent with recent GRACE studies. Parallel analyses of networks constructed using the two data sets reveal that the GLDAS-NOAH model captures many of the spatial patterns shown by GRACE, although significant discrepancies exist in some regions. Thus, our results provide further measures for constraining the current land surface models, especially in data sparse regions.

Correlation between asthma and climate in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey.

PubMed

Verlato, Giuseppe; Calabrese, Rolando; De Marco, Roberto

2002-01-01

The European Community Respiratory Health Survey, performed during 1991-1993, found a remarkable geographical variability in the prevalence of asthma and asthma-like symptoms in individuals aged 20-44 yr. The highest values occurred in the English-speaking centers. In the present investigation, the ecological relationship between climate and symptom prevalence was evaluated in the 48 centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. Meteorological variables were derived from the Global Historical Climatology Network and were averaged over an 11-yr period (i.e., 1980-1990). Respiratory symptom prevalence was directly related to temperature in the coldest month and was related inversely to the temperature in the hottest month. Warm winters and cool summers are features of oceanic climate found in most English-speaking centers of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (i.e., England, New Zealand, and Oregon). In conclusion, climate can account for significant geographic variability in respiratory symptom prevalence.

Climate change and health vulnerability in informal urban settlements in the Ethiopian Rift Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bambrick, Hilary; Moncada, Stefano; Briguglio, Marie

2015-05-01

Climate change in Ethiopia is occurring against a backdrop of rapid population growth and urbanization, entrenched poverty and a heavy burden of disease, and there is little information on specific health risks with which to approach adaptation planning and strengthen adaptive capacity. Using detailed household surveys (400 households, 1660 individuals, 100% participation) and focus groups in two informal urban communities in the Southern city of Shashemene, we identified locally relevant hazards and found that climate change is likely to intensify existing problems associated with poverty. We also showed that despite their proximity (situated only 1 km apart) the two communities differ in key characteristics that may affect climate change vulnerability and require nuanced approaches to adaptation. Detailed, community-level research is therefore necessary, especially where other sources of data are lacking, to ensure that adaptation activities in the world’s poorest communities address relevant risks.

COMBINED AND INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND TOXICANTS ON POPULATIONS AND COMMUNITIES

PubMed Central

Moe, S Jannicke; De Schamphelaere, Karel; Clements, William H; Sorensen, Mary T; Van den Brink, Paul J; Liess, Matthias

2013-01-01

Increased temperature and other environmental effects of global climate change (GCC) have documented impacts on many species (e.g., polar bears, amphibians, coral reefs) as well as on ecosystem processes and species interactions (e.g., the timing of predator–prey interactions). A challenge for ecotoxicologists is to predict how joint effects of climatic stress and toxicants measured at the individual level (e.g., reduced survival and reproduction) will be manifested at the population level (e.g., population growth rate, extinction risk) and community level (e.g., species richness, food-web structure). The authors discuss how population- and community-level responses to toxicants under GCC are likely to be influenced by various ecological mechanisms. Stress due to GCC may reduce the potential for resistance to and recovery from toxicant exposure. Long-term toxicant exposure can result in acquired tolerance to this stressor at the population or community level, but an associated cost of tolerance may be the reduced potential for tolerance to subsequent climatic stress (or vice versa). Moreover, GCC can induce large-scale shifts in community composition, which may affect the vulnerability of communities to other stressors. Ecological modeling based on species traits (representing life-history traits, population vulnerability, sensitivity to toxicants, and sensitivity to climate change) can be a promising approach for predicting combined impacts of GCC and toxicants on populations and communities. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:49–61. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147390

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less

The nexus of oil, conflict, and climate change vulnerability of pastoral communities in northwest Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schilling, J.; Locham, R.; Weinzierl, T.; Vivekananda, J.; Scheffran, J.

2015-11-01

Turkana, in northwest Kenya, is the country's poorest and least developed county. Pastoralism in Turkana is well adapted to the harsh climatic conditions, but an increase in drought frequency associated with global climate change and intensifying violent conflicts between pastoral groups poses significant challenges for local communities. The conflicts are especially violent in the border region between the Turkana and the Pokot communities. In this very region significant oil reserves have recently been found. The first aim of this paper is to analyse how the oil exploration affects the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Secondly, the paper explores the risk of the oil explorations creating new conflicts or aggravating existing ones. The primary method of the study is qualitative field research supplemented with a geo-spatial analysis of conflict data. The field research was conducted in October 2013 and April 2014 in three villages with different levels of engagement with the oil exploration. At the time of the research, oil exploration was expected close to Lokwamosing, while it had recently started in the vicinity of Lopii and had been ongoing for a longer time close to Nakukulas. The findings suggest that the oil exploration increases the community's vulnerability to climate change. Further, unmet community expectations for water, employment and development pose a significant risk for violent conflict between local communities and the operating oil company. Intercommunal conflict over water and land could increase as well.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

DOE PAGES

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-09-14

In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital environment and support teachers in the creation of lessons and units that promote both inquiry science and service learning in the community. Course participants connect the dots from their newly acquired theoretical science knowledge to concrete examples of change taking place locally, and see the value of promoting awareness as well as behavioral changes that contribute to adaptation and mitigation of local climate change impacts. We describe the assessments used and the research outcomes associated with NRES 832, Human Dimensions of Climate Change, where participants conduct archival research to create a climate change chronicle for their community, and NRES 830 Climate Research Applications, where teachers lead and evaluate the impacts of student-designed service learning activities as a capstone project for a unit on climate change. We also showcase community-based initiatives resulting from this work that seed the behavioral changes we need to live sustainably in our communities and on our planet.

"Climate Matters Documoments": Enabling Regionally-Specific Climate Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Finucane, M.

2012-12-01

The Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) is a multidisciplinary program that enhances the ability of Pacific Island communities to understand, plan for, and adapt to climate-induced change. Using both social and physical science research methods, the Pacific RISA engages a network of regional decision-makers and stakeholders to help solve climate-related issues. Pacific RISA has a broad audience of local and regional decision-makers (i.e. natural resource managers, community planners, state and federal government agencies) and stakeholders (i.e. farmers and ranchers, fishermen, community and native islander groups). The RISA program engages with this audience through a mixed-method approach of two-way communication, including one-on-one interviews, workshops, consensus discussions and public presentations that allow us to tailor our efforts to the needs of specific stakeholders. A recent Pacific RISA project was the creation and production of four short, educational "documoment" videos that explore the different ways in which climate change in Hawaii affects stakeholders from different sectors. The documoments, generally titled "Climate Matters", start with a quote about why climate matters to each stakeholder: a rancher, a coastal hotel owner, the manager of a landfill, and the local branch of the National Weather Service. The narratives then have each stakeholder discussing how climate impacts their professional and personal lives, and describing the types of climate change they have experienced in the islands. Each video ends with a technical fact about how different climate variables in Hawaii (sea level, precipitation, ENSO) have actually changed within the last century of observational data. Freely available on www.PacificRISA.org, the Documoments have been viewed over 350 times, and have inspired similar video projects and received positive attention from different audiences of stakeholders and scientists. In other assessment work the Pacific RISA has done, we found that many stakeholders who regularly make climate sensitive decisions do not always realize it. By viewing videos like the Climate Matters Documoments, it may help a wide variety of community stakeholders and natural resource decision makers realize the myriad ways in which climate change affects their communities and jobs. In addition, when viewed outside of the Pacific Islands region, the different stories told in the Documoments help foster a greater understanding of the unique climate-related issues faced within the Hawaiian Islands.

Accelerating Climate and Weather Simulations through Hybrid Computing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Shujia; Cruz, Carlos; Duffy, Daniel; Tucker, Robert; Purcell, Mark

2011-01-01

Unconventional multi- and many-core processors (e.g. IBM (R) Cell B.E.(TM) and NVIDIA (R) GPU) have emerged as effective accelerators in trial climate and weather simulations. Yet these climate and weather models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g. Intel, AMD, and IBM) using Message Passing Interface. To address challenges involved in efficiently and easily connecting accelerators to parallel computers, we investigated using IBM's Dynamic Application Virtualization (TM) (IBM DAV) software in a prototype hybrid computing system with representative climate and weather model components. The hybrid system comprises two Intel blades and two IBM QS22 Cell B.E. blades, connected with both InfiniBand(R) (IB) and 1-Gigabit Ethernet. The system significantly accelerates a solar radiation model component by offloading compute-intensive calculations to the Cell blades. Systematic tests show that IBM DAV can seamlessly offload compute-intensive calculations from Intel blades to Cell B.E. blades in a scalable, load-balanced manner. However, noticeable communication overhead was observed, mainly due to IP over the IB protocol. Full utilization of IB Sockets Direct Protocol and the lower latency production version of IBM DAV will reduce this overhead.

Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate, bacterial metabolism, and major extinctions

PubMed Central

Stanley, Steven M.

2010-01-01

Conspicuous global stable carbon isotope excursions that are recorded in marine sedimentary rocks of Phanerozoic age and were associated with major extinctions have generally paralleled global stable oxygen isotope excursions. All of these phenomena are therefore likely to share a common origin through global climate change. Exceptional patterns for carbon isotope excursions resulted from massive carbon burial during warm intervals of widespread marine anoxic conditions. The many carbon isotope excursions that parallel those for oxygen isotopes can to a large degree be accounted for by the Q10 pattern of respiration for bacteria: As temperature changed along continental margins, where ∼90% of marine carbon burial occurs today, rates of remineralization of isotopically light carbon must have changed exponentially. This would have reduced organic carbon burial during global warming and increased it during global cooling. Also contributing to the δ13C excursions have been release and uptake of methane by clathrates, the positive correlation between temperature and degree of fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton at temperatures below ∼15°, and increased phytoplankton productivity during “icehouse” conditions. The Q10 pattern for bacteria and climate-related changes in clathrate volume represent positive feedbacks for climate change. PMID:21041682

Gender and Community Organization Leadership in the Chicago Indian Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Straus, Anne Terry; Valentino, Debra

2003-01-01

This article concerns eight decades (1920-2000) of community organization in the American Indian community in Chicago. While the trends discussed may be particular to that community or time frame, the authors expect that there are parallels in other urban Indian communities. The Chicago American Indian Center was the first urban Indian center in…

Social controversy belongs in the climate science classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Elizabeth M.; Tsurusaki, Blakely K.

2014-04-01

Scientists, educators and stakeholders are grappling with how to best approach climate change education for diverse audiences, a task made difficult due to persistent social controversy. This Perspective examines how sociocultural learning theories can inform the design and implementation of climate change education experiences for learners with varied understandings of and attitudes towards climate change. The literature demonstrates that explicitly addressing learners' social and community experiences, values and knowledge supports understandings of and increased concern about climate change. Science learning environments that situate climate change in its social context can support conceptual understandings, shift attitudes and increase the participation of diverse communities in responding to climate change. Examples are provided of successful programmes that attend to social dimensions and learners' previous experiences, including experiences of social controversy.

Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly.

PubMed

Thibault, Katherine M; Brown, James H

2008-03-04

Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant species; (iii) reset long-term population and community trends; (iv) interacted with competitive and metapopulation dynamics; and (v) resulted in rapid, wholesale reorganization of the community. This and a previous extreme rainfall event were punctuational perturbations-they caused large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change. Captured by chance through long-term monitoring, the impacts of such large, infrequent events provide unique insights into the processes that structure ecological communities.

Interactive effects of multiple climate change factors on ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in a temperate steppe.

PubMed

Zhang, Cui-Jing; Shen, Ju-Pei; Sun, Yi-Fei; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhang, Li-Mei; Yang, Zhong-Ling; Han, Hong-Yan; Wan, Shi-Qiang; He, Ji-Zheng

2017-04-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on belowground microbial communities and subsequently affect soil biogeochemical processes. The interactive effects of multiple co-occurring climate change factors on microbially mediated processes are not well understood. A four-factorial field experiment with elevated CO2, watering, nitrogen (N) addition and night warming was conducted in a temperate steppe of northern China. Real-time polymerase chain reaction and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism, combined with clone library techniques, were applied to examine the effects of those climate change factors on N-related microbial abundance and community composition. Only the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria significantly increased by nitrogen addition and decreased by watering. The interactions of watering × warming on the bacterial amoA community and warming × nitrogen addition on the nosZ community were found. Redundancy analysis indicated that the ammonia-oxidizing archaeal community was affected by total N and total carbon, while the community of bacterial amoA and nosZ were significantly affected by soil pH. According to a structural equation modeling analysis, climate change influenced net primary production indirectly by altering microbial abundance and activities. These results indicated that microbial responses to the combination of chronic global change tend to be smaller than expected from single-factor global change manipulations. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Coastal Climate Change Education, Mitigation, and Adaptation in the Natural and Built Environments: Progress of the Coastal Areas Climate Change Education Partnership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, A.; Herman, B.; Vernaza-Hernández, V.; Ryan, J. G.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Gilbes, F.

2011-12-01

The Coastal Area Climate Change Education (CACCE) Partnership, funded by the National Science Foundation, seeks to develop new ways to educate citizens about global climate change. The core themes are sea level rise and impacts of climate change in the southeastern United States and the Caribbean Sea. CACCE focuses on helping partners, educators, students, and the general public gain a fundamental and working understanding of the interrelation among the natural environment, built environment, and social aspects in the context of climate change in coastal regions. To this end, CACCE's objectives reported here include: 1) defining the current state of awareness, perceptions, and literacy about the impacts of climate change; and 2) testing a model of transdisciplinary research and learning as a means of training a new generation of climate professionals. Objective one is met in part by CACCE survey efforts that reveal Florida and Puerto Rico secondary science teachers hold many non-scientific views about climate change and climate change science and provide inadequate instruction about climate change. Associated with objective two are five Multiple Outcome Interdisciplinary Research and Learning (MOIRL) pilot projects underway in schools in Florida and Puerto Rico. In the CACCE Partnership the stakeholders include: students (K-16 and graduate); teachers and education researchers; informal science educators; scientists and engineers; business and industry; policy makers; and community members. CACCE combines interdisciplinary research with action research and community-based participatory research in a way that is best described as "transdisciplinary". Learning occurs in all spheres of interactions among stakeholders as they engage in scientific, educational, community and business activities through their legitimate peripheral participation in research communities of practice. We will describe the process of seeking and building partnerships, and call for a dialogue with groups pursuing climate and climate change education.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

PubMed

Sheets, H David; Mitchell, Charles E; Melchin, Michael J; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L; Hawkins, Andrew D

2016-07-26

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (∼447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Graptolite community responses to global climate change and the Late Ordovician mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheets, H. David; Mitchell, Charles E.; Melchin, Michael J.; Loxton, Jason; Štorch, Petr; Carlucci, Kristi L.; Hawkins, Andrew D.

2016-07-01

Mass extinctions disrupt ecological communities. Although climate changes produce stress in ecological communities, few paleobiological studies have systematically addressed the impact of global climate changes on the fine details of community structure with a view to understanding how changes in community structure presage, or even cause, biodiversity decline during mass extinctions. Based on a novel Bayesian approach to biotope assessment, we present a study of changes in species abundance distribution patterns of macroplanktonic graptolite faunas (˜447-444 Ma) leading into the Late Ordovician mass extinction. Communities at two contrasting sites exhibit significant decreases in complexity and evenness as a consequence of the preferential decline in abundance of dysaerobic zone specialist species. The observed changes in community complexity and evenness commenced well before the dramatic population depletions that mark the tipping point of the extinction event. Initially, community changes tracked changes in the oceanic water masses, but these relations broke down during the onset of mass extinction. Environmental isotope and biomarker data suggest that sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling in the paleotropical oceans changed sharply during the latest Katian time, with consequent changes in the extent of the oxygen minimum zone and phytoplankton community composition. Although many impacted species persisted in ephemeral populations, increased extinction risk selectively depleted the diversity of paleotropical graptolite species during the latest Katian and early Hirnantian. The effects of long-term climate change on habitats can thus degrade populations in ways that cascade through communities, with effects that culminate in mass extinction.

Adaptive governance and institutional strategies for climate-induced community relocations in Alaska.

PubMed

Bronen, Robin; Chapin, F Stuart

2013-06-04

This article presents governance and institutional strategies for climate-induced community relocations. In Alaska, repeated extreme weather events coupled with climate change-induced coastal erosion impact the habitability of entire communities. Community residents and government agencies concur that relocation is the only adaptation strategy that can protect lives and infrastructure. Community relocation stretches the financial and institutional capacity of existing governance institutions. Based on a comparative analysis of three Alaskan communities, Kivalina, Newtok, and Shishmaref, which have chosen to relocate, we examine the institutional constraints to relocation in the United States. We identify policy changes and components of a toolkit that can facilitate community-based adaptation when environmental events threaten people's lives and protection in place is not possible. Policy changes include amendment of the Stafford Act to include gradual geophysical processes, such as erosion, in the statutory definition of disaster and the creation of an adaptive governance framework to allow communities a continuum of responses from protection in place to community relocation. Key components of the toolkit are local leadership and integration of social and ecological well-being into adaptation planning.

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Analysis of Microbial Community Composition and Methane Production From Northern Peatlands Across a Climate Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarno, A. F.; Humphreys, E.; Olefeldt, D.; Heffernan, L.; Roman, T. D.; Sebestyen, S.; Kolka, R.; Yavitt, J. B.; Finn, D.; Cadillo-Quiroz, H.

2017-12-01

Northern peatland ecosystems allow for the accumulation of a carbon (C) pool as the rate of photosynthesis exceeds the rate of organic carbon decomposition. Under current climate conditions, many northern peatlands act as a C sink; however, changes in climate and other environmental conditions, such as soil permafrost melting, are capable of changing the decomposition cascade. Here we take advantage of four peatlands situated along a climate gradient from tundra (Daring Lake, Canada) to boreal forest (Lutose, Canada) to temperate broadleaf and mixed forest (Bog Lake, MN and Chicago Bog, NY) biomes to assess how the relative abundance of microbial functional groups and substrate availability within the microbial community might impact the decomposition of soil organic matter to methane. The four peatlands had similar hydrology and geochemistry and were poor fen types. Soil, water and gas samples were collected at the water table level. Microbial community composition, derived from Illumina amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, and geochemical and climate variables were analyzed with principal component regression analysis to determine major drivers of community variation. Mean annual temperature (r2=0.53), mean annual precipitation (r2=0.36), water table level (r2=0.43) and soil temperature (r2=0.49), were all statistically significant drivers of both general microbial and methanogen community composition (p value < 0.001). The relative abundance of Methanocella, Methanosarcina and Methanobacterium varied significantly across the climate gradient (p value < 0.05), however the majority of methanogen genera did not. Interestingly, dissolved methane (r2=0.24) was statistically significant at the general community level (p value < 0.001), but not significant when tested against only the methanogen community. The results demonstrate that environmental factors predicted to change over time due to climate change will have a significant impact on microbial community composition and C sinks within Northern peatlands. Further analyses of microbial processes that produce methanogenic substrates such as fermentation and syntrophic reactions, in tandem with the further identification and quantification of methanogens, will elucidate other drivers of methane production in Northern peatlands.

EPA Provides Training to Help Communities Prepare for Climate Change

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

WASHINGTON - As part of President Obama's Climate Action Plan, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today released an online training module to help local government officials take actions to increase their communities' resiliency to a chan

The story of rising voices: Facilitating collaboration between indigenous and western ways of knowing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Lazrus, Heather; Bennett, Shiloh-Kay; Chief, Karletta; Dhillon, Carla May; Gough, Bob; Kruger, Linda; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Petrovic, Stefan; Whyte, Kyle P.; Companion, Michele; Chaiken, Miriam S.

2016-01-01

Indigenous community self-determination, cultures, and ways of life are at high risk from climate change impacts and ecological dispossession. Partnerships between experts with backgrounds in Indigenous and western knowledge may be productive and effective ways to reduce vulnerability and foster resilience. This chapter examines collaborations among scientific and Native American, Alaska Native, and Pacific Island communities to support climate solutions. We draw examples from the "Rising Voices: Collaborative Science with Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Solutions" program (Rising Voices) to examine how boundary organizations function cross-culturally to increase communities' adaptive capacity through knowledge exchange, as well as building the decision-making capacity needed to exercise sovereignty and make adaptive decisions in a changing climate.

How Do We Communicate Both the Knowns and Unknowns of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, P.; Selin, C.; Garfinkle, R.

2011-12-01

The overwhelming consensus amongst climatologists is that anthropogenic climate change is underway, but leading climate scientists also anticipate that over the next 20 years research will only modestly reduce the uncertainty about where, when and by how much climate will change. Uncertainty about these aspects of climate change and their impacts presents not only scientific challenges but social, political and economic quandaries as well. The Science Museum of Minnesota (SMM) in partnership with the Consortium for Science, Policy and Outcomes at Arizona State University, the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota, and the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, CA proposes to create a major national touring science exhibition that focuses both on informing the public on what is known about climate change and on how to plan for the future in light of the uncertainties identified above. The scientific and educational communities understand that climate change will test the resilience of societies especially because of the uncertainties regarding where, when and by how much climate will change. Yet the civic space for such conversations is circumscribed. Various interest groups are actively engaged in sowing doubt and confusion in the public's mind about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Consequently, some in the scientific community find the mention of uncertainty in association with climate change as an anathema because of concerns about potentially eroding public understanding and acceptance of the reality of anthropogenic climate change. SMM and its partners are interested in the perspectives of the scientific community with respect to the proposed exhibition. This session will engage participants in a dialog around a number of questions: How should we discuss the uncertainties of climate change while still communicating the scientific consensus on climate change? How do we gain the confidence of the scientific community to get the balance right between the reality of climate change and the uncertainty of how it will manifest itself? How might this project help reopen the presently stifled U.S. civic conversation about climate change? SMM and its partners seek your insights into these and other critical climate change education questions.

A warmer and drier climate in the northern sagebrush biome does not promote cheatgrass invasion or change its response to fire.

PubMed

Larson, Christian D; Lehnhoff, Erik A; Rew, Lisa J

2017-12-01

Dryland shrub communities have been degraded by a range of disturbances and now face additional stress from global climate change. The spring/summer growing season of the North American sagebrush biome is projected to become warmer and drier, which is expected to facilitate the expansion of the invasive annual grass Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) and alter its response to fire in the northern extent of the biome. We tested these predictions with a factorial experiment with two levels of burning (spring burn and none) and three climate treatments (warming, warming + drying, and control) that was repeated over 3 years in a Montana sagebrush steppe. We expected the climate treatments to make B. tectorum more competitive with the native perennial grass community, especially Pseudoroegneria spicata, and alter its response to fire. Experimental warming and warming + drying reduced B. tectorum cover, biomass, and fecundity, but there was no response to fire except for fecundity, which increased; the native grass community was the most significant factor that affected B. tectorum metrics. The experimental climate treatments also negatively affected P. spicata, total native grass cover, and community biodiversity, while fire negatively affected total native grass cover, particularly when climate conditions were warmer and drier. Our short-term results indicate that without sufficient antecedent moisture and a significant disruption to the native perennial grass community, a change in climate to a warmer and drier spring/summer growing season in the northern sagebrush biome will not facilitate B. tectorum invasion or alter its response to fire.

A community based approach to improving resilience of forests and water resources: A local and regional climate adaptation methodology

Treesearch

Toby Thaler; Gwen Griffith; Nancy Gilliam

2014-01-01

Forest-based ecosystem services are at risk from human-caused stressors, including climate change. Improving governance and management of forests to reduce impacts and increase community resilience to all stressors is the objective of forest-related climate change adaptation. The Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) has applied one method designed to meet this objective...

Integrating Scientific Content with Context to Connect Educators with the Complexities and Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Gosselin, D. C.; Oglesby, R. J.; Larson-Miller, C.; Thomas, J.; Mawalagedara, R.

2011-12-01

Over the past three years the Nebraska Earth Systems Education Network has designed professional development opportunities for K-12 and extension educators that integrates scientific content into the context of helping educators connect society with the complexities and consequences of climate change. Our professional development approach uses learner-, knowledge-, assessment-, and community-centered strategies to achieve our long-term goal: collaboration of scientists, educators and learners to foster civic literacy about climate change. Two NASA-funded projects, Global Climate Change Literacy for Educators (GCCE, 2009-2012), and the Educators Climatologists Learning Community (ECLC, 2011-2013), have provided the mechanism to provide teachers with scientifically sound and pedagogically relevant educational materials to improve climate and Earth systems literacy among educators. The primary product of the GCCE program is a 16-week, online, distance-delivered, asynchronous course entitled, Laboratory Earth: Human Dimensions of Climate Change. This course consists of four, four-week modules that integrate climate literacy, Earth Systems concepts, and pedagogy focused on active learning processes, building community, action research, and students' sense of place to promote action at the local level to address the challenges of climate change. Overall, the Community of Inquiry Survey (COI) indicated the course was effective in teaching content, developing a community of learners, and engaging students in experiences designed to develop content knowledge. A pre- and post- course Wilcoxan Signed Ranks Test indicated there was a statistically significant increase in participant's beliefs about their personal science teaching efficacy. Qualitative data from concept maps and content mastery assignments support a positive impact on teachers' content knowledge and classroom practice. Service Learning units seemed tohelp teachers connect course learning to their classroom teaching. In addition, qualitative data indicate that teachers' students found service learning to be highly motivational components to learning. The ECLC project, to be initiated in the fall 2011, will build on our GCCE experiences to create a sustainable virtual learning community of educators and scientists. Climate-change issues will serve as a context in which collaborative scientist-educator-teams will develop discrete, locally oriented research projects to facilitate development of confident, knowledgeable citizen-scientists within their classrooms.

Development of a Distributed Parallel Computing Framework to Facilitate Regional/Global Gridded Crop Modeling with Various Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engda, T. A.; Neff, J. C.; Herrick, J.

2017-12-01

Many crop models are increasingly used to evaluate crop yields at regional and global scales. However, implementation of these models across large areas using fine-scale grids is limited by computational time requirements. In order to facilitate global gridded crop modeling with various scenarios (i.e., different crop, management schedule, fertilizer, and irrigation) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, we developed a distributed parallel computing framework in Python. Our local desktop with 14 cores (28 threads) was used to test the distributed parallel computing framework in Iringa, Tanzania which has 406,839 grid cells. High-resolution soil data, SoilGrids (250 x 250 m), and climate data, AgMERRA (0.25 x 0.25 deg) were also used as input data for the gridded EPIC model. The framework includes a master file for parallel computing, input database, input data formatters, EPIC model execution, and output analyzers. Through the master file for parallel computing, the user-defined number of threads of CPU divides the EPIC simulation into jobs. Then, Using EPIC input data formatters, the raw database is formatted for EPIC input data and the formatted data moves into EPIC simulation jobs. Then, 28 EPIC jobs run simultaneously and only interesting results files are parsed and moved into output analyzers. We applied various scenarios with seven different slopes and twenty-four fertilizer ranges. Parallelized input generators create different scenarios as a list for distributed parallel computing. After all simulations are completed, parallelized output analyzers are used to analyze all outputs according to the different scenarios. This saves significant computing time and resources, making it possible to conduct gridded modeling at regional to global scales with high-resolution data. For example, serial processing for the Iringa test case would require 113 hours, while using the framework developed in this study requires only approximately 6 hours, a nearly 95% reduction in computing time.

Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørstad, Hanne; Webersik, Christian

2016-12-01

In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base and struggle with poverty, existing inequalities and historical injustices will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change. The empirical part of the paper answers the question as to what extent local women engaged in fish processing in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. The article assesses an adaptation project designed to make those women more resilient to a warmer and more variable climate. The research results show that marketing and improving fish processing as strategies to adapt to climate change have their limitations. The study concludes that livelihood diversification can be a more effective strategy for Malawian women to adapt to a more variable and unpredictable climate rather than exclusively relying on a resource base that is threatened by climate change.

Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Sihang; Zhang, Yuguang; Cong, Jing

Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRImore » (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.« less

Variations of soil microbial community structures beneath broadleaved forest trees in temperate and subtropical climate zones

DOE PAGES

Yang, Sihang; Zhang, Yuguang; Cong, Jing; ...

2017-02-10

Global warming has shifted climate zones poleward or upward. Furthermore, understanding the responses and mechanism of microbial community structure and functions relevant to natural climate zone succession is challenged by the high complexity of microbial communities. Here, we examined soil microbial community in three broadleaved forests located in the Wulu Mountain (WLM, temperate climate), Funiu Mountain (FNM, at the border of temperate and subtropical climate zones), or Shennongjia Mountain (SNJ, subtropical climate). Although plant species richness decreased with latitudes, the microbial taxonomic α-diversity increased with latitudes, concomitant with increases in soil total and available nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Phylogenetic NRImore » (Net Relatedness Index) values increased from 0.718 in temperate zone (WLM) to 1.042 in subtropical zone (SNJ), showing a shift from over dispersion to clustering likely caused by environmental filtering such as low pH and nutrients. Similarly, taxonomybased association networks of subtropical forest samples were larger and tighter, suggesting clustering. In contrast, functional α-diversity was similar among three forests, but functional gene networks of the FNM forest significantly (P < 0.050) differed from the others. A significant correlation (R = 0.616, P < 0.001) between taxonomic and functional β-diversity was observed only in the FNM forest, suggesting low functional redundancy at the border of climate zones. Using a strategy of space-fortime substitution, we predict that poleward climate range shift will lead to decreased microbial taxonomic α-diversities in broadleaved forest.« less

SUPREM-DSMC: A New Scalable, Parallel, Reacting, Multidimensional Direct Simulation Monte Carlo Flow Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, David; Wysong, Ingrid; Kaplan, Carolyn; Mott, David; Wadsworth, Dean; VanGilder, Douglas

2000-01-01

An AFRL/NRL team has recently been selected to develop a scalable, parallel, reacting, multidimensional (SUPREM) Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) code for the DoD user community under the High Performance Computing Modernization Office (HPCMO) Common High Performance Computing Software Support Initiative (CHSSI). This paper will introduce the JANNAF Exhaust Plume community to this three-year development effort and present the overall goals, schedule, and current status of this new code.

About the Climate Ready Estuaries Program

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Climate Ready Estuaries program is a partnership between EPA and the National Estuary Programs to address climate change in coastal areas. It has helped coastal communities prepare for climate change since 2008.

Effects of Institutional Climate and Culture on the Perceptions of the Working Environments of Public Community Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Stephanie J.; Taylor, Colette M.

2012-01-01

Researchers have found that, although community colleges continue to remain gendered organizations, their climates and cultures are perceived to be more open to women than are their college and university peers. Community colleges may in fact still have the male orientation of the higher education system despite their efforts to be…

Alpine vegetation communities and the alpine-treeline ecotone boundary in New England as biomonitors for climate change

Treesearch

Kenneth D. Kimball; Douglas M. Weihrauch

2000-01-01

This study mapped and analyzed the alpine-treeline ecotone (ATE) boundary and alpine plant communities on the Presidential Range, New Hampshire and Mount Katahdin, Maine. These are sensitive biomonitoring parameters for plant community responses to climatic change. The ATE boundary spans a considerable elevational range, suggesting that shorter growing seasons with...

Enabling the use of climate model data in the Dutch climate effect community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten

2010-05-01

Within the climate effect community the usage of climate model data is emerging. Where mostly climate time series and weather generators were used, there is a shift to incorporate climate model data into climate effect models. The use of climate model data within the climate effect models is difficult, due to missing metadata, resolution and projection issues, data formats and availability of the parameters of interest. Often the climate effect modelers are not aware of available climate model data or are not aware of how they can use it. Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNR-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 IS ENES (http://www.enes.org) project work package 10/JRA5 ‘Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community. The aims of this work package are to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. Phase one is to define use cases together with the Dutch climate effect community, which describe the intended use of climate model data in climate effect models. We defined four use cases: 1) FEWS hydrological Framework (Deltares) 2) METAPHOR, a plants and species dispersion model (Wageningen University) 3) Natuurplanner, an Ecological model suite (Wageningen University) 4) Land use models (Free University/JRC). Also the other partners in JRA5 have defined use cases, which are representative for the climate effect and impact communities in their country. Goal is to find commonalities between all defined use cases. The common functionality will be implemented as e-tools and incorporated in the IS-ENES data portal. Common issues relate to e.g., need for high resolution: downscaling from GCM to local scale (also involves interpolation); parameter selection; finding extremes; averaging methods. At the conference we will describe the FEWS case in more detail: Delft FEWS is an open shell system (in development since 1995) for performing hydrological predictions and the handling of time series data. The most important capabilities of FEWS are importing of meteorological and hydrological data and organizing the workflows of the different models which can be used within FEWS, like the Netherlands Hydrological Instrumentarium (NHI). Besides predictions, the system is currently being used for hydrological climate effects studies. Currently regionally downscaled data are used, but using model data will be the next step. This coupling of climate model data to FEWS will open a wider rage of climate impact and effect research, but it is a difficult task to accomplish. Issues to be dealt with are: regridding, downscaling, format conversion, extraction of required data and addition of descriptive metadata, including quality and uncertainty parameters. Finding an appropriate solution involves several iterations: first, the use case was defined, then we just provided a single data file containing some data of interest provided via FTP, next this data was offered through OGC services. Currently we are working on providing larger datasets and improving on the parameters and metadata. We will present the results (e-tools/data) and experiences gained on implementing the described use cases. Note that we are currently using experimental data, as the official climate model runs are not available yet.

Results of the UCAR 2008 Forum on Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, J.; Barron, E.

2008-12-01

Mayors, governors, and local decision makers are developing climate change action plans. They are not waiting for the federal carbon emission reduction debates to conclude (e.g., cap and trade or carbon tax legislation). Many of them are struggling with what should be in these plans, what they should be assuming about future weather and climate trends, and what the impact might be on their community and its infrastructure. In October 2008, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research held a forum at its 2008 Members' Meeting that focused on the UCAR community's role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Many of UCAR's 71 university members are involved in projects with local and regional decision makers struggling with planning for the future in the face of climate change. The forum focused on the following questions: 1. How are these projects working and what lessons have we learned? 2. What can our community can do to assist these partnerships (e.g., models and other tools, better information, training opportunities, outreach, sharing ideas, etc.)? 3. Can we help our nation deal more effectively with climate mitigation and adaptation by being more strategic with these partnerships (e.g., more coordination, creating packages of tools and information, creating common approaches to climate action plans, developing better communication tools, community strategic planning effort, etc.)? This presentation will provide a summary of the forum outcomes.

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Soil Microbial Community Responses to Short-term Multiple Experimental Climate Change Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Guanlin; Lee, Jongyeol; Lee, Sohye; Roh, Yujin; Son, Yowhan

2016-04-01

It is agreed that soil microbial communities are responsible for the cycling of carbon and nutrients in ecosystems; however, the response of these microbial communities to climate change has not been clearly understood. In this study, we measured the direct and interactive effects of climate change drivers on soil bacterial and fungal communities (abundance and composition) in an open-field multifactor climate change experiment. The experimental treatment system was established with two-year-old Pinus densiflora seedlings at Korea University in April 2013, and consisted of six different treatments with three replicates: two levels of air temperature warming (control and +3° C) were crossed with three levels of precipitation manipulation (control, -30% and +30%). After 2.5 years of treatments, in August, 2015, soil samples were collected from the topsoil (0-15cm) of all plots (n=18). High-throughput sequencing technology was used to assess the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Analysis of variance for a blocked split-plot design was used to detect the effects of climate change drivers and their interaction on the abundance and composition of soil bacterial and fungal community. Our results showed that 1) only the significant effect of warming on fungal community abundance was observed (P <0.05); 2) on average, warming decreased both bacterial and fungal community abundance by 20.90% and 32.30%, 6.69% and 45.89%, 14.71% and 19.56% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 3) however, warming increased the relative bacterium/fungus ratio on average by 14.03%, 37.03% and 14.31% in control, decreased, and increased precipitation plots, respectively; 4) the phylogenetic distribution of bacterial and fungal groups and their relative abundance varied among treatments; 5) treatments altered the relative abundance of Ascomycota and Basidiomycota, where Ascomycota decreased with a concomitant increase in the Basidiomycota across all treatments; and 6) the shift induced by treatments in the dominant fungal group was larger than bacterial group. Since soil microorganisms differ in their susceptibility to stressors, the changes in the soil microbial communities may result from treatment-induced shifts in soil temperature and moisture. Our results indicate that climate change drivers and their interactions may cause changes in abundance and composition of soil microbial communities, especially for the fungal community. These results illustrate climate change drivers and their interactions may select for distinct soil microbial communities, and these community changes may shape the way ecosystems function in the future. This study was supported by National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF-2013R1A1A2012242).

Psychological Climate of the Multicampus Community College: A Campus Amalgam?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klimek, Richard J.; Hodinko, Bernard A.

1977-01-01

Differences in the CUES II dimensions of psychological climate found between two campuses of a multicampus community college suggest that, environmentally, multicampus colleges are as diverse from one campus to another as one institution is from another institution. (Author)

Climate change adaptation planning for the Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada: A combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melton, J. R.; Kaplan, J. O.; Matthews, R.; Sydneysmith, R.; Tesluk, J.; Piggot, G.; Robinson, D. C.; Brinkman, D.; Marmorek, D.; Cohen, S.; McPherson, K.

2011-12-01

The Skeena region of British Columbia, Canada is among the world's most important commercial forest production areas, a key transportation corridor, and provides critical habitat for salmon and other wildlife. Climate change compounds threats to the region from other local environmental and social challenges. To aid local communities in adaptive planning for future climate change impacts, our project combined biophysical modelling, social science, and community engagement in a participatory approach to build regional capacity to prepare and respond to climate change. The sociological aspect of our study interviewed local leaders and resource managers (both First Nations and settlers groups in three communities) to examine how perceptions of environmental and socioeconomic issues have changed in the recent past, and the values placed on diverse natural resources at the present. The three communities differed in their perception of the relative value and condition of community resources, such as small business, natural resource trade, education and local government. However, all three communities regarded salmon as their most important and threatened resource. The most important future drivers of change in the study region were perceived to be: "aboriginal rights, title and treaty settlements", "availability of natural resources", "natural resource policies", and the "global economy". Climate change, as a potential driver of change in the region, was perceived as less important than other socio-economic factors; even though climate records for the region already demonstrate warmer winters, decreased snowfall, and decreased spring precipitation over the last half century. The natural science component of our project applies a regional-scale dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to simulate the potential future of forest ecosystems, with a focus on how climate change and management strategy interact to influence forest productivity, disturbance frequency, species composition, and carbon storage. LPJ-GUESS was parameterized for 19 tree species and driven by a suite of downscaled projected GCM climate scenarios and an optional forest management scenario at a ~1km spatial resolution over the entire ca. 32,000 km2 study area. Preliminary results show the greatest impacts on hydrology rather than forest productivity or carbon cycling. However, even small changes in forest composition, shrinking of the alpine tundra zones, and forest management for optimal productivity, along with ongoing climate change, could increase impacts on hydrology, ultimately affecting fisheries and other valuable natural resources. These modelling results will be presented to the Skeena communities in a second round of interviews to determine if these results alter residents' views on the importance of climate change to the future of their region.

Sustained Assessment, Version n.0: Efforts of the Sustained Assessment Working Group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.; Barrie, D.; Reidmiller, D.; Lewis, K.

2017-12-01

In parallel with the development of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3, 2014), the U.S. Global Change Research Program, with inputs from the non-federal climate assessment community, sought to define a sustained assessment process. Although many elements of a sustained process were initiated during NCA3 and continued into the NCA4 era, progress is still needed. To address this need, a new Federal Interagency working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) - the Sustained Assessment Working Group (SAWG) - was established in summer 2017. Its formation was motivated by a desire to avoid the sharp peaks in effort that accompanies production of the Congressionally-mandated quadrennial Assessment, followed by the dips in activity after a report is completed. With a goal of distributing and flattening effort, and providing a way to sustain engagement and better connect assessment-relevant activities, the SAWG is using inputs from the thirteen USGCRP agencies, federal advisory groups, and other sources to make recommendations to the agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The group will work with the agencies to implement these recommendations and monitor progress toward creating a sustained - and sustainable - assessment process. This presentation will detail the efforts and goals of SAWG and report on recent milestones.

Communicating Climate Hazards Information in the Urban Community to the Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCalla, M. R.

2004-12-01

Climate simulations are predicting an overall warming of the atmosphere due to greenhouse gases. For example, CO2 allows sunlight to reach the earth and warm its surface, but it prevents a portion of this surface heat from escaping the atmosphere. This greenhouse effect can result in higher mean atmospheric temperatures near the Earth's surface. If these predictions are correct, changes in temperature can increase the power demand to cool urban building structures (homes, schools, offices, storage facilities, etc.). Similarly, the regional and seasonal temperature fluctuations due to climate oscillations (El Nino, for example) may also increase the power demand for heating and cooling. A warming climate (or cooling climate, for that matter) can also affect the available water for drinking, irrigation, and generating power, all of which impact the viability and sustainability of the urban community. Additionally, urban areas are expanding. Consequently, the distance between city and wildlands is decreasing. The wildland-urban interface often stresses biodiversity, forestation, and the urban area's ability to respond adequately to such climate-induced hazards as forest fires, flooding, and coastal erosion. Thus climate has an impact on humans and vice versa. How can scientists communicate the impact of climate on the urban community? What is the best way to communicate the information so that the public can (1) be informed and (2) make informed decisions? How well is the nexus between climate science and impacts on and benefits to decision makers understood? What is the best way to fully exploit that connection so that the public can develop intervention measures to support the urban community's response to climatic impacts? The Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM) is an interdepartmental office established in response to Public Law 87-843 with the express purpose of ensuring the effective use of federal meteorological resources by leading the systematic coordination of operational weather and climate requirements, services, products, capabilities, information, modeling, and supporting research among the federal agencies. Toward that end, the OFCM, in partnership with the Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate, is sponsoring a September 2004 forum on urban meteorology. The theme of the forum is "Information to Improve Community Responses to Urban Atmospheric Hazards, Weather Events, and Climate." Forum participants and speakers will come from both the public and private sectors, as well as the academic community. The output of the forum will be to specifically answer such questions as (1) how will emerging technologies help communicate risks more effectively to the urban community; (2) how can education, outreach, and training be more effective in eliciting an appropriate public response; and (3) what methods are needed to better communicate and disseminate climate information to the public? The communication recommendations stemming from the urban meteorology forum will be shared with AGU conference participants.

Faculty and Community Collaboration in Sustained Community-University Engagement Partnerships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Angela Danyell

2009-01-01

This dissertation is a qualitative case study of the factors of collaboration between faculty and community partners in sustained community-university engagement partnerships at a public research university in the Midwest. Based on secondary data from an annual, online, mixed-method survey of faculty-reported engagement activity, parallel yet…

Simplified Parallel Domain Traversal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J

2011-01-01

Many data-intensive scientific analysis techniques require global domain traversal, which over the years has been a bottleneck for efficient parallelization across distributed-memory architectures. Inspired by MapReduce and other simplified parallel programming approaches, we have designed DStep, a flexible system that greatly simplifies efficient parallelization of domain traversal techniques at scale. In order to deliver both simplicity to users as well as scalability on HPC platforms, we introduce a novel two-tiered communication architecture for managing and exploiting asynchronous communication loads. We also integrate our design with advanced parallel I/O techniques that operate directly on native simulation output. We demonstrate DStep bymore » performing teleconnection analysis across ensemble runs of terascale atmospheric CO{sub 2} and climate data, and we show scalability results on up to 65,536 IBM BlueGene/P cores.« less

Adapting Infrastructure and Civil Engineering Practice to a Changing Climate: Developing a Manual of Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, D.; Ayyub, B. M.

2017-12-01

According to U.S. Census, new construction spending in the U.S. for 2014 was $993 Billion (roughly 6 percent of U.S. GDP). Informing the development of standards of engineering practice related to design and maintenance thus represents a significant opportunity to promote climate adaptation and mitigation, as well as community resilience. The climate science community informs us that extremes of climate and weather are changing from historical values and that the changes are driven substantially by emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activities. Civil infrastructure systems traditionally have been designed, constructed, operated and maintained for appropriate probabilities of functionality, durability and safety while exposed to climate and weather extremes during their full service lives. Because of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and in the models for future climate and weather extremes, neither the climate science community nor the engineering community presently can define the statistics of future climate and weather extremes. The American Society for Civil Engineering's (ASCE) Committee on Adapting to a Changing Climate is actively involved in efforts internal and external to ASCE to promote understanding of the challenges climate change represents in engineering practice and to promote a re-examination of those practices that may need to change in light of changing climate. In addition to producing an ASCE e-book, as well as number of ASCE webinars, the Committee is currently developing a Manual of Practice intended to provide guidance for the development or enhancement of standards for infrastructure analysis and design in a world in which risk profiles are changing (non-stationarity) and climate change is a reality, but cannot be projected with a high degree of certainty. This presentation will explore both the need for such guidance as well as some of the challenges and opportunities facing its implementation.

Recent Challenges Facing US Government Climate Science Access and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carter, J. M.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Climate scientists have long faced politicization of their work, especially those working within the US federal government. However, political interference in federal government climate change science has escalated in the current political era with efforts by political actors to undermine and disrupt infrastructure supporting climate science. This has included funding changes, decreased access to climate science information on federal agency websites, restrictions on media access to scientific experts within the government, and rolling back of science-based policies designed to incorporate and respond to climate science findings. What are the impacts of such changes for both the climate science community and the broader public? What can be done to ensure that access to and application of climate change-related research to policy decisions continues? We will summarize and analyze the state of climate change research and application in the US government. The impacts of political interference in climate change science as well as opportunities the scientific community has to support climate science in the US government, will be discussed.

The structure of parasite communities in fish hosts: ecology meets geography and climate.

PubMed

Poulin, R

2007-09-01

Parasite communities in fish hosts are not uniform in space: their diversity, composition and abundance vary across the geographical range of a host species. Increasingly urgently, we need to understand the geographic component of parasite communities to better predict how they will respond to global climate change. Patterns of geographical variation in the abundance of parasite populations, and in the diversity and composition of parasite communities, are explored here, and the ways in which they may be affected by climate change are discussed. The time has come to transform fish parasite ecology from a mostly descriptive discipline into a predictive science, capable of integrating complex ecological data to generate forecasts about the future state of host-parasite systems.

The future of climate science analysis in a coming era of exascale computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, S. C.; Strand, G.

2013-12-01

Projections of Community Earth System Model (CESM) output based on the growth of data archived over 2000-2012 at all of our computing sites (NCAR, NERSC, ORNL) show that we can expect to reach 1,000 PB (1 EB) sometime in the next decade or so. The current paradigms of using site-based archival systems to hold these data that are then accessed via portals or gateways, downloading the data to a local system, and then processing/analyzing the data will be irretrievably broken before then. From a climate modeling perspective, the expertise involved in making climate models themselves efficient on HPC systems will need to be applied to the data as well - providing fast parallel analysis tools co-resident in memory with the data, because the disk I/O bandwidth simply will not keep up with the expected arrival of exaflop systems. The ability of scientists, analysts, stakeholders and others to use climate model output to turn these data into understanding and knowledge will require significant advances in the current typical analysis tools and packages to enable these processes for these vast volumes of data. Allowing data users to enact their own analyses on model output is virtually a requirement as well - climate modelers cannot anticipate all the possibilities for analysis that users may want to do. In addition, the expertise of data scientists, and their knowledge of the model output and their knowledge of best practices in data management (metadata, curation, provenance and so on) will need to be rewarded and exploited to gain the most understanding possible from these volumes of data. In response to growing data size, demand, and future projections, the CESM output has undergone a structure evolution and the data management plan has been reevaluated and updated. The major evolution of the CESM data structure is presented here, along with the CESM experience and role within the CMIP3/CMIP5.

Study of phase clustering method for analyzing large volumes of meteorological observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkov, Yu. V.; Krutikov, V. A.; Botygin, I. A.; Sherstnev, V. S.; Sherstneva, A. I.

2017-11-01

The article describes an iterative parallel phase grouping algorithm for temperature field classification. The algorithm is based on modified method of structure forming by using analytic signal. The developed method allows to solve tasks of climate classification as well as climatic zoning for any time or spatial scale. When used to surface temperature measurement series, the developed algorithm allows to find climatic structures with correlated changes of temperature field, to make conclusion on climate uniformity in a given area and to overview climate changes over time by analyzing offset in type groups. The information on climate type groups specific for selected geographical areas is expanded by genetic scheme of class distribution depending on change in mutual correlation level between ground temperature monthly average.

3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and 3rd Annual Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Face-to-Face Meeting Report December 2013

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

The climate and weather data science community gathered December 3–5, 2013, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, in Livermore, California, for the third annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Meeting, which was hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UV-CDAT are global collaborations designed to develop a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to observed andmore » simulated data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure developed under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change, while the F2F meetings help to build a stronger climate and weather data science community and stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2013 F2F meeting determined requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects; enhancements needed for data distribution, analysis, and visualization infrastructure; and standards and resources needed for better collaborations.« less

Building partnerships with Indigenous communities around climate change: A new UCAR initiative.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, R. E.

2008-12-01

The atmospheric and related sciences have one of the lowest rates of participation by American Indians of any physical science. This not only disadvantages the atmospheric sciences by isolating them from a rich and relevant intellectual heritage, it disadvantages tribal communities who seek to apply the insights from atmospheric sciences to planning their own future. In a time of rapid environmental change and its impact on tribal lands and all lands, the need for connection between these two communities is especially urgent. In 2007, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research launched a new Community Building Program, in order to catalyze and coordinate activities that contribute to UCAR's strategic goal of developing a diverse atmospheric science workforce. A key goal of this program has been to look for partnerships with the American Indian community around climate change issues. The goal of these partnerships is to support North American tribal efforts to enhance their own scientific and adaptive capacity around climate change. In the early stages of this partnership, we have listened to some important messages from Indigenous communities: •Climate change, like all things related to the landscape, is intimately connected to identity and sovereignty • Scientific expertise is one among many skills indigenous people employ in their relation with their homelands • Climate change research and education are embedded in decision-making about economic development, energy, public health as well as cultural preservation, language, and tribal sovereignty This presentation will be an opportunity to check and extend these insights discuss and use them as a basis for a long-term partnership between UCAR and tribal communities.

Demographic Planning: An Action Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, Harold L.; Smith, Joyce

1974-01-01

Community colleges are in a good position to obtain reliable long-term forecasts of future demand. An approach developed at Johnson County Community College in Overland Park, Kansas, has enabled the college to assist other community institutions in their parallel planning efforts. (Author/MLF)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Arthur; Cayan, Daniel; Pierce, David

This project addressed the ability of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3 and CCSM4), the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and other models to simulate the processes involved in controlling winter storms affecting the U.S. West Coast as well as other precipitation processes in the climate system.

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway

Treesearch

Vegard Gundersen; Bjorn Petter Kaltenborn; Daniel R. Williams

2016-01-01

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climateinduced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five...

Regime Shift in an Exploited Fish Community Related to Natural Climate Oscillations.

PubMed

Auber, Arnaud; Travers-Trolet, Morgane; Villanueva, Maria Ching; Ernande, Bruno

2015-01-01

Identifying the various drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts and disentangling their respective influence are critical tasks for understanding biodiversity dynamics and properly managing exploited living resources such as marine fish communities. Unfortunately, the mechanisms and forcing factors underlying regime shifts in marine fish communities are still largely unknown although climate forcing and anthropogenic pressures such as fishing have been suggested as key determinants. Based on a 24-year-long time-series of scientific surveys monitoring 55 fish and cephalopods species, we report here a rapid and persistent structural change in the exploited fish community of the eastern English Channel from strong to moderate dominance of small-bodied forage fish species with low temperature preferendum that occurred in the mid-1990s. This shift was related to a concomitant warming of the North Atlantic Ocean as attested by a switch of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation from a cold to a warm phase. Interestingly, observed changes in the fish community structure were opposite to those classically induced by exploitation as larger fish species of higher trophic level increased in abundance. Despite not playing a direct role in the regime shift, fishing still appeared as a forcing factor affecting community structure. Moreover, although related to climate, the regime shift may have been facilitated by strong historic exploitation that certainly primed the system by favoring the large dominance of small-bodied fish species that are particularly sensitive to climatic variations. These results emphasize that particular attention should be paid to multidecadal natural climate variability and its interactions with both fishing and climate warming when aiming at sustainable exploitation and ecosystem conservation.

iSeeChange: Crowdsourced Climate Change Reporting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drapkin, J. K.

2012-12-01

Directly engaging local communities about their climate change experiences has never been more important. As weather and climate become more unpredictable, these experiences provide a baseline for community decisions, developing adaptation strategies, and planning for the future. Typically, climate change is documented in a top-down fashion: a scientist has a question, makes observations, and publishes a study; in the best case scenario, a journalist reports on the results; if there's time, a local anecdote is sought to put the results in a familiar context. iSeeChange, a public media project funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, reports local environmental change in reverse and turns community questions and conversations with scientists into reported stories that promote opportunities to learn about climate change's affects on the environment and daily life. iSeeChange engages residents of the North Fork Valley region of western Colorado in a multiplatform conversation with scientists about how they perceive their environment is changing through the course of a year - season to season. By bringing together public radio, a mobile reporting and cellular engagement strategy, and a custom crowdsourcing multimedia platform, iSeeChange provides a central access point to collect observations (texts, photographs, voice recordings, and video), organize conversations and interviews with scientists, and report stories online and on air. In this way, iSeeChange is building a dynamic crowdsourced reservoir of information that can increase awareness of environmental problems and potentially disseminate useful information about climate change and successful adaptation strategies. Ultimately, by understanding the community's information needs in a localized question-driven context, the iSeeChange platform presents opportunities for the science community to better understand the value of information and develop better ways to tailor information for communities to use in the future.t;

Climate Change Education on Public Health Consequences and Impacts to the Human System - An Interdisciplinary Approach to Promoting Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matiella Novak, M.; Paxton, L. J.

2012-12-01

In this talk we will discuss our approach to translating an abstract, difficult to internalize idea ("climate change") into knowledge that speaks to people directly in terms of their own lives. Recent research suggests that communicating climate change in the context of public health impacts, and even national security risks, is a more effective method of reaching communities that are currently disengaged or nonresponsive to climate change science than the approaches currently being used. Understanding that these new perspectives might reach a broader audience, the Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project has proposed implementing a suite of education activities that focus on the public health consequences that will arise and/or becoming exacerbated by climate change. Reaching the disparate communities that must be brought together to create a workable approach is challenging. GAIA has developed a novel framework for sharing information and developing communities of interest that cross boundaries in what is otherwise a highly disciplinary approach to climate change studies. Members of the GAIA community include climate change, environmental and public health experts, as well as relevant stakeholders, policy makers and decision makers. By leveraging the existing expertise within the GAIA community, an opportunity exists to present climate change education (CCE) in a way that emphasizes how climate change will affect public health, and utilizes an approach that has been shown to engage a broader and more diverse audience. Focusing CCE on public health effects is a new and potentially transformative method since it makes the results more tangible and less "random". When CCE is focused on what will happen to the Earth's climate and associated meteorological hazards one might be tempted to view this as something that can be coped with thus enabling the individualist entrepreneur point of view. Weather disasters always seem to happen to someone else - someone not like you. On the other hand, public health impacts are felt by millions and lead to very high costs and those impacts are something with which most people have direct experiences. We will discuss, for example, how climate change can be framed as a cost/benefit problem by looking at the long term costs of increase in disease and illness such as the startling trends in childhood asthma. Changes in water availability, and water and air quality, will result from a warming climate, with measureable consequences for public health: disease spread, food and water security, respiratory health, etc. By integrating this information with education efforts, society, educators and decision makers will have a better understanding of how climate change affects the human system, and what decisions can be made at the individual and community levels to mitigate and adapt to climate change. We will show how this can be achieved.

Overcoming Barriers: Tailoring Climate Education for Latino and non-Latino Citizen to Impact Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, M.; Boudrias, M. A.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Gershunov, A.; Anders, S.

2013-12-01

Culture has been shown to be an important determinant of Latino/Hispanic American environmental attitudes (Schultz, Unipan, & Gamba, 2000), which might help to explain the underrepresentation of Latinos in the U.S. 'environmental' movement. With shifting U.S. demographics, however, there is increased urgency to understand how Latinos integrate into the community that is concerned and literate about climate change. As part of the Climate Education Partners (CEP) work in San Diego, we investigated how to address this ethnic group disparity. In this paper, we describe a study of how climate change science knowledge relates to Latino and Non-Latino citizen (a) engagement in conservation behaviors and (b) more informed decision-making. Drawing upon previous work on the Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) (Estrada et al., 2011), we hypothesized that climate change knowledge that promotes efficacy (i.e., a sense that one can do something) would relate to greater engagement in conservation behaviors and more informed decision-making (both common of community members concerned about climate change). To test this model, 1001 San Diego residence participated in a telephone survey in which the attitudes towards climate change were assessed using '6 Americas' segmentation (Leiserowitz et al., 2011), in addition to climate change science knowledge, efficacy, values, and engagement in weekly and yearly climate change friendly behaviors (e.g., conservation, transportation, community engagement behaviors). Results showed that there were significant differences in the 6 America segmentation distributions, knowledge, efficacy and behavioral engagement with Latinos significantly more concerned than Non-Latinos, and reporting greater knowledge, efficacy and engagement in behaviors. However, data from both groups showed support for the TIMSI theoretical framework, such that efficacy mediated the relationship between climate change knowledge and behavior. Thus, for both groups, climate change science knowledge was more likely to result in behavioral engagement when the science knowledge was accompanied with the belief that one has the ability to engage in behaviors that mitigate or adapt to climate change (i.e., efficacy). Implications for how to improve both Latino and Non-Latino climate change education that results in informed decision-making and greater integration into the community concerned about climate change will be discussed.

Creating a Learning Community for Solutions to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. J.; Benedict, B. A.; Blockstein, D. E.; Hassenzahl, D. M.; Hunter, A.; Jorgensen, A. D.; Pfirman, S. L.

2011-12-01

The rapidly evolving and interdisciplinary nature of climate change presents a challenge to colleges and universities as they seek to educate undergraduate students. To address this challenge, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) with NSF funding is creating a nationwide cyber-enabled learning community called CAMEL (Climate, Adaptation, and Mitigation e-Learning). CAMEL engages experts in science, policy and decision-making, education, and assessment in the production of a virtual toolbox of curricular resources designed for teaching climate change causes, consequences, and solutions. CAMEL is: ? Developing cyberinfrastructure that supports and promotes the creation of materials and community; ? Generating materials for the Encyclopedia of Earth, a site averaging 50,000 views per day; ? Ensuring that materials developed and shared are founded on the best available scientific information and follow the most appropriate educational practices; ? Assisting faculty at institutions of higher education across the United States as they create, improve, test, and share resources for teaching students not only how to diagnose climate change problems, but also to identify and effect solutions; ? Evaluating the determinants of successful community building using cybermedia. The community and resultant content range from general education to upper division courses for students in a variety of majors. At the center of the community are the 160 colleges and universities represented in NCSE's Council of Environmental Deans and Directors. Members of this group represent recognized expertise in virtually all areas of this project. A team with substantial experience with evaluating innovative initiatives in STEM education is administering the evaluation component.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

PubMed Central

Alexander, Jake M.; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I.; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-01-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: “dispersal lags” affecting plant species’ spread along elevational gradients, “establishment lags” following their arrival in recipient communities, and “extinction lags” of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species’ range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. PMID:29112781

Multiple climate drivers accelerate Arctic plant community senescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livensperger, C.; Steltzer, H.; Wallenstein, M. D.; Weintraub, M. N.

2015-12-01

Alteration of seasonal phenology cues due to climate change has led to changes in the onset and duration of the growing season. While photoperiod often acts as an ultimate control on phenological events, recent studies have shown that environmental cues such as temperature and soil water content can modify the direction and rate of senescence processes. Warmer temperatures have resulted in an observed trend towards delayed senescence across temperate latitudes. However, Arctic regions are characterized by extreme seasonality and rapidly decreasing photoperiod, and consequently senescence may not shift as climate warms. We monitored the timing of Arctic plant community senescence for three years under the framework of an experimental manipulation that altered seasonal phenological cues through warming and earlier snowmelt. Alternative models of senescence were tested to determine if microclimate (air temperature, soil temperature, and soil moisture) or start of season phenology affect the timing and rate of community senescence. We found that all three microclimate predictors contributed to explaining variation in timing of senescence, suggesting that photoperiod is not the sole control on timing of senescence in Arctic plant communities. Rather, increased air and soil temperatures along with drier soil conditions, led to acceleration in the onset of senescence at a community level. Our data suggest that (1) multiple climate drivers predict timing of plant community senescence, and (2) climate change could result in a shorter peak season due to earlier onset of senescence, which would decrease the potential carbon uptake in moist acidic tundra.

Individual to Community-Level Faunal Responses to Environmental Change from a Marine Fossil Record of Early Miocene Global Warming

PubMed Central

Belanger, Christina L.

2012-01-01

Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (∼20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1–4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability. PMID:22558424

Overcoming the Challenges of Co-creation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandya, R.; Udu-gama, N.; Goodwin, M.; Otellini, P.

2016-12-01

There is growing interest in co-creation, especially for community-related issues like climate change, resilience, pollution, and environmental justice. Nevertheless, co-creation is still not mainstream practice in either geosciences or the world of decision-makers. This presents many challenges. On the science side, challenges include a paucity of training opportunities, lack of funding for co-creation, difficulty publishing or otherwise getting credit for the effort, and a perceived lack of prestige compared to theoretical research. On the community side, parallel challenges include a lack of experience working with scientists or thinking about geoscience's relevance to community issues, tight budgets and competing priorities, the need for outputs beyond publications, and the difficulty including science among a range of factors. Additionally, scientists and community leaders often work across public and private sectors and must navigate different approaches to data, privacy, and accountability. We'll use this session to explore opportunities to overcome the challenges of co-creation. Systems thinking suggests a range of approaches: enabling individuals, reducing specific challenges, changing the relationship between the elements of the systems, and changing the goals or mindsets of the systems - each more powerful than the last. For example, mentoring and coaching enables individuals, and pro-bono work eases the challenge of getting professional credit. New modes of output, like plain language abstracts, change the relationship between publications and other outputs. We can work on changing mindsets by publicizing and celebrating individual successes. With more effort and impact, we can build collaborations in the collective impact model, where we bring scientific and community organizations together around a common agenda and shared measurement. Building on these examples, we will use this session to collect strategies and opportunities from all participants.

The Open Global Glacier Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers are one of the few remaining sub-systems of the global climate system for which no globally applicable, open source, community-driven model exists. Notable examples from the ice sheet community include the Parallel Ice Sheet Model or Elmer/Ice. While the atmospheric modeling community has a long tradition of sharing models (e.g. the Weather Research and Forecasting model) or comparing them (e.g. the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project or CMIP), recent initiatives originating from the glaciological community show a new willingness to better coordinate global research efforts following the CMIP example (e.g. the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project or the Glacier Ice Thickness Estimation Working Group). In the recent past, great advances have been made in the global availability of data and methods relevant for glacier modeling, spanning glacier outlines, automatized glacier centerline identification, bed rock inversion methods, and global topographic data sets. Taken together, these advances now allow the ice dynamics of glaciers to be modeled on a global scale, provided that adequate modeling platforms are available. Here, we present the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), developed to provide a global scale, modular, and open source numerical model framework for consistently simulating past and future global scale glacier change. Global not only in the sense of leading to meaningful results for all glaciers combined, but also for any small ensemble of glaciers, e.g. at the headwater catchment scale. Modular to allow combinations of different approaches to the representation of ice flow and surface mass balance, enabling a new kind of model intercomparison. Open source so that the code can be read and used by anyone and so that new modules can be added and discussed by the community, following the principles of open governance. Consistent in order to provide uncertainty measures at all realizable scales.

The Challenges of Creating Climate Change Education Cross-Sector Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.

2017-12-01

Communities will have to address the impacts of climate change on their environment whether it is for adaptation - to build resilience and establish preparedness, or for mitigation - to migrate to cleaner energy sources and reduce energy use. To effectively address these impacts community leaders and professionals will need to develop an understanding of and solutions to the problems that result from climate change. The effort will need to be conducted with a cross-sector approach as all members of a community (individuals and organizations/businesses/ groups) will be impacted. Students should be involved in this effort to help them develop the critical thinking and data analysis skills they will need in the future to make responsible decisions for themselves, their community, and professionally. However, engaging businesses, organizations, and government in a coherent aligned partnership that addresses short and long term local impacts of climate change as well as the longer-term goal of preparing the future climate ready workforce has multiple challenges. Each business, organization and government agency has it own mission and goals, and metrics of achieving them. In creating an effective cross-sector partnership it is essential to determine for each partner where their mission, services, products, and activities can benefit the partnership and where the partnership can help them improve their multiple bottom lines (financial, social, envionmental) and show the value of their participation to their boards and leadership. Cross-sector partnerships have begun to form in many communities, however, financing them is difficult and most do not include education, a critical leverage element, for either the future workforce or to support current decision makers. In this presentation we will examine community partnerships that are working to address local climate issues and explore the obstacles to integrating education in these cross-sector climate change partnerships and how to overcome them.

The centrality of social ties to climate migration and mental health.

PubMed

Torres, Jacqueline M; Casey, Joan A

2017-07-06

Climate change-related hazards and disasters, known to adversely impact physical and mental health outcomes, are also expected to result in human migration above current levels. Environmentally-motivated migration and displacement may lead to the disruption of existing social ties, with potentially adverse consequences for mobile populations as well as their family members who remain in places of origin. We propose that the disruption of social ties is a key mechanism by which climate-related migration may negatively impact mental health, in particular. Existing social ties may provide social and material resources that buffer mental health stressors related to both prolonged and acute climate events. Preparation for such events may also strengthen these same ties and protect mental health. Communities may leverage social ties, first to mitigate climate change, and second, to adapt and rebuild post-disaster in communities of origin. Additionally, social ties can inform migration decisions and destinations. For example, scholars have found that the drought-motivated adaptive migration of West African Fulbe herders only occurred because of the long-term development of social networks between migrants and non-migrants through trade and seasonal grazing. On the other hand, social ties do not always benefit mental health. Some migrants, including those from poor regions or communities with no formal safety net, may face considerable burden to provide financial and emotional resources to family members who remain in countries of origin. In destination communities, migrants often face significant social marginalization. Therefore, policies and programs that aim to maintain ongoing social ties among migrants and their family and community members may be critically important in efforts to enhance population resilience and adaptation to climate change and to improve mental health outcomes. Several online platforms, like Refugee Start Force, serve to integrate refugees by connecting migrants directly to people and services in destination communities. These efforts may increasingly draw upon novel technologies to support and maintain social networks in the context of population mobility due to climatic and other factors.

Climate Change Schools Project...

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKinzey, Krista

2010-01-01

This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

Controlled comparison of species- and community-level models across novel climates and communities

PubMed Central

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.; Ferrier, Simon; Lorenz, David J.

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) assume species exist in isolation and do not influence one another's distributions, thus potentially limiting their ability to predict biodiversity patterns. Community-level models (CLMs) capitalize on species co-occurrences to fit shared environmental responses of species and communities, and therefore may result in more robust and transferable models. Here, we conduct a controlled comparison of five paired SDMs and CLMs across changing climates, using palaeoclimatic simulations and fossil-pollen records of eastern North America for the past 21 000 years. Both SDMs and CLMs performed poorly when projected to time periods that are temporally distant and climatically dissimilar from those in which they were fit; however, CLMs generally outperformed SDMs in these instances, especially when models were fit with sparse calibration datasets. Additionally, CLMs did not over-fit training data, unlike SDMs. The expected emergence of novel climates presents a major forecasting challenge for all models, but CLMs may better rise to this challenge by borrowing information from co-occurring taxa. PMID:26962143

Transect studies on pine forests along parallel 52° north, 12-32° east and along a pollution gradient in Poland: general assumptions

Treesearch

Alicja Breymeyer

1998-01-01

The responses of pine forest to changing climate and environmental chemistry were studied along two transects following the pollution and continentality gradients in Poland. One axis begins on the western border of Poland, crosses the country along the 52nd parallel, and ends on the eastern border of Poland in the area of Bialowieza National Park, Biosphere Reserve....

Supercomputing '91; Proceedings of the 4th Annual Conference on High Performance Computing, Albuquerque, NM, Nov. 18-22, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Various papers on supercomputing are presented. The general topics addressed include: program analysis/data dependence, memory access, distributed memory code generation, numerical algorithms, supercomputer benchmarks, latency tolerance, parallel programming, applications, processor design, networks, performance tools, mapping and scheduling, characterization affecting performance, parallelism packaging, computing climate change, combinatorial algorithms, hardware and software performance issues, system issues. (No individual items are abstracted in this volume)

Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Framework for Action

PubMed Central

Simane, Belay; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Mesfin, Desalegn

2012-01-01

Ethiopia has become warmer over the past century and human induced climate change will bring further warming over the next century at unprecedented rates. On the average, climate models show a tendency for higher mean annual rainfall and for wetter conditions, in particular during October, November and December, but there is much uncertainty about the future amount, distribution, timing and intensity of rainfall. Ethiopia’s low level of economic development, combined with its heavy dependence on agriculture and high population growth rate make the country particularly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. Nearly 90% of Ethiopia’s population lives in the Highlands, which include the critical Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands—a region that holds special importance due to its role in domestic agricultural production and international water resources. A five year study of climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies in communities of Choke Mountain, located in the center of the Abay Highlands, has informed a proposed framework for enhancing climate resilience in communities across the region. The framework is motivated by the critical need to enhance capacity to cope with climate change and, subsequently, to advance a carbon neutral and climate resilient economy in Ethiopia. The implicit hypothesis in applying a research framework for this effort is that science-based information, generated through improved understanding of impacts and vulnerabilities of local communities, can contribute to enhanced resilience strategies. We view adaptation to climate change in a wider context of changes, including, among others, market conditions, the political-institutional framework, and population dynamics. From a livelihood perspective, culture, historical settings, the diversity of income generation strategies, knowledge, and education are important factors that contribute to adaptive capacities. This paper reviews key findings of the Choke Mountain study, describes the principles of the climate resilience framework, and proposes an implementation strategy for climate resilient development to be applied in the Abay Highlands, with potential expansion to agricultural communities across the region and beyond. PMID:22470313

Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

2012-12-01

The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key Influentials described themselves as concerned about climate change, they believed only 10% of their peers were equally concerned. Results from a public opinion survey of 1001 San Diego residents exhibited two clear trends: San Diegans were consistently more attuned and concerned about climate change and its impacts than nationwide average; and similar to the KI findings, they do not believe others are as concerned as they are. Further, mediation analysis of results supported TIMSI, showing that climate change education that promotes efficacy, identity and values endorsed by a concerned community are most likely to result in engagement in mitigation and adaptive behaviors. All CCEP-I activities informed and directed the design of our Phase II Strategic plan and will provide baseline data for assessing changes that occur as we implement the educational plan. Implementation strategies for the next Phase will emphasize (1) presenting local climate science and unique climate impacts, (2) working with Key Influentials in diverse ways, including educational both formal and informal dialogues for this non-traditional audience, developing climate education messages to be delivered by KIs to their peers and their communities, and engaging certain KIs to be the portal to their constituents; and (3) using social media to connect educators and their audiences.

[Succession of Larix olgensis and Betula platyphlla-marsh ecotone communities in Changbai Mountain].

PubMed

Mu, Changcheng

2003-11-01

The succession of communities within the ecotone between forest and marsh in Changbai Mountain was studied to identify the interrelation between the succession of ecotone communities and the mesophytization of the ecotone. The succession regime of the ecotone communities was studies by patch size (the volume of each mound) and age class of different tree species, water transmission from soil to atmosphere through the transpiration of different tree species, and regional climate warming and community succession. The results demonstrated that both patch size and water loss through transpiration were increased with age class. The increased volume of mounds and water loss through transpiration of trees were converted to the raised ground surface level and the lowered ground surface water level. Within 60 years, the ground surface level would be raised by 0.405-0.590 m, depending on the distance to the marsh, and the aboveground water level would be lowered by 1.050-1.442 m. Climate had a great effect on the community dynamics. Community succession and regional climate warming intensified the mesophytization process of forest-marsh ecotone, and the ecotone communities would eventually change into forest communities within a relatively short period.

Study of Regional Downscaled Climate and Air Quality in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Drake, J.; Lamarque, J.; Lam, Y.; Huang, K.

2011-12-01

Due to the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global and regional climate patterns have significantly changed. Climate change has exerted strong impact on ecosystem, air quality and human life. The global model Community Earth System Model (CESM v1.0) was used to predict future climate and chemistry under projected emission scenarios. Two new emission scenarios, Representative Community Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, were used in this study for climate and chemistry simulations. The projected global mean temperature will increase 1.2 and 1.7 degree Celcius for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050s, respectively. In order to take advantage of local detailed topography, land use data and conduct local climate impact on air quality, we downscaled CESM outputs to 4 km by 4 km Eastern US domain using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ). The evaluations between regional model outputs and global model outputs, regional model outputs and observational data were conducted to verify the downscaled methodology. Future climate change and air quality impact were also examined on a 4 km by 4 km high resolution scale.

Climate Masters of Nebraska: An Action Based Approach to Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umphlett, N.; Bernadt, T.; Pathak, T.

2014-12-01

The Climate Masters of Nebraska pilot program started in 2010 with the goal of assisting the community in becoming more knowledgeable and making informed decisions regarding climate change issues. First, participants engage in a 10-week training course where they learn from experts how to reduce their carbon footprint in everyday life. Participants then volunteer at least 30 hours educating the community through household consultations, outreach events, or other creative efforts they want to take to actively influence the community to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The first two groups of Climate Masters volunteers completed multiple household consultations, started a drip irrigation project, hosted an informational booth at local events, participated in an Adopt a Highway program, formed a Citizens Climate Lobby group, and worked with the City of Lincoln's reEnergize outreach program. All of these projects positively impacted the environment, reduced GHG emissions, or both. The program is continuing for a third year with a new and improved course in the fall. Taking into account suggestions from previous courses, this new course hopes to focus more on the climate issues that are particularly pressing in southeastern Nebraska.

Future Effects of Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Zonal Asymmetries on Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, K.; Solomon, S.; Kinnison, D. E.; Fyfe, J. C.

2017-12-01

Stratospheric zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere have been shown to have significant influences on both stratospheric and tropospheric dynamics and climate. Accurate representation of stratospheric ozone in particular is important for realistic simulation of the polar vortex strength and temperature trends. This is therefore also important for stratospheric ozone change's effect on the troposphere, both through modulation of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and more localized climate. Here, we characterization the impact of future changes in Southern Hemisphere zonal asymmetry on tropospheric climate, including changes to future tropospheric temperature, and precipitation. The separate impacts of increasing GHGs and ozone recovery on the zonal asymmetric influence on the surface are also investigated. For this purpose, we use a variety of models, including Chemistry Climate Model Initiative simulations from the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)) and the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model (ACCESS-CCM). These models have interactive chemistry and can therefore more accurately represent the zonally asymmetric nature of the stratosphere. The CESM1(WACCM) and ACCESS-CCM models are also compared to simulations from the Canadian Can2ESM model and CESM-Large Ensemble Project (LENS) that have prescribed ozone to further investigate the importance of simulating stratospheric zonal asymmetry.

Do Community-based Institutions Build Resilience to Climate Change in Mongolia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gimenez, M.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts are inherently local, yet relatively little is known about the role of local people and institutions in adapting to climate change. Mongolia has experienced one of the strongest warming trends on Earth over the past 40 years, associated declines in streamflow, and increases in the frequency of extreme winter weather events. Environmental changes are compounded by rapid political, economic and social transformations beginning in 1990. We investigate the complex interactions of social, ecological and climate changes across multiple levels from local to regional to national. We hypothesize that community-based institutions increase resilience by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems through development and enforcement of formal management rules, implementation of innovative management practices, strengthening of social networks and information exchange within and across levels of social organization, and enhanced monitoring. These result in better ecological and socio-economic conditions and greater adaptive capacity in areas under formal community-based management compared to adjacent areas without formal community management institutions. Evaluation of this hypothesis involves integrated collection and analysis of quantitative and qualitative ecological, social and hydro-climatic data at household, community and regional levels of spatial and social organization. Here, we present preliminary results evaluating these hypotheses from 10 counties (soum) in 3 provinces (aimag) in the Gobi desert-steppe of southern Mongolia based on household-level social data and plot-level ecological data representing. Our initial findings support the hypothesis that community-based institutions are associated with greater household adaptive capacity and healthier pasture ecological conditions, characterized by greater perennial vegetation cover and biomass, especially in the functional group most important for livestock production, grasses. Our results suggest that even in the Gobi desert-steppe, where inter-annual variations in climate and vegetation production are high, formal community-based management institutions may play an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems.

SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semiannual Progress Report October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2011-04-02

This report summarizes work carried out by the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) from October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011. It discusses ESG-CET highlights for the reporting period, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations, and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project and to find previous reports, please visit the ESG-CET Web sites: http://esg-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ and/or https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/esgcet/Home. This report will be forwarded to managers in the Department of Energy (DOE) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), as well as national and international collaborators andmore » stakeholders (e.g., those involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES); SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science; the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP); the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)), and also to researchers working on a variety of other climate model and observation evaluation activities. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); and Don Middleton, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The ESG-CET team is a group of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include eight laboratories and two universities: ANL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), LLNL, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NCAR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)/NOAA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute (USC/ISI). All ESG-CET work is accomplished under DOE open-source guidelines and in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders, domain researchers, and scientists. Through the ESG project, the ESG-CET team has developed and delivered a production environment for climate data from multiple climate model sources (e.g., CMIP (IPCC), CESM, ocean model data (e.g., Parallel Ocean Program), observation data (e.g., Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Microwave Limb Sounder), and analysis and visualization tools) that serves a worldwide climate research community. Data holdings are distributed across multiple sites including LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, and ORNL as well as unfunded partners sites such as the Australian National University (ANU) National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), and NASA/JPL. As we transition from development activities to production and operations, the ESG-CET team is tasked with making data available to all users who want to understand it, process it, extract value from it, visualize it, and/or communicate it to others. This ongoing effort is extremely large and complex, but it will be incredibly valuable for building 'science gateways' to critical climate resources (such as CESM, CMIP5, ARM, NARCCAP, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), etc.) for processing the next IPCC assessment report. Continued ESG progress will result in a production-scale system that will empower scientists to attempt new and exciting data exchanges, which could ultimately lead to breakthrough climate science discoveries.« less

Modelling the impact of climate change and atmospheric N deposition on French forests biodiversity.

PubMed

Rizzetto, Simon; Belyazid, Salim; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Nicolas, Manuel; Alard, Didier; Corcket, Emmanuel; Gaudio, Noémie; Sverdrup, Harald; Probst, Anne

2016-06-01

A dynamic coupled biogeochemical-ecological model was used to simulate the effects of nitrogen deposition and climate change on plant communities at three forest sites in France. The three sites had different forest covers (sessile oak, Norway spruce and silver fir), three nitrogen loads ranging from relatively low to high, different climatic regions and different soil types. Both the availability of vegetation time series and the environmental niches of the understory species allowed to evaluate the model for predicting the composition of the three plant communities. The calibration of the environmental niches was successful, with a model performance consistently reasonably high throughout the three sites. The model simulations of two climatic and two deposition scenarios showed that climate change may entirely compromise the eventual recovery from eutrophication of the simulated plant communities in response to the reductions in nitrogen deposition. The interplay between climate and deposition was strongly governed by site characteristics and histories in the long term, while forest management remained the main driver of change in the short term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Middleton, Don

2006-08-01

The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects,more » we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.« less

Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.

PubMed

Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E

2007-02-02

Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

Hope, despair and transformation: Climate change and the promotion of mental health and wellbeing

PubMed Central

Fritze, Jessica G; Blashki, Grant A; Burke, Susie; Wiseman, John

2008-01-01

Background This article aims to provide an introduction to emerging evidence and debate about the relationship between climate change and mental health. Discussion and Conclusion The authors argue that: i) the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events will have significant mental health implications; ii) climate change is already impacting on the social, economic and environmental determinants of mental health with the most severe consequences being felt by disadvantaged communities and populations; iii) understanding the full extent of the long term social and environmental challenges posed by climate change has the potential to create emotional distress and anxiety; and iv) understanding the psycho-social implications of climate change is also an important starting point for informed action to prevent dangerous climate change at individual, community and societal levels. PMID:18799005

A Science-Faith Partnership to Provide Education and Facilitate Action on Climate Change and Energy Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervenec, J. M.; Hitzhusen, G.; Ward, S.; Foster, C.

2014-12-01

In 2009, the Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC) and Ohio Interfaith Power and Light (OhIPL) collaborated on a climate change education summit for scientists and clergy. Since that first program, a robust partnership has been nurtured where researchers at the center regularly contribute to events within the faith community. In 2014 alone, BPRC supported OhIPL in hosting a Teach-In event on climate change before a live audience that was simultaneously broadcast to three remote sites across Ohio; a State of the Climate event at the Ohio Statehouse that featured presentations by a scientist, a policymaker, and a member of the faith community; and an Earthkeeping Summit to bring together members of the faith community from across Ohio. OhIPL has helped BPRC fulfill one of our mission objectives of communicating science to a broad community. OhIPL engages houses of worship of all denominations through faith and education with a goal of moving them towards actions that reduce energy consumption. Houses of worship take actions for various reasons - including creation care, concerns of social justice related to climate change, or a desire to save money through building efficiency.

Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker's Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Harrison, Susan; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Species with relatively narrow niches, such as plants restricted (endemic) to particular soils, may be especially vulnerable to extinction under a changing climate due to the enhanced difficulty they face in migrating to suitable new sites. To test for community-level effects of climate change, and to compare such effects in a highly endemic-rich flora on unproductive serpentine soils vs. the flora of normal (diorite) soils, in 2007 we resampled as closely as possible 108 sites originally studied by ecologist Robert H. Whittaker from 1949 to 1951 in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, USA. We found sharp declines in herb cover and richness on both serpentine and diorite soils. Declines were strongest in species of northern biogeographic affinity, species endemic to the region (in serpentine communities only), and species endemic to serpentine soils. Consistent with climatic warming, herb communities have shifted from 1949-1951 to 2007 to more closely resemble communities found on xeric (warm, dry) south-facing slopes. The changes found in the Siskiyou herb flora suggest that biotas rich in narrowly distributed endemics may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a warming climate.

High proportion of smaller ranged hummingbird species coincides with ecological specialization across the Americas

PubMed Central

Martín González, Ana M.; Maruyama, Pietro K.; Sandel, Brody; Vizentin-Bugoni, Jeferson; Schleuning, Matthias; Abrahamczyk, Stefan; Alarcón, Ruben; Araujo, Andréa C.; Araújo, Francielle P.; Mendes de Azevedo, Severino; Baquero, Andrea C.; Cotton, Peter A.; Ingversen, Tanja Toftemark; Kohler, Glauco; Lara, Carlos; Guedes Las-Casas, Flor Maria; Machado, Adriana O.; Machado, Caio Graco; Maglianesi, María Alejandra; Moura, Alan Cerqueira; Nogués-Bravo, David; Oliveira, Genilda M.; Oliveira, Paulo E.; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Rodrigues, Licléia da Cruz; Rosero-Lasprilla, Liliana; Rui, Ana Maria; Sazima, Marlies; Timmermann, Allan; Varassin, Isabela Galarda; Wang, Zhiheng; Watts, Stella; Fjeldså, Jon; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Rahbek, Carsten; Dalsgaard, Bo

2016-01-01

Ecological communities that experience stable climate conditions have been speculated to preserve more specialized interspecific associations and have higher proportions of smaller ranged species (SRS). Thus, areas with disproportionally large numbers of SRS are expected to coincide geographically with a high degree of community-level ecological specialization, but this suggestion remains poorly supported with empirical evidence. Here, we analysed data for hummingbird resource specialization, range size, contemporary climate, and Late Quaternary climate stability for 46 hummingbird–plant mutualistic networks distributed across the Americas, representing 130 hummingbird species (ca 40% of all hummingbird species). We demonstrate a positive relationship between the proportion of SRS of hummingbirds and community-level specialization, i.e. the division of the floral niche among coexisting hummingbird species. This relationship remained strong even when accounting for climate, furthermore, the effect of SRS on specialization was far stronger than the effect of specialization on SRS, suggesting that climate largely influences specialization through species' range-size dynamics. Irrespective of the exact mechanism involved, our results indicate that communities consisting of higher proportions of SRS may be vulnerable to disturbance not only because of their small geographical ranges, but also because of their high degree of specialization. PMID:26842573

Anthropogenic climate change drives shift and shuffle in North Atlantic phytoplankton communities.

PubMed

Barton, Andrew D; Irwin, Andrew J; Finkel, Zoe V; Stock, Charles A

2016-03-15

Anthropogenic climate change has shifted the biogeography and phenology of many terrestrial and marine species. Marine phytoplankton communities appear sensitive to climate change, yet understanding of how individual species may respond to anthropogenic climate change remains limited. Here, using historical environmental and phytoplankton observations, we characterize the realized ecological niches for 87 North Atlantic diatom and dinoflagellate taxa and project changes in species biogeography between mean historical (1951-2000) and future (2051-2100) ocean conditions. We find that the central positions of the core range of 74% of taxa shift poleward at a median rate of 12.9 km per decade (km⋅dec(-1)), and 90% of taxa shift eastward at a median rate of 42.7 km⋅dec(-1) The poleward shift is faster than previously reported for marine taxa, and the predominance of longitudinal shifts is driven by dynamic changes in multiple environmental drivers, rather than a strictly poleward, temperature-driven redistribution of ocean habitats. A century of climate change significantly shuffles community composition by a basin-wide median value of 16%, compared with seasonal variations of 46%. The North Atlantic phytoplankton community appears poised for marked shift and shuffle, which may have broad effects on food webs and biogeochemical cycles.

Climate change; Confronting the global experiment

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

2006-01-01

Earth’s natural climate system is characterized by continually changing climates, with climate regimes that oscillate quasi-cyclically at multiple and nested scales from annual to multi-millennial, and commonly change abruptly. Under naturally changing climates, plant species track changes at all scales in individualistic manner, with plant communities...

The Community Earth System Model-Polar Climate Working Group and the status of CESM2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.; DuVivier, A. K.

2017-12-01

The Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) is a consortium of scientists who are interested in modeling and understanding the climate in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and how polar climate processes interact with and influence climate at lower latitudes. Our members come from universities and laboratories, and our interests span all elements of polar climate, from the ocean depths to the top of the atmosphere. In addition to conducting scientific modeling experiments, we are charged with contributing to the development and maintenance of the state-of-the-art sea ice model component (CICE) used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A recent priority for the PCWG has been to come up with innovative ways to bring the observational and modeling communities together. This will allow for more robust validation of climate model simulations, the development and implementation of more physically-based model parameterizations, improved data assimilation capabilities, and the better use of models to design and implement field experiments. These have been informed by topical workshops and scientific visitors that we have hosted in these areas. These activities will be discussed and information on how the better integration of observations and models has influenced the new version of the CESM, which is due to be released in late 2017, will be provided. Additionally, we will address how enhanced interactions with the observational community will contribute to model developments and validation moving forward.

A systems-based approach to transform climate education in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific islands (USAPI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.; Fletcher, C. H.; Sachs, J. P.

2011-12-01

The USAPI has a population of about 1,800,000 people spread across 4.9 million square miles of the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Islands are characterized by a multitude of indigenous cultures and languages. English is the common language of instruction in all jurisdictions, but is not the language spoken at home for most students outside of Hawai'i. Many USAPI students live considerably below the poverty line. The Pacific Island region is projected to experience some of the most profound negative impacts considerably sooner than other regions. Funded by the National Science Foundation, the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and honor indigenous cultures. Students and citizens within the region will have the knowledge and skills to advance their and our understanding of climate change, and to adapt to its impacts. PCEP has developed a regional network, tools, and an emerging plan to systemically transform K-14 climate education in the USAPI. More than 50 organizations and networks have joined the partnership. These partners include all of the region's state departments of education, major universities, and community colleges, and a wide range of local partners, particularly conservation organizations. One of PCEP's major tools is general, multidisciplinary K-14 climate science education framework that organizes major underlying concepts and skills within appropriate grade-span progressions. This framework is based largely upon prior national science and climate literacy work and the National Research Council's recent document "A Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas." The PCEP climate education framework has an Earth System Science foundation that is directly applicable in all locations, and it also has orientations that are particularly relevant to the USAPI context. PCEP is working with the Micronesia Conservation Trust and The Nature Conservancy to combine the climate education work with local community climate adaptation projects. This work combines the PCEP climate education framework with the Micronesia Challenge community training plans and materials, particularly the Pacific-oriented community booklet "Adapting to a Changing Climate." Combining pre-college education with community climate adaptation has the potential to yield major synergistic benefits for both efforts. Another key PCEP tool is an interactive web-based environment (http://pcep.dsp.wested.org) that interlinks the region's locations, organizations and people with information about climate science and climate impacts. This system enables the region's diverse stakeholders to access and contribute to the same information pool, and to collectively develop, and disseminate our work. This web-based environment can be configured for other climate education projects or regions.

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larson, J. W.; Guo, J.; Lyster, P. M.

1999-01-01

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Resilience vs. decline: Precipitation and atmospheric change drive contrasting responses in invertebrate communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Facey, Sarah L.

Invertebrates form the foundation of terrestrial ecosystems, far outnumbering their vertebrate counterparts in terms of abundance, biomass and diversity. As such, arthropod communities play vitally important roles in ecosystem processes ranging from pollination to soil fertility. Given the importance of invertebrates in ecosystems, predicting their responses - and those of the communities they form - to global change is one of the great challenges facing contemporary ecology. Our climate is changing as a result of the anthropogenic release of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), produced from burning fossil fuels and land use change. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere now exceeds the range the Earth has seen in the last 800,000 years. Through the effect of such gases on radiative forcing, sustained greenhouse gas emissions will continue to drive increases in global average temperatures. Additionally, precipitation patterns are likely to change across the world, with increases in the occurrence of extreme weather events, such as droughts, as well as alterations in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall events. Climate change is already causing measurable changes in the Earth's biotic environment. Past work has been heavily focused on the responses of plants to various climate change parameters, with most studies including invertebrates limited to highly controlled studies of pair-wise interactions between one arthropod species and its host plant. Relatively little work to date, however, has looked at the potential impacts of climatic and atmospheric change for invertebrate communities as a whole. The overarching goal of this project was to help remedy this research gap, specifically by investigating the effects of precipitation and atmospheric change on invertebrate communities in grassland and woodland habitat, respectively. Chapters 2 and 4 synthesised recent work on climate change-driven alterations in precipitation and atmospheric change impacts on invertebrates in grassland and woodland systems, respectively. These chapters both highlighted the need for more community-level studies looking at the effects of global change on invertebrates, coupled with greater geographical representation across ecosystems. Particularly for atmospheric change studies, there has been a strong bias toward Northern Hemisphere plantation systems in previous work. Empirical research chapters 3, 5 and 6 used two state-of-the-art field-scale experimental platforms to address the question of how climatic and atmospheric changes will impact invertebrate communities in two Southern Hemisphere systems. Specifically, chapter 3 investigated how a subtropical grassland invertebrate community will respond to five climate change precipitation scenarios, including alterations in the seasonality, frequency and magnitude of rainfall events. Chapters 5 and 6 determined the effects of elevated concentrations of CO2 gas on the overall invertebrate (chapter 5) and ant community (chapter 6) of a critically endangered Eucalyptus woodland. Taken together, these results present contrasting evidence for invertebrate community-level responses to climatic and atmospheric change. On the one hand, communities may be able to cope with future increases in precipitation variability, suggesting that the ecosystem processes underpinned by invertebrates may remain stable in this system. On the other hand, exposure to levels of CO2 not recently experienced within evolutionary timescales, could result in declines in the abundance of organisms that could play important roles in ecological processes. Avenues for future research are discussed, as well as the limitations and challenges inherent in field-scale, community-level climate change research. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

The effect of consumer pressure and abiotic stress on positive plant interactions are mediated by extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Filazzola, Alessandro; Liczner, Amanda Rae; Westphal, Michael; Lortie, Christopher J

2018-01-01

Environmental extremes resulting from a changing climate can have profound implications for plant interactions in desert communities. Positive interactions can buffer plant communities from abiotic stress and consumer pressure caused by climatic extremes, but limited research has explored this empirically. We tested the hypothesis that the mechanism of shrub facilitation on an annual plant community can change with precipitation extremes in deserts. During years of extreme drought and above-average rainfall in a desert, we measured plant interactions and biomass while manipulating a soil moisture gradient and reducing consumer pressure. Shrubs facilitated the annual plant community at all levels of soil moisture through reductions in microclimatic stress in both years and herbivore protection in the wet year only. Shrub facilitation and the high rainfall year contributed to the dominance of a competitive annual species in the plant community. Precipitation patterns in deserts determine the magnitude and type of facilitation mechanisms. Moreover, shrub facilitation mediates the interspecific competition within the associated annual community between years with different rainfall amounts. Examining multiple drivers during extreme climate events is a challenging area of research, but it is a necessary consideration given forecasts predicting that these events will increase in frequency and magnitude. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Striving to Reduce Vulnerability:Lessons from the Poor Community Livelihoodsin the Jakarta Bay Facing High Risk of Rapid Urbanization and Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidayati, D.; Delinom, R. M.; Abdurachim, A. Y.; Dalimunthe, S.; Haba, J.; Pawitan, H.

2014-12-01

This paper discusses water-food issues in relation to how livelihoods of the poor community in Jakarta Bayarein high risk ofrapid urbanization and climate changes. As a part of the capital city of Indonesia, this area has experienced rapid increase in populationand extensive developments causing significant increase in the built up area. This city is unable to keep with demand on sewers, water and solid waste management, leading to settlement with concentrated slum pockets areas and widespread of flooding. The community is mostly poor people of productive group, live with urban pressure in fragile home and livelihoods.The situation becomes much worse due to the impact of climate change with flooding as the greatest climate and disaster risk. With lack of basic services, coastal water inundation (BanjirRob)commonly occursand floods the community housing areaswithout patternanymore. The community has lack of fresh and clean water sources and facedeconomic problem, particularly significant reduction of fishing activities. Coastal reclamation and water pollution from nearby industries are blamed as the main reason for these problems. Strategies therefore have to be developed, especially increasing community awareness and preparedness, and poverty alleviation, to sustain their livelihoods in this high risk urban area.

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Noninstructional Staff Perceptions of the College Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duggan, Molly H.

2008-01-01

This study explored staff perception of organizational climate, including the impact of gender on staff interactions with faculty and students and staff perceptions of workplace satisfaction within the community college. The overarching research question guiding this study was, What are noninstructional staff perceptions of the community college…

A National Climate Change Adaptation Network for Protecting Water Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, A.; Sauchyn, D.; Byrne, J. M.

2009-12-01

Water security and resource-dependent community-survival are being increasingly challenged as a consequence of climate change, and it is urgent that we plan now for the security of our water supplies which support our lives and livelihoods. However, the range of impacts of climate change on water availability, and the consequent environmental and human adaptations that are required, is so complex and serious that it will take the combined work of natural, health and social scientists working with industries and communities to solve them. Networks are needed that will identify crucial water issues under climate change at a range of scales in order to provide regionally-sensitive, solutions-oriented research and adaptation. We suggest national and supra-national water availability and community sustainability issues must be addressed by multidisciplinary research and adaptation networks. The work must be driven by a bottom-up research paradigm — science in the service of community and governance. We suggest that interdisciplinary teams of researchers, in partnership with community decision makers and local industries, are the best means to develop solutions as communities attempt to address future water demands, protect their homes from infrastructure damage, and meet their food, drinking water, and other essential resource requirements. The intention is to cover: the impact of climate change on Canadian natural resources, both marine and terrestrial; issues of long-term sustainability and resilience in human communities and the environments in which they are embedded; the making and moving of knowledge, be that between members of Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities, researchers of different disciplines, communities, industry, policymakers and the academy and the crucial involvement of the various orders of government in the response to water problems, under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Such an adaptation network must include a national communications strategy that will ensure widespread visibility of the network’s activities and findings and general public awareness-raising regarding water challenges and opportunities, including accessible web infrastructure and printed materials and communication with key organizations.

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) - Enabling Collective Impact on Climate and Energy Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Niepold, F., III

2015-12-01

Numerous climate change education efforts exist that aim to enable citizens and society to make informed decisions addressing environmental and societal issues arising from climate change. To extend the reach and impact of these efforts, it is necessary to coordinate them in order to reach a greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network, as an example of a rudimentary form of such an organization, engages in continuous communication through weekly teleconferences, an active listserv and other activities to share resources, activities, and ideas that is moving the network to develop common understandings that will likely lead to the development of effective collective impact on increasing climate and energy literacy. A Spring 2013 survey of the CLEAN Network provided insight as to how the CLEAN Network was addressing member needs and identified what other support was needed to increase its collective impact. In addition, community discussions identified the components needed for an effective overarching backbone support organization. A Fall 2015 survey of the CLEAN Network and the broader climate change education community is being conducted to examine 1) how the CLEAN Network make up and needs have evolved and how they compare to the broader community, and 2) to gather further input into the shaping of the elements of collective impact on climate and energy literacy. This presentation will describe the results from the 2015 survey and compare them to the 2013 survey and the community discussions. This will include describing the CLEAN Network's evolving professional make up, engagement of its members network activities, the importance of the network to members; how the findings compare with the broader climate change education community, and how the collective impact can be increased.

Place-based Learning About Climate with Elementary GLOBE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Harte, T.; Stanitski, D.; Taylor, J.

2017-12-01

Place-based education - helping students make connections between themselves, their community, and their local environment - is an important tool to help young learners understand their regional climate and start to learn about climate and environmental change. Elementary GLOBE storybooks and learning activities allow opportunities for place-based education instructional strategies about climate. In particular, two modules in the Elementary GLOBE unit - Seasons and Climate - provide opportunities for students to explore their local climate and environment. The storybooks and activities also make connections to other parts of elementary curriculum, such as arts, geography, and math. Over the long term, place-based education can also encourage students to be stewards of their local environment. A strong sense of place may help students to see themselves as stakeholders in their community and its resilience. In places that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate and environmental change and the economic, social, and environmental tradeoffs of community decisions, helping young students developing a sense of place and to see the connection between Earth science, local community, and their lives can have a lasting impact on how a community evolves for decades to come. Elementary GLOBE was designed to help elementary teachers (i.e., grades K-4) integrate Earth system science topics into their curriculum as they teach literacy skills to students. This suite of instructional materials includes seven modules. Each module contains a science-based storybook and learning activities that support the science content addressed in the storybooks. Elementary GLOBE modules feature air quality, climate, clouds, Earth system, seasons, soil, and water. New eBooks allow students to read stories on computers or tablets, with the option of listening to each story with an audio recording. A new Elementary GLOBE Teacher Implementation Guide, published in 2017, provides educators with information and strategies how Elementary GLOBE modules can be effectively applied in classrooms, how Elementary GLOBE modules are aligned with national standards, and how student literacy and science inquiry skills can be strengthened while learning about the Earth system.

Analyzing Tropical Waves Using the Parallel Ensemble Empirical Model Decomposition Method: Preliminary Results from Hurricane Sandy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Cheung, Samson; Li, Jui-Lin F.; Wu, Yu-ling

2013-01-01

In this study, we discuss the performance of the parallel ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EMD) in the analysis of tropical waves that are associated with tropical cyclone (TC) formation. To efficiently analyze high-resolution, global, multiple-dimensional data sets, we first implement multilevel parallelism into the ensemble EMD (EEMD) and obtain a parallel speedup of 720 using 200 eight-core processors. We then apply the parallel EEMD (PEEMD) to extract the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from preselected data sets that represent (1) idealized tropical waves and (2) large-scale environmental flows associated with Hurricane Sandy (2012). Results indicate that the PEEMD is efficient and effective in revealing the major wave characteristics of the data, such as wavelengths and periods, by sifting out the dominant (wave) components. This approach has a potential for hurricane climate study by examining the statistical relationship between tropical waves and TC formation.

How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaugrand, Grégory; Kirby, Richard R.

2018-01-01

In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible—that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.

Seed bank and big sagebrush plant community composition in a range margin for big sagebrush

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martyn, Trace E.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Burke, Ingrid C.; Laurenroth, William K.

2016-01-01

The potential influence of seed bank composition on range shifts of species due to climate change is unclear. Seed banks can provide a means of both species persistence in an area and local range expansion in the case of increasing habitat suitability, as may occur under future climate change. However, a mismatch between the seed bank and the established plant community may represent an obstacle to persistence and expansion. In big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) plant communities in Montana, USA, we compared the seed bank to the established plant community. There was less than a 20% similarity in the relative abundance of species between the established plant community and the seed bank. This difference was primarily driven by an overrepresentation of native annual forbs and an underrepresentation of big sagebrush in the seed bank compared to the established plant community. Even though we expect an increase in habitat suitability for big sagebrush under future climate conditions at our sites, the current mismatch between the plant community and the seed bank could impede big sagebrush range expansion into increasingly suitable habitat in the future.

Tools in Support of Planning for Weather and Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Done, J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Hauser, R.; Holland, G. J.; Tye, M. R.

2016-12-01

A major limitation to planning for weather and climate extremes is the lack of maintained and readily available tools that can provide robust and well-communicated predictions and advice on their impacts. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is facilitating a collaborative international program to develop and support such tools within its Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes aimed at improving community resilience planning and reducing weather and climate impacts. A Global Risk, Resilience and Impacts Toolbox is in development and will provide: A portable web-based interface to process work requests from a variety of users and locations; A sophisticated framework that enables specialized community tools to access a comprehensive database (public and private) of geo-located hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and loss data; A community development toolkit that enables and encourages community tool developments geared towards specific user man­agement and planning needs, and A comprehensive community sup­port facilitated by NCAR utilizing tutorials and a help desk. A number of applications are in development, built off the latest climate science, and in collaboration with private industry and local and state governments. Example applications will be described, including a hurricane damage tool in collaboration with the reinsurance sector, and a weather management tool for the construction industry. These examples will serve as starting points to discuss the broader potential of the toolbox.

Increased precipitation accelerates soil organic matter turnover associated with microbial community composition in topsoil of alpine grassland on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Han, Conghai; Wang, Zongli; Si, Guicai; Lei, Tianzhu; Yuan, Yanli; Zhang, Gengxin

2017-10-01

Large quantities of carbon are stored in alpine grassland of the Tibetan Plateau, which is extremely sensitive to climate change. However, it remains unclear whether soil organic matter (SOM) in different layers responds to climate change analogously, and whether microbial communities play vital roles in SOM turnover of topsoil. In this study we measured and collected SOM turnover by the 14 C method in alpine grassland to test climatic effects on SOM turnover in soil profiles. Edaphic properties and microbial communities in the northwestern Qinghai Lake were investigated to explore microbial influence on SOM turnover. SOM turnover in surface soil (0-10 cm) was more sensitive to precipitation than that in subsurface layers (10-40 cm). Precipitation also imposed stronger effects on the composition of microbial communities in the surface layer than that in deeper soil. At the 5-10 cm depth, the SOM turnover rate was positively associated with the bacteria/fungi biomass ratio and the relative abundance of Acidobacteria, both of which are related to precipitation. Partial correlation analysis suggested that increased precipitation could accelerate the SOM turnover rate in topsoil by structuring soil microbial communities. Conversely, carbon stored in deep soil would be barely affected by climate change. Our results provide valuable insights into the dynamics and storage of SOM in alpine grasslands under future climate scenarios.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Treesearch

Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...

University-Community Engagement: Case Study of University Social Responsibility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chile, Love M.; Black, Xavier M.

2015-01-01

Corporatisation of universities has drawn parallels between contemporary universities and business corporations, and extended analysis of corporate social responsibility to universities. This article reports on a case study of university-community engagement with schools and school communities through youth engagement programmes to enhance…

Exploiting parallels between livestock and wildlife: Predicting the impact of climate change on gastrointestinal nematodes in ruminants

PubMed Central

Rose, Hannah; Hoar, Bryanne; Kutz, Susan J.; Morgan, Eric R.

2014-01-01

Global change, including climate, policy, land use and other associated environmental changes, is likely to have a major impact on parasitic disease in wildlife, altering the spatio-temporal patterns of transmission, with wide-ranging implications for wildlife, domestic animals, humans and ecosystem health. Predicting the potential impact of climate change on parasites infecting wildlife will become increasingly important in the management of species of conservation concern and control of disease at the wildlife–livestock and wildlife–human interface, but is confounded by incomplete knowledge of host–parasite interactions, logistical difficulties, small sample sizes and limited opportunities to manipulate the system. By exploiting parallels between livestock and wildlife, existing theoretical frameworks and research on livestock and their gastrointestinal nematodes can be adapted to wildlife systems. Similarities in the gastrointestinal nematodes and the life-histories of wild and domestic ruminants, coupled with a detailed knowledge of the ecology and life-cycle of the parasites, render the ruminant-GIN host–parasite system particularly amenable to a cross-disciplinary approach. PMID:25197625

Development and study of a parallel algorithm of iteratively forming latent functionally-determined structures for classification and analysis of meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorokin, V. A.; Volkov, Yu V.; Sherstneva, A. I.; Botygin, I. A.

2016-11-01

This paper overviews a method of generating climate regions based on an analytic signal theory. When applied to atmospheric surface layer temperature data sets, the method allows forming climatic structures with the corresponding changes in the temperature to make conclusions on the uniformity of climate in an area and to trace the climate changes in time by analyzing the type group shifts. The algorithm is based on the fact that the frequency spectrum of the thermal oscillation process is narrow-banded and has only one mode for most weather stations. This allows using the analytic signal theory, causality conditions and introducing an oscillation phase. The annual component of the phase, being a linear function, was removed by the least squares method. The remaining phase fluctuations allow consistent studying of their coordinated behavior and timing, using the Pearson correlation coefficient for dependence evaluation. This study includes program experiments to evaluate the calculation efficiency in the phase grouping task. The paper also overviews some single-threaded and multi-threaded computing models. It is shown that the phase grouping algorithm for meteorological data can be parallelized and that a multi-threaded implementation leads to a 25-30% increase in the performance.

Relative importance of local- and large-scale drivers of alpine soil microarthropod communities.

PubMed

Mitchell, Ruth J; Urpeth, Hannah M; Britton, Andrea J; Black, Helaina; Taylor, Astrid R

2016-11-01

Nitrogen (N) deposition and climate are acknowledged drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystem function at large scales. However, at a local scale, their impact on functions and community structure of organisms is filtered by drivers like habitat quality and food quality/availability. This study assesses the relative impact of large-scale factors, N deposition and climate (rainfall and temperature), versus local-scale factors of habitat quality and food quality/availability on soil fauna communities at 15 alpine moss-sedge heaths along an N deposition gradient in the UK. Habitat quality and food quality/availability were the primary drivers of microarthropod communities. No direct impacts of N deposition on the microarthropod community were observed, but induced changes in habitat quality (decline in moss cover and depth) and food quality (decreased vegetation C:N) associated with increased N deposition strongly suggest an indirect impact of N. Habitat quality and climate explained variation in the composition of the Oribatida, Mesostigmata, and Collembola communities, while only habitat quality significantly impacted the Prostigmata. Food quality and prey availability were important in explaining the composition of the oribatid and mesostigmatid mite communities, respectively. This study shows that, in alpine habitats, soil microarthropod community structure responds most strongly to local-scale variation in habitat quality and food availability rather than large-scale variation in climate and pollution. However, given the strong links between N deposition and the key habitat quality parameters, we conclude that N deposition indirectly drives changes in the soil microarthropod community, suggesting a mechanism by which large-scale drivers indirectly impacts these functionally important groups.

The cloud-phase feedback in the Super-parameterized Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, M. A.; Randall, D. A.

2016-12-01

Recent comparisons of observations and climate model simulations by I. Tan and colleagues have suggested that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process tends to be too active in climate models, making too much cloud ice, and resulting in an exaggerated negative cloud-phase feedback on climate change. We explore the WBF process and its effect on shortwave cloud forcing in present-day and future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart. Results show that SP-CESM has much less cloud ice and a weaker cloud-phase feedback than CESM.

Engaging Key Stakeholders in Climate Change: A Community-Based Project for Youth-Led Participatory Climate Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trott, Carlie D.

Few studies have examined how youth think about, and take action on climate change and far fewer have sought to facilitate their engagement using participatory methods. This dissertation evaluated the impacts of Science, Camera, Action! (SCA), a novel after-school program that combined climate change education with participatory action through photovoice. The specific aims of this study were to: (1) Evaluate the impacts of SCA on youth participants' climate change knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors; (2) Examine how SCA participation served to empower youth agency; and (3) Explore SCA's influence on youths' science engagement. Participants were 55 youths (ages 10 to 12) across three Boys and Girls Club sites in Northern Colorado. SCA's Science component used interactive activities to demonstrate the interrelationships between Earth's changing climate, ecosystems, and sustainable actions within communities. Photovoice, SCA's Camera component, was used to explore youths' climate change perspectives and to identify opportunities for their active engagement. Finally, SCA's Action component aimed to cultivate youth potential as agents of change in their families and communities through the development and implementation of youth-led action projects. Action projects included local policy advocacy, a tree-planting campaign, a photo gallery opening, development of a website, and the establishment of a Boys and Girls Club community garden. To evaluate SCA impacts, a combination of survey and focus group methods were used. Following the program, youth demonstrated increased knowledge of the scientific and social dimensions of the causes and consequences of climate change, as well as its solutions through human action. Though participants expressed a mix of positive (e.g., hope) and negative (e.g., sadness) emotions about climate change, they left the program with an increased sense of respect for nature, an enhanced sense of environmental responsibility, and a greater sense of urgency towards the need for climate change action. Further, participants reported increased engagement in personal pro-environmental behaviors, an enhanced sense of agency in the context of climate change, and provided strong evidence of their role as agents of change in family and community contexts. Through SCA, participants gained a deeper appreciation for science (e.g., in school, careers, and society) and reported increased interest, participation, confidence, and performance in school science. Findings contribute to the vast and growing psychology literature on climate change perceptions and action, and from the understudied perspective of youth. Through a combination of innovative methods and interactive projects, the youth in this study gained a number of psychosocial and educational benefits, while tangibly contributing to the sustainable transformation of their families and communities. Findings of this dissertation have implications for educational programs, youth organizing, and interventions aimed to strengthen youths' active engagement with critical social and scientific issues that impact their lives.

Metagenomics-Enabled Understanding of Soil Microbial Feedbacks to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Wu, L.; Zhili, H.; Kostas, K.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Cole, J. R.; Tiedje, J. M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the response of biological communities to climate warming is a central issue in ecology and global change biology, but it is poorly understood microbial communities. To advance system-level predictive understanding of the feedbacks of belowground microbial communities to multiple climate change factors and their impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, we have used integrated metagenomic technologies (e.g., target gene and shotgun metagenome sequencing, GeoChip, and isotope) to analyze soil microbial communities from experimental warming sites in Alaska (AK) and Oklahoma (OK), and long-term laboratory incubation. Rapid feedbacks of microbial communities to warming were observed in the AK site. Consistent with the changes in soil temperature, moisture and ecosystem respiration, microbial functional community structure was shifted after only 1.5-year warming, indicating rapid responses and high sensitivity of this permafrost ecosystem to climate warming. Also, warming stimulated not only functional genes involved in aerobic respiration of both labile and recalcitrant C, contributing to an observed 24% increase in 2010 growing season and 56% increase of decomposition of a standard substrate, but also functional genes for anaerobic processes (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis). Further comparisons by shotgun sequencing showed significant differences of microbial community structure between AK and OK sites. The OK site was enriched in genes annotated for cellulose degradation, CO2 production, denitrification, sporulation, heat shock response, and cellular surface structures (e.g., trans-membrane transporters for glucosides), while the AK warmed plots were enriched in metabolic pathways related to labile C decomposition. Together, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of permafrost ecosystem C to climate warming and the importance of microbial feedbacks in mediating such vulnerability.

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

Climate change has indirect effects on resource use and overlap among coexisting bird species with negative consequences for their reproductive success

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.; Auer, Sonya K.

2013-01-01

Climate change can modify ecological interactions, but whether it can have cascading effects throughout ecological networks of multiple interacting species remains poorly studied. Climate-driven alterations in the intensity of plant–herbivore interactions may have particularly profound effects on the larger community because plants provide habitat for a wide diversity of organisms. Here we show that changes in vegetation over the last 21 years, due to climate effects on plant–herbivore interactions, have consequences for songbird nest site overlap and breeding success. Browsing-induced reductions in the availability of preferred nesting sites for two of three ground nesting songbirds led to increasing overlap in nest site characteristics among all three bird species with increasingly negative consequences for reproductive success over the long term. These results demonstrate that changes in the vegetation community from effects of climate change on plant–herbivore interactions can cause subtle shifts in ecological interactions that have critical demographic ramifications for other species in the larger community.

Improving Climate Change Communication Skills through Community Outreach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanrahan, J.

2015-12-01

While many undergraduate Atmospheric Science departments are expanding their curriculums to focus on the science of climate change, often overlooked is the need to educate students about how this topic can be effectively communicated to others. It has become increasingly difficult for young scientists to comfortably discuss this polarizing topic with people outside of the classroom. To address this, Atmospheric Science faculty at Lyndon State College are providing undergraduate students the opportunity to practice this important skill by reaching out to the local community. Over the past year, students have been meeting regularly to discuss climate change and its impacts, and to present this information to the general public at local schools and organizations. The group was organized with the primary goal of teaching undergraduate students about effective ways to communicate basic climate science to nonscientists, but to also improve public understanding of anthropogenic climate change while starting a conversation among young people in the community. We will identify lessons learned after one year, discuss effective strategies, and summarize student feedback.

The CESM Large Ensemble Project: Inspiring New Ideas and Understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.

2016-12-01

While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920-2100) 40+ times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 2000+-yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as single-variable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Examples of scientists and stakeholders that are using the CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change will be highlighted the presentation.

Application of open source standards and technologies in the http://climate4impact.eu/ portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia

2015-04-01

This presentation will demonstrate how to calculate and visualize the climate indice SU (number of summer days) on the climate4impact portal. The following topics will be covered during the demonstration: - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the Earth System Grid Fedeation (ESGF) data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Processing using Web Processing Services (WPS): Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 ICCLIM. - Visualization using Web Map Services (WMS): Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. The aim of climate4impact is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 21 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the European projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2 for more than 5 years, and its development currently continues within IS-ENES2 and CLIPC. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities and can be visited at http://climate4impact.eu/ The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/ICCLIM on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

Open-Source Development of the Petascale Reactive Flow and Transport Code PFLOTRAN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammond, G. E.; Andre, B.; Bisht, G.; Johnson, T.; Karra, S.; Lichtner, P. C.; Mills, R. T.

2013-12-01

Open-source software development has become increasingly popular in recent years. Open-source encourages collaborative and transparent software development and promotes unlimited free redistribution of source code to the public. Open-source development is good for science as it reveals implementation details that are critical to scientific reproducibility, but generally excluded from journal publications. In addition, research funds that would have been spent on licensing fees can be redirected to code development that benefits more scientists. In 2006, the developers of PFLOTRAN open-sourced their code under the U.S. Department of Energy SciDAC-II program. Since that time, the code has gained popularity among code developers and users from around the world seeking to employ PFLOTRAN to simulate thermal, hydraulic, mechanical and biogeochemical processes in the Earth's surface/subsurface environment. PFLOTRAN is a massively-parallel subsurface reactive multiphase flow and transport simulator designed from the ground up to run efficiently on computing platforms ranging from the laptop to leadership-class supercomputers, all from a single code base. The code employs domain decomposition for parallelism and is founded upon the well-established and open-source parallel PETSc and HDF5 frameworks. PFLOTRAN leverages modern Fortran (i.e. Fortran 2003-2008) in its extensible object-oriented design. The use of this progressive, yet domain-friendly programming language has greatly facilitated collaboration in the code's software development. Over the past year, PFLOTRAN's top-level data structures were refactored as Fortran classes (i.e. extendible derived types) to improve the flexibility of the code, ease the addition of new process models, and enable coupling to external simulators. For instance, PFLOTRAN has been coupled to the parallel electrical resistivity tomography code E4D to enable hydrogeophysical inversion while the same code base can be used as a third-party library to provide hydrologic flow, energy transport, and biogeochemical capability to the community land model, CLM, part of the open-source community earth system model (CESM) for climate. In this presentation, the advantages and disadvantages of open source software development in support of geoscience research at government laboratories, universities, and the private sector are discussed. Since the code is open-source (i.e. it's transparent and readily available to competitors), the PFLOTRAN team's development strategy within a competitive research environment is presented. Finally, the developers discuss their approach to object-oriented programming and the leveraging of modern Fortran in support of collaborative geoscience research as the Fortran standard evolves among compiler vendors.

NASA NDATC Global Climate Change Education Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Wood, E.; Meyer, D.; Maynard, N.; Pandya, R. E.

2009-12-01

This project aligns with NASA’s Strategic Goal 3A - “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs and focuses on funding from the GCCE Funding Category 2: Strengthen the Teaching and Learning About Global Climate Change Within Formal Education Systems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report (2007) those communities with the least amount of resources will be most vulnerable, and least likely to adapt to the impacts brought on by a changing climate. Further, the level of vulnerability of these communities is directly correlated with their ability to implement short, medium and long range mitigation measures. The North Dakota Association of Tribal Colleges (NDATC) has established a climate change education initiative among its six member Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs). The goal of this project is to enhance the TCUs capacity to educate their constituents on the science of climate change and mitigation strategies specifically as they apply to Indian Country. NDATC is comprised of six American Indian tribally chartered colleges (TCUs) which include: Cankdeska Cikana Community College, serving the Spirit Lake Dakota Nation; Fort Berthold Community College, serving the Mandan, Hidatsa, and Arikara Nation; Sitting Bull College, serving the Hunkpapa Lakota and Dakota Nation; Turtle Mountain Community College, serving the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa; Sisseton Wahpeton College serving the Sisseton and Wahpeton Dakota Nation, and United Tribes Technical College, serving over 70 Tribal groups from across the United States. The purpose of this project is to (1) increase awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in Indian Country through education for students, faculty and presidents of the TCUs as well as Tribal leadership; (2) increase the capacity of TCUs to respond to this global threat on behalf of tribal people; (3) develop climate change mitigation strategies relevant to Indian Country in the Northern Plains; (4) strengthen our partnerships in the scientific community in addressing climate change issues that will impact our reservations; and (5) utilize NASA resources and instrumentation through LPDAAC (Landsat TM and ETM +, MODIS, ASTER and other remotely sensed data) to educate our TCU students about appropriate research and modeling applications. Few of the TCU STEM faculty have read and comprehend the “Summaries for Policy Makers” published by the IPCC working groups, the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, or the ACIA report. Many of these same faculty have little or no experience with remote sensing applications. Through this project we will empower our colleges and students to fully understand the threats posed by this important phenomenon. We will provide training for our TCU faculty, who, in turn, will prepare our students with the knowledge to implement the diverse and comprehensive mitigation strategies needed to sustain our resources and tribal communities.

Constructivist Learning Theory and Climate Science Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2012-12-01

Communicating climate science is a form of education. A scientist giving a television interview or testifying before Congress is engaged in an educational activity, though one not identical to teaching graduate students. Knowledge, including knowledge about climate science, should never be communicated as a mere catalogue of facts. Science is a process, a way of regarding the natural world, and a fascinating human activity. A great deal is already known about how to do a better job of science communication, but implementing change is not easy. I am confident that improving climate science communication will involve the paradigm of constructivist learning theory, which traces its roots to the 20th-century Swiss epistemologist Jean Piaget, among others. This theory emphasizes the role of the teacher as supportive facilitator rather than didactic lecturer, "a guide on the side, not a sage on the stage." It also stresses the importance of the teacher making a serious effort to understand and appreciate the prior knowledge and viewpoint of the student, recognizing that students' minds are not empty vessels to be filled or blank slates to be written on. Instead, students come to class with a background of life experiences and a body of existing knowledge, of varying degrees of correctness or accuracy, about almost any topic. Effective communication is also usually a conversation rather than a monologue. We know too that for many audiences, the most trusted messengers are those who share the worldview and cultural values of those with whom they are communicating. Constructivist teaching methods stress making use of the parallels between learning and scientific research, such as the analogies between assessing prior knowledge of the audience and surveying scientific literature for a research project. Meanwhile, a well-funded and effective professional disinformation campaign has been successful in sowing confusion, and as a result, many people mistakenly think climate change science is unreliable or is controversial within the expert community. Thus, an urgent task for climate scientists may be to give the public useful guidelines for recognizing and rejecting junk science and disinformation.

An Examination of Campus Climate for LGBTQ Community College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garvey, Jason C.; Taylor, Jason L.; Rankin, Susan

2015-01-01

This study examines campus climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) undergraduate students at community colleges. Data for the study originates from Rankin, Blumenfeld, Weber, and Frazer's (2010) "State of Higher Education for LGBT People." We analyzed both quantitative data generated from closed-ended…

Local Communities and Schools Tackling Sustainability and Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flowers, Rick; Chodkiewicz, Andrew

2009-01-01

Local communities and their schools remain key sites for actions tackling issues of sustainability and climate change. A government-funded environmental education initiative, the Australian Sustainable Schools Initiative (AuSSI), working together with state based Sustainable Schools Programs (SSP), has the ability to support the development of…

The Social Climate Scales: An Annotated Bibliography. April, 1977.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moos, Rudolf, Comp.; Max, Wendy, Comp.

The Social Climate Scales were designed to assess the dimensions of four types of environments: treatment, total institutions, school, and community settings. This report provides abstracts of recent research projects in which the scales have been used. The projects involved use of the Ward Atmosphere Scale, Community-Oriented Programs Environment…

Climate Change on Twitter: Topics, Communities and Conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 Report

PubMed Central

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report. PMID:24718388

Climate change on Twitter: topics, communities and conversations about the 2013 IPCC Working Group 1 report.

PubMed

Pearce, Warren; Holmberg, Kim; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-01-01

In September 2013 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its Working Group 1 report, the first comprehensive assessment of physical climate science in six years, constituting a critical event in the societal debate about climate change. This paper analyses the nature of this debate in one public forum: Twitter. Using statistical methods, tweets were analyzed to discover the hashtags used when people tweeted about the IPCC report, and how Twitter users formed communities around their conversational connections. In short, the paper presents the topics and tweeters at this particular moment in the climate debate. The most used hashtags related to themes of science, geographical location and social issues connected to climate change. Particularly noteworthy were tweets connected to Australian politics, US politics, geoengineering and fracking. Three communities of Twitter users were identified. Researcher coding of Twitter users showed how these varied according to geographical location and whether users were supportive, unsupportive or neutral in their tweets about the IPCC. Overall, users were most likely to converse with users holding similar views. However, qualitative analysis suggested the emergence of a community of Twitter users, predominantly based in the UK, where greater interaction between contrasting views took place. This analysis also illustrated the presence of a campaign by the non-governmental organization Avaaz, aimed at increasing media coverage of the IPCC report.

EPA’s Environmental Justice Research Roadmap and Interagency Efforts on Climate Justice

EPA Science Inventory

Stressors associated with climate change are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities. This webinar will present activities of the Climate Impacts subcommittee of the Federal Interagency Working Group (IWG) on Stressors associated with climate chang...

Recent warming leads to a rapid borealization of fish communities in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fossheim, Maria; Primicerio, Raul; Johannesen, Edda; Ingvaldsen, Randi B.; Aschan, Michaela M.; Dolgov, Andrey V.

2015-07-01

Arctic marine ecosystems are warming twice as fast as the global average. As a consequence of warming, many incoming species experience increasing abundances and expanding distribution ranges in the Arctic. The Arctic is expected to have the largest species turnover with regard to invading and locally extinct species, with a modelled invasion intensity of five times the global average. Studies in this region might therefore give valuable insights into community-wide shifts of species driven by climate warming. We found that the recent warming in the Barents Sea has led to a change in spatial distribution of fish communities, with boreal communities expanding northwards at a pace reflecting the local climate velocities. Increased abundance and distribution areas of large, migratory fish predators explain the observed community-wide distributional shifts. These shifts change the ecological interactions experienced by Arctic fish species. The Arctic shelf fish community retracted northwards to deeper areas bordering the deep polar basin. Depth might limit further retraction of some of the fish species in the Arctic shelf community. We conclude that climate warming is inducing structural change over large spatial scales at high latitudes, leading to a borealization of fish communities in the Arctic.

GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

2011-12-01

GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M; Diez, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan M

2015-09-24

Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.

Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M; Chalmandrier, Loïc; Lenoir, Jonathan; Burgess, Treena I; Essl, Franz; Haider, Sylvia; Kueffer, Christoph; McDougall, Keith; Milbau, Ann; Nuñez, Martin A; Pauchard, Aníbal; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rew, Lisa J; Sanders, Nathan J; Pellissier, Loïc

2018-02-01

Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.

Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude thatmore » a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.« less

Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

DOE PAGES

Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; ...

2016-11-23

Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude thatmore » a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.« less

Developing a Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index for Urban Areas: A Case Study of East Tennessee

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Carvalhaes, Thomaz M.

Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act asmore » an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.« less

Planning Framework for a Climate-Resilient Economy

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This framework can help communities assess their economic vulnerability to climate change and identify ways to build economic resilience and take advantage of opportunities that might arise as the climate changes.

The response of arid soil communities to climate change: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steven, Blaire; McHugh, Theresa Ann; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems cover approximately 40% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and are present on each of the planet’s continents [1]. Drylands are characterized by their aridity, but there is substantial geographic, edaphic, and climatic variability among these vast ecosystems, and these differences underscore substantial variation in dryland soil microbial communities, as well as in the future climates predicted among arid and semiarid systems globally. Furthermore, arid ecosystems are commonly patchy at a variety of spatial scales [2,3]. Vascular plants are widely interspersed in drylands and bare soil, or soil that is covered with biological soil crusts, fill these spaces. The variability acts to further enhance spatial heterogeneity, as these different zones within dryland ecosystems differ in characteristics such as water retention, albedo, and nutrient cycling [4–6]. Importantly, the various soil patches of an arid landscape may be differentially sensitive to climate change. Soil communities are only active when enough moisture is available, and drylands show large spatial variability in soil moisture, with potentially long dry periods followed by pulses of moisture. The pulse dynamics associated with this wetting and drying affect the composition, structure, and function of dryland soil communities, and integrate biotic and abiotic processes via pulse-driven exchanges, interactions, transitions, and transfers. Climate change will likely alter the size, frequency, and intensity of future precipitation pulses, as well as influence non-rainfall sources of soil moisture, and aridland ecosystems are known to be highly sensitive to such climate variability. Despite great heterogeneity, arid ecosystems are united by a key parameter: a limitation in water availability. This characteristic may help to uncover unifying aspects of dryland soil responses to global change. The dryness of an ecosystem can be described by its aridity index (AI). Several AIs have been proposed, but the most widely used metrics determine the difference between average precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, where evapotranspiration is the sum of evaporation and plant transpiration, both of which move water from the ecosystem to the atmosphere [7–9]. Because evapotranspiration can be affected by various environmental factors such as temperature and incident radiation (Fig. 10.1), regions that receive the same average precipitation may have significantly different AI values [10,11]. Multiple studies have documented that mean annual precipitation, and thus AI, is highly correlated with biological diversity and net primary productivity [12–15]. Accordingly, AI is considered to be a central regulator of the diversity, structure, and productivity of an ecosystem, playing an especially influential role in arid ecosystems. Thus, the climate parameters that drive alterations in the AI of a region are likely to play an disproportionate role in shaping the response of arid soil communities to a changing climate. In this chapter we consider climate parameters that have been shown to be altered through climate change, with a focus on how these parameters are likely to affect dryland soil communities, including microorganisms and invertebrates. In particular, our goal is to highlight dryland soil community structure and function in the context of climate change, and we will focus on community relationships with increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (a primary driver of climate change), temperature, and sources of soil moisture.

Approaches to local climate action in Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. D.

2011-12-01

Though climate change is a global problem, the impacts are felt on the local scale; it follows that the solutions must come at the local level. Fortunately, many cities and municipalities are implementing climate mitigation (or climate action) policies and programs. However, they face many procedural and institutional barriers to their efforts, such of lack of expertise or data, limited human and financial resources, and lack of community engagement (Krause 2011). To address the first obstacle, thirteen in-depth case studies were done of successful model practices ("best practices") of climate action programs carried out by various cities, counties, and organizations in Colorado, and one outside Colorado, and developed into "how-to guides" for other municipalities to use. Research was conducted by reading documents (e.g. annual reports, community guides, city websites), email correspondence with program managers and city officials, and via phone interviews. The information gathered was then compiled into a series of reports containing a narrative description of the initiative; an overview of the plan elements (target audience and goals); implementation strategies and any indicators of success to date (e.g. GHG emissions reductions, cost savings); and the adoption or approval process, as well as community engagement efforts and marketing or messaging strategies. The types of programs covered were energy action plans, energy efficiency programs, renewable energy programs, and transportation and land use programs. Between the thirteen case studies, there was a range of approaches to implementing local climate action programs, examined along two dimensions: focus on climate change (whether it was direct/explicit or indirect/implicit) and extent of government authority. This benchmarking exercise affirmed the conventional wisdom propounded by Pitt (2010), that peer pressure (that is, the presence of neighboring jurisdictions with climate initiatives), the level of community engagement and enthusiasm, and most importantly staff members dedicated to the area of climate planning have a significant effect on climate mitigation policy adoption. In addition, it supported the claim asserted by Toly (2008) that an emphasis on economic co-benefits perpetuates the principle that economic growth need not be compromised when addressing climate change and weakens our capacity to shift toward a bolder paradigm in what is politically achievable in climate legislation.

Climate Generation: Advancing Climate Action through Education, Public Engagement and Youth Leadership

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poppleton, K. L. I.

2017-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy empowers youth, educators, decision-makers and the public to foster climate literacy and action with the goal of building a more equitable and resilient future. We have over eleven years of experience delivering high-quality K-12 education, public engagement and youth leadership programming, reaching over 75,000 people, 35,000 students and 17,000 educators since 2006. By engaging educators, youth, and the public, we believe that communities can be better positioned to build a resilient and equitable future. For this reason we strive to engage with all these sectors through innovative programming and policy initiatives. Communities are resilient when individuals are connected to each other, resources, and decision-makers. Sharing personal narratives, and highlighting locally relevant solutions are all tools that Climate Generation employs to engage the public. We do this through community wide convenings, as well as sector specific events including at breweries, art fairs, and businesses. Education is also an integral piece for sustained action on climate change. We support educators with a science-based, interdisciplinary model of climate change education that engages all learners, and fosters climate literacy and action. We develop curriculum and offer professional development, encouraging teachers to develop today's students into action-competent citizens. Finally, Climate Generation recognizes the importance of empowering high school youth as a key strategy in transitioning to a just and sustainable future for all. We believe in the inherent genius of youth and know from experience that mentorship fosters powerful youth leadership at the community level, inspiring peers, family members, and local decision-makers to take critical action on climate change solutions. In order to accelerate and implement action on climate change we must take a multi-faceted approach: we are building public will for strong climate action at the local and state level; preparing educators and their students to understand the problem and implement clean energy solutions; and pushing our decision-makers to do the right thing via pressure from their constituents, including youth, who can effectively articulate equitable policy solutions and hold officials accountable.

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to include climate change education as part of a larger ecological exploration, giving students and teachers local context to this global issue and memorable outdoor hands-on experiences and student driven adaptation projects.

Storytelling and Technology Combine to Create Student Engagement Around Locally Relevant Climate Change Topics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckey, E.; Littrell-Baez, M.; Tayne, K.; Gold, A. U.; Okochi, C.; Oonk, D.; Smith, L. K.; Lynds, S. E.

2017-12-01

Storytelling is a powerful way for students to engage with science topics, particularly topics that may initially seem too broad to impact their lives, like climate change. Empowering students to telling a personal story about climate change's effects and helping them turn their story into a film is powerful approach. Especially because these films can be shared globally and gives students a voice around a complex topic like climate change. Here, we present impacts of the Lens on Climate Change program (LOCC), which engages middle and high school students in producing short films featuring how climate change impacts their communities. LOCC is offered as an intensive week-long summer program and as an extracurricular program during the school year. The majority of student participants are recruited from historically underserved communities and come from ethnical and socioeconomically diverse backgrounds. Survey data revealed that LOCC participants had a significant increase in their belief in the reality of climate change after participation in their program relative to students in a demographically-matched control groups. Furthermore, participant responses on reflection surveys given after the program included statements that suggest that students had begun thinking more deeply about climate change as a serious global challenge and felt empowered to take actions to mitigate climate change and/or spread awareness in their communities. The majority of students in the LOCC program also reported being very proud of their film and intended to share their film with their friends and family. Additionally, we explored the long-term impacts of participation by interviewing students a year after the program and offered them the opportunity to make a subsequent film. Students in this "advanced group" reported being more aware of climate change in their community following making their films and were enthusiastic to increase their filmmaking skills through producing additional films. We suggest that the combination of storytelling and filmmaking gives students a means to become part of the climate change narrative and to engage in thinking about and acting on climate change at a broader level than they might otherwise be comfortable doing.

Using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs and Support Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.; Petersen, A.; Shafer, M.; MacClune, K.; Hayhoe, K.; Riley, R.; Nasser, E.; Kos, L.; Allan, C.; Stults, M.; LeRoy, S. R.

2016-12-01

Many communities in the United States are already vulnerable to extreme events; many of these vulnerabilities are likely to increase with climate change. In order to promote the development of effective community responses to climate change, we tested a participatory process for developing usable climate science, in which our project team worked with decision-makers to identify extreme event parameters and critical thresholds associated with policy development and adaptation actions. Our hypothesis is that conveying climate science and data through user-defined parameters and thresholds will help develop capacity to streamline the use of climate projections in developing strategies and actions, and motivate participation by a variety of preparedness planners. Our team collaborated with urban decision-makers, in departments that included resilience, planning, public works, public health, emergency management, and others, in four cities in the semi-arid south-central plains and intermountain areas of Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Through an iterative process, we homed in on both simple and hybrid indicators for which we could develop credible city-specific projections, to stimulate discussion about adaptation actions; throughout the process, we communicated information about confidence and uncertainty, in order to develop a blend of historic and projected climate data, as appropriate, depending on levels of uncertainty. Our collaborations have resulted in (a) the identification of more than 50 unique indicators and thresholds across the four communities, (b) the development of adaptation action strategies in each community, and (c) the implementation of actions, ranging from a climate leadership training program for city staff members, to a rainwater capture project to improve responses to expected increases in both stormwater runoff and water capture for drought episodes.

Perception, experience, and indigenous knowledge of climate change and variability: the case of Accra, a sub-Saharan African city

USGS Publications Warehouse

Codjoe, Samuel N.A.; Owusu, George; Burkett, Virginia

2014-01-01

Several recent international assessments have concluded that climate change has the potential to reverse the modest economic gains achieved in many developing countries over the past decade. The phenomenon of climate change threatens to worsen poverty or burden populations with additional hardships, especially in poor societies with weak infrastructure and economic well-being. The importance of the perceptions, experiences, and knowledge of indigenous peoples has gained prominence in discussions of climate change and adaptation in developing countries and among international development organizations. Efforts to evaluate the role of indigenous knowledge in adaptation planning, however, have largely focused on rural people and their agricultural livelihoods. This paper presents the results of a study that examines perceptions, experiences, and indigenous knowledge relating to climate change and variability in three communities of metropolitan Accra, which is the capital of Ghana. The study design is based on a three-part conceptual framework and interview process involving risk mapping, mental models, and individual stressor cognition. Most of the residents interviewed in the three communities of urban Accra attributed climate change to the combination of deforestation and the burning of firewood and rubbish. None of the residents associated climate change with fossil fuel emissions from developed countries. Numerous potential adaptation strategies were suggested by the residents, many of which have been used effectively during past drought and flood events. Results suggest that ethnic residential clustering as well as strong community bonds in metropolitan Accra have allowed various groups and long-settled communities to engage in the sharing and transmission of knowledge of weather patterns and trends. Understanding and building upon indigenous knowledge may enhance the design, acceptance, and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies in Accra and urban regions of other developing nations.

ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei

2018-06-01

The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.

Assessing the continuum of applications and societal benefits of US CLIVAR science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

The new US CLIVAR strategic plan seeks to address the challenges of communicating the climate knowledge generated through its activities and to collaborate with the research and operational communities that may use this knowledge for managing climate risks. This presentation provides results of an overview in progress of the continuum of potential applications of climate science organized and coordinated through US CLIVAR. We define applications more broadly than simply ready for operations or direct use, and find that there are several stages in a continuum of readiness for communication and collaboration with communities that use climate information. These stages include: 1) advancing scientific understanding to a readiness for the next research steps aimed at predictable signals; 2) application of understanding climate phenomena in collaboration with a boundary organization, such as NOAA RISAs DOI Climate Science Centers, and USDA Climate Hubs, to understand how predictable signals may be translated into useable products; 3) use of knowledge in risk framing for a decision process, or in a science synthesis, such as the National Climate Assessment, and 4) transitioning new science knowledge into operational products (e.g. R2O), such as intraseasonal climate prediction. In addition, US CLIVAR has sponsored efforts to build science-to-decisions capacity, e.g., the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) program, in its 7th cohort, which has embedded climate experts into decision-making institutions. We will spotlight accomplishments of US CLIVAR science that are ripe for application in communities that are managing climate risks -- such as drought outlooks, MJO forecasting, extremes, and ocean conditions -- for agricultural production, water use, and marine ecosystems. We will use these examples to demonstrate the usefulness of an "applications continuum framework" identifying pathways from research to applications.

Climate Change Education: Goals, Audiences, and Strategies--A Workshop Summary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forest, Sherrie; Feder, Michael A.

2011-01-01

The global scientific and policy community now unequivocally accepts that human activities cause global climate change. Although information on climate change is readily available, the nation still seems unprepared or unwilling to respond effectively to climate change, due partly to a general lack of public understanding of climate change issues…

Policy-based Distributed Data Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, R. W.

2009-12-01

The analysis and understanding of climate variability and change builds upon access to massive collections of observational and simulation data. The analyses involve distributed computing, both at the storage systems (which support data subsetting) and at compute engines (for assimilation of observational data into simulations). The integrated Rule Oriented Data System (iRODS) organizes the distributed data into collections to facilitate enforcement of management policies, support remote data processing, and enable development of reference collections. Currently at RENCI, the iRODS data grid is being used to manage ortho-photos and lidar data for the State of North Carolina, provide a unifying storage environment for engagement centers across the state, support distributed access to visualizations of weather data, and is being explored to manage and disseminate collections of ensembles of meteorological and hydrological model results. In collaboration with the National Climatic Data Center, an iRODS data grid is being established to support data transmission from NCDC to ORNL, and to integrate NCDC archives with ORNL compute services. To manage the massive data transfers, parallel I/O streams are used between High Performance Storage System tape archives and the supercomputers at ORNL. Further, we are exploring the movement and management of large RADAR and in situ datasets to be used for data mining between RENCI and NCDC, and for the distributed creation of decision support and climate analysis tools. The iRODS data grid supports all phases of the scientific data life cycle, from management of data products for a project, to sharing of data between research institutions, to publication of data in a digital library, to preservation of data for use in future research projects. Each phase is characterized by a broader user community, with higher expectations for more detailed descriptions and analysis mechanisms for manipulating the data. The higher usage requirements are enforced by management policies that define the required metadata, the required data formats, and the required analysis tools. The iRODS policy based data management system automates the creation of the community chosen data products, validates integrity and authenticity assessment criteria, and enforces management policies across all accesses of the system.

Final Technical Report to DOE for the Award DE-SC0004601

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Jizhong

Understanding the responses, adaptations and feedback mechanisms of biological communities to climate change is critical to project future state of earth and climate systems. Although significant amount of knowledge is available on the feedback responses of aboveground communities to climate change, little is known about the responses of belowground microbial communities due to the challenges in analyzing soil microbial community structure. Thus the goal overall goal of this study is to provide system-level, predictive mechanistic understanding of the temperature sensitivity of soil carbon (C) decomposition to climate warming by using cutting-edge integrated metagenomic technologies. Towards this goal, the following fourmore » objectives will be pursued: (i) To determine phylogenetic composition and metabolic diversity of microbial communities in the temperate grassland and tundra ecosystems; (ii) To delineate the responses of microbial community structure, functions and activities to climate change in the temperate grassland and tundra ecosystems; (iii) To determine the temperature sensitivity of microbial respiration in soils with different mixtures of labile versus recalcitrant C, and the underlying microbiological basis for temperature sensitivity of these pools; and (iv) To synthesize all experimental data for revealing microbial control of ecosystem carbon processes in responses to climate change. We have achieved our goals for all four proposed objectives. First, we determined the phylogenetic composition and metabolic diversity of microbial communities in the temperate grassland and tundra ecosystems. For this objective, we have developed a novel phasing amplicon sequencing (PAS) approach for MiSeq sequencing of amplicons. This approach has been used for sequencing various phylogenetic and functional genes related to ecosystem functioning. A comprehensive functional gene array (e.g., GeoChip 5.0) has also been developed and used for soil microbial community analysis in this study. In addition, shot-gun metagenome sequencing along with the above approaches have been used to understand the phylogenetic and functional diversity, composition, and structure of soil microbial communities in both temperature grassland and tundra ecosystems. Second, we determined the response of soil microbial communities to climate warming in both temperate grassland and tundra ecosystems using various methods. Our major findings are: (i) Microorganisms are very rapid to respond to climate warming in the tundra ecosystem, AK, which is vulnerable, too. (ii) Climate warming also significantly shifted the metabolic diversity, composition and structure of microbial communities, and key metabolic pathways related to carbon turnover, such as cellulose degradation (~13%) and CO2 production (~10%), and to nitrogen cycling, including denitrification (~12%) were enriched by warming. (iii) Warming also altered the expression patterns of microbial functional genes important to ecosystem functioning and stability through GeoChip and metatranscriptomic analysis of soil microbial communities at the OK site. Third, we analyzed temperature sensitivity of C decomposition to climate warming for both AK and OK soils through laboratory incubations. Key results include: (i) Alaska tundra soils showed that after one year of incubation, CT in the top 15 cm could be as high as 25% and 15% of the initial soil C content at 25°C and 15°C incubations, respectively. (ii) analysis of 456 incubated soil samples with 16S rRNA gene, ITS and GeoChip hybridization showed that warming shifted the phylogenretic and functional diversity, composition, structure and metabolic potential of soil microbial communities, and at different stages of incubation, key populations and functional genes significantly changed along with soil substrate changes. Functional gene diversity and functional genes for degrading labile C components decrease along incubation when labile C components are exhausting, but the genes related to degrading recalcitrant C increase. These molecular data will be directly used for modeling. Fourth, we have developed novel approaches to integrate and model experimental data to understand microbial control of ecosystem C processes in response to climate change. We compared different methods to calculate Q10 for estimating temperature sensitivity, and new approaches for Q10 calculation and molecular ecological network analysis were also developed. Using those newly developed approaches, our result indicated that Q10s increased with the recalcitrance of C pools, suggesting that longer incubation studies are needed in order to assess the temperature sensitivity of slower C pools, especially at low temperature regimes. This project has been very productive, resulting in 42 papers published or in press, 4 submitted, and 13 in preparation.« less

Chattanooga State Technical Community College Marketing Plan 1981-82.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoppe, Sherry; Haddock, David

Chattanooga State Technical Community College's (CSTCC's) marketing plan is presented in six parallel sections. The first of these deals with building the overall image of the college, increasing community awareness, and disseminating general information. The other five sections focus on marketing the following college programs and services:…

Cultural Narratives: Developing a Three-Dimensional Learning Community through Braided Understanding

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heck, Marsha L.

2004-01-01

Paula Underwood's "Learning Stories" braid together body, mind, and spirit to enable understanding that does not easily unravel. They tell of relationships among individual and community learning that parallel other ancient and contemporary ideas about learning in caring communities. Underwood's tradition considers learning sacred; everyone's…

Coupling of Noah-MP and the High Resolution CI-WATER ADHydro Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno, H. A.; Goncalves Pureza, L.; Ogden, F. L.; Steinke, R. C.

2014-12-01

ADHydro is a physics-based, high-resolution, distributed hydrological model suitable for simulating large watersheds in a massively parallel computing environment. It simulates important processes such as: rainfall and infiltration, snowfall and snowmelt in complex terrain, vegetation and evapotranspiration, soil heat flux and freezing, overland flow, channel flow, groundwater flow and water management. For the vegetation and evapotranspiration processes, ADHydro uses the validated community land surface model (LSM) Noah-MP. Noah-MP uses multiple options for key land-surface hydrology and was developed to facilitate climate predictions with physically based ensembles. This presentation discusses the lessons learned in coupling Noah-MP to ADHydro. Noah-MP is delivered with a main driver program and not as a library with a clear interface to be called from other codes. This required some investigation to determine the correct functions to call and the appropriate parameter values. ADHydro runs Noah-MP as a point process on each mesh element and provides initialization and forcing data for each element. Modeling data are acquired from various sources including the Soil Survey Geographic Database (SSURGO), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and internal ADHydro simulation states. Despite these challenges in coupling Noah-MP to ADHydro, the use of Noah-MP provides the benefits of a supported community code.

Meeting the Regional Climate Information Needs of Decision Makers: The CORDEX Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G. R.; Jones, C.; Giorgi, F.

2011-12-01

Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD), both dynamical (e.g. regional climate modeling) and statistical, is an important approach to produce fine scale climate information for use in impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation studies and practices. RCD techniques have evolved significantly over the last decade, however a coherent and wide picture of regional climate change based on RCD products is still not available and the potentials, limitations and uncertainties of RCD methods need to be better understood by the user community. In order to address these issues a new initiative has been launched under the WCRP auspices, referred to as Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment, or CORDEX. The aim of CORDEX is to bring together the international RCD community to assess different RCD techniques, recommend best practices and produce a next generation set of RCD-based projections of climate change for regions world-wide. This will involve close interactions between the RCD, global climate modeling, and end users communities. This paper will describe the motivations and design of the first phase of the CORDEX framework, which has a priority focus on Africa, along with the steps that are envisioned to achieve the CORDEX goals within the time framework of the Fifth IPCC assessment report. Some early results for Africa will be presented, together with a short summary of the CORDEX activities in Asia, Americas and other regions of the world.

Change We Can Fight Over: The Relationship between Arable Land Supply and Substate Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

environmental impact of global warming has spurred a parallel discussion among national security academics and policymakers about the security...consequences of climate change. Roughly speaking, there are two camps in this discussion -one that ominously predicts the potential for global warming to spark...future climate change, but the stark reality is that global warming is already upon us. Thus, policymakers need to know -both now and in the coming

Engagement Between Decision Makers and the Research Community in Califonria'a Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedsworth, L. W.; Franco, G.; Wilhelm, S.; DeLaRosa, J.

2016-12-01

The State of California has been supporting the development of regional climate change science for more than two decades. The engagement between the scientific community in California and State agencies has been strong, and supported by multiple formalized relationships. For example, research results have informed state climate policy formulation such as the passage of AB32, a law that requires the State to bring GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and three Bills on climate adaptation that became law late in 2015. Scientific research has also been used for long-term planning of state resources such as the Forestry Plan, the Water Plan, and the Integrated Energy Policy Report. The Climate Action Team Research Working Group meets monthly to coordinate climate-related research activities supported by more than 20 state agencies and is the steering committee for the next California Climate Assessment that will be released in 2018. The State is co-producing the research commissioned for the 2018 Assessment in various ways, including the identification of research projects, the integration of more than 50 research studies, and active participation during execution of the research. The presentation will discuss the State's successes in linking decision-makers and the scientific community as well as challenges and potential ways to enhance these linkages.

Ecological strategies in california chaparral: Interacting effects of soils, climate, and fire on specific leaf area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anacker, Brian; Rajakaruna, Nishanta; Ackerly, David; Harrison, Susan; Keeley, Jon E.; Vasey, Michael

2011-01-01

Background: High values of specific leaf area (SLA) are generally associated with high maximal growth rates in resource-rich conditions, such as mesic climates and fertile soils. However, fire may complicate this relationship since its frequency varies with both climate and soil fertility, and fire frequency selects for regeneration strategies (resprouting versus seeding) that are not independent of resource-acquisition strategies. Shared ancestry is also expected to affect the distribution of resource-use and regeneration traits.Aims: We examined climate, soil, and fire as drivers of community-level variation in a key functional trait, SLA, in chaparral in California.Methods: We quantified the phylogenetic, functional, and environmental non-independence of key traits for 87 species in 115 plots.Results: Among species, SLA was higher in resprouters than seeders, although not after phylogeny correction. Among communities, mean SLA was lower in harsh interior climates, but in these climates it was higher on more fertile soils and on more recently burned sites; in mesic coastal climates, mean SLA was uniformly high despite variation in soil fertility and fire history.Conclusions: We conclude that because important correlations exist among both species traits and environmental filters, interpreting the functional and phylogenetic structure of communities may require an understanding of complex interactive effects.