Top-of-Climb Matching Method for Reducing Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Errors

PubMed Central

Thipphavong, David P.

2017-01-01

The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models utilized by trajectory predictors with regard to takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors during the climb phase that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 feet. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved for climbing flights if just one additional parameter is made available: top-of-climb (TOC) time. The TOC-matching method developed and evaluated in this paper is straightforward: a set of candidate trajectory predictions is generated using different aircraft weight parameters, and the one that most closely matches TOC in terms of time is selected. This algorithm was tested using more than 1000 climbing flights in Fort Worth Center. Compared to the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype (Center/TRACON Automation System), the TOC-matching method reduced the altitude root mean square error (RMSE) for a 5-minute prediction time by 38%. It also decreased the percentage of flights with absolute altitude error greater than the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft for the same look-ahead time from 55% to 30%. PMID:28684883

Top-of-Climb Matching Method for Reducing Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thipphavong, David P.

2016-01-01

The inaccuracies of the aircraft performance models utilized by trajectory predictors with regard to takeoff weight, thrust, climb profile, and other parameters result in altitude errors during the climb phase that often exceed the vertical separation standard of 1000 feet. This study investigates the potential reduction in altitude trajectory prediction errors that could be achieved for climbing flights if just one additional parameter is made available: top-of-climb (TOC) time. The TOC-matching method developed and evaluated in this paper is straightforward: a set of candidate trajectory predictions is generated using different aircraft weight parameters, and the one that most closely matches TOC in terms of time is selected. This algorithm was tested using more than 1000 climbing flights in Fort Worth Center. Compared to the baseline trajectory predictions of a real-time research prototype (Center/TRACON Automation System), the TOC-matching method reduced the altitude root mean square error (RMSE) for a 5-minute prediction time by 38%. It also decreased the percentage of flights with absolute altitude error greater than the vertical separation standard of 1000 ft for the same look-ahead time from 55% to 30%.

Sensitivity of the model error parameter specification in weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Jeremy A.; Daescu, Dacian N.

2017-08-01

This article presents the mathematical framework to evaluate the sensitivity of a forecast error aspect to the input parameters of a weak-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimilation system (w4D-Var DAS), extending the established theory from strong-constraint 4D-Var. Emphasis is placed on the derivation of the equations for evaluating the forecast sensitivity to parameters in the DAS representation of the model error statistics, including bias, standard deviation, and correlation structure. A novel adjoint-based procedure for adaptive tuning of the specified model error covariance matrix is introduced. Results from numerical convergence tests establish the validity of the model error sensitivity equations. Preliminary experiments providing a proof-of-concept are performed using the Lorenz multi-scale model to illustrate the theoretical concepts and potential benefits for practical applications.

A Comparison of Kernel Equating and Traditional Equipercentile Equating Methods and the Parametric Bootstrap Methods for Estimating Standard Errors in Equipercentile Equating

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Sae Il

2009-01-01

This study used simulation (a) to compare the kernel equating method to traditional equipercentile equating methods under the equivalent-groups (EG) design and the nonequivalent-groups with anchor test (NEAT) design and (b) to apply the parametric bootstrap method for estimating standard errors of equating. A two-parameter logistic item response…

Accuracy in planar cutting of bones: an ISO-based evaluation.

PubMed

Cartiaux, Olivier; Paul, Laurent; Docquier, Pierre-Louis; Francq, Bernard G; Raucent, Benoît; Dombre, Etienne; Banse, Xavier

2009-03-01

Computer- and robot-assisted technologies are capable of improving the accuracy of planar cutting in orthopaedic surgery. This study is a first step toward formulating and validating a new evaluation methodology for planar bone cutting, based on the standards from the International Organization for Standardization. Our experimental test bed consisted of a purely geometrical model of the cutting process around a simulated bone. Cuts were performed at three levels of surgical assistance: unassisted, computer-assisted and robot-assisted. We measured three parameters of the standard ISO1101:2004: flatness, parallelism and location of the cut plane. The location was the most relevant parameter for assessing cutting errors. The three levels of assistance were easily distinguished using the location parameter. Our ISO methodology employs the location to obtain all information about translational and rotational cutting errors. Location may be used on any osseous structure to compare the performance of existing assistance technologies.

Comparison of optimal design methods in inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, H. T.; Holm, K.; Kappel, F.

2011-07-01

Typical optimal design methods for inverse or parameter estimation problems are designed to choose optimal sampling distributions through minimization of a specific cost function related to the resulting error in parameter estimates. It is hoped that the inverse problem will produce parameter estimates with increased accuracy using data collected according to the optimal sampling distribution. Here we formulate the classical optimal design problem in the context of general optimization problems over distributions of sampling times. We present a new Prohorov metric-based theoretical framework that permits one to treat succinctly and rigorously any optimal design criteria based on the Fisher information matrix. A fundamental approximation theory is also included in this framework. A new optimal design, SE-optimal design (standard error optimal design), is then introduced in the context of this framework. We compare this new design criterion with the more traditional D-optimal and E-optimal designs. The optimal sampling distributions from each design are used to compute and compare standard errors; the standard errors for parameters are computed using asymptotic theory or bootstrapping and the optimal mesh. We use three examples to illustrate ideas: the Verhulst-Pearl logistic population model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009 Mathematical and Experimental Modeling of Physical and Biological Processes (Boca Raton, FL: Chapman and Hall/CRC)), the standard harmonic oscillator model (Banks H T and Tran H T 2009) and a popular glucose regulation model (Bergman R N, Ider Y Z, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1979 Am. J. Physiol. 236 E667-77 De Gaetano A and Arino O 2000 J. Math. Biol. 40 136-68 Toffolo G, Bergman R N, Finegood D T, Bowden C R and Cobelli C 1980 Diabetes 29 979-90).

Using Least Squares for Error Propagation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tellinghuisen, Joel

2015-01-01

The method of least-squares (LS) has a built-in procedure for estimating the standard errors (SEs) of the adjustable parameters in the fit model: They are the square roots of the diagonal elements of the covariance matrix. This means that one can use least-squares to obtain numerical values of propagated errors by defining the target quantities as…

TU-H-207A-02: Relative Importance of the Various Factors Influencing the Accuracy of Monte Carlo Simulated CT Dose Index

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marous, L; Muryn, J; Liptak, C

2016-06-15

Purpose: Monte Carlo simulation is a frequently used technique for assessing patient dose in CT. The accuracy of a Monte Carlo program is often validated using the standard CT dose index (CTDI) phantoms by comparing simulated and measured CTDI{sub 100}. To achieve good agreement, many input parameters in the simulation (e.g., energy spectrum and effective beam width) need to be determined. However, not all the parameters have equal importance. Our aim was to assess the relative importance of the various factors that influence the accuracy of simulated CTDI{sub 100}. Methods: A Monte Carlo program previously validated for a clinical CTmore » system was used to simulate CTDI{sub 100}. For the standard CTDI phantoms (32 and 16 cm in diameter), CTDI{sub 100} values from central and four peripheral locations at 70 and 120 kVp were first simulated using a set of reference input parameter values (treated as the truth). To emulate the situation in which the input parameter values used by the researcher may deviate from the truth, additional simulations were performed in which intentional errors were introduced into the input parameters, the effects of which on simulated CTDI{sub 100} were analyzed. Results: At 38.4-mm collimation, errors in effective beam width up to 5.0 mm showed negligible effects on simulated CTDI{sub 100} (<1.0%). Likewise, errors in acrylic density of up to 0.01 g/cm{sup 3} resulted in small CTDI{sub 100} errors (<2.5%). In contrast, errors in spectral HVL produced more significant effects: slight deviations (±0.2 mm Al) produced errors up to 4.4%, whereas more extreme deviations (±1.4 mm Al) produced errors as high as 25.9%. Lastly, ignoring the CT table introduced errors up to 13.9%. Conclusion: Monte Carlo simulated CTDI{sub 100} is insensitive to errors in effective beam width and acrylic density. However, they are sensitive to errors in spectral HVL. To obtain accurate results, the CT table should not be ignored. This work was supported by a Faculty Research and Development Award from Cleveland State University.« less

What to use to express the variability of data: Standard deviation or standard error of mean?

PubMed

Barde, Mohini P; Barde, Prajakt J

2012-07-01

Statistics plays a vital role in biomedical research. It helps present data precisely and draws the meaningful conclusions. While presenting data, one should be aware of using adequate statistical measures. In biomedical journals, Standard Error of Mean (SEM) and Standard Deviation (SD) are used interchangeably to express the variability; though they measure different parameters. SEM quantifies uncertainty in estimate of the mean whereas SD indicates dispersion of the data from mean. As readers are generally interested in knowing the variability within sample, descriptive data should be precisely summarized with SD. Use of SEM should be limited to compute CI which measures the precision of population estimate. Journals can avoid such errors by requiring authors to adhere to their guidelines.

A hybrid optimization approach to the estimation of distributed parameters in two-dimensional confined aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heidari, M.; Ranjithan, S.R.

1998-01-01

In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.

A novel artificial fish swarm algorithm for recalibration of fiber optic gyroscope error parameters.

PubMed

Gao, Yanbin; Guan, Lianwu; Wang, Tingjun; Sun, Yunlong

2015-05-05

The artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) is one of the state-of-the-art swarm intelligent techniques, which is widely utilized for optimization purposes. Fiber optic gyroscope (FOG) error parameters such as scale factors, biases and misalignment errors are relatively unstable, especially with the environmental disturbances and the aging of fiber coils. These uncalibrated error parameters are the main reasons that the precision of FOG-based strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS) degraded. This research is mainly on the application of a novel artificial fish swarm algorithm (NAFSA) on FOG error coefficients recalibration/identification. First, the NAFSA avoided the demerits (e.g., lack of using artificial fishes' pervious experiences, lack of existing balance between exploration and exploitation, and high computational cost) of the standard AFSA during the optimization process. To solve these weak points, functional behaviors and the overall procedures of AFSA have been improved with some parameters eliminated and several supplementary parameters added. Second, a hybrid FOG error coefficients recalibration algorithm has been proposed based on NAFSA and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approaches. This combination leads to maximum utilization of the involved approaches for FOG error coefficients recalibration. After that, the NAFSA is verified with simulation and experiments and its priorities are compared with that of the conventional calibration method and optimal AFSA. Results demonstrate high efficiency of the NAFSA on FOG error coefficients recalibration.

Water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

2014-12-01

This paper deals with water quality management using statistical analysis and time-series prediction model. The monthly variation of water quality standards has been used to compare statistical mean, median, mode, standard deviation, kurtosis, skewness, coefficient of variation at Yamuna River. Model validated using R-squared, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, maximum absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, maximum absolute error, normalized Bayesian information criterion, Ljung-Box analysis, predicted value and confidence limits. Using auto regressive integrated moving average model, future water quality parameters values have been estimated. It is observed that predictive model is useful at 95 % confidence limits and curve is platykurtic for potential of hydrogen (pH), free ammonia, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, water temperature (WT); leptokurtic for chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand. Also, it is observed that predicted series is close to the original series which provides a perfect fit. All parameters except pH and WT cross the prescribed limits of the World Health Organization /United States Environmental Protection Agency, and thus water is not fit for drinking, agriculture and industrial use.

System Identification Applied to Dynamic CFD Simulation and Wind Tunnel Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick C.; Klein, Vladislav; Frink, Neal T.; Vicroy, Dan D.

2011-01-01

Demanding aerodynamic modeling requirements for military and civilian aircraft have provided impetus for researchers to improve computational and experimental techniques. Model validation is a key component for these research endeavors so this study is an initial effort to extend conventional time history comparisons by comparing model parameter estimates and their standard errors using system identification methods. An aerodynamic model of an aircraft performing one-degree-of-freedom roll oscillatory motion about its body axes is developed. The model includes linear aerodynamics and deficiency function parameters characterizing an unsteady effect. For estimation of unknown parameters two techniques, harmonic analysis and two-step linear regression, were applied to roll-oscillatory wind tunnel data and to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulated data. The model used for this study is a highly swept wing unmanned aerial combat vehicle. Differences in response prediction, parameters estimates, and standard errors are compared and discussed

Comparison of various error functions in predicting the optimum isotherm by linear and non-linear regression analysis for the sorption of basic red 9 by activated carbon.

PubMed

Kumar, K Vasanth; Porkodi, K; Rocha, F

2008-01-15

A comparison of linear and non-linear regression method in selecting the optimum isotherm was made to the experimental equilibrium data of basic red 9 sorption by activated carbon. The r(2) was used to select the best fit linear theoretical isotherm. In the case of non-linear regression method, six error functions namely coefficient of determination (r(2)), hybrid fractional error function (HYBRID), Marquardt's percent standard deviation (MPSD), the average relative error (ARE), sum of the errors squared (ERRSQ) and sum of the absolute errors (EABS) were used to predict the parameters involved in the two and three parameter isotherms and also to predict the optimum isotherm. Non-linear regression was found to be a better way to obtain the parameters involved in the isotherms and also the optimum isotherm. For two parameter isotherm, MPSD was found to be the best error function in minimizing the error distribution between the experimental equilibrium data and predicted isotherms. In the case of three parameter isotherm, r(2) was found to be the best error function to minimize the error distribution structure between experimental equilibrium data and theoretical isotherms. The present study showed that the size of the error function alone is not a deciding factor to choose the optimum isotherm. In addition to the size of error function, the theory behind the predicted isotherm should be verified with the help of experimental data while selecting the optimum isotherm. A coefficient of non-determination, K(2) was explained and was found to be very useful in identifying the best error function while selecting the optimum isotherm.

Testing of mechanical ventilators and infant incubators in healthcare institutions.

PubMed

Badnjevic, Almir; Gurbeta, Lejla; Jimenez, Elvira Ruiz; Iadanza, Ernesto

2017-01-01

The medical device industry has grown rapidly and incessantly over the past century. The sophistication and complexity of the designed instrumentation is nowadays rising and, with it, has also increased the need to develop some better, more effective and efficient maintenance processes, as part of the safety and performance requirements. This paper presents the results of performance tests conducted on 50 mechanical ventilators and 50 infant incubators used in various public healthcare institutions. Testing was conducted in accordance to safety and performance requirements stated in relevant international standards, directives and legal metrology policies. Testing of output parameters for mechanical ventilators was performed in 4 measuring points while testing of output parameters for infant incubators was performed in 7 measuring points for each infant incubator. As performance criteria, relative error of output parameters for mechanical ventilators and absolute error of output parameters for infant incubators was calculated. The ranges of permissible error, for both groups of devices, are regulated by the Rules on Metrological and Technical Requirements published in the Official Gazette of Bosnia and Herzegovina No. 75/14, which are defined based on international recommendations, standards and guidelines. All ventilators and incubators were tested by etalons calibrated in an ISO 17025 accredited laboratory, which provides compliance to international standards for all measured parameters.The results show that 30% of the tested medical devices are not operating properly and should be serviced, recalibrated and/or removed from daily application.

Error Consistency Analysis Scheme for Infrared Ultraspectral Sounding Retrieval Error Budget Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, William L.; Strow, Larry, L.

2013-01-01

Great effort has been devoted towards validating geophysical parameters retrieved from ultraspectral infrared radiances obtained from satellite remote sensors. An error consistency analysis scheme (ECAS), utilizing fast radiative transfer model (RTM) forward and inverse calculations, has been developed to estimate the error budget in terms of mean difference and standard deviation of error in both spectral radiance and retrieval domains. The retrieval error is assessed through ECAS without relying on other independent measurements such as radiosonde data. ECAS establishes a link between the accuracies of radiances and retrieved geophysical parameters. ECAS can be applied to measurements from any ultraspectral instrument and any retrieval scheme with its associated RTM. In this manuscript, ECAS is described and demonstrated with measurements from the MetOp-A satellite Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). This scheme can be used together with other validation methodologies to give a more definitive characterization of the error and/or uncertainty of geophysical parameters retrieved from ultraspectral radiances observed from current and future satellite remote sensors such as IASI, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS).

SU-C-BRD-03: Analysis of Accelerator Generated Text Logs for Preemptive Maintenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Able, CM; Baydush, AH; Nguyen, C

2014-06-15

Purpose: To develop a model to analyze medical accelerator generated parameter and performance data that will provide an early warning of performance degradation and impending component failure. Methods: A robust 6 MV VMAT quality assurance treatment delivery was used to test the constancy of accelerator performance. The generated text log files were decoded and analyzed using statistical process control (SPC) methodology. The text file data is a single snapshot of energy specific and overall systems parameters. A total of 36 system parameters were monitored which include RF generation, electron gun control, energy control, beam uniformity control, DC voltage generation, andmore » cooling systems. The parameters were analyzed using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) charts. The chart limits were calculated using a hybrid technique that included the use of the standard 3σ limits and the parameter/system specification. Synthetic errors/changes were introduced to determine the initial effectiveness of I/MR charts in detecting relevant changes in operating parameters. The magnitude of the synthetic errors/changes was based on: the value of 1 standard deviation from the mean operating parameter of 483 TB systems, a small fraction (≤ 5%) of the operating range, or a fraction of the minor fault deviation. Results: There were 34 parameters in which synthetic errors were introduced. There were 2 parameters (radial position steering coil, and positive 24V DC) in which the errors did not exceed the limit of the I/MR chart. The I chart limit was exceeded for all of the remaining parameters (94.2%). The MR chart limit was exceeded in 29 of the 32 parameters (85.3%) in which the I chart limit was exceeded. Conclusion: Statistical process control I/MR evaluation of text log file parameters may be effective in providing an early warning of performance degradation or component failure for digital medical accelerator systems. Research is Supported by Varian Medical Systems, Inc.« less

Effect of grid transparency and finite collector size on determining ion temperature and density by the retarding potential analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Troy, B. E., Jr.; Maier, E. J.

1975-01-01

The effects of the grid transparency and finite collector size on the values of thermal ion density and temperature determined by the standard RPA (retarding potential analyzer) analysis method are investigated. The current-voltage curves calculated for varying RPA parameters and a given ion mass, temperature, and density are analyzed by the standard RPA method. It is found that only small errors in temperature and density are introduced for an RPA with typical dimensions, and that even when the density error is substantial for nontypical dimensions, the temperature error remains minimum.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data: 1. Estimation techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gilliom, Robert J.; Helsel, Dennis R.

1986-01-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data. 1. Estimation Techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

1986-02-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensoredmore » observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data det. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification.« less

Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace-level water-quality data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

1984-01-01

A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water-sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations,more » for determining the best-performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least-squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores. When method performance was separately evaluated for each distributional parameter over all simulation conditions, the log-probability regression method still had the smallest errors for the mean and standard deviation, but the lognormal maximum likelihood method had the smallest errors for the median and interquartile range. When data sets were classified prior to parameter estimation into groups reflecting their probable parent distributions, the ranking of estimation methods was similar, but the accuracy of error estimates was markedly improved over those without classification. 6 figs., 6 tabs.« less

A novel auto-tuning PID control mechanism for nonlinear systems.

PubMed

Cetin, Meric; Iplikci, Serdar

2015-09-01

In this paper, a novel Runge-Kutta (RK) discretization-based model-predictive auto-tuning proportional-integral-derivative controller (RK-PID) is introduced for the control of continuous-time nonlinear systems. The parameters of the PID controller are tuned using RK model of the system through prediction error-square minimization where the predicted information of tracking error provides an enhanced tuning of the parameters. Based on the model-predictive control (MPC) approach, the proposed mechanism provides necessary PID parameter adaptations while generating additive correction terms to assist the initially inadequate PID controller. Efficiency of the proposed mechanism has been tested on two experimental real-time systems: an unstable single-input single-output (SISO) nonlinear magnetic-levitation system and a nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) liquid-level system. RK-PID has been compared to standard PID, standard nonlinear MPC (NMPC), RK-MPC and conventional sliding-mode control (SMC) methods in terms of control performance, robustness, computational complexity and design issue. The proposed mechanism exhibits acceptable tuning and control performance with very small steady-state tracking errors, and provides very short settling time for parameter convergence. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of nutritional parameters of yoghurts by FT Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czaja, Tomasz; Baranowska, Maria; Mazurek, Sylwester; Szostak, Roman

2018-05-01

FT-Raman quantitative analysis of nutritional parameters of yoghurts was performed with the help of partial least squares models. The relative standard errors of prediction for fat, lactose and protein determination in the quantified commercial samples equalled to 3.9, 3.2 and 3.6%, respectively. Models based on attenuated total reflectance spectra of the liquid yoghurt samples and of dried yoghurt films collected with the single reflection diamond accessory showed relative standard errors of prediction values of 1.6-5.0% and 2.7-5.2%, respectively, for the analysed components. Despite a relatively low signal-to-noise ratio in the obtained spectra, Raman spectroscopy, combined with chemometrics, constitutes a fast and powerful tool for macronutrients quantification in yoghurts. Errors received for attenuated total reflectance method were found to be relatively higher than those for Raman spectroscopy due to inhomogeneity of the analysed samples.

Improved parameter inference in catchment models: 1. Evaluating parameter uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuczera, George

1983-10-01

A Bayesian methodology is developed to evaluate parameter uncertainty in catchment models fitted to a hydrologic response such as runoff, the goal being to improve the chance of successful regionalization. The catchment model is posed as a nonlinear regression model with stochastic errors possibly being both autocorrelated and heteroscedastic. The end result of this methodology, which may use Box-Cox power transformations and ARMA error models, is the posterior distribution, which summarizes what is known about the catchment model parameters. This can be simplified to a multivariate normal provided a linearization in parameter space is acceptable; means of checking and improving this assumption are discussed. The posterior standard deviations give a direct measure of parameter uncertainty, and study of the posterior correlation matrix can indicate what kinds of data are required to improve the precision of poorly determined parameters. Finally, a case study involving a nine-parameter catchment model fitted to monthly runoff and soil moisture data is presented. It is shown that use of ordinary least squares when its underlying error assumptions are violated gives an erroneous description of parameter uncertainty.

A fast Monte Carlo EM algorithm for estimation in latent class model analysis with an application to assess diagnostic accuracy for cervical neoplasia in women with AGC

PubMed Central

Kang, Le; Carter, Randy; Darcy, Kathleen; Kauderer, James; Liao, Shu-Yuan

2013-01-01

In this article we use a latent class model (LCM) with prevalence modeled as a function of covariates to assess diagnostic test accuracy in situations where the true disease status is not observed, but observations on three or more conditionally independent diagnostic tests are available. A fast Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm with binary (disease) diagnostic data is implemented to estimate parameters of interest; namely, sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence of the disease as a function of covariates. To obtain standard errors for confidence interval construction of estimated parameters, the missing information principle is applied to adjust information matrix estimates. We compare the adjusted information matrix based standard error estimates with the bootstrap standard error estimates both obtained using the fast MCEM algorithm through an extensive Monte Carlo study. Simulation demonstrates that the adjusted information matrix approach estimates the standard error similarly with the bootstrap methods under certain scenarios. The bootstrap percentile intervals have satisfactory coverage probabilities. We then apply the LCM analysis to a real data set of 122 subjects from a Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG) study of significant cervical lesion (S-CL) diagnosis in women with atypical glandular cells of undetermined significance (AGC) to compare the diagnostic accuracy of a histology-based evaluation, a CA-IX biomarker-based test and a human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA test. PMID:24163493

How large are the consequences of covariate imbalance in cluster randomized trials: a simulation study with a continuous outcome and a binary covariate at the cluster level.

PubMed

Moerbeek, Mirjam; van Schie, Sander

2016-07-11

The number of clusters in a cluster randomized trial is often low. It is therefore likely random assignment of clusters to treatment conditions results in covariate imbalance. There are no studies that quantify the consequences of covariate imbalance in cluster randomized trials on parameter and standard error bias and on power to detect treatment effects. The consequences of covariance imbalance in unadjusted and adjusted linear mixed models are investigated by means of a simulation study. The factors in this study are the degree of imbalance, the covariate effect size, the cluster size and the intraclass correlation coefficient. The covariate is binary and measured at the cluster level; the outcome is continuous and measured at the individual level. The results show covariate imbalance results in negligible parameter bias and small standard error bias in adjusted linear mixed models. Ignoring the possibility of covariate imbalance while calculating the sample size at the cluster level may result in a loss in power of at most 25 % in the adjusted linear mixed model. The results are more severe for the unadjusted linear mixed model: parameter biases up to 100 % and standard error biases up to 200 % may be observed. Power levels based on the unadjusted linear mixed model are often too low. The consequences are most severe for large clusters and/or small intraclass correlation coefficients since then the required number of clusters to achieve a desired power level is smallest. The possibility of covariate imbalance should be taken into account while calculating the sample size of a cluster randomized trial. Otherwise more sophisticated methods to randomize clusters to treatments should be used, such as stratification or balance algorithms. All relevant covariates should be carefully identified, be actually measured and included in the statistical model to avoid severe levels of parameter and standard error bias and insufficient power levels.

Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals from Bootstrapping for Ramsay-Curve Item Response Theory Model Item Parameters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gu, Fei; Skorupski, William P.; Hoyle, Larry; Kingston, Neal M.

2011-01-01

Ramsay-curve item response theory (RC-IRT) is a nonparametric procedure that estimates the latent trait using splines, and no distributional assumption about the latent trait is required. For item parameters of the two-parameter logistic (2-PL), three-parameter logistic (3-PL), and polytomous IRT models, RC-IRT can provide more accurate estimates…

Noise-induced errors in geophysical parameter estimation from retarding potential analyzers in low Earth orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debchoudhury, Shantanab; Earle, Gregory

2017-04-01

Retarding Potential Analyzers (RPA) have a rich flight heritage. Standard curve-fitting analysis techniques exist that can infer state variables in the ionospheric plasma environment from RPA data, but the estimation process is prone to errors arising from a number of sources. Previous work has focused on the effects of grid geometry on uncertainties in estimation; however, no prior study has quantified the estimation errors due to additive noise. In this study, we characterize the errors in estimation of thermal plasma parameters by adding noise to the simulated data derived from the existing ionospheric models. We concentrate on low-altitude, mid-inclination orbits since a number of nano-satellite missions are focused on this region of the ionosphere. The errors are quantified and cross-correlated for varying geomagnetic conditions.

Evaluation of seasonal and spatial variations of lumped water balance model sensitivity to precipitation data errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chong-yu; Tunemar, Liselotte; Chen, Yongqin David; Singh, V. P.

2006-06-01

Sensitivity of hydrological models to input data errors have been reported in the literature for particular models on a single or a few catchments. A more important issue, i.e. how model's response to input data error changes as the catchment conditions change has not been addressed previously. This study investigates the seasonal and spatial effects of precipitation data errors on the performance of conceptual hydrological models. For this study, a monthly conceptual water balance model, NOPEX-6, was applied to 26 catchments in the Mälaren basin in Central Sweden. Both systematic and random errors were considered. For the systematic errors, 5-15% of mean monthly precipitation values were added to the original precipitation to form the corrupted input scenarios. Random values were generated by Monte Carlo simulation and were assumed to be (1) independent between months, and (2) distributed according to a Gaussian law of zero mean and constant standard deviation that were taken as 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25% of the mean monthly standard deviation of precipitation. The results show that the response of the model parameters and model performance depends, among others, on the type of the error, the magnitude of the error, physical characteristics of the catchment, and the season of the year. In particular, the model appears less sensitive to the random error than to the systematic error. The catchments with smaller values of runoff coefficients were more influenced by input data errors than were the catchments with higher values. Dry months were more sensitive to precipitation errors than were wet months. Recalibration of the model with erroneous data compensated in part for the data errors by altering the model parameters.

Analysis of DGPS/INS and MLS/INS final approach navigation errors and control performance data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueschen, Richard M.; Spitzer, Cary R.

1992-01-01

Flight tests were conducted jointly by NASA Langley Research Center and Honeywell, Inc., on a B-737 research aircraft to record a data base for evaluating the performance of a differential DGPS/inertial navigation system (INS) which used GPS Course/Acquisition code receivers. Estimates from the DGPS/INS and a Microwave Landing System (MLS)/INS, and various aircraft parameter data were recorded in real time aboard the aircraft while flying along the final approach path to landing. This paper presents the mean and standard deviation of the DGPS/INS and MLS/INS navigation position errors computed relative to the laser tracker system and of the difference between the DGPS/INS and MLS/INS velocity estimates. RMS errors are presented for DGPS/INS and MLS/INS guidance errors (localizer and glideslope). The mean navigation position errors and standard deviation of the x position coordinate of the DGPS/INS and MLS/INS systems were found to be of similar magnitude while the standard deviation of the y and z position coordinate errors were significantly larger for DGPS/INS compared to MLS/INS.

The Influence of Dimensionality on Estimation in the Partial Credit Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Ayala, R. J.

1995-01-01

The effect of multidimensionality on partial credit model parameter estimation was studied with noncompensatory and compensatory data. Analysis results, consisting of root mean square error bias, Pearson product-moment corrections, standardized root mean squared differences, standardized differences between means, and descriptive statistics…

On how to avoid input and structural uncertainties corrupt the inference of hydrological parameters using a Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, Mario R.; Francés, Félix

2015-04-01

One phase of the hydrological models implementation process, significantly contributing to the hydrological predictions uncertainty, is the calibration phase in which values of the unknown model parameters are tuned by optimizing an objective function. An unsuitable error model (e.g. Standard Least Squares or SLS) introduces noise into the estimation of the parameters. The main sources of this noise are the input errors and the hydrological model structural deficiencies. Thus, the biased calibrated parameters cause the divergence model phenomenon, where the errors variance of the (spatially and temporally) forecasted flows far exceeds the errors variance in the fitting period, and provoke the loss of part or all of the physical meaning of the modeled processes. In other words, yielding a calibrated hydrological model which works well, but not for the right reasons. Besides, an unsuitable error model yields a non-reliable predictive uncertainty assessment. Hence, with the aim of prevent all these undesirable effects, this research focuses on the Bayesian joint inference (BJI) of both the hydrological and error model parameters, considering a general additive (GA) error model that allows for correlation, non-stationarity (in variance and bias) and non-normality of model residuals. As hydrological model, it has been used a conceptual distributed model called TETIS, with a particular split structure of the effective model parameters. Bayesian inference has been performed with the aid of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm called Dream-ZS. MCMC algorithm quantifies the uncertainty of the hydrological and error model parameters by getting the joint posterior probability distribution, conditioned on the observed flows. The BJI methodology is a very powerful and reliable tool, but it must be used correctly this is, if non-stationarity in errors variance and bias is modeled, the Total Laws must be taken into account. The results of this research show that the application of BJI with a GA error model outperforms the hydrological parameters robustness (diminishing the divergence model phenomenon) and improves the reliability of the streamflow predictive distribution, in respect of the results of a bad error model as SLS. Finally, the most likely prediction in a validation period, for both BJI+GA and SLS error models shows a similar performance.

A Note on the Specification of Error Structures in Latent Interaction Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mao, Xiulin; Harring, Jeffrey R.; Hancock, Gregory R.

2015-01-01

Latent interaction models have motivated a great deal of methodological research, mainly in the area of estimating such models. Product-indicator methods have been shown to be competitive with other methods of estimation in terms of parameter bias and standard error accuracy, and their continued popularity in empirical studies is due, in part, to…

An EM Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Process Factor Analysis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Taehun

2010-01-01

In this dissertation, an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is developed and implemented to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and the associated standard error estimates characterizing temporal flows for the latent variable time series following stationary vector ARMA processes, as well as the parameters defining the…

An algebraic aspect of Pareto mixture parameter estimation using censored sample: A Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Saleem, Muhammad; Sharif, Kashif; Fahmi, Aliya

2018-04-27

Applications of Pareto distribution are common in reliability, survival and financial studies. In this paper, A Pareto mixture distribution is considered to model a heterogeneous population comprising of two subgroups. Each of two subgroups is characterized by the same functional form with unknown distinct shape and scale parameters. Bayes estimators have been derived using flat and conjugate priors using squared error loss function. Standard errors have also been derived for the Bayes estimators. An interesting feature of this study is the preparation of components of Fisher Information matrix.

Analysis of tractable distortion metrics for EEG compression applications.

PubMed

Bazán-Prieto, Carlos; Blanco-Velasco, Manuel; Cárdenas-Barrera, Julián; Cruz-Roldán, Fernando

2012-07-01

Coding distortion in lossy electroencephalographic (EEG) signal compression methods is evaluated through tractable objective criteria. The percentage root-mean-square difference, which is a global and relative indicator of the quality held by reconstructed waveforms, is the most widely used criterion. However, this parameter does not ensure compliance with clinical standard guidelines that specify limits to allowable noise in EEG recordings. As a result, expert clinicians may have difficulties interpreting the resulting distortion of the EEG for a given value of this parameter. Conversely, the root-mean-square error is an alternative criterion that quantifies distortion in understandable units. In this paper, we demonstrate that the root-mean-square error is better suited to control and to assess the distortion introduced by compression methods. The experiments conducted in this paper show that the use of the root-mean-square error as target parameter in EEG compression allows both clinicians and scientists to infer whether coding error is clinically acceptable or not at no cost for the compression ratio.

A comparison of registration errors with imageless computer navigation during MIS total knee arthroplasty versus standard incision total knee arthroplasty: a cadaveric study.

PubMed

Davis, Edward T; Pagkalos, Joseph; Gallie, Price A M; Macgroarty, Kelly; Waddell, James P; Schemitsch, Emil H

2015-01-01

Optimal component alignment in total knee arthroplasty has been associated with better functional outcome as well as improved implant longevity. The ability to align components optimally during minimally invasive (MIS) total knee replacement (TKR) has been a cause of concern. Computer navigation is a useful aid in achieving the desired alignment although it is limited by the error during the manual registration of landmarks. Our study aims to compare the registration process error between a standard and a MIS surgical approach. We hypothesized that performing the registration error via an MIS approach would increase the registration process error. Five fresh frozen lower limbs were routinely prepared and draped. The registration process was performed through an MIS approach. This was then extended to the standard approach and the registration was performed again. Two surgeons performed the registration process five times with each approach. Performing the registration process through the MIS approach was not associated with higher error compared to the standard approach in the alignment parameters of interest. This rejects our hypothesis. Image-free navigated MIS TKR does not appear to carry higher risk of component malalignment due to the registration process error. Navigation can be used during MIS TKR to improve alignment without reduced accuracy due to the approach.

Precision modelling of M dwarf stars: the magnetic components of CM Draconis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, J.; Mullan, D. J.

2012-04-01

The eclipsing binary CM Draconis (CM Dra) contains two nearly identical red dwarfs of spectral class dM4.5. The masses and radii of the two components have been reported with unprecedentedly small statistical errors: for M, these errors are 1 part in 260, while for R, the errors reported by Morales et al. are 1 part in 130. When compared with standard stellar models with appropriate mass and age (≈4 Gyr), the empirical results indicate that both components are discrepant from the models in the following sense: the observed stars are larger in R ('bloated'), by several standard deviations, than the models predict. The observed luminosities are also lower than the models predict. Here, we attempt at first to model the two components of CM Dra in the context of standard (non-magnetic) stellar models using a systematic array of different assumptions about helium abundances (Y), heavy element abundances (Z), opacities and mixing length parameter (α). We find no 4-Gyr-old models with plausible values of these four parameters that fit the observed L and R within the reported statistical error bars. However, CM Dra is known to contain magnetic fields, as evidenced by the occurrence of star-spots and flares. Here we ask: can inclusion of magnetic effects into stellar evolution models lead to fits of L and R within the error bars? Morales et al. have reported that the presence of polar spots results in a systematic overestimate of R by a few per cent when eclipses are interpreted with a standard code. In a star where spots cover a fraction f of the surface area, we find that the revised R and L for CM Dra A can be fitted within the error bars by varying the parameter α. The latter is often assumed to be reduced by the presence of magnetic fields, although the reduction in α as a function of B is difficult to quantify. An alternative magnetic effect, namely inhibition of the onset of convection, can be readily quantified in terms of a magnetic parameter δ≈B2/4πγpgas (where B is the strength of the local vertical magnetic field). In the context of δ models in which B is not allowed to exceed a 'ceiling' of 106 G, we find that the revised R and L can also be fitted, within the error bars, in a finite region of the f-δ plane. The permitted values of δ near the surface leads us to estimate that the vertical field strength on the surface of CM Dra A is about 500 G, in good agreement with independent observational evidence for similar low-mass stars. Recent results for another binary with parameters close to those of CM Dra suggest that metallicity differences cannot be the dominant explanation for the bloating of the two components of CM Dra.

Analysis of uncertainties in Monte Carlo simulated organ dose for chest CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muryn, John S.; Morgan, Ashraf G.; Segars, W. P.; Liptak, Chris L.; Dong, Frank F.; Primak, Andrew N.; Li, Xiang

2015-03-01

In Monte Carlo simulation of organ dose for a chest CT scan, many input parameters are required (e.g., half-value layer of the x-ray energy spectrum, effective beam width, and anatomical coverage of the scan). The input parameter values are provided by the manufacturer, measured experimentally, or determined based on typical clinical practices. The goal of this study was to assess the uncertainties in Monte Carlo simulated organ dose as a result of using input parameter values that deviate from the truth (clinical reality). Organ dose from a chest CT scan was simulated for a standard-size female phantom using a set of reference input parameter values (treated as the truth). To emulate the situation in which the input parameter values used by the researcher may deviate from the truth, additional simulations were performed in which errors were purposefully introduced into the input parameter values, the effects of which on organ dose per CTDIvol were analyzed. Our study showed that when errors in half value layer were within ± 0.5 mm Al, the errors in organ dose per CTDIvol were less than 6%. Errors in effective beam width of up to 3 mm had negligible effect (< 2.5%) on organ dose. In contrast, when the assumed anatomical center of the patient deviated from the true anatomical center by 5 cm, organ dose errors of up to 20% were introduced. Lastly, when the assumed extra scan length was longer by 4 cm than the true value, dose errors of up to 160% were found. The results answer the important question: to what level of accuracy each input parameter needs to be determined in order to obtain accurate organ dose results.

Research on the calibration methods of the luminance parameter of radiation luminance meters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Weihai; Huang, Biyong; Lin, Fangsheng; Li, Tiecheng; Yin, Dejin; Lai, Lei

2017-10-01

This paper introduces standard diffusion reflection white plate method and integrating sphere standard luminance source method to calibrate the luminance parameter. The paper compares the effects of calibration results by using these two methods through principle analysis and experimental verification. After using two methods to calibrate the same radiation luminance meter, the data obtained verifies the testing results of the two methods are both reliable. The results show that the display value using standard white plate method has fewer errors and better reproducibility. However, standard luminance source method is more convenient and suitable for on-site calibration. Moreover, standard luminance source method has wider range and can test the linear performance of the instruments.

Automation of workplace lifting hazard assessment for musculoskeletal injury prevention.

PubMed

Spector, June T; Lieblich, Max; Bao, Stephen; McQuade, Kevin; Hughes, Margaret

2014-01-01

Existing methods for practically evaluating musculoskeletal exposures such as posture and repetition in workplace settings have limitations. We aimed to automate the estimation of parameters in the revised United States National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) lifting equation, a standard manual observational tool used to evaluate back injury risk related to lifting in workplace settings, using depth camera (Microsoft Kinect) and skeleton algorithm technology. A large dataset (approximately 22,000 frames, derived from six subjects) of simultaneous lifting and other motions recorded in a laboratory setting using the Kinect (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington, United States) and a standard optical motion capture system (Qualysis, Qualysis Motion Capture Systems, Qualysis AB, Sweden) was assembled. Error-correction regression models were developed to improve the accuracy of NIOSH lifting equation parameters estimated from the Kinect skeleton. Kinect-Qualysis errors were modelled using gradient boosted regression trees with a Huber loss function. Models were trained on data from all but one subject and tested on the excluded subject. Finally, models were tested on three lifting trials performed by subjects not involved in the generation of the model-building dataset. Error-correction appears to produce estimates for NIOSH lifting equation parameters that are more accurate than those derived from the Microsoft Kinect algorithm alone. Our error-correction models substantially decreased the variance of parameter errors. In general, the Kinect underestimated parameters, and modelling reduced this bias, particularly for more biased estimates. Use of the raw Kinect skeleton model tended to result in falsely high safe recommended weight limits of loads, whereas error-corrected models gave more conservative, protective estimates. Our results suggest that it may be possible to produce reasonable estimates of posture and temporal elements of tasks such as task frequency in an automated fashion, although these findings should be confirmed in a larger study. Further work is needed to incorporate force assessments and address workplace feasibility challenges. We anticipate that this approach could ultimately be used to perform large-scale musculoskeletal exposure assessment not only for research but also to provide real-time feedback to workers and employers during work method improvement activities and employee training.

Optimal estimation of suspended-sediment concentrations in streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.

2001-01-01

Optimal estimators are developed for computation of suspended-sediment concentrations in streams. The estimators are a function of parameters, computed by use of generalized least squares, which simultaneously account for effects of streamflow, seasonal variations in average sediment concentrations, a dynamic error component, and the uncertainty in concentration measurements. The parameters are used in a Kalman filter for on-line estimation and an associated smoother for off-line estimation of suspended-sediment concentrations. The accuracies of the optimal estimators are compared with alternative time-averaging interpolators and flow-weighting regression estimators by use of long-term daily-mean suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow data from 10 sites within the United States. For sampling intervals from 3 to 48 days, the standard errors of on-line and off-line optimal estimators ranged from 52.7 to 107%, and from 39.5 to 93.0%, respectively. The corresponding standard errors of linear and cubic-spline interpolators ranged from 48.8 to 158%, and from 50.6 to 176%, respectively. The standard errors of simple and multiple regression estimators, which did not vary with the sampling interval, were 124 and 105%, respectively. Thus, the optimal off-line estimator (Kalman smoother) had the lowest error characteristics of those evaluated. Because suspended-sediment concentrations are typically measured at less than 3-day intervals, use of optimal estimators will likely result in significant improvements in the accuracy of continuous suspended-sediment concentration records. Additional research on the integration of direct suspended-sediment concentration measurements and optimal estimators applied at hourly or shorter intervals is needed.

30 CFR 817.116 - Revegetation: Standards for success.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... confidence interval (i.e., a one-sided test with a 0.10 alpha error). (b) Standards for success shall be... tree and shrub stocking and vegetative ground cover. Such parameters are described as follows: (i... either a programwide or a permit-specific basis. (ii) Trees and shrubs that will be used in determining...

30 CFR 816.116 - Revegetation: Standards for success.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... confidence interval (i.e., one-sided test with a 0.10 alpha error). (b) Standards for success shall be... tree and shrub stocking and vegetative ground cover. Such parameters are described as follows: (i... either a programwide or a permit-specific basis. (ii) Trees and shrubs that will be used in determining...

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 2. Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1983-01-01

This paper investigates factors influencing the degree of improvement in estimates of parameters of a nonlinear regression groundwater flow model by incorporating prior information of unknown reliability. Consideration of expected behavior of the regression solutions and results of a hypothetical modeling problem lead to several general conclusions. First, if the parameters are properly scaled, linearized expressions for the mean square error (MSE) in parameter estimates of a nonlinear model will often behave very nearly as if the model were linear. Second, by using prior information, the MSE in properly scaled parameters can be reduced greatly over the MSE of ordinary least squares estimates of parameters. Third, plots of estimated MSE and the estimated standard deviation of MSE versus an auxiliary parameter (the ridge parameter) specifying the degree of influence of the prior information on regression results can help determine the potential for improvement of parameter estimates. Fourth, proposed criteria can be used to make appropriate choices for the ridge parameter and another parameter expressing degree of overall bias in the prior information. Results of a case study of Truckee Meadows, Reno-Sparks area, Washoe County, Nevada, conform closely to the results of the hypothetical problem. In the Truckee Meadows case, incorporation of prior information did not greatly change the parameter estimates from those obtained by ordinary least squares. However, the analysis showed that both sets of estimates are more reliable than suggested by the standard errors from ordinary least squares.

Application of the precipitation-runoff modeling system to the Ah- shi-sle-pah Wash watershed, San Juan County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hejl, H.R.

1989-01-01

The precipitation-runoff modeling system was applied to the 8.21 sq-mi drainage area of the Ah-shi-sle-pah Wash watershed in northwestern New Mexico. The calibration periods were May to September of 1981 and 1982, and the verification period was May to September 1983. Twelve storms were available for calibration and 8 storms were available for verification. For calibration A (hydraulic conductivity estimated from onsite data and other storm-mode parameters optimized), the computed standard error of estimate was 50% for runoff volumes and 72% of peak discharges. Calibration B included hydraulic conductivity in the optimization, which reduced the standard error of estimate to 28 % for runoff volumes and 50% for peak discharges. Optimized values for hydraulic conductivity resulted in reductions from 1.00 to 0.26 in/h and 0.20 to 0.03 in/h for the 2 general soils groups in the calibrations. Simulated runoff volumes using 7 of 8 storms occurring during the verification period had a standard error of estimate of 40% for verification A and 38% for verification B. Simulated peak discharge had a standard error of estimate of 120% for verification A and 56% for verification B. Including the eighth storm which had a relatively small magnitude in the verification analysis more than doubled the standard error of estimating volumes and peaks. (USGS)

Quantifying Adventitious Error in a Covariance Structure as a Random Effect

PubMed Central

Wu, Hao; Browne, Michael W.

2017-01-01

We present an approach to quantifying errors in covariance structures in which adventitious error, identified as the process underlying the discrepancy between the population and the structured model, is explicitly modeled as a random effect with a distribution, and the dispersion parameter of this distribution to be estimated gives a measure of misspecification. Analytical properties of the resultant procedure are investigated and the measure of misspecification is found to be related to the RMSEA. An algorithm is developed for numerical implementation of the procedure. The consistency and asymptotic sampling distributions of the estimators are established under a new asymptotic paradigm and an assumption weaker than the standard Pitman drift assumption. Simulations validate the asymptotic sampling distributions and demonstrate the importance of accounting for the variations in the parameter estimates due to adventitious error. Two examples are also given as illustrations. PMID:25813463

A Comparison of Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Asymptotically Distribution-Free Dynamic Factor Analysis Parameter Estimation in Fitting Covariance Structure Models to Block-Toeplitz Matrices Representing Single-Subject Multivariate Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Nesselroade, John R.

1998-01-01

Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (p-ML) and Asymptotically Distribution Free (ADF) estimation methods for estimating dynamic factor model parameters within a covariance structure framework were compared through a Monte Carlo simulation. Both methods appear to give consistent model parameter estimates, but only ADF gives standard errors and chi-square…

Comparison of bootstrap approaches for estimation of uncertainties of DTI parameters.

PubMed

Chung, SungWon; Lu, Ying; Henry, Roland G

2006-11-01

Bootstrap is an empirical non-parametric statistical technique based on data resampling that has been used to quantify uncertainties of diffusion tensor MRI (DTI) parameters, useful in tractography and in assessing DTI methods. The current bootstrap method (repetition bootstrap) used for DTI analysis performs resampling within the data sharing common diffusion gradients, requiring multiple acquisitions for each diffusion gradient. Recently, wild bootstrap was proposed that can be applied without multiple acquisitions. In this paper, two new approaches are introduced called residual bootstrap and repetition bootknife. We show that repetition bootknife corrects for the large bias present in the repetition bootstrap method and, therefore, better estimates the standard errors. Like wild bootstrap, residual bootstrap is applicable to single acquisition scheme, and both are based on regression residuals (called model-based resampling). Residual bootstrap is based on the assumption that non-constant variance of measured diffusion-attenuated signals can be modeled, which is actually the assumption behind the widely used weighted least squares solution of diffusion tensor. The performances of these bootstrap approaches were compared in terms of bias, variance, and overall error of bootstrap-estimated standard error by Monte Carlo simulation. We demonstrate that residual bootstrap has smaller biases and overall errors, which enables estimation of uncertainties with higher accuracy. Understanding the properties of these bootstrap procedures will help us to choose the optimal approach for estimating uncertainties that can benefit hypothesis testing based on DTI parameters, probabilistic fiber tracking, and optimizing DTI methods.

Suppression of Systematic Errors of Electronic Distance Meters for Measurement of Short Distances

PubMed Central

Braun, Jaroslav; Štroner, Martin; Urban, Rudolf; Dvořáček, Filip

2015-01-01

In modern industrial geodesy, high demands are placed on the final accuracy, with expectations currently falling below 1 mm. The measurement methodology and surveying instruments used have to be adjusted to meet these stringent requirements, especially the total stations as the most often used instruments. A standard deviation of the measured distance is the accuracy parameter, commonly between 1 and 2 mm. This parameter is often discussed in conjunction with the determination of the real accuracy of measurements at very short distances (5–50 m) because it is generally known that this accuracy cannot be increased by simply repeating the measurement because a considerable part of the error is systematic. This article describes the detailed testing of electronic distance meters to determine the absolute size of their systematic errors, their stability over time, their repeatability and the real accuracy of their distance measurement. Twenty instruments (total stations) have been tested, and more than 60,000 distances in total were measured to determine the accuracy and precision parameters of the distance meters. Based on the experiments’ results, calibration procedures were designed, including a special correction function for each instrument, whose usage reduces the standard deviation of the measurement of distance by at least 50%. PMID:26258777

Suppression of Systematic Errors of Electronic Distance Meters for Measurement of Short Distances.

PubMed

Braun, Jaroslav; Štroner, Martin; Urban, Rudolf; Dvoček, Filip

2015-08-06

In modern industrial geodesy, high demands are placed on the final accuracy, with expectations currently falling below 1 mm. The measurement methodology and surveying instruments used have to be adjusted to meet these stringent requirements, especially the total stations as the most often used instruments. A standard deviation of the measured distance is the accuracy parameter, commonly between 1 and 2 mm. This parameter is often discussed in conjunction with the determination of the real accuracy of measurements at very short distances (5-50 m) because it is generally known that this accuracy cannot be increased by simply repeating the measurement because a considerable part of the error is systematic. This article describes the detailed testing of electronic distance meters to determine the absolute size of their systematic errors, their stability over time, their repeatability and the real accuracy of their distance measurement. Twenty instruments (total stations) have been tested, and more than 60,000 distances in total were measured to determine the accuracy and precision parameters of the distance meters. Based on the experiments' results, calibration procedures were designed, including a special correction function for each instrument, whose usage reduces the standard deviation of the measurement of distance by at least 50%.

Examination of Different Item Response Theory Models on Tests Composed of Testlets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kogar, Esin Yilmaz; Kelecioglu, Hülya

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research is to first estimate the item and ability parameters and the standard error values related to those parameters obtained from Unidimensional Item Response Theory (UIRT), bifactor (BIF) and Testlet Response Theory models (TRT) in the tests including testlets, when the number of testlets, number of independent items, and…

Constitutive error based parameter estimation technique for plate structures using free vibration signatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guchhait, Shyamal; Banerjee, Biswanath

2018-04-01

In this paper, a variant of constitutive equation error based material parameter estimation procedure for linear elastic plates is developed from partially measured free vibration sig-natures. It has been reported in many research articles that the mode shape curvatures are much more sensitive compared to mode shape themselves to localize inhomogeneity. Complying with this idea, an identification procedure is framed as an optimization problem where the proposed cost function measures the error in constitutive relation due to incompatible curvature/strain and moment/stress fields. Unlike standard constitutive equation error based procedure wherein a solution of a couple system is unavoidable in each iteration, we generate these incompatible fields via two linear solves. A simple, yet effective, penalty based approach is followed to incorporate measured data. The penalization parameter not only helps in incorporating corrupted measurement data weakly but also acts as a regularizer against the ill-posedness of the inverse problem. Explicit linear update formulas are then developed for anisotropic linear elastic material. Numerical examples are provided to show the applicability of the proposed technique. Finally, an experimental validation is also provided.

Effect of Random Circuit Fabrication Errors on Small Signal Gain and Phase in Helix Traveling Wave Tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pengvanich, P.; Chernin, D. P.; Lau, Y. Y.; Luginsland, J. W.; Gilgenbach, R. M.

2007-11-01

Motivated by the current interest in mm-wave and THz sources, which use miniature, difficult-to-fabricate circuit components, we evaluate the statistical effects of random fabrication errors on a helix traveling wave tube amplifier's small signal characteristics. The small signal theory is treated in a continuum model in which the electron beam is assumed to be monoenergetic, and axially symmetric about the helix axis. Perturbations that vary randomly along the beam axis are introduced in the dimensionless Pierce parameters b, the beam-wave velocity mismatch, C, the gain parameter, and d, the cold tube circuit loss. Our study shows, as expected, that perturbation in b dominates the other two. The extensive numerical data have been confirmed by our analytic theory. They show in particular that the standard deviation of the output phase is linearly proportional to standard deviation of the individual perturbations in b, C, and d. Simple formulas have been derived which yield the output phase variations in terms of the statistical random manufacturing errors. This work was supported by AFOSR and by ONR.

A partial least squares based spectrum normalization method for uncertainty reduction for laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiongwei; Wang, Zhe; Lui, Siu-Lung; Fu, Yangting; Li, Zheng; Liu, Jianming; Ni, Weidou

2013-10-01

A bottleneck of the wide commercial application of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technology is its relatively high measurement uncertainty. A partial least squares (PLS) based normalization method was proposed to improve pulse-to-pulse measurement precision for LIBS based on our previous spectrum standardization method. The proposed model utilized multi-line spectral information of the measured element and characterized the signal fluctuations due to the variation of plasma characteristic parameters (plasma temperature, electron number density, and total number density) for signal uncertainty reduction. The model was validated by the application of copper concentration prediction in 29 brass alloy samples. The results demonstrated an improvement on both measurement precision and accuracy over the generally applied normalization as well as our previously proposed simplified spectrum standardization method. The average relative standard deviation (RSD), average of the standard error (error bar), the coefficient of determination (R2), the root-mean-square error of prediction (RMSEP), and average value of the maximum relative error (MRE) were 1.80%, 0.23%, 0.992, 1.30%, and 5.23%, respectively, while those for the generally applied spectral area normalization were 3.72%, 0.71%, 0.973, 1.98%, and 14.92%, respectively.

Incorporating Measurement Error from Modeled Air Pollution Exposures into Epidemiological Analyses.

PubMed

Samoli, Evangelia; Butland, Barbara K

2017-12-01

Outdoor air pollution exposures used in epidemiological studies are commonly predicted from spatiotemporal models incorporating limited measurements, temporal factors, geographic information system variables, and/or satellite data. Measurement error in these exposure estimates leads to imprecise estimation of health effects and their standard errors. We reviewed methods for measurement error correction that have been applied in epidemiological studies that use model-derived air pollution data. We identified seven cohort studies and one panel study that have employed measurement error correction methods. These methods included regression calibration, risk set regression calibration, regression calibration with instrumental variables, the simulation extrapolation approach (SIMEX), and methods under the non-parametric or parameter bootstrap. Corrections resulted in small increases in the absolute magnitude of the health effect estimate and its standard error under most scenarios. Limited application of measurement error correction methods in air pollution studies may be attributed to the absence of exposure validation data and the methodological complexity of the proposed methods. Future epidemiological studies should consider in their design phase the requirements for the measurement error correction method to be later applied, while methodological advances are needed under the multi-pollutants setting.

DC servomechanism parameter identification: a Closed Loop Input Error approach.

PubMed

Garrido, Ruben; Miranda, Roger

2012-01-01

This paper presents a Closed Loop Input Error (CLIE) approach for on-line parametric estimation of a continuous-time model of a DC servomechanism functioning in closed loop. A standard Proportional Derivative (PD) position controller stabilizes the loop without requiring knowledge on the servomechanism parameters. The analysis of the identification algorithm takes into account the control law employed for closing the loop. The model contains four parameters that depend on the servo inertia, viscous, and Coulomb friction as well as on a constant disturbance. Lyapunov stability theory permits assessing boundedness of the signals associated to the identification algorithm. Experiments on a laboratory prototype allows evaluating the performance of the approach. Copyright © 2011 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compensation of kinematic geometric parameters error and comparative study of accuracy testing for robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Liang; Shi, Guangming; Guan, Weibin; Zhong, Yuansheng; Li, Jin

2014-12-01

Geometric error is the main error of the industrial robot, and it plays a more significantly important fact than other error facts for robot. The compensation model of kinematic error is proposed in this article. Many methods can be used to test the robot accuracy, therefore, how to compare which method is better one. In this article, a method is used to compare two methods for robot accuracy testing. It used Laser Tracker System (LTS) and Three Coordinate Measuring instrument (TCM) to test the robot accuracy according to standard. According to the compensation result, it gets the better method which can improve the robot accuracy apparently.

Extending the Solvation-Layer Interface Condition Continum Electrostatic Model to a Linearized Poisson-Boltzmann Solvent.

PubMed

Molavi Tabrizi, Amirhossein; Goossens, Spencer; Mehdizadeh Rahimi, Ali; Cooper, Christopher D; Knepley, Matthew G; Bardhan, Jaydeep P

2017-06-13

We extend the linearized Poisson-Boltzmann (LPB) continuum electrostatic model for molecular solvation to address charge-hydration asymmetry. Our new solvation-layer interface condition (SLIC)/LPB corrects for first-shell response by perturbing the traditional continuum-theory interface conditions at the protein-solvent and the Stern-layer interfaces. We also present a GPU-accelerated treecode implementation capable of simulating large proteins, and our results demonstrate that the new model exhibits significant accuracy improvements over traditional LPB models, while reducing the number of fitting parameters from dozens (atomic radii) to just five parameters, which have physical meanings related to first-shell water behavior at an uncharged interface. In particular, atom radii in the SLIC model are not optimized but uniformly scaled from their Lennard-Jones radii. Compared to explicit-solvent free-energy calculations of individual atoms in small molecules, SLIC/LPB is significantly more accurate than standard parametrizations (RMS error 0.55 kcal/mol for SLIC, compared to RMS error of 3.05 kcal/mol for standard LPB). On parametrizing the electrostatic model with a simple nonpolar component for total molecular solvation free energies, our model predicts octanol/water transfer free energies with an RMS error 1.07 kcal/mol. A more detailed assessment illustrates that standard continuum electrostatic models reproduce total charging free energies via a compensation of significant errors in atomic self-energies; this finding offers a window into improving the accuracy of Generalized-Born theories and other coarse-grained models. Most remarkably, the SLIC model also reproduces positive charging free energies for atoms in hydrophobic groups, whereas standard PB models are unable to generate positive charging free energies regardless of the parametrized radii. The GPU-accelerated solver is freely available online, as is a MATLAB implementation.

Task-oriented comparison of power spectral density estimation methods for quantifying acoustic attenuation in diagnostic ultrasound using a reference phantom method.

PubMed

Rosado-Mendez, Ivan M; Nam, Kibo; Hall, Timothy J; Zagzebski, James A

2013-07-01

Reported here is a phantom-based comparison of methods for determining the power spectral density (PSD) of ultrasound backscattered signals. Those power spectral density values are then used to estimate parameters describing α(f), the frequency dependence of the acoustic attenuation coefficient. Phantoms were scanned with a clinical system equipped with a research interface to obtain radiofrequency echo data. Attenuation, modeled as a power law α(f)= α0 f (β), was estimated using a reference phantom method. The power spectral density was estimated using the short-time Fourier transform (STFT), Welch's periodogram, and Thomson's multitaper technique, and performance was analyzed when limiting the size of the parameter-estimation region. Errors were quantified by the bias and standard deviation of the α0 and β estimates, and by the overall power-law fit error (FE). For parameter estimation regions larger than ~34 pulse lengths (~1 cm for this experiment), an overall power-law FE of 4% was achieved with all spectral estimation methods. With smaller parameter estimation regions as in parametric image formation, the bias and standard deviation of the α0 and β estimates depended on the size of the parameter estimation region. Here, the multitaper method reduced the standard deviation of the α0 and β estimates compared with those using the other techniques. The results provide guidance for choosing methods for estimating the power spectral density in quantitative ultrasound methods.

Robust ridge regression estimators for nonlinear models with applications to high throughput screening assay data.

PubMed

Lim, Changwon

2015-03-30

Nonlinear regression is often used to evaluate the toxicity of a chemical or a drug by fitting data from a dose-response study. Toxicologists and pharmacologists may draw a conclusion about whether a chemical is toxic by testing the significance of the estimated parameters. However, sometimes the null hypothesis cannot be rejected even though the fit is quite good. One possible reason for such cases is that the estimated standard errors of the parameter estimates are extremely large. In this paper, we propose robust ridge regression estimation procedures for nonlinear models to solve this problem. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated; in particular, their mean squared errors are derived. The performances of the proposed estimators are compared with several standard estimators using simulation studies. The proposed methodology is also illustrated using high throughput screening assay data obtained from the National Toxicology Program. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SU-E-T-144: Effective Analysis of VMAT QA Generated Trajectory Log Files for Medical Accelerator Predictive Maintenance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Able, CM; Baydush, AH; Nguyen, C

Purpose: To determine the effectiveness of SPC analysis for a model predictive maintenance process that uses accelerator generated parameter and performance data contained in trajectory log files. Methods: Each trajectory file is decoded and a total of 131 axes positions are recorded (collimator jaw position, gantry angle, each MLC, etc.). This raw data is processed and either axis positions are extracted at critical points during the delivery or positional change over time is used to determine axis velocity. The focus of our analysis is the accuracy, reproducibility and fidelity of each axis. A reference positional trace of the gantry andmore » each MLC is used as a motion baseline for cross correlation (CC) analysis. A total of 494 parameters (482 MLC related) were analyzed using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) charts. The chart limits were calculated using a hybrid technique that included the use of the standard 3σ limits and parameter/system specifications. Synthetic errors/changes were introduced to determine the initial effectiveness of I/MR charts in detecting relevant changes in operating parameters. The magnitude of the synthetic errors/changes was based on: TG-142 and published analysis of VMAT delivery accuracy. Results: All errors introduced were detected. Synthetic positional errors of 2mm for collimator jaw and MLC carriage exceeded the chart limits. Gantry speed and each MLC speed are analyzed at two different points in the delivery. Simulated Gantry speed error (0.2 deg/sec) and MLC speed error (0.1 cm/sec) exceeded the speed chart limits. Gantry position error of 0.2 deg was detected by the CC maximum value charts. The MLC position error of 0.1 cm was detected by the CC maximum value location charts for every MLC. Conclusion: SPC I/MR evaluation of trajectory log file parameters may be effective in providing an early warning of performance degradation or component failure for medical accelerator systems.« less

Error analysis of mechanical system and wavelength calibration of monochromator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fudong; Chen, Chen; Liu, Jie; Wang, Zhihong

2018-02-01

This study focuses on improving the accuracy of a grating monochromator on the basis of the grating diffraction equation in combination with an analysis of the mechanical transmission relationship between the grating, the sine bar, and the screw of the scanning mechanism. First, the relationship between the mechanical error in the monochromator with the sine drive and the wavelength error is analyzed. Second, a mathematical model of the wavelength error and mechanical error is developed, and an accurate wavelength calibration method based on the sine bar's length adjustment and error compensation is proposed. Based on the mathematical model and calibration method, experiments using a standard light source with known spectral lines and a pre-adjusted sine bar length are conducted. The model parameter equations are solved, and subsequent parameter optimization simulations are performed to determine the optimal length ratio. Lastly, the length of the sine bar is adjusted. The experimental results indicate that the wavelength accuracy is ±0.3 nm, which is better than the original accuracy of ±2.6 nm. The results confirm the validity of the error analysis of the mechanical system of the monochromator as well as the validity of the calibration method.

Optimal error functional for parameter identification in anisotropic finite strain elasto-plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shutov, A. V.; Kaygorodtseva, A. A.; Dranishnikov, N. S.

2017-10-01

A problem of parameter identification for a model of finite strain elasto-plasticity is discussed. The utilized phenomenological material model accounts for nonlinear isotropic and kinematic hardening; the model kinematics is described by a nested multiplicative split of the deformation gradient. A hierarchy of optimization problems is considered. First, following the standard procedure, the material parameters are identified through minimization of a certain least square error functional. Next, the focus is placed on finding optimal weighting coefficients which enter the error functional. Toward that end, a stochastic noise with systematic and non-systematic components is introduced to the available measurement results; a superordinate optimization problem seeks to minimize the sensitivity of the resulting material parameters to the introduced noise. The advantage of this approach is that no additional experiments are required; it also provides an insight into the robustness of the identification procedure. As an example, experimental data for the steel 42CrMo4 are considered and a set of weighting coefficients is found, which is optimal in a certain class.

A Comparison between Discrimination Indices and Item-Response Theory Using the Rasch Model in a Clinical Course Written Examination of a Medical School.

PubMed

Park, Jong Cook; Kim, Kwang Sig

2012-03-01

The reliability of test is determined by each items' characteristics. Item analysis is achieved by classical test theory and item response theory. The purpose of the study was to compare the discrimination indices with item response theory using the Rasch model. Thirty-one 4th-year medical school students participated in the clinical course written examination, which included 22 A-type items and 3 R-type items. Point biserial correlation coefficient (C(pbs)) was compared to method of extreme group (D), biserial correlation coefficient (C(bs)), item-total correlation coefficient (C(it)), and corrected item-total correlation coeffcient (C(cit)). Rasch model was applied to estimate item difficulty and examinee's ability and to calculate item fit statistics using joint maximum likelihood. Explanatory power (r2) of Cpbs is decreased in the following order: C(cit) (1.00), C(it) (0.99), C(bs) (0.94), and D (0.45). The ranges of difficulty logit and standard error and ability logit and standard error were -0.82 to 0.80 and 0.37 to 0.76, -3.69 to 3.19 and 0.45 to 1.03, respectively. Item 9 and 23 have outfit > or =1.3. Student 1, 5, 7, 18, 26, 30, and 32 have fit > or =1.3. C(pbs), C(cit), and C(it) are good discrimination parameters. Rasch model can estimate item difficulty parameter and examinee's ability parameter with standard error. The fit statistics can identify bad items and unpredictable examinee's responses.

Demonstrating the robustness of population surveillance data: implications of error rates on demographic and mortality estimates.

PubMed

Fottrell, Edward; Byass, Peter; Berhane, Yemane

2008-03-25

As in any measurement process, a certain amount of error may be expected in routine population surveillance operations such as those in demographic surveillance sites (DSSs). Vital events are likely to be missed and errors made no matter what method of data capture is used or what quality control procedures are in place. The extent to which random errors in large, longitudinal datasets affect overall health and demographic profiles has important implications for the role of DSSs as platforms for public health research and clinical trials. Such knowledge is also of particular importance if the outputs of DSSs are to be extrapolated and aggregated with realistic margins of error and validity. This study uses the first 10-year dataset from the Butajira Rural Health Project (BRHP) DSS, Ethiopia, covering approximately 336,000 person-years of data. Simple programmes were written to introduce random errors and omissions into new versions of the definitive 10-year Butajira dataset. Key parameters of sex, age, death, literacy and roof material (an indicator of poverty) were selected for the introduction of errors based on their obvious importance in demographic and health surveillance and their established significant associations with mortality. Defining the original 10-year dataset as the 'gold standard' for the purposes of this investigation, population, age and sex compositions and Poisson regression models of mortality rate ratios were compared between each of the intentionally erroneous datasets and the original 'gold standard' 10-year data. The composition of the Butajira population was well represented despite introducing random errors, and differences between population pyramids based on the derived datasets were subtle. Regression analyses of well-established mortality risk factors were largely unaffected even by relatively high levels of random errors in the data. The low sensitivity of parameter estimates and regression analyses to significant amounts of randomly introduced errors indicates a high level of robustness of the dataset. This apparent inertia of population parameter estimates to simulated errors is largely due to the size of the dataset. Tolerable margins of random error in DSS data may exceed 20%. While this is not an argument in favour of poor quality data, reducing the time and valuable resources spent on detecting and correcting random errors in routine DSS operations may be justifiable as the returns from such procedures diminish with increasing overall accuracy. The money and effort currently spent on endlessly correcting DSS datasets would perhaps be better spent on increasing the surveillance population size and geographic spread of DSSs and analysing and disseminating research findings.

Performance evaluation of spectral vegetation indices using a statistical sensitivity function

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Peters, Albert J.

2007-01-01

A great number of spectral vegetation indices (VIs) have been developed to estimate biophysical parameters of vegetation. Traditional techniques for evaluating the performance of VIs are regression-based statistics, such as the coefficient of determination and root mean square error. These statistics, however, are not capable of quantifying the detailed relationship between VIs and biophysical parameters because the sensitivity of a VI is usually a function of the biophysical parameter instead of a constant. To better quantify this relationship, we developed a “sensitivity function” for measuring the sensitivity of a VI to biophysical parameters. The sensitivity function is defined as the first derivative of the regression function, divided by the standard error of the dependent variable prediction. The function elucidates the change in sensitivity over the range of the biophysical parameter. The Student's t- or z-statistic can be used to test the significance of VI sensitivity. Additionally, we developed a “relative sensitivity function” that compares the sensitivities of two VIs when the biophysical parameters are unavailable.

Absolute Isotopic Abundance Ratios and the Accuracy of Δ47 Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daeron, M.; Blamart, D.; Peral, M.; Affek, H. P.

2016-12-01

Conversion from raw IRMS data to clumped isotope anomalies in CO2 (Δ47) relies on four external parameters: the (13C/12C) ratio of VPDB, the (17O/16O) and (18O/16O) ratios of VSMOW (or VPDB-CO2), and the slope of the triple oxygen isotope line (λ). Here we investigate the influence that these isotopic parameters exert on measured Δ47 values, using real-world data corresponding to 7 months of measurements; simulations based on randomly generated data; precise comparisons between water-equilibrated CO2 samples and between carbonate standards believed to share quasi-identical Δ47 values; reprocessing of two carbonate calibration data sets with different slopes of Δ47 versus T. Using different sets of isotopic parameters generally produces systematic offsets as large as 0.04 ‰ in final Δ47 values. What's more, even using a single set of isotopic parameters can produce intra- and inter-laboratory discrepancies in final Δ47 values, if some of these parameters are inaccurate. Depending on the isotopic compositions of the standards used for conversion to "absolute" values, these errors should correlate strongly with either δ13C or δ18O, or more weakly with both. Based on measurements of samples expected to display identical Δ47 values, such as 25°C water-equilibrated CO2 with different carbon and oxygen isotope compositions, or high-temperature standards ETH-1 and ETH-2, we conclude that the isotopic parameters used so far in most clumped isotope studies produces large, systematic errors controlled by the relative bulk isotopic compositions of samples and standards, which should be one of the key factors responsible for current inter-laboratory discrepancies. By contrast, the isotopic parameters of Brand et al. [2010] appear to yield accurate Δ47 values regardless of bulk isotopic composition. References:Brand, Assonov and Coplen [2010] http://dx.doi.org/10.1351/PAC-REP-09-01-05

A bias correction for covariance estimators to improve inference with generalized estimating equations that use an unstructured correlation matrix.

PubMed

Westgate, Philip M

2013-07-20

Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) are routinely used for the marginal analysis of correlated data. The efficiency of GEE depends on how closely the working covariance structure resembles the true structure, and therefore accurate modeling of the working correlation of the data is important. A popular approach is the use of an unstructured working correlation matrix, as it is not as restrictive as simpler structures such as exchangeable and AR-1 and thus can theoretically improve efficiency. However, because of the potential for having to estimate a large number of correlation parameters, variances of regression parameter estimates can be larger than theoretically expected when utilizing the unstructured working correlation matrix. Therefore, standard error estimates can be negatively biased. To account for this additional finite-sample variability, we derive a bias correction that can be applied to typical estimators of the covariance matrix of parameter estimates. Via simulation and in application to a longitudinal study, we show that our proposed correction improves standard error estimation and statistical inference. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hourly global and diffuse radiation of Lagos, Nigeria-correlation with some atmospheric parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chendo, M.A.C.; Maduekwe, A.A.L.

1994-03-01

The influence of four climatic parameters on the hourly diffuse fraction in Lagos, Nigeria, has been studied. Using data for two years, new correlations were established. The standard error of the Liu and Jordan-type equation was reduced by 12.83% when solar elevation, ambient temperature, and relative humidity were used together as predictor variables for the entire data set. Ambient temperature and relative humidity proved to be very important variables for predicting the diffuse fraction of the solar radiation passing through the humid atmosphere of the coastal and tropic city of Lagos. Seasonal analysis carried out with the data showed improvementsmore » on the standard errors for the new seasonal correlations. In the case of the dry season, the improvement was 18.37%, whole for the wet season, this was 12.37%. Comparison with existing correlations showed that the performance of the one parameter model (namely K[sub t]), of Orgill and Hollands and Reindl, Beckman, and Duffie were very different from the Liu and Jordan-type model obtained for Lagos.« less

Evaluation of the 3dMDface system as a tool for soft tissue analysis.

PubMed

Hong, C; Choi, K; Kachroo, Y; Kwon, T; Nguyen, A; McComb, R; Moon, W

2017-06-01

To evaluate the accuracy of three-dimensional stereophotogrammetry by comparing values obtained from direct anthropometry and the 3dMDface system. To achieve a more comprehensive evaluation of the reliability of 3dMD, both linear and surface measurements were examined. UCLA Section of Orthodontics. Mannequin head as model for anthropometric measurements. Image acquisition and analysis were carried out on a mannequin head using 16 anthropometric landmarks and 21 measured parameters for linear and surface distances. 3D images using 3dMDface system were made at 0, 1 and 24 hours; 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks. Error magnitude statistics used include mean absolute difference, standard deviation of error, relative error magnitude and root mean square error. Intra-observer agreement for all measurements was attained. Overall mean errors were lower than 1.00 mm for both linear and surface parameter measurements, except in 5 of the 21 measurements. The three longest parameter distances showed increased variation compared to shorter distances. No systematic errors were observed for all performed paired t tests (P<.05). Agreement values between two observers ranged from 0.91 to 0.99. Measurements on a mannequin confirmed the accuracy of all landmarks and parameters analysed in this study using the 3dMDface system. Results indicated that 3dMDface system is an accurate tool for linear and surface measurements, with potentially broad-reaching applications in orthodontics, surgical treatment planning and treatment evaluation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tripp, John S.; Tcheng, Ping

1999-01-01

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Ensemble-based simultaneous state and parameter estimation for treatment of mesoscale model error: A real-data study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao-Ming; Zhang, Fuqing; Nielsen-Gammon, John W.

2010-04-01

This study explores the treatment of model error and uncertainties through simultaneous state and parameter estimation (SSPE) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in the simulation of a 2006 air pollution event over the greater Houston area during the Second Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS-II). Two parameters in the atmospheric boundary layer parameterization associated with large model sensitivities are combined with standard prognostic variables in an augmented state vector to be continuously updated through assimilation of wind profiler observations. It is found that forecasts of the atmosphere with EnKF/SSPE are markedly improved over experiments with no state and/or parameter estimation. More specifically, the EnKF/SSPE is shown to help alleviate a near-surface cold bias and to alter the momentum mixing in the boundary layer to produce more realistic wind profiles.

Use of Bayesian Inference in Crystallographic Structure Refinement via Full Diffraction Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Fancher, Chris M.; Han, Zhen; Levin, Igor; Page, Katharine; Reich, Brian J.; Smith, Ralph C.; Wilson, Alyson G.; Jones, Jacob L.

2016-01-01

A Bayesian inference method for refining crystallographic structures is presented. The distribution of model parameters is stochastically sampled using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Posterior probability distributions are constructed for all model parameters to properly quantify uncertainty by appropriately modeling the heteroskedasticity and correlation of the error structure. The proposed method is demonstrated by analyzing a National Institute of Standards and Technology silicon standard reference material. The results obtained by Bayesian inference are compared with those determined by Rietveld refinement. Posterior probability distributions of model parameters provide both estimates and uncertainties. The new method better estimates the true uncertainties in the model as compared to the Rietveld method. PMID:27550221

Ultraspectral sounding retrieval error budget and estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, William L.; Strow, Larrabee L.; Yang, Ping

2011-11-01

The ultraspectral infrared radiances obtained from satellite observations provide atmospheric, surface, and/or cloud information. The intent of the measurement of the thermodynamic state is the initialization of weather and climate models. Great effort has been given to retrieving and validating these atmospheric, surface, and/or cloud properties. Error Consistency Analysis Scheme (ECAS), through fast radiative transfer model (RTM) forward and inverse calculations, has been developed to estimate the error budget in terms of absolute and standard deviation of differences in both spectral radiance and retrieved geophysical parameter domains. The retrieval error is assessed through ECAS without assistance of other independent measurements such as radiosonde data. ECAS re-evaluates instrument random noise, and establishes the link between radiometric accuracy and retrieved geophysical parameter accuracy. ECAS can be applied to measurements of any ultraspectral instrument and any retrieval scheme with associated RTM. In this paper, ECAS is described and demonstration is made with the measurements of the METOP-A satellite Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI).

Ultraspectral Sounding Retrieval Error Budget and Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu; Smith, William L.; Strow, L. Larrabee; Yang, Ping

2011-01-01

The ultraspectral infrared radiances obtained from satellite observations provide atmospheric, surface, and/or cloud information. The intent of the measurement of the thermodynamic state is the initialization of weather and climate models. Great effort has been given to retrieving and validating these atmospheric, surface, and/or cloud properties. Error Consistency Analysis Scheme (ECAS), through fast radiative transfer model (RTM) forward and inverse calculations, has been developed to estimate the error budget in terms of absolute and standard deviation of differences in both spectral radiance and retrieved geophysical parameter domains. The retrieval error is assessed through ECAS without assistance of other independent measurements such as radiosonde data. ECAS re-evaluates instrument random noise, and establishes the link between radiometric accuracy and retrieved geophysical parameter accuracy. ECAS can be applied to measurements of any ultraspectral instrument and any retrieval scheme with associated RTM. In this paper, ECAS is described and demonstration is made with the measurements of the METOP-A satellite Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI)..

MASTER: a model to improve and standardize clinical breakpoints for antimicrobial susceptibility testing using forecast probabilities.

PubMed

Blöchliger, Nicolas; Keller, Peter M; Böttger, Erik C; Hombach, Michael

2017-09-01

The procedure for setting clinical breakpoints (CBPs) for antimicrobial susceptibility has been poorly standardized with respect to population data, pharmacokinetic parameters and clinical outcome. Tools to standardize CBP setting could result in improved antibiogram forecast probabilities. We propose a model to estimate probabilities for methodological categorization errors and defined zones of methodological uncertainty (ZMUs), i.e. ranges of zone diameters that cannot reliably be classified. The impact of ZMUs on methodological error rates was used for CBP optimization. The model distinguishes theoretical true inhibition zone diameters from observed diameters, which suffer from methodological variation. True diameter distributions are described with a normal mixture model. The model was fitted to observed inhibition zone diameters of clinical Escherichia coli strains. Repeated measurements for a quality control strain were used to quantify methodological variation. For 9 of 13 antibiotics analysed, our model predicted error rates of < 0.1% applying current EUCAST CBPs. Error rates were > 0.1% for ampicillin, cefoxitin, cefuroxime and amoxicillin/clavulanic acid. Increasing the susceptible CBP (cefoxitin) and introducing ZMUs (ampicillin, cefuroxime, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid) decreased error rates to < 0.1%. ZMUs contained low numbers of isolates for ampicillin and cefuroxime (3% and 6%), whereas the ZMU for amoxicillin/clavulanic acid contained 41% of all isolates and was considered not practical. We demonstrate that CBPs can be improved and standardized by minimizing methodological categorization error rates. ZMUs may be introduced if an intermediate zone is not appropriate for pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic or drug dosing reasons. Optimized CBPs will provide a standardized antibiotic susceptibility testing interpretation at a defined level of probability. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Statistical analysis of nonlinearly reconstructed near-infrared tomographic images: Part I--Theory and simulations.

PubMed

Pogue, Brian W; Song, Xiaomei; Tosteson, Tor D; McBride, Troy O; Jiang, Shudong; Paulsen, Keith D

2002-07-01

Near-infrared (NIR) diffuse tomography is an emerging method for imaging the interior of tissues to quantify concentrations of hemoglobin and exogenous chromophores non-invasively in vivo. It often exploits an optical diffusion model-based image reconstruction algorithm to estimate spatial property values from measurements of the light flux at the surface of the tissue. In this study, mean-squared error (MSE) over the image is used to evaluate methods for regularizing the ill-posed inverse image reconstruction problem in NIR tomography. Estimates of image bias and image standard deviation were calculated based upon 100 repeated reconstructions of a test image with randomly distributed noise added to the light flux measurements. It was observed that the bias error dominates at high regularization parameter values while variance dominates as the algorithm is allowed to approach the optimal solution. This optimum does not necessarily correspond to the minimum projection error solution, but typically requires further iteration with a decreasing regularization parameter to reach the lowest image error. Increasing measurement noise causes a need to constrain the minimum regularization parameter to higher values in order to achieve a minimum in the overall image MSE.

Monitoring gait in multiple sclerosis with novel wearable motion sensors.

PubMed

Moon, Yaejin; McGinnis, Ryan S; Seagers, Kirsten; Motl, Robert W; Sheth, Nirav; Wright, John A; Ghaffari, Roozbeh; Sosnoff, Jacob J

2017-01-01

Mobility impairment is common in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) and there is a need to assess mobility in remote settings. Here, we apply a novel wireless, skin-mounted, and conformal inertial sensor (BioStampRC, MC10 Inc.) to examine gait characteristics of PwMS under controlled conditions. We determine the accuracy and precision of BioStampRC in measuring gait kinematics by comparing to contemporary research-grade measurement devices. A total of 45 PwMS, who presented with diverse walking impairment (Mild MS = 15, Moderate MS = 15, Severe MS = 15), and 15 healthy control subjects participated in the study. Participants completed a series of clinical walking tests. During the tests participants were instrumented with BioStampRC and MTx (Xsens, Inc.) sensors on their shanks, as well as an activity monitor GT3X (Actigraph, Inc.) on their non-dominant hip. Shank angular velocity was simultaneously measured with the inertial sensors. Step number and temporal gait parameters were calculated from the data recorded by each sensor. Visual inspection and the MTx served as the reference standards for computing the step number and temporal parameters, respectively. Accuracy (error) and precision (variance of error) was assessed based on absolute and relative metrics. Temporal parameters were compared across groups using ANOVA. Mean accuracy±precision for the BioStampRC was 2±2 steps error for step number, 6±9ms error for stride time and 6±7ms error for step time (0.6-2.6% relative error). Swing time had the least accuracy±precision (25±19ms error, 5±4% relative error) among the parameters. GT3X had the least accuracy±precision (8±14% relative error) in step number estimate among the devices. Both MTx and BioStampRC detected significantly distinct gait characteristics between PwMS with different disability levels (p<0.01). BioStampRC sensors accurately and precisely measure gait parameters in PwMS across diverse walking impairment levels and detected differences in gait characteristics by disability level in PwMS. This technology has the potential to provide granular monitoring of gait both inside and outside the clinic.

In Vivo Precision of Digital Topological Skeletonization Based Individual Trabecula Segmentation (ITS) Analysis of Trabecular Microstructure at the Distal Radius and Tibia by HR-pQCT.

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Zhang, Zhendong; Wang, Ji; Yu, Y Eric; Liu, Xiaowei Sherry; Nishiyama, Kyle K; Rubin, Mishaela R; Shane, Elizabeth; Bilezikian, John P; Guo, X Edward

2016-06-01

Trabecular plate and rod microstructure plays a dominant role in the apparent mechanical properties of trabecular bone. With high-resolution computed tomography (CT) images, digital topological analysis (DTA) including skeletonization and topological classification was applied to transform the trabecular three-dimensional (3D) network into surface and curve skeletons. Using the DTA-based topological analysis and a new reconstruction/recovery scheme, individual trabecula segmentation (ITS) was developed to segment individual trabecular plates and rods and quantify the trabecular plate- and rod-related morphological parameters. High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) is an emerging in vivo imaging technique to visualize 3D bone microstructure. Based on HR-pQCT images, ITS was applied to various HR-pQCT datasets to examine trabecular plate- and rod-related microstructure and has demonstrated great potential in cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical applications. However, the reproducibility of ITS has not been fully determined. The aim of the current study is to quantify the precision errors of ITS plate-rod microstructural parameters. In addition, we utilized three different frequently used contour techniques to separate trabecular and cortical bone and to evaluate their effect on ITS measurements. Overall, good reproducibility was found for the standard HR-pQCT parameters with precision errors for volumetric BMD and bone size between 0.2%-2.0%, and trabecular bone microstructure between 4.9%-6.7% at the radius and tibia. High reproducibility was also achieved for ITS measurements using all three different contour techniques. For example, using automatic contour technology, low precision errors were found for plate and rod trabecular number (pTb.N, rTb.N, 0.9% and 3.6%), plate and rod trabecular thickness (pTb.Th, rTb.Th, 0.6% and 1.7%), plate trabecular surface (pTb.S, 3.4%), rod trabecular length (rTb.ℓ, 0.8%), and plate-plate junction density (P-P Junc.D, 2.3%) at the tibia. The precision errors at the radius were similar to those at the tibia. In addition, precision errors were affected by the contour technique. At the tibia, precision error by the manual contour method was significantly different from automatic and standard contour methods for pTb.N, rTb.N and rTb.Th. Precision error using the manual contour method was also significantly different from the standard contour method for rod trabecular number (rTb.N), rod trabecular thickness (rTb.Th), rod-rod and plate-rod junction densities (R-R Junc.D and P-R Junc.D) at the tibia. At the radius, the precision error was similar between the three different contour methods. Image quality was also found to significantly affect the ITS reproducibility. We concluded that ITS parameters are highly reproducible, giving assurance that future cross-sectional and longitudinal clinical HR-pQCT studies are feasible in the context of limited sample sizes.

Combined proportional and additive residual error models in population pharmacokinetic modelling.

PubMed

Proost, Johannes H

2017-11-15

In pharmacokinetic modelling, a combined proportional and additive residual error model is often preferred over a proportional or additive residual error model. Different approaches have been proposed, but a comparison between approaches is still lacking. The theoretical background of the methods is described. Method VAR assumes that the variance of the residual error is the sum of the statistically independent proportional and additive components; this method can be coded in three ways. Method SD assumes that the standard deviation of the residual error is the sum of the proportional and additive components. Using datasets from literature and simulations based on these datasets, the methods are compared using NONMEM. The different coding of methods VAR yield identical results. Using method SD, the values of the parameters describing residual error are lower than for method VAR, but the values of the structural parameters and their inter-individual variability are hardly affected by the choice of the method. Both methods are valid approaches in combined proportional and additive residual error modelling, and selection may be based on OFV. When the result of an analysis is used for simulation purposes, it is essential that the simulation tool uses the same method as used during analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calculating the sensitivity and robustness of binding free energy calculations to force field parameters

PubMed Central

Rocklin, Gabriel J.; Mobley, David L.; Dill, Ken A.

2013-01-01

Binding free energy calculations offer a thermodynamically rigorous method to compute protein-ligand binding, and they depend on empirical force fields with hundreds of parameters. We examined the sensitivity of computed binding free energies to the ligand’s electrostatic and van der Waals parameters. Dielectric screening and cancellation of effects between ligand-protein and ligand-solvent interactions reduce the parameter sensitivity of binding affinity by 65%, compared with interaction strengths computed in the gas-phase. However, multiple changes to parameters combine additively on average, which can lead to large changes in overall affinity from many small changes to parameters. Using these results, we estimate that random, uncorrelated errors in force field nonbonded parameters must be smaller than 0.02 e per charge, 0.06 Å per radius, and 0.01 kcal/mol per well depth in order to obtain 68% (one standard deviation) confidence that a computed affinity for a moderately-sized lead compound will fall within 1 kcal/mol of the true affinity, if these are the only sources of error considered. PMID:24015114

Optimal solutions for a bio mathematical model for the evolution of smoking habit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikander, Waseem; Khan, Umar; Ahmed, Naveed; Mohyud-Din, Syed Tauseef

In this study, we apply Variation of Parameter Method (VPM) coupled with an auxiliary parameter to obtain the approximate solutions for the epidemic model for the evolution of smoking habit in a constant population. Convergence of the developed algorithm, namely VPM with an auxiliary parameter is studied. Furthermore, a simple way is considered for obtaining an optimal value of auxiliary parameter via minimizing the total residual error over the domain of problem. Comparison of the obtained results with standard VPM shows that an auxiliary parameter is very feasible and reliable in controlling the convergence of approximate solutions.

Bootstrap Methods: A Very Leisurely Look.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkle, Dennis E.; Winstead, Wayland H.

The Bootstrap method, a computer-intensive statistical method of estimation, is illustrated using a simple and efficient Statistical Analysis System (SAS) routine. The utility of the method for generating unknown parameters, including standard errors for simple statistics, regression coefficients, discriminant function coefficients, and factor…

42 CFR 493.1256 - Standard: Control procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... for having control procedures that monitor the accuracy and precision of the complete analytic process..., include two control materials, including one that is capable of detecting errors in the extraction process... control materials having previously determined statistical parameters. (e) For reagent, media, and supply...

Multilevel Modeling with Correlated Effects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Jee-Seon; Frees, Edward W.

2007-01-01

When there exist omitted effects, measurement error, and/or simultaneity in multilevel models, explanatory variables may be correlated with random components, and standard estimation methods do not provide consistent estimates of model parameters. This paper introduces estimators that are consistent under such conditions. By employing generalized…

Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility-in-mean model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using generalized hyperbolic skew Student’s t-distribution*

PubMed Central

Leão, William L.; Chen, Ming-Hui

2017-01-01

A stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors using the generalized hyperbolic skew Student-t (GHST) distribution provides a robust alternative to the parameter estimation for daily stock returns in the absence of normality. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. The deviance information, the Bayesian predictive information and the log-predictive score criterion are used to assess the fit of the proposed model. The proposed method is applied to an analysis of the daily stock return data from the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (S&P 500). The empirical results reveal that the stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors and GH-ST distribution leads to a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit for the S&P 500 index returns dataset over the usual normal model. PMID:29333210

Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility-in-mean model with leverage and asymmetrically heavy-tailed error using generalized hyperbolic skew Student's t-distribution.

PubMed

Leão, William L; Abanto-Valle, Carlos A; Chen, Ming-Hui

2017-01-01

A stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors using the generalized hyperbolic skew Student-t (GHST) distribution provides a robust alternative to the parameter estimation for daily stock returns in the absence of normality. An efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. The deviance information, the Bayesian predictive information and the log-predictive score criterion are used to assess the fit of the proposed model. The proposed method is applied to an analysis of the daily stock return data from the Standard & Poor's 500 index (S&P 500). The empirical results reveal that the stochastic volatility-in-mean model with correlated errors and GH-ST distribution leads to a significant improvement in the goodness-of-fit for the S&P 500 index returns dataset over the usual normal model.

Measurement of inclusive radiative B-meson decay B decaying to X(S) meson-gamma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan

Radiative decays of the B meson, B→ Xsgamma, proceed via virtual flavor changing neutral current processes that are sensitive to contributions from high mass scales, either within the Standard Model of electroweak interactions or beyond. In the Standard Model, these transitions are sensitive to the weak interactions of the top quark, and relatively robust predictions of the inclusive decay rate exist. Significant deviation from these predictions could be interpreted as indications for processes not included in the minimal Standard Model, like interactions of charged Higgs or SUSY particles. The analysis of the inclusive photon spectrum from B→ Xsgamma decays is rather challenging due to high backgrounds from photons emitted in the decay of mesons in B decays as well as e+e- annihilation to low mass quark and lepton pairs. Based on 88.5 million BB events collected by the BABAR detector, the photon spectrum above 1.9 GeV is presented. By comparison of the first and second moments of the photon spectrum with QCD predictions (calculated in the kinetic scheme), QCD parameters describing the bound state of the b quark in the B meson are extracted: mb=4.45+/-0.16 GeV/c2m2 p=0.65+/-0.29 GeV2 These parameters are useful input to non-perturbative QCD corrections to the semileptonic B decay rate and the determination of the CKM parameter Vub. Based on these parameters and heavy quark expansion, the full branching fraction is obtained as: BRB→X sgEg >1.6GeV=4.050.32 stat+/-0.38syst +/-0.29model x10-4. This result is in good agreement with previous measurements, the statistical and systematic errors are comparable. It is also in good agreement with the theoretical Standard Model predictions, and thus within the present errors there is no indication of any interactions not accounted for in the Standard Model. This finding implies strong constraints on physics beyond the Standard Model.

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on VLBI measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, R. N.; Lanyi, G. E.

1986-01-01

Calculations using a statistical model of water vapor fluctuations yield the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements. The statistical model arises from two primary assumptions: (1) the spatial structure of refractivity fluctuations can be closely approximated by elementary (Kolmogorov) turbulence theory, and (2) temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns which are moved over a site by the wind. The consequences of these assumptions are outlined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. For example, wet troposphere induced rms delays for Deep Space Network (DSN) VLBI at 20-deg elevation are about 3 cm of delay per observation, which is smaller, on the average, than other known error sources in the current DSN VLBI data set. At 20-deg elevation for 200-s time intervals, water vapor induces approximately 1.5 x 10 to the minus 13th power s/s in the Allan standard deviation of interferometric delay, which is a measure of the delay rate observable error. In contrast to the delay error, the delay rate measurement error is dominated by water vapor fluctuations. Water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are calculated. For the DSN, baseline length parameter errors due to water vapor fluctuations are in the range of 3 to 5 cm. The above physical assumptions also lead to a method for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation procedure, which is used to extract baseline and source information from the VLBI observables.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petiteau, Antoine; Babak, Stanislav; Sesana, Alberto

Gravitational wave (GW) signals from coalescing massive black hole (MBH) binaries could be used as standard sirens to measure cosmological parameters. The future space-based GW observatory Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) will detect up to a hundred of those events, providing very accurate measurements of their luminosity distances. To constrain the cosmological parameters, we also need to measure the redshift of the galaxy (or cluster of galaxies) hosting the merger. This requires the identification of a distinctive electromagnetic event associated with the binary coalescence. However, putative electromagnetic signatures may be too weak to be observed. Instead, we study here themore » possibility of constraining the cosmological parameters by enforcing statistical consistency between all the possible hosts detected within the measurement error box of a few dozen of low-redshift (z < 3) events. We construct MBH populations using merger tree realizations of the dark matter hierarchy in a {Lambda}CDM universe, and we use data from the Millennium simulation to model the galaxy distribution in the LISA error box. We show that, assuming that all the other cosmological parameters are known, the parameter w describing the dark energy equation of state can be constrained to a 4%-8% level (2{sigma} error), competitive with current uncertainties obtained by type Ia supernovae measurements, providing an independent test of our cosmological model.« less

Estimation of regression laws for ground motion parameters using as case of study the Amatrice earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiberi, Lara; Costa, Giovanni

2017-04-01

The possibility to directly associate the damages to the ground motion parameters is always a great challenge, in particular for civil protections. Indeed a ground motion parameter, estimated in near real time that can express the damages occurred after an earthquake, is fundamental to arrange the first assistance after an event. The aim of this work is to contribute to the estimation of the ground motion parameter that better describes the observed intensity, immediately after an event. This can be done calculating for each ground motion parameter estimated in a near real time mode a regression law which correlates the above-mentioned parameter to the observed macro-seismic intensity. This estimation is done collecting high quality accelerometric data in near field, filtering them at different frequency steps. The regression laws are calculated using two different techniques: the non linear least-squares (NLLS) Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm and the orthogonal distance methodology (ODR). The limits of the first methodology are the needed of initial values for the parameters a and b (set 1.0 in this study), and the constraint that the independent variable must be known with greater accuracy than the dependent variable. While the second algorithm is based on the estimation of the errors perpendicular to the line, rather than just vertically. The vertical errors are just the errors in the 'y' direction, so only for the dependent variable whereas the perpendicular errors take into account errors for both the variables, the dependent and the independent. This makes possible also to directly invert the relation, so the a and b values can be used also to express the gmps as function of I. For each law the standard deviation and R2 value are estimated in order to test the quality and the reliability of the found relation. The Amatrice earthquake of 24th August of 2016 is used as case of study to test the goodness of the calculated regression laws.

A novel approach for calculating shelf life of minimally processed vegetables.

PubMed

Corbo, Maria Rosaria; Del Nobile, Matteo Alessandro; Sinigaglia, Milena

2006-01-15

Shelf life of minimally processed vegetables is often calculated by using the kinetic parameters of Gompertz equation as modified by Zwietering et al. [Zwietering, M.H., Jongenburger, F.M., Roumbouts, M., van't Riet, K., 1990. Modelling of the bacterial growth curve. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 56, 1875-1881.] taking 5x10(7) CFU/g as the maximum acceptable contamination value consistent with acceptable quality of these products. As this method does not allow estimation of the standard errors of the shelf life, in this paper the modified Gompertz equation was re-parameterized to directly include the shelf life as a fitting parameter among the Gompertz parameters. Being the shelf life a fitting parameter is possible to determine its confidence interval by fitting the proposed equation to the experimental data. The goodness-of-fit of this new equation was tested by using mesophilic bacteria cell loads from different minimally processed vegetables (packaged fresh-cut lettuce, fennel and shredded carrots) that differed for some process operations or for package atmosphere. The new equation was able to describe the data well and to estimate the shelf life. The results obtained emphasize the importance of using the standard errors for the shelf life value to show significant differences among the samples.

Computer simulation of storm runoff for three watersheds in Albuquerque, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutilla, R.L.; Veenhuis, J.E.

1994-01-01

Rainfall-runoff data from three watersheds were selected for calibration and verification of the U.S. Geological Survey's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model. The watersheds chosen are residentially developed. The conceptually based model uses an optimization process that adjusts selected parameters to achieve the best fit between measured and simulated runoff volumes and peak discharges. Three of these optimization parameters represent soil-moisture conditions, three represent infiltration, and one accounts for effective impervious area. Each watershed modeled was divided into overland-flow segments and channel segments. The overland-flow segments were further subdivided to reflect pervious and impervious areas. Each overland-flow and channel segment was assigned representative values of area, slope, percentage of imperviousness, and roughness coefficients. Rainfall-runoff data for each watershed were separated into two sets for use in calibration and verification. For model calibration, seven input parameters were optimized to attain a best fit of the data. For model verification, parameter values were set using values from model calibration. The standard error of estimate for calibration of runoff volumes ranged from 19 to 34 percent, and for peak discharge calibration ranged from 27 to 44 percent. The standard error of estimate for verification of runoff volumes ranged from 26 to 31 percent, and for peak discharge verification ranged from 31 to 43 percent.

Unified Computational Methods for Regression Analysis of Zero-Inflated and Bound-Inflated Data

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Simpson, Douglas

2010-01-01

Bounded data with excess observations at the boundary are common in many areas of application. Various individual cases of inflated mixture models have been studied in the literature for bound-inflated data, yet the computational methods have been developed separately for each type of model. In this article we use a common framework for computing these models, and expand the range of models for both discrete and semi-continuous data with point inflation at the lower boundary. The quasi-Newton and EM algorithms are adapted and compared for estimation of model parameters. The numerical Hessian and generalized Louis method are investigated as means for computing standard errors after optimization. Correlated data are included in this framework via generalized estimating equations. The estimation of parameters and effectiveness of standard errors are demonstrated through simulation and in the analysis of data from an ultrasound bioeffect study. The unified approach enables reliable computation for a wide class of inflated mixture models and comparison of competing models. PMID:20228950

Optimization of the reconstruction parameters in [123I]FP-CIT SPECT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niñerola-Baizán, Aida; Gallego, Judith; Cot, Albert; Aguiar, Pablo; Lomeña, Francisco; Pavía, Javier; Ros, Domènec

2018-04-01

The aim of this work was to obtain a set of parameters to be applied in [123I]FP-CIT SPECT reconstruction in order to minimize the error between standardized and true values of the specific uptake ratio (SUR) in dopaminergic neurotransmission SPECT studies. To this end, Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate a database of 1380 projection data-sets from 23 subjects, including normal cases and a variety of pathologies. Studies were reconstructed using filtered back projection (FBP) with attenuation correction and ordered subset expectation maximization (OSEM) with correction for different degradations (attenuation, scatter and PSF). Reconstruction parameters to be optimized were the cut-off frequency of a 2D Butterworth pre-filter in FBP, and the number of iterations and the full width at Half maximum of a 3D Gaussian post-filter in OSEM. Reconstructed images were quantified using regions of interest (ROIs) derived from Magnetic Resonance scans and from the Automated Anatomical Labeling map. Results were standardized by applying a simple linear regression line obtained from the entire patient dataset. Our findings show that we can obtain a set of optimal parameters for each reconstruction strategy. The accuracy of the standardized SUR increases when the reconstruction method includes more corrections. The use of generic ROIs instead of subject-specific ROIs adds significant inaccuracies. Thus, after reconstruction with OSEM and correction for all degradations, subject-specific ROIs led to errors between standardized and true SUR values in the range [‑0.5, +0.5] in 87% and 92% of the cases for caudate and putamen, respectively. These percentages dropped to 75% and 88% when the generic ROIs were used.

Reliability and measurement error of sagittal spinal motion parameters in 220 patients with chronic low back pain using a three-dimensional measurement device.

PubMed

Mieritz, Rune M; Bronfort, Gert; Jakobsen, Markus D; Aagaard, Per; Hartvigsen, Jan

2014-09-01

A basic premise for any instrument measuring spinal motion is that reliable outcomes can be obtained on a relevant sample under standardized conditions. The purpose of this study was to assess the overall reliability and measurement error of regional spinal sagittal plane motion in patients with chronic low back pain (LBP), and then to evaluate the influence of body mass index, examiner, gender, stability of pain, and pain distribution on reliability and measurement error. This study comprises a test-retest design separated by 7 to 14 days. The patient cohort consisted of 220 individuals with chronic LBP. Kinematics of the lumbar spine were sampled during standardized spinal extension-flexion testing using a 6-df instrumented spatial linkage system. Test-retest reliability and measurement error were evaluated using interclass correlation coefficients (ICC(1,1)) and Bland-Altman limits of agreement (LOAs). The overall test-retest reliability (ICC(1,1)) for various motion parameters ranged from 0.51 to 0.70, and relatively wide LOAs were observed for all parameters. Reliability measures in patient subgroups (ICC(1,1)) ranged between 0.34 and 0.77. In general, greater (ICC(1,1)) coefficients and smaller LOAs were found in subgroups with patients examined by the same examiner, patients with a stable pain level, patients with a body mass index less than below 30 kg/m(2), patients who were men, and patients in the Quebec Task Force classifications Group 1. This study shows that sagittal plane kinematic data from patients with chronic LBP may be sufficiently reliable in measurements of groups of patients. However, because of the large LOAs, this test procedure appears unusable at the individual patient level. Furthermore, reliability and measurement error varies substantially among subgroups of patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Audit Information to Adjust Parameter Estimates for Data Errors in Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Shepherd, Bryan E.; Shaw, Pamela A.; Dodd, Lori E.

2013-01-01

Background Audits are often performed to assess the quality of clinical trial data, but beyond detecting fraud or sloppiness, the audit data is generally ignored. In earlier work using data from a non-randomized study, Shepherd and Yu (2011) developed statistical methods to incorporate audit results into study estimates, and demonstrated that audit data could be used to eliminate bias. Purpose In this manuscript we examine the usefulness of audit-based error-correction methods in clinical trial settings where a continuous outcome is of primary interest. Methods We demonstrate the bias of multiple linear regression estimates in general settings with an outcome that may have errors and a set of covariates for which some may have errors and others, including treatment assignment, are recorded correctly for all subjects. We study this bias under different assumptions including independence between treatment assignment, covariates, and data errors (conceivable in a double-blinded randomized trial) and independence between treatment assignment and covariates but not data errors (possible in an unblinded randomized trial). We review moment-based estimators to incorporate the audit data and propose new multiple imputation estimators. The performance of estimators is studied in simulations. Results When treatment is randomized and unrelated to data errors, estimates of the treatment effect using the original error-prone data (i.e., ignoring the audit results) are unbiased. In this setting, both moment and multiple imputation estimators incorporating audit data are more variable than standard analyses using the original data. In contrast, in settings where treatment is randomized but correlated with data errors and in settings where treatment is not randomized, standard treatment effect estimates will be biased. And in all settings, parameter estimates for the original, error-prone covariates will be biased. Treatment and covariate effect estimates can be corrected by incorporating audit data using either the multiple imputation or moment-based approaches. Bias, precision, and coverage of confidence intervals improve as the audit size increases. Limitations The extent of bias and the performance of methods depend on the extent and nature of the error as well as the size of the audit. This work only considers methods for the linear model. Settings much different than those considered here need further study. Conclusions In randomized trials with continuous outcomes and treatment assignment independent of data errors, standard analyses of treatment effects will be unbiased and are recommended. However, if treatment assignment is correlated with data errors or other covariates, naive analyses may be biased. In these settings, and when covariate effects are of interest, approaches for incorporating audit results should be considered. PMID:22848072

Cosmographic analysis with Chebyshev polynomials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capozziello, Salvatore; D'Agostino, Rocco; Luongo, Orlando

2018-05-01

The limits of standard cosmography are here revised addressing the problem of error propagation during statistical analyses. To do so, we propose the use of Chebyshev polynomials to parametrize cosmic distances. In particular, we demonstrate that building up rational Chebyshev polynomials significantly reduces error propagations with respect to standard Taylor series. This technique provides unbiased estimations of the cosmographic parameters and performs significatively better than previous numerical approximations. To figure this out, we compare rational Chebyshev polynomials with Padé series. In addition, we theoretically evaluate the convergence radius of (1,1) Chebyshev rational polynomial and we compare it with the convergence radii of Taylor and Padé approximations. We thus focus on regions in which convergence of Chebyshev rational functions is better than standard approaches. With this recipe, as high-redshift data are employed, rational Chebyshev polynomials remain highly stable and enable one to derive highly accurate analytical approximations of Hubble's rate in terms of the cosmographic series. Finally, we check our theoretical predictions by setting bounds on cosmographic parameters through Monte Carlo integration techniques, based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We apply our technique to high-redshift cosmic data, using the Joint Light-curve Analysis supernovae sample and the most recent versions of Hubble parameter and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements. We find that cosmography with Taylor series fails to be predictive with the aforementioned data sets, while turns out to be much more stable using the Chebyshev approach.

Estimation of Handling Qualities Parameters of the Tu-144 Supersonic Transport Aircraft from Flight Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, Timothy J.; Batterson, James G. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Low order equivalent system (LOES) models for the Tu-144 supersonic transport aircraft were identified from flight test data. The mathematical models were given in terms of transfer functions with a time delay by the military standard MIL-STD-1797A, "Flying Qualities of Piloted Aircraft," and the handling qualities were predicted from the estimated transfer function coefficients. The coefficients and the time delay in the transfer functions were estimated using a nonlinear equation error formulation in the frequency domain. Flight test data from pitch, roll, and yaw frequency sweeps at various flight conditions were used for parameter estimation. Flight test results are presented in terms of the estimated parameter values, their standard errors, and output fits in the time domain. Data from doublet maneuvers at the same flight conditions were used to assess the predictive capabilities of the identified models. The identified transfer function models fit the measured data well and demonstrated good prediction capabilities. The Tu-144 was predicted to be between level 2 and 3 for all longitudinal maneuvers and level I for all lateral maneuvers. High estimates of the equivalent time delay in the transfer function model caused the poor longitudinal rating.

Custom map projections for regional groundwater models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuniansky, Eve L.

2017-01-01

For regional groundwater flow models (areas greater than 100,000 km2), improper choice of map projection parameters can result in model error for boundary conditions dependent on area (recharge or evapotranspiration simulated by application of a rate using cell area from model discretization) and length (rivers simulated with head-dependent flux boundary). Smaller model areas can use local map coordinates, such as State Plane (United States) or Universal Transverse Mercator (correct zone) without introducing large errors. Map projections vary in order to preserve one or more of the following properties: area, shape, distance (length), or direction. Numerous map projections are developed for different purposes as all four properties cannot be preserved simultaneously. Preservation of area and length are most critical for groundwater models. The Albers equal-area conic projection with custom standard parallels, selected by dividing the length north to south by 6 and selecting standard parallels 1/6th above or below the southern and northern extent, preserves both area and length for continental areas in mid latitudes oriented east-west. Custom map projection parameters can also minimize area and length error in non-ideal projections. Additionally, one must also use consistent vertical and horizontal datums for all geographic data. The generalized polygon for the Floridan aquifer system study area (306,247.59 km2) is used to provide quantitative examples of the effect of map projections on length and area with different projections and parameter choices. Use of improper map projection is one model construction problem easily avoided.

Quantitative application of sigma metrics in medical biochemistry.

PubMed

Nanda, Sunil Kumar; Ray, Lopamudra

2013-12-01

Laboratory errors are result of a poorly designed quality system in the laboratory. Six Sigma is an error reduction methodology that has been successfully applied at Motorola and General Electric. Sigma (σ) is the mathematical symbol for standard deviation (SD). Sigma methodology can be applied wherever an outcome of a process has to be measured. A poor outcome is counted as an error or defect. This is quantified as defects per million (DPM). A six sigma process is one in which 99.999666% of the products manufactured are statistically expected to be free of defects. Six sigma concentrates, on regulating a process to 6 SDs, represents 3.4 DPM (defects per million) opportunities. It can be inferred that as sigma increases, the consistency and steadiness of the test improves, thereby reducing the operating costs. We aimed to gauge performance of our laboratory parameters by sigma metrics. Evaluation of sigma metrics in interpretation of parameter performance in clinical biochemistry. The six month internal QC (October 2012 to march 2013) and EQAS (external quality assurance scheme) were extracted for the parameters-Glucose, Urea, Creatinine, Total Bilirubin, Total Protein, Albumin, Uric acid, Total Cholesterol, Triglycerides, Chloride, SGOT, SGPT and ALP. Coefficient of variance (CV) were calculated from internal QC for these parameters. Percentage bias for these parameters was calculated from the EQAS. Total allowable errors were followed as per Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) guidelines. Sigma metrics were calculated from CV, percentage bias and total allowable error for the above mentioned parameters. For parameters - Total bilirubin, uric acid, SGOT, SGPT and ALP, the sigma values were found to be more than 6. For parameters - glucose, Creatinine, triglycerides, urea, the sigma values were found to be between 3 to 6. For parameters - total protein, albumin, cholesterol and chloride, the sigma values were found to be less than 3. ALP was the best performer when it was gauzed on the sigma scale, with a sigma metrics value of 8.4 and chloride had the least sigma metrics value of 1.4.

Quality Measures in Pre-Analytical Phase of Tissue Processing: Understanding Its Value in Histopathology.

PubMed

Rao, Shalinee; Masilamani, Suresh; Sundaram, Sandhya; Duvuru, Prathiba; Swaminathan, Rajendiran

2016-01-01

Quality monitoring in histopathology unit is categorized into three phases, pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical, to cover various steps in the entire test cycle. Review of literature on quality evaluation studies pertaining to histopathology revealed that earlier reports were mainly focused on analytical aspects with limited studies on assessment of pre-analytical phase. Pre-analytical phase encompasses several processing steps and handling of specimen/sample by multiple individuals, thus allowing enough scope for errors. Due to its critical nature and limited studies in the past to assess quality in pre-analytical phase, it deserves more attention. This study was undertaken to analyse and assess the quality parameters in pre-analytical phase in a histopathology laboratory. This was a retrospective study done on pre-analytical parameters in histopathology laboratory of a tertiary care centre on 18,626 tissue specimens received in 34 months. Registers and records were checked for efficiency and errors for pre-analytical quality variables: specimen identification, specimen in appropriate fixatives, lost specimens, daily internal quality control performance on staining, performance in inter-laboratory quality assessment program {External quality assurance program (EQAS)} and evaluation of internal non-conformities (NC) for other errors. The study revealed incorrect specimen labelling in 0.04%, 0.01% and 0.01% in 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively. About 0.04%, 0.07% and 0.18% specimens were not sent in fixatives in 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively. There was no incidence of specimen lost. A total of 113 non-conformities were identified out of which 92.9% belonged to the pre-analytical phase. The predominant NC (any deviation from normal standard which may generate an error and result in compromising with quality standards) identified was wrong labelling of slides. Performance in EQAS for pre-analytical phase was satisfactory in 6 of 9 cycles. A low incidence of errors in pre-analytical phase implies that a satisfactory level of quality standards was being practiced with still scope for improvement.

Underestimation of Variance of Predicted Health Utilities Derived from Multiattribute Utility Instruments.

PubMed

Chan, Kelvin K W; Xie, Feng; Willan, Andrew R; Pullenayegum, Eleanor M

2017-04-01

Parameter uncertainty in value sets of multiattribute utility-based instruments (MAUIs) has received little attention previously. This false precision leads to underestimation of the uncertainty of the results of cost-effectiveness analyses. The aim of this study is to examine the use of multiple imputation as a method to account for this uncertainty of MAUI scoring algorithms. We fitted a Bayesian model with random effects for respondents and health states to the data from the original US EQ-5D-3L valuation study, thereby estimating the uncertainty in the EQ-5D-3L scoring algorithm. We applied these results to EQ-5D-3L data from the Commonwealth Fund (CWF) Survey for Sick Adults ( n = 3958), comparing the standard error of the estimated mean utility in the CWF population using the predictive distribution from the Bayesian mixed-effect model (i.e., incorporating parameter uncertainty in the value set) with the standard error of the estimated mean utilities based on multiple imputation and the standard error using the conventional approach of using MAUI (i.e., ignoring uncertainty in the value set). The mean utility in the CWF population based on the predictive distribution of the Bayesian model was 0.827 with a standard error (SE) of 0.011. When utilities were derived using the conventional approach, the estimated mean utility was 0.827 with an SE of 0.003, which is only 25% of the SE based on the full predictive distribution of the mixed-effect model. Using multiple imputation with 20 imputed sets, the mean utility was 0.828 with an SE of 0.011, which is similar to the SE based on the full predictive distribution. Ignoring uncertainty of the predicted health utilities derived from MAUIs could lead to substantial underestimation of the variance of mean utilities. Multiple imputation corrects for this underestimation so that the results of cost-effectiveness analyses using MAUIs can report the correct degree of uncertainty.

The potential for error in sampling

Treesearch

Jack Lewis

2000-01-01

Editor's note: The measurement of water quality parameters in environmental laboratories follows standard quality control protocols using methodologies approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. However, little attention has been given to quality assurance and quality control in activities outside the laboratory. This article describes some of those...

Application of genetic algorithm in the evaluation of the profile error of archimedes helicoid surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lianqing; Chen, Yunfang; Chen, Qingshan; Meng, Hao

2011-05-01

According to minimum zone condition, a method for evaluating the profile error of Archimedes helicoid surface based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed. The mathematic model of the surface is provided and the unknown parameters in the equation of surface are acquired through least square method. Principle of GA is explained. Then, the profile error of Archimedes Helicoid surface is obtained through GA optimization method. To validate the proposed method, the profile error of an Archimedes helicoid surface, Archimedes Cylindrical worm (ZA worm) surface, is evaluated. The results show that the proposed method is capable of correctly evaluating the profile error of Archimedes helicoid surface and satisfy the evaluation standard of the Minimum Zone Method. It can be applied to deal with the measured data of profile error of complex surface obtained by three coordinate measurement machines (CMM).

Integrating fluorescence and interactance measurements to improve apple maturity assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Hyun Kwon; Lu, Renfu

2006-10-01

Fluorescence and reflectance (or interactance) are promising techniques for measuring fruit quality and condition. Our previous research showed that a hyperspectral imaging technique integrating fluorescence and reflectance could improve predictions of selected quality parameters compared to single sensing techniques. The objective of this research was to use a low cost spectrometer for rapid acquisition of fluorescence and interactance spectra from apples and develop an algorithm integrating the two types of data for predicting skin and flesh color, fruit firmness, starch index, soluble solids content, and titratable acid. Experiments were performed to measure UV light induced transient fluorescence and interactance spectra from 'Golden Delicious' apples that were harvested over a period of four weeks during the 2005 harvest season. Standard destructive tests were performed to measure maturity parameters from the apples. Principal component (PC) analysis was applied to the interactance and fluorescence data. A back-propagation feedforward neural network with the inputs of PC data was used to predict individual maturity parameters. Interactance mode was consistently better than fluorescence mode in predicting the maturity parameters. Integrating interactance and fluorescence improved predictions of all parameters except flesh chroma; values of the correlation coefficient for firmness, soluble solids content, starch index, and skin and flesh hue were 0.77, 0.77, 0.89, 0.99, and 0.96 respectively, with the corresponding standard errors of 6.93 N, 0.90%, 0.97 g/L, 0.013 rad, and 0.013 rad. These results represented 4.1% to 23.5% improvements in terms of standard error, in comparison with the better results from the two single sensing methods. Integrating interactance and fluorescence can better assess apple maturity and quality.

High-precision method of binocular camera calibration with a distortion model.

PubMed

Li, Weimin; Shan, Siyu; Liu, Hui

2017-03-10

A high-precision camera calibration method for binocular stereo vision system based on a multi-view template and alternative bundle adjustment is presented in this paper. The proposed method could be achieved by taking several photos on a specially designed calibration template that has diverse encoded points in different orientations. In this paper, the method utilized the existing algorithm used for monocular camera calibration to obtain the initialization, which involves a camera model, including radial lens distortion and tangential distortion. We created a reference coordinate system based on the left camera coordinate to optimize the intrinsic parameters of left camera through alternative bundle adjustment to obtain optimal values. Then, optimal intrinsic parameters of the right camera can be obtained through alternative bundle adjustment when we create a reference coordinate system based on the right camera coordinate. We also used all intrinsic parameters that were acquired to optimize extrinsic parameters. Thus, the optimal lens distortion parameters and intrinsic and extrinsic parameters were obtained. Synthetic and real data were used to test the method. The simulation results demonstrate that the maximum mean absolute relative calibration errors are about 3.5e-6 and 1.2e-6 for the focal length and the principal point, respectively, under zero-mean Gaussian noise with 0.05 pixels standard deviation. The real result shows that the reprojection error of our model is about 0.045 pixels with the relative standard deviation of 1.0e-6 over the intrinsic parameters. The proposed method is convenient, cost-efficient, highly precise, and simple to carry out.

Monitoring gait in multiple sclerosis with novel wearable motion sensors

PubMed Central

McGinnis, Ryan S.; Seagers, Kirsten; Motl, Robert W.; Sheth, Nirav; Wright, John A.; Ghaffari, Roozbeh; Sosnoff, Jacob J.

2017-01-01

Background Mobility impairment is common in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) and there is a need to assess mobility in remote settings. Here, we apply a novel wireless, skin-mounted, and conformal inertial sensor (BioStampRC, MC10 Inc.) to examine gait characteristics of PwMS under controlled conditions. We determine the accuracy and precision of BioStampRC in measuring gait kinematics by comparing to contemporary research-grade measurement devices. Methods A total of 45 PwMS, who presented with diverse walking impairment (Mild MS = 15, Moderate MS = 15, Severe MS = 15), and 15 healthy control subjects participated in the study. Participants completed a series of clinical walking tests. During the tests participants were instrumented with BioStampRC and MTx (Xsens, Inc.) sensors on their shanks, as well as an activity monitor GT3X (Actigraph, Inc.) on their non-dominant hip. Shank angular velocity was simultaneously measured with the inertial sensors. Step number and temporal gait parameters were calculated from the data recorded by each sensor. Visual inspection and the MTx served as the reference standards for computing the step number and temporal parameters, respectively. Accuracy (error) and precision (variance of error) was assessed based on absolute and relative metrics. Temporal parameters were compared across groups using ANOVA. Results Mean accuracy±precision for the BioStampRC was 2±2 steps error for step number, 6±9ms error for stride time and 6±7ms error for step time (0.6–2.6% relative error). Swing time had the least accuracy±precision (25±19ms error, 5±4% relative error) among the parameters. GT3X had the least accuracy±precision (8±14% relative error) in step number estimate among the devices. Both MTx and BioStampRC detected significantly distinct gait characteristics between PwMS with different disability levels (p<0.01). Conclusion BioStampRC sensors accurately and precisely measure gait parameters in PwMS across diverse walking impairment levels and detected differences in gait characteristics by disability level in PwMS. This technology has the potential to provide granular monitoring of gait both inside and outside the clinic. PMID:28178288

Minimal nuclear energy density functional

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulgac, Aurel; Forbes, Michael McNeil; Jin, Shi; Perez, Rodrigo Navarro; Schunck, Nicolas

2018-04-01

We present a minimal nuclear energy density functional (NEDF) called "SeaLL1" that has the smallest number of possible phenomenological parameters to date. SeaLL1 is defined by seven significant phenomenological parameters, each related to a specific nuclear property. It describes the nuclear masses of even-even nuclei with a mean energy error of 0.97 MeV and a standard deviation of 1.46 MeV , two-neutron and two-proton separation energies with rms errors of 0.69 MeV and 0.59 MeV respectively, and the charge radii of 345 even-even nuclei with a mean error ɛr=0.022 fm and a standard deviation σr=0.025 fm . SeaLL1 incorporates constraints on the equation of state (EoS) of pure neutron matter from quantum Monte Carlo calculations with chiral effective field theory two-body (NN ) interactions at the next-to-next-to-next-to leading order (N3LO) level and three-body (NNN ) interactions at the next-to-next-to leading order (N2LO) level. Two of the seven parameters are related to the saturation density and the energy per particle of the homogeneous symmetric nuclear matter, one is related to the nuclear surface tension, two are related to the symmetry energy and its density dependence, one is related to the strength of the spin-orbit interaction, and one is the coupling constant of the pairing interaction. We identify additional phenomenological parameters that have little effect on ground-state properties but can be used to fine-tune features such as the Thomas-Reiche-Kuhn sum rule, the excitation energy of the giant dipole and Gamow-Teller resonances, the static dipole electric polarizability, and the neutron skin thickness.

Minimal nuclear energy density functional

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bulgac, Aurel; Forbes, Michael McNeil; Jin, Shi

Inmore » this paper, we present a minimal nuclear energy density functional (NEDF) called “SeaLL1” that has the smallest number of possible phenomenological parameters to date. SeaLL1 is defined by seven significant phenomenological parameters, each related to a specific nuclear property. It describes the nuclear masses of even-even nuclei with a mean energy error of 0.97 MeV and a standard deviation of 1.46 MeV , two-neutron and two-proton separation energies with rms errors of 0.69 MeV and 0.59 MeV respectively, and the charge radii of 345 even-even nuclei with a mean error ε r = 0.022 fm and a standard deviation σ r = 0.025 fm . SeaLL1 incorporates constraints on the equation of state (EoS) of pure neutron matter from quantum Monte Carlo calculations with chiral effective field theory two-body ( NN ) interactions at the next-to-next-to-next-to leading order (N3LO) level and three-body ( NNN ) interactions at the next-to-next-to leading order (N2LO) level. Two of the seven parameters are related to the saturation density and the energy per particle of the homogeneous symmetric nuclear matter, one is related to the nuclear surface tension, two are related to the symmetry energy and its density dependence, one is related to the strength of the spin-orbit interaction, and one is the coupling constant of the pairing interaction. Finally, we identify additional phenomenological parameters that have little effect on ground-state properties but can be used to fine-tune features such as the Thomas-Reiche-Kuhn sum rule, the excitation energy of the giant dipole and Gamow-Teller resonances, the static dipole electric polarizability, and the neutron skin thickness.« less

Minimal nuclear energy density functional

DOE PAGES

Bulgac, Aurel; Forbes, Michael McNeil; Jin, Shi; ...

2018-04-17

Inmore » this paper, we present a minimal nuclear energy density functional (NEDF) called “SeaLL1” that has the smallest number of possible phenomenological parameters to date. SeaLL1 is defined by seven significant phenomenological parameters, each related to a specific nuclear property. It describes the nuclear masses of even-even nuclei with a mean energy error of 0.97 MeV and a standard deviation of 1.46 MeV , two-neutron and two-proton separation energies with rms errors of 0.69 MeV and 0.59 MeV respectively, and the charge radii of 345 even-even nuclei with a mean error ε r = 0.022 fm and a standard deviation σ r = 0.025 fm . SeaLL1 incorporates constraints on the equation of state (EoS) of pure neutron matter from quantum Monte Carlo calculations with chiral effective field theory two-body ( NN ) interactions at the next-to-next-to-next-to leading order (N3LO) level and three-body ( NNN ) interactions at the next-to-next-to leading order (N2LO) level. Two of the seven parameters are related to the saturation density and the energy per particle of the homogeneous symmetric nuclear matter, one is related to the nuclear surface tension, two are related to the symmetry energy and its density dependence, one is related to the strength of the spin-orbit interaction, and one is the coupling constant of the pairing interaction. Finally, we identify additional phenomenological parameters that have little effect on ground-state properties but can be used to fine-tune features such as the Thomas-Reiche-Kuhn sum rule, the excitation energy of the giant dipole and Gamow-Teller resonances, the static dipole electric polarizability, and the neutron skin thickness.« less

Absolute Parameters for the F-type Eclipsing Binary BW Aquarii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxted, P. F. L.

2018-05-01

BW Aqr is a bright eclipsing binary star containing a pair of F7V stars. The absolute parameters of this binary (masses, radii, etc.) are known to good precision so they are often used to test stellar models, particularly in studies of convective overshooting. ... Maxted & Hutcheon (2018) analysed the Kepler K2 data for BW Aqr and noted that it shows variability between the eclipses that may be caused by tidally induced pulsations. ... Table 1 shows the absolute parameters for BW Aqr derived from an improved analysis of the Kepler K2 light curve plus the RV measurements from both Imbert (1979) and Lester & Gies (2018). ... The values in Table 1 with their robust error estimates from the standard deviation of the mean are consistent with the values and errors from Maxted & Hutcheon (2018) based on the PPD calculated using emcee for a fit to the entire K2 light curve.

Sampling errors in the measurement of rain and hail parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gertzman, H. S.; Atlas, D.

1977-01-01

Attention is given to a general derivation of the fractional standard deviation (FSD) of any integrated property X such that X(D) = cD to the n. This work extends that of Joss and Waldvogel (1969). The equation is applicable to measuring integrated properties of cloud, rain or hail populations (such as water content, precipitation rate, kinetic energy, or radar reflectivity) which are subject to statistical sampling errors due to the Poisson distributed fluctuations of particles sampled in each particle size interval and the weighted sum of the associated variances in proportion to their contribution to the integral parameter to be measured. Universal curves are presented which are applicable to the exponential size distribution permitting FSD estimation of any parameters from n = 0 to n = 6. The equations and curves also permit corrections for finite upper limits in the size spectrum and a realistic fall speed law.

A one-step method for modelling longitudinal data with differential equations.

PubMed

Hu, Yueqin; Treinen, Raymond

2018-04-06

Differential equation models are frequently used to describe non-linear trajectories of longitudinal data. This study proposes a new approach to estimate the parameters in differential equation models. Instead of estimating derivatives from the observed data first and then fitting a differential equation to the derivatives, our new approach directly fits the analytic solution of a differential equation to the observed data, and therefore simplifies the procedure and avoids bias from derivative estimations. A simulation study indicates that the analytic solutions of differential equations (ASDE) approach obtains unbiased estimates of parameters and their standard errors. Compared with other approaches that estimate derivatives first, ASDE has smaller standard error, larger statistical power and accurate Type I error. Although ASDE obtains biased estimation when the system has sudden phase change, the bias is not serious and a solution is also provided to solve the phase problem. The ASDE method is illustrated and applied to a two-week study on consumers' shopping behaviour after a sale promotion, and to a set of public data tracking participants' grammatical facial expression in sign language. R codes for ASDE, recommendations for sample size and starting values are provided. Limitations and several possible expansions of ASDE are also discussed. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Toward unbiased estimations of the statefinder parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aviles, Alejandro; Klapp, Jaime; Luongo, Orlando

2017-09-01

With the use of simulated supernova catalogs, we show that the statefinder parameters turn out to be poorly and biased estimated by standard cosmography. To this end, we compute their standard deviations and several bias statistics on cosmologies near the concordance model, demonstrating that these are very large, making standard cosmography unsuitable for future and wider compilations of data. To overcome this issue, we propose a new method that consists in introducing the series of the Hubble function into the luminosity distance, instead of considering the usual direct Taylor expansions of the luminosity distance. Moreover, in order to speed up the numerical computations, we estimate the coefficients of our expansions in a hierarchical manner, in which the order of the expansion depends on the redshift of every single piece of data. In addition, we propose two hybrids methods that incorporates standard cosmography at low redshifts. The methods presented here perform better than the standard approach of cosmography both in the errors and bias of the estimated statefinders. We further propose a one-parameter diagnostic to reject non-viable methods in cosmography.

Heavy flavor decay of Zγ at CDF

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Timothy M. Harrington-Taber

2013-01-01

Diboson production is an important and frequently measured parameter of the Standard Model. This analysis considers the previously neglected pmore » $$\\bar{p}$$ →Z γ→ b$$\\bar{b}$$ channel, as measured at the Collider Detector at Fermilab. Using the entire Tevatron Run II dataset, the measured result is consistent with Standard Model predictions, but the statistical error associated with this method of measurement limits the strength of this correlation.« less

The performance of the standard rate turn (SRT) by student naval helicopter pilots.

PubMed

Chapman, F; Temme, L A; Still, D L

2001-04-01

During flight training, student naval helicopter pilots learn the use of flight instruments through a prescribed series of simulator training events. The training simulator is a 6-degrees-of-freedom, motion-based, high-fidelity instrument trainer. From the final basic instrument simulator flights of student pilots, we selected for evaluation and analysis their performance of the Standard Rate Turn (SRT), a routine flight maneuver. The performance of the SRT was scored with air speed, altitude and heading average error from target values and standard deviations. These average errors and standard deviations were used in a Multiple Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: 1) direction of turn (left vs. right), 2) degree of turn (180 vs. 360 degrees); and 3) segment of turn (roll-in, first 30 s, last 30 s, and roll-out of turn). Only the main effects of the three independent variables were significant; there were no significant interactions. This result greatly reduces the number of different conditions that should be scored separately for the evaluation of SRT performance. The results also showed that the magnitude of the heading and altitude errors at the beginning of the SRT correlated with the magnitude of the heading and altitude errors throughout the turn. This result suggests that for the turn to be well executed, it is important for it to begin with little error in these two response parameters. The observations reported here should be considered when establishing SRT performance norms and comparing student scores. Furthermore, it seems easier for pilots to maintain good performance than to correct poor performance.

On the Estimation of Standard Errors in Cognitive Diagnosis Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Philipp, Michel; Strobl, Carolin; de la Torre, Jimmy; Zeileis, Achim

2018-01-01

Cognitive diagnosis models (CDMs) are an increasingly popular method to assess mastery or nonmastery of a set of fine-grained abilities in educational or psychological assessments. Several inference techniques are available to quantify the uncertainty of model parameter estimates, to compare different versions of CDMs, or to check model…

Effects of Employing Ridge Regression in Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McQuitty, Shaun

1997-01-01

LISREL 8 invokes a ridge option when maximum likelihood or generalized least squares are used to estimate a structural equation model with a nonpositive definite covariance or correlation matrix. Implications of the ridge option for model fit, parameter estimates, and standard errors are explored through two examples. (SLD)

Sensitivity of grass and alfalfa reference evapotranspiration to weather station sensor accuracy

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relative effects of measurement errors in climate data input parameters on the accuracy of calculated reference crop evapotranspiration (ET) using the ASCE-EWRI Standardized Reference ET Equation. Data for the period of 1991 to 2008 from an autom...

A low-cost three-dimensional laser surface scanning approach for defining body segment parameters.

PubMed

Pandis, Petros; Bull, Anthony Mj

2017-11-01

Body segment parameters are used in many different applications in ergonomics as well as in dynamic modelling of the musculoskeletal system. Body segment parameters can be defined using different methods, including techniques that involve time-consuming manual measurements of the human body, used in conjunction with models or equations. In this study, a scanning technique for measuring subject-specific body segment parameters in an easy, fast, accurate and low-cost way was developed and validated. The scanner can obtain the body segment parameters in a single scanning operation, which takes between 8 and 10 s. The results obtained with the system show a standard deviation of 2.5% in volumetric measurements of the upper limb of a mannequin and 3.1% difference between scanning volume and actual volume. Finally, the maximum mean error for the moment of inertia by scanning a standard-sized homogeneous object was 2.2%. This study shows that a low-cost system can provide quick and accurate subject-specific body segment parameter estimates.

Progressive sampling-based Bayesian optimization for efficient and automatic machine learning model selection.

PubMed

Zeng, Xueqiang; Luo, Gang

2017-12-01

Machine learning is broadly used for clinical data analysis. Before training a model, a machine learning algorithm must be selected. Also, the values of one or more model parameters termed hyper-parameters must be set. Selecting algorithms and hyper-parameter values requires advanced machine learning knowledge and many labor-intensive manual iterations. To lower the bar to machine learning, miscellaneous automatic selection methods for algorithms and/or hyper-parameter values have been proposed. Existing automatic selection methods are inefficient on large data sets. This poses a challenge for using machine learning in the clinical big data era. To address the challenge, this paper presents progressive sampling-based Bayesian optimization, an efficient and automatic selection method for both algorithms and hyper-parameter values. We report an implementation of the method. We show that compared to a state of the art automatic selection method, our method can significantly reduce search time, classification error rate, and standard deviation of error rate due to randomization. This is major progress towards enabling fast turnaround in identifying high-quality solutions required by many machine learning-based clinical data analysis tasks.

Rank score and permutation testing alternatives for regression quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Richards, J.D.; Mielke, P.W.

2006-01-01

Performance of quantile rank score tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) were evaluated by simulation for models with p = 2 and 6 predictors, moderate collinearity among predictors, homogeneous and hetero-geneous errors, small to moderate samples (n = 20–300), and central to upper quantiles (0.50–0.99). Test statistics evaluated were the conventional quantile rank score T statistic distributed as χ2 random variable with q degrees of freedom (where q parameters are constrained by H 0:) and an F statistic with its sampling distribution approximated by permutation. The permutation F-test maintained better Type I errors than the T-test for homogeneous error models with smaller n and more extreme quantiles τ. An F distributional approximation of the F statistic provided some improvements in Type I errors over the T-test for models with > 2 parameters, smaller n, and more extreme quantiles but not as much improvement as the permutation approximation. Both rank score tests required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when heterogeneity under the alternative model increased to 5 standard deviations across the domain of X. A double permutation procedure was developed to provide valid Type I errors for the permutation F-test when null models were forced through the origin. Power was similar for conditions where both T- and F-tests maintained correct Type I errors but the F-test provided some power at smaller n and extreme quantiles when the T-test had no power because of excessively conservative Type I errors. When the double permutation scheme was required for the permutation F-test to maintain valid Type I errors, power was less than for the T-test with decreasing sample size and increasing quantiles. Confidence intervals on parameters and tolerance intervals for future predictions were constructed based on test inversion for an example application relating trout densities to stream channel width:depth.

Can you trust the parametric standard errors in nonlinear least squares? Yes, with provisos.

PubMed

Tellinghuisen, Joel

2018-04-01

Questions about the reliability of parametric standard errors (SEs) from nonlinear least squares (LS) algorithms have led to a general mistrust of these precision estimators that is often unwarranted. The importance of non-Gaussian parameter distributions is illustrated by converting linear models to nonlinear by substituting e A , ln A, and 1/A for a linear parameter a. Monte Carlo (MC) simulations characterize parameter distributions in more complex cases, including when data have varying uncertainty and should be weighted, but weights are neglected. This situation leads to loss of precision and erroneous parametric SEs, as is illustrated for the Lineweaver-Burk analysis of enzyme kinetics data and the analysis of isothermal titration calorimetry data. Non-Gaussian parameter distributions are generally asymmetric and biased. However, when the parametric SE is <10% of the magnitude of the parameter, both the bias and the asymmetry can usually be ignored. Sometimes nonlinear estimators can be redefined to give more normal distributions and better convergence properties. Variable data uncertainty, or heteroscedasticity, can sometimes be handled by data transforms but more generally requires weighted LS, which in turn require knowledge of the data variance. Parametric SEs are rigorously correct in linear LS under the usual assumptions, and are a trustworthy approximation in nonlinear LS provided they are sufficiently small - a condition favored by the abundant, precise data routinely collected in many modern instrumental methods. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiophysical methods of diagnostics the Earth's ionosphere and the underlying earth's surface by remote sensing in the short-wave range of radio waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belov, S. Yu.; Belova, I. N.

2017-11-01

Monitoring of the earth's surface by remote sensing in the short-wave band can provide quick identification of some characteristics of natural systems. This band range allows one to diagnose subsurface aspects of the earth, as the scattering parameter is affected by irregularities in the dielectric permittivity of subsurface structures. This method based on the organization of the monitoring probe may detect changes in these environments, for example, to assess seismic hazard, hazardous natural phenomena such as earthquakes, as well as some man-made hazards and etc. The problem of measuring and accounting for the scattering power of the earth's surface in the short-range of radio waves is important for a number of purposes, such as diagnosing properties of the medium, which is of interest for geological, environmental studies. In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the parameters of incoherent signal/noise ratio. The paper presents the results of comparison of the measurement method from the point of view of their admissible relative analytical errors. The new method is suggested. Analysis of analytical error of estimation of this parameter allowed to recommend new method instead of standard method. A comparative analysis and shows that the analytical (relative) accuracy of the determination of this parameter new method on the order exceeds the widely-used standard method.

On the biosorption, by brown seaweed, Lobophora variegata, of Ni(II) from aqueous solutions: equilibrium and thermodynamic studies.

PubMed

Basha, Shaik; Jaiswar, Santlal; Jha, Bhavanath

2010-09-01

The biosorption equilibrium isotherms of Ni(II) onto marine brown algae Lobophora variegata, which was chemically-modified by CaCl(2) were studied and modeled. To predict the biosorption isotherms and to determine the characteristic parameters for process design, twenty-three one-, two-, three-, four- and five-parameter isotherm models were applied to experimental data. The interaction among biosorbed molecules is attractive and biosorption is carried out on energetically different sites and is an endothermic process. The five-parameter Fritz-Schluender model gives the most accurate fit with high regression coefficient, R (2) (0.9911-0.9975) and F-ratio (118.03-179.96), and low standard error, SE (0.0902-0.0.1556) and the residual or sum of square error, SSE (0.0012-0.1789) values to all experimental data in comparison to other models. The biosorption isotherm models fitted the experimental data in the order: Fritz-Schluender (five-parameter) > Freundlich (two-parameter) > Langmuir (two-parameter) > Khan (three-parameter) > Fritz-Schluender (four-parameter). The thermodynamic parameters such as DeltaG (0), DeltaH (0) and DeltaS (0) have been determined, which indicates the sorption of Ni(II) onto L. variegata was spontaneous and endothermic in nature.

A visual detection model for DCT coefficient quantization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.; Watson, Andrew B.

1994-01-01

The discrete cosine transform (DCT) is widely used in image compression and is part of the JPEG and MPEG compression standards. The degree of compression and the amount of distortion in the decompressed image are controlled by the quantization of the transform coefficients. The standards do not specify how the DCT coefficients should be quantized. One approach is to set the quantization level for each coefficient so that the quantization error is near the threshold of visibility. Results from previous work are combined to form the current best detection model for DCT coefficient quantization noise. This model predicts sensitivity as a function of display parameters, enabling quantization matrices to be designed for display situations varying in luminance, veiling light, and spatial frequency related conditions (pixel size, viewing distance, and aspect ratio). It also allows arbitrary color space directions for the representation of color. A model-based method of optimizing the quantization matrix for an individual image was developed. The model described above provides visual thresholds for each DCT frequency. These thresholds are adjusted within each block for visual light adaptation and contrast masking. For given quantization matrix, the DCT quantization errors are scaled by the adjusted thresholds to yield perceptual errors. These errors are pooled nonlinearly over the image to yield total perceptual error. With this model one may estimate the quantization matrix for a particular image that yields minimum bit rate for a given total perceptual error, or minimum perceptual error for a given bit rate. Custom matrices for a number of images show clear improvement over image-independent matrices. Custom matrices are compatible with the JPEG standard, which requires transmission of the quantization matrix.

Performance in population models for count data, part II: a new SAEM algorithm

PubMed Central

Savic, Radojka; Lavielle, Marc

2009-01-01

Analysis of count data from clinical trials using mixed effect analysis has recently become widely used. However, algorithms available for the parameter estimation, including LAPLACE and Gaussian quadrature (GQ), are associated with certain limitations, including bias in parameter estimates and the long analysis runtime. The stochastic approximation expectation maximization (SAEM) algorithm has proven to be a very efficient and powerful tool in the analysis of continuous data. The aim of this study was to implement and investigate the performance of a new SAEM algorithm for application to count data. A new SAEM algorithm was implemented in MATLAB for estimation of both, parameters and the Fisher information matrix. Stochastic Monte Carlo simulations followed by re-estimation were performed according to scenarios used in previous studies (part I) to investigate properties of alternative algorithms (1). A single scenario was used to explore six probability distribution models. For parameter estimation, the relative bias was less than 0.92% and 4.13 % for fixed and random effects, for all models studied including ones accounting for over- or under-dispersion. Empirical and estimated relative standard errors were similar, with distance between them being <1.7 % for all explored scenarios. The longest CPU time was 95s for parameter estimation and 56s for SE estimation. The SAEM algorithm was extended for analysis of count data. It provides accurate estimates of both, parameters and standard errors. The estimation is significantly faster compared to LAPLACE and GQ. The algorithm is implemented in Monolix 3.1, (beta-version available in July 2009). PMID:19680795

Error in total ozone measurements arising from aerosol attenuation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. W. L.; Basher, R. E.

1979-01-01

A generalized least squares method for deducing both total ozone and aerosol extinction spectrum parameters from Dobson spectrophotometer measurements was developed. An error analysis applied to this system indicates that there is little advantage to additional measurements once a sufficient number of line pairs have been employed to solve for the selected detail in the attenuation model. It is shown that when there is a predominance of small particles (less than about 0.35 microns in diameter) the total ozone from the standard AD system is too high by about one percent. When larger particles are present the derived total ozone may be an overestimate or an underestimate but serious errors occur only for narrow polydispersions.

Head-to-Head Comparison of Global Longitudinal Strain Measurements among Nine Different Vendors: The EACVI/ASE Inter-Vendor Comparison Study.

PubMed

Farsalinos, Konstantinos E; Daraban, Ana M; Ünlü, Serkan; Thomas, James D; Badano, Luigi P; Voigt, Jens-Uwe

2015-10-01

This study was planned by the EACVI/ASE/Industry Task Force to Standardize Deformation Imaging to (1) test the variability of speckle-tracking global longitudinal strain (GLS) measurements among different vendors and (2) compare GLS measurement variability with conventional echocardiographic parameters. Sixty-two volunteers were studied using ultrasound systems from seven manufacturers. Each volunteer was examined by the same sonographer on all machines. Inter- and intraobserver variability was determined in a true test-retest setting. Conventional echocardiographic parameters were acquired for comparison. Using the software packages of the respective manufacturer and of two software-only vendors, endocardial GLS was measured because it was the only GLS parameter that could be provided by all manufactures. We compared GLSAV (the average from the three apical views) and GLS4CH (measured in the four-chamber view) measurements among vendors and with the conventional echocardiographic parameters. Absolute values of GLSAV ranged from 18.0% to 21.5%, while GLS4CH ranged from 17.9% to 21.4%. The absolute difference between vendors for GLSAV was up to 3.7% strain units (P < .001). The interobserver relative mean errors were 5.4% to 8.6% for GLSAV and 6.2% to 11.0% for GLS4CH, while the intraobserver relative mean errors were 4.9% to 7.3% and 7.2% to 11.3%, respectively. These errors were lower than for left ventricular ejection fraction and most other conventional echocardiographic parameters. Reproducibility of GLS measurements was good and in many cases superior to conventional echocardiographic measurements. The small but statistically significant variation among vendors should be considered in performing serial studies and reflects a reference point for ongoing standardization efforts. Copyright © 2015 American Society of Echocardiography. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tuning support vector machines for minimax and Neyman-Pearson classification.

PubMed

Davenport, Mark A; Baraniuk, Richard G; Scott, Clayton D

2010-10-01

This paper studies the training of support vector machine (SVM) classifiers with respect to the minimax and Neyman-Pearson criteria. In principle, these criteria can be optimized in a straightforward way using a cost-sensitive SVM. In practice, however, because these criteria require especially accurate error estimation, standard techniques for tuning SVM parameters, such as cross-validation, can lead to poor classifier performance. To address this issue, we first prove that the usual cost-sensitive SVM, here called the 2C-SVM, is equivalent to another formulation called the 2nu-SVM. We then exploit a characterization of the 2nu-SVM parameter space to develop a simple yet powerful approach to error estimation based on smoothing. In an extensive experimental study, we demonstrate that smoothing significantly improves the accuracy of cross-validation error estimates, leading to dramatic performance gains. Furthermore, we propose coordinate descent strategies that offer significant gains in computational efficiency, with little to no loss in performance.

Reliability and Concurrent Validity of the Narrow Path Walking Test in Persons With Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Uri; Melzer, Itshak

2017-01-01

About 90% of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) have gait instability and 50% fall. Reliable and clinically feasible methods of gait instability assessment are needed. The study investigated the reliability and validity of the Narrow Path Walking Test (NPWT) under single-task (ST) and dual-task (DT) conditions for PwMS. Thirty PwMS performed the NPWT on 2 different occasions, a week apart. Number of Steps, Trial Time, Trial Velocity, Step Length, Number of Step Errors, Number of Cognitive Task Errors, and Number of Balance Losses were measured. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC2,1) were calculated from the average values of NPWT parameters. Absolute reliability was quantified from standard error of measurement (SEM) and smallest real difference (SRD). Concurrent validity of NPWT with Functional Reach Test, Four Square Step Test (FSST), 12-item Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12), and 2 Minute Walking Test (2MWT) was determined using partial correlations. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) for most NPWT parameters during ST and DT ranged from 0.46-0.94 and 0.55-0.95, respectively. The highest relative reliability was found for Number of Step Errors (ICC = 0.94 and 0.93, for ST and DT, respectively) and Trial Velocity (ICC = 0.83 and 0.86, for ST and DT, respectively). Absolute reliability was high for Number of Step Errors in ST (SEM % = 19.53%) and DT (SEM % = 18.14%) and low for Trial Velocity in ST (SEM % = 6.88%) and DT (SEM % = 7.29%). Significant correlations for Number of Step Errors and Trial Velocity were found with FSST, MSWS-12, and 2MWT. In persons with PwMS performing the NPWT, Number of Step Errors and Trial Velocity were highly reliable parameters. Based on correlations with other measures of gait instability, Number of Step Errors was the most valid parameter of dynamic balance under the conditions of our test.Video Abstract available for more insights from the authors (see Supplemental Digital Content 1, available at: http://links.lww.com/JNPT/A159).

Characterization and Uncertainty Analysis of a Reference Pressure Measurement System for Wind Tunnels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amer, Tahani; Tripp, John; Tcheng, Ping; Burkett, Cecil; Sealey, Bradley

2004-01-01

This paper presents the calibration results and uncertainty analysis of a high-precision reference pressure measurement system currently used in wind tunnels at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC). Sensors, calibration standards, and measurement instruments are subject to errors due to aging, drift with time, environment effects, transportation, the mathematical model, the calibration experimental design, and other factors. Errors occur at every link in the chain of measurements and data reduction from the sensor to the final computed results. At each link of the chain, bias and precision uncertainties must be separately estimated for facility use, and are combined to produce overall calibration and prediction confidence intervals for the instrument, typically at a 95% confidence level. The uncertainty analysis and calibration experimental designs used herein, based on techniques developed at LaRC, employ replicated experimental designs for efficiency, separate estimation of bias and precision uncertainties, and detection of significant parameter drift with time. Final results, including calibration confidence intervals and prediction intervals given as functions of the applied inputs, not as a fixed percentage of the full-scale value are presented. System uncertainties are propagated beginning with the initial reference pressure standard, to the calibrated instrument as a working standard in the facility. Among the several parameters that can affect the overall results are operating temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, and facility vibration. Effects of factors such as initial zeroing and temperature are investigated. The effects of the identified parameters on system performance and accuracy are discussed.

On-Line Identification of Simulation Examples for Forgetting Methods to Track Time Varying Parameters Using the Alternative Covariance Matrix in Matlab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachálek, Ján

2011-12-01

The paper compares the abilities of forgetting methods to track time varying parameters of two different simulated models with different types of excitation. The observed parameters in the simulations are the integral sum of the Euclidean norm, deviation of the parameter estimates from their true values and a selected band prediction error count. As supplementary information, we observe the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix. In the paper we used a modified method of Regularized Exponential Forgetting with Alternative Covariance Matrix (REFACM) along with Directional Forgetting (DF) and three standard regularized methods.

Generalized sensitivity analysis of the minimal model of the intravenous glucose tolerance test.

PubMed

Munir, Mohammad

2018-06-01

Generalized sensitivity functions characterize the sensitivity of the parameter estimates with respect to the nominal parameters. We observe from the generalized sensitivity analysis of the minimal model of the intravenous glucose tolerance test that the measurements of insulin, 62 min after the administration of the glucose bolus into the experimental subject's body, possess no information about the parameter estimates. The glucose measurements possess the information about the parameter estimates up to three hours. These observations have been verified by the parameter estimation of the minimal model. The standard errors of the estimates and crude Monte Carlo process also confirm this observation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of Latent Growth Models for Constructs Measured by Multiple Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leite, Walter L.

2007-01-01

Univariate latent growth modeling (LGM) of composites of multiple items (e.g., item means or sums) has been frequently used to analyze the growth of latent constructs. This study evaluated whether LGM of composites yields unbiased parameter estimates, standard errors, chi-square statistics, and adequate fit indexes. Furthermore, LGM was compared…

Using Multilevel Factor Analysis with Clustered Data: Investigating the Factor Structure of the Positive Values Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Francis L.; Cornell, Dewey G.

2016-01-01

Advances in multilevel modeling techniques now make it possible to investigate the psychometric properties of instruments using clustered data. Factor models that overlook the clustering effect can lead to underestimated standard errors, incorrect parameter estimates, and model fit indices. In addition, factor structures may differ depending on…

Least Squares Metric, Unidimensional Scaling of Multivariate Linear Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poole, Keith T.

1990-01-01

A general approach to least-squares unidimensional scaling is presented. Ordering information contained in the parameters is used to transform the standard squared error loss function into a discrete rather than continuous form. Monte Carlo tests with 38,094 ratings of 261 senators, and 1,258 representatives demonstrate the procedure's…

Spatial variability in sensitivity of reference crop ET to accuracy of climate data in the Texas High Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relative effects of measurement errors in climate data input parameters on the accuracy of calculated reference crop evapotranspiration (ET) using the ASCE-EWRI Standardized Reference ET Equation. Data for the period of 1995 to 2008, fro...

A Comparison of Exposure Control Procedures in CATs Using the 3PL Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leroux, Audrey J.; Lopez, Myriam; Hembry, Ian; Dodd, Barbara G.

2013-01-01

This study compares the progressive-restricted standard error (PR-SE) exposure control procedure to three commonly used procedures in computerized adaptive testing, the randomesque, Sympson-Hetter (SH), and no exposure control methods. The performance of these four procedures is evaluated using the three-parameter logistic model under the…

Cartographic mapping study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, C.; Dye, R.; Reed, L.

1982-01-01

The errors associated with planimetric mapping of the United States using satellite remote sensing techniques are analyzed. Assumptions concerning the state of the art achievable for satellite mapping systems and platforms in the 1995 time frame are made. An analysis of these performance parameters is made using an interactive cartographic satellite computer model, after first validating the model using LANDSAT 1 through 3 performance parameters. An investigation of current large scale (1:24,000) US National mapping techniques is made. Using the results of this investigation, and current national mapping accuracy standards, the 1995 satellite mapping system is evaluated for its ability to meet US mapping standards for planimetric and topographic mapping at scales of 1:24,000 and smaller.

Collinear Latent Variables in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

van de Schoot, Rens; Hox, Joop

2014-01-01

Because variables may be correlated in the social and behavioral sciences, multicollinearity might be problematic. This study investigates the effect of collinearity manipulated in within and between levels of a two-level confirmatory factor analysis by Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the influence of the size of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and estimation method; maximum likelihood estimation with robust chi-squares and standard errors and Bayesian estimation, on the convergence rate are investigated. The other variables of interest were rate of inadmissible solutions and the relative parameter and standard error bias on the between level. The results showed that inadmissible solutions were obtained when there was between level collinearity and the estimation method was maximum likelihood. In the within level multicollinearity condition, all of the solutions were admissible but the bias values were higher compared with the between level collinearity condition. Bayesian estimation appeared to be robust in obtaining admissible parameters but the relative bias was higher than for maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, as expected, high ICC produced less biased results compared to medium ICC conditions. PMID:29795827

Collinear Latent Variables in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis: A Comparison of Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian Estimations.

PubMed

Can, Seda; van de Schoot, Rens; Hox, Joop

2015-06-01

Because variables may be correlated in the social and behavioral sciences, multicollinearity might be problematic. This study investigates the effect of collinearity manipulated in within and between levels of a two-level confirmatory factor analysis by Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the influence of the size of the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and estimation method; maximum likelihood estimation with robust chi-squares and standard errors and Bayesian estimation, on the convergence rate are investigated. The other variables of interest were rate of inadmissible solutions and the relative parameter and standard error bias on the between level. The results showed that inadmissible solutions were obtained when there was between level collinearity and the estimation method was maximum likelihood. In the within level multicollinearity condition, all of the solutions were admissible but the bias values were higher compared with the between level collinearity condition. Bayesian estimation appeared to be robust in obtaining admissible parameters but the relative bias was higher than for maximum likelihood estimation. Finally, as expected, high ICC produced less biased results compared to medium ICC conditions.

Short communication: Multi-trait estimation of genetic parameters for milk protein composition in the Danish Holstein.

PubMed

Gebreyesus, G; Lund, M S; Janss, L; Poulsen, N A; Larsen, L B; Bovenhuis, H; Buitenhuis, A J

2016-04-01

Genetic parameters were estimated for the major milk proteins using bivariate and multi-trait models based on genomic relationships between animals. The analyses included, apart from total protein percentage, αS1-casein (CN), αS2-CN, β-CN, κ-CN, α-lactalbumin, and β-lactoglobulin, as well as the posttranslational sub-forms of glycosylated κ-CN and αS1-CN-8P (phosphorylated). Standard errors of the estimates were used to compare the models. In total, 650 Danish Holstein cows across 4 parities and days in milk ranging from 9 to 481d were selected from 21 herds. The multi-trait model generally resulted in lower standard errors of heritability estimates, suggesting that genetic parameters can be estimated with high accuracy using multi-trait analyses with genomic relationships for scarcely recorded traits. The heritability estimates from the multi-trait model ranged from low (0.05 for β-CN) to high (0.78 for κ-CN). Genetic correlations between the milk proteins and the total milk protein percentage were generally low, suggesting the possibility to alter protein composition through selective breeding with little effect on total milk protein percentage. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adjusting for overdispersion in piecewise exponential regression models to estimate excess mortality rate in population-based research.

PubMed

Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Belot, Aurélien; Quaresma, Manuela; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P; Rachet, Bernard

2016-10-01

In population-based cancer research, piecewise exponential regression models are used to derive adjusted estimates of excess mortality due to cancer using the Poisson generalized linear modelling framework. However, the assumption that the conditional mean and variance of the rate parameter given the set of covariates x i are equal is strong and may fail to account for overdispersion given the variability of the rate parameter (the variance exceeds the mean). Using an empirical example, we aimed to describe simple methods to test and correct for overdispersion. We used a regression-based score test for overdispersion under the relative survival framework and proposed different approaches to correct for overdispersion including a quasi-likelihood, robust standard errors estimation, negative binomial regression and flexible piecewise modelling. All piecewise exponential regression models showed the presence of significant inherent overdispersion (p-value <0.001). However, the flexible piecewise exponential model showed the smallest overdispersion parameter (3.2 versus 21.3) for non-flexible piecewise exponential models. We showed that there were no major differences between methods. However, using a flexible piecewise regression modelling, with either a quasi-likelihood or robust standard errors, was the best approach as it deals with both, overdispersion due to model misspecification and true or inherent overdispersion.

WE-H-BRC-09: Simulated Errors in Mock Radiotherapy Plans to Quantify the Effectiveness of the Physics Plan Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopan, O; Kalet, A; Smith, W

2016-06-15

Purpose: A standard tool for ensuring the quality of radiation therapy treatments is the initial physics plan review. However, little is known about its performance in practice. The goal of this study is to measure the effectiveness of physics plan review by introducing simulated errors into “mock” treatment plans and measuring the performance of plan review by physicists. Methods: We generated six mock treatment plans containing multiple errors. These errors were based on incident learning system data both within the department and internationally (SAFRON). These errors were scored for severity and frequency. Those with the highest scores were included inmore » the simulations (13 errors total). Observer bias was minimized using a multiple co-correlated distractor approach. Eight physicists reviewed these plans for errors, with each physicist reviewing, on average, 3/6 plans. The confidence interval for the proportion of errors detected was computed using the Wilson score interval. Results: Simulated errors were detected in 65% of reviews [51–75%] (95% confidence interval [CI] in brackets). The following error scenarios had the highest detection rates: incorrect isocenter in DRRs/CBCT (91% [73–98%]) and a planned dose different from the prescribed dose (100% [61–100%]). Errors with low detection rates involved incorrect field parameters in record and verify system (38%, [18–61%]) and incorrect isocenter localization in planning system (29% [8–64%]). Though pre-treatment QA failure was reliably identified (100%), less than 20% of participants reported the error that caused the failure. Conclusion: This is one of the first quantitative studies of error detection. Although physics plan review is a key safety measure and can identify some errors with high fidelity, others errors are more challenging to detect. This data will guide future work on standardization and automation. Creating new checks or improving existing ones (i.e., via automation) will help in detecting those errors with low detection rates.« less

Crystallography of some lunar plagioclases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, D.B.; Appleman, D.E.; Huebner, J.S.; Clark, J.R.

1970-01-01

Crystals of calcic bytownite from type B rocks have space group U with c ??? 14 angstroms. Bytownite crystals from type A rocks are more sodic and have space group C1, c ??? 7 angstroms. Cell parameters of eight bulk feldspar separates from crystalline rocks indicate that the range of angle gamma is about 23 times the standard error of measurement, and its value might be useful for estimation of composition. Cell parameters of seven ilmenites are close to those of pure FeTiO3.

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE PAGES

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun; ...

2017-11-08

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

A practical method to test the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in logit-based multinomial choice models of travel behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ye, Xin; Garikapati, Venu M.; You, Daehyun

Most multinomial choice models (e.g., the multinomial logit model) adopted in practice assume an extreme-value Gumbel distribution for the random components (error terms) of utility functions. This distributional assumption offers a closed-form likelihood expression when the utility maximization principle is applied to model choice behaviors. As a result, model coefficients can be easily estimated using the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. However, maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and efficient only if distributional assumptions on the random error terms are valid. It is therefore critical to test the validity of underlying distributional assumptions on the error terms that form the basismore » of parameter estimation and policy evaluation. In this paper, a practical yet statistically rigorous method is proposed to test the validity of the distributional assumption on the random components of utility functions in both the multinomial logit (MNL) model and multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model. Based on a semi-nonparametric approach, a closed-form likelihood function that nests the MNL or MDCEV model being tested is derived. The proposed method allows traditional likelihood ratio tests to be used to test violations of the standard Gumbel distribution assumption. Simulation experiments are conducted to demonstrate that the proposed test yields acceptable Type-I and Type-II error probabilities at commonly available sample sizes. The test is then applied to three real-world discrete and discrete-continuous choice models. For all three models, the proposed test rejects the validity of the standard Gumbel distribution in most utility functions, calling for the development of robust choice models that overcome adverse effects of violations of distributional assumptions on the error terms in random utility functions.« less

Fast maximum likelihood estimation using continuous-time neural point process models.

PubMed

Lepage, Kyle Q; MacDonald, Christopher J

2015-06-01

A recent report estimates that the number of simultaneously recorded neurons is growing exponentially. A commonly employed statistical paradigm using discrete-time point process models of neural activity involves the computation of a maximum-likelihood estimate. The time to computate this estimate, per neuron, is proportional to the number of bins in a finely spaced discretization of time. By using continuous-time models of neural activity and the optimally efficient Gaussian quadrature, memory requirements and computation times are dramatically decreased in the commonly encountered situation where the number of parameters p is much less than the number of time-bins n. In this regime, with q equal to the quadrature order, memory requirements are decreased from O(np) to O(qp), and the number of floating-point operations are decreased from O(np(2)) to O(qp(2)). Accuracy of the proposed estimates is assessed based upon physiological consideration, error bounds, and mathematical results describing the relation between numerical integration error and numerical error affecting both parameter estimates and the observed Fisher information. A check is provided which is used to adapt the order of numerical integration. The procedure is verified in simulation and for hippocampal recordings. It is found that in 95 % of hippocampal recordings a q of 60 yields numerical error negligible with respect to parameter estimate standard error. Statistical inference using the proposed methodology is a fast and convenient alternative to statistical inference performed using a discrete-time point process model of neural activity. It enables the employment of the statistical methodology available with discrete-time inference, but is faster, uses less memory, and avoids any error due to discretization.

Designing image segmentation studies: Statistical power, sample size and reference standard quality.

PubMed

Gibson, Eli; Hu, Yipeng; Huisman, Henkjan J; Barratt, Dean C

2017-12-01

Segmentation algorithms are typically evaluated by comparison to an accepted reference standard. The cost of generating accurate reference standards for medical image segmentation can be substantial. Since the study cost and the likelihood of detecting a clinically meaningful difference in accuracy both depend on the size and on the quality of the study reference standard, balancing these trade-offs supports the efficient use of research resources. In this work, we derive a statistical power calculation that enables researchers to estimate the appropriate sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in segmentation accuracy (i.e. the proportion of voxels matching the reference standard) between two algorithms. Furthermore, we derive a formula to relate reference standard errors to their effect on the sample sizes of studies using lower-quality (but potentially more affordable and practically available) reference standards. The accuracy of the derived sample size formula was estimated through Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating, with 95% confidence, a predicted statistical power within 4% of simulated values across a range of model parameters. This corresponds to sample size errors of less than 4 subjects and errors in the detectable accuracy difference less than 0.6%. The applicability of the formula to real-world data was assessed using bootstrap resampling simulations for pairs of algorithms from the PROMISE12 prostate MR segmentation challenge data set. The model predicted the simulated power for the majority of algorithm pairs within 4% for simulated experiments using a high-quality reference standard and within 6% for simulated experiments using a low-quality reference standard. A case study, also based on the PROMISE12 data, illustrates using the formulae to evaluate whether to use a lower-quality reference standard in a prostate segmentation study. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A fuzzy logic-based model for noise control at industrial workplaces.

PubMed

Aluclu, I; Dalgic, A; Toprak, Z F

2008-05-01

Ergonomics is a broad science encompassing the wide variety of working conditions that can affect worker comfort and health, including factors such as lighting, noise, temperature, vibration, workstation design, tool design, machine design, etc. This paper describes noise-human response and a fuzzy logic model developed by comprehensive field studies on noise measurements (including atmospheric parameters) and control measures. The model has two subsystems constructed on noise reduction quantity in dB. The first subsystem of the fuzzy model depending on 549 linguistic rules comprises acoustical features of all materials used in any workplace. Totally 984 patterns were used, 503 patterns for model development and the rest 481 patterns for testing the model. The second subsystem deals with atmospheric parameter interactions with noise and has 52 linguistic rules. Similarly, 94 field patterns were obtained; 68 patterns were used for training stage of the model and the rest 26 patterns for testing the model. These rules were determined by taking into consideration formal standards, experiences of specialists and the measurements patterns. The results of the model were compared with various statistics (correlation coefficients, max-min, standard deviation, average and coefficient of skewness) and error modes (root mean square error and relative error). The correlation coefficients were significantly high, error modes were quite low and the other statistics were very close to the data. This statement indicates the validity of the model. Therefore, the model can be used for noise control in any workplace and helpful to the designer in planning stage of a workplace.

A simplified physical model for assessing solar radiation over Brazil using GOES 8 visible imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceballos, Juan Carlos; Bottino, Marcus Jorge; de Souza, Jaidete Monteiro

2004-01-01

Solar radiation assessment by satellite is constrained by physical limitations of imagery and by the accuracy of instantaneous local atmospheric parameters, suggesting that one should use simplified but physically consistent models for operational work. Such a model is presented for use with GOES 8 imagery applied to atmospheres with low aerosol optical depth. Fundamental satellite-derived parameters are reflectance and cloud cover. A classification method applied to a set of images shows that reflectance, usually defined as upper-threshold Rmax in algorithms assessing cloud cover, would amount ˜0.465, corresponding to the transition between a cumuliform and a stratiform cloud field. Ozone absorption is limited to the stratosphere. The model considers two spectral broadband intervals for tropospheric radiative transfer: ultraviolet and visible intervals are essentially nonabsorbing and can be processed as a single interval, while near-infrared intervals have negligible atmospheric scattering and very low cloud transmittance. Typical values of CO2 and O3 content and of precipitable water are considered. A comparison of daily values of modeled mean irradiance with data of three sites (in rural, urban industrial, and urban coastal environments), September-October 2002, exhibits a bias of +5 W m-2 and a standard deviation of ˜15 W m-2 (0.4 and 1.3 MJ m-2 for daily irradiation). A comparison with monthly means from about 80 automatic weather stations (covering a large area throughout the Brazilian territory) still shows a bias generally within ±10 W m-2 and a low standard deviation (<20 W m-2), but the bias has a trend in September-December 2002, suggesting an annual cycle of local Rmax values. Systematic (mean) errors in partial cloud cover and in nearly clear-sky situations may be enhanced using regional values for atmospheric and surface parameters, such as precipitable water, Rmax, and ground reflectance. The larger errors are observed in situations of high aerosol load (especially in regions with industrial activity or forest or agricultural fires). The last case is evident when sites in the Amazonian region or São Paulo city are selected. When considering daily values averaged within 2.5° × 2.5° cells, the standard error is lower than 20 W m-2; present results suggest an annual cycle of mean bias ranging from +10 to -10 W m-2, with an amplitude of ˜10 W m-2. These values are close to the proposed requirements of 10 W m-2 for the mean deviation and 25 W m-2 for the standard deviation. It is expected that the introduction of a reference grid containing mean values of parameters within a cell could induce a decrease in the standard deviation of mean errors and the correction of their annual cycle. A model adaptation for assessing the effect of high aerosol loads is needed in order to extend improvements to the whole Brazilian area.

Model identification using stochastic differential equation grey-box models in diabetes.

PubMed

Duun-Henriksen, Anne Katrine; Schmidt, Signe; Røge, Rikke Meldgaard; Møller, Jonas Bech; Nørgaard, Kirsten; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Madsen, Henrik

2013-03-01

The acceptance of virtual preclinical testing of control algorithms is growing and thus also the need for robust and reliable models. Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can rarely be validated with standard statistical tools. Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) offer the possibility of building models that can be validated statistically and that are capable of predicting not only a realistic trajectory, but also the uncertainty of the prediction. In an SDE, the prediction error is split into two noise terms. This separation ensures that the errors are uncorrelated and provides the possibility to pinpoint model deficiencies. An identifiable model of the glucoregulatory system in a type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patient is used as the basis for development of a stochastic-differential-equation-based grey-box model (SDE-GB). The parameters are estimated on clinical data from four T1DM patients. The optimal SDE-GB is determined from likelihood-ratio tests. Finally, parameter tracking is used to track the variation in the "time to peak of meal response" parameter. We found that the transformation of the ODE model into an SDE-GB resulted in a significant improvement in the prediction and uncorrelated errors. Tracking of the "peak time of meal absorption" parameter showed that the absorption rate varied according to meal type. This study shows the potential of using SDE-GBs in diabetes modeling. Improved model predictions were obtained due to the separation of the prediction error. SDE-GBs offer a solid framework for using statistical tools for model validation and model development. © 2013 Diabetes Technology Society.

Calibration and data collection protocols for reliable lattice parameter values in electron pair distribution function studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abeykoon, A. M. Milinda; Hu, Hefei; Wu, Lijun

2015-01-30

Different protocols for calibrating electron pair distribution function (ePDF) measurements are explored and described for quantitative studies on nanomaterials. It is found that the most accurate approach to determine the camera length is to use a standard calibration sample of Au nanoparticles from the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Different protocols for data collection are also explored, as are possible operational errors, to find the best approaches for accurate data collection for quantitative ePDF studies.

Calibration and data collection protocols for reliable lattice parameter values in electron pair distribution function (ePDF) studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abeykoon, A. M. Milinda; Hu, Hefei; Wu, Lijun

2015-02-01

We explore and describe different protocols for calibrating electron pair distribution function (ePDF) measurements for quantitative studies on nano-materials. We find the most accurate approach to determine the camera-length is to use a standard calibration sample of Au nanoparticles from National Institute of Standards and Technology. Different protocols for data collection are also explored, as are possible operational errors, to find the best approaches for accurate data collection for quantitative ePDF studies.

Particle size distributions by transmission electron microscopy: an interlaboratory comparison case study

PubMed Central

Rice, Stephen B; Chan, Christopher; Brown, Scott C; Eschbach, Peter; Han, Li; Ensor, David S; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Bonevich, John; Vladár, András E; Hight Walker, Angela R; Zheng, Jiwen; Starnes, Catherine; Stromberg, Arnold; Ye, Jia; Grulke, Eric A

2015-01-01

This paper reports an interlaboratory comparison that evaluated a protocol for measuring and analysing the particle size distribution of discrete, metallic, spheroidal nanoparticles using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The study was focused on automated image capture and automated particle analysis. NIST RM8012 gold nanoparticles (30 nm nominal diameter) were measured for area-equivalent diameter distributions by eight laboratories. Statistical analysis was used to (1) assess the data quality without using size distribution reference models, (2) determine reference model parameters for different size distribution reference models and non-linear regression fitting methods and (3) assess the measurement uncertainty of a size distribution parameter by using its coefficient of variation. The interlaboratory area-equivalent diameter mean, 27.6 nm ± 2.4 nm (computed based on a normal distribution), was quite similar to the area-equivalent diameter, 27.6 nm, assigned to NIST RM8012. The lognormal reference model was the preferred choice for these particle size distributions as, for all laboratories, its parameters had lower relative standard errors (RSEs) than the other size distribution reference models tested (normal, Weibull and Rosin–Rammler–Bennett). The RSEs for the fitted standard deviations were two orders of magnitude higher than those for the fitted means, suggesting that most of the parameter estimate errors were associated with estimating the breadth of the distributions. The coefficients of variation for the interlaboratory statistics also confirmed the lognormal reference model as the preferred choice. From quasi-linear plots, the typical range for good fits between the model and cumulative number-based distributions was 1.9 fitted standard deviations less than the mean to 2.3 fitted standard deviations above the mean. Automated image capture, automated particle analysis and statistical evaluation of the data and fitting coefficients provide a framework for assessing nanoparticle size distributions using TEM for image acquisition. PMID:26361398

Correcting the Standard Errors of 2-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimators for Mendelian Randomization Studies

PubMed Central

Palmer, Tom M; Holmes, Michael V; Keating, Brendan J; Sheehan, Nuala A

2017-01-01

Abstract Mendelian randomization studies use genotypes as instrumental variables to test for and estimate the causal effects of modifiable risk factors on outcomes. Two-stage residual inclusion (TSRI) estimators have been used when researchers are willing to make parametric assumptions. However, researchers are currently reporting uncorrected or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors for these estimates. We compared several different forms of the standard error for linear and logistic TSRI estimates in simulations and in real-data examples. Among others, we consider standard errors modified from the approach of Newey (1987), Terza (2016), and bootstrapping. In our simulations Newey, Terza, bootstrap, and corrected 2-stage least squares (in the linear case) standard errors gave the best results in terms of coverage and type I error. In the real-data examples, the Newey standard errors were 0.5% and 2% larger than the unadjusted standard errors for the linear and logistic TSRI estimators, respectively. We show that TSRI estimators with modified standard errors have correct type I error under the null. Researchers should report TSRI estimates with modified standard errors instead of reporting unadjusted or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. PMID:29106476

Photoplethysmograph signal reconstruction based on a novel hybrid motion artifact detection-reduction approach. Part I: Motion and noise artifact detection.

PubMed

Chong, Jo Woon; Dao, Duy K; Salehizadeh, S M A; McManus, David D; Darling, Chad E; Chon, Ki H; Mendelson, Yitzhak

2014-11-01

Motion and noise artifacts (MNA) are a serious obstacle in utilizing photoplethysmogram (PPG) signals for real-time monitoring of vital signs. We present a MNA detection method which can provide a clean vs. corrupted decision on each successive PPG segment. For motion artifact detection, we compute four time-domain parameters: (1) standard deviation of peak-to-peak intervals (2) standard deviation of peak-to-peak amplitudes (3) standard deviation of systolic and diastolic interval ratios, and (4) mean standard deviation of pulse shape. We have adopted a support vector machine (SVM) which takes these parameters from clean and corrupted PPG signals and builds a decision boundary to classify them. We apply several distinct features of the PPG data to enhance classification performance. The algorithm we developed was verified on PPG data segments recorded by simulation, laboratory-controlled and walking/stair-climbing experiments, respectively, and we compared several well-established MNA detection methods to our proposed algorithm. All compared detection algorithms were evaluated in terms of motion artifact detection accuracy, heart rate (HR) error, and oxygen saturation (SpO2) error. For laboratory controlled finger, forehead recorded PPG data and daily-activity movement data, our proposed algorithm gives 94.4, 93.4, and 93.7% accuracies, respectively. Significant reductions in HR and SpO2 errors (2.3 bpm and 2.7%) were noted when the artifacts that were identified by SVM-MNA were removed from the original signal than without (17.3 bpm and 5.4%). The accuracy and error values of our proposed method were significantly higher and lower, respectively, than all other detection methods. Another advantage of our method is its ability to provide highly accurate onset and offset detection times of MNAs. This capability is important for an automated approach to signal reconstruction of only those data points that need to be reconstructed, which is the subject of the companion paper to this article. Finally, our MNA detection algorithm is real-time realizable as the computational speed on the 7-s PPG data segment was found to be only 7 ms with a Matlab code.

Real-Time Dynamic Modeling - Data Information Requirements and Flight Test Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Smith, Mark S.

2008-01-01

Practical aspects of identifying dynamic models for aircraft in real time were studied. Topics include formulation of an equation-error method in the frequency domain to estimate non-dimensional stability and control derivatives in real time, data information content for accurate modeling results, and data information management techniques such as data forgetting, incorporating prior information, and optimized excitation. Real-time dynamic modeling was applied to simulation data and flight test data from a modified F-15B fighter aircraft, and to operational flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Estimated parameter standard errors and comparisons with results from a batch output-error method in the time domain were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the identified real-time models.

Real-Time Dynamic Modeling - Data Information Requirements and Flight Test Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.; Smith, Mark S.

2010-01-01

Practical aspects of identifying dynamic models for aircraft in real time were studied. Topics include formulation of an equation-error method in the frequency domain to estimate non-dimensional stability and control derivatives in real time, data information content for accurate modeling results, and data information management techniques such as data forgetting, incorporating prior information, and optimized excitation. Real-time dynamic modeling was applied to simulation data and flight test data from a modified F-15B fighter aircraft, and to operational flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Estimated parameter standard errors, prediction cases, and comparisons with results from a batch output-error method in the time domain were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the identified real-time models.

An Algorithm for Retrieving Land Surface Temperatures Using VIIRS Data in Combination with Multi-Sensors

PubMed Central

Xia, Lang; Mao, Kebiao; Ma, Ying; Zhao, Fen; Jiang, Lipeng; Shen, Xinyi; Qin, Zhihao

2014-01-01

A practical algorithm was proposed to retrieve land surface temperature (LST) from Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in mid-latitude regions. The key parameter transmittance is generally computed from water vapor content, while water vapor channel is absent in VIIRS data. In order to overcome this shortcoming, the water vapor content was obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in this study. The analyses on the estimation errors of vapor content and emissivity indicate that when the water vapor errors are within the range of ±0.5 g/cm2, the mean retrieval error of the present algorithm is 0.634 K; while the land surface emissivity errors range from −0.005 to +0.005, the mean retrieval error is less than 1.0 K. Validation with the standard atmospheric simulation shows the average LST retrieval error for the twenty-three land types is 0.734 K, with a standard deviation value of 0.575 K. The comparison between the ground station LST data indicates the retrieval mean accuracy is −0.395 K, and the standard deviation value is 1.490 K in the regions with vegetation and water cover. Besides, the retrieval results of the test data have also been compared with the results measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) VIIRS LST products, and the results indicate that 82.63% of the difference values are within the range of −1 to 1 K, and 17.37% of the difference values are within the range of ±2 to ±1 K. In a conclusion, with the advantages of multi-sensors taken fully exploited, more accurate results can be achieved in the retrieval of land surface temperature. PMID:25397919

Software for marine ecological environment comprehensive monitoring system based on MCGS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X. H.; Ma, R.; Cao, X.; Cao, L.; Chu, D. Z.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, T. P.

2017-08-01

The automatic integrated monitoring software for marine ecological environment based on MCGS configuration software is designed and developed to realize real-time automatic monitoring of many marine ecological parameters. The DTU data transmission terminal performs network communication and transmits the data to the user data center in a timely manner. The software adopts the modular design and has the advantages of stable and flexible data structure, strong portability and scalability, clear interface, simple user operation and convenient maintenance. Continuous site comparison test of 6 months showed that, the relative error of the parameters monitored by the system such as temperature, salinity, turbidity, pH, dissolved oxygen was controlled within 5% with the standard method and the relative error of the nutrient parameters was within 15%. Meanwhile, the system had few maintenance times, low failure rate, stable and efficient continuous monitoring capabilities. The field application shows that the software is stable and the data communication is reliable, and it has a good application prospect in the field of marine ecological environment comprehensive monitoring.

Effect of correlated observation error on parameters, predictions, and uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Green, Christopher T.

2013-01-01

Correlations among observation errors are typically omitted when calculating observation weights for model calibration by inverse methods. We explore the effects of omitting these correlations on estimates of parameters, predictions, and uncertainties. First, we develop a new analytical expression for the difference in parameter variance estimated with and without error correlations for a simple one-parameter two-observation inverse model. Results indicate that omitting error correlations from both the weight matrix and the variance calculation can either increase or decrease the parameter variance, depending on the values of error correlation (ρ) and the ratio of dimensionless scaled sensitivities (rdss). For small ρ, the difference in variance is always small, but for large ρ, the difference varies widely depending on the sign and magnitude of rdss. Next, we consider a groundwater reactive transport model of denitrification with four parameters and correlated geochemical observation errors that are computed by an error-propagation approach that is new for hydrogeologic studies. We compare parameter estimates, predictions, and uncertainties obtained with and without the error correlations. Omitting the correlations modestly to substantially changes parameter estimates, and causes both increases and decreases of parameter variances, consistent with the analytical expression. Differences in predictions for the models calibrated with and without error correlations can be greater than parameter differences when both are considered relative to their respective confidence intervals. These results indicate that including observation error correlations in weighting for nonlinear regression can have important effects on parameter estimates, predictions, and their respective uncertainties.

Effects of Differential Item Functioning on Examinees' Test Performance and Reliability of Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Zhang, Jinming

2017-01-01

Simulations were conducted to examine the effect of differential item functioning (DIF) on measurement consequences such as total scores, item response theory (IRT) ability estimates, and test reliability in terms of the ratio of true-score variance to observed-score variance and the standard error of estimation for the IRT ability parameter. The…

Relative Performance of Rescaling and Resampling Approaches to Model Chi Square and Parameter Standard Error Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevitt, Johnathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

Though common structural equation modeling (SEM) methods are predicated upon the assumption of multivariate normality, applied researchers often find themselves with data clearly violating this assumption and without sufficient sample size to use distribution-free estimation methods. Fortunately, promising alternatives are being integrated into…

Performance of Bootstrapping Approaches To Model Test Statistics and Parameter Standard Error Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevitt, Jonathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

2001-01-01

Evaluated the bootstrap method under varying conditions of nonnormality, sample size, model specification, and number of bootstrap samples drawn from the resampling space. Results for the bootstrap suggest the resampling-based method may be conservative in its control over model rejections, thus having an impact on the statistical power associated…

Parameter Variability and Distributional Assumptions in the Diffusion Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratcliff, Roger

2013-01-01

If the diffusion model (Ratcliff & McKoon, 2008) is to account for the relative speeds of correct responses and errors, it is necessary that the components of processing identified by the model vary across the trials of a task. In standard applications, the rate at which information is accumulated by the diffusion process is assumed to be normally…

Estimation of heart rate and heart rate variability from pulse oximeter recordings using localized model fitting.

PubMed

Wadehn, Federico; Carnal, David; Loeliger, Hans-Andrea

2015-08-01

Heart rate variability is one of the key parameters for assessing the health status of a subject's cardiovascular system. This paper presents a local model fitting algorithm used for finding single heart beats in photoplethysmogram recordings. The local fit of exponentially decaying cosines of frequencies within the physiological range is used to detect the presence of a heart beat. Using 42 subjects from the CapnoBase database, the average heart rate error was 0.16 BPM and the standard deviation of the absolute estimation error was 0.24 BPM.

Parameter estimation method and updating of regional prediction equations for ungaged sites in the desert region of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is currently updating at-site flood frequency estimates for USGS streamflow-gaging stations in the desert region of California. The at-site flood-frequency analysis is complicated by short record lengths (less than 20 years is common) and numerous zero flows/low outliers at many sites. Estimates of the three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) required for fitting the log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution are likely to be highly unreliable based on the limited and heavily censored at-site data. In a generalization of the recommendations in Bulletin 17B, a regional analysis was used to develop regional estimates of all three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) of the LP3 distribution. A regional skew value of zero from a previously published report was used with a new estimated mean squared error (MSE) of 0.20. A weighted least squares (WLS) regression method was used to develop both a regional standard deviation and a mean model based on annual peak-discharge data for 33 USGS stations throughout California’s desert region. At-site standard deviation and mean values were determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) method for fitting the LP3 distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. Additionally, a multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) test, a generalization of the test recommended in Bulletin 17B, was used for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in a flood series. The WLS regression found that no basin characteristics could explain the variability of standard deviation. Consequently, a constant regional standard deviation model was selected, resulting in a log-space value of 0.91 with a MSE of 0.03 log units. Yet drainage area was found to be statistically significant at explaining the site-to-site variability in mean. The linear WLS regional mean model based on drainage area had a Pseudo- 2 R of 51 percent and a MSE of 0.32 log units. The regional parameter estimates were then used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins. The final equations are functions of drainage area.Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 214.2 to 856.2 percent.

A simulation to study the feasibility of improving the temporal resolution of LAGEOS geodynamic solutions by using a sequential process noise filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Brian Davis

1995-01-01

A key drawback to estimating geodetic and geodynamic parameters over time based on satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations is the inability to accurately model all the forces acting on the satellite. Errors associated with the observations and the measurement model can detract from the estimates as well. These 'model errors' corrupt the solutions obtained from the satellite orbit determination process. Dynamical models for satellite motion utilize known geophysical parameters to mathematically detail the forces acting on the satellite. However, these parameters, while estimated as constants, vary over time. These temporal variations must be accounted for in some fashion to maintain meaningful solutions. The primary goal of this study is to analyze the feasibility of using a sequential process noise filter for estimating geodynamic parameters over time from the Laser Geodynamics Satellite (LAGEOS) SLR data. This evaluation is achieved by first simulating a sequence of realistic LAGEOS laser ranging observations. These observations are generated using models with known temporal variations in several geodynamic parameters (along track drag and the J(sub 2), J(sub 3), J(sub 4), and J(sub 5) geopotential coefficients). A standard (non-stochastic) filter and a stochastic process noise filter are then utilized to estimate the model parameters from the simulated observations. The standard non-stochastic filter estimates these parameters as constants over consecutive fixed time intervals. Thus, the resulting solutions contain constant estimates of parameters that vary in time which limits the temporal resolution and accuracy of the solution. The stochastic process noise filter estimates these parameters as correlated process noise variables. As a result, the stochastic process noise filter has the potential to estimate the temporal variations more accurately since the constraint of estimating the parameters as constants is eliminated. A comparison of the temporal resolution of solutions obtained from standard sequential filtering methods and process noise sequential filtering methods shows that the accuracy is significantly improved using process noise. The results show that the positional accuracy of the orbit is improved as well. The temporal resolution of the resulting solutions are detailed, and conclusions drawn about the results. Benefits and drawbacks of using process noise filtering in this type of scenario are also identified.

Correcting the Standard Errors of 2-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimators for Mendelian Randomization Studies.

PubMed

Palmer, Tom M; Holmes, Michael V; Keating, Brendan J; Sheehan, Nuala A

2017-11-01

Mendelian randomization studies use genotypes as instrumental variables to test for and estimate the causal effects of modifiable risk factors on outcomes. Two-stage residual inclusion (TSRI) estimators have been used when researchers are willing to make parametric assumptions. However, researchers are currently reporting uncorrected or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors for these estimates. We compared several different forms of the standard error for linear and logistic TSRI estimates in simulations and in real-data examples. Among others, we consider standard errors modified from the approach of Newey (1987), Terza (2016), and bootstrapping. In our simulations Newey, Terza, bootstrap, and corrected 2-stage least squares (in the linear case) standard errors gave the best results in terms of coverage and type I error. In the real-data examples, the Newey standard errors were 0.5% and 2% larger than the unadjusted standard errors for the linear and logistic TSRI estimators, respectively. We show that TSRI estimators with modified standard errors have correct type I error under the null. Researchers should report TSRI estimates with modified standard errors instead of reporting unadjusted or heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

System statistical reliability model and analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lekach, V. S.; Rood, H.

1973-01-01

A digital computer code was developed to simulate the time-dependent behavior of the 5-kwe reactor thermoelectric system. The code was used to determine lifetime sensitivity coefficients for a number of system design parameters, such as thermoelectric module efficiency and degradation rate, radiator absorptivity and emissivity, fuel element barrier defect constant, beginning-of-life reactivity, etc. A probability distribution (mean and standard deviation) was estimated for each of these design parameters. Then, error analysis was used to obtain a probability distribution for the system lifetime (mean = 7.7 years, standard deviation = 1.1 years). From this, the probability that the system will achieve the design goal of 5 years lifetime is 0.993. This value represents an estimate of the degradation reliability of the system.

Improved efficiency of maximum likelihood analysis of time series with temporally correlated errors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, John O.

2017-01-01

Most time series of geophysical phenomena have temporally correlated errors. From these measurements, various parameters are estimated. For instance, from geodetic measurements of positions, the rates and changes in rates are often estimated and are used to model tectonic processes. Along with the estimates of the size of the parameters, the error in these parameters needs to be assessed. If temporal correlations are not taken into account, or each observation is assumed to be independent, it is likely that any estimate of the error of these parameters will be too low and the estimated value of the parameter will be biased. Inclusion of better estimates of uncertainties is limited by several factors, including selection of the correct model for the background noise and the computational requirements to estimate the parameters of the selected noise model for cases where there are numerous observations. Here, I address the second problem of computational efficiency using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE). Most geophysical time series have background noise processes that can be represented as a combination of white and power-law noise, 1/fα">1/fα1/fα with frequency, f. With missing data, standard spectral techniques involving FFTs are not appropriate. Instead, time domain techniques involving construction and inversion of large data covariance matrices are employed. Bos et al. (J Geod, 2013. doi:10.1007/s00190-012-0605-0) demonstrate one technique that substantially increases the efficiency of the MLE methods, yet is only an approximate solution for power-law indices >1.0 since they require the data covariance matrix to be Toeplitz. That restriction can be removed by simply forming a data filter that adds noise processes rather than combining them in quadrature. Consequently, the inversion of the data covariance matrix is simplified yet provides robust results for a wider range of power-law indices.

Improved efficiency of maximum likelihood analysis of time series with temporally correlated errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langbein, John

2017-08-01

Most time series of geophysical phenomena have temporally correlated errors. From these measurements, various parameters are estimated. For instance, from geodetic measurements of positions, the rates and changes in rates are often estimated and are used to model tectonic processes. Along with the estimates of the size of the parameters, the error in these parameters needs to be assessed. If temporal correlations are not taken into account, or each observation is assumed to be independent, it is likely that any estimate of the error of these parameters will be too low and the estimated value of the parameter will be biased. Inclusion of better estimates of uncertainties is limited by several factors, including selection of the correct model for the background noise and the computational requirements to estimate the parameters of the selected noise model for cases where there are numerous observations. Here, I address the second problem of computational efficiency using maximum likelihood estimates (MLE). Most geophysical time series have background noise processes that can be represented as a combination of white and power-law noise, 1/f^{α } with frequency, f. With missing data, standard spectral techniques involving FFTs are not appropriate. Instead, time domain techniques involving construction and inversion of large data covariance matrices are employed. Bos et al. (J Geod, 2013. doi: 10.1007/s00190-012-0605-0) demonstrate one technique that substantially increases the efficiency of the MLE methods, yet is only an approximate solution for power-law indices >1.0 since they require the data covariance matrix to be Toeplitz. That restriction can be removed by simply forming a data filter that adds noise processes rather than combining them in quadrature. Consequently, the inversion of the data covariance matrix is simplified yet provides robust results for a wider range of power-law indices.

VLBI-derived troposphere parameters during CONT08

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinkelmann, R.; Böhm, J.; Bolotin, S.; Engelhardt, G.; Haas, R.; Lanotte, R.; MacMillan, D. S.; Negusini, M.; Skurikhina, E.; Titov, O.; Schuh, H.

2011-07-01

Time-series of zenith wet and total troposphere delays as well as north and east gradients are compared, and zenith total delays ( ZTD) are combined on the level of parameter estimates. Input data sets are provided by ten Analysis Centers (ACs) of the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) for the CONT08 campaign (12-26 August 2008). The inconsistent usage of meteorological data and models, such as mapping functions, causes systematics among the ACs, and differing parameterizations and constraints add noise to the troposphere parameter estimates. The empirical standard deviation of ZTD among the ACs with regard to an unweighted mean is 4.6 mm. The ratio of the analysis noise to the observation noise assessed by the operator/software impact (OSI) model is about 2.5. These and other effects have to be accounted for to improve the intra-technique combination of VLBI-derived troposphere parameters. While the largest systematics caused by inconsistent usage of meteorological data can be avoided and the application of different mapping functions can be considered by applying empirical corrections, the noise has to be modeled in the stochastic model of intra-technique combination. The application of different stochastic models shows no significant effects on the combined parameters but results in different mean formal errors: the mean formal errors of the combined ZTD are 2.3 mm (unweighted), 4.4 mm (diagonal), 8.6 mm [variance component (VC) estimation], and 8.6 mm (operator/software impact, OSI). On the one hand, the OSI model, i.e. the inclusion of off-diagonal elements in the cofactor-matrix, considers the reapplication of observations yielding a factor of about two for mean formal errors as compared to the diagonal approach. On the other hand, the combination based on VC estimation shows large differences among the VCs and exhibits a comparable scaling of formal errors. Thus, for the combination of troposphere parameters a combination of the two extensions of the stochastic model is recommended.

On the multivariate total least-squares approach to empirical coordinate transformations. Three algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaffrin, Burkhard; Felus, Yaron A.

2008-06-01

The multivariate total least-squares (MTLS) approach aims at estimating a matrix of parameters, Ξ, from a linear model ( Y- E Y = ( X- E X ) · Ξ) that includes an observation matrix, Y, another observation matrix, X, and matrices of randomly distributed errors, E Y and E X . Two special cases of the MTLS approach include the standard multivariate least-squares approach where only the observation matrix, Y, is perturbed by random errors and, on the other hand, the data least-squares approach where only the coefficient matrix X is affected by random errors. In a previous contribution, the authors derived an iterative algorithm to solve the MTLS problem by using the nonlinear Euler-Lagrange conditions. In this contribution, new lemmas are developed to analyze the iterative algorithm, modify it, and compare it with a new ‘closed form’ solution that is based on the singular-value decomposition. For an application, the total least-squares approach is used to estimate the affine transformation parameters that convert cadastral data from the old to the new Israeli datum. Technical aspects of this approach, such as scaling the data and fixing the columns in the coefficient matrix are investigated. This case study illuminates the issue of “symmetry” in the treatment of two sets of coordinates for identical point fields, a topic that had already been emphasized by Teunissen (1989, Festschrift to Torben Krarup, Geodetic Institute Bull no. 58, Copenhagen, Denmark, pp 335-342). The differences between the standard least-squares and the TLS approach are analyzed in terms of the estimated variance component and a first-order approximation of the dispersion matrix of the estimated parameters.

Stratospheric Assimilation of Chemical Tracer Observations Using a Kalman Filter. Pt. 2; Chi-Square Validated Results and Analysis of Variance and Correlation Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menard, Richard; Chang, Lang-Ping

1998-01-01

A Kalman filter system designed for the assimilation of limb-sounding observations of stratospheric chemical tracers, which has four tunable covariance parameters, was developed in Part I (Menard et al. 1998) The assimilation results of CH4 observations from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Sounder instrument (CLAES) and the Halogen Observation Experiment instrument (HALOE) on board of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite are described in this paper. A robust (chi)(sup 2) criterion, which provides a statistical validation of the forecast and observational error covariances, was used to estimate the tunable variance parameters of the system. In particular, an estimate of the model error variance was obtained. The effect of model error on the forecast error variance became critical after only three days of assimilation of CLAES observations, although it took 14 days of forecast to double the initial error variance. We further found that the model error due to numerical discretization as arising in the standard Kalman filter algorithm, is comparable in size to the physical model error due to wind and transport modeling errors together. Separate assimilations of CLAES and HALOE observations were compared to validate the state estimate away from the observed locations. A wave-breaking event that took place several thousands of kilometers away from the HALOE observation locations was well captured by the Kalman filter due to highly anisotropic forecast error correlations. The forecast error correlation in the assimilation of the CLAES observations was found to have a structure similar to that in pure forecast mode except for smaller length scales. Finally, we have conducted an analysis of the variance and correlation dynamics to determine their relative importance in chemical tracer assimilation problems. Results show that the optimality of a tracer assimilation system depends, for the most part, on having flow-dependent error correlation rather than on evolving the error variance.

Joint Seasonal ARMA Approach for Modeling of Load Forecast Errors in Planning Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

2014-04-14

To make informed and robust decisions in the probabilistic power system operation and planning process, it is critical to conduct multiple simulations of the generated combinations of wind and load parameters and their forecast errors to handle the variability and uncertainty of these time series. In order for the simulation results to be trustworthy, the simulated series must preserve the salient statistical characteristics of the real series. In this paper, we analyze day-ahead load forecast error data from multiple balancing authority locations and characterize statistical properties such as mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, correlation between series, time-of-day bias, and time-of-day autocorrelation.more » We then construct and validate a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model to model these characteristics, and use the model to jointly simulate day-ahead load forecast error series for all BAs.« less

Estimations of ABL fluxes and other turbulence parameters from Doppler lidar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gal-Chen, Tzvi; Xu, Mei; Eberhard, Wynn

1989-01-01

Techniques for extraction boundary layer parameters from measurements of a short-pulse CO2 Doppler lidar are described. The measurements are those collected during the First International Satellites Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE). By continuously operating the lidar for about an hour, stable statistics of the radial velocities can be extracted. Assuming that the turbulence is horizontally homogeneous, the mean wind, its standard deviations, and the momentum fluxes were estimated. Spectral analysis of the radial velocities is also performed from which, by examining the amplitude of the power spectrum at the inertial range, the kinetic energy dissipation was deduced. Finally, using the statistical form of the Navier-Stokes equations, the surface heat flux is derived as the residual balance between the vertical gradient of the third moment of the vertical velocity and the kinetic energy dissipation. Combining many measurements would normally reduce the error provided that, it is unbiased and uncorrelated. The nature of some of the algorithms however, is such that, biased and correlated errors may be generated even though the raw measurements are not. Data processing procedures were developed that eliminate bias and minimize error correlation. Once bias and error correlations are accounted for, the large sample size is shown to reduce the errors substantially. The principal features of the derived turbulence statistics for two case studied are presented.

An improved simulation of the 2015 El Niño event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rong-Hua; Tao, Ling-Jiang; Gao, Chuan

2017-09-01

Large uncertainties exist in real-time predictions of the 2015 El Niño event, which have systematic intensity biases that are strongly model-dependent. It is critically important to characterize those model biases so they can be reduced appropriately. In this study, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)-based approach was applied to an intermediate coupled model (ICM) equipped with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique. The CNOP-based approach was used to quantify prediction errors that can be attributed to initial conditions (ICs) and model parameters (MPs). Two key MPs were considered in the ICM: one represents the intensity of the thermocline effect, and the other represents the relative coupling intensity between the ocean and atmosphere. Two experiments were performed to illustrate the effects of error corrections, one with a standard simulation and another with an optimized simulation in which errors in the ICs and MPs derived from the CNOP-based approach were optimally corrected. The results indicate that simulations of the 2015 El Niño event can be effectively improved by using CNOP-derived error correcting. In particular, the El Niño intensity in late 2015 was adequately captured when simulations were started from early 2015. Quantitatively, the Niño3.4 SST index simulated in Dec. 2015 increased to 2.8 °C in the optimized simulation, compared with only 1.5 °C in the standard simulation. The feasibility and effectiveness of using the CNOP-based technique to improve ENSO simulations are demonstrated in the context of the 2015 El Niño event. The limitations and further applications are also discussed.

Precision analysis for standard deviation measurements of immobile single fluorescent molecule images.

PubMed

DeSantis, Michael C; DeCenzo, Shawn H; Li, Je-Luen; Wang, Y M

2010-03-29

Standard deviation measurements of intensity profiles of stationary single fluorescent molecules are useful for studying axial localization, molecular orientation, and a fluorescence imaging system's spatial resolution. Here we report on the analysis of the precision of standard deviation measurements of intensity profiles of single fluorescent molecules imaged using an EMCCD camera.We have developed an analytical expression for the standard deviation measurement error of a single image which is a function of the total number of detected photons, the background photon noise, and the camera pixel size. The theoretical results agree well with the experimental, simulation, and numerical integration results. Using this expression, we show that single-molecule standard deviation measurements offer nanometer precision for a large range of experimental parameters.

Kappa and Rater Accuracy: Paradigms and Parameters.

PubMed

Conger, Anthony J

2017-12-01

Drawing parallels to classical test theory, this article clarifies the difference between rater accuracy and reliability and demonstrates how category marginal frequencies affect rater agreement and Cohen's kappa (κ). Category assignment paradigms are developed: comparing raters to a standard (index) versus comparing two raters to one another (concordance), using both nonstochastic and stochastic category membership. Using a probability model to express category assignments in terms of rater accuracy and random error, it is shown that observed agreement (Po) depends only on rater accuracy and number of categories; however, expected agreement (Pe) and κ depend additionally on category frequencies. Moreover, category frequencies affect Pe and κ solely through the variance of the category proportions, regardless of the specific frequencies underlying the variance. Paradoxically, some judgment paradigms involving stochastic categories are shown to yield higher κ values than their nonstochastic counterparts. Using the stated probability model, assignments to categories were generated for 552 combinations of paradigms, rater and category parameters, category frequencies, and number of stimuli. Observed means and standard errors for Po, Pe, and κ were fully consistent with theory expectations. Guidelines for interpretation of rater accuracy and reliability are offered, along with a discussion of alternatives to the basic model.

Estimating pole/zero errors in GSN-IRIS/USGS network calibration metadata

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, A.T.; Hutt, C.R.; Aster, R.; Bolton, H.; Gee, L.S.; Storm, T.

2012-01-01

Mapping the digital record of a seismograph into true ground motion requires the correction of the data by some description of the instrument's response. For the Global Seismographic Network (Butler et al., 2004), as well as many other networks, this instrument response is represented as a Laplace domain pole–zero model and published in the Standard for the Exchange of Earthquake Data (SEED) format. This Laplace representation assumes that the seismometer behaves as a linear system, with any abrupt changes described adequately via multiple time-invariant epochs. The SEED format allows for published instrument response errors as well, but these typically have not been estimated or provided to users. We present an iterative three-step method to estimate the instrument response parameters (poles and zeros) and their associated errors using random calibration signals. First, we solve a coarse nonlinear inverse problem using a least-squares grid search to yield a first approximation to the solution. This approach reduces the likelihood of poorly estimated parameters (a local-minimum solution) caused by noise in the calibration records and enhances algorithm convergence. Second, we iteratively solve a nonlinear parameter estimation problem to obtain the least-squares best-fit Laplace pole–zero–gain model. Third, by applying the central limit theorem, we estimate the errors in this pole–zero model by solving the inverse problem at each frequency in a two-thirds octave band centered at each best-fit pole–zero frequency. This procedure yields error estimates of the 99% confidence interval. We demonstrate the method by applying it to a number of recent Incorporated Research Institutions in Seismology/United States Geological Survey (IRIS/USGS) network calibrations (network code IU).

Comparing Parameter Estimation Techniques for an Electrical Power Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, A. Terry

1999-01-01

This paper examines various sources of error in MIT's improved top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature model and estimation process. The sources of error are the current parameter estimation technique, quantization noise, and post-processing of the transformer data. Results from this paper will show that an output error parameter estimation technique should be selected to replace the current least squares estimation technique. The output error technique obtained accurate predictions of transformer behavior, revealed the best error covariance, obtained consistent parameter estimates, and provided for valid and sensible parameters. This paper will also show that the output error technique should be used to minimize errors attributed to post-processing (decimation) of the transformer data. Models used in this paper are validated using data from a large transformer in service.

A feasibility study in adapting Shamos Bickel and Hodges Lehman estimator into T-Method for normalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harudin, N.; Jamaludin, K. R.; Muhtazaruddin, M. Nabil; Ramlie, F.; Muhamad, Wan Zuki Azman Wan

2018-03-01

T-Method is one of the techniques governed under Mahalanobis Taguchi System that developed specifically for multivariate data predictions. Prediction using T-Method is always possible even with very limited sample size. The user of T-Method required to clearly understanding the population data trend since this method is not considering the effect of outliers within it. Outliers may cause apparent non-normality and the entire classical methods breakdown. There exist robust parameter estimate that provide satisfactory results when the data contain outliers, as well as when the data are free of them. The robust parameter estimates of location and scale measure called Shamos Bickel (SB) and Hodges Lehman (HL) which are used as a comparable method to calculate the mean and standard deviation of classical statistic is part of it. Embedding these into T-Method normalize stage feasibly help in enhancing the accuracy of the T-Method as well as analysing the robustness of T-method itself. However, the result of higher sample size case study shows that T-method is having lowest average error percentages (3.09%) on data with extreme outliers. HL and SB is having lowest error percentages (4.67%) for data without extreme outliers with minimum error differences compared to T-Method. The error percentages prediction trend is vice versa for lower sample size case study. The result shows that with minimum sample size, which outliers always be at low risk, T-Method is much better on that, while higher sample size with extreme outliers, T-Method as well show better prediction compared to others. For the case studies conducted in this research, it shows that normalization of T-Method is showing satisfactory results and it is not feasible to adapt HL and SB or normal mean and standard deviation into it since it’s only provide minimum effect of percentages errors. Normalization using T-method is still considered having lower risk towards outlier’s effect.

Groundwater Pollution Source Identification using Linked ANN-Optimization Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayaz, Md; Srivastava, Rajesh; Jain, Ashu

2014-05-01

Groundwater is the principal source of drinking water in several parts of the world. Contamination of groundwater has become a serious health and environmental problem today. Human activities including industrial and agricultural activities are generally responsible for this contamination. Identification of groundwater pollution source is a major step in groundwater pollution remediation. Complete knowledge of pollution source in terms of its source characteristics is essential to adopt an effective remediation strategy. Groundwater pollution source is said to be identified completely when the source characteristics - location, strength and release period - are known. Identification of unknown groundwater pollution source is an ill-posed inverse problem. It becomes more difficult for real field conditions, when the lag time between the first reading at observation well and the time at which the source becomes active is not known. We developed a linked ANN-Optimization model for complete identification of an unknown groundwater pollution source. The model comprises two parts- an optimization model and an ANN model. Decision variables of linked ANN-Optimization model contain source location and release period of pollution source. An objective function is formulated using the spatial and temporal data of observed and simulated concentrations, and then minimized to identify the pollution source parameters. In the formulation of the objective function, we require the lag time which is not known. An ANN model with one hidden layer is trained using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm to find the lag time. Different combinations of source locations and release periods are used as inputs and lag time is obtained as the output. Performance of the proposed model is evaluated for two and three dimensional case with error-free and erroneous data. Erroneous data was generated by adding uniformly distributed random error (error level 0-10%) to the analytically computed concentration values. The main advantage of the proposed model is that it requires only upper half of the breakthrough curve and is capable of predicting source parameters when the lag time is not known. Linking of ANN model with proposed optimization model reduces the dimensionality of the decision variables of the optimization model by one and hence complexity of optimization model is reduced. The results show that our proposed linked ANN-Optimization model is able to predict the source parameters for the error-free data accurately. The proposed model was run several times to obtain the mean, standard deviation and interval estimate of the predicted parameters for observations with random measurement errors. It was observed that mean values as predicted by the model were quite close to the exact values. An increasing trend was observed in the standard deviation of the predicted values with increasing level of measurement error. The model appears to be robust and may be efficiently utilized to solve the inverse pollution source identification problem.

Map based navigation for autonomous underwater vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tuohy, S.T.; Leonard, J.J.; Bellingham, J.G.

1995-12-31

In this work, a map based navigation algorithm is developed wherein measured geophysical properties are matched to a priori maps. The objectives is a complete algorithm applicable to a small, power-limited AUV which performs in real time to a required resolution with bounded position error. Interval B-Splines are introduced for the non-linear representation of two-dimensional geophysical parameters that have measurement uncertainty. Fine-scale position determination involves the solution of a system of nonlinear polynomial equations with interval coefficients. This system represents the complete set of possible vehicle locations and is formulated as the intersection of contours established on each map frommore » the simultaneous measurement of associated geophysical parameters. A standard filter mechanisms, based on a bounded interval error model, predicts the position of the vehicle and, therefore, screens extraneous solutions. When multiple solutions are found, a tracking mechanisms is applied until a unique vehicle location is determined.« less

LOGISTIC FUNCTION PROFILE FIT: A least-squares program for fitting interface profiles to an extended logistic function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirchhoff, William H.

2012-09-15

The extended logistic function provides a physically reasonable description of interfaces such as depth profiles or line scans of surface topological or compositional features. It describes these interfaces with the minimum number of parameters, namely, position, width, and asymmetry. Logistic Function Profile Fit (LFPF) is a robust, least-squares fitting program in which the nonlinear extended logistic function is linearized by a Taylor series expansion (equivalent to a Newton-Raphson approach) with no apparent introduction of bias in the analysis. The program provides reliable confidence limits for the parameters when systematic errors are minimal and provides a display of the residuals frommore » the fit for the detection of systematic errors. The program will aid researchers in applying ASTM E1636-10, 'Standard practice for analytically describing sputter-depth-profile and linescan-profile data by an extended logistic function,' and may also prove useful in applying ISO 18516: 2006, 'Surface chemical analysis-Auger electron spectroscopy and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy-determination of lateral resolution.' Examples are given of LFPF fits to a secondary ion mass spectrometry depth profile, an Auger surface line scan, and synthetic data generated to exhibit known systematic errors for examining the significance of such errors to the extrapolation of partial profiles.« less

A comparison between a new model and current models for estimating trunk segment inertial parameters.

PubMed

Wicke, Jason; Dumas, Genevieve A; Costigan, Patrick A

2009-01-05

Modeling of the body segments to estimate segment inertial parameters is required in the kinetic analysis of human motion. A new geometric model for the trunk has been developed that uses various cross-sectional shapes to estimate segment volume and adopts a non-uniform density function that is gender-specific. The goal of this study was to test the accuracy of the new model for estimating the trunk's inertial parameters by comparing it to the more current models used in biomechanical research. Trunk inertial parameters estimated from dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) were used as the standard. Twenty-five female and 24 male college-aged participants were recruited for the study. Comparisons of the new model to the accepted models were accomplished by determining the error between the models' trunk inertial estimates and that from DXA. Results showed that the new model was more accurate across all inertial estimates than the other models. The new model had errors within 6.0% for both genders, whereas the other models had higher average errors ranging from 10% to over 50% and were much more inconsistent between the genders. In addition, there was little consistency in the level of accuracy for the other models when estimating the different inertial parameters. These results suggest that the new model provides more accurate and consistent trunk inertial estimates than the other models for both female and male college-aged individuals. However, similar studies need to be performed using other populations, such as elderly or individuals from a distinct morphology (e.g. obese). In addition, the effect of using different models on the outcome of kinetic parameters, such as joint moments and forces needs to be assessed.

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

Two-dimensional digital photography for child body posture evaluation: standardized technique, reliable parameters and normative data for age 7-10 years.

PubMed

Stolinski, L; Kozinoga, M; Czaprowski, D; Tyrakowski, M; Cerny, P; Suzuki, N; Kotwicki, T

2017-01-01

Digital photogrammetry provides measurements of body angles or distances which allow for quantitative posture assessment with or without the use of external markers. It is becoming an increasingly popular tool for the assessment of the musculoskeletal system. The aim of this paper is to present a structured method for the analysis of posture and its changes using a standardized digital photography technique. The purpose of the study was twofold. The first one comprised 91 children (44 girls and 47 boys) aged 7-10 (8.2 ± 1.0), i.e., students of primary school, and its aim was to develop the photographic method, choose the quantitative parameters, and determine the intraobserver reliability (repeatability) along with the interobserver reliability (reproducibility) measurements in sagittal plane using digital photography, as well as to compare the Rippstein plurimeter and digital photography measurements. The second one involved 7782 children (3804 girls, 3978 boys) aged 7-10 (8.4 ± 0.5), who underwent digital photography postural screening. The methods consisted in measuring and calculating selected parameters, establishing the normal ranges of photographic parameters, presenting percentile charts, as well as noticing common pitfalls and possible sources of errors in digital photography. A standardized procedure for the photographic evaluation of child body posture was presented. The photographic measurements revealed very good intra- and inter-rater reliability regarding the five sagittal parameters and good reliability performed against Rippstein plurimeter measurements. The parameters displayed insignificant variability over time. Normative data were calculated based on photographic assessment, while the percentile charts were provided to serve as reference values. The technical errors observed during photogrammetry are carefully discussed in this article. Technical developments are allowed for the regular use of digital photogrammetry in body posture assessment. Specific child positioning (described above) enables us to avoid incidentally modified posture. Image registration is simple, quick, harmless, and cost-effective. The semi-automatic image analysis, together with the normal values and percentile charts, makes the technique reliable in terms of child's posture documentation and corrective therapy effects' monitoring.

Modeling of Geometric Error in Linear Guide Way to Improved the vertical three-axis CNC Milling machine’s accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwintarini, Widiyanti; Wibowo, Agung; Arthaya, Bagus M.; Yuwana Martawirya, Yatna

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to improve the accuracy of three-axis CNC Milling Vertical engines with a general approach by using mathematical modeling methods of machine tool geometric errors. The inaccuracy of CNC machines can be caused by geometric errors that are an important factor during the manufacturing process and during the assembly phase, and are factors for being able to build machines with high-accuracy. To improve the accuracy of the three-axis vertical milling machine, by knowing geometric errors and identifying the error position parameters in the machine tool by arranging the mathematical modeling. The geometric error in the machine tool consists of twenty-one error parameters consisting of nine linear error parameters, nine angle error parameters and three perpendicular error parameters. The mathematical modeling approach of geometric error with the calculated alignment error and angle error in the supporting components of the machine motion is linear guide way and linear motion. The purpose of using this mathematical modeling approach is the identification of geometric errors that can be helpful as reference during the design, assembly and maintenance stages to improve the accuracy of CNC machines. Mathematically modeling geometric errors in CNC machine tools can illustrate the relationship between alignment error, position and angle on a linear guide way of three-axis vertical milling machines.

Estimation of correlation functions by stochastic approximation.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habibi, A.; Wintz, P. A.

1972-01-01

Consideration of the autocorrelation function of a zero-mean stationary random process. The techniques are applicable to processes with nonzero mean provided the mean is estimated first and subtracted. Two recursive techniques are proposed, both of which are based on the method of stochastic approximation and assume a functional form for the correlation function that depends on a number of parameters that are recursively estimated from successive records. One technique uses a standard point estimator of the correlation function to provide estimates of the parameters that minimize the mean-square error between the point estimates and the parametric function. The other technique provides estimates of the parameters that maximize a likelihood function relating the parameters of the function to the random process. Examples are presented.

An accurate on-site calibration system for electronic voltage transformers using a standard capacitor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chen; Chen, Mian-zhou; Li, Hong-bin; Zhang, Zhu; Jiao, Yang; Shao, Haiming

2018-05-01

Ordinarily electronic voltage transformers (EVTs) are calibrated off-line and the calibration procedure requires complex switching operations, which will influence the reliability of the power grid and induce large economic losses. To overcome this problem, this paper investigates a 110 kV on-site calibration system for EVTs, including a standard channel, a calibrated channel and a PC equipped with the LabView environment. The standard channel employs a standard capacitor and an analogue integrating circuit to reconstruct the primary voltage signal. Moreover, an adaptive full-phase discrete Fourier transform (DFT) algorithm is proposed to extract electrical parameters. The algorithm involves the process of extracting the frequency of the grid, adjusting the operation points, and calculating the results using DFT. In addition, an insulated automatic lifting device is designed to realize the live connection of the standard capacitor, which is driven by a wireless remote controller. A performance test of the capacitor verifies the accurateness of the standard capacitor. A system calibration test shows that the system ratio error is less than 0.04% and the phase error is below 2‧, which meets the requirement of the 0.2 accuracy class. Finally, the developed calibration system was used in a substation, and the field test data validates the availability of the system.

Use of differential scanning calorimetry to detect canola oil (Brassica napus L.) adulterated with lard stearin.

PubMed

Marikkar, Jalaldeen Mohammed Nazrim; Rana, Sohel

2014-01-01

A study was conducted to detect and quantify lard stearin (LS) content in canola oil (CaO) using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Authentic samples of CaO were obtained from a reliable supplier and the adulterant LS were obtained through a fractional crystallization procedure as reported previously. Pure CaO samples spiked with LS in levels ranging from 5 to 15% (w/w) were analyzed using DSC to obtain their cooling and heating profiles. The results showed that samples contaminated with LS at 5% (w/w) level can be detected using characteristic contaminant peaks appearing in the higher temperature regions (0 to 70°C) of the cooling and heating curves. Pearson correlation analysis of LS content against individual DSC parameters of the adulterant peak namely peak temperature, peak area, peak onset temperature indicated that there were strong correlations between these with the LS content of the CaO admixtures. When these three parameters were engaged as variables in the execution of the stepwise regression procedure, predictive models for determination of LS content in CaO were obtained. The predictive models obtained with single DSC parameter had relatively lower coefficient of determination (R(2) value) and higher standard error than the models obtained using two DSC parameters in combination. This study concluded that the predictive models obtained with peak area and peak onset temperature of the adulteration peak would be more accurate for prediction of LS content in CaO based on the highest coefficient of determination (R(2) value) and smallest standard error.

High dimensional linear regression models under long memory dependence and measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, Abhishek

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the models under consideration and motivates problems of interest. A brief literature review is also provided in this chapter. The second chapter investigates the properties of Lasso under long range dependent model errors. Lasso is a computationally efficient approach to model selection and estimation, and its properties are well studied when the regression errors are independent and identically distributed. We study the case, where the regression errors form a long memory moving average process. We establish a finite sample oracle inequality for the Lasso solution. We then show the asymptotic sign consistency in this setup. These results are established in the high dimensional setup (p> n) where p can be increasing exponentially with n. Finally, we show the consistency, n½ --d-consistency of Lasso, along with the oracle property of adaptive Lasso, in the case where p is fixed. Here d is the memory parameter of the stationary error sequence. The performance of Lasso is also analysed in the present setup with a simulation study. The third chapter proposes and investigates the properties of a penalized quantile based estimator for measurement error models. Standard formulations of prediction problems in high dimension regression models assume the availability of fully observed covariates and sub-Gaussian and homogeneous model errors. This makes these methods inapplicable to measurement errors models where covariates are unobservable and observations are possibly non sub-Gaussian and heterogeneous. We propose weighted penalized corrected quantile estimators for the regression parameter vector in linear regression models with additive measurement errors, where unobservable covariates are nonrandom. The proposed estimators forgo the need for the above mentioned model assumptions. We study these estimators in both the fixed dimension and high dimensional sparse setups, in the latter setup, the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size. In the fixed dimensional setting we provide the oracle properties associated with the proposed estimators. In the high dimensional setting, we provide bounds for the statistical error associated with the estimation, that hold with asymptotic probability 1, thereby providing the ℓ1-consistency of the proposed estimator. We also establish the model selection consistency in terms of the correctly estimated zero components of the parameter vector. A simulation study that investigates the finite sample accuracy of the proposed estimator is also included in this chapter.

Effects of positioning on radiographic measurements of ankle morphology: a computerized tomography-based simulation study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Measurements of the morphology of the ankle joint, performed mostly for surgical planning of total ankle arthroplasty and for collecting data for total ankle prosthesis design, are often made on planar radiographs, and therefore can be very sensitive to the positioning of the joint during imaging. The current study aimed to compare ankle morphological measurements using CT-generated 2D images with gold standard values obtained from 3D CT data; to determine the sensitivity of the 2D measurements to mal-positioning of the ankle during imaging; and to quantify the repeatability of the 2D measurements under simulated positioning conditions involving random errors. Method Fifty-eight cadaveric ankles fixed in the neutral joint position (standard pose) were CT scanned, and the data were used to simulate lateral and frontal radiographs under various positioning conditions using digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRR). Results and discussion In the standard pose for imaging, most ankle morphometric parameters measured using 2D images were highly correlated (R > 0.8) to the gold standard values defined by the 3D CT data. For measurements made on the lateral views, the only parameters sensitive to rotational pose errors were longitudinal distances between the most anterior and the most posterior points of the tibial mortise and the tibial profile, which have important implications for determining the optimal cutting level of the bone during arthroplasty. Measurements of the trochlea tali width on the frontal views underestimated the standard values by up to 31.2%, with only a moderate reliability, suggesting that pre-surgical evaluations based on the trochlea tali width should be made with caution in order to avoid inappropriate selection of prosthesis sizes. Conclusions While highly correlated with 3D morphological measurements, some 2D measurements were affected by the bone poses in space during imaging, which may affect surgical decision-making in total ankle arthroplasty, including the amount of bone resection and the selection of the implant sizes. The linear regression equations for the relationship between 2D and 3D measurements will be helpful for correcting the errors in 2D morphometric measurements for clinical applications. PMID:24359413

Multiple window spatial registration error of a gamma camera: 133Ba point source as a replacement of the NEMA procedure.

PubMed

Bergmann, Helmar; Minear, Gregory; Raith, Maria; Schaffarich, Peter M

2008-12-09

The accuracy of multiple window spatial resolution characterises the performance of a gamma camera for dual isotope imaging. In the present study we investigate an alternative method to the standard NEMA procedure for measuring this performance parameter. A long-lived 133Ba point source with gamma energies close to 67Ga and a single bore lead collimator were used to measure the multiple window spatial registration error. Calculation of the positions of the point source in the images used the NEMA algorithm. The results were validated against the values obtained by the standard NEMA procedure which uses a liquid 67Ga source with collimation. Of the source-collimator configurations under investigation an optimum collimator geometry, consisting of a 5 mm thick lead disk with a diameter of 46 mm and a 5 mm central bore, was selected. The multiple window spatial registration errors obtained by the 133Ba method showed excellent reproducibility (standard deviation < 0.07 mm). The values were compared with the results from the NEMA procedure obtained at the same locations and showed small differences with a correlation coefficient of 0.51 (p < 0.05). In addition, the 133Ba point source method proved to be much easier to use. A Bland-Altman analysis showed that the 133Ba and the 67Ga Method can be used interchangeably. The 133Ba point source method measures the multiple window spatial registration error with essentially the same accuracy as the NEMA-recommended procedure, but is easier and safer to use and has the potential to replace the current standard procedure.

A COMPARISON OF STELLAR ELEMENTAL ABUNDANCE TECHNIQUES AND MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinkel, Natalie R.; Young, Patrick A.; Pagano, Michael D.

2016-09-01

Stellar elemental abundances are important for understanding the fundamental properties of a star or stellar group, such as age and evolutionary history, as well as the composition of an orbiting planet. However, as abundance measurement techniques have progressed, there has been little standardization between individual methods and their comparisons. As a result, different stellar abundance procedures determine measurements that vary beyond the quoted error for the same elements within the same stars. The purpose of this paper is to better understand the systematic variations between methods and offer recommendations for producing more accurate results in the future. We invited amore » number of participants from around the world (Australia, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States) to calculate 10 element abundances (C, O, Na, Mg, Al, Si, Fe, Ni, Ba, and Eu) using the same stellar spectra for four stars (HD 361, HD 10700, HD 121504, and HD 202206). Each group produced measurements for each star using (1) their own autonomous techniques, (2) standardized stellar parameters, (3) a standardized line list, and (4) both standardized parameters and a line list. We present the resulting stellar parameters, absolute abundances, and a metric of data similarity that quantifies the homogeneity of the data. We conclude that standardization of some kind, particularly stellar parameters, improves the consistency between methods. However, because results did not converge as more free parameters were standardized, it is clear there are inherent issues within the techniques that need to be reconciled. Therefore, we encourage more conversation and transparency within the community such that stellar abundance determinations can be reproducible as well as accurate and precise.« less

Reliability of System Identification Techniques to Assess Standing Balance in Healthy Elderly

PubMed Central

Maier, Andrea B.; Aarts, Ronald G. K. M.; van Gerven, Joop M. A.; Arendzen, J. Hans; Schouten, Alfred C.; Meskers, Carel G. M.; van der Kooij, Herman

2016-01-01

Objectives System identification techniques have the potential to assess the contribution of the underlying systems involved in standing balance by applying well-known disturbances. We investigated the reliability of standing balance parameters obtained with multivariate closed loop system identification techniques. Methods In twelve healthy elderly balance tests were performed twice a day during three days. Body sway was measured during two minutes of standing with eyes closed and the Balance test Room (BalRoom) was used to apply four disturbances simultaneously: two sensory disturbances, to the proprioceptive and the visual system, and two mechanical disturbances applied at the leg and trunk segment. Using system identification techniques, sensitivity functions of the sensory disturbances and the neuromuscular controller were estimated. Based on the generalizability theory (G theory), systematic errors and sources of variability were assessed using linear mixed models and reliability was assessed by computing indexes of dependability (ID), standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change (MDC). Results A systematic error was found between the first and second trial in the sensitivity functions. No systematic error was found in the neuromuscular controller and body sway. The reliability of 15 of 25 parameters and body sway were moderate to excellent when the results of two trials on three days were averaged. To reach an excellent reliability on one day in 7 out of 25 parameters, it was predicted that at least seven trials must be averaged. Conclusion This study shows that system identification techniques are a promising method to assess the underlying systems involved in standing balance in elderly. However, most of the parameters do not appear to be reliable unless a large number of trials are collected across multiple days. To reach an excellent reliability in one third of the parameters, a training session for participants is needed and at least seven trials of two minutes must be performed on one day. PMID:26953694

Error analysis of the crystal orientations obtained by the dictionary approach to EBSD indexing.

PubMed

Ram, Farangis; Wright, Stuart; Singh, Saransh; De Graef, Marc

2017-10-01

The efficacy of the dictionary approach to Electron Back-Scatter Diffraction (EBSD) indexing was evaluated through the analysis of the error in the retrieved crystal orientations. EBSPs simulated by the Callahan-De Graef forward model were used for this purpose. Patterns were noised, distorted, and binned prior to dictionary indexing. Patterns with a high level of noise, with optical distortions, and with a 25 × 25 pixel size, when the error in projection center was 0.7% of the pattern width and the error in specimen tilt was 0.8°, were indexed with a 0.8° mean error in orientation. The same patterns, but 60 × 60 pixel in size, were indexed by the standard 2D Hough transform based approach with almost the same orientation accuracy. Optimal detection parameters in the Hough space were obtained by minimizing the orientation error. It was shown that if the error in detector geometry can be reduced to 0.1% in projection center and 0.1° in specimen tilt, the dictionary approach can retrieve a crystal orientation with a 0.2° accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Perceptual Calibration for Immersive Display Environments

PubMed Central

Ponto, Kevin; Gleicher, Michael; Radwin, Robert G.; Shin, Hyun Joon

2013-01-01

The perception of objects, depth, and distance has been repeatedly shown to be divergent between virtual and physical environments. We hypothesize that many of these discrepancies stem from incorrect geometric viewing parameters, specifically that physical measurements of eye position are insufficiently precise to provide proper viewing parameters. In this paper, we introduce a perceptual calibration procedure derived from geometric models. While most research has used geometric models to predict perceptual errors, we instead use these models inversely to determine perceptually correct viewing parameters. We study the advantages of these new psychophysically determined viewing parameters compared to the commonly used measured viewing parameters in an experiment with 20 subjects. The perceptually calibrated viewing parameters for the subjects generally produced new virtual eye positions that were wider and deeper than standard practices would estimate. Our study shows that perceptually calibrated viewing parameters can significantly improve depth acuity, distance estimation, and the perception of shape. PMID:23428454

Selection of Common Items as an Unrecognized Source of Variability in Test Equating: A Bootstrap Approximation Assuming Random Sampling of Common Items

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michaelides, Michalis P.; Haertel, Edward H.

2014-01-01

The standard error of equating quantifies the variability in the estimation of an equating function. Because common items for deriving equated scores are treated as fixed, the only source of variability typically considered arises from the estimation of common-item parameters from responses of samples of examinees. Use of alternative, equally…

Water Vapour Effects in Mass Measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khélifa, N.

2008-01-01

Water vapour density inside the mass comparator enclosure is a critical parameter whose fluctuations during mass weighing can lead to errors in the determination of an unknown mass. To monitor them, a method using DFB laser diode in the near infrared has been proposed and tested. Preliminary results of our observation of water vapour sorption and de-sorption processes from the walls and the mass standard are reported.

Software thresholds alter the bias of actigraphy for monitoring sleep in team-sport athletes.

PubMed

Fuller, Kate L; Juliff, Laura; Gore, Christopher J; Peiffer, Jeremiah J; Halson, Shona L

2017-08-01

Actical ® actigraphy is commonly used to monitor athlete sleep. The proprietary software, called Actiware ® , processes data with three different sleep-wake thresholds (Low, Medium or High), but there is no standardisation regarding their use. The purpose of this study was to examine validity and bias of the sleep-wake thresholds for processing Actical ® sleep data in team sport athletes. Validation study comparing actigraph against accepted gold standard polysomnography (PSG). Sixty seven nights of sleep were recorded simultaneously with polysomnography and Actical ® devices. Individual night data was compared across five sleep measures for each sleep-wake threshold using Actiware ® software. Accuracy of each sleep-wake threshold compared with PSG was evaluated from mean bias with 95% confidence limits, Pearson moment-product correlation and associated standard error of estimate. The Medium threshold generated the smallest mean bias compared with polysomnography for total sleep time (8.5min), sleep efficiency (1.8%) and wake after sleep onset (-4.1min); whereas the Low threshold had the smallest bias (7.5min) for wake bouts. Bias in sleep onset latency was the same across thresholds (-9.5min). The standard error of the estimate was similar across all thresholds; total sleep time ∼25min, sleep efficiency ∼4.5%, wake after sleep onset ∼21min, and wake bouts ∼8 counts. Sleep parameters measured by the Actical ® device are greatly influenced by the sleep-wake threshold applied. In the present study the Medium threshold produced the smallest bias for most parameters compared with PSG. Given the magnitude of measurement variability, confidence limits should be employed when interpreting changes in sleep parameters. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. All rights reserved.

Optimal experimental design for assessment of enzyme kinetics in a drug discovery screening environment.

PubMed

Sjögren, Erik; Nyberg, Joakim; Magnusson, Mats O; Lennernäs, Hans; Hooker, Andrew; Bredberg, Ulf

2011-05-01

A penalized expectation of determinant (ED)-optimal design with a discrete parameter distribution was used to find an optimal experimental design for assessment of enzyme kinetics in a screening environment. A data set for enzyme kinetic data (V(max) and K(m)) was collected from previously reported studies, and every V(max)/K(m) pair (n = 76) was taken to represent a unique drug compound. The design was restricted to 15 samples, an incubation time of up to 40 min, and starting concentrations (C(0)) for the incubation between 0.01 and 100 μM. The optimization was performed by finding the sample times and C(0) returning the lowest uncertainty (S.E.) of the model parameter estimates. Individual optimal designs, one general optimal design and one, for laboratory practice suitable, pragmatic optimal design (OD) were obtained. In addition, a standard design (STD-D), representing a commonly applied approach for metabolic stability investigations, was constructed. Simulations were performed for OD and STD-D by using the Michaelis-Menten (MM) equation, and enzyme kinetic parameters were estimated with both MM and a monoexponential decay. OD generated a better result (relative standard error) for 99% of the compounds and an equal or better result [(root mean square error (RMSE)] for 78% of the compounds in estimation of metabolic intrinsic clearance. Furthermore, high-quality estimates (RMSE < 30%) of both V(max) and K(m) could be obtained for a considerable number (26%) of the investigated compounds by using the suggested OD. The results presented in this study demonstrate that the output could generally be improved compared with that obtained from the standard approaches used today.

In vitro quantification of the performance of model-based mono-planar and bi-planar fluoroscopy for 3D joint kinematics estimation.

PubMed

Tersi, Luca; Barré, Arnaud; Fantozzi, Silvia; Stagni, Rita

2013-03-01

Model-based mono-planar and bi-planar 3D fluoroscopy methods can quantify intact joints kinematics with performance/cost trade-off. The aim of this study was to compare the performances of mono- and bi-planar setups to a marker-based gold-standard, during dynamic phantom knee acquisitions. Absolute pose errors for in-plane parameters were lower than 0.6 mm or 0.6° for both mono- and bi-planar setups. Mono-planar setups resulted critical in quantifying the out-of-plane translation (error < 6.5 mm), and bi-planar in quantifying the rotation along bone longitudinal axis (error < 1.3°). These errors propagated to joint angles and translations differently depending on the alignment of the anatomical axes and the fluoroscopic reference frames. Internal-external rotation was the least accurate angle both with mono- (error < 4.4°) and bi-planar (error < 1.7°) setups, due to bone longitudinal symmetries. Results highlighted that accuracy for mono-planar in-plane pose parameters is comparable to bi-planar, but with halved computational costs, halved segmentation time and halved ionizing radiation dose. Bi-planar analysis better compensated for the out-of-plane uncertainty that is differently propagated to relative kinematics depending on the setup. To take its full benefits, the motion task to be investigated should be designed to maintain the joint inside the visible volume introducing constraints with respect to mono-planar analysis.

A comparison of two experimental design approaches in applying conjoint analysis in patient-centered outcomes research: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Kinter, Elizabeth T; Prior, Thomas J; Carswell, Christopher I; Bridges, John F P

2012-01-01

While the application of conjoint analysis and discrete-choice experiments in health are now widely accepted, a healthy debate exists around competing approaches to experimental design. There remains, however, a paucity of experimental evidence comparing competing design approaches and their impact on the application of these methods in patient-centered outcomes research. Our objectives were to directly compare the choice-model parameters and predictions of an orthogonal and a D-efficient experimental design using a randomized trial (i.e., an experiment on experiments) within an application of conjoint analysis studying patient-centered outcomes among outpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia in Germany. Outpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia were surveyed and randomized to receive choice tasks developed using either an orthogonal or a D-efficient experimental design. The choice tasks elicited judgments from the respondents as to which of two patient profiles (varying across seven outcomes and process attributes) was preferable from their own perspective. The results from the two survey designs were analyzed using the multinomial logit model, and the resulting parameter estimates and their robust standard errors were compared across the two arms of the study (i.e., the orthogonal and D-efficient designs). The predictive performances of the two resulting models were also compared by computing their percentage of survey responses classified correctly, and the potential for variation in scale between the two designs of the experiments was tested statistically and explored graphically. The results of the two models were statistically identical. No difference was found using an overall chi-squared test of equality for the seven parameters (p = 0.69) or via uncorrected pairwise comparisons of the parameter estimates (p-values ranged from 0.30 to 0.98). The D-efficient design resulted in directionally smaller standard errors for six of the seven parameters, of which only two were statistically significant, and no differences were found in the observed D-efficiencies of their standard errors (p = 0.62). The D-efficient design resulted in poorer predictive performance, but this was not significant (p = 0.73); there was some evidence that the parameters of the D-efficient design were biased marginally towards the null. While no statistical difference in scale was detected between the two designs (p = 0.74), the D-efficient design had a higher relative scale (1.06). This could be observed when the parameters were explored graphically, as the D-efficient parameters were lower. Our results indicate that orthogonal and D-efficient experimental designs have produced results that are statistically equivalent. This said, we have identified several qualitative findings that speak to the potential differences in these results that may have been statistically identified in a larger sample. While more comparative studies focused on the statistical efficiency of competing design strategies are needed, a more pressing research problem is to document the impact the experimental design has on respondent efficiency.

Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

PubMed

Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

2018-03-05

A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

2018-03-01

A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

Statistical properties of the normalized ice particle size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delanoë, Julien; Protat, Alain; Testud, Jacques; Bouniol, Dominique; Heymsfield, A. J.; Bansemer, A.; Brown, P. R. A.; Forbes, R. M.

2005-05-01

Testud et al. (2001) have recently developed a formalism, known as the "normalized particle size distribution (PSD)", which consists in scaling the diameter and concentration axes in such a way that the normalized PSDs are independent of water content and mean volume-weighted diameter. In this paper we investigate the statistical properties of the normalized PSD for the particular case of ice clouds, which are known to play a crucial role in the Earth's radiation balance. To do so, an extensive database of airborne in situ microphysical measurements has been constructed. A remarkable stability in shape of the normalized PSD is obtained. The impact of using a single analytical shape to represent all PSDs in the database is estimated through an error analysis on the instrumental (radar reflectivity and attenuation) and cloud (ice water content, effective radius, terminal fall velocity of ice crystals, visible extinction) properties. This resulted in a roughly unbiased estimate of the instrumental and cloud parameters, with small standard deviations ranging from 5 to 12%. This error is found to be roughly independent of the temperature range. This stability in shape and its single analytical approximation implies that two parameters are now sufficient to describe any normalized PSD in ice clouds: the intercept parameter N*0 and the mean volume-weighted diameter Dm. Statistical relationships (parameterizations) between N*0 and Dm have then been evaluated in order to reduce again the number of unknowns. It has been shown that a parameterization of N*0 and Dm by temperature could not be envisaged to retrieve the cloud parameters. Nevertheless, Dm-T and mean maximum dimension diameter -T parameterizations have been derived and compared to the parameterization of Kristjánsson et al. (2000) currently used to characterize particle size in climate models. The new parameterization generally produces larger particle sizes at any temperature than the Kristjánsson et al. (2000) parameterization. These new parameterizations are believed to better represent particle size at global scale, owing to a better representativity of the in situ microphysical database used to derive it. We then evaluated the potential of a direct N*0-Dm relationship. While the model parameterized by temperature produces strong errors on the cloud parameters, the N*0-Dm model parameterized by radar reflectivity produces accurate cloud parameters (less than 3% bias and 16% standard deviation). This result implies that the cloud parameters can be estimated from the estimate of only one parameter of the normalized PSD (N*0 or Dm) and a radar reflectivity measurement.

Using soft computing techniques to predict corrected air permeability using Thomeer parameters, air porosity and grain density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nooruddin, Hasan A.; Anifowose, Fatai; Abdulraheem, Abdulazeez

2014-03-01

Soft computing techniques are recently becoming very popular in the oil industry. A number of computational intelligence-based predictive methods have been widely applied in the industry with high prediction capabilities. Some of the popular methods include feed-forward neural networks, radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, functional networks, support vector regression and adaptive network fuzzy inference system. A comparative study among most popular soft computing techniques is presented using a large dataset published in literature describing multimodal pore systems in the Arab D formation. The inputs to the models are air porosity, grain density, and Thomeer parameters obtained using mercury injection capillary pressure profiles. Corrected air permeability is the target variable. Applying developed permeability models in recent reservoir characterization workflow ensures consistency between micro and macro scale information represented mainly by Thomeer parameters and absolute permeability. The dataset was divided into two parts with 80% of data used for training and 20% for testing. The target permeability variable was transformed to the logarithmic scale as a pre-processing step and to show better correlations with the input variables. Statistical and graphical analysis of the results including permeability cross-plots and detailed error measures were created. In general, the comparative study showed very close results among the developed models. The feed-forward neural network permeability model showed the lowest average relative error, average absolute relative error, standard deviations of error and root means squares making it the best model for such problems. Adaptive network fuzzy inference system also showed very good results.

Application of artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms to modeling molecular electronic spectra in solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilichenko, Mark; Kelley, Anne Myers

2001-04-01

A novel approach is presented for finding the vibrational frequencies, Franck-Condon factors, and vibronic linewidths that best reproduce typical, poorly resolved electronic absorption (or fluorescence) spectra of molecules in condensed phases. While calculation of the theoretical spectrum from the molecular parameters is straightforward within the harmonic oscillator approximation for the vibrations, "inversion" of an experimental spectrum to deduce these parameters is not. Standard nonlinear least-squares fitting methods such as Levenberg-Marquardt are highly susceptible to becoming trapped in local minima in the error function unless very good initial guesses for the molecular parameters are made. Here we employ a genetic algorithm to force a broad search through parameter space and couple it with the Levenberg-Marquardt method to speed convergence to each local minimum. In addition, a neural network trained on a large set of synthetic spectra is used to provide an initial guess for the fitting parameters and to narrow the range searched by the genetic algorithm. The combined algorithm provides excellent fits to a variety of single-mode absorption spectra with experimentally negligible errors in the parameters. It converges more rapidly than the genetic algorithm alone and more reliably than the Levenberg-Marquardt method alone, and is robust in the presence of spectral noise. Extensions to multimode systems, and/or to include other spectroscopic data such as resonance Raman intensities, are straightforward.

Special electronic distance meter calibration for precise engineering surveying industrial applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Jaroslav; Štroner, Martin; Urban, Rudolf

2015-05-01

All surveying instruments and their measurements suffer from some errors. To refine the measurement results, it is necessary to use procedures restricting influence of the instrument errors on the measured values or to implement numerical corrections. In precise engineering surveying industrial applications the accuracy of the distances usually realized on relatively short distance is a key parameter limiting the resulting accuracy of the determined values (coordinates, etc.). To determine the size of systematic and random errors of the measured distances were made test with the idea of the suppression of the random error by the averaging of the repeating measurement, and reducing systematic errors influence of by identifying their absolute size on the absolute baseline realized in geodetic laboratory at the Faculty of Civil Engineering CTU in Prague. The 16 concrete pillars with forced centerings were set up and the absolute distances between the points were determined with a standard deviation of 0.02 millimetre using a Leica Absolute Tracker AT401. For any distance measured by the calibrated instruments (up to the length of the testing baseline, i.e. 38.6 m) can now be determined the size of error correction of the distance meter in two ways: Firstly by the interpolation on the raw data, or secondly using correction function derived by previous FFT transformation usage. The quality of this calibration and correction procedure was tested on three instruments (Trimble S6 HP, Topcon GPT-7501, Trimble M3) experimentally using Leica Absolute Tracker AT401. By the correction procedure was the standard deviation of the measured distances reduced significantly to less than 0.6 mm. In case of Topcon GPT-7501 is the nominal standard deviation 2 mm, achieved (without corrections) 2.8 mm and after corrections 0.55 mm; in case of Trimble M3 is nominal standard deviation 3 mm, achieved (without corrections) 1.1 mm and after corrections 0.58 mm; and finally in case of Trimble S6 is nominal standard deviation 1 mm, achieved (without corrections) 1.2 mm and after corrections 0.51 mm. Proposed procedure of the calibration and correction is in our opinion very suitable for increasing of the accuracy of the electronic distance measurement and allows the use of the common surveying instrument to achieve uncommonly high precision.

Error monitoring issues for common channel signaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Victor T.; Kant, Krishna; Ramaswami, V.; Wang, Jonathan L.

1994-04-01

Motivated by field data which showed a large number of link changeovers and incidences of link oscillations between in-service and out-of-service states in common channel signaling (CCS) networks, a number of analyses of the link error monitoring procedures in the SS7 protocol were performed by the authors. This paper summarizes the results obtained thus far and include the following: (1) results of an exact analysis of the performance of the error monitoring procedures under both random and bursty errors; (2) a demonstration that there exists a range of error rates within which the error monitoring procedures of SS7 may induce frequent changeovers and changebacks; (3) an analysis of the performance ofthe SS7 level-2 transmission protocol to determine the tolerable error rates within which the delay requirements can be met; (4) a demonstration that the tolerable error rate depends strongly on various link and traffic characteristics, thereby implying that a single set of error monitor parameters will not work well in all situations; (5) some recommendations on a customizable/adaptable scheme of error monitoring with a discussion on their implementability. These issues may be particularly relevant in the presence of anticipated increases in SS7 traffic due to widespread deployment of Advanced Intelligent Network (AIN) and Personal Communications Service (PCS) as well as for developing procedures for high-speed SS7 links currently under consideration by standards bodies.

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 1. Theory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Prior information on the parameters of a groundwater flow model can be used to improve parameter estimates obtained from nonlinear regression solution of a modeling problem. Two scales of prior information can be available: (1) prior information having known reliability (that is, bias and random error structure) and (2) prior information consisting of best available estimates of unknown reliability. A regression method that incorporates the second scale of prior information assumes the prior information to be fixed for any particular analysis to produce improved, although biased, parameter estimates. Approximate optimization of two auxiliary parameters of the formulation is used to help minimize the bias, which is almost always much smaller than that resulting from standard ridge regression. It is shown that if both scales of prior information are available, then a combined regression analysis may be made.

Reproducibility of the time to peak torque and the joint angle at peak torque on knee of young sportsmen on the isokinetic dynamometer.

PubMed

Bernard, P-L; Amato, M; Degache, F; Edouard, P; Ramdani, S; Blain, H; Calmels, P; Codine, P

2012-05-01

Although peak torque has shown acceptable reproducibility, this may not be the case with two other often used parameters: time to peak torque (TPT) and the angle of peak torque (APT). Those two parameters should be used for the characterization of muscular adaptations in athletes. The isokinetic performance of the knee extensors and flexors in both limbs was measured in 29 male athletes. The experimental protocol consisted of three consecutive identical paradigms separated by 45 min breaks. Each test consisted of four maximal concentric efforts performed at 60 and 180°/s. Reproducibility was quantified by the standard error measurement (SEM), the coefficient of variation (CV) and by means of intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) with the calculation of 6 forms of ICCs. Using ICC as the indicator of reproducibility, the correlations for TPT of both limbs showed a range of 0.51-0.65 in extension and 0.50-0.63 in flexion. For APT, the values were 0.46-0.60 and 0.51-0.81, respectively. In addition, the calculated standard error of measurement (SEM) and CV scores confirmed the low level of absolute reproducibility. Due to their low reproducibility, neither TPT nor APT can serve as independent isokinetic parameters of knee flexor and extensor performance. So, given its reproducibility level, TPT and APT should not be used for the characterization of muscular adaptations in athletes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Selection of noisy measurement locations for error reduction in static parameter identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanayei, Masoud; Onipede, Oladipo; Babu, Suresh R.

1992-09-01

An incomplete set of noisy static force and displacement measurements is used for parameter identification of structures at the element level. Measurement location and the level of accuracy in the measured data can drastically affect the accuracy of the identified parameters. A heuristic method is presented to select a limited number of degrees of freedom (DOF) to perform a successful parameter identification and to reduce the impact of measurement errors on the identified parameters. This pretest simulation uses an error sensitivity analysis to determine the effect of measurement errors on the parameter estimates. The selected DOF can be used for nondestructive testing and health monitoring of structures. Two numerical examples, one for a truss and one for a frame, are presented to demonstrate that using the measurements at the selected subset of DOF can limit the error in the parameter estimates.

Evaluation of the prediction precision capability of partial least squares regression approach for analysis of high alloy steel by laser induced breakdown spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Arnab; Karki, Vijay; Aggarwal, Suresh K.; Maurya, Gulab S.; Kumar, Rohit; Rai, Awadhesh K.; Mao, Xianglei; Russo, Richard E.

2015-06-01

Laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was applied for elemental characterization of high alloy steel using partial least squares regression (PLSR) with an objective to evaluate the analytical performance of this multivariate approach. The optimization of the number of principle components for minimizing error in PLSR algorithm was investigated. The effect of different pre-treatment procedures on the raw spectral data before PLSR analysis was evaluated based on several statistical (standard error of prediction, percentage relative error of prediction etc.) parameters. The pre-treatment with "NORM" parameter gave the optimum statistical results. The analytical performance of PLSR model improved by increasing the number of laser pulses accumulated per spectrum as well as by truncating the spectrum to appropriate wavelength region. It was found that the statistical benefit of truncating the spectrum can also be accomplished by increasing the number of laser pulses per accumulation without spectral truncation. The constituents (Co and Mo) present in hundreds of ppm were determined with relative precision of 4-9% (2σ), whereas the major constituents Cr and Ni (present at a few percent levels) were determined with a relative precision of ~ 2%(2σ).

Evaluating the effects of modeling errors for isolated finite three-dimensional targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henn, Mark-Alexander; Barnes, Bryan M.; Zhou, Hui

2017-10-01

Optical three-dimensional (3-D) nanostructure metrology utilizes a model-based metrology approach to determine critical dimensions (CDs) that are well below the inspection wavelength. Our project at the National Institute of Standards and Technology is evaluating how to attain key CD and shape parameters from engineered in-die capable metrology targets. More specifically, the quantities of interest are determined by varying the input parameters for a physical model until the simulations agree with the actual measurements within acceptable error bounds. As in most applications, establishing a reasonable balance between model accuracy and time efficiency is a complicated task. A well-established simplification is to model the intrinsically finite 3-D nanostructures as either periodic or infinite in one direction, reducing the computationally expensive 3-D simulations to usually less complex two-dimensional (2-D) problems. Systematic errors caused by this simplified model can directly influence the fitting of the model to the measurement data and are expected to become more apparent with decreasing lengths of the structures. We identify these effects using selected simulation results and present experimental setups, e.g., illumination numerical apertures and focal ranges, that can increase the validity of the 2-D approach.

A general model for attitude determination error analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markley, F. Landis; Seidewitz, ED; Nicholson, Mark

1988-01-01

An overview is given of a comprehensive approach to filter and dynamics modeling for attitude determination error analysis. The models presented include both batch least-squares and sequential attitude estimation processes for both spin-stabilized and three-axis stabilized spacecraft. The discussion includes a brief description of a dynamics model of strapdown gyros, but it does not cover other sensor models. Model parameters can be chosen to be solve-for parameters, which are assumed to be estimated as part of the determination process, or consider parameters, which are assumed to have errors but not to be estimated. The only restriction on this choice is that the time evolution of the consider parameters must not depend on any of the solve-for parameters. The result of an error analysis is an indication of the contributions of the various error sources to the uncertainties in the determination of the spacecraft solve-for parameters. The model presented gives the uncertainty due to errors in the a priori estimates of the solve-for parameters, the uncertainty due to measurement noise, the uncertainty due to dynamic noise (also known as process noise or measurement noise), the uncertainty due to the consider parameters, and the overall uncertainty due to all these sources of error.

Estimating errors in least-squares fitting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richter, P. H.

1995-01-01

While least-squares fitting procedures are commonly used in data analysis and are extensively discussed in the literature devoted to this subject, the proper assessment of errors resulting from such fits has received relatively little attention. The present work considers statistical errors in the fitted parameters, as well as in the values of the fitted function itself, resulting from random errors in the data. Expressions are derived for the standard error of the fit, as a function of the independent variable, for the general nonlinear and linear fitting problems. Additionally, closed-form expressions are derived for some examples commonly encountered in the scientific and engineering fields, namely ordinary polynomial and Gaussian fitting functions. These results have direct application to the assessment of the antenna gain and system temperature characteristics, in addition to a broad range of problems in data analysis. The effects of the nature of the data and the choice of fitting function on the ability to accurately model the system under study are discussed, and some general rules are deduced to assist workers intent on maximizing the amount of information obtained form a given set of measurements.

Error in Radar-Derived Soil Moisture due to Roughness Parameterization: An Analysis Based on Synthetical Surface Profiles

PubMed Central

Lievens, Hans; Vernieuwe, Hilde; Álvarez-Mozos, Jesús; De Baets, Bernard; Verhoest, Niko E.C.

2009-01-01

In the past decades, many studies on soil moisture retrieval from SAR demonstrated a poor correlation between the top layer soil moisture content and observed backscatter coefficients, which mainly has been attributed to difficulties involved in the parameterization of surface roughness. The present paper describes a theoretical study, performed on synthetical surface profiles, which investigates how errors on roughness parameters are introduced by standard measurement techniques, and how they will propagate through the commonly used Integral Equation Model (IEM) into a corresponding soil moisture retrieval error for some of the currently most used SAR configurations. Key aspects influencing the error on the roughness parameterization and consequently on soil moisture retrieval are: the length of the surface profile, the number of profile measurements, the horizontal and vertical accuracy of profile measurements and the removal of trends along profiles. Moreover, it is found that soil moisture retrieval with C-band configuration generally is less sensitive to inaccuracies in roughness parameterization than retrieval with L-band configuration. PMID:22399956

Application of a parameter-estimation technique to modeling the regional aquifer underlying the eastern Snake River plain, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garabedian, Stephen P.

1986-01-01

A nonlinear, least-squares regression technique for the estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to the regional aquifer underlying the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho. The technique uses a computer program to simulate two-dimensional, steady-state ground-water flow. Hydrologic data for the 1980 water year were used to calculate recharge rates, boundary fluxes, and spring discharges. Ground-water use was estimated from irrigated land maps and crop consumptive-use figures. These estimates of ground-water withdrawal, recharge rates, and boundary flux, along with leakance, were used as known values in the model calibration of transmissivity. Leakance values were adjusted between regression solutions by comparing model-calculated to measured spring discharges. In other simulations, recharge and leakance also were calibrated as prior-information regression parameters, which limits the variation of these parameters using a normalized standard error of estimate. Results from a best-fit model indicate a wide areal range in transmissivity from about 0.05 to 44 feet squared per second and in leakance from about 2.2x10 -9 to 6.0 x 10 -8 feet per second per foot. Along with parameter values, model statistics also were calculated, including the coefficient of correlation between calculated and observed head (0.996), the standard error of the estimates for head (40 feet), and the parameter coefficients of variation (about 10-40 percent). Additional boundary flux was added in some areas during calibration to achieve proper fit to ground-water flow directions. Model fit improved significantly when areas that violated model assumptions were removed. It also improved slightly when y-direction (northwest-southeast) transmissivity values were larger than x-direction (northeast-southwest) transmissivity values. The model was most sensitive to changes in recharge, and in some areas, to changes in transmissivity, particularly near the spring discharge area from Milner Dam to King Hill.

Photospheric Magnetic Field Properties of Flaring versus Flare-quiet Active Regions. II. Discriminant Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.

2003-10-01

We apply statistical tests based on discriminant analysis to the wide range of photospheric magnetic parameters described in a companion paper by Leka & Barnes, with the goal of identifying those properties that are important for the production of energetic events such as solar flares. The photospheric vector magnetic field data from the University of Hawai'i Imaging Vector Magnetograph are well sampled both temporally and spatially, and we include here data covering 24 flare-event and flare-quiet epochs taken from seven active regions. The mean value and rate of change of each magnetic parameter are treated as separate variables, thus evaluating both the parameter's state and its evolution, to determine which properties are associated with flaring. Considering single variables first, Hotelling's T2-tests show small statistical differences between flare-producing and flare-quiet epochs. Even pairs of variables considered simultaneously, which do show a statistical difference for a number of properties, have high error rates, implying a large degree of overlap of the samples. To better distinguish between flare-producing and flare-quiet populations, larger numbers of variables are simultaneously considered; lower error rates result, but no unique combination of variables is clearly the best discriminator. The sample size is too small to directly compare the predictive power of large numbers of variables simultaneously. Instead, we rank all possible four-variable permutations based on Hotelling's T2-test and look for the most frequently appearing variables in the best permutations, with the interpretation that they are most likely to be associated with flaring. These variables include an increasing kurtosis of the twist parameter and a larger standard deviation of the twist parameter, but a smaller standard deviation of the distribution of the horizontal shear angle and a horizontal field that has a smaller standard deviation but a larger kurtosis. To support the ``sorting all permutations'' method of selecting the most frequently occurring variables, we show that the results of a single 10-variable discriminant analysis are consistent with the ranking. We demonstrate that individually, the variables considered here have little ability to differentiate between flaring and flare-quiet populations, but with multivariable combinations, the populations may be distinguished.

Checking distributional assumptions for pharmacokinetic summary statistics based on simulations with compartmental models.

PubMed

Shen, Meiyu; Russek-Cohen, Estelle; Slud, Eric V

2016-08-12

Bioequivalence (BE) studies are an essential part of the evaluation of generic drugs. The most common in vivo BE study design is the two-period two-treatment crossover design. AUC (area under the concentration-time curve) and Cmax (maximum concentration) are obtained from the observed concentration-time profiles for each subject from each treatment under each sequence. In the BE evaluation of pharmacokinetic crossover studies, the normality of the univariate response variable, e.g. log(AUC) 1 or log(Cmax), is often assumed in the literature without much evidence. Therefore, we investigate the distributional assumption of the normality of response variables, log(AUC) and log(Cmax), by simulating concentration-time profiles from two-stage pharmacokinetic models (commonly used in pharmacokinetic research) for a wide range of pharmacokinetic parameters and measurement error structures. Our simulations show that, under reasonable distributional assumptions on the pharmacokinetic parameters, log(AUC) has heavy tails and log(Cmax) is skewed. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to investigate how the distribution of the standardized log(AUC) (or the standardized log(Cmax)) for a large number of simulated subjects deviates from normality if distributions of errors in the pharmacokinetic model for plasma concentrations deviate from normality and if the plasma concentration can be described by different compartmental models.

The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

2011-05-01

The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Simulation Model for DVB-SH Systems Based on OFDM for Analyzing Quasi-error-free Communication over Different Channel Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bačić, Iva; Malarić, Krešimir; Dumić, Emil

2014-05-01

Mobile users today expect wide range of multimedia services to be available in different mobility scenarios, and among the others is mobile TV service. The Digital Video Broadcasting - Satellite services to Handheld (DVB-SH) is designed to provide mobile TV services, supporting a wide range of mobile multimedia services, like audio and data broadcasting as well as file downloading services. In this paper we present our simulation model for the performance evaluation of the DVB-SH system following the ETSI standard EN 302 583. Simulation model includes complete DVB-SH system, supporting all standardized system modes and parameters. From transmitter to receiver, the information may be sent over different channel models, thus simulating real case scenarios. To the best of authors' knowledge, this is the first complete model of DVB-SH system that includes all standardized system parameters and may be used for examining real DVB-SH communication as well as for educational purposes.

Bayesian operational modal analysis of Jiangyin Yangtze River Bridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brownjohn, James Mark William; Au, Siu-Kui; Zhu, Yichen; Sun, Zhen; Li, Binbin; Bassitt, James; Hudson, Emma; Sun, Hongbin

2018-09-01

Vibration testing of long span bridges is becoming a commissioning requirement, yet such exercises represent the extreme of experimental capability, with challenges for instrumentation (due to frequency range, resolution and km-order separation of sensor) and system identification (because of the extreme low frequencies). The challenge with instrumentation for modal analysis is managing synchronous data acquisition from sensors distributed widely apart inside and outside the structure. The ideal solution is precisely synchronised autonomous recorders that do not need cables, GPS or wireless communication. The challenge with system identification is to maximise the reliability of modal parameters through experimental design and subsequently to identify the parameters in terms of mean values and standard errors. The challenge is particularly severe for modes with low frequency and damping typical of long span bridges. One solution is to apply 'third generation' operational modal analysis procedures using Bayesian approaches in both the planning and analysis stages. The paper presents an exercise on the Jiangyin Yangtze River Bridge, a suspension bridge with a 1385 m main span. The exercise comprised planning of a test campaign to optimise the reliability of operational modal analysis, the deployment of a set of independent data acquisition units synchronised using precision oven controlled crystal oscillators and the subsequent identification of a set of modal parameters in terms of mean and variance errors. Although the bridge has had structural health monitoring technology installed since it was completed, this was the first full modal survey, aimed at identifying important features of the modal behaviour rather than providing fine resolution of mode shapes through the whole structure. Therefore, measurements were made in only the (south) tower, while torsional behaviour was identified by a single measurement using a pair of recorders across the carriageway. The modal survey revealed a first lateral symmetric mode with natural frequency 0.0536 Hz with standard error ±3.6% and damping ratio 4.4% with standard error ±88%. First vertical mode is antisymmetric with frequency 0.11 Hz ± 1.2% and damping ratio 4.9% ± 41%. A significant and novel element of the exercise was planning of the measurement setups and their necessary duration linked to prior estimation of the precision of the frequency and damping estimates. The second novelty is the use of the multi-sensor precision synchronised acquisition without external time reference on a structure of this scale. The challenges of ambient vibration testing and modal identification in a complex environment are addressed leveraging on advances in practical implementation and scientific understanding of the problem.

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data.

PubMed

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C

2015-12-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased Type I and Type II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in online supplemental materials. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data

PubMed Central

Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A.; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C.

2015-01-01

Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non-normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased type-I and type-II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally-technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in supplementary materials. PMID:26098126

Simplified Estimation and Testing in Unbalanced Repeated Measures Designs.

PubMed

Spiess, Martin; Jordan, Pascal; Wendt, Mike

2018-05-07

In this paper we propose a simple estimator for unbalanced repeated measures design models where each unit is observed at least once in each cell of the experimental design. The estimator does not require a model of the error covariance structure. Thus, circularity of the error covariance matrix and estimation of correlation parameters and variances are not necessary. Together with a weak assumption about the reason for the varying number of observations, the proposed estimator and its variance estimator are unbiased. As an alternative to confidence intervals based on the normality assumption, a bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap technique is considered. We also propose the naive percentile bootstrap for Wald-type tests where the standard Wald test may break down when the number of observations is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. In a simulation study we illustrate the properties of the estimator and the bootstrap techniques to calculate confidence intervals and conduct hypothesis tests in small and large samples under normality and non-normality of the errors. The results imply that the simple estimator is only slightly less efficient than an estimator that correctly assumes a block structure of the error correlation matrix, a special case of which is an equi-correlation matrix. Application of the estimator and the bootstrap technique is illustrated using data from a task switch experiment based on an experimental within design with 32 cells and 33 participants.

Analysis of calibration data for the uranium active neutron coincidence counting collar with attention to errors in the measured neutron coincidence rate

DOE PAGES

Croft, Stephen; Burr, Thomas Lee; Favalli, Andrea; ...

2015-12-10

We report that the declared linear density of 238U and 235U in fresh low enriched uranium light water reactor fuel assemblies can be verified for nuclear safeguards purposes using a neutron coincidence counter collar in passive and active mode, respectively. The active mode calibration of the Uranium Neutron Collar – Light water reactor fuel (UNCL) instrument is normally performed using a non-linear fitting technique. The fitting technique relates the measured neutron coincidence rate (the predictor) to the linear density of 235U (the response) in order to estimate model parameters of the nonlinear Padé equation, which traditionally is used to modelmore » the calibration data. Alternatively, following a simple data transformation, the fitting can also be performed using standard linear fitting methods. This paper compares performance of the nonlinear technique to the linear technique, using a range of possible error variance magnitudes in the measured neutron coincidence rate. We develop the required formalism and then apply the traditional (nonlinear) and alternative approaches (linear) to the same experimental and corresponding simulated representative datasets. Lastly, we find that, in this context, because of the magnitude of the errors in the predictor, it is preferable not to transform to a linear model, and it is preferable not to adjust for the errors in the predictor when inferring the model parameters« less

Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals of Norm Statistics for Educational and Psychological Tests.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Hannah E M; van der Ark, L Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

2016-11-14

Norm statistics allow for the interpretation of scores on psychological and educational tests, by relating the test score of an individual test taker to the test scores of individuals belonging to the same gender, age, or education groups, et cetera. Given the uncertainty due to sampling error, one would expect researchers to report standard errors for norm statistics. In practice, standard errors are seldom reported; they are either unavailable or derived under strong distributional assumptions that may not be realistic for test scores. We derived standard errors for four norm statistics (standard deviation, percentile ranks, stanine boundaries and Z-scores) under the mild assumption that the test scores are multinomially distributed. A simulation study showed that the standard errors were unbiased and that corresponding Wald-based confidence intervals had good coverage. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for applying the standard errors in practical test use in education and psychology. The procedure is provided via the R function check.norms, which is available in the mokken package.

A Non-Local, Energy-Optimized Kernel: Recovering Second-Order Exchange and Beyond in Extended Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, Jefferson; Laricchia, Savio; Ruzsinszky, Adrienn

The Random Phase Approximation (RPA) is quickly becoming a standard method beyond semi-local Density Functional Theory that naturally incorporates weak interactions and eliminates self-interaction error. RPA is not perfect, however, and suffers from self-correlation error as well as an incorrect description of short-ranged correlation typically leading to underbinding. To improve upon RPA we introduce a short-ranged, exchange-like kernel that is one-electron self-correlation free for one and two electron systems in the high-density limit. By tuning the one free parameter in our model to recover an exact limit of the homogeneous electron gas correlation energy we obtain a non-local, energy-optimized kernel that reduces the errors of RPA for both homogeneous and inhomogeneous solids. To reduce the computational cost of the standard kernel-corrected RPA, we also implement RPA renormalized perturbation theory for extended systems, and demonstrate its capability to describe the dominant correlation effects with a low-order expansion in both metallic and non-metallic systems. Furthermore we stress that for norm-conserving implementations the accuracy of RPA and beyond RPA structural properties compared to experiment is inherently limited by the choice of pseudopotential. Current affiliation: King's College London.

Adaptive Offset Correction for Intracortical Brain Computer Interfaces

PubMed Central

Homer, Mark L.; Perge, János A.; Black, Michael J.; Harrison, Matthew T.; Cash, Sydney S.; Hochberg, Leigh R.

2014-01-01

Intracortical brain computer interfaces (iBCIs) decode intended movement from neural activity for the control of external devices such as a robotic arm. Standard approaches include a calibration phase to estimate decoding parameters. During iBCI operation, the statistical properties of the neural activity can depart from those observed during calibration, sometimes hindering a user’s ability to control the iBCI. To address this problem, we adaptively correct the offset terms within a Kalman filter decoder via penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The approach can handle rapid shifts in neural signal behavior (on the order of seconds) and requires no knowledge of the intended movement. The algorithm, called MOCA, was tested using simulated neural activity and evaluated retrospectively using data collected from two people with tetraplegia operating an iBCI. In 19 clinical research test cases, where a nonadaptive Kalman filter yielded relatively high decoding errors, MOCA significantly reduced these errors (10.6 ±10.1%; p<0.05, pairwise t-test). MOCA did not significantly change the error in the remaining 23 cases where a nonadaptive Kalman filter already performed well. These results suggest that MOCA provides more robust decoding than the standard Kalman filter for iBCIs. PMID:24196868

Adaptive offset correction for intracortical brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Homer, Mark L; Perge, Janos A; Black, Michael J; Harrison, Matthew T; Cash, Sydney S; Hochberg, Leigh R

2014-03-01

Intracortical brain-computer interfaces (iBCIs) decode intended movement from neural activity for the control of external devices such as a robotic arm. Standard approaches include a calibration phase to estimate decoding parameters. During iBCI operation, the statistical properties of the neural activity can depart from those observed during calibration, sometimes hindering a user's ability to control the iBCI. To address this problem, we adaptively correct the offset terms within a Kalman filter decoder via penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The approach can handle rapid shifts in neural signal behavior (on the order of seconds) and requires no knowledge of the intended movement. The algorithm, called multiple offset correction algorithm (MOCA), was tested using simulated neural activity and evaluated retrospectively using data collected from two people with tetraplegia operating an iBCI. In 19 clinical research test cases, where a nonadaptive Kalman filter yielded relatively high decoding errors, MOCA significantly reduced these errors ( 10.6 ± 10.1% ; p < 0.05, pairwise t-test). MOCA did not significantly change the error in the remaining 23 cases where a nonadaptive Kalman filter already performed well. These results suggest that MOCA provides more robust decoding than the standard Kalman filter for iBCIs.

Usefulness of model-based iterative reconstruction in semi-automatic volumetry for ground-glass nodules at ultra-low-dose CT: a phantom study.

PubMed

Maruyama, Shuki; Fukushima, Yasuhiro; Miyamae, Yuta; Koizumi, Koji

2018-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the effects of parameter presets of the forward projected model-based iterative reconstruction solution (FIRST) on the accuracy of pulmonary nodule volume measurement. A torso phantom with simulated nodules [diameter: 5, 8, 10, and 12 mm; computed tomography (CT) density: - 630 HU] was scanned with a multi-detector CT at tube currents of 10 mA (ultra-low-dose: UL-dose) and 270 mA (standard-dose: Std-dose). Images were reconstructed with filtered back projection [FBP; standard (Std-FBP), ultra-low-dose (UL-FBP)], FIRST Lung (UL-Lung), and FIRST Body (UL-Body), and analyzed with a semi-automatic software. The error in the volume measurement was determined. The errors with UL-Lung and UL-Body were smaller than that with UL-FBP. The smallest error was 5.8% ± 0.3 for the 12-mm nodule with UL-Body (middle lung). Our results indicated that FIRST Body would be superior to FIRST Lung in terms of accuracy of nodule measurement with UL-dose CT.

Analytical Problems and Suggestions in the Analysis of Behavioral Economic Demand Curves.

PubMed

Yu, Jihnhee; Liu, Liu; Collins, R Lorraine; Vincent, Paula C; Epstein, Leonard H

2014-01-01

Behavioral economic demand curves (Hursh, Raslear, Shurtleff, Bauman, & Simmons, 1988) are innovative approaches to characterize the relationships between consumption of a substance and its price. In this article, we investigate common analytical issues in the use of behavioral economic demand curves, which can cause inconsistent interpretations of demand curves, and then we provide methodological suggestions to address those analytical issues. We first demonstrate that log transformation with different added values for handling zeros changes model parameter estimates dramatically. Second, demand curves are often analyzed using an overparameterized model that results in an inefficient use of the available data and a lack of assessment of the variability among individuals. To address these issues, we apply a nonlinear mixed effects model based on multivariate error structures that has not been used previously to analyze behavioral economic demand curves in the literature. We also propose analytical formulas for the relevant standard errors of derived values such as P max, O max, and elasticity. The proposed model stabilizes the derived values regardless of using different added increments and provides substantially smaller standard errors. We illustrate the data analysis procedure using data from a relative reinforcement efficacy study of simulated marijuana purchasing.

Hypothesis Testing Using Factor Score Regression

PubMed Central

Devlieger, Ines; Mayer, Axel; Rosseel, Yves

2015-01-01

In this article, an overview is given of four methods to perform factor score regression (FSR), namely regression FSR, Bartlett FSR, the bias avoiding method of Skrondal and Laake, and the bias correcting method of Croon. The bias correcting method is extended to include a reliable standard error. The four methods are compared with each other and with structural equation modeling (SEM) by using analytic calculations and two Monte Carlo simulation studies to examine their finite sample characteristics. Several performance criteria are used, such as the bias using the unstandardized and standardized parameterization, efficiency, mean square error, standard error bias, type I error rate, and power. The results show that the bias correcting method, with the newly developed standard error, is the only suitable alternative for SEM. While it has a higher standard error bias than SEM, it has a comparable bias, efficiency, mean square error, power, and type I error rate. PMID:29795886

A Combined SRTM Digital Elevation Model for Zanjan State of Iran Based on the Corrective Surface Idea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiamehr, Ramin

2016-04-01

One arc-second high resolution version of the SRTM model recently published for the Iran by the US Geological Survey database. Digital Elevation Models (DEM) is widely used in different disciplines and applications by geoscientist. It is an essential data in geoid computation procedure, e.g., to determine the topographic, downward continuation (DWC) and atmospheric corrections. Also, it can be used in road location and design in civil engineering and hydrological analysis. However, a DEM is only a model of the elevation surface and it is subject to errors. The most important parts of errors could be comes from the bias in height datum. On the other hand, the accuracy of DEM is usually published in global sense and it is important to have estimation about the accuracy in the area of interest before using of it. One of the best methods to have a reasonable indication about the accuracy of DEM is obtained from the comparison of their height versus the precise national GPS/levelling data. It can be done by the determination of the Root-Mean-Square (RMS) of fitting between the DEM and leveling heights. The errors in the DEM can be approximated by different kinds of functions in order to fit the DEMs to a set of GPS/levelling data using the least squares adjustment. In the current study, several models ranging from a simple linear regression to seven parameter similarity transformation model are used in fitting procedure. However, the seven parameter model gives the best fitting with minimum standard division in all selected DEMs in the study area. Based on the 35 precise GPS/levelling data we obtain a RMS of 7 parameter fitting for SRTM DEM 5.5 m, The corrective surface model in generated based on the transformation parameters and included to the original SRTM model. The result of fitting in combined model is estimated again by independent GPS/leveling data. The result shows great improvement in absolute accuracy of the model with the standard deviation of 3.4 meter.

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1995-01-01

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Accuracy Performance Evaluation of Beidou Navigation Satellite System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hu, Y. N.

2017-03-01

Accuracy is one of the key elements of the regional Beidou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) performance standard. In this paper, we review the definition specification and evaluation standard of the BDS accuracy. Current accuracy of the regional BDS is analyzed through the ground measurements and compared with GPS in terms of dilution of precision (DOP), signal-in-space user range error (SIS URE), and positioning accuracy. The Positioning DOP (PDOP) map of BDS around Chinese mainland is compared with that of GPS. The GPS PDOP is between 1.0-2.0 and does not vary with the user latitude and longitude, while the BDS PDOP varies between 1.5-5.0, and increases as the user latitude increases, and as the user longitude apart from 118°. The accuracies of the broadcast orbits of BDS are assessed by taking the precise orbits from International GNSS Service (IGS) as the reference, and by making satellite laser ranging (SLR) residuals. The radial errors of the BDS inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) and medium orbit (MEO) satellites broadcast orbits are at the 0.5m level, which are larger than those of GPS satellites at the 0.2m level. The SLR residuals of geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites are 65.0cm, which are larger than those of IGSO, and MEO satellites, at the 50.0cm level. The accuracy of broadcast clock offset parameters of BDS is computed by taking the clock measurements of Two-way Satellite Radio Time Frequency Transfer as the reference. Affected by the age of broadcast clock parameters, the error of the broadcast clock offset parameters of the MEO satellites is the largest, at the 0.80m level. Finally, measurements of the multi-GNSS (MGEX) receivers are used for positioning accuracy assessment of BDS and GPS. It is concluded that the positioning accuracy of regional BDS is better than 10m at the horizontal component and the vertical component. The combined positioning accuracy of both systems is better than one specific system.

Inverse modeling for seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Insights about parameter sensitivities, variances, correlations and estimation procedures derived from the Henry problem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanz, E.; Voss, C.I.

2006-01-01

Inverse modeling studies employing data collected from the classic Henry seawater intrusion problem give insight into several important aspects of inverse modeling of seawater intrusion problems and effective measurement strategies for estimation of parameters for seawater intrusion. Despite the simplicity of the Henry problem, it embodies the behavior of a typical seawater intrusion situation in a single aquifer. Data collected from the numerical problem solution are employed without added noise in order to focus on the aspects of inverse modeling strategies dictated by the physics of variable-density flow and solute transport during seawater intrusion. Covariances of model parameters that can be estimated are strongly dependent on the physics. The insights gained from this type of analysis may be directly applied to field problems in the presence of data errors, using standard inverse modeling approaches to deal with uncertainty in data. Covariance analysis of the Henry problem indicates that in order to generally reduce variance of parameter estimates, the ideal places to measure pressure are as far away from the coast as possible, at any depth, and the ideal places to measure concentration are near the bottom of the aquifer between the center of the transition zone and its inland fringe. These observations are located in and near high-sensitivity regions of system parameters, which may be identified in a sensitivity analysis with respect to several parameters. However, both the form of error distribution in the observations and the observation weights impact the spatial sensitivity distributions, and different choices for error distributions or weights can result in significantly different regions of high sensitivity. Thus, in order to design effective sampling networks, the error form and weights must be carefully considered. For the Henry problem, permeability and freshwater inflow can be estimated with low estimation variance from only pressure or only concentration observations. Permeability, freshwater inflow, solute molecular diffusivity, and porosity can be estimated with roughly equivalent confidence using observations of only the logarithm of concentration. Furthermore, covariance analysis allows a logical reduction of the number of estimated parameters for ill-posed inverse seawater intrusion problems. Ill-posed problems may exhibit poor estimation convergence, have a non-unique solution, have multiple minima, or require excessive computational effort, and the condition often occurs when estimating too many or co-dependent parameters. For the Henry problem, such analysis allows selection of the two parameters that control system physics from among all possible system parameters. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Telemetry Standards, RCC Standard 106-17, Annex A.1, Pulse Amplitude Modulation Standards

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

conform to either Figure Error! No text of specified style in document.-1 or Figure Error! No text of specified style in document.-2. Figure Error...No text of specified style in document.-1. 50 percent duty cycle PAM with amplitude synchronization A 20-25 percent deviation reserved for pulse...synchronization is recommended. Telemetry Standards, RCC Standard 106-17 Annex A.1, July 2017 A.1.2 Figure Error! No text of specified style

Correlations between Preoperative Angle Parameters and Postoperative Unpredicted Refractive Errors after Cataract Surgery in Open Angle Glaucoma (AOD 500).

PubMed

Lee, Wonseok; Bae, Hyoung Won; Lee, Si Hyung; Kim, Chan Yun; Seong, Gong Je

2017-03-01

To assess the accuracy of intraocular lens (IOL) power prediction for cataract surgery with open angle glaucoma (OAG) and to identify preoperative angle parameters correlated with postoperative unpredicted refractive errors. This study comprised 45 eyes from 45 OAG subjects and 63 eyes from 63 non-glaucomatous cataract subjects (controls). We investigated differences in preoperative predicted refractive errors and postoperative refractive errors for each group. Preoperative predicted refractive errors were obtained by biometry (IOL-master) and compared to postoperative refractive errors measured by auto-refractometer 2 months postoperatively. Anterior angle parameters were determined using swept source optical coherence tomography. We investigated correlations between preoperative angle parameters [angle open distance (AOD); trabecular iris surface area (TISA); angle recess area (ARA); trabecular iris angle (TIA)] and postoperative unpredicted refractive errors. In patients with OAG, significant differences were noted between preoperative predicted and postoperative real refractive errors, with more myopia than predicted. No significant differences were recorded in controls. Angle parameters (AOD, ARA, TISA, and TIA) at the superior and inferior quadrant were significantly correlated with differences between predicted and postoperative refractive errors in OAG patients (-0.321 to -0.408, p<0.05). Superior quadrant AOD 500 was significantly correlated with postoperative refractive differences in multivariate linear regression analysis (β=-2.925, R²=0.404). Clinically unpredicted refractive errors after cataract surgery were more common in OAG than in controls. Certain preoperative angle parameters, especially AOD 500 at the superior quadrant, were significantly correlated with these unpredicted errors.

Correlations between Preoperative Angle Parameters and Postoperative Unpredicted Refractive Errors after Cataract Surgery in Open Angle Glaucoma (AOD 500)

PubMed Central

Lee, Wonseok; Bae, Hyoung Won; Lee, Si Hyung; Kim, Chan Yun

2017-01-01

Purpose To assess the accuracy of intraocular lens (IOL) power prediction for cataract surgery with open angle glaucoma (OAG) and to identify preoperative angle parameters correlated with postoperative unpredicted refractive errors. Materials and Methods This study comprised 45 eyes from 45 OAG subjects and 63 eyes from 63 non-glaucomatous cataract subjects (controls). We investigated differences in preoperative predicted refractive errors and postoperative refractive errors for each group. Preoperative predicted refractive errors were obtained by biometry (IOL-master) and compared to postoperative refractive errors measured by auto-refractometer 2 months postoperatively. Anterior angle parameters were determined using swept source optical coherence tomography. We investigated correlations between preoperative angle parameters [angle open distance (AOD); trabecular iris surface area (TISA); angle recess area (ARA); trabecular iris angle (TIA)] and postoperative unpredicted refractive errors. Results In patients with OAG, significant differences were noted between preoperative predicted and postoperative real refractive errors, with more myopia than predicted. No significant differences were recorded in controls. Angle parameters (AOD, ARA, TISA, and TIA) at the superior and inferior quadrant were significantly correlated with differences between predicted and postoperative refractive errors in OAG patients (-0.321 to -0.408, p<0.05). Superior quadrant AOD 500 was significantly correlated with postoperative refractive differences in multivariate linear regression analysis (β=-2.925, R2=0.404). Conclusion Clinically unpredicted refractive errors after cataract surgery were more common in OAG than in controls. Certain preoperative angle parameters, especially AOD 500 at the superior quadrant, were significantly correlated with these unpredicted errors. PMID:28120576

The statistical properties and possible causes of polar motion prediction errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosek, Wieslaw; Kalarus, Maciej; Wnek, Agnieszka; Zbylut-Gorska, Maria

2015-08-01

The pole coordinate data predictions from different prediction contributors of the Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPCPPP) were studied to determine the statistical properties of polar motion forecasts by looking at the time series of differences between them and the future IERS pole coordinates data. The mean absolute errors, standard deviations as well as the skewness and kurtosis of these differences were computed together with their error bars as a function of prediction length. The ensemble predictions show a little smaller mean absolute errors or standard deviations however their skewness and kurtosis values are similar as the for predictions from different contributors. The skewness and kurtosis enable to check whether these prediction differences satisfy normal distribution. The kurtosis values diminish with the prediction length which means that the probability distribution of these prediction differences is becoming more platykurtic than letptokurtic. Non zero skewness values result from oscillating character of these differences for particular prediction lengths which can be due to the irregular change of the annual oscillation phase in the joint fluid (atmospheric + ocean + land hydrology) excitation functions. The variations of the annual oscillation phase computed by the combination of the Fourier transform band pass filter and the Hilbert transform from pole coordinates data as well as from pole coordinates model data obtained from fluid excitations are in a good agreement.

Improving Empirical Magnetic Field Models by Fitting to In Situ Data Using an Optimized Parameter Approach

DOE PAGES

Brito, Thiago V.; Morley, Steven K.

2017-10-25

A method for comparing and optimizing the accuracy of empirical magnetic field models using in situ magnetic field measurements is presented in this paper. The optimization method minimizes a cost function—τ—that explicitly includes both a magnitude and an angular term. A time span of 21 days, including periods of mild and intense geomagnetic activity, was used for this analysis. A comparison between five magnetic field models (T96, T01S, T02, TS04, and TS07) widely used by the community demonstrated that the T02 model was, on average, the most accurate when driven by the standard model input parameters. The optimization procedure, performedmore » in all models except TS07, generally improved the results when compared to unoptimized versions of the models. Additionally, using more satellites in the optimization procedure produces more accurate results. This procedure reduces the number of large errors in the model, that is, it reduces the number of outliers in the error distribution. The TS04 model shows the most accurate results after the optimization in terms of both the magnitude and direction, when using at least six satellites in the fitting. It gave a smaller error than its unoptimized counterpart 57.3% of the time and outperformed the best unoptimized model (T02) 56.2% of the time. Its median percentage error in |B| was reduced from 4.54% to 3.84%. Finally, the difference among the models analyzed, when compared in terms of the median of the error distributions, is not very large. However, the unoptimized models can have very large errors, which are much reduced after the optimization.« less

Improving Empirical Magnetic Field Models by Fitting to In Situ Data Using an Optimized Parameter Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brito, Thiago V.; Morley, Steven K.

A method for comparing and optimizing the accuracy of empirical magnetic field models using in situ magnetic field measurements is presented in this paper. The optimization method minimizes a cost function—τ—that explicitly includes both a magnitude and an angular term. A time span of 21 days, including periods of mild and intense geomagnetic activity, was used for this analysis. A comparison between five magnetic field models (T96, T01S, T02, TS04, and TS07) widely used by the community demonstrated that the T02 model was, on average, the most accurate when driven by the standard model input parameters. The optimization procedure, performedmore » in all models except TS07, generally improved the results when compared to unoptimized versions of the models. Additionally, using more satellites in the optimization procedure produces more accurate results. This procedure reduces the number of large errors in the model, that is, it reduces the number of outliers in the error distribution. The TS04 model shows the most accurate results after the optimization in terms of both the magnitude and direction, when using at least six satellites in the fitting. It gave a smaller error than its unoptimized counterpart 57.3% of the time and outperformed the best unoptimized model (T02) 56.2% of the time. Its median percentage error in |B| was reduced from 4.54% to 3.84%. Finally, the difference among the models analyzed, when compared in terms of the median of the error distributions, is not very large. However, the unoptimized models can have very large errors, which are much reduced after the optimization.« less

Standardized volume rendering for magnetic resonance angiography measurements in the abdominal aorta.

PubMed

Persson, A; Brismar, T B; Lundström, C; Dahlström, N; Othberg, F; Smedby, O

2006-03-01

To compare three methods for standardizing volume rendering technique (VRT) protocols by studying aortic diameter measurements in magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) datasets. Datasets from 20 patients previously examined with gadolinium-enhanced MRA and with digital subtraction angiography (DSA) for abdominal aortic aneurysm were retrospectively evaluated by three independent readers. The MRA datasets were viewed using VRT with three different standardized transfer functions: the percentile method (Pc-VRT), the maximum-likelihood method (ML-VRT), and the partial range histogram method (PRH-VRT). The aortic diameters obtained with these three methods were compared with freely chosen VRT parameters (F-VRT) and with maximum intensity projection (MIP) concerning inter-reader variability and agreement with the reference method DSA. F-VRT parameters and PRH-VRT gave significantly higher diameter values than DSA, whereas Pc-VRT gave significantly lower values than DSA. The highest interobserver variability was found for F-VRT parameters and MIP, and the lowest for Pc-VRT and PRH-VRT. All standardized VRT methods were significantly superior to both MIP and F-VRT in this respect. The agreement with DSA was best for PRH-VRT, which was the only method with a mean error below 1 mm and which also had the narrowest limits of agreement (95% of cases between 2.1 mm below and 3.1 mm above DSA). All the standardized VRT methods compare favorably with MIP and VRT with freely selected parameters as regards interobserver variability. The partial range histogram method, although systematically overestimating vessel diameters, gives results closest to those of DSA.

Bias in error estimation when using cross-validation for model selection.

PubMed

Varma, Sudhir; Simon, Richard

2006-02-23

Cross-validation (CV) is an effective method for estimating the prediction error of a classifier. Some recent articles have proposed methods for optimizing classifiers by choosing classifier parameter values that minimize the CV error estimate. We have evaluated the validity of using the CV error estimate of the optimized classifier as an estimate of the true error expected on independent data. We used CV to optimize the classification parameters for two kinds of classifiers; Shrunken Centroids and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Random training datasets were created, with no difference in the distribution of the features between the two classes. Using these "null" datasets, we selected classifier parameter values that minimized the CV error estimate. 10-fold CV was used for Shrunken Centroids while Leave-One-Out-CV (LOOCV) was used for the SVM. Independent test data was created to estimate the true error. With "null" and "non null" (with differential expression between the classes) data, we also tested a nested CV procedure, where an inner CV loop is used to perform the tuning of the parameters while an outer CV is used to compute an estimate of the error. The CV error estimate for the classifier with the optimal parameters was found to be a substantially biased estimate of the true error that the classifier would incur on independent data. Even though there is no real difference between the two classes for the "null" datasets, the CV error estimate for the Shrunken Centroid with the optimal parameters was less than 30% on 18.5% of simulated training data-sets. For SVM with optimal parameters the estimated error rate was less than 30% on 38% of "null" data-sets. Performance of the optimized classifiers on the independent test set was no better than chance. The nested CV procedure reduces the bias considerably and gives an estimate of the error that is very close to that obtained on the independent testing set for both Shrunken Centroids and SVM classifiers for "null" and "non-null" data distributions. We show that using CV to compute an error estimate for a classifier that has itself been tuned using CV gives a significantly biased estimate of the true error. Proper use of CV for estimating true error of a classifier developed using a well defined algorithm requires that all steps of the algorithm, including classifier parameter tuning, be repeated in each CV loop. A nested CV procedure provides an almost unbiased estimate of the true error.

Machine Learning of Parameters for Accurate Semiempirical Quantum Chemical Calculations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dral, Pavlo O.; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Thiel, Walter

2015-05-12

We investigate possible improvements in the accuracy of semiempirical quantum chemistry (SQC) methods through the use of machine learning (ML) models for the parameters. For a given class of compounds, ML techniques require sufficiently large training sets to develop ML models that can be used for adapting SQC parameters to reflect changes in molecular composition and geometry. The ML-SQC approach allows the automatic tuning of SQC parameters for individual molecules, thereby improving the accuracy without deteriorating transferability to molecules with molecular descriptors very different from those in the training set. The performance of this approach is demonstrated for the semiempiricalmore » OM2 method using a set of 6095 constitutional isomers C7H10O2, for which accurate ab initio atomization enthalpies are available. The ML-OM2 results show improved average accuracy and a much reduced error range compared with those of standard OM2 results, with mean absolute errors in atomization enthalpies dropping from 6.3 to 1.7 kcal/mol. They are also found to be superior to the results from specific OM2 reparameterizations (rOM2) for the same set of isomers. The ML-SQC approach thus holds promise for fast and reasonably accurate high-throughput screening of materials and molecules.« less

Machine learning of parameters for accurate semiempirical quantum chemical calculations

DOE PAGES

Dral, Pavlo O.; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Thiel, Walter

2015-04-14

We investigate possible improvements in the accuracy of semiempirical quantum chemistry (SQC) methods through the use of machine learning (ML) models for the parameters. For a given class of compounds, ML techniques require sufficiently large training sets to develop ML models that can be used for adapting SQC parameters to reflect changes in molecular composition and geometry. The ML-SQC approach allows the automatic tuning of SQC parameters for individual molecules, thereby improving the accuracy without deteriorating transferability to molecules with molecular descriptors very different from those in the training set. The performance of this approach is demonstrated for the semiempiricalmore » OM2 method using a set of 6095 constitutional isomers C 7H 10O 2, for which accurate ab initio atomization enthalpies are available. The ML-OM2 results show improved average accuracy and a much reduced error range compared with those of standard OM2 results, with mean absolute errors in atomization enthalpies dropping from 6.3 to 1.7 kcal/mol. They are also found to be superior to the results from specific OM2 reparameterizations (rOM2) for the same set of isomers. The ML-SQC approach thus holds promise for fast and reasonably accurate high-throughput screening of materials and molecules.« less

Error Estimation for the Linearized Auto-Localization Algorithm

PubMed Central

Guevara, Jorge; Jiménez, Antonio R.; Prieto, Jose Carlos; Seco, Fernando

2012-01-01

The Linearized Auto-Localization (LAL) algorithm estimates the position of beacon nodes in Local Positioning Systems (LPSs), using only the distance measurements to a mobile node whose position is also unknown. The LAL algorithm calculates the inter-beacon distances, used for the estimation of the beacons’ positions, from the linearized trilateration equations. In this paper we propose a method to estimate the propagation of the errors of the inter-beacon distances obtained with the LAL algorithm, based on a first order Taylor approximation of the equations. Since the method depends on such approximation, a confidence parameter τ is defined to measure the reliability of the estimated error. Field evaluations showed that by applying this information to an improved weighted-based auto-localization algorithm (WLAL), the standard deviation of the inter-beacon distances can be improved by more than 30% on average with respect to the original LAL method. PMID:22736965

Evolving geometrical heterogeneities of fault trace data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wechsler, Neta; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Christofferson, Shari

2010-08-01

We perform a systematic comparative analysis of geometrical fault zone heterogeneities using derived measures from digitized fault maps that are not very sensitive to mapping resolution. We employ the digital GIS map of California faults (version 2.0) and analyse the surface traces of active strike-slip fault zones with evidence of Quaternary and historic movements. Each fault zone is broken into segments that are defined as a continuous length of fault bounded by changes of angle larger than 1°. Measurements of the orientations and lengths of fault zone segments are used to calculate the mean direction and misalignment of each fault zone from the local plate motion direction, and to define several quantities that represent the fault zone disorder. These include circular standard deviation and circular standard error of segments, orientation of long and short segments with respect to the mean direction, and normal separation distances of fault segments. We examine the correlations between various calculated parameters of fault zone disorder and the following three potential controlling variables: cumulative slip, slip rate and fault zone misalignment from the plate motion direction. The analysis indicates that the circular standard deviation and circular standard error of segments decrease overall with increasing cumulative slip and increasing slip rate of the fault zones. The results imply that the circular standard deviation and error, quantifying the range or dispersion in the data, provide effective measures of the fault zone disorder, and that the cumulative slip and slip rate (or more generally slip rate normalized by healing rate) represent the fault zone maturity. The fault zone misalignment from plate motion direction does not seem to play a major role in controlling the fault trace heterogeneities. The frequency-size statistics of fault segment lengths can be fitted well by an exponential function over the entire range of observations.

Nonuniformity correction for an infrared focal plane array based on diamond search block matching.

PubMed

Sheng-Hui, Rong; Hui-Xin, Zhou; Han-Lin, Qin; Rui, Lai; Kun, Qian

2016-05-01

In scene-based nonuniformity correction algorithms, artificial ghosting and image blurring degrade the correction quality severely. In this paper, an improved algorithm based on the diamond search block matching algorithm and the adaptive learning rate is proposed. First, accurate transform pairs between two adjacent frames are estimated by the diamond search block matching algorithm. Then, based on the error between the corresponding transform pairs, the gradient descent algorithm is applied to update correction parameters. During the process of gradient descent, the local standard deviation and a threshold are utilized to control the learning rate to avoid the accumulation of matching error. Finally, the nonuniformity correction would be realized by a linear model with updated correction parameters. The performance of the proposed algorithm is thoroughly studied with four real infrared image sequences. Experimental results indicate that the proposed algorithm can reduce the nonuniformity with less ghosting artifacts in moving areas and can also overcome the problem of image blurring in static areas.

Vanishing Point Extraction and Refinement for Robust Camera Calibration

PubMed Central

Tsai, Fuan

2017-01-01

This paper describes a flexible camera calibration method using refined vanishing points without prior information. Vanishing points are estimated from human-made features like parallel lines and repeated patterns. With the vanishing points extracted from the three mutually orthogonal directions, the interior and exterior orientation parameters can be further calculated using collinearity condition equations. A vanishing point refinement process is proposed to reduce the uncertainty caused by vanishing point localization errors. The fine-tuning algorithm is based on the divergence of grouped feature points projected onto the reference plane, minimizing the standard deviation of each of the grouped collinear points with an O(1) computational complexity. This paper also presents an automated vanishing point estimation approach based on the cascade Hough transform. The experiment results indicate that the vanishing point refinement process can significantly improve camera calibration parameters and the root mean square error (RMSE) of the constructed 3D model can be reduced by about 30%. PMID:29280966

Prediction of boiling points of organic compounds by QSPR tools.

PubMed

Dai, Yi-min; Zhu, Zhi-ping; Cao, Zhong; Zhang, Yue-fei; Zeng, Ju-lan; Li, Xun

2013-07-01

The novel electro-negativity topological descriptors of YC, WC were derived from molecular structure by equilibrium electro-negativity of atom and relative bond length of molecule. The quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPR) between descriptors of YC, WC as well as path number parameter P3 and the normal boiling points of 80 alkanes, 65 unsaturated hydrocarbons and 70 alcohols were obtained separately. The high-quality prediction models were evidenced by coefficient of determination (R(2)), the standard error (S), average absolute errors (AAE) and predictive parameters (Qext(2),RCV(2),Rm(2)). According to the regression equations, the influences of the length of carbon backbone, the size, the degree of branching of a molecule and the role of functional groups on the normal boiling point were analyzed. Comparison results with reference models demonstrated that novel topological descriptors based on the equilibrium electro-negativity of atom and the relative bond length were useful molecular descriptors for predicting the normal boiling points of organic compounds. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LAI inversion from optical reflectance using a neural network trained with a multiple scattering model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

1992-01-01

The inversion of the leaf area index (LAI) canopy parameter from optical spectral reflectance measurements is obtained using a backpropagation artificial neural network trained using input-output pairs generated by a multiple scattering reflectance model. The problem of LAI estimation over sparse canopies (LAI < 1.0) with varying soil reflectance backgrounds is particularly difficult. Standard multiple regression methods applied to canopies within a single homogeneous soil type yield good results but perform unacceptably when applied across soil boundaries, resulting in absolute percentage errors of >1000 percent for low LAI. Minimization methods applied to merit functions constructed from differences between measured reflectances and predicted reflectances using multiple-scattering models are unacceptably sensitive to a good initial guess for the desired parameter. In contrast, the neural network reported generally yields absolute percentage errors of <30 percent when weighting coefficients trained on one soil type were applied to predicted canopy reflectance at a different soil background.

About problematic peculiarities of Fault Tolerance digital regulation organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakov, V. I.; Zakharova, O. V.

2018-05-01

The solution of problems concerning estimation of working capacity of regulation chains and possibilities of preventing situations of its violation in three directions are offered. The first direction is working out (creating) the methods of representing the regulation loop (circuit) by means of uniting (combining) diffuse components and forming algorithmic tooling for building predicates of serviceability assessment separately for the components and the for regulation loops (circuits, contours) in general. The second direction is creating methods of Fault Tolerance redundancy in the process of complex assessment of current values of control actions, closure errors and their regulated parameters. The third direction is creating methods of comparing the processes of alteration (change) of control actions, errors of closure and regulating parameters with their standard models or their surroundings. This direction allows one to develop methods and algorithmic tool means, aimed at preventing loss of serviceability and effectiveness of not only a separate digital regulator, but also the whole complex of Fault Tolerance regulation.

SEPARABLE FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATIONS TO MORTALITY DATA

PubMed Central

Fosdick, Bailey K.; Hoff, Peter D.

2014-01-01

Human mortality data sets can be expressed as multiway data arrays, the dimensions of which correspond to categories by which mortality rates are reported, such as age, sex, country and year. Regression models for such data typically assume an independent error distribution or an error model that allows for dependence along at most one or two dimensions of the data array. However, failing to account for other dependencies can lead to inefficient estimates of regression parameters, inaccurate standard errors and poor predictions. An alternative to assuming independent errors is to allow for dependence along each dimension of the array using a separable covariance model. However, the number of parameters in this model increases rapidly with the dimensions of the array and, for many arrays, maximum likelihood estimates of the covariance parameters do not exist. In this paper, we propose a submodel of the separable covariance model that estimates the covariance matrix for each dimension as having factor analytic structure. This model can be viewed as an extension of factor analysis to array-valued data, as it uses a factor model to estimate the covariance along each dimension of the array. We discuss properties of this model as they relate to ordinary factor analysis, describe maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods, and provide a likelihood ratio testing procedure for selecting the factor model ranks. We apply this methodology to the analysis of data from the Human Mortality Database, and show in a cross-validation experiment how it outperforms simpler methods. Additionally, we use this model to impute mortality rates for countries that have no mortality data for several years. Unlike other approaches, our methodology is able to estimate similarities between the mortality rates of countries, time periods and sexes, and use this information to assist with the imputations. PMID:25489353

Modeling Input Errors to Improve Uncertainty Estimates for Sediment Transport Model Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J. Y.; Niemann, J. D.; Greimann, B. P.

2016-12-01

Bayesian methods using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms have recently been applied to sediment transport models to assess the uncertainty in the model predictions due to the parameter values. Unfortunately, the existing approaches can only attribute overall uncertainty to the parameters. This limitation is critical because no model can produce accurate forecasts if forced with inaccurate input data, even if the model is well founded in physical theory. In this research, an existing Bayesian method is modified to consider the potential errors in input data during the uncertainty evaluation process. The input error is modeled using Gaussian distributions, and the means and standard deviations are treated as uncertain parameters. The proposed approach is tested by coupling it to the Sedimentation and River Hydraulics - One Dimension (SRH-1D) model and simulating a 23-km reach of the Tachia River in Taiwan. The Wu equation in SRH-1D is used for computing the transport capacity for a bed material load of non-cohesive material. Three types of input data are considered uncertain: (1) the input flowrate at the upstream boundary, (2) the water surface elevation at the downstream boundary, and (3) the water surface elevation at a hydraulic structure in the middle of the reach. The benefits of modeling the input errors in the uncertainty analysis are evaluated by comparing the accuracy of the most likely forecast and the coverage of the observed data by the credible intervals to those of the existing method. The results indicate that the internal boundary condition has the largest uncertainty among those considered. Overall, the uncertainty estimates from the new method are notably different from those of the existing method for both the calibration and forecast periods.

A comparison of two estimates of standard error for a ratio-of-means estimator for a mapped-plot sample design in southeast Alaska.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. van Hees

2002-01-01

Comparisons of estimated standard error for a ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator are presented for forest resource inventories conducted in southeast Alaska between 1995 and 2000. Estimated standard errors for the ROM were generated by using a traditional variance estimator and also approximated by bootstrap methods. Estimates of standard error generated by both...

Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

PubMed

Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

Toward Joint Hypothesis-Tests Seismic Event Screening Analysis: Ms|mb and Event Depth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Dale; Selby, Neil

2012-08-14

Well established theory can be used to combine single-phenomenology hypothesis tests into a multi-phenomenology event screening hypothesis test (Fisher's and Tippett's tests). Commonly used standard error in Ms:mb event screening hypothesis test is not fully consistent with physical basis. Improved standard error - Better agreement with physical basis, and correctly partitions error to include Model Error as a component of variance, correctly reduces station noise variance through network averaging. For 2009 DPRK test - Commonly used standard error 'rejects' H0 even with better scaling slope ({beta} = 1, Selby et al.), improved standard error 'fails to rejects' H0.

The two errors of using the within-subject standard deviation (WSD) as the standard error of a reliable change index.

PubMed

Maassen, Gerard H

2010-08-01

In this Journal, Lewis and colleagues introduced a new Reliable Change Index (RCI(WSD)), which incorporated the within-subject standard deviation (WSD) of a repeated measurement design as the standard error. In this note, two opposite errors in using WSD this way are demonstrated. First, being the standard error of measurement of only a single assessment makes WSD too small when practice effects are absent. Then, too many individuals will be designated reliably changed. Second, WSD can grow unlimitedly to the extent that differential practice effects occur. This can even make RCI(WSD) unable to detect any reliable change.

Monitoring Instrument Performance in Regional Broadband Seismic Network Using Ambient Seismic Noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, F.; Lyu, S.; Lin, J.

2017-12-01

In the past ten years, the number of seismic stations has increased significantly, and regional seismic networks with advanced technology have been gradually developed all over the world. The resulting broadband data help to improve the seismological research. It is important to monitor the performance of broadband instruments in a new network in a long period of time to ensure the accuracy of seismic records. Here, we propose a method that uses ambient noise data in the period range 5-25 s to monitor instrument performance and check data quality in situ. The method is based on an analysis of amplitude and phase index parameters calculated from pairwise cross-correlations of three stations, which provides multiple references for reliable error estimates. Index parameters calculated daily during a two-year observation period are evaluated to identify stations with instrument response errors in near real time. During data processing, initial instrument responses are used in place of available instrument responses to simulate instrument response errors, which are then used to verify our results. We also examine feasibility of the tailing noise using data from stations selected from USArray in different locations and analyze the possible instrumental errors resulting in time-shifts used to verify the method. Additionally, we show an application that effects of instrument response errors that experience pole-zeros variations on monitoring temporal variations in crustal properties appear statistically significant velocity perturbation larger than the standard deviation. The results indicate that monitoring seismic instrument performance helps eliminate data pollution before analysis begins.

A Modified MinMax k-Means Algorithm Based on PSO.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoyan; Bai, Yanping

The MinMax k -means algorithm is widely used to tackle the effect of bad initialization by minimizing the maximum intraclustering errors. Two parameters, including the exponent parameter and memory parameter, are involved in the executive process. Since different parameters have different clustering errors, it is crucial to choose appropriate parameters. In the original algorithm, a practical framework is given. Such framework extends the MinMax k -means to automatically adapt the exponent parameter to the data set. It has been believed that if the maximum exponent parameter has been set, then the programme can reach the lowest intraclustering errors. However, our experiments show that this is not always correct. In this paper, we modified the MinMax k -means algorithm by PSO to determine the proper values of parameters which can subject the algorithm to attain the lowest clustering errors. The proposed clustering method is tested on some favorite data sets in several different initial situations and is compared to the k -means algorithm and the original MinMax k -means algorithm. The experimental results indicate that our proposed algorithm can reach the lowest clustering errors automatically.

Improving Estimates Of Phase Parameters When Amplitude Fluctuates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vilnrotter, V. A.; Brown, D. H.; Hurd, W. J.

1989-01-01

Adaptive inverse filter applied to incoming signal and noise. Time-varying inverse-filtering technique developed to improve digital estimate of phase of received carrier signal. Intended for use where received signal fluctuates in amplitude as well as in phase and signal tracked by digital phase-locked loop that keeps its phase error much smaller than 1 radian. Useful in navigation systems, reception of time- and frequency-standard signals, and possibly spread-spectrum communication systems.

Traveltime inversion and error analysis for layered anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fan; Zhou, Hua-wei

2011-02-01

While tilted transverse isotropy (TTI) is a good approximation of the velocity structure for many dipping and fractured strata, it is still challenging to estimate anisotropic depth models even when the tilted angle is known. With the assumption of weak anisotropy, we present a TTI traveltime inversion approach for models consisting of several thickness-varying layers where the anisotropic parameters are constant for each layer. For each model layer the inversion variables consist of the anisotropic parameters ɛ and δ, the tilted angle φ of its symmetry axis, layer velocity along the symmetry axis, and thickness variation of the layer. Using this method and synthetic data, we evaluate the effects of errors in some of the model parameters on the inverted values of the other parameters in crosswell and Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) acquisition geometry. The analyses show that the errors in the layer symmetry axes sensitively affect the inverted values of other parameters, especially δ. However, the impact of errors in δ on the inversion of other parameters is much less than the impact on δ from the errors in other parameters. Hence, a practical strategy is first to invert for the most error-tolerant parameter layer velocity, then progressively invert for ɛ in crosswell geometry or δ in VSP geometry.

Padé Approximant and Minimax Rational Approximation in Standard Cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaninetti, Lorenzo

2016-02-01

The luminosity distance in the standard cosmology as given by $\\Lambda$CDM and consequently the distance modulus for supernovae can be defined by the Pad\\'e approximant. A comparison with a known analytical solution shows that the Pad\\'e approximant for the luminosity distance has an error of $4\\%$ at redshift $= 10$. A similar procedure for the Taylor expansion of the luminosity distance gives an error of $4\\%$ at redshift $=0.7 $; this means that for the luminosity distance, the Pad\\'e approximation is superior to the Taylor series. The availability of an analytical expression for the distance modulus allows applying the Levenberg--Marquardt method to derive the fundamental parameters from the available compilations for supernovae. A new luminosity function for galaxies derived from the truncated gamma probability density function models the observed luminosity function for galaxies when the observed range in absolute magnitude is modeled by the Pad\\'e approximant. A comparison of $\\Lambda$CDM with other cosmologies is done adopting a statistical point of view.

Intestinal helminths induce haematological changes in dogs from Jabalpur, India.

PubMed

Qadir, S; Dixit, A K; Dixit, P; Sharma, R L

2011-12-01

The effect of canine intestinal helminths on the haematological profile of 200 dogs, of both sexes and variable age, visiting university veterinary clinics for routine examination was investigated. The dogs were assigned to parasitized (n = 39) and non-parasitized (n = 161) groups of animals. Coprological examination revealed a 19.5% prevalence of different species of the helminths. Of these animals, 10.25% had mixed infections with Ancylostoma caninum, Toxascaris spp. and Dipylidium caninum. The intensity of A. caninum infection was the highest, with mean egg counts of 951.43 (standard error 88.66), followed by Toxascaris 283.33 (standard error 116.81) and D. caninum. The parasitized animals had significantly lower levels of haemoglobin, packed cell volume and total erythrocyte counts than non-parasitized animals (P < 0.01). Values of other parameters, except for lymphocytes and eosinophils, were not different between the two groups. Analyses of the haematological profile revealed normocytic hypochromic anaemia in the parasitized group of animals.

Architecture overview and data summary of a 5.4 km free-space laser communication experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moores, John D.; Walther, Frederick G.; Greco, Joseph A.; Michael, Steven; Wilcox, William E., Jr.; Volpicelli, Alicia M.; Magliocco, Richard J.; Henion, Scott R.

2009-08-01

MIT Lincoln Laboratory designed and built two free-space laser communications terminals, and successfully demonstrated error-free communication between two ground sites separated by 5.4 km in September, 2008. The primary goal of this work was to emulate a low elevation angle air-to-ground link capable of supporting standard OTU1 (2.667 Gb/s) data formatting with standard client interfaces. Mitigation of turbulence-induced scintillation effects was accomplished through the use of multiple small-aperture receivers and novel encoding and interleaver hardware. Data from both the field and laboratory experiments were used to assess link performance as a function of system parameters such as transmitted power, degree of spatial diversity, and interleaver span, with and without forward error correction. This work was sponsored by the Department of Defense, RRCO DDR&E, under Air Force Contract FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.

Sampling design optimization for spatial functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olea, R.A.

1984-01-01

A new procedure is presented for minimizing the sampling requirements necessary to estimate a mappable spatial function at a specified level of accuracy. The technique is based on universal kriging, an estimation method within the theory of regionalized variables. Neither actual implementation of the sampling nor universal kriging estimations are necessary to make an optimal design. The average standard error and maximum standard error of estimation over the sampling domain are used as global indices of sampling efficiency. The procedure optimally selects those parameters controlling the magnitude of the indices, including the density and spatial pattern of the sample elements and the number of nearest sample elements used in the estimation. As an illustration, the network of observation wells used to monitor the water table in the Equus Beds of Kansas is analyzed and an improved sampling pattern suggested. This example demonstrates the practical utility of the procedure, which can be applied equally well to other spatial sampling problems, as the procedure is not limited by the nature of the spatial function. ?? 1984 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Comparative study on the performance of textural image features for active contour segmentation.

PubMed

Moraru, Luminita; Moldovanu, Simona

2012-07-01

We present a computerized method for the semi-automatic detection of contours in ultrasound images. The novelty of our study is the introduction of a fast and efficient image function relating to parametric active contour models. This new function is a combination of the gray-level information and first-order statistical features, called standard deviation parameters. In a comprehensive study, the developed algorithm and the efficiency of segmentation were first tested for synthetic images. Tests were also performed on breast and liver ultrasound images. The proposed method was compared with the watershed approach to show its efficiency. The performance of the segmentation was estimated using the area error rate. Using the standard deviation textural feature and a 5×5 kernel, our curve evolution was able to produce results close to the minimal area error rate (namely 8.88% for breast images and 10.82% for liver images). The image resolution was evaluated using the contrast-to-gradient method. The experiments showed promising segmentation results.

Integration of Error Compensation of Coordinate Measuring Machines into Feature Measurement: Part I—Model Development

PubMed Central

Calvo, Roque; D’Amato, Roberto; Gómez, Emilio; Domingo, Rosario

2016-01-01

The development of an error compensation model for coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) and its integration into feature measurement is presented. CMMs are widespread and dependable instruments in industry and laboratories for dimensional measurement. From the tip probe sensor to the machine display, there is a complex transformation of probed point coordinates through the geometrical feature model that makes the assessment of accuracy and uncertainty measurement results difficult. Therefore, error compensation is not standardized, conversely to other simpler instruments. Detailed coordinate error compensation models are generally based on CMM as a rigid-body and it requires a detailed mapping of the CMM’s behavior. In this paper a new model type of error compensation is proposed. It evaluates the error from the vectorial composition of length error by axis and its integration into the geometrical measurement model. The non-explained variability by the model is incorporated into the uncertainty budget. Model parameters are analyzed and linked to the geometrical errors and uncertainty of CMM response. Next, the outstanding measurement models of flatness, angle, and roundness are developed. The proposed models are useful for measurement improvement with easy integration into CMM signal processing, in particular in industrial environments where built-in solutions are sought. A battery of implementation tests are presented in Part II, where the experimental endorsement of the model is included. PMID:27690052

TU-FG-201-03: Automatic Pre-Delivery Verification Using Statistical Analysis of Consistencies in Treatment Plan Parameters by the Treatment Site and Modality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, S; Wu, Y; Chang, X

Purpose: A novel computer software system, namely APDV (Automatic Pre-Delivery Verification), has been developed for verifying patient treatment plan parameters right prior to treatment deliveries in order to automatically detect and prevent catastrophic errors. Methods: APDV is designed to continuously monitor new DICOM plan files on the TMS computer at the treatment console. When new plans to be delivered are detected, APDV checks the consistencies of plan parameters and high-level plan statistics using underlying rules and statistical properties based on given treatment site, technique and modality. These rules were quantitatively derived by retrospectively analyzing all the EBRT treatment plans ofmore » the past 8 years at authors’ institution. Therapists and physicists will be notified with a warning message displayed on the TMS computer if any critical errors are detected, and check results, confirmation, together with dismissal actions will be saved into database for further review. Results: APDV was implemented as a stand-alone program using C# to ensure required real time performance. Mean values and standard deviations were quantitatively derived for various plan parameters including MLC usage, MU/cGy radio, beam SSD, beam weighting, and the beam gantry angles (only for lateral targets) per treatment site, technique and modality. 2D-based rules of combined MU/cGy ratio and averaged SSD values were also derived using joint probabilities of confidence error ellipses. The statistics of these major treatment plan parameters quantitatively evaluate the consistency of any treatment plans which facilitates automatic APDV checking procedures. Conclusion: APDV could be useful in detecting and preventing catastrophic errors immediately before treatment deliveries. Future plan including automatic patient identify and patient setup checks after patient daily images are acquired by the machine and become available on the TMS computer. This project is supported by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) under award 1R01HS0222888. The senior author received research grants from ViewRay Inc. and Varian Medical System.« less

The impact of experimental measurement errors on long-term viscoelastic predictions. [of structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tuttle, M. E.; Brinson, H. F.

1986-01-01

The impact of flight error in measured viscoelastic parameters on subsequent long-term viscoelastic predictions is numerically evaluated using the Schapery nonlinear viscoelastic model. Of the seven Schapery parameters, the results indicated that long-term predictions were most sensitive to errors in the power law parameter n. Although errors in the other parameters were significant as well, errors in n dominated all other factors at long times. The process of selecting an appropriate short-term test cycle so as to insure an accurate long-term prediction was considered, and a short-term test cycle was selected using material properties typical for T300/5208 graphite-epoxy at 149 C. The process of selection is described, and its individual steps are itemized.

The Ultrasonic Directional Tidal Breathing Pattern Sensor: Equitable Design Realization Based on Phase Information

PubMed Central

Sinharay, Arijit; Rakshit, Raj; Chakravarty, Tapas; Ghosh, Deb; Pal, Arpan

2017-01-01

Pulmonary ailments are conventionally diagnosed by spirometry. The complex forceful breathing maneuver as well as the extreme cost of spirometry renders it unsuitable in many situations. This work is aimed to facilitate an emerging direction of tidal breathing-based pulmonary evaluation by designing a novel, equitable, precise and portable device for acquisition and analysis of directional tidal breathing patterns, in real time. The proposed system primarily uses an in-house designed blow pipe, 40-kHz air-coupled ultrasound transreceivers, and a radio frequency (RF) phase-gain integrated circuit (IC). Moreover, in order to achieve high sensitivity in a cost-effective design philosophy, we have exploited the phase measurement technique, instead of selecting the contemporary time-of-flight (TOF) measurement; since application of the TOF principle in tidal breathing assessments requires sub-micro to nanosecond time resolution. This approach, which depends on accurate phase measurement, contributed to enhanced sensitivity using a simple electronics design. The developed system has been calibrated using a standard 3-L calibration syringe. The parameters of this system are validated against a standard spirometer, with maximum percentage error below 16%. Further, the extracted respiratory parameters related to tidal breathing have been found to be comparable with relevant prior works. The error in detecting respiration rate only is 3.9% compared to manual evaluation. These encouraging insights reveal the definite potential of our tidal breathing pattern (TBP) prototype for measuring tidal breathing parameters in order to extend the reach of affordable healthcare in rural regions and developing areas. PMID:28800103

How do geometry-related parameters influence the clinical performance of orthodontic mini-implants? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cunha, A C; da Veiga, A M A; Masterson, D; Mattos, C T; Nojima, L I; Nojima, M C G; Maia, L C

2017-12-01

The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to investigate how parameters related to geometry influence the clinical performance of orthodontic mini-implants (MIs). Systematic searches were performed in electronic databases including MEDLINE, Scopus, Web of Science, Virtual Health Library, and Cochrane Library and reference lists up to March 2016. Eligibility criteria comprised clinical studies involving patients who received MIs for orthodontic anchorage, with data for categories of MI dimension, shape, and thread design and insertion site, and evaluated by assessment of primary and secondary stability. Study selection, data extraction, quality assessment, and a meta-analysis were carried out. Twenty-seven studies were included in the qualitative synthesis: five randomized, eight prospective, and 14 retrospective clinical studies. One study with a serious risk of bias was later excluded. Medium and short MIs (1.4-1.9mm diameter and 5-8mm length) presented the highest success rates (0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.92). A maximum insertion torque of 13.28Ncm (standard error 0.34) was observed for tapered self-drilling MIs in the mandible, whereas cylindrical MIs in the maxilla presented a maximum removal torque of 10.01Ncm (standard error 0.17). Moderate evidence indicates that the clinical performance of MIs is influenced by implant geometry parameters and is also related to properties of the insertion site. However, further research is necessary to support these associations. Copyright © 2017 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2013-01-01

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

A New Formulation of the Filter-Error Method for Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation in Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grauer, Jared A.; Morelli, Eugene A.

2015-01-01

A new formulation of the filter-error method for estimating aerodynamic parameters in nonlinear aircraft dynamic models during turbulence was developed and demonstrated. The approach uses an estimate of the measurement noise covariance to identify the model parameters, their uncertainties, and the process noise covariance, in a relaxation method analogous to the output-error method. Prior information on the model parameters and uncertainties can be supplied, and a post-estimation correction to the uncertainty was included to account for colored residuals not considered in the theory. No tuning parameters, needing adjustment by the analyst, are used in the estimation. The method was demonstrated in simulation using the NASA Generic Transport Model, then applied to the subscale T-2 jet-engine transport aircraft flight. Modeling results in different levels of turbulence were compared with results from time-domain output error and frequency- domain equation error methods to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Evaluating flow cytometer performance with weighted quadratic least squares analysis of LED and multi-level bead data

PubMed Central

Parks, David R.; Khettabi, Faysal El; Chase, Eric; Hoffman, Robert A.; Perfetto, Stephen P.; Spidlen, Josef; Wood, James C.S.; Moore, Wayne A.; Brinkman, Ryan R.

2017-01-01

We developed a fully automated procedure for analyzing data from LED pulses and multi-level bead sets to evaluate backgrounds and photoelectron scales of cytometer fluorescence channels. The method improves on previous formulations by fitting a full quadratic model with appropriate weighting and by providing standard errors and peak residuals as well as the fitted parameters themselves. Here we describe the details of the methods and procedures involved and present a set of illustrations and test cases that demonstrate the consistency and reliability of the results. The automated analysis and fitting procedure is generally quite successful in providing good estimates of the Spe (statistical photoelectron) scales and backgrounds for all of the fluorescence channels on instruments with good linearity. The precision of the results obtained from LED data is almost always better than for multi-level bead data, but the bead procedure is easy to carry out and provides results good enough for most purposes. Including standard errors on the fitted parameters is important for understanding the uncertainty in the values of interest. The weighted residuals give information about how well the data fits the model, and particularly high residuals indicate bad data points. Known photoelectron scales and measurement channel backgrounds make it possible to estimate the precision of measurements at different signal levels and the effects of compensated spectral overlap on measurement quality. Combining this information with measurements of standard samples carrying dyes of biological interest, we can make accurate comparisons of dye sensitivity among different instruments. Our method is freely available through the R/Bioconductor package flowQB. PMID:28160404

Estimating riparian understory vegetation cover with beta regression and copula models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Madsen, Lisa; Hagar, Joan C.; Temesgen, Hailemariam

2011-01-01

Understory vegetation communities are critical components of forest ecosystems. As a result, the importance of modeling understory vegetation characteristics in forested landscapes has become more apparent. Abundance measures such as shrub cover are bounded between 0 and 1, exhibit heteroscedastic error variance, and are often subject to spatial dependence. These distributional features tend to be ignored when shrub cover data are analyzed. The beta distribution has been used successfully to describe the frequency distribution of vegetation cover. Beta regression models ignoring spatial dependence (BR) and accounting for spatial dependence (BRdep) were used to estimate percent shrub cover as a function of topographic conditions and overstory vegetation structure in riparian zones in western Oregon. The BR models showed poor explanatory power (pseudo-R2 ≤ 0.34) but outperformed ordinary least-squares (OLS) and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression models with logit-transformed response in terms of mean square prediction error and absolute bias. We introduce a copula (COP) model that is based on the beta distribution and accounts for spatial dependence. A simulation study was designed to illustrate the effects of incorrectly assuming normality, equal variance, and spatial independence. It showed that BR, BRdep, and COP models provide unbiased parameter estimates, whereas OLS and GLS models result in slightly biased estimates for two of the three parameters. On the basis of the simulation study, 93–97% of the GLS, BRdep, and COP confidence intervals covered the true parameters, whereas OLS and BR only resulted in 84–88% coverage, which demonstrated the superiority of GLS, BRdep, and COP over OLS and BR models in providing standard errors for the parameter estimates in the presence of spatial dependence.

Regression without truth with Markov chain Monte-Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madan, Hennadii; Pernuš, Franjo; Likar, Boštjan; Å piclin, Žiga

2017-03-01

Regression without truth (RWT) is a statistical technique for estimating error model parameters of each method in a group of methods used for measurement of a certain quantity. A very attractive aspect of RWT is that it does not rely on a reference method or "gold standard" data, which is otherwise difficult RWT was used for a reference-free performance comparison of several methods for measuring left ventricular ejection fraction (EF), i.e. a percentage of blood leaving the ventricle each time the heart contracts, and has since been applied for various other quantitative imaging biomarkerss (QIBs). Herein, we show how Markov chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC), a computational technique for drawing samples from a statistical distribution with probability density function known only up to a normalizing coefficient, can be used to augment RWT to gain a number of important benefits compared to the original approach based on iterative optimization. For instance, the proposed MCMC-based RWT enables the estimation of joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the error model, straightforward quantification of uncertainty of the estimates, estimation of true value of the measurand and corresponding credible intervals (CIs), does not require a finite support for prior distribution of the measureand generally has a much improved robustness against convergence to non-global maxima. The proposed approach is validated using synthetic data that emulate the EF data for 45 patients measured with 8 different methods. The obtained results show that 90% CI of the corresponding parameter estimates contain the true values of all error model parameters and the measurand. A potential real-world application is to take measurements of a certain QIB several different methods and then use the proposed framework to compute the estimates of the true values and their uncertainty, a vital information for diagnosis based on QIB.

Archie's law - a reappraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, Paul W. J.

2016-07-01

When scientists apply Archie's first law they often include an extra parameter a, which was introduced about 10 years after the equation's first publication by Winsauer et al. (1952), and which is sometimes called the "tortuosity" or "lithology" parameter. This parameter is not, however, theoretically justified. Paradoxically, the Winsauer et al. (1952) form of Archie's law often performs better than the original, more theoretically correct version. The difference in the cementation exponent calculated from these two forms of Archie's law is important, and can lead to a misestimation of reserves by at least 20 % for typical reservoir parameter values. We have examined the apparent paradox, and conclude that while the theoretical form of the law is correct, the data that we have been analysing with Archie's law have been in error. There are at least three types of systematic error that are present in most measurements: (i) a porosity error, (ii) a pore fluid salinity error, and (iii) a temperature error. Each of these systematic errors is sufficient to ensure that a non-unity value of the parameter a is required in order to fit the electrical data well. Fortunately, the inclusion of this parameter in the fit has compensated for the presence of the systematic errors in the electrical and porosity data, leading to a value of cementation exponent that is correct. The exceptions are those cementation exponents that have been calculated for individual core plugs. We make a number of recommendations for reducing the systematic errors that contribute to the problem and suggest that the value of the parameter a may now be used as an indication of data quality.

Dual learning processes underlying human decision-making in reversal learning tasks: functional significance and evidence from the model fit to human behavior

PubMed Central

Bai, Yu; Katahira, Kentaro; Ohira, Hideki

2014-01-01

Humans are capable of correcting their actions based on actions performed in the past, and this ability enables them to adapt to a changing environment. The computational field of reinforcement learning (RL) has provided a powerful explanation for understanding such processes. Recently, the dual learning system, modeled as a hybrid model that incorporates value update based on reward-prediction error and learning rate modulation based on the surprise signal, has gained attention as a model for explaining various neural signals. However, the functional significance of the hybrid model has not been established. In the present study, we used computer simulation in a reversal learning task to address functional significance in a probabilistic reversal learning task. The hybrid model was found to perform better than the standard RL model in a large parameter setting. These results suggest that the hybrid model is more robust against the mistuning of parameters compared with the standard RL model when decision-makers continue to learn stimulus-reward contingencies, which can create abrupt changes. The parameter fitting results also indicated that the hybrid model fit better than the standard RL model for more than 50% of the participants, which suggests that the hybrid model has more explanatory power for the behavioral data than the standard RL model. PMID:25161635

Development of a Tri-Axial Cutting Force Sensor for the Milling Process

PubMed Central

Li, Yingxue; Zhao, Yulong; Fei, Jiyou; Zhao, You; Li, Xiuyuan; Gao, Yunxiang

2016-01-01

This paper presents a three-component fixed dynamometer based on a strain gauge, which reduces output errors produced by the cutting force imposed on different milling positions of the workpiece. A reformative structure of tri-layer cross beams is proposed, sensitive areas were selected, and corresponding measuring circuits were arranged to decrease the inaccuracy brought about by positional variation. To simulate the situation with a milling cutter moving on the workpiece and validate the function of reducing the output errors when the milling position changes, both static calibration and dynamic milling tests were implemented on different parts of the workpiece. Static experiment results indicate that with standard loads imposed, the maximal deviation between the measured forces and the standard inputs is 4.87%. The results of the dynamic milling test illustrate that with identical machining parameters, the differences in output variation between the developed sensor and standard dynamometer are no larger than 6.61%. Both static and dynamic experimental results demonstrate that the developed dynamometer is suitable for measuring milling force imposed on different positions of the workpiece, which shows potential applicability in machining a monitoring system. PMID:27007374

Comparison of estimators of standard deviation for hydrologic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Gilroy, Edward J.

1982-01-01

Unbiasing factors as a function of serial correlation, ρ, and sample size, n for the sample standard deviation of a lag one autoregressive model were generated by random number simulation. Monte Carlo experiments were used to compare the performance of several alternative methods for estimating the standard deviation σ of a lag one autoregressive model in terms of bias, root mean square error, probability of underestimation, and expected opportunity design loss. Three methods provided estimates of σ which were much less biased but had greater mean square errors than the usual estimate of σ: s = (1/(n - 1) ∑ (xi −x¯)2)½. The three methods may be briefly characterized as (1) a method using a maximum likelihood estimate of the unbiasing factor, (2) a method using an empirical Bayes estimate of the unbiasing factor, and (3) a robust nonparametric estimate of σ suggested by Quenouille. Because s tends to underestimate σ, its use as an estimate of a model parameter results in a tendency to underdesign. If underdesign losses are considered more serious than overdesign losses, then the choice of one of the less biased methods may be wise.

Numerically accurate computational techniques for optimal estimator analyses of multi-parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Lukas; Kleinheinz, Konstantin; Attili, Antonio; Bisetti, Fabrizio; Pitsch, Heinz; Mueller, Michael E.

2018-05-01

Modelling unclosed terms in partial differential equations typically involves two steps: First, a set of known quantities needs to be specified as input parameters for a model, and second, a specific functional form needs to be defined to model the unclosed terms by the input parameters. Both steps involve a certain modelling error, with the former known as the irreducible error and the latter referred to as the functional error. Typically, only the total modelling error, which is the sum of functional and irreducible error, is assessed, but the concept of the optimal estimator enables the separate analysis of the total and the irreducible errors, yielding a systematic modelling error decomposition. In this work, attention is paid to the techniques themselves required for the practical computation of irreducible errors. Typically, histograms are used for optimal estimator analyses, but this technique is found to add a non-negligible spurious contribution to the irreducible error if models with multiple input parameters are assessed. Thus, the error decomposition of an optimal estimator analysis becomes inaccurate, and misleading conclusions concerning modelling errors may be drawn. In this work, numerically accurate techniques for optimal estimator analyses are identified and a suitable evaluation of irreducible errors is presented. Four different computational techniques are considered: a histogram technique, artificial neural networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and an additive model based on a kernel method. For multiple input parameter models, only artificial neural networks and multivariate adaptive regression splines are found to yield satisfactorily accurate results. Beyond a certain number of input parameters, the assessment of models in an optimal estimator analysis even becomes practically infeasible if histograms are used. The optimal estimator analysis in this paper is applied to modelling the filtered soot intermittency in large eddy simulations using a dataset of a direct numerical simulation of a non-premixed sooting turbulent flame.

The application of robotics to microlaryngeal laser surgery.

PubMed

Buckmire, Robert A; Wong, Yu-Tung; Deal, Allison M

2015-06-01

To evaluate the performance of human subjects, using a prototype robotic micromanipulator controller in a simulated, microlaryngeal operative setting. Observational cross-sectional study. Twenty-two human subjects with varying degrees of laser experience performed CO2 laser surgical tasks within a simulated microlaryngeal operative setting using an industry standard manual micromanipulator (MMM) and a prototype robotic micromanipulator controller (RMC). Accuracy, repeatability, and ablation consistency measures were obtained for each human subject across both conditions and for the preprogrammed RMC device. Using the standard MMM, surgeons with >10 previous laser cases performed superior to subjects with fewer cases on measures of error percentage and cumulative error (P = .045 and .03, respectively). No significant differences in performance were observed between subjects using the RMC device. In the programmed (P/A) mode, the RMC performed equivalently or superiorly to experienced human subjects on accuracy and repeatability measures, and nearly an order of magnitude better on measures of ablation consistency. The programmed RMC performed significantly better for repetition error when compared to human subjects with <100 previous laser cases (P = .04). Experienced laser surgeons perform better than novice surgeons on tasks of accuracy and repeatability using the MMM device but roughly equivalently using the novel RMC. Operated in the P/A mode, the RMC performs equivalently or superior to experienced laser surgeons using the industry standard MMM for all measured parameters, and delivers an ablation consistency nearly an order of magnitude better than human laser operators. NA. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Goldmann Tonometer Prism with an Optimized Error Correcting Applanation Surface.

PubMed

McCafferty, Sean; Lim, Garrett; Duncan, William; Enikov, Eniko; Schwiegerling, Jim

2016-09-01

We evaluate solutions for an applanating surface modification to the Goldmann tonometer prism, which substantially negates the errors due to patient variability in biomechanics. A modified Goldmann or correcting applanation tonometry surface (CATS) prism is presented which was optimized to minimize the intraocular pressure (IOP) error due to corneal thickness, stiffness, curvature, and tear film. Mathematical modeling with finite element analysis (FEA) and manometric IOP referenced cadaver eyes were used to optimize and validate the design. Mathematical modeling of the optimized CATS prism indicates an approximate 50% reduction in each of the corneal biomechanical and tear film errors. Manometric IOP referenced pressure in cadaveric eyes demonstrates substantial equivalence to GAT in nominal eyes with the CATS prism as predicted by modeling theory. A CATS modified Goldmann prism is theoretically able to significantly improve the accuracy of IOP measurement without changing Goldmann measurement technique or interpretation. Clinical validation is needed but the analysis indicates a reduction in CCT error alone to less than ±2 mm Hg using the CATS prism in 100% of a standard population compared to only 54% less than ±2 mm Hg error with the present Goldmann prism. This article presents an easily adopted novel approach and critical design parameters to improve the accuracy of a Goldmann applanating tonometer.

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hadaegh, F. Y.; Bekey, G. A.

1986-01-01

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Numerical Differentiation Methods for Computing Error Covariance Matrices in Item Response Theory Modeling: An Evaluation and a New Proposal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tian, Wei; Cai, Li; Thissen, David; Xin, Tao

2013-01-01

In item response theory (IRT) modeling, the item parameter error covariance matrix plays a critical role in statistical inference procedures. When item parameters are estimated using the EM algorithm, the parameter error covariance matrix is not an automatic by-product of item calibration. Cai proposed the use of Supplemented EM algorithm for…

A Modified MinMax k-Means Algorithm Based on PSO

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The MinMax k-means algorithm is widely used to tackle the effect of bad initialization by minimizing the maximum intraclustering errors. Two parameters, including the exponent parameter and memory parameter, are involved in the executive process. Since different parameters have different clustering errors, it is crucial to choose appropriate parameters. In the original algorithm, a practical framework is given. Such framework extends the MinMax k-means to automatically adapt the exponent parameter to the data set. It has been believed that if the maximum exponent parameter has been set, then the programme can reach the lowest intraclustering errors. However, our experiments show that this is not always correct. In this paper, we modified the MinMax k-means algorithm by PSO to determine the proper values of parameters which can subject the algorithm to attain the lowest clustering errors. The proposed clustering method is tested on some favorite data sets in several different initial situations and is compared to the k-means algorithm and the original MinMax k-means algorithm. The experimental results indicate that our proposed algorithm can reach the lowest clustering errors automatically. PMID:27656201

Automated Hypothesis Tests and Standard Errors for Nonstandard Problems with Description of Computer Package: A Draft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lord, Frederic M.; Stocking, Martha

A general Computer program is described that will compute asymptotic standard errors and carry out significance tests for an endless variety of (standard and) nonstandard large-sample statistical problems, without requiring the statistician to derive asymptotic standard error formulas. The program assumes that the observations have a multinormal…

Applications of Evolutionary Algorithms to Electromagnetic Materials Characterization and Design Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frasch, Jonathan Lemoine

Determining the electrical permittivity and magnetic permeability of materials is an important task in electromagnetics research. The method using reflection and transmission scattering parameters to determine these constants has been widely employed for many years, ever since the work of Nicolson, Ross, and Weir in the 1970's. For general materials that are homogeneous, linear, and isotropic, the method they developed (the NRW method) works very well and provides an analytical solution. For materials which possess a metal backing or are applied as a coating to a metal surface, it can be difficult or even impossible to obtain a transmission measurement, especially when the coating is thin. In such a circumstance, it is common to resort to a method which uses two reflection type measurements. There are several such methods for free-space measurements, using multiple angles or polarizations for example. For waveguide measurements, obtaining two independent sources of information from which to extract two complex parameters can be a challenge. This dissertation covers three different topics. Two of these involve different techniques to characterize conductor-backed materials, and the third proposes a method for designing synthetic validation standards for use with standard NRW measurements. All three of these topics utilize modal expansions of electric and magnetic fields to analyze propagation in stepped rectangular waveguides. Two of the projects utilize evolutionary algorithms (EA) to design waveguide structures. These algorithms were developed specifically for these projects and utilize fairly recent innovations within the optimization community. The first characterization technique uses two different versions of a single vertical step in the waveguide. Samples to be tested lie inside the steps with the conductor reflection plane behind them. If the two reflection measurements are truly independent it should be possible to recover the values of two complex parameters, but success of the technique ultimately depends upon how independent the measurements actually are. Next, a method is demonstrated for developing synthetic verification standards. These standards are created from combinations of vertical steps formed from a single piece of metal or metal coated plastic. These fully insertable structures mimic some of the measurement characteristics of typical lab specimens and thus provide a useful tool for verifying the proper calibration and function of the experimental setup used for NRW characterization. These standards are designed with the use an EA, which compares possible designs based on the quality of the match with target parameter values. Several examples have been fabricated and tested, and the design specifications and results are presented. Finally, a second characterization technique is considered. This method uses multiple vertical steps to construct an error reducing structure within the waveguide, which allows parameters to be reliably extracted using both reflection and transmission measurements. These structures are designed with an EA, measuring fitness by the reduction of error in the extracted parameters. An additional EA is used to assist in the extraction of the material parameters supplying better initial guesses to a secant method solver. This hybrid approach greatly increases the stability of the solver and increases the speed of parameter extractions. Several designs have been identified and are analyzed.

Frequency distribution histograms for the rapid analysis of data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burke, P. V.; Bullen, B. L.; Poff, K. L.

1988-01-01

The mean and standard error are good representations for the response of a population to an experimental parameter and are frequently used for this purpose. Frequency distribution histograms show, in addition, responses of individuals in the population. Both the statistics and a visual display of the distribution of the responses can be obtained easily using a microcomputer and available programs. The type of distribution shown by the histogram may suggest different mechanisms to be tested.

Evaluating true BCI communication rate through mutual information and language models.

PubMed

Speier, William; Arnold, Corey; Pouratian, Nader

2013-01-01

Brain-computer interface (BCI) systems are a promising means for restoring communication to patients suffering from "locked-in" syndrome. Research to improve system performance primarily focuses on means to overcome the low signal to noise ratio of electroencephalogric (EEG) recordings. However, the literature and methods are difficult to compare due to the array of evaluation metrics and assumptions underlying them, including that: 1) all characters are equally probable, 2) character selection is memoryless, and 3) errors occur completely at random. The standardization of evaluation metrics that more accurately reflect the amount of information contained in BCI language output is critical to make progress. We present a mutual information-based metric that incorporates prior information and a model of systematic errors. The parameters of a system used in one study were re-optimized, showing that the metric used in optimization significantly affects the parameter values chosen and the resulting system performance. The results of 11 BCI communication studies were then evaluated using different metrics, including those previously used in BCI literature and the newly advocated metric. Six studies' results varied based on the metric used for evaluation and the proposed metric produced results that differed from those originally published in two of the studies. Standardizing metrics to accurately reflect the rate of information transmission is critical to properly evaluate and compare BCI communication systems and advance the field in an unbiased manner.

Frame error rate for single-hop and dual-hop transmissions in 802.15.4 LoWPANs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Sankalita; Ghosh, Biswajit; Chandra, Aniruddha; Dhar Roy, Sanjay

2017-08-01

IEEE 802.15.4 is a popular standard for personal area networks used in different low-rate short-range applications. This paper examines the error rate performance of 802.15.4 in fading wireless channel. An analytical model is formulated for evaluating frame error rate (FER); first, for direct single-hop transmission between two sensor nodes, and second, for dual-hop (DH) transmission using an in-between relay node. During modeling the transceiver design parameters are chosen according to the specifications set for both the 2.45 GHz and 868/915 MHz bands. We have also developed a simulation test bed for evaluating FER. Some results showed expected trends, such as FER is higher for larger payloads. Other observations are not that intuitive. It is interesting to note that the error rates are significantly higher for the DH case and demands a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) penalty of about 7 dB. Also, the FER shoots from zero to one within a very small range of SNR.

[13C]Glucose Breath Testing Provides a Noninvasive Measure of Insulin Resistance: Calibration Analyses Against Clamp Studies

PubMed Central

Hussain, Maysa; Jangorbhani, Morteza; Schuette, Sally; Considine, Robert V.; Chisholm, Robin L.

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Exhaled 13CO2 following ingestion of [13C]glucose with a standard oral glucose tolerance load correlates with blood glucose values but is determined by tissue glucose uptake. Therefore exhaled 13CO2 may also be a surrogate measure of the whole-body glucose disposal rate (GDR) measured by the gold standard hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp. Subjects and Methods: Subjects from across the glycemia range were studied on 2 consecutive days under fasting conditions. On Day 1, a 75-g oral glucose load spiked with [13C]glucose was administered. On Day 2, a hyperinsulinemic euglycemic clamp was performed. Correlations between breath parameters and clamp-derived GDR were evaluated, and calibration analyses were performed to evaluate the precision of breath parameter predictions of clamp measures. Results: Correlations of breath parameters with GDR and GDR per kilogram of fat-free mass (GDRffm) ranged from 0.54 to 0.61 and 0.54 to 0.66, respectively (all P<0.001). In calibration analyses the root mean square error for breath parameters predicting GDR and GDRffm ranged from 2.32 to 2.46 and from 3.23 to 3.51, respectively. Cross-validation prediction error (CVPE) estimates were 2.35–2.51 (GDR) and 3.29–3.57 (GDRffm). Prediction precision of breath enrichment at 180 min predicting GDR (CVPE=2.35) was superior to that for inverse insulin (2.68) and the Matsuda Index (2.51) but inferior to that for the log of homeostasis model assessment (2.21) and Quantitative Insulin Sensitivity Check Index (2.29) (all P<10−5). Similar patterns were seen for predictions of GDRffm. Conclusions: 13CO2 appearance in exhaled breath following a standard oral glucose load with added [13C]glucose provides a valid surrogate index of clamp-derived measures of whole-body insulin resistance, with good accuracy and precision. This noninvasive breath test-based approach can provide a useful measure of whole-body insulin resistance in physiologic and epidemiologic studies. PMID:24116833

State estimation bias induced by optimization under uncertainty and error cost asymmetry is likely reflected in perception.

PubMed

Shimansky, Y P

2011-05-01

It is well known from numerous studies that perception can be significantly affected by intended action in many everyday situations, indicating that perception and related decision-making is not a simple, one-way sequence, but a complex iterative cognitive process. However, the underlying functional mechanisms are yet unclear. Based on an optimality approach, a quantitative computational model of one such mechanism has been developed in this study. It is assumed in the model that significant uncertainty about task-related parameters of the environment results in parameter estimation errors and an optimal control system should minimize the cost of such errors in terms of the optimality criterion. It is demonstrated that, if the cost of a parameter estimation error is significantly asymmetrical with respect to error direction, the tendency to minimize error cost creates a systematic deviation of the optimal parameter estimate from its maximum likelihood value. Consequently, optimization of parameter estimate and optimization of control action cannot be performed separately from each other under parameter uncertainty combined with asymmetry of estimation error cost, thus making the certainty equivalence principle non-applicable under those conditions. A hypothesis that not only the action, but also perception itself is biased by the above deviation of parameter estimate is supported by ample experimental evidence. The results provide important insights into the cognitive mechanisms of interaction between sensory perception and planning an action under realistic conditions. Implications for understanding related functional mechanisms of optimal control in the CNS are discussed.

Frequency-domain full-waveform inversion with non-linear descent directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geng, Yu; Pan, Wenyong; Innanen, Kristopher A.

2018-05-01

Full-waveform inversion (FWI) is a highly non-linear inverse problem, normally solved iteratively, with each iteration involving an update constructed through linear operations on the residuals. Incorporating a flexible degree of non-linearity within each update may have important consequences for convergence rates, determination of low model wavenumbers and discrimination of parameters. We examine one approach for doing so, wherein higher order scattering terms are included within the sensitivity kernel during the construction of the descent direction, adjusting it away from that of the standard Gauss-Newton approach. These scattering terms are naturally admitted when we construct the sensitivity kernel by varying not the current but the to-be-updated model at each iteration. Linear and/or non-linear inverse scattering methodologies allow these additional sensitivity contributions to be computed from the current data residuals within any given update. We show that in the presence of pre-critical reflection data, the error in a second-order non-linear update to a background of s0 is, in our scheme, proportional to at most (Δs/s0)3 in the actual parameter jump Δs causing the reflection. In contrast, the error in a standard Gauss-Newton FWI update is proportional to (Δs/s0)2. For numerical implementation of more complex cases, we introduce a non-linear frequency-domain scheme, with an inner and an outer loop. A perturbation is determined from the data residuals within the inner loop, and a descent direction based on the resulting non-linear sensitivity kernel is computed in the outer loop. We examine the response of this non-linear FWI using acoustic single-parameter synthetics derived from the Marmousi model. The inverted results vary depending on data frequency ranges and initial models, but we conclude that the non-linear FWI has the capability to generate high-resolution model estimates in both shallow and deep regions, and to converge rapidly, relative to a benchmark FWI approach involving the standard gradient.

Population viability analysis with species occurrence data from museum collections.

PubMed

Skarpaas, Olav; Stabbetorp, Odd E

2011-06-01

The most comprehensive data on many species come from scientific collections. Thus, we developed a method of population viability analysis (PVA) in which this type of occurrence data can be used. In contrast to classical PVA, our approach accounts for the inherent observation error in occurrence data and allows the estimation of the population parameters needed for viability analysis. We tested the sensitivity of the approach to spatial resolution of the data, length of the time series, sampling effort, and detection probability with simulated data and conducted PVAs for common, rare, and threatened species. We compared the results of these PVAs with results of standard method PVAs in which observation error is ignored. Our method provided realistic estimates of population growth terms and quasi-extinction risk in cases in which the standard method without observation error could not. For low values of any of the sampling variables we tested, precision decreased, and in some cases biased estimates resulted. The results of our PVAs with the example species were consistent with information in the literature on these species. Our approach may facilitate PVA for a wide range of species of conservation concern for which demographic data are lacking but occurrence data are readily available. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Prediction of stream volatilization coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rathbun, Ronald E.

1990-01-01

Equations are developed for predicting the liquid-film and gas-film reference-substance parameters for quantifying volatilization of organic solutes from streams. Molecular weight and molecular-diffusion coefficients of the solute are used as correlating parameters. Equations for predicting molecular-diffusion coefficients of organic solutes in water and air are developed, with molecular weight and molal volume as parameters. Mean absolute errors of prediction for diffusion coefficients in water are 9.97% for the molecular-weight equation, 6.45% for the molal-volume equation. The mean absolute error for the diffusion coefficient in air is 5.79% for the molal-volume equation. Molecular weight is not a satisfactory correlating parameter for diffusion in air because two equations are necessary to describe the values in the data set. The best predictive equation for the liquid-film reference-substance parameter has a mean absolute error of 5.74%, with molal volume as the correlating parameter. The best equation for the gas-film parameter has a mean absolute error of 7.80%, with molecular weight as the correlating parameter.

Optimal design of monitoring networks for multiple groundwater quality parameters using a Kalman filter: application to the Irapuato-Valle aquifer.

PubMed

Júnez-Ferreira, H E; Herrera, G S; González-Hita, L; Cardona, A; Mora-Rodríguez, J

2016-01-01

A new method for the optimal design of groundwater quality monitoring networks is introduced in this paper. Various indicator parameters were considered simultaneously and tested for the Irapuato-Valle aquifer in Mexico. The steps followed in the design were (1) establishment of the monitoring network objectives, (2) definition of a groundwater quality conceptual model for the study area, (3) selection of the parameters to be sampled, and (4) selection of a monitoring network by choosing the well positions that minimize the estimate error variance of the selected indicator parameters. Equal weight for each parameter was given to most of the aquifer positions and a higher weight to priority zones. The objective for the monitoring network in the specific application was to obtain a general reconnaissance of the water quality, including water types, water origin, and first indications of contamination. Water quality indicator parameters were chosen in accordance with this objective, and for the selection of the optimal monitoring sites, it was sought to obtain a low-uncertainty estimate of these parameters for the entire aquifer and with more certainty in priority zones. The optimal monitoring network was selected using a combination of geostatistical methods, a Kalman filter and a heuristic optimization method. Results show that when monitoring the 69 locations with higher priority order (the optimal monitoring network), the joint average standard error in the study area for all the groundwater quality parameters was approximately 90 % of the obtained with the 140 available sampling locations (the set of pilot wells). This demonstrates that an optimal design can help to reduce monitoring costs, by avoiding redundancy in data acquisition.

Structural Reliability Using Probability Density Estimation Methods Within NESSUS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Chrisos C. (Technical Monitor); Godines, Cody Ric

2003-01-01

A reliability analysis studies a mathematical model of a physical system taking into account uncertainties of design variables and common results are estimations of a response density, which also implies estimations of its parameters. Some common density parameters include the mean value, the standard deviation, and specific percentile(s) of the response, which are measures of central tendency, variation, and probability regions, respectively. Reliability analyses are important since the results can lead to different designs by calculating the probability of observing safe responses in each of the proposed designs. All of this is done at the expense of added computational time as compared to a single deterministic analysis which will result in one value of the response out of many that make up the density of the response. Sampling methods, such as monte carlo (MC) and latin hypercube sampling (LHS), can be used to perform reliability analyses and can compute nonlinear response density parameters even if the response is dependent on many random variables. Hence, both methods are very robust; however, they are computationally expensive to use in the estimation of the response density parameters. Both methods are 2 of 13 stochastic methods that are contained within the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) program. NESSUS is a probabilistic finite element analysis (FEA) program that was developed through funding from NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). It has the additional capability of being linked to other analysis programs; therefore, probabilistic fluid dynamics, fracture mechanics, and heat transfer are only a few of what is possible with this software. The LHS method is the newest addition to the stochastic methods within NESSUS. Part of this work was to enhance NESSUS with the LHS method. The new LHS module is complete, has been successfully integrated with NESSUS, and been used to study four different test cases that have been proposed by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE). The test cases compare different probabilistic methods within NESSUS because it is important that a user can have confidence that estimates of stochastic parameters of a response will be within an acceptable error limit. For each response, the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile, are repeatedly estimated which allows confidence statements to be made for each parameter estimated, and for each method. Thus, the ability of several stochastic methods to efficiently and accurately estimate density parameters is compared using four valid test cases. While all of the reliability methods used performed quite well, for the new LHS module within NESSUS it was found that it had a lower estimation error than MC when they were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, and 0.99 percentile of the four different stochastic responses. Also, LHS required a smaller amount of calculations to obtain low error answers with a high amount of confidence than MC. It can therefore be stated that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ and the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

The Infinitesimal Jackknife with Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Jennrich, Robert I.

2012-01-01

The infinitesimal jackknife, a nonparametric method for estimating standard errors, has been used to obtain standard error estimates in covariance structure analysis. In this article, we adapt it for obtaining standard errors for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in exploratory factor analysis with sample correlation matrices. Both…

A Comparison of Three Methods for Computing Scale Score Conditional Standard Errors of Measurement. ACT Research Report Series, 2013 (7)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woodruff, David; Traynor, Anne; Cui, Zhongmin; Fang, Yu

2013-01-01

Professional standards for educational testing recommend that both the overall standard error of measurement and the conditional standard error of measurement (CSEM) be computed on the score scale used to report scores to examinees. Several methods have been developed to compute scale score CSEMs. This paper compares three methods, based on…

Facial motion parameter estimation and error criteria in model-based image coding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yunhai; Yu, Lu; Yao, Qingdong

2000-04-01

Model-based image coding has been given extensive attention due to its high subject image quality and low bit-rates. But the estimation of object motion parameter is still a difficult problem, and there is not a proper error criteria for the quality assessment that are consistent with visual properties. This paper presents an algorithm of the facial motion parameter estimation based on feature point correspondence and gives the motion parameter error criteria. The facial motion model comprises of three parts. The first part is the global 3-D rigid motion of the head, the second part is non-rigid translation motion in jaw area, and the third part consists of local non-rigid expression motion in eyes and mouth areas. The feature points are automatically selected by a function of edges, brightness and end-node outside the blocks of eyes and mouth. The numbers of feature point are adjusted adaptively. The jaw translation motion is tracked by the changes of the feature point position of jaw. The areas of non-rigid expression motion can be rebuilt by using block-pasting method. The estimation approach of motion parameter error based on the quality of reconstructed image is suggested, and area error function and the error function of contour transition-turn rate are used to be quality criteria. The criteria reflect the image geometric distortion caused by the error of estimated motion parameters properly.

Determination of surface layer parameters at the edge of a suburban area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Likso, T.; Pandžić, K.

2012-05-01

Vertical wind and air temperature profile related parameters in the surface layer at the edge of suburban area of Zagreb (Croatia) have been considered. For that purpose, adopted Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and a set of observations of wind and air temperature at 2 and 10 m above ground, recorded in 2005, have been used. The root mean square differences (errors) principle has been used as a tool to estimate the effective roughness length as well as standard deviations of wind speed and wind gusts. The results of estimation are effective roughness lengths dependent on eight wind direction sectors unknown before. Gratefully to that achievement, representativeness of wind data at standard 10-m height can be clarified more deeply for an area of at least about 1 km in upwind direction from the observation site. Extrapolation of wind data for lower or higher levels from standard 10-m height are thus properly representative for a wider inhomogeneous suburban area and can be used as such in numerical models, flux and wind energy estimation, civil engineering, air pollution and climatological applications.

Systematic error of the Gaia DR1 TGAS parallaxes from data for the red giant clump

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontcharov, G. A.

2017-08-01

Based on the Gaia DR1 TGAS parallaxes and photometry from the Tycho-2, Gaia, 2MASS, andWISE catalogues, we have produced a sample of 100 000 clump red giants within 800 pc of the Sun. The systematic variations of the mode of their absolute magnitude as a function of the distance, magnitude, and other parameters have been analyzed. We show that these variations reach 0.7 mag and cannot be explained by variations in the interstellar extinction or intrinsic properties of stars and by selection. The only explanation seems to be a systematic error of the Gaia DR1 TGAS parallax dependent on the square of the observed distance in kpc: 0.18 R 2 mas. Allowance for this error reduces significantly the systematic dependences of the absolute magnitude mode on all parameters. This error reaches 0.1 mas within 800 pc of the Sun and allows an upper limit for the accuracy of the TGAS parallaxes to be estimated as 0.2 mas. A careful allowance for such errors is needed to use clump red giants as "standard candles." This eliminates all discrepancies between the theoretical and empirical estimates of the characteristics of these stars and allows us to obtain the first estimates of the modes of their absolute magnitudes from the Gaia parallaxes: mode( M H ) = -1.49 m ± 0.04 m , mode( M Ks ) = -1.63 m ± 0.03 m , mode( M W1) = -1.67 m ± 0.05 m mode( M W2) = -1.67 m ± 0.05 m , mode( M W3) = -1.66 m ± 0.02 m , mode( M W4) = -1.73 m ± 0.03 m , as well as the corresponding estimates of their de-reddened colors.

Comparison of two laryngeal tissue fiber constitutive models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, Eric J.; Palaparthi, Anil Kumar Reddy; Siegmund, Thomas; Chan, Roger W.

2014-02-01

Biological tissues are complex time-dependent materials, and the best choice of the appropriate time-dependent constitutive description is not evident. This report reviews two constitutive models (a modified Kelvin model and a two-network Ogden-Boyce model) in the characterization of the passive stress-strain properties of laryngeal tissue under tensile deformation. The two models are compared, as are the automated methods for parameterization of tissue stress-strain data (a brute force vs. a common optimization method). Sensitivity (error curves) of parameters from both models and the optimized parameter set are calculated and contrast by optimizing to the same tissue stress-strain data. Both models adequately characterized empirical stress-strain datasets and could be used to recreate a good likeness of the data. Nevertheless, parameters in both models were sensitive to measurement errors or uncertainties in stress-strain, which would greatly hinder the confidence in those parameters. The modified Kelvin model emerges as a potential better choice for phonation models which use a tissue model as one component, or for general comparisons of the mechanical properties of one type of tissue to another (e.g., axial stress nonlinearity). In contrast, the Ogden-Boyce model would be more appropriate to provide a basic understanding of the tissue's mechanical response with better insights into the tissue's physical characteristics in terms of standard engineering metrics such as shear modulus and viscosity.

Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, D.J.; Salehi, Habib

1992-01-01

Statistical models for estimating daily streamflow were analyzed for 25 pairs of streamflow-gaging stations in Michigan. Stations were paired by randomly choosing a station operated in 1989 at which 10 or more years of continuous flow data had been collected and at which flow is virtually unregulated; a nearby station was chosen where flow characteristics are similar. Streamflow data from the 25 randomly selected stations were used as the response variables; streamflow data at the nearby stations were used to generate a set of explanatory variables. Ordinary-least squares regression (OLSR) equations, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) equations, and transfer function-noise (TFN) equations were developed to estimate the log transform of flow for the 25 randomly selected stations. The precision of each type of equation was evaluated on the basis of the standard deviation of the estimation errors. OLSR equations produce one set of estimation errors; ARIMA and TFN models each produce l sets of estimation errors corresponding to the forecast lead. The lead-l forecast is the estimate of flow l days ahead of the most recent streamflow used as a response variable in the estimation. In this analysis, the standard deviation of lead l ARIMA and TFN forecast errors were generally lower than the standard deviation of OLSR errors for l < 2 days and l < 9 days, respectively. Composite estimates were computed as a weighted average of forecasts based on TFN equations and backcasts (forecasts of the reverse-ordered series) based on ARIMA equations. The standard deviation of composite errors varied throughout the length of the estimation interval and generally was at maximum near the center of the interval. For comparison with OLSR errors, the mean standard deviation of composite errors were computed for intervals of length 1 to 40 days. The mean standard deviation of length-l composite errors were generally less than the standard deviation of the OLSR errors for l < 32 days. In addition, the composite estimates ensure a gradual transition between periods of estimated and measured flows. Model performance among stations of differing model error magnitudes were compared by computing ratios of the mean standard deviation of the length l composite errors to the standard deviation of OLSR errors. The mean error ratio for the set of 25 selected stations was less than 1 for intervals l < 32 days. Considering the frequency characteristics of the length of intervals of estimated record in Michigan, the effective mean error ratio for intervals < 30 days was 0.52. Thus, for intervals of estimation of 1 month or less, the error of the composite estimate is substantially lower than error of the OLSR estimate.

Nonparametric Estimation of Standard Errors in Covariance Analysis Using the Infinitesimal Jackknife

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jennrich, Robert I.

2008-01-01

The infinitesimal jackknife provides a simple general method for estimating standard errors in covariance structure analysis. Beyond its simplicity and generality what makes the infinitesimal jackknife method attractive is that essentially no assumptions are required to produce consistent standard error estimates, not even the requirement that the…

Factor Rotation and Standard Errors in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.

2015-01-01

In this article, we report a surprising phenomenon: Oblique CF-varimax and oblique CF-quartimax rotation produced similar point estimates for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations but different standard error estimates in an empirical example. Influences of factor rotation on asymptotic standard errors are investigated using a numerical…

H∞ output tracking control of discrete-time nonlinear systems via standard neural network models.

PubMed

Liu, Meiqin; Zhang, Senlin; Chen, Haiyang; Sheng, Weihua

2014-10-01

This brief proposes an output tracking control for a class of discrete-time nonlinear systems with disturbances. A standard neural network model is used to represent discrete-time nonlinear systems whose nonlinearity satisfies the sector conditions. H∞ control performance for the closed-loop system including the standard neural network model, the reference model, and state feedback controller is analyzed using Lyapunov-Krasovskii stability theorem and linear matrix inequality (LMI) approach. The H∞ controller, of which the parameters are obtained by solving LMIs, guarantees that the output of the closed-loop system closely tracks the output of a given reference model well, and reduces the influence of disturbances on the tracking error. Three numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed H∞ output tracking design approach.

Modeling Multiplicative Error Variance: An Example Predicting Tree Diameter from Stump Dimensions in Baldcypress

Treesearch

Bernard R. Parresol

1993-01-01

In the context of forest modeling, it is often reasonable to assume a multiplicative heteroscedastic error structure to the data. Under such circumstances ordinary least squares no longer provides minimum variance estimates of the model parameters. Through study of the error structure, a suitable error variance model can be specified and its parameters estimated. This...

Uncertainty quantification and propagation in dynamic models using ambient vibration measurements, application to a 10-story building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behmanesh, Iman; Yousefianmoghadam, Seyedsina; Nozari, Amin; Moaveni, Babak; Stavridis, Andreas

2018-07-01

This paper investigates the application of Hierarchical Bayesian model updating for uncertainty quantification and response prediction of civil structures. In this updating framework, structural parameters of an initial finite element (FE) model (e.g., stiffness or mass) are calibrated by minimizing error functions between the identified modal parameters and the corresponding parameters of the model. These error functions are assumed to have Gaussian probability distributions with unknown parameters to be determined. The estimated parameters of error functions represent the uncertainty of the calibrated model in predicting building's response (modal parameters here). The focus of this paper is to answer whether the quantified model uncertainties using dynamic measurement at building's reference/calibration state can be used to improve the model prediction accuracies at a different structural state, e.g., damaged structure. Also, the effects of prediction error bias on the uncertainty of the predicted values is studied. The test structure considered here is a ten-story concrete building located in Utica, NY. The modal parameters of the building at its reference state are identified from ambient vibration data and used to calibrate parameters of the initial FE model as well as the error functions. Before demolishing the building, six of its exterior walls were removed and ambient vibration measurements were also collected from the structure after the wall removal. These data are not used to calibrate the model; they are only used to assess the predicted results. The model updating framework proposed in this paper is applied to estimate the modal parameters of the building at its reference state as well as two damaged states: moderate damage (removal of four walls) and severe damage (removal of six walls). Good agreement is observed between the model-predicted modal parameters and those identified from vibration tests. Moreover, it is shown that including prediction error bias in the updating process instead of commonly-used zero-mean error function can significantly reduce the prediction uncertainties.

Scout trajectory error propagation computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myler, T. R.

1982-01-01

Since 1969, flight experience has been used as the basis for predicting Scout orbital accuracy. The data used for calculating the accuracy consists of errors in the trajectory parameters (altitude, velocity, etc.) at stage burnout as observed on Scout flights. Approximately 50 sets of errors are used in Monte Carlo analysis to generate error statistics in the trajectory parameters. A covariance matrix is formed which may be propagated in time. The mechanization of this process resulted in computer program Scout Trajectory Error Propagation (STEP) and is described herein. Computer program STEP may be used in conjunction with the Statistical Orbital Analysis Routine to generate accuracy in the orbit parameters (apogee, perigee, inclination, etc.) based upon flight experience.

A zero-augmented generalized gamma regression calibration to adjust for covariate measurement error: A case of an episodically consumed dietary intake

PubMed Central

Agogo, George O.

2017-01-01

Measurement error in exposure variables is a serious impediment in epidemiological studies that relate exposures to health outcomes. In nutritional studies, interest could be in the association between long-term dietary intake and disease occurrence. Long-term intake is usually assessed with food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), which is prone to recall bias. Measurement error in FFQ-reported intakes leads to bias in parameter estimate that quantifies the association. To adjust for bias in the association, a calibration study is required to obtain unbiased intake measurements using a short-term instrument such as 24-hour recall (24HR). The 24HR intakes are used as response in regression calibration to adjust for bias in the association. For foods not consumed daily, 24HR-reported intakes are usually characterized by excess zeroes, right skewness, and heteroscedasticity posing serious challenge in regression calibration modeling. We proposed a zero-augmented calibration model to adjust for measurement error in reported intake, while handling excess zeroes, skewness, and heteroscedasticity simultaneously without transforming 24HR intake values. We compared the proposed calibration method with the standard method and with methods that ignore measurement error by estimating long-term intake with 24HR and FFQ-reported intakes. The comparison was done in real and simulated datasets. With the 24HR, the mean increase in mercury level per ounce fish intake was about 0.4; with the FFQ intake, the increase was about 1.2. With both calibration methods, the mean increase was about 2.0. Similar trend was observed in the simulation study. In conclusion, the proposed calibration method performs at least as good as the standard method. PMID:27704599

Comparing Consider-Covariance Analysis with Sigma-Point Consider Filter and Linear-Theory Consider Filter Formulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lisano, Michael E.

2007-01-01

Recent literature in applied estimation theory reflects growing interest in the sigma-point (also called unscented ) formulation for optimal sequential state estimation, often describing performance comparisons with extended Kalman filters as applied to specific dynamical problems [c.f. 1, 2, 3]. Favorable attributes of sigma-point filters are described as including a lower expected error for nonlinear even non-differentiable dynamical systems, and a straightforward formulation not requiring derivation or implementation of any partial derivative Jacobian matrices. These attributes are particularly attractive, e.g. in terms of enabling simplified code architecture and streamlined testing, in the formulation of estimators for nonlinear spaceflight mechanics systems, such as filter software onboard deep-space robotic spacecraft. As presented in [4], the Sigma-Point Consider Filter (SPCF) algorithm extends the sigma-point filter algorithm to the problem of consider covariance analysis. Considering parameters in a dynamical system, while estimating its state, provides an upper bound on the estimated state covariance, which is viewed as a conservative approach to designing estimators for problems of general guidance, navigation and control. This is because, whether a parameter in the system model is observable or not, error in the knowledge of the value of a non-estimated parameter will increase the actual uncertainty of the estimated state of the system beyond the level formally indicated by the covariance of an estimator that neglects errors or uncertainty in that parameter. The equations for SPCF covariance evolution are obtained in a fashion similar to the derivation approach taken with standard (i.e. linearized or extended) consider parameterized Kalman filters (c.f. [5]). While in [4] the SPCF and linear-theory consider filter (LTCF) were applied to an illustrative linear dynamics/linear measurement problem, in the present work examines the SPCF as applied to nonlinear sequential consider covariance analysis, i.e. in the presence of nonlinear dynamics and nonlinear measurements. A simple SPCF for orbit determination, exemplifying an algorithm hosted in the guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) computer processor of a hypothetical robotic spacecraft, was implemented, and compared with an identically-parameterized (standard) extended, consider-parameterized Kalman filter. The onboard filtering scenario examined is a hypothetical spacecraft orbit about a small natural body with imperfectly-known mass. The formulations, relative complexities, and performances of the filters are compared and discussed.

Advances in Experiment Design for High Performance Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Engene A.

1998-01-01

A general overview and summary of recent advances in experiment design for high performance aircraft is presented, along with results from flight tests. General theoretical background is included, with some discussion of various approaches to maneuver design. Flight test examples from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV) are used to illustrate applications of the theory. Input forms are compared using Cramer-Rao bounds for the standard errors of estimated model parameters. Directions for future research in experiment design for high performance aircraft are identified.

Viking relativity experiment - Verification of signal retardation by solar gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reasenberg, R. D.; Shapiro, I. I.; Macneil, P. E.; Goldstein, R. B.; Breidenthal, J. C.; Brenkle, J. P.; Cain, D. L.; Kaufman, T. M.; Komarek, T. A.; Zygielbaum, A. I.

1979-01-01

Analysis of 14 months of data obtained from radio ranging to the Viking spacecraft verified, to an estimated accuracy of 0.1%, the prediction of the general theory of relativity that the round-trip times of light signals traveling between the earth and Mars are increased by the direct effect of solar gravity. The corresponding value for the metric parameter gamma is 1.000 plus or minus 0.002, where the quoted uncertainty, twice the formal standard deviation, allows for possible systematic errors.

Research on Standard Errors of Equating Differences. Research Report. ETS RR-10-25

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim; Zhang, Wenmin

2010-01-01

In this paper, the "standard error of equating difference" (SEED) is described in terms of originally proposed kernel equating functions (von Davier, Holland, & Thayer, 2004) and extended to incorporate traditional linear and equipercentile functions. These derivations expand on prior developments of SEEDs and standard errors of equating and…

Improving Forecasts Through Realistic Uncertainty Estimates: A Novel Data Driven Method for Model Uncertainty Quantification in Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, S. D.; Moradkhani, H.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Geenens, G.

2016-12-01

Effective combination of model simulations and observations through Data Assimilation (DA) depends heavily on uncertainty characterisation. Many traditional methods for quantifying model uncertainty in DA require some level of subjectivity (by way of tuning parameters or by assuming Gaussian statistics). Furthermore, the focus is typically on only estimating the first and second moments. We propose a data-driven methodology to estimate the full distributional form of model uncertainty, i.e. the transition density p(xt|xt-1). All sources of uncertainty associated with the model simulations are considered collectively, without needing to devise stochastic perturbations for individual components (such as model input, parameter and structural uncertainty). A training period is used to derive the distribution of errors in observed variables conditioned on hidden states. Errors in hidden states are estimated from the conditional distribution of observed variables using non-linear optimization. The theory behind the framework and case study applications are discussed in detail. Results demonstrate improved predictions and more realistic uncertainty bounds compared to a standard perturbation approach.

Modeling the influence of LASIK surgery on optical properties of the human eye

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szul-Pietrzak, Elżbieta; Hachoł, Andrzej; Cieślak, Krzysztof; Drożdż, Ryszard; Podbielska, Halina

2011-11-01

The aim was to model the influence of LASIK surgery on the optical parameters of the human eye and to ascertain which factors besides the central corneal radius of curvature and central thickness play the major role in postsurgical refractive change. Ten patients were included in the study. Pre- and postsurgical measurements included standard refraction, anterior corneal curvature and pachymetry. The optical model used in the analysis was based on the Le Grand and El Hage schematic eye, modified by the measured individual parameters of corneal geometry. A substantial difference between eye refractive error measured after LASIK and estimated from the eye model was observed. In three patients, full correction of the refractive error was achieved. However, analysis of the visual quality in terms of spot diagrams and optical transfer functions of the eye optical system revealed some differences in these measurements. This suggests that other factors besides corneal geometry may play a major role in postsurgical refraction. In this paper we investigated whether the biomechanical properties of the eyeball and changes in intraocular pressure could account for the observed discrepancies.

[Qualitative analysis of the evaluation indicators and their related parameters of ametropic state].

PubMed

Ren, Zeqin

2016-01-01

To investigate the theoretical basis and practical limitations of the existing calculation formulas in the evaluation of ametropic state. The evaluation indicators and their calculation parameters of ametropia were analyzed by using the reduced schematic model eye, the paraxial imaging principle, and the dimension laws. The existing formulas resulted from the reduced object vergence of object distance and image distance relation. Regarding the two measurement indicators of the existing formulas, diopter was misused for refractive power. "Ametropia degree" was a non-standard diction. Both of them were not suitable as the evaluation indicators. The outcomes of the existing formulas and their related plus or minus sign rules showed refractive corrections instead of refractive errors proper. For refractive errors, there was no suitable evaluation indicator. In the evaluation of ametropic state, there are fundamental problems in the existing formulas resulting from the reduced object vergence. The measurement indicators and their dimensional units are confused and misused. The calculation results refer to the refractive corrections only. The evaluation indicators for ametropia need to be further discussed.

Using direct numerical simulation to improve experimental measurements of inertial particle radial relative velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Peter J.; Collins, Lance R.

2012-11-01

Turbulence-induced collision of inertial particles may contribute to the rapid onset of precipitation in warm cumulus clouds. The particle collision frequency is determined from two parameters: the radial distribution function g (r) and the mean inward radial relative velocity . These quantities have been measured in three dimensions computationally, using direct numerical simulation (DNS), and experimentally, using digital holographic particle image velocimetry (DHPIV). While good quantitative agreement has been attained between computational and experimental measures of g (r) (Salazar et al. 2008), measures of wr have not reached that stage (de Jong et al. 2010). We apply DNS to mimic the experimental image analysis used in the relative velocity measurement. To account for experimental errors, we add noise to the particle positions and `measure' the velocity from these positions. Our DNS shows that the experimental errors are inherent to the DHPIV setup, and so we explore an alternate approach, in which velocities are measured along thin two-dimensional planes using standard PIV. We show that this technique better recovers the correct radial relative velocity PDFs and suggest optimal parameter ranges for the experimental measurements.

Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massof, Robert W.; Schmidt, Karen M.; Laby, Daniel M.; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

2013-09-01

Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model.

Calibration of Passive Microwave Polarimeters that Use Hybrid Coupler-Based Correlators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Piepmeier, J. R.

2003-01-01

Four calibration algorithms are studied for microwave polarimeters that use hybrid coupler-based correlators: 1) conventional two-look of hot and cold sources, 2) three looks of hot and cold source combinations, 3) two-look with correlated source, and 4) four-look combining methods 2 and 3. The systematic errors are found to depend on the polarimeter component parameters and accuracy of calibration noise temperatures. A case study radiometer in four different remote sensing scenarios was considered in light of these results. Applications for Ocean surface salinity, Ocean surface winds, and soil moisture were found to be sensitive to different systematic errors. Finally, a standard uncertainty analysis was performed on the four-look calibration algorithm, which was found to be most sensitive to the correlated calibration source.

Test of the cosmic transparency with the standard candles and the standard ruler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jun

In this paper, the cosmic transparency is constrained by using the latest baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) data and the type Ia supernova data with a model-independent method. We find that a transparent universe is consistent with observational data at the 1σ confidence level, except for the case of BAO+ Union 2.1 without the systematic errors where a transparent universe is favored only at the 2σ confidence level. To investigate the effect of the uncertainty of the Hubble constant on the test of the cosmic opacity, we assume h to be a free parameter and obtain that the observations favor a transparent universe at the 1σ confidence level.

Objective Measures of Visual Function in Papilledema

PubMed Central

Moss, Heather E.

2016-01-01

Synopsis Visual function is an important parameter to consider when managing patients with papilledema. Though the current standard of care uses standard automated perimetry (SAP) to obtain this information, this test is inherently subjective and prone to patient errors. Objective visual function tests including the visual evoked potential, pattern electroretinogram, photopic negative response of the full field electroretinogram, and pupillary light response have the potential to replace or supplement subjective visual function tests in papilledema management. This article reviews the evidence for use of objective visual function tests to assess visual function in papilledema and discusses future investigations needed to develop them as clinically practical and useful measures for this purpose. PMID:28451649

Robust Methods for Moderation Analysis with a Two-Level Regression Model.

PubMed

Yang, Miao; Yuan, Ke-Hai

2016-01-01

Moderation analysis has many applications in social sciences. Most widely used estimation methods for moderation analysis assume that errors are normally distributed and homoscedastic. When these assumptions are not met, the results from a classical moderation analysis can be misleading. For more reliable moderation analysis, this article proposes two robust methods with a two-level regression model when the predictors do not contain measurement error. One method is based on maximum likelihood with Student's t distribution and the other is based on M-estimators with Huber-type weights. An algorithm for obtaining the robust estimators is developed. Consistent estimates of standard errors of the robust estimators are provided. The robust approaches are compared against normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) with respect to power and accuracy of parameter estimates through a simulation study. Results show that the robust approaches outperform NML under various distributional conditions. Application of the robust methods is illustrated through a real data example. An R program is developed and documented to facilitate the application of the robust methods.

Accuracy of maximum likelihood estimates of a two-state model in single-molecule FRET

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gopich, Irina V.

2015-01-21

Photon sequences from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments can be analyzed using a maximum likelihood method. Parameters of the underlying kinetic model (FRET efficiencies of the states and transition rates between conformational states) are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. In addition, the errors (uncertainties) of the extracted parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the likelihood function at the maximum. We study the standard deviations of the parameters of a two-state model obtained from photon sequences with recorded colors and arrival times. The standard deviations can be obtained analytically in a special case when themore » FRET efficiencies of the states are 0 and 1 and in the limiting cases of fast and slow conformational dynamics. These results are compared with the results of numerical simulations. The accuracy and, therefore, the ability to predict model parameters depend on how fast the transition rates are compared to the photon count rate. In the limit of slow transitions, the key parameters that determine the accuracy are the number of transitions between the states and the number of independent photon sequences. In the fast transition limit, the accuracy is determined by the small fraction of photons that are correlated with their neighbors. The relative standard deviation of the relaxation rate has a “chevron” shape as a function of the transition rate in the log-log scale. The location of the minimum of this function dramatically depends on how well the FRET efficiencies of the states are separated.« less

Accuracy of maximum likelihood estimates of a two-state model in single-molecule FRET

PubMed Central

Gopich, Irina V.

2015-01-01

Photon sequences from single-molecule Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments can be analyzed using a maximum likelihood method. Parameters of the underlying kinetic model (FRET efficiencies of the states and transition rates between conformational states) are obtained by maximizing the appropriate likelihood function. In addition, the errors (uncertainties) of the extracted parameters can be obtained from the curvature of the likelihood function at the maximum. We study the standard deviations of the parameters of a two-state model obtained from photon sequences with recorded colors and arrival times. The standard deviations can be obtained analytically in a special case when the FRET efficiencies of the states are 0 and 1 and in the limiting cases of fast and slow conformational dynamics. These results are compared with the results of numerical simulations. The accuracy and, therefore, the ability to predict model parameters depend on how fast the transition rates are compared to the photon count rate. In the limit of slow transitions, the key parameters that determine the accuracy are the number of transitions between the states and the number of independent photon sequences. In the fast transition limit, the accuracy is determined by the small fraction of photons that are correlated with their neighbors. The relative standard deviation of the relaxation rate has a “chevron” shape as a function of the transition rate in the log-log scale. The location of the minimum of this function dramatically depends on how well the FRET efficiencies of the states are separated. PMID:25612692

Ring rolling process simulation for geometry optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franchi, Rodolfo; Del Prete, Antonio; Donatiello, Iolanda; Calabrese, Maurizio

2017-10-01

Ring Rolling is a complex hot forming process where different rolls are involved in the production of seamless rings. Since each roll must be independently controlled, different speed laws must be set; usually, in the industrial environment, a milling curve is introduced to monitor the shape of the workpiece during the deformation in order to ensure the correct ring production. In the present paper a ring rolling process has been studied and optimized in order to obtain anular components to be used in aerospace applications. In particular, the influence of process input parameters (feed rate of the mandrel and angular speed of main roll) on geometrical features of the final ring has been evaluated. For this purpose, a three-dimensional finite element model for HRR (Hot Ring Rolling) has been implemented in SFTC DEFORM V11. The FEM model has been used to formulate a proper optimization problem. The optimization procedure has been implemented in the commercial software DS ISight in order to find the combination of process parameters which allows to minimize the percentage error of each obtained dimension with respect to its nominal value. The software allows to find the relationship between input and output parameters applying Response Surface Methodology (RSM), by using the exact values of output parameters in the control points of the design space explored through FEM simulation. Once this relationship is known, the values of the output parameters can be calculated for each combination of the input parameters. After the calculation of the response surfaces for the selected output parameters, an optimization procedure based on Genetic Algorithms has been applied. At the end, the error between each obtained dimension and its nominal value has been minimized. The constraints imposed were the maximum values of standard deviations of the dimensions obtained for the final ring.

The Calibration of Gloss Reference Standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, W.

1980-04-01

In present international and national standards for the measurement of specular gloss the primary and secondary reference standards are defined for monochromatic radiation. However the glossmeter specified is using polychromatic radiation (CIE Standard Illuminant C) and the CIE Standard Photometric Observer. This produces errors in practical gloss measurements of up to 0.5%. Although this may be considered small as compared to the accuracy of most practical gloss measurements, such an error should not be tolerated in the calibration of secondary standards. Corrections for such errors are presented and various alternatives for amendments of the existing documentary standards are discussed.

Monitoring of deep brain temperature in infants using multi-frequency microwave radiometry and thermal modelling.

PubMed

Han, J W; Van Leeuwen, G M; Mizushina, S; Van de Kamer, J B; Maruyama, K; Sugiura, T; Azzopardi, D V; Edwards, A D

2001-07-01

In this study we present a design for a multi-frequency microwave radiometer aimed at prolonged monitoring of deep brain temperature in newborn infants and suitable for use during hypothermic neural rescue therapy. We identify appropriate hardware to measure brightness temperature and evaluate the accuracy of the measurements. We describe a method to estimate the tissue temperature distribution from measured brightness temperatures which uses the results of numerical simulations of the tissue temperature as well as the propagation of the microwaves in a realistic detailed three-dimensional infant head model. The temperature retrieval method is then used to evaluate how the statistical fluctuations in the measured brightness temperatures limit the confidence interval for the estimated temperature: for an 18 degrees C temperature differential between cooled surface and deep brain we found a standard error in the estimated central brain temperature of 0.75 degrees C. Evaluation of the systematic errors arising from inaccuracies in model parameters showed that realistic deviations in tissue parameters have little impact compared to uncertainty in the thickness of the bolus between the receiving antenna and the infant's head or in the skull thickness. This highlights the need to pay particular attention to these latter parameters in future practical implementation of the technique.

Simplified Approach Charts Improve Data Retrieval Performance

PubMed Central

Stewart, Michael; Laraway, Sean; Jordan, Kevin; Feary, Michael S.

2016-01-01

The effectiveness of different instrument approach charts to deliver minimum visibility and altitude information during airport equipment outages was investigated. Eighteen pilots flew simulated instrument approaches in three conditions: (a) normal operations using a standard approach chart (standard-normal), (b) equipment outage conditions using a standard approach chart (standard-outage), and (c) equipment outage conditions using a prototype decluttered approach chart (prototype-outage). Errors and retrieval times in identifying minimum altitudes and visibilities were measured. The standard-outage condition produced significantly more errors and longer retrieval times versus the standard-normal condition. The prototype-outage condition had significantly fewer errors and shorter retrieval times than did the standard-outage condition. The prototype-outage condition produced significantly fewer errors but similar retrieval times when compared with the standard-normal condition. Thus, changing the presentation of minima may reduce risk and increase safety in instrument approaches, specifically with airport equipment outages. PMID:28491009

Determination of stability and control parameters of a light airplane from flight data using two estimation methods. [equation error and maximum likelihood methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, V.

1979-01-01

Two identification methods, the equation error method and the output error method, are used to estimate stability and control parameter values from flight data for a low-wing, single-engine, general aviation airplane. The estimated parameters from both methods are in very good agreement primarily because of sufficient accuracy of measured data. The estimated static parameters also agree with the results from steady flights. The effect of power different input forms are demonstrated. Examination of all results available gives the best values of estimated parameters and specifies their accuracies.

Fitting mechanistic epidemic models to data: A comparison of simple Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches.

PubMed

Li, Michael; Dushoff, Jonathan; Bolker, Benjamin M

2018-07-01

Simple mechanistic epidemic models are widely used for forecasting and parameter estimation of infectious diseases based on noisy case reporting data. Despite the widespread application of models to emerging infectious diseases, we know little about the comparative performance of standard computational-statistical frameworks in these contexts. Here we build a simple stochastic, discrete-time, discrete-state epidemic model with both process and observation error and use it to characterize the effectiveness of different flavours of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. We use fits to simulated data, where parameters (and future behaviour) are known, to explore the limitations of different platforms and quantify parameter estimation accuracy, forecasting accuracy, and computational efficiency across combinations of modeling decisions (e.g. discrete vs. continuous latent states, levels of stochasticity) and computational platforms (JAGS, NIMBLE, Stan).

Utility of a novel error-stepping method to improve gradient-based parameter identification by increasing the smoothness of the local objective surface: a case-study of pulmonary mechanics.

PubMed

Docherty, Paul D; Schranz, Christoph; Chase, J Geoffrey; Chiew, Yeong Shiong; Möller, Knut

2014-05-01

Accurate model parameter identification relies on accurate forward model simulations to guide convergence. However, some forward simulation methodologies lack the precision required to properly define the local objective surface and can cause failed parameter identification. The role of objective surface smoothness in identification of a pulmonary mechanics model was assessed using forward simulation from a novel error-stepping method and a proprietary Runge-Kutta method. The objective surfaces were compared via the identified parameter discrepancy generated in a Monte Carlo simulation and the local smoothness of the objective surfaces they generate. The error-stepping method generated significantly smoother error surfaces in each of the cases tested (p<0.0001) and more accurate model parameter estimates than the Runge-Kutta method in three of the four cases tested (p<0.0001) despite a 75% reduction in computational cost. Of note, parameter discrepancy in most cases was limited to a particular oblique plane, indicating a non-intuitive multi-parameter trade-off was occurring. The error-stepping method consistently improved or equalled the outcomes of the Runge-Kutta time-integration method for forward simulations of the pulmonary mechanics model. This study indicates that accurate parameter identification relies on accurate definition of the local objective function, and that parameter trade-off can occur on oblique planes resulting prematurely halted parameter convergence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating flow cytometer performance with weighted quadratic least squares analysis of LED and multi-level bead data.

PubMed

Parks, David R; El Khettabi, Faysal; Chase, Eric; Hoffman, Robert A; Perfetto, Stephen P; Spidlen, Josef; Wood, James C S; Moore, Wayne A; Brinkman, Ryan R

2017-03-01

We developed a fully automated procedure for analyzing data from LED pulses and multilevel bead sets to evaluate backgrounds and photoelectron scales of cytometer fluorescence channels. The method improves on previous formulations by fitting a full quadratic model with appropriate weighting and by providing standard errors and peak residuals as well as the fitted parameters themselves. Here we describe the details of the methods and procedures involved and present a set of illustrations and test cases that demonstrate the consistency and reliability of the results. The automated analysis and fitting procedure is generally quite successful in providing good estimates of the Spe (statistical photoelectron) scales and backgrounds for all the fluorescence channels on instruments with good linearity. The precision of the results obtained from LED data is almost always better than that from multilevel bead data, but the bead procedure is easy to carry out and provides results good enough for most purposes. Including standard errors on the fitted parameters is important for understanding the uncertainty in the values of interest. The weighted residuals give information about how well the data fits the model, and particularly high residuals indicate bad data points. Known photoelectron scales and measurement channel backgrounds make it possible to estimate the precision of measurements at different signal levels and the effects of compensated spectral overlap on measurement quality. Combining this information with measurements of standard samples carrying dyes of biological interest, we can make accurate comparisons of dye sensitivity among different instruments. Our method is freely available through the R/Bioconductor package flowQB. © 2017 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2017 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Evaluation of the geomorphometric results and residual values of a robust plane fitting method applied to different DTMs of various scales and accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koma, Zsófia; Székely, Balázs; Dorninger, Peter; Kovács, Gábor

2013-04-01

Due to the need for quantitative analysis of various geomorphological landforms, the importance of fast and effective automatic processing of the different kind of digital terrain models (DTMs) is increasing. The robust plane fitting (segmentation) method, developed at the Institute of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing at Vienna University of Technology, allows the processing of large 3D point clouds (containing millions of points), performs automatic detection of the planar elements of the surface via parameter estimation, and provides a considerable data reduction for the modeled area. Its geoscientific application allows the modeling of different landforms with the fitted planes as planar facets. In our study we aim to analyze the accuracy of the resulting set of fitted planes in terms of accuracy, model reliability and dependence on the input parameters. To this end we used DTMs of different scales and accuracy: (1) artificially generated 3D point cloud model with different magnitudes of error; (2) LiDAR data with 0.1 m error; (3) SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DTM database with 5 m accuracy; (4) DTM data from HRSC (High Resolution Stereo Camera) of the planet Mars with 10 m error. The analysis of the simulated 3D point cloud with normally distributed errors comprised different kinds of statistical tests (for example Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests) applied on the residual values and evaluation of dependence of the residual values on the input parameters. These tests have been repeated on the real data supplemented with the categorization of the segmentation result depending on the input parameters, model reliability and the geomorphological meaning of the fitted planes. The simulation results show that for the artificially generated data with normally distributed errors the null hypothesis can be accepted based on the residual value distribution being also normal, but in case of the test on the real data the residual value distribution is often mixed or unknown. The residual values are found to be dependent on two input parameters (standard deviation and maximum point-plane distance both defining distance thresholds for assigning points to a segment) mainly and the curvature of the surface affected mostly the distributions. The results of the analysis helped to decide which parameter set is the best for further modelling and provides the highest accuracy. With these results in mind the success of quasi-automatic modelling of the planar (for example plateau-like) features became more successful and often provided more accuracy. These studies were carried out partly in the framework of TMIS.ascrea project (Nr. 2001978) financed by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency (FFG); the contribution of ZsK was partly funded by Campus Hungary Internship TÁMOP-424B1.

Cross Validation Through Two-Dimensional Solution Surface for Cost-Sensitive SVM.

PubMed

Gu, Bin; Sheng, Victor S; Tay, Keng Yeow; Romano, Walter; Li, Shuo

2017-06-01

Model selection plays an important role in cost-sensitive SVM (CS-SVM). It has been proven that the global minimum cross validation (CV) error can be efficiently computed based on the solution path for one parameter learning problems. However, it is a challenge to obtain the global minimum CV error for CS-SVM based on one-dimensional solution path and traditional grid search, because CS-SVM is with two regularization parameters. In this paper, we propose a solution and error surfaces based CV approach (CV-SES). More specifically, we first compute a two-dimensional solution surface for CS-SVM based on a bi-parameter space partition algorithm, which can fit solutions of CS-SVM for all values of both regularization parameters. Then, we compute a two-dimensional validation error surface for each CV fold, which can fit validation errors of CS-SVM for all values of both regularization parameters. Finally, we obtain the CV error surface by superposing K validation error surfaces, which can find the global minimum CV error of CS-SVM. Experiments are conducted on seven datasets for cost sensitive learning and on four datasets for imbalanced learning. Experimental results not only show that our proposed CV-SES has a better generalization ability than CS-SVM with various hybrids between grid search and solution path methods, and than recent proposed cost-sensitive hinge loss SVM with three-dimensional grid search, but also show that CV-SES uses less running time.

Uncertainty estimates in broadband seismometer sensitivities using microseisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ringler, Adam T.; Storm, Tyler L.; Gee, Lind S.; Hutt, Charles R.; Wilson, David C.

2015-01-01

The midband sensitivity of a seismic instrument is one of the fundamental parameters used in published station metadata. Any errors in this value can compromise amplitude estimates in otherwise high-quality data. To estimate an upper bound in the uncertainty of the midband sensitivity for modern broadband instruments, we compare daily microseism (4- to 8-s period) amplitude ratios between the vertical components of colocated broadband sensors across the IRIS/USGS (network code IU) seismic network. We find that the mean of the 145,972 daily ratios used between 2002 and 2013 is 0.9895 with a standard deviation of 0.0231. This suggests that the ratio between instruments shows a small bias and considerable scatter. We also find that these ratios follow a standard normal distribution (R 2 = 0.95442), which suggests that the midband sensitivity of an instrument has an error of no greater than ±6 % with a 99 % confidence interval. This gives an upper bound on the precision to which we know the sensitivity of a fielded instrument.

Standard Errors of Equating for the Percentile Rank-Based Equipercentile Equating with Log-Linear Presmoothing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Tianyou

2009-01-01

Holland and colleagues derived a formula for analytical standard error of equating using the delta-method for the kernel equating method. Extending their derivation, this article derives an analytical standard error of equating procedure for the conventional percentile rank-based equipercentile equating with log-linear smoothing. This procedure is…

ERM model analysis for adaptation to hydrological model errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baymani-Nezhad, M.; Han, D.

2018-05-01

Hydrological conditions are changed continuously and these phenomenons generate errors on flood forecasting models and will lead to get unrealistic results. Therefore, to overcome these difficulties, a concept called model updating is proposed in hydrological studies. Real-time model updating is one of the challenging processes in hydrological sciences and has not been entirely solved due to lack of knowledge about the future state of the catchment under study. Basically, in terms of flood forecasting process, errors propagated from the rainfall-runoff model are enumerated as the main source of uncertainty in the forecasting model. Hence, to dominate the exciting errors, several methods have been proposed by researchers to update the rainfall-runoff models such as parameter updating, model state updating, and correction on input data. The current study focuses on investigations about the ability of rainfall-runoff model parameters to cope with three types of existing errors, timing, shape and volume as the common errors in hydrological modelling. The new lumped model, the ERM model, has been selected for this study to evaluate its parameters for its use in model updating to cope with the stated errors. Investigation about ten events proves that the ERM model parameters can be updated to cope with the errors without the need to recalibrate the model.

Use of fractional factorial design for optimization of digestion procedures followed by multi-element determination of essential and non-essential elements in nuts using ICP-OES technique.

PubMed

Momen, Awad A; Zachariadis, George A; Anthemidis, Aristidis N; Stratis, John A

2007-01-15

Two digestion procedures have been tested on nut samples for application in the determination of essential (Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, Mn, Zn) and non-essential (Al, Ba, Cd, Pb) elements by inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). These included wet digestions with HNO(3)/H(2)SO(4) and HNO(3)/H(2)SO(4)/H(2)O(2). The later one is recommended for better analytes recoveries (relative error<11%). Two calibrations (aqueous standard and standard addition) procedures were studied and proved that standard addition was preferable for all analytes. Experimental designs for seven factors (HNO(3), H(2)SO(4) and H(2)O(2) volumes, digestion time, pre-digestion time, temperature of the hot plate and sample weight) were used for optimization of sample digestion procedures. For this purpose Plackett-Burman fractional factorial design, which involve eight experiments was adopted. The factors HNO(3) and H(2)O(2) volume, and the digestion time were found to be the most important parameters. The instrumental conditions were also optimized (using peanut matrix rather than aqueous standard solutions) considering radio-frequency (rf) incident power, nebulizer argon gas flow rate and sample uptake flow rate. The analytical performance, such as limits of detection (LOD<0.74mugg(-1)), precision of the overall procedures (relative standard deviation between 2.0 and 8.2%) and accuracy (relative errors between 0.4 and 11%) were assessed statistically to evaluate the developed analytical procedures. The good agreement between measured and certified values for all analytes (relative error <11%) with respect to IAEA-331 (spinach leaves) and IAEA-359 (cabbage) indicates that the developed analytical method is well suited for further studies on the fate of major elements in nuts and possibly similar matrices.

Accelerating Convergence in Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Solutes in Lipid Membranes by Conducting a Random Walk along the Bilayer Normal.

PubMed

Neale, Chris; Madill, Chris; Rauscher, Sarah; Pomès, Régis

2013-08-13

All molecular dynamics simulations are susceptible to sampling errors, which degrade the accuracy and precision of observed values. The statistical convergence of simulations containing atomistic lipid bilayers is limited by the slow relaxation of the lipid phase, which can exceed hundreds of nanoseconds. These long conformational autocorrelation times are exacerbated in the presence of charged solutes, which can induce significant distortions of the bilayer structure. Such long relaxation times represent hidden barriers that induce systematic sampling errors in simulations of solute insertion. To identify optimal methods for enhancing sampling efficiency, we quantitatively evaluate convergence rates using generalized ensemble sampling algorithms in calculations of the potential of mean force for the insertion of the ionic side chain analog of arginine in a lipid bilayer. Umbrella sampling (US) is used to restrain solute insertion depth along the bilayer normal, the order parameter commonly used in simulations of molecular solutes in lipid bilayers. When US simulations are modified to conduct random walks along the bilayer normal using a Hamiltonian exchange algorithm, systematic sampling errors are eliminated more rapidly and the rate of statistical convergence of the standard free energy of binding of the solute to the lipid bilayer is increased 3-fold. We compute the ratio of the replica flux transmitted across a defined region of the order parameter to the replica flux that entered that region in Hamiltonian exchange simulations. We show that this quantity, the transmission factor, identifies sampling barriers in degrees of freedom orthogonal to the order parameter. The transmission factor is used to estimate the depth-dependent conformational autocorrelation times of the simulation system, some of which exceed the simulation time, and thereby identify solute insertion depths that are prone to systematic sampling errors and estimate the lower bound of the amount of sampling that is required to resolve these sampling errors. Finally, we extend our simulations and verify that the conformational autocorrelation times estimated by the transmission factor accurately predict correlation times that exceed the simulation time scale-something that, to our knowledge, has never before been achieved.

Monte Carlo simulations of the impact of troposphere, clock and measurement errors on the repeatability of VLBI positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pany, A.; Böhm, J.; MacMillan, D.; Schuh, H.; Nilsson, T.; Wresnik, J.

2011-01-01

Within the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) Monte Carlo simulations have been carried out to design the next generation VLBI system ("VLBI2010"). Simulated VLBI observables were generated taking into account the three most important stochastic error sources in VLBI, i.e. wet troposphere delay, station clock, and measurement error. Based on realistic physical properties of the troposphere and clocks we ran simulations to investigate the influence of the troposphere on VLBI analyses, and to gain information about the role of clock performance and measurement errors of the receiving system in the process of reaching VLBI2010's goal of mm position accuracy on a global scale. Our simulations confirm that the wet troposphere delay is the most important of these three error sources. We did not observe significant improvement of geodetic parameters if the clocks were simulated with an Allan standard deviation better than 1 × 10-14 at 50 min and found the impact of measurement errors to be relatively small compared with the impact of the troposphere. Along with simulations to test different network sizes, scheduling strategies, and antenna slew rates these studies were used as a basis for the definition and specification of VLBI2010 antennas and recording system and might also be an example for other space geodetic techniques.

Implementation of an experimental program to investigate the performance characteristics of OMEGA navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxa, E. G., Jr.

1974-01-01

A theoretical formulation of differential and composite OMEGA error is presented to establish hypotheses about the functional relationships between various parameters and OMEGA navigational errors. Computer software developed to provide for extensive statistical analysis of the phase data is described. Results from the regression analysis used to conduct parameter sensitivity studies on differential OMEGA error tend to validate the theoretically based hypothesis concerning the relationship between uncorrected differential OMEGA error and receiver separation range and azimuth. Limited results of measurement of receiver repeatability error and line of position measurement error are also presented.

Fuzzy-Estimation Control for Improvement Microwave Connection for Iraq Electrical Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoomod, Haider K.; Radi, Mohammed

2018-05-01

The demand for broadband wireless services is increasing day by day (as internet or radio broadcast and TV etc.) for this reason and optimal exploiting for this bandwidth may be other reasons indeed be there is problem in the communication channels. it’s necessary that exploiting the good part form this bandwidth. In this paper, we propose to use estimation technique for estimate channel availability in that moment and next one to know the error in the bandwidth channel for controlling the possibility data transferring through the channel. The proposed estimation based on the combination of the least Minimum square (LMS), Standard Kalman filter, and Modified Kalman filter. The error estimation in channel use as control parameter in fuzzy rules to adjusted the rate and size sending data through the network channel, and rearrangement the priorities of the buffered data (workstation control parameters, Texts, phone call, images, and camera video) for the worst cases of error in channel. The propose system is designed to management data communications through the channels connect among the Iraqi electrical grid stations. The proposed results show that the modified Kalman filter have a best result in time and noise estimation (0.1109 for 5% noise estimation to 0.3211 for 90% noise estimation) and the packets loss rate is reduced with ratio from (35% to 385%).

Difference-based ridge-type estimator of parameters in restricted partial linear model with correlated errors.

PubMed

Wu, Jibo

2016-01-01

In this article, a generalized difference-based ridge estimator is proposed for the vector parameter in a partial linear model when the errors are dependent. It is supposed that some additional linear constraints may hold to the whole parameter space. Its mean-squared error matrix is compared with the generalized restricted difference-based estimator. Finally, the performance of the new estimator is explained by a simulation study and a numerical example.

Optimum data weighting and error calibration for estimation of gravitational parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerch, Francis J.

1989-01-01

A new technique was developed for the weighting of data from satellite tracking systems in order to obtain an optimum least-squares solution and an error calibration for the solution parameters. Data sets from optical, electronic, and laser systems on 17 satellites in GEM-T1 Goddard Earth Model-T1 (GEM-T1) were employed toward application of this technique for gravity field parameters. Also GEM-T2 (31 satellites) was recently computed as a direct application of the method and is summarized. The method employs subset solutions of the data associated with the complete solution to agree with their error estimates. With the adjusted weights the process provides for an automatic calibration of the error estimates for the solution parameters. The data weights derived are generally much smaller than corresponding weights obtained from nominal values of observation accuracy or residuals. Independent tests show significant improvement for solutions with optimal weighting. The technique is general and may be applied to orbit parameters, station coordinates, or other parameters than the gravity model.

Determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ioup, George E.; Ioup, Juliette W.

1991-01-01

The final report for work on the determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution is presented. Papers and theses prepared during the research report period are included. Among all the research results reported, note should be made of the specific investigation of the determination of design and operation parameters for upper atmospheric research instrumentation to yield optimum resolution with deconvolution. A methodology was developed to determine design and operation parameters for error minimization when deconvolution is included in data analysis. An error surface is plotted versus the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and all parameters of interest. Instrumental characteristics will determine a curve in this space. The SNR and parameter values which give the projection from the curve to the surface, corresponding to the smallest value for the error, are the optimum values. These values are constrained by the curve and so will not necessarily correspond to an absolute minimum in the error surface.

Trans-dimensional inversion of microtremor array dispersion data with hierarchical autoregressive error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmer, Jan; Molnar, Sheri; Steininger, Gavin; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.

2012-02-01

This paper applies a general trans-dimensional Bayesian inference methodology and hierarchical autoregressive data-error models to the inversion of microtremor array dispersion data for shear wave velocity (vs) structure. This approach accounts for the limited knowledge of the optimal earth model parametrization (e.g. the number of layers in the vs profile) and of the data-error statistics in the resulting vs parameter uncertainty estimates. The assumed earth model parametrization influences estimates of parameter values and uncertainties due to different parametrizations leading to different ranges of data predictions. The support of the data for a particular model is often non-unique and several parametrizations may be supported. A trans-dimensional formulation accounts for this non-uniqueness by including a model-indexing parameter as an unknown so that groups of models (identified by the indexing parameter) are considered in the results. The earth model is parametrized in terms of a partition model with interfaces given over a depth-range of interest. In this work, the number of interfaces (layers) in the partition model represents the trans-dimensional model indexing. In addition, serial data-error correlations are addressed by augmenting the geophysical forward model with a hierarchical autoregressive error model that can account for a wide range of error processes with a small number of parameters. Hence, the limited knowledge about the true statistical distribution of data errors is also accounted for in the earth model parameter estimates, resulting in more realistic uncertainties and parameter values. Hierarchical autoregressive error models do not rely on point estimates of the model vector to estimate data-error statistics, and have no requirement for computing the inverse or determinant of a data-error covariance matrix. This approach is particularly useful for trans-dimensional inverse problems, as point estimates may not be representative of the state space that spans multiple subspaces of different dimensionalities. The order of the autoregressive process required to fit the data is determined here by posterior residual-sample examination and statistical tests. Inference for earth model parameters is carried out on the trans-dimensional posterior probability distribution by considering ensembles of parameter vectors. In particular, vs uncertainty estimates are obtained by marginalizing the trans-dimensional posterior distribution in terms of vs-profile marginal distributions. The methodology is applied to microtremor array dispersion data collected at two sites with significantly different geology in British Columbia, Canada. At both sites, results show excellent agreement with estimates from invasive measurements.

Predicting root zone soil moisture with soil properties and satellite near-surface moisture data across the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, D.; Manfreda, S.; Keller, K.; Smithwick, E. A. H.

2017-03-01

Satellite-based near-surface (0-2 cm) soil moisture estimates have global coverage, but do not capture variations of soil moisture in the root zone (up to 100 cm depth) and may be biased with respect to ground-based soil moisture measurements. Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) hydrologic data assimilation system that predicts bias in satellite soil moisture data to support the physically based Soil Moisture Analytical Relationship (SMAR) infiltration model, which estimates root zone soil moisture with satellite soil moisture data. The SMAR-EnKF model estimates a regional-scale bias parameter using available in situ data. The regional bias parameter is added to satellite soil moisture retrievals before their use in the SMAR model, and the bias parameter is updated continuously over time with the EnKF algorithm. In this study, the SMAR-EnKF assimilates in situ soil moisture at 43 Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) monitoring locations across the conterminous U.S. Multivariate regression models are developed to estimate SMAR parameters using soil physical properties and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) evapotranspiration data product as covariates. SMAR-EnKF root zone soil moisture predictions are in relatively close agreement with in situ observations when using optimal model parameters, with root mean square errors averaging 0.051 [cm3 cm-3] (standard error, s.e. = 0.005). The average root mean square error associated with a 20-fold cross-validation analysis with permuted SMAR parameter regression models increases moderately (0.082 [cm3 cm-3], s.e. = 0.004). The expected regional-scale satellite correction bias is negative in four out of six ecoregions studied (mean = -0.12 [-], s.e. = 0.002), excluding the Great Plains and Eastern Temperate Forests (0.053 [-], s.e. = 0.001). With its capability of estimating regional-scale satellite bias, the SMAR-EnKF system can predict root zone soil moisture over broad extents and has applications in drought predictions and other operational hydrologic modeling purposes.

Geolocation error tracking of ZY-3 three line cameras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Hongbo

2017-01-01

The high-accuracy geolocation of high-resolution satellite images (HRSIs) is a key issue for mapping and integrating multi-temporal, multi-sensor images. In this manuscript, we propose a new geometric frame for analysing the geometric error of a stereo HRSI, in which the geolocation error can be divided into three parts: the epipolar direction, cross base direction, and height direction. With this frame, we proved that the height error of three line cameras (TLCs) is independent of nadir images, and that the terrain effect has a limited impact on the geolocation errors. For ZY-3 error sources, the drift error in both the pitch and roll angle and its influence on the geolocation accuracy are analysed. Epipolar and common tie-point constraints are proposed to study the bundle adjustment of HRSIs. Epipolar constraints explain that the relative orientation can reduce the number of compensation parameters in the cross base direction and have a limited impact on the height accuracy. The common tie points adjust the pitch-angle errors to be consistent with each other for TLCs. Therefore, free-net bundle adjustment of a single strip cannot significantly improve the geolocation accuracy. Furthermore, the epipolar and common tie-point constraints cause the error to propagate into the adjacent strip when multiple strips are involved in the bundle adjustment, which results in the same attitude uncertainty throughout the whole block. Two adjacent strips-Orbit 305 and Orbit 381, covering 7 and 12 standard scenes separately-and 308 ground control points (GCPs) were used for the experiments. The experiments validate the aforementioned theory. The planimetric and height root mean square errors were 2.09 and 1.28 m, respectively, when two GCPs were settled at the beginning and end of the block.

Development and validity of methods for the estimation of temporal gait parameters from heel-attached inertial sensors in younger and older adults.

PubMed

Misu, Shogo; Asai, Tsuyoshi; Ono, Rei; Sawa, Ryuichi; Tsutsumimoto, Kota; Ando, Hiroshi; Doi, Takehiko

2017-09-01

The heel is likely a suitable location to which inertial sensors are attached for the detection of gait events. However, there are few studies to detect gait events and determine temporal gait parameters using sensors attached to the heels. We developed two methods to determine temporal gait parameters: detecting heel-contact using acceleration and detecting toe-off using angular velocity data (acceleration-angular velocity method; A-V method), and detecting both heel-contact and toe-off using angular velocity data (angular velocity-angular velocity method; V-V method). The aim of this study was to examine the concurrent validity of the A-V and V-V methods against the standard method, and to compare their accuracy. Temporal gait parameters were measured in 10 younger and 10 older adults. The intra-class correlation coefficients were excellent in both methods compared with the standard method (0.80 to 1.00). The root mean square errors of stance and swing time in the A-V method were smaller than the V-V method in older adults, although there were no significant discrepancies in the other comparisons. Our study suggests that inertial sensors attached to the heels, using the A-V method in particular, provide a valid measurement of temporal gait parameters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Note on Standard Deviation and Standard Error

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassani, Hossein; Ghodsi, Mansoureh; Howell, Gareth

2010-01-01

Many students confuse the standard deviation and standard error of the mean and are unsure which, if either, to use in presenting data. In this article, we endeavour to address these questions and cover some related ambiguities about these quantities.

Estimating population genetic parameters and comparing model goodness-of-fit using DNA sequences with error

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaoming; Fu, Yun-Xin; Maxwell, Taylor J.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2010-01-01

It is known that sequencing error can bias estimation of evolutionary or population genetic parameters. This problem is more prominent in deep resequencing studies because of their large sample size n, and a higher probability of error at each nucleotide site. We propose a new method based on the composite likelihood of the observed SNP configurations to infer population mutation rate θ = 4Neμ, population exponential growth rate R, and error rate ɛ, simultaneously. Using simulation, we show the combined effects of the parameters, θ, n, ɛ, and R on the accuracy of parameter estimation. We compared our maximum composite likelihood estimator (MCLE) of θ with other θ estimators that take into account the error. The results show the MCLE performs well when the sample size is large or the error rate is high. Using parametric bootstrap, composite likelihood can also be used as a statistic for testing the model goodness-of-fit of the observed DNA sequences. The MCLE method is applied to sequence data on the ANGPTL4 gene in 1832 African American and 1045 European American individuals. PMID:19952140

On the Quality of Point-Clouds Derived from Sfm-Photogrammetry Applied to UAS Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carbonneau, P.; James, T.

2014-12-01

Structure from Motion photogrammetry (SfM-photogrammetry) recently appeared in environmental sciences as an impressive tool allowing for the creation of topographic data from unstructured imagery. Several authors have tested the performance of SfM-photogrammetry vs that of TLS or dGPS. Whilst the initial results were very promising, there is currently a growing awareness that systematic deformations occur in DEMs and point-clouds derived from SfM-photogrammetry. Notably, some authors have identified a systematic doming manifest as an increasing error vs distance to the model centre. Simulation studies have confirmed that this error is due to errors in the calibration of camera distortions. This work aims to further investigate these effects in the presence of real data. We start with a dataset of 220 images acquired from a sUAS. After obtaining an initial self-calibration of the camera lens with Agisoft Photoscan, our method consists in applying systematic perturbations to 2 key lens parameters: Focal length and the k1 distortion parameter. For each perturbation, a point-cloud was produced and compared to LiDAR data. After deriving the mean and standard deviation of the error residuals (ɛ), a 2nd order polynomial surface was fitted to the errors point-cloud and the peak ɛ defined as the mathematical extrema of this surface. The results are presented in figure 1. This figure shows that lens perturbations can induce a range of errors with systematic behaviours. Peak ɛ is primarily controlled by K1 with a secondary control exerted by the focal length. These results allow us to state that: To limit the peak ɛ to 10cm, the K1 parameter must be calibrated to within 0.00025 and the focal length to within 2.5 pixels (≈10 µm). This level of calibration accuracy can only be achieved with proper design of image acquisition and control network geometry. Our main point is therefore that SfM is not a bypass to a rigorous and well-informed photogrammetric approach. Users of SfM-photogrammetry will still require basic training and knowledge in the fundamentals of photogrammetry. This is especially true for applications where very small topographic changes need to be detected or where gradient-sensitive processes need to be modelled.

Gaussian copula as a likelihood function for environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wani, O.; Espadas, G.; Cecinati, F.; Rieckermann, J.

2017-12-01

Parameter estimation of environmental models always comes with uncertainty. To formally quantify this parametric uncertainty, a likelihood function needs to be formulated, which is defined as the probability of observations given fixed values of the parameter set. A likelihood function allows us to infer parameter values from observations using Bayes' theorem. The challenge is to formulate a likelihood function that reliably describes the error generating processes which lead to the observed monitoring data, such as rainfall and runoff. If the likelihood function is not representative of the error statistics, the parameter inference will give biased parameter values. Several uncertainty estimation methods that are currently being used employ Gaussian processes as a likelihood function, because of their favourable analytical properties. Box-Cox transformation is suggested to deal with non-symmetric and heteroscedastic errors e.g. for flow data which are typically more uncertain in high flows than in periods with low flows. Problem with transformations is that the results are conditional on hyper-parameters, for which it is difficult to formulate the analyst's belief a priori. In an attempt to address this problem, in this research work we suggest learning the nature of the error distribution from the errors made by the model in the "past" forecasts. We use a Gaussian copula to generate semiparametric error distributions . 1) We show that this copula can be then used as a likelihood function to infer parameters, breaking away from the practice of using multivariate normal distributions. Based on the results from a didactical example of predicting rainfall runoff, 2) we demonstrate that the copula captures the predictive uncertainty of the model. 3) Finally, we find that the properties of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of errors are captured well by the copula, eliminating the need to use transforms. In summary, our findings suggest that copulas are an interesting departure from the usage of fully parametric distributions as likelihood functions - and they could help us to better capture the statistical properties of errors and make more reliable predictions.

Performance of Transit Model Fitting in Processing Four Years of Kepler Science Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jie; Burke, Christopher J.; Jenkins, Jon Michael; Quintana, Elisa V.; Rowe, Jason; Seader, Shawn; Tenenbaum, Peter; Twicken, Joseph D.

2014-06-01

We present transit model fitting performance of the Kepler Science Operations Center (SOC) Pipeline in processing four years of science data, which were collected by the Kepler spacecraft from May 13, 2009 to May 12, 2013. Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), which represent transiting planet detections, are generated by the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) component of the pipeline and subsequently processed in the Data Validation (DV) component. The transit model is used in DV to fit TCEs and derive parameters that are used in various diagnostic tests to validate planetary candidates. The standard transit model includes five fit parameters: transit epoch time (i.e. central time of first transit), orbital period, impact parameter, ratio of planet radius to star radius and ratio of semi-major axis to star radius. In the latest Kepler SOC pipeline codebase, the light curve of the target for which a TCE is generated is initially fitted by a trapezoidal model with four parameters: transit epoch time, depth, duration and ingress time. The trapezoidal model fit, implemented with repeated Levenberg-Marquardt minimization, provides a quick and high fidelity assessment of the transit signal. The fit parameters of the trapezoidal model with the minimum chi-square metric are converted to set initial values of the fit parameters of the standard transit model. Additional parameters, such as the equilibrium temperature and effective stellar flux of the planet candidate, are derived from the fit parameters of the standard transit model to characterize pipeline candidates for the search of Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone. The uncertainties of all derived parameters are updated in the latest codebase to take into account for the propagated errors of the fit parameters as well as the uncertainties in stellar parameters. The results of the transit model fitting of the TCEs identified by the Kepler SOC Pipeline, including fitted and derived parameters, fit goodness metrics and diagnostic figures, are included in the DV report and one-page report summary, which are accessible by the science community at NASA Exoplanet Archive. Funding for the Kepler Mission has been provided by the NASA Science Mission Directorate.

Optimized tuner selection for engine performance estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L. (Inventor); Garg, Sanjay (Inventor)

2013-01-01

A methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multi-variable iterative search routine which seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. Theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values are derived at steady-state operating conditions, and the tuner selection routine is applied to minimize these values. The new methodology yields an improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy.

Conditional Standard Errors, Reliability and Decision Consistency of Performance Levels Using Polytomous IRT.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Tianyou; And Others

M. J. Kolen, B. A. Hanson, and R. L. Brennan (1992) presented a procedure for assessing the conditional standard error of measurement (CSEM) of scale scores using a strong true-score model. They also investigated the ways of using nonlinear transformation from number-correct raw score to scale score to equalize the conditional standard error along…

Psychometric Evaluation of the Brachial Assessment Tool Part 1: Reproducibility.

PubMed

Hill, Bridget; Williams, Gavin; Olver, John; Ferris, Scott; Bialocerkowski, Andrea

2018-04-01

To evaluate reproducibility (reliability and agreement) of the Brachial Assessment Tool (BrAT), a new patient-reported outcome measure for adults with traumatic brachial plexus injury (BPI). Prospective repeated-measure design. Outpatient clinics. Adults with confirmed traumatic BPI (N=43; age range, 19-82y). People with BPI completed the 31-item 4-response BrAT twice, 2 weeks apart. Results for the 3 subscales and summed score were compared at time 1 and time 2 to determine reliability, including systematic differences using paired t tests, test retest using intraclass correlation coefficient model 1,1 (ICC 1,1 ), and internal consistency using Cronbach α. Agreement parameters included standard error of measurement, minimal detectable change, and limits of agreement. BrAT. Test-retest reliability was excellent (ICC 1,1 =.90-.97). Internal consistency was high (Cronbach α=.90-.98). Measurement error was relatively low (standard error of measurement range, 3.1-8.8). A change of >4 for subscale 1, >6 for subscale 2, >4 for subscale 3, and >10 for the summed score is indicative of change over and above measurement error. Limits of agreement ranged from ±4.4 (subscale 3) to 11.61 (summed score). These findings support the use of the BrAT as a reproducible patient-reported outcome measure for adults with traumatic BPI with evidence of appropriate reliability and agreement for both individual and group comparisons. Further psychometric testing is required to establish the construct validity and responsiveness of the BrAT. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Methods for simulating nutritional requirement and response studies with all organisms to increase research efficiency.

PubMed

Vedenov, Dmitry; Alhotan, Rashed A; Wang, Runlian; Pesti, Gene M

2017-02-01

Nutritional requirements and responses of all organisms are estimated using various models representing the response to different dietary levels of the nutrient in question. To help nutritionists design experiments for estimating responses and requirements, we developed a simulation workbook using Microsoft Excel. The objective of the present study was to demonstrate the influence of different numbers of nutrient levels, ranges of nutrient levels and replications per nutrient level on the estimates of requirements based on common nutritional response models. The user provides estimates of the shape of the response curve, requirements and other parameters and observation to observation variation. The Excel workbook then produces 1-1000 randomly simulated responses based on the given response curve and estimates the standard errors of the requirement (and other parameters) from different models as an indication of the expected power of the experiment. Interpretations are based on the assumption that the smaller the standard error of the requirement, the more powerful the experiment. The user can see the potential effects of using one or more subjects, different nutrient levels, etc., on the expected outcome of future experiments. From a theoretical perspective, each organism should have some enzyme-catalysed reaction whose rate is limited by the availability of some limiting nutrient. The response to the limiting nutrient should therefore be similar to enzyme kinetics. In conclusion, the workbook eliminates some of the guesswork involved in designing experiments and determining the minimum number of subjects needed to achieve desired outcomes.

Analysis, optimization, and implementation of a hybrid DS/FFH spread-spectrum technique for smart grid communications

DOE PAGES

Olama, Mohammed M.; Ma, Xiao; Killough, Stephen M.; ...

2015-03-12

In recent years, there has been great interest in using hybrid spread-spectrum (HSS) techniques for commercial applications, particularly in the Smart Grid, in addition to their inherent uses in military communications. This is because HSS can accommodate high data rates with high link integrity, even in the presence of significant multipath effects and interfering signals. A highly useful form of this transmission technique for many types of command, control, and sensing applications is the specific code-related combination of standard direct sequence modulation with fast frequency hopping, denoted hybrid DS/FFH, wherein multiple frequency hops occur within a single data-bit time. Inmore » this paper, error-probability analyses are performed for a hybrid DS/FFH system over standard Gaussian and fading-type channels, progressively including the effects from wide- and partial-band jamming, multi-user interference, and varying degrees of Rayleigh and Rician fading. In addition, an optimization approach is formulated that minimizes the bit-error performance of a hybrid DS/FFH communication system and solves for the resulting system design parameters. The optimization objective function is non-convex and can be solved by applying the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions. We also present our efforts toward exploring the design, implementation, and evaluation of a hybrid DS/FFH radio transceiver using a single FPGA. Numerical and experimental results are presented under widely varying design parameters to demonstrate the adaptability of the waveform for varied harsh smart grid RF signal environments.« less

Blinded versus unblinded estimation of a correlation coefficient to inform interim design adaptations.

PubMed

Kunz, Cornelia U; Stallard, Nigel; Parsons, Nicholas; Todd, Susan; Friede, Tim

2017-03-01

Regulatory authorities require that the sample size of a confirmatory trial is calculated prior to the start of the trial. However, the sample size quite often depends on parameters that might not be known in advance of the study. Misspecification of these parameters can lead to under- or overestimation of the sample size. Both situations are unfavourable as the first one decreases the power and the latter one leads to a waste of resources. Hence, designs have been suggested that allow a re-assessment of the sample size in an ongoing trial. These methods usually focus on estimating the variance. However, for some methods the performance depends not only on the variance but also on the correlation between measurements. We develop and compare different methods for blinded estimation of the correlation coefficient that are less likely to introduce operational bias when the blinding is maintained. Their performance with respect to bias and standard error is compared to the unblinded estimator. We simulated two different settings: one assuming that all group means are the same and one assuming that different groups have different means. Simulation results show that the naïve (one-sample) estimator is only slightly biased and has a standard error comparable to that of the unblinded estimator. However, if the group means differ, other estimators have better performance depending on the sample size per group and the number of groups. © 2016 The Authors. Biometrical Journal Published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Blinded versus unblinded estimation of a correlation coefficient to inform interim design adaptations

PubMed Central

Stallard, Nigel; Parsons, Nicholas; Todd, Susan; Friede, Tim

2016-01-01

Regulatory authorities require that the sample size of a confirmatory trial is calculated prior to the start of the trial. However, the sample size quite often depends on parameters that might not be known in advance of the study. Misspecification of these parameters can lead to under‐ or overestimation of the sample size. Both situations are unfavourable as the first one decreases the power and the latter one leads to a waste of resources. Hence, designs have been suggested that allow a re‐assessment of the sample size in an ongoing trial. These methods usually focus on estimating the variance. However, for some methods the performance depends not only on the variance but also on the correlation between measurements. We develop and compare different methods for blinded estimation of the correlation coefficient that are less likely to introduce operational bias when the blinding is maintained. Their performance with respect to bias and standard error is compared to the unblinded estimator. We simulated two different settings: one assuming that all group means are the same and one assuming that different groups have different means. Simulation results show that the naïve (one‐sample) estimator is only slightly biased and has a standard error comparable to that of the unblinded estimator. However, if the group means differ, other estimators have better performance depending on the sample size per group and the number of groups. PMID:27886393

A Novel Error Model of Optical Systems and an On-Orbit Calibration Method for Star Sensors.

PubMed

Wang, Shuang; Geng, Yunhai; Jin, Rongyu

2015-12-12

In order to improve the on-orbit measurement accuracy of star sensors, the effects of image-plane rotary error, image-plane tilt error and distortions of optical systems resulting from the on-orbit thermal environment were studied in this paper. Since these issues will affect the precision of star image point positions, in this paper, a novel measurement error model based on the traditional error model is explored. Due to the orthonormal characteristics of image-plane rotary-tilt errors and the strong nonlinearity among these error parameters, it is difficult to calibrate all the parameters simultaneously. To solve this difficulty, for the new error model, a modified two-step calibration method based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Least Square Methods (LSM) is presented. The former one is used to calibrate the main point drift, focal length error and distortions of optical systems while the latter estimates the image-plane rotary-tilt errors. With this calibration method, the precision of star image point position influenced by the above errors is greatly improved from 15.42% to 1.389%. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the presented measurement error model for star sensors has higher precision. Moreover, the proposed two-step method can effectively calibrate model error parameters, and the calibration precision of on-orbit star sensors is also improved obviously.

Comparing Measurement Error between Two Different Methods of Measurement of Various Magnitudes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zavorsky, Gerald S.

2010-01-01

Measurement error is a common problem in several fields of research such as medicine, physiology, and exercise science. The standard deviation of repeated measurements on the same person is the measurement error. One way of presenting measurement error is called the repeatability, which is 2.77 multiplied by the within subject standard deviation.…

Climbing fibers predict movement kinematics and performance errors.

PubMed

Streng, Martha L; Popa, Laurentiu S; Ebner, Timothy J

2017-09-01

Requisite for understanding cerebellar function is a complete characterization of the signals provided by complex spike (CS) discharge of Purkinje cells, the output neurons of the cerebellar cortex. Numerous studies have provided insights into CS function, with the most predominant view being that they are evoked by error events. However, several reports suggest that CSs encode other aspects of movements and do not always respond to errors or unexpected perturbations. Here, we evaluated CS firing during a pseudo-random manual tracking task in the monkey ( Macaca mulatta ). This task provides extensive coverage of the work space and relative independence of movement parameters, delivering a robust data set to assess the signals that activate climbing fibers. Using reverse correlation, we determined feedforward and feedback CSs firing probability maps with position, velocity, and acceleration, as well as position error, a measure of tracking performance. The direction and magnitude of the CS modulation were quantified using linear regression analysis. The major findings are that CSs significantly encode all three kinematic parameters and position error, with acceleration modulation particularly common. The modulation is not related to "events," either for position error or kinematics. Instead, CSs are spatially tuned and provide a linear representation of each parameter evaluated. The CS modulation is largely predictive. Similar analyses show that the simple spike firing is modulated by the same parameters as the CSs. Therefore, CSs carry a broader array of signals than previously described and argue for climbing fiber input having a prominent role in online motor control. NEW & NOTEWORTHY This article demonstrates that complex spike (CS) discharge of cerebellar Purkinje cells encodes multiple parameters of movement, including motor errors and kinematics. The CS firing is not driven by error or kinematic events; instead it provides a linear representation of each parameter. In contrast with the view that CSs carry feedback signals, the CSs are predominantly predictive of upcoming position errors and kinematics. Therefore, climbing fibers carry multiple and predictive signals for online motor control. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

CTER-rapid estimation of CTF parameters with error assessment.

PubMed

Penczek, Pawel A; Fang, Jia; Li, Xueming; Cheng, Yifan; Loerke, Justus; Spahn, Christian M T

2014-05-01

In structural electron microscopy, the accurate estimation of the Contrast Transfer Function (CTF) parameters, particularly defocus and astigmatism, is of utmost importance for both initial evaluation of micrograph quality and for subsequent structure determination. Due to increases in the rate of data collection on modern microscopes equipped with new generation cameras, it is also important that the CTF estimation can be done rapidly and with minimal user intervention. Finally, in order to minimize the necessity for manual screening of the micrographs by a user it is necessary to provide an assessment of the errors of fitted parameters values. In this work we introduce CTER, a CTF parameters estimation method distinguished by its computational efficiency. The efficiency of the method makes it suitable for high-throughput EM data collection, and enables the use of a statistical resampling technique, bootstrap, that yields standard deviations of estimated defocus and astigmatism amplitude and angle, thus facilitating the automation of the process of screening out inferior micrograph data. Furthermore, CTER also outputs the spatial frequency limit imposed by reciprocal space aliasing of the discrete form of the CTF and the finite window size. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of CTER using a data set collected on a 300kV Tecnai Polara (FEI) using the K2 Summit DED camera in super-resolution counting mode. Using CTER we obtained a structure of the 80S ribosome whose large subunit had a resolution of 4.03Å without, and 3.85Å with, inclusion of astigmatism parameters. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reliability of capturing foot parameters using digital scanning and the neutral suspension casting technique

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A clinical study was conducted to determine the intra and inter-rater reliability of digital scanning and the neutral suspension casting technique to measure six foot parameters. The neutral suspension casting technique is a commonly utilised method for obtaining a negative impression of the foot prior to orthotic fabrication. Digital scanning offers an alternative to the traditional plaster of Paris techniques. Methods Twenty one healthy participants volunteered to take part in the study. Six casts and six digital scans were obtained from each participant by two raters of differing clinical experience. The foot parameters chosen for investigation were cast length (mm), forefoot width (mm), rearfoot width (mm), medial arch height (mm), lateral arch height (mm) and forefoot to rearfoot alignment (degrees). Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to determine the intra and inter-rater reliability. Measurement error was assessed through the calculation of the standard error of the measurement (SEM) and smallest real difference (SRD). Results ICC values for all foot parameters using digital scanning ranged between 0.81-0.99 for both intra and inter-rater reliability. For neutral suspension casting technique inter-rater reliability values ranged from 0.57-0.99 and intra-rater reliability values ranging from 0.36-0.99 for rater 1 and 0.49-0.99 for rater 2. Conclusions The findings of this study indicate that digital scanning is a reliable technique, irrespective of clinical experience, with reduced measurement variability in all foot parameters investigated when compared to neutral suspension casting. PMID:21375757

Atmospheric density determination using high-accuracy satellite GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tingling, R.; Miao, J.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric drag is the main error source in the orbit determination and prediction of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, however, empirical models which are used to account for atmosphere often exhibit density errors around 15 30%. Atmospheric density determination thus become an important topic for atmospheric researchers. Based on the relation between atmospheric drag force and the decay of orbit semi-major axis, we derived atmospheric density along the trajectory of CHAMP with its Rapid Science Orbit (RSO) data. Three primary parameters are calculated, including the ratio of cross sectional area to mass, drag coefficient, and the decay of semi-major axis caused by atmospheric drag. We also analyzed the source of error and made a comparison between GPS-derived and reference density. Result on 2 Dec 2008 shows that the mean error of GPS-derived density can decrease from 29.21% to 9.20% when time span adopted on the process of computation increase from 10min to 50min. Result for the whole December indicates that when the time span meet the condition that the amplitude of the decay of semi-major axis is much greater than its standard deviation, then density precision of 10% can be achieved.

Use of Quality Controlled AIRS Temperature Soundings to Improve Forecast Skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Reale, Oreste; Iredell, Lena

2010-01-01

AIRS was launched on EOS Aqua on May 4, 2002, together with AMSU-A and HSB, to form a next generation polar orbiting infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system. The primary products of AIRS/AMSU-A are twice daily global fields of atmospheric temperature-humidity profiles, ozone profiles, sea/land surface skin temperature, and cloud related parameters including OLR. Also included are the clear column radiances used to derive these products which are representative of the radiances AIRS would have seen if there were no clouds in the field of view. All products also have error estimates. The sounding goals of AIRS are to produce 1 km tropospheric layer mean temperatures with an rms error of 1K, and layer precipitable water with an rms error of 20 percent, in cases with up to 90 percent effective cloud cover. The products are designed for data assimilation purposes for the improvement of numerical weather prediction, as well as for the study of climate and meteorological processes. With regard to data assimilation, one can use either the products themselves or the clear column radiances from which the products were derived. The AIRS Version 5 retrieval algorithm is now being used operationally at the Goddard DISC in the routine generation of geophysical parameters derived from AIRS/AMSU data. A major innovation in Version 5 is the ability to generate case-by-case level-by-level error estimates for retrieved quantities and clear column radiances, and the use of these error estimates for Quality Control. The temperature profile error estimates are used to determine a case-by-case characteristic pressure pbest, down to which the profile is considered acceptable for data assimilation purposes. The characteristic pressure p(sub best) is determined by comparing the case dependent error estimate (delta)T(p) to the threshold values (Delta)T(p). The AIRS Version 5 data set provides error estimates of T(p) at all levels, and also profile dependent values of pbest based on use of a Standard profile dependent threshold (Delta)T(p). These Standard thresholds were designed as a compromise between optimal use for data assimilation purposes, which requires highest accuracy (tighter Quality Control), and climate purposes, which requires more spatial coverage (looser Quality Control). Subsequent research using Version 5 sounding and error estimates showed that tighter Quality Control performs better for data assimilation proposes, while looser Quality Control better spatial coverage) performs better for climate purposes. We conducted a number of data assimilation experiments using the NASA GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System as a step toward finding an optimum balance of spatial coverage and sounding accuracy with regard to improving forecast skill. The model was run at a horizontal resolution of 0.5 degree latitude x 0.67 degree longitude with 72 vertical levels. These experiments were run during four different seasons, each using a different year. The AIRS temperature profiles were presented to the GEOS-5 analysis as rawinsonde profiles, and the profile error estimates (delta)T(p) were used as the uncertainty for each measurement in the data assimilation process.

Experimental validation of A-mode ultrasound acquisition system for computer assisted orthopaedic surgery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzo, Danilo; De Momi, Elena; Beretta, Elisa; Cerveri, Pietro; Perona, Franco; Ferrigno, Giancarlo

2009-02-01

Computer Assisted Orthopaedic Surgery (CAOS) systems improve the results and the standardization of surgical interventions. Anatomical landmarks and bone surface detection is straightforward to either register the surgical space with the pre-operative imaging space and to compute biomechanical parameters for prosthesis alignment. Surface points acquisition increases the intervention invasiveness and can be influenced by the soft tissue layer interposition (7-15mm localization errors). This study is aimed at evaluating the accuracy of a custom-made A-mode ultrasound (US) system for non invasive detection of anatomical landmarks and surfaces. A-mode solutions eliminate the necessity of US images segmentation, offers real-time signal processing and requires less invasive equipment. The system consists in a single transducer US probe optically tracked, a pulser/receiver and an FPGA-based board, which is responsible for logic control command generation and for real-time signal processing and three custom-made board (signal acquisition, blanking and synchronization). We propose a new calibration method of the US system. The experimental validation was then performed measuring the length of known-shape polymethylmethacrylate boxes filled with pure water and acquiring bone surface points on a bovine bone phantom covered with soft-tissue mimicking materials. Measurement errors were computed through MR and CT images acquisitions of the phantom. Points acquisition on bone surface with the US system demonstrated lower errors (1.2mm) than standard pointer acquisition (4.2mm).

An improved estimator for the hydration of fat-free mass from in vivo measurements subject to additive technical errors.

PubMed

Kinnamon, Daniel D; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Ludwig, David A; Lipshultz, Steven E; Miller, Tracie L

2010-04-01

The hydration of fat-free mass, or hydration fraction (HF), is often defined as a constant body composition parameter in a two-compartment model and then estimated from in vivo measurements. We showed that the widely used estimator for the HF parameter in this model, the mean of the ratios of measured total body water (TBW) to fat-free mass (FFM) in individual subjects, can be inaccurate in the presence of additive technical errors. We then proposed a new instrumental variables estimator that accurately estimates the HF parameter in the presence of such errors. In Monte Carlo simulations, the mean of the ratios of TBW to FFM was an inaccurate estimator of the HF parameter, and inferences based on it had actual type I error rates more than 13 times the nominal 0.05 level under certain conditions. The instrumental variables estimator was accurate and maintained an actual type I error rate close to the nominal level in all simulations. When estimating and performing inference on the HF parameter, the proposed instrumental variables estimator should yield accurate estimates and correct inferences in the presence of additive technical errors, but the mean of the ratios of TBW to FFM in individual subjects may not.

Trans-dimensional matched-field geoacoustic inversion with hierarchical error models and interacting Markov chains.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E

2012-10-01

This paper develops a trans-dimensional approach to matched-field geoacoustic inversion, including interacting Markov chains to improve efficiency and an autoregressive model to account for correlated errors. The trans-dimensional approach and hierarchical seabed model allows inversion without assuming any particular parametrization by relaxing model specification to a range of plausible seabed models (e.g., in this case, the number of sediment layers is an unknown parameter). Data errors are addressed by sampling statistical error-distribution parameters, including correlated errors (covariance), by applying a hierarchical autoregressive error model. The well-known difficulty of low acceptance rates for trans-dimensional jumps is addressed with interacting Markov chains, resulting in a substantial increase in efficiency. The trans-dimensional seabed model and the hierarchical error model relax the degree of prior assumptions required in the inversion, resulting in substantially improved (more realistic) uncertainty estimates and a more automated algorithm. In particular, the approach gives seabed parameter uncertainty estimates that account for uncertainty due to prior model choice (layering and data error statistics). The approach is applied to data measured on a vertical array in the Mediterranean Sea.

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling.

PubMed

Schuurman, Noémi K; Houtveen, Jan H; Hamaker, Ellen L

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30-50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters.

Bayesian inversions of a dynamic vegetation model in four European grassland sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minet, J.; Laloy, E.; Tychon, B.; François, L.

2015-01-01

Eddy covariance data from four European grassland sites are used to probabilistically invert the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (DVM) with ten unknown parameters, using the DREAM(ZS) Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. We compare model inversions considering both homoscedastic and heteroscedastic eddy covariance residual errors, with variances either fixed a~priori or jointly inferred with the model parameters. Agreements between measured and simulated data during calibration are comparable with previous studies, with root-mean-square error (RMSE) of simulated daily gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (RECO) and evapotranspiration (ET) ranging from 1.73 to 2.19 g C m-2 day-1, 1.04 to 1.56 g C m-2 day-1, and 0.50 to 1.28 mm day-1, respectively. In validation, mismatches between measured and simulated data are larger, but still with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency scores above 0.5 for three out of the four sites. Although measurement errors associated with eddy covariance data are known to be heteroscedastic, we showed that assuming a classical linear heteroscedastic model of the residual errors in the inversion do not fully remove heteroscedasticity. Since the employed heteroscedastic error model allows for larger deviations between simulated and measured data as the magnitude of the measured data increases, this error model expectedly lead to poorer data fitting compared to inversions considering a constant variance of the residual errors. Furthermore, sampling the residual error variances along with model parameters results in overall similar model parameter posterior distributions as those obtained by fixing these variances beforehand, while slightly improving model performance. Despite the fact that the calibrated model is generally capable of fitting the data within measurement errors, systematic bias in the model simulations are observed. These are likely due to model inadequacies such as shortcomings in the photosynthesis modelling. Besides model behaviour, difference between model parameter posterior distributions among the four grassland sites are also investigated. It is shown that the marginal distributions of the specific leaf area and characteristic mortality time parameters can be explained by site-specific ecophysiological characteristics. Lastly, the possibility of finding a common set of parameters among the four experimental sites is discussed.

Optimal Variational Asymptotic Method for Nonlinear Fractional Partial Differential Equations.

PubMed

Baranwal, Vipul K; Pandey, Ram K; Singh, Om P

2014-01-01

We propose optimal variational asymptotic method to solve time fractional nonlinear partial differential equations. In the proposed method, an arbitrary number of auxiliary parameters γ 0, γ 1, γ 2,… and auxiliary functions H 0(x), H 1(x), H 2(x),… are introduced in the correction functional of the standard variational iteration method. The optimal values of these parameters are obtained by minimizing the square residual error. To test the method, we apply it to solve two important classes of nonlinear partial differential equations: (1) the fractional advection-diffusion equation with nonlinear source term and (2) the fractional Swift-Hohenberg equation. Only few iterations are required to achieve fairly accurate solutions of both the first and second problems.

Optimal solutions for the evolution of a social obesity epidemic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikander, Waseem; Khan, Umar; Mohyud-Din, Syed Tauseef

2017-06-01

In this work, a novel modification in the traditional homotopy perturbation method (HPM) is proposed by embedding an auxiliary parameter in the boundary condition. The scheme is used to carry out a mathematical evaluation of the social obesity epidemic model. The incidence of excess weight and obesity in adulthood population and prediction of its behavior in the coming years is analyzed by using a modified algorithm. The proposed method increases the convergence of the approximate analytical solution over the domain of the problem. Furthermore, a convenient way is considered for choosing an optimal value of auxiliary parameters via minimizing the total residual error. The graphical comparison of the obtained results with the standard HPM explicitly reveals the accuracy and efficiency of the developed scheme.

Fitting membrane resistance along with action potential shape in cardiac myocytes improves convergence: application of a multi-objective parallel genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Kaur, Jaspreet; Nygren, Anders; Vigmond, Edward J

2014-01-01

Fitting parameter sets of non-linear equations in cardiac single cell ionic models to reproduce experimental behavior is a time consuming process. The standard procedure is to adjust maximum channel conductances in ionic models to reproduce action potentials (APs) recorded in isolated cells. However, vastly different sets of parameters can produce similar APs. Furthermore, even with an excellent AP match in case of single cell, tissue behaviour may be very different. We hypothesize that this uncertainty can be reduced by additionally fitting membrane resistance (Rm). To investigate the importance of Rm, we developed a genetic algorithm approach which incorporated Rm data calculated at a few points in the cycle, in addition to AP morphology. Performance was compared to a genetic algorithm using only AP morphology data. The optimal parameter sets and goodness of fit as computed by the different methods were compared. First, we fit an ionic model to itself, starting from a random parameter set. Next, we fit the AP of one ionic model to that of another. Finally, we fit an ionic model to experimentally recorded rabbit action potentials. Adding the extra objective (Rm, at a few voltages) to the AP fit, lead to much better convergence. Typically, a smaller MSE (mean square error, defined as the average of the squared error between the target AP and AP that is to be fitted) was achieved in one fifth of the number of generations compared to using only AP data. Importantly, the variability in fit parameters was also greatly reduced, with many parameters showing an order of magnitude decrease in variability. Adding Rm to the objective function improves the robustness of fitting, better preserving tissue level behavior, and should be incorporated.

A method of camera calibration in the measurement process with reference mark for approaching observation space target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hua; Zeng, Luan

2017-11-01

Binocular stereoscopic vision can be used for space-based space targets near observation. In order to solve the problem that the traditional binocular vision system cannot work normally after interference, an online calibration method of binocular stereo measuring camera with self-reference is proposed. The method uses an auxiliary optical imaging device to insert the image of the standard reference object into the edge of the main optical path and image with the target on the same focal plane, which is equivalent to a standard reference in the binocular imaging optical system; When the position of the system and the imaging device parameters are disturbed, the image of the standard reference will change accordingly in the imaging plane, and the position of the standard reference object does not change. The camera's external parameters can be re-calibrated by the visual relationship of the standard reference object. The experimental results show that the maximum mean square error of the same object can be reduced from the original 72.88mm to 1.65mm when the right camera is deflected by 0.4 degrees and the left camera is high and low with 0.2° rotation. This method can realize the online calibration of binocular stereoscopic vision measurement system, which can effectively improve the anti - jamming ability of the system.

Two-part models with stochastic processes for modelling longitudinal semicontinuous data: Computationally efficient inference and modelling the overall marginal mean.

PubMed

Yiu, Sean; Tom, Brian Dm

2017-01-01

Several researchers have described two-part models with patient-specific stochastic processes for analysing longitudinal semicontinuous data. In theory, such models can offer greater flexibility than the standard two-part model with patient-specific random effects. However, in practice, the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood (i.e. integrated over the stochastic processes) significantly complicates model fitting. Thus, non-standard computationally intensive procedures based on simulating the marginal likelihood have so far only been proposed. In this paper, we describe an efficient method of implementation by demonstrating how the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood can be computed efficiently. Specifically, by using a property of the multivariate normal distribution and the standard marginal cumulative distribution function identity, we transform the marginal likelihood so that the high dimensional integrations are contained in the cumulative distribution function of a multivariate normal distribution, which can then be efficiently evaluated. Hence, maximum likelihood estimation can be used to obtain parameter estimates and asymptotic standard errors (from the observed information matrix) of model parameters. We describe our proposed efficient implementation procedure for the standard two-part model parameterisation and when it is of interest to directly model the overall marginal mean. The methodology is applied on a psoriatic arthritis data set concerning functional disability.

Maximum likelihood estimation in calibrating a stereo camera setup.

PubMed

Muijtjens, A M; Roos, J M; Arts, T; Hasman, A

1999-02-01

Motion and deformation of the cardiac wall may be measured by following the positions of implanted radiopaque markers in three dimensions, using two x-ray cameras simultaneously. Regularly, calibration of the position measurement system is obtained by registration of the images of a calibration object, containing 10-20 radiopaque markers at known positions. Unfortunately, an accidental change of the position of a camera after calibration requires complete recalibration. Alternatively, redundant information in the measured image positions of stereo pairs can be used for calibration. Thus, a separate calibration procedure can be avoided. In the current study a model is developed that describes the geometry of the camera setup by five dimensionless parameters. Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimates of these parameters were obtained in an error analysis. It is shown that the ML estimates can be found by application of a nonlinear least squares procedure. Compared to the standard unweighted least squares procedure, the ML method resulted in more accurate estimates without noticeable bias. The accuracy of the ML method was investigated in relation to the object aperture. The reconstruction problem appeared well conditioned as long as the object aperture is larger than 0.1 rad. The angle between the two viewing directions appeared to be the parameter that was most likely to cause major inaccuracies in the reconstruction of the 3-D positions of the markers. Hence, attempts to improve the robustness of the method should primarily focus on reduction of the error in this parameter.

The framed Standard Model (II) — A first test against experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Hong-Mo; Tsou, Sheung Tsun

2015-10-01

Apart from the qualitative features described in Paper I (Ref. 1), the renormalization group equation derived for the rotation of the fermion mass matrices are amenable to quantitative study. The equation depends on a coupling and a fudge factor and, on integration, on 3 integration constants. Its application to data analysis, however, requires the input from experiment of the heaviest generation masses mt, mb, mτ, mν3 all of which are known, except for mν3. Together then with the theta-angle in the QCD action, there are in all 7 real unknown parameters. Determining these 7 parameters by fitting to the experimental values of the masses mc, mμ, me, the CKM elements |Vus|, |Vub|, and the neutrino oscillation angle sin2θ 13, one can then calculate and compare with experiment the following 12 other quantities ms, mu/md, |Vud|, |Vcs|, |Vtb|, |Vcd|, |Vcb|, |Vts|, |Vtd|, J, sin22θ 12, sin22θ 23, and the results all agree reasonably well with data, often to within the stringent experimental error now achieved. Counting the predictions not yet measured by experiment, this means that 17 independent parameters of the standard model are now replaced by 7 in the FSM.

A Fast Surrogate-facilitated Data-driven Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with Structural Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.; Ye, M.; Liang, F.

2016-12-01

Due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the real aquifer system, numerical groundwater flow and solute transport models are usually subject to model structural error. During model calibration, the hydrogeological parameters may be overly adjusted to compensate for unknown structural error. This may result in biased predictions when models are used to forecast aquifer response to new forcing. In this study, we extend a fully Bayesian method [Xu and Valocchi, 2015] to calibrate a real-world, regional groundwater flow model. The method uses a data-driven error model to describe model structural error and jointly infers model parameters and structural error. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models. The surrogate models are constructed using machine learning techniques to emulate the response simulated by the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate in the real-world case study that explicitly accounting for model structural error yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived by the classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. In addition, the Bayesian with error model method gives significantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals.

Delivery performance of conventional aircraft by terminal-area, time-based air traffic control: A real-time simulation evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Credeur, Leonard; Houck, Jacob A.; Capron, William R.; Lohr, Gary W.

1990-01-01

A description and results are presented of a study to measure the performance and reaction of airline flight crews, in a full workload DC-9 cockpit, flying in a real-time simulation of an air traffic control (ATC) concept called Traffic Intelligence for the Management of Efficient Runway-scheduling (TIMER). Experimental objectives were to verify earlier fast-time TIMER time-delivery precision results and obtain data for the validation or refinement of existing computer models of pilot/airborne performance. Experimental data indicated a runway threshold, interarrival-time-error standard deviation in the range of 10.4 to 14.1 seconds. Other real-time system performance parameters measured include approach speeds, response time to controller turn instructions, bank angles employed, and ATC controller message delivery-time errors.

Computer algorithm for analyzing and processing borehole strainmeter data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, John O.

2010-01-01

The newly installed Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) strainmeters record signals from tectonic activity, Earth tides, and atmospheric pressure. Important information about tectonic processes may occur at amplitudes at and below tidal strains and pressure loading. If incorrect assumptions are made regarding the background noise in the strain data, then the estimates of tectonic signal amplitudes may be incorrect. Furthermore, the use of simplifying assumptions that data are uncorrelated can lead to incorrect results and pressure loading and tides may not be completely removed from the raw data. Instead, any algorithm used to process strainmeter data must incorporate the strong temporal correlations that are inherent with these data. The technique described here uses least squares but employs data covariance that describes the temporal correlation of strainmeter data. There are several advantages to this method since many parameters are estimated simultaneously. These parameters include: (1) functional terms that describe the underlying error model, (2) the tidal terms, (3) the pressure loading term(s), (4) amplitudes of offsets, either those from earthquakes or from the instrument, (5) rate and changes in rate, and (6) the amplitudes and time constants of either logarithmic or exponential curves that can characterize postseismic deformation or diffusion of fluids near the strainmeter. With the proper error model, realistic estimates of the standard errors of the various parameters are obtained; this is especially critical in determining the statistical significance of a suspected, tectonic strain signal. The program also provides a method of tracking the various adjustments required to process strainmeter data. In addition, the program provides several plots to assist with identifying either tectonic signals or other signals that may need to be removed before any geophysical signal can be identified.

Development of method for experimental determination of wheel-rail contact forces and contact point position by using instrumented wheelset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bižić, Milan B.; Petrović, Dragan Z.; Tomić, Miloš C.; Djinović, Zoran V.

2017-07-01

This paper presents the development of a unique method for experimental determination of wheel-rail contact forces and contact point position by using the instrumented wheelset (IWS). Solutions of key problems in the development of IWS are proposed, such as the determination of optimal locations, layout, number and way of connecting strain gauges as well as the development of an inverse identification algorithm (IIA). The base for the solution of these problems is the wheel model and results of FEM calculations, while IIA is based on the method of blind source separation using independent component analysis. In the first phase, the developed method was tested on a wheel model and a high accuracy was obtained (deviations of parameters obtained with IIA and really applied parameters in the model are less than 2%). In the second phase, experimental tests on the real object or IWS were carried out. The signal-to-noise ratio was identified as the main influential parameter on the measurement accuracy. Тhе obtained results have shown that the developed method enables measurement of vertical and lateral wheel-rail contact forces Q and Y and their ratio Y/Q with estimated errors of less than 10%, while the estimated measurement error of contact point position is less than 15%. At flange contact and higher values of ratio Y/Q or Y force, the measurement errors are reduced, which is extremely important for the reliability and quality of experimental tests of safety against derailment of railway vehicles according to the standards UIC 518 and EN 14363. The obtained results have shown that the proposed method can be successfully applied in solving the problem of high accuracy measurement of wheel-rail contact forces and contact point position using IWS.

The accuracy of eyelid movement parameters for drowsiness detection.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Vanessa E; Jackson, Melinda L; Westlake, Justine; Stevens, Bronwyn; Barnes, Maree; Swann, Philip; Rajaratnam, Shantha M W; Howard, Mark E

2013-12-15

Drowsiness is a major risk factor for motor vehicle and occupational accidents. Real-time objective indicators of drowsiness could potentially identify drowsy individuals with the goal of intervening before an accident occurs. Several ocular measures are promising objective indicators of drowsiness; however, there is a lack of studies evaluating their accuracy for detecting behavioral impairment due to drowsiness in real time. In this study, eye movement parameters were measured during vigilance tasks following restricted sleep and in a rested state (n = 33 participants) at three testing points (n = 71 data points) to compare ocular measures to a gold standard measure of drowsiness (OSLER). The utility of these parameters for detecting drowsiness-related errors was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) (adjusted by clustering for participant) and identification of optimal cutoff levels for identifying frequent drowsiness-related errors (4 missed signals in a minute using OSLER). Their accuracy was tested for detecting increasing frequencies of behavioral lapses on a different task (psychomotor vigilance task [PVT]). Ocular variables which measured the average duration of eyelid closure (inter-event duration [IED]) and the ratio of the amplitude to velocity of eyelid closure were reliable indicators of frequent errors (area under the curve for ROC of 0.73 to 0.83, p < 0.05). IED produced a sensitivity and specificity of 71% and 88% for detecting ≥ 3 lapses (PVT) in a minute and 100% and 86% for ≥ 5 lapses. A composite measure of several eye movement characteristics (Johns Drowsiness Scale) provided sensitivities of 77% and 100% for detecting 3 and ≥ 5 lapses in a minute, with specificities of 85% and 83%, respectively. Ocular measures, particularly those measuring the average duration of episodes of eye closure are promising real-time indicators of drowsiness.

A pharmacometric case study regarding the sensitivity of structural model parameter estimation to error in patient reported dosing times.

PubMed

Knights, Jonathan; Rohatagi, Shashank

2015-12-01

Although there is a body of literature focused on minimizing the effect of dosing inaccuracies on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameter estimation, most of the work centers on missing doses. No attempt has been made to specifically characterize the effect of error in reported dosing times. Additionally, existing work has largely dealt with cases in which the compound of interest is dosed at an interval no less than its terminal half-life. This work provides a case study investigating how error in patient reported dosing times might affect the accuracy of structural model parameter estimation under sparse sampling conditions when the dosing interval is less than the terminal half-life of the compound, and the underlying kinetics are monoexponential. Additional effects due to noncompliance with dosing events are not explored and it is assumed that the structural model and reasonable initial estimates of the model parameters are known. Under the conditions of our simulations, with structural model CV % ranging from ~20 to 60 %, parameter estimation inaccuracy derived from error in reported dosing times was largely controlled around 10 % on average. Given that no observed dosing was included in the design and sparse sampling was utilized, we believe these error results represent a practical ceiling given the variability and parameter estimates for the one-compartment model. The findings suggest additional investigations may be of interest and are noteworthy given the inability of current PK software platforms to accommodate error in dosing times.

Standard Reference Material (SRM 1990) for Single Crystal Diffractometer Alignment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong-Ng, W.; Siegrist, T.; DeTitta, G.T.; Finger, L.W.; Evans, H.T.; Gabe, E.J.; Enright, G.D.; Armstrong, J.T.; Levenson, M.; Cook, L.P.; Hubbard, C.R.

2001-01-01

An international project was successfully completed which involved two major undertakings: (1) a round-robin to demonstrate the viability of the selected standard and (2) the certification of the lattice parameters of the SRM 1990, a Standard Reference Material?? for single crystal diffractometer alignment. This SRM is a set of ???3500 units of Cr-doped Al2O3, or ruby spheres [(0 420.011 mole fraction % Cr (expanded uncertainty)]. The round-robin consisted of determination of lattice parameters of a pair of crystals' the ruby sphere as a standard, and a zeolite reference to serve as an unknown. Fifty pairs of crystals were dispatched from Hauptman-Woodward Medical Research Institute to volunteers in x-ray laboratories world-wide. A total of 45 sets of data was received from 32 laboratories. The mean unit cell parameters of the ruby spheres was found to be a=4.7608 A?? ?? 0.0062 A??, and c=12.9979 A?? ?? 0.020 A?? (95 % intervals of the laboratory means). The source of errors of outlier data was identified. The SRM project involved the certification of lattice parameters using four well-aligned single crystal diffractometers at (Bell Laboratories) Lucent Technologies and at NRC of Canada (39 ruby spheres), the quantification of the Cr content using a combined microprobe and SEM/EDS technique, and the evaluation of the mosaicity of the ruby spheres using a double-crystal spectrometry method. A confirmation of the lattice parameters was also conducted using a Guinier-Ha??gg camera. Systematic corrections of thermal expansion and refraction corrections were applied. These rubies_ are rhombohedral, with space group R3c. The certified mean unit cell parameters are a=4.76080 ?? 0.00029 A??, and c=12 99568 A?? ?? 0.00087 A?? (expanded uncertainty). These certified lattice parameters fall well within the results of those obtained from the international round-robin study. The Guinier-Ha??gg transmission measurements on five samples of powdered rubies (a=4.7610 A?? ?? 0.0013 A??, and c=12.9954 A?? ?? 0.0034 A??) agreed well with the values obtained from the single crystal spheres.

Standard Reference Material (SRM 1990) For Single Crystal Diffractometer Alignment

PubMed Central

Wong-Ng, W.; Siegrist, T.; DeTitta, G. T.; Finger, L. W.; Evans, H. T.; Gabe, E. J.; Enright, G. D.; Armstrong, J. T.; Levenson, M.; Cook, L. P.; Hubbard, C. R.

2001-01-01

An international project was successfully completed which involved two major undertakings: (1) a round-robin to demonstrate the viability of the selected standard and (2) the certification of the lattice parameters of the SRM 1990, a Standard Reference Material® for single crystal diffractometer alignment. This SRM is a set of ≈3500 units of Cr-doped Al2O3, or ruby spheres [(0.420.011 mole fraction % Cr (expanded uncertainty)]. The round-robin consisted of determination of lattice parameters of a pair of crystals: the ruby sphere as a standard, and a zeolite reference to serve as an unknown. Fifty pairs of crystals were dispatched from Hauptman-Woodward Medical Research Institute to volunteers in x-ray laboratories world-wide. A total of 45 sets of data was received from 32 laboratories. The mean unit cell parameters of the ruby spheres was found to be a=4.7608 ű0.0062 Å, and c=12.9979 ű0.020 Å (95 % intervals of the laboratory means). The source of errors of outlier data was identified. The SRM project involved the certification of lattice parameters using four well-aligned single crystal diffractometers at (Bell Laboratories) Lucent Technologies and at NRC of Canada (39 ruby spheres), the quantification of the Cr content using a combined microprobe and SEM/EDS technique, and the evaluation of the mosaicity of the ruby spheres using a double-crystal spectrometry method. A confirmation of the lattice parameters was also conducted using a Guinier-Hägg camera. Systematic corrections of thermal expansion and refraction corrections were applied. These rubies– are rhombohedral, with space group R3¯c. The certified mean unit cell parameters are a=4.76080±0.00029 Å, and c=12.99568 ű0.00087 Å (expanded uncertainty). These certified lattice parameters fall well within the results of those obtained from the international round-robin study. The Guinier-Hägg transmission measurements on five samples of powdered rubies (a=4.7610 ű0.0013 Å, and c = 12.9954 ű0.0034 Å) agreed well with the values obtained from the single crystal spheres. PMID:27500067

Measurement system for 3-D foot coordinates and parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Guozhong; Li, Yunhui; Wang, Boxiong; Shi, Hui; Luo, Xiuzhi

2008-12-01

The 3-D foot-shape measurement system based on laser-line-scanning principle and the model of the measurement system were presented. Errors caused by nonlinearity of CCD cameras and caused by installation can be eliminated by using the global calibration method for CCD cameras, which based on nonlinear coordinate mapping function and the optimized method. A local foot coordinate system is defined with the Pternion and the Acropodion extracted from the boundaries of foot projections. The characteristic points can thus be located and foot parameters be extracted automatically by the local foot coordinate system and the related sections. Foot measurements for about 200 participants were conducted and the measurement results for male and female participants were presented. 3-D foot coordinates and parameters measurement makes it possible to realize custom-made shoe-making and shows great prosperity in shoe design, foot orthopaedic treatment, shoe size standardization, and establishment of a feet database for consumers.

Quantitative analysis of aircraft multispectral-scanner data and mapping of water-quality parameters in the James River in Virginia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. W.; Bahn, G. S.

1977-01-01

Statistical analysis techniques were applied to develop quantitative relationships between in situ river measurements and the remotely sensed data that were obtained over the James River in Virginia on 28 May 1974. The remotely sensed data were collected with a multispectral scanner and with photographs taken from an aircraft platform. Concentration differences among water quality parameters such as suspended sediment, chlorophyll a, and nutrients indicated significant spectral variations. Calibrated equations from the multiple regression analysis were used to develop maps that indicated the quantitative distributions of water quality parameters and the dispersion characteristics of a pollutant plume entering the turbid river system. Results from further analyses that use only three preselected multispectral scanner bands of data indicated that regression coefficients and standard errors of estimate were not appreciably degraded compared with results from the 10-band analysis.

Identification of spilled oils by NIR spectroscopy technology based on KPCA and LSSVM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Ailing; Bi, Weihong

2011-08-01

Oil spills on the sea surface are seen relatively often with the development of the petroleum exploitation and transportation of the sea. Oil spills are great threat to the marine environment and the ecosystem, thus the oil pollution in the ocean becomes an urgent topic in the environmental protection. To develop the oil spill accident treatment program and track the source of the spilled oils, a novel qualitative identification method combined Kernel Principal Component Analysis (KPCA) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) was proposed. The proposed method adapt Fourier transform NIR spectrophotometer to collect the NIR spectral data of simulated gasoline, diesel fuel and kerosene oil spills samples and do some pretreatments to the original spectrum. We use the KPCA algorithm which is an extension of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) using techniques of kernel methods to extract nonlinear features of the preprocessed spectrum. Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a powerful methodology for solving spectral classification tasks in chemometrics. LSSVM are reformulations to the standard SVMs which lead to solving a system of linear equations. So a LSSVM multiclass classification model was designed which using Error Correcting Output Code (ECOC) method borrowing the idea of error correcting codes used for correcting bit errors in transmission channels. The most common and reliable approach to parameter selection is to decide on parameter ranges, and to then do a grid search over the parameter space to find the optimal model parameters. To test the proposed method, 375 spilled oil samples of unknown type were selected to study. The optimal model has the best identification capabilities with the accuracy of 97.8%. Experimental results show that the proposed KPCA plus LSSVM qualitative analysis method of near infrared spectroscopy has good recognition result, which could work as a new method for rapid identification of spilled oils.

The Accuracy of Eyelid Movement Parameters for Drowsiness Detection

PubMed Central

Wilkinson, Vanessa E.; Jackson, Melinda L.; Westlake, Justine; Stevens, Bronwyn; Barnes, Maree; Swann, Philip; Rajaratnam, Shantha M. W.; Howard, Mark E.

2013-01-01

Study Objectives: Drowsiness is a major risk factor for motor vehicle and occupational accidents. Real-time objective indicators of drowsiness could potentially identify drowsy individuals with the goal of intervening before an accident occurs. Several ocular measures are promising objective indicators of drowsiness; however, there is a lack of studies evaluating their accuracy for detecting behavioral impairment due to drowsiness in real time. Methods: In this study, eye movement parameters were measured during vigilance tasks following restricted sleep and in a rested state (n = 33 participants) at three testing points (n = 71 data points) to compare ocular measures to a gold standard measure of drowsiness (OSLER). The utility of these parameters for detecting drowsiness-related errors was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC) (adjusted by clustering for participant) and identification of optimal cutoff levels for identifying frequent drowsiness-related errors (4 missed signals in a minute using OSLER). Their accuracy was tested for detecting increasing frequencies of behavioral lapses on a different task (psychomotor vigilance task [PVT]). Results: Ocular variables which measured the average duration of eyelid closure (inter-event duration [IED]) and the ratio of the amplitude to velocity of eyelid closure were reliable indicators of frequent errors (area under the curve for ROC of 0.73 to 0.83, p < 0.05). IED produced a sensitivity and specificity of 71% and 88% for detecting ≥ 3 lapses (PVT) in a minute and 100% and 86% for ≥ 5 lapses. A composite measure of several eye movement characteristics (Johns Drowsiness Scale) provided sensitivities of 77% and 100% for detecting 3 and ≥ 5 lapses in a minute, with specificities of 85% and 83%, respectively. Conclusions: Ocular measures, particularly those measuring the average duration of episodes of eye closure are promising real-time indicators of drowsiness. Citation: Wilkinson VE; Jackson ML; Westlake J; Stevens B; Barnes M; Swann P; Rajaratnam SMW; Howard ME. The accuracy of eyelid movement parameters for drowsiness detection. J Clin Sleep Med 2013;9(12):1315-1324. PMID:24340294

Achieving mask order processing automation, interoperability and standardization based on P10

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, B.; Filies, O.; Sadran, D.; Tissier, Michel; Albin, D.; Stavroulakis, S.; Voyiatzis, E.

2007-02-01

Last year the MUSCLE (Masks through User's Supply Chain: Leadership by Excellence) project was presented. Here is the project advancement. A key process in mask supply chain management is the exchange of technical information for ordering masks. This process is large, complex, company specific and error prone, and leads to longer cycle times and higher costs due to missing or wrong inputs. Its automation and standardization could produce significant benefits. We need to agree on the standard for mandatory and optional parameters, and also a common way to describe parameters when ordering. A system was created to improve the performance in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) such as cycle time and cost of production. This tool allows us to evaluate and measure the effect of factors, as well as the effect of implementing the improvements of the complete project. Next, a benchmark study and a gap analysis were performed. These studies show the feasibility of standardization, as there is a large overlap in requirements. We see that the SEMI P10 standard needs enhancements. A format supporting the standard is required, and XML offers the ability to describe P10 in a flexible way. Beyond using XML for P10, the semantics of the mask order should also be addressed. A system design and requirements for a reference implementation for a P10 based management system are presented, covering a mechanism for the evolution and for version management and a design for P10 editing and data validation.

Investigation on Effect of Material Hardness in High Speed CNC End Milling Process.

PubMed

Dhandapani, N V; Thangarasu, V S; Sureshkannan, G

2015-01-01

This research paper analyzes the effects of material properties on surface roughness, material removal rate, and tool wear on high speed CNC end milling process with various ferrous and nonferrous materials. The challenge of material specific decision on the process parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, coolant flow rate, cutting tool material, and type of coating for the cutting tool for required quality and quantity of production is addressed. Generally, decision made by the operator on floor is based on suggested values of the tool manufacturer or by trial and error method. This paper describes effect of various parameters on the surface roughness characteristics of the precision machining part. The prediction method suggested is based on various experimental analysis of parameters in different compositions of input conditions which would benefit the industry on standardization of high speed CNC end milling processes. The results show a basis for selection of parameters to get better results of surface roughness values as predicted by the case study results.

Investigation on Effect of Material Hardness in High Speed CNC End Milling Process

PubMed Central

Dhandapani, N. V.; Thangarasu, V. S.; Sureshkannan, G.

2015-01-01

This research paper analyzes the effects of material properties on surface roughness, material removal rate, and tool wear on high speed CNC end milling process with various ferrous and nonferrous materials. The challenge of material specific decision on the process parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, coolant flow rate, cutting tool material, and type of coating for the cutting tool for required quality and quantity of production is addressed. Generally, decision made by the operator on floor is based on suggested values of the tool manufacturer or by trial and error method. This paper describes effect of various parameters on the surface roughness characteristics of the precision machining part. The prediction method suggested is based on various experimental analysis of parameters in different compositions of input conditions which would benefit the industry on standardization of high speed CNC end milling processes. The results show a basis for selection of parameters to get better results of surface roughness values as predicted by the case study results. PMID:26881267

Reduction of medication errors related to sliding scale insulin by the introduction of a standardized order sheet.

PubMed

Harada, Saki; Suzuki, Akio; Nishida, Shohei; Kobayashi, Ryo; Tamai, Sayuri; Kumada, Keisuke; Murakami, Nobuo; Itoh, Yoshinori

2017-06-01

Insulin is frequently used for glycemic control. Medication errors related to insulin are a common problem for medical institutions. Here, we prepared a standardized sliding scale insulin (SSI) order sheet and assessed the effect of its introduction. Observations before and after the introduction of the standardized SSI template were conducted at Gifu University Hospital. The incidence of medication errors, hyperglycemia, and hypoglycemia related to SSI were obtained from the electronic medical records. The introduction of the standardized SSI order sheet significantly reduced the incidence of medication errors related to SSI compared with that prior to its introduction (12/165 [7.3%] vs 4/159 [2.1%], P = .048). However, the incidence of hyperglycemia (≥250 mg/dL) and hypoglycemia (≤50 mg/dL) in patients who received SSI was not significantly different between the 2 groups. The introduction of the standardized SSI order sheet reduced the incidence of medication errors related to SSI. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Criterion to Control Nonlinear Error in the Mixed-Mode Bending Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reeder, James R.

2002-01-01

The mixed-mode bending test ha: been widely used to measure delamination toughness and was recently standardized by ASTM as Standard Test Method D6671-01. This simple test is a combination of the standard Mode I (opening) test and a Mode II (sliding) test. This test uses a unidirectional composite test specimen with an artificial delamination subjected to bending loads to characterize when a delamination will extend. When the displacements become large, the linear theory used to analyze the results of the test yields errors in the calcu1ated toughness values. The current standard places no limit on the specimen loading and therefore test data can be created using the standard that are significantly in error. A method of limiting the error that can be incurred in the calculated toughness values is needed. In this paper, nonlinear models of the MMB test are refined. One of the nonlinear models is then used to develop a simple criterion for prescribing conditions where thc nonlinear error will remain below 5%.

Error vector magnitude based parameter estimation for digital filter back-propagation mitigating SOA distortions in 16-QAM.

PubMed

Amiralizadeh, Siamak; Nguyen, An T; Rusch, Leslie A

2013-08-26

We investigate the performance of digital filter back-propagation (DFBP) using coarse parameter estimation for mitigating SOA nonlinearity in coherent communication systems. We introduce a simple, low overhead method for parameter estimation for DFBP based on error vector magnitude (EVM) as a figure of merit. The bit error rate (BER) penalty achieved with this method has negligible penalty as compared to DFBP with fine parameter estimation. We examine different bias currents for two commercial SOAs used as booster amplifiers in our experiments to find optimum operating points and experimentally validate our method. The coarse parameter DFBP efficiently compensates SOA-induced nonlinearity for both SOA types in 80 km propagation of 16-QAM signal at 22 Gbaud.

Scaled test statistics and robust standard errors for non-normal data in covariance structure analysis: a Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Chou, C P; Bentler, P M; Satorra, A

1991-11-01

Research studying robustness of maximum likelihood (ML) statistics in covariance structure analysis has concluded that test statistics and standard errors are biased under severe non-normality. An estimation procedure known as asymptotic distribution free (ADF), making no distributional assumption, has been suggested to avoid these biases. Corrections to the normal theory statistics to yield more adequate performance have also been proposed. This study compares the performance of a scaled test statistic and robust standard errors for two models under several non-normal conditions and also compares these with the results from ML and ADF methods. Both ML and ADF test statistics performed rather well in one model and considerably worse in the other. In general, the scaled test statistic seemed to behave better than the ML test statistic and the ADF statistic performed the worst. The robust and ADF standard errors yielded more appropriate estimates of sampling variability than the ML standard errors, which were usually downward biased, in both models under most of the non-normal conditions. ML test statistics and standard errors were found to be quite robust to the violation of the normality assumption when data had either symmetric and platykurtic distributions, or non-symmetric and zero kurtotic distributions.

Computer Programs for the Semantic Differential: Further Modifications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawson, Edwin D.; And Others

The original nine programs for semantic differential analysis have been condensed into three programs which have been further refined and augmented. They yield: (1) means, standard deviations, and standard errors for each subscale on each concept; (2) Evaluation, Potency, and Activity (EPA) means, standard deviations, and standard errors; (3)…

The ultimate quantum limits on the accuracy of measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuen, Horace P.

1992-01-01

A quantum generalization of rate-distortion theory from standard communication and information theory is developed for application to determining the ultimate performance limit of measurement systems in physics. For the estimation of a real or a phase parameter, it is shown that the root-mean-square error obtained in a measurement with a single-mode photon level N cannot do better than approximately N exp -1, while approximately exp(-N) may be obtained for multi-mode fields with the same photon level N. Possible ways to achieve the remarkable exponential performance are indicated.

Experimental determination of the navigation error of the 4-D navigation, guidance, and control systems on the NASA B-737 airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knox, C. E.

1978-01-01

Navigation error data from these flights are presented in a format utilizing three independent axes - horizontal, vertical, and time. The navigation position estimate error term and the autopilot flight technical error term are combined to form the total navigation error in each axis. This method of error presentation allows comparisons to be made between other 2-, 3-, or 4-D navigation systems and allows experimental or theoretical determination of the navigation error terms. Position estimate error data are presented with the navigation system position estimate based on dual DME radio updates that are smoothed with inertial velocities, dual DME radio updates that are smoothed with true airspeed and magnetic heading, and inertial velocity updates only. The normal mode of navigation with dual DME updates that are smoothed with inertial velocities resulted in a mean error of 390 m with a standard deviation of 150 m in the horizontal axis; a mean error of 1.5 m low with a standard deviation of less than 11 m in the vertical axis; and a mean error as low as 252 m with a standard deviation of 123 m in the time axis.

An analysis of the least-squares problem for the DSN systematic pointing error model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alvarez, L. S.

1991-01-01

A systematic pointing error model is used to calibrate antennas in the Deep Space Network. The least squares problem is described and analyzed along with the solution methods used to determine the model's parameters. Specifically studied are the rank degeneracy problems resulting from beam pointing error measurement sets that incorporate inadequate sky coverage. A least squares parameter subset selection method is described and its applicability to the systematic error modeling process is demonstrated on Voyager 2 measurement distribution.

Measurements of Time-Dependent CP-Asymmetry Parameters in B Meson Decays to η' K 0 and of Branching Fractions of SU(3) Related Modes with BaBar Experiment at SLAC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Biassoni, Pietro

2009-01-01

In this thesis work we have measured the following upper limits at 90% of confidence level, for B meson decays (in units of 10 -6), using a statistics of 465.0 x 10 6 Bmore » $$\\bar{B}$$ pairs: β(B 0 → ηK 0) < 1.6 β(B 0 → ηη) < 1.4 β(B 0 → η'η') < 2.1 β(B 0 → ηΦ) < 0.52 β(B 0 → ηω) < 1.6 β(B 0 → η'Φ) < 1.2 β(B 0 → η'ω) < 1.7 We have no observation of any decay mode, statistical significance for our measurements is in the range 1.3-3.5 standard deviation. We have a 3.5σ evidence for B → ηω and a 3.1 σ evidence for B → η'ω. The absence of observation of the B 0 → ηK 0 open an issue related to the large difference compared to the charged mode B + → ηK + branching fraction, which is measured to be 3.7 ± 0.4 ± 0.1 [118]. Our results represent substantial improvements of the previous ones [109, 110, 111] and are consistent with theoretical predictions. All these results were presented at Flavor Physics and CP Violation (FPCP) 2008 Conference, that took place in Taipei, Taiwan. They will be soon included into a paper to be submitted to Physical Review D. For time-dependent analysis, we have reconstructed 1820 ± 48 flavor-tagged B 0 → η'K 0 events, using the final BABAR statistic of 467.4 x 10 6 B$$\\bar{B}$$ pairs. We use these events to measure the time-dependent asymmetry parameters S and C. We find S = 0.59 ± 0.08 ± 0.02, and C = -0.06 ± 0.06 ± 0.02. A non-zero value of C would represent a directly CP non-conserving component in B 0 → η'K 0, while S would be equal to sin2β measured in B 0 → J/ΨK s 0 [108], a mixing-decay interference effect, provided the decay is dominated by amplitudes of a single weak phase. The new measured value of S can be considered in agreement with the expectations of the 'Standard Model', inside the experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Inconsistency of our result for S with CP conservation (S = 0) has a significance of 7.1 standard deviations (statistical and systematics included). Our result for the direct-CP violation parameter C is 0.9 standard deviations from zero (statistical and systematics included). Our results are in agreement with the previous ones [18]. Despite the statistics is only 20% larger than the one used in previous measurement, we improved of 20% the error on S and of 14% the error on C. This error is the smaller ever achieved, by both BABAR and Belle, in Time-Dependent CP Violation Parameters measurement is a b → s transition.« less

A Systematic Approach to Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Health Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Garg, Sanjay

2009-01-01

A systematic approach for selecting an optimal suite of sensors for on-board aircraft gas turbine engine health estimation is presented. The methodology optimally chooses the engine sensor suite and the model tuning parameter vector to minimize the Kalman filter mean squared estimation error in the engine s health parameters or other unmeasured engine outputs. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem where there are more unknown system health parameters representing degradation than available sensor measurements. This paper presents the theoretical estimation error equations, and describes the optimization approach that is applied to select the sensors and model tuning parameters to minimize these errors. Two different model tuning parameter vector selection approaches are evaluated: the conventional approach of selecting a subset of health parameters to serve as the tuning parameters, and an alternative approach that selects tuning parameters as a linear combination of all health parameters. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented, and compared to those from an alternative sensor selection strategy.

Systematic errors in regional climate model RegCM over Europe and sensitivity to variations in PBL parameterizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güttler, I.

2012-04-01

Systematic errors in near-surface temperature (T2m), total cloud cover (CLD), shortwave albedo (ALB) and surface net longwave (SNL) and shortwave energy flux (SNS) are detected in simulations of RegCM on 50 km resolution over the European CORDEX domain when forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Simulated T2m is compared to CRU 3.0 and other variables to GEWEX-SRB 3.0 dataset. Most of systematic errors found in SNL and SNS are consistent with errors in T2m, CLD and ALB: they include prevailing negative errors in T2m and positive errors in CLD present during most of the year. Errors in T2m and CLD can be associated with the overestimation of SNL and SNS in most simulations. Impact of errors in albedo are primarily confined to north Africa, where e.g. underestimation of albedo in JJA is consistent with associated surface heating and positive SNS and T2m errors. Sensitivity to the choice of the PBL scheme and various parameters in PBL schemes is examined from an ensemble of 20 simulations. The recently implemented prognostic PBL scheme performs over Europe with a mixed success when compared to standard diagnostic scheme with a general increase of errors in T2m and CLD over all of the domain. Nevertheless, the improvements in T2m can be found in e.g. north-eastern Europe during DJF and western Europe during JJA where substantial warm biases existed in simulations with the diagnostic scheme. The most detectable impact, in terms of the JJA T2m errors over western Europe, comes form the variation in the formulation of mixing length. In order to reduce the above errors an update of the RegCM albedo values and further work in customizing PBL scheme is suggested.

Optimum data weighting and error calibration for estimation of gravitational parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lerch, F. J.

1989-01-01

A new technique was developed for the weighting of data from satellite tracking systems in order to obtain an optimum least squares solution and an error calibration for the solution parameters. Data sets from optical, electronic, and laser systems on 17 satellites in GEM-T1 (Goddard Earth Model, 36x36 spherical harmonic field) were employed toward application of this technique for gravity field parameters. Also, GEM-T2 (31 satellites) was recently computed as a direct application of the method and is summarized here. The method employs subset solutions of the data associated with the complete solution and uses an algorithm to adjust the data weights by requiring the differences of parameters between solutions to agree with their error estimates. With the adjusted weights the process provides for an automatic calibration of the error estimates for the solution parameters. The data weights derived are generally much smaller than corresponding weights obtained from nominal values of observation accuracy or residuals. Independent tests show significant improvement for solutions with optimal weighting as compared to the nominal weighting. The technique is general and may be applied to orbit parameters, station coordinates, or other parameters than the gravity model.

Non-linear matter power spectrum covariance matrix errors and cosmological parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blot, L.; Corasaniti, P. S.; Amendola, L.; Kitching, T. D.

2016-06-01

The covariance of the matter power spectrum is a key element of the analysis of galaxy clustering data. Independent realizations of observational measurements can be used to sample the covariance, nevertheless statistical sampling errors will propagate into the cosmological parameter inference potentially limiting the capabilities of the upcoming generation of galaxy surveys. The impact of these errors as function of the number of realizations has been previously evaluated for Gaussian distributed data. However, non-linearities in the late-time clustering of matter cause departures from Gaussian statistics. Here, we address the impact of non-Gaussian errors on the sample covariance and precision matrix errors using a large ensemble of N-body simulations. In the range of modes where finite volume effects are negligible (0.1 ≲ k [h Mpc-1] ≲ 1.2), we find deviations of the variance of the sample covariance with respect to Gaussian predictions above ˜10 per cent at k > 0.3 h Mpc-1. Over the entire range these reduce to about ˜5 per cent for the precision matrix. Finally, we perform a Fisher analysis to estimate the effect of covariance errors on the cosmological parameter constraints. In particular, assuming Euclid-like survey characteristics we find that a number of independent realizations larger than 5000 is necessary to reduce the contribution of sampling errors to the cosmological parameter uncertainties at subpercent level. We also show that restricting the analysis to large scales k ≲ 0.2 h Mpc-1 results in a considerable loss in constraining power, while using the linear covariance to include smaller scales leads to an underestimation of the errors on the cosmological parameters.

Evaluation of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements of river discharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, S.E.

1996-01-01

The standard deviations of the ADCP measurements ranged from approximately 1 to 6 percent and were generally higher than the measurement errors predicted by error-propagation analysis of ADCP instrument performance. These error-prediction methods assume that the largest component of ADCP discharge measurement error is instrument related. The larger standard deviations indicate that substantial portions of measurement error may be attributable to sources unrelated to ADCP electronics or signal processing and are functions of the field environment.

Nonlinear adaptive control system design with asymptotically stable parameter estimation error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishkov, Rumen; Darmonski, Stanislav

2018-01-01

The paper presents a new general method for nonlinear adaptive system design with asymptotic stability of the parameter estimation error. The advantages of the approach include asymptotic unknown parameter estimation without persistent excitation and capability to directly control the estimates transient response time. The method proposed modifies the basic parameter estimation dynamics designed via a known nonlinear adaptive control approach. The modification is based on the generalised prediction error, a priori constraints with a hierarchical parameter projection algorithm, and the stable data accumulation concepts. The data accumulation principle is the main tool for achieving asymptotic unknown parameter estimation. It relies on the parametric identifiability system property introduced. Necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential stability of the data accumulation dynamics are derived. The approach is applied in a nonlinear adaptive speed tracking vector control of a three-phase induction motor.

Influence of conservative corrections on parameter estimation for extreme-mass-ratio inspirals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerta, E. A.; Gair, Jonathan R.

2009-04-01

We present an improved numerical kludge waveform model for circular, equatorial extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs). The model is based on true Kerr geodesics, augmented by radiative self-force corrections derived from perturbative calculations, and in this paper for the first time we include conservative self-force corrections that we derive by comparison to post-Newtonian results. We present results of a Monte Carlo simulation of parameter estimation errors computed using the Fisher matrix and also assess the theoretical errors that would arise from omitting the conservative correction terms we include here. We present results for three different types of system, namely, the inspirals of black holes, neutron stars, or white dwarfs into a supermassive black hole (SMBH). The analysis shows that for a typical source (a 10M⊙ compact object captured by a 106M⊙ SMBH at a signal to noise ratio of 30) we expect to determine the two masses to within a fractional error of ˜10-4, measure the spin parameter q to ˜10-4.5, and determine the location of the source on the sky and the spin orientation to within 10-3 steradians. We show that, for this kludge model, omitting the conservative corrections leads to a small error over much of the parameter space, i.e., the ratio R of the theoretical model error to the Fisher matrix error is R<1 for all ten parameters in the model. For the few systems with larger errors typically R<3 and hence the conservative corrections can be marginally ignored. In addition, we use our model and first-order self-force results for Schwarzschild black holes to estimate the error that arises from omitting the second-order radiative piece of the self-force. This indicates that it may not be necessary to go beyond first order to recover accurate parameter estimates.

Synchronization error estimation and controller design for delayed Lur'e systems with parameter mismatches.

PubMed

He, Wangli; Qian, Feng; Han, Qing-Long; Cao, Jinde

2012-10-01

This paper investigates the problem of master-slave synchronization of two delayed Lur'e systems in the presence of parameter mismatches. First, by analyzing the corresponding synchronization error system, synchronization with an error level, which is referred to as quasi-synchronization, is established. Some delay-dependent quasi-synchronization criteria are derived. An estimation of the synchronization error bound is given, and an explicit expression of error levels is obtained. Second, sufficient conditions on the existence of feedback controllers under a predetermined error level are provided. The controller gains are obtained by solving a set of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, a delayed Chua's circuit is chosen to illustrate the effectiveness of the derived results.

Increasing point-count duration increases standard error

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, W.P.; Twedt, D.J.; Hamel, P.B.; Ford, R.P.; Wiedenfeld, D.A.; Cooper, R.J.

1998-01-01

We examined data from point counts of varying duration in bottomland forests of west Tennessee and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley to determine if counting interval influenced sampling efficiency. Estimates of standard error increased as point count duration increased both for cumulative number of individuals and species in both locations. Although point counts appear to yield data with standard errors proportional to means, a square root transformation of the data may stabilize the variance. Using long (>10 min) point counts may reduce sample size and increase sampling error, both of which diminish statistical power and thereby the ability to detect meaningful changes in avian populations.

Analysis of S-box in Image Encryption Using Root Mean Square Error Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussain, Iqtadar; Shah, Tariq; Gondal, Muhammad Asif; Mahmood, Hasan

2012-07-01

The use of substitution boxes (S-boxes) in encryption applications has proven to be an effective nonlinear component in creating confusion and randomness. The S-box is evolving and many variants appear in literature, which include advanced encryption standard (AES) S-box, affine power affine (APA) S-box, Skipjack S-box, Gray S-box, Lui J S-box, residue prime number S-box, Xyi S-box, and S8 S-box. These S-boxes have algebraic and statistical properties which distinguish them from each other in terms of encryption strength. In some circumstances, the parameters from algebraic and statistical analysis yield results which do not provide clear evidence in distinguishing an S-box for an application to a particular set of data. In image encryption applications, the use of S-boxes needs special care because the visual analysis and perception of a viewer can sometimes identify artifacts embedded in the image. In addition to existing algebraic and statistical analysis already used for image encryption applications, we propose an application of root mean square error technique, which further elaborates the results and enables the analyst to vividly distinguish between the performances of various S-boxes. While the use of the root mean square error analysis in statistics has proven to be effective in determining the difference in original data and the processed data, its use in image encryption has shown promising results in estimating the strength of the encryption method. In this paper, we show the application of the root mean square error analysis to S-box image encryption. The parameters from this analysis are used in determining the strength of S-boxes

Incorporating measurement error in n = 1 psychological autoregressive modeling

PubMed Central

Schuurman, Noémi K.; Houtveen, Jan H.; Hamaker, Ellen L.

2015-01-01

Measurement error is omnipresent in psychological data. However, the vast majority of applications of autoregressive time series analyses in psychology do not take measurement error into account. Disregarding measurement error when it is present in the data results in a bias of the autoregressive parameters. We discuss two models that take measurement error into account: An autoregressive model with a white noise term (AR+WN), and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. In a simulation study we compare the parameter recovery performance of these models, and compare this performance for both a Bayesian and frequentist approach. We find that overall, the AR+WN model performs better. Furthermore, we find that for realistic (i.e., small) sample sizes, psychological research would benefit from a Bayesian approach in fitting these models. Finally, we illustrate the effect of disregarding measurement error in an AR(1) model by means of an empirical application on mood data in women. We find that, depending on the person, approximately 30–50% of the total variance was due to measurement error, and that disregarding this measurement error results in a substantial underestimation of the autoregressive parameters. PMID:26283988

Adaptive cornea modeling from keratometric data.

PubMed

Martínez-Finkelshtein, Andrei; López, Darío Ramos; Castro, Gracia M; Alió, Jorge L

2011-07-01

To introduce an iterative, multiscale procedure that allows for better reconstruction of the shape of the anterior surface of the cornea from altimetric data collected by a corneal topographer. The report describes, first, an adaptive, multiscale mathematical algorithm for the parsimonious fit of the corneal surface data that adapts the number of functions used in the reconstruction to the conditions of each cornea. The method also implements a dynamic selection of the parameters and the management of noise. Then, several numerical experiments are performed, comparing it with the results obtained by the standard Zernike-based procedure. The numerical experiments showed that the algorithm exhibits steady exponential error decay, independent of the level of aberration of the cornea. The complexity of each anisotropic Gaussian-basis function in the functional representation is the same, but the parameters vary to fit the current scale. This scale is determined only by the residual errors and not by the number of the iteration. Finally, the position and clustering of the centers, as well as the size of the shape parameters, provides additional spatial information about the regions of higher irregularity. The methodology can be used for the real-time reconstruction of both altimetric data and corneal power maps from the data collected by keratoscopes, such as the Placido ring-based topographers, that will be decisive in early detection of corneal diseases such as keratoconus.

On-line vs off-line electrical conductivity characterization. Polycarbonate composites developed with multiwalled carbon nanotubes by compounding technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llorens-Chiralt, R.; Weiss, P.; Mikonsaari, I.

2014-05-01

Material characterization is one of the key steps when conductive polymers are developed. The dispersion of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in a polymeric matrix using melt mixing influence final composite properties. The compounding becomes trial and error using a huge amount of materials, spending time and money to obtain competitive composites. Traditional methods to carry out electrical conductivity characterization include compression and injection molding. Both methods need extra equipments and moulds to obtain standard bars. This study aims to investigate the accuracy of the data obtained from absolute resistance recorded during the melt compounding, using an on-line setup developed by our group, and to correlate these values with off-line characterization and processing parameters (screw/barrel configuration, throughput, screw speed, temperature profile and CNTs percentage). Compounds developed with different percentages of multi walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) and polycarbonate has been characterized during and after extrusion. Measurements, on-line resistance and off-line resistivity, showed parallel response and reproducibility, confirming method validity. The significance of the results obtained stems from the fact that we are able to measure on-line resistance and to change compounding parameters during production to achieve reference values reducing production/testing cost and ensuring material quality. Also, this method removes errors which can be found in test bars development, showing better correlation with compounding parameters.

Moderation analysis using a two-level regression model.

PubMed

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Maxwell, Scott

2014-10-01

Moderation analysis is widely used in social and behavioral research. The most commonly used model for moderation analysis is moderated multiple regression (MMR) in which the explanatory variables of the regression model include product terms, and the model is typically estimated by least squares (LS). This paper argues for a two-level regression model in which the regression coefficients of a criterion variable on predictors are further regressed on moderator variables. An algorithm for estimating the parameters of the two-level model by normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood (NML) is developed. Formulas for the standard errors (SEs) of the parameter estimates are provided and studied. Results indicate that, when heteroscedasticity exists, NML with the two-level model gives more efficient and more accurate parameter estimates than the LS analysis of the MMR model. When error variances are homoscedastic, NML with the two-level model leads to essentially the same results as LS with the MMR model. Most importantly, the two-level regression model permits estimating the percentage of variance of each regression coefficient that is due to moderator variables. When applied to data from General Social Surveys 1991, NML with the two-level model identified a significant moderation effect of race on the regression of job prestige on years of education while LS with the MMR model did not. An R package is also developed and documented to facilitate the application of the two-level model.

Photometric correction for an optical CCD-based system based on the sparsity of an eight-neighborhood gray gradient.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuzhong; Zhang, Yan

2016-07-01

In an optical measurement and analysis system based on a CCD, due to the existence of optical vignetting and natural vignetting, photometric distortion, in which the intensity falls off away from the image center, affects the subsequent processing and measuring precision severely. To deal with this problem, an easy and straightforward method used for photometric distortion correction is presented in this paper. This method introduces a simple polynomial fitting model of the photometric distortion function and employs a particle swarm optimization algorithm to get these model parameters by means of a minimizing eight-neighborhood gray gradient. Compared with conventional calibration methods, this method can obtain the profile information of photometric distortion from only a single common image captured by the optical CCD-based system, with no need for a uniform luminance area source used as a standard reference source and relevant optical and geometric parameters in advance. To illustrate the applicability of this method, numerical simulations and photometric distortions with different lens parameters are evaluated using this method in this paper. Moreover, the application example of temperature field correction for casting billets also demonstrates the effectiveness of this method. The experimental results show that the proposed method is able to achieve the maximum absolute error for vignetting estimation of 0.0765 and the relative error for vignetting estimation from different background images of 3.86%.

Large Uncertainty in Estimating pCO2 From Carbonate Equilibria in Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golub, Malgorzata; Desai, Ankur R.; McKinley, Galen A.; Remucal, Christina K.; Stanley, Emily H.

2017-11-01

Most estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) evasion from freshwaters rely on calculating partial pressure of aquatic CO2 (pCO2) from two out of three CO2-related parameters using carbonate equilibria. However, the pCO2 uncertainty has not been systematically evaluated across multiple lake types and equilibria. We quantified random errors in pH, dissolved inorganic carbon, alkalinity, and temperature from the North Temperate Lakes Long-Term Ecological Research site in four lake groups across a broad gradient of chemical composition. These errors were propagated onto pCO2 calculated from three carbonate equilibria, and for overlapping observations, compared against uncertainties in directly measured pCO2. The empirical random errors in CO2-related parameters were mostly below 2% of their median values. Resulting random pCO2 errors ranged from ±3.7% to ±31.5% of the median depending on alkalinity group and choice of input parameter pairs. Temperature uncertainty had a negligible effect on pCO2. When compared with direct pCO2 measurements, all parameter combinations produced biased pCO2 estimates with less than one third of total uncertainty explained by random pCO2 errors, indicating that systematic uncertainty dominates over random error. Multidecadal trend of pCO2 was difficult to reconstruct from uncertain historical observations of CO2-related parameters. Given poor precision and accuracy of pCO2 estimates derived from virtually any combination of two CO2-related parameters, we recommend direct pCO2 measurements where possible. To achieve consistently robust estimates of CO2 emissions from freshwater components of terrestrial carbon balances, future efforts should focus on improving accuracy and precision of CO2-related parameters (including direct pCO2) measurements and associated pCO2 calculations.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: V and R CCD photometry of visual binaries (Abad+, 2004)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abad, C.; Docobo, J. A.; Lanchares, V.; Lahulla, J. F.; Abelleira, P.; Blanco, J.; Alvarez, C.

2003-11-01

Table 1 gives relevant data for the visual binaries observed. Observations were carried out over a short period of time, therefore we assign the mean epoch (1998.58) for the totality of data. Data of individual stars are presented as average data with errors, by parameter, when various observations have been calculated, as well as the number of observations involved. Errors corresponding to astrometric relative positions between components are always present. For single observations, parameter fitting errors, specially for dx and dy parameters, have been calculated analysing the chi2 test around the minimum. Following the rules for error propagation, theta and rho errors can be estimated. Then, Table 1 shows single observation errors with an additional significant digit. When a star does not have known references, we include it in Table 2, where J2000 position and magnitudes are from the USNO-A2.0 catalogue (Monet et al., 1998, Cat. ). (2 data files).