Transient flow conditions change how we should think about WHPA delineation: a joint frequency and probability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Pretelin (1), Abelardo; Nowak (1), Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Well head protection areas (WHPAs) are frequently used as safety measures for drinking water wells, preventing them from being polluted by restricting land use activities in their proximities. Two sources of uncertainty are involved during delineation: 1) uncertainty in aquifer parameters and 2) time-varying groundwater flow scenarios and their own inherent uncertainties. The former has been studied by Enzenhoefer et al (2012 [1] and 2014 [2]) as probabilistic risk version of WHPA delineation. The latter is frequently neglected and replaced by steady-state assumptions; thereby ignoring time-variant flow conditions triggered either by anthropogenic causes or climatic conditions. In this study we analyze the influence of transient flow considerations in WHPA delineation, following annual seasonality behavior; with transiency represented by four transient conditions: (I) regional groundwater flow direction, (II) strength of the regional hydraulic gradient, (III) natural recharge to the groundwater and (IV) pumping rate. Addressing WHPA delineation in transient flow scenarios is computationally expensive. Thus, we develop an efficient method using a dynamic superposition of steady-state flow solutions coupled with a reversed formulation of advective-dispersive transport based on a Lagrangian particle tracking with continuous injection. This analysis results in a time-frequency map of pixel-wise membership to the well catchment. Additional to transient flow conditions, we recognize two sources of uncertainty, inexact knowledge of transient drivers and parameters. The uncertainties are accommodated through Monte Carlo simulation. With the help of a global sensitivity analysis, we investigate the impact of transiency in WHPA solutions. In particular, we evaluate: (1) Among all considered transients, which ones are the most influential. (2) How influential in WHPA delineation is the transience-related uncertainty compared to aquifer parameter uncertainty. Literature [1] R. Enzenhoefer, W. Nowak, and R. Helmig. Probabilistic exposure risk assessment with advective-dispersive well vulnerability criteria. Advances in Water Resources, 36:121-132, 2012. [2] R. Enzenhoefer, T. Bunk, and W. Nowak. Nine steps to risk-informed wellhead protection and management: a case study. Ground water, 52:161-174, 2014.

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Bader, David; Donner, Leo J.

Model calibration (or tuning) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientificmore » missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. Furthermore, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.« less

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Bader, David; Donner, Leo J.; Elsaesser, Gregory S.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe; Hannay, Cecile; Molod, Andrea; Neale, Richard B.; Saha, Suranjana

2017-09-01

Model calibration (or tuning) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientific missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. However, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.

Practice and philosophy of climate model tuning across six US modeling centers

DOE PAGES

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Bader, David; Donner, Leo J.; ...

2017-09-01

Model calibration (or tuning) is a necessary part of developing and testing coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models regardless of their main scientific purpose. There is an increasing recognition that this process needs to become more transparent for both users of climate model output and other developers. Knowing how and why climate models are tuned and which targets are used is essential to avoiding possible misattributions of skillful predictions to data accommodation and vice versa. This paper describes the approach and practice of model tuning for the six major US climate modeling centers. While details differ among groups in terms of scientificmore » missions, tuning targets, and tunable parameters, there is a core commonality of approaches. Furthermore, practices differ significantly on some key aspects, in particular, in the use of initialized forecast analyses as a tool, the explicit use of the historical transient record, and the use of the present-day radiative imbalance vs. the implied balance in the preindustrial era as a target.« less

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Climate Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-03-01

to each other in dimension- less-parameter space (RoT = 0.81 and Ro_, = 0.79, respectively), the transient is shorter in duration in the 5 - wave amplitude...9.8°C is traversed from the opposite direction (during the time interval 13,090 s t < 14,870 rot), the 5 - wave configuration remains during the...9.2°C produces a slight change in the 5 - wave amplitude vacillation pattern. In particular, the amplitude of wave number 5 decreases , ,^w

A transient stochastic weather generator incorporating climate model uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenis, Vassilis; Pinamonti, Valentina; Hall, Jim W.; Kilsby, Chris G.

2015-11-01

Stochastic weather generators (WGs), which provide long synthetic time series of weather variables such as rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET), have found widespread use in water resources modelling. When conditioned upon the changes in climatic statistics (change factors, CFs) predicted by climate models, WGs provide a useful tool for climate impacts assessment and adaption planning. The latest climate modelling exercises have involved large numbers of global and regional climate models integrations, designed to explore the implications of uncertainties in the climate model formulation and parameter settings: so called 'perturbed physics ensembles' (PPEs). In this paper we show how these climate model uncertainties can be propagated through to impact studies by testing multiple vectors of CFs, each vector derived from a different sample from a PPE. We combine this with a new methodology to parameterise the projected time-evolution of CFs. We demonstrate how, when conditioned upon these time-dependent CFs, an existing, well validated and widely used WG can be used to generate non-stationary simulations of future climate that are consistent with probabilistic outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre's Perturbed Physics Ensemble. The WG enables extensive sampling of natural variability and climate model uncertainty, providing the basis for development of robust water resources management strategies in the context of a non-stationary climate.

What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

2018-02-01

Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

Long-term hydrodynamic response induced by past climatic and geomorphologic forcing: The case of the Paris basin, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jost, A.; Violette, S.; Gonçalvès, J.; Ledoux, E.; Guyomard, Y.; Guillocheau, F.; Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G.; Suc, J.-P.

In the framework of safe underground storage of radioactive waste in low-permeability layers, it is essential to evaluate the mobility of deep groundwaters over timescales of several million years. On these timescales, the environmental evolution of a repository should depend upon a range of natural processes that are primarily driven by climate and geomorphologic variations. In this paper, the response of the Paris basin groundwater system to variations in its hydrodynamic boundary conditions induced by past climate and geodynamic changes over the last five million years is investigated. A three-dimensional transient modelling of the Paris basin aquifer/aquitard system was developed using the code NEWSAM (Ecole des Mines de Paris, ENSMP). The geometry and hydrodynamic parameters of the model originate from a basin model, NEWBAS (ENSMP), built to simulate the geological history of the basin. Geomorphologic evolution is deduced from digital elevation model analysis, which allows to estimate river-valley incision and alpine surrection. Climate forcing results from palaeoclimate modelling experiments using the LMDz atmospheric general circulation model (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace) with a refined spatial resolution, for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and the Middle Pliocene Warmth (˜3 Ma). The water balance is computed by the distributed hydrological model MODSUR (ENSMP). Results about the simulated evolution of piezometric heads in the system in response to the altered boundary conditions are presented, in particular in the vicinity of ANDRA’s Bure potential repository site within the Callovo-Oxfordian argillaceous layer. For the present, the comparison of head patterns between steady state and time dependent simulation shows little differences for aquifer layers close to the surface but suggests a transient state of the current system in the main aquitards of the basin and in the deep aquifers, characterized by abnormally low fluid potentials. The dependence of the boundary-induced transient effects on the hydraulic diffusivity is illustrated by means of a sensitivity study.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective.

PubMed

Zachos, J C; Lohmann, K C; Walker, J C; Wise, S W

1993-03-01

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zachos, J. C.; Lohmann, K. C.; Walker, J. C.; Wise, S. W.

1993-01-01

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.

Transient Simulation of Last Deglaciation with a New Mechanism for B lling-Aller d Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson, David J

2009-01-01

We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Boelling-Alleroed (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition ismore » caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient CO{sub 2} forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.« less

Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trossman, D.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-12-01

We argue that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in the cloud radiative feedback during transient climate change may be due to uncertainty in the ocean circulation perturbation. A suite of climate model simulations in which the ocean circulation, the cloud radiative feedback, or a combination of both are held fixed while CO2 doubles, shows that changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback. Specifically, a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) helps to maintain low cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We propose that the AMOC decline increases the meridional SST gradient, strengthening the storm track, its attendant clouds and the amount of shortwave radiation they reflect back to space. If the results of our model were to scale proportionately in the CMIP5 models, whose AMOC decline ranges from 15 to 60% under RCP8.5, then as much as 70% of the intermodel spread in the cloud radiative feedback and 35% of the spread in the transient climate response could possibly stem from the model representations of AMOC decline.

Application of empirical and dynamical closure methods to simple climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padilla, Lauren Elizabeth

This dissertation applies empirically- and physically-based methods for closure of uncertain parameters and processes to three model systems that lie on the simple end of climate model complexity. Each model isolates one of three sources of closure uncertainty: uncertain observational data, large dimension, and wide ranging length scales. They serve as efficient test systems toward extension of the methods to more realistic climate models. The empirical approach uses the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) to estimate the transient climate sensitivity (TCS) parameter in a globally-averaged energy balance model. Uncertainty in climate forcing and historical temperature make TCS difficult to determine. A range of probabilistic estimates of TCS computed for various assumptions about past forcing and natural variability corroborate ranges reported in the IPCC AR4 found by different means. Also computed are estimates of how quickly uncertainty in TCS may be expected to diminish in the future as additional observations become available. For higher system dimensions the UKF approach may become prohibitively expensive. A modified UKF algorithm is developed in which the error covariance is represented by a reduced-rank approximation, substantially reducing the number of model evaluations required to provide probability densities for unknown parameters. The method estimates the state and parameters of an abstract atmospheric model, known as Lorenz 96, with accuracy close to that of a full-order UKF for 30-60% rank reduction. The physical approach to closure uses the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) to demonstrate closure of small-scale, nonlinear processes that would not be resolved directly in climate models. A one-dimensional, abstract test model with a broad spatial spectrum is developed. The test model couples the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation to a transport equation that includes cloud formation and precipitation-like processes. In the test model, three main sources of MMF error are evaluated independently. Loss of nonlinear multi-scale interactions and periodic boundary conditions in closure models were dominant sources of error. Using a reduced order modeling approach to maximize energy content allowed reduction of the closure model dimension up to 75% without loss in accuracy. MMF and a comparable alternative model peformed equally well compared to direct numerical simulation.

The $10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response.

PubMed

Hope, Chris

2015-11-13

How much is better information about climate change worth? Here, I use PAGE09, a probabilistic integrated assessment model, to find the optimal paths of CO(2) emissions over time and to calculate the value of better information about one aspect of climate change, the transient climate response (TCR). Approximately halving the uncertainty range for TCR has a net present value of about $10.3 trillion (year 2005 US$) if accomplished in time for emissions to be adjusted in 2020, falling to $9.7 trillion if accomplished by 2030. Probabilistic integrated assessment modelling is the only method we have for making estimates like these for the value of better information about the science and impacts of climate change. © 2015 The Author(s).

On the Meaning of Feedback Parameter, Transient Climate Response, and the Greenhouse Effect: Basic Considerations and the Discussion of Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kramm, Gerhard

2010-07-01

In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) the this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric constituents and the exchange of sensible and latent heat between the Earth and the atmosphere into the model of Schneider and Mass the surface temperatures become appreciably lesser than the radiative equilibrium temperature. Moreover, neither the model of Schneider and Mass nor the Dines-type two-layer energy balance model for the Earth-atmosphere system, both contain the planetary radiation balance for an Earth in the absence of an atmosphere as an asymptotic solution, do not provide evidence for the existence of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect if realistic empirical data are used.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

A warmer and wetter solution for early Mars and the challenges with transient warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.

2017-11-01

The climate of early Mars has been hotly debated for decades. Although most investigators believe that the geology indicates the presence of surface water, disagreement has persisted regarding how warm and wet the surface must have been and how long such conditions may have existed. Although the geologic evidence is most easily explained by a persistently warm climate, the perceived difficulty that climate models have in generating warm surface conditions has seeded various models that assume a cold and glaciated early Mars punctuated by transient warming episodes. However, I use a single-column radiative convective climate model to show that it is relatively more straightforward to satisfy warm and relatively non-glaciated early Mars conditions, requiring only ∼1% H2 and 3 bar CO2 or ∼20% H2 and 0.55 bar CO2. In contrast, the reflectivity of surface ice greatly increases the difficulty to transiently warm an initially frozen surface. Surface pressure thresholds required for warm conditions increase ∼10 - 60% for transient warming models, depending on ice cover fraction. No warm solution is possible for ice cover fractions exceeding 40%, 70%, and 85% for mixed snow/ice and 25%, 35%, and 49% for fresher snow/ice at H2 concentrations of 3%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. If high temperatures (298-323 K) were required to produce the observed surface clay amounts on a transiently warm early Mars (Bishop et al), I show that such temperatures would have required surface pressures that exceed available paleopressure constraints for nearly all H2 concentrations considered (1-20%). I then argue that a warm and semi-arid climate remains the simplest and most logical solution to Mars paleoclimate.

Observationally-based Metrics of Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemical Variables are Essential for Evaluating Earth System Model Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2017-12-01

The Southern Ocean is central to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic forcing. Due to its complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes and topography. Understanding how the ocean carries heat and carbon into its interior and how the observed wind changes are affecting this uptake is essential to accurately projecting transient climate sensitivity. Observationally-based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate models. As the community shifts toward Earth system models with explicit carbon simulations, more direct observations of important biogeochemical parameters, like those obtained from the biogeochemically-sensored floats that are part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project, are essential. One goal of future observing systems should be to create observationally-based benchmarks that will lead to reducing uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake.

Robustness of hydrological indicators for transient and stabilized climate states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulange, J. E.; Hanasaki, N.

2017-12-01

By signing the Paris agreement, countries have committed to pursue efforts to limit global warming to +1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Consequently, there is a growing interest in better understanding the impacts of a +1.5°C world. Previous analyses were conducted by considering a time slice period, centered on the year when the global mean temperature (GMT) crosses the +1.5°C threshold (Fig. 1). This time slice period is characterized by a transient state which may influence the reported results (transient climate state). Ideally, analyses should be carried under the condition the GMT is stabilized at +1.5°C (stabilized climate state) but, such targeted simulations do not exist for most GCMs.1A global hydrological model, the H08 model,2 and hydrological indicators (HI) obtained for the transient and stabilized states, are used to answer the following questions: (1) are there quantifiable differences between the HI computed for the transient and stabilized states? (2) can relations be derived between the HI computed for the transient and stabilized states? (3) what are the potential impacts induced by the differences in HI computed for the transient and stabilized states? Signal to noise ratios (S/N) obtained for the transient and stabilized states, in an identical warmer world (+1.7°C), are compared (Fig. 2). The S/N ratio computed for the stabilized state were significantly lower than those of the transient state for most regions and HI. However, at higher latitude, the S/N ratios computed for the two states were similar whereas for medium and low latitudes, the differences were more pronounced. For most regions and HI (except for surface temperature), the S/N ratios of the stabilized state were 10 to 20% weaker than those of the transient state. References:1 Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedlacek, J. & Fischer, E. M. Nature Geosci (2016). 2 Hanasaki, N. et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. (2008).

Exploring uncertainty of Amazon dieback in a perturbed parameter Earth system ensemble.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Booth, Ben B B; Good, Peter

2017-12-01

The future of the Amazon rainforest is unknown due to uncertainties in projected climate change and the response of the forest to this change (forest resiliency). Here, we explore the effect of some uncertainties in climate and land surface processes on the future of the forest, using a perturbed physics ensemble of HadCM3C. This is the first time Amazon forest changes are presented using an ensemble exploring both land vegetation processes and physical climate feedbacks in a fully coupled modelling framework. Under three different emissions scenarios, we measure the change in the forest coverage by the end of the 21st century (the transient response) and make a novel adaptation to a previously used method known as "dry-season resilience" to predict the long-term committed response of the forest, should the state of the climate remain constant past 2100. Our analysis of this ensemble suggests that there will be a high chance of greater forest loss on longer timescales than is realized by 2100, especially for mid-range and low emissions scenarios. In both the transient and predicted committed responses, there is an increasing uncertainty in the outcome of the forest as the strength of the emissions scenarios increases. It is important to note however, that very few of the simulations produce future forest loss of the magnitude previously shown under the standard model configuration. We find that low optimum temperatures for photosynthesis and a high minimum leaf area index needed for the forest to compete for space appear to be precursors for dieback. We then decompose the uncertainty into that associated with future climate change and that associated with forest resiliency, finding that it is important to reduce the uncertainty in both of these if we are to better determine the Amazon's outcome. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

How Are MIS-5e And MIS-11 Different From Other Interglacials And the Future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Q.; Berger, A.

2017-12-01

MIS-5e and MIS-11 appear in many proxy records as the warmest interglacials of the last million years although their astronomical configurations are very different. To investigate how they are different from other interglacials and between themselves, the climate of nine interglacials of the past 800,000 years has been simulated using both snapshot and transient experiments. These simulations allow to investigate the relative contributions of insolation and CO2 to the intensity and duration of each interglacial as well as the differences and similarities between the interglacials. The transient simulations which cover a large range of precession, obliquity and eccentricity allow to investigate the response of different climate variables and different regions to the three astronomical parameters. My presentation will focus on the characteristics of the climate forcing and response of MIS-5e and MIS-11 in comparison with the other intergalcials. Their duration and intensity at global and regional scales will be shown and the causes will be discussed. Unique features in astronomical forcing as well as in regional climate response are found in MIS-5e and MIS-11, which might help to understand why they appear to be among the warmest interglacials. The model results also show that the warm interval of MIS-11 is the longest, confirming its long duration as found in many proxy records. The long duration of MIS-11 is related to a particular combination of eccentricity, obliquity and precession as well as to its long-lasting high CO2 concentration. The differences between the seasonal behaviour of the past interglacials highlight the importance of seasonal climate reconstruction and therefore the necessity to obtain seasonal proxies. The simulated climate of MIS-5e and MIS-11 will also be compared with the climate of today and of the future to investigate the differences and similarities between the past warm conditions and the projected future warming. Part of the results are published in: Yin Q.Z. and Berger A., 2015. Interglacial analogues of the Holocene and its natural near future. Quaternary Science Reviews, 120, 28-46. Yin Q.Z. and Berger A., 2012. Individual contribution of insolation and CO2 to the interglacial climates of the past 800,000 years. Climate Dynamics 38:709-724.

Can we calibrate simultaneously groundwater recharge and aquifer hydrodynamic parameters ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassane Maina, Fadji; Ackerer, Philippe; Bildstein, Olivier

2017-04-01

By groundwater model calibration, we consider here fitting the measured piezometric heads by estimating the hydrodynamic parameters (storage term and hydraulic conductivity) and the recharge. It is traditionally recommended to avoid simultaneous calibration of groundwater recharge and flow parameters because of correlation between recharge and the flow parameters. From a physical point of view, little recharge associated with low hydraulic conductivity can provide very similar piezometric changes than higher recharge and higher hydraulic conductivity. If this correlation is true under steady state conditions, we assume that this correlation is much weaker under transient conditions because recharge varies in time and the parameters do not. Moreover, the recharge is negligible during summer time for many climatic conditions due to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation and transpiration by vegetation cover. We analyze our hypothesis through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in conjunction with the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) methodology. We perform GSA by calculating the Sobol indices, which provide a variance-based 'measure' of the effects of uncertain parameters (storage and hydraulic conductivity) and recharge on the piezometric heads computed by the flow model. The choice of PCE has the following two benefits: (i) it provides the global sensitivity indices in a straightforward manner, and (ii) PCE can serve as a surrogate model for the calibration of parameters. The coefficients of the PCE are computed by probabilistic collocation. We perform the GSA on simplified real conditions coming from an already built groundwater model dedicated to a subdomain of the Upper-Rhine aquifer (geometry, boundary conditions, climatic data). GSA shows that the simultaneous calibration of recharge and flow parameters is possible if the calibration is performed over at least one year. It provides also the valuable information of the sensitivity versus time, depending on the aquifer inertia and climatic conditions. The groundwater levels variations during recharge (increase) are sensitive to the storage coefficient whereas the groundwater levels variations after recharge (decrease) are sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity. The performed model calibration on synthetic data sets shows that the parameters and recharge are estimated quite accurately.

Development of a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Gesch, Dean B.; Carlson, Carl S.

2013-01-01

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to simulate both groundwater flow and solute (salt) transport to evaluate the groundwater system response to sea-level rise. The model was constructed using geologic and spatial information to represent the island geometry, boundaries, and physical properties and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation technique. An initial transient solute-transport simulation was used to establish the freshwater-saltwater boundary for a final calibrated steady-state model of groundwater flow. This model was developed as part of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program to improve capabilities for predicting potential climate-change effects and provide the necessary tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse impacts.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate.

PubMed

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie N; Partin, Judson W; Poore, Richard Z; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-26

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thirumalai, Kaustubh; Quinn, Terrence M.; Okumura, Yuko; Richey, Julie; Partin, Judson W.; Poore, Richard Z.; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo

2018-01-01

Surface-ocean circulation in the northern Atlantic Ocean influences Northern Hemisphere climate. Century-scale circulation variability in the Atlantic Ocean, however, is poorly constrained due to insufficiently-resolved paleoceanographic records. Here we present a replicated reconstruction of sea-surface temperature and salinity from a site sensitive to North Atlantic circulation in the Gulf of Mexico which reveals pronounced centennial-scale variability over the late Holocene. We find significant correlations on these timescales between salinity changes in the Atlantic, a diagnostic parameter of circulation, and widespread precipitation anomalies using three approaches: multiproxy synthesis, observational datasets, and a transient simulation. Our results demonstrate links between centennial changes in northern Atlantic surface-circulation and hydroclimate changes in the adjacent continents over the late Holocene. Notably, our findings reveal that weakened surface-circulation in the Atlantic Ocean was concomitant with well-documented rainfall anomalies in the Western Hemisphere during the Little Ice Age.

Vadose zone controls on damping of climate-induced transient recharge fluxes in U.S. agroecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gurdak, Jason

2017-04-01

Understanding the physical processes in the vadose zone that link climate variability with transient recharge fluxes has particular relevance for the sustainability of groundwater-supported irrigated agriculture and other groundwater-dependent ecosystems. Natural climate variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales has well-documented influence on precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, infiltration flux, and can augment or diminish human stresses on water resources. Here the behavior and damping depth of climate-induced transient water flux in the vadose zone is explored. The damping depth is the depth in the vadose zone that the flux variation damps to 5% of the land surface variation. Steady-state recharge occurs when the damping depth is above the water table, and transient recharge occurs when the damping depth is below the water table. Findings are presented from major agroecosystems of the United States (U.S.), including the High Plains, Central Valley, California Coastal Basin, and Mississippi Embayment aquifer systems. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is used to identify quasi-periodic signals in precipitation and groundwater time series that are coincident with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (6-12 mo cycle), Pacific/North American oscillation (PNA) (<1-4 yr cycle), El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-7 yr cycle), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (3-6 yr cycle), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (15-30 yr cycle), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) (50-70 yr cycle). SSA results indicate that nearly all of the quasi-periodic signals in the precipitation and groundwater levels have a statistically significant lag correlation (95% confidence interval) with the AO, PNA, ENSO, NAO, PDO, and AMO indices. Results from HYDRUS-1D simulations indicate that transient water flux through the vadose zone are controlled by highly nonlinear interactions between mean infiltration flux and infiltration period related to the modes of climate variability and the local soil textures, layering, and depth to the water table. Simulation results for homogeneous profiles generally show that shorter-period climate oscillations, smaller mean fluxes, and finer-grained soil textures generally produce damping depths closer to land surface. Simulation results for layered soil textures indicate more complex responses in the damping depth, including the finding that finer-textured layers in a coarser soil profile generally result in damping depths closer to land surface, while coarser-textured layers in coarser soil profile result in damping depths deeper in the vadose zone. Findings from this study improve understanding of how vadose zone properties influences transient recharge flux and damp climate variability signals in groundwater systems, and have important implications for sustainable management of groundwater resources and coupled agroecosystems under future climate variability and change.

40 CFR Appendix I to Part 92 - Emission Related Locomotive and Engine Parameters and Specifications

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... b. Idle mixture. c. Transient enrichment system calibration. d. Starting enrichment system... shutoff system calibration. d. Starting enrichment system calibration. e. Transient enrichment system... parameters and calibrations. b. Transient enrichment system calibration. c. Air-fuel flow calibration. d...

Unsteady hovering wake parameters identified from dynamic model tests, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hohenemser, K. H.; Crews, S. T.

1977-01-01

The development of a 4-bladed model rotor is reported that can be excited with a simple eccentric mechanism in progressing and regressing modes with either harmonic or transient inputs. Parameter identification methods were applied to the problem of extracting parameters for linear perturbation models, including rotor dynamic inflow effects, from the measured blade flapping responses to transient pitch stirring excitations. These perturbation models were then used to predict blade flapping response to other pitch stirring transient inputs, and rotor wake and blade flapping responses to harmonic inputs. The viability and utility of using parameter identification methods for extracting the perturbation models from transients are demonstrated through these combined analytical and experimental studies.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated North America Vegetation for 21-0 ka Using the TraCE-21ka Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2016-12-01

Transient climate simulations that span multiple millennia (e.g., TraCE-21ka) have become more common as computing power has increased, allowing climate models to complete long simulations in relatively short periods of time (i.e., months). These climate simulations provide information on the potential rate, variability, and spatial expression of past climate changes. They also can be used as input data for other environmental models to simulate transient changes for different components of paleoenvironmental systems, such as vegetation. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide information on a range of ecological processes, describe the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in species distributions, and identify the potential locations of past species refugia. Paleovegetation simulations also can be used to fill in spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation data (e.g., pollen records from lake sediments) and to test hypotheses of past vegetation change. We used the TraCE-21ka transient climate simulation for 21-0 ka from CCSM3, a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The TraCE-21ka simulated temperature, precipitation, and cloud data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of North America. These regridded climate data, along with soil data and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, were used as input to LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate North America vegetation from 21-0 ka. LPJ-GUESS simulates many of the processes controlling the distribution of vegetation (e.g., competition), although some important processes (e.g., dispersal) are not simulated. We evaluate the LPJ-GUESS-simulated vegetation (in the form of plant functional types and biomes) for key time periods and compare the simulated vegetation with observed paleovegetation data, such as data archived in the Neotoma Paleoecology Database. In general, vegetation simulated by LPJ-GUESS reproduces the major North America vegetation patterns (e.g., forest, grassland) with regional areas of disagreement between simulated and observed vegetation. We describe the regions and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of both the simulated climate and simulated vegetation data.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2016-02-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An ˜ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity.

A Transient Initialization Routine of the Community Ice Sheet Model for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Laan, Larissa; van den Broeke, Michiel; Noël, Brice; van de Wal, Roderik

2017-04-01

The Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is to be applied in future simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet under a range of climate change scenarios, determining the sensitivity of the ice sheet to individual climatic forcings. In order to achieve reliable results regarding ice sheet stability and assess the probability of future occurrence of tipping points, a realistic initial ice sheet geometry is essential. The current work describes and evaluates the development of a transient initialization routine, using NGRIP 18O isotope data to create a temperature anomaly field. Based on the latter, surface mass balance components runoff and precipitation are perturbed for the past 125k years. The precipitation and runoff fields originate from a downscaled 1 km resolution version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3 for the period 1961-1990. The result of the initialization routine is a present-day ice sheet with a transient memory of the last glacial-interglacial cycle, which will serve as the future runs' initial condition.

Apparatus Characterizes Transient Voltages in Real Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Medelius, Pedro

2005-01-01

The figure shows a prototype of a relatively inexpensive electronic monitoring apparatus that measures and records selected parameters of lightning-induced transient voltages on communication and power cables. The selected parameters, listed below, are those most relevant to the ability of lightning-induced transients to damage electronic equipment. This apparatus bridges a gap between some traditional transient-voltage recorders that record complete waveforms and other traditional transient-voltage recorders that record only peak values: By recording the most relevant parameters and only those parameters this apparatus yields more useful information than does a traditional peak-value (only) recorder while imposing much smaller data-storage and data-transmission burdens than does a traditional complete-waveform recorder. Also, relative to a complete-waveform recorder, this apparatus is more reliable and can be built at lower cost because it contains fewer electronic components. The transients generated by sources other than lightning tend to have frequency components well below 1 MHz. Most commercial transient recorders can detect and record such transients, but cannot respond rapidly enough for recording lightning-induced transient voltage peaks, which can rise from 10 to 90 percent of maximum amplitude in a fraction of a microsecond. Moreover, commercial transient recorders cannot rearm themselves rapidly enough to respond to the multiple transients that occur within milliseconds of each other on some lightning strikes. One transient recorder, designed for Kennedy Space Center earlier [ Fast Transient-Voltage Recorder (KSC- 11991), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 23, No. 10, page 6a (October 1999)], is capable of sampling transient voltages at peak values up to 50 V in four channels at a rate of 20 MHz. That recorder contains a trigger circuit that continuously compares the amplitudes of the signals on four channels to a preset triggering threshold. When a trigger signal is received, a volatile memory is filled with data for a total time of 200 ms. After the data are transferred to nonvolatile memory, the recorder rearms itself within 400 ms to enable recording of subsequent transients. Unfortunately, the recorded data must be retrieved through a serial communication link. Depending on the amount of data recorded, the memory can be filled before retrieval is completed. Although large amounts of data are recorded and retrieved, only a small part of the information (the selected parameters) is usually required. The present transient-voltage recorder provides the required information, without incurring the overhead associated with the recording, storage, and retrieval of complete transient-waveform data. In operation, this apparatus processes transient voltage waveforms in real time to extract and record the selected parameters. An analog-to-digital converter that operates at a speed of as much as 100 mega-samples per second is used to sample a transient waveform. A real-time comparator and peak detector are implemented by use of fast field-programmable gate arrays.

Estimating soil hydraulic parameters from transient flow experiments in a centrifuge using parameter optimization technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Šimůnek, Jirka; Nimmo, John R.

2005-01-01

A modified version of the Hydrus software package that can directly or inversely simulate water flow in a transient centrifugal field is presented. The inverse solver for parameter estimation of the soil hydraulic parameters is then applied to multirotation transient flow experiments in a centrifuge. Using time‐variable water contents measured at a sequence of several rotation speeds, soil hydraulic properties were successfully estimated by numerical inversion of transient experiments. The inverse method was then evaluated by comparing estimated soil hydraulic properties with those determined independently using an equilibrium analysis. The optimized soil hydraulic properties compared well with those determined using equilibrium analysis and steady state experiment. Multirotation experiments in a centrifuge not only offer significant time savings by accelerating time but also provide significantly more information for the parameter estimation procedure compared to multistep outflow experiments in a gravitational field.

Data Synthesis and Data Assimilation at Global Change Experiments and Fluxnet Toward Improving Land Process Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi

The project was conducted during the period from 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2017 with three major tasks: (1) data synthesis and development of data assimilation (DA) techniques to constrain modeled ecosystem feedback to climate change; (2) applications of DA techniques to improve process models at different scales from ecosystem to regions and the globe; and 3) improvements of modeling soil carbon (C) dynamics by land surface models. During this period, we have synthesized published data from soil incubation experiments (e.g., Chen et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2016; Feng et al., 2016), global change experiments (e.g., Li et al., 2013; Shi etmore » al., 2015, 2016; Liang et al., 2016) and fluxnet (e.g., Niu et al., 2012., Xia et al., 2015; Li et al., 2016). These data have been organized into multiple data products and have been used to identify general mechanisms and estimate parameters for model improvement. We used the data sets that we collected and the DA techniques to improve model performance of both ecosystem models and global land models. The objectives are: 1) to improve model simulations of litter and soil carbon storage (e.g., Schädel et al., 2013; Hararuk and Luo, 2014; Hararuk et al., 2014; Liang et al., 2015); 2) to explore the effects of CO 2, warming and precipitation on ecosystem processes (e.g., van Groenigen et al., 2014; Shi et al., 2015, 2016; Feng et al., 2017); and 3) to estimate parameters variability in different ecosystems (e.g., Li et al., 2016). We developed a traceability framework, which was based on matrix approaches and decomposed the modeled steady-state terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage capacity into four can trace the difference in ecosystem carbon storage capacity among different biomes to four traceable components: net primary productivity (NPP), baseline C residence times, environmental scalars and climate forcing (Xia et al., 2013). With this framework, we can diagnose the differences in modeled carbon storage across ecosystems, biomes, and models. This framework has been successfully implemented by several global land models, such as CABLE (Xia et al., 2013), LPJ-GUESS (Ahlström et al., 2015), CLM (Hararuk et al., 2014; Huang et al., 2017, submitted; Shi et al., 2017, submitted), and ORCHIDEE (Huang et al., 2017, unpublished). Moreover, we have identified the theoretical foundation of the determinants of transient C storage dynamics by adding another term, C storage potential, to the steady-state traceability framework (Luo et al., 2017). The theoretical foundation of transient C storage dynamics has been applied to develop a transient traceability framework to explore the traceable components of transient C storage dynamics responded to the rising CO 2 and climate change in the two contrasting ecosystem types Duke needleleaved forest and Harvard deciduous broadleaved forest (Jiang et al., 2017, in revision). Overall, with the data synthesis, data assimilation techniques, and the steady-state and transient traceability frameworks, we have greatly improved land process models for predicting responses and feedback of terrestrial C dynamics to global change. The matrix approaches has the potential to be applied in theoretical research on nitrogen and phosphorus cycle, and therefore, the coupling of carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus.« less

A Scaling Model for the Anthropocene Climate Variability with Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2017-04-01

The determination of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is a fundamental climate science problem with important policy implications. We use a scaling model, with a limited set of parameters, which can directly calculate the forced globally-average surface air temperature response to anthropogenic and natural forcings. At timescales larger than an inner scale τ, which we determine as the ocean-atmosphere coupling scale at around 2 years, the global system responds, approximately, linearly, so that the variability may be decomposed into additive forced and internal components. The Ruelle response theory extends the classical linear response theory for small perturbations to systems far from equilibrium. Our model thus relates radiative forcings to a forced temperature response by convolution with a suitable Green's function, or climate response function. Motivated by scaling symmetries which allow for long range dependence, we assume a general scaling form, a scaling climate response function (SCRF) which is able to produce a wide range of responses: a power-law truncated at τ. This allows us to analytically calculate the climate sensitivity at different time scales, yielding a one-to-one relation from the transient climate response to the equilibrium climate sensitivity which are estimated, respectively, as 1.6+0.3-0.2K and 2.4+1.3-0.6K at the 90 % confidence level. The model parameters are estimated within a Bayesian framework, with a fractional Gaussian noise error model as the internal variability, from forcing series, instrumental surface temperature datasets and CMIP5 GCMs Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario runs. This observation based model is robust and projections for the coming century are made following the RCP scenario 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, yielding in the year 2100, respectively : 1.5 +0.3)_{-0.2K, 2.3 ± 0.4 K and 4.0 ± 0.6 K at the 90 % confidence level. For comparison, the associated projections from a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble(MME) (32 models) are: 1.7 ± 0.8 K, 2.6 ± 0.8 K and 4.8 ± 1.3 K. Therefore, our projection uncertainty is less than half the structural uncertainty of this CMIP5 MME.

Allowable carbon emissions lowered by multiple climate targets.

PubMed

Steinacher, Marco; Joos, Fortunat; Stocker, Thomas F

2013-07-11

Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity and carbon cycle feedbacks along with a large set of observational constraints. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

Global Warming and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent.

PubMed

Vinnikov; Robock; Stouffer; Walsh; Parkinson; Cavalieri; Mitchell; Garrett; Zakharov

1999-12-03

Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978-98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953-98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.

Earth system responses to cumulative carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.

2015-07-01

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Production and Uses of Multi-Decade Geodetic Earth Science Data Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bock, Y.; Kedar, S.; Moore, A. W.; Fang, P.; Liu, Z.; Sullivan, A.; Argus, D. F.; Jiang, S.; Marshall, S. T.

2017-12-01

The Solid Earth Science ESDR System (SESES) project funded under the NASA MEaSUREs program produces and disseminates mature, long-term, calibrated and validated, GNSS based Earth Science Data Records (ESDRs) that encompass multiple diverse areas of interest in Earth Science, such as tectonic motion, transient slip and earthquake dynamics, as well as meteorology, climate, and hydrology. The ESDRs now span twenty-five years for the earliest stations and today are available for thousands of global and regional stations. Using a unified metadata database and a combination of GNSS solutions generated by two independent analysis centers, the project currently produces four long-term ESDR's: Geodetic Displacement Time Series: Daily, combined, cleaned and filtered, GIPSY and GAMIT long-term time series of continuous GPS station positions (global and regional) in the latest version of ITRF, automatically updated weekly. Geodetic Velocities: Weekly updated velocity field + velocity field histories in various reference frames; compendium of all model parameters including earthquake catalog, coseismic offsets, and postseismic model parameters (exponential or logarithmic). Troposphere Delay Time Series: Long-term time series of troposphere delay (30-min resolution) at geodetic stations, necessarily estimated during position time series production and automatically updated weekly. Seismogeodetic records for historic earthquakes: High-rate broadband displacement and seismic velocity time series combining 1 Hz GPS displacements and 100 Hz accelerometer data for select large earthquakes and collocated cGPS and seismic instruments from regional networks. We present several recent notable examples of the ESDR's usage: A transient slip study that uses the combined position time series to unravel "tremor-less" slow tectonic transient events. Fault geometry determination from geodetic slip rates. Changes in water resources across California's physiographic provinces at a spatial resolution of 75 km. Retrospective study of a southern California summer monsoon event.

Impacts of climatic change on forest structure in the Midwestern Great Lakes region: An integrated gap model and geographical information system (GIS) approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eman, J.L.; Randolph, J.C.; Fan, Weihong

The transient effects of an 80-year climate change scenario on 56 tree species are evaluated within the regional forested landscape matrix of Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. The JABOWA-II forest growth model was integrated with a GIS housing several federally-produced databases which were vital for input file development. A 4km{sup 2} resolution enabled high parameter specificity for each of the 54,345 representative 100m{sup 2} plots. Ten iterations of simulated growth response at each site followed model calibration. Changes in relative regional dominance and shifts in population centroids over two periods (1981-2020 and 2020-2060) indicated that most responses were species-specific.more » Notable among these were the substantial dominance increases of Populus tremuloides and Quercus alba from 1981-2020. Shared response patterns included conifers` centroid shifts to the northwest and overall dominance reductions.« less

CHARACTERIZING STORM HYDROGRAPH RISE AND FALL DYNAMICS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH STREAM STAGE DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Stormflow transients (i.e., hydrograph rise and fall dynamics) have been shown to impact stream biota through impacts on habitat quality and availability. However, little is known about how climate variability and temporal resolution of transient data may color the putative relat...

Subjective estimation of thermal environment in recreational urban spaces—Part 1: investigations in Szeged, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kántor, Noémi; Égerházi, Lilla; Unger, János

2012-11-01

During two investigation periods in transient seasons (14 weekdays in autumn 2009 and 15 weekdays in spring 2010) 967 visitors in two inner city squares of Szeged (Hungary) were asked about their estimation of their thermal environment. Interrelationships of subjective assessments—thermal sensation, perceptions and preferences for individual climate parameters—were analyzed, as well as their connections with the prevailing thermal conditions [air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, mean radiant temperature and physiologically equivalent temperature (PET)]. Thermal sensation showed strong positive relationships with air temperature and solar radiation perception, while wind velocity and air humidity perception had a negative (and weaker) impact. If a parameter was perceived to be low or weak, then it was usually desired to be higher or stronger. This negative correlation was weakest in the case of humidity. Of the basic meteorological parameters, Hungarians are most sensitive to variations in wind. Above PET = 29°C, people usually prefer lower air temperature and less solar radiation. The temperature values perceived by the interviewees correlated stronger with PET, but their means were more similar to air temperature. It was also found that the mean thermal sensation of Hungarians in transient seasons depends on PET according to a quadratic function ( R 2 = 0.912) and, consequently, the thermal comfort ranges of the locals differ from that usually adopted.

Characterization of electrical appliances in transient state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wójcik, Augustyn; Winiecki, Wiesław

2017-08-01

The article contains the study about electrical appliance characterization on the basis of power grid signals. To represent devices, parameters of current and voltage signals recorded during transient states are used. In this paper only transients occurring as a result of switching on devices are considered. The way of data acquisition performed in specialized measurement setup developed for electricity load monitoring is described. The paper presents the method of transients detection and the method of appliance parameters calculation. Using the set of acquired measurement data and appropriate software the set of parameters for several household appliances operating in different operating conditions was processed. Usefulness of appliances characterization in Non-Intrusive Appliance Load Monitoring System (NIALMS) with the use of proposed method is discussed focusing on obtained results.

Analytical solutions to the problem of transient heat transfer in living tissue.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shitzer, A.; Chato, J. C.

1971-01-01

An analytical model of transient heat transfer in living biological tissue is considered. The model includes storage, generation, conduction, and convective transport of heat in the tissue. Solutions for rectangular and cylindrical coordinates are presented and discussed. Transient times for reaching the ?locally fully developed' temperature profile were found to be of the order of 5 to 25 min. These transients are dominated by a geometrical parameters and, to a lesser extent, by a parameter representing the ratio of heat supplied by blood flow to heat conducted in the tissue.

Sequence of events from the onset to the demise of the Last Interglacial: Evaluating strengths and limitations of chronologies used in climatic archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govin, A.; Capron, E.; Tzedakis, P. C.; Verheyden, S.; Ghaleb, B.; Hillaire-Marcel, C.; St-Onge, G.; Stoner, J. S.; Bassinot, F.; Bazin, L.; Blunier, T.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; El Ouahabi, A.; Genty, D.; Gersonde, R.; Jimenez-Amat, P.; Landais, A.; Martrat, B.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Parrenin, F.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Veres, D.; Waelbroeck, C.; Zahn, R.

2015-12-01

The Last Interglacial (LIG) represents an invaluable case study to investigate the response of components of the Earth system to global warming. However, the scarcity of absolute age constraints in most archives leads to extensive use of various stratigraphic alignments to different reference chronologies. This feature sets limitations to the accuracy of the stratigraphic assignment of the climatic sequence of events across the globe during the LIG. Here, we review the strengths and limitations of the methods that are commonly used to date or develop chronologies in various climatic archives for the time span (∼140-100 ka) encompassing the penultimate deglaciation, the LIG and the glacial inception. Climatic hypotheses underlying record alignment strategies and the interpretation of tracers are explicitly described. Quantitative estimates of the associated absolute and relative age uncertainties are provided. Recommendations are subsequently formulated on how best to define absolute and relative chronologies. Future climato-stratigraphic alignments should provide (1) a clear statement of climate hypotheses involved, (2) a detailed understanding of environmental parameters controlling selected tracers and (3) a careful evaluation of the synchronicity of aligned paleoclimatic records. We underscore the need to (1) systematically report quantitative estimates of relative and absolute age uncertainties, (2) assess the coherence of chronologies when comparing different records, and (3) integrate these uncertainties in paleoclimatic interpretations and comparisons with climate simulations. Finally, we provide a sequence of major climatic events with associated age uncertainties for the period 140-105 ka, which should serve as a new benchmark to disentangle mechanisms of the Earth system's response to orbital forcing and evaluate transient climate simulations.

Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum—Crossing a Thermal Threshold in Earth's Climate System?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerhold, T.; Röhl, U.; Donner, B.; Frederichs, T.; Kordesch, W. E. C.; Bohaty, S. M.; Hodell, D. A.; Laskar, J.; Zeebe, R. E.

2018-01-01

Recognizing and deciphering transient global warming events triggered by massive release of carbon into Earth's ocean-atmosphere climate system in the past are important for understanding climate under elevated pCO2 conditions. Here we present new high-resolution geochemical records including benthic foraminiferal stable isotope data with clear evidence of a short-lived (30 kyr) warming event at 41.52 Ma. The event occurs in the late Lutetian within magnetochron C19r and is characterized by a ˜2°C warming of the deep ocean in the southern South Atlantic. The magnitudes of the carbon and oxygen isotope excursions of the Late Lutetian Thermal Maximum are comparable to the H2 event (53.6 Ma) suggesting a similar response of the climate system to carbon cycle perturbations even in an already relatively cooler climate several million years after the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. Coincidence of the event with exceptionally high insolation values in the Northern Hemisphere at 41.52 Ma might indicate that Earth's climate system has a thermal threshold. When this tipping point is crossed, rapid positive feedback mechanisms potentially trigger transient global warming. The orbital configuration in this case could have caused prolonged warm and dry season leading to a massive release of terrestrial carbon into the ocean-atmosphere system initiating environmental change.

Science and policy applicability of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.

2014-12-01

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) provides a quantification of the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions of carbon and global-mean temperature increase. For its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases its assessment on a large body of literature which encompasses multiple lines of evidence. In this session I will look at the literature basis that was available for TCRE at the time of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, providing an easy-to-access introduction into the TCRE concept. Building on this basis and summarizing my own recent work on this, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the use of TCRE for climate policy. While the TCRE concept provides a clear long-term view of what is required to stabilize global-mean temperature increase, I will explore how TCRE uncertainties might pose problems for using TCRE as the only policy guidance in near-term policy decisions.

The Once and Future Battles of Thor and the Midgard Serpent (or the Southern Ocean's Role in Climate)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, J. L.

2017-12-01

Floats deployed by oceanographers are giving us all ringside seats to the epic battle between the wind and the deep ocean around Antarctica which will determine the rate of global atmospheric warming over the next century. The poleward-shift and intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds has been shown to maintain the connection between the surface ocean and the atmosphere with the deep ocean even as the surface ocean warms. This "doorway" allows the vast deep ocean reservoir to play a significant role in the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Coupled climate and earth system models at low and high resolution all simulate poleward-shifted and intensified Southern Hemisphere surface westerly winds when subjected to an atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Comparisons of these simulations reveal how stratification, resolution and eddies affect the transient global climate response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases - and our collective fate.

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza; Gregoire, Lauren; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier; Valdes, Paul; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-04-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will concentrate on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part. Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 9045-9102, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9045-2015, 2015.

Shock-induced thermal wave propagation and response analysis of a viscoelastic thin plate under transient heating loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chenlin; Guo, Huili; Tian, Xiaogeng

2018-04-01

This paper is devoted to the thermal shock analysis for viscoelastic materials under transient heating loads. The governing coupled equations with time-delay parameter and nonlocal scale parameter are derived based on the generalized thermo-viscoelasticity theory. The problem of a thin plate composed of viscoelastic material, subjected to a sudden temperature rise at the boundary plane, is solved by employing Laplace transformation techniques. The transient responses, i.e. temperature, displacement, stresses, heat flux as well as strain, are obtained and discussed. The effects of time-delay and nonlocal scale parameter on the transient responses are analyzed and discussed. It can be observed that: the propagation of thermal wave is dynamically smoothed and changed with the variation of time-delay; while the displacement, strain, and stress can be rapidly reduced by nonlocal scale parameter, which can be viewed as an important indicator for predicting the stiffness softening behavior for viscoelastic materials.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vermeul, Vincent R.; Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.

2001-08-29

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures andmore » parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed.« less

Changes in Seasonal and Extreme Hydrologic Conditions of the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound in an Ensemble Regional Climate Simulation for the Mid-Century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

This study examines an ensemble of climate change projections simulated by a global climate model (GCM) and downscaled with a region climate model (RCM) to 40 km spatial resolution for the western North America. One control and three ensemble future climate simulations were produced by the GCM following a business as usual scenario for greenhouse gases and aerosols emissions from 1995 to 2100. The RCM was used to downscale the GCM control simulation (1995-2015) and each ensemble future GCM climate (2040-2060) simulation. Analyses of the regional climate simulations for the Georgia Basin/Puget Sound showed a warming of 1.5-2oC and statisticallymore » insignificant changes in precipitation by the mid-century. Climate change has large impacts on snowpack (about 50% reduction) but relatively smaller impacts on the total runoff for the basin as a whole. However, climate change can strongly affect small watersheds such as those located in the transient snow zone, causing a higher likelihood of winter flooding as a higher percentage of precipitation falls in the form of rain rather than snow, and reduced streamflow in early summer. In addition, there are large changes in the monthly total runoff above the upper 1% threshold (or flood volume) from October through May, and the December flood volume of the future climate is 60% above the maximum monthly flood volume of the control climate. Uncertainty of the climate change projections, as characterized by the spread among the ensemble future climate simulations, is relatively small for the basin mean snowpack and runoff, but increases in smaller watersheds, especially in the transient snow zone, and associated with extreme events. This emphasizes the importance of characterizing uncertainty through ensemble simulations.« less

A Doppler Transient Model Based on the Laplace Wavelet and Spectrum Correlation Assessment for Locomotive Bearing Fault Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Shen, Changqing; Liu, Fang; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ao; Kong, Fanrang; Tse, Peter W.

2013-01-01

The condition of locomotive bearings, which are essential components in trains, is crucial to train safety. The Doppler effect significantly distorts acoustic signals during high movement speeds, substantially increasing the difficulty of monitoring locomotive bearings online. In this study, a new Doppler transient model based on the acoustic theory and the Laplace wavelet is presented for the identification of fault-related impact intervals embedded in acoustic signals. An envelope spectrum correlation assessment is conducted between the transient model and the real fault signal in the frequency domain to optimize the model parameters. The proposed method can identify the parameters used for simulated transients (periods in simulated transients) from acoustic signals. Thus, localized bearing faults can be detected successfully based on identified parameters, particularly period intervals. The performance of the proposed method is tested on a simulated signal suffering from the Doppler effect. Besides, the proposed method is used to analyze real acoustic signals of locomotive bearings with inner race and outer race faults, respectively. The results confirm that the periods between the transients, which represent locomotive bearing fault characteristics, can be detected successfully. PMID:24253191

A Doppler transient model based on the laplace wavelet and spectrum correlation assessment for locomotive bearing fault diagnosis.

PubMed

Shen, Changqing; Liu, Fang; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Ao; Kong, Fanrang; Tse, Peter W

2013-11-18

The condition of locomotive bearings, which are essential components in trains, is crucial to train safety. The Doppler effect significantly distorts acoustic signals during high movement speeds, substantially increasing the difficulty of monitoring locomotive bearings online. In this study, a new Doppler transient model based on the acoustic theory and the Laplace wavelet is presented for the identification of fault-related impact intervals embedded in acoustic signals. An envelope spectrum correlation assessment is conducted between the transient model and the real fault signal in the frequency domain to optimize the model parameters. The proposed method can identify the parameters used for simulated transients (periods in simulated transients) from acoustic signals. Thus, localized bearing faults can be detected successfully based on identified parameters, particularly period intervals. The performance of the proposed method is tested on a simulated signal suffering from the Doppler effect. Besides, the proposed method is used to analyze real acoustic signals of locomotive bearings with inner race and outer race faults, respectively. The results confirm that the periods between the transients, which represent locomotive bearing fault characteristics, can be detected successfully.

Efficient geostatistical inversion of transient groundwater flow using preconditioned nonlinear conjugate gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Ole; Cirpka, Olaf A.; Bastian, Peter; Ippisch, Olaf

2017-04-01

In the geostatistical inverse problem of subsurface hydrology, continuous hydraulic parameter fields, in most cases hydraulic conductivity, are estimated from measurements of dependent variables, such as hydraulic heads, under the assumption that the parameter fields are autocorrelated random space functions. Upon discretization, the continuous fields become large parameter vectors with O (104 -107) elements. While cokriging-like inversion methods have been shown to be efficient for highly resolved parameter fields when the number of measurements is small, they require the calculation of the sensitivity of each measurement with respect to all parameters, which may become prohibitive with large sets of measured data such as those arising from transient groundwater flow. We present a Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient method for the geostatistical inverse problem, in which a single adjoint equation needs to be solved to obtain the gradient of the objective function. Using the autocovariance matrix of the parameters as preconditioning matrix, expensive multiplications with its inverse can be avoided, and the number of iterations is significantly reduced. We use a randomized spectral decomposition of the posterior covariance matrix of the parameters to perform a linearized uncertainty quantification of the parameter estimate. The feasibility of the method is tested by virtual examples of head observations in steady-state and transient groundwater flow. These synthetic tests demonstrate that transient data can reduce both parameter uncertainty and time spent conducting experiments, while the presented methods are able to handle the resulting large number of measurements.

Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

2013-06-01

The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

Disentangling Greenhouse Warming and Aerosol Cooling to Reveal Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, T.

2015-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Death and revival of chaos.

PubMed

Kaszás, Bálint; Feudel, Ulrike; Tél, Tamás

2016-12-01

We investigate the death and revival of chaos under the impact of a monotonous time-dependent forcing that changes its strength with a non-negligible rate. Starting on a chaotic attractor it is found that the complexity of the dynamics remains very pronounced even when the driving amplitude has decayed to rather small values. When after the death of chaos the strength of the forcing is increased again with the same rate of change, chaos is found to revive but with a different history. This leads to the appearance of a hysteresis in the complexity of the dynamics. To characterize these dynamics, the concept of snapshot attractors is used, and the corresponding ensemble approach proves to be superior to a single trajectory description, that turns out to be nonrepresentative. The death (revival) of chaos is manifested in a drop (jump) of the standard deviation of one of the phase-space coordinates of the ensemble; the details of this chaos-nonchaos transition depend on the ratio of the characteristic times of the amplitude change and of the internal dynamics. It is demonstrated that chaos cannot die out as long as underlying transient chaos is present in the parameter space. As a condition for a "quasistatically slow" switch-off, we derive an inequality which cannot be fulfilled in practice over extended parameter ranges where transient chaos is present. These observations need to be taken into account when discussing the implications of "climate change scenarios" in any nonlinear dynamical system.

Using a Very Large Ensemble to Examine the Role of the Ocean in Recent Warming Trends.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, S. N.; Millar, R.; Otto, A.; Yamazaki, K.; Allen, M. R.

2014-12-01

Results from a very large (~10,000 member) perturbed physics and perturbed initial condition ensemble are presented for the period 1980 to present. A set of model versions that can shadow recent surface and upper ocean observations are identified and the range of uncertainty in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) assessed. This experiment uses the Met Office Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), a coupled model with fully dynamic atmosphere and ocean components as part of the climateprediction.net distributive computing project. Parameters are selected so that the model has good top of atmosphere radiative balance and simulations are run without flux adjustments that "nudge" the climate towards a realistic state, but have an adverse effect on important ocean processes. This ensemble provides scientific insights on the possible role of the AMOC, among other factors, in climate trends, or lack thereof, over the past 20 years. This ensemble is also used to explore how the occurrence of hiatus events of different durations varies for models with different transient climate response (TCR). We show that models with a higher TCR are less likely to produce a 15-year warming hiatus in global surface temperature than those with a lower TCR.

An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierrehumbert, R.

2010-12-01

The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

The effect of flexural isostasy on the response time of orogenic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, J.; Margirier, A.; Guerit, L.

2017-12-01

The concept of orogenic steady-state implies that mountain belts can reach a dynamic balance between uplift and erosion in order to maintain a quasi-constant shape. The final morphology of the mountain will be a function of the relative efficiency between uplift and erosion and is therefore likely to be modulated by climate. However, reaching such a steady-state cannot be instantaneous and there must exist a time lag between the onset of convergence and the full development of the mountain topography. Similarly, when an orogenic system is subject to a marked change in convergence rate or in climatic conditions, it takes a certain time for it to adapt to such a change and develop a new steady-state morphology. It is during these transient phases that the nature and efficiency of the interactions between tectonics and climate are most likely to be constrained by observations and understood. The duration of this transient stage remains, however, poorly constrained and understood. As shown by many authors (Whipple and Tucker, 1999, for example) the rate at which tectonic systems evolve to reach steady-state is likely controlled by climate and rock strength, which both determine the efficiency of erosional processes, and the rate of uplift. Here we show that isostasy also plays a very important role in determining the length of the transient phase and that, depending on the level of isostatic adjustment, which in turn depends on the flexural strength of the underlying lithosphere, isostasy can change the time it takes for an orogenic system to reach steady-state by an order of magnitude, i.,e. from a few millions to a few tens of millions of years. This has very important implications. It may explain why many young orogenic systems display an increase in uplift and erosion rate millions of years after the onset of collision and that, in these situations, such an increase does not require a steady change in tectonic and/or climate conditions/forcing. We also show that this "isostatic buffering" of orogenic response to abrupt changes in tectonic or climatic perturbations can not only lengthen the duration of the transient period, but also dampen the amplitude of the resulting erosional flux. This makes it sometimes difficult to extract the signature of these events from the sedimentary record.

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

2008-11-13

Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

Keno-21: Fundamental Issues in the Design of Geophysical Simulation Experiments and Resource Allocation in Climate Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, L. A.

2001-05-01

Many sources of uncertainty come into play when modelling geophysical systems by simulation. These include uncertainty in the initial condition, uncertainty in model parameter values (and the parameterisations themselves) and error in the model class from which the model(s) was selected. In recent decades, climate simulations have focused resources on reducing the last of these by including more and more details into the model. One can question when this ``kitchen sink'' approach should be complimented with realistic estimates of the impact from other uncertainties noted above. Indeed while the impact of model error can never be fully quantified, as all simulation experiments are interpreted a the rosy scenario which assumes a priori that nothing crucial is missing, the impact of other uncertainties can be quantified at only the cost of computational power; as illustrated, for example, in ensemble climate modelling experiments like Casino-21. This talk illustrates the interplay uncertainties in the context of a trivial nonlinear system and an ensemble of models. The simple systems considered in this small scale experiment, Keno-21, are meant to illustrate issues of experimental design; they are not intended to provide true climate simulations. The use of simulation models with huge numbers of parameters given limited data is usually justified by an appeal to the Laws of Physics: the number of free degrees-of-freedom are many fewer than the number of variables; both variables, parameterisations, and parameter values are constrained by ``the physics" and the resulting simulation yields a realistic reproduction of the entire planet's climate system to within reasonable bounds. But what bounds? exactly? In a single model run under transient forcing scenario, there are good statistical grounds for considering only large space and time averages; most of these reasons vanish if an ensemble of runs are made. Ensemble runs can quantify the (in)ability of a model to provide insight on regional changes: if a model cannot capture regional variations in the data on which the model was constructed (that is, in-sample) claims that out-of-sample predictions of those same regional averages should be used in policy making are vacuous. While motivated by climate modelling and illustrated on a trivial nonlinear system, these issues have implications across the range of geophysical modelling. These include implications for appropriate resource allocation, on the making of science policy, and on the public understanding of science and the role of uncertainty in decision making.

Ca2+ transients in cardiac myocytes measured with high and low affinity Ca2+ indicators.

PubMed Central

Berlin, J R; Konishi, M

1993-01-01

Intracellular calcium ion ([Ca2+]i) transients were measured in voltage-clamped rat cardiac myocytes with fura-2 or furaptra to quantitate rapid changes in [Ca2+]i. Patch electrode solutions contained the K+ salt of fura-2 (50 microM) or furaptra (300 microM). With identical experimental conditions, peak amplitude of stimulated [Ca2+]i transients in furaptra-loaded myocytes was 4- to 6-fold greater than that in fura-2-loaded cells. To determine the reason for this discrepancy, intracellular fura-2 Ca2+ buffering, kinetics of Ca2+ binding, and optical properties were examined. Decreasing cellular fura-2 concentration by lowering electrode fura-2 concentration 5-fold, decreased the difference between the amplitudes of [Ca2+]i transients in fura-2 and furaptra-loaded myocytes by twofold. Thus, fura-2 buffers [Ca2+]i under these conditions; however, Ca2+ buffering is not the only factor that explains the different amplitudes of the [Ca2+]i transients measured with these indicators. From the temporal comparison of the [Ca2+]i transients measured with fura-2 and furaptra, the apparent reverse rate constant for Ca2+ binding of fura-2 was at least 65s-1, much faster than previously reported in skeletal muscle fibers. These binding kinetics do not explain the difference in the size of the [Ca2+]i transients reported by fura-2 and furaptra. Parameters for fura-2 calibration, Rmin, Rmax, and beta, were obtained in salt solutions (in vitro) and in myocytes exposed to the Ca2+ ionophore, 4-Br A23187, in EGTA-buffered solutions (in situ). Calibration of fura-2 fluorescence signals with these in situ parameters yielded [Ca2+]i transients whose peak amplitude was 50-100% larger than those calculated with in vitro parameters. Thus, in vitro calibration of fura-2 fluorescence significantly underestimates the amplitude of the [Ca2+]i transient. These data suggest that the difference in amplitude of [Ca2+]i transients in fura-2 and furaptra-loaded myocytes is due, in part, to Ca2+ buffering by fura-2 and use of in vitro calibration parameters. PMID:8274651

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform: New methodology for extraction of repetitive transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-05-01

Thanks to some recent research works, dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform as new methodology for extraction of repetitive transients is proposed in this short communication to reveal fault signatures hidden in rotating machine. The main idea of the dynamic Bayesian wavelet transform is to iteratively estimate posterior parameters of wavelet transform via artificial observations and dynamic Bayesian inference. First, a prior wavelet parameter distribution can be established by one of many fast detection algorithms, such as the fast kurtogram, the improved kurtogram, the enhanced kurtogram, the sparsogram, the infogram, continuous wavelet transform, discrete wavelet transform, wavelet packets, multiwavelets, empirical wavelet transform, empirical mode decomposition, local mean decomposition, etc.. Second, artificial observations can be constructed based on one of many metrics, such as kurtosis, the sparsity measurement, entropy, approximate entropy, the smoothness index, a synthesized criterion, etc., which are able to quantify repetitive transients. Finally, given artificial observations, the prior wavelet parameter distribution can be posteriorly updated over iterations by using dynamic Bayesian inference. More importantly, the proposed new methodology can be extended to establish the optimal parameters required by many other signal processing methods for extraction of repetitive transients.

Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model

PubMed Central

Ammann, Caspar M.; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century. PMID:17360418

Comparison of methods applied in photoinduced transient spectroscopy to determining the defect center parameters: The correlation procedure and the signal analysis based on inverse Laplace transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suproniuk, M.; Pawłowski, M.; Wierzbowski, M.; Majda-Zdancewicz, E.; Pawłowski, Ma.

2018-04-01

The procedure for determination of trap parameters by photo-induced transient spectroscopy is based on the Arrhenius plot that illustrates a thermal dependence of the emission rate. In this paper, we show that the Arrhenius plot obtained by the correlation method is shifted toward lower temperatures as compared to the one obtained with the inverse Laplace transformation. This shift is caused by the model adequacy error of the correlation method and introduces errors to a calculation procedure of defect center parameters. The effect is exemplified by comparing the results of the determination of trap parameters with both methods based on photocurrent transients for defect centers observed in tin-doped neutron-irradiated silicon crystals and in gallium arsenide grown with the Vertical Gradient Freeze method.

Modeling River Incision Across Active Normal Faults Using the Channel-Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development Model (CHILD): the case of the Central Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attal, M.; Tucker, G.; Whittaker, A.; Cowie, P.; Roberts, G.

2005-12-01

River systems constitute some of the most efficient agents that shape terrestrial landscapes. Fluvial incision rates govern landscape evolution but, due to the variety of processed involved and the difficulty of quantifying them in the field, there is no "universal theory" describing the way rivers incise into bedrock. The last decades have seen the birth of numerous fluvial incision laws associated with models that assign different roles to hydrodynamic variables and to sediments. In order to discriminate between models and constrain their parameters, the transient response of natural river systems to a disturbance (tectonic or climatic) can be used. Indeed, the different models predict different kinds of transient response whereas most models predict a similar power law relationship between slope and drainage area at equilibrium. To this end, a coupled field - modeling study is in progress. The field area consists of the Central Apennines that are subject to active faulting associated with a regional extensional regime. Fault initiation occurred 3 My ago, associated with throw rates of 0.3 +/- 0.2 mm/yr. Due to fault interaction and linkage, the throw rate on the faults located near the center of the fault system increased dramatically 0.7 My ago (up to 2 mm/yr), whereas slip rates on distal faults either decayed or remained approximately constant. The present study uses the landscape evolution model, CHILD, to examine the behavior of rivers draining across these active faults. Distal and central faults are considered in order to track the effects of the fault acceleration on the development of the fluvial network. River characteristics have been measured in the field (e.g. channel width, slope, sediment grain size) and extracted from a 20m DEM (e.g. channel profile, drainage area). We use CHILD to test the ability of alternative incision laws to reproduce observed topography under known tectonic forcing. For each of the fluvial incision models, a Monte-Carlo simulation has been performed, allowing the exploration of a wide range of values for the different parameters relative to tectonic, climate, sediment characteristics, and channel geometry. Observed profiles are consistent with a dominantly wave-like, as opposed to diffusive, transient response to accelerated fault motion. The ability of the different models to reproduce more or less accurately the catchment characteristics, in particular the specific profiles exhibited by the rivers, are discussed in light of our first results.

Understanding Epileptiform After-Discharges as Rhythmic Oscillatory Transients.

PubMed

Baier, Gerold; Taylor, Peter N; Wang, Yujiang

2017-01-01

Electro-cortical activity in patients with epilepsy may show abnormal rhythmic transients in response to stimulation. Even when using the same stimulation parameters in the same patient, wide variability in the duration of transient response has been reported. These transients have long been considered important for the mapping of the excitability levels in the epileptic brain but their dynamic mechanism is still not well understood. To investigate the occurrence of abnormal transients dynamically, we use a thalamo-cortical neural population model of epileptic spike-wave activity and study the interaction between slow and fast subsystems. In a reduced version of the thalamo-cortical model, slow wave oscillations arise from a fold of cycles (FoC) bifurcation. This marks the onset of a region of bistability between a high amplitude oscillatory rhythm and the background state. In vicinity of the bistability in parameter space, the model has excitable dynamics, showing prolonged rhythmic transients in response to suprathreshold pulse stimulation. We analyse the state space geometry of the bistable and excitable states, and find that the rhythmic transient arises when the impending FoC bifurcation deforms the state space and creates an area of locally reduced attraction to the fixed point. This area essentially allows trajectories to dwell there before escaping to the stable steady state, thus creating rhythmic transients. In the full thalamo-cortical model, we find a similar FoC bifurcation structure. Based on the analysis, we propose an explanation of why stimulation induced epileptiform activity may vary between trials, and predict how the variability could be related to ongoing oscillatory background activity. We compare our dynamic mechanism with other mechanisms (such as a slow parameter change) to generate excitable transients, and we discuss the proposed excitability mechanism in the context of stimulation responses in the epileptic cortex.

Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America—Modern data for climatic estimation from vegetation inventories

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2012-01-01

Vegetation inventories (plant taxa present in a vegetation assemblage at a given site) can be used to estimate climatic parameters based on the identification of the range of a given parameter where all taxa in an assemblage overlap ("Mutual Climatic Range"). For the reconstruction of past climates from fossil or subfossil plant assemblages, we assembled the data necessary for such analyses for 530 woody plant taxa and eight climatic parameters in North America. Here we present examples of how these data can be used to obtain paleoclimatic estimates from botanical data in a straightforward, simple, and robust fashion. We also include matrices of climate parameter versus occurrence or nonoccurrence of the individual taxa. These relations are depicted graphically as histograms of the population distributions of the occurrences of a given taxon plotted against a given climatic parameter. This provides a new method for quantification of paleoclimatic parameters from fossil plant assemblages.

Uncertainty of simulated groundwater levels arising from stochastic transient climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley; Dassargues, Alain

2010-05-01

The evaluation of climate change impact on groundwater reserves represents a difficult task because both hydrological and climatic processes are complex and difficult to model. In this study, we present an innovative methodology that combines the use of integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models with advanced stochastic transient climate change scenarios. This methodology is applied to the Geer basin (480 km²) in Belgium, which is intensively exploited to supply the city of Liège (Belgium) with drinking water. The physically-based, spatially-distributed, surface-subsurface flow model has been developed with the finite element model HydroGeoSphere . The simultaneous solution of surface and subsurface flow equations in HydroGeoSphere, as well as the internal calculation of the actual evapotranspiration as a function of the soil moisture at each node of the evaporative zone, enables a better representation of interconnected processes in all domains of the catchment (fully saturated zone, partially saturated zone, surface). Additionally, the use of both surface and subsurface observed data to calibrate the model better constrains the calibration of the different water balance terms. Crucially, in the context of climate change impacts on groundwater resources, the evaluation of groundwater recharge is improved. . This surface-subsurface flow model is combined with advanced climate change scenarios for the Geer basin. Climate change simulations were obtained from six regional climate model (RCM) scenarios assuming the SRES A2 greenhouse gases emission (medium-high) scenario. These RCM scenarios were statistically downscaled using a transient stochastic weather generator technique, combining 'RainSim' and the 'CRU weather generator' for temperature and evapotranspiration time series. This downscaling technique exhibits three advantages compared with the 'delta change' method usually used in groundwater impact studies. (1) Corrections to climate model output are applied not only to the mean of climatic variables, but also across the statistical distributions of these variables. This is important as these distributions are expected to change in the future, with more extreme rainfall events, separated by longer dry periods. (2) The novel approach used in this study can simulate transient climate change from 2010 to 2085, rather than time series representative of a stationary climate for the period 2071-2100. (3) The weather generator is used to generate a large number of equiprobable climate change scenarios for each RCM, representative of the natural variability of the weather. All of these scenarios are applied as input to the Geer basin model to assess the projected impact of climate change on groundwater levels, the uncertainty arising for different RCM projections and the uncertainty linked to natural climatic variability. Using the output results from all scenarios, 95% confidence intervals are calculated for each year and month between 2010 and 2085. The climate change scenarios for the Geer basin model predict hotter and drier summers and warmer and wetter winters. Considering the results of this study, it is very likely that groundwater levels and surface flow rates in the Geer basin will decrease by the end of the century. This is of concern because it also means that groundwater quantities available for abstraction will also decrease. However, this study also shows that the uncertainty of these projections is relatively large compared to the projected changes so that it remains difficult to confidently determine the magnitude of the decrease. The use and combination of an integrated surface - subsurface model and stochastic climate change scenarios has never been used in previous climate change impact studies on groundwater resources. It constitutes an innovation and is an important tool for helping water managers to take decisions.

Estimation and impact assessment of input and parameter uncertainty in predicting groundwater flow with a fully distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touhidul Mustafa, Syed Md.; Nossent, Jiri; Ghysels, Gert; Huysmans, Marijke

2017-04-01

Transient numerical groundwater flow models have been used to understand and forecast groundwater flow systems under anthropogenic and climatic effects, but the reliability of the predictions is strongly influenced by different sources of uncertainty. Hence, researchers in hydrological sciences are developing and applying methods for uncertainty quantification. Nevertheless, spatially distributed flow models pose significant challenges for parameter and spatially distributed input estimation and uncertainty quantification. In this study, we present a general and flexible approach for input and parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of groundwater models. The proposed approach combines a fully distributed groundwater flow model (MODFLOW) with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. To avoid over-parameterization, the uncertainty of the spatially distributed model input has been represented by multipliers. The posterior distributions of these multipliers and the regular model parameters were estimated using DREAM. The proposed methodology has been applied in an overexploited aquifer in Bangladesh where groundwater pumping and recharge data are highly uncertain. The results confirm that input uncertainty does have a considerable effect on the model predictions and parameter distributions. Additionally, our approach also provides a new way to optimize the spatially distributed recharge and pumping data along with the parameter values under uncertain input conditions. It can be concluded from our approach that considering model input uncertainty along with parameter uncertainty is important for obtaining realistic model predictions and a correct estimation of the uncertainty bounds.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

DOE PAGES

Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

2012-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

Neutronic safety parameters and transient analyses for Poland's MARIA research reactor.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bretscher, M. M.; Hanan, N. A.; Matos, J. E.

1999-09-27

Reactor kinetic parameters, reactivity feedback coefficients, and control rod reactivity worths have been calculated for the MARIA Research Reactor (Swierk, Poland) for M6-type fuel assemblies with {sup 235}U enrichments of 80% and 19.7%. Kinetic parameters were evaluated for family-dependent effective delayed neutron fractions, decay constants, and prompt neutron lifetimes and neutron generation times. Reactivity feedback coefficients were determined for fuel Doppler coefficients, coolant (H{sub 2}O) void and temperature coefficients, and for in-core and ex-core beryllium temperature coefficients. Total and differential control rod worths and safety rod worths were calculated for each fuel type. These parameters were used to calculate genericmore » transients for fast and slow reactivity insertions with both HEU and LEU fuels. The analyses show that the HEU and LEU cores have very similar responses to these transients.« less

The Influence of Global Climate Changes on Storm-Tracks of Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Y.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.

2012-12-01

Non-stationary eddies in mid-latitude storm-tracks are an important mechanism of energy, moment and moisture transfer in climate system [1]. Baroclinic eddies bring heavy rains and other hazard weather phenomena in the middle latitudes, play an important role in the global energy and the hydrological cycle. Recently, the increase of a cyclones rate at high latitudes with their frequency decrease in the second half of the 20th century was discovered using reanalysis data [2,3]. However, there is still no common point of view about how storm-track's distribution and intensity will be changed under the climate change influence [4,5]. In our work we investigate a variation of transient eddies general propagation tracks as a result of the global climate change effect. Using global large-scale intermediate complexity model of climate system [6] the numerical experiment was provided for the time period from 850 to 3000 year with a scenario of greenhouse gases influence on climate. From 850 to 2005 this impact was set according to the protocol "Historical simulations" of CMIP5 [7]. For 21th century anthropogenic effects were set according to the most aggressive scenario RCP 8.5 [8]. For the period 22-23 centuries CO2 concentration was on the level of 2100 year, and for 24-30 centuries it returned to pre-industrial value linearly in time of 100 years. Using a filter [9] we defined three variation intervals: low-frequency, medium-frequency and high-frequency. In our work we paid attention to medium-scale waves (i.e. 2-8 days). Two seasons were chosen: winter and summer. For each season we considered average fields of parameters characterizing poleward heat flux at 700 mb and transient eddies variance at 250 mb. Besides of the sensitivity of storm-track dynamic we considered some other features of "warm" climate. The work is partially supported by The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation #(#07.514.11.4044), RFBR grants #10-07-00547, #11-05-01190, and SB RAS projects 4.31.1.5, 4.31.2.7 and 131. Reference: 1. Hoskins, B.J. and P.J. Valdes. On the existence of storm-tracks. J Atmos Sci, 47, pp. 1854-1864, 1990. 2. Lambert, S.J. and J.C. Fyfe. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Climate Dynamics, 26:713-728, 2006. 3. Geng, Q. and M. Sugi. Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Climate, 14:3863-3873, 2001. 4. Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside. Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J Climate, 22:2276-2301, 2009. 5. Brayshaw, D.J., B. Hoskins, and M. Blackburn. The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. part i: land-sea-contrast and orography. J Atmos Sci, 66 pp. 2539-2559, 2009. 6. Fraedrich K., Jansen H., et al. The Planet Simulator: Towards a user friendly model // Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2005. Vol. 14, N. 3. P. 299-304. 7. http://climate.uvic.ca/EMICAR5 8. Meinshausen M., Smith S., et al. The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2500 // Climatic Change.- 2011.- Special Issue on RCPs. 9. Blackmon M.L. A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere // J. Atmos. Sci.1976. V. 33, N. 8. P. 1607-1623.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

The application of neural networks to the SSME startup transient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, Claudia M.; Maul, William A.

1991-01-01

Feedforward neural networks were used to model three parameters during the Space Shuttle Main Engine startup transient. The three parameters were the main combustion chamber pressure, a controlled parameter, the high pressure oxidizer turbine discharge temperature, a redlined parameter, and the high pressure fuel pump discharge pressure, a failure-indicating performance parameter. Network inputs consisted of time windows of data from engine measurements that correlated highly to the modeled parameter. A standard backpropagation algorithm was used to train the feedforward networks on two nominal firings. Each trained network was validated with four additional nominal firings. For all three parameters, the neural networks were able to accurately predict the data in the validation sets as well as the training set.

Transient Oscilliations in Mechanical Systems of Automatic Control with Random Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royev, B.; Vinokur, A.; Kulikov, G.

2018-04-01

Transient oscillations in mechanical systems of automatic control with random parameters is a relevant but insufficiently studied issue. In this paper, a modified spectral method was applied to investigate the problem. The nature of dynamic processes and the phase portraits are analyzed depending on the amplitude and frequency of external influence. It is evident from the obtained results, that the dynamic phenomena occurring in the systems with random parameters under external influence are complex, and their study requires further investigation.

Regional Warming from Aerosol Removal over the United States: Results from a Transient 2010-2050 Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mickley, L. J.; Leibensperger, E. M.; Jacob, D. J.; Rind, D.

2012-01-01

We use a general circulation model (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM 3) to investigate the regional climate response to removal of aerosols over the United States. We perform a pair of transient 2010e2050 climate simulations following a scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, with and without aerosols over the United States and with present-day aerosols elsewhere. We find that removing U.S. aerosol significantly enhances the warming from greenhouse gases in a spatial pattern that strongly correlates with that of the aerosol. Warming is nearly negligible outside the United States, but annual mean surface temperatures increase by 0.4e0.6 K in the eastern United States. Temperatures during summer heat waves in the Northeast rise by as much as 1e2 K due to aerosol removal, driven in part by positive feedbacks involving soil moisture and low cloud cover. Reducing U.S. aerosol sources to achieve air quality objectives could thus have significant unintended regional warming consequences.

Transient traceability analysis of land carbon storage dynamics: procedures and its application to two forest ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, L.; Shi, Z.; Xia, J.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Wang, Y.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is co-determined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (𝜏N), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (𝜏ch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that two different mechanisms leading to the similar trajectory. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Parameter Transient Behavior Analysis on Fault Tolerant Control System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine (Technical Monitor); Shin, Jong-Yeob

2003-01-01

In a fault tolerant control (FTC) system, a parameter varying FTC law is reconfigured based on fault parameters estimated by fault detection and isolation (FDI) modules. FDI modules require some time to detect fault occurrences in aero-vehicle dynamics. This paper illustrates analysis of a FTC system based on estimated fault parameter transient behavior which may include false fault detections during a short time interval. Using Lyapunov function analysis, the upper bound of an induced-L2 norm of the FTC system performance is calculated as a function of a fault detection time and the exponential decay rate of the Lyapunov function.

Transversal homoclinic orbits in a transiently chaotic neural network.

PubMed

Chen, Shyan-Shiou; Shih, Chih-Wen

2002-09-01

We study the existence of snap-back repellers, hence the existence of transversal homoclinic orbits in a discrete-time neural network. Chaotic behaviors for the network system in the sense of Li and Yorke or Marotto can then be concluded. The result is established by analyzing the structures of the system and allocating suitable parameters in constructing the fixed points and their pre-images for the system. The investigation provides a theoretical confirmation on the scenario of transient chaos for the system. All the parameter conditions for the theory can be examined numerically. The numerical ranges for the parameters which yield chaotic dynamics and convergent dynamics provide significant information in the annealing process in solving combinatorial optimization problems using this transiently chaotic neural network. (c) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Observation-based Estimate of Climate Sensitivity with a Scaling Climate Response Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphael; Lovejoy, Shaun

2016-04-01

To properly adress the anthropogenic impacts upon the earth system, an estimate of the climate sensitivity to radiative forcing is essential. Observation-based estimates of climate sensitivity are often limited by their ability to take into account the slower response of the climate system imparted mainly by the large thermal inertia of oceans, they are nevertheless essential to provide an alternative to estimates from global circulation models and increase our confidence in estimates of climate sensitivity by the multiplicity of approaches. It is straightforward to calculate the Effective Climate Sensitivity(EffCS) as the ratio of temperature change to the change in radiative forcing; the result is almost identical to the Transient Climate Response(TCR), but it underestimates the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity(ECS). A study of global mean temperature is thus presented assuming a Scaling Climate Response Function to deterministic radiative forcing. This general form is justified as there exists a scaling symmetry respected by the dynamics, and boundary conditions, over a wide range of scales and it allows for long-range dependencies while retaining only 3 parameter which are estimated empirically. The range of memory is modulated by the scaling exponent H. We can calculate, analytically, a one-to-one relation between the scaling exponent H and the ratio of EffCS to TCR and EffCS to ECS. The scaling exponent of the power law is estimated by a regression of temperature as a function of forcing. We consider for the analysis 4 different datasets of historical global mean temperature and 100 scenario runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 distributed among the 4 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios. We find that the error function for the estimate on historical temperature is very wide and thus, many scaling exponent can be used without meaningful changes in the fit residuals of historical temperatures; their response in the year 2100 on the other hand, is very broad, especially for a low-emission scenario such as RCP 2.6. CMIP5 scenario runs thus allow for a narrower estimate of H which can then be used to estimate the ECS and TCR from the EffCS estimated from the historical data.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J.; Rugh, John; Tomerlin, Jeff

Increased market penetration of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming a number of hurdles, including limited vehicle range and the elevated cost in comparison to conventional vehicles. Climate control loads have a significant impact on range, cutting it by over 50% in both cooling and heating conditions. To minimize the impact of climate control on EDV range, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has partnered with Hyundai America and key industry partners to quantify the performance of thermal load reduction technologies on a Hyundai Sonata plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Technologies that impact vehicle cabin heating in cold weather conditions and cabinmore » cooling in warm weather conditions were evaluated. Tests included thermal transient and steady-state periods for all technologies, including the development of a new test methodology to evaluate the performance of occupant thermal conditioning. Heated surfaces demonstrated significant reductions in energy use from steady-state heating, including a 29%-59% reduction from heated surfaces. Solar control glass packages demonstrated significant reductions in energy use for both transient and steady-state cooling, with up to a 42% reduction in transient and 12.8% reduction in steady-state energy use for the packages evaluated. Technologies that demonstrated significant climate control load reduction were selected for incorporation into a complete thermal load reduction package. The complete package is set to be evaluated in the second phase of the ongoing project.« less

From transient to steady-state response of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2-enrichment and global climate change: conceptual challenges and need for an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2006-01-01

Evidence continues to accumulate that humans are significantly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in unprecedented changes in the global climate system. Experimental manipulations of terrestrial ecosystems and their components have greatly increased our understanding of short-term responses to these global perturbations and have...

Recent climatic events controlling the hydrological and the aquifer dynamics at arid areas: The case of Huasco River watershed, northern Chile.

PubMed

Salas, I; Herrera, C; Luque, J A; Delgado, J; Urrutia, J; Jordan, T

2016-11-15

The investigation assesses the influence of recent climatic events in the water resources and the aquifer dynamics in the Huasco watershed by means of the analysis of precipitation, streamflow and piezometric levels during the last 50years. These hydrological and hydrogeological parameters were evaluated by an exploratory geostatistical analysis (semivariogram) and a spectral analysis (periodogram). Specifically, the hydrological and hydrogeological data analyses are organized according to three sub-basins, the Del Carmen River (Section I), the El Tránsito River (Section II), and the Huasco River (Section III). Data ranges for rainfall are from 1961 to 2015, for streamflow from 1964 to 2015, and for groundwater levels from 1969 to 2014, available from Water Authority of Chile. The analyses allowed the identification of cycles in the hydrological and hydrogeological records. The study area is located in a transient climatic fringe where the convergence of several climatic systems can be identified in the hydrological and hydrogeological records. Results indicate that the nival areas and the small glaciers are especially important to the recharge processes in the Huasco watershed during the spring-summer snowmelting. Water reservoirs in the main aquifer (Section III) and in the Santa Juana dam are highly sensitive to ENSO oscillation climatic patterns. The main climatic events that control this record are the El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, the climatic influence of the westerlies and the SE extratropical moisture were also identified. Spectral analysis identified the presence of a 22.9-yearcycle in piezometric levels of the alluvial aquifer of the Huasco River. This cycle is consistent with the 22-year Hale solar cycle, suggesting the existence of a solar forcing controlling the ENSO oscillations. Moreover, semivariogram and spectral analysis identified a 10.65-yearcycle and a 9.2-yearcycle in groundwater, respectively, which were attributed to the strong mode of ENSO oscillations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Steady-state pattern electroretinogram and short-duration transient visual evoked potentials in glaucomatous and healthy eyes.

PubMed

Amarasekera, Dilru C; Resende, Arthur F; Waisbourd, Michael; Puri, Sanjeev; Moster, Marlene R; Hark, Lisa A; Katz, L Jay; Fudemberg, Scott J; Mantravadi, Anand V

2018-01-01

This study evaluates two rapid electrophysiological glaucoma diagnostic tests that may add a functional perspective to glaucoma diagnosis. This study aimed to determine the ability of two office-based electrophysiological diagnostic tests, steady-state pattern electroretinogram and short-duration transient visual evoked potentials, to discern between glaucomatous and healthy eyes. This is a cross-sectional study in a hospital setting. Forty-one patients with glaucoma and 41 healthy volunteers participated in the study. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram and short-duration transient visual evoked potential testing was conducted in glaucomatous and healthy eyes. A 64-bar-size stimulus with both a low-contrast and high-contrast setting was used to compare steady-state pattern electroretinogram parameters in both groups. A low-contrast and high-contrast checkerboard stimulus was used to measure short-duration transient visual evoked potential parameters in both groups. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram parameters compared were MagnitudeD, MagnitudeD/Magnitude ratio, and the signal-to-noise ratio. Short-duration transient visual evoked potential parameters compared were amplitude and latency. MagnitudeD was significantly lower in glaucoma patients when using a low-contrast (P = 0.001) and high-contrast (P < 0.001) 64-bar-size steady-state pattern electroretinogram stimulus. MagnitudeD/Magnitude ratio and SNR were significantly lower in the glaucoma group when using a high-contrast 64-bar-size stimulus (P < 0.001 and P = 0.010, respectively). Short-duration transient visual evoked potential amplitude and latency were not significantly different between the two groups. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram was effectively able to discern between glaucomatous and healthy eyes. Steady-state pattern electroretinogram may thus have a role as a clinically useful electrophysiological diagnostic tool. © 2017 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

Equilibrium and Effective Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugenstein, M.; Bloch-Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, as well as the real world, take thousands of years to equilibrate to CO2 induced radiative perturbations. Equilibrium climate sensitivity - a fully equilibrated 2xCO2 perturbation - has been used for decades as a benchmark in model intercomparisons, as a test of our understanding of the climate system and paleo proxies, and to predict or project future climate change. Computational costs and limited time lead to the widespread practice of extrapolating equilibrium conditions from just a few decades of coupled simulations. The most common workaround is the "effective climate sensitivity" - defined through an extrapolation of a 150 year abrupt2xCO2 simulation, including the assumption of linear climate feedbacks. The definitions of effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity are often mixed up and used equivalently, and it is argued that "transient climate sensitivity" is the more relevant measure for predicting the next decades. We present an ongoing model intercomparison, the "LongRunMIP", to study century and millennia time scales of AOGCM equilibration and the linearity assumptions around feedback analysis. As a true ensemble of opportunity, there is no protocol and the only condition to participate is a coupled model simulation of any stabilizing scenario simulating more than 1000 years. Many of the submitted simulations took several years to conduct. As of July 2016 the contribution comprises 27 scenario simulations of 13 different models originating from 7 modeling centers, each between 1000 and 6000 years. To contribute, please contact the authors as soon as possible We present preliminary results, discussing differences between effective and equilibrium climate sensitivity, the usefulness of transient climate sensitivity, extrapolation methods, and the state of the coupled climate system close to equilibrium. Caption for the Figure below: Evolution of temperature anomaly and radiative imbalance of 22 simulations with 12 models (color indicates the model). 20 year moving average.

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present (version 1) - PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier M.; Valdes, Paul J.; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-07-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the climate change events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 000 years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core experiment over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time-varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, and we make recommendations for prescribing ice meltwater (or not) in the Core experiment. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate more thoroughly the effect of ice meltwater on climate system evolution, and to examine the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will target shorter durations around specific events in order to understand them in more detail and allow for the more computationally expensive models to take part.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections.

PubMed

Bardeen, Charles G; Garcia, Rolando R; Toon, Owen B; Conley, Andrew J

2017-09-05

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth's surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, Charles G.; Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-09-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition.

The suitability of a simplified isotope-balance approach to quantify transient groundwater-lake interactions over a decade with climatic extremes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sacks, Laura A.; Lee, Terrie M.; Swancar, Amy

2013-01-01

Groundwater inflow to a subtropical seepage lake was estimated using a transient isotope-balance approach for a decade (2001–2011) with wet and dry climatic extremes. Lake water δ18O ranged from +0.80 to +3.48 ‰, reflecting the 4 m range in stage. The transient δ18O analysis discerned large differences in semiannual groundwater inflow, and the overall patterns of low and high groundwater inflow were consistent with an independent water budget. Despite simplifying assumptions that the isotopic composition of precipitation (δP), groundwater inflow, and atmospheric moisture (δA) were constant, groundwater inflow was within the water-budget error for 12 of the 19 semiannual calculation periods. The magnitude of inflow was over or under predicted during periods of climatic extreme. During periods of high net precipitation from tropical cyclones and El Niño conditions, δP values were considerably more depleted in 18O than assumed. During an extreme dry period, δA values were likely more enriched in 18O than assumed due to the influence of local lake evaporate. Isotope balance results were most sensitive to uncertainties in relative humidity, evaporation, and δ18O of lake water, which can limit precise quantification of groundwater inflow. Nonetheless, the consistency between isotope-balance and water-budget results indicates that this is a viable approach for lakes in similar settings, allowing the magnitude of groundwater inflow to be estimated over less-than-annual time periods. Because lake-water δ18O is a good indicator of climatic conditions, these data could be useful in ground-truthing paleoclimatic reconstructions using isotopic data from lake cores in similar settings.

On transient climate change at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary due to atmospheric soot injections

PubMed Central

Garcia, Rolando R.; Toon, Owen B.; Conley, Andrew J.

2017-01-01

Climate simulations that consider injection into the atmosphere of 15,000 Tg of soot, the amount estimated to be present at the Cretaceous−Paleogene boundary, produce what might have been one of the largest episodes of transient climate change in Earth history. The observed soot is believed to originate from global wildfires ignited after the impact of a 10-km-diameter asteroid on the Yucatán Peninsula 66 million y ago. Following injection into the atmosphere, the soot is heated by sunlight and lofted to great heights, resulting in a worldwide soot aerosol layer that lasts several years. As a result, little or no sunlight reaches the surface for over a year, such that photosynthesis is impossible and continents and oceans cool by as much as 28 °C and 11 °C, respectively. The absorption of light by the soot heats the upper atmosphere by hundreds of degrees. These high temperatures, together with a massive injection of water, which is a source of odd-hydrogen radicals, destroy the stratospheric ozone layer, such that Earth’s surface receives high doses of UV radiation for about a year once the soot clears, five years after the impact. Temperatures remain above freezing in the oceans, coastal areas, and parts of the Tropics, but photosynthesis is severely inhibited for the first 1 y to 2 y, and freezing temperatures persist at middle latitudes for 3 y to 4 y. Refugia from these effects would have been very limited. The transient climate perturbation ends abruptly as the stratosphere cools and becomes supersaturated, causing rapid dehydration that removes all remaining soot via wet deposition. PMID:28827324

Transient chaos in the Lorenz-type map with periodic forcing.

PubMed

Maslennikov, Oleg V; Nekorkin, Vladimir I; Kurths, Jürgen

2018-03-01

We consider a case study of perturbing a system with a boundary crisis of a chaotic attractor by periodic forcing. In the static case, the system exhibits persistent chaos below the critical value of the control parameter but transient chaos above the critical value. We discuss what happens to the system and particularly to the transient chaotic dynamics if the control parameter periodically oscillates. We find a non-exponential decaying behavior of the survival probability function, study the impact of the forcing frequency and amplitude on the escape rate, analyze the phase-space image of the observed dynamics, and investigate the influence of initial conditions.

Transient chaos in the Lorenz-type map with periodic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslennikov, Oleg V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

2018-03-01

We consider a case study of perturbing a system with a boundary crisis of a chaotic attractor by periodic forcing. In the static case, the system exhibits persistent chaos below the critical value of the control parameter but transient chaos above the critical value. We discuss what happens to the system and particularly to the transient chaotic dynamics if the control parameter periodically oscillates. We find a non-exponential decaying behavior of the survival probability function, study the impact of the forcing frequency and amplitude on the escape rate, analyze the phase-space image of the observed dynamics, and investigate the influence of initial conditions.

Predictive modeling of transient storage and nutrient uptake: Implications for stream restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, Ben L.; Hondzo, Miki; Harvey, Judson W.

2010-01-01

This study examined two key aspects of reactive transport modeling for stream restoration purposes: the accuracy of the nutrient spiraling and transient storage models for quantifying reach-scale nutrient uptake, and the ability to quantify transport parameters using measurements and scaling techniques in order to improve upon traditional conservative tracer fitting methods. Nitrate (NO3–) uptake rates inferred using the nutrient spiraling model underestimated the total NO3– mass loss by 82%, which was attributed to the exclusion of dispersion and transient storage. The transient storage model was more accurate with respect to the NO3– mass loss (±20%) and also demonstrated that uptake in the main channel was more significant than in storage zones. Conservative tracer fitting was unable to produce transport parameter estimates for a riffle-pool transition of the study reach, while forward modeling of solute transport using measured/scaled transport parameters matched conservative tracer breakthrough curves for all reaches. Additionally, solute exchange between the main channel and embayment surface storage zones was quantified using first-order theory. These results demonstrate that it is vital to account for transient storage in quantifying nutrient uptake, and the continued development of measurement/scaling techniques is needed for reactive transport modeling of streams with complex hydraulic and geomorphic conditions.

Transients in the synchronization of asymmetrically coupled oscillator arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantos, C. E.; Hammond, D. K.; Veerman, J. J. P.

2016-09-01

We consider the transient behavior of a large linear array of coupled linear damped harmonic oscillators following perturbation of a single element. Our work is motivated by modeling the behavior of flocks of autonomous vehicles. We first state a number of conjectures that allow us to derive an explicit characterization of the transients, within a certain parameter regime Ω. As corollaries we show that minimizing the transients requires considering non-symmetric coupling, and that within Ω the computed linear growth in N of the transients is independent of (reasonable) boundary conditions.

Regional business cycle synchronization through expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Onozaki, Tamotsu; Yanagita, Tatsuo; Kaizoji, Taisei; Toyabe, Kazutaka

2007-09-01

This paper provides an example in which regional business cycles may synchronize via producers’ expectations, even though there is no interregional trade, by means of a system of globally coupled, noninvertible maps. We concentrate on the dependence of the dynamics on a parameter η which denotes the inverse of price elasticity of demand. Simulation results show that several phases (the short transient, the complete asynchronous, the long transient and the intermediate transient) appear one after another as η increases. In the long transient phase, the intermittent clustering process with a long chaotic transient appears repeatedly.

The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-09-01

Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice-albedo feedback predominates the surface-height-temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength.

A theory of post-stall transients in multistage axial compression systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, F. K.; Greitzer, E. M.

1985-01-01

A theory is presented for post stall transients in multistage axial compressors. The theory leads to a set of coupled first-order ordinary differential equations capable of describing the growth and possible decay of a rotating-stall cell during a compressor mass-flow transient. These changing flow features are shown to have a significant effect on the instantaneous compressor pumping characteristic during unsteady operation, and henace on the overall system behavior. It is also found from the theory that the ultimate mode of system response, stable rotating stall or surge, depends not only on the B parameter but also on other parameters, such as the compressor length-to-diameter ratio. Small values of this latter quantity tend to favor the occurrence of surge, as do large values of B. A limited parametric study is carried out to show the impact of the different system features on transient behavior. Based on analytical and numerical results, several specific topics are suggested for future research on post-stall transients.

Transient photoresponse in amorphous In-Ga-Zn-O thin films under stretched exponential analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Jiajun; Adler, Alexander U.; Mason, Thomas O.; Bruce Buchholz, D.; Chang, R. P. H.; Grayson, M.

2013-04-01

We investigated transient photoresponse and Hall effect in amorphous In-Ga-Zn-O thin films and observed a stretched exponential response which allows characterization of the activation energy spectrum with only three fit parameters. Measurements of as-grown films and 350 K annealed films were conducted at room temperature by recording conductivity, carrier density, and mobility over day-long time scales, both under illumination and in the dark. Hall measurements verify approximately constant mobility, even as the photoinduced carrier density changes by orders of magnitude. The transient photoconductivity data fit well to a stretched exponential during both illumination and dark relaxation, but with slower response in the dark. The inverse Laplace transforms of these stretched exponentials yield the density of activation energies responsible for transient photoconductivity. An empirical equation is introduced, which determines the linewidth of the activation energy band from the stretched exponential parameter β. Dry annealing at 350 K is observed to slow the transient photoresponse.

Automatic Determination of the Conic Coronal Mass Ejection Model Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pulkkinen, A.; Oates, T.; Taktakishvili, A.

2009-01-01

Characterization of the three-dimensional structure of solar transients using incomplete plane of sky data is a difficult problem whose solutions have potential for societal benefit in terms of space weather applications. In this paper transients are characterized in three dimensions by means of conic coronal mass ejection (CME) approximation. A novel method for the automatic determination of cone model parameters from observed halo CMEs is introduced. The method uses both standard image processing techniques to extract the CME mass from white-light coronagraph images and a novel inversion routine providing the final cone parameters. A bootstrap technique is used to provide model parameter distributions. When combined with heliospheric modeling, the cone model parameter distributions will provide direct means for ensemble predictions of transient propagation in the heliosphere. An initial validation of the automatic method is carried by comparison to manually determined cone model parameters. It is shown using 14 halo CME events that there is reasonable agreement, especially between the heliocentric locations of the cones derived with the two methods. It is argued that both the heliocentric locations and the opening half-angles of the automatically determined cones may be more realistic than those obtained from the manual analysis

Mass and tracer transport within oceanic Lagrangian coherent vortices as diagnosed in a global mesoscale eddying climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarshish, Nathaniel; Abernathey, Ryan; Dufour, Carolina; Frenger, Ivy; Griffies, Stephen

2017-04-01

Transient ocean mesoscale fluctuations play a central role in the global climate system, transporting climate relevant tracers such as heat and carbon. In satellite observations and numerical simulations, mesoscale vortices feature prominently as collectively rotating regions that remain visibly coherent. Prior studies on transport from ocean vortices typically rely on Eulerian identification methods, in which vortices are identified by selecting closed contours of Eulerian fields (e.g. sea surface height, or the Okubo-Weiss parameter) that satisfy geometric criteria and anomaly thresholds. In contrast, recent studies employ Lagrangian analysis of virtual particle trajectories initialized within the selected Eulerian contours, revealing significant discrepancies between the advection of the contour's material interior and the evolution of the Eulerian field contour. This work investigates the global mass and tracer transport associated with materially coherent surface ocean vortices. Further, it addresses differences between Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses for the detection of vortices. To do so, we use GFDL's CM2.6 coupled climate model with 5-10km horizontal grid spacing. We identify coherent vortices in CM2.6 by implementing the Rotationally Coherent Lagrangian Vortex (RCLV) framework, which recently emerged from dynamical systems theory. This approach involves the numerical advection of millions of Lagrangian particles and guarantees material coherence by construction. We compute the statistics, spatial distribution, and lifetimes of coherent vortices in addition to calculating the associated mass and tracer transports. We offer compelling evidence that Eulerian vortex methods are poorly suited to answer questions of mass and tracer transport.

LPJ-GUESS Simulated Western North America Mid-latitude Vegetation Changes for 15-10 ka Using the CCSM3 TraCE Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shafer, S. L.; Bartlein, P. J.

2017-12-01

The period from 15-10 ka was a time of rapid vegetation changes in North America. Continental ice sheets in northern North America were receding, exposing new habitat for vegetation, and regions distant from the ice sheets experienced equally large environmental changes. Northern hemisphere temperatures during this period were increasing, promoting transitions from cold-adapted to temperate plant taxa at mid-latitudes. Long, transient paleovegetation simulations can provide important information on vegetation responses to climate changes, including both the spatial dynamics and rates of species distribution changes over time. Paleovegetation simulations also can fill the spatial and temporal gaps in observed paleovegetation records (e.g., pollen data from lake sediments), allowing us to test hypotheses about past vegetation changes (e.g., the location of past refugia). We used the CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation as input for LPJ-GUESS, a general ecosystem model, to simulate vegetation changes from 15-10 ka for parts of western North America at mid-latitudes ( 35-55° N). For these simulations, LPJ-GUESS was parameterized to simulate key tree taxa for western North America (e.g., Pseudotsuga, Tsuga, Quercus, etc.). The CCSM3 TraCE transient climate simulation data were regridded onto a 10-minute grid of the study area. We analyzed the simulated spatial and temporal dynamics of these taxa and compared the simulated changes with observed paleovegetation changes recorded in pollen and plant macrofossil data (e.g., data from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database). In general, the LPJ-GUESS simulations reproduce the general patterns of paleovegetation responses to climate change, although the timing of some simulated vegetation changes do not match the observed paleovegetation record. We describe the areas and time periods with the greatest data-model agreement and disagreement, and discuss some of the strengths and weaknesses of the simulated climate and vegetation data. The magnitude and rate of the simulated past vegetation changes are compared with projected future vegetation changes for the region.

The North Pacific as a Regulator of Summertime Climate Over North America and the Asian Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wang, H.

2004-01-01

The interannual variability of summertime rainfall over the U.S. may be linked to climate anomalies over Pacific and East Asia through teleconnection patterns that may be components of recurring global climate modes in boreal summer (Lau and Weng 2002). In this study, maintenance of the boreal summer teleconnection patterns is investigated. The particular focus is on the potential effects of North Pacific air-sea interaction on climate anomalies over the U.S. Observational data, reanalysis and outputs of a series of NASA NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to NASA GSFC MLO model experiments are used. Statistical analysis of observations and NSIPP AMIP type simulations indicates that, the interannual variability of observed warm season precipitation over the U.S. is related to SST variation in both tropical and North Pacific, whereas the NSIPP AMIP simulated summertime US. precipitation variation mainly reflects impact of ENS0 in tropical Pacific. This implies the potential importance of air-sea interaction in North Pacific in contributing to the interannual variability of observed summer climate over the U.S. The anomalous atmospheric circulation associated with the dominant summertime teleconnection modes in both observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations are further diagnosed, using stationary wave modeling approach. In observations, for the two dominant modes, both anomalous diabatic heating and anomalous transients significantly contribute to the anomalous circulation. The distributions of the anomalous diabatic heating and transient forcing are quadrature configured over North Pacific and North America, so that both forcings act constructively to maintain the teleconnection patterns. The contrast between observations and NSIPP AMIP simulations from stationary wave modeling diagnosis confirms the previous conclusion based on statistical analysis. To better appreciate the role of extra-tropical air-sea interaction in maintaining the summertime teleconnection pattern, various dynamical and physical fields and their inter- linkage in the series of NSIPP AGCM and AGCM coupled to MLO model experiments are examined in-depth. Based on comparison between different model experiments, we will discuss the physical and dynamical mechanisms through which the air-sea interaction in extratropics, and transient mean flow interactions over the North Pacific, affects interannual variation of U.S. climate during boreal summer.

Mapping ground water vulnerability to pesticide leaching with a process-based metamodel of EuroPEARL.

PubMed

Tiktak, A; Boesten, J J T I; van der Linden, A M A; Vanclooster, M

2006-01-01

To support EU policy, indicators of pesticide leaching at the European level are required. For this reason, a metamodel of the spatially distributed European pesticide leaching model EuroPEARL was developed. EuroPEARL considers transient flow and solute transport and assumes Freundlich adsorption, first-order degradation and passive plant uptake of pesticides. Physical parameters are depth dependent while (bio)-chemical parameters are depth, temperature, and moisture dependent. The metamodel is based on an analytical expression that describes the mass fraction of pesticide leached. The metamodel ignores vertical parameter variations and assumes steady flow. The calibration dataset was generated with EuroPEARL and consisted of approximately 60,000 simulations done for 56 pesticides with different half-lives and partitioning coefficients. The target variable was the 80th percentile of the annual average leaching concentration at 1-m depth from a time series of 20 yr. The metamodel explains over 90% of the variation of the original model with only four independent spatial attributes. These parameters are available in European soil and climate databases, so that the calibrated metamodel could be applied to generate maps of the predicted leaching concentration in the European Union. Maps generated with the metamodel showed a good similarity with the maps obtained with EuroPEARL, which was confirmed by means of quantitative performance indicators.

Global transients in ultraviolet and red-infrared ranges from data of Universitetsky-Tatiana-2 satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garipov, G. K.; Khrenov, B. A.; Klimov, P. A.; Klimenko, V. V.; Mareev, E. A.; Martines, O.; Mendoza, E.; Morozenko, V. S.; Panasyuk, M. I.; Park, I. H.; Ponce, E.; Rivera, L.; Salazar, H.; Tulupov, V. I.; Vedenkin, N. N.; Yashin, I. V.

2013-01-01

Light detectors sensitive to wavelength ranges 240-400 nm and beyond 610 nm (which we refer to, for simplicity, as the UV and Red bands) on board Universitetsky-Tatiana-2 satellite have detected transient flashes in the atmosphere of duration 1-128 ms. Measured ratio of the number of Red photons to the number of UV photons indicates that source of transient radiation is at high atmosphere altitude (>50 km). Distribution of events with various photon numbers Qa in the atmosphere found to be different for "luminous" events Qa = 1023 - 1026 (with exponent of differential distribution -2.2) and for "faint" events Qa = 1021 - 1023 (with exponent - 0.97). Luminous event parameters (atmosphere altitude, energy released to radiation, and temporal profiles) are similar to observed elsewhere parameters of transient luminous events (TLE) of elves, sprites, halo, and gigantic blue jets types. Global map of luminous events demonstrates concentration to equatorial zones (latitudes 30°N to 30°S) above continents. Faint events (with number of photons Qa = 1020 - 5ṡ 1021) are distributed more uniformly over latitudes and longitudes. Phenomenon of series of transients registered every minute along satellite orbit (from 3 to 16 transients in one series) was observed. Most TLE-type events belonged to series. Single transients are in average fainter than serial ones. Some transients belonging to series occurs far away of thunderstorm regions. Origin of faint single transients is not clear; several hypothetical models of their production are discussed.

Microthrix parvicella abundance associates with activated sludge settling velocity and rheology - Quantifying and modelling filamentous bulking.

PubMed

Wágner, Dorottya S; Ramin, Elham; Szabo, Peter; Dechesne, Arnaud; Plósz, Benedek Gy

2015-07-01

The objective of this work is to identify relevant settling velocity and rheology model parameters and to assess the underlying filamentous microbial community characteristics that can influence the solids mixing and transport in secondary settling tanks. Parameter values for hindered, transient and compression settling velocity functions were estimated by carrying out biweekly batch settling tests using a novel column setup through a four-month long measurement campaign. To estimate viscosity model parameters, rheological experiments were carried out on the same sludge sample using a rotational viscometer. Quantitative fluorescence in-situ hybridisation (qFISH) analysis, targeting Microthrix parvicella and phylum Chloroflexi, was used. This study finds that M. parvicella - predominantly residing inside the microbial flocs in our samples - can significantly influence secondary settling through altering the hindered settling velocity and yield stress parameter. Strikingly, this is not the case for Chloroflexi, occurring in more than double the abundance of M. parvicella, and forming filaments primarily protruding from the flocs. The transient and compression settling parameters show a comparably high variability, and no significant association with filamentous abundance. A two-dimensional, axi-symmetrical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was used to assess calibration scenarios to model filamentous bulking. Our results suggest that model predictions can significantly benefit from explicitly accounting for filamentous bulking by calibrating the hindered settling velocity function. Furthermore, accounting for the transient and compression settling velocity in the computational domain is crucial to improve model accuracy when modelling filamentous bulking. However, the case-specific calibration of transient and compression settling parameters as well as yield stress is not necessary, and an average parameter set - obtained under bulking and good settling conditions - can be used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theoretical Models of Optical Transients. I. A Broad Exploration of the Duration-Luminosity Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villar, V. Ashley; Berger, Edo; Metzger, Brian D.; Guillochon, James

2017-11-01

The duration-luminosity phase space (DLPS) of optical transients is used, mostly heuristically, to compare various classes of transient events, to explore the origin of new transients, and to influence optical survey observing strategies. For example, several observational searches have been guided by intriguing voids and gaps in this phase space. However, we should ask, do we expect to find transients in these voids given our understanding of the various heating sources operating in astrophysical transients? In this work, we explore a broad range of theoretical models and empirical relations to generate optical light curves and to populate the DLPS. We explore transients powered by adiabatic expansion, radioactive decay, magnetar spin-down, and circumstellar interaction. For each heating source, we provide a concise summary of the basic physical processes, a physically motivated choice of model parameter ranges, an overall summary of the resulting light curves and their occupied range in the DLPS, and how the various model input parameters affect the light curves. We specifically explore the key voids discussed in the literature: the intermediate-luminosity gap between classical novae and supernovae, and short-duration transients (≲ 10 days). We find that few physical models lead to transients that occupy these voids. Moreover, we find that only relativistic expansion can produce fast and luminous transients, while for all other heating sources events with durations ≲ 10 days are dim ({M}{{R}}≳ -15 mag). Finally, we explore the detection potential of optical surveys (e.g., Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) in the DLPS and quantify the notion that short-duration and dim transients are exponentially more difficult to discover in untargeted surveys.

A study of the kinetic energy generation with general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, T.-C.; Lee, Y.-H.

1983-01-01

The history data of winter simulation by the GLAS climate model and the NCAR community climate model are used to examine the generation of atmospheric kinetic energy. The contrast between the geographic distributions of the generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux shows that kinetic energy is generated in the upstream side of jets, transported to the downstream side and destroyed there. The contributions from the time-mean and transient modes to the counterbalance between generation of kinetic energy and divergence of kinetic energy flux are also investigated. It is observed that the kinetic energy generated by the time-mean mode is essentially redistributed by the time-mean flow, while that generated by the transient flow is mainly responsible for the maintenance of the kinetic energy of the entire atmospheric flow.

Design and Implementation of a Thermal Load Reduction System in a Hyundai PHEV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreutzer, Cory J; Rugh, John P

Increased market penetration of electric drive vehicles (EDVs) requires overcoming a number of hurdles including limited vehicle range and the elevated cost of EDVs as compared to conventional vehicles. Climate control loads have a significant impact on range, cutting it by over 50% in both cooling and heating conditions. In order to minimize the impact of climate control on EDV range, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory has partnered with Hyundai America and key industry partners to quantify the performance of thermal load reduction technologies on a Hyundai Sonata PHEV. Technologies that impact vehicle cabin heating in cold weather conditions andmore » cabin cooling in warm weather conditions were evaluated. Tests included thermal transient and steady-state periods for all technologies, including the development of a new test methodology to evaluate the performance of occupant thermal conditioning. Heated surfaces and increased insulation demonstrated significant reductions in energy use from steady-state heating, including a 29% - 59% reduction from heated surfaces. Solar control glass packages demonstrated significant reductions in energy use for both transient and steady-state cooling, with up to a 42% reduction in transient and 12.8% reduction in steady-state energy use for the packages evaluated. Technologies that demonstrated significant climate control load reduction were selected for incorporation into a complete thermal load reduction package. The complete package is set to be evaluated in the second phase of the ongoing project.« less

Experimental evidence of reorganizing landscape under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2015-12-01

Quantification of the dynamics of landscape reorganization under changing climatic forcing is important to understand geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, assess response of landscapes to external perturbations for future predictive modeling, and for interpreting past climate from stratigraphic record. For such an analysis, however, real landscape observations are limited. To this end, a series of controlled laboratory experiments on evolving landscape were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. High resolution elevation data at a temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm were collected as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5 times precipitation rate). Our results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold increase in precipitation with the fluvial regime encroaching into the previously debris dominated regime, widening and aggradation of channels and valleys, and accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales. To better understand the initiation of the observed reorganization, we perform a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, showing strikingly different spatial patterns on landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is renormalized to match the total volume of eroded and deposited sediment in TS. Our results suggest a regime shift in the behavior of transport processes on the landscape at the intermediate scales i.e., from supply-limited to transport-limited.

Changes in Moisture Flux Over the Tibetan Plateau During 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin

2015-05-01

Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. Improvement in simulating precipitation changes at high elevations contributes dominantly to the improved P-E changes. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regardingmore » the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.« less

Transient dynamics of a nonlinear magneto-optical rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grewal, Raghwinder Singh; Pustelny, S.; Rybak, A.; Florkowski, M.

2018-04-01

We analyze nonlinear magneto-optical rotation (NMOR) in rubidium vapor subjected to a continuously scanned magnetic field. By varying the magnetic-field sweep rate, a transition from traditionally observed dispersivelike NMOR signals (low sweep rate) to oscillating signals (higher sweep rates) is demonstrated. The transient oscillatory behavior is studied versus light and magnetic-field parameters, revealing a strong dependence of the signals on magnetic sweep rate and light intensity. The experimental results are supported with density-matrix calculations, which enable quantitative analysis of the effect. Fitting of the signals simulated versus different parameters with a theoretically motivated curve reveals the presence of oscillatory and static components in the signals. The components depend differently on the system parameters, which suggests their distinct nature. The investigations provide insight into the dynamics of ground-state coherence generation and enable application of NMOR in detection of transient spin couplings.

Spatial trends in Pearson Type III statistical parameters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lichty, R.W.; Karlinger, M.R.

1995-01-01

Spatial trends in the statistical parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skewness coefficient) of a Pearson Type III distribution of the logarithms of annual flood peaks for small rural basins (less than 90 km2) are delineated using a climate factor CT, (T=2-, 25-, and 100-yr recurrence intervals), which quantifies the effects of long-term climatic data (rainfall and pan evaporation) on observed T-yr floods. Maps showing trends in average parameter values demonstrate the geographically varying influence of climate on the magnitude of Pearson Type III statistical parameters. The spatial trends in variability of the parameter values characterize the sensitivity of statistical parameters to the interaction of basin-runoff characteristics (hydrology) and climate. -from Authors

Numerical Simulation and Analyses of the Loss of Feedwater Transient at the Unit 4 of Kola NPP

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stevanovic, Vladimir D.; Stosic, Zoran V.; Kiera, Michael

2002-07-01

A three-dimensional numerical simulation of the loss-of-feed water transient at the horizontal steam generator of the Kola nuclear power plant is performed. Presented numerical results show transient change of integral steam generator parameters, such as steam generation rate, water mass inventory, outlet reactor coolant temperature, as well as detailed distribution of shell side thermal-hydraulic parameters: swell and collapsed levels, void fraction distributions, mass flux vectors, etc. Numerical results are compared with measurements at the Kola NPP. The agreement is satisfactory, while differences are close to or below the measurement uncertainties. Obtained numerical results are the first ones that give completemore » insight into the three-dimensional and transient horizontal steam generator thermal-hydraulics. Also, the presented results serve as benchmark tests for the assessment and further improvement of one-dimensional models of horizontal steam generator built with safety codes. (authors)« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Volkov, M. S.; Gusev, Yu. P., E-mail: GusevYP@mpei.ru; Monakov, Yu. V.

The insertion of current-limiting reactors into electrical equipment operating at a voltage of 110 and 220 kV produces a change in the parameters of the transient recovery voltages at the contacts of the circuit breakers for disconnecting short circuits, which could be the reason for the increase in the duration of the short circuit, damage to the electrical equipment and losses in the power system. The results of mathematical modeling of the transients, caused by tripping of the short circuit in a reactive electric power transmission line are presented, and data are given on the negative effect of a current-limitingmore » resistor on the rate of increase and peak value of the transient recovery voltages. Methods of ensuring the standard requirements imposed on the parameters of the transient recovery voltages when using current-limiting reactors in the high-voltage electrical equipment of power plants and substations are proposed and analyzed.« less

Estimating glacier response times and disequilibrium in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christian, J. E.; Koutnik, M.; Roe, G.

2017-12-01

Glaciers respond to climate variations according to a characteristic timescale that, for most mountain glaciers, is on the order of 10—100 years. An important consequence of this multi-decadal memory is that a glacier's transient response to a climate trend exhibits a persistent lag behind the equilibrium response. In the context of anthropogenic warming, this means that most glaciers are currently well out of equilibrium, and that a substantial amount of retreat is committed even without further warming. The degree of disequilibrium depends fundamentally on the glacier response timescale, making it an important parameter to constrain. A common and robust metric for the response timescale is τ=H/bt, where H and bt are characteristic values for ice thickness and the terminus mass-balance rate, respectively. However, sparse observations, climate variability, and glacier disequilibrium make it difficult to define these characteristic values. We compare several sources of uncertainty that will affect estimates of the response timescale and thus the degree of disequilibrium. Ice thickness is poorly constrained for many glaciers, which bears directly on estimates of the response timescale. However, errors may also arise from estimating thickness and mass-balance rates in a variable climate. We assess how noisy mass balance and observed terminus fluctuations introduce sampling errors into estimates of the glacier's response timescale and the expected equilibrium response to a climate change. Additionally, the instantaneous value of τ evolves during sustained warming as the glacier thins and retreats. Perhaps counterintuitively, τ can increase if retreat into higher elevations exceeds thinning. This has implications for estimating the timescale based on currently observed geometry and mass balance. We use shallow-ice and 3-stage linear models to explore these effects with synthetic glacier geometries and climate forcings. In this way, we can diagnose the geometric and climatic sources of uncertainty in glacier response timescales and degrees of disequilibrium. Estimating these metrics from existing datasets is necessary to relate mass balance to glacier state and to anticipate future responses; our analyses will help constrain such estimates and improve understanding of their limitations.

Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments.

PubMed

Tao, Fulu; Rötter, Reimund P; Palosuo, Taru; Gregorio Hernández Díaz-Ambrona, Carlos; Mínguez, M Inés; Semenov, Mikhail A; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Nendel, Claas; Specka, Xenia; Hoffmann, Holger; Ewert, Frank; Dambreville, Anaelle; Martre, Pierre; Rodríguez, Lucía; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Gaiser, Thomas; Höhn, Jukka G; Salo, Tapio; Ferrise, Roberto; Bindi, Marco; Cammarano, Davide; Schulman, Alan H

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessments are plagued with uncertainties from many sources, such as climate projections or the inadequacies in structure and parameters of the impact model. Previous studies tried to account for the uncertainty from one or two of these. Here, we developed a triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment using seven crop models, multiple sets of model parameters and eight contrasting climate projections together to comprehensively account for uncertainties from these three important sources. We demonstrated the approach in assessing climate change impact on barley growth and yield at Jokioinen, Finland in the Boreal climatic zone and Lleida, Spain in the Mediterranean climatic zone, for the 2050s. We further quantified and compared the contribution of crop model structure, crop model parameters and climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Based on the triple-ensemble probabilistic assessment, the median of simulated yield change was -4% and +16%, and the probability of decreasing yield was 63% and 31% in the 2050s, at Jokioinen and Lleida, respectively, relative to 1981-2010. The contribution of crop model structure to the total variance of ensemble output was larger than that from downscaled climate projections and model parameters. The relative contribution of crop model parameters and downscaled climate projections to the total variance of ensemble output varied greatly among the seven crop models and between the two sites. The contribution of downscaled climate projections was on average larger than that of crop model parameters. This information on the uncertainty from different sources can be quite useful for model users to decide where to put the most effort when preparing or choosing models or parameters for impact analyses. We concluded that the triple-ensemble probabilistic approach that accounts for the uncertainties from multiple important sources provide more comprehensive information for quantifying uncertainties in climate change impact assessments as compared to the conventional approaches that are deterministic or only account for the uncertainties from one or two of the uncertainty sources. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Landscape Evolution, A Comparison of Form and Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bursik, Marcus I.

2000-01-01

This project's goals were to collect, analyze and interpret 3-dimensional physiographic data for understanding the processes responsible for landscape modification. The primary landforms to be studied were Neogene cinder cones in Arizona (San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF), Coconino and Kaibab National Forests, Arizona). We also obtained and are still analyzing digital topographic data for the Long Valley-White Mountains area of California, which display Quaternary normal fault scarps, as well as extensive evidence of degradation. The work resulted in a large database of measured rates of downslope transport of slope debris. It was hypothesized that the work would increase our understanding of process-response models of hillslope degradation, and of the effects of climate change and other parameters on degradation rates. In greater detail, our primary goal was to compare evolutionary sequences of hillslopes, as exemplified by the topography of landforms of the same type but of different ages, with measurements of the surficial processes active on the landforms. Assuming that other parameters, such as hillslope materials and vegetation are held constant, and that the effects of changing climate are negligible, then the sediment transport rates measured today on the landforms should be the same as those calculated from the inversion of landform topography by use of a diffusion-type model. However, if the effects of changing climate or other factors are not negligible, then the observed transport rates would differ from those which must be invoked to explain the current topography. We hypothesized in fact that because degradation on the event scale is highly transient and localized, we would find a wide divergence between modern, measured transport rates, and rates calculated by global landform inversion or modeling. Because of the length of time involved in collection of sufficient data on current degradation rates, we are still continuing to analyse and interpret the data. Completion of the work will increase our understanding of the potential effects of anthropogenic climate and surficial change on the Earth's solid surface, and possibly allow us to constrain paths of hill-slope evolution following anthropogenic modifications, as well as compare the short-term with the long-term rates of hillslope degradation.

A software tool to assess uncertainty in transient-storage model parameters using Monte Carlo simulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Adam S.; Kelleher, Christa A.; Mason, Seth J. K.; Wagener, Thorsten; McIntyre, Neil; McGlynn, Brian L.; Runkel, Robert L.; Payn, Robert A.

2017-01-01

Researchers and practitioners alike often need to understand and characterize how water and solutes move through a stream in terms of the relative importance of in-stream and near-stream storage and transport processes. In-channel and subsurface storage processes are highly variable in space and time and difficult to measure. Storage estimates are commonly obtained using transient-storage models (TSMs) of the experimentally obtained solute-tracer test data. The TSM equations represent key transport and storage processes with a suite of numerical parameters. Parameter values are estimated via inverse modeling, in which parameter values are iteratively changed until model simulations closely match observed solute-tracer data. Several investigators have shown that TSM parameter estimates can be highly uncertain. When this is the case, parameter values cannot be used reliably to interpret stream-reach functioning. However, authors of most TSM studies do not evaluate or report parameter certainty. Here, we present a software tool linked to the One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage (OTIS) model that enables researchers to conduct uncertainty analyses via Monte-Carlo parameter sampling and to visualize uncertainty and sensitivity results. We demonstrate application of our tool to 2 case studies and compare our results to output obtained from more traditional implementation of the OTIS model. We conclude by suggesting best practices for transient-storage modeling and recommend that future applications of TSMs include assessments of parameter certainty to support comparisons and more reliable interpretations of transport processes.

Selection Dynamics in Transient Compartmentalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blokhuis, Alex; Lacoste, David; Nghe, Philippe; Peliti, Luca

2018-04-01

Transient compartments have been recently shown to be able to maintain functional replicators in the context of prebiotic studies. Here, we show that a broad class of selection dynamics is able to achieve this goal. We identify two key parameters, the relative amplification of nonactive replicators (parasites) and the size of compartments. These parameters account for competition and diversity, and the results are relevant to similar multilevel selection problems, such as those found in virus-host ecology and trait group selection.

Wayside Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on a Data-Driven Doppler Effect Eliminator and Transient Model Analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Fang; Shen, Changqing; He, Qingbo; Zhang, Ao; Liu, Yongbin; Kong, Fanrang

2014-01-01

A fault diagnosis strategy based on the wayside acoustic monitoring technique is investigated for locomotive bearing fault diagnosis. Inspired by the transient modeling analysis method based on correlation filtering analysis, a so-called Parametric-Mother-Doppler-Wavelet (PMDW) is constructed with six parameters, including a center characteristic frequency and five kinematic model parameters. A Doppler effect eliminator containing a PMDW generator, a correlation filtering analysis module, and a signal resampler is invented to eliminate the Doppler effect embedded in the acoustic signal of the recorded bearing. Through the Doppler effect eliminator, the five kinematic model parameters can be identified based on the signal itself. Then, the signal resampler is applied to eliminate the Doppler effect using the identified parameters. With the ability to detect early bearing faults, the transient model analysis method is employed to detect localized bearing faults after the embedded Doppler effect is eliminated. The effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis strategy is verified via simulation studies and applications to diagnose locomotive roller bearing defects. PMID:24803197

Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs*

DOE PAGES

Castruccio, Stefano; McInerney, David J.; Stein, Michael L.; ...

2014-02-24

The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as patternmore » scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. In conclusion, it may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.« less

Modelled non-linear response to climate of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap, southern Norway, since the mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åkesson, Henning; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Giesen, Rianne H.; Morlighem, Mathieu

2016-04-01

Glacier and ice cap volume changes currently amount to half of the total cryospheric contribution to sea-level rise and are projected to remain substantial throughout the 21st century. To simulate glacier behavior on centennial and longer time scales, models rely on simplified dynamics and tunable parameters for processes not well understood. Model calibration is often done using present-day observations, even though the relationship between parameters and parametrized processes may be altered for significantly different glacier states. In this study, we simulate the Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene, through the Little Ice Age (LIA) and into the future. We run an ensemble for both calibration and transient experiments, using a two-dimensional ice flow model with mesh refinement. For the Holocene, we apply a simple mass balance forcing based on climate reconstructions. For the LIA until 1962, we use geomorphological evidence and measured outlet glacier positions to find a mass balance history, while we use direct mass balance measurements from 1963 until today. Given a linear climate forcing, we show that Hardangerøkulen grew from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene, to its maximum LIA extent in a highly non-linear fashion. We relate this to local bed topography and demonstrate that volume and area of some but not all outlet glaciers, as well as the entire ice cap, become decoupled for several centuries during our simulation of the late Holocene, before co-varying approaching the LIA. Our model is able to simulate most recorded ice cap and outlet glacier changes from the LIA until today. We show that present-day Hardangerøkulen is highly sensitive to mass balance changes, and estimate that the ice cap will melt completely by the year 2100.

Efficient design based on perturbed parameter ensembles to identify plausible and diverse variants of a model for climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karmalkar, A.; Sexton, D.; Murphy, J.

2017-12-01

We present exploratory work towards developing an efficient strategy to select variants of a state-of-the-art but expensive climate model suitable for climate projection studies. The strategy combines information from a set of idealized perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) and CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (MME) experiments, and uses two criteria as basis to select model variants for a PPE suitable for future projections: a) acceptable model performance at two different timescales, and b) maintaining diversity in model response to climate change. We demonstrate that there is a strong relationship between model errors at weather and climate timescales for a variety of key variables. This relationship is used to filter out parts of parameter space that do not give credible simulations of historical climate, while minimizing the impact on ranges in forcings and feedbacks that drive model responses to climate change. We use statistical emulation to explore the parameter space thoroughly, and demonstrate that about 90% can be filtered out without affecting diversity in global-scale climate change responses. This leads to identification of plausible parts of parameter space from which model variants can be selected for projection studies.

Doppler ultrasonography combined with transient elastography improves the non-invasive assessment of fibrosis in patients with chronic liver diseases.

PubMed

Alempijevic, Tamara; Zec, Simon; Nikolic, Vladimir; Veljkovic, Aleksandar; Stojanovic, Zoran; Matovic, Vera; Milosavljevic, Tomica

2017-01-31

Accurate clinical assessment of liver fibrosis is essential and the aim of our study was to compare and combine hemodynamic Doppler ultrasonography, liver stiffness by transient elastography, and non-invasive serum biomarkers with the degree of fibrosis confirmed by liver biopsy, and thereby to determine the value of combining non-invasive method in the prediction significant liver fibrosis. We included 102 patients with chronic liver disease of various etiology. Each patient was evaluated using Doppler ultrasonography measurements of the velocity and flow pattern at portal trunk, hepatic and splenic artery, serum fibrosis biomarkers, and transient elastography. These parameters were then input into a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network with two hidden layers, and used to create models for predicting significant fibrosis. According to METAVIR score, clinically significant fibrosis (≥F2) was detected in 57.8% of patients. A model based only on Doppler parameters (hepatic artery diameter, hepatic artery systolic and diastolic velocity, splenic artery systolic velocity and splenic artery Resistance Index), predicted significant liver fibrosis with a sensitivity and specificity of75.0% and 60.0%. The addition of unrelated non-invasive tests improved the diagnostic accuracy of Doppler examination. The best model for prediction of significant fibrosis was obtained by combining Doppler parameters, non-invasive markers (APRI, ASPRI, and FIB-4) and transient elastography, with a sensitivity and specificity of 88.9% and 100%. Doppler parameters alone predict the presence of ≥F2 fibrosis with fair accuracy. Better prediction rates are achieved by combining Doppler variables with non-invasive markers and liver stiffness by transient elastography.

Influences of brain tissue poroelastic constants on intracranial pressure (ICP) during constant-rate infusion.

PubMed

Li, Xiaogai; von Holst, Hans; Kleiven, Svein

2013-01-01

A 3D finite element (FE) model has been developed to study the mean intracranial pressure (ICP) response during constant-rate infusion using linear poroelasticity. Due to the uncertainties in the poroelastic constants for brain tissue, the influence of each of the main parameters on the transient ICP infusion curve was studied. As a prerequisite for transient analysis, steady-state simulations were performed first. The simulated steady-state pressure distribution in the brain tissue for a normal cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) circulation system showed good correlation with experiments from the literature. Furthermore, steady-state ICP closely followed the infusion experiments at different infusion rates. The verified steady-state models then served as a baseline for the subsequent transient models. For transient analysis, the simulated ICP shows a similar tendency to that found in the experiments, however, different values of the poroelastic constants have a significant effect on the infusion curve. The influence of the main poroelastic parameters including the Biot coefficient α, Skempton coefficient B, drained Young's modulus E, Poisson's ratio ν, permeability κ, CSF absorption conductance C(b) and external venous pressure p(b) was studied to investigate the influence on the pressure response. It was found that the value of the specific storage term S(ε) is the dominant factor that influences the infusion curve, and the drained Young's modulus E was identified as the dominant parameter second to S(ε). Based on the simulated infusion curves from the FE model, artificial neural network (ANN) was used to find an optimised parameter set that best fit the experimental curve. The infusion curves from both the FE simulation and using ANN confirmed the limitation of linear poroelasticity in modelling the transient constant-rate infusion.

Constraints on Transient Viscoelastic Rheology of the Asthenosphere From Seasonal Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanard, Kristel; Fleitout, Luce; Calais, Eric; Barbot, Sylvain; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2018-03-01

We discuss the constraints on short-term asthenospheric viscosity provided by seasonal deformation of the Earth. We use data from 195 globally distributed continuous Global Navigation Satellite System stations. Surface loading is derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and used as an input to predict geodetic displacements. We compute Green's functions for surface displacements for a purely elastic spherical reference Earth model and for viscoelastic Earth models. We show that a range of transient viscoelastic rheologies derived to explain the early phase of postseismic deformation may induce a detectable effect on the phase and amplitude of horizontal displacements induced by seasonal loading at long wavelengths (1,300-4,000 km). By comparing predicted and observed seasonal horizontal motion, we conclude that transient asthenospheric viscosity cannot be lower than 5 × 1017 Pa.s, suggesting that low values of transient asthenospheric viscosities reported in some postseismic studies cannot hold for the seasonal deformation global average.

Indirect synthesis of multidegree-of-freedom transient systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Y. H.; Pilkey, W. D.; Kalinowski, A. J.

1976-01-01

The indirect synthesis method is developed and shown to be capable of leading a near-optimal design of multidegree-of-freedom and multidesign-element transient nonlinear dynamical systems. The basis of the approach is to select the open design parameters such that the response of the portion of the system being designed approximates the limiting performances solution. The limiting performance problem can be formulated as one of linear programming by replacing all portions of the system subject to transient disturbances by control forces and supposing that the remaining portions are linear as are the overall kinematic constraints. One then selects the design parameters that respond most closely to the limiting performance solution, which can be achieved by unconstrained curve-fitting techniques.

Modeling soil temperature change in Seward Peninsula, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debolskiy, M. V.; Nicolsky, D.; Romanovsky, V. E.; Muskett, R. R.; Panda, S. K.

2017-12-01

Increasing demand for assessment of climate change-induced permafrost degradation and its consequences promotes creation of high-resolution modeling products of soil temperature changes. This is especially relevant for areas with highly vulnerable warm discontinuous permafrost in the Western Alaska. In this study, we apply ecotype-based modeling approach to simulate high-resolution permafrost distribution and its temporal dynamics in Seward Peninsula, Alaska. To model soil temperature dynamics, we use a transient soil heat transfer model developed at the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL-2). The model solves one dimensional nonlinear heat equation with phase change. The developed model is forced with combination of historical climate and different future scenarios for 1900-2100 with 2x2 km resolution prepared by Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (2017). Vegetation, snow and soil properties are calibrated by ecotype and up-scaled by using Alaska Existing Vegetation Type map for Western Alaska (Flemming, 2015) with 30x30 m resolution provided by Geographic Information Network of Alaska (UAF). The calibrated ecotypes cover over 75% of the study area. We calibrate the model using a data assimilation technique utilizing available observations of air, surface and sub-surface temperatures and snow cover collected by various agencies and research groups (USGS, Geophysical Institute, USDA). The calibration approach takes into account a natural variability between stations in the same ecotype and finds an optimal set of model parameters (snow and soil properties) within the study area. This approach allows reduction in microscale heterogeneity and aggregated soil temperature data from shallow boreholes which is highly dependent on local conditions. As a result of this study we present a series of preliminary high resolution maps for the Seward Peninsula showing changes in the active layer depth and ground temperatures for the current climate and future climate change scenarios.

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

2013-12-01

We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

Automated parameter tuning applied to sea ice in a global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, Lettie A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Mineter, Michael J.; Yamazaki, Kuniko; Rae, Cameron D.

2018-01-01

This study investigates the hypothesis that a significant portion of spread in climate model projections of sea ice is due to poorly-constrained model parameters. New automated methods for optimization are applied to historical sea ice in a global coupled climate model (HadCM3) in order to calculate the combination of parameters required to reduce the difference between simulation and observations to within the range of model noise. The optimized parameters result in a simulated sea-ice time series which is more consistent with Arctic observations throughout the satellite record (1980-present), particularly in the September minimum, than the standard configuration of HadCM3. Divergence from observed Antarctic trends and mean regional sea ice distribution reflects broader structural uncertainty in the climate model. We also find that the optimized parameters do not cause adverse effects on the model climatology. This simple approach provides evidence for the contribution of parameter uncertainty to spread in sea ice extent trends and could be customized to investigate uncertainties in other climate variables.

Uncertainty, Sensitivity Analysis, and Causal Identification in the Arctic using a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble of the HiLAT Climate Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

Coupled climate models have a large number of input parameters that can affect output uncertainty. We conducted a sensitivity analysis of sea ice proper:es and Arc:c related climate variables to 5 parameters in the HiLAT climate model: air-ocean turbulent exchange parameter (C), conversion of water vapor to clouds (cldfrc_rhminl) and of ice crystals to snow (micro_mg_dcs), snow thermal conduc:vity (ksno), and maximum snow grain size (rsnw_mlt). We used an elementary effect (EE) approach to rank their importance for output uncertainty. EE is an extension of one-at-a-time sensitivity analyses, but it is more efficient in sampling multi-dimensional parameter spaces. We lookedmore » for emerging relationships among climate variables across the model ensemble, and used causal discovery algorithms to establish potential pathways for those relationships.« less

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Losic, M.; Robock, A.

2010-12-01

It is well-understood that the effects of volcanic aerosol loading into the stratosphere are transient, with global cooling lasting only a few years after a single large eruption. Geological evidence collected from Northern Baffin Island, Canada, suggests ice cap growth began soon after a succession of several large eruptions in the 13th century, and they did not start to melt until roughly a century ago. We investigate which feedbacks allowed these ice caps to be maintained long after the transient forcing of the volcanic aerosols, by conducting sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Polar WRF, a version of WRF developed specifically for the polar regions. Results from an ensemble of month-long regional simulations over Baffin Island suggest that better treatment of snow and ice in Polar WRF improves our regional climate simulations. Thus, sensitivity test results from decade-long runs with imposed changes to boundary condition temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations using Polar WRF are presented. Preliminary findings suggest that not only large scale but localized climate feedbacks play an important role in the responses of the ice caps after temperature and carbon dioxide forcings are applied. The results from these and further sensitivity tests will provide insight into the influence of regional feedbacks on the persistence of these ice caps long after the 13th century eruptions.

Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

PubMed Central

Knight, Christopher G.; Knight, Sylvia H. E.; Massey, Neil; Aina, Tolu; Christensen, Carl; Frame, Dave J.; Kettleborough, Jamie A.; Martin, Andrew; Pascoe, Stephen; Sanderson, Ben; Stainforth, David A.; Allen, Myles R.

2007-01-01

In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally. PMID:17640921

Uncertainty in simulated groundwater-quality trends in transient flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, J. Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios; Robbins, Gary A.

2013-01-01

In numerical modeling of groundwater flow, the result of a given solution method is affected by the way in which transient flow conditions and geologic heterogeneity are simulated. An algorithm is demonstrated that simulates breakthrough curves at a pumping well by convolution-based particle tracking in a transient flow field for several synthetic basin-scale aquifers. In comparison to grid-based (Eulerian) methods, the particle (Lagrangian) method is better able to capture multimodal breakthrough caused by changes in pumping at the well, although the particle method may be apparently nonlinear because of the discrete nature of particle arrival times. Trial-and-error choice of number of particles and release times can perhaps overcome the apparent nonlinearity. Heterogeneous aquifer properties tend to smooth the effects of transient pumping, making it difficult to separate their effects in parameter estimation. Porosity, a new parameter added for advective transport, can be accurately estimated using both grid-based and particle-based methods, but predictions can be highly uncertain, even in the simple, nonreactive case.

Communication: Appearance of undershoots in start-up shear: Experimental findings captured by tumbling-snake dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephanou, Pavlos S.; Schweizer, Thomas; Kröger, Martin

2017-04-01

Our experimental data unambiguously show (i) a damping behavior (the appearance of an undershoot following the overshoot) in the transient shear viscosity of a concentrated polymeric solution, and (ii) the absence of a corresponding behavior in the transient normal stress coefficients. Both trends are shown to be quantitatively captured by the bead-link chain kinetic theory for concentrated polymer solutions and entangled polymer melts proposed by Curtiss and Bird, supplemented by a non-constant link tension coefficient that we relate to the nematic order parameter. The observed phenomena are attributed to the tumbling behavior of the links, triggered by rotational fluctuations, on top of reptation. Using model parameters deduced from stationary data, we calculate the transient behavior of the stress tensor for this "tumbling-snake" model after startup of shear flow efficiently via simple Brownian dynamics. The unaltered method is capable of handling arbitrary homogeneous flows and has the promising capacity to improve our understanding of the transient behavior of concentrated polymer solutions.

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenthal, William Steven; Tartakovsky, Alex; Huang, Zhenyu

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integratemore » them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.« less

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

DOE PAGES

Rosenthal, William Steven; Tartakovsky, Alex; Huang, Zhenyu

2017-10-31

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integratemore » them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.« less

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.

PubMed

Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth

2013-08-02

Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.

A new transiently chaotic flow with ellipsoid equilibria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panahi, Shirin; Aram, Zainab; Jafari, Sajad; Pham, Viet-Thanh; Volos, Christos; Rajagopal, Karthikeyan

2018-03-01

In this article, a simple autonomous transiently chaotic flow with cubic nonlinearities is proposed. This system represents some unusual features such as having a surface of equilibria. We shall describe some dynamical properties and behaviours of this system in terms of eigenvalue structures, bifurcation diagrams, time series, and phase portraits. Various behaviours of this system such as periodic and transiently chaotic dynamics can be shown by setting special parameters in proper values. Our system belongs to a newly introduced category of transiently chaotic systems: systems with hidden attractors. Transiently chaotic behaviour of our proposed system has been implemented and tested by the OrCAD-PSpise software. We have found a proper qualitative similarity between circuit and simulation results.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate.

PubMed

Fung, Inez Y; Doney, Scott C; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-08-09

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain.

Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate

PubMed Central

Fung, Inez Y.; Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin

2005-01-01

Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain. PMID:16061800

The role of transients in the Mid Summer Drought over the Tropical Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, E.; Magaña Rueda, V.; Caetano, E.

2013-05-01

The Mid Summer Drought (MSD) has raised the interested of those interested in regional climate dynamics since it appears to be a unique characteristic of the tropical Americas climate. The MSD corresponds to a relative minimum in summer precipitation between July and August in the Mesoamerican region. Several theories have been posed to explain its origin including the annual cycle march of the ITCZ, a teleconnection from the Asian monsoon region, or an air sea interaction process that relates the warm pools over the eastern Pacific and the Caribbean Sea. However, none of them has addressed the various characteristics of the MSD described by Magaña et al (1999) and Magaña and Caetano (2005). In the present paper, the role of the transient mean flow interaction over the Caribbean Sea is explored. The Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) and the transients interact in such a way that the CLLJ reaches maximum intensity when the MSD occurs. This is a period of minimum Perturbation Kinetic Energy in the region, suggesting that a CLLJ stronger than approximately 15 m/s tends to inhibit the amplification of eddies. Transients are crucial dynamic elements to produce precipitation over the Mexico and Central American region. Over the eastern Pacific warm pool, tropical convection and sea surface temperature are related by a sort of Clausius Clapeyron exponential equation. However, there are two branches for the relationship, one for the first maximum in tropical convection during June, and a second one during September, with a relative minimum corresponding to the MSD in July - August. The most interesting aspect of such patterns is that while the June exponential curves occurs at SST larger than 28°C, the curve corresponding to September takes place at lower SSTs, suggesting that transient activity in this period is necessary to enhance tropical convective activity during the latter part of the summer rains in the region. This is exactly the period when PKE increases over the Intra Americas Seas and the eastern tropical Pacific. A more comprehensive qualitative model is proposed to connect the various dynamical elements in the region that result in the MSD. This new model presents a more complicated picture of the regional climate dynamics than various theories have proposed.

Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knutti, Reto; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.

2017-10-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity characterizes the Earth's long-term global temperature response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. It has reached almost iconic status as the single number that describes how severe climate change will be. The consensus on the 'likely' range for climate sensitivity of 1.5 °C to 4.5 °C today is the same as given by Jule Charney in 1979, but now it is based on quantitative evidence from across the climate system and throughout climate history. The quest to constrain climate sensitivity has revealed important insights into the timescales of the climate system response, natural variability and limitations in observations and climate models, but also concerns about the simple concepts underlying climate sensitivity and radiative forcing, which opens avenues to better understand and constrain the climate response to forcing. Estimates of the transient climate response are better constrained by observed warming and are more relevant for predicting warming over the next decades. Newer metrics relating global warming directly to the total emitted CO2 show that in order to keep warming to within 2 °C, future CO2 emissions have to remain strongly limited, irrespective of climate sensitivity being at the high or low end.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Savich, A. I.; Bugaevskii, A. G., E-mail: office@geodyn.ru, E-mail: bugaevskiy@geodyn.ru

Functional dependencies are established for the characteristics of seismic transients recorded at various points of a studied site, which are used to propose a new approach to seismic microzonation (SMZ) that enables the creation of new SMZ maps of strong seismic motion, with due regard for dynamic parameters of recorded transients during weak earthquakes.

CIRCUS--A digital computer program for transient analysis of electronic circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, W. T.; Steinbert, L. L.

1968-01-01

Computer program simulates the time domain response of an electronic circuit to an arbitrary forcing function. CIRCUS uses a charge-control parameter model to represent each semiconductor device. Given the primary photocurrent, the transient behavior of a circuit in a radiation environment is determined.

Measurand transient signal suppressor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bozeman, Richard J., Jr. (Inventor)

1994-01-01

A transient signal suppressor for use in a controls system which is adapted to respond to a change in a physical parameter whenever it crosses a predetermined threshold value in a selected direction of increasing or decreasing values with respect to the threshold value and is sustained for a selected discrete time interval is presented. The suppressor includes a sensor transducer for sensing the physical parameter and generating an electrical input signal whenever the sensed physical parameter crosses the threshold level in the selected direction. A manually operated switch is provided for adapting the suppressor to produce an output drive signal whenever the physical parameter crosses the threshold value in the selected direction of increasing or decreasing values. A time delay circuit is selectively adjustable for suppressing the transducer input signal for a preselected one of a plurality of available discrete suppression time and producing an output signal only if the input signal is sustained for a time greater than the selected suppression time. An electronic gate is coupled to receive the transducer input signal and the timer output signal and produce an output drive signal for energizing a control relay whenever the transducer input is a non-transient signal which is sustained beyond the selected time interval.

Study on the separation effect of high-speed ultrasonic vibration cutting.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiangyu; Sui, He; Zhang, Deyuan; Jiang, Xinggang

2018-07-01

High-speed ultrasonic vibration cutting (HUVC) has been proven to be significantly effective when turning Ti-6Al-4V alloy in recent researches. Despite of breaking through the cutting speed restriction of the ultrasonic vibration cutting (UVC) method, HUVC can also achieve the reduction of cutting force and the improvements in surface quality and cutting efficiency in the high-speed machining field. These benefits all result from the separation effect that occurs during the HUVC process. Despite the fact that the influences of vibration and cutting parameters have been discussed in previous researches, the separation analysis of HUVC should be conducted in detail in real cutting situations, and the tool geometry parameters should also be considered. In this paper, three situations are investigated in details: (1) cutting without negative transient clearance angle and without tool wear, (2) cutting with negative transient clearance angle and without tool wear, and (3) cutting with tool wear. And then, complete separation state, partial separation state and continuous cutting state are deduced according to real cutting processes. All the analysis about the above situations demonstrate that the tool-workpiece separation will take place only if appropriate cutting parameters, vibration parameters, and tool geometry parameters are set up. The best separation effect was obtained with a low feedrate and a phase shift approaching 180 degrees. Moreover, flank face interference resulted from the negative transient clearance angle and tool wear contributes to an improved separation effect that makes the workpiece and tool separate even at zero phase shift. Finally, axial and radial transient cutting force are firstly obtained to verify the separation effect of HUVC, and the cutting chips are collected to weigh the influence of flank face interference. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of transient climate change upon Grouse population dynamics in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirovano, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

2010-05-01

Understanding the effect of short to medium term weather condition, and of transient global warming upon wildlife species life history is essential to predict the demographic consequences therein, and possibly develop adaptation strategies, especially in game species, where hunting mortality may play an important role in population dynamics. We carried out a preliminary investigation of observed impact of weather variables upon population dynamics indexes of three alpine Grouse species (i.e. Rock Ptarmigan, Lagopus Mutus, Black Grouse, Tetrao Tetrix, Rock Partridge, Alectoris Graeca), nested within central Italian Alps, based upon 15 years (1995-2009) of available censuses data, provided by the Sondrio Province authority. We used a set of climate variables already highlighted within recent literature for carrying considerable bearing on Grouse population dynamics, including e.g. temperature at hatching time and during winter, snow cover at nesting, and precipitation during nursing period. We then developed models of Grouses' population dynamics by explicitly driving population change according to their dependence upon the significant weather variables and population density and we evaluated objective indexes to assess the so obtained predictive power. Eventually, we develop projection of future local climate, based upon locally derived trends, and upon projections from GCMs (A2 IPCC storyline) already validated for the area, to project forward in time (until 2100 or so) the significant climatic variables, which we then use to force population dynamics models of the target species. The projected patterns obtained through this exercise are discussed and compared against those expected under stationary climate conditions at present, and preliminary conclusions are drawn.

Walker circulation in a transient climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plesca, Elina; Grützun, Verena; Buehler, Stefan A.

2016-04-01

The tropical overturning circulations modulate the heat exchange across the tropics and between the tropics and the poles. The anthropogenic influence on the climate system will affect these circulations, impacting the dynamics of the Earth system. In this work we focus on the Walker circulation. We investigate its temporal and spatial dynamical changes and their link to other climate features, such as surface and sea-surface temperature patterns, El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and ocean heat-uptake, both at global and regional scale. In order to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the tropical circulation, we analyze the outputs of 28 general circulation models (GCMs) from the CMIP5 project. We use the experiment with 1% year-1 increase in CO2 concentration from pre-industrial levels to quadrupling of the concentration. Consistent with previous studies (ex. Ma and Xie 2013), we find that for this experiment most GCMs associate a weakening Walker circulation to a warming transient climate. Due to the role of the Walker Pacific cell in the meridional heat and moisture transport across the tropical Pacific and also the connection to ENSO, we find that a weakened Walker circulation correlates with more extreme El-Niño events, although without a change in their frequency. The spatial analysis of the Pacific Walker cell suggests an eastward displacement of the ascending branch, which is consistent with positive SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and the link of the Pacific Walker cell to ENSO. Recent studies (ex. England et al. 2014) have linked a strengthened Walker circulation to stronger ocean heat uptake, especially in the western Pacific. The inter-model comparison of the correlation between Walker circulation intensity and ocean heat uptake does not convey a robust response for the investigated experiment. However, there is some evidence that a stronger weakening of the Walker circulation is linked to a higher transient climate response (temperature change by the time of CO2 doubling), which in turn might be related to a decreased ocean heat uptake. This uncertainty across the models we attribute to the multitude of factors controlling ocean and atmosphere heat exchange, both at global and regional scales, as well as to the present capabilities of GCMs in simulating this exchange. References: England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A., 2014. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4 (3): 222-227. Ma, J., and Xie, S. P., 2013. Regional Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature Change: A Source of Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation and Atmospheric Circulation*. Journal of Climate, 26 (8): 2482-2501

Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

2013-12-01

The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme climate scenarios. In some regions of the study area and under these extreme conditions, groundwater surface would decline more than 10 m. Although more optimistic scenarios resulted in an increase of groundwater levels in more than half of ROB, these would cause up to 5 m water table decline. The results reinforce the need for a permanent hydrogeological monitoring, mainly in the GAS recharge areas, along with the development of other climate change impacts assessment works using different downscaling and recharge estimates methods.

The Early Eocene equable climate problem: can perturbations of climate model parameters identify possible solutions?

PubMed

Sagoo, Navjit; Valdes, Paul; Flecker, Rachel; Gregoire, Lauren J

2013-10-28

Geological data for the Early Eocene (56-47.8 Ma) indicate extensive global warming, with very warm temperatures at both poles. However, despite numerous attempts to simulate this warmth, there are remarkable data-model differences in the prediction of these polar surface temperatures, resulting in the so-called 'equable climate problem'. In this paper, for the first time an ensemble with a perturbed climate-sensitive model parameters approach has been applied to modelling the Early Eocene climate. We performed more than 100 simulations with perturbed physics parameters, and identified two simulations that have an optimal fit with the proxy data. We have simulated the warmth of the Early Eocene at 560 ppmv CO2, which is a much lower CO2 level than many other models. We investigate the changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud properties and ocean circulation that are common to these simulations and how they differ from the remaining simulations in order to understand what mechanisms contribute to the polar warming. The parameter set from one of the optimal Early Eocene simulations also produces a favourable fit for the last glacial maximum boundary climate and outperforms the control parameter set for the present day. Although this does not 'prove' that this model is correct, it is very encouraging that there is a parameter set that creates a climate model able to simulate well very different palaeoclimates and the present-day climate. Interestingly, to achieve the great warmth of the Early Eocene this version of the model does not have a strong future climate change Charney climate sensitivity. It produces a Charney climate sensitivity of 2.7(°)C, whereas the mean value of the 18 models in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) is 3.26(°)C±0.69(°)C. Thus, this value is within the range and below the mean of the models included in the AR4.

Effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, Oliver; Hambira, Wame L.

2018-06-01

In semi-arid developing countries, most poor people depend on contaminated surface or groundwater resources since they do not have access to safe and centrally supplied water. These water resources are threatened by several factors that include high evapotranspiration rates. In the Okavango Delta region in the north-western Botswana, communities facing insufficient centrally supplied water rely mainly on the surface water resources of the Delta. The Delta loses about 98% of its water through evapotranspiration. However, the 2% remaining water rescues the communities facing insufficient water from the main stream water supply. To understand the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources, this study analysed trends in the main climatic parameters needed as input variables in evapotranspiration models. The Mann Kendall test was used in the analysis. Trend analysis is crucial since it reveals the direction of trends in the climatic parameters, which is helpful in determining the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration. The main climatic parameters required as input variables in evapotranspiration models that were of interest in this study were wind speeds, solar radiation and relative humidity. Very little research has been conducted on these climatic parameters in the Okavango Delta region. The conducted trend analysis was more on wind speeds, which had relatively longer data records than the other two climatic parameters of interest. Generally, statistically significant increasing trends have been found, which suggests that climate change is likely to further increase evapotranspiration over the Okavango Delta water resources.

Variable thickness transient ground-water flow model. Volume 1. Formulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reisenauer, A.E.

1979-12-01

Mathematical formulation for the variable thickness transient (VTT) model of an aquifer system is presented. The basic assumptions are described. Specific data requirements for the physical parameters are discussed. The boundary definitions and solution techniques of the numerical formulation of the system of equations are presented.

Transient Response of a PEM Fuel Cell Representing Variable Load for a Moving Vehicle on Urban Roads

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

Three-dimensional numerical simulation of transient response of a Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) fuel cell subjected to a variable load is developed. The model parameters are typical of experimental cell for a 10-cm2 reactive area with serpentine...

Responses of chemical erosion rates to transient perturbations in physical erosion rates, and implications for relationships between chemical and physical erosion rates in regolith-mantled hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, Ken L.; West, Nicole

2017-09-01

Understanding the relationship between chemical erosion rates (W) and physical erosion rates (E) is of wide interest due to their roles in driving landscape evolution, supplying nutrients to soils and streams, and modulating the global carbon cycle. Measured relationships between W and E vary around the globe, with some regions exhibiting positive correlations between W and E, some negative correlations, and others no correlation within uncertainty. Here we use a numerical model for mineral weathering in well-mixed ridgetop regolith to explore how complex W- E relationships can be generated by simple transient perturbations in E. We show that a Gaussian perturbation in E can produce positive or negative responses in W, and can result in a variety of hysteresis loops - clockwise, counterclockwise, or figure-eight - in plots of W against E. The nature of the transient response depends on the shape of the steady-state W- E relationship, which is set by regolith mineralogy, and the ratio of E to the maximum possible regolith production rate. The response time of W is controlled by the response time of soluble mineral concentrations at low E, where soluble mineral concentrations are low, and by the response time of regolith thickness at high E, where regolith thickness is low. These complex W- E relationships arise in the absence of variations in climate and lithology, which suggests that transients may account for some of the observed differences in W- E relationships among field sites, even among sites that share the same climate and lithology.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D.

2017-12-01

Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land-atmosphere feedback strengths.

Oceanic influence on seasonal malaria outbreaks over Senegal and Sahel. Predictability using S4CAST model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Deme, Abdoulaye; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Suárez-Moreno, Roberto; Cisse, Moustapha; Ndione, Jacques-André; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

2014-05-01

Senegal and, in general, West African regions are affected by important outbreaks of diseases with destructive consequences for human population, livestock and country's economy. The vector-borne diseases such as mainly malaria, Rift Valley Fever and dengue are affected by the interanual to decadal variability of climate. Analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters and associated oceanic patterns is important in order to assess the climate impact on malaria transmission. In this study, the approach developed to study the malaria-climate link is predefined by the QWeCI project (Quantifying Weather and Climate Impacts on Health in Developing Countries). Preliminary observations and simulations results over Senegal Ferlo region, confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate parameters such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity; and a lag of one to two months between the maximum of malaria and the maximum of climate parameters as rainfall is observed. As climate variables are able to be predicted from oceanic SST variability in remote regions, this study explores seasonal predictability of malaria incidence outbreaks from previous sea surface temperatures conditions in different ocean basins. We have found causal or coincident relationship between El Niño and malaria parameters by coupling LMM UNILIV malaria model and S4CAST statistiscal model with the aim of predicting the malaria parameters with more than 6 months in advance. In particular, El Niño is linked to an important decrease of the number of mosquitoes and the malaria incidence. Results from this research, after assessing the seasonal malaria parameters, are expected to be useful for decision makers to better access to climate forecasts and application on health in the framework of rolling back malaria transmission.

The Shape of Things to Come: Estimating Northern-Hemisphere (NH) Transient Climate Response Through Hindcasting and Forecasting the Frequency Distribution of Earth's NH Land Temperature Anomalies for the Period 1951-2071

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leclerc, D. F.

2016-12-01

Northern-hemisphere (NH) heatwaves, during which temperatures rise 5 standard deviations (SD), sigma, above the historical mean temperature, mu, are becoming frequent; these events skew temperature anomaly (delta T) profiles towards extreme values. Although general extreme value (GEV) distributions have modeled precipitation data, their application to temperatures have met with limited success. This work presents a modified three-parameter (mu, sigma and tau (skew)) Exponential-Gaussian (eGd) model that hindcasts decadal NH land winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) delta Ts from 1951 to 2011, and forecasts profiles for a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2061-2071. We accessed 12 numerical binned (0.05 °C/bin) z-scored NH decadal datasets (posted online until August 2015) from the publicly available website http://www.columbia.edu/ mhs119/PerceptionsAndDice/ mentioned in Hansen et al, PNAS 109 E2415-E2423 (2012) and stated to be in the public domain. No pre-processing was done. Parameters were calculated for the 12 NH datasets pasted into Microsoft Excel™ through the method of moments for 1-tail distributions and through the BEST deconvolution program described by Pommé and Marroyo, Applied Radiation and Isotopes 96 148-153 (2015) for 2-tail distributions. We used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), residual sum of squares (RSS) and F-test to find optimal parameter values. Calculated 1st (= sigma + tau) and 2nd (= sigma2 + tau2) moments were found to be within 0.5% of observed values. Land delta Ts were recovered from the z-score values by multiplying the winter data by its SD (1.2 °C) and likewise the summer data by 0.6 °C. Results were all within 0.05 °C of 10-year averages from the GHCNv3 NH land dataset. Assuming BAU (increases from 2.1 to 2.6 ppm/y CO2) and using temperature rises of 0.27 °C and 0.35 °C per decade, for summer and winter, respectively, and forecasting to 2071, we obtain for the transient climate response for doubled CO2 (560 ppm CO2) mean delta Ts of 2.39 °C for summer and 2.97 °C for NH winter, thereby widely missing the agreed-to 2 °C international target which will be reached around 2040 @ 465 ppm CO2. In summary, barring volcanic eruptions and/or El Niño events, winter delta Ts will exceed 6 °C over 5% of land area, whereas in summer delta Ts will surpass 3.6 °C over 23% of same, both at the 5 sigma level.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

Assessing changes in drought characteristics with standardized indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Najac, Julien; Martin, Eric; Franchistéguy, Laurent; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

2010-05-01

Standardized drought indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) are more and more frequently adopted for drought reconstruction, monitoring and forecasting, and the SPI has been recently recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to characterize meteorological droughts. Such indices are based on the statistical distribution of a hydrometeorological variable (e.g., precipitation) in a given reference climate, and a drought event is defined as a period with continuously negative index values. Because of the way these indices are constructed, some issues may arise when using them in a non-stationnary climate. This work thus aims at highlighting such issues and demonstrating the different ways these indices may - or may not - be applied and interpreted in the context of an anthropogenic climate change. Three major points are detailed through examples taken from both a high-resolution gridded reanalysis dataset over France and transient projections from the ARPEGE general circulation model downscaled over France. The first point deals with the choice of the reference climate, and more specifically its type (from observations/reanalysis or from present-day modelled climate) and its record period. Second, the interpretation of actual changes are closely linked with the type of the selected drought feature over a future period: mean index value, under-threshold frequency, or drought event characteristics (number, mean duration and magnitude, seasonality, etc.). Finally, applicable approaches as well as related uncertainties depend on the availability of data from a future climate, whether in the form of a fully transient time series from present-day or only a future time slice. The projected evolution of drought characteristics under climate change must inform present decisions on long-term water resources planning. An assessment of changes in drought characteristics should therefore provide water managers with appropriate information that can help building effective adaptation strategies. This work thus aims at showing the potential of standardized indices to describe changes in drought characteristics, but also possible pitfalls and potentially misleading interpretations.

Reconstruction of the Eemian climate using a fully coupled Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Huybrechts, Philippe

2017-04-01

Climate of the Last Interglacial (LIG) between ca. 130 and 115 kyr BP is thought to be a good analogue for future climate warming. Though the driving mechanisms of the past and current climate evolution differ, analysis of the LIG climate may provide important insights for projections of future environmental changes. We do not know properly what was spatial distribution and magnitude of surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies with respect to present. Sparse proxy data are attributed mostly to the continental margins, internal areas of ice sheets and particular regions of the World Ocean. Combining mathematical modeling and indirect evidence can help to identify driving mechanisms and feed-backs which formed climatic conditions of the LIG. In order to reproduce the LIG climate, we carried out transient numerical experiments using a fully coupled Earth System Model (ESM) consisting of an AO GCM, which includes decription of the biosphere, atmospheric and oceanic chemistry ets. (INMCM), developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) and the models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrISM and AISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). Though the newest version of the INMCM has rather high spatial resolution, it canot be used in long transient numerical experimemts because of high computational demand. Coupling of the GrISM and AISM to the low resolution version of the INMCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmosphere and the ocean components of the ESM (spatial resolution 5˚×4˚, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 6 min. temporal resolution; 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block; 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution in the GrISM and AISM). We apply two different coupling strategies. AISM is incorporated into the ESM via using procedures of resampling and interpolation of the input fields of annually averaged air surface temperatures and precipitation fields generated by the INMCM. To provide interactive coupling of the INMCM and the GrISM, we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between sub-models. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland and calculates annual surface mass balance (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM). Orbital parameters of the LIG were set with 1 kyr step with further interpolation to 100 years. Assuming concentrations of greenhouse gases during the LIG were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. Climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to follow changes in orbital forcing. AISM and GrISM were asynchronously coupled to sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained fields of deviations of air surface temperature from preindustrial values correspond in general to the estimates made in earlier studies. Evaluated contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to the global sea level rise (approximately 2 m) supports the newest estimates based on model results and proxy data analysis.

Emergent reorganization of an evolving experimental landscape under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Reinhardt, L.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2014-12-01

Understanding landscape re-organization under changing climatic forcing is fundamental to advancing our understanding of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions, developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations, and interpreting the stratigraphic record for past climates by incorporating possible regime shifts. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (for a constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. By studying the space-time structure of the individual erosional and depositional events in terms of their size, location, clustering, and total volume we report complex space-time patterns of change which are scale-dependent and bounded by the river network topology. At the same time, the river network topology itself adjusts at smaller scales, with new channels added to accommodate increased hillslope erosional transport, further adjusting the landscape. Some new ideas related to landscape variability and entropy evolution at different scales during steady and transient states and the possibility of analyzing the self-organization with Optimal Mass Transport (OMT) metrics to infer possible underlying "optimality" principles governing the re-organization will also be presented.

Controlling transient chaos in deterministic flows with applications to electrical power systems and ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhamala, Mukeshwar; Lai, Ying-Cheng

1999-02-01

Transient chaos is a common phenomenon in nonlinear dynamics of many physical, biological, and engineering systems. In applications it is often desirable to maintain sustained chaos even in parameter regimes of transient chaos. We address how to sustain transient chaos in deterministic flows. We utilize a simple and practical method, based on extracting the fundamental dynamics from time series, to maintain chaos. The method can result in control of trajectories from almost all initial conditions in the original basin of the chaotic attractor from which transient chaos is created. We apply our method to three problems: (1) voltage collapse in electrical power systems, (2) species preservation in ecology, and (3) elimination of undesirable bursting behavior in a chemical reaction system.

Modeling Elevation and Aspect Controls on Emerging Ecohydrologic Processes and Ecosystem Patterns Using the Component-based Landlab Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nudurupati, S. S.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Tucker, G. E.; Hutton, E. W. H.

2014-12-01

Topography plays a commanding role on the organization of ecohydrologic processes and resulting vegetation patterns. In southwestern United States, climate conditions lead to terrain aspect- and elevation-controlled ecosystems, with mesic north-facing and xeric south-facing vegetation types; and changes in biodiversity as a function of elevation from shrublands in low desert elevations, to mixed grass/shrublands in mid elevations, and forests at high elevations and ridge tops. These observed patterns have been attributed to differences in topography-mediated local soil moisture availability, micro-climatology, and life history processes of plants that control chances of plant establishment and survival. While ecohydrologic models represent local vegetation dynamics in sufficient detail up to sub-hourly time scales, plant life history and competition for space and resources has not been adequately represented in models. In this study we develop an ecohydrologic cellular automata model within the Landlab component-based modeling framework. This model couples local vegetation dynamics (biomass production, death) and plant establishment and competition processes for resources and space. This model is used to study the vegetation organization in a semiarid New Mexico catchment where elevation and hillslope aspect play a defining role on plant types. Processes that lead to observed plant types across the landscape are examined by initializing the domain with randomly assigned plant types and systematically changing model parameters that couple plant response with soil moisture dynamics. Climate perturbation experiments are conducted to examine the plant response in space and time. Understanding the inherently transient ecohydrologic systems is critical to improve predictions of climate change impacts on ecosystems.

Estimating Convection Parameters in the GFDL CM2.1 Model Using Ensemble Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Lv; Zhu, Jiang; Zhang, Xuefeng; Wu, Xinrong; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Xiaopei

2018-04-01

Parametric uncertainty in convection parameterization is one major source of model errors that cause model climate drift. Convection parameter tuning has been widely studied in atmospheric models to help mitigate the problem. However, in a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM), convection parameters which impact the ocean as well as the climate simulation may have different optimal values. This study explores the possibility of estimating convection parameters with an ensemble coupled data assimilation method in a CGCM. Impacts of the convection parameter estimation on climate analysis and forecast are analyzed. In a twin experiment framework, five convection parameters in the GFDL coupled model CM2.1 are estimated individually and simultaneously under both perfect and imperfect model regimes. Results show that the ensemble data assimilation method can help reduce the bias in convection parameters. With estimated convection parameters, the analyses and forecasts for both the atmosphere and the ocean are generally improved. It is also found that information in low latitudes is relatively more important for estimating convection parameters. This study further suggests that when important parameters in appropriate physical parameterizations are identified, incorporating their estimation into traditional ensemble data assimilation procedure could improve the final analysis and climate prediction.

Analysis of the passive stabilization of the long duration exposure facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siegel, S. H.; Vishwanath, N. S.

1977-01-01

The nominal Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) configurations and the anticipated orbit parameters are presented. A linear steady state analysis was performed using these parameters. The effects of orbit eccentricity, solar pressure, aerodynamic pressure, magnetic dipole, and the magnetically anchored rate damper were evaluated to determine the configuration sensitivity to variations in these parameters. The worst case conditions for steady state errors were identified, and the performance capability calculated. Garber instability bounds were evaluated for the range of configuration and damping coefficients under consideration. The transient damping capabilities of the damper were examined, and the time constant as a function of damping coefficient and spacecraft moment of inertia determined. The capture capabilities of the damper were calculated, and the results combined with steady state, transient, and Garber instability analyses to select damper design parameters.

Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-12-01

With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning amore » wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.« less

UNSUPERVISED TRANSIENT LIGHT CURVE ANALYSIS VIA HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN INFERENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanders, N. E.; Soderberg, A. M.; Betancourt, M., E-mail: nsanders@cfa.harvard.edu

2015-02-10

Historically, light curve studies of supernovae (SNe) and other transient classes have focused on individual objects with copious and high signal-to-noise observations. In the nascent era of wide field transient searches, objects with detailed observations are decreasing as a fraction of the overall known SN population, and this strategy sacrifices the majority of the information contained in the data about the underlying population of transients. A population level modeling approach, simultaneously fitting all available observations of objects in a transient sub-class of interest, fully mines the data to infer the properties of the population and avoids certain systematic biases. Wemore » present a novel hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for population level modeling of transient light curves, and discuss its implementation using an efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. As a test case, we apply this model to the Type IIP SN sample from the Pan-STARRS1 Medium Deep Survey, consisting of 18,837 photometric observations of 76 SNe, corresponding to a joint posterior distribution with 9176 parameters under our model. Our hierarchical model fits provide improved constraints on light curve parameters relevant to the physical properties of their progenitor stars relative to modeling individual light curves alone. Moreover, we directly evaluate the probability for occurrence rates of unseen light curve characteristics from the model hyperparameters, addressing observational biases in survey methodology. We view this modeling framework as an unsupervised machine learning technique with the ability to maximize scientific returns from data to be collected by future wide field transient searches like LSST.« less

Optimization of conditions for transient Agrobacterium-mediated gene expression assays in Arabidopsis.

PubMed

Kim, Mi Jung; Baek, Kon; Park, Chung-Mo

2009-08-01

Transient genetic transformation of plant organs is an indispensable way of studying gene function in plants. This study was aimed to develop an optimized system for transient Agrobacterium-mediated transformation of the Arabidopsis leaves. The beta-glucuronidase (GUS) reporter gene was employed to evaluate growth and biochemical parameters that influence the levels of transient expression. The effects of plant culture conditions, Agrobacterial genetic backgrounds, densities of Agrobacterial cell suspensions, and of several detergents were analyzed. We found that optimization of plant culture conditions is the most critical factor among the parameters analyzed. Higher levels of transient expression were observed in plants grown under short day conditions (SDs) than in plants grown under long day conditions (LDs). Furthermore, incubation of the plants under SDs at high relative humidity (85-90%) for 24 h after infiltration greatly improved the levels of transient expression. Under the optimized culture conditions, expression of the reporter gene reached the peak 3 days after infiltration and was rapidly decreased after the peak. Among the five Agrobacterial strains examined, LAB4404 produced the highest levels of expression. We also examined the effects of detergents, including Triton X-100, Tween-20, and Silwet L-77. Supplementation of the infiltration media either with 0.01% Triton X-100 or 0.01% Tween-20 improved the levels of expression by approximately 1.6-fold. Our observations indicate that transient transformation of the Arabidopsis leaves in the infiltration media supplemented with 0.01% Triton X-100 and incubation of the infiltrated plants under SDs at high relative humidity are necessary for maximal levels of expression.

Investigations of the Controlling Factors for Air Emissions Associated With the Dredging of Indiana Harbor and Canal (IHC) and CDF Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-01

concepts of a transient toxic constituent loss and transport model for both solids and chemical incorporating a kinetic approach rather than equilibrium...to air. A transient kinetic mass-transfer model was applied to the data and it was found that the TSS level was the most critical parameter for...measured (Thibodeaux et al. 2004). The transient behavior followed the expected theory of the mass-transfer kinetic, but the conventional LEA model

Climate warming due to increasing atmospheric CO2 - Simulations with a multilayer coupled atmosphere-ocean seasonal energy balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Peng; Chou, Ming-Dah; Arking, Albert

1987-01-01

The transient response of the climate to increasing CO2 is studied using a modified version of the multilayer energy balance model of Peng et al. (1982). The main characteristics of the model are described. Latitudinal and seasonal distributions of planetary albedo, latitude-time distributions of zonal mean temperatures, and latitudinal distributions of evaporation, water vapor transport, and snow cover generated from the model and derived from actual observations are analyzed and compared. It is observed that in response to an atmospheric doubling of CO2, the model reaches within 1/e of the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature in 9-35 years for the probable range of vertical heat diffusivity in the ocean. For CO2 increases projected by the National Research Council (1983), the model's transient response in annually and globally averaged surface temperatures is 60-75 percent of the corresponding equilibrium response, and the disequilibrium increases with increasing heat diffusivity of the ocean.

Long-term human response to uncertain environmental conditions in the Andes

PubMed Central

Dillehay, Tom D.; Kolata, Alan L.

2004-01-01

Human interaction with the physical environment has increasingly transformed Earth-system processes. Reciprocally, climate anomalies and other processes of environmental change of natural and anthropogenic origin have been affecting, and often disrupting, societies throughout history. Transient impact events, despite their brevity, can have significant long-term impact on society, particularly if they occur in the context of ongoing, protracted environmental change. Major climate events can affect human activities in critical conjunctures that shape particular trajectories of social development. Here we report variable human responses to major environmental events in the Andes with a particular emphasis on the period from anno Domini 500–1500 on the desert north coast of Perú. We show that preindustrial agrarian societies implemented distinct forms of anticipatory response to environmental change and uncertainty. We conclude that innovations in production strategies and agricultural infrastructures in these indigenous societies reflect differential social response to both transient (El Niño–Southern Oscillation events) and protracted (desertification) environmental change. PMID:15024122

Malaria and global change: Insights, uncertainties and possible surprises

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin, P.H.; Steel, A.

Malaria may change with global change. Indeed, global change may affect malaria risk and malaria epidemiology. Malaria risk may change in response to a greenhouse warming; malaria epidemiology, in response to the social, economic, and political developments which a greenhouse warming may trigger. To date, malaria receptivity and epidemiology futures have been explored within the context of equilibrium studies. Equilibrium studies of climate change postulate an equilibrium present climate (the starting point) and a doubled-carbon dioxide climate (the end point), simulate conditions in both instances, and compare the two. What happens while climate changes, i.e., between the starting point andmore » the end point, is ignored. The present paper focuses on malaria receptivity and addresses what equilibrium studies miss, namely transient malaria dynamics.« less

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Tharp, M Lynn; Lannom, Karen O.

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the fivemore » ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.« less

Deglacial Evolution of Atlantic Mid-Depth and Intermediate-Depth Water Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppo, D.; Gebbie, G.; Huang, K. F.; Guo, W.; Schmittner, A.; Liu, Z.; Curry, W. B.

2014-12-01

Deglacial variations in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) feature prominently in hypotheses of deglacial climate variability and atmospheric CO2rise. However, there is lingering uncertainty in the glacial deepwater mass configuration (e.g. Gebbie, 2014) and deglacial AMOC variability is even more poorly understood. For example, the deglacial evolution of the contribution of northern and southern source waters to the middle and intermediate depths of the Atlantic is still vigorously debated. Here, we evaluate the evolution of subsurface Atlantic ventilation, emphasizing middle and intermediate depths, by comparing new and published records of water mass variability to output from transient model simulations designed to provide insight into the climatic and oceanographic effects of a dramatic reduction in the AMOC, such as apparently occurred during Heinrich Stadial 1 (Liu et al., 2009; Schmittner and Lund, 2014). Gebbie, G. (2014), How much did Glacial North Atlantic Water shoal? Paleoceanography, 29, 190-209, doi: 10.1002/2013PA002557. Liu, Z., B. Otto-Bliesner, F. He, E. Brady, R. Thomas, P. U. Clark, A. E. Carlson, J. Lynch-Stieglitz, W. Curry, E. Brook, D. Erickson, R. Jacob, J. Kutzbach, J., and J. Chen (2009), Transient climate simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bølling-Allerød warming, Science, 325, 310-314. Schmittner, A., and Lund, D. C. (submitted), Carbon Isotopes Support Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline as a Trigger for Early Deglacial CO2 rise Climate of the Past Discussions.

Implementation Targets for the Paris Climate Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, B.; Hope, A. P.; Tribett, W. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Canty, T. P.

2016-12-01

We provide an overview of reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) needed to achieve either the target (1.5 °C warming) or upper limit (2.0 °C warming) of the Paris Climate Agreement. We will show how much energy must be produced, either by renewables that do not emit significant levels of atmospheric GHGs or via carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) coupled to fossil fuel power plants, to meet forecast global energy demand out to 2060. These projections will be based on two modeling frameworks: our empirical model of global climate (EM-GC) and the CMIP 5 GCMs used throughout IPCC (2013). For each framework, we will show estimates of transient climate response to cumulative emission of carbon to place limits on future emission of CO2 via the combustion of fossil fuel. We will also quantify the impact of future atmospheric CH4 on achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

Transient analysis of an adaptive system for optimization of design parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayard, D. S.

1992-01-01

Averaging methods are applied to analyzing and optimizing the transient response associated with the direct adaptive control of an oscillatory second-order minimum-phase system. The analytical design methods developed for a second-order plant can be applied with some approximation to a MIMO flexible structure having a single dominant mode.

Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

2015-01-01

Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

Perturbation of longitudinal relaxation rate in rotating frame (PLRF) analysis for quantification of chemical exchange saturation transfer signal in a transient state.

PubMed

Wang, Yi; Zhang, Yaoyu; Zhao, Xuna; Wu, Bing; Gao, Jia-Hong

2017-11-01

To develop a novel analytical method for quantification of chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) in the transient state. The proposed method aims to reduce the effects of non-chemical-exchange (non-CE) parameters on the CEST signal, emphasizing the effect of chemical exchange. The difference in the longitudinal relaxation rate in the rotating frame ( ΔR1ρ) was calculated based on perturbation of the Z-value by R1ρ, and a saturation-pulse-amplitude-compensated exchange-dependent relaxation rate (SPACER) was determined with a high-exchange-rate approximation. In both phantom and human subject experiments, MTRasym (representative of the traditional CEST index), ΔR1ρ, and SPACER were measured, evaluated, and compared by altering the non-CE parameters in a transient-state continuous-wave CEST sequence. In line with the theoretical expectation, our experimental data demonstrate that the effects of the non-CE parameters can be more effectively reduced using the proposed indices (  ΔR1ρ and SPACER) than using the traditional CEST index ( MTRasym). The proposed method allows for the chemical exchange weight to be better emphasized in the transient-state CEST signal, which is beneficial, in practice, for quantifying the CEST signal. Magn Reson Med 78:1711-1723, 2017. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

1D Cole-Cole inversion of TEM transients influenced by induced polarization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, Marc; Tezkan, Bülent

2017-03-01

Effects of induced polarization (IP) can have an impact on time-domain electromagnetic measurements (TEM) and may lead to sign reversals in the recorded transients. To study these IP effects on TEM data, a new 1D inversion algorithm was developed for both, the central-loop and the separate-loop TEM configurations using the Cole-Cole relaxation model. 1D forward calculations for a homogeneous half-space were conducted with the aim of analyzing the impacts of the Cole-Cole parameters on TEM transients with respect to possible sign reversals. The forward modelings showed that the variation of different parameters have comparable effects on the TEM transients. This leads to an increasing number of equivalent models as a result of inversion calculations. Subsequently, 1D inversions of synthetic data were performed to study the potentials and limitations of the algorithm regarding the resolution of the Cole-Cole parameters. In order to achieve optimal inversion results, it was essential to error-weight the data points in the direct vicinity of sign reversals. The obtained findings were eventually adopted on the inversion of real field data which contained considerable IP signatures such as sign reversals. One field data set was recorded at the Nakyn kimberlite field in Western Yakutiya, Russia, in the central-loop configuration. Another field data set originates from a waste site in Cologne, Germany, and was measured utilizing the separate-loop configuration.

A FRAMEWORK FOR INTERPRETING FAST RADIO TRANSIENTS SEARCH EXPERIMENTS: APPLICATION TO THE V-FASTR EXPERIMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trott, Cathryn M.; Tingay, Steven J.; Wayth, Randall B.

2013-04-10

We define a framework for determining constraints on the detection rate of fast transient events from a population of underlying sources, with a view to incorporate beam shape, frequency effects, scattering effects, and detection efficiency into the metric. We then demonstrate a method for combining independent data sets into a single event rate constraint diagram, using a probabilistic approach to the limits on parameter space. We apply this new framework to present the latest results from the V-FASTR experiment, a commensal fast transients search using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). In the 20 cm band, V-FASTR now has themore » ability to probe the regions of parameter space of importance for the observed Lorimer and Keane fast radio transient candidates by combining the information from observations with differing bandwidths, and properly accounting for the source dispersion measure, VLBA antenna beam shape, experiment time sampling, and stochastic nature of events. We then apply the framework to combine the results of the V-FASTR and Allen Telescope Array Fly's Eye experiments, demonstrating their complementarity. Expectations for fast transients experiments for the SKA Phase I dish array are then computed, and the impact of large differential bandwidths is discussed.« less

Quantifying the Impact of Tropospheric Ozone on Crops Productivity at regional scale using JULES-crop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, F.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. It is causing significant crop production losses. Currently, O3 concentrations are projected to increase globally, which could have a significant impact on food security. The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) is used here to quantify the impacts of tropospheric O3 on crop production at the regional scale until 2100. We evaluate JULES-crop against the Soybean Free-Air-Concentration-Enrichment (SoyFACE) experiment in Illinois, USA. Experimental data from SoyFACE and various literature sources is used to calibrate the parameters for soybean and ozone damage parameters in soybean in JULES-crop. The calibrated model is then applied for a transient factorial set of JULES-crop simulations over 1960-2005. Simulated yield changes are attributed to individual environmental drivers, CO2, O3 and climate change, across regions and for different crops. A mixed scenario of RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climatology and ozone are simulated to explore the implication of policy. The overall findings are that regions with high ozone concentration such as China and India suffer the most from ozone damage, soybean is more sensitive to O3 than other crops. JULES-crop predicts CO2 fertilisation would increase the productivity of vegetation. This effect, however, is masked by the negative impacts of tropospheric O3. Using data from FAO and JULES-crop estimated that ozone damage cost around 55.4 Billion USD per year on soybean. Irrigation improves the simulation of rice only, and it increases the relative ozone damage because drought can reduce the ozone from entering the plant stomata. RCP 8.5 scenario results in a high yield for all crops mainly due to the CO2 fertilisation effect. Mixed climate scenarios simulations suggest that RCP 8.5 CO2 concentration and RCP 2.6 O3 concentration result in the highest yield. Further works such as more crop FACE-O3 experiments and more Crop functional types in JULES are necessary. The model will thus contribute to a complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on food production. JULES will be later coupled with the Unified Model to quantify the impact of tropospheric O3 on crops productivity including feedbacks between the land-surface, atmospheric chemistry and climate change.

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD

PubMed Central

Lorenz, David J.; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L.; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Williams, John W.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950–2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850–2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity. PMID:27377537

Downscaled and debiased climate simulations for North America from 21,000 years ago to 2100AD.

PubMed

Lorenz, David J; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Blois, Jessica L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Williams, John W

2016-07-05

Increasingly, ecological modellers are integrating paleodata with future projections to understand climate-driven biodiversity dynamics from the past through the current century. Climate simulations from earth system models are necessary to this effort, but must be debiased and downscaled before they can be used by ecological models. Downscaling methods and observational baselines vary among researchers, which produces confounding biases among downscaled climate simulations. We present unified datasets of debiased and downscaled climate simulations for North America from 21 ka BP to 2100AD, at 0.5° spatial resolution. Temporal resolution is decadal averages of monthly data until 1950AD, average climates for 1950-2005 AD, and monthly data from 2010 to 2100AD, with decadal averages also provided. This downscaling includes two transient paleoclimatic simulations and 12 climate models for the IPCC AR5 (CMIP5) historical (1850-2005), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 21st-century scenarios. Climate variables include primary variables and derived bioclimatic variables. These datasets provide a common set of climate simulations suitable for seamlessly modelling the effects of past and future climate change on species distributions and diversity.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; ...

2017-04-24

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.

2015-12-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Ocean Heat Uptake Slows 21st Century Surface Warming Driven by Extratropical Cloud Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, W.; Maroon, E.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Kay, J. E.

2017-12-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the warming in response to instantaneously doubled CO2, has long been used to compare climate models. In many models, ECS is well correlated with warming produced by transient forcing experiments. Modifications to cloud phase at high latitudes in a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), produce a large increase in ECS (1.5 K) via extratropical cloud feedbacks. However, only a small surface warming increase occurs in a realistic 21st century simulation including a full-depth dynamic ocean and the "business as usual" RCP8.5 emissions scenario. In fact, the increase in surface warming is only barely above the internal variability-generated range in the CESM Large Ensemble. The small change in 21st century warming is attributed to subpolar ocean heat uptake in both hemispheres. In the Southern Ocean, the mean-state circulation takes up heat while in the North Atlantic a slowdown in circulation acts as a feedback to slow surface warming. These results show the importance of subpolar ocean heat uptake in controlling the pace of warming and demonstrate that ECS cannot be used to reliably infer transient warming when it is driven by extratropical feedbacks.

Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979-2011: Insights from a High Resolution Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yanhong; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Zhang, Yongxin

2015-05-15

Net precipitation (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P-E) changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibet Plateau (TP) and compared to the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) product. The high resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improved P-E change in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence, the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P-E changes. The mechanism behind the P-E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence intomore » thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P-E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P-E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis revealed the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P-E changes in the TP.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-04-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Erick; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

An integrated platform for simultaneous multi-well field potential recording and Fura-2-based calcium transient ratiometry in human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC)-derived cardiomyocytes.

PubMed

Rast, Georg; Weber, Jürgen; Disch, Christoph; Schuck, Elmar; Ittrich, Carina; Guth, Brian D

2015-01-01

Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes are available from various sources and they are being evaluated for safety testing. Several platforms are available offering different assay principles and read-out parameters: patch-clamp and field potential recording, imaging or photometry, impedance measurement, and recording of contractile force. Routine use will establish which assay principle and which parameters best serve the intended purpose. We introduce a combination of field potential recording and calcium ratiometry from spontaneously beating cardiomyocytes as a novel assay providing a complementary read-out parameter set. Field potential recording is performed using a commercial multi-well multi-electrode array platform. Calcium ratiometry is performed using a fiber optic illumination and silicon avalanche photodetectors. Data condensation and statistical analysis are designed to enable statistical inference of differences and equivalence with regard to a solvent control. Simultaneous recording of field potentials and calcium transients from spontaneously beating monolayers was done in a nine-well format. Calcium channel blockers (e.g. nifedipine) and a blocker of calcium store release (ryanodine) can be recognized and discriminated based on the calcium transient signal. An agonist of L-type calcium channels, FPL 64176, increased and prolonged the calcium transient, whereas BAY K 8644, another L-type calcium channel agonist, had no effect. Both FPL 64176 and various calcium channel antagonists have chronotropic effects, which can be discriminated from typical "chronotropic" compounds, like (±)isoprenaline (positive) and arecaidine propargyl ester (negative), based on their effects on the calcium transient. Despite technical limitations in temporal resolution and exact matching of composite calcium transient with the field potential of a subset of cells, the combined recording platform enables a refined interpretation of the field potential recording and a more reliable identification of drug effects on calcium handling. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Glacial meltwater cooling of the Gulf of Mexico - GCM implications for Holocene and present-day climates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Maasch, Kirk A.; Saltzman, Barry

1989-01-01

The NCAR Community Climate Model GCM is presently used to investigate the possible effects on regional and hemispheric climates of reduced SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico, in view of delta-O-18 records and terrestrial evidence for at least two major glacial meltwater discharges after the last glacial maximum. Three numerical experiments have been conducted with imposed gulfwide SST coolings of 3, 6, and 12 C; in all cases, significant reductions arise in the North Atlantic storm-track intensity, together with a strong decrease in transient eddy water vapor transport out of the Gulf of Mexico. Other statistically significant changes occur across the Northern Hemisphere.

Process model simulations of the divergence effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Hughes, M. K.; Kaplan, A.; Vaganov, E. A.

2007-12-01

We explore the extent to which the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model of conifer tree-ring formation can explain evidence for changing relationships between climate and tree growth over recent decades. The VS model is driven by daily environmental forcing (temperature, soil moisture, and solar radiation), and simulates tree-ring growth cell-by-cell as a function of the most limiting environmental control. This simplified representation of tree physiology allows us to examine using a selection of case studies whether instances of divergence may be explained in terms of changes in limiting environmental dependencies or transient climate change. Identification of model-data differences permits further exploration of the effects of tree-ring standardization, atmospheric composition, and additional non-climatic factors.

Observations on autoregulation in skeletal muscle - The effects of arterial hypoxia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pohost, G. M.; Newell, J. B.; Hamlin, N. P.; Powell, W. J., Jr.

1976-01-01

An experimental study was carried out on 25 mongrel dogs of both sexes to re-evaluate autoregulation of blood flow in skeletal muscle, with particular reference to the steady-state resistance and transient response in muscle blood flow following a square wave increase in arterial perfusion pressure and to the examination of the effect of arterial hypoxia on this transient response. The data emphasize the importance of considering the transient changes in blood flow in evaluating the autoregulatory response in skeletal muscle. For quantification purposes, a parameter termed alpha is introduced which represents the ratio between the increase in blood flow from baseline to peak and the return of blood flow from the peak to the new steady-state. Such a quantification of the transient response in flow with step increases in perfusion pressure demonstrates substantial transient responses under conditions of normal oxygenation and progressive attenuation of flow transients with increasing hypoxia.

Terrestrial cooling and solar variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agee, E. M.

1982-01-01

Observational evidence from surface temperature records is presented and discussed which suggests a significant cooling trend over the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to the present. This cooling trend is associated with an increase of the latitudinal gradient of temperature and the lapse rate, as predicted by climate models with decreased solar input and feedback mechanisms. Evidence suggests that four of these 80- to 100-year cycles of global surface temperature fluctuation may have occurred, and in succession, from 1600 to the present. Interpretation of sunspot activity were used to infer a direct thermal response of terrestrial temperature to solar variability on the time scale of the Gleissberg cycle (90 years, an amplitude of the 11-year cycles). A physical link between the sunspot activity and the solar parameter is hypothesized. Observations of sensible heat flux by stationary planetary waves and transient eddies, as well as general circulation modeling results of these processes, were examined from the viewpoint of the hypothesis of cooling due to reduced insolation.

Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

2013-02-07

According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Alaska Species and Ecoregions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Strickland, Laura E.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2006-01-01

Climate is the primary factor in controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges is only now beginning to be quantified. Preceding volumes of this atlas explored the continental-scale relations between climatic parameters and the distributions of woody plant species across all of the continent of North America. This volume presents similar information for important woody species, groups of species, and ecoregions in more detail for the State of Alaska. For these analyses, we constructed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America from instrumental weather records. We obtained a digital representation of the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion, either from a published source or by digitizing the published distributions ourselves. The presence or absence of each species or ecoregion was then determined for each point on the 25-kilometer grid, thus providing a basis for comparison of the climatic data with the geographic distribution of each species or ecoregion. The relations between climate and these distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form.

The role of glacier changes and threshold definition in the characterisation of future streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tiel, Marit; Teuling, Adriaan J.; Wanders, Niko; Vis, Marc J. P.; Stahl, Kerstin; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Glaciers are essential hydrological reservoirs, storing and releasing water at various timescales. Short-term variability in glacier melt is one of the causes of streamflow droughts, here defined as deficiencies from the flow regime. Streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments have a wide range of interlinked causing factors related to precipitation and temperature on short and long timescales. Climate change affects glacier storage capacity, with resulting consequences for discharge regimes and streamflow drought. Future projections of streamflow drought in glacierised basins can, however, strongly depend on the modelling strategies and analysis approaches applied. Here, we examine the effect of different approaches, concerning the glacier modelling and the drought threshold, on the characterisation of streamflow droughts in glacierised catchments. Streamflow is simulated with the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV-light) model for two case study catchments, the Nigardsbreen catchment in Norway and the Wolverine catchment in Alaska, and two future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Two types of glacier modelling are applied, a constant and dynamic glacier area conceptualisation. Streamflow droughts are identified with the variable threshold level method and their characteristics are compared between two periods, a historical (1975-2004) and future (2071-2100) period. Two existing threshold approaches to define future droughts are employed: (1) the threshold from the historical period; (2) a transient threshold approach, whereby the threshold adapts every year in the future to the changing regimes. Results show that drought characteristics differ among the combinations of glacier area modelling and thresholds. The historical threshold combined with a dynamic glacier area projects extreme increases in drought severity in the future, caused by the regime shift due to a reduction in glacier area. The historical threshold combined with a constant glacier area results in a drastic decrease of the number of droughts. The drought characteristics between future and historical periods are more similar when the transient threshold is used, for both glacier area conceptualisations. With the transient threshold, factors causing future droughts can be analysed. This study revealed the different effects of methodological choices on future streamflow drought projections and it highlights how the options can be used to analyse different aspects of future droughts: the transient threshold for analysing future drought processes, the historical threshold to assess changes between periods, the constant glacier area to analyse the effect of short-term climate variability on droughts and the dynamic glacier area to model more realistic future discharges under climate change.

Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Methane Using Bayesian Constrained Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Errickson, F. C.; Anthoff, D.; Keller, K.

2016-12-01

Social cost estimates of greenhouse gases are important for the design of sound climate policies and are also plagued by uncertainty. One major source of uncertainty stems from the simplified representation of the climate system used in the integrated assessment models that provide these social cost estimates. We explore how uncertainty over the social cost of methane varies with the way physical processes and feedbacks in the methane cycle are modeled by (i) coupling three different methane models to a simple climate model, (ii) using MCMC to perform a Bayesian calibration of the three coupled climate models that simulates direct sampling from the joint posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters, and (iii) producing probabilistic climate projections that are then used to calculate the Social Cost of Methane (SCM) with the DICE and FUND integrated assessment models. We find that including a temperature feedback in the methane cycle acts as an additional constraint during the calibration process and results in a correlation between the tropospheric lifetime of methane and several climate model parameters. This correlation is not seen in the models lacking this feedback. Several of the estimated marginal pdfs of the model parameters also exhibit different distributional shapes and expected values depending on the methane model used. As a result, probabilistic projections of the climate system out to the year 2300 exhibit different levels of uncertainty and magnitudes of warming for each of the three models under an RCP8.5 scenario. We find these differences in climate projections result in differences in the distributions and expected values for our estimates of the SCM. We also examine uncertainty about the SCM by performing a Monte Carlo analysis using a distribution for the climate sensitivity while holding all other climate model parameters constant. Our SCM estimates using the Bayesian calibration are lower and exhibit less uncertainty about extremely high values in the right tail of the distribution compared to the Monte Carlo approach. This finding has important climate policy implications and suggests previous work that accounts for climate model uncertainty by only varying the climate sensitivity parameter may overestimate the SCM.

Regional Climate Sensitivity- and Historical-Based Projections to 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, Raphaël.; Lovejoy, Shaun

2018-05-01

Reliable climate projections at the regional scale are needed in order to evaluate climate change impacts and inform policy. We develop an alternative method for projections based on the transient climate sensitivity (TCS), which relies on a linear relationship between the forced temperature response and the strongly increasing anthropogenic forcing. The TCS is evaluated at the regional scale (5° by 5°), and projections are made accordingly to 2100 using the high and low Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios. We find that there are large spatial discrepancies between the regional TCS from 5 historical data sets and 32 global climate model (GCM) historical runs and furthermore that the global mean GCM TCS is about 15% too high. Given that the GCM Representative Concentration Pathway scenario runs are mostly linear with respect to their (inadequate) TCS, we conclude that historical methods of regional projection are better suited given that they are directly calibrated on the real world (historical) climate.

Methods for developing time-series climate surfaces to drive topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Susong, D.; Marks, D.; Garen, D.

1999-01-01

Topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models can accurately simulate both the development and melting of a seasonal snowcover in the mountain basins. To do this they require time-series climate surfaces of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and thermal radiation. If data are available, these parameters can be adequately estimated at time steps of one to three hours. Unfortunately, climate monitoring in mountain basins is very limited, and the full range of elevations and exposures that affect climate conditions, snow deposition, and melt is seldom sampled. Detailed time-series climate surfaces have been successfully developed using limited data and relatively simple methods. We present a synopsis of the tools and methods used to combine limited data with simple corrections for the topographic controls to generate high temporal resolution time-series images of these climate parameters. Methods used include simulations, elevational gradients, and detrended kriging. The generated climate surfaces are evaluated at points and spatially to determine if they are reasonable approximations of actual conditions. Recommendations are made for the addition of critical parameters and measurement sites into routine monitoring systems in mountain basins.Topographically distributed energy- and water-balance models can accurately simulate both the development and melting of a seasonal snowcover in the mountain basins. To do this they require time-series climate surfaces of air temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and thermal radiation. If data are available, these parameters can be adequately estimated at time steps of one to three hours. Unfortunately, climate monitoring in mountain basins is very limited, and the full range of elevations and exposures that affect climate conditions, snow deposition, and melt is seldom sampled. Detailed time-series climate surfaces have been successfully developed using limited data and relatively simple methods. We present a synopsis of the tools and methods used to combine limited data with simple corrections for the topographic controls to generate high temporal resolution time-series images of these climate parameters. Methods used include simulations, elevational gradients, and detrended kriging. The generated climate surfaces are evaluated at points and spatially to determine if they are reasonable approximations of actual conditions. Recommendations are made for the addition of critical parameters and measurement sites into routine monitoring systems in mountain basins.

Analysis and Sizing for Transient Thermal Heating of Insulated Aerospace Vehicle Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blosser, Max L.

2012-01-01

An analytical solution was derived for the transient response of an insulated structure subjected to a simplified heat pulse. The solution is solely a function of two nondimensional parameters. Simpler functions of these two parameters were developed to approximate the maximum structural temperature over a wide range of parameter values. Techniques were developed to choose constant, effective thermal properties to represent the relevant temperature and pressure-dependent properties for the insulator and structure. A technique was also developed to map a time-varying surface temperature history to an equivalent square heat pulse. Equations were also developed for the minimum mass required to maintain the inner, unheated surface below a specified temperature. In the course of the derivation, two figures of merit were identified. Required insulation masses calculated using the approximate equation were shown to typically agree with finite element results within 10%-20% over the relevant range of parameters studied.

An Analytical Solution for Transient Thermal Response of an Insulated Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blosser, Max L.

2012-01-01

An analytical solution was derived for the transient response of an insulated aerospace vehicle structure subjected to a simplified heat pulse. This simplified problem approximates the thermal response of a thermal protection system of an atmospheric entry vehicle. The exact analytical solution is solely a function of two non-dimensional parameters. A simpler function of these two parameters was developed to approximate the maximum structural temperature over a wide range of parameter values. Techniques were developed to choose constant, effective properties to represent the relevant temperature and pressure-dependent properties for the insulator and structure. A technique was also developed to map a time-varying surface temperature history to an equivalent square heat pulse. Using these techniques, the maximum structural temperature rise was calculated using the analytical solutions and shown to typically agree with finite element simulations within 10 to 20 percent over the relevant range of parameters studied.

Hydro turbine governor’s power control of hydroelectric unit with sloping ceiling tailrace tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Liang; Wu, Changli; Tang, Weiping

2018-02-01

The primary frequency regulation and load regulation transient process when the hydro turbine governor is under the power mode of hydropower unit with sloping ceiling tailrace are analysed by field test and numerical simulation in this paper. A simulation method based on “three-zone model” to simulate small fluctuation transient process of the sloping ceiling tailrace is proposed. The simulation model of hydraulic turbine governor power mode is established by governor’s PLC program identification and parameter measurement, and the simulation model is verified by the test. The slow-fast-slow “three-stage regulation” method which can improve the dynamic quality of hydro turbine governor power mode is proposed. The power regulation strategy and parameters are optimized by numerical simulation, the performance of primary frequency regulation and load regulation transient process when the hydro turbine governor is under power mode are improved significantly.

Awakening the BALROG: BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgess, J. Michael; Yu, Hoi-Fung; Greiner, Jochen; Mortlock, Daniel J.

2018-05-01

The accurate spatial location of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is crucial for both accurately characterizing their spectra and follow-up observations by other instruments. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has the largest field of view for detecting GRBs as it views the entire unocculted sky, but as a non-imaging instrument it relies on the relative count rates observed in each of its 14 detectors to localize transients. Improving its ability to accurately locate GRBs and other transients is vital to the paradigm of multimessenger astronomy, including the electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational wave signals. Here we present the BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs (BALROG) method for localizing and characterizing GBM transients. Our approach eliminates the systematics of previous approaches by simultaneously fitting for the location and spectrum of a source. It also correctly incorporates the uncertainties in the location of a transient into the spectral parameters and produces reliable positional uncertainties for both well-localized sources and those for which the GBM data cannot effectively constrain the position. While computationally expensive, BALROG can be implemented to enable quick follow-up of all GBM transient signals. Also, we identify possible response problems that require attention and caution when using standard, public GBM detector response matrices. Finally, we examine the effects of including the uncertainty in location on the spectral parameters of GRB 080916C. We find that spectral parameters change and no extra components are required when these effects are included in contrast to when we use a fixed location. This finding has the potential to alter both the GRB spectral catalogues and the reported spectral composition of some well-known GRBs.

Use of Climatic Information In Regional Water Resources Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claps, P.

Relations between climatic parameters and hydrological variables at the basin scale are investigated, with the aim of evaluating in a parsimonious way physical parameters useful both for a climatic classification of an area and for supporting statistical models of water resources assessment. With reference to the first point, literature methods for distributed evaluation of parameters such as temperature, global and net solar radiation, precipitation, have been considered at the annual scale with the aim of considering the viewpoint of the robust evaluation of parameters based on few basic physical variables of simple determination. Elevation, latitude and average annual number of sunny days have demonstrated to be the essential parameters with respect to the evaluation of climatic indices related to the soil water deficit and to the radiative balance. The latter term was evaluated at the monthly scale and validated (in the `global' term) with measured data. in questo caso riferite al bilancio idrico a scala annuale. Budyko, Thornthwaite and Emberger climatic indices were evaluated on the 10,000 km2 territory of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) based on a 1.1. km grid. They were compared in terms of spatial variability and sensitivity to the variation of the basic variables in humid and semi-arid areas. The use of the climatic index data with respect to statistical parameters of the runoff series in some gauging stations of the region demonstrated the possibility to support regionalisation of the annual runoff using climatic information, with clear distinction of the variability of the coefficient of variation in terms of the humidity-aridity of the basin.

Linear functional minimization for inverse modeling

DOE PAGES

Barajas-Solano, David A.; Wohlberg, Brendt Egon; Vesselinov, Velimir Valentinov; ...

2015-06-01

In this paper, we present a novel inverse modeling strategy to estimate spatially distributed parameters of nonlinear models. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators of these parameters are based on a likelihood functional, which contains spatially discrete measurements of the system parameters and spatiotemporally discrete measurements of the transient system states. The piecewise continuity prior for the parameters is expressed via Total Variation (TV) regularization. The MAP estimator is computed by minimizing a nonquadratic objective equipped with the TV operator. We apply this inversion algorithm to estimate hydraulic conductivity of a synthetic confined aquifer from measurements of conductivity and hydraulicmore » head. The synthetic conductivity field is composed of a low-conductivity heterogeneous intrusion into a high-conductivity heterogeneous medium. Our algorithm accurately reconstructs the location, orientation, and extent of the intrusion from the steady-state data only. Finally, addition of transient measurements of hydraulic head improves the parameter estimation, accurately reconstructing the conductivity field in the vicinity of observation locations.« less

FOREWORD: International Conference on Planetary Boundary Layer and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djolov, G.; Esau, I.

2010-05-01

One of the greatest achievements of climate science has been the establisment of the concept of climate change on a multitude of time scales. The Earth's complex climate system does not allow a straightforward interpretation of dependences between the external parameter perturbation, internal stochastic system dynamics and the long-term system response. The latter is usually referred to as climate change in a narrow sense (IPCC, 2007). The focused international conference "Planetary Boundary Layers and Climate Change" has addressed only time scales and dynamical aspects of climate change with possible links to the turbulent processes in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Although limited, the conference topic is by no means singular. One should clearly understand that the PBL is the layer where 99% of biosphere and human activity are concentrated. The PBL is the layer where the energy fluxes, which are followed by changes in cryosphere and other known feedbacks, are maximized. At the same time, the PBL processes are of a naturally small scale. What is the averaged long-term effect of the small-scale processes on the long-term climate dynamics? Can this effect be recognized in existing long-term paleo-climate data records? Can it be modeled? What is the current status of our theoretical understanding of this effect? What is the sensitivity of the climate model projections to the representation of small-scale processes? Are there significant indirect effects, e.g. through transport of chemical components, of the PBL processes on climate? These and other linked questions have been addressed during the conference. The Earth's climate has changed many times during the planet's history, with events ranging from ice ages to long periods of warmth. Historically, natural factors such as the amount of energy released from the Sun, volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth's orbit have affected the Earth's climate. Beginning late in the 18th century, human activities associated with the Industrial Revolution such as the addition of greenhouse gases and aerosols has changed the composition of the atmosphere. These changes are likely to have influenced temperature, precipitation, storms and sea level (IPCC, 2007). However, these features of the climate also vary naturally, so determining what fraction of climate changes are due to natural variability versus human activities is challenging and not yet a solved problem. Africa is vulnerable to climate change as its ability to adaptat and mitigate is considerably dampened (IPCC, 2007). Climate change may impede a nations ability to achieve sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals, and because of that Africa (particularly sub-tropical Africa) will experience increased levels of water stress and reduced agricultural yields of up to 50% by 2020. An example of the scale of the region's vulnerability was demonstrated during the last very dry year (1991/92) when 30% of the southern African population was put on food aid and more than one million people were displaced. Climate change in Africa is essentially dependent on our understanding of the PBL processes both due to the indispensible role of the atmospheric convection in the African climate and due to its tele-connections to other regions, e.g. the tropical Pacific and Indian monsoon regions. Although numerous publications attribute the observed changes to one or another modification of the convective patterns, further progress is impeded by imperfections of the small-scale process parameterizations in the models. The uncertainties include parameter uncertainties of known physical processes, which could be reduced through better observations/modelling, as well as uncertainties in our knowledge of physical processes themselves (or structural uncertainties), which could be reduced only through theoretical development and design of new, original observations/experiments (Oppenheimer et al., Science, 2007). Arguably, the structural uncertainties is hard to reduce and this could be one of the reasons determining slow progress in narrowing the climate model uncertainty range over the last 30 years (Knutti and Hagerl, Nature Geoscience, 2008). One of the most prominent structural uncertainties in the ongoing transient climate change is related to poor understanding and hence incorrect modelling of the turbulent physics and dynamics processes in the planetary boundary layer. Nevertheless, the climate models continue to rely on physically incorrect boundary layer parameterizations (Cuxart et al., BLM, 2006), whose erroneous dynamical response in the climate models may lead to significant abnormalities in simulated climate. At present, international efforts in theoretical understanding of the turbulent mixing have resulted in significant progress in turbulence simulation, measurements and parameterizations. However, this understanding has not yet found its way to the climate research community. Vice versa, climate research is not usually addressed by the boundary layer research community. The gap needs to be closed in order to crucially complete the scientific basis of climate change studies. The focus of the proposed forum could be formulated as follows: The planetary boundary layer determines several key parameters controlling the Earth's climate system but being a dynamic sub-system, just a layer of turbulent mixing in the atmosphere/ocean, it is also controlled by the climate system and its changes. Such a dynamic relationship causes a planetary boundary layer feedback (PBL-feedback) which could be defined as the response of the surface air temperature on changes in the vertical turbulent mixing. The forum participants have discussed both climatological and fluid dynamic aspects of this response, in order to quantify their role in the Earth's transient heat uptake and its representation in climate models. The choice of the forum location and dates are motivated by the role of tropical oceans and convection in the climate system and the prominent demonstration of the climate sensitivity to the ocean heat uptake observed off Cape Town. The international conference responded to the urgent need of advancing our understanding of the complex climate system and development of adequate measures for saving the planet from environmental disaster. It also fits well with the Republic of South African government's major political decision to include the responses to global change/climate change at the very top of science and technology policy. The conference participants are grateful to the Norway Research Council and the National Research Foundation (NRF) RSA who supported the Conference through the project "Analysis and Possibility for Control of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Processes to Facilitate Adaptation to Environmental Changes" realized in the framework of the Programme for Research and Co-operation Phase II between the two countries. Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens, Cape Town contribution of securing one of the most beautiful Conference venues in the world and technical support is also highly appreciated. G. Djolov and I. Esau Editors Conference_Photo Conference Organising Comittee Djolov, G.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Esau, I.NorwayNansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center Hewitson, B.South AfricaUniversity of Cape Town McGregor, J.AustraliaCSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Midgley, G.South AfricaSouth African National Botanical Institute Mphepya, J.South AfricaSouth African Weather Service Piketh, S.South AfricaUniversity of the Witwatersrand Pielke, R.USAUniversity of Colorado, Boulder Pienaar, K.South AfricaUniversity of the North West Rautenbach, H.South AfricaUniversity of Pretoria Zilitinkevich, S.FinlandUniversity of Helsinki The conference was organized by: University of Pretoria Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center With support and sponsorship from: Norwegian Research Council (grant N 197649) Kirstenbosh Biodiversity Institute and Botanical Gardens

The MIT IGSM-CAM framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

2011-12-01

The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) version 2.3 is an intermediate complexity fully coupled earth system model that allows simulation of critical feedbacks among its various components, including the atmosphere, ocean, land, urban processes and human activities. A fundamental feature of the IGSM2.3 is the ability to modify its climate parameters: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. As such, the IGSM2.3 provides an efficient tool for generating probabilistic distribution functions of climate parameters using optimal fingerprint diagnostics. A limitation of the IGSM2.3 is its zonal-mean atmosphere model that does not permit regional climate studies. For this reason, the MIT IGSM2.3 was linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 and new modules were developed and implemented in CAM in order to modify its climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing to match that of the IGSM. The IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and innovative framework to study regional climate change where climate parameters can be modified to span the range of uncertainty and various emissions scenarios can be tested. This paper presents results from the cloud radiative adjustment method used to modify CAM's climate sensitivity. We also show results from 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (a median "business as usual" scenario where no policy is implemented after 2012 and a policy scenario where greenhouse-gas are stabilized at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent concentrations by 2100) and three sets of climate parameters. The three values of climate sensitivity chosen are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the observed 20th century climate change with simulations by the IGSM with a wide range of climate parameters values. The associated aerosol forcing values were chosen to ensure a good agreement of the simulations with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentrations of sulfate aerosols significantly decrease over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these six simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

Estimation of reproduction number and non stationary spectral analysis of dengue epidemic.

PubMed

Enduri, Murali Krishna; Jolad, Shivakumar

2017-06-01

In this work we analyze the post monsoon Dengue outbreaks by analyzing the transient and long term dynamics of Dengue incidences and its environmental correlates in Ahmedabad city in western India from 2005 to 2012. We calculate the reproduction number R p using the growth rate of post monsoon Dengue outbreaks and biological parameters like host and vector incubation periods and vector mortality rate, and its uncertainties are estimated through Monte-Carlo simulations by sampling parameters from their respective probability distributions. Reduction in Female Aedes mosquito density required for an effective prevention of Dengue outbreaks is also calculated. The non stationary pattern of Dengue incidences and its climatic correlates like rainfall temperature is analyzed through Wavelet based methods. We find that the mean time lag between peak of monsoon and Dengue is 9 weeks. Monsoon and Dengue cases are phase locked from 2008 to 2012 in the 16 to maintain consistency make it "16 to 32" 32 weeks band. The duration of post monsoon outbreak has been increasing every year, especially post 2008, even though the intensity and duration of monsoon has been decreasing. Temperature and Dengue incidences show correlations in the same band, but phase lock is not stationary. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

VO2 Off Transient Kinetics in Extreme Intensity Swimming.

PubMed

Sousa, Ana; Figueiredo, Pedro; Keskinen, Kari L; Rodríguez, Ferran A; Machado, Leandro; Vilas-Boas, João P; Fernandes, Ricardo J

2011-01-01

Inconsistencies about dynamic asymmetry between the on- and off- transient responses in oxygen uptake are found in the literature. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to characterize the oxygen uptake off-transient kinetics during a maximal 200-m front crawl effort, as examining the degree to which the on/off regularity of the oxygen uptake kinetics response was preserved. Eight high level male swimmers performed a 200-m front crawl at maximal speed during which oxygen uptake was directly measured through breath-by-breath oxymetry (averaged every 5 s). This apparatus was connected to the swimmer by a low hydrodynamic resistance respiratory snorkel and valve system. The on- and off-transient phases were symmetrical in shape (mirror image) once they were adequately fitted by a single-exponential regression models, and no slow component for the oxygen uptake response was developed. Mean (± SD) peak oxygen uptake was 69.0 (± 6.3) mL·kg(-1)·min(-1), significantly correlated with time constant of the off- transient period (r = 0.76, p < 0.05) but not with any of the other oxygen off-transient kinetic parameters studied. A direct relationship between time constant of the off-transient period and mean swimming speed of the 200-m (r = 0.77, p < 0.05), and with the amplitude of the fast component of the effort period (r = 0.72, p < 0.05) were observed. The mean amplitude and time constant of the off-transient period values were significantly greater than the respective on- transient. In conclusion, although an asymmetry between the on- and off kinetic parameters was verified, both the 200-m effort and the respectively recovery period were better characterized by a single exponential regression model. Key pointsThe VO2 slow component was not observed in the recovery period of swimming extreme efforts;The on and off transient periods were better fitted by a single exponential function, and so, these effort and recovery periods of swimming extreme efforts are symmetrical;The rate of VO2 decline during the recovery period may be due to not only the magnitude of oxygen debt but also the VO2peak obtained during the effort period.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception.

PubMed

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Transient Volcano Deformation Event Detection over Variable Spatial Scales in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J. D.; Rude, C. M.; Gowanlock, M.; Herring, T.; Pankratius, V.

2016-12-01

Transient deformation events driven by volcanic activity can be monitored using increasingly dense networks of continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) ground stations. The wide spatial extent of GPS networks, the large number of GPS stations, and the spatially and temporally varying scale of deformation events result in the mixing of signals from multiple sources. Typical analysis then necessitates manual identification of times and regions of volcanic activity for further study and the careful tuning of algorithmic parameters to extract possible transient events. Here we present a computer-aided discovery system that facilitates the discovery of potential transient deformation events at volcanoes by providing a framework for selecting varying spatial regions of interest and for tuning the analysis parameters. This site specification step in the framework reduces the spatial mixing of signals from different volcanic sources before applying filters to remove interfering signals originating from other geophysical processes. We analyze GPS data recorded by the Plate Boundary Observatory network and volcanic activity logs from the Alaska Volcano Observatory to search for and characterize transient inflation events in Alaska. We find 3 transient inflation events between 2008 and 2015 at the Akutan, Westdahl, and Shishaldin volcanoes in the Aleutian Islands. The inflation event detected in the first half of 2008 at Akutan is validated other studies, while the inflation events observed in early 2011 at Westdahl and in early 2013 at Shishaldin are previously unreported. Our analysis framework also incorporates modelling of the transient inflation events and enables a comparison of different magma chamber inversion models. Here, we also estimate the magma sources that best describe the deformation observed by the GPS stations at Akutan, Westdahl, and Shishaldin. We acknowledge support from NASA AIST-NNX15AG84G (PI: V. Pankratius).

Hospital visits for gastrointestinal Illness after a major water main break in 2010

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Aim Water main breaks can occur due to the stresses of an aging infrastructure and changing climate. Water main breaks are a public health concern because they can cause pressure transients (specifically, abrupt decreases in water pressure/flow in the pipeline), which ...

Effects of harvesting forest biomass on water and climate regulation services: A synthesis of long-term ecosystem experiments in eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caputo, Jesse; Beier, Colin D; Groffman, Peter M; Burns, Douglas A.; Beall, Frederick D; Hazlett, Paul W.; Yorks, Thad E

2016-01-01

Demand for woody biomass fuels is increasing amidst concerns about global energy security and climate change, but there may be negative implications of increased harvesting for forest ecosystem functions and their benefits to society (ecosystem services). Using new methods for assessing ecosystem services based on long-term experimental research, post-harvest changes in ten potential benefits were assessed for ten first-order northern hardwood forest watersheds at three long-term experimental research sites in northeastern North America. As expected, we observed near-term tradeoffs between biomass provision and greenhouse gas regulation, as well as tradeoffs between intensive harvest and the capacity of the forest to remediate nutrient pollution. In both cases, service provision began to recover along with the regeneration of forest vegetation; in the case of pollution remediation, the service recovered to pre-harvest levels within 10 years. By contrast to these two services, biomass harvesting had relatively nominal and transient impacts on other ecosystem services. Our results are sensitive to empirical definitions of societal demand, including methods for scaling societal demand to ecosystem units, which are often poorly resolved. Reducing uncertainty around these parameters can improve confidence in our results and increase their relevance for decision-making. Our synthesis of long-term experimental studies provides insights on the social-ecological resilience of managed forest ecosystems to multiple drivers of change.

Exact analytical solution to a transient conjugate heat-transfer problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sucec, J.

1973-01-01

An exact analytical solution is found for laminar, constant-property, slug flow over a thin plate which is also convectively cooled from below. The solution is found by means of two successive Laplace transformations when a transient in the plate and the fluid is initiated by a step change in the fluid inlet temperature. The exact solution yields the transient fluid temperature, surface heat flux, and surface temperature distributions. The results of the exact transient solution for the surface heat flux are compared to the quasi-steady values, and a criterion for the validity of the quasi-steady results is found. Also the effect of the plate coupling parameter on the surface heat flux are investigated.

Variation in skin biology to climate in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaoping; Gao, Yanrui; Zhang, Yiyi; Wang, Xuemin

2017-09-01

To explore the relationship between climate and skin condition, and to investigate the variation of skin biology to climatic change. In total, 2005 healthy Chinese volunteers living in Shanghai (aged 13-69 years) were recruited. Transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and SCH were tested on six sites (forehead, cheek, nasolabial, inner forearm, dorsal hand, and palm) by noninvasive devices between January 2005 and December 2012. The corresponding climate data were recorded by local Weather Bureau. TEWL was increased with atmospheric pressure and decreased with temperature, steam pressure, and relative humidity (p < 0.05). SCH was increased with steam pressure and decreased with atmospheric pressure (p < 0.05); there was no obvious trend between SCH and temperature and SCH and relative humidity. To investigate the climate parameters together, we introduced these correlated factors into the multivariate linear regression model which demonstrated that temperature and steam pressure were main factors related to skin biological parameters. At different sites, the effect of climatic factors on skin biology was diverse. Skin biological parameters are associated with climatic factors. Different sites have different sensitivity to climate factors.

NIRS-EEG joint imaging during transcranial direct current stimulation: Online parameter estimation with an autoregressive model.

PubMed

Sood, Mehak; Besson, Pierre; Muthalib, Makii; Jindal, Utkarsh; Perrey, Stephane; Dutta, Anirban; Hayashibe, Mitsuhiro

2016-12-01

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) has been shown to perturb both cortical neural activity and hemodynamics during (online) and after the stimulation, however mechanisms of these tDCS-induced online and after-effects are not known. Here, online resting-state spontaneous brain activation may be relevant to monitor tDCS neuromodulatory effects that can be measured using electroencephalography (EEG) in conjunction with near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS). We present a Kalman Filter based online parameter estimation of an autoregressive (ARX) model to track the transient coupling relation between the changes in EEG power spectrum and NIRS signals during anodal tDCS (2mA, 10min) using a 4×1 ring high-definition montage. Our online ARX parameter estimation technique using the cross-correlation between log (base-10) transformed EEG band-power (0.5-11.25Hz) and NIRS oxy-hemoglobin signal in the low frequency (≤0.1Hz) range was shown in 5 healthy subjects to be sensitive to detect transient EEG-NIRS coupling changes in resting-state spontaneous brain activation during anodal tDCS. Conventional sliding window cross-correlation calculations suffer a fundamental problem in computing the phase relationship as the signal in the window is considered time-invariant and the choice of the window length and step size are subjective. Here, Kalman Filter based method allowed online ARX parameter estimation using time-varying signals that could capture transients in the coupling relationship between EEG and NIRS signals. Our new online ARX model based tracking method allows continuous assessment of the transient coupling between the electrophysiological (EEG) and the hemodynamic (NIRS) signals representing resting-state spontaneous brain activation during anodal tDCS. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanathan, V.; Callis, L.; Cess, R.; Hansen, J.; Isaksen, I.

1987-01-01

The paper considers trace gas-climate effects including the greenhouse effect of polyatomic trace gases, the nature of the radiative-chemical interactions, and radiative-dynamical interactions in the stratosphere, and the role of these effects in governing stratospheric climate change. Special consideration is given to recent developments in the investigations of the role of oceans in governing the transient climate responses, and a time-dependent estimate of the potential trace gas warming from the preindustrial era to the early 21st century. The importance of interacting modeling and observational efforts is emphasized. One of the problems remaining on the observational front is the lack of certainty in current estimates of the rate of growth of CO, O3, and NOx; the primary challenge is the design of a strategy that will minimize the sampling errors.

Scaling of transient storage parameter estimates with increasing reach length in a mountain headwater stream

Treesearch

M. Briggs; M. N. Gooseff; B. McGlynn

2006-01-01

We performed two conservative tracer injections in a mountain stream in order to access the relationship between storage parameters on the short subreach scale to the longer reach which they comprise.

Multi-Resolution Climate Ensemble Parameter Analysis with Nested Parallel Coordinates Plots.

PubMed

Wang, Junpeng; Liu, Xiaotong; Shen, Han-Wei; Lin, Guang

2017-01-01

Due to the uncertain nature of weather prediction, climate simulations are usually performed multiple times with different spatial resolutions. The outputs of simulations are multi-resolution spatial temporal ensembles. Each simulation run uses a unique set of values for multiple convective parameters. Distinct parameter settings from different simulation runs in different resolutions constitute a multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space. Understanding the correlation between the different convective parameters, and establishing a connection between the parameter settings and the ensemble outputs are crucial to domain scientists. The multi-resolution high-dimensional parameter space, however, presents a unique challenge to the existing correlation visualization techniques. We present Nested Parallel Coordinates Plot (NPCP), a new type of parallel coordinates plots that enables visualization of intra-resolution and inter-resolution parameter correlations. With flexible user control, NPCP integrates superimposition, juxtaposition and explicit encodings in a single view for comparative data visualization and analysis. We develop an integrated visual analytics system to help domain scientists understand the connection between multi-resolution convective parameters and the large spatial temporal ensembles. Our system presents intricate climate ensembles with a comprehensive overview and on-demand geographic details. We demonstrate NPCP, along with the climate ensemble visualization system, based on real-world use-cases from our collaborators in computational and predictive science.

Evaluating Transient Global and Regional Model Simulations: Bridging the Model/Observations Information Gap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Karl, T. R.; Easterling, D. R.; Buja, L.; Stouffer, R.; Alpert, J.

2001-05-01

A major transition in our ability to evaluate transient Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations is occurring. Real-time and retrospective numerical weather prediction analysis, model runs, climate simulations and assessments are proliferating from a handful of national centers to dozens of groups across the world. It is clear that it is no longer sufficient for any one national center to develop its data services alone. The comparison of transient GCM results with the observational climate record is difficult for several reasons. One limitation is that the global distributions of a number of basic climate quantities, such as precipitation, are not well known. Similarly, observational limitations exist with model re-analysis data. Both the NCEP/NCAR, and the ECMWF, re-analysis eliminate the problems of changing analysis systems but observational data also contain time-dependant biases. These changes in input data are blended with the natural variability making estimates of true variability uncertain. The need for data homogeneity is critical to study questions related to the ability to evaluate simulation of past climate. One approach to correct for time-dependant biases and data sparse regions is the development and use of high quality 'reference' data sets. The primary U.S. National responsibility for the archive and service of weather and climate data rests with the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). However, as supercomputers increase the temporal and spatial resolution of both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and GCM models, the volume and varied formats of data presented for archive at NCDC, using current communications technologies and data management techniques is limiting the scientific access of these data. To address this ever expanding need for climate and NWP information, NCDC along with the National Center's for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) have initiated the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). NOMADS is a collaboration between the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies (COLA); the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL); the George Mason University (GMU); the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); the NCDC; NCEP; the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL); and the University of Washington. The objective of the NOMADS is to preserve and provide retrospective access to GCM's and reference quality long-term observational and high volume three dimensional data as well as NCEP NWP models and re-start and re-analysis information. The creation of the NOMADS features a data distribution, format independent, methodology enabling scientific collaboration between researchers. The NOMADS configuration will allow a researcher to transparently browse, extract and intercompare retrospective observational and model data products from any of the participating centers. NOMADS will provide the ability to easily initialize and compare the results of ongoing climate model assessments and NWP output. Beyond the ingest and access capability soon to be implemented with NOMADS is the challenge of algorithm development for the inter-comparison of large-array data (e.g., satellite and radar) with surface, upper-air, and sub-surface ocean observational data. The implementation of NOMADS should foster the development of new quality control processes by taking advantage of distributed data access.

Investigating local controls on soil moisture temporal stability using an inverse modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogena, Heye; Qu, Wei; Huisman, Sander; Vereecken, Harry

2013-04-01

A better understanding of the temporal stability of soil moisture and its relation to local and nonlocal controls is a major challenge in modern hydrology. Both local controls, such as soil and vegetation properties, and non-local controls, such as topography and climate variability, affect soil moisture dynamics. Wireless sensor networks are becoming more readily available, which opens up opportunities to investigate spatial and temporal variability of soil moisture with unprecedented resolution. In this study, we employed the wireless sensor network SoilNet developed by the Forschungszentrum Jülich to investigate soil moisture variability of a grassland headwater catchment in Western Germany within the framework of the TERENO initiative. In particular, we investigated the effect of soil hydraulic parameters on the temporal stability of soil moisture. For this, the HYDRUS-1D code coupled with a global optimizer (DREAM) was used to inversely estimate Mualem-van Genuchten parameters from soil moisture observations at three depths under natural (transient) boundary conditions for 83 locations in the headwater catchment. On the basis of the optimized parameter sets, we then evaluated to which extent the variability in soil hydraulic conductivity, pore size distribution, air entry suction and soil depth between these 83 locations controlled the temporal stability of soil moisture, which was independently determined from the observed soil moisture data. It was found that the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) was the most significant attribute to explain temporal stability of soil moisture as expressed by the mean relative difference (MRD).

The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning

DOE PAGES

Hourdin, Frederic; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Gettelman, Andrew; ...

2017-03-31

The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling withmore » its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. Here, we discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.« less

The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hourdin, Frederic; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Gettelman, Andrew

The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate submodels. Most submodels depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling withmore » its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here, we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. Here, we discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.« less

Modeling North American Ice Sheet Response to Changes in Precession and Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

2012-12-01

Milankovitch theory proposes that changes in insolation due to orbital perturbations dictate the waxing and waning of the ice sheets (Hays et al., 1976). However, variations in solar forcing alone are insufficient to produce the glacial oscillations observed in the climate record. Non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system likely work in concert with the orbital cycles to produce a modified signal (e.g. Berger and Loutre, 1996), but the nature of these feedbacks remain poorly understood. To gain a better understand of the ice dynamics and climate feedbacks associated with changes in orbital configuration, we use a complex Earth system model consisting of the GENESIS GCM and land surface model (Pollard and Thompson, 1997), the Pennsylvania State University ice sheet model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), and the BIOME vegetation model (Kaplan et al., 2001). We began this study by investigating ice sheet sensitivity to a range of commonly used ice sheet model parameters, including mass balance and albedo, to optimize simulations for Pleistocene orbital cycles. Our tests indicate that choice of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can lead to significant differences in ice sheet behavior and volume. For instance, use of an insolation-temperature mass balance scheme (van den Berg, 2008) allows for a larger ice sheet response to orbital changes than the commonly employed positive degree-day method. Inclusion of a large temperature dependent ice albedo, representing phenomena such as melt ponds and dirty ice, also enhances ice sheet sensitivity. Careful tuning of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can help alleviate the problem of insufficient ice sheet retreat during periods of high summer insolation (Horton and Poulsen, 2007) while still accurately replicating the modern climate. Using our optimized configuration, we conducted a series of experiments with idealized transient orbits in an asynchronous coupling scheme to investigate the influence of obliquity and precession on the Laurentide and Cordillera ice sheets of North America. Preliminary model results show that the ice sheet response to changes in obliquity are larger than for precession despite providing a smaller direct insolation variation in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. A combination of enhanced Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature gradient and longer cycle duration allow for a larger ice sheet response to obliquity than would be expected from insolation forcing alone. Conversely, a shorter duration dampens the ice sheet response to precession. Nevertheless, the precession cycle does cause significant changes in ice volume, a feature not observed in the Early Pleistocene δ18O records (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003). Future work will examine the climate response to an idealized transient orbit that includes concurrent variations in obliquity, precession, and eccentricity.

Defining and measuring the mean residence time of lateral surface transient storage zones in small streams

Treesearch

T.R. Jackson; R. Haggerty; S.V. Apte; A. Coleman; K.J. Drost

2012-01-01

Surface transient storage (STS) has functional significance in stream ecosystems because it increases solute interaction with sediments. After volume, mean residence time is the most important metric of STS, but it is unclear how this can be measured accurately or related to other timescales and field-measureable parameters. We studied mean residence time of lateral...

Nonlinear dynamic analysis of traveling wave-type ultrasonic motors.

PubMed

Nakagawa, Yosuke; Saito, Akira; Maeno, Takashi

2008-03-01

In this paper, nonlinear dynamic response of a traveling wave-type ultrasonic motor was investigated. In particular, understanding the transient dynamics of a bar-type ultrasonic motor, such as starting up and stopping, is of primary interest. First, the transient response of the bar-type ultrasonic motor at starting up and stopping was measured using a laser Doppler velocimeter, and its driving characteristics are discussed in detail. The motor is shown to possess amplitude-dependent nonlinearity that greatly influences the transient dynamics of the motor. Second, a dynamical model of the motor was constructed as a second-order nonlinear oscillator, which represents the dynamics of the piezoelectric ceramic, stator, and rotor. The model features nonlinearities caused by the frictional interface between the stator and the rotor, and cubic nonlinearity in the dynamics of the stator. Coulomb's friction model was employed for the interface model, and a stick-slip phenomenon is considered. Lastly, it was shown that the model is capable of representing the transient dynamics of the motor accurately. The critical parameters in the model were identified from measured results, and numerical simulations were conducted using the model with the identified parameters. Good agreement between the results of measurements and numerical simulations is observed.

Global projections and climate stabilisation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedlingstein, Pierre

2014-05-01

The Summary for policy makers of the 5th Assessment Report of the Working Group 1 of IPCC has a figure that has no equivalent in previous IPCC assessment reports. This new figure shows the change in global average surface temperature as a function of cumulative anthropogenic emissions of CO2. In this talk I will describe how the concept of transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) that supports that figure emerged from the literature over the recent years and what are the fundamental physical and biogeochemical processes that explain this relationship and its linearity. I will also explore the implication of TCRE for long-term climate change and mitigation strategies as well as the limitations of the concept of TCRE.

Terrestrial carbon storage dynamics: Chasing a moving target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Y.; Shi, Z.; Jiang, L.; Xia, J.; Wang, Y.; Kc, M.; Liang, J.; Lu, X.; Niu, S.; Ahlström, A.; Hararuk, O.; Hastings, A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Medlyn, B. E.; Rasmussen, M.; Smith, M. J.; Todd-Brown, K. E.; Wang, Y.

2015-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have been estimated to absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Past studies have identified myriad drivers of terrestrial carbon storage changes, such as fire, climate change, and land use changes. Those drivers influence the carbon storage change via diverse mechanisms, which have not been unified into a general theory so as to identify what control the direction and rate of terrestrial carbon storage dynamics. Here we propose a theoretical framework to quantitatively determine the response of terrestrial carbon storage to different exogenous drivers. With a combination of conceptual reasoning, mathematical analysis, and numeric experiments, we demonstrated that the maximal capacity of an ecosystem to store carbon is time-dependent and equals carbon input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) multiplying by residence time. The capacity is a moving target toward which carbon storage approaches (i.e., the direction of carbon storage change) but usually does not attain. The difference between the capacity and the carbon storage at a given time t is the unrealized carbon storage potential. The rate of the storage change is proportional to the magnitude of the unrealized potential. We also demonstrated that a parameter space of NPP, residence time, and carbon storage potential can well characterize carbon storage dynamics quantified at six sites ranging from tropical forests to tundra and simulated by two versions (carbon-only and coupled carbon-nitrogen) of the Australian Community Atmosphere-Biosphere Land Ecosystem (CABLE) Model under three climate change scenarios (CO2 rising only, climate warming only, and RCP8.5). Overall this study reveals the unified mechanism unerlying terrestrial carbon storage dynamics to guide transient traceability analysis of global land models and synthesis of empirical studies.

Joint inversion of 3-PG using eddy-covariance and inventory plot measurements in temperate-maritime conifer forests: Uncertainty in transient carbon-balance responses to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hember, R. A.; Kurz, W. A.; Coops, N. C.; Black, T. A.

2010-12-01

Temperate-maritime forests of coastal British Columbia store large amounts of carbon (C) in soil, detritus, and trees. To better understand the sensitivity of these C stocks to climate variability, simulations were conducted using a hybrid version of the model, Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3-PG), combined with algorithms from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector - version 3 (CBM-CFS3) to account for full ecosystem C dynamics. The model was optimized based on a combination of monthly CO2 and H2O flux measurements derived from three eddy-covariance systems and multi-annual stemwood growth (Gsw) and mortality (Msw) derived from 1300 permanent sample plots by means of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The calibrated model serves as an unbiased estimator of stemwood C with enhanced precision over that of strictly-empirical models, minimized reliance on local prescriptions, and the flexibility to study impacts of environmental change on regional C stocks. We report the contribution of each dataset in identifying key physiological parameters and the posterior uncertainty in predictions of net ecosystem production (NEP). The calibrated model was used to spin up pre-industrial C pools and estimate the sensitivity of regional net carbon balance to a gradient of temperature changes, λ=ΔC/ΔT, during three 62-year harvest rotations, spanning 1949-2135. Simulations suggest that regional net primary production, tree mortality, and heterotrophic respiration all began increasing, while NEP began decreasing in response to warming following the 1976 shift in northeast-Pacific climate. We quantified the uncertainty of λ and how it was mediated by initial dead C, tree mortality, precipitation change, and the time horizon in which it was calculated.

Transient modelling of lacustrine regressions: two case studies from the Andean Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condom, Thomas; Coudrain, Anne; Dezetter, Alain; Brunstein, Daniel; Delclaux, François; Jean-Emmanuel, Sicart

2004-09-01

A model was developed for estimating the delay between a change in climatic conditions and the corresponding fall of water level in large lakes. The input data include: rainfall, temperature, extraterrestrial radiation and astronomical mid-month daylight hours. The model uses two empirical coefficients for computing the potential evaporation and one parameter for the soil capacity. The case studies are two subcatchments of the Altiplano (196 000 km2), in which the central low points are Lake Titicaca and a salar corresponding to the desiccation of the Tauca palaeolake. During the Holocene, the two catchments experienced a 100 m fall in water level corresponding to a decrease in water surface area of 3586 km2 and 55 000 km2, respectively. Under modern climatic conditions with a marked rainy season, the model allows simulation of water levels in good agreement with the observations: 3810 m a.s.l. for Lake Titicaca and lack of permanent wide ponds in the southern subcatchment. Simulations were carried out under different climatic conditions that might explain the Holocene fall in water level. Computed results show quite different behaviour for the two subcatchments. For the northern subcatchment, the time required for the 100 m fall in lake-level ranges between 200 and 2000 years when, compared with the present conditions, (i) the rainfall is decreased by 15% (640 mm/year), or (ii) the temperature is increased by 5.5 °C, or (iii) rainfall is distributed equally over the year. For the southern subcatchment (Tauca palaeolake), the time required for a 100 m decrease in water level ranges between 50 and 100 years. This decrease requires precipitation values lower than 330 mm/year.

Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

PubMed

Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

2012-01-01

Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables measured suggests that tree carbon allocation to coarse roots is independent of annual climate variability. The greater number of missing rings in branches highlights the fact that canopy development is a low priority for carbon allocation during poor growing conditions.

Southern high-latitude terrestrial climate change during the Palaeocene-Eocene derived from a marine pollen record (ODP Site 1172, East Tasman Plateau)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, L.; Pross, J.; Bijl, P. K.; O'Hara, R. B.; Raine, J. I.; Sluijs, A.; Brinkhuis, H.

2014-07-01

Reconstructing the early Palaeogene climate dynamics of terrestrial settings in the high southern latitudes is important to assess the role of high-latitude physical and biogeochemical processes in the global climate system. However, whereas a number of high-quality Palaeogene climate records has become available for the marine realm of the high southern latitudes over the recent past, the long-term evolution of coeval terrestrial climates and ecosystems is yet poorly known. We here explore the climate and vegetation dynamics on Tasmania from the middle Palaeocene to the early Eocene (60.7-54.2 Ma) based on a sporomorph record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 on the East Tasman Plateau. Our results show that three distinctly different vegetation types thrived on Tasmania under a high-precipitation regime during the middle Palaeocene to early Eocene, with each type representing different temperature conditions: (i) warm-temperate forests dominated by gymnosperms that were dominant during the middle and late Palaeocene (excluding the middle/late Palaeocene transition); (ii) cool-temperate forests dominated by southern beech (Nothofagus) and araucarians that transiently prevailed across the middle/late Palaeocene transition interval (~ 59.5 to ~ 59.0 Ma); and (iii) paratropical forests rich in ferns that were established during and in the wake of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). The transient establishment of cool-temperate forests lacking any frost-sensitive elements (i.e. palms and cycads) across the middle/late Palaeocene transition interval indicates markedly cooler conditions, with the occurrence of frosts in winter, on Tasmania during that time. The integration of our sporomorph data with previously published TEX86-based sea-surface temperatures from ODP Site 1172 documents that the vegetation dynamics on Tasmania were closely linked with the temperature evolution in the Tasman sector of the Southwest Pacific region. Moreover, the comparison of our season-specific climate estimates for the sporomorph assemblages from ODP Site 1172 with the TEX86L- and TEX86H-based temperature data suggests a warm bias of both calibrations for the early Palaeogene of the high southern latitudes.

Biome changes in Asia since the mid-Holocene - an analysis of different transient Earth system model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmeyer, Anne; Claussen, Martin; Ni, Jian; Cao, Xianyong; Wang, Yongbo; Fischer, Nils; Pfeiffer, Madlene; Jin, Liya; Khon, Vyacheslav; Wagner, Sebastian; Haberkorn, Kerstin; Herzschuh, Ulrike

2017-02-01

The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate-vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere-ocean(-vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions.In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon-westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert-steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1-9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

A new approach to modeling aerosol effects on East Asian climate: Parametric uncertainties associated with emissions, cloud microphysics, and their interactions: AEROSOL EFFECTS ON EAST ASIAN CLIMATE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Huiping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun

2015-09-09

In this study, we adopt a parametric sensitivity analysis framework that integrates the quasi-Monte Carlo parameter sampling approach and a surrogate model to examine aerosol effects on the East Asian Monsoon climate simulated in the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5). A total number of 256 CAM5 simulations are conducted to quantify the model responses to the uncertain parameters associated with cloud microphysics parameterizations and aerosol (e.g., sulfate, black carbon (BC), and dust) emission factors and their interactions. Results show that the interaction terms among parameters are important for quantifying the sensitivity of fields of interest, especially precipitation, to the parameters. Themore » relative importance of cloud-microphysics parameters and emission factors (strength) depends on evaluation metrics or the model fields we focused on, and the presence of uncertainty in cloud microphysics imposes an additional challenge in quantifying the impact of aerosols on cloud and climate. Due to their different optical and microphysical properties and spatial distributions, sulfate, BC, and dust aerosols have very different impacts on East Asian Monsoon through aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The climatic effects of aerosol do not always have a monotonic response to the change of emission factors. The spatial patterns of both sign and magnitude of aerosol-induced changes in radiative fluxes, cloud, and precipitation could be different, depending on the aerosol types, when parameters are sampled in different ranges of values. We also identify the different cloud microphysical parameters that show the most significant impact on climatic effect induced by sulfate, BC and dust, respectively, in East Asia.« less

Transient states of air parameters after a stoppage and re-start of the main fan / Stany przejściowe parametrów powietrza po postoju i załączeniu wentylatora głównego

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasilewski, Stanisław

2012-12-01

A stoppage of the main ventilation fan constitutes a disturbance of ventilation conditions of a deepmine and its effects can cause serious hazards by generating transient states of air and gas flow. Main ventilation fans are the basic deep-mine facilities; therefore, under mining regulations it is only allowed to stop them with the consent and under the conditions specified by the mine maintenance manager. The stoppage of the main ventilation fan may be accompanied by transient air parameters, including the air pressure and flow patterns. There is even the likelihood of reversing the direction of air flow, which, in case of methane mines, can pose a major hazard, particularly in sections of the mine with fire fields or large goaf areas. At the same time, stoppages of deep-mine main ventilation fans create interesting research conditions, which if conducted under the supervision of the monitoring systems, can provide much information about the transient processes of pressure, air and gas flow in underground workings. This article is a discussion of air parameter observations in mine workings made as part of such experiments. It also presents the procedure of the experiments, conducted in three mines. They involved the observation of transient processes of mine air parameters, and most interestingly, the recording of pressure and air and gas flow in the workings of the mine ventilation networks by mine monitoring systems and using specialist recording instruments. In mining practice, both in Poland and elsewhere, software tools and computer modelling methods are used to try and reproduce the conditions prior to and during disasters based on the existing network model and monitoring system data. The use of these tools to simulate the alternatives of combating and liquidation of the gas-fire hazard after its occurrence is an important issue. Measurement data collected during the experiments provides interesting research material for the verification and validation of the software tools used for the simulation of processes occurring in deep-mine ventilation systems.

Improved analysis of transient temperature data from permanent down-hole gauges (PDGs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiqun; Zheng, Shiyi; Wang, Qi

2017-08-01

With the installation of permanent down-hole gauges (PDGs) during oil field development, large volumes of high resolution and continuous down-hole information are obtainable. The interpretation of these real-time temperature and pressure data can optimize well performance, provide information about the reservoir and continuously calibrate the reservoir model. Although the dynamic temperature data have been interpreted in practice to predict flow profiling and provide characteristic information of the reservoir, almost all of the approaches rely on established non-isothermal models which depend on thermodynamic parameters. Another problem comes from the temperature transient analysis (TTA), which is underutilized compared with pressure transient analysis (PTA). In this study, several model-independent methods of TTA were performed. The entire set of PDG data consists of many flow events. By utilizing the wavelet transform, the exact points of flow-rate changes can be located. The flow regime changes, for example, from early time linear flow to later time pseudo-radial flow, among every transient period with constant flow-rate. For the early time region (ETR) that is caused by flow-rate change operations, the TTA, along with the PTA can greatly reduce the uncertainties in flow regime diagnosis. Then, the temperature variations during ETR were examined to infer the true reservoir temperature history, and the relationships between the wavelet detailed coefficients and the flow-rate changes were analysed. For the scenarios with constant reservoir-well parameters, the detailed flow-rate history can be generated by calculating the coefficient of relationship in advance. For later times, the flow regime changes to pseudo-radial flow. An analytical solution was introduced to describe the sand-face temperature. The formation parameters, such as permeability and skin factor, were estimated with the previously calculated flow-rate. It is necessary to analyse temperature variation to overcome data limitation problems when information from other down-hole tools (e.g. expensive but unstable flow meters) is insufficient. This study shows the success in wellbore storage regime diagnosis, flow-rate history reconstruction, and formation parameters estimation using transient temperature data.

Sensitivity analysis of reactive ecological dynamics.

PubMed

Verdy, Ariane; Caswell, Hal

2008-08-01

Ecological systems with asymptotically stable equilibria may exhibit significant transient dynamics following perturbations. In some cases, these transient dynamics include the possibility of excursions away from the equilibrium before the eventual return; systems that exhibit such amplification of perturbations are called reactive. Reactivity is a common property of ecological systems, and the amplification can be large and long-lasting. The transient response of a reactive ecosystem depends on the parameters of the underlying model. To investigate this dependence, we develop sensitivity analyses for indices of transient dynamics (reactivity, the amplification envelope, and the optimal perturbation) in both continuous- and discrete-time models written in matrix form. The sensitivity calculations require expressions, some of them new, for the derivatives of equilibria, eigenvalues, singular values, and singular vectors, obtained using matrix calculus. Sensitivity analysis provides a quantitative framework for investigating the mechanisms leading to transient growth. We apply the methodology to a predator-prey model and a size-structured food web model. The results suggest predator-driven and prey-driven mechanisms for transient amplification resulting from multispecies interactions.

Evaluation of a multi-channel algorithm for reducing transient sounds.

PubMed

Keshavarzi, Mahmoud; Baer, Thomas; Moore, Brian C J

2018-05-15

The objective was to evaluate and select appropriate parameters for a multi-channel transient reduction (MCTR) algorithm for detecting and attenuating transient sounds in speech. In each trial, the same sentence was played twice. A transient sound was presented in both sentences, but its level varied across the two depending on whether or not it had been processed by the MCTR and on the "strength" of the processing. The participant indicated their preference for which one was better and by how much in terms of the balance between the annoyance produced by the transient and the audibility of the transient (they were told that the transient should still be audible). Twenty English-speaking participants were tested, 10 with normal hearing and 10 with mild-to-moderate hearing-impairment. Frequency-dependent linear amplification was provided for the latter. The results for both participant groups indicated that sounds processed using the MCTR were preferred over the unprocessed sounds. For the hearing-impaired participants, the medium and strong settings of the MCTR were preferred over the weak setting. The medium and strong settings of the MCTR reduced the annoyance produced by the transients while maintaining their audibility.

Transient spatiotemporal chaos in the Morris-Lecar neuronal ring network.

PubMed

Keplinger, Keegan; Wackerbauer, Renate

2014-03-01

Transient behavior is thought to play an integral role in brain functionality. Numerical simulations of the firing activity of diffusively coupled, excitable Morris-Lecar neurons reveal transient spatiotemporal chaos in the parameter regime below the saddle-node on invariant circle bifurcation point. The neighborhood of the chaotic saddle is reached through perturbations of the rest state, in which few initially active neurons at an effective spatial distance can initiate spatiotemporal chaos. The system escapes from the neighborhood of the chaotic saddle to either the rest state or to a state of pulse propagation. The lifetime of the chaotic transients is manipulated in a statistical sense through a singular application of a synchronous perturbation to a group of neurons.

Transient analysis of a superconducting AC generator using the compensated 2-D model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chun, Y.D.; Lee, H.W.; Lee, J.

1999-09-01

A SCG has many advantages over conventional generators, such as reduction in width and size, improvement in efficiency, and better steady-state stability. The paper presents a 2-D transient analysis of a superconducting AC generator (SCG) using the finite element method (FEM). The compensated 2-D model obtained by lengthening the airgap of the original 2-D model is proposed for the accurate and efficient transient analysis. The accuracy of the compensated 2-D model is verified by the small error 6.4% compared to experimental data. The transient characteristics of the 30 KVA SCG model have been investigated in detail and the damper performancemore » on various design parameters is examined.« less

Using prior information to separate the temperature response to greenhouse gas forcing from that of aerosols - Estimating the transient climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurer, Andrew; Hegerl, Gabriele

2016-04-01

The evaluation of the transient climate response (TCR) is of critical importance to policy makers as it can be used to calculate a simple estimate of the expected warming given predicted greenhouse gas emissions. Previous studies using optimal detection techniques have been able to estimate a TCR value from the historic record using simulations from some of the models which took part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) but have found that others give unconstrained results. At least partly this is due to degeneracy between the greenhouse gas and aerosol signals which makes separation of the temperature response to these forcings problematic. Here we re-visit this important topic by using an adapted optimal detection analysis within a Bayesian framework. We account for observational uncertainty by the use of an ensemble of instrumental observations, and model uncertainty by combining the results from several different models. This framework allows the use of prior information which is found to help separate the response to the different forcings leading to a more constrained estimate of TCR.

Feedback control of acoustic disturbance transient growth in triggering thermoacoustic instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Dan; Reyhanoglu, Mahmut

2014-08-01

Transient growth of acoustic disturbances could trigger thermoacoustic instability in a combustion system with non-orthogonal eigenmodes, even with stable eigenvalues. In this work, feedback control of transient growth of flow perturbations in a Rijke-type combustion system is considered. For this, a generalized thermoacoustic model with distributed monopole-like actuators is developed. The model is formulated in state-space to gain insights on the interaction between various eigenmodes and the dynamic response of the system to the actuators. Three critical parameters are identified: (1) the mode number, (2) the number of actuators, and (3) the locations of the actuators. It is shown that in general the number of the actuators K is related to the mode number N as K=N2. For simplicity in illustrating the main results of the paper, two different thermoacoustic systems are considered: system (a) with one mode and system (b) that involves two modes. The actuator location effect is studied in system (a) and it is found that the actuator location plays an important role in determining the control effort. In addition, sensitivity analysis of pressure- and velocity-related control parameters is conducted. In system (b), when the actuators are turned off (i.e., open-loop configuration), it is observed that acoustic energy transfers from the high frequency mode to the lower frequency mode. After some time, the energy is transferred back. Moreover, the high frequency oscillation grows into nonlinear limit cycle with the low frequency oscillation amplified. As a linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) is implemented to tune the actuators, both systems become asymptotically stable. However, the LQR controller fails in eliminating the transient growth, which may potentially trigger thermoacoustic instability. In order to achieve strict dissipativity (i.e., unity maximum transient growth), a transient growth controller is systematically designed and tested in both systems. Comparison is then made between the performance of the LQR controller and that of the transient growth controller. It is found in both systems that the transient growth controller achieves both exponential decay of the flow disturbance energy and unity maximum transient growth.

Impact of Climate Change on high and low flows across Great Britain: a temporal analysis and uncertainty assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beevers, Lindsay; Collet, Lila

2017-04-01

Over the past decade there have been significant challenges to water management posed by both floods and droughts. In the UK, since 2000 flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, and direct costs from the recent drought (2011-12) are estimated to be between £70-165M, arising from impacts on public and industrial water supply. Projections of future climate change suggest an increase in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards, but there is significant uncertainty associated with these projections. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme flows and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections, particularly changes in the seasonality of such hazards. This paper aims to assess the changes in seasonality of peak and low flows across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database; an 11-member ensemble of transient river flow projections from January 1951 to December 2098. We analyse the daily river flow over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for 281 gauging stations. For each ensemble member, annual maxima (AMAX) and minima (AMIN) are extracted for both time periods for each gauging station. The month of the year the AMAX and AMIN occur respectively are recorded for each of the 30 years in the past and the future time periods. The uncertainty of the AMAX and AMIN occurrence temporally (monthly) is assessed across the 11 ensemble members, as well as the changes to this temporal signal between the baseline and the 2080s. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture (spatially) of high and low flows occurrence temporally and allows the assessment of possible changes in hydrological dynamics as a result of climate change in a statistical framework. Results will quantify the uncertainty related to the Climate Model parameters which are cascaded into the modelling chain. This study highlights the issues facing hydrological cycle management, due to changing spatial and temporal trends in order to anticipate and adapt to hydro-hazard changes in an uncertain context.

Calibration-induced uncertainty of the EPIC model to estimate climate change impact on global maize yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Wei; Skalský, Rastislav; Porter, Cheryl H.; Balkovič, Juraj; Jones, James W.; Yang, Di

2016-09-01

Understanding the interactions between agricultural production and climate is necessary for sound decision-making in climate policy. Gridded and high-resolution crop simulation has emerged as a useful tool for building this understanding. Large uncertainty exists in this utilization, obstructing its capacity as a tool to devise adaptation strategies. Increasing focus has been given to sources of uncertainties for climate scenarios, input-data, and model, but uncertainties due to model parameter or calibration are still unknown. Here, we use publicly available geographical data sets as input to the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC) for simulating global-gridded maize yield. Impacts of climate change are assessed up to the year 2099 under a climate scenario generated by HadEM2-ES under RCP 8.5. We apply five strategies by shifting one specific parameter in each simulation to calibrate the model and understand the effects of calibration. Regionalizing crop phenology or harvest index appears effective to calibrate the model for the globe, but using various values of phenology generates pronounced difference in estimated climate impact. However, projected impacts of climate change on global maize production are consistently negative regardless of the parameter being adjusted. Different values of model parameter result in a modest uncertainty at global level, with difference of the global yield change less than 30% by the 2080s. The uncertainty subjects to decrease if applying model calibration or input data quality control. Calibration has a larger effect at local scales, implying the possible types and locations for adaptation.

Greenland-Wide Seasonal Temperatures During the Last Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizert, C.; Keisling, B. A.; Box, J. E.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Sinclair, G.; DeConto, R. M.

2018-02-01

The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to climate forcing is of key importance in assessing its contribution to past and future sea level rise. Surface mass loss occurs during summer, and accounting for temperature seasonality is critical in simulating ice sheet evolution and in interpreting glacial landforms and chronologies. Ice core records constrain the timing and magnitude of climate change but are largely limited to annual mean estimates from the ice sheet interior. Here we merge ice core reconstructions with transient climate model simulations to generate Greenland-wide and seasonally resolved surface air temperature fields during the last deglaciation. Greenland summer temperatures peak in the early Holocene, consistent with records of ice core melt layers. We perform deglacial Greenland ice sheet model simulations to demonstrate that accounting for realistic temperature seasonality decreases simulated glacial ice volume, expedites the deglacial margin retreat, mutes the impact of abrupt climate warming, and gives rise to a clear Holocene ice volume minimum.

Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record.

PubMed

Kemp, David B; Eichenseer, Kilian; Kiessling, Wolfgang

2015-11-10

Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10(2) to >10(7) years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

Climate change impact on the establishment and seasonal abundance of Invasive Mosquito Species: current state and future risk maps over southeast Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tagaris, Efthimios; -Eleni Sotiropoulou, Rafaella; Sotiropoulos, Andreas; Spanos, Ioannis; Milonas, Panayiotis; Michaelakis, Antonios

2017-04-01

Establishment and seasonal abundance of a region for Invasive Mosquito Species (IMS) are related to climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation. In this work the current state is assessed using data from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) project over Greece and Italy for the development of current spatial risk databases of IMS. Results are validated from the installation of a prototype IMS monitoring device that has been designed and developed in the framework of the LIFE CONOPS project at key points across the two countries. Since climate models suggest changes in future temperature and precipitation rates, the future potentiality of IMS establishment and spread over Greece and Italy is assessed using the climatic parameters in 2050's provided by the NASA GISS GCM ModelE under the IPCC-A1B emissions scenarios. The need for regional climate projections in a finer grid size is assessed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale GCM simulations. The estimated changes in the future meteorological parameters are combined with the observation data in order to estimate the future levels of the climatic parameters of interest. The final product includes spatial distribution maps presenting the future suitability of a region for the establishment and seasonal abundance of the IMS over Greece and Italy. Acknowledgement: LIFE CONOPS project "Development & demonstration of management plans against - the climate change enhanced - invasive mosquitoes in S. Europe" (LIFE12 ENV/GR/000466).

Scaling of Transient Storage Parameter Estimates with Increasing Reach Length in a Mountain Headwater Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, M.; Gooseff, M. N.; McGlynn, B.

2006-12-01

. Numerous studies have used the methods of stream tracer experiments and subsequent solute transport modeling to determine transient storage characteristics of streams. Experimental reach length is often determined by site logistics, morphology, specific study goals, etc. Harvey et al. [1996] provided guidance for optimal study reach lengths, based on the Dahmkoler number, as a balance between timescales of advective transport and transient storage. In this study, we investigate the scaling of parameters in a solute transport model (OTIS) with increasing spatial scale of investigation. We conducted 2 6-hour constant rate injections of dissolved NaCl in Spring Park Creek, a headwater stream in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest, Montana. Below the first injection we sampled 4 reaches ~200m in length, we then moved upstream 640m for the second injection and sampled 3 more ~200 m reaches. Solute transport simulations were conducted for each of these sub-reaches and for combinations of these sub-reaches, from which we assessed estimates of solute velocity, dispersion, transient storage exchange, storage zone size, and Fmed (proportion of median transport time due to storage). Dahmkoler values calculated for each simulation (sub-reaches as well as longer combined reach) were within an order of magnitude of 1, suggesting that our study reach lengths were appropriate. Length-weighted average solute transport and transient storage parameters for the sub-reaches were found to be comparable to their counterparts in the longer reach simulation. In particular the average dispersion found for the sub-reaches (0.43 m2/s) compared very favorably with the value for dispersion calculated for the larger reach (0.40 m2/s). In contrast the weighted average of storage zone size for the sub-reaches was much greater (1.17 m2) than those calculated for the injection reach as a whole (0.09 m2) by a factor of ~13. Weighted average values for transient storage exchange and size for the sub-reaches were both found to be higher than that of the reach as a whole, but only by factors of ~2.5 and 3 respectively. This study indicates that some values of solute transport and transient storage for a particular reach can be reasonably extrapolated from its corresponding component reach values.

Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adisa, Omolola M.; Botai, Christina M.; Botai, Joel O.; Hassen, Abubeker; Darkey, Daniel; Tesfamariam, Eyob; Adisa, Alex F.; Adeola, Abiodun M.; Ncongwane, Katlego P.

2017-11-01

This study analyzed the variability of the agro-climatic parameters that impact maize production across different seasons in South Africa. To achieve this, four agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum, and maximum temperatures) were considered for the period spanning 1986-2015, covering the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces. Results illustrate that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Furthermore, the results showed that among other agro-climatic parameters, minimum temperature had the most influence on maize production in North West, potential evapotranspiration (combination of the agro-climatic parameters), minimum and maximum temperature influenced maize production in KZN while maximum temperature influenced maize production in Mpumalanga and Free State. In general, the agro-climatic parameters were found to contribute 7.79, 21.85, 32.52, and 44.39% to variation in maize production during the study period in North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KZN, respectively. The variation in maize production among the provinces under investigation could most likely attribute to the variation in the size of the cultivated land among other factors including soil type and land tenure system. There were also difference in yield per hectare between the provinces; KZN and Mpumalanga being located in the humid subtropical areas of South Africa had the highest yield per hectare 5.61 and 4.99 tons, respectively, while Free State and North West which are in the semi-arid region had the lowest yield per hectare 3.86 and 3.03 tons, respectively. Understanding the nature and interaction of the dominant agro-climatic parameters discussed in the present study as well as their impact on maize production will help farmers and agricultural policy makers to understand how climate change exerts its influence on maize production within the study area so as to better adapt to the major climate element that either increases or decreases maize production in their respective provinces.

Disentangling synergistic climate drivers on the evolution of two species of planktonic foraminifera on regional and global scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brombacher, A.; Wilson, P. A.; Bailey, I.; Ezard, T. H. G.

2016-02-01

Evolution is driven by a combination of biotic and abiotic factors. When quantifying the effects of abiotic drivers, evolutionary change is generally described as a response to a single environmental parameter assumed to represent global climate. However, climate is a complex system of many interacting factors and characterized by high regional variability. Therefore, to understand the role of climate in evolutionary change, we need to consider multiple environmental parameters, across local, regional and global scales, as well as their interactions. The deep-sea microfossil record is sufficiently complete that sufficiently continuous multivariate climatic and multivariate trait data can be obtained from the same samples. Here we present morphological records of the planktonic foraminifera species Globoconella puncticulata and Truncorotalia crassaformis over a 500,000-year interval directly preceding the extinction of G. puncticulata (2.41 Ma). Material was collected from five North Atlantic sites (ODP Sites 659 [18° N], 925 [3° N] and 981 [55° N], IODP Site U1313 [41° N] and DSDP Site 606 [37° N]). Test size and shape of over 35,000 individuals were measured and compared to site-specific records of sea surface temperature, primary productivity and marine aeolian dust deposition, as well as to global records of ice volume, ocean circulation and atmospheric CO2, and all two-way interactions. Morphological parameters respond weakly to individual climate parameters. Once interactions among all studied climate parameters were incorporated, abiotic change explained around 35% of the evolutionary variance. Observed covariances between environmental parameters vary strongly with glacial-interglacial cyclicity, implying that the relationships among climate variables and their relative influences on evolutionary change varied through time. This time dependence cautions against unfettered use of dimension reduction techniques, such as principal components analysis, to extract a single, supposedly dominant, proxy. Furthermore species' responses differed between geographic locations, impressing the need to test how interactions among multiple climate variables at different regional settings shape the biotic microevolutionary response to local and global abiotic change.

Analysis of switching surges generated by current interruption in an energy-storge coil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhuri, P.

1981-10-01

The transient voltages which are generated when the current in a large magnetic energy storage coil is interruped by a dc vacuum circuit breaker is analyzed. The effect of the various parameters in the circuit on the transient voltage is dicussed. The self inductance of the dump resistor must be minimized to control the generated transient. Contrary to general belief, a capacitor across the coil is not an effective surge suppressor. In fact, the capacitor may excite oscillations of higher magnitude. However, a capacitor, in addition to a surge suppressor, may be used to modify the frequency components of the transient voltage so that these frequency components are not coincident with the natural frequencies of the coil. Otherwise, resonant oscillations inside the coil may attain damaging magnitudes. The capacitor would also reduce the steepness of the wavefront of the transient across the coil, thus reducing the nonlinear voltage distribution inside the coil.

Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keery, John S.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.

2018-02-01

The early Eocene, from about 56 Ma, with high atmospheric CO2 levels, offers an analogue for the response of the Earth's climate system to anthropogenic fossil fuel burning. In this study, we present an ensemble of 50 Earth system model runs with an early Eocene palaeogeography and variation in the forcing values of atmospheric CO2 and the Earth's orbital parameters. Relationships between simple summary metrics of model outputs and the forcing parameters are identified by linear modelling, providing estimates of the relative magnitudes of the effects of atmospheric CO2 and each of the orbital parameters on important climatic features, including tropical-polar temperature difference, ocean-land temperature contrast, Asian, African and South (S.) American monsoon rains, and climate sensitivity. Our results indicate that although CO2 exerts a dominant control on most of the climatic features examined in this study, the orbital parameters also strongly influence important components of the ocean-atmosphere system in a greenhouse Earth. In our ensemble, atmospheric CO2 spans the range 280-3000 ppm, and this variation accounts for over 90 % of the effects on mean air temperature, southern winter high-latitude ocean-land temperature contrast and northern winter tropical-polar temperature difference. However, the variation of precession accounts for over 80 % of the influence of the forcing parameters on the Asian and African monsoon rainfall, and obliquity variation accounts for over 65 % of the effects on winter ocean-land temperature contrast in high northern latitudes and northern summer tropical-polar temperature difference. Our results indicate a bimodal climate sensitivity, with values of 4.36 and 2.54 °C, dependent on low or high states of atmospheric CO2 concentration, respectively, with a threshold at approximately 1000 ppm in this model, and due to a saturated vegetation-albedo feedback. Our method gives a quantitative ranking of the influence of each of the forcing parameters on key climatic model outputs, with additional spatial information from singular value decomposition providing insights into likely physical mechanisms. The results demonstrate the importance of orbital variation as an agent of change in climates of the past, and we demonstrate that emulators derived from our modelling output can be used as rapid and efficient surrogates of the full complexity model to provide estimates of climate conditions from any set of forcing parameters.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-08-01

Simulations using IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We applied support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicted model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures were determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations were the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

Transient Behavior of Lumped-Constant Systems for Sensing Gas Pressures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delio, Gene J; Schwent, Glennon V; Cesaro, Richard S

1949-01-01

The development of theoretical equations describing the behavior of a lumped-constant pressure-sensing system under transient operation Is presented with experimental data that show agreement with the equations. A pressure-sensing system 'consisting of a tube terminating in a reservoir is investigated for the transient relation between a presSure disturbance at the open end of the tube and the pressure response in the reservoir. Design parameters are presented that can be adjusted to achieve a desired performance fran such a system when the system is considered as a transfer member of a control loop.

Vertical axis wind turbine drive train transient dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clauss, D. B.; Carne, T. G.

1982-01-01

Start up of a vertical axis wind turbine causes transient torque oscillations in the drive train with peak torques which may be over two and one half times the rated torque of the turbine. A computer code, based on a lumped parameter model of the drive train, was developed and tested for the low cost 17 meter turbine; the results show excellent agreement with field data. The code was used to predict the effect of a slip clutch on transient torque oscillations. It was demonstrated that a slip clutch located between the motor and brake can reduce peak torques by thirty eight percent.

Objective calibration of regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellprat, O.; Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; SchäR, C.

2012-12-01

Climate models are subject to high parametric uncertainty induced by poorly confined model parameters of parameterized physical processes. Uncertain model parameters are typically calibrated in order to increase the agreement of the model with available observations. The common practice is to adjust uncertain model parameters manually, often referred to as expert tuning, which lacks objectivity and transparency in the use of observations. These shortcomings often haze model inter-comparisons and hinder the implementation of new model parameterizations. Methods which would allow to systematically calibrate model parameters are unfortunately often not applicable to state-of-the-art climate models, due to computational constraints facing the high dimensionality and non-linearity of the problem. Here we present an approach to objectively calibrate a regional climate model, using reanalysis driven simulations and building upon a quadratic metamodel presented by Neelin et al. (2010) that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of the model. Five model parameters originating from different parameterizations are selected for the optimization according to their influence on the model performance. The metamodel accurately estimates spatial averages of 2 m temperature, precipitation and total cloud cover, with an uncertainty of similar magnitude as the internal variability of the regional climate model. The non-linearities of the parameter perturbations are well captured, such that only a limited number of 20-50 simulations are needed to estimate optimal parameter settings. Parameter interactions are small, which allows to further reduce the number of simulations. In comparison to an ensemble of the same model which has undergone expert tuning, the calibration yields similar optimal model configurations, but leading to an additional reduction of the model error. The performance range captured is much wider than sampled with the expert-tuned ensemble and the presented methodology is effective and objective. It is argued that objective calibration is an attractive tool and could become standard procedure after introducing new model implementations, or after a spatial transfer of a regional climate model. Objective calibration of parameterizations with regional models could also serve as a strategy toward improving parameterization packages of global climate models.

Sensitivity of climate and atmospheric CO2 to deep-ocean and shallow-ocean carbonate burial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Volk, Tyler

1989-01-01

A model of the carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle is presented that distinguishes carbonate masses produced by shallow-ocean and deep-ocean carbonate burial and shows that reasonable increases in deep-ocean burial could produce substantial warmings over a few hundred million years. The model includes exchanges between crust and mantle; transients from burial shifts are found to be sensitive to the fraction of nondegassed carbonates subducted into the mantle. Without the habitation of the open ocean by plankton such as foraminifera and coccolithophores, today's climate would be substantially colder.

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE PAGES

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra; ...

2017-11-20

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bennett, Katrina Eleanor; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Jonko, Alexandra

The Colorado River basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model.more » Here, we combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach.« less

Algorithm of dynamic regulation of a system of duct, for a high accuracy climatic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbatskiy, A. A.; Afonina, G. N.; Glazov, V. S.

2017-11-01

Currently, major part of climatic system, are stationary in projected mode only. At the same time, many modern industrial sites, require constant or periodical changes in technological process. That is 80% of the time, the industrial site is not require ventilation system in projected mode and high precision of climatic parameters must maintain. While that not constantly is in use for climatic systems, which use in parallel for different rooms, we will be have a problem for balance of duct system. For this problem, was created the algorithm for quantity regulation, with minimal changes. Dynamic duct system: Developed of parallel control system of air balance, with high precision of climatic parameters. The Algorithm provide a permanent pressure in main duct, in different a flow of air. Therefore, the ending devises air flow have only one parameter for regulation - flaps open area. Precision of regulation increase and the climatic system provide high precision for temperature and humidity (0,5C for temperature, 5% for relative humidity). Result: The research has been made in CFD-system - PHOENICS. Results for velocity of air in duct, for pressure of air in duct for different operation mode, has been obtained. Equation for air valves positions, with different parameters for climate in room’s, has been obtained. Energy saving potential for dynamic duct system, for different types of a rooms, has been calculated.

Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2015-04-01

The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

Origin and Ion Charge State Evolution of Solar Wind Transients 4 - 7 August 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodkin, Denis; Goryaev, Farid; Pagano, Paolo; Gibb, Gordon; Slemzin, Vladimir; Shugay, Yulia; Veselovsky, Igor; Mackay, Duncan

2017-04-01

Identification of transients and their origins on the Sun is one of the most important problems of the space weather forecasting. In our work, we present a case study of the complex event consisting of several solar wind transients detected by ACE on 4 - 7 August 2011, that caused a geomagnetic storm with Dst= - 110 nT. The supposed coronal sources - three flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occurred on 2 - 4 August 2011 in the active region AR 11261. To investigate the solar origins and formation of these transients, we studied kinematic and thermodynamic properties of expanding coronal structures using the SDO/AIA EUV images and the differential emission measure (DEM) diagnostics. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetic field maps were used as the input data for the 3D numerical model to describe the flux rope ejection. We characterize the early phase of the flux rope ejection in the corona, where the usual three-component CME structure formed. The flux rope ejected with the speed about 200 km/s to the height of 0.25 Rsun. The kinematics of the modeled CME front well agrees with the STEREO EUV measurements. Using the results of the plasma diagnostics and MHD modeling, we calculated the ion charge ratios of carbon and oxygen as well as the mean charge state of iron ions of the 2 August 2011 CME taking into account the processes of heating, cooling, expansion, ionization and recombination of the moving plasma in the corona up to the freeze-in region. We estimated a probable heating rate of the CME plasma in the low corona by matching the calculated ion composition parameters of the CME with that measured in-situ parameters of the solar wind transients. We also consider the similarities and discrepancies between the results of the MHD simulation and the observation of the event. Our results show that analysis of the ion composition of CMEs enables to disclose a relationship between parameters of the solar wind transients and properties of their solar origins, which opens new possibilities to validate and improve the solar wind forecasting models.

Measures of GCM Performance as Functions of Model Parameters Affecting Clouds and Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, C.; Mu, Q.; Sen, M.; Stoffa, P.

2002-05-01

This abstract is one of three related presentations at this meeting dealing with several issues surrounding optimal parameter and uncertainty estimation of model predictions of climate. Uncertainty in model predictions of climate depends in part on the uncertainty produced by model approximations or parameterizations of unresolved physics. Evaluating these uncertainties is computationally expensive because one needs to evaluate how arbitrary choices for any given combination of model parameters affects model performance. Because the computational effort grows exponentially with the number of parameters being investigated, it is important to choose parameters carefully. Evaluating whether a parameter is worth investigating depends on two considerations: 1) does reasonable choices of parameter values produce a large range in model response relative to observational uncertainty? and 2) does the model response depend non-linearly on various combinations of model parameters? We have decided to narrow our attention to selecting parameters that affect clouds and radiation, as it is likely that these parameters will dominate uncertainties in model predictions of future climate. We present preliminary results of ~20 to 30 AMIPII style climate model integrations using NCAR's CCM3.10 that show model performance as functions of individual parameters controlling 1) critical relative humidity for cloud formation (RHMIN), and 2) boundary layer critical Richardson number (RICR). We also explore various definitions of model performance that include some or all observational data sources (surface air temperature and pressure, meridional and zonal winds, clouds, long and short-wave cloud forcings, etc...) and evaluate in a few select cases whether the model's response depends non-linearly on the parameter values we have selected.

Identification of modal parameters including unmeasured forces and transient effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cauberghe, B.; Guillaume, P.; Verboven, P.; Parloo, E.

2003-08-01

In this paper, a frequency-domain method to estimate modal parameters from short data records with known input (measured) forces and unknown input forces is presented. The method can be used for an experimental modal analysis, an operational modal analysis (output-only data) and the combination of both. A traditional experimental and operational modal analysis in the frequency domain starts respectively, from frequency response functions and spectral density functions. To estimate these functions accurately sufficient data have to be available. The technique developed in this paper estimates the modal parameters directly from the Fourier spectra of the outputs and the known input. Instead of using Hanning windows on these short data records the transient effects are estimated simultaneously with the modal parameters. The method is illustrated, tested and validated by Monte Carlo simulations and experiments. The presented method to process short data sequences leads to unbiased estimates with a small variance in comparison to the more traditional approaches.

On the timing behaviour of PSR B1259-63 under the propeller torque from a transient accretion disc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Shu-Xu; Cheng, K. S.

2018-05-01

The γ-ray pulsar binary system PSR B1259-63 flares in GeV after each periastron. The origin of these flares is still under debate. Recently, in 2017, we proposed a mechanism that might explain the GeV flares. In that model, a transient accretion disc is expected to be formed from the matter that was gravity-captured by the neutron star from the main-sequence companion's circumstellar disc. The transient accretion disc exerts a spin-down torque on the neutron star (i.e. the propeller effect), which might be traceable via pulsar timing observations of PSR B1259-63. In this paper, we consider the propeller effect phenomenologically using a parameter χ, which describes the coupling between the disc matter and the neutron star. Comparing the expected timing residuals with recent observations by Shannon et al., we conclude that the angular momentum transfer is very weak (with the coupling parameter χ ≤ 10-4).

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

A numerical procedure for transient free surface seepage through fracture networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Qinghui; Ye, Zuyang; Zhou, Chuangbing

2014-11-01

A parabolic variational inequality (PVI) formulation is presented for the transient free surface seepage problem defined for a whole fracture network. Because the seepage faces are specified as Signorini-type conditions, the PVI formulation can effectively eliminate the singularity of spillpoints that evolve with time. By introducing a continuous penalty function to replace the original Heaviside function, a finite element procedure based on the PVI formulation is developed to predict the transient free surface response in the fracture network. The effects of the penalty parameter on the solution precision are analyzed. A relative error formula for evaluating the flow losses at steady state caused by the penalty parameter is obtained. To validate the proposed method, three typical examples are solved. The solutions for the first example are compared with the experimental results. The results from the last two examples further demonstrate that the orientation, extent and density of fractures significantly affect the free surface seepage behavior in the fracture network.

Climate and Tectonics Need Not Apply: Transient Erosion Driven by Drainage Integration, Aravaipa Creek, AZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jungers, M.; Heimsath, A. M.

2013-12-01

Periods of transient erosion during landscape evolution are most commonly attributed to fluvial systems' responses to changes in tectonic or climatic forcing. Dramatic changes in base level and sudden increases in drainage area associated with drainage reorganization can, however, drive punctuated events of incision and erosion equal in magnitude to those driven by tectonics or climate. In southeastern Arizona's Basin and Range, a mature portion of the North American physiographic province, the modern Gila River system integrates a network of previously internally drained structural basins. One basin in particular, Aravaipa Creek, is the most recent to join the broader Gila River fluvial network. Following drainage integration, Aravaipa Creek rapidly incised to equilibrate with its new, much lower, base level. In doing so, it carved Aravaipa Canyon, excavated a large volume of sedimentary basin fill, and captured drainage area from the still internally drained Sulphur Springs basin. Importantly, this dramatic episode of transient incision and erosion was the result of drainage integration alone. We hypothesize that the adjustment time for Aravaipa Creek was shorter than the timescale of any climate forcing, and regional extensional tectonics were quiescent at the time of integration. We can, therefore, explicitly quantify the magnitude of transient incision and erosion driven by drainage reorganization. We use remnants of the paleo-basin surface and modern landscape elevations to reconstruct the pre-drainage integration topography of Aravaipa Creek basin. Doing so enables us to quantify the magnitude of incision driven by drainage reorganization as well as the volume of material eroded from the basin subsequent to integration. Key control points for our landscape reconstruction are: (1) the inferred elevation of the spillover point between Aravaipa Creek and the San Pedro River; (2) Quaternary pediment-capping gravels above Aravaipa Canyon (3) perched remnants of late stage sedimentary basin fill that preserve the slope of the pre-incision piedmonts of the Galiuro Mountains and Santa Teresa Mountains; and (4) the paleo-drainage divide between Aravaipa Creek and Sulphur Springs Valley, approximately 6 km northwest of the modern divide. The pre-incision basin surface sloped from the Sulphur Springs divide (1370 m) to its intersection with the point of integration (1100 m) between Aravaipa Creek and the San Pedro River, 50 km to the northwest. Maximum incision of 450 m occurred in the vicinity of Aravaipa Canyon, and more than 50 cubic kilometers of material have been eroded from Aravaipa Creek basin. Finally, cosmogenic nuclide burial dates for latest stage sedimentary basin fill enable us to constrain the timing of drainage integration and place first-order constraints on paleo-erosion rates.

Importance of determining the climatic domains of sheep breeds.

PubMed

Petit, D; Boujenane, I

2018-07-01

The main purpose of the study was to compare the capacity of the major sheep breeds in Morocco to cope with climate changes through the ranges of several climate parameters in which they can be found. We first delimitated the climatic 'domains' of each breed by constructing a database including altitude and climatic parameters (minima mean of the coldest month, maxima mean of the hottest month, annual rainfall, pluviothermic coefficient of Emberger Q 2, annual minima mean and annual maxima mean) on a 30-year period using the representative stations of each breed distribution. The overlap between each breed combination was quantified through a canonical analysis that extracted the most discriminant parameters. The variance analysis of each climatic parameter evidenced two breeds remarkable by their tolerance. The first one is the Timahdite, mainly settled in areas over 1100 m, which can tolerate the greatest variations in annual rainfall and pluviothermic coefficient. In spite of this feature, this breed is endangered owing to the decreasing quality of pastures. The second one is the D'man which apparently can support high variations in extreme temperatures. In fact, this breed is not well adapted to pastures and requires a special microclimate offered by oases. The information reported in this study will be the basis for the establishment of characterization and selection strategies for Moroccan sheep.

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic soil water balance under seasonal climates

PubMed Central

Feng, Xue; Porporato, Amilcare; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2015-01-01

The analysis of soil water partitioning in seasonally dry climates necessarily requires careful consideration of the periodic climatic forcing at the intra-annual timescale in addition to daily scale variabilities. Here, we introduce three new extensions to a stochastic soil moisture model which yields seasonal evolution of soil moisture and relevant hydrological fluxes. These approximations allow seasonal climatic forcings (e.g. rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) to be fully resolved, extending the analysis of soil water partitioning to account explicitly for the seasonal amplitude and the phase difference between the climatic forcings. The results provide accurate descriptions of probabilistic soil moisture dynamics under seasonal climates without requiring extensive numerical simulations. We also find that the transfer of soil moisture between the wet to the dry season is responsible for hysteresis in the hydrological response, showing asymmetrical trajectories in the mean soil moisture and in the transient Budyko's curves during the ‘dry-down‘ versus the ‘rewetting‘ phases of the year. Furthermore, in some dry climates where rainfall and potential evapotranspiration are in-phase, annual evapotranspiration can be shown to increase because of inter-seasonal soil moisture transfer, highlighting the importance of soil water storage in the seasonal context. PMID:25663808

Generalized reciprocity theorem for semiconductor devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Misiakos, K.; Lindholm, F. A.

1985-01-01

A reciprocity theorem is presented that relates the short-circuit current of a device, induced by a carrier generation source, to the minority-carrier Fermi level in the dark. The basic relation is general under low injection. It holds for three-dimensional devices with position dependent parameters (energy gap, electron affinity, mobility, etc.), and for transient or steady-state conditions. This theorem allows calculation of the internal quantum efficiency of a solar cell by using the analysis of the device in the dark. Other applications could involve measurements of various device parameters, interfacial surface recombination velocity at a polcrystalline silicon emitter contact, for rexample, by using steady-state or transient photon or mass-particle radiation.

RACLETTE: a model for evaluating the thermal response of plasma facing components to slow high power plasma transients. Part II: Analysis of ITER plasma facing components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federici, Gianfranco; Raffray, A. René

1997-04-01

The transient thermal model RACLETTE (acronym of Rate Analysis Code for pLasma Energy Transfer Transient Evaluation) described in part I of this paper is applied here to analyse the heat transfer and erosion effects of various slow (100 ms-10 s) high power energy transients on the actively cooled plasma facing components (PFCs) of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). These have a strong bearing on the PFC design and need careful analysis. The relevant parameters affecting the heat transfer during the plasma excursions are established. The temperature variation with time and space is evaluated together with the extent of vaporisation and melting (the latter only for metals) for the different candidate armour materials considered for the design (i.e., Be for the primary first wall, Be and CFCs for the limiter, Be, W, and CFCs for the divertor plates) and including for certain cases low-density vapour shielding effects. The critical heat flux, the change of the coolant parameters and the possible severe degradation of the coolant heat removal capability that could result under certain conditions during these transients, for example for the limiter, are also evaluated. Based on the results, the design implications on the heat removal performance and erosion damage of the variuos ITER PFCs are critically discussed and some recommendations are made for the selection of the most adequate protection materials and optimum armour thickness.

Solar Wind Plasma Flows and Space Weather Aspects Recent Solar Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaushik, Sonia; Kaushik, Subhash Chandra

2016-07-01

Solar transients are responsible for initiating short - term and long - term variations in earth's magnetosphere. These variations are termed as geomagnetic disturbances, and driven by the interaction of solar wind features with the geo-magnetosphere. The strength of this modulation process depends upon the magnitude and orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field and solar wind parameters. These interplanetary transients are large scale structures containing plasma and magnetic field expelled from the transient active regions of solar atmosphere. As they come to interplanetary medium the interplanetary magnetic field drape around them. This field line draping was thought as possible cause of the characteristic eastward deflection and giving rise to geomagnetic activities as well as a prime factor in producing the modulation effects in the near Earth environment. The Solar cycle 23 has exhibited the unique extended minima and peculiar effects in the geomagnetosphere. Selecting such transients, occurred during this interval, an attempt has been made to determine quantitative relationships of these transients with solar/ interplanetary and Geophysical Parameters. In this work we used hourly values of IMF data obtained from the NSSD Center. The analysis mainly based on looking into the effects of these transients on earth's magnetic field. The high-resolution data IMF Bz and solar wind data obtained from WDC-A, through its omniweb, available during the selected period. Dst and Ap obtained from WDC-Kyoto are taken as indicator of geomagnetic activities. It is found that Dst index, solar wind velocity, proton temperature and the Bz component of magnetic field have higher values and increase just before the occurrence of these events. Larger and varying magnetic field mainly responsible for producing the short-term changes in geomagnetic intensity are observed during these events associated with coronal holes.

Analyses of the stratospheric dynamics simulated by a GCM with a stochastic nonorographic gravity wave parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serva, Federico; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Riccio, Angelo

2016-04-01

The effects of the propagation and breaking of atmospheric gravity waves have long been considered crucial for their impact on the circulation, especially in the stratosphere and mesosphere, between heights of 10 and 110 km. These waves, that in the Earth's atmosphere originate from surface orography (OGWs) or from transient (nonorographic) phenomena such as fronts and convective processes (NOGWs), have horizontal wavelengths between 10 and 1000 km, vertical wavelengths of several km, and frequencies spanning from minutes to hours. Orographic and nonorographic GWs must be accounted for in climate models to obtain a realistic simulation of the stratosphere in both hemispheres, since they can have a substantial impact on circulation and temperature, hence an important role in ozone chemistry for chemistry-climate models. Several types of parameterization are currently employed in models, differing in the formulation and for the values assigned to parameters, but the common aim is to quantify the effect of wave breaking on large-scale wind and temperature patterns. In the last decade, both global observations from satellite-borne instruments and the outputs of very high resolution climate models provided insight on the variability and properties of gravity wave field, and these results can be used to constrain some of the empirical parameters present in most parameterization scheme. A feature of the NOGW forcing that clearly emerges is the intermittency, linked with the nature of the sources: this property is absent in the majority of the models, in which NOGW parameterizations are uncoupled with other atmospheric phenomena, leading to results which display lower variability compared to observations. In this work, we analyze the climate simulated in AMIP runs of the MAECHAM5 model, which uses the Hines NOGW parameterization and with a fine vertical resolution suitable to capture the effects of wave-mean flow interaction. We compare the results obtained with two version of the model, the default and a new stochastic version, in which the value of the perturbation field at launching level is not constant and uniform, but extracted at each time-step and grid-point from a given PDF. With this approach we are trying to add further variability to the effects given by the deterministic NOGW parameterization: the impact on the simulated climate will be assessed focusing on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of the equatorial stratosphere (known to be driven also by gravity waves) and on the variability of the mid-to-high latitudes atmosphere. The different characteristics of the circulation will be compared with recent reanalysis products in order to determine the advantages of the stochastic approach over the traditional deterministic scheme.

A stochastic multicloud convective parameterization in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) : implementation and calibration.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, B. B.; Khouider, B.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A stochastic multicloud (SMCM) cumulus parameterization is implemented in the National Centres for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model, named as the CFSsmcm model. We present here results from a systematic attempt to understand the CFSsmcm model's sensitivity to the SMCM parameters. To asses the model-sentivity to the different SMCM parameters, we have analized a set of 14 5-year long climate simulations produced by the CFSsmcm model. The model is found to be resilient to minor changes in the parameter values. The middle tropospheric dryness (MTD) and the stratiform cloud decay timescale are found to be most crucial parameters in the SMCM formulation in the CFSsmcm model.

40 CFR Appendix I to Part 94 - Emission-Related Engine Parameters and Specifications

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

.... Temperature control system calibration. 4. Maximum allowable inlet air restriction. III. Fuel System. 1. General. a. Engine idle speed. 2. Fuel injection—compression ignition engines. a. Control parameters and calibrations. b. Transient enrichment system calibration. c. Air-fuel flow calibration. d. Altitude...

40 CFR Appendix I to Part 94 - Emission-Related Engine Parameters and Specifications

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

.... Temperature control system calibration. 4. Maximum allowable inlet air restriction. III. Fuel System. 1. General. a. Engine idle speed. 2. Fuel injection—compression ignition engines. a. Control parameters and calibrations. b. Transient enrichment system calibration. c. Air-fuel flow calibration. d. Altitude...

40 CFR Appendix I to Part 94 - Emission-Related Engine Parameters and Specifications

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

.... Temperature control system calibration. 4. Maximum allowable inlet air restriction. III. Fuel System. 1. General. a. Engine idle speed. 2. Fuel injection—compression ignition engines. a. Control parameters and calibrations. b. Transient enrichment system calibration. c. Air-fuel flow calibration. d. Altitude...

40 CFR Appendix I to Part 94 - Emission-Related Engine Parameters and Specifications

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... Temperature control system calibration. 4. Maximum allowable inlet air restriction. III. Fuel System. 1. General. a. Engine idle speed. 2. Fuel injection—compression ignition engines. a. Control parameters and calibrations. b. Transient enrichment system calibration. c. Air-fuel flow calibration. d. Altitude...

Consistency and Main Differences Between European Regional Climate Downscaling Intercomparison Results; From PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES to CORDEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, J. H.; Larsen, M. A. D.; Christensen, O. B.; Drews, M.

2017-12-01

For more than 20 years, coordinated efforts to apply regional climate models to downscale GCM simulations for Europe have been pursued by an ever increasing group of scientists. This endeavor showed its first results during EU framework supported projects such as RACCS and MERCURE. Here, the foundation for today's advanced worldwide CORDEX approach was laid out by a core of six research teams, who conducted some of the first coordinated RCM simulations with the aim to assess regional climate change for Europe. However, it was realized at this stage that model bias in GCMs as well as RCMs made this task very challenging. As an immediate outcome, the idea was conceived to make an even more coordinated effort by constructing a well-defined and structured set of common simulations; this lead to the PRUDENCE project (2001-2004). Additional coordinated efforts involving ever increasing numbers of GCMs and RCMs followed in ENSEMBLES (2004-2009) and the ongoing Euro-CORDEX (officially commenced 2011) efforts. Along with the overall coordination, simulations have increased their standard resolution from 50km (PRUDENCE) to about 12km (Euro-CORDEX) and from time slice simulations (PRUDENCE) to transient experiments (ENSEMBLES and CORDEX); from one driving model and emission scenario (PRUDENCE) to several (Euro-CORDEX). So far, this wealth of simulations have been used to assess the potential impacts of future climate change in Europe providing a baseline change as defined by a multi-model mean change with associated uncertainties calculated from model spread in the ensemble. But how has the overall picture of state-of-the-art regional climate change projections changed over this period of almost two decades? Here we compare across scenarios, model resolutions and model vintage the results from PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and Euro-CORDEX. By appropriate scaling we identify robust findings about the projected future of European climate expressed by temperature and precipitation changes that confirm the basic findings of PRUDENCE. For parameters such as snow cover and soil moisture availability we also identify major new results, which illustrate that model improvements and higher resolution offer new, physically grounded, robust information that could not have been identified twenty years ago with the approach taken at that time

Uncertainty squared: Choosing among multiple input probability distributions and interpreting multiple output probability distributions in Monte Carlo climate risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, P.; Mastrandrea, M.

2006-12-01

Simple probabilistic models which attempt to estimate likely transient temperature change from specified CO2 emissions scenarios must make assumptions about at least six uncertain aspects of the causal chain between emissions and temperature: current radiative forcing (including but not limited to aerosols), current land use emissions, carbon sinks, future non-CO2 forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate sensitivity. Of these, multiple PDFs (probability density functions) have been published for the climate sensitivity, a couple for current forcing and ocean heat uptake, one for future non-CO2 forcing, and none for current land use emissions or carbon cycle uncertainty (which are interdependent). Different assumptions about these parameters, as well as different model structures, will lead to different estimates of likely temperature increase from the same emissions pathway. Thus policymakers will be faced with a range of temperature probability distributions for the same emissions scenarios, each described by a central tendency and spread. Because our conventional understanding of uncertainty and probability requires that a probabilistically defined variable of interest have only a single mean (or median, or modal) value and a well-defined spread, this "multidimensional" uncertainty defies straightforward utilization in policymaking. We suggest that there are no simple solutions to the questions raised. Crucially, we must dispel the notion that there is a "true" probability probabilities of this type are necessarily subjective, and reasonable people may disagree. Indeed, we suggest that what is at stake is precisely the question, what is it reasonable to believe, and to act as if we believe? As a preliminary suggestion, we demonstrate how the output of a simple probabilistic climate model might be evaluated regarding the reasonableness of the outputs it calculates with different input PDFs. We suggest further that where there is insufficient evidence to clearly favor one range of probabilistic projections over another, that the choice of results on which to base policy must necessarily involve ethical considerations, as they have inevitable consequences for the distribution of risk In particular, the choice to use a more "optimistic" PDF for climate sensitivity (or other components of the causal chain) leads to the allowance of higher emissions consistent with any specified goal for risk reduction, and thus leads to higher climate impacts, in exchange for lower mitigation costs.

Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, R. T.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in ocean circulation due to parameter specification will be described and early results using the ocean/ice components of the CCSM climate model in a designed experiment framework will be shown. Cox, P. and D. Stephenson, Climate Change: A Changing Climate for Prediction, 2007, Science 317 (5835), 207, DOI: 10.1126/science.1145956. Rougier, J. C., 2007: Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations, Climatic Change, 81, 247-264. Smith L., 2002, What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. Nat’l Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, suppl. 1, 2487-2492 doi:10.1073/pnas.012580599.

Impacts of northern Tibetan Plateau on East Asian summer rainfall via modulating midlatitude transient eddies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Jiechun; Xu, Haiming; Shi, Ning; Zhang, Leying; Ma, Jing

2017-08-01

Roles of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in forming and changing the seasonal Asian climate system have been widely explored. However, little is known about modulation effects of the TP on extratropical transient eddies (TEs) and subsequent synoptic responses of the East Asian rainfall. In this study, the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.1 coupled with a slab ocean model is employed to highlight the important role of the TP in regulating the upper-tropospheric transient wave train. Comparison between sensitivity experiments with and without the TP shows that the northern TP excites a strong anomalous anticyclone, which shifts the upper-level East Asian westerly jet northward and helps transfer barotropic and baroclinic energy from the mean flow to the synoptic TE flow. The transient wave train is primarily shifted northward by northern TP and is forced to propagate southeastward along the eastern flank of the TP until reaching eastern China. Before the strengthening of monsoonal southerlies, the TP-modulated transient wave train cools the troposphere, which decreases the static stability over northern China. Meanwhile, the associated anomalous warm advection induces ascending motion, leading to excessive rainfall by releasing unstable energy as the southerly strengthens. Due to the southeastward propagation of the wave train, anomalous heavy rainfall subsequently appears over eastern China from north to south, which increases day-to-day rainfall variation in this region. Additionally, occurrence of this upper-tropospheric transient wave train associated with low-level southerly peak is substantially increased by northern TP.

Changes in environment, climate, land-use and population growth cause significant change in recharge on the western coast of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Angela; Weiß, Johannes

2013-04-01

Changes in climate, land-use and population do not necessarily lead to groundwater depletion, but could instead result in rising groundwater levels, which can cause severe problems. In the course of the refurbishment and expansion programme for the Holy City of Mecca (KSA), Jeddah Airport is being expanded to a greater capacity; in addition, rapid development of residential areas of Jeddah is underway. During the last, decade flash floods and rising groundwater levels have been observed. The latter are affecting the foundations of buildings due to uplift and corrosion by highly mineralized water. The primary objective of this study is investigate the causes of groundwater rise and to propose appropriate measures in order to keep the groundwater table below an acceptable level over the next 100 years. Groundwater hydrographs clearly show impacts of natural climatic and hydrologic changes over the last 30 years. Possibly reasons for groundwater rise in this arid area are climatic impacts by increased precipitation or from an enhanced recharge via wadi leakage or flood control reservoirs. In addition, anthropogenic impacts might arise from leakages from water supply and waste water systems. In order to identify and quantify possible contributions to groundwater recharge, a numerical groundwater model has been developed comprising a sound investigation of the local water balance. The model addresses an area of approximately 900 km around the city of Jeddah, reaching from the Red Sea to the catchment boundaries of adjacent wadis. Vertically three layers of alluvium, fractured and weathered rock are integrated. Information from many shallow boreholes and some deep boreholes comprising stratigraphy and hydraulic parameters is incorporated. The spatial distribution of recharge is taken from the analysis of existing and planned water supply and waste water networks. Knowledge from geophysical investigations about aquifer thickness and permeability was used for the transient calibration. Thus, from the groundwater rise with known storage coefficients the leakage was estimated and checked for plausibility. Model evaluation and sensitivity analysis include the identification of key model parameters, the parameter ranges for the prediction of groundwater levels and the characterization of associated uncertainties. The modelling results show that indeed the anthropogenic recharge caused by leakage from water infrastructure is the most important source of groundwater level rise. Thus, to improve model accuracy, a methodology is needed to cope with limited data availability regarding the leakage from pipelines. For the design of future management strategies, modelling scenarios are used to quantify the factors with possible impacts on groundwater levels, including Red Sea water level rise due to climate change, as well as potentially significant changes in land use, water distribution systems, waste water management, storm water and flood control, and irrigation. The model results are used for the design of a field-based groundwater and surface water monitoring system. Based on these measurements, a decision support system for future groundwater control is planned to be integrated into the upgrade of the water and waste water master plan.

Engineering Inertial and Primary-Frequency Response for Distributed Energy Resources: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Zhao, Changhong; Guggilam, Swaroop

We propose a framework to engineer synthetic-inertia and droop-control parameters for distributed energy resources (DERs) so that the system frequency in a network composed of DERs and synchronous generators conforms to prescribed transient and steady-state performance specifications. Our approach is grounded in a second-order lumped-parameter model that captures the dynamics of synchronous generators and frequency-responsive DERs endowed with inertial and droop control. A key feature of this reduced-order model is that its parameters can be related to those of the originating higher-order dynamical model. This allows one to systematically design the DER inertial and droop-control coefficients leveraging classical frequency-domain responsemore » characteristics of second-order systems. Time-domain simulations validate the accuracy of the model-reduction method and demonstrate how DER controllers can be designed to meet steady-state-regulation and transient-performance specifications.« less

Engineering Inertial and Primary-Frequency Response for Distributed Energy Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall-Anese, Emiliano; Zhao, Changhong; Guggilam, Swaroop

We propose a framework to engineer synthetic-inertia and droop-control parameters for distributed energy resources (DERs) so that the system frequency in a network composed of DERs and synchronous generators conforms to prescribed transient and steady-state performance specifications. Our approach is grounded in a second-order lumped-parameter model that captures the dynamics of synchronous generators and frequency-responsive DERs endowed with inertial and droop control. A key feature of this reduced-order model is that its parameters can be related to those of the originating higherorder dynamical model. This allows one to systematically design the DER inertial and droop-control coefficients leveraging classical frequency-domain responsemore » characteristics of second-order systems. Time-domain simulations validate the accuracy of the model-reduction method and demonstrate how DER controllers can be designed to meet steady-state-regulation and transient-performance specifications.« less

Transient storage assessments of dye-tracer injections in rivers of the Willamette Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laenen, A.; Bencala, K.E.

2001-01-01

Rhodamine WT dye-tracer injections in rivers of the Willamette Basin yield concentration-time curves with characteristically long recession times suggestive of active transient storage processes. The scale of drainage areas contributing to the stream reaches studied in the Willamette Basin ranges from 10 to 12,000 km2. A transient storage assessment of the tracer studies has been completed using the U.S. Geological Survey's One-dimensional Transport with Inflow and Storage (OTIS) model, which incorporates storage exchange and decay functions along with the traditional dispersion and advection transport equation. The analysis estimates solute transport of the dye. It identifies first-order decay coefficients to be on the order of 10-5/sec for the nonconservative Rhodamine WT. On an individual subreach basis, the first-order decay is slower (typically by an order of magnitude) than the transient storage process, indicating that nonconservative tracers may be used to evaluate transient storage in rivers. In the transient storage analysis, a dimensionless parameter (As/A) expresses the spatial extent of storage zone area relative to stream cross section. In certain reaches of Willamette Basin pool-and-riffle, gravel-bed rivers, this parameter was as large as 0.5. A measure of the storage exchange flux was calculated for each stream subreach in the simulation analysis. This storage exchange is shown subjectively to be higher at higher stream discharges. Hyporheic linkage between streams and subsurface flows is the probable physical mechanism contributing to a significant part of this inferred active transient storage. Hyporheic linkages are further suggested by detailed measurements of river discharge with an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler system delineating zones in two large rivers where water alternately enters and leaves the surface channels through graveland-cobble riverbeds. Measurements show patterns of hyporheic exchange that are highly variable in time and space.

Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

2009-05-01

Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

Atmospheric dynamical changes as a contributor to deglacial climate variability: results from an ensemble of transient deglacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Heather; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

The atmosphere is often assumed to play a passive role in centennial- to millennial-timescale climate variations of the last deglaciation due to its short response times ( years) and the absence of abrupt changes in external climate forcings. Nevertheless, atmospheric dynamical responses to changes in ice sheet topography and albedo can affect the entire Northern Hemisphere through the altering of Rossby stationary wave patterns and changes to the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. These responses appear sensitive to the particular configuration of Northern Hemisphere land ice, so small changes have the potential to reorganize atmospheric circulation with impacts on precipitation distributions, ocean surface currents and sea ice extent. Indirect proxy evidence, idealized theoretical studies, and "snapshot" simulations performed at different periods during the last glacial cycle indicate that between the Last Glacial Maximum and the preindustrial period the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet weakened, became less zonally-oriented, and exhibited greater variability. How the transition (or transitions) between the glacial atmospheric state and the interglacial state occurred is less clear. To address this question, we performed an ensemble of transient simulations of the last deglaciation using the Planet Simulator coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation-sea ice model (PlaSim, at an atmospheric resolution of T42) forced by variants of the GLAC1-D deglacial ice sheet chronology. We characterize simulated changes in stationary wave patterns over this period as well as changes in the strength and position of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. In particular, we document the range of timescales for these changes and compare the simulated climate signatures of these transitions to data archives of precipitation and sea ice extent.

Assessing anthropogenic impacts on limited water resources under semi-arid conditions: three-dimensional transient regional modelling in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödiger, Tino; Magri, Fabien; Geyer, Stefan; Morandage, Shehan Tharaka; Ali Subah, H. E.; Alraggad, Marwan; Siebert, Christian

2017-11-01

Both increasing aridity and population growth strongly stress freshwater resources in semi-arid areas such as Jordan. The country's second largest governorate, Irbid, with over 1 million inhabitants, is already suffering from an annual water deficit of 25 million cubic meters (MCM). The population is expected to double within the next 20 years. Even without the large number of refugees from Syria, the deficit will likely increase to more then 50 MCM per year by 2035 The Governorate's exclusive resource is groundwater, abstracted by the extensive Al Arab and Kufr Asad well fields. This study presents the first three-dimensional transient regional groundwater flow model of the entire Wadi al Arab to answer important questions regarding the dynamic quality and availability of water within the catchment. Emphasis is given to the calculation and validation of the dynamic groundwater recharge, derived from a multi-proxy approach, including (1) a hydrological model covering a 30-years dataset, (2) groundwater level measurements and (3) information about springs. The model enables evaluation of the impact of abstraction on the flow regime and the groundwater budget of the resource. Sensitivity analyses of controlling parameters indicate that intense abstraction in the southern part of the Wadi al Arab system can result in critical water-level drops of 10 m at a distance of 16 km from the production wells. Moreover, modelling results suggest that observed head fluctuations are strongly controlled by anthropogenic abstraction rather than variable recharge rates due to climate changes.

Explanatory ecological factors for the persistence of desiccation-sensitive seeds in transient soil seed banks: Quercus ilex as a case study

PubMed Central

Joët, Thierry; Ourcival, Jean-Marc; Capelli, Mathilde; Dussert, Stéphane; Morin, Xavier

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Dominant tree species in northern temperate forests, for example oak and beech, produce desiccation-sensitive seeds. Despite the potentially major influence of this functional trait on the regeneration and distribution of species under climate change, little is currently known about the ecological determinants of the persistence of desiccation-sensitive seeds in transient soil seed banks. Knowing which key climatic and microsite factors favour seed survival will help define the regeneration niche for species whose seeds display extreme sensitivity to environmental stress Methods Using the Mediterranean Holm oak (Quercus ilex) forest as a model system, an in situ time-course monitoring of seed water status and viability was performed during the unfavourable winter season in two years with contrasting rainfall, at an instrumented site with detailed climate records. In parallel, the characteristics of the microhabitat and their influence on the post-winter water status and viability of seeds were investigated in a regional survey of 33 woodlands representative of the French distribution of the species. Key Results Time-course monitoring of seed water status in natural conditions confirmed that in situ desiccation is the main abiotic cause of mortality in winter. Critical water contents could be reached in a few days during drought spells. Seed dehydration rates were satisfactorily estimated using integrative climate proxies including vapour pressure deficit and potential evapotranspiration. Seed water status was therefore determined by the balance between water uptake after a rainfall event and water loss during dry periods. Structural equation modelling of microhabitat factors highlighted the major influence of canopy openness and resulting incident radiation on the ground. Conclusions This study provides part of the knowledge required to implement species distribution models which incorporate their regeneration niche. It is an important step forward in evaluating the ecological consequences of increasing winter drought and environmental filtering due to climate change on the regeneration of the most dominant Mediterranean tree species. PMID:26420203

Determination of the diffusion coefficient and phase-transfer rate parameter in LaNi{sub 5} and MmNi{sub 3.6}Co{sub 0.8}Mn{sub 0.4}Al{sub 0.3} using microelectrodes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lundqvist, A.; Lindbergh, G.

1998-11-01

A potential-step method for determining the diffusion coefficient and phase-transfer parameter in metal hydrides by using microelectrodes was investigated. It was shown that a large potential step is not enough to ensure a completely diffusion-limited mass transfer if a surface-phase transfer reaction takes place at a finite rate. It was shown, using a kinetic expression for the surface phase-transfer reaction, that the slope of the logarithm of the current vs. time curve will be constant both in the case of the mass-transfer limited by diffusion or by diffusion and a surface-phase transfer. The diffusion coefficient and phase-transfer rate parameter weremore » accurately determined for MmNi{sub 3.6}Co{sub 0.8}Mn{sub 0.4}Al{sub 0.3} using a fit to the whole transient. The diffusion coefficient was found to be (1.3 {+-} 0.3) {times} 10{sup {minus}13} m{sup 2}/s. The fit was good and showed that a pure diffusion model was not enough to explain the observed transient. The diffusion coefficient and phase-transfer rate parameter were also estimated for pure LaNi{sub 5}. A fit of the whole curve showed that neither a pure diffusion model nor a model including phase transfer could explain the whole transient.« less

Dual Transformer Model based on Standard Circuit Elements for the Study of Low- and Mid-frequency Transients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jazebi, Saeed

This thesis is a step forward toward achieving the final objective of creating a fully dual model for transformers including eddy currents and nonlinearities of the iron core using the fundamental electrical components already available in the EMTP-type programs. The model is effective for the study of the performance of transformers during power system transients. This is very important for transformer designers, because the insulation of transformers is determined with the overvoltages caused by lightning or switching operations. There are also internally induced transients that occur when a switch is actuated. For example switching actions for reconfiguration of distribution systems that offers economic advantages, or protective actions to clear faults and large short-circuit currents. Many of the smart grid concepts currently under development by many utilities rely heavily on switching to optimize resources that produce transients in the system. On the other hand, inrush currents produce mechanical forces which deform transformer windings and cause malfunction of the differential protection. Also, transformer performance under ferroresonance and geomagnetic induced currents are necessary to study. In this thesis, a physically consistent dual model applicable to single-phase two-winding transformers is proposed. First, the topology of a dual electrical equivalent circuit is obtained from the direct application of the principle of duality. Then, the model parameters are computed considering the variations of the transformer electromagnetic behavior under various operating conditions. Current modeling techniques use different topological models to represent diverse transient situations. The reversible model proposed in this thesis unifies the terminal and topological equivalent circuits. The model remains invariable for all low-frequency transients including deep saturation conditions driven from any of the two windings. The very high saturation region of the iron core magnetizing characteristic is modified with the accurate measurement of the air-core inductance. The air-core inductance is measured using a non-ideal low-power rectifier. Its dc output serves to drive the transformer into deep saturation, and its ripple provides low-amplitude variable excitation. The principal advantage of this method is its simplicity. To model the eddy current effects in the windings, a novel equivalent circuit is proposed. The circuit is derived from the principle of duality and therefore, matches the electromagnetic physical behavior of the transformer windings. It properly models the flux paths and current distribution from dc to MHz. The model is synthesized from a non-uniform concentric discretization of the windings. Concise guidelines are given to optimally calculate the width of the sub-divisions for various transient simulations. To compute the circuit parameters only information about the geometry of the windings and about their material properties is needed. The calculation of the circuit parameters does not require an iterative process. Therefore, the parameters are always real, positive, and free from convergence problems. The proposed model is tested with single-phase transformers for the calculation of magnetizing inrush currents, series ferroresonance, and Geomagnetic Induced Currents (GIC). The electromagnetic transient response of the model is compared to laboratory measurements for validation. Also, 3D finite element simulations are used to validate the electromagnetic behavior of the transformer model. Large manufacturer of transformers, power system designers, and electrical utility companies can benefit from the new model. It simplifies the design and optimization of the transformers' insulation, thereby reducing cost, and enhancing reliability of the system. The model could also be used for inrush current and differential protection studies, geomagnetic induced current studies, harmonic penetration studies, and switching transient studies.

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

PubMed

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Bias and robustness of uncertainty components estimates in transient climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hingray, Benoit; Blanchet, Juliette; Jean-Philippe, Vidal

2016-04-01

A critical issue in climate change studies is the estimation of uncertainties in projections along with the contribution of the different uncertainty sources, including scenario uncertainty, the different components of model uncertainty and internal variability. Quantifying the different uncertainty sources faces actually different problems. For instance and for the sake of simplicity, an estimate of model uncertainty is classically obtained from the empirical variance of the climate responses obtained for the different modeling chains. These estimates are however biased. Another difficulty arises from the limited number of members that are classically available for most modeling chains. In this case, the climate response of one given chain and the effect of its internal variability may be actually difficult if not impossible to separate. The estimate of scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty and internal variability components are thus likely to be not really robust. We explore the importance of the bias and the robustness of the estimates for two classical Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) approaches: a Single Time approach (STANOVA), based on the only data available for the considered projection lead time and a time series based approach (QEANOVA), which assumes quasi-ergodicity of climate outputs over the whole available climate simulation period (Hingray and Saïd, 2014). We explore both issues for a simple but classical configuration where uncertainties in projections are composed of two single sources: model uncertainty and internal climate variability. The bias in model uncertainty estimates is explored from theoretical expressions of unbiased estimators developed for both ANOVA approaches. The robustness of uncertainty estimates is explored for multiple synthetic ensembles of time series projections generated with MonteCarlo simulations. For both ANOVA approaches, when the empirical variance of climate responses is used to estimate model uncertainty, the bias is always positive. It can be especially high with STANOVA. In the most critical configurations, when the number of members available for each modeling chain is small (< 3) and when internal variability explains most of total uncertainty variance (75% or more), the overestimation is higher than 100% of the true model uncertainty variance. The bias can be considerably reduced with a time series ANOVA approach, owing to the multiple time steps accounted for. The longer the transient time period used for the analysis, the larger the reduction. When a quasi-ergodic ANOVA approach is applied to decadal data for the whole 1980-2100 period, the bias is reduced by a factor 2.5 to 20 depending on the projection lead time. In all cases, the bias is likely to be not negligible for a large number of climate impact studies resulting in a likely large overestimation of the contribution of model uncertainty to total variance. For both approaches, the robustness of all uncertainty estimates is higher when more members are available, when internal variability is smaller and/or the response-to-uncertainty ratio is higher. QEANOVA estimates are much more robust than STANOVA ones: QEANOVA simulated confidence intervals are roughly 3 to 5 times smaller than STANOVA ones. Excepted for STANOVA when less than 3 members is available, the robustness is rather high for total uncertainty and moderate for internal variability estimates. For model uncertainty or response-to-uncertainty ratio estimates, the robustness is conversely low for QEANOVA to very low for STANOVA. In the most critical configurations (small number of member, large internal variability), large over- or underestimation of uncertainty components is very thus likely. To propose relevant uncertainty analyses and avoid misleading interpretations, estimates of uncertainty components should be therefore bias corrected and ideally come with estimates of their robustness. This work is part of the COMPLEX Project (European Collaborative Project FP7-ENV-2012 number: 308601; http://www.complex.ac.uk/). Hingray, B., Saïd, M., 2014. Partitioning internal variability and model uncertainty components in a multimodel multireplicate ensemble of climate projections. J.Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00629.1 Hingray, B., Blanchet, J. (revision) Unbiased estimators for uncertainty components in transient climate projections. J. Climate Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Vidal, J.P. (revision) Robustness of uncertainty components estimates in climate projections. J.Climate

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Computer animation of modal and transient vibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipman, Robert R.

1987-01-01

An interactive computer graphics processor is described that is capable of generating input to animate modal and transient vibrations of finite element models on an interactive graphics system. The results from NASTRAN can be postprocessed such that a three dimensional wire-frame picture, in perspective, of the finite element mesh is drawn on the graphics display. Modal vibrations of any mode shape or transient motions over any range of steps can be animated. The finite element mesh can be color-coded by any component of displacement. Viewing parameters and the rate of vibration of the finite element model can be interactively updated while the structure is vibrating.

Stepwise and Pulse Transient Methods of Thermophysical Parameters Measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinarič, Svetozár; Dieška, Peter

2016-12-01

Stepwise transient and pulse transient methods are experimental techniques for measuring the thermal diffusivity and conductivity of solid materials. Theoretical models and experimental apparatus are presented, and the influence of the heat source capacity and the heat transfer coefficient is investigated using the experiment simulation. The specimens from low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) were measured by both methods. Coefficients of variation were better than 0.9 % for LDPE and 2.8 % for PMMA measurements. The time dependence of the temperature response to the input heat flux showed a small drop, which was caused by thermoelastic wave generated by thermal expansions of the heat source.

Cortical cholinergic signaling controls the detection of cues

PubMed Central

Gritton, Howard J.; Howe, William M.; Mallory, Caitlin S.; Hetrick, Vaughn L.; Berke, Joshua D.; Sarter, Martin

2016-01-01

The cortical cholinergic input system has been described as a neuromodulator system that influences broadly defined behavioral and brain states. The discovery of phasic, trial-based increases in extracellular choline (transients), resulting from the hydrolysis of newly released acetylcholine (ACh), in the cortex of animals reporting the presence of cues suggests that ACh may have a more specialized role in cognitive processes. Here we expressed channelrhodopsin or halorhodopsin in basal forebrain cholinergic neurons of mice with optic fibers directed into this region and prefrontal cortex. Cholinergic transients, evoked in accordance with photostimulation parameters determined in vivo, were generated in mice performing a task necessitating the reporting of cue and noncue events. Generating cholinergic transients in conjunction with cues enhanced cue detection rates. Moreover, generating transients in noncued trials, where cholinergic transients normally are not observed, increased the number of invalid claims for cues. Enhancing hits and generating false alarms both scaled with stimulation intensity. Suppression of endogenous cholinergic activity during cued trials reduced hit rates. Cholinergic transients may be essential for synchronizing cortical neuronal output driven by salient cues and executing cue-guided responses. PMID:26787867

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Weather chains during the 2013/2014 winter and their significance for seasonal prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies, Huw C.

2015-11-01

Day-to-day weather forecasting has improved substantially over the past few decades. In contrast, progress in seasonal prediction outside the tropics has been meagre and mixed. On seasonal timescales, the constraining influence of the initial atmospheric state is weak, and the internal variability associated with transient weather systems tends to be large compared with the nuanced influence of anomalies in external forcing. Current research and operational activities focus on exploring and exploiting potential links between external anomalies and seasonal-mean climate patterns. Here I examine reanalysed meteorological data sets for the unusual winter 2013/2014, with drought and freezing conditions juxtaposed over North America and severe wet and stormy weather over parts of Europe, to study the role of weather systems and their transient upper-tropospheric flow patterns. I find that the amplitude, recurrence and location of these transient patterns account directly for the corresponding anomalous seasonal-mean patterns. They occurred episodically and sequentially, were linked dynamically, and exhibited some circumpolar connectivity. I conclude that the upper-tropospheric components of transient weather systems are significant for understanding and predicting seasonal weather patterns, whereas the role of external factors is more subtle.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

The dynamics of sediment size and transient erosional signals in heterogeneous lithologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, N. J.; Gasparini, N. M.; Crosby, B. T.; Wehrs, K.; Willenbring, J. K.

2017-12-01

Sediment supply and transport dynamics convey, transform, and destroy climatic and tectonic signals in channels and depositional landforms. The South Fork Eel River (SFER) in the northern California Coast Ranges, USA exhibits characteristics suggestive of transient landscape adjustment: strath terraces, knickpoints, and headwater terrain eroding more slowly than downstream areas. A tectonically-induced uplift wave is commonly invoked as the driver of transience in this region. The wave is attributed to the northward migration of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). Nested basin-mean erosion rates calculated from 10Be detrital quartz sand increase down the mainstem of the SFER, roughly coinciding with the direction of MTJ migration. This erosion trend is attributed to the proportion of adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions upstream of the locations where the nested 10Be samples were collected. Adjusted and unadjusted landscape portions are separated by a broad knickzone that contains 28% of relief along the mainstem. Knickzone propagation and considerable stream incision is suggested by projection of the upper SFER above the knickzone through the highest flight of strath terraces. Field observations and outcomes of numerical simulations using the Landlab modeling framework are incompatible with uplift modeled as a wave. Alternative uplift and variable sediment flux scenarios more reliably predict the pattern of terraces, knickpoints, and accelerated erosion. In the natural landscape, landforms and erosion rates follow the patterns expected for transient erosion along the mainstem, although a local base level lowering signal is not resolvable in many tributaries. Topographic relief, presence of knickpoints, and rock properties differ in the SFER tributaries. The tributaries draining mélange are over-steepened by boulders detached from hillslopes by earthflows. Here, we propose a framework in which rock properties and sediment size are a key control upon preservation of a base level change signal in low order streams. This result implies that transient erosion signals inferred using topography can be transformed or destroyed in certain lithologies, complicating efforts to infer climatic and tectonic history from topography.

Which key properties controls the preferential transport in the vadose zone under transient hydrological conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groh, J.; Vanderborght, J.; Puetz, T.; Gerke, H. H.; Rupp, H.; Wollschlaeger, U.; Stumpp, C.; Priesack, E.; Vereecken, H.

2015-12-01

Understanding water flow and solute transport in the unsaturated zone is of great importance for an appropriate land use management strategy. The quantification and prediction of water and solute fluxes through the vadose zone can help to improve management practices in order to limit potential risk on our fresh water resources. Water related solute transport and residence time is strongly affected by preferential flow paths in the soil. Water flow in soils depends on soil properties and site factors (climate or experiment conditions, land use) and are therefore important factors to understand preferential solute transport in the unsaturated zone. However our understanding and knowledge of which on-site properties or conditions define and enhance preferential flow and transport is still poor and mostly limited onto laboratory experimental conditions (small column length and steady state boundary conditions). Within the TERENO SOILCan lysimeter network, which was designed to study the effects of climate change on soil functions, a bromide tracer was applied on 62 lysimeter at eight different test sites between Dec. 2013 and Jan. 2014. The TERENO SOILCan infrastructure offers the unique possibility to study the occurrence of preferential flow and transport of various soil types under different natural transient hydrological conditions and land use (crop, bare and grassland) at eight TERENO SOILCan observatories. Working with lysimeter replicates at each observatory allows defining the spatial variability of preferential transport and flow. Additionally lysimeters in the network were transferred within and between observatories in order to subject them to different rainfall and temperature regimes and enable us to relate the soil type susceptibility of preferential flow and transport not only to site specific physical and land use properties, but also to different transient boundary conditions. Comparison and statistical analysis between preferential flow indicators 5% arrival time and potential key soil properties, site factors and boundary conditions will be presented in order to identify key properties which control the preferential transport in the vadose zone under transient hydrological conditions.

An Adjoint Force-restore Model for Glacier Terminus Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, D.; Leslie, L.; Karoly, D.

2006-12-01

A linear inverse formula comprises the basis for an individual treatment of 7 central Asian (25-55°N; 70-95°E) glaciers. The linear forward model is based on first order glacier dynamics, and requires the knowledge of reference states of forcing and glacier perturbation magnitude. In this study, the adjoint based 4D-var method was applied to optimally determine the reference states and make it possible to start the integration at an arbitrarily chosen time, and thus suitable to use the availability of the coupled general circulation model (CGCM) predictions of future temperature scenarios. Two sensitive yet uncertain glacier parameters and reference states at year 1900 are inferred from observed glacier length records distributed irregularly over the 20th century and the regional mean annual temperature anomaly (against 1961-1990 reference) time series. We rotated the temperature forcing for the Hadley Centre- Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (HadCRUT2), the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) observations, and the ensemble mean of multiple CGCM runs and compared the retrieval results. Because of the high resemblance between the three data sources after 1960, it was decided practicable to use the observed temperature as forcing in retrieving the model parameters and initial states and then run an extended period with forcing from ensemble mean CGCM temperature of the next century. The length fluctuation is estimated for the transient climate period with 9 CGCM simulations under SRES A2 (a strong emission scenario from the Special report on Emissions Scenarios). For the 60-year period 2000- 2060, all glaciers experienced salient shrinkage, especially those with gentle slopes. Although nearly one-third the year 2000 length will be reduced for some small glaciers, the very existence of the glaciers studied here is not threatened by year 2060. The differences in individual glacier responses are very large. No straightforward relationship is found between glacier size and fractional change of its length.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America: Diagnosis of feedbacks between groundwater and land energy fluxes at continental scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Reed; Condon, Laura

2016-04-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Model results suggest that partitioning of plant transpiration to bare soil evaporation is a function of water table depth and later groundwater flow. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Using Four Downscaling Techniques to Characterize Uncertainty in Updating Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, L. M.; Samaras, C.; McGinnis, S. A.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are a common input to urban drainage design, and are used to represent extreme rainfall in a region. As rainfall patterns shift into a non-stationary regime as a result of climate change, these curves will need to be updated with future projections of extreme precipitation. Many regions have begun to update these curves to reflect the trends from downscaled climate models; however, few studies have compared the methods for doing so, as well as the uncertainty that results from the selection of the native grid scale and temporal resolution of the climate model. This study examines the variability in updated IDF curves for Pittsburgh using four different methods for adjusting gridded regional climate model (RCM) outputs into station scale precipitation extremes: (1) a simple change factor applied to observed return levels, (2) a naïve adjustment of stationary and non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, (3) a transfer function of the GEV parameters from the annual maximum series, and (4) kernel density distribution mapping bias correction of the RCM time series. Return level estimates (rainfall intensities) and confidence intervals from these methods for the 1-hour to 48-hour duration are tested for sensitivity to the underlying spatial and temporal resolution of the climate ensemble from the NA-CORDEX project, as well as, the future time period for updating. The first goal is to determine if uncertainty is highest for: (i) the downscaling method, (ii) the climate model resolution, (iii) the climate model simulation, (iv) the GEV parameters, or (v) the future time period examined. Initial results of the 6-hour, 10-year return level adjusted with the simple change factor method using four climate model simulations of two different spatial resolutions show that uncertainty is highest in the estimation of the GEV parameters. The second goal is to determine if complex downscaling methods and high-resolution climate models are necessary for updating, or if simpler methods and lower resolution climate models will suffice. The final results can be used to inform the most appropriate method and climate model resolutions to use for updating IDF curves for urban drainage design.

Modeling erosion under future climates with the WEPP model

Treesearch

Timothy Bayley; William Elliot; Mark A. Nearing; D. Phillp Guertin; Thomas Johnson; David Goodrich; Dennis Flanagan

2010-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT) was developed to be an easy-to-use, web-based erosion model that allows users to adjust climate inputs for user-specified climate scenarios. WEPPCAT allows the user to modify monthly mean climate parameters, including maximum and minimum temperatures, number of wet days, precipitation, and...

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

An Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Amplitude Estimation of Saturated Optical Transient Signals.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kagie, Matthew J.; Lanterman, Aaron D.

2017-12-01

This paper addresses parameter estimation for an optical transient signal when the received data has been right-censored. We develop an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the amplitude of a Poisson intensity with a known shape in the presence of additive background counts, where the measurements are subject to saturation effects. We compare the results of our algorithm with those of an EM algorithm that is unaware of the censoring.

Electrical and Optical Studies of Deep Levels in Nominally Undoped Thallium Bromide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Holland M.; Haegel, Nancy M.; Phillips, David J.; Cirignano, Leonard; Ciampi, Guido; Kim, Hadong; Chrzan, Daryl C.; Haller, Eugene E.

2014-02-01

Photo-induced conductivity transient spectroscopy (PICTS) and cathodoluminescence (CL) measurements were performed on nominally undoped detector grade samples of TlBr. In PICTS measurements, nine traps were detected in the temperature range 80-250 K using four-gate analysis. Five of the traps are tentatively identified as electron traps, and four as hole traps. CL measurements yielded two broad peaks common to all samples and most likely associated with defects. Correlations between the optically and electrically detected deep levels are considered. Above 250 K, the photoconductivity transients measured in the PICTS experiments exhibited anomalous transient behavior, indicated by non-monotonic slope variations as a function of time. The origin of the transients is under further investigation, but their presence precludes the accurate determination of trap parameters in TlBr above 250 K with traditional PICTS analysis. Their discovery was made possible by the use of a PICTS system that records whole photoconductivity transients, as opposed to reduced and processed signals.

Transient electro-thermal characterization of Si-Ge heterojunction bipolar transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Amit Kumar; Weiß, Mario; Fregonese, Sébastien; Malbert, Nathalie; Zimmer, Thomas

2012-08-01

In this paper, a comprehensive evaluation of the transient self-heating in microwave heterojunction bipolar transistors (HBTs) have been carried out through simulations and measurements. Three dimensional thermal TCAD simulations have been performed to investigate precisely the influence of backend metallization on transient thermal behavior of a submicron SiGe:C BiCMOS technology with fT and fmax of 230 GHz and 290 GHz, respectively. Transient variation of Collector current caused by self-heating is obtained through pulse measurements. For thermal characterization, different electro-thermal networks have been employed at the temperature node of HiCuM compact model. Thermal parameters have been extracted by means of compact model simulation using a scalable transistor library. It has been shown that, the conventional R-C thermal network is not sufficient to accurately model the transient thermal spreading behavior and therefore a recursive network needs to be used. Recursive network is verified with device simulations as well as measurements and found to be in excellent agreement.

Tuning maps for setpoint changes and load disturbance upsets in a three capacity process under multivariable control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Litt, Jonathan S.; Smith, Ira C.

1991-01-01

Tuning maps are an aid in the controller tuning process because they provide a convenient way for the plant operator to determine the consequences of adjusting different controller parameters. In this application the maps provide a graphical representation of the effect of varying the gains in the state feedback matrix on startup and load disturbance transients for a three capacity process. Nominally, the three tank system, represented in diagonal form, has a Proportional-Integral control on each loop. Cross coupling is then introduced between the loops by using non-zero off-diagonal proportional parameters. Changes in transient behavior due to setpoint and load changes are examined by varying the gains of the cross coupling terms.

Total Dose Effects on Single Event Transients in Digital CMOS and Linear Bipolar Circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buchner, S.; McMorrow, D.; Sibley, M.; Eaton, P.; Mavis, D.; Dusseau, L.; Roche, N. J-H.; Bernard, M.

2009-01-01

This presentation discusses the effects of ionizing radiation on single event transients (SETs) in circuits. The exposure of integrated circuits to ionizing radiation changes electrical parameters. The total ionizing dose effect is observed in both complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) and bipolar circuits. In bipolar circuits, transistors exhibit grain degradation, while in CMOS circuits, transistors exhibit threshold voltage shifts. Changes in electrical parameters can cause changes in single event upset(SEU)/SET rates. Depending on the effect, the rates may increase or decrease. Therefore, measures taken for SEU/SET mitigation might work at the beginning of a mission but not at the end following TID exposure. The effect of TID on SET rates should be considered if SETs cannot be tolerated.

Adjoint-Based Climate Model Tuning: Application to the Planet Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Guokun; Köhl, Armin; Matei, Ion; Stammer, Detlef

2018-01-01

The adjoint method is used to calibrate the medium complexity climate model "Planet Simulator" through parameter estimation. Identical twin experiments demonstrate that this method can retrieve default values of the control parameters when using a long assimilation window of the order of 2 months. Chaos synchronization through nudging, required to overcome limits in the temporal assimilation window in the adjoint method, is employed successfully to reach this assimilation window length. When assimilating ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the observations of air temperature and the radiative fluxes are the most important data for adjusting the control parameters. The global mean net longwave fluxes at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere are significantly improved by tuning two model parameters controlling the absorption of clouds and water vapor. The global mean net shortwave radiation at the surface is improved by optimizing three model parameters controlling cloud optical properties. The optimized parameters improve the free model (without nudging terms) simulation in a way similar to that in the assimilation experiments. Results suggest a promising way for tuning uncertain parameters in nonlinear coupled climate models.

Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

2015-01-01

Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

Climate change and forest fires.

PubMed

Flannigan, M D; Stocks, B J; Wotton, B M

2000-11-15

This paper addresses the impacts of climate change on forest fires and describes how this, in turn, will impact on the forests of the United States. In addition to reviewing existing studies on climate change and forest fires we have used two transient general circulation models (GCMs), namely the Hadley Centre and the Canadian GCMs, to estimate fire season severity in the middle of the next century. Ratios of 2 x CO2 seasonal severity rating (SSR) over present day SSR were calculated for the means and maximums for North America. The results suggest that the SSR will increase by 10-50% over most of North America; although, there are regions of little change or where the SSR may decrease by the middle of the next century. Increased SSRs should translate into increased forest fire activity. Thus, forest fires could be viewed as an agent of change for US forests as the fire regime will respond rapidly to climate warming. This change in the fire regime has the potential to overshadow the direct effects of climate change on species distribution and migration.

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Lin, Wei; Vecchia, Aldo V.

2014-01-01

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Importance of unsaturated zone flow for simulating recharge in a humid climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Prudic, David E.; Walker, J.F.; Anderson, M.P.

2008-01-01

Transient recharge to the water table is often not well understood or quantified. Two approaches for simulating transient recharge in a ground water flow model were investigated using the Trout Lake watershed in north-central Wisconsin: (1) a traditional approach of adding recharge directly to the water table and (2) routing the same volume of water through an unsaturated zone column to the water table. Areas with thin (less than 1 m) unsaturated zones showed little difference in timing of recharge between the two approaches; when water was routed through the unsaturated zone, however, less recharge was delivered to the water table and more discharge occurred to the surface because recharge direction and magnitude changed when the water table rose to the land surface. Areas with a thick (15 to 26 m) unsaturated zone were characterized by multimonth lags between infiltration and recharge, and, in some cases, wetting fronts from precipitation events during the fall overtook and mixed with infiltration from the previous spring snowmelt. Thus, in thicker unsaturated zones, the volume of water infiltrated was properly simulated using the traditional approach, but the timing was different from simulations that included unsaturated zone flow. Routing of rejected recharge and ground water discharge at land surface to surface water features also provided a better simulation of the observed flow regime in a stream at the basin outlet. These results demonstrate that consideration of flow through the unsaturated zone may be important when simulating transient ground water flow in humid climates with shallow water tables.

Modelling the Geographical Range of a Species with Variable Life-History

PubMed Central

Macfadyen, Sarina; Kriticos, Darren J.

2012-01-01

We show how a climatic niche model can be used to describe the potential geographic distribution of a pest species with variable life-history, and illustrate how to estimate biogeographic pest threats that vary across space. The models were used to explore factors that affect pest risk (irrigation and presences of host plant). A combination of current distribution records and published experimental data were used to construct separate models for the asexual and sexual lineages of Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) (Hemiptera: Aphididae). The two models were combined with knowledge of host plant presence to classify the global pest risk posed by R. padi. Whilst R. padi has a relatively limited area in which sexual lineages can persist year round, a much larger area is suitable for transient sexual and asexual lineages to exist. The greatest risk of establishment of persistent sexual and asexual populations is in areas with warm temperate climates. At the global scale the models show very little difference in risk patterns between natural rainfall and irrigation scenarios, but in Australia, the amount of land suitable for persistent asexual and transient sexual populations decreases (by 20%) if drought stress is no longer alleviated by irrigation. This approach proved useful for modelling the potential distribution of a species that has a variable life-history. We were able to use the model outputs to examine factors such as irrigation practices and host plant presence that altered the nature (transient or permanent) and extent of pest risk. The composite niche maps indicate pest risk in terms that are useful to both biosecurity agencies and pest managers. PMID:22808133

Simulation of regional ground-water flow in the Upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

This report describes a numerical model that simulates regional ground-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon. Ground water and surface water are intimately connected in the upper Deschutes Basin and most of the flow of the Deschutes River is supplied by ground water. Because of this connection, ground-water pumping and reduction of artificial recharge by lining leaking irrigation canals can reduce the amount of ground water discharging to streams and, consequently, streamflow. The model described in this report is intended to help water-management agencies and the public evaluate how the regional ground-water system and streamflow will respond to ground-water pumping, canal lining, drought, and other stresses. Ground-water flow is simulated in the model by the finite-difference method using MODFLOW and MODFLOWP. The finite-difference grid consists of 8 layers, 127 rows, and 87 columns. All major streams and most principal tributaries in the upper Deschutes Basin are included. Ground-water recharge from precipitation was estimated using a daily water-balance approach. Artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals and on-farm losses was estimated from diversion and delivery records, seepage studies, and crop data. Ground-water pumpage for irrigation and public water supplies, and evapotranspiration are also included in the model. The model was calibrated to mean annual (1993-95) steady-state conditions using parameter-estimation techniques employing nonlinear regression. Fourteen hydraulic-conductivity parameters and two vertical conductance parameters were determined using nonlinear regression. Final parameter values are all within expected ranges. The general shape and slope of the simulated water-table surface and overall hydraulic-head distribution match the geometry determined from field measurements. The fitted standard deviation for hydraulic head is about 76 feet. The general magnitude and distribution of ground-water discharge to streams is also well simulated throughout the model. Ground-water discharge to streams in the area of the confluence of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers is closely matched. The model was also calibrated to transient conditions from 1978 to 1997 using traditional trial-and-error methods. Climatic cycles during this period provided an excellent regional hydrologic signal for calibration. Climate-driven water-level fluctuations are simulated with reasonable accuracy over most of the model area. The timing and magnitude of simulated water-level fluctuations caused by annual pulses of recharge from precipitation match those observed reasonably well, given the limitations of the time discretization in the model. Water-level fluctuations caused by annual canal leakage are simulated very well over most of the area where such fluctuations occur. The transient model also simulates the volumetric distribution and temporal variations in ground-water discharge reasonably well. The match between simulated and measured volume of and variations in ground-water discharge is, however, somewhat dependent on geographic scale. The rates of and variations in ground-water discharge are matched best at regional scales. Example simulations were made to demonstrate the utility of the model for evaluating the effects of ground-water pumping or canal lining. Pumping simulations show that pumped water comes largely from aquifer storage when pumping begins, but as the water table stabilizes, the pumping increasingly diminishes the discharge to streams and, hence, streamflow. The time it takes for pumping to affect streamflow varies spatially depending, in general, on the location of pumping relative to the discharge areas. Canal-lining simulations show similar effects.

Measurement of carrier transport and recombination parameter in heavily doped silicon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swanson, Richard M.

1986-01-01

The minority carrier transport and recombination parameters in heavily doped bulk silicon were measured. Both Si:P and Si:B with bulk dopings from 10 to the 17th and 10 to the 20th power/cu cm were studied. It is shown that three parameters characterize transport in bulk heavily doped Si: the minority carrier lifetime tau, the minority carrier mobility mu, and the equilibrium minority carrier density of n sub 0 and p sub 0 (in p-type and n-type Si respectively.) However, dc current-voltage measurements can never measure all three of these parameters, and some ac or time-transient experiment is required to obtain the values of these parameters as a function of dopant density. Using both dc electrical measurements on bipolar transitors with heavily doped base regions and transients optical measurements on heavily doped bulk and epitaxially grown samples, lifetime, mobility, and bandgap narrowing were measured as a function of both p and n type dopant densities. Best fits of minority carrier mobility, bandgap narrowing and lifetime as a function of doping density (in the heavily doped range) were constructed to allow accurate modeling of minority carrier transport in heavily doped Si.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

PubMed Central

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-01-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-07-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M

2016-07-27

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

Chilled in Translation: Adapting to Bacterial Climate Change.

PubMed

Gottesman, Susan

2018-04-19

Cold-shocked bacteria transiently shut down protein translation, but the mechanisms whereby they adaptively restore translation were incompletely understood. Zhang et al. (2018) demonstrate a global increase in mRNA structure after cold shock and that, as structured RNA decreases, translation returns, dependent upon ribonuclease RNase R and cold shock protein CspA and its homologs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Lithium Battery Transient Response as a Diagnostic Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denisov, E.; Nigmatullin, R.; Evdokimov, Y.; Timergalina, G.

2018-05-01

Lithium batteries are currently used as the main energy storage for electronic devices. Progress in the field of portable electronic devices is significantly determined by the improvement of their weight/dimensional characteristics and specific capacity. In addition to the high reliability required of lithium batteries, in some critical applications proper diagnostics are required. Corresponding techniques allow prediction and prevention of operation interruption and avoidance of expensive battery replacement, and also provide additional benefits. Many effective diagnostic methods have been suggested; however, most of them require expensive experimental equipment, as well as interruption or strong perturbation of the operating mode. In the framework of this investigation, a simple diagnostic method based on analysis of transient processes is proposed. The transient response is considered as a reaction to an applied load variation that typically corresponds to normal operating conditions for most real applications. The transient response contains the same information as the impedance characteristic for the system operating in linear mode. Taking into account the large number of publications describing the impedance response associated with diagnostic methods, it can be assumed that the transient response contains a sufficient amount of information for creation of effective diagnostic systems. The proposed experimental installation is based on a controlled load, providing current variation, measuring equipment, and data processing electronics. It is proposed to use the second exponent parameters U 2 and β to estimate the state of charge for secondary lithium batteries. The proposed method improves the accuracy and reliability of a set of quantitative parameters associated with electrochemical energy sources.

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Cousins, Ian T

2014-09-01

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of hinge-moment parameters on elevator stick forces in rapid maneuvers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Robert T; Greenberg, Harry

1944-01-01

The importance of the stick force per unit normal acceleration as a criterion of longitudinal stability and the critical dependence of this gradient on elevator hinge-moment parameters have been shown in previous reports. The present report continues the investigation with special reference to transient effects for maneuvers of short duration.

Frequency method for determining the parameters of the electromagnetic brakes and slip-type couplings with solid magnetic circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guseynov, F. G.; Abbasova, E. M.

1977-01-01

The equivalent representation of brakes and coupling by lumped circuits is investigated. Analytical equations are derived for relating the indices of the transients to the parameters of the equivalent circuits for arbitrary rotor speed. A computer algorithm is given for the calculations.

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

Increasing ENSO-Driven Drought and Wildfire Risks in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Stevenson, S.

2015-12-01

ENSO-related teleconnections occurring in the transient climate states of the 20th and 21st centuries are examined using the NCAR CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE). A focus is given to quantifying the changing nature of related variability in a warming climate, the statistical robustness of which is enhanced by the numerous members of the LE (presently ~40). It is found that while the dynamical components of ENSO's teleconnections weaken considerably in a warming world, associated variability over land is in many cases sustained by changes in the background state, such as for rainfall due to the background rise in specific humidity. In some fields, particularly those associated with associated with thermal stress (e.g. drought and wildfire), ENSO-related variance increases dramatically. This, combined with the fact that ENSO variance itself increases in a warming climate in the LE, contributes to dramatic projected increases in ENSO-driven drought and wildfire risks in a warming world.

Asian pollution climatically modulates mid-latitude cyclones following hierarchical modelling and observational analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Renyi; Saravanan, R.

2014-01-01

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m-2 at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m-2 at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

Analysis of transient state in HTS tapes under ripple DC load current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepien, M.; Grzesik, B.

2014-05-01

The paper concerns the analysis of transient state (quench transition) in HTS tapes loaded with the current having DC component together with a ripple component. Two shapes of the ripple were taken into account: sinusoidal and triangular. Very often HTS tape connected to a power electronic current supply (i.e. superconducting coil for SMES) that delivers DC current with ripples and it needs to be examined under such conditions. Additionally, measurements of electrical (and thermal) parameters under such ripple excitation is useful to tape characterization in broad range of load currents. The results presented in the paper were obtained using test bench which contains programmable DC supply and National Instruments data acquisition system. Voltage drops and load currents were measured vs. time. Analysis of measured parameters as a function of the current was used to tape description with quench dynamics taken into account. Results of measurements were also used to comparison with the results of numerical modelling based on FEM. Presented provisional results show possibility to use results of measurements in transient state to prepare inverse models of superconductors and their detailed numerical modelling.

Model-based elastography: a survey of approaches to the inverse elasticity problem

PubMed Central

Doyley, M M

2012-01-01

Elastography is emerging as an imaging modality that can distinguish normal versus diseased tissues via their biomechanical properties. This article reviews current approaches to elastography in three areas — quasi-static, harmonic, and transient — and describes inversion schemes for each elastographic imaging approach. Approaches include: first-order approximation methods; direct and iterative inversion schemes for linear elastic; isotropic materials; and advanced reconstruction methods for recovering parameters that characterize complex mechanical behavior. The paper’s objective is to document efforts to develop elastography within the framework of solving an inverse problem, so that elastography may provide reliable estimates of shear modulus and other mechanical parameters. We discuss issues that must be addressed if model-based elastography is to become the prevailing approach to quasi-static, harmonic, and transient elastography: (1) developing practical techniques to transform the ill-posed problem with a well-posed one; (2) devising better forward models to capture the transient behavior of soft tissue; and (3) developing better test procedures to evaluate the performance of modulus elastograms. PMID:22222839

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Qian, Y.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. While the latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic important-sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e., the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Uncertainty Quantification and Parameter Tuning: A Case Study of Convective Parameterization Scheme in the WRF Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Y.; Yang, B.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2012-04-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. The latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic important-sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e., the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Some issues in uncertainty quantification and parameter tuning: a case study of convective parameterization scheme in the WRF regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; Qian, Y.; Lin, G.; Leung, R.; Zhang, Y.

2012-03-01

The current tuning process of parameters in global climate models is often performed subjectively or treated as an optimization procedure to minimize model biases based on observations. While the latter approach may provide more plausible values for a set of tunable parameters to approximate the observed climate, the system could be forced to an unrealistic physical state or improper balance of budgets through compensating errors over different regions of the globe. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to provide a more flexible framework to investigate a number of issues related uncertainty quantification (UQ) and parameter tuning. The WRF model was constrained by reanalysis of data over the Southern Great Plains (SGP), where abundant observational data from various sources was available for calibration of the input parameters and validation of the model results. Focusing on five key input parameters in the new Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization scheme used in WRF as an example, the purpose of this study was to explore the utility of high-resolution observations for improving simulations of regional patterns and evaluate the transferability of UQ and parameter tuning across physical processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes, which have important implications to UQ and parameter tuning in global and regional models. A stochastic importance sampling algorithm, Multiple Very Fast Simulated Annealing (MVFSA) was employed to efficiently sample the input parameters in the KF scheme based on a skill score so that the algorithm progressively moved toward regions of the parameter space that minimize model errors. The results based on the WRF simulations with 25-km grid spacing over the SGP showed that the precipitation bias in the model could be significantly reduced when five optimal parameters identified by the MVFSA algorithm were used. The model performance was found to be sensitive to downdraft- and entrainment-related parameters and consumption time of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). Simulated convective precipitation decreased as the ratio of downdraft to updraft flux increased. Larger CAPE consumption time resulted in less convective but more stratiform precipitation. The simulation using optimal parameters obtained by constraining only precipitation generated positive impact on the other output variables, such as temperature and wind. By using the optimal parameters obtained at 25-km simulation, both the magnitude and spatial pattern of simulated precipitation were improved at 12-km spatial resolution. The optimal parameters identified from the SGP region also improved the simulation of precipitation when the model domain was moved to another region with a different climate regime (i.e. the North America monsoon region). These results suggest that benefits of optimal parameters determined through vigorous mathematical procedures such as the MVFSA process are transferable across processes, spatial scales, and climatic regimes to some extent. This motivates future studies to further assess the strategies for UQ and parameter optimization at both global and regional scales.

Arctic climate response to geoengineering with stratospheric sulfate aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Battisti, D. S.; Bitz, C. M.

2010-12-01

Recent warming and record summer sea-ice area minimums have spurred expressions of concern for arctic ecosystems, permafrost, and polar bear populations, among other things. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections to deliberately cancel the anthropogenic temperature rise has been put forth as a possible solution to restoring Arctic (and global) climate to modern conditions. However, climate is particularly sensitive in the northern high latitudes, responding easily to radiative forcing changes. To that end, we explore the extent to which tropical injections of stratospheric sulfate aerosol can accomplish regional cancellation in the Arctic. We use the Community Climate System Model version 3 global climate model to execute simulations with combinations of doubled CO2 and imposed stratospheric sulfate burdens to investigate the effects on high latitude climate. We further explore the sensitivity of the polar climate to ocean dynamics by running a suite of simulations with and without ocean dynamics, transiently and to equilibrium respectively. We find that, although annual, global mean temperature cancellation is accomplished, there is over-cooling on land in Arctic summer, but residual warming in Arctic winter, which is largely due to atmospheric circulation changes. Furthermore, the spatial extent of these features and their concurrent impacts on sea-ice properties are modified by the inclusion of ocean dynamical feedbacks.

Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.

PubMed

Delpla, I; Jung, A-V; Baures, E; Clement, M; Thomas, O

2009-11-01

Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.

Capture-recapture survival models taking account of transients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pradel, R.; Hines, J.E.; Lebreton, J.D.; Nichols, J.D.

1997-01-01

The presence of transient animals, common enough in natural populations, invalidates the estimation of survival by traditional capture- recapture (CR) models designed for the study of residents only. Also, the study of transit is interesting in itself. We thus develop here a class of CR models to describe the presence of transients. In order to assess the merits of this approach we examme the bias of the traditional survival estimators in the presence of transients in relation to the power of different tests for detecting transients. We also compare the relative efficiency of an ad hoc approach to dealing with transients that leaves out the first observation of each animal. We then study a real example using lazuli bunting (Passerina amoena) and, in conclusion, discuss the design of an experiment aiming at the estimation of transience. In practice, the presence of transients is easily detected whenever the risk of bias is high. The ad hoc approach, which yields unbiased estimates for residents only, is satisfactory in a time-dependent context but poorly efficient when parameters are constant. The example shows that intermediate situations between strict 'residence' and strict 'transience' may exist in certain studies. Yet, most of the time, if the study design takes into account the expected length of stay of a transient, it should be possible to efficiently separate the two categories of animals.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of a multilayer, finite-difference model of the Southeastern Coastal Plain regional aquifer system; Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pernik, Meribeth

1987-01-01

The sensitivity of a multilayer finite-difference regional flow model was tested by changing the calibrated values for five parameters in the steady-state model and one in the transient-state model. The parameters that changed under the steady-state condition were those that had been routinely adjusted during the calibration process as part of the effort to match pre-development potentiometric surfaces, and elements of the water budget. The tested steady-state parameters include: recharge, riverbed conductance, transmissivity, confining unit leakance, and boundary location. In the transient-state model, the storage coefficient was adjusted. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the calibrated values of these parameters was evaluated with respect to the simulated response of net base flow to the rivers, and the mean value of the absolute head residual. To provide a standard measurement of sensitivity from one parameter to another, the standard deviation of the absolute head residual was calculated. The steady-state model was shown to be most sensitive to changes in rates of recharge. When the recharge rate was held constant, the model was more sensitive to variations in transmissivity. Near the rivers, the riverbed conductance becomes the dominant parameter in controlling the heads. Changes in confining unit leakance had little effect on simulated base flow, but greatly affected head residuals. The model was relatively insensitive to changes in the location of no-flow boundaries and to moderate changes in the altitude of constant head boundaries. The storage coefficient was adjusted under transient conditions to illustrate the model 's sensitivity to changes in storativity. The model is less sensitive to an increase in storage coefficient than it is to a decrease in storage coefficient. As the storage coefficient decreased, the aquifer drawdown increases, the base flow decreased. The opposite response occurred when the storage coefficient was increased. (Author 's abstract)

3-D transient hydraulic tomography in unconfined aquifers with fast drainage response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardiff, M.; Barrash, W.

2011-12-01

We investigate, through numerical experiments, the viability of three-dimensional transient hydraulic tomography (3DTHT) for identifying the spatial distribution of groundwater flow parameters (primarily, hydraulic conductivity K) in permeable, unconfined aquifers. To invert the large amount of transient data collected from 3DTHT surveys, we utilize an iterative geostatistical inversion strategy in which outer iterations progressively increase the number of data points fitted and inner iterations solve the quasi-linear geostatistical formulas of Kitanidis. In order to base our numerical experiments around realistic scenarios, we utilize pumping rates, geometries, and test lengths similar to those attainable during 3DTHT field campaigns performed at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site (BHRS). We also utilize hydrologic parameters that are similar to those observed at the BHRS and in other unconsolidated, unconfined fluvial aquifers. In addition to estimating K, we test the ability of 3DTHT to estimate both average storage values (specific storage Ss and specific yield Sy) as well as spatial variability in storage coefficients. The effects of model conceptualization errors during unconfined 3DTHT are investigated including: (1) assuming constant storage coefficients during inversion and (2) assuming stationary geostatistical parameter variability. Overall, our findings indicate that estimation of K is slightly degraded if storage parameters must be jointly estimated, but that this effect is quite small compared with the degradation of estimates due to violation of "structural" geostatistical assumptions. Practically, we find for our scenarios that assuming constant storage values during inversion does not appear to have a significant effect on K estimates or uncertainty bounds.

Transient thermal stresses in a reinforced hollow disk or cylinder containing a radial crack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, R.; Erdogan, F.

1983-01-01

The transient thermal stress problem in a hollow cylinder or a disk containing a radial crack is considered. It is assumed that the cylinder is reinforced on its inner boundary by a membrane which has thermoelastic constants different than those of the base material. The transient temperature, thermal stresses and the crack tip stress intensity factors are calculated in a cylinder which is subjected to a sudden change of temperature on the inside surface. The results are obtained for various dimensionless parameters and material constants. The special cases of the crack terminating at the cylinder-membrane interface and of the broken membrane are separately considered and some examples are given.

Transient thermal stresses in a reinforced hollow disk or cylinder containing a radial crack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, R.; Erdogan, F.

1984-01-01

The transient thermal stress problem in a hollow cylinder or a disk containing a radial crack is considered. It is assumed that the cylinder is reinforced on its inner boundary by a membrane which has thermoelastic constants different than those of the base material. The transient temperature, thermal stresses and the crack tip stress intensity factors are calculated in a cylinder which is subjected to a sudden change of temperature on the inside surface. The results are obtained for various dimensionless parameters and material constants. The special cases of the crack terminating at the cylinder-membrane interface and of the broken membrane are separately considered and some examples are given.

Predicting the Reliability of Ceramics Under Transient Loads and Temperatures With CARES/Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

2003-01-01

A methodology is shown for predicting the time-dependent reliability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The methodology takes into account the changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e., changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). This capability has been added to the NASA CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code. The code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

Relationship of liver stiffness and controlled attenuation parameter measured by transient elastography with diabetes mellitus in patients with chronic liver disease.

PubMed

Ahn, Jem Ma; Paik, Yong-Han; Kim, So Hyun; Lee, Jun Hee; Cho, Ju Yeon; Sohn, Won; Gwak, Geum-Youn; Choi, Moon Seok; Lee, Joon Hyeok; Koh, Kwang Cheol; Paik, Seung Woon; Yoo, Byung Chul

2014-08-01

High prevalence of diabetes mellitus in patients with liver cirrhosis has been reported in many studies. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship of hepatic fibrosis and steatosis assessed by transient elastography with diabetes in patients with chronic liver disease. The study population consisted of 979 chronic liver disease patients. Liver fibrosis and steatosis were assessed by liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) on transient elastography. Diabetes was diagnosed in 165 (16.9%) of 979 patients. The prevalence of diabetes had significant difference among the etiologies of chronic liver disease. Higher degrees of liver fibrosis and steatosis, assessed by LSM and CAP score, showed higher prevalence of diabetes (F0/1 [14%], F2/3 [18%], F4 [31%], P<0.001; S0/1 [15%], S2 [17%], S3 [26%], P=0.021). Multivariate analysis showed that the independent predictive risk factors for diabetes were hypertension (OR, 1.98; P=0.001), LSM F4 (OR, 1.86; P=0.010), male gender (OR, 1.60; P=0.027), and age>50 yr (OR, 1.52; P=0.046). The degree of hepatic fibrosis but not steatosis assessed by transient elastography has significant relationship with the prevalence of diabetes in patients with chronic liver disease.

High-speed Particle Image Velocimetry Near Surfaces

PubMed Central

Lu, Louise; Sick, Volker

2013-01-01

Multi-dimensional and transient flows play a key role in many areas of science, engineering, and health sciences but are often not well understood. The complex nature of these flows may be studied using particle image velocimetry (PIV), a laser-based imaging technique for optically accessible flows. Though many forms of PIV exist that extend the technique beyond the original planar two-component velocity measurement capabilities, the basic PIV system consists of a light source (laser), a camera, tracer particles, and analysis algorithms. The imaging and recording parameters, the light source, and the algorithms are adjusted to optimize the recording for the flow of interest and obtain valid velocity data. Common PIV investigations measure two-component velocities in a plane at a few frames per second. However, recent developments in instrumentation have facilitated high-frame rate (> 1 kHz) measurements capable of resolving transient flows with high temporal resolution. Therefore, high-frame rate measurements have enabled investigations on the evolution of the structure and dynamics of highly transient flows. These investigations play a critical role in understanding the fundamental physics of complex flows. A detailed description for performing high-resolution, high-speed planar PIV to study a transient flow near the surface of a flat plate is presented here. Details for adjusting the parameter constraints such as image and recording properties, the laser sheet properties, and processing algorithms to adapt PIV for any flow of interest are included. PMID:23851899

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

2011-01-01

The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

Tuning a climate model using nudging to reanalysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheedela, S. K.; Mapes, B. E.

2014-12-01

Tuning a atmospheric general circulation model involves a daunting task of adjusting non-observable parameters to adjust the mean climate. These parameters arise from necessity to describe unresolved flow through parametrizations. Tuning a climate model is often done with certain set of priorities, such as global mean temperature, net top of the atmosphere radiation. These priorities are hard enough to reach let alone reducing systematic biases in the models. The goal of currently study is to explore alternate ways to tune a climate model to reduce some systematic biases that can be used in synergy with existing efforts. Nudging a climate model to a known state is a poor man's inverse of tuning process described above. Our approach involves nudging the atmospheric model to state of art reanalysis fields thereby providing a balanced state with respect to the global mean temperature and winds. The tendencies derived from nudging are negative of errors from physical parametrizations as the errors from dynamical core would be small. Patterns of nudging are compared to the patterns of different physical parametrizations to decipher the cause for certain biases in relation to tuning parameters. This approach might also help in understanding certain compensating errors that arise from tuning process. ECHAM6 is a comprehensive general model, also used in recent Coupled Model Intercomparision Project(CMIP5). The approach used to tune it and effect of certain parameters that effect its mean climate are reported clearly, hence it serves as a benchmark for our approach. Our planned experiments include nudging ECHAM6 atmospheric model to European Center Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and reanalysis from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and decipher choice of certain parameters that lead to systematic biases in its simulations. Of particular interest are reducing long standing biases related to simulation of Asian summer monsoon.

Stable amplitude chimera states in a network of locally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Premalatha, K.; Chandrasekar, V. K.; Senthilvelan, M.; Lakshmanan, M.

2018-03-01

We investigate the occurrence of collective dynamical states such as transient amplitude chimera, stable amplitude chimera, and imperfect breathing chimera states in a locally coupled network of Stuart-Landau oscillators. In an imperfect breathing chimera state, the synchronized group of oscillators exhibits oscillations with large amplitudes, while the desynchronized group of oscillators oscillates with small amplitudes, and this behavior of coexistence of synchronized and desynchronized oscillations fluctuates with time. Then, we analyze the stability of the amplitude chimera states under various circumstances, including variations in system parameters and coupling strength, and perturbations in the initial states of the oscillators. For an increase in the value of the system parameter, namely, the nonisochronicity parameter, the transient chimera state becomes a stable chimera state for a sufficiently large value of coupling strength. In addition, we also analyze the stability of these states by perturbing the initial states of the oscillators. We find that while a small perturbation allows one to perturb a large number of oscillators resulting in a stable amplitude chimera state, a large perturbation allows one to perturb a small number of oscillators to get a stable amplitude chimera state. We also find the stability of the transient and stable amplitude chimera states and traveling wave states for an appropriate number of oscillators using Floquet theory. In addition, we also find the stability of the incoherent oscillation death states.

Stable amplitude chimera states in a network of locally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators.

PubMed

Premalatha, K; Chandrasekar, V K; Senthilvelan, M; Lakshmanan, M

2018-03-01

We investigate the occurrence of collective dynamical states such as transient amplitude chimera, stable amplitude chimera, and imperfect breathing chimera states in a locally coupled network of Stuart-Landau oscillators. In an imperfect breathing chimera state, the synchronized group of oscillators exhibits oscillations with large amplitudes, while the desynchronized group of oscillators oscillates with small amplitudes, and this behavior of coexistence of synchronized and desynchronized oscillations fluctuates with time. Then, we analyze the stability of the amplitude chimera states under various circumstances, including variations in system parameters and coupling strength, and perturbations in the initial states of the oscillators. For an increase in the value of the system parameter, namely, the nonisochronicity parameter, the transient chimera state becomes a stable chimera state for a sufficiently large value of coupling strength. In addition, we also analyze the stability of these states by perturbing the initial states of the oscillators. We find that while a small perturbation allows one to perturb a large number of oscillators resulting in a stable amplitude chimera state, a large perturbation allows one to perturb a small number of oscillators to get a stable amplitude chimera state. We also find the stability of the transient and stable amplitude chimera states and traveling wave states for an appropriate number of oscillators using Floquet theory. In addition, we also find the stability of the incoherent oscillation death states.

Climate-driven vital rates do not always mean climate-driven population.

PubMed

Tavecchia, Giacomo; Tenan, Simone; Pradel, Roger; Igual, José-Manuel; Genovart, Meritxell; Oro, Daniel

2016-12-01

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate-driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual-based data on a trans-equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large-scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ i , estimated using local climate-driven parameters with ρ i , a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate-dependent parameters, ρ i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate-driven projections. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Construction of Gridded Daily Weather Data and its Use in Central-European Agroclimatic Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Trnka, M.; Skalak, P.

2013-12-01

The regional-scale simulations of weather-sensitive processes (e.g. hydrology, agriculture and forestry) for the present and/or future climate often require high resolution meteorological inputs in terms of the time series of selected surface weather characteristics (typically temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind) for a set of stations or on a regular grid. As even the latest Global and Regional Climate Models (GCMs and RCMs) do not provide realistic representation of statistical structure of the surface weather, the model outputs must be postprocessed (downscaled) to achieve the desired statistical structure of the weather data before being used as an input to the follow-up simulation models. One of the downscaling approaches, which is employed also here, is based on a weather generator (WG), which is calibrated using the observed weather series, interpolated, and then modified according to the GCM- or RCM-based climate change scenarios. The present contribution, in which the parametric daily weather generator M&Rfi is linked to the high-resolution RCM output (ALADIN-Climate/CZ model) and GCM-based climate change scenarios, consists of two parts: The first part focuses on a methodology. Firstly, the gridded WG representing the baseline climate is created by merging information from observations and high resolution RCM outputs. In this procedure, WG is calibrated with RCM-simulated multi-variate weather series, and the grid specific WG parameters are then de-biased by spatially interpolated correction factors based on comparison of WG parameters calibrated with RCM-simulated weather series vs. spatially scarcer observations. To represent the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the 'WG-friendly' climate change scenarios. These scenarios are defined in terms of changes in WG parameters and include - apart from changes in the means - changes in WG parameters, which represent the additional characteristics of the weather series (e.g. probability of wet day occurrence and lag-1 autocorrelation of daily mean temperature). The WG-friendly scenarios for the present experiment are based on comparison of future vs baseline surface weather series simulated by GCMs from a CMIP3 database. The second part will present results of climate change impact study based on an above methodology applied to Central Europe. The changes in selected climatic (focusing on the extreme precipitation and temperature characteristics) and agroclimatic (including number of days during vegetation season with heat and drought stresses) characteristics will be analysed. In discussing the results, the emphasis will be put on 'added value' of various aspects of above methodology (e.g. inclusion of changes in 'advanced' WG parameters into the climate change scenarios). Acknowledgements: The present experiment is made within the frame of projects WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR), ALARO-Climate (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation), and VALUE (COST ES 1102 action).

Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco in China: spatial distribution and association with climatic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Chao; Wu, Wei; Wu, Shu-Cheng; Liu, Hong-Bin; Peng, Qing

2014-02-01

Aroma types of flue-cured tobacco (FCT) are classified into light, medium, and heavy in China. However, the spatial distribution of FCT aroma types and the relationships among aroma types, chemical parameters, and climatic variables were still unknown at national scale. In the current study, multi-year averaged chemical parameters (total sugars, reducing sugars, nicotine, total nitrogen, chloride, and K2O) of FCT samples with grade of C3F and climatic variables (mean, minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity, and sunshine hours) during the growth periods were collected from main planting areas across China. Significant relationships were found between chemical parameters and climatic variables ( p < 0.05). A spatial distribution map of FCT aroma types were produced using support vector machine algorithms and chemical parameters. Significant differences in chemical parameters and climatic variables were observed among the three aroma types based on one-way analysis of variance ( p < 0.05). Areas with light aroma type had significantly lower values of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures than regions with medium and heavy aroma types ( p < 0.05). Areas with heavy aroma type had significantly lower values of rainfall and relative humidity and higher values of sunshine hours than regions with light and medium aroma types ( p < 0.05). The output produced by classification and regression trees showed that sunshine hours, rainfall, and maximum temperature were the most important factors affecting FCT aroma types at national scale.

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model.

PubMed

Jiang, Yueyang; Zhuang, Qianlai; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen; Sokolov, Andrei; Kicklighter, David; Melillo, Jerry

2012-03-01

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45(o)N and polewards) for the period 1900-2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.

Revisiting Melton: Analyzing the correlation structure of geomorphological and climatological parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carothers, R. A.; Sangireddy, H.; Passalacqua, P.

2013-12-01

In his expansive 1957 study of over 80 basins in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah, Mark Melton measured key morphometric, soil, land cover, and climatic parameters [Melton, 1957]. He identified correlations between morphological parameters and climatic regimes in an attempt to characterize the geomorphology of the basin as a function of climate and vegetation. Using modern techniques such as high resolution digital terrain models in combination with high spatial resolution weather station records, vector soil maps, seamless raster geological data, and land cover vector maps, we revisit Melton's 1957 dataset with the following hypotheses: (1) Patterns of channelization carry strong, codependent signatures in the form of statistical correlations of rainfall variability, soil type, and vegetation patterns. (2) Channelization patterns reflect the erosion processes on sub-catchment scale and the subsequent processes of vegetation recovery and gullying. In order to characterize various topographic and climatic parameters, we obtain elevation and land cover data from the USGS National Elevation dataset, climate data from the Western Regional Climate Center and PRISM climate group database, and soil type from the USDA STATSGO soil database. We generate a correlative high resolution database on vegetation, soil cover, lithology, and climatology for the basins identified by Melton in his 1957 study. Using the GeoNet framework developed by Passalacqua et al. [2010], we extract various morphological parameters such as slope, drainage density, and stream frequency. We also calculate metrics for patterns of channelization such as number of channelized pixels in a basin and channel head density. In order to understand the correlation structure between climate and morphological variables, we compute the Pearson's correlation coefficient similar to Melton's analysis and also explore other statistical procedures to characterize the feedbacks between these variables. By identifying the differences in Melton's and our results, we address the influence of climate over the degree of channel dissection in the landscape. References: Melton, M. A. (1957). An analysis of the relations among elements of climate, surface properties, and geomorphology (No. CU-TR-11). COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK Passalacqua, P., Do Trung, T., Foufoula-Georgiou, E., Sapiro, G., & Dietrich, W. E. (2010). A geometric framework for channel network extraction from lidar: Nonlinear diffusion and geodesic paths. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface (2003-2012), 115(F1). PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, created 4 Feb 2004 Soil Survey Staff, Natural Resources Conservation Service, United States Department of Agriculture. U.S. General Soil Map (STATSGO2). Available online at http://soildatamart.nrcs.usda.gov USGS National Map Viewer, United States Geological Survey. Web. 10 June 2013. http://viewer.nationalmap.gov/viewer/ Western U.S. Historical Climate Summaries, Western Regional Climate Group, 2013. Web. 10 June 2013. http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html

Combining wood anatomy and stable isotope variations in a 600-year multi-parameter climate reconstruction from Corsican black pine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim

2014-10-01

We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.

Biochemical evidence for minimal vegetation change in peatlands of the West Siberian Lowland during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Philben, Michael; Kaiser, Karl; Benner, Ronald

2014-05-01

Peatland vegetation is controlled primarily by the depth of the water table, making peat paleovegetation a useful climate archive. We applied a biochemical approach to quantitatively estimate the plant sources of peat carbon based on (1) neutral sugar compositions of Sphagnum, vascular plants, and lichens and (2) lignin phenol compositions of vascular plants. We used these biochemical indices to characterize vegetation change over the last 2000 years in four peat cores from the West Siberian Lowland (Russia) to investigate climate change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age. The vegetation was dominated by Sphagnum in all four cores, but was punctuated by several rapid but transient transitions to vascular plant dominance in the two cores from the southern West Siberian Lowland (<60°N latitude). Lichen contributions were evident at the end of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and during the Little Ice Age in the two cores from northern West Siberian Lowland (>60°N), possibly indicating permafrost development. However, there was no evidence for sustained vegetation change in response to either climatic event in cores from southern West Siberian Lowland. This suggests that these climatic events were relatively mild in the southern West Siberian Lowland, although the sensitivity of bog plant communities to climate change remains poorly understood.

Failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, D. D.; Klein, R.; Tannahill, J.; Ivanova, D.; Brandon, S.; Domyancic, D.; Zhang, Y.

2013-01-01

Simulations using IPCC-class climate models are subject to fail or crash for a variety of reasons. Quantitative analysis of the failures can yield useful insights to better understand and improve the models. During the course of uncertainty quantification (UQ) ensemble simulations to assess the effects of ocean model parameter uncertainties on climate simulations, we experienced a series of simulation crashes within the Parallel Ocean Program (POP2) component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). About 8.5% of our CCSM4 simulations failed for numerical reasons at combinations of POP2 parameter values. We apply support vector machine (SVM) classification from machine learning to quantify and predict the probability of failure as a function of the values of 18 POP2 parameters. A committee of SVM classifiers readily predicts model failures in an independent validation ensemble, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve metric (AUC > 0.96). The causes of the simulation failures are determined through a global sensitivity analysis. Combinations of 8 parameters related to ocean mixing and viscosity from three different POP2 parameterizations are the major sources of the failures. This information can be used to improve POP2 and CCSM4 by incorporating correlations across the relevant parameters. Our method can also be used to quantify, predict, and understand simulation crashes in other complex geoscientific models.

A theory of post-stall transients in axial compression systems. II - Application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greitzer, E. M.; Moore, F. K.

1985-01-01

Using the theory developed in Part I, calculations have been carried out to show the evolution of the mass flow, pressure rise, and rotating-stall cell amplitude during compression system post-stall transients. In particular, it is shown that the unsteady growth or decay of the stall cell can have a significant effect on the instantaneous compressor pumping characteristic and hence on the overall system behavior. A limited parametric study is carried out to illustrate the impact of different system features on transient behavior. It is shown, for example, that the ultimate mode of system response, surge or stable rotating stall, depends not only on the B parameter, but also on the compressor length-to-radius ratio. Small values of this latter quantity tend to favor the occurrence of surge, as do large values of B. Based on the analytical and numerical results, several specific topics are suggested for future research on post-stall transients.

On the numerical solution of the dynamically loaded hydrodynamic lubrication of the point contact problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Sang G.; Brewe, David E.; Prahl, Joseph M.

1990-01-01

The transient analysis of hydrodynamic lubrication of a point-contact is presented. A body-fitted coordinate system is introduced to transform the physical domain to a rectangular computational domain, enabling the use of the Newton-Raphson method for determining pressures and locating the cavitation boundary, where the Reynolds boundary condition is specified. In order to obtain the transient solution, an explicit Euler method is used to effect a time march. The transient dynamic load is a sinusoidal function of time with frequency, fractional loading, and mean load as parameters. Results include the variation of the minimum film thickness and phase-lag with time as functions of excitation frequency. The results are compared with the analytic solution to the transient step bearing problem with the same dynamic loading function. The similarities of the results suggest an approximate model of the point contact minimum film thickness solution.

Particle bombardment - mediated gene transfer and GFP transient expression in Seteria viridis.

PubMed

Mookkan, Muruganantham

2018-04-03

Setaria viridis is one of the most important model grasses in studying monocot plant biology. Transient gene expression study is a very important tool in plant biotechnology, functional genomics, and CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing technology via particle bombardment. In this study, a particle bombardment-mediated protocol was developed to introduce DNA into Setaria viridis in vitro leaf explants. In addition, physical and biological parameters, such as helium pressure, distance from stopping screen to the target tissues, DNA concentration, and number of bombardments, were tested and optimized. Optimum concentration of transient GFP expression was achieved using 1.5 ug plasmid DNA with 0.6 mm gold particles and 6 cm bombardment distance, using 1,100 psi. Doubling the bombardment instances provides the maximum number of foci of transient GFP expression. This simple protocol will be helpful for genomics studies in the S. viridis monocot model.

Constraining the CMB optical depth through the dispersion measure of cosmological radio transients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fialkov, A.; Loeb, A., E-mail: anastasia.fialkov@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: aloeb@cfa.harvard.edu

2016-05-01

The dispersion measure of extragalactic radio transients can be used to measure the column density of free electrons in the intergalactic medium. The same electrons also scatter the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons, affecting precision measurements of cosmological parameters. We explore the connection between the dispersion measure of radio transients existing during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) and the total optical depth for the CMB showing that the existence of such transients would provide a new sensitive probe of the CMB optical depth. As an example, we consider the population of FRBs. Assuming they exist during the EoR, we showmore » that: (i) such sources can probe the reionization history by measuring the optical depth to sub-percent accuracy, and (ii) they can be detected with high significance by an instrument such as the Square Kilometer Array.« less

The Dynamic Radio Sky: Future Directions at cm/m-Wavelengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bower, Geoffrey C.; Cordes, J.; Croft, S.; Lazio, J.; Lorimer, D.; McLaughlin, M.

2009-01-01

The time domain of the radio wavelength sky has been only sparsely explored. Nevertheless, recent discoveries from limited surveys and serendipitous discoveries indicate that there is much to be found on timescales from nanoseconds to years and at wavelengths from meters to millimeters. These observations have revealed unexpected phenonmena such as rotating radio transients and coherent pulses from brown dwarfs. Additionally, archival studies have revealed an unknown class of radio transients without radio, optical, or high-energy hosts. The current generation of new meter- and centimeter-wave radio telescopes such as the MWA, LWA, PAPER, and ATA will exploit wide fields of view and flexible digital signal processing to systematically explore radio transient parameter space, as well as lay the scientific and technical foundation for the SKA. Known unknowns that will be the target of future transient surveys include orphan gamma-ray burst afterglows, radio supernovae, tidally-disrupted stars, flare stars, and magnetars.

Three-Dimensional Printed Poly(vinyl alcohol) Substrate with Controlled On-Demand Degradation for Transient Electronics.

PubMed

Yoon, Jinsu; Han, Jungmin; Choi, Bongsik; Lee, Yongwoo; Kim, Yeamin; Park, Jinhee; Lim, Meehyun; Kang, Min-Ho; Kim, Dae Hwan; Kim, Dong Myong; Kim, Sungho; Choi, Sung-Jin

2018-05-25

Electronics that degrade after stable operation for a desired operating time, called transient electronics, are of great interest in many fields, including biomedical implants, secure memory devices, and environmental sensors. Thus, the development of transient materials is critical for the advancement of transient electronics and their applications. However, previous reports have mostly relied on achieving transience in aqueous solutions, where the transience time is largely predetermined based on the materials initially selected at the beginning of the fabrication. Therefore, accurate control of the transience time is difficult, thereby limiting their application. In this work, we demonstrate transient electronics based on a water-soluble poly(vinyl alcohol) (PVA) substrate on which carbon nanotube (CNT)-based field-effect transistors were fabricated. We regulated the structural parameters of the PVA substrate using a three-dimensional (3D) printer to accurately control and program the transience time of the PVA substrate in water. The 3D printing technology can produce complex objects directly, thus enabling the efficient fabrication of a transient substrate with a prescribed and controlled transience time. In addition, the 3D printer was used to develop a facile method for the selective and partial destruction of electronics.

A framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

2014-05-01

In order to better understand the uncertainties in the climate of the next decades, an increasingly large number of increasingly diverse climate projections is being produced by the climate research community through coordinated initiatives (e.g., CMIP5, CORDEX), but also through more specific experiments at both the global scale (perturbed parameter ensembles) and the regional-to-local scale (empirical statistical downscaling ensembles). When significant efforts are put into making such projections available online, very few works focus on how to make such an enormous amount of information actually usable by the impact and adaptation community. Climate services should therefore include guidelines and recommendations for identifying subsets of climate projections that would have (1) a size manageable by downstream modelling approaches and (2) the relevant properties for informing adaptation strategies. This works proposes a generic framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections that would meet both the objectives and the constraints of a specific impact / adaptation study in a typical top-down approach. This decision framework builds on two main preliminary tasks that lead to critical choices in the selection strategy: (1) understanding the requirements of the specific impact / adaptation study, and (2) characterizing the (downscaled) climate projections dataset available. An impact / adaptation study has two types of requirements. First, the study may aim at various outcomes for a given climate-related feature: the best estimate of the future, the range of possible futures, a set of representative futures, or a statistically interpretable ensemble of futures. Second, impact models may come with specific constraints on climate input variables, like spatio-temporal and between-variables coherence. Additionally, when concurrent impact models are used, the most restrictive constraints have to be considered in order to be able to assess the uncertainty associated from this modelling step. Besides, the climate projection dataset available for a given study has several characteristics that will heavily condition the type of conclusions that can be reached. Indeed, the dataset at hand may or not sample different types of uncertainty (socio-economic, structural, parametric, along with internal variability). Moreover, these types are present at different steps in the well-known cascade of uncertainty, from the emission / concentration scenarios and the global climate to the regional-to-local climate. Critical choices for the selection are therefore conditioned on all features above. The type of selection (picking out, culling, or statistical sampling) is closely related to the study objectives and the uncertainty types present in the dataset. Moreover, grounds for picking out or culling projections may stem from global, regional or feature-specific present-day performance, representativeness, or covered range. An example use of this framework is a hierarchical selection for 3 classes of impact models among 3000 transient climate projections from different runs of 4 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods, and made available for an integrated water resource adaptation study in the Durance catchment (southern French Alps). This work is part of the GICC R2D2-20501 project (Risk, water Resources and sustainable Development of the Durance catchment in 2050) and the EU FP7 COMPLEX2 project (Knowledge Based Climate Mitigation Systems for a Low Carbon Economy).

Analysis of Fractional Flow for Transient Two-Phase Flow in Fractal Porous Medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Ting; Duan, Yonggang; Fang, Quantang; Dai, Xiaolu; Wu, Jinsui

2016-03-01

Prediction of fractional flow in fractal porous medium is important for reservoir engineering and chemical engineering as well as hydrology. A physical conceptual fractional flow model of transient two-phase flow is developed in fractal porous medium based on the fractal characteristics of pore-size distribution and on the approximation that porous medium consist of a bundle of tortuous capillaries. The analytical expression for fractional flow for wetting phase is presented, and the proposed expression is the function of structural parameters (such as tortuosity fractal dimension, pore fractal dimension, maximum and minimum diameters of capillaries) and fluid properties (such as contact angle, viscosity and interfacial tension) in fractal porous medium. The sensitive parameters that influence fractional flow and its derivative are formulated, and their impacts on fractional flow are discussed.

Modeling of the Multiparameter Inverse Task of Transient Thermography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plotnikov, Y. A.

1998-01-01

Transient thermography employs preheated surface temperature variations caused by delaminations, cracks, voids, corroded regions, etc. Often, it is enough to detect these changes to declare a defect in a workpiece. It is also desirable to obtain additional information about the defect from the thermal response. The planar size, depth, and thermal resistance of the detected defects are the parameters of interest. In this paper a digital image processing technique is applied to simulated thermal responses in order to obtain the geometry of the inclusion-type defects in a flat panel. A three-dimensional finite difference model in Cartesian coordinates is used for the numerical simulations. Typical physical properties of polymer graphite composites are assumed. Using different informative parameters of the thermal response for depth estimation is discussed.

Sensitivity analysis of conservative and reactive stream transient storage models applied to field data from multiple-reach experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gooseff, M.N.; Bencala, K.E.; Scott, D.T.; Runkel, R.L.; McKnight, Diane M.

2005-01-01

The transient storage model (TSM) has been widely used in studies of stream solute transport and fate, with an increasing emphasis on reactive solute transport. In this study we perform sensitivity analyses of a conservative TSM and two different reactive solute transport models (RSTM), one that includes first-order decay in the stream and the storage zone, and a second that considers sorption of a reactive solute on streambed sediments. Two previously analyzed data sets are examined with a focus on the reliability of these RSTMs in characterizing stream and storage zone solute reactions. Sensitivities of simulations to parameters within and among reaches, parameter coefficients of variation, and correlation coefficients are computed and analyzed. Our results indicate that (1) simulated values have the greatest sensitivity to parameters within the same reach, (2) simulated values are also sensitive to parameters in reaches immediately upstream and downstream (inter-reach sensitivity), (3) simulated values have decreasing sensitivity to parameters in reaches farther downstream, and (4) in-stream reactive solute data provide adequate data to resolve effective storage zone reaction parameters, given the model formulations. Simulations of reactive solutes are shown to be equally sensitive to transport parameters and effective reaction parameters of the model, evidence of the control of physical transport on reactive solute dynamics. Similar to conservative transport analysis, reactive solute simulations appear to be most sensitive to data collected during the rising and falling limb of the concentration breakthrough curve. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mammal faunal response to the Paleogene hyperthermals ETM2 and H2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chew, A. E.

2015-04-01

Scientists are increasingly turning to deep-time fossil records to decipher the long-term consequences of climate change in the race to preserve modern biotas from anthropogenically driven global warming. "Hyperthermals" are past intervals of geologically rapid global warming that provide the opportunity to study the effects of climate change on existing faunas over thousands of years. A series hyperthermals is known from the early Eocene (∼56-54 million years ago), including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) and two subsequent hyperthermals, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2) and H2. The later hyperthermals occurred following the onset of warming at the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), the hottest sustained period of the Cenozoic. The PETM has been comprehensively studied in marine and terrestrial settings, but the terrestrial biotic effects of ETM2 and H2 are unknown. Their geochemical signatures have been located in the northern part of the Bighorn Basin, WY, USA, and their levels can be extrapolated to an extraordinarily dense, well-studied terrestrial mammal fossil record in the south-central part of the basin. High-resolution, multi-parameter paleoecological analysis reveals significant peaks in species diversity and turnover and changes in abundance and relative body size at the levels of ETM2 and H2 in the south-central Bighorn Basin record. In contrast with the PETM, faunal change at the later hyperthermals is less extreme, does not include immigration and involves a proliferation of body sizes, although abundance shifts tend to favor smaller congeners. Faunal response at ETM2 and H2 is distinctive in its high proportion of species losses potentially related to heightened species vulnerability in response to the changes already underway at the beginning of the EECO. Faunal response at ETM2 and H2 is also distinctive in high proportions of beta richness, suggestive of increased geographic dispersal related to transient increases in habitat (floral) complexity and/or precipitation or seasonality of precipitation. These results suggest that rapid ecological changes, increased heterogeneity in species incidence, and heightened species vulnerability and loss may be expected across most of North America in the near future in response to anthropogenically-driven climate change.

Quantification of Transient Changes of Thermospheric Neutral Density

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-24

Pedersen conductivity at high latitudes. Based on Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellites...the model. The seasonal variations of the ratio have been investigated for both hemispheres, and an interhemispheric asymmetry has been identified...Satellite Program (DMSP) F- 15, F-16, F-17 and F-18 satellites and the Iridium satellite constellation is presented, using an inverse procedure for high

Thermophysical properties of cement based composites and their changes after artificial ageing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šín, Peter; Pavlendová, Gabriela; Lukovičová, Jozefa; Kopčok, Michal

2017-07-01

The usage of recycled plastic materials in concrete mix gained increased attention. The behaviour of such environmental friendly material is studied. In this paper an investigation of the thermophysical properties of cement based composites containing plastic waste particles with different percentage is presented. Measurements were carried out using pulse transient method before and after artificial ageing in climatic chamber BINDER MKF (E3).

Simulation of future groundwater recharge using a climate model ensemble and SAR-image based soil parameter distributions - A case study in an intensively-used Mediterranean catchment.

PubMed

Herrmann, Frank; Baghdadi, Nicolas; Blaschek, Michael; Deidda, Roberto; Duttmann, Rainer; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Sellami, Haykel; Vereecken, Harry; Wendland, Frank

2016-02-01

We used observed climate data, an ensemble of four GCM-RCM combinations (global and regional climate models) and the water balance model mGROWA to estimate present and future groundwater recharge for the intensively-used Thau lagoon catchment in southern France. In addition to a highly resolved soil map, soil moisture distributions obtained from SAR-images (Synthetic Aperture Radar) were used to derive the spatial distribution of soil parameters covering the full simulation domain. Doing so helped us to assess the impact of different soil parameter sources on the modelled groundwater recharge levels. Groundwater recharge was simulated in monthly time steps using the ensemble approach and analysed in its spatial and temporal variability. The soil parameters originating from both sources led to very similar groundwater recharge rates, proving that soil parameters derived from SAR images may replace traditionally used soil maps in regions where soil maps are sparse or missing. Additionally, we showed that the variance in different GCM-RCMs influences the projected magnitude of future groundwater recharge change significantly more than the variance in the soil parameter distributions derived from the two different sources. For the period between 1950 and 2100, climate change impacts based on the climate model ensemble indicated that overall groundwater recharge will possibly show a low to moderate decrease in the Thau catchment. However, as no clear trend resulted from the ensemble simulations, reliable recommendations for adapting the regional groundwater management to changed available groundwater volumes could not be derived. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of a 1.5 °C Global Temperature Rise on the Glaciers of High Mountain Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A.; Lutz, A. F.; Bierkens, M. F.; Immerzeel, W. W.

2017-12-01

Glaciers in High Mountain Asia (HMA) play a substantial role in regional water resources. In general, these glaciers have been retreating and losing mass over the last decades, a trend that is most likely to persist under future temperature rise. At the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, 195 nations signed the "Paris Agreement" and agreed on efforts to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. It is unknown, however, how much of Asia's ice mass will be lost under a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, or under more extreme temperature scenarios. To estimate this, we use a mass balance gradient glacier model including mass redistribution for all individual glaciers in HMA larger than 0.4 km2. The model was run transiently up to 2100 using climate change scenarios from the full CMIP5 climate model ensemble, and a Monte Carlo framework was implemented to account for parameter uncertainty. Results show that only a handful of the climate models project a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C, and that under such a scenario HMA warms stronger than the global mean (2.1±0.1 °C). By the end of the 21st century, the 1.5 °C scenario results in a 36±7% mass loss relative to the estimated present day ice mass in HMA of 4754±350 Gt. Mass losses projected by RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 model ensembles are considerably higher with 49±7%, 51±6% and 65±6%, respectively. Results also show large regional differences in mass loss, which are primarily caused by regional differences in debris cover, ice mass, observed mass balance, and glacier sensitivity to climate perturbations. We conclude that even under the ambitious 1.5 °C scenario over one third of HMA's glacier mass will be lost by the end of century, and that the difference with more likely scenarios is large. The 1.5 °C target is a task of a dimension that the world has never seen before, but it might prove to be very important for the fate of the glaciers and for water resources in the region.

Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

2017-12-01

There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 for which the probability to remain under 1.5 K is 48%. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-like futures overshoot with very high probability. This underscores that over the next century, the state of the environment will be strongly influenced by past, present and future economical policies.

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiqi; Shi, Zheng; Lu, Xingjie; ...

2016-09-16

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production,more » NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.« less

Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: Mathematical foundation and numeric examples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiqi; Shi, Zheng; Lu, Xingjie

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb roughly 30% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions since preindustrial era, but it is unclear whether this carbon (C) sink will endure into the future. Despite extensive modeling, experimental, and observational studies, what fundamentally determines transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage under climate change is still not very clear. Here we develop a new framework for understanding transient dynamics of terrestrial C storage through mathematical analysis and numerical experiments. Our analysis indicates that the ultimate force driving ecosystem C storage change is the C storage capacity, which is jointly determined by ecosystem C input (e.g., net primary production,more » NPP) and residence time. Since both C input and residence time vary with time, the C storage capacity is time-dependent and acts as a moving attractor that actual C storage chases. The rate of change in C storage is proportional to the C storage potential, the difference between the current storage and the storage capacity. The C storage capacity represents instantaneous responses of the land C cycle to external forcing, whereas the C storage potential represents the internal capability of the land C cycle to influence the C change trajectory in the next time step. The influence happens through redistribution of net C pool changes in a network of pools with different residence times. Furthermore, this and our other studies have demonstrated that one matrix equation can exactly replicate simulations of most land C cycle models (i.e., physical emulators). As a result, simulation outputs of those models can be placed into a three-dimensional (3D) parameter space to measure their differences. The latter can be decomposed into traceable components to track the origins of model uncertainty. Moreover, the emulators make data assimilation computationally feasible so that both C flux- and pool-related datasets can be used to better constrain model predictions of land C sequestration. We also propose that the C storage potential be the targeted variable for research, market trading, and government negotiation for C credits.« less

Antarctic glaciations under Pliocene climate conditions from numerical modeling and compilation of local field-based reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf

2014-05-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were likely sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values. Furthermore, the positions of the continents and their sea-land distributions had already reached their present configuration, sharing some similarities with today's patterns of ocean circulation and vegetation distributions. Although significant differences exist -such as a peak sea level that could have been 22 ± 10 m higher than it is today and sea surface temperatures particularly warmer at higher latitudes, mid-Pliocene has been identified as an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. Among the sources of uncertainty in the projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to warmer-than-today conditions seems to play a central role. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behavior during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information that could help improve future predictions. For this purpose, we have compiled a wide range of local field-based reconstructions of the ice-sheet margin from Pliocene sediments (with the inclusions of organic matters such as, for instance, diatoms or palynoflora, or ice rafted debris), geochemical records, volcanic ashes and rocks, and geomorphology, and designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the large-scale polythermal ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]). The model is run with a horizontal resolution of 40 × 40 km by the climatology obtained from the PlioMIP Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model experiments (Dolan et al., 2012 [3]). Parameters of the AIS model (e.g. ice calving, sub-ice shelf and surface ice melt, basal sliding, etc.) have initially been estimated using ice-sheet simulations driven by the present-day climate and ocean conditions and calibrated against available remote-sensed and in-situ observations. In our Pliocene experiments, we employ alternative parameterizations of sub-ice shelf and ice surface melting processes to test the likelihood of numerous controversial theories and reconstructions arguing for or against significant retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet from the coasts (locally up to 450 km) in the mid-Pliocene. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of the modeled West Antarctic/Antarctic Peninsula ice geometry to the above parameters and emphasize a crucial role of surface mass balance model parameters in modeling the Pliocene ice sheet configuration in agreement with existing reconstructions on a regional scale. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. Journal of Climate, 10(5), 901-918. [2] Sato, T., and Greve, R. (2012). Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates. Annals of Glaciology, 53(60), 221-228. [3] Dolan, A. M., Koenig, S. J., Hill, D. J., Haywood, A. M., and DeConto, R. M. (2012). Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP)-experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(4), 963-974.

Simulation of comprehensive chemistry and atmospheric methane lifetime in the LGM with EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey; Steil, Benedikt

2017-04-01

Past records of atmospheric methane (CH4) abundance/isotope composition may provide a substantial insight on C exchanges in the Earth System (ES). When simulated in the climate models, CH4 helps to identify climate parameters transitions via triggering of its different (natural) sources, with a proviso that its sinks are adequately represented in the model. The latter are still a matter of large uncertainty in the studies focussing on the interpretation of CH4 evolution throughout Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), judging the conferred span of tropospheric CH4 lifetime (λ) of 3-16 yr [1-4]. In this study, we attempt to: (i) deliver the most adequate estimate of the LGM atmospheric sink of CH4 in the EMAC AC-GCM [5] equipped with the comprehensive representation of atmospheric chemistry [6], (ii) reveal the ES and CH4 emission parameters that are most influential for λ and (iii) based on these findings, suggest a parameterisation for λ that may be consistently used in climate models. In pursuing (i) we have tuned the EMAC model for simulating LGM atmospheric chemistry state, including careful revisiting of the trace gases emissions from the biosphere, biomass burning/lightning source, etc. The latter affect the key simulated component bound with λ, viz. the abundance and distribution of the hydroxyl radicals (OH) which, upon reacting with CH4, constitute its main tropospheric sink. Our preliminary findings suggest that OH is buffered in the atmosphere in a similar fashion to preindustrial climate, which in line with the recent studies employing comprehensive chemistry mechanisms (e.g., [3]). The analysis in (ii) suggests that tropospheric λ values may be qualitatively described as a convolution of values typical for zonal domain with high and low photolytic recycling rates (i.e. tropics and extra-tropics), as in the latter a dependence of the zonal average λ value on the CH4 emission strength exists. We further use the extensive diagnostic in EMAC to infer the sensitivity of zonal OH to changes in various component of the ES, e.g. in stratospheric O3 input and dynamics. Finally, we discuss the potential set of parameters required for efficient λ and/or OH parameterisation implementation in models dealing with (transient) climate simulations. References 1. Fischer, H., et al.: Changing boreal methane sources and constant biomass burning during the last termination, Nature, 452, 864-867, doi: 10.1038/nature06825, 2008. 2. Kaplan, J. O., Folberth, G.,and Hauglustaine, D. A.: Role of methane and biogenic volatile organic compound sources in late glacial and Holocene fluctuations of atmospheric methane concentrations, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, n/a-n/a, doi: 10.1029/2005GB002590, 2006. 3. Murray, L. T., et al.: Factors controlling variability in the oxidative capacity of the troposphere since the Last Glacial Maximum, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589-3622, doi: 10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014. 4. Valdes, P. J., Beerling, D. J.,and Johnson, C. E.: The ice age methane budget, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, n/a-n/a, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021004, 2005. 5. Jöckel, P., et al.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi: 10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. 6. Lelieveld, J., et al.: Global tropospheric hydroxyl distribution, budget and reactivity, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12477-12493, doi: 10.5194/acp-16-12477-2016, 2016.

Predicting lodgepole pine site index from climatic parameters in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Shongming Huang; Yuqing Yang

2006-01-01

We sought to evaluate the impact of climatic variables on site productivity of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Engelm.) for the province of Alberta. Climatic data were obtained from the Alberta Climate Model, which is based on 30-year normals from the provincial weather station network. Mapping methods were based...

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring and Data

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News monthly data, time series, and maps for various climate parameters, such as precipitation, temperature Oscillations (ENSO) and other climate patterns such as the North Atlantic and Pacific Decadal Oscillations, and

Gradual onset and recovery of the Younger Dryas abrupt climate event in the tropics.

PubMed

Partin, J W; Quinn, T M; Shen, C-C; Okumura, Y; Cardenas, M B; Siringan, F P; Banner, J L; Lin, K; Hu, H-M; Taylor, F W

2015-09-02

Proxy records of temperature from the Atlantic clearly show that the Younger Dryas was an abrupt climate change event during the last deglaciation, but records of hydroclimate are underutilized in defining the event. Here we combine a new hydroclimate record from Palawan, Philippines, in the tropical Pacific, with previously published records to highlight a difference between hydroclimate and temperature responses to the Younger Dryas. Although the onset and termination are synchronous across the records, tropical hydroclimate changes are more gradual (>100 years) than the abrupt (10-100 years) temperature changes in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The abrupt recovery of Greenland temperatures likely reflects changes in regional sea ice extent. Proxy data and transient climate model simulations support the hypothesis that freshwater forced a reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, thereby causing the Younger Dryas. However, changes in ocean overturning may not produce the same effects globally as in Greenland.

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years.

PubMed

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

2016-06-22

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection.

Correlation and anti-correlation of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons during the last 21,000 years

PubMed Central

Wen, Xinyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Wang, Shaowu; Cheng, Jun; Zhu, Jiang

2016-01-01

Understanding the past significant changes of the East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is critical for improving the projections of future climate over East Asia. One key issue that has remained outstanding from the paleo-climatic records is whether the evolution of the EASM and EAWM are correlated. Here, using a set of long-term transient simulations of the climate evolution of the last 21,000 years, we show that the EASM and EAWM are positively correlated on the orbital timescale in response to the precessional forcing, but are anti-correlated on millennial timescales in response to North Atlantic melt water forcing. The relation between EASM and EAWM can differ dramatically for different timescales because of the different response mechanisms, highlighting the complex dynamics of the East Asian monsoon system and the challenges for future projection. PMID:27328616

Regular network model for the sea ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic.

PubMed

Müller-Stoffels, Marc; Wackerbauer, Renate

2011-03-01

The Arctic Ocean and sea ice form a feedback system that plays an important role in the global climate. The complexity of highly parameterized global circulation (climate) models makes it very difficult to assess feedback processes in climate without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics is understood. We introduce a two-dimensional energy-based regular network model to investigate feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The model includes the nonlinear aspect of the ice-water phase transition, a nonlinear diffusive energy transport within a heterogeneous ice-ocean lattice, and spatiotemporal atmospheric and oceanic forcing at the surfaces. First results for a horizontally homogeneous ice-ocean layer show bistability and related hysteresis between perennial ice and perennial open water for varying atmospheric heat influx. Seasonal ice cover exists as a transient phenomenon. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice.

Vulnerability of two European lakes in response to future climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danis, Pierre-Alain; von Grafenstein, Ulrich; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Planton, S.; Gerdeaux, D.; Moisselin, J.-M.

2004-11-01

Temperate deep freshwater lakes are important resources of drinking water and fishing, and regional key recreation areas. Their deep water often hosts highly specialised fauna surviving since glacial times. Theoretical and observational studies suggest a vulnerability of these hydro-ecosystems to reduced mixing and ventilation within the ongoing climatic change. Here we use a numerical thermal lake model, verified over the 20th century, to quantify the transient thermal behaviour of two European lakes in response to the observed 20th-century and predicted 21th-century climate changes. In contrast to Lac d'Annecy (France) which, after adaptation, maintains its modern mixing behaviour, Ammersee (Germany) is expected to undergo a dramatic and persistent lack of mixing starting from ~2020, when European air temperatures should be ~1°C warmer. The resulting lack of oxygenation will irreversibly destroy the deepwater fauna prevailing since 15 kyrs.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 20; The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

2001-01-01

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Transient receptor potential melastatin 8 gene polymorphism is associated with cold-induced airway hyperresponsiveness in bronchial asthma.

PubMed

Naumov, Denis E; Perelman, Juliy M; Kolosov, Victor P; Potapova, Tatyana A; Maksimov, Vladimir N; Zhou, Xiangdong

2015-11-01

Cold-induced airway hyperresponsiveness (CAH) is common in bronchial asthma (BA) patients and represents a problem for those living in cold climate. Transient receptor potential melastatin 8 (TRPM8) channel is the main cold temperature sensor in humans that could mediate cold response in asthmatics with CAH. No associations between TRPM8 gene polymorphisms and CAH have been reported. The present study involved 123 BA patients. CAH was assessed by 3-min isocapnic (5% CO2 ) cold air (-20°C) hyperventilation challenge. The c.750G > C (rs11562975), c.1256G > A (rs7593557), c.3048C > T (rs11563208) and c.3174C > G (rs11563071) polymorphisms of TRPM8 gene were genotyped by allele-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and PCR with subsequent restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. GC genotype and C allele carriers of the c.750G > C (rs11562975) polymorphism were more frequently observed to exhibit CAH. The estimated odds ratio for the GC genotype was 3.73 95%CI (1.48; 9.37), P = 0.005. Furthermore, GC heterozygotes had a prominent decrease in forced expiratory volume in 1 s after the challenge as compared to GG homozygotes (-12% (-16; -8.1) vs -6.45% (-11; -2.1), P < 0.001). GC carriers also had a marked reduction in other spirometric parameters. The GC variant of the TRPM8:c.750G > C (rs11562975) polymorphism is associated with CAH in patients with BA, which suggests a potential role of TRPM8 in CAH development. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Re-Assessing Leaching Requirements for the Salinity Control under New Irrigation Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Laosheng; Yang, Ting; Šimůnek, Jirka

2017-04-01

Irrigation is essential to sustain agricultural production, but it adds dissolved salts (or salinity) to croplands. Leaching is thus necessary to keep the average rootzone salinity below the plant threshold EC levels in order to sustain crop production. Current leaching requirement (LR) calculation is based on steady-state, one-dimensional (1D), and water balance approaches, which often overestimates the LRs under transient field conditions. While in recent years, surface and sprinkler irrigated fields have been largely converted to drip or micro-spray systems and deficit irrigation has become more popular, currently accepted LRs may not be appropriate for these irrigation systems. Under point or line irrigation sources (e.g., drips or drip-lines), water and salts move both downwards and laterally, which may lead to highly saline areas on the edges of the wetted area. Under such circumstances, processes such as precipitation/dissolution of mineral phases and/or cation exchange may significantly affect the leaching requirement. The overall objective of this research was to use computer simulation models (i.e., Hydrus-2D and UnsatChem) to evaluate LRs under transient conditions and new irrigation regimes. Simulations were carried out using parameters for soils, climate zones, and major crops and their corresponding fertilization practices typical for California to: (1) Assess the effects of salt precipitation/dissolution on the leaching requirement (LR); (2) Evaluate localized water movement on average rootzone salinity and the leaching requirement (LR); (3) Evaluate leaching requirements for soils under deficit irrigation; and (4) Assess the effects of rainfall on the leaching requirement. Information from this research could significantly impact water management practices in irrigated croplands.

Suppressing Transients In Digital Phase-Locked Loops

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. B.

1993-01-01

Loop of arbitrary order starts in steady-state lock. Method for initializing variables of digital phase-locked loop reduces or eliminates transients in phase and frequency typically occurring during acquisition of lock on signal or when changes made in values of loop-filter parameters called "loop constants". Enables direct acquisition by third-order loop without prior acquisition by second-order loop of greater bandwidth, and eliminates those perturbations in phase and frequency lock occurring when loop constants changed by arbitrarily large amounts.

Thresholds of Transient Cavitation Produced by Pulsed Ultrasound in a Controlled Nuclei Environment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Christy Katherine Smith

The possibility of hazardous bioeffects from medical ultrasound examinations and therapy, although not demonstrated in current epidemiologic data, is still of interest to the medical community. In particular, concern persists over the potential of damage at the cellular level due to transient cavitation produced by diagnostic and high intensity therapeutic ultrasound. Transient cavitation is a discrete phenomenon which relies on the existence of stabilized nuclei, or pockets of gas within a host fluid, for its genesis. A convenient descriptor for assessing the likelihood of transient cavitation is the threshold pressure, or the minimum acoustic pressure necessary to initiate bubble growth and subsequent collapse. Experimental measurements of cavitation thresholds are presented here which elucidate the importance of ultrasound host fluid and nuclei parameters in determining these thresholds. These results are interpreted in the context of an approximate theory, included as an appendix, describing the relationship between these parameters and cavitation threshold pressures. An automated experimental apparatus has been developed to determine thresholds for cavitation produced in a fluid by short tone bursts of ultrasound at 0.76, 0.99, and 2.30 MHz. A fluid jet was used to convect potential cavitation nuclei through the focal region of the insonifying transducer. Potential nuclei tested include 1mum polystyrene spheres, microbubbles in the 1-10 μm range that are stabilized with human serum albumin, and whole blood constituents. Cavitation was detected by a passive acoustical technique which is sensitive to sound scattered from cavitation bubbles. Measurements of the transient cavitation threshold in water, in a fluid of higher viscosity, and in diluted whole blood are presented. Results from these experiments which permit the control of nuclei and host fluid properties are compared to the approximate analytical theory for the prediction of the onset of cavitation.

Estimating changes to groundwater discharge temperature under altered climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manga, M.; Burns, E. R.; Zhu, Y.; Zhan, H.; Williams, C. F.; Ingebritsen, S.; Dunham, J.

2017-12-01

Changes in groundwater temperature resulting from climate-driven boundary conditions (recharge and land surface temperature) can be evaluated using new analytical solutions of the groundwater heat transport equation. These steady-state solutions account for land-surface boundary conditions, hydrology, and geothermal and viscous heating, and can be used to identify the key physical processes that control thermal responses of groundwater-fed ecosystems to climate change, in particular (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Also, existing transient solutions of conduction are compared with a new solution for advective transport of heat to estimate the timing of groundwater-discharge response to changes in recharge and land surface temperature. As an example, the new solutions are applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated Fall River Springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, high-elevation groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions, but as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes to the average annual land surface temperature will also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive timescale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the lower-elevation Fall River Springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

2014-12-01

Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

Variations in surface water-ground water interactions along a headwater mountain stream : comparisons between transient storage and water balance analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Adam S.; Payn, Robert A.; Gooseff, Michael N.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Bencala, Kenneth E.; Kelleher, Christa A.; Wondzell, Steven M.; Wagener, Thorsten

2013-01-01

The accumulation of discharge along a stream valley is frequently assumed to be the primary control on solute transport processes. Relationships of both increasing and decreasing transient storage, and decreased gross losses of stream water have been reported with increasing discharge; however, we have yet to validate these relationships with extensive field study. We conducted transient storage and mass recovery analyses of artificial tracer studies completed for 28 contiguous 100 m reaches along a stream valley, repeated under four base-flow conditions. We calculated net and gross gains and losses, temporal moments of tracer breakthrough curves, and best fit transient storage model parameters (with uncertainty estimates) for 106 individual tracer injections. Results supported predictions that gross loss of channel water would decrease with increased discharge. However, results showed no clear relationship between discharge and transient storage, and further analysis of solute tracer methods demonstrated that the lack of this relation may be explained by uncertainty and equifinality in the transient storage model framework. Furthermore, comparison of water balance and transient storage approaches reveals complications in clear interpretation of either method due to changes in advective transport time, which sets a the temporal boundary separating transient storage and channel water balance. We have little ability to parse this limitation of solute tracer methods from the physical processes we seek to study. We suggest the combined analysis of both transient storage and channel water balance more completely characterizes transport of solutes in stream networks than can be inferred from either method alone.

Circuit transients due to negative bias arcs-II. [on solar cell power systems in low earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Metz, R. N.

1986-01-01

Two new models of negative-bias arcing on a solar cell power system in Low Earth Orbit are presented. One is an extended, analytical model and the other is a non-linear, numerical model. The models are based on an earlier analytical model in which the interactions between solar cell interconnects and the space plasma as well as the parameters of the power circuit are approximated linearly. Transient voltages due to arcs struck at the negative thermal of the solar panel are calculated in the time domain. The new models treat, respectively, further linear effects within the solar panel load circuit and non-linear effects associated with the plasma interactions. Results of computer calculations with the models show common-mode voltage transients of the electrically floating solar panel struck by an arc comparable to the early model but load transients that differ substantially from the early model. In particular, load transients of the non-linear model can be more than twice as great as those of the early model and more than twenty times as great as the extended, linear model.

Transient Modeling of Hybrid Rocket Low Frequency Instabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karabeyoglu, M. Arif; DeZilwa, Shane; Cantwell, Brian; Zilliac, Greg

2003-01-01

A comprehensive dynamic model of a hybrid rocket has been developed in order to understand and predict the transient behavior including instabilities. A linearized version of the transient model predicted the low-frequency chamber pressure oscillations that are commonly observed in hybrids. The source of the instabilities is based on a complex coupling of thermal transients in the solid fuel, wall heat transfer blocking due to fuel regression rate and the transients in the boundary layer that forms on the fuel surface. The oscillation frequencies predicted by the linearized theory are in very good agreement with 43 motor test results obtained from the hybrid propulsion literature. The motor test results used in the comparison cover a very wide spectrum of parameters including: 1) four separate research and development programs, 2) three different oxidizers (LOX, GOX, N2O), 3) a wide range of motor dimensions (i.e. from 5 inch diameter to 72 inch diameter) and operating conditions and 4) several fuel formulations. A simple universal scaling formula for the frequency of the primary oscillation mode is suggested.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

Potential impacts of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Chen; Lai, Shiyu; Gao, Xueping; Xu, Liping

2015-10-01

To study the potential effects of climate change on water quality in a shallow reservoir in China, the field data analysis method is applied to data collected over a given monitoring period. Nine water quality parameters (water temperature, ammonia nitrogen, nitrate nitrogen, nitrite nitrogen, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen) and three climate indicators for 20 years (1992-2011) are considered. The annual trends exhibit significant trends with respect to certain water quality and climate parameters. Five parameters exhibit significant seasonality differences in the monthly means between the two decades (1992-2001 and 2002-2011) of the monitoring period. Non-parametric regression of the statistical analyses is performed to explore potential key climate drivers of water quality in the reservoir. The results indicate that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive impacts on water quality. However, an extremely cold spring and high wind speed are likely to affect the self-stabilising equilibrium states of the reservoir, which requires attention in the future. The results suggest that land use changes have important impact on nitrogen load. This study provides useful information regarding the potential effects of climate change on water quality in developing countries.

The ICARDA agro-climate tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A Visual Basic agro-climate application by climatologists at the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas and the U.S. Department of Agriculture is described here. The database from which the application derives climate information consists of weather generator parameters der...

Comparative Model Evaluation Studies of Biogenic Trace Gas Fluxes in Tropical Forests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C. S.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Simulation modeling can play a number of important roles in large-scale ecosystem studies, including synthesis of patterns and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling dynamics, scaling up to regional estimates, and formulation of testable hypotheses for process studies. Recent comparative studies have shown that ecosystem models of soil trace gas exchange with the atmosphere are evolving into several distinct simulation approaches. Different levels of detail exist among process models in the treatment of physical controls on ecosystem nutrient fluxes and organic substrate transformations leading to gas emissions. These differences are is in part from distinct objectives of scaling and extrapolation. Parameter requirements for initialization scalings, boundary conditions, and time-series driven therefore vary among ecosystem simulation models, such that the design of field experiments for integration with modeling should consider a consolidated series of measurements that will satisfy most of the various model requirements. For example, variables that provide information on soil moisture holding capacity, moisture retention characteristics, potential evapotranspiration and drainage rates, and rooting depth appear to be of the first order in model evaluation trials for tropical moist forest ecosystems. The amount and nutrient content of labile organic matter in the soil, based on accurate plant production estimates, are also key parameters that determine emission model response. Based on comparative model results, it is possible to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix along categories of key diagnostic parameters and temporal domains. Nevertheless, as large-scale studied are planned, it is notable that few existing models age designed to simulate transient states of ecosystem change, a feature which will be essential for assessment of anthropogenic disturbance on regional gas budgets, and effects of long-term climate variability on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Assessing the impact of model and climate uncertainty in malaria simulations for the Kenyan Highlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, A. M.; Thomson, M. C.

2017-12-01

Simulations of the impact of climate variations on a vector-bornedisease such as malaria are subject to a number of sources ofuncertainty. These include the model structure and parameter settingsin addition to errors in the climate data and the neglect of theirspatial heterogeneity, especially over complex terrain. We use aconstrained genetic algorithm to confront these two sources ofuncertainty for malaria transmission in the highlands of Kenya. Thetechnique calibrates the parameter settings of a process-based,mathematical model of malaria transmission to vary within theirassessed level of uncertainty and also allows the calibration of thedriving climate data. The simulations show that in highland settingsclose to the threshold for sustained transmission, the uncertainty inclimate is more important to address than the malaria modeluncertainty. Applications of the coupled climate-malaria modelling system are briefly presented.

Dynamics of mechanical feedback-type hydraulic servomotors under inertia loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gold, Harold; Otto, Edward W; Ransom, Victor L

1953-01-01

An analysis of the dynamics of mechanical feedback-type hydraulic servomotors under inertia loads is developed and experimental verification is presented. The analysis, which is developed in terms of two physical parameters, yields direct expressions for the following dynamic responses: (1) the transient response to a step input and the maximum cylinder pressure during the transient and (2) the variation of amplitude attenuation and phase shift with the frequency of a sinusoidally varying input. The validity of the analysis is demonstrated by means of recorded transient and frequency responses obtained on two servomotors. The calculated responses are in close agreement with the measured responses. The relations presented are readily applicable to the design as well as to the analysis of hydraulic servomotors.

Winnerless competition principle and prediction of the transient dynamics in a Lotka-Volterra model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afraimovich, Valentin; Tristan, Irma; Huerta, Ramon; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.

2008-12-01

Predicting the evolution of multispecies ecological systems is an intriguing problem. A sufficiently complex model with the necessary predicting power requires solutions that are structurally stable. Small variations of the system parameters should not qualitatively perturb its solutions. When one is interested in just asymptotic results of evolution (as time goes to infinity), then the problem has a straightforward mathematical image involving simple attractors (fixed points or limit cycles) of a dynamical system. However, for an accurate prediction of evolution, the analysis of transient solutions is critical. In this paper, in the framework of the traditional Lotka-Volterra model (generalized in some sense), we show that the transient solution representing multispecies sequential competition can be reproducible and predictable with high probability.

Winnerless competition principle and prediction of the transient dynamics in a Lotka-Volterra model.

PubMed

Afraimovich, Valentin; Tristan, Irma; Huerta, Ramon; Rabinovich, Mikhail I

2008-12-01

Predicting the evolution of multispecies ecological systems is an intriguing problem. A sufficiently complex model with the necessary predicting power requires solutions that are structurally stable. Small variations of the system parameters should not qualitatively perturb its solutions. When one is interested in just asymptotic results of evolution (as time goes to infinity), then the problem has a straightforward mathematical image involving simple attractors (fixed points or limit cycles) of a dynamical system. However, for an accurate prediction of evolution, the analysis of transient solutions is critical. In this paper, in the framework of the traditional Lotka-Volterra model (generalized in some sense), we show that the transient solution representing multispecies sequential competition can be reproducible and predictable with high probability.

UTSG-2; A theoretical model describing the transient behavior of a pressurized water reactor natural circulation U-tube steam generator

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hold, A.

An advanced nonlinear transient model for calculating steady-state and dynamic behaviors of characteristic parameters of a Kraftwerk Union-type vertical natural-circulation U-tube steam generator and its main steam system is presented. This model has been expanded due to the increasing need for safety-related accident research studies. It now takes into consideration the possibilities of dryout and superheating along the secondary side of the steam generator. The resulting theoretical model is the basis of the digital code UTSG-2, which can be used both by itself and in combination with other pressurized water reactor transient codes, such as ALMOD-3.4, AMOD-4, and ATHLET.

The effect of different spectral shape parameterizations of cloud droplet size distribution on first and second aerosol indirect effects in NACR CAM5 and evaluation with satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Peng, Y.; Xie, X.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

Aerosol cloud interaction continues to constitute one of the most significant uncertainties for anthropogenic climate perturbations. The parameterization of cloud droplet size distribution and autoconversion process from large scale cloud to rain can influence the estimation of first and second aerosol indirect effects in global climate models. We design a series of experiments focusing on the microphysical cloud scheme of NCAR CAM5 (Community Atmospheric Model Version 5) in transient historical run with realistic sea surface temperature and sea ice. We investigate the effect of three empirical, two semi-empirical and one analytical expressions for droplet size distribution on cloud properties and explore the statistical relationships between aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and simulated cloud variables, including cloud top droplet effective radius (CDER), cloud optical depth (COD), cloud water path (CWP). We also introduce the droplet spectral shape parameter into the autoconversion process to incorporate the effect of droplet size distribution on second aerosol indirect effect. Three satellite datasets (MODIS Terra/ MODIS Aqua/ AVHRR) are used to evaluate the simulated aerosol indirect effect from the model. Evident CDER decreasing with significant AOT increasing is found in the east coast of China to the North Pacific Ocean and the east coast of USA to the North Atlantic Ocean. Analytical and semi-empirical expressions for spectral shape parameterization show stronger first aerosol indirect effect but weaker second aerosol indirect effect than empirical expressions because of the narrower droplet size distribution.

Characterizing the evolution of climate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupikina, L.; Rehfeld, K.; Molkenthin, N.; Stolbova, V.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2014-06-01

Complex network theory has been successfully applied to understand the structural and functional topology of many dynamical systems from nature, society and technology. Many properties of these systems change over time, and, consequently, networks reconstructed from them will, too. However, although static and temporally changing networks have been studied extensively, methods to quantify their robustness as they evolve in time are lacking. In this paper we develop a theory to investigate how networks are changing within time based on the quantitative analysis of dissimilarities in the network structure. Our main result is the common component evolution function (CCEF) which characterizes network development over time. To test our approach we apply it to several model systems, Erdős-Rényi networks, analytically derived flow-based networks, and transient simulations from the START model for which we control the change of single parameters over time. Then we construct annual climate networks from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the Asian monsoon domain for the time period of 1970-2011 CE and use the CCEF to characterize the temporal evolution in this region. While this real-world CCEF displays a high degree of network persistence over large time lags, there are distinct time periods when common links break down. This phasing of these events coincides with years of strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomena, confirming previous studies. The proposed method can be applied for any type of evolving network where the link but not the node set is changing, and may be particularly useful to characterize nonstationary evolving systems using complex networks.

Linking the Weather Generator with Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, Martin; Farda, Ales; Skalak, Petr; Huth, Radan

2013-04-01

One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking the stochastic weather generator with the climate model output. The present contribution, in which the parametric daily surface weather generator (WG) M&Rfi is linked to the RCM output, follows two aims: (1) Validation of the new simulations of the present climate (1961-1990) made by the ALADIN-Climate Regional Climate Model at 25 km resolution. The WG parameters are derived from the RCM-simulated surface weather series and compared to those derived from weather series observed in 125 Czech meteorological stations. The set of WG parameters will include statistics of the surface temperature and precipitation series (including probability of wet day occurrence). (2) Presenting a methodology for linking the WG with RCM output. This methodology, which is based on merging information from observations and RCM, may be interpreted as a downscaling procedure, whose product is a gridded WG capable of producing realistic synthetic multivariate weather series for weather-ungauged locations. In this procedure, WG is calibrated with RCM-simulated multi-variate weather series in the first step, and the grid specific WG parameters are then de-biased by spatially interpolated correction factors based on comparison of WG parameters calibrated with gridded RCM weather series and spatially scarcer observations. The quality of the weather series produced by the resultant gridded WG will be assessed in terms of selected climatic characteristics (focusing on characteristics related to variability and extremes of surface temperature and precipitation). Acknowledgements: The present experiment is made within the frame of projects ALARO-Climate (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation), WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR) and VALUE (COST ES 1102 action).

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molnar, Gyula; Susskind, Joel

2008-01-01

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23-year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long-term climate-soil carbon feedback.

PubMed

Harte, John; Saleska, Scott R; Levy, Charlotte

2015-06-01

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow-moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long-term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long-term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disentangling Aerosol Cooling and Greenhouse Warming to Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storelvmo, Trude; Leirvik, Thomas; Phillips, Petter; Lohmann, Ulrike; Wild, Martin

2015-04-01

Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present a study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

PubMed

Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

2017-04-10

Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

Younger Dryas cooling and the Greenland climate response to CO2.

PubMed

Liu, Zhengyu; Carlson, Anders E; He, Feng; Brady, Esther C; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Briegleb, Bruce P; Wehrenberg, Mark; Clark, Peter U; Wu, Shu; Cheng, Jun; Zhang, Jiaxu; Noone, David; Zhu, Jiang

2012-07-10

Greenland ice-core δ(18)O-temperature reconstructions suggest a dramatic cooling during the Younger Dryas (YD; 12.9-11.7 ka), with temperatures being as cold as the earlier Oldest Dryas (OD; 18.0-14.6 ka) despite an approximately 50 ppm rise in atmospheric CO(2). Such YD cooling implies a muted Greenland climate response to atmospheric CO(2), contrary to physical predictions of an enhanced high-latitude response to future increases in CO(2). Here we show that North Atlantic sea surface temperature reconstructions as well as transient climate model simulations suggest that the YD over Greenland should be substantially warmer than the OD by approximately 5 °C in response to increased atmospheric CO(2). Additional experiments with an isotope-enabled model suggest that the apparent YD temperature reconstruction derived from the ice-core δ(18)O record is likely an artifact of an altered temperature-δ(18)O relationship due to changing deglacial atmospheric circulation. Our results thus suggest that Greenland climate was warmer during the YD relative to the OD in response to rising atmospheric CO(2), consistent with sea surface temperature reconstructions and physical predictions, and has a sensitivity approximately twice that found in climate models for current climate due to an enhanced albedo feedback during the last deglaciation.

Setting up a model intercomparison project for the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Valdes, P. J.; Roche, D. M.; Kageyama, M.

2014-12-01

The last deglaciation (~ 21-9 ka) presents a series of opportunities to study the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate changes and long-term trends in the Earth System. Most of the forcings are relatively well constrained and geological archives record responses over a range of timescales. Despite this, large uncertainties remain over the feedback loops that culminated in the collapse of the great Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, and a consensus has yet to be reached on the chains of events that led to rapid surface warming and cooling during this period.Climate models are powerful tools for quantitatively assessing these outstanding issues through their ability to temporally resolve cause and effect, as well as break down the contributions from different forcings. This is well demonstrated by pioneering work; for example by Liu et al. (2009), Roche et al. (2011), Gregoire et al. (2012) and Menviel et al. (2011). However, such work is not without challenges; model-geological data mismatches remain unsolved and it is difficult to compare results from different models with unique experiment designs. Therefore, we have established a multidisciplinary Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project working group to coordinate transient climate model simulations and geological archive compilations of the last deglaciation. Here, we present the plans and progress of the working group in its first phase of activity; the investigation of Heinrich Stadial 1 and the lead into the Bolling warming event. We describe the set-up of the core deglacial experiment, explain our approach for dealing with uncertain climate forcings and outline our solutions to challenges posed by this research. By defining a common experiment design, we have built a framework to include models of different speeds, complexities and resolution, maximising the reward of this varied approach. One of the next challenges is to compile transient proxy records and develop a methodology for dealing with uncertainty and error in model-geological data comparisons. Through this global and interdisciplinary initiative, we combine multi-proxy records with a suite of different modelling techniques to test hypotheses for abrupt climate changes and reconstruct the chain of events that deglaciated the Earth 21-9 ka.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Climate Change Adopted Building Envelope as A Protector of Human Health in the Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Januszkiewicz, Krystyna

2017-10-01

Recently, an expanded understanding of building performance acknowledges that all forces acting on buildings (climate, energies, information, and human agents) are not static and fixed, but rather mutable and transient. With the use of parametric and multi-criteria optimization digital tools, buildings’ envelopes can be designed to respond to various requirements. This paper explores the possibilities of architectural design to benefit human conditions, which encompasses mental well-being, environmental quality of life during the Climate Change era. The first part of the paper defines the main factors (such as: lack of green nature and sunlight, noise and pollution) which are influencing the formation of psychological disorder in big cities. The negative impact of these factors is constantly increasing in the time of Climate Change progressing. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by author. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights a social problem, such as mental well-being, resulting from urbanization or effects of the climate change, and serves as a useful background for further research on the possibilities of redefining sustainable and human friendly design.

Public interest in climate change over the past decade and the effects of the ‘climategate’ media event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderegg, William R. L.; Goldsmith, Gregory R.

2014-05-01

Despite overwhelming scientific consensus concerning anthropogenic climate change, many in the non-expert public perceive climate change as debated and contentious. There is concern that two recent high-profile media events—the hacking of the University of East Anglia emails and the Himalayan glacier melt rate presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—may have altered public opinion of climate change. While survey data is valuable for tracking public perception and opinion over time, including in response to climate-related media events, emerging methods that facilitate rapid assessment of spatial and temporal patterns in public interest and opinion could be exceptionally valuable for understanding and responding to these events’ effects. We use a novel, freely-available dataset of worldwide web search term volumes to assess temporal patterns of interest in climate change over the past ten years, with a particular focus on looking at indicators of climate change skepticism around the high-profile media events. We find that both around the world and in the US, the public searches for the issue as ‘global warming,’ rather than ‘climate change,’ and that search volumes have been declining since a 2007 peak. We observe high, but transient spikes of search terms indicating skepticism around the two media events, but find no evidence of effects lasting more than a few months. Our results indicate that while such media events are visible in the short-term, they have little effect on salience of skeptical climate search terms on longer time-scales.

A Large-Scale, High-Resolution Hydrological Model Parameter Data Set for Climate Change Impact Assessment for the Conterminous US

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oubeidillah, Abdoul A; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

2014-01-01

To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic dataset with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous United States at refined 1/24 (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter dataset was prepared for the macro-scale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VICmore » simulation was driven by DAYMET daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter dataset may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous United States. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter dataset, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter dataset will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.« less

Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, Stephen; Futter, Martyn; Ledesma, Jose; Teutschbein, Claudia; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar

2016-07-01

There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35 % when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.

Exact results for the finite time thermodynamic uncertainty relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manikandan, Sreekanth K.; Krishnamurthy, Supriya

2018-03-01

We obtain exact results for the recently discovered finite-time thermodynamic uncertainty relation, for the dissipated work W d , in a stochastically driven system with non-Gaussian work statistics, both in the steady state and transient regimes, by obtaining exact expressions for any moment of W d at arbitrary times. The uncertainty function (the Fano factor of W d ) is bounded from below by 2k_BT as expected, for all times τ, in both steady state and transient regimes. The lower bound is reached at τ=0 as well as when certain system parameters vanish (corresponding to an equilibrium state). Surprisingly, we find that the uncertainty function also reaches a constant value at large τ for all the cases we have looked at. For a system starting and remaining in steady state, the uncertainty function increases monotonically, as a function of τ as well as other system parameters, implying that the large τ value is also an upper bound. For the same system in the transient regime, however, we find that the uncertainty function can have a local minimum at an accessible time τm , for a range of parameter values. The large τ value for the uncertainty function is hence not a bound in this case. The non-monotonicity suggests, rather counter-intuitively, that there might be an optimal time for the working of microscopic machines, as well as an optimal configuration in the phase space of parameter values. Our solutions show that the ratios of higher moments of the dissipated work are also bounded from below by 2k_BT . For another model, also solvable by our methods, which never reaches a steady state, the uncertainty function, is in some cases, bounded from below by a value less than 2k_BT .

Predicting forest attributes from climate data using a recursive partitioning and regression tree algorithm

Treesearch

Greg C. Liknes; Christopher W. Woodall; Charles H. Perry

2009-01-01

Climate information frequently is included in geospatial modeling efforts to improve the predictive capability of other data sources. The selection of an appropriate climate data source requires consideration given the number of choices available. With regard to climate data, there are a variety of parameters (e.g., temperature, humidity, precipitation), time intervals...

Effects of climate on growth traits of river red gum are determined by respiration parameters

Treesearch

Richard S. Criddle; Thimmappa S. Anekonda; Sharon Tong; John N. Church; F. Thomas Ledig; Lee D. Hansen

2000-01-01

Temperature is the major uncontrollable climate variable in plantation forestry. Matching plants to climate is essential for optimizing growth. Matching is usually done with field trials because of the lack of a predictive relation between laboratory measurements of physiological responses and climatic factors affecting growth. This paper evaluates the potential of...

Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

2014-12-01

The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

2015-05-01

Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect.

Response of the European ecosystems to climate change: a modelling approach for the 21st century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dury, Marie; Warnant, Pierre; François, Louis; Henrot, Alexandra; Favre, Eric; Hambuckers, Alain

2010-05-01

According to projections, over the 21st century, significant climatic changes appear and will be strengthened all over the world with the continuing increase of the atmospheric CO2 level. Climate will be generally warmer with notably changes in the seasonality and in the precipitation regime. These changes will have major impacts on the environment and on the biodiversity of natural ecosystems. Geographic distribution of ecosystems may be modified since species will be driven to migrate towards more suitable areas (e. g., shifting of the arctic tree lines). The CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Carbon Assimilation in the Biosphere) forced with 21st century climate scenarios of the IPCC (ARPEGE-Climat model) is used to illustrate and analyse the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution and productivity over Europe. Changes in hydrological budget (e. g., runoff) and fire effects on forests will also be shown. Transient runs (1975-2100) with a new dynamic module introduced in CARAIB are performed to follow the future evolutions. In the new module, the processes of species establishment, competition and mortality due to stresses and disturbances have been improved. Among others, increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer climate increase tree productivity while drier conditions decrease it. Regions with more severe droughts will also be affected by an increase of wildfire frequency, which may have large impacts on vegetation density and distribution.

The physics of Martian weather and climate: a review.

PubMed

Read, P L; Lewis, S R; Mulholland, D P

2015-12-01

The planet Mars hosts an atmosphere that is perhaps the closest in terms of its meteorology and climate to that of the Earth. But Mars differs from Earth in its greater distance from the Sun, its smaller size, its lack of liquid oceans and its thinner atmosphere, composed mainly of CO(2). These factors give Mars a rather different climate to that of the Earth. In this article we review various aspects of the martian climate system from a physicist's viewpoint, focusing on the processes that control the martian environment and comparing these with corresponding processes on Earth. These include the radiative and thermodynamical processes that determine the surface temperature and vertical structure of the atmosphere, the fluid dynamics of its atmospheric motions, and the key cycles of mineral dust and volatile transport. In many ways, the climate of Mars is as complicated and diverse as that of the Earth, with complex nonlinear feedbacks that affect its response to variations in external forcing. Recent work has shown that the martian climate is anything but static, but is almost certainly in a continual state of transient response to slowly varying insolation associated with cyclic variations in its orbit and rotation. We conclude with a discussion of the physical processes underlying these long- term climate variations on Mars, and an overview of some of the most intriguing outstanding problems that should be a focus for future observational and theoretical studies.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Quantitative estimation of climatic parameters from vegetation data in North America by the mutual climatic range technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Katherine H.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Strickland, Laura E.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Thompson, Robert S.; Shafer, Sarah L.

2012-01-01

The mutual climatic range (MCR) technique is perhaps the most widely used method for estimating past climatic parameters from fossil assemblages, largely because it can be conducted on a simple list of the taxa present in an assemblage. When applied to plant macrofossil data, this unweighted approach (MCRun) will frequently identify a large range for a given climatic parameter where the species in an assemblage can theoretically live together. To narrow this range, we devised a new weighted approach (MCRwt) that employs information from the modern relations between climatic parameters and plant distributions to lessen the influence of the "tails" of the distributions of the climatic data associated with the taxa in an assemblage. To assess the performance of the MCR approaches, we applied them to a set of modern climatic data and plant distributions on a 25-km grid for North America, and compared observed and estimated climatic values for each grid point. In general, MCRwt was superior to MCRun in providing smaller anomalies, less bias, and better correlations between observed and estimated values. However, by the same measures, the results of Modern Analog Technique (MAT) approaches were superior to MCRwt. Although this might be reason to favor MAT approaches, they are based on assumptions that may not be valid for paleoclimatic reconstructions, including that: 1) the absence of a taxon from a fossil sample is meaningful, 2) plant associations were largely unaffected by past changes in either levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide or in the seasonal distributions of solar radiation, and 3) plant associations of the past are adequately represented on the modern landscape. To illustrate the application of these MCR and MAT approaches to paleoclimatic reconstructions, we applied them to a Pleistocene paleobotanical assemblage from the western United States. From our examinations of the estimates of modern and past climates from vegetation assemblages, we conclude that the MCRun technique provides reliable and unbiased estimates of the ranges of possible climatic conditions that can reasonably be associated with these assemblages. The application of MCRwt and MAT approaches can further constrain these estimates and may provide a systematic way to assess uncertainty. The data sets required for MCR analyses in North America are provided in a parallel publication.

Constructing optimal ensemble projections for predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, Oleg; Kokorev, Vasily

2013-04-01

Large uncertainties in climate impact modelling are associated with the forcing climate data. This study is targeted at the evaluation of the quality of GCM-based climatic projections in the specific context of predictive environmental modelling in Northern Eurasia. To accomplish this task, we used the output from 36 CMIP5 GCMs from the IPCC AR-5 data base for the control period 1975-2005 and calculated several climatic characteristics and indexes that are most often used in the impact models, i.e. the summer warmth index, duration of the vegetation growth period, precipitation sums, dryness index, thawing degree-day sums, and the annual temperature amplitude. We used data from 744 weather stations in Russia and neighbouring countries to analyze the spatial patterns of modern climatic change and to delineate 17 large regions with coherent temperature changes in the past few decades. GSM results and observational data were averaged over the coherent regions and compared with each other. Ultimately, we evaluated the skills of individual models, ranked them in the context of regional impact modelling and identified top-end GCMs that "better than average" reproduce modern regional changes of the selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes. Selected top-end GCMs were used to compose several ensembles, each combining results from the different number of models. Ensembles were ranked using the same algorithm and outliers eliminated. We then used data from top-end ensembles for the 2000-2100 period to construct the climatic projections that are likely to be "better than average" in predicting climatic parameters that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia. The ultimate conclusions of our study are the following. • High-end GCMs that demonstrate excellent skills in conventional atmospheric model intercomparison experiments are not necessarily the best in replicating climatic characteristics that govern the state of environment in Northern Eurasia, and independent model evaluation on regional level is necessary to identify "better than average" GCMs. • Each of the ensembles combining results from several "better than average" models replicate selected meteorological parameters and climatic indexes better than any single GCM. The ensemble skills are parameter-specific and depend on models it consists of. The best results are not necessarily those based on the ensemble comprised by all "better than average" models. • Comprehensive evaluation of climatic scenarios using specific criteria narrows the range of uncertainties in environmental projections.

Modeling hypertrophic IP3 transients in the cardiac myocyte.

PubMed

Cooling, Michael; Hunter, Peter; Crampin, Edmund J

2007-11-15

Cardiac hypertrophy is a known risk factor for heart disease, and at the cellular level is caused by a complex interaction of signal transduction pathways. The IP3-calcineurin pathway plays an important role in stimulating the transcription factor NFAT which binds to DNA cooperatively with other hypertrophic transcription factors. Using available kinetic data, we construct a mathematical model of the IP3 signal production system after stimulation by a hypertrophic alpha-adrenergic agonist (endothelin-1) in the mouse atrial cardiac myocyte. We use a global sensitivity analysis to identify key controlling parameters with respect to the resultant IP3 transient, including the phosphorylation of cell-membrane receptors, the ligand strength and binding kinetics to precoupled (with G(alpha)GDP) receptor, and the kinetics associated with precoupling the receptors. We show that the kinetics associated with the receptor system contribute to the behavior of the system to a great extent, with precoupled receptors driving the response to extracellular ligand. Finally, by reparameterizing for a second hypertrophic alpha-adrenergic agonist, angiotensin-II, we show that differences in key receptor kinetic and membrane density parameters are sufficient to explain different observed IP3 transients in essentially the same pathway.

The nonlinear oil-water two-phase flow behavior for a horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yong; Tao, Zhengwu; Chen, Liang; Ma, Xin

2017-10-01

Carbonate reservoir is one of the important reservoirs in the world. Because of the characteristics of carbonate reservoir, horizontal well has become a key technology for efficiently developing carbonate reservoir. Establishing corresponding mathematical models and analyzing transient pressure behaviors of this type of well-reservoir configuration can provide a better understanding of fluid flow patterns in formation as well as estimations of important parameters. A mathematical model for a oil-water two-phase flow horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir by conceptualizing vugs as spherical shapes are presented in this article. A semi-analytical solution is obtained in the Laplace domain using source function theory, Laplace transformation, and superposition principle. Analysis of transient pressure responses indicates that seven characteristic flow periods of horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir can be identified. Parametric analysis shows that water saturation of matrix, vug and fracture system, horizontal section length, and horizontal well position can significantly influence the transient pressure responses of horizontal well in triple media carbonate reservoir. The model presented in this article can be applied to obtain important parameters pertinent to reservoir by type curve matching.

Thermal characterizations analysis of high-power ThinGaN cool-white light-emitting diodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raypah, Muna E.; Devarajan, Mutharasu; Ahmed, Anas A.; Sulaiman, Fauziah

2018-03-01

Analysis of thermal properties plays an important role in the thermal management of high-power (HP) lighting-emitting diodes (LEDs). Thermal resistance, thermal capacitance, and thermal time constant are essential parameters for the optimal design of the LED device and system, particularly for dynamic performance study. In this paper, thermal characterization and thermal time constant of ThinGaN HP LEDs are investigated. Three HP cool-white ThinGaN LEDs from different manufacturers are used in this study. A forward-voltage method using thermal transient tester (T3Ster) system is employed to determine the LEDs' thermal parameters at various operating conditions. The junction temperature transient response is described by a multi-exponential function model to extract thermal time constants. The transient response curve is divided into three layers and expressed by three exponential functions. Each layer is associated with a particular thermal time constant, thermal resistance, and thermal capacitance. It is found that the thermal time constant of LED package is on the order of 22 to 100 ms. Comparison between the experimental results is carried out to show the design effects on thermal performance of the LED package.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

PubMed Central

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C.; Scott, Jeffery R.; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. PMID:24891392

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

PubMed

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

2014-07-13

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-05-29

Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. And for a complex system such as a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. An adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm is proposed to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; these good values are then averaged to give the final globalmore » uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.« less

Damping of transient energy growth of three-dimensional perturbations in hydromagnetic pipe flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Åkerstedt, Hans O.

1995-05-01

The stability of infinitesimal three-dimensional perturbations in hydromagnetic pipe flow where the applied magnetic field is in the streamwise direction is considered. The study is limited to the case of small magnetic Reynolds numbers and the main objective of the paper is to study the transient evolution of the kinetic energy. A general effect of the magnetic field is to increase the damping of the eigenvalues of the individual perturbation modes. For the case of infinitely long perturbations, which in the non-magnetic case has been found to have the largest transient growth, the magnetic field perturbations are decoupled from the flow and there is no effect on the stability properties of the flow. For shorter waves, and for moderate values of the interaction parameter ( I = RmA2 ≈ 1-3) the hydromagnetic damping effect on the transient energy growth is, however, substantial, especially for small azimuthal mode numbers n. (Here Rm is the magnetic Reynolds number and A is the Alfvén number.) This parameter range has been found in experiments to give significantly higher transitional Reynolds numbers (Fraim and Heiser, 1968). Since the hydromagnetic damping effect is weak for long waves and large for shorter waves, the implications of the results to ordinary pipe flow is that the energy growth found for short waves may be more crucial as a mechanism for transition than the corresponding growth for longer waves.

Evidence of Hierarchy in the Complex Fractured System of Geropotamos (Crete, Greece), as Extracted from Transient Electromagnetic Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallianatos, Filippos; Kouli, Maria; Kalisperi, Despina

2018-03-01

The essential goals of this paper are to test the transient electromagnetic (TEM) response in a fractured geological complex medium and to better understand the physics introduced by associating a roughness parameter β to the geological formation. An anomalous fractional diffusion approach is incorporated to describe the electromagnetic induction in rough multi-scaled geological structures. The multi-scaling characteristics of Geropotamos basin in Crete are revealed through the analysis of transient step-off response of an EM loop antenna. The semi-empirical parameters derived from late-time TEM measurements are correlated with the multi-scale heterogeneities of the medium. Certain interesting properties of the late-time slope γ(β) and the power law of near surface resistivity distribution, as extracted from TEM inversion for different depth, are presented. The analysis of the parameter γ(β) which scales the induced voltage in the loop in the late stage of the electromagnetic response leads to a different view of the EM geophysical data interpretation. We show that it is strongly correlated with areas of high fracture density within the geological formations of the Geropotamos area. For that reason, it is proposed as a local multi-scaling empirical index. The results of this paper suggest that anomalous diffusion could be a viable physical mechanism for the fractal transport of charge carriers, explaining observed late-time TEM responses across a variety of natural geological settings.

Projecting date palm distribution in Iran under climate change using topography, physicochemical soil properties, soil taxonomy, land use, and climate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2014-11-01

This study set out to model potential date palm distribution under current and future climate scenarios using an emission scenario, in conjunction with two different global climate models (GCMs): CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS), and MIROC-H (MR), and to refine results based on suitability under four nonclimatic parameters. Areas containing suitable physicochemical soil properties and suitable soil taxonomy, together with land slopes of less than 10° and suitable land uses for date palm ( Phoenix dactylifera) were selected as appropriate refining tools to ensure the CLIMEX results were accurate and robust. Results showed that large regions of Iran are projected as likely to become climatically suitable for date palm cultivation based on the projected scenarios for the years 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The study also showed CLIMEX outputs merit refinement by nonclimatic parameters and that the incremental introduction of each additional parameter decreased the disagreement between GCMs. Furthermore, the study indicated that the least amount of disagreement in terms of areas conducive to date palm cultivation resulted from CS and MR GCMs when the locations of suitable physicochemical soil properties and soil taxonomy were used as refinement tools.

Simple Astronomical Theory of Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benumof, Reuben

1979-01-01

The author derives, applying perturbation theory, from a simple astronomical model the approximate periods of secular variation of some of the parameters of the Earth's orbit and relates these periods to the past climate of the Earth, indicating the difficulties in predicting the climate of the future. (GA)

Land-surface influences on weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, F.; Mintz, Y.

1984-01-01

Land-surface influences on weather and climate are reviewed. The interrelationship of vegetation, evapotranspiration, atmospheric circulation, and climate is discussed. Global precipitation, soil moisture, the seasonal water cycle, heat transfer, and atmospheric temperature are among the parameters considered in the context of a general biosphere model.

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model

PubMed Central

Jiang, Yueyang; Zhuang, Qianlai; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen; Sokolov, Andrei; Kicklighter, David; Melillo, Jerry

2012-01-01

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue. PMID:22822437

Seasonal modulation of the Asian summer monsoon between the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age: a multi model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamae, Youichi; Kawana, Toshi; Oshiro, Megumi; Ueda, Hiroaki

2017-12-01

Instrumental and proxy records indicate remarkable global climate variability over the last millennium, influenced by solar irradiance, Earth's orbital parameters, volcanic eruptions and human activities. Numerical model simulations and proxy data suggest an enhanced Asian summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) compared to the Little Ice Age (LIA). Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA. Ten climate model simulations prescribing historical radiative forcing that includes orbital parameters consistently reproduce an enhanced MWP Asian monsoon in late summer and a weakened monsoon in early summer. Weakened, then enhanced Northern Hemisphere insolation before and after June leads to a seasonally asymmetric temperature response over the Eurasian continent, resulting in a seasonal reversal of the signs of MWP-LIA anomalies in land-sea thermal contrast, atmospheric circulation, and rainfall from early to late summer. This seasonal asymmetry in monsoon response is consistently found among the different climate models and is reproduced by an idealized model simulation forced solely by orbital parameters. The results of this study indicate that slow variation in the Earth's orbital parameters contributes to centennial variability in the Asian monsoon transition.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Wide Field Radio Transient Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bower, Geoffrey

2011-04-01

The time domain of the radio wavelength sky has been only sparsely explored. Nevertheless, serendipitous discovery and results from limited surveys indicate that there is much to be found on timescales from nanoseconds to years and at wavelengths from meters to millimeters. These observations have revealed unexpected phenomena such as rotating radio transients and coherent pulses from brown dwarfs. Additionally, archival studies have revealed an unknown class of radio transients without radio, optical, or high-energy hosts. The new generation of centimeter-wave radio telescopes such as the Allen Telescope Array (ATA) will exploit wide fields of view and flexible digital signal processing to systematically explore radio transient parameter space, as well as lay the scientific and technical foundation for the Square Kilometer Array. Known unknowns that will be the target of future transient surveys include orphan gamma-ray burst afterglows, radio supernovae, tidally-disrupted stars, flare stars, and magnetars. While probing the variable sky, these surveys will also provide unprecedented information on the static radio sky. I will present results from three large ATA surveys (the Fly's Eye survey, the ATA Twenty CM Survey (ATATS), and the Pi GHz Survey (PiGSS)) and several small ATA transient searches. Finally, I will discuss the landscape and opportunities for future instruments at centimeter wavelengths.