Output-only modal parameter estimator of linear time-varying structural systems based on vector TAR model and least squares support vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Si-Da; Ma, Yuan-Chen; Liu, Li; Kang, Jie; Ma, Zhi-Sai; Yu, Lei

2018-01-01

Identification of time-varying modal parameters contributes to the structural health monitoring, fault detection, vibration control, etc. of the operational time-varying structural systems. However, it is a challenging task because there is not more information for the identification of the time-varying systems than that of the time-invariant systems. This paper presents a vector time-dependent autoregressive model and least squares support vector machine based modal parameter estimator for linear time-varying structural systems in case of output-only measurements. To reduce the computational cost, a Wendland's compactly supported radial basis function is used to achieve the sparsity of the Gram matrix. A Gamma-test-based non-parametric approach of selecting the regularization factor is adapted for the proposed estimator to replace the time-consuming n-fold cross validation. A series of numerical examples have illustrated the advantages of the proposed modal parameter estimator on the suppression of the overestimate and the short data. A laboratory experiment has further validated the proposed estimator.

Quasi-Linear Parameter Varying Representation of General Aircraft Dynamics Over Non-Trim Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob

2007-01-01

For applying linear parameter varying (LPV) control synthesis and analysis to a nonlinear system, it is required that a nonlinear system be represented in the form of an LPV model. In this paper, a new representation method is developed to construct an LPV model from a nonlinear mathematical model without the restriction that an operating point must be in the neighborhood of equilibrium points. An LPV model constructed by the new method preserves local stabilities of the original nonlinear system at "frozen" scheduling parameters and also represents the original nonlinear dynamics of a system over a non-trim region. An LPV model of the motion of FASER (Free-flying Aircraft for Subscale Experimental Research) is constructed by the new method.

Nonlinear control of linear parameter varying systems with applications to hypersonic vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, Zachary Donald

The focus of this dissertation is to design a controller for linear parameter varying (LPV) systems, apply it specifically to air-breathing hypersonic vehicles, and examine the interplay between control performance and the structural dynamics design. Specifically a Lyapunov-based continuous robust controller is developed that yields exponential tracking of a reference model, despite the presence of bounded, nonvanishing disturbances. The hypersonic vehicle has time varying parameters, specifically temperature profiles, and its dynamics can be reduced to an LPV system with additive disturbances. Since the HSV can be modeled as an LPV system the proposed control design is directly applicable. The control performance is directly examined through simulations. A wide variety of applications exist that can be effectively modeled as LPV systems. In particular, flight systems have historically been modeled as LPV systems and associated control tools have been applied such as gain-scheduling, linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), linear fractional transformations (LFT), and mu-types. However, as the type of flight environments and trajectories become more demanding, the traditional LPV controllers may no longer be sufficient. In particular, hypersonic flight vehicles (HSVs) present an inherently difficult problem because of the nonlinear aerothermoelastic coupling effects in the dynamics. HSV flight conditions produce temperature variations that can alter both the structural dynamics and flight dynamics. Starting with the full nonlinear dynamics, the aerothermoelastic effects are modeled by a temperature dependent, parameter varying state-space representation with added disturbances. The model includes an uncertain parameter varying state matrix, an uncertain parameter varying non-square (column deficient) input matrix, and an additive bounded disturbance. In this dissertation, a robust dynamic controller is formulated for a uncertain and disturbed LPV system. The developed controller is then applied to a HSV model, and a Lyapunov analysis is used to prove global exponential reference model tracking in the presence of uncertainty in the state and input matrices and exogenous disturbances. Simulations with a spectrum of gains and temperature profiles on the full nonlinear dynamic model of the HSV is used to illustrate the performance and robustness of the developed controller. In addition, this work considers how the performance of the developed controller varies over a wide variety of control gains and temperature profiles and are optimized with respect to different performance metrics. Specifically, various temperature profile models and related nonlinear temperature dependent disturbances are used to characterize the relative control performance and effort for each model. Examining such metrics as a function of temperature provides a potential inroad to examine the interplay between structural/thermal protection design and control development and has application for future HSV design and control implementation.

ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

PubMed

Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

2010-03-01

Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and quantified for individual patients. As a result, personalized treatment decision based on viral dynamic models is possible.

Time-varying BRDFs.

PubMed

Sun, Bo; Sunkavalli, Kalyan; Ramamoorthi, Ravi; Belhumeur, Peter N; Nayar, Shree K

2007-01-01

The properties of virtually all real-world materials change with time, causing their bidirectional reflectance distribution functions (BRDFs) to be time varying. However, none of the existing BRDF models and databases take time variation into consideration; they represent the appearance of a material at a single time instance. In this paper, we address the acquisition, analysis, modeling, and rendering of a wide range of time-varying BRDFs (TVBRDFs). We have developed an acquisition system that is capable of sampling a material's BRDF at multiple time instances, with each time sample acquired within 36 sec. We have used this acquisition system to measure the BRDFs of a wide range of time-varying phenomena, which include the drying of various types of paints (watercolor, spray, and oil), the drying of wet rough surfaces (cement, plaster, and fabrics), the accumulation of dusts (household and joint compound) on surfaces, and the melting of materials (chocolate). Analytic BRDF functions are fit to these measurements and the model parameters' variations with time are analyzed. Each category exhibits interesting and sometimes nonintuitive parameter trends. These parameter trends are then used to develop analytic TVBRDF models. The analytic TVBRDF models enable us to apply effects such as paint drying and dust accumulation to arbitrary surfaces and novel materials.

Hyper- and viscoelastic modeling of needle and brain tissue interaction.

PubMed

Lehocky, Craig A; Yixing Shi; Riviere, Cameron N

2014-01-01

Deep needle insertion into brain is important for both diagnostic and therapeutic clinical interventions. We have developed an automated system for robotically steering flexible needles within the brain to improve targeting accuracy. In this work, we have developed a finite element needle-tissue interaction model that allows for the investigation of safe parameters for needle steering. The tissue model implemented contains both hyperelastic and viscoelastic properties to simulate the instantaneous and time-dependent responses of brain tissue. Several needle models were developed with varying parameters to study the effects of the parameters on tissue stress, strain and strain rate during needle insertion and rotation. The parameters varied include needle radius, bevel angle, bevel tip fillet radius, insertion speed, and rotation speed. The results will guide the design of safe needle tips and control systems for intracerebral needle steering.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

Transitions of interaction outcomes in a uni-directional consumer-resource system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2011-01-01

A uni-directional consumer-resource system of two species is analyzed. Our aim is to understand the mechanisms that determine how the interaction outcomes depend on the context of the interaction; that is, on the model parameters. The dynamic behavior of the model is described and, in particular, it is demonstrated that no periodic orbits exist. Then the parameter (factor) space is shown to be divided into four regions, which correspond to the four forms of interaction outcomes; i.e. mutualism, commensalism, parasitism and amensalism. It is shown that the interaction outcomes of the system transition smoothly among these four forms when the parameters of the system are varied continuously. Varying each parameter individually or varying pairs of parameters can also lead to smooth transitions between the interaction outcomes. The analysis leads to both conditions for which each species achieves its maximal density, and situations in which periodic oscillations of the interaction outcomes emerge. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Enhancement of multimodality texture-based prediction models via optimization of PET and MR image acquisition protocols: a proof of concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallières, Martin; Laberge, Sébastien; Diamant, André; El Naqa, Issam

2017-11-01

Texture-based radiomic models constructed from medical images have the potential to support cancer treatment management via personalized assessment of tumour aggressiveness. While the identification of stable texture features under varying imaging settings is crucial for the translation of radiomics analysis into routine clinical practice, we hypothesize in this work that a complementary optimization of image acquisition parameters prior to texture feature extraction could enhance the predictive performance of texture-based radiomic models. As a proof of concept, we evaluated the possibility of enhancing a model constructed for the early prediction of lung metastases in soft-tissue sarcomas by optimizing PET and MR image acquisition protocols via computerized simulations of image acquisitions with varying parameters. Simulated PET images from 30 STS patients were acquired by varying the extent of axial data combined per slice (‘span’). Simulated T 1-weighted and T 2-weighted MR images were acquired by varying the repetition time and echo time in a spin-echo pulse sequence, respectively. We analyzed the impact of the variations of PET and MR image acquisition parameters on individual textures, and we investigated how these variations could enhance the global response and the predictive properties of a texture-based model. Our results suggest that it is feasible to identify an optimal set of image acquisition parameters to improve prediction performance. The model constructed with textures extracted from simulated images acquired with a standard clinical set of acquisition parameters reached an average AUC of 0.84 +/- 0.01 in bootstrap testing experiments. In comparison, the model performance significantly increased using an optimal set of image acquisition parameters (p = 0.04 ), with an average AUC of 0.89 +/- 0.01 . Ultimately, specific acquisition protocols optimized to generate superior radiomics measurements for a given clinical problem could be developed and standardized via dedicated computer simulations and thereafter validated using clinical scanners.

Linear parameter varying identification of ankle joint intrinsic stiffness during imposed walking movements.

PubMed

Sobhani Tehrani, Ehsan; Jalaleddini, Kian; Kearney, Robert E

2013-01-01

This paper describes a novel model structure and identification method for the time-varying, intrinsic stiffness of human ankle joint during imposed walking (IW) movements. The model structure is based on the superposition of a large signal, linear, time-invariant (LTI) model and a small signal linear-parameter varying (LPV) model. The methodology is based on a two-step algorithm; the LTI model is first estimated using data from an unperturbed IW trial. Then, the LPV model is identified using data from a perturbed IW trial with the output predictions of the LTI model removed from the measured torque. Experimental results demonstrate that the method accurately tracks the continuous-time variation of normal ankle intrinsic stiffness when the joint position changes during the IW movement. Intrinsic stiffness gain decreases from full plantarflexion to near the mid-point of plantarflexion and then increases substantially as the ankle is dosriflexed.

Exploring the evolution of color-luminosity parameter β and its effects on parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuang; Li, Yun-He; Zhang, Xin

2014-03-01

It has been found in previous studies that, for the Supernova Legacy Survey three-year (SNLS3) data, there is strong evidence for the redshift evolution of color-luminosity parameter β. In this paper, using the three simplest dark energy models, i.e., the Λ-cold-dark-matter (ΛCDM) model, the wCDM model, and the Chevallier-Polarski-Linder model, we further explore the evolution of β and its effects on parameter estimation. In addition to the SNLS3 data, we also take into account the Planck distance priors data of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), as well as the latest galaxy clustering (GC) data extracted from SDSS DR7 and BOSS. We find that, for all the models, adding a parameter of β can reduce χmin2 by ˜36, indicating that β1=0 is ruled out at 6σ confidence levels. In other words, β deviates from a constant at 6σ confidence levels. This conclusion is insensitive to the dark energy models considered, showing the importance of considering the evolution of β in the cosmology fits. Furthermore, it is found that varying β can significantly change the fitting results of various cosmological parameters: using the SNLS3 data alone, varying β yields a larger Ωm for the ΛCDM model; using the SNLS3+CMB +GC data, varying β yields a larger Ωm and a smaller h for all the models. Moreover, we find that these results are much closer to those given by the CMB +GC data compared to the cases of treating β as a constant. This indicates that considering the evolution of β is very helpful for reducing the tension between supernova and other cosmological observations.

Robust sensor fault detection and isolation of gas turbine engines subjected to time-varying parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourbabaee, Bahareh; Meskin, Nader; Khorasani, Khashayar

2016-08-01

In this paper, a novel robust sensor fault detection and isolation (FDI) strategy using the multiple model-based (MM) approach is proposed that remains robust with respect to both time-varying parameter uncertainties and process and measurement noise in all the channels. The scheme is composed of robust Kalman filters (RKF) that are constructed for multiple piecewise linear (PWL) models that are constructed at various operating points of an uncertain nonlinear system. The parameter uncertainty is modeled by using a time-varying norm bounded admissible structure that affects all the PWL state space matrices. The robust Kalman filter gain matrices are designed by solving two algebraic Riccati equations (AREs) that are expressed as two linear matrix inequality (LMI) feasibility conditions. The proposed multiple RKF-based FDI scheme is simulated for a single spool gas turbine engine to diagnose various sensor faults despite the presence of parameter uncertainties, process and measurement noise. Our comparative studies confirm the superiority of our proposed FDI method when compared to the methods that are available in the literature.

Dual Extended Kalman Filter for the Identification of Time-Varying Human Manual Control Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Popovici, Alexandru; Zaal, Peter M. T.; Pool, Daan M.

2017-01-01

A Dual Extended Kalman Filter was implemented for the identification of time-varying human manual control behavior. Two filters that run concurrently were used, a state filter that estimates the equalization dynamics, and a parameter filter that estimates the neuromuscular parameters and time delay. Time-varying parameters were modeled as a random walk. The filter successfully estimated time-varying human control behavior in both simulated and experimental data. Simple guidelines are proposed for the tuning of the process and measurement covariance matrices and the initial parameter estimates. The tuning was performed on simulation data, and when applied on experimental data, only an increase in measurement process noise power was required in order for the filter to converge and estimate all parameters. A sensitivity analysis to initial parameter estimates showed that the filter is more sensitive to poor initial choices of neuromuscular parameters than equalization parameters, and bad choices for initial parameters can result in divergence, slow convergence, or parameter estimates that do not have a real physical interpretation. The promising results when applied to experimental data, together with its simple tuning and low dimension of the state-space, make the use of the Dual Extended Kalman Filter a viable option for identifying time-varying human control parameters in manual tracking tasks, which could be used in real-time human state monitoring and adaptive human-vehicle haptic interfaces.

LPV gain-scheduled control of SCR aftertreatment systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meisami-Azad, Mona; Mohammadpour, Javad; Grigoriadis, Karolos M.; Harold, Michael P.; Franchek, Matthew A.

2012-01-01

Hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide and some of other polluting emissions produced by diesel engines are usually lower than those produced by gasoline engines. While great strides have been made in the exhaust aftertreatment of vehicular pollutants, the elimination of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) from diesel vehicles is still a challenge. The primary reason is that diesel combustion is a fuel-lean process, and hence there is significant unreacted oxygen in the exhaust. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) is a well-developed technology for power plants and has been recently employed for reducing NO x emissions from automotive sources and in particular, heavy-duty diesel engines. In this article, we develop a linear parameter-varying (LPV) feedforward/feedback control design method for the SCR aftertreatment system to decrease NO x emissions while keeping ammonia slippage to a desired low level downstream the catalyst. The performance of the closed-loop system obtained from the interconnection of the SCR system and the output feedback LPV control strategy is then compared with other control design methods including sliding mode, and observer-based static state-feedback parameter-varying control. To reduce the computational complexity involved in the control design process, the number of LPV parameters in the developed quasi-LPV (qLPV) model is reduced by applying the principal component analysis technique. An LPV feedback/feedforward controller is then designed for the qLPV model with reduced number of scheduling parameters. The designed full-order controller is further simplified to a first-order transfer function with a parameter-varying gain and pole. Finally, simulation results using both a low-order model and a high-fidelity and high-order model of SCR reactions in GT-POWER interfaced with MATLAB/SIMULINK illustrate the high NO x conversion efficiency of the closed-loop SCR system using the proposed parameter-varying control law.

Advances in Parameter and Uncertainty Quantification Using Bayesian Hierarchical Techniques with a Spatially Referenced Watershed Model (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, R. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Schwarz, G. E.; Smith, R. A.

2013-12-01

Estimating water and material stores and fluxes in watershed studies is frequently complicated by uncertainties in quantifying hydrological and biogeochemical effects of factors such as land use, soils, and climate. Although these process-related effects are commonly measured and modeled in separate catchments, researchers are especially challenged by their complexity across catchments and diverse environmental settings, leading to a poor understanding of how model parameters and prediction uncertainties vary spatially. To address these concerns, we illustrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical modeling techniques with a dynamic version of the spatially referenced watershed model SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes). The dynamic SPARROW model is designed to predict streamflow and other water cycle components (e.g., evapotranspiration, soil and groundwater storage) for monthly varying hydrological regimes, using mechanistic functions, mass conservation constraints, and statistically estimated parameters. In this application, the model domain includes nearly 30,000 NHD (National Hydrologic Data) stream reaches and their associated catchments in the Susquehanna River Basin. We report the results of our comparisons of alternative models of varying complexity, including models with different explanatory variables as well as hierarchical models that account for spatial and temporal variability in model parameters and variance (error) components. The model errors are evaluated for changes with season and catchment size and correlations in time and space. The hierarchical models consist of a two-tiered structure in which climate forcing parameters are modeled as random variables, conditioned on watershed properties. Quantification of spatial and temporal variations in the hydrological parameters and model uncertainties in this approach leads to more efficient (lower variance) and less biased model predictions throughout the river network. Moreover, predictions of water-balance components are reported according to probabilistic metrics (e.g., percentiles, prediction intervals) that include both parameter and model uncertainties. These improvements in predictions of streamflow dynamics can inform the development of more accurate predictions of spatial and temporal variations in biogeochemical stores and fluxes (e.g., nutrients and carbon) in watersheds.

A Functional Varying-Coefficient Single-Index Model for Functional Response Data

PubMed Central

Li, Jialiang; Huang, Chao; Zhu, Hongtu

2016-01-01

Motivated by the analysis of imaging data, we propose a novel functional varying-coefficient single index model (FVCSIM) to carry out the regression analysis of functional response data on a set of covariates of interest. FVCSIM represents a new extension of varying-coefficient single index models for scalar responses collected from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. An efficient estimation procedure is developed to iteratively estimate varying coefficient functions, link functions, index parameter vectors, and the covariance function of individual functions. We systematically examine the asymptotic properties of all estimators including the weak convergence of the estimated varying coefficient functions, the asymptotic distribution of the estimated index parameter vectors, and the uniform convergence rate of the estimated covariance function and their spectrum. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure. We apply FVCSIM to investigating the development of white matter diffusivities along the corpus callosum skeleton obtained from Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. PMID:29200540

A Functional Varying-Coefficient Single-Index Model for Functional Response Data.

PubMed

Li, Jialiang; Huang, Chao; Zhu, Hongtu

2017-01-01

Motivated by the analysis of imaging data, we propose a novel functional varying-coefficient single index model (FVCSIM) to carry out the regression analysis of functional response data on a set of covariates of interest. FVCSIM represents a new extension of varying-coefficient single index models for scalar responses collected from cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. An efficient estimation procedure is developed to iteratively estimate varying coefficient functions, link functions, index parameter vectors, and the covariance function of individual functions. We systematically examine the asymptotic properties of all estimators including the weak convergence of the estimated varying coefficient functions, the asymptotic distribution of the estimated index parameter vectors, and the uniform convergence rate of the estimated covariance function and their spectrum. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed procedure. We apply FVCSIM to investigating the development of white matter diffusivities along the corpus callosum skeleton obtained from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study.

Control of Distributed Parameter Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-08-01

vari- ant of the general Lotka - Volterra model for interspecific competition. The variant described the emergence of one subpopulation from another as a...distribut ion unlimited. I&. ARSTRACT (MAUMUnw2O1 A unified arioroximation framework for Parameter estimation In general linear POE models has been completed...unified approximation framework for parameter estimation in general linear PDE models. This framework has provided the theoretical basis for a number of

The Limitations of Model-Based Experimental Design and Parameter Estimation in Sloppy Systems.

PubMed

White, Andrew; Tolman, Malachi; Thames, Howard D; Withers, Hubert Rodney; Mason, Kathy A; Transtrum, Mark K

2016-12-01

We explore the relationship among experimental design, parameter estimation, and systematic error in sloppy models. We show that the approximate nature of mathematical models poses challenges for experimental design in sloppy models. In many models of complex biological processes it is unknown what are the relevant physical mechanisms that must be included to explain system behaviors. As a consequence, models are often overly complex, with many practically unidentifiable parameters. Furthermore, which mechanisms are relevant/irrelevant vary among experiments. By selecting complementary experiments, experimental design may inadvertently make details that were ommitted from the model become relevant. When this occurs, the model will have a large systematic error and fail to give a good fit to the data. We use a simple hyper-model of model error to quantify a model's discrepancy and apply it to two models of complex biological processes (EGFR signaling and DNA repair) with optimally selected experiments. We find that although parameters may be accurately estimated, the discrepancy in the model renders it less predictive than it was in the sloppy regime where systematic error is small. We introduce the concept of a sloppy system-a sequence of models of increasing complexity that become sloppy in the limit of microscopic accuracy. We explore the limits of accurate parameter estimation in sloppy systems and argue that identifying underlying mechanisms controlling system behavior is better approached by considering a hierarchy of models of varying detail rather than focusing on parameter estimation in a single model.

Nonlocal continuum electrostatic theory predicts surprisingly small energetic penalties for charge burial in proteins.

PubMed

Bardhan, Jaydeep P

2011-09-14

We study the energetics of burying charges, ion pairs, and ionizable groups in a simple protein model using nonlocal continuum electrostatics. Our primary finding is that the nonlocal response leads to markedly reduced solvent screening, comparable to the use of application-specific protein dielectric constants. Employing the same parameters as used in other nonlocal studies, we find that for a sphere of radius 13.4 Å containing a single +1e charge, the nonlocal solvation free energy varies less than 18 kcal/mol as the charge moves from the surface to the center, whereas the difference in the local Poisson model is ∼35 kcal/mol. Because an ion pair (salt bridge) generates a comparatively more rapidly varying Coulomb potential, energetics for salt bridges are even more significantly reduced in the nonlocal model. By varying the central parameter in nonlocal theory, which is an effective length scale associated with correlations between solvent molecules, nonlocal-model energetics can be varied from the standard local results to essentially zero; however, the existence of the reduction in charge-burial penalties is quite robust to variations in the protein dielectric constant and the correlation length. Finally, as a simple exploratory test of the implications of nonlocal response, we calculate glutamate pK(a) shifts and find that using standard protein parameters (ε(protein) = 2-4), nonlocal results match local-model predictions with much higher dielectric constants. Nonlocality may, therefore, be one factor in resolving discrepancies between measured protein dielectric constants and the model parameters often used to match titration experiments. Nonlocal models may hold significant promise to deepen our understanding of macromolecular electrostatics without substantially increasing computational complexity. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

The Limitations of Model-Based Experimental Design and Parameter Estimation in Sloppy Systems

PubMed Central

Tolman, Malachi; Thames, Howard D.; Mason, Kathy A.

2016-01-01

We explore the relationship among experimental design, parameter estimation, and systematic error in sloppy models. We show that the approximate nature of mathematical models poses challenges for experimental design in sloppy models. In many models of complex biological processes it is unknown what are the relevant physical mechanisms that must be included to explain system behaviors. As a consequence, models are often overly complex, with many practically unidentifiable parameters. Furthermore, which mechanisms are relevant/irrelevant vary among experiments. By selecting complementary experiments, experimental design may inadvertently make details that were ommitted from the model become relevant. When this occurs, the model will have a large systematic error and fail to give a good fit to the data. We use a simple hyper-model of model error to quantify a model’s discrepancy and apply it to two models of complex biological processes (EGFR signaling and DNA repair) with optimally selected experiments. We find that although parameters may be accurately estimated, the discrepancy in the model renders it less predictive than it was in the sloppy regime where systematic error is small. We introduce the concept of a sloppy system–a sequence of models of increasing complexity that become sloppy in the limit of microscopic accuracy. We explore the limits of accurate parameter estimation in sloppy systems and argue that identifying underlying mechanisms controlling system behavior is better approached by considering a hierarchy of models of varying detail rather than focusing on parameter estimation in a single model. PMID:27923060

Stability of neutrino parameters and self-complementarity relation with varying SUSY breaking scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, K. Sashikanta; Roy, Subhankar; Singh, N. Nimai

2018-03-01

The scale at which supersymmetry (SUSY) breaks (ms) is still unknown. The present article, following a top-down approach, endeavors to study the effect of varying ms on the radiative stability of the observational parameters associated with the neutrino mixing. These parameters get additional contributions in the minimal supersymmetric model (MSSM). A variation in ms will influence the bounds for which the Standard Model (SM) and MSSM work and hence, will account for the different radiative contributions received from both sectors, respectively, while running the renormalization group equations (RGE). The present work establishes the invariance of the self complementarity relation among the three mixing angles, θ13+θ12≈θ23 against the radiative evolution. A similar result concerning the mass ratio, m2:m1 is also found to be valid. In addition to varying ms, the work incorporates a range of different seesaw (SS) scales and tries to see how the latter affects the parameters.

Parameterization of water vapor using high-resolution GPS data and empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ningombam, Shantikumar S.; Jade, Sridevi; Shrungeshwara, T. S.

2018-03-01

The present work evaluates eleven existing empirical models to estimate Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) over a high-altitude (4500 m amsl), cold-desert environment. These models are tested extensively and used globally to estimate PWV for low altitude sites (below 1000 m amsl). The moist parameters used in the model are: water vapor scale height (Hc), dew point temperature (Td) and water vapor pressure (Es 0). These moist parameters are derived from surface air temperature and relative humidity measured at high temporal resolution from automated weather station. The performance of these models are examined statistically with observed high-resolution GPS (GPSPWV) data over the region (2005-2012). The correlation coefficient (R) between the observed GPSPWV and Model PWV is 0.98 at daily data and varies diurnally from 0.93 to 0.97. Parameterization of moisture parameters were studied in-depth (i.e., 2 h to monthly time scales) using GPSPWV , Td , and Es 0 . The slope of the linear relationships between GPSPWV and Td varies from 0.073°C-1 to 0.106°C-1 (R: 0.83 to 0.97) while GPSPWV and Es 0 varied from 1.688 to 2.209 (R: 0.95 to 0.99) at daily, monthly and diurnal time scales. In addition, the moist parameters for the cold desert, high-altitude environment are examined in-depth at various time scales during 2005-2012.

Toward On-line Parameter Estimation of Concentric Tube Robots Using a Mechanics-based Kinematic Model

PubMed Central

Jang, Cheongjae; Ha, Junhyoung; Dupont, Pierre E.; Park, Frank Chongwoo

2017-01-01

Although existing mechanics-based models of concentric tube robots have been experimentally demonstrated to approximate the actual kinematics, determining accurate estimates of model parameters remains difficult due to the complex relationship between the parameters and available measurements. Further, because the mechanics-based models neglect some phenomena like friction, nonlinear elasticity, and cross section deformation, it is also not clear if model error is due to model simplification or to parameter estimation errors. The parameters of the superelastic materials used in these robots can be slowly time-varying, necessitating periodic re-estimation. This paper proposes a method for estimating the mechanics-based model parameters using an extended Kalman filter as a step toward on-line parameter estimation. Our methodology is validated through both simulation and experiments. PMID:28717554

Stochastic and Perturbed Parameter Representations of Model Uncertainty in Convection Parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, H. M.; Moroz, I.; Palmer, T.

2015-12-01

It is now acknowledged that representing model uncertainty in atmospheric simulators is essential for the production of reliable probabilistic ensemble forecasts, and a number of different techniques have been proposed for this purpose. Stochastic convection parameterization schemes use random numbers to represent the difference between a deterministic parameterization scheme and the true atmosphere, accounting for the unresolved sub grid-scale variability associated with convective clouds. An alternative approach varies the values of poorly constrained physical parameters in the model to represent the uncertainty in these parameters. This study presents new perturbed parameter schemes for use in the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) convection scheme. Two types of scheme are developed and implemented. Both schemes represent the joint uncertainty in four of the parameters in the convection parametrisation scheme, which was estimated using the Ensemble Prediction and Parameter Estimation System (EPPES). The first scheme developed is a fixed perturbed parameter scheme, where the values of uncertain parameters are changed between ensemble members, but held constant over the duration of the forecast. The second is a stochastically varying perturbed parameter scheme. The performance of these schemes was compared to the ECMWF operational stochastic scheme, Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies (SPPT), and to a model which does not represent uncertainty in convection. The skill of probabilistic forecasts made using the different models was evaluated. While the perturbed parameter schemes improve on the stochastic parametrisation in some regards, the SPPT scheme outperforms the perturbed parameter approaches when considering forecast variables that are particularly sensitive to convection. Overall, SPPT schemes are the most skilful representations of model uncertainty due to convection parametrisation. Reference: H. M. Christensen, I. M. Moroz, and T. N. Palmer, 2015: Stochastic and Perturbed Parameter Representations of Model Uncertainty in Convection Parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 2525-2544.

LPV Modeling and Control for Active Flutter Suppression of a Smart Airfoil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Hajjar, Ali M. H.; Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Zhu, Guoming

2018-01-01

In this paper, a novel technique of linear parameter varying (LPV) modeling and control of a smart airfoil for active flutter suppression is proposed, where the smart airfoil has a groove along its chord and contains a moving mass that is used to control the airfoil pitching and plunging motions. The new LPV modeling technique is proposed that uses mass position as a scheduling parameter to describe the physical constraint of the moving mass, in addition the hard constraint at the boundaries is realized by proper selection of the parameter varying function. Therefore, the position of the moving mass and the free stream airspeed are considered the scheduling parameters in the study. A state-feedback based LPV gain-scheduling controller with guaranteed H infinity performance is presented by utilizing the dynamics of the moving mass as scheduling parameter at a given airspeed. The numerical simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed LPV control architecture by significantly improving the performance while reducing the control effort.

Aspen succession in the Intermountain West: A deterministic model

Treesearch

Dale L. Bartos; Frederick R. Ward; George S. Innis

1983-01-01

A deterministic model of succession in aspen forests was developed using existing data and intuition. The degree of uncertainty, which was determined by allowing the parameter values to vary at random within limits, was larger than desired. This report presents results of an analysis of model sensitivity to changes in parameter values. These results have indicated...

State Space Modeling of Time-Varying Contemporaneous and Lagged Relations in Connectivity Maps

PubMed Central

Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Beltz, Adriene M.; Gates, Kathleen M.; Wilson, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. PMID:26546863

On the Influence of Material Parameters in a Complex Material Model for Powder Compaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staf, Hjalmar; Lindskog, Per; Andersson, Daniel C.; Larsson, Per-Lennart

2016-10-01

Parameters in a complex material model for powder compaction, based on a continuum mechanics approach, are evaluated using real insert geometries. The parameter sensitivity with respect to density and stress after compaction, pertinent to a wide range of geometries, is studied in order to investigate completeness and limitations of the material model. Finite element simulations with varied material parameters are used to build surrogate models for the sensitivity study. The conclusion from this analysis is that a simplification of the material model is relevant, especially for simple insert geometries. Parameters linked to anisotropy and the plastic strain evolution angle have a small impact on the final result.

Methods for the identification of material parameters in distributed models for flexible structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Crowley, J. M.; Rosen, I. G.

1986-01-01

Theoretical and numerical results are presented for inverse problems involving estimation of spatially varying parameters such as stiffness and damping in distributed models for elastic structures such as Euler-Bernoulli beams. An outline of algorithms used and a summary of computational experiences are presented.

Estimating effective soil properties of heterogeneous areas for modeling infiltration and redistribution

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Field scale water infiltration and soil-water and solute transport models require spatially-averaged “effective” soil hydraulic parameters to represent the average flux and storage. The values of these effective parameters vary for different conditions, processes, and component soils in a field. For...

Finite-element simulation of ground-water flow in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain, Nevada-California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Czarnecki, J.B.; Waddell, R.K.

1984-01-01

A finite-element model of the groundwater flow system in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain at the Nevada Test Site was developed using parameter estimation techniques. The model simulated steady-state ground-water flow occurring in tuffaceous, volcanic , and carbonate rocks, and alluvial aquifers. Hydraulic gradients in the modeled area range from 0.00001 for carbonate aquifers to 0.19 for barriers in tuffaceous rocks. Three model parameters were used in estimating transmissivity in six zones. Simulated hydraulic-head values range from about 1,200 m near Timber Mountain to about 300 m near Furnace Creek Ranch. Model residuals for simulated versus measured hydraulic heads range from -28.6 to 21.4 m; most are less than +/-7 m, indicating an acceptable representation of the hydrologic system by the model. Sensitivity analyses of the model 's flux boundary condition variables were performed to assess the effect of varying boundary fluxes on the calculation of estimated model transmissivities. Varying the flux variables representing discharge at Franklin Lake and Furnace Creek Ranch has greater effect than varying other flux variables. (Author 's abstract)

A Theoretical Approach to Analyze the Parametric Influence on Spatial Patterns of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Populations.

PubMed

Garcia, A G; Godoy, W A C

2017-06-01

Studies of the influence of biological parameters on the spatial distribution of lepidopteran insects can provide useful information for managing agricultural pests, since the larvae of many species cause serious impacts on crops. Computational models to simulate the spatial dynamics of insect populations are increasingly used, because of their efficiency in representing insect movement. In this study, we used a cellular automata model to explore different patterns of population distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), when the values of two biological parameters that are able to influence the spatial pattern (larval viability and adult longevity) are varied. We mapped the spatial patterns observed as the parameters varied. Additionally, by using population data for S. frugiperda obtained in different hosts under laboratory conditions, we were able to describe the expected spatial patterns occurring in corn, cotton, millet, and soybean crops based on the parameters varied. The results are discussed from the perspective of insect ecology and pest management. We concluded that computational approaches can be important tools to study the relationship between the biological parameters and spatial distributions of lepidopteran insect pests.

Bayesian estimation of dynamic matching function for U-V analysis in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyo, Koki; Noda, Hideo; Kitagawa, Genshiro

2012-05-01

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for analyzing unemployment dynamics. We derive a Beveridge curve for unemployment and vacancy (U-V) analysis from a Bayesian model based on a labor market matching function. In our framework, the efficiency of matching and the elasticities of new hiring with respect to unemployment and vacancy are regarded as time varying parameters. To construct a flexible model and obtain reasonable estimates in an underdetermined estimation problem, we treat the time varying parameters as random variables and introduce smoothness priors. The model is then described in a state space representation, enabling the parameter estimation to be carried out using Kalman filter and fixed interval smoothing. In such a representation, dynamic features of the cyclic unemployment rate and the structural-frictional unemployment rate can be accurately captured.

Revisiting crash spatial heterogeneity: A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients approach.

PubMed

Xu, Pengpeng; Huang, Helai; Dong, Ni; Wong, S C

2017-01-01

This study was performed to investigate the spatially varying relationships between crash frequency and related risk factors. A Bayesian spatially varying coefficients model was elaborately introduced as a methodological alternative to simultaneously account for the unstructured and spatially structured heterogeneity of the regression coefficients in predicting crash frequencies. The proposed method was appealing in that the parameters were modeled via a conditional autoregressive prior distribution, which involved a single set of random effects and a spatial correlation parameter with extreme values corresponding to pure unstructured or pure spatially correlated random effects. A case study using a three-year crash dataset from the Hillsborough County, Florida, was conducted to illustrate the proposed model. Empirical analysis confirmed the presence of both unstructured and spatially correlated variations in the effects of contributory factors on severe crash occurrences. The findings also suggested that ignoring spatially structured heterogeneity may result in biased parameter estimates and incorrect inferences, while assuming the regression coefficients to be spatially clustered only is probably subject to the issue of over-smoothness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LPV Modeling of a Flexible Wing Aircraft Using Modal Alignment and Adaptive Gridding Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al-Jiboory, Ali Khudhair; Zhu, Guoming; Swei, Sean Shan-Min; Su, Weihua; Nguyen, Nhan T.

2017-01-01

One of the earliest approaches in gain-scheduling control is the gridding based approach, in which a set of local linear time-invariant models are obtained at various gridded points corresponding to the varying parameters within the flight envelop. In order to ensure smooth and effective Linear Parameter-Varying control, aligning all the flexible modes within each local model and maintaining small number of representative local models over the gridded parameter space are crucial. In addition, since the flexible structural models tend to have large dimensions, a tractable model reduction process is necessary. In this paper, the notion of s-shifted H2- and H Infinity-norm are introduced and used as a metric to measure the model mismatch. A new modal alignment algorithm is developed which utilizes the defined metric for aligning all the local models over the entire gridded parameter space. Furthermore, an Adaptive Grid Step Size Determination algorithm is developed to minimize the number of local models required to represent the gridded parameter space. For model reduction, we propose to utilize the concept of Composite Modal Cost Analysis, through which the collective contribution of each flexible mode is computed and ranked. Therefore, a reduced-order model is constructed by retaining only those modes with significant contribution. The NASA Generic Transport Model operating at various flight speeds is studied for verification purpose, and the analysis and simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling approach.

Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

2016-01-01

The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

Scaling of Precipitation Extremes Modelled by Generalized Pareto Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajulapati, C. R.; Mujumdar, P. P.

2017-12-01

Precipitation extremes are often modelled with data from annual maximum series or peaks over threshold series. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is commonly used to fit the peaks over threshold series. Scaling of precipitation extremes from larger time scales to smaller time scales when the extremes are modelled with the GPD is burdened with difficulties arising from varying thresholds for different durations. In this study, the scale invariance theory is used to develop a disaggregation model for precipitation extremes exceeding specified thresholds. A scaling relationship is developed for a range of thresholds obtained from a set of quantiles of non-zero precipitation of different durations. The GPD parameters and exceedance rate parameters are modelled by the Bayesian approach and the uncertainty in scaling exponent is quantified. A quantile based modification in the scaling relationship is proposed for obtaining the varying thresholds and exceedance rate parameters for shorter durations. The disaggregation model is applied to precipitation datasets of Berlin City, Germany and Bangalore City, India. From both the applications, it is observed that the uncertainty in the scaling exponent has a considerable effect on uncertainty in scaled parameters and return levels of shorter durations.

Hydrodynamic Aspects of Particle Clogging in Porous Media

PubMed Central

MAYS, DAVID C.; HUNT, JAMES R.

2010-01-01

Data from 6 filtration studies, representing 43 experiments, are analyzed with a simplified version of the single-parameter O’Melia and Ali clogging model. The model parameter displays a systematic dependence on fluid velocity, which was an independent variable in each study. A cake filtration model also explains the data from one filtration study by varying a single, velocity-dependent parameter, highlighting that clogging models, because they are empirical, are not unique. Limited experimental data indicate exponential depth dependence of particle accumulation, whose impact on clogging is quantified with an extended O’Melia and Ali model. The resulting two-parameter model successfully describes the increased clogging that is always observed in the top segment of a filter. However, even after accounting for particle penetration, the two-parameter model suggests that a velocity-dependent parameter representing deposit morphology must also be included to explain the data. Most of the experimental data are described by the single-parameter O’Melia and Ali model, and the model parameter is correlated to the collector Peclet number. PMID:15707058

Penalized Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of Time-Varying Parameters in Ordinary Differential Equations

PubMed Central

Cao, Jiguo; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Wu, Hulin

2012-01-01

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biomedical research and other scientific areas to model complex dynamic systems. It is an important statistical problem to estimate parameters in ODEs from noisy observations. In this article we propose a method for estimating the time-varying coefficients in an ODE. Our method is a variation of the nonlinear least squares where penalized splines are used to model the functional parameters and the ODE solutions are approximated also using splines. We resort to the implicit function theorem to deal with the nonlinear least squares objective function that is only defined implicitly. The proposed penalized nonlinear least squares method is applied to estimate a HIV dynamic model from a real dataset. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method can provide much more accurate estimates of functional parameters than the existing two-step local polynomial method which relies on estimation of the derivatives of the state function. Supplemental materials for the article are available online. PMID:23155351

Robust shrinking ellipsoid model predictive control for linear parameter varying system

PubMed Central

Yan, Yan

2017-01-01

In this paper, a new off-line model predictive control strategy is presented for a kind of linear parameter varying system with polytopic uncertainty. A nest of shrinking ellipsoids is constructed by solving linear matrix inequality. By splitting the objective function into two parts, the proposed strategy moves most computations off-line. The on-line computation is only calculating the current control to assure the system shrinking into the smaller ellipsoid. With the proposed formulation, the stability of the closed system is proved, followed with two numerical examples to demonstrate the proposed method’s effectiveness in the end. PMID:28575028

Towards adjoint-based inversion for rheological parameters in nonlinear viscous mantle flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worthen, Jennifer; Stadler, Georg; Petra, Noemi; Gurnis, Michael; Ghattas, Omar

2014-09-01

We address the problem of inferring mantle rheological parameter fields from surface velocity observations and instantaneous nonlinear mantle flow models. We formulate this inverse problem as an infinite-dimensional nonlinear least squares optimization problem governed by nonlinear Stokes equations. We provide expressions for the gradient of the cost functional of this optimization problem with respect to two spatially-varying rheological parameter fields: the viscosity prefactor and the exponent of the second invariant of the strain rate tensor. Adjoint (linearized) Stokes equations, which are characterized by a 4th order anisotropic viscosity tensor, facilitates efficient computation of the gradient. A quasi-Newton method for the solution of this optimization problem is presented, which requires the repeated solution of both nonlinear forward Stokes and linearized adjoint Stokes equations. For the solution of the nonlinear Stokes equations, we find that Newton’s method is significantly more efficient than a Picard fixed point method. Spectral analysis of the inverse operator given by the Hessian of the optimization problem reveals that the numerical eigenvalues collapse rapidly to zero, suggesting a high degree of ill-posedness of the inverse problem. To overcome this ill-posedness, we employ Tikhonov regularization (favoring smooth parameter fields) or total variation (TV) regularization (favoring piecewise-smooth parameter fields). Solution of two- and three-dimensional finite element-based model inverse problems show that a constant parameter in the constitutive law can be recovered well from surface velocity observations. Inverting for a spatially-varying parameter field leads to its reasonable recovery, in particular close to the surface. When inferring two spatially varying parameter fields, only an effective viscosity field and the total viscous dissipation are recoverable. Finally, a model of a subducting plate shows that a localized weak zone at the plate boundary can be partially recovered, especially with TV regularization.

On-Line Identification of Simulation Examples for Forgetting Methods to Track Time Varying Parameters Using the Alternative Covariance Matrix in Matlab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachálek, Ján

2011-12-01

The paper compares the abilities of forgetting methods to track time varying parameters of two different simulated models with different types of excitation. The observed parameters in the simulations are the integral sum of the Euclidean norm, deviation of the parameter estimates from their true values and a selected band prediction error count. As supplementary information, we observe the eigenvalues of the covariance matrix. In the paper we used a modified method of Regularized Exponential Forgetting with Alternative Covariance Matrix (REFACM) along with Directional Forgetting (DF) and three standard regularized methods.

Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment.

PubMed

Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Akçakaya, H Resit

2017-02-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population-level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input-parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input-parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Artificial neural network modeling of DDGS flowability with varying process and storage parameters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Neural Network (NN) modeling techniques were used to predict flowability behavior in distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) prepared with varying CDS (10, 15, and 20%, wb), drying temperature (100, 200, and 300°C), cooling temperature (-12, 0, and 35°C) and cooling time (0 and 1 month) levels....

Ensemble Kalman filter inference of spatially-varying Manning's n coefficients in the coastal ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siripatana, Adil; Mayo, Talea; Knio, Omar; Dawson, Clint; Maître, Olivier Le; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2018-07-01

Ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filtering is an established framework for large scale state estimation problems. EnKFs can also be used for state-parameter estimation, using the so-called "Joint-EnKF" approach. The idea is simply to augment the state vector with the parameters to be estimated and assign invariant dynamics for the time evolution of the parameters. In this contribution, we investigate the efficiency of the Joint-EnKF for estimating spatially-varying Manning's n coefficients used to define the bottom roughness in the Shallow Water Equations (SWEs) of a coastal ocean model. Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are conducted using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model, which solves a modified form of the Shallow Water Equations. A deterministic EnKF, the Singular Evolutive Interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, is used to estimate a vector of Manning's n coefficients defined at the model nodal points by assimilating synthetic water elevation data. It is found that with reasonable ensemble size (O (10)) , the filter's estimate converges to the reference Manning's field. To enhance performance, we have further reduced the dimension of the parameter search space through a Karhunen-Loéve (KL) expansion. We have also iterated on the filter update step to better account for the nonlinearity of the parameter estimation problem. We study the sensitivity of the system to the ensemble size, localization scale, dimension of retained KL modes, and number of iterations. The performance of the proposed framework in term of estimation accuracy suggests that a well-tuned Joint-EnKF provides a promising robust approach to infer spatially varying seabed roughness parameters in the context of coastal ocean modeling.

Effects of reaction-kinetic parameters on modeling reaction pathways in GaN MOVPE growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hong; Zuo, Ran; Zhang, Guoyi

2017-11-01

In the modeling of the reaction-transport process in GaN MOVPE growth, the selections of kinetic parameters (activation energy Ea and pre-exponential factor A) for gas reactions are quite uncertain, which cause uncertainties in both gas reaction path and growth rate. In this study, numerical modeling of the reaction-transport process for GaN MOVPE growth in a vertical rotating disk reactor is conducted with varying kinetic parameters for main reaction paths. By comparisons of the molar concentrations of major Ga-containing species and the growth rates, the effects of kinetic parameters on gas reaction paths are determined. The results show that, depending on the values of the kinetic parameters, the gas reaction path may be dominated either by adduct/amide formation path, or by TMG pyrolysis path, or by both. Although the reaction path varies with different kinetic parameters, the predicted growth rates change only slightly because the total transport rate of Ga-containing species to the substrate changes slightly with reaction paths. This explains why previous authors using different chemical models predicted growth rates close to the experiment values. By varying the pre-exponential factor for the amide trimerization, it is found that the more trimers are formed, the lower the growth rates are than the experimental value, which indicates that trimers are poor growth precursors, because of thermal diffusion effect caused by high temperature gradient. The effective order for the contribution of major species to growth rate is found as: pyrolysis species > amides > trimers. The study also shows that radical reactions have little effect on gas reaction path because of the generation and depletion of H radicals in the chain reactions when NH2 is considered as the end species.

Conditional parametric models for storm sewer runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonsdottir, H.; Nielsen, H. Aa; Madsen, H.; Eliasson, J.; Palsson, O. P.; Nielsen, M. K.

2007-05-01

The method of conditional parametric modeling is introduced for flow prediction in a sewage system. It is a well-known fact that in hydrological modeling the response (runoff) to input (precipitation) varies depending on soil moisture and several other factors. Consequently, nonlinear input-output models are needed. The model formulation described in this paper is similar to the traditional linear models like final impulse response (FIR) and autoregressive exogenous (ARX) except that the parameters vary as a function of some external variables. The parameter variation is modeled by local lines, using kernels for local linear regression. As such, the method might be referred to as a nearest neighbor method. The results achieved in this study were compared to results from the conventional linear methods, FIR and ARX. The increase in the coefficient of determination is substantial. Furthermore, the new approach conserves the mass balance better. Hence this new approach looks promising for various hydrological models and analysis.

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

PubMed

Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-07-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health.

Estimation of dynamic rotor loads for the rotor systems research aircraft: Methodology development and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duval, R. W.; Bahrami, M.

1985-01-01

The Rotor Systems Research Aircraft uses load cells to isolate the rotor/transmission systm from the fuselage. A mathematical model relating applied rotor loads and inertial loads of the rotor/transmission system to the load cell response is required to allow the load cells to be used to estimate rotor loads from flight data. Such a model is derived analytically by applying a force and moment balance to the isolated rotor/transmission system. The model is tested by comparing its estimated values of applied rotor loads with measured values obtained from a ground based shake test. Discrepancies in the comparison are used to isolate sources of unmodeled external loads. Once the structure of the mathematical model has been validated by comparison with experimental data, the parameters must be identified. Since the parameters may vary with flight condition it is desirable to identify the parameters directly from the flight data. A Maximum Likelihood identification algorithm is derived for this purpose and tested using a computer simulation of load cell data. The identification is found to converge within 10 samples. The rapid convergence facilitates tracking of time varying parameters of the load cell model in flight.

State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M; Beltz, Adriene M; Gates, Kathleen M; Wilson, Stephen J

2016-01-15

Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modelling tourists arrival using time varying parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suciptawati, P.; Sukarsa, K. G.; Kencana, Eka N.

2017-06-01

The importance of tourism and its related sectors to support economic development and poverty reduction in many countries increase researchers’ attentions to study and model tourists’ arrival. This work is aimed to demonstrate time varying parameter (TVP) technique to model the arrival of Korean’s tourists to Bali. The number of Korean tourists whom visiting Bali for period January 2010 to December 2015 were used to model the number of Korean’s tourists to Bali (KOR) as dependent variable. The predictors are the exchange rate of Won to IDR (WON), the inflation rate in Korea (INFKR), and the inflation rate in Indonesia (INFID). Observing tourists visit to Bali tend to fluctuate by their nationality, then the model was built by applying TVP and its parameters were approximated using Kalman Filter algorithm. The results showed all of predictor variables (WON, INFKR, INFID) significantly affect KOR. For in-sample and out-of-sample forecast with ARIMA’s forecasted values for the predictors, TVP model gave mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as much as 11.24 percent and 12.86 percent, respectively.

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Brenner, Martin J.; Ouellette, Jeffrey A.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

Performance Optimizing Adaptive Control with Time-Varying Reference Model Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Hashemi, Kelley E.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a new adaptive control approach that involves a performance optimization objective. The control synthesis involves the design of a performance optimizing adaptive controller from a subset of control inputs. The resulting effect of the performance optimizing adaptive controller is to modify the initial reference model into a time-varying reference model which satisfies the performance optimization requirement obtained from an optimal control problem. The time-varying reference model modification is accomplished by the real-time solutions of the time-varying Riccati and Sylvester equations coupled with the least-squares parameter estimation of the sensitivities of the performance metric. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application of maneuver load alleviation control for a flexible aircraft.

A Deterministic Interfacial Cyclic Oxidation Spalling Model. Part 2; Algebraic Approximation, Descriptive Parameters, and Normalized Universal Curve

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smialek, James L.

2002-01-01

A cyclic oxidation interfacial spalling model has been developed in Part 1. The governing equations have been simplified here by substituting a new algebraic expression for the series (Good-Smialek approximation). This produced a direct relationship between cyclic oxidation weight change and model input parameters. It also allowed for the mathematical derivation of various descriptive parameters as a function of the inputs. It is shown that the maximum in weight change varies directly with the parabolic rate constant and cycle duration and inversely with the spall fraction, all to the 1/2 power. The number of cycles to reach maximum and zero weight change vary inversely with the spall fraction, and the ratio of these cycles is exactly 1:3 for most oxides. By suitably normalizing the weight change and cycle number, it is shown that all cyclic oxidation weight change model curves can be represented by one universal expression for a given oxide scale.

Marginal Maximum A Posteriori Item Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Thompson, Vanessa M.

2011-01-01

A marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) procedure was implemented to estimate item parameters in the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). Estimates from the MMAP method were compared with those derived from marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures in a recovery simulation that varied sample size,…

Comparative Sensitivity Analysis of Muscle Activation Dynamics

PubMed Central

Günther, Michael; Götz, Thomas

2015-01-01

We mathematically compared two models of mammalian striated muscle activation dynamics proposed by Hatze and Zajac. Both models are representative for a broad variety of biomechanical models formulated as ordinary differential equations (ODEs). These models incorporate parameters that directly represent known physiological properties. Other parameters have been introduced to reproduce empirical observations. We used sensitivity analysis to investigate the influence of model parameters on the ODE solutions. In addition, we expanded an existing approach to treating initial conditions as parameters and to calculating second-order sensitivities. Furthermore, we used a global sensitivity analysis approach to include finite ranges of parameter values. Hence, a theoretician striving for model reduction could use the method for identifying particularly low sensitivities to detect superfluous parameters. An experimenter could use it for identifying particularly high sensitivities to improve parameter estimation. Hatze's nonlinear model incorporates some parameters to which activation dynamics is clearly more sensitive than to any parameter in Zajac's linear model. Other than Zajac's model, Hatze's model can, however, reproduce measured shifts in optimal muscle length with varied muscle activity. Accordingly we extracted a specific parameter set for Hatze's model that combines best with a particular muscle force-length relation. PMID:26417379

Modelling the evaporation of nanoparticle suspensions from heterogeneous surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalmers, C.; Smith, R.; Archer, A. J.

2017-07-01

We present a Monte Carlo (MC) grid-based model for the drying of drops of a nanoparticle suspension upon a heterogeneous surface. The model consists of a generalised lattice-gas in which the interaction parameters in the Hamiltonian can be varied to model different properties of the materials involved. We show how to correctly choose the interactions, to minimise the effects of the underlying grid so that hemispherical droplets form. We also include the effects of surface roughness to examine the effects of contact-line pinning on the dynamics. When there is a ‘lid’ above the system, which prevents evaporation, equilibrium drops form on the surface, which we use to determine the contact angle and how it varies as the parameters of the model are changed. This enables us to relate the interaction parameters to the materials used in applications. The model has also been applied to drying on heterogeneous surfaces, in particular to the case where the suspension is deposited on a surface consisting of a pair of hydrophilic conducting metal surfaces that are either side of a band of hydrophobic insulating polymer. This situation occurs when using inkjet printing to manufacture electrical connections between the metallic parts of the surface. The process is not always without problems, since the liquid can dewet from the hydrophobic part of the surface, breaking the bridge before the drying process is complete. The MC model reproduces the observed dewetting, allowing the parameters to be varied so that the conditions for the best connection can be established. We show that if the hydrophobic portion of the surface is located at a step below the height of the neighbouring metal, the chance of dewetting of the liquid during the drying process is significantly reduced.

Pattern formation in individual-based systems with time-varying parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashcroft, Peter; Galla, Tobias

2013-12-01

We study the patterns generated in finite-time sweeps across symmetry-breaking bifurcations in individual-based models. Similar to the well-known Kibble-Zurek scenario of defect formation, large-scale patterns are generated when model parameters are varied slowly, whereas fast sweeps produce a large number of small domains. The symmetry breaking is triggered by intrinsic noise, originating from the discrete dynamics at the microlevel. Based on a linear-noise approximation, we calculate the characteristic length scale of these patterns. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach in a simple model of opinion dynamics, a model in evolutionary game theory with a time-dependent fitness structure, and a model of cell differentiation. Our theoretical estimates are confirmed in simulations. In further numerical work, we observe a similar phenomenon when the symmetry-breaking bifurcation is triggered by population growth.

Deriving adaptive operating rules of hydropower reservoirs using time-varying parameters generated by the EnKF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Maoyuan; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Shi, Liangsheng; Deng, Chao; Ming, Bo

2017-08-01

Operating rules have been used widely to decide reservoir operations because of their capacity for coping with uncertain inflow. However, stationary operating rules lack adaptability; thus, under changing environmental conditions, they cause inefficient reservoir operation. This paper derives adaptive operating rules based on time-varying parameters generated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). A deterministic optimization model is established to obtain optimal water releases, which are further taken as observations of the reservoir simulation model. The EnKF is formulated to update the operating rules sequentially, providing a series of time-varying parameters. To identify the index that dominates the variations of the operating rules, three hydrologic factors are selected: the reservoir inflow, ratio of future inflow to current available water, and available water. Finally, adaptive operating rules are derived by fitting the time-varying parameters with the identified dominant hydrologic factor. China's Three Gorges Reservoir was selected as a case study. Results show that (1) the EnKF has the capability of capturing the variations of the operating rules, (2) reservoir inflow is the factor that dominates the variations of the operating rules, and (3) the derived adaptive operating rules are effective in improving hydropower benefits compared with stationary operating rules. The insightful findings of this study could be used to help adapt reservoir operations to mitigate the effects of changing environmental conditions.

Time-varying volatility in Malaysian stock exchange: An empirical study using multiple-volatility-shift fractionally integrated model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheong, Chin Wen

2008-02-01

This article investigated the influences of structural breaks on the fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model in the Malaysian stock markets which included the Kuala Lumpur composite index and four major sectoral indices. A fractionally integrated time-varying volatility model combined with sudden changes is developed to study the possibility of structural change in the empirical data sets. Our empirical results showed substantial reduction in fractional differencing parameters after the inclusion of structural change during the Asian financial and currency crises. Moreover, the fractionally integrated model with sudden change in volatility performed better in the estimation and specification evaluations.

Computational methods for estimation of parameters in hyperbolic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Banks, H. T.; Ito, K.; Murphy, K. A.

1983-01-01

Approximation techniques for estimating spatially varying coefficients and unknown boundary parameters in second order hyperbolic systems are discussed. Methods for state approximation (cubic splines, tau-Legendre) and approximation of function space parameters (interpolatory splines) are outlined and numerical findings for use of the resulting schemes in model "one dimensional seismic inversion' problems are summarized.

Analysis of Family Structures Reveals Robustness or Sensitivity of Bursting Activity to Parameter Variations in a Half-Center Oscillator (HCO) Model.

PubMed

Doloc-Mihu, Anca; Calabrese, Ronald L

2016-01-01

The underlying mechanisms that support robustness in neuronal networks are as yet unknown. However, recent studies provide evidence that neuronal networks are robust to natural variations, modulation, and environmental perturbations of parameters, such as maximal conductances of intrinsic membrane and synaptic currents. Here we sought a method for assessing robustness, which might easily be applied to large brute-force databases of model instances. Starting with groups of instances with appropriate activity (e.g., tonic spiking), our method classifies instances into much smaller subgroups, called families, in which all members vary only by the one parameter that defines the family. By analyzing the structures of families, we developed measures of robustness for activity type. Then, we applied these measures to our previously developed model database, HCO-db, of a two-neuron half-center oscillator (HCO), a neuronal microcircuit from the leech heartbeat central pattern generator where the appropriate activity type is alternating bursting. In HCO-db, the maximal conductances of five intrinsic and two synaptic currents were varied over eight values (leak reversal potential also varied, five values). We focused on how variations of particular conductance parameters maintain normal alternating bursting activity while still allowing for functional modulation of period and spike frequency. We explored the trade-off between robustness of activity type and desirable change in activity characteristics when intrinsic conductances are altered and identified the hyperpolarization-activated (h) current as an ideal target for modulation. We also identified ensembles of model instances that closely approximate physiological activity and can be used in future modeling studies.

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.

1998-01-01

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Combined meso-scale modeling and experimental investigation of the effect of mechanical damage on the transport properties of cementitious composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghavan, Balaji; Niknezhad, Davood; Bernard, Fabrice; Kamali-Bernard, Siham

2016-09-01

The transport properties of cementitious composites such as concrete are important indicators of their durability, and are known to be heavily influenced by mechanical loading. In the current work, we use meso-scale hygro-mechanical modeling with a morphological 3D two phase mortar-aggregate model, in conjunction with experimentally obtained properties, to investigate the coupling between mechanical loading and damage and the permeability of the composite. The increase in permeability of a cylindrical test specimen at 28% aggregate fraction during a uniaxial displacement-controlled compression test at 85% of the peak load was measured using a gas permeameter. The mortar's mechanical behavior is assumed to follow the well-known compression damaged plasticity (CDP) model with isotropic damage, at varying thresholds, and obtained from different envelope curves. The damaged intrinsic permeability of the mortar evolves according to a logarithmic matching law with progressive loading. We fit the matching law parameters to the experimental result for the test specimen by inverse identification using our meso-scale model. We then subject a series of virtual composite specimens to quasi-static uniaxial compressive loading with varying boundary conditions to obtain the simulated damage and strain evolutions, and use the damage data and the previously identified parameters to determine the evolution of the macroscopic permeability tensor for the specimens, using a network model. We conduct a full parameter study by varying aggregate volume fraction, granulometric distribution, loading/boundary conditions and "matching law" parameters, as well as for different strain-damage thresholds and uniaxial loading envelope curves. Based on this study, we propose Avrami equation-based upper and lower bounds for the evolution of the damaged permeability of the composite.

In-medium effects via nuclear stopping in asymmetric colliding nuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaur, Mandeep

2016-05-06

The nuclear stopping is studied using isospin-dependent quantum molecular dynamics (IQMD) model in asymmetric colliding nuclei by varying mass asymmetry. The calculations have been done at incident energies varying between 50 and 400 MeV/nucleon for different impact parameters. We investigate the relative role of constant scaled and density-dependent scaled cross-sections. Our study reveals that nuclear stopping depends on the mass asymmetry, incident energy and impact parameter, however, it is independent of the way of scaling the cross-section.

Robust guaranteed-cost adaptive quantum phase estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Shibdas; Berry, Dominic W.; Petersen, Ian R.; Huntington, Elanor H.

2017-05-01

Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.

Genetic Algorithm-Based Model Order Reduction of Aeroservoelastic Systems with Consistant States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter M.; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a model order reduction framework to construct linear parameter-varying reduced-order models of flexible aircraft for aeroservoelasticity analysis and control synthesis in broad two-dimensional flight parameter space. Genetic algorithms are used to automatically determine physical states for reduction and to generate reduced-order models at grid points within parameter space while minimizing the trial-and-error process. In addition, balanced truncation for unstable systems is used in conjunction with the congruence transformation technique to achieve locally optimal realization and weak fulfillment of state consistency across the entire parameter space. Therefore, aeroservoelasticity reduced-order models at any flight condition can be obtained simply through model interpolation. The methodology is applied to the pitch-plant model of the X-56A Multi-Use Technology Testbed currently being tested at NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. The present studies indicate that the reduced-order model with more than 12× reduction in the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels. The genetic-algorithm-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The interpolated aeroservoelasticity reduced order models exhibit smooth pole transition and continuously varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions, which verifies consistent state representation obtained by congruence transformation. The present model order reduction framework can be used by control engineers for robust aeroservoelasticity controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

On Diffusive Climatological Models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffel, D. H.; Drazin, P. G.

1981-11-01

A simple, zonally and annually averaged, energy-balance climatological model with diffusive heat transport and nonlinear albedo feedback is solved numerically. Some parameters of the model are varied, one by one, to find the resultant effects on the steady solution representing the climate. In particular, the outward radiation flux, the insulation distribution and the albedo parameterization are varied. We have found an accurate yet simple analytic expression for the mean annual insolation as a function of latitude and the obliquity of the Earth's rotation axis; this has enabled us to consider the effects of the oscillation of the obliquity. We have used a continuous albedo function which fits the observed values; it considerably reduces the sensitivity of the model. Climatic cycles, calculated by solving the time-dependent equation when parameters change slowly and periodically, are compared qualitatively with paleoclimatic records.

Model misspecification detection by means of multiple generator errors, using the observed potential map.

PubMed

Zhang, Z; Jewett, D L

1994-01-01

Due to model misspecification, currently-used Dipole Source Localization (DSL) methods may contain Multiple-Generator Errors (MulGenErrs) when fitting simultaneously-active dipoles. The size of the MulGenErr is a function of both the model used, and the dipole parameters, including the dipoles' waveforms (time-varying magnitudes). For a given fitting model, by examining the variation of the MulGenErrs (or the fit parameters) under different waveforms for the same generating-dipoles, the accuracy of the fitting model for this set of dipoles can be determined. This method of testing model misspecification can be applied to evoked potential maps even when the parameters of the generating-dipoles are unknown. The dipole parameters fitted in a model should only be accepted if the model can be shown to be sufficiently accurate.

Assessing composition and structure of soft biphasic media from Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongmei; Wang, Yue; Fatemi, Mostafa; Insana, Michael F.

2017-03-01

Kelvin-Voigt fractional derivative (KVFD) model parameters have been used to describe viscoelastic properties of soft tissues. However, translating model parameters into a concise set of intrinsic mechanical properties related to tissue composition and structure remains challenging. This paper begins by exploring these relationships using a biphasic emulsion materials with known composition. Mechanical properties are measured by analyzing data from two indentation techniques—ramp-stress relaxation and load-unload hysteresis tests. Material composition is predictably correlated with viscoelastic model parameters. Model parameters estimated from the tests reveal that elastic modulus E 0 closely approximates the shear modulus for pure gelatin. Fractional-order parameter α and time constant τ vary monotonically with the volume fraction of the material’s fluid component. α characterizes medium fluidity and the rate of energy dissipation, and τ is a viscous time constant. Numerical simulations suggest that the viscous coefficient η is proportional to the energy lost during quasi-static force-displacement cycles, E A . The slope of E A versus η is determined by α and the applied indentation ramp time T r. Experimental measurements from phantom and ex vivo liver data show close agreement with theoretical predictions of the η -{{E}A} relation. The relative error is less than 20% for emulsions 22% for liver. We find that KVFD model parameters form a concise features space for biphasic medium characterization that described time-varying mechanical properties. The experimental work was carried out at the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, USA. Methodological development, including numerical simulation and all data analysis, were carried out at the school of Life Science and Technology, Xi’an JiaoTong University, 710049, China.

Attitude error response of structures to actuator/sensor noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, A. V.

1991-01-01

Explicit closed-form formulas are presented for the RMS attitude-error response to sensor and actuator noise for co-located actuators/sensors as a function of both control-gain parameters and structure parameters. The main point of departure is the use of continuum models. In particular the anisotropic Timoshenko model is used for lattice trusses typified by the NASA EPS Structure Model and the Evolutionary Model. One conclusion is that the maximum attainable improvement in the attitude error varying either structure parameters or control gains is 3 dB for the axial and torsion modes, the bending being essentially insensitive. The results are similar whether the Bernoulli model or the anisotropic Timoshenko model is used.

Holographic dark energy in higher derivative gravity with time varying model parameter c2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, B.; Ansari, M.

2015-01-01

Purpose of this paper is to study holographic dark energy in higher derivative gravity assuming the model parameter c2 as a slowly time varying function. Since dark energy emerges as combined effect of linear as well as non-linear terms of curvature, therefore it is important to see holographic dark energy at higher derivative gravity, where action contains both linear as well as non-linear terms of Ricci curvature R. We consider non-interacting scenario of the holographic dark energy with dark matter in spatially flat universe and obtain evolution of the equation of state parameter. Also, we determine deceleration parameter as well as the evolution of dark energy density to explain expansion of the universe. Further, we investigate validity of generalized second law of thermodynamics in this scenario. Finally, we find out a cosmological application of our work by evaluating a relation for the equation of state of holographic dark energy for low red-shifts containing c2 correction.

New Passivity Criteria for Fuzzy Bam Neural Networks with Markovian Jumping Parameters and Time-Varying Delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadivel, P.; Sakthivel, R.; Mathiyalagan, K.; Thangaraj, P.

2013-02-01

This paper addresses the problem of passivity analysis issue for a class of fuzzy bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters and time varying delays. A set of sufficient conditions for the passiveness of the considered fuzzy BAM neural network model is derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities by using the delay fractioning technique together with the Lyapunov function approach. In addition, the uncertainties are inevitable in neural networks because of the existence of modeling errors and external disturbance. Further, this result is extended to study the robust passivity criteria for uncertain fuzzy BAM neural networks with time varying delays and uncertainties. These criteria are expressed in the form of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs), which can be efficiently solved via standard numerical software. Two numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results.

Robust check loss-based variable selection of high-dimensional single-index varying-coefficient model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yunquan; Lin, Lu; Jian, Ling

2016-07-01

Single-index varying-coefficient model is an important mathematical modeling method to model nonlinear phenomena in science and engineering. In this paper, we develop a variable selection method for high-dimensional single-index varying-coefficient models using a shrinkage idea. The proposed procedure can simultaneously select significant nonparametric components and parametric components. Under defined regularity conditions, with appropriate selection of tuning parameters, the consistency of the variable selection procedure and the oracle property of the estimators are established. Moreover, due to the robustness of the check loss function to outliers in the finite samples, our proposed variable selection method is more robust than the ones based on the least squares criterion. Finally, the method is illustrated with numerical simulations.

Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling.

PubMed

Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

2018-03-05

A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Error propagation of partial least squares for parameters optimization in NIR modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Chenzhao; Dai, Shengyun; Qiao, Yanjiang; Wu, Zhisheng

2018-03-01

A novel methodology is proposed to determine the error propagation of partial least-square (PLS) for parameters optimization in near-infrared (NIR) modeling. The parameters include spectral pretreatment, latent variables and variable selection. In this paper, an open source dataset (corn) and a complicated dataset (Gardenia) were used to establish PLS models under different modeling parameters. And error propagation of modeling parameters for water quantity in corn and geniposide quantity in Gardenia were presented by both type І and type II error. For example, when variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least square (iPLS) and backward interval partial least square (BiPLS) variable selection algorithms were used for geniposide in Gardenia, compared with synergy interval partial least squares (SiPLS), the error weight varied from 5% to 65%, 55% and 15%. The results demonstrated how and what extent the different modeling parameters affect error propagation of PLS for parameters optimization in NIR modeling. The larger the error weight, the worse the model. Finally, our trials finished a powerful process in developing robust PLS models for corn and Gardenia under the optimal modeling parameters. Furthermore, it could provide a significant guidance for the selection of modeling parameters of other multivariate calibration models.

How certain are the process parameterizations in our models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharari, Shervan; Hrachowitz, Markus; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Matgen, Patrick; Razavi, Saman; Savenije, Hubert; Gupta, Hoshin; Wheater, Howard

2016-04-01

Environmental models are abstract simplifications of real systems. As a result, the elements of these models, including system architecture (structure), process parameterization and parameters inherit a high level of approximation and simplification. In a conventional model building exercise the parameter values are the only elements of a model which can vary while the rest of the modeling elements are often fixed a priori and therefore not subjected to change. Once chosen the process parametrization and model structure usually remains the same throughout the modeling process. The only flexibility comes from the changing parameter values, thereby enabling these models to reproduce the desired observation. This part of modeling practice, parameter identification and uncertainty, has attracted a significant attention in the literature during the last years. However what remains unexplored in our point of view is to what extent the process parameterization and system architecture (model structure) can support each other. In other words "Does a specific form of process parameterization emerge for a specific model given its system architecture and data while no or little assumption has been made about the process parameterization itself? In this study we relax the assumption regarding a specific pre-determined form for the process parameterizations of a rainfall/runoff model and examine how varying the complexity of the system architecture can lead to different or possibly contradictory parameterization forms than what would have been decided otherwise. This comparison implicitly and explicitly provides us with an assessment of how uncertain is our perception of model process parameterization in respect to the extent the data can support.

Physical models of polarization mode dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Menyuk, C.R.; Wai, P.K.A.

The effect of randomly varying birefringence on light propagation in optical fibers is studied theoretically in the parameter regime that will be used for long-distance communications. In this regime, the birefringence is large and varies very rapidly in comparison to the nonlinear and dispersive scale lengths. We determine the polarization mode dispersion, and we show that physically realistic models yield the same result for polarization mode dispersion as earlier heuristic models that were introduced by Poole. We also prove an ergodic theorem.

Prediction and Computation of Corrosion Rates of A36 Mild Steel in Oilfield Seawater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subir; Mondal, Rajdeep

2018-04-01

The parameters which primarily control the corrosion rate and life of steel structures are several and they vary across the different ocean and seawater as well as along the depth. While the effect of single parameter on corrosion behavior is known, the conjoint effects of multiple parameters and the interrelationship among the variables are complex. Millions sets of experiments are required to understand the mechanism of corrosion failure. Statistical modeling such as ANN is one solution that can reduce the number of experimentation. ANN model was developed using 170 sets of experimental data of A35 mild steel in simulated seawater, varying the corrosion influencing parameters SO4 2-, Cl-, HCO3 -,CO3 2-, CO2, O2, pH and temperature as input and the corrosion current as output. About 60% of experimental data were used to train the model, 20% for testing and 20% for validation. The model was developed by programming in Matlab. 80% of the validated data could predict the corrosion rate correctly. Corrosion rates predicted by the ANN model are displayed in 3D graphics which show many interesting phenomenon of the conjoint effects of multiple variables that might throw new ideas of mitigation of corrosion by simply modifying the chemistry of the constituents. The model could predict the corrosion rates of some real systems.

Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts

PubMed Central

López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model’s short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful models for decision-making in public health. PMID:28671941

Investigation of Homogeneous Relaxation Model Parameters and their Implications for Gasoline Injectors

DOE PAGES

Saha, Kaushik; Som, Sibendu; Battistoni, Michele

2017-01-01

Flash boiling is known to be a common phenomenon for gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine sprays. The Homogeneous Relaxation Model has been adopted in many recent numerical studies for predicting cavitation and flash boiling. The Homogeneous Relaxation Model is assessed in this study. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters has been documented to infer the driving factors for the flash-boiling predictions. The model parameters have been varied over a range and the differences in predictions of the extent of flashing have been studied. Apart from flashing in the near nozzle regions, mild cavitation is also predicted inside the gasoline injectors.more » The variation in the predicted time scales through the model parameters for predicting these two different thermodynamic phenomena (cavitation, flash) have been elaborated in this study. Turbulence model effects have also been investigated by comparing predictions from the standard and Re-Normalization Group (RNG) k-ε turbulence models.« less

Wall Shear Stress Distribution in a Patient-Specific Cerebral Aneurysm Model using Reduced Order Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Suyue; Chang, Gary Han; Schirmer, Clemens; Modarres-Sadeghi, Yahya

2016-11-01

We construct a reduced-order model (ROM) to study the Wall Shear Stress (WSS) distributions in image-based patient-specific aneurysms models. The magnitude of WSS has been shown to be a critical factor in growth and rupture of human aneurysms. We start the process by running a training case using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation with time-varying flow parameters, such that these parameters cover the range of parameters of interest. The method of snapshot Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) is utilized to construct the reduced-order bases using the training CFD simulation. The resulting ROM enables us to study the flow patterns and the WSS distributions over a range of system parameters computationally very efficiently with a relatively small number of modes. This enables comprehensive analysis of the model system across a range of physiological conditions without the need to re-compute the simulation for small changes in the system parameters.

Simulation Based Earthquake Forecasting with RSQSim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilchrist, J. J.; Jordan, T. H.; Dieterich, J. H.; Richards-Dinger, K. B.

2016-12-01

We are developing a physics-based forecasting model for earthquake ruptures in California. We employ the 3D boundary element code RSQSim to generate synthetic catalogs with millions of events that span up to a million years. The simulations incorporate rate-state fault constitutive properties in complex, fully interacting fault systems. The Unified California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) model and data sets are used for calibration of the catalogs and specification of fault geometry. Fault slip rates match the UCERF3 geologic slip rates and catalogs are tuned such that earthquake recurrence matches the UCERF3 model. Utilizing the Blue Waters Supercomputer, we produce a suite of million-year catalogs to investigate the epistemic uncertainty in the physical parameters used in the simulations. In particular, values of the rate- and state-friction parameters a and b, the initial shear and normal stress, as well as the earthquake slip speed, are varied over several simulations. In addition to testing multiple models with homogeneous values of the physical parameters, the parameters a, b, and the normal stress are varied with depth as well as in heterogeneous patterns across the faults. Cross validation of UCERF3 and RSQSim is performed within the SCEC Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM) to determine the affect of the uncertainties in physical parameters observed in the field and measured in the lab, on the uncertainties in probabilistic forecasting. We are particularly interested in the short-term hazards of multi-event sequences due to complex faulting and multi-fault ruptures.

Supply based on demand dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

2018-04-01

We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

Climate modeling for Yamal territory using supercomputer atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5-wiso

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denisova, N. Y.; Gribanov, K. G.; Werner, M.; Zakharov, V. I.

2015-11-01

Dependences of monthly means of regional averages of model atmospheric parameters on initial and boundary condition remoteness in the past are the subject of the study. We used atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso for simulation of monthly means of regional averages of climate parameters for Yamal region and different periods of premodeling. Time interval was varied from several months to 12 years. We present dependences of model monthly means of regional averages of surface temperature, 2 m air temperature and humidity for December of 2000 on duration of premodeling. Comparison of these results with reanalysis data showed that best coincidence with true parameters could be reached if duration of pre-modelling is approximately 10 years.

Population Synthesis of Radio and Y-ray Millisecond Pulsars Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonthier, Peter L.; Billman, C.; Harding, A. K.

2013-04-01

We present preliminary results of a new population synthesis of millisecond pulsars (MSP) from the Galactic disk using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to better understand the model parameter space. We include empirical radio and γ-ray luminosity models that are dependent on the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. The magnitudes of the model luminosities are adjusted to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of ten radio surveys and by Fermi, predicting the MSP birth rate in the Galaxy. We follow a similar set of assumptions that we have used in previous, more constrained Monte Carlo simulations. The parameters associated with the birth distributions such as those for the accretion rate, magnetic field and period distributions are also free to vary. With the large set of free parameters, we employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to explore the large and small worlds of the parameter space. We present preliminary comparisons of the simulated and detected distributions of radio and γ-ray pulsar characteristics. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (REU and RUI), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program.

Comparing an annual and daily time-step model for predicting field-scale P loss

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Several models with varying degrees of complexity are available for describing P movement through the landscape. The complexity of these models is dependent on the amount of data required by the model, the number of model parameters needed to be estimated, the theoretical rigor of the governing equa...

Regularized Semiparametric Estimation for Ordinary Differential Equations

PubMed Central

Li, Yun; Zhu, Ji; Wang, Naisyin

2015-01-01

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in modeling dynamic systems and have ample applications in the fields of physics, engineering, economics and biological sciences. The ODE parameters often possess physiological meanings and can help scientists gain better understanding of the system. One key interest is thus to well estimate these parameters. Ideally, constant parameters are preferred due to their easy interpretation. In reality, however, constant parameters can be too restrictive such that even after incorporating error terms, there could still be unknown sources of disturbance that lead to poor agreement between observed data and the estimated ODE system. In this paper, we address this issue and accommodate short-term interferences by allowing parameters to vary with time. We propose a new regularized estimation procedure on the time-varying parameters of an ODE system so that these parameters could change with time during transitions but remain constants within stable stages. We found, through simulation studies, that the proposed method performs well and tends to have less variation in comparison to the non-regularized approach. On the theoretical front, we derive finite-sample estimation error bounds for the proposed method. Applications of the proposed method to modeling the hare-lynx relationship and the measles incidence dynamic in Ontario, Canada lead to satisfactory and meaningful results. PMID:26392639

Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

2012-04-01

In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT's parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual's choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT's parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Exploratory modeling of forest disturbance scenarios in central Oregon using computational experiments in GIS

Treesearch

Deana D. Pennington

2007-01-01

Exploratory modeling is an approach used when process and/or parameter uncertainties are such that modeling attempts at realistic prediction are not appropriate. Exploratory modeling makes use of computational experimentation to test how varying model scenarios drive model outcome. The goal of exploratory modeling is to better understand the system of interest through...

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the relative sensitivities of the hydrologic parameters of these two models, we used Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). By combining the NRMSE index with the flow duration curve analysis, we derived an approach to measure parameter sensitivities under different flow regimes. Results show that the parameters related to groundwater are highly sensitive in the LMR watershed, whereas the LVW watershed is primarily sensitive to near surface and impervious parameters. The high and medium flows are more impacted by most of the parameters. Low flow regime was highly sensitive to groundwater related parameters. Moreover, our approach is found to be useful in facilitating model development and calibration. This journal article describes hydrological modeling of climate change and land use changes on stream hydrology, and elucidates the importance of hydrological model construction in generating valid modeling results.

A Study of Al-Mn Transition Edge Sensor Engineering for Stability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George, E. M.; et al.

2013-11-10

The stability of Al-Mn transition edge sensor (TES) bolometers is studied as we vary the engineered TES transition, heat capacity, and/or coupling between the heat capacity and TES. We present thermal structure measurements of each of the 39 designs tested. The data is accurately fit by a two-body bolometer model, which allows us to extract the basic TES parameters that affect device stability. We conclude that parameters affecting device stability can be engineered for optimal device operation, and present the model parameters extracted for the different TES designs.

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

2016-01-01

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Validation for global solar wind prediction using Ulysses comparison: Multiple coronal and heliospheric models installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.

2016-08-01

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models' capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs. The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

The four fixed points of scale invariant single field cosmological models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, BingKan, E-mail: bxue@princeton.edu

2012-10-01

We introduce a new set of flow parameters to describe the time dependence of the equation of state and the speed of sound in single field cosmological models. A scale invariant power spectrum is produced if these flow parameters satisfy specific dynamical equations. We analyze the flow of these parameters and find four types of fixed points that encompass all known single field models. Moreover, near each fixed point we uncover new models where the scale invariance of the power spectrum relies on having simultaneously time varying speed of sound and equation of state. We describe several distinctive new modelsmore » and discuss constraints from strong coupling and superluminality.« less

Practical identifiability analysis of a minimal cardiovascular system model.

PubMed

Pironet, Antoine; Docherty, Paul D; Dauby, Pierre C; Chase, J Geoffrey; Desaive, Thomas

2017-01-17

Parameters of mathematical models of the cardiovascular system can be used to monitor cardiovascular state, such as total stressed blood volume status, vessel elastance and resistance. To do so, the model parameters have to be estimated from data collected at the patient's bedside. This work considers a seven-parameter model of the cardiovascular system and investigates whether these parameters can be uniquely determined using indices derived from measurements of arterial and venous pressures, and stroke volume. An error vector defined the residuals between the simulated and reference values of the seven clinically available haemodynamic indices. The sensitivity of this error vector to each model parameter was analysed, as well as the collinearity between parameters. To assess practical identifiability of the model parameters, profile-likelihood curves were constructed for each parameter. Four of the seven model parameters were found to be practically identifiable from the selected data. The remaining three parameters were practically non-identifiable. Among these non-identifiable parameters, one could be decreased as much as possible. The other two non-identifiable parameters were inversely correlated, which prevented their precise estimation. This work presented the practical identifiability analysis of a seven-parameter cardiovascular system model, from limited clinical data. The analysis showed that three of the seven parameters were practically non-identifiable, thus limiting the use of the model as a monitoring tool. Slight changes in the time-varying function modeling cardiac contraction and use of larger values for the reference range of venous pressure made the model fully practically identifiable. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dynamical compensation and structural identifiability of biological models: Analysis, implications, and reconciliation.

PubMed

Villaverde, Alejandro F; Banga, Julio R

2017-11-01

The concept of dynamical compensation has been recently introduced to describe the ability of a biological system to keep its output dynamics unchanged in the face of varying parameters. However, the original definition of dynamical compensation amounts to lack of structural identifiability. This is relevant if model parameters need to be estimated, as is often the case in biological modelling. Care should we taken when using an unidentifiable model to extract biological insight: the estimated values of structurally unidentifiable parameters are meaningless, and model predictions about unmeasured state variables can be wrong. Taking this into account, we explore alternative definitions of dynamical compensation that do not necessarily imply structural unidentifiability. Accordingly, we show different ways in which a model can be made identifiable while exhibiting dynamical compensation. Our analyses enable the use of the new concept of dynamical compensation in the context of parameter identification, and reconcile it with the desirable property of structural identifiability.

Estimation of soil hydraulic properties with microwave techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, P. E.; Gurney, R. J.; Camillo, P. J.

1985-01-01

Useful quantitative information about soil properties may be obtained by calibrating energy and moisture balance models with remotely sensed data. A soil physics model solves heat and moisture flux equations in the soil profile and is driven by the surface energy balance. Model generated surface temperature and soil moisture and temperature profiles are then used in a microwave emission model to predict the soil brightness temperature. The model hydraulic parameters are varied until the predicted temperatures agree with the remotely sensed values. This method is used to estimate values for saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated matrix potential, and a soil texture parameter. The conductivity agreed well with a value measured with an infiltration ring and the other parameters agreed with values in the literature.

Uniform modeling of bacterial colony patterns with varying nutrient and substrate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarcz, Deborah; Levine, Herbert; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Ariel, Gil

2016-04-01

Bacteria develop complex patterns depending on growth condition. For example, Bacillus subtilis exhibit five different patterns depending on substrate hardness and nutrient concentration. We present a unified integro-differential model that reproduces the entire experimentally observed morphology diagram at varying nutrient concentrations and substrate hardness. The model allows a comprehensive and quantitative comparison between experimental and numerical variables and parameters, such as colony growth rate, nutrient concentration and diffusion constants. As a result, the role of the different physical mechanisms underlying and regulating the growth of the colony can be evaluated.

Generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Li

In this dissertation, we investigate the generalized semiparametric varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data that can flexibly model three types of covariate effects: time-constant effects, time-varying effects, and covariate-varying effects, i.e., the covariate effects that depend on other possibly time-dependent exposure variables. First, we consider the model that assumes the time-varying effects are unspecified functions of time while the covariate-varying effects are parametric functions of an exposure variable specified up to a finite number of unknown parameters. The estimation procedures are developed using multivariate local linear smoothing and generalized weighted least squares estimation techniques. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established. The simulation studies show that the proposed methods have satisfactory finite sample performance. ACTG 244 clinical trial of HIV infected patients are applied to examine the effects of antiretroviral treatment switching before and after HIV developing the 215-mutation. Our analysis shows benefit of treatment switching before developing the 215-mutation. The proposed methods are also applied to the STEP study with MITT cases showing that they have broad applications in medical research.

A Generalized Partial Credit Model: Application of an EM Algorithm.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Muraki, Eiji

1992-01-01

The partial credit model with a varying slope parameter is developed and called the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). Analysis results for simulated data by this and other polytomous item-response models demonstrate that the rating formulation of the GPCM is adaptable to the analysis of polytomous item responses. (SLD)

Non-stationary noise estimation using dictionary learning and Gaussian mixture models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, James M.; Rockmore, Daniel N.; Wang, Yang

2014-02-01

Stationarity of the noise distribution is a common assumption in image processing. This assumption greatly simplifies denoising estimators and other model parameters and consequently assuming stationarity is often a matter of convenience rather than an accurate model of noise characteristics. The problematic nature of this assumption is exacerbated in real-world contexts, where noise is often highly non-stationary and can possess time- and space-varying characteristics. Regardless of model complexity, estimating the parameters of noise dis- tributions in digital images is a difficult task, and estimates are often based on heuristic assumptions. Recently, sparse Bayesian dictionary learning methods were shown to produce accurate estimates of the level of additive white Gaussian noise in images with minimal assumptions. We show that a similar model is capable of accu- rately modeling certain kinds of non-stationary noise processes, allowing for space-varying noise in images to be estimated, detected, and removed. We apply this modeling concept to several types of non-stationary noise and demonstrate the model's effectiveness on real-world problems, including denoising and segmentation of images according to noise characteristics, which has applications in image forensics.

Identification of gene regulation models from single-cell data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Lisa; Raymond, William; Munsky, Brian

2018-09-01

In quantitative analyses of biological processes, one may use many different scales of models (e.g. spatial or non-spatial, deterministic or stochastic, time-varying or at steady-state) or many different approaches to match models to experimental data (e.g. model fitting or parameter uncertainty/sloppiness quantification with different experiment designs). These different analyses can lead to surprisingly different results, even when applied to the same data and the same model. We use a simplified gene regulation model to illustrate many of these concerns, especially for ODE analyses of deterministic processes, chemical master equation and finite state projection analyses of heterogeneous processes, and stochastic simulations. For each analysis, we employ MATLAB and PYTHON software to consider a time-dependent input signal (e.g. a kinase nuclear translocation) and several model hypotheses, along with simulated single-cell data. We illustrate different approaches (e.g. deterministic and stochastic) to identify the mechanisms and parameters of the same model from the same simulated data. For each approach, we explore how uncertainty in parameter space varies with respect to the chosen analysis approach or specific experiment design. We conclude with a discussion of how our simulated results relate to the integration of experimental and computational investigations to explore signal-activated gene expression models in yeast (Neuert et al 2013 Science 339 584–7) and human cells (Senecal et al 2014 Cell Rep. 8 75–83)5.

A global search inversion for earthquake kinematic rupture history: Application to the 2000 western Tottori, Japan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatanesi, A.; Cirella, A.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

2007-01-01

We present a two-stage nonlinear technique to invert strong motions records and geodetic data to retrieve the rupture history of an earthquake on a finite fault. To account for the actual rupture complexity, the fault parameters are spatially variable peak slip velocity, slip direction, rupture time and risetime. The unknown parameters are given at the nodes of the subfaults, whereas the parameters within a subfault are allowed to vary through a bilinear interpolation of the nodal values. The forward modeling is performed with a discrete wave number technique, whose Green's functions include the complete response of the vertically varying Earth structure. During the first stage, an algorithm based on the heat-bath simulated annealing generates an ensemble of models that efficiently sample the good data-fitting regions of parameter space. In the second stage (appraisal), the algorithm performs a statistical analysis of the model ensemble and computes a weighted mean model and its standard deviation. This technique, rather than simply looking at the best model, extracts the most stable features of the earthquake rupture that are consistent with the data and gives an estimate of the variability of each model parameter. We present some synthetic tests to show the effectiveness of the method and its robustness to uncertainty of the adopted crustal model. Finally, we apply this inverse technique to the well recorded 2000 western Tottori, Japan, earthquake (Mw 6.6); we confirm that the rupture process is characterized by large slip (3-4 m) at very shallow depths but, differently from previous studies, we imaged a new slip patch (2-2.5 m) located deeper, between 14 and 18 km depth. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Sensitivity analysis of infectious disease models: methods, advances and their application

PubMed Central

Wu, Jianyong; Dhingra, Radhika; Gambhir, Manoj; Remais, Justin V.

2013-01-01

Sensitivity analysis (SA) can aid in identifying influential model parameters and optimizing model structure, yet infectious disease modelling has yet to adopt advanced SA techniques that are capable of providing considerable insights over traditional methods. We investigate five global SA methods—scatter plots, the Morris and Sobol’ methods, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient and the sensitivity heat map method—and detail their relative merits and pitfalls when applied to a microparasite (cholera) and macroparasite (schistosomaisis) transmission model. The methods investigated yielded similar results with respect to identifying influential parameters, but offered specific insights that vary by method. The classical methods differed in their ability to provide information on the quantitative relationship between parameters and model output, particularly over time. The heat map approach provides information about the group sensitivity of all model state variables, and the parameter sensitivity spectrum obtained using this method reveals the sensitivity of all state variables to each parameter over the course of the simulation period, especially valuable for expressing the dynamic sensitivity of a microparasite epidemic model to its parameters. A summary comparison is presented to aid infectious disease modellers in selecting appropriate methods, with the goal of improving model performance and design. PMID:23864497

Correcting for Measurement Error in Time-Varying Covariates in Marginal Structural Models.

PubMed

Kyle, Ryan P; Moodie, Erica E M; Klein, Marina B; Abrahamowicz, Michał

2016-08-01

Unbiased estimation of causal parameters from marginal structural models (MSMs) requires a fundamental assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Unfortunately, the time-varying covariates used to obtain inverse probability weights are often error-prone. Although substantial measurement error in important confounders is known to undermine control of confounders in conventional unweighted regression models, this issue has received comparatively limited attention in the MSM literature. Here we propose a novel application of the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure to address measurement error in time-varying covariates, and we compare 2 approaches. The direct approach to SIMEX-based correction targets outcome model parameters, while the indirect approach corrects the weights estimated using the exposure model. We assess the performance of the proposed methods in simulations under different clinically plausible assumptions. The simulations demonstrate that measurement errors in time-dependent covariates may induce substantial bias in MSM estimators of causal effects of time-varying exposures, and that both proposed SIMEX approaches yield practically unbiased estimates in scenarios featuring low-to-moderate degrees of error. We illustrate the proposed approach in a simple analysis of the relationship between sustained virological response and liver fibrosis progression among persons infected with hepatitis C virus, while accounting for measurement error in γ-glutamyltransferase, using data collected in the Canadian Co-infection Cohort Study from 2003 to 2014. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Genetic Algorithm-Guided, Adaptive Model Order Reduction of Flexible Aircrafts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Jin; Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Suh, Peter; Brenner, Martin J.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for automated model order reduction (MOR) of flexible aircrafts to construct linear parameter-varying (LPV) reduced order models (ROM) for aeroservoelasticity (ASE) analysis and control synthesis in broad flight parameter space. The novelty includes utilization of genetic algorithms (GAs) to automatically determine the states for reduction while minimizing the trial-and-error process and heuristics requirement to perform MOR; balanced truncation for unstable systems to achieve locally optimal realization of the full model; congruence transformation for "weak" fulfillment of state consistency across the entire flight parameter space; and ROM interpolation based on adaptive grid refinement to generate a globally functional LPV ASE ROM. The methodology is applied to the X-56A MUTT model currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that X-56A ROM with less than one-seventh the number of states relative to the original model is able to accurately predict system response among all input-output channels for pitch, roll, and ASE control at various flight conditions. The GA-guided approach exceeds manual and empirical state selection in terms of efficiency and accuracy. The adaptive refinement allows selective addition of the grid points in the parameter space where flight dynamics varies dramatically to enhance interpolation accuracy without over-burdening controller synthesis and onboard memory efforts downstream. The present MOR framework can be used by control engineers for robust ASE controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Gesellschaft fuer angewandte Mathematik und Mechanik, Scientific Annual Meeting, Universitaet Hannover, Hanover, Federal Republic of Germany, Apr. 8-12, 1990, Reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Various papers on applied mathematics and mechanics are presented. Among the individual topics addressed are: dynamical systems with time-varying or unsteady structure, micromechanical modeling of creep rupture, forced vibrations of elastic sandwich plates with thick surface layers, postbuckling of a complete spherical shell under a line load, differential-geometric approach to the multibody system dynamics, stability of an oscillator with stochastic parametric excitation, identification strategies for crack-formation in rotors, identification of physical parameters of FEMs, impact model for elastic and partly plastic impacts on objects, varying delay and stability in dynamical systems. Also discussed are: parameter identification of a hybrid model for vibration analysis using the FEM, vibration behavior of a labyrinth seal with through-flow, similarities in the boundary layer of fiber composite materials, distortion parameter in shell theories, elastoplastic crack problem at finite strain, algorithm for computing effective stiffnesses of plates with periodic structure, plasticity of metal-matrix composites in a mixed stress-strain space formation, constitutive equations in directly formulated plate theories, microbuckling and homogenization for long fiber composites.

Model parameter estimation approach based on incremental analysis for lithium-ion batteries without using open circuit voltage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hongjie; Yuan, Shifei; Zhang, Xi; Yin, Chengliang; Ma, Xuerui

2015-08-01

To improve the suitability of lithium-ion battery model under varying scenarios, such as fluctuating temperature and SoC variation, dynamic model with parameters updated realtime should be developed. In this paper, an incremental analysis-based auto regressive exogenous (I-ARX) modeling method is proposed to eliminate the modeling error caused by the OCV effect and improve the accuracy of parameter estimation. Then, its numerical stability, modeling error, and parametric sensitivity are analyzed at different sampling rates (0.02, 0.1, 0.5 and 1 s). To identify the model parameters recursively, a bias-correction recursive least squares (CRLS) algorithm is applied. Finally, the pseudo random binary sequence (PRBS) and urban dynamic driving sequences (UDDSs) profiles are performed to verify the realtime performance and robustness of the newly proposed model and algorithm. Different sampling rates (1 Hz and 10 Hz) and multiple temperature points (5, 25, and 45 °C) are covered in our experiments. The experimental and simulation results indicate that the proposed I-ARX model can present high accuracy and suitability for parameter identification without using open circuit voltage.

Identification of hydrological model parameter variation using ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Chao; Liu, Pan; Guo, Shenglian; Li, Zejun; Wang, Dingbao

2016-12-01

Hydrological model parameters play an important role in the ability of model prediction. In a stationary context, parameters of hydrological models are treated as constants; however, model parameters may vary with time under climate change and anthropogenic activities. The technique of ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is proposed to identify the temporal variation of parameters for a two-parameter monthly water balance model (TWBM) by assimilating the runoff observations. Through a synthetic experiment, the proposed method is evaluated with time-invariant (i.e., constant) parameters and different types of parameter variations, including trend, abrupt change and periodicity. Various levels of observation uncertainty are designed to examine the performance of the EnKF. The results show that the EnKF can successfully capture the temporal variations of the model parameters. The application to the Wudinghe basin shows that the water storage capacity (SC) of the TWBM model has an apparent increasing trend during the period from 1958 to 2000. The identified temporal variation of SC is explained by land use and land cover changes due to soil and water conservation measures. In contrast, the application to the Tongtianhe basin shows that the estimated SC has no significant variation during the simulation period of 1982-2013, corresponding to the relatively stationary catchment properties. The evapotranspiration parameter (C) has temporal variations while no obvious change patterns exist. The proposed method provides an effective tool for quantifying the temporal variations of the model parameters, thereby improving the accuracy and reliability of model simulations and forecasts.

Determining fundamental properties of matter created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novak, J.; Novak, K.; Pratt, S.; Vredevoogd, J.; Coleman-Smith, C. E.; Wolpert, R. L.

2014-03-01

Posterior distributions for physical parameters describing relativistic heavy-ion collisions, such as the viscosity of the quark-gluon plasma, are extracted through a comparison of hydrodynamic-based transport models to experimental results from 100AGeV+100AGeV Au +Au collisions at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. By simultaneously varying six parameters and by evaluating several classes of observables, we are able to explore the complex intertwined dependencies of observables on model parameters. The methods provide a full multidimensional posterior distribution for the model output, including a range of acceptable values for each parameter, and reveal correlations between them. The breadth of observables and the number of parameters considered here go beyond previous studies in this field. The statistical tools, which are based upon Gaussian process emulators, are tested in detail and should be extendable to larger data sets and a higher number of parameters.

Sloppy-model universality class and the Vandermonde matrix.

PubMed

Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Brouwer, Piet W; Elser, Veit; Sethna, James P

2006-10-13

In a variety of contexts, physicists study complex, nonlinear models with many unknown or tunable parameters to explain experimental data. We explain why such systems so often are sloppy: the system behavior depends only on a few "stiff" combinations of the parameters and is unchanged as other "sloppy" parameter combinations vary by orders of magnitude. We observe that the eigenvalue spectra for the sensitivity of sloppy models have a striking, characteristic form with a density of logarithms of eigenvalues which is roughly constant over a large range. We suggest that the common features of sloppy models indicate that they may belong to a common universality class. In particular, we motivate focusing on a Vandermonde ensemble of multiparameter nonlinear models and show in one limit that they exhibit the universal features of sloppy models.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

Parameterized LMI Based Diagonal Dominance Compensator Study for Polynomial Linear Parameter Varying System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xiaobao; Li, Huacong; Jia, Qiusheng

2017-12-01

For dynamic decoupling of polynomial linear parameter varying(PLPV) system, a robust dominance pre-compensator design method is given. The parameterized precompensator design problem is converted into an optimal problem constrained with parameterized linear matrix inequalities(PLMI) by using the conception of parameterized Lyapunov function(PLF). To solve the PLMI constrained optimal problem, the precompensator design problem is reduced into a normal convex optimization problem with normal linear matrix inequalities (LMI) constraints on a new constructed convex polyhedron. Moreover, a parameter scheduling pre-compensator is achieved, which satisfies robust performance and decoupling performances. Finally, the feasibility and validity of the robust diagonal dominance pre-compensator design method are verified by the numerical simulation on a turbofan engine PLPV model.

Pulsed Inductive Plasma Acceleration: Performance Optimization Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polzin, Kurt A.

2014-01-01

Optimization criteria for pulsed inductive plasma acceleration are developed using an acceleration model consisting of a set of coupled circuit equations describing the time-varying current in the thruster and a one-dimensional momentum equation. The model is nondimensionalized, resulting in the identification of several scaling parameters that are varied to optimize the performance of the thruster. The analysis reveals the benefits of underdamped current waveforms and leads to a performance optimization criterion that requires the matching of the natural period of the discharge and the acceleration timescale imposed by the inertia of the working gas. In addition, the performance increases when a greater fraction of the propellant is initially located nearer to the inductive acceleration coil. While the dimensionless model uses a constant temperature formulation in calculating performance, the scaling parameters that yield the optimum performance are shown to be relatively invariant if a self-consistent description of energy in the plasma is instead used.

Mixed-effects varying-coefficient model with skewed distribution coupled with cause-specific varying-coefficient hazard model with random-effects for longitudinal-competing risks data analysis.

PubMed

Lu, Tao; Wang, Min; Liu, Guangying; Dong, Guang-Hui; Qian, Feng

2016-01-01

It is well known that there is strong relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts in AIDS studies. However, the relationship between them changes during the course of treatment and may vary among individuals. During treatments, some individuals may experience terminal events such as death. Because the terminal event may be related to the individual's viral load measurements, the terminal mechanism is non-ignorable. Furthermore, there exists competing risks from multiple types of events, such as AIDS-related death and other death. Most joint models for the analysis of longitudinal-survival data developed in literatures have focused on constant coefficients and assume symmetric distribution for the endpoints, which does not meet the needs for investigating the nature of varying relationship between HIV viral load and CD4 cell counts in practice. We develop a mixed-effects varying-coefficient model with skewed distribution coupled with cause-specific varying-coefficient hazard model with random-effects to deal with varying relationship between the two endpoints for longitudinal-competing risks survival data. A fully Bayesian inference procedure is established to estimate parameters in the joint model. The proposed method is applied to a multicenter AIDS cohort study. Various scenarios-based potential models that account for partial data features are compared. Some interesting findings are presented.

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrological modelling

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the...

Shock Layer Radiation Modeling and Uncertainty for Mars Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, Christopher O.; Brandis, Aaron M.; Sutton, Kenneth

2012-01-01

A model for simulating nonequilibrium radiation from Mars entry shock layers is presented. A new chemical kinetic rate model is developed that provides good agreement with recent EAST and X2 shock tube radiation measurements. This model includes a CO dissociation rate that is a factor of 13 larger than the rate used widely in previous models. Uncertainties in the proposed rates are assessed along with uncertainties in translational-vibrational relaxation modeling parameters. The stagnation point radiative flux uncertainty due to these flowfield modeling parameter uncertainties is computed to vary from 50 to 200% for a range of free-stream conditions, with densities ranging from 5e-5 to 5e-4 kg/m3 and velocities ranging from of 6.3 to 7.7 km/s. These conditions cover the range of anticipated peak radiative heating conditions for proposed hypersonic inflatable aerodynamic decelerators (HIADs). Modeling parameters for the radiative spectrum are compiled along with a non-Boltzmann rate model for the dominant radiating molecules, CO, CN, and C2. A method for treating non-local absorption in the non-Boltzmann model is developed, which is shown to result in up to a 50% increase in the radiative flux through absorption by the CO 4th Positive band. The sensitivity of the radiative flux to the radiation modeling parameters is presented and the uncertainty for each parameter is assessed. The stagnation point radiative flux uncertainty due to these radiation modeling parameter uncertainties is computed to vary from 18 to 167% for the considered range of free-stream conditions. The total radiative flux uncertainty is computed as the root sum square of the flowfield and radiation parametric uncertainties, which results in total uncertainties ranging from 50 to 260%. The main contributors to these significant uncertainties are the CO dissociation rate and the CO heavy-particle excitation rates. Applying the baseline flowfield and radiation models developed in this work, the radiative heating for the Mars Pathfinder probe is predicted to be nearly 20 W/cm2. In contrast to previous studies, this value is shown to be significant relative to the convective heating.

Inverse modeling approach for evaluation of kinetic parameters of a biofilm reactor using tabu search.

PubMed

Kumar, B Shiva; Venkateswarlu, Ch

2014-08-01

The complex nature of biological reactions in biofilm reactors often poses difficulties in analyzing such reactors experimentally. Mathematical models could be very useful for their design and analysis. However, application of biofilm reactor models to practical problems proves somewhat ineffective due to the lack of knowledge of accurate kinetic models and uncertainty in model parameters. In this work, we propose an inverse modeling approach based on tabu search (TS) to estimate the parameters of kinetic and film thickness models. TS is used to estimate these parameters as a consequence of the validation of the mathematical models of the process with the aid of measured data obtained from an experimental fixed-bed anaerobic biofilm reactor involving the treatment of pharmaceutical industry wastewater. The results evaluated for different modeling configurations of varying degrees of complexity illustrate the effectiveness of TS for accurate estimation of kinetic and film thickness model parameters of the biofilm process. The results show that the two-dimensional mathematical model with Edward kinetics (with its optimum parameters as mu(max)rho(s)/Y = 24.57, Ks = 1.352 and Ki = 102.36) and three-parameter film thickness expression (with its estimated parameters as a = 0.289 x 10(-5), b = 1.55 x 10(-4) and c = 15.2 x 10(-6)) better describes the biofilm reactor treating the industry wastewater.

A method for computing ion energy distributions for multifrequency capacitive discharges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Alan C. F.; Lieberman, M. A.; Verboncoeur, J. P.

2007-03-01

The ion energy distribution (IED) at a surface is an important parameter for processing in multiple radio frequency driven capacitive discharges. An analytical model is developed for the IED in a low pressure discharge based on a linear transfer function that relates the time-varying sheath voltage to the time-varying ion energy response at the surface. This model is in good agreement with particle-in-cell simulations over a wide range of single, dual, and triple frequency driven capacitive discharge excitations.

Identification of Time-Varying Pilot Control Behavior in Multi-Axis Control Tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

2012-01-01

Recent developments in fly-by-wire control architectures for rotorcraft have introduced new interest in the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior in multi-axis control tasks. In this paper a maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate the parameters of a pilot model with time-dependent sigmoid functions to characterize time-varying human control behavior. An experiment was performed by 9 general aviation pilots who had to perform a simultaneous roll and pitch control task with time-varying aircraft dynamics. In 8 different conditions, the axis containing the time-varying dynamics and the growth factor of the dynamics were varied, allowing for an analysis of the performance of the estimation method when estimating time-dependent parameter functions. In addition, a detailed analysis of pilots adaptation to the time-varying aircraft dynamics in both the roll and pitch axes could be performed. Pilot control behavior in both axes was significantly affected by the time-varying aircraft dynamics in roll and pitch, and by the growth factor. The main effect was found in the axis that contained the time-varying dynamics. However, pilot control behavior also changed over time in the axis not containing the time-varying aircraft dynamics. This indicates that some cross coupling exists in the perception and control processes between the roll and pitch axes.

Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models

PubMed Central

Knight, Christopher G.; Knight, Sylvia H. E.; Massey, Neil; Aina, Tolu; Christensen, Carl; Frame, Dave J.; Kettleborough, Jamie A.; Martin, Andrew; Pascoe, Stephen; Sanderson, Ben; Stainforth, David A.; Allen, Myles R.

2007-01-01

In complex spatial models, as used to predict the climate response to greenhouse gas emissions, parameter variation within plausible bounds has major effects on model behavior of interest. Here, we present an unprecedentedly large ensemble of >57,000 climate model runs in which 10 parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software used to run the model all have been varied. We relate information about the model runs to large-scale model behavior (equilibrium sensitivity of global mean temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide). We demonstrate that effects of parameter, hardware, and software variation are detectable, complex, and interacting. However, we find most of the effects of parameter variation are caused by a small subset of parameters. Notably, the entrainment coefficient in clouds is associated with 30% of the variation seen in climate sensitivity, although both low and high values can give high climate sensitivity. We demonstrate that the effect of hardware and software is small relative to the effect of parameter variation and, over the wide range of systems tested, may be treated as equivalent to that caused by changes in initial conditions. We discuss the significance of these results in relation to the design and interpretation of climate modeling experiments and large-scale modeling more generally. PMID:17640921

Exemplifying the Effects of Parameterization Shortcomings in the Numerical Simulation of Geological Energy and Mass Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dethlefsen, Frank; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Schäfer, Dirk

2016-04-01

Numerical simulations of hydraulic, thermal, geomechanical, or geochemical (THMC-) processes in the subsurface have been conducted for decades. Often, such simulations are commenced by applying a parameter set that is as realistic as possible. Then, a base scenario is calibrated on field observations. Finally, scenario simulations can be performed, for instance to forecast the system behavior after varying input data. In the context of subsurface energy and mass storage, however, these model calibrations based on field data are often not available, as these storage actions have not been carried out so far. Consequently, the numerical models merely rely on the parameter set initially selected, and uncertainties as a consequence of a lack of parameter values or process understanding may not be perceivable, not mentioning quantifiable. Therefore, conducting THMC simulations in the context of energy and mass storage deserves a particular review of the model parameterization with its input data, and such a review so far hardly exists to the required extent. Variability or aleatory uncertainty exists for geoscientific parameter values in general, and parameters for that numerous data points are available, such as aquifer permeabilities, may be described statistically thereby exhibiting statistical uncertainty. In this case, sensitivity analyses for quantifying the uncertainty in the simulation resulting from varying this parameter can be conducted. There are other parameters, where the lack of data quantity and quality implies a fundamental changing of ongoing processes when such a parameter value is varied in numerical scenario simulations. As an example for such a scenario uncertainty, varying the capillary entry pressure as one of the multiphase flow parameters can either allow or completely inhibit the penetration of an aquitard by gas. As the last example, the uncertainty of cap-rock fault permeabilities and consequently potential leakage rates of stored gases into shallow compartments are regarded as recognized ignorance by the authors of this study, as no realistic approach exists to determine this parameter and values are best guesses only. In addition to these aleatory uncertainties, an equivalent classification is possible for rating epistemic uncertainties describing the degree of understanding processes such as the geochemical and hydraulic effects following potential gas intrusions from deeper reservoirs into shallow aquifers. As an outcome of this grouping of uncertainties, prediction errors of scenario simulations can be calculated by sensitivity analyses, if the uncertainties are identified as statistical. However, if scenario uncertainties exist or even recognized ignorance has to be attested to a parameter or a process in question, the outcomes of simulations mainly depend on the decision of the modeler by choosing parameter values or by interpreting the occurring of processes. In that case, the informative value of numerical simulations is limited by ambiguous simulation results, which cannot be refined without improving the geoscientific database through laboratory or field studies on a longer term basis, so that the effects of the subsurface use may be predicted realistically. This discussion, amended by a compilation of available geoscientific data to parameterize such simulations, will be presented in this study.

Quantitative photoacoustic imaging in the acoustic regime using SPIM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beigl, Alexander; Elbau, Peter; Sadiq, Kamran; Scherzer, Otmar

2018-05-01

While in standard photoacoustic imaging the propagation of sound waves is modeled by the standard wave equation, our approach is based on a generalized wave equation with variable sound speed and material density, respectively. In this paper we present an approach for photoacoustic imaging, which in addition to the recovery of the absorption density parameter, the imaging parameter of standard photoacoustics, also allows us to reconstruct the spatially varying sound speed and density, respectively, of the medium. We provide analytical reconstruction formulas for all three parameters based in a linearized model based on single plane illumination microscopy (SPIM) techniques.

Magnetized strange quark model with Big Rip singularity in f(R, T) gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, P. K.; Sahoo, Parbati; Bishi, Binaya K.; Aygün, S.

2017-07-01

Locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-I magnetized strange quark matter (SQM) cosmological model has been studied based on f(R, T) gravity. The exact solutions of the field equations are derived with linearly time varying deceleration parameter, which is consistent with observational data (from SNIa, BAO and CMB) of standard cosmology. It is observed that the model begins with big bang and ends with a Big Rip. The transition of the deceleration parameter from decelerating phase to accelerating phase with respect to redshift obtained in our model fits with the recent observational data obtained by Farook et al. [Astrophys. J. 835, 26 (2017)]. The well-known Hubble parameter H(z) and distance modulus μ(z) are discussed with redshift.

Updated observational constraints on quintessence dark energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durrive, Jean-Baptiste; Ooba, Junpei; Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Sugiyama, Naoshi

2018-02-01

The recent GW170817 measurement favors the simplest dark energy models, such as a single scalar field. Quintessence models can be classified in two classes, freezing and thawing, depending on whether the equation of state decreases towards -1 or departs from it. In this paper, we put observational constraints on the parameters governing the equations of state of tracking freezing, scaling freezing, and thawing models using updated data, from the Planck 2015 release, joint light-curve analysis, and baryonic acoustic oscillations. Because of the current tensions on the value of the Hubble parameter H0, unlike previous authors, we let this parameter vary, which modifies significantly the results. Finally, we also derive constraints on neutrino masses in each of these scenarios.

Ensemble urban flood simulation in comparison with laboratory-scale experiments: Impact of interaction models for manhole, sewer pipe, and surface flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Seong Jin; Lee, Seungsoo; An, Hyunuk; Kawaike, Kenji; Nakagawa, Hajime

2016-11-01

An urban flood is an integrated phenomenon that is affected by various uncertainty sources such as input forcing, model parameters, complex geometry, and exchanges of flow among different domains in surfaces and subsurfaces. Despite considerable advances in urban flood modeling techniques, limited knowledge is currently available with regard to the impact of dynamic interaction among different flow domains on urban floods. In this paper, an ensemble method for urban flood modeling is presented to consider the parameter uncertainty of interaction models among a manhole, a sewer pipe, and surface flow. Laboratory-scale experiments on urban flood and inundation are performed under various flow conditions to investigate the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. The results show that ensemble simulation using interaction models based on weir and orifice formulas reproduces experimental data with high accuracy and detects the identifiability of model parameters. Among interaction-related parameters, the parameters of the sewer-manhole interaction show lower uncertainty than those of the sewer-surface interaction. Experimental data obtained under unsteady-state conditions are more informative than those obtained under steady-state conditions to assess the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. Although the optimal parameters vary according to the flow conditions, the difference is marginal. Simulation results also confirm the capability of the interaction models and the potential of the ensemble-based approaches to facilitate urban flood simulation.

Performance of Bootstrapping Approaches To Model Test Statistics and Parameter Standard Error Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevitt, Jonathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

2001-01-01

Evaluated the bootstrap method under varying conditions of nonnormality, sample size, model specification, and number of bootstrap samples drawn from the resampling space. Results for the bootstrap suggest the resampling-based method may be conservative in its control over model rejections, thus having an impact on the statistical power associated…

Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), with application to hydrologic models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rakovec, O.; Hill, Mary C.; Clark, M.P.; Weerts, A. H.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a hybrid local-global sensitivity analysis method termed the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA), which is used here to identify important and unimportant parameters and evaluate how model parameter importance changes as parameter values change. DELSA uses derivative-based “local” methods to obtain the distribution of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space, which promotes consideration of sensitivity analysis results in the context of simulated dynamics. This work presents DELSA, discusses how it relates to existing methods, and uses two hydrologic test cases to compare its performance with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method. The first test case is a simple nonlinear reservoir model with two parameters. The second test case involves five alternative “bucket-style” hydrologic models with up to 14 parameters applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both examples, Sobol' and DELSA identify similar important and unimportant parameters, with DELSA enabling more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. For example, in the real-world problem the time delay in runoff is the most important parameter in all models, but DELSA shows that for about 20% of parameter sets it is not important at all and alternative mechanisms and parameters dominate. Moreover, the time delay was identified as important in regions producing poor model fits, whereas other parameters were identified as more important in regions of the parameter space producing better model fits. The ability to understand how parameter importance varies through parameter space is critical to inform decisions about, for example, additional data collection and model development. The ability to perform such analyses with modest computational requirements provides exciting opportunities to evaluate complicated models as well as many alternative models.

Laser Cladding of Ti-6Al-4 V Powder on Ti-6Al-4 V Substrate: Effect of Laser Cladding Parameters on Microstructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottam, Ryan; Brandt, Milan

The laser cladding of Ti-6Al-4 V powder on Ti-6Al-4 V substrate has been investigated to determine laser parameters that could be used as a repair technology for Ti-6Al-4 V components. The parameters chosen for the investigation were developed by an analytical laser cladding model. Holding clad height and melt pool depth constant, the traversing speed was varied between 300 mm/min and 1500 mm/min, an associated power for the given speed was calculated by the model. Two different melt pool depths were used in the calculation of laser power for a given process velocity. The resulting microstructures in the clad zone varied from a relatively thin martensitic structure to a dendritic/thick martensitic structure. The heat affected zone (HAZ) showed a refinement of the Widmanstatten microstructure with a decreasing laser traversing speed and a coarser martensitic structure for the sample prepared with a deeper melt pool.

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiao, Y.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.; Murphy, B.R.

2009-01-01

Models of species' demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species' native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species' demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Visualization of Space-Time Ambiguities to be Explored by NASA GEC Mission with a Critique of Synthesized Measurements for Different GEC Mission Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, Jan J.

2003-01-01

The Grant supported research addressing the question of how the NASA Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) Mission called Geospace electrodynamics Connections (GEC) will resolve space-time structures as well as collect sufficient information to solve the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere- magnetosphere dynamics and electrodynamics. The approach adopted was to develop a high resolution in both space and time model of the ionosphere-thermosphere (I-T) over altitudes relevant to GEC, especially the deep-dipping phase. This I-T model was driven by a high- resolution model of magnetospheric-ionospheric (M-I) coupling electrodynamics. Such a model contains all the key parameters to be measured by GEC instrumentation, which in turn are the required parameters to resolve present-day problems in describing the energy and momentum coupling between the ionosphere-magnetosphere and ionosphere-thermosphere. This model database has been successfully created for one geophysical condition; winter, solar maximum with disturbed geophysical conditions, specifically a substorm. Using this data set, visualizations (movies) were created to contrast dynamics of the different measurable parameters. Specifically, the rapidly varying magnetospheric E and auroral electron precipitation versus the slower varying ionospheric F-region electron density, but rapidly responding E-region density.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations.

PubMed

Peel, A J; Pulliam, J R C; Luis, A D; Plowright, R K; O'Shea, T J; Hayman, D T S; Wood, J L N; Webb, C T; Restif, O

2014-07-07

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

PubMed Central

Peel, A. J.; Pulliam, J. R. C.; Luis, A. D.; Plowright, R. K.; O'Shea, T. J.; Hayman, D. T. S.; Wood, J. L. N.; Webb, C. T.; Restif, O.

2014-01-01

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction. PMID:24827436

Potential application of item-response theory to interpretation of medical codes in electronic patient records

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Electronic patient records are generally coded using extensive sets of codes but the significance of the utilisation of individual codes may be unclear. Item response theory (IRT) models are used to characterise the psychometric properties of items included in tests and questionnaires. This study asked whether the properties of medical codes in electronic patient records may be characterised through the application of item response theory models. Methods Data were provided by a cohort of 47,845 participants from 414 family practices in the UK General Practice Research Database (GPRD) with a first stroke between 1997 and 2006. Each eligible stroke code, out of a set of 202 OXMIS and Read codes, was coded as either recorded or not recorded for each participant. A two parameter IRT model was fitted using marginal maximum likelihood estimation. Estimated parameters from the model were considered to characterise each code with respect to the latent trait of stroke diagnosis. The location parameter is referred to as a calibration parameter, while the slope parameter is referred to as a discrimination parameter. Results There were 79,874 stroke code occurrences available for analysis. Utilisation of codes varied between family practices with intraclass correlation coefficients of up to 0.25 for the most frequently used codes. IRT analyses were restricted to 110 Read codes. Calibration and discrimination parameters were estimated for 77 (70%) codes that were endorsed for 1,942 stroke patients. Parameters were not estimated for the remaining more frequently used codes. Discrimination parameter values ranged from 0.67 to 2.78, while calibration parameters values ranged from 4.47 to 11.58. The two parameter model gave a better fit to the data than either the one- or three-parameter models. However, high chi-square values for about a fifth of the stroke codes were suggestive of poor item fit. Conclusion The application of item response theory models to coded electronic patient records might potentially contribute to identifying medical codes that offer poor discrimination or low calibration. This might indicate the need for improved coding sets or a requirement for improved clinical coding practice. However, in this study estimates were only obtained for a small proportion of participants and there was some evidence of poor model fit. There was also evidence of variation in the utilisation of codes between family practices raising the possibility that, in practice, properties of codes may vary for different coders. PMID:22176509

The Impact of Varied Discrimination Parameters on Mixed-Format Item Response Theory Model Selection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Chang, Wanchen; Dodd, Barbara G.

2013-01-01

Whittaker, Chang, and Dodd compared the performance of model selection criteria when selecting among mixed-format IRT models and found that the criteria did not perform adequately when selecting the more parameterized models. It was suggested by M. S. Johnson that the problems when selecting the more parameterized models may be because of the low…

Comparing Latent Structures of the Grade of Membership, Rasch, and Latent Class Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erosheva, Elena A.

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on model interpretation issues and employs a geometric approach to compare the potential value of using the Grade of Membership (GoM) model in representing population heterogeneity. We consider population heterogeneity manifolds generated by letting subject specific parameters vary over their natural range, while keeping other…

Multi-scale modeling of diffusion-controlled reactions in polymers: renormalisation of reactivity parameters.

PubMed

Everaers, Ralf; Rosa, Angelo

2012-01-07

The quantitative description of polymeric systems requires hierarchical modeling schemes, which bridge the gap between the atomic scale, relevant to chemical or biomolecular reactions, and the macromolecular scale, where the longest relaxation modes occur. Here, we use the formalism for diffusion-controlled reactions in polymers developed by Wilemski, Fixman, and Doi to discuss the renormalisation of the reactivity parameters in polymer models with varying spatial resolution. In particular, we show that the adjustments are independent of chain length. As a consequence, it is possible to match reactions times between descriptions with different resolution for relatively short reference chains and to use the coarse-grained model to make quantitative predictions for longer chains. We illustrate our results by a detailed discussion of the classical problem of chain cyclization in the Rouse model, which offers the simplest example of a multi-scale descriptions, if we consider differently discretized Rouse models for the same physical system. Moreover, we are able to explore different combinations of compact and non-compact diffusion in the local and large-scale dynamics by varying the embedding dimension.

Sensitivity analysis of helicopter IMC decelerating steep approach and landing performance to navigation system parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karmali, M. S.; Phatak, A. V.

1982-01-01

Results of a study to investigate, by means of a computer simulation, the performance sensitivity of helicopter IMC DSAL operations as a function of navigation system parameters are presented. A mathematical model representing generically a navigation system is formulated. The scenario simulated consists of a straight in helicopter approach to landing along a 6 deg glideslope. The deceleration magnitude chosen is 03g. The navigation model parameters are varied and the statistics of the total system errors (TSE) computed. These statistics are used to determine the critical navigation system parameters that affect the performance of the closed-loop navigation, guidance and control system of a UH-1H helicopter.

Pinatubo Emulation in Multiple Models (POEMs): co-ordinated experiments in the ISA-MIP model intercomparison activity component of the SPARC Stratospheric Sulphur and it's Role in Climate initiative (SSiRC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Lindsay; Mann, Graham; Carslaw, Ken; Toohey, Matthew; Aquila, Valentina

2016-04-01

The World Climate Research Program's SPARC initiative has a new international activity "Stratospheric Sulphur and its Role in Climate" (SSiRC) to better understand changes in stratospheric aerosol and precursor gaseous sulphur species. One component of SSiRC involves an intercomparison "ISA-MIP" of composition-climate models that simulate the stratospheric aerosol layer interactively. Within PoEMS each modelling group will run a "perturbed physics ensemble" (PPE) of interactive stratospheric aerosol (ISA) simulations of the Pinatubo eruption, varying several uncertain parameters associated with the eruption's SO2 emissions and model processes. A powerful new technique to quantify and attribute sources of uncertainty in complex global models is described by Lee et al. (2011, ACP). The analysis uses Gaussian emulation to derive a probability density function (pdf) of predicted quantities, essentially interpolating the PPE results in multi-dimensional parameter space. Once trained on the ensemble, a Monte Carlo simulation with the fast Gaussian emulator enabling a full variance-based sensitivity analysis. The approach has already been used effectively by Carslaw et al., (2013, Nature) to quantify the uncertainty in the cloud albedo effect forcing from a 3D global aerosol-microphysics model allowing to compare the sensitivy of different predicted quantities to uncertainties in natural and anthropogenic emissions types, and structural parameters in the models. Within ISA-MIP, each group will carry out a PPE of runs, with the subsequent analysis with the emulator assessing the uncertainty in the volcanic forcings predicted by each model. In this poster presentation we will give an outline of the "PoEMS" analysis, describing the uncertain parameters to be varied and the relevance to further understanding differences identified in previous international stratospheric aerosol assessments.

Applications of Monte Carlo method to nonlinear regression of rheological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sangmo; Lee, Junghaeng; Kim, Sihyun; Cho, Kwang Soo

2018-02-01

In rheological study, it is often to determine the parameters of rheological models from experimental data. Since both rheological data and values of the parameters vary in logarithmic scale and the number of the parameters is quite large, conventional method of nonlinear regression such as Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) method is usually ineffective. The gradient-based method such as LM is apt to be caught in local minima which give unphysical values of the parameters whenever the initial guess of the parameters is far from the global optimum. Although this problem could be solved by simulated annealing (SA), the Monte Carlo (MC) method needs adjustable parameter which could be determined in ad hoc manner. We suggest a simplified version of SA, a kind of MC methods which results in effective values of the parameters of most complicated rheological models such as the Carreau-Yasuda model of steady shear viscosity, discrete relaxation spectrum and zero-shear viscosity as a function of concentration and molecular weight.

Estimation and Identifiability of Model Parameters in Human Nociceptive Processing Using Yes-No Detection Responses to Electrocutaneous Stimulation.

PubMed

Yang, Huan; Meijer, Hil G E; Buitenweg, Jan R; van Gils, Stephan A

2016-01-01

Healthy or pathological states of nociceptive subsystems determine different stimulus-response relations measured from quantitative sensory testing. In turn, stimulus-response measurements may be used to assess these states. In a recently developed computational model, six model parameters characterize activation of nerve endings and spinal neurons. However, both model nonlinearity and limited information in yes-no detection responses to electrocutaneous stimuli challenge to estimate model parameters. Here, we address the question whether and how one can overcome these difficulties for reliable parameter estimation. First, we fit the computational model to experimental stimulus-response pairs by maximizing the likelihood. To evaluate the balance between model fit and complexity, i.e., the number of model parameters, we evaluate the Bayesian Information Criterion. We find that the computational model is better than a conventional logistic model regarding the balance. Second, our theoretical analysis suggests to vary the pulse width among applied stimuli as a necessary condition to prevent structural non-identifiability. In addition, the numerically implemented profile likelihood approach reveals structural and practical non-identifiability. Our model-based approach with integration of psychophysical measurements can be useful for a reliable assessment of states of the nociceptive system.

Diagnosing holographic type dark energy models with the Statefinder hierarchy, composite null diagnostic and w- w' pair

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ze; Wang, Shuang

2018-03-01

The main purpose of this work is to distinguish various holographic type dark energy (DE) models, including the ΛHDE, HDE, NADE, and RDE model, by using various diagnostic tools. The first diagnostic tool is the Statefinder hierarchy, in which the evolution of Statefinder hierarchy parmeter S (1) 3( z) and S (1) 4( z) are studied. The second is composite null diagnostic (CND), in which the trajectories of { S (1) 3, ɛ} and { S (1) 4, ɛ} are investigated, where ɛ is the fractional growth parameter. The last is w-w' analysis, where w is the equation of state for DE and the prime denotes derivative with respect to ln a. In the analysis we consider two cases: varying current fractional DE density Ω de0 and varying DE model parameter C. We find that: (1) both the Statefinder hierarchy and the CND have qualitative impact on ΛHDE, but only have quantitative impact on HDE. (2) S (1) 4 can lead to larger differences than S (1) 3, while the CND pair has a stronger ability to distinguish different models than the Statefinder hierarchy. (3) For the case of varying C, the { w,w'} pair has qualitative impact on ΛHDE; for the case of varying Ω de0, the { w, w'} pair only has quantitative impact; these results are different from the cases of HDE, RDE, and NADE, in which the {w,w'} pair only has quantitative impact on these models. In conclusion, compared with HDE, RDE, and NADE, the ΛHDE model can be easily distinguished by using these diagnostic tools.

Combined non-parametric and parametric approach for identification of time-variant systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dziedziech, Kajetan; Czop, Piotr; Staszewski, Wieslaw J.; Uhl, Tadeusz

2018-03-01

Identification of systems, structures and machines with variable physical parameters is a challenging task especially when time-varying vibration modes are involved. The paper proposes a new combined, two-step - i.e. non-parametric and parametric - modelling approach in order to determine time-varying vibration modes based on input-output measurements. Single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) vibration modes from multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) non-parametric system representation are extracted in the first step with the use of time-frequency wavelet-based filters. The second step involves time-varying parametric representation of extracted modes with the use of recursive linear autoregressive-moving-average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) models. The combined approach is demonstrated using system identification analysis based on the experimental mass-varying MDOF frame-like structure subjected to random excitation. The results show that the proposed combined method correctly captures the dynamics of the analysed structure, using minimum a priori information on the model.

Sensorless Modeling of Varying Pulse Width Modulator Resolutions in Three-Phase Induction Motors

PubMed Central

Marko, Matthew David; Shevach, Glenn

2017-01-01

A sensorless algorithm was developed to predict rotor speeds in an electric three-phase induction motor. This sensorless model requires a measurement of the stator currents and voltages, and the rotor speed is predicted accurately without any mechanical measurement of the rotor speed. A model of an electric vehicle undergoing acceleration was built, and the sensorless prediction of the simulation rotor speed was determined to be robust even in the presence of fluctuating motor parameters and significant sensor errors. Studies were conducted for varying pulse width modulator resolutions, and the sensorless model was accurate for all resolutions of sinusoidal voltage functions. PMID:28076418

Sensorless Modeling of Varying Pulse Width Modulator Resolutions in Three-Phase Induction Motors.

PubMed

Marko, Matthew David; Shevach, Glenn

2017-01-01

A sensorless algorithm was developed to predict rotor speeds in an electric three-phase induction motor. This sensorless model requires a measurement of the stator currents and voltages, and the rotor speed is predicted accurately without any mechanical measurement of the rotor speed. A model of an electric vehicle undergoing acceleration was built, and the sensorless prediction of the simulation rotor speed was determined to be robust even in the presence of fluctuating motor parameters and significant sensor errors. Studies were conducted for varying pulse width modulator resolutions, and the sensorless model was accurate for all resolutions of sinusoidal voltage functions.

Mathematical Models of the Common-Source and Common-Gate Amplifiers using a Metal-Ferroelectric-Semiconductor Field effect Transistor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunt, Mitchell; Sayyah, Rana; Mitchell, Cody; Laws, Crystal; MacLeod, Todd C.; Ho, Fat D.

2013-01-01

Mathematical models of the common-source and common-gate amplifiers using metal-ferroelectric- semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs) are developed in this paper. The models are compared against data collected with MOSFETs of varying channel lengths and widths, and circuit parameters such as biasing conditions are varied as well. Considerations are made for the capacitance formed by the ferroelectric layer present between the gate and substrate of the transistors. Comparisons between the modeled and measured data are presented in depth as well as differences and advantages as compared to the performance of each circuit using a MOSFET.

Analysis of stationary and dynamic factors affecting highway accident occurrence: A dynamic correlated grouped random parameters binary logit approach.

PubMed

Fountas, Grigorios; Sarwar, Md Tawfiq; Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Blatt, Alan; Majka, Kevin

2018-04-01

Traditional accident analysis typically explores non-time-varying (stationary) factors that affect accident occurrence on roadway segments. However, the impact of time-varying (dynamic) factors is not thoroughly investigated. This paper seeks to simultaneously identify pre-crash stationary and dynamic factors of accident occurrence, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using highly disaggregate information for the potential dynamic factors, and aggregate data for the traditional stationary elements, a dynamic binary random parameters (mixed) logit framework is employed. With this approach, the dynamic nature of weather-related, and driving- and pavement-condition information is jointly investigated with traditional roadway geometric and traffic characteristics. To additionally account for the combined effect of the dynamic and stationary factors on the accident occurrence, the developed random parameters logit framework allows for possible correlations among the random parameters. The analysis is based on crash and non-crash observations between 2011 and 2013, drawn from urban and rural highway segments in the state of Washington. The findings show that the proposed methodological framework can account for both stationary and dynamic factors affecting accident occurrence probabilities, for panel effects, for unobserved heterogeneity through the use of random parameters, and for possible correlation among the latter. The comparative evaluation among the correlated grouped random parameters, the uncorrelated random parameters logit models, and their fixed parameters logit counterpart, demonstrate the potential of the random parameters modeling, in general, and the benefits of the correlated grouped random parameters approach, specifically, in terms of statistical fit and explanatory power. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Drag Characteristics of Several Towed Decelerator Models at Mach 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miserentino, Robert; Bohon, Herman L.

1970-01-01

An investigation has been made to determine the possibility of using toroid-membrane and wide-angle conical shapes as towed decelerators. Parameter variations were investigated which might render toroid-membrane models and wide-angle- cone models stable without loss of the high drag coefficients obtainable with sting-mounted models. The parameters varied included location of center of gravity, location of the pivot between the towline and the model, and configuration modifications of the aft end as the addition of a corner radius and the addition of a skirt. The toroid membrane can be made into a stable towed decelerator with a suitable configuration modification of the aft end.

A Bayesian approach to tracking patients having changing pharmacokinetic parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayard, David S.; Jelliffe, Roger W.

2004-01-01

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

Back Propagation Neural Network Model for Predicting the Performance of Immobilized Cell Biofilters Handling Gas-Phase Hydrogen Sulphide and Ammonia

PubMed Central

Rene, Eldon R.; López, M. Estefanía; Kim, Jung Hoon; Park, Hung Suck

2013-01-01

Lab scale studies were conducted to evaluate the performance of two simultaneously operated immobilized cell biofilters (ICBs) for removing hydrogen sulphide (H2S) and ammonia (NH3) from gas phase. The removal efficiencies (REs) of the biofilter treating H2S varied from 50 to 100% at inlet loading rates (ILRs) varying up to 13 g H2S/m3 ·h, while the NH3 biofilter showed REs ranging from 60 to 100% at ILRs varying between 0.5 and 5.5 g NH3/m3 ·h. An application of the back propagation neural network (BPNN) to predict the performance parameter, namely, RE (%) using this experimental data is presented in this paper. The input parameters to the network were unit flow (per min) and inlet concentrations (ppmv), respectively. The accuracy of BPNN-based model predictions were evaluated by providing the trained network topology with a test dataset and also by calculating the regression coefficient (R 2) values. The results from this predictive modeling work showed that BPNNs were able to predict the RE of both the ICBs efficiently. PMID:24307999

a Numerical Investigation of the Jamming Transition in Traffic Flow on Diluted Planar Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achler, Gabriele; Barra, Adriano

In order to develop a toy model for car's traffic in cities, in this paper we analyze, by means of numerical simulations, the transition among fluid regimes and a congested jammed phase of the flow of kinetically constrained hard spheres in planar random networks similar to urban roads. In order to explore as timescales as possible, at a microscopic level we implement an event driven dynamics as the infinite time limit of a class of already existing model (Follow the Leader) on an Erdos-Renyi two-dimensional graph, the crossroads being accounted by standard Kirchoff density conservations. We define a dynamical order parameter as the ratio among the moving spheres versus the total number and by varying two control parameters (density of the spheres and coordination number of the network) we study the phase transition. At a mesoscopic level it respects an, again suitable, adapted version of the Lighthill-Whitham model, which belongs to the fluid-dynamical approach to the problem. At a macroscopic level, the model seems to display a continuous transition from a fluid phase to a jammed phase when varying the density of the spheres (the amount of cars in a city-like scenario) and a discontinuous jump when varying the connectivity of the underlying network.

MRAC Control with Prior Model Knowledge for Asymmetric Damaged Aircraft

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jing

2015-01-01

This paper develops a novel state-tracking multivariable model reference adaptive control (MRAC) technique utilizing prior knowledge of plant models to recover control performance of an asymmetric structural damaged aircraft. A modification of linear model representation is given. With prior knowledge on structural damage, a polytope linear parameter varying (LPV) model is derived to cover all concerned damage conditions. An MRAC method is developed for the polytope model, of which the stability and asymptotic error convergence are theoretically proved. The proposed technique reduces the number of parameters to be adapted and thus decreases computational cost and requires less input information. The method is validated by simulations on NASA generic transport model (GTM) with damage. PMID:26180839

The Effect of Roughness Model on Scattering Properties of Ice Crystals.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geogdzhayev, Igor V.; Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan

2016-01-01

We compare stochastic models of microscale surface roughness assuming uniform and Weibull distributions of crystal facet tilt angles to calculate scattering by roughened hexagonal ice crystals using the geometric optics (GO) approximation. Both distributions are determined by similar roughness parameters, while the Weibull model depends on the additional shape parameter. Calculations were performed for two visible wavelengths (864 nm and 410 nm) for roughness values between 0.2 and 0.7 and Weibull shape parameters between 0 and 1.0 for crystals with aspect ratios of 0.21, 1 and 4.8. For this range of parameters we find that, for a given roughness level, varying the Weibull shape parameter can change the asymmetry parameter by up to about 0.05. The largest effect of the shape parameter variation on the phase function is found in the backscattering region, while the degree of linear polarization is most affected at the side-scattering angles. For high roughness, scattering properties calculated using the uniform and Weibull models are in relatively close agreement for a given roughness parameter, especially when a Weibull shape parameter of 0.75 is used. For smaller roughness values, a shape parameter close to unity provides a better agreement. Notable differences are observed in the phase function over the scattering angle range from 5deg to 20deg, where the uniform roughness model produces a plateau while the Weibull model does not.

Population Synthesis of Radio and Y-ray Normal, Isolated Pulsars Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billman, Caleb; Gonthier, P. L.; Harding, A. K.

2013-04-01

We present preliminary results of a population statistics study of normal pulsars (NP) from the Galactic disk using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques optimized according to two different methods. The first method compares the detected and simulated cumulative distributions of series of pulsar characteristics, varying the model parameters to maximize the overall agreement. The advantage of this method is that the distributions do not have to be binned. The other method varies the model parameters to maximize the log of the maximum likelihood obtained from the comparisons of four-two dimensional distributions of radio and γ-ray pulsar characteristics. The advantage of this method is that it provides a confidence region of the model parameter space. The computer code simulates neutron stars at birth using Monte Carlo procedures and evolves them to the present assuming initial spatial, kick velocity, magnetic field, and period distributions. Pulsars are spun down to the present and given radio and γ-ray emission characteristics, implementing an empirical γ-ray luminosity model. A comparison group of radio NPs detected in ten-radio surveys is used to normalize the simulation, adjusting the model radio luminosity to match a birth rate. We include the Fermi pulsars in the forthcoming second pulsar catalog. We present preliminary results comparing the simulated and detected distributions of radio and γ-ray NPs along with a confidence region in the parameter space of the assumed models. We express our gratitude for the generous support of the National Science Foundation (REU and RUI), Fermi Guest Investigator Program and the NASA Astrophysics Theory and Fundamental Program.

Aerodynamic parameter estimation via Fourier modulating function techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pearson, A. E.

1995-01-01

Parameter estimation algorithms are developed in the frequency domain for systems modeled by input/output ordinary differential equations. The approach is based on Shinbrot's method of moment functionals utilizing Fourier based modulating functions. Assuming white measurement noises for linear multivariable system models, an adaptive weighted least squares algorithm is developed which approximates a maximum likelihood estimate and cannot be biased by unknown initial or boundary conditions in the data owing to a special property attending Shinbrot-type modulating functions. Application is made to perturbation equation modeling of the longitudinal and lateral dynamics of a high performance aircraft using flight-test data. Comparative studies are included which demonstrate potential advantages of the algorithm relative to some well established techniques for parameter identification. Deterministic least squares extensions of the approach are made to the frequency transfer function identification problem for linear systems and to the parameter identification problem for a class of nonlinear-time-varying differential system models.

Radar altimeter waveform modeled parameter recovery. [SEASAT-1 data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Satellite-borne radar altimeters include waveform sampling gates providing point samples of the transmitted radar pulse after its scattering from the ocean's surface. Averages of the waveform sampler data can be fitted by varying parameters in a model mean return waveform. The theoretical waveform model used is described as well as a general iterative nonlinear least squares procedures used to obtain estimates of parameters characterizing the modeled waveform for SEASAT-1 data. The six waveform parameters recovered by the fitting procedure are: (1) amplitude; (2) time origin, or track point; (3) ocean surface rms roughness; (4) noise baseline; (5) ocean surface skewness; and (6) altitude or off-nadir angle. Additional practical processing considerations are addressed and FORTRAN source listing for subroutines used in the waveform fitting are included. While the description is for the Seasat-1 altimeter waveform data analysis, the work can easily be generalized and extended to other radar altimeter systems.

Developing a scalable model of recombinant protein yield from Pichia pastoris: the influence of culture conditions, biomass and induction regime

PubMed Central

Holmes, William J; Darby, Richard AJ; Wilks, Martin DB; Smith, Rodney; Bill, Roslyn M

2009-01-01

Background The optimisation and scale-up of process conditions leading to high yields of recombinant proteins is an enduring bottleneck in the post-genomic sciences. Typical experiments rely on varying selected parameters through repeated rounds of trial-and-error optimisation. To rationalise this, several groups have recently adopted the 'design of experiments' (DoE) approach frequently used in industry. Studies have focused on parameters such as medium composition, nutrient feed rates and induction of expression in shake flasks or bioreactors, as well as oxygen transfer rates in micro-well plates. In this study we wanted to generate a predictive model that described small-scale screens and to test its scalability to bioreactors. Results Here we demonstrate how the use of a DoE approach in a multi-well mini-bioreactor permitted the rapid establishment of high yielding production phase conditions that could be transferred to a 7 L bioreactor. Using green fluorescent protein secreted from Pichia pastoris, we derived a predictive model of protein yield as a function of the three most commonly-varied process parameters: temperature, pH and the percentage of dissolved oxygen in the culture medium. Importantly, when yield was normalised to culture volume and density, the model was scalable from mL to L working volumes. By increasing pre-induction biomass accumulation, model-predicted yields were further improved. Yield improvement was most significant, however, on varying the fed-batch induction regime to minimise methanol accumulation so that the productivity of the culture increased throughout the whole induction period. These findings suggest the importance of matching the rate of protein production with the host metabolism. Conclusion We demonstrate how a rational, stepwise approach to recombinant protein production screens can reduce process development time. PMID:19570229

Robustness of a cellular automata model for the HIV infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueirêdo, P. H.; Coutinho, S.; Zorzenon dos Santos, R. M.

2008-11-01

An investigation was conducted to study the robustness of the results obtained from the cellular automata model which describes the spread of the HIV infection within lymphoid tissues [R.M. Zorzenon dos Santos, S. Coutinho, Phys. Rev. Lett. 87 (2001) 168102]. The analysis focused on the dynamic behavior of the model when defined in lattices with different symmetries and dimensionalities. The results illustrated that the three-phase dynamics of the planar models suffered minor changes in relation to lattice symmetry variations and, while differences were observed regarding dimensionality changes, qualitative behavior was preserved. A further investigation was conducted into primary infection and sensitiveness of the latency period to variations of the model’s stochastic parameters over wide ranging values. The variables characterizing primary infection and the latency period exhibited power-law behavior when the stochastic parameters varied over a few orders of magnitude. The power-law exponents were approximately the same when lattice symmetry varied, but there was a significant variation when dimensionality changed from two to three. The dynamics of the three-dimensional model was also shown to be insensitive to variations of the deterministic parameters related to cell resistance to the infection, and the necessary time lag to mount the specific immune response to HIV variants. The robustness of the model demonstrated in this work reinforce that its basic hypothesis are consistent with the three-stage dynamic of the HIV infection observed in patients.

The evaluation of distributed damage in concrete based on sinusoidal modeling of the ultrasonic response.

PubMed

Sepehrinezhad, Alireza; Toufigh, Vahab

2018-05-25

Ultrasonic wave attenuation is an effective descriptor of distributed damage in inhomogeneous materials. Methods developed to measure wave attenuation have the potential to provide an in-site evaluation of existing concrete structures insofar as they are accurate and time-efficient. In this study, material classification and distributed damage evaluation were investigated based on the sinusoidal modeling of the response from the through-transmission ultrasonic tests on polymer concrete specimens. The response signal was modeled as single or the sum of damping sinusoids. Due to the inhomogeneous nature of concrete materials, model parameters may vary from one specimen to another. Therefore, these parameters are not known in advance and should be estimated while the response signal is being received. The modeling procedure used in this study involves a data-adaptive algorithm to estimate the parameters online. Data-adaptive algorithms are used due to a lack of knowledge of the model parameters. The damping factor was estimated as a descriptor of the distributed damage. The results were compared in two different cases as follows: (1) constant excitation frequency with varying concrete mixtures and (2) constant mixture with varying excitation frequencies. The specimens were also loaded up to their ultimate compressive strength to investigate the effect of distributed damage in the response signal. The results of the estimation indicated that the damping was highly sensitive to the change in material inhomogeneity, even in comparable mixtures. In addition to the proposed method, three methods were employed to compare the results based on their accuracy in the classification of materials and the evaluation of the distributed damage. It is shown that the estimated damping factor is not only sensitive to damage in the final stages of loading, but it is also applicable in evaluating micro damages in the earlier stages providing a reliable descriptor of damage. In addition, the modified amplitude ratio method is introduced as an improvement of the classical method. The proposed methods were validated to be effective descriptors of distributed damage. The presented models were also in good agreement with the experimental data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of parameter values on the oscillation sensitivities of two p53-Mdm2 models.

PubMed

Cuba, Christian E; Valle, Alexander R; Ayala-Charca, Giancarlo; Villota, Elizabeth R; Coronado, Alberto M

2015-09-01

Biomolecular networks that present oscillatory behavior are ubiquitous in nature. While some design principles for robust oscillations have been identified, it is not well understood how these oscillations are affected when the kinetic parameters are constantly changing or are not precisely known, as often occurs in cellular environments. Many models of diverse complexity level, for systems such as circadian rhythms, cell cycle or the p53 network, have been proposed. Here we assess the influence of hundreds of different parameter sets on the sensitivities of two configurations of a well-known oscillatory system, the p53 core network. We show that, for both models and all parameter sets, the parameter related to the p53 positive feedback, i.e. self-promotion, is the only one that presents sizeable sensitivities on extrema, periods and delay. Moreover, varying the parameter set values to change the dynamical characteristics of the response is more restricted in the simple model, whereas the complex model shows greater tunability. These results highlight the importance of the presence of specific network patterns, in addition to the role of parameter values, when we want to characterize oscillatory biochemical systems.

Dynamical compensation and structural identifiability of biological models: Analysis, implications, and reconciliation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The concept of dynamical compensation has been recently introduced to describe the ability of a biological system to keep its output dynamics unchanged in the face of varying parameters. However, the original definition of dynamical compensation amounts to lack of structural identifiability. This is relevant if model parameters need to be estimated, as is often the case in biological modelling. Care should we taken when using an unidentifiable model to extract biological insight: the estimated values of structurally unidentifiable parameters are meaningless, and model predictions about unmeasured state variables can be wrong. Taking this into account, we explore alternative definitions of dynamical compensation that do not necessarily imply structural unidentifiability. Accordingly, we show different ways in which a model can be made identifiable while exhibiting dynamical compensation. Our analyses enable the use of the new concept of dynamical compensation in the context of parameter identification, and reconcile it with the desirable property of structural identifiability. PMID:29186132

A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

PubMed

Perperoglou, Aris

2016-12-10

Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Slow-Slip Phenomena Represented by the One-Dimensional Burridge-Knopoff Model of Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, Hikaru; Yamamoto, Maho; Ueda, Yushi

2018-05-01

Slow-slip phenomena, including afterslips and silent earthquakes, are studied using a one-dimensional Burridge-Knopoff model that obeys the rate-and-state dependent friction law. By varying only a few model parameters, this simple model allows reproducing a variety of seismic slips within a single framework, including main shocks, precursory nucleation processes, afterslips, and silent earthquakes.

Plackett-Burman experimental design for bacterial cellulose-silica composites synthesis.

PubMed

Guzun, Anicuta Stoica; Stroescu, Marta; Jinga, Sorin Ion; Voicu, Georgeta; Grumezescu, Alexandru Mihai; Holban, Alina Maria

2014-09-01

Bacterial cellulose-silica hybrid composites were prepared starting from wet bacterial cellulose (BC) membranes using Stöber reaction. The structure and surface morphology of hybrid composites were examined by FTIR and SEM. The SEM pictures revealed that the silica particles are attached to BC fibrils and are well dispersed in the BC matrix. The influence of silica particles upon BC crystallinity was studied using XRD analysis. Thermogravimetric (TG) analysis showed that the composites are stable up to 300°C. A Plackett-Burman design was applied in order to investigate the influence of process parameters upon silica particle sizes and silica content of BC-silica composites. The statistical model predicted that it is possible for silica particles size to vary the synthesis parameters in order to obtain silica particles deposed on BC membranes in the range from 34.5 to 500 nm, the significant parameters being ammonia concentration, reaction time and temperature. The silica content also varies depending on process parameters, the statistical model predicting that the most influential parameters are water-tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) ratio and reaction temperature. The antimicrobial behavior on Staphylococcus aureus of BC-silica composites functionalized with usnic acid (UA) was also studied, in order to create improved surfaces with antiadherence and anti-biofilm properties. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

WSN system design by using an innovative neural network model to perform thermals forecasting in a urban canyon scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuseppina, Nicolosi; Salvatore, Tirrito

2015-12-01

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) were studied by researchers in order to manage Heating, Ventilating and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) indoor systems. WSN can be useful specially to regulate indoor confort in a urban canyon scenario, where the thermal parameters vary rapidly, influenced by outdoor climate changing. This paper shows an innovative neural network approach, by using WSN data collected, in order to forecast the indoor temperature to varying the outdoor conditions based on climate parameters and boundary conditions typically of urban canyon. In this work more attention will be done to influence of traffic jam and number of vehicles in queue.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saha, Kaushik; Som, Sibendu; Battistoni, Michele

Flash boiling is known to be a common phenomenon for gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine sprays. The Homogeneous Relaxation Model has been adopted in many recent numerical studies for predicting cavitation and flash boiling. The Homogeneous Relaxation Model is assessed in this study. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters has been documented to infer the driving factors for the flash-boiling predictions. The model parameters have been varied over a range and the differences in predictions of the extent of flashing have been studied. Apart from flashing in the near nozzle regions, mild cavitation is also predicted inside the gasoline injectors.more » The variation in the predicted time scales through the model parameters for predicting these two different thermodynamic phenomena (cavitation, flash) have been elaborated in this study. Turbulence model effects have also been investigated by comparing predictions from the standard and Re-Normalization Group (RNG) k-ε turbulence models.« less

Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Methane Using Bayesian Constrained Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Errickson, F. C.; Anthoff, D.; Keller, K.

2016-12-01

Social cost estimates of greenhouse gases are important for the design of sound climate policies and are also plagued by uncertainty. One major source of uncertainty stems from the simplified representation of the climate system used in the integrated assessment models that provide these social cost estimates. We explore how uncertainty over the social cost of methane varies with the way physical processes and feedbacks in the methane cycle are modeled by (i) coupling three different methane models to a simple climate model, (ii) using MCMC to perform a Bayesian calibration of the three coupled climate models that simulates direct sampling from the joint posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters, and (iii) producing probabilistic climate projections that are then used to calculate the Social Cost of Methane (SCM) with the DICE and FUND integrated assessment models. We find that including a temperature feedback in the methane cycle acts as an additional constraint during the calibration process and results in a correlation between the tropospheric lifetime of methane and several climate model parameters. This correlation is not seen in the models lacking this feedback. Several of the estimated marginal pdfs of the model parameters also exhibit different distributional shapes and expected values depending on the methane model used. As a result, probabilistic projections of the climate system out to the year 2300 exhibit different levels of uncertainty and magnitudes of warming for each of the three models under an RCP8.5 scenario. We find these differences in climate projections result in differences in the distributions and expected values for our estimates of the SCM. We also examine uncertainty about the SCM by performing a Monte Carlo analysis using a distribution for the climate sensitivity while holding all other climate model parameters constant. Our SCM estimates using the Bayesian calibration are lower and exhibit less uncertainty about extremely high values in the right tail of the distribution compared to the Monte Carlo approach. This finding has important climate policy implications and suggests previous work that accounts for climate model uncertainty by only varying the climate sensitivity parameter may overestimate the SCM.

A fully Galerkin method for the recovery of stiffness and damping parameters in Euler-Bernoulli beam models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, R. C.; Bowers, K. L.

1991-01-01

A fully Sinc-Galerkin method for recovering the spatially varying stiffness and damping parameters in Euler-Bernoulli beam models is presented. The forward problems are discretized with a sinc basis in both the spatial and temporal domains thus yielding an approximate solution which converges exponentially and is valid on the infinite time interval. Hence the method avoids the time-stepping which is characteristic of many of the forward schemes which are used in parameter recovery algorithms. Tikhonov regularization is used to stabilize the resulting inverse problem, and the L-curve method for determining an appropriate value of the regularization parameter is briefly discussed. Numerical examples are given which demonstrate the applicability of the method for both individual and simultaneous recovery of the material parameters.

A critical state model for mudrock behavior at high stress levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidari, M.; Nikolinakou, M. A.; Flemings, P. B.

2016-12-01

Recent experimental work has documented that the compression behavior, friction angle, and lateral stress ratio (k0) of mudrocks vary over the stress range of 1 to 100 MPa. We integrate these observations into a critical state model. The internal friction angle and the slope of the compression curve are key parameters in a mudrock critical state model. Published models assume that these parameters do not depend on the stress level, and hence predict lateral stress and normalized strength ratios that do not change with the stress level. However, recent experimental data on resedimented mudrock samples from Eugene Island, Gulf of Mexico, demonstrate that all these parameters vary considerably with the stress level (Casey and Germaine, 2013; Casey et al., 2015). To represent these variations, we develop an enhanced critical state model that uses a stress-level-dependent friction angle and a curvilinear compression curve. We show that this enhanced model predicts the observed variations of the lateral stress and strength ratios. The successful performance of our model indicates that the critical state theory developed for soil can predict mudrock nonlinear behavior at high stress levels and thus can be used in modeling geologic systems. Casey, B., Germaine, J., 2013. Stress Dependence of Shear Strength in Fine-Grained Soils and Correlations with Liquid Limit. J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 139, 1709-1717. Casey, B., Germaine, J., Flemings, P.B., Fahy, B.P., 2015. Estimating horizontal stresses for mudrocks under one-dimensional compression. Mar. Pet. Geol. 65, 178-186.

Navy High-Strength Steel Corrosion-Fatigue Modeling Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

interest. In the global analysis, the axial loading and residual stress (via the temperature profile discussed in the previous section) were applied to...developed based on observa- tions from analyses of axial load components with sinusoidally varying surface geometries. These observations indicated that...profile parameters (height and wavelength in each surface direction) and the applied axial loading . Stress Varies Sinusoidally 180° Out of Phase

A simulation to study the feasibility of improving the temporal resolution of LAGEOS geodynamic solutions by using a sequential process noise filter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, Brian Davis

1995-01-01

A key drawback to estimating geodetic and geodynamic parameters over time based on satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations is the inability to accurately model all the forces acting on the satellite. Errors associated with the observations and the measurement model can detract from the estimates as well. These 'model errors' corrupt the solutions obtained from the satellite orbit determination process. Dynamical models for satellite motion utilize known geophysical parameters to mathematically detail the forces acting on the satellite. However, these parameters, while estimated as constants, vary over time. These temporal variations must be accounted for in some fashion to maintain meaningful solutions. The primary goal of this study is to analyze the feasibility of using a sequential process noise filter for estimating geodynamic parameters over time from the Laser Geodynamics Satellite (LAGEOS) SLR data. This evaluation is achieved by first simulating a sequence of realistic LAGEOS laser ranging observations. These observations are generated using models with known temporal variations in several geodynamic parameters (along track drag and the J(sub 2), J(sub 3), J(sub 4), and J(sub 5) geopotential coefficients). A standard (non-stochastic) filter and a stochastic process noise filter are then utilized to estimate the model parameters from the simulated observations. The standard non-stochastic filter estimates these parameters as constants over consecutive fixed time intervals. Thus, the resulting solutions contain constant estimates of parameters that vary in time which limits the temporal resolution and accuracy of the solution. The stochastic process noise filter estimates these parameters as correlated process noise variables. As a result, the stochastic process noise filter has the potential to estimate the temporal variations more accurately since the constraint of estimating the parameters as constants is eliminated. A comparison of the temporal resolution of solutions obtained from standard sequential filtering methods and process noise sequential filtering methods shows that the accuracy is significantly improved using process noise. The results show that the positional accuracy of the orbit is improved as well. The temporal resolution of the resulting solutions are detailed, and conclusions drawn about the results. Benefits and drawbacks of using process noise filtering in this type of scenario are also identified.

Prediction of mortality rates using a model with stochastic parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Chon Sern; Pooi, Ah Hin

2016-10-01

Prediction of future mortality rates is crucial to insurance companies because they face longevity risks while providing retirement benefits to a population whose life expectancy is increasing. In the past literature, a time series model based on multivariate power-normal distribution has been applied on mortality data from the United States for the years 1933 till 2000 to forecast the future mortality rates for the years 2001 till 2010. In this paper, a more dynamic approach based on the multivariate time series will be proposed where the model uses stochastic parameters that vary with time. The resulting prediction intervals obtained using the model with stochastic parameters perform better because apart from having good ability in covering the observed future mortality rates, they also tend to have distinctly shorter interval lengths.

Fitting the Rasch Model to Account for Variation in Item Discrimination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weitzman, R. A.

2009-01-01

Building on the Kelley and Gulliksen versions of classical test theory, this article shows that a logistic model having only a single item parameter can account for varying item discrimination, as well as difficulty, by using item-test correlations to adjust incorrect-correct (0-1) item responses prior to an initial model fit. The fit occurs…

Parameter Variability and Distributional Assumptions in the Diffusion Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ratcliff, Roger

2013-01-01

If the diffusion model (Ratcliff & McKoon, 2008) is to account for the relative speeds of correct responses and errors, it is necessary that the components of processing identified by the model vary across the trials of a task. In standard applications, the rate at which information is accumulated by the diffusion process is assumed to be normally…

Determinants of Standard Errors of MLEs in Confirmatory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yuan, Ke-Hai; Cheng, Ying; Zhang, Wei

2010-01-01

This paper studies changes of standard errors (SE) of the normal-distribution-based maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) for confirmatory factor models as model parameters vary. Using logical analysis, simplified formulas and numerical verification, monotonic relationships between SEs and factor loadings as well as unique variances are found.…

Assessing the applicability of WRF optimal parameters under the different precipitation simulations in the Greater Beijing Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, Zhenhua; Duan, Qingyun; Wang, Chen; Ye, Aizhong; Miao, Chiyuan; Gong, Wei

2018-03-01

Forecasting skills of the complex weather and climate models have been improved by tuning the sensitive parameters that exert the greatest impact on simulated results based on more effective optimization methods. However, whether the optimal parameter values are still work when the model simulation conditions vary, which is a scientific problem deserving of study. In this study, a highly-effective optimization method, adaptive surrogate model-based optimization (ASMO), was firstly used to tune nine sensitive parameters from four physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to obtain better summer precipitation forecasting over the Greater Beijing Area in China. Then, to assess the applicability of the optimal parameter values, simulation results from the WRF model with default and optimal parameter values were compared across precipitation events, boundary conditions, spatial scales, and physical processes in the Greater Beijing Area. The summer precipitation events from 6 years were used to calibrate and evaluate the optimal parameter values of WRF model. Three boundary data and two spatial resolutions were adopted to evaluate the superiority of the calibrated optimal parameters to default parameters under the WRF simulations with different boundary conditions and spatial resolutions, respectively. Physical interpretations of the optimal parameters indicating how to improve precipitation simulation results were also examined. All the results showed that the optimal parameters obtained by ASMO are superior to the default parameters for WRF simulations for predicting summer precipitation in the Greater Beijing Area because the optimal parameters are not constrained by specific precipitation events, boundary conditions, and spatial resolutions. The optimal values of the nine parameters were determined from 127 parameter samples using the ASMO method, which showed that the ASMO method is very highly-efficient for optimizing WRF model parameters.

Calibration and validation of a general infiltration model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Ranjan Kumar, Shashi; Singh, Vijay P.

1999-08-01

A general infiltration model proposed by Singh and Yu (1990) was calibrated and validated using a split sampling approach for 191 sets of infiltration data observed in the states of Minnesota and Georgia in the USA. Of the five model parameters, fc (the final infiltration rate), So (the available storage space) and exponent n were found to be more predictable than the other two parameters: m (exponent) and a (proportionality factor). A critical examination of the general model revealed that it is related to the Soil Conservation Service (1956) curve number (SCS-CN) method and its parameter So is equivalent to the potential maximum retention of the SCS-CN method and is, in turn, found to be a function of soil sorptivity and hydraulic conductivity. The general model was found to describe infiltration rate with time varying curve number.

Time-Varying Delay Estimation Applied to the Surface Electromyography Signals Using the Parametric Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luu, Gia Thien; Boualem, Abdelbassit; Duy, Tran Trung; Ravier, Philippe; Butteli, Olivier

Muscle Fiber Conduction Velocity (MFCV) can be calculated from the time delay between the surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals recorded by electrodes aligned with the fiber direction. In order to take into account the non-stationarity during the dynamic contraction (the most daily life situation) of the data, the developed methods have to consider that the MFCV changes over time, which induces time-varying delays and the data is non-stationary (change of Power Spectral Density (PSD)). In this paper, the problem of TVD estimation is considered using a parametric method. First, the polynomial model of TVD has been proposed. Then, the TVD model parameters are estimated by using a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) strategy solved by a deterministic optimization technique (Newton) and stochastic optimization technique, called simulated annealing (SA). The performance of the two techniques is also compared. We also derive two appropriate Cramer-Rao Lower Bounds (CRLB) for the estimated TVD model parameters and for the TVD waveforms. Monte-Carlo simulation results show that the estimation of both the model parameters and the TVD function is unbiased and that the variance obtained is close to the derived CRBs. A comparison with non-parametric approaches of the TVD estimation is also presented and shows the superiority of the method proposed.

Global sensitivity analysis of a local water balance model predicting evaporation, water yield and drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speich, Matthias; Zappa, Massimiliano; Lischke, Heike

2017-04-01

Evaporation and transpiration affect both catchment water yield and the growing conditions for vegetation. They are driven by climate, but also depend on vegetation, soil and land surface properties. In hydrological and land surface models, these properties may be included as constant parameters, or as state variables. Often, little is known about the effect of these variables on model outputs. In the present study, the effect of surface properties on evaporation was assessed in a global sensitivity analysis. To this effect, we developed a simple local water balance model combining state-of-the-art process formulations for evaporation, transpiration and soil water balance. The model is vertically one-dimensional, and the relative simplicity of its process formulations makes it suitable for integration in a spatially distributed model at regional scale. The main model outputs are annual total evaporation (TE, i.e. the sum of transpiration, soil evaporation and interception), and a drought index (DI), which is based on the ratio of actual and potential transpiration. This index represents the growing conditions for forest trees. The sensitivity analysis was conducted in two steps. First, a screening analysis was applied to identify unimportant parameters out of an initial set of 19 parameters. In a second step, a statistical meta-model was applied to a sample of 800 model runs, in which the values of the important parameters were varied. Parameter effect and interactions were analyzed with effects plots. The model was driven with forcing data from ten meteorological stations in Switzerland, representing a wide range of precipitation regimes across a strong temperature gradient. Of the 19 original parameters, eight were identified as important in the screening analysis. Both steps highlighted the importance of Plant Available Water Capacity (AWC) and Leaf Area Index (LAI). However, their effect varies greatly across stations. For example, while a transition from a sparse to a closed forest canopy has almost no effect on annual TE at warm and dry sites, it increases TE by up to 100 mm/year at cold-humid and warm-humid sites. Further parameters of importance describe infiltration, as well as canopy resistance and its response to environmental variables. This study offers insights for future development of hydrological and ecohydrological models. First, it shows that although local water balance is primarily controlled by climate, the vegetation and soil parameters may have a large impact on the outputs. Second, it indicates that modeling studies should prioritize a realistic parameterization of LAI and AWC, while other parameters may be set to fixed values. Third, it illustrates to which extent parameter effect and interactions depend on local climate.

Partitioning into hazard subregions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreau, J.; Naveau, P.; Neppel, L.

2017-05-01

The French Mediterranean is subject to intense precipitation events occurring mostly in autumn. These can potentially cause flash floods, the main natural danger in the area. The distribution of these events follows specific spatial patterns, i.e., some sites are more likely to be affected than others. The peaks-over-threshold approach consists in modeling extremes, such as heavy precipitation, by the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The shape parameter of the GP controls the probability of extreme events and can be related to the hazard level of a given site. When interpolating across a region, the shape parameter should reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the probability of heavy precipitation. However, the shape parameter estimators have high uncertainty which might hide the underlying spatial variability. As a compromise, we choose to let the shape parameter vary in a moderate fashion. More precisely, we assume that the region of interest can be partitioned into subregions with constant hazard level. We formalize the model as a conditional mixture of GP distributions. We develop a two-step inference strategy based on probability weighted moments and put forward a cross-validation procedure to select the number of subregions. A synthetic data study reveals that the inference strategy is consistent and not very sensitive to the selected number of subregions. An application on daily precipitation data from the French Mediterranean shows that the conditional mixture of GPs outperforms two interpolation approaches (with constant or smoothly varying shape parameter).

Automated design optimization of supersonic airplane wing structures under dynamic constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, R. L.; Miura, H.; Rao, S. S.

1972-01-01

The problems of the preliminary and first level detail design of supersonic aircraft wings are stated as mathematical programs and solved using automated optimum design techniques. The problem is approached in two phases: the first is a simplified equivalent plate model in which the envelope, planform and structural parameters are varied to produce a design, the second is a finite element model with fixed configuration in which the material distribution is varied. Constraints include flutter, aeroelastically computed stresses and deflections, natural frequency and a variety of geometric limitations.

A seasonal Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritschel, Christoph; Agbéko Kpogo-Nuwoklo, Komlan; Rust, Henning; Ulbrich, Uwe; Névir, Peter

2016-04-01

Precipitation time series with a high temporal resolution are needed as input for several hydrological applications, e.g. river runoff or sewer system models. As adequate observational data sets are often not available, simulated precipitation series come to use. Poisson-cluster models are commonly applied to generate these series. It has been shown that this class of stochastic precipitation models is able to well reproduce important characteristics of observed rainfall. For the gauge based case study presented here, the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model (BLRPM) has been chosen. As it has been shown that certain model parameters vary with season in a midlatitude moderate climate due to different rainfall mechanisms dominating in winter and summer, model parameters are typically estimated separately for individual seasons or individual months. Here, we suggest a simultaneous parameter estimation for the whole year under the assumption that seasonal variation of parameters can be described with harmonic functions. We use an observational precipitation series from Berlin with a high temporal resolution to exemplify the approach. We estimate BLRPM parameters with and without this seasonal extention and compare the results in terms of model performance and robustness of the estimation.

Adaptive estimation of state of charge and capacity with online identified battery model for vanadium redox flow battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Tseng, King Jet; Wai, Nyunt; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2016-11-01

Reliable state estimate depends largely on an accurate battery model. However, the parameters of battery model are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging. The existing co-estimation methods address the model uncertainty by integrating the online model identification with state estimate and have shown improved accuracy. However, the cross interference may arise from the integrated framework to compromise numerical stability and accuracy. Thus this paper proposes the decoupling of model identification and state estimate to eliminate the possibility of cross interference. The model parameters are online adapted with the recursive least squares (RLS) method, based on which a novel joint estimator based on extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is formulated to estimate the state of charge (SOC) and capacity concurrently. The proposed joint estimator effectively compresses the filter order which leads to substantial improvement in the computational efficiency and numerical stability. Lab scale experiment on vanadium redox flow battery shows that the proposed method is highly authentic with good robustness to varying operating conditions and battery aging. The proposed method is further compared with some existing methods and shown to be superior in terms of accuracy, convergence speed, and computational cost.

Description and availability of the SMARTS spectral model for photovoltaic applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, Daryl R.; Gueymard, Christian A.

2004-11-01

Limited spectral response range of photocoltaic (PV) devices requires device performance be characterized with respect to widely varying terrestrial solar spectra. The FORTRAN code "Simple Model for Atmospheric Transmission of Sunshine" (SMARTS) was developed for various clear-sky solar renewable energy applications. The model is partly based on parameterizations of transmittance functions in the MODTRAN/LOWTRAN band model family of radiative transfer codes. SMARTS computes spectra with a resolution of 0.5 nanometers (nm) below 400 nm, 1.0 nm from 400 nm to 1700 nm, and 5 nm from 1700 nm to 4000 nm. Fewer than 20 input parameters are required to compute spectral irradiance distributions including spectral direct beam, total, and diffuse hemispherical radiation, and up to 30 other spectral parameters. A spreadsheet-based graphical user interface can be used to simplify the construction of input files for the model. The model is the basis for new terrestrial reference spectra developed by the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) for photovoltaic and materials degradation applications. We describe the model accuracy, functionality, and the availability of source and executable code. Applications to PV rating and efficiency and the combined effects of spectral selectivity and varying atmospheric conditions are briefly discussed.

Patient-specific parameter estimation in single-ventricle lumped circulation models under uncertainty

PubMed Central

Schiavazzi, Daniele E.; Baretta, Alessia; Pennati, Giancarlo; Hsia, Tain-Yen; Marsden, Alison L.

2017-01-01

Summary Computational models of cardiovascular physiology can inform clinical decision-making, providing a physically consistent framework to assess vascular pressures and flow distributions, and aiding in treatment planning. In particular, lumped parameter network (LPN) models that make an analogy to electrical circuits offer a fast and surprisingly realistic method to reproduce the circulatory physiology. The complexity of LPN models can vary significantly to account, for example, for cardiac and valve function, respiration, autoregulation, and time-dependent hemodynamics. More complex models provide insight into detailed physiological mechanisms, but their utility is maximized if one can quickly identify patient specific parameters. The clinical utility of LPN models with many parameters will be greatly enhanced by automated parameter identification, particularly if parameter tuning can match non-invasively obtained clinical data. We present a framework for automated tuning of 0D lumped model parameters to match clinical data. We demonstrate the utility of this framework through application to single ventricle pediatric patients with Norwood physiology. Through a combination of local identifiability, Bayesian estimation and maximum a posteriori simplex optimization, we show the ability to automatically determine physiologically consistent point estimates of the parameters and to quantify uncertainty induced by errors and assumptions in the collected clinical data. We show that multi-level estimation, that is, updating the parameter prior information through sub-model analysis, can lead to a significant reduction in the parameter marginal posterior variance. We first consider virtual patient conditions, with clinical targets generated through model solutions, and second application to a cohort of four single-ventricle patients with Norwood physiology. PMID:27155892

Cell death, perfusion and electrical parameters are critical in models of hepatic radiofrequency ablation

PubMed Central

Hall, Sheldon K.; Ooi, Ean H.; Payne, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

Abstract Purpose: A sensitivity analysis has been performed on a mathematical model of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in the liver. The purpose of this is to identify the most important parameters in the model, defined as those that produce the largest changes in the prediction. This is important in understanding the role of uncertainty and when comparing the model predictions to experimental data. Materials and methods: The Morris method was chosen to perform the sensitivity analysis because it is ideal for models with many parameters or that take a significant length of time to obtain solutions. A comprehensive literature review was performed to obtain ranges over which the model parameters are expected to vary, crucial input information. Results: The most important parameters in predicting the ablation zone size in our model of RFA are those representing the blood perfusion, electrical conductivity and the cell death model. The size of the 50 °C isotherm is sensitive to the electrical properties of tissue while the heat source is active, and to the thermal parameters during cooling. Conclusions: The parameter ranges chosen for the sensitivity analysis are believed to represent all that is currently known about their values in combination. The Morris method is able to compute global parameter sensitivities taking into account the interaction of all parameters, something that has not been done before. Research is needed to better understand the uncertainties in the cell death, electrical conductivity and perfusion models, but the other parameters are only of second order, providing a significant simplification. PMID:26000972

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roberts, Jesse D.; Grace Chang; Jason Magalen

A n indust ry standard wave modeling tool was utilized to investigate model sensitivity to input parameters and wave energy converter ( WEC ) array deploym ent scenarios. Wave propagation was investigated d ownstream of the WECs to evaluate overall near - and far - field effects of WEC arrays. The sensitivity study illustrate d that b oth wave height and near - bottom orbital velocity we re subject to the largest pote ntial variations, each decreas ed in sensitivity as transmission coefficient increase d , as number and spacing of WEC devices decrease d , and as the deploymentmore » location move d offshore. Wave direction wa s affected consistently for all parameters and wave perio d was not affected (or negligibly affected) by varying model parameters or WEC configuration .« less

Macromolecular refinement by model morphing using non-atomic parameterizations.

PubMed

Cowtan, Kevin; Agirre, Jon

2018-02-01

Refinement is a critical step in the determination of a model which explains the crystallographic observations and thus best accounts for the missing phase components. The scattering density is usually described in terms of atomic parameters; however, in macromolecular crystallography the resolution of the data is generally insufficient to determine the values of these parameters for individual atoms. Stereochemical and geometric restraints are used to provide additional information, but produce interrelationships between parameters which slow convergence, resulting in longer refinement times. An alternative approach is proposed in which parameters are not attached to atoms, but to regions of the electron-density map. These parameters can move the density or change the local temperature factor to better explain the structure factors. Varying the size of the region which determines the parameters at a particular position in the map allows the method to be applied at different resolutions without the use of restraints. Potential applications include initial refinement of molecular-replacement models with domain motions, and potentially the use of electron density from other sources such as electron cryo-microscopy (cryo-EM) as the refinement model.

Small-amplitude acoustics in bulk granular media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henann, David L.; Valenza, John J., II; Johnson, David L.; Kamrin, Ken

2013-10-01

We propose and validate a three-dimensional continuum modeling approach that predicts small-amplitude acoustic behavior of dense-packed granular media. The model is obtained through a joint experimental and finite-element study focused on the benchmark example of a vibrated container of grains. Using a three-parameter linear viscoelastic constitutive relation, our continuum model is shown to quantitatively predict the effective mass spectra in this geometry, even as geometric parameters for the environment are varied. Further, the model's predictions for the surface displacement field are validated mode-by-mode against experiment. A primary observation is the importance of the boundary condition between grains and the quasirigid walls.

Compression and release dynamics of an active matter system of Euglena gracilis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Amy; Tsang, Alan C. H.; Ouellette, Nicholas; Riedel-Kruse, Ingmar

Active matter, defined as ensembles of self-propelled particles, encompasses a large variety of systems at all scales, from nanoparticles to bird flocks. Though various models and simulations have been created to describe the dynamics of these systems, experimental verification has been difficult to obtain. This is frequently due to the complex interaction rules which govern the particle behavior, in turn making systematic varying of parameters impossible. Here, we propose a model for predicting the system evolution of compression and release of an active system based on experiments and simulations. In particular, we consider ensembles of the unicellular, photo-responsive algae, Euglena gracilis, under light stimulation. By varying the spatiotemporal light patterns, we are able to finely adjust cell densities and achieve arbitrary non-homogeneous distributions, including compression into high-density aggregates of varying geometries. We observe the formation of depletion zones after the release of the confining stimulus and investigate the effects of the density distribution and particle rotational noise on the depletion. These results provide implications for defining state parameters which determine system evolution.

Inversion of parameters for semiarid regions by a neural network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zurk, Lisa M.; Davis, Daniel; Njoku, Eni G.; Tsang, Leung; Hwang, Jenq-Neng

1992-01-01

Microwave brightness temperatures obtained from a passive radiative transfer model are inverted through use of a neural network. The model is applicable to semiarid regions and produces dual-polarized brightness temperatures for 6.6-, 10.7-, and 37-GHz frequencies. A range of temperatures is generated by varying three geophysical parameters over acceptable ranges: soil moisture, vegetation moisture, and soil temperature. A multilayered perceptron (MLP) neural network is trained with a subset of the generated temperatures, and the remaining temperatures are inverted using a backpropagation method. Several synthetic terrains are devised and inverted by the network under local constraints. All the inversions show good agreement with the original geophysical parameters, falling within 5 percent of the actual value of the parameter range.

The Hindmarsh-Rose neuron model: bifurcation analysis and piecewise-linear approximations.

PubMed

Storace, Marco; Linaro, Daniele; de Lange, Enno

2008-09-01

This paper provides a global picture of the bifurcation scenario of the Hindmarsh-Rose model. A combination between simulations and numerical continuations is used to unfold the complex bifurcation structure. The bifurcation analysis is carried out by varying two bifurcation parameters and evidence is given that the structure that is found is universal and appears for all combinations of bifurcation parameters. The information about the organizing principles and bifurcation diagrams are then used to compare the dynamics of the model with that of a piecewise-linear approximation, customized for circuit implementation. A good match between the dynamical behaviors of the models is found. These results can be used both to design a circuit implementation of the Hindmarsh-Rose model mimicking the diversity of neural response and as guidelines to predict the behavior of the model as well as its circuit implementation as a function of parameters. (c) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Active subspace uncertainty quantification for a polydomain ferroelectric phase-field model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leon, Lider S.; Smith, Ralph C.; Miles, Paul; Oates, William S.

2018-03-01

Quantum-informed ferroelectric phase field models capable of predicting material behavior, are necessary for facilitating the development and production of many adaptive structures and intelligent systems. Uncertainty is present in these models, given the quantum scale at which calculations take place. A necessary analysis is to determine how the uncertainty in the response can be attributed to the uncertainty in the model inputs or parameters. A second analysis is to identify active subspaces within the original parameter space, which quantify directions in which the model response varies most dominantly, thus reducing sampling effort and computational cost. In this investigation, we identify an active subspace for a poly-domain ferroelectric phase-field model. Using the active variables as our independent variables, we then construct a surrogate model and perform Bayesian inference. Once we quantify the uncertainties in the active variables, we obtain uncertainties for the original parameters via an inverse mapping. The analysis provides insight into how active subspace methodologies can be used to reduce computational power needed to perform Bayesian inference on model parameters informed by experimental or simulated data.

Sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo filter with simultaneous model selection for electrocardiogram signal modeling.

PubMed

Edla, Shwetha; Kovvali, Narayan; Papandreou-Suppappola, Antonia

2012-01-01

Constructing statistical models of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals, whose parameters can be used for automated disease classification, is of great importance in precluding manual annotation and providing prompt diagnosis of cardiac diseases. ECG signals consist of several segments with different morphologies (namely the P wave, QRS complex and the T wave) in a single heart beat, which can vary across individuals and diseases. Also, existing statistical ECG models exhibit a reliance upon obtaining a priori information from the ECG data by using preprocessing algorithms to initialize the filter parameters, or to define the user-specified model parameters. In this paper, we propose an ECG modeling technique using the sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) filter that can perform simultaneous model selection, by adaptively choosing from different representations depending upon the nature of the data. Our results demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to track various types of ECG morphologies, including intermittently occurring ECG beats. In addition, we use the estimated model parameters as the feature set to classify between ECG signals with normal sinus rhythm and four different types of arrhythmia.

Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

PubMed

Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

2016-06-01

Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

Assessing and Adapting LiDAR-Derived Pit-Free Canopy Height Model Algorithm for Sites with Varying Vegetation Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, V.; Hulslander, D.; Goulden, T.; Wasser, L. A.

2015-12-01

Spatial and temporal monitoring of vegetation structure is important to the ecological community. Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) systems are used to efficiently survey large forested areas. From LiDAR data, three-dimensional models of forests called canopy height models (CHMs) are generated and used to estimate tree height. A common problem associated with CHMs is data pits, where LiDAR pulses penetrate the top of the canopy, leading to an underestimation of vegetation height. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) currently implements an algorithm to reduce data pit frequency, which requires two height threshold parameters, increment size and range ceiling. CHMs are produced at a series of height increments up to a height range ceiling and combined to produce a CHM with reduced pits (referred to as a "pit-free" CHM). The current implementation uses static values for the height increment and ceiling (5 and 15 meters, respectively). To facilitate the generation of accurate pit-free CHMs across diverse NEON sites with varying vegetation structure, the impacts of adjusting the height threshold parameters were investigated through development of an algorithm which dynamically selects the height increment and ceiling. A series of pit-free CHMs were generated using three height range ceilings and four height increment values for three ecologically different sites. Height threshold parameters were found to change CHM-derived tree heights up to 36% compared to original CHMs. The extent of the parameters' influence on modelled tree heights was greater than expected, which will be considered during future CHM data product development at NEON. (A) Aerial image of Harvard National Forest, (B) standard CHM containing pits, appearing as black speckles, (C) a pit-free CHM created with the static algorithm implementation, and (D) a pit-free CHM created through varying the height threshold ceiling up to 82 m and the increment to 1 m.

Finite element modelling of squirrel, guinea pig and rat skulls: using geometric morphometrics to assess sensitivity.

PubMed

Cox, P G; Fagan, M J; Rayfield, E J; Jeffery, N

2011-12-01

Rodents are defined by a uniquely specialized dentition and a highly complex arrangement of jaw-closing muscles. Finite element analysis (FEA) is an ideal technique to investigate the biomechanical implications of these specializations, but it is essential to understand fully the degree of influence of the different input parameters of the FE model to have confidence in the model's predictions. This study evaluates the sensitivity of FE models of rodent crania to elastic properties of the materials, loading direction, and the location and orientation of the models' constraints. Three FE models were constructed of squirrel, guinea pig and rat skulls. Each was loaded to simulate biting on the incisors, and the first and the third molars, with the angle of the incisal bite varied over a range of 45°. The Young's moduli of the bone and teeth components were varied between limits defined by findings from our own and previously published tests of material properties. Geometric morphometrics (GMM) was used to analyse the resulting skull deformations. Bone stiffness was found to have the strongest influence on the results in all three rodents, followed by bite position, and then bite angle and muscle orientation. Tooth material properties were shown to have little effect on the deformation of the skull. The effect of bite position varied between species, with the mesiodistal position of the biting tooth being most important in squirrels and guinea pigs, whereas bilateral vs. unilateral biting had the greatest influence in rats. A GMM analysis of isolated incisor deformations showed that, for all rodents, bite angle is the most important parameter, followed by elastic properties of the tooth. The results here elucidate which input parameters are most important when defining the FE models, but also provide interesting glimpses of the biomechanical differences between the three skulls, which will be fully explored in future publications. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Anatomy © 2011 Anatomical Society of Great Britain and Ireland.

Fuzzy Stochastic Petri Nets for Modeling Biological Systems with Uncertain Kinetic Parameters

PubMed Central

Liu, Fei; Heiner, Monika; Yang, Ming

2016-01-01

Stochastic Petri nets (SPNs) have been widely used to model randomness which is an inherent feature of biological systems. However, for many biological systems, some kinetic parameters may be uncertain due to incomplete, vague or missing kinetic data (often called fuzzy uncertainty), or naturally vary, e.g., between different individuals, experimental conditions, etc. (often called variability), which has prevented a wider application of SPNs that require accurate parameters. Considering the strength of fuzzy sets to deal with uncertain information, we apply a specific type of stochastic Petri nets, fuzzy stochastic Petri nets (FSPNs), to model and analyze biological systems with uncertain kinetic parameters. FSPNs combine SPNs and fuzzy sets, thereby taking into account both randomness and fuzziness of biological systems. For a biological system, SPNs model the randomness, while fuzzy sets model kinetic parameters with fuzzy uncertainty or variability by associating each parameter with a fuzzy number instead of a crisp real value. We introduce a simulation-based analysis method for FSPNs to explore the uncertainties of outputs resulting from the uncertainties associated with input parameters, which works equally well for bounded and unbounded models. We illustrate our approach using a yeast polarization model having an infinite state space, which shows the appropriateness of FSPNs in combination with simulation-based analysis for modeling and analyzing biological systems with uncertain information. PMID:26910830

Population Synthesis of Radio & Gamma-Ray Millisecond Pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederick, Sara; Gonthier, P. L.; Harding, A. K.

2014-01-01

In recent years, the number of known gamma-ray millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic disk has risen substantially thanks to confirmed detections by Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). We have developed a new population synthesis of gamma-ray and radio MSPs in the galaxy which uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to explore the large and small worlds of the model parameter space and allows for comparisons of the simulated and detected MSP distributions. The simulation employs empirical radio and gamma-ray luminosity models that are dependent upon the pulsar period and period derivative with freely varying exponents. Parameters associated with the birth distributions are also free to vary. The computer code adjusts the magnitudes of the model luminosities to reproduce the number of MSPs detected by a group of ten radio surveys, thus normalizing the simulation and predicting the MSP birth rates in the Galaxy. Computing many Markov chains leads to preferred sets of model parameters that are further explored through two statistical methods. Marginalized plots define confidence regions in the model parameter space using maximum likelihood methods. A secondary set of confidence regions is determined in parallel using Kuiper statistics calculated from comparisons of cumulative distributions. These two techniques provide feedback to affirm the results and to check for consistency. Radio flux and dispersion measure constraints have been imposed on the simulated gamma-ray distributions in order to reproduce realistic detection conditions. The simulated and detected distributions agree well for both sets of radio and gamma-ray pulsar characteristics, as evidenced by our various comparisons.

Regional climate simulations with COSMO-CLM over MENA-CORDEX domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galluccio, Salvatore; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Mercogliano, Paola; Montesarchio, Myriam

2014-05-01

In the frame of WCRP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), a set of common Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD) domains has been defined, as a prerequisite for the development of model evaluation and climate projection frameworks. CORDEX domains encompass the majority of land areas of the world. In this work, climate simulations have been performed over MENA-CORDEX domain, which includes North-Africa, southern Europe and the whole Arabian peninsula. The non-hydrostatic regional climate model COSMO-CLM has been used. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A series of simulations has been conducted over the MENA-CORDEX area at spatial resolution of 0.44°. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to adjust the model configuration to better reproduce the observed climate data. The numerical simulations were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (horizontal resolution of 0.703°) for the period 1979-1984; the first year, was considered as a spin up period. The validation was performed by using several data sets: CRU data set was used to validate temperature, precipitation and cloud cover; MERRA data set was used to validate temperature and precipitation and GPCP for precipitation. The model sensitivity to the external parameters was tested considering two different configurations for the surface albedo. In the first one, albedo is only function of soil-type whereas in the second configuration it is prescribed by two external fields for dry and saturated soil based on MODIS data. Moreover, we tested two aerosol distributions as well, namely the default Tanre aerosol distribution and aerosol maps according to Tegen (NASA/GISS). We found, as expected, a significant sensitivity, in particular on the African region. We also varied tuning and physical parameters, such as the scaling factor for the thickness of the laminar boundary layer for heat, which defines the layer with non-turbulent characteristics, mean entrainment rate for shallow convection, cloud ice threshold for autoconversion, radiation and clouds. We choose such parameters following several literature works, which showed that these parameters mostly affect the fields simulated by the model. However, it is known that the sensitivity of a RCM with respect to parameter variations depends, in general, on the model domain, the temporal and spatial scales and the model variables considered. We made a first set of simulations varying one parameter at a time, using Taylor's diagrams, as well as seasonal cycles and bias maps to take tracking changes in the model performance. Successively, we run a second set of simulations in which we varied two or three parameters at a time to get an optimal configuration. The selected configuration is being used to carry out simulations on a 30-years past period, starting from 1979, for three horizontal resolutions, namely 0.44°, 0.22° and 0.11°.

Modeling the Impact of Motivation, Personality, and Emotion on Social Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Lynn C.; Read, Stephen J.; Zachary, Wayne; Rosoff, Andrew

Models seeking to predict human social behavior must contend with multiple sources of individual and group variability that underlie social behavior. One set of interrelated factors that strongly contribute to that variability - motivations, personality, and emotions - has been only minimally incorporated in previous computational models of social behavior. The Personality, Affect, Culture (PAC) framework is a theory-based computational model that addresses this gap. PAC is used to simulate social agents whose social behavior varies according to their personalities and emotions, which, in turn, vary according to their motivations and underlying motive control parameters. Examples involving disease spread and counter-insurgency operations show how PAC can be used to study behavioral variability in different social contexts.

Can biophysical properties of submersed macrophytes be determined by remote sensing?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malthus, T.J.; Ciraolo, G.; La Loggia, G.

1997-06-01

This paper details the development of a computationally efficient Monte Carlo simulation program to model photon transport through submersed plant canopies, with emphasis on Seagrass communities. The model incorporates three components: the transmission of photons through a water column of varying depth and turbidity; the interaction of photons within a submersed plant canopy of varying biomass; and interactions with the bottom substrate. The three components of the model are discussed. Simulations were performed based on measured parameters for Posidonia oceanica and compared to measured subsurface reflectance spectra made over comparable seagrass communities in Sicilian coastal waters. It is shown thatmore » the output is realistic. Further simulations are undertaken to investigate the effect of depth and turbidity of the overlying water column. Both sets of results indicate the rapid loss of canopy signal as depth increases and water column phytoplankton concentrations increase. The implications for the development of algorithms for the estimation of submersed canopy biophysical parameters are briefly discussed.« less

Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nakis, Christopher G.

2004-01-01

The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.

Effects of the seasonal cycle on superrotation in planetary atmospheres

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Potter, Samuel F.

2014-05-20

The dynamics of dry atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by seasonally varying Newtonian relaxation are explored over a wide range of two control parameters and are compared with the large-scale circulation of Earth, Mars, and Titan in their relevant parameter regimes. Of the parameters that govern the behavior of the system, the thermal Rossby number (Ro) has previously been found to be important in governing the spontaneous transition from an Earth-like climatology of winds to a superrotating one with prograde equatorial winds, in the absence of a seasonal cycle. This case is somewhat unrealistic as it applies only ifmore » the planet has zero obliquity or if surface thermal inertia is very large. While Venus has nearly vanishing obliquity, Earth, Mars, and Titan (Saturn) all have obliquities of ∼25° and varying degrees of seasonality due to their differing thermal inertias and orbital periods. Motivated by this, we introduce a time-dependent Newtonian cooling to drive a seasonal cycle using idealized model forcing, and we define a second control parameter that mimics non-dimensional thermal inertia of planetary surfaces. We then perform and analyze simulations across the parameter range bracketed by Earth-like and Titan-like regimes, assess the impact on the spontaneous transition to superrotation, and compare Earth, Mars, and Titan to the model simulations in the relevant parameter regime. We find that a large seasonal cycle (small thermal inertia) prevents model atmospheres with large thermal Rossby numbers from developing superrotation by the influences of (1) cross-equatorial momentum advection by the Hadley circulation and (2) hemispherically asymmetric zonal-mean zonal winds that suppress instabilities leading to equatorial momentum convergence. We also demonstrate that baroclinic instabilities must be sufficiently weak to allow superrotation to develop. In the relevant parameter regimes, our seasonal model simulations compare favorably to large-scale, seasonal phenomena observed on Earth and Mars. In the Titan-like regime the seasonal cycle in our model acts to prevent superrotation from developing, and it is necessary to increase the value of a third parameter—the atmospheric Newtonian cooling time—to achieve a superrotating climatology.« less

An integrated and dynamic optimisation model for the multi-level emergency logistics network in anti-bioterrorism system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Ming; Zhao, Lindu

2012-08-01

Demand for emergency resources is usually uncertain and varies quickly in anti-bioterrorism system. Besides, emergency resources which had been allocated to the epidemic areas in the early rescue cycle will affect the demand later. In this article, an integrated and dynamic optimisation model with time-varying demand based on the epidemic diffusion rule is constructed. The heuristic algorithm coupled with the MATLAB mathematical programming solver is adopted to solve the optimisation model. In what follows, the application of the optimisation model as well as a short sensitivity analysis of the key parameters in the time-varying demand forecast model is presented. The results show that both the model and the solution algorithm are useful in practice, and both objectives of inventory level and emergency rescue cost can be controlled effectively. Thus, it can provide some guidelines for decision makers when coping with emergency rescue problem with uncertain demand, and offers an excellent reference when issues pertain to bioterrorism.

Parameter Balancing in Kinetic Models of Cell Metabolism†

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Kinetic modeling of metabolic pathways has become a major field of systems biology. It combines structural information about metabolic pathways with quantitative enzymatic rate laws. Some of the kinetic constants needed for a model could be collected from ever-growing literature and public web resources, but they are often incomplete, incompatible, or simply not available. We address this lack of information by parameter balancing, a method to complete given sets of kinetic constants. Based on Bayesian parameter estimation, it exploits the thermodynamic dependencies among different biochemical quantities to guess realistic model parameters from available kinetic data. Our algorithm accounts for varying measurement conditions in the input data (pH value and temperature). It can process kinetic constants and state-dependent quantities such as metabolite concentrations or chemical potentials, and uses prior distributions and data augmentation to keep the estimated quantities within plausible ranges. An online service and free software for parameter balancing with models provided in SBML format (Systems Biology Markup Language) is accessible at www.semanticsbml.org. We demonstrate its practical use with a small model of the phosphofructokinase reaction and discuss its possible applications and limitations. In the future, parameter balancing could become an important routine step in the kinetic modeling of large metabolic networks. PMID:21038890

Continuous-time discrete-space models for animal movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Alldredge, Mat W.

2015-01-01

The processes influencing animal movement and resource selection are complex and varied. Past efforts to model behavioral changes over time used Bayesian statistical models with variable parameter space, such as reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, which are computationally demanding and inaccessible to many practitioners. We present a continuous-time discrete-space (CTDS) model of animal movement that can be fit using standard generalized linear modeling (GLM) methods. This CTDS approach allows for the joint modeling of location-based as well as directional drivers of movement. Changing behavior over time is modeled using a varying-coefficient framework which maintains the computational simplicity of a GLM approach, and variable selection is accomplished using a group lasso penalty. We apply our approach to a study of two mountain lions (Puma concolor) in Colorado, USA.

Risk-assessment of post-wildfire hydrological response in semi-arid basins: The effects of varying rainfall representations in the KINEROS2/AGWA model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Representation of precipitation is one of the most difficult aspects of modeling post-fire runoff and erosion and also one of the most sensitive input parameters to rainfall-runoff models. The impact of post-fire convective rainstorms, especially in semi-arid watersheds, depends on the overlap betwe...

Measurements of CP-conserving trilinear gauge boson couplings WWV (V≡ γ,Z) in e+e- collisions at LEP2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, J.; Abreu, P.; Adam, W.; Adzic, P.; Albrecht, T.; Alemany-Fernandez, R.; Allmendinger, T.; Allport, P. P.; Amaldi, U.; Amapane, N.; Amato, S.; Anashkin, E.; Andreazza, A.; Andringa, S.; Anjos, N.; Antilogus, P.; Apel, W.-D.; Arnoud, Y.; Ask, S.; Asman, B.; Augustin, J. E.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Ballestrero, A.; Bambade, P.; Barbier, R.; Bardin, D.; Barker, G. J.; Baroncelli, A.; Battaglia, M.; Baubillier, M.; Becks, K.-H.; Begalli, M.; Behrmann, A.; Ben-Haim, E.; Benekos, N.; Benvenuti, A.; Berat, C.; Berggren, M.; Bertrand, D.; Besancon, M.; Besson, N.; Bloch, D.; Blom, M.; Bluj, M.; Bonesini, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Booth, P. S. L.; Borisov, G.; Botner, O.; Bouquet, B.; Bowcock, T. J. V.; Boyko, I.; Bracko, M.; Brenner, R.; Brodet, E.; Bruckman, P.; Brunet, J. M.; Buschbeck, B.; Buschmann, P.; Calvi, M.; Camporesi, T.; Canale, V.; Carena, F.; Castro, N.; Cavallo, F.; Chapkin, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Checchia, P.; Chierici, R.; Chliapnikov, P.; Chudoba, J.; Chung, S. U.; Cieslik, K.; Collins, P.; Contri, R.; Cosme, G.; Cossutti, F.; Costa, M. J.; Crennell, D.; Cuevas, J.; D'Hondt, J.; da Silva, T.; da Silva, W.; Della Ricca, G.; de Angelis, A.; de Boer, W.; de Clercq, C.; de Lotto, B.; de Maria, N.; de Min, A.; de Paula, L.; di Ciaccio, L.; di Simone, A.; Doroba, K.; Drees, J.; Eigen, G.; Ekelof, T.; Ellert, M.; Elsing, M.; Espirito Santo, M. C.; Fanourakis, G.; Fassouliotis, D.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J.; Ferrer, A.; Ferro, F.; Flagmeyer, U.; Foeth, H.; Fokitis, E.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Fuster, J.; Gandelman, M.; Garcia, C.; Gavillet, Ph.; Gazis, E.; Gokieli, R.; Golob, B.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncalves, P.; Graziani, E.; Grosdidier, G.; Grzelak, K.; Guy, J.; Haag, C.; Hallgren, A.; Hamacher, K.; Hamilton, K.; Haug, S.; Hauler, F.; Hedberg, V.; Hennecke, M.; Hoffman, J.; Holmgren, S.-O.; Holt, P. J.; Houlden, M. A.; Jackson, J. N.; Jarlskog, G.; Jarry, P.; Jeans, D.; Johansson, E. K.; Jonsson, P.; Joram, C.; Jungermann, L.; Kapusta, F.; Katsanevas, S.; Katsoufis, E.; Kernel, G.; Kersevan, B. P.; Kerzel, U.; King, B. T.; Kjaer, N. J.; Kluit, P.; Kokkinias, P.; Kostioukhine, V.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krumstein, Z.; Kucharczyk, M.; Lamsa, J.; Leder, G.; Ledroit, F.; Leinonen, L.; Leitner, R.; Lemonne, J.; Lepeltier, V.; Lesiak, T.; Libby, J.; Liebig, W.; Liko, D.; Lipniacka, A.; Lopes, J. H.; Lopez, J. M.; Loukas, D.; Lutz, P.; Lyons, L.; MacNaughton, J.; Malek, A.; Maltezos, S.; Mandl, F.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Marechal, B.; Margoni, M.; Marin, J.-C.; Mariotti, C.; Markou, A.; Martinez-Rivero, C.; Masik, J.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Matorras, F.; Matteuzzi, C.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; Mc Nulty, R.; Meroni, C.; Migliore, E.; Mitaroff, W.; Mjoernmark, U.; Moa, T.; Moch, M.; Moenig, K.; Monge, R.; Montenegro, J.; Moraes, D.; Moreno, S.; Morettini, P.; Mueller, U.; Muenich, K.; Mulders, M.; Mundim, L.; Murray, W.; Muryn, B.; Myatt, G.; Myklebust, T.; Nassiakou, M.; Navarria, F.; Nawrocki, K.; Nemecek, S.; Nicolaidou, R.; Nikolenko, M.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Olshevski, A.; Onofre, A.; Orava, R.; Osterberg, K.; Ouraou, A.; Oyanguren, A.; Paganoni, M.; Paiano, S.; Palacios, J. P.; Palka, H.; Papadopoulou, Th. D.; Pape, L.; Parkes, C.; Parodi, F.; Parzefall, U.; Passeri, A.; Passon, O.; Peralta, L.; Perepelitsa, V.; Perrotta, A.; Petrolini, A.; Piedra, J.; Pieri, L.; Pierre, F.; Pimenta, M.; Piotto, E.; Podobnik, T.; Poireau, V.; Pol, M. E.; Polok, G.; Pozdniakov, V.; Pukhaeva, N.; Pullia, A.; Radojicic, D.; Rebecchi, P.; Rehn, J.; Reid, D.; Reinhardt, R.; Renton, P.; Richard, F.; Ridky, J.; Rivero, M.; Rodriguez, D.; Romero, A.; Ronchese, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rovelli, T.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Ryabtchikov, D.; Sadovsky, A.; Salmi, L.; Salt, J.; Sander, C.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schwickerath, U.; Sekulin, R.; Siebel, M.; Sisakian, A.; Smadja, G.; Smirnova, O.; Sokolov, A.; Sopczak, A.; Sosnowski, R.; Spassov, T.; Stanitzki, M.; Stocchi, A.; Strauss, J.; Stugu, B.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Szumlak, T.; Tabarelli, T.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Terranova, F.; Timmermans, J.; Tkatchev, L.; Tobin, M.; Todorovova, S.; Tome, B.; Tonazzo, A.; Tortosa, P.; Travnicek, P.; Treille, D.; Tristram, G.; Trochimczuk, M.; Troncon, C.; Turluer, M.-L.; Tyapkin, I. A.; Tyapkin, P.; Tzamarias, S.; Uvarov, V.; Valenti, G.; van Dam, P.; van Eldik, J.; van Lysebetten, A.; van Remortel, N.; van Vulpen, I.; Vegni, G.; Veloso, F.; Venus, W.; Verdier, P.; Verzi, V.; Vilanova, D.; Vitale, L.; Vrba, V.; Wahlen, H.; Washbrook, A. J.; Weiser, C.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, J.; Wilkinson, G.; Winter, M.; Witek, M.; Yushchenko, O.; Zalewska, A.; Zalewski, P.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zhuravlov, V.; Zimin, N. I.; Zintchenko, A.; Zupan, M.; DELPHI Collaboration

2010-03-01

The data taken by Delphi at centre-of-mass energies between 189 and 209 GeV are used to place limits on the CP-conserving trilinear gauge boson couplings Δ gZ1, λ γ and Δ κ γ associated to W + W - and single W production at Lep2. Using data from the jj ℓ ν, jjjj, jjX and ℓ X final states, where j, ℓ and X represent a jet, a lepton and missing four-momentum, respectively, the following limits are set on the couplings when one parameter is allowed to vary and the others are set to their Standard Model values of zero: begin{array}{l}Δ g^Z_1=-0.025^{+0.033}_{-0.030}, noalign{}λ_γ =0.002^{+0.035}_{-0.035}qquadand noalign{}Δkappa_γ =0.024^{+0.077}_{-0.081}. Results are also presented when two or three parameters are allowed to vary. All observations are consistent with the predictions of the Standard Model and supersede the previous results on these gauge coupling parameters published by Delphi.

Model for threading dislocations in metamorphic tandem solar cells on GaAs (001) substrates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yifei; Kujofsa, Tedi; Ayers, John E.

2018-02-01

We present an approximate model for the threading dislocations in III-V heterostructures and have applied this model to study the defect behavior in metamorphic triple-junction solar cells. This model represents a new approach in which the coefficient for second-order threading dislocation annihilation and coalescence reactions is considered to be determined by the length of misfit dislocations, LMD, in the structure, and we therefore refer to it as the LMD model. On the basis of this model we have compared the average threading dislocation densities in the active layers of triple junction solar cells using linearly-graded buffers of varying thicknesses as well as S-graded (complementary error function) buffers with varying thicknesses and standard deviation parameters. We have shown that the threading dislocation densities in the active regions of metamorphic tandem solar cells depend not only on the thicknesses of the buffer layers but on their compositional grading profiles. The use of S-graded buffer layers instead of linear buffers resulted in lower threading dislocation densities. Moreover, the threading dislocation densities depended strongly on the standard deviation parameters used in the S-graded buffers, with smaller values providing lower threading dislocation densities.

Eye and Head Movement Characteristics in Free Visual Search of Flight-Simulator Imagery

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

conspicuity. However, only gaze amplitude varied significantly with IFOV. A two- parameter (scale and exponent) power function was fitted to the...main-sequence amplitude-duration data. Both parameters varied significantly with target conspicuity, but in opposite directions. Neither parameter ...IFOV. A two- parameter (scale and exponent) power function was fitted to the main-sequence amplitude-duration data. Both parameters varied

One-Dimensional Simulations for Spall in Metals with Intra- and Inter-grain failure models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferri, Brian; Dwivedi, Sunil; McDowell, David

2017-06-01

The objective of the present work is to model spall failure in metals with coupled effect of intra-grain and inter-grain failure mechanisms. The two mechanisms are modeled by a void nucleation, growth, and coalescence (VNGC) model and contact-cohesive model respectively. Both models were implemented in a 1-D code to simulate spall in 6061-T6 aluminum at two impact velocities. The parameters of the VNGC model without inter-grain failure and parameters of the cohesive model without intra-grain failure were first determined to obtain pull-back velocity profiles in agreement with experimental data. With the same impact velocities, the same sets of parameters did not predict the velocity profiles when both mechanisms were simultaneously activated. A sensitivity study was performed to predict spall under combined mechanisms by varying critical stress in the VNGC model and maximum traction in the cohesive model. The study provided possible sets of the two parameters leading to spall. Results will be presented comparing the predicted velocity profile with experimental data using one such set of parameters for the combined intra-grain and inter-grain failures during spall. Work supported by HDTRA1-12-1-0004 gran and by the School of Mechanical Engineering GTA.

Pesticide Environmental Fate Research for the 21st Century: Building Bridges Between Laboratory and Field Studies at Varying Scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate determination of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) is a continuing and often elusive goal of pesticide risk assessment. PECs are typically derived using simulation models that depend on laboratory generated data for key input parameters (t1/2, Koc, etc.). Model flexibility in ...

Pesticide Environmental Fate Research for the 21st Century: Building Bridges Between Laboratory and Field Studies at Varying Scales

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Accurate determination of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) is a continuing and often elusive goal of pesticide risk assessment. PECs are typically derived using simulation models that depend on laboratory generated data for key input parameters (t1/2, Koc, etc.). Model flexibility in ev...

Linear Parameter Varying Identification of Dynamic Joint Stiffness during Time-Varying Voluntary Contractions

PubMed Central

Golkar, Mahsa A.; Sobhani Tehrani, Ehsan; Kearney, Robert E.

2017-01-01

Dynamic joint stiffness is a dynamic, nonlinear relationship between the position of a joint and the torque acting about it, which can be used to describe the biomechanics of the joint and associated limb(s). This paper models and quantifies changes in ankle dynamic stiffness and its individual elements, intrinsic and reflex stiffness, in healthy human subjects during isometric, time-varying (TV) contractions of the ankle plantarflexor muscles. A subspace, linear parameter varying, parallel-cascade (LPV-PC) algorithm was used to identify the model from measured input position perturbations and output torque data using voluntary torque as the LPV scheduling variable (SV). Monte-Carlo simulations demonstrated that the algorithm is accurate, precise, and robust to colored measurement noise. The algorithm was then used to examine stiffness changes associated with TV isometric contractions. The SV was estimated from the Soleus EMG using a Hammerstein model of EMG-torque dynamics identified from unperturbed trials. The LPV-PC algorithm identified (i) a non-parametric LPV impulse response function (LPV IRF) for intrinsic stiffness and (ii) a LPV-Hammerstein model for reflex stiffness consisting of a LPV static nonlinearity followed by a time-invariant state-space model of reflex dynamics. The results demonstrated that: (a) intrinsic stiffness, in particular ankle elasticity, increased significantly and monotonically with activation level; (b) the gain of the reflex pathway increased from rest to around 10–20% of subject's MVC and then declined; and (c) the reflex dynamics were second order. These findings suggest that in healthy human ankle, reflex stiffness contributes most at low muscle contraction levels, whereas, intrinsic contributions monotonically increase with activation level. PMID:28579954

State and Parameter Estimation for a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, M.; Kondrashov, D.; Sun, C.

2006-12-01

The El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual climate variability and plays, therefore, a key role in seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Much is known by now about the main physical mechanisms that give rise to and modulate ENSO, but the values of several parameters that enter these mechanisms are an important unknown. We apply Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) for both model state and parameter estimation in an intermediate, nonlinear, coupled ocean--atmosphere model of ENSO. The coupled model consists of an upper-ocean, reduced-gravity model of the Tropical Pacific and a steady-state atmospheric response to the sea surface temperature (SST). The model errors are assumed to be mainly in the atmospheric wind stress, and assimilated data are equatorial Pacific SSTs. Model behavior is very sensitive to two key parameters: (i) μ, the ocean-atmosphere coupling coefficient between SST and wind stress anomalies; and (ii) δs, the surface-layer coefficient. Previous work has shown that δs determines the period of the model's self-sustained oscillation, while μ measures the degree of nonlinearity. Depending on the values of these parameters, the spatio-temporal pattern of model solutions is either that of a delayed oscillator or of a westward propagating mode. Estimation of these parameters is tested first on synthetic data and allows us to recover the delayed-oscillator mode starting from model parameter values that correspond to the westward-propagating case. Assimilation of SST data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-2 shows that the parameters can vary on fairly short time scales and switch between values that approximate the two distinct modes of ENSO behavior. Rapid adjustments of these parameters occur, in particular, during strong ENSO events. Ways to apply EKF parameter estimation efficiently to state-of-the-art coupled ocean--atmosphere GCMs will be discussed.

Consistent model identification of varying coefficient quantile regression with BIC tuning parameter selection

PubMed Central

Zheng, Qi; Peng, Limin

2016-01-01

Quantile regression provides a flexible platform for evaluating covariate effects on different segments of the conditional distribution of response. As the effects of covariates may change with quantile level, contemporaneously examining a spectrum of quantiles is expected to have a better capacity to identify variables with either partial or full effects on the response distribution, as compared to focusing on a single quantile. Under this motivation, we study a general adaptively weighted LASSO penalization strategy in the quantile regression setting, where a continuum of quantile index is considered and coefficients are allowed to vary with quantile index. We establish the oracle properties of the resulting estimator of coefficient function. Furthermore, we formally investigate a BIC-type uniform tuning parameter selector and show that it can ensure consistent model selection. Our numerical studies confirm the theoretical findings and illustrate an application of the new variable selection procedure. PMID:28008212

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

2011-01-01

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Hierarchical modeling of bycatch rates of sea turtles in the western North Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, B.; Sullivan, P.J.; Epperly, S.; Morreale, S.J.

2008-01-01

Previous studies indicate that the locations of the endangered loggerhead Caretta caretta and critically endangered leatherback Dermochelys coriacea sea turtles are influenced by water temperatures, and that incidental catch rates in the pelagic longline fishery vary by region. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model to examine the effects of environmental variables, including water temperature, on the number of sea turtles captured in the US pelagic longline fishery in the western North Atlantic. The modeling structure is highly flexible, utilizes a Bayesian model selection technique, and is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS. The number of sea turtles captured is modeled as a zero-inflated Poisson distribution and the model incorporates fixed effects to examine region-specific differences in the parameter estimates. Results indicate that water temperature, region, bottom depth, and target species are all significant predictors of the number of loggerhead sea turtles captured. For leatherback sea turtles, the model with only target species had the most posterior model weight, though a re-parameterization of the model indicates that temperature influences the zero-inflation parameter. The relationship between the number of sea turtles captured and the variables of interest all varied by region. This suggests that management decisions aimed at reducing sea turtle bycatch may be more effective if they are spatially explicit. ?? Inter-Research 2008.

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, Jerry G.; Young, M.; Goodenow, Debra A.; Keenan, A.; Walton, M.; Boley, L.

2015-01-01

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

Identifiability, reducibility, and adaptability in allosteric macromolecules.

PubMed

Bohner, Gergő; Venkataraman, Gaurav

2017-05-01

The ability of macromolecules to transduce stimulus information at one site into conformational changes at a distant site, termed "allostery," is vital for cellular signaling. Here, we propose a link between the sensitivity of allosteric macromolecules to their underlying biophysical parameters, the interrelationships between these parameters, and macromolecular adaptability. We demonstrate that the parameters of a canonical model of the mSlo large-conductance Ca 2+ -activated K + (BK) ion channel are non-identifiable with respect to the equilibrium open probability-voltage relationship, a common functional assay. We construct a reduced model with emergent parameters that are identifiable and expressed as combinations of the original mechanistic parameters. These emergent parameters indicate which coordinated changes in mechanistic parameters can leave assay output unchanged. We predict that these coordinated changes are used by allosteric macromolecules to adapt, and we demonstrate how this prediction can be tested experimentally. We show that these predicted parameter compensations are used in the first reported allosteric phenomena: the Bohr effect, by which hemoglobin adapts to varying pH. © 2017 Bohner and Venkataraman.

Identifiability, reducibility, and adaptability in allosteric macromolecules

PubMed Central

Bohner, Gergő

2017-01-01

The ability of macromolecules to transduce stimulus information at one site into conformational changes at a distant site, termed “allostery,” is vital for cellular signaling. Here, we propose a link between the sensitivity of allosteric macromolecules to their underlying biophysical parameters, the interrelationships between these parameters, and macromolecular adaptability. We demonstrate that the parameters of a canonical model of the mSlo large-conductance Ca2+-activated K+ (BK) ion channel are non-identifiable with respect to the equilibrium open probability-voltage relationship, a common functional assay. We construct a reduced model with emergent parameters that are identifiable and expressed as combinations of the original mechanistic parameters. These emergent parameters indicate which coordinated changes in mechanistic parameters can leave assay output unchanged. We predict that these coordinated changes are used by allosteric macromolecules to adapt, and we demonstrate how this prediction can be tested experimentally. We show that these predicted parameter compensations are used in the first reported allosteric phenomena: the Bohr effect, by which hemoglobin adapts to varying pH. PMID:28416647

Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters

PubMed Central

Yang, Hyun Mo; Boldrini, José Luiz; Fassoni, Artur César; Freitas, Luiz Fernando Souza; Gomez, Miller Ceron; de Lima, Karla Katerine Barboza; Andrade, Valmir Roberto; Freitas, André Ricardo Ribas

2016-01-01

Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models. PMID:27010654

Controlling measurement-induced nonlocality in the Heisenberg XX model by three-spin interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yu-Xia; Sun, Yu-Hang; Li, Zhao

2018-01-01

We investigate the well-defined measures of measurement-induced nonlocality (MIN) for thermal states of the transverse field XX model, with the addition of three-spin interaction terms being introduced. The results showed that the MINs are very sensitive to system parameters of the chain. The three-spin interactions can serve as flexible parameters for enhancing MINs of the boundary spins, and the maximum enhancement achievable by varying strengths of the three-spin interactions are different for the chain with different number of spins.

Electrochemical energy storage subsystems study, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, F. Q.; Richardson, P. W.; Graff, C. L.; Jordan, M. V.; Patterson, V. L.

1981-01-01

The effects on life cycle costs (LCC) of major design and performance technology parameters for multi kW LEO and GEO energy storage subsystems using NiCd and NiH2 batteries and fuel cell/electrolysis cell devices were examined. Design, performance and LCC dynamic models are developed based on mission and system/subsystem requirements and existing or derived physical and cost data relationships. The models define baseline designs and costs. The major design and performance parameters are each varied to determine their influence on LCC around the baseline values.

Electrochemical Energy Storage Subsystems Study, Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, F. Q.; Richardson, P. W.; Graff, C. L.; Jordan, M. V.; Patterson, V. L.

1981-01-01

The effects on life cycle costs (LCC) of major design and performance technology parameters for multi kW LEO and GEO energy storage subsystems using NiCd and NiH2 batteries and fuel cell/electrolysis cell devices were examined. Design, performance and LCC dynamic models are developed based on mission and system/subsystem requirements and existing or derived physical and cost data relationships. The models are exercised to define baseline designs and costs. Then the major design and performance parameters are each varied to determine their influence on LCC around the baseline values.

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

Genetic Parameters for Milk Yield and Lactation Persistency Using Random Regression Models in Girolando Cattle

PubMed Central

Canaza-Cayo, Ali William; Lopes, Paulo Sávio; da Silva, Marcos Vinicius Gualberto Barbosa; de Almeida Torres, Robledo; Martins, Marta Fonseca; Arbex, Wagner Antonio; Cobuci, Jaime Araujo

2015-01-01

A total of 32,817 test-day milk yield (TDMY) records of the first lactation of 4,056 Girolando cows daughters of 276 sires, collected from 118 herds between 2000 and 2011 were utilized to estimate the genetic parameters for TDMY via random regression models (RRM) using Legendre’s polynomial functions whose orders varied from 3 to 5. In addition, nine measures of persistency in milk yield (PSi) and the genetic trend of 305-day milk yield (305MY) were evaluated. The fit quality criteria used indicated RRM employing the Legendre’s polynomial of orders 3 and 5 for fitting the genetic additive and permanent environment effects, respectively, as the best model. The heritability and genetic correlation for TDMY throughout the lactation, obtained with the best model, varied from 0.18 to 0.23 and from −0.03 to 1.00, respectively. The heritability and genetic correlation for persistency and 305MY varied from 0.10 to 0.33 and from −0.98 to 1.00, respectively. The use of PS7 would be the most suitable option for the evaluation of Girolando cattle. The estimated breeding values for 305MY of sires and cows showed significant and positive genetic trends. Thus, the use of selection indices would be indicated in the genetic evaluation of Girolando cattle for both traits. PMID:26323397

Simulating Silicon Photomultiplier Response to Scintillation Light

PubMed Central

Jha, Abhinav K.; van Dam, Herman T.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Clarkson, Eric

2015-01-01

The response of a Silicon Photomultiplier (SiPM) to optical signals is affected by many factors including photon-detection efficiency, recovery time, gain, optical crosstalk, afterpulsing, dark count, and detector dead time. Many of these parameters vary with overvoltage and temperature. When used to detect scintillation light, there is a complicated non-linear relationship between the incident light and the response of the SiPM. In this paper, we propose a combined discrete-time discrete-event Monte Carlo (MC) model to simulate SiPM response to scintillation light pulses. Our MC model accounts for all relevant aspects of the SiPM response, some of which were not accounted for in the previous models. We also derive and validate analytic expressions for the single-photoelectron response of the SiPM and the voltage drop across the quenching resistance in the SiPM microcell. These analytic expressions consider the effect of all the circuit elements in the SiPM and accurately simulate the time-variation in overvoltage across the microcells of the SiPM. Consequently, our MC model is able to incorporate the variation of the different SiPM parameters with varying overvoltage. The MC model is compared with measurements on SiPM-based scintillation detectors and with some cases for which the response is known a priori. The model is also used to study the variation in SiPM behavior with SiPM-circuit parameter variations and to predict the response of a SiPM-based detector to various scintillators. PMID:26236040

Associations between timing in the baseball pitch and shoulder kinetics, elbow kinetics, and ball speed.

PubMed

Urbin, M A; Fleisig, Glenn S; Abebe, Asheber; Andrews, James R

2013-02-01

A baseball pitcher's ability to maximize ball speed while avoiding shoulder and elbow injuries is an important determinant of a successful career. Pitching injuries are attributed to microtrauma brought about by the repetitive stress of high-magnitude shoulder and elbow kinetics. Over a number of pitches, variations in timing peak angular velocities of trunk segment rotations will be significantly associated with ball speed and upper extremity kinetic parameters. Descriptive laboratory study. Kinematic and kinetic data were derived from 9 to 15 fastball pitches performed by 16 active, healthy collegiate (n = 8) and professional (n = 8) pitchers via 3-dimensional motion capture (240 Hz). Each pitch was decomposed into 4 phases corresponding to the time between peak angular velocities of sequential body segment rotations. Four mixed models were used to evaluate which phases varied significantly in relation to ball speed, peak shoulder proximal force, peak shoulder internal rotation torque, and peak elbow varus torque. Mixed-model parameter coefficient estimates were used to quantify the influence of these variations in timing on ball speed and upper extremity kinetics. All 4 mixed models were significant (P < .05). The time from stride-foot contact to peak pelvis angular velocity varied significantly in relation to all upper extremity kinetic parameters and ball speed. Increased time in this phase correlated with decreases in all parameters. Decreased ball speed also correlated with increased time between peak upper torso and elbow extension angular velocities. Decreased shoulder proximal force also correlated with increased time between peak pelvis and upper torso angular velocities. There are specific phases that vary in relation to ball speed and upper extremity kinetic parameters, reinforcing the importance of effectively and consistently timing segmental interactions. For the specific interactions that varied significantly, increased phase times were associated with decreased kinetics and ball speed. Although increased time within specific phases correlates with decreases in the magnitude of upper extremity kinetics linked to overuse injuries, it also correlates with decreased ball speed. Based on these findings, it may appear that minimizing the risk of injury (ie, decreased kinetics) and maximizing performance quality (ie, increased ball speed) are incompatible with one another. However, there may be an optimal balance in timing that is effective for satisfying both outcomes.

Numerical optimization of Ignition and Growth reactive flow modeling for PAX2A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, E. L.; Schimel, B.; Grantham, W. J.

1996-05-01

Variable metric nonlinear optimization has been successfully applied to the parameterization of unreacted and reacted products thermodynamic equations of state and reactive flow modeling of the HMX based high explosive PAX2A. The NLQPEB nonlinear optimization program has been recently coupled to the LLNL developed two-dimensional high rate continuum modeling programs DYNA2D and CALE. The resulting program has the ability to optimize initial modeling parameters. This new optimization capability was used to optimally parameterize the Ignition and Growth reactive flow model to experimental manganin gauge records. The optimization varied the Ignition and Growth reaction rate model parameters in order to minimize the difference between the calculated pressure histories and the experimental pressure histories.

Thermal modeling of a cryogenic turbopump for space shuttle applications.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowles, P. J.

1971-01-01

Thermal modeling of a cryogenic pump and a hot-gas turbine in a turbopump assembly proposed for the Space Shuttle is described in this paper. A model, developed by identifying the heat-transfer regimes and incorporating their dependencies into a turbopump system model, included heat transfer for two-phase cryogen, hot-gas (200 R) impingement on turbine blades, gas impingement on rotating disks and parallel plate fluid flow. The ?thermal analyzer' program employed to develop this model was the TRW Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer (SINDA). This program uses finite differencing with lumped parameter representation for each node. Also discussed are model development, simulations of turbopump startup/shutdown operations, and the effects of varying turbopump parameters on the thermal performance.

Bayesian semi-parametric analysis of Poisson change-point regression models: application to policy making in Cali, Colombia.

PubMed

Park, Taeyoung; Krafty, Robert T; Sánchez, Alvaro I

2012-07-27

A Poisson regression model with an offset assumes a constant baseline rate after accounting for measured covariates, which may lead to biased estimates of coefficients in an inhomogeneous Poisson process. To correctly estimate the effect of time-dependent covariates, we propose a Poisson change-point regression model with an offset that allows a time-varying baseline rate. When the nonconstant pattern of a log baseline rate is modeled with a nonparametric step function, the resulting semi-parametric model involves a model component of varying dimension and thus requires a sophisticated varying-dimensional inference to obtain correct estimates of model parameters of fixed dimension. To fit the proposed varying-dimensional model, we devise a state-of-the-art MCMC-type algorithm based on partial collapse. The proposed model and methods are used to investigate an association between daily homicide rates in Cali, Colombia and policies that restrict the hours during which the legal sale of alcoholic beverages is permitted. While simultaneously identifying the latent changes in the baseline homicide rate which correspond to the incidence of sociopolitical events, we explore the effect of policies governing the sale of alcohol on homicide rates and seek a policy that balances the economic and cultural dependencies on alcohol sales to the health of the public.

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Linking the fractional derivative and the Lomnitz creep law to non-Newtonian time-varying viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Vikash; Holm, Sverre

2016-09-01

Many of the most interesting complex media are non-Newtonian and exhibit time-dependent behavior of thixotropy and rheopecty. They may also have temporal responses described by power laws. The material behavior is represented by the relaxation modulus and the creep compliance. On the one hand, it is shown that in the special case of a Maxwell model characterized by a linearly time-varying viscosity, the medium's relaxation modulus is a power law which is similar to that of a fractional derivative element often called a springpot. On the other hand, the creep compliance of the time-varying Maxwell model is identified as Lomnitz's logarithmic creep law, making this possibly its first direct derivation. In this way both fractional derivatives and Lomnitz's creep law are linked to time-varying viscosity. A mechanism which yields fractional viscoelasticity and logarithmic creep behavior has therefore been found. Further, as a result of this linking, the curve-fitting parameters involved in the fractional viscoelastic modeling, and the Lomnitz law gain physical interpretation.

Linking the fractional derivative and the Lomnitz creep law to non-Newtonian time-varying viscosity.

PubMed

Pandey, Vikash; Holm, Sverre

2016-09-01

Many of the most interesting complex media are non-Newtonian and exhibit time-dependent behavior of thixotropy and rheopecty. They may also have temporal responses described by power laws. The material behavior is represented by the relaxation modulus and the creep compliance. On the one hand, it is shown that in the special case of a Maxwell model characterized by a linearly time-varying viscosity, the medium's relaxation modulus is a power law which is similar to that of a fractional derivative element often called a springpot. On the other hand, the creep compliance of the time-varying Maxwell model is identified as Lomnitz's logarithmic creep law, making this possibly its first direct derivation. In this way both fractional derivatives and Lomnitz's creep law are linked to time-varying viscosity. A mechanism which yields fractional viscoelasticity and logarithmic creep behavior has therefore been found. Further, as a result of this linking, the curve-fitting parameters involved in the fractional viscoelastic modeling, and the Lomnitz law gain physical interpretation.

The expression of the skeletal muscle force-length relationship in vivo: a simulation study.

PubMed

Winter, Samantha L; Challis, John H

2010-02-21

The force-length relationship is one of the most important mechanical characteristics of skeletal muscle in humans and animals. For a physiologically realistic joint range of motion and therefore range of muscle fibre lengths only part of the force-length curve may be used in vivo, i.e. only a section of the force-length curve is expressed. A generalised model of a mono-articular muscle-tendon complex was used to examine the effect of various muscle architecture parameters on the expressed section of the force-length relationship for a 90 degrees joint range of motion. The parameters investigated were: the ratio of tendon resting length to muscle fibre optimum length (L(TR):L(F.OPT)) (varied from 0.5 to 11.5), the ratio of muscle fibre optimum length to average moment arm (L(F.OPT):r) (varied from 0.5 to 5), the normalised tendon strain at maximum isometric force (c) (varied from 0 to 0.08), the muscle fibre pennation angle (theta) (varied from 0 degrees to 45 degrees) and the joint angle at which the optimum muscle fibre length occurred (phi). The range of values chosen for each parameter was based on values reported in the literature for five human mono-articular muscles with different functional roles. The ratios L(TR):L(F.OPT) and L(F.OPT):r were important in determining the amount of variability in the expressed section of the force-length relationship. The modelled muscle operated over only one limb at intermediate values of these two ratios (L(TR):L(F.OPT)=5; L(F.OPT):r=3), whether this was the ascending or descending limb was determined by the precise values of the other parameters. It was concluded that inter-individual variability in the expressed section of the force-length relationship is possible, particularly for muscles with intermediate values of L(TR):L(F.OPT) and L(F.OPT):r such as the brachialis and vastus lateralis. Understanding the potential for inter-individual variability in the expressed section is important when using muscle models to simulate movement. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic model including piping acoustics of a centrifugal compression system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Helvoirt, Jan; de Jager, Bram

2007-04-01

This paper deals with low-frequency pulsation phenomena in full-scale centrifugal compression systems associated with compressor surge. The Greitzer lumped parameter model is applied to describe the dynamic behavior of an industrial compressor test rig and experimental evidence is provided for the presence of acoustic pulsations in the compression system under study. It is argued that these acoustic phenomena are common for full-scale compression systems where pipe system dynamics have a significant influence on the overall system behavior. The main objective of this paper is to extend the basic compressor model in order to include the relevant pipe system dynamics. For this purpose a pipeline model is proposed, based on previous developments for fluid transmission lines. The connection of this model to the lumped parameter model is accomplished via the selection of appropriate boundary conditions. Validation results will be presented, showing a good agreement between simulation and measurement data. The results indicate that the damping of piping transients depends on the nominal, time-varying pressure and flow velocity. Therefore, model parameters are made dependent on the momentary pressure and a switching nonlinearity is introduced into the model to vary the acoustic damping as a function of flow velocity. These modifications have limited success and the results indicate that a more sophisticated model is required to fully describe all (nonlinear) acoustic effects. However, the very good qualitative results show that the model adequately combines compressor and pipe system dynamics. Therefore, the proposed model forms a step forward in the analysis and modeling of surge in full-scale centrifugal compression systems and opens the path for further developments in this field.

A new methodology based on sensitivity analysis to simplify the recalibration of functional-structural plant models in new conditions.

PubMed

Mathieu, Amélie; Vidal, Tiphaine; Jullien, Alexandra; Wu, QiongLi; Chambon, Camille; Bayol, Benoit; Cournède, Paul-Henry

2018-06-19

Functional-structural plant models (FSPMs) describe explicitly the interactions between plants and their environment at organ to plant scale. However, the high level of description of the structure or model mechanisms makes this type of model very complex and hard to calibrate. A two-step methodology to facilitate the calibration process is proposed here. First, a global sensitivity analysis method was applied to the calibration loss function. It provided first-order and total-order sensitivity indexes that allow parameters to be ranked by importance in order to select the most influential ones. Second, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to quantify the model's quality of fit after calibration with different combinations of selected parameters. The model with the lowest AIC gives the best combination of parameters to select. This methodology was validated by calibrating the model on an independent data set (same cultivar, another year) with the parameters selected in the second step. All the parameters were set to their nominal value; only the most influential ones were re-estimated. Sensitivity analysis applied to the calibration loss function is a relevant method to underline the most significant parameters in the estimation process. For the studied winter oilseed rape model, 11 out of 26 estimated parameters were selected. Then, the model could be recalibrated for a different data set by re-estimating only three parameters selected with the model selection method. Fitting only a small number of parameters dramatically increases the efficiency of recalibration, increases the robustness of the model and helps identify the principal sources of variation in varying environmental conditions. This innovative method still needs to be more widely validated but already gives interesting avenues to improve the calibration of FSPMs.

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, T.J.; Irvine, K.M.; Vierling, K.T.; Vierling, L.A.

2011-01-01

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Sideways fall-induced impact force and its effect on hip fracture risk: a review.

PubMed

Nasiri Sarvi, M; Luo, Y

2017-10-01

Osteoporotic hip fracture, mostly induced in falls among the elderly, is a major health burden over the world. The impact force applied to the hip is an important factor in determining the risk of hip fracture. However, biomechanical researches have yielded conflicting conclusions about whether the fall-induced impact force can be accurately predicted by the available models. It also has been debated whether or not the effect of impact force has been considered appropriately in hip fracture risk assessment tools. This study aimed to provide a state-of-the-art review of the available methods for predicting the impact force, investigate their strengths/limitations, and suggest further improvements in modeling of human body falling. We divided the effective parameters on impact force to two categories: (1) the parameters that can be determined subject-specifically and (2) the parameters that may significantly vary from fall to fall for an individual and cannot be considered subject-specifically. The parameters in the first category can be investigated in human body fall experiments. Video capture of real-life falls was reported as a valuable method to investigate the parameters in the second category that significantly affect the impact force and cannot be determined in human body fall experiments. The analysis of the gathered data revealed that there is a need to develop modified biomechanical models for more accurate prediction of the impact force and appropriately adopt them in hip fracture risk assessment tools in order to achieve a better precision in identifying high-risk patients. Graphical abstract Impact force to the hip induced in sideways falls is affected by many parameters and may remarkably vary from subject to subject.

Towards the mechanical characterization of abdominal wall by inverse analysis.

PubMed

Simón-Allué, R; Calvo, B; Oberai, A A; Barbone, P E

2017-02-01

The aim of this study is to characterize the passive mechanical behaviour of abdominal wall in vivo in an animal model using only external cameras and numerical analysis. The main objective lies in defining a methodology that provides in vivo information of a specific patient without altering mechanical properties. It is demonstrated in the mechanical study of abdomen for hernia purposes. Mechanical tests consisted on pneumoperitoneum tests performed on New Zealand rabbits, where inner pressure was varied from 0mmHg to 12mmHg. Changes in the external abdominal surface were recorded and several points were tracked. Based on their coordinates we reconstructed a 3D finite element model of the abdominal wall, considering an incompressible hyperelastic material model defined by two parameters. The spatial distributions of these parameters (shear modulus and non linear parameter) were calculated by inverse analysis, using two different types of regularization: Total Variation Diminishing (TVD) and Tikhonov (H 1 ). After solving the inverse problem, the distribution of the material parameters were obtained along the abdominal surface. Accuracy of the results was evaluated for the last level of pressure. Results revealed a higher value of the shear modulus in a wide stripe along the craneo-caudal direction, associated with the presence of linea alba in conjunction with fascias and rectus abdominis. Non linear parameter distribution was smoother and the location of higher values varied with the regularization type. Both regularizations proved to yield in an accurate predicted displacement field, but H 1 obtained a smoother material parameter distribution while TVD included some discontinuities. The methodology here presented was able to characterize in vivo the passive non linear mechanical response of the abdominal wall. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of Monte Carlo source parameters on detector design and dose perturbation in small field dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charles, P. H.; Crowe, S. B.; Kairn, T.; Knight, R.; Hill, B.; Kenny, J.; Langton, C. M.; Trapp, J. V.

2014-03-01

To obtain accurate Monte Carlo simulations of small radiation fields, it is important model the initial source parameters (electron energy and spot size) accurately. However recent studies have shown that small field dosimetry correction factors are insensitive to these parameters. The aim of this work is to extend this concept to test if these parameters affect dose perturbations in general, which is important for detector design and calculating perturbation correction factors. The EGSnrc C++ user code cavity was used for all simulations. Varying amounts of air between 0 and 2 mm were deliberately introduced upstream to a diode and the dose perturbation caused by the air was quantified. These simulations were then repeated using a range of initial electron energies (5.5 to 7.0 MeV) and electron spot sizes (0.7 to 2.2 FWHM). The resultant dose perturbations were large. For example 2 mm of air caused a dose reduction of up to 31% when simulated with a 6 mm field size. However these values did not vary by more than 2 % when simulated across the full range of source parameters tested. If a detector is modified by the introduction of air, one can be confident that the response of the detector will be the same across all similar linear accelerators and the Monte Carlo modelling of each machine is not required.

On the applicability of low-dimensional models for convective flow reversals at extreme Prandtl numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannattil, Manu; Pandey, Ambrish; Verma, Mahendra K.; Chakraborty, Sagar

2017-12-01

Constructing simpler models, either stochastic or deterministic, for exploring the phenomenon of flow reversals in fluid systems is in vogue across disciplines. Using direct numerical simulations and nonlinear time series analysis, we illustrate that the basic nature of flow reversals in convecting fluids can depend on the dimensionless parameters describing the system. Specifically, we find evidence of low-dimensional behavior in flow reversals occurring at zero Prandtl number, whereas we fail to find such signatures for reversals at infinite Prandtl number. Thus, even in a single system, as one varies the system parameters, one can encounter reversals that are fundamentally different in nature. Consequently, we conclude that a single general low-dimensional deterministic model cannot faithfully characterize flow reversals for every set of parameter values.

Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) Modeling Method for Gyro Random Noise Using a Robust Kalman Filter

PubMed Central

Huang, Lei

2015-01-01

To solve the problem in which the conventional ARMA modeling methods for gyro random noise require a large number of samples and converge slowly, an ARMA modeling method using a robust Kalman filtering is developed. The ARMA model parameters are employed as state arguments. Unknown time-varying estimators of observation noise are used to achieve the estimated mean and variance of the observation noise. Using the robust Kalman filtering, the ARMA model parameters are estimated accurately. The developed ARMA modeling method has the advantages of a rapid convergence and high accuracy. Thus, the required sample size is reduced. It can be applied to modeling applications for gyro random noise in which a fast and accurate ARMA modeling method is required. PMID:26437409

Modeling Environmental Controls on Tree Water Use at Different Temporal scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, H.; Wang, H.; Simmons, C. T.

2014-12-01

Vegetation covers 70% of land surface, significantly influencing water and carbon exchange between land surface and the atmosphere. Vegetation transpiration (Et) contributes 80% of the global terrestrial evapotranspiration, making an adequate illustration of how important vegetation is to any hydrological or climatological applications. Transpiration can be estimated through upscaling from sap flow measurements on selected trees. Alternatively, transpiration (or tree water use for forests) can be correlated with environmental variables or estimated in land surface simulations in which a canopy conductance (gc) model is often used. Transpiration and canopy conductance are constrained by supply and demand control factors. Some previous studies estimated Et and gc considering the stresses from both the supply (soil water condition) and demand (e.g. temperature, vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation) factors, while some only considered the demand controls. In this study, we examined the performance of two types of models at daily and half-hourly scales for transpiration and canopy conductance modelling based on a native species in South Australia. The results show that the significance of soil water condition for Et and gc modelling varies with time scales. The model parameter values also vary across time scales. This result calls for attention in choosing models and parameter values for soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and land surface modeling.

Reconstruction of the spatial dependence of dielectric and geometrical properties of adhesively bonded structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackay, C.; Hayward, D.; Mulholland, A. J.; McKee, S.; Pethrick, R. A.

2005-06-01

An inverse problem motivated by the nondestructive testing of adhesively bonded structures used in the aircraft industry is studied. Using transmission line theory, a model is developed which, when supplied with electrical and geometrical parameters, accurately predicts the reflection coefficient associated with such structures. Particular attention is paid to modelling the connection between the structures and the equipment used to measure the reflection coefficient. The inverse problem is then studied and an optimization approach employed to recover these electrical and geometrical parameters from experimentally obtained data. In particular the approach focuses on the recovery of spatially varying geometrical parameters as this is paramount to the successful reconstruction of electrical parameters. Reconstructions of structure geometry using this method are found to be in close agreement with experimental observations.

Parametric study of closed wet cooling tower thermal performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qasim, S. M.; Hayder, M. J.

2017-08-01

The present study involves experimental and theoretical analysis to evaluate the thermal performance of modified Closed Wet Cooling Tower (CWCT). The experimental study includes: design, manufacture and testing prototype of a modified counter flow forced draft CWCT. The modification based on addition packing to the conventional CWCT. A series of experiments was carried out at different operational parameters. In view of energy analysis, the thermal performance parameters of the tower are: cooling range, tower approach, cooling capacity, thermal efficiency, heat and mass transfer coefficients. The theoretical study included develops Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models to predicting various thermal performance parameters of the tower. Utilizing experimental data for training and testing, the models simulated by multi-layer back propagation algorithm for varying all operational parameters stated in experimental test.

Sensitivity of Space Station alpha joint robust controller to structural modal parameter variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kumar, Renjith R.; Cooper, Paul A.; Lim, Tae W.

1991-01-01

The photovoltaic array sun tracking control system of Space Station Freedom is described. A synthesis procedure for determining optimized values of the design variables of the control system is developed using a constrained optimization technique. The synthesis is performed to provide a given level of stability margin, to achieve the most responsive tracking performance, and to meet other design requirements. Performance of the baseline design, which is synthesized using predicted structural characteristics, is discussed and the sensitivity of the stability margin is examined for variations of the frequencies, mode shapes and damping ratios of dominant structural modes. The design provides enough robustness to tolerate a sizeable error in the predicted modal parameters. A study was made of the sensitivity of performance indicators as the modal parameters of the dominant modes vary. The design variables are resynthesized for varying modal parameters in order to achieve the most responsive tracking performance while satisfying the design requirements. This procedure of reoptimization design parameters would be useful in improving the control system performance if accurate model data are provided.

Traveltime inversion and error analysis for layered anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fan; Zhou, Hua-wei

2011-02-01

While tilted transverse isotropy (TTI) is a good approximation of the velocity structure for many dipping and fractured strata, it is still challenging to estimate anisotropic depth models even when the tilted angle is known. With the assumption of weak anisotropy, we present a TTI traveltime inversion approach for models consisting of several thickness-varying layers where the anisotropic parameters are constant for each layer. For each model layer the inversion variables consist of the anisotropic parameters ɛ and δ, the tilted angle φ of its symmetry axis, layer velocity along the symmetry axis, and thickness variation of the layer. Using this method and synthetic data, we evaluate the effects of errors in some of the model parameters on the inverted values of the other parameters in crosswell and Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) acquisition geometry. The analyses show that the errors in the layer symmetry axes sensitively affect the inverted values of other parameters, especially δ. However, the impact of errors in δ on the inversion of other parameters is much less than the impact on δ from the errors in other parameters. Hence, a practical strategy is first to invert for the most error-tolerant parameter layer velocity, then progressively invert for ɛ in crosswell geometry or δ in VSP geometry.

From Spiking Neuron Models to Linear-Nonlinear Models

PubMed Central

Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

2011-01-01

Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates. PMID:21283777

From spiking neuron models to linear-nonlinear models.

PubMed

Ostojic, Srdjan; Brunel, Nicolas

2011-01-20

Neurons transform time-varying inputs into action potentials emitted stochastically at a time dependent rate. The mapping from current input to output firing rate is often represented with the help of phenomenological models such as the linear-nonlinear (LN) cascade, in which the output firing rate is estimated by applying to the input successively a linear temporal filter and a static non-linear transformation. These simplified models leave out the biophysical details of action potential generation. It is not a priori clear to which extent the input-output mapping of biophysically more realistic, spiking neuron models can be reduced to a simple linear-nonlinear cascade. Here we investigate this question for the leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF), exponential integrate-and-fire (EIF) and conductance-based Wang-Buzsáki models in presence of background synaptic activity. We exploit available analytic results for these models to determine the corresponding linear filter and static non-linearity in a parameter-free form. We show that the obtained functions are identical to the linear filter and static non-linearity determined using standard reverse correlation analysis. We then quantitatively compare the output of the corresponding linear-nonlinear cascade with numerical simulations of spiking neurons, systematically varying the parameters of input signal and background noise. We find that the LN cascade provides accurate estimates of the firing rates of spiking neurons in most of parameter space. For the EIF and Wang-Buzsáki models, we show that the LN cascade can be reduced to a firing rate model, the timescale of which we determine analytically. Finally we introduce an adaptive timescale rate model in which the timescale of the linear filter depends on the instantaneous firing rate. This model leads to highly accurate estimates of instantaneous firing rates.

A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, D. S.

1977-01-01

The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

Bianchi-III cosmological model with BVDP in modified f(R,T) theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, R. K.; Dua, Heena; Chand, Avtar

2018-06-01

In present paper, we have investigated Bianchi type-III cosmological model in modified f(R,T) theory of gravity as proposed by Harko et al. (Phys. Rev. D 84:024020, 2011). To find the solution of field equations, we have used i) bilinear varying deceleration parameter (BVDP) (Mishra et al. in Astrophys. Space Sci. 361:259, 2016b) ii) the fact that expansion scalar of the space-time is proportional to the one of the components of the shear scalar. Physical and geometrical properties of the model have also been discussed along with the pictorial representation of various parameters. We have observed that presented model is compatible with the recent cosmological observations.

Curvature perturbation and waterfall dynamics in hybrid inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akbar Abolhasani, Ali; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Sasaki, Misao

2011-10-01

We investigate the parameter spaces of hybrid inflation model with special attention paid to the dynamics of waterfall field and curvature perturbations induced from its quantum fluctuations. Depending on the inflaton field value at the time of phase transition and the sharpness of the phase transition inflation can have multiple extended stages. We find that for models with mild phase transition the induced curvature perturbation from the waterfall field is too large to satisfy the COBE normalization. We investigate the model parameter space where the curvature perturbations from the waterfall quantum fluctuations vary between the results of standard hybrid inflation and the results obtained here.

On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

2018-04-01

Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

Prediction of blood pressure and blood flow in stenosed renal arteries using CFD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jhunjhunwala, Pooja; Padole, P. M.; Thombre, S. B.; Sane, Atul

2018-04-01

In the present work an attempt is made to develop a diagnostive tool for renal artery stenosis (RAS) which is inexpensive and in-vitro. To analyse the effects of increase in the degree of severity of stenosis on hypertension and blood flow, haemodynamic parameters are studied by performing numerical simulations. A total of 16 stenosed models with varying degree of stenosis severity from 0-97.11% are assessed numerically. Blood is modelled as a shear-thinning, non-Newtonian fluid using the Carreau model. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis is carried out to compute the values of flow parameters like maximum velocity and maximum pressure attained by blood due to stenosis under pulsatile flow. These values are further used to compute the increase in blood pressure and decrease in available blood flow to kidney. The computed available blood flow and secondary hypertension for varying extent of stenosis are mapped by curve fitting technique using MATLAB and a mathematical model is developed. Based on these mathematical models, a quantification tool is developed for tentative prediction of probable availability of blood flow to the kidney and severity of stenosis if secondary hypertension is known.

The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating.

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Ken Westrick; Sue A. Ferguson; Scott L. Goodrick; Larry Bradshaw; Paul Werth

2004-01-01

Previous studies of model performance at varying resolutions have focused on winter storms or isolated convective events. Little attention has been given to the static high pressure situations that may lead to severe wildfire outbreaks. This study focuses on such an event so as to evaluate the value of increased model resolution for prediction of fire danger. The...

The effect of model resolution in predicting meteorological parameters used in fire danger rating

Treesearch

Jeanne L. Hoadley; Ken Westrick; Sue a. Ferguson; Scott L. Goodrick; Larry Bradshaw; Paul Wreth

2004-01-01

Previous studies of model perfonnance at varying resolutions have focused on winter stonns or isolated convective events. Little attention has been given to the static high pressure situations that may lead to severe wildfire outbreaks. This study focuses on such an event so as to evaluate the value of increased model resolution for prediction of fire danger. The...

Utilization of Expert Knowledge in a Multi-Objective Hydrologic Model Automatic Calibration Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quebbeman, J.; Park, G. H.; Carney, S.; Day, G. N.; Micheletty, P. D.

2016-12-01

Spatially distributed continuous simulation hydrologic models have a large number of parameters for potential adjustment during the calibration process. Traditional manual calibration approaches of such a modeling system is extremely laborious, which has historically motivated the use of automatic calibration procedures. With a large selection of model parameters, achieving high degrees of objective space fitness - measured with typical metrics such as Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, RMSE, etc. - can easily be achieved using a range of evolutionary algorithms. A concern with this approach is the high degree of compensatory calibration, with many similarly performing solutions, and yet grossly varying parameter set solutions. To help alleviate this concern, and mimic manual calibration processes, expert knowledge is proposed for inclusion within the multi-objective functions, which evaluates the parameter decision space. As a result, Pareto solutions are identified with high degrees of fitness, but also create parameter sets that maintain and utilize available expert knowledge resulting in more realistic and consistent solutions. This process was tested using the joint SNOW-17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting method (SAC-SMA) within the Animas River basin in Colorado. Three different elevation zones, each with a range of parameters, resulted in over 35 model parameters simultaneously calibrated. As a result, high degrees of fitness were achieved, in addition to the development of more realistic and consistent parameter sets such as those typically achieved during manual calibration procedures.

Frequency-scanning interferometry using a time-varying Kalman filter for dynamic tracking measurements.

PubMed

Jia, Xingyu; Liu, Zhigang; Tao, Long; Deng, Zhongwen

2017-10-16

Frequency scanning interferometry (FSI) with a single external cavity diode laser (ECDL) and time-invariant Kalman filtering is an effective technique for measuring the distance of a dynamic target. However, due to the hysteresis of the piezoelectric ceramic transducer (PZT) actuator in the ECDL, the optical frequency sweeps of the ECDL exhibit different behaviors, depending on whether the frequency is increasing or decreasing. Consequently, the model parameters of Kalman filter appear time varying in each iteration, which produces state estimation errors with time-invariant filtering. To address this, in this paper, a time-varying Kalman filter is proposed to model the instantaneous movement of a target relative to the different optical frequency tuning durations of the ECDL. The combination of the FSI method with the time-varying Kalman filter was theoretically analyzed, and the simulation and experimental results show the proposed method greatly improves the performance of dynamic FSI measurements.

Formulating Spatially Varying Performance in the Statistical Fusion Framework

PubMed Central

Landman, Bennett A.

2012-01-01

To date, label fusion methods have primarily relied either on global (e.g. STAPLE, globally weighted vote) or voxelwise (e.g. locally weighted vote) performance models. Optimality of the statistical fusion framework hinges upon the validity of the stochastic model of how a rater errs (i.e., the labeling process model). Hitherto, approaches have tended to focus on the extremes of potential models. Herein, we propose an extension to the STAPLE approach to seamlessly account for spatially varying performance by extending the performance level parameters to account for a smooth, voxelwise performance level field that is unique to each rater. This approach, Spatial STAPLE, provides significant improvements over state-of-the-art label fusion algorithms in both simulated and empirical data sets. PMID:22438513

Spatial and temporal variability in growth of southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler; Arnott, Stephen A.; Biondo, Patrick; Martinez-Andrade, Fernando; Wadsworth, Thomas F.

2015-01-01

Delineation of stock structure is important for understanding the ecology and management of many fish populations, particularly those with wide-ranging distributions and high levels of harvest. Southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma) is a popular commercial and recreational species along the southeast Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico, USA. Recent studies have provided genetic and otolith morphology evidence that the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean stocks differ. Using age and growth data from four states (Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) we expanded upon the traditional von Bertalanffy model in order to compare growth rates of putative geographic stocks of southern flounder. We improved the model fitting process by adding a hierarchical Bayesian framework to allow each parameter to vary spatially or temporally as a random effect, as well as log transforming the three model parameters (L∞, K, andt0). Multiple comparisons of parameters showed that growth rates varied (even within states) for females, but less for males. Growth rates were also consistent through time, when long-term data were available. Since within-basin populations are thought to be genetically well-mixed, our results suggest that consistent small-scale environmental conditions (i.e., within estuaries) likely drive growth rates and should be considered when developing broader scale management plans.

Modeling properties of chromospheric evaporation driven by thermal conduction fronts from reconnection shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brannon, Sean; Longcope, Dana

2014-09-01

Magnetic reconnection in the corona results in contracting flare loops, releasing energy into plasma heating and shocks. The hydrodynamic shocks produced in this manner drive thermal conduction fronts (TCFs) which transport energy into the chromosphere and drive upflows (evaporation) and downflows (condensation) in the cooler, denser footpoint plasma. Observations have revealed that certain properties of the transition point between evaporation and condensation (the 'flow reversal point' or FRP), such as temperature and velocity-temperature derivative at the FRP, vary between different flares. These properties may provide a diagnostic tool to determine parameters of the coronal energy release mechanism and the loopmore » atmosphere. In this study, we develop a one-dimensional hydrodynamical flare loop model with a simplified three-region atmosphere (chromosphere/transition region/corona), with TCFs initiated by shocks introduced in the corona. We investigate the effect of two different flare loop parameters (post-shock temperature and transition region temperature ratio) on the FRP properties. We find that both of the evaporation characteristics have scaling-law relationships to the varied flare parameters, and we report the scaling exponents for our model. This provides a means of using spectroscopic observations of the chromosphere as quantitative diagnostics of flare energy release in the corona.« less

Automatic Calibration of a Semi-Distributed Hydrologic Model Using Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekele, E. G.; Nicklow, J. W.

2005-12-01

Hydrologic simulation models need to be calibrated and validated before using them for operational predictions. Spatially-distributed hydrologic models generally have a large number of parameters to capture the various physical characteristics of a hydrologic system. Manual calibration of such models is a very tedious and daunting task, and its success depends on the subjective assessment of a particular modeler, which includes knowledge of the basic approaches and interactions in the model. In order to alleviate these shortcomings, an automatic calibration model, which employs an evolutionary optimization technique known as Particle Swarm Optimizer (PSO) for parameter estimation, is developed. PSO is a heuristic search algorithm that is inspired by social behavior of bird flocking or fish schooling. The newly-developed calibration model is integrated to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT is a physically-based, semi-distributed hydrologic model that was developed to predict the long term impacts of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use, and management conditions. SWAT was calibrated for streamflow and sediment concentration. The calibration process involves parameter specification, whereby sensitive model parameters are identified, and parameter estimation. In order to reduce the number of parameters to be calibrated, parameterization was performed. The methodology is applied to a demonstration watershed known as Big Creek, which is located in southern Illinois. Application results show the effectiveness of the approach and model predictions are significantly improved.

A systematic study of multiple minerals precipitation modelling in wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Tait, Stephan; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Batstone, Damien J

2015-11-15

Mineral solids precipitation is important in wastewater treatment. However approaches to minerals precipitation modelling are varied, often empirical, and mostly focused on single precipitate classes. A common approach, applicable to multi-species precipitates, is needed to integrate into existing wastewater treatment models. The present study systematically tested a semi-mechanistic modelling approach, using various experimental platforms with multiple minerals precipitation. Experiments included dynamic titration with addition of sodium hydroxide to synthetic wastewater, and aeration to progressively increase pH and induce precipitation in real piggery digestate and sewage sludge digestate. The model approach consisted of an equilibrium part for aqueous phase reactions and a kinetic part for minerals precipitation. The model was fitted to dissolved calcium, magnesium, total inorganic carbon and phosphate. Results indicated that precipitation was dominated by the mineral struvite, forming together with varied and minor amounts of calcium phosphate and calcium carbonate. The model approach was noted to have the advantage of requiring a minimal number of fitted parameters, so the model was readily identifiable. Kinetic rate coefficients, which were statistically fitted, were generally in the range 0.35-11.6 h(-1) with confidence intervals of 10-80% relative. Confidence regions for the kinetic rate coefficients were often asymmetric with model-data residuals increasing more gradually with larger coefficient values. This suggests that a large kinetic coefficient could be used when actual measured data is lacking for a particular precipitate-matrix combination. Correlation between the kinetic rate coefficients of different minerals was low, indicating that parameter values for individual minerals could be independently fitted (keeping all other model parameters constant). Implementation was therefore relatively flexible, and would be readily expandable to include other minerals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dealing with the time-varying parameter problem of robot manipulators performing path tracking tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Y. D.; Middleton, R. H.

1992-01-01

Many robotic applications involve time-varying payloads during the operation of the robot. It is therefore of interest to consider control schemes that deal with time-varying parameters. Using the properties of the element by element (or Hadarmad) product of matrices, we obtain the robot dynamics in parameter-isolated form, from which a new control scheme is developed. The controller proposed yields zero asymptotic tracking errors when applied to robotic systems with time-varying parameters by using a switching type control law. The results obtained are global in the initial state of the robot, and can be applied to rapidly varying systems.

Commercial absorption chiller models for evaluation of control strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koeppel, E.A.; Klein, S.A.; Mitchell, J.W.

1995-08-01

A steady-state computer simulation model of a direct fired double-effect water-lithium bromide absorption chiller in the parallel-flow configuration was developed from first principles. Unknown model parameters such as heat transfer coefficients were determined by matching the model`s calculated state points and coefficient of performance (COP) against nominal full-load operating data and COPs obtained from a manufacturer`s catalog. The model compares favorably with the manufacturer`s performance ratings for varying water circuit (chilled and cooling) temperatures at full load conditions and for chiller part-load performance. The model was used (1) to investigate the effect of varying the water circuit flow rates withmore » the chiller load and (2) to optimize chiller part-load performance with respect to the distribution and flow of the weak solution.« less

LAGEOS geodetic analysis-SL7.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, D. E.; Kolenkiewicz, R.; Dunn, P. J.; Klosko, S. M.; Robbins, J. W.; Torrence, M. H.; Williamson, R. G.; Pavlis, E. C.; Douglas, N. B.; Fricke, S. K.

1991-01-01

Laser ranging measurements to the LAGEOS satellite from 1976 through 1989 are related via geodetic and orbital theories to a variety of geodetic and geodynamic parameters. The SL7.1 analyses are explained of this data set including the estimation process for geodetic parameters such as Earth's gravitational constant (GM), those describing the Earth's elasticity properties (Love numbers), and the temporally varying geodetic parameters such as Earth's orientation (polar motion and Delta UT1) and tracking site horizontal tectonic motions. Descriptions of the reference systems, tectonic models, and adopted geodetic constants are provided; these are the framework within which the SL7.1 solution takes place. Estimates of temporal variations in non-conservative force parameters are included in these SL7.1 analyses as well as parameters describing the orbital states at monthly epochs. This information is useful in further refining models used to describe close-Earth satellite behavior. Estimates of intersite motions and individual tracking site motions computed through the network adjustment scheme are given. Tabulations of tracking site eccentricities, data summaries, estimated monthly orbital and force model parameters, polar motion, Earth rotation, and tracking station coordinate results are also provided.

Evaluating the Controls on Magma Ascent Rates Through Numerical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, M. E.; Neuberg, J. W.

2015-12-01

The estimation of the magma ascent rate is a key factor in predicting styles of volcanic activity and relies on the understanding of how strongly the ascent rate is controlled by different magmatic parameters. The ability to link potential changes in such parameters to monitoring data is an essential step to be able to use these data as a predictive tool. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models that assess the influence of individual model parameters such as the magmatic water content, temperature or bulk magma composition on the magma flow in the conduit during an extrusive dome eruption. By systematically varying these parameters we assess their relative importance to changes in ascent rate. The results indicate that potential changes to conduit geometry and excess pressure in the magma chamber are amongst the dominant controlling variables that effect ascent rate, but the single most important parameter is the volatile content (assumed in this case as only water). Modelling this parameter across a range of reported values causes changes in the calculated ascent velocities of up to 800%, triggering fluctuations in ascent rates that span the potential threshold between effusive and explosive eruptions.

Adaptive Missile Flight Control for Complex Aerodynamic Phenomena

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-08-09

at high maneuvering conditions motivate guidance approaches that can accommodate uncertainty. Flight control algorithms are one component...performance, but system uncertainty is not directly addressed. Linear, parameter-varying37,38 approaches for munitions expand on optimal control by... post -canard stall. We propose to model these complex aerodynamic mechanisms and use these models in formulating flight controllers within the

The structure and dynamics of tornado-like vortices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nolan, D.S.; Farrell, B.F.

The structure and dynamics of axisymmetric tornado-like vortices are explored with a numerical model of axisymmetric incompressible flow based on recently developed numerical methods. The model is first shown to compare favorably with previous results and is then used to study the effects of varying the major parameters controlling the vortex: the strength of the convective forcing, the strength of the rotational forcing, and the magnitude of the model eddy viscosity. Dimensional analysis of the model problem indicates that the results must depend on only two dimensionless parameters. The natural choices for these two parameters are a convective Reynolds numbermore » (based on the velocity scale associated with the convective forcing) and a parameter analogous to the swirl ratio in laboratory models. However, by examining sets of simulations with different model parameters it is found that a dimensionless parameter known as the vortex Reynolds number, which is the ratio of the far-field circulation to the eddy viscosity, is more effective than the convention swirl ratio for predicting the structure of the vortex. The parameter space defined by the choices for model parameters is further explored with large sets of numerical simulations. For much of this parameter space it is confirmed that the vortex structure and time-dependent behavior depend strongly on the vortex Reynolds number and only weakly on the convective Reynolds number. The authors also find that for higher convective Reynolds numbers, the maximum possible wind speed increases, and the rotational forcing necessary to achieve that wind speed decreases. Physical reasoning is used to explain this behavior, and implications for tornado dynamics are discussed.« less

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

A computational model of selection by consequences.

PubMed

McDowell, J J

2004-05-01

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of computational experiments that arranged reinforcement according to random-interval (RI) schedules. The quantitative features of the model were varied over wide ranges in these experiments, and many of the qualitative features of the model also were varied. The digital organism consistently showed a hyperbolic relation between response and reinforcement rates, and this hyperbolic description of the data was consistently better than the description provided by other, similar, function forms. In addition, the parameters of the hyperbola varied systematically with the quantitative, and some of the qualitative, properties of the model in ways that were consistent with findings from biological organisms. These results suggest that the material events responsible for an organism's responding on RI schedules are computationally equivalent to Darwinian selection by consequences. They also suggest that the computational model developed here is worth pursuing further as a possible dynamic account of behavior.

Propensity and stickiness in the naming game: Tipping fractions of minorities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Andrew M.; Szymanski, Boleslaw K.; Lim, Chjan C.

2014-10-01

Agent-based models of the binary naming game are generalized here to represent a family of models parameterized by the introduction of two continuous parameters. These parameters define varying listener-speaker interactions on the individual level with one parameter controlling the speaker and the other controlling the listener of each interaction. The major finding presented here is that the generalized naming game preserves the existence of critical thresholds for the size of committed minorities. Above such threshold, a committed minority causes a fast (in time logarithmic in size of the network) convergence to consensus, even when there are other parameters influencing the system. Below such threshold, reaching consensus requires time exponential in the size of the network. Moreover, the two introduced parameters cause bifurcations in the stabilities of the system's fixed points and may lead to changes in the system's consensus.

Effect of Surface Tension Anisotropy and Welding Parameters on Initial Instability Dynamics During Solidification: A Phase-Field Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Fengyi; Wei, Yanhong

2018-05-01

The effects of surface tension anisotropy and welding parameters on initial instability dynamics during gas tungsten arc welding of an Al-alloy are investigated by a quantitative phase-field model. The results show that the surface tension anisotropy and welding parameters affect the initial instability dynamics in different ways during welding. The surface tension anisotropy does not influence the solute diffusion process but does affect the stability of the solid/liquid interface during solidification. The welding parameters affect the initial instability dynamics by varying the growth rate and thermal gradient. The incubation time decreases, and the initial wavelength remains stable as the welding speed increases. When welding power increases, the incubation time increases and the initial wavelength slightly increases. Experiments were performed for the same set of welding parameters used in modeling, and the results of the experiments and simulations were in good agreement.

Family of columns isospectral to gravity-loaded columns with tip force: A discrete approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandran, Nirmal; Ganguli, Ranjan

2018-06-01

A discrete model is introduced to analyze transverse vibration of straight, clamped-free (CF) columns of variable cross-sectional geometry under the influence of gravity and a constant axial force at the tip. The discrete model is used to determine critical combinations of loading parameters - a gravity parameter and a tip force parameter - that cause onset of dynamic instability in the CF column. A methodology, based on matrix-factorization, is described to transform the discrete model into a family of models corresponding to weightless and unloaded clamped-free (WUCF) columns, each with a transverse vibration spectrum isospectral to the original model. Characteristics of models in this isospectral family are dependent on three transformation parameters. A procedure is discussed to convert the isospectral discrete model description into geometric description of realistic columns i.e. from the discrete model, we construct isospectral WUCF columns with rectangular cross-sections varying in width and depth. As part of numerical studies to demonstrate efficacy of techniques presented, frequency parameters of a uniform column and three types of tapered CF columns under different combinations of loading parameters are obtained from the discrete model. Critical combinations of these parameters for a typical tapered column are derived. These results match with published results. Example CF columns, under arbitrarily-chosen combinations of loading parameters are considered and for each combination, isospectral WUCF columns are constructed. Role of transformation parameters in determining characteristics of isospectral columns is discussed and optimum values are deduced. Natural frequencies of these WUCF columns computed using Finite Element Method (FEM) match well with those of the given gravity-loaded CF column with tip force, hence confirming isospectrality.

[Temporal and spatial heterogeneity analysis of optimal value of sensitive parameters in ecological process model: The BIOME-BGC model as an example.

PubMed

Li, Yi Zhe; Zhang, Ting Long; Liu, Qiu Yu; Li, Ying

2018-01-01

The ecological process models are powerful tools for studying terrestrial ecosystem water and carbon cycle at present. However, there are many parameters for these models, and weather the reasonable values of these parameters were taken, have important impact on the models simulation results. In the past, the sensitivity and the optimization of model parameters were analyzed and discussed in many researches. But the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal parameters is less concerned. In this paper, the BIOME-BGC model was used as an example. In the evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest and C3 grassland, the sensitive parameters of the model were selected by constructing the sensitivity judgment index with two experimental sites selected under each vegetation type. The objective function was constructed by using the simulated annealing algorithm combined with the flux data to obtain the monthly optimal values of the sensitive parameters at each site. Then we constructed the temporal heterogeneity judgment index, the spatial heterogeneity judgment index and the temporal and spatial heterogeneity judgment index to quantitatively analyze the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters. The results showed that the sensitivity of BIOME-BGC model parameters was different under different vegetation types, but the selected sensitive parameters were mostly consistent. The optimal values of the sensitive parameters of BIOME-BGC model mostly presented time-space heterogeneity to different degrees which varied with vegetation types. The sensitive parameters related to vegetation physiology and ecology had relatively little temporal and spatial heterogeneity while those related to environment and phenology had generally larger temporal and spatial heterogeneity. In addition, the temporal heterogeneity of the optimal values of the model sensitive parameters showed a significant linear correlation with the spatial heterogeneity under the three vegetation types. According to the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the optimal values, the parameters of the BIOME-BGC model could be classified in order to adopt different parameter strategies in practical application. The conclusion could help to deeply understand the parameters and the optimal values of the ecological process models, and provide a way or reference for obtaining the reasonable values of parameters in models application.

Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen models.

Mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Surakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astuti, H. N.; Saputro, D. R. S.; Susanti, Y.

2017-06-01

MGWR model is combination of linear regression model and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, therefore, MGWR model could produce parameter estimation that had global parameter estimation, and other parameter that had local parameter in accordance with its observation location. The linkage between locations of the observations expressed in specific weighting that is adaptive bi-square. In this research, we applied MGWR model with weighted adaptive bi-square for case of DHF in Surakarta based on 10 factors (variables) that is supposed to influence the number of people with DHF. The observation unit in the research is 51 urban villages and the variables are number of inhabitants, number of houses, house index, many public places, number of healthy homes, number of Posyandu, area width, level population density, welfare of the family, and high-region. Based on this research, we obtained 51 MGWR models. The MGWR model were divided into 4 groups with significant variable is house index as a global variable, an area width as a local variable and the remaining variables vary in each. Global variables are variables that significantly affect all locations, while local variables are variables that significantly affect a specific location.

Feasibility of Equivalent Dipole Models for Electroencephalogram-Based Brain Computer Interfaces.

PubMed

Schimpf, Paul H

2017-09-15

This article examines the localization errors of equivalent dipolar sources inverted from the surface electroencephalogram in order to determine the feasibility of using their location as classification parameters for non-invasive brain computer interfaces. Inverse localization errors are examined for two head models: a model represented by four concentric spheres and a realistic model based on medical imagery. It is shown that the spherical model results in localization ambiguity such that a number of dipolar sources, with different azimuths and varying orientations, provide a near match to the electroencephalogram of the best equivalent source. No such ambiguity exists for the elevation of inverted sources, indicating that for spherical head models, only the elevation of inverted sources (and not the azimuth) can be expected to provide meaningful classification parameters for brain-computer interfaces. In a realistic head model, all three parameters of the inverted source location are found to be reliable, providing a more robust set of parameters. In both cases, the residual error hypersurfaces demonstrate local minima, indicating that a search for the best-matching sources should be global. Source localization error vs. signal-to-noise ratio is also demonstrated for both head models.

Parametric Study of Synthetic-Jet-Based Flow Control on a Vertical Tail Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monastero, Marianne; Lindstrom, Annika; Beyar, Michael; Amitay, Michael

2015-11-01

Separation control over the rudder of the vertical tail of a commercial airplane using synthetic-jet-based flow control can lead to a reduction in tail size, with an associated decrease in drag and increase in fuel savings. A parametric, experimental study was undertaken using an array of finite span synthetic jets to investigate the sensitivity of the enhanced vertical tail side force to jet parameters, such as jet spanwise spacing and jet momentum coefficient. A generic wind tunnel model was designed and fabricated to fundamentally study the effects of the jet parameters at varying rudder deflection and model sideslip angles. Wind tunnel results obtained from pressure measurements and tuft flow visualization in the Rensselaer Polytechnic Subsonic Wind Tunnel show a decrease in separation severity and increase in model performance in comparison to the baseline, non-actuated case. The sensitivity to various parameters will be presented.

Time-varying SMART design and data analysis methods for evaluating adaptive intervention effects.

PubMed

Dai, Tianjiao; Shete, Sanjay

2016-08-30

In a standard two-stage SMART design, the intermediate response to the first-stage intervention is measured at a fixed time point for all participants. Subsequently, responders and non-responders are re-randomized and the final outcome of interest is measured at the end of the study. To reduce the side effects and costs associated with first-stage interventions in a SMART design, we proposed a novel time-varying SMART design in which individuals are re-randomized to the second-stage interventions as soon as a pre-fixed intermediate response is observed. With this strategy, the duration of the first-stage intervention will vary. We developed a time-varying mixed effects model and a joint model that allows for modeling the outcomes of interest (intermediate and final) and the random durations of the first-stage interventions simultaneously. The joint model borrows strength from the survival sub-model in which the duration of the first-stage intervention (i.e., time to response to the first-stage intervention) is modeled. We performed a simulation study to evaluate the statistical properties of these models. Our simulation results showed that the two modeling approaches were both able to provide good estimations of the means of the final outcomes of all the embedded interventions in a SMART. However, the joint modeling approach was more accurate for estimating the coefficients of first-stage interventions and time of the intervention. We conclude that the joint modeling approach provides more accurate parameter estimates and a higher estimated coverage probability than the single time-varying mixed effects model, and we recommend the joint model for analyzing data generated from time-varying SMART designs. In addition, we showed that the proposed time-varying SMART design is cost-efficient and equally effective in selecting the optimal embedded adaptive intervention as the standard SMART design.

Warpage analysis on thin shell part using response surface methodology (RSM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulhasif, Z.; Shayfull, Z.; Nasir, S. M.; Fathullah, M.; Hazwan, M. H. M.

2017-09-01

The optimisation of moulding parameters appropriate to reduce warpage defects produce using Autodesk Moldflow Insight (AMI) 2012 software The product is injected by using Acrylonitrile-Butadiene-Styrene (ABS) materials. This analysis has processing parameter that varies in melting temperature, mould temperature, packing pressure and packing time. Design of Experiments (DOE) has been integrated to obtain a polynomial model using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The Glowworm Swarm Optimisation (GSO) method is used to predict a best combination parameters to minimise warpage defect in order to produce high quality parts.

Influence of manufacturing parameters on the strength of PLA parts using Layered Manufacturing technique: A statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaya Christiyan, K. G.; Chandrasekhar, U.; Mathivanan, N. Rajesh; Venkateswarlu, K.

2018-02-01

A 3D printing was successfully used to fabricate samples of Polylactic Acid (PLA). Processing parameters such as Lay-up speed, Lay-up thickness, and printing nozzle were varied. All samples were tested for flexural strength using three point load test. A statistical mathematical model was developed to correlate the processing parameters with flexural strength. The result clearly demonstrated that the lay-up thickness and nozzle diameter influenced flexural strength significantly, whereas lay-up speed hardly influenced the flexural strength.

Essays in energy economics: The electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Chombo, Eduardo

Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and error-correction models with time varying parameters: The Mexican case. In this essay we show how some flexibility can be allowed in modeling the parameters of the electricity demand function by employing the time varying coefficient (TVC) cointegrating model developed by Park and Hahn (1999). With the income elasticity of electricity demand modeled as a TVC, we perform tests to examine the adequacy of the proposed model against the cointegrating regression with fixed coefficients, as well as against the spuriousness of the regression with TVC. The results reject the specification of the model with fixed coefficients and favor the proposed model. We also show how some flexibility is gained in the specification of the error correction model based on the proposed TVC cointegrating model, by including more lags of the error correction term as predetermined variables. Finally, we present the results of some out-of-sample forecast comparison among competing models. Electricity demand and supply in Mexico. In this essay we present a simplified model of the Mexican electricity transmission network. We use the model to approximate the marginal cost of supplying electricity to consumers in different locations and at different times of the year. We examine how costs and system operations will be affected by proposed investments in generation and transmission capacity given a forecast of growth in regional electricity demands. Decomposing electricity prices with jumps. In this essay we propose a model that decomposes electricity prices into two independent stochastic processes: one that represents the "normal" pattern of electricity prices and the other that captures temporary shocks, or "jumps", with non-lasting effects in the market. Each contains specific mean reverting parameters to estimate. In order to identify such components we specify a state-space model with regime switching. Using Kim's (1994) filtering algorithm we estimate the parameters of the model, the transition probabilities and the unobservable components for the mean adjusted series of New South Wales' electricity prices. Finally, bootstrap simulations were performed to estimate the expected contribution of each of the components in the overall electricity prices.

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Urban, Nathan M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.; Jeffery, Nicole

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. It is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

Parametric output-only identification of time-varying structures using a kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhi-Sai; Liu, Li; Zhou, Si-Da; Yu, Lei; Naets, Frank; Heylen, Ward; Desmet, Wim

2018-01-01

The problem of parametric output-only identification of time-varying structures in a recursive manner is considered. A kernelized time-dependent autoregressive moving average (TARMA) model is proposed by expanding the time-varying model parameters onto the basis set of kernel functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. An exponentially weighted kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA identification scheme is proposed, and a sliding-window technique is subsequently applied to fix the computational complexity for each consecutive update, allowing the method to operate online in time-varying environments. The proposed sliding-window exponentially weighted kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA method is employed for the identification of a laboratory time-varying structure consisting of a simply supported beam and a moving mass sliding on it. The proposed method is comparatively assessed against an existing recursive pseudo-linear regression TARMA method via Monte Carlo experiments and shown to be capable of accurately tracking the time-varying dynamics. Furthermore, the comparisons demonstrate the superior achievable accuracy, lower computational complexity and enhanced online identification capability of the proposed kernel recursive extended least squares TARMA approach.

Indicators of Arctic Sea Ice Bistability in Climate Model Simulations and Observations

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

ultimately developed a novel mathematical method to solve the system of equations involving the addition of a numerical “ ghost ” layer, as described in the...balance models ( EBMs ) and (ii) seasonally-varying single-column models (SCMs). As described in Approach item #1, we developed an idealized model that...includes both latitudinal and seasonal variations (Fig. 1). The model reduces to a standard EBM or SCM as limiting cases in the parameter space, thus

Is there a `universal' dynamic zero-parameter hydrological model? Evaluation of a dynamic Budyko model in US and India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patnaik, S.; Biswal, B.; Sharma, V. C.

2017-12-01

River flow varies greatly in space and time, and the single biggest challenge for hydrologists and ecologists around the world is the fact that most rivers are either ungauged or poorly gauged. Although it is relatively easier to predict long-term average flow of a river using the `universal' zero-parameter Budyko model, lack of data hinders short-term flow prediction at ungauged locations using traditional hydrological models as they require observed flow data for model calibration. Flow prediction in ungauged basins thus requires a dynamic 'zero-parameter' hydrological model. One way to achieve this is to regionalize a dynamic hydrological model's parameters. However, a regionalization method based zero-parameter dynamic hydrological model is not `universal'. An alternative attempt was made recently to develop a zero-parameter dynamic model by defining an instantaneous dryness index as a function of antecedent rainfall and solar energy inputs with the help of a decay function and using the original Budyko function. The model was tested first in 63 US catchments and later in 50 Indian catchments. The median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) was found to be close to 0.4 in both the cases. Although improvements need to be incorporated in order to use the model for reliable prediction, the main aim of this study was to rather understand hydrological processes. The overall results here seem to suggest that the dynamic zero-parameter Budyko model is `universal.' In other words natural catchments around the world are strikingly similar to each other in the way they respond to hydrologic inputs; we thus need to focus more on utilizing catchment similarities in hydrological modelling instead of over parameterizing our models.

Surface Wave Tomography with Spatially Varying Smoothing Based on Continuous Model Regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuanming; Yao, Huajian

2017-03-01

Surface wave tomography based on continuous regionalization of model parameters is widely used to invert for 2-D phase or group velocity maps. An inevitable problem is that the distribution of ray paths is far from homogeneous due to the spatially uneven distribution of stations and seismic events, which often affects the spatial resolution of the tomographic model. We present an improved tomographic method with a spatially varying smoothing scheme that is based on the continuous regionalization approach. The smoothness of the inverted model is constrained by the Gaussian a priori model covariance function with spatially varying correlation lengths based on ray path density. In addition, a two-step inversion procedure is used to suppress the effects of data outliers on tomographic models. Both synthetic and real data are used to evaluate this newly developed tomographic algorithm. In the synthetic tests, when the contrived model has different scales of anomalies but with uneven ray path distribution, we compare the performance of our spatially varying smoothing method with the traditional inversion method, and show that the new method is capable of improving the recovery in regions of dense ray sampling. For real data applications, the resulting phase velocity maps of Rayleigh waves in SE Tibet produced using the spatially varying smoothing method show similar features to the results with the traditional method. However, the new results contain more detailed structures and appears to better resolve the amplitude of anomalies. From both synthetic and real data tests we demonstrate that our new approach is useful to achieve spatially varying resolution when used in regions with heterogeneous ray path distribution.

Model of optical phantoms thermal response upon irradiation with 975 nm dermatological laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wróbel, M. S.; Bashkatov, A. N.; Yakunin, A. N.; Avetisyan, Yu. A.; Genina, E. A.; Galla, S.; Sekowska, A.; Truchanowicz, D.; Cenian, A.; Jedrzejewska-Szczerska, M.; Tuchin, V. V.

2018-04-01

We have developed a numerical model describing the optical and thermal behavior of optical tissue phantoms upon laser irradiation. According to our previous studies, the phantoms can be used as substitute of real skin from the optical, as well as thermal point of view. However, the thermal parameters are not entirely similar to those of real tissues thus there is a need to develop mathematical model, describing the thermal and optical response of such materials. This will facilitate the correction factors, which would be invaluable in translation between measurements on skin phantom to real tissues, and gave a good representation of a real case application. Here, we present the model dependent on the data of our optical phantoms fabricated and measured in our previous preliminary study. The ambiguity between the modeling and the thermal measurements depend on lack of accurate knowledge of material's thermal properties and some exact parameters of the laser beam. Those parameters were varied in the simulation, to provide an overview of possible parameters' ranges and the magnitude of thermal response.

A model-based analysis of extinction ratio effects on phase-OTDR distributed acoustic sensing system performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aktas, Metin; Maral, Hakan; Akgun, Toygar

2018-02-01

Extinction ratio is an inherent limiting factor that has a direct effect on the detection performance of phase-OTDR based distributed acoustics sensing systems. In this work we present a model based analysis of Rayleigh scattering to simulate the effects of extinction ratio on the received signal under varying signal acquisition scenarios and system parameters. These signal acquisition scenarios are constructed to represent typically observed cases such as multiple vibration sources cluttered around the target vibration source to be detected, continuous wave light sources with center frequency drift, varying fiber optic cable lengths and varying ADC bit resolutions. Results show that an insufficient ER can result in high optical noise floor and effectively hide the effects of elaborate system improvement efforts.

Using groundwater temperature data to constrain parameter estimation in a groundwater flow model of a wetland system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bravo, Hector R.; Jiang, Feng; Hunt, Randall J.

2002-01-01

Parameter estimation is a powerful way to calibrate models. While head data alone are often insufficient to estimate unique parameters due to model nonuniqueness, flow‐and‐heat‐transport modeling can constrain estimation and allow simultaneous estimation of boundary fluxes and hydraulic conductivity. In this work, synthetic and field models that did not converge when head data were used did converge when head and temperature were used. Furthermore, frequency domain analyses of head and temperature data allowed selection of appropriate modeling timescales. Inflows in the Wilton, Wisconsin, wetlands could be estimated over periods such as a growing season and over periods of a few days when heads were nearly steady and groundwater temperature varied during the day. While this methodology is computationally more demanding than traditional head calibration, the results gained are unobtainable using the traditional approach. These results suggest that temperature can efficiently supplement head data in systems where accurate flux calibration targets are unavailable.

Modeling Water Flux at the Base of the Rooting Zone for Soils with Varying Glacial Parent Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, S.; Ellett, K. M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Olyphant, G. A.

2013-12-01

Soils of varying glacial parent materials in the Great Lakes Region (USA) are characterized by thin unsaturated zones and widespread use of agricultural pesticides and nutrients that affect shallow groundwater. To better our understanding of the fate and transport of contaminants, improved models of water fluxes through the vadose zones of various hydrogeologic settings are warranted. Furthermore, calibrated unsaturated zone models can be coupled with watershed models, providing a means for predicting the impact of varying climate scenarios on agriculture in the region. To address these issues, a network of monitoring sites was developed in Indiana that provides continuous measurements of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), soil volumetric water content (VWC), and soil matric potential to parameterize and calibrate models. Flux at the base of the root zone is simulated using two models of varying complexity: 1) the HYDRUS model, which numerically solves the Richards equation, and 2) the soil-water-balance (SWB) model, which assumes vertical flow under a unit gradient with infiltration and evapotranspiration treated as separate, sequential processes. Soil hydraulic parameters are determined based on laboratory data, a pedo-transfer function (ROSETTA), field measurements (Guelph permeameter), and parameter optimization. Groundwater elevation data are available at three of six sites to establish the base of the unsaturated zone model domain. Initial modeling focused on the groundwater recharge season (Nov-Feb) when PET is limited and much of the annual vertical flux occurs. HYDRUS results indicate that base of root zone fluxes at a site underlain by glacial ice-contact parent materials are 48% of recharge season precipitation (VWC RMSE=8.2%), while SWB results indicate that fluxes are 43% (VWC RMSE=3.7%). Due in part to variations in surface boundary conditions, more variable fluxes were obtained for a site underlain by alluvium with the SWB model (68% of recharge season precipitation, VWC RMSE=7.0%) predicting much greater drainage than HYDRUS (38% of recharge season precipitation, VWC RMSE=6.6%). Results also show that when calculating drainage flux over the recharge period, HYDRUS is highly sensitive to model initialization using observed water content from in-situ instrumentation. Simulated recharge season drainage flux is as much as 3.5 times higher when a one-month spin-up period was performed in the HYDRUS model for the same site. SWB results are less sensitive to water content initialization, but drainage flux is 1.6 times higher at one site using the same spin-up analysis. The long-term goals of this effort are to leverage the robust calibration data set to establish optimal approaches for determining hydraulic parameters such that water fluxes in the lower vadose zone can be modeled for a wider range of geomorphic settings where calibration data are unavailable.

Effect of correlated observation error on parameters, predictions, and uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Green, Christopher T.

2013-01-01

Correlations among observation errors are typically omitted when calculating observation weights for model calibration by inverse methods. We explore the effects of omitting these correlations on estimates of parameters, predictions, and uncertainties. First, we develop a new analytical expression for the difference in parameter variance estimated with and without error correlations for a simple one-parameter two-observation inverse model. Results indicate that omitting error correlations from both the weight matrix and the variance calculation can either increase or decrease the parameter variance, depending on the values of error correlation (ρ) and the ratio of dimensionless scaled sensitivities (rdss). For small ρ, the difference in variance is always small, but for large ρ, the difference varies widely depending on the sign and magnitude of rdss. Next, we consider a groundwater reactive transport model of denitrification with four parameters and correlated geochemical observation errors that are computed by an error-propagation approach that is new for hydrogeologic studies. We compare parameter estimates, predictions, and uncertainties obtained with and without the error correlations. Omitting the correlations modestly to substantially changes parameter estimates, and causes both increases and decreases of parameter variances, consistent with the analytical expression. Differences in predictions for the models calibrated with and without error correlations can be greater than parameter differences when both are considered relative to their respective confidence intervals. These results indicate that including observation error correlations in weighting for nonlinear regression can have important effects on parameter estimates, predictions, and their respective uncertainties.

Understanding which parameters control shallow ascent of silicic effusive magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Mark E.; Neuberg, Jurgen W.

2014-11-01

The estimation of the magma ascent rate is key to predicting volcanic activity and relies on the understanding of how strongly the ascent rate is controlled by different magmatic parameters. Linking potential changes of such parameters to monitoring data is an essential step to be able to use these data as a predictive tool. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models Soufrière that assess the influence of individual model parameters such as the magmatic water content, temperature or bulk magma composition on the magma flow in the conduit during an extrusive dome eruption. By systematically varying these parameters we assess their relative importance to changes in ascent rate. We show that variability in the rate of low frequency seismicity, assumed to correlate directly with the rate of magma movement, can be used as an indicator for changes in ascent rate and, therefore, eruptive activity. The results indicate that conduit diameter and excess pressure in the magma chamber are amongst the dominant controlling variables, but the single most important parameter is the volatile content (assumed as only water). Modeling this parameter in the range of reported values causes changes in the calculated ascent velocities of up to 800%.

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE PAGES

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; ...

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Non-linear dynamic analysis of geared systems, part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singh, Rajendra; Houser, Donald R.; Kahraman, Ahmet

1990-01-01

A good understanding of the steady state dynamic behavior of a geared system is required in order to design reliable and quiet transmissions. This study focuses on a system containing a spur gear pair with backlash and periodically time-varying mesh stiffness, and rolling element bearings with clearance type non-linearities. A dynamic finite element model of the linear time-invariant (LTI) system is developed. Effects of several system parameters, such as torsional and transverse flexibilities of the shafts and prime mover/load inertias, on free and force vibration characteristics are investigated. Several reduced order LTI models are developed and validated by comparing their eigen solution with the finite element model results. Several key system parameters such as mean load and damping ratio are identified and their effects on the non-linear frequency response are evaluated quantitatively. Other fundamental issues such as the dynamic coupling between non-linear modes, dynamic interactions between component non-linearities and time-varying mesh stiffness, and the existence of subharmonic and chaotic solutions including routes to chaos have also been examined in depth.

IMPORTANCE OF MOVEMENT VARIES IN STATIC AND DYNAMIC LANDSCAPES

EPA Science Inventory

The relative sensitivity of spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) to movement parameters is a topic of ongoing debate among theoretical ecologists. In this study, we add additional realism to this debate by examining a SEPM's sensitivity to dispersal ability in static vs....

Increase of Breakthrough Pressure of Cotton Fabric by Fluoropolymer/Fluoroposs Treatment

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-29

obtaining superhydrophobic and superolcophobic textured surfaces. Geometrical parameters based on these textures have been developed to model predicted...contact angles with liquids of varying surfaces tensions. One way of determining the robustness of the superhydrophobic state is to study the

Determining Hypocentral Parameters for Local Earthquakes in 1-D Using a Genetic Algorithm and Two-point ray tracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W.; Hahm, I.; Ahn, S. J.; Lim, D. H.

2005-12-01

This paper introduces a powerful method for determining hypocentral parameters for local earthquakes in 1-D using a genetic algorithm (GA) and two-point ray tracing. Using existing algorithms to determine hypocentral parameters is difficult, because these parameters can vary based on initial velocity models. We developed a new method to solve this problem by applying a GA to an existing algorithm, HYPO-71 (Lee and Larh, 1975). The original HYPO-71 algorithm was modified by applying two-point ray tracing and a weighting factor with respect to the takeoff angle at the source to reduce errors from the ray path and hypocenter depth. Artificial data, without error, were generated by computer using two-point ray tracing in a true model, in which velocity structure and hypocentral parameters were known. The accuracy of the calculated results was easily determined by comparing calculated and actual values. We examined the accuracy of this method for several cases by changing the true and modeled layer numbers and thicknesses. The computational results show that this method determines nearly exact hypocentral parameters without depending on initial velocity models. Furthermore, accurate and nearly unique hypocentral parameters were obtained, although the number of modeled layers and thicknesses differed from those in the true model. Therefore, this method can be a useful tool for determining hypocentral parameters in regions where reliable local velocity values are unknown. This method also provides the basic a priori information for 3-D studies. KEY -WORDS: hypocentral parameters, genetic algorithm (GA), two-point ray tracing

Rapid tsunami models and earthquake source parameters: Far-field and local applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, E.L.

2005-01-01

Rapid tsunami models have recently been developed to forecast far-field tsunami amplitudes from initial earthquake information (magnitude and hypocenter). Earthquake source parameters that directly affect tsunami generation as used in rapid tsunami models are examined, with particular attention to local versus far-field application of those models. First, validity of the assumption that the focal mechanism and type of faulting for tsunamigenic earthquakes is similar in a given region can be evaluated by measuring the seismic consistency of past events. Second, the assumption that slip occurs uniformly over an area of rupture will most often underestimate the amplitude and leading-wave steepness of the local tsunami. Third, sometimes large magnitude earthquakes will exhibit a high degree of spatial heterogeneity such that tsunami sources will be composed of distinct sub-events that can cause constructive and destructive interference in the wavefield away from the source. Using a stochastic source model, it is demonstrated that local tsunami amplitudes vary by as much as a factor of two or more, depending on the local bathymetry. If other earthquake source parameters such as focal depth or shear modulus are varied in addition to the slip distribution patterns, even greater uncertainty in local tsunami amplitude is expected for earthquakes of similar magnitude. Because of the short amount of time available to issue local warnings and because of the high degree of uncertainty associated with local, model-based forecasts as suggested by this study, direct wave height observations and a strong public education and preparedness program are critical for those regions near suspected tsunami sources.

Dark energy equation of state parameter and its evolution at low redshift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tripathi, Ashutosh; Sangwan, Archana; Jassal, H.K., E-mail: ashutosh_tripathi@fudan.edu.cn, E-mail: archanakumari@iisermohali.ac.in, E-mail: hkjassal@iisermohali.ac.in

In this paper, we constrain dark energy models using a compendium of observations at low redshifts. We consider the dark energy as a barotropic fluid, with the equation of state a constant as well the case where dark energy equation of state is a function of time. The observations considered here are Supernova Type Ia data, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation data and Hubble parameter measurements. We compare constraints obtained from these data and also do a combined analysis. The combined observational constraints put strong limits on variation of dark energy density with redshift. For varying dark energy models, the range ofmore » parameters preferred by the supernova type Ia data is in tension with the other low redshift distance measurements.« less

The predictive consequences of parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Doherty, J. E.

2013-12-01

In numerical groundwater modeling, parameterization is the process of selecting the aspects of a computer model that will be allowed to vary during history matching. This selection process is dependent on professional judgment and is, therefore, inherently subjective. Ideally, a robust parameterization should be commensurate with the spatial and temporal resolution of the model and should include all uncertain aspects of the model. Limited computing resources typically require reducing the number of adjustable parameters so that only a subset of the uncertain model aspects are treated as estimable parameters; the remaining aspects are treated as fixed parameters during history matching. We use linear subspace theory to develop expressions for the predictive error incurred by fixing parameters. The predictive error is comprised of two terms. The first term arises directly from the sensitivity of a prediction to fixed parameters. The second term arises from prediction-sensitive adjustable parameters that are forced to compensate for fixed parameters during history matching. The compensation is accompanied by inappropriate adjustment of otherwise uninformed, null-space parameter components. Unwarranted adjustment of null-space components away from prior maximum likelihood values may produce bias if a prediction is sensitive to those components. The potential for subjective parameterization choices to corrupt predictions is examined using a synthetic model. Several strategies are evaluated, including use of piecewise constant zones, use of pilot points with Tikhonov regularization and use of the Karhunen-Loeve transformation. The best choice of parameterization (as defined by minimum error variance) is strongly dependent on the types of predictions to be made by the model.

WE-FG-206-06: Dual-Input Tracer Kinetic Modeling and Its Analog Implementation for Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced (DCE-) MRI of Malignant Mesothelioma (MPM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, S; Rimner, A; Hayes, S

Purpose: To use dual-input tracer kinetic modeling of the lung for mapping spatial heterogeneity of various kinetic parameters in malignant MPM Methods: Six MPM patients received DCE-MRI as part of their radiation therapy simulation scan. 5 patients had the epitheloid subtype of MPM, while one was biphasic. A 3D fast-field echo sequence with TR/TE/Flip angle of 3.62ms/1.69ms/15° was used for DCE-MRI acquisition. The scan was collected for 5 minutes with a temporal resolution of 5-9 seconds depending on the spatial extent of the tumor. A principal component analysis-based groupwise deformable registration was used to co-register all the DCE-MRI series formore » motion compensation. All the images were analyzed using five different dual-input tracer kinetic models implemented in analog continuous-time formalism: the Tofts-Kety (TK), extended TK (ETK), two compartment exchange (2CX), adiabatic approximation to the tissue homogeneity (AATH), and distributed parameter (DP) models. The following parameters were computed for each model: total blood flow (BF), pulmonary flow fraction (γ), pulmonary blood flow (BF-pa), systemic blood flow (BF-a), blood volume (BV), mean transit time (MTT), permeability-surface area product (PS), fractional interstitial volume (vi), extraction fraction (E), volume transfer constant (Ktrans) and efflux rate constant (kep). Results: Although the majority of patients had epitheloid histologies, kinetic parameter values varied across different models. One patient showed a higher total BF value in all models among the epitheloid histologies, although the γ value was varying among these different models. In one tumor with a large area of necrosis, the TK and ETK models showed higher E, Ktrans, and kep values and lower interstitial volume as compared to AATH and DP and 2CX models. Kinetic parameters such as BF-pa, BF-a, PS, Ktrans values were higher in surviving group compared to non-surviving group across most models. Conclusion: Dual-input tracer kinetic modeling is feasible in determining micro-vascular characteristics of MPM. This project was supported from Cycle for Survival and MSK Imaging and radiation science (IMRAS) grants.« less

Mapping of Biophysical Parameters of Rice Agriculture System from Hyperspectral Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moharana, Shreedevi; Duta, Subashisa

2017-04-01

Chlorophyll, nitrogen and leaf water content are the most essential parameters for paddy crop growth. Ground hyperspectral observations were collected at canopy level during critical growth period of rice by using hand held Spectroradiometer. Chemical analysis was carried out to quantify the total chlorophyll, nitrogen and leaf water content. By exploiting the in-situ hyperspectral measurements, regression models were established between each of the crop growth parameters and the spectral indices specifically designed for chlorophyll, nitrogen and water stress. Narrow band vegetation index models were developed for mapping these parameters from Hyperion imagery in an agriculture system. It was inferred that the modified simple ratio (SR) and leaf nitrogen concentration (LNC) predictive index models, which followed a linear and nonlinear relationship respectively, produced satisfactory results in predicting rice nitrogen content from hyperspectral imagery. The presently developed model was compared with other models proposed by researchers. It was ascertained that, nitrogen content varied widely from 1-4 percentage and only 2-3 percentage for paddy crop using present modified index models and well-known predicted Tian et al. (2011) model respectively. The modified present LNC index model performed better than the established Tian et al. (2011) model as far as the estimated nitrogen content from Hyperion imagery was concerned. Moreover, within the observed chlorophyll range attained from the rice genotypes cultivated in the studied rice agriculture system, the index models (LNC, OASVI, Gitelson, mSR and MTCI) accomplished satisfactory results in the spatial distribution of rice chlorophyll content from Hyperion imagery. Spatial distribution of total chlorophyll content widely varied from 1.77-5.81 mg/g (LNC), 3.0-13 mg/g (OASVI) and 2.90-5.40 mg/g (MTCI). Following the similar guideline, it was found that normalized difference water index (NDWI) and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) predictive models demonstrated the spatial variability of leaf water content from 40 percentage to 90 percentage in the same rice agriculture system which has a good agreement with observed in-situ leaf water measurements. The spatial information of these parameters will be useful for crop nutrient management and yield forecasting, and will serve as inputs to various crop-forecasting models for developing a precision rice agriculture system. Key words: Rice agriculture system, nitrogen, chlorophyll, leaf water content, vegetation index

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in the CICE v5.1 Sea Ice Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego-Blanco, J. R.; Urban, N. M.

2015-12-01

Changes in the high latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with mid latitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. In this work we characterize parametric uncertainty in Los Alamos Sea Ice model (CICE) and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent and volume with respect to uncertainty in about 40 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one-at-a-time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 40-dimensional parameter space. This approach requires a very large number of model evaluations, which are expensive to run. A more computationally efficient approach is implemented by training and cross-validating a surrogate (emulator) of the sea ice model with model output from 400 model runs. The emulator is used to make predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume at several model configurations, which are then used to compute the Sobol sensitivity indices of the 40 parameters. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model output is most sensitive to snow parameters such as conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. The main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a non-parametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. It is recommended research to be prioritized towards more accurately determining these most influential parameters values by observational studies or by improving existing parameterizations in the sea ice model.

Modelling non-linear effects of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, Benjamin; Baldi, Marco; Pourtsidou, Alkistis

2018-04-01

We investigate the capabilities of perturbation theory in capturing non-linear effects of dark energy. We test constant and evolving w models, as well as models involving momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. Specifically, we compare perturbative predictions at 1-loop level against N-body results for four non-standard equations of state as well as varying degrees of momentum exchange between dark energy and dark matter. The interaction is modelled phenomenologically using a time dependent drag term in the Euler equation. We make comparisons at the level of the matter power spectrum and the redshift space monopole and quadrupole. The multipoles are modelled using the Taruya, Nishimichi and Saito (TNS) redshift space spectrum. We find perturbation theory does very well in capturing non-linear effects coming from dark sector interaction. We isolate and quantify the 1-loop contribution coming from the interaction and from the non-standard equation of state. We find the interaction parameter ξ amplifies scale dependent signatures in the range of scales considered. Non-standard equations of state also give scale dependent signatures within this same regime. In redshift space the match with N-body is improved at smaller scales by the addition of the TNS free parameter σv. To quantify the importance of modelling the interaction, we create mock data sets for varying values of ξ using perturbation theory. This data is given errors typical of Stage IV surveys. We then perform a likelihood analysis using the first two multipoles on these sets and a ξ=0 modelling, ignoring the interaction. We find the fiducial growth parameter f is generally recovered even for very large values of ξ both at z=0.5 and z=1. The ξ=0 modelling is most biased in its estimation of f for the phantom w=‑1.1 case.

A highly precise frequency-based method for estimating the tension of an inclined cable with unknown boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lin

2017-11-01

This paper develops a method for precisely determining the tension of an inclined cable with unknown boundary conditions. First, the nonlinear motion equation of an inclined cable is derived, and a numerical model of the motion of the cable is proposed using the finite difference method. The proposed numerical model includes the sag-extensibility, flexural stiffness, inclination angle and rotational stiffness at two ends of the cable. Second, the influence of the dynamic parameters of the cable on its frequencies is discussed in detail, and a method for precisely determining the tension of an inclined cable is proposed based on the derivatives of the eigenvalues of the matrices. Finally, a multiparameter identification method is developed that can simultaneously identify multiple parameters, including the rotational stiffness at two ends. This scheme is applicable to inclined cables with varying sag, varying flexural stiffness and unknown boundary conditions. Numerical examples indicate that the method provides good precision. Because the parameters of cables other than tension (e.g., the flexural stiffness and rotational stiffness at the ends) are not accurately known in practical engineering, the multiparameter identification method could further improve the accuracy of cable tension measurements.

Influence of different dose calculation algorithms on the estimate of NTCP for lung complications.

PubMed

Hedin, Emma; Bäck, Anna

2013-09-06

Due to limitations and uncertainties in dose calculation algorithms, different algorithms can predict different dose distributions and dose-volume histograms for the same treatment. This can be a problem when estimating the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for patient-specific dose distributions. Published NTCP model parameters are often derived for a different dose calculation algorithm than the one used to calculate the actual dose distribution. The use of algorithm-specific NTCP model parameters can prevent errors caused by differences in dose calculation algorithms. The objective of this work was to determine how to change the NTCP model parameters for lung complications derived for a simple correction-based pencil beam dose calculation algorithm, in order to make them valid for three other common dose calculation algorithms. NTCP was calculated with the relative seriality (RS) and Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) models. The four dose calculation algorithms used were the pencil beam (PB) and collapsed cone (CC) algorithms employed by Oncentra, and the pencil beam convolution (PBC) and anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) employed by Eclipse. Original model parameters for lung complications were taken from four published studies on different grades of pneumonitis, and new algorithm-specific NTCP model parameters were determined. The difference between original and new model parameters was presented in relation to the reported model parameter uncertainties. Three different types of treatments were considered in the study: tangential and locoregional breast cancer treatment and lung cancer treatment. Changing the algorithm without the derivation of new model parameters caused changes in the NTCP value of up to 10 percentage points for the cases studied. Furthermore, the error introduced could be of the same magnitude as the confidence intervals of the calculated NTCP values. The new NTCP model parameters were tabulated as the algorithm was varied from PB to PBC, AAA, or CC. Moving from the PB to the PBC algorithm did not require new model parameters; however, moving from PB to AAA or CC did require a change in the NTCP model parameters, with CC requiring the largest change. It was shown that the new model parameters for a given algorithm are different for the different treatment types.

Low Velocity Earth-Penetration Test and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Jones, Yvonne; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Kellas, Sotiris

2001-01-01

Modeling and simulation of structural impacts into soil continue to challenge analysts to develop accurate material models and detailed analytical simulations to predict the soil penetration event. This paper discusses finite element modeling of a series of penetrometer drop tests into soft clay. Parametric studies are performed with penetrometers of varying diameters, masses, and impact speeds to a maximum of 45 m/s. Parameters influencing the simulation such as the contact penalty factor and the material model representing the soil are also studied. An empirical relationship between key parameters is developed and is shown to correlate experimental and analytical results quite well. The results provide preliminary design guidelines for Earth impact that may be useful for future space exploration sample return missions.

Optimization of reaction parameters of radiation induced grafting of 1-vinylimidazole onto poly(ethylene-co-tetraflouroethene) using response surface method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasef, Mohamed Mahmoud; Aly, Amgad Ahmed; Saidi, Hamdani; Ahmad, Arshad

2011-11-01

Radiation induced grafting of 1-vinylimidazole (1-VIm) onto poly(ethylene-co-tetraflouroethene) (ETFE) was investigated. The grafting parameters such as absorbed dose, monomer concentration, grafting time and temperature were optimized using response surface method (RSM). The Box-Behnken module available in the design expert software was used to investigate the effect of reaction conditions (independent parameters) varied in four levels on the degree of grafting ( G%) (response parameter). The model yielded a polynomial equation that relates the linear, quadratic and interaction effects of the independent parameters to the response parameter. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to evaluate the results of the model and detect the significant values for the independent parameters. The optimum parameters to achieve a maximum G% were found to be monomer concentration of 55 vol%, absorbed dose of 100 kGy, time in the range of 14-20 h and a temperature of 61 °C. Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) were used to investigate the properties of the obtained films and provide evidence for grafting.

The Performance of ML, GLS, and WLS Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling under Conditions of Misspecification and Nonnormality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olsson, Ulf Henning; Foss, Tron; Troye, Sigurd V.; Howell, Roy D.

2000-01-01

Used simulation to demonstrate how the choice of estimation method affects indexes of fit and parameter bias for different sample sizes when nested models vary in terms of specification error and the data demonstrate different levels of kurtosis. Discusses results for maximum likelihood (ML), generalized least squares (GLS), and weighted least…

An application of modern control theory to jet propulsion systems. [considering onboard computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Merrill, W. C.

1975-01-01

The control of an airbreathing turbojet engine by an onboard digital computer is studied. The approach taken is to model the turbojet engine as a linear, multivariable system whose parameters vary with engine operating environment. From this model adaptive closed-loop or feedback control laws are designed and applied to the acceleration of the turbojet engine.

Scale effects on spatially varying relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality.

PubMed

Sun, Yanwei; Guo, Qinghai; Liu, Jian; Wang, Run

2014-08-01

Scientific interpretation of the relationships between urban landscape patterns and water quality is important for sustainable urban planning and watershed environmental protection. This study applied the ordinary least squares regression model and the geographically weighted regression model to examine the spatially varying relationships between 12 explanatory variables (including three topographical factors, four land use parameters, and five landscape metrics) and 15 water quality indicators in watersheds of Yundang Lake, Maluan Bay, and Xinglin Bay with varying levels of urbanization in Xiamen City, China. A local and global investigation was carried out at the watershed-level, with 50 and 200 m riparian buffer scales. This study found that topographical features and landscape metrics are the dominant factors of water quality, while land uses are too weak to be considered as a strong influential factor on water quality. Such statistical results may be related with the characteristics of land use compositions in our study area. Water quality variations in the 50 m buffer were dominated by topographical variables. The impact of landscape metrics on water quality gradually strengthen with expanding buffer zones. The strongest relationships are obtained in entire watersheds, rather than in 50 and 200 m buffer zones. Spatially varying relationships and effective buffer zones were verified in this study. Spatially varying relationships between explanatory variables and water quality parameters are more diversified and complex in less urbanized areas than in highly urbanized areas. This study hypothesizes that all these varying relationships may be attributed to the heterogeneity of landscape patterns in different urban regions. Adjustment of landscape patterns in an entire watershed should be the key measure to successfully improving urban lake water quality.

Geographic variation in survival and migratory tendency among North American Common Mergansers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearce, J.M.; Reed, J.A.; Flint, Paul L.

2005-01-01

Movement ecology and demographic parameters for the Common Merganser (Mergus merganser americanus) in North America are poorly known. We used band-recovery data from five locations across North America spanning the years 1938-1998 to examine migratory patterns and estimate survival rates. We examined competing time-invariant, age-graduated models with program MARK to study sources of variation in survival and reporting probability. We considered age, sex, geographic location, and the use of nasal saddles on hatching year birds at one location as possible sources of variation. Year-of-banding was included as a covariate in a post-hoc analysis. We found that migratory tendency, defined as the average distance between banding and recovery locations, varied geographically. Similarly, all models accounting for the majority of variation in recovery and survival probabilities included location of banding. Models that included age and sex received less support, but we lacked sufficient data to adequately assess these parameters. Model-averaged estimates of annual survival ranged from 0.21 in Michigan to 0.82 in Oklahoma. Heterogeneity in migration tendency and survival suggests that demographic patterns may vary across geographic scales, with implications for the population dynamics of this species.

Statistics of Optical Coherence Tomography Data From Human Retina

PubMed Central

de Juan, Joaquín; Ferrone, Claudia; Giannini, Daniela; Huang, David; Koch, Giorgio; Russo, Valentina; Tan, Ou; Bruni, Carlo

2010-01-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has recently become one of the primary methods for noninvasive probing of the human retina. The pseudoimage formed by OCT (the so-called B-scan) varies probabilistically across pixels due to complexities in the measurement technique. Hence, sensitive automatic procedures of diagnosis using OCT may exploit statistical analysis of the spatial distribution of reflectance. In this paper, we perform a statistical study of retinal OCT data. We find that the stretched exponential probability density function can model well the distribution of intensities in OCT pseudoimages. Moreover, we show a small, but significant correlation between neighbor pixels when measuring OCT intensities with pixels of about 5 µm. We then develop a simple joint probability model for the OCT data consistent with known retinal features. This model fits well the stretched exponential distribution of intensities and their spatial correlation. In normal retinas, fit parameters of this model are relatively constant along retinal layers, but varies across layers. However, in retinas with diabetic retinopathy, large spikes of parameter modulation interrupt the constancy within layers, exactly where pathologies are visible. We argue that these results give hope for improvement in statistical pathology-detection methods even when the disease is in its early stages. PMID:20304733

A comparative modeling study of a dual tracer experiment in a large lysimeter under atmospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stumpp, C.; Nützmann, G.; Maciejewski, S.; Maloszewski, P.

2009-09-01

SummaryIn this paper, five model approaches with different physical and mathematical concepts varying in their model complexity and requirements were applied to identify the transport processes in the unsaturated zone. The applicability of these model approaches were compared and evaluated investigating two tracer breakthrough curves (bromide, deuterium) in a cropped, free-draining lysimeter experiment under natural atmospheric boundary conditions. The data set consisted of time series of water balance, depth resolved water contents, pressure heads and resident concentrations measured during 800 days. The tracer transport parameters were determined using a simple stochastic (stream tube model), three lumped parameter (constant water content model, multi-flow dispersion model, variable flow dispersion model) and a transient model approach. All of them were able to fit the tracer breakthrough curves. The identified transport parameters of each model approach were compared. Despite the differing physical and mathematical concepts the resulting parameters (mean water contents, mean water flux, dispersivities) of the five model approaches were all in the same range. The results indicate that the flow processes are also describable assuming steady state conditions. Homogeneous matrix flow is dominant and a small pore volume with enhanced flow velocities near saturation was identified with variable saturation flow and transport approach. The multi-flow dispersion model also identified preferential flow and additionally suggested a third less mobile flow component. Due to high fitting accuracy and parameter similarity all model approaches indicated reliable results.

Hybrid Modeling of Cell Signaling and Transcriptional Reprogramming and Its Application in C. elegans Development.

PubMed

Fertig, Elana J; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Ochs, Michael F

2011-01-01

Modeling of signal driven transcriptional reprogramming is critical for understanding of organism development, human disease, and cell biology. Many current modeling techniques discount key features of the biological sub-systems when modeling multiscale, organism-level processes. We present a mechanistic hybrid model, GESSA, which integrates a novel pooled probabilistic Boolean network model of cell signaling and a stochastic simulation of transcription and translation responding to a diffusion model of extracellular signals. We apply the model to simulate the well studied cell fate decision process of the vulval precursor cells (VPCs) in C. elegans, using experimentally derived rate constants wherever possible and shared parameters to avoid overfitting. We demonstrate that GESSA recovers (1) the effects of varying scaffold protein concentration on signal strength, (2) amplification of signals in expression, (3) the relative external ligand concentration in a known geometry, and (4) feedback in biochemical networks. We demonstrate that setting model parameters based on wild-type and LIN-12 loss-of-function mutants in C. elegans leads to correct prediction of a wide variety of mutants including partial penetrance of phenotypes. Moreover, the model is relatively insensitive to parameters, retaining the wild-type phenotype for a wide range of cell signaling rate parameters.

Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

2011-12-01

Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling parameter for the aerosols. The estimation method is computationally fast and can be used with more complex models where climate sensitivity is diagnosed rather than prescribed. The parameter estimates can be used to create probabilistic climate projections using the UVic ESCM model in future studies.

Green roof rainfall-runoff modelling: is the comparison between conceptual and physically based approaches relevant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2017-04-01

Green roofs are commonly considered as efficient tools to mitigate urban runoff as they can store precipitation, and consequently provide retention and detention performances. Designed as a compromise between water holding capacity, weight and hydraulic conductivity, their substrate is usually an artificial media differentiating significantly from a traditional soil. In order to assess green roofs hydrological performances, many models have been developed. Classified into two categories (conceptual and physically based), they are usually applied to reproduce the discharge of a particular monitored green roof considered as homogeneous. Although the resulted simulations could be satisfactory, the question of robustness and consistency of the calibrated parameters is often not addressed. Here, a modeling framework has been developed to assess the efficiency and the robustness of both modelling approaches (conceptual and physically based) in reproducing green roof hydrological behaviour. SWMM and VS2DT models have been used for this purpose. This work also benefits from an experimental setup where several green roofs differentiated by their substrate thickness and vegetation cover are monitored. Based on the data collected for several rainfall events, it has been studied how the calibrated parameters are effectively linked to their physical properties and how they can vary from one green roof configuration to another. Although both models reproduce correctly the observed discharges in most of the cases, their calibrated parameters exhibit a high inconsistency. For a same green roof configuration, these parameters can vary significantly from one rainfall event to another, even if they are supposed to be linked to the green roof characteristics (roughness, residual moisture content for instance). They can also be different from one green roof configuration to another although the implemented substrate is the same. Finally, it appears very difficult to find any relationship between the calibrated parameters supposed to represent similar characteristics in both models (porosity, hydraulic conductivity). These results illustrate the difficulty to reproduce the hydrological behaviour of such an artificial media constituting green roof substrate. They justify the development of new methods able to take to into account the spatial heterogeneity of the substrate for instance.

Assessing the importance of rainfall uncertainty on hydrological models with different spatial and temporal scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Bauwens, Willy

2015-04-01

Precipitation is one of the key inputs for hydrological models. As long as the values of the hydrological model parameters are fixed, a variation of the rainfall input is expected to induce a change in the model output. Given the increased awareness of uncertainty on rainfall records, it becomes more important to understand the impact of this input - output dynamic. Yet, modellers often still have the intention to mimic the observed flow, whatever the deviation of the employed records from the actual rainfall might be, by recklessly adapting the model parameter values. But is it actually possible to vary the model parameter values in such a way that a certain (observed) model output can be generated based on inaccurate rainfall inputs? Thus, how important is the rainfall uncertainty for the model output with respect to the model parameter importance? To address this question, we apply the Sobol' sensitivity analysis method to assess and compare the importance of the rainfall uncertainty and the model parameters on the output of the hydrological model. In order to be able to treat the regular model parameters and input uncertainty in the same way, and to allow a comparison of their influence, a possible approach is to represent the rainfall uncertainty by a parameter. To tackle the latter issue, we apply so called rainfall multipliers on hydrological independent storm events, as a probabilistic parameter representation of the possible rainfall variation. As available rainfall records are very often point measurements at a discrete time step (hourly, daily, monthly,…), they contain uncertainty due to a latent lack of spatial and temporal variability. The influence of the latter variability can also be different for hydrological models with different spatial and temporal scale. Therefore, we perform the sensitivity analyses on a semi-distributed model (SWAT) and a lumped model (NAM). The assessment and comparison of the importance of the rainfall uncertainty and the model parameters is achieved by considering different scenarios for the included parameters and the state of the models.

Removal of ibuprofen, naproxen and carbamazepine in aqueous solution onto natural clay: equilibrium, kinetics, and thermodynamic study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazri, Hassen; Ghorbel-Abid, Ibtissem; Kalfat, Rafik; Trabelsi-Ayadi, Malika

2017-10-01

This study aimed to describe the adsorption of three pharmaceuticals compounds (ibuprofen, naproxen and carbamazepine) onto natural clay on the basis of equilibrium parameters such as a function of time, effect of pH, varying of the concentration and the temperature. Adsorption kinetic data were modeled using the Lagergren's first-order and the pseudo-second-order kinetic equations. The kinetic results of adsorption are described better using the pseudo-second order model. The isotherm results were tested in the Langmuir, Freundlich and Dubinin-Radushkevich models. The thermodynamic parameters obtained indicate that the adsorption of pharmaceuticals on the clay is a spontaneous and endothermic process.

Study on the Carbonation Behavior of Cement Mortar by Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Dong, Biqin; Qiu, Qiwen; Xiang, Jiaqi; Huang, Canjie; Xing, Feng; Han, Ningxu

2014-01-01

A new electrochemical model has been carefully established to explain the carbonation behavior of cement mortar, and the model has been validated by the experimental results. In fact, it is shown by this study that the electrochemical impedance behavior of mortars varies in the process of carbonation. With the cement/sand ratio reduced, the carbonation rate reveals more remarkable. The carbonation process can be quantitatively accessed by a parameter, which can be obtained by means of the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS)-based electrochemical model. It has been found that the parameter is a function of carbonation depth and of carbonation time. Thereby, prediction of carbonation depth can be achieved. PMID:28788452

Study on the Carbonation Behavior of Cement Mortar by Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Dong, Biqin; Qiu, Qiwen; Xiang, Jiaqi; Huang, Canjie; Xing, Feng; Han, Ningxu

2014-01-03

A new electrochemical model has been carefully established to explain the carbonation behavior of cement mortar, and the model has been validated by the experimental results. In fact, it is shown by this study that the electrochemical impedance behavior of mortars varies in the process of carbonation. With the cement/sand ratio reduced, the carbonation rate reveals more remarkable. The carbonation process can be quantitatively accessed by a parameter, which can be obtained by means of the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS)-based electrochemical model. It has been found that the parameter is a function of carbonation depth and of carbonation time. Thereby, prediction of carbonation depth can be achieved.

Dynamics of stochastic SEIS epidemic model with varying population size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jiamin; Wei, Fengying

2016-12-01

We introduce the stochasticity into a deterministic model which has state variables susceptible-exposed-infected with varying population size in this paper. The infected individuals could return into susceptible compartment after recovering. We show that the stochastic model possesses a unique global solution under building up a suitable Lyapunov function and using generalized Itô's formula. The densities of the exposed and infected tend to extinction when some conditions are being valid. Moreover, the conditions of persistence to a global solution are derived when the parameters are subject to some simple criteria. The stochastic model admits a stationary distribution around the endemic equilibrium, which means that the disease will prevail. To check the validity of the main results, numerical simulations are demonstrated as end of this contribution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jassal, Anjali Rao; Vadawale, Santosh V.; Mithun, N. P. S.

Low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are commonly observed during the hard states of black hole binaries. Several studies have established various observational/empirical correlations between spectral parameters and QPO properties, indicating a close link between the two. However, the exact mechanism of generation of QPOs is not yet well understood. In this paper, we present our attempts to comprehend the connection between the spectral components and the low-frequency QPO (LFQPO) observed in GRS 1915+105 using the data from NuSTAR. Detailed spectral modeling as well as the presence of the LFQPO and its energy dependence during this observation have been reported by Millermore » et al. and Zhang et al., respectively. We investigate the compatibility of the spectral model and the energy dependence of the QPO by simulating light curves in various energy bands for small variation of the spectral parameters. The basic concept here is to establish the connection, if any, between the QPO and the variation of either a spectral component or a specific parameter, which in turn can shed some light on the origin of the QPO. We begin with the best-fit spectral model of Miller et al. and simulate the light curve by varying the spectral parameters at frequencies close to the observed QPO frequency in order to generate the simulated QPO. Furthermore we simulate similar light curves in various energy bands in order to reproduce the observed energy dependence of the rms amplitude of the QPO. We find that the observed trend of increasing rms amplitude with energy can be reproduced qualitatively if the spectral index is assumed to be varying with the phases of the QPO. Variation of any other spectral parameter does not reproduce the observed energy dependence.« less

Quantitative assessment of key parameters in qualitative vulnerability methods applied in karst systems based on an integrated numerical modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doummar, Joanna; Kassem, Assaad

2017-04-01

In the framework of a three-year PEER (USAID/NSF) funded project, flow in a Karst system in Lebanon (Assal) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated and successfully calibrated using an integrated numerical model (MIKE-She 2016) based on high resolution input data and detailed catchment characterization. Point source infiltration and fast flow pathways were simulated by a bypass function and a high conductive lens respectively. The approach consisted of identifying all the factors used in qualitative vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK, PI, DRASTIC, GOD) applied in karst systems and to assess their influence on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, Unsaturated zone and Saturated zone) based on the integrated numerical model. These parameters are usually attributed different weights according to their estimated impact on Groundwater vulnerability. The aim of this work is to quantify the importance of each of these parameters and outline parameters that are not accounted for in standard methods, but that might play a role in the vulnerability of a system. The spatial distribution of the detailed evapotranspiration, infiltration, and recharge signals from atmosphere to unsaturated zone to saturated zone was compared and contrasted among different surface settings and under varying flow conditions (e.g., in varying slopes, land cover, precipitation intensity, and soil properties as well point source infiltration). Furthermore a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge and indirectly on vulnerability. The preliminary analysis yields a new methodology that accounts for most of the factors influencing vulnerability while refining the weights attributed to each one of them, based on a quantitative approach.

Charging of the Van Allen Probes: Theory and Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delzanno, G. L.; Meierbachtol, C.; Svyatskiy, D.; Denton, M.

2017-12-01

The electrical charging of spacecraft has been a known problem since the beginning of the space age. Its consequences can vary from moderate (single event upsets) to catastrophic (total loss of the spacecraft) depending on a variety of causes, some of which could be related to the surrounding plasma environment, including emission processes from the spacecraft surface. Because of its complexity and cost, this problem is typically studied using numerical simulations. However, inherent unknowns in both plasma parameters and spacecraft material properties can lead to inaccurate predictions of overall spacecraft charging levels. The goal of this work is to identify and study the driving causes and necessary parameters for particular spacecraft charging events on the Van Allen Probes (VAP) spacecraft. This is achieved by making use of plasma theory, numerical simulations, and on-board data. First, we present a simple theoretical spacecraft charging model, which assumes a spherical spacecraft geometry and is based upon the classical orbital-motion-limited approximation. Some input parameters to the model (such as the warm plasma distribution function) are taken directly from on-board VAP data, while other parameters are either varied parametrically to assess their impact on the spacecraft potential, or constrained through spacecraft charging data and statistical techniques. Second, a fully self-consistent numerical simulation is performed by supplying these parameters to CPIC, a particle-in-cell code specifically designed for studying plasma-material interactions. CPIC simulations remove some of the assumptions of the theoretical model and also capture the influence of the full geometry of the spacecraft. The CPIC numerical simulation results will be presented and compared with on-board VAP data. This work will set the foundation for our eventual goal of importing the full plasma environment from the LANL-developed SHIELDS framework into CPIC, in order to more accurately predict spacecraft charging.

Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Estimation for a Reactive Transport Model of Uranium Bioremediation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, P. D.; Yabusaki, S.; Curtis, G. P.; Ye, M.; Fang, Y.

2011-12-01

A three-dimensional, variably-saturated flow and multicomponent biogeochemical reactive transport model of uranium bioremediation was used to generate synthetic data . The 3-D model was based on a field experiment at the U.S. Dept. of Energy Rifle Integrated Field Research Challenge site that used acetate biostimulation of indigenous metal reducing bacteria to catalyze the conversion of aqueous uranium in the +6 oxidation state to immobile solid-associated uranium in the +4 oxidation state. A key assumption in past modeling studies at this site was that a comprehensive reaction network could be developed largely through one-dimensional modeling. Sensitivity analyses and parameter estimation were completed for a 1-D reactive transport model abstracted from the 3-D model to test this assumption, to identify parameters with the greatest potential to contribute to model predictive uncertainty, and to evaluate model structure and data limitations. Results showed that sensitivities of key biogeochemical concentrations varied in space and time, that model nonlinearities and/or parameter interactions have a significant impact on calculated sensitivities, and that the complexity of the model's representation of processes affecting Fe(II) in the system may make it difficult to correctly attribute observed Fe(II) behavior to modeled processes. Non-uniformity of the 3-D simulated groundwater flux and averaging of the 3-D synthetic data for use as calibration targets in the 1-D modeling resulted in systematic errors in the 1-D model parameter estimates and outputs. This occurred despite using the same reaction network for 1-D modeling as used in the data-generating 3-D model. Predictive uncertainty of the 1-D model appeared to be significantly underestimated by linear parameter uncertainty estimates.

Parameter estimation for a cohesive sediment transport model by assimilating satellite observations in the Hangzhou Bay: Temporal variations and spatial distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Daosheng; Zhang, Jicai; He, Xianqiang; Chu, Dongdong; Lv, Xianqing; Wang, Ya Ping; Yang, Yang; Fan, Daidu; Gao, Shu

2018-01-01

Model parameters in the suspended cohesive sediment transport models are critical for the accurate simulation of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). Difficulties in estimating the model parameters still prevent numerical modeling of the sediment transport from achieving a high level of predictability. Based on a three-dimensional cohesive sediment transport model and its adjoint model, the satellite remote sensing data of SSCs during both spring tide and neap tide, retrieved from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), are assimilated to synchronously estimate four spatially and temporally varying parameters in the Hangzhou Bay in China, including settling velocity, resuspension rate, inflow open boundary conditions and initial conditions. After data assimilation, the model performance is significantly improved. Through several sensitivity experiments, the spatial and temporal variation tendencies of the estimated model parameters are verified to be robust and not affected by model settings. The pattern for the variations of the estimated parameters is analyzed and summarized. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated settling velocity are negatively correlated with current speed, which can be explained using the combination of flocculation process and Stokes' law. The temporal variations and spatial distributions of the estimated resuspension rate are also negatively correlated with current speed, which are related to the grain size of the seabed sediments under different current velocities. Besides, the estimated inflow open boundary conditions reach the local maximum values near the low water slack conditions and the estimated initial conditions are negatively correlated with water depth, which is consistent with the general understanding. The relationships between the estimated parameters and the hydrodynamic fields can be suggestive for improving the parameterization in cohesive sediment transport models.

Forcing Regression through a Given Point Using Any Familiar Computational Routine.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-01

a linear model , Y =a + OX + e ( Model I) then adopt the principle of least squares; and use sample data to estimate the unknown parameters, a and 8...has an expected value of zero indicates that the "average" response is considered linear . If c varies widely, Model I, though conceptually correct, may...relationship is linear from the maximum observed x to x - a, then Model II should be used. To pro- ceed with the customary evaluation of Model I would be

TREXMO: A Translation Tool to Support the Use of Regulatory Occupational Exposure Models.

PubMed

Savic, Nenad; Racordon, Dimitri; Buchs, Didier; Gasic, Bojan; Vernez, David

2016-10-01

Occupational exposure models vary significantly in their complexity, purpose, and the level of expertise required from the user. Different parameters in the same model may lead to different exposure estimates for the same exposure situation. This paper presents a tool developed to deal with this concern-TREXMO or TRanslation of EXposure MOdels. TREXMO integrates six commonly used occupational exposure models, namely, ART v.1.5, STOFFENMANAGER(®) v.5.1, ECETOC TRA v.3, MEASE v.1.02.01, EMKG-EXPO-TOOL, and EASE v.2.0. By enabling a semi-automatic translation between the parameters of these six models, TREXMO facilitates their simultaneous use. For a given exposure situation, defined by a set of parameters in one of the models, TREXMO provides the user with the most appropriate parameters to use in the other exposure models. Results showed that, once an exposure situation and parameters were set in ART, TREXMO reduced the number of possible outcomes in the other models by 1-4 orders of magnitude. The tool should manage to reduce the uncertain entry or selection of parameters in the six models, improve between-user reliability, and reduce the time required for running several models for a given exposure situation. In addition to these advantages, registrants of chemicals and authorities should benefit from more reliable exposure estimates for the risk characterization of dangerous chemicals under Regulation, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of CHemicals (REACH). © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Agreement Between Institutional Measurements and Treatment Planning System Calculations for Basic Dosimetric Parameters as Measured by the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core-Houston

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerns, James R.; Followill, David S.; Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core-Houston, The University of Texas Health Science Center-Houston, Houston, Texas

Purpose: To compare radiation machine measurement data collected by the Imaging and Radiation Oncology Core at Houston (IROC-H) with institutional treatment planning system (TPS) values, to identify parameters with large differences in agreement; the findings will help institutions focus their efforts to improve the accuracy of their TPS models. Methods and Materials: Between 2000 and 2014, IROC-H visited more than 250 institutions and conducted independent measurements of machine dosimetric data points, including percentage depth dose, output factors, off-axis factors, multileaf collimator small fields, and wedge data. We compared these data with the institutional TPS values for the same points bymore » energy, class, and parameter to identify differences and similarities using criteria involving both the medians and standard deviations for Varian linear accelerators. Distributions of differences between machine measurements and institutional TPS values were generated for basic dosimetric parameters. Results: On average, intensity modulated radiation therapy–style and stereotactic body radiation therapy–style output factors and upper physical wedge output factors were the most problematic. Percentage depth dose, jaw output factors, and enhanced dynamic wedge output factors agreed best between the IROC-H measurements and the TPS values. Although small differences were shown between 2 common TPS systems, neither was superior to the other. Parameter agreement was constant over time from 2000 to 2014. Conclusions: Differences in basic dosimetric parameters between machine measurements and TPS values vary widely depending on the parameter, although agreement does not seem to vary by TPS and has not changed over time. Intensity modulated radiation therapy–style output factors, stereotactic body radiation therapy–style output factors, and upper physical wedge output factors had the largest disagreement and should be carefully modeled to ensure accuracy.« less

Using Perturbed Physics Ensembles and Machine Learning to Select Parameters for Reducing Regional Biases in a Global Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Hawkins, L.; Mote, P.; McNeall, D. J.; Sarah, S.; Wallom, D.; Betts, R. A.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the potential to reduce known summer hot/dry biases over Pacific Northwest in the UK Met Office's atmospheric model (HadAM3P) by simultaneously varying multiple model parameters. The bias-reduction process is done through a series of steps: 1) Generation of perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) through the volunteer computing network weather@home; 2) Using machine learning to train "cheap" and fast statistical emulators of climate model, to rule out regions of parameter spaces that lead to model variants that do not satisfy observational constraints, where the observational constraints (e.g., top-of-atmosphere energy flux, magnitude of annual temperature cycle, summer/winter temperature and precipitation) are introduced sequentially; 3) Designing a new PPE by "pre-filtering" using the emulator results. Steps 1) through 3) are repeated until results are considered to be satisfactory (3 times in our case). The process includes a sensitivity analysis to find dominant parameters for various model output metrics, which reduces the number of parameters to be perturbed with each new PPE. Relative to observational uncertainty, we achieve regional improvements without introducing large biases in other parts of the globe. Our results illustrate the potential of using machine learning to train cheap and fast statistical emulators of climate model, in combination with PPEs in systematic model improvement.

The Threshold Bias Model: A Mathematical Model for the Nomothetic Approach of Suicide

PubMed Central

Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra

2011-01-01

Background Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. Conclusions/Significance The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health. PMID:21909431

The threshold bias model: a mathematical model for the nomothetic approach of suicide.

PubMed

Folly, Walter Sydney Dutra

2011-01-01

Comparative and predictive analyses of suicide data from different countries are difficult to perform due to varying approaches and the lack of comparative parameters. A simple model (the Threshold Bias Model) was tested for comparative and predictive analyses of suicide rates by age. The model comprises of a six parameter distribution that was applied to the USA suicide rates by age for the years 2001 and 2002. Posteriorly, linear extrapolations are performed of the parameter values previously obtained for these years in order to estimate the values corresponding to the year 2003. The calculated distributions agreed reasonably well with the aggregate data. The model was also used to determine the age above which suicide rates become statistically observable in USA, Brazil and Sri Lanka. The Threshold Bias Model has considerable potential applications in demographic studies of suicide. Moreover, since the model can be used to predict the evolution of suicide rates based on information extracted from past data, it will be of great interest to suicidologists and other researchers in the field of mental health.

A Flight Dynamics Model for a Small Glider in Ambient Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beeler, Scott C.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Cox, David E.

2003-01-01

In this paper we describe the equations of motion developed for a point-mass zero-thrust (gliding) aircraft model operating in an environment of spatially varying atmospheric winds. The wind effects are included as an integral part of the flight dynamics equations, and the model is controlled through the three aerodynamic control angles. Formulas for the aerodynamic coefficients for this model are constructed to include the effects of several different aspects contributing to the aerodynamic performance of the vehicle. Characteristic parameter values of the model are compared with those found in a different set of small glider simulations. We execute a set of example problems which solve the glider dynamics equations to find the aircraft trajectory given specified control inputs. The ambient wind conditions and glider characteristics are varied to compare the simulation results under these different circumstances.

A Flight Dynamics Model for a Small Glider in Ambient Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beeler, Scott C.; Moerder, Daniel D.; Cox, David E.

2003-01-01

In this paper we describe the equations of motion developed for a point-mass zero-thrust (gliding) aircraft model operating in an environment of spatially varying atmospheric winds. The wind effects are included as an integral part of the flight dynamics equations, and the model is controlled through the three aerodynamic control angles. Formulas for the aerodynamic coefficients for this model are constructed to include the effects of several different aspects contributing to the aerodynamic performance of the vehicle. Characteristic parameter values of the model are compared with those found in a different set of small glider simulations. We execute a set of example problems which solve the glider dynamics equations to find aircraft trajectory given specified control inputs. The ambient wind conditions and glider characteristics are varied to compare the simulation results under these different circumstances.

Use of Rare Earth Elements in investigations of aeolian processes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The representation of the dust cycle in atmospheric circulation models hinges on an accurate parameterization of the vertical dust flux at emission. However, existing parameterizations of the vertical dust flux vary substantially in their scaling with wind friction velocity, require input parameters...

Application of Hamilton's Law of Varying Action

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, C. D.

1973-01-01

The application of Hamilton's Law to the direct solution of nonstationary as well as stationary problems in mechanics of solids is discussed. Solutions are demonstrated for conservative and monconservative, stationary and/or nonstationary particle motion. Mathematical models are developed to establish the relationships of the parameters.

Process-Structure Linkages Using a Data Science Approach: Application to Simulated Additive Manufacturing Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Popova, Evdokia; Rodgers, Theron M.; Gong, Xinyi

A novel data science workflow is developed and demonstrated to extract process-structure linkages (i.e., reduced-order model) for microstructure evolution problems when the final microstructure depends on (simulation or experimental) processing parameters. Our workflow consists of four main steps: data pre-processing, microstructure quantification, dimensionality reduction, and extraction/validation of process-structure linkages. These methods that can be employed within each step vary based on the type and amount of available data. In this paper, this data-driven workflow is applied to a set of synthetic additive manufacturing microstructures obtained using the Potts-kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach. Additive manufacturing techniques inherently produce complex microstructures thatmore » can vary significantly with processing conditions. Using the developed workflow, a low-dimensional data-driven model was established to correlate process parameters with the predicted final microstructure. In addition, the modular workflows developed and presented in this work facilitate easy dissemination and curation by the broader community.« less

Markets, Herding and Response to External Information.

PubMed

Carro, Adrián; Toral, Raúl; San Miguel, Maxi

2015-01-01

We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a time-varying advertising, public perception or rumor, in favor or against one of two possible trading behaviors, thus breaking the symmetry of the system and acting as a continuously varying exogenous shock. As an illustration, we use a well-known German Indicator of Economic Sentiment as information input and compare our results with Germany's leading stock market index, the DAX, in order to calibrate some of the model parameters. We study the conditions for the ensemble of agents to more accurately follow the information input signal. The response of the system to the external information is maximal for an intermediate range of values of a market parameter, suggesting the existence of three different market regimes: amplification, precise assimilation and undervaluation of incoming information.

Control systems using modal domain optical fiber sensors for smart structure applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lindner, Douglas K.; Reichard, Karl M.

1991-01-01

Recently, a new class of sensors has emerged for structural control which respond to environmental changes over a significant gauge length; these sensors are called distributed-effect sensors. These sensors can be fabricated with spatially varying sensitivity to the distributed measurand, and can be configured to measure a variety of structural parameters which can not be measured directly using point sensors. Examples of distributed-effect sensors include piezoelectric film, holographic sensors, and modal domain optical fiber sensors. Optical fiber sensors are particularly attractive for smart structure applications because they are flexible, have low mass, and can easily be embedded directly into materials. In this paper we describe the implementation of weighted modal domain optical fiber sensors. The mathematical model of the modal domain optical fiber sensor model is described and used to derive an expression for the sensor sensitivity. The effects of parameter variations on the sensor sensitivity are demonstrated to illustrate methods of spatially varying the sensor sensitivity.

Anechoic wind tunnel study of turbulence effects on wind turbine broadband noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loyd, B.; Harris, W. L.

1995-01-01

This paper describes recent results obtained at MIT on the experimental and theoretical modelling of aerodynamic broadband noise generated by a downwind rotor horizontal axis wind turbine. The aerodynamic broadband noise generated by the wind turbine rotor is attributed to the interaction of ingested turbulence with the rotor blades. The turbulence was generated in the MIT anechoic wind tunnel facility with the aid of biplanar grids of various sizes. The spectra and the intensity of the aerodynamic broadband noise have been studied as a function of parameters which characterize the turbulence and of wind turbine performance parameters. Specifically, the longitudinal integral scale of turbulence, the size scale of turbulence, the number of turbine blades, and free stream velocity were varied. Simultaneous measurements of acoustic and turbulence signals were made. The sound pressure level was found to vary directly with the integral scale of the ingested turbulence but not with its intensity level. A theoretical model based on unsteady aerodynamics is proposed.

Process-Structure Linkages Using a Data Science Approach: Application to Simulated Additive Manufacturing Data

DOE PAGES

Popova, Evdokia; Rodgers, Theron M.; Gong, Xinyi; ...

2017-03-13

A novel data science workflow is developed and demonstrated to extract process-structure linkages (i.e., reduced-order model) for microstructure evolution problems when the final microstructure depends on (simulation or experimental) processing parameters. Our workflow consists of four main steps: data pre-processing, microstructure quantification, dimensionality reduction, and extraction/validation of process-structure linkages. These methods that can be employed within each step vary based on the type and amount of available data. In this paper, this data-driven workflow is applied to a set of synthetic additive manufacturing microstructures obtained using the Potts-kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach. Additive manufacturing techniques inherently produce complex microstructures thatmore » can vary significantly with processing conditions. Using the developed workflow, a low-dimensional data-driven model was established to correlate process parameters with the predicted final microstructure. In addition, the modular workflows developed and presented in this work facilitate easy dissemination and curation by the broader community.« less

Dependence of intramyocardial pressure and coronary flow on ventricular loading and contractility: a model study.

PubMed

Bovendeerd, Peter H M; Borsje, Petra; Arts, Theo; van De Vosse, Frans N

2006-12-01

The phasic coronary arterial inflow during the normal cardiac cycle has been explained with simple (waterfall, intramyocardial pump) models, emphasizing the role of ventricular pressure. To explain changes in isovolumic and low afterload beats, these models were extended with the effect of three-dimensional wall stress, nonlinear characteristics of the coronary bed, and extravascular fluid exchange. With the associated increase in the number of model parameters, a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis has become difficult. Therefore we investigated the primary relations between ventricular pressure and volume, wall stress, intramyocardial pressure and coronary blood flow, with a mathematical model with a limited number of parameters. The model replicates several experimental observations: the phasic character of coronary inflow is virtually independent of maximum ventricular pressure, the amplitude of the coronary flow signal varies about proportionally with cardiac contractility, and intramyocardial pressure in the ventricular wall may exceed ventricular pressure. A parameter sensitivity analysis shows that the normalized amplitude of coronary inflow is mainly determined by contractility, reflected in ventricular pressure and, at low ventricular volumes, radial wall stress. Normalized flow amplitude is less sensitive to myocardial coronary compliance and resistance, and to the relation between active fiber stress, time, and sarcomere shortening velocity.

Launch Vehicle Propulsion Design with Multiple Selection Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shelton, Joey D.; Frederick, Robert A.; Wilhite, Alan W.

2005-01-01

The approach and techniques described herein define an optimization and evaluation approach for a liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen single-stage-to-orbit system. The method uses Monte Carlo simulations, genetic algorithm solvers, a propulsion thermo-chemical code, power series regression curves for historical data, and statistical models in order to optimize a vehicle system. The system, including parameters for engine chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, was modeled and optimized to determine the best design for seven separate design weight and cost cases by varying design and technology parameters. Significant model results show that a 53% increase in Design, Development, Test and Evaluation cost results in a 67% reduction in Gross Liftoff Weight. Other key findings show the sensitivity of propulsion parameters, technology factors, and cost factors and how these parameters differ when cost and weight are optimized separately. Each of the three key propulsion parameters; chamber pressure, area ratio, and oxidizer/fuel ratio, are optimized in the seven design cases and results are plotted to show impacts to engine mass and overall vehicle mass.

A model-averaging method for assessing groundwater conceptual model uncertainty.

PubMed

Ye, Ming; Pohlmann, Karl F; Chapman, Jenny B; Pohll, Greg M; Reeves, Donald M

2010-01-01

This study evaluates alternative groundwater models with different recharge and geologic components at the northern Yucca Flat area of the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS), USA. Recharge over the DVRFS has been estimated using five methods, and five geological interpretations are available at the northern Yucca Flat area. Combining the recharge and geological components together with additional modeling components that represent other hydrogeological conditions yields a total of 25 groundwater flow models. As all the models are plausible given available data and information, evaluating model uncertainty becomes inevitable. On the other hand, hydraulic parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity) are uncertain in each model, giving rise to parametric uncertainty. Propagation of the uncertainty in the models and model parameters through groundwater modeling causes predictive uncertainty in model predictions (e.g., hydraulic head and flow). Parametric uncertainty within each model is assessed using Monte Carlo simulation, and model uncertainty is evaluated using the model averaging method. Two model-averaging techniques (on the basis of information criteria and GLUE) are discussed. This study shows that contribution of model uncertainty to predictive uncertainty is significantly larger than that of parametric uncertainty. For the recharge and geological components, uncertainty in the geological interpretations has more significant effect on model predictions than uncertainty in the recharge estimates. In addition, weighted residuals vary more for the different geological models than for different recharge models. Most of the calibrated observations are not important for discriminating between the alternative models, because their weighted residuals vary only slightly from one model to another.

Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

2013-06-01

Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

Analysis of factors that influence rates of carbon monoxide uptake, distribution, and washout from blood and extravascular tissues using a multicompartment model.

PubMed

Bruce, Margaret C; Bruce, Eugene N

2006-04-01

To better understand factors that influence carbon monoxide (CO) washout rates, we utilized a multicompartment mathematical model to predict rates of CO uptake, distribution in vascular and extravascular (muscle vs. other soft tissue) compartments, and washout over a range of exposure and washout conditions with varied subject-specific parameters. We fitted this model to experimental data from 15 human subjects, for whom subject-specific parameters were known, multiple washout carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels were available, and CO exposure conditions were identical, to investigate the contributions of exposure conditions and individual variability to CO washout from blood. We found that CO washout from venous blood was biphasic and that postexposure times at which COHb samples were obtained significantly influenced the calculated CO half times (P < 0.0001). The first, more rapid, phase of CO washout from the blood reflected the loss of CO to the expired air and to a slow uptake by the muscle compartment, whereas the second, slower washout phase was attributable to CO flow from the muscle compartment back to the blood and removal from blood via the expired air. When the model was used to predict the effects of varying exposure conditions for these subjects, the CO exposure duration, concentration, peak COHb levels, and subject-specific parameters each influenced washout half times. Blood volume divided by ventilation correlated better with half-time predictions than did cardiac output, muscle mass, or ventilation, but it explained only approximately 50% of half-time variability. Thus exposure conditions, COHb sampling times, and individual parameters should be considered when estimating CO washout rates for poisoning victims.

Simulating the x-ray image contrast to setup techniques with desired flaw detectability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshti, Ajay M.

2015-04-01

The paper provides simulation data of previous work by the author in developing a model for estimating detectability of crack-like flaws in radiography. The methodology is developed to help in implementation of NASA Special x-ray radiography qualification, but is generically applicable to radiography. The paper describes a method for characterizing the detector resolution. Applicability of ASTM E 2737 resolution requirements to the model are also discussed. The paper describes a model for simulating the detector resolution. A computer calculator application, discussed here, also performs predicted contrast and signal-to-noise ratio calculations. Results of various simulation runs in calculating x-ray flaw size parameter and image contrast for varying input parameters such as crack depth, crack width, part thickness, x-ray angle, part-to-detector distance, part-to-source distance, source sizes, and detector sensitivity and resolution are given as 3D surfaces. These results demonstrate effect of the input parameters on the flaw size parameter and the simulated image contrast of the crack. These simulations demonstrate utility of the flaw size parameter model in setting up x-ray techniques that provide desired flaw detectability in radiography. The method is applicable to film radiography, computed radiography, and digital radiography.

Recharge characteristics of an unconfined aquifer from the rainfall-water table relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viswanathan, M. N.

1984-02-01

The determination of recharge levels of unconfined aquifers, recharged entirely by rainfall, is done by developing a model for the aquifer that estimates the water-table levels from the history of rainfall observations and past water-table levels. In the present analysis, the model parameters that influence the recharge were not only assumed to be time dependent but also to have varying dependence rates for various parameters. Such a model is solved by the use of a recursive least-squares method. The variable-rate parameter variation is incorporated using a random walk model. From the field tests conducted at Tomago Sandbeds, Newcastle, Australia, it was observed that the assumption of variable rates of time dependency of recharge parameters produced better estimates of water-table levels compared to that with constant-recharge parameters. It was observed that considerable recharge due to rainfall occurred on the very same day of rainfall. The increase in water-table level was insignificant for subsequent days of rainfall. The level of recharge very much depends upon the intensity and history of rainfall. Isolated rainfalls, even of the order of 25 mm day -1, had no significant effect on the water-table levels.

Spirals in a reaction-diffusion system: Dependence of wave dynamics on excitability.

PubMed

Mahanta, Dhriti; Das, Nirmali Prabha; Dutta, Sumana

2018-02-01

A detailed study of the effects of excitability of the Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction on spiral wave properties has been carried out. Using the Oregonator model, we explore the various regimes of wave activity, from sustained oscillations to wave damping, as the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, that is achieved by varying the excitability parameter, ε. We also discover a short range of parameter values where random oscillations are observed. With an increase in the value of ε, the frequency of the wave decreases exponentially, as the dimension of the spiral core expands. These numerical results are confirmed by carrying out experiments in thin layers of the BZ system, where the excitability is changed by varying the concentrations of the reactant species. Effect of reactant concentrations on wave properties like time period and wavelength are also explored in detail. Drifting and meandering spirals are found in the parameter space under investigation, with the excitability affecting the tip trajectory in a way predicted by the numerical studies. This study acts as a quantitative evidence of the relationship between the excitability parameter, ε, and the substrate concentrations.

Spirals in a reaction-diffusion system: Dependence of wave dynamics on excitability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanta, Dhriti; Das, Nirmali Prabha; Dutta, Sumana

2018-02-01

A detailed study of the effects of excitability of the Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction on spiral wave properties has been carried out. Using the Oregonator model, we explore the various regimes of wave activity, from sustained oscillations to wave damping, as the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation, that is achieved by varying the excitability parameter, ɛ . We also discover a short range of parameter values where random oscillations are observed. With an increase in the value of ɛ , the frequency of the wave decreases exponentially, as the dimension of the spiral core expands. These numerical results are confirmed by carrying out experiments in thin layers of the BZ system, where the excitability is changed by varying the concentrations of the reactant species. Effect of reactant concentrations on wave properties like time period and wavelength are also explored in detail. Drifting and meandering spirals are found in the parameter space under investigation, with the excitability affecting the tip trajectory in a way predicted by the numerical studies. This study acts as a quantitative evidence of the relationship between the excitability parameter, ɛ , and the substrate concentrations.

Influences of external vs. core-shell mixing on aerosol optical properties at various relative humidities.

PubMed

Ramachandran, S; Srivastava, Rohit

2013-05-01

Aerosol optical properties of external and core-shell mixtures of aerosol species present in the atmosphere are calculated in this study for different relative humidities. Core-shell Mie calculations are performed using the values of radii, refractive indices and densities of aerosol species that act as core and shell, and the core-shell radius ratio. The single scattering albedo (SSA) is higher when the absorbing species (black carbon, BC) is the core, while for a sulfate core SSA does not vary significantly as the BC in the shell dominates the absorption. Absorption gets enhanced in core-shell mixing of absorbing and scattering aerosols when compared to their external mixture. Thus, SSA is significantly lower for a core-shell mixture than their external mixture. SSA is more sensitive to core-shell ratio than mode radius when BC is the core. The extinction coefficient, SSA and asymmetry parameter are higher for external mixing when compared to BC (core)-water soluble aerosol (shell), and water soluble aerosol (core)-BC (shell) mixtures in the relative humidity range of 0 to 90%. Spectral SSA exhibits the behaviour of the species which acts as a shell in core-shell mixing. The asymmetry parameter for an external mixture of water soluble aerosol and BC is higher than BC (core)-water soluble aerosol (shell) mixing and increases as function of relative humidity. The asymmetry parameter for the water soluble aerosol (core)-BC (shell) is independent of relative humidity as BC is hydrophobic. The asymmetry parameter of the core-shell mixture decreases when BC aerosols are involved in mixing, as the asymmetry parameter of BC is lower. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) of core-shell mixtures increases at a higher rate when the relative humidity exceeds 70% in continental clean and urban aerosol models, whereas AOD remains the same when the relative humidity exceeds 50% in maritime aerosol models. The SSA for continental aerosols varies for core-shell mixing of water soluble aerosol (core)-shell (BC) when compared to their external mixture, while the SSA for maritime aerosols does not vary significantly for different mixing scenarios because of the dominance of sea salt aerosols. Thus, these results confirm that aerosol mixing can modify the physical and optical characteristics of aerosols, which vary as a function of relative humidity. These calculations will be useful in parameterising the effect of core-shell vs. external mixing of aerosols in global climate models, and in the evaluation of aerosol radiative effects.

A novel multiple batch extraction test to assess contaminant mobilization from porous waste materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iden, S. C.; Durner, W.; Delay, M.; Frimmel, F. H.

2009-04-01

Contaminated porous materials, like soils, dredged sediments or waste materials must be tested before they can be used as filling materials in order to minimize the risk of groundwater pollution. We applied a multiple batch extraction test at varying liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratios to a demolition waste material and a municipal waste incineration product and investigated the release of chloride, sulphate, sodium, copper, chromium and dissolved organic carbon from both waste materials. The liquid phase test concentrations were used to estimate parameters of a relatively simple mass balance model accounting for equilibrium partitioning. The model parameters were estimated within a Bayesian framework by applying an efficient MCMC sampler and the uncertainties of the model parameters and model predictions were quantified. We tested isotherms of the linear, Freundlich and Langmuir type and selected the optimal isotherm model by use of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). Both the excellent fit to the experimental data and a comparison between the model-predicted and independently measured concentrations at the L/S ratios of 0.25 and 0.5 L/kg demonstrate the applicability of the model for almost all studied substances and both waste materials. We conclude that batch extraction tests at varying L/S ratios provide, at moderate experimental cost, a powerful complement to established test designs like column leaching or single batch extraction tests. The method constitutes an important tool in risk assessments, because concentrations at soil water contents representative for the field situation can be predicted from easier-to-obtain test concentrations at larger L/S ratios. This helps to circumvent the experimental difficulties of the soil saturation extract and eliminates the need to apply statistical approaches to predict such representative concentrations which have been shown to suffer dramatically from poor correlations.

Calculations of High-Temperature Jet Flow Using Hybrid Reynolds-Average Navier-Stokes Formulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Elmiligui, Alaa; Giriamaji, Sharath S.

2008-01-01

Two multiscale-type turbulence models are implemented in the PAB3D solver. The models are based on modifying the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes equations. The first scheme is a hybrid Reynolds-averaged- Navier Stokes/large-eddy-simulation model using the two-equation k(epsilon) model with a Reynolds-averaged-Navier Stokes/large-eddy-simulation transition function dependent on grid spacing and the computed turbulence length scale. The second scheme is a modified version of the partially averaged Navier Stokes model in which the unresolved kinetic energy parameter f(sub k) is allowed to vary as a function of grid spacing and the turbulence length scale. This parameter is estimated based on a novel two-stage procedure to efficiently estimate the level of scale resolution possible for a given flow on a given grid for partially averaged Navier Stokes. It has been found that the prescribed scale resolution can play a major role in obtaining accurate flow solutions. The parameter f(sub k) varies between zero and one and is equal to one in the viscous sublayer and when the Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes turbulent viscosity becomes smaller than the large-eddy-simulation viscosity. The formulation, usage methodology, and validation examples are presented to demonstrate the enhancement of PAB3D's time-accurate turbulence modeling capabilities. The accurate simulations of flow and turbulent quantities will provide a valuable tool for accurate jet noise predictions. Solutions from these models are compared with Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes results and experimental data for high-temperature jet flows. The current results show promise for the capability of hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes and large eddy simulation and partially averaged Navier Stokes in simulating such flow phenomena.

Spatial variability of chlorophyll and nitrogen content of rice from hyperspectral imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moharana, Shreedevi; Dutta, Subashisa

2016-12-01

Chlorophyll and nitrogen are the most essential parameters for paddy crop growth. Spectroradiometric measurements were collected at canopy level during critical growth period of rice. Chemical analysis was performed to quantify the total leaf content. By exploiting the ground based measurements, regression models were established for chlorophyll and nitrogen aimed indices with their corresponding crop growth variables. Vegetation index models were developed for mapping these parameters from Hyperion imagery in an agriculture system. It was inferred that the present Simple Ratio (SR) and Leaf Nitrogen Concentration (LNC) indices, which followed a linear and nonlinear relationship respectively, were completely different from published Tian et al. (2011). The nitrogen content varied widely from 1 to 4% and only 2 to 3% for paddy crop using present modified index models and Tian et al. (2011) respectively. The modified LNC index model performed better than the established Tian et al. (2011) model as far as estimated nitrogen content from Hyperion imagery was concerned. Furthermore, within the observed chlorophyll range obtained from the studied rice varieties grown in the rice agriculture system, the index models (LNC, OASVI, Gitelson, mSR and MTCI) performed well in the spatial distribution of rice chlorophyll content from Hyperion imagery. Spatial distribution of total chlorophyll content varied widely from 1.77 to 5.81 mg/g (LNC), 3.0 to 13 mg/g (OASVI), 0.5 to 10.43 mg/g (Gitelson), 2.18 to 10.61 mg/g (mSR) and 2.90 to 5.40 mg/g (MTCI). The spatial information of these parameters will help in proper nutrient management, yield forecasting, and will serve as inputs for crop growth and forecasting models for a precision rice agriculture system.

Are We Listening to Music or Noise? Use of the Lyapunov Exponent for Comprehensive Assessment of Heart Rate Complexity During Hemorrhage in Sedated Conscious Miniature Swine

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

physiologic mechanisms underlying experimental observations: a practical example☆ Sven Zenker, Andreas Hoeft Department of Anaesthesiology and...to describe experi - mental data (goodness of fit) and its complexity (number of parameters). Their use in macroscopic physiologic investigations...BSP, and BRS could either be identical or vary across interventions, resulting in models with 4 to 12 parameters. After digitizing the experimental data

Modeling Coronal Mass Ejections with EUHFORIA: A Parameter Study of the Gibson-Low Flux Rope Model using Multi-Viewpoint Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbeke, C.; Asvestari, E.; Scolini, C.; Pomoell, J.; Poedts, S.; Kilpua, E.

2017-12-01

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are one of the big influencers on the coronal and interplanetary dynamics. Understanding their origin and evolution from the Sun to the Earth is crucial in order to determine the impact on our Earth and society. One of the key parameters that determine the geo-effectiveness of the coronal mass ejection is its internal magnetic configuration. We present a detailed parameter study of the Gibson-Low flux rope model. We focus on changes in the input parameters and how these changes affect the characteristics of the CME at Earth. Recently, the Gibson-Low flux rope model has been implemented into the inner heliosphere model EUHFORIA, a magnetohydrodynamics forecasting model of large-scale dynamics from 0.1 AU up to 2 AU. Coronagraph observations can be used to constrain the kinematics and morphology of the flux rope. One of the key parameters, the magnetic field, is difficult to determine directly from observations. In this work, we approach the problem by conducting a parameter study in which flux ropes with varying magnetic configurations are simulated. We then use the obtained dataset to look for signatures in imaging observations and in-situ observations in order to find an empirical way of constraining the parameters related to the magnetic field of the flux rope. In particular, we focus on events observed by at least two spacecraft (STEREO + L1) in order to discuss the merits of using observations from multiple viewpoints in constraining the parameters.

Identification of damage in composite structures using Gaussian mixture model-processed Lamb waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Qiang; Ma, Shuxian; Yue, Dong

2018-04-01

Composite materials have comprehensively better properties than traditional materials, and therefore have been more and more widely used, especially because of its higher strength-weight ratio. However, the damage of composite structures is usually varied and complicated. In order to ensure the security of these structures, it is necessary to monitor and distinguish the structural damage in a timely manner. Lamb wave-based structural health monitoring (SHM) has been proved to be effective in online structural damage detection and evaluation; furthermore, the characteristic parameters of the multi-mode Lamb wave varies in response to different types of damage in the composite material. This paper studies the damage identification approach for composite structures using the Lamb wave and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). The algorithm and principle of the GMM, and the parameter estimation, is introduced. Multi-statistical characteristic parameters of the excited Lamb waves are extracted, and the parameter space with reduced dimensions is adopted by principal component analysis (PCA). The damage identification system using the GMM is then established through training. Experiments on a glass fiber-reinforced epoxy composite laminate plate are conducted to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach in terms of damage classification. The experimental results show that different types of damage can be identified according to the value of the likelihood function of the GMM.

Mixture Rasch model for guessing group identification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siow, Hoo Leong; Mahdi, Rasidah; Siew, Eng Ling

2013-04-01

Several alternative dichotomous Item Response Theory (IRT) models have been introduced to account for guessing effect in multiple-choice assessment. The guessing effect in these models has been considered to be itemrelated. In the most classic case, pseudo-guessing in the three-parameter logistic IRT model is modeled to be the same for all the subjects but may vary across items. This is not realistic because subjects can guess worse or better than the pseudo-guessing. Derivation from the three-parameter logistic IRT model improves the situation by incorporating ability in guessing. However, it does not model non-monotone function. This paper proposes to study guessing from a subject-related aspect which is guessing test-taking behavior. Mixture Rasch model is employed to detect latent groups. A hybrid of mixture Rasch and 3-parameter logistic IRT model is proposed to model the behavior based guessing from the subjects' ways of responding the items. The subjects are assumed to simply choose a response at random. An information criterion is proposed to identify the behavior based guessing group. Results show that the proposed model selection criterion provides a promising method to identify the guessing group modeled by the hybrid model.

Heat transfer measurements for Stirling machine cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kornhauser, Alan A.; Kafka, B. C.; Finkbeiner, D. L.; Cantelmi, F. C.

1994-01-01

The primary purpose of this study was to measure the effects of inflow-produced heat turbulence on heat transfer in Stirling machine cylinders. A secondary purpose was to provide new experimental information on heat transfer in gas springs without inflow. The apparatus for the experiment consisted of a varying-volume piston-cylinder space connected to a fixed volume space by an orifice. The orifice size could be varied to adjust the level of inflow-produced turbulence, or the orifice plate could be removed completely so as to merge the two spaces into a single gas spring space. Speed, cycle mean pressure, overall volume ratio, and varying volume space clearance ratio could also be adjusted. Volume, pressure in both spaces, and local heat flux at two locations were measured. The pressure and volume measurements were used to calculate area averaged heat flux, heat transfer hysteresis loss, and other heat transfer-related effects. Experiments in the one space arrangement extended the range of previous gas spring tests to lower volume ratio and higher nondimensional speed. The tests corroborated previous results and showed that analytic models for heat transfer and loss based on volume ratio approaching 1 were valid for volume ratios ranging from 1 to 2, a range covering most gas springs in Stirling machines. Data from experiments in the two space arrangement were first analyzed based on lumping the two spaces together and examining total loss and averaged heat transfer as a function of overall nondimensional parameter. Heat transfer and loss were found to be significantly increased by inflow-produced turbulence. These increases could be modeled by appropriate adjustment of empirical coefficients in an existing semi-analytic model. An attempt was made to use an inverse, parameter optimization procedure to find the heat transfer in each of the two spaces. This procedure was successful in retrieving this information from simulated pressure-volume data with artificially generated noise, but it failed with the actual experimental data. This is evidence that the models used in the parameter optimization procedure (and to generate the simulated data) were not correct. Data from the surface heat flux sensors indicated that the primary shortcoming of these models was that they assumed turbulence levels to be constant over the cycle. Sensor data in the varying volume space showed a large increase in heat flux, probably due to turbulence, during the expansion stroke.

Exo-Milankovitch Cycles. I. Orbits and Rotation States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deitrick, Russell; Barnes, Rory; Quinn, Thomas R.; Armstrong, John; Charnay, Benjamin; Wilhelm, Caitlyn

2018-02-01

The obliquity of the Earth, which controls our seasons, varies by only ∼2.°5 over ∼40,000 years, and its eccentricity varies by only ∼0.05 over 100,000 years. Nonetheless, these small variations influence Earth’s ice ages. For exoplanets, however, variations can be significantly larger. Previous studies of the habitability of moonless Earth-like exoplanets have found that high obliquities, high eccentricities, and dynamical variations can extend the outer edge of the habitable zone by preventing runaway glaciation (snowball states). We expand upon these studies by exploring the orbital dynamics with a semianalytic model that allows us to map broad regions of parameter space. We find that, in general, the largest drivers of obliquity variations are secular spin–orbit resonances. We show how the obliquity varies in several test cases, including Kepler-62 f, across a wide range of orbital and spin parameters. These obliquity variations, alongside orbital variations, will have a dramatic impact on the climates of such planets.

Insolation-oriented model of photovoltaic module using Matlab/Simulink

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsai, Huan-Liang

2010-07-15

This paper presents a novel model of photovoltaic (PV) module which is implemented and analyzed using Matlab/Simulink software package. Taking the effect of sunlight irradiance on the cell temperature, the proposed model takes ambient temperature as reference input and uses the solar insolation as a unique varying parameter. The cell temperature is then explicitly affected by the sunlight intensity. The output current and power characteristics are simulated and analyzed using the proposed PV model. The model verification has been confirmed through an experimental measurement. The impact of solar irradiation on cell temperature makes the output characteristic more practical. In addition,more » the insolation-oriented PV model enables the dynamics of PV power system to be analyzed and optimized more easily by applying the environmental parameters of ambient temperature and solar irradiance. (author)« less

Visual detection following retinal damage: predictions of an inhomogeneous retino-cortical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnow, Thomas L.; Geisler, Wilson S.

1996-04-01

A model of human visual detection performance has been developed, based on available anatomical and physiological data for the primate visual system. The inhomogeneous retino- cortical (IRC) model computes detection thresholds by comparing simulated neural responses to target patterns with responses to a uniform background of the same luminance. The model incorporates human ganglion cell sampling distributions; macaque monkey ganglion cell receptive field properties; macaque cortical cell contrast nonlinearities; and a optical decision rule based on ideal observer theory. Spatial receptive field properties of cortical neurons were not included. Two parameters were allowed to vary while minimizing the squared error between predicted and observed thresholds. One parameter was decision efficiency, the other was the relative strength of the ganglion-cell center and surround. The latter was only allowed to vary within a small range consistent with known physiology. Contrast sensitivity was measured for sinewave gratings as a function of spatial frequency, target size and eccentricity. Contrast sensitivity was also measured for an airplane target as a function of target size, with and without artificial scotomas. The results of these experiments, as well as contrast sensitivity data from the literature were compared to predictions of the IRC model. Predictions were reasonably good for grating and airplane targets.

Modeling ocean primary production: Sensitivity to spectral resolution of attenuation and absorption of light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Helen; Merchant, Chris J.

2008-08-01

Modeling the vertical penetration of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) through the ocean, and its utilization by phytoplankton, is fundamental to simulating marine primary production. The variation of attenuation and absorption of light with wavelength suggests that photosynthesis should be modeled at high spectral resolution, but this is computationally expensive. To model primary production in global 3d models, a balance between computer time and accuracy is necessary. We investigate the effects of varying the spectral resolution of the underwater light field and the photosynthetic efficiency of phytoplankton ( α∗), on primary production using a 1d coupled ecosystem ocean turbulence model. The model is applied at three sites in the Atlantic Ocean (CIS (∼60°N), PAP (∼50°N) and ESTOC (∼30°N)) to include the effect of different meteorological forcing and parameter sets. We also investigate three different methods for modeling α∗ - as a fixed constant, varying with both wavelength and chlorophyll concentration [Bricaud, A., Morel, A., Babin, M., Allali, K., Claustre, H., 1998. Variations of light absorption by suspended particles with chlorophyll a concentration in oceanic (case 1) waters. Analysis and implications for bio-optical models. J. Geophys. Res. 103, 31033-31044], and using a non-spectral parameterization [Anderson, T.R., 1993. A spectrally averaged model of light penetration and photosynthesis. Limnol. Oceanogr. 38, 1403-1419]. After selecting the appropriate ecosystem parameters for each of the three sites we vary the spectral resolution of light and α∗ from 1 to 61 wavebands and study the results in conjunction with the three different α∗ estimation methods. The results show modeled estimates of ocean primary productivity are highly sensitive to the degree of spectral resolution and α∗. For accurate simulations of primary production and chlorophyll distribution we recommend a spectral resolution of at least six wavebands if α∗ is a function of wavelength and chlorophyll, and three wavebands if α∗ is a fixed value.

Dynamic model inversion techniques for breath-by-breath measurement of carbon dioxide from low bandwidth sensors.

PubMed

Sivaramakrishnan, Shyam; Rajamani, Rajesh; Johnson, Bruce D

2009-01-01

Respiratory CO(2) measurement (capnography) is an important diagnosis tool that lacks inexpensive and wearable sensors. This paper develops techniques to enable use of inexpensive but slow CO(2) sensors for breath-by-breath tracking of CO(2) concentration. This is achieved by mathematically modeling the dynamic response and using model-inversion techniques to predict input CO(2) concentration from the slow-varying output. Experiments are designed to identify model-dynamics and extract relevant model-parameters for a solidstate room monitoring CO(2) sensor. A second-order model that accounts for flow through the sensor's filter and casing is found to be accurate in describing the sensor's slow response. The resulting estimate is compared with a standard-of-care respiratory CO(2) analyzer and shown to effectively track variation in breath-by-breath CO(2) concentration. This methodology is potentially useful for measuring fast-varying inputs to any slow sensor.

Handling the unknown soil hydraulic parameters in data assimilation for unsaturated flow problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lange, Natascha; Erdal, Daniel; Neuweiler, Insa

2017-04-01

Model predictions of flow in the unsaturated zone require the soil hydraulic parameters. However, these parameters cannot be determined easily in applications, in particular if observations are indirect and cover only a small range of possible states. Correlation of parameters or their correlation in the range of states that are observed is a problem, as different parameter combinations may reproduce approximately the same measured water content. In field campaigns this problem can be helped by adding more measurement devices. Often, observation networks are designed to feed models for long term prediction purposes (i.e. for weather forecasting). A popular way of making predictions with such kind of observations are data assimilation methods, like the ensemble Kalman filter (Evensen, 1994). These methods can be used for parameter estimation if the unknown parameters are included in the state vector and updated along with the model states. Given the difficulties related to estimation of the soil hydraulic parameters in general, it is questionable, though, whether these methods can really be used for parameter estimation under natural conditions. Therefore, we investigate the ability of the ensemble Kalman filter to estimate the soil hydraulic parameters. We use synthetic identical twin-experiments to guarantee full knowledge of the model and the true parameters. We use the van Genuchten model to describe the soil water retention and relative permeability functions. This model is unfortunately prone to the above mentioned pseudo-correlations of parameters. Therefore, we also test the simpler Russo Gardner model, which is less affected by that problem, in our experiments. The total number of unknown parameters is varied by considering different layers of soil. Besides, we study the influence of the parameter updates on the water content predictions. We test different iterative filter approaches and compare different observation strategies for parameter identification. Considering heterogeneous soils, we discuss the representativeness of different observation types to be used for the assimilation. G. Evensen. Sequential data assimilation with a nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model using Monte Carlo methods to forecast error statistics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 99(C5):10143-10162, 1994

Controlling protein molecular dynamics: How to accelerate folding while preserving the native state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Christian H.; Nerukh, Dmitry; Glen, Robert C.

2008-12-01

The dynamics of peptides and proteins generated by classical molecular dynamics (MD) is described by using a Markov model. The model is built by clustering the trajectory into conformational states and estimating transition probabilities between the states. Assuming that it is possible to influence the dynamics of the system by varying simulation parameters, we show how to use the Markov model to determine the parameter values that preserve the folded state of the protein and at the same time, reduce the folding time in the simulation. We investigate this by applying the method to two systems. The first system is an imaginary peptide described by given transition probabilities with a total folding time of 1μs. We find that only small changes in the transition probabilities are needed to accelerate (or decelerate) the folding. This implies that folding times for slowly folding peptides and proteins calculated using MD cannot be meaningfully compared to experimental results. The second system is a four residue peptide valine-proline-alanine-leucine in water. We control the dynamics of the transitions by varying the temperature and the atom masses. The simulation results show that it is possible to find the combinations of parameter values that accelerate the dynamics and at the same time preserve the native state of the peptide. A method for accelerating larger systems without performing simulations for the whole folding process is outlined.

How does higher frequency monitoring data affect the calibration of a process-based water quality model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson-Blake, Leah; Helliwell, Rachel

2015-04-01

Process-based catchment water quality models are increasingly used as tools to inform land management. However, for such models to be reliable they need to be well calibrated and shown to reproduce key catchment processes. Calibration can be challenging for process-based models, which tend to be complex and highly parameterised. Calibrating a large number of parameters generally requires a large amount of monitoring data, spanning all hydrochemical conditions. However, regulatory agencies and research organisations generally only sample at a fortnightly or monthly frequency, even in well-studied catchments, often missing peak flow events. The primary aim of this study was therefore to investigate how the quality and uncertainty of model simulations produced by a process-based, semi-distributed catchment model, INCA-P (the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics), were improved by calibration to higher frequency water chemistry data. Two model calibrations were carried out for a small rural Scottish catchment: one using 18 months of daily total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) concentration data, another using a fortnightly dataset derived from the daily data. To aid comparability, calibrations were carried out automatically using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo - DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (MCMC-DREAM) algorithm. Calibration to daily data resulted in improved simulation of peak TDP concentrations and improved model performance statistics. Parameter-related uncertainty in simulated TDP was large when fortnightly data was used for calibration, with a 95% credible interval of 26 μg/l. This uncertainty is comparable in size to the difference between Water Framework Directive (WFD) chemical status classes, and would therefore make it difficult to use this calibration to predict shifts in WFD status. The 95% credible interval reduced markedly with the higher frequency monitoring data, to 6 μg/l. The number of parameters that could be reliably auto-calibrated was lower for the fortnightly data, with a physically unrealistic TDP simulation being produced when too many parameters were allowed to vary during model calibration. Parameters should not therefore be varied spatially for models such as INCA-P unless there is solid evidence that this is appropriate, or there is a real need to do so for the model to fulfil its purpose. This study highlights the potential pitfalls of using low frequency timeseries of observed water quality to calibrate complex process-based models. For reliable model calibrations to be produced, monitoring programmes need to be designed which capture system variability, in particular nutrient dynamics during high flow events. In addition, there is a need for simpler models, so that all model parameters can be included in auto-calibration and uncertainty analysis, and to reduce the data needs during calibration.

Physical modelling in biomechanics.

PubMed Central

Koehl, M A R

2003-01-01

Physical models, like mathematical models, are useful tools in biomechanical research. Physical models enable investigators to explore parameter space in a way that is not possible using a comparative approach with living organisms: parameters can be varied one at a time to measure the performance consequences of each, while values and combinations not found in nature can be tested. Experiments using physical models in the laboratory or field can circumvent problems posed by uncooperative or endangered organisms. Physical models also permit some aspects of the biomechanical performance of extinct organisms to be measured. Use of properly scaled physical models allows detailed physical measurements to be made for organisms that are too small or fast to be easily studied directly. The process of physical modelling and the advantages and limitations of this approach are illustrated using examples from our research on hydrodynamic forces on sessile organisms, mechanics of hydraulic skeletons, food capture by zooplankton and odour interception by olfactory antennules. PMID:14561350

Retrieving the optical parameters of biological tissues using diffuse reflectance spectroscopy and Fourier series expansions. I. theory and application.

PubMed

Muñoz Morales, Aarón A; Vázquez Y Montiel, Sergio

2012-10-01

The determination of optical parameters of biological tissues is essential for the application of optical techniques in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. Diffuse Reflection Spectroscopy is a widely used technique to analyze the optical characteristics of biological tissues. In this paper we show that by using diffuse reflectance spectra and a new mathematical model we can retrieve the optical parameters by applying an adjustment of the data with nonlinear least squares. In our model we represent the spectra using a Fourier series expansion finding mathematical relations between the polynomial coefficients and the optical parameters. In this first paper we use spectra generated by the Monte Carlo Multilayered Technique to simulate the propagation of photons in turbid media. Using these spectra we determine the behavior of Fourier series coefficients when varying the optical parameters of the medium under study. With this procedure we find mathematical relations between Fourier series coefficients and optical parameters. Finally, the results show that our method can retrieve the optical parameters of biological tissues with accuracy that is adequate for medical applications.

Evaluation of Smartphone Inertial Sensor Performance for Cross-Platform Mobile Applications

PubMed Central

Kos, Anton; Tomažič, Sašo; Umek, Anton

2016-01-01

Smartphone sensors are being increasingly used in mobile applications. The performance of sensors varies considerably among different smartphone models and the development of a cross-platform mobile application might be a very complex and demanding task. A publicly accessible resource containing real-life-situation smartphone sensor parameters could be of great help for cross-platform developers. To address this issue we have designed and implemented a pilot participatory sensing application for measuring, gathering, and analyzing smartphone sensor parameters. We start with smartphone accelerometer and gyroscope bias and noise parameters. The application database presently includes sensor parameters of more than 60 different smartphone models of different platforms. It is a modest, but important start, offering information on several statistical parameters of the measured smartphone sensors and insights into their performance. The next step, a large-scale cloud-based version of the application, is already planned. The large database of smartphone sensor parameters may prove particularly useful for cross-platform developers. It may also be interesting for individual participants who would be able to check-up and compare their smartphone sensors against a large number of similar or identical models. PMID:27049391

Path loss variation of on-body UWB channel in the frequency bands of IEEE 802.15.6 standard.

PubMed

Goswami, Dayananda; Sarma, Kanak C; Mahanta, Anil

2016-06-01

The wireless body area network (WBAN) has gaining tremendous attention among researchers and academicians for its envisioned applications in healthcare service. Ultra wideband (UWB) radio technology is considered as excellent air interface for communication among body area network devices. Characterisation and modelling of channel parameters are utmost prerequisite for the development of reliable communication system. The path loss of on-body UWB channel for each frequency band defined in IEEE 802.15.6 standard is experimentally determined. The parameters of path loss model are statistically determined by analysing measurement data. Both the line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight channel conditions are considered in the measurement. Variations of parameter values with the size of human body are analysed along with the variation of parameter values with the surrounding environments. It is observed that the parameters of the path loss model vary with the frequency band as well as with the body size and surrounding environment. The derived parameter values are specific to the particular frequency bands of IEEE 802.15.6 standard, which will be useful for the development of efficient UWB WBAN system.

A simplified model of precipitation enhancement over a heterogeneous surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cioni, Guido; Hohenegger, Cathy

2018-06-01

Soil moisture heterogeneities influence the onset of convection and subsequent evolution of precipitating systems through the triggering of mesoscale circulations. However, local evaporation also plays a role in determining precipitation amounts. Here we aim at disentangling the effect of advection and evaporation on precipitation over the course of a diurnal cycle by formulating a simple conceptual model. The derivation of the model is inspired by the results of simulations performed with a high-resolution (250 m) large eddy simulation model over a surface with varying degrees of heterogeneity. A key element of the conceptual model is the representation of precipitation as a weighted sum of advection and evaporation, each weighed by its own efficiency. The model is then used to isolate the main parameters that control precipitation variations over a spatially drier patch. It is found that these changes surprisingly do not depend on soil moisture itself but instead purely on parameters that describe the atmospheric initial state. The likelihood for enhanced precipitation over drier soils is discussed based on these parameters. Additional experiments are used to test the validity of the model.

Improved Strength and Damage Modeling of Geologic Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, Sarah; Senft, Laurel

2007-06-01

Collisions and impact cratering events are important processes in the evolution of planetary bodies. The time and length scales of planetary collisions, however, are inaccessible in the laboratory and require the use of shock physics codes. We present the results from a new rheological model for geological materials implemented in the CTH code [1]. The `ROCK' model includes pressure, temperature, and damage effects on strength, as well as acoustic fluidization during impact crater collapse. We demonstrate that the model accurately reproduces final crater shapes, tensile cracking, and damaged zones from laboratory to planetary scales. The strength model requires basic material properties; hence, the input parameters may be benchmarked to laboratory results and extended to planetary collision events. We show the effects of varying material strength parameters, which are dependent on both scale and strain rate, and discuss choosing appropriate parameters for laboratory and planetary situations. The results are a significant improvement in models of continuum rock deformation during large scale impact events. [1] Senft, L. E., Stewart, S. T. Modeling Impact Cratering in Layered Surfaces, J. Geophys. Res., submitted.

Modeling of laser-induced ionization of solid dielectrics for ablation simulations: role of effective mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruzdev, Vitaly

2010-11-01

Modeling of laser-induced ionization and heating of conduction-band electrons by laser radiation frequently serves as a basis for simulations supporting experimental studies of laser-induced ablation and damage of solid dielectrics. Together with band gap and electron-particle collision rate, effective electron mass is one of material parameters employed for the ionization modeling. Exact value of the effective mass is not known for many materials frequently utilized in experiments, e.g., fused silica and glasses. Because of that reason, value of the effective mass is arbitrary varied around "reasonable values" for the ionization modeling. In fact, it is utilized as a fitting parameter to fit experimental data on dependence of ablation or damage threshold on laser parameters. In this connection, we study how strong is the influence of variations of the effective mass on the value of conduction-band electron density. We consider influence of the effective mass on the photo-ionization rate and rate of impact ionization. In particular, it is shown that the photo-ionization rate can vary by 2-4 orders of magnitude with variation of effective mass by 50%. Impact ionization shows a much weaker dependence on effective mass, but it significantly enhances the variations of seed-electron density produced by the photo-ionization. Utilizing those results, we demonstrate that variation of effective mass by 50% produces variations of conduction-band electron density by 6 orders of magnitude. In this connection, we discuss the general issues of the current models of laser-induced ionization.

Bayesian Hierarchical Random Intercept Model Based on Three Parameter Gamma Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirawati, Ika; Iriawan, Nur; Irhamah

2017-06-01

Hierarchical data structures are common throughout many areas of research. Beforehand, the existence of this type of data was less noticed in the analysis. The appropriate statistical analysis to handle this type of data is the hierarchical linear model (HLM). This article will focus only on random intercept model (RIM), as a subclass of HLM. This model assumes that the intercept of models in the lowest level are varied among those models, and their slopes are fixed. The differences of intercepts were suspected affected by some variables in the upper level. These intercepts, therefore, are regressed against those upper level variables as predictors. The purpose of this paper would demonstrate a proven work of the proposed two level RIM of the modeling on per capita household expenditure in Maluku Utara, which has five characteristics in the first level and three characteristics of districts/cities in the second level. The per capita household expenditure data in the first level were captured by the three parameters Gamma distribution. The model, therefore, would be more complex due to interaction of many parameters for representing the hierarchical structure and distribution pattern of the data. To simplify the estimation processes of parameters, the computational Bayesian method couple with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and its Gibbs Sampling are employed.

Decoding the non-stationary neuron spike trains by dual Monte Carlo point process estimation in motor Brain Machine Interfaces.

PubMed

Liao, Yuxi; Li, Hongbao; Zhang, Qiaosheng; Fan, Gong; Wang, Yiwen; Zheng, Xiaoxiang

2014-01-01

Decoding algorithm in motor Brain Machine Interfaces translates the neural signals to movement parameters. They usually assume the connection between the neural firings and movements to be stationary, which is not true according to the recent studies that observe the time-varying neuron tuning property. This property results from the neural plasticity and motor learning etc., which leads to the degeneration of the decoding performance when the model is fixed. To track the non-stationary neuron tuning during decoding, we propose a dual model approach based on Monte Carlo point process filtering method that enables the estimation also on the dynamic tuning parameters. When applied on both simulated neural signal and in vivo BMI data, the proposed adaptive method performs better than the one with static tuning parameters, which raises a promising way to design a long-term-performing model for Brain Machine Interfaces decoder.

Aggregation-fragmentation-diffusion model for trail dynamics

DOE PAGES

Kawagoe, Kyle; Huber, Greg; Pradas, Marc; ...

2017-07-21

We investigate statistical properties of trails formed by a random process incorporating aggregation, fragmentation, and diffusion. In this stochastic process, which takes place in one spatial dimension, two neighboring trails may combine to form a larger one, and also one trail may split into two. In addition, trails move diffusively. The model is defined by two parameters which quantify the fragmentation rate and the fragment size. In the long-time limit, the system reaches a steady state, and our focus is the limiting distribution of trail weights. We find that the density of trail weight has power-law tail P(w)~w –γ formore » small weight w. We obtain the exponent γ analytically and find that it varies continuously with the two model parameters. In conclusion, the exponent γ can be positive or negative, so that in one range of parameters small-weight trails are abundant and in the complementary range they are rare.« less

Disentangling Disadvantage: Can We Distinguish Good Teaching from Classroom Composition?

PubMed

Zamarro, Gema; Engberg, John; Saavedra, Juan Esteban; Steele, Jennifer

This paper investigates the use of teacher value-added estimates to assess the distribution of effective teaching across students of varying socioeconomic disadvantage in the presence of classroom composition effects. We examine, via simulations, how accurately commonly-used teacher-value added estimators recover the rank correlation between true and estimated teacher effects and a parameter representing the distribution of effective teaching. We consider various scenarios of teacher assignment, within-teacher variability in classroom composition, importance of classroom composition effects, and presence of student unobserved heterogeneity. No single model recovers without bias estimates of the distribution parameter in all the scenarios we consider. Models that rank teacher effectiveness most accurately do not necessarily recover distribution parameter estimates with less bias. Since true teacher sorting in real data is seldom known, we recommend that analysts incorporate contextual information into their decisions about model choice and we offer some guidance on how to do so.

Modeling information diffusion in time-varying community networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xuelian; Zhao, Narisa

2017-12-01

Social networks are rarely static, and they typically have time-varying network topologies. A great number of studies have modeled temporal networks and explored social contagion processes within these models; however, few of these studies have considered community structure variations. In this paper, we present a study of how the time-varying property of a modular structure influences the information dissemination. First, we propose a continuous-time Markov model of information diffusion where two parameters, mobility rate and community attractiveness, are introduced to address the time-varying nature of the community structure. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the accuracy of this model is evaluated by comparing the simulation and theoretical results. Furthermore, numerical results illustrate that generally both the mobility rate and community attractiveness significantly promote the information diffusion process, especially in the initial outbreak stage. Moreover, the strength of this promotion effect is much stronger when the modularity is higher. Counterintuitively, it is found that when all communities have the same attractiveness, social mobility no longer accelerates the diffusion process. In addition, we show that the local spreading in the advantage group has been greatly enhanced due to the agglomeration effect caused by the social mobility and community attractiveness difference, which thus increases the global spreading.

Effects of developmental variability on the dynamics and self-organization of cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhakara, Kaumudi H.; Gholami, Azam; Zykov, Vladimir S.; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2017-11-01

We report experimental and theoretical results for spatiotemporal pattern formation in cell populations, where the parameters vary in space and time due to mechanisms intrinsic to the system, namely Dictyostelium discoideum (D.d.) in the starvation phase. We find that different patterns are formed when the populations are initialized at different developmental stages, or when populations at different initial developmental stages are mixed. The experimentally observed patterns can be understood with a modified Kessler-Levine model that takes into account the initial spatial heterogeneity of the cell populations and a developmental path introduced by us, i.e. the time dependence of the various biochemical parameters. The dynamics of the parameters agree with known biochemical studies. Most importantly, the modified model reproduces not only our results, but also the observations of an independent experiment published earlier. This shows that pattern formation can be used to understand and quantify the temporal evolution of the system parameters.

A computational model of selection by consequences.

PubMed Central

McDowell, J J

2004-01-01

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of computational experiments that arranged reinforcement according to random-interval (RI) schedules. The quantitative features of the model were varied over wide ranges in these experiments, and many of the qualitative features of the model also were varied. The digital organism consistently showed a hyperbolic relation between response and reinforcement rates, and this hyperbolic description of the data was consistently better than the description provided by other, similar, function forms. In addition, the parameters of the hyperbola varied systematically with the quantitative, and some of the qualitative, properties of the model in ways that were consistent with findings from biological organisms. These results suggest that the material events responsible for an organism's responding on RI schedules are computationally equivalent to Darwinian selection by consequences. They also suggest that the computational model developed here is worth pursuing further as a possible dynamic account of behavior. PMID:15357512

Prediction of Tensile Strength of Friction Stir Weld Joints with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Neural Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dewan, Mohammad W.; Huggett, Daniel J.; Liao, T. Warren; Wahab, Muhammad A.; Okeil, Ayman M.

2015-01-01

Friction-stir-welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process where joint properties are dependent on welding process parameters. In the current study three critical process parameters including spindle speed (??), plunge force (????), and welding speed (??) are considered key factors in the determination of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of welded aluminum alloy joints. A total of 73 weld schedules were welded and tensile properties were subsequently obtained experimentally. It is observed that all three process parameters have direct influence on UTS of the welded joints. Utilizing experimental data, an optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model has been developed to predict UTS of FSW joints. A total of 1200 models were developed by varying the number of membership functions (MFs), type of MFs, and combination of four input variables (??,??,????,??????) utilizing a MATLAB platform. Note EFI denotes an empirical force index derived from the three process parameters. For comparison, optimized artificial neural network (ANN) models were also developed to predict UTS from FSW process parameters. By comparing ANFIS and ANN predicted results, it was found that optimized ANFIS models provide better results than ANN. This newly developed best ANFIS model could be utilized for prediction of UTS of FSW joints.

Switching LPV Control for High Performance Tactical Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Bei; Wu, Fen; Kim, SungWan

2004-01-01

This paper examines a switching Linear Parameter-Varying (LPV) control approach to determine if it is practical to use for flight control designs within a wide angle of attack region. The approach is based on multiple parameter-dependent Lyapunov functions. The full parameter space is partitioned into overlapping subspaces and a family of LPV controllers are designed, each suitable for a specific parameter subspace. The hysteresis switching logic is used to accomplish the transition among different parameter subspaces. The proposed switching LPV control scheme is applied to an F-16 aircraft model with different actuator dynamics in low and high angle of attack regions. The nonlinear simulation results show that the aircraft performs well when switching among different angle of attack regions.

Uncertainty analyses of the calibrated parameter values of a water quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rode, M.; Suhr, U.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.

2003-04-01

For river basin management water quality models are increasingly used for the analysis and evaluation of different management measures. However substantial uncertainties exist in parameter values depending on the available calibration data. In this paper an uncertainty analysis for a water quality model is presented, which considers the impact of available model calibration data and the variance of input variables. The investigation was conducted based on four extensive flowtime related longitudinal surveys in the River Elbe in the years 1996 to 1999 with varying discharges and seasonal conditions. For the model calculations the deterministic model QSIM of the BfG (Germany) was used. QSIM is a one dimensional water quality model and uses standard algorithms for hydrodynamics and phytoplankton dynamics in running waters, e.g. Michaelis Menten/Monod kinetics, which are used in a wide range of models. The multi-objective calibration of the model was carried out with the nonlinear parameter estimator PEST. The results show that for individual flow time related measuring surveys very good agreements between model calculation and measured values can be obtained. If these parameters are applied to deviating boundary conditions, substantial errors in model calculation can occur. These uncertainties can be decreased with an increased calibration database. More reliable model parameters can be identified, which supply reasonable results for broader boundary conditions. The extension of the application of the parameter set on a wider range of water quality conditions leads to a slight reduction of the model precision for the specific water quality situation. Moreover the investigations show that highly variable water quality variables like the algal biomass always allow a smaller forecast accuracy than variables with lower coefficients of variation like e.g. nitrate.

Testing the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batelis, Stamatios-Christos; Rosolem, Rafael; Han, Dawei; Rahman, Mostaquimur

2017-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSM) are based on physics principles and simulate the exchanges of energy, water and biogeochemical cycles between the land surface and lower atmosphere. Such models are typically applied for climate studies or effects of land use changes but as the resolution of LSMs and supporting observations are continuously increasing, its representation of hydrological processes need to be addressed adequately. For example, changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology of a region, for instance, by altering its flooding regime. LSMs can be a powerful tool because of their ability to spatially represent a region with much finer resolution. However, despite such advantages, its performance has not been extensively assessed for flood forecasting simply because its representation of typical hydrological processes, such as overland flow and river routing, are still either ignored or roughly represented. In this study, we initially test the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) as a flood forecast tool focusing on its river routing scheme. In particular, JULES river routing parameterization is based on the Rapid Flow Model (RFM) which relies on six prescribed parameters (two surface and two subsurface wave celerities, and two return flow fractions). Although this routing scheme is simple, the prescription of its six default parameters is still too generalized. Our aim is to understand the importance of each RFM parameter in a series of JULES simulations at a number of catchments in the UK for the 2006-2015 period. This is carried out, for instance, by making a number of assumptions of parameter behaviour (e.g., spatially uniform versus varying and/or temporally constant or time-varying parameters within each catchment). Hourly rainfall radar in combination with the CHESS (Climate, Hydrological and Ecological research Support System) meteorological daily data both at 1 km2 resolution are used. The evaluation of the model is based on hourly runoff data provided by the National River Flood Archive using a number of model performance metrics. We use a calibrated conceptually-based lumped model, more typically applied in flood studies, as a benchmark for our analysis.

Kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of water ice porosity: extrapolations of deposition parameters from the laboratory to interstellar space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clements, Aspen R.; Berk, Brandon; Cooke, Ilsa R.; Garrod, Robin T.

2018-02-01

Using an off-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo model we reproduce experimental laboratory trends in the density of amorphous solid water (ASW) for varied deposition angle, rate and surface temperature. Extrapolation of the model to conditions appropriate to protoplanetary disks and interstellar dark clouds indicate that these ices may be less porous than laboratory ices.

Instantaneous polarization statistic property of EM waves incident on time-varying reentry plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Bowen; Liu, Yanming; Li, Xiaoping; Yao, Bo; Shi, Lei

2018-06-01

An analytical method is proposed in this paper to study the effect of time-varying reentry plasma sheath on the instantaneous polarization statistic property of electromagnetic (EM) waves. Based on the disturbance property of the hypersonic fluid, the spatial-temporal model of the time-varying reentry plasma sheath is established. An analytical technique referred to as transmission line analogy is developed to calculate the instantaneous transmission coefficient of EM wave propagation in time-varying plasma. Then, the instantaneous polarization statistic theory of EM wave propagation in the time-varying plasma sheath is developed. Taking the S-band telemetry right hand circularly polarized wave as an example, effects of incident angle and plasma parameters, including the electron density and the collision frequency on the EM wave's polarization statistic property are studied systematically. Statistical results indicate that the lower the collision frequency and the larger the electron density and incident angle is, the worse the deterioration of the polarization property is. Meanwhile, in conditions of critical parameters of certain electron density, collision frequency, and incident angle, the transmitted waves have both the right and left hand polarization mode, and the polarization mode will reverse. The calculation results could provide useful information for adaptive polarization receiving of the spacecraft's reentry communication.

Modeling clear-sky solar radiation across a range of elevations in Hawai‘i: Comparing the use of input parameters at different temporal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longman, Ryan J.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Frazier, Abby G.

2012-01-01

Estimates of clear sky global solar irradiance using the parametric model SPCTRAL2 were tested against clear sky radiation observations at four sites in Hawai`i using daily, mean monthly, and 1 year mean model parameter settings. Atmospheric parameters in SPCTRAL2 and similar models are usually set at site-specific values and are not varied to represent the effects of fluctuating humidity, aerosol amount and type, or ozone concentration, because time-dependent atmospheric parameter estimates are not available at most sites of interest. In this study, we sought to determine the added value of using time dependent as opposed to fixed model input parameter settings. At the AERONET site, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) on the island of Hawai`i, where daily measurements of atmospheric optical properties and hourly solar radiation observations are available, use of daily rather than 1 year mean aerosol parameter values reduced mean bias error (MBE) from 18 to 10 W m-2 and root mean square error from 25 to 17 W m-2. At three stations in the HaleNet climate network, located at elevations of 960, 1640, and 2590 m on the island of Maui, where aerosol-related parameter settings were interpolated from observed values for AERONET sites at MLO (3397 m) and Lāna`i (20 m), and precipitable water was estimated using radiosonde-derived humidity profiles from nearby Hilo, the model performed best when using constant 1 year mean parameter values. At HaleNet Station 152, for example, MBE was 18, 10, and 8 W m-2 for daily, monthly, and 1 year mean parameters, respectively.

Visual Predictive Check in Models with Time-Varying Input Function.

PubMed

Largajolli, Anna; Bertoldo, Alessandra; Campioni, Marco; Cobelli, Claudio

2015-11-01

The nonlinear mixed effects models are commonly used modeling techniques in the pharmaceutical research as they enable the characterization of the individual profiles together with the population to which the individuals belong. To ensure a correct use of them is fundamental to provide powerful diagnostic tools that are able to evaluate the predictive performance of the models. The visual predictive check (VPC) is a commonly used tool that helps the user to check by visual inspection if the model is able to reproduce the variability and the main trend of the observed data. However, the simulation from the model is not always trivial, for example, when using models with time-varying input function (IF). In this class of models, there is a potential mismatch between each set of simulated parameters and the associated individual IF which can cause an incorrect profile simulation. We introduce a refinement of the VPC by taking in consideration a correlation term (the Mahalanobis or normalized Euclidean distance) that helps the association of the correct IF with the individual set of simulated parameters. We investigate and compare its performance with the standard VPC in models of the glucose and insulin system applied on real and simulated data and in a simulated pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) example. The newly proposed VPC performance appears to be better with respect to the standard VPC especially for the models with big variability in the IF where the probability of simulating incorrect profiles is higher.

Evaluation of dynamically downscaled extreme temperature using a spatially-aggregated generalized extreme value (GEV) model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jiali; Han, Yuefeng; Stein, Michael L.

2016-02-10

The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model downscaling skill in extreme maximum daily temperature is evaluated by using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. While the GEV distribution has been used extensively in climatology and meteorology for estimating probabilities of extreme events, accurately estimating GEV parameters based on data from a single pixel can be difficult, even with fairly long data records. This work proposes a simple method assuming that the shape parameter, the most difficult of the three parameters to estimate, does not vary over a relatively large region. This approach is applied to evaluate 31-year WRF-downscaled extreme maximummore » temperature through comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. Uncertainty in GEV parameter estimates and the statistical significance in the differences of estimates between WRF and NARR are accounted for by conducting bootstrap resampling. Despite certain biases over parts of the United States, overall, WRF shows good agreement with NARR in the spatial pattern and magnitudes of GEV parameter estimates. Both WRF and NARR show a significant increase in extreme maximum temperature over the southern Great Plains and southeastern United States in January and over the western United States in July. The GEV model shows clear benefits from the regionally constant shape parameter assumption, for example, leading to estimates of the location and scale parameters of the model that show coherent spatial patterns.« less

Modelling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dobešová, Anna; Klepáč, Václav; Kolman, Pavel

2015-03-10

The aim of this paper is to compare different approaches to modeling of volatility in monetary transmission mechanism. For this purpose we built time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility and VAR-DCC-GARCH model with conditional variance. The data from three European countries are included in the analysis: the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. Results show that VAR-DCC-GARCH system captures higher volatility of observed variables but main trends and detected breaks are generally identical in both approaches.

An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carenzo, M.; Pellicciotti, F.; Mabillard, J.; Reid, T.; Brock, B. W.

2016-08-01

Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the Østrem curve. Its large number of parameters might be a limitation, but we show that the model is transferable in time and space to a second glacier with little loss of performance. We thus suggest that the new DETI model can be included in continuous mass balance models of debris-covered glaciers, because of its limited data requirements. As such, we expect its application to lead to an improvement in simulations of the debris-covered glacier response to climate in comparison with models that simply recalibrate empirical parameters to prescribe a constant across glacier reduction in melt.

An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect.

PubMed

Carenzo, M; Pellicciotti, F; Mabillard, J; Reid, T; Brock, B W

2016-08-01

Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the Østrem curve. Its large number of parameters might be a limitation, but we show that the model is transferable in time and space to a second glacier with little loss of performance. We thus suggest that the new DETI model can be included in continuous mass balance models of debris-covered glaciers, because of its limited data requirements. As such, we expect its application to lead to an improvement in simulations of the debris-covered glacier response to climate in comparison with models that simply recalibrate empirical parameters to prescribe a constant across glacier reduction in melt.

Analysing the influence of FSP process parameters on IGC susceptibility of AA5083 using Sugeno - Fuzzy model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakarthick, C.; Povendhan, A. P.; Vaira Vignesh, R.; Padmanaban, R.

2018-02-01

Aluminium alloy AA5083 was friction stir processed to improve the intergranular corrosion (IGC) resistance. FSP trials were performed by varying the process parameters as per Taguchi’s L18 orthogonal array. IGC resistance of the friction stir processed specimens were found by immersing them in concentrated nitric acid and measuring the mass loss per unit area. Results indicate that dispersion and partial dissolution of secondary phase increased IGC resistance of the friction stir processed specimens. A Sugeno fuzzy model was developed to study the effect of FSP process parameters on the IGC susceptibility of friction stir processed specimens. Tool Rotation Speed, Tool Traverse Speed and Shoulder Diameter have a significant effect on the IGC susceptibility of the friction stir processed specimens.

Nonlinear mathematical modeling and sensitivity analysis of hydraulic drive unit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Xiangdong; Yu, Bin; Quan, Lingxiao; Ba, Kaixian; Wu, Liujie

2015-09-01

The previous sensitivity analysis researches are not accurate enough and also have the limited reference value, because those mathematical models are relatively simple and the change of the load and the initial displacement changes of the piston are ignored, even experiment verification is not conducted. Therefore, in view of deficiencies above, a nonlinear mathematical model is established in this paper, including dynamic characteristics of servo valve, nonlinear characteristics of pressure-flow, initial displacement of servo cylinder piston and friction nonlinearity. The transfer function block diagram is built for the hydraulic drive unit closed loop position control, as well as the state equations. Through deriving the time-varying coefficient items matrix and time-varying free items matrix of sensitivity equations respectively, the expression of sensitivity equations based on the nonlinear mathematical model are obtained. According to structure parameters of hydraulic drive unit, working parameters, fluid transmission characteristics and measured friction-velocity curves, the simulation analysis of hydraulic drive unit is completed on the MATLAB/Simulink simulation platform with the displacement step 2 mm, 5 mm and 10 mm, respectively. The simulation results indicate that the developed nonlinear mathematical model is sufficient by comparing the characteristic curves of experimental step response and simulation step response under different constant load. Then, the sensitivity function time-history curves of seventeen parameters are obtained, basing on each state vector time-history curve of step response characteristic. The maximum value of displacement variation percentage and the sum of displacement variation absolute values in the sampling time are both taken as sensitivity indexes. The sensitivity indexes values above are calculated and shown visually in histograms under different working conditions, and change rules are analyzed. Then the sensitivity indexes values of four measurable parameters, such as supply pressure, proportional gain, initial position of servo cylinder piston and load force, are verified experimentally on test platform of hydraulic drive unit, and the experimental research shows that the sensitivity analysis results obtained through simulation are approximate to the test results. This research indicates each parameter sensitivity characteristics of hydraulic drive unit, the performance-affected main parameters and secondary parameters are got under different working conditions, which will provide the theoretical foundation for the control compensation and structure optimization of hydraulic drive unit.

Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

Applying the relaxation model of interfacial heat transfer to calculate the liquid outflow with supercritical initial parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, M. V.; Vozhakov, I. S.; Lezhnin, S. I.; Pribaturin, N. A.

2017-09-01

A comparative numerical simulation of the supercritical fluid outflow on the thermodynamic equilibrium and non-equilibrium relaxation models of phase transition for different times of relaxation has been performed. The model for the fixed relaxation time based on the experimentally determined radius of liquid droplets was compared with the model of dynamically changing relaxation time, calculated by the formula (7) and depending on local parameters. It is shown that the relaxation time varies significantly depending on the thermodynamic conditions of the two-phase medium in the course of outflowing. The application of the proposed model with dynamic relaxation time leads to qualitatively correct results. The model can be used for both vaporization and condensation processes. It is shown that the model can be improved on the basis of processing experimental data on the distribution of the droplet sizes formed during the breaking up of the liquid jet.

A Framework for Cloudy Model Optimization and Database Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvén, Emilia; Helton, Andrew; Sankrit, Ravi

2018-01-01

We present a framework for producing Cloudy photoionization models of the nebular emission from novae ejecta and storing a subset of the results in SQL database format for later usage. The database can be searched for models best fitting observed spectral line ratios. Additionally, the framework includes an optimization feature that can be used in tandem with the database to search for and improve on models by creating new Cloudy models while, varying the parameters. The database search and optimization can be used to explore the structures of nebulae by deriving their properties from the best-fit models. The goal is to provide the community with a large database of Cloudy photoionization models, generated from parameters reflecting conditions within novae ejecta, that can be easily fitted to observed spectral lines; either by directly accessing the database using the framework code or by usage of a website specifically made for this purpose.

Upper limb strength estimation of physically impaired persons using a musculoskeletal model: A sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Carmichael, Marc G; Liu, Dikai

2015-01-01

Sensitivity of upper limb strength calculated from a musculoskeletal model was analyzed, with focus on how the sensitivity is affected when the model is adapted to represent a person with physical impairment. Sensitivity was calculated with respect to four muscle-tendon parameters: muscle peak isometric force, muscle optimal length, muscle pennation, and tendon slack length. Results obtained from a musculoskeletal model of average strength showed highest sensitivity to tendon slack length, followed by muscle optimal length and peak isometric force, which is consistent with existing studies. Muscle pennation angle was relatively insensitive. The analysis was repeated after adapting the musculoskeletal model to represent persons with varying severities of physical impairment. Results showed that utilizing the weakened model significantly increased the sensitivity of the calculated strength at the hand, with parameters previously insensitive becoming highly sensitive. This increased sensitivity presents a significant challenge in applications utilizing musculoskeletal models to represent impaired individuals.

Adaptive LINE-P: An Adaptive Linear Energy Prediction Model for Wireless Sensor Network Nodes.

PubMed

Ahmed, Faisal; Tamberg, Gert; Le Moullec, Yannick; Annus, Paul

2018-04-05

In the context of wireless sensor networks, energy prediction models are increasingly useful tools that can facilitate the power management of the wireless sensor network (WSN) nodes. However, most of the existing models suffer from the so-called fixed weighting parameter, which limits their applicability when it comes to, e.g., solar energy harvesters with varying characteristics. Thus, in this article we propose the Adaptive LINE-P (all cases) model that calculates adaptive weighting parameters based on the stored energy profiles. Furthermore, we also present a profile compression method to reduce the memory requirements. To determine the performance of our proposed model, we have used real data for the solar and wind energy profiles. The simulation results show that our model achieves 90-94% accuracy and that the compressed method reduces memory overheads by 50% as compared to state-of-the-art models.

Adaptive LINE-P: An Adaptive Linear Energy Prediction Model for Wireless Sensor Network Nodes

PubMed Central

Ahmed, Faisal

2018-01-01

In the context of wireless sensor networks, energy prediction models are increasingly useful tools that can facilitate the power management of the wireless sensor network (WSN) nodes. However, most of the existing models suffer from the so-called fixed weighting parameter, which limits their applicability when it comes to, e.g., solar energy harvesters with varying characteristics. Thus, in this article we propose the Adaptive LINE-P (all cases) model that calculates adaptive weighting parameters based on the stored energy profiles. Furthermore, we also present a profile compression method to reduce the memory requirements. To determine the performance of our proposed model, we have used real data for the solar and wind energy profiles. The simulation results show that our model achieves 90–94% accuracy and that the compressed method reduces memory overheads by 50% as compared to state-of-the-art models. PMID:29621169

Translating landfill methane generation parameters among first-order decay models.

PubMed

Krause, Max J; Chickering, Giles W; Townsend, Timothy G

2016-11-01

Landfill gas (LFG) generation is predicted by a first-order decay (FOD) equation that incorporates two parameters: a methane generation potential (L 0 ) and a methane generation rate (k). Because non-hazardous waste landfills may accept many types of waste streams, multiphase models have been developed in an attempt to more accurately predict methane generation from heterogeneous waste streams. The ability of a single-phase FOD model to predict methane generation using weighted-average methane generation parameters and tonnages translated from multiphase models was assessed in two exercises. In the first exercise, waste composition from four Danish landfills represented by low-biodegradable waste streams was modeled in the Afvalzorg Multiphase Model and methane generation was compared to the single-phase Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Waste Model and LandGEM. In the second exercise, waste composition represented by IPCC waste components was modeled in the multiphase IPCC and compared to single-phase LandGEM and Australia's Solid Waste Calculator (SWC). In both cases, weight-averaging of methane generation parameters from waste composition data in single-phase models was effective in predicting cumulative methane generation from -7% to +6% of the multiphase models. The results underscore the understanding that multiphase models will not necessarily improve LFG generation prediction because the uncertainty of the method rests largely within the input parameters. A unique method of calculating the methane generation rate constant by mass of anaerobically degradable carbon was presented (k c ) and compared to existing methods, providing a better fit in 3 of 8 scenarios. Generally, single phase models with weighted-average inputs can accurately predict methane generation from multiple waste streams with varied characteristics; weighted averages should therefore be used instead of regional default values when comparing models. Translating multiphase first-order decay model input parameters by weighted average shows that single-phase models can predict cumulative methane generation within the level of uncertainty of many of the input parameters as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which indicates that decreasing the uncertainty of the input parameters will make the model more accurate rather than adding multiple phases or input parameters.

Cavity parameters identification for TESLA control system development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czarski, Tomasz; Pozniak, Krysztof T.; Romaniuk, Ryszard S.; Simrock, Stefan

2005-08-01

Aim of the control system development for TESLA cavity is a more efficient stabilization of the pulsed, accelerating EM field inside resonator. Cavity parameters identification is an essential task for the comprehensive control algorithm. TESLA cavity simulator has been successfully implemented using high-speed FPGA technology. Electromechanical model of the cavity resonator includes Lorentz force detuning and beam loading. The parameters identification is based on the electrical model of the cavity. The model is represented by state space equation for envelope of the cavity voltage driven by current generator and beam loading. For a given model structure, the over-determined matrix equation is created covering long enough measurement range with the solution according to the least-squares method. A low-degree polynomial approximation is applied to estimate the time-varying cavity detuning during the pulse. The measurement channel distortion is considered, leading to the external cavity model seen by the controller. The comprehensive algorithm of the cavity parameters identification was implemented in the Matlab system with different modes of operation. Some experimental results were presented for different cavity operational conditions. The following considerations have lead to the synthesis of the efficient algorithm for the cavity control system predicted for the potential FPGA technology implementation.

System health monitoring using multiple-model adaptive estimation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sifford, Stanley Ryan

Monitoring system health for fault detection and diagnosis by tracking system parameters concurrently with state estimates is approached using a new multiple-model adaptive estimation (MMAE) method. This novel method is called GRid-based Adaptive Parameter Estimation (GRAPE). GRAPE expands existing MMAE methods by using new techniques to sample the parameter space. GRAPE expands on MMAE with the hypothesis that sample models can be applied and resampled without relying on a predefined set of models. GRAPE is initially implemented in a linear framework using Kalman filter models. A more generalized GRAPE formulation is presented using extended Kalman filter (EKF) models to represent nonlinear systems. GRAPE can handle both time invariant and time varying systems as it is designed to track parameter changes. Two techniques are presented to generate parameter samples for the parallel filter models. The first approach is called selected grid-based stratification (SGBS). SGBS divides the parameter space into equally spaced strata. The second approach uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to determine the parameter locations and minimize the total number of required models. LHS is particularly useful when the parameter dimensions grow. Adding more parameters does not require the model count to increase for LHS. Each resample is independent of the prior sample set other than the location of the parameter estimate. SGBS and LHS can be used for both the initial sample and subsequent resamples. Furthermore, resamples are not required to use the same technique. Both techniques are demonstrated for both linear and nonlinear frameworks. The GRAPE framework further formalizes the parameter tracking process through a general approach for nonlinear systems. These additional methods allow GRAPE to either narrow the focus to converged values within a parameter range or expand the range in the appropriate direction to track the parameters outside the current parameter range boundary. Customizable rules define the specific resample behavior when the GRAPE parameter estimates converge. Convergence itself is determined from the derivatives of the parameter estimates using a simple moving average window to filter out noise. The system can be tuned to match the desired performance goals by making adjustments to parameters such as the sample size, convergence criteria, resample criteria, initial sampling method, resampling method, confidence in prior sample covariances, sample delay, and others.

Sequential Least-Squares Using Orthogonal Transformations. [spacecraft communication/spacecraft tracking-data smoothing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bierman, G. J.

1975-01-01

Square root information estimation, starting from its beginnings in least-squares parameter estimation, is considered. Special attention is devoted to discussions of sensitivity and perturbation matrices, computed solutions and their formal statistics, consider-parameters and consider-covariances, and the effects of a priori statistics. The constant-parameter model is extended to include time-varying parameters and process noise, and the error analysis capabilities are generalized. Efficient and elegant smoothing results are obtained as easy consequences of the filter formulation. The value of the techniques is demonstrated by the navigation results that were obtained for the Mariner Venus-Mercury (Mariner 10) multiple-planetary space probe and for the Viking Mars space mission.

Comparison of results from simple expressions for MOSFET parameter extraction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buehler, M. G.; Lin, Y.-S.

1988-01-01

In this paper results are compared from a parameter extraction procedure applied to the linear, saturation, and subthreshold regions for enhancement-mode MOSFETs fabricated in a 3-micron CMOS process. The results indicate that the extracted parameters differ significantly depending on the extraction algorithm and the distribution of I-V data points. It was observed that KP values vary by 30 percent, VT values differ by 50 mV, and Delta L values differ by 1 micron. Thus for acceptance of wafers from foundries and for modeling purposes, the extraction method and data point distribution must be specified. In this paper measurement and extraction procedures that will allow a consistent evaluation of measured parameters are discussed.

A biodynamic feedthrough model based on neuromuscular principles.

PubMed

Venrooij, Joost; Abbink, David A; Mulder, Mark; van Paassen, Marinus M; Mulder, Max; van der Helm, Frans C T; Bulthoff, Heinrich H

2014-07-01

A biodynamic feedthrough (BDFT) model is proposed that describes how vehicle accelerations feed through the human body, causing involuntary limb motions and so involuntary control inputs. BDFT dynamics strongly depend on limb dynamics, which can vary between persons (between-subject variability), but also within one person over time, e.g., due to the control task performed (within-subject variability). The proposed BDFT model is based on physical neuromuscular principles and is derived from an established admittance model-describing limb dynamics-which was extended to include control device dynamics and account for acceleration effects. The resulting BDFT model serves primarily the purpose of increasing the understanding of the relationship between neuromuscular admittance and biodynamic feedthrough. An added advantage of the proposed model is that its parameters can be estimated using a two-stage approach, making the parameter estimation more robust, as the procedure is largely based on the well documented procedure required for the admittance model. To estimate the parameter values of the BDFT model, data are used from an experiment in which both neuromuscular admittance and biodynamic feedthrough are measured. The quality of the BDFT model is evaluated in the frequency and time domain. Results provide strong evidence that the BDFT model and the proposed method of parameter estimation put forward in this paper allows for accurate BDFT modeling across different subjects (accounting for between-subject variability) and across control tasks (accounting for within-subject variability).

Model for the alpha and beta shear-mechanical properties of supercooled liquids and its comparison to squalane data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecksher, Tina; Olsen, Niels Boye; Dyre, Jeppe C.

2017-04-01

This paper presents data for supercooled squalane's frequency-dependent shear modulus covering frequencies from 10 mHz to 30 kHz and temperatures from 168 K to 190 K; measurements are also reported for the glass phase down to 146 K. The data reveal a strong mechanical beta process. A model is proposed for the shear response of the metastable equilibrium liquid phase of supercooled liquids. The model is an electrical equivalent-circuit characterized by additivity of the dynamic shear compliances of the alpha and beta processes. The nontrivial parts of the alpha and beta processes are each represented by a "Cole-Cole retardation element" defined as a series connection of a capacitor and a constant-phase element, resulting in the Cole-Cole compliance function well-known from dielectrics. The model, which assumes that the high-frequency decay of the alpha shear compliance loss varies with the angular frequency as ω-1 /2, has seven parameters. Assuming time-temperature superposition for the alpha and beta processes separately, the number of parameters varying with temperature is reduced to four. The model provides a better fit to the data than an equally parametrized Havriliak-Negami type model. From the temperature dependence of the best-fit model parameters, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the alpha relaxation time conforms to the shoving model; (2) the beta relaxation loss-peak frequency is almost temperature independent; (3) the alpha compliance magnitude, which in the model equals the inverse of the instantaneous shear modulus, is only weakly temperature dependent; (4) the beta compliance magnitude decreases by a factor of three upon cooling in the temperature range studied. The final part of the paper briefly presents measurements of the dynamic adiabatic bulk modulus covering frequencies from 10 mHz to 10 kHz in the temperature range from 172 K to 200 K. The data are qualitatively similar to the shear modulus data by having a significant beta process. A single-order-parameter framework is suggested to rationalize these similarities.

Model for the alpha and beta shear-mechanical properties of supercooled liquids and its comparison to squalane data.

PubMed

Hecksher, Tina; Olsen, Niels Boye; Dyre, Jeppe C

2017-04-21

This paper presents data for supercooled squalane's frequency-dependent shear modulus covering frequencies from 10 mHz to 30 kHz and temperatures from 168 K to 190 K; measurements are also reported for the glass phase down to 146 K. The data reveal a strong mechanical beta process. A model is proposed for the shear response of the metastable equilibrium liquid phase of supercooled liquids. The model is an electrical equivalent-circuit characterized by additivity of the dynamic shear compliances of the alpha and beta processes. The nontrivial parts of the alpha and beta processes are each represented by a "Cole-Cole retardation element" defined as a series connection of a capacitor and a constant-phase element, resulting in the Cole-Cole compliance function well-known from dielectrics. The model, which assumes that the high-frequency decay of the alpha shear compliance loss varies with the angular frequency as ω -1/2 , has seven parameters. Assuming time-temperature superposition for the alpha and beta processes separately, the number of parameters varying with temperature is reduced to four. The model provides a better fit to the data than an equally parametrized Havriliak-Negami type model. From the temperature dependence of the best-fit model parameters, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) the alpha relaxation time conforms to the shoving model; (2) the beta relaxation loss-peak frequency is almost temperature independent; (3) the alpha compliance magnitude, which in the model equals the inverse of the instantaneous shear modulus, is only weakly temperature dependent; (4) the beta compliance magnitude decreases by a factor of three upon cooling in the temperature range studied. The final part of the paper briefly presents measurements of the dynamic adiabatic bulk modulus covering frequencies from 10 mHz to 10 kHz in the temperature range from 172 K to 200 K. The data are qualitatively similar to the shear modulus data by having a significant beta process. A single-order-parameter framework is suggested to rationalize these similarities.

WMAP7 constraints on oscillations in the primordial power spectrum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meerburg, P. Daniel; Wijers, Ralph A. M. J.; van der Schaar, Jan Pieter

2012-03-01

We use the 7-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP7) data to place constraints on oscillations supplementing an almost scale-invariant primordial power spectrum. Such oscillations are predicted by a variety of models, some of which amount to assuming that there is some non-trivial choice of the vacuum state at the onset of inflation. In this paper, we will explore data-driven constraints on two distinct models of initial state modifications. In both models, the frequency, phase and amplitude are degrees of freedom of the theory for which the theoretical bounds are rather weak: both the amplitude and frequency have allowed values ranging over several orders of magnitude. This requires many computationally expensive evaluations of the model cosmic microwave background (CMB) spectra and their goodness of fit, even in a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), normally the most efficient fitting method for such a problem. To search more efficiently, we first run a densely-spaced grid, with only three varying parameters: the frequency, the amplitude and the baryon density. We obtain the optimal frequency and run an MCMC at the best-fitting frequency, randomly varying all other relevant parameters. To reduce the computational time of each power spectrum computation, we adjust both comoving momentum integration and spline interpolation (in l) as a function of frequency and amplitude of the primordial power spectrum. Applying this to the WMAP7 data allows us to improve existing constraints on the presence of oscillations. We confirm earlier findings that certain frequencies can improve the fitting over a model without oscillations. For those frequencies we compute the posterior probability, allowing us to put some constraints on the primordial parameter space of both models.

The contribution of NOAA/CMDL ground-based measurements to understanding long-term stratospheric changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montzka, S. A.; Butler, J. H.; Dutton, G.; Thompson, T. M.; Hall, B.; Mondeel, D. J.; Elkins, J. W.

2005-05-01

The El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual climate variability and plays, therefore, a key role in seasonal-to-interannual prediction. Much is known by now about the main physical mechanisms that give rise to and modulate ENSO, but the values of several parameters that enter these mechanisms are an important unknown. We apply Extended Kalman Filtering (EKF) for both model state and parameter estimation in an intermediate, nonlinear, coupled ocean--atmosphere model of ENSO. The coupled model consists of an upper-ocean, reduced-gravity model of the Tropical Pacific and a steady-state atmospheric response to the sea surface temperature (SST). The model errors are assumed to be mainly in the atmospheric wind stress, and assimilated data are equatorial Pacific SSTs. Model behavior is very sensitive to two key parameters: (i) μ, the ocean-atmosphere coupling coefficient between SST and wind stress anomalies; and (ii) δs, the surface-layer coefficient. Previous work has shown that δs determines the period of the model's self-sustained oscillation, while μ measures the degree of nonlinearity. Depending on the values of these parameters, the spatio-temporal pattern of model solutions is either that of a delayed oscillator or of a westward propagating mode. Estimation of these parameters is tested first on synthetic data and allows us to recover the delayed-oscillator mode starting from model parameter values that correspond to the westward-propagating case. Assimilation of SST data from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis-2 shows that the parameters can vary on fairly short time scales and switch between values that approximate the two distinct modes of ENSO behavior. Rapid adjustments of these parameters occur, in particular, during strong ENSO events. Ways to apply EKF parameter estimation efficiently to state-of-the-art coupled ocean--atmosphere GCMs will be discussed.

Model complexity in carbon sequestration:A design of experiment and response surface uncertainty analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Li, S.

2014-12-01

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is proposed for the Nugget Sandstone in Moxa Arch, a regional saline aquifer with a large storage potential. For a proposed storage site, this study builds a suite of increasingly complex conceptual "geologic" model families, using subsets of the site characterization data: a homogeneous model family, a stationary petrophysical model family, a stationary facies model family with sub-facies petrophysical variability, and a non-stationary facies model family (with sub-facies variability) conditioned to soft data. These families, representing alternative conceptual site models built with increasing data, were simulated with the same CO2 injection test (50 years at 1/10 Mt per year), followed by 2950 years of monitoring. Using the Design of Experiment, an efficient sensitivity analysis (SA) is conducted for all families, systematically varying uncertain input parameters. Results are compared among the families to identify parameters that have 1st order impact on predicting the CO2 storage ratio (SR) at both end of injection and end of monitoring. At this site, geologic modeling factors do not significantly influence the short-term prediction of the storage ratio, although they become important over monitoring time, but only for those families where such factors are accounted for. Based on the SA, a response surface analysis is conducted to generate prediction envelopes of the storage ratio, which are compared among the families at both times. Results suggest a large uncertainty in the predicted storage ratio given the uncertainties in model parameters and modeling choices: SR varies from 5-60% (end of injection) to 18-100% (end of monitoring), although its variation among the model families is relatively minor. Moreover, long-term leakage risk is considered small at the proposed site. In the lowest-SR scenarios, all families predict gravity-stable supercritical CO2 migrating toward the bottom of the aquifer. In the highest-SR scenarios, supercritical CO2 footprints are relatively insignificant by the end of monitoring.

Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions.

PubMed

Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy

2014-10-15

Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical models of cell death in RF ablation with monopolar and bipolar probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bright, Benjamin M.; Pearce, John A.

2013-02-01

Radio frequency (RF) is used clinically to treat unresectible tumors. Finite element modeling has proven useful in treatment planning and applicator design. Typically isotherms in the middle 50s °C have been used as the parameter of assessment in these models. We compare and contrast isotherms for multiple known Arrhenius thermal damage predictors including collagen denaturation, vascular disruption, liver coagulation and cell death. Models for RITA probe geometries are included in the study. Comparison to isotherms is sensible when the activation time is held constant, but varies considerably when heating times vary. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of looking at specific processes and keeping track of the methods used to derive the Arrhenius coefficients in order to study the extremely complex cell death processes due to thermal therapies.

Influence of the "surface effect" on the segregation parameters of S in Fe(100): A multi-scale modelling and Auger Electron Spectroscopy study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, P. E.; Terblans, J. J.; Swart, H. C.

2015-12-01

The article takes a new look at the process of atomic segregation by considering the influence of surface relaxation on the segregation parameters; the activation energy (Q), segregation energy (ΔG), interaction parameter (Ω) and the pre-exponential factor (D0). Computational modelling, namely Density Functional Theory (DFT) and the Modified Darken Model (MDM) in conjunction with Auger Electron Spectroscopy (AES) was utilized to study the variation of the segregation parameters for S in the surface region of Fe(100). Results indicate a variation in each of the segregation parameters as a function of the atomic layer under consideration. Values of the segregation parameters varied more dramatically as the surface layer is approached, with atomic layer 2 having the largest deviations in comparison to the bulk values. This atomic layer had the highest Q value and formed the rate limiting step for the segregation of S towards the Fe(100) surface. It was found that the segregation process is influenced by two sets of segregation parameters, those of the surface region formed by atomic layer 2, and those in the bulk material. This article is the first to conduct a full scale investigation on the influence of surface relaxation on segregation and labelled it the "surface effect".

Chimera patterns in two-dimensional networks of coupled neurons.

PubMed

Schmidt, Alexander; Kasimatis, Theodoros; Hizanidis, Johanne; Provata, Astero; Hövel, Philipp

2017-03-01

We discuss synchronization patterns in networks of FitzHugh-Nagumo and leaky integrate-and-fire oscillators coupled in a two-dimensional toroidal geometry. A common feature between the two models is the presence of fast and slow dynamics, a typical characteristic of neurons. Earlier studies have demonstrated that both models when coupled nonlocally in one-dimensional ring networks produce chimera states for a large range of parameter values. In this study, we give evidence of a plethora of two-dimensional chimera patterns of various shapes, including spots, rings, stripes, and grids, observed in both models, as well as additional patterns found mainly in the FitzHugh-Nagumo system. Both systems exhibit multistability: For the same parameter values, different initial conditions give rise to different dynamical states. Transitions occur between various patterns when the parameters (coupling range, coupling strength, refractory period, and coupling phase) are varied. Many patterns observed in the two models follow similar rules. For example, the diameter of the rings grows linearly with the coupling radius.

Calibration of the ARID robot

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doty, Keith L

1992-01-01

The author has formulated a new, general model for specifying the kinematic properties of serial manipulators. The new model kinematic parameters do not suffer discontinuities when nominally parallel adjacent axes deviate from exact parallelism. From this new theory the author develops a first-order, lumped-parameter, calibration-model for the ARID manipulator. Next, the author develops a calibration methodology for the ARID based on visual and acoustic sensing. A sensor platform, consisting of a camera and four sonars attached to the ARID end frame, performs calibration measurements. A calibration measurement consists of processing one visual frame of an accurately placed calibration image and recording four acoustic range measurements. A minimum of two measurement protocols determine the kinematics calibration-model of the ARID for a particular region: assuming the joint displacements are accurately measured, the calibration surface is planar, and the kinematic parameters do not vary rapidly in the region. No theoretical or practical limitations appear to contra-indicate the feasibility of the calibration method developed here.

Chimera patterns in two-dimensional networks of coupled neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Alexander; Kasimatis, Theodoros; Hizanidis, Johanne; Provata, Astero; Hövel, Philipp

2017-03-01

We discuss synchronization patterns in networks of FitzHugh-Nagumo and leaky integrate-and-fire oscillators coupled in a two-dimensional toroidal geometry. A common feature between the two models is the presence of fast and slow dynamics, a typical characteristic of neurons. Earlier studies have demonstrated that both models when coupled nonlocally in one-dimensional ring networks produce chimera states for a large range of parameter values. In this study, we give evidence of a plethora of two-dimensional chimera patterns of various shapes, including spots, rings, stripes, and grids, observed in both models, as well as additional patterns found mainly in the FitzHugh-Nagumo system. Both systems exhibit multistability: For the same parameter values, different initial conditions give rise to different dynamical states. Transitions occur between various patterns when the parameters (coupling range, coupling strength, refractory period, and coupling phase) are varied. Many patterns observed in the two models follow similar rules. For example, the diameter of the rings grows linearly with the coupling radius.

LRS Bianchi Type-I Bulk Viscous Cosmological Models in f( R, T) Gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, P.; Reddy, R.

2018-03-01

We have studied the locally rotationally symmetric (LRS) Bianchi type-I cosmological model in f ( R, T) gravity (R is the Ricci scalar and T is the trace of the stress energy tensor) with bulk viscous fluid as matter content. The model is constructed for the linear form f ( R, T) = R + 2 f ( T). The exact solution of the field equations is obtained by using a time varying deceleration parameter q for a suitable choice of the function f ( T). In this case, the bulk viscous pressure \\overline{p} is found to be negative and the energy density ρ is found to be positive. The obtained model is anisotropic, accelerating, and compatible with the results of astronomical observations. Also, some important features of physical parameters of this model have been discussed.

A Monte-Carlo Analysis of Organic Volatility with Aerosol Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chloe; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2017-04-01

A newly developed box model, MATRIX-VBS, includes the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework in an aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves aerosol mass and number concentrations and aerosol mixing state. The new scheme advanced the representation of organic aerosols in models by improving the traditional and simplistic treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile and with a fixed size distribution. Further development includes adding the condensation of organics on coarse mode aerosols - dust and sea salt, thus making all organics in the system semi-volatile. To test and simplify the model, a Monte-Carlo analysis is performed to pin point which processes affect organics the most under varied chemical and meteorological conditions. Since the model's parameterizations have the ability to capture a very wide range of conditions, all possible scenarios on Earth across the whole parameter space, including temperature, humidity, location, emissions and oxidant levels, are examined. The Monte-Carlo simulations provide quantitative information on the sensitivity of the newly developed model and help us understand how organics are affecting the size distribution, mixing state and volatility distribution at varying levels of meteorological conditions and pollution levels. In addition, these simulations give information on which parameters play a critical role in the aerosol distribution and evolution in the atmosphere and which do not, that will facilitate the simplification of the box model, an important step in its implementation in the global model GISS ModelE as a module.

A wideband channel model for land mobile satellite systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jahn, Axel; Buonomo, Sergio; Sforza, Mario; Lutz, Erich

1995-01-01

A wideband channel model for Land Mobile Satellite (LMS) services is presented which characterizes the time-varying transmission channel between a satellite and a mobile user terminal. The channel model statistic parameters are the results of fitting procedures to measured data. The data used for fitting have a time resolution of 33 ns corresponding to a bandwidth of 30 MHz. Thus, the model is capable to characterize the channel behaviour for a wide range of services e.g., voice transmission, digital audio broadcasting (DAB), and spread spectrum modulation schemes. The model is presented for different environments and scenarios. The model is derived for a quasi-mobile user with hand-held terminal being in two different environments: rural and urban. The parameters needed for the description are (a) the number of echoes, (b) the distribution of the echo power, and (c) the distribution of the echo delay. It is shown that the direct path follows a Rician distribution whereas the reflected paths are Rayleigh/lognormal distributed. The parameters are given for an elevation angle of 25 deg.

Using sobol sequences for planning computer experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Statnikov, I. N.; Firsov, G. I.

2017-12-01

Discusses the use for research of problems of multicriteria synthesis of dynamic systems method of Planning LP-search (PLP-search), which not only allows on the basis of the simulation model experiments to revise the parameter space within specified ranges of their change, but also through special randomized nature of the planning of these experiments is to apply a quantitative statistical evaluation of influence of change of varied parameters and their pairwise combinations to analyze properties of the dynamic system.Start your abstract here...

ACOSS SEVEN (Active Control of Space Structures)

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-01

methodology we arrive at the stability conditions indicated in Figure 2-35. The Liapunov stability parameters, 2-40 the epsilons , are direct functions of the...variation is driven by the desire to vary the natural frequen- cies by 10%. Dynamic analyses were conducted on both perturbed models using NASTRAN . The

Individual Differences in Online Spoken Word Recognition: Implications for SLI

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMurray, Bob; Samelson, Vicki M.; Lee, Sung Hee; Tomblin, J. Bruce

2010-01-01

Thirty years of research has uncovered the broad principles that characterize spoken word processing across listeners. However, there have been few systematic investigations of individual differences. Such an investigation could help refine models of word recognition by indicating which processing parameters are likely to vary, and could also have…

Improved parameterization for the vertical flux of dust aerosols emitted by an eroding soil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The representation of the dust cycle in atmospheric circulation models hinges on an accurate parameterization of the vertical dust flux at emission. However, existing parameterizations of the vertical dust flux vary substantially in their scaling with wind friction velocity, require input parameters...

Parameter Estimation Versus Homogenization Techniques in Time-Domain Characterization of Composite Dielectrics

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-22

H. T. Banks, V. A. Bokil, D. Cioranescu, N. L. Gibson, G. Griso, and B. Miara , Homogeniza- tion of periodically varying coefficients in...Terahertz signals, Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 6 (2005), 381–416. [6] A. Bossavit, G. Griso, and B. Miara , Modeling of periodic

Carbon dioxide stripping in aquaculture -- part III: model verification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colt, John; Watten, Barnaby; Pfeiffer, Tim

2012-01-01

Based on conventional mass transfer models developed for oxygen, the use of the non-linear ASCE method, 2-point method, and one parameter linear-regression method were evaluated for carbon dioxide stripping data. For values of KLaCO2 < approximately 1.5/h, the 2-point or ASCE method are a good fit to experimental data, but the fit breaks down at higher values of KLaCO2. How to correct KLaCO2 for gas phase enrichment remains to be determined. The one-parameter linear regression model was used to vary the C*CO2 over the test, but it did not result in a better fit to the experimental data when compared to the ASCE or fixed C*CO2 assumptions.

Dataset on predictive compressive strength model for self-compacting concrete.

PubMed

Ofuyatan, O M; Edeki, S O

2018-04-01

The determination of compressive strength is affected by many variables such as the water cement (WC) ratio, the superplasticizer (SP), the aggregate combination, and the binder combination. In this dataset article, 7, 28, and 90-day compressive strength models are derived using statistical analysis. The response surface methodology is used toinvestigate the effect of the parameters: Varying percentages of ash, cement, WC, and SP on hardened properties-compressive strengthat 7,28 and 90 days. Thelevels of independent parameters are determinedbased on preliminary experiments. The experimental values for compressive strengthat 7, 28 and 90 days and modulus of elasticity underdifferent treatment conditions are also discussed and presented.These dataset can effectively be used for modelling and prediction in concrete production settings.

Regional flow simulation in fractured aquifers using stress-dependent parameters.

PubMed

Preisig, Giona; Joel Cornaton, Fabien; Perrochet, Pierre

2012-01-01

A model function relating effective stress to fracture permeability is developed from Hooke's law, implemented in the tensorial form of Darcy's law, and used to evaluate discharge rates and pressure distributions at regional scales. The model takes into account elastic and statistical fracture parameters, and is able to simulate real stress-dependent permeabilities from laboratory to field studies. This modeling approach gains in phenomenology in comparison to the classical ones because the permeability tensors may vary in both strength and principal directions according to effective stresses. Moreover this method allows evaluation of the fracture porosity changes, which are then translated into consolidation of the medium. © 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

MIXOR: a computer program for mixed-effects ordinal regression analysis.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-03-01

MIXOR provides maximum marginal likelihood estimates for mixed-effects ordinal probit, logistic, and complementary log-log regression models. These models can be used for analysis of dichotomous and ordinal outcomes from either a clustered or longitudinal design. For clustered data, the mixed-effects model assumes that data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is jointly estimated with the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for dependence resulting from clustering of the data. Similarly, for longitudinal data, the mixed-effects approach can allow for individual-varying intercepts and slopes across time, and can estimate the degree to which these time-related effects vary in the population of individuals. MIXOR uses marginal maximum likelihood estimation, utilizing a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the Cholesky factor of the random-effects variance-covariance matrix is estimated, along with the effects of model covariates. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXOR are provided.

Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation.

PubMed

Maiti, Tapabrata; Sinha, Samiran; Zhong, Ping-Shou

2016-09-01

Functional data analysis has become an important area of research due to its ability of handling high dimensional and complex data structures. However, the development is limited in the context of linear mixed effect models, and in particular, for small area estimation. The linear mixed effect models are the backbone of small area estimation. In this article, we consider area level data, and fit a varying coefficient linear mixed effect model where the varying coefficients are semi-parametrically modeled via B-splines. We propose a method of estimating the fixed effect parameters and consider prediction of random effects that can be implemented using a standard software. For measuring prediction uncertainties, we derive an analytical expression for the mean squared errors, and propose a method of estimating the mean squared errors. The procedure is illustrated via a real data example, and operating characteristics of the method are judged using finite sample simulation studies.

Accelerated cosmos in a nonextensive setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradpour, H.; Bonilla, Alexander; Abreu, Everton M. C.; Neto, Jorge Ananias

2017-12-01

Here we consider a flat FRW universe whose horizon entropy meets the Rényi entropy of nonextensive systems. In our model, the ordinary energy-momentum conservation law is not always valid. By applying the Clausius relation as well as the Cai-Kim temperature to the apparent horizon of a flat FRW universe, we obtain modified Friedmann equations. Fitting the model to the observational data on the current accelerated universe, some values for the model parameters are also addressed. Our study shows that the current accelerating phase of universe expansion may be described by a geometrical fluid, originated from the nonextensive aspects of geometry, which models a varying dark energy source interacting with the matter field in the Rastall way. Moreover, our results indicate that the probable nonextensive features of spacetime may also be used to model a varying dark energy source which does not interact with the matter field and is compatible with the current accelerated phase of the Universe.

A Quadriparametric Model to Describe the Diversity of Waves Applied to Hormonal Data.

PubMed

Abdullah, Saman; Bouchard, Thomas; Klich, Amna; Leiva, Rene; Pyper, Cecilia; Genolini, Christophe; Subtil, Fabien; Iwaz, Jean; Ecochard, René

2018-05-01

Even in normally cycling women, hormone level shapes may widely vary between cycles and between women. Over decades, finding ways to characterize and compare cycle hormone waves was difficult and most solutions, in particular polynomials or splines, do not correspond to physiologically meaningful parameters. We present an original concept to characterize most hormone waves with only two parameters. The modelling attempt considered pregnanediol-3-alpha-glucuronide (PDG) and luteinising hormone (LH) levels in 266 cycles (with ultrasound-identified ovulation day) in 99 normally fertile women aged 18 to 45. The study searched for a convenient wave description process and carried out an extended search for the best fitting density distribution. The highly flexible beta-binomial distribution offered the best fit of most hormone waves and required only two readily available and understandable wave parameters: location and scale. In bell-shaped waves (e.g., PDG curves), early peaks may be fitted with a low location parameter and a low scale parameter; plateau shapes are obtained with higher scale parameters. I-shaped, J-shaped, and U-shaped waves (sometimes the shapes of LH curves) may be fitted with high scale parameter and, respectively, low, high, and medium location parameter. These location and scale parameters will be later correlated with feminine physiological events. Our results demonstrate that, with unimodal waves, complex methods (e.g., functional mixed effects models using smoothing splines, second-order growth mixture models, or functional principal-component- based methods) may be avoided. The use, application, and, especially, result interpretation of four-parameter analyses might be advantageous within the context of feminine physiological events. Schattauer GmbH.

Kernel-Based Approximate Dynamic Programming Using Bellman Residual Elimination

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

framework is the ability to utilize stochastic system models, thereby allowing the system to make sound decisions even if there is randomness in the system ...approximate policy when a system model is unavailable. We present theoretical analysis of all BRE algorithms proving convergence to the optimal policy in...policies based on MDPs is that there may be parameters of the system model that are poorly known and/or vary with time as the system operates. System

Autoxidation of jet fuels: Implications for modeling and thermal stability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heneghan, S.P.; Chin, L.P.

1995-05-01

The study and modeling of jet fuel thermal deposition is dependent on an understanding of and ability to model the oxidation chemistry. Global modeling of jet fuel oxidation is complicated by several facts. First, liquid jet fuels are hard to heat rapidly and fuels may begin to oxidize during the heat-up phase. Non-isothermal conditions can be accounted for but the evaluation of temperature versus time is difficult. Second, the jet fuels are a mixture of many compounds that may oxidize at different rates. Third, jet fuel oxidation may be autoaccelerating through the decomposition of the oxidation products. Attempts to modelmore » the deposition of jet fuels in two different flowing systems showed the inadequacy of a simple two-parameter global Arrhenius oxidation rate constant. Discarding previous assumptions about the form of the global rate constants results in a four parameter model (which accounts for autoacceleration). This paper discusses the source of the rate constant form and the meaning of each parameter. One of these parameters is associated with the pre-exponential of the autoxidation chain length. This value is expected to vary inversely to thermal stability. We calculate the parameters for two different fuels and discuss the implication to thermal and oxidative stability of the fuels. Finally, we discuss the effect of non-Arrhenius behavior on current modeling of deposition efforts.« less

Sensitivity of solar g-modes to varying G cosmologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guenther, D. B.; Sills, Ken; Demarque, Pierre; Krauss, Lawrence M.

1995-01-01

The sensitivity of the solar g-mode oscillation spectrum to variability in the universal gravitational constant G is described. Solar models in varying G cosmologies were constructed by evolving a zero-age main-sequence stellar model to the Sun's current age, while allowing the value of G to change according to the power law G(t) proportional to t(exp -beta), where Beta approximately equals delta G/GH and H is the Hubble constant. All solar models were constrained to the observed luminosity and radius at the current age of the Sun by adjusting the helium abundance and the mixing-length parameter of the models in the usual way for standard stellar models. Low-l g-mode oscillation periods were calculated for each of the models and compared to the claimed observation of the solar g-mode oscillation spectrum by Hill & Gu (1990). If one accepts Hill & Gu's claims, then within the uncertainties of the physics of the solar model calculation, our models rule out all but (delta G/GH) less than approximately 0.05. In other words, we conclude that G could not have varied by more than 2% over the past 4.5 Gyr, the lifetime of the present-day Sun. This result lends independent support to the validity of the standard solar model.

Influence of different dose calculation algorithms on the estimate of NTCP for lung complications

PubMed Central

Bäck, Anna

2013-01-01

Due to limitations and uncertainties in dose calculation algorithms, different algorithms can predict different dose distributions and dose‐volume histograms for the same treatment. This can be a problem when estimating the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for patient‐specific dose distributions. Published NTCP model parameters are often derived for a different dose calculation algorithm than the one used to calculate the actual dose distribution. The use of algorithm‐specific NTCP model parameters can prevent errors caused by differences in dose calculation algorithms. The objective of this work was to determine how to change the NTCP model parameters for lung complications derived for a simple correction‐based pencil beam dose calculation algorithm, in order to make them valid for three other common dose calculation algorithms. NTCP was calculated with the relative seriality (RS) and Lyman‐Kutcher‐Burman (LKB) models. The four dose calculation algorithms used were the pencil beam (PB) and collapsed cone (CC) algorithms employed by Oncentra, and the pencil beam convolution (PBC) and anisotropic analytical algorithm (AAA) employed by Eclipse. Original model parameters for lung complications were taken from four published studies on different grades of pneumonitis, and new algorithm‐specific NTCP model parameters were determined. The difference between original and new model parameters was presented in relation to the reported model parameter uncertainties. Three different types of treatments were considered in the study: tangential and locoregional breast cancer treatment and lung cancer treatment. Changing the algorithm without the derivation of new model parameters caused changes in the NTCP value of up to 10 percentage points for the cases studied. Furthermore, the error introduced could be of the same magnitude as the confidence intervals of the calculated NTCP values. The new NTCP model parameters were tabulated as the algorithm was varied from PB to PBC, AAA, or CC. Moving from the PB to the PBC algorithm did not require new model parameters; however, moving from PB to AAA or CC did require a change in the NTCP model parameters, with CC requiring the largest change. It was shown that the new model parameters for a given algorithm are different for the different treatment types. PACS numbers: 87.53.‐j, 87.53.Kn, 87.55.‐x, 87.55.dh, 87.55.kd PMID:24036865

Computational solution verification and validation applied to a thermal model of a ruggedized instrumentation package

DOE PAGES

Scott, Sarah Nicole; Templeton, Jeremy Alan; Hough, Patricia Diane; ...

2014-01-01

This study details a methodology for quantification of errors and uncertainties of a finite element heat transfer model applied to a Ruggedized Instrumentation Package (RIP). The proposed verification and validation (V&V) process includes solution verification to examine errors associated with the code's solution techniques, and model validation to assess the model's predictive capability for quantities of interest. The model was subjected to mesh resolution and numerical parameters sensitivity studies to determine reasonable parameter values and to understand how they change the overall model response and performance criteria. To facilitate quantification of the uncertainty associated with the mesh, automatic meshing andmore » mesh refining/coarsening algorithms were created and implemented on the complex geometry of the RIP. Automated software to vary model inputs was also developed to determine the solution’s sensitivity to numerical and physical parameters. The model was compared with an experiment to demonstrate its accuracy and determine the importance of both modelled and unmodelled physics in quantifying the results' uncertainty. An emphasis is placed on automating the V&V process to enable uncertainty quantification within tight development schedules.« less

Understanding Lymphatic Valve Function via Computational Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Ki; Nepiyushchikh, Zhanna; Razavi, Mohammad; Dixon, Brandon; Alexeev, Alexander

2017-11-01

The lymphatic system is a crucial part to the circulatory system with many important functions, such as transport of interstitial fluid, fatty acid, and immune cells. Lymphatic vessels' contractile walls and valves allow lymph flow against adverse pressure gradients and prevent back flow. Yet, the effect of lymphatic valves' geometric and mechanical properties to pumping performance and lymphatic dysfunctions like lymphedema is not well understood. Our coupled fluid-solid computational model based on lattice Boltzmann model and lattice spring model investigates the dynamics and effectiveness of lymphatic valves in resistance minimization, backflow prevention, and viscoelastic response under different geometric and mechanical properties, suggesting the range of lymphatic valve parameters with effective pumping performance. Our model also provides more physiologically relevant relations of the valve response under varied conditions to a lumped parameter model of the lymphatic system giving an integrative insight into lymphatic system performance, including its failure due to diseases. NSF CMMI-1635133.

Ferrets as Models for Influenza Virus Transmission Studies and Pandemic Risk Assessments

PubMed Central

Barclay, Wendy; Barr, Ian; Fouchier, Ron A.M.; Matsuyama, Ryota; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Peiris, Malik; Russell, Charles J.; Subbarao, Kanta; Zhu, Huachen

2018-01-01

The ferret transmission model is extensively used to assess the pandemic potential of emerging influenza viruses, yet experimental conditions and reported results vary among laboratories. Such variation can be a critical consideration when contextualizing results from independent risk-assessment studies of novel and emerging influenza viruses. To streamline interpretation of data generated in different laboratories, we provide a consensus on experimental parameters that define risk-assessment experiments of influenza virus transmissibility, including disclosure of variables known or suspected to contribute to experimental variability in this model, and advocate adoption of more standardized practices. We also discuss current limitations of the ferret transmission model and highlight continued refinements and advances to this model ongoing in laboratories. Understanding, disclosing, and standardizing the critical parameters of ferret transmission studies will improve the comparability and reproducibility of pandemic influenza risk assessment and increase the statistical power and, perhaps, accuracy of this model. PMID:29774862

Modelling and identification for control of gas bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theisen, Lukas R. S.; Niemann, Hans H.; Santos, Ilmar F.; Galeazzi, Roberto; Blanke, Mogens

2016-03-01

Gas bearings are popular for their high speed capabilities, low friction and clean operation, but suffer from poor damping, which poses challenges for safe operation in presence of disturbances. Feedback control can achieve enhanced damping but requires low complexity models of the dominant dynamics over its entire operating range. Models from first principles are complex and sensitive to parameter uncertainty. This paper presents an experimental technique for "in situ" identification of a low complexity model of a rotor-bearing-actuator system and demonstrates identification over relevant ranges of rotational speed and gas injection pressure. This is obtained using parameter-varying linear models that are found to capture the dominant dynamics. The approach is shown to be easily applied and to suit subsequent control design. Based on the identified models, decentralised proportional control is designed and shown to obtain the required damping in theory and in a laboratory test rig.

Design of exchange-correlation functionals through the correlation factor approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pavlíková Přecechtělová, Jana, E-mail: j.precechtelova@gmail.com, E-mail: Matthias.Ernzerhof@UMontreal.ca; Institut für Chemie, Theoretische Chemie / Quantenchemie, Sekr. C7, Technische Universität Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin; Bahmann, Hilke

The correlation factor model is developed in which the spherically averaged exchange-correlation hole of Kohn-Sham theory is factorized into an exchange hole model and a correlation factor. The exchange hole model reproduces the exact exchange energy per particle. The correlation factor is constructed in such a manner that the exchange-correlation energy correctly reduces to exact exchange in the high density and rapidly varying limits. Four different correlation factor models are presented which satisfy varying sets of physical constraints. Three models are free from empirical adjustments to experimental data, while one correlation factor model draws on one empirical parameter. The correlationmore » factor models are derived in detail and the resulting exchange-correlation holes are analyzed. Furthermore, the exchange-correlation energies obtained from the correlation factor models are employed to calculate total energies, atomization energies, and barrier heights. It is shown that accurate, non-empirical functionals can be constructed building on exact exchange. Avenues for further improvements are outlined as well.« less

Adaptation of the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling: Theoretical and empirical investigations across the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michailidi, Eleni Maria; Antoniadi, Sylvia; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Bacchi, Baldassare; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

The time of concentration, tc, is a key hydrological concept and often is an essential parameter of rainfall-runoff modelling, which has been traditionally tackled as a characteristic property of the river basin. However, both theoretical proof and empirical evidence imply that tc is a hydraulic quantity that depends on flow, and thus it should be considered as variable and not as constant parameter. Using a kinematic method approach, easily implemented in GIS environment, we first illustrate that the relationship between tc and the effective rainfall produced over the catchment is well-approximated by a power-type law, the exponent of which is associated with the slope of the longest flow path of the river basin. Next, we take advantage of this relationship to adapt the concept of varying time of concentration within flood modelling, and particularly the well-known SCS-CN approach. In this context, the initial abstraction ratio is also considered varying, while the propagation of the effective rainfall is employed through a parametric unit hydrograph, the shape of which is dynamically adjusted according to the runoff produced during the flood event. The above framework is tested in a number of Mediterranean river basins in Greece, Italy and Cyprus, ensuring faithful representation of most of the observed flood events. Based on the outcomes of this extended analysis, we provide guidance for employing this methodology for flood design studies in ungauged basins.

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2018-01-01

In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing's aeroelastic response under the admissible flight states via a minimum number of estimated parameters compared to standard identification approaches. The obtained results demonstrate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed global identification framework, thus constituting a first step towards the next generation of "fly-by-feel" aerospace vehicles with state awareness capabilities.

Two statistics for evaluating parameter identifiability and error reduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, John; Hunt, Randall J.

2009-01-01

Two statistics are presented that can be used to rank input parameters utilized by a model in terms of their relative identifiability based on a given or possible future calibration dataset. Identifiability is defined here as the capability of model calibration to constrain parameters used by a model. Both statistics require that the sensitivity of each model parameter be calculated for each model output for which there are actual or presumed field measurements. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the weighted sensitivity matrix is then undertaken to quantify the relation between the parameters and observations that, in turn, allows selection of calibration solution and null spaces spanned by unit orthogonal vectors. The first statistic presented, "parameter identifiability", is quantitatively defined as the direction cosine between a parameter and its projection onto the calibration solution space. This varies between zero and one, with zero indicating complete non-identifiability and one indicating complete identifiability. The second statistic, "relative error reduction", indicates the extent to which the calibration process reduces error in estimation of a parameter from its pre-calibration level where its value must be assigned purely on the basis of prior expert knowledge. This is more sophisticated than identifiability, in that it takes greater account of the noise associated with the calibration dataset. Like identifiability, it has a maximum value of one (which can only be achieved if there is no measurement noise). Conceptually it can fall to zero; and even below zero if a calibration problem is poorly posed. An example, based on a coupled groundwater/surface-water model, is included that demonstrates the utility of the statistics. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Event-Based Variance-Constrained ${\\mathcal {H}}_{\\infty }$ Filtering for Stochastic Parameter Systems Over Sensor Networks With Successive Missing Measurements.

PubMed

Wang, Licheng; Wang, Zidong; Han, Qing-Long; Wei, Guoliang

2018-03-01

This paper is concerned with the distributed filtering problem for a class of discrete time-varying stochastic parameter systems with error variance constraints over a sensor network where the sensor outputs are subject to successive missing measurements. The phenomenon of the successive missing measurements for each sensor is modeled via a sequence of mutually independent random variables obeying the Bernoulli binary distribution law. To reduce the frequency of unnecessary data transmission and alleviate the communication burden, an event-triggered mechanism is introduced for the sensor node such that only some vitally important data is transmitted to its neighboring sensors when specific events occur. The objective of the problem addressed is to design a time-varying filter such that both the requirements and the variance constraints are guaranteed over a given finite-horizon against the random parameter matrices, successive missing measurements, and stochastic noises. By recurring to stochastic analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are established to ensure the existence of the time-varying filters whose gain matrices are then explicitly characterized in term of the solutions to a series of recursive matrix inequalities. A numerical simulation example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the developed event-triggered distributed filter design strategy.

Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm

PubMed Central

Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important implications in understanding and predicting the effects of temperature on the dynamics of populations. PMID:25558365

In-blade angle of attack measurement and comparison with models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallant, T. E.; Johnson, D. A.

2016-09-01

The torque generated by a wind turbine blade is dependent on several parameters, one of which is the angle of attack. Several models for predicting the angle of attack in yawed conditions have been proposed in the literature, but there is a lack of experimental data to use for direct validation. To address this problem, experiments were conducted at the University of Waterloo Wind Generation Research Facility using a 3.4 m diameter test turbine. A five-hole pressure probe was installed in a modular 3D printed blade and was used to measure the angle of attack, a, as a function of several parameters. Measurements were conducted at radial positions of r/R = 0.55 and 0.72 at tip speed ratios of λ = 5.0, 3.6, and 3.1. The yaw offset of the turbine was varied from -15° to +15°. Experimental results were compared directly to angle of attack values calculated using a model proposed by Morote in 2015. Modeled values were found to be in close agreement with the experimental results. The angle of attack was shown to vary cyclically in the yawed case while remaining mostly constant when aligned with the flow, as expected. The quality of results indicates the potential of the developed instrument for wind turbine measurements.

Modeling Mass and Thermal Transport in Thin Porous Media of PEM Fuel Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, Vinaykumar

Water transport in the Porous Transport Layer (PTL) plays an important role in the efficient operation of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC). Excessive water content as well as dry operating conditions are unfavorable for efficient and reliable operation of the fuel cell. The effect of thermal conductivity and porosity on water management are investigated by simulating two-phase flow in the PTL of the fuel cell using a network model. In the model, the PTL consists of a pore-phase and a solid-phase. Different models of the PTLs are generated using independent Weibull distributions for the pore-phase and the solid-phase. The specific arrangement of the pores and solid elements is varied to obtain different PTL realizations for the same Weibull parameters. The properties of PTL are varied by changing the porosity and thermal conductivity. The parameters affecting operating conditions include the temperature, relative humidity in the flow channel and voltage and current density. In addition, a novel high-speed capable Surface Plasmon Resonance (SPR) microscope was built based on Kretschmann's configuration utilizing a collimated Kohler illumination. The SPR allows thin film characterization in a thickness of approximately 0-200nm by measuring the changes in the refractive index. Various independent experiments were run to measure film thickness during droplet coalescence during condensation.

A modern Monte Carlo investigation of the TG-43 dosimetry parameters for an {sup 125}I seed already having AAPM consensus data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aryal, Prakash; Molloy, Janelle A.; Rivard, Mark J., E-mail: mark.j.rivard@gmail.com

2014-02-15

Purpose: To investigate potential causes for differences in TG-43 brachytherapy dosimetry parameters in the existent literature for the model IAI-125A{sup 125}I seed and to propose new standard dosimetry parameters. Methods: The MCNP5 code was used for Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Sensitivity of dose distributions, and subsequently TG-43 dosimetry parameters, was explored to reproduce historical methods upon which American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) consensus data are based. Twelve simulation conditions varying{sup 125}I coating thickness, coating mass density, photon interaction cross-section library, and photon emission spectrum were examined. Results: Varying{sup 125}I coating thickness, coating mass density, photon cross-section library, andmore » photon emission spectrum for the model IAI-125A seed changed the dose-rate constant by up to 0.9%, about 1%, about 3%, and 3%, respectively, in comparison to the proposed standard value of 0.922 cGy h{sup −1} U{sup −1}. The dose-rate constant values by Solberg et al. [“Dosimetric parameters of three new solid core {sup 125}I brachytherapy sources,” J. Appl. Clin. Med. Phys. 3, 119–134 (2002)], Meigooni et al. [“Experimental and theoretical determination of dosimetric characteristics of IsoAid ADVANTAGE™ {sup 125}I brachytherapy source,” Med. Phys. 29, 2152–2158 (2002)], and Taylor and Rogers [“An EGSnrc Monte Carlo-calculated database of TG-43 parameters,” Med. Phys. 35, 4228–4241 (2008)] for the model IAI-125A seed and Kennedy et al. [“Experimental and Monte Carlo determination of the TG-43 dosimetric parameters for the model 9011 THINSeed™ brachytherapy source,” Med. Phys. 37, 1681–1688 (2010)] for the model 6711 seed were +4.3% (0.962 cGy h{sup −1} U{sup −1}), +6.2% (0.98 cGy h{sup −1} U{sup −1}), +0.3% (0.925 cGy h{sup −1} U{sup −1}), and −0.2% (0.921 cGy h{sup −1} U{sup −1}), respectively, in comparison to the proposed standard value. Differences in the radial dose functions between the current study and both Solberg et al. and Meigooni et al. were <10% for r ≤ 5 cm, and increased for r > 5 cm with a maximum difference of 29% at r = 9 cm. In comparison to Taylor and Rogers, these differences were lower (maximum of 2% at r = 9 cm). For the similarly designed model 6711 {sup 125}I seed, differences did not exceed 0.5% for 0.5 ≤ r ≤ 10 cm. Radial dose function values varied by 1% as coating thickness and coating density were changed. Varying the cross-section library and source spectrum altered the radial dose function by 25% and 12%, respectively, but these differences occurred at r = 10 cm where the dose rates were very low. The 2D anisotropy function results were most similar to those of Solberg et al. and most different to those of Meigooni et al. The observed order of simulation condition variables from most to least important for influencing the 2D anisotropy function was spectrum, coating thickness, coating density, and cross-section library. Conclusions: Several MC radiation transport codes are available for calculation of the TG-43 dosimetry parameters for brachytherapy seeds. The physics models in these codes and their related cross-section libraries have been updated and improved since publication of the 2007 AAPM TG-43U1S1 report. Results using modern data indicated statistically significant differences in these dosimetry parameters in comparison to data recommended in the TG-43U1S1 report. Therefore, it seems that professional societies such as the AAPM should consider reevaluating the consensus data for this and others seeds and establishing a process of regular evaluations in which consensus data are based upon methods that remain state-of-the-art.« less

Bridging the gap between theoretical ecology and real ecosystems: modeling invertebrate community composition in streams.

PubMed

Schuwirth, Nele; Reichert, Peter

2013-02-01

For the first time, we combine concepts of theoretical food web modeling, the metabolic theory of ecology, and ecological stoichiometry with the use of functional trait databases to predict the coexistence of invertebrate taxa in streams. We developed a mechanistic model that describes growth, death, and respiration of different taxa dependent on various environmental influence factors to estimate survival or extinction. Parameter and input uncertainty is propagated to model results. Such a model is needed to test our current quantitative understanding of ecosystem structure and function and to predict effects of anthropogenic impacts and restoration efforts. The model was tested using macroinvertebrate monitoring data from a catchment of the Swiss Plateau. Even without fitting model parameters, the model is able to represent key patterns of the coexistence structure of invertebrates at sites varying in external conditions (litter input, shading, water quality). This confirms the suitability of the model concept. More comprehensive testing and resulting model adaptations will further increase the predictive accuracy of the model.

Calibrating binary lumped parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgenstern, Uwe; Stewart, Mike

2017-04-01

Groundwater at its discharge point is a mixture of water from short and long flowlines, and therefore has a distribution of ages rather than a single age. Various transfer functions describe the distribution of ages within the water sample. Lumped parameter models (LPMs), which are mathematical models of water transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configuration can account for such mixing of groundwater of different age, usually representing the age distribution with two parameters, the mean residence time, and the mixing parameter. Simple lumped parameter models can often match well the measured time varying age tracer concentrations, and therefore are a good representation of the groundwater mixing at these sites. Usually a few tracer data (time series and/or multi-tracer) can constrain both parameters. With the building of larger data sets of age tracer data throughout New Zealand, including tritium, SF6, CFCs, and recently Halon-1301, and time series of these tracers, we realised that for a number of wells the groundwater ages using a simple lumped parameter model were inconsistent between the different tracer methods. Contamination or degradation of individual tracers is unlikely because the different tracers show consistent trends over years and decades. This points toward a more complex mixing of groundwaters with different ages for such wells than represented by the simple lumped parameter models. Binary (or compound) mixing models are able to represent a more complex mixing, with mixing of water of two different age distributions. The problem related to these models is that they usually have 5 parameters which makes them data-hungry and therefore difficult to constrain all parameters. Two or more age tracers with different input functions, with multiple measurements over time, can provide the required information to constrain the parameters of the binary mixing model. We obtained excellent results using tritium time series encompassing the passage of the bomb-tritium through the aquifer, and SF6 with its steep gradient currently in the input. We will show age tracer data from drinking water wells that enabled identification of young water ingression into wells, which poses the risk of bacteriological contamination from the surface into the drinking water.

Sensitivity of land surface modeling to parameters: An uncertainty quantification method applied to the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricciuto, D. M.; Mei, R.; Mao, J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.

2015-12-01

Uncertainties in land parameters could have important impacts on simulated water and energy fluxes and land surface states, which will consequently affect atmospheric and biogeochemical processes. Therefore, quantification of such parameter uncertainties using a land surface model is the first step towards better understanding of predictive uncertainty in Earth system models. In this study, we applied a random-sampling, high-dimensional model representation (RS-HDMR) method to analyze the sensitivity of simulated photosynthesis, surface energy fluxes and surface hydrological components to selected land parameters in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Because of the large computational expense of conducting ensembles of global gridded model simulations, we used the results of a previous cluster analysis to select one thousand representative land grid cells for simulation. Plant functional type (PFT)-specific uniform prior ranges for land parameters were determined using expert opinion and literature survey, and samples were generated with a quasi-Monte Carlo approach-Sobol sequence. Preliminary analysis of 1024 simulations suggested that four PFT-dependent parameters (including slope of the conductance-photosynthesis relationship, specific leaf area at canopy top, leaf C:N ratio and fraction of leaf N in RuBisco) are the dominant sensitive parameters for photosynthesis, surface energy and water fluxes across most PFTs, but with varying importance rankings. On the other hand, for surface ans sub-surface runoff, PFT-independent parameters, such as the depth-dependent decay factors for runoff, play more important roles than the previous four PFT-dependent parameters. Further analysis by conditioning the results on different seasons and years are being conducted to provide guidance on how climate variability and change might affect such sensitivity. This is the first step toward coupled simulations including biogeochemical processes, atmospheric processes or both to determine the full range of sensitivity of Earth system modeling to land-surface parameters. This can facilitate sampling strategies in measurement campaigns targeted at reduction of climate modeling uncertainties and can also provide guidance on land parameter calibration for simulation optimization.

Clinical implications in the use of the PBC algorithm versus the AAA by comparison of different NTCP models/parameters

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose Retrospective analysis of 3D clinical treatment plans to investigate qualitative, possible, clinical consequences of the use of PBC versus AAA. Methods The 3D dose distributions of 80 treatment plans at four different tumour sites, produced using PBC algorithm, were recalculated using AAA and the same number of monitor units provided by PBC and clinically delivered to each patient; the consequences of the difference on the dose-effect relations for normal tissue injury were studied by comparing different NTCP model/parameters extracted from a review of published studies. In this study the AAA dose calculation is considered as benchmark data. The paired Student t-test was used for statistical comparison of all results obtained from the use of the two algorithms. Results In the prostate plans, the AAA predicted lower NTCP value (NTCPAAA) for the risk of late rectal bleeding for each of the seven combinations of NTCP parameters, the maximum mean decrease was 2.2%. In the head-and-neck treatments, each combination of parameters used for the risk of xerostemia from irradiation of the parotid glands involved lower NTCPAAA, that varied from 12.8% (sd=3.0%) to 57.5% (sd=4.0%), while when the PBC algorithm was used the NTCPPBC’s ranging was from 15.2% (sd=2.7%) to 63.8% (sd=3.8%), according the combination of parameters used; the differences were statistically significant. Also NTCPAAA regarding the risk of radiation pneumonitis in the lung treatments was found to be lower than NTCPPBC for each of the eight sets of NTCP parameters; the maximum mean decrease was 4.5%. A mean increase of 4.3% was found when the NTCPAAA was calculated by the parameters evaluated from dose distribution calculated by a convolution-superposition (CS) algorithm. A markedly different pattern was observed for the risk relating to the development of pneumonitis following breast treatments: the AAA predicted higher NTCP value. The mean NTCPAAA varied from 0.2% (sd = 0.1%) to 2.1% (sd = 0.3%), while the mean NTCPPBC varied from 0.1% (sd = 0.0%) to 1.8% (sd = 0.2%) depending on the chosen parameters set. Conclusions When the original PBC treatment plans were recalculated using AAA with the same number of monitor units provided by PBC, the NTCPAAA was lower than the NTCPPBC, except for the breast treatments. The NTCP is strongly affected by the wide-ranging values of radiobiological parameters. PMID:23826854

Clinical implications in the use of the PBC algorithm versus the AAA by comparison of different NTCP models/parameters.

PubMed

Bufacchi, Antonella; Nardiello, Barbara; Capparella, Roberto; Begnozzi, Luisa

2013-07-04

Retrospective analysis of 3D clinical treatment plans to investigate qualitative, possible, clinical consequences of the use of PBC versus AAA. The 3D dose distributions of 80 treatment plans at four different tumour sites, produced using PBC algorithm, were recalculated using AAA and the same number of monitor units provided by PBC and clinically delivered to each patient; the consequences of the difference on the dose-effect relations for normal tissue injury were studied by comparing different NTCP model/parameters extracted from a review of published studies. In this study the AAA dose calculation is considered as benchmark data. The paired Student t-test was used for statistical comparison of all results obtained from the use of the two algorithms. In the prostate plans, the AAA predicted lower NTCP value (NTCPAAA) for the risk of late rectal bleeding for each of the seven combinations of NTCP parameters, the maximum mean decrease was 2.2%. In the head-and-neck treatments, each combination of parameters used for the risk of xerostemia from irradiation of the parotid glands involved lower NTCPAAA, that varied from 12.8% (sd=3.0%) to 57.5% (sd=4.0%), while when the PBC algorithm was used the NTCPPBC's ranging was from 15.2% (sd=2.7%) to 63.8% (sd=3.8%), according the combination of parameters used; the differences were statistically significant. Also NTCPAAA regarding the risk of radiation pneumonitis in the lung treatments was found to be lower than NTCPPBC for each of the eight sets of NTCP parameters; the maximum mean decrease was 4.5%. A mean increase of 4.3% was found when the NTCPAAA was calculated by the parameters evaluated from dose distribution calculated by a convolution-superposition (CS) algorithm. A markedly different pattern was observed for the risk relating to the development of pneumonitis following breast treatments: the AAA predicted higher NTCP value. The mean NTCPAAA varied from 0.2% (sd = 0.1%) to 2.1% (sd = 0.3%), while the mean NTCPPBC varied from 0.1% (sd = 0.0%) to 1.8% (sd = 0.2%) depending on the chosen parameters set. When the original PBC treatment plans were recalculated using AAA with the same number of monitor units provided by PBC, the NTCPAAA was lower than the NTCPPBC, except for the breast treatments. The NTCP is strongly affected by the wide-ranging values of radiobiological parameters.

Parameter Stability of the Functional–Structural Plant Model GREENLAB as Affected by Variation within Populations, among Seasons and among Growth Stages

PubMed Central

Ma, Yuntao; Li, Baoguo; Zhan, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Luquet, Delphine; de Reffye, Philippe; Dingkuhn, Michael

2007-01-01

Background and Aims It is increasingly accepted that crop models, if they are to simulate genotype-specific behaviour accurately, should simulate the morphogenetic process generating plant architecture. A functional–structural plant model, GREENLAB, was previously presented and validated for maize. The model is based on a recursive mathematical process, with parameters whose values cannot be measured directly and need to be optimized statistically. This study aims at evaluating the stability of GREENLAB parameters in response to three types of phenotype variability: (1) among individuals from a common population; (2) among populations subjected to different environments (seasons); and (3) among different development stages of the same plants. Methods Five field experiments were conducted in the course of 4 years on irrigated fields near Beijing, China. Detailed observations were conducted throughout the seasons on the dimensions and fresh biomass of all above-ground plant organs for each metamer. Growth stage-specific target files were assembled from the data for GREENLAB parameter optimization. Optimization was conducted for specific developmental stages or the entire growth cycle, for individual plants (replicates), and for different seasons. Parameter stability was evaluated by comparing their CV with that of phenotype observation for the different sources of variability. A reduced data set was developed for easier model parameterization using one season, and validated for the four other seasons. Key Results and Conclusions The analysis of parameter stability among plants sharing the same environment and among populations grown in different environments indicated that the model explains some of the inter-seasonal variability of phenotype (parameters varied less than the phenotype itself), but not inter-plant variability (parameter and phenotype variability were similar). Parameter variability among developmental stages was small, indicating that parameter values were largely development-stage independent. The authors suggest that the high level of parameter stability observed in GREENLAB can be used to conduct comparisons among genotypes and, ultimately, genetic analyses. PMID:17158141

A computational model for biosonar echoes from foliage

PubMed Central

Gupta, Anupam Kumar; Lu, Ruijin; Zhu, Hongxiao

2017-01-01

Since many bat species thrive in densely vegetated habitats, echoes from foliage are likely to be of prime importance to the animals’ sensory ecology, be it as clutter that masks prey echoes or as sources of information about the environment. To better understand the characteristics of foliage echoes, a new model for the process that generates these signals has been developed. This model takes leaf size and orientation into account by representing the leaves as circular disks of varying diameter. The two added leaf parameters are of potential importance to the sensory ecology of bats, e.g., with respect to landmark recognition and flight guidance along vegetation contours. The full model is specified by a total of three parameters: leaf density, average leaf size, and average leaf orientation. It assumes that all leaf parameters are independently and identically distributed. Leaf positions were drawn from a uniform probability density function, sizes and orientations each from a Gaussian probability function. The model was found to reproduce the first-order amplitude statistics of measured example echoes and showed time-variant echo properties that depended on foliage parameters. Parameter estimation experiments using lasso regression have demonstrated that a single foliage parameter can be estimated with high accuracy if the other two parameters are known a priori. If only one parameter is known a priori, the other two can still be estimated, but with a reduced accuracy. Lasso regression did not support simultaneous estimation of all three parameters. Nevertheless, these results demonstrate that foliage echoes contain accessible information on foliage type and orientation that could play a role in supporting sensory tasks such as landmark identification and contour following in echolocating bats. PMID:28817631

A computational model for biosonar echoes from foliage.

PubMed

Ming, Chen; Gupta, Anupam Kumar; Lu, Ruijin; Zhu, Hongxiao; Müller, Rolf

2017-01-01

Since many bat species thrive in densely vegetated habitats, echoes from foliage are likely to be of prime importance to the animals' sensory ecology, be it as clutter that masks prey echoes or as sources of information about the environment. To better understand the characteristics of foliage echoes, a new model for the process that generates these signals has been developed. This model takes leaf size and orientation into account by representing the leaves as circular disks of varying diameter. The two added leaf parameters are of potential importance to the sensory ecology of bats, e.g., with respect to landmark recognition and flight guidance along vegetation contours. The full model is specified by a total of three parameters: leaf density, average leaf size, and average leaf orientation. It assumes that all leaf parameters are independently and identically distributed. Leaf positions were drawn from a uniform probability density function, sizes and orientations each from a Gaussian probability function. The model was found to reproduce the first-order amplitude statistics of measured example echoes and showed time-variant echo properties that depended on foliage parameters. Parameter estimation experiments using lasso regression have demonstrated that a single foliage parameter can be estimated with high accuracy if the other two parameters are known a priori. If only one parameter is known a priori, the other two can still be estimated, but with a reduced accuracy. Lasso regression did not support simultaneous estimation of all three parameters. Nevertheless, these results demonstrate that foliage echoes contain accessible information on foliage type and orientation that could play a role in supporting sensory tasks such as landmark identification and contour following in echolocating bats.

Dependence of Intramyocardial Pressure and Coronary Flow on Ventricular Loading and Contractility: A Model Study

PubMed Central

Borsje, Petra; Arts, Theo; van De Vosse, Frans N.

2006-01-01

The phasic coronary arterial inflow during the normal cardiac cycle has been explained with simple (waterfall, intramyocardial pump) models, emphasizing the role of ventricular pressure. To explain changes in isovolumic and low afterload beats, these models were extended with the effect of three-dimensional wall stress, nonlinear characteristics of the coronary bed, and extravascular fluid exchange. With the associated increase in the number of model parameters, a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis has become difficult. Therefore we investigated the primary relations between ventricular pressure and volume, wall stress, intramyocardial pressure and coronary blood flow, with a mathematical model with a limited number of parameters. The model replicates several experimental observations: the phasic character of coronary inflow is virtually independent of maximum ventricular pressure, the amplitude of the coronary flow signal varies about proportionally with cardiac contractility, and intramyocardial pressure in the ventricular wall may exceed ventricular pressure. A parameter sensitivity analysis shows that the normalized amplitude of coronary inflow is mainly determined by contractility, reflected in ventricular pressure and, at low ventricular volumes, radial wall stress. Normalized flow amplitude is less sensitive to myocardial coronary compliance and resistance, and to the relation between active fiber stress, time, and sarcomere shortening velocity. PMID:17048105

Modeling spray/puddle dissolution processes for deep-ultraviolet acid-hardened resists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, John M.; Das, Siddhartha; Qian, Qi-De; Gaw, Henry T.

1993-10-01

A study of the dissolution behavior of acid-hardened resists (AHR) was undertaken for spray and spray/puddle development processes. The Site Services DSM-100 end-point detection system is used to measure both spray and puddle dissolution data for a commercially available deep-ultraviolet AHR resist, Shipley SNR-248. The DSM allows in situ measurement of dissolution rate on the wafer chuck and hence allows parameter extraction for modeling spray and puddle processes. The dissolution data for spray and puddle processes was collected across a range of exposure dose and postexposure bake temperature. The development recipe was varied to decouple the contribution of the spray and puddle modes to the overall dissolution characteristics. The mechanisms involved in spray versus puddle dissolution and the impact of spray versus puddle dissolution on process performance metrics has been investigated. We used the effective-dose-modeling approach and the measurement capability of the DSM-100 and developed a lumped parameter model for acid-hardened resists that incorporates the effects of exposure, postexposure bake temperature and time, and development condition. The PARMEX photoresist-modeling program is used to determine parameters for the spray and for the puddle process. The lumped parameter AHR model developed showed good agreement with experimental data.

Earthquake source parameters determined by the SAFOD Pilot Hole seismic array

USGS Publications Warehouse

Imanishi, K.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Prejean, S.G.

2004-01-01

We estimate the source parameters of #3 microearthquakes by jointly analyzing seismograms recorded by the 32-level, 3-component seismic array installed in the SAFOD Pilot Hole. We applied an inversion procedure to estimate spectral parameters for the omega-square model (spectral level and corner frequency) and Q to displacement amplitude spectra. Because we expect spectral parameters and Q to vary slowly with depth in the well, we impose a smoothness constraint on those parameters as a function of depth using a linear first-differenfee operator. This method correctly resolves corner frequency and Q, which leads to a more accurate estimation of source parameters than can be obtained from single sensors. The stress drop of one example of the SAFOD target repeating earthquake falls in the range of typical tectonic earthquakes. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Global exponential stability for switched memristive neural networks with time-varying delays.

PubMed

Xin, Youming; Li, Yuxia; Cheng, Zunshui; Huang, Xia

2016-08-01

This paper considers the problem of exponential stability for switched memristive neural networks (MNNs) with time-varying delays. Different from most of the existing papers, we model a memristor as a continuous system, and view switched MNNs as switched neural networks with uncertain time-varying parameters. Based on average dwell time technique, mode-dependent average dwell time technique and multiple Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional approach, two conditions are derived to design the switching signal and guarantee the exponential stability of the considered neural networks, which are delay-dependent and formulated by linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Finally, the effectiveness of the theoretical results is demonstrated by two numerical examples. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An adaptive model for vanadium redox flow battery and its application for online peak power estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhongbao; Meng, Shujuan; Tseng, King Jet; Lim, Tuti Mariana; Soong, Boon Hee; Skyllas-Kazacos, Maria

2017-03-01

An accurate battery model is the prerequisite for reliable state estimate of vanadium redox battery (VRB). As the battery model parameters are time varying with operating condition variation and battery aging, the common methods where model parameters are empirical or prescribed offline lacks accuracy and robustness. To address this issue, this paper proposes to use an online adaptive battery model to reproduce the VRB dynamics accurately. The model parameters are online identified with both the recursive least squares (RLS) and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). Performance comparison shows that the RLS is superior with respect to the modeling accuracy, convergence property, and computational complexity. Based on the online identified battery model, an adaptive peak power estimator which incorporates the constraints of voltage limit, SOC limit and design limit of current is proposed to fully exploit the potential of the VRB. Experiments are conducted on a lab-scale VRB system and the proposed peak power estimator is verified with a specifically designed "two-step verification" method. It is shown that different constraints dominate the allowable peak power at different stages of cycling. The influence of prediction time horizon selection on the peak power is also analyzed.

A stochastic differential equation model of diurnal cortisol patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, E. N.; Meehan, P. M.; Dempster, A. P.

2001-01-01

Circadian modulation of episodic bursts is recognized as the normal physiological pattern of diurnal variation in plasma cortisol levels. The primary physiological factors underlying these diurnal patterns are the ultradian timing of secretory events, circadian modulation of the amplitude of secretory events, infusion of the hormone from the adrenal gland into the plasma, and clearance of the hormone from the plasma by the liver. Each measured plasma cortisol level has an error arising from the cortisol immunoassay. We demonstrate that all of these three physiological principles can be succinctly summarized in a single stochastic differential equation plus measurement error model and show that physiologically consistent ranges of the model parameters can be determined from published reports. We summarize the model parameters in terms of the multivariate Gaussian probability density and establish the plausibility of the model with a series of simulation studies. Our framework makes possible a sensitivity analysis in which all model parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. The model offers an approach for simultaneously representing cortisol's ultradian, circadian, and kinetic properties. Our modeling paradigm provides a framework for simulation studies and data analysis that should be readily adaptable to the analysis of other endocrine hormone systems.

Recommended Parameter Values for GENII Modeling of Radionuclides in Routine Air and Water Releases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snyder, Sandra F.; Arimescu, Carmen; Napier, Bruce A.

The GENII v2 code is used to estimate dose to individuals or populations from the release of radioactive materials into air or water. Numerous parameter values are required for input into this code. User-defined parameters cover the spectrum from chemical data, meteorological data, agricultural data, and behavioral data. This document is a summary of parameter values that reflect conditions in the United States. Reasonable regional and age-dependent data is summarized. Data availability and quality varies. The set of parameters described address scenarios for chronic air emissions or chronic releases to public waterways. Considerations for the special tritium and carbon-14 modelsmore » are briefly addressed. GENIIv2.10.0 is the current software version that this document supports.« less

Physical retrieval of precipitation water contents from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) data. Part 2: Retrieval method and applications (report version)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olson, William S.

1990-01-01

A physical retrieval method for estimating precipitating water distributions and other geophysical parameters based upon measurements from the DMSP-F8 SSM/I is developed. Three unique features of the retrieval method are (1) sensor antenna patterns are explicitly included to accommodate varying channel resolution; (2) precipitation-brightness temperature relationships are quantified using the cloud ensemble/radiative parameterization; and (3) spatial constraints are imposed for certain background parameters, such as humidity, which vary more slowly in the horizontal than the cloud and precipitation water contents. The general framework of the method will facilitate the incorporation of measurements from the SSMJT, SSM/T-2 and geostationary infrared measurements, as well as information from conventional sources (e.g., radiosondes) or numerical forecast model fields.

Numerical simulations of flares on M dwarf stars. I - Hydrodynamics and coronal X-ray emission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheng, Chung-Chieh; Pallavicini, Roberto

1991-01-01

Flare-loop models are utilized to simulate the time evolution and physical characteristics of stellar X-ray flares by varying the values of flare-energy input and loop parameters. The hydrodynamic evolution is studied in terms of changes in the parameters of the mass, energy, and momentum equations within an area bounded by the chromosphere and the corona. The zone supports a magnetically confined loop for which processes are described including the expansion of heated coronal gas, chromospheric evaporation, and plasma compression at loop footpoints. The intensities, time profiles, and average coronal temperatures of X-ray flares are derived from the simulations and compared to observational evidence. Because the amount of evaporated material does not vary linearly with flare-energy input, large loops are required to produce the energy measured from stellar flares.

Simulating the behavior of volatiles belonging to the C-O-H-S system in silicate melts under magmatic conditions with the software D-Compress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burgisser, Alain; Alletti, Marina; Scaillet, Bruno

2015-06-01

Modeling magmatic degassing, or how the volatile distribution between gas and melt changes at pressure varies, is a complex task that involves a large number of thermodynamical relationships and that requires dedicated software. This article presents the software D-Compress, which computes the gas and melt volatile composition of five element sets in magmatic systems (O-H, S-O-H, C-S-O-H, C-S-O-H-Fe, and C-O-H). It has been calibrated so as to simulate the volatiles coexisting with three common types of silicate melts (basalt, phonolite, and rhyolite). Operational temperatures depend on melt composition and range from 790 to 1400 °C. A specificity of D-Compress is the calculation of volatile composition as pressure varies along a (de)compression path between atmospheric and 3000 bars. This software was prepared so as to maximize versatility by proposing different sets of input parameters. In particular, whenever new solubility laws on specific melt compositions are available, the model parameters can be easily tuned to run the code on that composition. Parameter gaps were minimized by including sets of chemical species for which calibration data were available over a wide range of pressure, temperature, and melt composition. A brief description of the model rationale is followed by the presentation of the software capabilities. Examples of use are then presented with outputs comparisons between D-Compress and other currently available thermodynamical models. The compiled software and the source code are available as electronic supplementary materials.