Predicting Failure Progression and Failure Loads in Composite Open-Hole Tension Coupons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arunkumar, Satyanarayana; Przekop, Adam

2010-01-01

Failure types and failure loads in carbon-epoxy [45n/90n/-45n/0n]ms laminate coupons with central circular holes subjected to tensile load are simulated using progressive failure analysis (PFA) methodology. The progressive failure methodology is implemented using VUMAT subroutine within the ABAQUS(TradeMark)/Explicit nonlinear finite element code. The degradation model adopted in the present PFA methodology uses an instantaneous complete stress reduction (COSTR) approach to simulate damage at a material point when failure occurs. In-plane modeling parameters such as element size and shape are held constant in the finite element models, irrespective of laminate thickness and hole size, to predict failure loads and failure progression. Comparison to published test data indicates that this methodology accurately simulates brittle, pull-out and delamination failure types. The sensitivity of the failure progression and the failure load to analytical loading rates and solvers precision is demonstrated.

Hot-air forming of Al-Mg-Cr alloy and prediction of failure based on Zener-Holloman parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, W. J.; Kim, W. Y.; Kim, H. K.

2010-12-01

The microstructure of an Al-Mg-Cr alloy tube fabricated through indirect extrusion at 673 K showed elongated grains with a mean size of ˜26 μm. The strain rate-stress relationship at high temperatures (753 K to 793 K) revealed that dislocation climb creep was the rate-controlling deformation mechanism. The hot-air forming process was successful at a pressure of 70 bar. The Zener-Hollomon parameter based failure criterion was 3602+, and was used to explain the failure behavior of a deforming body. The forming and fracture behavior of the Al-Mg-Cr alloy tube was analyzed with the aid of finite element (FE) simulation, into which the failure criterion was incorporated. Comparison of the simulation and the experimental results indicated that the proposed fracture criterion was useful in predicting the fracture behavior of aluminum tube deforming by means of gas pressure.

Predicting Time Series Outputs and Time-to-Failure for an Aircraft Controller Using Bayesian Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Yuning

2015-01-01

Safety of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) is paramount, but the large number of dynamically changing controller parameters makes it hard to determine if the system is currently stable, and the time before loss of control if not. We propose a hierarchical statistical model using Treed Gaussian Processes to predict (i) whether a flight will be stable (success) or become unstable (failure), (ii) the time-to-failure if unstable, and (iii) time series outputs for flight variables. We first classify the current flight input into success or failure types, and then use separate models for each class to predict the time-to-failure and time series outputs. As different inputs may cause failures at different times, we have to model variable length output curves. We use a basis representation for curves and learn the mappings from input to basis coefficients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our prediction methods on a NASA neuro-adaptive flight control system.

A maximum entropy fracture model for low and high strain-rate fracture in TinSilverCopper alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Dennis K.

SnAgCu solder alloys exhibit significant rate-dependent constitutive behavior. Solder joints made of these alloys exhibit failure modes that are also rate-dependent. Solder joints are an integral part of microelectronic packages and are subjected to a wide variety of loading conditions which range from thermo-mechanical fatigue to impact loading. Consequently, there is a need for non-empirical rate-dependent failure theory that is able to accurately predict fracture in these solder joints. In the present thesis, various failure models are first reviewed. But, these models are typically empirical or are not valid for solder joints due to limiting assumptions such as elastic behavior. Here, the development and validation of a maximum entropy fracture model (MEFM) valid for low strain-rate fracture in SnAgCu solders is presented. To this end, work on characterizing SnAgCu solder behavior at low strain-rates using a specially designed tester to estimate parameters for constitutive models is presented. Next, the maximum entropy fracture model is reviewed. This failure model uses a single damage accumulation parameter and relates the risk of fracture to accumulated inelastic dissipation. A methodology is presented to extract this model parameter through a custom-built microscale mechanical tester for Sn3.8Ag0.7Cu solder. This single parameter is used to numerically simulate fracture in two solder joints with entirely different geometries. The simulations are compared to experimentally observed fracture in these same packages. Following the simulations of fracture at low strain rate, the constitutive behavior of solder alloys across nine decades of strain rates through MTS compression tests and split-Hopkinson bar are presented. Preliminary work on using orthogonal machining as novel technique of material characterization at high strain rates is also presented. The resultant data from the MTS compression and split-Hopkinson bar tester is used to demonstrate the localization of stress to the interface of solder joints at high strain rates. The MEFM is further extended to predict failure in brittle materials. Such an extension allows for fracture prediction within intermetallic compounds (IMCs) in solder joints. It has been experimentally observed that the failure mode shifts from bulk solder to the IMC layer with increasing loading rates. The extension of the MEFM would allow for prediction of the fracture mode within the solder joint under different loading conditions. A fracture model capable of predicting failure modes at higher strain rates is necessary, as mobile electronics are becoming ubiquitous. Mobile devices are prone to being dropped which can induce loading rates within solder joints that are much larger than experienced under thermo-mechanical fatigue. A range of possible damage accumulation parameters for Cu6Sn 5 is determined for the MEFM. A value within the aforementioned range is used to demonstrate the increasing likelihood of IMC fracture in solder joints with larger loading rates. The thesis is concluded with remarks about ongoing work that include determining a more accurate damage accumulation parameter for Cu6Sn 5 IMC, and on using machining as a technique for extracting failure parameters for the MEFM.

A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades.

PubMed

Yu, Zheng-Yong; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Liu, Qiang; Liu, Yunhan

2017-05-08

As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB) and Fatemi-Socie (FS) models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models.

A New Energy-Critical Plane Damage Parameter for Multiaxial Fatigue Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

PubMed Central

Yu, Zheng-Yong; Zhu, Shun-Peng; Liu, Qiang; Liu, Yunhan

2017-01-01

As one of fracture critical components of an aircraft engine, accurate life prediction of a turbine blade to disk attachment is significant for ensuring the engine structural integrity and reliability. Fatigue failure of a turbine blade is often caused under multiaxial cyclic loadings at high temperatures. In this paper, considering different failure types, a new energy-critical plane damage parameter is proposed for multiaxial fatigue life prediction, and no extra fitted material constants will be needed for practical applications. Moreover, three multiaxial models with maximum damage parameters on the critical plane are evaluated under tension-compression and tension-torsion loadings. Experimental data of GH4169 under proportional and non-proportional fatigue loadings and a case study of a turbine disk-blade contact system are introduced for model validation. Results show that model predictions by Wang-Brown (WB) and Fatemi-Socie (FS) models with maximum damage parameters are conservative and acceptable. For the turbine disk-blade contact system, both of the proposed damage parameters and Smith-Watson-Topper (SWT) model show reasonably acceptable correlations with its field number of flight cycles. However, life estimations of the turbine blade reveal that the definition of the maximum damage parameter is not reasonable for the WB model but effective for both the FS and SWT models. PMID:28772873

Relationship between the erosion properties of soils and other parameters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil parameters are essential for erosion process prediction and ultimately improved model development, especially as they relate to dam and levee failure. Soil parameters including soil texture and structure, soil classification, soil compaction, moisture content, and degree of saturation can play...

Peridynamics for failure and residual strength prediction of fiber-reinforced composites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colavito, Kyle

Peridynamics is a reformulation of classical continuum mechanics that utilizes integral equations in place of partial differential equations to remove the difficulty in handling discontinuities, such as cracks or interfaces, within a body. Damage is included within the constitutive model; initiation and propagation can occur without resorting to special crack growth criteria necessary in other commonly utilized approaches. Predicting damage and residual strengths of composite materials involves capturing complex, distinct and progressive failure modes. The peridynamic laminate theory correctly predicts the load redistribution in general laminate layups in the presence of complex failure modes through the use of multiple interaction types. This study presents two approaches to obtain the critical peridynamic failure parameters necessary to capture the residual strength of a composite structure. The validity of both approaches is first demonstrated by considering the residual strength of isotropic materials. The peridynamic theory is used to predict the crack growth and final failure load in both a diagonally loaded square plate with a center crack, as well as a four-point shear specimen subjected to asymmetric loading. This study also establishes the validity of each approach by considering composite laminate specimens in which each failure mode is isolated. Finally, the failure loads and final failure modes are predicted in a laminate with various hole diameters subjected to tensile and compressive loads.

Predicting Quarantine Failure Rates

PubMed Central

2004-01-01

Preemptive quarantine through contact-tracing effectively controls emerging infectious diseases. Occasionally this quarantine fails, however, and infected persons are released. The probability of quarantine failure is typically estimated from disease-specific data. Here a simple, exact estimate of the failure rate is derived that does not depend on disease-specific parameters. This estimate is universally applicable to all infectious diseases. PMID:15109418

Nonparametric method for failures diagnosis in the actuating subsystem of aircraft control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terentev, M. N.; Karpenko, S. S.; Zybin, E. Yu; Kosyanchuk, V. V.

2018-02-01

In this paper we design a nonparametric method for failures diagnosis in the aircraft control system that uses the measurements of the control signals and the aircraft states only. It doesn’t require a priori information of the aircraft model parameters, training or statistical calculations, and is based on analytical nonparametric one-step-ahead state prediction approach. This makes it possible to predict the behavior of unidentified and failure dynamic systems, to weaken the requirements to control signals, and to reduce the diagnostic time and problem complexity.

Composite laminate failure parameter optimization through four-point flexure experimentation and analysis

DOE PAGES

Nelson, Stacy; English, Shawn; Briggs, Timothy

2016-05-06

Fiber-reinforced composite materials offer light-weight solutions to many structural challenges. In the development of high-performance composite structures, a thorough understanding is required of the composite materials themselves as well as methods for the analysis and failure prediction of the relevant composite structures. However, the mechanical properties required for the complete constitutive definition of a composite material can be difficult to determine through experimentation. Therefore, efficient methods are necessary that can be used to determine which properties are relevant to the analysis of a specific structure and to establish a structure's response to a material parameter that can only be definedmore » through estimation. The objectives of this paper deal with demonstrating the potential value of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification techniques during the failure analysis of loaded composite structures; and the proposed methods are applied to the simulation of the four-point flexural characterization of a carbon fiber composite material. Utilizing a recently implemented, phenomenological orthotropic material model that is capable of predicting progressive composite damage and failure, a sensitivity analysis is completed to establish which material parameters are truly relevant to a simulation's outcome. Then, a parameter study is completed to determine the effect of the relevant material properties' expected variations on the simulated four-point flexural behavior as well as to determine the value of an unknown material property. This process demonstrates the ability to formulate accurate predictions in the absence of a rigorous material characterization effort. Finally, the presented results indicate that a sensitivity analysis and parameter study can be used to streamline the material definition process as the described flexural characterization was used for model validation.« less

Determination of a tissue-level failure evaluation standard for rat femoral cortical bone utilizing a hybrid computational-experimental method.

PubMed

Fan, Ruoxun; Liu, Jie; Jia, Zhengbin; Deng, Ying; Liu, Jun

2018-01-01

Macro-level failure in bone structure could be diagnosed by pain or physical examination. However, diagnosing tissue-level failure in a timely manner is challenging due to the difficulty in observing the interior mechanical environment of bone tissue. Because most fractures begin with tissue-level failure in bone tissue caused by continually applied loading, people attempt to monitor the tissue-level failure of bone and provide corresponding measures to prevent fracture. Many tissue-level mechanical parameters of bone could be predicted or measured; however, the value of the parameter may vary among different specimens belonging to a kind of bone structure even at the same age and anatomical site. These variations cause difficulty in representing tissue-level bone failure. Therefore, determining an appropriate tissue-level failure evaluation standard is necessary to represent tissue-level bone failure. In this study, the yield and failure processes of rat femoral cortical bones were primarily simulated through a hybrid computational-experimental method. Subsequently, the tissue-level strains and the ratio between tissue-level failure and yield strains in cortical bones were predicted. The results indicated that certain differences existed in tissue-level strains; however, slight variations in the ratio were observed among different cortical bones. Therefore, the ratio between tissue-level failure and yield strains for a kind of bone structure could be determined. This ratio may then be regarded as an appropriate tissue-level failure evaluation standard to represent the mechanical status of bone tissue.

Remote monitoring of LED lighting system performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thotagamuwa, Dinusha R.; Perera, Indika U.; Narendran, Nadarajah

2016-09-01

The concept of connected lighting systems using LED lighting for the creation of intelligent buildings is becoming attractive to building owners and managers. In this application, the two most important parameters include power demand and the remaining useful life of the LED fixtures. The first enables energy-efficient buildings and the second helps building managers schedule maintenance services. The failure of an LED lighting system can be parametric (such as lumen depreciation) or catastrophic (such as complete cessation of light). Catastrophic failures in LED lighting systems can create serious consequences in safety critical and emergency applications. Therefore, both failure mechanisms must be considered and the shorter of the two must be used as the failure time. Furthermore, because of significant variation between the useful lives of similar products, it is difficult to accurately predict the life of LED systems. Real-time data gathering and analysis of key operating parameters of LED systems can enable the accurate estimation of the useful life of a lighting system. This paper demonstrates the use of a data-driven method (Euclidean distance) to monitor the performance of an LED lighting system and predict its time to failure.

New Approach For Prediction Groundwater Depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, Mahmoud

2017-01-01

Current approaches to quantify groundwater depletion involve water balance and satellite gravity. However, the water balance technique includes uncertain estimation of parameters such as evapotranspiration and runoff. The satellite method consumes time and effort. The work reported in this paper proposes using failure theory in a novel way to predict groundwater saturated thickness depletion. An important issue in the failure theory proposed is to determine the failure point (depletion case). The proposed technique uses depth of water as the net result of recharge/discharge processes in the aquifer to calculate remaining saturated thickness resulting from the applied pumping rates in an area to evaluate the groundwater depletion. Two parameters, the Weibull function and Bayes analysis were used to model and analyze collected data from 1962 to 2009. The proposed methodology was tested in a nonrenewable aquifer, with no recharge. Consequently, the continuous decline in water depth has been the main criterion used to estimate the depletion. The value of the proposed approach is to predict the probable effect of the current applied pumping rates on the saturated thickness based on the remaining saturated thickness data. The limitation of the suggested approach is that it assumes the applied management practices are constant during the prediction period. The study predicted that after 300 years there would be an 80% probability of the saturated aquifer which would be expected to be depleted. Lifetime or failure theory can give a simple alternative way to predict the remaining saturated thickness depletion with no time-consuming processes such as the sophisticated software required.

Determination of fiber-matrix interface failure parameters from off-axis tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naik, Rajiv A.; Crews, John H., Jr.

1993-01-01

Critical fiber-matrix (FM) interface strength parameters were determined using a micromechanics-based approach together with failure data from off-axis tension (OAT) tests. The ply stresses at failure for a range of off-axis angles were used as input to a micromechanics analysis that was performed using the personal computer-based MICSTRAN code. FM interface stresses at the failure loads were calculated for both the square and the diamond array models. A simple procedure was developed to determine which array had the more severe FM interface stresses and the location of these critical stresses on the interface. For the cases analyzed, critical FM interface stresses were found to occur with the square array model and were located at a point where adjacent fibers were closest together. The critical FM interface stresses were used together with the Tsai-Wu failure theory to determine a failure criterion for the FM interface. This criterion was then used to predict the onset of ply cracking in angle-ply laminates for a range of laminate angles. Predictions for the onset of ply cracking in angle-ply laminates agreed with the test data trends.

Orthotropic elasto-plastic behavior of AS4/APC-2 thermoplastic composite in compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, C. T.; Rui, Y.

1989-01-01

Uniaxial compression tests were performed on off-axis coupon specimens of unidirectional AS4/APC-2 thermoplastic composite at various temperatures. The elasto-plastic and strength properties of AS4/APC-2 composite were characterized with respect to temperature variation by using a one-parameter orthotropic plasticity model and a one-parameter failure criterion. Experimental results show that the orthotropic plastic behavior can be characterized quite well using the plasticity model, and the matrix-dominant compressive strengths can be predicted very accurately by the one-parameter failure criterion.

Can baseline ultrasound results help to predict failure to achieve DAS28 remission after 1 year of tight control treatment in early RA patients?

PubMed

Ten Cate, D F; Jacobs, J W G; Swen, W A A; Hazes, J M W; de Jager, M H; Basoski, N M; Haagsma, C J; Luime, J J; Gerards, A H

2018-01-30

At present, there are no prognostic parameters unequivocally predicting treatment failure in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. We investigated whether baseline ultrasonography (US) findings of joints, when added to baseline clinical, laboratory, and radiographical data, could improve prediction of failure to achieve Disease Activity Score assessing 28 joints (DAS28) remission (<2.6) at 1 year in newly diagnosed RA patients. A multicentre cohort of newly diagnosed RA patients was followed prospectively for 1 year. US of the hands, wrists, and feet was performed at baseline. Clinical, laboratory, and radiographical parameters were recorded. Primary analysis was the prediction by logistic regression of the absence of DAS28 remission 12 months after diagnosis and start of therapy. Of 194 patients included, 174 were used for the analysis, with complete data available for 159. In a multivariate model with baseline DAS28 (odds ratio (OR) 1.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.2), the presence of rheumatoid factor (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-5.1), and type of monitoring strategy (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.05-0.85), the addition of baseline US results for joints (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.89-1.04) did not significantly improve the prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission (likelihood ratio test, 1.04; p = 0.31). In an early RA population, adding baseline ultrasonography of the hands, wrists, and feet to commonly available baseline characteristics did not improve prediction of failure to achieve DAS28 remission at 12 months. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01752309 . Registered on 19 December 2012.

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Product component genealogy modeling and field-failure prediction

DOE PAGES

King, Caleb; Hong, Yili; Meeker, William Q.

2016-04-13

Many industrial products consist of multiple components that are necessary for system operation. There is an abundance of literature on modeling the lifetime of such components through competing risks models. During the life-cycle of a product, it is common for there to be incremental design changes to improve reliability, to reduce costs, or due to changes in availability of certain part numbers. These changes can affect product reliability but are often ignored in system lifetime modeling. By incorporating this information about changes in part numbers over time (information that is readily available in most production databases), better accuracy can bemore » achieved in predicting time to failure, thus yielding more accurate field-failure predictions. This paper presents methods for estimating parameters and predictions for this generational model and a comparison with existing methods through the use of simulation. Our results indicate that the generational model has important practical advantages and outperforms the existing methods in predicting field failures.« less

Design of high temperature ceramic components against fast fracture and time-dependent failure using cares/life

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadaan, O.M.; Powers, L.M.; Nemeth, N.N.

1995-08-01

A probabilistic design methodology which predicts the fast fracture and time-dependent failure behavior of thermomechanically loaded ceramic components is discussed using the CARES/LIFE integrated design computer program. Slow crack growth (SCG) is assumed to be the mechanism responsible for delayed failure behavior. Inert strength and dynamic fatigue data obtained from testing coupon specimens (O-ring and C-ring specimens) are initially used to calculate the fast fracture and SCG material parameters as a function of temperature using the parameter estimation techniques available with the CARES/LIFE code. Finite element analysis (FEA) is used to compute the stress distributions for the tube as amore » function of applied pressure. Knowing the stress and temperature distributions and the fast fracture and SCG material parameters, the life time for a given tube can be computed. A stress-failure probability-time to failure (SPT) diagram is subsequently constructed for these tubes. Such a diagram can be used by design engineers to estimate the time to failure at a given failure probability level for a component subjected to a given thermomechanical load.« less

Airline Transport Pilot Preferences for Predictive Information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1996-01-01

This experiment assessed certain issues about the usefulness of predictive information: (1) the relative time criticality of failures, (2) the subjective utility of predictive information for different parameters or sensors, and (3) the preferred form and prediction time for displaying predictive information. To address these issues, three separate tasks were administered to 22 airline pilots. As shown by the data, these pilots preferred predictive information on parameters they considered vital to the safety of the flight. These parameters were related to the checklists performed first for alert messages. These pilots also preferred to know whether a parameter was changing abnormally and the time to a certain value being reached. Furthermore, they considered this information most useful during the cruise, the climb, and the descent phases of flight. Lastly, these pilots preferred the information to predict as far ahead as possible.

The practical impact of elastohydrodynamic lubrication

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, W. J.

1978-01-01

The use of elastohydrodynamics in the analysis of rolling element bearings is discussed. Relationships for minimum film thickness and tractive force were incorporated into computer codes and used for bearing performance prediction. The lambda parameter (ratio of film thickness to composite surface roughness) was shown to be important in predicting bearing life and failure mode. Results indicate that at values of lambda below 3 failure modes other than the classic subsurface initiated fatigue can occur.

On rate-state and Coulomb failure models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, J.; Beeler, N.; Blanpied, M.

2000-01-01

We examine the predictions of Coulomb failure stress and rate-state frictional models. We study the change in failure time (clock advance) Δt due to stress step perturbations (i.e., coseismic static stress increases) added to "background" stressing at a constant rate (i.e., tectonic loading) at time t0. The predictability of Δt implies a predictable change in seismicity rate r(t)/r0, testable using earthquake catalogs, where r0 is the constant rate resulting from tectonic stressing. Models of r(t)/r0, consistent with general properties of aftershock sequences, must predict an Omori law seismicity decay rate, a sequence duration that is less than a few percent of the mainshock cycle time and a return directly to the background rate. A Coulomb model requires that a fault remains locked during loading, that failure occur instantaneously, and that Δt is independent of t0. These characteristics imply an instantaneous infinite seismicity rate increase of zero duration. Numerical calculations of r(t)/r0 for different state evolution laws show that aftershocks occur on faults extremely close to failure at the mainshock origin time, that these faults must be "Coulomb-like," and that the slip evolution law can be precluded. Real aftershock population characteristics also may constrain rate-state constitutive parameters; a may be lower than laboratory values, the stiffness may be high, and/or normal stress may be lower than lithostatic. We also compare Coulomb and rate-state models theoretically. Rate-state model fault behavior becomes more Coulomb-like as constitutive parameter a decreases relative to parameter b. This is because the slip initially decelerates, representing an initial healing of fault contacts. The deceleration is more pronounced for smaller a, more closely simulating a locked fault. Even when the rate-state Δt has Coulomb characteristics, its magnitude may differ by some constant dependent on b. In this case, a rate-state model behaves like a modified Coulomb failure model in which the failure stress threshold is lowered due to weakening, increasing the clock advance. The deviation from a non-Coulomb response also depends on the loading rate, elastic stiffness, initial conditions, and assumptions about how state evolves.

Modeling the ductile fracture and the plastic anisotropy of DC01 steel at room temperature and low strain rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuninetti, V.; Yuan, S.; Gilles, G.; Guzmán, C. F.; Habraken, A. M.; Duchêne, L.

2016-08-01

This paper presents different extensions of the classical GTN damage model implemented in a finite element code. The goal of this study is to assess these extensions for the numerical prediction of failure of a DC01 steel sheet during a single point incremental forming process, after a proper identification of the material parameters. It is shown that the prediction of failure appears too early compared to experimental results. Though, the use of the Thomason criterion permitted to delay the onset of coalescence and consequently the final failure.

Implantable cardiac resynchronization therapy devices to monitor heart failure clinical status.

PubMed

Fung, Jeffrey Wing-Hong; Yu, Cheuk-Man

2007-03-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy is a standard therapy for selected patients with heart failure. With advances in technology and storage capacity, the device acts as a convenient platform to provide valuable information about heart failure status in these high-risk patients. Unlike other modalities of investigation which may only allow one-off evaluation, heart failure status can be monitored by device diagnostics including heart rate variability, activity status, and intrathoracic impedance in a continuous basis. These parameters do not just provide long-term prognostic information but also may be useful to predict upcoming heart failure exacerbation. Prompt and early intervention may abort decompensation, prevent hospitalization, improve quality of life, and reduce health care cost. Moreover, this information may be applied to titrate the dosage of medication and monitor response to heart failure treatment. This review will focus on the prognostic and predictive values of heart failure status monitoring provided by these devices.

Direct modeling parameter signature analysis and failure mode prediction of physical systems using hybrid computer optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drake, R. L.; Duvoisin, P. F.; Asthana, A.; Mather, T. W.

1971-01-01

High speed automated identification and design of dynamic systems, both linear and nonlinear, are discussed. Special emphasis is placed on developing hardware and techniques which are applicable to practical problems. The basic modeling experiment and new results are described. Using the improvements developed successful identification of several systems, including a physical example as well as simulated systems, was obtained. The advantages of parameter signature analysis over signal signature analysis in go-no go testing of operational systems were demonstrated. The feasibility of using these ideas in failure mode prediction in operating systems was also investigated. An improved digital controlled nonlinear function generator was developed, de-bugged, and completely documented.

Interactive Reliability Model for Whisker-toughened Ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

Wider use of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) will require the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. The use of an interactive model to predict the time-independent reliability of a component subjected to multiaxial loads is discussed. The deterministic, three-parameter Willam-Warnke failure criterion serves as the theoretical basis for the reliability model. The strength parameters defining the model are assumed to be random variables, thereby transforming the deterministic failure criterion into a probabilistic criterion. The ability of the model to account for multiaxial stress states with the same unified theory is an improvement over existing models. The new model was coupled with a public-domain finite element program through an integrated design program. This allows a design engineer to predict the probability of failure of a component. A simple structural problem is analyzed using the new model, and the results are compared to existing models.

Quasi-Static 3-Point Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Bend Test and Analysis for Shuttle Orbiter Wing Leading Edge Impact Damage Thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fasanella, Edwin L.; Sotiris, Kellas

2006-01-01

Static 3-point bend tests of Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) were conducted to failure to provide data for additional validation of an LS-DYNA RCC model suitable for predicting the threshold of impact damage to shuttle orbiter wing leading edges. LS-DYNA predictions correlated well with the average RCC failure load, and were good in matching the load vs. deflection. However, correlating the detectable damage using NDE methods with the cumulative damage parameter in LS-DYNA material model 58 was not readily achievable. The difficulty of finding internal RCC damage with NDE and the high sensitivity of the mat58 damage parameter to the load near failure made the task very challenging. In addition, damage mechanisms for RCC due to dynamic impact of debris such as foam and ice and damage mechanisms due to a static loading were, as expected, not equivalent.

Prediction of biomechanical parameters of the proximal femur using statistical appearance models and support vector regression.

PubMed

Fritscher, Karl; Schuler, Benedikt; Link, Thomas; Eckstein, Felix; Suhm, Norbert; Hänni, Markus; Hengg, Clemens; Schubert, Rainer

2008-01-01

Fractures of the proximal femur are one of the principal causes of mortality among elderly persons. Traditional methods for the determination of femoral fracture risk use methods for measuring bone mineral density. However, BMD alone is not sufficient to predict bone failure load for an individual patient and additional parameters have to be determined for this purpose. In this work an approach that uses statistical models of appearance to identify relevant regions and parameters for the prediction of biomechanical properties of the proximal femur will be presented. By using Support Vector Regression the proposed model based approach is capable of predicting two different biomechanical parameters accurately and fully automatically in two different testing scenarios.

Buckling Testing and Analysis of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor Cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weidner, Thomas J.; Larsen, David V.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A series of full-scale buckling tests were performed on the space shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) cylinders. The tests were performed to determine the buckling capability of the cylinders and to provide data for analytical comparison. A nonlinear ANSYS Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model was used to represent and evaluate the testing. Analytical results demonstrated excellent correlation to test results, predicting the failure load within 5%. The analytical value was on the conservative side, predicting a lower failure load than was applied to the test. The resulting study and analysis indicated the important parameters for FEA to accurately predict buckling failure. The resulting method was subsequently used to establish the pre-launch buckling capability of the space shuttle system.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika

2015-04-01

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano's inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 - 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between -2.86 up to 5.49 days.

Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anggraeni, Novia Antika, E-mail: novia.antika.a@gmail.com

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration ofmore » the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.« less

Time prediction of failure a type of lamps by using general composite hazard rate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riaman; Lesmana, E.; Subartini, B.; Supian, S.

2018-03-01

This paper discusses the basic survival model estimates to obtain the average predictive value of lamp failure time. This estimate is for the parametric model, General Composite Hazard Level Model. The random time variable model used is the exponential distribution model, as the basis, which has a constant hazard function. In this case, we discuss an example of survival model estimation for a composite hazard function, using an exponential model as its basis. To estimate this model is done by estimating model parameters, through the construction of survival function and empirical cumulative function. The model obtained, will then be used to predict the average failure time of the model, for the type of lamp. By grouping the data into several intervals and the average value of failure at each interval, then calculate the average failure time of a model based on each interval, the p value obtained from the tes result is 0.3296.

Nonlinear temperature dependent failure analysis of finite width composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagarkar, A. P.; Herakovich, C. T.

1979-01-01

A quasi-three dimensional, nonlinear elastic finite element stress analysis of finite width composite laminates including curing stresses is presented. Cross-ply, angle-ply, and two quasi-isotropic graphite/epoxy laminates are studied. Curing stresses are calculated using temperature dependent elastic properties that are input as percent retention curves, and stresses due to mechanical loading in the form of an axial strain are calculated using tangent modulii obtained by Ramberg-Osgood parameters. It is shown that curing stresses and stresses due to tensile loading are significant as edge effects in all types of laminate studies. The tensor polynomial failure criterion is used to predict the initiation of failure. The mode of failure is predicted by examining individual stress contributions to the tensor polynomial.

King’s College Hospital criteria for non-acetaminophen induced acute liver failure in an international cohort of children

PubMed Central

Sundaram, Vinay; Shneider, Benjamin L.; Dhawan, Anil; Ng, Vicky L.; Im, Kyungah; Belle, Steven; Squires, Robert H.

2012-01-01

Objective To validate King’s College Hospital criteria (KCHC) in children with non-acetaminophen (APAP) induced pediatric acute liver failure (PALF) and to determine whether re-optimizing the KCHC would improve predictive accuracy. Study design We utilized the PALF study group database. Primary outcomes were survival without liver transplantation (LT) versus death at 21 days following enrollment. Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to determine if modification of KCHC parameters would improve classification of death versus survival. Results Among 163 patients who met KCHC, 54 patients (33.1%) died within 21 days. Sensitivity of KCHC in this cohort was significantly lower than in the original study (61% vs 91%, p=0.002), and specificity did not differ significantly. The positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of KCHC for this cohort was 33% and 88% respectively. CART analysis yielded the following optimized parameters to predict death: grade 2–4 encephalopathy, international normalized ratio >4.02 and total bilirubin >2.02 mg/dL. These parameters did not improve PPV, but NPV was significantly better (88% vs. 92%, p<0.0001). Conclusions KCHC does not reliably predict death in PALF. With a PPV of 33%, twice as many participants who met KCHC recovered spontaneously than died, indicating that using KCHC may cause over utilization of LT. Re-optimized cutpoints for KCHC parameters improved NPV, but not PPV. Parameters beyond the KCHC should be evaluated to create a predictive model for PALF. PMID:22906509

Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

2002-01-01

A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

Estimation of lifetime distributions on 1550-nm DFB laser diodes using Monte-Carlo statistic computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshayes, Yannick; Verdier, Frederic; Bechou, Laurent; Tregon, Bernard; Danto, Yves; Laffitte, Dominique; Goudard, Jean Luc

2004-09-01

High performance and high reliability are two of the most important goals driving the penetration of optical transmission into telecommunication systems ranging from 880 nm to 1550 nm. Lifetime prediction defined as the time at which a parameter reaches its maximum acceptable shirt still stays the main result in terms of reliability estimation for a technology. For optoelectronic emissive components, selection tests and life testing are specifically used for reliability evaluation according to Telcordia GR-468 CORE requirements. This approach is based on extrapolation of degradation laws, based on physics of failure and electrical or optical parameters, allowing both strong test time reduction and long-term reliability prediction. Unfortunately, in the case of mature technology, there is a growing complexity to calculate average lifetime and failure rates (FITs) using ageing tests in particular due to extremely low failure rates. For present laser diode technologies, time to failure tend to be 106 hours aged under typical conditions (Popt=10 mW and T=80°C). These ageing tests must be performed on more than 100 components aged during 10000 hours mixing different temperatures and drive current conditions conducting to acceleration factors above 300-400. These conditions are high-cost, time consuming and cannot give a complete distribution of times to failure. A new approach consists in use statistic computations to extrapolate lifetime distribution and failure rates in operating conditions from physical parameters of experimental degradation laws. In this paper, Distributed Feedback single mode laser diodes (DFB-LD) used for 1550 nm telecommunication network working at 2.5 Gbit/s transfer rate are studied. Electrical and optical parameters have been measured before and after ageing tests, performed at constant current, according to Telcordia GR-468 requirements. Cumulative failure rates and lifetime distributions are computed using statistic calculations and equations of drift mechanisms versus time fitted from experimental measurements.

The impact law of confining pressure and plastic parameter on Dilatancy of rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bin; Zhang, Zhenjie; Zhu, Jiebing

2017-08-01

Based on cyclic loading-unloading triaxle test of marble, the double parameter dilation angle model is established considering confining pressure effect and plastic parameter. Research shows that not only the strength but also the militancy behavior is highly depended on its confining pressure and plastic parameter during process of failure. Dilation angle evolution law shows obvious nonlinear characteristic almost with a rapid increase to the peak and then decrease gradually with plastic increasing, and the peak dilation angle value is inversely proportional with confining pressure. The proposed double parameter nonlinear dilation angle model can be used to well describe the Dilatancy of rock, which helps to understand the failure mechanism of surrounding rock mass and predict the range of plastic zone.

Predictive Information: Status or Alert Information?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trujillo, Anna C.; Bruneau, Daniel; Press, Hayes N.

2008-01-01

Previous research investigating the efficacy of predictive information for detecting and diagnosing aircraft system failures found that subjects like to have predictive information concerning when a parameter would reach an alert range. This research focused on where the predictive information should be located, whether the information should be more closely associated with the parameter information or with the alert information. Each subject saw 3 forms of predictive information: (1) none, (2) a predictive alert message, and (3) predictive information on the status display. Generally, subjects performed better and preferred to have predictive information available although the difference between status and alert predictive information was minimal. Overall, for detection and recalling what happened, status predictive information is best; however for diagnosis, alert predictive information holds a slight edge.

A predictive model for failure properties of thermoset resins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caruthers, James M.; Bowles, Kenneth J.

1989-01-01

A predictive model for the three-dimensional failure behavior of engineering polymers has been developed in a recent NASA-sponsored research program. This model acknowledges the underlying molecular deformation mechanisms and thus accounts for the effects of different chemical compositions, crosslink density, functionality of the curing agent, etc., on the complete nonlinear stress-strain response including yield. The material parameters required by the model can be determined from test-tube quantities of a new resin in only a few days. Thus, we can obtain a first-order prediction of the applicability of a new resin for an advanced aerospace application without synthesizing the large quantities of material needed for failure testing. This technology will effect order-of-magnitude reductions in the time and expense required to develop new engineering polymers.

Assessment of compressive failure process of cortical bone materials using damage-based model.

PubMed

Ng, Theng Pin; R Koloor, S S; Djuansjah, J R P; Abdul Kadir, M R

2017-02-01

The main failure factors of cortical bone are aging or osteoporosis, accident and high energy trauma or physiological activities. However, the mechanism of damage evolution coupled with yield criterion is considered as one of the unclear subjects in failure analysis of cortical bone materials. Therefore, this study attempts to assess the structural response and progressive failure process of cortical bone using a brittle damaged plasticity model. For this reason, several compressive tests are performed on cortical bone specimens made of bovine femur, in order to obtain the structural response and mechanical properties of the material. Complementary finite element (FE) model of the sample and test is prepared to simulate the elastic-to-damage behavior of the cortical bone using the brittle damaged plasticity model. The FE model is validated in a comparative method using the predicted and measured structural response as load-compressive displacement through simulation and experiment. FE results indicated that the compressive damage initiated and propagated at central region where maximum equivalent plastic strain is computed, which coincided with the degradation of structural compressive stiffness followed by a vast amount of strain energy dissipation. The parameter of compressive damage rate, which is a function dependent on damage parameter and the plastic strain is examined for different rates. Results show that considering a similar rate to the initial slope of the damage parameter in the experiment would give a better sense for prediction of compressive failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determination of Fracture Parameters for Multiple Cracks of Laminated Composite Finite Plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Amit Kumar; Arora, P. K.; Srivastava, Sharad Chandra; Kumar, Harish; Lohumi, M. K.

2018-04-01

A predictive method for estimation of stress state at zone of crack tip and assessment of remaining component lifetime depend on the stress intensity factor (SIF). This paper discusses the numerical approach for prediction of first ply failure load (FL), progressive failure load, SIF and critical SIF for multiple cracks configurations of laminated composite finite plate using finite element method (FEM). The Hashin and Chang failure criterion are incorporated in ABAQUS using subroutine approach user defined field variables (USDFLD) for prediction of progressive fracture response of laminated composite finite plate, which is not directly available in the software. A tensile experiment on laminated composite finite plate with stress concentration is performed to validate the numerically predicted subroutine results, shows excellent agreement. The typical results are presented to examine effect of changing the crack tip distance (S), crack offset distance (H), and stacking fiber angle (θ) on FL, and SIF .

Prediction of muscle performance during dynamic repetitive movement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

2003-01-01

BACKGROUND: During long-duration spaceflight, astronauts experience progressive muscle atrophy and often perform strenuous extravehicular activities. Post-flight, there is a lengthy recovery period with an increased risk for injury. Currently, there is a critical need for an enabling tool to optimize muscle performance and to minimize the risk of injury to astronauts while on-orbit and during post-flight recovery. Consequently, these studies were performed to develop a method to address this need. METHODS: Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure at 65% of their upper torso weight using a Lordex spinal machine. Surface electromyography (SEMG) data was collected from the erector spinae back muscle. The SEMG data was evaluated using a 5th order autoregressive (AR) model and linear regression analysis. RESULTS: The best predictor found was an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, with r = 0.75 and p = 0.03. This parameter can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. CONCLUSION: A method for predicting human muscle performance early during dynamic repetitive exercise was developed. The capability to predict performance to failure has many potential applications to the space program including evaluating countermeasure effectiveness on-orbit, optimizing post-flight recovery, and potential future real-time monitoring capability during extravehicular activity.

Prediction of moment-rotation characteristic of top- and seat-angle bolted connection incorporating prying action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ali

2017-03-01

Finite element (FE) analyses were performed to explore the prying influence on moment-rotation behaviour and to locate yielding zones of top- and seat-angle connections in author's past research studies. The results of those FE analyses with experimental failure strategies of the connections were used to develop failure mechanisms of top- and seat-angle connections in the present study. Then a formulation was developed based on three simple failure mechanisms considering bending and shear deformations, effects of prying action on the top angle and stiffness of the tension bolts to estimate rationally the ultimate moment M u of the connection, which is a vital parameter of the proposed four-parameter power model. Applicability of the proposed formulation is assessed by comparing moment-rotation ( M- θ r ) curves and ultimate moment capacities with those measured by experiments and estimated by FE analyses and three-parameter power model. This study shows that proposed formulation and Kishi-Chen's method both achieved close approximation driving M- θ r curves of all given connections except a few cases of Kishi-Chen model, and M u estimated by the proposed formulation is more rational than that predicted by Kishi-Chen's method.

Fracture simulation of restored teeth using a continuum damage mechanics failure model.

PubMed

Li, Haiyan; Li, Jianying; Zou, Zhenmin; Fok, Alex Siu-Lun

2011-07-01

The aim of this paper is to validate the use of a finite-element (FE) based continuum damage mechanics (CDM) failure model to simulate the debonding and fracture of restored teeth. Fracture testing of plastic model teeth, with or without a standard Class-II MOD (mesial-occusal-distal) restoration, was carried out to investigate their fracture behavior. In parallel, 2D FE models of the teeth are constructed and analyzed using the commercial FE software ABAQUS. A CDM failure model, implemented into ABAQUS via the user element subroutine (UEL), is used to simulate the debonding and/or final fracture of the model teeth under a compressive load. The material parameters needed for the CDM model to simulate fracture are obtained through separate mechanical tests. The predicted results are then compared with the experimental data of the fracture tests to validate the failure model. The failure processes of the intact and restored model teeth are successfully reproduced by the simulation. However, the fracture parameters obtained from testing small specimens need to be adjusted to account for the size effect. The results indicate that the CDM model is a viable model for the prediction of debonding and fracture in dental restorations. Copyright © 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of enamel preservation on failure rates of porcelain laminate veneers.

PubMed

Gurel, Galip; Sesma, Newton; Calamita, Marcelo A; Coachman, Christian; Morimoto, Susana

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the failure rates of porcelain laminate veneers (PLVs) and the influence of clinical parameters on these rates in a retrospective survey of up to 12 years. Five hundred eighty laminate veneers were bonded in 66 patients. The following parameters were analyzed: type of preparation (depth and margin), crown lengthening, presence of restoration, diastema, crowding, discoloration, abrasion, and attrition. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression modeling was used to determine which factors would predict PLV failure. Forty-two veneers (7.2%) failed in 23 patients, and an overall cumulative survival rate of 86% was observed. A statistically significant association was noted between failure and the limits of the prepared tooth surface (margin and depth). The most frequent failure type was fracture (n = 20). The results revealed no significant influence of crown lengthening apically, presence of restoration, diastema, discoloration, abrasion, or attrition on failure rates. Multivariable analysis (Cox regression model) also showed that PLVs bonded to dentin and teeth with preparation margins in dentin were approximately 10 times more likely to fail than PLVs bonded to enamel. Moreover, coronal crown lengthening increased the risk of PLV failure by 2.3 times. A survival rate of 99% was observed for veneers with preparations confined to enamel and 94% for veneers with enamel only at the margins. Laminate veneers have high survival rates when bonded to enamel and provide a safe and predictable treatment option that preserves tooth structure.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Stacy; English, Shawn; Briggs, Timothy

Fiber-reinforced composite materials offer light-weight solutions to many structural challenges. In the development of high-performance composite structures, a thorough understanding is required of the composite materials themselves as well as methods for the analysis and failure prediction of the relevant composite structures. However, the mechanical properties required for the complete constitutive definition of a composite material can be difficult to determine through experimentation. Therefore, efficient methods are necessary that can be used to determine which properties are relevant to the analysis of a specific structure and to establish a structure's response to a material parameter that can only be definedmore » through estimation. The objectives of this paper deal with demonstrating the potential value of sensitivity and uncertainty quantification techniques during the failure analysis of loaded composite structures; and the proposed methods are applied to the simulation of the four-point flexural characterization of a carbon fiber composite material. Utilizing a recently implemented, phenomenological orthotropic material model that is capable of predicting progressive composite damage and failure, a sensitivity analysis is completed to establish which material parameters are truly relevant to a simulation's outcome. Then, a parameter study is completed to determine the effect of the relevant material properties' expected variations on the simulated four-point flexural behavior as well as to determine the value of an unknown material property. This process demonstrates the ability to formulate accurate predictions in the absence of a rigorous material characterization effort. Finally, the presented results indicate that a sensitivity analysis and parameter study can be used to streamline the material definition process as the described flexural characterization was used for model validation.« less

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

A life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulbert, C. D.

1978-01-01

This paper presents an approach to the development of a life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells which are intended to operate for twenty years or more in a terrestrial environment. Such a methodology, or solar cell life prediction model, requires the development of quantitative intermediate relationships between local environmental stress parameters and the basic chemical mechanisms of encapsulant aging leading to solar cell failures. The use of accelerated/abbreviated testing to develop these intermediate relationships and in revealing failure modes is discussed. Current field and demonstration tests of solar cell arrays and the present laboratory tests to qualify solar module designs provide very little data applicable to predicting the long-term performance of encapsulated solar cells. An approach to enhancing the value of such field tests to provide data for life prediction is described.

Integrated Logistics Support Analysis of the International Space Station Alpha, Background and Summary of Mathematical Modeling and Failure Density Distributions Pertaining to Maintenance Time Dependent Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepehry-Fard, F.; Coulthard, Maurice H.

1995-01-01

The process of predicting the values of maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as mean time between failures (MTBF) over time must be one that will not in turn introduce uncontrolled deviation in the results of the ILS analysis such as life cycle costs, spares calculation, etc. A minor deviation in the values of the maintenance time dependent variable parameters such as MTBF over time will have a significant impact on the logistics resources demands, International Space Station availability and maintenance support costs. There are two types of parameters in the logistics and maintenance world: a. Fixed; b. Variable Fixed parameters, such as cost per man hour, are relatively easy to predict and forecast. These parameters normally follow a linear path and they do not change randomly. However, the variable parameters subject to the study in this report such as MTBF do not follow a linear path and they normally fall within the distribution curves which are discussed in this publication. The very challenging task then becomes the utilization of statistical techniques to accurately forecast the future non-linear time dependent variable arisings and events with a high confidence level. This, in turn, shall translate in tremendous cost savings and improved availability all around.

Prediction of Brittle Failure for TBM Tunnels in Anisotropic Rock: A Case Study from Northern Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dammyr, Øyvind

2016-06-01

Prediction of spalling and rock burst is especially important for hard rock TBM tunneling, because failure can have larger impact than in a drill and blast tunnel and ultimately threaten excavation feasibility. The majority of research on brittle failure has focused on rock types with isotropic behavior. This paper gives a review of existing theory and its application before a 3.5-m-diameter TBM tunnel in foliated granitic gneiss is used as a case to study brittle failure characteristics of anisotropic rock. Important aspects that should be considered in order to predict brittle failure in anisotropic rock are highlighted. Foliation is responsible for considerable strength anisotropy and is believed to influence the preferred side of v-shaped notch development in the investigated tunnel. Prediction methods such as the semi- empirical criterion, the Hoek- Brown brittle parameters, and the non-linear damage initiation and spalling limit method give reliable results; but only as long as the angle between compression axis and foliation in uniaxial compressive tests is relevant, dependent on the relation between tunnel trend/plunge, strike/dip of foliation, and tunnel boundary stresses. It is further demonstrated that local in situ stress variations, for example, due to the presence of discontinuities, can have profound impact on failure predictions. Other carefully documented case studies into the brittle failure nature of rock, in particular anisotropic rock, are encouraged in order to expand the existing and relatively small database. This will be valuable for future TBM planning and construction stages in highly stressed brittle anisotropic rock.

Evaluation of a Multi-Axial, Temperature, and Time Dependent (MATT) Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, D. E.; Anderson, G. L.; Macon, D. J.; Rudolphi, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

To obtain a better understanding the response of the structural adhesives used in the Space Shuttle's Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle, an extensive effort has been conducted to characterize in detail the failure properties of these adhesives. This effort involved the development of a failure model that includes the effects of multi-axial loading, temperature, and time. An understanding of the effects of these parameters on the failure of the adhesive is crucial to the understanding and prediction of the safety of the RSRM nozzle. This paper documents the use of this newly developed multi-axial, temperature, and time (MATT) dependent failure model for modeling failure for the adhesives TIGA 321, EA913NA, and EA946. The development of the mathematical failure model using constant load rate normal and shear test data is presented. Verification of the accuracy of the failure model is shown through comparisons between predictions and measured creep and multi-axial failure data. The verification indicates that the failure model performs well for a wide range of conditions (loading, temperature, and time) for the three adhesives. The failure criterion is shown to be accurate through the glass transition for the adhesive EA946. Though this failure model has been developed and evaluated with adhesives, the concepts are applicable for other isotropic materials.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 1: Methodology and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for designs failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Probabilistic models for flaw propagation and turbine blade failure. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflights systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with analytical modeling of failure phenomena to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in analytical modeling, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which analytical models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. State-of-the-art analytical models currently employed for design, failure prediction, or performance analysis are used in this methodology. The rationale for the statistical approach taken in the PFA methodology is discussed, the PFA methodology is described, and examples of its application to structural failure modes are presented. The engineering models and computer software used in fatigue crack growth and fatigue crack initiation applications are thoroughly documented.

Ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration predicts the response of tolvaptan in congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Shimizu, Keisuke; Doi, Kent; Imamura, Teruhiko; Noiri, Eisei; Yahagi, Naoki; Nangaku, Masaomi; Kinugawa, Koichiro

2015-06-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the ratio of urine and blood urea nitrogen concentration (UUN/BUN) as a new predictive factor for the response of an arginine vasopressin receptor 2 antagonist tolvaptan (TLV) in decompensated heart failure patients. This study enrolled 70 decompensated heart failure patients who were administered TLV at University of Tokyo Hospital. We collected the data of clinical parameters including UUN/BUN before administering TLV. Two different outcomes were defined as follows: having over 300 mL increase in urine volume on the first day (immediate urine output response) and having any decrease in body weight within one week after starting TLV treatment (subsequent clinical response). Among the 70 enrolled patients, 37 patients (52.9%) showed immediate urine output response; 51 patients (72.9%) showed a subsequent clinical response of body weight decrease. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed good prediction by UUN/BUN for the immediate response (AUC-ROC 0.86 [0.75-0.93]) and a significantly better prediction by UUN/BUN for the subsequent clinical response compared with urinary osmolality (AUC-ROC 0.78 [0.63-0.88] vs. 0.68 [0.52-0.80], P < 0.05). We demonstrated that a clinical parameter of UUN/BUN can predict the response of TLV even when measured before TLV administration. UUN/BUN might enable identification of good responders for this new drug. © 2015 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Prediction of bone strength at the distal tibia by HR-pQCT and DXA.

PubMed

Popp, Albrecht W; Windolf, Markus; Senn, Christoph; Tami, Andrea; Richards, R Geoff; Brianza, Stefano; Schiuma, Damiano

2012-01-01

Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) at the distal tibia, measured at the epiphysis (T-EPI) and diaphysis (T-DIA), is predictive for fracture risk. Structural bone parameters evaluated at the distal tibia by high resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) displayed differences between healthy and fracture patients. With its simple geometry, T-DIA may allow investigating the correlation between bone structural parameter and bone strength. Anatomical tibiae were examined ex vivo by DXA (aBMD) and HR-pQCT (volumetric BMD (vBMD) and bone microstructural parameters). Cortical thickness (CTh) and polar moment of inertia (pMOI) were derived from DXA measurements. Finally, an index combining material (BMD) and mechanical property (polar moment of inertia, pMOI) was defined and analyzed for correlation with torque at failure and stiffness values obtained by biomechanical testing. Areal BMD predicted the vBMD at T-EPI and T-DIA. A high correlation was found between aBMD and microstructural parameters at T-EPIas well as between aBMD and CTh at T-DIA. Finally, at T-DIA both indexes combining BMD and pMOI were strongly and comparably correlated with torque at failure and bone stiffness. Ex vivo, at the distal tibial diaphysis, a novel index combining BMD and pMOI, which can be calculated directly from a single DXA measurement, predicted bone strength and stiffness better than either parameter alone and with an order of magnitude comparable to that of HR-pQCT. Whether this index is suitable for better prediction of fracture risk in vivo deserves further investigation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-01-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Interconnect fatigue design for terrestrial photovoltaic modules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mon, G. R.; Moore, D. M.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

1982-03-01

The results of comprehensive investigation of interconnect fatigue that has led to the definition of useful reliability-design and life-prediction algorithms are presented. Experimental data indicate that the classical strain-cycle (fatigue) curve for the interconnect material is a good model of mean interconnect fatigue performance, but it fails to account for the broad statistical scatter, which is critical to reliability prediction. To fill this shortcoming the classical fatigue curve is combined with experimental cumulative interconnect failure rate data to yield statistical fatigue curves (having failure probability as a parameter) which enable (1) the prediction of cumulative interconnect failures during the design life of an array field, and (2) the unambiguous--ie., quantitative--interpretation of data from field-service qualification (accelerated thermal cycling) tests. Optimal interconnect cost-reliability design algorithms are derived based on minimizing the cost of energy over the design life of the array field.

Reducing unscheduled plant maintenance delays -- Field test of a new method to predict electric motor failure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Homce, G.T.; Thalimer, J.R.

1996-05-01

Most electric motor predictive maintenance methods have drawbacks that limit their effectiveness in the mining environment. The US Bureau of Miens (USBM) is developing an alternative approach to detect winding insulation breakdown in advance of complete motor failure. In order to evaluate the analysis algorithms necessary for this approach, the USBM has designed and installed a system to monitor 120 electric motors in a coal preparation plant. The computer-based experimental system continuously gathers, stores, and analyzes electrical parameters for each motor. The results are then correlated to data from conventional motor-maintenance methods and in-service failures to determine if the analysismore » algorithms can detect signs of insulation deterioration and impending failure. This paper explains the on-line testing approach used in this research, and describes monitoring system design and implementation. At this writing data analysis is underway, but conclusive results are not yet available.« less

A Probabilistic Model for Predicting Attenuation of Viruses During Percolation in Unsaturated Natural Barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulkner, B. R.; Lyon, W. G.

2001-12-01

We present a probabilistic model for predicting virus attenuation. The solution employs the assumption of complete mixing. Monte Carlo methods are used to generate ensemble simulations of virus attenuation due to physical, biological, and chemical factors. The model generates a probability of failure to achieve 4-log attenuation. We tabulated data from related studies to develop probability density functions for input parameters, and utilized a database of soil hydraulic parameters based on the 12 USDA soil categories. Regulators can use the model based on limited information such as boring logs, climate data, and soil survey reports for a particular site of interest. Plackett-Burman sensitivity analysis indicated the most important main effects on probability of failure to achieve 4-log attenuation in our model were mean logarithm of saturated hydraulic conductivity (+0.396), mean water content (+0.203), mean solid-water mass transfer coefficient (-0.147), and the mean solid-water equilibrium partitioning coefficient (-0.144). Using the model, we predicted the probability of failure of a one-meter thick proposed hydrogeologic barrier and a water content of 0.3. With the currently available data and the associated uncertainty, we predicted soils classified as sand would fail (p=0.999), silt loams would also fail (p=0.292), but soils classified as clays would provide the required 4-log attenuation (p=0.001). The model is extendible in the sense that probability density functions of parameters can be modified as future studies refine the uncertainty, and the lightweight object-oriented design of the computer model (implemented in Java) will facilitate reuse with modified classes. This is an abstract of a proposed presentation and does not necessarily reflect EPA policy.

Experimental micromechanical approach to failure process in CFRP cross-ply laminates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Takeda, N.; Ogihara, S.; Kobayashi, A.

The microscopic failure process of three different types of cross-ply laminates, (0/90{sub n}/0) (n = 4, 8, 12), was investigated at R.T. and 80 C. Progressive damage parameters, the transverse crack density and the delamination ratio, were measured. A simple modified shear-lag analysis including the thermal residual strains was conducted to predict the transverse crack density as a function of laminate strain, considering the constraint effect, as well as the strength distribution of the transverse layer. The analysis was also extended to the system containing delamination to predict the delamination length. A prediction was also presented for the transverse crackmore » density including the effect of the delamination growth. The prediction showed good agreement with the experimental results.« less

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 3: Structure and listing of programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, N. R.; Ebbeler, D. H.; Newlin, L. E.; Sutharshana, S.; Creager, M.

1992-01-01

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Static penetration resistance of soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Durgunoglu, H. T.; Mitchell, J. K.

1973-01-01

Model test results were used to define the failure mechanism associated with the static penetration resistance of cohesionless and low-cohesion soils. Knowledge of this mechanism has permitted the development of a new analytical method for calculating the ultimate penetration resistance which explicitly accounts for penetrometer base apex angle and roughness, soil friction angle, and the ratio of penetration depth to base width. Curves relating the bearing capacity factors to the soil friction angle are presented for failure in general shear. Strength parameters and penetrometer interaction properties of a fine sand were determined and used as the basis for prediction of the penetration resistance encountered by wedge, cone, and flat-ended penetrometers of different surface roughness using the proposed analytical method. Because of the close agreement between predicted values and values measured in laboratory tests, it appears possible to deduce in-situ soil strength parameters and their variation with depth from the results of static penetration tests.

CARES/Life Software for Designing More Reliable Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Baker, Eric H.

1997-01-01

Products made from advanced ceramics show great promise for revolutionizing aerospace and terrestrial propulsion, and power generation. However, ceramic components are difficult to design because brittle materials in general have widely varying strength values. The CAPES/Life software eases this task by providing a tool to optimize the design and manufacture of brittle material components using probabilistic reliability analysis techniques. Probabilistic component design involves predicting the probability of failure for a thermomechanically loaded component from specimen rupture data. Typically, these experiments are performed using many simple geometry flexural or tensile test specimens. A static, dynamic, or cyclic load is applied to each specimen until fracture. Statistical strength and SCG (fatigue) parameters are then determined from these data. Using these parameters and the results obtained from a finite element analysis, the time-dependent reliability for a complex component geometry and loading is then predicted. Appropriate design changes are made until an acceptable probability of failure has been reached.

TWT transmitter fault prediction based on ANFIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Mengyan; Li, Junshan; Li, Shuangshuang; Wang, Wenqing; Li, Fen

2017-11-01

Fault prediction is an important component of health management, and plays an important role in the reliability guarantee of complex electronic equipments. Transmitter is a unit with high failure rate. The cathode performance of TWT is a common fault of transmitter. In this dissertation, a model based on a set of key parameters of TWT is proposed. By choosing proper parameters and applying adaptive neural network training model, this method, combined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), has a certain reference value for the overall health judgment of TWT transmitters.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Disturbed State constitutive modeling of two Pleistocene tills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sane, S. M.; Desai, C. S.; Jenson, J. W.; Contractor, D. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Clark, P. U.

2008-02-01

The Disturbed State Concept (DSC) provides a general approach for constitutive modeling of deforming materials. Here, we briefly explain the DSC and present the results of laboratory tests on two regionally significant North American tills, along with the results of a numerical simulation to predict the behavior of one of the tills in an idealized physical system. Laboratory shear tests showed that plastic strain starts almost from the beginning of loading, and that failure and resulting motion begin at a critical disturbance, when about 85% of the mass has reached the fully adjusted or critical state. Specimens of both tills exhibited distributed strain, deforming into barrel shapes without visible shear planes. DSC parameters obtained from shear and creep tests were validated by comparing model predictions against test data used to find the parameters, as well as against data from independent tests. The DSC parameters from one of the tills were applied in a finite-element simulation to predict gravity-induced motion for a 5000-m long, 100-m thick slab of ice coupled to an underlying 1.5-m thick layer of till set on a 4° incline, with pore-water pressure in the till at 90% of the load. The simulation predicted that in the middle segment of the till layer (i.e., from x=2000 to 3000 m) the induced (computed) shear stress, strain, and disturbance increase gradually with the applied shear stress. Induced shear stress peaks at ˜60 kPa. The critical disturbance, at which failure occurs, is observed after the peak shear stress, at an induced shear stress of ˜23 kPa and shear strain of ˜0.75 in the till. Calculated horizontal displacement over the height of the entire till section at the applied shear stress of 65 kPa is ˜4.5 m. We note that the numerical prediction of critical disturbance, when the displacement shows a sharp change in rate, compares very well with the occurrence of critical disturbance observed in the laboratory triaxial tests, when a sharp change in the rate of strain occurs. This implies that the failure and concomitant initiation of motion occur near the residual state, at large strains. In contrast to the Mohr-Coulomb model, which predicts failure and motion at very small (elastic) strain, the DSC thus predicts failure and initiation of motion after the till has undergone considerable (plastic) strain. These results suggest that subglacial till may be able to sustain stress in the vicinity of 20 kPa even after the motion begins. They also demonstrate the potential of the DSC to model not only local behavior, including potential "sticky spot" mechanisms, but also global behavior for soft-bedded ice.

Right ventricular dysfunction in acute pulmonary embolism: NT-proBNP vs. troponin T.

PubMed

Cotugno, Marilena; Orgaz-Molina, Jacinto; Rosa-Salazar, Vladimir; Guirado-Torrecillas, Leticia; García-Pérez, Bartolomé

2017-04-21

Dysfunction of the right ventricle (RV) is a parameter of severity in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Echocardiographic assessment is not always possible in accident and emergency, hence the need to predict the presence of RV dysfunction using easily measurable parameters. To analyse the value of NT-proBNP and troponin T as markers of RV dysfunction in patients with acute PE. Secondarily, to assess the relationship between RV failure and clinical parameters related to PE. Analytical, observational, cross-sectional and retrospective study comparing the values NT-proBNP, troponin T and presenting symptoms of PE among patients with and without RV dysfunction. One hundred seventy-two patients (52 with RV failure,120 without) were included. All symptoms occurred with similar frequency between the 2groups except dyspnea and syncope (more common in the group with RV failure). Both NT-proBNP and troponin T had significantly higher values in the group of patients with RV dysfunction. However, in the multivariate analysis, NT-proBNP had a higher explanatory value for RV failure than troponin T. NT-proBNP is a diagnostic parameter of RV dysfunction with higher sensitivity in the context of acute PE. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Natriuretic Peptide and Clinical Evaluation in the Diagnosis of Heart Failure Hemodynamic Profile: Comparison with Tissue Doppler Echocardiography.

PubMed

Almeida Junior, Gustavo Luiz Gouvêa de; Clausell, Nadine; Garcia, Marcelo Iorio; Esporcatte, Roberto; Rangel, Fernando Oswaldo Dias; Rocha, Ricardo Mourilhe; Beck-da-Silva, Luis; Silva, Fabricio Braga da; Gorgulho, Paula de Castro Carvalho; Xavier, Sergio Salles

2018-03-01

Physical examination and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) have been used to estimate hemodynamics and tailor therapy of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) patients. However, correlation between these parameters and left ventricular filling pressures is controversial. This study was designed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of physical examination, chest radiography (CR) and BNP in estimating left atrial pressure (LAP) as assessed by tissue Doppler echocardiogram. Patients admitted with ADHF were prospectively assessed. Diagnostic characteristics of physical signs of heart failure, CR and BNP in predicting elevation (> 15 mm Hg) of LAP, alone or combined, were calculated. Spearman test was used to analyze the correlation between non-normal distribution variables. The level of significance was 5%. Forty-three patients were included, with mean age of 69.9 ± 11.1years, left ventricular ejection fraction of 25 ± 8.0%, and BNP of 1057 ± 1024.21 pg/mL. Individually, all clinical, CR or BNP parameters had a poor performance in predicting LAP ≥ 15 mm Hg. A clinical score of congestion had the poorest performance [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.53], followed by clinical score + CR (AUC 0.60), clinical score + CR + BNP > 400 pg/mL (AUC 0.62), and clinical score + CR + BNP > 1000 pg/mL (AUC 0.66). Physical examination, CR and BNP had a poor performance in predicting a LAP ≥ 15 mm Hg. Using these parameters alone or in combination may lead to inaccurate estimation of hemodynamics.

Micromechanical investigation of ductile failure in Al 5083-H116 via 3D unit cell modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomarito, G. F.; Warner, D. H.

2015-01-01

Ductile failure is governed by the evolution of micro-voids within a material. The micro-voids, which commonly initiate at second phase particles within metal alloys, grow and interact with each other until failure occurs. The evolution of the micro-voids, and therefore ductile failure, depends on many parameters (e.g., stress state, temperature, strain rate, void and particle volume fraction, etc.). In this study, the stress state dependence of the ductile failure of Al 5083-H116 is investigated by means of 3-D Finite Element (FE) periodic cell models. The cell models require only two pieces of information as inputs: (1) the initial particle volume fraction of the alloy and (2) the constitutive behavior of the matrix material. Based on this information, cell models are subjected to a given stress state, defined by the stress triaxiality and the Lode parameter. For each stress state, the cells are loaded in many loading orientations until failure. Material failure is assumed to occur in the weakest orientation, and so the orientation in which failure occurs first is considered as the critical orientation. The result is a description of material failure that is derived from basic principles and requires no fitting parameters. Subsequently, the results of the simulations are used to construct a homogenized material model, which is used in a component-scale FE model. The component-scale FE model is compared to experiments and is shown to over predict ductility. By excluding smaller nucleation events and load path non-proportionality, it is concluded that accuracy could be gained by including more information about the true microstructure in the model; emphasizing that its incorporation into micromechanical models is critical to developing quantitatively accurate physics-based ductile failure models.

Life prediction of different commercial dental implants as influence by uncertainties in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions.

PubMed

Pérez, M A

2012-12-01

Probabilistic analyses allow the effect of uncertainty in system parameters to be determined. In the literature, many researchers have investigated static loading effects on dental implants. However, the intrinsic variability and uncertainty of most of the main problem parameters are not accounted for. The objective of this research was to apply a probabilistic computational approach to predict the fatigue life of three different commercial dental implants considering the variability and uncertainty in their fatigue material properties and loading conditions. For one of the commercial dental implants, the influence of its diameter in the fatigue life performance was also studied. This stochastic technique was based on the combination of a probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) and a cumulative damage approach known as B-model. After 6 million of loading cycles, local failure probabilities of 0.3, 0.4 and 0.91 were predicted for the Lifecore, Avinent and GMI implants, respectively (diameter of 3.75mm). The influence of the diameter for the GMI implant was studied and the results predicted a local failure probability of 0.91 and 0.1 for the 3.75mm and 5mm, respectively. In all cases the highest failure probability was located at the upper screw-threads. Therefore, the probabilistic methodology proposed herein may be a useful tool for performing a qualitative comparison between different commercial dental implants. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.

2010-01-01

Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

Optimal Performance Monitoring of Hybrid Mid-Infrared Wavelength MIMO Free Space Optical and RF Wireless Networks in Fading Channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Barnet Michael

An optimal performance monitoring metric for a hybrid free space optical and radio-frequency (RF) wireless network, the Outage Capacity Objective Function, is analytically developed and studied. Current and traditional methods of performance monitoring of both optical and RF wireless networks are centered on measurement of physical layer parameters, the most common being signal-to-noise ratio, error rate, Q factor, and eye diagrams, occasionally combined with link-layer measurements such as data throughput, retransmission rate, and/or lost packet rate. Network management systems frequently attempt to predict or forestall network failures by observing degradations of these parameters and to attempt mitigation (such as offloading traffic, increasing transmitter power, reducing the data rate, or combinations thereof) prior to the failure. These methods are limited by the frequent low sensitivity of the physical layer parameters to the atmospheric optical conditions (measured by optical signal-to-noise ratio) and the radio frequency fading channel conditions (measured by signal-to-interference ratio). As a result of low sensitivity, measurements of this type frequently are unable to predict impending failures sufficiently in advance for the network management system to take corrective action prior to the failure. We derive and apply an optimal measure of hybrid network performance based on the outage capacity of the hybrid optical and RF channel, the outage capacity objective function. The objective function provides high sensitivity and reliable failure prediction, and considers both the effects of atmospheric optical impairments on the performance of the free space optical segment as well as the effect of RF channel impairments on the radio frequency segment. The radio frequency segment analysis considers the three most common RF channel fading statistics: Rayleigh, Ricean, and Nakagami-m. The novel application of information theory to the underlying physics of the gamma-gamma optical channel and radio fading channels in determining the joint hybrid channel outage capacity provides the best performance estimate under any given set of operating conditions. It is shown that, unlike traditional physical layer performance monitoring techniques, the objective function based upon the outage capacity of the hybrid channel at any combination of OSNR and SIR, is able to predict channel degradation and failure well in advance of the actual outage. An outage in the information-theoretic definition occurs when the offered load exceeds the outage capacity under the current conditions of OSNR and SIR. The optical channel is operated at the "long" mid-infrared wavelength of 10000 nm. which provides improved resistance to scattering compared to shorter wavelengths such as 1550 nm.

Tissue Doppler Imaging in Coronary Artery Diseases and Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Correale, Michele; Totaro, Antonio; Ieva, Riccardo; Ferraretti, Armando; Musaico, Francesco; Biase, Matteo Di

2012-01-01

Recent studies have explored the prognostic role of TDI-derived parameters in major cardiac diseases, such as coronary artery disease (CAD) and heart failure (HF). In these conditions, myocardial mitral annular systolic (S’) and early diastolic (E’) velocities have been shown to predict mortality or cardiovascular events. In heart failure non invasive assessment of LV diastolic pressure by transmitral to mitral annular early diastolic velocity ratio (E/E’) is a strong prognosticator, especially when E/E’ is > or =15. Moreover, other parameters derived by TDI, as cardiac time intervals and Myocardial Performance Index, might play a role in the prognostic stratification in CAD and HF. Recently, a three-dimensional (3-D) TDI imaging modality, triplane TDI, has become available, and this allows calculation of 3-Dvolumes and LV ejection fraction. We present a brief update of TDI. PMID:22845815

A computer model of the pediatric circulatory system for testing pediatric assist devices.

PubMed

Giridharan, Guruprasad A; Koenig, Steven C; Mitchell, Michael; Gartner, Mark; Pantalos, George M

2007-01-01

Lumped parameter computer models of the pediatric circulatory systems for 1- and 4-year-olds were developed to predict hemodynamic responses to mechanical circulatory support devices. Model parameters, including resistance, compliance and volume, were adjusted to match hemodynamic pressure and flow waveforms, pressure-volume loops, percent systole, and heart rate of pediatric patients (n = 6) with normal ventricles. Left ventricular failure was modeled by adjusting the time-varying compliance curve of the left heart to produce aortic pressures and cardiac outputs consistent with those observed clinically. Models of pediatric continuous flow (CF) and pulsatile flow (PF) ventricular assist devices (VAD) and intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) were developed and integrated into the heart failure pediatric circulatory system models. Computer simulations were conducted to predict acute hemodynamic responses to PF and CF VAD operating at 50%, 75% and 100% support and 2.5 and 5 ml IABP operating at 1:1 and 1:2 support modes. The computer model of the pediatric circulation matched the human pediatric hemodynamic waveform morphology to within 90% and cardiac function parameters with 95% accuracy. The computer model predicted PF VAD and IABP restore aortic pressure pulsatility and variation in end-systolic and end-diastolic volume, but diminish with increasing CF VAD support.

The spatial-temporal evolution law of microseismic activities in the failure process of deep rock masses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan-hui, Li; Gang, Lei; Shi-da, Xu; Da-wei, Wu

2018-07-01

Under high stress and blasting disturbance, the failure of deep rock masses is a complex, dynamic evolutionary process. To reveal the relation between macroscopic failure of deep rock masses and spatial-temporal evolution law of micro-cracking within, the initiation, extension, and connection of micro-cracks under blasting disturbance and the deformation and failure mechanism of deep rock masses were studied. The investigation was carried out using the microseismic (MS) monitoring system established in the deep mining area of Ashele Copper Mine (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China). The results showed that the failure of the deep rock masses is a dynamic process accompanied with stress release and stress adjustment. It is not only related to the blasting-based mining, but also associated with zones of stress concentration formed due to the mining. In that space, the concentrated area in the cloud chart for the distribution of MS event density before failure of the rocks shows the basically same pattern with the damaged rocks obtained through scanning of mined-out areas, which indicates that the cloud chart can be used to determine potential risk areas of rocks in the spatial domain. In the time domain, relevant parameters of MS events presented different changes before the failure of the rocks: the energy index decreased while the cumulative apparent volume gradually increased, the magnitude distribution of microseismic events decreased rapidly, and the fractal dimension decreased at first and then remained stable. This demonstrates that the different changes in relevant MS parameters allow researchers to predict the failure time of the rocks. By analysing the dynamic evolution process of the failure of the deep rock masses, areas at potential risk can be predicted spatially and temporally. The result provides guidance for those involved in the safe production and management of underground engineering and establishes a theoretical basis for the study on the stability of deep rock masses.

Analysis of Factors Affecting the Performance of RLV Thrust Cell Liners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Steven M. (Technical Monitor); Butler, Daniel T., Jr.; Pinders, Marek-Jerzy

2004-01-01

The reusable launch vehicle (RLV) thrust cell liner, or thrust chamber, is a critical component of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME). It is designed to operate in some of the most severe conditions seen in engineering practice. This requirement, in conjunction with experimentally observed 'dog-house' failure modes characterized by bulging and thinning of the cooling channel wall, provides the motivation to study the factors that influence RLV thrust cell liner performance. Factors or parameters believed to be directly related to the observed characteristic deformation modes leading to failure under in-service loading conditions are identified, and subsequently investigated using the cylindrical version of the higher-order theory for functionally graded materials in conjunction with the Robinson's unified viscoplasticity theory and the power-law creep model for modeling the response of the liner s constituents. Configurations are analyzed in which specific modifications in cooling channel wall thickness or constituent materials are made to determine the influence of these parameters on the deformations resulting in the observed failure modes in the outer walls of the cooling channel. The application of thermal barrier coatings and functional grading are also investigated within this context. Comparison of the higher-order theory results based on the Robinson and power-law creep model predictions has demonstrated that, using the available material parameters, the power-law creep model predicts more precisely the experimentally observed deformation leading to the 'dog-house' failure mode for multiple short cycles, while also providing much improved computational efficiency. However, for a single long cycle, both models predict virtually identical deformations. Increasing the power-law creep model coefficients produces appreciable deformations after just one long cycle that would normally be obtained after multiple cycles, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the analysis. This provides a basis for the development of an accelerated modeling procedure to further characterize dog-house deformation modes in RLV thrust cell liners. Additionally, the results presented herein have demonstrated that the mechanism responsible for deformation leading to 'dog-house' failure modes is driven by pressure, creep/relaxation and geometric effects.

Visibility graph analysis of heart rate time series and bio-marker of congestive heart failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaduri, Anirban; Bhaduri, Susmita; Ghosh, Dipak

2017-09-01

Study of RR interval time series for Congestive Heart Failure had been an area of study with different methods including non-linear methods. In this article the cardiac dynamics of heart beat are explored in the light of complex network analysis, viz. visibility graph method. Heart beat (RR Interval) time series data taken from Physionet database [46, 47] belonging to two groups of subjects, diseased (congestive heart failure) (29 in number) and normal (54 in number) are analyzed with the technique. The overall results show that a quantitative parameter can significantly differentiate between the diseased subjects and the normal subjects as well as different stages of the disease. Further, the data when split into periods of around 1 hour each and analyzed separately, also shows the same consistent differences. This quantitative parameter obtained using the visibility graph analysis thereby can be used as a potential bio-marker as well as a subsequent alarm generation mechanism for predicting the onset of Congestive Heart Failure.

Ultimate compression after impact load prediction in graphite/epoxy coupons using neural network and multivariate statistical analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregoire, Alexandre David

2011-07-01

The goal of this research was to accurately predict the ultimate compressive load of impact damaged graphite/epoxy coupons using a Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM) neural network and multivariate statistical regression analysis (MSRA). An optimized use of these data treatment tools allowed the generation of a simple, physically understandable equation that predicts the ultimate failure load of an impacted damaged coupon based uniquely on the acoustic emissions it emits at low proof loads. Acoustic emission (AE) data were collected using two 150 kHz resonant transducers which detected and recorded the AE activity given off during compression to failure of thirty-four impacted 24-ply bidirectional woven cloth laminate graphite/epoxy coupons. The AE quantification parameters duration, energy and amplitude for each AE hit were input to the Kohonen self-organizing map (SOM) neural network to accurately classify the material failure mechanisms present in the low proof load data. The number of failure mechanisms from the first 30% of the loading for twenty-four coupons were used to generate a linear prediction equation which yielded a worst case ultimate load prediction error of 16.17%, just outside of the +/-15% B-basis allowables, which was the goal for this research. Particular emphasis was placed upon the noise removal process which was largely responsible for the accuracy of the results.

Damage assessment and progression in a polyisocyanurate-based continuous swirl mat composite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Worley, Darwell Carlton, II

This research conducted in conjunction with Oak Ridge National Laboratories and the Automotive Composite Consortium, ACC, was motivated by the desire to reduce vehicle weight for increased efficiency. At present, there are no databases of failure mechanisms, experimental procedures to study failure, mathematical expressions for empirical or theoretical prediction of properties of a continuous swirl mat composite, CSMC. Therefore, to contribute to the increased utilization of this class of materials the following research was performed. This research enabled the failure mechanism to be formulated, development of a method to quantify failure based on ultrasonic attenuation maps, and the prediction of the fracture toughness parameter KIC. The use of scanning electron microscopy, light microscopy, and real-time tensile loading showed that the CSMC failed in a brittle mode. These techniques also provided imaging information as to how a dominant crack propagates in the presence of a continuously swirled E-glass mat reinforcement and voids. This evaluation enabled a reconstruction of failure in order to demonstrate a possible failure mechanism. The aforementioned techniques revealed that the dominant crack follows the fiber/matrix interface, but may be influenced by the presence of voids. Voids have the tendency of luring the growing crack away from the interface. A growing crack would, however, return to a fiber/matrix interface until complete failure occurred. Another aspect of this work was the quantification of progressive damage using ultrasound. Comparisons were made between ultrasonic attenuation maps for unloaded and sequentially loaded specimens. The sequential loads were applied at different percentages of the ultimate tensile strength, UTS. This technique provided attenuation maps for a series of specimens with a controlled degree of damage, which showed an increase in attenuation with an increase in percent UTS. Fracture toughness experiments yielded an average KIC value of 17.1 MPa√m, while the prediction of the fracture toughness parameter, KIC, was achieved by combining K-solution expressions for in-line and parallel crack configurations while evaluating the needed stress, sigma, using of the "Rule of Mixtures". The average void length was used as the crack length, which was obtained by light microscopy in conjunction with NIHTM software. The predicted KIC value at 40% glass fiber and void orientations of 45°, 30° and 25° was 11.4 MPa√m, 17.0 MPa√m and 18.6 MPa√m, respectively.

Application of all relevant feature selection for failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paja, W.; Wrzesień, M.; Niemiec, R.; Rudnicki, W. R.

2015-07-01

The climate models are extremely complex pieces of software. They reflect best knowledge on physical components of the climate, nevertheless, they contain several parameters, which are too weakly constrained by observations, and can potentially lead to a crash of simulation. Recently a study by Lucas et al. (2013) has shown that machine learning methods can be used for predicting which combinations of parameters can lead to crash of simulation, and hence which processes described by these parameters need refined analyses. In the current study we reanalyse the dataset used in this research using different methodology. We confirm the main conclusion of the original study concerning suitability of machine learning for prediction of crashes. We show, that only three of the eight parameters indicated in the original study as relevant for prediction of the crash are indeed strongly relevant, three other are relevant but redundant, and two are not relevant at all. We also show that the variance due to split of data between training and validation sets has large influence both on accuracy of predictions and relative importance of variables, hence only cross-validated approach can deliver robust prediction of performance and relevance of variables.

Predicting the Probability of Failure of Cementitious Sewer Pipes Using Stochastic Finite Element Method

PubMed Central

Alani, Amir M.; Faramarzi, Asaad

2015-01-01

In this paper, a stochastic finite element method (SFEM) is employed to investigate the probability of failure of cementitious buried sewer pipes subjected to combined effect of corrosion and stresses. A non-linear time-dependant model is used to determine the extent of concrete corrosion. Using the SFEM, the effects of different random variables, including loads, pipe material, and corrosion on the remaining safe life of the cementitious sewer pipes are explored. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the merit of the proposed SFEM in evaluating the effects of the contributing parameters upon the probability of failure of cementitious sewer pipes. The developed SFEM offers many advantages over traditional probabilistic techniques since it does not use any empirical equations in order to determine failure of pipes. The results of the SFEM can help the concerning industry (e.g., water companies) to better plan their resources by providing accurate prediction for the remaining safe life of cementitious sewer pipes. PMID:26068092

Susceptible alleles of the CD40 and CTLA-4 genes are not associated with the relapse after antithyroid withdrawal in Graves' disease.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Won; Park, Young Joo; Kim, Tae Yong; Park, Do Joon; Park, Kyong Soo; Cho, Bo Youn

2007-12-01

In this study, we investigated whether the CD40 or cytotoxic T lymphocyte-associated molecules-4 (CTLA-4) polymorphisms, which are associated with the susceptibility of Graves' disease (GD), can predict the clinical outcome after antithyroid drug (ATD) withdrawal. All patients with GD were treated with ATD. GD patients were divided into two groups: remission or failure. The remission group was defined as patients who maintained a euthyroid state for 1 year after ATD withdrawal. The failure group was defined as patients who relapsed within 1 year after the discontinuation of ATD or who could not discontinue their ATD treatment within 24 months. The rate of treatment failure after ATD withdrawal was 72.2%. For the susceptible genes, the CC genotype in the CD40, the GG genotype in the CTLA-4 exon 1, and the CC genotype in the CTLA-4 promoter region have shown no significant association with a clinical outcome after ATD withdrawal. However, clinical parameters, such as male gender, severe thyrotoxicosis, high thyroid-stimulating hormone-binding inhibitory immunoglobulin value, and a large goiter, were related to treatment failure. These findings suggest that the genetic markers associated with the development of GD cannot be used to predict the relapse of GD patients in place of clinical parameters.

Failure analysis of composite laminates including biaxial compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tennyson, R. C.; Elliott, W. G.

1983-01-01

This report describes a continued effort on the development and application of the tensor polynomial failure criterion for composite laminate analysis. In particular, emphasis is given to the design, construction and testing of a cross-beam laminate configuration to obtain "pure' biaxial compression failure. The purpose of this test case was to provide to permit "closure' of the cubic form of the failure surface in the 1-2 compression-compression quadrant. This resulted in a revised set of interaction strength parameters and the construction of a failure surface which can be used with confidence for strength predictions, assuming a plane stress state exists. Furthermore, the problem of complex conjugate roots which can occur in some failure regions is addressed and an "engineering' interpretation is provided. Results are presented illustrating this behavior and the methodology for overcoming this problem is discussed.

Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation predicts short-term prognosis in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

PubMed

Gao, S; Sun, F-K; Fan, Y-C; Shi, C-H; Zhang, Z-H; Wang, L-Y; Wang, K

2015-08-01

Glutathione-S-transferase P1 (GSTP1) methylation has been demonstrated to be associated with oxidative stress induced liver damage in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF). To evaluate the methylation level of GSTP1 promoter in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and determine its predictive value for prognosis. One hundred and five patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, 86 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 30 healthy controls (HC) were retrospectively enrolled. GSTP1 methylation level in peripheral mononuclear cells (PBMC) was detected by MethyLight. Clinical and laboratory parameters were obtained. GSTP1 methylation levels were significantly higher in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (median 16.84%, interquartile range 1.83-59.05%) than those with CHB (median 1.25%, interquartile range 0.48-2.47%; P < 0.01) and HC (median 0.80%, interquartile range 0.67-1.27%; P < 0.01). In acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure group, nonsurvivors showed significantly higher GSTP1 methylation levels (P < 0.05) than survivors. GSTP1 methylation level was significantly correlated with total bilirubin (r = 0.29, P < 0.01), prothrombin time activity (r = -0.24, P = 0.01) and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (r = 0.26, P = 0.01). When used to predict 1- or 2-month mortality of acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure, GSTP1 methylation showed significantly better predictive value than MELD score [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.89 vs. 0.72, P < 0.01; AUC 0.83 vs. 0.70, P < 0.05 respectively]. Meanwhile, patients with GSTP1 methylation levels above the cut-off points showed significantly poorer survival than those below (P < 0.05). Aberrant GSTP1 promoter methylation exists in acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure and shows high predictive value for short-term mortality. It might serve as a potential prognostic marker for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of Fracture Initiation in Hot Compression of Burn-Resistant Ti-35V-15Cr-0.3Si-0.1C Alloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Saifei; Zeng, Weidong; Zhou, Dadi; Lai, Yunjin

2015-11-01

An important concern in hot working of metals is whether the desired deformation can be accomplished without fracture of the material. This paper builds a fracture prediction model to predict fracture initiation in hot compression of a burn-resistant beta-stabilized titanium alloy Ti-35V-15Cr-0.3Si-0.1C using a combined approach of upsetting experiments, theoretical failure criteria and finite element (FE) simulation techniques. A series of isothermal compression experiments on cylindrical specimens were conducted in temperature range of 900-1150 °C, strain rate of 0.01-10 s-1 first to obtain fracture samples and primary reduction data. Based on that, a comparison of eight commonly used theoretical failure criteria was made and Oh criterion was selected and coded into a subroutine. FE simulation of upsetting experiments on cylindrical specimens was then performed to determine the fracture threshold values of Oh criterion. By building a correlation between threshold values and the deforming parameters (temperature and strain rate, or Zener-Hollomon parameter), a new fracture prediction model based on Oh criterion was established. The new model shows an exponential decay relationship between threshold values and Zener-Hollomon parameter (Z), and the relative error of the model is less than 15%. This model was then applied successfully in the cogging of Ti-35V-15Cr-0.3Si-0.1C billet.

Tensile Strength of Carbon Nanotubes Under Realistic Temperature and Strain Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wei, Chen-Yu; Cho, Kyeong-Jae; Srivastava, Deepak; Biegel, Bryan (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Strain rate and temperature dependence of the tensile strength of single-wall carbon nanotubes has been investigated with molecular dynamics simulations. The tensile failure or yield strain is found to be strongly dependent on the temperature and strain rate. A transition state theory based predictive model is developed for the tensile failure of nanotubes. Based on the parameters fitted from high-strain rate and temperature dependent molecular dynamics simulations, the model predicts that a defect free micrometer long single-wall nanotube at 300 K, stretched with a strain rate of 1%/hour, fails at about 9 plus or minus 1% tensile strain. This is in good agreement with recent experimental findings.

The use of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic principles to predict clinical outcome in paediatric acute otitis media.

PubMed

Dagan, Ron

2007-12-01

Double tympanocentesis studies of children with acute otitis media, carried out over an 11-year period, were used to confirm that pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) parameters can be used as predictors of the bacteriological and clinical efficacy of antimicrobial agents. Predicted susceptibilities of common respiratory pathogens, such as Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae, were compared with the bacteriological outcome of treatment in which the high-dose formulation of amoxicillin/clavulanate (90mg/kg/day) given twice daily achieved the greatest bacteriological eradication rates for an oral agent. Further analysis of the data has indicated that failure to eradicate bacteria from the middle ear fluid is strongly correlated with clinical failure.

Parametric Studies Of Failure Mechanisms In Thermal Barrier Coatings During Thermal Cycling Using FEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivathsa, B.; Das, D. K.

2015-12-01

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) are widely used on different hot components of gas turbine engines such as blades and vanes. Although, several mechanisms for the failure of the TBCs have been suggested, it is largely accepted that the durability of these coatings is primarily determined by the residual stresses that are developed during the thermal cycling. In the present study, the residual stress build-up in an electron beam physical vapour deposition (EB-PVD) based TBCs on a coupon during thermal cycling has been studied by varying three parameters such as the cooling rate, TBC thickness and substrate thickness. A two-dimensional thermomechanical generalized plane strain finite element simulations have been performed for thousand cycles. It was observed that these variations change the stress profile significantly and the stress severity factor increases non-linearly. Overall, the predictions of the model agree with reported experimental results and help in predicting the failure mechanisms.

Reliability-based management of buried pipelines considering external corrosion defects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miran, Seyedeh Azadeh

Corrosion is one of the main deteriorating mechanisms that degrade the energy pipeline integrity, due to transferring corrosive fluid or gas and interacting with corrosive environment. Corrosion defects are usually detected by periodical inspections using in-line inspection (ILI) methods. In order to ensure pipeline safety, this study develops a cost-effective maintenance strategy that consists of three aspects: corrosion growth model development using ILI data, time-dependent performance evaluation, and optimal inspection interval determination. In particular, the proposed study is applied to a cathodic protected buried steel pipeline located in Mexico. First, time-dependent power-law formulation is adopted to probabilistically characterize growth of the maximum depth and length of the external corrosion defects. Dependency between defect depth and length are considered in the model development and generation of the corrosion defects over time is characterized by the homogenous Poisson process. The growth models unknown parameters are evaluated based on the ILI data through the Bayesian updating method with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique. The proposed corrosion growth models can be used when either matched or non-matched defects are available, and have ability to consider newly generated defects since last inspection. Results of this part of study show that both depth and length growth models can predict damage quantities reasonably well and a strong correlation between defect depth and length is found. Next, time-dependent system failure probabilities are evaluated using developed corrosion growth models considering prevailing uncertainties where three failure modes, namely small leak, large leak and rupture are considered. Performance of the pipeline is evaluated through failure probability per km (or called a sub-system) where each subsystem is considered as a series system of detected and newly generated defects within that sub-system. Sensitivity analysis is also performed to determine to which incorporated parameter(s) in the growth models reliability of the studied pipeline is most sensitive. The reliability analysis results suggest that newly generated defects should be considered in calculating failure probability, especially for prediction of long-term performance of the pipeline and also, impact of the statistical uncertainty in the model parameters is significant that should be considered in the reliability analysis. Finally, with the evaluated time-dependent failure probabilities, a life cycle-cost analysis is conducted to determine optimal inspection interval of studied pipeline. The expected total life-cycle costs consists construction cost and expected costs of inspections, repair, and failure. The repair is conducted when failure probability from any described failure mode exceeds pre-defined probability threshold after each inspection. Moreover, this study also investigates impact of repair threshold values and unit costs of inspection and failure on the expected total life-cycle cost and optimal inspection interval through a parametric study. The analysis suggests that a smaller inspection interval leads to higher inspection costs, but can lower failure cost and also repair cost is less significant compared to inspection and failure costs.

Evaluation of Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction with Early Systolic Dysfunction Using Two-Dimensional Speckle Tracking Echocardiography in Canine Heart Failure Model.

PubMed

Wu, Wei-Chun; Ma, Hong; Xie, Rong-Ai; Gao, Li-Jian; Tang, Yue; Wang, Hao

2016-04-01

This study evaluated the role of two-dimensional speckle tracking echocardiography (2DSTE) for predicting left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction in pacing-induced canine heart failure. Pacing systems were implanted in 8 adult mongrel dogs, and continuous rapid right ventricular pacing (RVP, 240 beats/min) was maintained for 2 weeks. The obtained measurements from 2DSTE included global strain rate during early diastole (SRe) and during late diastole (SRa) in the longitudinal (L-SRe, L-SRa), circumferential (C-SRe, C-SRa), and radial directions (R-SRe, R-SRa). Changes in heart morphology were observed by light microscopy and transmission electron microscopy at 2 weeks. The onset of LV diastolic dysfunction with early systolic dysfunction occurred 3 days after RVP initiation. Most of the strain rate imaging indices were altered at 1 or 3 days after RVP onset and continued to worsen until heart failure developed. Light and transmission electron microscopy showed myocardial vacuolar degeneration and mitochondrial swelling in the left ventricular at 2 weeks after RVP onset. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed that parameters of conventional echocardiography and 2DSTE showed moderate correlation with LV pressure parameters, including E/Esep' (r = 0.58, P < 0.01), L-SRe (r = -0.58, P < 0.01), E/L-SRe (r = 0.65, P < 0.01), and R-SRe (r = 0.53, P < 0.01). ROC curves analysis showed that these indices of conventional echocardiography and strain rate imaging could effectively predict LV diastolic dysfunction (area under the curve: E/Esep' 0.78; L-SRe 0.84; E/L-SRe 0.80; R-SRe 0.80). 2DSTE was a sensitive and accurate technique that could be used for predicting LV diastolic dysfunction in canine heart failure model. © 2015, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes.

PubMed

Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

2014-11-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data.

A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

PubMed Central

Milledge, David G; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim A; Densmore, Alexander L; Dietrich, William E

2014-01-01

The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but simple enough to be applied over entire watersheds. It accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of potential landslides using earth pressure theory and by representing root reinforcement as an exponential function of soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are well constrained by field data. The model predicts failure for the observed scar geometry and finds that larger or smaller conformal shapes are more stable. Numerical experiments demonstrate that friction on the boundaries of a potential landslide increases considerably the magnitude of lateral reinforcement, relative to that due to root cohesion alone. We find that there is a critical depth in both cohesive and cohesionless soils, resulting in a minimum size for failure, which is consistent with observed size-frequency distributions. Furthermore, the differential resistance on the boundaries of a potential landslide is responsible for a critical landslide shape which is longer than it is wide, consistent with observed aspect ratios. Finally, our results show that minimum size increases as approximately the square of failure surface depth, consistent with observed landslide depth-area data. PMID:26213663

Retrograde pyelography predicts retrograde ureteral stenting failure and reduces unnecessary stenting trials in patients with advanced non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung Han; Park, Boram; Joo, Jungnam; Joung, Jae Young; Seo, Ho Kyung; Chung, Jinsoo; Lee, Kang Hyun

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure in patients with non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction. Materials and methods Between 2005 and 2014, medical records of 284 malignant ureteral obstruction patients with 712 retrograde ureteral stent trials including 63 (22.2%) having bilateral malignant ureteral obstruction were retrospectively reviewed. Retrograde ureteral stent failure was defined as the inability to place ureteral stents by cystoscopy, recurrent stent obstruction within one month, or non-relief of azotemia within one week from the prior retrograde ureteral stent. The clinicopathological parameters and first retrograde pyelographic findings were analyzed to investigate the predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure and conversion to percutaneous nephrostomy in multivariate analysis with a statistical significance of p < 0.05. Results Retrograde ureteral stent failure was detected in 14.1% of patients. The mean number of retrograde ureteral stent placements and indwelling duration of the ureteral stents were 2.5 ± 2.6 times and 8.6 ± 4.0 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses identified several specific RGP findings as significant predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure (p < 0.05). The significant retrograde pyelographic findings included grade 4 hydronephrosis (hazard ratio 4.10, 95% confidence interval 1.39–12.09), irreversible ureteral kinking (hazard ratio 2.72, confidence interval 1.03–7.18), presence of bladder invasion (hazard ratio 4.78, confidence interval 1.81–12.63), and multiple lesions of ureteral stricture (hazard ratio 3.46, confidence interval 1.35–8.83) (p < 0.05). Conclusion Retrograde pyelography might prevent unnecessary and ineffective retrograde ureteral stent trials in patients with advanced non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction. PMID:28931043

Numerical Model for the Study of the Strength and Failure Modes of Rock Containing Non-Persistent Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, Maximiliano R.; Van Sint Jan, Michel; Lorig, Loren

2016-04-01

The mechanical behavior of rock containing parallel non-persistent joint sets was studied using a numerical model. The numerical analysis was performed using the discrete element software UDEC. The use of fictitious joints allowed the inclusion of non-persistent joints in the model domain and simulating the progressive failure due to propagation of existing fractures. The material and joint mechanical parameters used in the model were obtained from experimental results. The results of the numerical model showed good agreement with the strength and failure modes observed in the laboratory. The results showed the large anisotropy in the strength resulting from variation of the joint orientation. Lower strength of the specimens was caused by the coalescence of fractures belonging to parallel joint sets. A correlation was found between geometrical parameters of the joint sets and the contribution of the joint sets strength in the global strength of the specimen. The results suggest that for the same dip angle with respect to the principal stresses; the uniaxial strength depends primarily on the joint spacing and the angle between joints tips and less on the length of the rock bridges (persistency). A relation between joint geometrical parameters was found from which the resulting failure mode can be predicted.

Application of all-relevant feature selection for the failure analysis of parameter-induced simulation crashes in climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paja, Wiesław; Wrzesien, Mariusz; Niemiec, Rafał; Rudnicki, Witold R.

2016-03-01

Climate models are extremely complex pieces of software. They reflect the best knowledge on the physical components of the climate; nevertheless, they contain several parameters, which are too weakly constrained by observations, and can potentially lead to a simulation crashing. Recently a study by Lucas et al. (2013) has shown that machine learning methods can be used for predicting which combinations of parameters can lead to the simulation crashing and hence which processes described by these parameters need refined analyses. In the current study we reanalyse the data set used in this research using different methodology. We confirm the main conclusion of the original study concerning the suitability of machine learning for the prediction of crashes. We show that only three of the eight parameters indicated in the original study as relevant for prediction of the crash are indeed strongly relevant, three others are relevant but redundant and two are not relevant at all. We also show that the variance due to the split of data between training and validation sets has a large influence both on the accuracy of predictions and on the relative importance of variables; hence only a cross-validated approach can deliver a robust prediction of performance and relevance of variables.

Methodology to predict delayed failure due to slow crack growth in ceramic tubular components using data from simple specimens

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadaan, O.M.; Tressler, R.E.

1993-04-01

The methodology to predict the lifetime of sintered [alpha]-silicon carbide (SASC) tubes subjected to slow crack growth (SCG) conditions involved the experimental determination of the SCG parameters of that material and the scaling analysis to project the stress rupture data from small specimens to large components. Dynamic fatigue testing, taking into account the effect of threshold stress intensity factor, of O-ring and compressed C-ring specimens was used to obtain the SCG parameters. These SCG parameters were in excellent agreement with those published in the literature and extracted from stress rupture tests of tensile and bend specimens. Two methods were usedmore » to predict the lifetimes of internally heated and pressurized SASC tubes. The first is a fracture mechanics approach that is well known in the literature. The second method used a scaling analysis in which the stress rupture distribution (lifetime) of any specimen configuration can be predicted from stress rupture data of another.« less

Prognostics using Engineering and Environmental Parameters as Applied to State of Health (SOH) Radionuclide Aerosol Sampler Analyzer (RASA) Real-Time Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchenson, K. D.; Hartley-McBride, S.; Saults, T.; Schmidt, D. P.

2006-05-01

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is composed in part of radionuclide particulate and gas monitoring systems. Monitoring the operational status of these systems is an important aspect of nuclear weapon test monitoring. Quality data, process control techniques, and predictive models are necessary to detect and predict system component failures. Predicting failures in advance provides time to mitigate these failures, thus minimizing operational downtime. The Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) requires IMS radionuclide systems be operational 95 percent of the time. The United States National Data Center (US NDC) offers contributing components to the IMS. This effort focuses on the initial research and process development using prognostics for monitoring and predicting failures of the RASA two (2) days into the future. The predictions, using time series methods, are input to an expert decision system, called SHADES (State of Health Airflow and Detection Expert System). The results enable personnel to make informed judgments about the health of the RASA system. Data are read from a relational database, processed, and displayed to the user in a GIS as a prototype GUI. This procedure mimics the real time application process that could be implemented as an operational system, This initial proof-of-concept effort developed predictive models focused on RASA components for a single site (USP79). Future work shall include the incorporation of other RASA systems, as well as their environmental conditions that play a significant role in performance. Similarly, SHADES currently accommodates specific component behaviors at this one site. Future work shall also include important environmental variables that play an important part of the prediction algorithms.

Quantifying the predictive consequences of model error with linear subspace analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Jeremy T.; Doherty, John E.; Hughes, Joseph D.

2014-01-01

All computer models are simplified and imperfect simulators of complex natural systems. The discrepancy arising from simplification induces bias in model predictions, which may be amplified by the process of model calibration. This paper presents a new method to identify and quantify the predictive consequences of calibrating a simplified computer model. The method is based on linear theory, and it scales efficiently to the large numbers of parameters and observations characteristic of groundwater and petroleum reservoir models. The method is applied to a range of predictions made with a synthetic integrated surface-water/groundwater model with thousands of parameters. Several different observation processing strategies and parameterization/regularization approaches are examined in detail, including use of the Karhunen-Loève parameter transformation. Predictive bias arising from model error is shown to be prediction specific and often invisible to the modeler. The amount of calibration-induced bias is influenced by several factors, including how expert knowledge is applied in the design of parameterization schemes, the number of parameters adjusted during calibration, how observations and model-generated counterparts are processed, and the level of fit with observations achieved through calibration. Failure to properly implement any of these factors in a prediction-specific manner may increase the potential for predictive bias in ways that are not visible to the calibration and uncertainty analysis process.

Assessment of Crack Path Prediction in Non-Proportional Mixed-Mode Fatigue

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Highsmith, Shelby, Jr.; Johnson, Steve; Swanson, Gregory; Sayyah, Tarek; Pettit, Richard

2008-01-01

Non-proportional mixed-mode loading is present in many systems and a growing crack can experience any manner of mixed-mode loading. Prediction of the resulting crack path is important when assessing potential failure modes or when performing a failure investigation. Current crack path selection criteria are presented along with data for Inconel 718 under non-proportional mixed-mode loading. Mixed-mode crack growth can transition between path deflection mechanisms with very different orientations. Non-proportional fatigue loadings lack a single parameter for input to current crack path criteria. Crack growth transitions were observed in proportional and non-proportional FCG tests. Different paths displayed distinct fracture surface morphologies. New crack path drivers & transition criteria must be developed.

A model of the human observer and decision maker

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wewerinke, P. H.

1981-01-01

The decision process is described in terms of classical sequential decision theory by considering the hypothesis that an abnormal condition has occurred by means of a generalized likelihood ratio test. For this, a sufficient statistic is provided by the innovation sequence which is the result of the perception an information processing submodel of the human observer. On the basis of only two model parameters, the model predicts the decision speed/accuracy trade-off and various attentional characteristics. A preliminary test of the model for single variable failure detection tasks resulted in a very good fit of the experimental data. In a formal validation program, a variety of multivariable failure detection tasks was investigated and the predictive capability of the model was demonstrated.

Sensitivity of outflow peaks and flood stages to the selection of dam breach parameters and simulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Krishan P.; Snorrason, Arni

1984-02-01

Important breach parameters were identified and their ranges were estimated from a detailed study of historical earthdam failures due to overtopping. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) and the National Weather Service (NWS) dam breach models were chosen for evaluation and simulation. Both models use similar input data and breach descriptions, but the HEC uses the hydrologic routing method (modified Puls method), whereas the NWS uses the St. Vénant equations for routing. Information on eight dams in Illinois was taken from the Corps of Engineers inspection reports, and surveyed cross-sections of the downstream channels were supplied by the Division of Water Resources of the Illinois Department of Transportation. Various combinations of breach parameters (failure time, TF; depth of overtopping, hf; and breach size, B) were used for breach simulations by both methods with the 1.00PMF, 0.50PMF and 0.25PMF (probable maximum flood) inflow hydrographs. In general, the flood stage profiles predicted by the NWS were smoother and more reasonable than those predicted by the HEC. For channels with relatively steep slopes, the methods compared fairly well, whereas for the channels with mild slope, the HEC model often predicted oscillating, erratic flood stages, mainly due to its inability to route flood waves satisfactorily in non-prismatic channels. The breach outflow peaks are affected significantly by B but less so by hf. The ratio of outflow peak to inflow peak and the effect of TF on outflow decrease as the drainage area above the dam and impounded storage increase. Flood stage profiles predicted with cross-sections taken from 7.5' maps compared favorably with those predicted using surveyed cross-sections. For the range of breach parameters studied, the range of outflow peaks and flood stages downstream from the dam can be determined for regulatory and disaster prevention measures.

A probabilisitic based failure model for components fabricated from anisotropic graphite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Chengfeng

The nuclear moderator for high temperature nuclear reactors are fabricated from graphite. During reactor operations graphite components are subjected to complex stress states arising from structural loads, thermal gradients, neutron irradiation damage, and seismic events. Graphite is a quasi-brittle material. Two aspects of nuclear grade graphite, i.e., material anisotropy and different behavior in tension and compression, are explicitly accounted for in this effort. Fracture mechanic methods are useful for metal alloys, but they are problematic for anisotropic materials with a microstructure that makes it difficult to identify a "critical" flaw. In fact cracking in a graphite core component does not necessarily result in the loss of integrity of a nuclear graphite core assembly. A phenomenological failure criterion that does not rely on flaw detection has been derived that accounts for the material behaviors mentioned. The probability of failure of components fabricated from graphite is governed by the scatter in strength. The design protocols being proposed by international code agencies recognize that design and analysis of reactor core components must be based upon probabilistic principles. The reliability models proposed herein for isotropic graphite and graphite that can be characterized as being transversely isotropic are another set of design tools for the next generation very high temperature reactors (VHTR) as well as molten salt reactors. The work begins with a review of phenomenologically based deterministic failure criteria. A number of this genre of failure models are compared with recent multiaxial nuclear grade failure data. Aspects in each are shown to be lacking. The basic behavior of different failure strengths in tension and compression is exhibited by failure models derived for concrete, but attempts to extend these concrete models to anisotropy were unsuccessful. The phenomenological models are directly dependent on stress invariants. A set of invariants, known as an integrity basis, was developed for a non-linear elastic constitutive model. This integrity basis allowed the non-linear constitutive model to exhibit different behavior in tension and compression and moreover, the integrity basis was amenable to being augmented and extended to anisotropic behavior. This integrity basis served as the starting point in developing both an isotropic reliability model and a reliability model for transversely isotropic materials. At the heart of the reliability models is a failure function very similar in nature to the yield functions found in classic plasticity theory. The failure function is derived and presented in the context of a multiaxial stress space. States of stress inside the failure envelope denote safe operating states. States of stress on or outside the failure envelope denote failure. The phenomenological strength parameters associated with the failure function are treated as random variables. There is a wealth of failure data in the literature that supports this notion. The mathematical integration of a joint probability density function that is dependent on the random strength variables over the safe operating domain defined by the failure function provides a way to compute the reliability of a state of stress in a graphite core component fabricated from graphite. The evaluation of the integral providing the reliability associated with an operational stress state can only be carried out using a numerical method. Monte Carlo simulation with importance sampling was selected to make these calculations. The derivation of the isotropic reliability model and the extension of the reliability model to anisotropy are provided in full detail. Model parameters are cast in terms of strength parameters that can (and have been) characterized by multiaxial failure tests. Comparisons of model predictions with failure data is made and a brief comparison is made to reliability predictions called for in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. Future work is identified that would provide further verification and augmentation of the numerical methods used to evaluate model predictions.

Multi-Dimensional Shallow Landslide Stability Analysis Suitable for Application at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milledge, David; Bellugi, Dino; McKean, Jim; Dietrich, William E.

2013-04-01

Current practice in regional-scale shallow landslide hazard assessment is to adopt a one-dimensional slope stability representation. Such a representation cannot produce discrete landslides and thus cannot make predictions on landslide size. Furthermore, one-dimensional approaches cannot include lateral effects, which are known to be important in defining instability. Here we derive an alternative model that accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of an unstable block of soil. We model boundary frictional resistances using 'at rest' earth pressure on the lateral sides, and 'active' and 'passive' pressure, using the log-spiral method, on the upslope and downslope margins. We represent root reinforcement on each margin assuming that root cohesion declines exponentially with soil depth. We test our model's ability to predict failure of an observed landslide where the relevant parameters are relatively well constrained and find that our model predicts failure at the observed location and predicts that larger or smaller failures conformal to the observed shape are indeed more stable. We use a sensitivity analysis of the model to show that lateral reinforcement sets a minimum landslide size, and that the additional strength at the downslope boundary results in optimal shapes that are longer in the downslope direction. However, reinforcement effects alone cannot fully explain the size or shape distributions of observed landslides, highlighting the importance of the spatial pattern of key parameters (e.g. pore water pressure and soil depth) at the watershed scale. The application of the model at this scale requires an efficient method to find unstable shapes among an exponential number of candidates. In this context, the model allows a more extensive examination of the controls on landslide size, shape and location.

Failure of platelet parameters and biomarkers to correlate platelet function to severity and etiology of heart failure in patients enrolled in the EPCOT trial. With special reference to the Hemodyne hemostatic analyzer. Whole Blood Impedance Aggregometry for the Assessment of Platelet Function in Patients with Congestive Heart Failure.

PubMed

Serebruany, Victor L; McKenzie, Marcus E; Meister, Andrew F; Fuzaylov, Sergey Y; Gurbel, Paul A; Atar, Dan; Gattis, Wendy A; O'Connor, Christopher M

2002-01-01

Data from small studies have suggested the presence of platelet abnormalities in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). We sought to characterize the diagnostic utility of different platelet parameters and platelet-endothelial biomarkers in a random outpatient CHF population investigated in the EPCOT ('Whole Blood Impedance Aggregometry for the Assessment of Platelet Function in Patients with Congestive Heart Failure') Trial. Blood samples were obtained for measurement of platelet contractile force (PCF), whole blood aggregation, shear-induced closure time, expression of glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa, and P-selectin in 100 consecutive patients with CHF. Substantial interindividual variability of platelet characteristics exists in patients with CHF. There were no statistically significant differences when patients were grouped according to incidence of vascular events, emergency revascularization needs, survival, or etiology of heart failure. Aspirin use did not affect instrument readings either. PCF correlates very poorly with whole blood aggregometry (r(2) = 0.023), closure time (r(2) = 0.028), platelet GP IIb/IIIa (r(2) = 0.0028), and P-selectin (r(2) = 0.002) expression. Furthermore, there was no correlation with brain natriuretic peptide concentrations, a marker of severity and prognosis in heart failure reflecting the neurohumoral status. Patients with heart failure enrolled in the EPCOT Trial exhibited a marginal, sometimes oppositely directed change in platelet function, challenging the diagnostic utility of these platelet parameters and biomarkers to serve as useful tools for the identification of platelet abnormalities, for predicting clinical outcomes, or for monitoring antiplatelet strategies in this population. The usefulness of these measurements for assessing platelets in the different clinical settings remains to be explored. Taken together, opposite to our expectations, major clinical characteristics of heart failure did not correlate well with the platelet characteristics investigated in this study. Copyright 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel

Usefulness of anaerobic threshold to peak oxygen uptake ratio to determine the severity and pathophysiological condition of chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Tomono, Junichi; Adachi, Hitoshi; Oshima, Shigeru; Kurabayashi, Masahiko

2016-11-01

Anaerobic threshold (AT) and peak oxygen uptake (V˙O 2 ) are well known as indicators of severity and prognosis of heart failure. Since these parameters are regulated by many factors, multiple organ dysfunction may occur in chronic heart failure, and these two parameters would vary among patients. However, it is not clear whether AT and peak V˙O 2 deteriorate similarly. Therefore, we planned to compare the degree of deterioration of these two parameters using a ratio of AT and peak V˙O 2 (%AT/peak), and evaluated its significance in heart failure subjects. One hundred ninety-four stable heart failure patients who had optimal medical treatment for at least 3 months were enrolled. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing, echocardiography, and blood sampling were examined within one week. Since %AT/peak varied from 50.3% to 108.5%, we divided patients into tertiles of %AT/peak [Group A, 50.1-70.0 (n=112), Group B, 70.1-90.0 (n=64), Group C, 90.1-110.0 (n=18)], and compared factors relating with skeletal muscle and heart failure among these 3 groups. In Group A, ratio of measured AT against predicted value (%AT) and measured peak V˙O 2 against predicted value (%peak V˙O 2 ) were similar (80.3±19.0% and 80.4±17.1%, respectively). Peak V˙O 2 became lower as %AT/peak increased (Group B; 65.6±14.8%, p<0.01 vs. Group A, Group C; 38.3±9.7%, p<0.01 vs. Group B). On the other hand, %AT in Group B (77.1±18.5%) was similar to Group A, and diminished in Group C (58.0±8.2%, p<0.05 vs. Group B). Peak work rate and lean body mass were smaller in Group B than those in Group A. Although, left ventricular ejection fraction and E/E' deteriorated in Group B compared with Group A, plasma B-type natriuretic peptide and estimated glomerular filtration rate stayed constant in Group B and deteriorated in Group C. %AT/peak showed negative correlation with peak V˙O 2 . In chronic heart failure, muscle weakness occurs at an early stage, and this can be evaluated using %AT/peak. Copyright © 2016 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Field Measurement of the Acoustic Nonlinearity Parameter in Turbine Blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, Yolanda L.; Na, Jeong K.; Yost, William T.; Kessel, Gregory L.

2000-01-01

Nonlinear acoustics techniques were used to measure fatigue in turbine blades in a power generation plant. The measurements were made in the field using a reference based measurement technique, and a reference sample previously measured in the laboratory. The acoustic nonlinearity parameter showed significant increase with fatigue in the blades, as indicated by service age and areas of increased stress. The technique shows promise for effectively measuring fatigue in field applications and predicting subsequent failures.

Enhanced methods for determining operational capabilities and support costs of proposed space systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebeling, Charles

1993-01-01

This report documents the work accomplished during the first two years of research to provide support to NASA in predicting operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems. The first year's research developed a methodology for deriving reliability and maintainability (R & M) parameters based upon the use of regression analysis to establish empirical relationships between performance and design specifications and corresponding mean times of failure and repair. The second year focused on enhancements to the methodology, increased scope of the model, and software improvements. This follow-on effort expands the prediction of R & M parameters and their effect on the operations and support of space transportation vehicles to include other system components such as booster rockets and external fuel tanks. It also increases the scope of the methodology and the capabilities of the model as implemented by the software. The focus is on the failure and repair of major subsystems and their impact on vehicle reliability, turn times, maintenance manpower, and repairable spares requirements. The report documents the data utilized in this study, outlines the general methodology for estimating and relating R&M parameters, presents the analyses and results of application to the initial data base, and describes the implementation of the methodology through the use of a computer model. The report concludes with a discussion on validation and a summary of the research findings and results.

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware For Launch Vehicle Reliability Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Al Hassan, Mohammad; Novack, Steven

2015-01-01

Bayesian reliability requires the development of a prior distribution to represent degree of belief about the value of a parameter (such as a component's failure rate) before system specific data become available from testing or operations. Generic failure data are often provided in reliability databases as point estimates (mean or median). A component's failure rate is considered a random variable where all possible values are represented by a probability distribution. The applicability of the generic data source is a significant source of uncertainty that affects the spread of the distribution. This presentation discusses heuristic guidelines for quantifying uncertainty due to generic data applicability when developing prior distributions mainly from reliability predictions.

Investigation into the influence of build parameters on failure of 3D printed parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fornasini, Giacomo

Additive manufacturing, including fused deposition modeling (FDM), is transforming the built world and engineering education. Deep understanding of parts created through FDM technology has lagged behind its adoption in home, work, and academic environments. Properties of parts created from bulk materials through traditional manufacturing are understood well enough to accurately predict their behavior through analytical models. Unfortunately, Additive Manufacturing (AM) process parameters create anisotropy on a scale that fundamentally affects the part properties. Understanding AM process parameters (implemented by program algorithms called slicers) is necessary to predict part behavior. Investigating algorithms controlling print parameters (slicers) revealed stark differences between the generation of part layers. In this work, tensile testing experiments, including a full factorial design, determined that three key factors, width, thickness, infill density, and their interactions, significantly affect the tensile properties of 3D printed test samples.

The application of neural networks to the SSME startup transient

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, Claudia M.; Maul, William A.

1991-01-01

Feedforward neural networks were used to model three parameters during the Space Shuttle Main Engine startup transient. The three parameters were the main combustion chamber pressure, a controlled parameter, the high pressure oxidizer turbine discharge temperature, a redlined parameter, and the high pressure fuel pump discharge pressure, a failure-indicating performance parameter. Network inputs consisted of time windows of data from engine measurements that correlated highly to the modeled parameter. A standard backpropagation algorithm was used to train the feedforward networks on two nominal firings. Each trained network was validated with four additional nominal firings. For all three parameters, the neural networks were able to accurately predict the data in the validation sets as well as the training set.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McAdams, Brian J.; Pearson, Raymond A.

With the continuing trend of decreasing feature sizes in flip-chip assemblies, the reliability tolerance to interfacial flaws is also decreasing. Small-scale disbonds will become more of a concern, pointing to the need for a better understanding of the initiation stage of interfacial delamination. With most accepted adhesion metric methodologies tailored to predict failure under the prior existence of a disbond, the study of the initiation phenomenon is open to development and standardization of new testing procedures. Traditional fracture mechanics approaches are not suitable, as the mathematics assume failure to originate at a disbond or crack tip. Disbond initiation is believedmore » to first occur at free edges and corners, which act as high stress concentration sites and exhibit singular stresses similar to a crack tip, though less severe in intensity. As such, a 'fracture mechanics-like' approach may be employed which defines a material parameter--a critical stress intensity factor (K{sub c})--that can be used to predict when initiation of a disbond at an interface will occur. The factors affecting the adhesion of underfill/polyimide interfaces relevant to flip-chip assemblies were investigated in this study. The study consisted of two distinct parts: a comparison of the initiation and propagation phenomena and a comparison of the relationship between sub-critical and critical initiation of interfacial failure. The initiation of underfill interfacial failure was studied by characterizing failure at a free-edge with a critical stress intensity factor. In comparison with the interfacial fracture toughness testing, it was shown that a good correlation exists between the initiation and propagation of interfacial failures. Such a correlation justifies the continuing use of fracture mechanics to predict the reliability of flip-chip packages. The second aspect of the research involved fatigue testing of tensile butt joint specimens to determine lifetimes at sub-critical load levels. The results display an interfacial strength ranking similar to that observed during monotonic testing. The fatigue results indicate that monotonic fracture mechanics testing may be an adequate screening tool to help predict cyclic underfill failure; however lifetime data is required to predict reliability.« less

Fatigue failure of materials under broad band random vibrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, T. C.; Lanz, R. W.

1971-01-01

The fatigue life of material under multifactor influence of broad band random excitations has been investigated. Parameters which affect the fatigue life are postulated to be peak stress, variance of stress and the natural frequency of the system. Experimental data were processed by the hybrid computer. Based on the experimental results and regression analysis a best predicting model has been found. All values of the experimental fatigue lives are within the 95% confidence intervals of the predicting equation.

Prediction of the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes based on short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

PubMed

Schievink, Bauke; de Zeeuw, Dick; Smink, Paul A; Andress, Dennis; Brennan, John J; Coll, Blai; Correa-Rotter, Ricardo; Hou, Fan Fan; Kohan, Donald; Kitzman, Dalane W; Makino, Hirofumi; Parving, Hans-Henrik; Perkovic, Vlado; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Tobe, Sheldon; Toto, Robert; Hoekman, Jarno; Lambers Heerspink, Hiddo J

2016-05-01

A recent phase II clinical trial (Reducing Residual Albuminuria in Subjects with Diabetes and Nephropathy with AtRasentan trial and an identical trial in Japan (RADAR/JAPAN)) showed that the endothelin A receptor antagonist atrasentan lowers albuminuria, blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin, and increases body weight in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. We previously developed an algorithm, the Parameter Response Efficacy (PRE) score, which translates short-term drug effects into predictions of long-term effects on clinical outcomes. We used the PRE score on data from the RADAR/JAPAN study to predict the effect of atrasentan on renal and heart failure outcomes. We performed a post-hoc analysis of the RADAR/JAPAN randomized clinical trials in which 211 patients with type-2 diabetes and nephropathy were randomly assigned to atrasentan 0.75 mg/day, 1.25 mg/day, or placebo. A PRE score was developed in a background set of completed clinical trials using multivariate Cox models. The score was applied to baseline and week-12 risk marker levels of RADAR/JAPAN participants, to predict atrasentan effects on clinical outcomes. Outcomes were defined as doubling serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease and hospitalization for heart failure. The PRE score predicted renal risk changes of -23% and -30% for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day, respectively. PRE scores also predicted a small non-significant increase in heart failure risk for atrasentan 0.75 and 1.25 mg/day (+2% vs. +7%). Selecting patients with >30% albuminuria reduction from baseline (responders) improved renal outcome to almost 50% risk reduction, whereas non-responders showed no renal benefit. Based on the RADAR/JAPAN study, with short-term changes in risk markers, atrasentan is expected to decrease renal risk without increased risk of heart failure. Within this population albuminuria responders appear to contribute to the predicted improvements, whereas non-responders showed no benefit. The ongoing hard outcome trial (SONAR) in type 2 diabetic patients with >30% albuminuria reduction to atrasentan will allow us to assess the validity of these predictions. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

PubMed

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salem, Jonathan A.; Nemeth, Noel N.; Powers, Lynn M.; Choi, Sung R.

1995-01-01

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Modelling Wind Turbine Failures based on Weather Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reder, Maik; Melero, Julio J.

2017-11-01

A large proportion of the overall costs of a wind farm is directly related to operation and maintenance (O&M) tasks. By applying predictive O&M strategies rather than corrective approaches these costs can be decreased significantly. Here, especially wind turbine (WT) failure models can help to understand the components’ degradation processes and enable the operators to anticipate upcoming failures. Usually, these models are based on the age of the systems or components. However, latest research shows that the on-site weather conditions also affect the turbine failure behaviour significantly. This study presents a novel approach to model WT failures based on the environmental conditions to which they are exposed to. The results focus on general WT failures, as well as on four main components: gearbox, generator, pitch and yaw system. A penalised likelihood estimation is used in order to avoid problems due to for example highly correlated input covariates. The relative importance of the model covariates is assessed in order to analyse the effect of each weather parameter on the model output.

Technical Complications during Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation and Their Relevance Predicting a System-Exchange – Retrospective Analysis of 265 Cases

PubMed Central

Lubnow, Matthias; Philipp, Alois; Foltan, Maik; Bull Enger, Tone; Lunz, Dirk; Bein, Thomas; Haneya, Assad; Schmid, Christof; Riegger, Günter; Müller, Thomas; Lehle, Karla

2014-01-01

Objectives Technical complications are a known hazard in veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (vvECMO). Identifying these complications and predictive factors indicating a developing system-exchange was the goal of the study. Methods Retrospective study on prospectively collected data of technical complications including 265 adult patients (Regensburg ECMO Registry, 2009-2013) with acute respiratory failure treated with vvECMO. Alterations in blood flow resistance, gas transfer capability, hemolysis, coagulation and hemostasis parameters were evaluated in conjunction with a system-exchange in all patients with at least one exchange (n = 83). Results Values presented as median (interquartile range). Patient age was 50(36–60) years, the SOFA score 11(8–14.3) and the Murray lung injury Score 3.33(3.3–3.7). Cumulative ECMO support time 3411 days, 9(6–15) days per patient. Mechanical failure of the blood pump (n = 5), MO (n = 2) or cannula (n = 1) accounted for 10% of the exchanges. Acute clot formation within the pump head (visible clots, increase in plasma free hemoglobin (frHb), serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), n = 13) and MO (increase in pressure drop across the MO, n = 16) required an urgent system-exchange, of which nearly 50% could be foreseen by measuring the parameters mentioned below. Reasons for an elective system-exchange were worsening of gas transfer capability (n = 10) and device-related coagulation disorders (n = 32), either local fibrinolysis in the MO due to clot formation (increased D-dimers [DD]), decreased platelet count; n = 24), or device-induced hyperfibrinolysis (increased DD, decreased fibrinogen [FG], decreased platelet count, diffuse bleeding tendency; n = 8), which could be reversed after system-exchange. Four MOs were exchanged due to suspicion of infection. Conclusions The majority of ECMO system-exchanges could be predicted by regular inspection of the complete ECMO circuit, evaluation of gas exchange, pressure drop across the MO and laboratory parameters (DD, FG, platelets, LDH, frHb). These parameters should be monitored in the daily routine to reduce the risk of unexpected ECMO failure. PMID:25464516

Life prediction and reliability assessment of lithium secondary batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eom, Seung-Wook; Kim, Min-Kyu; Kim, Ick-Jun; Moon, Seong-In; Sun, Yang-Kook; Kim, Hyun-Soo

Reliability assessment of lithium secondary batteries was mainly considered. Shape parameter (β) and scale parameter (η) were calculated from experimental data based on cycle life test. We also examined safety characteristics of lithium secondary batteries. As proposed by IEC 62133 (2002), we had performed all of the safety/abuse tests such as 'mechanical abuse tests', 'environmental abuse tests', 'electrical abuse tests'. This paper describes the cycle life of lithium secondary batteries, FMEA (failure modes and effects analysis) and the safety/abuse tests we had performed.

Qualitative and temporal reasoning in engine behavior analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dietz, W. E.; Stamps, M. E.; Ali, M.

1987-01-01

Numerical simulation models, engine experts, and experimental data are used to generate qualitative and temporal representations of abnormal engine behavior. Engine parameters monitored during operation are used to generate qualitative and temporal representations of actual engine behavior. Similarities between the representations of failure scenarios and the actual engine behavior are used to diagnose fault conditions which have already occurred, or are about to occur; to increase the surveillance by the monitoring system of relevant engine parameters; and to predict likely future engine behavior.

Evaluation of strength and failure of brittle rock containing initial cracks under lithospheric conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiaozhao; Qi, Chengzhi; Shao, Zhushan; Ma, Chao

2018-02-01

Natural brittle rock contains numerous randomly distributed microcracks. Crack initiation, growth, and coalescence play a predominant role in evaluation for the strength and failure of brittle rocks. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the strength and failure of brittle rocks containing initial microcracks. The formulation of this method is based on an improved wing crack model and a suggested micro-macro relation. In this improved wing crack model, the parameter of crack angle is especially introduced as a variable, and the analytical stress-crack relation considering crack angle effect is obtained. Coupling the proposed stress-crack relation and the suggested micro-macro relation describing the relation between crack growth and axial strain, the stress-strain constitutive relation is obtained to predict the rock strength and failure. Considering different initial microcrack sizes, friction coefficients and confining pressures, effects of crack angle on tensile wedge force acting on initial crack interface are studied, and effects of crack angle on stress-strain constitutive relation of rocks are also analyzed. The strength and crack initiation stress under different crack angles are discussed, and the value of most disadvantaged angle triggering crack initiation and rock failure is founded. The analytical results are similar to the published study results. Rationality of this proposed analytical method is verified.

A Prospective Evaluation of High-Resolution CT Parameters in Predicting Extracorporeal Shockwave Lithotripsy Success for Upper Urinary Tract Calculi.

PubMed

Abdelhamid, Mahmoud; Mosharafa, Ashraf A; Ibrahim, Hamdy; Selim, Hany M; Hamed, Mohamed; Elghoneimy, Mohamed N; Salem, Hosny K; Abdelazim, Mohamed S; Badawy, Hesham

2016-11-01

To evaluate the ability of noncontrast CT parameters (stone size, stone attenuation, and skin-to-stone distance [SSD]) to predict the outcome of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) in a prospective cohort of patients with renal and upper ureteric stones. Patients with stones 5 to 20 mm were prospectively enrolled from 2011 to 2014. Patients had NCCT with recording of stone size, stone mean attenuation, and SSD, as well as various stone and patient parameters. The numbers of needed sessions as well as the final outcome were determined, with SWL failure defined as residual fragments >3 mm. Predictors of SWL failure were assessed by multiple regression analysis. Two hundred twenty patients (mean ± standard deviation [SD] age 41.5 ± 12.4 years) underwent SWL. Mean ± SD stone size was 11.3 ± 4.1 mm, while mean ± SD stone attenuation was 795.1 ± 340.4 HU. Mean ± SD SSD was 9.4 ± 2.1 cm. The average number of sessions was 1.64. SWL was effective in 186 (84.5%) patients (group A), while 34 (15.5%) patients had significant residual fragments (>3 mm). On univariate analysis, predictors of SWL failure included stone attenuation >1000 HU, older age, higher body mass index, higher attenuation value, larger stone size, and longer SSD. Increased SSD and higher stone attenuation retained their significance as independent predictors of SWL failure (p < 0.05) on multiple regression analysis both after first session and as final SWL outcome. A positive correlation was found between number of SWL sessions and mean stone attenuation (r = 0.6, p < 0.001) and SSD (r = 4, p < 0.001). Stone mean attenuation and SSD on noncontrast CT are significant independent predictors of SWL outcome in patients with renal and ureteric stones. These parameters should be included in clinical decision algorithms for patients with urolithiasis. For patients with stones having mean attenuation of >1000 HU and/or large SSDs, alternatives to SWL should be considered.

Heterogeneity: The key to forecasting material failure?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasseur, J.; Wadsworth, F. B.; Lavallée, Y.; Dingwell, D. B.

2014-12-01

Empirical mechanistic models have been applied to the description of the stress and strain rate upon failure for heterogeneous materials. The behaviour of porous rocks and their analogous two-phase viscoelastic suspensions are particularly well-described by such models. Nevertheless, failure cannot yet be predicted forcing a reliance on other empirical prediction tools such as the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Measurable, accelerating rates of physical signals (e.g., seismicity and deformation) preceding failure are often used as proxies for damage accumulation in the FFM. Previous studies have already statistically assessed the applicability and performance of the FFM, but none (to the best of our knowledge) has done so in terms of intrinsic material properties. Here we use a rheological standard glass, which has been powdered and then sintered for different times (up to 32 hours) at high temperature (675°C) in order to achieve a sample suite with porosities in the range of 0.10-0.45 gas volume fraction. This sample suite was then subjected to mechanical tests in a uniaxial press at a constant strain rate of 10-3 s-1 and a temperature in the region of the glass transition. A dual acoustic emission (AE) rig has been employed to test the success of the FFM in these materials of systematically varying porosity. The pore-emanating crack model describes well the peak stress at failure in the elastic regime for these materials. We show that the FFM predicts failure within 0-15% error at porosities >0.2. However, when porosities are <0.2, the forecast error associated with predicting the failure time increases to >100%. We interpret these results as a function of the low efficiency with which strain energy can be released in the scenario where there are few or no heterogeneities from which cracks can propagate. These observations shed light on questions surrounding the variable efficacy of the FFM applied to active volcanoes. In particular, they provide a systematic demonstration of the fact that a good understanding of the material properties is required. Thus, we wish to emphasize the need for a better coupling of empirical failure forecasting models with mechanical parameters, such as failure criteria for heterogeneous materials, and point to the implications of this for a broad range of material-based disciplines.

Lifetime prediction and reliability estimation methodology for Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators by gaseous contamination accelerated degradation testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Fubin; Tan, Yuanyuan; Jiang, Zhenhua; Chen, Xun; Wu, Yinong; Zhao, Peng

2017-12-01

Lifetime and reliability are the two performance parameters of premium importance for modern space Stirling-type pulse tube refrigerators (SPTRs), which are required to operate in excess of 10 years. Demonstration of these parameters provides a significant challenge. This paper proposes a lifetime prediction and reliability estimation method that utilizes accelerated degradation testing (ADT) for SPTRs related to gaseous contamination failure. The method was experimentally validated via three groups of gaseous contamination ADT. First, the performance degradation model based on mechanism of contamination failure and material outgassing characteristics of SPTRs was established. Next, a preliminary test was performed to determine whether the mechanism of contamination failure of the SPTRs during ADT is consistent with normal life testing. Subsequently, the experimental program of ADT was designed for SPTRs. Then, three groups of gaseous contamination ADT were performed at elevated ambient temperatures of 40 °C, 50 °C, and 60 °C, respectively and the estimated lifetimes of the SPTRs under normal condition were obtained through acceleration model (Arrhenius model). The results show good fitting of the degradation model with the experimental data. Finally, we obtained the reliability estimation of SPTRs through using the Weibull distribution. The proposed novel methodology enables us to take less than one year time to estimate the reliability of the SPTRs designed for more than 10 years.

TEXCAD: Textile Composite Analysis for Design. Version 1.0: User's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naik, Rajiv A.

1994-01-01

The Textile Composite Analysis for Design (TEXCAD) code provides the materials/design engineer with a user-friendly desktop computer (IBM PC compatible or Apple Macintosh) tool for the analysis of a wide variety of fabric reinforced woven and braided composites. It can be used to calculate overall thermal and mechanical properties along with engineering estimates of damage progression and strength. TEXCAD also calculates laminate properties for stacked, oriented fabric constructions. It discretely models the yarn centerline paths within the textile repeating unit cell (RUC) by assuming sinusoidal undulations at yarn cross-over points and uses a yarn discretization scheme (which subdivides each yarn not smaller, piecewise straight yarn slices) together with a 3-D stress averaging procedure to compute overall stiffness properties. In the calculations for strength, it uses a curved beam-on-elastic foundation model for yarn undulating regions together with an incremental approach in which stiffness properties for the failed yarn slices are reduced based on the predicted yarn slice failure mode. Nonlinear shear effects and nonlinear geometric effects can be simulated. Input to TEXCAD consists of: (1) materials parameters like impregnated yarn and resin properties such moduli, Poisson's ratios, coefficients of thermal expansion, nonlinear parameters, axial failure strains and in-plane failure stresses; and (2) fabric parameters like yarn sizes, braid angle, yarn packing density, filament diameter and overall fiber volume fraction. Output consists of overall thermoelastic constants, yarn slice strains/stresses, yarn slice failure history, in-plane stress-strain response and ultimate failure strength. Strength can be computed under the combined action of thermal and mechanical loading (tension, compression and shear).

Fatigue of concrete subjected to biaxial loading in the tension region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramaniam, Kolluru V. L.

Rigid airport pavement structures are subjected to repeated high-amplitude loads resulting from passing aircraft. The resulting stress-state in the concrete is a biaxial combination of compression and tension. It is of interest to model the response of plain concrete to such loading conditions and develop accurate fatigue-based material models for implementation in mechanistic pavement design procedures. The objective of this work is to characterize the quasi-static and low-cycle fatigue response of concrete subjected to biaxial stresses in the tensile-compression-tension (t-C-T) region, where the principal tensile stress is larger in magnitude than the principal compressive stress. An experimental investigation of material behavior in the biaxial t-C-T region is conducted. The experimental setup consists of the following test configurations: (a) notched concrete beams tested in three-point bend configuration, and (b) hollow concrete cylinders subjected to torsion with or without superimposed axial tensile force. The damage imparted to the material is examined using mechanical measurements and an independent nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique based on vibration measurements. The failure of concrete in t-C-T region is shown to be a local phenomenon under quasi-static and fatigue loading, wherein the specimen fails owing to a single crack. The crack propagation is studied using the principles of fracture mechanics. It is shown that the crack propagation resulting from the t-C-T loading can be predicted using mode I fracture parameters. It is observed that crack growth in constant amplitude fatigue loading is a two-phase process: a deceleration phase followed by an acceleration stage. The quasi-static load envelope is shown to predict the crack length at fatigue failure. A fracture-based fatigue failure criterion is proposed, wherein the fatigue failure can be predicted using the critical mode I stress intensity factor. A material model for the damage evolution during fatigue loading of concrete in terms of crack propagation is proposed. The crack growth acceleration stage is shown to follow Paris law. The model parameters obtained from uniaxial fatigue tests are shown to be sufficient for predicting the considered biaxial fatigue response.

The prediction of cyclic proximal humerus fracture fixation failure by various bone density measures.

PubMed

Varga, Peter; Grünwald, Leonard; Windolf, Markus

2018-02-22

Fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures has remained challenging, but may be improved by careful pre-operative planning. The aim of this study was to investigate how well the failure of locking plate fixation of osteoporotic proximal humerus fractures can be predicted by bone density measures assessed with currently available clinical imaging (realistic case) and a higher resolution and quality modality (theoretical best-case). Various density measures were correlated to experimentally assessed number of cycles to construct failure of plated unstable low-density proximal humerus fractures (N = 18). The influence of density evaluation technique was investigated by comparing local (peri-implant) versus global evaluation regions; HR-pQCT-based versus clinical QCT-based image data; ipsilateral versus contralateral side; and bone mineral content (BMC) versus bone mineral density (BMD). All investigated density measures were significantly correlated with the experimental cycles to failure. The best performing clinically feasible parameter was the QCT-based BMC of the contralateral articular cap region, providing significantly better correlation (R 2  = 0.53) compared to a previously proposed clinical density measure (R 2  = 0.30). BMC had consistently, but not significantly stronger correlations with failure than BMD. The overall best results were obtained with the ipsilateral HR-pQCT-based local BMC (R 2  = 0.74) that may be used for implant optimization. Strong correlations were found between the corresponding density measures of the two CT image sources, as well as between the two sides. Future studies should investigate if BMC of the contralateral articular cap region could provide improved prediction of clinical fixation failure compared to previously proposed measures. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res. © 2018 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bulbar impairment score predicts noninvasive volume-cycled ventilation failure during an acute lower respiratory tract infection in ALS.

PubMed

Servera, Emilio; Sancho, Jesús; Bañuls, Pilar; Marín, Julio

2015-11-15

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients can suffer episodes of lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) leading to an acute respiratory failure (ARF) requiring noninvasive ventilation (NIV). To determine whether clinical or functional parameters can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI causing ARF in ALS. A prospective study involving all ALS patients with ARF requiring NIV in a Respiratory Care Unit. NIV was provided with volume-cycled ventilators. 63 ALS patients were included (APACHE II: 14.93±3.56, Norris bulbar subscore (NBS): 18.78±9.68, ALSFRS-R: 19.90±6.98, %FVC: 40.01±18.07%, MIC: 1.62±0.74L, PCF 2.51±1.15L/s, PImax -34.90±19.44cmH2O, PEmax 51.20±28.84cmH2O). In 73.0% of patients NIV was successful in averting death or endotracheal intubation. Differences were found between the success and failure in the NBS (22.08±6.15 vs 8.66±3.39, p<0.001), ALSFRS (22.08±6.11 vs 12.71±4.39, p<0.001), PCFMI-E (3.85±0.77 vs 2.81±0.91L/s, p=0.007) and ALS onset (spinal/bulbar 33/13 vs 7/10, p=0.03). The predictor of NIV failure was the NBS (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.31-0.92, p 0.002) with a cut-off point of 12 (S 0.93; E 0.97; PPV 0.76; NPV 0.97). NBS can predict noninvasive management failure during LRTI in ALS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erin V.

2007-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oswald, Fred B.; Jett, Timothy R.; Predmore, Roamer E.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for the four actuators on one shuttle, each with a 2-bearing shaft assembly, established a reliability level of 96.9 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

2008-08-01

Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P <.001 and HR: 2.52, CI: 1.56 to 4.05, P <.001; respectively), sudden death (HR: 2.25, CI: 1.13 to 4.46, P = .021 for HRT2), and death due to heart failure progression (HR: 4.11, CI: 1.84 to 9.19, P <.001 for HRT2) after adjustment for clinical covariates in multivariate analysis. The prognostic value of TS for predicting total mortality was similar in various groups dichotomized by age, gender, NYHA class, left ventricular ejection fraction, and CHF etiology. TS was found to be predictive for total mortality only in patients with QRS > 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

Dam-Break Flooding and Structural Damage in a Residential Neighborhood: Performance of a coupled hydrodynamic-damage model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, B. F.; Gallegos, H. A.; Schubert, J. E.

2011-12-01

The Baldwin Hills dam-break flood and associated structural damage is investigated in this study. The flood caused high velocity flows exceeding 5 m/s which destroyed 41 wood-framed residential structures, 16 of which were completed washed out. Damage is predicted by coupling a calibrated hydrodynamic flood model based on the shallow-water equations to structural damage models. The hydrodynamic and damage models are two-way coupled so building failure is predicted upon exceedance of a hydraulic intensity parameter, which in turn triggers a localized reduction in flow resistance which affects flood intensity predictions. Several established damage models and damage correlations reported in the literature are tested to evaluate the predictive skill for two damage states defined by destruction (Level 2) and washout (Level 3). Results show that high-velocity structural damage can be predicted with a remarkable level of skill using established damage models, but only with two-way coupling of the hydrodynamic and damage models. In contrast, when structural failure predictions have no influence on flow predictions, there is a significant reduction in predictive skill. Force-based damage models compare well with a subset of the damage models which were devised for similar types of structures. Implications for emergency planning and preparedness as well as monetary damage estimation are discussed.

Program For Evaluation Of Reliability Of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, N.; Janosik, L. A.; Gyekenyesi, J. P.; Powers, Lynn M.

1996-01-01

CARES/LIFE predicts probability of failure of monolithic ceramic component as function of service time. Assesses risk that component fractures prematurely as result of subcritical crack growth (SCG). Effect of proof testing of components prior to service also considered. Coupled to such commercially available finite-element programs as ANSYS, ABAQUS, MARC, MSC/NASTRAN, and COSMOS/M. Also retains all capabilities of previous CARES code, which includes estimation of fast-fracture component reliability and Weibull parameters from inert strength (without SCG contributing to failure) specimen data. Estimates parameters that characterize SCG from specimen data as well. Written in ANSI FORTRAN 77 to be machine-independent. Program runs on any computer in which sufficient addressable memory (at least 8MB) and FORTRAN 77 compiler available. For IBM-compatible personal computer with minimum 640K memory, limited program available (CARES/PC, COSMIC number LEW-15248).

Bayesian transformation cure frailty models with multivariate failure time data.

PubMed

Yin, Guosheng

2008-12-10

We propose a class of transformation cure frailty models to accommodate a survival fraction in multivariate failure time data. Established through a general power transformation, this family of cure frailty models includes the proportional hazards and the proportional odds modeling structures as two special cases. Within the Bayesian paradigm, we obtain the joint posterior distribution and the corresponding full conditional distributions of the model parameters for the implementation of Gibbs sampling. Model selection is based on the conditional predictive ordinate statistic and deviance information criterion. As an illustration, we apply the proposed method to a real data set from dentistry.

Power Cycle Testing of Power Switches: A Literature Survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

GopiReddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M.; Ozpineci, Burak

Reliability of power converters and lifetime prediction has been a major topic of research in the last few decades, especially for traction applications. The main failures in high power semiconductors are caused by thermomechanical fatigue. Power cycling and temperature cycling are the two most common thermal acceleration tests used in assessing reliability. The objective of this paper is to study the various power cycling tests found in the literature and to develop generalized steps in planning application specific power cycling tests. A comparison of different tests based on the failures, duration, test circuits, and monitored electrical parameters is presented.

Power Cycle Testing of Power Switches: A Literature Survey

DOE PAGES

GopiReddy, Lakshmi Reddy; Tolbert, Leon M.; Ozpineci, Burak

2014-09-18

Reliability of power converters and lifetime prediction has been a major topic of research in the last few decades, especially for traction applications. The main failures in high power semiconductors are caused by thermomechanical fatigue. Power cycling and temperature cycling are the two most common thermal acceleration tests used in assessing reliability. The objective of this paper is to study the various power cycling tests found in the literature and to develop generalized steps in planning application specific power cycling tests. A comparison of different tests based on the failures, duration, test circuits, and monitored electrical parameters is presented.

Evaluation for Bearing Wear States Based on Online Oil Multi-Parameters Monitoring

PubMed Central

Hu, Hai-Feng

2018-01-01

As bearings are critical components of a mechanical system, it is important to characterize their wear states and evaluate health conditions. In this paper, a novel approach for analyzing the relationship between online oil multi-parameter monitoring samples and bearing wear states has been proposed based on an improved gray k-means clustering model (G-KCM). First, an online monitoring system with multiple sensors for bearings is established, obtaining oil multi-parameter data and vibration signals for bearings through the whole lifetime. Secondly, a gray correlation degree distance matrix is generated using a gray correlation model (GCM) to express the relationship of oil monitoring samples at different times and then a KCM is applied to cluster the matrix. Analysis and experimental results show that there is an obvious correspondence that state changing coincides basically in time between the lubricants’ multi-parameters and the bearings’ wear states. It also has shown that online oil samples with multi-parameters have early wear failure prediction ability for bearings superior to vibration signals. It is expected to realize online oil monitoring and evaluation for bearing health condition and to provide a novel approach for early identification of bearing-related failure modes. PMID:29621175

Evaluation for Bearing Wear States Based on Online Oil Multi-Parameters Monitoring.

PubMed

Wang, Si-Yuan; Yang, Ding-Xin; Hu, Hai-Feng

2018-04-05

As bearings are critical components of a mechanical system, it is important to characterize their wear states and evaluate health conditions. In this paper, a novel approach for analyzing the relationship between online oil multi-parameter monitoring samples and bearing wear states has been proposed based on an improved gray k-means clustering model (G-KCM). First, an online monitoring system with multiple sensors for bearings is established, obtaining oil multi-parameter data and vibration signals for bearings through the whole lifetime. Secondly, a gray correlation degree distance matrix is generated using a gray correlation model (GCM) to express the relationship of oil monitoring samples at different times and then a KCM is applied to cluster the matrix. Analysis and experimental results show that there is an obvious correspondence that state changing coincides basically in time between the lubricants' multi-parameters and the bearings' wear states. It also has shown that online oil samples with multi-parameters have early wear failure prediction ability for bearings superior to vibration signals. It is expected to realize online oil monitoring and evaluation for bearing health condition and to provide a novel approach for early identification of bearing-related failure modes.

Mining telemonitored physiological data and patient-reported outcomes of congestive heart failure patients

PubMed Central

Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Somrak, Maja; Bonfiglio, Silvio; Luštrek, Mitja

2018-01-01

This paper addresses patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and telemonitoring in congestive heart failure (CHF), both increasingly important topics. The interest in CHF trials is shifting from hard end-points such as hospitalization and mortality, to softer end-points such health-related quality of life. However, the relation of these softer end-points to objective parameters is not well studied. Telemonitoring is suitable for collecting both patient-reported outcomes and objective parameters. Most telemonitoring studies, however, do not take full advantage of the available sensor technology and intelligent data analysis. The Chiron clinical observational study was performed among 24 CHF patients (17 men and 7 women, age 62.9 ± 9.4 years, 15 NYHA class II and 9 class III, 10 of ishaemic, aetiology, 6 dilated, 2 valvular, and 6 of multiple aetiologies or cardiomyopathy) in Italy and UK. A large number of physiological and ambient parameters were collected by wearable and other devices, together with PROs describing how well the patients felt, over 1,086 days of observation. The resulting data were mined for relations between the objective parameters and the PROs. The objective parameters (humidity, ambient temperature, blood pressure, SpO2, and sweeting intensity) could predict the PROs with accuracies up to 86% and AUC up to 0.83, making this the first report providing evidence for ambient and physiological parameters to be objectively related to PROs in CHF patients. We also analyzed the relations in the predictive models, gaining some insights into what affects the feeling of health, which was also generally not attempted in previous investigations. The paper strongly points to the possibility of using PROs as primary end-points in future trials. PMID:29494601

Mining telemonitored physiological data and patient-reported outcomes of congestive heart failure patients.

PubMed

Mlakar, Miha; Puddu, Paolo Emilio; Somrak, Maja; Bonfiglio, Silvio; Luštrek, Mitja

2018-01-01

This paper addresses patient-reported outcomes (PROs) and telemonitoring in congestive heart failure (CHF), both increasingly important topics. The interest in CHF trials is shifting from hard end-points such as hospitalization and mortality, to softer end-points such health-related quality of life. However, the relation of these softer end-points to objective parameters is not well studied. Telemonitoring is suitable for collecting both patient-reported outcomes and objective parameters. Most telemonitoring studies, however, do not take full advantage of the available sensor technology and intelligent data analysis. The Chiron clinical observational study was performed among 24 CHF patients (17 men and 7 women, age 62.9 ± 9.4 years, 15 NYHA class II and 9 class III, 10 of ishaemic, aetiology, 6 dilated, 2 valvular, and 6 of multiple aetiologies or cardiomyopathy) in Italy and UK. A large number of physiological and ambient parameters were collected by wearable and other devices, together with PROs describing how well the patients felt, over 1,086 days of observation. The resulting data were mined for relations between the objective parameters and the PROs. The objective parameters (humidity, ambient temperature, blood pressure, SpO2, and sweeting intensity) could predict the PROs with accuracies up to 86% and AUC up to 0.83, making this the first report providing evidence for ambient and physiological parameters to be objectively related to PROs in CHF patients. We also analyzed the relations in the predictive models, gaining some insights into what affects the feeling of health, which was also generally not attempted in previous investigations. The paper strongly points to the possibility of using PROs as primary end-points in future trials.

Failure prediction of thin beryllium sheets used in spacecraft structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roschke, Paul N.; Mascorro, Edward; Papados, Photios; Serna, Oscar R.

1991-01-01

The primary objective of this study is to develop a method for prediction of failure of thin beryllium sheets that undergo complex states of stress. Major components of the research include experimental evaluation of strength parameters for cross-rolled beryllium sheet, application of the Tsai-Wu failure criterion to plate bending problems, development of a high order failure criterion, application of the new criterion to a variety of structures, and incorporation of both failure criteria into a finite element code. A Tsai-Wu failure model for SR-200 sheet material is developed from available tensile data, experiments carried out by NASA on two circular plates, and compression and off-axis experiments performed in this study. The failure surface obtained from the resulting criterion forms an ellipsoid. By supplementing experimental data used in the the two-dimensional criterion and modifying previously suggested failure criteria, a multi-dimensional failure surface is proposed for thin beryllium structures. The new criterion for orthotropic material is represented by a failure surface in six-dimensional stress space. In order to determine coefficients of the governing equation, a number of uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial experiments are required. Details of these experiments and a complementary ultrasonic investigation are described in detail. Finally, validity of the criterion and newly determined mechanical properties is established through experiments on structures composed of SR200 sheet material. These experiments include a plate-plug arrangement under a complex state of stress and a series of plates with an out-of-plane central point load. Both criteria have been incorporated into a general purpose finite element analysis code. Numerical simulation incrementally applied loads to a structural component that is being designed and checks each nodal point in the model for exceedance of a failure criterion. If stresses at all locations do not exceed the failure criterion, the load is increased and the process is repeated. Failure results for the plate-plug and clamped plate tests are accurate to within 2 percent.

Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Mark Jay

The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

Age-related changes in bone strength from HR-pQCT derived microarchitectural parameters with an emphasis on the role of cortical porosity.

PubMed

Vilayphiou, Nicolas; Boutroy, Stephanie; Sornay-Rendu, Elisabeth; Van Rietbergen, Bert; Chapurlat, Roland

2016-02-01

The high resolution peripheral computed tomography (HR-pQCT) technique has seen recent developments with regard to the assessment of cortical porosity. In this study, we investigated the role of cortical porosity on bone strength in a large cohort of women. The distal radius and distal tibia were scanned by HR-pQCT. We assessed bone strength by estimating the failure load by microfinite element analysis (μFEA), with isotropic and homogeneous material properties. We built a multivariate model to predict it, using a few microarchitecture variables including cortical porosity. Among 857 Caucasian women analyzed with μFEA, we found that cortical and trabecular properties, along with the failure load, impaired slightly with advancing age in premenopausal women, the correlations with age being modest, with |rage| ranging from 0.14 to 0.38. After the onset of the menopause, those relationships with age were stronger for most parameters at both sites, with |rage| ranging from 0.10 to 0.64, notably for cortical porosity and failure load, which were markedly deteriorated with increasing age. Our multivariate model using microarchitecture parameters revealed that cortical porosity played a significant role in bone strength prediction, with semipartial r(2)=0.22 only at the tibia in postmenopausal women. In conclusion, in our large cohort of women, we observed a small decline of bone strength at the tibia before the onset of menopause. We also found an age-related increase of cortical porosity at both scanned sites in premenopausal women. In postmenopausal women, the relatively high increase of cortical porosity accounted for the decline in bone strength only at the tibia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Plateau Best Predicts Early Death in Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Hansen, James E.; Stringer, William W.

2012-01-01

Background: The responses of oxygen uptake efficiency (ie, oxygen uptake/ventilation = V˙o2/V˙e) and its highest plateau (OUEP) during incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in patients with chronic left heart failure (HF) have not been previously reported. We planned to test the hypothesis that OUEP during CPET is the best single predictor of early death in HF. Methods: We evaluated OUEP, slope of V˙o2 to log(V˙e) (oxygen uptake efficiency slope), oscillatory breathing, and all usual resting and CPET measurements in 508 patients with low-ejection-fraction (< 35%) HF. Each had further evaluations at other sites, including cardiac catheterization. Outcomes were 6-month all-reason mortality and morbidity (death or > 24 h cardiac hospitalization). Statistical analyses included area under curve of receiver operating characteristics, ORs, univariate and multivariate Cox regression, and Kaplan-Meier plots. Results: OUEP, which requires only moderate exercise, was often reduced in patients with HF. A low % predicted OUEP was the single best predictor of mortality (P < .0001), with an OR of 13.0 (P < .001). When combined with oscillatory breathing, the OR increased to 56.3, superior to all other resting or exercise parameters or combinations of parameters. Other statistical analyses and morbidity analysis confirmed those findings. Conclusions: OUEP is often reduced in patients with HF. Low % predicted OUEP (< 65% predicted) is the single best predictor of early death, better than any other CPET or other cardiovascular measurement. Paired with oscillatory breathing, it is even more powerful. PMID:22030802

Thermomechanical Modeling of Sintered Silver - A Fracture Mechanics-based Approach: Extended Abstract: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paret, Paul P; DeVoto, Douglas J; Narumanchi, Sreekant V

Sintered silver has proven to be a promising candidate for use as a die-attach and substrate-attach material in automotive power electronics components. It holds promise of greater reliability than lead-based and lead-free solders, especially at higher temperatures (less than 200 degrees Celcius). Accurate predictive lifetime models of sintered silver need to be developed and its failure mechanisms thoroughly characterized before it can be deployed as a die-attach or substrate-attach material in wide-bandgap device-based packages. We present a finite element method (FEM) modeling methodology that can offer greater accuracy in predicting the failure of sintered silver under accelerated thermal cycling. Amore » fracture mechanics-based approach is adopted in the FEM model, and J-integral/thermal cycle values are computed. In this paper, we outline the procedures for obtaining the J-integral/thermal cycle values in a computational model and report on the possible advantage of using these values as modeling parameters in a predictive lifetime model.« less

Transient Finite Element Analyses Developed to Model Fan Containment Impact Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pereira, J. Michael

1997-01-01

Research is underway to establish an increased level of confidence in existing numerical techniques for predicting transient behavior when the fan of a jet engine is released and impacts the fan containment system. To evaluate the predictive accuracy that can currently be obtained, researchers at the NASA Lewis Research Center used the DYNA 3D computer code to simulate large-scale subcomponent impact tests that were conducted at the University of Dayton Research Institute (UDRI) Impact Physics Lab. In these tests, 20- by 40-in. flat metal panels, contoured to the shape of a typical fan case, were impacted by the root section of a fan blade. The panels were oriented at an angle to the path of the projectile that would simulate the conditions in an actual blade-out event. The metal panels were modeled in DYNA 3D using a kinematic hardening model with the strain rate dependence of the yield stress governed by the Cowper-Simons rule. Failure was governed by the effective plastic strain criterion. The model of the fan blade and case just after impact is shown. By varying the maximum effective plastic strain, we obtained good qualitative agreement between the model and the experiments. Both the velocity required to penetrate the case and the deflection during impact compared well. This indicates that the failure criterion and constitutive model may be appropriate, but for DYNA 3D to be useful as a predictive tool, methods to determine accurate model parameters must be established. Simple methods for measuring model parameters are currently being developed. In addition, alternative constitutive models and failure criteria are being investigated.

Experimental test of theory for the stability of partially saturated vertical cut slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morse, Michael M.; Lu, N.; Wayllace, Alexandra; Godt, Jonathan W.; Take, W.A.

2014-01-01

This paper extends Culmann's vertical-cut analysis to unsaturated soils. To test the extended theory, unsaturated sand was compacted to a uniform porosity and moisture content in a laboratory apparatus. A sliding door that extended the height of the free face of the slope was lowered until the vertical cut failed. Digital images of the slope cross section and upper surface were acquired concurrently. A recently developed particle image velocimetry (PIV) tool was used to quantify soil displacement. The PIV analysis showed strain localization at varying distances from the sliding door prior to failure. The areas of localized strain were coincident with the location of the slope crest after failure. Shear-strength and soil-water-characteristic parameters of the sand were independently tested for use in extended analyses of the vertical-cut stability and of the failure plane angle. Experimental failure heights were within 22.3% of the heights predicted using the extended theory.

Robust prediction of consensus secondary structures using averaged base pairing probability matrices.

PubMed

Kiryu, Hisanori; Kin, Taishin; Asai, Kiyoshi

2007-02-15

Recent transcriptomic studies have revealed the existence of a considerable number of non-protein-coding RNA transcripts in higher eukaryotic cells. To investigate the functional roles of these transcripts, it is of great interest to find conserved secondary structures from multiple alignments on a genomic scale. Since multiple alignments are often created using alignment programs that neglect the special conservation patterns of RNA secondary structures for computational efficiency, alignment failures can cause potential risks of overlooking conserved stem structures. We investigated the dependence of the accuracy of secondary structure prediction on the quality of alignments. We compared three algorithms that maximize the expected accuracy of secondary structures as well as other frequently used algorithms. We found that one of our algorithms, called McCaskill-MEA, was more robust against alignment failures than others. The McCaskill-MEA method first computes the base pairing probability matrices for all the sequences in the alignment and then obtains the base pairing probability matrix of the alignment by averaging over these matrices. The consensus secondary structure is predicted from this matrix such that the expected accuracy of the prediction is maximized. We show that the McCaskill-MEA method performs better than other methods, particularly when the alignment quality is low and when the alignment consists of many sequences. Our model has a parameter that controls the sensitivity and specificity of predictions. We discussed the uses of that parameter for multi-step screening procedures to search for conserved secondary structures and for assigning confidence values to the predicted base pairs. The C++ source code that implements the McCaskill-MEA algorithm and the test dataset used in this paper are available at http://www.ncrna.org/papers/McCaskillMEA/. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Reliability analysis of a robotic system using hybridized technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Naveen; Komal; Lather, J. S.

2017-09-01

In this manuscript, the reliability of a robotic system has been analyzed using the available data (containing vagueness, uncertainty, etc). Quantification of involved uncertainties is done through data fuzzification using triangular fuzzy numbers with known spreads as suggested by system experts. With fuzzified data, if the existing fuzzy lambda-tau (FLT) technique is employed, then the computed reliability parameters have wide range of predictions. Therefore, decision-maker cannot suggest any specific and influential managerial strategy to prevent unexpected failures and consequently to improve complex system performance. To overcome this problem, the present study utilizes a hybridized technique. With this technique, fuzzy set theory is utilized to quantify uncertainties, fault tree is utilized for the system modeling, lambda-tau method is utilized to formulate mathematical expressions for failure/repair rates of the system, and genetic algorithm is utilized to solve established nonlinear programming problem. Different reliability parameters of a robotic system are computed and the results are compared with the existing technique. The components of the robotic system follow exponential distribution, i.e., constant. Sensitivity analysis is also performed and impact on system mean time between failures (MTBF) is addressed by varying other reliability parameters. Based on analysis some influential suggestions are given to improve the system performance.

Day-to-day measurement of patient-reported outcomes in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

PubMed Central

Kocks, Jan Willem H; van den Berg, Jan Willem K; Kerstjens, Huib AM; Uil, Steven M; Vonk, Judith M; de Jong, Ynze P; Tsiligianni, Ioanna G; van der Molen, Thys

2013-01-01

Background Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are a major burden to patients and to society. Little is known about the possible role of day-to-day patient-reported outcomes during an exacerbation. This study aims to describe the day-to-day course of patient-reported health status during exacerbations of COPD and to assess its value in predicting clinical outcomes. Methods Data from two randomized controlled COPD exacerbation trials (n = 210 and n = 45 patients) were used to describe both the feasibility of daily collection of and the day-to-day course of patient-reported outcomes during outpatient treatment or admission to hospital. In addition to clinical parameters, the BORG dyspnea score, the Clinical COPD Questionnaire (CCQ), and the St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire were used in Cox regression models to predict treatment failure, time to next exacerbation, and mortality in the hospital study. Results All patient-reported outcomes showed a distinct pattern of improvement. In the multivariate models, absence of improvement in CCQ symptom score and impaired lung function were independent predictors of treatment failure. Health status and gender predicted time to next exacerbation. Five-year mortality was predicted by age, forced expiratory flow in one second % predicted, smoking status, and CCQ score. In outpatient management of exacerbations, health status was found to be less impaired than in hospitalized patients, while the rate and pattern of recovery was remarkably similar. Conclusion Daily health status measurements were found to predict treatment failure, which could help decision-making for patients hospitalized due to an exacerbation of COPD. PMID:23766644

TU-FG-201-09: Predicting Accelerator Dysfunction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Able, C; Nguyen, C; Baydush, A

Purpose: To develop an integrated statistical process control (SPC) framework using digital performance and component data accumulated within the accelerator system that can detect dysfunction prior to unscheduled downtime. Methods: Seven digital accelerators were monitored for twelve to 18 months. The accelerators were operated in a ‘run to failure mode’ with the individual institutions determining when service would be initiated. Institutions were required to submit detailed service reports. Trajectory and text log files resulting from a robust daily VMAT QA delivery were decoded and evaluated using Individual and Moving Range (I/MR) control charts. The SPC evaluation was presented in amore » customized dashboard interface that allows the user to review 525 monitored parameters (480 MLC parameters). Chart limits were calculated using a hybrid technique that includes the standard SPC 3σ limits and an empirical factor based on the parameter/system specification. The individual (I) grand mean values and control limit ranges of the I/MR charts of all accelerators were compared using statistical (ranked analysis of variance (ANOVA)) and graphical analyses to determine consistency of operating parameters. Results: When an alarm or warning was directly connected to field service, process control charts predicted dysfunction consistently on beam generation related parameters (BGP)– RF Driver Voltage, Gun Grid Voltage, and Forward Power (W); beam uniformity parameters – angle and position steering coil currents; and Gantry position accuracy parameter: cross correlation max-value. Control charts for individual MLC – cross correlation max-value/position detected 50% to 60% of MLCs serviced prior to dysfunction or failure. In general, non-random changes were detected 5 to 80 days prior to a service intervention. The ANOVA comparison of BGP determined that each accelerator parameter operated at a distinct value. Conclusion: The SPC framework shows promise. Long term monitoring coordinated with service will be required to definitively determine the effectiveness of the model. Varian Medical System, Inc. provided funding in support of the research presented.« less

Identification of failure type in corroded pipelines: a bayesian probabilistic approach.

PubMed

Breton, T; Sanchez-Gheno, J C; Alamilla, J L; Alvarez-Ramirez, J

2010-07-15

Spillover of hazardous materials from transport pipelines can lead to catastrophic events with serious and dangerous environmental impact, potential fire events and human fatalities. The problem is more serious for large pipelines when the construction material is under environmental corrosion conditions, as in the petroleum and gas industries. In this way, predictive models can provide a suitable framework for risk evaluation, maintenance policies and substitution procedure design that should be oriented to reduce increased hazards. This work proposes a bayesian probabilistic approach to identify and predict the type of failure (leakage or rupture) for steel pipelines under realistic corroding conditions. In the first step of the modeling process, the mechanical performance of the pipe is considered for establishing conditions under which either leakage or rupture failure can occur. In the second step, experimental burst tests are used to introduce a mean probabilistic boundary defining a region where the type of failure is uncertain. In the boundary vicinity, the failure discrimination is carried out with a probabilistic model where the events are considered as random variables. In turn, the model parameters are estimated with available experimental data and contrasted with a real catastrophic event, showing good discrimination capacity. The results are discussed in terms of policies oriented to inspection and maintenance of large-size pipelines in the oil and gas industry. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the biomechanical and injury response of human liver parenchyma under tensile loading.

PubMed

Untaroiu, Costin D; Lu, Yuan-Chiao; Siripurapu, Sundeep K; Kemper, Andrew R

2015-01-01

The rapid advancement in computational power has made human finite element (FE) models one of the most efficient tools for assessing the risk of abdominal injuries in a crash event. In this study, specimen-specific FE models were employed to quantify material and failure properties of human liver parenchyma using a FE optimization approach. Uniaxial tensile tests were performed on 34 parenchyma coupon specimens prepared from two fresh human livers. Each specimen was tested to failure at one of four loading rates (0.01s(-1), 0.1s(-1), 1s(-1), and 10s(-1)) to investigate the effects of rate dependency on the biomechanical and failure response of liver parenchyma. Each test was simulated by prescribing the end displacements of specimen-specific FE models based on the corresponding test data. The parameters of a first-order Ogden material model were identified for each specimen by a FE optimization approach while simulating the pre-tear loading region. The mean material model parameters were then determined for each loading rate from the characteristic averages of the stress-strain curves, and a stochastic optimization approach was utilized to determine the standard deviations of the material model parameters. A hyperelastic material model using a tabulated formulation for rate effects showed good predictions in terms of tensile material properties of human liver parenchyma. Furthermore, the tissue tearing was numerically simulated using a cohesive zone modeling (CZM) approach. A layer of cohesive elements was added at the failure location, and the CZM parameters were identified by fitting the post-tear force-time history recorded in each test. The results show that the proposed approach is able to capture both the biomechanical and failure response, and accurately model the overall force-deflection response of liver parenchyma over a large range of tensile loadings rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Degradation modeling of mid-power white-light LEDs by using Wiener process.

PubMed

Huang, Jianlin; Golubović, Dušan S; Koh, Sau; Yang, Daoguo; Li, Xiupeng; Fan, Xuejun; Zhang, G Q

2015-07-27

The IES standard TM-21-11 provides a guideline for lifetime prediction of LED devices. As it uses average normalized lumen maintenance data and performs non-linear regression for lifetime modeling, it cannot capture dynamic and random variation of the degradation process of LED devices. In addition, this method cannot capture the failure distribution, although it is much more relevant in reliability analysis. Furthermore, the TM-21-11 only considers lumen maintenance for lifetime prediction. Color shift, as another important performance characteristic of LED devices, may also render significant degradation during service life, even though the lumen maintenance has not reached the critical threshold. In this study, a modified Wiener process has been employed for the modeling of the degradation of LED devices. By using this method, dynamic and random variations, as well as the non-linear degradation behavior of LED devices, can be easily accounted for. With a mild assumption, the parameter estimation accuracy has been improved by including more information into the likelihood function while neglecting the dependency between the random variables. As a consequence, the mean time to failure (MTTF) has been obtained and shows comparable result with IES TM-21-11 predictions, indicating the feasibility of the proposed method. Finally, the cumulative failure distribution was presented corresponding to different combinations of lumen maintenance and color shift. The results demonstrate that a joint failure distribution of LED devices could be modeled by simply considering their lumen maintenance and color shift as two independent variables.

Chairside CAD/CAM materials. Part 3: Cyclic fatigue parameters and lifetime predictions.

PubMed

Wendler, Michael; Belli, Renan; Valladares, Diana; Petschelt, Anselm; Lohbauer, Ulrich

2018-06-01

Chemical and mechanical degradation play a key role on the lifetime of dental restorative materials. Therefore, prediction of their long-term performance in the oral environment should base on fatigue, rather than inert strength data, as commonly observed in the dental material's field. The objective of the present study was to provide mechanistic fatigue parameters of current dental CAD/CAM materials under cyclic biaxial flexure and assess their suitability in predicting clinical fracture behaviors. Eight CAD/CAM materials, including polycrystalline zirconia (IPS e.max ZirCAD), reinforced glasses (Vitablocs Mark II, IPS Empress CAD), glass-ceramics (IPS e.max CAD, Suprinity PC, Celtra Duo), as well as hybrid materials (Enamic, Lava Ultimate) were evaluated. Rectangular plates (12×12×1.2mm 3 ) with highly polished surfaces were prepared and tested in biaxial cyclic fatigue in water until fracture using the Ball-on-Three-Balls (B3B) test. Cyclic fatigue parameters n and A* were obtained from the lifetime data for each material and further used to build SPT diagrams. The latter were used to compare in-vitro with in-vivo fracture distributions for IPS e.max CAD and IPS Empress CAD. Susceptibility to subcritical crack growth under cyclic loading was observed for all materials, being more severe (n≤20) in lithium-based glass-ceramics and Vitablocs Mark II. Strength degradations of 40% up to 60% were predicted after only 1 year of service. Threshold stress intensity factors (K th ) representing the onset of subcritical crack growth (SCG), were estimated to lie in the range of 0.37-0.44 of K Ic for the lithium-based glass-ceramics and Vitablocs Mark II and between 0.51-0.59 of K Ic for the other materials. Failure distributions associated with mechanistic estimations of strength degradation in-vitro showed to be useful in interpreting failure behavior in-vivo. The parameter K th stood out as a better predictor of clinical performance in detriment to the SCG n parameter. Fatigue parameters obtained from cyclic loading experiments are more reliable predictors of the mechanical performance of contemporary dental CAD/CAM restoratives than quasi-static mechanical properties. Copyright © 2018 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Intravaia, F.; Behunin, R. O.; Henkel, C.

Here, we discuss the failure of the Markov approximation in the description of atom-surface fluctuation-induced interactions, both in equilibrium (Casimir-Polder forces) and out of equilibrium (quantum friction). Using general theoretical arguments, we show that the Markov approximation can lead to erroneous predictions of such phenomena with regard to both strength and functional dependencies on system parameters. Particularly, we show that the long-time power-law tails of two-time dipole correlations and their corresponding low-frequency behavior, neglected in the Markovian limit, affect the prediction of the force. These findings highlight the importance of non-Markovian effects in dispersion interactions.

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phoenix, S. Leigh; Kezirian, Michael T.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

2009-01-01

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Sometimes lifetime testing is performed on an actual COPV in service in an effort to validate the reliability model that is the basis for certifying the continued flight worthiness of its sisters. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49(registered TradeMark)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the data base and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one nine , that is, reducing the probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several would be necessary.

Spatial and temporal analyses for multiscale monitoring of landslides: Examples from Northern Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew; McKinley, Jennifer; Hughes, David

2013-04-01

Landslides in the form of debris flows, large scale rotational features and composite mudflows impact transport corridors cutting off local communities and in some instances result in loss of life. This study presents landslide monitoring methods used for predicting and characterising landslide activity along transport corridors. A variety of approaches are discussed: desk based risk assessment of slopes using Geographical Information Systems (GIS); Aerial LiDAR surveys and Terrestrial LiDAR monitoring and field instrumentation of selected sites. A GIS based case study is discussed which provides risk assessment for the potential of slope stability issues. Layers incorporated within the system include Digital Elevation Model (DEM), slope, aspect, solid and drift geology and groundwater conditions. Additional datasets include consequence of failure. These are combined within a risk model, presented as likelihoods of failure. This integrated spatial approach for slope risk assessment provides the user with a preliminary risk assessment of sites. An innovative "Flexviewer" web-based server interface allows users to view data without needing advanced GIS techniques to gather information about selected areas. On a macro landscape scale, Aerial LiDAR (ALS) surveys are used for the characterisation of landslides from the surrounding terrain. DEMs are generated along with terrain derivatives: slope, curvature and various measures of terrain roughness. Spatial analysis of terrain morphological parameters allow characterisation of slope stability issues and are used to predict areas of potential failure or recently failure terrain. On a local scale ground monitoring approaches are employed for the monitoring of changes in selected slopes using ALS and risk assessment approaches. Results are shown from on-going bimonthly Terrestrial LiDAR (TLS) monitoring of the slope within a site specific geodectically referenced network. This has allowed a classification of changes in the slopes with DEMs of difference showing areas of recent movement, erosion and deposition. In addition, changes in the structure of the slope characterised by DEM of difference and morphological parameters in the form of roughness, slope and curvature measures are progressively linked to failures indicated from temporal DEM monitoring. Preliminary results are presented for a case site at Straidkilly Point, Glenarm, Co. Antrim, Northern Ireland, illustrating multiple approaches to the spatial and temporal monitoring of landslides. These indicate how spatial morphological approaches and risk assessment frameworks coupled with TLS monitoring and field instrumentation enable characterisation and prediction of potential areas of slope stability issues. On site weather instrumentation and piezometers document changes in pore water pressures resulting in site-specific information with geotechnical observations parameterised within the temporal LiDAR monitoring. This provides a multifaceted approach to the characterisation and analysis of slope stability issues. The presented methodology of multiscale datasets and surveying approaches utilising spatial parameters and risk index mapping enables a more comprehensive and effective prediction of landslides resulting in effective characterisation and remediation strategies.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less

Prediction of Fatigue Crack Growth in Gas Turbine Engine Blades Using Acoustic Emission

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhiheng; Yang, Guoan; Hu, Kun

2018-01-01

Fatigue failure is the main type of failure that occurs in gas turbine engine blades and an online monitoring method for detecting fatigue cracks in blades is urgently needed. Therefore, in this present study, we propose the use of acoustic emission (AE) monitoring for the online identification of the blade status. Experiments on fatigue crack propagation based on the AE monitoring of gas turbine engine blades and TC11 titanium alloy plates were conducted. The relationship between the cumulative AE hits and the fatigue crack length was established, before a method of using the AE parameters to determine the crack propagation stage was proposed. A method for predicting the degree of crack propagation and residual fatigue life based on the AE energy was obtained. The results provide a new method for the online monitoring of cracks in the gas turbine engine blade. PMID:29693556

Prediction of Fatigue Crack Growth in Gas Turbine Engine Blades Using Acoustic Emission.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhiheng; Yang, Guoan; Hu, Kun

2018-04-25

Fatigue failure is the main type of failure that occurs in gas turbine engine blades and an online monitoring method for detecting fatigue cracks in blades is urgently needed. Therefore, in this present study, we propose the use of acoustic emission (AE) monitoring for the online identification of the blade status. Experiments on fatigue crack propagation based on the AE monitoring of gas turbine engine blades and TC11 titanium alloy plates were conducted. The relationship between the cumulative AE hits and the fatigue crack length was established, before a method of using the AE parameters to determine the crack propagation stage was proposed. A method for predicting the degree of crack propagation and residual fatigue life based on the AE energy was obtained. The results provide a new method for the online monitoring of cracks in the gas turbine engine blade.

An evaluation of the Johnson-Cook model to simulate puncture of 7075 aluminum plates.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corona, Edmundo; Orient, George Edgar

The objective of this project was to evaluate the use of the Johnson-Cook strength and failure models in an adiabatic finite element model to simulate the puncture of 7075- T651 aluminum plates that were studied as part of an ASC L2 milestone by Corona et al (2012). The Johnson-Cook model parameters were determined from material test data. The results show a marked improvement, in particular in the calculated threshold velocity between no puncture and puncture, over those obtained in 2012. The threshold velocity calculated using a baseline model is just 4% higher than the mean value determined from experiment, inmore » contrast to 60% in the 2012 predictions. Sensitivity studies showed that the threshold velocity predictions were improved by calibrating the relations between the equivalent plastic strain at failure and stress triaxiality, strain rate and temperature, as well as by the inclusion of adiabatic heating.« less

Quantitative validation of carbon-fiber laminate low velocity impact simulations

DOE PAGES

English, Shawn A.; Briggs, Timothy M.; Nelson, Stacy M.

2015-09-26

Simulations of low velocity impact with a flat cylindrical indenter upon a carbon fiber fabric reinforced polymer laminate are rigorously validated. Comparison of the impact energy absorption between the model and experiment is used as the validation metric. Additionally, non-destructive evaluation, including ultrasonic scans and three-dimensional computed tomography, provide qualitative validation of the models. The simulations include delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. An orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model, capable of predicting progressive damage and failure, is developed in conjunction and described. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter uncertainties is used to predict a response distribution which ismore » then compared to experimental output using appropriate statistical methods. Lastly, the model form errors are exposed and corrected for use in an additional blind validation analysis. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating low velocity impact in structures of interest.« less

A unified bond theory, probabilistic meso-scale modeling, and experimental validation of deformed steel rebar in normal strength concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chenglin

Bond between deformed rebar and concrete is affected by rebar deformation pattern, concrete properties, concrete confinement, and rebar-concrete interfacial properties. Two distinct groups of bond models were traditionally developed based on the dominant effects of concrete splitting and near-interface shear-off failures. Their accuracy highly depended upon the test data sets selected in analysis and calibration. In this study, a unified bond model is proposed and developed based on an analogy to the indentation problem around the rib front of deformed rebar. This mechanics-based model can take into account the combined effect of concrete splitting and interface shear-off failures, resulting in average bond strengths for all practical scenarios. To understand the fracture process associated with bond failure, a probabilistic meso-scale model of concrete is proposed and its sensitivity to interface and confinement strengths are investigated. Both the mechanical and finite element models are validated with the available test data sets and are superior to existing models in prediction of average bond strength (< 6% error) and crack spacing (< 6% error). The validated bond model is applied to derive various interrelations among concrete crushing, concrete splitting, interfacial behavior, and the rib spacing-to-height ratio of deformed rebar. It can accurately predict the transition of failure modes from concrete splitting to rebar pullout and predict the effect of rebar surface characteristics as the rib spacing-to-height ratio increases. Based on the unified theory, a global bond model is proposed and developed by introducing bond-slip laws, and validated with testing of concrete beams with spliced reinforcement, achieving a load capacity prediction error of less than 26%. The optimal rebar parameters and concrete cover in structural designs can be derived from this study.

Linear Parameter Varying Control Synthesis for Actuator Failure, Based on Estimated Parameter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, Jong-Yeob; Wu, N. Eva; Belcastro, Christine

2002-01-01

The design of a linear parameter varying (LPV) controller for an aircraft at actuator failure cases is presented. The controller synthesis for actuator failure cases is formulated into linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimizations based on an estimated failure parameter with pre-defined estimation error bounds. The inherent conservatism of an LPV control synthesis methodology is reduced using a scaling factor on the uncertainty block which represents estimated parameter uncertainties. The fault parameter is estimated using the two-stage Kalman filter. The simulation results of the designed LPV controller for a HiMXT (Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology) vehicle with the on-line estimator show that the desired performance and robustness objectives are achieved for actuator failure cases.

Failure mechanisms of fibrin-based surgical tissue adhesives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierra, David Hugh

A series of studies was performed to investigate the potential impact of heterogeneity in the matrix of multiple-component fibrin-based tissue adhesives upon their mechanical and biomechanical properties both in vivo and in vitro. Investigations into the failure mechanisms by stereological techniques demonstrated that heterogeneity could be measured quantitatively and that the variation in heterogeneity could be altered both by the means of component mixing and delivery and by the formulation of the sealant. Ex vivo tensile adhesive strength was found to be inversely proportional to the amount of heterogeneity. In contrast, in vivo tensile wound-closure strength was found to be relatively unaffected by the degree of heterogeneity, while in vivo parenchymal organ hemostasis in rabbits was found to be affected: greater heterogeneity appeared to correlate with an increase in hemostasis time and amount of sealant necessary to effect hemostasis. Tensile testing of the bulk sealant showed that mechanical parameters were proportional to fibrin concentration and that the physical characteristics of the failure supported a ductile mechanism. Strain hardening as a function of percentage of strain, and strain rate was observed for both concentrations, and syneresis was observed at low strain rates for the lower fibrin concentration. Blister testing demonstrated that burst pressure and failure energy were proportional to fibrin concentration and decreased with increasing flow rate. Higher fibrin concentration demonstrated predominately compact morphology debonds with cohesive failure loci, demonstrating shear or viscous failure in a viscoelastic rubbery adhesive. The lower fibrin concentration sealant exhibited predominately fractal morphology debonds with cohesive failure loci, supporting an elastoviscous material condition. The failure mechanism for these was hypothesized and shown to be flow-induced ductile fracture. Based on these findings, the failure mechanism was stochastic in nature because the mean failure energy and burst pressure values were not predictive of locus and morphology. Instead, flow rate and fibrin concentration showed the most predictive value, with the outcome best described as a probability distribution rather than a specific deterministic outcome.

Heart rate variability enhances the prognostic value of established parameters in patients with congestive heart failure.

PubMed

Krüger, C; Lahm, T; Zugck, C; Kell, R; Schellberg, D; Schweizer, M W F; Kübler, W; Haass, M

2002-12-01

This prospective study evaluated whether heart rate variability (HRV) assessed from Holter ECG has prognostic value in addition to established parameters in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). The study included 222 patients with CHF due to dilated or ischemic cardiomyopathy (left ventricular ejection fraction LVEF 21+/-1%; mean+/-SEM). During a mean follow-up of 15+/-1 months, 38 (17%) patients died and 45 (20%) were hospitalized due to worsening of CHF. The HRV parameter SDNN (standard deviation of all intervals between normal beats) was significantly lower in non-surviving or hospitalized than in event-free patients (118+/-6 vs 142+/-5 ms), as were LVEF (18+/-1 vs 23+/-1%), and peak oxygen uptake during exercise (peak VO(2)) (12.8+/-0.5 vs 15.6+/-0.5 ml/min/kg). While each of these parameters was a risk predictor in univariate analysis, multivariate analysis revealed that HRV provides both independent and additional prognostic information with respect to the risk 'cardiac mortality or deterioration of CHF'. It is concluded that the determination of HRV enhances the prognostic power given by the most widely used parameters LVEF and peak VO(2) in the prediction of mortality or deterioration of CHF and thus enables to improve risk stratification.

Methods, apparatus and system for notification of predictable memory failure

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2017-01-03

A method for providing notification of a predictable memory failure includes the steps of: obtaining information regarding at least one condition associated with a memory; calculating a memory failure probability as a function of the obtained information; calculating a failure probability threshold; and generating a signal when the memory failure probability exceeds the failure probability threshold, the signal being indicative of a predicted future memory failure.

Application of Single Crystal Failure Criteria: Theory and Turbine Blade Case Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sayyah, Tarek; Swanson, Gregory R.; Schonberg, W. P.

1999-01-01

The orientation of the single crystal material within a structural component is known to affect the strength and life of the part. The first stage blade of the High Pressure Fuel Turbopump (HPFTP)/ Alternative Turbopump Development (ATD), of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) was used to study the effects of secondary axis'orientation angles on the failure rate of the blade. A new failure criterion was developed based on normal and shear strains on the primary crystallographic planes. The criterion was verified using low cycle fatigue (LCF) specimen data and a finite element model of the test specimens. The criterion was then used to study ATD/HPFTP first stage blade failure events. A detailed ANSYS finite element model of the blade was used to calculate the failure parameter for the different crystallographic orientations. A total of 297 cases were run to cover a wide range of acceptable orientations within the blade. Those orientations are related to the base crystallographic coordinate system that was created in the ANSYS finite element model. Contour plots of the criterion as a function of orientation for the blade tip and attachment were obtained. Results of the analysis revealed a 40% increase in the failure parameter due to changing of the primary and secondary axes of material orientations. A comparison between failure criterion predictions and actual engine test data was then conducted. The engine test data comes from two ATD/HPFTP builds (units F3- 4B and F6-5D), which were ground tested on the SSME at the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi. Both units experienced cracking of the airfoil tips in multiple blades, but only a few cracks grew all the way across the wall of the hollow core airfoil.

Interstage Assessment of Remnant Liver Function in ALPPS Using Hepatobiliary Scintigraphy: Prediction of Posthepatectomy Liver Failure and Introduction of the HIBA Index.

PubMed

Serenari, Matteo; Collaud, Carlos; Alvarez, Fernando A; de Santibañes, Martin; Giunta, Diego; Pekolj, Juan; Ardiles, Victoria; de Santibañes, Eduardo

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate interstage liver function in associating liver partition and portal vein occlusion for staged hepatectomy (ALPPS) using hepatobiliary scintigraphy (HBS) and whether this may help to predict posthepatectomy liver failure (PHLF). ALPPS remains controversial given the high rate of liver-related mortality after stage 2. HBS combined with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) accurately estimates future liver remnant function and may be useful to predict PHLF. Between 2011 and 2016, 20 of 39 patients (51.3%) underwent SPECT-HBS before ALPPS stage 2 for primary (n = 3) or secondary liver tumors (n = 17) at the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires (HIBA). PHLF was defined by the International Study Group of Liver Surgery criteria, 50-50 criteria, or peak bilirubin >7 mg/dL. Grade A PHLF was excluded, as it requires no change in clinical management. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were used to determine cutoff for HBS parameters. Interstagely, 3 HBS parameters differed significantly between patients with (n = 4) and without PHLF (n = 16) after stage 2. Among these, the HIBA-index best predicted PHLF, with a cutoff value of 15%. The risk of PHLF in patients with cutoff <15% was 80%, whereas no patient with cutoff ≥15% developed PHLF. Interstage HBS could help to predict clinically significant PHLF after ALPPS stage 2. An HIBA-index cutoff of 15% seemed to give the best diagnostic performance. Although further studies are needed to confirm our findings, the routine application of this noninvasive low-cost examination could facilitate decision-making in institutions performing ALPPS.

Computer-Assisted Sperm Analysis (CASA) parameters and their evolution during preparation as predictors of pregnancy in intrauterine insemination with frozen-thawed donor semen cycles.

PubMed

Fréour, Thomas; Jean, Miguel; Mirallié, Sophie; Dubourdieu, Sophie; Barrière, Paul

2010-04-01

To study the potential of CASA parameters in frozen-thawed donor semen before and after preparation on silica gradient as predictors of pregnancy in IUI with donor semen cycles. CASA parameters were measured in thawed donor semen before and after preparation on a silica gradient in 132 couples undergoing 168 IUI cycles with donor semen. The evolution of these parameters throughout this process was calculated. The relationship with cycle outcome was then studied. Clinical pregnancy rate was 18.4% per cycle. CASA parameters on donor semen before or after preparation were not significantly different between pregnancy and failure groups. However, amplitude of lateral head displacement (ALH) of spermatozoa improved in all cycles where pregnancy occurred, thus predicting pregnancy with a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 20%. Even if CASA parameters do not seem to predict pregnancy in IUI with donor semen cycles, their evolution during the preparation process should be evaluated, especially for ALH. However, the link between ALH improvement during preparation process and pregnancy remains to be explored. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An accelerating precursor to predict "time-to-failure" in creep and volcanic eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Shengwang; Yang, Hang; Elsworth, Derek

2017-09-01

Real-time prediction by monitoring of the evolution of response variables is a central goal in predicting rock failure. A linear relation Ω˙Ω¨-1 = C(tf - t) has been developed to describe the time to failure, where Ω represents a response quantity, C is a constant and tf represents the failure time. Observations from laboratory creep failure experiments and precursors to volcanic eruptions are used to test the validity of the approach. Both cumulative and simple moving window techniques are developed to perform predictions and to illustrate the effects of data selection on the results. Laboratory creep failure experiments on granites show that the linear relation works well during the final approach to failure. For blind prediction, the simple moving window technique is preferred because it always uses the most recent data and excludes effects of early data deviating significantly from the predicted trend. When the predicted results show only small fluctuations, failure is imminent.

SU-F-R-10: Selecting the Optimal Solution for Multi-Objective Radiomics Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Z; Folkert, M; Wang, J

2016-06-15

Purpose: To develop an evidential reasoning approach for selecting the optimal solution from a Pareto solution set obtained by a multi-objective radiomics model for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Methods: In the multi-objective radiomics model, both sensitivity and specificity are considered as the objective functions simultaneously. A Pareto solution set with many feasible solutions will be resulted from the multi-objective optimization. In this work, an optimal solution Selection methodology for Multi-Objective radiomics Learning model using the Evidential Reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed to select the optimal solution from the Pareto solution set. The proposed SMOLER method used the evidentialmore » reasoning approach to calculate the utility of each solution based on pre-set optimal solution selection rules. The solution with the highest utility was chosen as the optimal solution. In SMOLER, an optimal learning model coupled with clonal selection algorithm was used to optimize model parameters. In this study, PET, CT image features and clinical parameters were utilized for predicting distant failure in lung SBRT. Results: Total 126 solution sets were generated by adjusting predictive model parameters. Each Pareto set contains 100 feasible solutions. The solution selected by SMOLER within each Pareto set was compared to the manually selected optimal solution. Five-cross-validation was used to evaluate the optimal solution selection accuracy of SMOLER. The selection accuracies for five folds were 80.00%, 69.23%, 84.00%, 84.00%, 80.00%, respectively. Conclusion: An optimal solution selection methodology for multi-objective radiomics learning model using the evidential reasoning approach (SMOLER) was proposed. Experimental results show that the optimal solution can be found in approximately 80% cases.« less

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing and prognosis in heart failure due to systolic left ventricular dysfunction: a validation study of the European Society of Cardiology Guidelines and Recommendations (2008) and further developments.

PubMed

Corrà, Ugo; Giordano, Andrea; Mezzani, Alessandro; Gnemmi, Marco; Pistono, Massimo; Caruso, Roberto; Giannuzzi, Pantaleo

2012-02-01

The study aims were to validate the cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) parameters recommended by the European Society of Cardiology 2008 Guidelines for risk assessment in heart failure (HF) (ESC-predictors) and to verify the predictive role of 11 supplementary CPET (S-predictors) parameters. We followed 749 HF patients for cardiovascular death and urgent heart transplantation for 3 years: 139 (19%) patients had cardiac events. ESC-predictors - peak oxygen consumption (VO(2)), slope of minute ventilation vs carbon dioxide production (VE/VCO(2)) and exertional oscillatory ventilation - were all related to outcome at univariate and multivariable analysis. The ESC/2008 prototype based on ESC-predictors presented a Harrell's C concordance index of 0.725, with a likely χ2 of 98.31. S-predictors - predicted peak VO(2), peak oxygen pulse, peak respiratory exchange ratio, peak circulatory power, peak VE/VCO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope normalized by peak VO(2), VO(2) efficiency slope, ventilatory anaerobic threshold detection, peak end-tidal CO(2) partial pressure, peak heart rate, and peak systolic arterial blood pressure (SBP) - were all linked to outcome at univariate analysis. When individually added to the ESC/2008 prototype, only peak SBP and peak O(2) pulse significantly improved the model discrimination ability: the ESC + peak SBP prototype had a Harrell's C index 0.750 and reached the highest likely χ2 (127.16, p < 0.0001). We evaluated the longest list of CPET prognostic parameters yet studied in HF: ESC-predictors were independent predictors of cardiovascular events, and the ESC prototype showed a convincing predictive capacity, whereas none of 11 S-predictors enhanced the prognostic performance, except peak SBP.

Changes in electrical and thermal parameters of led packages under different current and heating stresses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayawardena, Adikaramge Asiri

The goal of this dissertation is to identify electrical and thermal parameters of an LED package that can be used to predict catastrophic failure real-time in an application. Through an experimental study the series electrical resistance and thermal resistance were identified as good indicators of contact failure of LED packages. This study investigated the long-term changes in series electrical resistance and thermal resistance of LED packages at three different current and junction temperature stress conditions. Experiment results showed that the series electrical resistance went through four phases of change; including periods of latency, rapid increase, saturation, and finally a sharp decline just before failure. Formation of voids in the contact metallization was identified as the underlying mechanism for series resistance increase. The rate of series resistance change was linked to void growth using the theory of electromigration. The rate of increase of series resistance is dependent on temperature and current density. The results indicate that void growth occurred in the cap (Au) layer, was constrained by the contact metal (Ni) layer, preventing open circuit failure of contact metal layer. Short circuit failure occurred due to electromigration induced metal diffusion along dislocations in GaN. The increase in ideality factor, and reverse leakage current with time provided further evidence to presence of metal in the semiconductor. An empirical model was derived for estimation of LED package failure time due to metal diffusion. The model is based on the experimental results and theories of electromigration and diffusion. Furthermore, the experimental results showed that the thermal resistance of LED packages increased with aging time. A relationship between thermal resistance change rate, with case temperature and temperature gradient within the LED package was developed. The results showed that dislocation creep is responsible for creep induced plastic deformation in the die-attach solder. The temperatures inside the LED package reached the melting point of die-attach solder due to delamination just before catastrophic open circuit failure. A combined model that could estimate life of LED packages based on catastrophic failure of thermal and electrical contacts is presented for the first time. This model can be used to make a-priori or real-time estimation of LED package life based on catastrophic failure. Finally, to illustrate the usefulness of the findings from this thesis, two different implementations of real-time life prediction using prognostics and health monitoring techniques are discussed.

Prediction and Computation of Corrosion Rates of A36 Mild Steel in Oilfield Seawater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, Subir; Mondal, Rajdeep

2018-04-01

The parameters which primarily control the corrosion rate and life of steel structures are several and they vary across the different ocean and seawater as well as along the depth. While the effect of single parameter on corrosion behavior is known, the conjoint effects of multiple parameters and the interrelationship among the variables are complex. Millions sets of experiments are required to understand the mechanism of corrosion failure. Statistical modeling such as ANN is one solution that can reduce the number of experimentation. ANN model was developed using 170 sets of experimental data of A35 mild steel in simulated seawater, varying the corrosion influencing parameters SO4 2-, Cl-, HCO3 -,CO3 2-, CO2, O2, pH and temperature as input and the corrosion current as output. About 60% of experimental data were used to train the model, 20% for testing and 20% for validation. The model was developed by programming in Matlab. 80% of the validated data could predict the corrosion rate correctly. Corrosion rates predicted by the ANN model are displayed in 3D graphics which show many interesting phenomenon of the conjoint effects of multiple variables that might throw new ideas of mitigation of corrosion by simply modifying the chemistry of the constituents. The model could predict the corrosion rates of some real systems.

Internal Progressive Failure in Deep-Seated Landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yerro, Alba; Pinyol, Núria M.; Alonso, Eduardo E.

2016-06-01

Except for simple sliding motions, the stability of a slope does not depend only on the resistance of the basal failure surface. It is affected by the internal distortion of the moving mass, which plays an important role on the stability and post-failure behaviour of a landslide. The paper examines the stability conditions and the post-failure behaviour of a compound landslide whose geometry is inspired by one of the representative cross-sections of Vajont landslide. The brittleness of the mobilized rock mass was described by a strain-softening Mohr-Coulomb model, whose parameters were derived from previous contributions. The analysis was performed by means of a MPM computer code, which is capable of modelling the whole instability procedure in a unified calculation. The gravity action has been applied to initialize the stress state. This step mobilizes part of the strength along a shearing band located just above the kink of the basal surface, leading to the formation a kinematically admissible mechanism. The overall instability is triggered by an increase of water level. The increase of pore water pressures reduces the effective stresses within the slope and it leads to a progressive failure mechanism developing along an internal shearing band which controls the stability of the compound slope. The effect of the basal shearing resistance has been analysed during the post-failure stage. If no shearing strength is considered (as predicted by a thermal pressurization analysis), the model predicts a response similar to actual observations, namely a maximum sliding velocity of 25 m/s and a run-out close to 500 m.

Exercise duration and peak systolic blood pressure are predictive of mortality in ambulatory patients with mild-moderate chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Williams, Simon G; Jackson, Mark; Ng, Leong L; Barker, Diane; Patwala, Ashish; Tan, Lip-Bun

2005-01-01

It is a prevailing concept in chronic heart failure (CHF) that ventricular remodelling (evaluated via imaging) and neurohormonal activation (via biomarkers) exert major influences, such that the need to subject patients to haemodynamic evaluations and exercise testing has been questioned. We sought to investigate whether exercise and haemodynamic parameters lack independent prognostic value in a cohort of unselected ambulatory patients with mild-moderate CHF. Eighty-five consecutive patients with stable CHF in New York Heart Association functional classes I-IV, aged 55 +/- 12 years, 84% males, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 37 +/- 15%, participated in this study. Survivors were followed for a median of 5.08 years. All subjects underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing to measure standard parameters including peak oxygen consumption, exercise duration and blood pressure. A sample of venous blood was taken to determine the N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (N-BNP) level. Echocardiography was performed at rest to measure LVEF. Predictors of mortality were sought using the Cox proportional hazards model. All-cause mortality was 19% (16 deaths, 95% CI 11-29%). Age and LVEF did not independently predict mortality. Although various parameters including New York Heart Association class, peak oxygen consumption and N-BNP level were all predictive of outcome on univariate analysis, multivariate analysis identified reduced exercise duration and peak systolic blood pressure (SBP) to be the only independent predictors of all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios of 0.78 (95% CI 0.65-0.93, p = 0.007) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.95, p = 0.01) were associated with an increase in exercise duration of 1 min and 10 mm Hg peak SBP, respectively. Two simple parameters (exercise duration and peak SBP) that are easily measured by standard exercise testing are the strongest independent predictors of mortality which outperform LVEF and N-BNP in ambulatory patients with mild-moderate CHF. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A Plasticity Model to Predict the Effects of Confinement on Concrete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Julie

A plasticity model to predict the behavior of confined concrete is developed. The model is designed to implicitly account for the increase in strength and ductility due to confining a concrete member. The concrete model is implemented into a finite element (FE) model. By implicitly including the change in the strength and ductility in the material model, the confining material can be explicitly included in the FE model. Any confining material can be considered, and the effects on the concrete of failure in the confinement material can be modeled. Test data from a wide variety of different concretes utilizing different confinement methods are used to estimate the model parameters. This allows the FE model to capture the generalized behavior of concrete under multiaxial loading. The FE model is used to predict the results of tests on reinforced concrete members confined by steel hoops and fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) jackets. Loading includes pure axial load and axial load-moment combinations. Variability in the test data makes the model predictions difficult to compare but, overall, the FE model is able to capture the effects of confinement on concrete. Finally, the FE model is used to compare the performance of steel hoop to FRP confined sections, and of square to circular cross sections. As expected, circular sections are better able to engage the confining material, leading to higher strengths. However, higher strains are seen in the confining material for the circular sections. This leads to failure at lower axial strain levels in the case of the FRP confined sections. Significant differences are seen in the behavior of FRP confined members and steel hoop confined members. Failure in the FRP members is always determined by rupture in the composite jacket. As a result, the FRP members continue to take load up to failure. In contrast, the steel hoop confined sections exhibit extensive strain softening before failure. This comparison illustrates the usefulness of the concrete model as a tool for designers. Overall, the concrete model provides a flexible and powerful method to predict the performance of confined concrete.

Analyses of Buckling and Stable Tearing in Thin-Sheet Materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seshadri, B. R.; Newman, J. C., Jr.

1998-01-01

This paper was to verify the STAGS (general shell, geometric and material nonlinear) code and the critical crack tip opening angle (CTOA) fracture criterion for predicting stable tearing in cracked panels that fail with severe out of plane buckling. Materials considered ranged from brittle to ductile behavior. Test data used in this study are reported elsewhere. The STAGS code was used to model stable tearing using a critical CTOA value that was determined from a cracked panel that was 'restrained' from buckling. ne analysis methodology was then used to predict the influence of buckling on stable tearing and failure loads. Parameters like crack length to specimen width ratio, crack configuration, thickness, and material tensile properties had a significant influence on the buckling behavior of cracked thin sheet materials. Experimental and predicted results showed a varied buckling response for different crack length to sheet thickness ratios because different buckling modes were activated. Effects of material tensile properties and fracture toughness on buckling response were presented. The STAGS code and the CTOA fracture criterion were able to predict the influence of buckling on stable tearing behavior and failure loads on a variety of materials and crack configurations.

Predictive Performance of Echocardiographic Parameters for Cardiovascular Events Among Elderly Treated Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Enayet K; Jennings, Garry L R; Dewar, Elizabeth; Wing, Lindon M H; Reid, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Hypertension leads to cardiac structural and functional changes, commonly assessed by echocardiography. In this study, we assessed the predictive performance of different echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on future cardiovascular outcomes in elderly hypertensive patients without heart failure. Data from LVH substudy of the Second Australian National Blood Pressure trial were used. Echocardiograms were performed at entry into the study. Cardiovascular outcomes were identified over short term (median 4.2 years) and long term (median 10.9 years). LVH was defined using threshold values of LV mass (LVM) indexed to either body surface area (BSA) or height(2.7): >115/95g/m(2) (LVH-BSA(115/95)) or ≥49/45g/m(2.7) (LVH-ht(49/45)) in males/females, respectively, and ≥125g/m(2) (LVH-BSA(125)) or ≥51g/m(2.7) (LVH-ht(51)) for both sexes. In the 666 participants aged ≥65 years in this analysis, LVH prevalence at baseline was 33%-70% depending on definition; and after adjusting for potential risk factors, only LVH-BSA(115/95) predicted both short- and long-term cardiovascular outcomes. Participants having LVH-BSA(115/95) (69%) at baseline had twice the risk of having any first cardiovascular event over the short term (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 2.00, 1.12-3.57, P = 0.02) and any fatal cardiovascular events (2.11, 1.21-3.68, P = 0.01) over the longer term. Among other echocardiographic parameters, LVM and LVM indexed to either BSA or height(2.7) predicted cardiovascular events over both short and longer term. In elderly treated hypertensive patients without heart failure, determining LVH by echocardiography is highly dependent on the methodology adopted. LVH-BSA(115/95) is a reliable predictor of future cardiovascular outcomes in the elderly. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The significance of serum urea and renal function in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Gotsman, Israel; Zwas, Donna; Planer, David; Admon, Dan; Lotan, Chaim; Keren, Andre

2010-07-01

Renal function and urea are frequently abnormal in patients with heart failure (HF) and are predictive of increased mortality. The relative importance of each parameter is less clear. We prospectively compared the predictive value of renal function and serum urea on clinical outcome in patients with HF. Patients hospitalized with definite clinical diagnosis of HF (n = 355) were followed for short-term (1 yr) and long-term (mean, 6.5 yr) survival and HF rehospitalization. Increasing tertiles of discharge estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were an independent predictor of increased long-term survival (hazard ratio [HR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47-0.91; p = 0.01) but not short-term survival. Admission and discharge serum urea and blood urea nitrogen (BUN)/creatinine ratio were predictors of reduced short- and long-term survival on multivariate Cox regression analysis. Increasing tertiles of discharge urea were a predictor of reduced 1-year survival (HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.21-3.73; p = 0.009) and long-term survival (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.37-2.71; p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis including discharge eGFR and serum urea demonstrated that only serum urea remained a significant predictor of long-term survival; however, eGFR and BUN/creatinine ratio were both independently predictive of survival. Urea was more discriminative than eGFR in predicting long-term survival by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.803 vs. 0.787; p = 0.01). Increasing tertiles of discharge serum urea and BUN/creatinine were independent predictors of HF rehospitalization and combined death and HF rehospitalization. This study suggests that serum urea is a more powerful predictor of survival than eGFR in patients with HF. This may be due to urea's relation to key biological parameters including renal, hemodynamic, and neurohormonal parameters pertaining to the overall clinical status of the patient with chronic HF.

Predictive value of early postoperative IOP and bleb morphology in Mitomycin-C augmented trabeculectomy.

PubMed

Esfandiari, Hamed; Pakravan, Mohammad; Loewen, Nils A; Yaseri, Mehdi

2017-01-01

Background : To determine the predictive value of postoperative bleb morphological features and intraocular pressure (IOP) on the success rate of trabeculectomy. Methods : In this prospective interventional case series, we analyzed for one year 80 consecutive primary open angle glaucoma patients who underwent mitomycin-augmented trabeculectomy. Bleb morphology was scored using the Indiana bleb appearance grading scale (IBAGS). Success was defined as IOP ≤15 mmHg at 12 months. We applied a multivariable regression analysis and determined the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results : The mean age of participants was 62±12.3 years in the success and 63.2±16.3 years in the failure group (P= 0.430) with equal gender distribution (P=0.911). IOPs on day 1, 7 and 30 were similar in both (P= 0.193, 0.639, and 0.238, respectively.) The AUC of IOP at day 1, day 7 and 30 for predicting a successful outcome was 0.355, 0.452, and 0.80, respectively. The AUC for bleb morphology parameters of bleb height, extension, and vascularization, on day 14 were 0.368, 0.408, and 0.549, respectively. Values for day 30 were 0.428, 0.563, and 0.654. IOP change from day 1 to day 30 was a good predictor of failure (AUC=0.838, 95% CI: 0.704 to 0.971) with a change of more than 3 mmHg predicting failure with a sensitivity of 82.5% (95% CI: 68 to 91%) and a specificity of 87.5% (95% CI: 53 to 98%). Conclusions : IOP on day 30 had a fair to good accuracy while bleb features failed to predict success except bleb vascularity that had a poor to fair accuracy.  An IOP increase more than 3 mmHg during the first 30 days was a good predictor of failure.

Early and simple detection of diastolic dysfunction during weaning from mechanical ventilation

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Weaning from mechanical ventilation imposes additional work on the cardiovascular system and can provoke or unmask left ventricular diastolic dysfunction with consecutive pulmonary edema or systolic dysfunction with inadequate increase of cardiac output and unsuccessful weaning. Echocardiography, which is increasingly used for hemodynamic assessment of critically ill patients, allows differentiation between systolic and diastolic failure. For various reasons, transthoracic echocardiographic assessment was limited to patients with good echo visibility and to those with sinus rhythm without excessive tachycardia. In these patients, often selected after unsuccessful weaning, echocardiographic findings were predictive for weaning failure of cardiac origin. In some studies, patients with various degrees of systolic dysfunction were included, making evaluation of the diastolic dysfunction to the weaning failure even more difficult. The recent study by Moschietto and coworkers included unselected patients and used very simple diastolic variables for assessment of diastolic function. They also included patients with atrial fibrillation and repeated echocardiographic examination only 10 minutes after starting a spontaneous breathing trial. The main finding was that weaning failure was not associated with systolic dysfunction but with diastolic dysfunction. By measuring simple and robust parameters for detection of diastolic dysfunction, the study was able to predict weaning failure in patients with sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation as early as 10 minutes after beginning a spontaneous breathing trial. Further studies are necessary to determine whether appropriate treatment tailored according to the echocardiographic findings will result in successful weaning. PMID:22770365

Early and simple detection of diastolic dysfunction during weaning from mechanical ventilation.

PubMed

Voga, Gorazd

2012-07-06

Weaning from mechanical ventilation imposes additional work on the cardiovascular system and can provoke or unmask left ventricular diastolic dysfunction with consecutive pulmonary edema or systolic dysfunction with inadequate increase of cardiac output and unsuccessful weaning. Echocardiography, which is increasingly used for hemodynamic assessment of critically ill patients, allows differentiation between systolic and diastolic failure. For various reasons, transthoracic echocardiographic assessment was limited to patients with good echo visibility and to those with sinus rhythm without excessive tachycardia. In these patients, often selected after unsuccessful weaning, echocardiographic findings were predictive for weaning failure of cardiac origin. In some studies, patients with various degrees of systolic dysfunction were included, making evaluation of the diastolic dysfunction to the weaning failure even more difficult. The recent study by Moschietto and coworkers included unselected patients and used very simple diastolic variables for assessment of diastolic function. They also included patients with atrial fibrillation and repeated echocardiographic examination only 10 minutes after starting a spontaneous breathing trial. The main finding was that weaning failure was not associated with systolic dysfunction but with diastolic dysfunction. By measuring simple and robust parameters for detection of diastolic dysfunction, the study was able to predict weaning failure in patients with sinus rhythm and atrial fibrillation as early as 10 minutes after beginning a spontaneous breathing trial. Further studies are necessary to determine whether appropriate treatment tailored according to the echocardiographic findings will result in successful weaning.

Effect of ion exchange on strength and slow crack growth of a dental porcelain.

PubMed

Rosa, Vinicius; Yoshimura, Humberto N; Pinto, Marcelo M; Fredericci, Catia; Cesar, Paulo F

2009-06-01

To determine the effect of ion exchange on slow crack growth (SCG) parameters (n, stress corrosion susceptibility coefficient, and sigma(f0), scaling parameter) and Weibull parameters (m, Weibull modulus, and sigma(0), characteristic strength) of a dental porcelain. 160 porcelain discs were fabricated according to manufacturer's instructions, polished through 1 microm and divided into two groups: GC (control) and GI (submitted to an ion exchange procedure using a KNO3 paste at 470 degrees C for 15 min). SCG parameters were determined by biaxial flexural strength test in artificial saliva at 37 degrees C using five constant stress rates (n=10). 20 specimens of each group were tested at 1 MPa/s to determine Weibull parameters. The SPT diagram was constructed using the least-squares fit of the strength data versus probability of failure. Mean values of m and sigma(0) (95% confidence interval), n and sigma(f0) (standard deviation) were, respectively: 13.8 (10.1-18.8) and 60.4 (58.5-62.2), 24.1 (2.5) and 58.1 (0.01) for GC and 7.4 (5.3-10.0) and 136.8 (129.1-144.7), 36.7 (7.3) and 127.9 (0.01) for GI. Fracture stresses (MPa) calculated using the SPT diagram for lifetimes of 1 day, 1 year and 10 years (at a 5% failure probability) were, respectively, 31.8, 24.9 and 22.7 for GC and 71.2, 60.6 and 56.9 for GI. For the porcelain tested, the ion exchange process improved strength and resistance to SCG, however, the material's reliability decreased. The predicted fracture stress at 5% failure probability for a lifetime of 10 years was also higher for the ion treated group.

Evaluation of a Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.; Knight, Norman F., Jr.; Wang, John T.

1997-01-01

A progressive failure analysis methodology has been developed for predicting the nonlinear response and failure of laminated composite structures. The progressive failure analysis uses C plate and shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms. The progressive failure analysis model is implemented into a general purpose finite element code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure.

Methods for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, Joseph S.; O'Connor, Jim E.

1997-01-01

Floods from failures of natural and constructed dams constitute a widespread hazard to people and property. Expeditious means of assessing flood hazards are necessary, particularly in the case of natural dams, which may form suddenly and unexpectedly. We revise statistical relations (derived from data for past constructed and natural dam failures) between peak discharge (Qp) and water volume released (V0) or drop in lake level (d) but assert that such relations, even when cast into a dimensionless form, are of limited utility because they fail to portray the effect of breach-formation rate. We then analyze a simple, physically based model of dam-breach formation to show that the hydrograph at the breach depends primarily on a dimensionless parameter η=kV0/gl/2d7/2, where k is the mean erosion rate of the breach and g is acceleration due to gravity. The functional relationship between Qp and η takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether η ≪ 1 (relatively slow breach formation or small lake volume) or η ≫ 1 (relatively fast breach formation or large lake volume). Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k, and thus η, can be estimated. The theory thus provides a rapid means of predicting the plausible range of values of peak discharge at the breach in an earthen dam as long as the impounded water volume and the water depth at the dam face can be estimated.

Adaptive Reliable Routing Protocol Using Combined Link Stability Estimation for Mobile Ad hoc Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vadivel, R.; Bhaskaran, V. Murali

2010-10-01

The main reason for packet loss in ad hoc networks is the link failure or node failure. In order to increase the path stability, it is essential to distinguish and moderate the failures. By knowing individual link stability along a path, path stability can be identified. In this paper, we develop an adaptive reliable routing protocol using combined link stability estimation for mobile ad hoc networks. The main objective of this protocol is to determine a Quality of Service (QoS) path along with prolonging the network life time and to reduce the packet loss. We calculate a combined metric for a path based on the parameters Link Expiration Time, Node Remaining Energy and Node Velocity and received signal strength to predict the link stability or lifetime. Then, a bypass route is established to retransmit the lost data, when a link failure occurs. By simulation results, we show that the proposed reliable routing protocol achieves high delivery ratio with reduced delay and packet drop.

Failure Study of Composite Materials by the Yeh-Stratton Criterion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Hsien-Yang; Richards, W. Lance

1997-01-01

The newly developed Yeh-Stratton (Y-S) Strength Criterion was used to study the failure of composite materials with central holes and normal cracks. To evaluate the interaction parameters for the Y-S failure theory, it is necessary to perform several biaxial loading tests. However, it is indisputable that the inhomogeneous and anisotropic nature of composite materials have made their own contribution to the complication of the biaxial testing problem. To avoid the difficulties of performing many biaxial tests and still consider the effects of the interaction term in the Y-S Criterion, a simple modification of the Y-S Criterion was developed. The preliminary predictions by the modified Y-S Criterion were relatively conservative compared to the testing data. Thus, the modified Y-S Criterion could be used as a design tool. To further understand the composite failure problem, an investigation of the damage zone in front of the crack tip coupled with the Y-S Criterion is imperative.

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Stress Rupture Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, Nathanael J.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Leifeste, Mark R.; Yoder, Tommy B.; Keddy, Chris P.; Forth, Scott C.; Russell, Rick W.

2010-01-01

This paper reports stress rupture testing of Kevlar(TradeMark) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) at NASA White Sands Test Facility. This 6-year test program was part of the larger effort to predict and extend the lifetime of flight vessels. Tests were performed to characterize control parameters for stress rupture testing, and vessel life was predicted by statistical modeling. One highly instrumented 102-cm (40-in.) diameter Kevlar(TradeMark) COPV was tested to failure (burst) as a single-point model verification. Significant data were generated that will enhance development of improved NDE methods and predictive modeling techniques, and thus better address stress rupture and other composite durability concerns that affect pressure vessel safety, reliability and mission assurance.

Retrospective forecast of ETAS model with daily parameters estimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falcone, Giuseppe; Murru, Maura; Console, Rodolfo; Marzocchi, Warner; Zhuang, Jiancang

2016-04-01

We present a retrospective ETAS (Epidemic Type of Aftershock Sequence) model based on the daily updating of free parameters during the background, the learning and the test phase of a seismic sequence. The idea was born after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. The CSEP (Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability) Center in Japan provided an appropriate testing benchmark for the five 1-day submitted models. Of all the models, only one was able to successfully predict the number of events that really happened. This result was verified using both the real time and the revised catalogs. The main cause of the failure was in the underestimation of the forecasted events, due to model parameters maintained fixed during the test. Moreover, the absence in the learning catalog of an event similar to the magnitude of the mainshock (M9.0), which drastically changed the seismicity in the area, made the learning parameters not suitable to describe the real seismicity. As an example of this methodological development we show the evolution of the model parameters during the last two strong seismic sequences in Italy: the 2009 L'Aquila and the 2012 Reggio Emilia episodes. The achievement of the model with daily updated parameters is compared with that of same model where the parameters remain fixed during the test time.

Non-Markovianity in atom-surface dispersion forces

DOE PAGES

Intravaia, F.; Behunin, R. O.; Henkel, C.; ...

2016-10-18

Here, we discuss the failure of the Markov approximation in the description of atom-surface fluctuation-induced interactions, both in equilibrium (Casimir-Polder forces) and out of equilibrium (quantum friction). Using general theoretical arguments, we show that the Markov approximation can lead to erroneous predictions of such phenomena with regard to both strength and functional dependencies on system parameters. Particularly, we show that the long-time power-law tails of two-time dipole correlations and their corresponding low-frequency behavior, neglected in the Markovian limit, affect the prediction of the force. These findings highlight the importance of non-Markovian effects in dispersion interactions.

Compaction of North-sea chalk by pore-failure and pressure solution in a producing reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Daniel; Dysthe, Dag; Jamtveit, Bjorn

2016-02-01

The Ekofisk field, Norwegian North sea,is an example of compacting chalk reservoir with considerable subsequent seafloor subsidence due to petroleum production. Previously, a number of models were created to predict the compaction using different phenomenological approaches. Here we present a different approach, we use a new creep model based on microscopic mechanisms with no fitting parameters to predict strain rate at core scale and at reservoir scale. The model is able to reproduce creep experiments and the magnitude of the observed subsidence making it the first microstructural model which can explain the Ekofisk compaction.

Non-Markovianity in atom-surface dispersion forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Intravaia, F.; Behunin, R. O.; Henkel, C.; Busch, K.; Dalvit, D. A. R.

2016-10-01

We discuss the failure of the Markov approximation in the description of atom-surface fluctuation-induced interactions, both in equilibrium (Casimir-Polder forces) and out of equilibrium (quantum friction). Using general theoretical arguments, we show that the Markov approximation can lead to erroneous predictions of such phenomena with regard to both strength and functional dependencies on system parameters. In particular, we show that the long-time power-law tails of two-time dipole correlations and their corresponding low-frequency behavior, neglected in the Markovian limit, affect the prediction of the force. Our findings highlight the importance of non-Markovian effects in dispersion interactions.

GCRBS score: a new scoring system for predicting outcome in severe falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Mohapatra, Biranchi Narayan; Jangid, Sanjay Kumar; Mohanty, Rina

2014-01-01

Severe falciparum malaria is a critical illness resulting in multi-organ dysfunction and death. Severe malaria is defined by the World Health Organisation as a qualitative variable. The purpose of this study is to devise a scoring system for predicting outcome in severe falciparum malaria. 112 cases of severe falciparum malaria diagnosed as per the WHO criteria, were evaluated to determine the parameters which were significantly associated with mortality. Of all the parameters studied, five variables namely cerebral malaria (GCS < 11), Renal failure (Creatinine > 3 mg/dl), Respiratory distress (Respiratory rate > 24/min), Jaundice (Bilirubin >10 mg/dl) and Shock (Systolic BP < 90 mm of Hg) were all found to be associated with a poor prognosis. The five selected parameters were analysed using the Odds ratio and a new scoring system named as GCRBS score was designed with a possible score from 0-10. With a cut-off score of 5, the GCRBS score predicted mortality with a sensitivity of 85.3% and a specificity of 95.6%. The GCRBS score is easy to calculate and apply. Of the 5 parameters, 3 are clinical which can be determined at bedside and only 2 are biochemical which can be done in any laboratory.The most important advantage of this scoring system is that all the 5 parameters are to be assessed quantitatively for allotting a score, which would eliminate the possibility of observer bias.

Surface flaw reliability analysis of ceramic components with the SCARE finite element postprocessor program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, John P.; Nemeth, Noel N.

1987-01-01

The SCARE (Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation) computer program on statistical fast fracture reliability analysis with quadratic elements for volume distributed imperfections is enhanced to include the use of linear finite elements and the capability of designing against concurrent surface flaw induced ceramic component failure. The SCARE code is presently coupled as a postprocessor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose, finite element analysis program. The improved version now includes the Weibull and Batdorf statistical failure theories for both surface and volume flaw based reliability analysis. The program uses the two-parameter Weibull fracture strength cumulative failure probability distribution model with the principle of independent action for poly-axial stress states, and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive statistical theories. The shear-sensitive surface crack configurations include the Griffith crack and Griffith notch geometries, using the total critical coplanar strain energy release rate criterion to predict mixed-mode fracture. Weibull material parameters based on both surface and volume flaw induced fracture can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and grouped fracture data. The statistical fast fracture theories for surface flaw induced failure, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeow, Y. T.

1980-01-01

A 'material modeling' methodology for predicting the creep rupture behavior of unidirectional advanced composites is proposed. In this approach the parameters (obtained from short-term tests) required to make the predictions are the three principal creep compliance master curves and their corresponding quasi-static strengths tested at room temperature (22 C). Using these parameters in conjunction with a failure criterion, creep rupture envelopes can be generated for any combination of in-plane loading conditions and ambient temperature. The analysis was validated experimentally for one composite system, the T300/934 graphite-epoxy system. This was done by performing short-term creep tests (to generate the principal creep compliance master curves with the time-temperature superposition principle) and relatively long-term creep rupture tensile tests of off-axis specimens at 180 C. Good to reasonable agreement between experimental and analytical results is observed.

Is it beneficial to approximate pre-failure topography to predict landslide susceptibility with empirical models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Schmaltz, Elmar; Glade, Thomas

2017-04-01

Empirical landslide susceptibility maps spatially depict the areas where future slope failures are likely due to specific environmental conditions. The underlying statistical models are based on the assumption that future landsliding is likely to occur under similar circumstances (e.g. topographic conditions, lithology, land cover) as past slope failures. This principle is operationalized by applying a supervised classification approach (e.g. a regression model with a binary response: landslide presence/absence) that enables discrimination between conditions that favored past landslide occurrences and the circumstances typical for landslide absences. The derived empirical relation is then transferred to each spatial unit of an area. Literature reveals that the specific topographic conditions representative for landslide presences are frequently extracted from derivatives of digital terrain models at locations were past landslides were mapped. The underlying morphology-based landslide identification becomes possible due to the fact that the topography at a specific locality usually changes after landslide occurrence (e.g. hummocky surface, concave and steep scarp). In a strict sense, this implies that topographic predictors used within conventional statistical landslide susceptibility models relate to post-failure topographic conditions - and not to the required pre-failure situation. This study examines the assumption that models calibrated on the basis of post-failure topographies may not be appropriate to predict future landslide locations, because (i) post-failure and pre-failure topographic conditions may differ and (ii) areas were future landslides will occur do not yet exhibit such a distinct post-failure morphology. The study was conducted for an area located in the Walgau region (Vorarlberg, western Austria), where a detailed inventory consisting of shallow landslides was available. The methodology comprised multiple systematic comparisons of models generated on the basis of post-failure conditions (i.e. the standard approach) with models based on an approximated pre-failure topography. Pre-failure topography was approximated by (i) erasing the area of mapped landslide polygons within a digital terrain model and (ii) filling these "empty" areas by interpolating elevation points located outside the mapped landslides. Landslide presence information was extracted from the respective landslide scarp locations while an equal number of randomly sampled points represented landslide absences. After an initial exploratory data analysis, mixed-effects logistic regression was applied to model landslide susceptibility on the basis of two predictor sets (post-failure versus pre-failure predictors). Furthermore, all analyses were separately conducted for five different modelling resolutions to elaborate the suspicion that the degree of generalization of topographic parameters may as well play a role on how the respective models may differ. Model evaluation was conducted by means of multiple procedures (i.e. odds ratios, k-fold cross validation, permutation-based variable importance, difference maps of predictions). The results revealed that models based on highest resolutions (e.g. 1 m, 2.5 m) and post-failure topography performed best from a purely quantitative perspective. A confrontation of models (post-failure versus pre-failure based models) based on an identical modelling resolution exposed that validation results, modelled relationships as well as the prediction pattern tended to converge with a decreasing raster resolution. Based on the results, we concluded that an approximation of pre-failure topography does not significantly contribute to improved landslide susceptibility models in the case (i) the underlying inventory consists of small landslide features and (ii) the models are based on coarse raster resolutions (e.g. 25 m). However, in the case modelling with high raster resolutions is envisaged (e.g. 1 m, 2.5 m) or the inventory mainly consists of larger events, a reconstruction of pre-failure conditions might be highly expedient, even though conventional validation results might indicate an opposite tendency. Finally, we recommend to consider that topographic predictors highly useful to detect past slope movements (e.g. roughness) are not necessarily valuable to predict future slope instabilities.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

English, Shawn Allen; Nelson, Stacy Michelle; Briggs, Timothy

Presented is a model verification and validation effort using low - velocity impact (LVI) of carbon fiber reinforced polymer laminate experiments. A flat cylindrical indenter impacts the laminate with enough energy to produce delamination, matrix cracks and fiber breaks. Included in the experimental efforts are ultrasonic scans of the damage for qualitative validation of the models. However, the primary quantitative metrics of validation are the force time history measured through the instrumented indenter and initial and final velocities. The simulations, whi ch are run on Sandia's Sierra finite element codes , consist of all physics and material parameters of importancemore » as determined by a sensitivity analysis conducted on the LVI simulation. A novel orthotropic damage and failure constitutive model that is cap able of predicting progressive composite damage and failure is described in detail and material properties are measured, estimated from micromechanics or optimized through calibration. A thorough verification and calibration to the accompanying experiment s are presented. Specia l emphasis is given to the four - point bend experiment. For all simulations of interest, the mesh and material behavior is verified through extensive convergence studies. An ensemble of simulations incorporating model parameter unc ertainties is used to predict a response distribution which is then compared to experimental output. The result is a quantifiable confidence in material characterization and model physics when simulating this phenomenon in structures of interest.« less

A Numerical Multiscale Framework for Modeling Patient-Specific Coronary Artery Bypass Surgeries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramachandra, Abhay B.; Kahn, Andrew; Marsden, Alison

2014-11-01

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is performed to revascularize diseased coronary arteries, using arterial, venous or synthetic grafts. Vein grafts, used in more than 70% of procedures, have failure rates as high as 50% in less than 10 years. Hemodynamics is known to play a key role in the mechano-biological response of vein grafts, but current non-invasive imaging techniques cannot fully characterize the hemodynamic and biomechanical environment. We numerically compute hemodynamics and wall mechanics in patient-specific 3D CABG geometries using stabilized finite element methods. The 3D patient-specific domain is coupled to a 0D lumped parameter circulatory model and parameters are tuned to match patient-specific blood pressures, stroke volumes, heart rates and heuristic flow-split values. We quantify differences in hemodynamics between arterial and venous grafts and discuss possible correlations to graft failure. Extension to a deformable wall approximation will also be discussed. The quantification of wall mechanics and hemodynamics is a necessary step towards coupling continuum models in solid and fluid mechanics with the cellular and sub-cellular responses of grafts, which in turn, should lead to a more accurate prediction of the long term outcome of CABG surgeries, including predictions of growth and remodeling.

Energy absorption capability and crashworthiness of composite material structures: A review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carruthers, J.J.; Kettle, A.P.; Robinson, A.M.

1998-10-01

The controlled brittle failure of thermosetting fiber-reinforced polymer composites can provide a very efficient energy absorption mechanism. Consequently, the use of these materials in crashworthy vehicle designs has been the subject of considerable interest. In this respect, their more widespread application has been limited by the complexity of their collapse behavior. This article reviews the current level of understanding i this field, including the correlations between failure mode and energy absorption, the principal material, geometric, and physical parameters relevant to crashworthy design and methods of predicting the energy absorption capability of polymer composites. Areas which require further investigation are identified.more » This review article contains 70 references.« less

Investigations of Low Temperature Time Dependent Cracking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van der Sluys, W A; Robitz, E S; Young, B A

2002-09-30

The objective of this project was to investigate metallurgical and mechanical phenomena associated with time dependent cracking of cold bent carbon steel piping at temperatures between 327 C and 360 C. Boiler piping failures have demonstrated that understanding the fundamental metallurgical and mechanical parameters controlling these failures is insufficient to eliminate it from the field. The results of the project consisted of the development of a testing methodology to reproduce low temperature time dependent cracking in laboratory specimens. This methodology was used to evaluate the cracking resistance of candidate heats in order to identify the factors that enhance cracking sensitivity.more » The resultant data was integrated into current available life prediction tools.« less

Accretion mode of oceanic ridges governed by axial mechanical strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibrant, A. L. R.; Mittelstaedt, E.; Davaille, A.; Pauchard, L.; Aubertin, A.; Auffray, L.; Pidoux, R.

2018-04-01

Oceanic spreading ridges exhibit structural changes as a function of spreading rate, mantle temperature and the balance of tectonic and magmatic accretion. The role that these or other processes have in governing the overall shape of oceanic ridges is unclear. Here, we use laboratory experiments to simulate ridge spreading in colloidal aqueous dispersions whose rheology evolves from purely viscous to elastic and brittle when placed in contact with a saline water solution. We find that ridge shape becomes increasingly linear with spreading rate until reaching a minimum tortuosity. This behaviour is predicted by the axial failure parameter ΠF, a dimensionless number describing the balance of brittle and plastic failure of axial lithosphere. Slow-spreading, fault-dominated and fast-spreading, fluid intrusion-dominated ridges on Earth and in the laboratory are separated by the same critical ΠF value, suggesting that the axial failure mode governs ridge geometry. Values of ΠF can also be calculated for different mantle temperatures and applied to other planets or the early Earth. For higher mantle temperatures during the Archaean, our results preclude the predicted formation of large tectonic plates at high spreading velocity.

Advanced non-contrasted computed tomography post-processing by CT-Calculometry (CT-CM) outperforms established predictors for the outcome of shock wave lithotripsy.

PubMed

Langenauer, J; Betschart, P; Hechelhammer, L; Güsewell, S; Schmid, H P; Engeler, D S; Abt, D; Zumstein, V

2018-05-29

To evaluate the predictive value of advanced non-contrasted computed tomography (NCCT) post-processing using novel CT-calculometry (CT-CM) parameters compared to established predictors of success of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) for urinary calculi. NCCT post-processing was retrospectively performed in 312 patients suffering from upper tract urinary calculi who were treated by SWL. Established predictors such as skin to stone distance, body mass index, stone diameter or mean stone attenuation values were assessed. Precise stone size and shape metrics, 3-D greyscale measurements and homogeneity parameters such as skewness and kurtosis, were analysed using CT-CM. Predictive values for SWL outcome were analysed using logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics. Overall success rate (stone disintegration and no re-intervention needed) of SWL was 59% (184 patients). CT-CM metrics mainly outperformed established predictors. According to ROC analyses, stone volume and surface area performed better than established stone diameter, mean 3D attenuation value was a stronger predictor than established mean attenuation value, and parameters skewness and kurtosis performed better than recently emerged variation coefficient of stone density. Moreover, prediction of SWL outcome with 80% probability to be correct would be possible in a clearly higher number of patients (up to fivefold) using CT-CM-derived parameters. Advanced NCCT post-processing by CT-CM provides novel parameters that seem to outperform established predictors of SWL response. Implementation of these parameters into clinical routine might reduce SWL failure rates.

Developing a Graphical User Interface to Automate the Estimation and Prediction of Risk Values for Flood Protective Structures using Artificial Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M.; Helal, A.; Gabr, M.

2014-12-01

In this project, we focus on providing a computer-automated platform for a better assessment of the potential failures and retrofit measures of flood-protecting earth structures, e.g., dams and levees. Such structures play an important role during extreme flooding events as well as during normal operating conditions. Furthermore, they are part of other civil infrastructures such as water storage and hydropower generation. Hence, there is a clear need for accurate evaluation of stability and functionality levels during their service lifetime so that the rehabilitation and maintenance costs are effectively guided. Among condition assessment approaches based on the factor of safety, the limit states (LS) approach utilizes numerical modeling to quantify the probability of potential failures. The parameters for LS numerical modeling include i) geometry and side slopes of the embankment, ii) loading conditions in terms of rate of rising and duration of high water levels in the reservoir, and iii) cycles of rising and falling water levels simulating the effect of consecutive storms throughout the service life of the structure. Sample data regarding the correlations of these parameters are available through previous research studies. We have unified these criteria and extended the risk assessment in term of loss of life through the implementation of a graphical user interface to automate input parameters that divides data into training and testing sets, and then feeds them into Artificial Neural Network (ANN) tool through MATLAB programming. The ANN modeling allows us to predict risk values of flood protective structures based on user feedback quickly and easily. In future, we expect to fine-tune the software by adding extensive data on variations of parameters.

The dynamic failure behavior of tungsten heavy alloys subjected to transverse loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarcza, Kenneth Robert

Tungsten heavy alloys (WHA), a category of particulate composites used in defense applications as kinetic energy penetrators, have been studied for many years. Even so, their dynamic failure behavior is not fully understood and cannot be predicted by numerical models presently in use. In this experimental investigation, a comprehensive understanding of the high-rate transverse-loading fracture behavior of WHA has been developed. Dynamic fracture events spanning a range of strain rates and loading conditions were created via mechanical testing and used to determine the influence of surface condition and microstructure on damage initiation, accumulation, and sample failure under different loading conditions. Using standard scanning electron microscopy metallographic and fractographic techniques, sample surface condition is shown to be extremely influential to the manner in which WHA fails, causing a fundamental change from externally to internally nucleated failures as surface condition is improved. Surface condition is characterized using electron microscopy and surface profilometry. Fracture surface analysis is conducted using electron microscopy, and linear elastic fracture mechanics is used to understand the influence of surface condition, specifically initial flaw size, on sample failure behavior. Loading conditions leading to failure are deduced from numerical modeling and experimental observation. The results highlight parameters and considerations critical to the understanding of dynamic WHA fracture and the development of dynamic WHA failure models.

A model for predicting the shear bearing capacity of FRP-strengthened beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sas, G.; Carolin, A.; Täljsten, B.

2008-05-01

The shear failure of reinforced concrete beams needs more attention than the bending failure since no or only small warning precedes the failure. For this reason, it is of utmost importance to understand the shear bearing capacity and also to be able to undertake significant rehabilitation work if necessary. In this paper, a design model for the shear strengthening of concrete beams by using fiber-reinforced polymers (FRP) is presented, and the limitations of the truss model analogy are highlighted. The fracture mechanics approach is used in analyzing the bond behavior between the FRP composites and concrete. The fracture energy of concrete and the axial rigidity of the FRP are considered to be the most important parameters. The effective strain in the FRP when the debonding occurs is determined. The limitations of the anchorage length over the cross section are analyzed. A simple iterative design method for the shear debonding is finally proposed.

Automated Bone Screw Tightening to Adaptive Levels of Stripping Torque.

PubMed

Reynolds, Karen J; Mohtar, Aaron A; Cleek, Tammy M; Ryan, Melissa K; Hearn, Trevor C

2017-06-01

To use relationships between tightening parameters, related to bone quality, to develop an automated system that determines and controls the level of screw tightening. An algorithm relating current at head contact (IHC) to current at construct failure (Imax) was developed. The algorithm was used to trigger cessation of screw insertion at a predefined tightening level, in real time, between head contact and maximum current. The ability of the device to stop at the predefined level was assessed. The mean (±SD) current at which screw insertion ceased was calculated to be [51.47 ± 9.75% × (Imax - IHC)] + IHC, with no premature bone failures. A smart screwdriver was developed that uses the current from the motor driving the screw to predict the current at which the screw will strip the bone threads. The device was implemented and was able to achieve motor shut-off and cease tightening at a predefined threshold, with no premature bone failures.

Minimizing the cost of translocation failure with decision-tree models that predict species' behavioral response in translocation sites.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, Mehregan; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil; Bull, C Michael

2015-08-01

The high number of failures is one reason why translocation is often not recommended. Considering how behavior changes during translocations may improve translocation success. To derive decision-tree models for species' translocation, we used data on the short-term responses of an endangered Australian skink in 5 simulated translocations with different release conditions. We used 4 different decision-tree algorithms (decision tree, decision-tree parallel, decision stump, and random forest) with 4 different criteria (gain ratio, information gain, gini index, and accuracy) to investigate how environmental and behavioral parameters may affect the success of a translocation. We assumed behavioral changes that increased dispersal away from a release site would reduce translocation success. The trees became more complex when we included all behavioral parameters as attributes, but these trees yielded more detailed information about why and how dispersal occurred. According to these complex trees, there were positive associations between some behavioral parameters, such as fight and dispersal, that showed there was a higher chance, for example, of dispersal among lizards that fought than among those that did not fight. Decision trees based on parameters related to release conditions were easier to understand and could be used by managers to make translocation decisions under different circumstances. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Predicting Failure Under Laboratory Conditions: Learning the Physics of Slow Frictional Slip and Dynamic Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Riviere, J.; Lubbers, N.; Barros, K.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

2016-12-01

Forecasting failure is a primary goal in diverse domains that include earthquake physics, materials science, nondestructive evaluation of materials and other engineering applications. Due to the highly complex physics of material failure and limitations on gathering data in the failure nucleation zone, this goal has often appeared out of reach; however, recent advances in instrumentation sensitivity, instrument density and data analysis show promise toward forecasting failure times. Here, we show that we can predict frictional failure times of both slow and fast stick slip failure events in the laboratory. This advance is made possible by applying a machine learning approach known as Random Forests1(RF) to the continuous acoustic emission (AE) time series recorded by detectors located on the fault blocks. The RF is trained using a large number of statistical features derived from the AE time series signal. The model is then applied to data not previously analyzed. Remarkably, we find that the RF method predicts upcoming failure time far in advance of a stick slip event, based only on a short time window of data. Further, the algorithm accurately predicts the time of the beginning and end of the next slip event. The predicted time improves as failure is approached, as other data features add to prediction. Our results show robust predictions of slow and dynamic failure based on acoustic emissions from the fault zone throughout the laboratory seismic cycle. The predictions are based on previously unidentified tremor-like acoustic signals that occur during stress build up and the onset of macroscopic frictional weakening. We suggest that the tremor-like signals carry information about fault zone processes and allow precise predictions of failure at any time in the slow slip or stick slip cycle2. If the laboratory experiments represent Earth frictional conditions, it could well be that signals are being missed that contain highly useful predictive information. 1Breiman, L. Random forests. Machine Learning 45, 5-32 (2001). 2Rouet-Leduc, B. C. Hulbert, N. Lubbers, K. Barros and P. A. Johnson, Learning the physics of failure, in review (2016).

Influence of mesh density, cortical thickness and material properties on human rib fracture prediction.

PubMed

Li, Zuoping; Kindig, Matthew W; Subit, Damien; Kent, Richard W

2010-11-01

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the sensitivity of the structural responses and bone fractures of the ribs to mesh density, cortical thickness, and material properties so as to provide guidelines for the development of finite element (FE) thorax models used in impact biomechanics. Subject-specific FE models of the second, fourth, sixth and tenth ribs were developed to reproduce dynamic failure experiments. Sensitivity studies were then conducted to quantify the effects of variations in mesh density, cortical thickness, and material parameters on the model-predicted reaction force-displacement relationship, cortical strains, and bone fracture locations for all four ribs. Overall, it was demonstrated that rib FE models consisting of 2000-3000 trabecular hexahedral elements (weighted element length 2-3mm) and associated quadrilateral cortical shell elements with variable thickness more closely predicted the rib structural responses and bone fracture force-failure displacement relationships observed in the experiments (except the fracture locations), compared to models with constant cortical thickness. Further increases in mesh density increased computational cost but did not markedly improve model predictions. A ±30% change in the major material parameters of cortical bone lead to a -16.7 to 33.3% change in fracture displacement and -22.5 to +19.1% change in the fracture force. The results in this study suggest that human rib structural responses can be modeled in an accurate and computationally efficient way using (a) a coarse mesh of 2000-3000 solid elements, (b) cortical shells elements with variable thickness distribution and (c) a rate-dependent elastic-plastic material model. Copyright © 2010 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhanced Schapery Theory Software Development for Modeling Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Waas, Anthony M.

2013-01-01

Progressive damage and failure analysis (PDFA) tools are needed to predict the nonlinear response of advanced fiber-reinforced composite structures. Predictive tools should incorporate the underlying physics of the damage and failure mechanisms observed in the composite, and should utilize as few input parameters as possible. The purpose of the Enhanced Schapery Theory (EST) was to create a PDFA tool that operates in conjunction with a commercially available finite element (FE) code (Abaqus). The tool captures the physics of the damage and failure mechanisms that result in the nonlinear behavior of the material, and the failure methodology employed yields numerical results that are relatively insensitive to changes in the FE mesh. The EST code is written in Fortran and compiled into a static library that is linked to Abaqus. A Fortran Abaqus UMAT material subroutine is used to facilitate the communication between Abaqus and EST. A clear distinction between damage and failure is imposed. Damage mechanisms result in pre-peak nonlinearity in the stress strain curve. Four internal state variables (ISVs) are utilized to control the damage and failure degradation. All damage is said to result from matrix microdamage, and a single ISV marks the micro-damage evolution as it is used to degrade the transverse and shear moduli of the lamina using a set of experimentally obtainable matrix microdamage functions. Three separate failure ISVs are used to incorporate failure due to fiber breakage, mode I matrix cracking, and mode II matrix cracking. Failure initiation is determined using a failure criterion, and the evolution of these ISVs is controlled by a set of traction-separation laws. The traction separation laws are postulated such that the area under the curves is equal to the fracture toughness of the material associated with the corresponding failure mechanism. A characteristic finite element length is used to transform the traction-separation laws into stress-strain laws. The ISV evolution equations are derived in a thermodynamically consistent manner by invoking the stationary principle on the total work of the system with respect to each ISV. A novel feature is the inclusion of both pre-peak damage and appropriately scaled, post-peak strain softening failure. Also, the characteristic elements used in the failure degradation scheme are calculated using the element nodal coordinates, rather than simply the square root of the area of the element.

Assessment of Various Risk Factors for Success of Delayed and Immediate Loaded Dental Implants: A Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Prasant, M C; Thukral, Rishi; Kumar, Sachin; Sadrani, Sannishth M; Baxi, Harsh; Shah, Aditi

2016-10-01

Ever since its introduction in 1977, a minimum of few months of period is required for osseointegration to take place after dental implant surgery. With the passage of time and advancements in the fields of dental implant, this healing period is getting smaller and smaller. Immediate loading of dental implants is becoming a very popular procedure in the recent time. Hence, we retrospectively analyzed the various risk factors for the failure of delayed and immediate loaded dental implants. In the present study, retrospective analysis of all the patients was done who underwent dental implant surgeries either by immediate loading procedure or by delayed loading procedures. All the patients were divided broadly into two groups with one group containing patients in which delayed loaded dental implants were placed while other consisted of patients in whom immediate loaded dental implants were placed. All the patients in whom follow-up records were missing and who had past medical history of any systemic diseases were excluded from the present study. Evaluation of associated possible risk factors was done by classifying the predictable factors as primary and secondary factors. All the results were analyzed by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and chi-square test were used for assessment of level of significance. In delayed and immediate group of dental implants, mean age of the patients was 54.2 and 54.8 years respectively. Statistically significant results were obtained while comparing the clinical parameters of the dental implants in both the groups while demographic parameters showed nonsignificant correlation. Significant higher risk of dental implant failure is associated with immediate loaded dental implants. Tobacco smoking, shorter implant size, and other risk factors play a significant role in predicting the success and failure of dental implants. Delayed loaded dental implant placement should be preferred as they are associated with decreased risk of implant failure.

Echocardiographic assessment of right ventricular function in routine practice: Which parameters are useful to predict one-year outcome in advanced heart failure patients with dilated cardiomyopathy?

PubMed

Kawata, Takayuki; Daimon, Masao; Kimura, Koichi; Nakao, Tomoko; Lee, Seitetsu L; Hirokawa, Megumi; Kato, Tomoko S; Watanabe, Masafumi; Yatomi, Yutaka; Komuro, Issei

2017-10-01

Right ventricular (RV) function has recently gained attention as a prognostic predictor of outcome even in patients who have left-sided heart failure. Since several conventional echocardiographic parameters of RV systolic function have been proposed, our aim was to determine if any of these parameters (tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion: TAPSE, tissue Doppler derived systolic tricuspid annular motion velocity: S', fractional area change: FAC) are associated with outcome in advanced heart failure patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). We retrospectively enrolled 68 DCM patients, who were New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class III or IV and had a left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction <35%. All patients were undergoing evaluation for heart transplantation or management of heart failure. Primary outcomes were defined as LV assist device implantation or cardiac death within one year. Thirty-nine events occurred (5 deaths, 32 LV assist devices implanted). Univariate analysis showed that age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, NYHA functional class IV, plasma brain natriuretic peptide concentration, intravenous inotrope use, left atrial volume index, and FAC were associated with outcome, whereas TAPSE and S' were not. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the optimal FAC cut-off value to identify patients with an event was <26.7% (area under the curve=0.74). The event-free rate determined by Kaplan-Meier analysis was significantly higher in patients with FAC≥26.7% than in those with FAC<26.7% (log-lank, p=0.0003). Moreover, the addition of FAC<26.7% improved the prognostic utility of a model containing clinical variables and conventional echocardiographic indexes. FAC may provide better prognostic information than TAPSE or S' in advanced heart failure patients with DCM. Copyright © 2017 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accurate Prediction of Motor Failures by Application of Multi CBM Tools: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rana; Singh, Veerendra Pratap; Dwivedi, Jai Prakash

2018-02-01

Motor failures are very difficult to predict accurately with a single condition-monitoring tool as both electrical and the mechanical systems are closely related. Electrical problem, like phase unbalance, stator winding insulation failures can, at times, lead to vibration problem and at the same time mechanical failures like bearing failure, leads to rotor eccentricity. In this case study of a 550 kW blower motor it has been shown that a rotor bar crack was detected by current signature analysis and vibration monitoring confirmed the same. In later months in a similar motor vibration monitoring predicted bearing failure and current signature analysis confirmed the same. In both the cases, after dismantling the motor, the predictions were found to be accurate. In this paper we will be discussing the accurate predictions of motor failures through use of multi condition monitoring tools with two case studies.

Support Resources Demand Parameters - Aircraft. Revision A

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-15

Assurance Sciences - Reliability and Maintainability, 1969. Livers , Paul J., PREDICTION AND OPTIMIZATION OF FAILURE RATES (PROF 200) PROGRAMMING MANUAL...0CDC V3. -gr om In 0 0 V -40 LU -cc00L I- W! - OPC -i40 cc-4 qr - CA IL- 0cc 41 C3 C-1 I I=IJ o M c ccL) - In. r-c 0 0C LLA- Iii "" -c Ok CD 0D co- CUs

Prestraining and Its Influence on Subsequent Fatigue Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halford, Gary R.; Mcgaw, Michael A.; Kalluri, Sreeramesh

1995-01-01

An experimental program was conducted to study the damaging effects of tensile and compressive prestrains on the fatigue life of nickel-base, Inconel 718 superalloy at room temperature. To establish baseline fatigue behavior, virgin specimens with a solid uniform gage section were fatigued to failure under fully-reversed strain-control. Additional specimens were prestrained to 2 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent (engineering strains) in the tensile direction and to 2 percent (engineering strain) in the compressive direction under stroke-control, and were subsequently fatigued to failure under fully-reversed strain-control. Experimental results are compared with estimates of remaining fatigue lives (after prestraining) using three life prediction approaches: (1) the Linear Damage Rule; (2) the Linear Strain and Life Fraction Rule; and (3) the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach. The Smith-Watson-Topper parameter was used to estimate fatigue lives in the presence of mean stresses. Among the cumulative damage rules investigated, best remaining fatigue life predictions were obtained with the nonlinear Damage Curve Approach.

Study of the links between surface perturbation parameters and shock-induced mass ejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monfared, Shabnam; Buttler, William; Brandon, Lalone; Oro, David; Pack, Cora; Schauer, Martin; Stevens, Gerald; Stone, Joseph; Special Technologies Laboratory Collaboration; Los Alamos National Laboratory Team

2014-03-01

Los Alamos National Laboratory is actively engaged in the study of material failure physics to support development of the hydrodynamic models. Our supporting experiments focus on the failure mechanisms of explosively shocked metals that causes mass ejection from the backside of a shocked surface with perturbations. Ejecta models are in development for this situation. Our past work has clearly shown that the total ejected mass and mass-velocity distribution sensitively links to the wavelength and amplitude of these perturbations. In our most recent efforts, we studied the link between amount of tin ejecta and surface perturbation parameters. Our ejecta measurements utilized soft x-radiography and piezoelectric pins to quantitatively determine the amount of ejected mass. Results from these analysis techniques were in remarkably good agreement. In addition, optical shadowgraphy and laser Doppler velocimetry were used to identify any symmetry imperfections as well as fast ejecta and free surface velocities. We also compared our recent results with some earlier measurements. Within each set, amount of ejecta is predictable based on surface parameters. We relate minor differences between the results of our previous and current experiments partially to different surface cuts used.

Sustainability of transport structures - some aspects of the nonlinear reliability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pukl, Radomír; Sajdlová, Tereza; Strauss, Alfred; Lehký, David; Novák, Drahomír

2017-09-01

Efficient techniques for both nonlinear numerical analysis of concrete structures and advanced stochastic simulation methods have been combined in order to offer an advanced tool for assessment of realistic behaviour, failure and safety assessment of transport structures. The utilized approach is based on randomization of the non-linear finite element analysis of the structural models. Degradation aspects such as carbonation of concrete can be accounted in order predict durability of the investigated structure and its sustainability. Results can serve as a rational basis for the performance and sustainability assessment based on advanced nonlinear computer analysis of the structures of transport infrastructure such as bridges or tunnels. In the stochastic simulation the input material parameters obtained from material tests including their randomness and uncertainty are represented as random variables or fields. Appropriate identification of material parameters is crucial for the virtual failure modelling of structures and structural elements. Inverse analysis using artificial neural networks and virtual stochastic simulations approach is applied to determine the fracture mechanical parameters of the structural material and its numerical model. Structural response, reliability and sustainability have been investigated on different types of transport structures made from various materials using the above mentioned methodology and tools.

Optimization of bone drilling parameters using Taguchi method based on finite element analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosidi, Ayip; Lenggo Ginta, Turnad; Rani, Ahmad Majdi Bin Abdul

2017-05-01

Thermal necrosis results fracture problems and implant failure if temperature exceeds 47 °C for one minute during bone drilling. To solve this problem, this work studied a new thermal model by using three drilling parameters: drill diameter, feed rate and spindle speed. Effects of those parameters to heat generation were studied. The drill diameters were 4 mm, 6 mm and 6 mm; the feed rates were 80 mm/min, 100 mm/min and 120 mm/min whereas the spindle speeds were 400 rpm, 500 rpm and 600 rpm then an optimization was done by Taguchi method to which combination parameter can be used to prevent thermal necrosis during bone drilling. The results showed that all the combination of parameters produce confidence results which were below 47 °C and finite element analysis combined with Taguchi method can be used for predicting temperature generation and optimizing bone drilling parameters prior to clinical bone drilling. All of the combination parameters can be used for surgeon to achieve sustainable orthopaedic surgery.

Influence of yield surface curvature on the macroscopic yielding and ductile failure of isotropic porous plastic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dæhli, Lars Edvard Bryhni; Morin, David; Børvik, Tore; Hopperstad, Odd Sture

2017-10-01

Numerical unit cell models of an approximative representative volume element for a porous ductile solid are utilized to investigate differences in the mechanical response between a quadratic and a non-quadratic matrix yield surface. A Hershey equivalent stress measure with two distinct values of the yield surface exponent is employed as the matrix description. Results from the unit cell calculations are further used to calibrate a heuristic extension of the Gurson model which incorporates effects of the third deviatoric stress invariant. An assessment of the porous plasticity model reveals its ability to describe the unit cell response to some extent, however underestimating the effect of the Lode parameter for the lower triaxiality ratios imposed in this study when compared to unit cell simulations. Ductile failure predictions by means of finite element simulations using a unit cell model that resembles an imperfection band are then conducted to examine how the non-quadratic matrix yield surface influences the failure strain as compared to the quadratic matrix yield surface. Further, strain localization predictions based on bifurcation analyses and imperfection band analyses are undertaken using the calibrated porous plasticity model. These simulations are then compared to the unit cell calculations in order to elucidate the differences between the various modelling strategies. The current study reveals that strain localization analyses using an imperfection band model and a spatially discretized unit cell are in reasonable agreement, while the bifurcation analyses predict higher strain levels at localization. Imperfection band analyses are finally used to calculate failure loci for the quadratic and the non-quadratic matrix yield surface under a wide range of loading conditions. The underlying matrix yield surface is demonstrated to have a pronounced influence on the onset of strain localization.

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.; ,

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V.D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether < ??? 1 or < ??? 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.We analyze a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?????1 or ?????1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

Use of biomarkers to establish potential role and function of circulating microRNAs in acute heart failure.

PubMed

Vegter, Eline L; Schmitter, Daniela; Hagemeijer, Yanick; Ovchinnikova, Ekaterina S; van der Harst, Pim; Teerlink, John R; O'Connor, Christopher M; Metra, Marco; Davison, Beth A; Bloomfield, Daniel; Cotter, Gad; Cleland, John G; Givertz, Michael M; Ponikowski, Piotr; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J; van der Meer, Peter; Berezikov, Eugene; Voors, Adriaan A; Khan, Mohsin A F

2016-12-01

Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) emerge as potential heart failure biomarkers. We aimed to identify associations between acute heart failure (AHF)-specific circulating miRNAs and well-known heart failure biomarkers. Associations between 16 biomarkers predictive for 180day mortality and the levels of 12 AHF-specific miRNAs were determined in 100 hospitalized AHF patients, at baseline and 48hours. Patients were divided in 4 pre-defined groups, based on clinical parameters during hospitalization. Correlation analyses between miRNAs and biomarkers were performed and complemented by miRNA target prediction and pathway analysis. No significant correlations were found at hospital admission. However, after 48hours, 7 miRNAs were significantly negatively correlated to biomarkers indicative for a worse clinical outcome in the patient group with the most unfavorable in-hospital course (n=21); miR-16-5p was correlated to C-reactive protein (R=-0.66, p-value=0.0027), miR-106a-5p to creatinine (R=-0.68, p-value=0.002), miR-223-3p to growth differentiation factor 15 (R=-0.69, p-value=0.0015), miR-652-3p to soluble ST-2 (R=-0.77, p-value<0.001), miR-199a-3p to procalcitonin (R=-0.72, p-value<0.001) and galectin-3 (R=-0.73, p-value<0.001) and miR-18a-5p to procalcitonin (R=-0.68, p-value=0.002). MiRNA target prediction and pathway analysis identified several pathways related to cardiac diseases, which could be linked to some of the miRNA-biomarker correlations. The majority of correlations between circulating AHF-specific miRNAs were related to biomarkers predictive for a worse clinical outcome in a subgroup of worsening heart failure patients at 48hours of hospitalization. The selective findings suggest a time-dependent effect of circulating miRNAs and highlight the susceptibility to individual patient characteristics influencing potential relations between miRNAs and biomarkers. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of high sensitivity CRP in patients with diastolic heart failure.

PubMed

Michowitz, Yoav; Arbel, Yaron; Wexler, Dov; Sheps, David; Rogowski, Ori; Shapira, Itzhak; Berliner, Shlomo; Keren, Gad; George, Jacob; Roth, Arie

2008-04-25

C-reactive protein (CRP) has been tested in patients with systolic heart failure (HF) and mixed results have been obtained with regards to its potential predictive value. However, the role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with diastolic HF is not established. We studied the predictive role of high sensitivity CRP (hsCRP) in patients with diastolic HF. HsCRP levels were measured in a cohort of CHF outpatients, 77 patients with diastolic HF and 217 patients with systolic HF. Concentrations were compared to a large cohort of healthy population (n=7701) and associated with the HF admissions and mortality of the patients. Levels of hsCRP did not differ between patients with systolic and diastolic HF and were significantly elevated compared to the cohort of healthy subjects even after adjustment to various clinical parameters (p<0.0001). In patients with diastolic HF, hsCRP levels associated with New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA-FC) (r=0.31 p=0.01). On univariate Cox regression model hsCRP levels independently predicted hospitalizations in patients with systolic but not diastolic HF (p=0.047). HsCRP concentrations are elevated in patients with diastolic HF and correlate with disease severity; their prognostic value in this patient population should be further investigated.

Bone volume fraction and structural parameters for estimation of mechanical stiffness and failure load of human cancellous bone samples; in-vitro comparison of ultrasound transit time spectroscopy and X-ray μCT.

PubMed

Alomari, Ali Hamed; Wille, Marie-Luise; Langton, Christian M

2018-02-01

Conventional mechanical testing is the 'gold standard' for assessing the stiffness (N mm -1 ) and strength (MPa) of bone, although it is not applicable in-vivo since it is inherently invasive and destructive. The mechanical integrity of a bone is determined by its quantity and quality; being related primarily to bone density and structure respectively. Several non-destructive, non-invasive, in-vivo techniques have been developed and clinically implemented to estimate bone density, both areal (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)) and volumetric (quantitative computed tomography (QCT)). Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) parameters of velocity and attenuation are dependent upon both bone quantity and bone quality, although it has not been possible to date to transpose one particular QUS parameter into separate estimates of quantity and quality. It has recently been shown that ultrasound transit time spectroscopy (UTTS) may provide an accurate estimate of bone density and hence quantity. We hypothesised that UTTS also has the potential to provide an estimate of bone structure and hence quality. In this in-vitro study, 16 human femoral bone samples were tested utilising three techniques; UTTS, micro computed tomography (μCT), and mechanical testing. UTTS was utilised to estimate bone volume fraction (BV/TV) and two novel structural parameters, inter-quartile range of the derived transit time (UTTS-IQR) and the transit time of maximum proportion of sonic-rays (TTMP). μCT was utilised to derive BV/TV along with several bone structure parameters. A destructive mechanical test was utilised to measure the stiffness and strength (failure load) of the bone samples. BV/TV was calculated from the derived transit time spectrum (TTS); the correlation coefficient (R 2 ) with μCT-BV/TV was 0.885. For predicting mechanical stiffness and strength, BV/TV derived by both μCT and UTTS provided the strongest correlation with mechanical stiffness (R 2 =0.567 and 0.618 respectively) and mechanical strength (R 2 =0.747 and 0.736 respectively). When respective structural parameters were incorporated to BV/TV, multiple regression analysis indicated that none of the μCT histomorphometric parameters could improve the prediction of mechanical stiffness and strength, while for UTTS, adding TTMP to BV/TV increased the prediction of mechanical stiffness to R 2 =0.711 and strength to R 2 =0.827. It is therefore envisaged that UTTS may have the ability to estimate BV/TV along with providing an improved prediction of osteoporotic fracture risk, within routine clinical practice in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Progressive Failure Analysis Methodology for Laminated Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sleight, David W.

1999-01-01

A progressive failure analysis method has been developed for predicting the failure of laminated composite structures under geometrically nonlinear deformations. The progressive failure analysis uses C(exp 1) shell elements based on classical lamination theory to calculate the in-plane stresses. Several failure criteria, including the maximum strain criterion, Hashin's criterion, and Christensen's criterion, are used to predict the failure mechanisms and several options are available to degrade the material properties after failures. The progressive failure analysis method is implemented in the COMET finite element analysis code and can predict the damage and response of laminated composite structures from initial loading to final failure. The different failure criteria and material degradation methods are compared and assessed by performing analyses of several laminated composite structures. Results from the progressive failure method indicate good correlation with the existing test data except in structural applications where interlaminar stresses are important which may cause failure mechanisms such as debonding or delaminations.

Failure prediction using machine learning and time series in optical network.

PubMed

Wang, Zhilong; Zhang, Min; Wang, Danshi; Song, Chuang; Liu, Min; Li, Jin; Lou, Liqi; Liu, Zhuo

2017-08-07

In this paper, we propose a performance monitoring and failure prediction method in optical networks based on machine learning. The primary algorithms of this method are the support vector machine (SVM) and double exponential smoothing (DES). With a focus on risk-aware models in optical networks, the proposed protection plan primarily investigates how to predict the risk of an equipment failure. To the best of our knowledge, this important problem has not yet been fully considered. Experimental results showed that the average prediction accuracy of our method was 95% when predicting the optical equipment failure state. This finding means that our method can forecast an equipment failure risk with high accuracy. Therefore, our proposed DES-SVM method can effectively improve traditional risk-aware models to protect services from possible failures and enhance the optical network stability.

Survival Predictions of Ceramic Crowns Using Statistical Fracture Mechanics

PubMed Central

Nasrin, S.; Katsube, N.; Seghi, R.R.; Rokhlin, S.I.

2017-01-01

This work establishes a survival probability methodology for interface-initiated fatigue failures of monolithic ceramic crowns under simulated masticatory loading. A complete 3-dimensional (3D) finite element analysis model of a minimally reduced molar crown was developed using commercially available hardware and software. Estimates of material surface flaw distributions and fatigue parameters for 3 reinforced glass-ceramics (fluormica [FM], leucite [LR], and lithium disilicate [LD]) and a dense sintered yttrium-stabilized zirconia (YZ) were obtained from the literature and incorporated into the model. Utilizing the proposed fracture mechanics–based model, crown survival probability as a function of loading cycles was obtained from simulations performed on the 4 ceramic materials utilizing identical crown geometries and loading conditions. The weaker ceramic materials (FM and LR) resulted in lower survival rates than the more recently developed higher-strength ceramic materials (LD and YZ). The simulated 10-y survival rate of crowns fabricated from YZ was only slightly better than those fabricated from LD. In addition, 2 of the model crown systems (FM and LD) were expanded to determine regional-dependent failure probabilities. This analysis predicted that the LD-based crowns were more likely to fail from fractures initiating from margin areas, whereas the FM-based crowns showed a slightly higher probability of failure from fractures initiating from the occlusal table below the contact areas. These 2 predicted fracture initiation locations have some agreement with reported fractographic analyses of failed crowns. In this model, we considered the maximum tensile stress tangential to the interfacial surface, as opposed to the more universally reported maximum principal stress, because it more directly impacts crack propagation. While the accuracy of these predictions needs to be experimentally verified, the model can provide a fundamental understanding of the importance that pre-existing flaws at the intaglio surface have on fatigue failures. PMID:28107637

Medication possession ratio predicts antiretroviral regimens persistence in Peru.

PubMed

Salinas, Jorge L; Alave, Jorge L; Westfall, Andrew O; Paz, Jorge; Moran, Fiorella; Carbajal-Gonzalez, Danny; Callacondo, David; Avalos, Odalie; Rodriguez, Martin; Gotuzzo, Eduardo; Echevarria, Juan; Willig, James H

2013-01-01

In developing nations, the use of operational parameters (OPs) in the prediction of clinical care represents a missed opportunity to enhance the care process. We modeled the impact of multiple measurements of antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence on antiretroviral treatment outcomes in Peru. Retrospective cohort study including ART naïve, non-pregnant, adults initiating therapy at Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru (2006-2010). Three OPs were defined: 1) Medication possession ratio (MPR): days with antiretrovirals dispensed/days on first-line therapy; 2) Laboratory monitory constancy (LMC): proportion of 6 months intervals with ≥1 viral load or CD4 reported; 3) Clinic visit constancy (CVC): proportion of 6 months intervals with ≥1 clinic visit. Three multi-variable Cox proportional hazard (PH) models (one per OP) were fit for (1) time of first-line ART persistence and (2) time to second-line virologic failure. All models were adjusted for socio-demographic, clinical and laboratory variables. 856 patients were included in first-line persistence analyses, median age was 35.6 years [29.4-42.9] and most were male (624; 73%). In multivariable PH models, MPR (per 10% increase HR=0.66; 95%CI=0.61-0.71) and LMC (per 10% increase 0.83; 0.71-0.96) were associated with prolonged time on first-line therapies. Among 79 individuals included in time to second-line virologic failure analyses, MPR was the only OP independently associated with prolonged time to second-line virologic failure (per 10% increase 0.88; 0.77-0.99). The capture and utilization of program level parameters such as MPR can provide valuable insight into patient-level treatment outcomes.

A Simulation of Low and High Cycle Fatigue Failure Effects for Metal Matrix Composites Based on Innovative J2-Flow Elastoplasticity Model

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhaoling; Xiao, Heng

2017-01-01

New elastoplastic J2-flow constitutive equations at finite deformations are proposed for the purpose of simulating the fatigue failure behavior for metal matrix composites. A new, direct approach is established in a two-fold sense of unification. Namely, both low and high cycle fatigue failure effects of metal matrix composites may be simultaneously simulated for various cases of the weight percentage of reinforcing particles. Novel results are presented in four respects. First, both the yield condition and the loading–unloading conditions in a usual sense need not be involved but may be automatically incorporated into inherent features of the proposed constitutive equations; second, low-to-high cycle fatigue failure effects may be directly represented by a simple condition for asymptotic loss of the material strength, without involving any additional damage-like variables; third, both high and low cycle fatigue failure effects need not be separately treated but may be automatically derived as model predictions with a unified criterion for critical failure states, without assuming any ad hoc failure criteria; and, finally, explicit expressions for each incorporated model parameter changing with the weight percentage of reinforcing particles may be obtainable directly from appropriate test data. Numerical examples are presented for medium-to-high cycle fatigue failure effects and for complicated duplex effects from low to high cycle fatigue failure effects. Simulation results are in good agreement with experimental data. PMID:28946637

Variations of electric resistance and H2 and Rn emissions of concrete blocks under increasing uniaxial compression

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, C.-Y.; Luo, G.

1990-01-01

Electric resistance and emissions of hydrogen and radon isotopes of concrete (which is somewhat similar to fault-zone materials) under increasing uniaxial compression were continuously monitored to check whether they show any pre- and post-failure changes that may correspond to similar changes reported for earthquakes. The results show that all these parameters generally begin to increase when the applied stresses reach 20% to 90% of the corresponding failure stresses, probably due to the occurrence and growth of dilatant microcracks in the specimens. The prefailure changes have different patterns for different specimens, probably because of differences in spatial and temporal distributions of the microcracks. The resistance shows large co-failure increases, and the gas emissions show large post-failure increases. The post-failure increase of radon persists longer and stays at a higher level than that of hydrogen, suggesting a difference in the emission mechanisms for these two kinds of gases. The H2 increase may be mainly due to chemical reaction at the crack surfaces while they are fresh, whereas the Rn increases may be mainly the result of the increased emanation area of such surfaces. The results suggest that monitoring of resistivity and gas emissions may be useful for predicting earthquakes and failures of concrete structures. ?? 1990 Birkha??user Verlag.

Microstructures, Forming Limit and Failure Analyses of Inconel 718 Sheets for Fabrication of Aerospace Components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sajun Prasad, K.; Panda, Sushanta Kumar; Kar, Sujoy Kumar; Sen, Mainak; Murty, S. V. S. Naryana; Sharma, Sharad Chandra

2017-04-01

Recently, aerospace industries have shown increasing interest in forming limits of Inconel 718 sheet metals, which can be utilised in designing tools and selection of process parameters for successful fabrication of components. In the present work, stress-strain response with failure strains was evaluated by uniaxial tensile tests in different orientations, and two-stage work-hardening behavior was observed. In spite of highly preferred texture, tensile properties showed minor variations in different orientations due to the random distribution of nanoprecipitates. The forming limit strains were evaluated by deforming specimens in seven different strain paths using limiting dome height (LDH) test facility. Mostly, the specimens failed without prior indication of localized necking. Thus, fracture forming limit diagram (FFLD) was evaluated, and bending correction was imposed due to the use of sub-size hemispherical punch. The failure strains of FFLD were converted into major-minor stress space ( σ-FFLD) and effective plastic strain-stress triaxiality space ( ηEPS-FFLD) as failure criteria to avoid the strain path dependence. Moreover, FE model was developed, and the LDH, strain distribution and failure location were predicted successfully using above-mentioned failure criteria with two stages of work hardening. Fractographs were correlated with the fracture behavior and formability of sheet metal.

Elastic and failure response of imperfect three-dimensional metallic lattices: the role of geometric defects induced by Selective Laser Melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Kamm, Paul; García-Moreno, Francisco; Banhart, John; Pasini, Damiano

2017-10-01

This paper examines three-dimensional metallic lattices with regular octet and rhombicuboctahedron units fabricated with geometric imperfections via Selective Laser Sintering. We use X-ray computed tomography to capture morphology, location, and distribution of process-induced defects with the aim of studying their role in the elastic response, damage initiation, and failure evolution under quasi-static compression. Testing results from in-situ compression tomography show that each lattice exhibits a distinct failure mechanism that is governed not only by cell topology but also by geometric defects induced by additive manufacturing. Extracted from X-ray tomography images, the statistical distributions of three sets of defects, namely strut waviness, strut thickness variation, and strut oversizing, are used to develop numerical models of statistically representative lattices with imperfect geometry. Elastic and failure responses are predicted within 10% agreement from the experimental data. In addition, a computational study is presented to shed light into the relationship between the amplitude of selected defects and the reduction of elastic properties compared to their nominal values. The evolution of failure mechanisms is also explained with respect to strut oversizing, a parameter that can critically cause failure mode transitions that are not visible in defect-free lattices.

Predicted Hemodynamic Benefits Of Counterpulsation Therapy Using A Superficial Surgical Approach

PubMed Central

Giridharan, Guruprasad A.; Pantalos, George M.; Litwak, Kenneth N.; Spence, Paul A.; Koenig, Steven C.

2010-01-01

A volume-displacement counterpulsation device (CPD) intended for chronic implantation via a superficial surgical approach is proposed. The CPD is a pneumatically driven sac that fills during native heart systole and empties during diastole through a single, valveless cannula anastomosed to the subclavian artery. Computer simulation was performed to predict and compare the physiological responses of the CPD to the intraaortic balloon pump (IABP) in a clinically relevant model of early stage heart failure. The effect of device stroke volume (0–50 ml) and control modes (timing, duration, morphology) on landmark hemodynamic parameters and the LV pressure–volume relationship were investigated. Simulation results predicted that the CPD would provide hemodynamic benefits comparable to an IABP as evidenced by up to 25% augmentation of peak diastolic aortic pressure, which increases diastolic coronary perfusion by up to 34%. The CPD may also provide up to 34% reduction in LV end-diastolic pressure and 12% reduction in peak systolic aortic pressure, lowering LV workload by up to 26% and increasing cardiac output by up to 10%. This study demonstrated that the superficial CPD technique may be used acutely to achieve similar improvements in hemodynamic function as the IABP in early stage heart failure patients. PMID:16436889

On the buckling of an elastic holey column

PubMed Central

Hazel, A. L.; Pihler-Puzović, D.

2017-01-01

We report the results of a numerical and theoretical study of buckling in elastic columns containing a line of holes. Buckling is a common failure mode of elastic columns under compression, found over scales ranging from metres in buildings and aircraft to tens of nanometers in DNA. This failure usually occurs through lateral buckling, described for slender columns by Euler’s theory. When the column is perforated with a regular line of holes, a new buckling mode arises, in which adjacent holes collapse in orthogonal directions. In this paper, we firstly elucidate how this alternate hole buckling mode coexists and interacts with classical Euler buckling modes, using finite-element numerical calculations with bifurcation tracking. We show how the preferred buckling mode is selected by the geometry, and discuss the roles of localized (hole-scale) and global (column-scale) buckling. Secondly, we develop a novel predictive model for the buckling of columns perforated with large holes. This model is derived without arbitrary fitting parameters, and quantitatively predicts the critical strain for buckling. We extend the model to sheets perforated with a regular array of circular holes and use it to provide quantitative predictions of their buckling. PMID:29225498

Predicting laser weld reliability with stochastic reduced-order models. Predicting laser weld reliability

DOE PAGES

Emery, John M.; Field, Richard V.; Foulk, James W.; ...

2015-05-26

Laser welds are prevalent in complex engineering systems and they frequently govern failure. The weld process often results in partial penetration of the base metals, leaving sharp crack-like features with a high degree of variability in the geometry and material properties of the welded structure. Furthermore, accurate finite element predictions of the structural reliability of components containing laser welds requires the analysis of a large number of finite element meshes with very fine spatial resolution, where each mesh has different geometry and/or material properties in the welded region to address variability. We found that traditional modeling approaches could not bemore » efficiently employed. Consequently, a method is presented for constructing a surrogate model, based on stochastic reduced-order models, and is proposed to represent the laser welds within the component. Here, the uncertainty in weld microstructure and geometry is captured by calibrating plasticity parameters to experimental observations of necking as, because of the ductility of the welds, necking – and thus peak load – plays the pivotal role in structural failure. The proposed method is exercised for a simplified verification problem and compared with the traditional Monte Carlo simulation with rather remarkable results.« less

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/ D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?? > 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

A Nonlinear Viscoelastic Model for Ceramics at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powers, Lynn M.; Panoskaltsis, Vassilis P.; Gasparini, Dario A.; Choi, Sung R.

2002-01-01

High-temperature creep behavior of ceramics is characterized by nonlinear time-dependent responses, asymmetric behavior in tension and compression, and nucleation and coalescence of voids leading to creep rupture. Moreover, creep rupture experiments show considerable scatter or randomness in fatigue lives of nominally equal specimens. To capture the nonlinear, asymmetric time-dependent behavior, the standard linear viscoelastic solid model is modified. Nonlinearity and asymmetry are introduced in the volumetric components by using a nonlinear function similar to a hyperbolic sine function but modified to model asymmetry. The nonlinear viscoelastic model is implemented in an ABAQUS user material subroutine. To model the random formation and coalescence of voids, each element is assigned a failure strain sampled from a lognormal distribution. An element is deleted when its volumetric strain exceeds its failure strain. Element deletion has been implemented within ABAQUS. Temporal increases in strains produce a sequential loss of elements (a model for void nucleation and growth), which in turn leads to failure. Nonlinear viscoelastic model parameters are determined from uniaxial tensile and compressive creep experiments on silicon nitride. The model is then used to predict the deformation of four-point bending and ball-on-ring specimens. Simulation is used to predict statistical moments of creep rupture lives. Numerical simulation results compare well with results of experiments of four-point bending specimens. The analytical model is intended to be used to predict the creep rupture lives of ceramic parts in arbitrary stress conditions.

Implementation of a Tabulated Failure Model Into a Generalized Composite Material Model Suitable for Use in Impact Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.; Carney, Kelly S.; Dubois, Paul; Hoffarth, Canio; Khaled, Bilal; Shyamsunder, Loukham; Rajan, Subramaniam; Blankenhorn, Gunther

2017-01-01

The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased use in the aerospace and automotive communities. The aerospace community has identified several key capabilities which are currently lacking in the available material models in commercial transient dynamic finite element codes. To attempt to improve the predictive capability of composite impact simulations, a next generation material model is being developed for incorporation within the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA. The material model, which incorporates plasticity, damage and failure, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage and the initiation of failure as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters such as modulus and strength. The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is used to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. For the failure model, a tabulated approach is utilized in which a stress or strain based invariant is defined as a function of the location of the current stress state in stress space to define the initiation of failure. Failure surfaces can be defined with any arbitrary shape, unlike traditional failure models where the mathematical functions used to define the failure surface impose a specific shape on the failure surface. In the current paper, the complete development of the failure model is described and the generation of a tabulated failure surface for a representative composite material is discussed.

Predicting the mixed-mode I/II spatial damage propagation along 3D-printed soft interfacial layer via a hyperelastic softening model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lei; Li, Yaning

2018-07-01

A methodology was developed to use a hyperelastic softening model to predict the constitutive behavior and the spatial damage propagation of nonlinear materials with damage-induced softening under mixed-mode loading. A user subroutine (ABAQUS/VUMAT) was developed for numerical implementation of the model. 3D-printed wavy soft rubbery interfacial layer was used as a material system to verify and validate the methodology. The Arruda - Boyce hyperelastic model is incorporated with the softening model to capture the nonlinear pre-and post- damage behavior of the interfacial layer under mixed Mode I/II loads. To characterize model parameters of the 3D-printed rubbery interfacial layer, a series of scarf-joint specimens were designed, which enabled systematic variation of stress triaxiality via a single geometric parameter, the slant angle. It was found that the important model parameter m is exponentially related to the stress triaxiality. Compact tension specimens of the sinusoidal wavy interfacial layer with different waviness were designed and fabricated via multi-material 3D printing. Finite element (FE) simulations were conducted to predict the spatial damage propagation of the material within the wavy interfacial layer. Compact tension experiments were performed to verify the model prediction. The results show that the model developed is able to accurately predict the damage propagation of the 3D-printed rubbery interfacial layer under complicated stress-state without pre-defined failure criteria.

Nuclear masses far from stability: the interplay of theory and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haustein, P.E.

1985-01-01

Mass models seek, by a variety of theoretical approaches, to reproduce the measured mass surface and to predict unmeasured masses beyond it. Subsequent measurements of these predicted nuclear masses permit an assessment of the quality of the mass predictions from the various models. Since the last comprehensive revision of the mass predictions (in the mid-to-late 1970's) over 300 new masses have been reported. Global analyses of these data have been performed by several numerical and graphical methods. These have identified both the strengths and weaknesses of the models. In some cases failures in individual models are distinctly apparent when themore » new mass data are plotted as functions of one or more selected physical parameters. Several examples will be given. Future theoretical efforts will also be discussed.« less

Modeling the anaerobic digestion of cane-molasses vinasse: extension of the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) with sulfate reduction for a very high strength and sulfate rich wastewater.

PubMed

Barrera, Ernesto L; Spanjers, Henri; Solon, Kimberly; Amerlinck, Youri; Nopens, Ingmar; Dewulf, Jo

2015-03-15

This research presents the modeling of the anaerobic digestion of cane-molasses vinasse, hereby extending the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 with sulfate reduction for a very high strength and sulfate rich wastewater. Based on a sensitivity analysis, four parameters of the original ADM1 and all sulfate reduction parameters were calibrated. Although some deviations were observed between model predictions and experimental values, it was shown that sulfates, total aqueous sulfide, free sulfides, methane, carbon dioxide and sulfide in the gas phase, gas flow, propionic and acetic acids, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and pH were accurately predicted during model validation. The model showed high (±10%) to medium (10%-30%) accuracy predictions with a mean absolute relative error ranging from 1% to 26%, and was able to predict failure of methanogenesis and sulfidogenesis when the sulfate loading rate increased. Therefore, the kinetic parameters and the model structure proposed in this work can be considered as valid for the sulfate reduction process in the anaerobic digestion of cane-molasses vinasse when sulfate and organic loading rates range from 0.36 to 1.57 kg [Formula: see text]  m(-3) d(-1) and from 7.66 to 12 kg COD m(-3) d(-1), respectively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association Rule-based Predictive Model for Machine Failure in Industrial Internet of Things

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jung-Hyok; Lee, Sol-Bee; Park, Jaehoon; Kim, Eui-Jik

2017-09-01

This paper proposes an association rule-based predictive model for machine failure in industrial Internet of things (IIoT), which can accurately predict the machine failure in real manufacturing environment by investigating the relationship between the cause and type of machine failure. To develop the predictive model, we consider three major steps: 1) binarization, 2) rule creation, 3) visualization. The binarization step translates item values in a dataset into one or zero, then the rule creation step creates association rules as IF-THEN structures using the Lattice model and Apriori algorithm. Finally, the created rules are visualized in various ways for users’ understanding. An experimental implementation was conducted using R Studio version 3.3.2. The results show that the proposed predictive model realistically predicts machine failure based on association rules.

Understanding tectonic stress and rock strength in the Nankai Trough accretionary prism, offshore SW Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, Katelyn A.

Understanding the orientation and magnitude of tectonic stress in active tectonic margins like subduction zones is important for understanding fault mechanics. In the Nankai Trough subduction zone, faults in the accretionary prism are thought to have historically slipped during or immediately following deep plate boundary earthquakes, often generating devastating tsunamis. I focus on quantifying stress at two locations of interest in the Nankai Trough accretionary prism, offshore Southwest Japan. I employ a method to constrain stress magnitude that combines observations of compressional borehole failure from logging-while-drilling resistivity-at-the-bit generated images (RAB) with estimates of rock strength and the relationship between tectonic stress and stress at the wall of a borehole. I use the method to constrain stress at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 808 and Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site C0002. At Site 808, I consider a range of parameters (assumed rock strength, friction coefficient, breakout width, and fluid pressure) in the method to constrain stress to explore uncertainty in stress magnitudes and discuss stress results in terms of the seismic cycle. I find a combination of increased fluid pressure and decreased friction along the frontal thrust or other weak faults could produce thrust-style failure, without the entire prism being at critical state failure, as other kinematic models of accretionary prism behavior during earthquakes imply. Rock strength is typically inferred using a failure criterion and unconfined compressive strength from empirical relations with P-wave velocity. I minimize uncertainty in rock strength by measuring rock strength in triaxial tests on Nankai core. I find strength of Nankai core is significantly less than empirical relations predict. I create a new empirical fit to our experiments and explore implications of this on stress magnitude estimates. I find using the new empirical fit can decrease stress predicted in the method by as much as 4 MPa at Site C0002. I constrain stress at Site C0002 using geophysical logging data from two adjacent boreholes drilled into the same sedimentary sequence with different drilling conditions in a forward model that predicts breakout width over a range of horizontal stresses (where SHmax is constrained by the ratio of stresses that would produce active faulting and Shmin is constrained from leak-off-tests) and rock strength. I then compare predicted breakout widths to observations of breakout widths from RAB images to determine the combination of stresses in the model that best match real world observations. This is the first published method to constrain both stress and strength simultaneously. Finally, I explore uncertainty in rock behavior during compressional breakout formation using a finite element model (FEM) that predicts Biot poroelastic changes in fluid pressure in rock adjacent to the borehole upon its excavation and explore the effect this has on rock failure. I test a range of permeability and rock stiffness. I find that when rock stiffness and permeability are in the range of what exists at Nankai, pore fluid pressure increase +/- 45° from Shmin and can lead to weakening of wall rock and a wider compressional failure zone than what would exist at equilibrium conditions. In a case example at, we find this can lead to an overestimate of tectonic stress using compressional failures of ~2 MPa in the area of the borehole where fluid pressure increases. In areas around the borehole where pore fluid decreases (+/- 45° from SHmax), the wall rock can strengthen which suppresses tensile failure. The implications of this research is that there are many potential pitfalls in the method to constrain stress using borehole breakouts in Nankai Trough mudstone, mostly due to uncertainty in parameters such as strength and underlying assumptions regarding constitutive rock behavior. More laboratory measurement and/or models of rock properties and rock constitutive behavior is needed to ensure the method is accurately providing constraints on stress magnitude. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

Severity of nocturnal hypoxia and daytime hypercapnia predicts CPAP failure in patients with COPD and obstructive sleep apnea overlap syndrome.

PubMed

Kuklisova, Zuzana; Tkacova, Ruzena; Joppa, Pavol; Wouters, Emiel; Sastry, Manuel

2017-02-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are independent risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. In patients with OSA and concurrent COPD, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy improves survival. Nevertheless, a significant proportion of such patients do not tolerate CPAP. The aim of the present study was to analyze early predictors of CPAP failure in patients with OSA and concurrent COPD, and to evaluate the effects of bilevel positive airway pressure (BiPAP) in this high-risk group of patients. A post hoc analysis from the database of 2100 patients diagnosed with OSA between 2012 and 2014 identified 84 subjects as having concomitant COPD and meeting inclusion criteria. Demographic data, pulmonary function tests, OSA parameters, blood gases, response to CPAP and BiPAP titration, and two months of therapy were collected. A multivariate model was generated to find determinants of CPAP failure. Primary CPAP failure was found in 23% of patients who were more obese (p = 0.018), had worse lung function, lower PO 2 (p = 0.023) and higher PCO 2 while awake (p < 0.001), and more sleep time with an SpO 2  < 90% (CT90%) (p < 0.001) compared to those who responded to CPAP. In multivariate analysis, PCO 2 while awake [odds ratio (OR) 29.5, confidence interval (CI) 2.22-391, p = 0.010] and CT90% (OR 1.06, CI 1.01-1.11, p = 0.017) independently predicted CPAP failure after adjustments for covariates. The BiPAP therapy was well tolerated and effectively alleviated hypercapnia in all patients with primary CPAP failure. Daytime hypercapnia and nocturnal hypoxia are independent predictors of early CPAP failure in patients with the OSA-COPD overlap syndrome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association of intraventricular mechanical dyssynchrony with response to cardiac resynchronization therapy in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex

PubMed Central

van Bommel, Rutger J.; Tanaka, Hidekazu; Delgado, Victoria; Bertini, Matteo; Borleffs, Carel Jan Willem; Ajmone Marsan, Nina; Holzmeister, Johannes; Ruschitzka, Frank; Schalij, Martin J.; Bax, Jeroen J.; Gorcsan, John

2010-01-01

Aims Current criteria for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) are restricted to patients with a wide QRS complex (>120 ms). Overall, only 30% of heart failure patients demonstrate a wide QRS complex, leaving the majority of heart failure patients without this treatment option. However, patients with a narrow QRS complex exhibit left ventricular (LV) mechanical dyssynchrony, as assessed with echocardiography. To further elucidate the possible beneficial effect of CRT in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex, this two-centre, non-randomized observational study focused on different echocardiographic parameters of LV mechanical dyssynchrony reflecting atrioventricular, interventricular and intraventricular dyssynchrony, and the response to CRT in these patients. Methods and results A total of 123 consecutive heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex (<120 ms) undergoing CRT was included at two centres. Several widely accepted measures of mechanical dyssynchrony were evaluated: LV filling ratio (LVFT/RR), LV pre-ejection time (LPEI), interventricular mechanical dyssynchrony (IVMD), opposing wall delay (OWD), and anteroseptal posterior wall delay with speckle tracking (ASPWD). Response to CRT was defined as a reduction ≥15% in left ventricular end-systolic volume at 6 months follow-up. Measures of dyssynchrony can frequently be observed in patients with a narrow QRS complex. Nonetheless, for LVFT/RR, LPEI, and IVMD, presence of predefined significant dyssynchrony is <20%. Significant intraventricular dyssynchrony is more widely observed in these patients. With receiver operator characteristic curve analyses, both OWD and ASPWD demonstrated usefulness in predicting response to CRT in narrow QRS patients with a cut-off value of 75 and 107 ms, respectively. Conclusion Mechanical dyssynchrony can be widely observed in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex. In particular, intraventricular measures of mechanical dyssynchrony may be useful in predicting LV reverse remodelling at 6 months follow-up in heart failure patients with a narrow QRS complex, but with more stringent cut-off values than currently used in ‘wide’ QRS patients. PMID:20864484

Lower Interbreath Interval Complexity Is Associated With Extubation Failure in Mechanically Ventilated Patients During Spontaneous Breathing Trials

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

patient tolerated the SBT, then measurement of respiratory rate (RR), rapid shallow breathing index (RSBI), and negative inspiratory force ( NIF ) were...no deaths in either cohort during the study period. The characteristics of the two groups, along with RR, duration of IBI, NIF , and RSBI calculated... NIF , and RSBI did not differ between groups, and that all subjects who were extubated had weaning parameters predictive of success. To explore the

Postbuckling failure of composite plates with central holes. Interim Report, Feb. 1990 - Dec. 1991 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, H. H.; Hyer, M. W.

1992-01-01

The postbuckling failure of square composite plates with central holes is analyzed numerically and experimentally. The particular plates studies have stacking sequences of: (+ and - 45/0/90)(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 2))(sub 2S); (+ and - 45/0(sub 6))(sub S); and (+ and - 45)(sub 4S). A simple plate geometry, one with a hole diameter to plate width ratio of 0.3 is compared. Failure load, failure mode, and failure location are predicted numerically by using the finite element method. Predictions are compared with experimental results. In numerical failure analysis the interlaminar shear stresses, as well as the inplane stresses are taken into account. An issue addressed in this study is the possible mode shape change of the plate during loading. It is predicted that the first three laminates fail due to excessive stresses in the fiber direction, and more importantly, that the load level is independent of whether the laminate is deformed in a one-half or two-half wave configuration. It is predicted that the fourth laminate fails due to excessive inplane shear stress. Interlaminar shear failure is not predicted for any laminates. For the first two laminates the experimental observations correlated well with the predictions. Experimentally, the third laminate failed along the side support due to interlaminar shear strength S(sub 23). The fourth experimental laminate failed due to inplane shear in the location predicted, however material softening resulted in a different failure load from predictions.

Micromechanics of cataclastic pore collapse in limestone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Baud, Patrick; Wong, Teng-Fong

2010-04-01

The analysis of compactant failure in carbonate formations hinges upon a fundamental understanding of the mechanics of inelastic compaction. Microstructural observations indicate that pore collapse in a limestone initiates at the larger pores, and microcracking dominates the deformation in the periphery of a collapsed pore. To capture these micromechanical processes, we developed a model treating the limestone as a dual porosity medium, with the total porosity partitioned between macroporosity and microporosity. The representative volume element is made up of a large pore which is surrounded by an effective medium containing the microporosity. Cataclastic yielding of this effective medium obeys the Mohr-Coulomb or Drucker-Prager criterion, with failure parameters dependent on porosity and pore size. An analytic approximation was derived for the unconfined compressive strength associated with failure due to the propagation and coalescence of pore-emanated cracks. For hydrostatic loading, identical theoretical results for the pore collapse pressure were obtained using the Mohr-Coulomb or Drucker-Prager criterion. For nonhydrostatic loading, the stress state at the onset of shear-enhanced compaction was predicted to fall on a linear cap according to the Mohr-Coulomb criterion. In contrast, nonlinear caps in qualitative agreement with laboratory data were predicted using the Drucker-Prager criterion. Our micromechanical model implies that the effective medium is significantly stronger and relatively pressure-insensitive in comparison to the bulk sample.

A Multiscale Progressive Failure Modeling Methodology for Composites that Includes Fiber Strength Stochastics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Trenton M.; Lacy, Thomas E., Jr.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.; Hutchins, John W.

2014-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology was developed for continuous fiber composites that incorporates a statistical distribution of fiber strengths into coupled multiscale micromechanics/finite element (FE) analyses. A modified two-parameter Weibull cumulative distribution function, which accounts for the effect of fiber length on the probability of failure, was used to characterize the statistical distribution of fiber strengths. A parametric study using the NASA Micromechanics Analysis Code with the Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) was performed to assess the effect of variable fiber strengths on local composite failure within a repeating unit cell (RUC) and subsequent global failure. The NASA code FEAMAC and the ABAQUS finite element solver were used to analyze the progressive failure of a unidirectional SCS-6/TIMETAL 21S metal matrix composite tensile dogbone specimen at 650 degC. Multiscale progressive failure analyses were performed to quantify the effect of spatially varying fiber strengths on the RUC-averaged and global stress-strain responses and failure. The ultimate composite strengths and distribution of failure locations (predominately within the gage section) reasonably matched the experimentally observed failure behavior. The predicted composite failure behavior suggests that use of macroscale models that exploit global geometric symmetries are inappropriate for cases where the actual distribution of local fiber strengths displays no such symmetries. This issue has not received much attention in the literature. Moreover, the model discretization at a specific length scale can have a profound effect on the computational costs associated with multiscale simulations.models that yield accurate yet tractable results.

Predictive Trip Detection for Nuclear Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Drew J.; Jiang, Jin

2016-08-01

This paper investigates the use of a Kalman filter (KF) to predict, within the shutdown system (SDS) of a nuclear power plant (NPP), whether safety parameter measurements have reached a trip set-point. In addition, least squares (LS) estimation compensates for prediction error due to system-model mismatch. The motivation behind predictive shutdown is to reduce the amount of time between the occurrence of a fault or failure and the time of trip detection, referred to as time-to-trip. These reductions in time-to-trip can ultimately lead to increases in safety and productivity margins. The proposed predictive SDS differs from conventional SDSs in that it compares point-predictions of the measurements, rather than sensor measurements, against trip set-points. The predictive SDS is validated through simulation and experiments for the steam generator water level safety parameter. Performance of the proposed predictive SDS is compared against benchmark conventional SDS with respect to time-to-trip. In addition, this paper analyzes: prediction uncertainty, as well as; the conditions under which it is possible to achieve reduced time-to-trip. Simulation results demonstrate that on average the predictive SDS reduces time-to-trip by an amount of time equal to the length of the prediction horizon and that the distribution of times-to-trip is approximately Gaussian. Experimental results reveal that a reduced time-to-trip can be achieved in a real-world system with unknown system-model mismatch and that the predictive SDS can be implemented with a scan time of under 100ms. Thus, this paper is a proof of concept for KF/LS-based predictive trip detection.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Modeling leaching of viruses by the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Faulkner, Barton R; Lyon, William G; Khan, Faruque A; Chattopadhyay, Sandip

2003-11-01

A predictive screening model was developed for fate and transport of viruses in the unsaturated zone by applying the final value theorem of Laplace transformation to previously developed governing equations. A database of input parameters allowed Monte Carlo analysis with the model. The resulting kernel densities of predicted attenuation during percolation indicated very small, but finite probabilities of failure for all homogeneous USDA classified soils to attenuate reovirus 3 by 99.99% in one-half meter of gravity drainage. The logarithm of saturated hydraulic conductivity and water to air-water interface mass transfer coefficient affected virus fate and transport about 3 times more than any other parameter, including the logarithm of inactivation rate of suspended viruses. Model results suggest extreme infiltration events may play a predominant role in leaching of viruses in soils, since such events could impact hydraulic conductivity. The air-water interface also appears to play a predominating role in virus transport and fate. Although predictive modeling may provide insight into actual attenuation of viruses, hydrogeologic sensitivity assessments for the unsaturated zone should include a sampling program.

Overlay coating degradation by simultaneous oxidation and coating/substrate interdiffusion. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesbitt, J. A.

1983-01-01

Degradation of NiCrAlZr overlay coatings on various NiCrAl substrates was examined after cyclic oxidation. Concentration/distance profiles were measured in the coating and substrate after various oxidation exposures at 1150 C. For each stubstrate, the Al content in the coating decreased rapidly. The concentration/distance profiles, and particularly that for Al, reflected the oxide spalling resistance of each coated substrate. A numerical model was developed to simulate diffusion associated with overlay-coating degradation by oxidation and coating/substrate interdiffusion. Input to the numerical model consisted of the Cr and Al content of the coating and substrate, ternary diffusivities, and various oxide spalling parameters. The model predicts the Cr and Al concentrations in the coating and substrate after any number of oxidation/thermal cycles. The numerical model also predicts coating failure based on the ability of the coating to supply sufficient Al to the oxide scale. The validity of the model was confirmed by comparison of the predicted and measured concentration/distance profiles. The model was subsequently used to identify the most critical system parameters affecting coating life.

Predictive value of daily living score in acute respiratory failure of COPD patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation pilot study.

PubMed

Langlet, Ketty; Van Der Linden, Thierry; Launois, Claire; Fourdin, Caroline; Cabaret, Philippe; Kerkeni, Nadia; Barbe, Coralie; Lebargy, François; Deslée, Gaetan

2012-10-18

Mechanical ventilation (MV) is imperative in many forms of acute respiratory failure (ARF) in COPD patients. Previous studies have shown the difficulty to identify parameters predicting the outcome of COPD patients treated by invasive MV. Our hypothesis was that a non specialized score as the activities daily living (ADL) score may help to predict the outcome of these patients. We studied the outcome of 25 COPD patients admitted to the intensive care unit for ARF requiring invasive MV. The patients were divided into those weaning success (group A n = 17, 68%) or failure (group B n = 8, 32%). We investigated the correlation between the ADL score and the outcome and mortality. The ADL score was higher in group A (5.1 ±1.1 vs 3.7 ± 0.7 in group B, p < 0.01). Weaning was achieved in 76.5% of the cases with an ADL score ≥ 4 and in 23.5% of the cases with an ADL score < 4 (p < 0.05). Pulmonary function test, arterial blood gases collected during period of clinical stability and at admission and nutritional status were similar in both groups. The mortality, at six months, was 36%. The ADL score was a significant predictor of 6-month mortality (80 with an ADL score <4, 20 with an ADL score ≥4, p < 0.01). Our pilot study demonstrates that the ADL score is predictive of weaning success and mortality at 6 months, suggesting that the assessment of daily activities should be an important component of ARF management in COPD patients.

Prediction of Mass Wasting, Erosion, and Sediment Transport With the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doten, C. O.; Lanini, J. S.; Bowling, L. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2004-12-01

Erosion and sediment transport in a temperate forested watershed are predicted with a new sediment module linked to the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The DHSVM sediment module represents the main sources of sediment generation in forested environments: mass wasting, hillslope erosion and road surface erosion. It produces failures based on a factor-of-safety analysis with the infinite slope model through use of stochastically generated soil and vegetation parameters. Failed material is routed downslope with a rule-based scheme that determines sediment delivery to streams. Sediment from hillslopes and road surfaces is also transported to the channel network. Basin sediment yield is predicted with a simple channel sediment routing scheme. The model was applied to the Rainy Creek catchment, a tributary of the Wenatchee River which drains the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains, and Hard and Ware Creeks on the west slopes of the Cascades. In these initial applications, the model produced plausible sediment yield and ratios of landsliding and surface erosion , when compared to published rates for similar catchments in the Pacific Northwest. We have also used the model to examine the implications of fires and logging road removal on sediment generation in the Rainy Creek catchment. Generally, in absolute value, the predicted changes (increased sediment generation) following fires, which are primarily associated with increased slope failures, are much larger than the modest changes (reductions in sediment yield) associated with road obliteration, although the small sensitivity to forest road obliteration may be due in part to the relatively low road density in the Rainy Creek catchment, and to mechanisms, such as culvert failure, that are not represented in the model.

Reliability analysis of C-130 turboprop engine components using artificial neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qattan, Nizar A.

In this study, we predict the failure rate of Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine. More than thirty years of local operational field data were used for failure rate prediction and validation. The Weibull regression model and the Artificial Neural Network model including (feed-forward back-propagation, radial basis neural network, and multilayer perceptron neural network model); will be utilized to perform this study. For this purpose, the thesis will be divided into five major parts. First part deals with Weibull regression model to predict the turbine general failure rate, and the rate of failures that require overhaul maintenance. The second part will cover the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model utilizing the feed-forward back-propagation algorithm as a learning rule. The MATLAB package will be used in order to build and design a code to simulate the given data, the inputs to the neural network are the independent variables, the output is the general failure rate of the turbine, and the failures which required overhaul maintenance. In the third part we predict the general failure rate of the turbine and the failures which require overhaul maintenance, using radial basis neural network model on MATLAB tool box. In the fourth part we compare the predictions of the feed-forward back-propagation model, with that of Weibull regression model, and radial basis neural network model. The results show that the failure rate predicted by the feed-forward back-propagation artificial neural network model is closer in agreement with radial basis neural network model compared with the actual field-data, than the failure rate predicted by the Weibull model. By the end of the study, we forecast the general failure rate of the Lockheed C-130 Engine Turbine, the failures which required overhaul maintenance and six categorical failures using multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) model on DTREG commercial software. The results also give an insight into the reliability of the engine turbine under actual operating conditions, which can be used by aircraft operators for assessing system and component failures and customizing the maintenance programs recommended by the manufacturer.

[Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

PubMed

Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

2013-01-01

The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

2011-11-01

Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

Quantifying effectiveness of failure prediction and response in HPC systems : methodology and example.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mayo, Jackson R.; Chen, Frank Xiaoxiao; Pebay, Philippe Pierre

2010-06-01

Effective failure prediction and mitigation strategies in high-performance computing systems could provide huge gains in resilience of tightly coupled large-scale scientific codes. These gains would come from prediction-directed process migration and resource servicing, intelligent resource allocation, and checkpointing driven by failure predictors rather than at regular intervals based on nominal mean time to failure. Given probabilistic associations of outlier behavior in hardware-related metrics with eventual failure in hardware, system software, and/or applications, this paper explores approaches for quantifying the effects of prediction and mitigation strategies and demonstrates these using actual production system data. We describe context-relevant methodologies for determining themore » accuracy and cost-benefit of predictors. While many research studies have quantified the expected impact of growing system size, and the associated shortened mean time to failure (MTTF), on application performance in large-scale high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, there has been little if any work to quantify the possible gains from predicting system resource failures with significant but imperfect accuracy. This possibly stems from HPC system complexity and the fact that, to date, no one has established any good predictors of failure in these systems. Our work in the OVIS project aims to discover these predictors via a variety of data collection techniques and statistical analysis methods that yield probabilistic predictions. The question then is, 'How good or useful are these predictions?' We investigate methods for answering this question in a general setting, and illustrate them using a specific failure predictor discovered on a production system at Sandia.« less

Comparison of three methods to identify the anaerobic threshold during maximal exercise testing in patients with chronic heart failure.

PubMed

Beckers, Paul J; Possemiers, Nadine M; Van Craenenbroeck, Emeline M; Van Berendoncks, An M; Wuyts, Kurt; Vrints, Christiaan J; Conraads, Viviane M

2012-02-01

Exercise training efficiently improves peak oxygen uptake (V˙O2peak) in patients with chronic heart failure. To optimize training-derived benefit, higher exercise intensities are being explored. The correct identification of anaerobic threshold is important to allow safe and effective exercise prescription. During 48 cardiopulmonary exercise tests obtained in patients with chronic heart failure (59.6 ± 11 yrs; left ventricular ejection fraction, 27.9% ± 9%), ventilatory gas analysis findings and lactate measurements were collected. Three technicians independently determined the respiratory compensation point (RCP), the heart rate turning point (HRTP) and the second lactate turning point (LTP2). Thereafter, exercise intensity (target heart rate and workload) was calculated and compared between the three methods applied. Patients had significantly reduced maximal exercise capacity (68% ± 21% of predicted V˙O2peak) and chronotropic incompetence (74% ± 7% of predicted peak heart rate). Heart rate, workload, and V˙O2 at HRTP and at RCP were not different, but at LTP2, these parameters were significantly (P < 0.0001) higher. Mean target heart rate and target workload calculated using the LTP2 were 5% and 12% higher compared with those calculated using HRTP and RCP, respectively. The calculation of target heart rate based on LTP2 was 5% and 10% higher in 12 of 48 (25%) and 6 of 48 (12.5%) patients, respectively, compared with the other two methods. In patients with chronic heart failure, RCP and HRTP, determined during cardiopulmonary exercise tests, precede the occurrence of LTP2. Target heart rates and workloads used to prescribe tailored exercise training in patients with chronic heart failure based on LTP2 are significantly higher than those derived from HRTP and RCP.

Electromigration model for the prediction of lifetime based on the failure unit statistics in aluminum metallization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jong Ho; Ahn, Byung Tae

2003-01-01

A failure model for electromigration based on the "failure unit model" was presented for the prediction of lifetime in metal lines.The failure unit model, which consists of failure units in parallel and series, can predict both the median time to failure (MTTF) and the deviation in the time to failure (DTTF) in Al metal lines. The model can describe them only qualitatively. In our model, both the probability function of the failure unit in single grain segments and polygrain segments are considered instead of in polygrain segments alone. Based on our model, we calculated MTTF, DTTF, and activation energy for different median grain sizes, grain size distributions, linewidths, line lengths, current densities, and temperatures. Comparisons between our results and published experimental data showed good agreements and our model could explain the previously unexplained phenomena. Our advanced failure unit model might be further applied to other electromigration characteristics of metal lines.

An experimental and analytical investigation on the response of GR/EP composite I-frames

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moas, E., Jr.; Boitnott, R. L.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.

1991-01-01

Six-foot diameter, semicircular graphite/epoxy specimens representative of generic aircraft frames were loaded quasi-statically to determine their load response and failure mechanisms for large deflections that occur in an airplane crash. These frame-skin specimens consisted of a cylindrical skin section cocured with a semicircular I-frame. Various frame laminate stacking sequences and geometries were evaluated by statically loading the specimen until multiple failures occurred. Two analytical methods were compared for modeling the frame-skin specimens: a two-dimensional branched-shell finite element analysis and a one-dimensional, closed-form, curved beam solution derived using an energy method. Excellent correlation was obtained between experimental results and the finite element predictions of the linear response of the frames prior to the initial failure. The beam solution was used for rapid parameter and design studies, and was found to be stiff in comparison with the finite element analysis. The specimens were found to be useful for evaluating composite frame designs.

Predicting in ungauged basins using a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skaugen, Thomas; Olav Peerebom, Ivar; Nilsson, Anna

2015-04-01

Prediction in ungauged basins is a demanding, but necessary test for hydrological model structures. Ideally, the relationship between model parameters and catchment characteristics (CC) should be hydrologically justifiable. Many studies, however, report on failure to obtain significant correlations between model parameters and CCs. Under the hypothesis that the lack of correlations stems from non-identifiability of model parameters caused by overparameterization, the relatively new parameter parsimonious DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model was tested for predictions in ungauged basins in Norway. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than, for example, the well-known Swedish HBV model. In this study, multiple regression equations relating CCs and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p- value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22-0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For 10 of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash-Suthcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1. The median NSE for the regionalised DDD for the 17 catchments, for two different time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt, respectively. This latter result indicates the topic for further improvements in the model structure of DDD.

Life Assessment for Cr-Mo Steel Dissimilar Joints by Various Filler Metals Using Accelerated Creep Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petchsang, S.; Phung-on, I.; Poopat, B.

2016-12-01

Accelerated creep rupture tests were performed on T22/T91 dissimilar metal joints to determine the fracture location and rupture time of different weldments. Four configurations of deposited filler metal were tested using gas tungsten arc welding to estimate the service life for Cr-Mo steel dissimilar joints at elevated temperatures in power plants. Results indicated that failure in all configurations occurred in the tempered original microstructure and tempered austenite transformation products (martensite or bainite structure) as type IV cracking at the intercritical area of the heat-affected zone (ICHAZ) for both T22 and T91 sides rather than as a consequence of the different filler metals. Creep damage occurred with the formation of precipitations and microvoids. The correlation between applied stress and the Larson-Miller parameter (PLM) was determined to predict the service life of each material configuration. Calculated time-to-failure based on the PLM and test results for both temperature and applied stress parameters gave a reasonable fit. The dissimilar joints exhibited lower creep rupture compared to the base material indicating creep degradation of the weldment.

Experimental investigation and constitutive model for lime mudstone.

PubMed

Wang, Junbao; Liu, Xinrong; Zhao, Baoyun; Song, Zhanping; Lai, Jinxing

2016-01-01

In order to investigate the mechanical properties of lime mudstone, conventional triaxial compression tests under different confining pressures (0, 5, 15 and 20 MPa) are performed on lime mudstone samples. The test results show that, from the overall perspective of variation law, the axial peak stress, axial peak strain and elastic modulus of lime mudstone tend to gradually increase with increasing confining pressure. In the range of tested confining pressure, the variations in axial peak stress and elastic modulus with confining pressure can be described with linear functions; while the variation in axial peak strain with confining pressure can be reflected with a power function. To describe the axial stress-strain behavior in failure process of lime mudstone, a new constitutive model is proposed, with the model characteristics analyzed and the parameter determination method put forward. Compared with Wang' model, only one parameter n is added to the new model. The comparison of predicted curves from the model and test data indicates that the new model can preferably simulate the strain softening property of lime mudstone and the axial stress-strain response in rock failure process.

Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westoby, M. J.; Brasington, J.; Glasser, N. F.; Hambrey, M. J.; Reynolds, J. M.; Hassan, M. A. A. M.; Lowe, A.

2015-03-01

The instability of moraine-dammed proglacial lakes creates the potential for catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high-mountain regions. In this research, we use a unique combination of numerical dam-breach and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, employed within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework, to quantify predictive uncertainty in model outputs associated with a reconstruction of the Dig Tsho failure in Nepal. Monte Carlo analysis was used to sample the model parameter space, and morphological descriptors of the moraine breach were used to evaluate model performance. Multiple breach scenarios were produced by differing parameter ensembles associated with a range of breach initiation mechanisms, including overtopping waves and mechanical failure of the dam face. The material roughness coefficient was found to exert a dominant influence over model performance. The downstream routing of scenario-specific breach hydrographs revealed significant differences in the timing and extent of inundation. A GLUE-based methodology for constructing probabilistic maps of inundation extent, flow depth, and hazard is presented and provides a useful tool for communicating uncertainty in GLOF hazard assessment.

Prognostic impact of intestinal wall thickening in hospitalized patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Ikeda, Yuki; Ishii, Shunsuke; Fujita, Teppei; Iida, Yuichiro; Kaida, Toyoji; Nabeta, Takeru; Maekawa, Emi; Yanagisawa, Tomoyoshi; Koitabashi, Toshimi; Takeuchi, Ichiro; Inomata, Takayuki; Ako, Junya

2017-03-01

Intestine-cardiovascular relationship has been increasingly recognized as a key factor in patients with heart disease. We aimed to identify the relationships among intestinal wall edema, cardiac function, and adverse clinical events in hospitalized heart failure (HF) patients. Abdominal computed tomographic images of 168 hospitalized HF patients were retrospectively investigated for identification of average colon wall thickness (CWT) from the ascending to sigmoid colon. Relationships between average CWT and echocardiographic parameters, blood sampling data, and primary outcomes including readmission for deteriorated HF and all-cause mortality were evaluated. Among the echocardiographic parameters, lower left ventricular diastolic function was correlated with higher average CWT. In multivariate analysis, higher logarithmic C-reactive protein level, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, lower peripheral blood lymphocyte count, higher E/E' ratio, and extremely higher/lower defecation frequency were independently correlated with higher average CWT. Multivariate Cox-hazard analysis demonstrated that higher average CWT was independently related to higher incidence of primary outcomes. In hospitalized HF patients, increased CWT was associated with lower cardiac performance, and predicted poorer long-term clinical outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluation of a Linear Cumulative Damage Failure Model for Epoxy Adhesive

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David E.; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia; Macon, David; Totman, Peter; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Recently a significant amount of work has been conducted to provide more complex and accurate material models for use in the evaluation of adhesive bondlines. Some of this has been prompted by recent studies into the effects of residual stresses on the integrity of bondlines. Several techniques have been developed for the analysis of bondline residual stresses. Key to these analyses is the criterion that is used for predicting failure. Residual stress loading of an adhesive bondline can occur over the life of the component. For many bonded systems, this can be several years. It is impractical to directly characterize failure of adhesive bondlines under a constant load for several years. Therefore, alternative approaches for predictions of bondline failures are required. In the past, cumulative damage failure models have been developed. These models have ranged from very simple to very complex. This paper documents the generation and evaluation of some of the most simple linear damage accumulation tensile failure models for an epoxy adhesive. This paper shows how several variations on the failure model were generated and presents an evaluation of the accuracy of these failure models in predicting creep failure of the adhesive. The paper shows that a simple failure model can be generated from short-term failure data for accurate predictions of long-term adhesive performance.

Ductile failure X-prize.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, James V.; Wellman, Gerald William; Emery, John M.

2011-09-01

Fracture or tearing of ductile metals is a pervasive engineering concern, yet accurate prediction of the critical conditions of fracture remains elusive. Sandia National Laboratories has been developing and implementing several new modeling methodologies to address problems in fracture, including both new physical models and new numerical schemes. The present study provides a double-blind quantitative assessment of several computational capabilities including tearing parameters embedded in a conventional finite element code, localization elements, extended finite elements (XFEM), and peridynamics. For this assessment, each of four teams reported blind predictions for three challenge problems spanning crack initiation and crack propagation. After predictionsmore » had been reported, the predictions were compared to experimentally observed behavior. The metal alloys for these three problems were aluminum alloy 2024-T3 and precipitation hardened stainless steel PH13-8Mo H950. The predictive accuracies of the various methods are demonstrated, and the potential sources of error are discussed.« less

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

PubMed

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Regression to fuzziness method for estimation of remaining useful life in power plant components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alamaniotis, Miltiadis; Grelle, Austin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.

2014-10-01

Mitigation of severe accidents in power plants requires the reliable operation of all systems and the on-time replacement of mechanical components. Therefore, the continuous surveillance of power systems is a crucial concern for the overall safety, cost control, and on-time maintenance of a power plant. In this paper a methodology called regression to fuzziness is presented that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of power plant components. The RUL is defined as the difference between the time that a measurement was taken and the estimated failure time of that component. The methodology aims to compensate for a potential lack of historical data by modeling an expert's operational experience and expertise applied to the system. It initially identifies critical degradation parameters and their associated value range. Once completed, the operator's experience is modeled through fuzzy sets which span the entire parameter range. This model is then synergistically used with linear regression and a component's failure point to estimate the RUL. The proposed methodology is tested on estimating the RUL of a turbine (the basic electrical generating component of a power plant) in three different cases. Results demonstrate the benefits of the methodology for components for which operational data is not readily available and emphasize the significance of the selection of fuzzy sets and the effect of knowledge representation on the predicted output. To verify the effectiveness of the methodology, it was benchmarked against the data-based simple linear regression model used for predictions which was shown to perform equal or worse than the presented methodology. Furthermore, methodology comparison highlighted the improvement in estimation offered by the adoption of appropriate of fuzzy sets for parameter representation.

Gender and age related predictive value of walk test in heart failure: do anthropometrics matter in clinical practice?

PubMed

Frankenstein, L; Remppis, A; Graham, J; Schellberg, D; Sigg, C; Nelles, M; Katus, H A; Zugck, C

2008-07-21

The six-minute walk test (6 WT) is a valid and reliable predictor of morbidity and mortality in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients, frequently used as an endpoint or target in clinical trials. As opposed to spiroergometry, improvement of its prognostic accuracy by correction for height, weight, age and gender has not yet been attempted comprehensively despite known influences of these parameters. We recorded the 6 WT of 1035 CHF patients, attending clinic from 1995 to 2005. The 1-year prognostic value of 6 WT was calculated, alone and after correction for height, weight, BMI and/or age. Analysis was performed on the entire cohort, on males and females separately and stratified according to BMI (<25, 25-30 and >30 kg/m(2)). 6 WT weakly correlated with age (r=-0.32; p<0.0001), height (r=0.2; p<0.0001), weight (r=0.11; p<0.001), not with BMI (r=0.01; p=ns). The 6 WT was a strong predictor of 1-year mortality in both genders, both as a single and age corrected parameter. Parameters derived from correction of 6 WT for height, weight or BMI did not improve the prognostic value in univariate analysis for either gender. Comparison of the receiver operated characteristics showed no significant gain in prognostic accuracy from any derived variable, either for males or females. The six-minute walk test is a valid tool for risk prediction in both male and female CHF patients. In both genders, correcting 6 WT distance for height, weight or BMI alone, or adjusting for age, does not increase the prognostic power of this tool.

Predictors of treatment failure in young patients undergoing in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Jacobs, Marni B; Klonoff-Cohen, Hillary; Agarwal, Sanjay; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Lindsay, Suzanne; Garzo, V Gabriel

2016-08-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether routinely collected clinical factors can predict in vitro fertilization (IVF) failure among young, "good prognosis" patients predominantly with secondary infertility who are less than 35 years of age. Using de-identified clinic records, 414 women <35 years undergoing their first autologous IVF cycle were identified. Logistic regression was used to identify patient-driven clinical factors routinely collected during fertility treatment that could be used to model predicted probability of cycle failure. One hundred ninety-seven patients with both primary and secondary infertility had a failed IVF cycle, and 217 with secondary infertility had a successful live birth. None of the women with primary infertility had a successful live birth. The significant predictors for IVF cycle failure among young patients were fewer previous live births, history of biochemical pregnancies or spontaneous abortions, lower baseline antral follicle count, higher total gonadotropin dose, unknown infertility diagnosis, and lack of at least one fair to good quality embryo. The full model showed good predictive value (c = 0.885) for estimating risk of cycle failure; at ≥80 % predicted probability of failure, sensitivity = 55.4 %, specificity = 97.5 %, positive predictive value = 95.4 %, and negative predictive value = 69.8 %. If this predictive model is validated in future studies, it could be beneficial for predicting IVF failure in good prognosis women under the age of 35 years.

Application of Gurson–Tvergaard–Needleman Constitutive Model to the Tensile Behavior of Reinforcing Bars with Corrosion Pits

PubMed Central

Xu, Yidong; Qian, Chunxiang

2013-01-01

Based on meso-damage mechanics and finite element analysis, the aim of this paper is to describe the feasibility of the Gurson–Tvergaard–Needleman (GTN) constitutive model in describing the tensile behavior of corroded reinforcing bars. The orthogonal test results showed that different fracture pattern and the related damage evolution process can be simulated by choosing different material parameters of GTN constitutive model. Compared with failure parameters, the two constitutive parameters are significant factors affecting the tensile strength. Both the nominal yield and ultimate tensile strength decrease markedly with the increase of constitutive parameters. Combining with the latest data and trial-and-error method, the suitable material parameters of GTN constitutive model were adopted to simulate the tensile behavior of corroded reinforcing bars in concrete under carbonation environment attack. The numerical predictions can not only agree very well with experimental measurements, but also simplify the finite element modeling process. PMID:23342140

A method to adapt thoracic impedance based on chest geometry and composition to assess congestion in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Cuba-Gyllensten, Illapha; Gastelurrutia, Paloma; Bonomi, Alberto G; Riistama, Jarno; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Aarts, Ronald M

2016-04-14

Multi-frequency trans-thoracic bioimpedance (TTI) could be used to track fluid changes and congestion of the lungs, however, patient specific characteristics may impact the measurements. We investigated the effects of thoracic geometry and composition on measurements of TTI and developed an equation to calculate a personalized fluid index. Simulations of TTI measurements for varying levels of chest circumference, fat and muscle proportion were used to derive parameters for a model predicting expected values of TTI. This model was then adapted to measurements from a control group of 36 healthy volunteers to predict TTI and lung fluids (fluid index). Twenty heart failure (HF) patients treated for acute HF were then used to compare the changes in the personalized fluid index to symptoms of HF and predicted TTI to measurements at hospital discharge. All the derived body characteristics affected the TTI measurements in healthy volunteers and together the model predicted the measured TTI with 8.9% mean absolute error. In HF patients the estimated TTI correlated well with the discharged TTI (r=0.73,p <0.001) and the personalized fluid index followed changes in symptom levels during treatment. However, 37% (n=7) of the patients were discharged well below the model expected value. Accounting for chest geometry and composition might help in interpreting TTI measurements. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compression failure of angle-ply laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peel, Larry D.; Hyer, Michael W.; Shuart, Mark J.

1991-01-01

The present work deals with modes and mechanisms of failure in compression of angle-ply laminates. Experimental results were obtained from 42 angle-ply IM7/8551-7a specimens with a lay-up of ((plus or minus theta)/(plus or minus theta)) sub 6s where theta, the off-axis angle, ranged from 0 degrees to 90 degrees. The results showed four failure modes, these modes being a function of off-axis angle. Failure modes include fiber compression, inplane transverse tension, inplane shear, and inplane transverse compression. Excessive interlaminar shear strain was also considered as an important mode of failure. At low off-axis angles, experimentally observed values were considerably lower than published strengths. It was determined that laminate imperfections in the form of layer waviness could be a major factor in reducing compression strength. Previously developed linear buckling and geometrically nonlinear theories were used, with modifications and enhancements, to examine the influence of layer waviness on compression response. The wavy layer is described by a wave amplitude and a wave length. Linear elastic stress-strain response is assumed. The geometrically nonlinear theory, in conjunction with the maximum stress failure criterion, was used to predict compression failure and failure modes for the angle-ply laminates. A range of wave length and amplitudes were used. It was found that for 0 less than or equal to theta less than or equal to 15 degrees failure was most likely due to fiber compression. For 15 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 35 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse tension. For 35 degrees less than theta less than or equal to 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane shear. For theta less than 70 degrees, failure was most likely due to inplane transverse compression. The fiber compression and transverse tension failure modes depended more heavily on wave length than on wave amplitude. Thus using a single parameter, such as a ratio of wave amplitude to wave length, to describe waviness in a laminate would be inaccurate. Throughout, results for AS4/3502, studied previously, are included for comparison. At low off-axis angles, the AS4/3502 material system was found to be less sensitive to layer waviness than IM7/8551-7a. Analytical predictions were also obtained for laminates with waviness in only some of the layers. For this type of waviness, laminate compression strength could also be considered a function of which layers in the laminate were wavy, and where those wavy layers were. Overall, the geometrically nonlinear model correlates well with experimental results.

Echocardiographic phase imaging to predict reverse remodeling after cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Buss, Sebastian J; Humpert, Per M; Bekeredjian, Raffi; Hardt, Stefan E; Zugck, Christian; Schellberg, Dieter; Bauer, Alexander; Filusch, Arthur; Kuecherer, Helmut; Katus, Hugo A; Korosoglou, Grigorios

2009-05-01

The aim of our study was to investigate whether echocardiographic phase imaging (EPI) can predict response in patients who are considered for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). CRT improves quality of life, exercise capacity, and outcome in patients with bundle-branch block and advanced heart failure. Previous studies used QRS duration to select patients for CRT; the accuracy of this parameter to predict functional recovery, however, is controversial. We examined 42 patients with advanced heart failure (New York Heart Association [NYHA] functional class III to IV, QRS duration >130 ms, and ejection fraction <35%) before and 6 to 8 months after CRT. Left ventricular (LV) dyssynchrony was estimated by calculating the SD of time to peak velocities (Ts-SD) by conventional tissue Doppler imaging (TDI), and the mean phase index (mean EPI-Index) was calculated by EPI in 12 mid-ventricular and basal segments. Patients who were alive and had significant relative decrease in end-systolic LV volume of Delta ESV >or=15% at 6 to 8 months of follow-up were defined as responders. All others were classified as nonresponders. The Ts-SD and the mean EPI-Index were related to Delta ESV (r = 0.43 for Ts-SD and r = 0.67 for mean EPI-Index, p < 0.01 for both), and both parameters yielded similar accuracy for the prediction of LV remodeling (area under the curve of 0.87 for TDI vs. 0.90 for EPI, difference between areas = 0.03, p = NS) and ejection fraction (EF) improvement (area under the curve of 0.87 for TDI vs. 0.93 for EPI, difference between areas = 0.06, p = NS). Furthermore, patients classified as responders by EPI (mean EPI-Index

Naturally Acquired Learned Helplessness: The Relationship of School Failure to Achievement Behavior, Attributions, and Self-Concept.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Dona S.

1981-01-01

Personality and behavioral consequences of learned helplessness were monitored in children experiencing failure in school. The predictive quality of learned helplessness theory was compared with that of value expectancy theories. Low self-concept was predicted significantly by school failure, internal attributions for failure, and external…

Reinforcement of composite laminate free edges with U-shaped caps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howard, W. E.; Gossard, T., Jr.; Jones, R. M.

1986-01-01

Generalized plane strain finite element analysis is used to predict reduction of interlaminar normal stresses when a U-shaped cap is bonded to the edge of a laminate. Three-dimensional composite material failure criteria are used in a progressive laminate failure analysis to predict failure loads of laminates with different edge cap designs. In an experimental program, symmetric 11-layer graphite-epoxy laminates with a one-layer cap of Kevlar-epoxy cloth are shown to be 130 to 140 percent stronger than uncapped laminates under static tensile and tension-tension fatigue loading. In addition, the coefficient of variation of the static tensile failure load decreases from 24 to 8 percent when edge caps are added. The predicted failure load calculated with the finite element results is 10 percent lower than the actual failure load. For both capped and uncapped laminates, actual failure loads are much lower than those predicted using classical lamination theory stresses and a two-dimensional failure criterion. Possible applications of the free edge reinforcement concept are described, and future research is suggested.

Aeroelastic Flutter Behavior of Cantilever within a Nozzle-Diffuser Geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, Luis Phillipe; Colonius, Tim; Sherrit, Stewart; Lee, Hyeong Jae

2015-11-01

Aeroelastic flutter arises when the motion of a structure and its surrounding flowing fluid are coupled in a constructive manner, causing large amplitudes of vibration in the immersed solid. A cantilevered beam in axial flow within a nozzle-diffuser geometry exhibits interesting resonance behavior that presents good prospects for internal flow energy harvesting. Different modes can be excited as a function of throat velocity, nozzle geometry, fluid and cantilever material parameters. This work explores the relationship between the aeroelastic flutter instability boundaries and relevant non-dimensional parameters via experiments. Results suggest that for a linear expansion diffuser geometry, a non-dimensional stiffness, non-dimensional mass, and non-dimensional throat size are the critical parameters in mapping the instability. This map can serve as a guide to future work concerning possible electrical output and failure prediction in energy harvesters.

Review on failure prediction techniques of composite single lap joint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ab Ghani, A.F., E-mail: ahmadfuad@utem.edu.my; Rivai, Ahmad, E-mail: ahmadrivai@utem.edu.my

2016-03-29

Adhesive bonding is the most appropriate joining method in construction of composite structures. The use of reliable design and prediction technique will produce better performance of bonded joints. Several papers from recent papers and journals have been reviewed and synthesized to understand the current state of the art in this area. It is done by studying the most relevant analytical solutions for composite adherends with start of reviewing the most fundamental ones involving beam/plate theory. It is then extended to review single lap joint non linearity and failure prediction and finally on the failure prediction on composite single lap joint.more » The review also encompasses the finite element modelling part as tool to predict the elastic response of composite single lap joint and failure prediction numerically.« less

Generalization of the slip line field theory for temperature sensitive visco-plastic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paesold, Martin; Peters, Max; Regenauer-Lieb, Klaus; Veveakis, Manolis; Bassom, Andrew

2015-04-01

Geological processes can be a combination of various effects such as heat production or consumption, chemical reactions or fluid flow. These individual effects are coupled to each other via feedbacks and the mathematical analysis becomes challenging due to these interdependencies. Here, we concentrate solely on thermo-mechanical coupling and a main result of this work is that the coupling can depend on material parameters and boundary conditions and the coupling is more or less pronounced depending on theses parameters. The transitions from weak to strong coupling can be studied in the context of a bifurcation analysis. classically, Material instabilities in solids are approached as material bifurcations of a rate-independent, isothermal, elasto-plastic solid. However, previous research has shown that temperature and deformation rate are important factors and are fully coupled with the mechanical deformation. Early experiments in steel revealed a distinct pattern of localized heat dissipation and plastic deformation known as heat lines. Further, earth materials, soils, rocks and ceramics are known to be greatly influenced by temperature with strain localization being strongly affected by thermal loading. In this work, we provide a theoretical framework for the evolution of plastic deformation for such coupled systems, with a two-pronged approach to the prediction of localized failure. First, slip line field theory is employed to predict the geometry of the failure patterns and second, failure criteria are derived from an energy bifurcation analysis. The bifurcation analysis is concerned with the local energy balance of a material and compares the effects of heat diffusion terms and heat production terms where the heat production is due to mechanical processes. Commonly, the heat is produced locally along the slip lines and if the heat production outweighs diffusion the material is locally weakened which eventually leads to failure. The effect of diffusion and heat production is captured by a dimensionless quantity, the Gruntfest number, and only if the Gruntfest number is larger than a critical value localized failure occurs. This critical Gruntfest number depends on boundary conditions such as temperature or pressure and hence this critical value gives rise to localization criteria. We find that the results of this approach agree with earlier contributions to the theory of plasticity but gives the advantage of a unified framework which might prove useful in numerical schemes for visco-plasticity.

Quantifying Electromigration Processes in Sn-0.7Cu Solder with Lab-Scale X-Ray Computed Micro-Tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, James Charles Edwin

For decades, microelectronics manufacturing has been concerned with failures related to electromigration phenomena in conductors experiencing high current densities. The influence of interconnect microstructure on device failures related to electromigration in BGA and flip chip solder interconnects has become a significant interest with reduced individual solder interconnect volumes. A survey indicates that x-ray computed micro-tomography (muXCT) is an emerging, novel means for characterizing the microstructures' role in governing electromigration failures. This work details the design and construction of a lab-scale muXCT system to characterize electromigration in the Sn-0.7Cu lead-free solder system by leveraging in situ imaging. In order to enhance the attenuation contrast observed in multi-phase material systems, a modeling approach has been developed to predict settings for the controllable imaging parameters which yield relatively high detection rates over the range of x-ray energies for which maximum attenuation contrast is expected in the polychromatic x-ray imaging system. In order to develop this predictive tool, a model has been constructed for the Bremsstrahlung spectrum of an x-ray tube, and calculations for the detector's efficiency over the relevant range of x-ray energies have been made, and the product of emitted and detected spectra has been used to calculate the effective x-ray imaging spectrum. An approach has also been established for filtering 'zinger' noise in x-ray radiographs, which has proven problematic at high x-ray energies used for solder imaging. The performance of this filter has been compared with a known existing method and the results indicate a significant increase in the accuracy of zinger filtered radiographs. The obtained results indicate the conception of a powerful means for the study of failure causing processes in solder systems used as interconnects in microelectronic packaging devices. These results include the volumetric quantification of parameters which are indicative of both electromigration tolerance of solders and the dominant mechanisms for atomic migration in response to current stressing. This work is aimed to further the community's understanding of failure-causing electromigration processes in industrially relevant material systems for microelectronic interconnect applications and to advance the capability of available characterization techniques for their interrogation.

Comparison of the Walz Nomogram and Presence of Secondary Circulating Prostate Cells for Predicting Early Biochemical Failure after Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer in Chilean Men.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Reyes, Eduardo; Orellana, Nelson; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar

2015-01-01

To determine the utility of secondary circulating prostate cells for predicting early biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer and compare the results with the Walz nomagram. A single centre, prospective study of men with prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy between 2004 and 2014 was conducted, with registration of clinical-pathological details, total serum PSA pre-surgery, Gleason score, extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, infiltration of lymph nodes, seminal vesicles and pathological stage. Secondary circulating prostate cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation and assessed using standard immunocytochemistry with anti-PSA. Biochemical failure was defined as a PSA >0.2ng/ml, predictive values werecalculated using the Walz nomagram and CPC detection. A total of 326 men participated, with a median follow up of 5 years; 64 had biochemical failure within two years. Extracapsular extension, positive surgical margins, pathological stage, Gleason score ≥ 8, infiltration of seminal vesicles and lymph nodes were all associated with higher risk of biochemical failure. The discriminative value for the nomogram and circulating prostate cells was high (AUC >0.80), predictive values were higher for circulating prostate cell detection, with a negative predictive value of 99%, sensitivity of 96% and specificity of 75%. The nomagram had good predictive power to identify men with a high risk of biochemical failure within two years. The presence of circulating prostate cells had the same predictive power, with a higher sensitivity and negative predictive value. The presence of secondary circulating prostate cells identifies a group of men with a high risk of early biochemical failure. Those negative for secondary CPCs have a very low risk of early biochemical failure.

Fatigue Life Prediction of Fiber-Reinforced Ceramic-Matrix Composites with Different Fiber Preforms at Room and Elevated Temperatures

PubMed Central

Li, Longbiao

2016-01-01

In this paper, the fatigue life of fiber-reinforced ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) with different fiber preforms, i.e., unidirectional, cross-ply, 2D (two dimensional), 2.5D and 3D CMCs at room and elevated temperatures in air and oxidative environments, has been predicted using the micromechanics approach. An effective coefficient of the fiber volume fraction along the loading direction (ECFL) was introduced to describe the fiber architecture of preforms. The statistical matrix multicracking model and fracture mechanics interface debonding criterion were used to determine the matrix crack spacing and interface debonded length. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fiber broken fraction was determined by combining the interface wear model and fiber statistical failure model at room temperature, and interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fiber statistical failure model at elevated temperatures, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfies the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fiber fraction approaches the critical value, the composites fatigue fracture. PMID:28773332

Creep life prediction of super heater coils used in coal based thermal power plants subjected to fly ash erosion and oxide scale formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, P.; Kushwaha, Shashank

2018-04-01

Super heater coils of the coal based thermal power plants and subjected to severe operating conditions from both steam side and gas side. Formation of oxide scale due to prolonged service lead to temperature raise of the tube and erosion due to fly ash present in the combusted gases leads to tube thinning. Both these factors lead to creep rupture of the coils much before the designed service life. Failure of super heater coils during service of the boiler leads to power loss and huge monitory loss to the power plants. An attempt is made to model the creep damage caused to the super heater coils using heat transfer analysis tube thinning due to erosive wear of the tubes. Combined effects of these parameters are taken into consideration to predict the life of the super heater coils. This model may be used to estimate the life of the coils operating under the severe operating conditions to prevent the unexpected failure of the coils.

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-10-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Millwater, Harry R.; Torng, Tony Y.; Riha, David S.

1993-01-01

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Numerical investigations of rib fracture failure models in different dynamic loading conditions.

PubMed

Wang, Fang; Yang, Jikuang; Miller, Karol; Li, Guibing; Joldes, Grand R; Doyle, Barry; Wittek, Adam

2016-01-01

Rib fracture is one of the most common thoracic injuries in vehicle traffic accidents that can result in fatalities associated with seriously injured internal organs. A failure model is critical when modelling rib fracture to predict such injuries. Different rib failure models have been proposed in prediction of thorax injuries. However, the biofidelity of the fracture failure models when varying the loading conditions and the effects of a rib fracture failure model on prediction of thoracic injuries have been studied only to a limited extent. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of three rib failure models on prediction of thoracic injuries using a previously validated finite element model of the human thorax. The performance and biofidelity of each rib failure model were first evaluated by modelling rib responses to different loading conditions in two experimental configurations: (1) the three-point bending on the specimen taken from rib and (2) the anterior-posterior dynamic loading to an entire bony part of the rib. Furthermore, the simulation of the rib failure behaviour in the frontal impact to an entire thorax was conducted at varying velocities and the effects of the failure models were analysed with respect to the severity of rib cage damages. Simulation results demonstrated that the responses of the thorax model are similar to the general trends of the rib fracture responses reported in the experimental literature. However, they also indicated that the accuracy of the rib fracture prediction using a given failure model varies for different loading conditions.

Correlative Analysis of Vertebral Trabecular Bone Microarchitecture and Mechanical Properties: A Combined Ultra-high Field (7 Tesla) MRI and Biomechanical Investigation.

PubMed

Guenoun, Daphne; Fouré, Alexandre; Pithioux, Martine; Guis, Sandrine; Le Corroller, Thomas; Mattei, Jean-Pierre; Pauly, Vanessa; Guye, Maxime; Bernard, Monique; Chabrand, Patrick; Champsaur, Pierre; Bendahan, David

2017-10-15

High-resolution imaging and biomechanical investigation of ex-vivo vertebrae. The aim of this study was to assess bone microarchitecture of cadaveric vertebrae using ultra-high field (UHF) 7 Tesla magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to determine whether the corresponding microarchitecture parameters were related to bone mineral density (BMD) and bone strength assessed by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and mechanical compression tests. Limitations of DXA for the assessment of bone fragility and osteoporosis have been recognized and criteria of microarchitecture alteration have been included in the definition of osteoporosis. Although vertebral fracture is the most common osteoporotic fracture, no study has assessed directly vertebral trabecular bone microarchitecture. BMD of 24 vertebrae (L2, L3, L4) from eight cadavers was investigated using DXA. The bone volume fraction (BVF), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th), and trabecular spacing (Tb.Sp) of each vertebra were quantified using UHF MRI. Measurements were performed by two operators to characterize the inter-rater reliability. The whole set of specimens underwent mechanical compression tests to failure and the corresponding failure stress was calculated. The inter-rater reliability for bone microarchitecture parameters was good with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from 0.82 to 0.94. Failure load and stress were significantly correlated with BVF, Tb.Sp, and BMD (P < 0.05). Tb.Th was only correlated with the failure stress (P < 0.05). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that the combination of BVF and BMD improved the prediction of the failure stress from an adjusted R = 0.384 for BMD alone to an adjusted R = 0.414. We demonstrated for the first time that the vertebral bone microarchitecture assessed with UHF MRI was significantly correlated with biomechanical parameters. Our data suggest that the multimodal assessment of BMD and trabecular bone microarchitecture with UHF MRI provides additional information on the risk of vertebral bone fracture and might be of interest for the future investigation of selected osteoporotic patients. N /A.

Influence of Finite Element Size in Residual Strength Prediction of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Bogert, Philip B.; Karayev, Kazbek Z.; Nordman, Paul S.; Razi, Hamid

2012-01-01

The sensitivity of failure load to the element size used in a progressive failure analysis (PFA) of carbon composite center notched laminates is evaluated. The sensitivity study employs a PFA methodology previously developed by the authors consisting of Hashin-Rotem intra-laminar fiber and matrix failure criteria and a complete stress degradation scheme for damage simulation. The approach is implemented with a user defined subroutine in the ABAQUS/Explicit finite element package. The effect of element size near the notch tips on residual strength predictions was assessed for a brittle failure mode with a parametric study that included three laminates of varying material system, thickness and stacking sequence. The study resulted in the selection of an element size of 0.09 in. X 0.09 in., which was later used for predicting crack paths and failure loads in sandwich panels and monolithic laminated panels. Comparison of predicted crack paths and failure loads for these panels agreed well with experimental observations. Additionally, the element size vs. normalized failure load relationship, determined in the parametric study, was used to evaluate strength-scaling factors for three different element sizes. The failure loads predicted with all three element sizes provided converged failure loads with respect to that corresponding with the 0.09 in. X 0.09 in. element size. Though preliminary in nature, the strength-scaling concept has the potential to greatly reduce the computational time required for PFA and can enable the analysis of large scale structural components where failure is dominated by fiber failure in tension.

Reactive flow modeling of small scale detonation failure experiments for a baseline non-ideal explosive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittell, David E.; Cummock, Nick R.; Son, Steven F.

2016-08-01

Small scale characterization experiments using only 1-5 g of a baseline ammonium nitrate plus fuel oil (ANFO) explosive are discussed and simulated using an ignition and growth reactive flow model. There exists a strong need for the small scale characterization of non-ideal explosives in order to adequately survey the wide parameter space in sample composition, density, and microstructure of these materials. However, it is largely unknown in the scientific community whether any useful or meaningful result may be obtained from detonation failure, and whether a minimum sample size or level of confinement exists for the experiments. In this work, it is shown that the parameters of an ignition and growth rate law may be calibrated using the small scale data, which is obtained from a 35 GHz microwave interferometer. Calibration is feasible when the samples are heavily confined and overdriven; this conclusion is supported with detailed simulation output, including pressure and reaction contours inside the ANFO samples. The resulting shock wave velocity is most likely a combined chemical-mechanical response, and simulations of these experiments require an accurate unreacted equation of state (EOS) in addition to the calibrated reaction rate. Other experiments are proposed to gain further insight into the detonation failure data, as well as to help discriminate between the role of the EOS and reaction rate in predicting the measured outcome.

Reactive flow modeling of small scale detonation failure experiments for a baseline non-ideal explosive

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kittell, David E.; Cummock, Nick R.; Son, Steven F.

2016-08-14

Small scale characterization experiments using only 1–5 g of a baseline ammonium nitrate plus fuel oil (ANFO) explosive are discussed and simulated using an ignition and growth reactive flow model. There exists a strong need for the small scale characterization of non-ideal explosives in order to adequately survey the wide parameter space in sample composition, density, and microstructure of these materials. However, it is largely unknown in the scientific community whether any useful or meaningful result may be obtained from detonation failure, and whether a minimum sample size or level of confinement exists for the experiments. In this work, itmore » is shown that the parameters of an ignition and growth rate law may be calibrated using the small scale data, which is obtained from a 35 GHz microwave interferometer. Calibration is feasible when the samples are heavily confined and overdriven; this conclusion is supported with detailed simulation output, including pressure and reaction contours inside the ANFO samples. The resulting shock wave velocity is most likely a combined chemical-mechanical response, and simulations of these experiments require an accurate unreacted equation of state (EOS) in addition to the calibrated reaction rate. Other experiments are proposed to gain further insight into the detonation failure data, as well as to help discriminate between the role of the EOS and reaction rate in predicting the measured outcome.« less

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.; ...

2016-03-14

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary conditions, need for a thermomechanical treatment of the heat generation in the dynamic loading condition, and further difficulties in model calibration based on limited real-world engineering data. As with the prior challenge, this work not only documents the ‘state-of-the-art’ in computational failure prediction of ductile tearing scenarios, but also provides a detailed dataset for non-blind assessment of alternative methods.« less

The second Sandia Fracture Challenge. Predictions of ductile failure under quasi-static and moderate-rate dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boyce, B. L.; Kramer, S. L. B.; Bosiljevac, T. R.

Ductile failure of structural metals is relevant to a wide range of engineering scenarios. Computational methods are employed to anticipate the critical conditions of failure, yet they sometimes provide inaccurate and misleading predictions. Challenge scenarios, such as the one presented in the current work, provide an opportunity to assess the blind, quantitative predictive ability of simulation methods against a previously unseen failure problem. Instead of evaluating the predictions of a single simulation approach, the Sandia Fracture Challenge relied on numerous volunteer teams with expertise in computational mechanics to apply a broad range of computational methods, numerical algorithms, and constitutive modelsmore » to the challenge. This exercise is intended to evaluate the state of health of technologies available for failure prediction. In the first Sandia Fracture Challenge, a wide range of issues were raised in ductile failure modeling, including a lack of consistency in failure models, the importance of shear calibration data, and difficulties in quantifying the uncertainty of prediction [see Boyce et al. (Int J Fract 186:5–68, 2014) for details of these observations]. This second Sandia Fracture Challenge investigated the ductile rupture of a Ti–6Al–4V sheet under both quasi-static and modest-rate dynamic loading (failure in ~ 0.1 s). Like the previous challenge, the sheet had an unusual arrangement of notches and holes that added geometric complexity and fostered a competition between tensile- and shear-dominated failure modes. The teams were asked to predict the fracture path and quantitative far-field failure metrics such as the peak force and displacement to cause crack initiation. Fourteen teams contributed blind predictions, and the experimental outcomes were quantified in three independent test labs. In addition, shortcomings were revealed in this second challenge such as inconsistency in the application of appropriate boundary conditions, need for a thermomechanical treatment of the heat generation in the dynamic loading condition, and further difficulties in model calibration based on limited real-world engineering data. As with the prior challenge, this work not only documents the ‘state-of-the-art’ in computational failure prediction of ductile tearing scenarios, but also provides a detailed dataset for non-blind assessment of alternative methods.« less

Performance of immunological response in predicting virological failure.

PubMed

Ingole, Nayana; Mehta, Preeti; Pazare, Amar; Paranjpe, Supriya; Sarkate, Purva

2013-03-01

In HIV-infected individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), the decision on when to switch from first-line to second-line therapy is dictated by treatment failure, and this can be measured in three ways: clinically, immunologically, and virologically. While viral load (VL) decreases and CD4 cell increases typically occur together after starting ART, discordant responses may be seen. Hence the current study was designed to determine the immunological and virological response to ART and to evaluate the utility of immunological response to predict virological failure. All treatment-naive HIV-positive individuals aged >18 years who were eligible for ART were enrolled and assessed at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months clinically and by CD4 cell count and viral load estimations. The patients were categorized as showing concordant favorable (CF), immunological only (IO), virological only (VO), and concordant unfavorable responses (CU). The efficiency of immunological failure to predict virological failure was analyzed across various levels of virological failure (VL>50, >500, and >5,000 copies/ml). At 6 months, 87(79.81%), 7(5.5%), 13 (11.92%), and 2 (1.83%) patients and at 12 months 61(69.3%), 9(10.2%), 16 (18.2%), and 2 (2.3%) patients had CF, IO, VO, and CU responses, respectively. Immunological failure criteria had a very low sensitivity (11.1-40%) and positive predictive value (8.3-25%) to predict virological failure. Immunological criteria do not accurately predict virological failure resulting in significant misclassification of therapeutic responses. There is an urgent need for inclusion of viral load testing in the initiation and monitoring of ART.

Effects of hypothermia on pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics: a systematic review of preclinical and clinical studies.

PubMed

van den Broek, Marcel P H; Groenendaal, Floris; Egberts, Antoine C G; Rademaker, Carin M A

2010-05-01

Examples of clinical applications of therapeutic hypothermia in modern clinical medicine include traumatic cardiac arrest, ischaemic stroke and, more recently, acute perinatal asphyxia in neonates. The exact mechanism of (neuro)protection by hypothermia is unknown. Since most enzymatic processes exhibit temperature dependency, it can be expected that therapeutic hypothermia may cause alterations in both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters, which could result in an increased risk of drug toxicity or therapy failure. Generalizable knowledge about the effect of therapeutic hypothermia on pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics could lead to more appropriate dosing and thereby prediction of clinical effects. This article reviews the evidence on the influence of therapeutic hypothermia on individual pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters. A literature search was conducted within the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases from January 1965 to September 2008, comparing pharmacokinetic and/or pharmacodynamic parameters in hypothermia and normothermia regarding preclinical (animal) and clinical (human) studies. During hypothermia, pharmacokinetic parameters alter, resulting in drug and metabolite accumulation in the plasma for the majority of drugs. Impaired clearance is the most striking effect. Based on impaired clearance, dosages should be decreased considerably, especially for drugs with a low therapeutic index. Hypothetically, high-clearance compounds are affected more than low-clearance compounds because of the additional effect of impaired hepatic blood flow. The volume of distribution also changes, which may lead to therapy failure when it increases and could lead to toxicity when it decreases. The pH-partitioning hypothesis could contribute to the changes in the volumes of distribution for weak bases and acids, depending on their acid dissociation constants and acid-base status. Pharmacodynamic parameters may also alter, depending on the hypothermic regimen, drug target location, pharmacological mechanism and metabolic pathway of inactivation. The pharmacological response changes when target sensitivity alters. Rewarming patients to normothermia can also result in toxicity or therapy failure. The integrated effect of hypothermia on pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of individual drugs is unclear. Therefore, therapeutic drug monitoring is currently considered essential for drugs with a low therapeutic index, drugs with active metabolites, high-clearance compounds and drugs that are inactivated by enzymes at the site of effect. Because most of the studies (74%) included in this review contain preclinical data, clinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic studies are essential for the development of substantiated dose regimens to avoid toxicity and therapy failure in patients treated with hypothermia.

WE-G-BRD-09: Prediction of Local Control/Failure by Using Feature Histogram Selection in Follow-Up T2-Weighted MR Image in Spinal Tumors After Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, J; Harb, J; Jawad, M

2014-06-15

Purpose: In follow-up T2-weighted MR images of spinal tumor patients treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT), high intensity features embedded in dark surroundings may suggest a local failure (LF). We investigated image intensity histogram in imaging features to predict LF and local control (LC). Methods: Sixty-seven spinal tumors were treated with SBRT at our institution with scheduled follow-up MR T2-weighted (TR 3200–6600ms; TE 75-132ms) imaging. The LF group included 10 tumors with 8.7 months median follow-up, while the LC group had 11 tumors with 24.1 months median follow-up. The follow-up images were fused to the planning CT. Image intensitymore » histograms of the GTV were calculated. Voxels in greater than 90% (V90), 80% (V80), and peak (Vpeak) of the histogram were grouped into sub-ROIs to determine the best feature histogram. The intensity of each sub-ROI was evaluated using the mean T2-weighted signal ratio (intensity in sub-ROI / intensity in normal vertebrae). An ROC curve in predicting LF for each sub-ROI was calculated to determine the best feature histogram parameter for LF prediction. Results: Mean T2-weighted signal ratio in the LF group was significantly higher than that in the LC group for all sub-ROIs (1.1±0.4 vs. 0.7±0.2, 1.2±0.4 vs. 0.8±0.2, 1.4±0.5 vs. 0.8±0.2, for V90, V80, and Vpeak, p=0.02, 0.02, and 0.002, respectively). The corresponding areas-under-curve (AUC) of ROC were 0.78, 0.80, and 0.87, p=0.02, 0.03, 0.004, respectively. No correlation was found between T2-weighted signal ratio in Vpeak and follow-up time (Pearson's ρ=0.15). Conclusion: Increased T2-weighted signal can be used to identify local failure while decreased signal indicates local control after spinal SBRT. By choosing the best histogram parameter (here the Vpeak), the AUC of the ROC can be substantially improved, which implies reliable prediction of LC and LF. These results are being further studied and validated with large multi-institutional data.« less

Adaptive prognosis of lithium-ion batteries based on the combination of particle filters and radial basis function neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sbarufatti, Claudio; Corbetta, Matteo; Giglio, Marco; Cadini, Francesco

2017-03-01

Lithium-Ion rechargeable batteries are widespread power sources with applications to consumer electronics, electrical vehicles, unmanned aerial and spatial vehicles, etc. The failure to supply the required power levels may lead to severe safety and economical consequences. Thus, in view of the implementation of adequate maintenance strategies, the development of diagnostic and prognostic tools for monitoring the state of health of the batteries and predicting their remaining useful life is becoming a crucial task. Here, we propose a method for predicting the end of discharge of Li-Ion batteries, which stems from the combination of particle filters with radial basis function neural networks. The major innovation lies in the fact that the radial basis function model is adaptively trained on-line, i.e., its parameters are identified in real time by the particle filter as new observations of the battery terminal voltage become available. By doing so, the prognostic algorithm achieves the flexibility needed to provide sound end-of-discharge time predictions as the charge-discharge cycles progress, even in presence of anomalous behaviors due to failures or unforeseen operating conditions. The method is demonstrated with reference to actual Li-Ion battery discharge data contained in the prognostics data repository of the NASA Ames Research Center database.

Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

PubMed

Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Hoshino, Junichi; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Takaichi, Kenmei; Kinowaki, Keiichi; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Mise, Koki; Toyama, Tadashi; Hara, Akinori; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Shimizu, Miho; Furuichi, Kengo; Wada, Takashi

2018-01-01

There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD. We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%). We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were not as good as reported, and combining the D-score with the KFRE did not significantly improve prediction of the risk of ESRD in advanced diabetic nephropathy. To improve prediction of renal prognosis for advanced diabetic nephropathy may require different approaches with combining clinical and pathological parameters that were not measured in the KFRE and the RPS DN Classification.

A two-parameter model to predict fatigue life of high-strength steels in a very high cycle fatigue regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Chengqi; Liu, Xiaolong; Hong, Youshi

2015-06-01

In this paper, ultrasonic (20 kHz) fatigue tests were performed on specimens of a high-strength steel in very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) regime. Experimental results showed that for most tested specimens failed in a VHCF regime, a fatigue crack originated from the interior of specimen with a fish-eye pattern, which contained a fine granular area (FGA) centered by an inclusion as the crack origin. Then, a two-parameter model is proposed to predict the fatigue life of high-strength steels with fish-eye mode failure in a VHCF regime, which takes into account the inclusion size and the FGA size. The model was verified by the data of present experiments and those in the literature. Furthermore, an analytic formula was obtained for estimating the equivalent crack growth rate within the FGA. The results also indicated that the stress intensity factor range at the front of the FGA varies within a small range, which is irrespective of stress amplitude and fatigue life.

Synergistic Effects of Temperature, Oxidation and Stress Level on Fatigue Damage Evolution and Lifetime Prediction of Cross-Ply SiC/CAS Ceramic-Matrix Composites Through Hysteresis-Based Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Longbiao

2017-12-01

The damage development and cyclic fatigue lifetime of cross-ply SiC/CAS ceramic-matrix composites have been investigated at different testing temperatures in air atmosphere. The relationships between the fatigue hysteresis-based damage parameters, i.e., fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy, fatigue hysteresis modulus and fatigue peak strain and the damage mechanisms of matrix multicracking, fiber/matrix interface debonding, interface sliding and fibers failure, have been established. With the increase in the cycle number, the evolution of the fatigue hysteresis modulus, fatigue peak strain and fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy depends upon the fatigue peak stress levels, interface and fibers oxidation and testing temperature. The fatigue life S-N curves of cross-ply SiC/CAS composite at room and elevated temperatures have been predicted, and the fatigue limit stresses at room temperature, 750 and 850 °C, are 50, 36 and 30% of the tensile strength, respectively.

Analyzing and Modelling the Corrosion Behavior of Ni/Al2O3, Ni/SiC, Ni/ZrO2 and Ni/Graphene Nanocomposite Coatings

PubMed Central

Saeed, Adil; Braun, Wolfgang; Bajwa, Rizwan; Rafique, Saqib

2017-01-01

A study has been presented on the effects of intrinsic mechanical parameters, such as surface stress, surface elastic modulus, surface porosity, permeability and grain size on the corrosion failure of nanocomposite coatings. A set of mechano-electrochemical equations was developed by combining the popular Butler–Volmer and Duhem expressions to analyze the direct influence of mechanical parameters on the electrochemical reactions in nanocomposite coatings. Nanocomposite coatings of Ni with Al2O3, SiC, ZrO2 and Graphene nanoparticles were studied as examples. The predictions showed that the corrosion rate of the nanocoatings increased with increasing grain size due to increase in surface stress, surface porosity and permeability of nanocoatings. A detailed experimental study was performed in which the nanocomposite coatings were subjected to an accelerated corrosion testing. The experimental results helped to develop and validate the equations by qualitative comparison between the experimental and predicted results showing good agreement between the two. PMID:29068395

Natriuretic peptides and their therapeutic potential in heart failure treatment: An updated review.

PubMed

Namdari, M; Eatemadi, A; Negahdari, B

2016-09-30

Brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), also known as a B-type natriuretic peptide, is one of the important biomarkers with a proven role in the diagnosis of congestive heart failure (CHF). Researchers from the different clinical field have researched into the performance features of BNP testing in the acute care set-up to assist and improve in diagnosing CHF and in predicting future morbidity and mortality rates. The potency of BNP has also been researched into in cases like myocardial ischemia and infarction, cor pulmonale, and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Based on their vaso-dilatory and diuretic properties and ability to inhibit renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system, natriuretic peptides are able to provide an efficient technique and mechanism of action in the pathophysiologic framework for CHF treatment and management. Recent clinical studies reported that ularitide, a synthetic form of urodilatin, secreted by kidney may be effective in managing and treatment of decompensated heart failure. It has also been reported that Nesiritide, a recombinant natriuretic peptide has been proven to improve dyspnea and hemodynamic parameters in heart failure patients. This review provides an update on natriuretic peptides and their therapeutic potential in CHF treatment.

A case study in nonconformance and performance trend analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maloy, Joseph E.; Newton, Coy P.

1990-01-01

As part of NASA's effort to develop an agency-wide approach to trend analysis, a pilot nonconformance and performance trending analysis study was conducted on the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU). The purpose of the study was to (1) demonstrate that nonconformance analysis can be used to identify repeating failures of a specific item (and the associated failure modes and causes) and (2) determine whether performance parameters could be analyzed and monitored to provide an indication of component or system degradation prior to failure. The nonconformance analysis of the APU did identify repeating component failures, which possibly could be reduced if key performance parameters were monitored and analyzed. The performance-trending analysis verified that the characteristics of hardware parameters can be effective in detecting degradation of hardware performance prior to failure.

Failure Predictions for VHTR Core Components using a Probabilistic Contiuum Damage Mechanics Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fok, Alex

2013-10-30

The proposed work addresses the key research need for the development of constitutive models and overall failure models for graphite and high temperature structural materials, with the long-term goal being to maximize the design life of the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP). To this end, the capability of a Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) model, which has been used successfully for modeling fracture of virgin graphite, will be extended as a predictive and design tool for the core components of the very high- temperature reactor (VHTR). Specifically, irradiation and environmental effects pertinent to the VHTR will be incorporated into the modelmore » to allow fracture of graphite and ceramic components under in-reactor conditions to be modeled explicitly using the finite element method. The model uses a combined stress-based and fracture mechanics-based failure criterion, so it can simulate both the initiation and propagation of cracks. Modern imaging techniques, such as x-ray computed tomography and digital image correlation, will be used during material testing to help define the baseline material damage parameters. Monte Carlo analysis will be performed to address inherent variations in material properties, the aim being to reduce the arbitrariness and uncertainties associated with the current statistical approach. The results can potentially contribute to the current development of American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) codes for the design and construction of VHTR core components.« less

Simulating Fatigue Crack Growth in Spiral Bevel Gears

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spievak, Lisa E.; Wawrzynek, Paul A.; Ingraffea, Anthony R.

2000-01-01

The majority of helicopter transmission systems utilize spiral bevel gears to convert the horizontal power from the engine into vertical power for the rotor. Due to the cyclical loading on a gear's tooth, fatigue crack propagation can occur. In rotorcraft applications, a crack's trajectory determines whether the gear failure will be benign or catastrophic for the aircraft. As a result, the capability to predict crack growth in gears is significant. A spiral bevel gear's complex shape requires a three dimensional model of the geometry and cracks. The boundary element method in conjunction with linear elastic fracture mechanics theories is used to predict arbitrarily shaped three dimensional fatigue crack trajectories in a spiral bevel pinion under moving load conditions. The predictions are validated by comparison to experimental results. The sensitivity of the predictions to variations in loading conditions and crack growth rate model parameters is explored. Critical areas that must be understood in greater detail prior to predicting more accurate crack trajectories and crack growth rates in three dimensions are identified.

Spinal epidural abscesses: risk factors, medical versus surgical management, a retrospective review of 128 cases.

PubMed

Patel, Amit R; Alton, Timothy B; Bransford, Richard J; Lee, Michael J; Bellabarba, Carlo B; Chapman, Jens R

2014-02-01

Spinal epidural abscess (SEA) is a rare, serious and increasingly frequent diagnosis. Ideal management (medical vs. surgical) remains controversial. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of risk factors, organisms, location and extent of SEA on neurologic outcome after medical management or surgery in combination with medical management. Retrospective electronic medical record (EMR) review. We included 128 consecutive, spontaneous SEA from a single tertiary medical center, from January 2005 to September 11. There were 79 male and 49 female with a mean age of 52.9 years (range, 22-83). Patient demographics, presenting complaints, radiographic features, pre/post-treatment neurologic status (ASIA motor score [MS] 0-100), treatment (medical vs. surgical) and clinical follow-up were recorded. Neurologic status was determined before treatment and at last available clinical encounter. Imaging studies reviewed location/extent of pathology. Inclusion criteria were a diagnosis of a bacterial SEA based on radiographs and/or intraoperative findings, age greater than 18 years, and adequate EMR. Exclusion criteria were postinterventional infections, Pott's disease, isolated discitis/osteomyelitis, treatment initiated at an outside facility, and imaging suggestive of a SEA but negative intraoperative findings/cultures. The mean follow-up was 241 days. The presenting chief complaint was site-specific pain (100%), subjective fevers (50%), and weakness (47%). In this cohort, 54.7% had lumbar, 39.1% thoracic, 35.9% cervical, and 23.4% sacral involvement spanning an average of 3.85 disc levels. There were 36% ventral, 41% dorsal, and 23% circumferential infections. Risk factors included a history of IV drug abuse (39.1%), diabetes mellitus (21.9%), and no risk factors (22.7%). Pathogens were methicillin-sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (40%) and methicillin-resistance S aureus (30%). Location, SEA extent, and pathogen did not impact MS recovery. Fifty-one patients were treated with antibiotics alone (group 1), 77 with surgery and antibiotics (group 2). Within group 1, 21 patients (41%) failed medical management (progressive MS loss or worsening pain) requiring delayed surgery (group 3). Irrespective of treatment, MS improved by 3.37 points. Thirty patients had successful medical management (MS: pretreatment, 96.5; post-treatment, 96.8). Twenty-one patients failed medical therapy (41%; MS: pretreatment, 99.86, decreasing to 76.2 [mean change, -23.67 points], postoperative improvement to 85.0; net deterioration, -14.86 points). This is significantly worse than the mean improvement of immediate surgery (group 2; MS: pretreatment, 80.32; post-treatment, 89.84; recovery, 9.52 points). Diabetes mellitus, C-reactive protein greater than 115, white blood count greater than 12.5, and positive blood cultures predict medical failure: None of four parameters, 8.3% failure; one parameter, 35.4% failure; two parameters, 40.2% failure; and three or more parameters, 76.9% failure. Early surgery improves neurologic outcomes compared with surgical treatment delayed by a trial of medical management. More than 41% of patients treated medically failed management and required surgical decompression. Diabetes, C-reactive protein greater than 115, white blood count greater than 12.5, and bacteremia predict failure of medical management. If a SEA is to be treated medically, great caution and vigilance must be maintained. Otherwise, early surgical decompression, irrigation, and debridement should be the mainstay of treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of AHEAD Score in an Asian Cohort of Acute Heart Failure With Either Preserved or Reduced Left Ventricular Systolic Function.

PubMed

Chen, Yu-Jen; Sung, Shih-Hsien; Cheng, Hao-Min; Huang, Wei-Ming; Wu, Chung-Li; Huang, Chi-Jung; Hsu, Pai-Feng; Yeh, Jong-Shiuan; Guo, Chao-Yu; Yu, Wen-Chung; Chen, Chen-Huan

2017-05-04

AHEAD (A: atrial fibrillation; H: hemoglobin; E: elderly; A: abnormal renal parameters; D: diabetes mellitus) score has been related to clinical outcomes of acute heart failure. However, the prognostic value of the AHEAD score in acute heart failure patients with either reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF and HFpEF) remain to be elucidated. The study population consisted of 2143 patients (age 77±12 years, 68% men, 38% HFrEF) hospitalized primarily for acute heart failure with a median follow-up of 23.75 months. The performance of the AHEAD score (atrial fibrillation, hemoglobin <13 mg/dL for men and 12 mg/dL for women, age >70 years, creatinine >130 μmol/L, and diabetes mellitus) was evaluated by Cox's regression analysis for predicting cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The mean AHEAD scores were 2.7±1.2 in the total study population, 2.6±1.3 in the HFrEF group, and 2.7±1.1 in the HFpEF group. After accounting for sex, sodium, uric acid, and medications, the AHEAD score remained significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio and 95% CI: 1.49, 1.38-1.60 and 1.48, 1.33-1.64), respectively. The associations of AHEAD score with mortality remained significant in the subgroups of HFrEF (1.63, 1.47-1.82) and HFpEF (1.34, 1.22-1.48). Moreover, when we calculated a new AHEAD-U score by considering uric acid (>8.6 mg/dL) in addition to the AHEAD score, the net reclassification was improved by 19.7% and 20.1% for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively. The AHEAD score was useful in predicting long-term mortality in the Asian acute heart failure cohort with either HFrEF or HFpEF. The new AHEAD-U score may further improve risk stratification. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Optimization of geothermal well trajectory in order to minimize borehole failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahrabou, A.; Valley, B.; Ladner, F.; Guinot, F.; Meier, P.

2017-12-01

In projects based on Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) principle, deep boreholes are drilled to low permeability rock masses. As part of the completion operations, the permeability of existing fractures in the rock mass is enhanced by injecting large volumes of water. These stimulation treatments aim at achieving enough water circulation for heat extraction at commercial rates which makes the stimulation operations critical to the project success. The accurate placement of the stimulation treatments requires well completion with effective zonal isolation, and wellbore stability is a prerequisite to all zonal isolation techniques, be it packer sealing or cement placement. In this project, a workflow allowing a fast decision-making process for selecting an optimal well trajectory for EGS projects is developed. In fact, the well is first drilled vertically then based on logging data which are costly (100 KCHF/day), the direction in which the strongly deviated borehole section will be drilled needs to be determined in order to optimize borehole stability and to intersect the highest number of fractures that are oriented favorably for stimulation. The workflow applies to crystalline rock and includes an uncertainty and risk assessment framework. An initial sensitivity study was performed to identify the most influential parameters on borehole stability. The main challenge in these analyses is that the strength and stress profiles are unknown independently. Calibration of a geomechanical model on the observed borehole failure has been performed using data from the Basel Geothermal well BS-1. In a first approximation, a purely elastic-static analytical solution in combination with a purely cohesive failure criterion were used as it provides the most consistent prediction across failure indicators. A systematic analysis of the uncertainty on all parameters was performed to assess the reliability of the optimal trajectory selection. To each drilling scenario, failure probability and the associated risks, are computed stochastically. In addition, model uncertainty is assessed by confronting various failure modelling approaches to the available failure data from the Basel Project. Together, these results form the basis of an integrated workflow optimizing geothermal (EGS) well trajectory.

A Predictive Framework for Thermomechanical Fatigue Life of High Silicon Molybdenum Ductile Cast Iron Based on Considerations of Strain Energy Dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avery, Katherine R.

Isothermal low cycle fatigue (LCF) and anisothermal thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) tests were conducted on a high silicon molybdenum (HiSiMo) cast iron for temperatures up to 1073K. LCF and out-of-phase (OP) TMF lives were significantly reduced when the temperature was near 673K due to an embrittlement phenomenon which decreases the ductility of HiSiMo at this temperature. In this case, intergranular fracture was predominant, and magnesium was observed at the fracture surface. When the thermal cycle did not include 673K, the failure mode was predominantly transgranular, and magnesium was not present on the fracture surface. The in-phase (IP) TMF lives were unaffected when the thermal cycle included 673K, and the predominant failure mode was found to be transgranular fracture, regardless of the temperature. No magnesium was present on the IP TMF fracture surfaces. Thus, the embrittlement phenomenon was found to contribute to fatigue damage only when the temperature was near 673K and a tensile stress was present. To account for the temperature- and stress-dependence of the embrittlement phenomenon on the TMF life of HiSiMo cast iron, an original model based on the cyclic inelastic energy dissipation is proposed which accounts for temperature-dependent differences in the rate of fatigue damage accumulation in tension and compression. The proposed model has few empirical parameters. Despite the simplicity of the model, the predicted fatigue life shows good agreement with more than 130 uniaxial low cycle and thermomechanical fatigue tests, cyclic creep tests, and tests conducted at slow strain rates and with hold times. The proposed model was implemented in a multiaxial formulation and applied to the fatigue life prediction of an exhaust manifold subjected to severe thermal cycles. The simulation results show good agreement with the failure locations and number of cycles to failure observed in a component-level experiment.

Gram-negative prosthetic joint infection: outcome of a debridement, antibiotics and implant retention approach. A large multicentre study.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Pardo, D; Pigrau, C; Lora-Tamayo, J; Soriano, A; del Toro, M D; Cobo, J; Palomino, J; Euba, G; Riera, M; Sánchez-Somolinos, M; Benito, N; Fernández-Sampedro, M; Sorli, L; Guio, L; Iribarren, J A; Baraia-Etxaburu, J M; Ramos, A; Bahamonde, A; Flores-Sánchez, X; Corona, P S; Ariza, J

2014-11-01

We aim to evaluate the epidemiology and outcome of gram-negative prosthetic joint infection (GN-PJI) treated with debridement, antibiotics and implant retention (DAIR), identify factors predictive of failure, and determine the impact of ciprofloxacin use on prognosis. We performed a retrospective, multicentre, observational study of GN-PJI diagnosed from 2003 through to 2010 in 16 Spanish hospitals. We define failure as persistence or reappearance of the inflammatory joint signs during follow-up, leading to unplanned surgery or repeat debridement>30 days from the index surgery related death, or suppressive antimicrobial therapy. Parameters predicting failure were analysed with a Cox regression model. A total of 242 patients (33% men; median age 76 years, interquartile range (IQR) 68-81) with 242 episodes of GN-PJI were studied. The implants included 150 (62%) hip, 85 (35%) knee, five (2%) shoulder and two (1%) elbow prostheses. There were 189 (78%) acute infections. Causative microorganisms were Enterobacteriaceae in 78%, Pseudomonas spp. in 20%, and other gram-negative bacilli in 2%. Overall, 19% of isolates were ciprofloxacin resistant. DAIR was used in 174 (72%) cases, with an overall success rate of 68%, which increased to 79% after a median of 25 months' follow-up in ciprofloxacin-susceptible GN-PJIs treated with ciprofloxacin. Ciprofloxacin treatment exhibited an independent protective effect (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.23; 95% CI, 0.13-0.40; p<0.001), whereas chronic renal impairment predicted failure (aHR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.14-5.77; p 0.0232). Our results confirm a 79% success rate in ciprofloxacin-susceptible GN-PJI treated with debridement, ciprofloxacin and implant retention. New therapeutic strategies are needed for ciprofloxacin-resistant PJI. © 2014 The Authors Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2014 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

On the use and the performance of software reliability growth models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keiller, Peter A.; Miller, Douglas R.

1991-01-01

We address the problem of predicting future failures for a piece of software. The number of failures occurring during a finite future time interval is predicted from the number failures observed during an initial period of usage by using software reliability growth models. Two different methods for using the models are considered: straightforward use of individual models, and dynamic selection among models based on goodness-of-fit and quality-of-prediction criteria. Performance is judged by the relative error of the predicted number of failures over future finite time intervals relative to the number of failures eventually observed during the intervals. Six of the former models and eight of the latter are evaluated, based on their performance on twenty data sets. Many open questions remain regarding the use and the performance of software reliability growth models.

Changes in fibrinolysis and severity of organ failure in sepsis: a prospective observational study using point-of-care test--ROTEM.

PubMed

Prakash, Shivesh; Verghese, Santosh; Roxby, David; Dixon, Dani; Bihari, Shailesh; Bersten, Andrew

2015-04-01

We hypothesized that the thromboelastometry (ROTEM; Pentapharm GmbH, Munich, Germany) fibrinolysis parameter "maximum lysis" (ML) would have an independent inverse association with the severity of organ failure in sepsis. Selected adult patients with sepsis (n = 77) were recruited within 24 hours of antibiotic commencement. Patients with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score higher than 1 (n = 57) were followed for 72 hours. Prothrombin fragments 1 + 2, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (aPAI-1), ROTEM, and routine coagulation tests were measured daily along with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores. The activity of functional aPAI-1 increased with increasing severity of organ failure (P = .01) and was higher as compared with healthy controls (95% confidence interval, -65.4 to -29.9; P < .001). There was a decreasing trend in ML with increased organ failure (P = .001); however, there was no trend in d-dimer. Among all tests, only the lower ML (ß = -0.38, P < .001) and higher international normalized ratio (INR; ß = 0.32, P = .002) values significantly contributed to greater severity of organ failure (R(2) = 0.35, F2,73 = 19.29, P < .001). Despite an increase in INR, the prothrombin fragment remained unchanged (P = .89). Strong correlations were observed between early (24 hours) increase in fibrinolysis and recovery of organ failures for 48 hours (ML: r = 0.679, P = .001; aPAI-1: r = 0.694, P < .001). Lower ML and higher INR values predicted greater severity of organ failure at presentation. Further studies are required, as ROTEM could aid selection of patients and guide interventions aimed at fibrinolysis in severe sepsis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Correlation of pretreatment clinical parameters and PSA nadir after high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) for localised prostate cancer.

PubMed

Ganzer, Roman; Bründl, Johannes; Koch, Daniel; Wieland, Wolf F; Burger, Maximilian; Blana, Andreas

2015-01-01

To determine which pretreatment clinical parameters were predictive of a low prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir following high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) treatment. Retrospective study of patients with clinically localised prostate cancer undergoing HIFU at a single centre between December 1997 and September 2009. Whole-gland treatment was applied. Patients also included if they had previously undergone transurethral resection of the prostate (TURP). TURP was also conducted simultaneously to HIFU. Biochemical failure based on Phoenix definition (PSA nadir + 2). Univariate and multivariate analysis of pretreatment clinical parameters conducted to assess those factors predictive of a PSA nadir ≤0.2 and >0.2 ng/ml. Mean (SD) follow-up was 6.2 (2.8) years; median (range) was 6.3 (1.1-12.2) years. Kaplan-Meier estimate of biochemical disease-free survival rate at 8 years was 83 and 48 % for patients achieving a PSA nadir of ≤0.2 and >0.2 ng/ml, respectively. Prostate volume and incidental finding of cancer were significant predictors of low PSA nadir (≤0.2 ng/ml). Prostate volume and incidental finding of cancer could be predictors for oncologic success of HIFU based on post-treatment PSA nadir.

Multiscale Analysis of Structurally-Graded Microstructures Using Molecular Dynamics, Discrete Dislocation Dynamics and Continuum Crystal Plasticity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saether, Erik; Hochhalter, Jacob D.; Glaessgen, Edward H.; Mishin, Yuri

2014-01-01

A multiscale modeling methodology is developed for structurally-graded material microstructures. Molecular dynamic (MD) simulations are performed at the nanoscale to determine fundamental failure mechanisms and quantify material constitutive parameters. These parameters are used to calibrate material processes at the mesoscale using discrete dislocation dynamics (DD). Different grain boundary interactions with dislocations are analyzed using DD to predict grain-size dependent stress-strain behavior. These relationships are mapped into crystal plasticity (CP) parameters to develop a computationally efficient finite element-based DD/CP model for continuum-level simulations and complete the multiscale analysis by predicting the behavior of macroscopic physical specimens. The present analysis is focused on simulating the behavior of a graded microstructure in which grain sizes are on the order of nanometers in the exterior region and transition to larger, multi-micron size in the interior domain. This microstructural configuration has been shown to offer improved mechanical properties over homogeneous coarse-grained materials by increasing yield stress while maintaining ductility. Various mesoscopic polycrystal models of structurally-graded microstructures are generated, analyzed and used as a benchmark for comparison between multiscale DD/CP model and DD predictions. A final series of simulations utilize the DD/CP analysis method exclusively to study macroscopic models that cannot be analyzed by MD or DD methods alone due to the model size.

A Unified Constitutive Model for Subglacial Till, Part II: Laboratory Tests, Disturbed State Modeling, and Validation for Two Subglacial Tills

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, C. S.; Sane, S. M.; Jenson, J. W.; Contractor, D. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Clark, P. U.

2006-12-01

This presentation, which is complementary to Part I (Jenson et al.), describes the application of the Disturbed State Concept (DSC) constitutive model to define the behavior of the deforming sediment (till) underlying glaciers and ice sheets. The DSC includes elastic, plastic, and creep strains, and microstructural changes leading to degradation, failure, and sometimes strengthening or healing. Here, we describe comprehensive laboratory experiments conducted on samples of two regionally significant tills deposited by the Laurentide Ice Sheet: the Tiskilwa Till and Sky Pilot Till. The tests are used to determine the parameters to calibrate the DSC model, which is validated with respect to the laboratory tests by comparing the predictions with test data used to find the parameters, and also comparing them with independent tests not used to find the parameters. Discussion of the results also includes comparison of the DSC model with the classical Mohr-Coulomb model, which has been commonly used for glacial tills. A numerical procedure based on finite element implementation of the DSC is used to simulate an idealized field problem, and its predictions are discussed. Based on these analyses, the unified DSC model is proposed to provide an improved model for subglacial tills compared to other models used commonly, and thus to provide the potential for improved predictions of ice sheet movements.

Visualising Three Dimensional Damage and Failure Envelopes: Implications for True Triaxial Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harland, S. R.; Browning, J.; Healy, D.; Meredith, P. G.; Mitchell, T. M.

2017-12-01

Ultimate failure in brittle rocks is commonly accepted to occur as a coalescence of micro-crack damage into a single failure plane. The geometry and evolution with stress of the cracks (damage) within the medium will play a role in dictating the geometry of the ultimate failure plane. Currently, the majority of experimental studies investigating damage evolution and rock failure use conventional triaxial stress states (σ1 > σ2 = σ3). Results from these tests can easily be represented on a Mohr-Coulomb plot (σn - τ), conveniently allowing the user to determine the geometry of the resultant failure plane. In reality however, stress in the subsurface is generally truly triaxial (σ1 > σ2 > σ3) and in this case, the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion is inadequate as it incorporates no dependence on the intermediate stress (σ2), which has been shown to play an important role in controlling failure. It has recently been shown that differential stress is the key driver in initiating crack growth, regardless of the mean stress. Polyaxial failure criteria that incorporate the effect of the intermediate stress do exist and include the Modified Lade, Modified Wiebols and Cook, and the Drucker-Prager criteria. However, unlike the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, these polyaxial criteria do not offer any prediction of, or insight into, the geometry of the resultant failure plane. An additional downfall of all of the common conventional and polyaxial failure criteria is that they fail to describe the geometry of the damage (i.e. pre-failure microcracking) envelope with progressive stress; it is commonly assumed that the damage envelope is parallel to the ultimate brittle failure envelope. Here we use previously published polyaxial failure data for the Shirahama sandstone and Westerley granite to illustrate that the commonly used Mohr-Coulomb and polyaxial failure criteria do not sufficiently describe or capture failure or damage envelopes under true triaxial stress states. We investigate if and how Mohr-Coulomb type constructions can provide geometrical solutions to truly-triaxial problems. We look to incorporate both the intermediate stress and the differential stress as the controlling parameters in failure and examine the geometry of damage envelopes using damage onset data.

Does working memory capacity predict cross-modally induced failures of awareness?

PubMed

Kreitz, Carina; Furley, Philip; Simons, Daniel J; Memmert, Daniel

2016-01-01

People often fail to notice unexpected stimuli when they are focusing attention on another task. Most studies of this phenomenon address visual failures induced by visual attention tasks (inattentional blindness). Yet, such failures also occur within audition (inattentional deafness), and people can even miss unexpected events in one sensory modality when focusing attention on tasks in another modality. Such cross-modal failures are revealing because they suggest the existence of a common, central resource limitation. And, such central limits might be predicted from individual differences in cognitive capacity. We replicated earlier evidence, establishing substantial rates of inattentional deafness during a visual task and inattentional blindness during an auditory task. However, neither individual working memory capacity nor the ability to perform the primary task predicted noticing in either modality. Thus, individual differences in cognitive capacity did not predict failures of awareness even though the failures presumably resulted from central resource limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

Predictive modeling of dynamic fracture growth in brittle materials with machine learning

DOE PAGES

Moore, Bryan A.; Rougier, Esteban; O’Malley, Daniel; ...

2018-02-22

We use simulation data from a high delity Finite-Discrete Element Model to build an e cient Machine Learning (ML) approach to predict fracture growth and coalescence. Our goal is for the ML approach to be used as an emulator in place of the computationally intensive high delity models in an uncertainty quanti cation framework where thousands of forward runs are required. The failure of materials with various fracture con gurations (size, orientation and the number of initial cracks) are explored and used as data to train our ML model. This novel approach has shown promise in predicting spatial (path tomore » failure) and temporal (time to failure) aspects of brittle material failure. Predictions of where dominant fracture paths formed within a material were ~85% accurate and the time of material failure deviated from the actual failure time by an average of ~16%. Additionally, the ML model achieves a reduction in computational cost by multiple orders of magnitude.« less

A Combined High and Low Cycle Fatigue Model for Life Prediction of Turbine Blades

PubMed Central

Yue, Peng; Yu, Zheng-Yong; Wang, Qingyuan

2017-01-01

Combined high and low cycle fatigue (CCF) generally induces the failure of aircraft gas turbine attachments. Based on the aero-engine load spectrum, accurate assessment of fatigue damage due to the interaction of high cycle fatigue (HCF) resulting from high frequency vibrations and low cycle fatigue (LCF) from ground-air-ground engine cycles is of critical importance for ensuring structural integrity of engine components, like turbine blades. In this paper, the influence of combined damage accumulation on the expected CCF life are investigated for turbine blades. The CCF behavior of a turbine blade is usually studied by testing with four load-controlled parameters, including high cycle stress amplitude and frequency, and low cycle stress amplitude and frequency. According to this, a new damage accumulation model is proposed based on Miner’s rule to consider the coupled damage due to HCF-LCF interaction by introducing the four load parameters. Five experimental datasets of turbine blade alloys and turbine blades were introduced for model validation and comparison between the proposed Miner, Manson-Halford, and Trufyakov-Kovalchuk models. Results show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions than others with lower mean and standard deviation values of model prediction errors. PMID:28773064

A Combined High and Low Cycle Fatigue Model for Life Prediction of Turbine Blades.

PubMed

Zhu, Shun-Peng; Yue, Peng; Yu, Zheng-Yong; Wang, Qingyuan

2017-06-26

Combined high and low cycle fatigue (CCF) generally induces the failure of aircraft gas turbine attachments. Based on the aero-engine load spectrum, accurate assessment of fatigue damage due to the interaction of high cycle fatigue (HCF) resulting from high frequency vibrations and low cycle fatigue (LCF) from ground-air-ground engine cycles is of critical importance for ensuring structural integrity of engine components, like turbine blades. In this paper, the influence of combined damage accumulation on the expected CCF life are investigated for turbine blades. The CCF behavior of a turbine blade is usually studied by testing with four load-controlled parameters, including high cycle stress amplitude and frequency, and low cycle stress amplitude and frequency. According to this, a new damage accumulation model is proposed based on Miner's rule to consider the coupled damage due to HCF-LCF interaction by introducing the four load parameters. Five experimental datasets of turbine blade alloys and turbine blades were introduced for model validation and comparison between the proposed Miner, Manson-Halford, and Trufyakov-Kovalchuk models. Results show that the proposed model provides more accurate predictions than others with lower mean and standard deviation values of model prediction errors.

Whirling and stability of flywheel systems, part I: Derivation of combined and lumped parameter models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanujam, G.; Bert, C. W.

1983-06-01

The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical foundation to predict many aspects of dynamic behavior of flywheel systems when spin-tested with a quill shaft support and driven by an air turbine. Theoretical analyses for the following are presented: (1) determination of natural frequencies (or for brevity critical speeds of various orders), (2) Routh-type stability analysis to determine the stability limits (i.e., the speed range within which small perturbations attenuate rather than cause catastrophic failure), and (3) forced whirling analysis to estimate the response of major components of the system to flywheel mass eccentricity and initial tilt. For the first and third kinds of analyses, two different mathematical models of the generic system are investigated. One is a seven-degree-of-freedom lumped parameter analysis, while the other is a combined distributed and lumped parameter analysis.

Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for Heart Failure Readmissions.

PubMed

Mortazavi, Bobak J; Downing, Nicholas S; Bucholz, Emily M; Dharmarajan, Kumar; Manhapra, Ajay; Li, Shu-Xia; Negahban, Sahand N; Krumholz, Harlan M

2016-11-01

The current ability to predict readmissions in patients with heart failure is modest at best. It is unclear whether machine learning techniques that address higher dimensional, nonlinear relationships among variables would enhance prediction. We sought to compare the effectiveness of several machine learning algorithms for predicting readmissions. Using data from the Telemonitoring to Improve Heart Failure Outcomes trial, we compared the effectiveness of random forests, boosting, random forests combined hierarchically with support vector machines or logistic regression (LR), and Poisson regression against traditional LR to predict 30- and 180-day all-cause readmissions and readmissions because of heart failure. We randomly selected 50% of patients for a derivation set, and a validation set comprised the remaining patients, validated using 100 bootstrapped iterations. We compared C statistics for discrimination and distributions of observed outcomes in risk deciles for predictive range. In 30-day all-cause readmission prediction, the best performing machine learning model, random forests, provided a 17.8% improvement over LR (mean C statistics, 0.628 and 0.533, respectively). For readmissions because of heart failure, boosting improved the C statistic by 24.9% over LR (mean C statistic 0.678 and 0.543, respectively). For 30-day all-cause readmission, the observed readmission rates in the lowest and highest deciles of predicted risk with random forests (7.8% and 26.2%, respectively) showed a much wider separation than LR (14.2% and 16.4%, respectively). Machine learning methods improved the prediction of readmission after hospitalization for heart failure compared with LR and provided the greatest predictive range in observed readmission rates. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Aeroelastic Flutter Behavior of a Cantilever and Elastically Mounted Plate within a Nozzle-Diffuser Geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosi, Luis Phillipe; Colonius, Tim; Lee, Hyeong Jae; Sherrit, Stewart; Jet Propulsion Laboratory Collaboration; California Institute of Technology Collaboration

2016-11-01

Aeroelastic flutter arises when the motion of a structure and its surrounding flowing fluid are coupled in a constructive manner, causing large amplitudes of vibration in the immersed solid. A cantilevered beam in axial flow within a nozzle-diffuser geometry exhibits interesting resonance behavior that presents good prospects for internal flow energy harvesting. Different modes can be excited as a function of throat velocity, nozzle geometry, fluid and cantilever material parameters. Similar behavior has been also observed in elastically mounted rigid plates, enabling new designs for such devices. This work explores the relationship between the aeroelastic flutter instability boundaries and relevant non-dimensional parameters via experiments, numerical, and stability analyses. Parameters explored consist of a non-dimensional stiffness, a non-dimensional mass, non-dimensional throat size, and Reynolds number. A map of the system response in this parameter space may serve as a guide to future work concerning possible electrical output and failure prediction in harvesting devices.

An investigation of gear mesh failure prediction techniques. M.S. Thesis - Cleveland State Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zakrajsek, James J.

1989-01-01

A study was performed in which several gear failure prediction methods were investigated and applied to experimental data from a gear fatigue test apparatus. The primary objective was to provide a baseline understanding of the prediction methods and to evaluate their diagnostic capabilities. The methods investigated use the signal average in both the time and frequency domain to detect gear failure. Data from eleven gear fatigue tests were recorded at periodic time intervals as the gears were run from initiation to failure. Four major failure modes, consisting of heavy wear, tooth breakage, single pits, and distributed pitting were observed among the failed gears. Results show that the prediction methods were able to detect only those gear failures which involved heavy wear or distributed pitting. None of the methods could predict fatigue cracks, which resulted in tooth breakage, or single pits. It is suspected that the fatigue cracks were not detected because of limitations in data acquisition rather than in methodology. Additionally, the frequency response between the gear shaft and the transducer was found to significantly affect the vibration signal. The specific frequencies affected were filtered out of the signal average prior to application of the methods.

Assessment of heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate to predict noninvasive ventilation failure in hypoxemic patients.

PubMed

Duan, Jun; Han, Xiaoli; Bai, Linfu; Zhou, Lintong; Huang, Shicong

2017-02-01

To develop and validate a scale using variables easily obtained at the bedside for prediction of failure of noninvasive ventilation (NIV) in hypoxemic patients. The test cohort comprised 449 patients with hypoxemia who were receiving NIV. This cohort was used to develop a scale that considers heart rate, acidosis, consciousness, oxygenation, and respiratory rate (referred to as the HACOR scale) to predict NIV failure, defined as need for intubation after NIV intervention. The highest possible score was 25 points. To validate the scale, a separate group of 358 hypoxemic patients were enrolled in the validation cohort. The failure rate of NIV was 47.8 and 39.4% in the test and validation cohorts, respectively. In the test cohort, patients with NIV failure had higher HACOR scores at initiation and after 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV than those with successful NIV. At 1 h of NIV the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88, showing good predictive power for NIV failure. Using 5 points as the cutoff value, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure were 72.6, 90.2, 87.2, 78.1, and 81.8%, respectively. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Moreover, the diagnostic accuracy for NIV failure exceeded 80% in subgroups classified by diagnosis, age, or disease severity and also at 1, 12, 24, and 48 h of NIV. Among patients with NIV failure with a HACOR score of >5 at 1 h of NIV, hospital mortality was lower in those who received intubation at ≤12 h of NIV than in those intubated later [58/88 (66%) vs. 138/175 (79%); p = 0.03). The HACOR scale variables are easily obtained at the bedside. The scale appears to be an effective way of predicting NIV failure in hypoxemic patients. Early intubation in high-risk patients may reduce hospital mortality.

A microstructure sensitive study of rolling contact fatigue in bearing steels: A numerical and experimental approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandkar, Anup Surendra

Bearings are an integral part of machine components that transmit rotary power such as cars, motors, engines etc. Safe bearing operation is essential to avoid serious failures and accidents, which necessitates their timely replacement. This calls for an accurate bearing life prediction methods. Based on the Lundberg-Palmgen (LP) model, current life models consistently under predict bearings lives. Improvement in life prediction requires understanding of the bearing failure mechanism i.e. Rolling Contact Fatigue (RCF). The goal of this research is to develop a mechanistic framework required for an improved bearing life prediction model. Such model should account for metal plasticity, influence of microstructural features and cyclically evolving stressstrain fields induced during RCF. To achieve this, elastic-plastic finite element (FE) study is undertaken to investigate the response of M50-NiL bearing steel during RCF. Specifically, a microstructure sensitive study of the influence of non-metallic inclusions on RCF response of bearings is presented. M50-NiL microstructure consists of carbides which are orders of magnitude smaller than bearing dimensions. To account for this size difference, a multi-scale FE modeling approach is employed. The FE results reveal that hard carbide particles act as local stress risers, alter surrounding stressstrain fields and cause micro-scale yielding of steel matrix. Moreover, they introduce a shear stress cycle with non-zero mean stress, which promotes micro-plastic strain accumulation via ratcheting mechanism. Localized ratcheting is primarily responsible for cyclic hardening within the RCF affected region. Such evolution of subsurface hardness can be used to quantify RCF induced damage. To investigate this further, cyclic hardening response of the RCF affected region is simulated. The results show good agreement with the experimental observations. The cyclic stress-strain fields obtained from these simulations and the knowledge of hardness evolution can prove useful for future improvements to life models. The material parameters required for FE simulations are not available for many bearing steels. A novel method is presented to estimate these parameters for M50-NiL using the experimental results. Based on logical assumptions, this method provides meaningful estimates of material parameters. Modeling techniques and conclusions drawn from this research are helpful for improvements in life models.

2D-speckle tracking right ventricular strain to assess right ventricular systolic function in systolic heart failure. Analysis of the right ventricular free and posterolateral walls.

PubMed

Mouton, Stéphanie; Ridon, Héléne; Fertin, Marie; Pentiah, Anju Duva; Goémine, Céline; Petyt, Grégory; Lamblin, Nicolas; Coisne, Augustin; Foucher-Hossein, Claude; Montaigne, David; de Groote, Pascal

2017-10-15

Right ventricular (RV) systolic function is a powerful prognostic factor in patients with systolic heart failure. The accurate estimation of RV function remains difficult. The aim of the study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of 2D-speckle tracking RV strain in patients with systolic heart failure, analyzing both free and posterolateral walls. Seventy-six patients with dilated cardiopathy (left ventricular end-diastolic volume≥75ml/m 2 ) and left ventricular ejection fraction≤45% had an analysis of the RV strain. Feasibility, reproducibility and diagnostic accuracy of RV strain were analyzed and compared to other echocardiographic parameters of RV function. RV dysfunction was defined as a RV ejection fraction≤40% measured by radionuclide angiography. RV strain feasibility was 93.9% for the free-wall and 79.8% for the posterolateral wall. RV strain reproducibility was good (intra-observer and inter-observer bias and limits of agreement of 0.16±1.2% [-2.2-2.5] and 0.84±2.4 [-5.5-3.8], respectively). Patients with left heart failure have a RV systolic dysfunction that can be unmasked by advanced echocardiographic imaging: mean RV strain was -21±5.7% in patients without RV dysfunction and -15.8±5.1% in patients with RV dysfunction (p=0.0001). Mean RV strain showed the highest diagnostic accuracy to predict depressed RVEF (area under the curve (AUC) 0.75) with moderate sensitivity (60.5%) but high specificity (87.5%) using a cutoff value of -16%. RV strain seems to be a promising and more efficient measure than previous RV echocardiographic parameters for the diagnosis of RV systolic dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pulmonary hypertension due to left heart disease: diagnostic and prognostic value of CT in chronic systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Colin, Geoffrey C; Gerber, Bernhard L; de Meester de Ravenstein, Christophe; Byl, David; Dietz, Anna; Kamga, Michele; Pasquet, Agnes; Vancraeynest, David; Vanoverschelde, Jean-Louis; D'Hondt, Anne-Marie; Ghaye, Benoit; Pouleur, Anne-Catherine

2018-05-14

To evaluate the ability of chest computed tomography (CT) to predict pulmonary hypertension (PH) and outcome in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). We reviewed 119 consecutive patients with HFrEF by CT, transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and right heart catheterization (RHC). CT-derived pulmonary artery (PA) diameter and PA to ascending aorta diameter ratio (PA:A ratio), left atrial, right atrial, right ventricular (RV) and left ventricular volumes were correlated with RHC mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) . Diagnostic accuracy to predict PH and ability to predict primary composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and HF events were evaluated. RV volume was significantly higher in 81 patients with PH compared to 38 patients without PH (133 ml/m 2 vs. 79 ml/m 2 , p < 0.001) and was moderately correlated with mPAP (r=0.55, p < 0.001). Also, RV volume had higher ability to predict PH (area under the curve: 0.88) than PA diameter (0.79), PA:A ratio (0.76) by CT and tricuspid regurgitation gradient (0.83) and RV basal diameter by TTE (0.84, all p < 0.001). During the follow-up period (median: 3.4 years), 51 patients (43%) had HF events or died. After correction for important clinical, TTE and RHC parameters, RV volume (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.71, 95% CI 1.31-2.23, p < 0.001) and PA diameter (HR: 1.61, 95% CI 1.18-2.22, p = 0.003) were independent predictors of the primary endpoint. In patients with HFrEF, measurement of RV volume and PA diameter on ungated CT are non-invasive markers of PH and may help to predict the patient outcome. • Right ventricular (RV) volume measured by chest CT has good ability to identify pulmonary hypertension (PH) in patients with chronic heart failure (HF) and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). • The accuracy of pulmonary artery (PA) diameter and PA to ascending aorta diameter ratio (PA:A ratio) to predict PH was similar to previous studies, however, with lower cut-offs (28.1 mm and 0.92, respectively). • Chest CT-derived PA diameter and RV volume independently predict all-cause mortality and HF events and improve outcome prediction in patients with advanced HFrEF.

Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler); Harris, Charles E. (Compiler); Housner, Jerrold M. (Compiler); Hopkins, Dale A. (Compiler)

1993-01-01

This conference publication contains the presentations and discussions from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Methods for Failure Analysis and Life Prediction held at NASA Langley Research Center 14-15 Oct. 1992. The presentations focused on damage failure and life predictions of polymer-matrix composite structures. They covered some of the research activities at NASA Langley, NASA Lewis, Southwest Research Institute, industry, and universities. Both airframes and propulsion systems were considered.

Investigation of NS3 Protease Resistance-Associated Variants and Phenotypes for the Prediction of Treatment Response to HCV Triple Therapy.

PubMed

Dietz, Julia; Rupp, Daniel; Susser, Simone; Vermehren, Johannes; Peiffer, Kai-Henrik; Filmann, Natalie; Bon, Dimitra; Kuntzen, Thomas; Mauss, Stefan; Grammatikos, Georgios; Perner, Dany; Berkowski, Caterina; Herrmann, Eva; Zeuzem, Stefan; Bartenschlager, Ralf; Sarrazin, Christoph

2016-01-01

Triple therapy of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with boceprevir (BOC) or telaprevir (TVR) leads to virologic failure in many patients which is often associated with the selection of resistance-associated variants (RAVs). These resistance profiles are of importance for the selection of potential rescue treatment options. In this study, we sequenced baseline NS3 RAVs population-based and investigated the sensitivity of NS3 phenotypes in an HCV replicon assay together with clinical factors for a prediction of treatment response in a cohort of 165 German and Swiss patients treated with a BOC or TVR-based triple therapy. Overall, the prevalence of baseline RAVs was low, although the frequency of RAVs was higher in patients with virologic failure compared to those who achieved a sustained virologic response (SVR) (7% versus 1%, P = 0.06). The occurrence of RAVs was associated with a resistant NS3 quasispecies phenotype (P<0.001), but the sensitivity of phenotypes was not associated with treatment outcome (P = 0.2). The majority of single viral and host predictors of SVR was only weakly associated with treatment response. In multivariate analyses, low AST levels, female sex and an IFNL4 CC genotype were independently associated with SVR. However, a combined analysis of negative predictors revealed a significantly lower overall number of negative predictors in patients with SVR in comparison to individuals with virologic failure (P<0.0001) and the presence of 2 or less negative predictors was indicative for SVR. These results demonstrate that most single baseline viral and host parameters have a weak influence on the response to triple therapy, whereas the overall number of negative predictors has a high predictive value for SVR.

Can Creatinine Height Index Predict Weaning and Survival Outcomes in Patients on Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation After Critical Illness?

PubMed

Datta, Debapriya; Foley, Raymond; Wu, Rong; Grady, James; Scalise, Paul

2018-02-01

Malnutrition is common in chronic critically ill patients on prolonged mechanical ventilation (PMV) and may affect weaning. The creatinine height index (CHI), which reflects lean muscle mass, is regarded as the most accurate indicator of malnutrition. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of CHI in comparison with other traditional nutritional indices on successful weaning and survival in patients on PMV after critical illness. Records of 167 patients on PMV following critical illness, admitted for weaning, were reviewed. Parameters studied included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), percentage ideal body weight (%IBW), total protein, albumin, prealbumin, hemoglobin (Hb), and cause of respiratory failure. Number successfully weaned and number discharged alive and time to wean and time to discharge alive were determined from records. The CHI was calculated from 24-hour urine creatinine using a standard formula. Unpaired 2-sample t test was performed to determine the association between the studied nutritional parameters and outcomes. Predictive value of studied parameters for successful weaning and survival was determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis to model dichotomous outcome of successful weaning and survival. Mean age was 68 ± 14 years, 49% were males, 64% were successfully weaned, and 65.8% survived. Total protein, Hb, and CHI had a significant impact on successful weaning. Weight, %IBW, BMI, and CHI had a significant effect on survival. Of all parameters, CHI was most strongly predictive of successful weaning and survival. The CHI is a strong predictor of successful weaning and survival in patients on PMV.

Performance factors in associative learning: assessment of the sometimes competing retrieval model.

PubMed

Witnauer, James E; Wojick, Brittany M; Polack, Cody W; Miller, Ralph R

2012-09-01

Previous simulations revealed that the sometimes competing retrieval model (SOCR; Stout & Miller, Psychological Review, 114, 759-783, 2007), which assumes local error reduction, can explain many cue interaction phenomena that elude traditional associative theories based on total error reduction. Here, we applied SOCR to a new set of Pavlovian phenomena. Simulations used a single set of fixed parameters to simulate each basic effect (e.g., blocking) and, for specific experiments using different procedures, used fitted parameters discovered through hill climbing. In simulation 1, SOCR was successfully applied to basic acquisition, including the overtraining effect, which is context dependent. In simulation 2, we applied SOCR to basic extinction and renewal. SOCR anticipated these effects with both fixed parameters and best-fitting parameters, although the renewal effects were weaker than those observed in some experiments. In simulation 3a, feature-negative training was simulated, including the often observed transition from second-order conditioning to conditioned inhibition. In simulation 3b, SOCR predicted the observation that conditioned inhibition after feature-negative and differential conditioning depends on intertrial interval. In simulation 3c, SOCR successfully predicted failure of conditioned inhibition to extinguish with presentations of the inhibitor alone under most circumstances. In simulation 4, cue competition, including blocking (4a), recovery from relative validity (4b), and unblocking (4c), was simulated. In simulation 5, SOCR correctly predicted that inhibitors gain more behavioral control than do excitors when they are trained in compound. Simulation 6 demonstrated that SOCR explains the slower acquisition observed following CS-weak shock pairings.

A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing injury.

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

A novel handheld device for use in remote patient monitoring of heart failure patients--design and preliminary validation on healthy subjects.

PubMed

Pollonini, Luca; Rajan, Nithin O; Xu, Shuai; Madala, Sridhar; Dacso, Clifford C

2012-04-01

Remote patient monitoring (RPM) holds great promise for reducing the burden of congestive heart failure (CHF). Improved sensor technology and effective predictive algorithms can anticipate sudden decompensation events. Enhanced telemonitoring systems would promote patient independence and facilitate communication between patients and their physicians. We report the development of a novel hand-held device, called Blue Box, capable of collecting and wirelessly transmitting key cardiac parameters derived from three integrated biosensors: 2 lead electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmography and bioelectrical impedance (bioimpedance). Blue Box measurements include time intervals between consecutive ECG R-waves (RR interval), time duration of the ECG complex formed by the Q, R and S waves (QRS duration), bioimpedance, heart rate and systolic time intervals. In this study, we recruited 24 healthy subjects to collect several parameters measured by Blue Box and assess their value in correlating with cardiac output measured with Echo-Doppler. Linear correlation between the heart rate measured with Blue Box and cardiac output from Echo-Doppler had a group average correlation coefficient of 0.80. We found that systolic time intervals did not improve the model significantly. However, STIs did inversely correlate with increasing workloads.

Evaluation of marginal failures of dental composite restorations by acoustic emission analysis.

PubMed

Gu, Ja-Uk; Choi, Nak-Sam

2013-01-01

In this study, a nondestructive method based on acoustic emission (AE) analysis was developed to evaluate the marginal failure states of dental composite restorations. Three types of ring-shaped substrates, which were modeled after a Class I cavity, were prepared from polymethyl methacrylate, stainless steel, and human molar teeth. A bonding agent and a composite resin were applied to the ring-shaped substrates and cured by light exposure. At each time-interval measurement, the tooth substrate presented a higher number of AE hits than polymethyl methacrylate and steel substrates. Marginal disintegration estimations derived from cumulative AE hits and cumulative AE energy parameters showed that a signification portion of marginal gap formation was already realized within 1 min at the initial light-curing stage. Estimation based on cumulative AE energy gave a higher level of marginal failure than that based on AE hits. It was concluded that the AE analysis method developed in this study was a viable approach in predicting the clinical survival of dental composite restorations efficiently within a short test period.

Failure mode prediction for composite structural insulated panels with MgO board facings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smakosz, Łukasz; Kreja, Ireneusz

2018-01-01

Sandwich panels are readily used in civil engineering due to their high strength to weight ratio and the ease and speed of assembly. The idea of a sandwich section is to combine thin and durable facings with a light-weight core and the choice of materials used allows obtaining the desired behaviour. Panels in consideration consist of MgO (magnesium oxide) board facings and expanded polystyrene core and are characterized by immunity to biological corrosion, a high thermal insulation and a relatively low impact on environment. Customizing the range of panels to meet market needs requires frequent size changes, leading to different failure modes, which are identified in a series of costly full-scale laboratory tests. A nonlinear numerical model was created with a use of a commercial ABAQUS code and a user-defined procedure, which is able to reproduce observed failure mechanisms; its parameters were established on the basis of small-scale tests and numerical experiments. The model was validated by a comparison with the results of the full-scale bending and compression tests. The results obtained were in satisfactory agreement with the test data.

Shear Behaviour and Acoustic Emission Characteristics of Bolted Rock Joints with Different Roughnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gang; Zhang, Yongzheng; Jiang, Yujing; Liu, Peixun; Guo, Yanshuang; Liu, Jiankang; Ma, Ming; Wang, Ke; Wang, Shugang

2018-06-01

To study shear failure, acoustic emission counts and characteristics of bolted jointed rock-like specimens are evaluated under compressive shear loading. Model joint surfaces with different roughnesses are made of rock-like material (i.e. cement). The jointed rock masses are anchored with bolts with different elongation rates. The characteristics of the shear mechanical properties, the failure mechanism, and the acoustic emission parameters of the anchored joints are studied under different surface roughnesses and anchorage conditions. The shear strength and residual strength increase with the roughness of the anchored joint surface. With an increase in bolt elongation, the shear strength of the anchored joint surface gradually decreases. When the anchored structural plane is sheared, the ideal cumulative impact curve can be divided into four stages: initial emission, critical instability, cumulative energy, and failure. With an increase in the roughness of the anchored joint surface, the peak energy rate and the cumulative number of events will also increase during macro-scale shear failure. With an increase in the bolt elongation, the energy rate and the event number increase during the shearing process. Furthermore, the peak energy rate, peak number of events and cumulative energy will all increase with the bolt elongation. The results of this study can provide guidance for the use of the acoustic emission technique in monitoring and predicting the static shear failure of anchored rock masses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Puskar, Joseph David; Quintana, Michael A.; Sorensen, Neil Robert

A program is underway at Sandia National Laboratories to predict long-term reliability of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The vehicle for the reliability predictions is a Reliability Block Diagram (RBD), which models system behavior. Because this model is based mainly on field failure and repair times, it can be used to predict current reliability, but it cannot currently be used to accurately predict lifetime. In order to be truly predictive, physics-informed degradation processes and failure mechanisms need to be included in the model. This paper describes accelerated life testing of metal foil tapes used in thin-film PV modules, and how tape jointmore » degradation, a possible failure mode, can be incorporated into the model.« less

Design of Critical Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Zaretsky, Erwin V.

2001-01-01

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.

Hydromechanical behavior of Estaillades carbonate : directional permeability, stress-path and microstructural heterogeneity effects, yield and failure envelopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dautriat, J.; Dimanov, A.; Gland, N.; Raphanel, J.

2009-04-01

The influence of stress paths representative of reservoir conditions on the mechanical behavior and the coupled permeability evolutions of a carbonate has been investigated. In order to predict the permeability evolutions under triaxial loading, we have developed a triaxial cell designed to allow the measurements of the permeability in three orthogonal directions, along and transverse to the maximum principal stress direction. A set of core specimens are mechanically loaded following different stress paths characterized by a constant ratio K between horizontal and vertical stress. Our experimental set-up allows the monitoring of the petrophysical and geomechanical parameters during loading, before and post sample damage. The tested rock is an analog reservoir carbonate, the Estaillades Limestone, characterized macroscopically by a porosity around 29% and a moderate permeability around 150mD. From our experimental results, the failure envelope of this carbonate is determined and the evolutions of the directional permeability are examined in the (p',q) diagram. According to the followed stress path, permeability reductions can be limited or drastic. In addition, we have performed microstructural analyses on deformed samples and in-situ observations during loading inside a SEM in order to identify the micromechanisms responsible for the evolutions of porosity and permeability. For instance, we show the importance of local heterogeneities on initiation of damage and of pore collapse. In the near-elastic domain, brittle damage induces limited directional permeability modifications; whereas, at higher stress, depending on the value of K, shear induced dilation or shear induced compaction mechanisms are activated. The highest permeability drop occurred for the hydrostatic compression (K=1), in the compaction regime, characterized by pore collapse mechanisms affecting preferentially the macroporosity. A failure model is proposed and the failure envelope is determined in the (p',q) plane. A new expression of the failure envelope is also discussed which includes a dependency of the deviatoric stress with the stress-path parameter.

Parameters Influencing Tracheostomy Decannulation in Patients Undergoing Rehabilitation after severe Acquired Brain Injury (sABI).

PubMed

Perin, Cecilia; Meroni, Roberto; Rega, Vincenzo; Braghetto, Giacomo; Cerri, Cesare Giuseppe

2017-10-01

Introduction  Tracheostomy weaning in patients who suffered a severe acquired brain injury is often a challenge and decannulation failures are not uncommon. Objective  Our study objective is to describe the decannulation failure rate in patients undergoing rehabilitation following a severe acquired brain injury (sABI); to describe the factors associated with a successful tube weaning. Methods  We conduct a retrospective analysis of charts, consecutively retrieved considering a 3-year window. Variables analyzed were: age, sex, body mass index (BMI), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), cause of hospitalization (stroke, trauma, cardiac arrest), date of the pathological event, gap between the index event and the first day of hospitalization, duration of Neurorehabilitation Ward hospitalization, comorbidities, chest morphological alteration, kind of tracheostomy tube used (overall dimension, cap, fenestration), SpO2, presentation and quantification of pulmonary secretion, maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP) and maximal expiratory pressure (MEP), respiratory frequency and pattern, cardiac frequency, presence of spontaneous cough, cough strength, and blood gas analysis. Results  We analyzed 45 tracheostomised sABI patients following stroke, trauma, or cardiac arrest. The weaning success percentage was higher in Head Trauma patients and in patients presenting positive spontaneous cough. Failures seem to be associated with presence of secretions and anoxic brain damage. GCS seemed not related to the decannulation outcome. Conclusions  Parameters that could be used as positive predictors of weaning are: mean expiratory pressure, presence of spontaneous cough, and cough strength. Provoked cough and GCS were not predictive of weaning success.

Blood pressure dynamics during exercise rehabilitation in heart failure patients.

PubMed

Hecht, Idan; Arad, Michael; Freimark, Dov; Klempfner, Robert

2017-05-01

Background Patients suffering from heart failure (HF) may demonstrate an abnormal blood pressure response to exercise (ABPRE), which may revert to a normal one following medical treatment. It is assumed that this change correlates positively with prognosis and functional aspects. The aim of this study was to characterize patients with ABPRE and assess ABPRE normalization and the correlation with clinical and functional outcomes. Methods In the study, 651 patients with HF who underwent cardiac rehabilitation (CR) were examined. Patients who presented an ABPRE during stress testing were identified and divided into those who corrected their initial ABPRE following CR and those who did not. Results Pre-rehabilitation ABPRE was present in 27% of patients, 68% of whom normalized their ABPRE following CR. Two parameters were independently predictive of failure to normalize the blood pressure response: female gender (odds ratio (OR) 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-9.0) and decreased systolic function (OR 3.2; 95% CI 1.0-9.4). Patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy demonstrated higher rates of ABPRE normalization than patients with other causes of HF (93% vs. 62%, respectively, P = 0.03). The research population exhibited an average improvement in exercise capacity (4.7 to 6.4 metabolic equivalents (METS), P < .001), ejection fraction (35.4% to 37.7%, P < .001) and percentage of patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class 3-4 (50% to 43.4%, P = .123). The group who normalized their ABPRE exhibited greater improvement. Conclusions Amongst a population of patients suffering from HF, an ABPRE was normalized following CR in two thirds of patients. Female gender and a reduced systolic function independently predicted the failure to correct the ABPRE, while patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy demonstrated exceptionally high rates of normalization.

Continuum Damage Mechanics Models for the Analysis of Progressive Failure in Open-Hole Tension Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Song, Kyonchan; Li, Yingyong; Rose, Cheryl A.

2011-01-01

The performance of a state-of-the-art continuum damage mechanics model for interlaminar damage, coupled with a cohesive zone model for delamination is examined for failure prediction of quasi-isotropic open-hole tension laminates. Limitations of continuum representations of intra-ply damage and the effect of mesh orientation on the analysis predictions are discussed. It is shown that accurate prediction of matrix crack paths and stress redistribution after cracking requires a mesh aligned with the fiber orientation. Based on these results, an aligned mesh is proposed for analysis of the open-hole tension specimens consisting of different meshes within the individual plies, such that the element edges are aligned with the ply fiber direction. The modeling approach is assessed by comparison of analysis predictions to experimental data for specimen configurations in which failure is dominated by complex interactions between matrix cracks and delaminations. It is shown that the different failure mechanisms observed in the tests are well predicted. In addition, the modeling approach is demonstrated to predict proper trends in the effect of scaling on strength and failure mechanisms of quasi-isotropic open-hole tension laminates.

A Progressive Damage Methodology for Residual Strength Predictions of Center-Crack Tension Composite Panels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coats, Timothy William

1996-01-01

An investigation of translaminate fracture and a progressive damage methodology was conducted to evaluate and develop a residual strength prediction capability for laminated composites with through penetration notches. This is relevant to the damage tolerance of an aircraft fuselage that might suffer an in-flight accident such as an uncontained engine failure. An experimental characterization of several composite materials systems revealed an R-curve type of behavior. Fractographic examinations led to the postulate that this crack growth resistance could be due to fiber bridging, defined here as fractured fibers of one ply bridged by intact fibers of an adjacent ply. The progressive damage methodology is currently capable of predicting the initiation and growth of matrix cracks and fiber fracture. Using two difference fiber failure criteria, residual strength was predicted for different size panel widths and notch lengths. A ply discount fiber failure criterion yielded extremely conservative results while an elastic-perfectly plastic fiber failure criterion showed that the fiber bridging concept is valid for predicting residual strength for tensile dominated failure loads. Furthermore, the R-curves predicted by the model using the elastic-perfectly plastic fiber criterion compared very well with the experimental R-curves.

Factors Influencing Progressive Failure Analysis Predictions for Laminated Composite Structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knight, Norman F., Jr.

2008-01-01

Progressive failure material modeling methods used for structural analysis including failure initiation and material degradation are presented. Different failure initiation criteria and material degradation models are described that define progressive failure formulations. These progressive failure formulations are implemented in a user-defined material model for use with a nonlinear finite element analysis tool. The failure initiation criteria include the maximum stress criteria, maximum strain criteria, the Tsai-Wu failure polynomial, and the Hashin criteria. The material degradation model is based on the ply-discounting approach where the local material constitutive coefficients are degraded. Applications and extensions of the progressive failure analysis material model address two-dimensional plate and shell finite elements and three-dimensional solid finite elements. Implementation details are described in the present paper. Parametric studies for laminated composite structures are discussed to illustrate the features of the progressive failure modeling methods that have been implemented and to demonstrate their influence on progressive failure analysis predictions.

Transvaginal ultrasonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women.

PubMed

Park, Kyo Hoon

2007-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of transvaginal sonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women. One hundred and sixty-one women scheduled for labor induction underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and digital cervical examinations. Logistic regression demonstrated that cervical length and gestational age at induction, but not the Bishop score, significantly and independently predicted failed labor induction. According to the receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, the best cut-off value of cervical length for predicting failed labor induction was 28 mm, with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 60%. In terms of the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress as the outcome variable, logistic regression indicated that maternal height and birth weight, but not cervical length or Bishop score, were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of cesarean delivery for failure to progress. Transvaginal sonographic measurements of cervical length thus independently predicted failed labor induction in nulliparous women. However, the relatively poor predictive performance of this test undermines its clinical usefulness as a predictor of failed labor induction. Moreover, cervical length appears to have a poor predictive value for the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress.

Assessing performance and validating finite element simulations using probabilistic knowledge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dolin, Ronald M.; Rodriguez, E. A.

Two probabilistic approaches for assessing performance are presented. The first approach assesses probability of failure by simultaneously modeling all likely events. The probability each event causes failure along with the event's likelihood of occurrence contribute to the overall probability of failure. The second assessment method is based on stochastic sampling using an influence diagram. Latin-hypercube sampling is used to stochastically assess events. The overall probability of failure is taken as the maximum probability of failure of all the events. The Likelihood of Occurrence simulation suggests failure does not occur while the Stochastic Sampling approach predicts failure. The Likelihood of Occurrencemore » results are used to validate finite element predictions.« less

Large eddy simulation of fine water sprays: comparative analysis of two models and computer codes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsoy, A. S.; Snegirev, A. Yu.

2015-09-01

The model and the computer code FDS, albeit widely used in engineering practice to predict fire development, is not sufficiently validated for fire suppression by fine water sprays. In this work, the effect of numerical resolution of the large scale turbulent pulsations on the accuracy of predicted time-averaged spray parameters is evaluated. Comparison of the simulation results obtained with the two versions of the model and code, as well as that of the predicted and measured radial distributions of the liquid flow rate revealed the need to apply monotonic and yet sufficiently accurate discrete approximations of the convective terms. Failure to do so delays jet break-up, otherwise induced by large turbulent eddies, thereby excessively focuses the predicted flow around its axis. The effect of the pressure drop in the spray nozzle is also examined, and its increase has shown to cause only weak increase of the evaporated fraction and vapor concentration despite the significant increase of flow velocity.

Comparison of Damage Path Predictions for Composite Laminates by Explicit and Standard Finite Element Analysis Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogert, Philip B.; Satyanarayana, Arunkumar; Chunchu, Prasad B.

2006-01-01

Splitting, ultimate failure load and the damage path in center notched composite specimens subjected to in-plane tension loading are predicted using progressive failure analysis methodology. A 2-D Hashin-Rotem failure criterion is used in determining intra-laminar fiber and matrix failures. This progressive failure methodology has been implemented in the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard finite element codes through user written subroutines "VUMAT" and "USDFLD" respectively. A 2-D finite element model is used for predicting the intra-laminar damages. Analysis results obtained from the Abaqus/Explicit and Abaqus/Standard code show good agreement with experimental results. The importance of modeling delamination in progressive failure analysis methodology is recognized for future studies. The use of an explicit integration dynamics code for simple specimen geometry and static loading establishes a foundation for future analyses where complex loading and nonlinear dynamic interactions of damage and structure will necessitate it.

Narrowing the scope of failure prediction using targeted fault load injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, Paul L.; Peterson, Gilbert L.; Lin, Alan C.; Mendenhall, Michael J.; Sellers, Andrew J.

2018-05-01

As society becomes more dependent upon computer systems to perform increasingly critical tasks, ensuring that those systems do not fail becomes increasingly important. Many organizations depend heavily on desktop computers for day-to-day operations. Unfortunately, the software that runs on these computers is written by humans and, as such, is still subject to human error and consequent failure. A natural solution is to use statistical machine learning to predict failure. However, since failure is still a relatively rare event, obtaining labelled training data to train these models is not a trivial task. This work presents new simulated fault-inducing loads that extend the focus of traditional fault injection techniques to predict failure in the Microsoft enterprise authentication service and Apache web server. These new fault loads were successful in creating failure conditions that were identifiable using statistical learning methods, with fewer irrelevant faults being created.

Influence of Different Yield Loci on Failure Prediction with Damage Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heibel, S.; Nester, W.; Clausmeyer, T.; Tekkaya, A. E.

2017-09-01

Advanced high strength steels are widely used in the automotive industry to simultaneously improve crash performance and reduce the car body weight. A drawback of these multiphase steels is their sensitivity to damage effects and thus the reduction of ductility. For that reason the Forming Limit Curve is only partially suitable for this class of steels. An improvement in failure prediction can be obtained by using damage mechanics. The objective of this paper is to comparatively review the phenomenological damage model GISSMO and the Enhanced Lemaitre Damage Model. GISSMO is combined with three different yield loci, namely von Mises, Hill48 and Barlat2000 to investigate the influence of the choice of the plasticity description on damage modelling. The Enhanced Lemaitre Model is used with Hill48. An inverse parameter identification strategy for a DP1000 based on stress-strain curves and optical strain measurements of shear, uniaxial, notch and (equi-)biaxial tension tests is applied to calibrate the models. A strong dependency of fracture strains on the choice of yield locus can be observed. The identified models are validated on a cross-die cup showing ductile fracture with slight necking.

The Renal Arterial Resistance Index Predicts Worsening Renal Function in Chronic Heart Failure Patients

PubMed Central

Iacoviello, Massimo; Monitillo, Francesco; Leone, Marta; Citarelli, Gaetano; Doronzo, Annalisa; Antoncecchi, Valeria; Puzzovivo, Agata; Rizzo, Caterina; Lattarulo, Maria Silvia; Massari, Francesco; Caldarola, Pasquale; Ciccone, Marco Matteo

2016-01-01

Background/Aim The renal arterial resistance index (RRI) is a Doppler measure, which reflects abnormalities in the renal blood flow. The aim of this study was to verify the value of RRI as a predictor of worsening renal function (WRF) in a group of chronic heart failure (CHF) outpatients. Methods We enrolled 266 patients in stable clinical conditions and on conventional therapy. Peak systolic velocity and end diastolic velocity of a segmental renal artery were obtained by pulsed Doppler flow, and RRI was calculated. Creatinine serum levels were evaluated at baseline and at 1 year, and the changes were used to assess WRF occurrence. Results During follow-up, 34 (13%) patients showed WRF. RRI was associated with WRF at univariate (OR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07–1.20) as well as at a forward stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis (OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.03–1.16; p = 0.005) including the other univariate predictors. Conclusions Quantification of arterial renal perfusion provides a new parameter that independently predicts the WRF in CHF outpatients. Its possible role in current clinical practice to better define the risk of cardiorenal syndrome progression is strengthened. PMID:27994601

C-Sphere Strength-Size Scaling in a Bearing-Grade Silicon Nitride

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wereszczak, Andrew A; Jadaan, Osama M.; Kirkland, Timothy Philip

2008-01-01

A C-sphere specimen geometry was used to determine the failure strength distributions of a commercially available bearing-grade silicon nitride (Si3N4) having ball diameters of 12.7 and 25.4 mm. Strengths for both diameters were determined using the combination of failure load, C sphere geometry, and finite element analysis and fitted using two-parameter Weibull distributions. Effective areas of both diameters were estimated as a function of Weibull modulus and used to explore whether the strength distributions predictably strength-scaled between each size. They did not. That statistical observation suggested that the same flaw type did not limit the strength of both ball diametersmore » indicating a lack of material homogeneity between the two sizes. Optical fractography confirmed that. It showed there were two distinct strength-limiting flaw types in both ball diameters, that one flaw type was always associated with lower strength specimens, and that significantly higher fraction of the 24.5-mm-diameter c-sphere specimens failed from it. Predictable strength-size-scaling would therefore not result as a consequence of this because these flaw types were not homogenously distributed and sampled in both c-sphere geometries.« less

Electrocardiographic parameters predict super-response in cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Cvijić, Marta; Žižek, David; Antolič, Bor; Zupan, Igor

2015-01-01

Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an established treatment for heart failure patients. However, determinants of response to CRT remain elusive. The aim of the study was to assess the value of ECG parameters to predict super-response in CRT patients. A 12-lead surface ECG was recorded at baseline and immediately after CRT-device implantation. Baseline ECG parameters (QRS duration, bundle branch morphology, axis, PR interval, QTc, intrinsicoid deflection) and post-implant paced QRS duration were analyzed; relative change in QRS duration was calculated. Decrease of left ventricular end-systolic volume ≥30% after 12 months was classified as super-response. In group of 101 patients, 32 (31.7%) were super-responders. There were no significant differences in baseline ECG parameters between super-responders and other patients. Post-implant QRS duration was shorter in super-responders (148 ± 22 ms vs. 162 ± 28 ms; P=0.010). Only in super-responders was significant QRS reduction observed after implantation. Relative QRS shortening was higher in super-responders (12.1% (6.8 to 22.2) vs. 1.7% (-11.9 to 11.8); P=0.005). In a multivariable analysis post-implant QRS duration and relative QRS shortening remained independent predictor of super-response. Absolute post-implant QRS duration and relative QRS shortening are the only ECG parameters associated with super-response in CRT. Further prospective studies on larger population are warranted to determine our findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniel, Isaac M.

To facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting of new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of structural laminates based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new failure theory, the Northwestern (NU-Daniel) theory, has been proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is primarily applicable to matrix-dominated interfiber/interlaminar failures. It is based on micromechanical failure mechanisms but is expressed in terms of easily measuredmore » macroscopic lamina stiffness and strength properties. It is presented in the form of a master failure envelope incorporating strain rate effects. The theory was further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive failure of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without very extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Significance of change in serum bilirubin in predicting left ventricular reverse remodeling and outcomes in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Hosoda, Junya; Ishikawa, Toshiyuki; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Iguchi, Kohei; Matsushita, Hirooki; Ogino, Yutaka; Taguchi, Yuka; Sugano, Teruyasu; Ishigami, Tomoaki; Kimura, Kazuo; Tamura, Kouichi

2017-11-01

Research on the correlation of serum bilirubin level with cardiac function as well as outcomes in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between change in serum bilirubin level and left ventricular reverse remodeling, and also to clarify the impact of bilirubin change on clinical outcomes in CRT patients. We evaluated 105 consecutive patients who underwent CRT. Patients who had no serum total-bilirubin data at both baseline and 3-9 months' follow-up or had died less than 3 months after CRT implantation were excluded. Accordingly, a total of 69 patients were included in the present analysis. The patients were divided into two groups: decreased bilirubin group (serum total-bilirubin level at follow-up≤that at baseline; n=48) and increased bilirubin group (serum total-bilirubin level at follow-up>that at baseline; n=21). Mean follow-up period was 39.3 months. In the decreased bilirubin group, mean left ventricular end-systolic diameter decreased from 54.5mm to 50.2mm (p=0.001) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction increased significantly from 29.8% to 37.0% (p=0.001). In the increased bilirubin group, there was no significant change in echocardiographic parameters from baseline to follow-up. In Kaplan-Meyer analysis, cardiac mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization in the increased bilirubin group was significantly higher than that in the decreased bilirubin group (log-rank p=0.018). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that increased bilirubin was an independent predictor of cardiac mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization (OR=2.66, p=0.023). The change in serum bilirubin is useful for assessment of left ventricular reverse remodeling and prediction of outcomes in heart failure patients with CRT. Copyright © 2017 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does the Hounsfield unit value determined by computed tomography predict the outcome of percutaneous nephrolithotomy?

PubMed

Gücük, Adnan; Uyetürk, Uğur; Oztürk, Ufuk; Kemahli, Eray; Yildiz, Mevlüt; Metin, Ahmet

2012-07-01

We aimed to evaluate whether the Hounsfield unit (HU) value predicts outcome in percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). One hundred and seventy-nine patients who had undergone PCNL in our clinics in the last 4 years were included. Demographic and clinical data of the patients and complications, if any, were recorded. The mean age of the patients was 45.3 ± 14.3 years (range 5-82 y), and 111 of them were males (62%). The mean stone size and HU values were found to be 693.1 ± 628.0 (95-4200) mm(2) and 706.3 ± 245.0 (214-1325), respectively. In logistic regression analysis, the size of the stone, the opacity of the stone, and the HU values were found to be independent predictors of the failure of the procedure (P<0.05). A cutoff value of 677.5 was used for the HU in the receiver operating characteristics analysis. Having a HU value under the cutoff value increased the likelihood of procedure failure by 2.65 times, whereas stones residing in the staghorn localization increased failure by 5.68. It was also observed that if the stone's size was 485 mm(2) or more, the chance of failure increased by 1.9, whereas when the stone was nonopaque, failure increased by 6.04 times (P<0.05). There was a positive correlation between hematocrit decrease and a decrease in HU values (P<0.05), but no correlation was observed between the HU values and duration of surgery or fluoroscopy (P>0.05). In addition to the size and location of the stones, the HU value determined in the unenhanced CT scan may be one of the parameters affecting PCNL outcomes. PCNL is a more efficient method in stones with higher HU values. Therefore, the HU values may be a useful tool for the selection of the treatment modality in patients with renal stones.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Yeon Soo; Jeong, G. Y.; Sohn, D. -S.

U-Mo/Al dispersion fuel is currently under development in the DOE’s Material Management and Minimization program to convert HEU-fueled research reactors to LEU-fueled reactors. In some demanding conditions in high-power and high-performance reactors, large pores form in the interaction layers between the U-Mo fuel particles and the Al matrix, which pose a potential to cause fuel failure. In this study, comprehension of the formation and growth of these pores was explored. As a product, a model to predict pore growth and porosity increase was developed. Well-characterized in-pile data from reduced-size plates were used to fit the model parameters. A data setmore » of full-sized plates, independent and distinctively different from those used to fit the model parameters, was used to examine the accuracy of the model.« less

Methods And Systms For Analyzing The Degradation And Failure Of Mechanical Systems

DOEpatents

Jarrell, Donald B.; Sisk, Daniel R.; Hatley, Darrel D.; Kirihara, Leslie J.; Peters, Timothy J.

2005-02-08

Methods and systems for identifying, understanding, and predicting the degradation and failure of mechanical systems are disclosed. The methods include measuring and quantifying stressors that are responsible for the activation of degradation mechanisms in the machine component of interest. The intensity of the stressor may be correlated with the rate of physical degradation according to some determinable function such that a derivative relationship exists between the machine performance, degradation, and the underlying stressor. The derivative relationship may be used to make diagnostic and prognostic calculations concerning the performance and projected life of the machine. These calculations may be performed in real time to allow the machine operator to quickly adjust the operational parameters of the machinery in order to help minimize or eliminate the effects of the degradation mechanism, thereby prolonging the life of the machine. Various systems implementing the methods are also disclosed.

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Predicting the Reliability of Brittle Material Structures Subjected to Transient Proof Test and Service Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Baker, Eric H.

Brittle materials today are being used, or considered, for a wide variety of high tech applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts, thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and MEMS. Designing brittle material components to sustain repeated load without fracturing while using the minimum amount of material requires the use of a probabilistic design methodology. The NASA CARES/Life 1 (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structure/Life) code provides a general-purpose analysis tool that predicts the probability of failure of a ceramic component as a function of its time in service. This capability includes predicting the time-dependent failure probability of ceramic components against catastrophic rupture when subjected to transient thermomechanical loads (including cyclic loads). The developed methodology allows for changes in material response that can occur with temperature or time (i.e. changing fatigue and Weibull parameters with temperature or time). For this article an overview of the transient reliability methodology and how this methodology is extended to account for proof testing is described. The CARES/Life code has been modified to have the ability to interface with commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) codes executed for transient load histories. Examples are provided to demonstrate the features of the methodology as implemented in the CARES/Life program.

A Re-Evaluation of the Causes of Deformation in 1Cr-1Mo-0.25V Steel for Turbine Rotors and Shafts Based on iso-Thermal Plots of the Wilshire Equation and the Modelling of Batch to Batch Variation

PubMed Central

Evans, Mark

2017-01-01

The aims of this paper were to: (a) demonstrate how iso-thermal plots of the Wilshire equation can be used to identify the correct structure of this equation (which in turn enables a meaningful description of the creep mechanism involved in deformation to be made); and (b) show how a generalized specification of batch to batch variation could produce less conservative predictions of the time to failure associated with a given degree of risk. Such predictions were obtained using maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of a generalised F distribution. It was found that the original Wilshire-Scharning assumption of a constant activation energy for this materials is incorrect. Consequently, their interpretation of deformation being due only to dislocation creep with deteriorating microstructure at long duration test times appears to be ill founded, with the varying activation energy suggesting instead that deformation is due to grain boundary sliding accommodated by either dislocation and diffusional creep with dominance changing from the lattice to the grain boundaries as the temperature changes. Modelling batch to batch variation as a function of stress also resulted in a 50% extended safe life prediction (corresponding to a 1% chance of failure) at 873 K and 47 MPa. PMID:28772934

Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jan, Darrell L.; Davidson, Barry D.; Moore, Nicholas R.

1990-01-01

A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

Yield and failure criteria for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Daniel, Isaac M.

2015-12-23

To facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting of new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of structural laminates based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new failure theory, the Northwestern (NU-Daniel) theory, has been proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is primarily applicable to matrix-dominated interfiber/interlaminar failures. It is based on micromechanical failure mechanisms but is expressed in terms of easily measuredmore » macroscopic lamina stiffness and strength properties. It is presented in the form of a master failure envelope incorporating strain rate effects. The theory was further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive failure of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without very extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Development and testing of texture discriminators for the analysis of trabecular bone in proximal femur radiographs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huber, M. B.; Carballido-Gamio, J.; Fritscher, K.

2009-11-15

Purpose: Texture analysis of femur radiographs may serve as a potential low cost technique to predict osteoporotic fracture risk and has received considerable attention in the past years. A further application of this technique may be the measurement of the quality of specific bone compartments to provide useful information for treatment of bone fractures. Two challenges of texture analysis are the selection of the best suitable texture measure and reproducible placement of regions of interest (ROIs). The goal of this in vitro study was to automatically place ROIs in radiographs of proximal femur specimens and to calculate correlations between variousmore » different texture analysis methods and the femurs' anchorage strength. Methods: Radiographs were obtained from 14 femoral specimens and bone mineral density (BMD) was measured in the femoral neck. Biomechanical testing was performed to assess the anchorage strength in terms of failure load, breakaway torque, and number of cycles. Images were segmented using a framework that is based on the usage of level sets and statistical in-shape models. Five ROIs were automatically placed in the head, upper and lower neck, trochanteric, and shaft compartment in an atlas subject. All other subjects were registered rigidly, affinely, and nonlinearly, and the resulting transformation was used to map the five ROIs onto the individual femora. Results: In each ROI, texture features were extracted using gray level co-occurence matrices (GLCM), third-order GLCM, morphological gradients (MGs), Minkowski dimensions (MDs), Minkowski functionals (MFs), Gaussian Markov random fields, and scaling index method (SIM). Coefficients of determination for each texture feature with parameters of anchorage strength were computed. In a stepwise multiregression analysis, the most predictive parameters were identified in different models. Texture features were highly correlated with anchorage strength estimated by the failure load of up to R{sup 2}=0.61 (MF and MG features, p<0.01) and were partially independent of BMD. The correlations were dependent on the choice of the ROI and the texture measure. The best predictive multiregression model for failure load R{sub adj}{sup 2}=0.86 (p<0.001) included a set of recently developed texture methods (MF and SIM) but excluded bone mineral density and commonly used texture measures. Conclusions: The results suggest that texture information contained in trabecular bone structure visualized on radiographs may predict whether an implant anchorage can be used and may determine the local bone quality from preoperative radiographs.« less

Prognostics of Power Electronics, Methods and Validation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

Abstract Failure of electronic devices is a concern for future electric aircrafts that will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. As a result, investigation of precursors to failure in electronics and prediction of remaining life of electronic components is of key importance. DC-DC power converters are power electronics systems employed typically as sourcing elements for avionics equipment. Current research efforts in prognostics for these power systems focuses on the identification of failure mechanisms and the development of accelerated aging methodologies and systems to accelerate the aging process of test devices, while continuously measuring key electrical and thermal parameters. Preliminary model-based prognostics algorithms have been developed making use of empirical degradation models and physics-inspired degradation model with focus on key components like electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs (metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect-transistor). This paper presents current results on the development of validation methods for prognostics algorithms of power electrolytic capacitors. Particularly, in the use of accelerated aging systems for algorithm validation. Validation of prognostics algorithms present difficulties in practice due to the lack of run-to-failure experiments in deployed systems. By using accelerated experiments, we circumvent this problem in order to define initial validation activities.

Probabilistic Analysis of a Composite Crew Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mason, Brian H.; Krishnamurthy, Thiagarajan

2011-01-01

An approach for conducting reliability-based analysis (RBA) of a Composite Crew Module (CCM) is presented. The goal is to identify and quantify the benefits of probabilistic design methods for the CCM and future space vehicles. The coarse finite element model from a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) project is used as the baseline deterministic analysis model to evaluate the performance of the CCM using a strength-based failure index. The first step in the probabilistic analysis process is the determination of the uncertainty distributions for key parameters in the model. Analytical data from water landing simulations are used to develop an uncertainty distribution, but such data were unavailable for other load cases. The uncertainty distributions for the other load scale factors and the strength allowables are generated based on assumed coefficients of variation. Probability of first-ply failure is estimated using three methods: the first order reliability method (FORM), Monte Carlo simulation, and conditional sampling. Results for the three methods were consistent. The reliability is shown to be driven by first ply failure in one region of the CCM at the high altitude abort load set. The final predicted probability of failure is on the order of 10-11 due to the conservative nature of the factors of safety on the deterministic loads.

Microstructural effects on constitutive and fatigue fracture behavior of TinSilverCopper solder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, Jonathon P.

As microelectronic package construction becomes more diverse and complex, the need for accurate, geometry-independent material constitutive and failure models increases. Evaluations of packages based on accelerated environmental tests (such as accelerated thermal cycling or power cycling) only provide package-dependent reliability information. In addition, extrapolations of such test data to life predictions under field conditions are often empirical. Besides geometry, accelerated environmental test data must account for microstructural factors such as alloy composition or isothermal aging condition, resulting in expensive experimental variation. In this work, displacement-controlled, creep, and fatigue lap shear tests are conducted on specially designed SnAgCu test specimens with microstructures representative to those found in commercial microelectronic packages. The data are used to develop constitutive and fatigue fracture material models capable of describing deformation and fracture behavior for the relevant temperature and strain rate ranges. Furthermore, insight is provided into the microstructural variation of solder joints and the subsequent effect on material behavior. These models are appropriate for application to packages of any geometrical construction. The first focus of the thesis is on Pb-mixed SnAgCu solder alloys. During the transition from Pb-containing solders to Pb-free solders, joints composed of a mixture of SnPb and SnAgCu often result from either mixed assemblies or rework. Three alloys of 1, 5 and 20 weight percent Pb were selected so as to represent reasonable ranges of Pb contamination expected from different 63Sn37Pb components mixed with Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu. Displacement-controlled (constant strain rate) and creep tests were performed at temperatures of 25°C, 75°C, and 125°C using a double lap shear test setup that ensures a nearly homogeneous state of plastic strain at the joint interface. Rate-dependent constitutive models for Pb-contaminated SnAgCu solder alloys ranging from the traditional time-hardening creep model to the viscoplastic Anand model are described. The second focus of the thesis is on fatigue damage accumulation in SnAgCu solder alloys. While, typical fatigue fracture models are empirical, recently a non-empirical model termed Maximum Entropy Fracture Model (MEFM) was proposed. MEFM is a thermodynamically consistent and information theory inspired damage accumulation theory for ductile solids. This model has been validated recently for Sn3.8Ag0.7Cu solder alloy, and uses a single damage accumulation parameter to relate the probability of fracture to accumulated entropic dissipation. Isothermal cycling fatigue tests on Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu and mixed SnPb/Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu solder alloys at varying strain rates and temperatures are conducted using a custom-built microscale mechanical tester capable of submicron displacement resolution. MEFM is applied here in conjunction with the Anand viscoplasticity model to predict the softening occurring over successive cycles as a result of damage accumulation. The damage accumulation parameters for Sn3.0Ag0.5Cu in different aged states are related to a microstructural parameter which quantitatively describes the state of coarsening. In addition, damage accumulation parameters for the three mixed solder alloys are reported. This approach allows for a non-empirical prediction of both constitutive and fracture behavior of packages of different geometries and different microstructural states under thermo-mechanical fatigue. Approaches to solder joint reliability predictions from materials science and mechanics perspectives differ dramatically. Materials science methods identify key failure mechanisms, but most models cannot predict failure. In contrast, mechanics approaches often provide estimates of joint lifetime, but fail to provide insight into microstructural influences. This work attempts to connect the two fields by relating constitutive behavior and fatigue fracture models for different alloys and aging conditions to one or more microstructural parameters.

Multi-Dimensional Shallow Landslide Stability Analysis Suitable for Application at the Watershed Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milledge, D.; Bellugi, D.; McKean, J. A.; Dietrich, W.

2012-12-01

The infinite slope model is the basis for almost all watershed scale slope stability models. However, it assumes that a potential landslide is infinitely long and wide. As a result, it cannot represent resistance at the margins of a potential landslide (e.g. from lateral roots), and is unable to predict the size of a potential landslide. Existing three-dimensional models generally require computationally expensive numerical solutions and have previously been applied only at the hillslope scale. Here we derive an alternative analytical treatment that accounts for lateral resistance by representing the forces acting on each margin of an unstable block. We apply 'at rest' earth pressure on the lateral sides, and 'active' and 'passive' pressure using a log-spiral method on the upslope and downslope margins. We represent root reinforcement on each margin assuming that root cohesion is an exponential function of soil depth. We benchmark this treatment against other more complete approaches (Finite Element (FE) and closed form solutions) and find that our model: 1) converges on the infinite slope predictions as length / depth and width / depth ratios become large; 2) agrees with the predictions from state-of-the-art FE models to within +/- 30% error, for the specific cases in which these can be applied. We then test our model's ability to predict failure of an actual (mapped) landslide where the relevant parameters are relatively well constrained. We find that our model predicts failure at the observed location with a nearly identical shape and predicts that larger or smaller shapes conformal to the observed shape are indeed more stable. Finally, we perform a sensitivity analysis using our model to show that lateral reinforcement sets a minimum landslide size, while the additional strength at the downslope boundary means that the optimum shape for a given size is longer in a downslope direction. However, reinforcement effects cannot fully explain the size or shape distributions of observed landslides, highlighting the importance of spatial patterns of key parameters (e.g. pore water pressure) and motivating the model's watershed scale application. This watershed scale application requires an efficient method to find the least stable shapes among an almost infinite set. However, when applied in this context, it allows a more complete examination of the controls on landslide size, shape and location.

Failure mode analysis to predict product reliability.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zemanick, P. P.

1972-01-01

The failure mode analysis (FMA) is described as a design tool to predict and improve product reliability. The objectives of the failure mode analysis are presented as they influence component design, configuration selection, the product test program, the quality assurance plan, and engineering analysis priorities. The detailed mechanics of performing a failure mode analysis are discussed, including one suggested format. Some practical difficulties of implementation are indicated, drawn from experience with preparing FMAs on the nuclear rocket engine program.

Derivation and experimental verification of clock synchronization theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.

1994-01-01

The objective of this work is to validate mathematically derived clock synchronization theories and their associated algorithms through experiment. Two theories are considered, the Interactive Convergence Clock Synchronization Algorithm and the Mid-Point Algorithm. Special clock circuitry was designed and built so that several operating conditions and failure modes (including malicious failures) could be tested. Both theories are shown to predict conservative upper bounds (i.e., measured values of clock skew were always less than the theory prediction). Insight gained during experimentation led to alternative derivations of the theories. These new theories accurately predict the clock system's behavior. It is found that a 100% penalty is paid to tolerate worst case failures. It is also shown that under optimal conditions (with minimum error and no failures) the clock skew can be as much as 3 clock ticks. Clock skew grows to 6 clock ticks when failures are present. Finally, it is concluded that one cannot rely solely on test procedures or theoretical analysis to predict worst case conditions. conditions.

Experimental validation of clock synchronization algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.; Graham, R. Lynn

1992-01-01

The objective of this work is to validate mathematically derived clock synchronization theories and their associated algorithms through experiment. Two theories are considered, the Interactive Convergence Clock Synchronization Algorithm and the Midpoint Algorithm. Special clock circuitry was designed and built so that several operating conditions and failure modes (including malicious failures) could be tested. Both theories are shown to predict conservative upper bounds (i.e., measured values of clock skew were always less than the theory prediction). Insight gained during experimentation led to alternative derivations of the theories. These new theories accurately predict the behavior of the clock system. It is found that a 100 percent penalty is paid to tolerate worst-case failures. It is also shown that under optimal conditions (with minimum error and no failures) the clock skew can be as much as three clock ticks. Clock skew grows to six clock ticks when failures are present. Finally, it is concluded that one cannot rely solely on test procedures or theoretical analysis to predict worst-case conditions.

What Predicts Children's Fixed and Growth Intelligence Mind-Sets? Not Their Parents' Views of Intelligence but Their Parents' Views of Failure.

PubMed

Haimovitz, Kyla; Dweck, Carol S

2016-06-01

Children's intelligence mind-sets (i.e., their beliefs about whether intelligence is fixed or malleable) robustly influence their motivation and learning. Yet, surprisingly, research has not linked parents' intelligence mind-sets to their children's. We tested the hypothesis that a different belief of parents-their failure mind-sets-may be more visible to children and therefore more prominent in shaping their beliefs. In Study 1, we found that parents can view failure as debilitating or enhancing, and that these failure mind-sets predict parenting practices and, in turn, children's intelligence mind-sets. Study 2 probed more deeply into how parents display failure mind-sets. In Study 3a, we found that children can indeed accurately perceive their parents' failure mind-sets but not their parents' intelligence mind-sets. Study 3b showed that children's perceptions of their parents' failure mind-sets also predicted their own intelligence mind-sets. Finally, Study 4 showed a causal effect of parents' failure mind-sets on their responses to their children's hypothetical failure. Overall, parents who see failure as debilitating focus on their children's performance and ability rather than on their children's learning, and their children, in turn, tend to believe that intelligence is fixed rather than malleable. © The Author(s) 2016.

Fear of failure and student athletes' interpersonal antisocial behaviour in education and sport.

PubMed

Sagar, Sam S; Boardley, Ian D; Kavussanu, Maria

2011-09-01

BACKGROUND. The link between fear of failure and students' antisocial behaviour has received scant research attention despite associations between fear of failure, hostility, and aggression. Also, the effect of sport experience on antisocial behaviour has not been considered outside of the sport context in adult populations. Further, to date, sex differences have not been considered in fear of failure research. AIMS. To examine whether (a) fear of failure and sport experience predict antisocial behaviour in the university and sport contexts in student athletes, and whether this prediction is the same in males and females; and (b) sex differences exist in antisocial behaviour and fear of failure. SAMPLE. British university student athletes (n= 176 male; n= 155 female; M(age) = 20.11 years). METHOD. Participants completed questionnaires assessing fear of failure, sport experience, and antisocial behaviour in both contexts. RESULTS. (a) Fear of failure and sport experience positively predicted antisocial behaviour in university and sport and the strength of these predictions did not differ between males and females; (b) females reported higher levels of fear of devaluing one's self-estimate than males whereas males reported higher levels of fear of important others losing interest than females. Males engaged more frequently than females in antisocial behaviour in both contexts. CONCLUSIONS. Fear of failure and sport experience may be important considerations when trying to understand antisocial behaviour in student athletes in education and sport; moreover, the potential effect of overall fear of failure and of sport experience on this frequency does not differ by sex. The findings make an important contribution to the fear of failure and morality literatures. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Contact thermal shock test of ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, W. P.; Emery, A. F.

1992-01-01

A novel quantitative thermal shock test of ceramics is described. The technique employs contact between a metal-cooling rod and hot disk-shaped specimen. In contrast with traditional techniques, the well-defined thermal boundary condition allows for accurate analyses of heat transfer, stress, and fracture. Uniform equibiaxial tensile stresses are induced in the center of the test specimen. Transient specimen temperature and acoustic emission are monitored continuously during the thermal stress cycle. The technique is demonstrated with soda-lime glass specimens. Experimental results are compared with theoretical predictions based on a finite-element method thermal stress analysis combined with a statistical model of fracture. Material strength parameters are determined using concentric ring flexure tests. Good agreement is found between experimental results and theoretical predictions of failure probability as a function of time and initial specimen temperature.

Numerical and Experimental Validation of a New Damage Initiation Criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadhinoch, M.; Atzema, E. H.; Perdahcioglu, E. S.; van den Boogaard, A. H.

2017-09-01

Most commercial finite element software packages, like Abaqus, have a built-in coupled damage model where a damage evolution needs to be defined in terms of a single fracture energy value for all stress states. The Johnson-Cook criterion has been modified to be Lode parameter dependent and this Modified Johnson-Cook (MJC) criterion is used as a Damage Initiation Surface (DIS) in combination with the built-in Abaqus ductile damage model. An exponential damage evolution law has been used with a single fracture energy value. Ultimately, the simulated force-displacement curves are compared with experiments to validate the MJC criterion. 7 out of 9 fracture experiments were predicted accurately. The limitations and accuracy of the failure predictions of the newly developed damage initiation criterion will be discussed shortly.

Effect of damage on elastically tailored composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armanios, Erian; Badir, Ashraf; Berdichevsky, Victor

1991-01-01

A variationally consistent theory is derived in order to predict the response of anisotropic thin-walled closed sections subjected to axial load, torsion and bending. The theory is valid for arbitrary cross-sections made of laminated composite materials with variable thickness and stiffness. Closed form expressions for the stiffness coefficients are provided as integrals in terms of lay-ups parameters and cross-sectional geometry. A comparison of stiffness coefficients and response with finite element predictions and a closed form solution is performed. The theory is applied to the investigation of the effect of damage on the extension-twist coupling in a thin-walled closed section beam. The damage is simulated as a progressive ply-by-ply failure. Results show that damage can have a significant effect on the extension-twist coupling.

SU-E-T-630: Predictive Modeling of Mortality, Tumor Control, and Normal Tissue Complications After Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy for Stage I Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lindsay, WD; Oncora Medical, LLC, Philadelphia, PA; Berlind, CG

Purpose: While rates of local control have been well characterized after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), less data are available characterizing survival and normal tissue toxicities, and no validated models exist assessing these parameters after SBRT. We evaluate the reliability of various machine learning techniques when applied to radiation oncology datasets to create predictive models of mortality, tumor control, and normal tissue complications. Methods: A dataset of 204 consecutive patients with stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) at the University of Pennsylvania between 2009 and 2013more » was used to create predictive models of tumor control, normal tissue complications, and mortality in this IRB-approved study. Nearly 200 data fields of detailed patient- and tumor-specific information, radiotherapy dosimetric measurements, and clinical outcomes data were collected. Predictive models were created for local tumor control, 1- and 3-year overall survival, and nodal failure using 60% of the data (leaving the remainder as a test set). After applying feature selection and dimensionality reduction, nonlinear support vector classification was applied to the resulting features. Models were evaluated for accuracy and area under ROC curve on the 81-patient test set. Results: Models for common events in the dataset (such as mortality at one year) had the highest predictive power (AUC = .67, p < 0.05). For rare occurrences such as radiation pneumonitis and local failure (each occurring in less than 10% of patients), too few events were present to create reliable models. Conclusion: Although this study demonstrates the validity of predictive analytics using information extracted from patient medical records and can most reliably predict for survival after SBRT, larger sample sizes are needed to develop predictive models for normal tissue toxicities and more advanced machine learning methodologies need be consider in the future.« less

Preoperative ultrasound still valuable for radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula creation?

PubMed

Pajek, Jernej; Malovrh, Marko

2017-03-06

Radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula is a prototype hemodialysis access with small incidences of infection and distal ischemia, it spares proximal veins for future access use and it helps in the maturation of veins that may be used for more proximal access creations. This access type is prone to higher early failure rates compared to more proximal fistulas and there are unsolved uncertainties regarding exact ultrasound parameters predictive of fistula outcome. Evolution of ultrasound use has yielded several functional parameters that can be measured in addition to anatomical lumen sizes, which remain core parameters on which the decision to construct fistula in radio-cephalic forearm position is based. We propose to use arterial hyperemic response and wall morphology to aid in this decision when radial artery diameter falls in the interval with predictive uncertainty of 1.6-1.9 mm and to use venous flow pattern, respiratory variation, radial artery status and possibly venous distensibility when cephalic vein augmented diameter lies in the borderline interval of 2-2.4 mm. Ultrasound preoperative mapping and planning should be followed by expert surgical technique and several technique modifications of the classical end-to-side approach are possible to enhance operation outcome and diminish the incidence of stenosis most often present at juxta-anastomotic location. In our experience radio-cephalic arteriovenous fistula remains the golden standard for hemodialysis access and preoperative ultrasound the single best imaging modality to plan the operation and predict its success.

A micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology for notched metal matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1992-01-01

An analytical micromechanics based strength prediction methodology was developed to predict failure of notched metal matrix composites. The stress-strain behavior and notched strength of two metal matrix composites, boron/aluminum (B/Al) and silicon-carbide/titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3), were predicted. The prediction methodology combines analytical techniques ranging from a three dimensional finite element analysis of a notched specimen to a micromechanical model of a single fiber. In the B/Al laminates, a fiber failure criteria based on the axial and shear stress in the fiber accurately predicted laminate failure for a variety of layups and notch-length to specimen-width ratios with both circular holes and sharp notches when matrix plasticity was included in the analysis. For the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates, a fiber failure based on the axial stress in the fiber correlated well with experimental results for static and post fatigue residual strengths when fiber matrix debonding and matrix cracking were included in the analysis. The micromechanics based strength prediction methodology offers a direct approach to strength prediction by modeling behavior and damage on a constituent level, thus, explicitly including matrix nonlinearity, fiber matrix debonding, and matrix cracking.

A micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology for notched metal-matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bigelow, C. A.

1993-01-01

An analytical micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology was developed to predict failure of notched metal matrix composites. The stress-strain behavior and notched strength of two metal matrix composites, boron/aluminum (B/Al) and silicon-carbide/titanium (SCS-6/Ti-15-3), were predicted. The prediction methodology combines analytical techniques ranging from a three-dimensional finite element analysis of a notched specimen to a micromechanical model of a single fiber. In the B/Al laminates, a fiber failure criteria based on the axial and shear stress in the fiber accurately predicted laminate failure for a variety of layups and notch-length to specimen-width ratios with both circular holes and sharp notches when matrix plasticity was included in the analysis. For the SCS-6/Ti-15-3 laminates, a fiber failure based on the axial stress in the fiber correlated well with experimental results for static and postfatigue residual strengths when fiber matrix debonding and matrix cracking were included in the analysis. The micromechanics-based strength prediction methodology offers a direct approach to strength prediction by modeling behavior and damage on a constituent level, thus, explicitly including matrix nonlinearity, fiber matrix debonding, and matrix cracking.

Failure analysis of thick composite cylinders under external pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Caiazzo, A.; Rosen, B. W.

1992-01-01

Failure of thick section composites due to local compression strength and overall structural instability is treated. Effects of material nonlinearity, imperfect fiber architecture, and structural imperfections upon anticipated failure stresses are determined. Comparisons with experimental data for a series of test cylinders are described. Predicting the failure strength of composite structures requires consideration of stability and material strength modes of failure using linear and nonlinear analysis techniques. Material strength prediction requires the accurate definition of the local multiaxial stress state in the material. An elasticity solution for the linear static analysis of thick anisotropic cylinders and rings is used herein to predict the axisymmetric stress state in the cylinders. Asymmetric nonlinear behavior due to initial cylinder out of roundness and the effects of end closure structure are treated using finite element methods. It is assumed that local fiber or ply waviness is an important factor in the initiation of material failure. An analytical model for the prediction of compression failure of fiber composites, which includes the effects of fiber misalignments, matrix inelasticity, and multiaxial applied stresses is used for material strength calculations. Analytical results are compared to experimental data for a series of glass and carbon fiber reinforced epoxy cylinders subjected to external pressure. Recommendations for pretest characterization and other experimental issues are presented. Implications for material and structural design are discussed.

SCARE: A post-processor program to MSC/NASTRAN for the reliability analysis of structural ceramic components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gyekenyesi, J. P.

1985-01-01

A computer program was developed for calculating the statistical fast fracture reliability and failure probability of ceramic components. The program includes the two-parameter Weibull material fracture strength distribution model, using the principle of independent action for polyaxial stress states and Batdorf's shear-sensitive as well as shear-insensitive crack theories, all for volume distributed flaws in macroscopically isotropic solids. Both penny-shaped cracks and Griffith cracks are included in the Batdorf shear-sensitive crack response calculations, using Griffith's maximum tensile stress or critical coplanar strain energy release rate criteria to predict mixed mode fracture. Weibull material parameters can also be calculated from modulus of rupture bar tests, using the least squares method with known specimen geometry and fracture data. The reliability prediction analysis uses MSC/NASTRAN stress, temperature and volume output, obtained from the use of three-dimensional, quadratic, isoparametric, or axisymmetric finite elements. The statistical fast fracture theories employed, along with selected input and output formats and options, are summarized. An example problem to demonstrate various features of the program is included.

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

PubMed

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (P<0.01); elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and decreased CI after contrast merit greatest concern. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hydro-mechanical mechanism and thresholds of rainfall-induced unsaturated landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zongji; Lei, Xiaoqin; Huang, Dong; Qiao, Jianping

2017-04-01

The devastating Ms 8 Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 created the greatest number of co-seismic mountain hazards ever recorded in China. However, the dynamics of rainfall induced mass remobilization and transport deposits after giant earthquake are not fully understood. Moreover, rainfall intensity and duration (I-D) methods are the predominant early warning indicators of rainfall-induced landslides in post-earthquake region, which are a convenient and straight-forward way to predict the hazards. However, the rainfall-based criteria and thresholds are generally empirical and based on statistical analysis,consequently, they ignore the failure mechanisms of the landslides. This study examines the mechanism and hydro-mechanical behavior and thresholds of these unsaturated deposits under the influence of rainfall. To accomplish this, in situ experiments were performed in an instrumented landslide deposit, The field experimental tests were conducted on a natural co-seismic fractured slope to 1) simulate rainfall-induced shallow failures in the depression channels of a debris flow catchment in an earthquake-affected region, 2)explore the mechanisms and transient processes associated with hydro-mechanical parameter variations in response to the infiltration of rainfall, and 3) identify the hydrologic parameter thresholds and critical criteria of gravitational erosion in areas prone to mass remobilization as a source of debris flows. These experiments provided instrumental evidence and directly proved that post-earthquake rainfall-induced mass remobilization occurred under unsaturated conditions in response to transient rainfall infiltration, and revealed the presence of transient processes and the dominance of preferential flow paths during rainfall infiltration. A hydro-mechanical method was adopted for the transient hydrologic process modelling and unsaturated slope stability analysis. and the slope failures during the experimental test were reproduced by the model, indicating that the decrease in matrix suction and increase in moisture content in response to rainfall infiltration contributed greatly to post-earthquake shallow mass movement. Thus, a threshold model for the initiation of mass remobilization is proposed based on correlations between slope stability and volumetric water content and matrix suction As a complement to rainfall-based early warning strategies, the water content and suction threshold models based on the water infiltration induced slope failure mechanism. the proposed method are expected to improve the accuracy of prediction and early warnings of post-earthquake mountain hazards

Reliability measurement for mixed mode failures of 33/11 kilovolt electric power distribution stations.

PubMed

Alwan, Faris M; Baharum, Adam; Hassan, Geehan S

2013-01-01

The reliability of the electrical distribution system is a contemporary research field due to diverse applications of electricity in everyday life and diverse industries. However a few research papers exist in literature. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of 33/11 Kilovolt high-power stations based on average time between failures. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal fit for the failure data via time between failures. We determine the parameter estimation for all components of the station. We also estimate the reliability value of each component and the reliability value of the system as a whole. The best fitting distribution for the time between failures is a three parameter Dagum distribution with a scale parameter [Formula: see text] and shape parameters [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Our analysis reveals that the reliability value decreased by 38.2% in each 30 days. We believe that the current paper is the first to address this issue and its analysis. Thus, the results obtained in this research reflect its originality. We also suggest the practicality of using these results for power systems for both the maintenance of power systems models and preventive maintenance models.

Reliability Measurement for Mixed Mode Failures of 33/11 Kilovolt Electric Power Distribution Stations

PubMed Central

Alwan, Faris M.; Baharum, Adam; Hassan, Geehan S.

2013-01-01

The reliability of the electrical distribution system is a contemporary research field due to diverse applications of electricity in everyday life and diverse industries. However a few research papers exist in literature. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of 33/11 Kilovolt high-power stations based on average time between failures. The objective of this paper is to find the optimal fit for the failure data via time between failures. We determine the parameter estimation for all components of the station. We also estimate the reliability value of each component and the reliability value of the system as a whole. The best fitting distribution for the time between failures is a three parameter Dagum distribution with a scale parameter and shape parameters and . Our analysis reveals that the reliability value decreased by 38.2% in each 30 days. We believe that the current paper is the first to address this issue and its analysis. Thus, the results obtained in this research reflect its originality. We also suggest the practicality of using these results for power systems for both the maintenance of power systems models and preventive maintenance models. PMID:23936346

Incorporation of Failure Into an Orthotropic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Robert K.; Carney, Kelly S.; Dubois, Paul; Hoffarth, Canio; Khaled, Bilal; Shyamsunder, Loukham; Rajan, Subramaniam; Blankenhorn, Gunther

2017-01-01

The need for accurate material models to simulate the deformation, damage and failure of polymer matrix composites under impact conditions is becoming critical as these materials are gaining increased use in the aerospace and automotive communities. The aerospace community has identified several key capabilities which are currently lacking in the available material models in commercial transient dynamic finite element codes. To attempt to improve the predictive capability of composite impact simulations, a next generation material model is being developed for incorporation within the commercial transient dynamic finite element code LS-DYNA. The material model, which incorporates plasticity, damage and failure, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage and the initiation of failure as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters such as modulus and strength. The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is used to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. In the damage model, a semi-coupled approach is employed where the overall damage in a particular coordinate direction is assumed to be a multiplicative combination of the damage in that direction resulting from the applied loads in various coordinate directions. For the failure model, a tabulated approach is utilized in which a stress or strain based invariant is defined as a function of the location of the current stress state in stress space to define the initiation of failure. Failure surfaces can be defined with any arbitrary shape, unlike traditional failure models where the mathematical functions used to define the failure surface impose a specific shape on the failure surface. In the current paper, the complete development of the failure model is described and the generation of a tabulated failure surface for a representative composite material is discussed.

A probabilistic approach for shallow rainfall-triggered landslide modeling at basin scale. A case study in the Luquillo Forest, Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dialynas, Y. G.; Arnone, E.; Noto, L. V.; Bras, R. L.

2013-12-01

Slope stability depends on geotechnical and hydrological factors that exhibit wide natural spatial variability, yet sufficient measurements of the related parameters are rarely available over entire study areas. The uncertainty associated with the inability to fully characterize hydrologic behavior has an impact on any attempt to model landslide hazards. This work suggests a way to systematically account for this uncertainty in coupled distributed hydrological-stability models for shallow landslide hazard assessment. A probabilistic approach for the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslide occurrence at basin scale was implemented in an existing distributed eco-hydrological and landslide model, tRIBS-VEGGIE -landslide (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator - VEGetation Generator for Interactive Evolution). More precisely, we upgraded tRIBS-VEGGIE- landslide to assess the likelihood of shallow landslides by accounting for uncertainty related to geotechnical and hydrological factors that directly affect slope stability. Natural variability of geotechnical soil characteristics was considered by randomizing soil cohesion and friction angle. Hydrological uncertainty related to the estimation of matric suction was taken into account by considering soil retention parameters as correlated random variables. The probability of failure is estimated through an assumed theoretical Factor of Safety (FS) distribution, conditioned on soil moisture content. At each cell, the temporally variant FS statistics are approximated by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method, as a function of parameters statistical properties. The model was applied on the Rio Mameyes Basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico, where previous landslide analyses have been carried out. At each time step, model outputs include the probability of landslide occurrence across the basin, and the most probable depth of failure at each soil column. The use of the proposed probabilistic approach for shallow landslide prediction is able to reveal and quantify landslide risk at slopes assessed as stable by simpler deterministic methods.

Very High Cycle Fatigue Failure Analysis and Life Prediction of Cr-Ni-W Gear Steel Based on Crack Initiation and Growth Behaviors.

PubMed

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Sakai, Tatsuo; Sun, Zhenduo

2015-12-02

The unexpected failures of structural materials in very high cycle fatigue (VHCF) regime have been a critical issue in modern engineering design. In this study, the VHCF property of a Cr-Ni-W gear steel was experimentally investigated under axial loading with the stress ratio of R = -1, and a life prediction model associated with crack initiation and growth behaviors was proposed. Results show that the Cr-Ni-W gear steel exhibits the constantly decreasing S-N property without traditional fatigue limit, and the fatigue strength corresponding to 10⁸ cycles is around 485 MPa. The inclusion-fine granular area (FGA)-fisheye induced failure becomes the main failure mechanism in the VHCF regime, and the local stress around the inclusion play a key role. By using the finite element analysis of representative volume element, the local stress tends to increase with the increase of elastic modulus difference between inclusion and matrix. The predicted crack initiation life occupies the majority of total fatigue life, while the predicted crack growth life is only accounts for a tiny fraction. In view of the good agreement between the predicted and experimental results, the proposed VHCF life prediction model involving crack initiation and growth can be acceptable for inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems.

Spatio-temporal propagation of cascading overload failures in spatially embedded networks

PubMed Central

Zhao, Jichang; Li, Daqing; Sanhedrai, Hillel; Cohen, Reuven; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Different from the direct contact in epidemics spread, overload failures propagate through hidden functional dependencies. Many studies focused on the critical conditions and catastrophic consequences of cascading failures. However, to understand the network vulnerability and mitigate the cascading overload failures, the knowledge of how the failures propagate in time and space is essential but still missing. Here we study the spatio-temporal propagation behaviour of cascading overload failures analytically and numerically on spatially embedded networks. The cascading overload failures are found to spread radially from the centre of the initial failure with an approximately constant velocity. The propagation velocity decreases with increasing tolerance, and can be well predicted by our theoretical framework with one single correction for all the tolerance values. This propagation velocity is found similar in various model networks and real network structures. Our findings may help to predict the dynamics of cascading overload failures in realistic systems. PMID:26754065

Point-shear wave elastography predicts liver hypertrophy after portal vein embolization and postoperative liver failure.

PubMed

Hocquelet, A; Frulio, N; Gallo, G; Laurent, C; Papadopoulos, P; Salut, C; Denys, A; Trillaud, H

2018-06-01

To correlate point-shear wave elastography (SWE) with liver hypertrophy after right portal vein embolization (RPVE) and to determine its usefulness in predicting postoperative liver failure in patients undergoing partial liver resection. Point-SWE was performed the day before RPVE in 56 patients (41 men) with a median age of 66 years. The percentage (%) of future remnant liver (FRL) volume increase was defined as: %FRL post -%FRL pre %FRL pre ×100 and assessed on computed tomography performed 4 weeks after RPVE. Median (range) %FRL pre and %FRL post was respectively, 31.5% (12-48%) and 41% (23-61%) (P<0.001), with a median %FRL volume increase of 25.6% (-8; 123%). SWE correlated with %FRL volume increase (P=-0.510; P<0.001). SWV (P=0.003) and %FRL pre (P<0.001) were associated with %FRL volume increase at multivariate regression analysis. Forty-three patients (77%) were operated. Postoperative liver failure occurred in 14 patients (32.5%). Median SWE was different between the group with (1.68m/s) and without liver failure (1.07m/s) (P=0.018). The AUROC of SWE predicting liver failure was 0.724 with a best cut-off of 1.31m/s, corresponding to a sensitivity of 21%, specificity of 96%, positive predictive value 75% and negative predictive value of 72%. SWE was the single independent preoperative variable associated with liver failure. SWE assessed by point-SWE is a simple and useful tool to predict the FRL volume increase and postoperative liver failure in a population of patients with liver tumor. Copyright © 2018 Société française de radiologie. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Intralaminar and Interlaminar Progressive Failure Analysis of Composite Panels with Circular Cutouts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goyal, Vinay K.; Jaunky, Navin; Johnson, Eric R.; Ambur, Damodar

2002-01-01

A progressive failure methodology is developed and demonstrated to simulate the initiation and material degradation of a laminated panel due to intralaminar and interlaminar failures. Initiation of intralaminar failure can be by a matrix-cracking mode, a fiber-matrix shear mode, and a fiber failure mode. Subsequent material degradation is modeled using damage parameters for each mode to selectively reduce lamina material properties. The interlaminar failure mechanism such as delamination is simulated by positioning interface elements between adjacent sublaminates. A nonlinear constitutive law is postulated for the interface element that accounts for a multi-axial stress criteria to detect the initiation of delamination, a mixed-mode fracture criteria for delamination progression, and a damage parameter to prevent restoration of a previous cohesive state. The methodology is validated using experimental data available in the literature on the response and failure of quasi-isotropic panels with centrally located circular cutouts loaded into the postbuckling regime. Very good agreement between the progressive failure analyses and the experimental results is achieved if the failure analyses includes the interaction of intralaminar and interlaminar failures.

Continuous ECG Monitoring in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome or Heart Failure: EASI Versus Gold Standard.

PubMed

Lancia, Loreto; Toccaceli, Andrea; Petrucci, Cristina; Romano, Silvio; Penco, Maria

2018-05-01

The purpose of the study was to compare the EASI system with the standard 12-lead surface electrocardiogram (ECG) for the accuracy in detecting the main electrocardiographic parameters (J point, PR, QT, and QRS) commonly monitored in patients with acute coronary syndromes or heart failure. In this observational comparative study, 253 patients who were consecutively admitted to the coronary care unit with acute coronary syndrome or heart failure were evaluated. In all patients, two complete 12-lead ECGs were acquired simultaneously. A total of 6,072 electrocardiographic leads were compared (3,036 standard and 3,036 EASI). No significant differences were found between the investigate parameters of the two measurement methods, either in patients with acute coronary syndrome or in those with heart failure. This study confirmed the accuracy of the EASI system in monitoring the main ECG parameters in patients admitted to the coronary care unit with acute coronary syndrome or heart failure.

Deterministic and Probabilistic Creep and Creep Rupture Enhancement to CARES/Creep: Multiaxial Creep Life Prediction of Ceramic Structures Using Continuum Damage Mechanics and the Finite Element Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama M.; Powers, Lynn M.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1998-01-01

High temperature and long duration applications of monolithic ceramics can place their failure mode in the creep rupture regime. A previous model advanced by the authors described a methodology by which the creep rupture life of a loaded component can be predicted. That model was based on the life fraction damage accumulation rule in association with the modified Monkman-Grant creep ripture criterion However, that model did not take into account the deteriorating state of the material due to creep damage (e.g., cavitation) as time elapsed. In addition, the material creep parameters used in that life prediction methodology, were based on uniaxial creep curves displaying primary and secondary creep behavior, with no tertiary regime. The objective of this paper is to present a creep life prediction methodology based on a modified form of the Kachanov-Rabotnov continuum damage mechanics (CDM) theory. In this theory, the uniaxial creep rate is described in terms of stress, temperature, time, and the current state of material damage. This scalar damage state parameter is basically an abstract measure of the current state of material damage due to creep deformation. The damage rate is assumed to vary with stress, temperature, time, and the current state of damage itself. Multiaxial creep and creep rupture formulations of the CDM approach are presented in this paper. Parameter estimation methodologies based on nonlinear regression analysis are also described for both, isothermal constant stress states and anisothermal variable stress conditions This creep life prediction methodology was preliminarily added to the integrated design code CARES/Creep (Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Creep), which is a postprocessor program to commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) packages. Two examples, showing comparisons between experimental and predicted creep lives of ceramic specimens, are used to demonstrate the viability of this methodology and the CARES/Creep program.

Compression After Impact on Honeycomb Core Sandwich Panels with Thin Facesheets, Part 2: Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcquigg, Thomas D.; Kapania, Rakesh K.; Scotti, Stephen J.; Walker, Sandra P.

2012-01-01

A two part research study has been completed on the topic of compression after impact (CAI) of thin facesheet honeycomb core sandwich panels. The research has focused on both experiments and analysis in an effort to establish and validate a new understanding of the damage tolerance of these materials. Part 2, the subject of the current paper, is focused on the analysis, which corresponds to the CAI testings described in Part 1. Of interest, are sandwich panels, with aerospace applications, which consist of very thin, woven S2-fiberglass (with MTM45-1 epoxy) facesheets adhered to a Nomex honeycomb core. Two sets of materials, which were identical with the exception of the density of the honeycomb core, were tested in Part 1. The results highlighted the need for analysis methods which taken into account multiple failure modes. A finite element model (FEM) is developed here, in Part 2. A commercial implementation of the Multicontinuum Failure Theory (MCT) for progressive failure analysis (PFA) in composite laminates, Helius:MCT, is included in this model. The inclusion of PFA in the present model provided a new, unique ability to account for multiple failure modes. In addition, significant impact damage detail is included in the model. A sensitivity study, used to assess the effect of each damage parameter on overall analysis results, is included in an appendix. Analysis results are compared to the experimental results for each of the 32 CAI sandwich panel specimens tested to failure. The failure of each specimen is predicted using the high-fidelity, physicsbased analysis model developed here, and the results highlight key improvements in the understanding of honeycomb core sandwich panel CAI failure. Finally, a parametric study highlights the strength benefits compared to mass penalty for various core densities.

Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

2016-01-01

Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account risks attributable to manufacturing, assembly, and process controls. These sources often dominate component level reliability or risk of failure probability. While consequences of failure is often understood in assessing risk, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence will likely underestimate the risk. Managers and decision makers often use the probability of occurrence in determining whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. Due to the absence of system level test and operational data inherent in aerospace applications, the actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be appropriately characterized for decision making purposes. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

Simplified aerodynamic analysis of the cyclogiro rotating wing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheatley, John B

1930-01-01

A simplified aerodynamic theory of the cyclogiro rotating wing is presented herein. In addition, examples have been calculated showing the effect on the rotor characteristics of varying the design parameters of the rotor. A performance prediction, on the basis of the theory here developed, is appended, showing the performance to be expected of a machine employing this system of sustentation. The aerodynamic principles of the cyclogiro are sound; hovering flight, vertical climb, and a reasonable forward speed may be obtained with a normal expenditure of power. Auto rotation in a gliding descent is available in the event of a power-plant failure.

Concurrent material-fabrication optimization of metal-matrix laminates under thermo-mechanical loading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saravanos, D. A.; Morel, M. R.; Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

A methodology is developed to tailor fabrication and material parameters of metal-matrix laminates for maximum loading capacity under thermomechanical loads. The stresses during the thermomechanical response are minimized subject to failure constrains and bounds on the laminate properties. The thermomechanical response of the laminate is simulated using nonlinear composite mechanics. Evaluations of the method on a graphite/copper symmetric cross-ply laminate were performed. The cross-ply laminate required different optimum fabrication procedures than a unidirectional composite. Also, the consideration of the thermomechanical cycle had a significant effect on the predicted optimal process.

Sensitivity study on durability variables of marine concrete structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Xin'gang; Li, Kefei

2013-06-01

In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter's sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick's 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method (DSA), the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis (PSA), the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.

Synergistic Effects of Temperature, Oxidation and Multicracking Modes on Damage Evolution and Life Prediction of 2D Woven Ceramic-Matrix Composites under Tension-Tension Fatigue Loading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longbiao, Li

2017-08-01

In this paper, the synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation and multicracking modes on damage evolution and life prediction in 2D woven ceramic-matrix composites (CMCs) have been investigated. The damage parameter of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy and the interface shear stress were used to monitor the damage evolution inside of CMCs. Under cyclic fatigue loading, the fibers broken fraction was determined by combining the interface/fiber oxidation model, interface wear model and fibers statistical failure model at elevated temperature, based on the assumption that the fiber strength is subjected to two-parameter Weibull distribution and the load carried by broken and intact fibers satisfy the Global Load Sharing (GLS) criterion. When the broken fibers fraction approaches to the critical value, the composite fatigue fractures. The evolution of fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy, the interface shear stress and broken fibers fraction versus cycle number, and the fatigue life S-N curves of SiC/SiC at 1000, 1200 and 1300 °C in air and steam condition have been predicted. The synergistic effects of temperature, oxidation, fatigue peak stress, and multicracking modes on the evolution of interface shear stress and fatigue hysteresis dissipated energy versus cycle numbers curves have been analyzed.

Two-Pendulum Model of Propellant Slosh in Europa Clipper PMD Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ng, Wanyi; Benson, David

2017-01-01

The objective of this fluids analysis is to model propellant slosh for the Europa Clipper mission using a two-pendulum model, such that controls engineers can predict slosh behavior during the mission. Propellant slosh causes shifts in center of mass and exerts forces and torques on the spacecraft which, if not adequately controlled, can lead to mission failure. The two-pendulum model provides a computationally simple model that can be used to predict slosh for the Europa Clipper tank geometry. The Europa Clipper tank is cylindrical with a domed top and bottom and includes a propellant management device (PMD). Due to the lack of experimental data in low gravity environments, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation results were used as 'real' slosh behavior for two propellants at three fill fractions. Key pendulum parameters were derived that allow the pendulum model's center of mass, forces, and moments to closely match the CFD data. The parameter trends were examined as a function of tank fill fraction and compared with solutions to analytic equations that describe the frequency of slosh in tanks with simple geometries. The trends were monotonic as expected, and parameters resembled analytical predictions; any differences could be explained by the specific differences in the geometry of the tank. This paper summarizes the new method developed at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for deriving pendulum parameters for two-pendulum equivalent sloshing models. It presents the results of this method and discusses the validity of the results. This analysis is at a completed stage and will be applied in the immediate future to the evolving tank geometry as Europa Clipper moves past its preliminary design review (PDR) phase.

Risk factors for the treatment outcome of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis patients in China: an optimized prediction model.

PubMed

Wang, X-M; Yin, S-H; Du, J; Du, M-L; Wang, P-Y; Wu, J; Horbinski, C M; Wu, M-J; Zheng, H-Q; Xu, X-Q; Shu, W; Zhang, Y-J

2017-07-01

Retreatment of tuberculosis (TB) often fails in China, yet the risk factors associated with the failure remain unclear. To identify risk factors for the treatment failure of retreated pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, we analyzed the data of 395 retreated PTB patients who received retreatment between July 2009 and July 2011 in China. PTB patients were categorized into 'success' and 'failure' groups by their treatment outcome. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression were used to evaluate the association between treatment outcome and socio-demographic as well as clinical factors. We also created an optimized risk score model to evaluate the predictive values of these risk factors on treatment failure. Of 395 patients, 99 (25·1%) were diagnosed as retreatment failure. Our results showed that risk factors associated with treatment failure included drug resistance, low education level, low body mass index (6 months), standard treatment regimen, retreatment type, positive culture result after 2 months of treatment, and the place where the first medicine was taken. An Optimized Framingham risk model was then used to calculate the risk scores of these factors. Place where first medicine was taken (temporary living places) received a score of 6, which was highest among all the factors. The predicted probability of treatment failure increases as risk score increases. Ten out of 359 patients had a risk score >9, which corresponded to an estimated probability of treatment failure >70%. In conclusion, we have identified multiple clinical and socio-demographic factors that are associated with treatment failure of retreated PTB patients. We also created an optimized risk score model that was effective in predicting the retreatment failure. These results provide novel insights for the prognosis and improvement of treatment for retreated PTB patients.

A Review of Statistical Failure Time Models with Application of a Discrete Hazard Based Model to 1Cr1Mo-0.25V Steel for Turbine Rotors and Shafts

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Producing predictions of the probabilistic risks of operating materials for given lengths of time at stated operating conditions requires the assimilation of existing deterministic creep life prediction models (that only predict the average failure time) with statistical models that capture the random component of creep. To date, these approaches have rarely been combined to achieve this objective. The first half of this paper therefore provides a summary review of some statistical models to help bridge the gap between these two approaches. The second half of the paper illustrates one possible assimilation using 1Cr1Mo-0.25V steel. The Wilshire equation for creep life prediction is integrated into a discrete hazard based statistical model—the former being chosen because of its novelty and proven capability in accurately predicting average failure times and the latter being chosen because of its flexibility in modelling the failure time distribution. Using this model it was found that, for example, if this material had been in operation for around 15 years at 823 K and 130 MPa, the chances of failure in the next year is around 35%. However, if this material had been in operation for around 25 years, the chance of failure in the next year rises dramatically to around 80%. PMID:29039773

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

On the State of Stress and Failure Prediction Near Planetary Surface Loads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, R. A.

1996-03-01

The state of stress surrounding planetary surface loads has been used extensively to predict failure of surface rocks and to invert this information for effective elastic thickness. As demonstrated previously, however, several factors can be important including an explicit comparison between model stresses and rock strength as well as the magnitude of calculated stress. As re-emphasized below, failure to take stress magnitudes into account can lead to erroneous predictions of near-surface faulting. This abstract results from discussions on graben formation at Fall 1995 AGU.

Porcine model characterizing various parameters assessing the outcome after acetaminophen intoxication induced acute liver failure

PubMed Central

Thiel, Karolin; Klingert, Wilfried; Klingert, Kathrin; Morgalla, Matthias H; Schuhmann, Martin U; Leckie, Pamela; Sharifi, Yalda; Davies, Nathan A; Jalan, Rajiv; Peter, Andreas; Grasshoff, Christian; Königsrainer, Alfred; Schenk, Martin; Thiel, Christian

2017-01-01

AIM To investigate the changes of hemodynamic and laboratory parameters during the course of acute liver failure following acetaminophen overdose. METHODS Eight pigs underwent a midline laparotomy following jejunal catheter placement for further acetaminophen intoxication and positioning of a portal vein Doppler flow-probe. Acute liver failure was realized by intrajejunal acetaminophen administration in six animals, two animals were sham operated. All animals were invasively monitored and received standardized intensive care support throughout the study. Portal blood flow, hemodynamic and ventilation parameters were continuously recorded. Laboratory parameters were analysed every eight hours. Liver biopsies were sampled every 24 h following intoxication and upon autopsy. RESULTS Acute liver failure (ALF) occurred after 28 ± 5 h resulted in multiple organ failure and death despite maximal support after further 21 ± 1 h (study end). Portal blood flow (baseline 1100 ± 156 mL/min) increased to a maximum flow of 1873 ± 175 mL/min at manifestation of ALF, which was significantly elevated (P < 0.01). Immediately after peaking, portal flow declined rapidly to 283 ± 135 mL/min at study end. Thrombocyte values (baseline 307 × 103/µL ± 34 × 103/µL) of intoxicated animals declined slowly to values of 145 × 103/µL ± 46 × 103/µL when liver failure occurred. Subsequent appearance of severe thrombocytopenia in liver failure resulted in values of 11 × 103/µL ± 3 × 103/µL preceding fatality within few hours which was significant (P > 0.01). CONCLUSION Declining portal blood flow and subsequent severe thrombocytopenia after acetaminophen intoxication precede fatality in a porcine acute liver failure model. PMID:28321158

Left ventricular markers of global dyssynchrony predict limited exercise capacity in heart failure, but not in patients with preserved ejection fraction.

PubMed

Bajraktari, Gani; Batalli, Arlind; Poniku, Afrim; Ahmeti, Artan; Olloni, Rozafa; Hyseni, Violeta; Vela, Zana; Morina, Besim; Tafarshiku, Rina; Vela, Driton; Rashiti, Premtim; Haliti, Edmond; Henein, Michael Y

2012-09-11

The aim of this study was to prospectively examine echocardiographic parameters that correlate and predict functional capacity assessed by 6 min walk test (6-MWT) in patients with heart failure (HF), irrespective of ejection fraction (EF). In 147 HF patients (mean age 61 ± 11 years, 50.3% male), a 6-MWT and an echo-Doppler study were performed in the same day. Global LV dyssynchrony was indirectly assessed by total isovolumic time - t-IVT [in s/min; calculated as: 60 - (total ejection time + total filling time)], and Tei index (t-IVT/ejection time). Patients were divided into two groups based on the 6-MWT distance (Group I: ≤ 300 m and Group II: >300 m), and also in two groups according to EF (Group A: LVEF ≥ 45% and Group B: LVEF < 45%). In the cohort of patients as a whole, the 6-MWT correlated with t-IVT (r = -0.49, p < 0.001) and Tei index (r = -0.43, p < 0.001) but not with any of the other clinical or echocardiographic parameters. Group I had lower hemoglobin level (p = 0.02), lower EF (p = 0.003), larger left atrium (p = 0.02), thicker interventricular septum (p = 0.02), lower A wave (p = 0.01) and lateral wall late diastolic myocardial velocity a' (p = 0.047), longer isovolumic relaxation time (r = 0.003) and longer t-IVT (p = 0.03), compared with Group II. In the patients cohort as a whole, only t-IVT ratio [1.257 (1.071-1.476), p = 0.005], LV EF [0.947 (0.903-0.993), p = 0.02], and E/A ratio [0.553 (0.315-0.972), p = 0.04] independently predicted poor 6-MWT performance (<300 m) in multivariate analysis. None of the echocardiographic measurements predicted exercise tolerance in HFpEF. In patients with HF, the limited exercise capacity, assessed by 6-MWT, is related mostly to severity of global LV dyssynchrony, more than EF or raised filling pressures. The lack of exercise predictors in HFpEF reflects its multifactorial pathophysiology.

Heart rate turbulence predicts ICD-resistant mortality in ischaemic heart disease.

PubMed

Marynissen, Thomas; Floré, Vincent; Heidbuchel, Hein; Nuyens, Dieter; Ector, Joris; Willems, Rik

2014-07-01

In high-risk patients, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) can convert the mode of death from arrhythmic to pump failure death. Therefore, we introduced the concept of 'ICD-resistant mortality' (IRM), defined as death (a) without previous appropriate ICD intervention (AI), (b) within 1 month after the first AI, or (c) within 1 year after the initial ICD implantation. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation in patients with a high risk of IRM should be avoided. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator patients with ischaemic heart disease were included if a digitized 24 h Holter was available pre-implantation. Demographic, electrocardiographic, echocardiographic, and 24 h Holter risk factors were collected at device implantation. The primary endpoint was IRM. Cox regression analyses were used to test the association between predictors and outcome. We included 130 patients, with a mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of 33.6 ± 10.3%. During a follow-up of 52 ± 31 months, 33 patients died. There were 21 cases of IRM. Heart rate turbulence (HRT) was the only Holter parameter associated with IRM and total mortality. A higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and a lower body mass index were the strongest predictors of IRM. Left ventricular ejection fraction predicted IRM on univariate analysis, and was the strongest predictor of total mortality. The only parameter that predicted AI was non-sustained ventricular tachycardia. Implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation based on NYHA class and LVEF leads to selection of patients with a higher risk of IRM and death. Heart rate turbulence may have added value for the identification of poor candidates for ICD therapy. Available Holter parameters seem limited in their ability to predict AI. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2013. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Multiple Fatigue Failure Behaviors and Long-Life Prediction Approach of Carburized Cr-Ni Steel with Variable Stress Ratio

PubMed Central

Deng, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zhao, Hongqiao; Sakai, Tatsuo

2017-01-01

Axial loading tests with stress ratios R of −1, 0 and 0.3 were performed to examine the fatigue failure behavior of a carburized Cr-Ni steel in the long-life regime from 104 to 108 cycles. Results show that this steel represents continuously descending S-N characteristics with interior inclusion-induced failure under R = −1, whereas it shows duplex S-N characteristics with surface defect-induced failure and interior inclusion-induced failure under R = 0 and 0.3. The increasing tension eliminates the effect of compressive residual stress and promotes crack initiation from the surface or interior defects in the carburized layer. The FGA (fine granular area) formation greatly depends on the number of loading cycles, but can be inhibited by decreasing the compressive stress. Based on the evaluation of the stress intensity factor at the crack tip, the surface and interior failures in the short life regime can be characterized by the crack growth process, while the interior failure with the FGA in the long life regime can be characterized by the crack initiation process. In view of the good agreement between predicted and experimental results, the proposed approach can be well utilized to predict fatigue lives associated with interior inclusion-FGA-fisheye induced failure, interior inclusion-fisheye induced failure, and surface defect induced failure. PMID:28906454

Risk prediction models for graft failure in kidney transplantation: a systematic review.

PubMed

Kaboré, Rémi; Haller, Maria C; Harambat, Jérôme; Heinze, Georg; Leffondré, Karen

2017-04-01

Risk prediction models are useful for identifying kidney recipients at high risk of graft failure, thus optimizing clinical care. Our objective was to systematically review the models that have been recently developed and validated to predict graft failure in kidney transplantation recipients. We used PubMed and Scopus to search for English, German and French language articles published in 2005-15. We selected studies that developed and validated a new risk prediction model for graft failure after kidney transplantation, or validated an existing model with or without updating the model. Data on recipient characteristics and predictors, as well as modelling and validation methods were extracted. In total, 39 articles met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 34 developed and validated a new risk prediction model and 5 validated an existing one with or without updating the model. The most frequently predicted outcome was graft failure, defined as dialysis, re-transplantation or death with functioning graft. Most studies used the Cox model. There was substantial variability in predictors used. In total, 25 studies used predictors measured at transplantation only, and 14 studies used predictors also measured after transplantation. Discrimination performance was reported in 87% of studies, while calibration was reported in 56%. Performance indicators were estimated using both internal and external validation in 13 studies, and using external validation only in 6 studies. Several prediction models for kidney graft failure in adults have been published. Our study highlights the need to better account for competing risks when applicable in such studies, and to adequately account for post-transplant measures of predictors in studies aiming at improving monitoring of kidney transplant recipients. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Method and apparatus for faulty memory utilization

DOEpatents

Cher, Chen-Yong; Andrade Costa, Carlos H.; Park, Yoonho; Rosenburg, Bryan S.; Ryu, Kyung D.

2016-04-19

A method for faulty memory utilization in a memory system includes: obtaining information regarding memory health status of at least one memory page in the memory system; determining an error tolerance of the memory page when the information regarding memory health status indicates that a failure is predicted to occur in an area of the memory system affecting the memory page; initiating a migration of data stored in the memory page when it is determined that the data stored in the memory page is non-error-tolerant; notifying at least one application regarding a predicted operating system failure and/or a predicted application failure when it is determined that data stored in the memory page is non-error-tolerant and cannot be migrated; and notifying at least one application regarding the memory failure predicted to occur when it is determined that data stored in the memory page is error-tolerant.

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

PubMed Central

Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-01-01

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

PubMed

Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

2017-09-15

Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

Prediction of failure pressure and leak rate of stress corrosion.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.; Kasza, K.; Park, J. Y.

2002-06-24

An ''equivalent rectangular crack'' approach was employed to predict rupture pressures and leak rates through laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks and steam generator tubes removed from the McGuire Nuclear Station. Specimen flaws were sized by post-test fractography in addition to a pre-test advanced eddy current technique. The predicted and observed test data on rupture and leak rate are compared. In general, the test failure pressures and leak rates are closer to those predicted on the basis of fractography than on nondestructive evaluation (NDE). However, the predictions based on NDE results are encouraging, particularly because they have the potential to determinemore » a more detailed geometry of ligamented cracks, from which failure pressure and leak rate can be more accurately predicted. One test specimen displayed a time-dependent increase of leak rate under constant pressure.« less

Prognostic utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Score and amino terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide in varying stages of systolic heart failure.

PubMed

Adlbrecht, Christopher; Hülsmann, Martin; Neuhold, Stephanie; Strunk, Guido; Pacher, Richard

2013-05-01

Cardiac transplantation represents the best procedure to improve long-term clinical outcome in advanced chronic heart failure (CHF), if pre-selection criteria are sufficient to outweigh the risk of the failing heart over the risk of transplantation. Although the cornerstone of success, risk assessment in heart transplant candidates is still under-investigated. Amino terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is regarded as the best predictor of outcome in CHF, and the Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS), including clinical markers, is widely used if NT-proBNP is unavailable. The present study assessed the predictive value for all-cause death of the SHFS in CHF patients and compared it with NT-proBNP in a multivariate model including established baseline parameters known to predict survival. A total of 429 patients receiving stable HF-specific pharmacotherapy were included and monitored for 53.4 ± 20.6 months. Of these, 133 patients (31%) died during follow-up. Several established predictors of death on univariate analysis proved significant for the total study cohort. Systolic pulmonary arterial pressure (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.05); p < 0.001, Wald 15.1), logNT-proBNP (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.22-1.86; p < 0.001, Wald 14.9), and the SHFS (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99-1.00; p < 0.001, Wald 12.6) remained within the stepwise multivariate Cox regression model as independent predictors of all-cause death. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed an area under the curve of 0.802 for logNT-proBNP and 0.762 for the SHFS. NT-proBNP is a more potent marker to identify patients at the highest risk. If the NT-proBNP measurement is unavailable, the SHFS may serve as an adequate clinical surrogate to predict all-cause death. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimisation of shock absorber process parameters using failure mode and effect analysis and genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariajayaprakash, Arokiasamy; Senthilvelan, Thiyagarajan; Vivekananthan, Krishnapillai Ponnambal

2013-07-01

The various process parameters affecting the quality characteristics of the shock absorber during the process were identified using the Ishikawa diagram and by failure mode and effect analysis. The identified process parameters are welding process parameters (squeeze, heat control, wheel speed, and air pressure), damper sealing process parameters (load, hydraulic pressure, air pressure, and fixture height), washing process parameters (total alkalinity, temperature, pH value of rinsing water, and timing), and painting process parameters (flowability, coating thickness, pointage, and temperature). In this paper, the process parameters, namely, painting and washing process parameters, are optimized by Taguchi method. Though the defects are reasonably minimized by Taguchi method, in order to achieve zero defects during the processes, genetic algorithm technique is applied on the optimized parameters obtained by Taguchi method.

If It Is Stored in My Memory I Will Surely Retrieve It: Anatomy of a Metacognitive Belief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kornell, Nate

2015-01-01

Retrieval failures--moments when a memory will not come to mind--are a universal human experience. Yet many laypeople believe human memory is a reliable storage system in which a stored memory should be accessible. I predicted that people would see retrieval failures as aberrations and predict that fewer retrieval failures would happen in the…

Adapting the Surgical Apgar Score for Perioperative Outcome Prediction in Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Study

PubMed Central

Pearson, Amy C. S.; Subramanian, Arun; Schroeder, Darrell R.; Findlay, James Y.

2017-01-01

Background The surgical Apgar score (SAS) is a 10-point scale using the lowest heart rate, lowest mean arterial pressure, and estimated blood loss (EBL) during surgery to predict postoperative outcomes. The SAS has not yet been validated in liver transplantation patients, because typical blood loss usually exceeds the highest EBL category. Our primary aim was to develop a modified SAS for liver transplant (SAS-LT) by replacing the EBL parameter with volume of red cells transfused. We hypothesized that the SAS-LT would predict death or severe complication within 30 days of transplant with similar accuracy to current scoring systems. Methods A retrospective cohort of consecutive liver transplantations from July 2007 to November 2013 was used to develop the SAS-LT. The predictive ability of SAS-LT for early postoperative outcomes was compared with Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III scores using multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results Of 628 transplants, death or serious perioperative morbidity occurred in 105 (16.7%). The SAS-LT (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve [AUC], 0.57) had similar predictive ability to Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III, model for end-stage liver disease, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores (0.57, 0.56, and 0.61, respectively). Seventy-nine (12.6%) patients were discharged from the ICU in 24 hours or less. These patients’ SAS-LT scores were significantly higher than those with a longer stay (7.0 vs 6.2, P < 0.01). The AUC on multivariable modeling remained predictive of early ICU discharge (AUC, 0.67). Conclusions The SAS-LT utilized simple intraoperative metrics to predict early morbidity and mortality after liver transplant with similar accuracy to other scoring systems at an earlier postoperative time point. PMID:29184910

Prediction of Composite Laminate Strength Properties Using a Refined Zigzag Plate Element

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barut, Atila; Madenci, Erdogan; Tessler, Alexander

2013-01-01

This study presents an approach that uses the refined zigzag element, RZE(exp2,2) in conjunction with progressive failure criteria to predict the ultimate strength of composite laminates based on only ply-level strength properties. The methodology involves four major steps: (1) Determination of accurate stress and strain fields under complex loading conditions using RZE(exp2,2)-based finite element analysis, (2) Determination of failure locations and failure modes using the commonly accepted Hashin's failure criteria, (3) Recursive degradation of the material stiffness, and (4) Non-linear incremental finite element analysis to obtain stress redistribution until global failure. The validity of this approach is established by considering the published test data and predictions for (1) strength of laminates under various off-axis loading, (2) strength of laminates with a hole under compression, and (3) strength of laminates with a hole under tension.

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Damage Progression in Buckle-Resistant Notched Composite Plates Loaded in Uniaxial Compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McGowan, David M.; Davila, Carlos G.; Ambur, Damodar R.

2001-01-01

Results of an experimental and analytical evaluation of damage progression in three stitched composite plates containing an angled central notch and subjected to compression loading are presented. Parametric studies were conducted systematically to identify the relative effects of the material strength parameters on damage initiation and growth. Comparisons with experiments were conducted to determine the appropriate in situ values of strengths for progressive failure analysis. These parametric studies indicated that the in situ value of the fiber buckling strength is the most important parameter in the prediction of damage initiation and growth in these notched composite plates. Analyses of the damage progression in the notched, compression-loaded plates were conducted using in situ material strengths. Comparisons of results obtained from these analyses with experimental results for displacements and axial strains show good agreement.

Nondestructive damage evaluation in ceramic matrix composites for aerospace applications.

PubMed

Dassios, Konstantinos G; Kordatos, Evangelos Z; Aggelis, Dimitrios G; Matikas, Theodore E

2013-01-01

Infrared thermography (IRT) and acoustic emission (AE) are the two major nondestructive methodologies for evaluating damage in ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) for aerospace applications. The two techniques are applied herein to assess and monitor damage formation and evolution in a SiC-fiber reinforced CMC loaded under cyclic and fatigue loading. The paper explains how IRT and AE can be used for the assessment of the material's performance under fatigue. IRT and AE parameters are specifically used for the characterization of the complex damage mechanisms that occur during CMC fracture, and they enable the identification of the micromechanical processes that control material failure, mainly crack formation and propagation. Additionally, these nondestructive parameters help in early prediction of the residual life of the material and in establishing the fatigue limit of materials rapidly and accurately.

Endothelial cell density to predict endothelial graft failure after penetrating keratoplasty.

PubMed

Lass, Jonathan H; Sugar, Alan; Benetz, Beth Ann; Beck, Roy W; Dontchev, Mariya; Gal, Robin L; Kollman, Craig; Gross, Robert; Heck, Ellen; Holland, Edward J; Mannis, Mark J; Raber, Irving; Stark, Walter; Stulting, R Doyle

2010-01-01

To determine whether preoperative and/or postoperative central endothelial cell density (ECD) and its rate of decline postoperatively are predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation following penetrating keratoplasty to treat a moderate-risk condition, principally, Fuchs dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema. In a subset of Cornea Donor Study participants, a central reading center determined preoperative and postoperative ECD from available specular images for 17 grafts that failed because of endothelial decompensation and 483 grafts that did not fail. Preoperative ECD was not predictive of graft failure caused by endothelial decompensation (P = .91). However, the 6-month ECD was predictive of subsequent failure (P < .001). Among those that had not failed within the first 6 months, the 5-year cumulative incidence (+/-95% confidence interval) of failure was 13% (+/-12%) for the 33 participants with a 6-month ECD of less than 1700 cells/mm(2) vs 2% (+/-3%) for the 137 participants with a 6-month ECD of 2500 cells/mm(2) or higher. After 5 years' follow-up, 40 of 277 participants (14%) with a clear graft had an ECD below 500 cells/mm(2). Preoperative ECD is unrelated to graft failure from endothelial decompensation, whereas there is a strong correlation of ECD at 6 months with graft failure from endothelial decompensation. A graft can remain clear after 5 years even when the ECD is below 500 cells/mm(2).

Patient characteristics as predictors of clinical outcome of distraction in treatment of severe ankle osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Marijnissen, A C A; Hoekstra, M C L; Pré, B C du; van Roermund, P M; van Melkebeek, J; Amendola, A; Maathuis, P; Lafeber, F P J G; Welsing, P M J

2014-01-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a slowly progressive joint disease. Joint distraction can be a treatment of choice in case of severe OA. Prediction of failure will facilitate implementation of joint distraction in clinical practice. Patients with severe ankle OA, who underwent joint distraction were included. Survival analysis was performed over 12 years (n = 25 after 12 years). Regression analyses were used to predict failures and clinical benefit at 2 years after joint distraction (n = 111). Survival analysis showed that 44% of the patients failed, 17% within 2 years and 37% within 5 years after joint distraction (n = 48 after 5 years). Survival analysis in subgroups showed that the percentage failure was only different in women (30% after 2 years) versus men (after 11 years still no 30% failure). In the multivariate analyses female gender was predictive for failure 2 years after joint distraction. Gender and functional disability at baseline predicted more pain. Functional disability and pain at baseline were associated with more functional disability. Joint distraction shows a long-term clinical beneficial outcome. However, failure rate is considerable over the years. Female patients have a higher chance of failure during follow-up. Unfortunately, not all potential predictors could be investigated and other clinically significant predictors were not found. © 2013 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Data-driven prognosis: a multi-physics approach verified via balloon burst experiment.

PubMed

Chandra, Abhijit; Kar, Oliva

2015-04-08

A multi-physics formulation for data-driven prognosis (DDP) is developed. Unlike traditional predictive strategies that require controlled offline measurements or 'training' for determination of constitutive parameters to derive the transitional statistics, the proposed DDP algorithm relies solely on in situ measurements. It uses a deterministic mechanics framework, but the stochastic nature of the solution arises naturally from the underlying assumptions regarding the order of the conservation potential as well as the number of dimensions involved. The proposed DDP scheme is capable of predicting onset of instabilities. Because the need for offline testing (or training) is obviated, it can be easily implemented for systems where such a priori testing is difficult or even impossible to conduct. The prognosis capability is demonstrated here via a balloon burst experiment where the instability is predicted using only online visual observations. The DDP scheme never failed to predict the incipient failure, and no false-positives were issued. The DDP algorithm is applicable to other types of datasets. Time horizons of DDP predictions can be adjusted by using memory over different time windows. Thus, a big dataset can be parsed in time to make a range of predictions over varying time horizons.

Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

2018-05-01

Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

The Effect of Stochastically Varying Creep Parameters on Residual Stresses in Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pineda, Evan J.; Mital, Subodh K.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

2015-01-01

Constituent properties, along with volume fraction, have a first order effect on the microscale fields within a composite material and influence the macroscopic response. Therefore, there is a need to assess the significance of stochastic variation in the constituent properties of composites at the higher scales. The effect of variability in the parameters controlling the time-dependent behavior, in a unidirectional SCS-6 SiC fiber-reinforced RBSN matrix composite lamina, on the residual stresses induced during processing is investigated numerically. The generalized method of cells micromechanics theory is utilized to model the ceramic matrix composite lamina using a repeating unit cell. The primary creep phases of the constituents are approximated using a Norton-Bailey, steady state, power law creep model. The effect of residual stresses on the proportional limit stress and strain to failure of the composite is demonstrated. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using a normal distribution for the power law parameters and the resulting residual stress distributions were predicted.

What must be the accuracy and target of optical sensor systems for patient monitoring?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Klaus H.; Kessler, Manfred D.

2002-06-01

Although the treatment in the intensive care unit has improved in recent years enabling greater surgical engagements and improving patients survival rate, no adequate monitoring is available in imminent severe pathological cases. Otherwise such kind of monitoring is necessary for early or prophylactic treatment in order to avoid or reduce the severity of the disease and protect the patient from sepsis or multiple organ failure. In these cases the common monitoring is limited, because clinical physiological and laboratory parameters indicate either the situation of macro-circulation or late disturbances of microcirculation, which arise previously on sub-cellular level. Optical sensor systems enable to reveal early variations in local capillary flow. The correlation between clinical parameters and changes in condition of oxygenation as a function of capillary flow disturbances is meaningful for the further treatment. The target should be to develop a predictive parameter, which is useful for detection and follow-up of changes in circulation.

Relationship of condom strength to failure during use.

PubMed

1980-10-01

Less-than-ideal environmental conditions, especially in developing countries with tropical or desert climates, prolonged storage times because of unpredictable supply and distribution, and inexperience with warehousing and logistics causing haphazard turnover of stocks can accelerate deterioration of condoms and render them unsuitable for use. As condom strength standards have never been related directly to failure during use, a Program for the Introduction and Adaptation of Contraceptive Technology (PIACT) study, in collaboration with Planned Parenthood of Seattle-King County, Washington, was conducted to determine the actual relationship between condom strength and failure during use (see July 1980 issue of Contraception). The study found that: 1) air burst test parameters can effectively and sensitively measure changes in condom strength; 2) condoms produced by Western industrial standards exceed by a wide margin the minimum strength required for effective use; and 3) stored condoms should not necessarily be thrown out if they are uniform in strength, even though they fall below accepted standards for new condoms. The study also brought out the issue of condom packaging. The potent deteriorating effect of ultraviolet light on condoms is well-known, and it is therefore suggested that condoms be packaged in foil or opaque laminates on both sides. A separate study requested by the U.S. Agency for International Development investigating the relationship between the 2 tests for condom strength (air burst standards as used in the PIACT study and tensile strength measurements) showed that air burst data and tensile strength parameters closely reflected the same characteristics, thus providing support for the use of air burst strength measurements for predicting useful life of stored condoms.

Problems with aging wiring in Naval aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Campbell, Frank J.

1994-01-01

The Navy is experiencing a severe aircraft electrical wiring maintenance problem as a result of the extensive use of an aromatic polyimide insulation that is deteriorating at a rate that was unexpected when this wire was initially selected. This problem has significantly affected readiness, reliability, and safety and has greatly increased the cost of ownership of Naval aircraft. Failures in wire harnesses have exhibited arcing and burning that will propagate drastically, to the interruption of many electrical circuits from a fault initiated by the failure of deteriorating wires. There is an urgent need for a capability to schedule aircraft rewiring in an orderly manner with a logically derived determination of which aircraft have aged to the point of absolute necessity. Excessive maintenance was demonstrated to result from the accelerated aging due to the parameters of moisture, temperature, and strain that exist in the Naval Aircraft environment. Laboratory studies have demonstrated that MIL-W-81381 wire insulation when aged at high humidities followed the classical Arrhenius thermal aging relationship. In an extension of the project a multifactor formula was developed that is now capable of predicting life under varying conditions of these service parameters. An automated test system has also been developed to analyze the degree of deterioration that has occurred in wires taken from an aircraft in order to obtain an assessment of remaining life. Since it is both physically and financially impossible to replace the wiring in all the Navy's aircraft at once, this system will permit expedient scheduling so that those aircraft that are most probable to have wiring failure problems can be overhauled first.

Predictive factors of tumor control and survival after radiosurgery for local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Chua, Daniel T T; Sham, Jonathan S T; Hung, Kwan-Ngai; Leung, Lucullus H T; Au, Gordon K H

2006-12-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery has been employed as a salvage treatment of local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). To identify patients that would benefit from radiosurgery, we reviewed our data with emphasis on factors that predicted treatment outcome. A total of 48 patients with local failures of NPC were treated by stereotactic radiosurgery between March 1996 and February 2005. Radiosurgery was administered using a modified linear accelerator with single or multiple isocenters to deliver a median dose of 12.5 Gy to the target periphery. Median follow-up was 54 months. Five-year local failure-free probability after radiosurgery was 47.2% and 5-year overall survival rate was 46.9%. Neuroendocrine complications occurred in 27% of patients but there were no treatment-related deaths. Time interval from primary radiotherapy, retreatment T stage, prior local failures and tumor volume were significant predictive factors of local control and/or survival whereas age was of marginal significance in predicting survival. A radiosurgery prognostic scoring system was designed based on these predictive factors. Five-year local failure-free probabilities in patients with good, intermediate and poor prognostic scores were 100%, 42.5%, and 9.6%. The corresponding five-year overall survival rates were 100%, 51.1%, and 0%. Important factors that predicted tumor control and survival after radiosurgery were identified. Patients with good prognostic score should be treated by radiosurgery in view of the excellent results. Patients with intermediate prognostic score may also be treated by radiosurgery but those with poor prognostic score should receive other salvage treatments.

Analysis of Discrete-Source Damage Progression in a Tensile Stiffened Composite Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, John T.; Lotts, Christine G.; Sleight, David W.

1999-01-01

This paper demonstrates the progressive failure analysis capability in NASA Langley s COMET-AR finite element analysis code on a large-scale built-up composite structure. A large-scale five stringer composite panel with a 7-in. long discrete source damage was analyzed from initial loading to final failure including the geometric and material nonlinearities. Predictions using different mesh sizes, different saw cut modeling approaches, and different failure criteria were performed and assessed. All failure predictions have a reasonably good correlation with the test result.

Usefulness of Electrocardiographic QT Interval to Predict Left Ventricular Diastolic Dysfunction

PubMed Central

Wilcox, Jane E.; Rosenberg, Jonathan; Vallakati, Ajay; Gheorghiade, Mihai; Shah, Sanjiv J.

2013-01-01

Whether a normal electrocardiogram excludes left ventricular (LV) diastolic dysfunction (DD) and whether electrocardiographic parameters are associated with DD is unknown. We therefore sought to investigate the relation between electrocardiographic parameters and DD. We first evaluated 75 consecutive patients referred for echocardiography for clinical suspicion of heart failure (phase 1). Electrocardiography and comprehensive echocardiography were performed on all patients and were analyzed separately in a blinded fashion. Receiver operating characteristic curves and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine which electrocardiographic parameters were most closely associated with DD. Next, we prospectively validated our results in 100 consecutive, unselected patients undergoing echocardiography (phase 2). In phase 1 of our study, the mean age was 59 ± 14 years, 41% were women, 31% had coronary disease, 53% had hypertension, and 25% had diabetes. The mean ejection fraction was 54 ± 15%, and 64% had DD. Of all the electrocardiographic parameters, the QTc interval was most closely associated with DD. QTc was inversely associated with E′ velocity (r = −0.54, p <0.0001), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for QTc as a predictor of DD was 0.82. QTc prolongation was independently associated with reduced E′ velocity (p = 0.021 after adjustment for age, gender, medications, QRS duration, and ejection fraction). In phase 2 of our study QTc was the electrocardiographic parameter most associated with reduced E′ velocity (435 ± 31 vs 419 ± 24 ms; p = 0.004), confirming our phase 1 study findings. In conclusion, QTc prolongation was the electrocardiographic marker most predictive of DD and was independently associated with DD. PMID:21907948

Failure Pressure and Leak Rate of Steam Generator Tubes With Stress Corrosion Cracks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.; Kasza, K.; Park, J.Y.

2002-07-01

This paper illustrates the use of an 'equivalent rectangular crack' approach to predict leak rates through laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks. A comparison between predicted and observed test data on rupture and leak rate from laboratory generated stress corrosion cracks are provided. Specimen flaws were sized by post-test fractography in addition to pre-test advanced eddy current technique. The test failure pressures and leak rates are shown to be closer to those predicted on the basis of fractography than on NDE. However, the predictions based on NDE results are encouraging, particularly because they have the potential to determine a more detailedmore » geometry of ligamentous cracks from which more accurate predictions of failure pressure and leak rate can be made in the future. (authors)« less

Characterization of elastic-plastic properties of AS4/APC-2 thermoplastic composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, C. T.; Yoon, K. J.

1988-01-01

Elastic and inelastic properties of AS4/APC-2 composites were characterized with respect to temperature variation by using a one-parameter orthotropic plasticity model and a one parameter failure criterion. Simple uniaxial off-axis tension tests were performed on coupon specimens of unidirectional AS4/APC-2 thermoplastic composite at various temperatures. To avoid the complication caused by the extension-shear coupling effect in off-axis testing, new tabs were designed and used on the test specimens. The experimental results showed that the nonlinear behavior of constitutive relations and the failure strengths can be characterized quite well using the one parameter plasticity model and the failure criterion, respectively.

Adolescent inhalant abuse leads to other drug use and impaired growth; implications for diagnosis.

PubMed

Crossin, Rose; Cairney, Sheree; Lawrence, Andrew J; Duncan, Jhodie R

2017-02-01

Abuse of inhalants containing the volatile solvent toluene is a significant public health issue, especially for adolescent and Indigenous communities. Adolescent inhalant abuse can lead to chronic health issues and may initiate a trajectory towards further drug use. Identification of at-risk individuals is difficult and diagnostic tools are limited primarily to measurement of serum toluene. Our objective was to identify the effects of adolescent inhalant abuse on subsequent drug use and growth parameters, and to test the predictive power of growth parameters as a diagnostic measure for inhalant abuse. We retrospectively analysed drug use and growth data from 118 Indigenous males; 86 chronically sniffed petrol as adolescents. Petrol sniffing was the earliest drug used (mean 13 years) and increased the likelihood and earlier use of other drugs. Petrol sniffing significantly impaired height and weight and was associated with meeting 'failure to thrive' criteria; growth diagnostically out-performed serum toluene. Adolescent inhalant abuse increases the risk for subsequent and earlier drug use. It also impairs growth such that individuals meet 'failure to thrive' criteria, representing an improved diagnostic model for inhalant abuse. Implications for Public Health: Improved diagnosis of adolescent inhalant abuse may lead to earlier detection and enhanced health outcomes. © 2016 The Authors.

NIV-Helmet in Severe Hypoxemic Acute Respiratory Failure.

PubMed

Martins, Joana; Nunes, P; Silvestre, C; Abadesso, C; Loureiro, H; Almeida, H

2015-01-01

Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is a method to be applied in acute respiratory failure, given the possibility of avoiding tracheal intubation and conventional ventilation. A previous healthy 5-month-old boy developed low-grade intermittent fever, flu-like symptoms, and dry cough for 3 days. On admission, he showed severe respiratory distress with SpO2/FiO2 ratio of 94. Subsequent evaluation identified an RSV infection complicated with an increase of inflammatory parameters (reactive C protein 15 mg/dL). Within the first hour after NIV-helmet CPAP SpO2/FiO2 ratio increased to 157. This sustained improvement allowed the continuing of this strategy. After 102 h, he was disconnected from the helmet CPAP device. The NIV use in severe hypoxemic acute respiratory failure should be carefully monitored as the absence of clinical improvement has a predictive value in the need to resume to intubation and mechanical ventilation. We emphasize that SpO2/FiO2 ratio is a valuable monitoring instrument. Helmet interface use represents a more comfortable alternative for providing ventilatory support, particularly to small infants, which constitute a sensitive group within pediatric patients.

A Framework for Debugging Geoscience Projects in a High Performance Computing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baxter, C.; Matott, L.

2012-12-01

High performance computing (HPC) infrastructure has become ubiquitous in today's world with the emergence of commercial cloud computing and academic supercomputing centers. Teams of geoscientists, hydrologists and engineers can take advantage of this infrastructure to undertake large research projects - for example, linking one or more site-specific environmental models with soft computing algorithms, such as heuristic global search procedures, to perform parameter estimation and predictive uncertainty analysis, and/or design least-cost remediation systems. However, the size, complexity and distributed nature of these projects can make identifying failures in the associated numerical experiments using conventional ad-hoc approaches both time- consuming and ineffective. To address these problems a multi-tiered debugging framework has been developed. The framework allows for quickly isolating and remedying a number of potential experimental failures, including: failures in the HPC scheduler; bugs in the soft computing code; bugs in the modeling code; and permissions and access control errors. The utility of the framework is demonstrated via application to a series of over 200,000 numerical experiments involving a suite of 5 heuristic global search algorithms and 15 mathematical test functions serving as cheap analogues for the simulation-based optimization of pump-and-treat subsurface remediation systems.

European Society of Cardiology - Acute Cardiovascular Care Association position paper on safe discharge of acute heart failure patients from the emergency department.

PubMed

Miró, Òscar; Peacock, Frank W; McMurray, John J; Bueno, Héctor; Christ, Michael; Maisel, Alan S; Cullen, Louise; Cowie, Martin R; Di Somma, Salvatore; Martín Sánchez, Francisco J; Platz, Elke; Masip, Josep; Zeymer, Uwe; Vrints, Christiaan; Price, Susanna; Mebazaa, Alexander; Mueller, Christian

2017-06-01

Heart failure is a global public health challenge frequently presenting to the emergency department. After initial stabilization and management, one of the most important decisions is to determine which patients can be safely discharged and which require hospitalization. This is a complex decision that depends on numerous subjective factors, including both the severity of the patient's underlying condition and an estimate of the acuity of the presentation. An emergency department observation period may help select the correct option. Ideally, during an observation period, risk stratification should be carried out using parameters specifically designed for use in the emergency department. Unfortunately, there is little objective literature to guide this disposition decision. An objective and reliable definition of low-risk characteristics to identify early discharge candidates is needed. Benchmarking outcomes in patients discharged from the emergency department without hospitalization could aid this process. Biomarker determinations, although undoubtedly useful in establishing diagnosis and predicting longer-term prognosis, require prospective validation for emergency department disposition guidance. The challenge of identifying emergency department acute heart failure discharge candidates will only be overcome by future multidisciplinary research defining the current knowledge gaps and identifying potential solutions.

Apparatus for sensor failure detection and correction in a gas turbine engine control system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spang, H. A., III; Wanger, R. P. (Inventor)

1981-01-01

A gas turbine engine control system maintains a selected level of engine performance despite the failure or abnormal operation of one or more engine parameter sensors. The control system employs a continuously updated engine model which simulates engine performance and generates signals representing real time estimates of the engine parameter sensor signals. The estimate signals are transmitted to a control computational unit which utilizes them in lieu of the actual engine parameter sensor signals to control the operation of the engine. The estimate signals are also compared with the corresponding actual engine parameter sensor signals and the resulting difference signals are utilized to update the engine model. If a particular difference signal exceeds specific tolerance limits, the difference signal is inhibited from updating the model and a sensor failure indication is provided to the engine operator.

An Experimental Study of Incremental Surface Loading of an Elastic Plate: Application to Volcano Tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, K. K.; Zuber, M. T.

1995-01-01

Models of surface fractures due to volcanic loading an elastic plate are commonly used to constrain thickness of planetary lithospheres, but discrepancies exist in predictions of the style of initial failure and in the nature of subsequent fracture evolution. In this study, we perform an experiment to determine the mode of initial failure due to the incremental addition of a conical load to the surface of an elastic plate and compare the location of initial failure with that predicted by elastic theory. In all experiments, the mode of initial failure was tension cracking at the surface of the plate, with cracks oriented circumferential to the load. The cracks nucleated at a distance from load center that corresponds the maximum radial stress predicted by analytical solutions, so a tensile failure criterion is appropriate for predictions of initial failure. With continued loading of the plate, migration of tensional cracks was observed. In the same azimuthal direction as the initial crack, subsequent cracks formed at a smaller radial distance than the initial crack. When forming in a different azimuthal direction, the subsequent cracks formed at a distance greater than the radial distance of the initial crack. The observed fracture pattern may explain the distribution of extensional structures in annular bands around many large scale, circular volcanic features.

Accelerated fatigue durability of a high performance composite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rotem, A.

1982-01-01

The fatigue behavior of multidirectional graphite-epoxy laminates was analyzed theoretically and experimentally in an effort to establish an accelerated testing methodology. Analysis of the failure mechanism in fatigue of the laminates led to the determination of the failure mode governing fracture. The nonlinear, cyclic-dependent shear modulus was used to calculate the changing stress field in the laminate during the fatigue loading. Fatigue tests were performed at three different temperatures: 25 C, 74 C, and 114 C. The prediction of the S-N curves was made based on the artificial static strength artificial static strength at a reference temperature and the fatigue functions associated with them. The prediction of an S-N curve at other temperatures was performed using shifting factors determined for the specific failure mode. For multidirectional laminates, different S-N curves at different temperatures could be predicted using these shifting factors. Different S-N curves at different temperatures occur only when the fatigue failure mode is matrix dominated. It was found that whenever the fatigue failure mode is fiber dominated, temperature, over the range investigated, had no influence on the fatigue life. These results permit the prediction of long-time, low temperature fatigue behavior from data obtained in short time, high temperature testing, for laminates governed by a matrix failure mode.

Automatic Tube Compensation versus Pressure Support Ventilation and Extubation Outcome in Children: A Randomized Controlled Study

PubMed Central

El-beleidy, Ahmed Saad El-din; Khattab, Asser Abd EL-Hamied; El-Sherbini, Seham Awad; Al-gebaly, Hebatalla Fadel

2013-01-01

Background. Automatic tube compensation (ATC) has been developed to overcome the imposed work of breathing due to artificial airways during spontaneous breathing trials (SBTs). Objectives. This study aimed to assess extubation outcome after an SBT (spontaneous breathing trial) with ATC compared with pressure support ventilation (PSV) and to determine the risk factors for extubation failure. Methods. Patients ready for extubation were randomly assigned to two-hour spontaneous breathing trial with either ATC or pressure support ventilation. Results. In the ATC group (n = 17), 11 (65%) patients passed the SBT with subsequent extubation failure (9%). While in PSV group (n = 19), 10 (53%) patients passed the SBT with subsequent extubation failure (10%). This represented a positive predictive value for ATC of 91% and PSV of 90% (P = 0.52). Five (83%) of the patients who failed the SBT in ATC group were reintubated. This represented a higher negative predictive value for ATC of 83% than for PSV which was 56%. None of the assessed risk factors were independently associated with extubation failure including failed trial. Conclusion. ATC was equivalent to PSV in predicting patients with successful extubation. A trial failure in ATC group is associated with but does not definitely predict extubation failure. PMID:23533800

Is it possible to predict office hysteroscopy failure?

PubMed

Cobellis, Luigi; Castaldi, Maria Antonietta; Giordano, Valentino; De Franciscis, Pasquale; Signoriello, Giuseppe; Colacurci, Nicola

2014-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a clinical tool, the HFI (Hysteroscopy Failure Index), which gives criteria to predict hysteroscopic examination failure. This was a retrospective diagnostic test study, aimed to validate the HFI, set at the Department of Gynaecology, Obstetric and Reproductive Science of the Second University of Naples, Italy. The HFI was applied to our database of 995 consecutive women, who underwent office based to assess abnormal uterine bleeding (AUB), infertility, cervical polyps, and abnormal sonographic patterns (postmenopausal endometrial thickness of more than 5mm, endometrial hyperechogenic spots, irregular endometrial line, suspect of uterine septa). Demographic characteristics, previous surgery, recurrent infections, sonographic data, Estro-Progestins, IUD and menopausal status were collected. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to assess the ability of the model to identify patients who were correctly identified (true positives) divided by the total number of failed hysteroscopies (true positives+false negatives). Positive and Negative Likelihood Ratios with 95%CI were calculated. The HFI score is able to predict office hysteroscopy failure in 76% of cases. Moreover, the Positive likelihood ratio was 11.37 (95% CI: 8.49-15.21), and the Negative likelihood ratio was 0.33 (95% CI: 0.27-0.41). Hysteroscopy failure index was able to retrospectively predict office hysteroscopy failure. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sequential assimilation of volcanic monitoring data to quantify eruption potential: Application to Kerinci volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Yan; Gregg, Patricia M.; Chaussard, Estelle; Aoki, Yosuke

2017-12-01

Quantifying the eruption potential of a restless volcano requires the ability to model parameters such as overpressure and calculate the host rock stress state as the system evolves. A critical challenge is developing a model-data fusion framework to take advantage of observational data and provide updates of the volcanic system through time. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) uses a Monte Carlo approach to assimilate volcanic monitoring data and update models of volcanic unrest, providing time-varying estimates of overpressure and stress. Although the EnKF has been proven effective to forecast volcanic deformation using synthetic InSAR and GPS data, until now, it has not been applied to assimilate data from an active volcanic system. In this investigation, the EnKF is used to provide a “hindcast” of the 2009 explosive eruption of Kerinci volcano, Indonesia. A two-sources analytical model is used to simulate the surface deformation of Kerinci volcano observed by InSAR time-series data and to predict the system evolution. A deep, deflating dike-like source reproduces the subsiding signal on the flanks of the volcano, and a shallow spherical McTigue source reproduces the central uplift. EnKF predicted parameters are used in finite element models to calculate the host-rock stress state prior to the 2009 eruption. Mohr-Coulomb failure models reveal that the shallow magma reservoir is trending towards tensile failure prior to 2009, which may be the catalyst for the 2009 eruption. Our results illustrate that the EnKF shows significant promise for future applications to forecasting the eruption potential of restless volcanoes and hind-cast the triggering mechanisms of observed eruptions.

Resistive index and chronic allograft nephropathy evaluated in protocol biopsies as predictors of graft outcome.

PubMed

Vallejos, Augusto; Alperovich, Gabriela; Moreso, Francesc; Cañas, Concepcion; de Lama, M Eugenia; Gomà, Montserrat; Fulladosa, Xavier; Carrera, Marta; Hueso, Miguel; Grinyó, Josep M; Serón, Daniel

2005-11-01

The presence of chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN) in protocol biopsies is negatively associated with graft survival. Although recent studies have indicated that the resistive index (RI) is a predictor of graft failure, it does not correlate with CAN in stable grafts. We therefore studied the relationship between RI and CAN and examined the predictive value of both parameters on graft outcome. Included were patients transplanted between 1997 and 2002 and who had protocol biopsies and RI determinations. Renal lesions were blindly evaluated according to Banff 97 criteria. Mean glomerular volume, cortical interstitial volume fraction and intimal arterial volume fraction were estimated using a point counting technique. RI was determined before biopsy in at least two different renal locations. The outcome variable was defined as graft failure or a 30% serum creatinine increase between protocol biopsy and last follow-up. Eighty-seven patients were included. RI correlated with recipient age (R = 0.52, P < 0.0001), diastolic blood pressure (R = -0.36, P = 0.0006), pulse pressure index (R = 0.27, P = 0.009) and g-score for histological glomerulitis (rho = 0.30, P = 0.0054), but there were no correlations between RI and chronic Banff scores or any morphometric parameter. The presence of CAN (relative risk, 3.5; 95% confidence interval 1.2-10.2; P = 0.02) but not RI was associated with the outcome variable. RI was associated with surrogate measures of vascular compliance such as recipient age and pulse pressure index but not with chronic allograft damage, even when it was evaluated by histomorphometry. Our results indicate that histology may be superior to RI in predicting graft function deterioration, at least in patients with stable renal function.

Model-Biased, Data-Driven Adaptive Failure Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leen, Todd K.

2004-01-01

This final report, which contains a research summary and a viewgraph presentation, addresses clustering and data simulation techniques for failure prediction. The researchers applied their techniques to both helicopter gearbox anomaly detection and segmentation of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite imagery.

Predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion for managing malignant ureteral obstruction in outpatients

PubMed Central

WANG, JIN-YOU; ZHANG, HAI-LIANG; ZHU, YAO; QIN, XIAO-JIAN; DAI, BO; YE, DING-WEI

2016-01-01

Malignant ureteral obstruction (MUO) is an unpropitious sign that is commonly observed in patients with advanced incurable cancer. The present study aimed to evaluate predictive factors for the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion in the management of MUO in outpatients. A total of 164 patients with MUO were retrospectively assessed in this study. Clinical factors, including age, gender, type of malignancy, level of obstruction, cause of obstruction, pre-operative creatinine level, degree of hydronephrosis, condition of the contralateral ureter, prior radiotherapy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS), bladder wall invasion and technical failure, were recorded for each case. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to investigate the risk factors for predicting the failure of retrograde ureteral stent insertion. In total, 38 out of 164 patients experienced bilateral obstruction, therefore, a total of 202 ureteral units were available for data analysis. The rate of insertion failure in MUO was 34.65%. Multivariate analyses identified ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder wall invasion as independent predictors for insertion failure. Overall, the present study found that rate of retrograde ureteral stent insertion failure is high in outpatients with MUO, and that ECOG PS, degree of hydronephrosis and bladder invasion are potential independent predictors of insertion failure. PMID:26870299

Modeling Common Cause Failures of Thrusters on ISS Visiting Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haught, Megan

2014-01-01

This paper discusses the methodology used to model common cause failures of thrusters on the International Space Station (ISS) Visiting Vehicles. The ISS Visiting Vehicles each have as many as 32 thrusters, whose redundancy makes them susceptible to common cause failures. The Global Alpha Model (as described in NUREG/CR-5485) can be used to represent the system common cause contribution, but NUREG/CR-5496 supplies global alpha parameters for groups only up to size six. Because of the large number of redundant thrusters on each vehicle, regression is used to determine parameter values for groups of size larger than six. An additional challenge is that Visiting Vehicle thruster failures must occur in specific combinations in order to fail the propulsion system; not all failure groups of a certain size are critical.

Prediction of mode of death in heart failure: the Seattle Heart Failure Model.

PubMed

Mozaffarian, Dariush; Anker, Stefan D; Anand, Inder; Linker, David T; Sullivan, Mark D; Cleland, John G F; Carson, Peter E; Maggioni, Aldo P; Mann, Douglas L; Pitt, Bertram; Poole-Wilson, Philip A; Levy, Wayne C

2007-07-24

Prognosis and mode of death in heart failure patients are highly variable in that some patients die suddenly (often from ventricular arrhythmia) and others die of progressive failure of cardiac function (pump failure). Prediction of mode of death may facilitate decisions about specific medications or devices. We used the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), a validated prediction model for total mortality in heart failure, to assess the mode of death in 10,538 ambulatory patients with New York Heart Association class II to IV heart failure and predominantly systolic dysfunction enrolled in 6 randomized trials or registries. During 16,735 person-years of follow-up, 2014 deaths occurred, which included 1014 sudden deaths and 684 pump-failure deaths. Compared with a SHFM score of 0, patients with a score of 1 had a 50% higher risk of sudden death, patients with a score of 2 had a nearly 3-fold higher risk, and patients with a score of 3 or 4 had a nearly 7-fold higher risk (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.68). Stratification of risk of pump-failure death was even more pronounced, with a 4-fold higher risk with a score of 1, a 15-fold higher risk with a score of 2, a 38-fold higher risk with a score of 3, and an 88-fold higher risk with a score of 4 (P<0.001 for all comparisons; 1-year area under the receiver operating curve, 0.85). The proportion of deaths caused by sudden death versus pump-failure death decreased from a ratio of 7:1 with a SHFM score of 0 to a ratio of 1:2 with a SHFM score of 4 (P trend <0.001). The SHFM score provides information about the likely mode of death among ambulatory heart failure patients. Investigation is warranted to determine whether such information might predict responses to or cost-effectiveness of specific medications or devices in heart failure patients.

Mathematical modeling of prostate cancer progression in response to androgen ablation therapy.

PubMed

Jain, Harsh Vardhan; Clinton, Steven K; Bhinder, Arvinder; Friedman, Avner

2011-12-06

Prostate cancer progression depends in part on the complex interactions between testosterone, its active metabolite DHT, and androgen receptors. In a metastatic setting, the first line of treatment is the elimination of testosterone. However, such interventions are not curative because cancer cells evolve via multiple mechanisms to a castrate-resistant state, allowing progression to a lethal outcome. It is hypothesized that administration of antiandrogen therapy in an intermittent, as opposed to continuous, manner may bestow improved disease control with fewer treatment-related toxicities. The present study develops a biochemically motivated mathematical model of antiandrogen therapy that can be tested prospectively as a predictive tool. The model includes "personalized" parameters, which address the heterogeneity in the predicted course of the disease under various androgen-deprivation schedules. Model simulations are able to capture a variety of clinically observed outcomes for "average" patient data under different intermittent schedules. The model predicts that in the absence of a competitive advantage of androgen-dependent cancer cells over castration-resistant cancer cells, intermittent scheduling can lead to more rapid treatment failure as compared to continuous treatment. However, increasing a competitive advantage for hormone-sensitive cells swings the balance in favor of intermittent scheduling, delaying the acquisition of genetic or epigenetic alterations empowering androgen resistance. Given the near universal prevalence of antiandrogen treatment failure in the absence of competing mortality, such modeling has the potential of developing into a useful tool for incorporation into clinical research trials and ultimately as a prognostic tool for individual patients.

Meso-Scale Progressive Damage Behavior Characterization of Triaxial Braided Composites under Quasi-Static Tensile Load

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yiru; Zhang, Songjun; Jiang, Hongyong; Xiang, Jinwu

2018-04-01

Based on continuum damage mechanics (CDM), a sophisticated 3D meso-scale finite element (FE) model is proposed to characterize the progressive damage behavior of 2D Triaxial Braided Composites (2DTBC) with 60° braiding angle under quasi-static tensile load. The modified Von Mises strength criterion and 3D Hashin failure criterion are used to predict the damage initiation of the pure matrix and fiber tows. A combining interface damage and friction constitutive model is applied to predict the interface damage behavior. Murakami-Ohno stiffness degradation scheme is employed to predict the damage evolution process of each constituent. Coupling with the ordinary and translational symmetry boundary conditions, the tensile elastic response including tensile strength and failure strain of 2DTBC are in good agreement with the available experiment data. The numerical results show that the main failure modes of the composites under axial tensile load are pure matrix cracking, fiber and matrix tension failure in bias fiber tows, matrix tension failure in axial fiber tows and interface debonding; the main failure modes of the composites subjected to transverse tensile load are free-edge effect, matrix tension failure in bias fiber tows and interface debonding.

Health-related quality-of-life parameters as independent prognostic factors in advanced or metastatic bladder cancer.

PubMed

Roychowdhury, D F; Hayden, A; Liepa, A M

2003-02-15

This retrospective analysis examined prognostic significance of health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) parameters combined with baseline clinical factors on outcomes (overall survival, time to progressive disease, and time to treatment failure) in bladder cancer. Outcome and HRQoL (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C30) data were collected prospectively in a phase III study assessing gemcitabine and cisplatin versus methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin in locally advanced or metastatic bladder cancer. Prespecified baseline clinical factors (performance status, tumor-node-metastasis staging, visceral metastases [VM], alkaline phosphatase [AP] level, number of metastatic sites, prior radiotherapy, disease measurability, sex, time from diagnosis, and sites of disease) and selected HRQoL parameters (global QoL; all functional scales; symptoms: pain, fatigue, insomnia, dyspnea, anorexia) were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazards model. Factors with individual prognostic value (P <.05) on outcomes in univariate models were assessed for joint prognostic value in a multivariate model. A final model was developed using a backward selection strategy. Patients with baseline HRQoL were included (364 of 405, 90%). The final model predicted longer survival with low/normal AP levels, no VM, high physical functioning, low role functioning, and no anorexia. Positive prognostic factors for time to progressive disease were good performance status, low/normal AP levels, no VM, and minimal fatigue; for time to treatment failure, they were low/normal AP levels, minimal fatigue, and no anorexia. Global QoL was a significant predictor of outcome in univariate analyses but was not retained in the multivariate model. HRQoL parameters are independent prognostic factors for outcome in advanced bladder cancer; their prognostic importance needs further evaluation.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lall, Pradeep; Wei, Junchao; Sakalaukus, Peter

A new method has been developed for assessment of the onset of degradation in solid state luminaires to classify failure mechanisms by using metrics beyond lumen degradation that are currently used for identification of failure. Luminous Flux output, Correlated Color Temperature Data on Philips LED Lamps has been gathered under 85°C/85%RH till lamp failure. Failure modes of the test population of the lamps have been studied to understand the failure mechanisms in 85°C/85%RH accelerated test. Results indicate that the dominant failure mechanism is the discoloration of the LED encapsulant inside the lamps which is the likely cause for the luminousmore » flux degradation and the color shift. The acquired data has been used in conjunction with Bayesian Probabilistic Models to identify luminaires with onset of degradation much prior to failure through identification of decision boundaries between lamps with accrued damage and lamps beyond the failure threshold in the feature space. In addition luminaires with different failure modes have been classified separately from healthy pristine luminaires. The α-λ plots have been used to evaluate the robustness of the proposed methodology. Results show that the predicted degradation for the lamps tracks the true degradation observed during 85°C/85%RH during accelerated life test fairly closely within the ±20% confidence bounds. Correlation of model prediction with experimental results indicates that the presented methodology allows the early identification of the onset of failure much prior to development of complete failure distributions and can be used for assessing the damage state of SSLs in fairly large deployments. It is expected that, the new prediction technique will allow the development of failure distributions without testing till L70 life for the manifestation of failure.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dana L. Kelly

Typical engineering systems in applications with high failure consequences such as nuclear reactor plants often employ redundancy and diversity of equipment in an effort to lower the probability of failure and therefore risk. However, it has long been recognized that dependencies exist in these redundant and diverse systems. Some dependencies, such as common sources of electrical power, are typically captured in the logic structure of the risk model. Others, usually referred to as intercomponent dependencies, are treated implicitly by introducing one or more statistical parameters into the model. Such common-cause failure models have limitations in a simulation environment. In addition,more » substantial subjectivity is associated with parameter estimation for these models. This paper describes an approach in which system performance is simulated by drawing samples from the joint distributions of dependent variables. The approach relies on the notion of a copula distribution, a notion which has been employed by the actuarial community for ten years or more, but which has seen only limited application in technological risk assessment. The paper also illustrates how equipment failure data can be used in a Bayesian framework to estimate the parameter values in the copula model. This approach avoids much of the subjectivity required to estimate parameters in traditional common-cause failure models. Simulation examples are presented for failures in time. The open-source software package R is used to perform the simulations. The open-source software package WinBUGS is used to perform the Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.« less

Limited improvement of incorporating primary circulating prostate cells with the CAPRA score to predict biochemical failure-free outcome of radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Murray, Nigel P; Aedo, Socrates; Fuentealba, Cynthia; Jacob, Omar; Reyes, Eduardo; Novoa, Camilo; Orellana, Sebastian; Orellana, Nelson

2016-10-01

To establish a prediction model for early biochemical failure based on the Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score, the presence or absence of primary circulating prostate cells (CPC) and the number of primary CPC (nCPC)/8ml blood sample is detected before surgery. A prospective single-center study of men who underwent radical prostatectomy as monotherapy for prostate cancer. Clinical-pathological findings were used to calculate the CAPRA score. Before surgery blood was taken for CPC detection, mononuclear cells were obtained using differential gel centrifugation, and CPCs identified using immunocytochemistry. A CPC was defined as a cell expressing prostate-specific antigen and P504S, and the presence or absence of CPCs and the number of cells detected/8ml blood sample was registered. Patients were followed up for up to 5 years; biochemical failure was defined as a prostate-specific antigen>0.2ng/ml. The validity of the CAPRA score was calibrated using partial validation, and the fractional polynomial Cox proportional hazard regression was used to build 3 models, which underwent a decision analysis curve to determine the predictive value of the 3 models with respect to biochemical failure. A total of 267 men participated, mean age 65.80 years, and after 5 years of follow-up the biochemical-free survival was 67.42%. The model using CAPRA score showed a hazards ratio (HR) of 5.76 between low and high-risk groups, that of CPC with a HR of 26.84 between positive and negative groups, and the combined model showed a HR of 4.16 for CAPRA score and 19.93 for CPC. Using the continuous variable nCPC, there was no improvement in the predictive value of the model compared with the model using a positive-negative result of CPC detection. The combined CAPRA-nCPC model showed an improvement of the predictive performance for biochemical failure using the Harrell׳s C concordance test and a net benefit on DCA in comparison with either model used separately. The use of primary CPC as a predictive factor based on their presence or absence did not predict aggressive disease or biochemical failure. Although the use of a combined CAPRA-nCPC model improves the prediction of biochemical failure in patients undergoing radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, this is minimal. The use of the presence or absence of primary CPCs alone did not predict aggressive disease or biochemical failure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Early prognostic markers for fatal fulminant hepatic failure cases with viral hepatitis: proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic studies of serum.

PubMed

Bala, Lakshmi; Mehrotra, Mayank; Mohindra, Samir; Saxena, Rajan; Khetrapal, Chunni Lal

2013-02-01

Fulminant hepatic failure is associated with liver metabolic derangements which could have fatal consequences. The aim of the present study is to identify serum markers for early prediction of the outcome. Proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic studies of serum of fulminant hepatic failure patients due to viral hepatitis with grade II/III of encephalopathy (twenty-four: ten prospective and fourteen retrospective) and twenty-five controls were undertaken. Of the twenty-four patients, fifteen survived with medical management alone while nine had fatal outcome. The results demonstrated significantly elevated indices of amino acids (alanine, lysine, glutamine, histidine, tyrosine, phenylalanine and 1,2-propanediol) in fatal cases compared to survivors and controls. Principal component analysis showed clear separation of fatal and surviving cases. Liver function parameters were significantly deranged in patients but they failed to provide early significant differences between surviving and fatal cases. Compared to model for end-stage liver disease scores, principal component analysis appear to be better as an early prognostic indicator. Biochemical mapping of pathways suggested interruptions in amino acid metabolism and urea cycle. Proton nuclear magnetic resonance studies of serum have the potential of rapidly identifying patients with irreversible fulminant hepatic failure requiring liver transplantation as life saving option. Copyright © 2012 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Wireless Sensor Networks and Trains as Data Mules to Monitor Slab Track Infrastructures.

PubMed

Cañete, Eduardo; Chen, Jaime; Díaz, Manuel; Llopis, Luis; Reyna, Ana; Rubio, Bartolomé

2015-06-26

Recently, slab track systems have arisen as a safer and more sustainable option for high speed railway infrastructures, compared to traditional ballasted tracks. Integrating Wireless Sensor Networks within these infrastructures can provide structural health related data that can be used to evaluate their degradation and to not only detect failures but also to predict them. The design of such systems has to deal with a scenario of large areas with inaccessible zones, where neither Internet coverage nor electricity supply is guaranteed. In this paper we propose a monitoring system for slab track systems that measures vibrations and displacements in the track. Collected data is transmitted to passing trains, which are used as data mules to upload the information to a remote control center. On arrival at the station, the data is stored in a database, which is queried by an application in order to detect and predict failures. In this paper, different communication architectures are designed and tested to select the most suitable system meeting such requirements as efficiency, low cost and data accuracy. In addition, to ensure communication between the sensing devices and the train, the communication system must take into account parameters such as train speed, antenna coverage, band and frequency.

Using Wireless Sensor Networks and Trains as Data Mules to Monitor Slab Track Infrastructures

PubMed Central

Cañete, Eduardo; Chen, Jaime; Díaz, Manuel; Llopis, Luis; Reyna, Ana; Rubio, Bartolomé

2015-01-01

Recently, slab track systems have arisen as a safer and more sustainable option for high speed railway infrastructures, compared to traditional ballasted tracks. Integrating Wireless Sensor Networks within these infrastructures can provide structural health related data that can be used to evaluate their degradation and to not only detect failures but also to predict them. The design of such systems has to deal with a scenario of large areas with inaccessible zones, where neither Internet coverage nor electricity supply is guaranteed. In this paper we propose a monitoring system for slab track systems that measures vibrations and displacements in the track. Collected data is transmitted to passing trains, which are used as data mules to upload the information to a remote control center. On arrival at the station, the data is stored in a database, which is queried by an application in order to detect and predict failures. In this paper, different communication architectures are designed and tested to select the most suitable system meeting such requirements as efficiency, low cost and data accuracy. In addition, to ensure communication between the sensing devices and the train, the communication system must take into account parameters such as train speed, antenna coverage, band and frequency. PMID:26131668

A Comparative Study of Classification and Regression Algorithms for Modelling Students' Academic Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strecht, Pedro; Cruz, Luís; Soares, Carlos; Mendes-Moreira, João; Abreu, Rui

2015-01-01

Predicting the success or failure of a student in a course or program is a problem that has recently been addressed using data mining techniques. In this paper we evaluate some of the most popular classification and regression algorithms on this problem. We address two problems: prediction of approval/failure and prediction of grade. The former is…

Global Alignment and Proportion (GAP) Score: Development and Validation of a New Method of Analyzing Spinopelvic Alignment to Predict Mechanical Complications After Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery.

PubMed

Yilgor, Caglar; Sogunmez, Nuray; Boissiere, Louis; Yavuz, Yasemin; Obeid, Ibrahim; Kleinstück, Frank; Pérez-Grueso, Francisco Javier Sánchez; Acaroglu, Emre; Haddad, Sleiman; Mannion, Anne F; Pellise, Ferran; Alanay, Ahmet

2017-10-04

The restoration of normal sagittal alignment is a critical goal in adult spinal deformity surgery to achieve favorable outcomes and prevent mechanical complications. Schwab sagittal modifiers have been accepted as targets for appropriate alignment, but addressing these targets does not always prevent high mechanical complication or revision rates. This may be because the linear absolute numerical parameters do not cover the whole pelvic incidence spectrum and the distribution of lordosis, pelvic anteversion, and negative malalignment are not considered as potential causes of failure. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a score based on pelvic-incidence-based proportional parameters to better predict mechanical complications. Two hundred and twenty-two patients (168 women and 54 men) followed for ≥2 years after posterior fusion at ≥4 levels were included in the study. The mean age (and standard deviation) was 52.2 ± 19.3 years (range, 18 to 84 years), and the mean duration of follow-up was 28.8 ± 8.2 months (range, 24 to 62 months). The global alignment and proportion (GAP) score was developed and validated in groups of patients randomly assigned to derivation (n = 148, 66.7%) and validation (n = 74, 33.3%) cohorts. GAP score parameters were relative pelvic version (the measured minus the ideal sacral slope), relative lumbar lordosis (the measured minus the ideal lumbar lordosis), lordosis distribution index (the L4-S1 lordosis divided by the L1-S1 lordosis multiplied by 100), relative spinopelvic alignment (the measured minus the ideal global tilt), and an age factor. Proximal and distal junctional kyphosis and/or failure, rod breakage, and other implant-related complications were considered mechanical complications. The predictive accuracy of the GAP score was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. Associations between GAP categories and mechanical complications and revisions were analyzed using Cochran-Armitage tests. In the validation cohort, 32 patients (43%) experienced mechanical complications and 17 (23%) underwent mechanical revision. The area under curve for the GAP score predicting mechanical complications was 0.92 (standard error [SE] = 0.034, p < 0.001, 95% [confidence interval [CI] = 0.85 to 0.98). Postoperatively, patients with a proportioned spinopelvic state according to the GAP score had a mechanical complication rate of 6% while those with a moderately or severely disproportioned spinopelvic state had rates of 47% and 95%, respectively. The GAP score is a new pelvic-incidence-based proportional method of analyzing the sagittal plane that predicts mechanical complications in patients undergoing surgery for adult spinal deformity. Setting surgical goals according to the GAP score may decrease the prevalence of mechanical complications.

Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

Predicting the mechanical behaviour of Kevlar/epoxy and carbon/epoxy filament-wound tubes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazeneuve, C.; Joguet, P.; Maile, J. C.; Oytana, C.

1992-11-01

The axial, hoop and shear moduli and failure conditions of carbon/epoxy and Kevlar/epoxy filament-wound tubes have been determined through respective applications of internal pressure, tension and torsion. The introduction in the laminated plate theory of a gradual reduction in individual moduli makes it possible to overcome the limitations of the theory and enables accurate predictions to be made of the linear and non-linear stress/strain curves of 90 deg +/- 0/90 deg tubes. The existence of a dominant layer in the failure of the multilayered tubes has been shown experimentally. When associated with a failure criterion applied to the dominant layer, the new model permits the prediction of tube failure. Agreement between calculated and experimental data is better than 5 percent.

Implicit and Explicit Attitudes Predict Smoking Cessation: Moderating Effects of Experienced Failure to Control Smoking and Plans to Quit

PubMed Central

Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C.; Sherman, Steven J.; Seo, Dong-Chul; Macy, Jon

2010-01-01

The current study tested implicit and explicit attitudes as prospective predictors of smoking cessation in a Midwestern community sample of smokers. Results showed that the effects of attitudes significantly varied with levels of experienced failure to control smoking and plans to quit. Explicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with low (but not high or average) levels of experienced failure to control smoking. Conversely, however, implicit attitudes significantly predicted later cessation among those with high levels of experienced failure to control smoking, but only if they had a plan to quit. Because smoking cessation involves both controlled and automatic processes, interventions may need to consider attitude change interventions that focus on both implicit and explicit attitudes. PMID:21198227

Comparison of clinical and laboratory parameters in patients with end-stage renal failure in the outcome of chronic glomerulonephritis and patients with end-stage renal failure in the outcome of other diseases.

PubMed

Popova, J A; Yadrihinskaya, V N; Krylova, M I; Sleptsovа, S S; Borisovа, N V

frequent complications of hemodialysis treatments are coagulation disorders. This is due to activation of the coagulation of blood flow in the interaction with a dialysis membrane material vascular prostheses and extracorporeal circuit trunks. In addition, in hemodialysis patients receiving heparin for years, there is depletion of stocks in endothelial cells in tissue factor inhibitor, inhibits the activity of an external blood clotting mechanism. the aim of our study was to evaluate the hemostatic system parameters in patients with end-stage renal failure, depending on the cause of renal failure. to evaluate the hemostatic system parameters in patients with end-stage renal failure, depending on the cause of renal failure and hemodialysis treatment duration conducted a study that included 100 patients observed in the department of chronic hemodialysis and nephrology hospital №1 Republican National Medical Center in the period of 2013-2016. in patients with end-stage renal failure in the outcome of chronic glomerulonephritis, a great expression of activation of blood coagulation confirm increased the mean concentration of fibrinogen, whereas in the group, which included patients with end-stage renal failure in the outcome of other diseases, such is not different from the norm, and a higher rate of hyperfibrinogenemia, identified in 2/3 patients in this group. it was revealed that the state of homeostasis in patients with end-stage renal failure in increasingly characterizes the level of fibrinogen and the activation of the hemostatic markers: soluble fibrin monomer complexes, D-dimers.

Metallic ureteral stents in malignant ureteral obstruction: clinical factors predicting stent failure.

PubMed

Chow, Po-Ming; Hsu, Jui-Shan; Huang, Chao-Yuan; Wang, Shuo-Meng; Lee, Yuan-Ju; Huang, Kuo-How; Yu, Hong-Jheng; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Liang, Po-Chin

2014-06-01

To provide clinical outcomes of the Resonance metallic ureteral stent in patients with malignant ureteral obstruction, as well as clinical factors predicting stent failure. Cancer patients who have received Resonance stents from July 2009 to March 2012 for ureteral obstruction were included for chart review. Stent failure was detected by clinical symptoms, image studies, and renal function tests. Survival analysis for stent duration was used to estimate patency rate and factors predicting stent failure. A total of 117 stents were inserted successfully into 94 ureteral units in 79 patients. There were no major complications. These stents underwent survival analysis and proportional hazard regression. The median duration for the stents was 5.77 months. In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.043), preoperative serum creatinine level (P=0.0174), and cancer type (P=0.0494) were significant factors associated with stent failure. Cancer treatment before and after stent insertion had no effect on stent duration. Resonance stents are effective and safe in relieving malignant ureteral obstructions. Old age and high serum creatinine level are predictors for stent failure. Stents in patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers have longer functional duration.

Sonographical predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy.

PubMed

Brik, Maia; Mateos, Silvia; Fernandez-Buhigas, Irene; Garbayo, Paloma; Costa, Gloria; Santacruz, Belen

2017-02-01

Predictive markers of failure of induction of labour in term pregnancy were evaluated. A prospective study including 245 women attending induction of labour was performed. The inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies, gestational age 37-42 weeks and the main outcomes were failure of induction, induction to delivery interval and mode of delivery. Women with a longer cervical length prior to induction (CLpi) had a higher rate of failure of induction (30.9 ± 6.8 vs. 23.9 ± 9.3, p < .001). BMI was higher and maternal height was lower in the group of caesarean section compared to vaginal delivery (33.1 ± 8 vs. 29.3 ± 4.6, 160 ± 5 vs. 164 ± 5, p < .001, respectively). A shorter CLpi correlated with a shorter induction to delivery interval (R Pearson .237, p < .001). In the regression analysis, for failure of induction the only independent predictor was the CL prior to induction. Therefore, the CLpi is an independent factor for prediction of failure of induction of labour.

A new yield and failure theory for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE PAGES

Daniel, Isaac M.; Daniel, Sam M.; Fenner, Joel S.

2017-09-12

In order to facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of composite structures based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new yield/failure theory is proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is based on the equivalent stress concept derived from energy principles and is expressed in terms of a single criterion. It is presented in the formmore » of master yield and failure envelopes incorporating strain rate effects. The theory can be further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive damage of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

A new yield and failure theory for composite materials under static and dynamic loading

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniel, Isaac M.; Daniel, Sam M.; Fenner, Joel S.

In order to facilitate and accelerate the process of introducing, evaluating and adopting new material systems, it is important to develop/establish comprehensive and effective procedures of characterization, modeling and failure prediction of composite structures based on the properties of the constituent materials, e. g., fibers, matrix, and the single ply or lamina. A new yield/failure theory is proposed for predicting lamina yielding and failure under multi-axial states of stress including strain rate effects. It is based on the equivalent stress concept derived from energy principles and is expressed in terms of a single criterion. It is presented in the formmore » of master yield and failure envelopes incorporating strain rate effects. The theory can be further adapted and extended to the prediction of in situ first ply yielding and failure (FPY and FPF) and progressive damage of multi-directional laminates under static and dynamic loadings. The significance of this theory is that it allows for rapid screening of new composite materials without extensive testing and offers easily implemented design tools.« less

Identifying the necessary and sufficient number of risk factors for predicting academic failure.

PubMed

Lucio, Robert; Hunt, Elizabeth; Bornovalova, Marina

2012-03-01

Identifying the point at which individuals become at risk for academic failure (grade point average [GPA] < 2.0) involves an understanding of which and how many factors contribute to poor outcomes. School-related factors appear to be among the many factors that significantly impact academic success or failure. This study focused on 12 school-related factors. Using a thorough 5-step process, we identified which unique risk factors place one at risk for academic failure. Academic engagement, academic expectations, academic self-efficacy, homework completion, school relevance, school safety, teacher relationships (positive relationship), grade retention, school mobility, and school misbehaviors (negative relationship) were uniquely related to GPA even after controlling for all relevant covariates. Next, a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine a cutoff point for determining how many risk factors predict academic failure (GPA < 2.0). Results yielded a cutoff point of 2 risk factors for predicting academic failure, which provides a way for early identification of individuals who are at risk. Further implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

Multiaxial Temperature- and Time-Dependent Failure Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, David; McLennan, Michael; Anderson, Gregory; Macon, David; Batista-Rodriquez, Alicia

2003-01-01

A temperature- and time-dependent mathematical model predicts the conditions for failure of a material subjected to multiaxial stress. The model was initially applied to a filled epoxy below its glass-transition temperature, and is expected to be applicable to other materials, at least below their glass-transition temperatures. The model is justified simply by the fact that it closely approximates the experimentally observed failure behavior of this material: The multiaxiality of the model has been confirmed (see figure) and the model has been shown to be applicable at temperatures from -20 to 115 F (-29 to 46 C) and to predict tensile failures of constant-load and constant-load-rate specimens with failure times ranging from minutes to months..